Evaluation of Cost Leadership Strategy in Shipping Enterprises with Simulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferfeli, Maria V.; Vaxevanou, Anthi Z.; Damianos, Sakas P.

2009-08-01

The present study will attempt the evaluation of cost leadership strategy that prevails in certain shipping enterprises and the creation of simulation models based on strategic model STAIR. The above model is an alternative method of strategic applications evaluation. This is held in order to be realised if the strategy of cost leadership creates competitive advantage [1] and this will be achieved via the technical simulation which appreciates the interactions between the operations of an enterprise and the decision-making strategy in conditions of uncertainty with reduction of undertaken risk.

Evaluating Vertical Moisture Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Contemporary GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, B.; Jiang, X.; Waliser, D. E.

2013-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains a major challenge in our understanding and modeling of the tropical convection and circulation. Many models have troubles in realistically simulating key characteristics of the MJO, such as the strength, period, and eastward propagation. For models that do simulate aspects of the MJO, it remains to be understood what parameters and processes are the most critical in determining the quality of the simulations. This study focuses on the vertical structure of moisture in MJO simulations, with the aim to identify and understand the relationship between MJO simulation qualities and key parameters related to moisture. A series of 20-year simulations conducted by 26 GCMs are analyzed, including four that are coupled to ocean models and two that have a two-dimensional cloud resolving model embedded (i.e., superparameterized). TRMM precipitation and ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to evaluate the model simulations. MJO simulation qualities are evaluated based on pattern correlations of lead/lag regressions of precipitation - a measure of the model representation of the eastward propagating MJO convection. Models with strongest and weakest MJOs (top and bottom quartiles) are compared in terms of differences in moisture content, moisture convergence, moistening rate, and moist static energy. It is found that models with strongest MJOs have better representations of the observed vertical tilt of moisture. Relative importance of convection, advection, boundary layer, and large scale convection/precipitation are discussed in terms of their contribution to the moistening process. The results highlight the overall importance of vertical moisture structure in MJO simulations. The work contributes to the climatological component of the joint WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force and the GEWEX Atmosphere System Study (GASS) global model evaluation project focused on the vertical structure and diabatic processes of the MJO.

Predicting the difficulty of pure, strict, epistatic models: metrics for simulated model selection.

PubMed

Urbanowicz, Ryan J; Kiralis, Jeff; Fisher, Jonathan M; Moore, Jason H

2012-09-26

Algorithms designed to detect complex genetic disease associations are initially evaluated using simulated datasets. Typical evaluations vary constraints that influence the correct detection of underlying models (i.e. number of loci, heritability, and minor allele frequency). Such studies neglect to account for model architecture (i.e. the unique specification and arrangement of penetrance values comprising the genetic model), which alone can influence the detectability of a model. In order to design a simulation study which efficiently takes architecture into account, a reliable metric is needed for model selection. We evaluate three metrics as predictors of relative model detection difficulty derived from previous works: (1) Penetrance table variance (PTV), (2) customized odds ratio (COR), and (3) our own Ease of Detection Measure (EDM), calculated from the penetrance values and respective genotype frequencies of each simulated genetic model. We evaluate the reliability of these metrics across three very different data search algorithms, each with the capacity to detect epistatic interactions. We find that a model's EDM and COR are each stronger predictors of model detection success than heritability. This study formally identifies and evaluates metrics which quantify model detection difficulty. We utilize these metrics to intelligently select models from a population of potential architectures. This allows for an improved simulation study design which accounts for differences in detection difficulty attributed to model architecture. We implement the calculation and utilization of EDM and COR into GAMETES, an algorithm which rapidly and precisely generates pure, strict, n-locus epistatic models.

Piloted Evaluation of an Integrated Methodology for Propulsion and Airframe Control Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bright, Michelle M.; Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay; Mattern, Duane L.; Ranaudo, Richard J.; Odonoghue, Dennis P.

1994-01-01

An integrated methodology for propulsion and airframe control has been developed and evaluated for a Short Take-Off Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft using a fixed base flight simulator at NASA Lewis Research Center. For this evaluation the flight simulator is configured for transition flight using a STOVL aircraft model, a full nonlinear turbofan engine model, simulated cockpit and displays, and pilot effectors. The paper provides a brief description of the simulation models, the flight simulation environment, the displays and symbology, the integrated control design, and the piloted tasks used for control design evaluation. In the simulation, the pilots successfully completed typical transition phase tasks such as combined constant deceleration with flight path tracking, and constant acceleration wave-off maneuvers. The pilot comments of the integrated system performance and the display symbology are discussed and analyzed to identify potential areas of improvement.

Appliance of Independent Component Analysis to System Intrusion Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Yoshikazu; Takagi, Tarou; Nakai, Kouji

In order to analyze the output of the intrusion detection system and the firewall, we evaluated the applicability of ICA(independent component analysis). We developed a simulator for evaluation of intrusion analysis method. The simulator consists of the network model of an information system, the service model and the vulnerability model of each server, and the action model performed on client and intruder. We applied the ICA for analyzing the audit trail of simulated information system. We report the evaluation result of the ICA on intrusion analysis. In the simulated case, ICA separated two attacks correctly, and related an attack and the abnormalities of the normal application produced under the influence of the attach.

Accurate Behavioral Simulator of All-Digital Time-Domain Smart Temperature Sensors by Using SIMULINK

PubMed Central

Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, You-Ting

2016-01-01

This study proposes a new behavioral simulator that uses SIMULINK for all-digital CMOS time-domain smart temperature sensors (TDSTSs) for performing rapid and accurate simulations. Inverter-based TDSTSs offer the benefits of low cost and simple structure for temperature-to-digital conversion and have been developed. Typically, electronic design automation tools, such as HSPICE, are used to simulate TDSTSs for performance evaluations. However, such tools require extremely long simulation time and complex procedures to analyze the results and generate figures. In this paper, we organize simple but accurate equations into a temperature-dependent model (TDM) by which the TDSTSs evaluate temperature behavior. Furthermore, temperature-sensing models of a single CMOS NOT gate were devised using HSPICE simulations. Using the TDM and these temperature-sensing models, a novel simulator in SIMULINK environment was developed to substantially accelerate the simulation and simplify the evaluation procedures. Experiments demonstrated that the simulation results of the proposed simulator have favorable agreement with those obtained from HSPICE simulations, showing that the proposed simulator functions successfully. This is the first behavioral simulator addressing the rapid simulation of TDSTSs. PMID:27509507

Computer Simulation of Human Service Program Evaluations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trochim, William M. K.; Davis, James E.

1985-01-01

Describes uses of computer simulations for the context of human service program evaluation. Presents simple mathematical models for most commonly used human service outcome evaluation designs (pretest-posttest randomized experiment, pretest-posttest nonequivalent groups design, and regression-discontinuity design). Translates models into single…

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System: A Systematic Evaluation Of CORDEX Simulations Using Obs4MIPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, A.; Lee, H.; Waliser, D. E.; Guttowski, W.

2017-12-01

Observation-based evaluations of global climate models (GCMs) have been a key element for identifying systematic model biases that can be targeted for model improvements and for establishing uncertainty associated with projections of global climate change. However, GCMs are limited in their ability to represent physical phenomena which occur on smaller, regional scales, including many types of extreme weather events. In order to help facilitate projections in changes of such phenomena, simulations from regional climate models (RCMs) for 14 different domains around the world are being provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; www.cordex.org). However, although CORDEX specifies standard simulation and archiving protocols, these simulations are conducted independently by individual research and modeling groups representing each of these domains often with different output requirements and data archiving and exchange capabilities. Thus, with respect to similar efforts using GCMs (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP), it is more difficult to achieve a standardized, systematic evaluation of the RCMs for each domain and across all the CORDEX domains. Using the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES; rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov) developed at JPL, we are developing easy to use templates for performing systematic evaluations of CORDEX simulations. Results from the application of a number of evaluation metrics (e.g., biases, centered RMS, and pattern correlations) will be shown for a variety of physical quantities and CORDEX domains. These evaluations are performed using products from obs4MIPs, an activity initiated by DOE and NASA, and now shepherded by the World Climate Research Program's Data Advisory Council.

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in the Global Modeling Initiative 3D Model Simulations of Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2003-01-01

The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), Concept Simulations using Communication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kubat, Greg; Vandrei, Don

2006-01-01

Project Objectives include: a) CNS Model Development; b Design/Integration of baseline set of CNS Models into ACES; c) Implement Enhanced Simulation Capabilities in ACES; d) Design and Integration of Enhanced (2nd set) CNS Models; and e) Continue with CNS Model Integration/Concept evaluations.

A real time Pegasus propulsion system model for VSTOL piloted simulation evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mihaloew, J. R.; Roth, S. P.; Creekmore, R.

1981-01-01

A real time propulsion system modeling technique suitable for use in man-in-the-loop simulator studies was developd. This technique provides the system accuracy, stability, and transient response required for integrated aircraft and propulsion control system studies. A Pegasus-Harrier propulsion system was selected as a baseline for developing mathematical modeling and simulation techniques for VSTOL. Initially, static and dynamic propulsion system characteristics were modeled in detail to form a nonlinear aerothermodynamic digital computer simulation of a Pegasus engine. From this high fidelity simulation, a real time propulsion model was formulated by applying a piece-wise linear state variable methodology. A hydromechanical and water injection control system was also simulated. The real time dynamic model includes the detail and flexibility required for the evaluation of critical control parameters and propulsion component limits over a limited flight envelope. The model was programmed for interfacing with a Harrier aircraft simulation. Typical propulsion system simulation results are presented.

Piloted evaluation of an integrated propulsion and flight control simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bright, Michelle M.; Simon, Donald L.

1992-01-01

This paper describes a piloted evaluation of the integrated flight and propulsion control simulator at NASA Lewis Research Center. The purpose of this evaluation is to demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of this fixed based simulator for advanced integrated propulsion and airframe control design. The evaluation will cover control effector gains and deadbands, control effectiveness and control authority, and heads up display functionality. For this evaluation the flight simulator is configured for transition flight using an advanced Short Take-Off and vertical Landing fighter aircraft model, a simplified high-bypass turbofan engine model, fighter cockpit, displays, and pilot effectors. The paper describes the piloted tasks used for rating displays and control effector gains. Pilot comments and simulation results confirm that the display symbology and control gains are very adequate for the transition flight task. Additionally, it is demonstrated that this small-scale, fixed base flight simulator facility can adequately perform a real time, piloted control evaluation.

Evaluation of WRF Model Against Satellite and Field Measurements During ARM March 2000 IOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

2003-12-01

Meso-scale WRF model is employed to simulate the organization of clouds related with the cyclogenesis occurred during March 1-4, 2000 over ARM SGP CART site. Qualitative comparisons of simulated clouds with GOES8 satellite images show that the WRF model can capture the main features of clouds related with the cyclogenesis. The simulated precipitation patterns also match the Radar reflectivity images well. Further evaluation of the simulated features on GCM grid-scale is conducted against ARM field measurements. The evaluation shows that the evolutions of the simulated state fields such as temperature and moisture, the simulated wind fields and the derived large-scale temperature and moisture tendencies closely follow the observed patterns. These results encourages us to use meso-scale WRF model as a tool to verify the performance of GCMs in simulating cloud feedback processes related with the frontal clouds such that we can test and validate the current cloud parameterizations in climate models, and make possible improvements to different components of current cloud parameterizations in GCMs.

Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seltzer, K. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Murray, L. T.

2017-12-01

Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of the atmosphere. A suite of simulations that varied by model, meteorology, horizontal resolution, emissions inventory, and emissions year were performed, enabling an analysis of metric sensitivities to various model components. All simulations utilized consistent anthropogenic global emissions inventories (ECLIPSE V5a or CEDS), and an evaluation of simulated results were carried out for 2004-2006 and 2009-2011 over the United States and 2014-2015 over China. Results for O3- and PM2.5-based metrics featured minor differences due to the model resolutions considered here (2.0° × 2.5° and 0.5° × 0.666°) and model, meteorology, and emissions inventory each played larger roles in variances. Surface metrics related to O3 were consistently high biased, though to varying degrees, demonstrating the need to evaluate particular modeling frameworks before O3 impacts are quantified. Surface metrics related to PM2.5 were diverse, indicating that a multimodel mean with robust results are valuable tools in predicting PM2.5-related impacts. Oftentimes, the configuration that captured the change of a metric best over time differed from the configuration that captured the magnitude of the same metric best, demonstrating the challenge in skillfully simulating impacts. These results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models in simulating impact metrics related to air quality and near-term climate. With such information, the reliability of historical and future simulations can be better understood.

On the Fidelity of Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model Simulations for Large Scale Catchment Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Application of semi-distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks is a viable alternative to fully distributed hyper-resolution hydrologic models due to computational efficiency and resolving fine-scale spatial structure of hydrologic fluxes and states. However, fidelity of semi-distributed model simulations is impacted by (1) formulation of hydrologic response units (HRUs), and (2) aggregation of catchment properties for formulating simulation elements. Here, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) for large catchment scale simulations. In SMART, topologically connected HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are equivalent cross sections (ECS) representative of a hillslope in first order sub-basins. Earlier investigations have shown that formulation of ECSs at the scale of a first order sub-basin reduces computational time significantly without compromising simulation accuracy. However, the implementation of this approach has not been fully explored for catchment scale simulations. To assess SMART performance, we set-up the model over the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma. Model evaluations using in-situ soil moisture observations show satisfactory model performance. In addition, we evaluated the performance of a number of soil moisture disaggregation schemes recently developed to provide spatially explicit soil moisture outputs at fine scale resolution. Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs significantly better than the methods based on topographic data. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of SMART using remotely sensed soil moisture observations using spatially based model evaluation metrics.

Development of Ku-band rendezvous radar tracking and acquisition simulation programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The fidelity of the Space Shuttle Radar tracking simulation model was improved. The data from the Shuttle Orbiter Radar Test and Evaluation (SORTE) program experiments performed at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) were reviewed and analyzed. The selected flight rendezvous radar data was evaluated. Problems with the Inertial Line-of-Sight (ILOS) angle rate tracker were evaluated using the improved fidelity angle rate tracker simulation model.

Evaluation of Three Models for Simulating Pesticide Runoff from Irrigated Agricultural Fields.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuyang; Goh, Kean S

2015-11-01

Three models were evaluated for their accuracy in simulating pesticide runoff at the edge of agricultural fields: Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM), and OpusCZ. Modeling results on runoff volume, sediment erosion, and pesticide loss were compared with measurements taken from field studies. Models were also compared on their theoretical foundations and ease of use. For runoff events generated by sprinkler irrigation and rainfall, all models performed equally well with small errors in simulating water, sediment, and pesticide runoff. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were between 3 and 161%. For flood irrigation, OpusCZ simulated runoff and pesticide mass with the highest accuracy, followed by RZWQM and PRZM, likely owning to its unique hydrological algorithm for runoff simulations during flood irrigation. Simulation results from cold model runs by OpusCZ and RZWQM using measured values for model inputs matched closely to the observed values. The MAPE ranged from 28 to 384 and 42 to 168% for OpusCZ and RZWQM, respectively. These satisfactory model outputs showed the models' abilities in mimicking reality. Theoretical evaluations indicated that OpusCZ and RZWQM use mechanistic approaches for hydrology simulation, output data on a subdaily time-step, and were able to simulate management practices and subsurface flow via tile drainage. In contrast, PRZM operates at daily time-step and simulates surface runoff using the USDA Soil Conservation Service's curve number method. Among the three models, OpusCZ and RZWQM were suitable for simulating pesticide runoff in semiarid areas where agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over North America: Part II. Evaluation of Column Variable Predictions Using Satellite Data

EPA Science Inventory

Within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 2 (AQMEII2) project, this part II paper performs a multi-model assessment of major column abundances of gases, radiation, aerosol, and cloud variables for 2006 and 2010 simulations with three on...

Influence of boundary conditions to multi-model simulations of ozone and PM2.5 levels over Europe and North America in frame of AQMEII3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Ulas; Hansen, Kaj M.; Geels, Camilla; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

2016-04-01

AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative) promotes research on regional air quality model evaluation across the European and North American atmospheric modelling communities, providing the ideal platform for advancing the evaluation of air quality models at the regional scale. In frame of the AQMEII3 model evaluation exercise, thirteen regional chemistry and transport models have simulated the air pollutant levels over Europe and/or North America for the year 2010, along with various sensitivity simulations of reductions in anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions. All participating groups have performed sensitivity simulation with 20% reductions in global (GLO) anthropogenic emissions. In addition, various groups simulated sensitivity scenarios of 20% reductions in anthropogenic emissions in different HTAP-defined regions such as North America (NAM), Europe (EUR) and East Asia (EAS). The boundary conditions for the base case and the perturbation scenarios were derived from the MOZART-IFS global chemical model. The present study will evaluate the impact of these emission perturbations on regional surface ozone and PM2.5 levels as well as over individual surface measurement stations over both continents and vertical profiles over the radiosonde stations from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations for ozone and for PM2.5, respectively.

Development of a Human Motor Model for the Evaluation of an Integrated Alerting and Notification Flight Deck System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daiker, Ron; Schnell, Thomas

2010-01-01

A human motor model was developed on the basis of performance data that was collected in a flight simulator. The motor model is under consideration as one component of a virtual pilot model for the evaluation of NextGen crew alerting and notification systems in flight decks. This model may be used in a digital Monte Carlo simulation to compare flight deck layout design alternatives. The virtual pilot model is being developed as part of a NASA project to evaluate multiple crews alerting and notification flight deck configurations. Model parameters were derived from empirical distributions of pilot data collected in a flight simulator experiment. The goal of this model is to simulate pilot motor performance in the approach-to-landing task. The unique challenges associated with modeling the complex dynamics of humans interacting with the cockpit environment are discussed, along with the current state and future direction of the model.

Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusion

EPA Science Inventory

This study utilizes simulations for the North American domain from four modeling groups that participated in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) to evaluate seasonal ozone vertical profiles simulated for the year 2010 against ozo...

Embryo transfer simulation improves pregnancy rates and decreases time to proficiency in Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility fellow embryo transfers.

PubMed

Heitmann, Ryan J; Hill, Micah J; Csokmay, John M; Pilgrim, Justin; DeCherney, Alan H; Deering, Shad

2017-05-01

To design and evaluate an ET simulator to train Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility (REI) fellows' techniques of ET. Simulation model development and retrospective cohort analysis. Not applicable. Patients undergoing IVF. Simulation model evaluation and implementation of ET simulation training. Pregnancy rates. The REI fellow and faculty evaluation responses (n = 19/21 [90%]) of the model demonstrated realistic characteristics, with evaluators concluding the model was suitable for training in almost all evaluated areas. A total of 12 REI fellows who performed ET were analyzed: 6 before ET trainer and 6 after ET trainer. Pregnancy rates were 31% in the initial 10 ETs per fellow before simulator vs. 46% after simulator. One of six pre-ET trainer fellows (17%) had pregnancy rates ≥40% in their first 10 ETs; whereas four of six post-ET trainer fellows had pregnancy rates ≥40% in their first 10 ETs. The average number of ETs to obtain >40% pregnancy efficiency was 27 ETs before trainer vs. 15 ETs after trainer. Pregnancy rates were similar in the two groups after 20 ETs, and collective terminal pregnancy rates were >50% after 40 ETs. Embryo transfer simulation improved REI fellow pregnancy rates in their first 10 transfers and led to a more rapid ET proficiency. These data suggest potential value in adopting ET simulation, even in programs with a robust history of live ET in fellowship training. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Simulation modeling of route guidance concept

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The methodology of a simulation model developed at the University of New South Wales, Australia, for the evaluation of performance of Dynamic Route Guidance Systems (DRGS) is described. The microscopic simulation model adopts the event update simulat...

Piloted evaluation of an integrated propulsion and flight control simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bright, Michelle M.; Simon, Donald L.

1992-01-01

A piloted evaluation of the integrated flight and propulsion control simulator for advanced integrated propulsion and airframe control design is described. The evaluation will cover control effector gains and deadbands, control effectiveness and control authority, and heads up display functionality. For this evaluation the flight simulator is configured for transition flight using an advanced Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing fighter aircraft model, a simplified high-bypass turbofan engine model, fighter cockpit displays, and pilot effectors. The piloted tasks used for rating displays and control effector gains are described. Pilot comments and simulation results confirm that the display symbology and control gains are very adequate for the transition flight task. Additionally, it is demonstrated that this small-scale, fixed base flight simulator facility can adequately perform a real time, piloted control evaluation.

Strategy and gaps for modeling, simulation, and control of hybrid systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabiti, Cristian; Garcia, Humberto E.; Hovsapian, Rob

2015-04-01

The purpose of this report is to establish a strategy for modeling and simulation of candidate hybrid energy systems. Modeling and simulation is necessary to design, evaluate, and optimize the system technical and economic performance. Accordingly, this report first establishes the simulation requirements to analysis candidate hybrid systems. Simulation fidelity levels are established based on the temporal scale, real and synthetic data availability or needs, solution accuracy, and output parameters needed to evaluate case-specific figures of merit. Accordingly, the associated computational and co-simulation resources needed are established; including physical models when needed, code assembly and integrated solutions platforms, mathematical solvers,more » and data processing. This report first attempts to describe the figures of merit, systems requirements, and constraints that are necessary and sufficient to characterize the grid and hybrid systems behavior and market interactions. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and effective cost of Effective Cost of Energy (ECE), as opposed to the standard Levelized Cost of Electricty (LCOE), are introduced as technical and economical indices for integrated energy system evaluations. Financial assessment methods are subsequently introduced for evaluation of non-traditional, hybrid energy systems. Algorithms for coupled and iterative evaluation of the technical and economic performance are subsequently discussed. This report further defines modeling objectives, computational tools, solution approaches, and real-time data collection and processing (in some cases using real test units) that will be required to model, co-simulate, and optimize; (a) an energy system components (e.g., power generation unit, chemical process, electricity management unit), (b) system domains (e.g., thermal, electrical or chemical energy generation, conversion, and transport), and (c) systems control modules. Co-simulation of complex, tightly coupled, dynamic energy systems requires multiple simulation tools, potentially developed in several programming languages and resolved on separate time scales. Whereas further investigation and development of hybrid concepts will provide a more complete understanding of the joint computational and physical modeling needs, this report highlights areas in which co-simulation capabilities are warranted. The current development status, quality assurance, availability and maintainability of simulation tools that are currently available for hybrid systems modeling is presented. Existing gaps in the modeling and simulation toolsets and development needs are subsequently discussed. This effort will feed into a broader Roadmap activity for designing, developing, and demonstrating hybrid energy systems.« less

Evaluation of a Multi-Decadal Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone by Comparison with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Steenrod, Steven; Pawson, Steven

2003-01-01

One key application of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is prediction of the response of ozone and other constituents to various natural and anthropogenic perturbations. These include changes in composition, such as the previous rise and recent decline in emission of man-made chlorofluorcarbons, changes in aerosol loading due to volcanic eruption, and changes in solar forcing. Comparisons of hindcast model results for the past few decades with observations are a key element of model evaluation and provide a sense of the reliability of model predictions. The 25 year data set from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers is a cornerstone of such model evaluation. Here we report evaluation of three-dimensional multi-decadal simulation of stratospheric composition. Meteorological fields for this off-line calculation are taken from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model. Model fields are compared with observations from TOMS and also with observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES), and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). This overall evaluation will emphasize the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of the simulation compared with observed atmospheric variability.

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Anagnostou, Eleni; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.; Caballero, Rodrigo; DeConto, Rob; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donnadieu, Yannick; Evans, David; Feng, Ran;

Evaluation of articulation simulation system using artificial maxillectomy models.

PubMed

Elbashti, M E; Hattori, M; Sumita, Y I; Taniguchi, H

2015-09-01

Acoustic evaluation is valuable for guiding the treatment of maxillofacial defects and determining the effectiveness of rehabilitation with an obturator prosthesis. Model simulations are important in terms of pre-surgical planning and pre- and post-operative speech function. This study aimed to evaluate the acoustic characteristics of voice generated by an articulation simulation system using a vocal tract model with or without artificial maxillectomy defects. More specifically, we aimed to establish a speech simulation system for maxillectomy defect models that both surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists can use in guiding treatment planning. Artificially simulated maxillectomy defects were prepared according to Aramany's classification (Classes I-VI) in a three-dimensional vocal tract plaster model of a subject uttering the vowel /a/. Formant and nasalance acoustic data were analysed using Computerized Speech Lab and the Nasometer, respectively. Formants and nasalance of simulated /a/ sounds were successfully detected and analysed. Values of Formants 1 and 2 for the non-defect model were 675.43 and 976.64 Hz, respectively. Median values of Formants 1 and 2 for the defect models were 634.36 and 1026.84 Hz, respectively. Nasalance was 11% in the non-defect model, whereas median nasalance was 28% in the defect models. The results suggest that an articulation simulation system can be used to help surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists to plan post-surgical defects that will be facilitate maxillofacial rehabilitation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of methodology for detecting/predicting migration of forest species

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; William B. Leak

1996-01-01

Available methods for analyzing migration of forest species are evaluated, including simulation models, remeasured plots, resurveys, pollen/vegetation analysis, and age/distance trends. Simulation models have provided some of the most drastic estimates of species changes due to predicted changes in global climate. However, these models require additional testing...

MUSE--Model for University Strategic Evaluation. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutina, Kenneth L.; Zullig, Craig M.; Starkman, Glenn D.; Tanski, Laura E.

A model for simulating college and university operations, finances, program investments, and market response in terms of applicants, acceptances, and retention has been developed and implemented using the system dynamics approach. The Model for University Strategic Evaluation (MUSE) is a simulation of the total operations of the university,…

EVALUATION OF THE AGDISP AERIAL SPRAY ALGORITHMS IN THE AGDRIFT MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic evaluation of the AgDISP algorithms, which simulate off-site drift and deposition of aerially applied pesticides, contained in the AgDRIFT model was performed by comparing model simulations to field-trial data collected by the Spray Drift Task Force. Field-trial data...

Introducing Multisensor Satellite Radiance-Based Evaluation for Regional Earth System Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, T.; Santanello, J.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W.-K.; Wu, D.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kemp, E.; Chin, M.; Starr, D.; Sekiguchi, M.;

Using CONFIG for Simulation of Operation of Water Recovery Subsystems for Advanced Control Software Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Flores, Luis; Fleming, Land; Throop, Daiv

2002-01-01

A hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool, CONFIG, has been developed to support evaluation of the operability life support systems. CON FIG simulates operations scenarios in which flows and pressures change continuously while system reconfigurations occur as discrete events. In simulations, intelligent control software can interact dynamically with hardware system models. CONFIG simulations have been used to evaluate control software and intelligent agents for automating life support systems operations. A CON FIG model of an advanced biological water recovery system has been developed to interact with intelligent control software that is being used in a water system test at NASA Johnson Space Center

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

Research on simulated infrared image utility evaluation using deep representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ruiheng; Mu, Chengpo; Yang, Yu; Xu, Lixin

2018-01-01

Infrared (IR) image simulation is an important data source for various target recognition systems. However, whether simulated IR images could be used as training data for classifiers depends on the features of fidelity and authenticity of simulated IR images. For evaluation of IR image features, a deep-representation-based algorithm is proposed. Being different from conventional methods, which usually adopt a priori knowledge or manually designed feature, the proposed method can extract essential features and quantitatively evaluate the utility of simulated IR images. First, for data preparation, we employ our IR image simulation system to generate large amounts of IR images. Then, we present the evaluation model of simulated IR image, for which an end-to-end IR feature extraction and target detection model based on deep convolutional neural network is designed. At last, the experiments illustrate that our proposed method outperforms other verification algorithms in evaluating simulated IR images. Cross-validation, variable proportion mixed data validation, and simulation process contrast experiments are carried out to evaluate the utility and objectivity of the images generated by our simulation system. The optimum mixing ratio between simulated and real data is 0.2≤γ≤0.3, which is an effective data augmentation method for real IR images.

Methodology to evaluate the performance of simulation models for alternative compiler and operating system configurations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation modelers increasingly require greater flexibility for model implementation on diverse operating systems, and they demand high computational speed for efficient iterative simulations. Additionally, model users may differ in preference for proprietary versus open-source software environment...

An Investigation of the Impact of Aerodynamic Model Fidelity on Close-In Combat Effectiveness Prediction in Piloted Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Persing, T. Ray; Bellish, Christine A.; Brandon, Jay; Kenney, P. Sean; Carzoo, Susan; Buttrill, Catherine; Guenther, Arlene

2005-01-01

Several aircraft airframe modeling approaches are currently being used in the DoD community for acquisition, threat evaluation, training, and other purposes. To date there has been no clear empirical study of the impact of airframe simulation fidelity on piloted real-time aircraft simulation study results, or when use of a particular level of fidelity is indicated. This paper documents a series of piloted simulation studies using three different levels of airframe model fidelity. This study was conducted using the NASA Langley Differential Maneuvering Simulator. Evaluations were conducted with three pilots for scenarios requiring extensive maneuvering of the airplanes during air combat. In many cases, a low-fidelity modified point-mass model may be sufficient to evaluate the combat effectiveness of the aircraft. However, in cases where high angle-of-attack flying qualities and aerodynamic performance are a factor or when precision tracking ability of the aircraft must be represented, use of high-fidelity models is indicated.

“Overview and Evaluation of AQMEII Phase 2 Coupled ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation provides an overview of the second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initative (AQMEII). Activities in this phase are focused on the application and evaluation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models to assess how well these models can simulate the observed spatio-temporal variability in the optical and radiative characteristics of atmospheric aerosols and associated feedbacks among aerosols, radiation, clouds, and precipitation. To this end, these modeling systems are being applied for annual simulations over both North America and Europe using common emissions and boundary conditions for all modeling groups. We present an overview of these common input datasets, observational datasets for model evaluation, and case studies for diagnostic evaluation. In addition to this overview, we also present results from AQMEII Phase 2 WRF/CMAQ simulations over North America for both 2006 and 2010. The time period between 2006 and 2010 was characterized by a 35% reduction in U.S. SO2 emissions and 20% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions, providing an opportunity for dynamic model evaluation by investigating the impact of emission reductions on ambient concentrations as well as aerosol/radiation feedback effects. We present results of this dynamic evaluation. We also present a brief overview of initial results from WRF-Chem and GEM-MACH simulations performed for the same time period and domain as part of AQMEII Phase 2. The National Exposu

New Automotive Air Conditioning System Simulation Tool Developed in MATLAB/Simulink

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiss, T.; Chaney, L.; Meyer, J.

Further improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency require accurate evaluation of the vehicle's transient total power requirement. When operated, the air conditioning (A/C) system is the largest auxiliary load on a vehicle; therefore, accurate evaluation of the load it places on the vehicle's engine and/or energy storage system is especially important. Vehicle simulation software, such as 'Autonomie,' has been used by OEMs to evaluate vehicles' energy performance. A transient A/C simulation tool incorporated into vehicle simulation models would also provide a tool for developing more efficient A/C systems through a thorough consideration of the transient A/C system performance. The dynamic systemmore » simulation software Matlab/Simulink was used to develop new and more efficient vehicle energy system controls. The various modeling methods used for the new simulation tool are described in detail. Comparison with measured data is provided to demonstrate the validity of the model.« less

Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne; Kumar, Sujay; Xie, Shaocheng; Eastman, Joseph L.; Shie, Chung-Lin;

A simulation-based approach for evaluating logging residue handling systems.

Treesearch

B. Bruce Bare; Benjamin A. Jayne; Brian F. Anholt

1976-01-01

Describes a computer simulation model for evaluating logging residue handling systems. The flow of resources is traced through a prespecified combination of operations including yarding, chipping, sorting, loading, transporting, and unloading. The model was used to evaluate the feasibility of converting logging residues to chips that could be used, for example, to...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - evaluation plan : draft report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-13

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation summary for DMA program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Application (DMA) connected vehicle applications and Active Transportation and Demand management (ATDM)...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the Chicago Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation report for ATDM program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and the Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strategies. Specifically,...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation summary for ATDM program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Dynamic Mobility Application (DMA) connected vehicle applications and Active Transportation and Dynamic management (ATDM...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation report for DMA program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-02

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Comparison of AERMOD and CALPUFF models for simulating SO2 concentrations in a gas refinery.

PubMed

Atabi, Farideh; Jafarigol, Farzaneh; Moattar, Faramarz; Nouri, Jafar

2016-09-01

In this study, concentration of SO2 from a gas refinery located in complex terrain was calculated by the steady-state, AERMOD model, and nonsteady-state CALPUFF model. First, in four seasons, SO2 concentrations emitted from 16 refinery stacks, in nine receptors, were obtained by field measurements, and then the performance of both models was evaluated. Then, the simulated results for SO2 ambient concentrations made by each model were compared with the results of the observed concentrations, and model results were compared among themselves. The evaluation of the two models to simulate SO2 concentrations was based on the statistical analysis and Q-Q plots. Review of statistical parameters and Q-Q plots has shown that, according to the evaluation of estimations made, performance of both models to simulate the concentration of SO2 in the region can be considered acceptable. The results showed the AERMOD composite ratio between simulated values made by models and the observed values in various receptors for all four average times is 0.72, whereas CALPUFF's ratio is 0.89. However, in the complex conditions of topography, CALPUFF offers better agreement with the observed concentrations.

Towards Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleckler, P. J.

2014-12-01

The process by which climate models are evaluated has evolved substantially over the past decade, with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) serving as a centralizing activity for coordinating model experimentation and enabling research. Scientists with a broad spectrum of expertise have contributed to the CMIP model evaluation process, resulting in many hundreds of publications that have served as a key resource for the IPCC process. For several reasons, efforts are now underway to further systematize some aspects of the model evaluation process. First, some model evaluation can now be considered routine and should not require "re-inventing the wheel" or a journal publication simply to update results with newer models. Second, the benefit of CMIP research to model development has not been optimal because the publication of results generally takes several years and is usually not reproducible for benchmarking newer model versions. And third, there are now hundreds of model versions and many thousands of simulations, but there is no community-based mechanism for routinely monitoring model performance changes. An important change in the design of CMIP6 can help address these limitations. CMIP6 will include a small set standardized experiments as an ongoing exercise (CMIP "DECK": ongoing Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima), so that modeling groups can submit them at any time and not be overly constrained by deadlines. In this presentation, efforts to establish routine benchmarking of existing and future CMIP simulations will be described. To date, some benchmarking tools have been made available to all CMIP modeling groups to enable them to readily compare with CMIP5 simulations during the model development process. A natural extension of this effort is to make results from all CMIP simulations widely available, including the results from newer models as soon as the simulations become available for research. Making the results from routine performance tests readily accessible will help advance a more transparent model evaluation process.

The use of vestibular models for design and evaluation of flight simulator motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bussolari, Steven R.; Young, Laurence R.; Lee, Alfred T.

1989-01-01

Quantitative models for the dynamics of the human vestibular system are applied to the design and evaluation of flight simulator platform motion. An optimal simulator motion control algorithm is generated to minimize the vector difference between perceived spatial orientation estimated in flight and in simulation. The motion controller has been implemented on the Vertical Motion Simulator at NASA Ames Research Center and evaluated experimentally through measurement of pilot performance and subjective rating during VTOL aircraft simulation. In general, pilot performance in a longitudinal tracking task (formation flight) did not appear to be sensitive to variations in platform motion condition as long as motion was present. However, pilot assessment of motion fidelity by means of a rating scale designed for this purpose, were sensitive to motion controller design. Platform motion generated with the optimal motion controller was found to be generally equivalent to that generated by conventional linear crossfeed washout. The vestibular models are used to evaluate the motion fidelity of transport category aircraft (Boeing 727) simulation in a pilot performance and simulator acceptability study at the Man-Vehicle Systems Research Facility at NASA Ames Research Center. Eighteen airline pilots, currently flying B-727, were given a series of flight scenarios in the simulator under various conditions of simulator motion. The scenarios were chosen to reflect the flight maneuvers that these pilots might expect to be given during a routine pilot proficiency check. Pilot performance and subjective rating of simulator fidelity was relatively insensitive to the motion condition, despite large differences in the amplitude of motion provided. This lack of sensitivity may be explained by means of the vestibular models, which predict little difference in the modeled motion sensations of the pilots when different motion conditions are imposed.

Model-based surgical planning and simulation of cranial base surgery.

PubMed

Abe, M; Tabuchi, K; Goto, M; Uchino, A

1998-11-01

Plastic skull models of seven individual patients were fabricated by stereolithography from three-dimensional data based on computed tomography bone images. Skull models were utilized for neurosurgical planning and simulation in the seven patients with cranial base lesions that were difficult to remove. Surgical approaches and areas of craniotomy were evaluated using the fabricated skull models. In preoperative simulations, hand-made models of the tumors, major vessels and nerves were placed in the skull models. Step-by-step simulation of surgical procedures was performed using actual surgical tools. The advantages of using skull models to plan and simulate cranial base surgery include a better understanding of anatomic relationships, preoperative evaluation of the proposed procedure, increased understanding by the patient and family, and improved educational experiences for residents and other medical staff. The disadvantages of using skull models include the time and cost of making the models. The skull models provide a more realistic tool that is easier to handle than computer-graphic images. Surgical simulation using models facilitates difficult cranial base surgery and may help reduce surgical complications.

Koppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Bonfils, Celine J. W.

2015-06-05

Köppen bioclimatic classification relates generic vegetation types to characteristics of the interactive annual-cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). In addition to predicting possible bioclimatic consequences of past or prospective climate change, a Köppen scheme can be used to pinpoint biases in model simulations of historical T and P. In this study a Köppen evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations of historical climate is conducted for the period 1980–1999. Evaluation of an example CMIP5 model illustrates how errors in simulating Köppen vegetation types (relative to those derived from observational reference data) can be deconstructed and related tomore » model-specific temperature and precipitation biases. Measures of CMIP model skill in simulating the reference Köppen vegetation types are also developed, allowing the bioclimatic performance of a CMIP5 simulation of T and P to be compared quantitatively with its CMIP3 antecedent. Although certain bioclimatic discrepancies persist across model generations, the CMIP5 models collectively display an improved rendering of historical T and P relative to their CMIP3 counterparts. Additionally, the Köppen-based performance metrics are found to be quite insensitive to alternative choices of observational reference data or to differences in model horizontal resolution.« less

Optical laboratory solution and error model simulation of a linear time-varying finite element equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, B. K.; Casasent, D. P.

1989-01-01

The use of simplified error models to accurately simulate and evaluate the performance of an optical linear-algebra processor is described. The optical architecture used to perform banded matrix-vector products is reviewed, along with a linear dynamic finite-element case study. The laboratory hardware and ac-modulation technique used are presented. The individual processor error-source models and their simulator implementation are detailed. Several significant simplifications are introduced to ease the computational requirements and complexity of the simulations. The error models are verified with a laboratory implementation of the processor, and are used to evaluate its potential performance.

Evaluation of DNA Force Fields in Implicit Solvation

PubMed Central

Gaillard, Thomas; Case, David A.

2011-01-01

DNA structural deformations and dynamics are crucial to its interactions in the cell. Theoretical simulations are essential tools to explore the structure, dynamics, and thermodynamics of biomolecules in a systematic way. Molecular mechanics force fields for DNA have benefited from constant improvements during the last decades. Several studies have evaluated and compared available force fields when the solvent is modeled by explicit molecules. On the other hand, few systematic studies have assessed the quality of duplex DNA models when implicit solvation is employed. The interest of an implicit modeling of the solvent consists in the important gain in the simulation performance and conformational sampling speed. In this study, respective influences of the force field and the implicit solvation model choice on DNA simulation quality are evaluated. To this end, extensive implicit solvent duplex DNA simulations are performed, attempting to reach both conformational and sequence diversity convergence. Structural parameters are extracted from simulations and statistically compared to available experimental and explicit solvation simulation data. Our results quantitatively expose the respective strengths and weaknesses of the different DNA force fields and implicit solvation models studied. This work can lead to the suggestion of improvements to current DNA theoretical models. PMID:22043178

A Comparison of Three Approaches to Model Human Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmius, Joel; Persson-Slumpi, Thomas

2010-11-01

One way of studying social processes is through the use of simulations. The use of simulations for this purpose has been established as its own field, social simulations, and has been used for studying a variety of phenomena. A simulation of a social setting can serve as an aid for thinking about that social setting, and for experimenting with different parameters and studying the outcomes caused by them. When using the simulation as an aid for thinking and experimenting, the chosen simulation approach will implicitly steer the simulationist towards thinking in a certain fashion in order to fit the model. To study the implications of model choice on the understanding of a setting where human anticipation comes into play, a simulation scenario of a coffee room was constructed using three different simulation approaches: Cellular Automata, Systems Dynamics and Agent-based modeling. The practical implementations of the models were done in three different simulation packages: Stella for Systems Dynamic, CaFun for Cellular automata and SesAM for Agent-based modeling. The models were evaluated both using Randers' criteria for model evaluation, and through introspection where the authors reflected upon how their understanding of the scenario was steered through the model choice. Further the software used for implementing the simulation models was evaluated, and practical considerations for the choice of software package are listed. It is concluded that the models have very different strengths. The Agent-based modeling approach offers the most intuitive support for thinking about and modeling a social setting where the behavior of the individual is in focus. The Systems Dynamics model would be preferable in situations where populations and large groups would be studied as wholes, but where individual behavior is of less concern. The Cellular Automata models would be preferable where processes need to be studied from the basis of a small set of very simple rules. It is further concluded that in most social simulation settings the Agent-based modeling approach would be the probable choice. This since the other models does not offer much in the way of supporting the modeling of the anticipatory behavior of humans acting in an organization.

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2004-01-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

Simulation model calibration and validation : phase II : development of implementation handbook and short course.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

A previous study developed a procedure for microscopic simulation model calibration and validation and evaluated the procedure via two relatively simple case studies using three microscopic simulation models. Results showed that default parameters we...

An ARM data-oriented diagnostics package to evaluate the climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Xie, S.

2016-12-01

A set of diagnostics that utilize long-term high frequency measurements from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program is developed for evaluating the regional simulation of clouds, radiation and precipitation in climate models. The diagnostics results are computed and visualized automatically in a python-based package that aims to serve as an easy entry point for evaluating climate simulations using the ARM data, as well as the CMIP5 multi-model simulations. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of simulated regional climate. The evaluated physical quantities include vertical profiles of clouds, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, radiative fluxes, aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud and precipitation-related phenomena are developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. Application of the ARM diagnostics package will be presented in the AGU session. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, IM release number is: LLNL-ABS-698645.

Closed loop models for analyzing engineering requirements for simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D.

1980-01-01

A closed loop analytic model, incorporating a model for the human pilot, (namely, the optimal control model) that would allow certain simulation design tradeoffs to be evaluated quantitatively was developed. This model was applied to a realistic flight control problem. The resulting model is used to analyze both overall simulation effects and the effects of individual elements. The results show that, as compared to an ideal continuous simulation, the discrete simulation can result in significant performance and/or workload penalties.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

Mosquito population dynamics from cellular automata-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafarina, Inna; Sadikin, Rifki; Nuraini, Nuning

2016-02-01

In this paper we present an innovative model for simulating mosquito-vector population dynamics. The simulation consist of two stages: demography and dispersal dynamics. For demography simulation, we follow the existing model for modeling a mosquito life cycles. Moreover, we use cellular automata-based model for simulating dispersal of the vector. In simulation, each individual vector is able to move to other grid based on a random walk. Our model is also capable to represent immunity factor for each grid. We simulate the model to evaluate its correctness. Based on the simulations, we can conclude that our model is correct. However, our model need to be improved to find a realistic parameters to match real data.

Simulating forage crop production in a northern climate with the Integrated Farm System Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Whole-farm simulation models are useful tools for evaluating the effect of management practices and climate variability on the agro-environmental and economic performance of farms. A few process-based farm-scale models have been developed, but none have been evaluated in a northern region with a sho...

Evaluation of modeling for groundwater flow and tetrachloroethylene transport in the Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer at the Savage Municipal Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harte, Philip T.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services entered into a cooperative agreement to assist in the evaluation of remedy simulations of the MSGD aquifer that are being performed by various parties to track the remedial progress of the PCE plume. This report summarizes findings from this evaluation. Topics covered include description of groundwater flow and transport models used in the study of the Savage Superfund site (section 2), evaluation of models and their results (section 3), testing of several new simulations (section 4), an assessment of the representation of models to simulate field conditions (section 5), and an assessment of models as a tool in remedial operational decision making (section 6).

A study on the plasticity of soda-lime silica glass via molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Urata, Shingo; Sato, Yosuke

2017-11-07

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were applied to construct a plasticity model, which enables one to simulate deformations of soda-lime silica glass (SLSG) by using continuum methods. To model the plasticity, stress induced by uniaxial and a variety of biaxial deformations was measured by MD simulations. We found that the surfaces of yield and maximum stresses, which are evaluated from the equivalent stress-strain curves, are reasonably represented by the Mohr-Coulomb ellipsoid. Comparing a finite element model using the constructed plasticity model to a large scale atomistic model on a nanoindentation simulation of SLSG reveals that the empirical method is accurate enough to evaluate the SLSG mechanical responses. Furthermore, the effect of ion-exchange on the SLSG plasticity was examined by using MD simulations. As a result, it was demonstrated that the effects of the initial compressive stress on the yield and maximum stresses are anisotropic contrary to our expectations.

A study on the plasticity of soda-lime silica glass via molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Shingo; Sato, Yosuke

2017-11-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were applied to construct a plasticity model, which enables one to simulate deformations of soda-lime silica glass (SLSG) by using continuum methods. To model the plasticity, stress induced by uniaxial and a variety of biaxial deformations was measured by MD simulations. We found that the surfaces of yield and maximum stresses, which are evaluated from the equivalent stress-strain curves, are reasonably represented by the Mohr-Coulomb ellipsoid. Comparing a finite element model using the constructed plasticity model to a large scale atomistic model on a nanoindentation simulation of SLSG reveals that the empirical method is accurate enough to evaluate the SLSG mechanical responses. Furthermore, the effect of ion-exchange on the SLSG plasticity was examined by using MD simulations. As a result, it was demonstrated that the effects of the initial compressive stress on the yield and maximum stresses are anisotropic contrary to our expectations.

A model-data comparison of gross primary productivity: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

Treesearch

Kevin Schaefer; Christopher R. Schwalm; Chris Williams; M. Altaf Arain; Alan Barr; Jing M. Chen; Kenneth J. Davis; Dimitre Dimitrov; Timothy W. Hilton; David Y. Hollinger; Elyn Humphreys; Benjamin Poulter; Brett M. Raczka; Andrew D. Richardson; Alok Sahoo; Peter Thornton; Rodrigo Vargas; Hans Verbeeck; Ryan Anderson; Ian Baker; T. Andrew Black; Paul Bolstad; Jiquan Chen; Peter S. Curtis; Ankur R. Desai; Michael Dietze; Danilo Dragoni; Christopher Gough; Robert F. Grant; Lianhong Gu; Atul Jain; Chris Kucharik; Beverly Law; Shuguang Liu; Erandathie Lokipitiya; Hank A. Margolis; Roser Matamala; J. Harry McCaughey; Russ Monson; J. William Munger; Walter Oechel; Changhui Peng; David T. Price; Dan Ricciuto; William J. Riley; Nigel Roulet; Hanqin Tian; Christina Tonitto; Margaret Torn; Ensheng Weng; Xiaolu Zhou

2012-01-01

Accurately simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystem models is critical because errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model to introduce additional errors in simulated biomass and other fluxes. We evaluated simulated, daily average GPP from 26 models against estimated GPP at 39 eddy covariance flux tower sites across the United States...

Evaluation of Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations Using Satellite Radiance Observations and Multi-Frequency Satellite Simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Olson, William S.; Lang, Stephen

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology known as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Triple-Sensor Three-step Evaluation Framework (T3EF) for the systematic evaluation of precipitating cloud types and microphysics in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). T3EF utilizes multi-frequency satellite simulators and novel statistics of multi-frequency radiance and backscattering signals observed from the TRMM satellite. Specifically, T3EF compares CRM and satellite observations in the form of combined probability distributions of precipitation radar (PR) reflectivity, polarization-corrected microwave brightness temperature (Tb), and infrared Tb to evaluate the candidate CRM. T3EF is used to evaluate the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for cases involving the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). This evaluation reveals that the GCE properly captures the satellite-measured frequencies of different precipitating cloud types in the SCSMEX case but underestimates the frequencies of deep convective and deep stratiform types in the KWAJEX case. Moreover, the GCE tends to simulate excessively large and abundant frozen condensates in deep convective clouds as inferred from the overestimated GCE-simulated radar reflectivities and microwave Tb depressions. Unveiling the detailed errors in the GCE s performance provides the best direction for model improvements.

Clinic Workflow Simulations using Secondary EHR Data

PubMed Central

Hribar, Michelle R.; Biermann, David; Read-Brown, Sarah; Reznick, Leah; Lombardi, Lorinna; Parikh, Mansi; Chamberlain, Winston; Yackel, Thomas R.; Chiang, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Clinicians today face increased patient loads, decreased reimbursements and potential negative productivity impacts of using electronic health records (EHR), but have little guidance on how to improve clinic efficiency. Discrete event simulation models are powerful tools for evaluating clinical workflow and improving efficiency, particularly when they are built from secondary EHR timing data. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that these simulation models can be used for resource allocation decision making as well as for evaluating novel scheduling strategies in outpatient ophthalmology clinics. Key findings from this study are that: 1) secondary use of EHR timestamp data in simulation models represents clinic workflow, 2) simulations provide insight into the best allocation of resources in a clinic, 3) simulations provide critical information for schedule creation and decision making by clinic managers, and 4) simulation models built from EHR data are potentially generalizable. PMID:28269861

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

2013-12-01

Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite difference calculation based on the shallow water theory. The initial wave height for tsunami generation is estimated from the vertical displacement of ocean bottom due to the crustal movements, which is obtained from the ground motion simulation mentioned above. The results of tsunami simulations are compared with the observations of the GPS wave gauges to evaluate the validity for the tsunami prediction using the fault model based on the seismic observation records.

Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, M. G.; Reinmann, J. J.

1991-01-01

A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focussed on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced airfoil aerodynamics is examined.

Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, M. G.; Reinmann, J. J.

1991-01-01

A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focused on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for the increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced aerodynamics is examined.

Performance assessment of geospatial simulation models of land-use change--a landscape metric-based approach.

PubMed

Sakieh, Yousef; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2016-03-01

Performance evaluation is a critical step when developing land-use and cover change (LUCC) models. The present study proposes a spatially explicit model performance evaluation method, adopting a landscape metric-based approach. To quantify GEOMOD model performance, a set of composition- and configuration-based landscape metrics including number of patches, edge density, mean Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, largest patch index, class area, landscape shape index, and splitting index were employed. The model takes advantage of three decision rules including neighborhood effect, persistence of change direction, and urbanization suitability values. According to the results, while class area, largest patch index, and splitting indices demonstrated insignificant differences between spatial pattern of ground truth and simulated layers, there was a considerable inconsistency between simulation results and real dataset in terms of the remaining metrics. Specifically, simulation outputs were simplistic and the model tended to underestimate number of developed patches by producing a more compact landscape. Landscape-metric-based performance evaluation produces more detailed information (compared to conventional indices such as the Kappa index and overall accuracy) on the model's behavior in replicating spatial heterogeneity features of a landscape such as frequency, fragmentation, isolation, and density. Finally, as the main characteristic of the proposed method, landscape metrics employ the maximum potential of observed and simulated layers for a performance evaluation procedure, provide a basis for more robust interpretation of a calibration process, and also deepen modeler insight into the main strengths and pitfalls of a specific land-use change model when simulating a spatiotemporal phenomenon.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed : Draft Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - evaluation summary for the San Diego testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

Evaluation of simulation training in cardiothoracic surgery: the Senior Tour perspective.

PubMed

Fann, James I; Feins, Richard H; Hicks, George L; Nesbitt, Jonathan C; Hammon, John W; Crawford, Fred A

2012-02-01

The study objective was to introduce senior surgeons, referred to as members of the "Senior Tour," to simulation-based learning and evaluate ongoing simulation efforts in cardiothoracic surgery. Thirteen senior cardiothoracic surgeons participated in a 2½-day Senior Tour Meeting. Of 12 simulators, each participant focused on 6 cardiac (small vessel anastomosis, aortic cannulation, cardiopulmonary bypass, aortic valve replacement, mitral valve repair, and aortic root replacement) or 6 thoracic surgical simulators (hilar dissection, esophageal anastomosis, rigid bronchoscopy, video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy, tracheal resection, and sleeve resection). The participants provided critical feedback regarding the realism and utility of the simulators, which served as the basis for a composite assessment of the simulators. All participants acknowledged that simulation may not provide a wholly immersive experience. For small vessel anastomosis, the portable chest model is less realistic compared with the porcine model, but is valuable in teaching anastomosis mechanics. The aortic cannulation model allows multiple cannulations and can serve as a thoracic aortic surgery model. The cardiopulmonary bypass simulator provides crisis management experience. The porcine aortic valve replacement, mitral valve annuloplasty, and aortic root models are realistic and permit standardized training. The hilar dissection model is subject to variability of porcine anatomy and fragility of the vascular structures. The realistic esophageal anastomosis simulator presents various approaches to esophageal anastomosis. The exercise associated with the rigid bronchoscopy model is brief, and adding additional procedures should be considered. The tracheal resection, sleeve resection, and video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy models are highly realistic and simulate advanced maneuvers. By providing the necessary tools, such as task trainers and assessment instruments, the Senior Tour may be one means to enhance simulation-based learning in cardiothoracic surgery. The Senior Tour members can provide regular programmatic evaluation and critical analyses to ensure that proposed simulators are of educational value. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Advances in snow cover distributed modelling via ensemble simulations and assimilation of satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revuelto, J.; Dumont, M.; Tuzet, F.; Vionnet, V.; Lafaysse, M.; Lecourt, G.; Vernay, M.; Morin, S.; Cosme, E.; Six, D.; Rabatel, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays snowpack models show a good capability in simulating the evolution of snow in mountain areas. However singular deviations of meteorological forcing and shortcomings in the modelling of snow physical processes, when accumulated on time along a snow season, could produce large deviations from real snowpack state. The evaluation of these deviations is usually assessed with on-site observations from automatic weather stations. Nevertheless the location of these stations could strongly influence the results of these evaluations since local topography may have a marked influence on snowpack evolution. Despite the evaluation of snowpack models with automatic weather stations usually reveal good results, there exist a lack of large scale evaluations of simulations results on heterogeneous alpine terrain subjected to local topographic effects.This work firstly presents a complete evaluation of the detailed snowpack model Crocus over an extended mountain area, the Arve upper catchment (western European Alps). This catchment has a wide elevation range with a large area above 2000m a.s.l. and/or glaciated. The evaluation compares results obtained with distributed and semi-distributed simulations (the latter nowadays used on the operational forecasting). Daily observations of the snow covered area from MODIS satellite sensor, seasonal glacier surface mass balance evolution measured in more than 65 locations and the galciers annual equilibrium line altitude from Landsat/Spot/Aster satellites, have been used for model evaluation. Additionally the latest advances in producing ensemble snowpack simulations for assimilating satellite reflectance data over extended areas will be presented. These advances comprises the generation of an ensemble of downscaled high-resolution meteorological forcing from meso-scale meteorological models and the application of a particle filter scheme for assimilating satellite observations. Despite the results are prefatory, they show a good potential improving snowpack forecasting capabilities.

Evaluation of NCAR CAM5 Simulated Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Properties Using a Combination of Satellite and Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Song, H.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Dong, X.

2016-12-01

he main objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the MBL cloud properties simulated in CAM5 family models using a combination of satellite-based CloudSat/MODIS observations and ground-based observations from the ARM Azores site, with a special focus on MBL cloud microphysics and warm rain process. First, we will present a global evaluation based on satellite observations and retrievals. We will compare global cloud properties (e.g., cloud fraction, cloud vertical structure, cloud CER, COT, and LWP, as well as drizzle frequency and intensity diagnosed using the CAM5-COSP instrumental simulators) simulated in the CAM5 models with the collocated CloudSat and MODIS observations. We will also present some preliminary results from a regional evaluation based mainly on ground observations from ARM Azores site. We will compare MBL cloud properties simulated in CAM5 models over the ARM Azores site with collocated satellite (MODIS and CloudSat) and ground-based observations from the ARM site.

Sensitivities of simulated satellite views of clouds to subgrid-scale overlap and condensate heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillman, Benjamin R.; Marchand, Roger T.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

Satellite simulators are often used to account for limitations in satellite retrievals of cloud properties in comparisons between models and satellite observations. The purpose of the simulator framework is to enable more robust evaluation of model cloud properties, so that di erences between models and observations can more con dently be attributed to model errors. However, these simulators are subject to uncertainties themselves. A fundamental uncertainty exists in connecting the spatial scales at which cloud properties are retrieved with those at which clouds are simulated in global models. In this study, we create a series of sensitivity tests using 4more » km global model output from the Multiscale Modeling Framework to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated satellite retrievals when applied to climate models whose grid spacing is many tens to hundreds of kilometers. In particular, we examine the impact of cloud and precipitation overlap and of condensate spatial variability. We find the simulated retrievals are sensitive to these assumptions. Specifically, using maximum-random overlap with homogeneous cloud and precipitation condensate, which is often used in global climate models, leads to large errors in MISR and ISCCP-simulated cloud cover and in CloudSat-simulated radar reflectivity. To correct for these errors, an improved treatment of unresolved clouds and precipitation is implemented for use with the simulator framework and is shown to substantially reduce the identified errors.« less

A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the AirQuality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over North America: Part I. Indicators of the Sensitivity of O3 and PM2.5 Formation Regimes

EPA Science Inventory

Under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative, Phase 2 (AQMEII-2), three online coupled air quality model simulations, with six different configurations, are analyzed for their performance, inter-model agreement, and responses to emission and meteorological chan...

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.

Identification and simulation evaluation of an AH-64 helicopter hover math model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, J. A.; Watson, D. C.; Tischler, M. B.; Eshow, M. M.

1991-01-01

Frequency-domain parameter-identification techniques were used to develop a hover mathematical model of the AH-64 Apache helicopter from flight data. The unstable AH-64 bare-airframe characteristics without a stability-augmentation system were parameterized in the convectional stability-derivative form. To improve the model's vertical response, a simple transfer-function model approximating the effects of dynamic inflow was developed. Additional subcomponents of the vehicle were also modeled and simulated, such as a basic engine response for hover and the vehicle stick dynamic characteristics. The model, with and without stability augmentation, was then evaluated by AH-64 pilots in a moving-base simulation. It was the opinion of the pilots that the simulation was a satisfactory representation of the aircraft for the tasks of interest. The principal negative comment was that height control was more difficult in the simulation than in the aircraft.

Monte Carlo simulation of Ray-Scan 64 PET system and performance evaluation using GATE toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Suying; Zhang, Qiushi; Vuletic, Ivan; Xie, Zhaoheng; Yang, Kun; Ren, Qiushi

2017-02-01

In this study, we aimed to develop a GATE model for the simulation of Ray-Scan 64 PET scanner and model its performance characteristics. A detailed implementation of system geometry and physical process were included in the simulation model. Then we modeled the performance characteristics of Ray-Scan 64 PET system for the first time, based on National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) NU-2 2007 protocols and validated the model against experimental measurement, including spatial resolution, sensitivity, counting rates and noise equivalent count rate (NECR). Moreover, an accurate dead time module was investigated to simulate the counting rate performance. Overall results showed reasonable agreement between simulation and experimental data. The validation results showed the reliability and feasibility of the GATE model to evaluate major performance of Ray-Scan 64 PET system. It provided a useful tool for a wide range of research applications.

WWTP dynamic disturbance modelling--an essential module for long-term benchmarking development.

PubMed

Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Jeppsson, U

2006-01-01

Intensive use of the benchmark simulation model No. 1 (BSM1), a protocol for objective comparison of the effectiveness of control strategies in biological nitrogen removal activated sludge plants, has also revealed a number of limitations. Preliminary definitions of the long-term benchmark simulation model No. 1 (BSM1_LT) and the benchmark simulation model No. 2 (BSM2) have been made to extend BSM1 for evaluation of process monitoring methods and plant-wide control strategies, respectively. Influent-related disturbances for BSM1_LT/BSM2 are to be generated with a model, and this paper provides a general overview of the modelling methods used. Typical influent dynamic phenomena generated with the BSM1_LT/BSM2 influent disturbance model, including diurnal, weekend, seasonal and holiday effects, as well as rainfall, are illustrated with simulation results. As a result of the work described in this paper, a proposed influent model/file has been released to the benchmark developers for evaluation purposes. Pending this evaluation, a final BSM1_LT/BSM2 influent disturbance model definition is foreseen. Preliminary simulations with dynamic influent data generated by the influent disturbance model indicate that default BSM1 activated sludge plant control strategies will need extensions for BSM1_LT/BSM2 to efficiently handle 1 year of influent dynamics.

Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, Duane E.; Mattmann, Chris A.; Goodale, Cameron E.; Hart, Andrew F.; Zimdars, Paul A.; Crichton, Daniel J.; Jones, Colin; Nikulin, Grigory; Hewitson, Bruce; Jack, Chris; Lennard, Christopher; Favre, Alice

2014-03-01

Monthly-mean precipitation, mean (TAVG), maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) surface air temperatures, and cloudiness from the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment are evaluated for model skill and systematic biases. All RCMs simulate basic climatological features of these variables reasonably, but systematic biases also occur across these models. All RCMs show higher fidelity in simulating precipitation for the west part of Africa than for the east part, and for the tropics than for northern Sahara. Interannual variation in the wet season rainfall is better simulated for the western Sahel than for the Ethiopian Highlands. RCM skill is higher for TAVG and TMAX than for TMIN, and regionally, for the subtropics than for the tropics. RCM skill in simulating cloudiness is generally lower than for precipitation or temperatures. For all variables, multi-model ensemble (ENS) generally outperforms individual models included in ENS. An overarching conclusion in this study is that some model biases vary systematically for regions, variables, and metrics, posing difficulties in defining a single representative index to measure model fidelity, especially for constructing ENS. This is an important concern in climate change impact assessment studies because most assessment models are run for specific regions/sectors with forcing data derived from model outputs. Thus, model evaluation and ENS construction must be performed separately for regions, variables, and metrics as required by specific analysis and/or assessments. Evaluations using multiple reference datasets reveal that cross-examination, quality control, and uncertainty estimates of reference data are crucial in model evaluations.

Incorporation of a Cumulus Fraction Scheme in the GRAPES_Meso and Evaluation of Its Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, X.

2016-12-01

Accurate simulation of cloud cover fraction is a key and difficult issue in numerical modeling studies. Preliminary evaluations have indicated that cloud fraction is generally underestimated in GRAPES_Meso simulations, while the cloud fraction scheme (CFS) of ECMWF can provide more realistic results. Therefore, the ECMWF cumulus fraction scheme is introduced into GRAPES_Meso to replace the original CFS, and the model performance with the new CFS is evaluated based on simulated three-dimensional cloud fractions and surface temperature. Results indicate that the simulated cloud fractions increase and become more accurate with the new CFS; the simulation for vertical cloud structure has improved too; errors in surface temperature simulation have decreased. The above analysis and results suggest that the new CFS has a positive impact on cloud fraction and surface temperature simulation.

Three-Dimensional Blood Vessel Model with Temperature-Indicating Function for Evaluation of Thermal Damage during Surgery

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takafumi; Arai, Fumihito

2018-01-01

Surgical simulators have recently attracted attention because they enable the evaluation of the surgical skills of medical doctors and the performance of medical devices. However, thermal damage to the human body during surgery is difficult to evaluate using conventional surgical simulators. In this study, we propose a functional surgical model with a temperature-indicating function for the evaluation of thermal damage during surgery. The simulator is made of a composite material of polydimethylsiloxane and a thermochromic dye, which produces an irreversible color change as the temperature increases. Using this material, we fabricated a three-dimensional blood vessel model using the lost-wax process. We succeeded in fabricating a renal vessel model for simulation of catheter ablation. Increases in the temperature of the materials can be measured by image analysis of their color change. The maximum measurement error of the temperature was approximately −1.6 °C/+2.4 °C within the range of 60 °C to 100 °C. PMID:29370139

Simulation of groundwater flow in the glacial aquifer system of northeastern Wisconsin with variable model complexity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juckem, Paul F.; Clark, Brian R.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2017-05-04

The U.S. Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment seeks to map estimated intrinsic susceptibility of the glacial aquifer system of the conterminous United States. Improved understanding of the hydrogeologic characteristics that explain spatial patterns of intrinsic susceptibility, commonly inferred from estimates of groundwater age distributions, is sought so that methods used for the estimation process are properly equipped. An important step beyond identifying relevant hydrogeologic datasets, such as glacial geology maps, is to evaluate how incorporation of these resources into process-based models using differing levels of detail could affect resulting simulations of groundwater age distributions and, thus, estimates of intrinsic susceptibility.This report describes the construction and calibration of three groundwater-flow models of northeastern Wisconsin that were developed with differing levels of complexity to provide a framework for subsequent evaluations of the effects of process-based model complexity on estimations of groundwater age distributions for withdrawal wells and streams. Preliminary assessments, which focused on the effects of model complexity on simulated water levels and base flows in the glacial aquifer system, illustrate that simulation of vertical gradients using multiple model layers improves simulated heads more in low-permeability units than in high-permeability units. Moreover, simulation of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields in coarse-grained and some fine-grained glacial materials produced a larger improvement in simulated water levels in the glacial aquifer system compared with simulation of uniform hydraulic conductivity within zones. The relation between base flows and model complexity was less clear; however, the relation generally seemed to follow a similar pattern as water levels. Although increased model complexity resulted in improved calibrations, future application of the models using simulated particle tracking is anticipated to evaluate if these model design considerations are similarly important for understanding the primary modeling objective - to simulate reasonable groundwater age distributions.

Rotor systems research aircraft simulation mathematical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houck, J. A.; Moore, F. L.; Howlett, J. J.; Pollock, K. S.; Browne, M. M.

1977-01-01

An analytical model developed for evaluating and verifying advanced rotor concepts is discussed. The model was used during in both open loop and real time man-in-the-loop simulation during the rotor systems research aircraft design. Future applications include: pilot training, preflight of test programs, and the evaluation of promising concepts before their implementation on the flight vehicle.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

Technology evaluation, assessment, modeling, and simulation: the TEAMS capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Orgal T.; Stiegler, Robert L.

1998-08-01

The United States Marine Corps' Technology Evaluation, Assessment, Modeling and Simulation (TEAMS) capability, located at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren Virginia, provides an environment for detailed test, evaluation, and assessment of live and simulated sensor and sensor-to-shooter systems for the joint warfare community. Frequent use of modeling and simulation allows for cost effective testing, bench-marking, and evaluation of various levels of sensors and sensor-to-shooter engagements. Interconnectivity to live, instrumented equipment operating in real battle space environments and to remote modeling and simulation facilities participating in advanced distributed simulations (ADS) exercises is available to support a wide- range of situational assessment requirements. TEAMS provides a valuable resource for a variety of users. Engineers, analysts, and other technology developers can use TEAMS to evaluate, assess and analyze tactical relevant phenomenological data on tactical situations. Expeditionary warfare and USMC concept developers can use the facility to support and execute advanced warfighting experiments (AWE) to better assess operational maneuver from the sea (OMFTS) concepts, doctrines, and technology developments. Developers can use the facility to support sensor system hardware, software and algorithm development as well as combat development, acquisition, and engineering processes. Test and evaluation specialists can use the facility to plan, assess, and augment their processes. This paper presents an overview of the TEAMS capability and focuses specifically on the technical challenges associated with the integration of live sensor hardware into a synthetic environment and how those challenges are being met. Existing sensors, recent experiments and facility specifications are featured.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

1991-01-01

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

Modeling Pilot Behavior for Assessing Integrated Alert and Notification Systems on Flight Decks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cover, Mathew; Schnell, Thomas

2010-01-01

Numerous new flight deck configurations for caution, warning, and alerts can be conceived; yet testing them with human-in-the-Ioop experiments to evaluate each one would not be practical. New sensors, instruments, and displays are being put into cockpits every day and this is particularly true as we enter the dawn of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). By modeling pilot behavior in a computer simulation, an unlimited number of unique caution, warning, and alert configurations can be evaluated 24/7 by a computer. These computer simulations can then identify the most promising candidate formats to further evaluate in higher fidelity, but more costly, Human-in-the-Ioop (HITL) simulations. Evaluations using batch simulations with human performance models saves time, money, and enables a broader consideration of possible caution, warning, and alerting configurations for future flight decks.

Biomechanical testing simulation of a cadaver spine specimen: development and evaluation study.

PubMed

Ahn, Hyung Soo; DiAngelo, Denis J

2007-05-15

This article describes a computer model of the cadaver cervical spine specimen and virtual biomechanical testing. To develop a graphics-oriented, multibody model of a cadaver cervical spine and to build a virtual laboratory simulator for the biomechanical testing using physics-based dynamic simulation techniques. Physics-based computer simulations apply the laws of physics to solid bodies with defined material properties. This technique can be used to create a virtual simulator for the biomechanical testing of a human cadaver spine. An accurate virtual model and simulation would complement tissue-based in vitro studies by providing a consistent test bed with minimal variability and by reducing cost. The geometry of cervical vertebrae was created from computed tomography images. Joints linking adjacent vertebrae were modeled as a triple-joint complex, comprised of intervertebral disc joints in the anterior region, 2 facet joints in the posterior region, and the surrounding ligament structure. A virtual laboratory simulation of an in vitro testing protocol was performed to evaluate the model responses during flexion, extension, and lateral bending. For kinematic evaluation, the rotation of motion segment unit, coupling behaviors, and 3-dimensional helical axes of motion were analyzed. The simulation results were in correlation with the findings of in vitro tests and published data. For kinetic evaluation, the forces of the intervertebral discs and facet joints of each segment were determined and visually animated. This methodology produced a realistic visualization of in vitro experiment, and allowed for the analyses of the kinematics and kinetics of the cadaver cervical spine. With graphical illustrations and animation features, this modeling technique has provided vivid and intuitive information.

Participatory ergonomics simulation of hospital work systems: The influence of simulation media on simulation outcome.

PubMed

Andersen, Simone Nyholm; Broberg, Ole

2015-11-01

Current application of work system simulation in participatory ergonomics (PE) design includes a variety of different simulation media. However, the actual influence of the media attributes on the simulation outcome has received less attention. This study investigates two simulation media: full-scale mock-ups and table-top models. The aim is to compare, how the media attributes of fidelity and affordance influence the ergonomics identification and evaluation in PE design of hospital work systems. The results illustrate, how the full-scale mock-ups' high fidelity of room layout and affordance of tool operation support ergonomics identification and evaluation related to the work system entities space and technologies & tools. The table-top models' high fidelity of function relations and affordance of a helicopter view support ergonomics identification and evaluation related to the entity organization. Furthermore, the study addresses the form of the identified and evaluated conditions, being either identified challenges or tangible design criteria. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Space Station communications and tracking systems modeling and RF link simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsang, Chit-Sang; Chie, Chak M.; Lindsey, William C.

1986-01-01

In this final report, the effort spent on Space Station Communications and Tracking System Modeling and RF Link Simulation is described in detail. The effort is mainly divided into three parts: frequency division multiple access (FDMA) system simulation modeling and software implementation; a study on design and evaluation of a functional computerized RF link simulation/analysis system for Space Station; and a study on design and evaluation of simulation system architecture. This report documents the results of these studies. In addition, a separate User's Manual on Space Communications Simulation System (SCSS) (Version 1) documents the software developed for the Space Station FDMA communications system simulation. The final report, SCSS user's manual, and the software located in the NASA JSC system analysis division's VAX 750 computer together serve as the deliverables from LinCom for this project effort.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Trout River Basin at Trout Lake in northern Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Clear Creek Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Clear Creek Basin, near Coralville, Iowa.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Feather River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Feather River Basin, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Cathance Stream Basin, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Cathance Stream Basin, Maine.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Starkweather Coulee Basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Starkweather Coulee Basin near Webster, North Dakota.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sagehen Creek Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Regan, R. Steven

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sagehen Creek Basin near Truckee, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Westenbroek, Steven M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--East River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the East River Basin, Colorado.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Naches River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Naches River Basin below Tieton River in Washington.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Flint River Basin at Montezuma, Georgia.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R2 was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses. PMID:29257117

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China.

PubMed

Li, Zhaofu; Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-12-19

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient ( R ²) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R ² was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses.

Statistical Evaluation of CRM-Simulated Cloud and Precipitation Structures Using Multi- sensor TRMM Measurements and Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posselt, D.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Matsui, T.

2009-05-01

Cloud resolving models are typically used to examine the characteristics of clouds and precipitation and their relationship to radiation and the large-scale circulation. As such, they are not required to reproduce the exact location of each observed convective system, much less each individual cloud. Some of the most relevant information about clouds and precipitation is provided by instruments located on polar-orbiting satellite platforms, but these observations are intermittent "snapshots" in time, making assessment of model performance challenging. In contrast to direct comparison, model results can be evaluated statistically. This avoids the requirement for the model to reproduce the observed systems, while returning valuable information on the performance of the model in a climate-relevant sense. The focus of this talk is a model evaluation study, in which updates to the microphysics scheme used in a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are evaluated using statistics of observed clouds, precipitation, and radiation. We present the results of multiday (non-equilibrium) simulations of organized deep convection using single- and double-moment versions of a the model's cloud microphysical scheme. Statistics of TRMM multi-sensor derived clouds, precipitation, and radiative fluxes are used to evaluate the GCE results, as are simulated TRMM measurements obtained using a sophisticated instrument simulator suite. We present advantages and disadvantages of performing model comparisons in retrieval and measurement space and conclude by motivating the use of data assimilation techniques for analyzing and improving model parameterizations.

Evaluation of the BreastSimulator software platform for breast tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mettivier, G.; Bliznakova, K.; Sechopoulos, I.; Boone, J. M.; Di Lillo, F.; Sarno, A.; Castriconi, R.; Russo, P.

2017-08-01

The aim of this work was the evaluation of the software BreastSimulator, a breast x-ray imaging simulation software, as a tool for the creation of 3D uncompressed breast digital models and for the simulation and the optimization of computed tomography (CT) scanners dedicated to the breast. Eight 3D digital breast phantoms were created with glandular fractions in the range 10%-35%. The models are characterised by different sizes and modelled realistic anatomical features. X-ray CT projections were simulated for a dedicated cone-beam CT scanner and reconstructed with the FDK algorithm. X-ray projection images were simulated for 5 mono-energetic (27, 32, 35, 43 and 51 keV) and 3 poly-energetic x-ray spectra typically employed in current CT scanners dedicated to the breast (49, 60, or 80 kVp). Clinical CT images acquired from two different clinical breast CT scanners were used for comparison purposes. The quantitative evaluation included calculation of the power-law exponent, β, from simulated and real breast tomograms, based on the power spectrum fitted with a function of the spatial frequency, f, of the form S(f)  =  α/f   β . The breast models were validated by comparison against clinical breast CT and published data. We found that the calculated β coefficients were close to that of clinical CT data from a dedicated breast CT scanner and reported data in the literature. In evaluating the software package BreastSimulator to generate breast models suitable for use with breast CT imaging, we found that the breast phantoms produced with the software tool can reproduce the anatomical structure of real breasts, as evaluated by calculating the β exponent from the power spectral analysis of simulated images. As such, this research tool might contribute considerably to the further development, testing and optimisation of breast CT imaging techniques.

Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) dynamics simulator requirements and mathematical specifications, revision 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harman, R.; Blejer, D.

1990-01-01

The requirements and mathematical specifications for the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) Dynamics Simulator are presented. The complete simulator system, which consists of the profie subsystem, simulation control and input/output subsystem, truth model subsystem, onboard computer model subsystem, and postprocessor, is described. The simulator will be used to evaluate and test the attitude determination and control models to be used on board GRO under conditions that simulate the expected in-flight environment.

Development of automation and robotics for space via computer graphic simulation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandez, Ken

1988-01-01

A robot simulation system, has been developed to perform automation and robotics system design studies. The system uses a procedure-oriented solid modeling language to produce a model of the robotic mechanism. The simulator generates the kinematics, inverse kinematics, dynamics, control, and real-time graphic simulations needed to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation examples are presented, including simulation of the Space Station and the design of telerobotics for the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Huang, Lei; Kalashnikova, Olga V.

2016-05-01

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010-2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010-2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. The evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.

Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, James R.

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

“Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system: Assessing the model’s ability to simulate ozone changes due to NOx emission reductions”

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the CMAQv5.0 modeling system during the NOx SIP Call time period indicates that the model underestimates the observed ozone decrease in eastern U.S. Utilizing novel cross simulations we are able to separately quantify the impact on ozone predictions stemmin...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are simulated by the model. We applied spectral decomposition of the ozone time-series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of synoptic (weather-induced variations) and baseline (long-term variation) forcings, embedded in the simulated and observed concentrations. The results reveal that CMAQ captured the year-to-year variability (more so in the later years than the earlier years) and the synoptic forcing in accordance with what the observations are showing. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation: Report of an FDA Public Workshop

PubMed Central

Duan, J; Kesisoglou, F; Novakovic, J; Amidon, GL; Jamei, M; Lukacova, V; Eissing, T; Tsakalozou, E; Zhao, L; Lionberger, R

2017-01-01

On May 19, 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) hosted a public workshop, entitled “Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation.”1 The topic of mechanistic oral absorption modeling, which is one of the major applications of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation, focuses on predicting oral absorption by mechanistically integrating gastrointestinal transit, dissolution, and permeation processes, incorporating systems, active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and the drug product information, into a systemic mathematical whole‐body framework.2 PMID:28571121

Enhanced modeling and simulation of EO/IR sensor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hixson, Jonathan G.; Miller, Brian; May, Christopher

2015-05-01

The testing and evaluation process developed by the Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) Modeling and Simulation Division (MSD) provides end to end systems evaluation, testing, and training of EO/IR sensors. By combining NV-LabCap, the Night Vision Integrated Performance Model (NV-IPM), One Semi-Automated Forces (OneSAF) input sensor file generation, and the Night Vision Image Generator (NVIG) capabilities, NVESD provides confidence to the M&S community that EO/IR sensor developmental and operational testing and evaluation are accurately represented throughout the lifecycle of an EO/IR system. This new process allows for both theoretical and actual sensor testing. A sensor can be theoretically designed in NV-IPM, modeled in NV-IPM, and then seamlessly input into the wargames for operational analysis. After theoretical design, prototype sensors can be measured by using NV-LabCap, then modeled in NV-IPM and input into wargames for further evaluation. The measurement process to high fidelity modeling and simulation can then be repeated again and again throughout the entire life cycle of an EO/IR sensor as needed, to include LRIP, full rate production, and even after Depot Level Maintenance. This is a prototypical example of how an engineering level model and higher level simulations can share models to mutual benefit.

Results from the VALUE perfect predictor experiment: process-based evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Soares, Pedro; Hertig, Elke; Brands, Swen; Huth, Radan; Cardoso, Rita; Kotlarski, Sven; Casado, Maria; Pongracz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

2016-04-01

Until recently, the evaluation of downscaled climate model simulations has typically been limited to surface climatologies, including long term means, spatial variability and extremes. But these aspects are often, at least partly, tuned in regional climate models to match observed climate. The tuning issue is of course particularly relevant for bias corrected regional climate models. In general, a good performance of a model for these aspects in present climate does therefore not imply a good performance in simulating climate change. It is now widely accepted that, to increase our condidence in climate change simulations, it is necessary to evaluate how climate models simulate relevant underlying processes. In other words, it is important to assess whether downscaling does the right for the right reason. Therefore, VALUE has carried out a broad process-based evaluation study based on its perfect predictor experiment simulations: the downscaling methods are driven by ERA-Interim data over the period 1979-2008, reference observations are given by a network of 85 meteorological stations covering all European climates. More than 30 methods participated in the evaluation. In order to compare statistical and dynamical methods, only variables provided by both types of approaches could be considered. This limited the analysis to conditioning local surface variables on variables from driving processes that are simulated by ERA-Interim. We considered the following types of processes: at the continental scale, we evaluated the performance of downscaling methods for positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic ridge and blocking situations. At synoptic scales, we considered Lamb weather types for selected European regions such as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom, the Iberian Pensinsula or the Alps. At regional scales we considered phenomena such as the Mistral, the Bora or the Iberian coastal jet. Such process-based evaluation helps to attribute biases in surface variables to underlying processes and ultimately to improve climate models.

Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Wheat-Fallow Cropping Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural system simulation models are predictive tools for assessing climate change impacts on crop production. In this study, RZWQM2 that contains the DSSAT 4.0-CERES model was evaluated for simulating climate change impacts on wheat growth. The model was calibrated and validated using data fro...

Dynamic simulation of perturbation responses in a closed-loop virtual arm model.

PubMed

Du, Yu-Fan; He, Xin; Lan, Ning

2010-01-01

A closed-loop virtual arm (VA) model has been developed in SIMULINK environment by adding spinal reflex circuits and propriospinal neural networks to the open-loop VA model developed in early study [1]. An improved virtual muscle model (VM4.0) is used to speed up simulation and to generate more precise recruitment of muscle force at low levels of muscle activation. Time delays in the reflex loops are determined by their synaptic connections and afferent transmission back to the spinal cord. Reflex gains are properly selected so that closed-loop responses are stable. With the closed-loop VA model, we are developing an approach to evaluate system behaviors by dynamic simulation of perturbation responses. Joint stiffness is calculated based on simulated perturbation responses by a least-squares algorithm in MATLAB. This method of dynamic simulation will be essential for further evaluation of feedforward and reflex control of arm movement and position.

SOURCE APPORTIONMENT OF EXPOSURES TO VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS: I. EVALUATION OF RECEPTOR MODELS USING SIMULATED EXPOSURE DATA. (R826788)

EPA Science Inventory

Four receptor-oriented source apportionment models were evaluated by applying them to simulated personal exposure data for select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that were generated by Monte Carlo sampling from known source contributions and profiles. The exposure sources mo...

The OSSE Framework at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, I.; Prive, N.; McCarty, W.; Errico, R. M.; Gelaro, R.

2017-12-01

This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

The OSSE Framework at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Prive, Nikki; McCarty, Will; Errico, Ronald M.; Gelaro, Ron

2017-01-01

This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.

Using Computer Simulations for Promoting Model-based Reasoning. Epistemological and Educational Dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Develaki, Maria

2017-11-01

Scientific reasoning is particularly pertinent to science education since it is closely related to the content and methodologies of science and contributes to scientific literacy. Much of the research in science education investigates the appropriate framework and teaching methods and tools needed to promote students' ability to reason and evaluate in a scientific way. This paper aims (a) to contribute to an extended understanding of the nature and pedagogical importance of model-based reasoning and (b) to exemplify how using computer simulations can support students' model-based reasoning. We provide first a background for both scientific reasoning and computer simulations, based on the relevant philosophical views and the related educational discussion. This background suggests that the model-based framework provides an epistemologically valid and pedagogically appropriate basis for teaching scientific reasoning and for helping students develop sounder reasoning and decision-taking abilities and explains how using computer simulations can foster these abilities. We then provide some examples illustrating the use of computer simulations to support model-based reasoning and evaluation activities in the classroom. The examples reflect the procedure and criteria for evaluating models in science and demonstrate the educational advantages of their application in classroom reasoning activities.

A lava flow simulation model for the development of volcanic hazard maps for Mount Etna (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, M. L.; Groppelli, G.; Norini, G.; Bertino, E.; Gigliuto, A.; Nucita, A.

2006-05-01

Volcanic hazard assessment is of paramount importance for the safeguard of the resources exposed to volcanic hazards. In the paper we present ELFM, a lava flow simulation model for the evaluation of the lava flow hazard on Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), the most important active volcano in Europe. The major contributions of the paper are: (a) a detailed specification of the lava flow simulation model and the specification of an algorithm implementing it; (b) the definition of a methodological framework for applying the model to the specific volcano. For what concerns the former issue, we propose an extended version of an existing stochastic model that has been applied so far only to the assessment of the volcanic hazard on Lanzarote and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Concerning the methodological framework, we claim model validation is definitely needed for assessing the effectiveness of the lava flow simulation model. To that extent a strategy has been devised for the generation of simulation experiments and evaluation of their outcomes.

Surgical stent planning: simulation parameter study for models based on DICOM standards.

PubMed

Scherer, S; Treichel, T; Ritter, N; Triebel, G; Drossel, W G; Burgert, O

2011-05-01

Endovascular Aneurysm Repair (EVAR) can be facilitated by a realistic simulation model of stent-vessel-interaction. Therefore, numerical feasibility and integrability in the clinical environment was evaluated. The finite element method was used to determine necessary simulation parameters for stent-vessel-interaction in EVAR. Input variables and result data of the simulation model were examined for their standardization using DICOM supplements. The study identified four essential parameters for the stent-vessel simulation: blood pressure, intima constitution, plaque occurrence and the material properties of vessel and plaque. Output quantities such as radial force of the stent and contact pressure between stent/vessel can help the surgeon to evaluate implant fixation and sealing. The model geometry can be saved with DICOM "Surface Segmentation" objects and the upcoming "Implant Templates" supplement. Simulation results can be stored using the "Structured Report". A standards-based general simulation model for optimizing stent-graft selection may be feasible. At present, there are limitations due to specification of individual vessel material parameters and for simulating the proximal fixation of stent-grafts with hooks. Simulation data with clinical relevance for documentation and presentation can be stored using existing or new DICOM extensions.

Simulation of atmospheric oxidation capacity in Houston, Texas

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality model simulations are performed and evaluated for Houston using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The simulations use two different emissions estimates: the EPA 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality ...

Real time digital propulsion system simulation for manned flight simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mihaloew, J. R.; Hart, C. E.

1978-01-01

A real time digital simulation of a STOL propulsion system was developed which generates significant dynamics and internal variables needed to evaluate system performance and aircraft interactions using manned flight simulators. The simulation ran at a real-to-execution time ratio of 8.8. The model was used in a piloted NASA flight simulator program to evaluate the simulation technique and the propulsion system digital control. The simulation is described and results shown. Limited results of the flight simulation program are also presented.

Large eddy simulation of transitional flow in an idealized stenotic blood vessel: evaluation of subgrid scale models.

PubMed

Pal, Abhro; Anupindi, Kameswararao; Delorme, Yann; Ghaisas, Niranjan; Shetty, Dinesh A; Frankel, Steven H

2014-07-01

In the present study, we performed large eddy simulation (LES) of axisymmetric, and 75% stenosed, eccentric arterial models with steady inflow conditions at a Reynolds number of 1000. The results obtained are compared with the direct numerical simulation (DNS) data (Varghese et al., 2007, "Direct Numerical Simulation of Stenotic Flows. Part 1. Steady Flow," J. Fluid Mech., 582, pp. 253-280). An inhouse code (WenoHemo) employing high-order numerical methods for spatial and temporal terms, along with a 2nd order accurate ghost point immersed boundary method (IBM) (Mark, and Vanwachem, 2008, "Derivation and Validation of a Novel Implicit Second-Order Accurate Immersed Boundary Method," J. Comput. Phys., 227(13), pp. 6660-6680) for enforcing boundary conditions on curved geometries is used for simulations. Three subgrid scale (SGS) models, namely, the classical Smagorinsky model (Smagorinsky, 1963, "General Circulation Experiments With the Primitive Equations," Mon. Weather Rev., 91(10), pp. 99-164), recently developed Vreman model (Vreman, 2004, "An Eddy-Viscosity Subgrid-Scale Model for Turbulent Shear Flow: Algebraic Theory and Applications," Phys. Fluids, 16(10), pp. 3670-3681), and the Sigma model (Nicoud et al., 2011, "Using Singular Values to Build a Subgrid-Scale Model for Large Eddy Simulations," Phys. Fluids, 23(8), 085106) are evaluated in the present study. Evaluation of SGS models suggests that the classical constant coefficient Smagorinsky model gives best agreement with the DNS data, whereas the Vreman and Sigma models predict an early transition to turbulence in the poststenotic region. Supplementary simulations are performed using Open source field operation and manipulation (OpenFOAM) ("OpenFOAM," http://www.openfoam.org/) solver and the results are inline with those obtained with WenoHemo.

The NASA Lewis integrated propulsion and flight control simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bright, Michelle M.; Simon, Donald L.

1991-01-01

A new flight simulation facility was developed at NASA-Lewis. The purpose of this flight simulator is to allow integrated propulsion control and flight control algorithm development and evaluation in real time. As a preliminary check of the simulator facility capabilities and correct integration of its components, the control design and physics models for a short take-off and vertical landing fighter aircraft model were shown, with their associated system integration and architecture, pilot vehicle interfaces, and display symbology. The initial testing and evaluation results show that this fixed based flight simulator can provide real time feedback and display of both airframe and propulsion variables for validation of integrated flight and propulsion control systems. Additionally, through the use of this flight simulator, various control design methodologies and cockpit mechanizations can be tested and evaluated in a real time environment.

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — evaluation report for ATDM program. [supporting datasets - Pasadena Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-26

This zip file contains POSTDATA.ATT (.ATT); Print to File (.PRN); Portable Document Format (.PDF); and document (.DOCX) files of data to support FHWA-JPO-16-385, Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support d...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs : Evaluation Report for the San Diego Testbed : Draft Report. [supporting datasets - San Diego

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2013-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

The MSFC UNIVAC 1108 EXEC 8 simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, T. G.; Richards, F. M.; Weatherbee, J. E.; Paul, L. K.

1972-01-01

A model is presented which simulates the MSFC Univac 1108 multiprocessor system. The hardware/operating system is described to enable a good statistical measurement of the system behavior. The performance of the 1108 is evaluated by performing twenty-four different experiments designed to locate system bottlenecks and also to test the sensitivity of system throughput with respect to perturbation of the various Exec 8 scheduling algorithms. The model is implemented in the general purpose system simulation language and the techniques described can be used to assist in the design, development, and evaluation of multiprocessor systems.

Benchmark simulation Model no 2 in Matlab-simulink: towards plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation.

PubMed

Vreck, D; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Jeppsson, U

2006-01-01

In this paper, implementation of the Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2) within Matlab-Simulink is presented. The BSM2 is developed for plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation on a long-term basis. It consists of a pre-treatment process, an activated sludge process and sludge treatment processes. Extended evaluation criteria are proposed for plant-wide control strategy assessment. Default open-loop and closed-loop strategies are also proposed to be used as references with which to compare other control strategies. Simulations indicate that the BM2 is an appropriate tool for plant-wide control strategy evaluation.

Aerodynamics Model for a Generic ASTOVL Lift-Fan Aircraft

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-04-01

This report describes the aerodynamics model used in a simulation model of : an advanced short takeoff and vertical landing lift-far fighter aircraft. The : simulation model was developed for use in piloted evaluations of transition and : hover fligh...

Modeling the Blast Load Simulator Airblast Environment using First Principles Codes. Report 1, Blast Load Simulator Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

ER D C/ G SL T R- 16 -3 1 Modeling the Blast Load Simulator Airblast Environment Using First Principles Codes Report 1, Blast Load...Simulator Airblast Environment using First Principles Codes Report 1, Blast Load Simulator Environment Gregory C. Bessette, James L. O’Daniel...evaluate several first principles codes (FPCs) for modeling airblast environments typical of those encountered in the BLS. The FPCs considered were

An evaluation of 3-D traffic simulation modeling capabilities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-06-01

The use of 3D modeling in simulation has become the standard for both the military and private sector. Compared to physical models, 3D models are more affordable, more flexible, and can incorporate complex operations. Unlike a physical model, a dynam...

An efficient soil water balance model based on hybrid numerical and statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Wei; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan; Ye, Ming; Liu, Zhao; Wu, Jingwei

2018-04-01

Most soil water balance models only consider downward soil water movement driven by gravitational potential, and thus cannot simulate upward soil water movement driven by evapotranspiration especially in agricultural areas. In addition, the models cannot be used for simulating soil water movement in heterogeneous soils, and usually require many empirical parameters. To resolve these problems, this study derives a new one-dimensional water balance model for simulating both downward and upward soil water movement in heterogeneous unsaturated zones. The new model is based on a hybrid of numerical and statistical methods, and only requires four physical parameters. The model uses three governing equations to consider three terms that impact soil water movement, including the advective term driven by gravitational potential, the source/sink term driven by external forces (e.g., evapotranspiration), and the diffusive term driven by matric potential. The three governing equations are solved separately by using the hybrid numerical and statistical methods (e.g., linear regression method) that consider soil heterogeneity. The four soil hydraulic parameters required by the new models are as follows: saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated water content, field capacity, and residual water content. The strength and weakness of the new model are evaluated by using two published studies, three hypothetical examples and a real-world application. The evaluation is performed by comparing the simulation results of the new model with corresponding results presented in the published studies, obtained using HYDRUS-1D and observation data. The evaluation indicates that the new model is accurate and efficient for simulating upward soil water flow in heterogeneous soils with complex boundary conditions. The new model is used for evaluating different drainage functions, and the square drainage function and the power drainage function are recommended. Computational efficiency of the new model makes it particularly suitable for large-scale simulation of soil water movement, because the new model can be used with coarse discretization in space and time.

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Yang, J.; Franklin, J.; He, H.S.; Keeley, J.E.

2007-01-01

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fabrication and evaluation of novel rabbit model cardiovascular simulator with 3D printer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Min; Lee, Min-Woo; Seo, See-Yoon; Shin, Sang-Hoon

2017-03-01

Simulators allow researchers to study the hemodynamics of the cardiovascular system in a reproducible way without using complicated equations. Previous simulators focused on heart functions. However, a detailed model of the vessels is required to replicate the pulse wave of the arterial system. A computer simulation was used to simplify the arterial branch because producing every small artery is neither possible nor necessary. A 3D-printed zig was used to make a hand-made arterial tree. The simulator that was developed was evaluated by comparing its results to in-vivo data, in terms of the hemodynamic parameters (waveform, augmentation index, impedance, etc.) that were measured at three points: the ascending aorta, the thoracic aorta, and the brachiocephalic artery. The results from the simulator showed good agreement with the in-vivo data. Therefore, this simulator can be used as a research tool for the cardiovascular study of animal models, specifically rabbits.

Development and evaluation of a calibration and validation procedure for microscopic simulation models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Microscopic traffic simulation models have been widely accepted and applied in transportation engineering and planning practice for the past decades because simulation is cost-effective, safe, and fast. To achieve high fidelity and credibility for a ...

Simulations and Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the mesoscale convective systems (MCS) produce more than 50% of rainfall in most tropical regions and play important roles in regional and global water cycles. Simulation of MCSs in global and climate models is a very challenging problem. Typical MCSs have horizontal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Models with a domain of several hundred kilometers and fine enough resolution to properly simulate individual clouds are required to realistically simulate MCSs. The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has shown some capabilities of simulating organized MCS-like storm signals and propagations. However, its embedded CRMs typically have small domain (less than 128 km) and coarse resolution ( 4 km) that cannot realistically simulate MCSs and individual clouds. In this study, a series of simulations were performed using the Goddard MMF. The impacts of the domain size and model grid resolution of the embedded CRMs on simulating MCSs are examined. The changes of cloud structure, occurrence, and properties such as cloud types, updraft and downdraft, latent heating profile, and cold pool strength in the embedded CRMs are examined in details. The simulated MCS characteristics are evaluated against satellite measurements using the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. The results indicate that embedded CRMs with large domain and fine resolution tend to produce better simulations compared to those simulations with typical MMF configuration (128 km domain size and 4 km model grid spacing).

Evaluation of a subject-specific, torque-driven computer simulation model of one-handed tennis backhand groundstrokes.

PubMed

Kentel, Behzat B; King, Mark A; Mitchell, Sean R

2011-11-01

A torque-driven, subject-specific 3-D computer simulation model of the impact phase of one-handed tennis backhand strokes was evaluated by comparing performance and simulation results. Backhand strokes of an elite subject were recorded on an artificial tennis court. Over the 50-ms period after impact, good agreement was found with an overall RMS difference of 3.3° between matching simulation and performance in terms of joint and racket angles. Consistent with previous experimental research, the evaluation process showed that grip tightness and ball impact location are important factors that affect postimpact racket and arm kinematics. Associated with these factors, the model can be used for a better understanding of the eccentric contraction of the wrist extensors during one-handed backhand ground strokes, a hypothesized mechanism of tennis elbow.

Using manufacturing simulators to evaluate important processing decisions in the furniture and cabinet industries

Treesearch

Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

1995-01-01

We've been telling the wood industry about our process simulation modeling research and development work for several years. We've demonstrated our crosscut-first and rip-first rough mill simulation and animation models. Weâve advised companies on how they could use simulation modeling to help make critically important, pending decisions related to mill layout...

Visualizing ultrasound through computational modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Theresa W.

2004-01-01

The Doppler Ultrasound Hematocrit Project (DHP) hopes to find non-invasive methods of determining a person s blood characteristics. Because of the limits of microgravity and the space travel environment, it is important to find non-invasive methods of evaluating the health of persons in space. Presently, there is no well developed method of determining blood composition non-invasively. This projects hopes to use ultrasound and Doppler signals to evaluate the characteristic of hematocrit, the percentage by volume of red blood cells within whole blood. These non-invasive techniques may also be developed to be used on earth for trauma patients where invasive measure might be detrimental. Computational modeling is a useful tool for collecting preliminary information and predictions for the laboratory research. We hope to find and develop a computer program that will be able to simulate the ultrasound signals the project will work with. Simulated models of test conditions will more easily show what might be expected from laboratory results thus help the research group make informed decisions before and during experimentation. There are several existing Matlab based computer programs available, designed to interpret and simulate ultrasound signals. These programs will be evaluated to find which is best suited for the project needs. The criteria of evaluation that will be used are 1) the program must be able to specify transducer properties and specify transmitting and receiving signals, 2) the program must be able to simulate ultrasound signals through different attenuating mediums, 3) the program must be able to process moving targets in order to simulate the Doppler effects that are associated with blood flow, 4) the program should be user friendly and adaptable to various models. After a computer program is chosen, two simulation models will be constructed. These models will simulate and interpret an RF data signal and a Doppler signal.

The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Fabian, M Patricia; Stout, Natasha K; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Geggel, Amelia; Ren, Cizao; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan I

2012-09-18

In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma.

The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma. PMID:22989068

A Simulation Tool for Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI

PubMed Central

Mauconduit, Franck; Christen, Thomas; Barbier, Emmanuel Luc

2013-01-01

The quantification of bolus-tracking MRI techniques remains challenging. The acquisition usually relies on one contrast and the analysis on a simplified model of the various phenomena that arise within a voxel, leading to inaccurate perfusion estimates. To evaluate how simplifications in the interstitial model impact perfusion estimates, we propose a numerical tool to simulate the MR signal provided by a dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI experiment. Our model encompasses the intrinsic and relaxations, the magnetic field perturbations induced by susceptibility interfaces (vessels and cells), the diffusion of the water protons, the blood flow, the permeability of the vessel wall to the the contrast agent (CA) and the constrained diffusion of the CA within the voxel. The blood compartment is modeled as a uniform compartment. The different blocks of the simulation are validated and compared to classical models. The impact of the CA diffusivity on the permeability and blood volume estimates is evaluated. Simulations demonstrate that the CA diffusivity slightly impacts the permeability estimates ( for classical blood flow and CA diffusion). The effect of long echo times is investigated. Simulations show that DCE-MRI performed with an echo time may already lead to significant underestimation of the blood volume (up to 30% lower for brain tumor permeability values). The potential and the versatility of the proposed implementation are evaluated by running the simulation with realistic vascular geometry obtained from two photons microscopy and with impermeable cells in the extravascular environment. In conclusion, the proposed simulation tool describes DCE-MRI experiments and may be used to evaluate and optimize acquisition and processing strategies. PMID:23516414

An Intercomparison and Evaluation of Aircraft-Derived and Simulated CO from Seven Chemical Transport Models During the TRACE-P Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiley, C. M.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Palmer, P. I.; Allen, D. J.; Carmichael, G. R.; Jacob, D. J.; Mari, C.; Pierce, R. B.; Pickering, K. E.; Tang, Y.

2002-01-01

Four global scale and three regional scale chemical transport models are intercompared and evaluated during NASA's TRACE-P experiment. Model simulated and measured CO are statistically analyzed along aircraft flight tracks. Results for the combination of eleven flights show an overall negative bias in simulated CO. Biases are most pronounced during large CO events. Statistical agreements vary greatly among the individual flights. Those flights with the greatest range of CO values tend to be the worst simulated. However, for each given flight, the models generally provide similar relative results. The models exhibit difficulties simulating intense CO plumes. CO error is found to be greatest in the lower troposphere. Convective mass flux is shown to be very important, particularly near emissions source regions. Occasionally meteorological lift associated with excessive model-calculated mass fluxes leads to an overestimation of mid- and upper- tropospheric mixing ratios. Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth is found to play an important role in simulating intense CO plumes. PBL depth is shown to cap plumes, confining heavy pollution to the very lowest levels.

Coupling model of aerobic waste degradation considering temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Liu, Lei; Ge, Sai; Xue, Qiang; Li, Jiangshan; Wan, Yong; Hui, Xinminnan

2018-03-01

A quantitative description of aerobic waste degradation is important in evaluating landfill waste stability and economic management. This research aimed to develop a coupling model to predict the degree of aerobic waste degradation. On the basis of the first-order kinetic equation and the law of conservation of mass, we first developed the coupling model of aerobic waste degradation that considered temperature, initial moisture content and air injection volume to simulate and predict the chemical oxygen demand in the leachate. Three different laboratory experiments on aerobic waste degradation were simulated to test the model applicability. Parameter sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the reliability of parameters. The coupling model can simulate aerobic waste degradation, and the obtained simulation agreed with the corresponding results of the experiment. Comparison of the experiment and simulation demonstrated that the coupling model is a new approach to predict aerobic waste degradation and can be considered as the basis for selecting the economic air injection volume and appropriate management in the future.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - AMS Testbed Detailed Requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-20

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Chicago testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Evaluation of CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton for simulating effects of management and climate change on cotton growth and evapotranspiration in an arid environment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Originally developed for simulating soybean growth and development, the CROPGRO model was recently re-parameterized for cotton. However, further efforts are necessary to evaluate the model's performance against field measurements for new environments and management options. The objective of this stu...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - San Diego calibration report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : summary report for the Chicago testbed.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds and transportation models to evaluate the impacts of Connected Vehicle Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) strateg...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — Chicago calibration report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Pasadena testbed analysis plan : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-30

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - San Diego testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - AMS Testbed Selection Criteria

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : Dallas testbed analysis plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-16

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate theimpacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM)strategies. The outputs (mo...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - Pasadena calibration report : draft report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active transportation and demand management (ATDM) strategies. The primary pu...

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

Treesearch

Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

2012-01-01

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

An integrated approach to evaluate policies for controlling traffic law violations.

PubMed

Mehmood, Arif

2010-03-01

Modeling dynamics of the driver behavior is a complex problem. In this paper a system approach is introduced to model and to analyze the driver behavior related to traffic law violations in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. This paper demonstrates how the theoretical relationships between different factors can be expressed formally, and how the resulting model can assist in evaluating potential benefits of various policies to control the traffic law violations Using system approach, an integrated dynamic simulation model is developed, and model is tested to simulate the driver behavior for violating traffic laws during 2002-2007 in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The dynamic simulation model attempts to address the questions: (1) "what" interventions should be implemented to reduce and eventually control traffic violations which will lead to improving road safety and (2) "how" to justify those interventions will be effective or ineffective to control the violations in different transportation conditions. The simulation results reveal promising capability of applying system approach in the policy evaluation studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models.

PubMed

Cevik, Mucahit; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Stout, Natasha K; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan

2016-07-01

Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality, and their values are typically estimated via a lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating a large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We developed an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs and therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using the previously developed University of Wisconsin breast cancer simulation model (UWBCS). In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378 000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model, and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378 000 combinations. Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. © The Author(s) 2015.

Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models

PubMed Central

Cevik, Mucahit; Ali Ergun, Mehmet; Stout, Natasha K.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan

2015-01-01

Background Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine the disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality and their values are typically estimated via lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Methods Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We develop an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs, therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using previously developed University of Wisconsin Breast Cancer Simulation Model (UWBCS). Results In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378,000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378,000 combinations. Conclusion Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. PMID:26471190

Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.

2011-12-24

Previous studies using the Community Land Model (CLM) focused on simulating landatmosphere interactions and water balance at continental to global scales, with limited attention paid to its capability for hydrologic simulations at watershed or regional scales. This study evaluates the performance of CLM 4.0 (CLM4) for hydrologic simulations, and explores possible directions of improvement. Specifically, it is found that CLM4 tends to produce unrealistically large temporal variation of runoff for applications at a mountainous catchment in the Northwest United States where subsurface runoff is dominant, as well as at a few flux tower sites. We show that runoff simulations frommore » CLM4 can be improved by: (1) increasing spatial resolution of the land surface representations; (2) calibrating parameter values; (3) replacing the subsurface formulation with a more general nonlinear function; (4) implementing the runoff generation schemes from the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. This study also highlights the importance of evaluating both the energy and water fluxes application of land surface models across multiple scales.« less

Mars Tumbleweed Simulation Using Singular Perturbation Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raiszadeh, Behzad; Calhoun, Phillip

2005-01-01

The Mars Tumbleweed is a new surface rover concept that utilizes Martian winds as the primary source of mobility. Several designs have been proposed for the Mars Tumbleweed, all using aerodynamic drag to generate force for traveling about the surface. The Mars Tumbleweed, in its deployed configuration, must be large and lightweight to provide the ratio of drag force to rolling resistance necessary to initiate motion from the Martian surface. This paper discusses the dynamic simulation details of a candidate Tumbleweed design. The dynamic simulation model must properly evaluate and characterize the motion of the tumbleweed rover to support proper selection of system design parameters. Several factors, such as model flexibility, simulation run times, and model accuracy needed to be considered in modeling assumptions. The simulation was required to address the flexibility of the rover and its interaction with the ground, and properly evaluate its mobility. Proper assumptions needed to be made such that the simulated dynamic motion is accurate and realistic while not overly burdened by long simulation run times. This paper also shows results that provided reasonable correlation between the simulation and a drop/roll test of a tumbleweed prototype.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

PubMed

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Evaluation of outbreak detection performance using multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness in rural Hubei Province, China: a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors.

PubMed

Fan, Yunzhou; Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hongbo; Yang, Wenwen; Yu, Miao; Yan, Weirong; Diwan, Vinod K; Xu, Biao; Dong, Hengjin; Palm, Lars; Nie, Shaofa

2014-01-01

Syndromic surveillance promotes the early detection of diseases outbreaks. Although syndromic surveillance has increased in developing countries, performance on outbreak detection, particularly in cases of multi-stream surveillance, has scarcely been evaluated in rural areas. This study introduces a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors to evaluate the performance of multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness. Data were obtained in six towns of rural Hubei Province, China, from April 2012 to June 2013. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model generated 27 scenarios of simulated influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks, which were converted into corresponding simulated syndromic datasets through the healthcare-behaviors model. We then superimposed converted syndromic datasets onto the baselines obtained to create the testing datasets. Outbreak performance of single-stream surveillance of clinic visit, frequency of over the counter drug purchases, school absenteeism, and multi-stream surveillance of their combinations were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and activity monitoring operation curves. In the six towns examined, clinic visit surveillance and school absenteeism surveillance exhibited superior performances of outbreak detection than over the counter drug purchase frequency surveillance; the performance of multi-stream surveillance was preferable to signal-stream surveillance, particularly at low specificity (Sp <90%). The temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors offers an accessible method for evaluating the performance of multi-stream surveillance.

Performance evaluation using SYSTID time domain simulation. [computer-aid design and analysis for communication systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tranter, W. H.; Ziemer, R. E.; Fashano, M. J.

1975-01-01

This paper reviews the SYSTID technique for performance evaluation of communication systems using time-domain computer simulation. An example program illustrates the language. The inclusion of both Gaussian and impulse noise models make accurate simulation possible in a wide variety of environments. A very flexible postprocessor makes possible accurate and efficient performance evaluation.

Look and Feel: Haptic Interaction for Biomedicine

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-10-01

algorithm that is evaluated within the topology of the model. During each time step, forces are summed for each mobile atom based on external forces...volumetric properties; (b) conserving computation power by rendering media local to the interaction point; and (c) evaluating the simulation within...alteration of the model topology. Simulation of the DSM state is accomplished by a multi-step algorithm that is evaluated within the topology of the

Discrete event simulation: the preferred technique for health economic evaluations?

PubMed

Caro, Jaime J; Möller, Jörgen; Getsios, Denis

2010-12-01

To argue that discrete event simulation should be preferred to cohort Markov models for economic evaluations in health care. The basis for the modeling techniques is reviewed. For many health-care decisions, existing data are insufficient to fully inform them, necessitating the use of modeling to estimate the consequences that are relevant to decision-makers. These models must reflect what is known about the problem at a level of detail sufficient to inform the questions. Oversimplification will result in estimates that are not only inaccurate, but potentially misleading. Markov cohort models, though currently popular, have so many limitations and inherent assumptions that they are inadequate to inform most health-care decisions. An event-based individual simulation offers an alternative much better suited to the problem. A properly designed discrete event simulation provides more accurate, relevant estimates without being computationally prohibitive. It does require more data and may be a challenge to convey transparently, but these are necessary trade-offs to provide meaningful and valid results. In our opinion, discrete event simulation should be the preferred technique for health economic evaluations today. © 2010, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR).

Pediatric laryngeal simulator using 3D printed models: A novel technique.

PubMed

Kavanagh, Katherine R; Cote, Valerie; Tsui, Yvonne; Kudernatsch, Simon; Peterson, Donald R; Valdez, Tulio A

2017-04-01

Simulation to acquire and test technical skills is an essential component of medical education and residency training in both surgical and nonsurgical specialties. High-quality simulation education relies on the availability, accessibility, and reliability of models. The objective of this work was to describe a practical pediatric laryngeal model for use in otolaryngology residency training. Ideally, this model would be low-cost, have tactile properties resembling human tissue, and be reliably reproducible. Pediatric laryngeal models were developed using two manufacturing methods: direct three-dimensional (3D) printing of anatomical models and casted anatomical models using 3D-printed molds. Polylactic acid, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene, and high-impact polystyrene (HIPS) were used for the directly printed models, whereas a silicone elastomer (SE) was used for the casted models. The models were evaluated for anatomic quality, ease of manipulation, hardness, and cost of production. A tissue likeness scale was created to validate the simulation model. Fleiss' Kappa rating was performed to evaluate interrater agreement, and analysis of variance was performed to evaluate differences among the materials. The SE provided the most anatomically accurate models, with the tactile properties allowing for surgical manipulation of the larynx. Direct 3D printing was more cost-effective than the SE casting method but did not possess the material properties and tissue likeness necessary for surgical simulation. The SE models of the pediatric larynx created from a casting method demonstrated high quality anatomy, tactile properties comparable to human tissue, and easy manipulation with standard surgical instruments. Their use in a reliable, low-cost, accessible, modular simulation system provides a valuable training resource for otolaryngology residents. N/A. Laryngoscope, 127:E132-E137, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

UH-60A Black Hawk engineering simulation program. Volume 1: Mathematical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howlett, J. J.

1981-01-01

A nonlinear mathematical model of the UR-60A Black Hawk helicopter was developed. This mathematical model, which was based on the Sikorsky General Helicopter (Gen Hel) Flight Dynamics Simulation, provides NASA with an engineering simulation for performance and handling qualities evaluations. This mathematical model is total systems definition of the Black Hawk helicopter represented at a uniform level of sophistication considered necessary for handling qualities evaluations. The model is a total force, large angle representation in six rigid body degrees of freedom. Rotor blade flapping, lagging, and hub rotational degrees of freedom are also represented. In addition to the basic helicopter modules, supportive modules were defined for the landing interface, power unit, ground effects, and gust penetration. Information defining the cockpit environment relevant to pilot in the loop simulation is presented.

Implementation and Evaluation of Multiple Adaptive Control Technologies for a Generic Transport Aircraft Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Stefan F.; Kaneshige, John T.; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Krishakumar, Kalmanje S.

2010-01-01

Presented here is the evaluation of multiple adaptive control technologies for a generic transport aircraft simulation. For this study, seven model reference adaptive control (MRAC) based technologies were considered. Each technology was integrated into an identical dynamic-inversion control architecture and tuned using a methodology based on metrics and specific design requirements. Simulation tests were then performed to evaluate each technology s sensitivity to time-delay, flight condition, model uncertainty, and artificially induced cross-coupling. The resulting robustness and performance characteristics were used to identify potential strengths, weaknesses, and integration challenges of the individual adaptive control technologies

Evaluating the accuracy of recent electron transport models at predicting Hall thruster plasma dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappelli, Mark; Young, Christopher

2016-10-01

We present continued efforts towards introducing physical models for cross-magnetic field electron transport into Hall thruster discharge simulations. In particular, we seek to evaluate whether such models accurately capture ion dynamics, both averaged and resolved in time, through comparisons with measured ion velocity distributions which are now becoming available for several devices. Here, we describe a turbulent electron transport model that is integrated into 2-D hybrid fluid/PIC simulations of a 72 mm diameter laboratory thruster operating at 400 W. We also compare this model's predictions with one recently proposed by Lafluer et al.. Introducing these models into 2-D hybrid simulations is relatively straightforward and leverages the existing framework for solving the electron fluid equations. The models are tested for their ability to capture the time-averaged experimental discharge current and its fluctuations due to ionization instabilities. Model predictions are also more rigorously evaluated against recent laser-induced fluorescence measurements of time-resolved ion velocity distributions.

A Management Information System Model for Program Management. Ph.D. Thesis - Oklahoma State Univ.; [Computerized Systems Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shipman, D. L.

1972-01-01

The development of a model to simulate the information system of a program management type of organization is reported. The model statistically determines the following parameters: type of messages, destinations, delivery durations, type processing, processing durations, communication channels, outgoing messages, and priorites. The total management information system of the program management organization is considered, including formal and informal information flows and both facilities and equipment. The model is written in General Purpose System Simulation 2 computer programming language for use on the Univac 1108, Executive 8 computer. The model is simulated on a daily basis and collects queue and resource utilization statistics for each decision point. The statistics are then used by management to evaluate proposed resource allocations, to evaluate proposed changes to the system, and to identify potential problem areas. The model employs both empirical and theoretical distributions which are adjusted to simulate the information flow being studied.

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven;

Managing emergency department overcrowding via ambulance diversion: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Hao; Kao, Chung-Yao; Huang, Chong-Ye

2015-01-01

Ambulance diversion (AD) is considered one of the possible solutions to relieve emergency department (ED) overcrowding. Study of the effectiveness of various AD strategies is prerequisite for policy-making. Our aim is to develop a tool that quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness of various AD strategies. A simulation model and a computer simulation program were developed. Three sets of simulations were executed to evaluate AD initiating criteria, patient-blocking rules, and AD intervals, respectively. The crowdedness index, the patient waiting time for service, and the percentage of adverse patients were assessed to determine the effect of various AD policies. Simulation results suggest that, in a certain setting, the best timing for implementing AD is when the crowdedness index reaches the critical value, 1.0 - an indicator that ED is operating at its maximal capacity. The strategy to divert all patients transported by ambulance is more effective than to divert either high-acuity patients only or low-acuity patients only. Given a total allowable AD duration, implementing AD multiple times with short intervals generally has better effect than having a single AD with maximal allowable duration. An input-throughput-output simulation model is proposed for simulating ED operation. Effectiveness of several AD strategies on relieving ED overcrowding was assessed via computer simulations based on this model. By appropriate parameter settings, the model can represent medical resource providers of different scales. It is also feasible to expand the simulations to evaluate the effect of AD strategies on a community basis. The results may offer insights for making effective AD policies. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Propulsion simulation for magnetically suspended wind tunnel models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Prakash B.; Beerman, Henry P.; Chen, James; Krech, Robert H.; Lintz, Andrew L.; Rosen, David I.

1990-01-01

The feasibility of simulating propulsion-induced aerodynamic effects on scaled aircraft models in wind tunnels employing Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems. The investigation concerned itself with techniques of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics. The objectives were to: (1) define thrust and mass flow requirements of jets; (2) evaluate techniques for generating propulsive gas within volume limitations imposed by magnetically-suspended models; (3) conduct simple diagnostic experiments for techniques involving new concepts; and (4) recommend experiments for demonstration of propulsion simulation techniques. Various techniques of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics were evaluated on scaled aircraft models in wind tunnels with MSBS. Four concepts of remotely-operated propulsion simulators were examined. Three conceptual designs involving innovative adaptation of convenient technologies (compressed gas cylinders, liquid, and solid propellants) were developed. The fourth innovative concept, namely, the laser-assisted thruster, which can potentially simulate both inlet and exhaust flows, was found to require very high power levels for small thrust levels.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be associated with modeled air quality concentrations. This paper presents novel approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and for evaluating the confidence limits of ozone exceedances using the WRF/CMAQ model simulations over the continental United States for the period from 1990 to 2010. The methodology presented here entails spectral decomposition of ozone time series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of the synoptic (i.e., weather-induced variation) and baseline (i.e., long-term variation attributable to emissions, policy, and trends) forcings embedded in the modeled and observed concentrations. A method is presented where the future year observations are estimated based on the changes in the concentrations predicted by the model applied to the current year observations. The proposed method can provide confidence limits for ozone exceedances for a given emission reduction scenario. We present and discuss these new approaches to identify the strengths of the model in representing the changes in simulated O3 air quality over the 21-year period. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates

Realistic simulated MRI and SPECT databases. Application to SPECT/MRI registration evaluation.

PubMed

Aubert-Broche, Berengere; Grova, Christophe; Reilhac, Anthonin; Evans, Alan C; Collins, D Louis

2006-01-01

This paper describes the construction of simulated SPECT and MRI databases that account for realistic anatomical and functional variability. The data is used as a gold-standard to evaluate four SPECT/MRI similarity-based registration methods. Simulation realism was accounted for using accurate physical models of data generation and acquisition. MRI and SPECT simulations were generated from three subjects to take into account inter-subject anatomical variability. Functional SPECT data were computed from six functional models of brain perfusion. Previous models of normal perfusion and ictal perfusion observed in Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (MTLE) were considered to generate functional variability. We studied the impact noise and intensity non-uniformity in MRI simulations and SPECT scatter correction may have on registration accuracy. We quantified the amount of registration error caused by anatomical and functional variability. Registration involving ictal data was less accurate than registration involving normal data. MR intensity nonuniformity was the main factor decreasing registration accuracy. The proposed simulated database is promising to evaluate many functional neuroimaging methods, involving MRI and SPECT data.

DEPEND: A simulation-based environment for system level dependability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1992-01-01

The design and evaluation of highly reliable computer systems is a complex issue. Designers mostly develop such systems based on prior knowledge and experience and occasionally from analytical evaluations of simplified designs. A simulation-based environment called DEPEND which is especially geared for the design and evaluation of fault-tolerant architectures is presented. DEPEND is unique in that it exploits the properties of object-oriented programming to provide a flexible framework with which a user can rapidly model and evaluate various fault-tolerant systems. The key features of the DEPEND environment are described, and its capabilities are illustrated with a detailed analysis of a real design. In particular, DEPEND is used to simulate the Unix based Tandem Integrity fault-tolerance and evaluate how well it handles near-coincident errors caused by correlated and latent faults. Issues such as memory scrubbing, re-integration policies, and workload dependent repair times which affect how the system handles near-coincident errors are also evaluated. Issues such as the method used by DEPEND to simulate error latency and the time acceleration technique that provides enormous simulation speed up are also discussed. Unlike any other simulation-based dependability studies, the use of these approaches and the accuracy of the simulation model are validated by comparing the results of the simulations, with measurements obtained from fault injection experiments conducted on a production Tandem Integrity machine.

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Full Core TREAT Kinetics Demonstration Using Rattlesnake/BISON Coupling Within MAMMOTH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortensi, Javier; DeHart, Mark D.; Gleicher, Frederick N.

2015-08-01

This report summarizes key aspects of research in evaluation of modeling needs for TREAT transient simulation. Using a measured TREAT critical measurement and a transient for a small, experimentally simplified core, Rattlesnake and MAMMOTH simulations are performed building from simple infinite media to a full core model. Cross sections processing methods are evaluated, various homogenization approaches are assessed and the neutronic behavior of the core studied to determine key modeling aspects. The simulation of the minimum critical core with the diffusion solver shows very good agreement with the reference Monte Carlo simulation and the experiment. The full core transient simulationmore » with thermal feedback shows a significantly lower power peak compared to the documented experimental measurement, which is not unexpected in the early stages of model development.« less

Comparison of MADE3-simulated and observed aerosol distributions with a focus on aerosol vertical profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Christopher; Hendricks, Johannes; Righi, Mattia; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The reliability of aerosol radiative forcing estimates from climate models depends on the accuracy of simulated global aerosol distribution and composition, as well as on the models' representation of the aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions. To help improve on previous modeling studies, we recently developed the new aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 that explicitly tracks particle mixing state in the Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges. We implemented MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC and evaluated it by comparison of simulated aerosol properties to observations. Compared properties include continental near-surface aerosol component concentrations and size distributions, continental and marine aerosol vertical profiles, and nearly global aerosol optical depth. Recent studies have shown the specific importance of aerosol vertical profiles for determination of the aerosol radiative forcing. Therefore, our focus here is on the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles. The observational data is taken from campaigns between 1990 and 2011 over the Pacific Ocean, over North and South America, and over Europe. The datasets include black carbon and total aerosol mass mixing ratios, as well as aerosol particle number concentrations. Compared to other models, EMAC with MADE3 yields good agreement with the observations - despite a general high bias of the simulated mass mixing ratio profiles. However, BC concentrations are generally overestimated by many models in the upper troposphere. With MADE3 in EMAC, we find better agreement of the simulated BC profiles with HIPPO data than the multi-model average of the models that took part in the AeroCom project. There is an interesting difference between the profiles from individual campaigns and more "climatological" datasets. For instance, compared to spatially and temporally localized campaigns, the model simulates a more continuous decline in both total aerosol and black carbon mass mixing ratio with altitude than found in the observations. In contrast, measured profiles from the HIPPO project are qualitatively captured well. Similar conclusions hold for the comparison of simulated and measured aerosol particle number concentrations. On the one hand, these results exemplify the difficulty in evaluating the representativeness of the simulated global climatological state of the aerosol by means of comparison with individually measured vertical profiles. On the other hand, it highlights the value of aircraft campaigns with large spatial and temporal coverage for model evaluation.

Evaluating Measurement of Dynamic Constructs: Defining a Measurement Model of Derivatives

PubMed Central

Estabrook, Ryne

2015-01-01

While measurement evaluation has been embraced as an important step in psychological research, evaluating measurement structures with longitudinal data is fraught with limitations. This paper defines and tests a measurement model of derivatives (MMOD), which is designed to assess the measurement structure of latent constructs both for analyses of between-person differences and for the analysis of change. Simulation results indicate that MMOD outperforms existing models for multivariate analysis and provides equivalent fit to data generation models. Additional simulations show MMOD capable of detecting differences in between-person and within-person factor structures. Model features, applications and future directions are discussed. PMID:24364383

Simulation-based Education for Endoscopic Third Ventriculostomy: A Comparison Between Virtual and Physical Training Models.

PubMed

Breimer, Gerben E; Haji, Faizal A; Bodani, Vivek; Cunningham, Melissa S; Lopez-Rios, Adriana-Lucia; Okrainec, Allan; Drake, James M

2017-02-01

The relative educational benefits of virtual reality (VR) and physical simulation models for endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) have not been evaluated "head to head." To compare and identify the relative utility of a physical and VR ETV simulation model for use in neurosurgical training. Twenty-three neurosurgical residents and 3 fellows performed an ETV on both a physical and VR simulation model. Trainees rated the models using 5-point Likert scales evaluating the domains of anatomy, instrument handling, procedural content, and the overall fidelity of the simulation. Paired t tests were performed for each domain's mean overall score and individual items. The VR model has relative benefits compared with the physical model with respect to realistic representation of intraventricular anatomy at the foramen of Monro (4.5, standard deviation [SD] = 0.7 vs 4.1, SD = 0.6; P = .04) and the third ventricle floor (4.4, SD = 0.6 vs 4.0, SD = 0.9; P = .03), although the overall anatomy score was similar (4.2, SD = 0.6 vs 4.0, SD = 0.6; P = .11). For overall instrument handling and procedural content, the physical simulator outperformed the VR model (3.7, SD = 0.8 vs 4.5; SD = 0.5, P < .001 and 3.9; SD = 0.8 vs 4.2, SD = 0.6; P = .02, respectively). Overall task fidelity across the 2 simulators was not perceived as significantly different. Simulation model selection should be based on educational objectives. Training focused on learning anatomy or decision-making for anatomic cues may be aided with the VR simulation model. A focus on developing manual dexterity and technical skills using endoscopic equipment in the operating room may be better learned on the physical simulation model. Copyright © 2016 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Using Simulation Games in the Classroom. Report Number 44.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harry, Lindy

The Center for the Study of Social Organizations at Johns Hopkins University has developed suggestions for evaluating, preparing, introducing, playing, discussing, and modifying simulation games for classroom use. The teacher must first evaluate the game materials and the simulation model in the light of the abilities and interests of his…

Sensitivity of simulated conservation practice effectiveness to representation of field and in-stream processes in the Little River Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation practices (CPs) is an important step to achieving efficient and successful water quality management. Watershed-scale simulation models can provide useful and convenient tools for this evaluation, but simulated conservation practice effectiveness should be...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

Performance of uncertainty quantification methodologies and linear solvers in cardiovascular simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Jongmin; Schiavazzi, Daniele; Marsden, Alison

2017-11-01

Cardiovascular simulations are increasingly used in clinical decision making, surgical planning, and disease diagnostics. Patient-specific modeling and simulation typically proceeds through a pipeline from anatomic model construction using medical image data to blood flow simulation and analysis. To provide confidence intervals on simulation predictions, we use an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze the effects of numerous uncertainties that stem from clinical data acquisition, modeling, material properties, and boundary condition selection. However, UQ poses a computational challenge requiring multiple evaluations of the Navier-Stokes equations in complex 3-D models. To achieve efficiency in UQ problems with many function evaluations, we implement and compare a range of iterative linear solver and preconditioning techniques in our flow solver. We then discuss applications to patient-specific cardiovascular simulation and how the problem/boundary condition formulation in the solver affects the selection of the most efficient linear solver. Finally, we discuss performance improvements in the context of uncertainty propagation. Support from National Institute of Health (R01 EB018302) is greatly appreciated.

Numerical simulation of the effect of regular and sub-caliber projectiles on military bunkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiricek, Pavel; Foglar, Marek

2015-09-01

One of the most demanding topics in blast and impact engineering is the modelling of projectile impact. To introduce this topic, a set of numerical simulations was undertaken. The simulations study the impact of regular and sub-calibre projectile on Czech pre-WW2 military bunkers. The penetrations of the military objects are well documented and can be used for comparison. The numerical model composes of a part from a wall of a military object. The concrete block is subjected to an impact of a regular and sub-calibre projectile. The model is divided into layers to simplify the evaluation of the results. The simulations are processed within ANSYS AUTODYN software. A nonlinear material model of with damage and incorporated strain-rate effect was used. The results of the numerical simulations are evaluated in means of the damage of the concrete block. Progress of the damage is described versus time. The numerical simulation provides good agreement with the documented penetrations.

Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Kolovos, Spyros; Bosmans, Judith E; Riper, Heleen; Chevreul, Karine; Coupé, Veerle M H; van Tulder, Maurits W

2017-09-01

An increasing number of model-based studies that evaluate the cost effectiveness of treatments for depression are being published. These studies have different characteristics and use different simulation methods. We aimed to systematically review model-based studies evaluating the cost effectiveness of treatments for depression and examine which modelling technique is most appropriate for simulating the natural course of depression. The literature search was conducted in the databases PubMed, EMBASE and PsycInfo between 1 January 2002 and 1 October 2016. Studies were eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined criteria. This methodological review included 41 model-based studies, of which 21 used decision trees (DTs), 15 used cohort-based state-transition Markov models (CMMs), two used individual-based state-transition models (ISMs), and three used discrete-event simulation (DES) models. Just over half of the studies (54%) evaluated antidepressants compared with a control condition. The data sources, time horizons, cycle lengths, perspectives adopted and number of health states/events all varied widely between the included studies. DTs scored positively in four of the 11 criteria, CMMs in five, ISMs in six, and DES models in seven. There were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation of the course of depression. However, direct comparisons between the available modelling techniques are necessary to yield firm conclusions.

Modeling sediment yield in small catchments at event scale: Model comparison, development and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Tesfa, T. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment yield (SY) has significant impacts on river biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems but it is rarely represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Existing SY models focus on estimating SY from large river basins or individual catchments so it is not clear how well they simulate SY in ESMs at larger spatial scales and globally. In this study, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of eight well-known SY models in simulating annual mean SY at about 400 small catchments ranging in size from 0.22 to 200 km2 in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. In addition, we also investigate the performance of these models in simulating event-scale SY at six catchments in the US using high-quality hydrological inputs. The model comparison shows that none of the models can reproduce the SY at large spatial scales but the Morgan model performs the better than others despite its simplicity. In all model simulations, large underestimates occur in catchments with very high SY. A possible pathway to reduce the discrepancies is to incorporate sediment detachment by landsliding, which is currently not included in the models being evaluated. We propose a new SY model that is based on the Morgan model but including a landsliding soil detachment scheme that is being developed. Along with the results of the model comparison and evaluation, preliminary findings from the revised Morgan model will be presented.

Evaluating WRF-Chem multi-scale model in simulating aerosol radiative properties over the tropics – A case study over India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seethala, C.; Pandithurai, G.; Fast, Jerome D.

We utilized WRF-Chem multi-scale model to simulate the regional distribution of aerosols, optical properties and its effect on radiation over India for a winter month. The model is evaluated using measurements obtained from upper-air soundings, AERONET sun photometers, various satellite instruments, and pyranometers operated by the Indian Meteorological Department. The simulated downward shortwave flux was overestimated when the effect of aerosols on radiation and clouds was neglected. Downward shortwave radiation from a simulation that included aerosol-radiation interaction processes was 5 to 25 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations, while a simulation that included aerosol-cloud interaction processes were another 1 tomore » 20 Wm{sup -2} closer to the observations. For the few observations available, the model usually underestimated particulate concentration. This is likely due to turbulent mixing, transport errors and the lack of secondary organic aerosol treatment in the model. The model efficiently captured the broad regional hotspots such as high aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic basin as well as the northwestern and southern part of India. The regional distribution of aerosol optical depth compares well with AVHRR aerosol optical depth and the TOMS aerosol index. The magnitude and wavelength-dependence of simulated aerosol optical depth was also similar to the AERONET observations across India. Differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglected aerosol-radiation interactions were as high as -25 Wm{sup -2}, while differences in surface shortwave radiation between simulations that included and neglect aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions were as high as -30 Wm{sup -2}. The spatial variations of these differences were also compared with AVHRR observation. This study suggests that the model is able to qualitatively simulate the impact of aerosols on radiation over India; however, additional measurements of particulate mass and composition are needed to fully evaluate whether the aerosol precursor emissions are adequate when simulating radiative forcing in the region.« less

Validation of X1 motorcycle model in industrial plant layout by using WITNESSTM simulation software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzas, M. F. M. A.; Bareduan, S. A.; Zakaria, M. Z.; Tan, W. J.; Zairi, S.

2017-09-01

This paper demonstrates a case study on simulation, modelling and analysis for X1 Motorcycles Model. In this research, a motorcycle assembly plant has been selected as a main place of research study. Simulation techniques by using Witness software were applied to evaluate the performance of the existing manufacturing system. The main objective is to validate the data and find out the significant impact on the overall performance of the system for future improvement. The process of validation starts when the layout of the assembly line was identified. All components are evaluated to validate whether the data is significance for future improvement. Machine and labor statistics are among the parameters that were evaluated for process improvement. Average total cycle time for given workstations is used as criterion for comparison of possible variants. From the simulation process, the data used are appropriate and meet the criteria for two-sided assembly line problems.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs — Calibration Report for San Mateo Testbed.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-22

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs - calibration report for Dallas testbed : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Farm simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process-level modeling at the farm scale provides a tool for evaluating both strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for adapting to climate change. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) simulates representative crop, beef or dairy farms over many years of weather to pred...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — gaps, challenges and future research.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

The primary objective of AMS project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. Through this p...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - calibration Report for Phoenix Testbed : Final Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — leveraging AMS testbed outputs for ATDM analysis – a primer.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

The primary objective of AMS Testbed project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. Throug...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - San Mateo Testbed Analysis Plan : Final Report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-29

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

A Tutorial on RxODE: Simulating Differential Equation Pharmacometric Models in R.

PubMed

Wang, W; Hallow, K M; James, D A

2016-01-01

This tutorial presents the application of an R package, RxODE, that facilitates quick, efficient simulations of ordinary differential equation models completely within R. Its application is illustrated through simulation of design decision effects on an adaptive dosing regimen. The package provides an efficient, versatile way to specify dosing scenarios and to perform simulation with variability with minimal custom coding. Models can be directly translated to Rshiny applications to facilitate interactive, real-time evaluation/iteration on simulation scenarios.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Development of a simulated smart pump interface.

PubMed

Elias, Beth L; Moss, Jacqueline A; Shih, Alan; Dillavou, Marcus

2014-01-01

Medical device user interfaces are increasingly complex, resulting in a need for evaluation in clinicallyaccurate settings. Simulation of these interfaces can allow for evaluation, training, and use for research without the risk of harming patients and with a significant cost reduction over using the actual medical devices. This pilot project was phase 1 of a study to define and evaluate a methodology for development of simulated medical device interface technology to be used for education, device development, and research. Digital video and audio recordings of interface interactions were analyzed to develop a model of a smart intravenous medication infusion pump user interface. This model was used to program a high-fidelity simulated smart intravenous medication infusion pump user interface on an inexpensive netbook platform.

Evaluation of NASA's end-to-end data systems using DSDS+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouff, Christopher; Davenport, William; Message, Philip

1994-01-01

The Data Systems Dynamic Simulator (DSDS+) is a software tool being developed by the authors to evaluate candidate architectures for NASA's end-to-end data systems. Via modeling and simulation, we are able to quickly predict the performance characteristics of each architecture, to evaluate 'what-if' scenarios, and to perform sensitivity analyses. As such, we are using modeling and simulation to help NASA select the optimal system configuration, and to quantify the performance characteristics of this system prior to its delivery. This paper is divided into the following six sections: (1) The role of modeling and simulation in the systems engineering process. In this section, we briefly describe the different types of results obtained by modeling each phase of the systems engineering life cycle, from concept definition through operations and maintenance; (2) Recent applications of DSDS+. In this section, we describe ongoing applications of DSDS+ in support of the Earth Observing System (EOS), and we present some of the simulation results generated of candidate system designs. So far, we have modeled individual EOS subsystems (e.g. the Solid State Recorders used onboard the spacecraft), and we have also developed an integrated model of the EOS end-to-end data processing and data communications systems (from the payloads onboard to the principle investigator facilities on the ground); (3) Overview of DSDS+. In this section we define what a discrete-event model is, and how it works. The discussion is presented relative to the DSDS+ simulation tool that we have developed, including it's run-time optimization algorithms that enables DSDS+ to execute substantially faster than comparable discrete-event simulation tools; (4) Summary. In this section, we summarize our findings and 'lessons learned' during the development and application of DSDS+ to model NASA's data systems; (5) Further Information; and (6) Acknowledgements.

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

DOE PAGES

Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; ...

2016-05-10

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols.more » The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.« less

Modeling and Performance Simulation of the Mass Storage Network Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Chan M.; Sang, Janche

2000-01-01

This paper describes the application of modeling and simulation in evaluating and predicting the performance of the mass storage network environment. Network traffic is generated to mimic the realistic pattern of file transfer, electronic mail, and web browsing. The behavior and performance of the mass storage network and a typical client-server Local Area Network (LAN) are investigated by modeling and simulation. Performance characteristics in throughput and delay demonstrate the important role of modeling and simulation in network engineering and capacity planning.

The impact of reduced gastric acid secretion on dissolution of salts of weak bases in the fasted upper gastrointestinal lumen: Data in biorelevant media and in human aspirates.

PubMed

Litou, Chara; Vertzoni, Maria; Xu, Wei; Kesisoglou, Filippos; Reppas, Christos

2017-06-01

To propose media for simulating the intragastric environment under reduced gastric acid secretion in the fasted state at three levels of simulation of the gastric environment and evaluate their usefulness in evaluating the intragastric dissolution of salts of weak bases. To evaluate the importance of bicarbonate buffer in biorelevant in vitro dissolution testing when using Level II biorelevant media simulating the environment in the fasted upper small intestine, regardless of gastric acid secretions. Media for simulating the hypochlorhydric and achlorhydric conditions in stomach were proposed using phosphates, maleates and bicarbonates buffers. The impact of bicarbonates in Level II biorelevant media simulating the environment in upper small intestine was evaluated so that pH and bulk buffer capacity were maintained. Dissolution data were collected using two model compounds, pioglitazone hydrochloride and semifumarate cocrystal of Compound B, and the mini-paddle dissolution apparatus in biorelevant media and in human aspirates. Simulated gastric fluids proposed in this study were in line with pH, buffer capacity, pepsin content, total bile salt/lecithin content and osmolality of the fasted stomach under partial and under complete inhibition of gastric acid secretion. Fluids simulating the conditions under partial inhibition of acid secretion were useful in simulating concentrations of both model compounds in gastric aspirates. Bicarbonates in Level III biorelevant gastric media and in Level II biorelevant media simulating the composition in the upper intestinal lumen did not improve simulation of concentrations in human aspirates. Level III biorelevant media for simulating the intragastric environment under hypochlorhydric conditions were proposed and their usefulness in the evaluation of concentrations of two model salts of weak bases in gastric aspirates was shown. Level II biorelevant media for simulating the environment in upper intestinal lumen led to underestimation of concentrations in aspirates, even when bicarbonate buffer was used. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using a simulation assistant in modeling manufacturing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, S. X.; Wolfsberger, John W.

1988-01-01

Numerous simulation languages exist for modeling discrete event processes, and are now ported to microcomputers. Graphic and animation capabilities were added to many of these languages to assist the users build models and evaluate the simulation results. With all these languages and added features, the user is still plagued with learning the simulation language. Futhermore, the time to construct and then to validate the simulation model is always greater than originally anticipated. One approach to minimize the time requirement is to use pre-defined macros that describe various common processes or operations in a system. The development of a simulation assistant for modeling discrete event manufacturing processes is presented. A simulation assistant is defined as an interactive intelligent software tool that assists the modeler in writing a simulation program by translating the modeler's symbolic description of the problem and then automatically generating the corresponding simulation code. The simulation assistant is discussed with emphasis on an overview of the simulation assistant, the elements of the assistant, and the five manufacturing simulation generators. A typical manufacturing system will be modeled using the simulation assistant and the advantages and disadvantages discussed.

10 CFR 431.17 - Determination of efficiency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... characteristics of that basic model, and (ii) Based on engineering or statistical analysis, computer simulation or... simulation or modeling, and other analytic evaluation of performance data on which the AEDM is based... applied. (iii) If requested by the Department, the manufacturer shall conduct simulations to predict the...

10 CFR 431.17 - Determination of efficiency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... characteristics of that basic model, and (ii) Based on engineering or statistical analysis, computer simulation or... simulation or modeling, and other analytic evaluation of performance data on which the AEDM is based... applied. (iii) If requested by the Department, the manufacturer shall conduct simulations to predict the...

Distributed Simulation as a modelling tool for the development of a simulation-based training programme for cardiovascular specialties.

PubMed

Kelay, Tanika; Chan, Kah Leong; Ako, Emmanuel; Yasin, Mohammad; Costopoulos, Charis; Gold, Matthew; Kneebone, Roger K; Malik, Iqbal S; Bello, Fernando

2017-01-01

Distributed Simulation is the concept of portable, high-fidelity immersive simulation. Here, it is used for the development of a simulation-based training programme for cardiovascular specialities. We present an evidence base for how accessible, portable and self-contained simulated environments can be effectively utilised for the modelling, development and testing of a complex training framework and assessment methodology. Iterative user feedback through mixed-methods evaluation techniques resulted in the implementation of the training programme. Four phases were involved in the development of our immersive simulation-based training programme: ( 1) initial conceptual stage for mapping structural criteria and parameters of the simulation training framework and scenario development ( n  = 16), (2) training facility design using Distributed Simulation , (3) test cases with clinicians ( n  = 8) and collaborative design, where evaluation and user feedback involved a mixed-methods approach featuring (a) quantitative surveys to evaluate the realism and perceived educational relevance of the simulation format and framework for training and (b) qualitative semi-structured interviews to capture detailed feedback including changes and scope for development. Refinements were made iteratively to the simulation framework based on user feedback, resulting in (4) transition towards implementation of the simulation training framework, involving consistent quantitative evaluation techniques for clinicians ( n  = 62). For comparative purposes, clinicians' initial quantitative mean evaluation scores for realism of the simulation training framework, realism of the training facility and relevance for training ( n  = 8) are presented longitudinally, alongside feedback throughout the development stages from concept to delivery, including the implementation stage ( n  = 62). Initially, mean evaluation scores fluctuated from low to average, rising incrementally. This corresponded with the qualitative component, which augmented the quantitative findings; trainees' user feedback was used to perform iterative refinements to the simulation design and components (collaborative design), resulting in higher mean evaluation scores leading up to the implementation phase. Through application of innovative Distributed Simulation techniques, collaborative design, and consistent evaluation techniques from conceptual, development, and implementation stages, fully immersive simulation techniques for cardiovascular specialities are achievable and have the potential to be implemented more broadly.

A Ground-Based Doppler Radar and Micropulse Lidar Forward Simulator for GCM Evaluation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Moving Forward Towards an Apples-to-apples Comparison of Hydrometeor Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2017-12-01

An important aspect of evaluating Artic cloud representation in a general circulation model (GCM) consists of using observational benchmarks which are as equivalent as possible to model output in order to avoid methodological bias and focus on correctly diagnosing model dynamical and microphysical misrepresentations. However, current cloud observing systems are known to suffer from biases such as limited sensitivity, and stronger response to large or small hydrometeors. Fortunately, while these observational biases cannot be corrected, they are often well understood and can be reproduced in forward simulations. Here a ground-based millimeter wavelength Doppler radar and micropulse lidar forward simulator able to interface with output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE GCM is presented. ModelE stratiform hydrometeor fraction, mixing ratio, mass-weighted fall speed and effective radius are forward simulated to vertically-resolved profiles of radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity and spectrum width as well as lidar backscatter and depolarization ratio. These forward simulated fields are then compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) ground-based observations to assess cloud vertical structure (CVS). Model evalution of Arctic mixed-phase cloud would also benefit from hydrometeor phase evaluation. While phase retrieval from synergetic observations often generates large uncertainties, the same retrieval algorithm can be applied to observed and forward-simulated radar-lidar fields, thereby producing retrieved hydrometeor properties with potentially the same uncertainties. Comparing hydrometeor properties retrieved in exactly the same way aims to produce the best apples-to-apples comparisons between GCM ouputs and observations. The use of a comprenhensive ground-based forward simulator coupled with a hydrometeor classification retrieval algorithm provides a new perspective for GCM evaluation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds from the ground where low-level supercooled liquid layer are more easily observed and where additional environmental properties such as cloud condensation nuclei are quantified. This should help assist in choosing between several possible diagnostic ice nucleation schemes for ModelE stratiform cloud.

Evaluation of Intersection Traffic Control Measures through Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asaithambi, Gowri; Sivanandan, R.

2015-12-01

Modeling traffic flow is stochastic in nature due to randomness in variables such as vehicle arrivals and speeds. Due to this and due to complex vehicular interactions and their manoeuvres, it is extremely difficult to model the traffic flow through analytical methods. To study this type of complex traffic system and vehicle interactions, simulation is considered as an effective tool. Application of homogeneous traffic models to heterogeneous traffic may not be able to capture the complex manoeuvres and interactions in such flows. Hence, a microscopic simulation model for heterogeneous traffic is developed using object oriented concepts. This simulation model acts as a tool for evaluating various control measures at signalized intersections. The present study focuses on the evaluation of Right Turn Lane (RTL) and Channelised Left Turn Lane (CLTL). A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate RTL and CLTL by varying the approach volumes, turn proportions and turn lane lengths. RTL is found to be advantageous only up to certain approach volumes and right-turn proportions, beyond which it is counter-productive. CLTL is found to be advantageous for lower approach volumes for all turn proportions, signifying the benefits of CLTL. It is counter-productive for higher approach volume and lower turn proportions. This study pinpoints the break-even points for various scenarios. The developed simulation model can be used as an appropriate intersection lane control tool for enhancing the efficiency of flow at intersections. This model can also be employed for scenario analysis and can be valuable to field traffic engineers in implementing vehicle-type based and lane-based traffic control measures.

Virtual Observation System for Earth System Model: An Application to ACME Land Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Dali; Yuan, Fengming; Hernandez, Benjamin

Investigating and evaluating physical-chemical-biological processes within an Earth system model (EMS) can be very challenging due to the complexity of both model design and software implementation. A virtual observation system (VOS) is presented to enable interactive observation of these processes during system simulation. Based on advance computing technologies, such as compiler-based software analysis, automatic code instrumentation, and high-performance data transport, the VOS provides run-time observation capability, in-situ data analytics for Earth system model simulation, model behavior adjustment opportunities through simulation steering. A VOS for a terrestrial land model simulation within the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy model is also presentedmore » to demonstrate the implementation details and system innovations.« less

Virtual Observation System for Earth System Model: An Application to ACME Land Model Simulations

DOE PAGES

Wang, Dali; Yuan, Fengming; Hernandez, Benjamin; ...

2017-01-01

Investigating and evaluating physical-chemical-biological processes within an Earth system model (EMS) can be very challenging due to the complexity of both model design and software implementation. A virtual observation system (VOS) is presented to enable interactive observation of these processes during system simulation. Based on advance computing technologies, such as compiler-based software analysis, automatic code instrumentation, and high-performance data transport, the VOS provides run-time observation capability, in-situ data analytics for Earth system model simulation, model behavior adjustment opportunities through simulation steering. A VOS for a terrestrial land model simulation within the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy model is also presentedmore » to demonstrate the implementation details and system innovations.« less

Accomplishments and challenges of surgical simulation.

PubMed

Satava, R M

2001-03-01

For nearly a decade, advanced computer technologies have created extraordinary educational tools using three-dimensional (3D) visualization and virtual reality. Pioneering efforts in surgical simulation with these tools have resulted in a first generation of simulators for surgical technical skills. Accomplishments include simulations with 3D models of anatomy for practice of surgical tasks, initial assessment of student performance in technical skills, and awareness by professional societies of potential in surgical education and certification. However, enormous challenges remain, which include improvement of technical fidelity, standardization of accurate metrics for performance evaluation, integration of simulators into a robust educational curriculum, stringent evaluation of simulators for effectiveness and value added to surgical training, determination of simulation application to certification of surgical technical skills, and a business model to implement and disseminate simulation successfully throughout the medical education community. This review looks at the historical progress of surgical simulators, their accomplishments, and the challenges that remain.

An Evaluation of the High Level Architecture (HLA) as a Framework for NASA Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reid, Michael R.; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The High Level Architecture (HLA) is a current US Department of Defense and an industry (IEEE-1516) standard architecture for modeling and simulations. It provides a framework and set of functional rules and common interfaces for integrating separate and disparate simulators into a larger simulation. The goal of the HLA is to reduce software costs by facilitating the reuse of simulation components and by providing a runtime infrastructure to manage the simulations. In order to evaluate the applicability of the HLA as a technology for NASA space mission simulations, a Simulations Group at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) conducted a study of the HLA and developed a simple prototype HLA-compliant space mission simulator. This paper summarizes the prototyping effort and discusses the potential usefulness of the HLA in the design and planning of future NASA space missions with a focus on risk mitigation and cost reduction.

Evaluation of modelled methane emissions over northern peatland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yao; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah; Raivonen, Maarit; Susiluoto, Jouni; Vesala, Timo; Aurela, Mika; Lohila, Annalea; Aalto, Tuula

2017-04-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, with approximately 34 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a century time horizon (IPCC, 2013). The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. Evaluation of the ability of the process-based land surface models of earth system models (ESMs) in simulating CH4 emission over peatland is needed for more precise future predictions. In this study, two peatland sites of poor and rich soil nutrient conditions, in southern and northern Finland respectively, are adopted. The measured CH4 fluxes at the two sites are used to evaluate the CH4 emissions simulated by the land surface model (JULES) of the UK Earth System model and by the Helsinki peatland methane emission model (HIMMELI), which is developed at Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helsinki University. In JULES, CH4 flux is simply related to soil temperature, wetland fraction and effective substrate availability. However, HIMMELI has detailed descriptions of microbial and transport processes for simulating CH4 flux. The seasonal dynamics of CH4 fluxes at the two sites are relatively well captured by both models, but model biases exist. Simulated CH4 flux is sensitive to water table depth (WTD) at both models. However, the simulated WTD is limited to be below ground in JULES. It is also important to have the annual cycle of LAI correct when coupling JULES with HIMMELI.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Limei; Pleim, Jonathan; Song, Conghe; Band, Larry; Walker, John T.; Binkowski, Francis S.

2017-02-01

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system - WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH are simulated especially well by the PX PSN compared to significant overestimation by the PX Jarvis for a grassland site.

Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India.

PubMed

Sudharsan, D; Adinarayana, J; Reddy, D Raji; Sreenivas, G; Ninomiya, S; Hirafuji, M; Kiura, T; Tanaka, K; Desai, U B; Merchant, S N

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models--standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])--with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

Evaluation of cloud-resolving model simulations of midlatitude cirrus with ARM and A-train observations

DOE PAGES

Muhlbauer, A.; Ackerman, T. P.; Lawson, R. P.; ...

2015-07-14

Cirrus clouds are ubiquitous in the upper troposphere and still constitute one of the largest uncertainties in climate predictions. Our paper evaluates cloud-resolving model (CRM) and cloud system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations of a midlatitude cirrus case with comprehensive observations collected under the auspices of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program and with spaceborne observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration A-train satellites. The CRM simulations are driven with periodic boundary conditions and ARM forcing data, whereas the CSRM simulations are driven by the ERA-Interim product. Vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speeds are reasonably well simulated bymore » the CSRM and CRM, but there are remaining biases in the temperature, wind speeds, and relative humidity, which can be mitigated through nudging the model simulations toward the observed radiosonde profiles. Simulated vertical velocities are underestimated in all simulations except in the CRM simulations with grid spacings of 500 m or finer, which suggests that turbulent vertical air motions in cirrus clouds need to be parameterized in general circulation models and in CSRM simulations with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 1 km. The simulated ice water content and ice number concentrations agree with the observations in the CSRM but are underestimated in the CRM simulations. The underestimation of ice number concentrations is consistent with the overestimation of radar reflectivity in the CRM simulations and suggests that the model produces too many large ice particles especially toward the cloud base. Simulated cloud profiles are rather insensitive to perturbations in the initial conditions or the dimensionality of the model domain, but the treatment of the forcing data has a considerable effect on the outcome of the model simulations. Despite considerable progress in observations and microphysical parameterizations, simulating the microphysical, macrophysical, and radiative properties of cirrus remains challenging. Comparing model simulations with observations from multiple instruments and observational platforms is important for revealing model deficiencies and for providing rigorous benchmarks. But, there still is considerable need for reducing observational uncertainties and providing better observations especially for relative humidity and for the size distribution and chemical composition of aerosols in the upper troposphere.« less

Modeling and simulation of Charpy impact test of maraging steel 300 using Abaqus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhusudhan, D.; Chand, Suresh; Ganesh, S.; Saibhargavi, U.

2018-03-01

This work emphasizes the modeling and simulation of Charpy impact test to evaluate fracture energy at different pendulum velocities of armor maraging steel 300 using ABAQUS. To evaluate the fracture energy, V-notch specimen is fractured using the Johnson and Cook Damage model. The Charpy impact tests are of great importance related to fracture properties of steels. The objective of this work is to present absorbed energy variation at pendulum velocities of 5 m/sec, 6 m/sec, 7 m/sec and 9 m/sec in addition to stress distribution at v-notch. Finite Element Method of modeling for three dimensional specimens is used for simulation in commercial software of ABAQUS.

Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation: Report of an FDA Public Workshop.

PubMed

Zhang, X; Duan, J; Kesisoglou, F; Novakovic, J; Amidon, G L; Jamei, M; Lukacova, V; Eissing, T; Tsakalozou, E; Zhao, L; Lionberger, R

2017-08-01

On May 19, 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) hosted a public workshop, entitled "Mechanistic Oral Absorption Modeling and Simulation for Formulation Development and Bioequivalence Evaluation." The topic of mechanistic oral absorption modeling, which is one of the major applications of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation, focuses on predicting oral absorption by mechanistically integrating gastrointestinal transit, dissolution, and permeation processes, incorporating systems, active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and the drug product information, into a systemic mathematical whole-body framework. © 2017 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Evaluation of Boreal Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in the GASS-YOTC Multi-Model Physical Processes Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, N. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2014-12-01

While the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal variability (BSISV) exerts profound influence on the south Asian monsoon, the capability of present day dynamical models in simulating and predicting the BSISV is still limited. The global model evaluation project on vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is a joint venture, coordinated by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) MJO Task Force and GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) program, for assessing the model deficiencies in simulating the ISV and for improving our understanding of the underlying processes. In this study the simulation of the northward propagating BSISV is investigated in 26 climate models with special focus on the vertical diabatic heating structure and clouds. Following parallel lines of inquiry as the MJO Task Force has done with the eastward propagating MJO, we utilize previously proposed and newly developed model performance metrics and process diagnostics and apply them to the global climate model simulations of BSISV.

Dynamic Modeling, Controls, and Testing for Electrified Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connolly, Joseph; Stalcup, Erik

2017-01-01

Electrified aircraft have the potential to provide significant benefits for efficiency and emissions reductions. To assess these potential benefits, modeling tools are needed to provide rapid evaluation of diverse concepts and to ensure safe operability and peak performance over the mission. The modeling challenge for these vehicles is the ability to show significant benefits over the current highly refined aircraft systems. The STARC-ABL (single-aisle turbo-electric aircraft with an aft boundary layer propulsor) is a new test proposal that builds upon previous N3-X team hybrid designs. This presentation describes the STARC-ABL concept, the NASA Electric Aircraft Testbed (NEAT) which will allow testing of the STARC-ABL powertrain, and the related modeling and simulation efforts to date. Modeling and simulation includes a turbofan simulation, Numeric Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS), which has been integrated with NEAT; and a power systems and control model for predicting testbed performance and evaluating control schemes. Model predictions provide good comparisons with testbed data for an NPSS-integrated test of the single-string configuration of NEAT.

Evaluation of a numerical model's ability to predict bed load transport observed in braided river experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter

2018-05-01

New data collection techniques offer numerical modelers the ability to gather and utilize high quality data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution. Such data sets are currently needed for calibration, verification, and to fuel future model development, particularly morphological simulations. This study explores the use of high quality spatial and temporal data sets of observed bed load transport in braided river flume experiments to evaluate the ability of a two-dimensional model, Delft3D, to predict bed load transport. This study uses a fixed bed model configuration and examines the model's shear stress calculations, which are the foundation to predict the sediment fluxes necessary for morphological simulations. The evaluation is conducted for three flow rates, and model setup used highly accurate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) topography and discharge boundary conditions. The model was hydraulically calibrated using bed roughness, and performance was evaluated based on depth and inundation agreement. Model bed load performance was evaluated in terms of critical shear stress exceedance area compared to maps of observed bed mobility in a flume. Following the standard hydraulic calibration, bed load performance was tested for sensitivity to horizontal eddy viscosity parameterization and bed morphology updating. Simulations produced depth errors equal to the SfM inherent errors, inundation agreement of 77-85%, and critical shear stress exceedance in agreement with 49-68% of the observed active area. This study provides insight into the ability of physically based, two-dimensional simulations to accurately predict bed load as well as the effects of horizontal eddy viscosity and bed updating. Further, this study highlights how using high spatial and temporal data to capture the physical processes at work during flume experiments can help to improve morphological modeling.

Large Eddy Simulation of Transitional Flow in an Idealized Stenotic Blood Vessel: Evaluation of Subgrid Scale Models

PubMed Central

Pal, Abhro; Anupindi, Kameswararao; Delorme, Yann; Ghaisas, Niranjan; Shetty, Dinesh A.; Frankel, Steven H.

2014-01-01

In the present study, we performed large eddy simulation (LES) of axisymmetric, and 75% stenosed, eccentric arterial models with steady inflow conditions at a Reynolds number of 1000. The results obtained are compared with the direct numerical simulation (DNS) data (Varghese et al., 2007, “Direct Numerical Simulation of Stenotic Flows. Part 1. Steady Flow,” J. Fluid Mech., 582, pp. 253–280). An inhouse code (WenoHemo) employing high-order numerical methods for spatial and temporal terms, along with a 2nd order accurate ghost point immersed boundary method (IBM) (Mark, and Vanwachem, 2008, “Derivation and Validation of a Novel Implicit Second-Order Accurate Immersed Boundary Method,” J. Comput. Phys., 227(13), pp. 6660–6680) for enforcing boundary conditions on curved geometries is used for simulations. Three subgrid scale (SGS) models, namely, the classical Smagorinsky model (Smagorinsky, 1963, “General Circulation Experiments With the Primitive Equations,” Mon. Weather Rev., 91(10), pp. 99–164), recently developed Vreman model (Vreman, 2004, “An Eddy-Viscosity Subgrid-Scale Model for Turbulent Shear Flow: Algebraic Theory and Applications,” Phys. Fluids, 16(10), pp. 3670–3681), and the Sigma model (Nicoud et al., 2011, “Using Singular Values to Build a Subgrid-Scale Model for Large Eddy Simulations,” Phys. Fluids, 23(8), 085106) are evaluated in the present study. Evaluation of SGS models suggests that the classical constant coefficient Smagorinsky model gives best agreement with the DNS data, whereas the Vreman and Sigma models predict an early transition to turbulence in the poststenotic region. Supplementary simulations are performed using Open source field operation and manipulation (OpenFOAM) (“OpenFOAM,” http://www.openfoam.org/) solver and the results are inline with those obtained with WenoHemo. PMID:24801556

Composite Load Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, Hing W.; Newell, James F.

1994-01-01

Generic load models are described with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra (CLS) that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts. These generic (coupled) models combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients are then determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. The entire simulation process is included in a CLS computer code. Applications of the computer code to various components in conjunction with the PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method) to perform probabilistic load evaluation and life prediction evaluations are also described to illustrate the effectiveness of the coupled model approach.

Discrete event simulation modelling of patient service management with Arena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guseva, Elena; Varfolomeyeva, Tatyana; Efimova, Irina; Movchan, Irina

2018-05-01

This paper describes the simulation modeling methodology aimed to aid in solving the practical problems of the research and analysing the complex systems. The paper gives the review of a simulation platform sand example of simulation model development with Arena 15.0 (Rockwell Automation).The provided example of the simulation model for the patient service management helps to evaluate the workload of the clinic doctors, determine the number of the general practitioners, surgeons, traumatologists and other specialized doctors required for the patient service and develop recommendations to ensure timely delivery of medical care and improve the efficiency of the clinic operation.

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - calibration Report for Phoenix Testbed : Final Report. [supporting datasets - Phoenix Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of FHWA-JPO-16-379, Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Program...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs — summary report for the Chicago testbed. [supporting datasets - Chicago Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

Analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) testbed development and evaluation to support dynamic mobility applications (DMA) and active transportation and demand management (ATDM) programs : Dallas testbed analysis plan. [supporting datasets - Dallas Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-26

The datasets in this zip file are in support of Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) report FHWA-JPO-16-385, "Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applica...

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Programs - San Mateo Testbed Analysis Plan [supporting datasets - San Mateo Testbed

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-26

This zip file contains files of data to support FHWA-JPO-16-370, Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) Testbed Development and Evaluation to Support Dynamic Mobility Applications (DMA) and Active Transportation and Demand Management (ATDM) Program...

Development and Evaluation of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Model v3.6

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS v3.6. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and BEIS v3.6 in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observati...

Simulation of plastic surgery and microvascular procedures using perfused fresh human cadavers.

PubMed

Carey, Joseph N; Rommer, Elizabeth; Sheckter, Clifford; Minneti, Michael; Talving, Peep; Wong, Alex K; Garner, Warren; Urata, Mark M

2014-02-01

Surgical simulation models are often limited by their lack of fidelity, which hinders their essential purpose, making a better surgeon. Fresh cadaveric tissue is a superior model of simulation owing to its approximation of live tissue. One major unresolved difference between dead and live tissue is perfusion. Here, we propose a means of enhancing the fidelity of cadaveric simulation through the development of a perfused cadaveric model whereby simulation is further able to approach life-like surgery and teach one of the more technically demanding skills of plastic surgery: microsurgery. Fresh tissue human cadavers were procured according to university protocol. Perfusion was performed via cannulation of large vessels, and arterial and venous pressure was maintained by centrifugal circulation. Skin perfusion was evaluated with incisions in the perfused regions and was evaluated using indocyanine green angiography. Surgical simulations were selected to broadly evaluate applicability to plastic surgical education. Surgical simulation of 38 procedures ranging in complexity from skin excisions to microsurgical cases was performed with high priority given to the accurate simulation of clinical procedures. Flap dissections included perforator flaps, muscle flaps, and fasciocutaneous flaps. Effective perfusion was noted with ICG angiography and notable bleeding vessels. Microsurgical flap transfer was successfully performed. We report the establishment of a high fidelity surgical simulation using a perfused fresh tissue model in a realistic environment akin to the operating room. We anticipate utilization of this model prior to entering the operating room will enhance surgical ability and offer a valuable resource in plastic surgical education. Copyright © 2013 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Simulation and data analysis of stereological modeling based on virtual slices].

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Shen, Hong; Bai, Xiao-yan

2008-05-01

To establish a computer-assisted stereological model for simulating the process of slice section and evaluate the relationship between section surface and estimated three-dimensional structure. The model was designed by mathematic method as a win32 software based on the MFC using Microsoft visual studio as IDE for simulating the infinite process of sections and analysis of the data derived from the model. The linearity of the fitting of the model was evaluated by comparison with the traditional formula. The win32 software based on this algorithm allowed random sectioning of the particles distributed randomly in an ideal virtual cube. The stereological parameters showed very high throughput (>94.5% and 92%) in homogeneity and independence tests. The data of density, shape and size of the section were tested to conform to normal distribution. The output of the model and that from the image analysis system showed statistical correlation and consistency. The algorithm we described can be used for evaluating the stereologic parameters of the structure of tissue slices.

Digital Rock Simulation of Flow in Carbonate Samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemin, D.; Andersen, M.

2014-12-01

Reservoir engineering has becomes more complex to deal with current challenges, so core analysts must understand and model pore geometries and fluid behaviors at pores scales more rapidly and realistically. We introduce an industry-unique direct hydrodynamic pore flow simulator that operates on pore geometries from digital rock models obtained using microCT or 3D scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. The PVT and rheological models used in the simulator represent real reservoir fluids. Fluid-solid interactions are introduced using distributed micro-scale wetting properties. The simulator uses density functional approach applied for hydrodynamics of complex systems. This talk covers selected applications of the simulator. We performed microCT scanning of six different carbonate rock samples from homogeneous limestones to vuggy carbonates. From these, we constructed digital rock models representing pore geometries for the simulator. We simulated nonreactive tracer flow in all six digital models using a digital fluid description that included a passive tracer solution. During the simulation, we evaluated the composition of the effluent. Results of tracer flow simulations corresponded well with experimental data of nonreactive tracer floods for the same carbonate rock types. This simulation data of the non-reactive tracer flow can be used to calculate the volume of the rock accessible by the fluid, which can be further used to predict response of a porous medium to a reactive fluid. The described digital core analysis workflow provides a basis for a wide variety of activities, including input to design acidizing jobs and evaluating treatment efficiency and EOR economics. Digital rock multiphase flow simulations of a scanned carbonate rock evaluated the effect of wettability on flow properties. Various wetting properties were tested: slightly oil wet, slightly water wet, and water wet. Steady-state relative permeability simulations yielded curves for all three ranges of wetting properties. The wetting variation affected phase mobility and residual phase saturations for primary oil flood and floods with varying ratios of oil and water.

Neural network simulation of soil NO3 dynamic under potato crop system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulet-Fortin, Jérôme; Morais, Anne; Anctil, François; Parent, Léon-Étienne; Bolinder, Martin

2013-04-01

Nitrate leaching is a major issue in sandy soils intensively cropped to potato. Modelling could test and improve management practices, particularly as regard to the optimal N application rates. Lack of input data is an important barrier for the application of classical process-based models to predict soil NO3 content (SNOC) and NO3 leaching (NOL). Alternatively, data driven models such as neural networks (NN) could better take into account indicators of spatial soil heterogeneity and plant growth pattern such as the leaf area index (LAI), hence reducing the amount of soil information required. The first objective of this study was to evaluate NN and hybrid models to simulate SNOC in the 0-40 cm soil layer considering inter-annual variations, spatial soil heterogeneity and differential N application rates. The second objective was to evaluate the same methodology to simulate seasonal NOL dynamic at 1 m deep. To this aim, multilayer perceptrons with different combinations of driving meteorological variables, functions of the LAI and state variables of external deterministic models have been trained and evaluated. The state variables from external models were: drainage estimated by the CLASS model and the soil temperature estimated by an ICBM subroutine. Results of SNOC simulations were compared to field data collected between 2004 and 2011 at several experimental plots under potato cropping systems in Québec, Eastern Canada. Results of NOL simulation were compared to data obtained in 2012 from 11 suction lysimeters installed in 2 experimental plots under potato cropping systems in the same region. The most performing model for SNOC simulation was obtained using a 4-input hybrid model composed of 1) cumulative LAI, 2) cumulative drainage, 3) soil temperature and 4) day of year. The most performing model for NOL simulation was obtained using a 5-input NN model composed of 1) N fertilization rate at spring, 2) LAI, 3) cumulative rainfall, 4) the day of year and 5) the percentage of clay content. The MAE was 22% for SNOC simulation and 23% for NOL simulation. High sensitivity to LAI suggests that the model may take into account field and sub-field spatial variability and support N management. Further studies are needed to fully validate the method, particularly in the case of NOL simulation.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance Models in ACES: Design Implementation and Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kubat, Greg; Vandrei, Don; Satapathy, Goutam; Kumar, Anil; Khanna, Manu

2006-01-01

Presentation objectives include: a) Overview of the ACES/CNS System Models Design and Integration; b) Configuration Capabilities available for Models and Simulations using ACES with CNS Modeling; c) Descriptions of recently added, Enhanced CNS Simulation Capabilities; and d) General Concepts Ideas that Utilize CNS Modeling to Enhance Concept Evaluations.

Ammonia emission model for whole farm evaluation of dairy production systems.

PubMed

Rotz, C Alan; Montes, Felipe; Hafner, Sasha D; Heber, Albert J; Grant, Richard H

2014-07-01

Ammonia (NH) emissions vary considerably among farms as influenced by climate and management. Because emission measurement is difficult and expensive, process-based models provide an alternative for estimating whole farm emissions. A model that simulates the processes of NH formation, speciation, aqueous-gas partitioning, and mass transfer was developed and incorporated in a whole farm simulation model (the Integrated Farm System Model). Farm sources included manure on the floor of the housing facility, manure in storage (if used), field-applied manure, and deposits on pasture (if grazing is used). In a comprehensive evaluation of the model, simulated daily, seasonal, and annual emissions compared well with data measured over 2 yr for five free stall barns and two manure storages on dairy farms in the eastern United States. In a further comparison with published data, simulated and measured barn emissions were similar over differing barn designs, protein feeding levels, and seasons of the year. Simulated emissions from manure storage were also highly correlated with published emission data across locations, seasons, and different storage covers. For field applied manure, the range in simulated annual emissions normally bounded reported mean values for different manure dry matter contents and application methods. Emissions from pastures measured in northern Europe across seasons and fertilization levels were also represented well by the model. After this evaluation, simulations of a representative dairy farm in Pennsylvania illustrated the effects of animal housing and manure management on whole farm emissions and their interactions with greenhouse gas emissions, nitrate leaching, production costs, and farm profitability. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

2015-12-01

Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

Poisson regression models outperform the geometrical model in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Christensen, A L; Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C

2011-12-01

Several statistical methods of assessing seasonal variation are available. Brookhart and Rothman [3] proposed a second-order moment-based estimator based on the geometrical model derived by Edwards [1], and reported that this estimator is superior in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation compared with Edwards' estimator with respect to bias and mean squared error. Alternatively, seasonal variation may be modelled using a Poisson regression model, which provides flexibility in modelling the pattern of seasonal variation and adjustments for covariates. Based on a Monte Carlo simulation study three estimators, one based on the geometrical model, and two based on log-linear Poisson regression models, were evaluated in regards to bias and standard deviation (SD). We evaluated the estimators on data simulated according to schemes varying in seasonal variation and presence of a secular trend. All methods and analyses in this paper are available in the R package Peak2Trough[13]. Applying a Poisson regression model resulted in lower absolute bias and SD for data simulated according to the corresponding model assumptions. Poisson regression models had lower bias and SD for data simulated to deviate from the corresponding model assumptions than the geometrical model. This simulation study encourages the use of Poisson regression models in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation as opposed to the geometrical model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

GAMETES: a fast, direct algorithm for generating pure, strict, epistatic models with random architectures.

PubMed

Urbanowicz, Ryan J; Kiralis, Jeff; Sinnott-Armstrong, Nicholas A; Heberling, Tamra; Fisher, Jonathan M; Moore, Jason H

2012-10-01

Geneticists who look beyond single locus disease associations require additional strategies for the detection of complex multi-locus effects. Epistasis, a multi-locus masking effect, presents a particular challenge, and has been the target of bioinformatic development. Thorough evaluation of new algorithms calls for simulation studies in which known disease models are sought. To date, the best methods for generating simulated multi-locus epistatic models rely on genetic algorithms. However, such methods are computationally expensive, difficult to adapt to multiple objectives, and unlikely to yield models with a precise form of epistasis which we refer to as pure and strict. Purely and strictly epistatic models constitute the worst-case in terms of detecting disease associations, since such associations may only be observed if all n-loci are included in the disease model. This makes them an attractive gold standard for simulation studies considering complex multi-locus effects. We introduce GAMETES, a user-friendly software package and algorithm which generates complex biallelic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) disease models for simulation studies. GAMETES rapidly and precisely generates random, pure, strict n-locus models with specified genetic constraints. These constraints include heritability, minor allele frequencies of the SNPs, and population prevalence. GAMETES also includes a simple dataset simulation strategy which may be utilized to rapidly generate an archive of simulated datasets for given genetic models. We highlight the utility and limitations of GAMETES with an example simulation study using MDR, an algorithm designed to detect epistasis. GAMETES is a fast, flexible, and precise tool for generating complex n-locus models with random architectures. While GAMETES has a limited ability to generate models with higher heritabilities, it is proficient at generating the lower heritability models typically used in simulation studies evaluating new algorithms. In addition, the GAMETES modeling strategy may be flexibly combined with any dataset simulation strategy. Beyond dataset simulation, GAMETES could be employed to pursue theoretical characterization of genetic models and epistasis.

Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J. A.

A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

Evaluating simulations of daily discharge from large watersheds using autoregression and an index of flashiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed models are calibrated to simulate stream discharge as accurately as possible. Modelers will often calculate model validation statistics on aggregate (often monthly) time periods, rather than the daily step at which models typically operate. This is because daily hydrologic data exhibit lar...

SIMULATION MODEL FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING. VOLUME 2. MODEL USER MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

This report provides a user manual for the hydrologic, nonpoint source pollution simulation of the generalized planning model for evaluating forest and farming management alternatives. The manual contains an explanation of application of specific code and indicates changes that s...

Counterfactual simulations applied to SHRP2 crashes: The effect of driver behavior models on safety benefit estimations of intelligent safety systems.

PubMed

Bärgman, Jonas; Boda, Christian-Nils; Dozza, Marco

2017-05-01

As the development and deployment of in-vehicle intelligent safety systems (ISS) for crash avoidance and mitigation have rapidly increased in the last decades, the need to evaluate their prospective safety benefits before introduction has never been higher. Counterfactual simulations using relevant mathematical models (for vehicle dynamics, sensors, the environment, ISS algorithms, and models of driver behavior) have been identified as having high potential. However, although most of these models are relatively mature, models of driver behavior in the critical seconds before a crash are still relatively immature. There are also large conceptual differences between different driver models. The objective of this paper is, firstly, to demonstrate the importance of the choice of driver model when counterfactual simulations are used to evaluate two ISS: Forward collision warning (FCW), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Secondly, the paper demonstrates how counterfactual simulations can be used to perform sensitivity analyses on parameter settings, both for driver behavior and ISS algorithms. Finally, the paper evaluates the effect of the choice of glance distribution in the driver behavior model on the safety benefit estimation. The paper uses pre-crash kinematics and driver behavior from 34 rear-end crashes from the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study for the demonstrations. The results for FCW show a large difference in the percent of avoided crashes between conceptually different models of driver behavior, while differences were small for conceptually similar models. As expected, the choice of model of driver behavior did not affect AEB benefit much. Based on our results, researchers and others who aim to evaluate ISS with the driver in the loop through counterfactual simulations should be sure to make deliberate and well-grounded choices of driver models: the choice of model matters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, J.; Polly, B.; Collis, J.

2013-09-01

This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define 'explicit' input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAEmore » 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.« less

Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

and Ben Polly, Joseph Robertson; Polly, Ben; Collis, Jon

2013-09-01

This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define "explicit" input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAEmore » 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.« less

The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne; Stolarski, Richard; Oman, Luke; Strahan, Susan

2012-01-01

The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.

Leveraging simulation to evaluate system performance in presence of fixed pattern noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teaney, Brian P.

2017-05-01

The development of image simulation techniques which map the effects of a notional, modeled sensor system onto an existing image can be used to evaluate the image quality of camera systems prior to the development of prototype systems. In addition, image simulation or `virtual prototyping' can be utilized to reduce the time and expense associated with conducting extensive field trials. In this paper we examine the development of a perception study designed to assess the performance of the NVESD imager performance metrics as a function of fixed pattern noise. This paper discusses the development of the model theory and the implementation and execution of the perception study. In addition, other applications of the image simulation component including the evaluation of limiting resolution and other test targets is provided.

Improving the Spacelab mass memory unit tape layout with a simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noneman, S. R.

1984-01-01

A tape drive called the Mass Memory Unit (MMU) stores software used by Spacelab computers. MMU tape motion must be minimized during typical flight operations to avoid a loss of scientific data. A projection of the tape motion is needed for evaluation of candidate tape layouts. A computer simulation of the scheduled and unscheduled MMU tape accesses is developed for this purpose. This simulation permits evaluations of candidate tape layouts by tracking and summarizing tape movements. The factors that affect tape travel are investigated and a heuristic is developed to find a good tape layout. An improved tape layout for Spacelab I is selected after the evaluation of fourteen candidates. The simulation model will provide the ability to determine MMU layouts that substantially decrease the tape travel on future Spacelab flights.

The use of discrete-event simulation modeling to compare handwritten and electronic prescribing systems.

PubMed

Ghany, Ahmad; Vassanji, Karim; Kuziemsky, Craig; Keshavjee, Karim

2013-01-01

Electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) is expected to bring many benefits to Canadian healthcare, such as a reduction in errors and adverse drug reactions. As there currently is no functioning e-prescribing system in Canada that is completely electronic, we are unable to evaluate the performance of a live system. An alternative approach is to use simulation modeling for evaluation. We developed two discrete-event simulation models, one of the current handwritten prescribing system and one of a proposed e-prescribing system, to compare the performance of these two systems. We were able to compare the number of processes in each model, workflow efficiency, and the distribution of patients or prescriptions. Although we were able to compare these models to each other, using discrete-event simulation software was challenging. We were limited in the number of variables we could measure. We discovered non-linear processes and feedback loops in both models that could not be adequately represented using discrete-event simulation software. Finally, interactions between entities in both models could not be modeled using this type of software. We have come to the conclusion that a more appropriate approach to modeling both the handwritten and electronic prescribing systems would be to use a complex adaptive systems approach using agent-based modeling or systems-based modeling.

Simbol-X Formation Flight and Image Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civitani, M.; Djalal, S.; Le Duigou, J. M.; La Marle, O.; Chipaux, R.

2009-05-01

Simbol-X is the first operational mission relying on two satellites flying in formation. The dynamics of the telescope, due to the formation flight concept, raises a variety of problematic, like image reconstruction, that can be better evaluated via a simulation tools. We present here the first results obtained with Simulos, simulation tool aimed to study the relative spacecrafts navigation and the weight of the different parameters in image reconstruction and telescope performance evaluation. The simulation relies on attitude and formation flight sensors models, formation flight dynamics and control, mirror model and focal plane model, while the image reconstruction is based on the Line of Sight (LOS) concept.

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

CFD simulation of an unbaffled stirred tank reactor driven by a magnetic rod: assessment of turbulence models.

PubMed

Li, Jiajia; Deng, Baoqing; Zhang, Bing; Shen, Xiuzhong; Kim, Chang Nyung

2015-01-01

A simulation of an unbaffled stirred tank reactor driven by a magnetic stirring rod was carried out in a moving reference frame. The free surface of unbaffled stirred tank was captured by Euler-Euler model coupled with the volume of fluid (VOF) method. The re-normalization group (RNG) k-ɛ model, large eddy simulation (LES) model and detached eddy simulation (DES) model were evaluated for simulating the flow field in the stirred tank. All turbulence models can reproduce the tangential velocity in an unbaffled stirred tank with a rotational speed of 150 rpm, 250 rpm and 400 rpm, respectively. Radial velocity is underpredicted by the three models. LES model and RNG k-ɛ model predict the better tangential velocity and axial velocity, respectively. RNG k-ɛ model is recommended for the simulation of the flow in an unbaffled stirred tank with magnetic rod due to its computational effort.

CFD analysis of the plate heat exchanger - Mathematical modelling of mass and heat transfer in serial connection with tubular heat exchanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojko, Marian; Kocich, Radim

2016-06-01

Application of numerical simulations based on the CFD calculation when the mass and heat transfer between the fluid flows is essential component of thermal calculation. In this article the mathematical model of the heat exchanger is defined, which is subsequently applied to the plate heat exchanger, which is connected in series with the other heat exchanger (tubular heat exchanger). The present contribution deals with the possibility to use the waste heat of the flue gas produced by small micro turbine. Inlet boundary conditions to the mathematical model of the plate heat exchanger are obtained from the results of numerical simulation of the tubular heat exchanger. Required parameters such for example inlet temperature was evaluated from temperature field, which was subsequently imported to the inlet boundary condition to the simulation of plate heat exchanger. From the results of 3D numerical simulations are evaluated basic flow variables including the evaluation of dimensionless parameters such as Colburn j-factor and friction ft factor. Numerical simulation is realized by software ANSYS Fluent15.0.

Simulation and evaluation of rupturable coated capsules by finite element method.

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Fang, Jie; Shen, Lian; Shan, Weiguang

2017-03-15

The objective of this study was to simulate and evaluate the burst behavior of rupturable coated capsules by finite element method (FEM). Film and coated capsules were prepared by dip-coating method and their dimensions were determined by stereomicroscope. Mechanical properties of the film were measured by tensile test and used as material properties of FEM models. Swelling pressure was determined by restrained expansion method and applied to the internal surface of FEM models. Water uptake of coated capsules was determined to study the formation of internal pressure. Burst test and in vitro dissolution was used to verify the FEM models, which were used to study and predict the coating burst behavior. Simulated results of coating burst behavior were well agreed with the experiment results. Swelling pressure, material properties and dimensions of coating had influence on the maximum stress. Burst pressure and critical L-HPC content were calculated for burst prediction and formulation optimization. FEM simulation was a feasible way to simulate and evaluate the burst behavior of coated capsules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the Response of a Composite Honeycomb Energy Absorber. Part 2; Full-Scale Impact Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Annett, Martin S.; Jackson, Karen E.; Polanco, Michael A.

2012-01-01

NASA has sponsored research to evaluate an externally deployable composite honeycomb designed to attenuate loads in the event of a helicopter crash. The concept, designated the Deployable Energy Absorber (DEA), is an expandable Kevlar(Registered TradeMark) honeycomb. The DEA has a flexible hinge that allows the honeycomb to be stowed collapsed until needed during an emergency. Evaluation of the DEA began with material characterization of the Kevlar(Registered TradeMark)-129 fabric/epoxy, and ended with a full-scale crash test of a retrofitted MD-500 helicopter. During each evaluation phase, finite element models of the test articles were developed and simulations were performed using the dynamic finite element code, LS-DYNA(Registered TradeMark). The paper will focus on simulations of two full-scale impact tests involving the DEA, a mass-simulator and a full-scale crash of an instrumented MD-500 helicopter. Isotropic (MAT24) and composite (MAT58) material models, which were assigned to DEA shell elements, were compared. Based on simulations results, the MAT58 model showed better agreement with test.

High frequency dynamic engine simulation. [TF-30 engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuerman, J. A.; Fischer, K. E.; Mclaughlin, P. W.

1977-01-01

A digital computer simulation of a mixed flow, twin spool turbofan engine was assembled to evaluate and improve the dynamic characteristics of the engine simulation to disturbance frequencies of at least 100 Hz. One dimensional forms of the dynamic mass, momentum and energy equations were used to model the engine. A TF30 engine was simulated so that dynamic characteristics could be evaluated against results obtained from testing of the TF30 engine at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Dynamic characteristics of the engine simulation were improved by modifying the compression system model. Modifications to the compression system model were established by investigating the influence of size and number of finite dynamic elements. Based on the results of this program, high frequency engine simulations using finite dynamic elements can be assembled so that the engine dynamic configuration is optimum with respect to dynamic characteristics and computer execution time. Resizing of the compression systems finite elements improved the dynamic characteristics of the engine simulation but showed that additional refinements are required to obtain close agreement simulation and actual engine dynamic characteristics.

Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington USA

Treesearch

Susan Hummel; Maureen Kennedy; E. Ashley Steel

2012-01-01

Given that resource managers rely on computer simulation models when it is difficult or expensive to obtain vital information directly, it is important to evaluate how well a particular model satisfies applications for which it is designed. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is used widely for forest management in the US, and its scope and complexity continue to...

DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model.

PubMed

Schils, R L M; de Haan, M H A; Hemmer, J G A; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A; de Boer, J A; Evers, A G; Holshof, G; van Middelkoop, J C; Zom, R L G

2007-11-01

A whole-farm dairy model was developed and evaluated. The DairyWise model is an empirical model that simulated technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balanced the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of homegrown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and corn silage. The output of the FeedSupply model was used as input for several technical, environmental, and economic submodels. The submodels simulated a range of farm aspects such as nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, nitrate leaching, ammonia emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and a financial farm budget. The final output was a farm plan describing all material and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. Evaluation of DairyWise was performed with 2 data sets consisting of 29 dairy farms. The evaluation showed that DairyWise was able to simulate gross margin, concentrate intake, nitrogen surplus, nitrate concentration in ground water, and crop yields. The variance accounted for ranged from 37 to 84%, and the mean differences between modeled and observed values varied between -5 to +3% per set of farms. We conclude that DairyWise is a powerful tool for integrated scenario development and evaluation for scientists, policy makers, extension workers, teachers and farmers.

A discrete event simulation model for evaluating the performances of an m/g/c/c state dependent queuing system.

PubMed

Khalid, Ruzelan; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal M; Kawsar, Luthful A; Ghani, Noraida A; Kamil, Anton A; Mustafa, Adli

2013-01-01

M/G/C/C state dependent queuing networks consider service rates as a function of the number of residing entities (e.g., pedestrians, vehicles, and products). However, modeling such dynamic rates is not supported in modern Discrete Simulation System (DES) software. We designed an approach to cater this limitation and used it to construct the M/G/C/C state-dependent queuing model in Arena software. Using the model, we have evaluated and analyzed the impacts of various arrival rates to the throughput, the blocking probability, the expected service time and the expected number of entities in a complex network topology. Results indicated that there is a range of arrival rates for each network where the simulation results fluctuate drastically across replications and this causes the simulation results and analytical results exhibit discrepancies. Detail results that show how tally the simulation results and the analytical results in both abstract and graphical forms and some scientific justifications for these have been documented and discussed.

Characterizing ponds in watershed simulations and evaluating their influence on streamflowin a Mississippi Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Small water bodies are common landscape features, but often are not simulated within a watershed modeling framework. The wetland modeling tool, AgWET, uses a GIS framework to characterize the features of ponds and wetlands so that they can be incorporated into watershed simulations using the Annuali...

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

Evaluation of UTLS Carbon Monoxide Simulations in GMI and GEOS-Chem Chemical Transport Models using Aura MLS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Lei; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Murray, Lee T.; Damon, Megan R.; Su, Hui; Livesey, Nathaniel J.

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the distribution and variation of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during 2004-2012 as simulated by two chemical transport models, using the latest version of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. The simulated spatial distributions, temporal variations and vertical transport of CO in the UTLS region are compared with those observed by MLS. We also investigate the impact of surface emissions and deep convection on CO concentrations in the UTLS over different regions, using both model simulations and MLS observations. Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and GEOS-Chem simulations of UTLS CO both show similar spatial distributions to observations. The global mean CO values simulated by both models agree with MLS observations at 215 and 147 hPa, but are significantly underestimated by more than 40% at 100 hPa. In addition, the models underestimate the peak CO values by up to 70% at 100 hPa, 60% at 147 hPa and 40% at 215 hPa, with GEOS-Chem generally simulating more CO at 100 hPa and less CO at 215 hPa than GMI. The seasonal distributions of CO simulated by both models are in better agreement with MLS in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with disagreements between model and observations over enhanced CO regions such as southern Africa. The simulated vertical transport of CO shows better agreement with MLS in the tropics and the SH subtropics than the NH subtropics. We also examine regional variations in the relationships among surface CO emission, convection and UTLS CO concentrations. The two models exhibit emission-convection- CO relationships similar to those observed by MLS over the tropics and some regions with enhanced UTLS CO.

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental United States: New approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and determining confidence limits for ozone exceedances

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be ...

Generating Nonnormal Multivariate Data Using Copulas: Applications to SEM.

PubMed

Mair, Patrick; Satorra, Albert; Bentler, Peter M

2012-07-01

This article develops a procedure based on copulas to simulate multivariate nonnormal data that satisfy a prespecified variance-covariance matrix. The covariance matrix used can comply with a specific moment structure form (e.g., a factor analysis or a general structural equation model). Thus, the method is particularly useful for Monte Carlo evaluation of structural equation models within the context of nonnormal data. The new procedure for nonnormal data simulation is theoretically described and also implemented in the widely used R environment. The quality of the method is assessed by Monte Carlo simulations. A 1-sample test on the observed covariance matrix based on the copula methodology is proposed. This new test for evaluating the quality of a simulation is defined through a particular structural model specification and is robust against normality violations.

Verification technology of remote sensing camera satellite imaging simulation based on ray tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Qiongqiong; Chen, Xiaomei; Yang, Deyun

2017-08-01

Remote sensing satellite camera imaging simulation technology is broadly used to evaluate the satellite imaging quality and to test the data application system. But the simulation precision is hard to examine. In this paper, we propose an experimental simulation verification method, which is based on the test parameter variation comparison. According to the simulation model based on ray-tracing, the experiment is to verify the model precision by changing the types of devices, which are corresponding the parameters of the model. The experimental results show that the similarity between the imaging model based on ray tracing and the experimental image is 91.4%, which can simulate the remote sensing satellite imaging system very well.

Using multi-criteria analysis of simulation models to understand complex biological systems

Treesearch

Maureen C. Kennedy; E. David Ford

2011-01-01

Scientists frequently use computer-simulation models to help solve complex biological problems. Typically, such models are highly integrated, they produce multiple outputs, and standard methods of model analysis are ill suited for evaluating them. We show how multi-criteria optimization with Pareto optimality allows for model outputs to be compared to multiple system...

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will performed two CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the new version of the CMAQ model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation are compared to observations and the performance of t...

Preliminary Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will perform two annual CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the beta version of the new model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation will then be compared to observations and the pe...

Simulation and performance of brushless dc motor actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerba, A., Jr.

1985-12-01

The simulation model for a Brushless D.C. Motor and the associated commutation power conditioner transistor model are presented. The necessary conditions for maximum power output while operating at steady-state speed and sinusoidally distributed air-gap flux are developed. Comparison of simulated model with the measured performance of a typical motor are done both on time response waveforms and on average performance characteristics. These preliminary results indicate good agreement. Plans for model improvement and testing of a motor-driven positioning device for model evaluation are outlined.

Computational Evaluation of the Traceback Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kol, Sheli; Nir, Bracha; Wintner, Shuly

2014-01-01

Several models of language acquisition have emerged in recent years that rely on computational algorithms for simulation and evaluation. Computational models are formal and precise, and can thus provide mathematically well-motivated insights into the process of language acquisition. Such models are amenable to robust computational evaluation,…

“Overview and Evaluation of AQMEII Phase 2 Coupled Simulations over North America”

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation provides an overview of the second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initative (AQMEII). Activities in this phase are focused on the application and evaluation of coupled meteorology-chemistry models to assess how well these models can simu...

Critical evaluation of mechanistic two-phase flow pipeline and well simulation models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhulesia, H.; Lopez, D.

1996-12-31

Mechanistic steady state simulation models, rather than empirical correlations, are used for a design of multiphase production system including well, pipeline and downstream installations. Among the available models, PEPITE, WELLSIM, OLGA, TACITE and TUFFP are widely used for this purpose and consequently, a critical evaluation of these models is needed. An extensive validation methodology is proposed which consists of two distinct steps: first to validate the hydrodynamic point model using the test loop data and, then to validate the over-all simulation model using the real pipelines and wells data. The test loop databank used in this analysis contains about 5952more » data sets originated from four different test loops and a majority of these data are obtained at high pressures (up to 90 bars) with real hydrocarbon fluids. Before performing the model evaluation, physical analysis of the test loops data is required to eliminate non-coherent data. The evaluation of these point models demonstrates that the TACITE and OLGA models can be applied to any configuration of pipes. The TACITE model performs better than the OLGA model because it uses the most appropriate closure laws from the literature validated on a large number of data. The comparison of predicted and measured pressure drop for various real pipelines and wells demonstrates that the TACITE model is a reliable tool.« less

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-08-01

Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15%) with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled monthly soil moisture for the state of Illinois (US) agreed well (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.01) with observed data for the years 1984-2001. Overall, this study justifies both the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land covers into a DGVM and the reliability of LH to simulate land-surface water balances. To better estimate surface/river runoff at mid-to-high latitudes, we recommended that LPJ-DGVM considers the effects of solar radiation on snowmelt.

Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A reasonable representation of crop phenology and biophysical processes in land surface models is necessary to accurately simulate energy, water and carbon budgets at the field, regional, and global scales. However, the evaluation of crop models that can be coupled to earth system models is relative...

Evaluating the APEX model for simulating streamflow and water quality on ten agricultural watersheds in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation models are increasingly used to assess water quality constituent losses from agricultural systems. Mis-use often gives irrelevant or erroneous answers. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is emerging as one of the premier modeling tools for fields, farms, and agr...

Evaluation of infiltration models in contaminated landscape.

PubMed

Sadegh Zadeh, Kouroush; Shirmohammadi, Adel; Montas, Hubert J; Felton, Gary

2007-06-01

The infiltration models of Kostiakov, Green-Ampt, and Philip (two and three terms equations) were used, calibrated, and evaluated to simulate in-situ infiltration in nine different soil types. The Osborne-Moré modified version of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm was coupled with the experimental data obtained by the double ring infiltrometers and the infiltration equations, to estimate the model parameters. Comparison of the model outputs with the experimental data indicates that the models can successfully describe cumulative infiltration in different soil types. However, since Kostiakov's equation fails to accurately simulate the infiltration rate as time approaches infinity, Philip's two-term equation, in some cases, produces negative values for the saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils, and the Green-Ampt model uses piston flow assumptions, we suggest using Philip's three-term equation to simulate infiltration and to estimate the saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils.

Data-Driven Modeling and Rendering of Force Responses from Elastic Tool Deformation

PubMed Central

Rakhmatov, Ruslan; Ogay, Tatyana; Jeon, Seokhee

2018-01-01

This article presents a new data-driven model design for rendering force responses from elastic tool deformation. The new design incorporates a six-dimensional input describing the initial position of the contact, as well as the state of the tool deformation. The input-output relationship of the model was represented by a radial basis functions network, which was optimized based on training data collected from real tool-surface contact. Since the input space of the model is represented in the local coordinate system of a tool, the model is independent of recording and rendering devices and can be easily deployed to an existing simulator. The model also supports complex interactions, such as self and multi-contact collisions. In order to assess the proposed data-driven model, we built a custom data acquisition setup and developed a proof-of-concept rendering simulator. The simulator was evaluated through numerical and psychophysical experiments with four different real tools. The numerical evaluation demonstrated the perceptual soundness of the proposed model, meanwhile the user study revealed the force feedback of the proposed simulator to be realistic. PMID:29342964

THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION (AMET): METEOROLOGY MODULE

EPA Science Inventory

An Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET), composed of meteorological and air quality components, is being developed to examine the error and uncertainty in the model simulations. AMET matches observations with the corresponding model-estimated values in space and time, and the...

Simplified ISCCP cloud regimes for evaluating cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

We take advantage of ISCCP simulator data available for many models that participated in CMIP5, in order to introduce a framework for comparing model cloud output with corresponding ISCCP observations based on the cloud regime (CR) concept. Simplified global CRs are employed derived from the co-variations of three variables, namely cloud optical thickness, cloud top pressure and cloud fraction ( τ, p c , CF). Following evaluation criteria established in a companion paper of ours (Jin et al. 2016), we assess model cloud simulation performance based on how well the simplified CRs are simulated in terms of similarity of centroids, global values and map correlations of relative-frequency-of-occurrence, and long-term total cloud amounts. Mirroring prior results, modeled clouds tend to be too optically thick and not as extensive as in observations. CRs with high-altitude clouds from storm activity are not as well simulated here compared to the previous study, but other regimes containing near-overcast low clouds show improvement. Models that have performed well in the companion paper against CRs defined by joint τ- p c histograms distinguish themselves again here, but improvements for previously underperforming models are also seen. Averaging across models does not yield a drastically better picture, except for cloud geographical locations. Cloud evaluation with simplified regimes seems thus more forgiving than that using histogram-based CRs while still strict enough to reveal model weaknesses.

A School Finance Computer Simulation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boardman, Gerald R.

1974-01-01

Presents a description of the computer simulation model developed by the National Educational Finance Project for use by States in planning and evaluating alternative approaches for State support programs. Provides a general introduction to the model, a program operation overview, a sample run, and some conclusions. (Author/WM)

TOWARDS AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF SIMULATED AND OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION

EPA Science Inventory

The evaluation of climate model precipitation is expected to reveal biases in simulated mean and extreme precipitation which may be a result of coarse model resolution or inefficiencies in the precipitation generating mechanisms in models. The analysis of future extreme precip...

Feedbacks between Air Pollution and Weather, Part 1: Effects on Weather

EPA Science Inventory

The meteorological predictions of fully coupled air-quality models running in “feedback” versus “nofeedback” simulations were compared against each other as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. The model simulations included a “no-feedback...

An accurate behavioral model for single-photon avalanche diode statistical performance simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yue; Zhao, Tingchen; Li, Ding

2018-01-01

An accurate behavioral model is presented to simulate important statistical performance of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs), such as dark count and after-pulsing noise. The derived simulation model takes into account all important generation mechanisms of the two kinds of noise. For the first time, thermal agitation, trap-assisted tunneling and band-to-band tunneling mechanisms are simultaneously incorporated in the simulation model to evaluate dark count behavior of SPADs fabricated in deep sub-micron CMOS technology. Meanwhile, a complete carrier trapping and de-trapping process is considered in afterpulsing model and a simple analytical expression is derived to estimate after-pulsing probability. In particular, the key model parameters of avalanche triggering probability and electric field dependence of excess bias voltage are extracted from Geiger-mode TCAD simulation and this behavioral simulation model doesn't include any empirical parameters. The developed SPAD model is implemented in Verilog-A behavioral hardware description language and successfully operated on commercial Cadence Spectre simulator, showing good universality and compatibility. The model simulation results are in a good accordance with the test data, validating high simulation accuracy.

Evaluation of large-eddy simulations forced with mesoscale model output for a multi-week period during a measurement campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, Rieke; Moseley, Christopher; Böske, Lennart Nils; Muppa, Shravan Kumar; Maurer, Vera; Raasch, Siegfried; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-06-01

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of a multi-week period during the HD(CP)2 (High-Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction) Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) conducted in Germany are evaluated with respect to mean boundary layer quantities and turbulence statistics. Two LES models are used in a semi-idealized setup through forcing with mesoscale model output to account for the synoptic-scale conditions. Evaluation is performed based on the HOPE observations. The mean boundary layer characteristics like the boundary layer depth are in a principal agreement with observations. Simulating shallow-cumulus layers in agreement with the measurements poses a challenge for both LES models. Variance profiles agree satisfactorily with lidar measurements. The results depend on how the forcing data stemming from mesoscale model output are constructed. The mean boundary layer characteristics become less sensitive if the averaging domain for the forcing is large enough to filter out mesoscale fluctuations.

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

Evaluation of Disaster Preparedness Based on Simulation Exercises: A Comparison of Two Models.

PubMed

Rüter, Andres; Kurland, Lisa; Gryth, Dan; Murphy, Jason; Rådestad, Monica; Djalali, Ahmadreza

2016-08-01

The objective of this study was to highlight 2 models, the Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) and the Disaster Management Indicator model (DiMI), for evaluating the in-hospital management of a disaster situation through simulation exercises. Two disaster exercises, A and B, with similar scenarios were performed. Both exercises were evaluated with regard to actions, processes, and structures. After the exercises, the results were calculated and compared. In exercise A the HICS model indicated that 32% of the required positions for the immediate phase were taken under consideration with an average performance of 70%. For exercise B, the corresponding scores were 42% and 68%, respectively. According to the DiMI model, the results for exercise A were a score of 68% for management processes and 63% for management structure (staff skills). In B the results were 77% and 86%, respectively. Both models demonstrated acceptable results in relation to previous studies. More research in this area is needed to validate which of these methods best evaluates disaster preparedness based on simulation exercises or whether the methods are complementary and should therefore be used together. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:544-548).

Evaluation of the impact of carotid artery bifurcation angle on hemodynamics by use of computational fluid dynamics: a simulation and volunteer study.

PubMed

Saho, Tatsunori; Onishi, Hideo

2016-07-01

In this study, we evaluated the hemodynamics of carotid artery bifurcation with various geometries using simulated and volunteer models based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was analyzed by use of OpenFOAM. The velocity distribution, streamline, and wall shear stress (WSS) were evaluated in a simulated model with known bifurcation angles (30°, 40°, 50°, 60°, derived from patients' data) and in three-dimensional (3D) healthy volunteer models. Separated flow was observed at the outer side of the bifurcation, and large bifurcation models represented upstream transfer of the point. Local WSS values at the outer bifurcation [both simulated (<30 Pa) and volunteer (<50 Pa) models] were lower than those in the inner region (>100 Pa). The bifurcation angle had a significant negative correlation with the WSS value (p<0.05). The results of this study show that the carotid artery bifurcation angle is related to the WSS value. This suggests that hemodynamic stress can be estimated based on the carotid artery geometry. The construction of a clinical database for estimation of developing atherosclerosis is warranted.

Nonlinearity in Social Service Evaluation: A Primer on Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Israel, Nathaniel; Wolf-Branigin, Michael

2011-01-01

Measurement of nonlinearity in social service research and evaluation relies primarily on spatial analysis and, to a lesser extent, social network analysis. Recent advances in geographic methods and computing power, however, allow for the greater use of simulation methods. These advances now enable evaluators and researchers to simulate complex…

Evaluation of traffic signal timing optimization methods using a stochastic and microscopic simulation program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

This study evaluated existing traffic signal optimization programs including Synchro,TRANSYT-7F, and genetic algorithm optimization using real-world data collected in Virginia. As a first step, a microscopic simulation model, VISSIM, was extensively ...

Direct Operational Field Test Evaluation, Simulation And Modeling

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-08-01

THE PURPOSE OF THE SIMULATION EVALUATION IS TO ASSESS THE EXPECTED FUTURE IMPACTS OF THE DIRECT TECHNOLOGIES UNDER SCENARIOS OF FULL DEPLOYMENT. THIS PROVIDED SOME INDICATION OF THE LEVEL OF BENEFITS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DIRECT IN THE FUTURE. BE...

Digital simulation and experimental evaluation of the CO2-H(plus) control of pulmonary ventilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milhorn, H. T., Jr.; Reynolds, W. J.

1972-01-01

Previous models of the CO2-H(+) control of ventilation have been concerned either with the response to CO2 inhalation, or the response to perfusion of the surface of the medulla with mock cerebrospinal fluid having a high P sub CO2. Simulation of both responses with the same model has not been attempted. The purpose of the present study was two fold; first to develop such a model and, second, to obtain experimental data from human subjects for both developing this model and for evaluating this and future models.

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Probabilistic wind/tornado/missile analyses for hazard and fragility evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Y.J.; Reich, M.

Detailed analysis procedures and examples are presented for the probabilistic evaluation of hazard and fragility against high wind, tornado, and tornado-generated missiles. In the tornado hazard analysis, existing risk models are modified to incorporate various uncertainties including modeling errors. A significant feature of this paper is the detailed description of the Monte-Carlo simulation analyses of tornado-generated missiles. A simulation procedure, which includes the wind field modeling, missile injection, solution of flight equations, and missile impact analysis, is described with application examples.

Modelling the B2C Marketplace: Evaluation of a Reputation Metric for e-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowska, Anna; Sloane, Andrew

This paper evaluates recently developed novel and comprehensive reputation metric designed for the distributed multi-agent reputation system for the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) E-commerce applications. To do that an agent-based simulation framework was implemented which models different types of behaviours in the marketplace. The trustworthiness of different types of providers is investigated to establish whether the simulation models behaviour of B2C e-Commerce systems as they are expected to behave in real life.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

PubMed

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

PubMed Central

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture. PMID:27003834

Validation of an Integrated Airframe and Turbofan Engine Simulation for Evaluation of Propulsion Control Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Sowers, T Shane; Liu, Yuan; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed independent airframe and engine models that have been integrated into a single real-time aircraft simulation for piloted evaluation of propulsion control algorithms. In order to have confidence in the results of these evaluations, the integrated simulation must be validated to demonstrate that its behavior is realistic and that it meets the appropriate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification requirements for aircraft. The paper describes the test procedures and results, demonstrating that the integrated simulation generally meets the FAA requirements and is thus a valid testbed for evaluation of propulsion control modes.

Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2014-01-01

Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

Longitudinal train dynamics model for a rail transit simulation system

DOE PAGES

Wang, Jinghui; Rakha, Hesham A.

2018-01-01

The paper develops a longitudinal train dynamics model in support of microscopic railway transportation simulation. The model can be calibrated without any mechanical data making it ideal for implementation in transportation simulators. The calibration and validation work is based on data collected from the Portland light rail train fleet. The calibration procedure is mathematically formulated as a constrained non-linear optimization problem. The validity of the model is assessed by comparing instantaneous model predictions against field observations, and also evaluated in the domains of acceleration/deceleration versus speed and acceleration/deceleration versus distance. A test is conducted to investigate the adequacy of themore » model in simulation implementation. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can adequately capture instantaneous train dynamics, and provides good performance in the simulation test. Thus, the model provides a simple theoretical foundation for microscopic simulators and will significantly support the planning, management and control of railway transportation systems.« less

Longitudinal train dynamics model for a rail transit simulation system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jinghui; Rakha, Hesham A.

The paper develops a longitudinal train dynamics model in support of microscopic railway transportation simulation. The model can be calibrated without any mechanical data making it ideal for implementation in transportation simulators. The calibration and validation work is based on data collected from the Portland light rail train fleet. The calibration procedure is mathematically formulated as a constrained non-linear optimization problem. The validity of the model is assessed by comparing instantaneous model predictions against field observations, and also evaluated in the domains of acceleration/deceleration versus speed and acceleration/deceleration versus distance. A test is conducted to investigate the adequacy of themore » model in simulation implementation. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can adequately capture instantaneous train dynamics, and provides good performance in the simulation test. Thus, the model provides a simple theoretical foundation for microscopic simulators and will significantly support the planning, management and control of railway transportation systems.« less

V/STOL tilt rotor aircraft study. Volume 9: Piloted simulator evaluation of the Boeing Vertol model 222 tilt rotor aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenstein, H.; Mcveigh, M. A.; Mollenkof, P. A.

1973-01-01

The results of a real time piloted simulation to investigate the handling qualities and performance of a tilting rotor aircraft design are presented. The aerodynamic configuration of the aircraft is described. The procedures for conducting the simulator evaluation are reported. Pilot comments of the aircraft handling qualities under various simulated flight conditions are included. The time histories of selected pilot maneuvers are shown.

Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

EPA Science Inventory

A commonly used landscape model to simulate wetland change – the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM) – has rarely been explicitly assessed for its prediction accuracy. Here, we evaluated this model using recently proposed neutral models – including the random constraint matc...

Numerical simulations of atmospheric dispersion of iodine-131 by different models.

PubMed

Leelőssy, Ádám; Mészáros, Róbert; Kovács, Attila; Lagzi, István; Kovács, Tibor

2017-01-01

Nowadays, several dispersion models are available to simulate the transport processes of air pollutants and toxic substances including radionuclides in the atmosphere. Reliability of atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated in several recent cases from local to global scale; however, very few actual emission data are available to evaluate model results in real-life cases. In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of 131I emitted to the atmosphere during an industrial process was simulated with different models, namely the WRF-Chem Eulerian online coupled model and the HYSPLIT and the RAPTOR Lagrangian models. Although only limited data of 131I detections has been available, the accuracy of modeled plume direction could be evaluated in complex late autumn weather situations. For the studied cases, the general reliability of models has been demonstrated. However, serious uncertainties arise related to low level inversions, above all in case of an emission event on 4 November 2011, when an important wind shear caused a significant difference between simulated and real transport directions. Results underline the importance of prudent interpretation of dispersion model results and the identification of weather conditions with a potential to cause large model errors.

Numerical simulations of atmospheric dispersion of iodine-131 by different models

PubMed Central

Leelőssy, Ádám; Mészáros, Róbert; Kovács, Attila; Lagzi, István; Kovács, Tibor

2017-01-01

Nowadays, several dispersion models are available to simulate the transport processes of air pollutants and toxic substances including radionuclides in the atmosphere. Reliability of atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated in several recent cases from local to global scale; however, very few actual emission data are available to evaluate model results in real-life cases. In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of 131I emitted to the atmosphere during an industrial process was simulated with different models, namely the WRF-Chem Eulerian online coupled model and the HYSPLIT and the RAPTOR Lagrangian models. Although only limited data of 131I detections has been available, the accuracy of modeled plume direction could be evaluated in complex late autumn weather situations. For the studied cases, the general reliability of models has been demonstrated. However, serious uncertainties arise related to low level inversions, above all in case of an emission event on 4 November 2011, when an important wind shear caused a significant difference between simulated and real transport directions. Results underline the importance of prudent interpretation of dispersion model results and the identification of weather conditions with a potential to cause large model errors. PMID:28207853

A Survey of Model Evaluation Approaches with a Tutorial on Hierarchical Bayesian Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shiffrin, Richard M.; Lee, Michael D.; Kim, Woojae; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2008-01-01

This article reviews current methods for evaluating models in the cognitive sciences, including theoretically based approaches, such as Bayes factors and minimum description length measures; simulation approaches, including model mimicry evaluations; and practical approaches, such as validation and generalization measures. This article argues…

Annual Application and Evaluation of the Online Coupled WRF‐CMAQ System over North America under AQMEII Phase 2

EPA Science Inventory

We present an application of the online coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system to two annual simulations over North America performed under Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). Operational evaluation shows that model performance is comparable t...

Benchmark simulation model no 2: general protocol and exploratory case studies.

PubMed

Jeppsson, U; Pons, M-N; Nopens, I; Alex, J; Copp, J B; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A

2007-01-01

Over a decade ago, the concept of objectively evaluating the performance of control strategies by simulating them using a standard model implementation was introduced for activated sludge wastewater treatment plants. The resulting Benchmark Simulation Model No 1 (BSM1) has been the basis for a significant new development that is reported on here: Rather than only evaluating control strategies at the level of the activated sludge unit (bioreactors and secondary clarifier) the new BSM2 now allows the evaluation of control strategies at the level of the whole plant, including primary clarifier and sludge treatment with anaerobic sludge digestion. In this contribution, the decisions that have been made over the past three years regarding the models used within the BSM2 are presented and argued, with particular emphasis on the ADM1 description of the digester, the interfaces between activated sludge and digester models, the included temperature dependencies and the reject water storage. BSM2-implementations are now available in a wide range of simulation platforms and a ring test has verified their proper implementation, consistent with the BSM2 definition. This guarantees that users can focus on the control strategy evaluation rather than on modelling issues. Finally, for illustration, twelve simple operational strategies have been implemented in BSM2 and their performance evaluated. Results show that it is an interesting control engineering challenge to further improve the performance of the BSM2 plant (which is the whole idea behind benchmarking) and that integrated control (i.e. acting at different places in the whole plant) is certainly worthwhile to achieve overall improvement.

Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn’t Fit All

PubMed Central

Brommesson, Peter; Wennergren, Uno; Lindström, Tom

2016-01-01

The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement between holdings. Typically, movements are more common between nearby farms than between those located far away from each other. Here, we assessed spatiotemporal variation in such distance dependence of animal movement contacts from an epidemiological perspective. We evaluated and compared nine statistical models, applied to Swedish movement data from 2008. The models differed in at what level (if at all), they accounted for regional and/or seasonal heterogeneities in the distance dependence of the contacts. Using a kernel approach to describe how probability of contacts between farms changes with distance, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated parameters by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluated models by three different approaches of model selection. First, we used Deviance Information Criterion to evaluate their performance relative to each other. Secondly, we estimated the log predictive posterior distribution, this was also used to evaluate their relative performance. Thirdly, we performed posterior predictive checks by simulating movements with each of the parameterized models and evaluated their ability to recapture relevant summary statistics. Independent of selection criteria, we found that accounting for regional heterogeneity improved model accuracy. We also found that accounting for seasonal heterogeneity was beneficial, in terms of model accuracy, according to two of three methods used for model selection. Our results have important implications for livestock disease spread models where movement is an important risk factor for between farm transmission. We argue that modelers should refrain from using methods to simulate animal movements that assume the same pattern across all regions and seasons without explicitly testing for spatiotemporal variation. PMID:27760155

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dabang; Wang, Huijun; Lang, Xianmei

2005-07-01

Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961 1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models’ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.

Mechanical Evaluation of Retinal Damage Associated With Blunt Craniomaxillofacial Trauma: A Simulation Analysis.

PubMed

Geng, Xiaoqi; Liu, Xiaoyu; Wei, Wei; Wang, Yawei; Wang, Lizhen; Chen, Kinon; Huo, Hongqiang; Zhu, Yuanjie; Fan, Yubo

2018-05-01

To evaluate retinal damage as the result of craniomaxillofacial trauma and explain its pathogenic mechanism using finite element (FE) simulation. Computed tomography (CT) images of an adult man were obtained to construct a FE skull model. A FE skin model was built to cover the outer surface of the skull model. A previously validated FE right eye model was symmetrically copied to create a FE left eye model, and both eye models were assembled to the skull model. An orbital fat model was developed to fill the space between the eye models and the skull model. Simulations of a ball-shaped object striking the frontal bone, temporal bone, brow, and cheekbones were performed, and the resulting absorption of the impact energy, intraocular pressure (IOP), and strains on the macula and ora serrata were analyzed to evaluate retinal injuries. Strain was concentrated in the macular regions (0.18 in average) of both eyes when the frontal bone was struck. The peak strain on the macula of the struck-side eye was higher than that of the other eye (>100%) when the temporal bone was struck, whereas there was little difference (<10%) between the two eyes when the brow and cheekbones were struck. Correlation analysis showed that the retinal strain time histories were highly correlated with the IOP time histories ( r > 0.8 and P = 0.000 in all simulation cases). The risk of retinal damage is variable in craniomaxillofacial trauma depending on the struck region, and the damage is highly related to IOP variation caused by indirect blunt eye trauma. This finite element eye model allows us to evaluate and understand the indirect ocular injury mechanisms in craniomaxillofacial trauma for better clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Road simulation for four-wheel vehicle whole input power spectral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiangbo; Qiang, Baomin

2017-05-01

As the vibration of running vehicle mainly comes from road and influence vehicle ride performance. So the road roughness power spectral density simulation has great significance to analyze automobile suspension vibration system parameters and evaluate ride comfort. Firstly, this paper based on the mathematical model of road roughness power spectral density, established the integral white noise road random method. Then in the MATLAB/Simulink environment, according to the research method of automobile suspension frame from simple two degree of freedom single-wheel vehicle model to complex multiple degrees of freedom vehicle model, this paper built the simple single incentive input simulation model. Finally the spectrum matrix was used to build whole vehicle incentive input simulation model. This simulation method based on reliable and accurate mathematical theory and can be applied to the random road simulation of any specified spectral which provides pavement incentive model and foundation to vehicle ride performance research and vibration simulation.

Benchmark Simulation Model No 2: finalisation of plant layout and default control strategy.

PubMed

Nopens, I; Benedetti, L; Jeppsson, U; Pons, M-N; Alex, J; Copp, J B; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A

2010-01-01

The COST/IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 1 (BSM1) has been available for almost a decade. Its primary purpose has been to create a platform for control strategy benchmarking of activated sludge processes. The fact that the research work related to the benchmark simulation models has resulted in more than 300 publications worldwide demonstrates the interest in and need of such tools within the research community. Recent efforts within the IWA Task Group on "Benchmarking of control strategies for WWTPs" have focused on an extension of the benchmark simulation model. This extension aims at facilitating control strategy development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level and, consequently, includes both pretreatment of wastewater as well as the processes describing sludge treatment. The motivation for the extension is the increasing interest and need to operate and control wastewater treatment systems not only at an individual process level but also on a plant-wide basis. To facilitate the changes, the evaluation period has been extended to one year. A prolonged evaluation period allows for long-term control strategies to be assessed and enables the use of control handles that cannot be evaluated in a realistic fashion in the one week BSM1 evaluation period. In this paper, the finalised plant layout is summarised and, as was done for BSM1, a default control strategy is proposed. A demonstration of how BSM2 can be used to evaluate control strategies is also given.

Evaluation of image quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pavel, M.

1993-01-01

This presentation outlines in viewgraph format a general approach to the evaluation of display system quality for aviation applications. This approach is based on the assumption that it is possible to develop a model of the display which captures most of the significant properties of the display. The display characteristics should include spatial and temporal resolution, intensity quantizing effects, spatial sampling, delays, etc. The model must be sufficiently well specified to permit generation of stimuli that simulate the output of the display system. The first step in the evaluation of display quality is an analysis of the tasks to be performed using the display. Thus, for example, if a display is used by a pilot during a final approach, the aesthetic aspects of the display may be less relevant than its dynamic characteristics. The opposite task requirements may apply to imaging systems used for displaying navigation charts. Thus, display quality is defined with regard to one or more tasks. Given a set of relevant tasks, there are many ways to approach display evaluation. The range of evaluation approaches includes visual inspection, rapid evaluation, part-task simulation, and full mission simulation. The work described is focused on two complementary approaches to rapid evaluation. The first approach is based on a model of the human visual system. A model of the human visual system is used to predict the performance of the selected tasks. The model-based evaluation approach permits very rapid and inexpensive evaluation of various design decisions. The second rapid evaluation approach employs specifically designed critical tests that embody many important characteristics of actual tasks. These are used in situations where a validated model is not available. These rapid evaluation tests are being implemented in a workstation environment.

SIMYAR: a cable-yarding simulation model.

Treesearch

R.J. McGaughey; R.H. Twito

1987-01-01

A skyline-logging simulation model designed to help planners evaluate potential yarding options and alternative harvest plans is presented. The model, called SIMYAR, uses information about the timber stand, yarding equipment, and unit geometry to estimate yarding co stand productivity for a particular operation. The costs of felling, bucking, loading, and hauling are...

A Simulation Model of the Planetary Boundary Layer at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hwang, B.

1978-01-01

A simulation model which predicts the behavior of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer has been developed and coded. The model is partially evaluated by comparing it with laboratory measurements and the sounding measurements at Kennedy Space Center. The applicability of such an approach should prove quite widespread.

A mercury transport and fate model (LM2-mercury) for mass budget assessment of mercury cycling in Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

Performance Evaluation Test of the Orbit Screen Model 68A and the Komplet Model 48-25 Rock Crusher

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

two representatives from the Government of Ecuador, Ms . Viviana Anabela Meza Cevallos, from the Demining Center of Ecuador, and Lieutenant Jose Luis...Mines ( MRMs ) Antipersonnel Simulants............................ 8 4 Orbit Screen Model 68 Testing...Mock Mine .............................................................................................................. 7 Figure 8: MRM Simulant, Type

Tradeoffs among watershed model calibration targets for parameter estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation f...

Operational improvements at traffic circles : final report, December 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

This study deals with the development of a credible and valid simulation model of the Collingwood, : Brooklawn, and Asbury traffic circles in New Jersey. These simulation models are used to evaluate : various geometric and operational improvement alt...

Evaluating performance of risk identification methods through a large-scale simulation of observational data.

PubMed

Ryan, Patrick B; Schuemie, Martijn J

2013-10-01

There has been only limited evaluation of statistical methods for identifying safety risks of drug exposure in observational healthcare data. Simulations can support empirical evaluation, but have not been shown to adequately model the real-world phenomena that challenge observational analyses. To design and evaluate a probabilistic framework (OSIM2) for generating simulated observational healthcare data, and to use this data for evaluating the performance of methods in identifying associations between drug exposure and health outcomes of interest. Seven observational designs, including case-control, cohort, self-controlled case series, and self-controlled cohort design were applied to 399 drug-outcome scenarios in 6 simulated datasets with no effect and injected relative risks of 1.25, 1.5, 2, 4, and 10, respectively. Longitudinal data for 10 million simulated patients were generated using a model derived from an administrative claims database, with associated demographics, periods of drug exposure derived from pharmacy dispensings, and medical conditions derived from diagnoses on medical claims. Simulation validation was performed through descriptive comparison with real source data. Method performance was evaluated using Area Under ROC Curve (AUC), bias, and mean squared error. OSIM2 replicates prevalence and types of confounding observed in real claims data. When simulated data are injected with relative risks (RR) ≥ 2, all designs have good predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.90), but when RR < 2, no methods achieve 100 % predictions. Each method exhibits a different bias profile, which changes with the effect size. OSIM2 can support methodological research. Results from simulation suggest method operating characteristics are far from nominal properties.

Developing R&D portfolio business validity simulation model and system.

PubMed

Yeo, Hyun Jin; Im, Kwang Hyuk

2015-01-01

The R&D has been recognized as critical method to take competitiveness by not only companies but also nations with its value creation such as patent value and new product. Therefore, R&D has been a decision maker's burden in that it is hard to decide how much money to invest, how long time one should spend, and what technology to develop which means it accompanies resources such as budget, time, and manpower. Although there are diverse researches about R&D evaluation, business factors are not concerned enough because almost all previous studies are technology oriented evaluation with one R&D technology based. In that, we early proposed R&D business aspect evaluation model which consists of nine business model components. In this research, we develop a simulation model and system evaluating a company or industry's R&D portfolio with business model point of view and clarify default and control parameters to facilitate evaluator's business validity work in each evaluation module by integrate to one screen.

Developing R&D Portfolio Business Validity Simulation Model and System

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The R&D has been recognized as critical method to take competitiveness by not only companies but also nations with its value creation such as patent value and new product. Therefore, R&D has been a decision maker's burden in that it is hard to decide how much money to invest, how long time one should spend, and what technology to develop which means it accompanies resources such as budget, time, and manpower. Although there are diverse researches about R&D evaluation, business factors are not concerned enough because almost all previous studies are technology oriented evaluation with one R&D technology based. In that, we early proposed R&D business aspect evaluation model which consists of nine business model components. In this research, we develop a simulation model and system evaluating a company or industry's R&D portfolio with business model point of view and clarify default and control parameters to facilitate evaluator's business validity work in each evaluation module by integrate to one screen. PMID:25893209

Technical Reliability Studies. EOS/ESD Technology Abstracts

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

RESISTANT BIPOLAR TRANSISTOR DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 16145 MODULE ELECTROSTATIC DISCHARGE SIMULATOR 15786 SOME...T.M. 16476 STATIC DISCHARGE MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED (FET) CIRCUIT DESTRUCTION 16145 MODULE ELECTAOSTATIC DISCHARGE SIMULATOR...PLASTIC LSI CIRCUITS PRklE, L.A., II 16145 MODULE ELECTROSTATIC DISCHARGE SIMULATOR PRICE, R.D. 13455 EVALUATION OF PLASTIC LSI CIRCUITS PSHAENICH, A

Piloted Evaluation of a UH-60 Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lusardi, Jeff A.; Blanken, Chris L.; Tischeler, Mark B.

2002-01-01

A simulation study of a recently developed hover/low speed Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation (METS) model for the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter was conducted in the NASA Ames Research Center Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS). The experiment was a continuation of previous work to develop a simple, but validated, turbulence model for hovering rotorcraft. To validate the METS model, two experienced test pilots replicated precision hover tasks that had been conducted in an instrumented UH-60 helicopter in turbulence. Objective simulation data were collected for comparison with flight test data, and subjective data were collected that included handling qualities ratings and pilot comments for increasing levels of turbulence. Analyses of the simulation results show good analytic agreement between the METS model and flight test data, with favorable pilot perception of the simulated turbulence. Precision hover tasks were also repeated using the more complex rotating-frame SORBET (Simulation Of Rotor Blade Element Turbulence) model to generate turbulence. Comparisons of the empirically derived METS model with the theoretical SORBET model show good agreement providing validation of the more complex blade element method of simulating turbulence.

Quantitative evaluation of simulated functional brain networks in graph theoretical analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Won Hee; Bullmore, Ed; Frangou, Sophia

2017-02-01

There is increasing interest in the potential of whole-brain computational models to provide mechanistic insights into resting-state brain networks. It is therefore important to determine the degree to which computational models reproduce the topological features of empirical functional brain networks. We used empirical connectivity data derived from diffusion spectrum and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from healthy individuals. Empirical and simulated functional networks, constrained by structural connectivity, were defined based on 66 brain anatomical regions (nodes). Simulated functional data were generated using the Kuramoto model in which each anatomical region acts as a phase oscillator. Network topology was studied using graph theory in the empirical and simulated data. The difference (relative error) between graph theory measures derived from empirical and simulated data was then estimated. We found that simulated data can be used with confidence to model graph measures of global network organization at different dynamic states and highlight the sensitive dependence of the solutions obtained in simulated data on the specified connection densities. This study provides a method for the quantitative evaluation and external validation of graph theory metrics derived from simulated data that can be used to inform future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.

2016-01-01

We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate model performance. Based on various metrics and sensitivity tests, the modified model yields reasonably good simulations of seasonal snowpack in the West (range of bias of ±50 mm at 68% of 713 SNOTEL sites), the gradients and magnitudes of actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (median correlation of 0.83 and median Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.6 between simulated and observed annual time series at 1427 USGS gage sites). The model generally performs well along the Pacific Coast, the high elevations of the Basin and Range and over the Midwest and East, but not as well over the dry areas of the Southwest and upper Plains regions due, in part, to the apportioning of direct versus delayed runoff. Sensitivity testing and application of the MWBM to simulate the future water balance at four National Parks when driven by 30 climate models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) demonstrate that the model is useful for evaluating first-order, climate driven hydrologic change on monthly and annual time scales.

Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's Nitrogen Oxides State Implementation Plan as well as significant reductions in mobile source emissions. Model results for the summers of 2002 and 2005 were compared to simulations from a previous version of CMAQ to assess the impact of model updates on predicted pollutant response. Changes to the model treatment of emissions, meteorology and chemistry had substantial impacts on the simulated ozone concentrations. While the median bias for high summertime ozone decreased in both years compared to previous simulations, the observed decrease in ozone from 2002 to 2005 in the eastern US continued to be underestimated by the model. Additional “cross” simulations were used to decompose the model predicted change in ozone into the change due to emissions, the change due to meteorology and any remaining change not explained individually by these two components. The decomposition showed that the emission controls led to a decrease in modeled high summertime ozone close to twice as large as the decrease attributable to changes in meteorology alone. Quantifying the impact of retrospective emission controls by removing the impacts of meteorology during the control period can be a valuable approac

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model

PubMed Central

Saul, Katherine R.; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M.; Vidt, Meghan E.; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M.

2014-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms. PMID:24995410

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model.

PubMed

Saul, Katherine R; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M; Vidt, Meghan E; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M

2015-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Evaluating 1-, 2- and 3- Parameter Logistic Models Using Model-Based and Empirically-Based Simulations under Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Set Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rizavi, Saba; Way, Walter D.; Lu, Ying; Pitoniak, Mary; Steffen, Manfred

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use realistically simulated data to evaluate various CAT designs for use with the verbal reasoning measure of the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT). Factors such as item pool depth, content constraints, and item formats often cause repeated adaptive administrations of an item at ability levels that are not…

Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics for Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2012-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by the observed amplitude and phase of the annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P). Koeppen classification thus can provide concise, multivariate metrics for evaluating climate model performance in simulating the regional magnitudes and seasonalities of climate variables that are of critical importance for living organisms. In this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of 1980-1999 climate, a period when observational data provides a reliable global validation standard. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of the vegetation types, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are most deficient in simulating 1) the climates of the drier zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) that are located in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa, and Central Australia, as well as 2) the climate of regions such as Central Asia and Western South America where topography plays a central role. (Detailed analysis of regional biases in the annual cycles of T and P of selected simulations exemplifying general model performance problems also are to be presented.) The more encouraging results include evidence for a general improvement in CMIP5 performance relative to that of older CMIP3 models. Within CMIP5 also, the more complex Earth Systems Models (ESMs) with prognostic biogeochemistry perform comparably to the corresponding global models that simulate only the "physical" climate. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system—WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2015, CMAQ version 5.1 was released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.0.2 and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1 simulations were performed to assess the impact of these improvements on the model results. These results will be presented, along with a base evaluation of the performance of the CMAQv5.1 modeling system against available surface and upper-air measurements available during the time period simulated. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, proces

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F.; Moore, David F.

2006-01-01

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Effects of simulated turbulence on aircraft handling qualities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, I. D.; Joshi, D. S.

1977-01-01

The influence of simulated turbulence on aircraft handling qualities is presented. Pilot opinions of the handling qualities of a light general aviation aircraft were evaluated in a motion-base simulator using a simulated turbulence environment. A realistic representation of turbulence disturbances is described in terms of rms intensity and scale length and their random variations with time. The time histories generated by the proposed turbulence models showed characteristics which are more similar to real turbulence than the frequently-used Gaussian turbulence model. The proposed turbulence models flexibly accommodate changes in atmospheric conditions and are easily implemented in flight simulator studies.

Phosphorus component in AnnAGNPS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, Y.; Bingner, R.L.; Theurer, F.D.; Rebich, R.A.; Moore, P.A.

2005-01-01

The USDA Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution model (AnnAGNPS) has been developed to aid in evaluation of watershed response to agricultural management practices. Previous studies have demonstrated the capability of the model to simulate runoff and sediment, but not phosphorus (P). The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS on P simulation using comparisons with measurements from the Deep Hollow watershed of the Mississippi Delta Management Systems Evaluation Area (MDMSEA) project. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify input parameters whose impact is the greatest on P yields. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that the most sensitive variables of those selected are initial soil P contents, P application rate, and plant P uptake. AnnAGNPS simulations of dissolved P yield do not agree well with observed dissolved P yield (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.34, R2 of 0.51, and slope of 0.24); however, AnnAGNPS simulations of total P yield agree well with observed total P yield (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.85, R2 of 0.88, and slope of 0.83). The difference in dissolved P yield may be attributed to limitations in model simulation of P processes. Uncertainties in input parameter selections also affect the model's performance.

Ultrasonic Phased Array Simulations of Welded Components at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, D. J.; Tokars, R. P.; Martin, R. E.; Rauser, R. W.; Aldrin, J. C.

2009-01-01

Comprehensive and accurate inspections of welded components have become of increasing importance as NASA develops new hardware such as Ares rocket segments for future exploration missions. Simulation and modeling will play an increasing role in the future for nondestructive evaluation in order to better understand the physics of the inspection process, to prove or disprove the feasibility for an inspection method or inspection scenario, for inspection optimization, for better understanding of experimental results, and for assessment of probability of detection. This study presents simulation and experimental results for an ultrasonic phased array inspection of a critical welded structure important for NASA future exploration vehicles. Keywords: nondestructive evaluation, computational simulation, ultrasonics, weld, modeling, phased array

Evaluation of cool season precipitation event characteristics over the Northeast US in a suite of downscaled climate model hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Jinwon; Ferraro, Robert

2017-08-01

Cool season precipitation event characteristics are evaluated across a suite of downscaled climate models over the northeastern US. Downscaled hindcast simulations are produced by dynamically downscaling the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model. NU-WRF RCM simulations are produced at 24, 12, and 4-km horizontal resolutions using a range of spectral nudging schemes while the MERRA2 global downscaled run is provided at 12.5-km. All model runs are evaluated using four metrics designed to capture key features of precipitation events: event frequency, event intensity, even total, and event duration. Overall, the downscaling approaches result in a reasonable representation of many of the key features of precipitation events over the region, however considerable biases exist in the magnitude of each metric. Based on this evaluation there is no clear indication that higher resolution simulations result in more realistic results in general, however many small-scale features such as orographic enhancement of precipitation are only captured at higher resolutions suggesting some added value over coarser resolution. While the differences between simulations produced using nudging and no nudging are small, there is some improvement in model fidelity when nudging is introduced, especially at a cutoff wavelength of 600 km compared to 2000 km. Based on the results of this evaluation, dynamical regional downscaling using NU-WRF results in a more realistic representation of precipitation event climatology than the global downscaling of MERRA2 using GEOS-5.

Simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols with the climate model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Noije, T. P. C.; Le Sager, P.; Segers, A. J.; van Velthoven, P. F. J.; Krol, M. C.; Hazeleger, W.

2014-03-01

We have integrated the atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 into the global climate model EC-Earth version 2.4. We present an overview of the TM5 model and the two-way data exchange between TM5 and the integrated forecasting system (IFS) model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the atmospheric general circulation model of EC-Earth. In this paper we evaluate the simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in a one-way coupled configuration. We have carried out a decadal simulation for present-day conditions and calculated chemical budgets and climatologies of tracer concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For comparison we have also performed offline simulations driven by meteorological fields from ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis and output from the EC-Earth model itself. Compared to the offline simulations, the online-coupled system produces more efficient vertical mixing in the troposphere, which likely reflects an improvement of the treatment of cumulus convection. The chemistry in the EC-Earth simulations is affected by the fact that the current version of EC-Earth produces a cold bias with too dry air in large parts of the troposphere. Compared to the ERA-Interim driven simulation, the oxidizing capacity in EC-Earth is lower in the tropics and higher in the extratropics. The methane lifetime is 7% higher in EC-Earth, but remains well within the range reported in the literature. We evaluate the model by comparing the simulated climatologies of surface carbon monoxide, tropospheric and surface ozone, and aerosol optical depth against observational data. The work presented in this study is the first step in the development of EC-Earth into an Earth system model with fully interactive atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.

Integrating meso- and micro-simulation models to evaluate traffic management strategies - year 1 : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

In this project the researchers developed a hierarchical multi-resolution traffic simulation system for metropolitan areas, referred to as MetroSim. Categorically, the focus is on integrating two types of simulation: microscopic simulation in which i...

Procedural training and assessment of competency utilizing simulation.

PubMed

Sawyer, Taylor; Gray, Megan M

2016-11-01

This review examines the current environment of neonatal procedural learning, describes an updated model of skills training, defines the role of simulation in assessing competency, and discusses potential future directions for simulation-based competency assessment. In order to maximize impact, simulation-based procedural training programs should follow a standardized and evidence-based approach to designing and evaluating educational activities. Simulation can be used to facilitate the evaluation of competency, but must incorporate validated assessment tools to ensure quality and consistency. True competency evaluation cannot be accomplished with simulation alone: competency assessment must also include evaluations of procedural skill during actual clinical care. Future work in this area is needed to measure and track clinically meaningful patient outcomes resulting from simulation-based training, examine the use of simulation to assist physicians undergoing re-entry to practice, and to examine the use of procedural skills simulation as part of a maintenance of competency and life-long learning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental and analytical studies of advanced air cushion landing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, E. G. S.; Boghani, A. B.; Captain, K. M.; Rutishauser, H. J.; Farley, H. L.; Fish, R. B.; Jeffcoat, R. L.

1981-01-01

Several concepts are developed for air cushion landing systems (ACLS) which have the potential for improving performance characteristics (roll stiffness, heave damping, and trunk flutter), and reducing fabrication cost and complexity. After an initial screening, the following five concepts were evaluated in detail: damped trunk, filled trunk, compartmented trunk, segmented trunk, and roll feedback control. The evaluation was based on tests performed on scale models. An ACLS dynamic simulation developed earlier is updated so that it can be used to predict the performance of full-scale ACLS incorporating these refinements. The simulation was validated through scale-model tests. A full-scale ACLS based on the segmented trunk concept was fabricated and installed on the NASA ACLS test vehicle, where it is used to support advanced system development. A geometrically-scaled model (one third full scale) of the NASA test vehicle was fabricated and tested. This model, evaluated by means of a series of static and dynamic tests, is used to investigate scaling relationships between reduced and full-scale models. The analytical model developed earlier is applied to simulate both the one third scale and the full scale response.

Evaluation of NCMRWF unified model vertical cloud structure with CloudSat over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Mamgain, Ashu; Jisesh, A. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Rakhi, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Representation of rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation in the high resolution versions of NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM-REG) for the short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall event is vastly dependent on the key factors such as vertical cloud distribution, convection and convection/cloud relationship in the model. Hence it is highly relevant to evaluate the vertical structure of cloud and precipitation of the model over the monsoon environment. In this regard, we utilized the synergy of the capabilities of CloudSat data for long observational period, by conditioning it for the synoptic situation of the model simulation period. Simulations were run at 4-km grid length with the convective parameterization effectively switched off and on. Since the sample of CloudSat overpasses through the monsoon domain is small, the aforementioned methodology may qualitatively evaluate the vertical cloud structure for the model simulation period. It is envisaged that the present study will open up the possibility of further improvement in the high resolution version of NCUM in the tropics for the Indian summer monsoon associated rainfall events.

UCODE_2005 and six other computer codes for universal sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty evaluation constructed using the JUPITER API

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, Eileen E.; Hill, Mary C.; Banta, Edward R.; Mehl, Steffen; Christensen, Steen

2006-01-01

This report documents the computer codes UCODE_2005 and six post-processors. Together the codes can be used with existing process models to perform sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, calibration, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Any process model or set of models can be used; the only requirements are that models have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files, that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits, that all required models can be run from a single batch file or script, and that simulated values are continuous functions of the parameter values. Process models can include pre-processors and post-processors as well as one or more models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical, and so on), making UCODE_2005 extremely powerful. An estimated parameter can be a quantity that appears in the input files of the process model(s), or a quantity used in an equation that produces a value that appears in the input files. In the latter situation, the equation is user-defined. UCODE_2005 can compare observations and simulated equivalents. The simulated equivalents can be any simulated value written in the process-model output files or can be calculated from simulated values with user-defined equations. The quantities can be model results, or dependent variables. For example, for ground-water models they can be heads, flows, concentrations, and so on. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be considered. Statistics are calculated to quantify the comparison of observations and simulated equivalents, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, data-exchange files are produced that facilitate graphical analysis. UCODE_2005 can be used fruitfully in model calibration through its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its ability to estimate parameter values that result in the best possible fit to the observations. Parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression: a weighted least-squares objective function is minimized with respect to the parameter values using a modified Gauss-Newton method or a double-dogleg technique. Sensitivities needed for the method can be read from files produced by process models that can calculate sensitivities, such as MODFLOW-2000, or can be calculated by UCODE_2005 using a more general, but less accurate, forward- or central-difference perturbation technique. Problems resulting from inaccurate sensitivities and solutions related to the perturbation techniques are discussed in the report. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1) diagnosing inadequate data and identifying parameters that probably cannot be estimated; (2) evaluating estimated parameter values; and (3) evaluating how well the model represents the simulated processes. Results from UCODE_2005 and codes RESIDUAL_ANALYSIS and RESIDUAL_ANALYSIS_ADV can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the processes it simulates. Results from LINEAR_UNCERTAINTY can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values if the model is sufficiently linear. Results from MODEL_LINEARITY and MODEL_LINEARITY_ADV can be used to evaluate model linearity and, thereby, the accuracy of the LINEAR_UNCERTAINTY results. UCODE_2005 can also be used to calculate nonlinear confidence and predictions intervals, which quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values when the model is not linear. CORFAC_PLUS can be used to produce factors that allow intervals to account for model intrinsic nonlinearity and small-scale variations in system characteristics that are not explicitly accounted for in the model or the observation weighting. The six post-processing programs are independent of UCODE_2005 and can use the results of other programs that produce the required data-exchange files. UCODE_2005 and the other six codes are intended for use on any computer operating system. The programs con

Estimation of wetland methane emissions in a biogeochemical model integrated in CESM: sensitivity analysis and comparison against surface and atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Mahowald, N. M.; Hess, P. G.; Yavitt, J. B.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.; Jauhiainen, J.; Fuka, D. R.

2012-12-01

Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al. 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations and thus we do not use CLM4 simulated inundated area. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993-2004 were 256 Tg CH4 y-1 (including the soil sink). Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 y-1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 y-1. Our sensitivity studies show a large range (150-346 Tg CH4 y-1) in predicted global methane emissions. In order to evaluate our methane emissions on the regional and global scales against atmospheric measurements, we conducted simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) forced with our baseline simulation of wetland and rice paddy emissions along with other methane sources (e.g. anthropogenic, fire, and termite emissions) and compared model simulations against measured atmospheric concentrations obtained from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/. Overall, using our estimated wetland and rice paddy emissions, CAM-chem model can produce seasonal and interannual variations of observed atmospheric concentration performs well. Thus, within the current level of uncertainty, our emissions appear to be reasonable.

Basic study on a lower-energy defibrillation method using computer simulation and cultured myocardial cell models.

PubMed

Yaguchi, A; Nagase, K; Ishikawa, M; Iwasaka, T; Odagaki, M; Hosaka, H

2006-01-01

Computer simulation and myocardial cell models were used to evaluate a low-energy defibrillation technique. A generated spiral wave, considered to be a mechanism of fibrillation, and fibrillation were investigated using two myocardial sheet models: a two-dimensional computer simulation model and a two-dimensional experimental model. A new defibrillation technique that has few side effects, which are induced by the current passing into the patient's body, on cardiac muscle is desired. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a basic investigation into an efficient defibrillation method. In order to evaluate the defibrillation method, the propagation of excitation in the myocardial sheet is measured during the normal state and during fibrillation, respectively. The advantages of the low-energy defibrillation technique are then discussed based on the stimulation timing.

CAD and CAE Analysis for Siphon Jet Toilet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuhua; Xiu, Guoji; Tan, Haishu

The high precision 3D laser scanner with the dual CCD technology was used to measure the original design sample of a siphon jet toilet. The digital toilet model was constructed from the cloud data measured with the curve and surface fitting technology and the CAD/CAE systems. The Realizable k - ɛ double equation model of the turbulence viscosity coefficient method and the VOF multiphase flow model were used to simulate the flushing flow in the toilet digital model. Through simulating and analyzing the distribution of the flushing flow's total pressure, the flow speed at the toilet-basin surface and the siphoning bent tube, the toilet performance can be evaluated efficiently and conveniently. The method of "establishing digital model, flushing flow simulating, performances evaluating, function shape modifying" would provide a high efficiency approach to develop new water-saving toilets.

An evaluation of the performance of a WRF multi-physics ensemble for heatwave events over the city of Melbourne in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imran, H. M.; Kala, J.; Ng, A. W. M.; Muthukumaran, S.

2018-04-01

Appropriate choice of physics options among many physics parameterizations is important when using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The responses of different physics parameterizations of the WRF model may vary due to geographical locations, the application of interest, and the temporal and spatial scales being investigated. Several studies have evaluated the performance of the WRF model in simulating the mean climate and extreme rainfall events for various regions in Australia. However, no study has explicitly evaluated the sensitivity of the WRF model in simulating heatwaves. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of a WRF multi-physics ensemble that comprises 27 model configurations for a series of heatwave events in Melbourne, Australia. Unlike most previous studies, we not only evaluate temperature, but also wind speed and relative humidity, which are key factors influencing heatwave dynamics. No specific ensemble member for all events explicitly showed the best performance, for all the variables, considering all evaluation metrics. This study also found that the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme had largest influence, the radiation scheme had moderate influence, and the microphysics scheme had the least influence on temperature simulations. The PBL and microphysics schemes were found to be more sensitive than the radiation scheme for wind speed and relative humidity. Additionally, the study tested the role of Urban Canopy Model (UCM) and three Land Surface Models (LSMs). Although the UCM did not play significant role, the Noah-LSM showed better performance than the CLM4 and NOAH-MP LSMs in simulating the heatwave events. The study finally identifies an optimal configuration of WRF that will be a useful modelling tool for further investigations of heatwaves in Melbourne. Although our results are invariably region-specific, our results will be useful to WRF users investigating heatwave dynamics elsewhere.

Effectiveness evaluation of STOL transport operations (phase 2). [computer simulation program of commercial short haul aircraft operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welp, D. W.; Brown, R. A.; Ullman, D. G.; Kuhner, M. B.

1974-01-01

A computer simulation program which models a commercial short-haul aircraft operating in the civil air system was developed. The purpose of the program is to evaluate the effect of a given aircraft avionics capability on the ability of the aircraft to perform on-time carrier operations. The program outputs consist primarily of those quantities which can be used to determine direct operating costs. These include: (1) schedule reliability or delays, (2) repairs/replacements, (3) fuel consumption, and (4) cancellations. More comprehensive models of the terminal area environment were added and a simulation of an existing airline operation was conducted to obtain a form of model verification. The capability of the program to provide comparative results (sensitivity analysis) was then demonstrated by modifying the aircraft avionics capability for additional computer simulations.

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Online model evaluation of large-eddy simulations covering Germany with a horizontal resolution of 156 m

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Akio; Ament, Felix; Lammert, Andrea

2017-04-01

Large-eddy simulations have been performed since several decades, but due to computational limits most studies were restricted to small domains or idealised initial-/boundary conditions. Within the High definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project realistic weather forecasting like LES simulations were performed with the newly developed ICON LES model for several days. The domain covers central Europe with a horizontal resolution down to 156 m. The setup consists of more than 3 billion grid cells, by what one 3D dump requires roughly 500 GB. A newly developed online evaluation toolbox was created to check instantaneously for realistic model simulations. The toolbox automatically combines model results with observations and generates several quicklooks for various variables. So far temperature-/humidity profiles, cloud cover, integrated water vapour, precipitation and many more are included. All kind of observations like aircraft observations, soundings or precipitation radar networks are used. For each dataset, a specific module is created, which allows for an easy handling and enhancement of the toolbox. Most of the observations are automatically downloaded from the Standardized Atmospheric Measurement Database (SAMD). The evaluation tool should support scientists at monitoring computational costly model simulations as well as to give a first overview about model's performance. The structure of the toolbox as well as the SAMD database are presented. Furthermore, the toolbox was applied on an ICON LES sensitivity study, where example results are shown.

Teaching a Model-based Climatology Using Energy Balance Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unwin, David

1981-01-01

After outlining the difficulties of teaching climatology within an undergraduate geography curriculum, the author describes and evaluates the use of a computer assisted simulation to model surface energy balance and the effects of land use changes on local climate. (AM)

An AD100 implementation of a real-time STOVL aircraft propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouzts, Peter J.; Drummond, Colin K.

1990-01-01

A real-time dynamic model of the propulsion system for a Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft was developed for the AD100 simulation environment. The dynamic model was adapted from a FORTRAN based simulation using the dynamic programming capabilities of the AD100 ADSIM simulation language. The dynamic model includes an aerothermal representation of a turbofan jet engine, actuator and sensor models, and a multivariable control system. The AD100 model was tested for agreement with the FORTRAN model and real-time execution performance. The propulsion system model was also linked to an airframe dynamic model to provide an overall STOVL aircraft simulation for the purposes of integrated flight and propulsion control studies. An evaluation of the AD100 system for use as an aircraft simulation environment is included.

A 3D TCAD simulation of a thermoelectric module configured for thermoelectric power generation, cooling and heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, C. A.; Shammas, N. Y. A.; Grainger, S.; Taylor, I.; Simpson, K.

2012-06-01

This paper documents the 3D modeling and simulation of a three couple thermoelectric module using the Synopsys Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) semiconductor simulation software. Simulation results are presented for thermoelectric power generation, cooling and heating, and successfully demonstrate the basic thermoelectric principles. The 3D TCAD simulation model of a three couple thermoelectric module can be used in the future to evaluate different thermoelectric materials, device structures, and improve the efficiency and performance of thermoelectric modules.

Validation of the train energy and dynamics simulator (TEDS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

FRA has developed Train Energy and Dynamics Simulator (TEDS) based upon a longitudinal train dynamics and operations : simulation model which allows users to conduct safety and risk evaluations, incident investigations, studies of train operations, :...

The hydrologic implications of alternative prioritizations of landscape-scale geographically isolated wetlands conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; Mclaughlin, D. L.; D'Amico, E.

2016-12-01

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), defined as upland embedded wetlands, provide an array of ecosystem goods and services. Wetland conservation efforts aim to protect GIWs in the face of continued threats from anthropogenic activities. Given limited conservation resources, there is a critical need for methods capable of evaluating the watershed-scale hydrologic implications of alternative approaches to GIW conservation. Further, there is a need for methods that quantify the watershed-scale aggregate effects of GIWs to determine their regulatory status within the United States. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a popular watershed-scale hydrologic model, to represent the 1,700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in North Dakota, USA. We modified the model to incorporate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes via hydrologic response unit (HRU) redefinition and modifications to the model source code. We then used the model to evaluate the hydrologic effects of alternative approaches to GIW conservation prioritization by simulating the destruction/removal of GIWs by sub-classes defined by their relative position within the simulated fill-spill GIW network and their surface area characteristics. We evaluated the alternative conservation approaches as impacting (1) simulated streamflow at the Pipestem Creek watershed outlet; (2) simulated water-levels within the GIWs; and (3) simulated hydrologic connections between the GIWs. Our approach to modifying SWAT and evaluating alternative GIW conservation strategies may be replicated in different watersheds and physiographic regions to aid the development of GIW conservation priorities.

Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

The concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating in each grid cell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product [long-term average total cloud amount (TCA)], cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our results support previous findings that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is still not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP like another model output. Lastly, contrasting cloud simulation performance against each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter, yields no clear conclusions.

Evaluation of decadal hindcasts using satellite simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Mazurkiewicz, Alex; Schröder, Marc

2013-04-01

The evaluation of dynamical ensemble forecast systems requires a solid validation of basic processes such as the global atmospheric water and energy cycle. The value of any validation approach strongly depends on the quality of the observational data records used. Current approaches utilize in situ measurements, remote sensing data and reanalyses. Related data records are subject to a number of uncertainties and limitations such as representativeness, spatial and temporal resolution and homogeneity. However, recently several climate data records with known and sufficient quality became available. In particular, the satellite data records offer the opportunity to obtain reference information on global scales including the oceans. Here we consider the simulation of satellite radiances from the climate model output enabling an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space to avoid uncertainties stemming from the application of retrieval schemes in order to minimise uncertainties on the reference side. Utilizing the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) we develop satellite simulators for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar (TRMM PR) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). The simulators are applied within the MiKlip project funded by BMBF (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research) to evaluate decadal climate predictions performed with the MPI-ESM developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. While TRMM PR enables the evaluation of the vertical structure of precipitation over tropical and sub-tropical areas, IASI is used to support the global evaluation of clouds and radiation. In a first step the reliability of the developed simulators needs to be explored. The simulation of radiances in the instrument space requires the generation of sub-grid scale variability from the climate model output. Furthermore, assumptions are made to simulate radiances such as, for example, the distribution of different hydrometeor types. Therefore, testing is performed to determine the extent to which the quality of the simulator results depends on the applied methods used to generate sub-grid variability (e.g. sub-grid resolution). Moreover, the sensitivity of results to the choice of different distributions of hydrometeors is explored. The model evaluation is carried out in a statistical manner using histograms of radar reflectivities (TRMM PR) and brightness temperatures (IASI). Finally, methods to deduce data suitable for probabilistic evaluation of decadal hindcasts such as simple indices are discussed.

Efficient evaluation of wireless real-time control networks.

PubMed

Horvath, Peter; Yampolskiy, Mark; Koutsoukos, Xenofon

2015-02-11

In this paper, we present a system simulation framework for the design and performance evaluation of complex wireless cyber-physical systems. We describe the simulator architecture and the specific developments that are required to simulate cyber-physical systems relying on multi-channel, multihop mesh networks. We introduce realistic and efficient physical layer models and a system simulation methodology, which provides statistically significant performance evaluation results with low computational complexity. The capabilities of the proposed framework are illustrated in the example of WirelessHART, a centralized, real-time, multi-hop mesh network designed for industrial control and monitor applications.

Assessment of the antireflection property of moth wings by three-dimensional transfer-matrix optical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deparis, Olivier; Khuzayim, Nadia; Parker, Andrew; Vigneron, Jean Pol

2009-04-01

The wings of the moth Cacostatia ossa (Ctenuchinae) are covered on both sides by non-close-packed nipple arrays which are known to act as broadband antireflection coatings. Experimental evaluation of the antireflection property of these biological structures is problematic because of the lack of a proper reference for reflectance measurements, i.e., a smooth surface made of the same material as the wing. Theoretical evaluation, on the other hand, is much more reliable provided that optical simulations are carried out on a realistic structural model of the wing. Based on detailed morphological characterizations, we established a three-dimensional (3D) model of the wing and used 3D transfer-matrix optical simulations in order to demonstrate the broadband antireflection property of the wings of Cacostatia ossa. Differences between hemispherical and specular reflectance spectra revealed that diffraction effects were not negligible for this structure although they did not jeopardize the antireflection efficiency. The influences of the backside corrugation and of the material’s absorption on the reflectance spectrum were also studied. In addition, simulations based on an effective-medium model of the wing were carried out using a multilayer thin-film code. In comparison with the latter simulations, the 3D transfer-matrix simulations were found to be more accurate for evaluating the antireflection property.

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.;

Analysis of the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Simulation Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

dynamic programming approach known as a “rolling horizon” approach. This method accounts for state transitions within the simulation rather than modeling ... model is based on the framework developed for Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors used to evaluate factors associated with networking assets in the...of UAVs required by all types of maneuver and support brigades. (Witsken, 2004) The Modeling , Virtual Environments, and Simulations Institute

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

PubMed

Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

2013-04-01

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Last Glacial Maximum world-ocean simulation at eddy-permitting resolution - Part 1: Experimental design and basic evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Brodeau, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Lundberg, P.; Döös, K.

2013-01-01

Most state-of-the-art climate models include a coarsely resolved oceanic component, which has difficulties in capturing detailed dynamics, and therefore eddy-permitting/eddy-resolving simulations have been developed to reproduce the observed World Ocean. In this study, an eddy-permitting numerical experiment is conducted to simulate the global ocean state for a period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 26 500 to 19 000 yr ago) and to investigate the improvements due to taking into account these higher spatial scales. The ocean general circulation model is forced by a 49-yr sample of LGM atmospheric fields constructed from a quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation. The initial state and the bottom boundary condition conform to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) recommendations. Before evaluating the model efficiency in representing the paleo-proxy reconstruction of the surface state, the LGM experiment is in this first part of the investigation, compared with a present-day eddy-permitting hindcast simulation as well as with the available PMIP results. It is shown that the LGM eddy-permitting simulation is consistent with the quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation, but large discrepancies are found with the PMIP model analyses, probably due to the different equilibration states. The strongest meridional gradients of the sea-surface temperature are located near 40° N and S, this due to particularly large North-Atlantic and Southern-Ocean sea-ice covers. These also modify the locations of the convection sites (where deep-water forms) and most of the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation consequently takes place in a thinner layer than today. Despite some discrepancies with other LGM simulations, a glacial state is captured and the eddy-permitting simulation undertaken here yielded a useful set of data for comparisons with paleo-proxy reconstructions.

XCAT/DRASIM: a realistic CT/human-model simulation package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, George S. K.; Stierstorfer, Karl; Segars, W. Paul; Taguchi, Katsuyuki; Flohr, Thomas G.; Tsui, Benjamin M. W.

2011-03-01

The aim of this research is to develop a complete CT/human-model simulation package by integrating the 4D eXtended CArdiac-Torso (XCAT) phantom, a computer generated NURBS surface based phantom that provides a realistic model of human anatomy and respiratory and cardiac motions, and the DRASIM (Siemens Healthcare) CT-data simulation program. Unlike other CT simulation tools which are based on simple mathematical primitives or voxelized phantoms, this new simulation package has the advantages of utilizing a realistic model of human anatomy and physiological motions without voxelization and with accurate modeling of the characteristics of clinical Siemens CT systems. First, we incorporated the 4D XCAT anatomy and motion models into DRASIM by implementing a new library which consists of functions to read-in the NURBS surfaces of anatomical objects and their overlapping order and material properties in the XCAT phantom. Second, we incorporated an efficient ray-tracing algorithm for line integral calculation in DRASIM by computing the intersection points of the rays cast from the x-ray source to the detector elements through the NURBS surfaces of the multiple XCAT anatomical objects along the ray paths. Third, we evaluated the integrated simulation package by performing a number of sample simulations of multiple x-ray projections from different views followed by image reconstruction. The initial simulation results were found to be promising by qualitative evaluation. In conclusion, we have developed a unique CT/human-model simulation package which has great potential as a tool in the design and optimization of CT scanners, and the development of scanning protocols and image reconstruction methods for improving CT image quality and reducing radiation dose.

APPLICATION AND EVALUATION OF CMAQ IN THE UNITED STATES: AIR QUALITY FORECASTING AND RETROSPECTIVE MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Presentation slides provide background on model evaluation techniques. Also included in the presentation is an operational evaluation of 2001 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) annual simulation, and an evaluation of PM_2.5 for the CMAQ air quality forecast (AQF) ...

Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation of a Distribution System with Air Conditioners under Model Predictive Control: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sparn, Bethany F; Ruth, Mark F; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak

Many have proposed that responsive load provided by distributed energy resources (DERs) and demand response (DR) are an option to provide flexibility to the grid and especially to distribution feeders. However, because responsive load involves a complex interplay between tariffs and DER and DR technologies, it is challenging to test and evaluate options without negatively impacting customers. This paper describes a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system that has been developed to reduce the cost of evaluating the impact of advanced controllers (e.g., model predictive controllers) and technologies (e.g., responsive appliances). The HIL simulation system combines large-scale software simulation with a smallmore » set of representative building equipment hardware. It is used to perform HIL simulation of a distribution feeder and the loads on it under various tariff structures. In the reported HIL simulation, loads include many simulated air conditioners and one physical air conditioner. Independent model predictive controllers manage operations of all air conditioners under a time-of-use tariff. Results from this HIL simulation and a discussion of future development work of the system are presented.« less

Uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Sudheer, K.; Her, Y.

2012-12-01

Use of computer simulation models have increased substantially to make watershed management decisions and to develop strategies for water quality improvements. These models are often used to evaluate potential benefits of various best management practices (BMPs) for reducing losses of pollutants from sources areas into receiving waterbodies. Similarly, use of simulation models in optimizing selection and placement of best management practices under single (maximization of crop production or minimization of pollutant transport) and multiple objective functions has increased recently. One of the limitations of the currently available assessment and optimization approaches is that the BMP strategies are considered deterministic. Uncertainties in input data (e.g. precipitation, streamflow, sediment, nutrient and pesticide losses measured, land use) and model parameters may result in considerable uncertainty in watershed response under various BMP options. We have developed and evaluated options to include uncertainty in BMP evaluation and optimization for watershed management. We have also applied these methods to evaluate uncertainty in ecosystem services from mixed land use watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss methods to to quantify uncertainties in BMP assessment and optimization solutions due to uncertainties in model inputs and parameters. We have used a watershed model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT) to simulate the hydrology and water quality in mixed land use watershed located in Midwest USA. The SWAT model was also used to represent various BMPs in the watershed needed to improve water quality. SWAT model parameters, land use change parameters, and climate change parameters were considered uncertain. It was observed that model parameters, land use and climate changes resulted in considerable uncertainties in BMP performance in reducing P, N, and sediment loads. In addition, climate change scenarios also affected uncertainties in SWAT simulated crop yields. Considerable uncertainties in the net cost and the water quality improvements resulted due to uncertainties in land use, climate change, and model parameter values.

A Framework for Evaluating Regional-Scale Numerical Photochemical Modeling Systems

EPA Science Inventory

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~ 200-2000 km) three dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model's credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of li...

RF safety assessment of a bilateral four-channel transmit/receive 7 Tesla breast coil: SAR versus tissue temperature limits.

PubMed

Fiedler, Thomas M; Ladd, Mark E; Bitz, Andreas K

2017-01-01

The purpose of this work was to perform an RF safety evaluation for a bilateral four-channel transmit/receive breast coil and to determine the maximum permissible input power for which RF exposure of the subject stays within recommended limits. The safety evaluation was done based on SAR as well as on temperature simulations. In comparison to SAR, temperature is more directly correlated with tissue damage, which allows a more precise safety assessment. The temperature simulations were performed by applying three different blood perfusion models as well as two different ambient temperatures. The goal was to evaluate whether the SAR and temperature distributions correlate inside the human body and whether SAR or temperature is more conservative with respect to the limits specified by the IEC. A simulation model was constructed including coil housing and MR environment. Lumped elements and feed networks were modeled by a network co-simulation. The model was validated by comparison of S-parameters and B 1 + maps obtained in an anatomical phantom. Three numerical body models were generated based on 3 Tesla MRI images to conform to the coil housing. SAR calculations were performed and the maximal permissible input power was calculated based on IEC guidelines. Temperature simulations were performed based on the Pennes bioheat equation with the power absorption from the RF simulations as heat source. The blood perfusion was modeled as constant to reflect impaired patients as well as with a linear and exponential temperature-dependent increase to reflect two possible models for healthy subjects. Two ambient temperatures were considered to account for cooling effects from the environment. The simulation model was validated with a mean deviation of 3% between measurement and simulation results. The highest 10 g-averaged SAR was found in lung and muscle tissue on the right side of the upper torso. The maximum permissible input power was calculated to be 17 W. The temperature simulations showed that temperature maximums do not correlate well with the position of the SAR maximums in all considered cases. The body models with an exponential blood perfusion increase did not exceed the temperature limit when an RF power according to the SAR limit was applied; in this case, a higher input power level by up to 73% would be allowed. The models with a constant or linear perfusion exceeded the limit for the local temperature when the local SAR limit was adhered to and would require a decrease in the input power level by up to 62%. The maximum permissible input power was determined based on SAR simulations with three newly generated body models and compared with results from temperature simulations. While SAR calculations are state-of-the-art and well defined as they are based on more or less well-known material parameters, temperature simulations depend strongly on additional material, environmental and physiological parameters. The simulations demonstrated that more consideration needs be made by the MR community in defining the parameters for temperature simulations in order to apply temperature limits instead of SAR limits in the context of MR RF safety evaluations. © 2016 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Using observed postconstruction peak discharges to evaluate a hydrologic and hydraulic design model, Boneyard Creek, Champaign and Urbana, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Soong, David T.; Holmes, Robert R.

2011-01-01

Boneyard Creek—which drains an urbanized watershed in the cities of Champaign and Urbana, Illinois, including part of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) campus—has historically been prone to flooding. Using the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), a hydrologic and hydraulic model of Boneyard Creek was developed for the design of the projects making up the first phase of a long-term plan for flood control on Boneyard Creek, and the construction of the projects was completed in May 2003. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Cities of Champaign and Urbana and UIUC, installed and operated stream and rain gages in order to obtain data for evaluation of the design-model simulations. In this study, design-model simulations were evaluated by using observed postconstruction precipitation and peak-discharge data. Between May 2003 and September 2008, five high-flow events on Boneyard Creek satisfied the study criterion. The five events were simulated with the design model by using observed precipitation. The simulations were run with two different values of the parameter controlling the soil moisture at the beginning of the storms and two different ways of spatially distributing the precipitation, making a total of four simulation scenarios. The simulated and observed peak discharges and stages were compared at gaged locations along the Creek. The discharge at one of these locations was deemed to be critical for evaluating the design model. The uncertainty of the measured peak discharge was also estimated at the critical location with a method based on linear regression of the stage and discharge relation, an estimate of the uncertainty of the acoustic Doppler velocity meter measurements, and the uncertainty of the stage measurements. For four of the five events, the simulated peak discharges lie within the 95-percent confidence interval of the observed peak discharges at the critical location; the fifth was just outside the upper end of this interval. For two of the four simulation scenarios, the simulation results for one event at the critical location were numerically unstable in the vicinity of the discharge peak. For the remaining scenarios, the simulated peak discharges over the five events at the critical location differ from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of 7.7 and -1.5 percent, respectively. The simulated peak discharges over the four events for which all scenarios have numerically stable results at the critical location differs from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of -6.8, 4.0, -5.4, and 1.5 percent, for the four scenarios, respectively. Overall, the discharge peaks simulated for this study at the critical location are approximately balanced between overprediction and underprediction and do not indicate significant model bias or inaccuracy. Additional comparisons were made by using peak stages at the critical location and two additional sites and using peak discharges at one additional site. These comparisons showed the same pattern of differences between observed and simulated values across events but varying biases depending on streamgage and measurement type (discharge or stage). Altogether, the results from this study show no clear evidence that the design model is significantly inaccurate or biased and, therefore, no clear evidence that the modeled flood-control projects in Champaign and on the University of Illinois campus have increased flood stages or discharges downstream in Urbana.

A high-fidelity, six-degree-of-freedom batch simulation environment for tactical guidance research and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

A batch air combat simulation environment, the tactical maneuvering simulator (TMS), is presented. The TMS is a tool for developing and evaluating tactical maneuvering logics, but it can also be used to evaluate the tactical implications of perturbations to aircraft performance or supporting systems. The TMS can simulate air combat between any number of engagement participants, with practical limits imposed by computer memory and processing power. Aircraft are modeled using equations of motion, control laws, aerodynamics, and propulsive characteristics equivalent to those used in high-fidelity piloted simulations. Data bases representative of a modern high-performance aircraft with and without thrust-vectoring capability are included. To simplify the task of developing and implementing maneuvering logics in the TMS, an outer-loop control system, the tactical autopilot (TA), is implemented in the aircraft simulation model. The TA converts guidance commands by computerized maneuvering logics from desired angle of attack and wind-axis bank-angle inputs to the inner loop control augmentation system of the aircraft. The capabilities and operation of the TMS and the TA are described.

GPU-based Green's function simulations of shear waves generated by an applied acoustic radiation force in elastic and viscoelastic models.

PubMed

Yang, Yiqun; Urban, Matthew W; McGough, Robert J

2018-05-15

Shear wave calculations induced by an acoustic radiation force are very time-consuming on desktop computers, and high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) achieve dramatic reductions in the computation time for these simulations. The acoustic radiation force is calculated using the fast near field method and the angular spectrum approach, and then the shear waves are calculated in parallel with Green's functions on a GPU. This combination enables rapid evaluation of shear waves for push beams with different spatial samplings and for apertures with different f/#. Relative to shear wave simulations that evaluate the same algorithm on an Intel i7 desktop computer, a high performance nVidia GPU reduces the time required for these calculations by a factor of 45 and 700 when applied to elastic and viscoelastic shear wave simulation models, respectively. These GPU-accelerated simulations also compared to measurements in different viscoelastic phantoms, and the results are similar. For parametric evaluations and for comparisons with measured shear wave data, shear wave simulations with the Green's function approach are ideally suited for high-performance GPUs.

Simulator certification methods and the vertical motion simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Showalter, T. W.

1981-01-01

The vertical motion simulator (VMS) is designed to simulate a variety of experimental helicopter and STOL/VTOL aircraft as well as other kinds of aircraft with special pitch and Z axis characteristics. The VMS includes a large motion base with extensive vertical and lateral travel capabilities, a computer generated image visual system, and a high speed CDC 7600 computer system, which performs aero model calculations. Guidelines on how to measure and evaluate VMS performance were developed. A survey of simulation users was conducted to ascertain they evaluated and certified simulators for use. The results are presented.

"Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Model"

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observatio...

Development and Evaluation of a New Air Exchange Rate Algorithm for the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model

EPA Science Inventory

between-home and between-city variability in residential pollutant infiltration. This is likely a result of differences in home ventilation, or air exchange rates (AER). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model is a population exposure model that uses a pro...

Lysimetric evaluation of the APEX Model to simulate daily ET for irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The NTT (Nutrient Tracking Tool) was designed to provide an opportunity for all users, including producers, to simulate the complex models, such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender) and associated required databases. The APEX model currently nested within NTT provides estimates of th...

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high‐ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozo...

An Aerodynamic Performance Evaluation of the NASA/Ames Research Center Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donohue, Paul F.

1987-01-01

The results of an aerodynamic performance evaluation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Ames Research Center Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator (ACFS), conducted in association with the Navy-NASA Joint Institute of Aeronautics, are presented. The ACFS is a full-mission flight simulator which provides an excellent platform for the critical evaluation of emerging flight systems and aircrew performance. The propulsion and flight dynamics models were evaluated using classical flight test techniques. The aerodynamic performance model of the ACFS was found to realistically represent that of current day, medium range transport aircraft. Recommendations are provided to enhance the capabilities of the ACFS to a level forecast for 1995 transport aircraft. The graphical and tabular results of this study will establish a performance section of the ACFS Operation's Manual.

Review of Airport Ground Traffic Models Including an Evaluation of the ASTS Computer Program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-12-01

The report covers an evaluation of Airport Ground Traffic models for the purpose of simulating an Autonomous Local Intersection Controller. All known models were reviewed and a detailed study was performed on the two in-house models the ASTS and ROSS...

Comparison of simulator fidelity model predictions with in-simulator evaluation data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.; Mckissick, B. T.; Ashworth, B. R.

1983-01-01

A full factorial in simulator experiment of a single axis, multiloop, compensatory pitch tracking task is described. The experiment was conducted to provide data to validate extensions to an analytic, closed loop model of a real time digital simulation facility. The results of the experiment encompassing various simulation fidelity factors, such as visual delay, digital integration algorithms, computer iteration rates, control loading bandwidths and proprioceptive cues, and g-seat kinesthetic cues, are compared with predictions obtained from the analytic model incorporating an optimal control model of the human pilot. The in-simulator results demonstrate more sensitivity to the g-seat and to the control loader conditions than were predicted by the model. However, the model predictions are generally upheld, although the predicted magnitudes of the states and of the error terms are sometimes off considerably. Of particular concern is the large sensitivity difference for one control loader condition, as well as the model/in-simulator mismatch in the magnitude of the plant states when the other states match.

[Three-dimensional finite element modeling and biomechanical simulation for evaluating and improving postoperative internal instrumentation of neck-thoracic vertebral tumor en bloc resection].

PubMed

Qinghua, Zhao; Jipeng, Li; Yongxing, Zhang; He, Liang; Xuepeng, Wang; Peng, Yan; Xiaofeng, Wu

2015-04-07

To employ three-dimensional finite element modeling and biomechanical simulation for evaluating the stability and stress conduction of two postoperative internal fixed modeling-multilevel posterior instrumentation ( MPI) and MPI with anterior instrumentation (MPAI) with neck-thoracic vertebral tumor en bloc resection. Mimics software and computed tomography (CT) images were used to establish the three-dimensional (3D) model of vertebrae C5-T2 and simulated the C7 en bloc vertebral resection for MPI and MPAI modeling. Then the statistics and images were transmitted into the ANSYS finite element system and 20N distribution load (simulating body weight) and applied 1 N · m torque on neutral point for simulating vertebral displacement and stress conduction and distribution of motion mode, i. e. flexion, extension, bending and rotating. With a better stability, the displacement of two adjacent vertebral bodies of MPI and MPAI modeling was less than that of complete vertebral modeling. No significant differences existed between each other. But as for stress shielding effect reduction, MPI was slightly better than MPAI. From biomechanical point of view, two internal instrumentations with neck-thoracic tumor en bloc resection may achieve an excellent stability with no significant differences. But with better stress conduction, MPI is more advantageous in postoperative reconstruction.

DIFFUSION IN THE VICINITY OF STANDARD-DESIGN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS-I. WIND-TUNNEL EVALUATION OF DIFFUSIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SIMULATED SUBURBAN NEUTRAL ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

EPA Science Inventory

A large meteorological wind tunnel was used to simulate a suburban atmospheric boundary layer. The model-prototype scale was 1:300 and the roughness length was approximately 1.0 m full scale. The model boundary layer simulated full scale dispersion from ground-level and elevated ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

Evaluation of protein-protein docking model structures using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations combined with the solution theory in the energy representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, Kazuhiro; Guo, Hao; Sakuraba, Shun; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki; Kitao, Akio

2012-12-01

We propose a method to evaluate binding free energy differences among distinct protein-protein complex model structures through all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water using the solution theory in the energy representation. Complex model structures are generated from a pair of monomeric structures using the rigid-body docking program ZDOCK. After structure refinement by side chain optimization and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water, complex models are evaluated based on the sum of their conformational and solvation free energies, the latter calculated from the energy distribution functions obtained from relatively short molecular dynamics simulations of the complex in water and of pure water based on the solution theory in the energy representation. We examined protein-protein complex model structures of two protein-protein complex systems, bovine trypsin/CMTI-1 squash inhibitor (PDB ID: 1PPE) and RNase SA/barstar (PDB ID: 1AY7), for which both complex and monomer structures were determined experimentally. For each system, we calculated the energies for the crystal complex structure and twelve generated model structures including the model most similar to the crystal structure and very different from it. In both systems, the sum of the conformational and solvation free energies tended to be lower for the structure similar to the crystal. We concluded that our energy calculation method is useful for selecting low energy complex models similar to the crystal structure from among a set of generated models.

Evaluation of protein-protein docking model structures using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations combined with the solution theory in the energy representation.

PubMed

Takemura, Kazuhiro; Guo, Hao; Sakuraba, Shun; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki; Kitao, Akio

2012-12-07

We propose a method to evaluate binding free energy differences among distinct protein-protein complex model structures through all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water using the solution theory in the energy representation. Complex model structures are generated from a pair of monomeric structures using the rigid-body docking program ZDOCK. After structure refinement by side chain optimization and all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water, complex models are evaluated based on the sum of their conformational and solvation free energies, the latter calculated from the energy distribution functions obtained from relatively short molecular dynamics simulations of the complex in water and of pure water based on the solution theory in the energy representation. We examined protein-protein complex model structures of two protein-protein complex systems, bovine trypsin/CMTI-1 squash inhibitor (PDB ID: 1PPE) and RNase SA/barstar (PDB ID: 1AY7), for which both complex and monomer structures were determined experimentally. For each system, we calculated the energies for the crystal complex structure and twelve generated model structures including the model most similar to the crystal structure and very different from it. In both systems, the sum of the conformational and solvation free energies tended to be lower for the structure similar to the crystal. We concluded that our energy calculation method is useful for selecting low energy complex models similar to the crystal structure from among a set of generated models.

Simulating cholinesterase inhibition in birds caused by dietary insecticide exposure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corson, M.S.; Mora, M.A.; Grant, W.E.

1998-01-01

We describe a stochastic simulation model that simulates avian foraging in an agricultural landscape to evaluate factors affecting dietary insecticide exposure and to predict post-exposure cholinesterase (ChE) inhibition. To evaluate the model, we simulated published field studies and found that model predictions of insecticide decay and ChE inhibition reasonably approximated most observed results. Sensitivity analysis suggested that foraging location usually influenced ChE inhibition more than diet preferences or daily intake rate. Although organophosphorus insecticides usually caused greater inhibition than carbamate insecticides, insecticide toxicity appeared only moderately important. When we simulated impact of heavy insecticide applications during breeding seasons of 15 wild bird species, mean maximum ChE inhibition in most species exceeded 20% at some point. At this level of inhibition, birds may experience nausea and/or may exhibit minor behavioral changes. Simulated risk peaked in April–May and August–September and was lowest in July. ChE inhibition increased with proportion of vegetation in the diet. This model, and ones like it, may help predict insecticide exposure of and sublethal ChE inhibition in grassland animals, thereby reducing dependence of ecological risk assessments on field studies alone.

ARM Cloud Radar Simulator Package for Global Climate Models Value-Added Product

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng

It has been challenging to directly compare U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ground-based cloud radar measurements with climate model output because of limitations or features of the observing processes and the spatial gap between model and the single-point measurements. To facilitate the use of ARM radar data in numerical models, an ARM cloud radar simulator was developed to converts model data into pseudo-ARM cloud radar observations that mimic the instrument view of a narrow atmospheric column (as compared to a large global climate model [GCM] grid-cell), thus allowing meaningful comparison between model outputmore » and ARM cloud observations. The ARM cloud radar simulator value-added product (VAP) was developed based on the CloudSat simulator contained in the community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011), which has been widely used in climate model evaluation with satellite data (Klein et al., 2013, Zhang et al., 2010). The essential part of the CloudSat simulator is the QuickBeam radar simulator that is used to produce CloudSat-like radar reflectivity, but is capable of simulating reflectivity for other radars (Marchand et al., 2009; Haynes et al., 2007). Adapting QuickBeam to the ARM cloud radar simulator within COSP required two primary changes: one was to set the frequency to 35 GHz for the ARM Ka-band cloud radar, as opposed to 94 GHz used for the CloudSat W-band radar, and the second was to invert the view from the ground to space so as to attenuate the beam correctly. In addition, the ARM cloud radar simulator uses a finer vertical resolution (100 m compared to 500 m for CloudSat) to resolve the more detailed structure of clouds captured by the ARM radars. The ARM simulator has been developed following the COSP workflow (Figure 1) and using the capabilities available in COSP wherever possible. The ARM simulator is written in Fortran 90, just as is the COSP. It is incorporated into COSP to facilitate use by the climate modeling community. In order to evaluate simulator output, the observational counterpart of the simulator output, radar reflectivity-height histograms (CFAD) is also generated from the ARM observations. This report includes an overview of the ARM cloud radar simulator VAP and the required simulator-oriented ARM radar data product (radarCFAD) for validating simulator output, as well as a user guide for operating the ARM radar simulator VAP.« less

Mercury mass balance in Lake Michigan--the knowns and unknowns

EPA Science Inventory

LM2-Mercury, a mercury mass balance model, was developed to simulate and evaluate the transport, fate, and biogeochemical transformations of mercury in Lake Michigan. The model simulates total suspended solids (TSS), disolved organic carbon (DOC), and total, elemental, divalent, ...

Evaluation of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF model using measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.-H.; Kim, S.-W.; Angevine, W. M.; Bianco, L.; McKeen, S. A.; Senff, C. J.; Trainer, M.; Tucker, S. C.; Zamora, R. J.

2011-03-01

The performance of different urban surface parameterizations in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) in simulating urban boundary layer (UBL) was investigated using extensive measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign. The extensive field measurements collected on surface (meteorological, wind profiler, energy balance flux) sites, a research aircraft, and a research vessel characterized 3-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer structures over the Houston-Galveston Bay area, providing a unique opportunity for the evaluation of the physical parameterizations. The model simulations were performed over the Houston metropolitan area for a summertime period (12-17 August) using a bulk urban parameterization in the Noah land surface model (original LSM), a modified LSM, and a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). The UCM simulation compared quite well with the observations over the Houston urban areas, reducing the systematic model biases in the original LSM simulation by 1-2 °C in near-surface air temperature and by 200-400 m in UBL height, on average. A more realistic turbulent (sensible and latent heat) energy partitioning contributed to the improvements in the UCM simulation. The original LSM significantly overestimated the sensible heat flux (~200 W m-2) over the urban areas, resulting in warmer and higher UBL. The modified LSM slightly reduced warm and high biases in near-surface air temperature (0.5-1 °C) and UBL height (~100 m) as a result of the effects of urban vegetation. The relatively strong thermal contrast between the Houston area and the water bodies (Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico) in the LSM simulations enhanced the sea/bay breezes, but the model performance in predicting local wind fields was similar among the simulations in terms of statistical evaluations. These results suggest that a proper surface representation (e.g. urban vegetation, surface morphology) and explicit parameterizations of urban physical processes are required for accurate urban atmospheric numerical modeling.

A Discrete Event Simulation Model for Evaluating the Performances of an M/G/C/C State Dependent Queuing System

PubMed Central

Khalid, Ruzelan; M. Nawawi, Mohd Kamal; Kawsar, Luthful A.; Ghani, Noraida A.; Kamil, Anton A.; Mustafa, Adli

2013-01-01

M/G/C/C state dependent queuing networks consider service rates as a function of the number of residing entities (e.g., pedestrians, vehicles, and products). However, modeling such dynamic rates is not supported in modern Discrete Simulation System (DES) software. We designed an approach to cater this limitation and used it to construct the M/G/C/C state-dependent queuing model in Arena software. Using the model, we have evaluated and analyzed the impacts of various arrival rates to the throughput, the blocking probability, the expected service time and the expected number of entities in a complex network topology. Results indicated that there is a range of arrival rates for each network where the simulation results fluctuate drastically across replications and this causes the simulation results and analytical results exhibit discrepancies. Detail results that show how tally the simulation results and the analytical results in both abstract and graphical forms and some scientific justifications for these have been documented and discussed. PMID:23560037

Evaluation on Asian Dust Aerosol and Simulated Processes in CanAM4.2 Using Satellite Measurements and Station Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiran, P.; Li, J.; von Salzen, K.; Dai, T.; Liu, D.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust is a significant contributor to global and Asian aerosol burden. Currently, large uncertainties still exist in simulated aerosol processes in global climate models (GCMs), which lead to a diversity in dust mass loading and spatial distribution of GCM projections. In this study, satellite measurements from CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) and observed aerosol data from Asian stations are compared with modelled aerosol in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Both seasonal and annual variations in Asian dust distribution are investigated. Vertical profile of simulated aerosol in troposphere is evaluated with CALIOP Level 3 products and local observed extinction for dust and total aerosols. Physical processes in GCM such as horizontal advection, vertical mixing, dry and wet removals are analyzed according to model simulation and available measurements of aerosol. This work aims to improve current understanding of Asian dust transport and vertical exchange on a large scale, which may help to increase the accuracy of GCM simulation on aerosols.

Evaluation of a 40 to 1 scale model of a low pressure engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, C. E., Jr.; Thoenes, J.

1972-01-01

An evaluation of a scale model of a low pressure rocket engine which is used for secondary injection studies was conducted. Specific objectives of the evaluation were to: (1) assess the test conditions required for full scale simulations; (2) recommend fluids to be used for both primary and secondary flows; and (3) recommend possible modifications to be made to the scale model and its test facility to achieve the highest possible degree of simulation. A discussion of the theoretical and empirical scaling laws which must be observed to apply scale model test data to full scale systems is included. A technique by which the side forces due to secondary injection can be analytically estimated is presented.

SIMPAVE : evaluation of virtual environments for pavement construction simulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

In the last couple of years, the authors have been developing virtual simulations for modeling the construction of asphalt pavements. The simulations are graphically rich, interactive, three-dimensional, with realistic physics, and allow multiple peo...

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maiorano, Andrea; Martre, Pierre; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Mueller, Christoph; Roetter, Reimund P.; Ruane, Alex C.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Enli

2016-01-01

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

Description and validation of the Simple, Efficient, Dynamic, Global, Ecological Simulator (SEDGES v.1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiewonsky, Pablo; Elison Timm, Oliver

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a simple dynamic global vegetation model whose primary intended use is auxiliary to the land-atmosphere coupling scheme of a climate model, particularly one of intermediate complexity. The model simulates and provides important ecological-only variables but also some hydrological and surface energy variables that are typically either simulated by land surface schemes or else used as boundary data input for these schemes. The model formulations and their derivations are presented here, in detail. The model includes some realistic and useful features for its level of complexity, including a photosynthetic dependency on light, full coupling of photosynthesis and transpiration through an interactive canopy resistance, and a soil organic carbon dependence for bare-soil albedo. We evaluate the model's performance by running it as part of a simple land surface scheme that is driven by reanalysis data. The evaluation against observational data includes net primary productivity, leaf area index, surface albedo, and diagnosed variables relevant for the closure of the hydrological cycle. In this setup, we find that the model gives an adequate to good simulation of basic large-scale ecological and hydrological variables. Of the variables analyzed in this paper, gross primary productivity is particularly well simulated. The results also reveal the current limitations of the model. The most significant deficiency is the excessive simulation of evapotranspiration in mid- to high northern latitudes during their winter to spring transition. The model has a relative advantage in situations that require some combination of computational efficiency, model transparency and tractability, and the simulation of the large-scale vegetation and land surface characteristics under non-present-day conditions.

POST2 End-To-End Descent and Landing Simulation for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Jody l.; Striepe, Scott A.

2007-01-01

The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used as a basis for an end-to-end descent and landing trajectory simulation that is essential in determining the design and performance capability of lunar descent and landing system models and lunar environment models for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. This POST2-based ALHAT simulation provides descent and landing simulation capability by integrating lunar environment and lander system models (including terrain, sensor, guidance, navigation, and control models), along with the data necessary to design and operate a landing system for robotic, human, and cargo lunar-landing success. This paper presents the current and planned development and model validation of the POST2-based end-to-end trajectory simulation used for the testing, performance and evaluation of ALHAT project system and models.

Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

PubMed

Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

2016-09-21

Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived commitment, influence and confidence of stakeholders in implementing policy and program decisions identified in the modelling process; and the impact of the process in terms of policy and program change. The study will generate empirical evidence on the feasibility and potential value of simulation modelling to support knowledge mobilisation and consensus building in health settings.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

The analysis of a generic air-to-air missile simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Joseph A.; Chappell, Alan R.; Mcmanus, John W.

1994-01-01

A generic missile model was developed to evaluate the benefits of using a dynamic missile fly-out simulation system versus a static missile launch envelope system for air-to-air combat simulation. This paper examines the performance of a launch envelope model and a missile fly-out model. The launch envelope model bases its probability of killing the target aircraft on the target aircraft's position at the launch time of the weapon. The benefits gained from a launch envelope model are the simplicity of implementation and the minimal computational overhead required. A missile fly-out model takes into account the physical characteristics of the missile as it simulates the guidance, propulsion, and movement of the missile. The missile's probability of kill is based on the missile miss distance (or the minimum distance between the missile and the target aircraft). The problems associated with this method of modeling are a larger computational overhead, the additional complexity required to determine the missile miss distance, and the additional complexity of determining the reason(s) the missile missed the target. This paper evaluates the two methods and compares the results of running each method on a comprehensive set of test conditions.

A wind energy benchmark for ABL modelling of a diurnal cycle with a nocturnal low-level jet: GABLS3 revisited

DOE PAGES

Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Churchfield, M.; Kosović, B.

2016-10-03

The third GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS3) model intercomparison study, around the Cabauw met tower in the Netherlands, is revisited as a benchmark for wind energy atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) models. The case was originally developed by the boundary layer meteorology community, interested in analysing the performance of single-column and large-eddy simulation atmospheric models dealing with a diurnal cycle leading to the development of a nocturnal low-level jet. The case addresses fundamental questions related to the definition of the large-scale forcing, the interaction of the ABL with the surface and the evaluation of model results with observations. The characterizationmore » of mesoscale forcing for asynchronous microscale modelling of the ABL is discussed based on momentum budget analysis of WRF simulations. Then a single-column model is used to demonstrate the added value of incorporating different forcing mechanisms in microscale models. The simulations are evaluated in terms of wind energy quantities of interest.« less

MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} pair retrieval simulations for validating tropospheric moisture pathways in atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Matthias; Borger, Christian; Wiegele, Andreas; Hase, Frank; García, Omaira E.; Sepúlveda, Eliezer; Werner, Martin

2017-02-01

The project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water) has shown that the sensor IASI aboard the satellite MetOp can measure the free tropospheric {H2O,δD} pair distribution twice per day on a quasi-global scale. Such data are very promising for investigating tropospheric moisture pathways, however, the complex data characteristics compromise their usage in the context of model evaluation studies. Here we present a tool that allows for simulating MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} pair remote sensing data for a given model atmosphere, thereby creating model data that have the remote sensing data characteristics assimilated. This model data can then be compared to the MUSICA data. The retrieval simulation method is based on the physical principles of radiative transfer and we show that the uncertainty of the simulations is within the uncertainty of the MUSICA MetOp/IASI products, i.e. the retrieval simulations are reliable enough. We demonstrate the working principle of the simulator by applying it to ECHAM5-wiso model data. The few case studies clearly reveal the large potential of the MUSICA MetOp/IASI {H2O,δD} data pairs for evaluating modelled moisture pathways. The tool is made freely available in form of MATLAB and Python routines and can be easily connected to any atmospheric water vapour isotopologue model.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Multiscale Simulations of Protein Landscapes: Using Coarse Grained Models as Reference Potentials to Full Explicit Models

PubMed Central

Messer, Benjamin M.; Roca, Maite; Chu, Zhen T.; Vicatos, Spyridon; Kilshtain, Alexandra Vardi; Warshel, Arieh

2009-01-01

Evaluating the free energy landscape of proteins and the corresponding functional aspects presents a major challenge for computer simulation approaches. This challenge is due to the complexity of the landscape and the enormous computer time needed for converging simulations. The use of simplified coarse grained (CG) folding models offers an effective way of sampling the landscape but such a treatment, however, may not give the correct description of the effect of the actual protein residues. A general way around this problem that has been put forward in our early work (Fan et al, Theor Chem Acc (1999) 103:77-80) uses the CG model as a reference potential for free energy calculations of different properties of the explicit model. This method is refined and extended here, focusing on improving the electrostatic treatment and on demonstrating key applications. This application includes: evaluation of changes of folding energy upon mutations, calculations of transition states binding free energies (which are crucial for rational enzyme design), evaluation of catalytic landscape and simulation of the time dependent responses to pH changes. Furthermore, the general potential of our approach in overcoming major challenges in studies of structure function correlation in proteins is discussed. PMID:20052756

SU-F-T-50: Evaluation of Monte Carlo Simulations Performance for Pediatric Brachytherapy Dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chatzipapas, C; Kagadis, G; Papadimitroulas, P

Purpose: Pediatric tumors are generally treated with multi-modal procedures. Brachytherapy can be used with pediatric tumors, especially given that in this patient population low toxicity on normal tissues is critical as is the suppression of the probability for late malignancies. Our goal is to validate the GATE toolkit on realistic brachytherapy applications, and evaluate brachytherapy plans on pediatrics for accurate dosimetry on sensitive and critical organs of interest. Methods: The GATE Monte Carlo (MC) toolkit was used. Two High Dose Rate (HDR) 192Ir brachytherapy sources were simulated (Nucletron mHDR-v1 and Varian VS2000), and fully validated using the AAPM and ESTROmore » protocols. A realistic brachytherapy plan was also simulated using the XCAT anthropomorphic computational model .The simulated data were compared to the clinical dose points. Finally, a 14 years old girl with vaginal rhabdomyosarcoma was modelled based on clinical procedures for the calculation of the absorbed dose per organ. Results: The MC simulations resulted in accurate dosimetry in terms of dose rate constant (Λ), radial dose gL(r) and anisotropy function F(r,θ) for both sources.The simulations were executed using ∼1010 number of primaries resulting in statistical uncertainties lower than 2%.The differences between the theoretical values and the simulated ones ranged from 0.01% up to 3.3%, with the largest discrepancy (6%) being observed in the dose rate constant calculation.The simulated DVH using an adult female XCAT model was also compared to a clinical one resulting in differences smaller than 5%. Finally, a realistic pediatric brachytherapy simulation was performed to evaluate the absorbed dose per organ and to calculate DVH with respect to heterogeneities of the human anatomy. Conclusion: GATE is a reliable tool for brachytherapy simulations both for source modeling and for dosimetry in anthropomorphic voxelized models. Our project aims to evaluate a variety of pediatric brachytherapy schemes using a population of pediatric phantoms for several pathological cases. This study is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under the MarieSklodowska-Curiegrantagreement.No691203.The results published in this study reflect only the authors view and the Research Executive Agency (REA) and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be madeof the information it contains.« less

RESTSIM: A Simulation Model That Highlights Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinkhan, George M.; Taylor, James R.

1983-01-01

Describes RESTSIM, an interactive computer simulation program for graduate and upper-level undergraduate management, marketing, and retailing courses, which introduces naive users to simulation as a decision support technique, and provides a vehicle for studying various statistical procedures for evaluating simulation output. (MBR)

A YEAR-LONG MM5 EVALUATION USING A MODEL EVALUATION TOOLKIT

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality modeling has expanded in both sophistication and application over the past decade. Meteorological and air quality modeling tools are being used for research, forecasting, and regulatory related emission control strategies. Results from air quality simulations have far...

Global high-resolution simulations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide using CHASER V4.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiya, Takashi; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Ogochi, Koji; Sudo, Kengo; Takigawa, Masayuki

2018-03-01

We evaluate global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) simulations using the CHASER V4.0 global chemical transport model (CTM) at horizontal resolutions of 0.56, 1.1, and 2.8°. Model evaluation was conducted using satellite tropospheric NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and aircraft observations from the 2014 Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPÉ). Agreement against satellite retrievals improved greatly at 1.1 and 0.56° resolutions (compared to 2.8° resolution) over polluted and biomass burning regions. The 1.1° simulation generally captured the regional distribution of the tropospheric NO2 column well, whereas 0.56° resolution was necessary to improve the model performance over areas with strong local sources, with mean bias reductions of 67 % over Beijing and 73 % over San Francisco in summer. Validation using aircraft observations indicated that high-resolution simulations reduced negative NO2 biases below 700 hPa over the Denver metropolitan area. These improvements in high-resolution simulations were attributable to (1) closer spatial representativeness between simulations and observations and (2) better representation of large-scale concentration fields (i.e., at 2.8°) through the consideration of small-scale processes. Model evaluations conducted at 0.5 and 2.8° bin grids indicated that the contributions of both these processes were comparable over most polluted regions, whereas the latter effect (2) made a larger contribution over eastern China and biomass burning areas. The evaluations presented in this paper demonstrate the potential of using a high-resolution global CTM for studying megacity-scale air pollutants across the entire globe, potentially also contributing to global satellite retrievals and chemical data assimilation.

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaherpour, Jamal; Gosling, Simon N.; Mount, Nick; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Schewe, Jacob; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-06-01

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

Comparing Noah-MP simulations of energy and water fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with plot scale measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayler, Sebastian; Wöhling, Thomas; Högy, Petra; Ingwersen, Joachim; Wizemann, Hans-Dieter; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Streck, Thilo

2013-04-01

During the last years, land-surface models have proven to perform well in several studies that compared simulated fluxes of water and energy from the land surface to the atmosphere against measured fluxes at the plot-scale. In contrast, considerable deficits of land-surface models have been identified to simulate soil water fluxes and vertical soil moisture distribution. For example, Gayler et al. (2013) showed that simplifications in the representation of root water uptake can result in insufficient simulations of the vertical distribution of soil moisture and its dynamics. However, in coupled simulations of the terrestrial water cycle, both sub-systems, the atmosphere and the subsurface hydrogeo-system, must fit together and models are needed, which are able to adequately simulate soil moisture, latent heat flux, and their interrelationship. Consequently, land-surface models must be further improved, e.g. by incorporation of advanced biogeophysics models. To improve the conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes in the community land surface model Noah, this model was recently enhanced to Noah-MP by a multi-options framework to parameterize individual processes (Niu et al., 2011). Thus, in Noah-MP the user can choose from several alternative models for vegetation and hydrology processes that can be applied in different combinations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of different Noah-MP model settings to simulate water and energy fluxes across the land surface at two contrasting field sites in South-West Germany. The evaluation is done in 1D offline-mode, i.e. without coupling to an atmospheric model. The atmospheric forcing is provided by measured time series of the relevant variables. Simulation results are compared with eddy covariance measurements of turbulent fluxes and measured time series of soil moisture at different depths. The aims of the study are i) to carve out the most appropriate combination of process parameterizations in Noah-MP to simultaneously match the different components of the water and energy cycle at the field sites under consideration, and ii) to estimate the uncertainty in model structure. We further investigate the potential to improve simulation results by incorporating concepts of more advanced root water uptake models from agricultural field scale models into the land-surface-scheme. Gayler S, Ingwersen J, Priesack E, Wöhling T, Wulfmeyer V, Streck T (2013): Assessing the relevance of sub surface processes for the simulation of evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics with CLM3.5: Comparison with field data and crop model simulations. Environ. Earth Sci., 69(2), under revision. Niu G-Y, Yang Z-L, Mitchell KE, Chen F, Ek MB, Barlage M, Kumar A, Manning K, Niyogi D, Rosero E, Tewari M and Xia Y (2011): The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research 116(D12109).

WRF and WRF-Chem v3.5.1 simulations of meteorology and black carbon concentrations in the Kathmandu Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mues, Andrea; Lauer, Axel; Lupascu, Aurelia; Rupakheti, Maheswar; Kuik, Friderike; Lawrence, Mark G.

2018-06-01

An evaluation of the meteorology simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for the region of south Asia and Nepal with a focus on the Kathmandu Valley is presented. A particular focus of the model evaluation is placed on meteorological parameters that are highly relevant to air quality such as wind speed and direction, boundary layer height and precipitation. The same model setup is then used for simulations with WRF including chemistry and aerosols (WRF-Chem). A WRF-Chem simulation has been performed using the state-of-the-art emission database, EDGAR HTAP v2.2, which is the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, in cooperation with the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, along with a sensitivity simulation using observation-based black carbon emission fluxes for the Kathmandu Valley. The WRF-Chem simulations are analyzed in comparison to black carbon measurements in the valley and to each other. The evaluation of the WRF simulation with a horizontal resolution of 3×3 km2 shows that the model is often able to capture important meteorological parameters inside the Kathmandu Valley and the results for most meteorological parameters are well within the range of biases found in other WRF studies especially in mountain areas. But the evaluation results also clearly highlight the difficulties of capturing meteorological parameters in such complex terrain and reproducing subgrid-scale processes with a horizontal resolution of 3×3 km2. The measured black carbon concentrations are typically systematically and strongly underestimated by WRF-Chem. A sensitivity study with improved emissions in the Kathmandu Valley shows significantly reduced biases but also underlines several limitations of such corrections. Further improvements of the model and of the emission data are needed before being able to use the model to robustly assess air pollution mitigation scenarios in the Kathmandu region.

Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

EVALUATING PREDICTIVE ERRORS OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL USING A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND LEAST SQUARE MEANS

EPA Science Inventory

A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mer...

Applying an integrated model to the evaluation of travel demand management policies in the Sacramento Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-01

The objective of this study was to use an advanced integrated land use and transportation model to evaluate transit and supportive land use and pricing policies; the Sacramento MEPLAN model was to used to simulate these policies. The model represents...

EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGY COMPUTER MODELS, AND THE FEASIBILITY OF THEIR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT.

EPA Science Inventory

This project will evaluate the current state of quantitative models that simulate physiological processes, and the how these models might be used in conjunction with the current use of PBPK and BBDR models in risk assessment. The work will include a literature search to identify...

Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from a lumped to a semi-distributed approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Fréderic; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël; Paquet, Emmanuel; Mathevet, Thibault

2017-08-01

Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration-validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May–September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990–2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000–2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large n

Using Voice Recognition Equipment to Run the Warfare Environmental Simulator (WES),

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

simulations and models are often used. War games are a type of simulation frequently used by the military to evaluate C3 effectiveness. Through the use of a...to 162 words or short phrases (Appendix B). B. EQUIPMENT USED 1. Hardware Description [13] For the experiment a Threshold Model T600 discrete... Model T600 terminal used in this experiment con- sists of an analog speech preprocessor, microcomputer, CRT/keyboard unit, magnetic tape cartridge unit

Developing a Policy Flight Simulator to Facilitate the Adoption of an Evidence-Based Intervention

PubMed Central

Yu, Zhongyuan; Hirschman, Karen B.; Pepe, Kara; Pauly, Mark V.; Naylor, Mary D.; Rouse, William B.

2018-01-01

While the use of evidence-based interventions (EBIs) has been advocated by the medical research community for quite some time, uptake of these interventions by healthcare providers has been slow. One possible explanation is that it is challenging for providers to estimate impacts of a specific EBI on their particular organization. To address that concern, we developed and evaluated a type of simulation called a policy flight simulator to determine if it could improve the adoption decision about a specific EBI, the transitional care model (TCM). The TCM uses an advanced practice nurse-led model of care to transition older adults with multiple chronic conditions from a hospitalization to home. An evaluation by a National Advisory Committee, made up of senior representatives from various stakeholders in the U.S. healthcare system, found the policy flight simulator to be a useful tool that has the potential to better inform adoption decisions. This paper describes the simulation development effort and documents lessons learned that may be useful to the healthcare modeling community and those interested in using simulation to support decisions based on EBIs. PMID:29805921

WRF/CMAQ AQMEII3 Simulations of US Regional-Scale ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Chemical boundary conditions are a key input to regional-scale photochemical models. In this study, performed during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), we perform annual simulations over North America with chemical boundary conditions prepared from four different global models. Results indicate that the impacts of different boundary conditions are significant for ozone throughout the year and most pronounced outside the summer season. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Development of a VOR/DME model for an advanced concepts simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinmetz, G. G.; Bowles, R. L.

1984-01-01

The report presents a definition of a VOR/DME, airborne and ground systems simulation model. This description was drafted in response to a need in the creation of an advanced concepts simulation in which flight station design for the 1980 era can be postulated and examined. The simulation model described herein provides a reasonable representation of VOR/DME station in the continental United States including area coverage by type and noise errors. The detail in which the model has been cast provides the interested researcher with a moderate fidelity level simulator tool for conducting research and evaluation of navigator algorithms. Assumptions made within the development are listed and place certain responsibilities (data bases, communication with other simulation modules, uniform round earth, etc.) upon the researcher.

Evaluation of the ADAPT model for simulating nitrogen dynamics in a tile-drained agricultural watershed in central Illinois.

PubMed

Sogbedji, Jean M; McIsaac, Gregory F

2006-01-01

Assessing the accuracy of agronomic and water quality simulation models in different soils, land-use systems, and environments provides a basis for using and improving these models. We evaluated the performance of the ADAPT model for simulating riverine nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) export from a 1500-km2 watershed in central Illinois, where approximately 85% of the land is used for maize-soybean production and tile drainage is common. Soil chemical properties, crop nitrogen (N) uptake coefficient, dry matter ratio, and a denitrification reduction coefficient were used as calibration parameters to optimize the fit between measured and simulated NO3-N load from the watershed for the 1989 to 1993 period. The applicability of the calibrated parameter values was tested by using these values for simulating the 1994 to 1997 period on the same watershed. Willmott's index of agreement ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual comparisons of riverine nitrate N loads. Simulation accuracy generally decreased as the time interval decreased. Willmott's index for simulated crop yields ranged from 0.91 to 0.99; however, observed crop yields were used as input to the model. The partial N budget results suggested that 52 to 72 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) accumulated in the soil, but simulated biological N fixation associated with soybeans was considerably greater than literature values for the region. Improvement of the N fixation algorithms and incorporation of mechanisms that describe soybean yield in response to environmental conditions appear to be needed to improve the performance of the model.

Performance of the likelihood ratio difference (G2 Diff) test for detecting unidimensionality in applications of the multidimensional Rasch model.

PubMed

Harrell-Williams, Leigh; Wolfe, Edward W

2014-01-01

Previous research has investigated the influence of sample size, model misspecification, test length, ability distribution offset, and generating model on the likelihood ratio difference test in applications of item response models. This study extended that research to the evaluation of dimensionality using the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model (MRCMLM). Logistic regression analysis of simulated data reveal that sample size and test length have a large effect on the capacity of the LR difference test to correctly identify unidimensionality, with shorter tests and smaller sample sizes leading to smaller Type I error rates. Higher levels of simulated misfit resulted in fewer incorrect decisions than data with no or little misfit. However, Type I error rates indicate that the likelihood ratio difference test is not suitable under any of the simulated conditions for evaluating dimensionality in applications of the MRCMLM.

Hydrodynamics and water quality models applied to Sepetiba Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, Cynara de L. da N.; Rosman, Paulo C. C.; Ferreira, Aldo Pacheco; Carlos do Nascimento Monteiro, Teófilo

2006-10-01

A coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model is used to simulate the pollution in Sepetiba Bay due to sewage effluent. Sepetiba Bay has a complicated geometry and bottom topography, and is located on the Brazilian coast near Rio de Janeiro. In the simulation, the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) are used as indicators for the presence of organic matter in the body of water, and as parameters for evaluating the environmental pollution of the eastern part of Sepetiba Bay. Effluent sources in the model are taken from DO and BOD field measurements. The simulation results are consistent with field observations and demonstrate that the model has been correctly calibrated. The model is suitable for evaluating the environmental impact of sewage effluent on Sepetiba Bay from river inflows, assessing the feasibility of different treatment schemes, and developing specific monitoring activities. This approach has general applicability for environmental assessment of complicated coastal bays.

Stochastic Simulation Using @ Risk for Dairy Business Investment Decisions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting fram...

Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

ARL-TR-8284 ● JAN 2018 US Army Research Laboratory Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model......Do not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-8284 ● JAN 2018 US Army Research Laboratory Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory

Evaluating gridded crop model simulations of evapotranspiration and irrigation using survey and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Bobeda, J. R.

2017-12-01

The increasing use of groundwater for irrigation of crops has exacerbated groundwater sustainability issues faced by water limited regions. Gridded, process-based crop models have the potential to help farmers and policymakers asses the effects water shortages on yield and devise new strategies for sustainable water use. Gridded crop models are typically calibrated and evaluated using county-level survey data of yield, planting dates, and maturity dates. However, little is known about the ability of these models to reproduce observed crop evapotranspiration and water use at regional scales. The aim of this work is to evaluate a gridded version of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model over the continental United States. We evaluated crop seasonal evapotranspiration over 5 arc-minute grids, and irrigation water use at the county level. Evapotranspiration was assessed only for rainfed agriculture to test the model evapotranspiration equations separate from the irrigation algorithm. Model evapotranspiration was evaluated against the Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) modeling product. Using a combination of the USDA crop land data layer (CDL) and the USGS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Irrigated Agriculture Dataset for the United States (MIrAD-US), we selected only grids with more than 60% of their area planted with the simulated crops (corn, cotton, and soybean), and less than 20% of their area irrigated. Irrigation water use was compared against the USGS county level irrigated agriculture water use survey data. Simulated gridded data were aggregated to county level using USDA CDL and USGS MIrAD-US. Only counties where 70% or more of the irrigated land was corn, cotton, or soybean were selected for the evaluation. Our results suggest that gridded crop models can reasonably reproduce crop evapotranspiration at the country scale (RRMSE = 10%).

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques.

PubMed

Chung, Eun-Sung; Lee, Kil Seong

2009-03-01

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.

Aerosol single-scattering albedo over the global oceans: Comparing PARASOL retrievals with AERONET, OMI, and AeroCom models estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lacagnina, Carlo; Hasekamp, Otto P.; Bian, Huisheng

2015-09-27

The aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over the global oceans is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL satellite. The retrieved values for SSA and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) agree well with the ground-based measurements of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The global coverage provided by the PARASOL observations represents a unique opportunity to evaluate SSA and AOD simulated by atmospheric transport model runs, as performed in the AeroCom framework. The SSA estimate provided by the AeroCom models is generally higher than the SSA retrieved from both PARASOL and AERONET. On the other hand, the mean simulated AOD ismore » about right or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the SSA by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and underestimate it at surface. This implies that aerosols have a potential stronger impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.« less

Assessing the CAM5 Physics Suite in the WRF-Chem Model: Implementation, Resolution Sensitivity, and a First Evaluation for a Regional Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.

A suite of physical parameterizations (deep and shallow convection, turbulent boundary layer, aerosols, cloud microphysics, and cloud fraction) from the global climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) has been implemented in the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry (WRF-Chem). A downscaling modeling framework with consistent physics has also been established in which both global and regional simulations use the same emissions and surface fluxes. The WRF-Chem model with the CAM5 physics suite is run at multiple horizontal resolutions over a domain encompassing the northern Pacific Ocean, northeast Asia, and northwest North America for April 2008 whenmore » the ARCTAS, ARCPAC, and ISDAC field campaigns took place. These simulations are evaluated against field campaign measurements, satellite retrievals, and ground-based observations, and are compared with simulations that use a set of common WRF-Chem Parameterizations. This manuscript describes the implementation of the CAM5 physics suite in WRF-Chem provides an overview of the modeling framework and an initial evaluation of the simulated meteorology, clouds, and aerosols, and quantifies the resolution dependence of the cloud and aerosol parameterizations. We demonstrate that some of the CAM5 biases, such as high estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols and the underestimation of aerosol concentrations in the Arctic, can be reduced simply by increasing horizontal resolution. We also show that the CAM5 physics suite performs similarly to a set of parameterizations commonly used in WRF-Chem, but produces higher ice and liquid water condensate amounts and near-surface black carbon concentration. Further evaluations that use other mesoscale model parameterizations and perform other case studies are needed to infer whether one parameterization consistently produces results more consistent with observations.« less

Evaluation of a two-dimensional numerical model for air quality simulation in a street canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Shin `Ichi; Lin, Fu Chi; Yamada, Hiroaki; Shiozawa, Kiyoshige

For many urban areas, the most severe air pollution caused by automobile emissions appears along a road surrounded by tall buildings: the so=called street canyon. A practical two-dimensional numerical model has been developed to be applied to this kind of road structure. This model contains two submodels: a wind-field model and a diffusion model based on a Monte Carlo particle scheme. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of this model, an air quality simulation was carried out at three trunk roads in the Tokyo metropolitan area: Nishi-Shimbashi, Aoyama and Kanda-Nishikicho (using SF 6 as a tracer and NO x measurement). Since this model has two-dimensional properties and cannot be used for the parallel wind condition, the perpendicular wind condition was selected for the simulation. The correlation coefficients for the SF 6 and NO x data in Aoyama were 0.67 and 0.62, respectively. When predictive performance of this model is compared with other models, this model is comparable to the SRI model, and superior to the APPS three-dimensional numerical model.

Managing complexity in simulations of land surface and near-surface processes

DOE PAGES

Coon, Ethan T.; Moulton, J. David; Painter, Scott L.

2016-01-12

Increasing computing power and the growing role of simulation in Earth systems science have led to an increase in the number and complexity of processes in modern simulators. We present a multiphysics framework that specifies interfaces for coupled processes and automates weak and strong coupling strategies to manage this complexity. Process management is enabled by viewing the system of equations as a tree, where individual equations are associated with leaf nodes and coupling strategies with internal nodes. A dynamically generated dependency graph connects a variable to its dependencies, streamlining and automating model evaluation, easing model development, and ensuring models aremore » modular and flexible. Additionally, the dependency graph is used to ensure that data requirements are consistent between all processes in a given simulation. Here we discuss the design and implementation of these concepts within the Arcos framework, and demonstrate their use for verification testing and hypothesis evaluation in numerical experiments.« less

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Eigen-disfigurement model for simulating plausible facial disfigurement after reconstructive surgery.

PubMed

Lee, Juhun; Fingeret, Michelle C; Bovik, Alan C; Reece, Gregory P; Skoracki, Roman J; Hanasono, Matthew M; Markey, Mia K

2015-03-27

Patients with facial cancers can experience disfigurement as they may undergo considerable appearance changes from their illness and its treatment. Individuals with difficulties adjusting to facial cancer are concerned about how others perceive and evaluate their appearance. Therefore, it is important to understand how humans perceive disfigured faces. We describe a new strategy that allows simulation of surgically plausible facial disfigurement on a novel face for elucidating the human perception on facial disfigurement. Longitudinal 3D facial images of patients (N = 17) with facial disfigurement due to cancer treatment were replicated using a facial mannequin model, by applying Thin-Plate Spline (TPS) warping and linear interpolation on the facial mannequin model in polar coordinates. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to capture longitudinal structural and textural variations found within each patient with facial disfigurement arising from the treatment. We treated such variations as disfigurement. Each disfigurement was smoothly stitched on a healthy face by seeking a Poisson solution to guided interpolation using the gradient of the learned disfigurement as the guidance field vector. The modeling technique was quantitatively evaluated. In addition, panel ratings of experienced medical professionals on the plausibility of simulation were used to evaluate the proposed disfigurement model. The algorithm reproduced the given face effectively using a facial mannequin model with less than 4.4 mm maximum error for the validation fiducial points that were not used for the processing. Panel ratings of experienced medical professionals on the plausibility of simulation showed that the disfigurement model (especially for peripheral disfigurement) yielded predictions comparable to the real disfigurements. The modeling technique of this study is able to capture facial disfigurements and its simulation represents plausible outcomes of reconstructive surgery for facial cancers. Thus, our technique can be used to study human perception on facial disfigurement.

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, A.L.; Charlton, T.J.; Ortel, T.W.; Vonnahme, C.C.; ,

1998-01-01

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

A Comparative Study of High and Low Fidelity Fan Models for Turbofan Engine System Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, John A.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

1991-01-01

In this paper, a heterogeneous propulsion system simulation method is presented. The method is based on the formulation of a cycle model of a gas turbine engine. The model includes the nonlinear characteristics of the engine components via use of empirical data. The potential to simulate the entire engine operation on a computer without the aid of data is demonstrated by numerically generating "performance maps" for a fan component using two flow models of varying fidelity. The suitability of the fan models were evaluated by comparing the computed performance with experimental data. A discussion of the potential benefits and/or difficulties in connecting simulations solutions of differing fidelity is given.

Interpreting Predictions from the SAPRC07 Mechanism Based on Regional and Continental Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

The SAPRC07T mechanism is implemented and evaluated in the CMAQ air quality model. The implementation is described and tested with simulations over the United States for two periods. The evaluation compares results against observations for ozone and particulate matter as well as ...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emis...

Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Kevin M.; Smith, Brennan T.; Witt, Adam M.

Grounded in the stakeholder-validated framework established in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s SMH Exemplary Design Envelope Specification, this report on Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) Technology provides insight into the concepts, use cases, needs, gaps, and challenges associated with modeling and simulating SMH technologies. The SMH concept envisions a network of generation, passage, and foundation modules that achieve environmentally compatible, cost-optimized hydropower using standardization and modularity. The development of standardized modeling approaches and simulation techniques for SMH (as described in this report) will pave the way for reliable, cost-effective methods for technology evaluation, optimization, and verification.

Software for Brain Network Simulations: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Tikidji-Hamburyan, Ruben A.; Narayana, Vikram; Bozkus, Zeki; El-Ghazawi, Tarek A.

2017-01-01

Numerical simulations of brain networks are a critical part of our efforts in understanding brain functions under pathological and normal conditions. For several decades, the community has developed many software packages and simulators to accelerate research in computational neuroscience. In this article, we select the three most popular simulators, as determined by the number of models in the ModelDB database, such as NEURON, GENESIS, and BRIAN, and perform an independent evaluation of these simulators. In addition, we study NEST, one of the lead simulators of the Human Brain Project. First, we study them based on one of the most important characteristics, the range of supported models. Our investigation reveals that brain network simulators may be biased toward supporting a specific set of models. However, all simulators tend to expand the supported range of models by providing a universal environment for the computational study of individual neurons and brain networks. Next, our investigations on the characteristics of computational architecture and efficiency indicate that all simulators compile the most computationally intensive procedures into binary code, with the aim of maximizing their computational performance. However, not all simulators provide the simplest method for module development and/or guarantee efficient binary code. Third, a study of their amenability for high-performance computing reveals that NEST can almost transparently map an existing model on a cluster or multicore computer, while NEURON requires code modification if the model developed for a single computer has to be mapped on a computational cluster. Interestingly, parallelization is the weakest characteristic of BRIAN, which provides no support for cluster computations and limited support for multicore computers. Fourth, we identify the level of user support and frequency of usage for all simulators. Finally, we carry out an evaluation using two case studies: a large network with simplified neural and synaptic models and a small network with detailed models. These two case studies allow us to avoid any bias toward a particular software package. The results indicate that BRIAN provides the most concise language for both cases considered. Furthermore, as expected, NEST mostly favors large network models, while NEURON is better suited for detailed models. Overall, the case studies reinforce our general observation that simulators have a bias in the computational performance toward specific types of the brain network models. PMID:28775687

Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ming; Griffis, Tim J.; Baker, John; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Xiao, Ke

2015-02-01

A reasonable representation of crop phenology and biophysical processes in land surface models is necessary to accurately simulate energy, water, and carbon budgets at the field, regional, and global scales. However, the evaluation of crop models that can be coupled to Earth system models is relatively rare. Here we evaluated two such models (CLM4-Crop and CLM3.5-CornSoy), both implemented within the Community Land Model (CLM) framework, at two AmeriFlux corn-soybean sites to assess their ability to simulate phenology, energy, and carbon fluxes. Our results indicated that the accuracy of net ecosystem exchange and gross primary production simulations was intimately connected to the phenology simulations. The CLM4-Crop model consistently overestimated early growing season leaf area index, causing an overestimation of gross primary production, to such an extent that the model simulated a carbon sink instead of the measured carbon source for corn. The CLM3.5-CornSoy-simulated leaf area index (LAI), energy, and carbon fluxes showed stronger correlations with observations compared to CLM4-Crop. Net radiation was biased high in both models and was especially pronounced for soybeans. This was primarily caused by the positive LAI bias, which led to a positive net long-wave radiation bias. CLM4-Crop underestimated soil water content during midgrowing season in all soil layers at the two sites, which caused unrealistic water stress, especially for soybean. Future work regarding the mechanisms that drive early growing season phenology and soil water dynamics is needed to better represent crops including their net radiation balance, energy partitioning, and carbon cycle processes.

Improved simulation of regional CO2 surface concentrations using GEOS-Chem and fluxes from VEGAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z. H.; Zhu, J.; Zeng, N.

2013-08-01

CO2 measurements have been combined with simulated CO2 distributions from a transport model in order to produce the optimal estimates of CO2 surface fluxes in inverse modeling. However, one persistent problem in using model-observation comparisons for this goal relates to the issue of compatibility. Observations at a single station reflect all underlying processes of various scales. These processes usually cannot be fully resolved by model simulations at the grid points nearest the station due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution or missing processes in the model. In this study the stations in one region were grouped based on the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle at each station. The regionally averaged CO2 at all stations in one region represents the regional CO2 concentration of this region. The regional CO2 concentrations from model simulations and observations were used to evaluate the regional model results. The difference of the regional CO2 concentration between observation and modeled results reflects the uncertainty of the large-scale flux in the region where the grouped stations are. We compared the regional CO2 concentrations between model results with biospheric fluxes from the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) models, and used observations from GLOBALVIEW-CO2 to evaluate the regional model results. The results show the largest difference of the regionally averaged values between simulations with fluxes from VEGAS and observations is less than 5 ppm for North American boreal, North American temperate, Eurasian boreal, Eurasian temperate and Europe, which is smaller than the largest difference between CASA simulations and observations (more than 5 ppm). There is still a large difference between two model results and observations for the regional CO2 concentration in the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific tropics. The regionally averaged CO2 concentrations will be helpful for comparing CO2 concentrations from modeled results and observations and evaluating regional surface fluxes from different methods.

Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

2018-04-01

Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated simulation of the sewer system and RSF model mainly originate from the model parameters of the hydrologic sewer system model.

Evaluating significance in linear mixed-effects models in R.

PubMed

Luke, Steven G

2017-08-01

Mixed-effects models are being used ever more frequently in the analysis of experimental data. However, in the lme4 package in R the standards for evaluating significance of fixed effects in these models (i.e., obtaining p-values) are somewhat vague. There are good reasons for this, but as researchers who are using these models are required in many cases to report p-values, some method for evaluating the significance of the model output is needed. This paper reports the results of simulations showing that the two most common methods for evaluating significance, using likelihood ratio tests and applying the z distribution to the Wald t values from the model output (t-as-z), are somewhat anti-conservative, especially for smaller sample sizes. Other methods for evaluating significance, including parametric bootstrapping and the Kenward-Roger and Satterthwaite approximations for degrees of freedom, were also evaluated. The results of these simulations suggest that Type 1 error rates are closest to .05 when models are fitted using REML and p-values are derived using the Kenward-Roger or Satterthwaite approximations, as these approximations both produced acceptable Type 1 error rates even for smaller samples.

Comparison between artificial neural network and multilinear regression models in an evaluation of cognitive workload in a flight simulator.

PubMed

Hannula, Manne; Huttunen, Kerttu; Koskelo, Jukka; Laitinen, Tomi; Leino, Tuomo

2008-01-01

In this study, the performances of artificial neural network (ANN) analysis and multilinear regression (MLR) model-based estimation of heart rate were compared in an evaluation of individual cognitive workload. The data comprised electrocardiography (ECG) measurements and an evaluation of cognitive load that induces psychophysiological stress (PPS), collected from 14 interceptor fighter pilots during complex simulated F/A-18 Hornet air battles. In our data, the mean absolute error of the ANN estimate was 11.4 as a visual analog scale score, being 13-23% better than the mean absolute error of the MLR model in the estimation of cognitive workload.

Development and evaluation of a reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.

2017-01-27

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes reservoir on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers who determine the optimal operation of the dam at McHenry, Illinois, to help minimize damages to property and loss of life because of flooding on the Fox River. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey; the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources; and National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate flows and to prepare proactively for precipitation events in near real time in the upper Fox River watershed. The purpose of this report is to document the development and evaluation of the Chain of Lakes reservoir model developed in this study.The reservoir model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Reservoir System Simulation program. Because of the complex relation between the dam headwater and reservoir pool elevations, the reservoir model uses a linear regression model that relates dam headwater elevation to reservoir pool elevation. The linear regression model was developed using 17 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow measurements, along with the gage height in the reservoir pool and the gage height at the dam headwater. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients for all three linear regression model variables ranged from 0.90 to 0.98.The reservoir model performance was evaluated by graphically comparing simulated and observed reservoir pool elevation time series during nine periods of high pool elevation. In addition, the peak elevations during these time periods were graphically compared to the closest-in-time observed pool elevation peak. The mean difference in the simulated and observed peak elevations was -0.03 feet, with a standard deviation of 0.19 feet. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for peak prediction was calculated as 0.94. Evaluation of the model based on accuracy of peak prediction and the ability to simulate an elevation time series showed the performance of the model was satisfactory.

A sensor simulation framework for the testing and evaluation of external hazard monitors and integrated alerting and notification functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijt de Haag, Maarten; Venable, Kyle; Bezawada, Rajesh; Adami, Tony; Vadlamani, Ananth K.

2009-05-01

This paper discusses a sensor simulator/synthesizer framework that can be used to test and evaluate various sensor integration strategies for the implementation of an External Hazard Monitor (EHM) and Integrated Alerting and Notification (IAN) function as part of NASA's Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck (IIFD) project. The IIFD project under the NASA's Aviation Safety program "pursues technologies related to the flight deck that ensure crew workload and situational awareness are both safely optimized and adapted to the future operational environment as envisioned by NextGen." Within the simulation framework, various inputs to the IIFD and its subsystems, the EHM and IAN, are simulated, synthesized from actual collected data, or played back from actual flight test sensor data. Sensors and avionics included in this framework are TCAS, ADS-B, Forward-Looking Infrared, Vision cameras, GPS, Inertial navigators, EGPWS, Laser Detection and Ranging sensors, altimeters, communication links with ATC, and weather radar. The framework is implemented in Simulink, a modeling language developed by The Mathworks. This modeling language allows for test and evaluation of various sensor and communication link configurations as well as the inclusion of feedback from the pilot on the performance of the aircraft. Specifically, this paper addresses the architecture of the simulator, the sensor model interfaces, the timing and database (environment) aspects of the sensor models, the user interface of the modeling environment, and the various avionics implementations.

JIMM: the next step for mission-level models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gump, Jamieson; Kurker, Robert G.; Nalepka, Joseph P.

2001-09-01

The (Simulation Based Acquisition) SBA process is one in which the planning, design, and test of a weapon system or other product is done through the more effective use of modeling and simulation, information technology, and process improvement. This process results in a product that is produced faster, cheaper, and more reliably than its predecessors. Because the SBA process requires realistic and detailed simulation conditions, it was necessary to develop a simulation tool that would provide a simulation environment acceptable for doing SBA analysis. The Joint Integrated Mission Model (JIMM) was created to help define and meet the analysis, test and evaluation, and training requirements of a Department of Defense program utilizing SBA. Through its generic nature of representing simulation entities, its data analysis capability, and its robust configuration management process, JIMM can be used to support a wide range of simulation applications as both a constructive and a virtual simulation tool. JIMM is a Mission Level Model (MLM). A MLM is capable of evaluating the effectiveness and survivability of a composite force of air and space systems executing operational objectives in a specific scenario against an integrated air and space defense system. Because MLMs are useful for assessing a system's performance in a realistic, integrated, threat environment, they are key to implementing the SBA process. JIMM is a merger of the capabilities of one legacy model, the Suppressor MLM, into another, the Simulated Warfare Environment Generator (SWEG) MLM. By creating a more capable MLM, JIMM will not only be a tool to support the SBA initiative, but could also provide the framework for the next generation of MLMs.

Operation and evaluation of the terminal configured vehicle mission simulator in an automated terminal area metering and spacing ATC environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houck, J. A.

1979-01-01

The development of a mission simulator for use in the Terminal Configured Vehicle (TCV) program is outlined. The broad objectives of the TCV program are to evaluate new concepts in airborne systems and in operational flight procedures. These evaluations are directed toward improving terminal area capacity and efficiency, improving approach and landing capability in adverse weather, and reducing noise impact in the terminal area. A description is given of the design features and operating principles of the two major components of the TCV Mission Simulator: the TCV Aft Flight Deck Simulation and the Terminal Area Air Traffic Model Simulation, and their merger to form the TCV Mission Simulator. The first research study conducted in the Mission Simulator is presented along with some preliminary results.

USING TIME VARIANT VOLTAGE TO CALCULATE ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POWER USE OF BUILDING SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makhmalbaf, Atefe; Augenbroe , Godfried

2015-12-09

Buildings are the main consumers of electricity across the world. However, in the research and studies related to building performance assessment, the focus has been on evaluating the energy efficiency of buildings whereas the instantaneous power efficiency has been overlooked as an important aspect of total energy consumption. As a result, we never developed adequate models that capture both thermal and electrical characteristics (e.g., voltage) of building systems to assess the impact of variations in the power system and emerging technologies of the smart grid on buildings energy and power performance and vice versa. This paper argues that the powermore » performance of buildings as a function of electrical parameters should be evaluated in addition to systems’ mechanical and thermal behavior. The main advantage of capturing electrical behavior of building load is to better understand instantaneous power consumption and more importantly to control it. Voltage is one of the electrical parameters that can be used to describe load. Hence, voltage dependent power models are constructed in this work and they are coupled with existing thermal energy models. Lack of models that describe electrical behavior of systems also adds to the uncertainty of energy consumption calculations carried out in building energy simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, a common building energy modeling and simulation tool. To integrate voltage-dependent power models with thermal models, the thermal cycle (operation mode) of each system was fed into the voltage-based electrical model. Energy consumption of systems used in this study were simulated using EnergyPlus. Simulated results were then compared with estimated and measured power data. The mean square error (MSE) between simulated, estimated, and measured values were calculated. Results indicate that estimated power has lower MSE when compared with measured data than simulated results. Results discussed in this paper will illustrate the significance of enhancing building energy models with electrical characteristics. This would support different studies such as those related to modernization of the power system that require micro scale building-grid interaction, evaluating building energy efficiency with power efficiency considerations, and also design and control decisions that rely on accuracy of building energy simulation results.« less

Source apportionment of exposures to volatile organic compounds. I. Evaluation of receptor models using simulated exposure data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Shelly L.; Anderson, Melissa J.; Daly, Eileen P.; Milford, Jana B.

Four receptor-oriented source apportionment models were evaluated by applying them to simulated personal exposure data for select volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that were generated by Monte Carlo sampling from known source contributions and profiles. The exposure sources modeled are environmental tobacco smoke, paint emissions, cleaning and/or pesticide products, gasoline vapors, automobile exhaust, and wastewater treatment plant emissions. The receptor models analyzed are chemical mass balance, principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores, positive matrix factorization (PMF), and graphical ratio analysis for composition estimates/source apportionment by factors with explicit restriction, incorporated in the UNMIX model. All models identified only the major contributors to total exposure concentrations. PMF extracted factor profiles that most closely represented the major sources used to generate the simulated data. None of the models were able to distinguish between sources with similar chemical profiles. Sources that contributed <5% to the average total VOC exposure were not identified.

The Local Minima Problem in Hierarchical Classes Analysis: An Evaluation of a Simulated Annealing Algorithm and Various Multistart Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ceulemans, Eva; Van Mechelen, Iven; Leenen, Iwin

2007-01-01

Hierarchical classes models are quasi-order retaining Boolean decomposition models for N-way N-mode binary data. To fit these models to data, rationally started alternating least squares (or, equivalently, alternating least absolute deviations) algorithms have been proposed. Extensive simulation studies showed that these algorithms succeed quite…

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...