Evaluating Potential Human Health Risks Associated with the Development of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Facilities on Contaminated Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, J. -J.; Chang, Y. -S.; Hartmann, H.

2013-09-01

This report presents a general methodology for obtaining preliminary estimates of the potential human health risks associated with developing a utility-scale solar energy facility on a contaminated site, based on potential exposures to contaminants in soils (including transport of those contaminants into the air).

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.

PubMed

Gabardi, Steven

2013-03-01

To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the inhibitors' risk-benefit profiles.

Assessing environmental risks for established invasive weeds: Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica) and yellow (L. vulgaris) toadflax in North America

Treesearch

Sharlene E. Sing; Robert K. D. Peterson

2011-01-01

Environmental risk assessments characterizing potential environmental impacts of exotic weeds are more abundant and comprehensive for potential or new invaders than for widespread and well-established species such as Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow (L. vulgaris Mill.) toadflax. Specific effects evaluated in our assessment of environmental risks...

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Application of Toxicity Identification and Evaluation Procedures for Dredged Material Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

that may pose a risk to human health and the environment. The potential for risk ultimately depends on the final disposition of the dredged material... human health and ecological receptors. This information is also useful when evaluating dredged material for open water disposal since it could eliminate...and potential for exposure to humans or ecological receptors. The Inland Testing and Ocean Disposal Manuals establish a multi-step testing protocol

Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

Technical Guidelines for Environmental Dredging of Contaminated Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

health and ecological risk assessments . • Evaluate the need for and effectiveness of source control. • Evaluate potential remedies. • Document... risk , resource damage assessments , remedy selec- tion, and remedy design). It is therefore important to consult as many data users as possible (e.g...Contaminated Sediment Risks at Hazardous Waste Sites (USEPA 2002a). Risk Management Prin- ciple Number 4 is: “Develop and refine a conceptual site model that

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Ecological Risk Assessment Process under the Endangered Species Act

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides an overview of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ecological risk assessment process for the evaluation of potential risk to endangered and threatened (listed) species from exposure to pesticides.

NASA Collaborative Approach Mitigates Environmentally-Driven Obsolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Brian; Leeney, Bob; Richards, Joni

2016-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions, like Department of Defense (DoD) organizations, require the rigorous testing and qualification of critical materials. Obsolescence supply risks created by environmental requirements can affect the cost, schedule and performance of NASA missions and the resilience of critical infrastructure. The NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center helps to identify obsolescence supply risks driven by environmental requirements and works proactively with NASA Centers and Programs, the DoD, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other agencies and partners to identify and evaluate environmentally friendly alternatives. TEERM tracks environmental regulations, identifies the potential loss of material availability and works with NASA programs and Centers to evaluate potential impacts through a risk assessment approach. TEERM collaborative projects identify, demonstrate and evaluate commercially viable alternative technologies and materials. A major focus during the Space Shuttle Program was the need to replace ozone depleting substances that were used in spray foam and cleaning applications. The potential obsolescence of coatings containing hexavalent chromium and the risks associated with lead free solder were also of concern for the Space Shuttle and present ongoing risks to new programs such as the Space Launch System. One current project teams NASA and ESA in the evaluation and testing of individual coatings and coating systems as replacements for hexavalent chromium coatings in aerospace applications. The proactive, collaborative approach used by TEERM helps reduce the cost burden on any one team partner, reduces duplication of effort, and enhances the technical quality and overall applicability of the testing and analysis.

MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR LAND APPLICATION OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

EPA Science Inventory

Each major option for the disposal/reuse of municipal sludges poses potential risks to human health or the environment because of the microbial contaminants in sludge. Therefore, risk assessment methodology appropriate for pathogen risk evaluation for land application and distrib...

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

PubMed

Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

2017-09-12

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method

PubMed Central

Deng, Xinyang

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:28895905

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). This assessment addresses the potential noncancer human health effects from long-term inhalation exposure to ammonia. Now final, this assessment will update the current toxicological information on ammonia posted in 1991. EPA’s program and regional offices may use this assessment to inform decisions to protect human health. EPA completed the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

PubMed

Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

2017-02-01

Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Assessing potential health risks to fish and humans using mercury concentrations in inland fish from across western Canada and the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Jesse M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Tate, Michael T.; Lutz, Michelle A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Willacker, James J.; Jackson, Allyson K.; Evers, David C.; Wiener, James G.; Pritz, Colleen Flanagan; Davis, Jay

2016-01-01

Fish represent high quality protein and nutrient sources, but Hg contamination is ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems and can pose health risks to fish and their consumers. Potential health risks posed to fish and humans by Hg contamination in fish were assessed in western Canada and the United States. A large compilation of inland fish Hg concentrations was evaluated in terms of potential health risk to the fish themselves, health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish, and to humans that consume Hg contaminated fish. The probability that a fish collected from a given location would exceed a Hg concentration benchmark relevant to a health risk was calculated. These exceedance probabilities and their associated uncertainties were characterized for fish of multiple size classes at multiple health-relevant benchmarks. The approach was novel and allowed for the assessment of the potential for deleterious health effects in fish and humans associated with Hg contamination in fish across this broad study area. Exceedance probabilities were relatively common at low Hg concentration benchmarks, particularly for fish in larger size classes. Specifically, median exceedances for the largest size classes of fish evaluated at the lowest Hg concentration benchmarks were 0.73 (potential health risks to fish themselves), 0.90 (potential health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish), and 0.97 (potential for restricted fish consumption by humans), but diminished to essentially zero at the highest benchmarks and smallest fish size classes. Exceedances of benchmarks are likely to have deleterious health effects on fish and limit recommended amounts of fish humans consume in western Canada and the United States. Results presented here are not intended to subvert or replace local fish Hg data or consumption advice, but provide a basis for identifying areas of potential health risk and developing more focused future research and monitoring efforts.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Evaluation of potential risks from ash disposal site leachate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, W.B.; Loh, J.Y.; Bate, M.C.

1999-04-01

A risk-based approach is used to evaluate potential human health risks associated with a discharge from an ash disposal site into a small stream. The RIVRISK model was used to estimate downstream concentrations and corresponding risks. The modeling and risk analyses focus on boron, the constituent of greatest potential concern to public health at the site investigated, in Riddle Run, Pennsylvania. Prior to performing the risk assessment, the model is validated by comparing observed and predicted results. The comparison is good and an uncertainty analysis is provided to explain the comparison. The hazard quotient (HQ) for boron is predicted tomore » be greater than 1 at presently regulated compliance points over a range of flow rates. The reference dose (RfD) currently recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) was used for the analyses. However, the toxicity of boron as expressed by the RfD is now under review by both the U.S. EPA and the World Health Organization. Alternative reference doses being examined would produce predicted boron hazard quotients of less than 1 at nearly all flow conditions.« less

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of ammonia that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of n-butanol that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for n-butanol. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

78 FR 34031 - Burned Area Emergency Response, Forest Service

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

...) Evaluate potential threats to critical values; (2) determine the risk level for each threat; (3) identify... actions that meet the objectives; (6) evaluate potential response actions on likelihood for timely... stabilization actions. Improved the descriptive guidelines for employing response actions involving...

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic.

PubMed

Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian

2010-06-01

The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.

2007-01-01

Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…

Potential Genetic Risk Factors for Chronic TMD: Genetic Associations from the OPPERA Case Control Study

PubMed Central

Smith, Shad B.; Maixner, Dylan; Greenspan, Joel; Dubner, Ron; Fillingim, Roger; Ohrbach, Richard; Knott, Charles; Slade, Gary; Bair, Eric; Gibson, Dustin G.; Zaykin, Dmitri V.; Weir, Bruce; Maixner, William; Diatchenko, Luda

2011-01-01

Genetic factors play a role in the etiology of persistent pain conditions, putatively by modulating underlying processes such as nociceptive sensitivity, psychological well-being, inflammation, and autonomic response. However, to date, only a few genes have been associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMD). This study evaluated 358 genes involved in pain processes, comparing allelic frequencies between 166 cases with chronic TMD and 1442 controls enrolled in the OPPERA (Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment) study cooperative agreement. To enhance statistical power, 182 TMD cases and 170 controls from a similar study were included in the analysis. Genotyping was performed using the Pain Research Panel, an Affymetrix gene chip representing 3295 single nucleotide polymorphisms, including ancestry-informative markers that were used to adjust for population stratification. Adjusted associations between genetic markers and TMD case status were evaluated using logistic regression. The OPPERA findings provided evidence supporting previously-reported associations between TMD and two genes: HTR2A and COMT. Other genes were revealed as potential new genetic risk factors for TMD, including NR3C1, CAMK4, CHRM2, IFRD1, and GRK5. While these findings need to be replicated in independent cohorts, the genes potentially represent important markers of risk for TMD and they identify potential targets for therapeutic intervention. PMID:22074755

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, M.

2003-04-01

Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

Effect of diet- and lifestyle-based metabolic risk-modifying interventions on preeclampsia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Allen, Rebecca; Rogozinska, Ewelina; Sivarajasingam, Priya; Khan, Khalid S; Thangaratinam, Shakila

2014-10-01

To evaluate the effect of dietary and lifestyle interventions with the potential to modify metabolic risk factors on the risk of preeclampsia. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane from inception until February 2013. Randomized trials in pregnant women evaluating the effect of dietary and lifestyle interventions with the potential to modify metabolic risks such as obesity, hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia and hypertension on the risk of preeclampsia were included. Two independent reviewers selected studies, extracted data and assessed quality. Results were summarized as pooled relative risks (RR) for dichotomous data. Eighteen studies (8712 women) met our search criteria for inclusion. Six studies evaluated diet (2695 women), six studied mixed interventions with diet, physical activity and lifestyle (1438 women) and six assessed essential fatty acid supplementation (4579 women). The interventions overall reduced the risk of preeclampsia (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.94; p = 0.006 I(2) = 0%) compared with the control group. Dietary interventions reduced the risk of preeclampsia by 33% (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.85; p = 0.001; I(2) = 0%). There was no reduction in the risk of preeclampsia with mixed interventions (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.66-1.32, p = 0.68, I(2) = 0%) or fatty acid supplementation (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71-1.18; p = 0.49, I(2) = 15%). Meta-regression showed a borderline impact of gestational diabetes status (p = 0.05) on the observed effect. Dietary and lifestyle interventions have the potential to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. The effect of additional therapeutic interventions in women with gestational diabetes mellitus on preeclampsia is not known. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

BIG DARBY CREEK WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

Middle Platte River Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

What is an ecological risk assessment?

An ecological risk assessment evaluates the potential adverse effects of human activities on the plants and animals that make up ecosystems. The risk assessment process provides a way to develop, organize and present sc...

Guidance on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Pesticide Chemicals that have a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides guidance to OPP scientists for evaluating and estimating the potential human risks associated with such multichemical and multipathway exposures to pesticides. This process is referred to as cumulative risk assessment.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) (External ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review and public comment of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of tetrahydrofuran (THF) that when finalized will appear on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Vulnerability assessment of New Jersey's food supply to invasive species: the New Jersey IMPORT project.

PubMed

Gregory, Petros; Hamilton, George; Borjan, Marija; Robson, Mark

2006-01-01

The United States' environment and economy have been severely impacted by unintentionally introduced biological organisms for the last 100 years. Our ecosystems and biological reserves of conservation importance are regularly invaded by non-indigenous species. To help prevent future invaders from entering the ports, this project undertaken at the Port of Elizabeth proposed to: 1. Catalog the different vegetable and fruit crops entering this country; 2. Evaluate the potential risk to New Jersey crops that an introduced exotic pest might pose; and 3. Evaluate the potential that imported crops entering the U.S. have for harboring exotic pests. The New Jersey IMPORT report, or Invasive Management Promoting Open and Responsible Trade project, details a newly designed ecological risk assessment tool to evaluate entry potential of invasive pests at the Port of Elizabeth. Risk designations were assigned to shipments of four fruits; seven vegetables; and two field/forage crops based on: i) Country of origin; ii) Amounts of commodities imported; and iii) Endemic pests present in exporting countries. Between 5,000 and 180,000 tons of crops were imported into the Port of Elizabeth from October 2001 to 2003. Pest risk analyses were drafted for twenty-five intercepted insects taken from the Port Information Network. In addition, eighteen pest risk analyses were drafted for invasive fungi, bacteria, and viruses of global concern as alerted by ProMed Digest. It was concluded that three crops imported remain at high risk: apples, peppers, and tomatoes. Peaches, soybeans, lettuce, sweet corn, potatoes, squash, and eggplant imported were considered moderate risk. Blueberries, cranberries, and alfalfa were considered low risk.

A GIS technology based potential eco-risk assessment of metals in urban soils in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Meie; Bai, Yanying; Chen, Weiping; Markert, Bernd; Peng, Chi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-02-01

Ecological risks of heavy metals in urban soils were evaluated using Beijing, China as an example. Cadmium, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni contents of 233 surface soils sampled by 1 min latitude × 1 min longitude grid were used to identify their spatial distribution patterns and potential emission sources. Throughout the city, longer the duration of urbanization greater was the accumulations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. The soil Zn mainly came from the wears of vehicular tires. Point source emissions of heavy metals were few and far in the downwind south-east quadrant of Beijing. The calculated risk indices showed potential median eco-risks in the ancient central city. No potential high eco-risk due to soil-borne heavy metals was found. The potential medium eco-risk areas in Beijing would expand from the initial 24 to 110 km(2) if soil pH were to reduce by 0.5 units in anticipation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 7. Performance Evaluation of the 600-GPH Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU): reverse Osmosis (RO) Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

Data-for ASsessingHealthRISKS In Potential Theaters ~ of Operation forU,5. Mil-itary._orces. Jf-jr cLAss t:cAToN 9; r-.$ ’AGg UNCLASSIFIED Volume 7...Bypass, Potable-Water Disinfection,_ and Water-Quality Analysis Techniques; and Vol. 9, Data for Assessing Health Risks in Potential Theaters of Operation ...cleaning the RO elements, with objectives of improving solute rejection and reducing operating pressure. The most common method is to flush citric acid

Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Benzene in Petroleum Refinery Environments

PubMed Central

Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

2015-01-01

The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

Evaluating Potential Exposures to Ecological Receptors Due to Transport of Hydrophobic Organic Contaminants in Subsurface Systems (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report, Evaluating Potential Exposures to Ecological Receptors Due to Transport of Hydrophobic Organic Contaminants in Subsurface Systems. This technical paper recommends several ty...

Remedial investigation report on the Melton Valley watershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 3: Appendix C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The Melton Valley watershed presents a multifaceted management and decision-making challenge because of the very heterogeneous conditions that exist with respect to contaminant type, disposal unit age, mode of disposal, release mechanism, and potential risk-producing pathways. The investigation presented here has assembled relevant site data in the geographic context with the intent of enabling program managers and decision-makers to understand site conditions and evaluate the necessity, relative priority, and scope of potential remedial actions. The industrial and recreational exposure scenarios are used to provide a risk assessment reference context to evaluate levels of contamination in surface water, groundwater, soil, andmore » sediment within each subbasin of the Melton Valley watershed. All available analytical results for the media of interest that could be qualified for use in the risk assessment were screened to determine carcinogenic risk values and noncarcinogenic hazard indexes and to identify the chemicals of concern (COCs) for each evaluated media in each subbasin.« less

Health benefits and potential risks related to consumption of fish or fish oil.

PubMed

Sidhu, Kirpal S

2003-12-01

The nutritional benefits of fish consumption relate to the utilization of proteins of high biological value, as well as certain minerals and vitamins that fish provide. Fish or fish oil contains omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that appear to play several useful roles for human health. Conversely, some carcinogenic contaminants are also stored in the adipose tissue of fish. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential health benefits and risks related to the consumption of fish or fish oil. Health benefits related to the consumption of fish or omega-3 PUFAs were obtained by an extensive literature search. Potential health risks related to carcinogenic contaminants (e.g., dioxin, PCB, etc.) in fish were estimated using the U.S. EPA-approved cancer risk assessment guidelines. Potential health risk estimates were evaluated by comparing them with the acceptable excess risk level of 10(-6)-10(-4). Scientific data indicate that the consumption of fish or fish oil containing omega-3 PUFAs reduces the risk of coronary heart disease, decreases mild hypertension, and prevents certain cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. Risk estimates in humans for carcinogenic environmental contaminants in fish ranged from an excess risk level of 3x10(-6)-9x10(-4). These risk estimates appeared to meet the acceptable excess risk level criteria. Therefore, consumption of fish in accordance with the State of Michigan Fish Advisory Guidelines is safe and should be encouraged. The top 11 fish species [e.g., sardines, mackerel, herring (Atlantic and Pacific), lake trout, salmon (Chinook, Atlantic, and Sockeye), anchovy (European), sablefish, and bluefish] provide an adequate amount of omega-3 PUFAs (2.7-7.5g/meal) and appear to meet the nutritional recommendation of the American Heart Association.

Practices and attitudes towards radiation risk disclosure for computed tomography: survey of emergency medicine residency program directors.

PubMed

Marin, Jennifer R; Thomas, Karen E; Mills, Angela M; Broder, Joshua S; Boutis, Kathy

2017-10-01

The purposes of this study were to evaluate the frequency with which emergency physicians involved in residency leadership disclose potential malignancy risks from computed tomography (CT), assess comfort with these discussions, and evaluate factors influencing risk disclosure. We surveyed emergency medicine residency program directors and associate/assistant directors. Primary outcome was the proportion who "almost always" or "most of the time" discussed potential risks. Two hundred and seventy-four (50.6%) of 542 eligible physicians responded. There were 82.1% (95% CI 76.8%, 86.6%) who reported almost always or most of the time discussing potential risks for patients ≤18 years; proportions for adults 19-40, 41-65, and >65 years were 50.6% (95% CI 44.4, 56.7%), 20.7% (95% CI 16.0, 26.0%), and 5.2% (95% CI 2.9, 8.5%), respectively (test for trend, p < 0.001). The proportion reporting being "extremely" or "very" comfortable discussing risks was 57.1% (95% CI 51.1, 63.2%). Patient/family CT request that the physician felt was not indicated was of "very high" or "high" importance for driving risk discussions in 86.4% of respondents. For 75.5%, patient/family query about radiation risks was of "high" or "very high" importance. Among 57.4% of respondents, the patient being elderly and/or having a reduced life expectancy was of "high" or "very high" importance in the decision not to discuss risk. Emergency physicians involved in residency leadership report frequently disclosing potential malignancy risks from CT at frequencies inversely proportional to patient age. About half are comfortable with discussions, and many discussions are driven by patient requests. Opportunities exist to optimize and standardize emergency department CT radiation risk disclosure practices.

Evaluation of the Potential Optical Radiation Hazards with Led Lamps Intended for Home Use.

PubMed

James, Robert H; Landry, Robert J; Walker, Bennett N; Ilev, Ilko K

2017-01-01

The authors evaluated the potential for ocular damage from optical radiation emitted by Light Emitting Diode (LED) based lamps used for general illumination. Ten LED lamps were randomly selected off the shelf from a local home improvement store. The LEDs were behind diffusers in half of these lamps, while in the other half, the LEDs were clearly visible. In addition, a battery powered LED lantern having a LED source behind a diffuser was measured. The optical radiation emissions from two common incandescent lamps were also measured to compare the relative hazards of LED and incandescent lamps. All lamp samples were evaluated in accordance with procedures specified in the American National Standards Institute/Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (ANSI/IESNA) Standard RP-27.3. For comparison purposes, the lantern and 100 W incandescent lamps were also evaluated according to ANSI RP-27.1. These measurements indicate that no lamp evaluated poses any photobiological hazard, and therefore, all lamps fall in the RP-27.3 category of Exempt Group. However, when evaluated in accordance with RP-27.1, the 100 W incandescent lamp would be classified in Risk Group 1 (low risk), while the LED lantern would be classified in Risk Group 2 (moderate risk).

Physical Activity Assessment

Cancer.gov

Current evidence convincingly indicates that physical activity reduces the risk of colon and breast cancer. Physical activity may also reduce risk of prostate cancer. Scientists are also evaluating potential relationships between physical activity and other cancers.

Development of a lane change risk index using vehicle trajectory data.

PubMed

Park, Hyunjin; Oh, Cheol; Moon, Jaepil; Kim, Seongho

2018-01-01

Surrogate safety measures (SSMs) have been widely used to evaluate crash potential, which is fundamental for the development of effective safety countermeasures. Unlike existing SSMs, which are mainly focused on the evaluation of longitudinal vehicle maneuvering leading to rear-end crashes, this study proposes a new method for estimating crash risk while a subject vehicle changes lanes, referred to as the lane change risk index (LCRI). A novel feature of the proposed methodology is its incorporation of the amount of exposure time to potential crash and the expected crash severity level by applying a fault tree analysis (FTA) to the evaluation framework. Vehicle interactions between a subject vehicle and adjacent vehicles in the starting lane and the target lane are evaluated in terms of crash potential during lane change. Vehicle trajectory data obtained from a traffic stream, photographed using a drone flown over a freeway segment, is used to investigate the applicability of the proposed methodology. This study compares the characteristics of compulsory and discretionary lane changes observed in a work zone section and a general section of a freeway using the LCRI. It is expected that the outcome of this study will be valuable in evaluating the effectiveness of various traffic operations and control strategies in terms of lane change safety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Field evaluation of an avian risk assessment model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.

2006-01-01

We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic risk assessment method identified the potential for risk to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of risk to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based risk quotients should be interpreted with caution.

Neurophysiologic Evaluation of Early Cognitive Development in High-Risk Infants and Toddlers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

deRegnier, Raye-Ann

2005-01-01

New knowledge of the perceptual, discriminative, and memory capabilities of very young infants has opened the door to further evaluation of these abilities in infants who have risk factors for cognitive impairments. A neurophysiologic technique that has been very useful in this regard is the recording of event-related potentials (ERPs). The…

10 CFR 745.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 745.120 Evaluation and disposition of... will take into consideration the risks to the subjects, the adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge...

32 CFR 219.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) MISCELLANEOUS PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 219.120 Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals... consideration the risks to the subjects, the adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge gained or to be...

38 CFR 16.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 16.120 Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research... consideration the risks to the subjects, the adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge gained or to be...

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

[GIS Spatial Distribution and Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediments of Shallow Lakes in Jiangsu Province].

PubMed

Li, Ying-jie; Zhang, Lie-yu; Wu, Yi-wen; Li, Cao-le; Yang, Tian-xue; Tang, Jun

2016-04-15

To understand pollution of heavy metals in surface sediments of shallow lakes, surface sediments samples of 11 lakes in Jiangsu province were collected to determine the content of six heavy metals including As, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. GIS was used to analyze the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and geological accumulation index (Igeo), modified contamination index (mCd) pollution load index (PLI) and potential ecological risk index (RI) were used to evaluate heavy metal contamination in the sediments. The results showed that: in the lakes' surface sediments, the average content of As, Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni in multiples of soil background of Jiangsu province were 1.74-3.85, 0.65-2.66, 0.48-3.56, 0.43-1.52, 0.02-1.49 and 0.12-1.42. According to the evaluation results of Igeo and RI, As, which had high degree of enrichment and great potential ecological risk, was the main pollutant, followed by Cu, and pollution of the rest of heavy metals was relatively light. Combining the results of several evaluation methods, in surface sediments of Sanjiu Lake, Gaoyou Lake and Shaobo Lake, these heavy metals had the most serious pollution, the maximum pollution loading and moderate potential ecological risk; in surface sediments of Gehu Lake, Baima Lake and Hongze Lake, some regions were polluted by certain metals, the overall trend of pollution was aggravating, the pollution loading was large, and the potential ecological risk reached moderate; in the other 5 lakes, the risk of sediments polluted by heavy metals, as well as the pollution loading, was small, and the overall was not polluted.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors in the U.S. toxics release inventory: a comparison of the life cycle impact-based and risk-based assessment tools developed by U.S. EPA.

PubMed

Lim, Seong-Rin; Lam, Carl W; Schoenung, Julie M

2011-09-01

Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) employ different approaches to evaluate toxic impact potential for their own general applications. LCIA is often used to evaluate toxicity potentials for corporate environmental management and RA is often used to evaluate a risk score for environmental policy in government. This study evaluates the cancer, non-cancer, and ecotoxicity potentials and risk scores of chemicals and industry sectors in the United States on the basis of the LCIA- and RA-based tools developed by U.S. EPA, and compares the priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors identified with each method to examine whether the LCIA- and RA-based results lead to the same prioritization schemes. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) is applied as an LCIA-based screening approach with a focus on air and water emissions, and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) is applied in equivalent fashion as an RA-based screening approach. The U.S. Toxic Release Inventory is used as the dataset for this analysis, because of its general applicability to a comprehensive list of chemical substances and industry sectors. Overall, the TRACI and RSEI results do not agree with each other in part due to the unavailability of characterization factors and toxic scores for select substances, but primarily because of their different evaluation approaches. Therefore, TRACI and RSEI should be used together both to support a more comprehensive and robust approach to screening of chemicals for environmental management and policy and to highlight substances that are found to be of concern from both perspectives. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

2018-01-01

Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

Exposure assessment and risk management of engineered nanoparticles: Investigation in semiconductor wafer processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepard, Michele N.

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are currently used in hundreds of commercial products and industrial processes, with more applications being investigated. Nanomaterials have unique properties that differ from bulk materials. While these properties may enable technological advancements, the potential risks of ENMs to people and the environment are not yet fully understood. Certain low solubility nanoparticles are more toxic than their bulk material, such that existing occupational exposure limits may not be sufficiently protective for workers. Risk assessments are currently challenging due to gaps in data on the numerous emerging materials and applications as well as method uncertainties and limitations. Chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) processes with engineered nanoparticle abrasives are used for research and commercial manufacturing applications in the semiconductor and related industries. Despite growing use, no published studies addressed occupational exposures to nanoparticles associated with CMP or risk assessment and management practices for these scenarios. Additional studies are needed to evaluate potential sources of workplace exposure or emission, as well as to help test and refine assessment methods. This research was conducted to: identify the lifecycle stages and potential exposure sources for ENMs in CMP processes; characterize worker exposure; determine recommended engineering controls and compare risk assessment models. The study included workplace air and surface sampling and an evaluation of qualitative risk banding approaches. Exposure assessment results indicated the potential for worker contact with ENMs on workplace surfaces but did not identify nanoparticles readily dispersed in air during work tasks. Some increases in respirable particle concentrations were identified, but not consistently. Measured aerosol concentrations by number and mass were well below current reference values for poorly soluble low toxicity nanoparticles. From application and evaluation of qualitative risk assessment approaches, differences in control banding models and results were identified, although output generally agreed with conclusions from air sampling as to whether an upgrade in site engineering controls was recommended. This research helped to improve understanding of potential worker exposures to ENMs in CMP processes, as well as the methods for risk assessment and management of metal oxide nanoparticles in occupational environments.

INTERPRETING SPONTANEOUS RENAL LESIONS IN SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Interpreting Spontaneous Renal Lesions in Safety and Risk Assessment
Douglas C. Wolf, D.V.M., Ph.D.

Introduction

Risk assessment is a process whereby the potential adverse health effects from exposure to a xenobiotic are predicted after evaluation of the availab...

Hearing Screening of High-Risk Newborns with Brainstem Auditory Evoked Potentials: A Follow-Up Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shannon, Dorothy A.; And Others

1984-01-01

The brainstem auditory evoked potential (BAEP) was evaluated as a hearing screening test in 168 high-risk newborns. The BAEP was found to be a sensitive procedure for the early identification of hearing-impaired newborns. However, the yield of significant hearing abnormalities was less than predicted in other studies using BAEP. (Author/CL)

Novel Biomarkers for Predicting Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Diabetes.

PubMed

Retnakaran, Ravi

2018-05-01

It is generally acknowledged that patients with diabetes comprise a high-risk population for the development of cardiovascular disease. However, it is perhaps less well recognized that there actually exists considerable heterogeneity in vascular risk within this patient population, with a sizable subset of individuals seemingly at low risk for major cardiovascular events despite the presence of diabetes. Because traditional clinical risk calculators have shown wide variability in their performance in the setting of diabetes, there exists a need for additional risk predictors in this patient population. In this context, there has been considerable interest in the potential utility of circulating biomarkers as clinical tools that might facilitate risk stratification and thereby guide therapeutic and preventative decision-making. Coupled with the current era of dedicated cardiovascular outcome trials in type 2 diabetes, this interest has spawned a growing literature of recent studies that evaluated potential biomarkers. To date, these studies have identified N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponins, and growth differentiation factor-15 as cardiovascular biomarkers of particular potential in patients with diabetes. Furthermore, recognizing the potential benefit of collective consideration of different biomarkers reflecting distinct pathophysiologic processes that might contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease, there is emerging emphasis on the evaluation of combinations of biomarkers for optimal risk prediction. Although not currently ready for clinical practice, this rapidly-growing topic of biomarker research might ultimately facilitate the goal of individualized risk stratification and thereby enable truly personalized management of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AllergenOnline: A peer-reviewed, curated allergen database to assess novel food proteins for potential cross-reactivity.

PubMed

Goodman, Richard E; Ebisawa, Motohiro; Ferreira, Fatima; Sampson, Hugh A; van Ree, Ronald; Vieths, Stefan; Baumert, Joseph L; Bohle, Barbara; Lalithambika, Sreedevi; Wise, John; Taylor, Steve L

2016-05-01

Increasingly regulators are demanding evaluation of potential allergenicity of foods prior to marketing. Primary risks are the transfer of allergens or potentially cross-reactive proteins into new foods. AllergenOnline was developed in 2005 as a peer-reviewed bioinformatics platform to evaluate risks of new dietary proteins in genetically modified organisms (GMO) and novel foods. The process used to identify suspected allergens and evaluate the evidence of allergenicity was refined between 2010 and 2015. Candidate proteins are identified from the NCBI database using keyword searches, the WHO/IUIS nomenclature database and peer reviewed publications. Criteria to classify proteins as allergens are described. Characteristics of the protein, the source and human subjects, test methods and results are evaluated by our expert panel and archived. Food, inhalant, salivary, venom, and contact allergens are included. Users access allergen sequences through links to the NCBI database and relevant references are listed online. Version 16 includes 1956 sequences from 778 taxonomic-protein groups that are accepted with evidence of allergic serum IgE-binding and/or biological activity. AllergenOnline provides a useful peer-reviewed tool for identifying the primary potential risks of allergy for GMOs and novel foods based on criteria described by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (2003). © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Build Resilience at Your Utility

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

BIOTECHNOLOGY/ECORISK

EPA Science Inventory

This research effort is designed to provide the risk assessment community with modern genetic tools for evaluating long-term risks of genetically modified (GM) crops. Molecular population genetic data can potentially reveal information about long-term trends in both pest populat...

Brownfields and health risks--air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment at landfill redevelopment sites.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph; Eget, Steven

2006-07-01

Redevelopment of landfill sites in the New Jersey-New York metropolitan area for recreational (golf courses), commercial, and even residential purposes seems to be gaining acceptance among municipal planners and developers. Landfill gas generation, which includes methane and potentially toxic nonmethane compounds usually continues long after closure of the landfill exercise phase. It is therefore prudent to evaluate potential health risks associated with exposure to gas emissions before redevelopment of the landfill sites as recreational, commercial, and, especially, residential properties. Unacceptably high health risks would call for risk management measures such as limiting the development to commercial/recreational rather than residential uses, stringent gas control mechanisms, interior air filtration, etc. A methodology is presented for applying existing models to estimate residual landfill hazardous compounds emissions and to quantify associated health risks. Besides the toxic gas constituents of landfill emissions, other risk-related issues concerning buried waste, landfill leachate, and explosive gases were qualitatively evaluated. Five contiguously located landfill sites in New Jersey intended for residential and recreational redevelopment were used to exemplify the approach.

NanoRiskCat: a conceptual tool for categorization and communication of exposure potentials and hazards of nanomaterials in consumer products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Steffen Foss; Jensen, Keld Alstrup; Baun, Anders

2014-01-01

The literature on nano(eco)toxicology is growing rapidly and has become increasingly difficult to interpret. We have developed a systematic tool called NanoRiskCat that can support companies and regulators in their first-tier assessment and communication on what they know about the hazard and exposure potential of consumer products containing engineered nanomaterials. The final outcome of NanoRiskCat is communicated in the form of a short-title describing the intended use and five colored dots. The first three dots refer to the qualitative exposure potential for professional end-users, consumers and the environment, whereas the last two refers to the hazard potential for humans and the environment. Each dot can be assigned one of four different colors, i.e. red, yellow, green, and gray indicating high, medium, low, and unknown, respectively. In this paper, we first introduce the criteria used to evaluate the exposure potential and the human and environmental hazards of specific uses of the nanoproduct. We then apply NanoRiskCat to eight different nanoproducts. The human and environmental exposure potential was found to be high (i.e., red) for many of the products due to direct application on skin and subsequent environmental release. In the NanoRiskCat evaluation, many of the nanomaterials achieve a red human and environmental hazard profile as there is compelling in vivo evidence to associate them with irreversible effects, e.g., carcinogenicity, respiratory, and cardiovascular effects, etc., in laboratory animals. A significant strength of NanoRiskCat is that it can be used even in cases where lack of data is prominent.

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, H; Gorson, R O; Lassen, M

1983-05-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life.

Using FEMA FIS, HAZUS and WMOST to Evaluate Effectiveness of GI in Moderating Flood-Related Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to accurately assess flood-related risks and costs as well as the effectiveness of green infrastructure on moderating those risks is critical for both emergency management and long-term planning. Potential flooding depths, land use and building conditions are needed ...

Evaluation of soil saturation, soil chemistry, and early spring soil and air temperatures as risk factors in yellow-cedar decline.

Treesearch

D.V. D' Amore; P.E. Hennon

2006-01-01

Yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis (D. Don) Oerst.) is a valuable tree species that is experiencing a widespread decline and mortality in southeast Alaska. This study evaluated the relative importance of several potential risk factors associated with yellow-cedar decline: soil saturation, soil aluminum (Al) toxicity or calcium (Ca) deficiency...

Evaluating the Feasibility, Effectiveness and Acceptability of an Active Play Intervention for Disadvantaged Preschool Children: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stagnitti, Karen; Malakellis, Mary; Kershaw, Beth; Hoare, Majella; Kenna, Rachel; de Silva-Sanigorski, Andrea

2011-01-01

Australian children from disadvantaged families are at increased risk of delays in acquiring fundamental movement skills, with physical inactivity and increased risk of the potential consequences of obesity. The aims of this pilot study were to: 1) assess the fundamental movement skills of disadvantaged children; 2) evaluate the feasibility and…

45 CFR 690.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 690.120 Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research... risks to the subjects, the adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge gained or to be gained. (b) On the...

Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

An effective risk assessment system is needed to address the threat posed by an active or passive insider who, acting alone or in collusion, could attempt diversion or theft of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) is a self-assessment or inspection tool utilizing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology to calculate the system effectiveness of a nuclear facility's material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system. The MSET process is divided into four distinct and separate parts: (1) Completion of the questionnaire that assembles information about the operations of every aspect of the MPC&A system; (2)more » Conversion of questionnaire data into numeric values associated with risk; (3) Analysis of the numeric data utilizing the MPC&A fault tree and the SAPHIRE computer software; and (4) Self-assessment using the MSET reports to perform the effectiveness evaluation of the facility's MPC&A system. The process should lead to confirmation that mitigating features of the system effectively minimize the threat, or it could lead to the conclusion that system improvements or upgrades are necessary to achieve acceptable protection against the threat. If the need for system improvements or upgrades is indicated when the system is analyzed, MSET provides the capability to evaluate potential or actual system improvements or upgrades. A facility's MC&A system can be evaluated at a point in time. The system can be reevaluated after upgrades are implemented or after other system changes occur. The total system or specific subareas within the system can be evaluated. Areas of potential system improvement can be assessed to determine where the most beneficial and cost-effective improvements should be made. Analyses of risk importance factors show that sustainability is essential for optimal performance and reveals where performance degradation has the greatest impact on total system risk. The risk importance factors show the amount of risk reduction achievable with potential upgrades and the amount of risk reduction achieved after upgrades are completed. Applying the risk assessment tool gives support to budget prioritization by showing where budget support levels must be sustained for MC&A functions most important to risk. Results of the risk assessment are also useful in supporting funding justifications for system improvements that significantly reduce system risk. The functional model, the system risk assessment tool, and the facility evaluation questionnaire are valuable educational tools for MPC&A personnel. These educational tools provide a framework for ongoing dialogue between organizations regarding the design, development, implementation, operation, assessment, and sustainability of MPC&A systems. An organization considering the use of MSET as an analytical tool for evaluating the effectiveness of its MPC&A system will benefit from conducting a complete MSET exercise at an existing nuclear facility.« less

Risk assessment and rehabilitation potential of a millennium city dumpsite in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ojuri, O O; Ayodele, F O; Oluwatuyi, O E

2018-06-01

Management of the ever-increasing generated solid waste had been a difficulty for state governments in Nigeria. The high costs connected to this waste management which had encumbered the state budget, ignorance or lack of understanding of resourceful waste management and insensitivity to environmental concerns may have led to partial neglect of this sector. This research paper is aimed at evaluating the rehabilitation potential and the risk level of Igbatoro dumpsite, an Ondo state-managed waste dumpsite which predominantly receives the waste of Akure and its environs. In determining rehabilitation/reconstruction potentials and assessing the risk of the dumpsite, an Integrated Risk Based Approach (IRBA) was considered. The Risk Index (RI) was calculated from the addition of the sensitivity index output with the attribute weightage of the twenty-seven (27) parameters studied. A total risk index of 571.58 was obtained for Igbatoro dumpsite indicating moderate hazard evaluation. Questionnaires distributed to dwellers around the dumpsite also showed that 83.6% of those interviewed agreed that the present management of the dumpsite is poor while 81.8% supported rehabilitation of the dumpsite. Hence, reconstruction of the Igbatoro dumpsite to an endurable and controlled landfill is hereby recommended. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlomore » simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.« less

Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

PubMed

Yasnoff, William A

2016-01-01

A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

1989-01-01

Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.

A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

[Distribution and risk assessment of mercury species in soil of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir].

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Hong; Wang, Ding-Yong; Sun, Rong-Guo; Zhang, Jin-Yang

2014-03-01

To investigate pollution level and ecological risk of mercury in soils of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, 192 surface soil samples from 14 counties (districts) in Chongqing were obtained. Concentrations of THg and Hg species, bioavailable Hg were analyzed and discussed. Geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) and Håkanson potential ecological risk index (E(r)) were applied to assess the pollution status and potential ecological risk of THg and Hg species, respectively. The results showed that significant differences in the concentration of THg were found in soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The THg concentration ranged from 22.4 to 393.5 microg x kg(-1), with an average of (84.2 +/- 54.3) microg x kg(-1). 76.6% of the samples' THg content was higher than the soil background value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. The percentage of five mercury species (water-soluble Hg, HCl-soluble Hg, KOH-soluble Hg, H2O2-soluble Hg, residue Hg) in soils were 4.1%, 15.5%, 18.3%, 10.9%, 51.3%, respectively. The average concentrations of bioavailable mercury varied between 19.7-36.6 microg x kg(-1), and the percentage of bioavailable Hg was 22.1%-51.6% of THg. According to the geoaccumulation index, the soils were lightly polluted by Hg. Håkanson single potential ecological risk index evaluation showed that Hg species had a low potential ecological risk, moreover, soils of water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir were at low ecological risk levels as evaluated by bioavailable Hg. While, the assessment results based on THg of soils was much higher than that based on the Hg species. Two methods of evaluation showed that the I(geo) and E(r) values calculated based on the Hg species better reflected the actual pollution levels of soils and its hazard to aquatic organisms.

Potential for Incorporation of Genetic Polymorphism Data in Human Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This overview summarizes several EPA assessment publications evaluating the potential impact of genetic polymorphisms in ten metabolizing enzymes on the variability in enzyme function across ethnically diverse populations.

Wildland fire potential: A tool for assessing wildfire risk and fuels management needs

Treesearch

Greg Dillon; James Menakis; Frank Fay

2015-01-01

Federal wildfire managers often want to know, over large landscapes, where wildfires are likely to occur and how intense they may be. To meet this need we developed a map that we call wildland fire potential (WFP) - a raster geospatial product that can help to inform evaluations of wildfire risk or prioritization of fuels management needs across very large spatial...

A risk assessment of direct and indirect exposure to emissions from a proposed hazardous waste incinerator in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hallinger, K.; Huggins, A.; Warner, L.

1995-12-31

An Indirect Exposure Assessment (IEA) was conducted, under USEPA`s RCRA Combustion Strategy, as part of the Part B permitting process for a proposed hazardous waste incinerator. The IEA involved identification of constituents of concern, emissions estimations, air dispersion and deposition modeling, evaluation of site-specific exposure pathways/scenarios, and food chain modeling in order to evaluate potential human health and environmental risks. The COMPDEP model was used to determine ambient ground level concentrations and dry and wet deposition rates of constituents of concern. The air modeling results were input into 50th percentile (Central) and 95th percentile (High-End) exposure scenarios which evaluated directmore » exposure via inhalation, dermal contact, and soil ingestion pathways, and indirect exposure through the food chain. The indirect pathway analysis considered the accumulation of constituents in plants and animals used as food sources by local inhabitants. Local food consumption data obtained from the Puerto Rico USDA were combined with realistic present-day and future-use exposure scenarios such as residential use, pineapple farming, and subsistence farming to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of risk, Overall risk was calculated using constituent doses and toxicity factors associated with the various routes of exposure. Risk values for each exposure pathway were summed to determine total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazard to exposed individuals. A population risk assessment was also conducted in order to assess potential risks to the population surrounding the facility. Results of the assessment indicated no acute effects from constituents of concern, and a high-end excess lifetime cancer risk of approximately 6 in a million with dioxins (as 2,3,7,8-TCDD) and arsenic dominating the risk estimate.« less

Decision tool for clients with medical issues: a framework for identifying driving risk and potential to return to driving.

PubMed

Dickerson, Anne E; Bédard, Michel

2014-04-01

This paper offers occupational therapy generalists and specialists a new framework by which to consider clinical evaluation data and an older adult's driving risk and potential to resume this previously learned skill. Based on Michon's model describing the hierarchy of driving levels, clinical questions identify the factors that may affect a client's fitness to drive. The first part is intended to support clinical judgment of whether a client needs a driving evaluation by a driver rehabilitation specialist. The second part offers a framework to organize clinical data that are already known and determine what other evaluation information is justified and necessary to make a driving recommendation. Methods and rational for use are discussed.

Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Treesearch

David M Cooley; Chrsitopher S Galik; Thomas P Holmes; Carolyn Kousky; Roger M Cooke

2011-01-01

Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect...

The relationship between health risks and health and productivity costs among employees at Pepsi Bottling Group.

PubMed

Henke, Rachel M; Carls, Ginger S; Short, Meghan E; Pei, Xiaofei; Wang, Shaohung; Moley, Susan; Sullivan, Mark; Goetzel, Ron Z

2010-05-01

To evaluate relationships between modifiable health risks and costs and measure potential cost savings from risk reduction programs. Health risk information from active Pepsi Bottling Group employees who completed health risk assessments between 2004 and 2006 (N = 11,217) were linked to medical care, workers' compensation, and short-term disability cost data. Ten health risks were examined. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate costs associated with having high risk, holding demographics, and other risks constant. Potential savings from risk reduction were estimated. High risk for weight, blood pressure, glucose, and cholesterol had the greatest impact on total costs. A one-percentage point annual reduction in the health risks assessed would yield annual per capita savings of $83.02 to $103.39. Targeted programs that address modifiable health risks are expected to produce substantial cost reductions in multiple benefit categories.

Probabilistic evaluation of damage potential in earthquake-induced liquefaction in a 3-D soil deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halder, A.; Miller, F. J.

1982-03-01

A probabilistic model to evaluate the risk of liquefaction at a site and to limit or eliminate damage during earthquake induced liquefaction is proposed. The model is extended to consider three dimensional nonhomogeneous soil properties. The parameters relevant to the liquefaction phenomenon are identified, including: (1) soil parameters; (2) parameters required to consider laboratory test and sampling effects; and (3) loading parameters. The fundamentals of risk based design concepts pertient to liquefaction are reviewed. A detailed statistical evaluation of the soil parameters in the proposed liquefaction model is provided and the uncertainty associated with the estimation of in situ relative density is evaluated for both direct and indirect methods. It is found that the liquefaction potential the uncertainties in the load parameters could be higher than those in the resistance parameters.

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less

Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of fine-tuned convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of FFDMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Mendel, Kayla R.; Lee, John H.; Lan, Li; Giger, Maryellen L.

2018-02-01

We evaluated the potential of deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) fine-tuned on full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images. This study included 456 clinical FFDM cases from two high-risk datasets: BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers (53 cases) and unilateral cancer patients (75 cases), and a low-risk dataset as the control group (328 cases). All FFDM images (12-bit quantization and 100 micron pixel) were acquired with a GE Senographe 2000D system and were retrospectively collected under an IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant protocol. Regions of interest of 256x256 pixels were selected from the central breast region behind the nipple in the craniocaudal projection. VGG19 pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset was used to classify the images either as high-risk or as low-risk subjects. The last fully-connected layer of pre-trained VGG19 was fine-tuned on FFDM images for breast cancer risk assessment. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the task of distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk subjects. AUC values of 0.84 (SE=0.05) and 0.72 (SE=0.06) were obtained in the task of distinguishing between the BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers and low-risk women and between unilateral cancer patients and low-risk women, respectively. Deep learning with CNNs appears to be able to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from FFDMs which are relevant to the task of distinguishing between cancer risk populations, and therefore has potential to aid clinicians in assessing mammographic parenchymal patterns for cancer risk assessment.

Methodological and Design Considerations in Evaluating the Impact of Prevention Programs on Violence and Related Health Outcomes.

PubMed

Massetti, Greta M; Simon, Thomas R; Smith, Deborah Gorman

2016-10-01

Drawing on research that has identified specific predictors and trajectories of risk for violence and related negative outcomes, a multitude of small- and large-scale preventive interventions for specific risk behaviors have been developed, implemented, and evaluated. One of the principal challenges of these approaches is that a number of separate problem-specific programs targeting different risk areas have emerged. However, as many negative health behaviors such as substance abuse and violence share a multitude of risk factors, many programs target identical risk factors. There are opportunities to understand whether evidence-based programs can be leveraged for potential effects across a spectrum of outcomes and over time. Some recent work has documented longitudinal effects of evidence-based interventions on generalized outcomes. This work has potential for advancing our understanding of the effectiveness of promising and evidence-based prevention strategies. However, conducting longitudinal follow-up of established interventions presents a number of methodological and design challenges. To answer some of these questions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a panel of multidisciplinary experts to discuss opportunities to take advantage of evaluations of early prevention programs and evaluating multiple long-term outcomes. This special section of the journal Prevention Science includes a series of papers that begin to address the relevant considerations for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research. This collection of papers is intended to inform our understanding of the challenges and strategies for conducting longitudinal follow-up evaluation research that could be used to drive future research endeavors.

A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources.

PubMed

Veiguela, Miguel; Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando; Roqueñi, Nieves; Loredo, Jorge

2016-11-15

The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's 'Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)' developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

PubMed

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Development and Evaluation of Ergonomic Interventions for Bucket Handling on Farms

PubMed Central

Fathallah, Fadi A.; Tang, Steven C.H.; Waters, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to introduce and evaluate two interventions, Ergo Bucket Carrier (EBC) and Easy Lift (EL), for youths (and adults) to handle water/feed buckets on farms. Background The physical activities of both adult and youth farm workers contribute to the development of low-back disorders (LBDs). Many of the activities youths perform on farms are associated with increased LBD risk, particularly, the handling of water and feed buckets. Methods Seventeen adult and youth participants (10 males and seven females) participated in this study. To assess the risk of LBDs, the participants were instrumented with a three-dimensional spinal electrogoniometer while lifting, carrying, and dumping water buckets using traditional method and the two interventions. Results For both the adult and youth groups, the results showed that the two interventions significantly decrease the magnitudes of LBD risk in many of the tasks evaluated. Overall, the use of the EBC resulted in a 41% reduction in the level of LBD risk for the carrying task, and a reduction of 69% for the dumping task. Using the EL, on the other hand, is especially effective for lifting tasks (55% reduction in LBD risk). Results of the subjective response were consistent with the objective evaluations. Conclusion This study demonstrated the potential for ergonomic interventions in reducing LBD risk during the common farming task of bucket handling. Application Potential application of this study includes the introduction of the EBC and EL in family farms to reduce the LBD risk among youth and adult farmers. PMID:26994024

Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet--an international collaborative clinical trials network.

PubMed

Skyler, Jay S; Greenbaum, Carla J; Lachin, John M; Leschek, Ellen; Rafkin-Mervis, Lisa; Savage, Peter; Spain, Lisa

2008-12-01

Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet is an international consortium of clinical research centers aimed at the prevention or delay of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The fundamental goal of TrialNet is to counter the T1D disease process by immune modulation and/or enhancement of beta cell proliferation and regeneration. To achieve this goal, TrialNet researchers are working to better understand the natural history of the disease, to identify persons at risk, and to clinically evaluate novel therapies that balance potential risks and benefits. The particular focus is on studies of preventive measures. In addition, TrialNet evaluates therapies in individuals with newly diagnosed T1D with preserved beta cell function to help determine the risk/benefit profile and gain an initial assessment of potential efficacy in preservation of beta cell function, so that promising agents can be studied in prevention trials. In addition, TrialNet evaluates methodologies that enhance the conduct of its clinical trials, which includes tests of outcome assessment methodology, the evaluation of surrogate markers, and mechanistic studies laying the foundation for future clinical trials.

Preparticipation Evaluation for Climbing Sports.

PubMed

Campbell, Aaron D; Davis, Christopher; Paterson, Ryan; Cushing, Tracy A; Ng, Pearlly; Peterson, Charles S; Sedgwick, Peter E; McIntosh, Scott E

2015-09-01

Climbing is a popular wilderness sport among a wide variety of professional athletes and amateur enthusiasts, and many styles are performed across many environments. Potential risks confront climbers, including personal health or exacerbation of a chronic condition, in addition to climbing-specific risks or injuries. Although it is not common to perform a preparticipation evaluation (PPE) for climbing, a climber or a guide agency may request such an evaluation before participation. Formats from traditional sports PPEs can be drawn upon, but often do not directly apply. The purpose of this article was to incorporate findings from expert opinion from professional societies in wilderness medicine and in sports medicine, with findings from the literature of both climbing epidemiology and traditional sports PPEs, into a general PPE that would be sufficient for the broad sport of climbing. The emphasis is on low altitude climbing, and an overview of different climbing styles is included. Knowledge of climbing morbidity and mortality, and a standardized approach to the PPE that involves adequate history taking and counseling have the potential for achieving risk reduction and will facilitate further study on the evaluation of the efficacy of PPEs.

Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience of Adolescent Sexual Risk and Alcohol Use

PubMed Central

Ryman, Sephira G.; Gillman, Arielle S.; Weiland, Barbara J.; Thayer, Rachel E.; Bryan, Angela D.

2018-01-01

Human adolescents engage in very high rates of unprotected sex. This behavior has a high potential for unintended, serious, and sustained health consequences including HIV/AIDS. Despite these serious health consequences, we know little about the neural and cognitive factors that influence adolescents’ decision-making around sex, and their potential overlap with behaviorally co-occurring risk behaviors, including alcohol use. Thus, in this review, we evaluate the developmental neuroscience of sexual risk and alcohol use for human adolescents with an eye to relevant prevention and intervention implications. PMID:26290051

High resolution tsunami modelling for the evaluation of potential risk areas in Setúbal (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, J.; Silva, A.; Leitão, P.

2011-08-01

The use of high resolution hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the potential effects of tsunami events can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas. Moreover, the consideration of complementary data such as the type of buildings, location of priority equipment, type of roads, enables mapping of the most vulnerable zones, computing of the expected damage on man-made structures, constrain of the definition of rescue areas and escape routes, adaptation of emergency plans and proper evaluation of the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipment. Such an approach was used to evaluate the specific risks associated with a potential occurrence of a tsunami event in the region of Setúbal (Portugal), which was one of the areas most seriously affected by the 1755 tsunami. In order to perform an evaluation of the hazard associated with the occurrence of a similar event, high resolution wave propagation simulations were performed considering different potential earthquake sources with different magnitudes. Based on these simulations, detailed inundation maps associated with the different events were produced. These results were combined with the available information on the vulnerability of the local infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, priority buildings) in order to impose restrictions in the production of high-scale potential damage maps, escape routes and emergency routes maps.

Carbon Dioxide as a Fire Suppressant: Examining the Risks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the statutory authority to set phase-out dates for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and to evaluate potential risks posed by proposed ODS substitutes.

Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Kevin; Martinez, Siera; Flynn-Evans, Erin

2017-01-01

Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

Late biological effects of heavy charged particles: Cataracts, vascular injury and life shortening in mice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainsworth, E. J.; Jose, J. G.; Barker, M. E.; Alpen, E. L.

1980-07-01

Risks associated with extended habitation in a space environment, particularly hazards to space workers that might result from exposure to high energy heavy ion particles (HZE), were studied. Biological effects of HZE were investigated in mice to assess their potential adverse health hazards. The potential effects of HZE particles on the crystalline lens of the eye and the carcinogenic effects and blood vessel (vascular) damage from radiation were evaluated by a risk assessment. Animal experiments to evaluate dose response relationships for tumor induction/promotion and for vascular injury were introduced. Cataract productions and preliminary results on cacinogenic and vascular effects are presented for perspective.

Late biological effects of heavy charged particles: Cataracts, vascular injury and life shortening in mice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ainsworth, E. J.; Jose, J. G.; Barker, M. E.; Alpen, E. L.

1980-01-01

Risks associated with extended habitation in a space environment, particularly hazards to space workers that might result from exposure to high energy heavy ion particles (HZE), were studied. Biological effects of HZE were investigated in mice to assess their potential adverse health hazards. The potential effects of HZE particles on the crystalline lens of the eye and the carcinogenic effects and blood vessel (vascular) damage from radiation were evaluated by a risk assessment. Animal experiments to evaluate dose response relationships for tumor induction/promotion and for vascular injury were introduced. Cataract productions and preliminary results on cacinogenic and vascular effects are presented for perspective.

Delineating risk zones and evaluation of shelter centres for flood disaster management along the Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Isahak, Anizan; Siwar, Chamhuri; Ismail, Shaharuddin M.; Hanafi, Zulkifli; Zainuddin, Mohd S.

2018-01-01

Shelter centres are important locations to safeguard people from helpless situations and are an integral part of disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly for flood DRR. The establishment of shelter centres, and their design based on scientific assessment, is crucial. Yet, they are very much related to the geographic location, socio-economic conditions and the livelihoods of the affected communities. However, many parts of the developing world are still lagging behind in ensuring such scientific design. Considering the flood disaster in 2014 that affected the residents living along the Pahang River Basin, in this study we delineate the communities at risk and evaluate the existing shelter centres to determine how they reduce people’s vulnerability to the risks associated with rural and urban landscapes. We used spatial analysis tools to delineate risk zones and to evaluate existing evacuation systems. A flood disaster risk map was produced to determine which communities are living with risks. Subsequently, the distribution of shelter centres examined whether they are able to support people living at the flood risk zones. These centres were also evaluated using a set of international guidelines for effective disaster shelters. This reveals that the number of shelter centres is not adequate. The designation and designing of shelter centres are not being done scientifically. The maps produced here have a lot of potential to support disaster management decisions, in particular site selection and the prioritisation of centres. The study concludes with a set of guidelines and recommendations for structural and non-structural measures, such as alternative livelihoods and the potential of ecotourism, which may improve the resilience among flood-affected communities; and the decision-making process for the overall flood DRR initiatives.

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease in Italy: vector competence of indigenous Culicoides species and spatial multicriteria evaluation of vulnerability.

PubMed

Federici, Valentina; Ippoliti, Carla; Catalani, Monica; Di Provvido, Andrea; Santilli, Adriana; Quaglia, Michela; Mancini, Giuseppe; Di Nicola, Francesca; Di Gennaro, Annapia; Leone, Alessandra; Teodori, Liana; Conte, Annamaria; Savini, Giovanni

2016-09-30

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) is an infectious non-contagious viral disease transmitted by Culicoides, which affects wild and domestic ruminants. The disease has never been reported in Europe, however recently outbreaks of EHD occurred in the Mediterranean Basin. Consequently, the risk that Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) might spread in Italy cannot be ignored. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of EHDV transmission in Italy, in case of introduction, through indigenous potential vectors. In Italy, the most spread and abundant Culicoides species associated to livestock are Culicoides imicola and the members of the Obsoletus complex. Culicoides imicola is a competent vector of EHDV, whereas the vector status of the Obsoletus complex has not been assessed yet. Thus, its oral susceptibility to EHDV was here preliminary evaluated. To evaluate the risk of EHDV transmission a geographical information system-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation approach was adopted. Distribution of vector species and host density were used as predictors of potential suitable areas for EHDV transmission, in case of introduction in Italy. This study demonstrates that the whole peninsula is suitable for the disease, given the distribution and abundance of hosts and the competence of possible indigenous vectors.

Event-related potentials show taste and risk effects on food evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Qingguo; Wang, Cuicui; Wu, Yifan; Wang, Xiaoyi

2014-07-09

Tastes and claims about unhealthy food are important factors that affect consumption. This study investigated the correlation of the event-related potential (ERP) of the evaluation of processing of food information with the task of positive judgment. Given the information on possible diseases that arise with food consumption, sweet-tasting food elicited more conflict than salty food, and this conflict was reflected by a negative ERP component at 250-500 ms (N400). Moreover, the late positive wave at 500-800 ms that was evoked by presentation of food with the names of chronic diseases that could arise from the consumption of such food was larger than that evoked when acute diseases were presented. Sweet-tasting food caused a more intense conflict with disease-related risk than salty food, and chronic diseases aroused a stronger emotional fear than acute diseases. These findings provide new insights into the N400 component and the neurocognitive processes of evaluating food combined with taste and risk information.

Evaluating life-safety risk of fieldwork at New Zealand's active volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, Natalia; Jolly, Gill; Taig, Tony; Webb, Terry

2014-05-01

Volcano observatories monitor active or potentially active volcanoes. Although the number and scope of remote monitoring instruments and methods continues to grow, in-person field data collection is still required for comprehensive monitoring. Fieldwork anywhere, and especially in mountainous areas, contains an element of risk. However, on volcanoes with signs of unrest, there is an additional risk of volcanic activity escalating while on site, with potentially lethal consequences. As an employer, a volcano observatory is morally and sometimes legally obligated to take reasonable measures to ensure staff safety and to minimise occupational risk. Here we present how GNS Science evaluates life-safety risk for volcanologists engaged in fieldwork on New Zealand volcanoes with signs of volcanic unrest. Our method includes several key elements: (1) an expert elicitation for how likely an eruption is within a given time frame, (2) quantification of, based on historical data when possible, given a small, moderate, or large eruption, the likelihood of exposure to near-vent processes, ballistics, or surge at various distances from the vent, and (3) estimate of fatality rate given exposure to these volcanic hazards. The final product quantifies hourly fatality risk at various distances from a volcanic vent; various thresholds of risk (for example, zones with more than 10-5 hourly fatality risk) trigger different levels of required approval to undertake work. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective guidance for go/no go decisions for volcanic monitoring.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leetaru, Hannes

This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3,more » which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO{sub 2} plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO{sub 2}-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Leetaru, Hannes

This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, whichmore » describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i.e., persistently porous and permeable) injection depths within the overall formation. Less direct implications include the vertical position of the Potosi within the rock column and the absence of a laterally extensive shale caprock immediately overlying the Potosi. Based on modeling work done partly in association with this risk report, risks that should also be evaluated include the ability of available methods to predict and track the development of a CO2 plume as it migrates away from the injection point(s). The geologic and hydrodynamic uncertainties present risks that are compounded at the stage of acquiring necessary drilling and injection permits. It is anticipated that, in the future, a regional geologic study or CO2-emitter request may identify a small specific area as a prospective CCS project site. At that point, the FEPs lists provided in this report should be evaluated by experts for their relative levels of risk. A procedure for this evaluation is provided. The higher-risk FEPs should then be used to write project-specific scenarios that may themselves be evaluated for risk. Then, actions to reduce and to manage risk can be described and undertaken. The FEPs lists provided as Appendix 2 should not be considered complete, as potentially the most important risks are ones that have not yet been thought of. But these lists are intended to include the most important risk elements pertinent to a Potosi-target CCS project, and they provide a good starting point for diligent risk identification, evaluation, and management.« less

Potential ecological and human health risks of heavy metals in surface soils associated with iron ore mining in Pahang, Malaysia.

PubMed

Diami, Siti Merryan; Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Madzin, Zafira

2016-10-01

The composition of heavy metals (and metalloid) in surface soils of iron ore mine-impacted areas has been evaluated of their potential ecological and human health risks. The mining areas included seven selected locations in the vicinity of active and abandoned iron ore-mining sites in Pahang, Malaysia. Heavy metals such as Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Co, Pb, Cr, Ni, and Cd and metalloid As were present in the mining soils of the studied area, while Cu was found exceeding the soil guideline value at all sampling locations. However, the assessment of the potential ecological risk index (RI) indicated low ecological risk (RI between 44 and 128) with respect to Cd, Pb, Cu, As, Zn, Co, and Ni in the surface soils. Contributions of potential ecological risk [Formula: see text]by metal elements to the total potential ecological RI were evident for Cd, As, Pb, and Cu. Contribution of Cu appears to be consistently greater in the abandoned mining area compared to active iron ore-mining site. For non-carcinogenic risk, no significant potential health risk was found to both children and adults as the hazard indices (HIs) were all below than 1. The lifetime cancer risk (LCR) indicated that As has greater potential carcinogenic risk compared to other metals that may induce carcinogenic effects such as Pb, Cr, and Cd, while the LCR of As for children fell within tolerable range for regulatory purposes. Irrespective of carcinogenic or non-carcinogenic risk, greater potential health risk was found among children (by an order of magnitude higher for most metals) compared to adults. The hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk indicated that the pathways for the risk to occur were found to be in the order of ingestion > dermal > inhalation. Overall, findings showed that some metals and metalloid were still present at comparable concentrations even long after cessation of the iron ore-mining activities.

The risk of bronchospasm in asthmatics undergoing general anaesthesia and/or intravascular administration of radiographic contrast media. physiopatology and clinical/functional evaluation.

PubMed

Liccardi, G; Salzillo, A; Piccolo, A; De Napoli, I; D'Amato, G

2010-10-01

It is well known that patients suffering from bronchial asthma undergoing to surgical procedures requiring general anaesthesia (GA) or the administration of water soluble radiographic contrast media (RCM) experience a risk of potentially severe bronchospasm. Nevertheless, little attention has been devoted on the possible preventive measures to reduce the occurrence of this potentially life-threatening event. It has been shown that the most important risk factor for bronchospasm during GA induction and/or the use of RCM is represented by a high degree of bronchial hyperreactivity with airway instability not adequately controlled by long-term anti-inflammatory treatment. The aim of this review is to underline the need for an accurate clinical and functional evaluation of asthmatics (especially those with a relevant degree of asthma severity) undergoing GA or administration of RCM. Guidelines shared by pulmonologists, allergologists, anesthesiologists and radiologists should be produced in the future for a better evaluation and management of these patients. General practitioner plays an important role in managing asthmatic patients in "Real Life". It is likely that "Real Life"--optimally controlled asthmatics could undergo GA/RCM with lower risks especially in emergency conditions when it is not possible to perform any preoperative evaluation.

Evaluation of impact of shale gas operations in the Barnett Shale region on volatile organic compounds in air and potential human health risks.

PubMed

Bunch, A G; Perry, C S; Abraham, L; Wikoff, D S; Tachovsky, J A; Hixon, J G; Urban, J D; Harris, M A; Haws, L C

2014-01-15

Shale gas exploration and production (E&P) has experienced substantial growth across the U.S. over the last decade. The Barnett Shale, in north-central Texas, contains one of the largest, most active onshore gas fields in North America, stretching across 5000 square miles and having an estimated 15,870 producing wells as of 2011. Given that these operations may occur in relatively close proximity to populated/urban areas, concerns have been expressed about potential impacts on human health. In response to these concerns, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality established an extensive air monitoring network in the region. This network provides a unique data set for evaluating the potential impact of shale gas E&P activities on human health. As such, the objective of this study was to evaluate community-wide exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Barnett Shale region. In this current study, more than 4.6 million data points (representing data from seven monitors at six locations, up to 105 VOCs/monitor, and periods of record dating back to 2000) were evaluated. Measured air concentrations were compared to federal and state health-based air comparison values (HBACVs) to assess potential acute and chronic health effects. None of the measured VOC concentrations exceeded applicable acute HBACVs. Only one chemical (1,2-dibromoethane) exceeded its applicable chronic HBACV, but it is not known to be associated with shale gas production activities. Annual average concentrations were also evaluated in deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments and all risks/hazards were below levels of concern. The analyses demonstrate that, for the extensive number of VOCs measured, shale gas production activities have not resulted in community-wide exposures to those VOCs at levels that would pose a health concern. With the high density of active wells in this region, these findings may be useful for understanding potential health risks in other shale play regions. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk and resilience in the shale gas context: a nexus perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosales, T. Y.; Notte, C. A.; Allen, D. M.; Kirste, D. M.

2014-12-01

The accelerated exploration for and development of unconventional gas plays around the world has raised public concern about potential risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a risk assessment framework specific to shale gas development is proposed. The framework aims to quantify and/or qualify both risk and resilience within a water-energy nexus context, using a comprehensive approach that considers environment, health and policy. The risk assessment framework is intended to be flexible so that it can be used in different regions, but will be tested in North East British Columbia, Canada where shale gas development is rapidly expanding. The main components of risk include hazards, susceptibility and potential consequences, which will be evaluated in space and time using ArcGIS software. The hazards are associated with all phases of shale gas development and include: water, air, and soil contamination; water use (surface and groundwater), and land use disturbance, and their assessment will take into account where they may occur, their frequency, duration and magnitude. Hazard-specific susceptibility maps will be generated based on the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g. soil, geology, hydrology, topography) as well as water source information (e.g. well locations), community footprints, etc. When combined with an evaluation of potential consequences, the resulting set of spatial risk maps can then be used for water resource management, land use planning, and industry permitting. Resilience, which buffers risk, here considers the existing regulatory framework and whether or not existing regulations can mitigate risk by reducing the hazard potential or consequences. The study considers how regulations may fully, partially, or inadequately mitigate the consequences of a given hazard. If development is to continue at its current pace in North East BC, it is imperative that decision-makers recognize the changing risk and resilience profiles and respond with appropriate policy. A critical component of the study comprises a gap analysis of current regulation and a possible path forward.

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Rapid Chemical Exposure and Dose Research

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA evaluates the potential risks of the manufacture and use of thousands of chemicals. To assist with this evaluation, EPA scientists developed a rapid, automated model using off the shelf technology that predicts exposures for thousands of chemicals.

Automating the evaluation of flood damages: methodology and potential gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleutério, Julian; Martinez, Edgar Daniel

2010-05-01

The evaluation of flood damage potential consists of three main steps: assessing and processing data, combining data and calculating potential damages. The first step consists of modelling hazard and assessing vulnerability. In general, this step of the evaluation demands more time and investments than the others. The second step of the evaluation consists of combining spatial data on hazard with spatial data on vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a fundamental tool in the realization of this step. GIS software allows the simultaneous analysis of spatial and matrix data. The third step of the evaluation consists of calculating potential damages by means of damage-functions or contingent analysis. All steps demand time and expertise. However, the last two steps must be realized several times when comparing different management scenarios. In addition, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity test are made during the second and third steps of the evaluation. The feasibility of these steps could be relevant in the choice of the extent of the evaluation. Low feasibility could lead to choosing not to evaluate uncertainty or to limit the number of scenario comparisons. Several computer models have been developed over time in order to evaluate the flood risk. GIS software is largely used to realise flood risk analysis. The software is used to combine and process different types of data, and to visualise the risk and the evaluation results. The main advantages of using a GIS in these analyses are: the possibility of "easily" realising the analyses several times, in order to compare different scenarios and study uncertainty; the generation of datasets which could be used any time in future to support territorial decision making; the possibility of adding information over time to update the dataset and make other analyses. However, these analyses require personnel specialisation and time. The use of GIS software to evaluate the flood risk requires personnel with a double professional specialisation. The professional should be proficient in GIS software and in flood damage analysis (which is already a multidisciplinary field). Great effort is necessary in order to correctly evaluate flood damages, and the updating and the improvement of the evaluation over time become a difficult task. The automation of this process should bring great advance in flood management studies over time, especially for public utilities. This study has two specific objectives: (1) show the entire process of automation of the second and third steps of flood damage evaluations; and (2) analyse the induced potential gains in terms of time and expertise needed in the analysis. A programming language is used within GIS software in order to automate hazard and vulnerability data combination and potential damages calculation. We discuss the overall process of flood damage evaluation. The main result of this study is a computational tool which allows significant operational gains on flood loss analyses. We quantify these gains by means of a hypothetical example. The tool significantly reduces the time of analysis and the needs for expertise. An indirect gain is that sensitivity and cost-benefit analyses can be more easily realized.

Methods and strategies for future reactor safety goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Steven Andrew

There have been significant discussions over the past few years by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), and others as to the adequacy of the NRC safety goals for use with the next generation of nuclear power reactors to be built in the United States. The NRC, in its safety goals policy statement, has provided general qualitative safety goals and basic quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for nuclear reactors in the United States. Risk metrics such as core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) have been used as surrogates for the QHOs. In its review of the new plant licensing policy the ACRS has looked at the safety goals, as has the NRC. A number of issues have been raised including what the Commission had in mind when it drafted the safety goals and QHOs, how risk from multiple reactors at a site should be combined for evaluation, how the combination of a new and old reactor at the same site should be evaluated, what the criteria for evaluating new reactors should be, and whether new reactors should be required to be safer than current generation reactors. As part of the development and application of the NRC safety goal policy statement the Commissioners laid out the expectations for the safety of a nuclear power plant but did not address the risk associated with current multi-unit sites, potential modular reactor sites, and hybrid sites that could contain current generation reactors, new passive reactors, and/or modular reactors. The NRC safety goals and the QHOs refer to a "nuclear power plant," but do not discuss whether a "plant" refers to only a single unit or all of the units on a site. There has been much discussion on this issue recently due to the development of modular reactors. Additionally, the risk of multiple reactor accidents on the same site has been largely ignored in the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) done to date, and in most risk-informed analyses and discussions. This dissertation examines potential approaches to updating the safety goals that include the establishment of new quantitative safety goal associated with the comparative risk of generating electricity by viable competing technologies and modifications of the goals to account for multi-plant reactor sites, and issues associated with the use of safety goals in both initial licensing and operational decision making. This research develops a new quantitative health objective that uses a comparable benefit risk metric based on the life-cycle risk of the construction, operation and decommissioning of a comparable non-nuclear electric generation facility, as well as the risks associated with mining and transportation. This dissertation also evaluates the effects of using various methods for aggregating site risk as a safety metric, as opposed to using single plant safety goals. Additionally, a number of important assumptions inherent in the current safety goals, including the effect of other potential negative societal effects such as the generation of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide) have on the risk of electric power production and their effects on the setting of safety goals, is explored. Finally, the role risk perception should play in establishing safety goals has been explored. To complete this evaluation, a new method to analytically compare alternative technologies of generating electricity was developed, including development of a new way to evaluate risk perception, and a new method was developed for evaluating the risk at multiple units on a single site. To test these modifications to the safety goals a number of possible reactor designs and configurations were evaluated using these new proposed safety goals to determine the goals' usefulness and utility. The results of the analysis showed that the modifications provide measures that more closely evaluate the potential risk to the public from the operation of nuclear power plants than the current safety goals, while still providing a straight-forward process for assessment of reactor design and operation.

Evaluation of the Buckeye Crossbuck at public, passive railroad/highway grade crossings in Ohio.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

Two new crossbuck designs for use at passive Railroad/Highway Grade Crossings (RRX) were evaluated. The Standard Improved and the Buckeye crossbuck were evaluated on a state-wide basis in Ohio with respect to their potential to alter driver risk taki...

Evaluation Project of a Postvention Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Robert; And Others

A student suicide or parasuicide increases the risk that potentially suicidal teenagers see suicide as an enviable option. The "copycat effect" can be reduced by a postvention program. This proposed evaluative research project will provide an implementation and impact evaluation of a school's postvention program following a suicide or…

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is releasing the draft report, Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran, that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the IRIS Assessment Development Process. Comments received from other Federal agencies and White House Offices are provided below with external peer review panel comments. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

[Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

2016-05-15

Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

The role of the anterior cingulate cortex in women's sexual decision making.

PubMed

Rupp, Heather A; James, Thomas W; Ketterson, Ellen D; Sengelaub, Dale R; Janssen, Erick; Heiman, Julia R

2009-01-02

Women's sexual decision making is a complex process balancing the potential rewards of conception and pleasure against the risks of possible low paternal care or sexually transmitted infection. Although neural processes underlying social decision making are suggested to overlap with those involved in economic decision making, the neural systems associated with women's sexual decision making are unknown. Using fMRI, we measured the brain activation of 12 women while they viewed photos of men's faces. Face stimuli were accompanied by information regarding each man's potential risk as a sexual partner, indicated by a written description of the man's number of previous sexual partners and frequency of condom use. Participants were asked to evaluate how likely they would be to have sex with the man depicted. Women reported that they would be more likely to have sex with low compared to high risk men. Stimuli depicting low risk men also elicited stronger activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), midbrain, and intraparietal sulcus, possibly reflecting an influence of sexual risk on women's attraction, arousal, and attention during their sexual decision making. Activation in the ACC was positively correlated with women's subjective evaluations of sex likelihood and response times during their evaluations of high, but not low risk men. These findings provide evidence that neural systems involved in sexual decision making in women overlap with those described previously to underlie nonsexual decision making.

Veterinary antibiotic resistance, residues, and ecological risks in environmental samples obtained from poultry farms, Egypt.

PubMed

Dahshan, Hesham; Abd-Elall, Amr Mohamed Mohamed; Megahed, Ayman Mohamed; Abd-El-Kader, Mahdy A; Nabawy, Ehab Elsayed

2015-02-01

In Egypt, poultry production constitutes one of the main sources of pollution with veterinary antibiotics (VAs) into the environment. About 80 % of meat production in Egypt is of poultry origin, and the potential environmental risks associated with the use of VAs in these farms have not yet been properly evaluated. Thus, the main purpose of this research was to evaluate the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant enteric key bacteria and the incidence of residual antibiotics in poultry farm environmental samples and to determine whether fertilizing soils with poultry litter from farms potentially brings ecological risks. From December 2011 to September 2012, a total of 225 litter, bird dropping, and water samples were collected from 75 randomly selected boiler poultry farms. A high prevalence of Escherichia coli (n = 179; 79.5 %) in contrast to the low prevalence of Salmonella spp. (n = 7; 3.1 %) was detected. Amongst E. coli isolates, serotypes O142:K86, O125:K70, O91:K, and O119:K69 were the most common. Meanwhile, Salmonella enterica serotypes emek and enteritidis were recovered. The antibiograms using the disc diffusion method revealed significantly more common resistant and multi-resistant isolates in broiler poultry farms. Residues of tetracycline and ciprofloxacin were detected at 2.125 and 1.401 mg kg(-1) mean levels, respectively, in environmental samples contaminated with E. coli-resistant strains by HPLC. The risk evaluations highlighted that tetracycline residues in poultry litter significantly display environmental risks with a hazard quotient value above 1 (1.64). Our study implies that ineffective implementation of veterinary laws which guide and guard against incorrect VA usage may potentially bring health and environmental risks.

The Aristotle method: a new concept to evaluate quality of care based on complexity.

PubMed

Lacour-Gayet, François; Clarke, David R

2005-06-01

Evaluation of quality of care is a duty of the modern medical practice. A reliable method of quality evaluation able to compare fairly institutions and inform a patient and his family of the potential risk of a procedure is clearly needed. It is now well recognized that any method that purports to evaluate quality of care should include a case mix/risk stratification method. No valuable method was available until recently in pediatric cardiac surgery. The Aristotle method is a new concept of evaluation of quality of care in congenital heart surgery based on the complexity of the surgical procedures. Involving a panel of expert surgeons, the project started in 1999 and included 50 pediatric surgeons from 23 countries. The basic score adjusts the complexity of a given procedure and is calculated as the sum of potential for mortality, potential for morbidity and anticipated technical difficulty. The Comprehensive Score further adjusts the complexity according to the specific patient characteristics (anatomy, associated procedures, co-morbidity, etc.). The Aristotle method is original as it introduces several new concepts: the calculated complexity is a constant for a given patient all over the world; complexity is an independent value and risk is a variable depending on the performance; and Performance = Complexity x Outcome. The Aristotle score is a good vector of communication between patients, doctors and insurance companies and may stimulate the quality and the organization of heath care in our field and in others.

Neural correlates of perceived risk: the case of HIV

PubMed Central

Renner, Britta; Schupp, Harald T.

2012-01-01

Research indicates that many people do not use condoms consistently but rather rely on illusory control strategies for avoiding an infection with HIV. Preliminary evidence suggests that people form impressions of a partner’s HIV risk based on his or her physical appearance. To examine the neural correlates of such appearance-based HIV risk impressions, event-related potentials were recorded while participants viewed portraits of unacquainted persons. Participants’ explicit HIV risk ratings for each of the presented unacquainted persons were used to form categories of low and high HIV risk persons. Results showed that risky, compared to safe persons elicited distinct event-related potential (ERP) modulations. Viewing risky persons was associated with an increased positivity over right frontal regions between 180 and 240 ms. This suggests that impressions related to HIV risk occur rapidly, presumably reflecting automatic person evaluations eluding introspection. In a time window between 450 and 600 ms, risky persons elicited an increased late positive potential. Consistent with previous findings reporting augmented late positive potentials (LPP) amplitudes to affectively significant stimuli, the results support the assumption that risky faces draw more attention resources. These findings are in accordance with the ‘risk as feeling’ notion. PMID:21672948

Evaluation of potential effects of federal land management alternatives on trends of salmonids and their habitats in the interior Columbia River basin.

Treesearch

Bruce Rieman; James T. Peterson; James Clayton; Philip Howell; Russell Thurow; William Thompson; Danny Lee

2001-01-01

Aquatic species throughout the interior Columbia River basin are at risk. Evaluation of the potential effects of federal land management on aquatic ecosystems across this region is an important but challenging task. Issues include the size and complexity of the systems, uncertainty in important processes and existing states, flexibility and consistency in the...

Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

2017-06-01

The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2015-10-01

Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assaying the Effect of Levodopa on the Evaluation of Risk in Healthy Humans

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Wright, Nicholas D.; Fagan, Elizabeth; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20) employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes) and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes - skewness), dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback. PMID:23844168

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Risk and pathway assessment for the introduction of exotic insects and pathogens that could affect Hawai'i's native forests

Treesearch

Gregg A. DeNitto; Philip Cannon; Andris Eglitis; Jessie A. Glaeser; Helen Maffei; Sheri Smith

2015-01-01

The unmitigated risk potential of the introduction of exotic insects and pathogens to Hawai'i was evaluated for its impact on native plants, specifically Acacia koa, Cibotium spp., Dicranopteris linearis, Diospyros sandwicensis, Dodonaea viscosa, ...

Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

PubMed

Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

2017-11-01

Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in farmed smeltfish (Ayu, Plecoglossus altirelis) in aseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Jin-Jing; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2008-09-15

This study spatially analyzed potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural smeltfish (Plecoglossus altirelis) from the Lanyang Plain of northeastern Taiwan. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was adopted to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural smeltfish was employed to evaluate the potential risk to human health. The probabilistic risk assessment determined by Monte Carlo simulation and SIS is used to propagate properly the uncertainty of parameters. Safe and hazardous aquacultural regions were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use. The TRs determined from the risks at the 95th percentiles exceed one millionth, indicating that ingesting smeltfish that are farmed in the highly As-affected regions represents a potential cancer threat to human health. The 95th percentile of TRs is considered in formulating a strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage.

[Pollution and Potential Ecology Risk Evaluation of Heavy Metals in River Water, Top Sediments on Bed and Soils Along Banks of Bortala River, Northwest China].

PubMed

Zhang, Zhao-yong; Abuduwaili, Jilili; Jiang, Feng-qing

2015-07-01

This paper focuses on the sources, pollution status and potential ecology risks of heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Hg, As, Cd, Pb, and Zn) in the surface water, top sediment of river bed and soil along banks of Bortala River, which locates in the oasis region of Xinjiang, northwest China. Results showed that: (1) As a whole, contents of 7 tested heavy metals of Bortala River were low, while the maximum values of Hg, Cd, Pb, and Cr in the river water were significantly higher than those of Secondary Category of the Surface Water Quality Standards of People's Republic of China (GB 3838-2002) and Drinking Water Guideline from WHO. Analysis showed that the heavy metals contents of top sediment on river bed and soils along river banks were significantly higher than those of the river water. (Correlation analysis and enrichment factor (EF) calculation showed that in the river water, top sediment on river bed and soils along river banks, Hg, Cd, Pb, and Cr mainly originated from industrial emissions, urban and rural anthropogenic activities, transportation and agricultural production activities; While Cu, Zn, and As mainly originated from natural geological background and soil parent materials. (3) Pollution assessment showed that in three matrices, the single factor pollution index(Pi) and the integrated pollution index (Pz) of 7 heavy metals were all lower than 1, and they all belonged to safe and clean levels. (4) Potential ecology risk evaluation showed that as a whole the single factor potential ecological risk (Eir) and the integrated potential ecology risks (RI) of 7 heavy metals were relatively low, and would not cause threats to the health of water and soil environment of river basin, while the potential ecology risks of Cd, Hg, Pb, and Cr were significantly higher than those of other heavy metals.

Assisted reproductive technologies: medical safety issues in the older woman.

PubMed

Segev, Yakir; Riskin-Mashiah, Shlomit; Lavie, Ofer; Auslender, Ron

2011-06-01

Abstract Previous study has shown that in the United States, most maternal deaths and severe obstetric complications due to chronic disease are potentially preventable through improved medical care before conception. Many women who need assisted reproductive technology (ART) because of infertility are older than the average pregnant woman. Risks for such chronic diseases as obesity, diabetes mellitus, chronic hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and malignancy greatly increase with maternal age. Chronic illness increases the risk of the in vitro fertilization (IVF) procedure and is also associated with increased obstetric risk and even death. The objective of this review is to outline the potential risks for older women who undergo ART procedures and pregnancy and to characterize guidelines for evaluation before enrollment in ART programs. A PubMed search revealed that very few studies have related to pre-ART medical evaluation. Therefore, we suggest a pre-ART medical assessment, comparable to the recommendations of the American Heart Association before noncompetitive physical activity and the American Society of Anesthesiologists before elective surgery. This assessment should include a thorough medical questionnaire and medical examination. Further evaluation and treatment should follow to ensure the safety of ART procedures and of ensuing pregnancies.

Evaluation of the Buckeye Crossbuck at public, passive railroad/highway grade crossings in Ohio : executive summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

Two new crossbuck designs for use at passive Railroad/Highway Grade Crossings (RRX) were evaluated. : The Standard Improved and the Buckeye crossbuck were evaluated on a state-wide basis in Ohio with : respect to their potential to alter driver risk ...

Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).

PubMed

Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A

2016-09-15

The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Association Between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Rotator Cuff Tendinopathy: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Applegate, Kara Arnold; Thiese, Matthew S; Merryweather, Andrew S; Kapellusch, Jay; Drury, David L; Wood, Eric; Kendall, Richard; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Hegmann, Kurt T

2017-02-01

Recent evidence has found potential associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and common musculoskeletal disorders. We evaluated possible associations between risk factors and both glenohumeral joint pain and rotator cuff tendinopathy. Data from WISTAH hand study participants (n = 1226) were assessed for associations between Framingham Heart Study CVD risk factors and both health outcomes. A strong association was observed between CVD risk scores and both glenohumeral joint pain and rotator cuff tendinopathy. Peak odds ratios (ORs) of the adjusted models were 4.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.97 to 10.31] and 5.97 (95% CI 2.12 to 16.83), respectively. The results show a dose-response trend of increasing risk. Individual risk factors were associated with both outcomes. Combined, CVD risk factors demonstrated a strong correlation with glenohumeral joint pain and an even stronger correlation with rotator cuff tendinopathy. Results suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

Adolescent mothers and child abuse potential: an evaluation of risk factors.

PubMed

Dukewich, T L; Borkowski, J G; Whitman, T L

1996-11-01

This research examines maternal and child factors that place adolescent mothers at risk for abusing their children. Using a longitudinal design, relationships among four risk factors (social supports, maternal psychological adjustment, maternal preparation for parenting, and child temperament), maternal psychological predisposition for aggressive coping (perceptions of stress and endorsements of punitive parenting), and maternal abuse potential were examined in a sample of 75 primiparous adolescent mothers and their children. Preparation for parenting, a construct which included knowledge and attitudes about children's development, was the strongest direct predictor of abuse potential; however, its effects were also partially mediated by the mother's psychological predisposition for aggressive coping. Similarly, the effects of child temperament on abuse were mediated by the mother's psychological predisposition for aggressive coping. Implications for designing intervention programs, and identifying at-risk adolescents, were also discussed.

Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

PubMed

Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

2015-01-01

Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

Inter-Pregnancy Intervals and the Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder: Results of a Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durkin, Maureen S.; DuBois, Lindsay A.; Maenner, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have reported an increased risk of autism among second-born children conceived <12 versus >36 months after the birth of a sibling. Confirmation of this finding would point to inter-pregnancy interval (IPI) as a potentially modifiable risk factor for autism. This study evaluated the relationship between IPI and autism spectrum…

Texas Disasters II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the Texas Forest Service in Mapping and Analyzing Fuel Loads and Phenology in Texas Grasslands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooke, Michael; Williams, Meredith; Fenn, Teresa

2016-01-01

The risk of severe wildfires in Texas has been related to weather phenomena such as climate change and recent urban expansion into wild land areas. During recent years, Texas wild land areas have experienced sequences of wet and dry years that have contributed to increased wildfire risk and frequency. To prevent and contain wildfires, the Texas Forest Service (TFS) is tasked with evaluating and reducing potential fire risk to better manage and distribute resources. This task is made more difficult due to the vast and varied landscape of Texas. The TFS assesses fire risk by understanding vegetative fuel types and fuel loads. To better assist the TFS, NASA Earth observations, including Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Specrtoradiometer (MODIS) data, were analyzed to produce maps of vegetation type and specific vegetation phenology as it related to potential wildfire fuel loads. Fuel maps from 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 fire seasons, created by the Texas Disasters I project, were used and provided alternating, complementary map indicators of wildfire risk in Texas. The TFS will utilize the end products and capabilities to evaluate and better understand wildfire risk across Texas.

An evaluation of asymptomatic Dengue infections among blood donors during the 2014 Dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Liao, Qiao; Shan, Zhengang; Wang, Min; Huang, Jieting; Xu, Ru; Huang, Ke; Tang, Xi; Zhang, Weiyun; Nelson, Kenrad; Li, Chengyao; Fu, Yongshui; Rong, Xia

2017-11-01

In 2014, an outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) infection led to 45 171 clinical cases diagnosed in Guangdong province, Southern China. However, the potential risk of blood donors asymptomatically infected with DENV has not been evaluated . In the current study we detected anti-DENV IgG antibody and RNA in volunteer Chinese blood donors. We found that anti-DENV IgG antibody was positively detected in 3.4% (51/1500) and two donors were detected as being DENV RNA positive out of 3000 blood samples. We concluded that the presence of potential DENV in blood donors might be potential risk for blood safety. Therefore, screening for DENV infection should be considered in blood donations during a period of dengue outbreak in high epidemic area of China. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.D.

This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medicalmore » system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.« less

DEGRADATION AND TOXIC ASSESSMENT OF WEATHERED TOXAPHENE IN SOILS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment of weathered toxaphene is currently being investigated by NCEA-Cin in an effort to evaluate the potential health risks from exposure to complex mixture of weathered chemicals under both anaerobic and aerobic conditions. The goal of this effort is to develop me...

The influence of risk and monetary payment on the research participation decision making process

PubMed Central

Bentley, J; Thacker, P

2004-01-01

Objectives: To determine the effects of risk and payment on subjects' willingness to participate, and to examine how payment influences subjects' potential behaviours and risk evaluations. Methods: A 3 (level of risk) x 3 (level of monetary payment), between subjects, completely randomised factorial design was used. Students enrolled at one of five US pharmacy schools read a recruitment notice and informed consent form for a hypothetical study, and completed a questionnaire. Risk level was manipulated using recruitment notices and informed consent documents from hypothetical biomedical research projects. Payment levels were determined using the payment models evaluated by Dickert and Grady as a guide. Five dependent variables were assessed in the questionnaire: willingness to participate, willingness to participate with no payment, propensity to neglect to tell about restricted activities, propensity to neglect to tell about negative effects, and risk rating. Results: Monetary payment had positive effects on respondents' willingness to participate in research, regardless of the level of risk. However, higher monetary payments did not appear to blind respondents to the risks of a study. Payment had some influence on respondents' potential behaviours regarding concealing information about restricted activities. However, payment did not appear to have a significant effect on respondents' propensity to neglect to tell researchers about negative effects. Conclusions: Monetary payments appear to do what they are intended to do: make subjects more willing to participate in research. Concerns about payments blinding subjects to risks could not be substantiated in the present study. However, the findings do raise other concerns—notably the potential for payments to diminish the integrity of a study's findings. Future research is critical to make sound decisions about the payment of research subjects. PMID:15173366

Evaluation of Bar, Barnase, and Barstar recombinant proteins expressed in genetically engineered Brassica juncea (Indian mustard) for potential risks of food allergy using bioinformatics and literature searches.

PubMed

Siruguri, Vasanthi; Bharatraj, Dinesh Kumar; Vankudavath, Raju Naik; Mendu, Vishnu Vardhana Rao; Gupta, Vibha; Goodman, Richard E

2015-09-01

The potential allergenicity of Bar, Barnase, and Barstar recombinant proteins expressed in genetically engineered mustard for pollination control in plant breeding was evaluated for regulatory review. To evaluate the potential allergenicity of the Bar, Barnase and Barstar proteins amino acid sequence comparisons were made to those of known and putative allergens, and search for published evidence to the sources of the genes using the AllergenOnline.org database. Initial comparisons in 2012 were performed with version 12 by methods recommended by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and the Indian Council of Medical Research, Government of India. Searches were repeated with version 15 in 2015. A literature search was performed using PubMed to identify reports of allergy associated with the sources of the three transgenes. Potential open reading frames at the DNA insertion site were evaluated for matches to allergens. No significant sequence identity matches were identified with Bar, Barnase or Barstar proteins or potential fusion peptides at the genomic-insert junctions compared to known allergens. No references were identified that associated the sources of the genes with allergy. Based on these results we conclude that the Bar, Barnase and Barstar proteins are unlikely to present any significant risk of food allergy to consumers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Potential Risk of Hepatitis B Virus Transmission in Skin Allografting.

PubMed

Wang, D; Xie, W; Chen, T; Dong, C; Zhao, C; Tan, H; Tian, H; Xie, Q

2015-01-01

Skin transplantation is associated with potential risk of infectious disease transmission; however, the exclusion of donors owing to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection will worsen the shortage of allograft skin supply. We report a paired study to evaluate the potential risk of HBV transmission in skin allografting. The presence of HBV DNA in the serum and skin from 37 burn patients with chronic HBV infection (CHB) was monitored by a HBV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and the positive rates were compared by Fisher's exact probability test. There was a high consistency in the HBV serology profile between HBV DNA PCR (83.78%) and the clinical HBV test. Only 2 patients who were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, hepatitis B e antigen, and hepatitis B core antibody had detectable HBV DNA in the skin tissue; however, no hepatitis B surface antigen was detected as examined by immunohistochemistry staining. There was a significant difference between the positive rates of HBV DNA in the serum and skin (χc(2) = 27.03; P < .001). The potential risk for HBV transmission by skin allografting is very low. Given that China has a large population of patients with HBV, the acceptance of skin from donors with CHB to the skin bank would increase the number of tissue donations to meet the urgent medical need for skin transplantation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE RESEARCH PROGRAM: Rain Gardens

EPA Science Inventory

the National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) rain garden evaluation is part of a larger collection of long-term research that evaluates a variety of stormwater management practices. The U.S. EPA recognizes the potential of rain gardens as a green infrastructure manag...

A Decision Support Framework for Evaluation of Engineered Nanomaterials

EPA Science Inventory

Engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are currently being developed and applied at rates that far exceed our ability to evaluate their potential for environmental or human health risks. The gap between material development and capacity for assessment grows wider every day. Transforma...

Activity profiles of 309 ToxCast™ chemicals evaluated across 292 biochemical targets

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the potential health risks posed by environmental chemicals is a significant challenge elevated by the large number of diverse chemicals with generally uncharacterized exposures, mechanisms, and toxicities. The present study is a performance evaluation and critical ...

The Value of Ultrasound Monitoring of Adnexal Masses for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Suh-Burgmann, Elizabeth; Kinney, Walter

2016-01-01

Although ultrasound has so far been found to be ineffective as a screening tool for ovarian cancer, it is commonly used as a means of evaluating or following ovarian or adnexal masses once they are detected. We review the use of serial ultrasound for the management of adnexal masses and propose an approach to monitoring based on an understanding of the overall risk of cancer among the population in question and an assessment of how the potential benefit of monitoring compares with potential risk. In our approach, masses that are symptomatic, large (>10 cm), associated with an elevated CA 125 level or overt signs of malignancy, or that are determined to have a worrisome appearance by stringent ultrasound criteria should be evaluated surgically. Women with masses that have none of these characteristics should be offered monitoring. Short-term initial ultrasound monitoring carries significant potential benefit in terms of aiding detection of early malignancy and avoidance of unnecessary surgery. However, if a mass remains stable but persistent, the potential benefit of ongoing monitoring wanes with time, whereas the potential harms, in terms of patient anxiety, cost, and the risk of incidental findings and unnecessary surgery increase. Therefore, monitoring of stable lesions should be limited in duration in order to limit potential harms from overtreatment and overdiagnosis. PMID:26904503

Preparticipation Evaluation for Climbing Sports.

PubMed

Campbell, Aaron D; Davis, Christopher; Paterson, Ryan; Cushing, Tracy A; Ng, Pearlly; Peterson, Charles S; Sedgwick, Peter E; McIntosh, Scott E

2015-12-01

Climbing is a popular wilderness sport among a wide variety of professional athletes and amateur enthusiasts, and many styles are performed across many environments. Potential risks confront climbers, including personal health or exacerbation of a chronic condition, in addition to climbing-specific risks or injuries. Although it is not common to perform a preparticipation evaluation (PPE) for climbing, a climber or a guide agency may request such an evaluation before participation. Formats from traditional sports PPEs can be drawn upon, but often do not directly apply. The purpose of this article was to incorporate findings from expert opinion from professional societies in wilderness medicine and in sports medicine, with findings from the literature of both climbing epidemiology and traditional sports PPEs, into a general PPE that would be sufficient for the broad sport of climbing. The emphasis is on low altitude climbing, and an overview of different climbing styles is included. Knowledge of climbing morbidity and mortality, and a standardized approach to the PPE that involves adequate history taking and counseling have the potential for achieving risk reduction and will facilitate further study on the evaluation of the efficacy of PPEs. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

How Do Alcohol and Relationship Type Affect Women’s Risk Judgment of Partners with Differing Risk Histories?

PubMed Central

Norris, Jeanette; Kiekel, Preston A.; Morrison, Diane M.; Davis, Kelly Cue; George, William H.; Zawacki, Tina; Abdallah, Devon Alisa; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J.; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A.

2013-01-01

Understanding how women judge male partners’ sexual risk is important to developing risk reduction programs. Applying a cognitive mediation model of sexual decision making, our study investigated effects of alcohol consumption (control, low dose, high dose) and relationship type (disrupted vs. new) on women’s risk judgments of a male sexual partner in three sexual risk conditions (low, unknown, high). After random assignment to an experimental condition, 328 participants projected themselves into a story depicting a sexual interaction. The story was paused to assess primary appraisals of sexual and relationship potential and secondary appraisals of pleasure, health, and relationship concerns, followed by sexual risk judgments. In all risk conditions, alcohol and disrupted relationship increased sexual potential whereas disrupted relationship increased relationship potential in the low- and high-risk conditions. In the unknown-risk condition, women in the no-alcohol, new relationship condition had the lowest primary sexual appraisals. In all conditions, sexual appraisals predicted all secondary appraisals, but primary relationship appraisals predicted only secondary relationship appraisals. Secondary health appraisals led to increased risk judgments whereas relationship appraisals predicted lower risk judgments. Possible intervention points include helping women to re-evaluate their safety beliefs about past partners, as well as to develop behavioral strategies for decreasing hazardous drinking. PMID:24003264

Modeling potential occupational inhalation exposures and associated risks of toxic organics from chemical storage tanks used in hydraulic fracturing using AERMOD.

PubMed

Chen, Huan; Carter, Kimberly E

2017-05-01

Various toxic chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing fluids may influence the inherent health risks associated with these operations. This study investigated the possible occupational inhalation exposures and potential risks related to the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from chemical storage tanks and flowback pits used in hydraulic fracturing. Potential risks were evaluated based on radial distances between 5 m and 180 m from the wells for 23 contaminants with known inhalation reference concentration (RfC) or inhalation unit risks (IUR). Results show that chemicals used in 12.4% of the wells posed a potential acute non-cancer risks for exposure and 0.11% of the wells with may provide chronic non-cancer risks for exposure. Chemicals used in 7.5% of the wells were associated with potential acute cancer risks for exposure. Those chemicals used in 5.8% of the wells may be linked to chronic cancer risks for exposure. While eight organic compounds were associated with acute non-cancer risks for exposure (>1), methanol the major compound in the chemical storage tanks (1.00-45.49) in 7,282 hydraulic fracturing wells. Wells with chemicals additives containing formaldehyde exhibited both acute and chronic cancer risks for exposure with IUR greater than 10 -6 , suggesting formaldehyde was the dominant contributor to both types of risks for exposure in hydraulic fracturing. This study also found that due to other existing on-site emission sources of VOCs and the geographically compounded air concentrations from other surrounding wells, chemical emissions data from storage tanks and flowback pits used in this study were lower than reported concentrations from field measurements where higher occupational inhalation risks for exposure may be expected. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.

A risk modelling approach for setting microbiological limits using enterococci as indicator for growth potential of Salmonella in pork.

PubMed

Bollerslev, Anne Mette; Nauta, Maarten; Hansen, Tina Beck; Aabo, Søren

2017-01-02

Microbiological limits are widely used in food processing as an aid to reduce the exposure to hazardous microorganisms for the consumers. However, in pork, the prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella are generally low and microbiological limits are not considered an efficient tool to support hygiene interventions. The objective of the present study was to develop an approach which could make it possible to define potential risk-based microbiological limits for an indicator, enterococci, in order to evaluate the risk from potential growth of Salmonella. A positive correlation between the concentration of enterococci and the prevalence and concentration of Salmonella was shown for 6640 pork samples taken at Danish cutting plants and retail butchers. The samples were collected in five different studies in 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011 and 2013. The observations that both Salmonella and enterococci are carried in the intestinal tract, contaminate pork by the same mechanisms and share similar growth characteristics (lag phase and maximum specific growth rate) at temperatures around 5-10°C, suggest a potential of enterococci to be used as an indicator of potential growth of Salmonella in pork. Elevated temperatures during processing will lead to growth of both enterococci and, if present, also Salmonella. By combining the correlation between enterococci and Salmonella with risk modelling, it is possible to predict the risk of salmonellosis based on the level of enterococci. The risk model used for this purpose includes the dose-response relationship for Salmonella and a reduction factor to account for preparation of the fresh pork. By use of the risk model, it was estimated that the majority of salmonellosis cases, caused by the consumption of pork in Denmark, is caused by the small fraction of pork products that has enterococci concentrations above 5logCFU/g. This illustrates that our approach can be used to evaluate the potential effect of different microbiological limits and therefore, the perspective of this novel approach is that it can be used for definition of a risk-based microbiological limit for enterococci. The limit for enterococci can then be used for development of a process hygiene criterion in cutting plants and retail butcher shops, with the purpose of reducing the risk of Salmonella for the consumer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-06-01

The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

2014-03-01

Aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and predict the trend of soil heavy metal pollution around a~coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in an order of E(Cd) > E(Pb) > E(Cu) > E(Cr) > E(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor led to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, and the fixed number of years exceeding standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metal, and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provide some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent and decrease heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump in Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

The public health impact of avian influenza viruses.

PubMed

Katz, J M; Veguilla, V; Belser, J A; Maines, T R; Van Hoeven, N; Pappas, C; Hancock, K; Tumpey, T M

2009-04-01

Influenza viruses with novel hemagglutinin and 1 or more accompanying genes derived from avian influenza viruses sporadically emerge in humans and have the potential to result in a pandemic if the virus causes disease and spreads efficiently in a population that lacks immunity to the novel hemagglutinin. Since 1997, multiple avian influenza virus subtypes have been transmitted directly from domestic poultry to humans and have caused a spectrum of human disease, from asymptomatic to severe and fatal. To assess the pandemic risk that avian influenza viruses pose, we have used multiple strategies to better understand the capacity of avian viruses to infect, cause disease, and transmit among mammals, including humans. Seroepidemiologic studies that evaluate the frequency and risk of human infection with avian influenza viruses in populations with exposure to domestic or wild birds can provide a better understanding of the pandemic potential of avian influenza subtypes. Investigations conducted in Hong Kong following the first H5N1 outbreak in humans in 1997 determined that exposure to poultry in live bird markets was a key risk factor for human disease. Among poultry workers, butchering and exposure to sick poultry were risk factors for antibody to H5 virus, which provided evidence for infection. A second risk assessment tool, the ferret, can be used to evaluate the level of virulence and potential for host-to-host transmission of avian influenza viruses in this naturally susceptible host. Avian viruses isolated from humans exhibit a level of virulence and transmissibility in ferrets that generally reflects that seen in humans. The ferret model thus provides a means to monitor emerging avian influenza viruses for pandemic risk, as well as to evaluate laboratory-generated reassortants and mutants to better understand the molecular basis of influenza virus transmissibility. Taken together, such studies provide valuable information with which we can assess the public health risk of avian influenza viruses.

Assessing the potential impact of non-proprietary drug copies on quality of medicine and treatment in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis: the experience with fingolimod.

PubMed

Correale, Jorge; Chiquete, Erwin; Milojevic, Snezana; Frider, Nadina; Bajusz, Imre

2014-01-01

Fingolimod is a once-daily oral treatment for relapsing multiple sclerosis, the proprietary production processes of which are tightly controlled, owing to its susceptibility to contamination by impurities, including genotoxic impurities. Many markets produce nonproprietary medicines; assessing their efficacy and safety is difficult as regulators may approve nonproprietary drugs without bioequivalence data, genotoxic evaluation, or risk management plans (RMPs). This assessment is especially important for fingolimod given its solubility/bioavailability profile, genotoxicity risk, and low-dose final product (0.5 mg). This paper presents an evaluation of the quality of proprietary and nonproprietary fingolimod variants. Proprietary fingolimod was used as a reference substance against which eleven nonproprietary fingolimod copies were assessed. The microparticle size distribution of each compound was assessed by laser light diffraction, and inorganic impurity content by sulfated ash testing. Heavy metals content was quantified using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry, and levels of unspecified impurities by high-performance liquid chromatography. Solubility was assessed in a range of solvents at different pH values. Key information from the fingolimod RMP is also presented. Nonproprietary fingolimod variants exhibited properties out of proprietary or internationally accepted specifications, including differences in particle size distribution and levels of impurities such as heavy metals. For microparticle size and heavy metals, all tested fingolimod copies were out-of-specification by several-fold magnitudes. Proprietary fingolimod has a well-defined RMP, highlighting known and potential mid- to long-term safety risks, and risk-minimization and pharmacovigilance procedures. Nonproprietary fingolimod copies produced by processes less well controlled than or altered from proprietary production processes may reduce product reproducibility and quality, potentially presenting risks to patients. Safety data and risk-minimization strategies for proprietary fingolimod may not apply to the nonproprietary fingolimod copies evaluated here. Market authorization of nonproprietary fingolimod copies should require an appropriate RMP to minimize risks to patients.

Bioassays for toxicological risk assessment of landfill leachate: A review.

PubMed

Ghosh, Pooja; Thakur, Indu Shekhar; Kaushik, Anubha

2017-07-01

Landfilling is the most common solid waste management practice. However, there exist a potential environmental risk to the surface and ground waters due to the possible leaching of contaminants from the landfill leachates. Current municipal solid waste landfill regulatory approaches consider physicochemical characterization of the leachate and do not assess their potential toxicity. However, assessment of toxic effects of the leachates using rapid, sensitive and cost-effective biological assays is more useful in assessing the risks as they measure the overall toxicity of the chemicals in the leachate. Nevertheless, more research is needed to develop an appropriate matrix of bioassays based on their sensitivity to various toxicants in order to evaluate leachate toxicity. There is a need for a multispecies approach using organisms representing different trophic levels so as to understand the potential impacts of leachate on different trophic organisms. The article reviews different bioassays available for assessing the hazard posed by landfill leachates. From the review it appears that there is a need for a multispecies approach to evaluate leachate toxicity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

PubMed

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Femoral and carotid subclinical atherosclerosis association with risk factors and coronary calcium: the AWHS study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

BACKGROUND: Early subclinical atherosclerosis has been mainly researched in carotid arteries. The potential value of femoral arteries for improving the predictive capacity of traditional risk factors is an understudied area. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the association of subclinical ca...

77 FR 9665 - Submission for OMB Emergency Review; Comment Request: A Multi-Center International Hospital-Based...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-17

... postulated risk factors for evaluation in this study are chemical exposures (i.e., organochlorines, trichloroethylene, and benzene) and genetic susceptibility. Other factors potentially related to lymphoma, such as... also be studied. Patterns of key risk factors, including range of exposures, prevalence of exposures...

Evaluation and development of tools to quantify the impacts of roadside vegetation barriers on near-road air quality.

EPA Science Inventory

Traffic emissions are associated with the elevation of health risks of people living close to highways. Roadside vegetation barriers have the potential of reducing these risks by decreasing near-road air pollution concentrations. However, while we understand the mechanisms that d...

Evaluating Health Risks from Inhaled Polychlorinated Biphenyls: Research Needs for Addressing Uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

Indoor air polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in some U.S. schools are one or more orders of magnitude higher than background levels. In response to this, efforts have been made to assess the potential health risk posed by inhaled PCBs. These efforts are hindered by un...

Human Health Risk Implications of Multiple Sources of Faecal Indicator Bacteria in a Recreational Waterbody

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluate the influence of multiple sources of faecal indicator bacteria in recreational water bodies on potential human health risk by considering waters impacted by human and animal sources, human and non-pathogenic sources, and animal and non-pathogenic sources. We illustrat...

COMPARISON OF THE NON-ADDITIVE INTERACTIONS OF AN ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDE MIXTURE IN ADULT AND PREWEANLING RATS.

EPA Science Inventory

Critical features of risk assessment include the evaluation of risk following exposure to pesticide mixtures as well as the potential for increased sensitivity of the young. This research tested for interaction(s) using a mixture of five organophosphorus (OP) pesticides (chlorp...

NON-ADDITIVE INTERACTIONS OF AN ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDE MIXTURE IN ADULT AND PREWEANLING RATS.

EPA Science Inventory

Critical features of risk assessment include the evaluation of risk following exposure to pesticide mixtures as well as the potential for increased sensitivity of the young. The US EPA is required to regulate pesticides acting via a common mechanism of action as a group, e.g.,...

Participation in Athletics and Female Sexual Risk Behavior: The Evaluation of Four Causal Structures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodge, Tonya; Jaccard, James

2002-01-01

Compared sexual risk behavior of female athletes and nonathletes. Examined mediation, reverse mediation, spurious effects, and moderated causal models, using as potential mediators physical development, educational aspirations, self-esteem, attitudes toward pregnancy, involvement in a romantic relationship, age, ethnicity, and social class. Found…

Evaluation of triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers: Part II - human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Yost, Lisa J; Barber, Timothy R; Gentry, P Robinan; Bock, Michael J; Lyndall, Jennifer L; Capdevielle, Marie C; Slezak, Brian P

2017-08-01

Triclosan, an antimicrobial compound found in consumer products, has been detected in low concentrations in Minnesota municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. This assessment evaluates potential health risks for exposure of adults and children to triclosan in Minnesota surface water, sediments, and fish. Potential exposures via fish consumption are considered for recreational or subsistence-level consumers. This assessment uses two chronic oral toxicity benchmarks, which bracket other available toxicity values. The first benchmark is a lower bound on a benchmark dose associated with a 10% risk (BMDL 10 ) of 47mg per kilogram per day (mg/kg-day) for kidney effects in hamsters. This value was identified as the most sensitive endpoint and species in a review by Rodricks et al. (2010) and is used herein to derive an estimated reference dose (RfD (Rodricks) ) of 0.47mg/kg-day. The second benchmark is a reference dose (RfD) of 0.047mg/kg-day derived from a no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) of 10mg/kg-day for hepatic and hematopoietic effects in mice (Minnesota Department of Health [MDH] 2014). Based on conservative assumptions regarding human exposures to triclosan, calculated risk estimates are far below levels of concern. These estimates are likely to overestimate risks for potential receptors, particularly because sample locations were generally biased towards known discharges (i.e., WWTP effluent). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Geographic risk modeling of childhood cancer relative to county-level crops, hazardous air pollutants and population density characteristics in Texas.

PubMed

Thompson, James A; Carozza, Susan E; Zhu, Li

2008-09-25

Childhood cancer has been linked to a variety of environmental factors, including agricultural activities, industrial pollutants and population mixing, but etiologic studies have often been inconclusive or inconsistent when considering specific cancer types. More specific exposure assessments are needed. It would be helpful to optimize future studies to incorporate knowledge of high-risk locations or geographic risk patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate potential geographic risk patterns in Texas accounting for the possibility that multiple cancers may have similar geographic risks patterns. A spatio-temporal risk modeling approach was used, whereby 19 childhood cancer types were modeled as potentially correlated within county-years. The standard morbidity ratios were modeled as functions of intensive crop production, intensive release of hazardous air pollutants, population density, and rapid population growth. There was supportive evidence for elevated risks for germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping and for hepatic tumors in areas of intense release of hazardous air pollutants. The risk for Hodgkin lymphoma appeared to be reduced in areas of rapidly growing population. Elevated spatial risks included four cancer histotypes, "other" leukemias, Central Nervous System (CNS) embryonal tumors, CNS other gliomas and hepatic tumors with greater than 95% likelihood of elevated risks in at least one county. The Bayesian implementation of the Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive model provided a flexible approach to the spatial modeling of multiple childhood cancer histotypes. The current study identified geographic factors supporting more focused studies of germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping, hepatic cancer near Hazardous Air Pollutant (HAP) release facilities and specific locations with increased risks for CNS embryonal tumors and for "other" leukemias. Further study should be performed to evaluate potentially lower risk for Hodgkin lymphoma and malignant bone tumors in counties with rapidly growing population.

Heavy metals in food, house dust, and water from an e-waste recycling area in South China and the potential risk to human health.

PubMed

Zheng, Jing; Chen, Ke-hui; Yan, Xiao; Chen, She-Jun; Hu, Guo-Cheng; Peng, Xiao-Wu; Yuan, Jian-gang; Mai, Bi-Xian; Yang, Zhong-Yi

2013-10-01

Concentrations of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni) were measured in the foodstuffs, house dust, underground/drinking water, and soil from an electronic waste (e-waste) area in South China. Elevated concentrations of these potentially toxic metals were observed in the samples but not in drinking water. The health risks for metal exposure via food consumption, dust ingestion, and drinking water were evaluated for local residents. For the average residents in the e-waste area, the non-carcinogenic risks arise predominantly from rice (hazard index=3.3), vegetables (2.2), and house dust (1.9) for adults, while the risks for young children are dominated by house dust (15). Drinking water may provide a negligible contribution to risk. However, local residents who use groundwater as a water supply source are at high non-carcinogenic risk. The potential cancer risks from oral intake of Pb are 8×10(-5) and 3×10(-4) for average adults and children, and thus groundwater would have a great potential to induce cancer (5×10(-4) and 1×10(-3)) in a highly exposed population. The results also reveal that the risk from oral exposure is much higher than the risk from inhalation and dermal contact with house dust. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multimethod prediction of child abuse risk in an at-risk sample of male intimate partner violence offenders.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Gracia, Enrique; Lila, Marisol

2016-10-01

The vast majority of research on child abuse potential has concentrated on women demonstrating varying levels of risk of perpetrating physical child abuse. In contrast, the current study considered factors predictive of physical child abuse potential in a group of 70 male intimate partner violence offenders, a group that would represent a likely high risk group. Elements of Social Information Processing theory were evaluated, including pre-existing schemas of empathy, anger, and attitudes approving of parent-child aggression considered as potential moderators of negative attributions of child behavior. To lend methodological rigor, the study also utilized multiple measures and multiple methods, including analog tasks, to predict child abuse risk. Contrary to expectations, findings did not support the role of anger independently predicting child abuse risk in this sample of men. However, preexisting beliefs approving of parent-child aggression, lower empathy, and more negative child behavior attributions independently predicted abuse potential; in addition, greater anger, poorer empathy, and more favorable attitudes toward parent-child aggression also exacerbated men's negative child attributions to further elevate their child abuse risk. Future work is encouraged to consider how factors commonly considered in women parallel or diverge from those observed to elevate child abuse risk in men of varying levels of risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Fiber Composite in Surface Transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, W. T.; Hergenrother, K. M.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of surface transportation to airborne carbon fibers and the national risk associated with the potential use of carbon fibers in the surface transportation system were evaluated. Results show airborne carbon fibers may cause failure rates in surface transportation of less than one per year by 1995. The national risk resulting from the use of carbon fibers in the surface transportation system is discussed.

Potential microbial risk factors related to soil amendments and irrigation water of potato crops.

PubMed

Selma, M V; Allende, A; López-Gálvez, F; Elizaquível, P; Aznar, R; Gil, M I

2007-12-01

This study assesses the potential microbial risk factors related to the use of soil amendments and irrigation water on potato crops, cultivated in one traditional and two intensive farms during two harvest seasons. The natural microbiota and potentially pathogenic micro-organisms were evaluated in the soil amendment, irrigation water, soil and produce. Uncomposted amendments and residual and creek water samples showed the highest microbial counts. The microbial load of potatoes harvested in spring was similar among the tested farms despite the diverse microbial levels of Listeria spp. and faecal coliforms in the potential risk sources. However, differences in total coliform load of potato were found between farms cultivated in the autumn. Immunochromatographic rapid tests and the BAM's reference method (Bacteriological Analytical Manual; AOAC International) were used to detect Escherichia coli O157:H7 from the potential risk sources and produce. Confirmation of the positive results by polymerase chain reaction procedures showed that the immunochromatographic assay was not reliable as it led to false-positive results. The potentially pathogenic micro-organisms of soil amendment, irrigation water and soil samples changed with the harvest seasons and the use of different agricultural practices. However, the microbial load of the produce was not always influenced by these risk sources. Improvements in environmental sample preparation are needed to avoid interferences in the use of immunochromatographic rapid tests. The potential microbial risk sources of fresh produce should be regularly controlled using reliable detection methods to guarantee their microbial safety.

The formulary process from a risk management perspective.

PubMed

Raber, Jack H

2010-06-01

During their evolution over the past 6 decades, hospital formularies have become more than a list of drugs that an institution keeps in stock. Today, an agent under formulary consideration must be examined not only in light of its relative efficacy, safety, and acquisition cost, but consideration must also be given to the potential indirect costs that accompany its use. Federal regulations have, for some drugs, added layers of administrative actions that must be followed to ensure their appropriate use. Examples of this are risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) and duties that may be implied or expressly addressed in the black-box warnings associated with some classes of agents and, in isolated instances, specific drugs within a given class. Regulatory interpretation of these programs and warnings has often led to the expectation that the institution providing the agent will implement effective protocols and procedures to minimize the risk of adverse events to a patient in addition to or in accordance with required programs such as REMS. The consequences for failing to meet this expectation can lead to regulatory sanctions; the potential also exists for liability exposure. Risk management principles apply to all levels of the decision-making process for evaluating a new agent for formulary inclusion or when reevaluating an agent's formulary status. Pharmacists play an important role in mitigating these risks by carefully evaluating every agent from a broader perspective.

Assessing Environmental Risks for Established Invasive Weeds: Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica) and Yellow (L. vulgaris) Toadflax in North America

PubMed Central

Sing, Sharlene E.; Peterson, Robert K. D.

2011-01-01

Environmental risk assessments characterizing potential environmental impacts of exotic weeds are more abundant and comprehensive for potential or new invaders than for widespread and well-established species such as Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow (L. vulgaris Mill.) toadflax. Specific effects evaluated in our assessment of environmental risks posed by yellow and Dalmatian toadflax included competitive displacement of other plant species, reservoirs of plant disease, animal and insect use, animal toxicity, human toxicity and allergenicity, erosion, and wildfire. Effect and exposure uncertainties for potential impacts of toadflax on human and ecological receptors were rated. Using publicly available information we were able to characterize ecological and human health impacts associated with toadflax, and to identify specific data gaps contributing to a high uncertainty of risk. Evidence supporting perceived negative environmental impacts of invasive toadflax was scarce. PMID:21845161

Assessing environmental risks for established invasive weeds: Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica) and yellow (L. vulgaris) toadflax in North America.

PubMed

Sing, Sharlene E; Peterson, Robert K D

2011-07-01

Environmental risk assessments characterizing potential environmental impacts of exotic weeds are more abundant and comprehensive for potential or new invaders than for widespread and well-established species such as Dalmatian (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow (L. vulgaris Mill.) toadflax. Specific effects evaluated in our assessment of environmental risks posed by yellow and Dalmatian toadflax included competitive displacement of other plant species, reservoirs of plant disease, animal and insect use, animal toxicity, human toxicity and allergenicity, erosion, and wildfire. Effect and exposure uncertainties for potential impacts of toadflax on human and ecological receptors were rated. Using publicly available information we were able to characterize ecological and human health impacts associated with toadflax, and to identify specific data gaps contributing to a high uncertainty of risk. Evidence supporting perceived negative environmental impacts of invasive toadflax was scarce.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

The occurrence and potential ecological risk assessment of bauxite mine-impacted water and sediments in Kuantan, Pahang,Malaysia.

PubMed

Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Rahman, Muhammad Syazwan Abd; Madzin, Zafira; Jusop, Shamshuddin; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Ariffin, Mariani; Z, Mohd Syakirin Md

2017-01-01

Recent bauxite mining activities in the vicinity of Kuantan, Pahang, have been associated with apparent environmental quality degradation and have raised environmental concerns among the public. This study was carried out to evaluate the overall ecological impacts on water and sediment quality from the bauxite mining activities. Water and sediment samples were collected at seven sampling locations within the bauxite mining areas between June and December 2015. The water samples were analyzed for water quality index (WQI) and distribution of major and trace element geochemistry. Sediment samples were evaluated based on geochemical indices, i.e., the enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ). Potential ecological risk index was estimated to assess the degree to which sediments of the mine-impacted areas have been contaminated with heavy metals. The results showed that WQIs of some locations were classified as slightly polluted and contained metal contents exceeding the recommended guideline values. The EFs indicated minimal to moderate enrichment of metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Mn, As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co, and Sr) in the sediments. I geo showed slightly to partially polluted sediments with respect to As at some locations. The potential ecological risk index (RI) showed that As posed the highest potential ecological risk with RI of 52.35-60.92 at two locations, while other locations indicated low risk. The findings from this study have demonstrated the impact of recent bauxite mining activities, which might be of importance to the local communities and relevant authorities to initiate immediate rehabilitation phase of the impacted area.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Clinical risk assessment of patients with chronic kidney disease by using clinical data and multivariate models.

PubMed

Chen, Zewei; Zhang, Xin; Zhang, Zhuoyong

2016-12-01

Timely risk assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and proper community-based CKD monitoring are important to prevent patients with potential risk from further kidney injuries. As many symptoms are associated with the progressive development of CKD, evaluating risk of CKD through a set of clinical data of symptoms coupled with multivariate models can be considered as an available method for prevention of CKD and would be useful for community-based CKD monitoring. Three common used multivariate models, i.e., K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA), were used to evaluate risk of 386 patients based on a series of clinical data taken from UCI machine learning repository. Different types of composite data, in which proportional disturbances were added to simulate measurement deviations caused by environment and instrument noises, were also utilized to evaluate the feasibility and robustness of these models in risk assessment of CKD. For the original data set, three mentioned multivariate models can differentiate patients with CKD and non-CKD with the overall accuracies over 93 %. KNN and SVM have better performances than SIMCA has in this study. For the composite data set, SVM model has the best ability to tolerate noise disturbance and thus are more robust than the other two models. Using clinical data set on symptoms coupled with multivariate models has been proved to be feasible approach for assessment of patient with potential CKD risk. SVM model can be used as useful and robust tool in this study.

A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Agapito-Tenfen, Sarah Zanon; Carman, Judy A

2013-05-01

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Some factors influencing the nonexpert's perception and evaluation of environmental risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaughan, E.

Policy makers and decision analysts have been limited somewhat in their ability to predict public reactions to regulatory decisions about hazardous substances or technologies. Most studies of the nonexpert's evaluation of environmental risks have relied on survey data and correlational analyses which preclude the determination of interactive effects, effects that could explain apparent inconsistencies. Three experimental studies were designed to test empirically the effect of six dimensions of environmental risk on judgments of (1) perceived risk, (2) acceptability of risk, (3) subjective probability of negative outcomes due to exposure, and (4) perceived severity of consequences. Factors examined included: (a) familiaritymore » with the terms used to describe a hazard, (b) environmental persistence of a chemical, (c) personal relevance of data used to evaluate cancer-causing potential, (d) personal relevance of possible adverse consequences, (e) perceived control over exposure, and (f) vividness of the exposure pathway. The findings were discussed in terms of their implications for the nonexpert's formulation of risk perceptions, and public policy in the domain of environmental risks.« less

Distribution and risk assessment of metals in water, sediments, and wild fish from Jinjiang River in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Liu, Xueping; Jiang, Jingyan; Yan, Yan; Dai, YuanYuan; Deng, Biao; Ding, Sanglan; Su, Shijun; Sun, Weiyi; Li, Zhi; Gan, Zhiwei

2018-04-01

To evaluate the distribution patterns, degrees of contamination, and ecological risks of 15 metals (Cd, Pb, Sb, Sn, Tl, Mo, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, V, Co, and Se), a total of 26 paired water and sediment samples as well as 7 fish samples were collected in Jinjiang River, Chengdu, China. The metal forms of the sediments were analyzed using BCR three-step sequential extraction procedures, and the metal contents of the samples were determined by ICP-MS. Four environmental indices including the geo-accumulation index, bioconcentration factor, biota-sediment accumulation factor, and the potential ecological risk index were calculated to evaluate pollution level and eco-risk of the metals. Based on the current study, Mn and Cd were preferentially associated with the exchangeable fraction, Cu and Pb were primarily in the reducible fraction, while the other metals were mainly found in the residual fraction. With the exception of Sb and Mo, the BCF values of the metals were greater than 100, especially for Zn, which had the highest BCF value (74200), suggesting that these metals had higher bioconcentration ability. Based on the geo-accumulation index and the potential ecological risk index (R I ) calculated in this study, the middle reaches of Jinjiang River present moderate to severe metal pollution, and moderate to considerable potential ecological risk, especially for the risk of Cd, which should be paid more attention in the future. While non-pollution level and low ecological risk of the metals were found in the upper and lower reaches of Jinjiang River. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the potential carcinogenicity of benzotrichloride (97-07-7). Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-06-01

Benzotrichloride is a probable human carcinogen, classified as weight-of-evidence Group B1 under the EPA Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Evidence on potential carcinogenicity from animal studies is Sufficient, and the evidence from human studies is Limited. The potency factor (F) for benzotrichloride is estimated to be 58.0 (mg/kg/day)(-1), placing it in potency group 2 according to the CAG's methodology for evaluating potential carcinogens. Combining the weight-of-evidence group and the potency group, benzotrichloride is assigned a MEDIUM hazard ranking.

Risk Factors for Hospital-acquired Clostridium difficile Infection Among Pediatric Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Daida, Atsuro; Yoshihara, Hiroki; Inai, Ikuko; Hasegawa, Daisuke; Ishida, Yasushi; Urayama, Kevin Y; Manabe, Atsushi

2017-04-01

Hospital-acquired Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) may cause life-threatening colitis for children with cancer, making identification of risk factors important. We described characteristics of pediatric cancer patients with primary and recurring CDI, and evaluated potential risk factors. Among 189 cancer patients, 51 cases (27%) of CDI and 94 matched controls of cancer patients without CDI were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between CDI and several potential risk factors. Median age of CDI cases was lower (3.3 y; 0.60 to 16.2) than controls (7.7 y; 0.4 to 20.5). Median duration of neutropenia before CDI was longer for CDI cases (10.0 d; 0.0 to 30.0) compared with duration calculated from reference date in controls (6.0 d; 0.0 to 29.0). Multivariable analysis showed that older age was associated with reduced risk (≥7 vs. 0 to 3 y, odds ratio=0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.54), and prolonged neutropenia was associated with increased risk (odds ratio=1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.22). CDI recurred in 26% of cases. Younger age and prolonged neutropenia were risk factors for CDI in children with cancer. Increasing awareness to these risk factors will help to identify opportunities for CDI prevention in cancer patients.

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: a case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations.

PubMed

Nekhay, Olexandr; Arriaza, Manuel; Boerboom, Luc

2009-07-01

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.

PubMed

Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel

2018-02-15

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

My friends have a word for it: Event-related potentials evidence of how social risk inhibits purchase intention.

PubMed

Shang, Qian; Pei, Guanxiong; Jin, Jia

2017-03-16

Social risk refers to the potential disapproval from significant others (especially family or friends), and it is crucial in dissuading consumers from making decisions to purchase. The current study explored the neural process underlying how social risk influenced people's purchase intention. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were employed to investigate the electrophysiological process when subjects evaluated their purchase intention for products with social risk factors. The behavioral data showed that the social risk condition inhibited people's purchase intention compared to the control condition. Neurophysiologically, larger anterior N2 amplitude was induced by the social risk condition in contrast with the control condition. We suggest that this anterior N2 may reflect the cognitive control or conflict monitoring. It may be that the participant has to regulate the conflict between an internal desire to purchase the item and the discordant information obtained from the social risk sentence, which would pressure the participant to not purchase the item in accord with social norms. These findings will be helpful in understanding the neural basis of social risk perception during purchase decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On September 30, 2011, the draft Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. In the new IRIS process (May 2009), introduced by the EPA Administrator, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices will be made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation draft of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking a new health assessment for biphenyl for the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). The outcome of this project will be a Toxicological Review and IRIS and IRIS Summary of biohenyl that will be entered on the IRIS database. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with environmental contaminants. The IRIS database is relied on for the development of risk ass

SELECTING AND EVALUATING NATIVE PLANTS FOR REGION-SPECIFIC PHYTOTOXICITY TESTING

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we evaluated methodology to determine risks to terrestrial native plant species from potential herbicide drift, focusing on 1) selection of native species for testing, 2) growth of these species, and 3) variability in herbicide response among native species and com...

Comparative Evaluation of Alternative Disinfectants for Drinking Water and Wastewater Treatment

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Supply and Water Resources Division (WSWRD) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) initiated a research program to evaluate the performance of various disinfectants that could potentially be used in drink...

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

[Ecological risk evaluation of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai].

PubMed

Tang, Qing-Li; Cheng, Jin-Ping; Gao, Hao-Min; Yao, Lei; Jiang, Zhen-Yi; Wu, Yang; Xie, Cui-Song; Liang, Hai; Wang, He; Pi, Shuai-Shuai; Yu, Zhao-Yi

2013-04-01

In order to discuss the potential ecological risk of heavy metals of the typical dredged mud in Shanghai, the Hakanson potential ecological risks method was used to analyse and assess the potential ecological risks of heavy metals, including Hg, Cd, Cu, Pb, As,Cr and Zn in dredged mud from the following three areas-the dock apron of Huangpu River, the mouth of the Yangtze River and inland waterways. The results showed that the mean values of ecological risk index (Er(i)) of the seven heavy metals are 20.05, 17.49, 8.82, 5.71, 4.68, 1.74 and 1.13, respectively, all of which belonged to the low ecological risk; Cd (one location in inland waterways) and Hg (three locations in the mouth of the Yangtze River and one location in inland waterways) are the most hazardous elements, with the Er(i) > 40, which belonged to the medium ecological risk or the high ecological risk, and other elements belonged to the low ecological risk. From the results of ecological risk indices(ERI) of the heavy metals in Shanghai dredged mud, the risk of the heavy metals belonged to the low ecological risk. The ERI of inland waterways, the mouth of the Yangtze River and the dock apron of the Huangpu River were 81.4, 57.7 and 52.5, respectively, which all belong to the low ecological risk.

Increased Susceptibility to Chemical Toxicity with (Pre-existing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest to risk assessors is the potential for chemicals to interact with pre-existing diseases and aging that may yield cumulative damage, altered chemical response, and increased disease susceptibility. We evaluated the relationships between chemicals and pre-existing disease and identified the type of information needed to evaluate the relationships of interest. This is for presentation at the 54th Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting and ToxExpo 2015.

Screening and ranking framework (SRF) for geologic CO2 storagesite selection on the basis of HSE risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.

2006-11-27

A screening and ranking framework (SRF) has been developedto evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage sites on thebasis of health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risk arising from CO2leakage. The approach is based on the assumption that CO2 leakage risk isdependent on three basic characteristics of a geologic CO2 storage site:(1) the potential for primary containment by the target formation; (2)the potential for secondary containment if the primary formation leaks;and (3) the potential for attenuation and dispersion of leaking CO2 ifthe primary formation leaks and secondary containment fails. Theframework is implemented in a spreadsheet in which users enter numericalscores representingmore » expert opinions or published information along withestimates of uncertainty. Applications to three sites in Californiademonstrate the approach. Refinements and extensions are possible throughthe use of more detailed data or model results in place of propertyproxies.« less

IMMUNOTOXICOGENOMICS: THE POTENTIAL OF GENOMICS TECHNOLOGY IN THE IMMUNOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluation of xenobiotic-induced changes in gene expression as a method to identify and classify potential toxicants is being pursued by industry and regulatory agencies worldwide. A workshop was held at the Research Triangle Park campus of the Environmental Protection Agency to...

Development and Piloting of a Food Safety Audit Tool for the Domestic Environment.

PubMed

Borrusso, Patricia; Quinlan, Jennifer J

2013-12-04

Research suggests that consumers often mishandle food in the home based on survey and observation studies. There is a need for a standardized tool for researchers to objectively evaluate the prevalence and identify the nature of food safety risks in the domestic environment. An audit tool was developed to measure compliance with recommended sanitation, refrigeration and food storage conditions in the domestic kitchen. The tool was piloted by four researchers who independently completed the inspection in 22 homes. Audit tool questions were evaluated for reliability using the κ statistic. Questions that were not sufficiently reliable (κ < 0.5) or did not provide direct evidence of risk were revised or eliminated from the final tool. Piloting the audit tool found good reliability among 18 questions, 6 questions were revised and 28 eliminated, resulting in a final 24 question tool. The audit tool was able to identify potential food safety risks, including evidence of pest infestation (27%), incorrect refrigeration temperature (73%), and lack of hot water (>43 °C, 32%). The audit tool developed here provides an objective measure for researchers to observe and record the most prevalent food safety risks in consumer's kitchens and potentially compare risks among consumers of different demographics.

Safer Chemicals Research

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's Chemical Safety research protects human health and the environment by evaluating chemicals for potential risk and providing tools and guidance for improved chemical production that supports a sustainable environment.

Impact of Body Mass Index and Genetics on Warfarin Major Bleeding Outcomes in a Community Setting.

PubMed

Hart, Ragan; Veenstra, David L; Boudreau, Denise M; Roth, Joshua A

2017-02-01

Several studies have demonstrated an association between body mass index (BMI) and warfarin therapeutic dose, but none evaluated the association of BMI with the clinically important outcome of major bleeding in a community setting. To address this evidence gap, we conducted a case-control study to evaluate the association between BMI and major bleeding risk among patients receiving warfarin. We used a case-control study design to evaluate the association between obesity (BMI >30.0 kg/m 2 ) and major bleeding risk among 265 cases and 305 controls receiving warfarin at Group Health, an integrated healthcare system in Washington State. Multivariate logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders derived from health plan records and a self-report survey. In exploratory analyses we evaluated the interaction between genetic variants potentially associated with warfarin bleeding (CYP2C9, VKORC1, and CYP4F2) and obesity on the risk of major bleeding. Overall, the sample was 55% male, 94% Caucasian, and mean age was 70 years. Cases and controls had an average of 3.4 and 3.7 years of warfarin use, respectively. Obese patients had significantly lower major bleeding risk relative to non-obese patients (odds ratio [OR] 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.92). The OR was 0.56 (95% CI 0.35-0.90) in patients with ≥1 year of warfarin use, and 0.78 (95% CI 0.40-1.54) in patients with <1 year of warfarin use. An exploratory analysis indicated a statistically significant interaction between CYP4F2*3 genetic status and obesity (P = .049), suggesting a protective effect of obesity on the risk of major bleeding among those wild type for CYP4F2*3, but not among variants. Our findings suggest that BMI is an important clinical factor in assessing and managing warfarin therapy. Future studies should confirm the major bleeding associations, including the interaction between obesity and CYP4F2*3 status identified in this study, and evaluate potential mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pesticide Risk Indicators: Unidentified Inert Ingredients Compromise Their Integrity and Utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surgan, Michael; Condon, Madison; Cox, Caroline

2010-04-01

Pesticide Risk Indicators (PRIs) are widely used to evaluate and compare the potential health and environmental risks of pesticide use and to guide pest control policies and practices. They are applied to agricultural, landscape and structural pest management by governmental agencies, private institutions and individuals. PRIs typically assess only the potential risks associated with the active ingredients because, with few exceptions, pesticide manufacturers disclose only the identity of the active ingredients which generally comprise only a minor portion of pesticide products. We show that when inert ingredients are identified and assessed by the same process as the active ingredient, the product specific risk can be much greater than that calculated for the active ingredient alone. To maintain transparency in risk assessment, all those who develop and apply PRIs or make decisions based on their output, should clearly disclose and discuss the limitations of the method.

Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M

2010-04-01

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

Forecasting Exposure in Order to Use High Throughput Hazard Data in a Risk-based Context (WC9)

EPA Science Inventory

The ToxCast program and Tox21 consortium have evaluated over 8000 chemicals using in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) to identify potential hazards. Complementary exposure science needed to assess risk, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s ExpoCast initiative...

The Perceived Urgency of Tactile Patterns During Dismounted Soldier Movements

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

this evaluation are typical of the everyday risks encountered while working out of doors. There is a risk of tick bites and the potential for Lyme ... disease . You will be asked to inspect yourself frequently for ticks. Flying insects at the site are also a concern. You are encouraged to use

Temporal changes in biological responses and uncertainty in assessing risks of endocrine-disrupting chemicals: Insights from intensive time-course studies with fish

EPA Science Inventory

Most toxicological testing focuses on defining concentration/dose-response relationships, with little consideration given to temporal aspects of the expression of chemical effects. Yet, both variablesdose and timeare critical to robust evaluations of potential risks. Over the p...

Choline and its metabolites are differently associated with cardiometabolic risk factors, cardiovascular history and MRI documented cerebrovascular disease in older adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: There is a potential role of choline in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease through its involvement in lipid and one-carbon metabolism. Objective: We evaluated the associations of plasma choline and choline-related compounds with cardiometabolic risk factors, history of cardiovas...

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Applicability of drinking water treatment residue for lake restoration in relation to metal/metalloid risk assessment

PubMed Central

Yuan, Nannan; Wang, Changhui; Pei, Yuansheng; Jiang, Helong

2016-01-01

Drinking water treatment residue (DWTR), a byproduct generated during potable water production, exhibits a high potential for recycling to control eutrophication. However, this beneficial recycling is hampered by unclear metal/metalloid pollution risks related to DWTR. In this study, the pollution risks of Al, As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn due to DWTR application were first evaluated for lake water based on human health risk assessment models and comparison of regulatory standards. The risks of DWTR were also evaluated for sediments on the basis of toxicity characteristics leaching procedure and fractionation in relation to risk assessment code. Variations in the biological behaviors of metal/metalloid in sediments caused by DWTR were assessed using Chironomus plumosus larvae and Hydrilla verticillata. Kinetic luminescent bacteria test (using Aliivibrio fischeri) was conducted to analyze the possibility of acute and chronic detrimental effects of sediment with DWTR application. According to the obtained results, we identify a potential undesirable effect of DWTR related to Fe and Mn (typically under anaerobic conditions); roughly present a dosage threshold calculation model; and recommend a procedure for DWTR prescreening to ensure safe application. Overall, managed DWTR application is necessary for successful eutrophication control. PMID:27929083

Applicability of drinking water treatment residue for lake restoration in relation to metal/metalloid risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Nannan; Wang, Changhui; Pei, Yuansheng; Jiang, Helong

2016-12-01

Drinking water treatment residue (DWTR), a byproduct generated during potable water production, exhibits a high potential for recycling to control eutrophication. However, this beneficial recycling is hampered by unclear metal/metalloid pollution risks related to DWTR. In this study, the pollution risks of Al, As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn due to DWTR application were first evaluated for lake water based on human health risk assessment models and comparison of regulatory standards. The risks of DWTR were also evaluated for sediments on the basis of toxicity characteristics leaching procedure and fractionation in relation to risk assessment code. Variations in the biological behaviors of metal/metalloid in sediments caused by DWTR were assessed using Chironomus plumosus larvae and Hydrilla verticillata. Kinetic luminescent bacteria test (using Aliivibrio fischeri) was conducted to analyze the possibility of acute and chronic detrimental effects of sediment with DWTR application. According to the obtained results, we identify a potential undesirable effect of DWTR related to Fe and Mn (typically under anaerobic conditions); roughly present a dosage threshold calculation model; and recommend a procedure for DWTR prescreening to ensure safe application. Overall, managed DWTR application is necessary for successful eutrophication control.

Smarten

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, C.; Bennett, E.; Chappell, M.; Steevens, J.; Depledge, M.; Goss, G.; Goudey, S.; Kaczmar, S.; O'Brien, N.; Picado, A.; Ramadan, A. B.

Traditional risk assessment procedures are inadequate for predicting the ecological risks associated with the release of nanomaterials (NM) into the environment. The root of the problem lies in an inadequate application of solid phase chemical principles (e.g. particle size, shape, functionality) for the risk assessment of NMs. Thus, the "solubility" paradigm used to evaluate the risks associated with other classes of contaminants must be replaced by a "dispersivity" paradigm for evaluating the risks associated with NM. The pace of development of NM will exceed the capacity to conduct adequate risk assessments using current methods and approaches. Each NM product will be available in a variety of size classes and with different surface functionalizations; probably requiring multiple risk assessments for each NM. The "SMARTEN" approach to risk assessment involves having risk assessors play a more proactive role in evaluating all aspects of the NM life cycle and in making decisions to develop lower risk NM products. Improved problem formulation could come from considering the chemical, physical and biological properties of NMs. New effects assessment techniques are needed to evaluate cellular binding and uptake potential, such as biological assays for binding to macromolecules or organelles, phagocytic activity, and active/passive uptake processes. Tests should be developed to evaluate biological effects with multiple species across a range of trophic levels. Despite our best efforts to assess the risks associated with NM, previous experience indicates that some NM products will enter the environment and cause biological effects. Therefore, risk assessors should support programs for reconnaissance and surveillance to detect the impacts of NM before irreversible damage occurs. New analytical tools are needed for surveillance, including sensors for detecting NMs, passive sampling systems, and improved methods for separation and characterization of NMs in environmental matrices, as well as biomarker techniques to evaluate exposure to NMs. Risk assessors should use this information to refine data quality, determine future risk assessment objectives and to communicate interim conclusions to a wide group of stakeholders.1

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

An ecological risk assessment of heavy metal contamination in the surface sediments of Bosten Lake, northwest China.

PubMed

Mamat, Zulpiya; Haximu, Sadiguli; Zhang, Zhao Yong; Aji, Rouzi

2016-04-01

Bosten Lake, a typical rump lake in an oasis in northwest China, was chosen to evaluate the distribution, sources, pollution status, and potential ecological risk of heavy metals. Sediment samples were collected from the lake, and results showed that the values of the eight heavy metals all fell within the Second Soil National Standard, while the average and maximum values of the metals were higher than the background values of the study. Multivariate statistical analysis showed that sediment concentrations of Cd, Pb, Hg, and Zn were mainly influenced by man sources. In comparison, Cu, Ni, Cr, and As were primarily natural in origin. Enrichment factor analysis (EF) and the geo-accumulation index evaluation method (I geo) showed that Cd, Hg, and Pb fell under low and partial serious pollution levels, while Zn, As, Cr, Ni, and Cu mainly were characterized under no pollution and low pollution levels. The potential ecological hazards index (RI) showed that among the eight heavy metals, Pb, Hg, and Cd posed the highest potential ecological risk, with potential ecological hazards indices (RI) of 29.06, 27.71, and 21.54 %, respectively. These findings demonstrated that recent economic development in the area of the basin has led to heavy metal accumulation in the surface sediments of the lake.

Bioinformatics analysis to assess potential risks of allergenicity and toxicity of HRAP and PFLP proteins in genetically modified bananas resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease.

PubMed

Jin, Yuan; Goodman, Richard E; Tetteh, Afua O; Lu, Mei; Tripathi, Leena

2017-11-01

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) disease threatens banana production and food security throughout East Africa. Natural resistance is lacking among common cultivars. Genetically modified (GM) bananas resistant to BXW disease were developed by inserting the hypersensitive response-assisting protein (Hrap) or/and the plant ferredoxin-like protein (Pflp) gene(s) from sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum). Several of these GM banana events showed 100% resistance to BXW disease under field conditions in Uganda. The current study evaluated the potential allergenicity and toxicity of the expressed proteins HRAP and PFLP based on evaluation of published information on the history of safe use of the natural source of the proteins as well as established bioinformatics sequence comparison methods to known allergens (www.AllergenOnline.org and NCBI Protein) and toxins (NCBI Protein). The results did not identify potential risks of allergy and toxicity to either HRAP or PFLP proteins expressed in the GM bananas that might suggest potential health risks to humans. We recognize that additional tests including stability of these proteins in pepsin assay, nutrient analysis and possibly an acute rodent toxicity assay may be required by national regulatory authorities. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer

2005-09-19

While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. Inmore » this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.« less

Potential chemical and microbiological risks on human health from urban wastewater reuse in agriculture. Case study of wastewater effluents in Spain.

PubMed

Muñoz, Ivan; Tomàs, Núria; Mas, Jordi; García-Reyes, Juan Fracisco; Molina-Díaz, Antonio; Fernández-Alba, Amadeo R

2010-05-01

Potential health risks derived from wastewater reuse in agriculture have been evaluated with Risk Assessment modelling techniques, in a case study involving the effluents of two Spanish wastewater treatment plants. One of the plants applies primary and secondary treatment, and the other one applies an additional tertiary treatment. Health risks were assessed on the basis of ingesting contaminated food, due to exposure to: (i) 22 chemical pollutants, namely pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), and priority pollutants included in the European Framework Directive, and (ii) microorganisms, namely enterovirus. Chemical Risk Assessment has been carried out following the European Commission's technical guidelines, while risks from exposure to viruses have been evaluated by means of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, assuming a virus to coliform ratio of 1:10(5). The results of the chemical assessment show that there is a margin of safety above 100 for all substances, with the exception of gemfibrozil, for which the mean margin of safety (MOS) is above 100, but the lower bound of MOS with a 95 % confidence interval lies in the 3-4 range. A MOS under 100 was also found for 2,3,7,8-TCDD in one of the effluents. The assessment of risks from viruses shows a very low probability of infection. The overall results show that risks are lower for the plant applying tertiary treatment, especially concerning microbiological parameters.

Potential risk factors for dental caries in Type 2 diabetic patients.

PubMed

Almusawi, M A; Gosadi, I; Abidia, R; Almasawi, M; Khan, H A

2018-05-11

Diabetic patients are known to be at higher risk for dental caries. However, the role of potential risk factors such as blood glucose, salivary glucose and glycaemic control in the occurrence of dental caries in type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not clearly understood so far, and therefore, it was evaluated in this study. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 100 T2D patients from Saudi Arabia. The caries risk assessment was evaluated using the guidelines of Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA). Cariogenic bacteria load in saliva was determined by a chair-side test kit. The levels of fasting blood glucose (FBG), salivary glucose and HbA1c were analysed. Majority of the patients had dental caries (84%), exposed root surfaces (92%) and heavy plaque (73%), whereas 66% of patients suffered from xerostomia. The frequency of patients with high counts of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacilli (LB) were 78% and 42%, respectively. There were significant associations between dental caries risk and FBG, HbA1c and salivary glucose. After categorizing the patients into 3 categories of glycaemic control, we observed a significant association between glycaemic control and dental caries risk. Type 2 diabetes patients are at high risk for dental caries, which is directly associated with FBG, HbA1c and salivary glucose. This is the first study measuring dental caries and its risk factors in T2D patients from Saudi Arabia. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cocoa Polyphenols: Evidence from Epidemiological Studies.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Chisa

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence suggests potential preventive effects of chocolate/cocoa on the risk of cardio vascular disease (CVD). However, cocoa products also contain high levels of sugar and fat, which increase CVD risk factors. Even, the identity of the substance in chocolate/cocoa that has a favorable effect on CVD and CVD risk factors remains unclear, growing evidence from experimental studies suggests that cocoa polyphenols might be a major contributor to cardiovascular-protective effects. However, epidemiological studies, which are necessary to evaluate an association between the risk of CVD and cocoa polyphenol, remain sparse. We will discuss recent evidence regarding the association between cocoa polyphenol consumption and the risks of CVD and its risk factors by reviewing recent epidemiological studies. We shall also provide some guidance for patient counseling and will discuss the public health implications for recommending cocoa polyphenol consumption to prevent CVD. Epidemiological studies evaluating the association between cocoa polyphenol itself and the risk of CVD are sparse. However, evidence from limited epidemiological studies suggests that cocoa polyphenol consumption may lower the risk of CVD. Given the potential adverse effects of the consumption of cocoa products with high fat and sugar and the fact that the most appropriate dose of cocoa polyphenol for cardio-protective effects has not yet been established, health care providers should remain cautious about recommending cocoa/cocoa polyphenol consumption to their patients to reduce the risk of CVD, taking the characteristics of individual patients into careful consideration. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Field-based evaluation of a male-specific (F+) RNA coliphage concentration method

EPA Science Inventory

Fecal contamination of water poses a significant risk to public health due to the potential presence of pathogens, including enteric viruses. Thus, sensitive, reliable and easy to use methods for the detection of microorganisms are needed to evaluate water quality. In this stud...

[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].

PubMed

Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

2011-01-01

The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease).

Predicting Parent-Child Aggression Risk: Cognitive Factors and Their Interaction With Anger.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M

2018-02-01

Several cognitive elements have previously been proposed to elevate risk for physical child abuse. To predict parent-child aggression risk, the current study evaluated the role of approval of parent-child aggression, perceptions of children as poorly behaved, and discipline attributions. Several dimensions of attributions specifically tied to parents' discipline practices were targeted. In addition, anger experienced during discipline episodes was considered a potential moderator of these cognitive processes. Using a largely multiple-indicator approach, a sample of 110 mothers reported on these cognitive and affective aspects that may occur when disciplining their children as well as responding to measures of parent-child aggression risk. Findings suggest that greater approval of parent-child aggression, negative perceptions of their child's behavior, and discipline attributions independently predicted parent-child aggression risk, with anger significantly interacting with mothers' perception of their child as more poorly behaved to exacerbate their parent-child aggression risk. Of the discipline attribution dimensions evaluated, mothers' sense of external locus of control and believing their child deserved their discipline were related to increase parent-child aggression risk. Future work is encouraged to comprehensively evaluate how cognitive and affective components contribute and interact to increase risk for parent-child aggression.

Evaluation and Enhancement of Calibration in the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.

PubMed

Liu, Yaoming; Cohen, Mark E; Hall, Bruce L; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

2016-08-01

The American College of Surgeon (ACS) NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator has been widely adopted as a decision aid and informed consent tool by surgeons and patients. Previous evaluations showed excellent discrimination and combined discrimination and calibration, but model calibration alone, and potential benefits of recalibration, were not explored. Because lack of calibration can lead to systematic errors in assessing surgical risk, our objective was to assess calibration and determine whether spline-based adjustments could improve it. We evaluated Surgical Risk Calculator model calibration, as well as discrimination, for each of 11 outcomes modeled from nearly 3 million patients (2010 to 2014). Using independent random subsets of data, we evaluated model performance for the Development (60% of records), Validation (20%), and Test (20%) datasets, where prediction equations from the Development dataset were recalibrated using restricted cubic splines estimated from the Validation dataset. We also evaluated performance on data subsets composed of higher-risk operations. The nonrecalibrated Surgical Risk Calculator performed well, but there was a slight tendency for predicted risk to be overestimated for lowest- and highest-risk patients and underestimated for moderate-risk patients. After recalibration, this distortion was eliminated, and p values for miscalibration were most often nonsignificant. Calibration was also excellent for subsets of higher-risk operations, though observed calibration was reduced due to instability associated with smaller sample sizes. Performance of NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator models was shown to be excellent and improved with recalibration. Surgeons and patients can rely on the calculator to provide accurate estimates of surgical risk. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uranium mining wastes: The use of the Fish Embryo Acute Toxicity Test (FET) test to evaluate toxicity and risk of environmental discharge.

PubMed

Lourenço, J; Marques, S; Carvalho, F P; Oliveira, J; Malta, M; Santos, M; Gonçalves, F; Pereira, R; Mendo, S

2017-12-15

Active and abandoned uranium mining sites often create environmentally problematic situations, since they cause the contamination of all environmental matrices (air, soil and water) with stable metals and radionuclides. Due to their cytotoxic, genotoxic and teratogenic properties, the exposure to these contaminants may cause several harmful effects in living organisms. The Fish Embryo Acute Toxicity Test (FET) test was employed to evaluate the genotoxic and teratogenic potential of mine liquid effluents and sludge elutriates from a deactivated uranium mine. The aims were: a) to determine the risk of discharge of such wastes in the environment; b) the effectiveness of the chemical treatment applied to the uranium mine water, which is a standard procedure generally applied to liquid effluents from uranium mines and mills, to reduce its toxicological potential; c) the suitability of the FET test for the evaluation the toxicity of such wastes and the added value of including the evaluation of genotoxicity. Results showed that through the FET test it was possible to determine that both elutriates and effluents are genotoxic and also that the mine effluent is teratogenic at low concentrations. Additionally, liquid effluents and sludge elutriates affect other parameters namely, growth and hatching and that water pH alone played an important role in the hatching process. The inclusion of genotoxicity evaluation in the FET test was crucial to prevent the underestimation of the risks posed by some of the tested effluents/elutriates. Finally, it was possible to conclude that care should be taken when using benchmark values calculated for specific stressors to evaluate the risk posed by uranium mining wastes to freshwater ecosystems, due to their chemical complexity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Renewable Cornstarch/biochar Fillers as Potential Substitutes for Carbon Black in SBR Composites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The continually growing demand for fossil fuels coupled with the potential risk of relying on foreign sources for these fuels strengthens the need to find renewable substitutes for petroleum products. Carbon black is a petroleum product that dominates the rubber composite filler market. Agricultur...

Acute inhalation of 2,2,4-trimethylpentane alters visual evoked potentials and signal detection behaviour of rats.

EPA Science Inventory

The volatile organic compound 2,2,4-trimethylpentane (TMP, “isooctane”) is a primary constituent of gasoline for which the current health effects data are insufficient to permit EPA to conduct a risk assessment. We evaluated potential neurological impairment from acute inhalati...

Evaluation of military field-water quality: Volume 9, Data for assessing health risks in potential theaters of operation for US military forces: (Final report)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, J.I.; Layton, D.W.

1988-02-01

Data are presented in this volume for assessing the health risks in populations of military personnel that could result as a consequence of exposure to field waters containing constituents or infectious organisms of military concern, which are from natural and anthropogenic sources, at levels above those recommended as field-water-quality standards (i.e., above safe levels). Turbidity and color are the physical properties that are of military concern in field water. The other constituents that are of military concern in field water are (1) total dissolved solids, (2) chloride, (3) magnesium, (4) sulfate, (5) arsenic, (6) cyanide, (7) the pesticide lindane, andmore » (8) metabolites of algae and associated bacteria. Bacteria, viruses, and parasites (e.g., protozoa and helminths) are categories of water-related infectious organisms that are of military concern. Figures were developed from dose-response data to enable military risk managers to quickly assess the potential performance-degrading effects in personnel exposed to a measured concentration of a particular constituent in field water. The general physical, chemical, and biological quality of field waters in geographic regions worldwide, representing potential theaters of operation for U.S. military forces, also are evaluated. This analysis is based on available water-quality monitoring data and indicators of likely water-quality conditions (e.g., geohydrology, climate, sanitation, industrialization, etc.). Accompanying our evaluation are maps and tables alerting military planners and risk managers to the physical, chemical, or biological quality of field water that can be expected generally in geographic regions of concern.« less

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

PubMed

Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

2014-03-01

To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial distributions, fractionation characteristics, and ecological risk assessment of trace elements in sediments of Chaohu Lake, a large eutrophic freshwater lake in eastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Liu, Guijian; Zhou, Chuncai; Liu, Rongqiong; Xi, Shanshan; Da, Chunnian; Liu, Fei

2018-01-01

The concentrations, spatial distribution, fractionation characteristics, and potential ecological risks of trace elements (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co) in the surface sediment samples collected from 32 sites in Chaohu Lake were investigated. The improved BCR sequential extraction procedure was applied to analyze the chemical forms of trace elements in sediments. The enrichment factor (EF), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), potential ecological risk index (PERI), and risk assessment code (RAC) were employed to evaluate the pollution levels and the potential ecological risks. The results found that the concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co in the surface sediments were 78.59, 36.91, 161.84, 98.87, 38.92, and 10.09 mg kg -1 , respectively. The lower concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Ni were almost found in the middle part of the lake, while Co increased from the western toward the eastern parts of the lake. Cr, Ni, Co, and Zn predominantly existed in the residual fractions, with the average values of 76.35, 59.22, 45.60, and 44.30%, respectively. Cu and Pb were mainly combined with Fe/Mn oxides in reducible fraction, with the average values of 66.4 and 69.1%, respectively. The pollution levels were different among the selected elements. Cu had the highest potential ecological risk, while Cr had the lowest potential ecological risk.

Potentially toxic elements in soil of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Tribal areas, Pakistan: evaluation for human and ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Saddique, Umar; Muhammad, Said; Tariq, Mohsin; Zhang, Hua; Arif, Mohammad; Jadoon, Ishtiaq A K; Khattak, Nimat Ullah

2018-03-22

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) contaminations in the soil ecosystem are considered as extremely hazardous due to toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulative nature. Therefore, this study was aimed to summarize the results of published PTEs in soil of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas, Pakistan. Results were evaluated for the pollution quantification factors, including contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), ecological risk index (ERI) and human health risk assessment. The highest CF (797) and PLI (7.35) values were observed for Fe and ERI (857) values for Cd. Soil PTEs concentrations were used to calculate the human exposure for the risk assessment, including chronic or non-carcinogenic risks such as the hazard quotient (HQ) and carcinogenic or cancer risk (CR). The values of HQ were > 1 for the Cd, Co and Cr in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas. Tribal areas showed higher values of ERI, HQ, and CR as compared to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that were attributed to the mining activities, weathering and erosion of mafic and ultramafic bedrocks hosting ophiolites. This study strongly recommends that best control measures need to be taken for soil PTEs with the intent to alleviate any continuing potential threat to the human health, property and environment, which otherwise could enter ecosystem and ultimately the living beings. Further studies are recommended to combat the soil PTEs concentrations and toxicity in the Tribal areas for a best picture of understanding the element effects on human, and environment can be achieved that will lead to a sustainable ecological harmony.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery.

PubMed

Saglam, Bülent; Bilgili, Ertugrul; Dincdurmaz, Bahar; Kadiogulari, Ali Ihsan; Kücük, Ömer

2008-06-20

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Prevalence, potential risk factors for development and symptoms related to the presence of uterine niches following Cesarean section: systematic review.

PubMed

Bij de Vaate, A J M; van der Voet, L F; Naji, O; Witmer, M; Veersema, S; Brölmann, H A M; Bourne, T; Huirne, J A F

2014-04-01

To review systematically the medical literature reporting on the prevalence of a niche at the site of a Cesarean section (CS) scar using various diagnostic methods, on potential risk factors for the development of a niche and on niche-related gynecological symptoms in non-pregnant women. The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. All types of clinical study reporting on the prevalence, risk factors and/or symptoms of a niche in non-pregnant women with a history of CS were included, apart from case reports and case series. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion in the review. A wide range in the prevalence of a niche was found. Using contrast-enhanced sonohysterography in a random population of women with a history of CS, the prevalence was found to vary between 56% and 84%. Nine studies reported on risk factors and each study evaluated different factors, which made it difficult to compare studies. Risk factors could be classified into four categories: those related to closure technique, to development of the lower uterine segment or location of the incision or to wound healing, and miscellaneous factors. Probable risk factors are single-layer myometrium closure, multiple CSs and uterine retroflexion. Six out of eight studies that evaluated niche-related symptoms described an association between the presence of a niche and postmenstrual spotting. The reported prevalence of a niche in non-pregnant women varies depending on the method of detection, the criteria used to define a niche and the study population. Potential risk factors can be categorized into four main categories, which may be useful for future research and meta-analyses. The predominant symptom associated with a niche is postmenstrual spotting. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

PubMed

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infectious disease risks in xenotransplantation.

PubMed

Fishman, Jay A

2018-03-07

Hurdles exist to clinical xenotransplantation including potential infectious transmission from nonhuman species to xenograft recipients. In anticipation of clinical trials of xenotransplantation, the associated infectious risks have been investigated. Swine and immunocompromised humans share some potential pathogens. Swine herpesviruses including porcine cytomegalovirus (PCMV) and porcine lymphotropic herpesvirus (PLHV) are largely species-specific and do not, generally, infect human cells. Human cellular receptors exist for porcine endogenous retrovirus (PERV), which infects certain human-derived cell lines in vitro. PERV-inactivated pigs have been produced recently. Human infection due to PERV has not been described. A screening paradigm can be applied to exclude potential human pathogens from "designated pathogen free" breeding colonies. Various microbiological assays have been developed for screening and diagnosis including antibody-based tests and qualitative and quantitative molecular assays for viruses. Additional assays may be required to diagnose pig-specific organisms in human xenograft recipients. Significant progress has been made in the evaluation of the potential infectious risks of clinical xenotransplantation. Infectious risk would be amplified by intensive immunosuppression. The available data suggest that risks of xenotransplant-associated recipient infection are manageable and that clinical trials can be performed safely. Possible infectious risks of xenotransplantation to the community at large are undefined but merit consideration. © 2018 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Development of an Alert System to Detect Drug Interactions with Herbal Supplements using Medical Record Data.

PubMed

Archer, Melissa; Proulx, Joshua; Shane-McWhorter, Laura; Bray, Bruce E; Zeng-Treitler, Qing

2014-01-01

While potential medication-to-medication interaction alerting engines exist in many clinical applications, few systems exist to automatically alert on potential medication to herbal supplement interactions. We have developed a preliminary knowledge base and rules alerting engine that detects 259 potential interactions between 9 supplements, 62 cardiac medications, and 19 drug classes. The rules engine takes into consideration 12 patient risk factors and 30 interaction warning signs to help determine which of three different alert levels to categorize each potential interaction. A formative evaluation was conducted with two clinicians to set initial thresholds for each alert level. Additional work is planned add more supplement interactions, risk factors, and warning signs as well as to continue to set and adjust the inputs and thresholds for each potential interaction.

Instruments for Assessing Risk of Bias and Other Methodological Criteria of Published Animal Studies: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Krauth, David; Woodruff, Tracey J.

2013-01-01

Background: Results from animal toxicology studies are critical to evaluating the potential harm from exposure to environmental chemicals or the safety of drugs prior to human testing. However, there is significant debate about how to evaluate the methodology and potential biases of the animal studies. There is no agreed-upon approach, and a systematic evaluation of current best practices is lacking. Objective: We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate instruments for assessing the risk of bias and/or other methodological criteria of animal studies. Method: We searched Medline (January 1966–November 2011) to identify all relevant articles. We extracted data on risk of bias criteria (e.g., randomization, blinding, allocation concealment) and other study design features included in each assessment instrument. Discussion: Thirty distinct instruments were identified, with the total number of assessed risk of bias, methodological, and/or reporting criteria ranging from 2 to 25. The most common criteria assessed were randomization (25/30, 83%), investigator blinding (23/30, 77%), and sample size calculation (18/30, 60%). In general, authors failed to empirically justify why these or other criteria were included. Nearly all (28/30, 93%) of the instruments have not been rigorously tested for validity or reliability. Conclusion: Our review highlights a number of risk of bias assessment criteria that have been empirically tested for animal research, including randomization, concealment of allocation, blinding, and accounting for all animals. In addition, there is a need for empirically testing additional methodological criteria and assessing the validity and reliability of a standard risk of bias assessment instrument. Citation: Krauth D, Woodruff TJ, Bero L. 2013. Instruments for assessing risk of bias and other methodological criteria of published animal studies: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 121:985–992 (2013); http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206389 PMID:23771496

Institutional facilitators and barriers to local public health preparedness planning for vulnerable and at-risk populations.

PubMed

Bevc, Christine A; Simon, Matthew C; Montoya, Tanya A; Horney, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Numerous institutional facilitators and barriers to preparedness planning exist at the local level for vulnerable and at-risk populations. Findings of this evaluation study contribute to ongoing practice-based efforts to improve response services and address public health preparedness planning and training as they relate to vulnerable and at-risk populations. From January 2012 through June 2013, we conducted a multilevel, mixed-methods evaluation study of the North Carolina Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center's Vulnerable & At-Risk Populations Resource Guide, an online tool to aid local health departments' (LHDs') preparedness planning efforts. We examined planning practices across multiple local, regional, and state jurisdictions utilizing user data, follow-up surveys, and secondary data. To identify potential incongruities in planning, we compared respondents' reported populations of interest with corresponding census data to determine whether or not there were differences in planning priorities. We used data collected from evaluation surveys to identify key institutional facilitators and barriers associated with planning for at-risk populations, including challenges to conducting assessments and lack of resources. Results identified both barriers within institutional culture and disconnects between planning priorities and evidence-based identification of vulnerable and at-risk populations, including variation in the planning process, partnerships, and perceptions. Our results highlight the important role of LHDs in preparedness planning and the potential implications associated with organizational and bureaucratic impediments to planning implementation. A more in-depth understanding of the relationships among public institutions and the levels of preparedness that contribute to the conditions and processes that generate vulnerability is needed.

Common genetic variants in metabolism and detoxification pathways and the risk of papillary thyroid cancer

PubMed Central

Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Neta, Gila; Brenner, Alina V; Hutchinson, Amy; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Sturgis, Erich M; Xu, Li; Wheeler, William; Doody, Michele M; Chanock, Stephen J; Sigurdson, Alice J

2012-01-01

Relationships are unclear between polymorphisms in genes involved in metabolism and detoxification of various chemicals and papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) risk as well as their potential modification by alcohol or tobacco intake. We evaluated associations between 1647 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 132 candidate genes/regions involved in metabolism of exogenous and endogenous compounds (Phase I/II, oxidative stress, and metal binding pathways) and PTC risk in 344 PTC cases and 452 controls. For 15 selected regions and their respective SNPs, we also assessed interaction with alcohol and tobacco use. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the main effect of SNPs (Ptrend) and interaction with alcohol/tobacco intake. Gene- and pathway-level associations and interactions (Pgene interaction) were evaluated by combining Ptrend values using the adaptive rank-truncated product method. While we found associations between PTC risk and nine SNPs (Ptrend≤0.01) and seven genes/regions (Pregion<0.05), none remained significant after correction for the false discovery rate. We found a significant interaction between UGT2B7 and NAT1 genes and alcohol intake (Pgene interaction=0.01 and 0.02 respectively) and between the CYP26B1 gene and tobacco intake (Pgene interaction=0.02). Our results are suggestive of interaction between the genetic polymorphisms in several detoxification genes and alcohol or tobacco intake on risk of PTC. Larger studies with improved exposure assessment should address potential modification of PTC risk by alcohol and tobacco intake to confirm or refute our findings. PMID:22389382

Evaluation and development of tools to quantify the impacts of roadside vegetation barriers on near-road air quality

EPA Science Inventory

Regulatory and urban planning programs require an accurate evaluation of how traffic emissions transport and disperse from roads to fully determine exposures and health risks. Roadside vegetation barriers have shown the potential to reduce near-road air pollution concentrations; ...

Evaluating the Zebrafish Embryo Toxicity Test for Pesticide Hazard Screening

EPA Science Inventory

Given the numerous chemicals used in society, it is critical to develop tools for accurate and efficient evaluation of potential risks to human and ecological receptors. Fish embryo acute toxicity tests are 1 tool that has been shown to be highly predictive of standard, more reso...

NTP-CERHR Expert Panel Report on the Reproductive and Developmental Toxicity of Bisphenol A

EPA Science Inventory

The National Toxicology Program (NTP)1 established the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) in June 1998. The purpose of the CERHR is to provide timely, unbiased, scientifically sound evaluations of the potential for adverse effects on reproduction...

Law-Related Education and Delinquency Prevention. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrini, Michelle

Evidence from research/evaluation studies indicates that the principles underlying law-related education (LRE) programs address the factors that put youth at risk for delinquency. Although rigorous evaluations of LRE are limited, what evidence exists suggests that LRE has potential to prevent delinquency and problem behavior. This digest…

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

PubMed

Filippopulos, Filipp M; Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N

2017-01-01

To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

A Prognostic Indicator for Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure.

PubMed

Snow, Richard; Vogel, Karen; Vanderhoff, Bruce; Kelch, Benjamin P; Ferris, Frank D

2016-12-01

Current methods for identifying patients at risk of dying within six months suffer from clinician biases resulting in underestimation of this risk. As a result, patients who are potentially eligible for hospice and palliative care services frequently do not benefit from these services until they are very close to the end of their lives. To develop a prospective prognostic indicator based on actual survival within Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims data that identifies patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) who are at risk of six-month mortality. CMS claims data from January 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 were reviewed to find the first hospitalization for CHF patients with episode of care diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) 291, 292, and 293. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to determine the associations between demographic and clinical factors and six-month mortality. The resulting model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration. The resulting prospective prognostic model demonstrated fair discrimination with an ROC of 0.71 and good calibration with a Hosmer-Lemshow statistic of 0.98. Across all DRGs, 5% of discharged patients had a six-month mortality risk of greater than 50%. This prospective approach appears to provide a method to identify patients with CHF who would potentially benefit from a clinical evaluation for referral to hospice care or for a palliative care consult due to high predicted risk of dying within 180 days after discharge from a hospital. This approach can provide a model to match at-risk patients with evidenced-based care in a more consistent manner. This method of identifying patients at risk needs further prospective evaluation to see if it has value for clinicians, increases referrals to hospice and palliative care services, and benefits patients and families.

Potential exposures and risks from beryllium-containing products.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; Florig, H Keith

2002-10-01

Beryllium is the strongest of the lightweight metals. Used primarily in military applications prior to the end of the Cold War, beryllium is finding new applications in many commercial products, including computers, telecommunication equipment, and consumer and automotive electronics. The use of beryllium in nondefense consumer applications is of concern because beryllium is toxic. Inhalation of beryllium dust or vapor causes a chronic lung disease in some individuals at concentrations as low as 0.01 microg/m3 in air. As beryllium enters wider commerce, it is prudent to ask what risks this might present to the general public and to workers downstream of the beryllium materials industry. We address this question by evaluating the potential for beryllium exposure from the manufacturing, use, recycle, and disposal of beryllium-containing products. Combining a market study with a qualitative exposure analysis, we determine which beryllium applications and life cycle phases have the largest exposure potential. Our analysis suggests that use and maintenance of the most common types of beryllium-containing products do not result in any obvious exposures of concern, and that maintenance activities result in greater exposures than product use. Product disposal has potential to present significant individual risks, but uncertainties concerning current and future routes of product disposal make it difficult to be definitive. Overall, additional exposure and dose-response data are needed to evaluate both the health significance of many exposure scenarios, and the adequacy of existing regulations to protect workers and the public. Although public exposures to beryllium and public awareness and concern regarding beryllium risks are currently low, beryllium risks have psychometric qualities that may lead to rapidly heightened public concern.

Risk of breast cancer among enlisted Army women occupationally exposed to volatile organic compounds.

PubMed

Rennix, Christopher P; Quinn, Margaret M; Amoroso, Paul J; Eisen, Ellen A; Wegman, David H

2005-09-01

The military presents a unique opportunity to study the incidence of disease in a population with complete knowledge of person-time and occupation. Women in the Army are employed more frequently in non-traditional, industrial jobs such as auto mechanic and motor transport operators than in the general US population, increasing the probability of exposure to industrial chemicals. A cohort to investigate the risk of breast cancer among active duty Army women occupationally exposed to volatile organic chemicals (VOCs) was constructed. Age-adjusted incidence rates for breast cancer were calculated for more than 270,000 enlisted women who served between 1980-1996. Twenty-one VOCs, described in previously published literature as having a potential risk of breast cancer, were identified in an Army industrial hygiene survey database. Job title histories were linked to workplace chemical evaluations conducted by Army industrial hygienists, which included a subjective exposure potential rating (high, medium, low, and none) for each VOC. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between the exposure rating by job title and breast cancer. The incidence of breast cancer in the cohort was significantly elevated in women younger than 35 years of age, especially among black women, when compared to the age-specific rates in the general population. Women who worked in occupations with a moderate to high exposure potential to at least one VOC had a 48% increased risk (P < 0.05) of breast cancer while on active duty between 1980-1996 when compared to those women with low to no exposure potential. This study provides preliminary evidence that exposure to one or more of the study VOCs is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer. Further substance-specific, quantitative analyses are warranted.

Is Maintenance Electroconvulsive Therapy Always an Elective Procedure?: Weighing Medical Versus Psychiatric Risk.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Isobel A; Kellner, Charles H

2018-03-01

Because of the severe nature of psychiatric illness, electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is not always an "elective procedure." The pre-ECT medical evaluation, although important, should not be an impediment to timely ECT. We argue that an arbitrary regulation requiring new assessments every 30 days may be unduly burdensome and unnecessary. The small medical risk of treatment should be weighed against the potential psychiatric risk (including suicide) of delayed treatment.

Stem-cell-derived products: an FDA update.

PubMed

Moos, Malcolm

2008-12-01

The therapeutic potential of products derived from stem cells of various types has prompted increasing research and development and public attention. Initiation of human clinical trials in the not-too-distant future is now a realistic possibility. It is, therefore, important to weigh the potential benefits against known, theoretical and totally unsuspected risks in light of current knowledge to ensure that subjects participating in these trials are afforded the most reasonable balance possible between potential risks and potential benefits. There are no apparent differences in fundamental, qualitative biological characteristics between stem-cell-derived products and other cellular therapies regulated by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Existing authorities can, therefore, be applied. Nevertheless, these products do have properties that require careful evaluation.

Low Cardiorespiratory Fitness in African Americans: A Health Disparity Risk Factor?

PubMed Central

Swift, Damon L.; Staiano, Amanda E.; Johannsen, Neil M.; Lavie, Carl J.; Earnest, Conrad P.; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Blair, Steven N.; Newton, Robert L.; Church, Timothy S.

2013-01-01

Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a well-established risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. African Americans have higher rates of cardiovascular disease compared to their Caucasian counterparts. However, the extent to which lower CRF levels contribute to the excess risk in African Americans has not been fully explored. The purpose of this review is to: 1) explore the literature evaluating the relationship between CRF and mortality specifically in African American populations; and 2) critically evaluate the studies which have compared CRF between African American and Caucasians in epidemiological studies and clinical trials. We have further discussed several potential mechanisms that may contribute to the observation of lower CRF levels in African American compared to Caucasian adults including potential racial differences in physical activity levels, muscle fiber type distribution, and hemoglobin levels. If lower CRF is generally present in African Americans compared to Caucasians, and is of a clinically meaningful difference, this may represent an important public health concern. PMID:23982718

Clinical evaluation of post-operative cerebral infarction in traumatic epidural haematoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Suojun; Wang, Sheng; Wan, Xueyan; Liu, Shengwen; Shu, Kai; Lei, Ting

2017-01-01

Patients with traumatic epidural haematoma, undergoing the prompt and correct treatment, usually have favourable outcomes. However, secondary cerebral infarction may be life-threatening condition, as it is difficult to be identified before neurological impairment occurs. To evaluate the clinical data of patients with traumatic EDH and assess potential risk factors for post-operative cerebral infarction. The clinical data of patients with traumatic EDH were collected and analysed retrospectively. The univariate analysis revealed 10 potential risk factors (the haematoma location, volume, the largest thickness and mid-line shift, basal cisterns compression, traumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage, pupil dilatation, pre-operative Glasgow Coma Scale score, ∆GCS and intraoperative brain pressure) for cerebral infarction with statistically significant difference. Of these factors, haematoma volume and basal cistern compression turned out to be the most significant risk factors through final multivariate logistic regression analysis. The findings of this study can provide predictive factors for development of cerebral infarction and information for clinical decision-making and future studies.

Bayesian joint modelling of benefit and risk in drug development.

PubMed

Costa, Maria J; Drury, Thomas

2018-05-01

To gain regulatory approval, a new medicine must demonstrate that its benefits outweigh any potential risks, ie, that the benefit-risk balance is favourable towards the new medicine. For transparency and clarity of the decision, a structured and consistent approach to benefit-risk assessment that quantifies uncertainties and accounts for underlying dependencies is desirable. This paper proposes two approaches to benefit-risk evaluation, both based on the idea of joint modelling of mixed outcomes that are potentially dependent at the subject level. Using Bayesian inference, the two approaches offer interpretability and efficiency to enhance qualitative frameworks. Simulation studies show that accounting for correlation leads to a more accurate assessment of the strength of evidence to support benefit-risk profiles of interest. Several graphical approaches are proposed that can be used to communicate the benefit-risk balance to project teams. Finally, the two approaches are illustrated in a case study using real clinical trial data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence on global medical travel.

PubMed

Ruggeri, Kai; Záliš, Ladislav; Meurice, Christopher R; Hilton, Ian; Ly, Terry-Lisa; Zupan, Zorana; Hinrichs, Saba

2015-11-01

The potential benefits of travelling across national borders to obtain medical treatment include improved care, decreased costs and reduced waiting times. However, medical travel involves additional risks, compared to obtaining treatment domestically. We review the publicly-available evidence on medical travel. We suggest that medical travel needs to be understood in terms of its potential risks and benefits so that it can be evaluated against alternatives by patients who are seeking care. We propose three domains -quality standards, informed decision-making, economic and legal protection - in which better evidence could support the development of medical travel policies.

[Residues and potential ecological risk assessment of metal in sediments from lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River].

PubMed

Xie, Wen-Ping; Wang, Shao-Bing; Zhu, Xin-Ping; Chen, Kun-Ci; Pan, De-Bo; Hong, Xiao-You; Yin, Yi

2012-06-01

In order to investigate the heavy metal concentrations and their potential ecological risks in surface sediments of lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River, 21 bottom sediment samples were collected from lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River. Total contents of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Sb, Pb and Hg in these samples were measured by the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and the atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) and using the index of geoaccumulation and the potential ecological risk index to evaluate the pollution degree of heavy metals in the sediments. Results indicated that the concentration of total Fe and total Mn were 41658.73 and 1104.73 mg x kg(-1) respectively and toxic trace metals, such as Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Sb, Pb and Hg were 86.62, 18.18, 54.10, 80.20, 543.60, 119.55, 4.28, 10.60, 20.26, 104.58 and 0.520 mg x kg(-1). The descending order of pollution degree of various metals is: Cd > As approximately Zn > Hg > Pb approximately Cu approximately Cr, while the single potential ecological risk followed the order: Cd > Hg > As > Cu > Pb > Zn > Cr. The pollution extent and potential ecological risk of Cd were the most serious among all heavy metals. The distribution pattern of Cd individual potential ecological risk indices is exactly the same as that of general potential ecological risk indices for all heavy metals. Clustering analysis indicates that the sampling stations may be classified into five groups which basically reflected the characteristics of the heavy metal contamination and sedimentation environments along the different river reaches in lower reaches and estuary of Pearl Rive. In general, the serious heavy metal pollution and the high potential ecological risk existed in three river reaches: Chengcun-Shawan, Chengcun-Shundegang and Waihai-Hutiaomen. The pollution degree and potential ecological risk are higher in related river reaches of Beijiang than that in other lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River.

Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

1991-01-01

Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

Integrating Family Visitation and Risk Evaluation: A Practical Bonding Model for Decision Makers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansay, Sylvia J.; Perkins, Daniel F.

2001-01-01

Child welfare legislation and policy have shifted away from a standard of reasonable efforts toward reunification for children in foster care to a standard in which the best interests of the child have priority. Authors apply a family bonding perspective to address risk assessment for children in foster care and demonstrate potential for…

Evaluating management risks using landscape trajectory analysis: a case study of California fisher

Treesearch

Craig M. Thompson; William J. Zielinski; Kathryn L. Purcell

2011-01-01

Ecosystem management requires an understanding of how landscapes vary in space and time, how this variation can be affected by management decisions or stochastic events, and the potential consequences for species. Landscape trajectory analysis, coupled with a basic knowledge of species habitat selection, offers a straightforward approach to ecological risk analysis and...

Education and Coronary Heart Disease Risk: Potential Mechanisms Such as Literacy, Perceived Constraints, and Depressive Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loucks, Eric B.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Howe, Chanelle J.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Rudd, Rima E.; Martin, Laurie T.; Nandi, Arijit; Wilhelm, Aude; Buka, Stephen L.

2015-01-01

Objective: Education is inversely associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk; however the mechanisms are poorly understood. The study objectives were to evaluate the extent to which rarely measured factors (literacy, time preference, sense of control) and more commonly measured factors (income, depressive symptomatology, body mass index) in…

Assessing the importance of agricultural management practices to reduce the ecological risk of pesticides

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of pesticides in agriculture, their potential to be transported beyond the intended target, and their possible risk to human and environmental health has been of public concern for many years. We utilized 5 years of field data from 3 vegetable production systems to evaluate the ability of ag...

Development of coarse-scale spatial data for wildland fire and fuel management

Treesearch

Kirsten M. Schmidt; James P. Menakis; Colin C. Hardy; Wendall J. Hann; David L. Bunnell

2002-01-01

We produced seven coarse-scale, 1-km2 resolution, spatial data layers for the conterminous United States to support national-level fire planning and risk assessments. Four of these layers were developed to evaluate ecological conditions and risk to ecosystem components: Potential Natural Vegetation Groups, a layer of climax vegetation types representing site...

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

Risk management and post-marketing surveillance of CNS drugs.

PubMed

Henningfield, Jack E; Schuster, Charles R

2009-12-01

Drugs affecting the central nervous system span a broad range of chemical entities, dosage forms, indications, and risks. Unintended consequences include potential abuse and overdose in non-patient drug abusers, deliberate tampering of drug dosage forms, and criminal behavior associated with diversion. Regulators must consider diverse factors to find the appropriate conditions of approval to minimize unintended consequences while enabling a level of access desired by health care providers and patients. This commentary appears as part of a special issue of Drug and Alcohol Dependence that focuses on risk management and post-marketing surveillance and addresses key issues that pose real-world challenges to pharmaceutical sponsors and regulators in particular. For example, in the U.S., Controlled Substances Act drug scheduling can be considered a risk management strategy but its legal authorities and administrative processes are independent from those of risk management (including Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies or REMS); better harmonization of these approaches is vital from drug development and regulatory perspectives. Risk management would ideally be implemented on a strong science foundation demonstrating that the tools employed to mitigate risks and ensure safe use are effective. In reality, research and evaluation of tools in this area is in its infancy and will necessarily be an evolutionary process; furthermore, there is little precedent for linking interventions and program evolution to unintended consequences such as regional outbreaks of abuse and diversion. How such issues are resolved has the potential to stimulate or stifle innovations in drug development and advance or imperil health care.

Radiation risk from CT: implications for cancer screening.

PubMed

Albert, Jeffrey M

2013-07-01

The cancer risks associated with patient exposure to radiation from medical imaging have become a major topic of debate. The higher doses necessary for technologies such as CT and the increasing utilization of these technologies further increase medical radiation exposure to the population. Furthermore, the use of CT for population-based cancer screening continues to be explored for common malignancies such as lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Given the known carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation, this warrants evaluation of the balance between the benefit of early cancer detection and the risk of screening-induced malignancy. This report provides a brief review of the process of radiation carcino-genesis and the literature evaluating the risk of malignancy from CT, with a focus on the risks and benefits of CT for cancer screening. The available data suggest a small but real risk of radiation-induced malignancy from CT that could become significant at the population level with widespread use of CT-based screening. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the benefits of CT screening for lung cancer in high-risk patients and CT colonography for colorectal cancer may significantly outweigh the radiation risk. Future studies evaluating the benefits of CT screening should continue to consider potential radiation risks.

Spatial response surface modelling in the presence of data paucity for the evaluation of potential human health risk due to the contamination of potable water resources.

PubMed

Liu, Shen; McGree, James; Hayes, John F; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2016-10-01

Potential human health risk from waterborne diseases arising from unsatisfactory performance of on-site wastewater treatment systems is driven by landscape factors such as topography, soil characteristics, depth to water table, drainage characteristics and the presence of surface water bodies. These factors are present as random variables which are spatially distributed across a region. A methodological framework is presented that can be applied to model and evaluate the influence of various factors on waterborne disease potential. This framework is informed by spatial data and expert knowledge. For prediction at unsampled sites, interpolation methods were used to derive a spatially smoothed surface of disease potential which takes into account the uncertainty due to spatial variation at any pre-determined level of significance. This surface was constructed by accounting for the influence of multiple variables which appear to contribute to disease potential. The framework developed in this work strengthens the understanding of the characteristics of disease potential and provides predictions of this potential across a region. The study outcomes presented constitutes an innovative approach to environmental monitoring and management in the face of data paucity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community Level Stressors and Their Impacts on Food ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Research is needed to understand a community’s food resources, utilization of those resources, and how the built and natural environment impact access to resources and potential chemical exposures. This research will identify stressors, relationships between those stressors, and explore potential interactions between food resources and chemical and non-chemical stressors. By evaluating various chemical and non-chemical stressors, an understanding of a community’s food resources and utilization with potential exposures can be obtained. With this understanding about the community’s potential dietary exposures and contributing factors, it will be possible to evaluate ways to mitigate and alleviate issues that could impact public health. The objectives of this research are 1) to obtain information on a community’s environmental exposures (chemical and non-chemical stressors) from various available databases and data and 2) to evaluate impacts on dietary exposure which may lead to adverse public health outcomes. This research will enhance public tools, in particular, the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (CFERST), which can be utilized by community leaders in decision making by bridging all pertinent information to inform policy. Community level health analyses can support protective actions, be used by communities to identify and prioritize their risks based on scientific data and ensure that resources are directed where they will provi

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

Use of the Maximum Cumulative Ratio As an Approach for Prioritizing Aquatic Coexposure to Plant Protection Products: A Case Study of a Large Surface Water Monitoring Database.

PubMed

Vallotton, Nathalie; Price, Paul S

2016-05-17

This paper uses the maximum cumulative ratio (MCR) as part of a tiered approach to evaluate and prioritize the risk of acute ecological effects from combined exposures to the plant protection products (PPPs) measured in 3 099 surface water samples taken from across the United States. Assessments of the reported mixtures performed on a substance-by-substance approach and using a Tier One cumulative assessment based on the lowest acute ecotoxicity benchmark gave the same findings for 92.3% of the mixtures. These mixtures either did not indicate a potential risk for acute effects or included one or more individual PPPs that had concentrations in excess of their benchmarks. A Tier Two assessment using a trophic level approach was applied to evaluate the remaining 7.7% of the mixtures. This assessment reduced the number of mixtures of concern by eliminating the combination of endpoint from multiple trophic levels, identified invertebrates and nonvascular plants as the most susceptible nontarget organisms, and indicated that a only a very limited number of PPPs drove the potential concerns. The combination of the measures of cumulative risk and the MCR enabled the identification of a small subset of mixtures where a potential risk would be missed in substance-by-substance assessments.

A systematic checklist approach to immunosuppression risk management: An audit of practice at two clinical neuroimmunology centers.

PubMed

Mori, Amelia M; Agarwal, Smriti; Lee, Monique W M; Rafferty, Martina; Hardy, Todd A; Coles, Alasdair; Reddel, Stephen W; Riminton, D Sean

2017-11-15

There is no consensus approach to safety screening for immune intervention in clinical neuroimmunology. An immunosuppression risk evaluation checklist was used as an audit tool to assess real-world immunosuppression risk management and formulate recommendations for quality improvements in patient safety. Ninety-nine patients from two centres with 27 non-MS diagnoses were included. An average of 1.9 comorbidities with the potential to adversely impact morbidity and mortality associated with immunosuppression were identified. Diabetes and smoking were the most common, however a range of rarer but potentially life-threatening co-morbid disorders in the context of immunosuppression were identified. Inadequate documentation of risk mitigation tasks was common at 40.1% of total tasks across both cohorts. A routine, systematic immunosuppression checklist approach should be considered to improve immunosuppression risk management in clinical neuroimmunology practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leaching risk of N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) in soil receiving reclaimed wastewater.

PubMed

Haruta, Shinsuke; Chen, Weiping; Gan, Jay; Simůnek, Jirka; Chang, Andrew C; Wu, Laosheng

2008-03-01

N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) is a potential carcinogen frequently found in treated wastewater as a byproduct of chlorination. The potential for NDMA to contaminate the groundwater is a significant concern. A solute fate and transport model, Hydrus-1D, was used to evaluate the leaching potential of NDMA under different irrigation practices and soil properties. The results indicate that the risk of NDMA to reach the ground water is slim, when the reclaimed wastewater is applied under the customary conditions for landscape irrigation. The NDMA disappears in the reclaimed wastewater receiving soils rapidly through the microbial degradation and the volatilization processes. The factors that enhance the leaching risk are the soil hydraulic conductivity, the NDMA adsorption constants, and the irrigation intensity. When the hydraulic conductivity of soil is high, the NDMA adsorption constant of soil is low and/or the irrigation intensity is high, the NDMA leaching risk may dramatically increase. To reduce the NDMA leaching risk, it is imperative that the fields be irrigated at the proper volume and frequency and attention be paid to fields with soils having high-hydraulic conductivities and/or low-NDMA adsorption constants.

IMPAIRMENT IN SHORT-TERM BUT ENHANCED LONG-TERM SYNAPTIC POTENTIATION AND ERK ACTIVATION IN ADULT HIPPOCAMPAL AREA CA1 FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTAL HYPOTHYROIDISM.

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA must evaluate the risk of exposure of the developing brain to chemicals with the potential to disrupt thyroid hormone homeostasis. The existing literature identifies morphological and neurochemical indices of severe neonatal hypothyroidism in the early postnatal period i...

Characterizing crown fuel distribution for conifers in the interior western United States

Treesearch

Seth Ex; Frederick W. Smith; Tara Keyser

2015-01-01

Canopy fire hazard evaluation is essential for prioritizing fuel treatments and for assessing potential risk to firefighters during suppression activities. Fire hazard is usually expressed as predicted potential fire behavior, which is sensitive to the methodology used to quantitatively describe fuel profiles: methodologies that assume that fuel is distributed...

TEMPORAL MOISTURE CONTENT VARIABILITY BENEATH AND EXTERNAL TO A BUILDING AND THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON VAPOR INTRUSION RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Migration of vapors from organic chemicals residing in the subsurface into overlying buildings is known as vapor intrusion. Because of the difficulty in evaluating vapor intrusion by indoor air sampling, models are often employed to determine if a potential indoor inhalation exp...

Perioperative hair removal: A review of best practice and a practice improvement opportunity.

PubMed

Spencer, Maureen; Barnden, Marsha; Johnson, Helen Boehm; Fauerbach, Loretta Litz; Graham, Denise; Edmiston, Charles E

2018-06-01

The current practice of perioperative hair removal reflects research-driven changes designed to minimize the risk of surgical wound infection. An aspect of the practice which has received less scrutiny is the clean-up of the clipped hair. This process is critical. The loose fibers represent a potential infection risk because of the micro-organisms they can carry, but their clean-up can pose a logistical problem because of the time required to remove them. Research has demonstrated that the most commonly employed means of clean-up, the use of adhesive tape or sticky mitts, can be both ineffective and time-consuming in addition to posing an infection risk from cross-contamination. Recently published research evaluating surgical clippers fitted with a vacuum-assisted hair collection device highlights the potential for significant practice improvement in the perioperative hair removal clean-up process. These improvements include not only further mitigation of potential infection risk but also substantial OR time and cost savings.

Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water

PubMed Central

Wolf, Douglas C.; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I.; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P.; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework’s roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization. PMID:26451723

Illustrative case using the RISK21 roadmap and matrix: prioritization for evaluation of chemicals found in drinking water.

PubMed

Wolf, Douglas C; Bachman, Ammie; Barrett, Gordon; Bellin, Cheryl; Goodman, Jay I; Jensen, Elke; Moretto, Angelo; McMullin, Tami; Pastoor, Timothy P; Schoeny, Rita; Slezak, Brian; Wend, Korinna; Embry, Michelle R

2016-01-01

The HESI-led RISK21 effort has developed a framework supporting the use of twenty-first century technology in obtaining and using information for chemical risk assessment. This framework represents a problem formulation-based, exposure-driven, tiered data acquisition approach that leads to an informed decision on human health safety to be made when sufficient evidence is available. It provides a transparent and consistent approach to evaluate information in order to maximize the ability of assessments to inform decisions and to optimize the use of resources. To demonstrate the application of the framework's roadmap and matrix, this case study evaluates a large number of chemicals that could be present in drinking water. The focus is to prioritize which of these should be considered for human health risk as individual contaminants. The example evaluates 20 potential drinking water contaminants, using the tiered RISK21 approach in combination with graphical representation of information at each step, using the RISK21 matrix. Utilizing the framework, 11 of the 20 chemicals were assigned low priority based on available exposure data alone, which demonstrated that exposure was extremely low. The remaining nine chemicals were further evaluated, using refined estimates of toxicity based on readily available data, with three deemed high priority for further evaluation. In the present case study, it was determined that the greatest value of additional information would be from improved exposure models and not from additional hazard characterization.

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

[Evaluation of the autochthonous transmission risk of Zika virus and other emerging mosquito-borne viral diseases in Catalonia (Spain)].

PubMed

De Salazar, Pablo M; Jané, Mireia; Maresma, Mar; Plasencia, Antoni

The recent Zika virus epidemic has highlighted the potential risk of introducing the arbovirosis to Europe, especially within the Mediterranean region where the vector, Aedes albopictus, has become established as an invasive species. In this context, a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of introducing the Zika virus and other mosquito-borne viruses of public health importance in Catalonia (Spain) was carried out. This article summarises the results of the preliminary assessment and the recommendations for the public health preparedness and response plan against the threat posed by these emerging diseases. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Listo, Fabrizio de Luiz Rosito; Carvalho Vieira, Bianca

2012-10-01

In the city of São Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of São Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation.

Public health implications of environmental noise associated with unconventional oil and gas development.

PubMed

Hays, Jake; McCawley, Michael; Shonkoff, Seth B C

2017-02-15

Modern oil and gas development frequently occurs in close proximity to human populations and increased levels of ambient noise have been documented throughout some phases of development. Numerous studies have evaluated air and water quality degradation and human exposure pathways, but few have evaluated potential health risks and impacts from environmental noise exposure. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental noise exposure to determine the potential concerns, if any, that noise from oil and gas development activities present to public health. Data on noise levels associated with oil and gas development are limited, but measurements can be evaluated amidst the large body of epidemiology assessing the non-auditory effects of environmental noise exposure and established public health guidelines for community noise. There are a large number of noise dependent and subjective factors that make the determination of a dose response relationship between noise and health outcomes difficult. However, the literature indicates that oil and gas activities produce noise at levels that may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes, including annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease. More studies that investigate the relationships between noise exposure and human health risks from unconventional oil and gas development are warranted. Finally, policies and mitigation techniques that limit human exposure to noise from oil and gas operations should be considered to reduce health risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

PubMed

Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

1999-03-01

To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

Risk-Aware Planetary Rover Operation: Autonomous Terrain Classification and Path Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Fuchs, Thoams J.; Steffy, Amanda; Maimone, Mark; Yen, Jeng

2015-01-01

Identifying and avoiding terrain hazards (e.g., soft soil and pointy embedded rocks) are crucial for the safety of planetary rovers. This paper presents a newly developed groundbased Mars rover operation tool that mitigates risks from terrain by automatically identifying hazards on the terrain, evaluating their risks, and suggesting operators safe paths options that avoids potential risks while achieving specified goals. The tool will bring benefits to rover operations by reducing operation cost, by reducing cognitive load of rover operators, by preventing human errors, and most importantly, by significantly reducing the risk of the loss of rovers.

Development and Piloting of a Food Safety Audit Tool for the Domestic Environment

PubMed Central

Borrusso, Patricia; Quinlan, Jennifer J.

2013-01-01

Research suggests that consumers often mishandle food in the home based on survey and observation studies. There is a need for a standardized tool for researchers to objectively evaluate the prevalence and identify the nature of food safety risks in the domestic environment. An audit tool was developed to measure compliance with recommended sanitation, refrigeration and food storage conditions in the domestic kitchen. The tool was piloted by four researchers who independently completed the inspection in 22 homes. Audit tool questions were evaluated for reliability using the κ statistic. Questions that were not sufficiently reliable (κ < 0.5) or did not provide direct evidence of risk were revised or eliminated from the final tool. Piloting the audit tool found good reliability among 18 questions, 6 questions were revised and 28 eliminated, resulting in a final 24 question tool. The audit tool was able to identify potential food safety risks, including evidence of pest infestation (27%), incorrect refrigeration temperature (73%), and lack of hot water (>43 °C, 32%). The audit tool developed here provides an objective measure for researchers to observe and record the most prevalent food safety risks in consumer’s kitchens and potentially compare risks among consumers of different demographics. PMID:28239139

Research on big data risk assessment of major transformer defects and faults fusing power grid, equipment and environment based on SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lijuan; Yan, Haijun; Gao, Wensheng; Chen, Yun; Hao, Yongqi

2018-01-01

With the development of power big data, considering the wider power system data, the appropriate large data analysis method can be used to mine the potential law and value of power big data. On the basis of considering all kinds of monitoring data and defects and fault records of main transformer, the paper integrates the power grid, equipment as well as environment data and uses SVM as the main algorithm to evaluate the risk of the main transformer. It gets and compares the evaluation results under different modes, and proves that the risk assessment algorithms and schemes have certain effectiveness. This paper provides a new idea for data fusion of smart grid, and provides a reference for further big data evaluation of power grid equipment.

Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

2018-05-01

A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated considerations for determining social vulnerability to wildfire and articulate alternative means to collect such information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Assessing the Risk of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Using a Finger Stick Analysis in Recalls from Breast Screening: The CINFIBS Explorative Study.

PubMed

Houben, I P L; van Berlo, C J L Y; Bekers, O; Nijssen, E C; Lobbes, M B I; Wildberger, J E

2017-01-01

To evaluate whether a handheld point-of-care (POC) device is able to predict and discriminate patients at potential risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) prior to iodine-based contrast media delivery. Between December 2014 and June 2016, women undergoing contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM) with an iodine-based contrast agent were asked to have their risk of CIN assessed by a dedicated POC device (StatSensor CREAT) and a risk factor questionnaire based on national guidelines. Prior to contrast injection, a venous blood sample was drawn to compare the results of POC with regular laboratory testing. A total of 351 patients were included; 344 were finally categorized as low risk patients by blood creatinine evaluation. Seven patients had a eGFR below 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , necessitating additional preparation prior to contrast delivery. The POC device failed to categorize six out of seven patients (86%), leading to (at that stage) unwanted contrast administration. Two patients subsequently developed CIN after 2-5 days, which was self-limiting after 30 days. The POC device tested was not able to reliably assess impairment of renal function in our patient cohort undergoing CESM. Consequently, we still consider classic clinical laboratory testing preferable in patients at potential risk for developing CIN.

Screening and Monitoring for Infectious Complications When Immunosuppressive Agents Are Studied in the Treatment of Autoimmune Disorders.

PubMed

Loechelt, Brett J; Green, Michael; Gottlieb, Peter A; Blumberg, Emily; Weinberg, Adriana; Quinlan, Scott; Baden, Lindsey R

2015-09-01

Significant progress has been made in the development, investigation, and clinical application of immunosuppressive agents to treat a variety of autoimmune disorders. The expansion of clinical applications of these new agents requires the performance of large multicenter clinical trials. These large clinical trials are particularly important as one considers these agents for the treatment of type 1 diabetes, which although autoimmune in its pathogenesis, is not classically treated as an autoimmune disorder. Although these agents hold promise for amelioration or cure of this disease, they have the potential to facilitate infectious complications. There are limited data regarding the prospective assessment of infectious risks with these agents in trials of this nature. Pediatric subjects may be at greater risk due to the higher likelihood of primary infection. A subgroup of experts associated with TrialNet (a National Institutes of Health [NIH]-funded Type 1 diabetes mellitus research network) with expertise in infectious diseases, immunology, and diagnostics developed an approach for screening and monitoring of immunosuppression-associated infections for prospective use in clinical trials. The goals of these recommendations are to provide a structured approach to monitor for infections, to identify specific laboratory testing and surveillance methods, and to consider therapies for treatment of these potential complications. Prospective evaluations of these infectious risks allow for greater scientific rigor in the evaluation of risk, which must be balanced with the potential benefits of these therapies. Our experience supports an important role for investigators with expertise in infections in immunocompromised individuals in protocol development of immunosuppressive trials in type 1diabetes and potentially other autoimmune diseases.

Quantifying Children's Aggregate (Dietary and Residential) Exposure and Dose to Permethin: Application and Evaluation of EPA's Probabilistic SHED-Multimedia Model

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable, evaluated human exposure and dose models are important for understanding the health risks from chemicals. A case study focusing on permethrin was conducted because of this insecticide’s widespread use and potential health effects. SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimat...

Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

2011-01-01

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

Pollution assessment and source apportionment of heavy metals in contaminated site soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Hongbo; Ma, Yan

2018-03-01

Pollution characteristics of heavy metals in soil were analyzed with a typical contaminated site as the case area. The pollution degree of the element was evaluated by indexes of geoaccumulation (Igeo). The potential ecological risk of heavy metals was assessed with potential ecological risk index model. Principal component analysis (PCA) model was simultaneously carried out to identify the main sources of heavy metals in topsoils. The results indicated that: 1. Mean values of 11 kinds of metals in topsoils were greater than respective soil background values, following the order: Zn>Pb>V>Cr>Cu>Ni>Co>As>Sb>Cd>Hg. Heavy metals with a certain accumulation in the research area were significantly affected by external factors. 2. Igeo results showed that Cd and Zn reached strongly polluted degree, while Pb with moderately to strongly polluted, Sb and Hg with moderately polluted, Cu, Co, Ni and Cr with unpolluted to moderately polluted, V and As with un-polluted. 3. Potential ecological risk assessment showed the degree of ecological risk with Cd at very high risk, Hg at high risk, Pb at moderate risk and others at low risk. The comprehensive risk of all the metals was very high. 4. PCA got three main sources with contributions, including industrial activities (44.18%), traffic and burning dust (26.68%) and soil parent materials (12.20%).

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Alternative feeding strategies and potential disease transmission in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, A.K.; Samuel, M.D.; VanDeelen, T.R.

2008-01-01

We conducted experimental feeding using 3 feeding methods (pile, spread, trough) and 2 quantities (rationed, ad libitum) of shelled corn to compare deer activity and behavior with control sites and evaluate potential direct and indirect transmission of infectious disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in central Wisconsin, USA. Deer use was higher at 2 of the feeding sites than at natural feeding areas (P ??? 0.02). Deer spent a higher proportion of time (P < 0.01) feeding at pile (49%) and spread (61%) treatments than at natural feeding areas (36%). We found higher deer use for rationed than ad libitum feeding quantities and feeding intensity was greatest at rationed piles and lowest at ad libitum spreads. We also observed closer pairwise distances (???0.3 m) among deer when corn was provided in a trough relative to spread (P=0.03). Supplemental feeding poses risks for both direct and indirect disease transmission due to higher deer concentration and more intensive use relative to control areas. Concentrated feeding and contact among deer at feeding sites can also increase risk for disease transmission. Our results indicated that restrictions on feeding quantity would not mitigate the potential for disease transmission None of the feeding strategies we evaluated substantially reduced the potential risk for disease transmission and banning supplemental feeding to reduce transmission is warranted.

Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

2017-01-01

The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

Maternal drug use: evaluation of risks to breast-fed infants.

PubMed

Kirksey, A; Groziak, S M

1984-01-01

This paper, based on a review of the literature, evaluates the risks to infants of maternal drug use during lactation. The potential harm of a particular drug to the breastfed infant is related both to the complex mechanism of milk synthesis and secretion and the mode of passage of the drug from plasma into milk. The 1st part of the paper discusses mammary cell and milk synthesis, milk secretion and composition, the mode of passage of drugs into milk, and factors influencing drug concentrations in milk. Drug concentrations in milk are dependent on 6 major factors: drug dosage, proportion bound in plasma, molecular weight, lipid solubility, degree of ionization, and pH difference between plasma and milk. Drugs that are weak acids are ionized to a greater extent and are more protein-bound than weak alkaline drugs. The 2nd part of the paper evaluates the risks to breastfed infants of selected pharmacons. Some categories of drugs that contain pharmacons that should be limited or avoided by nursing mothers are alkylating agents, analgesics and anti-inflammatory agents, anticoagulants, anticonvulsants, anti-infective agents, central nervous system stimulants, hormones, laxatives, minerals, provitamins, psychotherapeutic agents, thyroid affecting agents, and vitamins. The following precautions are suggested to minimize the risks of potentially harmful pharmacons: 1) all unnecessary medications should be avoided by nrusing mothers; 2) if medication is necessary during lactation, drug dosage should be controlled and the infant should be monitored for adverse symptoms; 3) drugs should be administered shortly after breastfeeding and the interval prolonged before the next feeding; and 4) if the infant must be fed soon after a potentially harmful drug has been taken by the mother, bottle feeding is recommended.

Comparative Study of Barotrauma Risk during Fish Passage through Kaplan Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richmond, Marshall C.; Romero-Gomez, Pedro; Serkowski, John A.

Rapid pressure changes in hydroelectric turbine flows can cause barotrauma that can be hazardous to the passage of fish, in particular migratory juvenile salmonids. Although numerous laboratory tests have evaluated the effect of rapid decompression in fish species of relevance, numerical modeling studies offer the advantage of predicting, for new turbine designs, the potential risks of mortality and injury from rapid pressure change during turbine passage. However, rapid pressure change is only one of several hydraulic risks encountered by fish during turbine passage in addition to blade strike, shear, and turbulence. To better understand the role of rapid pressure changes,more » the present work focuses on the application of a computational fluid dynamics based method for evaluating the risk of pressure-related mortality to fish passing through an early 1960s era original hydroelectric Kaplan turbine at Wanapum Dam (Columbia River, Washington), and a modern advanced Kaplan turbine installed in 2005. The results show that the modeling approach acceptably reproduced the nadir pressure distributions compared to field data previously collected at the site using an autonomous sensor. Our findings show that the new advanced-design unit performs better, in terms of reduced barotrauma risk to fish from exposure to low pressures, than the original turbine unit. The outcomes allow for comparative analyses of turbine designs and operations prior to installation, an advantage that can potentially be integrated in the process of designing new turbine units to achieve superior environmental performance. Overall, the results show that modern turbine designs can achieve the multiple objectives of increasing power generation, lowering cavitation potential, and reducing barotrauma risks to passing fish.« less

Lung magnetic resonance imaging for pneumonia in children.

PubMed

Liszewski, Mark C; Görkem, Süreyya; Sodhi, Kushaljit S; Lee, Edward Y

2017-10-01

Technical factors have historically limited the role of MRI in the evaluation of pneumonia in children in routine clinical practice. As imaging technology has advanced, recent studies utilizing practical MR imaging protocols have shown MRI to be an accurate potential alternative to CT for the evaluation of pneumonia and its complications. This article provides up-to-date MR imaging techniques that can be implemented in most radiology departments to evaluate pneumonia in children. Imaging findings in pneumonia on MRI are also reviewed. In addition, the current literature describing the diagnostic performance of MRI for pneumonia is discussed. Furthermore, potential risks and limitations of MRI for the evaluation of pneumonia in children are described.

EPA Peer Consultation Workshop on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Phthalates: Potential Options and Methods for Evaluating the Cumulative Hazard Associated with Six Selected Phthalates

EPA Science Inventory

EPA held a 2-day workshop on December 8 and 9, 2010 at the Doubletree Hotel Washington DC-Crystal City in Arlington, Viriginia. The goal of this workshop was to evaulate methods of determining cumulative risk associated with exposure to mulitple phthalates for inclusion in the EP...

DTC advertising harms patients and should be tightly regulated.

PubMed

Lurie, Peter

2009-01-01

Like all interventions in health care, direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising should be evaluated by comparing its risks to its benefits, in the context of the available or potentially available alternatives. The objective, of course, is to realize any unique benefits while minimizing the risks. On balance, the adverse effects of DTC advertising outweigh the still-undemonstrated benefits of the advertising.

The Risks and Benefits of Snow Sports for People with Disabilities: A Review of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nasuti, Gabriella; Temple, Viviene A.

2010-01-01

Snow sports are popular pastimes with therapeutic potential. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of injury and evidence of benefits of alpine skiing (including sit-skiing), Nordic skiing, and snowboarding for people with disabilities. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria from 357 citations. Research in this area is still in its…

Attractive toxic sugar baits: Control of mosquitoes with the low risk active ingredient dinotefuran and potential impacts on non-target organisms in Morocco

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We evaluated the efficacy of ATSB in the laboratory and the field with the low risk active ingredient dinotefuran against mosquito populations. Assays indicated that dinotefuran in solution with the sugar baits was ingested and resulted in high mortality of female Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes a...

A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Hallett, Timothy B; Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Gonese, Elizabeth; Garnett, Geoff P

2009-06-01

Determining whether interventions to reduce HIV transmission have worked is essential, but complicated by the potential for generalised epidemics to evolve over time without individuals changing risk behaviour. We aimed to develop a method to evaluate evidence for changes in risk behaviour altering the course of an HIV epidemic. We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission, incorporating the potential for natural changes in the epidemic as it matures and the introduction of antiretroviral treatment, and applied a Bayesian Melding framework, in which the model and observed trends in prevalence can be compared. We applied the model to Zimbabwe, using HIV prevalence estimates from antenatal clinic surveillance and house-hold based surveys, and basing model parameters on data from sexual behaviour surveys. There was strong evidence for reductions in risk behaviour stemming HIV transmission. We estimate these changes occurred between 1999 and 2004 and averted 660,000 (95% credible interval: 460,000-860,000) infections by 2008. The model and associated analysis framework provide a robust way to evaluate the evidence for changes in risk behaviour affecting the course of HIV epidemics, avoiding confounding by the natural evolution of HIV epidemics.

The effect of dietary guidelines on cancer risk and mortality.

PubMed

Bälter, Katarina; Möller, Elisabeth; Fondell, Elinor

2012-01-01

Dietary guidelines are important tools for educating the general public and helping health professionals promote good health and prevent chronic diet-related diseases. However, it is of major public health relevance that the effect of the guidelines per se is evaluated to make sure that they serve their purpose. The aim of this article is to review the current research on dietary guidelines and their effect on cancer risk and mortality. Since the last 30-40 years, most industrialized countries have had dietary guidelines. The guidelines are based on thorough reviews of the current scientific evidence regarding dietary intake and health. Potential health benefits associated with good adherence to the guidelines have been evaluated in observational studies during the last 15 years, with an increase in the number of studies during the most recent years. Available data on the potential association between dietary guidelines and cancer are limited and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of studies on overall cancer risk shows no protective effect for good adherence to the dietary guidelines as compared with poor adherence. However, good adherence was associated with a 21% reduced risk of colorectal cancer, and 22% reduced cancer-specific mortality.

An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Levin, Richard R.; Carpenter, Elisabeth J.

1990-01-01

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most.

Research strategies for safety evaluation of nanomaterials, part VII: evaluating consumer exposure to nanoscale materials.

PubMed

Thomas, Treye; Thomas, Karluss; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Savage, Nora; Adair, Patricia; Bronaugh, Robert

2006-05-01

Considerable media attention has recently been given to novel applications for products that contain nanoscale materials. These products could have utility in several industries that market consumer products, including textiles, sporting equipment, cosmetics, consumer electronics, and household cleaners. Some of the purported benefits of these products include improved performance, convenience, lower cost, as well as other desirable features, when compared to the conventional products that do not contain nanoscale materials. Although there are numerous likely consumer advantages from products containing nanoscale materials, there is very little information available regarding consumer exposure to the nanoscale materials in these products or any associated risks from these exposures. This paper seeks to review a limited subset of products that contain nanoscale materials, assess the available data for evaluating the consumer exposures and potential hazards associated with these products, and discuss the capacity of U.S. regulatory agencies to address the potential risks associated with these products.

Cardiac PET/CT for the Evaluation of Known or Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Murthy, Venkatesh L.

2011-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is increasingly being applied in the evaluation of myocardial perfusion. Cardiac PET can be performed with an increasing variety of cyclotron- and generator-produced radiotracers. Compared with single photon emission computed tomography, PET offers lower radiation exposure, fewer artifacts, improved spatial resolution, and, most important, improved diagnostic performance. With its capacity to quantify rest–peak stress left ventricular systolic function as well as coronary flow reserve, PET is superior to other methods for the detection of multivessel coronary artery disease and, potentially, for risk stratification. Coronary artery calcium scoring may be included for further risk stratification in patients with normal perfusion imaging findings. Furthermore, PET allows quantification of absolute myocardial perfusion, which also carries substantial prognostic value. Hybrid PET–computed tomography scanners allow functional evaluation of myocardial perfusion combined with anatomic characterization of the epicardial coronary arteries, thereby offering great potential for both diagnosis and management. Additional studies to further validate the prognostic value and cost effectiveness of PET are warranted. © RSNA, 2011 PMID:21918042

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

2014-01-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation. PMID:24672588

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Johnson, Shara M; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M; Conroy, Mary Alice

2013-02-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation.

Risk analysis of heavy metal concentration in surface waters across the rural-urban interface of the Wen-Rui Tang River, China.

PubMed

Qu, Liyin; Huang, Hong; Xia, Fang; Liu, Yuanyuan; Dahlgren, Randy A; Zhang, Minghua; Mei, Kun

2018-06-01

Heavy metal pollution is a major concern in China because of its serious effects on human health. To assess potential human health and ecological risks of heavy metal pollution, concentration data for seven heavy metals (As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Hg, Cu, Zn) from 14 sites spanning the rural-urban interface of the Wen-Rui Tang River watershed in southeast China were collected from 2000 to 2010. The heavy metal pollution index (HPI), hazard index (HI) and carcinogenic risk (CR) metrics were used to assess potential heavy metal risks. Further, we evaluated the uncertainty associated with the risk assessment indices using Monte Carlo analysis. Results indicated that all HPI values were lower than the critical level of 100 suggesting that heavy metal levels posed acceptable ecological risks; however, one site having an industrial point-source input reached levels of 80-97 on several occasions. Heavy metal concentrations fluctuated over time, and the decrease after 2007 is due to increased wastewater collection. The HI suggested low non-carcinogenic risk throughout the study period (HI < 1); however, nine sites showed CR values above the acceptable level of 10 -4 for potential cancer risk from arsenic in the early 2000s. Uncertainty analysis revealed an exposure risk for As at all sites because some CR values exceeded the 10 -4 level of concern; levels of Cd near an old industrial area also exceeded the Cd exposure standard (2.6% of CR values > 10 -4 ). While most metrics for human health risk did not exceed critical values for heavy metals, there is still a potential human health risk from chronic exposure to low heavy metal concentrations due to long-term exposure and potential metal interactions. Results of this study inform water pollution remediation and management efforts designed to protect public health in polluted urban area waterways common in rapidly developing regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials.

PubMed

Genske, Anna; Engel-Glatter, Sabrina

2016-03-01

Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including 'risk' minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using 'risk assessment' as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as 'risk' and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue.

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk

PubMed Central

Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N.

2017-01-01

Objectives To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. Study design The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Results Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10–1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02–1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17–1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03–1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Conclusion Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted. PMID:29131843

THE LIQUEFACTION RISK ANALYSIS OF CEMENT-TREATED SANDY GROUND CONSIDERING THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL STRENGTH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Norio; Kasama, Kiyonobu; Zen, Kouki; Chen, Guangqi

This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessi ng the liquefaction risk of cement-treated ground, which is an anti-liquefaction ground improved by cemen t-mixing. In this study, the liquefaction potential of cement-treated ground is analyzed statistically using Monte Carlo Simulation based on the nonlinear earthquake response analysis consid ering the spatial variability of so il properties. The seismic bearing capacity of partially liquefied ground is analyzed in order to estimat e damage costs induced by partial liquefaction. Finally, the annual li quefaction risk is calcu lated by multiplying the liquefaction potential with the damage costs. The results indicated that the proposed new method enables to evaluate the probability of liquefaction, to estimate the damage costs using the hazard curv e, fragility curve induced by liquefaction, and liq uefaction risk curve.

Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newth, D.; Gunasekera, D.

2010-08-01

Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

Heavy Metal Pollution, Fractionation, and Potential Ecological Risks in Sediments from Lake Chaohu (Eastern China) and the Surrounding Rivers

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lei; Liao, Qianjiahua; Shao, Shiguang; Zhang, Nan; Shen, Qiushi; Liu, Cheng

2015-01-01

Heavy metal (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb) pollution, fractionation, and ecological risks in the sediments of Lake Chaohu (Eastern China), its eleven inflowing rivers and its only outflowing river were studied. An improved BCR (proposed by the European Community Bureau of Reference) sequential extraction procedure was applied to fractionate heavy metals within sediments, a geoaccumulation index was used to assess the extent of heavy metal pollution, and a risk assessment code was applied to evaluate potential ecological risks. Heavy metals in the Shuangqiao and Nanfei Rivers were generally higher than the other studied sites. Of the three Lake Chaohu sites, the highest concentrations were identified in western Chaohu. Heavy metal pollution and ecological risks in the lake’s only outflowing river were similar to those in the eastern region of the lake, to which the river is connected. Heavy metal concentrations occurred in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > Pb ≈ Ni ≈ Cr. Cr, Ni, and Cu made up the largest proportion of the residual fraction, while Cd was the most prominent metal in the exchangeable and carbonate-included fraction. Cd posed the greatest potential ecological risk; the heavy metals generally posed risks in the following order: Cd > Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr. PMID:26561822

Occupational and environmental risk factors for chronic rhinosinusitis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sundaresan, Agnes S; Hirsch, Annemarie G; Storm, Margaret; Tan, Bruce K; Kennedy, Thomas L; Greene, J Scott; Kern, Robert C; Schwartz, Brian S

2015-11-01

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a prevalent and disabling paranasal sinus disease, with a likely multifactorial etiology potentially including hazardous occupational and environmental exposures. We completed a systematic review of the occupational and environmental literature to evaluate the quality of evidence of the role that hazardous exposures might play in CRS. We searched PubMed for studies of CRS and following exposure categories: occupation, employment, work, industry, air pollution, agriculture, farming, environment, chemicals, roadways, disaster, and traffic. We abstracted information from the final set of articles across 6 primary domains: study design; population; exposures evaluated; exposure assessment; CRS definition; and results. We identified 41 articles from 1080 manuscripts: 37 occupational risk papers, 1 environmental risk paper, and 3 papers studying both categories of exposures. None of the 41 studies used a CRS definition consistent with current diagnostic guidelines. Exposure assessment was generally dependent on self-report or binary measurements of exposure based on industry of employment. Only grain, dairy, and swine operations among farmers were evaluated by more than 1 study using a common approach to defining CRS, but employment in these settings was not consistently associated with CRS. The multiple other exposures did not meet quality standards for reporting associations or were not evaluated by more than 1 study. The current state of the literature allows us to make very few conclusions about the role of hazardous occupational or environmental exposures in CRS, leaving a critical knowledge gap regarding potentially modifiable risk factors for disease onset and progression. © 2015 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

Natural Attenuation of Hexavalent Chromium in Groundwater and Soils

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Concerns about the impact of chromium on human health and the environment require an evaluation of the potential risk of chromium entering the groundwater flow system and being transported beyond compliance boundaries.

Characterizing risk assessments for the development of occupational exposure limits for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Kuempel, E D; Drew, N M

2018-06-01

The commercialization of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) began in the early 2000's. Since then the number of commercial products and the number of workers potentially exposed to ENMs is growing, as is the need to evaluate and manage the potential health risks. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) have been developed for some of the first generation of ENMs. These OELs have been based on risk assessments that progressed from qualitative to quantitative as nanotoxicology data became available. In this paper, that progression is characterized. It traces OEL development through the qualitative approach of general groups of ENMs based primarily on read-across with other materials to quantitative risk assessments for nanoscale particles including titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, silver nanoparticles, and cellulose nanocrystals. These represent prototypic approaches to risk assessment and OEL development for ENMs. Such substance-by-substance efforts are not practical given the insufficient data for many ENMs that are currently being used or potentially entering commerce. Consequently, categorical approaches are emerging to group and rank ENMs by hazard and potential health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are described, and future derivations and research needs are discussed. Critical needs in moving forward with understanding the health effects of the numerous EMNs include more standardized and accessible quantitative data on the toxicity and physicochemical properties of ENMs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Spontaneous preterm birth and single nucleotide gene polymorphisms: a recent update.

PubMed

Sheikh, Ishfaq A; Ahmad, Ejaz; Jamal, Mohammad S; Rehan, Mohd; Assidi, Mourad; Tayubi, Iftikhar A; AlBasri, Samera F; Bajouh, Osama S; Turki, Rola F; Abuzenadah, Adel M; Damanhouri, Ghazi A; Beg, Mohd A; Al-Qahtani, Mohammed

2016-10-17

Preterm birth (PTB), birth at <37 weeks of gestation, is a significant global public health problem. World-wide, about 15 million babies are born preterm each year resulting in more than a million deaths of children. Preterm neonates are more prone to problems and need intensive care hospitalization. Health issues may persist through early adulthood and even be carried on to the next generation. Majority (70 %) of PTBs are spontaneous with about a half without any apparent cause and the other half associated with a number of risk factors. Genetic factors are one of the significant risks for PTB. The focus of this review is on single nucleotide gene polymorphisms (SNPs) that are reported to be associated with PTB. A comprehensive evaluation of studies on SNPs known to confer potential risk of PTB was done by performing a targeted PubMed search for the years 2007-2015 and systematically reviewing all relevant studies. Evaluation of 92 studies identified 119 candidate genes with SNPs that had potential association with PTB. The genes were associated with functions of a wide spectrum of tissue and cell types such as endocrine, tissue remodeling, vascular, metabolic, and immune and inflammatory systems. A number of potential functional candidate gene variants have been reported that predispose women for PTB. Understanding the complex genomic landscape of PTB needs high-throughput genome sequencing methods such as whole-exome sequencing and whole-genome sequencing approaches that will significantly enhance the understanding of PTB. Identification of high risk women, avoidance of possible risk factors, and provision of personalized health care are important to manage PTB.

Agency perspectives on food safety for the products of animal biotechnology.

PubMed

Howard, H J; Jones, K M; Rudenko, L

2012-08-01

Animal biotechnology represents one subset of tools among a larger set of technologies for potential use to meet increasing world demands for food. Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) such as artificial insemination and embryo transfer continue to make positive contributions in food animal production. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) performed a comprehensive risk assessment to identify potential food consumption or animal health risks associated with animal cloning, an emerging ART. At that time, FDA concluded that animal cloning posed no unique risks either to animal health or to food consumption, and food from animal clones and their sexually reproduced offspring required no additional federal regulation beyond that applicable to conventionally bred animals of the species examined. At this time, no new information has arisen that would necessitate a change in FDA's conclusions on food from animal clones or their sexually reproduced offspring. Use of recombinant DNA technologies to produce genetically engineered (GE) animals represents another emerging technology with potential to impact food animal production. In its regulation of GE animals, FDA follows a cumulative, risk-based approach to address scientific questions related to the GE animals. FDA evaluates data and information on the safety, effectiveness and stability of the GE event. FDA carries out its review at several levels (e.g. molecular biology, animal safety, food safety, environmental safety and claim validation). GE animal sponsors provide data to address risk questions for each level. This manuscript discusses FDA's role in evaluation of animal cloning and GE animals. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Do Elderly Patients Experience Increased Perioperative or Postoperative Morbidity or Mortality When Given Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Before Esophagectomy?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fogh, Shannon E., E-mail: foghse@radonc.ucsf.edu; Yu, Anthony; Kubicek, Gregory J.

2011-08-01

Background: The use of induction chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery has been widely used for the treatment of esophageal cancer. The presumed risk of increased postoperative morbidity and mortality with this regimen has led to reluctance to offer this therapy to elderly patients. We compared the perioperative morbidity and mortality of patients 70 years old and older with those of patients younger than 70 who received CRT followed by esophagectomy and sought to identify preoperative risk factors that may predict higher risk of postoperative death or complications. Methods and Materials: We identified 260 patients who underwent preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by esophagectomy.more » The association of age with postoperative death and complications was evaluated. The Charlson index, prior cardiac history, and diabetes were identified as preoperative risk factors and were evaluated as potential confounders or effect modifiers. Results: Cardiac disease and the Charlson index were potential modifiers of the effect of age on length of hospital stay (p = 0.08 and p = 0.07, respectively) and postoperative complications (p = 0.1 and p = 0.2) but were not statistically significant. There was a slight nonsignificant decrease in the risk of death in elderly patients after adjustment for the Charlson index (p = 0.2). Conclusion: No significant differences were detected with respect to morbidity and mortality in elderly patients. The presence of cardiac disease, higher scores on the Charlson index, or diabetes did not significantly influence length of stay, postoperative complications, or postoperative death. Given the potential to improve outcomes, this regimen should not be discounted in elderly patients.« less

A risk-based approach for assessing the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material as road sub-base filler material.

PubMed

Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Spagnuolo, Riccardo; Gavasci, Renato; Lombardi, Francesco

2018-01-01

In this work we present an integrated risk-based approach that can be used to evaluate the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material such as incineration bottom ash (BA) as unbound material for road sub-base construction. This approach, which is aimed at assessing potential risks to the groundwater resource (in terms of drinking water quality) and human health associated to the leaching of contaminants from the BA, couples the results of leaching tests for the estimation of source concentrations with the fate and transport models usually adopted in risk assessment procedures. The effects of weathering and of the type of leaching test employed to evaluate eluate concentrations were assessed by carrying out different simulations using the results of laboratory leaching tests. Specifically, pH-dependence and column percolation leaching tests were performed on freshly collected and 1-year naturally weathered BA samples produced from a grate-fired incineration plant treating Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). To evaluate a broad span of possible scenario conditions, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed running 5000 simulations, randomly varying the input parameters within the ranges expected in the field. In nearly all the simulated conditions, the concentrations of contaminants in the groundwater for the specific type of BA tested in this work were well below EU and WHO drinking water quality criteria. Nevertheless, some caution should be paid in the case of the establishment of acidic conditions in the field since in this case the concentration of some elements (i.e. Al, Pb and Zn) is expected to exceed threshold values. In terms of risks to human health, for the considered utilization scenario the probability of exceeding the acceptable reference dose for water ingestion was usually less than 1% (except for Cr and Pb for which the probability was lower than 3.5% and 7%, respectively). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of potentially achievable vaccination coverage of the second dose of measles containing vaccine with simultaneous administration and risk factors for missed opportunities among children in Zhejiang province, east China.

PubMed

Hu, Yu; Chen, Yaping; Wang, Ying; Liang, Hui

2018-04-03

This study aimed to evaluate the potential achievable coverage of the second dose of measles containing vaccine (MCV2) when the protocol of simultaneous administration of childhood vaccines was fully implemented. Risk factors for missed opportunity (MO) for simultaneous administration of MCV2 were also investigated. Children born from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2014 and registered in Zhejiang provincial immunization information system were enrolled in this study. The MO of simultaneous administration of MCV2, the actual age-appropriate coverage (AAC) of MCV2 and the potentially achievable coverage (PAC) of MCV2 were evaluated and compared across different birth cohorts, by different socio-demographic variables. For the 2014 birth cohort, logistic regression model was used to detect the risk factors of MOs, from both socio-demographic and vaccination service providing aspects. Compared to the AAC, the PAC of MCV2 increased significantly from 2005 birth cohort to 2014 birth cohort (p<0.001), with a median of 12.7 percentage points. Higher birth order of children, resident children, higher maternal education background, higher socio-economic development level of resident areas, less frequent vaccination service, and shorter vaccination service time were significant risk factors of MO for simultaneous administration of MCV2, with all p-value < 0.05. The findings in this study suggest that fully utilization of all opportunities for simultaneous administration of all age-eligible vaccine doses at the same vaccination visit is critical for achieving the coverage target of 95% for MCV2. Future interventions focusing on the group with risk factors observed could substantially eliminate MOs for simultaneous administration of MCV2, further to improve the coverage of fully immunization of MCV, and finally achieve the goal of eliminating measles.

Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

PubMed Central

Sridhara, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

2017-01-01

Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing biomarkers and to evaluate the potential for biomarkers to inform models of post exposure cancer risk. Because cellular stress response pathways to space radiation and environmental carcinogens share common nodes, biomarker-driven risk models may be broadly applicable for estimating risks for other carcinogens. PMID:27345199

Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

2016-06-01

Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing biomarkers and to evaluate the potential for biomarkers to inform models of post exposure cancer risk. Because cellular stress response pathways to space radiation and environmental carcinogens share common nodes, biomarker-driven risk models may be broadly applicable for estimating risks for other carcinogens.

Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

PubMed

Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

2016-06-01

Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing biomarkers and to evaluate the potential for biomarkers to inform models of post exposure cancer risk. Because cellular stress response pathways to space radiation and environmental carcinogens share common nodes, biomarker-driven risk models may be broadly applicable for estimating risks for other carcinogens. Copyright © 2016 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). All rights reserved.

[Investigation on nickel contamination of food and potential health risk of dietary nickel in Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Wang, Caixia; Hu, Jiawei; Cheng, Guoxia; Liu, Yu; Li, Tianlai

2016-11-01

To understand the content level of nickel in all kinds of foods, and to assess the daily intake of nickel and the possible adverse health impact. Statistical analysis of the nickel contents of 1872 samples. The dietary intake of nickel was obtained using the test results and the results of Shaanxi total diet study in 2002. The safety of dietary nickel was evaluated by using the tolerable daily intake( TDI)recommended by WHO. The health risk was assessed by using USEPA health risk assessment model. The content of nickel ranged from 0. 0586 to 0. 210 mg/kg in seven kinds of food, and the nickel content of cereals was higher than other kinds, the value of which was 3. 30 mg/kg. The average and the higher dietary intake of nickel were2. 17 μg/( kg·d) and 11. 2 μg/( kg·d), respectively. The rates of which were 18% and94%, compared to TDI value. That showed a potential health risk from Ni via dietary exposure for the people highly exposured. Because there was inadequate evidence for carcinogenicity of nickel, if nickel was non carcinogenic elements, the individual health risk of nickel was lower than the standard of ICRP. In contrast, the individual health riskof nickel was higher than the standard, which means a potential health risk for Shaanxi habitants. This study showed a potential health risk from Ni via dietary exposure for the people highly exposured.

Evaluation of the potential carcinogenicity of 4-chloro-o-toluidine hydrochloride (3165-93-3). Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-06-01

4-Chloro-o-toluidine hydrochloride is a probable human carcinogen, classified as weight-of-evidence Group B2 under the EPA Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. Evidence on potential carcinogenicity from animal studies is Sufficient, and the evidence from human studies is No Data. The potency factor (F) for 4-chloro-o-toluidine hydrochloride is estimated to be 0.40 (mg/kg/day)(-1), placing it in potency group 3 according to the CAG's methodology for evaluating potential carcinogens. Combining the weight-of-evidence group and the potency group, 4-chloro-o-toluidine hydrochloride is assigned a LOW hazard ranking.

Considering Tangible Benefit for Interdependent Donors: Extending a Risk-Benefit Framework in Donor Selection.

PubMed

Van Pilsum Rasmussen, S E; Henderson, M L; Kahn, J; Segev, D

2017-10-01

From its infancy, live donor transplantation has operated within a framework of acceptable risk to donors. Such a framework presumes that risks of living donation are experienced by the donor while all benefits are realized by the recipient, creating an inequitable distribution that demands minimization of donor risk. We suggest that this risk-tolerance framework ignores tangible benefits to the donor. A previously proposed framework more fully considers potential benefits to the donor and argues that risks and benefits must be balanced. We expand on this approach, and posit that donors sharing a household with and/or caring for a potential transplant patient may realize tangible benefits that are absent in a more distantly related donation (e.g. cousin, nondirected). We term these donors, whose well-being is closely tied to their recipient, "interdependent donors." A flexible risk-benefit model that combines risk assessment with benefits to interdependent donors will contribute to donor evaluation and selection that more accurately reflects what is at stake for donors. In so doing, a risk-benefit framework may allow some donors to accept greater risk in donation decisions. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

[Orophagyngeal Dysphagia in Older Persons - Evaluation and Therapeutic Options].

PubMed

Wirth, Rainer; Lueg, Gero; Dziewas, Rainer

2018-02-01

The prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in older persons is high. Because it is frequently undetected, screening tests should be applied in risk groups. If the screening test is positive or typical risk factors are present, an instrumental assessment should be utilized. Objective diagnostic tools such as endoscopic evaluation and videofluoroscopy allow the description of the individual dysphagia pattern, which is the basis for an individualized treatment. The endoscopic evaluation of swallowing is increasingly used because it includes several advantages. Potential therapeutic strategies are multifaceted. The evidence for the effectiveness of adaptive, compensatory and rehabilitative strategies is growing, supporting the evolution of dysphagia therapy to an evidence based treatment. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

International Space Station (ISS) Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) Wet Storage Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Michael D.; Rotter, Henry A.; Lee, Jason; Packham, Nigel; Brady, Timothy K.; Kelly, Robert; Ott, C. Mark

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) Program requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to evaluate the risks posed by the practice of long-term wet storage of ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) regeneration system orbital replacement units (ORUs). The ISS ECLS regeneration system removes water from urine and humidity condensate and converts it into potable water and oxygen. A total of 29 ORUs are in the ECLS system, each designed to be replaced by the ISS crew when necessary. The NESC assembled a team to review the ISS ECLS regeneration system and evaluate the potential for biofouling and corrosion. This document contains the outcome of the evaluation.

Nursing Workload as a Risk Factor for Healthcare Associated Infections in ICU: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Daud-Gallotti, Renata M.; Costa, Silvia F.; Guimarães, Thais; Padilha, Katia Grillo; Inoue, Evelize Naomi; Vasconcelos, Tiago Nery; da Silva Cunha Rodrigues, Fernanda; Barbosa, Edizângela Vasconcelos; Figueiredo, Walquíria Barcelos; Levin, Anna S.

2012-01-01

Introduction Nurse understaffing is frequently hypothesized as a potential risk factor for healthcare-associated infections (HAI). This study aimed to evaluate the role of nursing workload in the occurrence of HAI, using Nursing Activities Score (NAS). Methods This prospective cohort study enrolled all patients admitted to 3 Medical ICUs and one step-down unit during 3 months (2009). Patients were followed-up until HAI, discharge or death. Information was obtained from direct daily observation of medical and nursing rounds, chart review and monitoring of laboratory system. Nursing workload was determined using NAS. Non-compliance to the nurses’ patient care plans (NPC) was identified. Demographic data, clinical severity, invasive procedures, hospital interventions, and the occurrence of other adverse events were also recorded. Patients who developed HAI were compared with those who did not. Results 195 patients were included and 43 (22%) developed HAI: 16 pneumonia, 12 urinary-tract, 8 bloodstream, 2 surgical site, 2 other respiratory infections and 3 other. Average NAS and average proportion of non compliance with NPC were significantly higher in HAI patients. They were also more likely to suffer other adverse events. Only excessive nursing workload (OR: 11.41; p: 0.019) and severity of patient’s clinical condition (OR: 1.13; p: 0.015) remained as risk factors to HAI. Conclusions Excessive nursing workload was the main risk factor for HAI, when evaluated together with other invasive devices except mechanical ventilation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate prospectively the nursing workload as a potential risk factor for HAI, using NAS. PMID:23300645

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: challenges and limitations.

PubMed

Eastmond, David A; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; French, John E; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2013-09-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53⁺/⁻, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program's conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals.

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: Challenges and limitations*

PubMed Central

Eastmond, David A.; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V.; French, John E.; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2015-01-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53+/−, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program’s conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals. PMID:23985072

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-12-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker ( Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyere, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

2012-01-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems

PubMed Central

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A.; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%. PMID:29854153

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems.

PubMed

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%.

Evidence on global medical travel

PubMed Central

Záliš, Ladislav; Meurice, Christopher R; Hilton, Ian; Ly, Terry-Lisa; Zupan, Zorana; Hinrichs, Saba

2015-01-01

Abstract The potential benefits of travelling across national borders to obtain medical treatment include improved care, decreased costs and reduced waiting times. However, medical travel involves additional risks, compared to obtaining treatment domestically. We review the publicly-available evidence on medical travel. We suggest that medical travel needs to be understood in terms of its potential risks and benefits so that it can be evaluated against alternatives by patients who are seeking care. We propose three domains –quality standards, informed decision-making, economic and legal protection – in which better evidence could support the development of medical travel policies. PMID:26549906

Cities without cavities: democracy, risk, and public health.

PubMed

Carstairs, Catherine

2010-01-01

This essay examines the history of fluoride debates in four Canadian cities. It argues that fluoride's opponents were primarily motivated by what they saw as the health and environmental risks of adding fluoride to the water supply. They also believed that fluoridating the public water supply was a fundamental violation of civil liberties. The fluoride debates have much to teach us about how people evaluate potential health risks and how they respond to state interventions in the field of public health.

Water and sediment characteristics associated with avian botulism outbreaks in wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocke, Tonie E.; Samuel, Michael D.

1999-01-01

Avian botulism kills thousands of waterbirds annually throughout North America, but management efforts to reduce its effects have been hindered because environmental conditions that promote outbreaks are poorly understood. We measured sediment and water variables in 32 pairs of wetlands with and without a current outbreak of avian botulism. Wetlands with botulism outbreaks had greater percent organic matter (POM) in the sediment (P = 0.088) and lower redox potential in the water (P = 0.096) than paired control wetlands. We also found that pH, redox potential, temperature, and salinity measured just above the sediment-water interface were associated (P ≤ 0.05) with the risk of botulism outbreaks in wetlands, but relations were complex, involving nonlinear and multivariate associations. Regression models indicated that the risk of botulism outbreaks increased when water pH was between 7.5 and 9.0, redox potential was negative, and water temperature was >20°C. Risk declined when redox potential increased (>100), water temperature decreased (10-15°C), pH was 9.0, or salinity was low (<2.0 ppt). Our predictive models could allow managers to assess potential effects of wetland management practices on the risk of botulism outbreaks and to develop and evaluate alternative management strategies to reduce losses from avian botulism.

Direct and indirect risk associated with the use of dietary supplements among persons with dementia in a Norwegian memory clinic.

PubMed

Risvoll, Hilde; Giverhaug, Trude; Halvorsen, Kjell H; Waaseth, Marit; Musial, Frauke

2017-05-12

The use of dietary supplements (DS) is common among persons with dementia. Direct risks associated with DS use include adverse events and DS-drug interactions. A direct risk is a risk caused by the treatment itself. Indirect risks are related to the treatment setting, such as the conditions of use, and not to the treatment itself. Because dementia symptoms may reduce a person's ability to cope with the administration of DS, the use of DS may pose a threat to safety as an indirect risk. The aim of this study was to describe the extent of DS use among persons with dementia in ambulatory care and to identify some relevant direct and indirect risks related to DS use. We conducted a survey among 151 persons with dementia attending an outpatient memory clinic in Northern Norway. Study measurements included: the participants' characteristics, cognitive functioning, functioning in the activities of daily living (ADL), and the use of DS and prescription drugs (PD). We assessed direct risks by evaluating potential DS-drug interactions and indirect risks by evaluating the conditions under which it was used. Forty-six percent (n = 70) of the persons with dementia used DS. Ninety-seven percent (n = 147) used PD. We found potentially clinically relevant DS-drug interactions representing a direct risk in eight persons with dementia (11% of users). While only 36% (n = 26) of the participants received assistance with the administration of DS, 73% (n = 106) received assistance with the administration of PD. Persons with dementia living alone were at risk of not receiving assistance, as home care service seldom was involved in DS administration. Data indicated that assistance with DS administration was not provided for all persons with dementia in need, representing an indirect risk to these persons. Only one-third of the persons with dementia and half of the caregivers were aware of the general risks of adverse events and interactions associated with the use of DS. Persons with dementia use DS frequently, yet DS use may be associated with direct and indirect risks to patient safety as potentially clinically relevant interactions were discovered and DS intake often was unsupervised.

Heavy metal contamination and risk assessment in water, paddy soil, and rice around an electroplating plant.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Tran, Henry; Wang, Dun-Qiu; Zhu, Yi-Nian

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of long-term electroplating industrial activities on heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils and potential health risks for local residents. Water, soil, and rice samples were collected from sites upstream (control) and downstream of the electroplating wastewater outlet. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined by an atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Fractionation and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to evaluate the environmental risks of heavy metals in soils. The health risk index (HRI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated to assess potential health risks to local populations through rice consumption. Hazardous levels of Cu, Cr, and Ni were observed in water and paddy soils at sites near the plant. According to the RAC analysis, the soils showed a high risk for Ni and a medium risk for Cu and Cr at certain sites. The rice samples were primarily contaminated with Ni, followed by Cr and Cu. HRI values >1 were not found for any heavy metal. However, HI values for adults and children were 2.075 and 1.808, respectively. Water, paddy soil, and rice from the studied area have been contaminated by Cu, Cr, and Ni. The contamination of these elements is related to the electroplating wastewater. Although no single metal poses health risks for local residents through rice consumption, the combination of several metals may threaten the health of local residents. Cu and Ni are the key components contributing to the potential health risks.

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

PubMed

Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-01-01

The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of equine infectious disease transmission by non-race horse movements in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Nishiguchi, Akiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2010-07-01

For determining surveillance programs or infectious disease countermeasures, risk evaluation approaches have been recently undertaken in the field of animal health. In the present study, to help establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases, we evaluated the potential risk of equine infectious disease transmission in non-race horses from the viewpoints of horse movements and health management practices by conducting a survey of non-race horse holdings. From the survey, the non-race horse population was classified into the following five sectors based on their purposes: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, fattening sector and others. Our survey results showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had the largest population sizes, and movements between and within these sectors occurred quite frequently, while there was little movement in the other sectors. Qualitative evaluation showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had relatively high risks of equine infectious disease transmission through horse movements. Therefore, it would be effective to concentrate on these two sectors when implementing surveillance or preventative measures. Special priority should be given to the private owner sector because this sector has not implemented inspection and vaccination well compared with the equestrian sector, which possesses a high compliance rate for these practices. This qualitative risk evaluation focused on horse movements and health management practices could provide a basis for further risk evaluation to establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases.

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.; Limero, T. F.; Lam, C. W.; Billica, Roger (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) Risk Management Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urban, Mary Elizabeth

Risk is a factor, element, constraint, or course of action that introduces an uncertainty of outcome that could impact project objectives. Risk is an inherent part of all activities, whether the activity is simple and small, or large and complex. Risk management is a process that identifies, evaluates, handles, and monitors risks that have the potential to affect project success. The risk management process spans the entire project, from its initiation to its successful completion and closeout, including both technical and programmatic (non-technical) risks. This Risk Management Plan (RMP) defines the process to be used for identifying, evaluating, handling, andmore » monitoring risks as part of the overall management of the Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) ‘Project’. Given the changing nature of the project environment, risk management is essentially an ongoing and iterative process, which applies the best efforts of a knowledgeable project staff to a suite of focused and prioritized concerns. The risk management process itself must be continually applied throughout the project life cycle. This document was prepared in accordance with DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, its associated guide for risk management DOE G 413.3-7, Risk Management Guide, and LANL ADPM AP-350-204, Risk and Opportunity Management.« less

15 CFR 27.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Evaluation and disposition of... Section 27.120 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS... subjects, the adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the...

Comprehensive managed care evaluation.

PubMed

Bushick, B

1992-01-01

To optimize the benefits of managed care delivery systems, employers must identify and reward those systems that are most efficient and effective. At the same time, their deeper involvement in system design and management exposes employers to greater potential liability. Employers thus need to better evaluate their managed care programs in order to enhance the benefits and minimize the risks.

28 CFR 46.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Section 46.120 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 46... adequacy of protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge gained or to be gained. (b) On the basis of this evaluation...

22 CFR 225.120 - Evaluation and disposition of applications and proposals for research to be conducted or...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

....120 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS § 225.120... protection against these risks, the potential benefits of the research to the subjects and others, and the importance of the knowledge gained or to be gained. (b) On the basis of this evaluation, the department or...

HIGH THROUGHPUT ASSESSMENTS OF CONVENTIONAL AND ALTERNATIVE COMPOUNDS

EPA Science Inventory

High throughput approaches for quantifying chemical hazard, exposure, and sustainability have the potential to dramatically impact the pace and nature of risk assessments. Integrated evaluation strategies developed at the US EPA incorporate inherency,bioactivity,bioavailability, ...

HUMAN HEALTH RISK EVALUATION OF WEATHERED TOXAPHENE

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal/estuarine sediments are repositories for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Sediment-associated POPs such as the chlorinated pesticide toxaphene accumulate in aquatic wildlife with the potential for transferred to higher organisms (fish, marine mammals, birds, humans) ...

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 749 - Catastrophic Act Preparedness Guidelines

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... disaster. (1) A business impact analysis to evaluate potential threats; (2) A risk assessment to determine... the plan; ii. Preservation and ability to restore vital records; iii. A method for restoring vital...

Anterior Shoulder Instability in the Military Athlete.

PubMed

Waterman, Brian; Owens, Brett D; Tokish, John M

Given its young, predominately male demographics and intense physical demands, the US military remains an ideal cohort for the study of anterior shoulder instability. A literature search of PubMed, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Database was performed to identify all peer-reviewed publications from 1950 to 2016 from US military orthopaedic surgeons focusing on the management of anterior shoulder instability. Clinical review. Level 4. The incidence of anterior shoulder instability events in the military occurs at an order of magnitude greater than in civilian populations, with rates as high as 3% per year among high-risk groups. With more than 90% risk of a Bankart lesion and high risk for instability recurrence, the military has advocated for early intervention of first-time shoulder instability while documenting up to 76% relative risk reduction versus nonoperative treatment. Preoperative evaluation with advanced radiographic imaging should be used to evaluate for attritional bone loss or "off-track" engaging defects to guide comprehensive surgical management. With complex recurrent shoulder instability and/or cases of clinically significant osseous lesions, potential options such as remplissage, anterior open capsular procedures, or bone augmentation procedures may be preferentially considered. Careful risk stratification, clinical evaluation, and selective surgical management for at-risk military patients with anterior shoulder instability can optimize the recurrence risk and functional outcome in this population.

Speciation and environmental risk assessment of heavy metal in bio-oil from liquefaction/pyrolysis of sewage sludge.

PubMed

Yuan, Xingzhong; Leng, Lijian; Huang, Huajun; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Hou; Xiao, Zhihua; Zhai, Yunbo; Chen, Hongmei; Zeng, Guangming

2015-02-01

Liquefaction bio-oil (LBO) produced with ethanol (or acetone) as the solvent and pyrolysis bio-oil (PBO) produced at 550°C (or 850°C) from sewage sludge (SS) were produced, and were characterized and evaluated in terms of their heavy metal (HM) composition. The total concentration, speciation and leaching characteristic of HMs (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Ni) in both LBO and PBO were investigated. The total concentration and exchangeable fraction of Zn and Ni in bio-oils were at surprisingly high levels. Quantitative risk assessment of HM in bio-oils was performed by the method of risk assessment code (RAC), potential ecological risk index (PERI) and geo-accumulation index (GAI). Ni in bio-oil produced by pyrolysis at 850°C (PBO850) and Zn in bio-oil by liquefaction at 360°C with ethanol as solvent (LBO-360E) were evaluated to possess very high risk to the environment according to RAC. Additionally, Cd in PBO850 and LBO-360E were evaluated by PERI to have very high risk and high risk, respectively, while Cd in all bio-oils was assessed moderately contaminated according to GAI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre- and posttest evaluation of a breast cancer risk assessment program for nurse practitioners.

PubMed

Edwards, Quannetta T; Seibert, Diane

2010-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that healthcare providers, including nurse practitioners (NPs) fail to provide breast cancer risk assessment (BrCRA) in primary care settings. A potential barrier to the use of BrCRA is insufficient knowledge or training of risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of a BrCRA program developed to enhance NPs' knowledge of risk assessment and use of empiric risk assessment models. Thirty-five NPs participated in a before-after (pretest-posttest design) study evaluating the effectiveness of a BrCRA education program conducted at a national NP conference. Demographics, pre/post knowledge, and course satisfaction measures were all examined as a part of this pilot study. Continuing education through the implementation of a BrCRA program significantly increased NPs knowledge in assessing breast cancer risk and the use of empiric risk assessment models. Many healthcare providers, including NPs, are inadequately prepared to assess a woman's risk for breast cancer. Understanding breast cancer risk assessment is essential if NPs are to provide appropriate counseling, management, and referral strategies needed to reduce a woman's risk for developing the disease. Continuing education provides one means to enhance NP's knowledge of BrCRA.

Contamination potential of nitrogen compounds in the heterogeneous aquifers of the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2005-10-01

This study aimed to analyze the contamination potential associated with the reactive transport of nitrate-N and ammonium-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan and to evaluate a risk region in developing a groundwater protection policy in 2021. In this area, an aquifer redox sequence provided a good understanding of the spatial distributions of nitrate-N and ammonium-N and of aerobic and anaerobic environments. Equiprobable hydraulic conductivity ( K) fields reproduced by geostatistical methods characterized the spatial uncertainty of contaminant transport in the heterogeneous aquifer. Nitrogen contamination potential fronts for high and low threshold concentrations based on a 95% risk probability were used to assess different levels of risk. The simulated result reveals that the spatial uncertainty of highly heterogeneous K fields governs the contamination potential assessment of the nitrogen compounds along the regional flow directions. The contamination potential of nitrate-N is more uncertain than that for ammonium-N. The high nitrate-N concentrations (≧ 3 mg/L) are prevalent in the aerobic environment. The low concentration nitrate-N plumes (0.5-3 mg/L) gradually migrate to the mid-fan area and to a maximum distance of 15 km from the aerobic region. The nitrate-N plumes pose a potential human health risk in the aerobic and anaerobic environments. The ammonium-N plumes remain stably confined to the distal-fan and partial mid-fan areas.

CACODYLIC ACID (DMAV): METABOLISM AND ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The cacodylic acid (DMAV) issue paper discusses the metabolism and pharmacokinetics of the various arsenical chemicals; evaluates the appropriate dataset to quantify the potential cancer risk to the organic arsenical herbicides; provides an evaluation of the mode of carcinogenic action (MOA) for DMAV including a consideration of the key events for bladder tumor formation in rats, other potential modes of action; and also considers the human relevance of the proposed animal MOA. As part of tolerance reassessment under the Food Quality Protection Act for the August 3, 2006 deadline, the hazard of cacodylic acid is being reassessed.

Using Surveillance of Mental Health to Increase Understanding of Youth Involvement in High-Risk Behaviors: A Value-Added Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowdy, Erin; Furlong, Michael J.; Sharkey, Jill D.

2013-01-01

This study examined the potential utility of adding items that assessed youths' emotional and behavioral disorders to a commonly used surveillance survey. The goal was to evaluate whether the added items could enhance understanding of youths' involvement in high-risk behaviors. A sample of 3,331 adolescents in Grades 8, 10, and 12 from four…

Communication Technology Used among Parents and Their College Teens: Implications for College Health Promotion and Risk Prevention Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abar, Caitlin C.; Abar, Beau; Turrisi, Robert; Belden, Calum

2013-01-01

The current study examined the nature of parent-teen communication in college to re-evaluate the potential for parent inclusion in college success and risk prevention programs. During September 2006, 290 first-year college students were assessed for the frequency and form (e.g., cell phone, e-mail, text) of communication with their parents. Latent…

Can preferences in information processing aid in understanding suicide risk among emerging adults?

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Bryson, Claire N; Gardner, Brett O; Webber, Wesley B

2016-07-01

The present study evaluated emerging adult (n = 192 college students) preferences in information processing (PIP), defined by the need for affect (NFA) and need for cognition (NFC), as they may be associated with suicide risk. The following were direct indicators of elevated suicide risk: presence of lifetime exposure to suicide (i.e., lifetime yes/no), elevated depressive symptoms, and greater NFA avoidance. Two different interactions resulted in elevated suicide risk: high depressive symptoms and high NFA avoidance, and high NFC and high NFA. Present results concerning PIP hold the potential to inform suicide risk assessment and prevention efforts among young adults.

Space Radiation Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blakely, E.

Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland.

PubMed

Cummins, E; Kennedy, R; Cormican, M

2010-01-15

Cryptosporidium species are protozoan parasites associated with gastro-intestinal illness. Following a number of high profile outbreaks worldwide, it has emerged as a parasite of major public health concern. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to evaluate the annual risk of infection from Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland. The assessment considers the potential initial contamination levels in raw water, oocyst removal and decontamination events following various process stages, including coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. A number of scenarios were analysed to represent potential risks from public water supplies, group water schemes and private wells. Where surface water is used additional physical and chemical water treatment is important in terms of reducing the risk to consumers. The simulated annual risk of illness for immunocompetent individuals was below 1 x 10(-4) per year (as set by the US EPA) except under extreme contamination events. The risk for immunocompromised individuals was 2-3 orders of magnitude greater for the scenarios analysed. The model indicates a reduced risk of infection from tap water that has undergone microfiltration, as this treatment is more robust in the event of high contamination loads. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of watershed protection and the importance of adequate coagulation/flocculation in conventional treatment. The frequency of failure of the treatment process is the most important parameter influencing human risk in conventional treatment. The model developed in this study may be useful for local authorities, government agencies and other stakeholders to evaluate the likely risk of infection given some basic input data on source water and treatment processes used. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[High-grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. A retrospective postmortem case-control-study].

PubMed

Von Renteln-Kruse, W; Krause, T; Anders, J; Kühl, M; Heinemann, A; Püschel, K

2004-04-01

Some old persons at risk do develop, but others, at comparable risk, do not develop high-grade pressure sores. To evaluate potentially different risk factors, we performed a post mortem case-control study in old persons who developed high-grade pressure sores within six months until 14 days before death. Consecutive cases with pressure sores grade >/=3 and potential controls at comparably high risk for pressure sores were examined before cremation. After written informed consent had been obtained by the next relatives, all available nursing and medical records of the deceased were thoroughly evaluated. Cases and controls were matched according to age, gender, immobility, and cachexia.A total of 100 cases with 71 pressure sores grade 3 and 29 pressure sores grade 4 were compared to 100 controls with 27 pressure sores grade

Microarray assessment of virulence, antibiotic, and heavy metal resistance in an agricultural watershed creek.

PubMed

Unc, Adrian; Zurek, Ludek; Peterson, Greg; Narayanan, Sanjeev; Springthorpe, Susan V; Sattar, Syed A

2012-01-01

Potential risks associated with impaired surface water quality have commonly been evaluated by indirect description of potential sources using various fecal microbial indicators and derived source-tracking methods. These approaches are valuable for assessing and monitoring the impacts of land-use changes and changes in management practices at the source of contamination. A more detailed evaluation of putative etiologically significant genetic determinants can add value to these assessments. We evaluated the utility of using a microarray that integrates virulence genes with antibiotic and heavy metal resistance genes to describe and discriminate among spatially and seasonally distinct water samples from an agricultural watershed creek in Eastern Ontario. Because microarray signals may be analyzed as binomial distributions, the significance of ambiguous signals can be easily evaluated by using available off-the-shelf software. The FAMD software was used to evaluate uncertainties in the signal data. Analysis of multilocus fingerprinting data sets containing missing data has shown that, for the tested system, any variability in microarray signals had a marginal effect on data interpretation. For the tested watershed, results suggest that in general the wet fall season increased the downstream detection of virulence and resistance genes. Thus, the tested microarray technique has the potential to rapidly describe the quality of surface waters and thus to provide a qualitative tool to augment quantitative microbial risk assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

A potential gender bias in assessing quality of life - a standard gamble experiment among university students.

PubMed

Obaidi, Leath Al; Mahlich, Jörg

2015-01-01

There are several methodologies that can be used for evaluating patients' perception of their quality of life. Most commonly, utilities are directly elicited by means of either the time-trade-off or the standard-gamble method. In both methods, risk attitudes determine the quality of life values. Quality of life values among 31 Austrian undergraduate students were elicited by means of the standard gamble approach. The impact of several variables such as gender, side job, length of study, and living arrangements on the quality of life were identified using different types of regression techniques (ordinary least squares, generalized linear model, Betafit). Significant evidence was found that females are associated with a higher quality of life in all specifications of our estimations. The observed gender differences in quality of life can be attributed to a higher degree of risk aversion of women. A higher risk aversion leads to a higher valuation of given health states and a potential gender bias in health economic evaluations. This result could have implications for health policy planners when it comes to budget allocation decisions.

CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whittaker, Steve

CarbonSAFE Illinois is a a Feasibility study to develop an established geologic storage complex in Macon County, Illinois, for commercial-scale storage of industrially sourced CO2. Feasibility activities are focused on the Mt. Simon Storage Complex; a step-out well will be drilled near existing storage sites (i.e., the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium’s Illinois Basin – Decatur Project and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage Project) to further establish commercial viability of this complex and to evaluate EOR potential in a co-located oil-field trend. The Archer Daniels Midland facility (ethanol plant), City Water, Light, and Power in Springfield, Illinois (coal-fired powermore » station), and other regional industries are potential sources of anthropogenic CO2 for storage at this complex. Site feasibility will be evaluated through drilling results, static and dynamic modeling, and quantitative risk assessment. Both studies will entail stakeholder engagement, consideration of infrastructure requirements, existing policy, and business models. Project data will help calibrate the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Toolkit to better understand the risks of commercial-scale carbon storage.« less

Fractionation and potential toxic risk of metals from superficial sediment in Itaipu Lake--boundary between Brazil and Paraguay.

PubMed

Kalwa, Miguel; Quináia, Sueli Pércio; Pletsch, Adelmo L; Techy, Laura; Felsner, Maria Lurdes

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate fractions of metals (labile and pseudo-total) extracted from sediment samples collected in Itaipu Lake (boundary between Brazil and Paraguay) and to assess the dynamics and mobility of these fractions by identifying the same bioavailability and ecological risk to metals in the aquatic environment. The concentrations of metal ions were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. There was a correlation between the metal ions, both in the labile and the pseudo-total, with regard to particle size. To assess metals concentrations in sediment, numerical sediment-quality guidelines were applied. The concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc in all sediment samples are lower than the proposed probable effects level (PEL), thus possibly indicating that there are no harmful effects from these metals. In contrast, concentrations of copper, chromium, and nickel exceeded the PEL in some samples, thus indicating that these stations are at potential risk. The level of contamination in sediments of Itaipu Lake for all metals was evaluated using contamination factor, degree of contamination, and sum-of-metals toxic unit.

Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

2013-07-01

Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help identify the parameters needed for the assessment of the preservation state of a monument and its monitoring through its entire lifetime. The main tool for detecting these indicators is a diagnostic methodology based on appropriate standards that reveals the actual degradation processes responsible of the asset's vulnerability. It is very important that the integration between the material's diagnosis and the overall documentation is taken into consideration in order to identify the required levels of protection and preventive conservation for heritage assets depending on the most frequent local risks. The ranging of risks is therefore necessary according to their importance in each area. Documentation protocols provide with a specific diagnostic tool for materials characterization, decay diagnosis, evaluation process of former conservation materials and interventions, standard procedures for monitoring and control as well as data documentation based on specific guidelines and standards. Implementation and analysis of a "standardised" diagnostic study will reveal the main risks due to degradation processes affecting the heritage asset to be subsequently recorded in order to result into risk indicators. The development of risk indicators regarding degradation processes is the basic step towards uptaking efficient management, preventive conservation and strategic planning for heritage assets against various threats. These risk indicators could be further elaborated according to the activities of inspection, diagnosis and intervention works, offering scientific support to the decision making process for cultural heritage preventive conservation and overall protection.

A treatment program for individuals with deficient evaluative processing and consequent impaired social and risk judgement.

PubMed

Park, Norman W; Conrod, Brian; Hussain, Zahra; Murphy, Kelly J; Rewilak, Dmytro; Black, Sandra E

2003-01-01

The current study evaluated the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program developed to assist individuals such as AM who have impaired social and risk judgement. AM's difficulties developed after a severe traumatic brain injury that resulted in bilateral frontal and temporal lobe damage including damage to the amygdala. Previous work (Park et al., 2001) established that AM had impaired automatic processing of negative, but not positive evaluative information, and relatively spared processing of both types of evaluative information when using controlled or strategic processing. In the Strategic Evaluation of Alternatives (SEA) treatment program, AM was trained to compensate for his impairments by explicitly retrieving positive and negative attributes associated with potential actions prior to performing them. The SEA treatment focused specifically on improving AM's ability to obtain financial compensation for his work-related activities. Results showed improved performance on work-related activities and evidence of generalization. Analyses suggested that the process underlying improved performance was compensatory rather than restorative in nature. We discuss the implications of these results for the development of rehabilitation treatment for patients with impaired social and risk judgement.

SRS: Site ranking system for hazardous chemical and radioactive waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rechard, R.P.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Brown, S.L.

1988-05-01

This report describes the rationale and presents instructions for a site ranking system (SRS). SRS ranks hazardous chemical and radioactive waste sites by scoring important and readily available factors that influence risk to human health. Using SRS, sites can be ranked for purposes of detailed site investigations. SRS evaluates the relative risk as a combination of potentially exposed population, chemical toxicity, and potential exposure of release from a waste site; hence, SRS uses the same concepts found in a detailed assessment of health risk. Basing SRS on the concepts of risk assessment tends to reduce the distortion of results foundmore » in other ranking schemes. More importantly, a clear logic helps ensure the successful application of the ranking procedure and increases its versatility when modifications are necessary for unique situations. Although one can rank sites using a detailed risk assessment, it is potentially costly because of data and resources required. SRS is an efficient approach to provide an order-of-magnitude ranking, requiring only readily available data (often only descriptive) and hand calculations. Worksheets are included to make the system easier to understand and use. 88 refs., 19 figs., 58 tabs.« less

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct.

PubMed

Lee, Howard; Lee, Heechan; Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3-378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes.

Ecotoxicological assessment of biosolids by microcosms.

PubMed

Groth, Vitor Avelar; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana; da Silva, Eduardo Mendes; Niemeyer, Júlia Carina

2016-10-01

Biosolids have been applied as soil amendments to improve and maintain the soil fertility and faster plant growth. In spite of its beneficial use, the potential risks of land disposal should be analyzed, considering potential ecological receptors in soil and water. This work describes the use of an early warning laboratory microcosm system to evaluate the integrated ecotoxicological potential of two biosolids: BIO-1 and BIO-2 (18 and 28 months after landfarming, respectively), from an effluent treatment station in a petrochemical and industrial district. The endpoints related to habitat function were: a) germination, growth and biomass of Phaseolus vulgaris; b) survival, biomass and number of cocoons of Eisenia andrei (Oligochaeta) and; c) reproduction of Folsomia candida (Collembola). The retention function was evaluated by testing the leachates using the tropical cladoceran Latonopsis australis (Cladocera) in a 48-h acute toxicity test, and growth of the aquatic plant Lemna minor in a 7-d chronic test. Tropical artificial soil (TAS) and a natural soil (NS) from the region were used as control soils. Results showed no chronic toxicity of BIO-1 and BIO-2 to the soil organisms tested, but acute toxicity of BIO-1 in the leachate for 50% of L. australis, and chronic toxicity of both biosolid leachates to L. minor (inhibition of growth rate), indicating potential risks to aquatic ecosystems. The results confirmed the ability of this microcosm system as a rapid tool to assess biosolid toxicity over time and its potential for hazardous waste characterization in environmental risk assessment, in a screening phase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Cisplatin-Induced Nephrotoxicity and Potential of Magnesium Supplementation for Renal Protection

PubMed Central

Sakiyama, Tsutomu; Okamoto, Kunio; Tanaka, Kaoru; Takeda, Masayuki; Kaneda, Hiroyasu; Nishina, Shin-ichi; Tsurutani, Junji; Fujiwara, Kimiko; Nomura, Morihiro; Yamazoe, Yuzuru; Chiba, Yasutaka; Nishida, Shozo; Tamura, Takao; Nakagawa, Kazuhiko

2014-01-01

Background Nephrotoxicity remains a problem for patients who receive cisplatin chemotherapy. We retrospectively evaluated potential risk factors for cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity as well as the potential impact of intravenous magnesium supplementation on such toxicity. Patients and Methods We reviewed clinical data for 401 patients who underwent chemotherapy including a high dose (≥60 mg/m2) of cisplatin in the first-line setting. Nephrotoxicity was defined as an increase in the serum creatinine concentration of at least grade 2 during the first course of cisplatin chemotherapy, as assessed on the basis of National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. The severity of nephrotoxicity was evaluated on the basis of the mean change in the serum creatinine level. Magnesium was administered intravenously to 67 patients (17%). Results Cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity was observed in 127 patients (32%). Multivariable analysis revealed that an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 2 (risk ratio, 1.876; P = 0.004) and the regular use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (risk ratio, 1.357; P = 0.047) were significantly associated with an increased risk for cisplatin nephrotoxicity, whereas intravenous magnesium supplementation was associated with a significantly reduced risk for such toxicity (risk ratio, 0.175; P = 0.0004). The development of hypomagnesemia during cisplatin treatment was significantly associated with a greater increase in serum creatinine level (P = 0.0025). Magnesium supplementation therapy was also associated with a significantly reduced severity of renal toxicity (P = 0.012). Conclusions A relatively poor performance status and the regular use of NSAIDs were significantly associated with cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity, although the latter association was marginal. Our findings also suggest that the ability of magnesium supplementation to protect against the renal toxicity of cisplatin warrants further investigation in a prospective trial. PMID:25020203

Risk Assessment for Children Exposed to Beach Sands Impacted by Oil Spill Chemicals.

PubMed

Black, Jennifer C; Welday, Jennifer N; Buckley, Brian; Ferguson, Alesia; Gurian, Patrick L; Mena, Kristina D; Yang, Ill; McCandlish, Elizabeth; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M

2016-08-27

Due to changes in the drilling industry, oil spills are impacting large expanses of coastlines, thereby increasing the potential for people to come in contact with oil spill chemicals. The objective of this manuscript was to evaluate the health risk to children who potentially contact beach sands impacted by oil spill chemicals from the Deepwater Horizon disaster. To identify chemicals of concern, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) monitoring data collected during and immediately after the spill were evaluated. This dataset was supplemented with measurements from beach sands and tar balls collected five years after the spill. Of interest is that metals in the sediments were observed at similar levels between the two sampling periods; some differences were observed for metals levels in tar balls. Although PAHs were not observed five years later, there is evidence of weathered-oil oxidative by-products. Comparing chemical concentration data to baseline soil risk levels, three metals (As, Ba, and V) and four PAHs (benzo[a]pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and dibenz[a,h]anthracene) were found to exceed guideline levels prompting a risk assessment. For acute or sub-chronic exposures, hazard quotients, computed by estimating average expected contact behavior, showed no adverse potential health effects. For cancer, computations using 95% upper confidence limits for contaminant concentrations showed extremely low increased risk in the 10(-6) range for oral and dermal exposure from arsenic in sediments and from dermal exposure from benzo[a]pyrene and benz[a]anthracene in weathered oil. Overall, results suggest that health risks are extremely low, given the limitations of available data. Limitations of this study are associated with the lack of toxicological data for dispersants and oil-spill degradation products. We also recommend studies to collect quantitative information about children's beach play habits, which are necessary to more accurately assess exposure scenarios and health risks.

Risk Assessment for Children Exposed to Beach Sands Impacted by Oil Spill Chemicals

PubMed Central

Black, Jennifer C.; Welday, Jennifer N.; Buckley, Brian; Ferguson, Alesia; Gurian, Patrick L.; Mena, Kristina D.; Yang, Ill; McCandlish, Elizabeth; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M.

2016-01-01

Due to changes in the drilling industry, oil spills are impacting large expanses of coastlines, thereby increasing the potential for people to come in contact with oil spill chemicals. The objective of this manuscript was to evaluate the health risk to children who potentially contact beach sands impacted by oil spill chemicals from the Deepwater Horizon disaster. To identify chemicals of concern, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) monitoring data collected during and immediately after the spill were evaluated. This dataset was supplemented with measurements from beach sands and tar balls collected five years after the spill. Of interest is that metals in the sediments were observed at similar levels between the two sampling periods; some differences were observed for metals levels in tar balls. Although PAHs were not observed five years later, there is evidence of weathered-oil oxidative by-products. Comparing chemical concentration data to baseline soil risk levels, three metals (As, Ba, and V) and four PAHs (benzo[a]pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and dibenz[a,h]anthracene) were found to exceed guideline levels prompting a risk assessment. For acute or sub-chronic exposures, hazard quotients, computed by estimating average expected contact behavior, showed no adverse potential health effects. For cancer, computations using 95% upper confidence limits for contaminant concentrations showed extremely low increased risk in the 10−6 range for oral and dermal exposure from arsenic in sediments and from dermal exposure from benzo[a]pyrene and benz[a]anthracene in weathered oil. Overall, results suggest that health risks are extremely low, given the limitations of available data. Limitations of this study are associated with the lack of toxicological data for dispersants and oil-spill degradation products. We also recommend studies to collect quantitative information about children’s beach play habits, which are necessary to more accurately assess exposure scenarios and health risks. PMID:27618904

REMEDIAL INVESTIGATION REPORT FOR THE 200-CW-5 U POND & Z DITCHES & 200-CW-2 S POND & 200-SCW-R T POND & 200-SC-1 STEAM CONDENSATE GROUP OU

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BAUER, R.G.

2004-08-05

The purpose of this remedial investigation (RI) report is to evaluate the data generated during the RI and other characterization activities at the 200-CW-5 Operable Unit (OU) to (1) determine if sufficient data have been collected to support risk assessment and remedial decision making, (2) estimate risk at the representative sites based on data collected during the RI and on other existing data, (3) determine the need to proceed with a feasibility study (FS), and (4) determine which constituents and site-specific considerations need to be addressed in the FS. This RI report also provides data to support the evaluation ofmore » alternatives in the FS with regard to meeting potential applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements, risk reduction, and potentially significant data gaps (if any). This RI report includes an evaluation of the baseline risk using characterization data generated during the RI and significant data from other investigations (e.g., historical data from the 216-U-10 Pond and the 216-Z-1D, 216-Z-11, 216-U-14, and 216-Z-19 Ditches). Data generated during the RI will support the closeout of waste sites in the 200-CW-5 OU, as well as the waste sites in the 200-CW-2,200-CW-4, and 200-SC-1 consolidated OUs.« less

Web based collaborative decision making in flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evers, Mariele; Almoradie, Adrian; Jonoski, Andreja

2014-05-01

Stakeholder participation in the development of flood risk management (FRM) plans is essential since stakeholders often have a better understanding or knowledge of the potentials and limitation of their local area. Moreover, a participatory approach also creates trust amongst stakeholders, leading to a successful implementation of measures. Stakeholder participation however has its challenges and potential pitfalls that could lead to its premature termination. Such challenges and pitfalls are the limitation of financial resources, stakeholders' spatial distribution and their interest to participate. Different type of participation in FRM may encounter diverse challenges. These types of participation in FRM can be classified into (1) Information and knowledge sharing (IKS), (2) Consultative participation (CP) or (3) Collaborative decision making (CDM)- the most challenging type of participation. An innovative approach to address these challenges and potential pitfalls is a web-based mobile or computer-aided environment for stakeholder participation. This enhances the remote interaction between participating entities such as stakeholders. This paper presents a developed framework and an implementation of CDM web based environment for the Alster catchment (Hamburg, Germany) and Cranbrook catchment (London, UK). The CDM framework consists of two main stages: (1) Collaborative modelling and (2) Participatory decision making. This paper also highlights the stakeholder analyses, modelling approach and application of General Public License (GPL) technologies in developing the web-based environments. Actual test and evaluation of the environments was through series of stakeholders workshops. The overall results based from stakeholders' evaluation shows that web-based environments can address the challenges and potential pitfalls in stakeholder participation and it enhances participation in flood risk management. The web-based environment was developed within the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative Modelling and Management of Flood Risk) of the 2nd ERANET CRUE funding initiative.

Screening and Monitoring for Infectious Complications When Immunosuppressive Agents Are Studied in the Treatment of Autoimmune Disorders

PubMed Central

Loechelt, Brett J.; Green, Michael; Gottlieb, Peter A.; Blumberg, Emily; Weinberg, Adriana; Quinlan, Scott; Baden, Lindsey R.

2015-01-01

Significant progress has been made in the development, investigation, and clinical application of immunosuppressive agents to treat a variety of autoimmune disorders. The expansion of clinical applications of these new agents requires the performance of large multicenter clinical trials. These large clinical trials are particularly important as one considers these agents for the treatment of type 1 diabetes, which although autoimmune in its pathogenesis, is not classically treated as an autoimmune disorder. Although these agents hold promise for amelioration or cure of this disease, they have the potential to facilitate infectious complications. There are limited data regarding the prospective assessment of infectious risks with these agents in trials of this nature. Pediatric subjects may be at greater risk due to the higher likelihood of primary infection. A subgroup of experts associated with TrialNet (a National Institutes of Health [NIH]-funded Type 1 diabetes mellitus research network) with expertise in infectious diseases, immunology, and diagnostics developed an approach for screening and monitoring of immunosuppression-associated infections for prospective use in clinical trials. The goals of these recommendations are to provide a structured approach to monitor for infections, to identify specific laboratory testing and surveillance methods, and to consider therapies for treatment of these potential complications. Prospective evaluations of these infectious risks allow for greater scientific rigor in the evaluation of risk, which must be balanced with the potential benefits of these therapies. Our experience supports an important role for investigators with expertise in infections in immunocompromised individuals in protocol development of immunosuppressive trials in type 1diabetes and potentially other autoimmune diseases. PMID:26336066

White Oak Creek Watershed: Melton Valley Area Remedial Investigation Report, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Volume 3 Appendix C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report provides details on the baseline ecological risk assessment conducted in support of the Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for the Melton Valley areas of the White Oak Creek watershed (WOCW). The RI presents an analysis meant to enable the US Department of Energy (DOE) to pursue a series of remedial actions resulting in site cleanup and stabilization. The ecological risk assessment builds off of the WOCW screening ecological risk assessment. All information available for contaminated sites under the jurisdiction of the US Department of Energy`s Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act Federal Facilities Agreement within the White Oakmore » Creek (WOC) RI area has been used to identify areas of potential concern with respect to the presence of contamination posing a potential risk to ecological receptors within the Melton Valley area of the White Oak Creek watershed. The risk assessment report evaluates the potential risks to receptors within each subbasin of the watershed as well as at a watershed-wide scale. The WOC system has been exposed to contaminant releases from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and associated operations since 1943 and continues to receive contaminants from adjacent waste area groupings.« less

Medical-device risk management and public safety: using cost-benefit as a measurement of effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Allen A.

1994-12-01

Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.

Linking environmental risk assessment and communication: An experiment in co-evolving scientific and social knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graffy, E.A.; Booth, N.L.

2008-01-01

Dissemination of information to decision-makers and enhanced methods of public participation are often put forward as antidotes to a perceived disconnect between risk assessment and risk communication in the public domain. However, mechanisms that support both the provision of routine, timely and relevant technical knowledge to the public and meaningful opportunities for public participation in the evaluation and management of risk are few. We argue for the need to re-conceptualise the institutional context in which risk research and communication occur as one in which scientific knowledge and public understanding are co-evolutionary instead of independent or sequential. Here, we report on an experiment to promote coevolution of environmental risk assessment and risk communication through the instrumental use of a web-based platform that dynamically links expert and public discourses through common information sources, linked scenario evaluations, and opportunities for iterative dialogue. On the basis of technical feasibility, research value and public communication capacity, we conclude that there is potential for further refinement of the methodologies presented here. Copyright ?? 2008 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

A proposed framework for assessing risk from less-than-lifetime exposures to carcinogens.

PubMed

Felter, Susan P; Conolly, Rory B; Bercu, Joel P; Bolger, P Michael; Boobis, Alan R; Bos, Peter M J; Carthew, Philip; Doerrer, Nancy G; Goodman, Jay I; Harrouk, Wafa A; Kirkland, David J; Lau, Serrine S; Llewellyn, G Craig; Preston, R Julian; Schoeny, Rita; Schnatter, A Robert; Tritscher, Angelika; van Velsen, Frans; Williams, Gary M

2011-07-01

Quantitative methods for estimation of cancer risk have been developed for daily, lifetime human exposures. There are a variety of studies or methodologies available to address less-than-lifetime exposures. However, a common framework for evaluating risk from less-than-lifetime exposures (including short-term and/or intermittent exposures) does not exist, which could result in inconsistencies in risk assessment practice. To address this risk assessment need, a committee of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Health and Environmental Sciences Institute conducted a multisector workshop in late 2009 to discuss available literature, different methodologies, and a proposed framework. The proposed framework provides a decision tree and guidance for cancer risk assessments for less-than-lifetime exposures based on current knowledge of mode of action and dose-response. Available data from rodent studies and epidemiological studies involving less-than-lifetime exposures are considered, in addition to statistical approaches described in the literature for evaluating the impact of changing the dose rate and exposure duration for exposure to carcinogens. The decision tree also provides for scenarios in which an assumption of potential carcinogenicity is appropriate (e.g., based on structural alerts or genotoxicity data), but bioassay or other data are lacking from which a chemical-specific cancer potency can be determined. This paper presents an overview of the rationale for the workshop, reviews historical background, describes the proposed framework for assessing less-than-lifetime exposures to potential human carcinogens, and suggests next steps.

Chronic hypertension in pregnancy and the risk of congenital malformations: a cohort study.

PubMed

Bateman, Brian T; Huybrechts, Krista F; Fischer, Michael A; Seely, Ellen W; Ecker, Jeffrey L; Oberg, Anna S; Franklin, Jessica M; Mogun, Helen; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia

2015-03-01

Chronic hypertension is a common medical condition in pregnancy. The purpose of the study was to examine the association between maternal chronic hypertension and the risk of congenital malformations in the offspring. We defined a cohort of 878,126 completed pregnancies linked to infant medical records using the Medicaid Analytic Extract. The risk of congenital malformations was compared between normotensive controls and those with treated and untreated chronic hypertension. Confounding was addressed using propensity score matching. After matching, compared with normotensive controls, pregnancies complicated by treated chronic hypertension were at increased risk of congenital malformations (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.5), as were pregnancies with untreated chronic hypertension (OR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). In our analysis of organ-specific malformations, both treated and untreated chronic hypertension was associated with a significant increase in the risk of cardiac malformations (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9 and OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7, respectively). These associations persisted across a range of sensitivity analyses. There is a similar increase in the risk of congenital malformations (particularly cardiac malformations) associated with treated and untreated chronic hypertension that is independent of measured confounders. Studies evaluating the teratogenic potential of antihypertensive medications must control for confounding by indication. Fetuses and neonates of mothers with chronic hypertension should be carefully evaluated for potential malformations, particularly cardiac defects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of stem water potential and other tree and stand variables as risk factors for Phytophthora ramorum canker development in coast live oak

Treesearch

Tedmund J. Swiecki; Elizabeth Bernhardt

2002-01-01

We conducted a case-control study to examine the role of water stress and various other factors on the development of Phytophthora ramorum cankers in symptomatic (case) and symptomless (control) coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus). Midday stem water potential (SWP) in ...

Evaluating potential changes in fire risk from Eucalyptus plantings in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; John A. Stanturf

2012-01-01

Renewed interest in short-rotation woody crops for bioenergy and bioproducts has prompted a reevaluation of the Eucalyptus species for the southern United States. One question that arises about the potential effects of introducing a nonnative species is what effect will there be on fire behavior. Our approximate answer based on modeling fire behavior...

Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. Mark

2009-01-01

The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

[Consumption of medications, alcohol and smoking in pregnancy and assessment of teratogenic risks].

PubMed

Rocha, Rebeca Silveira; Bezerra, Samara Cavalcante; Lima, José Welington de Oliveira; Costa, Fabrício da Silva

2013-06-01

Medications, alcohol and smoking can cause fetal damage. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 326 mothers of the Fortaleza General Hospital to evaluate the use of drugs, alcohol and smoking during pregnancy and its relation to teratogenic potential in different population characteristics, between 2006 and 2007. Postpartum women who had their babies in the research site were included and those whose babies were not admitted as hospital inpatients were excluded. Chi-square tests and t-tests were used in the analysis, with a p value <0.05 considered significant. 96.6% of the mothers took medications (2.8 drugs/ pregnancy) and self-medication occurred in 11.3% of the cases. Single women took more drugs with high teratogenic potential (p=0.037). 11 cases of fetal malformation were observed, five of them were exposed to high teratogenic risks. Smoking occurred in 11.3% and alcohol use in 16%. Being single was found to be a risk factor for exposure to high teratogenic potential. Quality of prenatal care and other sociodemographic variables weren't related to exposure to teratogenic risks.

BIOMARKER ASSAYS IN NIPPLE APIRATE FLUID

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT

The noninvasive technique of nipple aspiration as a potential source of biomarkers of breast cancer risk was evaluated. The feasibility of performing mutagenesis assays, amplifying DNA and performing protein electrophoresis on nipple aspirate fluid was explored. ...

QUANTITATIVE PROCEDURES FOR NEUROTOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In this project, previously published information on biologically based dose-response model for brain development was used to quantitatively evaluate critical neurodevelopmental processes, and to assess potential chemical impacts on early brain development. This model has been ex...

Not only body weight perception but also body mass index is relevant to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Kuni; Kinoshita, Yoshihiro; Shimodera, Shinji; Nishida, Atsushi; Inoue, Ken; Watanabe, Norio; Oshima, Norihito; Akechi, Tatsuo; Sasaki, Tsukasa; Inoue, Shimpei; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Okazaki, Yuji

2012-04-01

Whether a low body mass index (BMI) is directly associated with a high risk of suicidal ideation or self-harming behavior in adolescents is still inconclusive. This study has, therefore, evaluated the relevance of BMI to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior after controlling for body weight perception (BWP) and other potential confounding factors. BMI, BWP, suicidal ideation, and self-harming behavior were all assessed using a self-report questionnaire administered to 18,104 Japanese adolescents. Potential confounding factors were also evaluated. The data were then analyzed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Low BMI was associated with suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harm when controlling for sex, age, drug use, emotional distress, and BWP. Low BMI may be an independent risk factor for suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

Using network to enhance the insights on correlation and pollution assessment of co-occurring metals in marine sediments, the East China Sea.

PubMed

Liu, Lili; Wang, Yupeng; Lin, Sen; Li, Hong; Chen, Xin; Wang, Zhiping; Lin, Kuangfei

2018-04-01

In this study, sediment samples were collected from 24 sites in the East China Sea (ECS) to investigate the distribution characteristics, co-occurrence correlations, and ecological risks of metals. In surface sediments, metals presented a homologous banding distribution pattern decreasing seaward with distance. With network analysis, it indicated metals in this area might directly derive from the coastal river inputs. According to geo-accumulation indexes (I geo ), Cd was classified as moderate pollution at 58% sites, far above other metals. In addition, the potential ecological risk index (RI) was clustered with the ecological risk (ER) of Cd, which was regarded as considerable or high-risk level for most coastal stations. Thus Cd pollution in the ESC sediment should be paid more attention. In sum, the visualization of statistical analyses combined with geochemical approaches could reveal the potential sources of contaminants and ecological risks, thus facilitate the pollution evaluation in marine sediments.

Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

2014-11-20

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Heavy metals distribution and risk assessment in soil from an informal E-waste recycling site in Lagos State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Isimekhai, Khadijah A; Garelick, Hemda; Watt, John; Purchase, Diane

2017-07-01

Informal E-waste recycling can pose a risk to human health and the environment which this study endeavours to evaluate. The distribution of a number of heavy metals in soil from an informal recycling site in the largest market for used and new electronics and electrical equipment in West Africa was investigated. The potential bioavailability of heavy metals, extent of contamination, potential risk due to the recycling activities and impact of external factors such as rainfall were also assessed. The concentrations of all the heavy metals tested were higher in the area where burning of the waste occurred than at the control site, suggesting an impact of the recycling activities on the soil. The order of total metal concentrations was Cu > Pb > Zn > Mn > Ni > Sb > Cr > Cd for both the dry and wet seasons. The total concentrations of Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn were all significantly higher (p < 0.001) in the dry season than in the wet season. The concentrations of Cu (329-7106 mg kg -1 ), Pb (115-9623 mg kg -1 ) and Zn (508-8178 mg kg -1 ) were consistently higher than international soil guideline values. Using a sequential extraction method, the potential bioavailability of the heavy metals was indicated as Cd > Sb > Zn > Cu > Ni > Pb > Cr. When the risk was assessed using the Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI), Cu was found to contribute the most to the potential ecological risk and Cd gave rise to the greatest concern due to its high toxic-response factor within the study site. Similarly, utilising the Risk Assessment Code (RAC) suggested that Cd posed the most risk in this site. This research establishes a high level of contamination in the study site and underscores the importance of applying the appropriate chemical speciation in risk assessment.

Promising strategies for advancement in knowledge of suicide risk factors and prevention.

PubMed

Sareen, Jitender; Isaak, Corinne; Katz, Laurence Y; Bolton, James; Enns, Murray W; Stein, Murray B

2014-09-01

Suicide is an important public health problem. Although there have been advances in our knowledge of suicide, gaps remain in knowledge about suicide risk factors and prevention. Here, we discuss research pathways that have the potential to rapidly advance knowledge in suicide risk assessment and reduction of suicide deaths over the next decade. We provide a concise overview of the methodologic approaches that have the capacity to rapidly increase knowledge and change practice, which have been successful in past work in psychiatry and other areas of medicine. We suggest three specific pathways to advance knowledge of suicide risk factors and prevention. First, analysis of large-scale epidemiologic surveys and administrative data sets can advance the understanding of suicide. Second, given the low base rate of suicide, there is a need for networks/consortia of investigators in the field of suicide prevention. Such consortia have the capacity to analyze existing epidemiologic data sets, create multi-site cohort studies of high-risk groups to increase knowledge of biological and other risk factors, and create a platform for multi-site clinical trials. Third, partnerships with policymakers and researchers would facilitate careful scientific evaluation of policies and programs aimed at reducing suicide. Suicide intervention policies are often multifaceted, expensive, and rarely evaluated. Using quasi-experimental methods or sophisticated analytic strategies such as propensity score-matching techniques, the impact of large-scale interventions on suicide can be evaluated. Furthermore, such partnerships between policymakers and researchers can lead to the design and support of prospective RCTs (e.g., cluster randomized trials, stepped wedge designs, waiting list designs) in high-risk groups (e.g., people with a history of suicide attempts, multi-axial comorbidity, and offspring of people who have died by suicide). These research pathways could lead to rapid knowledge uptake between communities and have the strong potential to reduce suicide. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Frost Risk Assessment Tool in Agriculture for a Mediterranean ecosystem Utilizing MODIS satellite observations Geomatics and Surface Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louka, Panagiota; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Petropoulos, George; Migiros, George; Tsiros, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Frost risk in Mediterranean countries is a critical factor in agricultural planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid technological developments in Earth Observation (EO) technology have improved dramatically our ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions over a given area and evaluate its impacts on the environment and society. In this study, a frost risk model for agricultural crops cultivated in a Mediterranean environment has been developed, based primarily on Earth Observation (EO) data from MODIS sensor and ancillary spatial and point data. The ability of the model to predict frost conditions has been validated for selected days on which frost conditions had been observed for a region in Northwestern Greece according to ground observations obtained by the Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA). An extensive evaluation of the frost risk model predictions has been performed herein to evaluate objectively its ability to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of frost risk in the studied region, including comparisons against physiographical factors of the study area. The topographical characteristics that were taken under consideration were latitude, altitude, slope steepness, topographic convergence and the extend of the areas influenced by water bodies (such as lake and sea) existing in the study area. Additional data were also used concerning land use data and vegetation classification (type and density). Our results showed that the model was able to produce reasonably the spatio-temporal distribution of the frost conditions in our study area, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. All in all, the methodology implemented herein proved capable in obtaining rapidly and cost-effectively cartography of the frost risk in a Mediterranean environment, making it potentially a very useful tool for agricultural management and planning. The model presented here has also a potential to enhance conventional field-based surveying for monitoring frost changes over long timescales. KEYWORDS: Earth Observation, MODIS, frost, risk assessment, Greece

Risk as a social phenomenon.

PubMed

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape public perception are to have any success. The report concludes that public perceptions concerning risk are driven more by social and moral debates than by scientific or economic debates (340 words).

Evaluating financial risk management strategies under climate change for hydropower producers on the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Eliot S.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Brown, Casey

2017-03-01

Hydropower on the Great Lakes makes up a substantial fraction of regional electricity generation capacity. Hydropower producers on the Niagara River (flowing between lakes Erie and Ontario) operate as run-of-river, and changing lake levels alter interlake flows reducing both generation and revenues. Index-based insurance contracts, wherein contract payouts are linked to lake levels, offer a tool for mitigating this risk. As a potentially useful tool, pricing of financial insurance is typically based on historical behavior of the index. However, uncertainty with respect to the impacts of climate change on lake level behavior and how this might translate to increased (or decreased) risk for those selling or buying the insurance remains unexplored. Portfolios of binary index-insurance contracts are developed for hydropower producers on the Niagara River, and their performance is evaluated under a range of climate scenarios. Climate Informed Decision Analysis is used to inform the sensitivity of these portfolios to potential shifts in long-term, climatological variations in water level behavior. Under historical conditions, hydropower producers can use portfolios costing 0.5% of mean revenues to increase their minimum revenue threshold by approximately 18%. However, a one standard deviation decrease in the 50 year mean water level potentially doubles the frequency with which these portfolios would underperform from the perspective of a potential insurer. Trade-offs between portfolio cost and the frequency of underperformance are investigated over a range of climate futures.

Prospective evaluation of a clinical guideline recommending hospital length of stay in upper gastrointestinal tract hemorrhage.

PubMed

Hay, J A; Maldonado, L; Weingarten, S R; Ellrodt, A G

Upper gastrointestinal tract hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common and potentially life-threatening disorder. Resource utilization can vary without adverse effect on patient outcome. Clinical practice guidelines are a potential solution to reduce variation in practice while improving patient outcomes. To validate prospectively the safety, acceptability, and impact of a clinical practice guideline defining the medically appropriate length of stay (LOS) for patients hospitalized with UGIH. Prospective, controlled time-series study with an alternate-month design. Outcome surveyors and patients were blinded to study group allocation. GUIDELINE: A retrospectively validated scoring system using 4 independent variables: hemodynamics, time from bleeding, comorbidity, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) findings to predict risk of adverse events. The quantitative risk for the low-risk subset was 0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.0%-2.0%) for subsequent complications and 0% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.9%) for life-threatening complications from this retrospective evaluation. A 1000-bed, not-for-profit, university-affiliated teaching hospital. Consecutive adult patients hospitalized for acute UGIH. Concurrent feedback of guideline recommendation (same-day hospital discharge) to physicians caring for patients at low risk for complication. No risk information was provided during control months. Seventy percent (209/299) of UGIH patients achieved low-risk status according to the guideline and were therefore potentially suitable for early discharge from the hospital. Providing real-time quantitative risk information (intervention group only) was associated with an increase in guideline compliance from 30% to 70% (P<.001) and a decrease in mean (SD) LOS from 4.6 (3.5) days to 2.9 (1.3) days (mean reduction of 1.7 days per patient; P<.001). No differences in complications, patient health status, or patient satisfaction were found when measured 1 month after discharge. An independent variable predicting decreased hospital LOS for low-risk UGIH patients was early EGD. Implementation of the clinical practice guideline safely reduced hospital LOS for selected low-risk patients with acute UGIH. Further prospective validation in other settings is warranted.

Venous Thromboembolism in Physically Active People: Considerations for Risk Assessment, Mainstream Awareness and Future Research.

PubMed

Hull, Claire M; Harris, Julia A

2015-10-01

The global healthcare burden of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and associated comorbidities (e.g., obesity, heart disease and cancer) is significant. Physical activity-especially cardiovascular exercise-is popularly acclaimed for gold-standard prevention. Paradoxically, intensive training can expose athletes to several potentially thrombogenic risk factors (e.g., heat stress, dehydration, blood vessel injury and inflammation). However, awareness regarding the risk of VTE in physically active people is generally lacking. Given that the overall incidence of asymptomatic and/or occult blood clots that resolve spontaneously is uncharted, and because symptoms and sequelae are not always 'textbook', triage evaluation and diagnosis of VTE at large can be challenging. Front-line clinical evaluations, including the major Wells scoring criteria, are (versus the total number of possible factors and diagnoses) comparably reductionist, and the point at which a minor risk might be considered significant in one person-but not in another-is subjective. Considering the popular associations between VTE and inactivity, athletes might be at greater risk of a missed diagnosis quite simply because their cardiovascular conditioning presents as the polar opposite to standard assessment criteria. Undoubtedly, risk factors for VTE associated with exercise are not unique to cardiovascular training or athletes, but the extent to which they might increase the chances of blood clot precipitation in certain participants warrants attention. A multi-agency approach, including research to inform mainstream understanding and awareness about risk factors for VTE in patient groups across age, comorbidity and activity spectra, is required. In this article, the potential for pre-participatory thrombophilia screening, haemostatic monitoring and personalized prophylactic guidelines is discussed.

Infectious Disease Transmission during Organ and Tissue Transplantation

PubMed Central

Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Fishman, Jay A.

2012-01-01

Infectious disease transmission through organ and tissue transplantation has been associated with severe complications in recipients. Determination of donor-derived infectious risk associated with organ and tissue transplantation is challenging and limited by availability and performance characteristics of current donor epidemiologic screening (e.g., questionnaire) and laboratory testing tools. Common methods and standards for evaluating potential donors of organs and tissues are needed to facilitate effective data collection for assessing the risk for infectious disease transmission. Research programs can use advanced microbiological technologies to define infectious risks posed by pathogens that are known to be transplant transmissible and provide insights into transmission potential of emerging infectious diseases for which transmission characteristics are unknown. Key research needs are explored. Stakeholder collaboration for surveillance and research infrastructure is required to enhance transplant safety. PMID:22840823

Evaluation of an avatar-based training program to promote suicide prevention awareness in a college setting.

PubMed

Rein, Benjamin A; McNeil, Daniel W; Hayes, Allison R; Hawkins, T Anne; Ng, H Mei; Yura, Catherine A

2018-07-01

Training programs exist that prepare college students, faculty, and staff to identify and support students potentially at risk for suicide. Kognito is an online program that trains users through simulated interactions with virtual humans. This study evaluated Kognito's effectiveness in preparing users to intervene with at-risk students. Training was completed by 2,727 university students, faculty, and staff from April, 2014 through September, 2015. Voluntary and mandatory participants at a land-grant university completed Kognito modules designed for higher education, along with pre- and post-assessments. All modules produced significant gains in reported Preparedness, Likelihood, and Self-Efficacy in intervening with troubled students. Despite initial disparities in reported abilities, after training participants reported being similarly capable of assisting at-risk students, including LGBTQ and veteran students. Kognito training appears to be effective, on a large scale, in educating users to act in a facilitative role for at-risk college students.

Invasion complexity at large spatial scales is an emergent property of interactions among landscape characteristics and invader traits

PubMed Central

Jordan, Nicholas R.; Forester, James D.

2018-01-01

Invasion potential should be part of the evaluation of candidate species for any species introduction. However, estimating invasion risks remains a challenging problem, particularly in complex landscapes. Certain plant traits are generally considered to increase invasive potential and there is an understanding that landscapes influence invasions dynamics, but little research has been done to explore how those drivers of invasions interact. We evaluate the relative roles of, and potential interactions between, plant invasiveness traits and landscape characteristics on invasions with a case study using a model parameterized for the potentially invasive biomass crop, Miscanthus × giganteus. Using that model we simulate invasions on 1000 real landscapes to evaluate how landscape characteristics, including both composition and spatial structure, affect invasion outcomes. We conducted replicate simulations with differing strengths of plant invasiveness traits (dispersal ability, establishment ability, population growth rate, and the ability to utilize dispersal corridors) to evaluate how the importance of landscape characteristics for predicting invasion patterns changes depending on the invader details. Analysis of simulations showed that the presence of highly suitable habitat (e.g., grasslands) is generally the strongest determinant of invasion dynamics but that there are also more subtle interactions between landscapes and invader traits. These effects can also vary between different aspects of invasion dynamics (short vs. long time scales and population size vs. spatial extent). These results illustrate that invasions are complex emergent processes with multiple drivers and effective management needs to reflect the ecology of the species of interest and the particular goals or risks for which efforts need to be optimized. PMID:29771923

Neurophysiological assessment of auditory, peripheral nerve, somatosensory, and visual system functions after developmental exposure to ethanol vapors.

PubMed

Boyes, William K; Degn, Laura L; Martin, Sheppard A; Lyke, Danielle F; Hamm, Charles W; Herr, David W

2014-01-01

Ethanol-blended gasoline entered the market in response to demand for domestic renewable energy sources, and may result in increased inhalation of ethanol vapors in combination with other volatile gasoline constituents. It is important to understand potential risks of inhalation of ethanol vapors by themselves, and also as a baseline for evaluating the risks of ethanol combined with a complex mixture of hydrocarbon vapors. Because sensory dysfunction has been reported after developmental exposure to ethanol, we evaluated the effects of developmental exposure to ethanol vapors on neurophysiological measures of sensory function as a component of a larger project evaluating developmental ethanol toxicity. Pregnant Long-Evans rats were exposed to target concentrations 0, 5000, 10,000, or 21,000 ppm ethanol vapors for 6.5h/day over GD9-GD20. Sensory evaluations of male offspring began between PND106 and PND128. Peripheral nerve function (compound action potentials, nerve conduction velocity (NCV)), somatosensory (cortical and cerebellar evoked potentials), auditory (brainstem auditory evoked responses), and visual evoked responses were assessed. Visual function assessment included pattern elicited visual evoked potentials (VEPs), VEP contrast sensitivity, and electroretinograms recorded from dark-adapted (scotopic), light-adapted (photopic) flashes, and UV flicker and green flicker. No consistent concentration-related changes were observed for any of the physiological measures. The results show that gestational exposure to ethanol vapor did not result in detectable changes in peripheral nerve, somatosensory, auditory, or visual function when the offspring were assessed as adults. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Urinary strontium and the risk of breast cancer: A case-control study in Guangzhou, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Li-Juan; Tang, Lu-Ying; The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630

2012-01-15

Strontium has been widely used in industries like electronic and pharmacy. It has a carcinogenic potential, however, and no study has been conducted to evaluate its effects on cancer risk. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between strontium and breast cancer risk in a case-control study including 240 incident invasive breast cancer patients and 246 age-matched controls. We measured the urinary concentrations of strontium by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and conducted face-to-face interviews to obtain information on potential breast cancer risk factors. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the association. Creatinine-adjusted levels [median (25th,more » 75th) {mu}g/g] of strontium were 155.59 (99.05, 230.70) in the breast cancer patients and 119.62 (81.97, 163.76) in the controls. Women in the highest tertile of strontium showed 124% increased risk of breast cancer, when compared with those in the lowest tertile after adjustment for the potential risk factors [OR (95% CI): 2.24 (1.42-3.81)]. This association was particularly strong for HER2 positive breast cancer [OR (95% CI): 10.92 (3.53-33.77)], and only occurred among premenopausal women. These results suggest a potential role of strontium in the development of breast cancer and urge further studies on the environmental contamination and the physiological and pathological mechanisms of strontium.« less

Information and Risk Modification Trial (INFORM): design of a randomised controlled trial of communicating different types of information about coronary heart disease risk, alongside lifestyle advice, to achieve change in health-related behaviour.

PubMed

Silarova, Barbora; Lucas, Joanne; Butterworth, Adam S; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Girling, Christine; Lawrence, Kathryn; Mackintosh, Stuart; Moore, Carmel; Payne, Rupert A; Sharp, Stephen J; Shefer, Guy; Tolkien, Zoe; Usher-Smith, Juliet; Walker, Matthew; Danesh, John; Griffin, Simon

2015-09-07

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours. In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups. The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

Coffee and tea consumption and risk of leukaemia in an adult population: A reanalysis of the Italian multicentre case-control study.

PubMed

Parodi, Stefano; Merlo, Domenico Franco; Stagnaro, Emanuele

2017-04-01

Coffee and tea are the most frequently consumed beverages in the world. Their potential effect on the risk of developing different types of malignancies has been largely investigated, but studies on leukaemia in adults are scarce. The present investigation is aimed at evaluating the potential role of regular coffee and tea intake on the risk of adult leukaemia by reanalysing a large population based case-control study carried out in Italy, a country with a high coffee consumption and a low use of green tea. Interviewed subjects, recruited between 1990 and 1993 in 11 Italian areas, included 1771 controls and 651 leukaemia cases. Association between Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML), Acute Lymphoid Leukaemia, Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia, Chronic Lymphoid Leukaemia, and use of coffee and tea was evaluated by standard logistic regression. Odds Ratios (OR) were estimated adjusting for the following potential confounders: gender, age, residence area, smoking habit, educational level, previous chemotherapy treatment, alcohol consumption and exposure to electromagnetic fields, radiation, pesticides and aromatic hydrocarbons. No association was observed between regular use of coffee and any type of leukaemia. A small protective effect of tea intake was found among myeloid malignancies, which was more evident among AML (OR=0.68, 95%CI: 0.49-0.94). However, no clear dose-response relation was found. The lower risk of leukaemia among regular coffee consumers, reported by a few of previous small studies, was not confirmed. The protective effect of tea on the AML risk is only partly consistent with results from other investigations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of two high through-put (HTP) androgen receptor based assays: Utility of data for prioritization for further testing versus prediction of adverse effects.

EPA Science Inventory

The androgen signaling pathway plays a critical role in sexual differentiation during development in mammals and is one of the better understood pathways in human development. Thus it was chosen as a model pathway to evaluate the potential of HTP in vitro assays as risk assessmen...

Handle with Care! an Exploration of the Potential Risks Associated with the Publication and Summative Usage of Student Evaluation of Teaching (SET) Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Joanna; Gaffney-Rhys, Ruth; Jones, Edward

2014-01-01

This article presents a synthesis of previous ideas relating to student evaluation of teaching (SET) results in higher education institutions (HEIs), with particular focus upon possible validity issues and matters that HEI decision-makers should consider prior to interpreting survey results and using them summatively. Furthermore, the research…

Selecting at-risk populations for sexually transmitted disease/HIV intervention studies.

PubMed

Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Detels, Roger; Li, Li; Guan, Jihui; Liang, Guojun; Yap, Lorraine

2007-12-01

This paper describes one option to select populations for randomized, controlled trials (RCT). We used a popular opinion leader intervention in Fuzhou, China, to: (1) identify population selection criteria; (2) systematically examine the suitability of potential target populations and settings; (3) briefly evaluate risk and stability in the population; and (4) evaluate regional and organizational support among administrators and government officials. After comparing migrant villagers, truck drivers, factory workers, construction workers, and market employees in five regions of China, market employees in Fuzhou were identified as the optimal target population. Markets were the optimal sites for several reasons: (1) the population demonstrated a sufficient base rate of sexually transmitted diseases; (2) the population was stable over time; (3) a sufficient number of sites of manageable sizes were available; (4) stable networks existed; (5) local gatekeepers/stakeholders supported the intervention; (6) there was organizational capacity in the local health department to mount the intervention; (7) the demographic profile was similar across potential sites; and (8) the sites were sufficiently distanced to minimize contamination. Evaluating intervention efficacy in an RCT requires a time-consuming and rigorous process that systematically and routinely documents selection criteria, evaluates multiple populations, sites, and organizations for their appropriateness.

Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

PubMed

Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

2011-01-01

International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

RCRA Facility Investigation report for Waste Area Grouping 6 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 1. Sections 1 through 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1991-09-01

WAG 6 comprises a shallow land burial facility used for disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW) and, until recently, chemical wastes. As such, the site is subject to regulation under RCRA and the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA). To comply with these regulations, DOE, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), developed a strategy for closure and remediation of WAG 6 by 1997. A key component of this strategy was to complete an RFI by September 1991. The primary objectives of the RFI were to evaluate themore » site's potential human health and environmental impacts and to develop a preliminary list of alternatives to mitigate these impacts. The WAG 6 one of three solid waste management units evaluated Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) existing waste disposal records and sampling data and performed the additional sampling and analysis necessary to: describe the nature and extent of contamination; characterize key contaminant transport pathways; and assess potential risks to human health and the environment by developing and evaluating hypothetical receptor scenarios. Estimated excess lifetime cancer risks as a result for exposure to radionuclides and chemicals were quantified for each hypothetical human receptor. For environmental receptors, potential impacts were qualitatively assessed. Taking into account regulatory requirements and base line risk assessment results, preliminary site closure and remediation objectives were identified, and a preliminary list of alternatives for site closure and remediation was developed.« less

Prevalence and associated risk factors of latent tuberculosis infection among undergraduate and postgraduate dental students: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Lamberti, Monica; Muoio, Maria Rosaria; Westermann, Claudia; Nienhaus, Albert; Arnese, Antonio; Ribeiro Sobrinho, Antônio Paulino; Di Giuseppe, Gabriella; Garzillo, Elpidio Maria; Crispino, Vincenzo; Coppola, Nicola; De Rosa, Alfredo

2017-03-04

To estimate the prevalence of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI) in Italian dental students exposed to the same occupational risks as dental health care personnel and to evaluate potential risk factors, a cross-sectional study was conducted on undergraduate and postgraduate students. After clinical evaluation, students were given a tuberculin skin test; in those found positive, an interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) was conducted. Of the 281 students enrolled, 10 were only TST positive; 8 were TST or/and IGRA positive. We found that participants testing positive at TST and/or IGRA, a group in which the risk of false LTBI positives is minimal, were older and had been studying longer. Although the prevalence of LTBI among dental students in our study was low, a risk of acquiring a work-related infection exists even in a country with a low incidence of TB. Thus, dental students should be screened to catch LTBI early on.

Measures for Assessing Subjective Effects of Potential Reduced Exposure Products

PubMed Central

Hanson, Karen; O’Connor, Richard; Hatsukami, Dorothy

2009-01-01

Potential reduced exposure products (PREPs) may reduce toxicant exposure and thereby may possibly reduce health risks associated with conventional tobacco use. However, lessened health risk to the individual or harm to the population through use of PREPs is unknown. Research is being conducted to evaluate the possible health effects associated with PREP use. As part of this evaluation, it is critical to provide sound measures of subjective responses to PREPs to determine the use and the abuse potential of a product, that is the likelihood that this product will lead to addiction. The goal of this paper is to conduct a systematic review of scales that have been used to measure the subjective responses to PREPs and examine their characteristics. In this paper, scales are identified and the items on the scales are described. Scales are also examined to determine whether they are sensitive in testing PREPs. Furthermore, scales to assess PREPs are recommended to investigators. Where no scales exist, items that may be critical for the development and validation of new scales are identified. PMID:19959674

Challenges in testing genetically modified crops for potential increases in endogenous allergen expression for safety.

PubMed

Panda, R; Ariyarathna, H; Amnuaycheewa, P; Tetteh, A; Pramod, S N; Taylor, S L; Ballmer-Weber, B K; Goodman, R E

2013-02-01

Premarket, genetically modified (GM) plants are assessed for potential risks of food allergy. The major risk would be transfer of a gene encoding an allergen or protein nearly identical to an allergen into a different food source, which can be assessed by specific serum testing. The potential that a newly expressed protein might become an allergen is evaluated based on resistance to digestion in pepsin and abundance in food fractions. If the modified plant is a common allergenic source (e.g. soybean), regulatory guidelines suggest testing for increases in the expression of endogenous allergens. Some regulators request evaluating endogenous allergens for rarely allergenic plants (e.g. maize and rice). Since allergic individuals must avoid foods containing their allergen (e.g. peanut, soybean, maize, or rice), the relevance of the tests is unclear. Furthermore, no acceptance criteria are established and little is known about the natural variation in allergen concentrations in these crops. Our results demonstrate a 15-fold difference in the major maize allergen, lipid transfer protein between nine varieties, and complex variation in IgE binding to various soybean varieties. We question the value of evaluating endogenous allergens in GM plants unless the intent of the modification was production of a hypoallergenic crop. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Prior knowledge-based approach for associating ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluating the potential human health and/or ecological risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures in the ambient environment is one of the central challenges of chemical safety assessment and environmental protection. There is a need for approaches that can help to integrate chemical monitoring and bio-effects data to evaluate risks associated with chemicals present in the environment. We used prior knowledge about chemical-gene interactions to develop a knowledge assembly model for detected chemicals at five locations near two wastewater treatment plants. The assembly model was used to generate hypotheses about the biological impacts of the chemicals at each location. The hypotheses were tested using empirical hepatic gene expression data from fathead minnows exposed for 12 d at each location. Empirical gene expression data was also mapped to the assembly models to statistically evaluate the likelihood of a chemical contributing to the observed biological responses. The prior knowledge approach was able reasonably hypothesize the biological impacts at one site but not the other. Chemicals most likely contributing to the observed biological responses were identified at each location. Despite limitations to the approach, knowledge assembly models have strong potential for associating chemical occurrence with potential biological effects and providing a foundation for hypothesis generation to guide research and/or monitoring efforts relat

Could NLRP3-Inflammasome Be a Cardiovascular Risk Biomarker in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients?

PubMed

Bullón, Pedro; Cano-García, Francisco J; Alcocer-Gómez, Elísabet; Varela-López, Alfonso; Roman-Malo, Lourdes; Ruiz-Salmerón, Rafael J; Quiles, José L; Navarro-Pando, José M; Battino, Maurizio; Ruiz-Cabello, Jesús; Jiménez-Borreguero, Luis J; Cordero, Mario D

2017-08-10

Conventional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) are accepted to identify asymptomatic individuals with high risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, AMI affects many patients previously classified at low risk. New biomarkers are needed to improve risk prediction. We propose to evaluate the NLRP3-inflammasome complex as a potential conventional cardiovascular risk (CVR) indicator in healthy males and post-AMI patients and compare both groups by known CVRFs. We included 109 men with no history of cardiovascular disease (controls) and 150 AMI patients attending a cardiac rehabilitation program. AMI patients had higher mean of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference than the controls. However, high percentages of the controls had a high BMI and a waist circumference >95 cm. The controls also had higher systolic blood pressure (p > 0.001), total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, dietary nutrient, and calorific intake. Fuster BEWAT score (FBS) correlated more closely than Framingham risk score (FRS) with most CVRF, groups. However, only the FBS showed a correlation with inflammasome cytokine interleukin 1β (IL-1β). Several CVRFs were significantly better in AMI patients; however, this group also had higher mRNA expression of the inflammasome gene NLRP3 and lower expression of the autophagy gene MAP-LC3. The controls had high levels of CVRF, probably reflecting unhealthy lifestyle. FBS reflects the efficiency of strategies to induce lifestyle changes such as cardiac rehabilitation programs, and could provide a sensitive evaluation CVR. These results lead to the hypothesis that NLRP3-inflammasome and associated IL-1β release have potential as CVR biomarkers, particularly in post-AMI patients with otherwise low risk scores. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 27, 269-275.

Comparing the risks of hospitalized heart failure associated with glinide, sulfonylurea, and acarbose use in type 2 diabetes: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Lee, Yen-Chieh; Chang, Chia-Hsuin; Dong, Yaa-Hui; Lin, Jou-Wei; Wu, Li-Chiu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang; Chuang, Lee-Ming

2017-02-01

Increasing evidence suggests that certain newer anti-diabetic drugs are associated with an increased risk of hospitalized heart failure (HHF). However, the potential risks associated with the use of sulfonylurea and glinide have not been carefully evaluated. A retrospective cohort study using the Taiwan National Health Insurance claims database was conducted to examine the risks of HHF among newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients who initiated glinide, sulfonylurea, or acarbose therapy during 2006-2012. The outcome of interest was hospitalization due to heart failure after treatment initiation, defined by ICD-9-CM code. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using acarbose as the reference group. A total of 25,638 glinide, 272,140 sulfonylurea, and 29,376 acarbose initiators were included in the analysis. Patients who initiated glinide had the highest crude HHF incidence. In the analysis adjusted for baseline differences, a significantly higher risk of HHF was found for glinide (adjusted HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.24-1.88), but not for sulfonylurea (adjusted HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.80-1.11), as compared with acarbose. The elevated risk remained consistent across different subgroups of patients as well as several sensitivity analyses including exploring the impact of potential unmeasured confounding. These findings indicated that, as compared with acarbose, glinide may be associated with a higher risk of HHF for type 2 diabetic patients. Further researchis needed to fully evaluate the risks and benefits of glinide therapy relative to other oral anti-diabetic agents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

MRI-related magnetic field exposures and risk of commuting accidents - A cross-sectional survey among Dutch imaging technicians.

PubMed

Huss, Anke; Schaap, Kristel; Kromhout, Hans

2017-07-01

Imaging technicians working with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may experience acute effects such as vertigo or dizziness when being exposed. A previous study also reported an increased risk of accidents in MRI exposed staff. We aimed at evaluating commuting accident risk in Dutch imaging technicians. Of invited imaging technicians, 490 (29%) filled in a questionnaire pertaining to (near) accidents when driving or riding a bike, health, lifestyle and work practices. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between exposure to MRI-related electromagnetic fields and risk of commuting (near) accidents in the year prior to the survey, adjusted for a range of potential confounders. Our cross-sectional study indicated an increased risk of (near) accidents if imaging technicians had worked with MRI in the year prior to the survey (odds ratio OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.23-3.69). Risks were higher in persons who worked with MRI more often (OR 2.32, 95%CI 1.25-4.31) compared to persons who worked sometimes with MRI (OR 1.91, 95%CI 0.98-3.72), and higher in those who had likely experienced higher peak exposures to static and time-varying magnetic fields (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.06-4.48). The effect was seen on commuting accidents that had occurred on the commute from home to work as well as accidents from work to home or elsewhere. Imaging technicians working with MRI scanners may be at an increased risk of commuting (near) accidents. This result needs confirmation and potential risks for other groups (volunteers, patients) should be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Version 3 of the historical-clinical-risk management-20 (HCR-20V3): relevance to violence risk assessment and management in forensic conditional release contexts.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S

2014-09-01

The conditional release of insanity acquittees requires decisions both about community risk level and the contextual factors that may mitigate or aggravate risk. This article discusses the potential role of the newly revised Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20, Version 3) within the conditional release context. A brief review of the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach to violence risk assessment and management is provided. Version 2 of the HCR-20, which has been broadly adopted and evaluated, is briefly described. New features of Version 3 of the HCR-20 with particular relevance to conditional release decision-making are reviewed, including: item indicators; ratings of the relevance of risk factors to an individual's violence; risk formulation; scenario planning; and risk management planning. Version 3 of the HCR-20 includes a number of features that should assist evaluators and decision-makers to determine risk level, as well as to anticipate and specify community conditions and contexts that may mitigate or aggravate risk. Research on the HCR-20 Version 3 using approximately 800 participants across three settings (forensic psychiatric, civil psychiatric, correctional) and eight countries is reviewed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of pyrolysis temperature on chemical form, behavior and environmental risk of Zn, Pb and Cd in biochar produced from phytoremediation residue.

PubMed

Huang, Hui; Yao, Wenlin; Li, Ronghua; Ali, Amjad; Du, Juan; Guo, Di; Xiao, Ran; Guo, Zhanyu; Zhang, Zengqiang; Awasthi, Mukesh Kumar

2018-02-01

This study aimed to evaluate the chemical forms, behavior and environmental risk of heavy metal (HMs) Zn, Pb and Cd in phytoremediation residue (PMR) pyrolyzed at 350 °C, 550 °C and 750 °C, respectively. The behavior of HMs variation during the PMR pyrolysis process was analyzed and the potential HMs environmental risk of phytoremediation residue biochars (PMB) was assessed which was seldom investigated before. The results showed that the pyrolysis temperature increase decreased the soluble/exchangeable HMs fraction and alleviated the HMs bioavailability. When the temperature was over 550 °C, the adsorbed Zn(II), Pb(II) and Cd(II) were turned into oxides forms and concentrated in PMB with more stable forms exhibiting lower risk assessment code and potential ecological risk index. The ecotoxicity test showed higher pyrolysis temperature favored the reduction of PMB ecotoxicity. It is suggested that pyrolysis temperature above 550°C may be suitable for thermal treatment of PMR with acceptable environmental risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chagas Disease Knowledge and Risk Behaviors of the Homeless Population in Houston, TX.

PubMed

Ingber, Alexandra; Garcia, Melissa N; Leon, Juan; Murray, Kristy O

2018-04-01

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, endemic in Latin America. Sylvatic T. cruzi-infected triatomine vectors are present in rural and urban areas in the southern USA and may transmit T. cruzi infection to at-risk populations, such as homeless individuals. Our study aimed to evaluate Chagas disease knowledge and behaviors potentially associated with transmission risk of Chagas disease among Houston, Texas' homeless population by performing interviews with 212 homeless individuals. The majority of the 212 surveyed homeless individuals were male (79%), African-American (43%), American-born individuals (96%). About 30% of the individuals reported having seen triatomines in Houston, and 25% had evidence of blood-borne transmission risk (IV drug use and/or unregulated tattoos). The median total time homeless was significantly associated with recognition of the triatomine vector. Our survey responses indicate that the homeless populations may exhibit potential risks for Chagas disease, due to increased vector exposure, and participation in blood-borne pathogen risk behaviors. Our findings warrant additional research to quantify the prevalence of Chagas disease among homeless populations.

Assessment of Head and Neck Injury Potential During Aircraft Longitudinal Impacts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-02

The risk of head-neck injuries was evaluated for certain aircraft seat and interior configurations in aircraft longitudinal impacts. Two loading scenarios for the head-neck system were investigated: inertial (noncontact) loading in posterior-anterior...

Risk evaluation for in-vehicle sign information.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

The goal of the study was to examine the influence of in-vehicle signing (IVS) pertaining to four types of changing : driving conditions and determine the utility and potential safety costs associated with the IVS information. Signage : displayed on ...

Quantitative relationship between crash risks and pavement skid resistance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Faced with continuously increasing maintenance due to aging infrastructure, the Texas Department of : Transportation (TxDOT) is evaluating the potential impact of reduced funding on highway safety. The main : objective of this report is to develop a ...

Advective and diffusive dermal processes for estimating terrestrial amphibian pesticide exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Dermal exposure presents a potentially significant but understudied route for pesticide uptake in terrestrial amphibians. Historically, evaluation of pesticide risk to both amphibians and reptiles has been achieved by comparing ingestion and inhalat...

MUTAGENICITY OF DRINKING WATER FOLLOWING DISINFECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Many drinking water utilities in the USA are considering alternatives to chlorine for disinfection in order to comply with federal regulations regarding disinfection by-products. An evaluation is thus needed of the potential risks associated with the use of alternative disinfecta...

More Than Fear Induction: Toward an Understanding of People's Motivation to Be Well-Prepared for Emergencies in Flood-Prone Areas.

PubMed

de Boer, Joop; Botzen, W J Wouter; Terpstra, Teun

2015-03-01

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood-related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention-focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention-focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high-scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low-scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prevention of accidental exposure in radiotherapy: the risk matrix approach.

PubMed

Vilaragut, J J; Duménigo, C; Delgado, J M; Morales, J; McDonnell, J D; Ferro, R; Ortiz López, P; Ramírez, M L; Pérez Mulas, A; Papadopulos, S; Gonçalves, M; López Morones, R; Sánchez Cayuela, C; Cascajo Castresana, A; Somoano, F; Álvarez, C; Guillén, A; Rodríguez, M; Pereira, P P; Nader, A

2013-02-01

Knowledge and lessons from past accidental exposures in radiotherapy are very helpful in finding safety provisions to prevent recurrence. Disseminating lessons is necessary but not sufficient. There may be additional latent risks for other accidental exposures, which have not been reported or have not occurred, but are possible and may occur in the future if not identified, analyzed, and prevented by safety provisions. Proactive methods are available for anticipating and quantifying risk from potential event sequences. In this work, proactive methods, successfully used in industry, have been adapted and used in radiotherapy. Risk matrix is a tool that can be used in individual hospitals to classify event sequences in levels of risk. As with any anticipative method, the risk matrix involves a systematic search for potential risks; that is, any situation that can cause an accidental exposure. The method contributes new insights: The application of the risk matrix approach has identified that another group of less catastrophic but still severe single-patient events may have a higher probability, resulting in higher risk. The use of the risk matrix approach for safety assessment in individual hospitals would provide an opportunity for self-evaluation and managing the safety measures that are most suitable to the hospital's own conditions.

Using Computer Simulations for Investigating a Sex Education Intervention: An Exploratory Study

PubMed Central

Bullock, Seth; Graham, Cynthia A; Ingham, Roger

2017-01-01

Background Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are ongoing concerns. The best method for preventing the transmission of these infections is the correct and consistent use of condoms. Few studies have explored the use of games in interventions for increasing condom use by challenging the false sense of security associated with judging the presence of an STI based on attractiveness. Objectives The primary purpose of this study was to explore the potential use of computer simulation as a serious game for sex education. Specific aims were to (1) study the influence of a newly designed serious game on self-rated confidence for assessing STI risk and (2) examine whether this varied by gender, age, and scores on sexuality-related personality trait measures. Methods This paper undertook a Web-based questionnaire study employing between and within subject analyses. A Web-based platform hosted in the United Kingdom was used to deliver male and female stimuli (facial photographs) and collect data. A convenience sample group of 66 participants (64%, 42/66) male, mean age 22.5 years) completed the Term on the Tides, a computer simulation developed for this study. Participants also completed questionnaires on demographics, sexual preferences, sexual risk evaluations, the Sexual Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS), and the Sexual Inhibition Subscale 2 (SIS2) of the Sexual Inhibition/Sexual Excitation Scales-Short Form (SIS/SES - SF). Results The overall confidence of participants to evaluate sexual risks reduced after playing the game (P<.005). Age and personality trait measures did not predict the change in confidence of evaluating risk. Women demonstrated larger shifts in confidence than did men (P=.03). Conclusions This study extends the literature by investigating the potential of computer simulations as a serious game for sex education. Engaging in the Term on the Tides game had an impact on participants’ confidence in evaluating sexual risks. PMID:28468747

Estrogens and women's health: interrelation of coronary heart disease, breast cancer and osteoporosis.

PubMed

Kuller, L H; Matthews, K A; Meilahn, E N

2000-11-30

The determinants of blood levels of estrogen, estrogen metabolites, and relation to receptors and post-transitional effects are the likely primary cause of breast cancer. Very high risk women for breast cancer can now be identified by measuring bone mineral density and hormone levels. These high risk women have rates of breast cancer similar to risk of myocardial infarction. They are candidates for SERM therapies to reduce risk of breast cancer. The completion of the Women's Health Initiative and other such trials will likely provide a definite association of risk and benefit of both estrogen alone and estrogen-progesterone therapy, coronary heart disease, osteoporotic fracture, and breast cancer. The potential intervention of hormone replacement therapy, obesity, or weight gain and increased atherogenic lipoproteinemia may be of concern and confound the results of clinical trials. Estrogens, clearly, are important in the risk of bone loss and osteoporotic fracture. Obesity is the primary determinant of postmenopausal estrogen levels and reduced risk of fracture. Weight reduction may increase rates of bone loss and fracture. Clinical trials that evaluate weight loss should monitor effects on bone. The beneficial addition of increased physical activity, higher dose of calcium or vitamin D, or use of bone reabsorption drugs in coordination with weight loss should be evaluated. Any therapy that raises blood estrogen or metabolite activity and decreases bone loss may increase risk of breast cancer. Future clinical trials must evaluate multiple endpoints such as CHD, osteoporosis, and breast cancer within the study. The use of surrogate markers such as bone mineral density, coronary calcium, carotid intimal medial thickness and plaque, endothelial function, breast density, hormone levels and metabolites could enhance the evaluation of risk factors, genetic-environmental intervention, and new therapies.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification of drugs with different risk profiles.

PubMed

Saedder, Eva Aggerholm; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe Krogsgaard; Lisby, Marianne

2015-08-01

A risk stratification approach is needed to identify patients at high risk of medication errors and a resulting high need of medication review. The aim of this study was to perform risk stratification (distinguishing between low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs) for drugs found to cause serious adverse reactions due to medication errors. The study employed a modified Delphi technique. Drugs from a systematic literature search were included into two rounds of a Delphi process. A panel of experts was asked to evaluate each identified drug's potential for harm and for clinically relevant drug-drug interactions on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 9 (high risk). A total of 36 experts were appointed to serve on the panel. Consensus was reached for 29/57 (51%) drugs or drug classes that cause harm, and for 32/57 (56%) of the drugs or drug classes that cause interactions. For the remaining drugs, a decision was made based on the median score. Two lists, one stating the drugs' potential for causing harm and the other stating clinically relevant drug-drug interactions, were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk drugs. Based on a modified Delphi technique, we created two lists of drugs stratified into a low-risk, a medium-risk and a high-risk group of clinically relevant interactions or risk of harm to patients. The lists could be incorporated into a risk-scoring tool that stratifies the performance of medication reviews according to patients' risk of experiencing adverse reactions. none. not relevant.

Should living kidney donor candidates with impaired fasting glucose donate?

PubMed

Vigneault, Christine Buchek; Asch, William Stuart; Dahl, Neera Kanhouwa; Bia, Margaret Johnson

2011-08-01

As the kidney transplant waiting list grows, the willingness of transplant centers to accept complex donors increases. Guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors exist but do not provide clear guidance when evaluating the complex donor. Although few transplant centers will approve donor candidates with impaired glucose tolerance and most, if not all, will deny candidates with diabetes, many will approve candidates with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Furthermore, the demographic of living donors has changed in the past 10 years to increasingly include more nonwhite and Hispanic individuals who are at greater risk for future diabetes and hypertension. IFG may be more of a concern in potential donors whose nonwhite and Hispanic ethnicity already places them at greater risk. We review the definition of diabetes, diabetes prediction tools, and transplant guidelines for donor screening and exclusion as it pertains to impaired glucose metabolism, and additional ethnic and nonethnic factors to consider. We offer an algorithm to aid in evaluation of potential living donors with IFG in which ethnicity, age, and features of the metabolic syndrome play a role in the decision making.

Uterine Fibroid Embolisation – Potential Impact on Fertility and Pregnancy Outcome

PubMed Central

David, M.; Kröncke, T.

2013-01-01

The current standard therapy to treat myomas in women wishing to have children consists of minimally invasive surgical myomectomy. Uterine artery embolisation (UAE) has also been discussed as another minimally invasive treatment option to treat myomas. This review evaluates the literature of the past 10 years on fibroid embolisation and its impact on fertility and pregnancy. Potential problems associated with UAE such as radiation exposure of the ovaries, impairment of ovarian function and the impact on pregnancy and child birth are discussed in detail. Previously published reports of at least 337 pregnancies after UAE were evaluated. The review concludes that UAE to treat myomas can only be recommended in women with fertility problems due to myomas who refuse surgery or women with an unacceptably high surgical risk, because the evaluated case reports and studies show that UAE significantly increases the risk of spontaneous abortion; there is also evidence of pathologically increased levels for other obstetric outcome parameters. There are still very few prospective studies which provide sufficient evidence for a definitive statement on the impact of UAE therapy on fertility rates and pregnancy outcomes. PMID:26633901

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

PubMed

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents

PubMed Central

Letourneau, Elizabeth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Mauro, Pia M.

2016-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N = 45) or usual services (US; N = 60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. PMID:27629581

Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

PubMed

Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-07

Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.

Chemical speciation and risk assessment of cadmium in soils around a typical coal mining area of China.

PubMed

Cheng, Siwei; Liu, Guijian; Zhou, Chuncai; Sun, Ruoyu

2018-05-21

The distribution characteristics of Cadmium (Cd) fractions in soils around a coal mining area of Huaibei coalfield were investigated, with the aim to assess its ecological risk. The total Cd concentrations in soils ranged from 0.05 to 0.87 mg/kg. The high percentage of phyto-available Cd (58%) when redox or base-acid equilibria changed. Soil pH was found to be a crucial factor affecting soil Cd fraction, and carbonate-bound Cd can be significantly affected by both organic matter and pH of soils. The static ecological evaluation models, including potential ecological risk index (PERI), geo-accumulation index (I geo ) and risk assessment code (RAC), revealed a moderate soil Cd contamination and prensented high Cd exposure risk in studied soils. However, the dynamic evaluation of Cd risk, determined using a delayed geochemical hazard (DGH), suggested that our studied soils can be classified as median-risk with a mean probability of 24.79% for Cd DGH. These results provide a better assessment for the risk development of Cd contamination in coal mining areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience Across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

PubMed Central

Shaw, Daniel S.

2009-01-01

This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent literature, we conclude that resilience, as a global construct, appears to be rare at the highest levels of risk, and that resilience may benefit from a narrower conceptualization focusing on specific outcomes at specific timepoints in development. The implication of this conclusion for future research and intervention efforts is then discussed. PMID:18379875

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Determining when to conduct a violence risk assessment: Development and initial validation of the Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST).

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Barry; Foellmi, Melodie; Khadivi, Ali; Wijetunga, Charity; Howe, Jacqueline; Nijdam-Jones, Alicia; Grover, Shana; Rotter, Merrill

2017-08-01

Techniques to assess violence risk are increasingly common, but no systematic approach exists to help clinicians decide which psychiatric patients are most in need of a violence risk assessment. The Fordham Risk Screening Tool (FRST) was designed to fill this void, providing a structured, systematic approach to screening psychiatric patients and determining the need for further, more thorough violence risk assessment. The FRST was administered to a sample of 210 consecutive admissions to the civil psychiatric units of an urban medical center, 159 of whom were subsequently evaluated using the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, to determine violence risk. The FRST showed a high degree of sensitivity (93%) in identifying patients subsequently deemed to be at high risk for violence (based on the Case Prioritization risk rating). The FRST also identified all of the patients (100%) rated high in potential for severe violence (based on the Serious Physical Harm Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, version 3, summary risk rating). Sensitivity was more modest when individuals rated as moderate risk were included as the criterion (rather than only those identified as high risk). Specificity was also moderate, screening out approximately half of all participants as not needing further risk assessment. A systematic approach to risk screening is clearly needed to prioritize psychiatric admissions for thorough risk assessment, and the FRST appears to be a potentially valuable step in that process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Study Sensitivity: Evaluating the Ability to Detect Effects in Systematic Reviews of Chemical Exposures

PubMed Central

Cooper, Glinda S.; Lunn, Ruth M.; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Glenn, Barbara S.; Kraft, Andrew D.; Luke, April M.; Ratcliffe, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

A critical step in systematic reviews of potential health hazards is the structured evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the included studies; risk of bias is a term often used to represent this process, specifically with respect to the evaluation of systematic errors that can lead to inaccurate (biased) results (i.e. focusing on internal validity). Systematic review methods developed in the clinical medicine arena have been adapted for use in evaluating environmental health hazards; this expansion raises questions about the scope of risk of bias tools and the extent to which they capture the elements that can affect the interpretation of results from environmental and occupational epidemiology studies and in vivo animal toxicology studies, (the studies typically available for assessment of risk of chemicals). One such element, described here as “sensitivity”, is a measure of the ability of a study to detect a true effect or hazard. This concept is similar to the concept of the sensitivity of an assay; an insensitive study may fail to show a difference that truly exists, leading to a false conclusion of no effect. Factors relating to study sensitivity should be evaluated in a systematic manner with the same rigor as the evaluation of other elements within a risk of bias framework. We discuss the importance of this component for the interpretation of individual studies, examine approaches proposed or in use to address it, and describe how it relates to other evaluation components. The evaluation domains contained within a risk of bias tool can include, or can be modified to include, some features relating to study sensitivity; the explicit inclusion of these sensitivity criteria with the same rigor and at the same stage of study evaluation as other bias-related criteria can improve the evaluation process. In some cases, these and other features may be better addressed through a separate sensitivity domain. The combined evaluation of risk of bias and sensitivity can be used to identify the most informative studies, to evaluate the confidence of the findings from individual studies and to identify those study elements that may help to explain heterogeneity across the body of literature. PMID:27156196

Potential of the Trad-MCN assay applied with inflorescences of Tradescantia pallida 'Purpurea' for evaluating air contamination by naphthalene.

PubMed

Alves, Edenise Segala; de Souza, Silvia Ribeiro; Pedroso, Andrea Nunes Vaz; Domingos, Marisa

2008-11-01

The aims of this study were to determine clastogenic responses of Tradescantia pallida cv. Purpurea to naphthalene (NAPH) by means of the bioassay Trad-MCN with inflorescences of T. pallida cv. Purpurea and to verify if this assay might be an indicator of the potential risk imposed in a workplace, where solid insecticide containing NAPH is usually applied. The clastogenic potential of NAPH was assessed by using static and dynamic experimental systems. In both systems, increased micronucleus frequencies were observed in inflorescences submitted to increasing concentrations of solid or gaseous NAPH. The evident clastogenicity verified in inflorescences exposed experimentally to 25-50 mg m(-3) of NAPH during 6h points to a narrow threshold of plant sensitivity, indicating risks under lower NAPH levels than the standards established by OSHA and therefore revealing its suitability for biomonitoring purposes. However, the clastogenic risk should be carefully investigated by other monitoring methods if human health is taken into consideration.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential problems of detecting and treating psychosis in the White House. Potential psychosis in the White House.

PubMed

Gambill, J

1980-01-01

Numerous books and articles have described the emotional difficulties suffered by President Nixon and how they influenced functioning in the White House and other branches of government during his presidency. I am not able to ascertain whether Nixon was temporarily psychotic; but the reported emotional turmoil suggests he may have been at high risk for committing suicide or developing a psychosis. This article analyzes the reactions of numerous people to the questionably irrational behaviour of Richard Nixon. Examples of psychiatric risks in other Presidents, presidential candidates, and public figures are also discussed. The potential difficulties in detecting and treating severe psychiatric illness in Presidents and other public figures should not prevent us from taking action now to minimize future risks. It is recommended that future Presidents appoint a psychiatrist, at least on a part-time basis, as one of their personal physicians in order to increase Presidential access to psychiatric evaluation and treatment.

The impact of genetically modified crops on soil microbial communities.

PubMed

Giovannetti, Manuela; Sbrana, Cristiana; Turrini, Alessandra

2005-01-01

Genetically modified (GM) plants represent a potential benefit for environmentally friendly agriculture and human health. Though, poor knowledge is available on potential hazards posed by unintended modifications occurring during genetic manipulation. The increasing amount of reports on ecological risks and benefits of GM plants stresses the need for experimental works aimed at evaluating the impact of GM crops on natural and agro-ecosystems. Major environmental risks associated with GM crops include their potential impact on non-target soil microorganisms playing a fundamental role in crop residues degradation and in biogeochemical cycles. Recent works assessed the effects of GM crops on soil microbial communities on the basis of case-by-case studies, using multimodal experimental approaches involving different target and non-target organisms. Experimental evidences discussed in this review confirm that a precautionary approach should be adopted, by taking into account the risks associated with the unpredictability of transformation events, of their pleiotropic effects and of the fate of transgenes in natural and agro-ecosystems, weighing benefits against costs.

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherson, Mark A.; Mendeck, Gavin F.

2011-01-01

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

TECHNICAL REPORT ON TECHNOLOGICALLY ENHANCED NATURALLY OCCURRING RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS FROM URANIUM MINING, VOLUME II: INVESTIGATION OF POTENTIAL HEALTH, GEOGRAPHIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OF ABANDONED URANIUM MINES

EPA Science Inventory

Volume II investigates the potential radiogenic risks from abandoned uranium mines and evaluates which may pose the greatest hazards to members of the public and to the environment. The intent of this report is to identify who may be most likely to be exposed to wastes at small a...

Catalogue of Risks: Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, Kristie L.

2009-01-01

Financial, geophysical, and terrorist-related disasters have been headline news in the past few months. As amply demonstrated on a regular basis, the recognition and evaluation of risks are skills that could be more widespread. As such, Proske's Catalogue of Risks is timely and of potential interest. The book is a revised and expanded version of an earlier German publication that aims to provide an encyclopedic discussion of issues related to risks and disasters, with a goal of facilitating an understanding of the components and assessment of risk. The book includes chapters that discuss the difficulty of coming to a consensus on a definition of risk, a comprehensive range of risks and disasters, objective risk measures, subjective risk judgment, quality of life measures, and legal aspects of risk. The book ends with an example of applying the concepts discussed to ship impacts against bridges.

Activity Monitoring and Heart Rate Variability as Indicators of Fall Risk: Proof-of-Concept for Application of Wearable Sensors in the Acute Care Setting.

PubMed

Razjouyan, Javad; Grewal, Gurtej Singh; Rishel, Cindy; Parthasarathy, Sairam; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

2017-07-01

Growing concern for falls in acute care settings could be addressed with objective evaluation of fall risk. The current proof-of-concept study evaluated the feasibility of using a chest-worn sensor during hospitalization to determine fall risk. Physical activity and heart rate variability (HRV) of 31 volunteers admitted to a 29-bed adult inpatient unit were recorded using a single chest-worn sensor. Sensor data during the first 24-hour recording were analyzed. Participants were stratified using the Hendrich II fall risk assessment into high and low fall risk groups. Univariate analysis revealed age, daytime activity, nighttime side lying posture, and HRV were significantly different between groups. Results suggest feasibility of wearable technology to consciously monitor physical activity, sleep postures, and HRV as potential markers of fall risk in the acute care setting. Further study is warranted to confirm the results and examine the efficacy of the proposed wearable technology to manage falls in hospitals. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 43(7), 53-62.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients.

PubMed

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-19

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide.

Suicide Risk Associated with Experience of Violence and Impulsivity in Alcohol Dependent Patients

PubMed Central

Khemiri, Lotfi; Jokinen, Jussi; Runeson, Bo; Jayaram-Lindström, Nitya

2016-01-01

Alcohol dependence (AD) and aggression-impulsivity are both associated with increased suicide risk. There is a need to evaluate clinical tools in order to improve suicide risk assessment of AD patients. The present study consisted of 95 individuals with a diagnosis of AD, consecutively admitted for addiction treatment, compared with 95 healthy controls. Suicidal risk was assessed together with exposure of violence and impulsivity. AD patients reported significantly higher rates of exposure to violence in childhood, as measured by the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), compared to HC. Within the AD group, individuals with history of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior reported higher levels of violence experience compared to AD individuals without such history. AD patients with previous suicidal ideation scored higher on self-reported impulsivity as assessed by the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS). Our main finding was that experience of trauma and expression of violent behavior, coupled with increased impulsivity are associated with an elevated suicide risk in AD patients. Future longitudinal studies assessing these traits are needed to evaluate their potential role in identifying AD patients at risk of future suicide. PMID:26784730

Nutritional approach for designing meat-based functional food products with nuts.

PubMed

Olmedilla-Alonso, B; Granado-Lorencio, F; Herrero-Barbudo, C; Blanco-Navarro, I

2006-01-01

Meat and meat products are essential components of diets in developed countries and despite the convincing evidence that relate them to an increased risk for CVD, a growing consumption of meat products is foreseen. Epidemiological studies show that regular consumption of nuts, in general, and walnuts in particular, correlates inversely with myocardial infarction and ischaemic vascular disease. We assess the nutritional basis for and technological approach to the development of functional meat-based products potentially relevant in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. Using the available strategies in the meat industry (reformulation processes) and a food-based approach, we address the design and development of restructured beef steak with added walnuts, potentially functional for CVD risk reduction. Its adequacy as a vehicle for active nutrients is confirmed by a pharmacokinetic pilot study in humans using gamma-tocopherol as an exposure biomarker in chylomicrons during the post-prandial state. Effect and potential "functionality" is being assessed by a dietary intervention study in subjects at risk and markers and indicators related to CVD are being evaluated. Within the conceptual framework of evidence-based medicine, development of meat-based functional products may become a useful approach for specific applications, with a potential market and health benefits of great importance at a population level.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Myopathy induced by statin-ezetimibe combination: Evaluation of potential risk factors.

PubMed

Brahmachari, Ballari; Chatterjee, Suparna

2015-01-01

Although both atorvastatin and ezetimibe may cause myopathy, statin-induced myopathy is less likely at low doses, and ezetimibe is only rarely reported to induce myopathy. Also, ezetimibe is not usually known to potentiate statin-induced myopathy. We report a case of myalgia with elevated serum creatinine phosphokinase in a patient after 2 months of therapy with fixed dose combination of atorvastatin and ezetimibe (10 mg each). At the time of the event, patient was undertaking moderate physical exertion in the form of brisk walking for 30-40 min a day and was detected to have low serum Vitamin D levels. The adverse event resolved after stopping atorvastatin-ezetimibe combination therapy. Potential risk factors, such as physical exertion and Vitamin D deficiency, co-existent in dyslipidemic patients, may exacerbate myopathy potential of these drugs, and precipitate muscular symptoms even at a low-dose.

Plasma free amino acid profiles evaluate risk of metabolic syndrome, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, M H; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi-Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko; Kageyama, Naoko; Nakamura, Mina; Tanabe, Tsuyoshi

2017-04-07

Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association with variables associated with obesity, blood glucose, lipid, and blood pressure. We also evaluated the PFAA indexes that reflect visceral fat obesity and insulin resistance. The contribution of single PFAA level and relevant PFAA indexes was also examined in the risk assessment of lifestyle-related diseases. Of the 19 amino acids, branched-chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids showed association with obesity and lipid variables. The PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity showed relatively higher correlation with variables than that of any PFAA. In the evaluation of lifestyle-related disease risks, the odds ratios of the PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity or insulin resistance with the diseases were higher than most of those of individual amino acid levels even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The association pattern of the indexes and PFAA with each lifestyle-related disease was distinct. We confirmed the usefulness of PFAA profiles and indexes as markers for evaluating the risks of lifestyle-related diseases, including diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.

76 FR 31592 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife; Notice of 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Goliath...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-01

... evaluate whether the information indicates that the species at issue faces extinction risk that is cause... negative fashion; then we assess the potential significance of that negative response. Many petitions...

The Exposure Data Landscape for Manufactured Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is developing chemical screening and prioritization programs to evaluate environmental chemicals for potential risk to human health in a rapid and efficient manner. As part of these efforts, it is important to catalog available information...