Can shoulder dystocia be reliably predicted?

PubMed

Dodd, Jodie M; Catcheside, Britt; Scheil, Wendy

2012-06-01

To evaluate factors reported to increase the risk of shoulder dystocia, and to evaluate their predictive value at a population level. The South Australian Pregnancy Outcome Unit's population database from 2005 to 2010 was accessed to determine the occurrence of shoulder dystocia in addition to reported risk factors, including age, parity, self-reported ethnicity, presence of diabetes and infant birth weight. Odds ratios (and 95% confidence interval) of shoulder dystocia was calculated for each risk factor, which were then incorporated into a logistic regression model. Test characteristics for each variable in predicting shoulder dystocia were calculated. As a proportion of all births, the reported rate of shoulder dystocia increased significantly from 0.95% in 2005 to 1.38% in 2010 (P = 0.0002). Using a logistic regression model, induction of labour and infant birth weight greater than both 4000 and 4500 g were identified as significant independent predictors of shoulder dystocia. The value of risk factors alone and when incorporated into the logistic regression model was poorly predictive of the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. While there are a number of factors associated with an increased risk of shoulder dystocia, none are of sufficient sensitivity or positive predictive value to allow their use clinically to reliably and accurately identify the occurrence of shoulder dystocia. © 2012 The Authors ANZJOG © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The Gastric/Pancreatic Amylase Ratio Predicts Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula With High Sensitivity and Specificity

PubMed Central

Jin, Shuo; Shi, Xiao-Ju; Sun, Xiao-Dong; Zhang, Ping; Lv, Guo-Yue; Du, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Guang-Yi

2015-01-01

Abstract This article aims to identify risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and evaluate the gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio (GPAR) on postoperative day (POD) 3 as a POPF predictor in patients who undergo pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). POPF significantly contributes to mortality and morbidity in patients who undergo PD. Previously identified predictors for POPF often have low predictive accuracy. Therefore, accurate POPF predictors are needed. In this prospective cohort study, we measured the clinical and biochemical factors of 61 patients who underwent PD and diagnosed POPF according to the definition of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula. We analyzed the association between POPF and various factors, identified POPF risk factors, and evaluated the predictive power of the GPAR on POD3 and the levels of serum and ascites amylase. Of the 61 patients, 21 developed POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid, POD1 serum, POD1 median output of pancreatic drain fluid volume, and GPAR were significantly associated with POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid and high GPAR were independent risk factors. Although serum and ascites amylase did not predict POPF accurately, the cutoff value was 1.24, and GPAR predicted POPF with high sensitivity and specificity. This is the first report demonstrating that high GPAR on POD3 is a risk factor for POPF and showing that GPAR is a more accurate predictor of POPF than the previously reported amylase markers. PMID:25621676

The gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula with high sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Jin, Shuo; Shi, Xiao-Ju; Sun, Xiao-Dong; Zhang, Ping; Lv, Guo-Yue; Du, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Guang-Yi

2015-01-01

This article aims to identify risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and evaluate the gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio (GPAR) on postoperative day (POD) 3 as a POPF predictor in patients who undergo pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).POPF significantly contributes to mortality and morbidity in patients who undergo PD. Previously identified predictors for POPF often have low predictive accuracy. Therefore, accurate POPF predictors are needed.In this prospective cohort study, we measured the clinical and biochemical factors of 61 patients who underwent PD and diagnosed POPF according to the definition of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula. We analyzed the association between POPF and various factors, identified POPF risk factors, and evaluated the predictive power of the GPAR on POD3 and the levels of serum and ascites amylase.Of the 61 patients, 21 developed POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid, POD1 serum, POD1 median output of pancreatic drain fluid volume, and GPAR were significantly associated with POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid and high GPAR were independent risk factors. Although serum and ascites amylase did not predict POPF accurately, the cutoff value was 1.24, and GPAR predicted POPF with high sensitivity and specificity.This is the first report demonstrating that high GPAR on POD3 is a risk factor for POPF and showing that GPAR is a more accurate predictor of POPF than the previously reported amylase markers.

Discomfort Intolerance: Evaluation of a Potential Risk Factor for Anxiety Psychopathology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Norman B.; Richey, J. Anthony; Cromer, Kiara R.; Buckner, Julia D.

2007-01-01

Discomfort intolerance, defined as an individual difference in the capacity to tolerate unpleasant bodily sensations, is a construct recently posited as a risk factor for panic and anxiety psychopathology. The present report used a biological challenge procedure to evaluate whether discomfort intolerance predicts fearful responding beyond the…

Is the Factor-of-2 Rule Broadly Applicable for Evaluating the Prediction Accuracy of Metal-Toxicity Models?

PubMed

Meyer, Joseph S; Traudt, Elizabeth M; Ranville, James F

2018-01-01

In aquatic toxicology, a toxicity-prediction model is generally deemed acceptable if its predicted median lethal concentrations (LC50 values) or median effect concentrations (EC50 values) are within a factor of 2 of their paired, observed LC50 or EC50 values. However, that rule of thumb is based on results from only two studies: multiple LC50 values for the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposed to Cu in one type of exposure water, and multiple EC50 values for Daphnia magna exposed to Zn in another type of exposure water. We tested whether the factor-of-2 rule of thumb also is supported in a different dataset in which D. magna were exposed separately to Cd, Cu, Ni, or Zn. Overall, the factor-of-2 rule of thumb appeared to be a good guide to evaluating the acceptability of a toxicity model's underprediction or overprediction of observed LC50 or EC50 values in these acute toxicity tests.

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jesse S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Burdett, Chris L.; Theobald, David M.; Gray, Miranda; Miller, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors. PMID:28276519

Rising to the challenge: acute stress appraisals and selection centre performance in applicants to postgraduate specialty training in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Roberts, Martin J; Gale, Thomas C E; McGrath, John S; Wilson, Mark R

2016-05-01

The ability to work under pressure is a vital non-technical skill for doctors working in acute medical specialties. Individuals who evaluate potentially stressful situations as challenging rather than threatening may perform better under pressure and be more resilient to stress and burnout. Training programme recruitment processes provide an important opportunity to examine applicants' reactions to acute stress. In the context of multi-station selection centres for recruitment to anaesthesia training programmes, we investigated the factors influencing candidates' pre-station challenge/threat evaluations and the extent to which their evaluations predicted subsequent station performance. Candidates evaluated the perceived stress of upcoming stations using a measure of challenge/threat evaluation-the cognitive appraisal ratio (CAR)-and consented to release their demographic details and station scores. Using regression analyses we determined which candidate and station factors predicted variation in the CAR and whether, after accounting for these factors, the CAR predicted candidate performance in the station. The CAR was affected by the nature of the station and candidate gender, but not age, ethnicity, country of training or clinical experience. Candidates perceived stations involving work related tasks as more threatening. After controlling for candidates' demographic and professional profiles, the CAR significantly predicted station performance: 'challenge' evaluations were associated with better performance, though the effect was weak. Our selection centre model can help recruit prospective anaesthetists who are able to rise to the challenge of performing in stressful situations but results do not support the direct use of challenge/threat data for recruitment decisions.

[Study on artificial neural network combined with multispectral remote sensing imagery for forest site evaluation].

PubMed

Gong, Yin-Xi; He, Cheng; Yan, Fei; Feng, Zhong-Ke; Cao, Meng-Lei; Gao, Yuan; Miao, Jie; Zhao, Jin-Long

2013-10-01

Multispectral remote sensing data containing rich site information are not fully used by the classic site quality evaluation system, as it merely adopts artificial ground survey data. In order to establish a more effective site quality evaluation system, a neural network model which combined remote sensing spectra factors with site factors and site index relations was established and used to study the sublot site quality evaluation in the Wangyedian Forest Farm in Inner Mongolia Province, Chifeng City. Based on the improved back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN), this model combined multispectral remote sensing data with sublot survey data, and took larch as example, Through training data set sensitivity analysis weak or irrelevant factor was excluded, the size of neural network was simplified, and the efficiency of network training was improved. This optimal site index prediction model had an accuracy up to 95.36%, which was 9.83% higher than that of the neural network model based on classic sublot survey data, and this shows that using multi-spectral remote sensing and small class survey data to determine the status of larch index prediction model has the highest predictive accuracy. The results fully indicate the effectiveness and superiority of this method.

Roles of Clinician, Patient, and Community Characteristics in the Management of Pediatric Upper Respiratory Tract Infections.

PubMed

Yaeger, Jeffrey P; Temte, Jonathan L; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Martinez-Donate, P

2015-11-01

Prior studies have evaluated factors predictive of inappropriate antibiotic prescription for upper respiratory tract infections (URIs). Community factors, however, have not been examined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the roles of patient, clinician, and community factors in predicting appropriate management of URIs in children. We used a novel database exchange, linking electronic health record data with community statistics, to identify all patients aged 3 months to 18 years in whom URI was diagnosed in the period from 2007 to 2012. We followed the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) quality measurement titled "Appropriate treatment for children with upper respiratory infection" to determine the rate of appropriate management of URIs. We then stratified data across individual and community characteristics and used multiple logistic regression modeling to identify variables that independently predicted antibiotic prescription. Of 20,581 patients, the overall rate for appropriate management for URI was 93.5%. Family medicine clinicians (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.31, 1.71; reference = pediatric clinicians), urgent care clinicians (AOR = 2.23; 95% CI 1.93, 2.57; reference = pediatric clinicians), patients aged 12 to 18 years (AOR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.25, 1.67; reference = age 3 months to 4 years), and patients of white race/ ethnicity (AOR = 1.83; 95% CI 1.41, 2.37; reference = black non-Hispanic) were independently predictive of antibiotic prescription. No community factors were independently predictive of antibiotic prescription. Results correlate with prior studies in which non-pediatric clinicians and white race/ethnicity were predictive of antibiotic prescription, while association with older patient age has not been previously reported. Findings illustrate the promise of linking electronic health records with community data to evaluate health care disparities. © 2015 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

The Relative Importance of Family History, Gender, Mode of Onset, and Age at Onsetin Predicting Clinical Features of First-Episode Psychotic Disorders.

PubMed

Compton, Michael T; Berez, Chantal; Walker, Elaine F

Family history of psychosis, gender, mode of onset, and age at onset are considered prognostic factors important to clinicians evaluating first-episode psychosis; yet, clinicians have little guidance as to how these four factors differentially predict early-course substance abuse, symptomatology, and functioning. We conducted a "head-to-head comparison" of these four factors regarding their associations with key clinical features at initial hospitalization. We also assessed potential interactions between gender and family history with regard to age at onset of psychosis and symptom severity. Consecutively admitted first-episode patients (n=334) were evaluated in two studies that rigorously assessed a number of early-course variables. Associations among variables of interest were examined using Pearson correlations, χ 2 tests, Student's t-tests, and 2×2 factorial analyses of variance. Substance (nicotine, alcohol, and cannabis) abuse and positive symptom severity were predicted only by male gender. Negative symptom severity and global functioning impairments were predicted by earlier age at onset of psychosis. General psychopathology symptom severity was predicted by both mode of onset and age at onset. Interaction effects were not observed with regard to gender and family history in predicting age at onset or symptom severity. The four prognostic features have differential associations with substance abuse, domains of symptom severity, and global functioning. Gender and age at onset of psychosis appear to be more predictive of clinical features at the time of initial evaluation (and thus presumably longer term outcomes) than the presence of a family history of psychosis and a more gradual mode of onset.

[Advance in researches on vegetation cover and management factor in the soil erosion prediction model].

PubMed

Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Jianping; Liu, Baoyuan

2002-08-01

Vegetation cover and land management are the main limiting factors of soil erosion, and quantitative evaluation on the effect of different vegetation on soil erosion is essential to land use and soil conservation planning. The vegetation cover and management factor (C) in the universal soil loss equation (USLE) is an index to evaluate this effect, which has been studied deeply and used widely. However, the C factor study is insufficient in China. In order to strengthen the research of C factor, this paper reviewed the developing progress of C factor, and compared the methods of estimating C value in different USLE versions. The relative studies in China were also summarized from the aspects of vegetation canopy coverage, soil surface cover, and root density. Three problems in C factor study were pointed out. The authors suggested that cropland C factor research should be furthered, and its methodology should be unified in China to represent reliable C values for soil loss prediction and conservation planning.

Evaluating the predictive abilities of community occupancy models using AUC while accounting for imperfect detection.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Fagan, William F

2012-10-01

The ability to accurately predict patterns of species' occurrences is fundamental to the successful management of animal communities. To determine optimal management strategies, it is essential to understand species-habitat relationships and how species habitat use is related to natural or human-induced environmental changes. Using five years of monitoring data in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA, we developed four multispecies hierarchical models for estimating amphibian wetland use that account for imperfect detection during sampling. The models were designed to determine which factors (wetland habitat characteristics, annual trend effects, spring/summer precipitation, and previous wetland occupancy) were most important for predicting future habitat use. We used the models to make predictions about species occurrences in sampled and unsampled wetlands and evaluated model projections using additional data. Using a Bayesian approach, we calculated a posterior distribution of receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) values, which allowed us to explicitly quantify the uncertainty in the quality of our predictions and to account for false negatives in the evaluation data set. We found that wetland hydroperiod (the length of time that a wetland holds water), as well as the occurrence state in the prior year, were generally the most important factors in determining occupancy. The model with habitat-only covariates predicted species occurrences well; however, knowledge of wetland use in the previous year significantly improved predictive ability at the community level and for two of 12 species/species complexes. Our results demonstrate the utility of multispecies models for understanding which factors affect species habitat use of an entire community (of species) and provide an improved methodology using AUC that is helpful for quantifying the uncertainty in model predictions while explicitly accounting for detection biases.

Evaluating the predictive abilities of community occupancy models using AUC while accounting for imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Fagan, William F.

2012-01-01

The ability to accurately predict patterns of species' occurrences is fundamental to the successful management of animal communities. To determine optimal management strategies, it is essential to understand species-habitat relationships and how species habitat use is related to natural or human-induced environmental changes. Using five years of monitoring data in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA, we developed four multi-species hierarchical models for estimating amphibian wetland use that account for imperfect detection during sampling. The models were designed to determine which factors (wetland habitat characteristics, annual trend effects, spring/summer precipitation, and previous wetland occupancy) were most important for predicting future habitat use. We used the models to make predictions of species occurrences in sampled and unsampled wetlands and evaluated model projections using additional data. Using a Bayesian approach, we calculated a posterior distribution of receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) values, which allowed us to explicitly quantify the uncertainty in the quality of our predictions and to account for false negatives in the evaluation dataset. We found that wetland hydroperiod (the length of time that a wetland holds water) as well as the occurrence state in the prior year were generally the most important factors in determining occupancy. The model with only habitat covariates predicted species occurrences well; however, knowledge of wetland use in the previous year significantly improved predictive ability at the community level and for two of 12 species/species complexes. Our results demonstrate the utility of multi-species models for understanding which factors affect species habitat use of an entire community (of species) and provide an improved methodology using AUC that is helpful for quantifying the uncertainty in model predictions while explicitly accounting for detection biases.

Proposal for a recovery prediction method for patients affected by acute mediastinitis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An attempt to find a prediction method of death risk in patients affected by acute mediastinitis. There is not such a tool described in available literature for that serious disease. Methods The study comprised 44 consecutive cases of acute mediastinitis. General anamnesis and biochemical data were included. Factor analysis was used to extract the risk characteristic for the patients. The most valuable results were obtained for 8 parameters which were selected for further statistical analysis (all collected during few hours after admission). Three factors reached Eigenvalue >1. Clinical explanations of these combined statistical factors are: Factor1 - proteinic status (serum total protein, albumin, and hemoglobin level), Factor2 - inflammatory status (white blood cells, CRP, procalcitonin), and Factor3 - general risk (age, number of coexisting diseases). Threshold values of prediction factors were estimated by means of statistical analysis (factor analysis, Statgraphics Centurion XVI). Results The final prediction result for the patients is constructed as simultaneous evaluation of all factor scores. High probability of death should be predicted if factor 1 value decreases with simultaneous increase of factors 2 and 3. The diagnostic power of the proposed method was revealed to be high [sensitivity =90%, specificity =64%], for Factor1 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 79%]; for Factor2 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 50%] and for Factor3 [SNC = 73%, SPC = 71%]. Conclusion The proposed prediction method seems a useful emergency signal during acute mediastinitis control in affected patients. PMID:22574625

Biochemical, endocrine, and hematological factors in human oxygen tolerance extension: Predictive studies 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambertsen, C. J.; Clark, J. M.

1992-01-01

The Predictive Studies VI (Biochemical, endocrine, and hematological factors in human oxygen tolerance extension) Program consisted of two related areas of research activity, integrated in design and performance, that were each based on an ongoing analysis of human organ oxygen tolerance data obtained for the continuous oxygen exposures of the prior Predictive Studies V Program. The two research areas effectively blended broad investigation of systematically varied intermittent exposure patterns in animals with very selective evaluation of specific exposure patterns in man.

Can Rheumatologists Predict Eventual Need for Orthopaedic Intervention in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis? Results of a Systematic Review and Analysis of Two UK Inception Cohorts.

PubMed

Nikiphorou, Elena; Carpenter, Lewis; Norton, Sam; Morris, Stephen; MacGregor, Alex; Dixey, Josh; Williams, Peter; Kiely, Patrick; Walsh, David Andrew; Young, Adam

2017-03-01

The structural damage caused by rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can often be mitigated by orthopaedic surgery in late disease. This study evaluates the value of predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention. A systematic review of literature was undertaken to identify papers describing predictive factors for orthopaedic surgery in RA. Manuscripts were selected if they met inclusion criteria of cohort study design, diagnosis of RA, follow-up duration/disease duration ≥3 years, any orthopaedic surgical interventions recorded, and then summarised for predictive factors. A separate predictive analysis was performed on two consecutive UK Early RA cohorts, linked to national datasets. The literature search identified 15 reports examining predictive factors for orthopaedic intervention, 4 inception, 5 prospective and 6 retrospective. Despite considerable variation, acute phase, x-ray scores, women and genotyping were the most commonly reported prognostic markers. The current predictive analysis included 1602 procedures performed in 711 patients (25-year cumulative incidence 26%). Earlier recruitment year, erosions and lower haemoglobin predicted both intermediate and major surgery (P<0.05). Studies report variations in type of and predictive power of clinical and laboratory parameters for different surgical interventions suggesting specific contributions from different pathological and/or patient-level factors. Our current analysis suggests that attention to non-inflammatory factors in addition to suppression of inflammation is needed to minimise the burden of orthopaedic surgery.

FACTORS INFLUENCING PREDICTION OF BROMODICHLOROMETHANE (BDCM) IN EXHALED BREATH: FURTHER EVALUATION OF A HUMAN BDCM PBPK MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the predictive capability of a PBPK model is increased when the model is demonstrated to predict multiple pharmacokinetic outcomes from diverse studies under different exposure conditions. We previously showed that our multi-route human BDCM PBPK model adequately (w...

An Examination of the Predictive Relationships of Self-Evaluation Capacity and Staff Competency on Strategic Planning in Hong Kong Aided Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Eric C. K.

2011-01-01

This article aims to examine the predictive relationships of self-evaluation capacity and staff competency on the effect of strategic planning in aided secondary schools in Hong Kong. A quantitative questionnaire survey was compiled to collect data from principals of the participating schools. Confirmatory factor analysis and reliability tests…

Predicting Resident Performance from Preresidency Factors: A Systematic Review and Applicability to Neurosurgical Training.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Kelly, Patrick D; Dewan, Michael C; Morone, Peter J; Yengo-Kahn, Aaron M; Magarik, Jordan A; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Zusman, Edie E; Solomon, Gary S; Wellons, John C

2018-02-01

Neurosurgical educators strive to identify the best applicants, yet formal study of resident selection has proved difficult. We conducted a systematic review to answer the following question: What objective and subjective preresidency factors predict resident success? PubMed, ProQuest, Embase, and the CINAHL databases were queried from 1952 to 2015 for literature reporting the impact of preresidency factors (PRFs) on outcomes of residency success (RS), among neurosurgery and all surgical subspecialties. Due to heterogeneity of specialties and outcomes, a qualitative summary and heat map of significant findings were constructed. From 1489 studies, 21 articles met inclusion criteria, which evaluated 1276 resident applicants across five surgical subspecialties. No neurosurgical studies met the inclusion criteria. Common objective PRFs included standardized testing (76%), medical school performance (48%), and Alpha Omega Alpha (43%). Common subjective PRFs included aggregate rank scores (57%), letters of recommendation (38%), research (33%), interviews (19%), and athletic or musical talent (19%). Outcomes of RS included faculty evaluations, in-training/board exams, chief resident status, and research productivity. Among objective factors, standardized test scores correlated well with in-training/board examinations but poorly correlated with faculty evaluations. Among subjective factors, aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent demonstrated moderate correlation with faculty evaluations. Standardized testing most strongly correlated with future examination performance but correlated poorly with faculty evaluations. Moderate predictors of faculty evaluations were aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent. The ability to predict success of neurosurgical residents using an evidence-based approach is limited, and few factors have correlated with future resident performance. Given the importance of recruitment to the greater field of neurosurgery, these data provide support for a national, prospective effort to improve the study of neurosurgery resident selection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Application of decision curve on evaluation of MRI predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer].

PubMed

He, Y J; Li, X T; Fan, Z Q; Li, Y L; Cao, K; Sun, Y S; Ouyang, T

2018-01-23

Objective: To construct a dynamic enhanced MR based predictive model for early assessing pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer, and to evaluate the clinical benefit of the model by using decision curve. Methods: From December 2005 to December 2007, 170 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy were identified and their MR images before neoadjuvant therapy and at the end of the first cycle of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. Logistic regression model was used to detect independent factors for predicting pCR and construct the predictive model accordingly, then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive model. Results: ΔArea(max) and Δslope(max) were independent predictive factors for pCR, OR =0.942 (95% CI : 0.918-0.967) and 0.961 (95% CI : 0.940-0.987), respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUC) for the constructed model was 0.886 (95% CI : 0.820-0.951). Decision curve showed that in the range of the threshold probability above 0.4, the predictive model presented increased net benefit as the threshold probability increased. Conclusions: The constructed predictive model for pCR is of potential clinical value, with an AUC>0.85. Meanwhile, decision curve analysis indicates the constructed predictive model has net benefit from 3 to 8 percent in the likely range of probability threshold from 80% to 90%.

Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

Effect of Combined Loading Due to Bending and Internal Pressure on Pipe Flaw Evaluation Criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miura, Naoki; Sakai, Shinsuke

Considering a rule for the rationalization of maintenance of Light Water Reactor piping, reliable flaw evaluation criteria are essential for determining how a detected flaw will be detrimental to continuous plant operation. Ductile fracture is one of the dominant failure modes that must be considered for carbon steel piping and can be analyzed by elastic-plastic fracture mechanics. Some analytical efforts have provided various flaw evaluation criteria using load correction factors, such as the Z-factors in the JSME codes on fitness-for-service for nuclear power plants and the section XI of the ASME boiler and pressure vessel code. The present Z-factors were conventionally determined, taking conservativity and simplicity into account; however, the effect of internal pressure, which is an important factor under actual plant conditions, was not adequately considered. Recently, a J-estimation scheme, LBB.ENGC for the ductile fracture analysis of circumferentially through-wall-cracked pipes subjected to combined loading was developed for more accurate prediction under more realistic conditions. This method explicitly incorporates the contributions of both bending and tension due to internal pressure by means of a scheme that is compatible with an arbitrary combined-loading history. In this study, the effect of internal pressure on the flaw evaluation criteria was investigated using the new J-estimation scheme. The Z-factor obtained in this study was compared with the presently used Z-factors, and the predictability of the current flaw evaluation criteria was quantitatively evaluated in consideration of the internal pressure.

Predictive factors for work capacity in patients with musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed

Lydell, Marie; Baigi, Amir; Marklund, Bertil; Månsson, Jörgen

2005-09-01

To identify predictive factors for work capacity in patients with musculoskeletal disorders. A descriptive, evaluative, quantitative study. The study was based on 385 patients who participated in a rehabilitation programme. Patients were divided into 2 groups depending on their ability to work. The groups were compared with each other with regard to sociodemographic factors, diagnoses, disability pension and number of sick days. The patient's level of exercise habits, ability to undertake activities, physical capacity, pain and quality of life were compared further using logistic regression analysis. Predictive factors for work capacity, such as ability to undertake activities, quality of life and fitness on exercise, were identified as important independent factors. Other well-known factors, i.e. gender, age, education, pain and earlier sickness certification periods, were also identified. Factors that were not significantly different between the groups were employment status, profession, diagnosis and levels of exercise habits. Identifying predictors for ability to return to work is an essential task for deciding on suitable individual rehabilitation. This study identified new predictive factors, such as ability to undertake activities, quality of life and fitness on exercise.

Novel biomarkers for predicting intrauterine growth restriction: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Conde-Agudelo, A; Papageorghiou, A T; Kennedy, S H; Villar, J

2013-05-01

Several biomarkers for predicting intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) have been proposed in recent years. However, the predictive performance of these biomarkers has not been systematically evaluated. To determine the predictive accuracy of novel biomarkers for IUGR in women with singleton gestations. Electronic databases, reference list checking and conference proceedings. Observational studies that evaluated the accuracy of novel biomarkers proposed for predicting IUGR. Data were extracted on characteristics, quality and predictive accuracy from each study to construct 2×2 tables. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities and likelihood ratios (LRs) were generated. A total of 53 studies, including 39,974 women and evaluating 37 novel biomarkers, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Overall, the predictive accuracy of angiogenic factors for IUGR was minimal (median pooled positive and negative LRs of 1.7, range 1.0-19.8; and 0.8, range 0.0-1.0, respectively). Two small case-control studies reported high predictive values for placental growth factor and angiopoietin-2 only when IUGR was defined as birthweight centile with clinical or pathological evidence of fetal growth restriction. Biomarkers related to endothelial function/oxidative stress, placental protein/hormone, and others such as serum levels of vitamin D, urinary albumin:creatinine ratio, thyroid function tests and metabolomic profile had low predictive accuracy. None of the novel biomarkers evaluated in this review are sufficiently accurate to recommend their use as predictors of IUGR in routine clinical practice. However, the use of biomarkers in combination with biophysical parameters and maternal characteristics could be more useful and merits further research. © 2013 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2013 RCOG.

Not the Same Old Thing: Establishing the Unique Contribution of Drinking Identity as a Predictor of Alcohol Consumption and Problems Over Time

PubMed Central

Lindgren, Kristen P.; Ramirez, Jason J.; Olin, Cecilia C.; Neighbors, Clayton

2016-01-01

Drinking identity – how much individuals view themselves as drinkers– is a promising cognitive factor that predicts problem drinking. Implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity have been developed (the former assesses more reflexive/automatic cognitive processes; the latter more reflective/controlled cognitive processes): each predicts unique variance in alcohol consumption and problems. However, implicit and explicit identity’s utility and uniqueness as a predictor relative to cognitive factors important for problem drinking screening and intervention has not been evaluated. Thus, the current study evaluated implicit and explicit drinking identity as predictors of consumption and problems over time. Baseline measures of drinking identity, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking motives were evaluated as predictors of consumption and problems (evaluated every three months over two academic years) in a sample of 506 students (57% female) in their first or second year of college. Results found that baseline identity measures predicted unique variance in consumption and problems over time. Further, when compared to each set of cognitive factors, the identity measures predicted unique variance in consumption and problems over time. Findings were more robust for explicit, versus, implicit identity and in models that did not control for baseline drinking. Drinking identity appears to be a unique predictor of problem drinking relative to social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking motives. Intervention and theory could benefit from including and considering drinking identity. PMID:27428756

Not the same old thing: Establishing the unique contribution of drinking identity as a predictor of alcohol consumption and problems over time.

PubMed

Lindgren, Kristen P; Ramirez, Jason J; Olin, Cecilia C; Neighbors, Clayton

2016-09-01

Drinking identity-how much individuals view themselves as drinkers-is a promising cognitive factor that predicts problem drinking. Implicit and explicit measures of drinking identity have been developed (the former assesses more reflexive/automatic cognitive processes; the latter more reflective/controlled cognitive processes): each predicts unique variance in alcohol consumption and problems. However, implicit and explicit identity's utility and uniqueness as predictors relative to cognitive factors important for problem drinking screening and intervention has not been evaluated. Thus, the current study evaluated implicit and explicit drinking identity as predictors of consumption and problems over time. Baseline measures of drinking identity, social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking motives were evaluated as predictors of consumption and problems (evaluated every 3 months over 2 academic years) in a sample of 506 students (57% female) in their first or second year of college. Results found that baseline identity measures predicted unique variance in consumption and problems over time. Further, when compared to each set of cognitive factors, the identity measures predicted unique variance in consumption and problems over time. Findings were more robust for explicit versus implicit identity and in models that did not control for baseline drinking. Drinking identity appears to be a unique predictor of problem drinking relative to social norms, alcohol expectancies, and drinking motives. Intervention and theory could benefit from including and considering drinking identity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation of biogeographical factors in the native range to improve the success of biological control agents in the introduced range

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biogeographical factors associated with Arundo donax in its native range were evaluated in reference to its key herbivore, an armored scale, Rhizaspidiotus donacis. Climate modeling from location data in Spain and France accurately predicted the native range of the scale in the warmer, drier parts o...

Fine-Tuning Dropout Prediction through Discriminant Analysis: The Ethnic Factor.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkinson, L. David; Frazer, Linda H.

In the 1988-89 school year, the Austin (Texas) Independent School District's Office of Research and Evaluation undertook a new dropout research project. Part of this initiative, termed Project GRAD, attempted to develop a statistical equation by which one could predict which students were likely to drop out. If reliable predictive information…

Examining construct and predictive validity of the Health-IT Usability Evaluation Scale: confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling results

PubMed Central

Yen, Po-Yin; Sousa, Karen H; Bakken, Suzanne

2014-01-01

Background In a previous study, we developed the Health Information Technology Usability Evaluation Scale (Health-ITUES), which is designed to support customization at the item level. Such customization matches the specific tasks/expectations of a health IT system while retaining comparability at the construct level, and provides evidence of its factorial validity and internal consistency reliability through exploratory factor analysis. Objective In this study, we advanced the development of Health-ITUES to examine its construct validity and predictive validity. Methods The health IT system studied was a web-based communication system that supported nurse staffing and scheduling. Using Health-ITUES, we conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate users’ perception toward the web-based communication system after system implementation. We examined Health-ITUES's construct validity through first and second order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and its predictive validity via structural equation modeling (SEM). Results The sample comprised 541 staff nurses in two healthcare organizations. The CFA (n=165) showed that a general usability factor accounted for 78.1%, 93.4%, 51.0%, and 39.9% of the explained variance in ‘Quality of Work Life’, ‘Perceived Usefulness’, ‘Perceived Ease of Use’, and ‘User Control’, respectively. The SEM (n=541) supported the predictive validity of Health-ITUES, explaining 64% of the variance in intention for system use. Conclusions The results of CFA and SEM provide additional evidence for the construct and predictive validity of Health-ITUES. The customizability of Health-ITUES has the potential to support comparisons at the construct level, while allowing variation at the item level. We also illustrate application of Health-ITUES across stages of system development. PMID:24567081

High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

PubMed

Trimpou, P; Odén, A; Simonsson, T; Wilhelmsen, L; Landin-Wilhelmsen, K

2011-05-01

Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were evaluated in 1,396 men and women for a period of 20 years. Serum total cholesterol was found to be an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term risk factors for osteoporotic fracture. A population random sample of men and women aged 25-64 years (the Gothenburg WHO MONICA project, N = 1,396, 53% women) was studied prospectively. The 1985 baseline examination recorded physical activity at work and during leisure time, psychological stress, smoking habits, coffee consumption, BMI, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure, total, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fibrinogen. Osteoporotic fractures over a period of 20 years were retrieved from the Gothenburg hospital registers. Poisson regression was used to analyze the predictive power for osteoporotic fracture of each risk factor. A total number of 258 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 143 participants (10.2%). As expected, we found that previous fracture, smoking, coffee consumption, and lower BMI each increase the risk for osteoporotic fracture independently of age and sex. More unexpectedly, we found that the gradient of risk of serum total cholesterol to predict osteoporotic fracture significantly increases over time (p = 0.0377). Serum total cholesterol is an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

Stress and anger as contextual factors and preexisting cognitive schemas: predicting parental child maltreatment risk.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Richardson, Michael J

2007-11-01

Progress in the child maltreatment field depends on refinements in leading models. This study examines aspects of social information processing theory (Milner, 2000) in predicting physical maltreatment risk in a community sample. Consistent with this theory, selected preexisting schema (external locus-of-control orientation, inappropriate developmental expectations, low empathic perspective-taking ability, and low perceived attachment relationship to child) were expected to predict child abuse risk beyond contextual factors (parenting stress and anger expression). Based on 115 parents' self-report, results from this study support cognitive factors that predict abuse risk (with locus of control, perceived attachment, or empathy predicting different abuse risk measures, but not developmental expectations), although the broad contextual factors involving negative affectivity and stress were consistent predictors across abuse risk markers. Findings are discussed with regard to implications for future model evaluations, with indications the model may apply to other forms of maltreatment, such as psychological maltreatment or neglect.

Matrix factorization-based data fusion for gene function prediction in baker's yeast and slime mold.

PubMed

Zitnik, Marinka; Zupan, Blaž

2014-01-01

The development of effective methods for the characterization of gene functions that are able to combine diverse data sources in a sound and easily-extendible way is an important goal in computational biology. We have previously developed a general matrix factorization-based data fusion approach for gene function prediction. In this manuscript, we show that this data fusion approach can be applied to gene function prediction and that it can fuse various heterogeneous data sources, such as gene expression profiles, known protein annotations, interaction and literature data. The fusion is achieved by simultaneous matrix tri-factorization that shares matrix factors between sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by evaluating its performance on predicting ontological annotations in slime mold D. discoideum and on recognizing proteins of baker's yeast S. cerevisiae that participate in the ribosome or are located in the cell membrane. Our approach achieves predictive performance comparable to that of the state-of-the-art kernel-based data fusion, but requires fewer data preprocessing steps.

Predicting knee replacement damage in a simulator machine using a computational model with a consistent wear factor.

PubMed

Zhao, Dong; Sakoda, Hideyuki; Sawyer, W Gregory; Banks, Scott A; Fregly, Benjamin J

2008-02-01

Wear of ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene remains a primary factor limiting the longevity of total knee replacements (TKRs). However, wear testing on a simulator machine is time consuming and expensive, making it impractical for iterative design purposes. The objectives of this paper were first, to evaluate whether a computational model using a wear factor consistent with the TKR material pair can predict accurate TKR damage measured in a simulator machine, and second, to investigate how choice of surface evolution method (fixed or variable step) and material model (linear or nonlinear) affect the prediction. An iterative computational damage model was constructed for a commercial knee implant in an AMTI simulator machine. The damage model combined a dynamic contact model with a surface evolution model to predict how wear plus creep progressively alter tibial insert geometry over multiple simulations. The computational framework was validated by predicting wear in a cylinder-on-plate system for which an analytical solution was derived. The implant damage model was evaluated for 5 million cycles of simulated gait using damage measurements made on the same implant in an AMTI machine. Using a pin-on-plate wear factor for the same material pair as the implant, the model predicted tibial insert wear volume to within 2% error and damage depths and areas to within 18% and 10% error, respectively. Choice of material model had little influence, while inclusion of surface evolution affected damage depth and area but not wear volume predictions. Surface evolution method was important only during the initial cycles, where variable step was needed to capture rapid geometry changes due to the creep. Overall, our results indicate that accurate TKR damage predictions can be made with a computational model using a constant wear factor obtained from pin-on-plate tests for the same material pair, and furthermore, that surface evolution method matters only during the initial "break in" period of the simulation.

Treatment-Related Predictive and Prognostic Factors in Trimodality Approach in Stage IIIA/N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Jeremić, Branislav; Casas, Francesc; Dubinsky, Pavol; Gomez-Caamano, Antonio; Čihorić, Nikola; Videtic, Gregory; Igrutinovic, Ivan

2018-01-01

While there are no established pretreatment predictive and prognostic factors in patients with stage IIIA/pN2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indicating a benefit to surgery as a part of trimodality approach, little is known about treatment-related predictive and prognostic factors in this setting. A literature search was conducted to identify possible treatment-related predictive and prognostic factors for patients for whom trimodality approach was reported on. Overall survival was the primary endpoint of this study. Of 30 identified studies, there were two phase II studies, 5 "prospective" studies, and 23 retrospective studies. No study was found which specifically looked at treatment-related predictive factors of improved outcomes in trimodality treatment. Of potential treatment-related prognostic factors, the least frequently analyzed factors among 30 available studies were overall pathologic stage after preoperative treatment and UICC downstaging. Evaluation of treatment response before surgery and by pathologic tumor stage after induction therapy were analyzed in slightly more than 40% of studies and found not to influence survival. More frequently studied factors-resection status, degree of tumor regression, and pathologic nodal stage after induction therapy as well as the most frequently studied factor, the treatment (in almost 75% studies)-showed no discernible impact on survival, due to conflicting results. Currently, it is impossible to identify any treatment-related predictive or prognostic factors for selecting surgery in the treatment of patients with stage IIIA/pN2 NSCLC.

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Acute Postoperative Pain Levels After Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repair.

PubMed

Cuff, Derek J; O'Brien, Kathleen C; Pupello, Derek R; Santoni, Brandon G

2016-07-01

To evaluate multiple preoperative and operative factors that may be predictive of and correlate with acute postoperative pain levels after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. One hundred eighty-one patients underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff surgery along with subacromial decompression and met the inclusion criteria for this study. Postoperative visual analog scale (VAS) scores were obtained on postoperative days 1, 7, and 90. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to correlate postoperative VAS scores with multiple independent factors, including preoperative subjective pain tolerance, preoperative VAS score, preoperative narcotic use, sex, smoking status, number of suture anchors used, tear size, single- or double-row repair, and patient age. Preoperative subjective pain tolerance, notably those patients rating themselves as having an extremely high pain tolerance, was the most significant predictor of high VAS pain scores on both postoperative day 1 (P = .0001) and postoperative day 7 (P < .0001). Preoperative narcotic use was also significantly predictive (P = .010) of high pain scores on postoperative day 1 and day 7 (P = .019), along with nonsmokers (P = .008) and younger patients (P = .006) being predictive on day 7. There were no patient factors that were predictive of VAS scores 3 months postoperatively (P = .567). Preoperative subjective pain tolerance, notably those patients rating themselves as having an extremely high pain tolerance, was the strongest factor predicting high acute pain levels after arthroscopic rotator cuff surgery. Preoperative narcotic use, smokers, and younger patients were also predictive of higher pain levels during the first postoperative week. Level IV, prognostic case series. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Positive predictors of quality of life for postpartum mothers with a history of childhood maltreatment.

PubMed

Irwin, Jessica L; Beeghly, Marjorie; Rosenblum, Katherine L; Muzik, Maria

2016-12-01

The postpartum period brings a host of biopsychosocial, familial, and economic changes, which may be challenging for new mothers, especially those with trauma histories. Trauma-exposed women are at heightened risk for psychiatric symptomatology and reduced quality of life. The current study sought to evaluate whether a set of hypothesized promotive factors assessed during the first 18 months postpartum (positive parenting, family cohesion, and maternal resilience) are associated with life satisfaction in this population, after controlling for income and postpartum psychiatric symptoms. Analyses were based on data collected for 266 mother-infant dyads from a longitudinal cohort study, Maternal Anxiety during the Childbearing Years (MACY), of women oversampled for childhood maltreatment history. Hierarchical linear regression was used to evaluate the study hypotheses. Consistent with prior work, greater postpartum psychiatric symptoms and less income predicted poor perceptions of life quality. In hierarchical regressions controlling for income and psychiatric symptoms, positive parenting and family cohesion predicted unique variance in mothers' positive perceptions of life quality, and resilience was predictive beyond all other factors. Factors from multiple levels of analysis (maternal, dyadic, and familial) may serve as promotive factors predicting positive perceptions of life quality among women with childhood trauma histories, even those struggling with high levels of psychiatric or economic distress.

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

Prediction of the intensity and diversity of day-to-day activities among people with schizophrenia using parameters obtained during acute hospitalization.

PubMed

Lipskaya-Velikovsky, Lena; Jarus, Tal; Kotler, Moshe

2017-06-01

Participation in day-to-day activities of people with schizophrenia is restricted, causing concern to them, their families, service providers and the communities at large. Participation is a significant component of health and recovery; however, factors predicting participation are still not well established. This study examines whether the parameters obtained during acute hospitalization can predict the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. In-patients with chronic schizophrenia (N = 104) were enrolled into the study and assessed for cognitive functioning, functional capacity in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and symptoms. Six months after discharge, the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities were evaluated (N = 70). Multiple correlations were found between parameters obtained during hospitalization and participation diversity, but not participation intensity. The model that is better suited to the prediction of participation diversity contains cognitive ability of construction, negative symptoms and number of previous hospitalizations. The total explained variance is 37.8% (F 3,66  =   14.99, p < 0.001). This study provides evidence for ecological validity of the in-patient evaluation process for the prediction of participation diversity in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Participation diversity is best predicted through a set of factors reflecting personal and environmental indicators. Implications for rehabilitation Results of in-patient evaluations can predict the diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Higher prediction of participation diversity is obtained using a holistic evaluation model that includes assessments for cognitive abilities, negative symptoms severity and number of hospitalizations.

Validation of a nomogram in the prediction of local recurrence risks after conserving surgery for Asian women with ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

PubMed

Wang, F; Li, H; Tan, P H; Chua, E T; Yeo, R M C; Lim, F L W T; Kim, S W; Tan, D Y H; Wong, F Y

2014-11-01

At our centre, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) was commonly treated with breast-conservation therapy (BCT). Local recurrence after BCT is a major concern. The aims of our study were to review the outcomes of DCIS treatment in our patients and to evaluate a nomogram from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre (MSKCC) for predicting ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) in our Asian population. Chart reviews of 716 patients with pure DCIS treated from 1992 to 2011 were carried out. Univariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the effects of the 10 prognostic factors of the MSKCC nomogram on IBTR. We constructed a separate National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS) nomogram based on multivariable Cox regression via reduced model selection by applying the stopping rule of Akaike's information criterion to predict IBTR-free survival. The abilities of the NCCS nomogram and the MSKCC nomogram to predict IBTR of individual patients were evaluated with bootstrapping of 200 sets of resamples and the NCCS dataset, respectively. Harrell's c-index was calculated for each nomogram to evaluate the concordance between predicted and observed responses of individual subjects. Study patients were followed up for a median of 70 months. Over 95% of patients received adjuvant radiotherapy. The 5 and 10 year actuarial IBTR-free survival rates for the cohort were 95.5 and 92.6%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors for IBTR included use of adjuvant endocrine therapy, presence of comedonecrosis and younger age at diagnosis. These factors formed the basis of the NCCS nomogram, which had a similar c-index (NCCS: 0.696; MSKCC: 0.673) compared with the MSKCC nomogram. The MSKCC nomogram was validated in an Asian population. A simpler NCCS nomogram using a different combination of fewer prognostic factors may be sufficient for the prediction of IBTR in Asians, but requires external validation to compare for relative performance. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

External evaluation of population pharmacokinetic models of vancomycin in neonates: the transferability of published models to different clinical settings

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Kaguelidou, Florentia; Biran, Valérie; Zhang, Daolun; Allegaert, Karel; Capparelli, Edmund V; Holford, Nick; Kimura, Toshimi; Lo, Yoke-Lin; Peris, José-Esteban; Thomson, Alison; Anker, John N; Fakhoury, May; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

2013-01-01

Aims Vancomycin is one of the most evaluated antibiotics in neonates using modeling and simulation approaches. However no clear consensus on optimal dosing has been achieved. The objective of the present study was to perform an external evaluation of published models, in order to test their predictive performances in an independent dataset and to identify the possible study-related factors influencing the transferability of pharmacokinetic models to different clinical settings. Method Published neonatal vancomycin pharmacokinetic models were screened from the literature. The predictive performance of six models was evaluated using an independent dataset (112 concentrations from 78 neonates). The evaluation procedures used simulation-based diagnostics [visual predictive check (VPC) and normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE)]. Results Differences in predictive performances of models for vancomycin pharmacokinetics in neonates were found. The mean of NPDE for six evaluated models were 1.35, −0.22, −0.36, 0.24, 0.66 and 0.48, respectively. These differences were explained, at least partly, by taking into account the method used to measure serum creatinine concentrations. The adult conversion factor of 1.3 (enzymatic to Jaffé) was tested with an improvement in the VPC and NPDE, but it still needs to be evaluated and validated in neonates. Differences were also identified between analytical methods for vancomycin. Conclusion The importance of analytical techniques for serum creatinine concentrations and vancomycin as predictors of vancomycin concentrations in neonates have been confirmed. Dosage individualization of vancomycin in neonates should consider not only patients' characteristics and clinical conditions, but also the methods used to measure serum creatinine and vancomycin. PMID:23148919

Prediction of Balance Compensation After Vestibular Schwannoma Surgery.

PubMed

Parietti-Winkler, Cécile; Lion, Alexis; Frère, Julien; Perrin, Philippe P; Beurton, Renaud; Gauchard, Gérome C

2016-06-01

Background Balance compensation after vestibular schwannoma (VS) surgery is under the influence of specific preoperative patient and tumor characteristics. Objective To prospectively identify potential prognostic factors for balance recovery, we compared the respective influence of these preoperative characteristics on balance compensation after VS surgery. Methods In 50 patients scheduled for VS surgical ablation, we measured postural control before surgery (BS), 8 (AS8) days after, and 90 (AS90) days after surgery. Based on factors found previously in the literature, we evaluated age, body mass index and preoperative physical activity (PA), tumor grade, vestibular status, and preference for visual cues to control balance as potential prognostic factors using stepwise multiple regression models. Results An asymmetric vestibular function was the sole significant explanatory factor for impaired balance performance BS, whereas the preoperative PA alone significantly contributed to higher performance at AS8. An evaluation of patients' balance recovery over time showed that PA and vestibular status were the 2 significant predictive factors for short-term postural compensation (BS to AS8), whereas none of these preoperative factors was significantly predictive for medium-term postoperative postural recovery (AS8 to AS90). Conclusions We identified specific preoperative patient and vestibular function characteristics that may predict postoperative balance recovery after VS surgery. Better preoperative characterization of these factors in each patient could inform more personalized presurgical and postsurgical management, leading to a better, more rapid balance recovery, earlier return to normal daily activities and work, improved quality of life, and reduced medical and societal costs. © The Author(s) 2015.

Predictors and Patterns of Local, Regional, and Distant Failure in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Vulva.

PubMed

Bogani, Giorgio; Cromi, Antonella; Serati, Maurizio; Uccella, Stefano; Donato, Violante Di; Casarin, Jvan; Naro, Edoardo Di; Ghezzi, Fabio

2017-06-01

To identify factors predicting for recurrence in vulvar cancer patients undergoing surgical treatment. We retrospectively evaluated data of consecutive patients with squamous cell vulvar cancer treated between January 1, 1990 and December 31, 2013. Basic descriptive statistics and multivariable analysis were used to design predicting models influencing outcomes. Five-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Cox model. The study included 101 patients affected by vulvar cancer: 64 (63%) stage I, 12 (12%) stage II, 20 (20%) stage III, and 5 (5%) stage IV. After a mean (SD) follow-up of 37.6 (22.1) months, 21 (21%) recurrences occurred. Local, regional, and distant failures were recorded in 14 (14%), 6 (6%), and 3 (3%) patients, respectively. Five-year DFS and OS were 77% and 82%, respectively. At multivariate analysis only stromal invasion >2 mm (hazard ratio: 4.9 [95% confidence interval, 1.17-21.1]; P=0.04) and extracapsular lymph node involvement (hazard ratio: 9.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.17-69.5); P=0.03) correlated with worse DFS, although no factor independently correlated with OS. Looking at factors influencing local and regional failure, we observed that stromal invasion >2 mm was the only factor predicting for local recurrence, whereas lymph node extracapsular involvement predicted for regional recurrence. Stromal invasion >2 mm and lymph node extracapsular spread are the most important factors predicting for local and regional failure, respectively. Studies evaluating the effectiveness of adjuvant treatment in high-risk patients are warranted.

A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms.

PubMed

Lai, Fu-Jou; Chang, Hong-Tsun; Huang, Yueh-Min; Wu, Wei-Sheng

2014-01-01

Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to measure the performance of new algorithms developed in the future, thus expedite progress in this research field.

Improved guidelines for estimating the Highway safety manual calibration factors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Crash prediction models can be used to predict the number of crashes and evaluate roadway safety. Part C of the first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides safety performance functions (SPFs). The HSM addendum that includes freeway and ...

Factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus: decision-curve analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, M; Nagao, Y; Mahbub, M H; Tanabe, T; Tanizawa, Y

2018-04-29

To identify factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus, using decision-curve analysis. A retrospective cohort study was performed. The participants were 123 Japanese women with gestational diabetes who underwent 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests at 8-12 weeks after delivery. They were divided into a glucose intolerance and a normal glucose tolerance group based on postpartum oral glucose tolerance test results. Analysis of the pregnancy oral glucose tolerance test results showed predictive factors for postpartum glucose intolerance. We also evaluated the clinical usefulness of the prediction model based on decision-curve analysis. Of 123 women, 78 (63.4%) had normoglycaemia and 45 (36.6%) had glucose intolerance. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin and summation of glucose levels, assessed during pregnancy oral glucose tolerance tests (total glucose), to be independent risk factors for postpartum glucose intolerance. Evaluating the regression models, the best discrimination (area under the curve 0.725) was obtained using the basic model (i.e. age, family history of diabetes, BMI ≥25 kg/m 2 and use of insulin during pregnancy) plus insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin <1.1. Decision-curve analysis showed that combining insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin <1.1 with basic clinical information resulted in superior net benefits for prediction of postpartum glucose intolerance. Insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin calculated using oral glucose tolerance test results during pregnancy is potentially useful for predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

Predicting Time to Hospital Discharge for Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Hintz, Susan R.; Bann, Carla M.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Cotten, C. Michael; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2010-01-01

As extremely preterm infant mortality rates have decreased, concerns regarding resource utilization have intensified. Accurate models to predict time to hospital discharge could aid in resource planning, family counseling, and perhaps stimulate quality improvement initiatives. Objectives For infants <27 weeks estimated gestational age (EGA), to develop, validate and compare several models to predict time to hospital discharge based on time-dependent covariates, and based on the presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective analysis of infants <27 weeks EGA, born 7/2002-12/2005 and surviving to discharge from a NICHD Neonatal Research Network site. Time to discharge was modeled as continuous (postmenstrual age at discharge, PMAD), and categorical variables (“Early” and “Late” discharge). Three linear and logistic regression models with time-dependent covariate inclusion were developed (perinatal factors only, perinatal+early neonatal factors, perinatal+early+later factors). Models for Early and Late discharge using the cumulative presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors were also evaluated. Predictive capabilities were compared using coefficient of determination (R2) for linear models, and AUC of ROC curve for logistic models. Results Data from 2254 infants were included. Prediction of PMAD was poor, with only 38% of variation explained by linear models. However, models incorporating later clinical characteristics were more accurate in predicting “Early” or “Late” discharge (full models: AUC 0.76-0.83 vs. perinatal factor models: AUC 0.56-0.69). In simplified key risk factors models, predicted probabilities for Early and Late discharge compared favorably with observed rates. Furthermore, the AUC (0.75-0.77) were similar to those of models including the full factor set. Conclusions Prediction of Early or Late discharge is poor if only perinatal factors are considered, but improves substantially with knowledge of later-occurring morbidities. Prediction using a few key risk factors is comparable to full models, and may offer a clinically applicable strategy. PMID:20008430

High prevalence of low bone mineral density in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the setting of a peripheral Dutch hospital.

PubMed

Van Schaik, Fiona D M; Verhagen, Marc A M T; Siersema, Peter D; Oldenburg, Bas

2008-09-01

Osteopenia and osteoporosis are frequently encountered in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). Our aims were to evaluate the actual practice of screening for low bone mineral density (BMD) by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), to determine the prevalence of low BMD and to investigate the risk factors associated with a low BMD in the IBD population of a regional Dutch hospital. A retrospective chart review was performed in 474 patients (259 with ulcerative colitis, 210 with Crohn's disease and 5 with indeterminate colitis). DEXA results and potential predictive factors of low BMD were documented. Predictive factors of low BMD were assessed by logistic regression. DEXA was performed in 168 IBD patients (35.4%). A low BMD (T-score<-1) was present in 64.3%. Osteoporosis (T-score<-2.5) was found in 23.8%. Low BMI, older age at the moment of diagnosis and male gender were found to be predictive factors of low BMD. For patients with osteoporosis, disease duration was an additional predictive factor. After subgroup analysis predictive factors were found to be the same in patients with Crohn's disease. The prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in IBD patients in a regional centre is as high as the prevalence rates reported from tertiary referral centres. A low BMI, an older age at the moment of diagnosis and male gender were predictive factors of low BMD. Prediction of osteoporosis and osteopenia using risk factors identified in this and previous studies is presently not feasible.

Protein Structure Prediction with Evolutionary Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, W.E.; Krasnogor, N.; Pelta, D.A.

1999-02-08

Evolutionary algorithms have been successfully applied to a variety of molecular structure prediction problems. In this paper we reconsider the design of genetic algorithms that have been applied to a simple protein structure prediction problem. Our analysis considers the impact of several algorithmic factors for this problem: the confirmational representation, the energy formulation and the way in which infeasible conformations are penalized, Further we empirically evaluated the impact of these factors on a small set of polymer sequences. Our analysis leads to specific recommendations for both GAs as well as other heuristic methods for solving PSP on the HP model.

Probabilistic Usage of the Multi-Factor Interaction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2008-01-01

A Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to predict the insulating foam mass expulsion during the ascending of a space vehicle. The exponents in the MFIM are evaluated by an available approach which consists of least squares and an optimization algorithm. These results were subsequently used to probabilistically evaluate the effects of the uncertainties in each participating factor in the mass expulsion. The probabilistic results show that the surface temperature dominates at high probabilities and the pressure which causes the mass expulsion at low probabil

Evaluation of non-negative matrix factorization of grey matter in age prediction.

PubMed

Varikuti, Deepthi P; Genon, Sarah; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Schwender, Holger; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Patil, Kaustubh R; Jockwitz, Christiane; Caspers, Svenja; Moebus, Susanne; Amunts, Katrin; Davatzikos, Christos; Eickhoff, Simon B

2018-06-01

The relationship between grey matter volume (GMV) patterns and age can be captured by multivariate pattern analysis, allowing prediction of individuals' age based on structural imaging. Raw data, voxel-wise GMV and non-sparse factorization (with Principal Component Analysis, PCA) show good performance but do not promote relatively localized brain components for post-hoc examinations. Here we evaluated a non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF) approach to provide a reduced, but also interpretable representation of GMV data in age prediction frameworks in healthy and clinical populations. This examination was performed using three datasets: a multi-site cohort of life-span healthy adults, a single site cohort of older adults and clinical samples from the ADNI dataset with healthy subjects, participants with Mild Cognitive Impairment and patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) subsamples. T1-weighted images were preprocessed with VBM8 standard settings to compute GMV values after normalization, segmentation and modulation for non-linear transformations only. Non-negative matrix factorization was computed on the GM voxel-wise values for a range of granularities (50-690 components) and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression were used for age prediction. First, we compared the performance of our data compression procedure (i.e., NNMF) to various other approaches (i.e., uncompressed VBM data, PCA-based factorization and parcellation-based compression). We then investigated the impact of the granularity on the accuracy of age prediction, as well as the transferability of the factorization and model generalization across datasets. We finally validated our framework by examining age prediction in ADNI samples. Our results showed that our framework favorably compares with other approaches. They also demonstrated that the NNMF based factorization derived from one dataset could be efficiently applied to compress VBM data of another dataset and that granularities between 300 and 500 components give an optimal representation for age prediction. In addition to the good performance in healthy subjects our framework provided relatively localized brain regions as the features contributing to the prediction, thereby offering further insights into structural changes due to brain aging. Finally, our validation in clinical populations showed that our framework is sensitive to deviance from normal structural variations in pathological aging. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and algorithms for chlamydial and gonococcal cervical infections in women attending family planning clinics in Thailand.

PubMed

Rugpao, Sungwal; Rungruengthanakit, Kittipong; Werawatanakul, Yuthapong; Sinchai, Wanida; Ruengkris, Tosaporn; Lamlertkittikul, Surachai; Pinjareon, Sutham; Koonlertkit, Sompong; Limtrakul, Aram; Sriplienchan, Somchai; Wongthanee, Antika; Sirirojn, Bangorn; Morrison, Charles S; Celentano, David D

2010-02-01

To identify risk factors associated with and evaluate algorithms for predicting Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) cervical infections in women attending family planning clinics in Thailand. Eligible women were recruited from family planning clinics from all regions in Thailand. The women were followed at 3-month intervals for 15-24 months. At each visit, the women were interviewed for interval sexually transmitted infection (STI) history in the past 3 months, recent sexual behavior, and contraceptive use. Pelvic examinations were performed and endocervical specimens were collected to test for CT and NG using polymerase chain reaction. Factors associated with incident CT/NG cervical infections in multivariate analyses included region of country other than the north, age

Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

PubMed

Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

2013-09-01

Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Psychological Considerations in the Assessment and Treatment of Pain in Neurorehabilitation and Psychological Factors Predictive of Therapeutic Response: Evidence and Recommendations from the Italian Consensus Conference on Pain in Neurorehabilitation

PubMed Central

Castelnuovo, Gianluca; Giusti, Emanuele M.; Manzoni, Gian Mauro; Saviola, Donatella; Gatti, Arianna; Gabrielli, Samantha; Lacerenza, Marco; Pietrabissa, Giada; Cattivelli, Roberto; Spatola, Chiara A. M.; Corti, Stefania; Novelli, Margherita; Villa, Valentina; Cottini, Andrea; Lai, Carlo; Pagnini, Francesco; Castelli, Lorys; Tavola, Mario; Torta, Riccardo; Arreghini, Marco; Zanini, Loredana; Brunani, Amelia; Capodaglio, Paolo; D'Aniello, Guido E.; Scarpina, Federica; Brioschi, Andrea; Priano, Lorenzo; Mauro, Alessandro; Riva, Giuseppe; Repetto, Claudia; Regalia, Camillo; Molinari, Enrico; Notaro, Paolo; Paolucci, Stefano; Sandrini, Giorgio; Simpson, Susan G.; Wiederhold, Brenda; Tamburin, Stefano

2016-01-01

Background: In order to provide effective care to patients suffering from chronic pain secondary to neurological diseases, health professionals must appraise the role of the psychosocial factors in the genesis and maintenance of this condition whilst considering how emotions and cognitions influence the course of treatment. Furthermore, it is important not only to recognize the psychological reactions to pain that are common to the various conditions, but also to evaluate how these syndromes differ with regards to the psychological factors that may be involved. As an extensive evaluation of these factors is still lacking, the Italian Consensus Conference on Pain in Neurorehabilitation (ICCPN) aimed to collate the evidence available across these topics. Objectives: To determine the psychological factors which are associated with or predictive of pain secondary to neurological conditions and to assess the influence of these aspects on the outcome of neurorehabilitation. Methods: Two reviews were performed. In the first, a PUBMED search of the studies assessing the association between psychological factors and pain or the predictive value of these aspects with respect to chronic pain was conducted. The included papers were then rated with regards to their methodological quality and recommendations were made accordingly. In the second study, the same methodology was used to collect the available evidence on the predictive role of psychological factors on the therapeutic response to pain treatments in the setting of neurorehabilitation. Results: The first literature search identified 1170 results and the final database included 189 articles. Factors such as depression, anxiety, pain catastrophizing, coping strategies, and cognitive functions were found to be associated with pain across the various conditions. However, there are differences between chronic musculoskeletal pain, migraine, neuropathy, and conditions associated with complex disability with regards to the psychological aspects that are involved. The second PUBMED search yielded 252 studies, which were all evaluated. Anxiety, depression, pain catastrophizing, coping strategies, and pain beliefs were found to be associated to different degrees with the outcomes of multidisciplinary programs, surgery, physical therapies, and psychological interventions. Finally, sense of presence was found to be related to the effectiveness of virtual reality as a distraction tool. Conclusions: Several psychological factors are associated with pain secondary to neurological conditions and should be acknowledged and addressed in order to effectively treat this condition. These factors also predict the therapeutic response to the neurorehabilitative interventions. PMID:27148104

Can theory predict the process of suicide on entry to prison? Predicting dynamic risk factors for suicide ideation in a high-risk prison population.

PubMed

Slade, Karen; Edelman, Robert

2014-01-01

Each year approximately 110,000 people are imprisoned in England and Wales and new prisoners remain one of the highest risk groups for suicide across the world. The reduction of suicide in prisoners remains difficult as assessments and interventions tend to rely on static risk factors with few theoretical or integrated models yet evaluated. To identify the dynamic factors that contribute to suicide ideation in this population based on Williams and Pollock's (2001) Cry of Pain (CoP) model. New arrivals (N = 198) into prison were asked to complete measures derived from the CoP model plus clinical and prison-specific factors. It was hypothesized that the factors of the CoP model would be predictive of suicide ideation. Support was provided for the defeat and entrapment aspects of the CoP model with previous self-harm, repeated times in prison, and suicide-permissive cognitions also key in predicting suicide ideation for prisoners on entry to prison. An integrated and dynamic model was developed that has utility in predicting suicide in early-stage prisoners. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed along with recommendations for future research.

MATRIX FACTORIZATION-BASED DATA FUSION FOR GENE FUNCTION PREDICTION IN BAKER’S YEAST AND SLIME MOLD

PubMed Central

ŽITNIK, MARINKA; ZUPAN, BLAŽ

2014-01-01

The development of effective methods for the characterization of gene functions that are able to combine diverse data sources in a sound and easily-extendible way is an important goal in computational biology. We have previously developed a general matrix factorization-based data fusion approach for gene function prediction. In this manuscript, we show that this data fusion approach can be applied to gene function prediction and that it can fuse various heterogeneous data sources, such as gene expression profiles, known protein annotations, interaction and literature data. The fusion is achieved by simultaneous matrix tri-factorization that shares matrix factors between sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach by evaluating its performance on predicting ontological annotations in slime mold D. discoideum and on recognizing proteins of baker’s yeast S. cerevisiae that participate in the ribosome or are located in the cell membrane. Our approach achieves predictive performance comparable to that of the state-of-the-art kernel-based data fusion, but requires fewer data preprocessing steps. PMID:24297565

Endometrial cancer risk prediction including serum-based biomarkers: results from the EPIC cohort.

PubMed

Fortner, Renée T; Hüsing, Anika; Kühn, Tilman; Konar, Meric; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Hansen, Louise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Severi, Gianluca; Fournier, Agnès; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Benetou, Vasiliki; Orfanos, Philippos; Masala, Giovanna; Agnoli, Claudia; Mattiello, Amalia; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Peeters, Petra H M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Gram, Inger T; Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Quirós, J Ramón; Maria Huerta, José; Ardanaz, Eva; Larrañaga, Nerea; Lujan-Barroso, Leila; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Butt, Salma Tunå; Borgquist, Signe; Idahl, Annika; Lundin, Eva; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Allen, Naomi E; Rinaldi, Sabina; Dossus, Laure; Gunter, Marc; Merritt, Melissa A; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Riboli, Elio; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-03-15

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination. © 2016 UICC.

Evaluating the vulnerability of Maine forests to wind damage

Treesearch

Thomas E. Perry; Jeremy S. Wilson

2010-01-01

Numerous factors, some of which cannot be controlled, are continually interacting with the forest resource, introducing risk to management, and making consistent predictable management outcomes uncertain. Included in these factors are threats or hazards such as windstorms and wildfire. Factors influencing the probability (risk) of windthrow or windsnap occurring can be...

Job compensable factors and factor weights derived from job analysis data.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Chang, Tin-Chang; Hsia, Ping-Ling; Song, Jen-Chieh

2007-06-01

Government data on 1,039 job titles in Taiwan were analyzed to assess possible relationships between job attributes and compensation. For each job title, 79 specific variables in six major classes (required education and experience, aptitude, interest, work temperament, physical demands, task environment) were coded to derive the statistical predictors of wage for managers, professionals, technical, clerical, service, farm, craft, operatives, and other workers. Of the 79 variables, only 23 significantly related to pay rate were subjected to a factor and multiple regression analysis for predicting monthly wages. Given the heterogeneous nature of collected job titles, a 4-factor solution (occupational knowledge and skills, human relations skills, work schedule hardships, physical hardships) explaining 43.8% of the total variance but predicting only 23.7% of the monthly pay rate was derived. On the other hand, multiple regression with 9 job analysis items (required education, professional training, professional certificate, professional experience, coordinating, leadership and directing, demand on hearing, proportion of shift working indoors, outdoors and others, rotating shift) better predicted pay and explained 32.5% of the variance. A direct comparison of factors and subfactors of job evaluation plans indicated mental effort and responsibility (accountability) had not been measured with the current job analysis data. Cross-validation of job evaluation factors and ratings with the wage rates is required to calibrate both.

Do dimensional psychopathology measures relate to creative achievement or divergent thinking?

PubMed Central

Zabelina, Darya L.; Condon, David; Beeman, Mark

2014-01-01

Previous research provides disparate accounts of the putative association between creativity and psychopathology, including schizotypy, psychoticism, hypomania, bipolar disorder, ADHD, and autism spectrum disorders. To examine these association, healthy, non-clinical participants completed several psychopathology-spectrum measures, often postulated to associate with creativity: the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, the Psychoticism scale, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5, the Hypomanic Personality Scale, the Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Autism-Spectrum Quotient. The goal of Study 1 was to evaluate the factor structure of these dimensional psychopathology measures and, in particular, to evaluate the case for a strong general factor(s). None of the factor solutions between 1 and 10 factors provided a strong fit with the data based on the most commonly used metrics. The goal of Study 2 was to determine whether these psychopathology scales predict, independently, two measures of creativity: 1. a measure of participants' real-world creative achievements, and 2. divergent thinking, a laboratory measure of creative cognition. After controlling for academic achievement, psychoticism and hypomania reliably predicted real-world creative achievement and divergent thinking scored with the consensual assessment technique. None of the psychopathology-spectrum scales reliably predicted divergent thinking scored with the manual scoring method. Implications for the potential links between several putative creative processes and risk factors for psychopathology are discussed. PMID:25278919

Do dimensional psychopathology measures relate to creative achievement or divergent thinking?

PubMed

Zabelina, Darya L; Condon, David; Beeman, Mark

2014-01-01

Previous research provides disparate accounts of the putative association between creativity and psychopathology, including schizotypy, psychoticism, hypomania, bipolar disorder, ADHD, and autism spectrum disorders. To examine these association, healthy, non-clinical participants completed several psychopathology-spectrum measures, often postulated to associate with creativity: the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, the Psychoticism scale, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5, the Hypomanic Personality Scale, the Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Autism-Spectrum Quotient. The goal of Study 1 was to evaluate the factor structure of these dimensional psychopathology measures and, in particular, to evaluate the case for a strong general factor(s). None of the factor solutions between 1 and 10 factors provided a strong fit with the data based on the most commonly used metrics. The goal of Study 2 was to determine whether these psychopathology scales predict, independently, two measures of creativity: 1. a measure of participants' real-world creative achievements, and 2. divergent thinking, a laboratory measure of creative cognition. After controlling for academic achievement, psychoticism and hypomania reliably predicted real-world creative achievement and divergent thinking scored with the consensual assessment technique. None of the psychopathology-spectrum scales reliably predicted divergent thinking scored with the manual scoring method. Implications for the potential links between several putative creative processes and risk factors for psychopathology are discussed.

Prediction and Factor Extraction of Drug Function by Analyzing Medical Records in Developing Countries.

PubMed

Hu, Min; Nohara, Yasunobu; Nakamura, Masafumi; Nakashima, Naoki

2017-01-01

The World Health Organization has declared Bangladesh one of 58 countries facing acute Human Resources for Health (HRH) crisis. Artificial intelligence in healthcare has been shown to be successful for diagnostics. Using machine learning to predict pharmaceutical prescriptions may solve HRH crises. In this study, we investigate a predictive model by analyzing prescription data of 4,543 subjects in Bangladesh. We predict the function of prescribed drugs, comparing three machine-learning approaches. The approaches compare whether a subject shall be prescribed medicine from the 21 most frequently prescribed drug functions. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) were selected as a way to evaluate and assess prediction models. The results show the drug function with the best prediction performance was oral hypoglycemic drugs, which has an average AUC of 0.962. To understand how the variables affect prediction, we conducted factor analysis based on tree-based algorithms and natural language processing techniques.

Fluoroscopic removal of retrievable self-expandable metal stents in patients with malignant oesophageal strictures: Experience with a non-endoscopic removal system.

PubMed

Kim, Pyeong Hwa; Song, Ho-Young; Park, Jung-Hoon; Zhou, Wei-Zhong; Na, Han Kyu; Cho, Young Chul; Jun, Eun Jung; Kim, Jun Ki; Kim, Guk Bae

2017-03-01

To evaluate clinical outcomes of fluoroscopic removal of retrievable self-expandable metal stents (SEMSs) for malignant oesophageal strictures, to compare clinical outcomes of three different removal techniques, and to identify predictive factors of successful removal by the standard technique (primary technical success). A total of 137 stents were removed from 128 patients with malignant oesophageal strictures. Primary overall technical success and removal-related complications were evaluated. Logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictive factors of primary technical success. Primary technical success rate was 78.8 % (108/137). Complications occurred in six (4.4 %) cases. Stent location in the upper oesophagus (P=0.004), stricture length over 8 cm (P=0.030), and proximal granulation tissue (P<0.001) were negative predictive factors of primary technical success. If granulation tissue was present at the proximal end, eversion technique was more frequently required (P=0.002). Fluoroscopic removal of retrievable SEMSs for malignant oesophageal strictures using three different removal techniques appeared to be safe and easy. The standard technique is safe and effective in the majority of patients. The presence of proximal granulation tissue, stent location in the upper oesophagus, and stricture length over 8 cm were negative predictive factors for primary technical success by standard extraction and may require a modified removal technique. • Fluoroscopic retrievable SEMS removal is safe and effective. • Standard removal technique by traction is effective in the majority of patients. • Three negative predictive factors of primary technical success were identified. • Caution should be exercised during the removal in those situations. • Eversion technique is effective in cases of proximal granulation tissue.

Prediction of beef carcass and meat traits from rearing factors in young bulls and cull cows.

PubMed

Soulat, J; Picard, B; Léger, S; Monteils, V

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to predict the beef carcass and LM (thoracis part) characteristics and the sensory properties of the LM from rearing factors applied during the fattening period. Individual data from 995 animals (688 young bulls and 307 cull cows) in 15 experiments were used to establish prediction models. The data concerned rearing factors (13 variables), carcass characteristics (5 variables), LM characteristics (2 variables), and LM sensory properties (3 variables). In this study, 8 prediction models were established: dressing percentage and the proportions of fat tissue and muscle in the carcass to characterize the beef carcass; cross-sectional area of fibers (mean fiber area) and isocitrate dehydrogenase activity to characterize the LM; and, finally, overall tenderness, juiciness, and flavor intensity scores to characterize the LM sensory properties. A random effect was considered in each model: the breed for the prediction models for the carcass and LM characteristics and the trained taste panel for the prediction of the meat sensory properties. To evaluate the quality of prediction models, 3 criteria were measured: robustness, accuracy, and precision. The model was robust when the root mean square errors of prediction of calibration and validation sub-data sets were near to one another. Except for the mean fiber area model, the obtained predicted models were robust. The prediction models were considered to have a high accuracy when the mean prediction error (MPE) was ≤0.10 and to have a high precision when the was the closest to 1. The prediction of the characteristics of the carcass from the rearing factors had a high precision ( > 0.70) and a high prediction accuracy (MPE < 0.10), except for the fat percentage model ( = 0.67, MPE = 0.16). However, the predictions of the LM characteristics and LM sensory properties from the rearing factors were not sufficiently precise ( < 0.50) and accurate (MPE > 0.10). Only the flavor intensity of the beef score could be satisfactorily predicted from the rearing factors with high precision ( = 0.72) and accuracy (MPE = 0.10). All the prediction models displayed different effects of the rearing factors according to animal categories (young bulls or cull cows). In consequence, these prediction models display the necessary adaption of rearing factors during the fattening period according to animal categories to optimize the carcass traits according to animal categories.

Predictive factors for bleeding during treatment with rivaroxaban and warfarin in Japanese patients with atrial fibrillation - Subgroup analysis of J-ROCKET AF.

PubMed

Hori, Masatsugu; Matsumoto, Masayasu; Tanahashi, Norio; Momomura, Shin-Ichi; Uchiyama, Shinichiro; Goto, Shinya; Izumi, Tohru; Koretsune, Yukihiro; Kajikawa, Mariko; Kato, Masaharu; Cavaliere, Mary; Iekushi, Kazuma; Yamanaka, Satoshi

2016-12-01

Results from the J-ROCKET AF study revealed that rivaroxaban was non-inferior to warfarin with respect to the principal safety outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. This subgroup analysis evaluated whether non-major clinically relevant bleeding (NMCRB) could be a predictive factor for major bleeding (MB). Other predictive factors for MB were also obtained in both rivaroxaban and warfarin treatment groups. The temporal incidence of MB was compared between the rivaroxaban and warfarin treatment groups. Assessment was made whether MB events were often preceded by NMCRB. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify any independent predictive factors for MB in both treatment groups. The incidences of MB and NMCRB were 18.04% (138/639 patients) in the rivaroxaban arm, and 16.42% in the warfarin arm (124/639 patients). NMCRB preceded MB in only four patients in each treatment group (rivaroxaban: 4/117 and warfarin: 4/98). Multivariate analysis identified predictive factors for bleeding events: anemia with warfarin treatment and concomitant use of antiplatelet agents with rivaroxaban treatment. Results from this subgroup analysis, particularly the fact that there was no repeated or sequential pattern between NMCRB and MB occurrences in both treatment groups, suggests that NMCRB might not be a predictive factor for MB. On the contrary, anemia and concomitant use of antiplatelet therapy were likely predictive factors for bleeding with warfarin and rivaroxaban treatment, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Low Accrual in the National Cancer Institute’s Cooperative Group Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Bennette, Caroline S.; Ramsey, Scott D.; McDermott, Cara L.; Carlson, Josh J.; Basu, Anirban; Veenstra, David L.

2016-01-01

Background: The extent to which trial-level factors differentially influence accrual to trials has not been comprehensively studied. Our objective was to evaluate the empirical relationship and predictive properties of putative risk factors for low accrual in the National Cancer Institute’s (NCI’s) Cooperative Group Program, now the National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN). Methods: Data from 787 phase II/III adult NCTN-sponsored trials launched between 2000 and 2011 were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict low accrual, defined as trials that closed with or were accruing at less than 50% of target; 46 trials opened between 2012 and 2013 were used for prospective validation. Candidate predictors were identified from a literature review and expert interviews; final predictors were selected using stepwise regression. Model performance was evaluated by calibration and discrimination via the area under the curve (AUC). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Eighteen percent (n = 145) of NCTN-sponsored trials closed with low accrual or were accruing at less than 50% of target three years or more after initiation. A multivariable model of twelve trial-level risk factors had good calibration and discrimination for predicting trials with low accrual (AUC in trials launched 2000–2011 = 0.739, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.696 to 0.783]; 2012–2013: AUC = 0.732, 95% CI = 0.547 to 0.917). Results were robust to different definitions of low accrual and predictor selection strategies. Conclusions: We identified multiple characteristics of NCTN-sponsored trials associated with low accrual, several of which have not been previously empirically described, and developed a prediction model that can provide a useful estimate of accrual risk based on these factors. Future work should assess the role of such prediction tools in trial design and prioritization decisions. PMID:26714555

Human Papilloma Virus: Prevalence, distribution and predictive value to lymphatic metastasis in penile carcinoma.

PubMed

Fonseca, Aluizio Gonçalves da; Soares, Fernando Augusto; Burbano, Rommel Rodriguez; Silvestre, Rodrigo Vellasco; Pinto, Luis Otávio Amaral Duarte

2013-01-01

To evaluate the prevalence, distribution and association of HPV with histological pattern of worse prognosis of penile cancer, in order to evaluate its predictive value of inguinal metastasis, as well as evaluation of other previous reported prognostic factors. Tumor samples of 82 patients with penile carcinoma were tested in order to establish the prevalence and distribution of genotypic HPV using PCR. HPV status was correlated to histopathological factors and the presence of inguinal mestastasis. The influence of several histological characteristics was also correlated to inguinal disease-free survival. Follow-up varied from 1 to 71 months (median 22 months). HPV DNA was identified in 60.9% of sample, with higher prevalence of types 11 and 6 (64% and 32%, respectively). There was no significant correlation of the histological characteristics of worse prognosis of penile cancer with HPV status. Inguinal disease-free survival in 5 years did also not show HPV status influence (p = 0.45). The only independent pathologic factors of inguinal metastasis were: stage T ≥ T1b-T4 (p = 0.02), lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.04) and infiltrative invasion (p = 0.03). HPV status and distribution had shown no correlation with worse prognosis of histological aspects, or predictive value for lymphatic metastasis in penile carcinoma.

Evaluation and integration of existing methods for computational prediction of allergens

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Allergy involves a series of complex reactions and factors that contribute to the development of the disease and triggering of the symptoms, including rhinitis, asthma, atopic eczema, skin sensitivity, even acute and fatal anaphylactic shock. Prediction and evaluation of the potential allergenicity is of importance for safety evaluation of foods and other environment factors. Although several computational approaches for assessing the potential allergenicity of proteins have been developed, their performance and relative merits and shortcomings have not been compared systematically. Results To evaluate and improve the existing methods for allergen prediction, we collected an up-to-date definitive dataset consisting of 989 known allergens and massive putative non-allergens. The three most widely used allergen computational prediction approaches including sequence-, motif- and SVM-based (Support Vector Machine) methods were systematically compared using the defined parameters and we found that SVM-based method outperformed the other two methods with higher accuracy and specificity. The sequence-based method with the criteria defined by FAO/WHO (FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; WHO: World Health Organization) has higher sensitivity of over 98%, but having a low specificity. The advantage of motif-based method is the ability to visualize the key motif within the allergen. Notably, the performances of the sequence-based method defined by FAO/WHO and motif eliciting strategy could be improved by the optimization of parameters. To facilitate the allergen prediction, we integrated these three methods in a web-based application proAP, which provides the global search of the known allergens and a powerful tool for allergen predication. Flexible parameter setting and batch prediction were also implemented. The proAP can be accessed at http://gmobl.sjtu.edu.cn/proAP/main.html. Conclusions This study comprehensively evaluated sequence-, motif- and SVM-based computational prediction approaches for allergens and optimized their parameters to obtain better performance. These findings may provide helpful guidance for the researchers in allergen-prediction. Furthermore, we integrated these methods into a web application proAP, greatly facilitating users to do customizable allergen search and prediction. PMID:23514097

Evaluation and integration of existing methods for computational prediction of allergens.

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Yu, Yabin; Zhao, Yunan; Zhang, Dabing; Li, Jing

2013-01-01

Allergy involves a series of complex reactions and factors that contribute to the development of the disease and triggering of the symptoms, including rhinitis, asthma, atopic eczema, skin sensitivity, even acute and fatal anaphylactic shock. Prediction and evaluation of the potential allergenicity is of importance for safety evaluation of foods and other environment factors. Although several computational approaches for assessing the potential allergenicity of proteins have been developed, their performance and relative merits and shortcomings have not been compared systematically. To evaluate and improve the existing methods for allergen prediction, we collected an up-to-date definitive dataset consisting of 989 known allergens and massive putative non-allergens. The three most widely used allergen computational prediction approaches including sequence-, motif- and SVM-based (Support Vector Machine) methods were systematically compared using the defined parameters and we found that SVM-based method outperformed the other two methods with higher accuracy and specificity. The sequence-based method with the criteria defined by FAO/WHO (FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; WHO: World Health Organization) has higher sensitivity of over 98%, but having a low specificity. The advantage of motif-based method is the ability to visualize the key motif within the allergen. Notably, the performances of the sequence-based method defined by FAO/WHO and motif eliciting strategy could be improved by the optimization of parameters. To facilitate the allergen prediction, we integrated these three methods in a web-based application proAP, which provides the global search of the known allergens and a powerful tool for allergen predication. Flexible parameter setting and batch prediction were also implemented. The proAP can be accessed at http://gmobl.sjtu.edu.cn/proAP/main.html. This study comprehensively evaluated sequence-, motif- and SVM-based computational prediction approaches for allergens and optimized their parameters to obtain better performance. These findings may provide helpful guidance for the researchers in allergen-prediction. Furthermore, we integrated these methods into a web application proAP, greatly facilitating users to do customizable allergen search and prediction.

Experimental evaluation of a mathematical model for predicting transfer efficiency of a high volume-low pressure air spray gun.

PubMed

Tan, Y M; Flynn, M R

2000-10-01

The transfer efficiency of a spray-painting gun is defined as the amount of coating applied to the workpiece divided by the amount sprayed. Characterizing this transfer process allows for accurate estimation of the overspray generation rate, which is important for determining a spray painter's exposure to airborne contaminants. This study presents an experimental evaluation of a mathematical model for predicting the transfer efficiency of a high volume-low pressure spray gun. The effects of gun-to-surface distance and nozzle pressure on the agreement between the transfer efficiency measurement and prediction were examined. Wind tunnel studies and non-volatile vacuum pump oil in place of commercial paint were used to determine transfer efficiency at nine gun-to-surface distances and four nozzle pressure levels. The mathematical model successfully predicts transfer efficiency within the uncertainty limits. The least squares regression between measured and predicted transfer efficiency has a slope of 0.83 and an intercept of 0.12 (R2 = 0.98). Two correction factors were determined to improve the mathematical model. At higher nozzle pressure settings, 6.5 psig and 5.5 psig, the correction factor is a function of both gun-to-surface distance and nozzle pressure level. At lower nozzle pressures, 4 psig and 2.75 psig, gun-to-surface distance slightly influences the correction factor, while nozzle pressure has no discernible effect.

Visual fatigue modeling for stereoscopic video shot based on camera motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Guozhong; Sang, Xinzhu; Yu, Xunbo; Liu, Yangdong; Liu, Jing

2014-11-01

As three-dimensional television (3-DTV) and 3-D movie become popular, the discomfort of visual feeling limits further applications of 3D display technology. The cause of visual discomfort from stereoscopic video conflicts between accommodation and convergence, excessive binocular parallax, fast motion of objects and so on. Here, a novel method for evaluating visual fatigue is demonstrated. Influence factors including spatial structure, motion scale and comfortable zone are analyzed. According to the human visual system (HVS), people only need to converge their eyes to the specific objects for static cameras and background. Relative motion should be considered for different camera conditions determining different factor coefficients and weights. Compared with the traditional visual fatigue prediction model, a novel visual fatigue predicting model is presented. Visual fatigue degree is predicted using multiple linear regression method combining with the subjective evaluation. Consequently, each factor can reflect the characteristics of the scene, and the total visual fatigue score can be indicated according to the proposed algorithm. Compared with conventional algorithms which ignored the status of the camera, our approach exhibits reliable performance in terms of correlation with subjective test results.

Developmental Screening Referrals: Child and Family Factors that Predict Referral Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennings, Danielle J.; Hanline, Mary Frances

2013-01-01

This study researched the predictive impact of developmental screening results and the effects of child and family characteristics on completion of referrals given for evaluation. Logistical and hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to determine the significance of 10 independent variables on the predictor variable. The number of…

Prediction and Stability of Mathematics Skill and Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Rebecca B.; Cirino, Paul T.; Barnes, Marcia A.; Ewing-Cobbs, Linda; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Stuebing, Karla K.; Fletcher, Jack M.

2013-01-01

The present study evaluated the stability of math learning difficulties over a 2-year period and investigated several factors that might influence this stability (categorical vs. continuous change, liberal vs. conservative cut point, broad vs. specific math assessment); the prediction of math performance over time and by performance level was also…

Functional capacity evaluation of work performance among individuals with pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Ratzon, Navah Z; Ari Shevil, Eynat Ben; Froom, Paul; Friedman, Sharon; Amit, Yehuda

2013-01-01

Pelvic injuries following motor vehicle accidents (MVA) cause disability and affect work capabilities. This study evaluated functional, self-report, and medical-based factors that could predict work capacity as was reflected in a functional capacity evaluation (FCE) among persons who sustained a pelvic injury. It was hypothesized that self-reported functional status and bio-demographic variables would predict work capacity. Sixty-one community-dwelling adults previously hospitalized following a MVA induced pelvic injury. FCE for work performance was conducted using the Physical Work Performance Evaluation (PWPE). Additional data was collected through a demographics questionnaire and the Functional Status Questionnaire. All participants underwent an orthopedic medical examination of the hip and lower extremities. Most participants self-reported that their work capacity post-injury were lower than their job required. PWPE scores indicated below-range functional performance. Regression models predicted 23% to 51% of PWPE subtests. Participants' self-report of functioning (instrumental activities of daily living and work) and bio-demographic variables (gender and age) were better predictors of PWPE scores than factors originating from the medical examination. Results support the inclusion of FCE, in addition to self-report of functioning and medical examination, to evaluate work capacity among individuals' post-pelvic injury and interventions and discharge planning.

Relation between different metal pollution criteria in sediments and its contribution on assessing toxicity.

PubMed

Alves, Cristina M; Ferreira, Carlos M H; Soares, Helena M V M

2018-05-14

Several tools have been developed and applied to evaluate the metal pollution status of sediments and predict their potential ecological risk assessment. To date, a comprehensive relationship between the information given by these sediment tools for predicting metal bioavailability and the effective toxicity observed is lacking. In this work, the possible inter-correlations between the data outcoming from using several qualitative evaluation tools of the sediment contamination (contamination factor, CF, the enrichment factor, EF, or the geoaccumulation index, Igeo), metal speciation on sediments (evaluated by the modified BCR sequential extraction procedure) and free metal concentrations in pore waters were studied. It was also our aim to evaluate if these assessment tools could be used for predicting the pore waters toxicity data as toxicity proxy. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis revealed that two quality indices used (CF and EF) were highly correlatable with the more labile fractions from BCR sediment speciation. However, neither of these parameters did correlate with the toxicity of pore waters measured by the chronic toxicity (72 h) in Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. In contrast, the toxic effects of the given total metal load in sediments were better evaluated by using an additive metal approach using pore water free metal concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mixed methods evaluation of the maternal-newborn dashboard in Ontario: dashboard attributes, contextual factors, and facilitators and barriers to use: a study protocol.

PubMed

Dunn, Sandra; Sprague, Ann E; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Graham, Ian D; Taljaard, Monica; Fell, Deshayne; Peterson, Wendy E; Darling, Elizabeth; Harrold, JoAnn; Smith, Graeme N; Reszel, Jessica; Lanes, Andrea; Truskoski, Carolyn; Wilding, Jodi; Weiss, Deborah; Walker, Mark

2016-05-04

There are wide variations in maternal-newborn care practices and outcomes across Ontario. To help institutions and care providers learn about their own performance, the Better Outcomes Registry & Network (BORN) Ontario has implemented an audit and feedback system, the Maternal-Newborn Dashboard (MND), for all hospitals providing maternal-newborn care. The dashboard provides (1) near real-time feedback, with site-specific and peer comparison data about six key performance indicators; (2) a visual display of evidence-practice gaps related to the indicators; and (3) benchmarks to provide direction for practice change. This study aims to evaluate the effects of the dashboard, dashboard attributes, contextual factors, and facilitation/support needs that influence the use of this audit and feedback system to improve performance. The objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate the effect of implementing the dashboard across Ontario; (2) explore factors that potentially explain differences in the use of the MND among hospitals; (3) measure factors potentially associated with differential effectiveness of the MND; and (4) identify factors that predict differences in hospital performance. A mixed methods design includes (1) an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the effect of the intervention on six indicators, (2) key informant interviews with a purposeful sample of directors/managers from up to 20 maternal-newborn care hospitals to explore factors that influence the use of the dashboard, (3) a provincial survey of obstetrical directors/managers from all maternal-newborn hospitals in the province to measure factors that influence the use of the dashboard, and (4) a multivariable generalized linear mixed effects regression analysis of the indicators at each hospital to quantitatively evaluate the change in practice following implementation of the dashboard and to identify factors most predictive of use. Study results will provide essential data to develop knowledge translation strategies for facilitating practice change, which can be further evaluated through a future cluster randomized trial.

Examining construct and predictive validity of the Health-IT Usability Evaluation Scale: confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling results.

PubMed

Yen, Po-Yin; Sousa, Karen H; Bakken, Suzanne

2014-10-01

In a previous study, we developed the Health Information Technology Usability Evaluation Scale (Health-ITUES), which is designed to support customization at the item level. Such customization matches the specific tasks/expectations of a health IT system while retaining comparability at the construct level, and provides evidence of its factorial validity and internal consistency reliability through exploratory factor analysis. In this study, we advanced the development of Health-ITUES to examine its construct validity and predictive validity. The health IT system studied was a web-based communication system that supported nurse staffing and scheduling. Using Health-ITUES, we conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate users' perception toward the web-based communication system after system implementation. We examined Health-ITUES's construct validity through first and second order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and its predictive validity via structural equation modeling (SEM). The sample comprised 541 staff nurses in two healthcare organizations. The CFA (n=165) showed that a general usability factor accounted for 78.1%, 93.4%, 51.0%, and 39.9% of the explained variance in 'Quality of Work Life', 'Perceived Usefulness', 'Perceived Ease of Use', and 'User Control', respectively. The SEM (n=541) supported the predictive validity of Health-ITUES, explaining 64% of the variance in intention for system use. The results of CFA and SEM provide additional evidence for the construct and predictive validity of Health-ITUES. The customizability of Health-ITUES has the potential to support comparisons at the construct level, while allowing variation at the item level. We also illustrate application of Health-ITUES across stages of system development. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment. [impact of heating rate prediction errors on weight of thermal protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fehrman, A. L.; Masek, R. V.

1972-01-01

Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

Watch what happens: using a web-based multimedia platform to enhance intraoperative learning and development of clinical reasoning.

PubMed

Fingeret, Abbey L; Martinez, Rebecca H; Hsieh, Christine; Downey, Peter; Nowygrod, Roman

2016-02-01

We aim to determine whether observed operations or internet-based video review predict improved performance in the surgery clerkship. A retrospective review of students' usage of surgical videos, observed operations, evaluations, and examination scores were used to construct an exploratory principal component analysis. Multivariate regression was used to determine factors predictive of clerkship performance. Case log data for 231 students revealed a median of 25 observed cases. Students accessed the web-based video platform a median of 15 times. Principal component analysis yielded 4 factors contributing 74% of the variability with a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin coefficient of .83. Multivariate regression predicted shelf score (P < .0001), internal clinical skills examination score (P < .0001), subjective evaluations (P < .001), and video website utilization (P < .001) but not observed cases to be significantly associated with overall performance. Utilization of a web-based operative video platform during a surgical clerkship is an independently associated with improved clinical reasoning, fund of knowledge, and overall evaluation. Thus, this modality can serve as a useful adjunct to live observation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does experience of the 'occult' predict use of complementary medicine? Experience of, and beliefs about, both complementary medicine and ways of telling the future.

PubMed

Furnham, A

2000-12-01

This study looked at the relationship between ratings of the perceived effectiveness of 24 methods for telling the future, 39 complementary therapies (CM) and 12 specific attitude statements about science and medicine. A total of 159 participants took part. The results showed that the participants were deeply sceptical of the effectiveness of the methods for telling the future which factored into meaningful and interpretable factors. Participants were much more positive about particular, but not all, specialties of complementary medicine (CM). These also factored into a meaningful factor structure. Finally, the 12 attitude to science/medicine statements revealed four factors: scepticism of medicine; the importance of psychological factors; patient protection; and the importance of scientific evaluation. Regressional analysis showed that belief in the total effectiveness of different ways of predicting the future was best predicted by beliefs in the effectiveness of the CM therapies. Although interest in the occult was associated with interest in CM, participants were able to distinguish between the two, and displayed scepticism about the effectiveness of methods of predicting the future and some CM therapies. Copyright 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

[Psychosocial factors at work and cardiovascular diseases: contribution of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model].

PubMed

Niedhammer, I; Siegrist, J

1998-11-01

The effect of psychosocial factors at work on health, especially cardiovascular health, has given rise to growing concern in occupational epidemiology over the last few years. Two theoretical models, Karasek's model and the Effort-Reward Imbalance model, have been developed to evaluate psychosocial factors at work within specific conceptual frameworks in an attempt to take into account the serious methodological difficulties inherent in the evaluation of such factors. Karasek's model, the most widely used model, measures three factors: psychological demands, decision latitude and social support at work. Many studies have shown the predictive effects of these factors on cardiovascular diseases independently of well-known cardiovascular risk factors. More recently, the Effort-Reward Imbalance model takes into account the role of individual coping characteristics which was neglected in the Karasek model. The effort-reward imbalance model focuses on the reciprocity of exchange in occupational life where high-cost/low-gain conditions are considered particularly stressful. Three dimensions of rewards are distinguished: money, esteem and gratifications in terms of promotion prospects and job security. Some studies already support that high-effort/low reward-conditions are predictive of cardiovascular diseases.

Predictive factors for intrauterine growth restriction.

PubMed

Albu, A R; Anca, A F; Horhoianu, V V; Horhoianu, I A

2014-06-15

Reduced fetal growth is seen in about 10% of the pregnancies but only a minority has a pathological background and is known as intrauterine growth restriction or fetal growth restriction (IUGR / FGR). Increased fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity as well as adult pathologic conditions are often associated to IUGR. Risk factors for IUGR are easy to assess but have poor predictive value. For the diagnostic purpose, biochemical serum markers, ultrasound and Doppler study of uterine and spiral arteries, placental volume and vascularization, first trimester growth pattern are object of assessment today. Modern evaluations propose combined algorithms using these strategies, all with the goal of a better prediction of risk pregnancies.

Environmental Factors Affecting Asthma and Allergies: Predicting and Simulating Downwind Exposure to Airborne Pollen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey; Estes, Sue; Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Huete, Alfredo; Solano, Ramon; Ratana, Piyachat; Jiang, Zhangyan; Flowers, Len; Zelicoff, Alan

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the environmental factors that affect asthma and allergies and work to predict and simulate the downwind exposure to airborne pollen. Using a modification of Dust REgional Atmosphere Model (DREAM) that incorporates phenology (i.e. PREAM) the aim was to predict concentrations of pollen in time and space. The strategy for using the model to simulate downwind pollen dispersal, and evaluate the results. Using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to get seasonal sampling of Juniper, the pollen chosen for the study, land cover on a near daily basis. The results of the model are reviewed.

An Evaluation and Redesign of the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning Planview Graphical User Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laudeman, Irene V.; Brasil, Connie L.; Stassart, Philippe

1998-01-01

The Planview Graphical User Interface (PGUI) is the primary display of air traffic for the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning, function of the Center TRACON Automation System. The PGUI displays air traffic information that assists the user in making decisions related to conflict detection, conflict resolution, and traffic flow management. The intent of this document is to outline the human factors issues related to the design of the conflict prediction and trial planning portions of the PGUI, document all human factors related design changes made to the PGUI from December 1996 to September 1997, and outline future plans for the ongoing PGUI design.

The cross-cultural generalizability of Axis-II constructs: an evaluation of two personality disorder assessment instruments in the People's Republic of China.

PubMed

Yang, J; McCrae, R R; Costa, P T; Yao, S; Dai, X; Cai, T; Gao, B

2000-01-01

We examined the reliability, cross-instrument validity, and factor structure of Chinese adaptations of the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire (PDQ-4+; N = 1,926) and Personality Disorders Interview (PDI-IV; N = 525) in psychiatric patients. Comparisons with data from Western countries suggest that the psychometric properties of these two instruments are comparable across cultures. Low to modest agreement between the PDQ-4+ and PDI-IV was observed for both dimensional and categorical personality disorder evaluations. When the PDI-IV was used as the diagnostic standard, the PDQ-4+ showed higher sensitivity than specificity, and higher negative predictive power than positive predictive power. Factor analyses of both instruments replicated the four-factor structure O'Connor and Dyce (1998) found in Western samples. Results suggested that conceptions and measures of DSM-IV personality disorders are cross-culturally generalizable to Chinese psychiatric populations.

Risk factors for lung function decline in a large cohort of young cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Cogen, Jonathan; Emerson, Julia; Sanders, Don B; Ren, Clement; Schechter, Michael S; Gibson, Ronald L; Morgan, Wayne; Rosenfeld, Margaret

2015-08-01

To identify novel risk factors and corroborate previously identified risk factors for mean annual decline in FEV1% predicted in a large, contemporary, United States cohort of young cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Retrospective observational study of participants in the EPIC Observational Study, who were Pseudomonas-negative and ≤12 years of age at enrollment in 2004-2006. The associations between potential demographic, clinical, and environmental risk factors evaluated during the baseline year and subsequent mean annual decline in FEV1 percent predicted were evaluated using generalized estimating equations. The 946 participants in the current analysis were followed for a mean of 6.2 (SD 1.3) years. Mean annual decline in FEV1% predicted was 1.01% (95%CI 0.85-1.17%). Children with one or no F508del mutations had a significantly smaller annual decline in FEV1 compared to F508del homozygotes. In a multivariable model, risk factors during the baseline year associated with a larger subsequent mean annual lung function decline included female gender, frequent or productive cough, low BMI (<66th percentile, median in the cohort), ≥1 pulmonary exacerbation, high FEV1 (≥115% predicted, in the top quartile), and respiratory culture positive for methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus, or Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. We have identified a range of risk factors for FEV1 decline in a large cohort of young, CF patients who were Pa negative at enrollment, including novel as well as previously identified characteristics. These results could inform the design of a clinical trial in which rate of FEV1 decline is the primary endpoint and identify high-risk groups that may benefit from closer monitoring. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of hepatic tumours: factors affecting technical failure of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath.

PubMed

Kang, T W; Lee, M W; Hye, M J; Song, K D; Lim, S; Rhim, H; Lim, H K; Cha, D I

2014-12-01

To evaluate the technical feasibility of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath before percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatic tumours and to determine predictive factors affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board. One hundred and thirteen patients underwent percutaneous RFA of hepatic tumours after trying to make artificial ascites using an angiosheath to avoid collateral thermal damage. The technical success rate of making artificial ascites using an angiosheath and conversion rate to other techniques after initial failure of making artificial ascites were evaluated. The technical success rate for RFA was assessed. In addition, potential factors associated with technical failure including previous history of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) or RFA, type of abdominal surgery, and adjacent perihepatic structures were reviewed. Predictive factors for the technical failure of artificial ascites formation were analysed using multivariate analysis. The technical success rates of artificial ascites formation by angiosheath and that of RFA were 84.1% (95/113) and 97.3% (110/113), respectively. The conversion rate to other techniques after the failure of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath was 15.9% (18/113). Previous hepatic resection was the sole independent predictive factor affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation (p<0.001, odds ratio = 29.03, 95% confidence interval: 4.56-184.69). Making artificial ascites for RFA of hepatic tumours using an angiosheath was technically feasible in most cases. However, history of hepatic resection was a significant predictive factor affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

PubMed

Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

2017-02-01

Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

The Smoking Consequences Questionnaire: Factor structure and predictive validity among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States.

PubMed

Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Vidrine, Damon J; Costello, Tracy J; Mazas, Carlos; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Mejia, Luz Maria; Wetter, David W

2009-11-01

Much of the existing research on smoking outcome expectancies has been guided by the Smoking Consequences Questionnaire (SCQ ). Although the original version of the SCQ has been modified over time for use in different populations, none of the existing versions have been evaluated for use among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States. The present study evaluated the factor structure and predictive validity of the 3 previously validated versions of the SCQ--the original, the SCQ-Adult, and the SCQ-Spanish, which was developed with Spanish-speaking smokers in Spain--among Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in Texas. The SCQ-Spanish represented the least complex solution. Each of the SCQ-Spanish scales had good internal consistency, and the predictive validity of the SCQ-Spanish was partially supported. Nearly all the SCQ-Spanish scales predicted withdrawal severity even after controlling for demographics and dependence. Boredom Reduction predicted smoking relapse across the 5- and 12-week follow-up assessments in a multivariate model that also controlled for demographics and dependence. Our results support use of the SCQ-Spanish with Spanish-speaking Latino smokers in the United States.

Quality of life before hyperhidrosis treatment as a predictive factor for oxybutynin treatment outcomes in palmar and axillary hyperhidrosis.

PubMed

Wolosker, Nelson; Krutman, Mariana; Teivelis, Marcelo P; Campbell, Taiz P D A; Kauffman, Paulo; de Campos, José Ribas M; Puech-Leão, Pedro

2014-05-01

Studies have suggested that quality of life (QOL) evaluation before video-assisted thoracoscopic sympathectomy for patients with hyperhidrosis may serve as a predictive factor for positive postoperative outcomes. Our study aims to analyze if this tendency is also observed in patients treated with oxybutynin for palmar and axillary hyperhidrosis. Five hundred sixty-five patients who submitted to a protocol treatment with oxybutynin were retrospectively analyzed between January 2007 and January 2012 and were divided into 2 groups according to QOL assessment before treatment. The groups consisted of 176 patients with "poor" and 389 patients with "very poor" QOL evaluation before oxybutynin treatment. Outcomes involving improvements in QOL and clinical progression of hyperhidrosis were evaluated using a validated clinical questionnaire that was specifically designed to assess satisfaction in patients with excessive sweating. Improvements in hyperhidrosis after oxybutynin were observed in 65.5% of patients with very poor pretreatment QOL scores and in 75% of patients with poor pretreatment QOL scores, and the only adverse event associated with oxybutynin treatment was dry mouth, which was observed with greater intensity in patients with very poor initial QOL evaluation. Improvements in hyperhidrosis after oxybutynin treatment were similar in both groups, suggesting that QOL before treatment is not a predictive factor for clinical outcomes, contrasting with surgical results that disclose significantly better results in patients with initially poorer QOL analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Predictive factors of mortality of the burnt persons: study on 221 adults hospitalized between 2004 and 2009].

PubMed

Elkafssaoui, S; Hami, H; Mrabet, M; Bouaiti, E; Tourabi, K; Quyou, A; Soulaymani, A; Ihrai, H

2014-06-01

The objective of the present study is the evaluation of the predictive factors of mortality to a troop of Moroccan grown-up serious burnt persons. Variables analyzed in the study are: the age, the sex, the localization of the burn, the degree of burn, indicates Total Body Surface Area (TBSA), indicate Unit of Standard Burn (UBS) and the indication of leases, sepsis and the medical histories (tobacco, diabetes). Factors associated significantly to a mortality raised at the burned patients were the female genital organ, the localization of the burn at the level of the head, the sepsis, one TBSA greater or equal to 20%, an UBS greater or equal to 200 and an indication of leases greater or equal to 75. Other factors such as the age, the degree of burn and the histories did not show a significant difference. An evaluation and a good knowledge of factors associated to a high risk of death allow an adequate coverage of this category of patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Acoustic environments for JPL shuttle payloads based on early flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oconnell, M. R.; Kern, D. L.

1983-01-01

Shuttle payload acoustic environmental predictions for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Galileo and Wide Field/Planetary Camera projects have been developed from STS-2 and STS-3 flight data. This evaluation of actual STS flight data resulted in reduced predicted environments for the JPL shuttle payloads. Shuttle payload mean acoustic levels were enveloped. Uncertainty factors were added to the mean envelope to provide confidence in the predicted environment.

How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population.

PubMed

Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

2015-01-01

While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish.

PubMed

Pinder, John E; Rowan, David J; Smith, Jim T

2016-02-01

Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict (137)Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of competitive ability within Lonicera japonica's invaded range

Treesearch

Gregory A. Evans; Francis F. Kilkenny; Laura F. Galloway

2013-01-01

Factors influencing invasive taxa may change during the course of an invasion. For example, intraspecific competition is predicted to be more important in areas with older stands of dense monospecific invaders than at the margins of an invaded range. We evaluated evolution in response to predicted changes in competition by comparing the intraspecific competitive...

Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

2006-01-01

Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

Predicting Middle Level State Standardized Test Results Using Family and Community Demographic Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tienken, Christopher H.; Colella, Anthony; Angelillo, Christian; Fox, Meredith; McCahill, Kevin R.; Wolfe, Adam

2017-01-01

The use of standardized test results to drive school administrator evaluations pervades education policymaking in more than 40 states. However, the results of state standardized tests are strongly influenced by non-school factors. The models of best fit (n = 18) from this correlational, explanatory, longitudinal study predicted accurately the…

Does Illness Perception Predict Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Patients with Myocardial Infarction?

PubMed

Oflaz, Serap; Yüksel, Şahika; Şen, Fatma; Özdemiroğlu, Filiz; Kurt, Ramazan; Oflaz, Hüseyin; Kaşikcioğlu, Erdem

2014-06-01

Myocardial infarction (MI) as a life-threatening event, carrying high risk of recurrence and chronic disabling complications, increases the risk of developing acute stress disorder (ASD), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or both. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between illness perceptions and having ASD, PTSD, or both in patients after MI. Seventy-six patients diagnosed with acute MI were enrolled into our prospective study. We evaluated patients during the first week and six months after MI. Patients were assessed by using the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HARS), the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), and a semi-structured interview for socio-demographic characteristics during both the first and second evaluations. Acute stress disorder (ASD) developed in 9.2% of patients and PTSD developed in 11.9% of patients with MI. Illness perception factors of 'consequences, identity and concern' predicted the occurrence of both ASD and PTSD, whereas 'emotion' predicted only PTSD. The factors of illness perceptions predicted the induction of ASD and PTSD in patients who had acute MI.

The Lack of Utility of Circulating Biomarkers of Inflammation and Endothelial Dysfunction for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction Among Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Chao, Chun; Song, Yiqing; Cook, Nancy; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Manson, JoAnn E.; Eaton, Charles; Margolis, Karen L.; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Tinker, Lesley F.; Liu, Simin

2011-01-01

Background Recent studies have linked plasma markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction to type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) development. However, the utility of these novel biomarkers for type 2 DM risk prediction remains uncertain. Methods The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHIOS), a prospective cohort, and a nested case-control study within the WHIOS of 1584 incident type 2 DM cases and 2198 matched controls were used to evaluate the utility of plasma markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction for type 2 DM risk prediction. Between September 1994 and December 1998, 93 676 women aged 50 to 79 years were enrolled in the WHIOS. Fasting plasma levels of glucose, insulin, white blood cells, tumor necrosis factor receptor 2, interleukin 6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, E-selectin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 were measured using blood samples collected at baseline. A series of prediction models including traditional risk factors and novel plasma markers were evaluated on the basis of global model fit, model discrimination, net reclassification improvement, and positive and negative predictive values. Results Although white blood cell count and levels of interleukin 6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 significantly enhanced model fit, none of the inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers improved the ability of model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.93 vs 0.93), net reclassification, or predictive values (positive, 0.22 vs 0.24; negative, 0.99 vs 0.99 [using 15% 6-year type 2 DM risk as the cutoff]) compared with traditional risk factors. Similar results were obtained in ethnic-specific analyses. Conclusion Beyond traditional risk factors, measurement of plasma markers of systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction contribute relatively little additional value in clinical type 2 DM risk prediction in a multiethnic cohort of postmenopausal women. PMID:20876407

The contribution of changes in diet, exercise, and stress management to changes in coronary risk in women and men in the multisite cardiac lifestyle intervention program.

PubMed

Daubenmier, Jennifer J; Weidner, Gerdi; Sumner, Michael D; Mendell, Nancy; Merritt-Worden, Terri; Studley, Joli; Ornish, Dean

2007-02-01

The relative contribution of health behaviors to coronary risk factors in multicomponent secondary coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention programs is largely unknown. Our purpose is to evaluate the additive and interactive effects of 3-month changes in health behaviors (dietary fat intake, exercise, and stress management) on 3-month changes in coronary risk and psychosocial factors among 869 nonsmoking CHD patients (34% female) enrolled in the health insurance-based Multisite Cardiac Lifestyle Intervention Program. Analyses of variance for repeated measures were used to analyze health behaviors, coronary risk factors, and psychosocial factors at baseline and 3 months. Multiple regression analyses evaluated changes in dietary fat intake and hours per week of exercise and stress management as predictors of changes in coronary risk and psychosocial factors. Significant overall improvement in coronary risk was observed. Reductions in dietary fat intake predicted reductions in weight, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and interacted with increased exercise to predict reductions in perceived stress. Increases in exercise predicted improvements in total cholesterol and exercise capacity (for women). Increased stress management was related to reductions in weight, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (for men), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c (in patients with diabetes), and hostility. Improvements in dietary fat intake, exercise, and stress management were individually, additively and interactively related to coronary risk and psychosocial factors, suggesting that multicomponent programs focusing on diet, exercise, and stress management may benefit patients with CHD.

Preliminary evaluation of factors associated with premature trial closure and feasibility of accrual benchmarks in phase III oncology trials.

PubMed

Schroen, Anneke T; Petroni, Gina R; Wang, Hongkun; Gray, Robert; Wang, Xiaofei F; Cronin, Walter; Sargent, Daniel J; Benedetti, Jacqueline; Wickerham, Donald L; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Slingluff, Craig L

2010-08-01

A major challenge for randomized phase III oncology trials is the frequent low rates of patient enrollment, resulting in high rates of premature closure due to insufficient accrual. We conducted a pilot study to determine the extent of trial closure due to poor accrual, feasibility of identifying trial factors associated with sufficient accrual, impact of redesign strategies on trial accrual, and accrual benchmarks designating high failure risk in the clinical trials cooperative group (CTCG) setting. A subset of phase III trials opened by five CTCGs between August 1991 and March 2004 was evaluated. Design elements, experimental agents, redesign strategies, and pretrial accrual assessment supporting accrual predictions were abstracted from CTCG documents. Percent actual/predicted accrual rate averaged per month was calculated. Trials were categorized as having sufficient or insufficient accrual based on reason for trial termination. Analyses included univariate and bivariate summaries to identify potential trial factors associated with accrual sufficiency. Among 40 trials from one CTCG, 21 (52.5%) trials closed due to insufficient accrual. In 82 trials from five CTCGs, therapeutic trials accrued sufficiently more often than nontherapeutic trials (59% vs 27%, p = 0.05). Trials including pretrial accrual assessment more often achieved sufficient accrual than those without (67% vs 47%, p = 0.08). Fewer exclusion criteria, shorter consent forms, other CTCG participation, and trial design simplicity were not associated with achieving sufficient accrual. Trials accruing at a rate much lower than predicted (<35% actual/predicted accrual rate) were consistently closed due to insufficient accrual. This trial subset under-represents certain experimental modalities. Data sources do not allow accounting for all factors potentially related to accrual success. Trial closure due to insufficient accrual is common. Certain trial design factors appear associated with attaining sufficient accrual. Defining accrual benchmarks for early trial termination or redesign is feasible, but better accrual prediction methods are critically needed. Future studies should focus on identifying trial factors that allow more accurate accrual predictions and strategies that can salvage open trials experiencing slow accrual.

Preliminary evaluation of factors associated with premature trial closure and feasibility of accrual benchmarks in phase III oncology trials

PubMed Central

Schroen, Anneke T; Petroni, Gina R; Wang, Hongkun; Gray, Robert; Wang, Xiaofei F; Cronin, Walter; Sargent, Daniel J; Benedetti, Jacqueline; Wickerham, Donald L; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Slingluff, Craig L

2014-01-01

Background A major challenge for randomized phase III oncology trials is the frequent low rates of patient enrollment, resulting in high rates of premature closure due to insufficient accrual. Purpose We conducted a pilot study to determine the extent of trial closure due to poor accrual, feasibility of identifying trial factors associated with sufficient accrual, impact of redesign strategies on trial accrual, and accrual benchmarks designating high failure risk in the clinical trials cooperative group (CTCG) setting. Methods A subset of phase III trials opened by five CTCGs between August 1991 and March 2004 was evaluated. Design elements, experimental agents, redesign strategies, and pretrial accrual assessment supporting accrual predictions were abstracted from CTCG documents. Percent actual/predicted accrual rate averaged per month was calculated. Trials were categorized as having sufficient or insufficient accrual based on reason for trial termination. Analyses included univariate and bivariate summaries to identify potential trial factors associated with accrual sufficiency. Results Among 40 trials from one CTCG, 21 (52.5%) trials closed due to insufficient accrual. In 82 trials from five CTCGs, therapeutic trials accrued sufficiently more often than nontherapeutic trials (59% vs 27%, p = 0.05). Trials including pretrial accrual assessment more often achieved sufficient accrual than those without (67% vs 47%, p = 0.08). Fewer exclusion criteria, shorter consent forms, other CTCG participation, and trial design simplicity were not associated with achieving sufficient accrual. Trials accruing at a rate much lower than predicted (<35% actual/predicted accrual rate) were consistently closed due to insufficient accrual. Limitations This trial subset under-represents certain experimental modalities. Data sources do not allow accounting for all factors potentially related to accrual success. Conclusion Trial closure due to insufficient accrual is common. Certain trial design factors appear associated with attaining sufficient accrual. Defining accrual benchmarks for early trial termination or redesign is feasible, but better accrual prediction methods are critically needed. Future studies should focus on identifying trial factors that allow more accurate accrual predictions and strategies that can salvage open trials experiencing slow accrual. PMID:20595245

Evaluating Mediated Perception of Narrative Health Messages: The Perception of Narrative Performance Scale

PubMed Central

Lee, Jeong Kyu; Hecht, Michael L.; Miller-Day, Michelle; Elek, Elvira

2011-01-01

Narrative media health messages have proven effective in preventing adolescents’ substance use but as yet few measures exist to assess perceptions of them. Without such a measure it is difficult to evaluate the role these messages play in health promotion or to differentiate them from other message forms. In response to this need, a study was conducted to evaluate the Perception of Narrative Performance Scale that assesses perceptions of narrative health messages. A sample of 1185 fifth graders in public schools at Phoenix, Arizona completed a questionnaire rating of two videos presenting narrative substance use prevention messages. Confirmatory factor analyses were computed to identify the factor structure of the scale. Consistent with prior studies, results suggest a 3 factor structure for the Perception of Narrative Performance Scale: interest, realism, and identification (with characters). In addition, a path analysis was performed to test the predictive power of the scale. The analysis shows that the scale proves useful in predicting intent to use substances. Finally, practical implications and limitations are discussed. PMID:21822459

The DoE method as an efficient tool for modeling the behavior of monocrystalline Si-PV module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessaissia, Fatma Zohra; Zegaoui, Abdallah; Boutoubat, Mohamed; Allouache, Hadj; Aillerie, Michel; Charles, Jean-Pierre

2018-05-01

The objective of this paper is to apply the Design of Experiments (DoE) method to study and to obtain a predictive model of any marketed monocrystalline photovoltaic (mc-PV) module. This technique allows us to have a mathematical model that represents the predicted responses depending upon input factors and experimental data. Therefore, the DoE model for characterization and modeling of mc-PV module behavior can be obtained by just performing a set of experimental trials. The DoE model of the mc-PV panel evaluates the predictive maximum power, as a function of irradiation and temperature in a bounded domain of study for inputs. For the mc-PV panel, the predictive model for both one level and two levels were developed taking into account both influences of the main effect and the interactive effects on the considered factors. The DoE method is then implemented by developing a code under Matlab software. The code allows us to simulate, characterize, and validate the predictive model of the mc-PV panel. The calculated results were compared to the experimental data, errors were estimated, and an accurate validation of the predictive models was evaluated by the surface response. Finally, we conclude that the predictive models reproduce the experimental trials and are defined within a good accuracy.

Novel Biomarkers to Improve the Prediction of Cardiovascular Event Risk in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

van der Leeuw, Joep; Beulens, Joline W J; van Dieren, Susan; Schalkwijk, Casper G; Glatz, Jan F C; Hofker, Marten H; Verschuren, W M Monique; Boer, Jolanda M A; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J; Peelen, Linda M; van der Schouw, Yvonne T

2016-05-31

We evaluated the ability of 23 novel biomarkers representing several pathophysiological pathways to improve the prediction of cardiovascular event (CVE) risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus beyond traditional risk factors. We used data from 1002 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Second Manifestations of ARTertial disease (SMART) study and 288 patients from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-NL (EPIC-NL). The associations of 23 biomarkers (adiponectin, C-reactive protein, epidermal-type fatty acid binding protein, heart-type fatty acid binding protein, basic fibroblast growth factor, soluble FMS-like tyrosine kinase-1, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and -3, matrix metalloproteinase [MMP]-1, MMP-3, MMP-9, N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide, osteopontin, osteonectin, osteocalcin, placental growth factor, serum amyloid A, E-selectin, P-selectin, tissue inhibitor of MMP-1, thrombomodulin, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, and vascular endothelial growth factor) with CVE risk were evaluated by using Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusting for traditional risk factors. The incremental predictive performance was assessed with use of the c-statistic and net reclassification index (NRI; continuous and based on 10-year risk strata 0-10%, 10-20%, 20-30%, >30%). A multimarker model was constructed comprising those biomarkers that improved predictive performance in both cohorts. N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide, osteopontin, and MMP-3 were the only biomarkers significantly associated with an increased risk of CVE and improved predictive performance in both cohorts. In SMART, the combination of these biomarkers increased the c-statistic with 0.03 (95% CI 0.01-0.05), and the continuous NRI was 0.37 (95% CI 0.21-0.52). In EPIC-NL, the multimarker model increased the c-statistic with 0.03 (95% CI 0.00-0.03), and the continuous NRI was 0.44 (95% CI 0.23-0.66). Based on risk strata, the NRI was 0.12 (95% CI 0.03-0.21) in SMART and 0.07 (95% CI -0.04-0.17) in EPIC-NL. Of the 23 evaluated biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways, N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide, osteopontin, MMP-3, and their combination improved CVE risk prediction in 2 separate cohorts of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus beyond traditional risk factors. However, the number of patients reclassified to a different risk stratum was limited. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

Femoral and carotid subclinical atherosclerosis association with risk factors and coronary calcium: the AWHS study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

BACKGROUND: Early subclinical atherosclerosis has been mainly researched in carotid arteries. The potential value of femoral arteries for improving the predictive capacity of traditional risk factors is an understudied area. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the association of subclinical ca...

Abiotic factors influencing deer browsing in West Virginia

Treesearch

Tyler A. Campbell; Benjamin R. Laseter; W. Mark Ford; Richard H. Odom; Karl V. Miller

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of woody browse availability and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) use among clearcut interiors, skidder trail edges, and mature forest and an evaluation of the relative importance of aboitic factors in predicting browsing pressure within regenerating clearcuts in the central Appalachians of West Virginia. We sampled...

Construct measurement quality improves predictive accuracy in violence risk assessment: an illustration using the personality assessment inventory.

PubMed

Hendry, Melissa C; Douglas, Kevin S; Winter, Elizabeth A; Edens, John F

2013-01-01

Much of the risk assessment literature has focused on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools. However, these tools often comprise a list of risk factors that are themselves complex constructs, and focusing on the quality of measurement of individual risk factors may improve the predictive validity of the tools. The present study illustrates this concern using the Antisocial Features and Aggression scales of the Personality Assessment Inventory (Morey, 1991). In a sample of 1,545 prison inmates and offenders undergoing treatment for substance abuse (85% male), we evaluated (a) the factorial validity of the ANT and AGG scales, (b) the utility of original ANT and AGG scales and newly derived ANT and AGG scales for predicting antisocial outcomes (recidivism and institutional infractions), and (c) whether items with a stronger relationship to the underlying constructs (higher factor loadings) were in turn more strongly related to antisocial outcomes. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) indicated that ANT and AGG items were not structured optimally in these data in terms of correspondence to the subscale structure identified in the PAI manual. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted on a random split-half of the sample to derive optimized alternative factor structures, and cross-validated in the second split-half using CFA. Four-factor models emerged for both the ANT and AGG scales, and, as predicted, the size of item factor loadings was associated with the strength with which items were associated with institutional infractions and community recidivism. This suggests that the quality by which a construct is measured is associated with its predictive strength. Implications for risk assessment are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combination of c-reactive protein and squamous cell carcinoma antigen in predicting postoperative prognosis for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

PubMed

Feng, Ji-Feng; Chen, Sheng; Yang, Xun

2017-09-08

We initially proposed a useful and novel prognostic model, named CCS [Combination of c-reactive protein (CRP) and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC)], for predicting the postoperative survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Two hundred and fifty-two patients with resectable ESCC were included in this retrospective study. A logistic regression was performed and yielded a logistic equation. The CCS was calculated by the combined CRP and SCC. The optimal cut-off value for CCS was evaluated by X-tile program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the predictive factors. In addition, a novel nomogram model was also performed to predict the prognosis for patients with ESCC. In the current study, CCS was calculated as CRP+6.33 SCC according to the logistic equation. The optimal cut-off value was 15.8 for CCS according to the X-tile program. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that high CCS group had a significantly poor 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) than low CCS group (10.3% vs. 47.3%, P <0.001). According to multivariate analyses, CCS ( P =0.004), but not CRP ( P =0.466) or SCC ( P =0.926), was an independent prognostic factor. A nomogram could be more accuracy for CSS (Harrell's c-index: 0.70). The CCS is a usefull and independent predictive factor in patients with ESCC.

Accuracy of fetal sex determination on ultrasound examination in the first trimester of pregnancy.

PubMed

Manzanares, Sebastián; Benítez, Adara; Naveiro-Fuentes, Mariña; López-Criado, María Setefilla; Sánchez-Gila, Mar

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and success rate of sex determination on transabdominal sonographic examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation and to identify factors influencing accuracy. In this prospective observational evaluation of 672 fetuses between 11 weeks' and 13 weeks + 6 days' gestational age (GA), we determined fetal sex according to the angle of the genital tubercle viewed on the midsagittal plane. We also analyzed maternal, fetal, and operator factors possibly influencing the accuracy of the determination. Fetal sex determination was feasible in 608 of the 672 fetuses (90.5%), and the prediction was correct in 532 of those 608 cases (87.5%). Fetal sex was more accurately predicted as the fetal crown-rump length (CRL), and GA increased and was less accurately predicted as the maternal body mass index increased. A CRL greater than 55.7 mm, a GA more than 12 weeks + 2 days, and a body mass index below 23.8 were identified as the best cutoff values for sex prediction. None of the other analyzed factors influenced the feasibility or accuracy of sex determination. The sex of a fetus can be accurately determined on sonographic examination in the first trimester of pregnancy; the accuracy of this prediction is influenced by the fetal CRL and GA and by the maternal body mass index. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Ultrasound 44:272-277, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determinants of work ability and its predictive value for disability.

PubMed

Alavinia, S M; de Boer, A G E M; van Duivenbooden, J C; Frings-Dresen, M H W; Burdorf, A

2009-01-01

Maintaining the ability of workers to cope with physical and psychosocial demands at work becomes increasingly important in prolonging working life. To analyse the effects of work-related factors and individual characteristics on work ability and to determine the predictive value of work ability on receiving a work-related disability pension. A longitudinal study was conducted among 850 construction workers aged 40 years and older, with average follow-up period of 23 months. Disability was defined as receiving a disability pension, granted to workers unable to continue working in their regular job. Work ability was assessed using the work ability index (WAI). Associations between work-related factors and individual characteristics with work ability at baseline were evaluated using linear regression analysis, and Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of work ability for disability. Work-related factors were associated with a lower work ability at baseline, but had little prognostic value for disability during follow-up. The hazard ratios for disability among workers with a moderate and poor work ability at baseline were 8 and 32, respectively. All separate scales in the WAI had predictive power for future disability with the highest influence of current work ability in relation to job demands and lowest influence of diseases diagnosed by a physician. A moderate or poor work ability was highly predictive for receiving a disability pension. Preventive measures should facilitate a good balance between work performance and health in order to prevent quitting labour participation.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

Histologic assessment of tumor budding in preoperative biopsies to predict nodal metastasis in squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue and floor of the mouth.

PubMed

Seki, Mai; Sano, Takaaki; Yokoo, Satoshi; Oyama, Tetsunari

2016-04-01

In squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the tongue and the floor of the mouth (FOM), it is important to predict lymph node metastasis, including occult metastasis, before operating. The purpose of this study was for us to determine practical histopathologic parameters as predictive factors for lymph node metastasis in preoperative SCC biopsy specimens. We examined 91 cases of SCC for conventional histopathologic assessment and a new factor, tumor budding, and their relationship with lymph node metastasis. Significant factors via univariate analysis (p < .01) were budding (score ≥3) and tumor depth (≥3 mm) and these were associated with lymph node metastasis. Moreover, both budding and tumor depth significantly correlated with relapse-free survival; however, evaluating biopsy specimens often proved inaccurate for predicting true tumor depth of cancer invasion. Tumor budding using immunohistochemistry for cytokeratin should be added to routine histologic assessments as a new criterion factoring into the decision as to whether neck dissection is indicated. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E1582-E1590, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of factors affecting the edge formability of two hot rolled multiphase steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Monideepa; Tiwari, Sumit; Bhattacharya, Basudev

2018-02-01

In this study, the effect of various factors on the hole expansion ratio and hence on the edge formability of two hot rolled multiphase steels, one with a ferrite-martensite microstructure and the other with a ferrite-bainite microstructure, was investigated through systematic microstructural and mechanical characterization. The study revealed that the microstructure of the steels, which determines their strain hardening capacity and fracture resistance, is the principal factor controlling edge formability. The influence of other factors such as tensile strength, ductility, anisotropy, and thickness, though present, are secondary. A critical evaluation of the available empirical models for hole expansion ratio prediction is also presented.

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

PubMed

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

A risk-based approach to management of leachables utilizing statistical analysis of extractables.

PubMed

Stults, Cheryl L M; Mikl, Jaromir; Whelehan, Oliver; Morrical, Bradley; Duffield, William; Nagao, Lee M

2015-04-01

To incorporate quality by design concepts into the management of leachables, an emphasis is often put on understanding the extractable profile for the materials of construction for manufacturing disposables, container-closure, or delivery systems. Component manufacturing processes may also impact the extractable profile. An approach was developed to (1) identify critical components that may be sources of leachables, (2) enable an understanding of manufacturing process factors that affect extractable profiles, (3) determine if quantitative models can be developed that predict the effect of those key factors, and (4) evaluate the practical impact of the key factors on the product. A risk evaluation for an inhalation product identified injection molding as a key process. Designed experiments were performed to evaluate the impact of molding process parameters on the extractable profile from an ABS inhaler component. Statistical analysis of the resulting GC chromatographic profiles identified processing factors that were correlated with peak levels in the extractable profiles. The combination of statistically significant molding process parameters was different for different types of extractable compounds. ANOVA models were used to obtain optimal process settings and predict extractable levels for a selected number of compounds. The proposed paradigm may be applied to evaluate the impact of material composition and processing parameters on extractable profiles and utilized to manage product leachables early in the development process and throughout the product lifecycle.

Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

Prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with stage III and IV colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hyun; Lee, Jun Yeop; Kim, Hae Koo; Lee, Jin Wook; Jung, Sung Gyu; Jung, Kyoungwon; Kim, Sung Eun; Moon, Won; Park, Moo In; Park, Seun Ja

2017-01-01

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS Between April 1996 and December 2010, medical records from a total of 1868 patients with CRC were retrospectively reviewed. The values of simple inflammatory markers including NLR and PLR in predicting the long-term outcomes of these patients were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. RESULTS The median follow-up duration was 46 mo (interquartile range, 22-73). The estimation of NLR and PLR was based on the time of diagnosis. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) were independent risk factors predicting poor long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. However, high NLR and high PLR were not prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II CRC. CONCLUSION In this study, we identified that high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) are useful prognostic factors to predict long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. PMID:28210087

POSSUM and P-POSSUM for risk assessment in general surgery in the elderly.

PubMed

Igari, Kimihiro; Ochiai, Takanori; Yamazaki, Shigeru

2013-09-01

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) use preoperative and intraoperative factors to evaluate risk. We examined our surgical results to investigate predictive factors for morbidity and mortality, and evaluate the accuracy of the POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Patients (n = 593) aged ≥80 years, undergoing general surgical procedures were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors. The predicted outcomes using POSSUM and P-POSSUM were also compared with actual outcomes. Physiological score (PS) and operative severity score (OS) were independent predictors of morbidity and mortality. Using POSSUM, the observed/expected (O/E) morbidity ratio was 1.44 and O/E mortality ratio was 0.98. Using P-POSSUM, the O/E mortality ratio was 1.0. Even though POSSUM tended to underestimate the morbidity rate, POSSUM and P-POSSUM accurately predicted the mortality rate after general surgical procedures.

The National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study: Retention Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orwin, Rob; Williams, Valerie

This study focuses on programmatic factors that predict retention for individuals in drug and alcohol treatment programs through secondary analysis of data from the National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study (NTIES). It addresses the relationships between completion rates, lengths of stay, and treatment modality. It examines the effect of…

Extrinsic and Intrinsic Help-Seeking Motivation in the Assessment of Cognitive Decline.

PubMed

Haussmann, Robert; Mayer-Pelinski, René; Borchardt, Maike; Beier, Fabrice; Helling, Franziska; Buthut, Maria; Meissner, Gisa; Lange, Jan; Zweiniger, Anne; Donix, Markus

2018-06-01

Diagnostic assessments for dementia include the evaluation of subjective memory impairment, dementia worries, or depressive symptoms. Data on the predictive value of these factors remain unclear, and varying help-seeking behavior may contribute to this finding. We investigate whether differentiating help-seeking motivation from other psychological factors associated with cognitive impairment would enhance the prediction of diagnostic outcomes in a memory clinic. We obtained information on help-seeking motivation from 171 patients who underwent routine diagnostic assessments. Utilizing a discriminant correspondence analysis, our results indicate that extrinsic motivation increases the likelihood of receiving a dementia diagnosis, whereas depression or the duration of deficits carries discriminatory information to further guide the differentiation of prodromal dementia. Recognizing motivational aspects of help-seeking behavior can complement the clinical evaluation of cognitive performance.

Considerations in Spinal Fusion Surgery for Chronic Lumbar Pain: Psychosocial Factors, Rating Scales, and Perioperative Patient Education-A Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Gaudin, Daniel; Krafcik, Brianna M; Mansour, Tarek R; Alnemari, Ahmed

2017-02-01

Despite widespread use of lumbar spinal fusion as a treatment for back pain, outcomes remain variable. Optimizing patient selection can help to reduce adverse outcomes. This literature review was conducted to better understand factors associated with optimal postoperative results after lumbar spinal fusion for chronic back pain and current tools used for evaluation. The PubMed database was searched for clinical trials related to psychosocial determinants of outcome after lumbar spinal fusion surgery; evaluation of commonly used patient subjective outcome measures; and perioperative cognitive, behavioral, and educational therapies. Reference lists of included studies were also searched by hand for additional studies meeting inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients' perception of good health before surgery and low cardiovascular comorbidity predict improved postoperative physical functional capacity and greater patient satisfaction. Depression, tobacco use, and litigation predict poorer outcomes after lumbar fusion. Incorporation of cognitive-behavioral therapy perioperatively can address these psychosocial risk factors and improve outcomes. The 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, European Quality of Life five dimensions questionnaire, visual analog pain scale, brief pain inventory, and Oswestry Disability Index can provide specific feedback to track patient progress and are important to understand when evaluating the current literature. This review summarizes current information and explains commonly used assessment tools to guide clinicians in decision making when caring for patients with lower back pain. When determining a treatment algorithm, physicians must consider predictive psychosocial factors. Use of perioperative cognitive-behavioral therapy and patient education can improve outcomes after lumbar spinal fusion. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy: prospective evaluation and relation with early hypocalcemia.

PubMed

D'Alessandro, Nicola; Tramutola, Giuseppe; Fasano, Giovanni Michele; Gilio, Francesco; Iside, Giovanni; Izzo, Maria Lucia; Loffredo, Andrea; Pici, Mariano; Pinto, Margherita; Tramontano, Salvatore; Citro, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

Definitive hypoparathyrodism (hypo-PTH) represents one of the most dangerous complication after total thyroidectomy. Partial or total lesion or accidental removal of parathyroid glands is an unpredictable adverse event, although real incidence is not well defined, such as management of this deficit. We started a prospective evaluation of patients treated with total thyroidectomy in our centre, to identify incidence of hypo-PTH, symptomatic or not, in relation to incidence of early postoperative hypocalcemia in our experience. We prospectively evaluated 177 patients treated for benign and malign pathology, measuring calcium before surgery and calcium and PTH at least three months after surgery. Postoperative hypocalcemia was observed in 37.3% of cases. Eight patients (4.5% of cohort) presented low level of PTH, at mean follow-up of 9.1 months. Positive predictive value for postoperative hypocalcemia was 12.1%, while negative predictive was 95.4%; confirming high sensitivity (100%) and low specificity (65.4%) for detecting hypo-PTH. All patients with late hypo-PTH presented hypocalcemia on early analysis, while no case with normal postoperative calcemia accounted with hypo-PTH: this may indicate calcemia as valid prognostic factor of good gland production, when is in the range. Moreover, isolated analysis is too limited to determine real predictability. Technical standardization represents the best method for prevention of hypo-PTH. Early hypocalcemia is a prognostic factor, even with a low specificity, of deficit of PTH-production. This observation must be related to other known prognostic factors. Postoperative normal calcemia should be a positive prognostic factor of an acceptable PTHfunction, supported by large cohorts. Hypocalcemia, Parathormone, Thyroidectomy.

Strategies to predict rheumatoid arthritis development in at-risk populations

PubMed Central

van der Helm-van Mil, Annette H.

2016-01-01

The development of RA is conceived as a multiple hit process and the more hits that are acquired, the greater the risk of developing clinically apparent RA. Several at-risk phases have been described, including the presence of genetic and environmental factors, RA-related autoantibodies and biomarkers and symptoms. Intervention in these preclinical phases may be more effective compared with intervention in the clinical phase. One prerequisite for preventive strategies is the ability to estimate an individual’s risk adequately. This review evaluates the ability to predict the risk of RA in the various preclinical stages. Present data suggest that a combination of genetic and environmental factors is helpful to identify persons at high risk of RA among first-degree relatives. Furthermore, a combination of symptoms, antibody characteristics and environmental factors has been shown to be relevant for risk prediction in seropositive arthralgia patients. Large prospective studies are needed to validate and improve risk prediction in preclinical disease stages. PMID:25096602

Carotid intima media thickness and plaques can predict the occurrence of ischemic cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Prati, Patrizio; Tosetto, Alberto; Vanuzzo, Diego; Bader, Giovanni; Casaroli, Marco; Canciani, Luigi; Castellani, Sergio; Touboul, Pierre-Jean

2008-09-01

The clinical usefulness of noninvasive measurement of carotid intima media thickness and plaque visualization in the general population is still uncertain. We evaluated the age-specific incidence rates of cerebrovascular events in a cohort of 1348 subjects randomly taken from the census list of San Daniele Township and followed for a mean period of 12.7 years. The association among common carotid intima media thickness, measured at baseline, arterial risk factors, and incidence of ischemic cerebrovascular events was modeled using Poisson regression. The predictive ability of common carotid intima media thickness over arterial risk factors (summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score) was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. During the follow-up, 115 subjects developed nonfatal ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or vascular death, which were the predefined study end points. After adjustment for age and sex, hypertension, diabetes, common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm, and carotid plaques were all independent risk factors for development of vascular events. Inclusion of carotid findings (presence of common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm or carotid plaques) resulted in a predictive power higher than Framingham Stroke Risk Score alone only on for those subjects with a Framingham Stroke Risk Score over 20%. Although common carotid intima media thickness and presence of carotid plaques are known to be risk factors for the development of vascular events and to be independent from the conventional risk factors summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, their contribution to individual risk prediction is limited. Further studies will be required to address the role of carotid ultrasonography in the primary prevention of high-risk subjects.

Stratifying risk factors for multidrug-resistant pathogens in hospitalized patients coming from the community with pneumonia.

PubMed

Aliberti, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Marta; Zanaboni, Anna Maria; Cosentini, Roberto; Brambilla, Anna Maria; Seghezzi, Sonia; Tarsia, Paolo; Mantero, Marco; Blasi, Francesco

2012-02-15

 Not all risk factors for acquiring multidrug-resistant (MDR) organisms are equivalent in predicting pneumonia caused by resistant pathogens in the community. We evaluated risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria in patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Our evaluation was based on actual infection with a resistant pathogen and clinical outcome during hospitalization.  An observational, prospective study was conducted on consecutive patients coming from the community who were hospitalized with pneumonia. Data on admission and during hospitalization were collected. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria independently associated with the actual presence of a resistant pathogen and in-hospital mortality.  Among the 935 patients enrolled in the study, 473 (51%) had at least 1 risk factor for acquiring MDR bacteria on admission. Of all risk factors, hospitalization in the preceding 90 days (odds ratio [OR], 4.87 95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.90-12.4]; P = .001) and residency in a nursing home (OR, 3.55 [95% CI, 1.12-11.24]; P = .031) were independent predictors for an actual infection with a resistant pathogen. A score able to predict pneumonia caused by a resistant pathogen was computed, including comorbidities and risk factors for MDR. Hospitalization in the preceding 90 days and residency in a nursing home were also independent predictors for in-hospital mortality.  Risk factors for acquiring MDR bacteria should be weighted differently, and a probabilistic approach to identifying resistant pathogens among patients coming from the community with pneumonia should be embraced.

The predictive factors of α1-D/A adrenoceptor antagonist, naftopidil, dose increase therapy for male lower urinary tract symptoms caused by benign prostatic hyperplasia: INFORM study.

PubMed

Tanuma, Yasushi; Tanaka, Yoshinori; Takeyama, Ko; Okamoto, Tomoshi

2017-01-01

We evaluated the predictive factors which affect the efficacy of naftopidil 50 mg/day therapy and dose increase therapy to administration of 75 mg/day after an initial dose of 50 mg/day. A total of 92 patients with male lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia were administrated naftopidil 50 mg/day for 4 weeks (50 mg therapy). At week 4, the patients were divided into an effective and an ineffective group (Group E and Group I, respectively). For further 4 weeks, the dosage of naftopidil was increased to 75 mg/day in all patients. At week 8, the patients of Group E and Group I were divided into an effective and an ineffective group (Group EE, Group EI, Group IE, and Group II, respectively). Postvoid residual (PVR) urine volume at baseline was a predictive factor for efficacy of 50 mg therapy. In Group E, change in International Prostate Symptom Score storage symptoms subscore from baseline to week 4 was a predictive factor for efficacy of this dose increase therapy. In Group I, change in maximum flow rate from baseline to week 4 was a predictive factor for efficacy of this dose increase therapy. The short term of naftopidil 50 mg therapy was ineffective for the patients who had large PVR. The predictive factor of this dose increase therapy might be a dynamic variable in 50 mg/day of dose period, but not a baseline variable at the time of 75 mg/day dosage starts.

Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans

PubMed Central

Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M.; Rainey, Katy Martin

2016-01-01

Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. PMID:27317786

Operational Dust Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas;

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Risk factors for invasive fungal disease in critically ill adult patients: a systematic review.

PubMed

Muskett, Hannah; Shahin, Jason; Eyres, Gavin; Harvey, Sheila; Rowan, Kathy; Harrison, David

2011-01-01

Over 5,000 cases of invasive Candida species infections occur in the United Kingdom each year, and around 40% of these cases occur in critical care units. Invasive fungal disease (IFD) in critically ill patients is associated with increased morbidity and mortality at a cost to both the individual and the National Health Service. In this paper, we report the results of a systematic review performed to identify and summarise the important risk factors derived from published multivariable analyses, risk prediction models and clinical decision rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients to inform the primary data collection for the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation Study. An internet search was performed to identify articles which investigated risk factors, risk prediction models or clinical decisions rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients. Eligible articles were identified in a staged process and were assessed by two investigators independently. The methodological quality of the reporting of the eligible articles was assessed using a set of questions addressing both general and statistical methodologies. Thirteen articles met the inclusion criteria, of which eight articles examined risk factors, four developed a risk prediction model or clinical decision rule and one evaluated a clinical decision rule. Studies varied in terms of objectives, risk factors, definitions and outcomes. The following risk factors were found in multiple studies to be significantly associated with IFD: surgery, total parenteral nutrition, fungal colonisation, renal replacement therapy, infection and/or sepsis, mechanical ventilation, diabetes, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) or APACHE III score. Several other risk factors were also found to be statistically significant in single studies only. Risk factor selection process and modelling strategy also varied across studies, and sample sizes were inadequate for obtaining reliable estimates. This review shows a number of risk factors to be significantly associated with the development of IFD in critically ill adults. Methodological limitations were identified in the design and conduct of studies in this area, and caution should be used in their interpretation.

Risk factors for invasive fungal disease in critically ill adult patients: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Over 5,000 cases of invasive Candida species infections occur in the United Kingdom each year, and around 40% of these cases occur in critical care units. Invasive fungal disease (IFD) in critically ill patients is associated with increased morbidity and mortality at a cost to both the individual and the National Health Service. In this paper, we report the results of a systematic review performed to identify and summarise the important risk factors derived from published multivariable analyses, risk prediction models and clinical decision rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients to inform the primary data collection for the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation Study. Methods An internet search was performed to identify articles which investigated risk factors, risk prediction models or clinical decisions rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients. Eligible articles were identified in a staged process and were assessed by two investigators independently. The methodological quality of the reporting of the eligible articles was assessed using a set of questions addressing both general and statistical methodologies. Results Thirteen articles met the inclusion criteria, of which eight articles examined risk factors, four developed a risk prediction model or clinical decision rule and one evaluated a clinical decision rule. Studies varied in terms of objectives, risk factors, definitions and outcomes. The following risk factors were found in multiple studies to be significantly associated with IFD: surgery, total parenteral nutrition, fungal colonisation, renal replacement therapy, infection and/or sepsis, mechanical ventilation, diabetes, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) or APACHE III score. Several other risk factors were also found to be statistically significant in single studies only. Risk factor selection process and modelling strategy also varied across studies, and sample sizes were inadequate for obtaining reliable estimates. Conclusions This review shows a number of risk factors to be significantly associated with the development of IFD in critically ill adults. Methodological limitations were identified in the design and conduct of studies in this area, and caution should be used in their interpretation. PMID:22126425

Psychometric analysis of the Chinese version of Social Adaptation Self-evaluation Scale (C-SASS).

PubMed

Tse, Wai S; Bond, Alyson J

2007-12-03

There are only a very limited number of scales available to measure social motivation in Chinese. Studying social motivation might help researchers to understand more of the relationship between social skills and depression. An English version of the Social Adaptation Self-evaluation Scale (SASS) is a valid measure of social motivation. A Chinese translated version of the SASS was validated in 208 healthy volunteers, who were also evaluated with the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Principal Component Analysis showed the C-SASS had a one-factor solution. The Cronbach alpha of the scale was 0.97, but no item redundancy was found. The C-SASS was negatively associated with the BDI (r=-0.39) as predicted. Furthermore, the C-SASS was positively associated with the Cooperativeness (r=0.34) and Self-directedness factors (r=0.37), but negatively associated with the Harm Avoidance factor (r=-0.36) of the TCI as predicted. C-SASS scores were not associated with the Novelty Seeking or Self-transcendence factors of the TCI. Therefore, the C-SASS had adequate construct validity, and internal consistency. The results also supported the external validity, convergent validity and divergent validity of the C-SASS.

Is It Safe? Reliability and Validity of Structured versus Unstructured Child Safety Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartelink, Cora; de Kwaadsteniet, Leontien; ten Berge, Ingrid J.; Witteman, Cilia L. M.

2017-01-01

Background: The LIRIK, an instrument for the assessment of child safety and risk, is designed to improve assessments by guiding professionals through a structured evaluation of relevant signs, risk factors, and protective factors. Objective: We aimed to assess the interrater agreement and the predictive validity of professionals' judgments made…

Analyzing the Validity of the Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory for Low-Income Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawson, Michael A.; Alameda-Lawson, Tania; Byrnes, Edward

2017-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the construct and predictive validity of the Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory (AAPI-2). Methods: The validity of the AAPI-2 was evaluated using multiple statistical methods, including exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and latent class analysis. These analyses were…

Temperature effect on stress concentration around circular hole in a composite material specimen representative of X-29A forward-swept wing aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Hsien-Yang

1988-01-01

The theory of anisotropic elasticity was used to evaluate the anisotropic stress concentration factors of a composite laminated plate containing a small circular hole. This advanced composite was used to manufacture the X-29A forward-swept wing. It was found for composite material, that the anisotropic stress concentration is no longer a constant, and that the locations of maximum tangential stress points could shift by changing the fiber orientation with respect to the loading axis. The analysis showed that through the lamination process, the stress concentration factor could be reduced drastically, and therefore the structural performance could be improved. Both the mixture rule approach and the constant strain approach were used to calculate the stress concentration factor of room temperature. The results predicted by the mixture rule approach were about twenty percent deviate from the experimental data. However, the results predicted by the constant strain approach matched the testing data very well. This showed the importance of the inplane shear effect on the evaluation of the stress concentration factor for the X-29A composite plate.

Analysis of clinically important factors on the performance of advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee joints based on 899 trial fittings

PubMed Central

Hahn, Andreas; Lang, Michael; Stuckart, Claudia

2016-01-01

Abstract The objective of this work is to evaluate whether clinically important factors may predict an individual's capability to utilize the functional benefits provided by an advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee component. This retrospective cross-sectional cohort analysis investigated the data of above knee amputees captured during routine trial fittings. Prosthetists rated the performance indicators showing the functional benefits of the advanced maneuvering capabilities of the device. Subjects were asked to rate their perception. Simple and multiple linear and logistic regression was applied. Data from 899 subjects with demographics typical for the population were evaluated. Ability to vary gait speed, perform toileting, and ascend stairs were identified as the most sensitive performance predictors. Prior C-Leg users showed benefits during advanced maneuvering. Variables showed plausible and meaningful effects, however, could not claim predictive power. Mobility grade showed the largest effect but also failed to be predictive. Clinical parameters such as etiology, age, mobility grade, and others analyzed here do not suffice to predict individual potential. Daily walking distance may pose a threshold value and be part of a predictive instrument. Decisions based solely on single parameters such as mobility grade rating or walking distance seem to be questionable. PMID:27828871

Analysis of clinically important factors on the performance of advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee joints based on 899 trial fittings.

PubMed

Hahn, Andreas; Lang, Michael; Stuckart, Claudia

2016-11-01

The objective of this work is to evaluate whether clinically important factors may predict an individual's capability to utilize the functional benefits provided by an advanced hydraulic, microprocessor-controlled exo-prosthetic knee component.This retrospective cross-sectional cohort analysis investigated the data of above knee amputees captured during routine trial fittings. Prosthetists rated the performance indicators showing the functional benefits of the advanced maneuvering capabilities of the device. Subjects were asked to rate their perception. Simple and multiple linear and logistic regression was applied.Data from 899 subjects with demographics typical for the population were evaluated. Ability to vary gait speed, perform toileting, and ascend stairs were identified as the most sensitive performance predictors. Prior C-Leg users showed benefits during advanced maneuvering. Variables showed plausible and meaningful effects, however, could not claim predictive power. Mobility grade showed the largest effect but also failed to be predictive.Clinical parameters such as etiology, age, mobility grade, and others analyzed here do not suffice to predict individual potential. Daily walking distance may pose a threshold value and be part of a predictive instrument. Decisions based solely on single parameters such as mobility grade rating or walking distance seem to be questionable.

Predictive value of the APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and GCS scoring systems in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska, Iwona; Bernas, Szymon; Łojko, Piotr; Piechota, Anna; Piechota, Mariusz

2016-01-01

Scoring systems in critical care patients are essential for predicting of the patient outcome and evaluating the therapy. In this study, we determined the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scoring systems in the prediction of mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe purulent bacterial meningitis. We retrospectively analysed data from 98 adult patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis who were admitted to the single ICU between March 2006 and September 2015. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis: APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and GCS scores, and the lengths of ICU stay and hospital stay. The independent risk factors of patient death in multivariate analysis were the SAPS II score, the length of ICU stay and the length of hospital stay. In the prediction of mortality according to the area under the curve, the SAPS II score had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE II, GCS and SOFA scores. For the prediction of mortality in a patient with severe purulent bacterial meningitis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy.

Automated array assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, B. F.

1976-01-01

Manufacturing techniques are evaluated using expenses based on experience and studying basic cost factors for each step to evaluate expenses from a first-principles point of view. A formal cost accounting procedure is developed which is used throughout the study for cost comparisons. The first test of this procedure is a comparison of its predicted costs for array module manufacturing with costs from a study which is based on experience factors. A manufacturing cost estimate for array modules of $10/W is based on present-day manufacturing techniques, expenses, and materials costs.

Development and application of a screening model for evaluating bioenhanced dissolution in DNAPL source zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phelan, Thomas J.; Abriola, Linda M.; Gibson, Jenny L.; Smits, Kathleen M.; Christ, John A.

2015-12-01

In-situ bioremediation, a widely applied treatment technology for source zones contaminated with dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs), has proven economical and reasonably efficient for long-term management of contaminated sites. Successful application of this remedial technology, however, requires an understanding of the complex interaction of transport, mass transfer, and biotransformation processes. The bioenhancement factor, which represents the ratio of DNAPL mass transfer under microbially active conditions to that which would occur under abiotic conditions, is commonly used to quantify the effectiveness of a particular bioremediation remedy. To date, little research has been directed towards the development and validation of methods to predict bioenhancement factors under conditions representative of real sites. This work extends an existing, first-order, bioenhancement factor expression to systems with zero-order and Monod kinetics, representative of many source-zone scenarios. The utility of this model for predicting the bioenhancement factor for previously published laboratory and field experiments is evaluated. This evaluation demonstrates the applicability of these simple bioenhancement factors for preliminary experimental design and analysis, and for assessment of dissolution enhancement in ganglia-contaminated source zones. For ease of application, a set of nomographs is presented that graphically depicts the dependence of bioenhancement factor on physicochemical properties. Application of these nomographs is illustrated using data from a well-documented field site. Results suggest that this approach can successfully capture field-scale, as well as column-scale, behavior. Sensitivity analyses reveal that bioenhanced dissolution will critically depend on in-situ biomass concentrations.

What predicts nurse faculty members' intent to stay in the academic organization? A structural equation model of a national survey of nursing faculty.

PubMed

Candela, Lori; Gutierrez, Antonio P; Keating, Sarah

2015-04-01

To investigate the relations among several factors regarding the academic context within a nationally representative sample of U.S. nursing faculty. Correlational design using structural equation modeling to explore the predictive nature of several factors related to the academic organization and the work life of nursing faculty. A survey was used to evaluate several aspects of the work life of U.S. nursing faculty members. Nursing faculty members in academic organizations across the U.S. serving at either CCNE- or NLNAC-accredited institutions of higher education. Standard confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the validity of a proposed measurement model, and structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the validity of a structural/latent variable model. Several direct and indirect effects were observed among the factors under investigation. Of special importance, perceptions of nurse administration's support and perceived teaching expertise positively predicted U.S. nursing faculty members' intent to stay in the academic organization. Understanding the way that nursing faculty members' perceptions of the various factors common to the academic context interact with intent to stay in the academic organization is essential for faculty and nursing administrators. This information can assist administrators in obtaining more resources for faculty development to lobby for additional faculty in order to meet the teaching, research, and service missions of the organization; and to personalize relationships with individual faculty members to understand their needs and acknowledge their efforts. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A re-evaluation of PETROTOX for predicting acute and chronic toxicity of petroleum substances.

PubMed

Redman, Aaron D; Parkerton, Thomas F; Leon Paumen, Miriam; Butler, Josh D; Letinski, Daniel J; den Haan, Klass

2017-08-01

The PETROTOX model was developed to perform aquatic hazard assessment of petroleum substances based on substance composition. The model relies on the hydrocarbon block method, which is widely used for conducting petroleum substance risk assessments providing further justification for evaluating model performance. Previous work described this model and provided a preliminary calibration and validation using acute toxicity data for limited petroleum substance. The objective of the present study was to re-evaluate PETROTOX using expanded data covering both acute and chronic toxicity endpoints on invertebrates, algae, and fish for a wider range of petroleum substances. The results indicated that recalibration of 2 model parameters was required, namely, the algal critical target lipid body burden and the log octanol-water partition coefficient (K OW ) limit, used to account for reduced bioavailability of hydrophobic constituents. Acute predictions from the updated model were compared with observed toxicity data and found to generally be within a factor of 3 for algae and invertebrates but overestimated fish toxicity. Chronic predictions were generally within a factor of 5 of empirical data. Furthermore, PETROTOX predicted acute and chronic hazard classifications that were consistent or conservative in 93 and 84% of comparisons, respectively. The PETROTOX model is considered suitable for the purpose of characterizing petroleum substance hazard in substance classification and risk assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2245-2252. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Predictive Factors for Response of Intracranial Dural Arteriovenous Fistulas to Transarterial Onyx Embolization: Angiographic Subgroup Analysis of Treatment Outcomes.

PubMed

Kim, Byungjun; Jeon, Pyoung; Kim, Keonha; Kim, Sungtae; Kim, Hyungjin; Byun, Hong Sik; Jo, Kyung-Il

2016-04-01

Endovascular treatment using Onyx has been increasingly used to treat intracranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs). This study evaluated predictive factors for favorable treatment outcome in patients with intracranial noncavernous DAVFs treated by transarterial Onyx embolization. Between August 2008 and August 2014, 55 patients who underwent transarterial Onyx embolization for noncavernous DAVFs were retrospectively reviewed. Patients' demographic, clinical, and procedural data were analyzed to find statistically significant predictive factors for favorable treatment outcomes after Onyx embolization. Fistulas were classified angiographically according to the relationship between fistulas and dural venous sinuses and the presence of leptomeningeal venous reflux. Sixty-eight Onyx embolizations were performed in 55 patients. Immediate angiographic cure was achieved in 28 patients, and 14 of 27 patients with residual shunts showed progressive occlusion at follow-up imaging studies. Therefore, the overall favorable treatment outcome was 76.4% (42/55). The remaining 13 patients (23.6%) showed persistent residual shunts, and 3 (5.5%) of them showed aggravation of residual lesion on follow-up studies. Of 25 patients with non-sinus fistulas, 23 patients (92%) showed favorable treatment outcomes, and 19 of 30 patients (63.3%) with sinus fistulas showed favorable outcomes. Among the evaluated variables, non-sinus DAVFs was a statistically significant predictive factor for favorable response to transarterial Onyx embolization (P < 0.05). Transarterial Onyx embolization is a highly effective treatment method for non-sinus DAVFs. Careful consideration of angiographic features and multimodal embolization strategies are required for treatment of sinus DAVFs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of participation in sports after hip and knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Williams, Daniel H; Greidanus, Nelson V; Masri, Bassam A; Duncan, Clive P; Garbuz, Donald S

2012-02-01

While the primary objective of joint arthroplasty is to improve patient quality of life, pain, and function, younger active patients often demand a return to higher function that includes sporting activity. Knowledge of rates and predictors of return to sports will help inform expectations in patients anticipating return to sports after joint arthroplasty. We measured the rate of sports participation at 1 year using the UCLA activity score and explored 11 variables, including choice of procedure/prosthesis, that might predict return to a high level of sporting activity, when controlling for potential confounding variables. We retrospectively evaluated 736 patients who underwent primary metal-on-polyethylene THA, metal-on-metal THA, hip resurfacing arthroplasty, revision THA, primary TKA, unicompartmental knee arthroplasty, and revision TKA between May 2005 and June 2007. We obtained UCLA activity scores on all patients; we defined high activity as a UCLA score of 7 or more. We evaluated patient demographics (age, sex, BMI, comorbidity), quality of life (WOMAC score, Oxford Hip Score, SF-12 score), and surgeon- and procedural/implant-specific variables to identify factors associated with postoperative activity score. Minimum followup was 11 months (mean, 12.1 months; range, 11-13 months). Preoperative UCLA activity score, age, male sex, and BMI predicted high activity scores. The type of operation and implant characteristics did not predict return to high activity sports. Our data suggest patient-specific factors predict postoperative activity rather than factors specific to type of surgery, implant, or surgeon factors. Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Uptake of Predictive Genetic Testing and Cardiac Evaluation for Children at Risk for an Inherited Arrhythmia or Cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Christian, Susan; Atallah, Joseph; Clegg, Robin; Giuffre, Michael; Huculak, Cathleen; Dzwiniel, Tara; Parboosingh, Jillian; Taylor, Sherryl; Somerville, Martin

2018-02-01

Predictive genetic testing in minors should be considered when clinical intervention is available. Children who carry a pathogenic variant for an inherited arrhythmia or cardiomyopathy require regular cardiac screening and may be prescribed medication and/or be told to modify their physical activity. Medical genetics and pediatric cardiology charts were reviewed to identify factors associated with uptake of genetic testing and cardiac evaluation for children at risk for long QT syndrome, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. The data collected included genetic diagnosis, clinical symptoms in the carrier parent, number of children under 18 years of age, age of children, family history of sudden cardiac arrest/death, uptake of cardiac evaluation and if evaluated, phenotype for each child. We identified 97 at risk children from 58 families found to carry a pathogenic variant for one of these conditions. Sixty six percent of the families pursued genetic testing and 73% underwent cardiac screening when it was recommended. Declining predictive genetic testing was significantly associated with genetic specialist recommendation (p < 0.001) and having an asymptomatic carrier father (p = 0.006). Cardiac evaluation was significantly associated with uptake of genetic testing (p = 0.007). This study provides a greater understanding of factors associated with uptake of genetic testing and cardiac evaluation in children at risk of an inherited arrhythmia or cardiomyopathy. It also identifies a need to educate families about the importance of cardiac evaluation even in the absence of genetic testing.

Social cognition and functional capacity in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Thaler, Nicholas S; Sutton, Griffin P; Allen, Daniel N

2014-12-15

Social cognition is a functionally relevant predictor of capacity in schizophrenia (SZ), though research concerning its value for bipolar disorder (BD) is limited. The current investigation examined the relationship between two social cognitive factors and functional capacity in bipolar disorder. This study included 48 individuals with bipolar disorder (24 with psychotic features) and 30 patients with schizophrenia. Multiple regression controlling for estimated IQ scores was used to assess the predictive value of social cognitive factors on the UCSD Performance-Based Functional Skills Assessment (UPSA). Results found that for the bipolar with psychosis and schizophrenia groups, the social/emotion processing factor predicted the UPSA. The theory of mind factor only predicted the UPSA for the schizophrenia group.. Findings support the clinical utility of evaluating emotion processing in individuals with a history of psychosis. For BD, theory of mind may be better explained by a generalized cognitive deficit. In contrast, social/emotion processing may be linked to distinct neurobiological processes associated with psychosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Postoperative Respiratory Mortality and Morbidity in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

PubMed Central

Rajaei, Samira; Dabbagh, Ali

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Nowadays, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is considered to be one of the most common surgical procedures. This procedure has been the main topic in many clinical research studies, which have assessed the effect of the procedure on patients’ outcomes. Like other surgical procedures, this procedure is also accompanied by a number of unwanted complications, including those of the respiratory system. Since the respiratory system plays an integral role in defining the clinical outcome of patients, improvements in studies that can assess and predict clinical outcomes of the respiratory system, assume greater importance. There are a number of predictive models which can assess patients in the preoperative period and introduce a number of risk factors, which could be considered as prognostic factors for patients undergoing CABG. The respiratory system is among the clinical systems that are assessed in many prediction scoring systems. This review assesses the main studies which have evaluated the possible risk factors for postoperative respiratory mortality and morbidity, in patients undergoing CABG. PMID:24223339

Predictive factors of mortality within 30 days in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Lee, Yoo Jin; Min, Bo Ram; Kim, Eun Soo; Park, Kyung Sik; Cho, Kwang Bum; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Chung, Woo Jin; Hwang, Jae Seok; Jeon, Seong Woo

2016-01-01

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a common medical emergency that can be life threatening. This study evaluated predictive factors of 30-day mortality in patients with this condition. A prospective observational study was conducted at a single hospital between April 2010 and November 2012, and 336 patients with symptoms and signs of gastrointestinal bleeding were consecutively enrolled. Clinical characteristics and endoscopic findings were reviewed to identify potential factors associated with 30-day mortality. Overall, 184 patients were included in the study (men, 79.3%; mean age, 59.81 years), and 16 patients died within 30 days (8.7%). Multivariate analyses revealed that comorbidity of diabetes mellitus (DM) or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hypotension (systolic pressure < 90 mmHg) during hospitalization were significant predictive factors of 30-day mortality. Comorbidity of DM or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hemodynamic instability during hospitalization were predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with NVUGIB. These results will help guide the management of patients with this condition.

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

1974-01-01

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Predicting conformational ensembles and genome-wide transcription factor binding sites from DNA sequences.

PubMed

Andrabi, Munazah; Hutchins, Andrew Paul; Miranda-Saavedra, Diego; Kono, Hidetoshi; Nussinov, Ruth; Mizuguchi, Kenji; Ahmad, Shandar

2017-06-22

DNA shape is emerging as an important determinant of transcription factor binding beyond just the DNA sequence. The only tool for large scale DNA shape estimates, DNAshape was derived from Monte-Carlo simulations and predicts four broad and static DNA shape features, Propeller twist, Helical twist, Minor groove width and Roll. The contributions of other shape features e.g. Shift, Slide and Opening cannot be evaluated using DNAshape. Here, we report a novel method DynaSeq, which predicts molecular dynamics-derived ensembles of a more exhaustive set of DNA shape features. We compared the DNAshape and DynaSeq predictions for the common features and applied both to predict the genome-wide binding sites of 1312 TFs available from protein interaction quantification (PIQ) data. The results indicate a good agreement between the two methods for the common shape features and point to advantages in using DynaSeq. Predictive models employing ensembles from individual conformational parameters revealed that base-pair opening - known to be important in strand separation - was the best predictor of transcription factor-binding sites (TFBS) followed by features employed by DNAshape. Of note, TFBS could be predicted not only from the features at the target motif sites, but also from those as far as 200 nucleotides away from the motif.

Relationship between Anthropometric Measures and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Burgos, Miria Suzana; Burgos, Leandro Tibiriçá; Camargo, Marcelo Dias; Franke, Silvia Isabel Rech; Prá, Daniel; da Silva, Antônio Marcos Vargas; Borges, Tássia Silvana; Todendi, Pâmela Ferreira; Reckziegel, Miriam Beatris; Reuter, Cézane Priscila

2013-01-01

Background Obesity has been identified as an important risk factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, other factors, combined or not with obesity, can influence cardiovascular risk and should be considered in cardiovascular risk stratification in pediatrics. Objective To analyze the association between anthropometry measures and cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the determinants to changes in blood pressure (BP), and to propose a prediction equation to waist circumference (WC) in children and adolescents. Methods We evaluated 1,950 children and adolescents, aged 7 to 18 years. Visceral fat was assessed by WC and waist hip relationship, BP and body mass index (BMI). In a randomly selected subsample of these volunteers (n = 578), total cholesterol, glucose and triglycerides levels were evaluated. Results WC was positively correlated with BMI (r = 0.85; p < 0.001) and BP (SBP r = 0.45 and DBP = 0.37; p < 0.001). Glycaemia and triglycerides showed a weak correlation with WC (r = 0.110; p = 0.008 e r = 0.201; p < 0.001, respectively). Total cholesterol did not correlate with any of the variables. Age, BMI and WC were significant predictors on the regression models for BP (p < 0.001). We propose a WC prediction equation for children and adolescents: boys: y = 17.243 + 0.316 (height in cm); girls: y = 25.197 + 0.256 (height in cm). Conclusion WC is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and presents itself as a risk factor predictor of hypertension in children and adolescents. The WC prediction equation proposed by us should be tested in future studies. PMID:23979777

Factors predicting labor induction success: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Crane, Joan M G

2006-09-01

Because of the risk of failed induction of labor, a variety of maternal and fetal factors as well as screening tests have been suggested to predict labor induction success. Certain characteristics of the woman (including parity, age, weight, height and body mass index), and of the fetus (including birth weight and gestational age) are associated with the success of labor induction; with parous, young women who are taller and lower weight having a higher rate of induction success. Fetuses with a lower birth weight or increased gestational age are also associated with increased induction success. The condition of the cervix at the start of induction is an important predictor, with the modified Bishop score being a widely used scoring system. The most important element of the Bishop score is dilatation. Other predictors, including transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) and biochemical markers [including fetal fibronectin (fFN)] have been suggested. Meta-analyses of studies identified from MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE and published from 1990 to October 2005 were performed evaluating the use of TVUS and fFN in predicting labor induction success in women at term with singleton gestations. Both TVUS and Bishop score predicted successful induction [likelihood ratio (LR)=1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.51-2.20 and LR=2.10, 95%CI=1.67-2.64, respectively]. As well, fFN and Bishop score predicted successful induction (LR=1.49, 95%CI=1.20-1.85, and LR=2.62, 95%CI=1.88-3.64, respectively). Although TVUS and fFN predicted successful labor induction, neither has been shown to be superior to Bishop score. Further research is needed to evaluate these potential predictors and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), another potential biochemical marker.

Comparing sixteen scoring functions for predicting biological activities of ligands for protein targets.

PubMed

Xu, Weijun; Lucke, Andrew J; Fairlie, David P

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting relative binding affinities and biological potencies for ligands that interact with proteins remains a significant challenge for computational chemists. Most evaluations of docking and scoring algorithms have focused on enhancing ligand affinity for a protein by optimizing docking poses and enrichment factors during virtual screening. However, there is still relatively limited information on the accuracy of commercially available docking and scoring software programs for correctly predicting binding affinities and biological activities of structurally related inhibitors of different enzyme classes. Presented here is a comparative evaluation of eight molecular docking programs (Autodock Vina, Fitted, FlexX, Fred, Glide, GOLD, LibDock, MolDock) using sixteen docking and scoring functions to predict the rank-order activity of different ligand series for six pharmacologically important protein and enzyme targets (Factor Xa, Cdk2 kinase, Aurora A kinase, COX-2, pla2g2a, β Estrogen receptor). Use of Fitted gave an excellent correlation (Pearson 0.86, Spearman 0.91) between predicted and experimental binding only for Cdk2 kinase inhibitors. FlexX and GOLDScore produced good correlations (Pearson>0.6) for hydrophilic targets such as Factor Xa, Cdk2 kinase and Aurora A kinase. By contrast, pla2g2a and COX-2 emerged as difficult targets for scoring functions to predict ligand activities. Although possessing a high hydrophobicity in its binding site, β Estrogen receptor produced reasonable correlations using LibDock (Pearson 0.75, Spearman 0.68). These findings can assist medicinal chemists to better match scoring functions with ligand-target systems for hit-to-lead optimization using computer-aided drug design approaches. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High Proliferation Predicts Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Early Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Lluch, Ana; Ribelles, Nuria; Anton-Torres, Antonio; Sanchez-Rovira, Pedro; Albanell, Joan; Calvo, Lourdes; García-Asenjo, Jose Antonio Lopez; Palacios, Jose; Chacon, Jose Ignacio; Ruiz, Amparo; De la Haba-Rodriguez, Juan; Segui-Palmer, Miguel A.; Cirauqui, Beatriz; Margeli, Mireia; Plazaola, Arrate; Barnadas, Agusti; Casas, Maribel; Caballero, Rosalia; Carrasco, Eva; Rojo, Federico

2016-01-01

Background. In the neoadjuvant setting, changes in the proliferation marker Ki67 are associated with primary endocrine treatment efficacy, but its value as a predictor of response to chemotherapy is still controversial. Patients and Methods. We analyzed 262 patients with centralized basal Ki67 immunohistochemical evaluation derived from 4 GEICAM (Spanish Breast Cancer Group) clinical trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. The objective was to identify the optimal threshold for Ki67 using the receiver-operating characteristic curve method to maximize its predictive value for chemotherapy benefit. We also evaluated the predictive role of the defined Ki67 cutoffs for molecular subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Results. A basal Ki67 cutpoint of 50% predicted pathological complete response (pCR). Patients with Ki67 >50% achieved a pCR rate of 40% (36 of 91) versus a pCR rate of 19% in patients with Ki67 ≤50% (33 of 171) (p = .0004). Ki67 predictive value was especially relevant in ER-HER2− and ER-HER2+ patients (pCR rates of 42% and 64%, respectively, in patients with Ki67 >50% versus 15% and 45%, respectively, in patients with Ki67 ≤50%; p = .0337 and .3238, respectively). Both multivariate analyses confirmed the independent predictive value of the Ki67 cutpoint of 50%. Conclusion. Basal Ki67 proliferation index >50% should be considered an independent predictive factor for pCR reached after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, suggesting that cell proliferation is a phenomenon closely related to chemosensitivity. These findings could help to identify a group of patients with a potentially favorable long-term prognosis. Implications for Practice: The use of basal Ki67 status as a predictive factor of chemotherapy benefit could facilitate the identification of a patient subpopulation with high probability of achieving pathological complete response when treated with primary chemotherapy, and thus with a potentially favorable long-term prognosis. PMID:26786263

What makes the hedonic experience of a meal in a top restaurant special and retrievable in the long term? Meal-related, social and personality factors.

PubMed

Muñoz, Francisco; Hildebrandt, Andrea; Schacht, Annekathrin; Stürmer, Birgit; Bröcker, Felix; Martín-Loeches, Manuel; Sommer, Werner

2018-06-01

Knowing what makes a top gastronomy experience unique and retrievable in the long term is of interest for scientific and economic reasons. Recent attempts to isolate predictors of the hedonic evaluation of food have afforded several factors, such as individual and social attributes, or liking/disliking profiles. However, in these studies relevant variables have been examined in isolation without an integrative perspective. Here we investigated 80 guests enjoying a 23-course meal in a top gastronomy restaurant, in groups of four. Our main question concerned the factors driving the overall evaluation of the meal at its conclusion and after three months. To this aim we administered the Big Five Personality Inventory before the meal, dish-by-dish hedonic ratings, and a multi-dimensional Meal Experience Questionnaire (MEQ) at the end of the meal. Hedonic evaluations of the meal were collected immediately after the meal and three months later. Better immediate overall evaluations were predicted by both the number of peaks in dish-by-dish ratings and by positive ratings of the final dish. Both factors and the number of troughs were also critical for the long-term evaluation after three months. The MEQ dimensions overall interest, valence and distraction predicted immediate evaluations, while the long-term evaluations were determined by interest and high scores on the personality traits agreeableness and conscientiousness. High consistency of the hedonic ratings within quartets indicated the relevance of commensality for the meal experience. The present findings highlight the simultaneous relevance of food- and personality-related factors and commensality for a top gastronomy meal experience in the short and long-run. The uncovered relationships are of theoretical interest and for those involved in designing meals for consumers in various settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and Integration of Genetic Signature for Prediction Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Southern China

PubMed Central

Winkler, Cheryl A.; Li, Ji; Guan, Li; Tang, Minzhong; Liao, Jian; Deng, Hong; de Thé, Guy; Zeng, Yi; O'Brien, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Genetic factors, as well as environmental factors, play a role in development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to be associated with NPC. To confirm these genetic associations with NPC, two independent case-control studies from Southern China comprising 1166 NPC cases and 2340 controls were conducted. Seven SNPs in ITGA9 at 3p21.3 and 9 SNPs within the 6p21.3 HLA region were genotyped. To explore the potential clinical application of these genetic markers in NPC, we further evaluate the predictive/diagnostic role of significant SNPs by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results. The reported associations between ITGA9 variants and NPC were not replicated. Multiple loci of GABBR1, HLA-F, HLA-A, and HCG9 were statistically significant in both cohorts (P combined range from 5.96 × 10−17 to 0.02). We show for the first time that these factors influence NPC development independent of environmental risk factors. This study also indicated that the SNP alone cannot serve as a predictive/diagnostic marker for NPC. Integrating the most significant SNP with IgA antibodies status to EBV, which is presently used as screening/diagnostic marker for NPC in Chinese populations, did not improve the AUC estimate for diagnosis of NPC. PMID:25180181

Evaluation and integration of genetic signature for prediction risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Southern China.

PubMed

Guo, Xiuchan; Winkler, Cheryl A; Li, Ji; Guan, Li; Tang, Minzhong; Liao, Jian; Deng, Hong; de Thé, Guy; Zeng, Yi; O'Brien, Stephen J

2014-01-01

Genetic factors, as well as environmental factors, play a role in development of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to be associated with NPC. To confirm these genetic associations with NPC, two independent case-control studies from Southern China comprising 1166 NPC cases and 2340 controls were conducted. Seven SNPs in ITGA9 at 3p21.3 and 9 SNPs within the 6p21.3 HLA region were genotyped. To explore the potential clinical application of these genetic markers in NPC, we further evaluate the predictive/diagnostic role of significant SNPs by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). The reported associations between ITGA9 variants and NPC were not replicated. Multiple loci of GABBR1, HLA-F, HLA-A, and HCG9 were statistically significant in both cohorts (P(combined) range from 5.96 × 10(-17) to 0.02). We show for the first time that these factors influence NPC development independent of environmental risk factors. This study also indicated that the SNP alone cannot serve as a predictive/diagnostic marker for NPC. Integrating the most significant SNP with IgA antibodies status to EBV, which is presently used as screening/diagnostic marker for NPC in Chinese populations, did not improve the AUC estimate for diagnosis of NPC.

Effect of Nasal Continuous Positive Pressure on the Nostrils of Patients with Sleep Apnea Syndrome and no Previous Nasal Pathology. Predictive Factors for Compliance.

PubMed

Aguilar, Francina; Cisternas, Ariel; Montserrat, Josep Maria; Àvila, Manuel; Torres-López, Marta; Iranzo, Alex; Berenguer, Joan; Vilaseca, Isabel

2016-10-01

To evaluate the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on the nostrils of patients with sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome and its impact on quality of life, and to identify predictive factors for compliance. Longitudinal prospective study. Thirty-six consecutive patients evaluated before and 2 months after CPAP using the following variables: clinical (eye, nose and throat [ENT] symptoms, Epworth test, anxiety/depression scales, general and rhinoconjunctivitis-specific quality of life); anatomical (ENT examination, computed tomography); functional (auditive and Eustachian tube function, nasal flow, mucociliary transport); biological (nasal cytology); and polisomnographics. The sample was divided into compliers (≥4h/d) and non-compliers (<4h/d). A significant improvement was observed in daytime sleepiness (p=0.000), anxiety (P=.006), and depression (P=.023). Nasal dryness (P=.000), increased neutrophils in nasal cytology (P=.000), and deteriorating ciliary function were evidenced, particularly in compliers. No significant differences were observed in the other variables. Baseline sleepiness was the only factor predictive of compliance. CPAP in patients without previous nasal pathology leads to an improvement in a series of clinical parameters and causes rhinitis and airway dryness. Some ENT variables worsened in compliers. Sleepiness was the only prognostic factor for poor tolerance. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Relationship of number of seizures recorded on video-EEG to surgical outcome in refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy

PubMed Central

Sainju, Rup Kamal; Wolf, Bethany Jacobs; Bonilha, Leonardo; Martz, Gabriel

2014-01-01

Introduction Surgical planning for refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (rMTLE) relies on seizure localization by ictal electroencephalography (EEG). Multiple factors impact the number of seizures recorded. We evaluated whether seizure freedom correlated to the number of seizures recorded, and the related factors. Methods We collected data for 32 patients with rMTLE who underwent anterior temporal lobectomy. Primary analysis evaluated number of seizures captured as a predictor of surgical outcome. Subsequent analyses explored factors that may seizure number. Results Number of seizures recorded did not predict seizure freedom. More seizures were recorded with more days of seizure occurrence (p<0.001), seizure clusters (p≤0.011) and poorly localized seizures (PLSz) (p=0.004). Regression modeling showed a trend for subjects with fewer recorded poorly localized seizures to have better surgical outcome (p=0.052). Conclusions Total number of recorded seizures does not predict surgical outcome. Patients with more PLSz may have worse outcome. PMID:22990726

Information to Act: Household Characteristics are Predictors of Domestic Infestation with the Chagas Vector Triatoma dimidiata in Central America

PubMed Central

Zamora, Dulce María Bustamante; Hernández, Marianela Menes; Torres, Nuria; Zúniga, Concepción; Sosa, Wilfredo; de Abrego, Vianney; Escobar, María Carlota Monroy

2015-01-01

The interruption of vectorial transmission of Chagas disease by Triatoma dimidiata in central America is a public health challenge that cannot be resolved by insecticide application alone. In this study, we collected information on previously known household risk factors for infestation in 11 villages and more than 2,000 houses in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, and we constructed multivariate models and used multimodel inference to evaluate their importance as predictors of infestation in the region. The models had moderate ability to predict infested houses (sensitivity, 0.32–0.54) and excellent ability to predict noninfested houses (specificity higher than 0.90). Predictive ability was improved by including random village effects and presence of signs of infestation (insect feces, eggs, and exuviae) as fixed effects. Multimodel inference results varied depending on factors included, but house wall materials (adobe, bajareque, and palopique) and signs of infestation were among the most important predictive factors. Reduced models were not supported suggesting that all factors contributed to predictions. Previous knowledge and information from this study show that we have evidence to prioritize rural households for improvement to prevent house infestation with Triatoma dimidiata in Central America. House improvement will most likely have other health co-benefits. PMID:25870430

Information to act: household characteristics are predictors of domestic infestation with the Chagas vector Triatoma dimidiata in Central America.

PubMed

Bustamante Zamora, Dulce María; Hernández, Marianela Menes; Torres, Nuria; Zúniga, Concepción; Sosa, Wilfredo; de Abrego, Vianney; Monroy Escobar, María Carlota

2015-07-01

The interruption of vectorial transmission of Chagas disease by Triatoma dimidiata in central America is a public health challenge that cannot be resolved by insecticide application alone. In this study, we collected information on previously known household risk factors for infestation in 11 villages and more than 2,000 houses in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, and we constructed multivariate models and used multimodel inference to evaluate their importance as predictors of infestation in the region. The models had moderate ability to predict infested houses (sensitivity, 0.32-0.54) and excellent ability to predict noninfested houses (specificity higher than 0.90). Predictive ability was improved by including random village effects and presence of signs of infestation (insect feces, eggs, and exuviae) as fixed effects. Multimodel inference results varied depending on factors included, but house wall materials (adobe, bajareque, and palopique) and signs of infestation were among the most important predictive factors. Reduced models were not supported suggesting that all factors contributed to predictions. Previous knowledge and information from this study show that we have evidence to prioritize rural households for improvement to prevent house infestation with Triatoma dimidiata in Central America. House improvement will most likely have other health co-benefits. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Comprehensive Analysis of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Preoperative Prognostic Prediction Nomogram in Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Choi, Jong-Ho; Suh, Yun-Suhk; Choi, Yunhee; Han, Jiyeon; Kim, Tae Han; Park, Shin-Hoo; Kong, Seong-Ho; Lee, Hyuk-Joon; Yang, Han-Kwang

2018-02-01

The role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and preoperative prediction model in gastric cancer is controversial, while postoperative prognostic models are available. This study investigated NLR as a preoperative prognostic indicator in gastric cancer. We reviewed patients with primary gastric cancer who underwent surgery during 2007-2010. Preoperative clinicopathologic factors were analyzed with their interaction and used to develop a prognosis prediction nomogram. That preoperative prediction nomogram was compared to a nomogram using pTNM or a historical postoperative prediction nomogram. The contribution of NLR to a preoperative nomogram was evaluated with integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Using 2539 records, multivariable analysis revealed that NLR was one of the independent prognostic factors and had a significant interaction with only age among other preoperative factors (especially significant in patients < 50 years old). NLR was constantly significant between 1.1 and 3.1 without any distinctive cutoff value. Preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.79 and an R 2 of 25.2%, which was comparable to the C-index of 0.78 and 0.82 and R 2 of 26.6 and 25.8% from nomogram using pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram, respectively. IDI of NLR to nomogram in the overall population was 0.65%, and that of patients < 50 years old was 2.72%. NLR is an independent prognostic factor for gastric cancer, especially in patients < 50 years old. A preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR can predict prognosis of gastric cancer as effectively as pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram.

24-Month-Old Children with Larger Oral Vocabularies Display Greater Academic and Behavioral Functioning at Kindergarten Entry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Hammer, Carol Scheffner; Maczuga, Steve

2015-01-01

Data were analyzed from a population-based, longitudinal sample of 8,650 U.S. children to (a) identify factors associated with or predictive of oral vocabulary size at 24 months of age and (b) evaluate whether oral vocabulary size is uniquely predictive of academic and behavioral functioning at kindergarten entry. Children from higher…

Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

PubMed

Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

2018-05-04

Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating predictive models for solar energy growth in the US states and identifying the key drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Joheen; Banerji, Sugata

2018-03-01

Driven by a desire to control climate change and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, governments around the world are increasing the adoption of renewable energy sources. However, among the US states, we observe a wide disparity in renewable penetration. In this study, we have identified and cleaned over a dozen datasets representing solar energy penetration in each US state, and the potentially relevant socioeconomic and other factors that may be driving the growth in solar. We have applied a number of predictive modeling approaches - including machine learning and regression - on these datasets over a 17-year period and evaluated the relative performance of the models. Our goals were: (1) identify the most important factors that are driving the growth in solar, (2) choose the most effective predictive modeling technique for solar growth, and (3) develop a model for predicting next year’s solar growth using this year’s data. We obtained very promising results with random forests (about 90% efficacy) and varying degrees of success with support vector machines and regression techniques (linear, polynomial, ridge). We also identified states with solar growth slower than expected and representing a potential for stronger growth in future.

Overcoming redundancies in bedside nursing assessments by validating a parsimonious meta-tool: findings from a methodological exercise study.

PubMed

Palese, Alvisa; Marini, Eva; Guarnier, Annamaria; Barelli, Paolo; Zambiasi, Paola; Allegrini, Elisabetta; Bazoli, Letizia; Casson, Paola; Marin, Meri; Padovan, Marisa; Picogna, Michele; Taddia, Patrizia; Chiari, Paolo; Salmaso, Daniele; Marognolli, Oliva; Canzan, Federica; Ambrosi, Elisa; Saiani, Luisa; Grassetti, Luca

2016-10-01

There is growing interest in validating tools aimed at supporting the clinical decision-making process and research. However, an increased bureaucratization of clinical practice and redundancies in the measures collected have been reported by clinicians. Redundancies in clinical assessments affect negatively both patients and nurses. To validate a meta-tool measuring the risks/problems currently estimated by multiple tools used in daily practice. A secondary analysis of a database was performed, using a cross-validation and a longitudinal study designs. In total, 1464 patients admitted to 12 medical units in 2012 were assessed at admission with the Brass, Barthel, Conley and Braden tools. Pertinent outcomes such as the occurrence of post-discharge need for resources and functional decline at discharge, as well as falls and pressure sores, were measured. Explorative factor analysis of each tool, inter-tool correlations and a conceptual evaluation of the redundant/similar items across tools were performed. Therefore, the validation of the meta-tool was performed through explorative factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis and the structural equation model to establish the ability of the meta-tool to predict the outcomes estimated by the original tools. High correlations between the tools have emerged (from r 0.428 to 0.867) with a common variance from 18.3% to 75.1%. Through a conceptual evaluation and explorative factor analysis, the items were reduced from 42 to 20, and the three factors that emerged were confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. According to the structural equation model results, two out of three emerged factors predicted the outcomes. From the initial 42 items, the meta-tool is composed of 20 items capable of predicting the outcomes as with the original tools. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of MEGAN predicted biogenic isoprene emissions at urban locations in Southeast Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kota, Sri Harsha; Schade, Gunnar; Estes, Mark; Boyer, Doug; Ying, Qi

2015-06-01

Summertime isoprene emissions in the Houston area predicted by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 during the 2006 TexAQS study were evaluated using a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Predicted daytime isoprene concentrations at nine surface sites operated by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) were significantly higher than local observations when biogenic emissions dominate the total isoprene concentrations, with mean normalized bias (MNB) ranges from 2.0 to 7.7 and mean normalized error (MNE) ranges from 2.2 to 7.7. Predicted upper air isoprene and its first generation oxidation products of methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) were also significantly higher (MNB = 8.6, MNE = 9.1) than observations made onboard of NOAA's WP-3 airplane, which flew over the urban area. Over-prediction of isoprene and its oxidation products both at the surface and the upper air strongly suggests that biogenic isoprene emissions in the Houston area are significantly overestimated. Reducing the emission rates by approximately 3/4 was necessary to reduce the error between predictions and observations. Comparison of gridded leaf area index (LAI), plant functional type (PFT) and gridded isoprene emission factor (EF) used in MEGAN modeling with estimates of the same factors from a field survey north of downtown Houston showed that the isoprene over-prediction is likely caused by the combined effects of a large overestimation of the gridded EF in urban Houston and an underestimation of urban LAI. Nevertheless, predicted ozone concentrations in this region were not significantly affected by the isoprene over-predictions, while predicted isoprene SOA and total SOA concentrations can be higher by as much as 50% and 13% using the higher isoprene emission rates, respectively.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Evaluation of prognostic factors on recurrence after curative resections for hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Han, Jae Hyun; Kim, Dong Goo; Na, Gun Hyung; Kim, Eun Young; Lee, Soo Ho; Hong, Tae Ho; You, Young Kyoung

2014-01-01

AIM: To select appropriate patients before surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially those with advanced tumors. METHODS: From January 2000 to December 2012, we retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 298 patients who had undergone surgical resections for HCC with curative intent at our hospital. We evaluated preoperative prognostic factors associated with histologic grade of tumor, recurrence and survival, especially the findings of pre-operative imaging studies such as positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). And then, we established a scoring system to predict recurrence and survival after surgery dividing the patients into two groups based on a tumor size of 5 cm. RESULTS: Of the 298 patients, 129 (43.3%) developed recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5 year disease free survival and overall survival were 47.0% and 58.7% respectively. In multivariate analysis, a serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of > 100 ng/mL and a standardized uptake value (SUV) of PET-CT of > 3.5 were predictive factors for histologic grade of tumor, recurrence, and survival. Tumor size of > 5 cm and a relative enhancement ratio (RER) calculated from preoperative MRI were also significantly associated with prognosis in univariate analysis. We established a scoring system to predict prognosis using AFP, SUV, and RER. In those with tumors of > 5 cm, it showed predicted both recurrence (P = 0.005) and survival (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The AFP, tumor size, SUV and RER are useful for prognosis preoperatively. An accurate prediction of prognosis is possible using our scoring system in large size tumors. PMID:25493027

Evaluation of prognostic factors on recurrence after curative resections for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Han, Jae Hyun; Kim, Dong Goo; Na, Gun Hyung; Kim, Eun Young; Lee, Soo Ho; Hong, Tae Ho; You, Young Kyoung

2014-12-07

To select appropriate patients before surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially those with advanced tumors. From January 2000 to December 2012, we retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 298 patients who had undergone surgical resections for HCC with curative intent at our hospital. We evaluated preoperative prognostic factors associated with histologic grade of tumor, recurrence and survival, especially the findings of pre-operative imaging studies such as positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). And then, we established a scoring system to predict recurrence and survival after surgery dividing the patients into two groups based on a tumor size of 5 cm. Of the 298 patients, 129 (43.3%) developed recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5 year disease free survival and overall survival were 47.0% and 58.7% respectively. In multivariate analysis, a serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of > 100 ng/mL and a standardized uptake value (SUV) of PET-CT of > 3.5 were predictive factors for histologic grade of tumor, recurrence, and survival. Tumor size of > 5 cm and a relative enhancement ratio (RER) calculated from preoperative MRI were also significantly associated with prognosis in univariate analysis. We established a scoring system to predict prognosis using AFP, SUV, and RER. In those with tumors of > 5 cm, it showed predicted both recurrence (P = 0.005) and survival (P = 0.001). The AFP, tumor size, SUV and RER are useful for prognosis preoperatively. An accurate prediction of prognosis is possible using our scoring system in large size tumors.

Stepped approach for prediction of syndrome Z in patients attending sleep clinic: a north Indian hospital-based study.

PubMed

Agrawal, Swastik; Sharma, Surendra Kumar; Sreenivas, Vishnubhatla; Lakshmy, Ramakrishnan; Mishra, Hemant K

2012-09-01

Syndrome Z is the occurrence of metabolic syndrome (MS) with obstructive sleep apnea. Knowledge of its risk factors is useful to screen patients requiring further evaluation for syndrome Z. Consecutive patients referred from sleep clinic undergoing polysomnography in the Sleep Laboratory of AIIMS Hospital, New Delhi were screened between June 2008 and May 2010, and 227 patients were recruited. Anthropometry, body composition analysis, blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, and lipid profile were measured. MS was defined using the National Cholesterol Education Program (adult treatment panel III) criteria, with Asian cutoff values for abdominal obesity. Prevalence of MS and syndrome Z was 74% and 65%, respectively. Age, percent body fat, excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), and ΔSaO(2) (defined as difference between baseline and minimum SaO(2) during polysomnography) were independently associated with syndrome Z. Using a cutoff of 15% for level of desaturation, the stepped predictive score using these risk factors had sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 75%, 73%, 84%, and 61%, respectively for the diagnosis of syndrome Z. It correctly characterized presence of syndrome Z 75% of the time and obviated need for detailed evaluation in 42% of the screened subjects. A large proportion of patients presenting to sleep clinics have MS and syndrome Z. Age, percent body fat, EDS, and ΔSaO(2) are independent risk factors for syndrome Z. A stepped predictive score using these parameters is cost-effective and useful in diagnosing syndrome Z in resource-limited settings.

Fear of negative appearance evaluation: development and evaluation of a new construct for risk factor work in the field of eating disorders.

PubMed

Lundgren, Jennifer D; Anderson, Drew A; Thompson, Joel Kevin

2004-01-01

The psychometric properties and correlates of a measure designed to assess fear of negative appearance evaluation are presented. In Study 1, 165 college females completed the Fear of Negative Appearance Evaluation Scale [FNAES; Thomas, C.M., Keery, H., Williams, R., & Thompson, J. K. (1998, November). The Fear of Negative Appearance Evaluation Scale: Development and preliminary validation. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Association for the Advancement of Behavior Therapy, Washington, DC] along with measures of body image, eating disturbance, and depression. Results replicated previous analyses indicating the presence of a single factor, good internal consistency, and significant association with measures of body image and eating disturbance. Additionally, the FNAES accounted for unique variance beyond that explained by general fear of negative evaluation, and other measures of body image and eating disturbance, in the prediction of body shape dysphoria, dietary restraint, and trait anxiety. Study 2 further examined the validity of the FNAES, finding it to correlate significantly with measures of social physique anxiety, body image, eating attitude, and mood. The FNAES did not significantly correlate with body mass index (BMI). Regression analyses found the FNAES to predict levels of body image, eating attitude, and mood beyond variance explained by social physique anxiety. The FNAES appears to measure a conceptually unique aspect of body image that has not been indexed by previous measures and may serve a useful role in risk factor and preventive work.

Interrelationships among invasive and non-invasive indicators of biological maturation in adolescent male soccer players.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Coelho E Silva, Manuel J; Figueiredo, António J; Carling, Christopher; Beunen, Gaston P

2012-01-01

The relationships among indicators of biological maturation were evaluated and concordance between classifications of maturity status in two age groups of youth soccer players examined (11-12 years, n = 87; 13-14 years, n = 93). Data included chronological age (CA), skeletal age (SA, Fels method), stage of pubic hair, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted adult height. Players were classified as on time, late or early in maturation using the SA-CA difference, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted mature height. Factor analyses indicated two factors in players aged 11-12 years (maturity status: percent of predicted mature height, stage of pubic hair, 59% of variance; maturity timing: SA/CA ratio, predicted age at peak height velocity, 26% of variance), and one factor in players aged 13-14 years (68% of variance). Kappa coefficients were low (0.02-0.23) and indicated poor agreement between maturity classifications. Spearman rank-order correlations between categories were low to moderate (0.16-0.50). Although the indicators were related, concordance of maturity classifications between skeletal age and predicted age at peak height velocity and percent predicted mature height was poor. Talent development programmes call for the classification of youth as early, average, and late maturing for the purpose of designing training and competition programmes. Non-invasive indicators of maturity status have limitations for this purpose.

Factors associated with parents’ perceptions of parental smoking in the presence of children and its consequences on children.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Ting; Hsiao, Fei-Hsiu; Miao, Nae-Fang; Chen, Ping-Ling

2013-01-07

Parental smoking is the major source of children's secondhand smoke exposure and is influenced by parents' perception of children's exposure. However, the factors associated with these perceptions remain unclear. The objective of this study was to examine factors associated with parents' perceptions about parental smoking in the presence of children and its consequences. We conducted a cross-sectional study on parents' perceptions of parental smoking and measured their evaluations of its consequences using a self-report questionnaire. Other variables include socio-demographic characteristics and smoking-related experience. Results show that parents' gender, education level, occupational type, smoking status, and agreement on a home smoking ban independently predict parents' evaluation of the consequences of parental smoking in the presence of children. Parents' gender, education level, annual family income, smoking status, agreement on a home smoking ban, and evaluation of the consequences of parental smoking independently predicted parents' perceptions. Findings indicated that a specific group expressed greater acceptance of parental smoking and was less aware of its risks. Motivating parents to create a smoke-free home and increasing awareness of the adverse consequences of parental smoking is beneficial in reinforcing attitudes opposed to parental smoking.

Factors Associated with Parents’ Perceptions of Parental Smoking in the Presence of Children and Its Consequences on Children

PubMed Central

Chen, Yu-Ting; Hsiao, Fei-Hsiu; Miao, Nae-Fang; Chen, Ping-Ling

2013-01-01

Parental smoking is the major source of children’s secondhand smoke exposure and is influenced by parents’ perception of children’s exposure. However, the factors associated with these perceptions remain unclear. The objective of this study was to examine factors associated with parents’ perceptions about parental smoking in the presence of children and its consequences. We conducted a cross-sectional study on parents’ perceptions of parental smoking and measured their evaluations of its consequences using a self-report questionnaire. Other variables include socio-demographic characteristics and smoking-related experience. Results show that parents’ gender, education level, occupational type, smoking status, and agreement on a home smoking ban independently predict parents’ evaluation of the consequences of parental smoking in the presence of children. Parents’ gender, education level, annual family income, smoking status, agreement on a home smoking ban, and evaluation of the consequences of parental smoking independently predicted parents’ perceptions. Findings indicated that a specific group expressed greater acceptance of parental smoking and was less aware of its risks. Motivating parents to create a smoke-free home and increasing awareness of the adverse consequences of parental smoking is beneficial in reinforcing attitudes opposed to parental smoking. PMID:23296207

Prediction of Floor Water Inrush: The Application of GIS-Based AHP Vulnerable Index Method to Donghuantuo Coal Mine, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiang; Liu, Yuanzhang; Liu, Donghai; Zhou, Wanfang

2011-09-01

Floor water inrush represents a geohazard that can pose significant threat to safe operations for instance in coal mines in China and elsewhere. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors, and the processes are often not amenable to mathematical expressions. To evaluate the water inrush risk, the paper proposes the vulnerability index approach by coupling the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS). The detailed procedures of using this innovative approach are shown in a case study in China (Donghuantuo Coal Mine). The powerful spatial data analysis functions of GIS was used to establish the thematic layer of each of the six factors that control the water inrush, and the contribution weights of each factor was determined with the AHP method. The established AHP evaluation model was used to determine the threshold value for each risk level with a histogram of the water inrush vulnerability index. As a result, the mine area was divided into five regions with different vulnerability levels which served as general guidelines for the mine operations. The prediction results were further corroborated with the actual mining data, and the evaluation result is satisfactory.

The use of patient factors to improve the prediction of operative duration using laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Thiels, Cornelius A; Yu, Denny; Abdelrahman, Amro M; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Hallbeck, Susan; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Bingener, Juliane

2017-01-01

Reliable prediction of operative duration is essential for improving patient and care team satisfaction, optimizing resource utilization and reducing cost. Current operative scheduling systems are unreliable and contribute to costly over- and underestimation of operative time. We hypothesized that the inclusion of patient-specific factors would improve the accuracy in predicting operative duration. We reviewed all elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies performed at a single institution between 01/2007 and 06/2013. Concurrent procedures were excluded. Univariate analysis evaluated the effect of age, gender, BMI, ASA, laboratory values, smoking, and comorbidities on operative duration. Multivariable linear regression models were constructed using the significant factors (p < 0.05). The patient factors model was compared to the traditional surgical scheduling system estimates, which uses historical surgeon-specific and procedure-specific operative duration. External validation was done using the ACS-NSQIP database (n = 11,842). A total of 1801 laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients met inclusion criteria. Female sex was associated with reduced operative duration (-7.5 min, p < 0.001 vs. male sex) while increasing BMI (+5.1 min BMI 25-29.9, +6.9 min BMI 30-34.9, +10.4 min BMI 35-39.9, +17.0 min BMI 40 + , all p < 0.05 vs. normal BMI), increasing ASA (+7.4 min ASA III, +38.3 min ASA IV, all p < 0.01 vs. ASA I), and elevated liver function tests (+7.9 min, p < 0.01 vs. normal) were predictive of increased operative duration on univariate analysis. A model was then constructed using these predictive factors. The traditional surgical scheduling system was poorly predictive of actual operative duration (R 2  = 0.001) compared to the patient factors model (R 2  = 0.08). The model remained predictive on external validation (R 2  = 0.14).The addition of surgeon as a variable in the institutional model further improved predictive ability of the model (R 2  = 0.18). The use of routinely available pre-operative patient factors improves the prediction of operative duration during cholecystectomy.

[Quality of life in ankylosing spondylitis].

PubMed

Younes, Mohamed; Jalled, Anis; Aydi, Zohra; Younes, Kaouthar; Jguirim, Mahbouba; Zrour, Saoussen; Ben Salah, Zohra; Bejia, Ismail; Touzi, Mongi; Bergaoui, Naceur

2011-04-01

Ankylosing Spondylarthritis (AS) involves by its frequency and its repercussion on the functional capacity an important handicap and deterioration of the patients quality of life. To evaluate the handicap and the quality of life during the AS and to seek the predictive factors of the deterioration of this quality of life. A prospective study relating to 50 patients recruited in the Department of Rheumatology of F. B. Hospital of Monastir during 6 months period (Mars to September 2008). The studied parameters were the quality of life evaluated by a specific sore (ASQOL) and a generic score (SF-12). Also the physical, social and economic felt handicap was evaluated using a qualitative scale. Predictive factors (clinical, biological and radiological) of the quality of life were carried out. Our patients are divided in 42 men and 8 women with an average age of 38.9 ± 10.7 years. The average duration of AS is of 11.9 ± 7.6 years. The average of ASQOL is of 11.9 ± 4 (extremes: 0- 17). The average of physical SF12 is of 29.8 ± 6 (21.7-53.2) and of mental SF-12 of 35.3 ± 6.6 (22.5-55.8). The physical, social and economic felt handicap was considered to be average or important in respectively 88%, 72% and 86% of the cases. The predictive factors of a high ASQOL (faded quality of life) are absence of occupation, high BASMI, a high number of painful articulations and high BASFI, BASDAI, BASG, BASRI and EVA total pain. The factors associated to the alteration of the quality of life according to SF-12'S are male sex, professional statute, high number of painful articulations and high BASDAI, BASFI and BASRI. Our study shows the important deterioration of the quality of life in AS patients. The existence of the predictive factors of quality of life primarily related to the functional capacity of the patients and to the disease activity implicates an early and adequate disease management in order to decrease this repercussion.

Investigation of Characteristics and Predictive Factors Affecting Mortality from Aluminum Phosphide Poisoning, Iran.

PubMed

Navabi, Seyed Mohammad Navabi; Navabi, Seyed Jafar; Aghaei, Abbas; Shaahmadi, Zahra; Heydari, Ruhollah

2018-05-27

Aluminum phosphide (ALP) or rice tablet is one of the most effective rodenticides used for the protection of grain storages from animals and rodents. ALP poisoning annually leads to mortality in human beings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and predictive factors affecting mortality from ALP poisoning. This study evaluated patients with ALP poisoning referred to Imam Khomeini hospital in Kermanshah from 2014 to 2015. There are several data gathered from patient such as age, sex, number of consumed tablets, the number of attempts to commit suicide, elapsed time from consuming till treatment, blood pressure, PH, HCO3 and PCO2. Survivors (recovery) and non-survivors (death) from ALP poisoning are also evaluated in this study. Univariate logistic regression and multivariate analysis have been applied for data analysis. In this study, 48 patients were male and 29 patients were female, respectively (total 77 patient). The average age of survivors and non-survivors were 28.69 and 31.34 years, respectively. All cases (100%) of ALP poisoning were tried to commit suicide. The results showed that the main predictive variables of mortality from ALP poisoning were blood pressure, PH and elapsed time from consuming till treatment. The prognosis of death for patients with ALP poisoning can be determined by awareness of some of the main characteristics or factors such as blood pressure, PH and elapsed time from consuming till treatment. This can give a possibility for healthcare groups to consider more measures in patients with ALP poisoning.

Measuring Emotional Intelligence Enhances the Psychological Evaluation of Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Doherty, Eva M; Walsh, Rosemary; Andrews, Leanne; McPherson, Susan

2017-12-01

The assessment of emotional factors, in addition to other psychosocial factors, has been recommended as a means of identifying individuals with chronic pain who may not respond to certain pain treatments. Systematic reviews of the evidence regarding the prediction of responsiveness to a treatment called the spinal cord stimulator (SCS) have yielded inconclusive results. Emotional intelligence is a term which refers to the ability to identify and manage emotions in oneself and others and has been shown to be inversely associated with emotional distress and acute pain. This study aims to investigate the relationship between emotional intelligence, chronic pain, and the more established psychosocial factors usually used for SCS evaluations by clinical psychologists in medical settings. A sample of 112 patients with chronic pain on an acute hospital waiting list for SCS procedures in a pain medicine service were recruited. Psychological measures were completed including: a novel measure of emotional intelligence; usual measures of emotional distress and catastrophizing; and a numerical rating scale designed to assess pain intensity, pain-related distress, and interference. As predicted, findings revealed significant associations between most of the measures analyzed and current pain intensity. When entered into a simultaneous regression analysis, emotional intelligence scores remained the only significant predictor of current pain intensity. There are potential clinical, ethical, and organizational implications of emotional intelligence processes partially predicting pain in patients on a waiting list for a medical procedure. These results may offer new insight, understanding, and evaluation targets for clinical psychologists in the field of pain management.

Behavioral Activation Therapy for Depressed Cancer Patients: Factors Associated with Treatment Outcome and Attrition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopko, D. R.; Robertson, S. M. C.; Colman, L.

2008-01-01

In recent years there has been increased focus on evaluating the efficacy of psychosocial interventions for cancer patients. Among the several limitations inherent to these programs of research, few studies have targeted patients with well-diagnosed clinical depression and little is known about factors that best predict treatment outcome and…

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

Treesearch

Michael Tausz; Nancy E. Grulke; Gerhard Wieser

2007-01-01

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing...

An Examination of Factors Associated with School Psychologists' Provision of Counseling Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeFago, Jennifer Kelly

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factors that predict provision of counseling services by Ohio-based school psychologists. In order to address the research questions, a survey instrument was created and a sample of school psychologists working in Ohio completed a questionnaire regarding their counseling practices. The data were…

Are prostatic calculi independent predictive factors of lower urinary tract symptoms?

PubMed

Park, Sung-Woo; Nam, Jong-Kil; Lee, Sang-Don; Chung, Moon-Kee

2010-03-01

We determined the correlation between prostatic calculi and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), as well as the predisposing factors of prostatic calculi. Of the 1 527 patients who presented at our clinic for LUTS, 802 underwent complete evaluations, including transrectal ultrasonography, voided bladder-3 specimen and international prostatic symptoms score (IPSS). A total of 335 patients with prostatic calculi and 467 patients without prostatic calculi were divided into calculi and no calculi groups, respectively. Predictive factors of severe LUTS and prostatic calculi were determined using uni/multivariate analysis. The overall IPSS score was 15.7 +/- 9.2 and 14.1 +/- 9.2 in the calculi and no calculi group, respectively (P = 0.013). The maximum flow rate was 12.1 +/- 6.9 and 14.2 +/- 8.2 mL s(-1) in the calculi and no calculi group, respectively (P = 0.003). On univariate analysis for predicting factors of severe LUTS, differences on age (P = 0.042), prostatic calculi (P = 0.048) and prostatitis (P = 0.018) were statistically significant. However, on multivariate analysis, no factor was significant. On multivariate analysis for predisposing factors of prostatic calculi, differences on age (P < 0.001) and prostate volume (P = 0.001) were significant. To our knowledge, patients who have prostatic calculi complain of more severe LUTS. However, prostatic calculi are not an independent predictive factor of severe LUTS. Therefore, men with prostatic calculi have more severe LUTS not only because of prostatic calculi but also because of age and other factors. In addition, old age and large prostate volume are independent predisposing factors for prostatic calculi.

The clinical use of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in bladder cancer patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tang, Xingxing; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the evidence regarding the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a factor predictive of survival in bladder cancer patients. A search of PubMed and Embase for relevant studies between January 1, 1966 and November 10, 2016 was performed with the terms [NLR OR (neutrophil lymphocyte ratio)] AND [(bladder cancer) OR BCa OR NMIBC OR MIBC]. Inclusion required studies published in English containing bladder cancer patients and evaluating NLR as a predictive factor. Endpoints of NLR and survival data were extracted for pooled analysis. The pooled results showed that an elevated NLR was a predictor for poor overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.31], cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.17-1.69), recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.24-2.03) and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.19-1.49) in patients with bladder cancer. Heterogeneity between studies was observed for OS, CSS and RFS, but not for PFS. Publication bias was detected for all these outcomes. Our results showed that elevated NLR might be valuable as a predictive factor of survival in bladder cancer patients.

Implementation of fuzzy logic to determining selling price of products in a local corporate chain store

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiana, S. P. D.

2017-12-01

Corporate chain store is one type of retail industries companies that are developing growing rapidly in Indonesia. The competition between retail companies is very tight, so retailer companies should evaluate its performance continuously in order to survive. The selling price of products is one of the essential attributes and gets attention of many consumers where it’s used to evaluate the performance of the industry. This research aimed to determine optimal selling price of product with considering cost factors, namely purchase price of the product from supplier, holding costs, and transportation costs. Fuzzy logic approach is used in data processing with MATLAB software. Fuzzy logic is selected to solve the problem because this method can consider complexities factors. The result is a model of determination of the optimal selling price by considering three cost factors as inputs in the model. Calculating MAPE and model prediction ability for some products are used as validation and verification where the average value is 0.0525 for MAPE and 94.75% for prediction ability. The conclusion is this model can predict the selling price of up to 94.75%, so it can be used as tools for the corporate chain store in particular to determine the optimal selling price for its products.

Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2005-01-01

To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

Analysis of spatial distribution of land cover maps accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatami, R.; Mountrakis, G.; Stehman, S. V.

2017-12-01

Land cover maps have become one of the most important products of remote sensing science. However, classification errors will exist in any classified map and affect the reliability of subsequent map usage. Moreover, classification accuracy often varies over different regions of a classified map. These variations of accuracy will affect the reliability of subsequent analyses of different regions based on the classified maps. The traditional approach of map accuracy assessment based on an error matrix does not capture the spatial variation in classification accuracy. Here, per-pixel accuracy prediction methods are proposed based on interpolating accuracy values from a test sample to produce wall-to-wall accuracy maps. Different accuracy prediction methods were developed based on four factors: predictive domain (spatial versus spectral), interpolation function (constant, linear, Gaussian, and logistic), incorporation of class information (interpolating each class separately versus grouping them together), and sample size. Incorporation of spectral domain as explanatory feature spaces of classification accuracy interpolation was done for the first time in this research. Performance of the prediction methods was evaluated using 26 test blocks, with 10 km × 10 km dimensions, dispersed throughout the United States. The performance of the predictions was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. Relative to existing accuracy prediction methods, our proposed methods resulted in improvements of AUC of 0.15 or greater. Evaluation of the four factors comprising the accuracy prediction methods demonstrated that: i) interpolations should be done separately for each class instead of grouping all classes together; ii) if an all-classes approach is used, the spectral domain will result in substantially greater AUC than the spatial domain; iii) for the smaller sample size and per-class predictions, the spectral and spatial domain yielded similar AUC; iv) for the larger sample size (i.e., very dense spatial sample) and per-class predictions, the spatial domain yielded larger AUC; v) increasing the sample size improved accuracy predictions with a greater benefit accruing to the spatial domain; and vi) the function used for interpolation had the smallest effect on AUC.

Workup for Perinatal Stroke Does Not Predict Recurrence.

PubMed

Lehman, Laura L; Beaute, Jeanette; Kapur, Kush; Danehy, Amy R; Bernson-Leung, Miya E; Malkin, Hayley; Rivkin, Michael J; Trenor, Cameron C

2017-08-01

Perinatal stroke, including neonatal and presumed perinatal presentation, represents the age in childhood in which stroke occurs most frequently. The roles of thrombophilia, arteriopathy, and cardiac anomalies in perinatal ischemic stroke are currently unclear. We took a uniform approach to perinatal ischemic stroke evaluation to study these risk factors and their association with recurrent stroke. We reviewed records of perinatal stroke patients evaluated from August 2008 to February 2016 at a single referral center. Demographics, echocardiography, arterial imaging, and thrombophilia testing were collected. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test. Across 215 cases, the median follow-up was 3.17 years (1.49, 6.46). Females comprised 42.8% of cases. Age of presentation was neonatal (110, 51.2%) or presumed perinatal (105, 48.8%). The median age at diagnosis was 2.9 days (interquartile range, 2.0-9.9) for neonatal stroke and 12.9 months (interquartile range, 8.7-32.8) for presumed perinatal stroke. Strokes were classified as arterial (149, 69.3%), venous (60, 27.9%), both (4, 1.9%), or uncertain (2, 0.9%) by consensus imaging review. Of the 215 cases, there were 6 (2.8%) recurrent ischemic cerebrovascular events. Abnormal thrombophilia testing was not associated with recurrent stroke, except for a single patient with combined antithrombin deficiency and protein C deficiency. After excluding venous events, 155 patients were evaluated for arteriopathy and cardioembolic risk factors; neither was associated with recurrent stroke. Positive family history of thrombosis was not predictive of abnormal thrombophilia testing. Thrombophilia, arteriopathy, or cardioembolic risk factors were not predictive of recurrent events after perinatal stroke. Thrombophilia evaluation in perinatal stroke should only rarely be considered. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Biomarkers of exposure, sensitivity and disease

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, A. L.

1999-01-01

PURPOSE: This review is to evaluate the use of biomarkers as an indication of past exposure to radiation or other environmental insults, individual sensitivity and risk for the development of late occurring disease. OVERVIEW: Biomarkers can be subdivided depending on their applications. Markers of exposure and dose can be used to reconstruct and predict past accidental or occupational exposures when limited or no physical measurements were available. Markers of risk or susceptibility can help identify sensitivity individuals that are at increased risk for development of spontaneous disease and may help predict the increased risk in sensitive individuals associated with environmental or therapeutic radiation exposures. Markers of disease represent the initial cellular or molecular changes that occur during disease development. Each of these types of biomarkers serves a unique purpose. OUTLINE: This paper concentrates on biomarkers of dose and exposure and provides a brief review of biomarkers of sensitivity and disease. The review of biomarkers of dose and exposure will demonstrate the usefulness of biomarkers in evaluation of physical factors associated with radiation exposure, such as LET, doserate and dose distribution. It will also evaluate the use of biomarkers to establish relationships that exist between exposure parameters such as energy deposition, environmental concentration of radioactive materials, alpha traversals and dose. In addition, the importance of biological factors on the magnitude of the biomarker response will be reviewed. Some of the factors evaluated will be the influence of species, tissue, cell types and genetic background. The review will demonstrate that markers of sensitivity and disease often have little usefulness in dose-reconstruction and, by the same token, many markers of dose or exposure may not be applicable for prediction of sensitivity or risk.

Evaluation of Respiratory Muscle Strength in the Acute Phase of Stroke: The Role of Aging and Anthropometric Variables.

PubMed

Luvizutto, Gustavo José; Dos Santos, Maria Regina Lopes; Sartor, Lorena Cristina Alvarez; da Silva Rodrigues, Josiela Cristina; da Costa, Rafael Dalle Molle; Braga, Gabriel Pereira; de Oliveira Antunes, Letícia Cláudia; Souza, Juli Thomaz; de Carvalho Nunes, Hélio Rubens; Bazan, Silméia Garcia Zanati; Bazan, Rodrigo

2017-10-01

During hospitalization, stroke patients are bedridden due to neurologic impairment, leading to loss of muscle mass, weakness, and functional limitation. There have been few studies examining respiratory muscle strength (RMS) in the acute phase of stroke. This study aimed to evaluate the RMS of patients with acute stroke compared with predicted values and to relate this to anthropometric variables, risk factors, and neurologic severity. This is a cross-sectional study in the acute phase of stroke. After admission, RMS was evaluated by maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) and maximal expiratory pressure (MEP); anthropometric data were collected; and neurologic severity was evaluated by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. The analysis of MIP and MEP with predicted values was performed by chi-square test, and the relationship between anthropometric variables, risk factors, and neurologic severity was determined through multiple linear regression followed by residue analysis by the Shapiro-Wilk test; P < .05 was considered statistically significant. In the 32 patients studied, MIP and MEP were reduced when compared with the predicted values. MIP declined significantly by 4.39 points for each 1 kg/m 2 increase in body mass index (BMI), and MEP declined significantly by an average of 3.89 points for each 1 kg/m 2 increase in BMI. There was no statistically significant relationship between MIP or MEP and risk factors, and between MIP or MIP and neurologic severity in acute phase of stroke. There is a reduction of RMS in the acute phase of stroke, and RMS was lower in individuals with increased age and BMI. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic dry eye in PRK and LASIK: manifestations, incidence and predictive factors

PubMed Central

Bower, Kraig S.; Sia, Rose K.; Ryan, Denise S.; Mines, Michael J.; Dartt, Darlene A.

2017-01-01

Purpose To evaluate dry eye manifestations following photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and determine the incidence and predictive factors of chronic dry eye using a set of dry eye criteria. Setting Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA Methods This is a prospective non-randomized clinical study of 143 active duty U.S. Army personnel aged 29.9±5.2 years with myopia or myopic astigmatism (manifest spherical equivalent −3.83±1.96 diopters) undergoing either PRK or LASIK. Dry eye evaluation was performed pre- and postoperatively. Main outcome measures included dry eye manifestations, incidence, and predictive factors of chronic dry eye. Results Schirmer scores, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, surface regularity index (SRI), and responses to dry eye questionnaire significantly changed over time after PRK. After LASIK, significant changes were observed in tear breakup time, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, and responses to questionnaire. At twelve months postoperatively, 5.0% of PRK and 0.8% of LASIK participants developed chronic dry eye. Regression analysis showed preoperatively lower Schirmer score will significantly influence development of chronic dry eye after PRK whereas preoperatively lower Schirmer score or higher ocular surface staining score will significantly influence the occurrence of chronic dry eye after LASIK. Conclusions Chronic dry eye is uncommon after PRK and LASIK. Ocular surface and tear film characteristics during preoperative examination may help predict chronic dry eye development in PRK and LASIK. PMID:26796443

Relationship between amputation and risk factors in individuals with diabetes mellitus: A study with Brazilian patients.

PubMed

Mantovani, Alessandra M; Fregonesi, Cristina E P T; Palma, Mariana R; Ribeiro, Fernanda E; Fernandes, Rômulo A; Christofaro, Diego G D

Individuals with diabetes develop lower extremity amputation for several reasons. Investigations into pathways to the development of complications are important both for treatment and prevention. To evaluate the relationship between amputation and risk factors in people with diabetes mellitus. All participants included in this study (n=165) were recruited from the Diabetic Foot Program, developed in a Brazilian University, over seven years (2007-2014) and all information for this study was extracted from their clinical records. The prevalence of amputation in patients with diabetes with four risk factors was up to 20% higher when compared to those with only one risk factor. The main predictive risk factors for amputation in this population were the presence of an ulcer and smoking. The risk factors for amputation can be predicted for people with diabetes mellitus and, in the present study, the main factors were the presence of an ulcer and the smoking habit. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with late-onset post-stroke depression.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; He, Ji-Rong; Liang, Huai-Bin; Lu, Wen-Jing; Yang, Guo-Yuan; Liu, Jian-Rong; Zeng, Li-Li

2017-10-15

To explore the associated factors of late-onset post-stroke depression (PSD). A total of 251 patients with acute ischemic stroke were recruited. The evaluation of depression was performed 2 weeks after ischemia. 206 patients showing no depression in 2 weeks were followed up. They were divided into late-onset PSD group and non-depressed group by clinical interview with Hamilton depression scale score 3 months after stroke. On the first day following hospitalization, the clinical data including age, gender, educational level and vascular risk factors were recorded. The severity, etiological subtype and location of stroke were evaluated. The inflammatory mediators, glucose and lipid levels were recorded on the day of admission. The association between clinical factors and late-onset PSD was explored by logistic regression analysis. The ROC analysis was performed to evaluate the predicting power of the clinical factors. 187 of 206 patients completed the assessment 3 months after stroke. 19 (10.16%) patients were diagnosed as late onset PSD. Diabetes mellitus was an independent risk factor for late-onset PSD (OR 2.675, p = 0.047). ROC analysis demonstrated that glucose and HbA1C could predict late-onset PSD with specificity of 84.4%. The sample of our study was small. The results should be further confirmed in a larger cohort of patients with acute ischemic stroke. The acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes mellitus were more tendered to suffer late-onset PSD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined Endoscopic/Sonographic-Based Risk Matrix Model for Predicting One-Year Risk of Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study of a Tertiary Center Severe/Refractory Crohn's Disease Cohort.

PubMed

Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Testa, Anna; Bucci, Luigi; Luglio, Gaetano; De Palma, Giovanni Domenico; Rea, Matilde; Nardone, Olga Maria; Caporaso, Nicola; Castiglione, Fabiana

2018-03-08

In the management of Crohn's Disease (CD) patients, having a simple score combining clinical, endoscopic and imaging features to predict the risk of surgery could help to tailor treatment more effectively. AIMS: to prospectively evaluate the one-year risk factors for surgery in refractory/severe CD and to generate a risk matrix for predicting the probability of surgery at one year. CD patients needing a disease re-assessment at our tertiary IBD centre underwent clinical, laboratory, endoscopy and bowel sonography (BS) examinations within one week. The optimal cut-off values in predicting surgery were identified using ROC curves for Simple Endoscopic Score for CD (SES-CD), bowel wall thickness (BWT) at BS, and small bowel CD extension at BS. Binary logistic regression and Cox's regression were then carried out. Finally, the probabilities of surgery were calculated for selected baseline levels of covariates and results were arranged in a prediction matrix. Of 100 CD patients, 30 underwent surgery within one year. SES-CD©9 (OR 15.3; p<0.001), BWT©7 mm (OR 15.8; p<0.001), small bowel CD extension at BS©33 cm (OR 8.23; p<0.001) and stricturing/penetrating behavior (OR 4.3; p<0.001) were the only independent factors predictive of surgery at one-year based on binary logistic and Cox's regressions. Our matrix model combined these risk factors and the probability of surgery ranged from 0.48% to 87.5% (sixteen combinations). Our risk matrix combining clinical, endoscopic and ultrasonographic findings can accurately predict the one-year risk of surgery in patients with severe/refractory CD requiring a disease re-evaluation. This tool could be of value in clinical practice, serving as the basis for a tailored management of CD patients.

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, StephenW.; Walker, William Q.

2011-01-01

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Method for evaluating moisture tensions of soils using spectral data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, John B. (Inventor)

1982-01-01

A method is disclosed which permits evaluation of soil moisture utilizing remote sensing. Spectral measurements at a plurality of different wavelengths are taken with respect to sample soils and the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) measurements produced are submitted to regression analysis for development therefrom of predictable equations calculated for orderly relationships. Soil of unknown reflective and unknown soil moisture tension is thereafter analyzed for bidirectional reflectance and the resulting data utilized to determine the soil moisture tension of the soil as well as providing a prediction as to the bidirectional reflectance of the soil at other moisture tensions.

Escherichia coli promoter sequences predict in vitro RNA polymerase selectivity.

PubMed

Mulligan, M E; Hawley, D K; Entriken, R; McClure, W R

1984-01-11

We describe a simple algorithm for computing a homology score for Escherichia coli promoters based on DNA sequence alone. The homology score was related to 31 values, measured in vitro, of RNA polymerase selectivity, which we define as the product KBk2, the apparent second order rate constant for open complex formation. We found that promoter strength could be predicted to within a factor of +/-4.1 in KBk2 over a range of 10(4) in the same parameter. The quantitative evaluation was linked to an automated (Apple II) procedure for searching and evaluating possible promoters in DNA sequence files.

Evaluation of factors important in modeling plasma concentrations of tetracycline hydrochloride administered in water in swine.

PubMed

Mason, Sharon E; Almond, Glen W; Riviere, Jim E; Baynes, Ronald E

2012-10-01

To model the plasma tetracycline concentrations in swine (Sus scrofa domestica) treated with medication administered in water and determine the factors that contribute to the most accurate predictions of measured plasma drug concentrations. Plasma tetracycline concentrations measured in blood samples from 3 populations of swine. Data from previous studies provided plasma tetracycline concentrations that were measured in blood samples collected from 1 swine population at 0, 4, 8, 12, 24, 32, 48, 56, 72, 80, 96, and 104 hours and from 2 swine populations at 0, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours hours during administration of tetracycline hydrochloride dissolved in water. A 1-compartment pharmacostatistical model was used to analyze 5 potential covariate schemes and determine factors most important in predicting the plasma concentrations of tetracycline in swine. 2 models most accurately predicted the tetracycline plasma concentrations in the 3 populations of swine. Factors of importance were body weight or age of pig, ambient temperature, concentration of tetracycline in water, and water use per unit of time. The factors found to be of importance, combined with knowledge of the individual pharmacokinetic and chemical properties of medications currently approved for administration in water, may be useful in more prudent administration of approved medications administered to swine. Factors found to be important in pharmacostatistical models may allow prediction of plasma concentrations of tetracycline or other commonly used medications administered in water. The ability to predict in vivo concentrations of medication in a population of food animals can be combined with bacterial minimum inhibitory concentrations to decrease the risk of developing antimicrobial resistance.

The McCarron-Dial System--An Approach to Clinical, Vocational, and Educational Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dial, Jack G.; And Others

The McCarron-Dial System is useful for both vocational and clinical evaluation of neuropsychologically disabled adults. Five factors (verbal-cognitive, sensory, motor, emotional, and integration coping) are used to predict vocational competency, which is measured by work samples and behavior scales, during the first twelve months of a client's…

An Improved Decision Tree for Predicting a Major Product in Competing Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graham, Kate J.

2014-01-01

When organic chemistry students encounter competing reactions, they are often overwhelmed by the task of evaluating multiple factors that affect the outcome of a reaction. The use of a decision tree is a useful tool to teach students to evaluate a complex situation and propose a likely outcome. Specifically, a decision tree can help students…

Predicting Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms in Children with ASD: Evaluation of a Contextual Model of Parental Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McRae, Elizabeth M.; Stoppelbein, Laura; O'Kelley, Sarah E.; Fite, Paula; Greening, Leilani

2018-01-01

Parental adjustment, parenting behaviors, and child routines have been linked to internalizing and externalizing child behavior. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate a comprehensive model examining relations among these variables in children with ASD and their parents. Based on Sameroff's Transactional Model of Development (Sameroff…

Determining the potential productivity of food crops in controlled environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bugbee, Bruce

1992-01-01

The quest to determine the maximum potential productivity of food crops is greatly benefitted by crop growth models. Many models have been developed to analyze and predict crop growth in the field, but it is difficult to predict biological responses to stress conditions. Crop growth models for the optimal environments of a Controlled Environment Life Support System (CELSS) can be highly predictive. This paper discusses the application of a crop growth model to CELSS; the model is used to evaluate factors limiting growth. The model separately evaluates the following four physiological processes: absorption of PPF by photosynthetic tissue, carbon fixation (photosynthesis), carbon use (respiration), and carbon partitioning (harvest index). These constituent processes determine potentially achievable productivity. An analysis of each process suggests that low harvest index is the factor most limiting to yield. PPF absorption by plant canopies and respiration efficiency are also of major importance. Research concerning productivity in a CELSS should emphasize: (1) the development of gas exchange techniques to continuously monitor plant growth rates and (2) environmental techniques to reduce plant height in communities.

Doing the counter-regulation shuffle: The importance of flexibility and hunger for predicting food consumption following a preload.

PubMed

Broadbent, Jaclyn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Dennerstein, Michelle; Greenwood, Jesse; Hancock, Naomi; Thavapalan, Nithyyaa; White, Melissa

This study utilised the preload paradigm to evaluate whether trait-like dieting attitudes and behaviours (dietary restraint and flexibility in dieting rules) and context-specific factors (negative mood and hunger) predict food consumption among male and female participants. Following a high calorie preload, 79 participants aged 18-40 completed a deceptive taste test in which they were encouraged to eat as much of the taste test foods as desired, and this ad libitum intake was measured. Although each predictor (except negative mood) predicted consumption when tested individually, regression analyses revealed that dieting flexibility and current hunger were the strongest unique predictors of intake. Mood failed to directly predict food consumption, nor did it moderate the relationship between restraint and food intake. Collectively, findings suggest that emphasis on dietary restraint in preload studies may be misplaced, as other proximal and stable factors may better predict food consumption. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting adverse neonatal outcomes in fetuses with abdominal wall defects using prenatal risk factors.

PubMed

Nicholas, Sara S; Stamilio, David M; Dicke, Jeffery M; Gray, Diana L; Macones, George A; Odibo, Anthony O

2009-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether prenatal variables can predict adverse neonatal outcomes in fetuses with abdominal wall defects. A retrospective cohort study that used ultrasound and neonatal records for all cases of gastroschisis and omphalocele seen over a 16-year period. Cases with adverse neonatal outcomes were compared with noncases for multiple candidate predictive factors. Univariable and multivariable statistical methods were used to develop the prediction models, and effectiveness was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Of 80 fetuses with gastroschisis, 29 (36%) had the composite adverse outcome, compared with 15 of 33 (47%) live neonates with omphalocele. Intrauterine growth restriction was the only significant variable in gastroschisis, whereas exteriorized liver was the only predictor in omphalocele. The areas under the curve for the prediction models with gastroschisis and omphalocele are 0.67 and 0.74, respectively. Intrauterine growth restriction and exteriorization of the liver are significant predictors of adverse neonatal outcome with gastroschisis and omphalocele.

The mediating role of internet connection, virtual friends, and mood in predicting loneliness among students with and without learning disabilities in different educational environments.

PubMed

Sharabi, Adi; Margalit, Malka

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a multidimensional model of loneliness as related to risk and protective factors among adolescents with learning disabilities (LD). The authors aimed to identify factors that mediated loneliness among 716 adolescents in Grades 10 through 12 who were studying in high schools or in Youth Education Centers for at-risk populations. There were 334 students with LD, divided into subgroups according to disability severity (three levels of testing accommodations), and 382 students without LD. Five instruments measured participants' socioemotional characteristics: loneliness, Internet communication, mood, and social and academic achievement-oriented motivation. Using structural equation modeling, the results confirmed the loneliness model and revealed that the use of the Internet to support interpersonal communication with friends predicted less intense loneliness, whereas virtual friendships with individuals whom students knew only online predicted greater loneliness. Positive and negative mood and motivation also predicted students' loneliness. In addition, the severity of LD predicted stronger loneliness feelings.

Predictive Factors for Insufficient Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery: Does Obstructive Sleep Apnea Influence Weight Loss?

PubMed

de Raaff, Christel A L; Coblijn, Usha K; de Vries, Nico; Heymans, Martijn W; van den Berg, Bob T J; van Tets, Willem F; van Wagensveld, Bart A

2016-05-01

Important endpoints of bariatric surgery are weight loss and improvement of comorbidities, of which obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is the highest accompanying comorbidity (70%). This study aimed to evaluate the influence of OSA on weight loss after bariatric surgery and to provide predictive factors for insufficient weight loss (defined as ≤50% excess weight loss (EWL)) at 1 year follow-up. All consecutive patients, who underwent primary laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy between 2006 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with data on preoperative apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and pre- and postoperative body mass index (BMI) were included. After surgery, the percentage excess weight loss (%EWL) and BMI changes were compared between preoperatively diagnosed OSA-, subdivided in mild, moderate, and severe OSA, and non-OSA patients. Multivariable logistic regression analysis evaluated predictive factors for ≤50% EWL. A total of 816 patients, 522 (64%) with and 294 (36%) without OSA, were included. After 1 year, OSA patients achieved less %EWL than non-OSA patients (65.5 SD 20.7 versus 70.3 SD 21.0; p < 0.01). The lowest %EWL was seen in severe OSA patients (61.7 SD 20.2). However, when adjusted for waist circumference, BMI, and age, no effect of OSA was seen on %EWL or changes in BMI. Although AHI, gender, age, BMI, type of surgery, and type II diabetes were predictive factors for ≤50% EWL (area under the curve 0.778), the AHI as variable was of little importance. The presence of OSA does not individually impair weight loss after bariatric surgery.

Remission of Intermediate Uveitis: Incidence and Predictive Factors.

PubMed

Kempen, John H; Gewaily, Dina Y; Newcomb, Craig W; Liesegang, Teresa L; Kaçmaz, R Oktay; Levy-Clarke, Grace A; Nussenblatt, Robert B; Rosenbaum, James T; Sen, H Nida; Suhler, Eric B; Thorne, Jennifer E; Foster, C Stephen; Jabs, Douglas A; Payal, Abhishek; Fitzgerald, Tonetta D

2016-04-01

To evaluate the incidence of remission among patients with intermediate uveitis; to identify factors potentially predictive of remission. Retrospective cohort study. Involved eyes of patients with primary noninfectious intermediate uveitis at 4 academic ocular inflammation subspecialty practices, followed sufficiently long to meet the remission outcome definition, were studied retrospectively by standardized chart review data. Remission of intermediate uveitis was defined as a lack of inflammatory activity at ≥2 visits spanning ≥90 days in the absence of any corticosteroid or immunosuppressant medications. Factors potentially predictive of intermediate uveitis remission were evaluated using survival analysis. Among 849 eyes (of 510 patients) with intermediate uveitis followed over 1934 eye-years, the incidence of intermediate uveitis remission was 8.6/100 eye-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4-10.1). Factors predictive of disease remission included prior pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) (hazard ratio [HR] [vs no PPV] = 2.39; 95% CI, 1.42-4.00), diagnosis of intermediate uveitis within the last year (HR [vs diagnosis >5 years ago] =3.82; 95% CI, 1.91-7.63), age ≥45 years (HR [vs age <45 years] = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.03-3.11), female sex (HR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.04-2.49), and Hispanic race/ethnicity (HR [vs white race] = 2.81; 95% CI, 1.23-6.41). Presence/absence of a systemic inflammatory disease, laterality of uveitis, and smoking status were not associated with differential incidence. Our results suggest that intermediate uveitis is a chronic disease with an overall low rate of remission. Recently diagnosed patients and older, female, and Hispanic patients were more likely to remit. With regard to management, pars plana vitrectomy was associated with increased probability of remission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Early prediction of the neurological result at 12 months in newborns at neurological risk].

PubMed

Herbón, F; Garibotti, G; Moguilevsky, J

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the Amiel-Tison neurological examination (AT) and cranial ultrasound at term for predicting the neurological result at 12 months in newborns with neurological risk. The study included 89 newborns with high risk of neurological damage, who were discharged from the Neonatal Intensive Care of the Hospital Zonal Bariloche, Argentina. The assessment consisted of a neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term, and neurological examination and evaluation of development at 12 months. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictor value was calculated. The relationship between perinatal factors and neurodevelopment at 12 month of age was also calculated using logistic regression models. Seventy children completed the follow-up. At 12 months of age, 14% had an abnormal neurological examination, and 17% abnormal development. The neurological examination and the cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity to predict abnormal neurodevelopment. At 12 months, 93% of newborns with normal AT showed normal neurological results, and 86% normal development. Among newborns with normal cranial ultrasound the percentages were 90 and 81%, respectively. Among children with three or more perinatal risk factors, the frequency of abnormalities in the neurological response was 5.4 times higher than among those with fewer risk factors, and abnormal development was 3.5 times more frequent. The neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity but high negative predictive value for the neurodevelopment at 12 months. Three or more perinatal risk factors were associated with neurodevelopment abnormalities at 12 months of age. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Proton Range Uncertainty Due to Bone Cement Injected Into the Vertebra in Radiation Therapy Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Young Kyung; Hwang, Ui-Jung; Shin, Dongho, E-mail: dongho@ncc.re.kr

2011-10-01

We wanted to evaluate the influence of bone cement on the proton range and to derive a conversion factor predicting the range shift by correcting distorted computed tomography (CT) data as a reference to determine whether the correction is needed. Two CT datasets were obtained with and without a bone cement disk placed in a water phantom. Treatment planning was performed on a set of uncorrected CT images with the bone cement disk, and the verification plan was applied to the same set of CT images with an effective CT number for the bone cement disk. The effective CT numbermore » was determined by measuring the actual proton range with the bone cement disk. The effects of CT number, thicknesses, and position of bone cement on the proton range were evaluated in the treatment planning system (TPS) to draw a conversion factor predicting the range shift by correcting the CT number of bone cement. The effective CT number of bone cement was 260 Hounsfield units (HU). The calculated proton range for native CT data was significantly shorter than the measured proton range. However, the calculated range for the corrected CT data with the effective CT number coincided exactly with the measured range. The conversion factor was 209.6 [HU . cm/mm] for bone cement and predicted the range shift by approximately correcting the CT number. We found that the heterogeneity of bone cement could cause incorrect proton ranges in treatment plans using CT images. With an effective CT number of bone cement derived from the proton range and relative stopping power, a more actual proton range could be calculated in the TPS. The conversion factor could predict the necessity for CT data correction with sufficient accuracy.« less

Remission of Intermediate Uveitis: Incidence and Predictive Factors

PubMed Central

Kempen, John H.; Gewaily, Dina Y.; Newcomb, Craig W.; Liesegang, Teresa L.; Kaçmaz, R. Oktay; Levy-Clarke, Grace A.; Nussenblatt, Robert B.; Rosenbaum, James T.; Sen, H. Nida; Suhler, Eric B.; Thorne, Jennifer E.; Foster, C. Stephen; Jabs, Douglas A.; Payal, Abhishek; Fitzgerald, Tonetta D.

2016-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the incidence of remission among patients with intermediate uveitis; to identify factors potentially predictive of remission. Design Retrospective cohort study. Methods Involved eyes of patients with primary non-infectious intermediate uveitis at 4 academic ocular inflammation subspecialty practices, followed sufficiently long to meet the remission outcome definition, were studied retrospectively by standardized chart review data. Remission of intermediate uveitis was defined as a lack of inflammatory activity at ≥2 visits spanning ≥90 days in the absence of any corticosteroid or immunosuppressant medications. Factors potentially predictive of intermediate uveitis remission were evaluated using survival analysis. Results Among 849 eyes (of 510 patients) with intermediate uveitis followed over 1,934 eye-years, the incidence of intermediate uveitis remission was 8.6/100 eye-years (95% confidence interval (CI), 7.4–10.1). Factors predictive of disease remission included prior pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) (HR (vs. no PPV)=2.39; 95% CI, 1.42–4.00), diagnosis of intermediate uveitis within the last year (vs. diagnosis >5 years ago)=3.82; 95% CI, 1.91–7.63), age ≥45 years (HR (vs. age <45 years)=1.79; 95% CI, 1.03–3.11), female sex (HR=1.61; 95% CI, 1.04–2.49), and Hispanic race/ethnicity (HR (vs. white race)=2.81; 95% CI, 1.23–6.41). Presence/absence of a systemic inflammatory disease, laterality of uveitis, and smoking status were not associated with differential incidence. Conclusions Our results suggest that intermediate uveitis is a chronic disease with an overall low rate of remission. Recently diagnosed cases, and older, female and Hispanic cases were more likely to remit. With regards to management, pars plana vitrectomy was associated with increased probability of remission. PMID:26772874

Factors affecting femoral rotational angle based on the posterior condylar axis in gap-based navigation-assisted total knee arthroplasty for valgus knee.

PubMed

Lee, Sung-Sahn; Lee, Yong-In; Kim, Dong-Uk; Lee, Dae-Hee; Moon, Young-Wan

2018-01-01

Achieving proper rotational alignment of the femoral component in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for valgus knee is challenging because of lateral condylar hypoplasia and lateral cartilage erosion. Gap-based navigation-assisted TKA enables surgeons to determine the angle of femoral component rotation (FCR) based on the posterior condylar axis. This study evaluated the possible factors that affect the rotational alignment of the femoral component based on the posterior condylar axis. Between 2008 and 2016, 28 knees were enrolled. The dependent variable for this study was FCR based on the posterior condylar axis, which was obtained from the navigation system archives. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that might predict FCR, including body mass index (BMI), Kellgren-Lawrence grade (K-L grade), lateral distal femoral angles obtained from the navigation system and radiographs (NaviLDFA, XrayLDFA), hip-knee-ankle (HKA) axis, lateral gap under varus stress (LGVS), medial gap under valgus stress (MGVS), and side-to-side difference (STSD, MGVS - LGVS). The mean FCR was 6.1° ± 2.0°. Of all the potentially predictive factors evaluated in this study, only NaviLDFA (β = -0.668) and XrayLDFA (β = -0.714) predicted significantly FCR. The LDFAs, as determined using radiographs and the navigation system, were both predictive of the rotational alignment of the femoral component based on the posterior condylar axis in gap-based TKA for valgus knee. A 1° increment with NaviLDFA led to a 0.668° decrement in FCR, and a 1° increment with XrayLDFA led to a 0.714° decrement. This suggests that symmetrical lateral condylar hypoplasia of the posterior and distal side occurs in lateral compartment end-stage osteoarthritis with valgus deformity.

Usability Prediction & Ranking of SDLC Models Using Fuzzy Hierarchical Usability Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Deepak; Ahlawat, Anil K.; Sagar, Kalpna

2017-06-01

Evaluation of software quality is an important aspect for controlling and managing the software. By such evaluation, improvements in software process can be made. The software quality is significantly dependent on software usability. Many researchers have proposed numbers of usability models. Each model considers a set of usability factors but do not cover all the usability aspects. Practical implementation of these models is still missing, as there is a lack of precise definition of usability. Also, it is very difficult to integrate these models into current software engineering practices. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper aims to define the term `usability' using the proposed hierarchical usability model with its detailed taxonomy. The taxonomy considers generic evaluation criteria for identifying the quality components, which brings together factors, attributes and characteristics defined in various HCI and software models. For the first time, the usability model is also implemented to predict more accurate usability values. The proposed system is named as fuzzy hierarchical usability model that can be easily integrated into the current software engineering practices. In order to validate the work, a dataset of six software development life cycle models is created and employed. These models are ranked according to their predicted usability values. This research also focuses on the detailed comparison of proposed model with the existing usability models.

Evaluating impact level of different factors in environmental impact assessment for incinerator plants using GM (1, N) model.

PubMed

Pai, T Y; Chiou, R J; Wen, H H

2008-01-01

In this study, the impact levels in environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports of 10 incinerator plants were quantified and discussed. The relationship between the quantified impact levels and the plant scale factors of BeiTou, LiZe, BaLi, LuTsao, RenWu, PingTung, SiJhou and HsinChu were constructed, and the impact levels of the GangShan (GS) and YongKong (YK) plants were predicted using grey model GM (1, N). Finally, the effects of plant scale factors on impact levels were evaluated using grey model GM (1, N) too. According to the predicted results of GM, the relative errors of topography/geology/soil, air quality, hydrology/water quality, solid waste, noise, terrestrial fauna/flora, aquatic fauna/flora and traffic in the GS plant were 17%, 14%, 15%, 17%, 75%, 16%, 13%, and 37%, respectively. The relative errors of the same environmental items in the YK plant were 1%, 18%, 10%, 40%, 37%, 3%, 25% and 33%, respectively. According to GM (1, N), design capacity (DC) and heat value (HV) were the plant scale factors that affected the impact levels significantly in each environmental item, and thus were the most significant plant scale factors. GM (1, N) was effective in predicting the environmental impact and analyzing the reasonableness of the impact. If there is an EIA for a new incinerator plant to be reviewed in the future, the official committee of the Taiwan EPA could review the reasonableness of impact levels in EIA reports quickly.

Do the conventional clinicopathologic parameters predict for response and survival in head and neck cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy?

PubMed

Fonseca, E; Cruz, J J; Dueñas, A; Gómez, A; Sánchez, P; Martín, G; Nieto, A; Soria, P; Muñoz, A; Gómez, J L; Pardal, J L

1996-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy for head and neck carcinoma is still an important treatment modality. The prognostic value of patient and tumor parameters has been extensively evaluated in several trials, yielding mixed results. We report the prognostic factors emerging from a group of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. From April 1986 to June 1992, 149 consecutive patients received cisplatin-5-fluorouracil-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. After four courses of chemotherapy, patients underwent local-regional treatment with surgery, radiation or both. A variety of patient and tumor characteristics were evaluated as predictors for response to chemotherapy and survival. The complete response, partial response and no response rates to NAC were 52%, 33% and 15%, respectively. No parameters predicted response to chemotherapy. At a maximum follow-up of 87 months, overall survival was 39% and disease-free survival was 49%. Variables shown to be predictors of survival in univariate analyses were age, performance status, histology, site, T, N, stage, and response to chemotherapy. Using the Cox regression analysis, only complete response to induction chemotherapy (P = 0.0006), performance status (P = 0.03), stage (P = 0.01), age (P = 0.03) and primary tumor site (P = 0.04) emerged as independent prognostic factors for survival. Complete response to chemotherapy was confirmed as the strongest prognostic factor influencing survival. However, conventional clinicopathologic factors did not predict response, hence, potential prognostic biologic and molecular factors for response must be sought. At present, much effort must be made for the improvement of the complete response rate, which seems to be a requisite to prolong survival.

High-resolution endoscopic ultrasound imaging and the number of needle passages are significant factors predicting high yield of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration for pancreatic solid masses without an on-site cytopathologist

PubMed Central

Jeong, Seok Hoo; Yoon, Hyun Hwa; Kim, Eui Joo; Kim, Yoon Jae; Kim, Yeon Suk; Cho, Jae Hee

2017-01-01

Abstract Endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) is the accurate diagnostic method for pancreatic masses and its accuracy is affected by various FNA methods and EUS equipment. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the instrumental and methodologic factors for determining the diagnostic yield of EUS-FNA for pancreatic solid masses without an on-site cytopathology evaluation. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 260 patients (265 pancreatic solid masses) who underwent EUS-FNA. We compared historical conventional EUS groups with high-resolution imaging devices and finally analyzed various factors affecting EUS-FNA accuracy. In total, 265 pancreatic solid masses of 260 patients were included in this study. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of EUS-FNA for pancreatic solid masses without on-site cytopathology evaluation were 83.4%, 81.8%, 100.0%, 100.0%, and 34.3%, respectively. In comparison with conventional image group, high-resolution image group showed the increased accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of EUS-FNA (71.3% vs 92.7%, 68.9% vs 91.9%, and 100% vs 100%, respectively). On the multivariate analysis with various instrumental and methodologic factors, high-resolution imaging (P = 0.040, odds ratio = 3.28) and 3 or more needle passes (P = 0.039, odds ratio = 2.41) were important factors affecting diagnostic yield of pancreatic solid masses. High-resolution imaging and 3 or more passes were the most significant factors influencing diagnostic yield of EUS-FNA in patients with pancreatic solid masses without an on-site cytopathologist. PMID:28079803

Cytologic anaplasia is a prognostic factor in osteosarcoma biopsies, but mitotic rate or extent of spontaneous tumor necrosis are not: a critique of the College of American Pathologists Bone Biopsy template.

PubMed

Cates, Justin Mm; Dupont, William D

2017-01-01

The current College of American Pathologists cancer template for reporting biopsies of bone tumors recommends including information that is of unproven prognostic significance for osteosarcoma, such as the presence of spontaneous tumor necrosis and mitotic rate. Conversely, the degree of cytologic anaplasia (degree of differentiation) is not reported in this template. This retrospective cohort study of 125 patients with high-grade osteosarcoma was performed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these factors in diagnostic biopsy specimens in predicting the clinical outcome and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to adjust survival analyses for well-established prognostic factors. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for good chemotherapy response (≥90% tumor necrosis). Osteosarcomas with severe anaplasia were independently associated with increased overall and disease-free survival, but mitotic rate and spontaneous necrosis had no prognostic impact after controlling for other confounding factors. Mitotic rate showed a trend towards increased odds of a good histologic response, but this effect was diminished after controlling for other predictive factors. Neither spontaneous necrosis nor the degree of cytologic anaplasia observed in biopsy specimens was predictive of a good response to chemotherapy. Mitotic rate and spontaneous tumor necrosis observed in pretreatment biopsy specimens of high-grade osteosarcoma are not strong independent prognostic factors for clinical outcome or predictors of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Therefore, reporting these parameters for osteosarcoma, as recommended in the College of American Pathologists Bone Biopsy template, does not appear to have clinical utility. In contrast, histologic grading schemes for osteosarcoma based on the degree of cytologic anaplasia may have independent prognostic value and should continue to be evaluated.

Tumor budding as a novel predictor of occult metastasis in cT2N0 tongue squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Sakata, Junki; Yamana, Keisuke; Yoshida, Ryoji; Matsuoka, Yuichiro; Kawahara, Kenta; Arita, Hidetaka; Nakashima, Hikaru; Nagata, Masashi; Hirosue, Akiyuki; Kawaguchi, Sho; Gohara, Shunsuke; Nagao, Yuka; Hiraki, Akimitsu; Shinohara, Masanori; Toya, Ryo; Murakami, Ryuji; Nakayama, Hideki

2018-06-01

Occult neck metastasis is an important prognostic factor in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) who are deemed clinically negative for neck metastasis. The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors for occult neck metastasis arising from TSCC and to determine patient prognosis. Ninety-seven patients with cT2N0 TSCC who underwent surgical resection of their primary lesion as initial therapy were enrolled in this retrospective study. Cutoff values for depth of invasion (≥3.3 mm) and the tumor budding score (≥4) were determined using receiver operator characteristic analyses. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that a tumor budding score ≥4 is a significant independent predictive factor for the occurrence of occult neck metastasis, which in turn is a significant independent prognostic factor. When evaluating tumor budding, we demonstrated greater interobserver and intraobserver agreement when using immunohistochemical staining for cytokeratin AE1/AE3 than with hematoxylin and eosin staining (HE). We conclude that the evaluation of tumor budding is effective for identifying populations at high risk of occult neck metastasis, which will enable the planning of appropriate therapeutic strategies for patients with cT2N0 TSCC. Furthermore, cytokeratin staining is recommended over HE staining for simpler and more accurate evaluation of tumor budding. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of soil organic carbon partition coefficients by soil column liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Guo, Rongbo; Liang, Xinmiao; Chen, Jiping; Wu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Qing; Martens, Dieter; Kettrup, Antonius

2004-04-30

To avoid the limitation of the widely used prediction methods of soil organic carbon partition coefficients (KOC) from hydrophobic parameters, e.g., the n-octanol/water partition coefficients (KOW) and the reversed phase high performance liquid chromatographic (RP-HPLC) retention factors, the soil column liquid chromatographic (SCLC) method was developed for KOC prediction. The real soils were used as the packing materials of RP-HPLC columns, and the correlations between the retention factors of organic compounds on soil columns (ksoil) and KOC measured by batch equilibrium method were studied. Good correlations were achieved between ksoil and KOC for three types of soils with different properties. All the square of the correlation coefficients (R2) of the linear regression between log ksoil and log KOC were higher than 0.89 with standard deviations of less than 0.21. In addition, the prediction of KOC from KOW and the RP-HPLC retention factors on cyanopropyl (CN) stationary phase (kCN) was comparatively evaluated for the three types of soils. The results show that the prediction of KOC from kCN and KOW is only applicable to some specific types of soils. The results obtained in the present study proved that the SCLC method is appropriate for the KOC prediction for different types of soils, however the applicability of using hydrophobic parameters to predict KOC largely depends on the properties of soil concerned.

[Predictive factors associated with severity of asthma exacerbations].

PubMed

Atiş, Sibel; Kaplan, Eylem Sercan; Ozge, Cengiz; Bayindir, Suzan

2008-01-01

Several factors have been accused for asthma exacerbations, however, very few studies have evaluated whether different factors predict severity of asthma exacerbation. We aimed to determine the predictive factors for severity of asthma exacerbation. Retrospective analysis of data on 93 patients visited our emergency-department because of asthma exacerbation was reviewed. Hospitalization in intensive care unit and/or intubation because of asthma was accepted as the criteria for severe exacerbation. Logistic regression analysis estimated the strength of association of each variable, potentially related to severe asthmatic exacerbation, with severe/very severe as compared to mild/moderate asthmatic exacerbation. Independent variables included in the analysis were age, sex, smoking history, inhaler steroid using, compliance with medication, chronic asthma severity, presence of additional atopic diseases, prick test positivity, provocative factors, number of short-acting beta(2)-agonist using, number of visits to emergency department for asthma over one year period, previous severe exacerbation, pulmonary functions, and blood eosinophil count. 20 were severe/very severe and 73 mild/moderate asthmatic exacerbation. Frequent using of short-acting beta(2)-agonist (OR= 1.5, 95% CI= 1.08-5.3, p= 0.003), noncompliance with medication (OR= 3.6, 95% CI= 1.3-9.9, p= 0.013), previous severe asthmatic exacerbation (OR= 3.8, 95% CI= 1.48-10.01, p= 0.005) and recent admission to hospital (OR= 2.9, 95% CI= 1.07-8.09, p= 0.037) were found to be predictive factors for severe asthmatic exacerbation. Different predictive factors, in particular frequent using of short-acting beta(2)-agonist and noncompliance with medication may be associated with severe asthma exacerbations compared to milder exacerbations. This suggests different mechanisms are responsible for severity of asthma exacerbation.

Mild cognitive impairment as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease dementia.

PubMed

Hoogland, Jeroen; Boel, Judith A; de Bie, Rob M A; Geskus, Ronald B; Schmand, Ben A; Dalrymple-Alford, John C; Marras, Connie; Adler, Charles H; Goldman, Jennifer G; Tröster, Alexander I; Burn, David J; Litvan, Irene; Geurtsen, Gert J

2017-07-01

The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society criteria for mild cognitive impairment in PD were recently formulated. The aim of this international study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the comprehensive (level II) version of these criteria by assessment of their contribution to the hazard of PD dementia. Individual patient data were selected from four separate studies on cognition in PD that provided information on demographics, motor examination, depression, neuropsychological examination suitable for application of level II criteria, and longitudinal follow-up for conversion to dementia. Survival analysis evaluated the predictive value of level II criteria for cognitive decline toward dementia as expressed by the relative hazard of dementia. A total of 467 patients were included. The analyses showed a clear contribution of impairment according to level II mild cognitive impairment criteria, age, and severity of PD motor symptoms to the hazard of dementia. There was a trend of increasing hazard of dementia with declining neuropsychological performance. This is the first large international study evaluating the predictive validity of level II mild cognitive impairment criteria for PD. The results showed a clear and unique contribution of classification according to level II criteria to the hazard of PD dementia. This finding supports their predictive validity and shows that they contribute important new information on the hazard of dementia, beyond known demographic and PD-specific factors of influence. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

PubMed

Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

2017-10-01

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value<0.001), whereas RDW is not a prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value<0.001), and MEWS is not an independent prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-value<0.001). The constructed model is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually (P-value<0.01). Verification of the internal validity of the models by bootstrapping is favorable. BISAP and serum Ca2+ have high predictive value for the severity of AP. However, the model built by combining BISAP and serum Ca2+ is remarkably superior to those of BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually. Furthermore, this model is simple, practical and appropriate for clinical use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Predicting risk for portal vein thrombosis in acute pancreatitis patients: A comparison of radical basis function artificial neural network and logistic regression models.

PubMed

Fei, Yang; Hu, Jian; Gao, Kun; Tu, Jianfeng; Li, Wei-Qin; Wang, Wei

2017-06-01

To construct a radical basis function (RBF) artificial neural networks (ANNs) model to predict the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP)-induced portal vein thrombosis. The analysis included 353 patients with AP who had admitted between January 2011 and December 2015. RBF ANNs model and logistic regression model were constructed based on eleven factors relevant to AP respectively. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in two models. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by RBF ANNs model for PVT were 73.3%, 91.4%, 68.8%, 93.0% and 87.7%, respectively. There were significant differences between the RBF ANNs and logistic regression models in these parameters (P<0.05). In addition, a comparison of the area under receiver operating characteristic curves of the two models showed a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). The RBF ANNs model is more likely to predict the occurrence of PVT induced by AP than logistic regression model. D-dimer, AMY, Hct and PT were important prediction factors of approval for AP-induced PVT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protective Factors Against Depression and Suicidal Behaviour in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Breton, Jean-Jacques; Labelle, Réal; Berthiaume, Claude; Royer, Chantal; St-Georges, Marie; Ricard, Dominique; Abadie, Pascale; Gérardin, Priscille; Cohen, David; Guilé, Jean-Marc

2015-01-01

Objectives: To examine whether protective factors in the Protection for Adolescent Depression Study (PADS) moderate the impact of stressful events on depression and suicidal behaviour in the community and a clinical setting; and to study the influence of sex. Method: Participants were 283 adolescents from the community and 119 from a mood disorder clinic in Montreal. The participants were evaluated on 6 instruments measuring individual risk and protective factors. Descriptive analyses and univariate and multiple logistic regression models were carried out. Results: Risk factors predicted higher levels of depression and presence of suicidal behaviour, and protective factors predicted lower levels of depression and absence of suicidal behaviour, as expected under the vulnerability-resilience stress model. Several sex differences were observed in terms of the predictive power of risk factors (for example, hopelessness among girls and keep to themselves among boys) and protective factors (for example, focusing on the positive among girls and self-discovery among boys). Conclusions: Findings from the PADS suggest that protective factors moderate the impact of stress on depression and suicidal behaviour. Developing protection appears important in the presence of chronic conditions, such as depressive disorders, to reduce the likelihood of further episodes. The influence of sex makes it all the more relevant to target different factors for boys and girls to increase protection and decrease risk in prevention and intervention programs. PMID:25886672

Predicting Risk of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Patients with Glaucoma: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Gracitelli, Carolina P B; Tatham, Andrew J; Boer, Erwin R; Abe, Ricardo Y; Diniz-Filho, Alberto; Rosen, Peter N; Medeiros, Felipe A

2015-01-01

To evaluate the ability of longitudinal Useful Field of View (UFOV) and simulated driving measurements to predict future occurrence of motor vehicle collision (MVC) in drivers with glaucoma. Prospective observational cohort study. 117 drivers with glaucoma followed for an average of 2.1 ± 0.5 years. All subjects had standard automated perimetry (SAP), UFOV, driving simulator, and cognitive assessment obtained at baseline and every 6 months during follow-up. The driving simulator evaluated reaction times to high and low contrast peripheral divided attention stimuli presented while negotiating a winding country road, with central driving task performance assessed as "curve coherence". Drivers with MVC during follow-up were identified from Department of Motor Vehicle records. Survival models were used to evaluate the ability of driving simulator and UFOV to predict MVC over time, adjusting for potential confounding factors. Mean age at baseline was 64.5 ± 12.6 years. 11 of 117 (9.4%) drivers had a MVC during follow-up. In the multivariable models, low contrast reaction time was significantly predictive of MVC, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.19 per 1 SD slower reaction time (95% CI, 1.30 to 3.69; P = 0.003). UFOV divided attention was also significantly predictive of MVC with a HR of 1.98 per 1 SD worse (95% CI, 1.10 to 3.57; P = 0.022). Global SAP visual field indices in the better or worse eye were not predictive of MVC. The longitudinal model including driving simulator performance was a better predictor of MVC compared to UFOV (R2 = 0.41 vs R2 = 0.18). Longitudinal divided attention metrics on the UFOV test and during simulated driving were significantly predictive of risk of MVC in glaucoma patients. These findings may help improve the understanding of factors associated with driving impairment related to glaucoma.

What Factors Predict Middle School Students Sign Up for Washington's College Bound Scholarship Program? A Mixed Methods Evaluation. Working Paper 175

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Long, Mark C.; Person, Ann E.; Rooklyn, Jordan

2017-01-01

We investigate factors influencing student sign-ups for Washington State's College Bound Scholarship (CBS) program. We find a substantial share of eligible middle school students fail to sign the CBS, forgoing college financial aid. Student characteristics associated with signing the scholarship parallel characteristics of low-income students who…

Results of third-generation epirubicin/cisplatin/xeloda adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with radically resected gastric cancer.

PubMed

Cainap, Calin; Nagy, Viorica; Seicean, Andrada; Gherman, Alexandra; Laszlo, Istvan; Lisencu, Cosmin; Nadim, Al Hajar; Constantin, Anne-Marie; Cainap, Simona

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of a third-generation chemotherapy regimen in the adjuvant setting to radically operated patients with gastric cancer. This proposed new adjuvant regimen was also compared with a consecutive retrospective cohort of patients treated with the classic McDonald regimen. Starting in 2006, a non-randomized prospective phase II study was conducted at the Institute of Oncology of Cluj-Napoca on 40 patients with stage IB-IV radically resected gastric adenocarcinoma. These patients were administered a chemotherapy regimen already considered to be standard treatment in the metastatic setting: ECX (epirubicin, cisplatin, xeloda) and were compared to a retrospective control group consisting of 54 patients, treated between 2001 and 2006 according to McDonald's trial. In a previous paper, we reported toxicities and the possible predictive factors for these toxicities; in the present article, we report on the results concerning predictive factors on overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS). The proposed ECX treatment was not less effective than the standard suggested by McDonald's trial. Age was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. N3 stage was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS. N ratio >70% was an independent predictive factor for OS and locoregional disease control. The resection margins were independent prognostic factors for OS and DFS. The proposed treatment is not less effective compared with the McDonald's trial. Age was an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. N3 stage represented an independent prognostic factor and N ratio >70% was a predictive factor for OS and DFS. The resection margins were proven to be independent prognostic factors for OS and DFS.

Planning for natural regeneration of hardwoods in the Coastal Plain

Treesearch

Robert L. Johnson

1978-01-01

Hardwood species reproduce through seeding and sprouting. Frequent selective cuttings and small, incomplete openings favor tolerant species; the opposite conditions favor intolerants. Factors to be considered in evaluating and predicting reproduction before harvest are listed.

[Optimization of one-step pelletization technology of Biqiu granules by Plackett-Burman design and Box-Behnken response surface methodology].

PubMed

Zhang, Yan-jun; Liu, Li-li; Hu, Jun-hua; Wu, Yun; Chao, En-xiang; Xiao, Wei

2015-11-01

First with the qualified rate of granules as the evaluation index, significant influencing factors were firstly screened by Plackett-Burman design. Then, with the qualified rate and moisture content as the evaluation indexes, significant factors that affect one-step pelletization technology were further optimized by Box-Behnken design; experimental data were imitated by multiple regression and second-order polynomial equation; and response surface method was used for predictive analysis of optimal technology. The best conditions were as follows: inlet air temperature of 85 degrees C, sample introduction speed of 33 r x min(-1), density of concrete 1. 10. One-step pelletization technology of Biqiu granules by Plackett-Burman design and Box-Behnken response surface methodology was stable and feasible with good predictability, which provided reliable basis for the industrialized production of Biqiu granules.

Development and evaluation of a semi-empirical two-zone dust exposure model for a dusty construction trade.

PubMed

Jones, Rachael M; Simmons, Catherine; Boelter, Fred

2011-06-01

Drywall finishing is a dusty construction activity. We describe a mathematical model that predicts the time-weighted average concentration of respirable and total dusts in the personal breathing zone of the sander, and in the area surrounding joint compound sanding activities. The model represents spatial variation in dust concentrations using two-zones, and temporal variation using an exponential function. Interzone flux and the relationships between respirable and total dusts are described using empirical factors. For model evaluation, we measured dust concentrations in two field studies, including three workers from a commercial contracting crew, and one unskilled worker. Data from the field studies confirm that the model assumptions and parameterization are reasonable and thus validate the modeling approach. Predicted dust C(twa) were in concordance with measured values for the contracting crew, but under estimated measured values for the unskilled worker. Further characterization of skill-related exposure factors is indicated.

Evaluating Shortened Versions of the AUDIT as Screeners for Alcohol Use Problems in a General Population Study.

PubMed

Nayak, Madhabika B; Bond, Jason C; Greenfield, Thomas K

2015-01-01

Efficient alcohol screening measures are important to prevent or treat alcohol use disorders (AUDs). We studied different versions of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) comparing their performance to the full AUDIT and an AUD measure as screeners for alcohol use problems in Goa, India. Data from a general population study on 743 male drinkers aged 18-49 years are reported. Drinkers completed the AUDIT and an AUD measure. We created shorter versions of the AUDIT by (a) collapsing AUDIT item responses into three and two categories and (b) deleting two items with the lowest factor loadings. Each version was evaluated using factor, reliability and validity, and differential item functioning (DIF) analysis by age, education, standard of living index (SLI), and area of residence. A single factor solution was found for each version with lower factor loadings for items on guilt and concern. There were no significant differences among the different AUDIT versions in predicting AUD. No significant DIF was found by education, SLI or area of residence. DIF was observed for the alcohol frequency item by age. The AUDIT may be used with dichotomized response options without loss of predictive validity. A shortened eight-item dichotomized scale can adequately screen for AUDs in Goa when brevity is of paramount importance, although with lower predictive validity. Although the frequency item was endorsed more by older men, there is no evidence that the AUDIT items perform differently in other groups of male drinkers in Goa.

Recidivism in female offenders: PCL-R lifestyle factor and VRAG show predictive validity in a German sample.

PubMed

Eisenbarth, Hedwig; Osterheider, Michael; Nedopil, Norbert; Stadtland, Cornelis

2012-01-01

A clear and structured approach to evidence-based and gender-specific risk assessment of violence in female offenders is high on political and mental health agendas. However, most data on the factors involved in risk-assessment instruments are based on data of male offenders. The aim of the present study was to validate the use of the Psychopathy Checklist Revised (PCL-R), the HCR-20 and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) for the prediction of recidivism in German female offenders. This study is part of the Munich Prognosis Project (MPP). It focuses on a subsample of female delinquents (n = 80) who had been referred for forensic-psychiatric evaluation prior to sentencing. The mean time at risk was 8 years (SD = 5 years; range: 1-18 years). During this time, 31% (n = 25) of the female offenders were reconvicted, 5% (n = 4) for violent and 26% (n = 21) for non-violent re-offenses. The predictive validity of the PCL-R for general recidivism was calculated. Analysis with receiver-operating characteristics revealed that the PCL-R total score, the PCL-R antisocial lifestyle factor, the PCL-R lifestyle factor and the PCL-R impulsive and irresponsible behavioral style factor had a moderate predictive validity for general recidivism (area under the curve, AUC = 0.66, p = 0.02). The VRAG has also demonstrated predictive validity (AUC = 0.72, p = 0.02), whereas the HCR-20 showed no predictive validity. These results appear to provide the first evidence that the PCL-R total score and the antisocial lifestyle factor are predictive for general female recidivism, as has been shown consistently for male recidivists. The implications of these findings for crime prevention, prognosis in women, and future research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factor Structure and Predictive Validity of a Homework Motivation Measure for Use With Middle School Students With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

PubMed

Langberg, Joshua M; Smith, Zoe R; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Molitor, Stephen J; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D; Eadeh, Hana-May; Oddo, Lauren E

2017-08-31

Many students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) exhibit deficits in motivation to pursue long-term goals. Students with ADHD have particular difficulty with motivation to complete homework-related tasks and often fail to complete assignments. Although these problems are common and may impact academic performance, no homework-motivation measures have been validated for use with students with ADHD. The primary goal of the present study was to evaluate the factor structure and predictive validity of a homework-motivation measure based upon the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. A sample of 285 middle school students with ADHD completed the measure, and confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the proposed factor structure and associations with parent and teacher ratings of homework performance. A 2-factor structure emerged, and model fit was excellent. Further, student-rated ability-expectancy beliefs demonstrated significant associations with parent-rated homework problems and performance and with teacher-rated homework performance and percentage of assignments turned in above and beyond ADHD symptoms. Future directions for studying the importance of motivation in students with ADHD are provided, with particular attention to the role that reward sensitivity may play in motivation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Low Expression of Mucin-4 Predicts Poor Prognosis in Patients With Clear-Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Fu, Hangcheng; Liu, Yidong; Xu, Le; Chang, Yuan; Zhou, Lin; Zhang, Weijuan; Yang, Yuanfeng; Xu, Jiejie

2016-01-01

Abstract Mucin-4 (MUC4), a member of membrane-bound mucins, has been reported to exert a large variety of distinctive roles in tumorigenesis of different cancers. MUC4 is aberrantly expressed in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) but its prognostic value is still unveiled. This study aims to assess the clinical significance of MUC4 expression in patients with ccRCC. The expression of MUC4 was assessed by immunohistochemistry in 198 patients with ccRCC who underwent nephrectomy retrospectively in 2003 and 2004. Sixty-seven patients died before the last follow-up in the cohort. Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test was applied to compare survival curves. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the prognostic value of MUC4 expression in overall survival (OS). The predictive nomogram was constructed based on the independent prognostic factors. The calibration was built to evaluate the predictive accuracy of nomogram. In patients with ccRCC, MUC4 expression, which was determined to be an independent prognostic indicator for OS (hazard ratio [HR] 3.891; P < 0.001), was negatively associated with tumor size (P = 0.036), Fuhrman grade (P = 0.044), and OS (P < 0.001). The prognostic accuracy of TNM stage, UCLA Integrated Scoring System (UISS), and Mayo clinic stage, size, grade, and necrosis score (SSIGN) prognostic models was improved when MUC4 expression was added. The independent prognostic factors, pT stage, distant metastases, Fuhrman grade, sarcomatoid, and MUC4 expression were integrated to establish a predictive nomogram with high predictive accuracy. MUC4 expression is an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with ccRCC. PMID:27124015

Predictors of burnout and health status in Samaritans' listening volunteers.

PubMed

Roche, Adeline; Ogden, Jane

2017-12-01

Samaritan listening volunteers provide emotional support to people in distress or suicidal. Samaritans' has high volunteer turnover, which may be due to burnout. This study evaluated the role of demographic and psychosocial factors in predicting Samaritans listening volunteers' burnout and health status. Samaritans' listening volunteers (n = 216) from seven branches across UK completed an online survey to assess their levels of burnout (emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation, personal accomplishment), subjective health status, coping, empathy and social support. Overall, listeners showed low levels of burnout and good health. Regression analysis revealed that higher emotional exhaustion was predicted by younger age and avoidant coping style; higher depersonalisation was predicted by lower empathy fantasy and higher avoidant coping style; lower personal accomplishment scores were predicted by higher empathy personal distress and worse health status was predicted by more hours per week spent on listening duties, lower social support and higher avoidant coping style. Overall, different factors influenced different facets of burnout. However, higher use of avoidant coping style consistently predicted higher burnout and worse health status, suggesting avoidant coping is an important target for intervention.

The Role of Motivational and Persuasive Message Factors in Changing Implicit Attitudes Toward Smoking

PubMed Central

Rydell, Robert J.; Sherman, Steven J.; Boucher, Kathryn L.; Macy, Jonathan T.

2012-01-01

The current work examined the extent to which nicotine level affects the receptiveness of cigarette smokers to a compelling (strong) or a specious (weak) antismoking, public service announcement (PSA). The combination of nicotine loading (i.e., having just smoked a cigarette) and a strong antismoking PSA led to significantly more negative implicit evaluations of cigarettes; however, explicit evaluations were not changed by nicotine level or PSA quality. Smokers’ implicit evaluations of cigarettes were affected only by compelling PSAs when they had recently smoked but not when they were nicotine deprived or when they viewed weak PSAs. Because implicit evaluations of cigarettes predict deliberate smoking-related decisions, it is important to understand which factors can render these implicit evaluations relatively more negative. PMID:23606782

Predicting Barrett's Esophagus in Families: An Esophagus Translational Research Network (BETRNet) Model Fitting Clinical Data to a Familial Paradigm.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangqing; Elston, Robert C; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Falk, Gary W; Grady, William M; Faulx, Ashley; Mittal, Sumeet K; Canto, Marcia; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Wang, Jean S; Iyer, Prasad G; Abrams, Julian A; Tian, Ye D; Willis, Joseph E; Guda, Kishore; Markowitz, Sanford D; Chandar, Apoorva; Warfe, James M; Brock, Wendy; Chak, Amitabh

2016-05-01

Barrett's esophagus is often asymptomatic and only a small portion of Barrett's esophagus patients are currently diagnosed and under surveillance. Therefore, it is important to develop risk prediction models to identify high-risk individuals with Barrett's esophagus. Familial aggregation of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma, and the increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma for individuals with a family history, raise the necessity of including genetic factors in the prediction model. Methods to determine risk prediction models using both risk covariates and ascertained family data are not well developed. We developed a Barrett's Esophagus Translational Research Network (BETRNet) risk prediction model from 787 singly ascertained Barrett's esophagus pedigrees and 92 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees, fitting a multivariate logistic model that incorporates family history and clinical risk factors. The eight risk factors, age, sex, education level, parental status, smoking, heartburn frequency, regurgitation frequency, and use of acid suppressant, were included in the model. The prediction accuracy was evaluated on the training dataset and an independent validation dataset of 643 multiplex Barrett's esophagus pedigrees. Our results indicate family information helps to predict Barrett's esophagus risk, and predicting in families improves both prediction calibration and discrimination accuracy. Our model can predict Barrett's esophagus risk for anyone with family members known to have, or not have, had Barrett's esophagus. It can predict risk for unrelated individuals without knowing any relatives' information. Our prediction model will shed light on effectively identifying high-risk individuals for Barrett's esophagus screening and surveillance, consequently allowing intervention at an early stage, and reducing mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(5); 727-35. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

An approach to value-based simulator selection: The creation and evaluation of the simulator value index tool.

PubMed

Rooney, Deborah M; Hananel, David M; Covington, Benjamin J; Dionise, Patrick L; Nykamp, Michael T; Pederson, Melvin; Sahloul, Jamal M; Vasquez, Rachael; Seagull, F Jacob; Pinsky, Harold M; Sweier, Domenica G; Cooke, James M

2018-04-01

Currently there is no reliable, standardized mechanism to support health care professionals during the evaluation of and procurement processes for simulators. A tool founded on best practices could facilitate simulator purchase processes. In a 3-phase process, we identified top factors considered during the simulator purchase process through expert consensus (n = 127), created the Simulator Value Index (SVI) tool, evaluated targeted validity evidence, and evaluated the practical value of this SVI. A web-based survey was sent to simulation professionals. Participants (n = 79) used the SVI and provided feedback. We evaluated the practical value of 4 tool variations by calculating their sensitivity to predict a preferred simulator. Seventeen top factors were identified and ranked. The top 2 were technical stability/reliability of the simulator and customer service, with no practical differences in rank across institution or stakeholder role. Full SVI variations predicted successfully the preferred simulator with good (87%) sensitivity, whereas the sensitivity of variations in cost and customer service and cost and technical stability decreased (≤54%). The majority (73%) of participants agreed that the SVI was helpful at guiding simulator purchase decisions, and 88% agreed the SVI tool would help facilitate discussion with peers and leadership. Our findings indicate the SVI supports the process of simulator purchase using a standardized framework. Sensitivity of the tool improved when factors extend beyond traditionally targeted factors. We propose the tool will facilitate discussion amongst simulation professionals dealing with simulation, provide essential information for finance and procurement professionals, and improve the long-term value of simulation solutions. Limitations and application of the tool are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Onset of Anxiety Syndromes at 12 Months in Primary Care Attendees. The PredictA-Spain Study

PubMed Central

Moreno-Peral, Patricia; Luna, Juan de Dios; Marston, Louise; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Muñoz-Bravo, Carlos; Bellón, Juan Ángel

2014-01-01

Background There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Methods A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces. Results The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval = 0.78–0.83) and the Hedges' g = 1.17 (95% confidence interval = 1.04–1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit. Conclusions The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care. PMID:25184313

Inter-kingdom prediction certainty evaluation of protein subcellular localization tools: microbial pathogenesis approach for deciphering host microbe interaction.

PubMed

Khan, Abdul Arif; Khan, Zakir; Kalam, Mohd Abul; Khan, Azmat Ali

2018-01-01

Microbial pathogenesis involves several aspects of host-pathogen interactions, including microbial proteins targeting host subcellular compartments and subsequent effects on host physiology. Such studies are supported by experimental data, but recent detection of bacterial proteins localization through computational eukaryotic subcellular protein targeting prediction tools has also come into practice. We evaluated inter-kingdom prediction certainty of these tools. The bacterial proteins experimentally known to target host subcellular compartments were predicted with eukaryotic subcellular targeting prediction tools, and prediction certainty was assessed. The results indicate that these tools alone are not sufficient for inter-kingdom protein targeting prediction. The correct prediction of pathogen's protein subcellular targeting depends on several factors, including presence of localization signal, transmembrane domain and molecular weight, etc., in addition to approach for subcellular targeting prediction. The detection of protein targeting in endomembrane system is comparatively difficult, as the proteins in this location are channelized to different compartments. In addition, the high specificity of training data set also creates low inter-kingdom prediction accuracy. Current data can help to suggest strategy for correct prediction of bacterial protein's subcellular localization in host cell. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Structural and Predictive Properties of the Emotional Quotient Inventory Youth Version-Short Form (EQ-i:YV[S]).

PubMed

Davis, Sarah K; Wigelsworth, Michael

2018-01-01

Emotional intelligence (EI) is a popular construct with concentrated areas of application in education and health contexts. There is a need for reliable and valid measurement of EI in young people, with brief yet sensitive measures of the construct preferable for use in time-limited settings. However, the proliferation of EI measures has often outpaced rigorous psychometric evaluation (Gignac, 2009 ). Using data from 849 adolescents (407 females, 422 males) aged 11 to 16 years (M age 13.4, SD = 1.2 years), this article systematically examines the structural and predictive properties of a frequently employed measure of adolescent trait EI-the Emotional Quotient Inventory Youth Version-Short Form (EQ-i:YV[S]); Bar-On & Parker, 2000 ). Although the intended multidimensional factor structure was recovered through confirmatory factor analysis, the statistical and conceptual coherency of the underlying model was inadequate. Using a multitrait-multimethod approach, the EQ-i:YV(S) was found to converge with other measures of EI; however, evidence for divergent validity (Big Five personality dimensions) was less robust. Predictive utility for adolescent mental health outcomes (depression, disruptive behavior) was also limited. Findings suggest that use of the EQ-i:YV(S) for predictive or evaluative purposes should be avoided until refinements to the scale are made.

A review on the factors affecting mite growth in stored grain commodities.

PubMed

Collins, D A

2012-03-01

A thorough review of the literature has identified the key factors and interactions that affect the growth of mite pests on stored grain commodities. Although many factors influence mite growth, the change and combinations of the physical conditions (temperature, relative humidity and/or moisture content) during the storage period are likely to have the greatest impact, with biological factors (e.g. predators and commodity) playing an important role. There is limited information on the effects of climate change, light, species interactions, local density dependant factors, spread of mycotoxins and action thresholds for mites. A greater understanding of these factors may identify alternative control techniques. The ability to predict mite population dynamics over a range of environmental conditions, both physical and biological, is essential in providing an early warning of mite infestations, advising when appropriate control measures are required and for evaluating control measures. This information may provide a useful aid in predicting and preventing mite population development as part of a risk based decision support system.

[Value of the albumin to globulin ratio in predicting severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients].

PubMed

Yang, D H; Su, Z Q; Chen, Y; Chen, Z B; Ding, Z N; Weng, Y Y; Li, J; Li, X; Tong, Q L; Han, Y X; Zhang, X

2016-03-08

To assess the predictive value of the albumin to globulin ratio (AGR) in evaluation of disease severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients. A total of 135 myasthenia gravis (MG) patients were enrolled between February 2009 and March 2015. The AGR was detected on the first day of hospitalization and ranked from lowest to highest, and the patients were divided into three equal tertiles according to the AGR values, which were T1 (AGR <1.34), T2 (1.34≤AGR≤1.53) and T3 (AGR>1.53). The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to evaluate the prognostic value of AGR. Cox model analysis was used to evaluate the relevant factors. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to find the predictors of myasthenia crisis during hospitalization. The median length of hospital stay for each tertile was: for the T1 21 days (15-35.5), T2 18 days (14-27.5), and T3 16 days (12-22.5) (P<0.01), and Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant difference among the three groups. In the univariate model, serum albumin, creatinine, AGR and MGFA clinical classification were related to prognosis of myasthenia gravis. At the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the AGR (P<0.001) and MGFA clinical classification (P<0.001) were independent predictive factors of disease severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients. Respectively, the hazard ratio (HR) were 4.655 (95% CI: 2.355-9.202) and 0.596 (95% CI: 0.492-0.723). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed the AGR (P<0.001) and MGFA clinical classification were related to myasthenia crisis. The AGR may represent a simple, potentially useful predictive biomarker for evaluating the disease severity and prognosis of patients with myasthenia gravis.

Understanding social anxiety as a risk for alcohol use disorders: Fear of scrutiny, not social interaction fears, prospectively predicts alcohol use disorders

PubMed Central

Buckner, Julia D.; Schmidt, Norman B.

2009-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that social anxiety may be a premorbid risk factor for alcohol use disorders (AUD). The aim of this study was to replicate and extend previous work examining whether social anxiety is a risk factor for AUD by evaluating both the temporal antecedence and non-spuriousness of this relationship. We also examined whether social anxiety first-order factors (social interaction anxiety, observation anxieties) served as specific predictors of AUD. A non-referred sample of 404 psychologically healthy young adults (i.e. free from current or past Axis I psychopathology) was prospectively followed over approximately two years. Social anxiety (but not depression or trait anxiety) at baseline significantly predicted subsequent AUD onset. The relationship between social anxiety and AUD remained even after controlling for relevant variables (gender, depression, trait anxiety). Further, social anxiety first-order factors differentially predicted AUD onset, such that observation anxieties (but not social interaction anxiety) were prospectively linked to AUD onset. This study provides further support that social anxiety (and fear of scrutiny specifically) appears to serve as an important and potentially specific AUD-related variable that deserves serious attention as a potential vulnerability factor. PMID:18547587

The Development of the General Factor of Psychopathology 'p Factor' Through Childhood and Adolescence.

PubMed

Murray, Aja Louise; Eisner, Manuel; Ribeaud, Denis

2016-11-01

Recent studies have suggested that the structure of psychopathology may be usefully represented in terms of a general factor of psychopathology (p-factor) capturing variance common to a broad range of symptoms transcending diagnostic domains in addition to specific factors capturing variance common to smaller subsets of more closely related symptoms. Little is known about how the general co-morbidity captured by this p-factor develops and whether general co-morbidity increases or decreases over childhood and adolescence. We evaluated two competing hypotheses: 1) dynamic mutualism which predicts growth in general co-morbidity and associated p-factor strength over time and 2) p-differentiation which predicts that manifestations of liabilities towards psychopathology become increasingly specific over time. Data came from the Zurich Project on the Social Development of Children and Youths (z-proso), a longitudinal study of a normative sample (approx. 50 % male) measured at 8 time points from ages 7 to 15. We operationalised general co-morbidity as p-factor strength in a bi-factor model and used omega hierarchical to track how this changed over development. In contrast to the predictions of both dynamic mutualism and p-differentiation, p-factor strength remained relatively constant over the studied period suggesting that such processes do not govern the interplay between psychopathological symptoms during this phase of development. Future research should focus on earlier phases of development and on factors that maintain the consistency of symptom-general covariation across this period.

Evaluation of NO2 predictions by the plume volume molar ratio method (PVMRM) and ozone limiting method (OLM) in AERMOD using new field observations.

PubMed

Hendrick, Elizabeth M; Tino, Vincent R; Hanna, Steven R; Egan, Bruce A

2013-07-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plume volume molar ratio method (PVMRM) and the ozone limiting method (OLM) are in the AERMOD model to predict the 1-hr average NO2/NO(x) concentration ratio. These ratios are multiplied by the AERMOD predicted NO(x) concentration to predict the 1-hr average NO2 concentration. This paper first briefly reviews PVMRM and OLM and points out some scientific parameterizations that could be improved (such as specification of relative dispersion coefficients) and then discusses an evaluation of the PVMRM and OLM methods as implemented in AERMOD using a new data set. While AERMOD has undergone many model evaluation studies in its default mode, PVMRM and OLM are nondefault options, and to date only three NO2 field data sets have been used in their evaluations. Here AERMOD/PVMRM and AERMOD/OLM codes are evaluated with a new data set from a northern Alaskan village with a small power plant. Hourly pollutant concentrations (NO, NO2, ozone) as well as meteorological variables were measured at a single monitor 500 m from the plant. Power plant operating parameters and emissions were calculated based on hourly operator logs. Hourly observations covering 1 yr were considered, but the evaluations only used hours when the wind was in a 60 degrees sector including the monitor and when concentrations were above a threshold. PVMRM is found to have little bias in predictions of the C(NO2)/C(NO(x)) ratio, which mostly ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 at this site. OLM overpredicted the ratio. AERMOD overpredicts the maximum NO(x) concentration but has an underprediction bias for lower concentrations. AERMOD/PVMRM overpredicts the maximum C(NO2) by about 50%, while AERMOD/OLM overpredicts by a factor of 2. For 381 hours evaluated, there is a relative mean bias in C(NO2) predictions of near zero for AERMOD/PVMRM, while the relative mean bias reflects a factor of 2 overprediction for AERMOD/OLM. This study was initiated because the new stringent 1-hr NO2 NAAQS has prompted modelers to more widely use the PVMRM and OLM methods for conversion of NO(x) to NO2 in the AERMOD regulatory model. To date these methods have been evaluated with a limited number of data sets. This study identified a new data set of ambient pollutant and meteorological monitoring near an isolated power plant in Wainwright, Alaska. To supplement the existing evaluations, this new data were used to evaluate PVMRM and OLM. This new data set has been and will be made available to other scientists for future investigations.

Cognitive and emotional factors associated with elective breast augmentation among young women.

PubMed

Moser, Stephanie E; Aiken, Leona S

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to propose and evaluate a psychosocial model of young women's intentions to obtain breast implants and the preparatory steps taken towards having breast implant surgery. The model integrated anticipated regret, descriptive norms and image norms from the media into the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Focus groups (n = 58) informed development of measures of outcome expectancies, preparatory steps and normative influence. The model was tested and replicated among two samples of young women who had ever considered getting breast implants (n = 200, n = 152). Intentions and preparatory steps served as outcomes. Model constructs and outcomes were initially assessed; outcomes were re-assessed 11 weeks later. Evaluative attitudes and anticipated regret predicted intentions; in turn, intentions, along with descriptive norms, predicted subsequent preparatory steps. Perceived risk (susceptibility, severity) of negative medical consequences of breast implants predicted anticipated regret, which predicted evaluative attitudes. Intentions and preparatory steps exhibited interplay over time. This research provides the first comprehensive model predicting intentions and preparatory steps towards breast augmentation surgery. It supports the addition of anticipated regret to the TPB and suggests mutual influence between intentions and preparatory steps towards a final behavioural outcome.

A comprehensive prediction and evaluation method of pilot workload

PubMed Central

Feng, Chuanyan; Wanyan, Xiaoru; Yang, Kun; Zhuang, Damin; Wu, Xu

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The prediction and evaluation of pilot workload is a key problem in human factor airworthiness of cockpit. OBJECTIVE: A pilot traffic pattern task was designed in a flight simulation environment in order to carry out the pilot workload prediction and improve the evaluation method. METHODS: The prediction of typical flight subtasks and dynamic workloads (cruise, approach, and landing) were built up based on multiple resource theory, and a favorable validity was achieved by the correlation analysis verification between sensitive physiological data and the predicted value. RESULTS: Statistical analysis indicated that eye movement indices (fixation frequency, mean fixation time, saccade frequency, mean saccade time, and mean pupil diameter), Electrocardiogram indices (mean normal-to-normal interval and the ratio between low frequency and sum of low frequency and high frequency), and Electrodermal Activity indices (mean tonic and mean phasic) were all sensitive to typical workloads of subjects. CONCLUSION: A multinominal logistic regression model based on combination of physiological indices (fixation frequency, mean normal-to-normal interval, the ratio between low frequency and sum of low frequency and high frequency, and mean tonic) was constructed, and the discriminate accuracy was comparatively ideal with a rate of 84.85%. PMID:29710742

A comprehensive prediction and evaluation method of pilot workload.

PubMed

Feng, Chuanyan; Wanyan, Xiaoru; Yang, Kun; Zhuang, Damin; Wu, Xu

2018-01-01

The prediction and evaluation of pilot workload is a key problem in human factor airworthiness of cockpit. A pilot traffic pattern task was designed in a flight simulation environment in order to carry out the pilot workload prediction and improve the evaluation method. The prediction of typical flight subtasks and dynamic workloads (cruise, approach, and landing) were built up based on multiple resource theory, and a favorable validity was achieved by the correlation analysis verification between sensitive physiological data and the predicted value. Statistical analysis indicated that eye movement indices (fixation frequency, mean fixation time, saccade frequency, mean saccade time, and mean pupil diameter), Electrocardiogram indices (mean normal-to-normal interval and the ratio between low frequency and sum of low frequency and high frequency), and Electrodermal Activity indices (mean tonic and mean phasic) were all sensitive to typical workloads of subjects. A multinominal logistic regression model based on combination of physiological indices (fixation frequency, mean normal-to-normal interval, the ratio between low frequency and sum of low frequency and high frequency, and mean tonic) was constructed, and the discriminate accuracy was comparatively ideal with a rate of 84.85%.

Fine motor skills predict performance in the Jebsen Taylor Hand Function Test after stroke.

PubMed

Allgöwer, Kathrin; Hermsdörfer, Joachim

2017-10-01

To determine factors characterizing the differences in fine motor performance between stroke patients and controls. To confirm the relevance of the factors by analyzing their predictive power with regard to the Jebsen Taylor Hand Function Test (JTHFT), a common clinical test of fine motor control. Twenty-two people with slight paresis in an early chronic phase following stroke and twenty-two healthy controls were examined. Performance on the JTHFT, Nine-Hole Peg Test and 2-point discrimination was evaluated. To analyze object manipulation skills, grip forces and temporal measures were examined during (1) lifting actions with variations of weight and surface (2) cyclic movements (3) predictive/reactive catching tasks. Three other aspects of force control included (4) visuomotor tracking (5) fast force changes and (6) grip strength. Based on 9 parameters which significantly distinguished fine motor performance in the two groups, we identified three principal components (factors): grip force scaling, motor coordination and speed of movement. The three factors are shown to predict JTHFT scores via linear regression (R 2 =0.687, p<0.001). We revealed a factor structure behind fine motor impairments following stroke and showed that it explains JTHFT results to a large extend. This result can serve as a basis for improving diagnostics and enabling more targeted therapy. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factor selection for service quality evaluation: a hospital case study.

PubMed

Ameryoun, Ahmad; Najafi, Seyedvahid; Nejati-Zarnaqi, Bayram; Khalilifar, Seyed Omid; Ajam, Mahdi; Ansarimoghadam, Ahmad

2017-02-13

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a systematic approach to predict service quality dimension's influence on service quality using a novel analysis based on data envelopment and SERVQUAL. Design/methodology/approach To assess hospital service quality in Tehran, expectation and perception of those who received the services were evaluated using SERVQUAL. The hospital service quality dimensions were found by exploratory factor analysis (EFA). To compare customer expectation and perception, perceived service quality index (PSQI) was measured using a new method based on common weights. A novel sensitivity approach was used to test the service quality factor's impact on the PSQI. Findings A new service quality dimension named "trust in services" was found using EFA, which is not an original SERVQUAL factor. The approach was applied to assess the hospital's service quality. Since the PSQI value was 0.76 it showed that improvements are needed to meet customer expectations. The results showed the factor order that affect PSQI. "Trust in services" has the strongest influence on PSQI followed by "tangibles," "assurance," "empathy," and "responsiveness," respectively. Practical implications This work gives managers insight into service quality by following a systematic method; i.e., measuring perceived service quality from the customer viewpoint and service factors' impact on customer perception. Originality/value The procedure helps managers to select the required service quality dimensions which need improvement and predict their effects on customer perception.

The cortisol reactivity threshold model: Direction of trait rumination and cortisol reactivity association varies with stressor severity.

PubMed

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Avery, Bradley M; Ditcheva, Maria; Sapuram, Vaibhav R

2018-06-01

Various internalizing risk factors predict, in separate studies, both augmented and reduced cortisol responding to lab-induced stress. Stressor severity appears key: We tested whether heightened trait-like internalizing risk (here, trait rumination) predicts heightened cortisol reactivity under modest objective stress, but conversely predicts reduced reactivity under more robust objective stress. Thus, we hypothesized that trait rumination would interact with a curvilinear (quadratic) function of stress severity to predict cortisol reactivity. Evidence comes from 85 currently non-depressed emerging adults who completed either a non-stressful control protocol (n = 29), an intermediate difficulty Trier Social Stress Test (TSST; n = 26), or a robustly stressful negative evaluative TSST (n = 30). Latent growth curve models evaluated relationships between trait rumination and linear and quadratic effects of stressor severity on the change in cortisol and negative affect over time. Among other findings, a significant Trait Rumination x Quadratic Stress Severity interaction effect for cortisol's Quadratic Trend of Time (i.e., reactivity, B = .125, p = .017) supported the hypothesis. Rumination predicted greater cortisol reactivity to intermediate stress (r p  = .400, p = .043), but blunted reactivity to more robust negative evaluative stress (r p  = -0.379, p = 0.039). Contrasting hypotheses, negative affective reactivity increased independently of rumination as stressor severity increased (B = .453, p = 0.044). The direction of the relationship between an internalizing risk factor (trait rumination) and cortisol reactivity varies as a function of stressor severity. We propose the Cortisol Reactivity Threshold Model, which may help reconcile several divergent reactivity literatures and has implications for internalizing psychopathology, particularly depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients.

PubMed

Šabanagić-Hajrić, Selma; Alajbegović, Azra

2015-02-01

To evaluate the impacts of education level and employment status on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multiple sclerosis patients. This study included 100 multiple sclerosis patients treated at the Department of Neurology, Clinical Center of the University of Sarajevo. Inclusion criteria were the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score between 1.0 and 6.5, age between 18 and 65 years, stable disease on enrollment. Quality of life (QoL) was evaluated by the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire (MSQoL-54). Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for comparisons. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate prediction value of educational level and employment status in predicting MSQOL-54 physical and mental composite scores. Full employment status had positive impact on physical health (54.85 vs. 37.90; p les than 0.001) and mental health (59.55 vs. 45.90; p les than 0.001) composite scores. Employment status retained its independent predictability for both physical (r(2)=0.105) and mental (r(2)=0.076) composite scores in linear regression analysis. Patients with college degree had slightly higher median value of physical (49.36 vs. 45.30) and mental health composite score (66.74 vs. 55.62) comparing to others, without statistically significant difference. Employment proved to be an important factor in predicting quality of life in multiple sclerosis patients. Higher education level may determine better QOL but without significant predictive value. Sustained employment and development of vocational rehabilitation programs for MS patients living in the country with high unemployment level is an important factor in improving both physical and mental health outcomes in MS patients.

Detection of Cardiovascular Disease Risk's Level for Adults Using Naive Bayes Classifier.

PubMed

Miranda, Eka; Irwansyah, Edy; Amelga, Alowisius Y; Maribondang, Marco M; Salim, Mulyadi

2016-07-01

The number of deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and stroke is predicted to reach 23.3 million in 2030. As a contribution to support prevention of this phenomenon, this paper proposes a mining model using a naïve Bayes classifier that could detect cardiovascular disease and identify its risk level for adults. The process of designing the method began by identifying the knowledge related to the cardiovascular disease profile and the level of cardiovascular disease risk factors for adults based on the medical record, and designing a mining technique model using a naïve Bayes classifier. Evaluation of this research employed two methods: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity calculation as well as an evaluation session with cardiologists and internists. The characteristics of cardiovascular disease are identified by its primary risk factors. Those factors are diabetes mellitus, the level of lipids in the blood, coronary artery function, and kidney function. Class labels were assigned according to the values of these factors: risk level 1, risk level 2 and risk level 3. The evaluation of the classifier performance (accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) in this research showed that the proposed model predicted the class label of tuples correctly (above 80%). More than eighty percent of respondents (including cardiologists and internists) who participated in the evaluation session agree till strongly agreed that this research followed medical procedures and that the result can support medical analysis related to cardiovascular disease. The research showed that the proposed model achieves good performance for risk level detection of cardiovascular disease.

Control and prediction of the course of brewery fermentations by gravimetric analysis.

PubMed

Kosín, P; Savel, J; Broz, A; Sigler, K

2008-01-01

A simple, fast and cheap test suitable for predicting the course of brewery fermentations based on mass analysis is described and its efficiency is evaluated. Compared to commonly used yeast vitality tests, this analysis takes into account wort composition and other factors that influence fermentation performance. It can be used to predict the shape of the fermentation curve in brewery fermentations and in research and development projects concerning yeast vitality, fermentation conditions and wort composition. It can also be a useful tool for homebrewers to control their fermentations.

Testing the prospective evaluation of a new healthcare system

PubMed Central

Planitz, Birgit; Sanderson, Penelope; Freeman, Clinton; Xiao, Tania; Botea, Adi; Orihuela, Cristina Beltran

2012-01-01

Research into health ICT adoption suggests that the failure to understand the clinical workplace has been a major contributing factor to the failure of many computer-based clinical systems. We suggest that clinicians and administrators need methods for envisioning future use when adopting new ICT. This paper presents and evaluates a six-stage “prospective evaluation” model that clinicians can use when assessing the impact of a new electronic patient information system on a Specialist Outpatients Department (SOPD). The prospective evaluation model encompasses normative, descriptive, formative and projective approaches. We show that this combination helped health informaticians to make reasonably accurate predictions for technology adoption at the SOPD. We suggest some refinements, however, to improve the scope and accuracy of predictions. PMID:23304347

Continuously Variable Rating: a new, simple and logical procedure to evaluate original scientific publications

PubMed Central

Silva, Mauricio Rocha e

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Impact Factors (IF) are widely used surrogates to evaluate single articles, in spite of known shortcomings imposed by cite distribution skewness. We quantify this asymmetry and propose a simple computer-based procedure for evaluating individual articles. METHOD: (a) Analysis of symmetry. Journals clustered around nine Impact Factor points were selected from the medical “Subject Categories” in Journal Citation Reports 2010. Citable items published in 2008 were retrieved and ranked by granted citations over the Jan/2008 - Jun/2011 period. Frequency distribution of cites, normalized cumulative cites and absolute cites/decile were determined for each journal cluster. (b) Positive Predictive Value. Three arbitrarily established evaluation classes were generated: LOW (1.3≤IF<2.6); MID: (2.6≤IF<3.9); HIGH: (IF≥3.9). Positive Predictive Value for journal clusters within each class range was estimated. (c) Continuously Variable Rating. An alternative evaluation procedure is proposed to allow the rating of individually published articles in comparison to all articles published in the same journal within the same year of publication. The general guiding lines for the construction of a totally dedicated software program are delineated. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Skewness followed the Pareto Distribution for (1

Study of B c  → J/ψV and {B}_{c}^{* } \\rightarrow {\\eta }_{c}V decays within the QCD factorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Qin; Chen, Li-Li; Xu, Shuai

2018-07-01

In this paper, we study the non-leptonic B c → J/ψV and {B}c* \\to {η }cV (V=ρ ,{K}* ) weak decays in the framework of QCD factorization. In the evaluation, the form factors are calculated using the Bauer–Stech–Wirbel model and the light-front quark model, respectively. Besides the longitudinal amplitude, the power-suppressed transverse contributions are also evaluated at next-to-leading order. The predictions for the observables of B c → J/ψV and {B}c* \\to {η }cV decays are presented. We find that the NLO QCD contribution presents about 8% correction to the branching ratios, and the longitudinal polarization fractions of these decays are at the level of (80 ∼ 90)%. In addition, we suggest direct measurements on some useful ratios, {R}{K* /ρ }(λ =0) and {\\widetilde{R}}{K* /ρ }(λ =0), which are very suitable to test the consistence between theoretical prediction and data because their theoretical uncertainties can be well controlled.

The factor structure of complex posttraumatic stress disorder in traumatized refugees.

PubMed

Nickerson, Angela; Cloitre, Marylene; Bryant, Richard A; Schnyder, Ulrich; Morina, Naser; Schick, Matthis

2016-01-01

The construct of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (CPTSD) has attracted much research attention in previous years, however it has not been systematically evaluated in individuals exposed to persecution and displacement. Given that CPTSD has been proposed as a diagnostic category in the ICD-11, it is important that it be examined in refugee groups. In the current study, we proposed to test, for the first time, the factor structure of CPTSD proposed for the ICD-11 in a sample of resettled treatment-seeking refugees. The study sample consisted of 134 traumatized refugees from a variety of countries of origin, with approximately 93% of the sample having been exposed to torture. We used confirmatory factor analysis to examine the factor structure of CPTSD in this sample and examined the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power and negative predictive power of individual items in relation to the CPTSD diagnosis. Findings revealed that a two-factor higher-order model of CPTSD comprising PTSD and Difficulties in Self-Organization (χ 2 (47)=57.322, p =0.144, RMSEA=0.041, CFI=0.981, TLI=0.974) evidenced superior fit compared to a one-factor higher-order model of CPTSD (χ 2 (48)=65.745, p =0.045, RMSEA=0.053, CFI=0.968, TLI=0.956). Overall, items evidenced strong sensitivity and negative predictive power, moderate positive predictive power, and poor specificity. Findings provide preliminary evidence for the validity of the CPTSD construct with highly traumatized treatment-seeking refugees.

Comparative evaluation of power factor impovement techniques for squirrel cage induction motors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spee, R.; Wallace, A.K.

1992-04-01

This paper describes the results obtained from a series of tests of relatively simple methods of improving the power factor of squirrel-cage induction motors. The methods, which are evaluated under controlled laboratory conditions for a 10-hp, high-efficiency motor, include terminal voltage reduction; terminal static capacitors; and a floating'' winding with static capacitors. The test results are compared with equivalent circuit model predictions that are then used to identify optimum conditions for each of the power factor improvement techniques compared with the basic induction motor. Finally, the relative economic value, and the implications of component failures, of the three methods aremore » discussed.« less

PREDICTING WALKING ABILITY FOLLOWING LOWER LIMB AMPUTATION: AN UPDATED SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

PubMed Central

Kahle, Jason T.; Highsmith, M. Jason; Schaepper, Hans; Johannesson, Anton; Orendurff, Michael S.; Kaufman, Kenton

2016-01-01

There is not a clear clinical recommendation for the determination of prosthetic candidacy. Guidelines do not delineate which member(s) of the multidisciplinary team are responsible for prosthetic candidacy decisions and which factors will best predict a positive outcome. Also not clearly addressed is a patient-centered decision-making role. In a previous systematic review (SR), Sansam et al. reported on the prediction of walking ability following lower limb amputation using literature up to 2007. The search strategy was designed from the previous Sansam SR as an update of previously valuable predictive factors of prosthetic candidacy. An electronic literature search was executed from August 8, 2007, to December 31, 2015, using MEDLINE (Pubmed), Embase, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (Ovid), and Cochrane. A total of 319 studies were identified through the electronic search. Of these, 298 were eliminated, leaving a total of 21 for full evaluation. Conclusions from this updated study are drawn from a total recruited sample (n) of 15,207 subjects. A total of 12,410 subjects completed the respective studies (18% attrition). This updated study increases the size of the original Sansam et al. report by including 137% more subjects for a total of 21,490 between the two articles Etiology, physical fitness, pre-amputation living status, amputation level, age, physical fitness, and comorbidities are included as moderate to strongly supported predictive factors of prosthetic candidacy. These factors are supported in an earlier literature review and should be strongly considered in a complete history and physical examination by a multidisciplinary team. Predictive factors should be part of the patient’s healthcare record. PMID:28066522

A method of site quality evaluation for red alder.

Treesearch

Constance A. Harrington

1986-01-01

A field guide to predict site index for red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) was developed for use in western Washington and Oregon. The guide requires the user to evaluate 14 soil-site properties that are grouped into three general factors: (1) geographic and topographic position, (2) soil moisture and aeration during the growing season, and (3) soil fertility and physical...

Imaging characteristics of photogrammetric camera systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welch, R.; Halliday, J.

1973-01-01

In view of the current interest in high-altitude and space photographic systems for photogrammetric mapping, the United States Geological Survey (U.S.G.S.) undertook a comprehensive research project designed to explore the practical aspects of applying the latest image quality evaluation techniques to the analysis of such systems. The project had two direct objectives: (1) to evaluate the imaging characteristics of current U.S.G.S. photogrammetric camera systems; and (2) to develop methodologies for predicting the imaging capabilities of photogrammetric camera systems, comparing conventional systems with new or different types of systems, and analyzing the image quality of photographs. Image quality was judged in terms of a number of evaluation factors including response functions, resolving power, and the detectability and measurability of small detail. The limiting capabilities of the U.S.G.S. 6-inch and 12-inch focal length camera systems were established by analyzing laboratory and aerial photographs in terms of these evaluation factors. In the process, the contributing effects of relevant parameters such as lens aberrations, lens aperture, shutter function, image motion, film type, and target contrast procedures for analyzing image quality and predicting and comparing performance capabilities. ?? 1973.

Are prostatic calculi independent predictive factors of lower urinary tract symptoms?

PubMed Central

Park, Sung-Woo; Nam, Jong-Kil; Lee, Sang-Don; Chung, Moon-Kee

2010-01-01

We determined the correlation between prostatic calculi and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), as well as the predisposing factors of prostatic calculi. Of the 1 527 patients who presented at our clinic for LUTS, 802 underwent complete evaluations, including transrectal ultrasonography, voided bladder-3 specimen and international prostatic symptoms score (IPSS). A total of 335 patients with prostatic calculi and 467 patients without prostatic calculi were divided into calculi and no calculi groups, respectively. Predictive factors of severe LUTS and prostatic calculi were determined using uni/multivariate analysis. The overall IPSS score was 15.7 ± 9.2 and 14.1 ± 9.2 in the calculi and no calculi group, respectively (P = 0.013). The maximum flow rate was 12.1 ± 6.9 and 14.2 ± 8.2 mL s−1 in the calculi and no calculi group, respectively (P = 0.003). On univariate analysis for predicting factors of severe LUTS, differences on age (P = 0.042), prostatic calculi (P = 0.048) and prostatitis (P = 0.018) were statistically significant. However, on multivariate analysis, no factor was significant. On multivariate analysis for predisposing factors of prostatic calculi, differences on age (P < 0.001) and prostate volume (P = 0.001) were significant. To our knowledge, patients who have prostatic calculi complain of more severe LUTS. However, prostatic calculi are not an independent predictive factor of severe LUTS. Therefore, men with prostatic calculi have more severe LUTS not only because of prostatic calculi but also because of age and other factors. In addition, old age and large prostate volume are independent predisposing factors for prostatic calculi. PMID:19966831

Who succeeds at dental school? Factors predicting students' academic performance in a dental school in republic of Korea.

PubMed

Ihm, Jung-Joon; Lee, Gene; Kim, Kack-Kyun; Jang, Ki-Taeg; Jin, Bo-Hyoung

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine what cognitive and non-cognitive factors were responsible for predicting the academic performance of dental students in a dental school in the Republic of Korea. This school is one of those in Korea that now require applicants to have a bachelor's degree. In terms of cognitive factors, students' undergraduate grade point average (GPA) and Dental Education Eligibility Test (DEET) scores were used, while surveys were conducted to evaluate four non-cognitive measures: locus of control, self-esteem, self-directed learning, and interpersonal skills. A total of 353 students matriculating at Seoul National University School of Dentistry in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 consented to the collection of records and completed the surveys. The main finding was that applicants who scored higher on internal locus of control and self-efficacy were more likely to be academically successful dental students. Self-directed learning was significantly associated with students ranked in the top 50 percent in cumulative GPA. However, students' interpersonal skills were negatively related to their academic performance. In particular, students' lack of achievement could be predicted by monitoring their first-year GPA. Therefore, the identification of those factors to predict dental school performance has implications for the dental curriculum and effective pedagogy in dental education.

Combining PubMed knowledge and EHR data to develop a weighted bayesian network for pancreatic cancer prediction.

PubMed

Zhao, Di; Weng, Chunhua

2011-10-01

In this paper, we propose a novel method that combines PubMed knowledge and Electronic Health Records to develop a weighted Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) model for pancreatic cancer prediction. We selected 20 common risk factors associated with pancreatic cancer and used PubMed knowledge to weigh the risk factors. A keyword-based algorithm was developed to extract and classify PubMed abstracts into three categories that represented positive, negative, or neutral associations between each risk factor and pancreatic cancer. Then we designed a weighted BNI model by adding the normalized weights into a conventional BNI model. We used this model to extract the EHR values for patients with or without pancreatic cancer, which then enabled us to calculate the prior probabilities for the 20 risk factors in the BNI. The software iDiagnosis was designed to use this weighted BNI model for predicting pancreatic cancer. In an evaluation using a case-control dataset, the weighted BNI model significantly outperformed the conventional BNI and two other classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine). We conclude that the weighted BNI using PubMed knowledge and EHR data shows remarkable accuracy improvement over existing representative methods for pancreatic cancer prediction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining PubMed Knowledge and EHR Data to Develop a Weighted Bayesian Network for Pancreatic Cancer Prediction

PubMed Central

Zhao, Di; Weng, Chunhua

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel method that combines PubMed knowledge and Electronic Health Records to develop a weighted Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) model for pancreatic cancer prediction. We selected 20 common risk factors associated with pancreatic cancer and used PubMed knowledge to weigh the risk factors. A keyword-based algorithm was developed to extract and classify PubMed abstracts into three categories that represented positive, negative, or neutral associations between each risk factor and pancreatic cancer. Then we designed a weighted BNI model by adding the normalized weights into a conventional BNI model. We used this model to extract the EHR values for patients with or without pancreatic cancer, which then enabled us to calculate the prior probabilities for the 20 risk factors in the BNI. The software iDiagnosis was designed to use this weighted BNI model for predicting pancreatic cancer. In an evaluation using a case-control dataset, the weighted BNI model significantly outperformed the conventional BNI and two other classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine). We conclude that the weighted BNI using PubMed knowledge and EHR data shows remarkable accuracy improvement over existing representative methods for pancreatic cancer prediction. PMID:21642013

Development of brief versions of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for schizophrenia: considerations of the structure and predictability of intelligence.

PubMed

Sumiyoshi, Chika; Uetsuki, Miki; Suga, Motomu; Kasai, Kiyoto; Sumiyoshi, Tomiki

2013-12-30

Short forms (SF) of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale have been developed to enhance its practicality. However, only a few studies have addressed the Wechsler Intelligence Scale Revised (WAIS-R) SFs based on data from patients with schizophrenia. The current study was conducted to develop the WAIS-R SFs for these patients based on the intelligence structure and predictability of the Full IQ (FIQ). Relations to demographic and clinical variables were also examined on selecting plausible subtests. The WAIS-R was administered to 90 Japanese patients with schizophrenia. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and multiple regression analysis were conducted to find potential subtests. EFA extracted two dominant factors corresponding to Verbal IQ and Performance IQ measures. Subtests with higher factor loadings on those factors were initially nominated. Regression analysis was carried out to reach the model containing all the nominated subtests. The optimality of the potential subtests included in that model was evaluated from the perspectives of the representativeness of intelligence structure, FIQ predictability, and the relation with demographic and clinical variables. Taken together, the dyad of Vocabulary and Block Design was considered to be the most optimal WAIS-R SF for patients with schizophrenia, reflecting both intelligence structure and FIQ predictability. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining and evaluating perceptions of victim blame in antigay hate crimes.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Nobles, Matt R; Amacker, Amanda M; Dovoedo, Lisa

2013-09-01

Victimology research often hinges on attribution of blame toward victims despite a lack of conceptual agreement on the definition and measure of the construct. Drawing on established blame attribution and intent literature, the present study evaluates psychometric properties of the Perceptions of Victim Blame Scale (PVBS) using mock jury samples in a vignette-based capital murder antigay hate crime context. Factor analyses show support for a three-factor structure with the following perceptions of victim blame subscales: Malice, Recklessness, and Unreliability. All factors displayed expected positive associations with homonegativity and authoritarianism. Likewise, all factors displayed null relations with trait aggression and social desirability. Only the Malice factor predicted sentencing decisions after controlling for crime condition and support for the death penalty. Results are reviewed with respect to blame attribution theory and practical application of a revised PVBS.

Predicting Forearm Physical Exposures During Computer Work Using Self-Reports, Software-Recorded Computer Usage Patterns, and Anthropometric and Workstation Measurements.

PubMed

Huysmans, Maaike A; Eijckelhof, Belinda H W; Garza, Jennifer L Bruno; Coenen, Pieter; Blatter, Birgitte M; Johnson, Peter W; van Dieën, Jaap H; van der Beek, Allard J; Dennerlein, Jack T

2017-12-15

Alternative techniques to assess physical exposures, such as prediction models, could facilitate more efficient epidemiological assessments in future large cohort studies examining physical exposures in relation to work-related musculoskeletal symptoms. The aim of this study was to evaluate two types of models that predict arm-wrist-hand physical exposures (i.e. muscle activity, wrist postures and kinematics, and keyboard and mouse forces) during computer use, which only differed with respect to the candidate predicting variables; (i) a full set of predicting variables, including self-reported factors, software-recorded computer usage patterns, and worksite measurements of anthropometrics and workstation set-up (full models); and (ii) a practical set of predicting variables, only including the self-reported factors and software-recorded computer usage patterns, that are relatively easy to assess (practical models). Prediction models were build using data from a field study among 117 office workers who were symptom-free at the time of measurement. Arm-wrist-hand physical exposures were measured for approximately two hours while workers performed their own computer work. Each worker's anthropometry and workstation set-up were measured by an experimenter, computer usage patterns were recorded using software and self-reported factors (including individual factors, job characteristics, computer work behaviours, psychosocial factors, workstation set-up characteristics, and leisure-time activities) were collected by an online questionnaire. We determined the predictive quality of the models in terms of R2 and root mean squared (RMS) values and exposure classification agreement to low-, medium-, and high-exposure categories (in the practical model only). The full models had R2 values that ranged from 0.16 to 0.80, whereas for the practical models values ranged from 0.05 to 0.43. Interquartile ranges were not that different for the two models, indicating that only for some physical exposures the full models performed better. Relative RMS errors ranged between 5% and 19% for the full models, and between 10% and 19% for the practical model. When the predicted physical exposures were classified into low, medium, and high, classification agreement ranged from 26% to 71%. The full prediction models, based on self-reported factors, software-recorded computer usage patterns, and additional measurements of anthropometrics and workstation set-up, show a better predictive quality as compared to the practical models based on self-reported factors and recorded computer usage patterns only. However, predictive quality varied largely across different arm-wrist-hand exposure parameters. Future exploration of the relation between predicted physical exposure and symptoms is therefore only recommended for physical exposures that can be reasonably well predicted. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures.

PubMed

Tobias, J H; Hutchinson, A P; Hunt, L P; McCloskey, E V; Stone, M D; Martin, J C; Thompson, P W; Palferman, T G; Bhalla, A K

2007-01-01

Previous studies have been unable to identify risk factors for prevalent vertebral fractures (VF), which are suitable for use in selection strategies intended to target high-risk sub-groups for diagnostic assessment. However, these studies generally consisted of large epidemiology surveys based on questionnaires and were only able to evaluate a limited number of risk factors. Here, we investigated whether a stronger relationship exists with prevalent VF when conventional risk factors are combined with additional information obtained from detailed one-to-one assessment. Women aged 65-75 registered at four geographically distinct GP practices were invited to participate (n=1,518), of whom 540 attended for assessment as follows: a questionnaire asking about risk factors for osteoporosis such as height loss compared to age 25 and history of non-vertebral fracture (NVF), the get-up-and-go test, Margolis back pain score, measurement of wall-tragus and rib-pelvis distances, and BMD as measured by the distal forearm BMD. A lateral thoraco-lumbar spine X-ray was obtained, which was subsequently scored for the presence of significant vertebral deformities. Of the 509 subjects who underwent spinal radiographs, 37 (7.3%) were found to have one or more VF. Following logistic regression analysis, the four most predictive clinical risk factors for prevalent VF were: height loss (P=0.006), past NVF (P=0.004), history of back pain (P=0.075) and age (P=0.05). BMD was also significantly associated with prevalent VF (P=0.002), but its inclusion did not affect associations with other variables. Factors elicited from detailed one-to-one assessment were not related to the risk of one or more prevalent VFs. The area under ROC curves derived from these regressions, which suggested that models for prevalent VF had modest predictive accuracy, were as follows: 0.68 (BMD), 0.74 (four clinical risk factors above) and 0.78 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Analyses were repeated in relation to the subgroup of 13 patients with two or more VFs, which revealed that in this instance, the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance were associated with the presence of multiple VFs (P=0.022 and 0.026, respectively). Moreover, the predictive value as reflected by the ROC curve area was improved: 0.80 (BMD), 0.88 (the four most predictive clinical risk factors consisting of the height loss, past NVF, Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance) and 0.91 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Evaluation of additional risk factors from detailed one-to-one assessment does not improve the predictive value of risk factors for one or more prevalent vertebral deformities in postmenopausal women. However, the use of factors such as the Margolis back pain score and rib-pelvis distance may be helpful in identifying postmenopausal women at high risk of multiple prevalent VFs.

Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling.

PubMed

Fang, Wei; Li, Jiu-Ke; Jin, Xiao-Hong; Dai, Yuan-Min; Li, Yu-Min

2016-01-01

To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment (RRD) after sclera buckling (SB). Totally 48 patients (51 eyes) with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), posterior vitreous detachment (PVD), baseline best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student's t-test, Wilcoxon two-sample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 logMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761±0.4956 logMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% (47/51). Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration (r=0.3850, P=0.0053), less detached area (r=0.5489, P<0.0001), fovea (r=0.4605, P=0.0007), no PVR (r=0.3138, P=0.0250), better baseline BCVA (r=0.7291, P<0.0001), shorter operative duration (r=0.3233, P=0.0207) and longer follow up (r=-0.3358, P=0.0160) were related with better final BCVA, while independent predictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square (PR(2))=0.5316, P<0.0001], shorter symptoms duration (PR(2)=0.0609, P=0.0101), longer follow up duration (PR(2)=0.0278, P=0.0477) and shorter operative duration (PR(2)=0.0338, P=0.0350). Patients with vision improvement took up 49.02% (25/51). Univariate and multivariate analyses both revealed predictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio (OR) =50.369, P=0.0041] and longer follow up duration (OR=1.144, P=0.0067). Independent predictive factors for better visual outcome of primary chronic RRD after SB are better baseline BCVA, shorter symptoms duration, shorter operative duration and longer follow up duration, while independent predictive factors for better vision improvement after operation are better baseline vision and longer follow up duration.

Selective Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) screening of a high risk population does not adequately detect MRSA carriers within a country with low MRSA prevalence.

PubMed

de Wouters, Solange; Daxhelet, Jérémy; Kaminski, Ludovic; Thienpont, Emmanuel; Cornu, Olivier; Yombi, Jean Cyr

2015-12-01

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) has been widely recognized as a serious problem in hospital settings. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive value of MRSA colonization factors in the detection of MRSA carriers in an orthopedic ward. A systematic MRSA detection strategy was set up to assess the predictive value of MRSA colonization factors among 554 patients undergoing elective knee arthroplasty. In total 116 patients were found positive for Staphylococcus Aureus; among those 110/116 patients were found positive for Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus Aureus (MSSA) and 6/116 for MRSA. Only one patient out of six presented two risk factors according to MRSA risk factors. In this study, no correlation was found between the remaining conventional risk factors, according to Belgian guidelines, defined to target high-risk populations and to identify MRSA carriers. Established criteria for selective MRSA screening do not allow detecting MRSA carriers. The objective of detecting MRSA carriers is not correctly met by the actual applied criteria (Belgian consensus) for a selective screening policy. Future studies should aim at identifying the right risk factors, depending of the country's prevalence of MRSA, to improve the ability to predict the risk of MRSA carriage at hospital admission.

Factors predicting survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients on non-invasive ventilation.

PubMed

Gonzalez Calzada, Nuria; Prats Soro, Enric; Mateu Gomez, Lluis; Giro Bulta, Esther; Cordoba Izquierdo, Ana; Povedano Panades, Monica; Dorca Sargatal, Jordi; Farrero Muñoz, Eva

2016-01-01

Non invasive ventilation (NIV) improves quality of life and extends survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. However, few data exist about the factors related to survival. We intended to assess the predictive factors that influence survival in patients after NIV initiation. Patients who started NIV from 2000 to 2014 and were tolerant (compliance ≥ 4 hours) were included; demographic, disease related and respiratory variables at NIV initiation were analysed. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier test and Cox proportional hazard models. 213 patients were included with median survival from NIV initiation of 13.5 months. In univariate analysis, the identified risk factors for mortality were severity of bulbar involvement (HR 2), Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) % (HR 0.99) and ALSFRS-R (HR 0.97). Multivariate analysis showed that bulbar involvement (HR 1.92) and ALSFRS-R (HR 0.97) were independent predictive factors of survival in patients on NIV. In our study, the two prognostic factors in ALS patients following NIV were the severity of bulbar involvement and ALSFRS-R at the time on NIV initiation. A better assessment of bulbar involvement, including evaluation of the upper airway, and a careful titration on NIV are necessary to optimize treatment efficacy.

Placenta growth factor not vascular endothelial growth factor A or C can predict the early recurrence after radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Ho, Ming-Chih; Chen, Chiung-Nien; Lee, Hsinyu; Hsieh, Fon-Jou; Shun, Chia-Tung; Chang, Chi-Lun; Lai, Yeun-Tyng; Lee, Po-Huang

2007-06-08

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the expression of PlGF in tumor tissue and clinical outcomes in HCC patients. Tumor PlGF and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A and VEGF-C mRNA were analyzed. Results demonstrated that patients with PlGF expression levels higher than median tended to have early recurrence compared to patients with PlGF expression lower than median (P=.031). In patients with AJCC stage II-III disease, this difference was even more significant (P=.002). In contrast, VEGF-A and VEGF-C could not predict early recurrence-free survival. Since PlGF expression correlated with early recurrence of HCC, PlGF may be an important prognostic indicator in HCC.

An ontology for factors affecting tuberculosis treatment adherence behavior in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ogundele, Olukunle Ayodeji; Moodley, Deshendran; Pillay, Anban W; Seebregts, Christopher J

2016-01-01

Adherence behavior is a complex phenomenon influenced by diverse personal, cultural, and socioeconomic factors that may vary between communities in different regions. Understanding the factors that influence adherence behavior is essential in predicting which individuals and communities are at risk of nonadherence. This is necessary for supporting resource allocation and intervention planning in disease control programs. Currently, there is no known concrete and unambiguous computational representation of factors that influence tuberculosis (TB) treatment adherence behavior that is useful for prediction. This study developed a computer-based conceptual model for capturing and structuring knowledge about the factors that influence TB treatment adherence behavior in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). An extensive review of existing categorization systems in the literature was used to develop a conceptual model that captured scientific knowledge about TB adherence behavior in SSA. The model was formalized as an ontology using the web ontology language. The ontology was then evaluated for its comprehensiveness and applicability in building predictive models. The outcome of the study is a novel ontology-based approach for curating and structuring scientific knowledge of adherence behavior in patients with TB in SSA. The ontology takes an evidence-based approach by explicitly linking factors to published clinical studies. Factors are structured around five dimensions: factor type, type of effect, regional variation, cross-dependencies between factors, and treatment phase. The ontology is flexible and extendable and provides new insights into the nature of and interrelationship between factors that influence TB adherence.

An ontology for factors affecting tuberculosis treatment adherence behavior in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Ogundele, Olukunle Ayodeji; Moodley, Deshendran; Pillay, Anban W; Seebregts, Christopher J

2016-01-01

Purpose Adherence behavior is a complex phenomenon influenced by diverse personal, cultural, and socioeconomic factors that may vary between communities in different regions. Understanding the factors that influence adherence behavior is essential in predicting which individuals and communities are at risk of nonadherence. This is necessary for supporting resource allocation and intervention planning in disease control programs. Currently, there is no known concrete and unambiguous computational representation of factors that influence tuberculosis (TB) treatment adherence behavior that is useful for prediction. This study developed a computer-based conceptual model for capturing and structuring knowledge about the factors that influence TB treatment adherence behavior in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Methods An extensive review of existing categorization systems in the literature was used to develop a conceptual model that captured scientific knowledge about TB adherence behavior in SSA. The model was formalized as an ontology using the web ontology language. The ontology was then evaluated for its comprehensiveness and applicability in building predictive models. Conclusion The outcome of the study is a novel ontology-based approach for curating and structuring scientific knowledge of adherence behavior in patients with TB in SSA. The ontology takes an evidence-based approach by explicitly linking factors to published clinical studies. Factors are structured around five dimensions: factor type, type of effect, regional variation, cross-dependencies between factors, and treatment phase. The ontology is flexible and extendable and provides new insights into the nature of and interrelationship between factors that influence TB adherence. PMID:27175067

Affective temperaments play an important role in the relationship between child abuse and the diagnosis of bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Toda, Hiroyuki; Inoue, Takeshi; Tanichi, Masaaki; Saito, Taku; Nakagawa, Shin; Masuya, Jiro; Tanabe, Hajime; Yoshino, Aihide; Kusumi, Ichiro

2018-04-01

In previous studies, various components such as environmental and genetic factors have been shown to contribute to the development of bipolar disorder (BD). This study investigated how multiple factors, including child abuse, adult life events, and affective temperaments, are interrelated and how they affect the diagnosis of BD. A total of 170 healthy controls and 75 BD patients completed the following self-administered questionnaires: the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 evaluating the severity of depressive symptoms; the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale (CATS) evaluating child abuse; the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego autoquestionnaire (TEMPS-A) evaluating affective temperaments; and the Life Experiences Survey (LES) evaluating negative and positive adult life events. The data were subjected to univariate analysis, multivariable analysis, and structural equation modeling. The structural equation modeling showed that the diagnosis of BD was indirectly predicted by the neglect and sexual abuse scores of the CATS through four affective temperaments (depressive, cyclothymic, irritable, and anxious) of the TEMPS-A and directly predicted by these four affective temperaments. This study suggested that affective temperament plays an important role as a mediator in the influence of child abuse on BD diagnosis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and modeling of the eutectic composition of various drug-polyethylene glycol solid dispersions.

PubMed

Baird, Jared A; Taylor, Lynne S

2011-06-01

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of which factors contribute to the eutectic composition of drug-polyethylene glycol (PEG) blends and to compare experimental values with predictions from the semi-empirical model developed by Lacoulonche et al. Eutectic compositions of various drug-PEG 3350 solid dispersions were predicted, assuming athermal mixing, and compared to experimentally determined eutectic points. The presence or absence of specific interactions between the drug and PEG 3350 were investigated using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. The eutectic composition for haloperidol-PEG and loratadine-PEG solid dispersions was accurately predicted using the model, while predictions for aceclofenac-PEG and chlorpropamide-PEG were very different from those experimentally observed. Deviations in the model prediction from ideal behavior for the systems evaluated were confirmed to be due to the presence of specific interactions between the drug and polymer, as demonstrated by IR spectroscopy. Detailed analysis showed that the eutectic composition prediction from the model is interdependent on the crystal lattice energy of the drug compound (evaluated from the melting temperature and the heat of fusion) as well as the nature of the drug-polymer interactions. In conclusion, for compounds with melting points less than 200°C, the model is ideally suited for predicting the eutectic composition of systems where there is an absence of drug-polymer interactions.

Geographic Profiling to Assess the Risk of Rare Plant Poaching in Natural Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, John A.; van Manen, Frank T.; Thatcher, Cindy A.

2011-09-01

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.

The importance of personality and parental styles on optimism in adolescents.

PubMed

Zanon, Cristian; Bastianello, Micheline Roat; Pacico, Juliana Cerentini; Hutz, Claudio Simon

2014-01-01

Some studies have suggested that personality factors are important to optimism development. Others have emphasized that family relations are relevant variables to optimism. This study aimed to evaluate the importance of parenting styles to optimism controlling for the variance accounted for by personality factors. Participants were 344 Brazilian high school students (44% male) with mean age of 16.2 years (SD = 1) who answered personality, optimism, responsiveness and demandingness scales. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted having personality factors (in the first step) and maternal and paternal parenting styles, and demandingness and responsiveness (in the second step) as predictive variables and optimism as the criterion. Personality factors, especially neuroticism (β = -.34, p < .01), extraversion (β = .26, p < .01) and agreeableness (β = .16, p < .01), accounted for 34% of the optimism variance and insignificant variance was predicted exclusively by parental styles (1%). These findings suggest that personality is more important to optimism development than parental styles.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design.

PubMed

Ai, A L; Ladd, K L; Peterson, C; Cook, C A; Shearer, M; Koenig, H G

2010-12-01

despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. MPLICATIONS: the influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion-health relations.

Validation and cost-effectiveness of a home-based screening system for amblyopia.

PubMed

Lan, Weizhong; Zhao, Feng; Li, Zhen; Zeng, Junwen; Liu, Wenyan; Lu, Jinhua; Zheng, Dehui; Lin, Lixia; Ge, Jian; Yang, Zhikuan

2012-06-01

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of a novel home-based screening system for amblyopia and amblyogenic risk factors. Evaluation of diagnostic test or technology. Two thousand four hundred forty-two preschoolers 3 to 6 years of age from 10 kindergartens randomly selected from Guangzhou participated in the study in 2009. Preschoolers were assessed for amblyopia and amblyogenic risk factors by their parents using the home-based screening system and were re-evaluated by professionals who conducted a comprehensive eye examination. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the cost-benefit of the home-based screening system were calculated by comparing the results from the home-assessed model and those from the professional evaluation. Three thousand three hundred children were invited to participate in the study, and 2308 (1216 boys and 1092 girls) completed all of the procedures. Twenty-four amblyopes were found by professional examinations. Fifteen of these amblyopes had not been diagnosed previously, and 12 of them were detected by the home-assessment model. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 80.0%, 94.1%, 8.2%, and 99.9%, respectively. Professional examinations cost an average of US $1131.00 per case of amblyopia detected, whereas the cost was only US $266.00 per case for the home-based method. For amblyogenic factors, 50, 87, and 96 children were classified into grade I, II, or III according to the professional examinations. The corresponding numbers in the home-based system were 23, 29, and 15, respectively. Accordingly, the true positive rates were 46.0%, 33.3%, and 15.6% for each grade. The home-based amblyopia screening system was found to be a simple, effective, and cost-beneficial method for amblyopia screening and amblyogenic risk factors. The approach offers a practical option for developing areas with large populations. The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic dry eye in photorefractive keratectomy and laser in situ keratomileusis: Manifestations, incidence, and predictive factors.

PubMed

Bower, Kraig S; Sia, Rose K; Ryan, Denise S; Mines, Michael J; Dartt, Darlene A

2015-12-01

To evaluate dry-eye manifestations after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and determine the incidence and predictive factors of chronic dry eye using a set of dry-eye criteria. Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA. Prospective, non-randomized clinical study. Dry-eye evaluation was performed before and after surgery. Main outcome measures included dry-eye manifestations, incidence, and predictive factors of chronic dry eye. This study comprised 143 active-duty U.S. Army personnel, ages 29.9 ± 5.2 years, with myopia or myopic astigmatism (manifest spherical equivalent -3.83 ± 1.96 diopters) having PRK or LASIK. Schirmer scores, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, surface regularity index, and responses to dry-eye questionnaire significantly changed over time after PRK. After LASIK, significant changes were observed in tear breakup time, corneal sensitivity, ocular surface staining, and responses to questionnaire. Twelve months postoperatively, 5.0% of PRK and 0.8% of LASIK participants developed chronic dry eye. Regression analysis showed that pre-operatively lower Schirmer score will significantly influence development of chronic dry eye after PRK, whereas preoperatively, lower Schirmer score or higher ocular surface staining score will significantly influence the occurrence of chronic dry eye after LASIK. Chronic dry eye was uncommon after PRK and LASIK. Ocular surface and tear-film characteristics during pre-operative examination might help to predict chronic dry-eye development in PRK and LASIK. The authors have no financial interest in any product, drug, instrument, or equipment discussed in this manuscript. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. All rights reserved.

[Morphological index for prediction of cervix uteri cancer].

PubMed

Gatenadze, Ts Z; Ungiadze, D Iu; Chakhoian, O P; Nakashidze, M G; Sulaberidze, I M

2010-01-01

The aim of the research is evaluation of morphological parameters which would allow predicting cervix uteri cancer. The case histories of 505 patients (from 20 to 70 years old) with I-III clinical stages of primary cervical uteri cancer (PUC), which got surgical and combined treatment in oncological center in Batumi from 1970-2005 were evaluated. The factors that influence on the prognosis of PUC are revealed: cancer cell emboli in vessels of tumour stroma, sharpness of the tumour edges, the tumor tissue types, and the depth of invasion. The imaging characteristics of the tumours are described. Planocellular cancer has more favourable prognosis in comparison with glandular cancer.

Predictors of Extradyadic Sexual Involvement in Unmarried Opposite-Sex Relationships

PubMed Central

Maddox Shaw, Amanda M.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Allen, Elizabeth S.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

2012-01-01

Using a sample of unmarried individuals in opposite-sex romantic relationships that was representative of the United States (N = 933), the current study prospectively evaluated predictors of extradyadic sexual involvement (ESI) over 20-months. Data were collected with self-report questionnaires via U.S. mail. Participants were 18–35 years old and were 34.9% male. Variables tested as predictors included involved-partner factors such as demographic characteristics, sexual history, and mental health, as well as relationship-related factors including communication, sexual dynamics, and aspects of commitment. Future ESI was significantly predicted by lower baseline relationship satisfaction, negative communication, aggression, lower dedication, absence of plans to marry, suspicion of partner’s ESI, and partner’s ESI. It was not predicted by sexual frequency, sexual dissatisfaction, or cohabitation status. Although more problems with alcohol use, more previous sex partners, and having parents who never married one another predicted future ESI, there were many involved-partner demographic factors that did not predict later ESI (e.g., gender, age, education, religiosity, having divorced parents, and having children). None of the results were moderated by gender. These results suggest that compared to demographic characteristics, relationship dynamics and negative interactions are more strongly predictive of future ESI. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:22524318

Preexisting depressive symptoms are associated with long-term cognitive decline in patients after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Patron, Elisabetta; Messerotti Benvenuti, Simone; Zanatta, Paolo; Polesel, Elvio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

To examine whether preoperative psychological dysfunctions rather than intraoperative factors may differentially predict short- and long-term postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) in patients after cardiac surgery. Forty-two patients completed a psychological evaluation, including the Trail Making Test Part A and B (TMT-A/B), the memory with 10/30-s interference, the phonemic verbal fluency and the Center for Epidemiological Studies of Depression (CES-D) scale for cognitive functions and depressive symptoms, respectively, before surgery, at discharge and at 18-month follow-up. Ten (24%) and 11 (26%) patients showed POCD at discharge and at 18-month follow-up, respectively. The duration of cardiopulmonary bypass significantly predicted short-term POCD [odds ratio (OR)=1.04, P<.05], whereas preoperative psychological factors were unrelated to cognitive decline at discharge. Conversely, long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery was significantly predicted by preoperative scores in the CES-D (OR=1.26, P<.03) but not by intraoperative variables (all Ps >.23). Our findings showed that preexisting depressive symptoms rather than perioperative risk factors are associated with cognitive decline 18 months after cardiac surgery. This study suggests that a preoperative psychological evaluation of depressive symptoms is essential to anticipate which patients are likely to show long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevated Responding to Safe Conditions as a Specific Risk Factor for Anxiety Versus Depressive Disorders: Evidence From a Longitudinal Investigation

PubMed Central

Craske, Michelle G.; Wolitzky–Taylor, Kate B.; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard; Waters, Allison M.; Vrshek–Schallhorn, Suzanne; Epstein, Alyssa; Naliboff, Bruce; Ornitz, Edward

2013-01-01

The current study evaluated the degree to which startle reflexes (SRs) in safe conditions versus danger conditions were predictive of the onset of anxiety disorders. Specificity of these effects to anxiety disorders was evaluated in comparison to unipolar depressive disorders and with consideration of level of neuroticism. A startle paradigm was administered at baseline to 132 nondisordered adolescents as part of a longitudinal study examining risk factors for emotional disorders. Participants underwent a repetition of eight safe-danger sequences and were told that delivery of an aversive stimulus leading to a muscle contraction of the arm would occur only in the late part of danger conditions. One aversive stimulus occurred midway in the safe-danger sequences. Participants were assessed for the onset of anxiety and unipolar depressive disorders annually over the next 3 to 4 years. Larger SR magnitude during safe conditions following delivery of the aversive stimulus predicted the subsequent first onset of anxiety disorders. Moreover, prediction of the onset of anxiety disorders remained significant above and beyond the effects of comorbid unipolar depression, neuroticism, and subjective ratings of intensity of the aversive stimulus. In sum, elevated responding to safe conditions following an aversive stimulus appears to be a specific, prospective risk factor for the first onset of anxiety disorders. PMID:21988452

Staphylococcal Enterotoxin P Predicts Bacteremia in Hospitalized Patients Colonized With Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

PubMed Central

Calderwood, Michael S.; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Sakoulas, George; Nicol, Robert; DuBois, Andrea; Delaney, Mary L.; Kleinman, Ken; Cosimi, Lisa A.; Feldgarden, Michael; Onderdonk, Andrew B.; Birren, Bruce W.; Platt, Richard; Huang, Susan S.

2014-01-01

Background. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization predicts later infection, with both host and pathogen determinants of invasive disease. Methods. This nested case-control study evaluates predictors of MRSA bacteremia in an 8–intensive care unit (ICU) prospective adult cohort from 1 September 2003 through 30 April 2005 with active MRSA surveillance and collection of ICU, post-ICU, and readmission MRSA isolates. We selected MRSA carriers who did (cases) and those who did not (controls) develop MRSA bacteremia. Generating assembled genome sequences, we evaluated 30 MRSA genes potentially associated with virulence and invasion. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed the association of these genes with MRSA bacteremia, controlling for host risk factors. Results. We collected 1578 MRSA isolates from 520 patients. We analyzed host and pathogen factors for 33 cases and 121 controls. Predictors of MRSA bacteremia included a diagnosis of cancer, presence of a central venous catheter, hyperglycemia (glucose level, >200 mg/dL), and infection with a MRSA strain carrying the gene for staphylococcal enterotoxin P (sep). Receipt of an anti-MRSA medication had a significant protective effect. Conclusions. In an analysis controlling for host factors, colonization with MRSA carrying sep increased the risk of MRSA bacteremia. Identification of risk-adjusted genetic determinants of virulence may help to improve prediction of invasive disease and suggest new targets for therapeutic intervention. PMID:24041793

Genomic selection of agronomic traits in hybrid rice using an NCII population.

PubMed

Xu, Yang; Wang, Xin; Ding, Xiaowen; Zheng, Xingfei; Yang, Zefeng; Xu, Chenwu; Hu, Zhongli

2018-05-10

Hybrid breeding is an effective tool to improve yield in rice, while parental selection remains the key and difficult issue. Genomic selection (GS) provides opportunities to predict the performance of hybrids before phenotypes are measured. However, the application of GS is influenced by several genetic and statistical factors. Here, we used a rice North Carolina II (NC II) population constructed by crossing 115 rice varieties with five male sterile lines as a model to evaluate effects of statistical methods, heritability, marker density and training population size on prediction for hybrid performance. From the comparison of six GS methods, we found that predictabilities for different methods are significantly different, with genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) being the best, support vector machine (SVM) and partial least square (PLS) being the worst. The marker density has lower influence on predicting rice hybrid performance compared with the size of training population. Additionally, we used the 575 (115 × 5) hybrid rice as a training population to predict eight agronomic traits of all hybrids derived from 120 (115 + 5) rice varieties each mating with 3023 rice accessions from the 3000 rice genomes project (3 K RGP). Of the 362,760 potential hybrids, selection of the top 100 predicted hybrids would lead to 35.5%, 23.25%, 30.21%, 42.87%, 61.80%, 75.83%, 19.24% and 36.12% increase in grain yield per plant, thousand-grain weight, panicle number per plant, plant height, secondary branch number, grain number per panicle, panicle length and primary branch number, respectively. This study evaluated the factors affecting predictabilities for hybrid prediction and demonstrated the implementation of GS to predict hybrid performance of rice. Our results suggest that GS could enable the rapid selection of superior hybrids, thus increasing the efficiency of rice hybrid breeding.

Do the same factors predict outcome in schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia syndromes after first-episode psychosis? A two-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Peña, Javier; Segarra, Rafael; Ojeda, Natalia; García, Jon; Eguiluz, José I; Gutiérrez, Miguel

2012-06-01

The aim of this two-year longitudinal study was to identify the best baseline predictors of functional outcome in first-episode psychosis (FEP). We tested whether the same factors predict functional outcomes in two different subsamples of FEP patients: schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia syndrome groups. Ninety-five patients with FEP underwent a full clinical evaluation (i.e., PANSS, Mania, Depression and Insight). Functional outcome measurements included the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (DAS-WHO), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and Clinical Global Impression (CGI). Estimation of cognition was obtained by a neuropsychological battery which included attention, processing speed, language, memory and executive functioning. Greater severity of visuospatial functioning at baseline predicted poorer functional outcome as measured by the three functional scales (GAF, CGI and DAS-WHO) in the pooled FEP sample (explaining ut to the 12%, 9% and 10% of the variance, respectively). Negative symptoms also effectively contributed to predict GAF scores (8%). However, we obtained different predictive values after differentiating sample diagnoses. Processing speed significantly predicted most functional outcome measures in patients with schizophrenia, whereas visuospatial functioning was the only significant predictor of functional outcomes in the non-schizophrenia subgroup. Our results suggest that processing speed, visuospatial functioning and negative symptoms significantly (but differentially) predict outcomes in patients with FEP, depending on their clinical progression. For patients without a schizophrenia diagnosis, visuospatial functioning was the best predictor of functional outcome. The performance on processing speed seemed to be a key factor in more severe syndromes. However, only a small proportion of the variance could be explained by the model, so there must be many other factors that have to be considered. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

2009-01-01

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Utilization of the NSQIP-Pediatric Database in Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model of Pediatric Postoperative Wound Complications.

PubMed

Maizlin, Ilan I; Redden, David T; Beierle, Elizabeth A; Chen, Mike K; Russell, Robert T

2017-04-01

Surgical wound classification, introduced in 1964, stratifies the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) based on a clinical estimate of the inoculum of bacteria encountered during the procedure. Recent literature has questioned the accuracy of predicting SSI risk based on wound classification. We hypothesized that a more specific model founded on specific patient and perioperative factors would more accurately predict the risk of SSI. Using all observations from the 2012 to 2014 pediatric National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (NSQIP-P) Participant Use File, patients were randomized into model creation and model validation datasets. Potential perioperative predictive factors were assessed with univariate analysis for each of 4 outcomes: wound dehiscence, superficial wound infection, deep wound infection, and organ space infection. A multiple logistic regression model with a step-wise backwards elimination was performed. A receiver operating characteristic curve with c-statistic was generated to assess the model discrimination for each outcome. A total of 183,233 patients were included. All perioperative NSQIP factors were evaluated for clinical pertinence. Of the original 43 perioperative predictive factors selected, 6 to 9 predictors for each outcome were significantly associated with postoperative SSI. The predictive accuracy level of our model compared favorably with the traditional wound classification in each outcome of interest. The proposed model from NSQIP-P demonstrated a significantly improved predictive ability for postoperative SSIs than the current wound classification system. This model will allow providers to more effectively counsel families and patients of these risks, and more accurately reflect true risks for individual surgical patients to hospitals and payers. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impaction and Prediction: Does Ureteral Wall Thickness Affect the Success of Medical Expulsive Therapy in Pediatric Ureteral Stones?

PubMed

Tuerxun, Aierken; Batuer, Abudukahaer; Erturhan, Sakip; Eryildirim, Bilal; Camur, Emre; Sarica, Kemal

2017-01-01

The study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ureteral wall thickness (UWT) and stone-related parameters for medical expulsive therapy (MET) success with an alpha blocker in pediatric upper ureteral stones. A total of 35 children receiving MET ureteral stones (<10 mm) were evaluated. Patients were divided into 2 subgroups where MET was successful in 18 children (51.4%) and unsuccessful in 17 children (48.6%). Prior to management, stone size, stone density (in Hounsfield unit), degree of hydronephrosis, and UWT were evaluated with patient demographics and recorded. The possible predictive value of these parameters in success rates and time to stone expulsion were evaluated in a comparative manner between the 2 groups. The overall mean patient age and stone size values were 5.40 ± 0.51 years and 6.24 ± 0.28 mm, respectively. Regarding the predictive values of these parameters for the success of MET, while stone size and UWT were found to be highly predictive for MET success, patients age, body mass index, stone density, and degree of hydronephrosis had no predictive value on this aspect. Our findings indicated that some stone and anatomical factors may be used to predict the success of MET in pediatric ureteral stones in an effective manner. With this approach, unnecessary use of these drugs that may cause a delay in removing the stone will be avoided, and the possible adverse effects of obstruction as well as stone-related clinical symptoms could be minimized. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Assessing Susceptibility to Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Genetic Markers and Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuhong; Zeng, Jiexi; Zhao, Chao; Wang, Kevin; Trood, Elizabeth; Buehler, Jeanette; Weed, Matthew; Kasuga, Daniel; Bernstein, Paul S.; Hughes, Guy; Fu, Victoria; Chin, Jessica; Lee, Clara; Crocker, Maureen; Bedell, Matthew; Salasar, Francesca; Yang, Zhenglin; Goldbaum, Michael; Ferreyra, Henry; Freeman, William R.; Kozak, Igor; Zhang, Kang

2014-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the independent and joint effects of genetic factors and environmental variables on advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including geographic atrophy and choroidal neovascularization, and to develop a predictive model with genetic and environmental factors included. Methods Demographic information, including age at onset, smoking status, and body mass index, was collected for 1844 participants. Genotypes were evaluated for 8 variants in 5 genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed to generate a risk predictive model. Results All genetic variants showed a strong association with AMD. Multivariate odds ratios were 3.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-5.94) for complement factor H, CFH rs1061170 CC, 4.21 (2.30-7.70) for CFH rs2274700 CC, 0.46 (0.27-0.80) for C2 rs9332739 CC/CG, 0.44 (0.30-0.66) for CFB rs641153 TT/CT, 10.99 (6.04-19.97) for HTRA1/LOC387715 rs10490924 TT, and 2.66 (1.43-4.96) for C3 rs2230199 GG. Smoking was independently associated with advanced AMD after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, and all genetic variants. Conclusion CFH confers more risk to the bilaterality of geographic atrophy, whereas HTRA1/LOC387715 contributes more to the bilaterality of choroidal neovascularization. C3 confers more risk for geographic atrophy than choroidal neovascularization. Risk models with combined genetic and environmental factors have notable discrimination power. Clinical Relevance Early detection and risk prediction of AMD could help to improve the prognosis of AMD and to reduce the outcome of blindness. Targeting high-risk individuals for surveillance and clinical interventions may help reduce disease burden. PMID:21402993

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Personalized long-term prediction of cognitive function: Using sequential assessments to improve model performance.

PubMed

Chi, Chih-Lin; Zeng, Wenjun; Oh, Wonsuk; Borson, Soo; Lenskaia, Tatiana; Shen, Xinpeng; Tonellato, Peter J

2017-12-01

Prediction of onset and progression of cognitive decline and dementia is important both for understanding the underlying disease processes and for planning health care for populations at risk. Predictors identified in research studies are typically accessed at one point in time. In this manuscript, we argue that an accurate model for predicting cognitive status over relatively long periods requires inclusion of time-varying components that are sequentially assessed at multiple time points (e.g., in multiple follow-up visits). We developed a pilot model to test the feasibility of using either estimated or observed risk factors to predict cognitive status. We developed two models, the first using a sequential estimation of risk factors originally obtained from 8 years prior, then improved by optimization. This model can predict how cognition will change over relatively long time periods. The second model uses observed rather than estimated time-varying risk factors and, as expected, results in better prediction. This model can predict when newly observed data are acquired in a follow-up visit. Performances of both models that are evaluated in10-fold cross-validation and various patient subgroups show supporting evidence for these pilot models. Each model consists of multiple base prediction units (BPUs), which were trained using the same set of data. The difference in usage and function between the two models is the source of input data: either estimated or observed data. In the next step of model refinement, we plan to integrate the two types of data together to flexibly predict dementia status and changes over time, when some time-varying predictors are measured only once and others are measured repeatedly. Computationally, both data provide upper and lower bounds for predictive performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive risk factors for chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Ozturk, Erhan Arif; Kocer, Bilge Gonenli

2018-01-01

Although previous studies have reported that the prevalence of low back pain in Parkinson's disease was over 50% and low back pain was often classified as chronic, risk factors of chronic low back pain have not been previously investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive risk factors of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease. One hundred and sixty-eight patients with Parkinson's disease and 179 controls were consecutively included in the study. Demographic data of the two groups and disease characteristics of Parkinson's disease patient group were recorded. Low back pain lasting for ≥3 months was evaluated as chronic. Firstly, the bivariate correlations were calculated between chronic low back pain and all possible risk factors. Then, a multivariate regression was used to evaluate the impact of the predictors of chronic low back pain. The frequency of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease patients and controls were 48.2% and 26.7%, respectively (p < 0.001). The predictive risk factors of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease were general factors including age (odds ratio = 1.053, p = 0.032) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale - Depression subscore (odds ratio = 1.218, p = 0.001), and Parkinson's disease-related factors including rigidity (odds ratio = 5.109, p = 0.002) and posture item scores (odds ratio = 5.019, p = 0.0001). The chronic low back pain affects approximately half of the patients with Parkinson's disease. Prevention of depression or treatment recommendations for managing depression, close monitoring of anti- parkinsonian medication to keep motor symptoms under control, and attempts to prevent, correct or reduce abnormal posture may help reduce the frequency of chronic low back pain in Parkinson's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outcomes of resective surgery in children and adolescents with focal lesional epilepsy: The experience of a tertiary epilepsy center.

PubMed

Hirfanoglu, Tugba; Serdaroglu, Ayse; Kurt, Gokhan; Erdem, Atilla; Capraz, Irem; Bilir, Erhan; Vural, Ozge; Ucar, Murat; Oner, Ali Yusuf; Onal, Baran; Akdemir, Ozgur; Atay, Ozlem; Arhan, Ebru; Aydin, Kursad

2016-10-01

This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of resective surgery in children with focal lesional epilepsy by evaluating the predictive value of pre- and postsurgical factors in terms of seizure freedom. This study included 61 children aged between 2 and 18years who were admitted to the pediatric video-EEG unit for presurgical workup. Each patient was evaluated with a detailed history, video-EEG, neuroimaging, and postsurgical outcomes according to Engel classification to predict postsurgical seizure freedom. All the possible factors including history, etiology, presurgical evaluation, surgical procedures, and postsurgical results were analyzed for their predictive value for postoperative seizure freedom. Of the 61 patients, 75% were diagnosed as having temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), and 25% were diagnosed with extra-TLE. Two years after the surgery, 78.6% were seizure-free, of which 89% had TLE, and 50% had extra-TLE (p<0.05). Patients were more likely to have a favorable outcome for seizure freedom if they had rare seizure frequency, focal EEG findings, and focal seizures; had a temporal epileptogenic zone; or had TLE and hippocampal sclerosis. On the other hand, patients were more likely to have unfavorable results for seizure freedom if they had younger age of seizure onset, frequent seizures before the surgery, a frontal or multilobar epileptogenic zone, secondarily generalized seizures, extra-TLE with frontal lobe surgery, or focal cortical dysplasia. Resective surgery is one of the most effective treatment methods in children with intractable epilepsy. A history of young age of seizure onset, frequent seizures before surgery, secondarily generalized seizures, a multilobar epileptogenic zone, frontal lobe surgery, and focal cortical dysplasia (FCD) are the most important predictive factors indicating that a patient would continue having seizures after surgery. On the other hand, focal seizure semiologies, temporal lobe localization, and hippocampal sclerosis indicate that a patient would have better results in terms of seizure freedom. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specific Factors Influence Postconcussion Symptom Duration among Youth Referred to a Sports Concussion Clinic.

PubMed

Heyer, Geoffrey L; Schaffer, Caroline E; Rose, Sean C; Young, Julie A; McNally, Kelly A; Fischer, Anastasia N

2016-07-01

To identify the clinical factors that influence the duration of postconcussion symptoms among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate several potential predictors of symptom duration via a Cox proportional hazards analyses. The individual postconcussion symptom scores were highly correlated, so these symptoms were analyzed in the statistical model as coefficients derived from principal component analyses. Among 1953 youth with concussion, 1755 (89.9%) had dates of reported symptom resolution. The remainder (10.1%) were lost to follow-up and censored. The median time to recovery was 18 days (range 1-353 days). By 30 days, 72.6% had recovered; by 60 days, 91.4% had recovered; and by 90 days, 96.8% had recovered. Several variables in a multivariate Cox model predicted postconcussion symptom duration: female sex (P < .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28), continued activity participation (P = .02, HR = 1.13), loss of consciousness (P = .03, HR = 1.18), anterograde amnesia (P = .04, HR = 1.15), premorbid headaches (P = .03, HR = 1.15), symptom components from the day of concussion (emotion, P = .03, HR = 1.08), and the day of clinic evaluation (cognitive-fatigue, P < .001, HR = 1.22; cephalalgic, P < .001, HR = 1.27; emotional, P = .05, HR = 1.08; arousal-stimulation, P = .003, HR = 1.1). In univariate analyses, greater symptom scores generally predicted longer symptom durations. Worsening of symptoms from the day of concussion to the day of clinic evaluation also predicted longer recovery (P < .001, HR = 1.59). Several factors help to predict protracted postconcussion symptom durations among youth referred to a sports concussion clinic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient feature based dosimetric Pareto front prediction in esophageal cancer radiotherapy.

PubMed

Wang, Jiazhou; Jin, Xiance; Zhao, Kuaike; Peng, Jiayuan; Xie, Jiang; Chen, Junchao; Zhang, Zhen; Studenski, Matthew; Hu, Weigang

2015-02-01

To investigate the feasibility of the dosimetric Pareto front (PF) prediction based on patient's anatomic and dosimetric parameters for esophageal cancer patients. Eighty esophagus patients in the authors' institution were enrolled in this study. A total of 2928 intensity-modulated radiotherapy plans were obtained and used to generate PF for each patient. On average, each patient had 36.6 plans. The anatomic and dosimetric features were extracted from these plans. The mean lung dose (MLD), mean heart dose (MHD), spinal cord max dose, and PTV homogeneity index were recorded for each plan. Principal component analysis was used to extract overlap volume histogram (OVH) features between PTV and other organs at risk. The full dataset was separated into two parts; a training dataset and a validation dataset. The prediction outcomes were the MHD and MLD. The spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between the anatomical features and dosimetric features. The stepwise multiple regression method was used to fit the PF. The cross validation method was used to evaluate the model. With 1000 repetitions, the mean prediction error of the MHD was 469 cGy. The most correlated factor was the first principal components of the OVH between heart and PTV and the overlap between heart and PTV in Z-axis. The mean prediction error of the MLD was 284 cGy. The most correlated factors were the first principal components of the OVH between heart and PTV and the overlap between lung and PTV in Z-axis. It is feasible to use patients' anatomic and dosimetric features to generate a predicted Pareto front. Additional samples and further studies are required improve the prediction model.

TU-C-17A-10: Patient Features Based Dosimetric Pareto Front Prediction In Esophagus Cancer Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, J; Zhao, K; Peng, J

2014-06-15

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to study the feasibility of the dosimetric pareto front (PF) prediction based on patient anatomic and dosimetric parameters for esophagus cancer patients. Methods: Sixty esophagus patients in our institution were enrolled in this study. A total 2920 IMRT plans were created to generated PF for each patient. On average, each patient had 48 plans. The anatomic and dosimetric features were extracted from those plans. The mean lung dose (MLD), mean heart dose (MHD), spinal cord max dose and PTV homogeneous index (PTVHI) were recorded for each plan. The principal component analysis (PCA) wasmore » used to extract overlap volume histogram (OVH) features between PTV and other critical organs. The full dataset was separated into two parts include the training dataset and the validation dataset. The prediction outcomes were the MHD and MLD for the current study. The spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between the anatomical features and dosimetric features. The PF was fit by the the stepwise multiple regression method. The cross-validation method was used to evaluation the model. Results: The mean prediction error of the MHD was 465 cGy with 100 repetitions. The most correlated factors were the first principal components of the OVH between heart and PTV, and the overlap between heart and PTV in Z-axis. The mean prediction error of the MLD was 195 cGy. The most correlated factors were the first principal components of the OVH between lung and PTV, and the overlap between lung and PTV in Z-axis. Conclusion: It is feasible to use patients anatomic and dosimetric features to generate a predicted PF. Additional samples and further studies were required to get a better prediction model.« less

Patient feature based dosimetric Pareto front prediction in esophageal cancer radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiazhou; Zhao, Kuaike; Peng, Jiayuan

2015-02-15

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of the dosimetric Pareto front (PF) prediction based on patient’s anatomic and dosimetric parameters for esophageal cancer patients. Methods: Eighty esophagus patients in the authors’ institution were enrolled in this study. A total of 2928 intensity-modulated radiotherapy plans were obtained and used to generate PF for each patient. On average, each patient had 36.6 plans. The anatomic and dosimetric features were extracted from these plans. The mean lung dose (MLD), mean heart dose (MHD), spinal cord max dose, and PTV homogeneity index were recorded for each plan. Principal component analysis was used to extract overlapmore » volume histogram (OVH) features between PTV and other organs at risk. The full dataset was separated into two parts; a training dataset and a validation dataset. The prediction outcomes were the MHD and MLD. The spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between the anatomical features and dosimetric features. The stepwise multiple regression method was used to fit the PF. The cross validation method was used to evaluate the model. Results: With 1000 repetitions, the mean prediction error of the MHD was 469 cGy. The most correlated factor was the first principal components of the OVH between heart and PTV and the overlap between heart and PTV in Z-axis. The mean prediction error of the MLD was 284 cGy. The most correlated factors were the first principal components of the OVH between heart and PTV and the overlap between lung and PTV in Z-axis. Conclusions: It is feasible to use patients’ anatomic and dosimetric features to generate a predicted Pareto front. Additional samples and further studies are required improve the prediction model.« less

CORE_TF: a user-friendly interface to identify evolutionary conserved transcription factor binding sites in sets of co-regulated genes

PubMed Central

Hestand, Matthew S; van Galen, Michiel; Villerius, Michel P; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; den Dunnen, Johan T; 't Hoen, Peter AC

2008-01-01

Background The identification of transcription factor binding sites is difficult since they are only a small number of nucleotides in size, resulting in large numbers of false positives and false negatives in current approaches. Computational methods to reduce false positives are to look for over-representation of transcription factor binding sites in a set of similarly regulated promoters or to look for conservation in orthologous promoter alignments. Results We have developed a novel tool, "CORE_TF" (Conserved and Over-REpresented Transcription Factor binding sites) that identifies common transcription factor binding sites in promoters of co-regulated genes. To improve upon existing binding site predictions, the tool searches for position weight matrices from the TRANSFACR database that are over-represented in an experimental set compared to a random set of promoters and identifies cross-species conservation of the predicted transcription factor binding sites. The algorithm has been evaluated with expression and chromatin-immunoprecipitation on microarray data. We also implement and demonstrate the importance of matching the random set of promoters to the experimental promoters by GC content, which is a unique feature of our tool. Conclusion The program CORE_TF is accessible in a user friendly web interface at . It provides a table of over-represented transcription factor binding sites in the users input genes' promoters and a graphical view of evolutionary conserved transcription factor binding sites. In our test data sets it successfully predicts target transcription factors and their binding sites. PMID:19036135

Empirical evaluation of spatial and non-spatial European-scale multimedia fate models: results and implications for chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Hauck, Mara; Harbers, Jasper V; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2007-06-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are commonly-applied tools for assessing the fate and distribution of contaminants in the environment. Owing to the large number of chemicals in use and the paucity of monitoring data, such models are often adopted as part of decision-support systems for chemical risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of three multimedia environmental fate models (spatially- and non-spatially-explicit) at a European scale. The assessment was conducted for four polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and compared predicted and median observed concentrations using monitoring data collected for air, water, sediments and soils. Model performance in the air compartment was reasonable for all models included in the evaluation exercise as predicted concentrations were typically within a factor of 3 of the median observed concentrations. Furthermore, there was good correspondence between predictions and observations in regions that had elevated median observed concentrations for both spatially-explicit models. On the other hand, all three models consistently underestimated median observed concentrations in sediment and soil by 1-3 orders of magnitude. Although regions with elevated median observed concentrations in these environmental media were broadly identified by the spatially-explicit models, the magnitude of the discrepancy between predicted and median observed concentrations is of concern in the context of chemical risk assessment. These results were discussed in terms of factors influencing model performance such as the steady-state assumption, inaccuracies in emission estimates and the representativeness of monitoring data.

Signal intensity of the pancreas on magnetic resonance imaging: Prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula after a distal pancreatectomy using a triple-row stapler.

PubMed

Arai, Takuma; Kobayashi, Akira; Yokoyama, Takahide; Ohya, Ayumi; Fujinaga, Yasunari; Shimizu, Akira; Motoyama, Hiroaki; Furusawa, Norihiko; Sakai, Hiroshi; Uehara, Takeshi; Kadoya, Masumi; Miyagawa, Shin-Ichi

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the pancreatic signal intensity (SI) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings for predicting the development of pancreatic fistula (PF) after a distal pancreatectomy (DP) involving a triple-row stapler closure. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for clinical PF, as defined by the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula grade B or C. The pancreas-to-muscle SI ratio was evaluated using fat-suppressed T1-weighted MRI. Of the 41 enrolled patients, 8 (19.5%) developed clinical PF. The pancreatic thickness (≥15 mm) and SI ratio (≥1.3) were identified as independent predictors of clinical PF in a multivariate analysis. Clinical PF was observed in one patient with a thick pancreas and a low SI ratio (14.3%), whereas it was observed in 60% of the patients with a thick pancreas and a high SI ratio. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a predictive model consisting of the two factors was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 0.99), the level of which tended to be greater than that for pancreatic thickness alone (0.81, p = 0.09). The SI ratio as evaluated using MRI might be useful for predicting clinical PF in patients with the pancreatic thickness ≥15 mm after DP involving a stapler closure. Copyright © 2015 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Profiles of neurological outcome prediction among intensivists.

PubMed

Racine, Eric; Dion, Marie-Josée; Wijman, Christine A C; Illes, Judy; Lansberg, Maarten G

2009-12-01

Advances in intensive care medicine have increased survival rates of patients with critical neurological conditions. The focus of prognostication for such patients is therefore shifting from predicting chances of survival to meaningful neurological recovery. This study assessed the variability in long-term outcome predictions among physicians and aimed to identify factors that may account for this variability. Based on a clinical vignette describing a comatose patient suffering from post-anoxic brain injury intensivists were asked in a semi-structured interview about the patient's specific neurological prognosis and about prognostication in general. Qualitative research methods were used to identify areas of variability in prognostication and to classify physicians according to specific prognostication profiles. Quantitative statistics were used to assess for associations between prognostication profiles and physicians' demographic and practice characteristics. Eighteen intensivists participated. Functional outcome predictions varied along an evaluative dimension (fair/good-poor) and a confidence dimension (certain-uncertain). More experienced physicians tended to be more pessimistic about the patient's functional outcome and more certain of their prognosis. Attitudes toward quality of life varied along an evaluative dimension (good-poor) and a "style" dimension (objective-subjective). Older and more experienced physicians were more likely to express objective judgments of quality of life and to predict a worse quality of life for the patient than their younger and less experienced counterparts. Various prognostication profiles exist among intensivists. These may be dictated by factors such as physicians' age and clinical experience. Awareness of these associations may be a first step to more uniform prognostication.

Evaluating the Validity of the Client Evaluation of Motivational Interviewing Scale in a Brief Motivational Intervention for College Student Drinkers.

PubMed

Madson, Michael B; Villarosa, Margo C; Schumacher, Julie A; Mohn, Richard S

2016-06-01

The Client Evaluation of Motivational Interviewing scale (CEMI) is a measure for assessing client perceptions of clinicians' use of motivational interviewing (MI). This study explored the factorial, convergent and predictive validity of the CEMI with a sample of 137 college students who completed a brief motivational intervention for alcohol harm reduction. A two factor structure was confirmed, supporting previous findings of relational and technical subscales. The CEMI technical subscale partially mediated an increase in readiness to change drinking, while the relational subscale did not. Higher scores on CEMI technical subscale predicted higher scores on the tasks, bond and goals subscales of the Working Alliance Inventory while higher scores on the CEMI relationship subscale predicted an increase in the goals subscale. Finally, the correlations between the CEMI subscales and observer-rated MI spirit score and MI adherent and non-adherent behavioral counts were in the expected directions but did not reach statistical significance. Further revision and evaluation of the CEMI is recommended. Clinical, training and research implications are provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Talukdar, Rupjyoti; Vege, Santhi S

2015-09-01

To summarize recent data on classification systems, cause, risk factors, severity prediction, nutrition, and drug treatment of acute pancreatitis. Comparison of the Revised Atlanta Classification and Determinant Based Classification has shown heterogeneous results. Simvastatin has a protective effect against acute pancreatitis. Young black male, alcohol, smoldering symptoms, and subsequent diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis are risk factors associated with readmissions after acute pancreatitis. A reliable clinical or laboratory marker or a scoring system to predict severity is lacking. The PYTHON trial has shown that oral feeding with on demand nasoenteric tube feeding after 72 h is as good as nasoenteric tube feeding within 24 h in preventing infections in predicted severe acute pancreatitis. Male sex, multiple organ failure, extent of pancreatic necrosis, and heterogeneous collection are factors associated with failure of percutaneous drainage of pancreatic collections. The newly proposed classification systems of acute pancreatitis need to be evaluated more critically. New biomarkers are needed for severity prediction. Further well designed studies are required to assess the type of enteral nutritional formulations for acute pancreatitis. The optimal minimally invasive method or combination to debride the necrotic collections is evolving. There is a great need for a drug to treat the disease early on to prevent morbidity and mortality.

Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

2018-02-01

ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

Factors Predicting Recovery of Oral Intake in Stroke Survivors with Dysphagia in a Convalescent Rehabilitation Ward.

PubMed

Ikenaga, Yasunori; Nakayama, Sayaka; Taniguchi, Hiroki; Ohori, Isao; Komatsu, Nahoko; Nishimura, Hitoshi; Katsuki, Yasuo

2017-05-01

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy may be performed in dysphagic stroke patients. However, some patients regain complete oral intake without gastrostomy. This study aimed to investigate the predictive factors of intake, thereby determining gastrostomy indications. Stroke survivors admitted to our convalescent rehabilitation ward who underwent gastrostomy or nasogastric tube placement from 2009 to 2015 were divided into 2 groups based on intake status at discharge. Demographic data and Functional Independence Measure (FIM), Dysphagia Severity Scale (DSS), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores on admission were compared between groups. We evaluated the factors predicting intake using a stepwise logistic regression analysis. Thirty-four patients recovered intake, whereas 38 achieved incomplete intake. Mean age was lower, mean body mass index (BMI) was higher, and mean time from stroke onset to admission was shorter in the complete intake group. The complete intake group had less impairment in terms of GCS, FIM, and DSS scores. In the stepwise logistic regression analysis, BMI, FIM-cognitive score, and DSS score were significant independent factors predicting intake. The formula of BMI × .26 + FIM cognitive score × .19 + DSS score × 1.60 predicted recovery of complete intake with a sensitivity of 88.2% and a specificity of 84.2%. Stroke survivors with dysphagia with a high BMI and FIM-cognitive and DSS scores tended to recover oral intake. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lymphopenia predicts poor prognosis in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Feng, Ji-Feng; Liu, Jin-Shi; Huang, Ying

2014-12-01

Lymphopenia is a useful predictive factor in several cancers. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of lymphopenia in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).A retrospective analysis of 307 consecutive patients who had undergone esophagectomy for ESCC was conducted. In our study, a lymphocyte count (LC) of fewer than 1.0 Giga/L was defined as lymphopenia. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also plotted to verify the accuracy of LC for CSS prediction.The mean LC was 1.55 ± 0.64 Giga/L (range 0.4-3.7 Giga/L). The incidence of lymphopenia (LC < 1.0 Giga/L) was 16.6% (51/307). Patients with lymphopenia (LC < 1.0 Giga/L) had a significantly shorter 5-year CSS (21.6% vs 43.8%, P = 0.004). On multivariate analysis, lymphopenia (LC < 1.0 Giga/L) was an independent prognostic factor in patients with ESCC (P = 0.013). Lymphopenia had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.579 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.100-2.265] for CSS. ROC curve demonstrated that lymphopenia (LC < 1.0 Giga/L) predicts survival with a sensitivity of 86.2% and a specificity of 27.2%. Lymphopenia (LC < 1.0 Giga/L) is still an independent predictive factor for long-term survival in patients with ESCC.

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Occupancy by key transcription factors is a more accurate predictor of enhancer activity than histone modifications or chromatin accessibility

DOE PAGES

Dogan, Nergiz; Wu, Weisheng; Morrissey, Christapher S.; ...

2015-04-23

Regulated gene expression controls organismal development, and variation in regulatory patterns has been implicated in complex traits. Thus accurate prediction of enhancers is important for further understanding of these processes. Genome-wide measurement of epigenetic features, such as histone modifications and occupancy by transcription factors, is improving enhancer predictions, but the contribution of these features to prediction accuracy is not known. Given the importance of the hematopoietic transcription factor TAL1 for erythroid gene activation, we predicted candidate enhancers based on genomic occupancy by TAL1 and measured their activity. Contributions of multiple features to enhancer prediction were evaluated based on the resultsmore » of these and other studies. Results: TAL1-bound DNA segments were active enhancers at a high rate both in transient transfections of cultured cells (39 of 79, or 56%) and transgenic mice (43 of 66, or 65%). The level of binding signal for TAL1 or GATA1 did not help distinguish TAL1-bound DNA segments as active versus inactive enhancers, nor did the density of regulation-related histone modifications. A meta-analysis of results from this and other studies (273 tested predicted enhancers) showed that the presence of TAL1, GATA1, EP300, SMAD1, H3K4 methylation, H3K27ac, and CAGE tags at DNase hypersensitive sites gave the most accurate predictors of enhancer activity, with a success rate over 80% and a median threefold increase in activity. Chromatin accessibility assays and the histone modifications H3K4me1 and H3K27ac were sensitive for finding enhancers, but they have high false positive rates unless transcription factor occupancy is also included. Conclusions: Occupancy by key transcription factors such as TAL1, GATA1, SMAD1, and EP300, along with evidence of transcription, improves the accuracy of enhancer predictions based on epigenetic features.« less

Incremental Value of Repeated Risk Factor Measurements for Cardiovascular Disease Prediction in Middle-Aged Korean Adults: Results From the NHIS-HEALS (National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort).

PubMed

Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chung, Namsik; Kim, Hyeon Chang

2017-11-01

Increasing evidence suggests that repeatedly measured cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may have an additive predictive value compared with single measured levels. Thus, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of incorporating periodic health screening data for CVD prediction in a large nationwide cohort with periodic health screening tests. A total of 467 708 persons aged 40 to 79 years and free from CVD were randomly divided into development (70%) and validation subcohorts (30%). We developed 3 different CVD prediction models: a single measure model using single time point screening data; a longitudinal average model using average risk factor values from periodic screening data; and a longitudinal summary model using average values and the variability of risk factors. The development subcohort included 327 396 persons who had 3.2 health screenings on average and 25 765 cases of CVD over 12 years. The C statistics (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the single measure, longitudinal average, and longitudinal summary models were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.682-0.698), 0.695 (95% CI, 0.687-0.703), and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.744-0.760) in men and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.722-0.742), 0.735 (95% CI, 0.725-0.745), and 0.790 (95% CI, 0.780-0.800) in women, respectively. The net reclassification index from the single measure model to the longitudinal average model was 1.78% in men and 1.33% in women, and the index from the longitudinal average model to the longitudinal summary model was 32.71% in men and 34.98% in women. Using averages of repeatedly measured risk factor values modestly improves CVD predictability compared with single measurement values. Incorporating the average and variability information of repeated measurements can lead to great improvements in disease prediction. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02931500. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictors of the patency of self-expandable metallic stents in malignant gastroduodenal obstruction.

PubMed

Kim, Seung Han; Chun, Hoon Jai; Yoo, In Kyung; Lee, Jae Min; Nam, Seung Joo; Choi, Hyuk Soon; Kim, Eun Sun; Keum, Bora; Seo, Yeon Seok; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Lee, Hong Sik; Um, Soon Ho; Kim, Chang Duck

2015-08-14

To investigate the predictive factors of self-expandable metallic stent patency after stent placement in patients with inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction. A total of 116 patients underwent stent placements for inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction at a tertiary academic center. Clinical success was defined as acceptable decompression of the obstructive lesion within the malignant gastroduodenal neoplasm. We evaluated patient comorbidities and clinical statuses using the World Health Organization's scoring system and categorized patient responses to chemotherapy using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria. We analyzed the relationships between possible predictive factors and stent patency. Self-expandable metallic stent placement was technically successful in all patients (100%), and the clinical success rate was 84.2%. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were correlated with a reduction in stent patency [P = 0.006; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.92, 95%CI: 1.36-6.25]. Palliative chemotherapy was statistically associated with an increase in stent patency (P = 0.009; aHR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.10-0.72). CEA levels can easily be measured at the time of stent placement and may help clinicians to predict stent patency and determine the appropriate stent procedure.

[Negative and positive predictive relationships between coping strategies and the three dimensions of burnout among Hungarian medical students].

PubMed

Ádám, Szilvia; Nistor, Anikó; Nistor, Katalin; Hazag, Anikó

2014-08-10

Effective management and prevention of widespread burnout among medical students in Hungary require thorough understanding of its relations to coping strategies, which lacks sufficient data. To explore the prevalence of burnout and its relations to coping strategies among medical students. Cross-sectional study with 292 participants. Burnout was assessed by the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey. Coping strategies were evaluated by the Folkman-Lazarus Ways of Coping Questionnaire and questions about health-maintenance behaviours. Associations between burnout and coping strategies were explored with linear regression analyses. The prevalence of high-level burnout was 25-56%. Both problem-focused coping and support-seeking were protective factors of exhaustion and cynicism, however, they predicted reduced personal accomplishment. Emotion-focused coping predicted exhaustion and cynicism and correlated negatively with reduced personal accomplishment. Health-maintenance behaviours were protective factors for exhaustion and predicted reduced personal accomplishment. Deployment of coping strategies that target the most prevalent burnout dimension may improve effective management of burnout.

Evaluating shortened versions of the AUDIT as screeners for alcohol use problems in a general population study

PubMed Central

Nayak, Madhabika B.; Bond, Jason C.; Greenfield, Thomas K.

2015-01-01

Background Efficient alcohol screening measures are important to prevent or treat alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Objectives We studied different versions of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) comparing their performance to the full AUDIT and an AUD measure as screeners for alcohol use problems in Goa, India. Methods Data from a general population study on 743 male drinkers aged 18 to 49 years are reported. Drinkers completed the AUDIT and an AUD measure. We created shorter versions of the AUDIT by a) collapsing AUDIT item responses into 3 and 2 categories and b) deleting 2 items with the lowest factor loadings. Each version was evaluated using factor, reliability and validity, and differential item functioning (DIF) analysis by age, education, standard of living index (SLI), and area of residence. Results A single factor solution was found for each version with lower factor loadings for items on guilt and concern. There were no significant differences among the different AUDIT versions in predicting AUD. No significant DIF was found by education, SLI or area of residence. DIF was observed for the alcohol frequency item by age. Conclusions/Importance The AUDIT may be used with dichotomized response options without loss of predictive validity. A shortened 8-item dichotomized scale can adequately screen for AUDs in Goa when brevity is of paramount importance, although with lower predictive validity. Although the frequency item was endorsed more by older men, there is no evidence that the AUDIT items perform differently in other groups of male drinkers in Goa. PMID:26549791

Factors affecting quality of life in adults with epilepsy in Taiwan: A cross-sectional, correlational study.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Fang; Tsai, Yun-Fang; Hsi, Mo-Song; Chen, Jui-Chen

2016-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess eight factors considered important for quality of life in persons with epilepsy in order to determine which of these components affect quality of life in adults with epilepsy in Taiwan. A cross-sectional, correlational study using structured questionnaires assessed 260 patients with epilepsy purposively sampled from a medical center in Northern Taiwan. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was evaluated with the Quality of Life in Epilepsy-31 (QOLIE-31) questionnaire. Data also included personal and health-related characteristics, knowledge of epilepsy, efficacy in the self-management of epilepsy, and social support. Scores for the QOLIE-31 were correlated with the following factors: (1) demographic characteristics of age, gender, and income; (2) sleep quality; (3) symptoms of anxiety and depression; (4) epilepsy-specific variables: seizure frequency; types, number, and frequency of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs); and adverse events of AEDs; and (5) social support. Stepwise regression analysis showed that seven factors were predictive for quality of life: anxiety, depression, adverse events of AEDs, social support, seizure frequency of at least once in three months, household income of NT$ 40,001-100,000, and male gender. These factors accounted for 58.2% of the variance of quality of life. Our study assessed multiple factors in an examination of relationships and predictive factors for quality of life in adults with epilepsy in Taiwan. Knowledge of these contributing factors can assist health-care providers when evaluating patients with epilepsy to help target interventions for improving quality of life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Process evaluation of the project P.A.T.H.S. (secondary 2 program): findings based on the co-walker scheme.

PubMed

Shek, Daniel T L; Tam, Suet-yan

2009-01-01

To understand the implementation quality of the Tier 1 Program (Secondary 2 Curriculum) of the P.A.T.H.S. Project, process evaluation was carried out by co-walkers through classroom observation of 195 units in 131 schools. Results showed that the overall level of program adherence was generally high with an average of 84.55%, and different factors of the implementation process were evaluated as positive. Quality of program implementation and achievement of program objectives were predicted by students' participation and involvement, strategies to enhance students' motivation, opportunity for reflection, time management, and class preparation. Success in program implementation was predicted by students' participation and involvement, classroom control, interactive delivery method, strategies to enhance students' motivation, opportunity for reflection, and lesson preparation.

Team Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, David C.

1963-01-01

A study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of principals in structuring teaching teams; to assess background and personality characteristics appearing essential to successful individual and team performance; and to select personality factor scores which would predict individual and team success. Subjects were 31 teaching teams (99…

Predicting Abused Women With Children Who Return to a Shelter: Development and Use of a Rapid Assessment Triage Tool.

PubMed

McFarlane, Judith; Pennings, Jacquelyn; Liu, Fuqin; Gilroy, Heidi; Nava, Angeles; Maddoux, John A; Montalvo-Liendo, Nora; Paulson, René

2016-02-01

To develop a tool to predict risk for return to a shelter, 150 women with children, exiting a domestic violence shelter, were evaluated every 4 months for 24 months to determine risk factors for returning to a shelter. The study identified four risk factors, including danger for murder, woman's age (i.e., older women), tangible support (i.e., access to money, transportation), and child witness to verbal abuse of the mother. An easy to use, quick triage tool with a weighted score was derived, which can identify with 90% accuracy abused women with children most likely to return to shelters. © The Author(s) 2015.

Impact of disseminated tumor cells in gastrointestinal cancer.

PubMed

Thorban, Stefan; Rosenberg, Robert; Maak, Matthias; Friederichs, Jan; Gertler, Ralf; Siewert, Jörg-Rüdiger

2006-05-01

The detection of epithelial cells by sensitive immunological and molecular methods in blood, lymph nodes or bone marrow of gastrointestinal cancer patients may open a new approach to clinical metastasis research. The phenotypic and genomic characterization of these cells is of great value in the prediction of the further course of the disease and the monitoring of response to treatment. In addition, the role of ultrastaging in blood, lymph nodes and bone marrow of cancer patients for the indication of multimodal therapy is discussed in this review. The impact of prognostic or predictive factors for new treatment protocols in patients with gastrointestinal cancer was evaluated as well as the correlation with clinical factors.

An evaluation of NASA's program in human factors research: Aircrew-vehicle system interaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Research in human factors in the aircraft cockpit and a proposed program augmentation were reviewed. The dramatic growth of microprocessor technology makes it entirely feasible to automate increasingly more functions in the aircraft cockpit; the promise of improved vehicle performance, efficiency, and safety through automation makes highly automated flight inevitable. An organized data base and validated methodology for predicting the effects of automation on human performance and thus on safety are lacking and without such a data base and validated methodology for analyzing human performance, increased automation may introduce new risks. Efforts should be concentrated on developing methods and techniques for analyzing man machine interactions, including human workload and prediction of performance.

The Mediating Role of Internet Connection, Virtual Friends, and Mood in Predicting Loneliness among Students with and without Learning Disabilities in Different Educational Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharabi, Adi; Margalit, Malka

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a multidimensional model of loneliness as related to risk and protective factors among adolescents with learning disabilities (LD). The authors aimed to identify factors that mediated loneliness among 716 adolescents in Grades 10 through 12 who were studying in high schools or in Youth Education Centers for at-risk…

The prognostic value of sleep patterns in disorders of consciousness in the sub-acute phase.

PubMed

Arnaldi, Dario; Terzaghi, Michele; Cremascoli, Riccardo; De Carli, Fabrizio; Maggioni, Giorgio; Pistarini, Caterina; Nobili, Flavio; Moglia, Arrigo; Manni, Raffaele

2016-02-01

This study aimed to evaluate, through polysomnographic analysis, the prognostic value of sleep patterns, compared to other prognostic factors, in patients with disorders of consciousness (DOCs) in the sub-acute phase. Twenty-seven patients underwent 24-h polysomnography and clinical evaluation 3.5 ± 2 months after brain injury. Their clinical outcome was assessed 18.5 ± 9.9 months later. Polysomnographic recordings were evaluated using visual and quantitative indexes. A general linear model was applied to identify features able to predict clinical outcome. Clinical status at follow-up was analysed as a function of the baseline clinical status, the interval between brain injury and follow-up evaluation, patient age and gender, the aetiology of the injury, the lesion site, and visual and quantitative sleep indexes. A better clinical outcome was predicted by a visual index indicating the presence of sleep integrity (p=0.0006), a better baseline clinical status (p=0.014), and younger age (p=0.031). Addition of the quantitative sleep index strengthened the prediction. More structured sleep emerged as a valuable predictor of a positive clinical outcome in sub-acute DOC patients, even stronger than established predictors (e.g. age and baseline clinical condition). Both visual and quantitative sleep evaluation could be helpful in predicting clinical outcome in sub-acute DOCs. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of SimpleTreat 4.0: Simulations of pharmaceutical removal in wastewater treatment plant facilities.

PubMed

Lautz, L S; Struijs, J; Nolte, T M; Breure, A M; van der Grinten, E; van de Meent, D; van Zelm, R

2017-02-01

In this study, the removal of pharmaceuticals from wastewater as predicted by SimpleTreat 4.0 was evaluated. Field data obtained from literature of 43 pharmaceuticals, measured in 51 different activated sludge WWTPs were used. Based on reported influent concentrations, the effluent concentrations were calculated with SimpleTreat 4.0 and compared to measured effluent concentrations. The model predicts effluent concentrations mostly within a factor of 10, using the specific WWTP parameters as well as SimpleTreat default parameters, while it systematically underestimates concentrations in secondary sludge. This may be caused by unexpected sorption, resulting from variability in WWTP operating conditions, and/or QSAR applicability domain mismatch and background concentrations prior to measurements. Moreover, variability in detection techniques and sampling methods can cause uncertainty in measured concentration levels. To find possible structural improvements, we also evaluated SimpleTreat 4.0 using several specific datasets with different degrees of uncertainty and variability. This evaluation verified that the most influencing parameters for water effluent predictions were biodegradation and the hydraulic retention time. Results showed that model performance is highly dependent on the nature and quality, i.e. degree of uncertainty, of the data. The default values for reactor settings in SimpleTreat result in realistic predictions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human action quality evaluation based on fuzzy logic with application in underground coal mining.

PubMed

Ionica, Andreea; Leba, Monica

2015-01-01

The work system is defined by its components, their roles and the relationships between them. Any work system gravitates around the human resource and the interdependencies between human factor and the other components of it. Researches in this field agreed that the human factor and its actions are difficult to quantify and predict. The objective of this paper is to apply a method of human actions evaluation in order to estimate possible risks and prevent possible system faults, both at human factor level and at equipment level. In order to point out the importance of the human factor influence on all the elements of the working systems we propose a fuzzy logic based methodology for quality evaluation of human actions. This methodology has a multidisciplinary character, as it gathers ideas and methods from: quality management, ergonomics, work safety and artificial intelligence. The results presented refer to a work system with a high degree of specificity, namely, underground coal mining and are valuable for human resources risk evaluation pattern. The fuzzy logic evaluation of the human actions leads to early detection of possible dangerous evolutions of the work system and alarm the persons in charge.

Multivariate predictors of music perception and appraisal by adult cochlear implant users.

PubMed

Gfeller, Kate; Oleson, Jacob; Knutson, John F; Breheny, Patrick; Driscoll, Virginia; Olszewski, Carol

2008-02-01

The research examined whether performance by adult cochlear implant recipients on a variety of recognition and appraisal tests derived from real-world music could be predicted from technological, demographic, and life experience variables, as well as speech recognition scores. A representative sample of 209 adults implanted between 1985 and 2006 participated. Using multiple linear regression models and generalized linear mixed models, sets of optimal predictor variables were selected that effectively predicted performance on a test battery that assessed different aspects of music listening. These analyses established the importance of distinguishing between the accuracy of music perception and the appraisal of musical stimuli when using music listening as an index of implant success. Importantly, neither device type nor processing strategy predicted music perception or music appraisal. Speech recognition performance was not a strong predictor of music perception, and primarily predicted music perception when the test stimuli included lyrics. Additionally, limitations in the utility of speech perception in predicting musical perception and appraisal underscore the utility of music perception as an alternative outcome measure for evaluating implant outcomes. Music listening background, residual hearing (i.e., hearing aid use), cognitive factors, and some demographic factors predicted several indices of perceptual accuracy or appraisal of music.

Predictors for the need for endoscopic therapy in patients with presumed acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Kim, Su Sun; Kim, Kyung Up; Kim, Sung Jun; Seo, Seung In; Kim, Hyoung Su; Jang, Myoung Kuk; Kim, Hak Yang; Shin, Woon Geon

2017-12-15

Selecting patients with an urgent need for endoscopic hemostasis is difficult based only on simple parameters of presumed acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. This study assessed easily applicable factors to predict cases in need of urgent endoscopic hemostasis due to acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The consecutively included patients were divided into the endoscopic hemostasis and nonendoscopic hemostasis groups. We reviewed the enrolled patients' medical records and analyzed various variables and parameters for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding outcomes such as demographic factors, comorbidities, symptoms, signs, laboratory findings, rebleeding rate, and mortality to evaluate simple predictive factors for endoscopic treatment. A total of 613 patients were analyzed, including 329 patients in the endoscopic hemostasis and 284 patients in the non-endoscopic hemostasis groups. In the multivariate analysis, a bloody nasogastric lavage (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 6.786; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.990 to 11.543; p < 0.0001) and a hemoglobin level less than 8.6 g/dL (AOR, 1.768; 95% CI, 1.028 to 3.039; p = 0.039) were independent predictors for endoscopic hemostasis. Significant differences in the morbidity rates of endoscopic hemostasis were detected between the group with no predictive factors and the group with one or more predictive factors (OR, 2.677; 95% CI, 1.920 to 3.733; p < 0.0001). A bloody nasogastric lavage and hemoglobin < 8.6 g/dL were independent predictors of endoscopic hemostasis in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

PubMed

Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

BMI or BIA: Is Body Mass Index or Body Fat Mass a Better Predictor of Cardiovascular Risk in Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents? A German/Austrian/Swiss Multicenter APV Analysis of 3,327 Children and Adolescents.

PubMed

Bohn, Barbara; Müller, Manfred James; Simic-Schleicher, Gunter; Kiess, Wieland; Siegfried, Wolfgang; Oelert, Monika; Tuschy, Sabine; Berghem, Stefan; Holl, Reinhard W

2015-01-01

Body fat (BF) percentiles for German children and adolescents have recently been published. This study aims to evaluate the association between bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA)-derived BF and cardiovascular risk factors and to investigate whether BF is better suited than BMI in children and adolescents. Data of 3,327 children and adolescents (BMI > 90th percentile) were included. Spearman's correlation and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) were applied determining the associations between BMI or BF and cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, dyslipidemia, elevated liver enzymes, abnormal carbohydrate metabolism). Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to predict cardiovascular risk factors. A significant association between both obesity indices and hypertension was present (all p < 0.0001), but the correlation with BMI was stronger (r = 0.22) compared to BF (r = 0.13). There were no differences between BMI and BF regarding their correlation with other cardiovascular risk factors. BF significantly predicted hypertension (AUC = 0.61), decreased HDL-cholesterol (AUC = 0.58), elevated LDL-cholesterol (AUC = 0.59), elevated liver enzymes (AUC = 0.61) (all p < 0.0001), and elevated triglycerides (AUC = 0.57, p < 0.05), but not abnormal carbohydrate metabolism (AUC = 0.54, p = 0.15). For the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors, no significant differences between BMI and BF were observed. BIA-derived BF was not superior to BMI to predict cardiovascular risk factors in overweight or obese children and adolescents.

Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission—even at a very local scale—is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors. As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages. This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics. PMID:22238582

The creation and evaluation of a model to simulate the probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy heifers.

PubMed

Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Butler, Stephen; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John

2017-01-01

Herd fertility in pasture-based dairy farms is a key driver of farm economics. Models for predicting nulliparous reproductive outcomes are rare, but age, genetics, weight, and BCS have been identified as factors influencing heifer conception. The aim of this study was to create a simulation model of heifer conception to service with thorough evaluation. Artificial Insemination service records from two research herds and ten commercial herds were provided to build and evaluate the models. All were managed as spring-calving pasture-based systems. The factors studied were related to age, genetics, and time of service. The data were split into training and testing sets and bootstrapping was used to train the models. Logistic regression (with and without random effects) and generalised additive modelling were selected as the model-building techniques. Two types of evaluation were used to test the predictive ability of the models: discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, which includes sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and ROC analysis, measures a model's ability to distinguish between positive and negative outcomes. Calibration measures the accuracy of the predicted probabilities with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, calibration plot and calibration error. After data cleaning and the removal of services with missing values, 1396 services remained to train the models and 597 were left for testing. Age, breed, genetic predicted transmitting ability for calving interval, month and year were significant in the multivariate models. The regression models also included an interaction between age and month. Year within herd was a random effect in the mixed regression model. Overall prediction accuracy was between 77.1% and 78.9%. All three models had very high sensitivity, but low specificity. The two regression models were very well-calibrated. The mean absolute calibration errors were all below 4%. Because the models were not adept at identifying unsuccessful services, they are not suggested for use in predicting the outcome of individual heifer services. Instead, they are useful for the comparison of services with different covariate values or as sub-models in whole-farm simulations. The mixed regression model was identified as the best model for prediction, as the random effects can be ignored and the other variables can be easily obtained or simulated.

New positron emission tomography derived parameters as predictive factors for recurrence in resected stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Melloni, G; Gajate, A M S; Sestini, S; Gallivanone, F; Bandiera, A; Landoni, C; Muriana, P; Gianolli, L; Zannini, P

2013-11-01

The recurrence rate for stage I non-small cell lung cancer is high, with 20-40% of patients that relapse after surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate new F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) derived parameters, such as standardized uptake value index (SUVindex), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), as predictive factors for recurrence in resected stage I non-small cell lung cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 99 resected stage I non-small cell lung cancer patients that were grouped by SUVindex, TLG and MTV above or below their median value. Disease free survival was evaluated as primary end point. The 5-year overall survival and the 5-year disease free survival rates were 62% and 73%, respectively. The median SUVindex, MTL and TLG were 2.73, 2.95 and 9.61, respectively. Patients with low SUVindex, MTV and TLG were more likely to have smaller tumors (p ≤ 0.001). Univariate analysis demonstrated that SUVindex (p = 0.027), MTV (p = 0.014) and TLG (p = 0.006) were significantly related to recurrence showing a better predictive performance than SUVmax (p = 0.031). The 5-year disease free survival rates in patients with low and high SUVindex, MTV and TLG were 84% and 59%, 86% and 62% and 88% and 60%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that only TLG was an independent prognostic factor (p = 0.014) with a hazard ratio of 4.782. Of the three PET-derived parameters evaluated, TLG seems to be the most accurate in stratifying surgically treated stage I non-small cell lung cancer patients according to their risk of recurrence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Physical Impairment after Acute Lung Injury in a National, Multicenter Study

PubMed Central

Wozniak, Amy W.; Hough, Catherine L.; Morris, Peter E.; Dinglas, Victor D.; Jackson, James C.; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A.; Shanholtz, Carl; Ely, E. Wesley; Colantuoni, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Rationale: Existing studies of risk factors for physical impairments in acute lung injury (ALI) survivors were potentially limited by single-center design or relatively small sample size. Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for three measures of physical impairments commonly experienced by survivors of ALI in the first year after hospitalization. Methods: A prospective, longitudinal study of 6- and 12-month physical outcomes (muscle strength, 6-minute-walk distance, and Short Form [SF]-36 Physical Function score) for 203 survivors of ALI enrolled from 12 hospitals participating in the ARDS Network randomized trials. Multivariable regression analyses evaluated the independent association of critical illness–related variables and intensive care interventions with impairments in each physical outcome measure, after adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidities, and baseline functional status. Measurements and Main Results: At 6 and 12 months, respectively, mean (± SD) values for strength (presented as proportion of maximum strength score evaluated using manual muscle testing) was 92% (± 8%) and 93% (± 9%), 6-minute-walk distance (as percent-predicted) was 64% (± 22%) and 67% (± 26%), and SF-36 Physical Function score (as percent-predicted) was 61% (± 36%) and 67% (± 37%). After accounting for patient baseline status, there was significant association and statistical interaction of mean daily dose of corticosteroids and intensive care unit length of stay with impairments in physical outcomes. Conclusions: Patients had substantial impairments, from predicted values, for 6-minute-walk distance and SF-36 Physical Function outcome measures. Minimizing corticosteroid dose and implementing existing evidence-based methods to reduce duration of intensive care unit stay and associated patient immobilization may be important interventions for improving ALI survivors’ physical outcomes. PMID:24716641

Validation of a new measure of availability and accommodation of health care that is valid for rural and urban contexts.

PubMed

Haggerty, Jeannie L; Levesque, Jean-Frédéric

2017-04-01

Patients are the most valid source for evaluating the accessibility of services, but a previous study observed differential psychometric performance of instruments in rural and urban respondents. To validate a measure of organizational accessibility free of differential rural-urban performance that predicts consequences of difficult access for patient-initiated care. Sequential qualitative-quantitative study. Qualitative findings used to adapt or develop evaluative and reporting items. Quantitative validation study. Primary data by telephone from 750 urban, rural and remote respondents in Quebec, Canada; follow-up mailed questionnaire to a subset of 316. Items were developed for barriers along the care trajectory. We used common factor and confirmatory factor analysis to identify constructs and compare models. We used item response theory analysis to test for differential rural-urban performance; examine individual item performance; adjust response options; and exclude redundant or non-discriminatory items. We used logistic regression to examine predictive validity of the subscale on access difficulty (outcome). Initial factor resolution suggested geographic and organizational dimensions, plus consequences of access difficulty. After second administration, organizational accommodation and geographic indicators were integrated into a 6-item subscale of Effective Availability and Accommodation, which demonstrates good variability and internal consistency (α = 0.84) and no differential functioning by geographic area. Each unit increase predicts decreased likelihood of consequences of access difficulties (unmet need and problem aggravation). The new subscale is a practical, valid and reliable measure for patients to evaluate first-contact health services accessibility, yielding valid comparisons between urban and rural contexts. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of failure to retain work 1 year after interdisciplinary functional restoration in occupational injuries.

PubMed

Brede, Emily; Mayer, Tom G; Gatchel, Robert J

2012-02-01

To identify risk factors for work retention (a patients' ability to both obtain and retain employment) at 1 year after treatment for a chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD). Prospective cohort study. Consecutive patients undergoing interdisciplinary functional restoration treatment in a regional rehabilitation referral center. A sample of 1850 consecutive CDOMD patients, who were admitted to and completed a functional restoration program, were subsequently classified as work retention or nonwork retention at a 1-year posttreatment evaluation. Not applicable. Measures, including medical evaluations, demographic and occupational data, psychosocial diagnostic evaluation, and validated measures of pain, disability, and depressive symptoms, were obtained at admission to, and discharge from, the program. Using a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the following variables were found to be significant predictors of failure to retain work: older age (odds ratio [OR]=1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-2.54), female sex (OR=1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-1.94), nonworking status at discharge (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.11-2.45), extreme disability at admission (OR=1.46; 95% CI, 1.06-2.00), antisocial personality disorder (OR=2.11; 95% CI, 1.09-4.08), receipt of government disability benefits at admission (OR=2.28; 95% CI, 1.06-4.89), and dependence on opiate pain medications (OR=1.43; 95% CI, 1.02-2.00). The final model improved prediction by 75% over assigning all patients to the larger (work retention) group. This study identified demographic, psychosocial, and occupational factors that were predictive of failure to retain work. These risk factors may be used to individualize treatment plans for CDOMD patients in order to provide optimal functional restoration. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protein construct storage: Bayesian variable selection and prediction with mixtures.

PubMed

Clyde, M A; Parmigiani, G

1998-07-01

Determining optimal conditions for protein storage while maintaining a high level of protein activity is an important question in pharmaceutical research. A designed experiment based on a space-filling design was conducted to understand the effects of factors affecting protein storage and to establish optimal storage conditions. Different model-selection strategies to identify important factors may lead to very different answers about optimal conditions. Uncertainty about which factors are important, or model uncertainty, can be a critical issue in decision-making. We use Bayesian variable selection methods for linear models to identify important variables in the protein storage data, while accounting for model uncertainty. We also use the Bayesian framework to build predictions based on a large family of models, rather than an individual model, and to evaluate the probability that certain candidate storage conditions are optimal.

What factors are predictors of emotional health in patients with full-thickness rotator cuff tears?

PubMed

Barlow, Jonathan D; Bishop, Julie Y; Dunn, Warren R; Kuhn, John E

2016-11-01

The importance of emotional and psychological factors in treatment of patients with rotator cuff disease has been recently emphasized. Our goal was to establish factors most predictive of poor emotional health in patients with full-thickness rotator cuff tears (FTRCTs). In 2007, we began to prospectively collect data on patients with symptomatic, atraumatic FTRCTs. All patients completed a questionnaire collecting data on demographics, symptom characteristics, comorbidities, willingness to undergo surgery, and patient-related outcomes (12-Item Short Form Health Survey, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score, Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index [WORC], Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation score, Shoulder Activity Scale). Physicians recorded physical examination and imaging data. To evaluate the predictors of lower WORC emotion scores, a linear multiple regression model was fit. Baseline data for 452 patients were used for analysis. In patients with symptomatic FTRCTs, the factors most predictive of worse WORC emotion scores were higher levels of pain (interquartile range odds ratio, -18.9; 95% confidence interval, -20.2 to -11.6; P < .0001) and lower Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation scores (rating of percentage normal that patients perceive their shoulder to be; interquartile range odds ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-9.95; P = .0012). Higher education (P = .006) and unemployment status (P = .0025) were associated with higher WORC emotion scores. Education level, employment status, pain levels, and patient perception of percentage of shoulder normalcy were most predictive of emotional health in patients with FTRCTs. Structural data, such astendon tear size, were not. Those with poor emotional health may perceive their shoulder to be worse than others and experience more pain. This may allow us to better optimize patient outcomes with nonoperative and operative treatment of rotator cuff tears. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

2018-04-01

Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

Pre-resuscitation factors associated with mortality in 49,130 cases of in-hospital cardiac arrest: a report from the National Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

PubMed

Larkin, Gregory Luke; Copes, Wayne S; Nathanson, Brian H; Kaye, William

2010-03-01

To evaluate key pre-arrest factors and their collective ability to predict post-cardiopulmonary arrest mortality. CPR is often initiated indiscriminately after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Improved understanding of pre-arrest factors associated with mortality may inform advance care planning. A cohort of 49,130 adults who experienced pulseless cardiopulmonary arrest from January 2000 to September 2004 was obtained from 366 US hospitals participating in the National Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (NRCPR). Logistic regression with bootstrapping was used to model in-hospital mortality, which included those discharged in unfavorable and severely worsened neurologic state (Cerebral Performance Category >/=3). Overall in-hospital mortality was 84.1%. Advanced age, black race, non-cardiac, non-surgical illness category, pre-existing malignancy, acute stroke, trauma, septicemia, hepatic insufficiency, general floor or Emergency Department location, and pre-arrest use of vasopressors or assisted/mechanical ventilation were independently predictive of in-hospital mortality. Retained peri-arrest factors including cardiac monitoring, and shockable initial pulseless rhythms, were strongly associated with survival. The validation model's AUROC curve (0.77) revealed fair performance. Predictive pre-resuscitation factors may supplement patient-specific information available at bedside to assist in revising resuscitation plans during the patient's hospitalization. Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Plasma Free Amino Acid Profiles Predict Four-Year Risk of Developing Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome, Dyslipidemia, and Hypertension in Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Yamakado, Minoru; Nagao, Kenji; Imaizumi, Akira; Tani, Mizuki; Toda, Akiko; Tanaka, Takayuki; Jinzu, Hiroko; Miyano, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Daimon, Takashi; Horimoto, Katsuhisa; Ishizaka, Yuko

2015-01-01

Plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile is highlighted in its association with visceral obesity and hyperinsulinemia, and future diabetes. Indeed PFAA profiling potentially can evaluate individuals’ future risks of developing lifestyle-related diseases, in addition to diabetes. However, few studies have been performed especially in Asian populations, about the optimal combination of PFAAs for evaluating health risks. We quantified PFAA levels in 3,701 Japanese subjects, and determined visceral fat area (VFA) and two-hour post-challenge insulin (Ins120 min) values in 865 and 1,160 subjects, respectively. Then, models between PFAA levels and the VFA or Ins120 min values were constructed by multiple linear regression analysis with variable selection. Finally, a cohort study of 2,984 subjects to examine capabilities of the obtained models for predicting four-year risk of developing new-onset lifestyle-related diseases was conducted. The correlation coefficients of the obtained PFAA models against VFA or Ins120 min were higher than single PFAA level. Our models work well for future risk prediction. Even after adjusting for commonly accepted multiple risk factors, these models can predict future development of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and dyslipidemia. PFAA profiles confer independent and differing contributions to increasing the lifestyle-related disease risks in addition to the currently known factors in a general Japanese population. PMID:26156880

The vehicle design evaluation program - A computer-aided design procedure for transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, B. H.; Kruse, G. S.; Schrader, O. E.

1977-01-01

The vehicle design evaluation program is described. This program is a computer-aided design procedure that provides a vehicle synthesis capability for vehicle sizing, external load analysis, structural analysis, and cost evaluation. The vehicle sizing subprogram provides geometry, weight, and balance data for aircraft using JP, hydrogen, or methane fuels. The structural synthesis subprogram uses a multistation analysis for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselages to develop theoretical weights and geometric dimensions. The parts definition subprogram uses the geometric data from the structural analysis and develops the predicted fabrication dimensions, parts material raw stock buy requirements, and predicted actual weights. The cost analysis subprogram uses detail part data in conjunction with standard hours, realization factors, labor rates, and material data to develop the manufacturing costs. The program is used to evaluate overall design effects on subsonic commercial type aircraft due to parameter variations.

Short-term prediction of threatening and violent behaviour in an Acute Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit based on patient and environment characteristics.

PubMed

Vaaler, Arne E; Iversen, Valentina C; Morken, Gunnar; Fløvig, John C; Palmstierna, Tom; Linaker, Olav M

2011-03-18

The aims of the present study were to investigate clinically relevant patient and environment-related predictive factors for threats and violent incidents the first three days in a PICU population based on evaluations done at admittance. In 2000 and 2001 all 118 consecutive patients were assessed at admittance to a Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Patient-related conditions as actuarial data from present admission, global clinical evaluations by physician at admittance and clinical nurses first day, a single rating with an observer rated scale scoring behaviours that predict short-term violence in psychiatric inpatients (The Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC)) at admittance, and environment-related conditions as use of segregation or not were related to the outcome measure Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R). A multiple logistic regression analysis with SOAS-R as outcome variable was performed. The global clinical evaluations and the BVC were effective and more suitable than actuarial data in predicting short-term aggression. The use of segregation reduced the number of SOAS-R incidents. In a naturalistic group of patients in a PICU segregation of patients lowers the number of aggressive and threatening incidents. Prediction should be based on clinical global judgment, and instruments designed to predict short-term aggression in psychiatric inpatients. NCT00184119/NCT00184132.

Short-term prediction of threatening and violent behaviour in an Acute Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit based on patient and environment characteristics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The aims of the present study were to investigate clinically relevant patient and environment-related predictive factors for threats and violent incidents the first three days in a PICU population based on evaluations done at admittance. Methods In 2000 and 2001 all 118 consecutive patients were assessed at admittance to a Psychiatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). Patient-related conditions as actuarial data from present admission, global clinical evaluations by physician at admittance and clinical nurses first day, a single rating with an observer rated scale scoring behaviours that predict short-term violence in psychiatric inpatients (The Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC)) at admittance, and environment-related conditions as use of segregation or not were related to the outcome measure Staff Observation Aggression Scale-Revised (SOAS-R). A multiple logistic regression analysis with SOAS-R as outcome variable was performed. Results The global clinical evaluations and the BVC were effective and more suitable than actuarial data in predicting short-term aggression. The use of segregation reduced the number of SOAS-R incidents. Conclusions In a naturalistic group of patients in a PICU segregation of patients lowers the number of aggressive and threatening incidents. Prediction should be based on clinical global judgment, and instruments designed to predict short-term aggression in psychiatric inpatients. Trial registrations NCT00184119/NCT00184132 PMID:21418581

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design

PubMed Central

Ai, A. L.; Ladd, K. L.; Peterson, C.; Cook, C. A.; Shearer, M.; Koenig, H. G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. Design and Methods: Analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. Results: Predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. Implications: The influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion–health relations. PMID:20634280

Pre-operative Predictive Factors of Post-operative Pain in Patients With Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hernández, Clara; Díaz-Heredia, Jorge; Berraquero, María Luisa; Crespo, Pablo; Loza, Estíbaliz; Ruiz Ibán, Miguel Ángel

2015-01-01

To analyze pre-surgical predictive factors of post-surgical pain in patients undergoing hip or knee arthoplasty. A systematic literature review was performed. We defined a sensitive strategy on Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library up to May 2013. The inclusion criteria were: patients undertaking knee and/or hip arthroplasty, adults with moderate or severe pain (≥4 on a Visual Analog Scale) in whom predictive factors of post-surgical pain were evaluated before surgery. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, controlled trials and observational studies were selected. We excluded animals and basic science articles, reviews of prosthesis, prosthesis due to fractures, patients with rheumatic diseases or studies with mixed population in which disaggregated data was not possible to obtain. A total 37 articles of moderate quality were selected. The articles included representative patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty in our country; most of them were aged 60 years or above, with osteoarthritis, and with a high rate of obesity and comorbidities. We found great variability regarding the type of studies and predictive factors. There was a strong association between post-surgical pain and the following pre-surgical factors: female gender, low socio-economic status, higher pain, comorbidities, low back pain, poor functional status, and psychological factors (depression, anxiety or catastrophic pain). There are pre-surgical factors that might influence post-surgical pain in patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty. Therefore, they should be taken into account when considering an arthroplasty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Maternal-foetal attachment independently predicts the quality of maternal-infant bonding and post-partum psychopathology.

PubMed

Petri, Eleonora; Palagini, Laura; Bacci, Olivia; Borri, Chiara; Teristi, Valentina; Corezzi, Camilla; Faraoni, Sara; Antonelli, Paolo; Cargioli, Claudio; Banti, Susanna; Perugi, Giulio; Mauri, Mauro

2017-08-21

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of maternal antenatal attachment and post-partum psychopathology, maternal-infant bonding, while checking for antenatal psychopathology, for lifetime psychiatric diagnosis and for the known risk factors for peripartum depression. One hundred and six women recruited at the first month of pregnancy (T0) were evaluated with the structured interview for DSM-IV TR (SCID-I) to assess the presence of lifetime psychiatric diagnosis and with the Perinatal Depression Predictor Inventory-Revised (PDPI-R), the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). At the sixth month of pregnancy (T1) and at the first month post-partum (T2), all patients were evaluated with the PDPI-R, the EPDS, the STAI, at T1, with the Maternal Antenatal Attachment Scale (MAAS), and at T2 with the Maternal Postnatal Attachment Scale (MPAS). Multivariate regression analyses showed that maternal-foetal attachment was the variable most significantly associated with postnatal symptoms of depression and anxiety and with quality of maternal-infant attachment. The logistic regression analyses showed that antenatal attachment may predict postnatal depressive and anxiety symptoms (respectively, OR: 0.83 - IC [0.74 - 0.95], p = .005, OR: 0.88 - IC [0.79 - 0.98], p = .02), and the quality of maternal postnatal attachment (OR: 1.17 - IC [1.08 - 1.27], p < .001), also after taking into account the known risk factors for perinatal depression, the sociodemographic variables and lifetime psychiatric diagnosis. The quality of maternal-foetal bonding may independently predict the quality of maternal-infant attachment and post-partum depressive and anxiety symptoms. A comprehensive assessment of maternal risk factors for perinatal psychopathology during pregnancy should include the evaluation of antenatal attachment that could be modifiable by specific interventions promoting the quality of maternal bonding.

Deriving field-based species sensitivity distributions (f-SSDs) from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs).

PubMed

Schipper, Aafke M; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-12-16

Quantitative relationships between species richness and single environmental factors, also called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), are helpful to understand and predict biodiversity patterns, identify environmental management options and set environmental quality standards. However, species richness is typically dependent on a variety of environmental factors, implying that it is not straightforward to quantify SSDs from field monitoring data. Here, we present a novel and flexible approach to solve this, based on the method of stacked species distribution modeling. First, a species distribution model (SDM) is established for each species, describing its probability of occurrence in relation to multiple environmental factors. Next, the predictions of the SDMs are stacked along the gradient of each environmental factor with the remaining environmental factors at fixed levels. By varying those fixed levels, our approach can be used to investigate how field-based SSDs for a given environmental factor change in relation to changing confounding influences, including for example optimal, typical, or extreme environmental conditions. This provides an asset in the evaluation of potential management measures to reach good ecological status.

Utility of Inflammatory Marker- and Nutritional Status-based Prognostic Factors for Predicting the Prognosis of Stage IV Gastric Cancer Patients Undergoing Non-curative Surgery.

PubMed

Mimatsu, Kenji; Fukino, Nobutada; Ogasawara, Yasuo; Saino, Yoko; Oida, Takatsugu

2017-08-01

The present study aimed to compare the utility of various inflammatory marker- and nutritional status-based prognostic factors, including many previous established prognostic factors, for predicting the prognosis of stage IV gastric cancer patients undergoing non-curative surgery. A total of 33 patients with stage IV gastric cancer who had undergone palliative gastrectomy and gastrojejunostomy were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the relationships between the mGPS, PNI, NLR, PLR, the CONUT, various clinicopathological factors and cancer-specific survival (CS). Among patients who received non-curative surgery, univariate analysis of CS identified the following significant risk factors: chemotherapy, mGPS and NLR, and multivariate analysis revealed that the mGPS was independently associated with CS. The mGPS was a more useful prognostic factor than the PNI, NLR, PLR and CONUT in patients undergoing non-curative surgery for stage IV gastric cancer. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Biological and behavioral factors modify urinary arsenic metabolic profiles in a U.S. population.

PubMed

Hudgens, Edward E; Drobna, Zuzana; He, Bin; Le, X C; Styblo, Miroslav; Rogers, John; Thomas, David J

2016-05-26

Because some adverse health effects associated with chronic arsenic exposure may be mediated by methylated arsenicals, interindividual variation in capacity to convert inorganic arsenic into mono- and di-methylated metabolites may be an important determinant of risk associated with exposure to this metalloid. Hence, identifying biological and behavioral factors that modify an individual's capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic could provide insights into critical dose-response relations underlying adverse health effects. A total of 904 older adults (≥45 years old) in Churchill County, Nevada, who chronically used home tap water supplies containing up to 1850 μg of arsenic per liter provided urine and toenail samples for determination of total and speciated arsenic levels. Effects of biological factors (gender, age, body mass index) and behavioral factors (smoking, recent fish or shellfish consumption) on patterns of arsenicals in urine were evaluated with bivariate analyses and multivariate regression models. Relative contributions of inorganic, mono-, and di-methylated arsenic to total speciated arsenic in urine were unchanged over the range of concentrations of arsenic in home tap water supplies used by study participants. Gender predicted both absolute and relative amounts of arsenicals in urine. Age predicted levels of inorganic arsenic in urine and body mass index predicted relative levels of mono- and di-methylated arsenic in urine. Smoking predicted both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Multivariate regression models were developed for both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Concentration of arsenic in home tap water and estimated water consumption were strongly predictive of levels of arsenicals in urine as were smoking, body mass index, and gender. Relative contributions of arsenicals to urinary arsenic were not consistently predicted by concentrations of arsenic in drinking water supplies but were more consistently predicted by gender, body mass index, age, and smoking. These findings suggest that analyses of dose-response relations in arsenic-exposed populations should account for biological and behavioral factors that modify levels of inorganic and methylated arsenicals in urine. Evidence of significant effects of these factors on arsenic metabolism may also support mode of action studies in appropriate experimental models.

Measurement and Modeling of the Optical Scattering Properties of Crop Canopies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanderbilt, V. C. (Principal Investigator)

1985-01-01

The specular reflection process is shown to be a key aspect of radiation transfer by plant canopies. Polarization measurements are demonstrated as the tool for determining the specular and diffuse portions of the canopy radiance. The magnitude of the specular fraction of the reflectance is significant compared to the magnitude of the diffuse fraction. Therefore, it is necessary to consider specularly reflected light in developing and evaluating light-canopy interaction models for wheat canopies. Models which assume leaves are diffuse reflectors correctly predict only the diffuse fraction of the canopy reflectance factor. The specular reflectance model, when coupled with a diffuse leaf model, would predict both the specular and diffuse portions of the reflectance factor. The specular model predicts and the data analysis confirms that the single variable, angle of incidence of specularly reflected sunlight on the leaf, explains much of variation in the polarization data as a function of view-illumination directions.

Social ecology of child soldiers: child, family, and community determinants of mental health, psychosocial well-being, and reintegration in Nepal.

PubMed

Kohrt, Brandon A; Jordans, Mark J D; Tol, Wietse A; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2010-11-01

This study employed a social ecology framework to evaluate psychosocial well-being in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of functional impairment and reintegration. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the contribution of factors at multiple levels. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted lack of reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors.

Stress Associated with Transportation: A Survey of Persons with Visual Impairments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crudden, Adele; Cmar, Jennifer L.; McDonnall, Michele C.

2017-01-01

Introduction: This study evaluated transportation-related stress and factors predicting stress among persons with visual impairments. Methods: Participants with visual impairments completed electronic surveys rating their stress levels experienced when completing various walking and public transportation tasks. They also indicated activities they…

76 FR 57017 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

...) Predict or detect trends in disease occurrence and movement, (4) Understand the risk factors for disease... mathematical models of animal disease to evaluate potential control scenarios, (7) Make recommendation for..., and diagnostic testing needs. Description of Respondents: Business or other for-profit. Number of...

Evaluation of the Enhanced Integrated Climatic Model for modulus-based construction specification for Oklahoma pavements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-07-01

The study provides estimation of site specific variation in environmental factors that can be : used in predicting seasonal and long-term variations in moduli of unbound materials. Using : these site specific estimates, the EICM climatic input files ...

Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

2017-11-18

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children < 6 years old (preschool age) for predicting asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P < 0.001), atopic dermatitis (pooled OR = 2.02, P < 0.001), a family history of asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P < 0.001), and serum IgE levels ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE (pooled OR = 2.36, P < 0.001). A history of exposure to smoke or wheezing was also associated with persistent asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P < 0.001, respectively). In general, asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

Weighted Genetic Risk Scores and Prediction of Weight Gain in Solid Organ Transplant Populations

PubMed Central

Saigi-Morgui, Núria; Quteineh, Lina; Bochud, Pierre-Yves; Crettol, Severine; Kutalik, Zoltán; Wojtowicz, Agnieszka; Bibert, Stéphanie; Beckmann, Sonja; Mueller, Nicolas J; Binet, Isabelle; van Delden, Christian; Steiger, Jürg; Mohacsi, Paul; Stirnimann, Guido; Soccal, Paola M.; Pascual, Manuel; Eap, Chin B

2016-01-01

Background Polygenic obesity in Solid Organ Transplant (SOT) populations is considered a risk factor for the development of metabolic abnormalities and graft survival. Few studies to date have studied the genetics of weight gain in SOT recipients. We aimed to determine whether weighted genetic risk scores (w-GRS) integrating genetic polymorphisms from GWAS studies (SNP group#1 and SNP group#2) and from Candidate Gene studies (SNP group#3) influence BMI in SOT populations and if they predict ≥10% weight gain (WG) one year after transplantation. To do so, two samples (nA = 995, nB = 156) were obtained from naturalistic studies and three w-GRS were constructed and tested for association with BMI over time. Prediction of 10% WG at one year after transplantation was assessed with models containing genetic and clinical factors. Results w-GRS were associated with BMI in sample A and B combined (BMI increased by 0.14 and 0.11 units per additional risk allele in SNP group#1 and #2, respectively, p-values<0.008). w-GRS of SNP group#3 showed an effect of 0.01 kg/m2 per additional risk allele when combining sample A and B (p-value 0.04). Models with genetic factors performed better than models without in predicting 10% WG at one year after transplantation. Conclusions This is the first study in SOT evaluating extensively the association of w-GRS with BMI and the influence of clinical and genetic factors on 10% of WG one year after transplantation, showing the importance of integrating genetic factors in the final model. Genetics of obesity among SOT recipients remains an important issue and can contribute to treatment personalization and prediction of WG after transplantation. PMID:27788139

Weighted Genetic Risk Scores and Prediction of Weight Gain in Solid Organ Transplant Populations.

PubMed

Saigi-Morgui, Núria; Quteineh, Lina; Bochud, Pierre-Yves; Crettol, Severine; Kutalik, Zoltán; Wojtowicz, Agnieszka; Bibert, Stéphanie; Beckmann, Sonja; Mueller, Nicolas J; Binet, Isabelle; van Delden, Christian; Steiger, Jürg; Mohacsi, Paul; Stirnimann, Guido; Soccal, Paola M; Pascual, Manuel; Eap, Chin B

2016-01-01

Polygenic obesity in Solid Organ Transplant (SOT) populations is considered a risk factor for the development of metabolic abnormalities and graft survival. Few studies to date have studied the genetics of weight gain in SOT recipients. We aimed to determine whether weighted genetic risk scores (w-GRS) integrating genetic polymorphisms from GWAS studies (SNP group#1 and SNP group#2) and from Candidate Gene studies (SNP group#3) influence BMI in SOT populations and if they predict ≥10% weight gain (WG) one year after transplantation. To do so, two samples (nA = 995, nB = 156) were obtained from naturalistic studies and three w-GRS were constructed and tested for association with BMI over time. Prediction of 10% WG at one year after transplantation was assessed with models containing genetic and clinical factors. w-GRS were associated with BMI in sample A and B combined (BMI increased by 0.14 and 0.11 units per additional risk allele in SNP group#1 and #2, respectively, p-values<0.008). w-GRS of SNP group#3 showed an effect of 0.01 kg/m2 per additional risk allele when combining sample A and B (p-value 0.04). Models with genetic factors performed better than models without in predicting 10% WG at one year after transplantation. This is the first study in SOT evaluating extensively the association of w-GRS with BMI and the influence of clinical and genetic factors on 10% of WG one year after transplantation, showing the importance of integrating genetic factors in the final model. Genetics of obesity among SOT recipients remains an important issue and can contribute to treatment personalization and prediction of WG after transplantation.

Retrospective study of long-term outcomes of enzyme replacement therapy in Fabry disease: Analysis of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Biegstraaten, Marieke; Hughes, Derralynn A.; Mehta, Atul; Elliott, Perry M.; Oder, Daniel; Watkinson, Oliver T.; Vaz, Frédéric M.; van Kuilenburg, André B. P.; Wanner, Christoph; Hollak, Carla E. M.

2017-01-01

Despite enzyme replacement therapy, disease progression is observed in patients with Fabry disease. Identification of factors that predict disease progression is needed to refine guidelines on initiation and cessation of enzyme replacement therapy. To study the association of potential biochemical and clinical prognostic factors with the disease course (clinical events, progression of cardiac and renal disease) we retrospectively evaluated 293 treated patients from three international centers of excellence. As expected, age, sex and phenotype were important predictors of event rate. Clinical events before enzyme replacement therapy, cardiac mass and eGFR at baseline predicted an increased event rate. eGFR was the most important predictor: hazard ratios increased from 2 at eGFR <90 ml/min/1.73m2 to 4 at eGFR <30, compared to patients with an eGFR >90. In addition, men with classical disease and a baseline eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2 had a faster yearly decline (-2.0 ml/min/1.73m2) than those with a baseline eGFR of >60. Proteinuria was a further independent risk factor for decline in eGFR. Increased cardiac mass at baseline was associated with the most robust decrease in cardiac mass during treatment, while presence of cardiac fibrosis predicted a stronger increase in cardiac mass (3.36 gram/m2/year). Of other cardiovascular risk factors, hypertension significantly predicted the risk for clinical events. In conclusion, besides increasing age, male sex and classical phenotype, faster disease progression while on enzyme replacement therapy is predicted by renal function, proteinuria and to a lesser extent cardiac fibrosis and hypertension. PMID:28763515

Transdiagnostic assessment of repetitive negative thinking and responses to positive affect: Structure and predictive utility for depression, anxiety, and mania symptoms.

PubMed

McEvoy, Peter M; Hyett, Matthew P; Ehring, Thomas; Johnson, Sheri L; Samtani, Suraj; Anderson, Rebecca; Moulds, Michelle L

2018-05-01

Repetitive negative thinking (RNT) is a cognitive process that is repetitive, passive, relatively uncontrollable, and focused on negative content, and is elevated in emotional disorders including depression and anxiety disorders. Repetitive positive thinking is associated with bipolar disorder symptoms. The unique contributions of positive versus negative repetitive thinking to emotional symptoms are unknown. The first aim of this study was to use confirmatory factor analyses to evaluate the psychometrics of two transdiagnostic measures of RNT, the Repetitive Thinking Questionnaire (RTQ-10) and Perseverative Thinking Questionnaire (PTQ), and a measure of repetitive positive thinking, the Responses to Positive Affect (RPA) Questionnaire. The second aim was to determine incremental predictive utility of these measures. All measures were administered to a sample of 2088 undergraduate students from the Netherlands (n = 992), Australia (n = 698), and America (n = 398). Unidimensional, bifactor, and three-factor models were supported for the RTQ-10, PTQ, and RPA, respectively. A common factor measured by all PTQ items explained most variance in PTQ scores suggesting that this measure is essentially unidimensional. The RNT factor of the RTQ-10 demonstrated the strongest predictive utility, although the PTQ was also uniquely although weakly associated with anxiety, depression, and mania symptoms. The RPA dampening factor uniquely predicted anxiety and depression symptoms, suggesting that this scale is a separable process to RNT as measured by the RTQ-10 and PTQ. Findings were cross-sectional and need to be replicated in clinical samples. Transdiagnostic measures of RNT are essentially unidimensional, whereas RPA is multidimensional. RNT and RPA have unique predictive utility. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model to predict the risk of lethal nasopharyngeal necrosis after re-irradiation with intensity-modulated radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Yu, Ya-Hui; Xia, Wei-Xiong; Shi, Jun-Li; Ma, Wen-Juan; Li, Yong; Ye, Yan-Fang; Liang, Hu; Ke, Liang-Ru; Lv, Xing; Yang, Jing; Xiang, Yan-Qun; Guo, Xiang

2016-06-29

For patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who undergo re-irradiation with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), lethal nasopharyngeal necrosis (LNN) is a severe late adverse event. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for LNN and develop a model to predict LNN after radical re-irradiation with IMRT in patients with recurrent NPC. Patients who underwent radical re-irradiation with IMRT for locally recurrent NPC between March 2001 and December 2011 and who had no evidence of distant metastasis were included in this study. Clinical characteristics, including recurrent carcinoma conditions and dosimetric features, were evaluated as candidate risk factors for LNN. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors and construct the predictive scoring model. Among 228 patients enrolled in this study, 204 were at risk of developing LNN based on risk analysis. Of the 204 patients treated, 31 (15.2%) developed LNN. Logistic regression analysis showed that female sex (P = 0.008), necrosis before re-irradiation (P = 0.008), accumulated total prescription dose to the gross tumor volume (GTV) ≥145.5 Gy (P = 0.043), and recurrent tumor volume ≥25.38 cm(3) (P = 0.009) were independent risk factors for LNN. A model to predict LNN was then constructed that included these four independent risk factors. A model that includes sex, necrosis before re-irradiation, accumulated total prescription dose to GTV, and recurrent tumor volume can effectively predict the risk of developing LNN in NPC patients who undergo radical re-irradiation with IMRT.

Differences in Predictive Factors for Sustained Clinical Remission with Abatacept Between Younger and Elderly Patients with Biologic-naive Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the ABROAD Study.

PubMed

Sekiguchi, Masahiro; Fujii, Takao; Matsui, Kiyoshi; Murakami, Kosaku; Morita, Satoshi; Ohmura, Koichiro; Kawahito, Yutaka; Nishimoto, Norihiro; Mimori, Tsuneyo; Sano, Hajime

2016-11-01

To differentiate predictive factors for sustained clinical remission between elderly and younger patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) receiving abatacept (ABA) as an initial biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. The study involved 277 biologic-naive patients with RA with high or moderate disease activity, who were treated with intravenous ABA and evaluated for 48 weeks in 43 Japanese hospitals and rheumatology clinics (the ABatacept Research Outcomes as a First-line Biological Agent in the Real WorlD study: UMIN000004651). Predictive factors associated with sustained clinical remission defined by the 28-joint Disease Activity Score with C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) during the 24-48-week or 36-48-week periods were determined in elderly (≥ 65 yrs, n = 148) and younger patient groups (< 65 yrs, n = 129) using logistic regression analysis. Clinical remission was achieved at 24 and 48 weeks in 35.1% and 36.5% of patients in the elderly group and 34.9% and 43.4% in the younger group, respectively. In elderly patients, anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) positivity and a lower DAS28-CRP score were significantly associated with sustained clinical remission; however, a lower Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) score was not related to sustained clinical remission. In younger patients, lower DAS28-CRP and HAQ-DI scores were predictive factors for sustained clinical remission, whereas ACPA positivity was not a useful predictive factor for sustained clinical remission. Although the effectiveness of ABA in biologic-naive patients with RA was equally recognized in elderly and younger patients, the baseline clinical characteristics associated with sustained clinical remission were substantially different.

Identification of aggregates for Tennessee bituminous surface courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauter, Heather Jean

Tennessee road construction is a major venue for federal and state spending. Tax dollars each year go to the maintenance and construction of roads. One aspect of highway construction that affects the public is the safety of its state roads. There are many factors that affect the safety of a given road. One factor that was focused on in this research was the polish resistance capabilities of aggregates. Several pre-evaluation methods have been used in the laboratory to predict what will happen in a field situation. A new pre-evaluation method was invented that utilized AASHTO T 304 procedure upscaled to accommodate surface bituminous aggregates. This new method, called the Tennessee Terminal Textural Condition Method (T3CM), was approved by Tennessee Department of Transportation to be used as a pre-evaluation method on bituminous surface courses. It was proven to be operator insensitive, repeatable, and an accurate indication of particle shape and texture. Further research was needed to correlate pre-evaluation methods to the current field method, ASTM E 274-85 Locked Wheel Skid Trailer. In this research, twenty-five in-place bituminous projects and eight source evaluations were investigated. The information gathered would further validate the T3CM and find the pre-evaluation method that best predicted the field method. In addition, new sources of aggregates for bituminous surface courses were revealed. The results of this research have shown T3CM to be highly repeatable with an overall coefficient of variation of 0.26% for an eight sample repeatability test. It was the best correlated pre-evaluation method with the locked wheel skid trailer method giving an R2 value of 0.3946 and a Pearson coefficient of 0.710. Being able to predict field performance of aggregates prior to construction is a powerful tool capable of saving time, money, labor, and possibly lives.

Characterization of Residual Stress Effects on Fatigue Crack Growth of a Friction Stir Welded Aluminum Alloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, John A.; Smith, Stephen W.; Seshadri, Banavara R.; James, Mark A.; Brazill, Richard L.; Schultz, Robert W.; Donald, J. Keith; Blair, Amy

2015-01-01

An on-line compliance-based method to account for residual stress effects in stress-intensity factor and fatigue crack growth property determinations has been evaluated. Residual stress intensity factor results determined from specimens containing friction stir weld induced residual stresses are presented, and the on-line method results were found to be in excellent agreement with residual stress-intensity factor data obtained using the cut compliance method. Variable stress-intensity factor tests were designed to demonstrate that a simple superposition model, summing the applied stress-intensity factor with the residual stress-intensity factor, can be used to determine the total crack-tip stress-intensity factor. Finite element, VCCT (virtual crack closure technique), and J-integral analysis methods have been used to characterize weld-induced residual stress using thermal expansion/contraction in the form of an equivalent delta T (change in local temperature during welding) to simulate the welding process. This equivalent delta T was established and applied to analyze different specimen configurations to predict residual stress distributions and associated residual stress-intensity factor values. The predictions were found to agree well with experimental results obtained using the crack- and cut-compliance methods.

[EVALUATION OF ARTERIAL STIFFNESS AND POSSIBILITY TO PREDICT CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS IN PATIENTS WITH ESSENTIAL HYPERTENSION BASED ON AN OUTPATIENT FACILITY].

PubMed

Polipanov, A G; Mamasaidov, Zh A; Geleskhanova, Yu N; Cheskidova, N B; Romanova, T A; Dzhumagulova, A S

2016-01-01

To estimate the possibility of predicting the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis from arterial stiffness characteristics and augmentation index (AIx) in patients with essential hypertension (EH) obtained under outpatient conditions. The general clinical examination of 15 patients aged 30-70 yr with EH was supplemented by measuring blood glucose and creatinine levels, the lipid status (LWLP, HDLP, TG), duplex scanning of carotid arteries, and evaluation of arterial stiffness by pulsed wave contour analysis. AIx and age were independent risk factors of coronary atherosclerosis in patients with EH and severity of its manifestations. AIx values over 25% were with high specificity (over 85%) associated with atherosclerotic lesions.

Persistent reflux symptoms cause anxiety, depression, and mental health and sleep disorders in gastroesophageal reflux disease patients

PubMed Central

Kimura, Yoshihide; Kamiya, Takeshi; Senoo, Kyouji; Tsuchida, Kenji; Hirano, Atsuyuki; Kojima, Hisayo; Yamashita, Hiroaki; Yamakawa, Yoshihiro; Nishigaki, Nobuhiro; Ozeki, Tomonori; Endo, Masatsugu; Nakanishi, Kazuhisa; Sando, Motoki; Inagaki, Yusuke; Shikano, Michiko; Mizoshita, Tsutomu; Kubota, Eiji; Tanida, Satoshi; Kataoka, Hiromi; Katsumi, Kohei; Joh, Takashi

2016-01-01

Some patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease experience persistent reflux symptoms despite proton pump inhibitor therapy. These symptoms reduce their health-related quality of life. Our aims were to evaluate the relationship between proton pump inhibitor efficacy and health-related quality of life and to evaluate predictive factors affecting treatment response in Japanese patients. Using the gastroesophageal reflux disease questionnaire, 145 gastroesophageal reflux disease patients undergoing proton pump inhibitor therapy were evaluated and classified as responders or partial-responders. Their health-related quality of life was then evaluated using the 8-item Short Form Health Survey, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaires. Sixty-nine patients (47.6%) were partial responders. These patients had significantly lower scores than responders in 5/8 subscales and in the mental health component summary of the 8-item Short Form Health Survey. Partial responders had significantly higher Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores, including anxiety and depression scores, than those of responders. Non-erosive reflux disease and double proton pump inhibitor doses were predictive factors of partial responders. Persistent reflux symptoms, despite proton pump inhibitor therapy, caused mental health disorders, sleep disorders, and psychological distress in Japanese gastroesophageal reflux disease patients. PMID:27499583

Persistent reflux symptoms cause anxiety, depression, and mental health and sleep disorders in gastroesophageal reflux disease patients.

PubMed

Kimura, Yoshihide; Kamiya, Takeshi; Senoo, Kyouji; Tsuchida, Kenji; Hirano, Atsuyuki; Kojima, Hisayo; Yamashita, Hiroaki; Yamakawa, Yoshihiro; Nishigaki, Nobuhiro; Ozeki, Tomonori; Endo, Masatsugu; Nakanishi, Kazuhisa; Sando, Motoki; Inagaki, Yusuke; Shikano, Michiko; Mizoshita, Tsutomu; Kubota, Eiji; Tanida, Satoshi; Kataoka, Hiromi; Katsumi, Kohei; Joh, Takashi

2016-07-01

Some patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease experience persistent reflux symptoms despite proton pump inhibitor therapy. These symptoms reduce their health-related quality of life. Our aims were to evaluate the relationship between proton pump inhibitor efficacy and health-related quality of life and to evaluate predictive factors affecting treatment response in Japanese patients. Using the gastroesophageal reflux disease questionnaire, 145 gastroesophageal reflux disease patients undergoing proton pump inhibitor therapy were evaluated and classified as responders or partial-responders. Their health-related quality of life was then evaluated using the 8-item Short Form Health Survey, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale questionnaires. Sixty-nine patients (47.6%) were partial responders. These patients had significantly lower scores than responders in 5/8 subscales and in the mental health component summary of the 8-item Short Form Health Survey. Partial responders had significantly higher Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores, including anxiety and depression scores, than those of responders. Non-erosive reflux disease and double proton pump inhibitor doses were predictive factors of partial responders. Persistent reflux symptoms, despite proton pump inhibitor therapy, caused mental health disorders, sleep disorders, and psychological distress in Japanese gastroesophageal reflux disease patients.

Predicting research use in nursing organizations: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Estabrooks, Carole A; Midodzi, William K; Cummings, Greta G; Wallin, Lars

2007-01-01

No empirical literature was found that explained how organizational context (operationalized as a composite of leadership, culture, and evaluation) influences research utilization. Similarly, no work was found on the interaction of individuals and contextual factors, or the relative importance or contribution of forces at different organizational levels to either such proposed interactions or, ultimately, to research utilization. To determine independent factors that predict research utilization among nurses, taking into account influences at individual nurse, specialty, and hospital levels. Cross-sectional survey data for 4,421 registered nurses in Alberta, Canada were used in a series of multilevel (three levels) modeling analyses to predict research utilization. A multilevel model was developed in MLwiN version 2.0 and used to: (a) estimate simultaneous effects of several predictors and (b) quantify the amount of explained variance in research utilization that could be apportioned to individual, specialty, and hospital levels. There was significant variation in research utilization (p <.05). Factors (remaining in the final model at statistically significant levels) found to predict more research utilization at the three levels of analysis were as follows. At the individual nurse level (Level 1): time spent on the Internet and lower levels of emotional exhaustion. At the specialty level (Level 2): facilitation, nurse-to-nurse collaboration, a higher context (i.e., of nursing culture, leadership, and evaluation), and perceived ability to control policy. At the hospital level (Level 3): only hospital size was significant in the final model. The total variance in research utilization was 1.04, and the intraclass correlations (the percent contribution by contextual factors) were 4% (variance = 0.04, p <.01) at the hospital level and 8% (variance = 0.09, p <.05) at the specialty level. The contribution attributable to individual factors alone was 87% (variance = 0.91, p <.01). Variation in research utilization was explained mainly by differences in individual characteristics, with specialty- and organizational-level factors contributing relatively little by comparison. Among hospital-level factors, hospital size was the only significant determinant of research utilization. Although organizational determinants explained less variance in the model, they were still statistically significant when analyzed alone. These findings suggest that investigations into mechanisms that influence research utilization must address influences at multiple levels of the organization. Such investigations will require careful attention to both methodological and interpretative challenges present when dealing with multiple units of analysis.

Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review

PubMed Central

Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

2016-01-01

Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1th and the 5th day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients could be greatly improved by using clinically reliable tools to predict early graft function. PMID:27468188

Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review.

PubMed

Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

2016-07-14

Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1(th) and the 5(th) day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients could be greatly improved by using clinically reliable tools to predict early graft function.

Modelling the effect of temperature, water activity and pH on the growth of Serpula lacrymans.

PubMed

Maurice, S; Coroller, L; Debaets, S; Vasseur, V; Le Floch, G; Barbier, G

2011-12-01

To predict the risk factors for building infestation by Serpula lacrymans, which is one of the most destructive fungi causing timber decay in buildings. The growth rate was assessed on malt extract agar media at temperatures between 1.5 and 45°C, at water activity (a(w)) over the range of 0.800-0.993 and at pH ranges from 1.5 to 11.0. The radial growth rate (μ) and the lag phase (λ) were estimated from the radial growth kinetics via the plots radius vs time. These parameters were then modelled as a function of the environmental factors tested. Models derived from the cardinal model (CM) were used to fit the experimental data and allowed an estimation of the optimal and limit values for fungal growth. Optimal growth rate occurred at 20°C, at high a(w) level (0.993) and at a pH range between 4.0 and 6.0. The strain effect on the temperature parameters was further evaluated using 14 strains of S. lacrymans. The robustness of the temperature model was validated on data sets measured in two different wood-based media (Quercus robur L. and Picea abies). The two-step procedure of exponential model with latency followed by the CM with inflection gives reliable predictions for the growth conditions of a filamentous fungus in our study. The procedure was validated for the study of abiotic factors on the growth rate of S. lacrymans. This work describes the usefulness of evaluating the effect of physico-chemical factors on fungal growth in predictive building mycology. Consequently, the developed mathematical models for predicting fungal growth on a macroscopic scale can be used as a tool for risk assessment of timber decay in buildings. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2011 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Geometric morphometric evaluation of cervical vertebrae shape and its relationship to skeletal maturation.

PubMed

Chatzigianni, Athina; Halazonetis, Demetrios J

2009-10-01

Cervical vertebrae shape has been proposed as a diagnostic factor for assessing skeletal maturation in orthodontic patients. However, evaluation of vertebral shape is mainly based on qualitative criteria. Comprehensive quantitative measurements of shape and assessments of its predictive power have not been reported. Our aims were to measure vertebral shape by using the tools of geometric morphometrics and to evaluate the correlation and predictive power of vertebral shape on skeletal maturation. Pretreatment lateral cephalograms and corresponding hand-wrist radiographs of 98 patients (40 boys, 58 girls; ages, 8.1-17.7 years) were used. Skeletal age was estimated from the hand-wrist radiographs. The first 4 vertebrae were traced, and 187 landmarks (34 fixed and 153 sliding semilandmarks) were used. Sliding semilandmarks were adjusted to minimize bending energy against the average of the sample. Principal components analysis in shape and form spaces was used for evaluating shape patterns. Shape measures, alone and combined with centroid size and age, were assessed as predictors of skeletal maturation. Shape alone could not predict skeletal maturation better than chronologic age. The best prediction was achieved with the combination of form space principal components and age, giving 90% prediction intervals of approximately 200 maturation units in the girls and 300 units in the boys. Similar predictive power could be obtained by using centroid size and age. Vertebrae C2, C3, and C4 gave similar results when examined individually or combined. C1 showed lower correlations, signifying lower integration with hand-wrist maturation. Vertebral shape is strongly correlated to skeletal age but does not offer better predictive value than chronologic age.

Factors Predictive of Healing in Large Rotator Cuff Tears: Is It Possible to Predict Retear Preoperatively?

PubMed

Jeong, Ho Yeon; Kim, Hwan Jin; Jeon, Yoon Sang; Rhee, Yong Girl

2018-03-01

Many studies have identified risk factors that cause retear after rotator cuff repair. However, it is still questionable whether retears can be predicted preoperatively. To determine the risk factors related to retear after arthroscopic rotator cuff repair and to evaluate whether it is possible to predict the occurrence of retear preoperatively. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. This study enrolled 112 patients who underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff repair with single-row technique for a large-sized tear, defined as a tear with a mediolateral length of 3 to 5 cm. All patients underwent routine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 9 months postoperatively to assess tendon integrity. The sample included 61 patients (54.5%) in the healed group and 51 (45.5%) in the retear group. In multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of retears were supraspinatus muscle atrophy ( P < .001) and fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus ( P = .027), which could be preoperatively measured by MRI. A significant difference was found between the two groups in sex, the acromiohumeral interval, tendon tension, and preoperative or intraoperative mediolateral tear length and musculotendinous junction position in univariate analysis. However, these variables were not independent predictors in multivariate analysis. The cutoff values of occupation ratio of supraspinatus and fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus were 43% and grade 2, respectively. The occupation ratio of supraspinatus <43% and grade ≥2 fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus were the strongest predictors of retear, with an area under the curve of 0.908, sensitivity of 98.0%, and specificity of 83.6% (accuracy = 90.2%). In patients with large rotator cuff tears, it was possible to predict the retear before rotator cuff repair regardless of intraoperative factors. The retear could be predicted most effectively when the occupation ratio of supraspinatus was <43% or the fatty infiltration of infraspinatus was grade ≥2. Predicting retear preoperatively may help surgeons determine proper treatment and predict the postoperative prognosis.

Infiltration of diametrically polarized macrophages predicts overall survival of patients with gastric cancer after surgical resection.

PubMed

Zhang, Heng; Wang, Xuefei; Shen, Zhenbin; Xu, Jiejie; Qin, Jing; Sun, Yihong

2015-10-01

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs), the most predominant tumor-infiltrating immune cells, are emerging prognostic factors and therapeutic targets for personalized therapy against malignant neoplasms. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of diametrically polarized TAMs in gastric cancer and generate a predictive nomogram to refine a risk stratification system. We evaluated polarized functional status of infiltrated TAMs by immunohistochemical staining of CD68, CD11c, and CD206 in 180 consecutive gastric cancer patients from Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai, China. Prognostic values were assessed in these patients. We created a predictive nomogram by integrating polarized TAMs with the TNM staging system for overall survival of gastric cancer patients. CD68(+) TAMs display polarized programs comprising CD11c(+) proinflammatory macrophages (M1) and CD206(+) immunosuppressive macrophages (M2) that configure versatile infiltration files in gastric cancer. CD11c(+) TAMs negatively correlated with lymph node metastasis (p = 0.012), whereas CD206(+) TAMs correlated with the Lauren classification (p = 0.031). No prognostic difference was observed for overall survival for CD68 density (high vs low, p = 0.1031), whereas high versus low CD11c density (p < 0.0001) and low vs high CD206 density (p = 0.0105) indicate better overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified CD11c and CD206 as independent prognostic factors (p < 0.001 and p = 0.030, respectively), which could be integrated with the TNM staging system to generate a predictive nomogram for patient outcomes. Infiltration of polarized TAMs, a novel identified independent prognostic factor, could be combined with the TNM stage to refine a risk stratification system and better stratify patients with different prognosis. Tipping TAMs to an antitumoral phenotype might be a promising therapeutic target for postoperative treatment.

[Psychosocial factors predicting postnatal anxiety symptoms and their relation to symptoms of postpartum depression].

PubMed

Navarrete, Laura Elena; Lara-Cantú, María Asunción; Navarro, Claudia; Gómez, María Eugenia; Morales, Francisco

2012-01-01

To study perinatal anxiety symptoms in a sample of Mexican mothers. A) To evaluate the effect of certain psychosocial factors during pregnancy on anxiety symptoms at two postpartum time intervals; and B) to determine whether this symptomatology is related to symptoms of postnatal depression. In this secondary data analysis, 156 women were interviewed during pregnancy (T1): 149 were interviewed again at 6 weeks postpartum (T2) and 156 at 4-6 months postpartum (T3). Subjects were selected from women seeking prenatal attention at three health centers in Mexico City who presented with depressive symptomatology and/or previous history of depression. Two models were subjected to multivariate regression analysis to determine the influence of psychosocial factors in pregnancy (age, education, partner status, social support [APGAR], stress events, self-esteem [Coopersmith], depressive symptomatology [BDI-II], and anxiety [SCL-90]) on anxiety symptomatology (SCL-90) in T2 and T3. Two additional linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of prenatal anxiety symptomatology (SCL-90) on postpartum depression symptoms (BDI-II), one for each postnatal period (T2, T3). The variables that predicted postpartum anxiety symptomatology in T2 were anxiety symptoms and lack of social support; in T3 they were anxiety symptoms, lack of a partner, and lack of social support. Prenatal anxiety symptoms predicted postpartum depressive symptomatology at both postpartum intervals (T2, T3). Untreated prenatal anxiety symptomatology is predictive of symptoms of anxiety and depression in the postpartum period, suggesting the need for timely detection and treatment. Women lacking social support or partners are a population particularly vulnerable to anxiety symptoms, and merit interventions that address these issues.

Prevalence and predictive factors of post-traumatic hypopituitarism.

PubMed

Klose, M; Juul, A; Poulsgaard, L; Kosteljanetz, M; Brennum, J; Feldt-Rasmussen, U

2007-08-01

To estimate the prevalence and predictive factors of hypopituitarism following traumatic brain injury (TBI). A cross-sectional cohort study. One hundred and four hospitalized TBI patients (26F/78M), median age 41 (range 18-64) years, body mass index (BMI) 25 (17-39) kg/m(2); severity: mild [Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score 13-15) n = 44, moderate (GCS 9-12) n = 20, severe (GCS < 9) n = 40]. Patients were evaluated 13 (10-27) months post-injury, with measurement of baseline (0800-1000 h) and post-stimulatory hormonal levels during an insulin tolerance test (ITT) (86%) or, if contraindicated, an arginine(arg)-GHRH test + Synacthen test (14%). Insufficiencies were confirmed by retesting. Hypopituitarism was found in 16 (15%) patients, affecting one axis in 10, two axes in four and more than two axes in two patients. The GH axis was most frequently affected (15%), followed by secondary hypoadrenalism (5%), hypogonadism (2%), hypothyroidism (2%) and diabetes insipidus (2%). The risk of pituitary insufficiency was increased in patients with severe TBI as opposed to mild TBI [odds ratio (OR) 10.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-48.4, P = 0.004], and in those patients with increased intracerebral pressure [OR 6.5, 95% CI 1.0-42.2, P = 0.03]. Patients with only one affected axis were all GH deficient; 60% (n = 6) of these were overweight or obese. The prevalence of hypopituitarism was estimated at 16%. Although high, this value was lower than previously reported, and may still be overestimated because of well-known confounding factors, such as obesity. Indicators of increased TBI severity were predictive of hypopituitarism, with a high negative predictive value. Neuroendocrine evaluation should therefore be considered in patients with severe TBI, and in particular in those with increased intracerebral pressure (ICP).

Hemorrhage control for laparoscopic hepatectomy: technical details and predictive factors for intraoperative blood loss.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Yoshikuni; Nomi, Takeo; Fuks, David; Mal, Frederic; Kokudo, Norihiro; Gayet, Brice

2016-06-01

Controlling bleeding during laparoscopic hepatectomy (LH) is technically demanding, but reportedly associated with less estimated blood loss (EBL) than open surgery. The present study aimed to describe and evaluate hemorrhage control techniques during LH and identify predictors of high intraoperative EBL. The data of 438 consecutive patients undergoing LH between 1995 and 2012 were reviewed. Bleeding control was facilitated by the proper use of hemostatic devices and surgical maneuvers unique to LH and by preserving intra-abdominal pressure. EBL was evaluated among three groups of 146 patients in each group: 1995-2006 (group A), 2006-2009 (group B), and 2009-2012 (group C). We also sought factors that predicted EBL ≥800 mL. Mean EBL decreased overtime from groups A to C: group A, 378 ± 619 mL; group B, 293 ± 391 mL; groups C, 257 ± 366 mL; P = 0.127. Transfusion rate was 6.7 % in group A, 5.5 % in group B, and 4.8 % in group C (P = 0.743). Hypertension (odds ratio (OR) 2.82, 95 % confidence interval CI 1.37-5.78; P = 0.006), preoperative chemotherapy (OR 2.55, 95 % CI 1.26-5.31; P = 0.009), resection of posterosuperior segments (OR 3.73, 95 % CI 1.33-12.17; P = 0.012), and major hepatectomy (OR 4.21, 95 % CI 1.64-13.02; P < 0.001) independently predicted high EBL. Improvements in bleeding control techniques over time have reduced EBL during LH. The use of these techniques and an understanding of the predictive factors for high EBL will help surgeons improve outcomes after LH.

Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Severe Neutropenia Associated With Docetaxel-Based Chemotherapy in Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Hirasawa, Yosuke; Nakashima, Jun; Sugihara, Toru; Takizawa, Issei; Gondo, Tatsuo; Nakagami, Yoshihiro; Horiguchi, Yutaka; Ohno, Yoshio; Namiki, Kazunori; Ohori, Makoto; Tachibana, Masaaki

2017-02-01

Neutropenia is a major adverse event of docetaxel-based chemotherapy. The present study was undertaken to evaluate the incidence of neutropenia and to develop a nomogram for predicting Grade 4 neutropenia during the first cycle of docetaxel-based chemotherapy in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). This study included 112 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel-based systemic chemotherapy. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for Grade 4 neutropenia in the first cycle of chemotherapy. Sixty-two of 112 patients (55.4%) developed Grade 4 neutropenia in the first cycle of docetaxel-based chemotherapy. There were significant differences in age, baseline white blood cell count, and baseline neutrophil count between patients with non-Grade 4 neutropenia and those with Grade 4 neutropenia in univariate analyses. The serum prostate-specific antigen level, hemoglobin level, creatinine, albumin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, metastatic sites, extent of disease, and history of external beam radiotherapy to the prostate were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR], 1.08; P = .019) and baseline neutrophil counts (OR, 0.79; P = .045) were significant independent risk factors for severe neutropenia. A nomogram and a calibration plot on the basis of these results were developed from a multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the probability of Grade 4 neutropenia. Age and baseline neutrophil counts were significant independent risk factors for Grade 4 neutropenia. The nomogram to predict it provides useful information for the management of patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyperfibrinogenemia is a poor prognostic factor in diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Niu, Jun-Ying; Tian, Tian; Zhu, Hua-Yuan; Liang, Jin-Hua; Wu, Wei; Cao, Lei; Lu, Rui-Nan; Wang, Li; Li, Jian-Yong; Xu, Wei

2018-06-02

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphomas worldwide. Previous studies indicated that hyperfibrinogenemia was a poor predictor in various tumors. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the prognostic effect of hyperfibrinogenemia in DLBCL. Data of 228 patients, who were diagnosed with DLBCL in our hospital between May 2009 and February 2016, were analyzed retrospectively. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were performed to find prognostic factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the areas under the curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of predictors. Comparison of characters between groups indicated that patients with high National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) score (4-8) and advanced stage (III-IV) were more likely to suffer from hyperfibrinogenemia. The Kaplan-Meier method revealed that patients with hyperfibrinogenemia showed inferior PFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001) than those without hyperfibrinogenemia. Multivariate analysis showed that hyperfibrinogenemia was an independent prognostic factor associated with poor outcomes (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.15-3.16 for PFS, P = 0.013; HR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.46-4.79 for OS, P = 0.001). We combined hyperfibrinogenemia and NCCN-IPI to build a new prognostic index (NPI). The NPI was demonstrated to have a superior predictive effect on prognosis (P = 0.0194 for PFS, P = 0.0034 for OS). Hyperfibrinogenemia was demonstrated to be able to predict poor outcome in DLBCL, especially for patients with advanced stage and high NCCN-IPI score. Adding hyperfibrinogenemia to NCCN-IPI could significantly improve the predictive effect of NCCN-IPI.

The Predictive Value of Indocyanine Green Clearance in Future Liver Remnant for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Following Hepatectomy with Extrahepatic Bile Duct Resection.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

2016-06-01

Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most common complications following major hepatectomy. The preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) function is critical to predict the incidence of PHLF. To determine the efficacy of the plasma clearance rate of indocyanine green clearance of FLR (ICGK-F) in predicting PHLF in cases of highly invasive hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. Five hundred and eighty-five patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection, from 2002 to 2014 in a single institution, were evaluated. Among them, 192 patients (33 %) had PHLF. The predictive value of ICGK-F for PHLF was determined and compared with other risk factors for PHLF. The incidence of PHLF was inversely proportional to the level of ICGK-F. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, ICGK-F, combined pancreatoduodenectomy, the operation time, and blood loss were identified as independent risk factors of PHLF. The risk of PHLF increased according to the decrement of ICGK-F (the odds ratio of ICGK-F for each decrement of 0.01 was 1.22; 95 % confidence interval 1.12-1.33; P < 0.001). Low ICGK-F was also identified as an independent risk factor predicting the postoperative mortality. ICGK-F is useful in predicting the PHLF and mortality in patients undergoing major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. This criterion may be useful for highly invasive hepatectomy, such as that with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

A model combining age, equivalent uniform dose and IL-8 may predict radiation esophagitis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Shulian; Campbell, Jeff; Stenmark, Matthew H; Stanton, Paul; Zhao, Jing; Matuszak, Martha M; Ten Haken, Randall K; Kong, Feng-Ming

2018-03-01

To study whether cytokine markers may improve predictive accuracy of radiation esophagitis (RE) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. A total of 129 patients with stage I-III NSCLC treated with radiotherapy (RT) from prospective studies were included. Thirty inflammatory cytokines were measured in platelet-poor plasma samples. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors of RE. Stepwise Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio test were used to assess model predictions. Forty-nine of 129 patients (38.0%) developed grade ≥2 RE. Univariate analysis showed that age, stage, concurrent chemotherapy, and eight dosimetric parameters were significantly associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.05). IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-13, IL-15, IL-1α, TGFα and eotaxin were also associated with grade ≥2 RE (p < 0.1). Age, esophagus generalized equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and baseline IL-8 were independently associated grade ≥2 RE. The combination of these three factors had significantly higher predictive power than any single factor alone. Addition of IL-8 to toxicity model significantly improves RE predictive accuracy (p = 0.019). Combining baseline level of IL-8, age and esophagus EUD may predict RE more accurately. Refinement of this model with larger sample sizes and validation from multicenter database are warranted. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modified physiologically equivalent temperature—basics and applications for western European climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yung-Chang; Matzarakis, Andreas

2018-05-01

A new thermal index, the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) has been developed for universal application in different climate zones. The mPET has been improved against the weaknesses of the original physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) by enhancing evaluation of the humidity and clothing variability. The principles of mPET and differences between original PET and mPET are introduced and discussed in this study. Furthermore, this study has also evidenced the usability of mPET with climatic data in Freiburg, which is located in Western Europe. Comparisons of PET, mPET, and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) have shown that mPET gives a more realistic estimation of human thermal sensation than the other two thermal indices (PET, UTCI) for the thermal conditions in Freiburg. Additionally, a comparison of physiological parameters between mPET model and PET model (Munich Energy Balance Model for Individual, namely MEMI) is proposed. The core temperatures and skin temperatures of PET model vary more violently to a low temperature during cold stress than the mPET model. It can be regarded as that the mPET model gives a more realistic core temperature and mean skin temperature than the PET model. Statistical regression analysis of mPET based on the air temperature, mean radiant temperature, vapor pressure, and wind speed has been carried out. The R square (0.995) has shown a well co-relationship between human biometeorological factors and mPET. The regression coefficient of each factor represents the influence of the each factor on changing mPET (i.e., ±1 °C of T a = ± 0.54 °C of mPET). The first-order regression has been considered predicting a more realistic estimation of mPET at Freiburg during 2003 than the other higher order regression model, because the predicted mPET from the first-order regression has less difference from mPET calculated from measurement data. Statistic tests recognize that mPET can effectively evaluate the influences of all human biometeorological factors on thermal environments. Moreover, a first-order regression function can also predict the thermal evaluations of the mPET by using human biometeorological factors in Freiburg.

Neonatal Candidiasis: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Clinical Judgment

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel K.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Gantz, Marie G.; Walsh, Michele C.; Sanchez, Pablo J.; Das, Abhik; Shankaran, Seetha; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Auten, Kathy J.; Miller, Nancy A.; Walsh, Thomas J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Kennedy, Kathleen A.; Finer, Neil N.; Duara, Shahnaz; Schibler, Kurt; Chapman, Rachel L.; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Frantz, Ivan D.; Phelps, Dale L.; Poindexter, Brenda B.; Bell, Edward F.; O’Shea, T. Michael; Watterberg, Kristi L.; Goldberg, Ronald N.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Invasive candidiasis is a leading cause of infection-related morbidity and mortality in extremely low-birth-weight (<1000 g) infants. We quantify risk factors predicting infection in high-risk premature infants and compare clinical judgment with a prediction model of invasive candidiasis. METHODS The study involved a prospective observational cohort of infants <1000 g birth weight at 19 centers of the NICHD Neonatal Research Network. At each sepsis evaluation, clinical information was recorded, cultures obtained, and clinicians prospectively recorded their estimate of the probability of invasive candidiasis. Two models were generated with invasive candidiasis as their outcome: 1) potentially modifiable risk factors and 2) a clinical model at time of blood culture to predict candidiasis. RESULTS Invasive candidiasis occurred in 137/1515 (9.0%) infants and was documented by positive culture from ≥ 1 of these sources: blood (n=96), cerebrospinal fluid (n=9), urine obtained by catheterization (n=52), or other sterile body fluid (n=10). Mortality was not different from infants who had positive blood culture compared to those with isolated positive urine culture. Incidence varied from 2–28% at the 13 centers enrolling ≥ 50 infants. Potentially modifiable risk factors (model 1) included central catheter, broad-spectrum antibiotics (e.g., third-generation cephalosporins), intravenous lipid emulsion, endotracheal tube, and antenatal antibiotics. The clinical prediction model (model 2) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79, and was superior to clinician judgment (0.70) in predicting subsequent invasive candidiasis. Performance of clinical judgment did not vary significantly with level of training. CONCLUSION Prior antibiotics, presence of a central catheter, endotracheal tube, and center were strongly associated with invasive candidiasis. Modeling was more accurate in predicting invasive candidiasis than clinical judgment. PMID:20876174

Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya.

PubMed

Rideout, Alasdair J R; Joshi, Neha P; Viergever, Karin M; Huxham, Mark; Briers, Robert A

2013-11-01

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tumor necrosis factor-308 polymorphism increases the embryo implantation rate in women undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Vialard, F; El Sirkasi, M; Tronchon, V; Boudjenah, R; Molina-Gomes, D; Bergere, M; Mauduit, C; Wainer, R; Selva, J; Benahmed, M

2013-10-01

Do TNF-308 and -238 polymorphisms impact the embryo implantation rate after in vitro fertilization (IVF) in women without female infertility factor? The presence of the TNF-308A allele is associated with high implantation and multiple pregnancy rates in women without known infertility factors after ovarian hyperstimulation with exogenous FSH. Multiple pregnancies are frequent after the use of Assisted Reproductive Technologies. Single embryo transfer (SET) has been proposed as a simple way to prevent these risks. However, the extension of SET indications to patients not selected based on specific criteria is controversial because of reduced pregnancy rates. To date, the predictive value of the parameters used for SET (age, gynecological history of the patient and uterine characteristics) allows a pregnancy rate of ~30%. The potential predictive value of TNF polymorphisms (-308, rs1800629 and -238, rs361525) on implantation rate was evaluated in 424 women requiring IVF due to male fertility factors. This cohort retrospective study was conducted over 4 years in University-affiliated hospitals. The entire patient group included 424 women undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) due to male fertility factors without the contribution of any female factor. From among this group, a selected patient group included 120 women with a normal karyotype, age under 38 years, serum follicle-stimulating hormone (Day-3 FSH) levels below 10 IU/l, a long agonist desensitization protocol associated with recombinant FSH treatment and a Caucasian background. The TNF-238 polymorphism was not associated with implantation rate. In contrast, the presence of the TNF-308A allele was associated with increased Day 3-E2 levels as well as higher implantation and multiple pregnancy rates after fresh embryo transfer in women from the entire and selected patient groups. Moreover, in the selected patient group, the presence of the TNF-308A allele was also associated with a decrease in the miscarriage rate. The benefit of the TNF-308A allele in predicting implantation rates was not observed after the use of frozen embryos. Future studies are needed to evaluate whether the TNF-308A allele might also be a biomarker in women with infertility factors. The TNF-308A allele may represent a good candidate for a potential predictive, non-invasive biomarker in the SET strategy. However, its impact should be evaluated in prospective studies. This study was conducted with financial support from the French Institute for Health and Medical Research (INSERM), Organon France for a FARO (Fond d'Aide à la Recherche Organon) fellowship (to V.T.) and CHU Nice PHRC (PHRC 09-279).There are no competing interests.

Visual field defects may not affect safe driving.

PubMed

Dow, Jamie

2011-10-01

In Quebec a driver whose acquired visual field defect renders them ineligible for a driver's permit renewal may request an exemption from the visual field standard by demonstrating safe driving despite the defect. For safety reasons it was decided to attempt to identify predictors of failure on the road test in order to avoid placing driving evaluators in potentially dangerous situations when evaluating drivers with visual field defects. During a 4-month period in 2009 all requests for exemptions from the visual field standard were collected and analyzed. All available medical and visual field data were collated for 103 individuals, of whom 91 successfully completed the evaluation process and obtained a waiver. The collated data included age, sex, type of visual field defect, visual field characteristics, and concomitant medical problems. No single factor, or combination of factors, could predict failure of the road test. All 5 failures of the road test had cognitive problems but 6 of the successful drivers also had known cognitive problems. Thus, cognitive problems influence the risk of failure but do not predict certain failure. Most of the applicants for an exemption were able to complete the evaluation process successfully, thereby demonstrating safe driving despite their handicap. Consequently, jurisdictions that have visual field standards for their driving permit should implement procedures to evaluate drivers with visual field defects that render them unable to meet the standard but who wish to continue driving.

U.S. Civil Air Show Crashes, 1993 to 2013: Burden, Fatal Risk Factors, and Evaluation of a Risk Index for Aviation Crashes.

PubMed

Ballard, Sarah-Blythe; Osorio, Victor B

2015-01-01

This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR = 5.2, 95% CI = 1.8 to 14.5, P = .002), aerobatic flight (AOR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.6 to 8.2, P = .002), and off-airport location (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.5, P = .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI = 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.

Computational Prediction and Validation of BAHD1 as a Novel Molecule for Ulcerative Colitis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Huatuo; Wan, Xingyong; Li, Jing; Han, Lu; Bo, Xiaochen; Chen, Wenguo; Lu, Chao; Shen, Zhe; Xu, Chenfu; Chen, Lihua; Yu, Chaohui; Xu, Guoqiang

2015-07-01

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a common inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) producing intestinal inflammation and tissue damage. The precise aetiology of UC remains unknown. In this study, we applied a rank-based expression profile comparative algorithm, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), to evaluate the expression profiles of UC patients and small interfering RNA (siRNA)-perturbed cells to predict proteins that might be essential in UC from publicly available expression profiles. We used quantitative PCR (qPCR) to characterize the expression levels of those genes predicted to be the most important for UC in dextran sodium sulphate (DSS)-induced colitic mice. We found that bromo-adjacent homology domain (BAHD1), a novel heterochromatinization factor in vertebrates, was the most downregulated gene. We further validated a potential role of BAHD1 as a regulatory factor for inflammation through the TNF signalling pathway in vitro. Our findings indicate that computational approaches leveraging public gene expression data can be used to infer potential genes or proteins for diseases, and BAHD1 might act as an indispensable factor in regulating the cellular inflammatory response in UC.

Evaluation of proposed casemix criteria as a basis for costing patients in the adult general intensive care unit.

PubMed

Stevens, V G; Hibbert, C L; Edbrooke, D L

1998-10-01

This study analyses the relationship between the actual patient-related costs of care calculated for 145 patients admitted sequentially to an adult general intensive care unit and a number of factors obtained from a previously described consensus of opinion study. The factors identified in the study were suggested as potential descriptors for the casemix in an intensive care unit that could be used to predict the costs of care. Significant correlations between the costs of care and severity of illness, workload and length of stay were found but these failed to predict the costs of care with sufficient accuracy to be used in isolation to define isoresource groups in the intensive care unit. No associations between intensive care unit mortality, reason for admission and intensive and unit treatments and costs of care were found. Based on these results, it seems that casemix descriptors and isoresource groups for the intensive care unit that would allow costs to be predicted cannot be defined in terms of single factors.

Clinical and Radiographic Characteristics as Predictive Factors of Swelling and Trismus after Mandibular Third Molar Surgery: A Longitudinal Approach

PubMed Central

Pérez-González, José Manuel; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Martínez-Rider, Ricardo; Noyola-Frías, Miguel Ángel

2018-01-01

Introduction Factors that contribute to swelling and trismus are complex, and they are originated by surgical trauma. The aim of the present study was to determine whether clinical and radiographic factors could predict the level of swelling and trismus after lower third molar surgery, through longitudinal approach. Methodology A prospective longitudinal trial was carried out. Forty-five patients of both genders with clinical and radiographic diagnosis of asymptomatic mandibular impacted third molar and with no intake of analgesic or anti-inflammatory drugs 12 h prior to surgery were recruited and evaluated in a 72 h follow-up period. A mixed repeated measures model and backward and restricted maximal likelihood methods were used to analyze the data. Results Male gender, body mass index (BMI), the relation to the lingual and buccal walls, and age were determinants for predicting postoperative swelling and for exerting a significant influence (P < 0.05). Conclusions This study suggests the association of male gender, the relation to lingual and buccal walls, BMI, and age with measurement of swelling. PMID:29849848

Increased levels of markers of vascular inflammation in patients with coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Schumacher, A; Seljeflot, I; Sommervoll, L; Christensen, B; Otterstad, J E; Arnesen, H

2002-01-01

Elevated levels of soluble cell adhesion molecules (sCAMs), inflammatory cytokines and C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with atherosclerotic disease states. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether circulating levels of vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), E- and P-selectin were significantly elevated in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) compared with healthy controls, and to study possible associations between these sCAMs, tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha). interleukin-6 (IL-6), CRP and major CHD risk factors. The study included 193 patients in various stages of CHD and 193 matched controls. To evaluate any possible influence of acute phase reaction, reinvestigation was performed after 6 months. After adjustment for major CHD risk factors, sVCAM-1, sICAM-1, P-selectin, IL-6 and CRP remained significantly elevated in the CHD patients (p for all <0.001). In multivariate analysis sVCAM-1 was predicted by age (p=0.015), sICAM-1 by smoking (p<0.001) and total cholesterol (p=0.026), E-selectin by body mass index (BMI) (p=0.004) and P-selectin by male gender (p=0.015). TNFalpha significantly predicted sICAM-1 and E-selectin levels, while IL-6 predicted CRP but none of the sCAMs measured. This might indicate that TNFalpha, but not IL-6, plays a major role in the regulation of sCAM levels in vivo.

Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

Prediction of reported consumption of selected fat-containing foods.

PubMed

Tuorila, H; Pangborn, R M

1988-10-01

A total of 100 American females (mean age = 20.8 years) completed a questionnaire, in which their beliefs, evaluations, liking and consumption (frequency, consumption compared to others, intention to consume) of milk, cheese, ice cream, chocolate and "high-fat foods" were measured. For the design and analysis, the basic frame of reference was the Fishbein-Ajzen model of reasoned action, but the final analyses were carried out with stepwise multiple regression analysis. In addition to the components of the Fishbein-Ajzen model, beliefs and evaluations were used as independent variables. On the average, subjects reported liking all the products but not "high-fat foods", and thought that milk and cheese were "good for you" whereas the remaining items were "bad for you". Principal component analysis for beliefs revealed factors related to pleasantness/benefit aspects, to health and weight concern and to the "functionality" of the foods. In stepwise multiple regression analyses, liking was the predominant predictor of reported consumption for all the foods, but various belief factors, particularly those related to concern with weight, also significantly predicted consumption. Social factors played only a minor role. The multiple R's of the predictive functions varied from 0.49 to 0.74. The fact that all four foods studied elicited individual sets of beliefs and belief structures, and that none of them was rated similar to the generic "high-fat foods", emphasizes that consumers attach meaning to integrated food entities rather than to ingredients.

Spontaneous prematurity in fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernia: a retrospective cohort study about prenatal predictive factors.

PubMed

Barbosa, Bruna Maria Lopes; Rodrigues, Agatha S; Carvalho, Mario Henrique Burlacchini; Bittar, Roberto Eduardo; Francisco, Rossana Pulcineli Vieira; Bernardes, Lisandra Stein

2018-01-12

To evaluate possible predictive factors of spontaneous prematurity in fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). A retrospective cohort study was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of CDH; absence of fetoscopy; absence of karyotype abnormality; maximum of one major malformation associated with diaphragmatic hernia; ultrasound monitoring at the Obstetrics Clinic of Clinicas Hospital at the University of São Paulo School of Medicine, from January 2001 to October 2014. The data were obtained through the electronic records and ultrasound system of our fetal medicine service. The following variables were analyzed: maternal age, primiparity, associated maternal diseases, smoking, previous spontaneous preterm birth, fetal malformation associated with hernia, polyhydramnios, fetal growth restriction, presence of intrathoracic liver, invasive procedures performed, side of hernia and observed-to- expected lung to head ratio (o/e LHR). On individual analysis, variables were assessed using the Chi-square test and the Mann-Whitney test. A multiple logistic regression model was applied to select variables independently influencing the prediction of preterm delivery. A ROC curve was constructed with the significant variable, identifying the values with best sensitivity and specificity to be suggested for use in clinical practice. Eighty fetuses were evaluated, of which, 21 (26.25%) were premature. O/e LHR was the only factor associated with prematurity (p = 0.020). The ROC curve showed 93% sensitivity with 48.4% specificity for the cutoff of 40%. O/e LHR was the only predictor of prematurity in this sample.

FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

PubMed

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-02-18

About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR).

[Incidence and surgical wound infection risk factors in breast cancer surgery].

PubMed

Lefebvre, D; Penel, N; Deberles, M F; Fournier, C

2000-11-18

In order to evaluate occurrence and risk factors for wound infection (WI) in breast cancer surgery, we carried out a prospective study. From September 1996 through April 1997, an infection control physician prospectively evaluated 542 wounds of all patients having breast cancer surgery at the Oscar Lambret Cancer Center. WI was defined as a wound with pus. Antibiotic prophylaxis was given in case of immediate breast reconstruction. Statistical evaluation was performed using the c < or = test for categorial data and non-parametric Mann-Whitney test for continuous data. In univariate analysis, differences were considered significant at p < 0.01. The overall WI rate was 3.51% (19/352). In univariate analysis, risk factors for WI were: total preoperative hospital stay (p = 0.01), previous chemotherapy (p = 0.01), previous oncologic surgery (p = 0.03) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.002). In mutivariate analysis, we observed two independent predictive factors for WI: previous chemotherapy (p = 0.05) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.02). Previous anticancer chemotherapy was a major risk factor. In these cases, a phase III trial could confirm efficacy of standard antibiotic prophylaxis. Breast reconstruction was the second major risk factor. Standard antibiotic prophylaxis (used in our study) was insufficient.

Progression of coronary artery calcification seems to be inevitable, but predictable - results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study.

PubMed

Erbel, Raimund; Lehmann, Nils; Churzidse, Sofia; Rauwolf, Michael; Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Bauer, Marcus; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Montag, Michael; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2014-11-07

Coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a sign of atherosclerosis, can be detected and progression quantified using computed tomography (CT). We develop a tool for predicting CAC progression. In 3481 participants (45-74 years, 53.1% women) CAC percentiles at baseline (CACb) and after five years (CAC₅y) were evaluated, demonstrating progression along gender-specific percentiles, which showed exponentially shaped age-dependence. Using quantile regression on the log-scale (log(CACb+1)) we developed a tool to individually predict CAC₅y, and compared to observed CAC₅y. The difference between observed and predicted CAC₅y (log-scale, mean±SD) was 0.08±1.11 and 0.06±1.29 in men and women. Agreement reached a kappa-value of 0.746 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.760) and concordance correlation (log-scale) of 0.886 (0.879-0.893). Explained variance of observed by predicted log(CAC₅y+1) was 80.1% and 72.0% in men and women, and 81.0 and 73.6% including baseline risk factors. Evaluating the tool in 1940 individuals with CACb>0 and CACb<400 at baseline, of whom 242 (12.5%) developed CAC₅y>400, yielded a sensitivity of 59.5%, specificity 96.1%, (+) and (-) predictive values of 68.3% and 94.3%. A pre-defined acceptance range around predicted CAC₅y contained 68.1% of observed CAC₅y; only 20% were expected by chance. Age, blood pressure, lipid-lowering medication, diabetes, and smoking contributed to progression above the acceptance range in men and, excepting age, in women. CAC nearly inevitably progresses with limited influence of cardiovascular risk factors. This allowed the development of a mathematical tool for prediction of individual CAC progression, enabling anticipation of the age when CAC thresholds of high risk are reached. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evaluation of fetal anthropometric measures to predict the risk for shoulder dystocia.

PubMed

Burkhardt, T; Schmidt, M; Kurmanavicius, J; Zimmermann, R; Schäffer, L

2014-01-01

To evaluate the quality of anthropometric measures to improve the prediction of shoulder dystocia by combining different sonographic biometric parameters. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12,794 vaginal deliveries with complete sonographic biometry data obtained within 7 days before delivery. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves of various combinations of the biometric parameters, namely, biparietal diameter (BPD), occipitofrontal diameter (OFD), head circumference, abdominal diameter (AD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length were analyzed. The influences of independent risk factors were calculated and their combination used in a predictive model. The incidence of shoulder dystocia was 1.14%. Different combinations of sonographic parameters showed comparable ROC curves without advantage for a particular combination. The difference between AD and BPD (AD - BPD) (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.704) revealed a significant increase in risk (odds ratio (OR) 7.6 (95% CI 4.2-13.9), sensitivity 8.2%, specificity 98.8%) at a suggested cut-off ≥ 2.6 cm. However, the positive predictive value (PPV) was low (7.5%). The AC as a single parameter (AUC = 0.732) with a cut-off ≥ 35 cm performed worse (OR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5), PPV 2.6%). BPD/OFD (a surrogate for fetal cranial shape) was not significantly different between those with and those without shoulder dystocia. The combination of estimated fetal weight, maternal diabetes, gender and AD - BPD provided a reasonable estimate of the individual risk. Sonographic fetal anthropometric measures appear not to be a useful tool to screen for the risk of shoulder dystocia due to a low PPV. However, AD - BPD appears to be a relevant risk factor. While risk stratification including different known risk factors may aid in counseling, shoulder dystocia cannot effectively be predicted. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Candida colonization as a risk marker for invasive candidiasis in mixed medical-surgical intensive care units: development and evaluation of a simple, standard protocol.

PubMed

Lau, Anna F; Kabir, Masrura; Chen, Sharon C-A; Playford, E Geoffrey; Marriott, Deborah J; Jones, Michael; Lipman, Jeffrey; McBryde, Emma; Gottlieb, Thomas; Cheung, Winston; Seppelt, Ian; Iredell, Jonathan; Sorrell, Tania C

2015-04-01

Colonization with Candida species is an independent risk factor for invasive candidiasis (IC), but the minimum and most practicable parameters for prediction of IC have not been optimized. We evaluated Candida colonization in a prospective cohort of 6,015 nonneutropenic, critically ill patients. Throat, perineum, and urine were sampled 72 h post-intensive care unit (ICU) admission and twice weekly until discharge or death. Specimens were cultured onto chromogenic agar, and a subset underwent molecular characterization. Sixty-three (86%) patients who developed IC were colonized prior to infection; 61 (97%) tested positive within the first two time points. The median time from colonization to IC was 7 days (range, 0 to 35). Colonization at any site was predictive of IC, with the risk of infection highest for urine colonization (relative risk [RR]=2.25) but with the sensitivity highest (98%) for throat and/or perineum colonization. Colonization of ≥2 sites and heavy colonization of ≥1 site were significant independent risk factors for IC (RR=2.25 and RR=3.7, respectively), increasing specificity to 71% to 74% but decreasing sensitivity to 48% to 58%. Molecular testing would have prompted a resistance-driven decision to switch from fluconazole treatment in only 11% of patients infected with C. glabrata, based upon species-level identification alone. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were low (2% to 4%) and negative predictive values (NPVs) high (99% to 100%) regardless of which parameters were applied. In the Australian ICU setting, culture of throat and perineum within the first two time points after ICU admission captures 84% (61/73 patients) of subsequent IC cases. These optimized parameters, in combination with clinical risk factors, should strengthen development of a setting-specific risk-predictive model for IC. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

A probabilistic approach to photovoltaic generator performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallat, M. A.; Rahman, S.

1986-09-01

A method for predicting the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance is described. The equations for cell model formulation are provided. Use of the statistical model for characterizing the insolation level is discussed. The insolation data is fitted to appropriate probability distribution functions (Weibull, beta, normal). The probability distribution functions are utilized to evaluate the capacity factors of PV panels or arrays. An example is presented revealing the applicability of the procedure.

Evaluation of potential factors predicting attainment of full gavage feedings in preterm infants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The clinical measures of gastric residuals and abdominal distention are often used to guide feeding in preterm infants, but there are few data demonstrating their usefulness. Similarly, techniques are now available to investigate gastrointestinal (GI) function noninvasively and safely, but their abi...

Comparative evaluation of GPR versus APRI and FIB-4 in predicting different levels of liver fibrosis of chronic hepatitis B.

PubMed

Liu, D-P; Lu, W; Zhang, Z-Q; Wang, Y-B; Ding, R-R; Zhou, X-L; Huang, D; Li, X-F

2018-05-01

It is of great significance to develop and evaluate noninvasive indexes predicting the level of liver fibrosis. The aim of this study was to comparatively evaluate gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) versus aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4) in predicting different levels of liver fibrosis of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) within the framework of HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. A total of 1157 HBeAg-positive and 859 HBeAg-negative CHB patients were enrolled, among whom the pathological stage ≥S2, ≥S3, ≥S4 were defined as significant fibrosis, extensive fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the performance of GPR, APRI and FIB-4 in predicting different levels of liver fibrosis. In HBeAg-positive patients, the area under ROC curves (AUROCs) of GPR in predicting extensive fibrosis and cirrhosis were both significantly larger than those of APRI (P = .0001 and P < .0001). In HBeAg-negative patients, the AUROCs of GPR in predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis were significantly larger than those of FIB-4 (P = .0006 and P = .0041). The AUROC of GPR in predicting extensive fibrosis was significantly larger than that of APRI and FIB-4 (P = .0320 and P = .0018). Using a cut-off of GPR > 0.500 as standard, the sensitivities and specificities of GPR in predicting significant fibrosis in HBeAg-positive patients were 59.6% and 81.2%, and for cirrhosis 80.9% and 63.8%, respectively; and those of HBeAg-negative patients were 60.3% and 78.3%, 84.5% and 66.1%, respectively. Regardless of HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative status, GPR had the best performance in predicting different levels of liver fibrosis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of simplified stream-aquifer depletion models for water rights administration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, Marios; Koussis, Antonis; Martin, J.L.; Perkins, S.P.

1995-01-01

We assess the predictive accuracy of Glover's (1974) stream-aquifer analytical solutions, which are commonly used in administering water rights, and evaluate the impact of the assumed idealizations on administrative and management decisions. To achieve these objectives, we evaluate the predictive capabilities of the Glover stream-aquifer depletion model against the MODFLOW numerical standard, which, unlike the analytical model, can handle increasing hydrogeologic complexity. We rank-order and quantify the relative importance of the various assumptions on which the analytical model is based, the three most important being: (1) streambed clogging as quantified by streambed-aquifer hydraulic conductivity contrast; (2) degree of stream partial penetration; and (3) aquifer heterogeneity. These three factors relate directly to the multidimensional nature of the aquifer flow conditions. From these considerations, future efforts to reduce the uncertainty in stream depletion-related administrative decisions should primarily address these three factors in characterizing the stream-aquifer process. We also investigate the impact of progressively coarser model grid size on numerically estimating stream leakage and conclude that grid size effects are relatively minor. Therefore, when modeling is required, coarser model grids could be used thus minimizing the input data requirements.

Predicting the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary health care. The predictD-Spain study: Methodology

PubMed Central

Bellón, Juan Ángel; Moreno-Küstner, Berta; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; de Dios Luna, Juan; Cervilla, Jorge A; Gutierrez, Blanca; Martínez-Cañavate, María Teresa; Oliván-Blázquez, Bárbara; Vázquez-Medrano, Ana; Sánchez-Artiaga, María Soledad; March, Sebastia; Motrico, Emma; Ruiz-García, Victor Manuel; Brangier-Wainberg, Paulette Renée; del Mar Muñoz-García, María; Nazareth, Irwin; King, Michael

2008-01-01

Background The effects of putative risk factors on the onset and/or persistence of depression remain unclear. We aim to develop comprehensive models to predict the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary care. Here we explain the general methodology of the predictD-Spain study and evaluate the reliability of the questionnaires used. Methods This is a prospective cohort study. A systematic random sample of general practice attendees aged 18 to 75 has been recruited in seven Spanish provinces. Depression is being measured with the CIDI at baseline, and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. A set of individual, environmental, genetic, professional and organizational risk factors are to be assessed at each follow-up point. In a separate reliability study, a proportional random sample of 401 participants completed the test-retest (251 researcher-administered and 150 self-administered) between October 2005 and February 2006. We have also checked 118,398 items for data entry from a random sample of 480 patients stratified by province. Results All items and questionnaires had good test-retest reliability for both methods of administration, except for the use of recreational drugs over the previous six months. Cronbach's alphas were good and their factorial analyses coherent for the three scales evaluated (social support from family and friends, dissatisfaction with paid work, and dissatisfaction with unpaid work). There were 191 (0.16%) data entry errors. Conclusion The items and questionnaires were reliable and data quality control was excellent. When we eventually obtain our risk index for the onset and persistence of depression, we will be able to determine the individual risk of each patient evaluated in primary health care. PMID:18657275

Clinical validation of an epigenetic assay to predict negative histopathological results in repeat prostate biopsies.

PubMed

Partin, Alan W; Van Neste, Leander; Klein, Eric A; Marks, Leonard S; Gee, Jason R; Troyer, Dean A; Rieger-Christ, Kimberly; Jones, J Stephen; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Mangold, Leslie A; Trock, Bruce J; Lance, Raymond S; Bigley, Joseph W; Van Criekinge, Wim; Epstein, Jonathan I

2014-10-01

The DOCUMENT multicenter trial in the United States validated the performance of an epigenetic test as an independent predictor of prostate cancer risk to guide decision making for repeat biopsy. Confirming an increased negative predictive value could help avoid unnecessary repeat biopsies. We evaluated the archived, cancer negative prostate biopsy core tissue samples of 350 subjects from a total of 5 urological centers in the United States. All subjects underwent repeat biopsy within 24 months with a negative (controls) or positive (cases) histopathological result. Centralized blinded pathology evaluation of the 2 biopsy series was performed in all available subjects from each site. Biopsies were epigenetically profiled for GSTP1, APC and RASSF1 relative to the ACTB reference gene using quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction. Predetermined analytical marker cutoffs were used to determine assay performance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate all risk factors. The epigenetic assay resulted in a negative predictive value of 88% (95% CI 85-91). In multivariate models correcting for age, prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination, first biopsy histopathological characteristics and race the test proved to be the most significant independent predictor of patient outcome (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.60-4.51). The DOCUMENT study validated that the epigenetic assay was a significant, independent predictor of prostate cancer detection in a repeat biopsy collected an average of 13 months after an initial negative result. Due to its 88% negative predictive value adding this epigenetic assay to other known risk factors may help decrease unnecessary repeat prostate biopsies. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Combination of Geographically Weighted Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study at Wanzhou in the Three Gorges Area, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Xianyu; Wang, Yi; Niu, Ruiqing; Hu, Youjian

2016-01-01

In this study, a novel coupling model for landslide susceptibility mapping is presented. In practice, environmental factors may have different impacts at a local scale in study areas. To provide better predictions, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique is firstly used in our method to segment study areas into a series of prediction regions with appropriate sizes. Meanwhile, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier is exploited in each prediction region for landslide susceptibility mapping. To further improve the prediction performance, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used in the prediction regions to obtain optimal parameters for the SVM classifier. To evaluate the prediction performance of our model, several SVM-based prediction models are utilized for comparison on a study area of the Wanzhou district in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Experimental results, based on three objective quantitative measures and visual qualitative evaluation, indicate that our model can achieve better prediction accuracies and is more effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. For instance, our model can achieve an overall prediction accuracy of 91.10%, which is 7.8%–19.1% higher than the traditional SVM-based models. In addition, the obtained landslide susceptibility map by our model can demonstrate an intensive correlation between the classified very high-susceptibility zone and the previously investigated landslides. PMID:27187430

A Combination of Geographically Weighted Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Case Study at Wanzhou in the Three Gorges Area, China.

PubMed

Yu, Xianyu; Wang, Yi; Niu, Ruiqing; Hu, Youjian

2016-05-11

In this study, a novel coupling model for landslide susceptibility mapping is presented. In practice, environmental factors may have different impacts at a local scale in study areas. To provide better predictions, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique is firstly used in our method to segment study areas into a series of prediction regions with appropriate sizes. Meanwhile, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier is exploited in each prediction region for landslide susceptibility mapping. To further improve the prediction performance, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used in the prediction regions to obtain optimal parameters for the SVM classifier. To evaluate the prediction performance of our model, several SVM-based prediction models are utilized for comparison on a study area of the Wanzhou district in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Experimental results, based on three objective quantitative measures and visual qualitative evaluation, indicate that our model can achieve better prediction accuracies and is more effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. For instance, our model can achieve an overall prediction accuracy of 91.10%, which is 7.8%-19.1% higher than the traditional SVM-based models. In addition, the obtained landslide susceptibility map by our model can demonstrate an intensive correlation between the classified very high-susceptibility zone and the previously investigated landslides.

Prediction of the presence of insulin resistance using general health checkup data in Japanese employees with metabolic risk factors.

PubMed

Takahara, Mitsuyoshi; Katakami, Naoto; Kaneto, Hideaki; Noguchi, Midori; Shimomura, Iichiro

2014-01-01

The aim of the current study was to develop a predictive model of insulin resistance using general health checkup data in Japanese employees with one or more metabolic risk factors. We used a database of 846 Japanese employees with one or more metabolic risk factors who underwent general health checkup and a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Logistic regression models were developed to predict existing insulin resistance evaluated using the Matsuda index. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using the C statistic. The C statistics of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and their combined use were 0.743, 0.732 and 0.749, with no significant differences. The multivariate backward selection model, in which BMI, the levels of plasma glucose, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, log-transformed triglycerides and log-transformed alanine aminotransferase and hypertension under treatment remained, had a C statistic of 0.816, with a significant difference compared to the combined use of BMI and waist circumference (p＜0.01). The C statistic was not significantly reduced when the levels of log-transformed triglycerides and log-transformed alanine aminotransferase and hypertension under treatment were simultaneously excluded from the multivariate model (p=0.14). On the other hand, further exclusion of any of the remaining three variables significantly reduced the C statistic (all p＜0.01). When predicting the presence of insulin resistance using general health checkup data in Japanese employees with metabolic risk factors, it is important to take into consideration the BMI and fasting plasma glucose and HDL cholesterol levels.

Predicting absenteeism: screening for work ability or burnout.

PubMed

Schouteten, R

2017-01-01

In determining the predictors of occupational health problems, two factors can be distinguished: personal (work ability) factors and work-related factors (burnout, job characteristics). However, these risk factors are hardly ever combined and it is not clear whether burnout or work ability best predicts absenteeism. To relate measures of work ability, burnout and job characteristics to absenteeism as the indicators of occupational health problems. Survey data on work ability, burnout and job characteristics from a Dutch university were related to the absenteeism data from the university's occupational health and safety database in the year following the survey study. The survey contained the Work Ability Index (WAI), Utrecht Burnout Scale (UBOS) and seven job characteristics from the Questionnaire on Experience and Evaluation of Work (QEEW). There were 242 employees in the study group. Logistic regression analyses revealed that job characteristics did not predict absenteeism. Exceptional absenteeism was most consistently predicted by the WAI dimensions 'employees' own prognosis of work ability in two years from now' and 'mental resources/vitality' and the burnout dimension 'emotional exhaustion'. Other significant predictors of exceptional absenteeism frequency included estimated work impairment due to diseases (WAI) and feelings of depersonalization or emotional distance from the work (burnout). Absenteeism among university personnel was best predicted by a combination of work ability and burnout. As a result, measures to prevent absenteeism and health problems may best be aimed at improving an individual's work ability and/or preventing the occurrence of burnout. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Improved algorithms and methods for room sound-field prediction by acoustical radiosity in arbitrary polyhedral rooms.

PubMed

Nosal, Eva-Marie; Hodgson, Murray; Ashdown, Ian

2004-08-01

This paper explores acoustical (or time-dependent) radiosity--a geometrical-acoustics sound-field prediction method that assumes diffuse surface reflection. The literature of acoustical radiosity is briefly reviewed and the advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. A discrete form of the integral equation that results from meshing the enclosure boundaries into patches is presented and used in a discrete-time algorithm. Furthermore, an averaging technique is used to reduce computational requirements. To generalize to nonrectangular rooms, a spherical-triangle method is proposed as a means of evaluating the integrals over solid angles that appear in the discrete form of the integral equation. The evaluation of form factors, which also appear in the numerical solution, is discussed for rectangular and nonrectangular rooms. This algorithm and associated methods are validated by comparison of the steady-state predictions for a spherical enclosure to analytical solutions.

Improved algorithms and methods for room sound-field prediction by acoustical radiosity in arbitrary polyhedral rooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nosal, Eva-Marie; Hodgson, Murray; Ashdown, Ian

2004-08-01

This paper explores acoustical (or time-dependent) radiosity-a geometrical-acoustics sound-field prediction method that assumes diffuse surface reflection. The literature of acoustical radiosity is briefly reviewed and the advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. A discrete form of the integral equation that results from meshing the enclosure boundaries into patches is presented and used in a discrete-time algorithm. Furthermore, an averaging technique is used to reduce computational requirements. To generalize to nonrectangular rooms, a spherical-triangle method is proposed as a means of evaluating the integrals over solid angles that appear in the discrete form of the integral equation. The evaluation of form factors, which also appear in the numerical solution, is discussed for rectangular and nonrectangular rooms. This algorithm and associated methods are validated by comparison of the steady-state predictions for a spherical enclosure to analytical solutions.

Geriatric Assessment and Tools for Predicting Treatment Toxicity in Older Adults With Cancer.

PubMed

Li, Daneng; Soto-Perez-de-Celis, Enrique; Hurria, Arti

Cancer is a disease of older adults, and the majority of new cancer cases and deaths occur in people 65 years or older. However, fewer data are available regarding the risks and benefits of cancer treatment in older adults, and commonly used assessments in oncology fail to adequately evaluate factors that affect treatment efficacy and outcomes in the older patients. The geriatric assessment is a multidisciplinary evaluation that provides detailed information about a patient's functional status, comorbidities, psychological state, social support, nutritional status, and cognitive function. Among older patients with cancer, geriatric assessment has been shown to identify patients at risk of poorer overall survival, and geriatric assessment-based tools are significantly more effective in predicting chemotherapy toxicity than other currently utilized measures. In this review, we summarize the components of the geriatric assessment and provide information about existing tools used to predict treatment toxicity in older patients with cancer.

The Effects of Writing Anxiety and Motivation on EFL College Students' Self-Evaluative Judgments of Corrective Feedback.

PubMed

Tsao, Jui-Jung; Tseng, Wen-Ta; Wang, Chaochang

2017-04-01

Feedback is regarded as a way to foster students' motivation and to ensure linguistic accuracy. However, mixed findings are reported in the research on written corrective feedback because of its multifaceted nature and its correlations with learners' individual differences. It is necessary, therefore, to conduct further research on corrective feedback from the student's perspective and to examine how individual differences in terms of factors such as writing anxiety and motivation predict learners' self-evaluative judgments of both teacher-corrected and peer-corrected feedback. For this study, 158 Taiwanese college sophomores participated in a survey that comprised three questionnaires. Results demonstrated that intrinsic motivation and different types of writing anxiety predicted English as foreign language learners' evaluative judgments of teacher and peer feedback. The findings have implications for English-writing instruction.

[Forest lighting fire forecasting for Daxing'anling Mountains based on MAXENT model].

PubMed

Sun, Yu; Shi, Ming-Chang; Peng, Huan; Zhu, Pei-Lin; Liu, Si-Lin; Wu, Shi-Lei; He, Cheng; Chen, Feng

2014-04-01

Daxing'anling Mountains is one of the areas with the highest occurrence of forest lighting fire in Heilongjiang Province, and developing a lightning fire forecast model to accurately predict the forest fires in this area is of importance. Based on the data of forest lightning fires and environment variables, the MAXENT model was used to predict the lightning fire in Daxing' anling region. Firstly, we studied the collinear diagnostic of each environment variable, evaluated the importance of the environmental variables using training gain and the Jackknife method, and then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MAXENT model using the max Kappa value and the AUC value. The results showed that the variance inflation factor (VIF) values of lightning energy and neutralized charge were 5.012 and 6.230, respectively. They were collinear with the other variables, so the model could not be used for training. Daily rainfall, the number of cloud-to-ground lightning, and current intensity of cloud-to-ground lightning were the three most important factors affecting the lightning fires in the forest, while the daily average wind speed and the slope was of less importance. With the increase of the proportion of test data, the max Kappa and AUC values were increased. The max Kappa values were above 0.75 and the average value was 0.772, while all of the AUC values were above 0.5 and the average value was 0. 859. With a moderate level of prediction accuracy being achieved, the MAXENT model could be used to predict forest lightning fire in Daxing'anling Mountains.

Developing and Testing a Model to Predict Outcomes of Organizational Change

PubMed Central

Gustafson, David H; Sainfort, François; Eichler, Mary; Adams, Laura; Bisognano, Maureen; Steudel, Harold

2003-01-01

Objective To test the effectiveness of a Bayesian model employing subjective probability estimates for predicting success and failure of health care improvement projects. Data Sources Experts' subjective assessment data for model development and independent retrospective data on 221 healthcare improvement projects in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands collected between 1996 and 2000 for validation. Methods A panel of theoretical and practical experts and literature in organizational change were used to identify factors predicting the outcome of improvement efforts. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate probability of successful change using subjective estimates of likelihood ratios and prior odds elicited from the panel of experts. A subsequent retrospective empirical analysis of change efforts in 198 health care organizations was performed to validate the model. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance using three alternative definitions of success. Data Collection For the model development, experts' subjective assessments were elicited using an integrative group process. For the validation study, a staff person intimately involved in each improvement project responded to a written survey asking questions about model factors and project outcomes. Results Logistic regression chi-square statistics and areas under the ROC curve demonstrated a high level of model performance in predicting success. Chi-square statistics were significant at the 0.001 level and areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.84. Conclusions A subjective Bayesian model was effective in predicting the outcome of actual improvement projects. Additional prospective evaluations as well as testing the impact of this model as an intervention are warranted. PMID:12785571

Evaluating the High Risk Groups for Suicide: A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

AMINI, Payam; AHMADINIA, Hasan; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MOQADDASI AMIRI, Mohammad

2016-01-01

Background: We aimed to assess the high-risk group for suicide using different classification methods includinglogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). Methods: We used the dataset of a study conducted to predict risk factors of completed suicide in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, in 2010. To evaluate the high-risk groups for suicide, LR, SVM, DT and ANN were performed. The applied methods were compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value, accuracy and the area under curve. Cochran-Q test was implied to check differences in proportion among methods. To assess the association between the observed and predicted values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were calculated. Results: Gender, age, and job were the most important risk factors for fatal suicide attempts in common for four methods. SVM method showed the highest accuracy 0.68 and 0.67 for training and testing sample, respectively. However, this method resulted in the highest specificity (0.67 for training and 0.68 for testing sample) and the highest sensitivity for training sample (0.85), but the lowest sensitivity for the testing sample (0.53). Cochran-Q test resulted in differences between proportions in different methods (P<0.001). The association of SVM predictions and observed values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were 0.239, 0.232 and 0.239, respectively. Conclusion: SVM had the best performance to classify fatal suicide attempts comparing to DT, LR and ANN. PMID:27957463

Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX): A Modified Aircraft Count to Predict Sector Complexity During Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prevot, Thomas; Lee, Paul U.

2011-01-01

In this paper we introduce a new complexity metric to predict -in real-time- sector complexity for trajectory-based operations (TBO). TBO will be implemented in the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX) is a modified aircraft count that can easily be computed and communicated in a TBO environment based upon predictions of aircraft and weather trajectories. TBX is scaled to aircraft count and represents an alternate and additional means to manage air traffic demand and capacity with more consideration of dynamic factors such as weather, aircraft equipage or predicted separation violations, as well as static factors such as sector size. We have developed and evaluated TBX in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center during human-in-the-loop studies of trajectory-based concepts since 2009. In this paper we will describe the TBX computation in detail and present the underlying algorithm. Next, we will describe the specific TBX used in an experiment at NASA's AOL. We will evaluate the performance of this metric using data collected during a controller-inthe- loop study on trajectory-based operations at different equipage levels. In this study controllers were prompted at regular intervals to rate their current workload on a numeric scale. When comparing this real-time workload rating to the TBX values predicted for these time periods we demonstrate that TBX is a better predictor of workload than aircraft count. Furthermore we demonstrate that TBX is well suited to be used for complexity management in TBO and can easily be adjusted to future operational concepts.

Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms.

PubMed

Kene, Mamata V; Ballard, Dustin W; Vinson, David R; Rauchwerger, Adina S; Iskin, Hilary R; Kim, Anthony S

2015-09-01

We evaluated emergency physicians' (EP) current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. The response rate was 68% (366/535). Respondents' median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified). Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT) (74%). Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49%) and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation) testing (30%); however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests' bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively). Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability.

A fuzzy linguistic model for the prediction of carpal tunnel syndrome risks in an occupational environment.

PubMed

Bell, P M; Crumpton, L

1997-08-01

This research presents the development and evaluation of a fuzzy linguistic model designated to predict the risk of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in an occupational setting. CTS has become one of the largest problems facing ergonomists and the medical community because it is developing in epidemic proportions within the occupational environment. In addition, practitioners are interested in identifying accurate methods for evaluating the risk of CTS in an occupational setting. It is hypothesized that many factors impact an individual's likelihood of developing CTS and the eventual development of CTS. This disparity in the occurrence of CTS for workers with similar backgrounds and work activities has confused researchers and has been a stumbling block in the development of a model for widespread use in evaluating the development of CTS. Thus this research is an attempt to develop a method that can be used to predict the likelihood of CTS risk in a variety of environments. The intent is that this model will be applied eventually in an occupational setting, thus model development was focused on a method that provided a usable interface and the desired system inputs can also be obtained without the benefit of a medical practitioner. The methodology involves knowledge acquisition to identify and categorize a holistic set of risk factors that include task-related, personal, and organizational categories. The determination of relative factor importance was accomplished using analytic hierarchy processing (AHP) analysis. Finally a mathematical representation of the CTS risk was accomplished by utilizing fuzzy set theory in order to quantify linguistic input parameters. An evaluation of the model including determination of sensitivity and specificity is conducted and the results of the model indicate that the results are fairly accurate and this method has the potential for widespread use. A significant aspect of this research is the comparison of this technique to other methods for assessing presence of CTS. The results of this evaluation technique are compared with more traditional methods for assessing the presence of CTS.

Bifactor latent structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)/oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms and first-order latent structure of sluggish cognitive tempo symptoms.

PubMed

Lee, SoYean; Burns, G Leonard; Beauchaine, Theodore P; Becker, Stephen P

2016-08-01

The objective was to determine if the latent structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms is best explained by a general disruptive behavior factor along with specific inattention (IN), hyperactivity/impulsivity (HI), and ODD factors (a bifactor model) whereas the latent structure of sluggish cognitive tempo (SCT) symptoms is best explained by a first-order factor independent of the bifactor model of ADHD/ODD. Parents' (n = 703) and teachers' (n = 366) ratings of SCT, ADHD-IN, ADHD-HI, and ODD symptoms on the Child and Adolescent Disruptive Behavior Inventory (CADBI) in a community sample of children (ages 5-13; 55% girls) were used to evaluate 4 models of symptom organization. Results indicated that a bifactor model of ADHD/ODD symptoms, in conjunction with a separate first-order SCT factor, was the best model for both parent and teacher ratings. The first-order SCT factor showed discriminant validity with the general disruptive behavior and specific IN factors in the bifactor model. In addition, higher scores on the SCT factor predicted greater academic and social impairment, even after controlling for the general disruptive behavior and 3 specific factors. Consistent with predictions from the trait-impulsivity etiological model of externalizing liability, a single, general disruptive behavior factor accounted for nearly all common variance in ADHD/ODD symptoms, whereas SCT symptoms represented a factor different from the general disruptive behavior and specific IN factor. These results provide additional support for distinguishing between SCT and ADHD-IN. The study also demonstrates how etiological models can be used to predict specific latent structures of symptom organization. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Psychometric properties of the Affordances in the Home Environment for Motor Development inventory for use with Iranian children aged 18-42 months.

PubMed

Valadi, Saeed; Gabbard, Carl; Arabameri, Elahe; Kashi, Ali; Ghasemi, Abdollah

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to translate the original English language version of the Affordances in the Home Environment for Motor Development (AHEMD) inventory and test its psychometric properties for use with Iranian children aged 18-42 months. For this purpose, the tool was translated into Farsi (a Persian language) using the forward-backward translation method and some of its psychometric properties were examined. Multistage stratified-cluster sampling was used to study 1019 families having children aged 18-42 months from among the regional divisions of Tehran urban community health centers. The questionnaire evaluated five factors: outside space, inside space, variety of stimulation, fine motor toys and gross motor toys. Expert opinion was used for content-related validity evaluation and confirmatory factor analysis was used to determine construct validity. For test-retest reliability, parents completed identical questionnaires two weeks apart. Internal consistency was evaluated using inter-examiner reliability, Cronbach's alpha and construct reliability. Linear regression analysis was used to explain and predict the effects of toys on AHEMD total score. Results showed that content-related validity was 0.92. Data confirmatory factor analysis showed an acceptable fit to the original five factors. Reliability over time was 0.91 and internal consistency was 0.93. It was also found that fine- and gross-motor toys showed a significant 55% predictability of affordance provision in the home. The Farsi translation of the AHEMD is acceptable for use with Iranian children aged 18-42 month. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of demographic, social, and environmental characteristics on pathogen prevalence in wild felids across a gradient of urbanization

PubMed Central

Logan, Kenneth A.; Alldredge, Mat W.; Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N.; Lappin, Michael; VandeWoude, Sue; Crooks, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Transmission of pathogens among animals is influenced by demographic, social, and environmental factors. Anthropogenic alteration of landscapes can impact patterns of disease dynamics in wildlife populations, increasing the potential for spillover and spread of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, human, and domestic animal populations. We evaluated the effects of multiple ecological mechanisms on patterns of pathogen exposure in animal populations. Specifically, we evaluated how ecological factors affected the prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii (Toxoplasma), Bartonella spp. (Bartonella), feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), and feline calicivirus (FCV) in bobcat and puma populations across wildland-urban interface (WUI), low-density exurban development, and wildland habitat on the Western Slope (WS) and Front Range (FR) of Colorado during 2009–2011. Samples were collected from 37 bobcats and 29 pumas on the WS and FR. As predicted, age appeared to be positively related to the exposure to pathogens that are both environmentally transmitted (Toxoplasma) and directly transmitted between animals (FIV). In addition, WS bobcats appeared more likely to be exposed to Toxoplasma with increasing intraspecific space-use overlap. However, counter to our predictions, exposure to directly-transmitted pathogens (FCV and FIV) was more likely with decreasing space-use overlap (FCV: WS bobcats) and potential intraspecific contacts (FIV: FR pumas). Environmental factors, including urbanization and landscape covariates, were generally unsupported in our models. This study is an approximation of how pathogens can be evaluated in relation to demographic, social, and environmental factors to understand pathogen exposure in wild animal populations. PMID:29121060

A microRNA-based prediction model for lymph node metastasis in hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Xiang, Zuo-Lin; Zeng, Zhao-Chong; Fan, Jia; Tang, Zhao-You; Zhao, Xiao-Mei

2016-01-19

We developed an efficient microRNA (miRNA) model that could predict the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We first evaluated a training cohort of 192 HCC patients after hepatectomy and found five LNM associated predictive factors: vascular invasion, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, miR-145, miR-31, and miR-92a. The five statistically independent factors were used to develop a predictive model. The predictive value of the miRNA-based model was confirmed in a validation cohort of 209 consecutive HCC patients. The prediction model was scored for LNM risk from 0 to 8. The cutoff value 4 was used to distinguish high-risk and low-risk groups. The model sensitivity and specificity was 69.6 and 80.2%, respectively, during 5 years in the validation cohort. And the area under the curve (AUC) for the miRNA-based prognostic model was 0.860. The 5-year positive and negative predictive values of the model in the validation cohort were 30.3 and 95.5%, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed that the LNM hazard ratio of the high-risk versus low-risk groups was 11.751 (95% CI, 5.110-27.021; P < 0.001) in the validation cohort. In conclusion, the miRNA-based model is reliable and accurate for the early prediction of LNM in patients with HCC.

Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium concentration ratios for freshwater fish.

PubMed

Pinder, John E; Rowan, David J; Rasmussen, Joseph B; Smith, Jim T; Hinton, Thomas G; Whicker, F W

2014-08-01

Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to produce and test a regression model to predict Cs concentration ratios for freshwater fish species. The accuracies of predicted concentration ratios, which were computed using 1) species trophic levels obtained from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the water for 207 fish from 44 species and 43 locations, were tested against independent observations of ratios for 57 fish from 17 species from 25 locations. Accuracy was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios within factors of 2 or 3. Conservatism, expressed as the lack of under prediction, was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios that were less than 2 or less than 3. The model's median observed to predicted ratio was 1.26, which was not significantly different from 1, and 50% of the ratios were between 0.73 and 1.85. The percentages of ratios within factors of 2 or 3 were 67 and 82%, respectively. The percentages of ratios that were <2 or <3 were 79 and 88%, respectively. An example for Perca fluviatilis demonstrated that increased prediction accuracy could be obtained when more detailed knowledge of diet was available to estimate trophic level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: An International Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palma, David A., E-mail: david.palma@uwo.ca; Senan, Suresh; Tsujino, Kayoko

2013-02-01

Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a dose-limiting toxicity for patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 836 patients who underwent CCRT in Europe, North America, and Asia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (two-thirds vs one-third of patients). Factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis (grade {>=}2 by 1 of several scoring systems) or fatal pneumonitis were evaluated using logistic regression. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) wasmore » used to define risk groups. Results: The median radiation therapy dose was 60 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.3 years. Most patients received concurrent cisplatin/etoposide (38%) or carboplatin/paclitaxel (26%). The overall rate of symptomatic pneumonitis was 29.8% (n=249), with fatal pneumonitis in 1.9% (n=16). In the training set, factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis were lung volume receiving {>=}20 Gy (V{sub 20}) (odds ratio [OR] 1.03 per 1% increase, P=.008), and carboplatin/paclitaxel chemotherapy (OR 3.33, P<.001), with a trend for age (OR 1.24 per decade, P=.09); the model remained predictive in the validation set with good discrimination in both datasets (c-statistic >0.65). On RPA, the highest risk of pneumonitis (>50%) was in patients >65 years of age receiving carboplatin/paclitaxel. Predictors of fatal pneumonitis were daily dose >2 Gy, V{sub 20}, and lower-lobe tumor location. Conclusions: Several treatment-related risk factors predict the development of symptomatic pneumonitis, and elderly patients who undergo CCRT with carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy are at highest risk. Fatal pneumonitis, although uncommon, is related to dosimetric factors and tumor location.« less

[Satisfaction with life of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a study of possible protection and risk factors].

PubMed

Miranda-Casas, Ana; Presentacion-Herrero, M Jesús; Colomer-Diago, Carla; Roselló, Belén

2011-03-01

Positive psychology has boosted interest about the study of factors of adjustment, among which is included satisfaction with life. To analyze the relationship between satisfaction with life of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their parents with behavioral risk and protective variables, and to determine the predictive power of these variables. 56 parents and their children with ADHD filled out questionnaires of satisfaction with life, self-concept, sense of coherence, success attributes and behavioral rating scales. Behavioral problems have a significant negative relationship with satisfaction with life perceived by parents and by children while the relationships with the self-concept and success attributes have a positive value. The most predictive factors were social problems, oppositional behavior, self-concept, self-awareness and social support. The identification of factors that put at risk or enhance satisfaction with life of people with ADHD will improve the functionality of evaluation and intervention processes.

Geographic profiling to assess the risk of rare plant poaching in natural areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, J.A.; Van Manen, F.T.; Thatcher, C.A.

2011-01-01

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA) 2011.

A Prospective Examination of Perceived Burdensomeness and Thwarted Belongingness As Risk Factors for Suicide Ideation In Adult Outpatients Receiving Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy.

PubMed

Teismann, Tobias; Glaesmer, Heide; von Brachel, Ruth; Siegmann, Paula; Forkmann, Thomas

2017-10-01

The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior posits that 2 proximal, causal, and interactive risk factors must be present for someone to desire suicide: perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the predictive power of these 2 risk factors in a prospective study. A total of 231 adult outpatients (age: mean = 38.1, standard deviation = 12.3) undergoing cognitive-behavioral therapy took part in a pretreatment and a midtreatment assessment after the 10th therapy session. Perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and the interaction between these 2 risk factors did not add incremental variance to the prediction of midtreatment suicide ideation after controlling for age, gender, depression, hopelessness, impulsivity, lifetime suicide attempts, and pretreatment suicide ideation. The best predictor of midtreatment suicide ideation was pretreatment suicide ideation. Results offer only limited support to the assumptions of the interpersonal theory of suicide. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of Decision Support Formulas for the Prediction of Bladder Outlet Obstruction and Prostatic Surgery in Patients With Lower Urinary Tract Symptom/Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Part II, External Validation and Usability Testing of a Smartphone App.

PubMed

Choo, Min Soo; Jeong, Seong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Yoo, Changwon; Jeong, Chang Wook; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June

2017-04-01

We aimed to externally validate the prediction model we developed for having bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and requiring prostatic surgery using 2 independent data sets from tertiary referral centers, and also aimed to validate a mobile app for using this model through usability testing. Formulas and nomograms predicting whether a subject has BOO and needs prostatic surgery were validated with an external validation cohort from Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center between January 2004 and April 2015. A smartphone-based app was developed, and 8 young urologists were enrolled for usability testing to identify any human factor issues of the app. A total of 642 patients were included in the external validation cohort. No significant differences were found in the baseline characteristics of major parameters between the original (n=1,179) and the external validation cohort, except for the maximal flow rate. Predictions of requiring prostatic surgery in the validation cohort showed a sensitivity of 80.6%, a specificity of 73.2%, a positive predictive value of 49.7%, and a negative predictive value of 92.0%, and area under receiver operating curve of 0.84. The calibration plot indicated that the predictions have good correspondence. The decision curve showed also a high net benefit. Similar evaluation results using the external validation cohort were seen in the predictions of having BOO. Overall results of the usability test demonstrated that the app was user-friendly with no major human factor issues. External validation of these newly developed a prediction model demonstrated a moderate level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and high net benefit gains for predicting both having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery. Also a smartphone app implementing the prediction model was user-friendly with no major human factor issue.

Predicting Esophagitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palma, David A., E-mail: david.palma@uwo.ca; Senan, Suresh; Oberije, Cary

Purpose: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) improves survival compared with sequential treatment for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, but it increases toxicity, particularly radiation esophagitis (RE). Validated predictors of RE for clinical use are lacking. We performed an individual-patient-data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant RE. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 1082 patients who underwent CCRT, including patients from Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (2/3 vs 1/3 of patients). Factors predictive of RE (grade ≥2 and grade ≥3) weremore » assessed using logistic modeling, with the concordance statistic (c statistic) used to evaluate the performance of each model. Results: The median radiation therapy dose delivered was 65 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.1 years. Most patients (91%) received platinum-containing CCRT regimens. The development of RE was common, scored as grade 2 in 348 patients (32.2%), grade 3 in 185 (17.1%), and grade 4 in 10 (0.9%). There were no RE-related deaths. On univariable analysis using the training set, several baseline factors were statistically predictive of RE (P<.05), but only dosimetric factors had good discrimination scores (c > .60). On multivariable analysis, the esophageal volume receiving ≥60 Gy (V60) alone emerged as the best predictor of grade ≥2 and grade ≥3 RE, with good calibration and discrimination. Recursive partitioning identified 3 risk groups: low (V60 <0.07%), intermediate (V60 0.07% to 16.99%), and high (V60 ≥17%). With use of the validation set, the predictive model performed inferiorly for the grade ≥2 endpoint (c = .58) but performed well for the grade ≥3 endpoint (c = .66). Conclusions: Clinically significant RE is common, but life-threatening complications occur in <1% of patients. Although several factors are statistically predictive of RE, the V60 alone provides the best predictive ability. Efforts to reduce the V60 should be prioritized, with further research needed to identify and validate new predictive factors.« less

Dimensionality of the 9-item Utrecht Work Engagement Scale revisited: A Bayesian structural equation modeling approach.

PubMed

Fong, Ted C T; Ho, Rainbow T H

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to reexamine the dimensionality of the widely used 9-item Utrecht Work Engagement Scale using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach and Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach. Three measurement models (1-factor, 3-factor, and bi-factor models) were evaluated in two split samples of 1,112 health-care workers using confirmatory factor analysis and BSEM, which specified small-variance informative priors for cross-loadings and residual covariances. Model fit and comparisons were evaluated by posterior predictive p-value (PPP), deviance information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). None of the three ML-based models showed an adequate fit to the data. The use of informative priors for cross-loadings did not improve the PPP for the models. The 1-factor BSEM model with approximately zero residual covariances displayed a good fit (PPP>0.10) to both samples and a substantially lower BIC than its 3-factor and bi-factor counterparts. The BSEM results demonstrate empirical support for the 1-factor model as a parsimonious and reasonable representation of work engagement.

Football experts versus sports economists: Whose forecasts are better?

PubMed

Frick, Bernd; Wicker, Pamela

2016-08-01

Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay-performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions.

Effect of vibration on retention characteristics of screen acquisition systems. [for surface tension propellant acquisition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tegart, J. R.; Aydelott, J. C.

1978-01-01

The design of surface tension propellant acquisition systems using fine-mesh screen must take into account all factors that influence the liquid pressure differentials within the system. One of those factors is spacecraft vibration. Analytical models to predict the effects of vibration have been developed. A test program to verify the analytical models and to allow a comparative evaluation of the parameters influencing the response to vibration was performed. Screen specimens were tested under conditions simulating the operation of an acquisition system, considering the effects of such parameters as screen orientation and configuration, screen support method, screen mesh, liquid flow and liquid properties. An analytical model, based on empirical coefficients, was most successful in predicting the effects of vibration.

Damping in aerospace composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agneni, A.; Balis Crema, L.; Castellani, A.

Experimental results are presented on specimens of carbon and Kevlar fibers in epoxy resin, materials used in many aerospace structures (control surfaces and wings in aircraft, large antennas in spacecraft, etc.). Some experimental methods of estimating damping ratios are first reviewed, either in the time domain or in the frequency domain. Some damping factor estimates from experimental tests are then shown; in order to evaluate the effects of the aerospace environment, damping factors have been obtained in a typical range of temperature, namely between +120 C and -120 C, and in the pressure range from room pressure to 10 exp -6 torr. Finally, a theoretical approach for predicting the bounds of the damping coefficients is shown, and prediction data are compared with experimental results.

A retrospective analysis of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy with segmental renal artery clamping and factors that predict postoperative renal function.

PubMed

Li, Pu; Qin, Chao; Cao, Qiang; Li, Jie; Lv, Qiang; Meng, Xiaoxin; Ju, Xiaobing; Tang, Lijun; Shao, Pengfei

2016-10-01

To evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy (LPN) with segmental renal artery clamping, and to analyse the factors affecting postoperative renal function. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 466 consecutive patients undergoing LPN using main renal artery clamping (group A, n = 152) or segmental artery clamping (group B, n = 314) between September 2007 and July 2015 in our department. Blood loss, operating time, warm ischaemia time (WIT) and renal function were compared between groups. Univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses were applied to assess the correlations of selected variables with postoperative glomerular filtration rate (GFR) reduction. Volumetric data and estimated GFR of a subset of 60 patients in group B were compared with GFR to evaluate the correlation between these functional variables and preserved renal function after LPN. The novel technique slightly increased operating time, WIT and intra-operative blood loss (P < 0.001), while it provided better postoperative renal function (P < 0.001) compared with the conventional technique. The blocking method and tumour characteristics were independent factors affecting GFR reduction, while WIT was not an independent factor. Correlation analysis showed that estimated GFR presented better correlation with GFR compared with kidney volume (R(2) = 0.794 cf. R(2) = 0.199) in predicting renal function after LPN. LPN with segmental artery clamping minimizes warm ischaemia injury and provides better early postoperative renal function compared with clamping the main renal artery. Kidney volume has a significantly inferior role compared with eGFR in predicting preserved renal function. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A structured interview for the assessment of the Five-Factor Model of personality: facet-level relations to the axis II personality disorders.

PubMed

Trull, T J; Widiger, T A; Burr, R

2001-04-01

The Structured Interview for the Five-Factor Model (SIFFM; Trull & Widiger, 1997) is an 120-item semistructured interview that assesses both adaptive and maladaptive features of the personality traits included in the five-factor model of personality, or "Big Five." In this article, we evaluate the ability of SIFFM scores to predict personality disorder symptomatology in a sample of 232 adults (46 outpatients and 186 nonclinical college students). Personality disorder symptoms were assessed using the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-Revised (PDQ-R; Hyler & Rider, 1987). Results indicated that many of the predicted associations between lower-order personality traits and personality disorders were supported. Further, many of these associations held even after controlling for comorbid personality disorder symptoms. These findings may help inform conceptualizations of the personality disorders, as well as etiological theories and treatment.

Community integration after burn injuries.

PubMed

Esselman, P C; Ptacek, J T; Kowalske, K; Cromes, G F; deLateur, B J; Engrav, L H

2001-01-01

Evaluation of community integration is a meaningful outcome criterion after major burn injury. The Community Integration Questionnaire (CIQ) was administered to 463 individuals with major burn injuries. The CIQ results in Total, Home Integration, Social Integration, and Productivity scores. The purposes of this study were to determine change in CIQ scores over time and what burn injury and demographic factors predict CIQ scores. The CIQ scores did not change significantly from 6 to 12 to 24 months postburn injury. Home integration scores were best predicted by sex and living situation; Social Integration scores by marital status; and Productivity scores by functional outcome, burn severity, age, and preburn work factors. The data demonstrate that individuals with burn injuries have significant difficulties with community integration due to burn and nonburn related factors. CIQ scores did not improve over time but improvement may have occurred before the initial 6-month postburn injury follow-up in this study.

Predictors of violent behavior among acute psychiatric patients: clinical study.

PubMed

Amore, Mario; Menchetti, Marco; Tonti, Cristina; Scarlatti, Fabiano; Lundgren, Eva; Esposito, William; Berardi, Domenico

2008-06-01

Violence risk prediction is a priority issue for clinicians working with mentally disordered offenders. The aim of the present study was to determine violence risk factors in acute psychiatric inpatients. The study was conducted in a locked, short-term psychiatric inpatient unit and involved 374 patients consecutively admitted in a 1-year period. Sociodemographic and clinical data were obtained through a review of the medical records and patient interviews. Psychiatric symptoms at admission were assessed using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). Psychiatric diagnosis was formulated using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Past aggressive behavior was evaluated by interviewing patients, caregivers or other collateral informants. Aggressive behaviors in the ward were assessed using the Overt Aggression Scale. Patients who perpetrated verbal and against-object aggression or physical aggression in the month before admission were compared to non-aggressive patients, moreover, aggressive behavior during hospitalization and persistence of physical violence after admission were evaluated. Violent behavior in the month before admission was associated with male sex, substance abuse and positive symptoms. The most significant risk factor for physical violence was a past history of physically aggressive behavior. The persistent physical assaultiveness before and during hospitalization was related to higher BPRS total scores and to more severe thought disturbances. Higher levels of hostility-suspiciousness BPRS scores predicted a change for the worse in violent behavior, from verbal to physical. A comprehensive evaluation of the history of past aggressive behavior and psychopathological variables has important implications for the prediction of violence in psychiatric settings.

Measuring attitudes towards suicide: Preliminary evaluation of an attitude towards suicide scale.

PubMed

Cwik, Jan Christopher; Till, Benedikt; Bieda, Angela; Blackwell, Simon E; Walter, Carolin; Teismann, Tobias

2017-01-01

Our study aimed to validate a previously published scale assessing attitudes towards suicide. Factor structure, convergent and discriminant validity, and predictive validity were investigated. Adult German participants (N=503; mean age=24.74years; age range=18-67years) anonymously completed a set of questionnaires. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and incongruous items were deleted. Subsequently, scale properties of the reduced scale and its construct validity were analyzed. A confirmatory factor analysis was then conducted in an independent sample (N=266; mean age=28.77years; age range=18-88years) to further confirm the factor structure of the questionnaire. Parallel analysis indicated a three-factor solution, which was also supported by confirmatory factor analysis: right to commit suicide, interpersonal gesture and resilience. The subscales demonstrated acceptable construct and discriminant validity. Cronbach's α for the subscales ranged from 0.67 to 0.83, explaining 49.70% of the total variance. Positive attitudes towards suicide proved to be predictive of suicide risk status, providing preliminary evidence for the utility of the scale. Future studies aiming to reproduce the factor structure in a more heterogeneous sample are warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Fat-Free Mass in Kidney Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Størset, Elisabet; von Düring, Marit Elizabeth; Godang, Kristin; Bergan, Stein; Midtvedt, Karsten; Åsberg, Anders

2016-08-01

Individualization of drug doses is essential in kidney transplant recipients. For many drugs, the individual dose is better predicted when using fat-free mass (FFM) as a scaling factor. Multiple equations have been developed to predict FFM based on healthy subjects. These equations have not been evaluated in kidney transplant recipients. The objectives of this study were to develop a kidney transplant specific equation for FFM prediction and to evaluate its predictive performance compared with previously published equations. Ten weeks after transplantation, FFM was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Data from a consecutive cohort of 369 kidney transplant recipients were randomly assigned to an equation development data set (n = 245) or an evaluation data set (n = 124). Prediction equations were developed using linear and nonlinear regression analysis. The predictive performance of the developed equation and previously published equations in the evaluation data set was assessed. The following equation was developed: FFM (kg) = {FFMmax × body weight (kg)/[81.3 + body weight (kg)]} × [1 + height (cm) × 0.052] × [1-age (years) × 0.0007], where FFMmax was estimated to be 11.4 in males and 10.2 in females. This equation provided an unbiased, precise prediction of FFM in the evaluation data set: mean error (ME) (95% CI), -0.71 kg (-1.60 to 0.19 kg) in males and -0.36 kg (-1.52 to 0.80 kg) in females, root mean squared error 4.21 kg (1.65-6.77 kg) in males and 3.49 kg (1.15-5.84 kg) in females. Using previously published equations, FFM was systematically overpredicted in kidney-transplanted males [ME +1.33 kg (0.40-2.25 kg) to +5.01 kg (4.06-5.95 kg)], but not in females [ME -2.99 kg (-4.07 to -1.90 kg) to +3.45 kg (2.29-4.61) kg]. A new equation for FFM prediction in kidney transplant recipients has been developed. The equation may be used for population pharmacokinetic modeling and clinical dose selection in kidney transplant recipients.

Progression of diffuse esophageal spasm to achalasia: incidence and predictive factors.

PubMed

Fontes, L H S; Herbella, F A M; Rodriguez, T N; Trivino, T; Farah, J F M

2013-07-01

The progression of certain primary esophageal motor disorders to achalasia has been documented; however, the true incidence of this decay is still elusive. This study aims to evaluate: (i) the incidence of the progression of diffuse esophageal spasm to achalasia, and (ii) predictive factors to this progression. Thirty-five patients (mean age 53 years, 80% females) with a manometric picture of diffuse esophageal spasm were followed for at least 1 year. Patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease confirmed by pH monitoring or systemic diseases that may affect esophageal motility were excluded. Esophageal manometry was repeated in all patients. Five (14%) of the patients progressed to achalasia at a mean follow-up of 2.1 (range 1-4) years. Demographic characteristics were not predictive of transition to achalasia, while dysphagia (P= 0.005) as the main symptom and the wave amplitude of simultaneous waves less than 50 mmHg (P= 0.003) were statistically significant. In conclusion, the transition of diffuse esophageal spasm to achalasia is not frequent at a 2-year follow-up. Dysphagia and simultaneous waves with low amplitude are predictive factors for this degeneration. © 2012 Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Predictive factors of telemedicine service acceptance and behavioral intention of physicians.

PubMed

Rho, Mi Jung; Choi, In Young; Lee, Jaebeom

2014-08-01

Despite the proliferation of telemedicine technology, telemedicine service acceptance has been slow in actual healthcare settings. The purpose of this research is to develop a theoretical model for explaining the predictive factors influencing physicians' willingness to use telemedicine technology to provide healthcare services. We developed the Telemedicine Service Acceptance model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM) with the inclusion of three predictive constructs from the previously published telemedicine literature: (1) accessibility of medical records and of patients as clinical factors, (2) self-efficacy as an individual factor and (3) perceived incentives as regulatory factors. A survey was conducted, and structural equation modeling was applied to evaluate the empirical validity of the model and causal relationships within the model using the data collected from 183 physicians. Our results confirmed the validity of the original TAM constructs: the perceived usefulness of telemedicine directly impacted the behavioral intention to use it, and the perceived ease of use directly impacted both the perceived usefulness and the behavioral intention to use it. In addition, new predictive constructs were found to have ramifications on TAM variables: the accessibility of medical records and of patients directly impacted the perceived usefulness of telemedicine, self-efficacy had a significant positive effect on both the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness of telemedicine, and perceived incentives were found to be important with respect to the intention to use telemedicine technology. This study demonstrated that the Telemedicine Service Acceptance model was feasible and could explain the acceptance of telemedicine services by physicians. These results identified important factors for increasing the involvement of physicians in telemedicine practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing and validating a model to predict the success of an IHCS implementation: the Readiness for Implementation Model.

PubMed

Wen, Kuang-Yi; Gustafson, David H; Hawkins, Robert P; Brennan, Patricia F; Dinauer, Susan; Johnson, Pauley R; Siegler, Tracy

2010-01-01

To develop and validate the Readiness for Implementation Model (RIM). This model predicts a healthcare organization's potential for success in implementing an interactive health communication system (IHCS). The model consists of seven weighted factors, with each factor containing five to seven elements. Two decision-analytic approaches, self-explicated and conjoint analysis, were used to measure the weights of the RIM with a sample of 410 experts. The RIM model with weights was then validated in a prospective study of 25 IHCS implementation cases. Orthogonal main effects design was used to develop 700 conjoint-analysis profiles, which varied on seven factors. Each of the 410 experts rated the importance and desirability of the factors and their levels, as well as a set of 10 different profiles. For the prospective 25-case validation, three time-repeated measures of the RIM scores were collected for comparison with the implementation outcomes. Two of the seven factors, 'organizational motivation' and 'meeting user needs,' were found to be most important in predicting implementation readiness. No statistically significant difference was found in the predictive validity of the two approaches (self-explicated and conjoint analysis). The RIM was a better predictor for the 1-year implementation outcome than the half-year outcome. The expert sample, the order of the survey tasks, the additive model, and basing the RIM cut-off score on experience are possible limitations of the study. The RIM needs to be empirically evaluated in institutions adopting IHCS and sustaining the system in the long term.

Fall risk: the clinical relevance of falls and how to integrate fall risk with fracture risk.

PubMed

Peeters, G; van Schoor, Natasja M; Lips, Paul

2009-12-01

In old age, 5-10% percent of all falls result in a fracture, and up to 90% of all fractures result from a fall. This article describes the link between fall risk and fracture risk in community-dwelling older persons. Which factors attribute to both the fall risk and the fracture risk? Which falls result in a fracture? Which tools are available to predict falls and fractures? Directions for the use of prediction tools in clinical practice are given. Challenges for future research include further validation of existing prediction tools and evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of treatment after screening.

Instructional Approaches in Kindergarten: What Works for Whom?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiatovich, Tara; Stipek, Deborah

2016-01-01

This study used ECLS-K 1998-1999 data to evaluate whether specific kindergarten teaching practices predicted school-year learning gains differently, depending on children's ethnicity, SES, and fall test scores. Exploratory factor analyses guided the creation of four literacy and five math instruction composites from teachers' reports of their…

Implementation: Measuring and Explaining the Fidelity of CSR Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurki, Anja; Boyle, Andrea; Aladjem, Daniel K.

2006-01-01

Comprehensive school reform (CSR) is only as effective as its implementation. By using data collected for the National Longitudinal Evaluation of Comprehensive School Reform (NLECSR), this article explores the factors that predict CSR model implementation and the ways that CSR model implementation varies. We found little difference in the fidelity…

Increasing the Quality and Value of Conferences, Seminars, and Workshops

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoyt, Jeff E.; Whyte, Chrystine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this best practices article is to provide continuing education administrators with a reliable participant evaluation that measures factors predictive of not only satisfaction, but also perceived value: adequacy of topics, customer service, learning, quality of facilities, image, and quality of presentations, among other variables.…

Demographic and Clinical Correlates of Autism Symptom Domains and Autism Spectrum Diagnosis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazier, Thomas W.; Youngstrom, Eric A.; Embacher, Rebecca; Hardan, Antonio Y.; Constantino, John N.; Law, Paul; Findling, Robert L.; Eng, Charis

2014-01-01

Demographic and clinical factors may influence assessment of autism symptoms. This study evaluated these correlates and also examined whether social communication and interaction and restricted/repetitive behavior provided unique prediction of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis. We analyzed data from 7352 siblings included in the Interactive…

DEVELOPMENT OF A MICROSCALE EMISSION FACTOR MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER (MICROFACPM) FOR PREDICTING REAL TIME MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Health risk evaluation needs precise measurement and modeling of human exposures in microenvironments to support review of current air quality standards. The particulate matter emissions from motor vehicles are a major component of human exposures in urban microenvironments. Cu...

Estimation of wind erosion from construction of a railway in arid northwest China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A state-of-the-art wind erosion simulation model, the Wind Erosion Prediction System and the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s AP-42 emission factors formula, were combined together to evaluate wind-blown dust emissions from various construction units from a railway construction projec...

EVALUATION OF DNA CHIPS (MICROARRAYS) FOR DETERMINING VIRULENCE FACTOR ACTIVITY RELATIONSHIPS (VFARS)

EPA Science Inventory

Computational toxicology is a rapid approach to screening for toxic effects and looking for common outcomes that can result in predictive models. The long term project will result in the development of a database of mRNA responses to known water-borne pathogens. An understanding...

Predicting MBA Student Success and Streamlining the Admissions Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, William R.

2015-01-01

Within this study the author examines factors commonly employed as master of business administration applicant evaluation criteria to see if these criteria are important in determining an applicant's potential for success. The findings indicate that the Graduate Management Admissions Test (GMAT) is not a significant predictor of student success…

Predictors of Children's Prosocial Lie-Telling: Motivation, Socialization Variables, and Moral Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popliger, Mina; Talwar, Victoria; Crossman, Angela

2011-01-01

Children tell prosocial lies for self- and other-oriented reasons. However, it is unclear how motivational and socialization factors affect their lying. Furthermore, it is unclear whether children's moral understanding and evaluations of prosocial lie scenarios (including perceptions of vignette characters' feelings) predict their actual prosocial…

Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients.

PubMed

Custodio, Nilton; Lira, David; Herrera-Perez, Eder; Montesinos, Rosa; Castro-Suarez, Sheila; Cuenca-Alfaro, Jose; Cortijo, Patricia

2016-12-01

Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate model to predict falling in PD patients. Prospective cohort with forty-nine PD patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate predictive performance of the purposed multivariate model. The median of PD duration and UPDRS-III score in the cohort was 6 years and 24 points, respectively. Falls occurred in 18 PD patients (30%). Predictive factors for falling identified by univariate analysis were age, PD duration, physical activity, and scores of UPDRS motor, FOG, ACE, IFS, PFAQ and GDS ( p -value < 0.001), as well as fear of falling score ( p -value = 0.04). The final multivariate model (PD duration, FOG, ACE, and physical activity) showed an AUC = 0.9282 (correctly classified = 89.83%; sensitivity = 92.68%; specificity = 83.33%). This study showed that our multivariate model have a high performance to predict falling in a sample of PD patients.

A study of the stress wave factor technique for evaluation of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, J. C., Jr.; Henneke, E. G., II; Kiernan, M. T.; Grosskopf, P. P.

1989-01-01

The acousto-ultrasonic approach for nondestructive evaluation provides a measurement procedure for quantifying the integrated effect of globally distributed damage characteristic of fiber reinforced composite materials. The evaluation procedure provides a stress wave factor that correlates closely with several material performance parameters. The procedure was investigated for a variety of materials including advanced composites, hybrid structure bonds, adhesive bonds, wood products, and wire rope. The research program focused primarily on development of fundamental understanding and applications advancements of acousto-ultrasonics for materials characterization. This involves characterization of materials for which detection, location, and identification of imperfections cannot at present be analyzed satisfactorily with mechanical performance prediction models. In addition to presenting definitive studies on application potentials, the understanding of the acousto-ultrasonic method as applied to advanced composites is reviewed.

Child, parent and family dysfunction as predictors of outcome in cognitive-behavioral treatment of antisocial children.

PubMed

Kazdin, A E

1995-03-01

The present study examined factors that predicted favorable treatment outcomes among clinically referred conduct problem children (N = 105, ages 7-13) who received cognitive-behavioral treatment. Three domains (severity and breadth of child impairment, parent stress and psychopathology and family dysfunction) assessed at pretreatment were predicted to affect treatment outcome. The results only partially supported the prediction. Less dysfunction in each of the domains predicted who responded favorably to treatment on parent ratings of deviance and prosocial functioning but not on teacher ratings of these outcomes. The findings have implications for identifying youths who respond to available treatments. The results also underscore fundamental questions about the assessment of treatment effects and the criteria for evaluating outcome.

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

Predictors of the patency of self-expandable metallic stents in malignant gastroduodenal obstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Seung Han; Chun, Hoon Jai; Yoo, In Kyung; Lee, Jae Min; Nam, Seung Joo; Choi, Hyuk Soon; Kim, Eun Sun; Keum, Bora; Seo, Yeon Seok; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Lee, Hong Sik; Um, Soon Ho; Kim, Chang Duck

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate the predictive factors of self-expandable metallic stent patency after stent placement in patients with inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction. METHODS: A total of 116 patients underwent stent placements for inoperable malignant gastroduodenal obstruction at a tertiary academic center. Clinical success was defined as acceptable decompression of the obstructive lesion within the malignant gastroduodenal neoplasm. We evaluated patient comorbidities and clinical statuses using the World Health Organization’s scoring system and categorized patient responses to chemotherapy using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria. We analyzed the relationships between possible predictive factors and stent patency. RESULTS: Self-expandable metallic stent placement was technically successful in all patients (100%), and the clinical success rate was 84.2%. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were correlated with a reduction in stent patency [P = 0.006; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.92, 95%CI: 1.36-6.25]. Palliative chemotherapy was statistically associated with an increase in stent patency (P = 0.009; aHR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.10-0.72). CONCLUSION: CEA levels can easily be measured at the time of stent placement and may help clinicians to predict stent patency and determine the appropriate stent procedure. PMID:26290640

Validation of the post-delivery perceived stress inventory.

PubMed

Razurel, Chantal; Kaiser, Barbara; Dupuis, Marc; Antonietti, Jean-Philippe; Sellenet, Catherine; Epiney, Manuela

2014-01-01

This article presents the post-delivery perceived stress inventory (PDPSI) and its psychometric properties. This inventory is unique in that it links the measurement of perceived stress to events experienced during and after delivery. A total of 235 French-speaking, primiparous mothers completed the PDPSI two days after their delivery. To evaluate the predictive validity of the PDPSI on anxiety and depression, participants also completed the EPDS and the STAI two days and six weeks postpartum. The exploratory analysis revealed a 16-item structure divided into five factors: F1: relationship with the child; F2: delivery; F3: fatigue after delivery; F4: breastfeeding; and F5: relationship with the caregivers. The PDPSI demonstrated good internal consistency. Moreover, confirmatory factor analysis produced excellent indices, indicating that the complexity of the PDPSI was taken into account and its fit to the sample. The discriminant analysis showed that the PDPSI was not sensitive to specific changes in the sample making the inventory generalizable to other populations. Predictive validity showed that the scale significantly predicted depression and anxiety in the early postpartum period as well as anxiety six weeks postpartum. Overall, the PDPSI showed excellent psychometric qualities, making it a useful tool for future research-evaluating interventions related to perceived stress during the postpartum period.

History and physical examination findings predictive of testicular torsion: an attempt to promote clinical diagnosis by house staff.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Arun; Cinman, Nadya; Feber, Kevin M; Gitlin, Jordan; Palmer, Lane S

2011-08-01

To standardize the history and physical examination of boys who present with acute scrotum and identify parameters that best predict testicular torsion. Over a 5-month period, a standardized history and physical examination form with 22 items was used for all boys presenting with scrotal pain. Management decisions for radiological evaluation and surgical intervention were based on the results. Data were statistically analyzed in correlation with the eventual diagnosis. Of the 79 boys evaluated, 8 (10.1%) had testicular torsion. On univariate analysis, age, worsening pain, nausea/vomiting, severe pain at rest, absence of ipsilateral cremaster reflex, abnormal testicular position and scrotal skin changes were statistically predictive of torsion. After multivariate analysis and adjusting for confounding effect of other co-existing variables, absence of ipsilateral cremaster reflex (P < 0.001), nausea/vomiting (P < 0.05) and scrotal skin changes (P < 0.001) were the only consistent predictive factors of testicular torsion. An accurate history and physical examination of boys with acute scrotum should be primary in deciding upon further radiographic or surgical evaluation. While several forces have led to less consistent overnight resident staffing, consistent and reliable clinical evaluation of the acute scrotum using a standardized approach should reduce error, improve patient care and potentially reduce health care costs. Copyright © 2011 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Predictors of Music Perception and Appraisal by Adult Cochlear Implant Users

PubMed Central

Gfeller, Kate; Oleson, Jacob; Knutson, John F.; Breheny, Patrick; Driscoll, Virginia; Olszewski, Carol

2009-01-01

The research examined whether performance by adult cochlear implant recipients on a variety of recognition and appraisal tests derived from real-world music could be predicted from technological, demographic, and life experience variables, as well as speech recognition scores. A representative sample of 209 adults implanted between 1985 and 2006 participated. Using multiple linear regression models and generalized linear mixed models, sets of optimal predictor variables were selected that effectively predicted performance on a test battery that assessed different aspects of music listening. These analyses established the importance of distinguishing between the accuracy of music perception and the appraisal of musical stimuli when using music listening as an index of implant success. Importantly, neither device type nor processing strategy predicted music perception or music appraisal. Speech recognition performance was not a strong predictor of music perception, and primarily predicted music perception when the test stimuli included lyrics. Additionally, limitations in the utility of speech perception in predicting musical perception and appraisal underscore the utility of music perception as an alternative outcome measure for evaluating implant outcomes. Music listening background, residual hearing (i.e., hearing aid use), cognitive factors, and some demographic factors predicted several indices of perceptual accuracy or appraisal of music. PMID:18669126

Obtaining ready-to-eat blue corn expanded snacks with anthocyanins using an extrusion process and response surface methodology.

PubMed

Escalante-Aburto, Anayansi; Ramírez-Wong, Benjamín; Torres-Chávez, Patricia Isabel; López-Cervantes, Jaime; Figueroa-Cárdenas, Juan de Dios; Barrón-Hoyos, Jesús Manuel; Morales-Rosas, Ignacio; Ponce-García, Néstor; Gutiérrez-Dorado, Roberto

2014-12-15

Extrusion is an alternative technology for the production of nixtamalized products. The aim of this study was to obtain an expanded nixtamalized snack with whole blue corn and using the extrusion process, to preserve the highest possible total anthocyanin content, intense blue/purple coloration (color b) and the highest expansion index. A central composite experimental design was used. The extrusion process factors were: feed moisture (FM, 15%-23%), calcium hydroxide concentration (CHC, 0%-0.25%) and final extruder temperature (T, 110-150 °C). The chemical and physical properties evaluated in the extrudates were moisture content (MC, %), total anthocyanins (TA, mg·kg(-1)), pH, color (L, a, b) and expansion index (EI). ANOVA and surface response methodology were applied to evaluate the effects of the extrusion factors. FM and T significantly affected the response variables. An optimization step was performed by overlaying three contour plots to predict the best combination region. The extrudates were obtained under the following optimum factors: FM (%) = 16.94, CHC (%) = 0.095 and T (°C) = 141.89. The predicted extrusion processing factors were highly accurate, yielding an expanded nixtamalized snack with 158.87 mg·kg(-1) TA (estimated: 160 mg·kg(-1)), an EI of 3.19 (estimated: 2.66), and color parameter b of -0.44 (estimated: 0.10).

Insulin-like growth factor-1: a possible marker for emotional and cognitive disturbances, and treatment effectiveness in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Levada, Oleg A; Troyan, Alexandra S

2017-01-01

Depression and cognitive dysfunction share a common neuropathological platform. Abnormal neural plasticity in the frontolimbic circuits has been linked to changes in the expression of neurotrophic factors, including IGF-1. These changes may result in clinical abnormalities observed over the course of major depressive disorder (MDD), including cognitive dysfunction. The present review aimed to summarize evidence regarding abnormalities of peripheral IGF-1 in MDD patients and assess a marker and predictive role of the neurotrophin for emotional and cognitive disturbances, and treatment effectiveness. A literature search of the PubMed database was conducted for studies, in which peripheral IGF-1 levels were evaluated. Our analysis revealed four main findings: (1) IGF-1 levels in MDD patients mismatch across the studies, which may arise from various factors, e.g., age, gender, the course of the disease, presence of cognitive impairment, ongoing therapy, or general health conditions; (2) the initial peripheral IGF-1 levels may predict the occurrence of depression in future; (3) peripheral IGF-1 levels may reflect cognitive dysfunction, although the data is limited; (4) it is difficult to evaluate the influence of treatment on IGF-1 levels as there is discrepancy of this growth factor among the studies at baseline, although most of them showed a decrease in IGF-1 levels after treatment.

Optimization of a novel biophysical model using large scale in vivo antisense hybridization data displays improved prediction capabilities of structurally accessible RNA regions

PubMed Central

Vazquez-Anderson, Jorge; Mihailovic, Mia K.; Baldridge, Kevin C.; Reyes, Kristofer G.; Haning, Katie; Cho, Seung Hee; Amador, Paul; Powell, Warren B.

2017-01-01

Abstract Current approaches to design efficient antisense RNAs (asRNAs) rely primarily on a thermodynamic understanding of RNA–RNA interactions. However, these approaches depend on structure predictions and have limited accuracy, arguably due to overlooking important cellular environment factors. In this work, we develop a biophysical model to describe asRNA–RNA hybridization that incorporates in vivo factors using large-scale experimental hybridization data for three model RNAs: a group I intron, CsrB and a tRNA. A unique element of our model is the estimation of the availability of the target region to interact with a given asRNA using a differential entropic consideration of suboptimal structures. We showcase the utility of this model by evaluating its prediction capabilities in four additional RNAs: a group II intron, Spinach II, 2-MS2 binding domain and glgC 5΄ UTR. Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of this approach to other bacterial species by predicting sRNA–mRNA binding regions in two newly discovered, though uncharacterized, regulatory RNAs. PMID:28334800

Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

2014-06-01

Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of control strategies using the benchmark simulation model No1 (BSM1).

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2009-01-01

The objective of this paper is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the predictions of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) No. 1, when comparing four activated sludge control strategies. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to evaluate the uncertainty in the BSM1 predictions, considering the ASM1 bio-kinetic parameters and influent fractions as input uncertainties while the Effluent Quality Index (EQI) and the Operating Cost Index (OCI) are focused on as model outputs. The resulting Monte Carlo simulations are presented using descriptive statistics indicating the degree of uncertainty in the predicted EQI and OCI. Next, the Standard Regression Coefficients (SRC) method is used for sensitivity analysis to identify which input parameters influence the uncertainty in the EQI predictions the most. The results show that control strategies including an ammonium (S(NH)) controller reduce uncertainty in both overall pollution removal and effluent total Kjeldahl nitrogen. Also, control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the effluent nitrate (S(NO)) uncertainty increasing both their economical cost and variability as a trade-off. Finally, the maximum specific autotrophic growth rate (micro(A)) causes most of the variance in the effluent for all the evaluated control strategies. The influence of denitrification related parameters, e.g. eta(g) (anoxic growth rate correction factor) and eta(h) (anoxic hydrolysis rate correction factor), becomes less important when a S(NO) controller manipulating an external carbon source addition is implemented.

Prediction of physical-chemical properties of crude oils by 1H NMR analysis of neat samples and chemometrics.

PubMed

Masili, Alice; Puligheddu, Sonia; Sassu, Lorenzo; Scano, Paola; Lai, Adolfo

2012-11-01

In this work, we report the feasibility study to predict the properties of neat crude oil samples from 300-MHz NMR spectral data and partial least squares (PLS) regression models. The study was carried out on 64 crude oil samples obtained from 28 different extraction fields and aims at developing a rapid and reliable method for characterizing the crude oil in a fast and cost-effective way. The main properties generally employed for evaluating crudes' quality and behavior during refining were measured and used for calibration and testing of the PLS models. Among these, the UOP characterization factor K (K(UOP)) used to classify crude oils in terms of composition, density (D), total acidity number (TAN), sulfur content (S), and true boiling point (TBP) distillation yields were investigated. Test set validation with an independent set of data was used to evaluate model performance on the basis of standard error of prediction (SEP) statistics. Model performances are particularly good for K(UOP) factor, TAN, and TPB distillation yields, whose standard error of calibration and SEP values match the analytical method precision, while the results obtained for D and S are less accurate but still useful for predictions. Furthermore, a strategy that reduces spectral data preprocessing and sample preparation procedures has been adopted. The models developed with such an ample crude oil set demonstrate that this methodology can be applied with success to modern refining process requirements. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

PubMed

Carvajal, Thaddeus M; Viacrusis, Katherine M; Hernandez, Lara Fides T; Ho, Howell T; Amalin, Divina M; Watanabe, Kozo

2018-04-17

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting. Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated. Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model. The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological effects to be the best in predicting the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila. It is also noteworthy that the study also identified relative humidity as an important meteorological factor along with rainfall and temperature that can influence this temporal pattern.

Predictive factors of dropout from inpatient treatment for anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Roux, H; Ali, A; Lambert, S; Radon, L; Huas, C; Curt, F; Berthoz, S; Godart, Nathalie

2016-09-30

Patients with severe Anorexia Nervosa (AN) whose condition is life-threatening or who are not receiving adequate ambulatory care are hospitalized. However, 40 % of these patients leave the hospital prematurely, without reaching the target weight set in the treatment plan, and this can compromise outcome. This study set out to explore factors predictive of dropout from hospital treatment among patients with AN, in the hope of identifying relevant therapeutic targets. From 2009 to 2011, 180 women hospitalized for AN (DSM-IV diagnosis) in 10 centres across France were divided into two groups: those under 18 years (when the decision to discharge belongs to the parents) and those aged 18 years and over (when the patient can legally decide to leave the hospital). Both groups underwent clinical assessment using the Morgan & Russell Global Outcome State questionnaire and the Eating Disorders Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) for assessment of eating disorder symptoms and outcome. Psychological aspects were assessed via the evaluation of anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Socio-demographic data were also collected. A number of factors identified in previous research as predictive of dropout from hospital treatment were tested using stepwise descending Cox regressions. We found that factors predictive of dropout varied according to age groups (being under 18 as opposed to 18 and over). For participants under 18, predictive factors were living in a single-parent family, severe intake restriction as measured on the "dietary restriction" subscale of the Morgan & Russell scale, and a low patient-reported score on the EDE-Q "restraint concerns" subscale. For those over 18, dropout was predicted from a low depression score on the HADS, low level of concern about weight on the EDE-Q subscale, and lower educational status. To prevent dropout from hospitalization for AN, the appropriate therapeutic measures vary according to whether patients are under or over 18 years of age. Besides the therapeutic adjustments required in view of the factors identified, the high dropout rate raises the issue of resorting more frequently to compulsory care measures among adults.

The Interrelationships of Mathematical Precursors in Kindergarten

PubMed Central

Cirino, Paul T.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the interrelations among cognitive precursors across quantitative, linguistic, and spatial attention domains that have been implicated for math achievement in young children. The dimensionality of the quantity precursors was evaluated in 286 Kindergarteners via latent variable techniques, and the contribution of precursors from each domain was established for small sums addition. Results showed a five factor structure for the quantity precursors with the major distinction between nonsymbolic and symbolic tasks. The overall model demonstrated good fit, and strong predictive power (R2 = 55%) for addition number combinations. Linguistic and spatial attention domains showed indirect relationships with outcomes, with their effects mediated by symbolic quantity measures. These results have implications for the measurement of mathematical precursors, and yield promise for predicting future math performance. PMID:21194711

Factors influencing soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion.

PubMed

Maetevorakul, Suhatcha; Viteporn, Smorntree

2016-01-01

Several studies have shown soft tissue profile changes after orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. However, a few studies have described factors influencing the soft tissue changes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors influencing the soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. The subjects comprised 104 Thai patients age 8-16 years who presented Class II Division 1 malocclusions and were treated with different orthodontic modalities comprising cervical headgear, Class II traction and extraction of the four first premolars. The profile changes were evaluated from the lateral cephalograms before and after treatment by means of the X-Y coordinate system. Significant soft tissue profile changes were evaluated by paired t test at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations among significant soft tissue changes and independent variables comprising treatment modality, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were evaluated by stepwise multiple regression analysis at a 0.05 significance level. The multiple regression analysis indicated that different treatment modalities, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were related to the profile changes. The predictive power of these variables on the soft tissue profile changes ranged from 9.9 to 40.3%. Prediction of the soft tissue profile changes following treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion from initial patient morphology, age, sex and types of treatment was complicated and required several variables to explain their variations. Upper lip change in horizontal direction could be found only at the stomion superius and was less predictable than those of the lower lip. Variations in upper lip retraction at the stomion superius were explained by types of treatment (R(2) = 0.099), whereas protrusion of the lower lip at the labrale inferius was correlated with initial inclination of the lower incisor (L1 to NB), jaw relation (ANB angle), lower lip thickness and sex (R(2) = 0.403). Prediction of chin protrusion at the soft tissue pogonion was also low predictable (R(2) = 0.190) depending upon sex, age and initial mandibular plane angle (SN-GoGn). Additionally, age and sex also had mainly effect on change of the soft tissue profile in the vertical direction.

A cohort evaluation on arterial stiffness and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy.

PubMed

Lim, Wai Yee; Saw, Seang Mei; Tan, Kok Hian; Yeo, George S H; Kwek, Kenneth Y C

2012-12-26

Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy are associated with systemic endothelial dysfunction leading to impaired physiological vasodilation. Recent evidence has shown central aortic pressures obtained through pulse wave analysis, at less than 14 weeks of gestation, to be predictive of pre-eclampsia. In light of this, we aimed to evaluate the role of central aortic stiffness in the prediction and discrimination of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy. A cohort study of women with viable, singleton pregnancies at less than 14 weeks of amenorrhoea, and without multiple pregnancies, autoimmune or renal disease, diagnosed with aneuploidy or fetal anomaly will be recruited from a single maternity hospital and followed up till delivery and puerperium. A targeted sample size of 1000 eligible pregnant women will be enrolled into the study from antenatal clinics. Main exposure under study is central aortic pulse pressure using radial pulse wave recording, and the outcomes under follow-up are gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia. Other measures include lifestyle factors such as smoking, physical exercise, psychometric evaluations, vasoactive factors, uterine artery pulsatility index, height and weight measurements. These measures will be repeated over 4 antenatal visits at 11-14, 18-22, 28-32 and above 34 weeks of gestation. Double data entry will be performed on Microsoft Access, and analysis of data will include the use of random effect models and receiver operating characteristic curves on Stata 11.2. The proposed study design will enable a longitudinal evaluation of the central aortic pressure changes as a marker for vascular compliance during pregnancy. As measures are repeated over time, the timing and severity of changes are detectable, and findings may yield important information on how aberrant vascular responses occur and its role in the early detection and prediction of hypertensive disorders.

Evolving hard problems: Generating human genetics datasets with a complex etiology.

PubMed

Himmelstein, Daniel S; Greene, Casey S; Moore, Jason H

2011-07-07

A goal of human genetics is to discover genetic factors that influence individuals' susceptibility to common diseases. Most common diseases are thought to result from the joint failure of two or more interacting components instead of single component failures. This greatly complicates both the task of selecting informative genetic variants and the task of modeling interactions between them. We and others have previously developed algorithms to detect and model the relationships between these genetic factors and disease. Previously these methods have been evaluated with datasets simulated according to pre-defined genetic models. Here we develop and evaluate a model free evolution strategy to generate datasets which display a complex relationship between individual genotype and disease susceptibility. We show that this model free approach is capable of generating a diverse array of datasets with distinct gene-disease relationships for an arbitrary interaction order and sample size. We specifically generate eight-hundred Pareto fronts; one for each independent run of our algorithm. In each run the predictiveness of single genetic variation and pairs of genetic variants have been minimized, while the predictiveness of third, fourth, or fifth-order combinations is maximized. Two hundred runs of the algorithm are further dedicated to creating datasets with predictive four or five order interactions and minimized lower-level effects. This method and the resulting datasets will allow the capabilities of novel methods to be tested without pre-specified genetic models. This allows researchers to evaluate which methods will succeed on human genetics problems where the model is not known in advance. We further make freely available to the community the entire Pareto-optimal front of datasets from each run so that novel methods may be rigorously evaluated. These 76,600 datasets are available from http://discovery.dartmouth.edu/model_free_data/.

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Comparative Evaluation of Arabin Pessary and Cervical Cerclage for the Prevention of Preterm Labor in Asymptomatic Women with High Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Tsikouras, Panagiotis; Anastasopoulos, George; Maroulis, Vasileios; Bothou, Anastasia; Chalkidou, Anna; Deuteraiou, Dorelia; Anthoulaki, Xanthoula; Bourazan, Arzou Halil; Iatrakis, George; Zervoudis, Stefanos; Galazios, Georgios; Inagamova, Lola-Katerina; Csorba, Roland; Teichmann, Alexander-Tobias

2018-01-01

Objective: Preterm labor is one of the most significant obstetric problems associated with high rate of actual and long-term perinatal complications. Despite the creation of scoring systems, uterine activity monitoring, cervical ultrasound and several biochemical markers, the prediction and prevention of preterm labor is still a matter of concern. The aim of this study was to examine cervical findings for the prediction and the comparative use of Arabin pessary or cerclage for the prevention of preterm birth in asymptomatic women with high risk factors for preterm labor. Material and methods: The study group was composed of singleton pregnancies (spontaneously conceived) with high risk factors for preterm labor. Cervical length, dilatation of the internal cervical os and funneling, were estimated with transvaginal ultrasound during the first and the second trimesters of pregnancy. Results: Cervical funneling, during the second trimester of pregnancy, was the most significant factor for the prediction of preterm labor. The use of Arabin cervical pessary was found to be more effective than cerclage in the prolongation of pregnancy. Conclusion: In women at risk for preterm labor, the detection of cervical funneling in the second trimester of pregnancy may help to predict preterm labor and to apply the appropriate treatment for its prevention. Although the use of cervical pessary was found to be more effective than cerclage, more studies are needed to classify the effectiveness of different methods for such prevention. PMID:29670041