Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal composition and root colonization, with weaker influences of plant identity and soil nutrients. These two studies across scales suggest prevailing effects of climate on AM fungal distributions. Thus, incorporating climate when forecasting future ranges of AM fungi will enhance predictions of AM fungal abundance and associated ecosystem functions.

Using Global Climate Data to Inform Long-Term Water Planning Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Water managers throughout the world are working to consider climate change in their long-term water planning processes. The best available information regarding plausible future hydrologic conditions are largely derived from global circulation models and from paleoclimate data. To date there lacks a single approach for (1) utilizing these data in water management planning tools for analysis and (2) evaluating the myriad of possible adaptation options. This talk will describe several approaches being used at RAND to incorporate global projections of climate change into local, regional, and state-wide long-term water planning. It will draw on current work with the California Department of Water Resources and other local Western water agencies, and a recently completed project with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency. Work to date suggests that climate information can be assimilated into local water planning tools to help identify robust climate adaptation water management strategies.

Non-radiative processes dominate land surface signals in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bright, R. M.; Davin, E.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Pongratz, J.; Zhao, K.; Cescatti, A.

2016-12-01

Perturbations to the surface energy budget linked to land cover/land management changes (LCMC) are rarely included in land-climate assessments although they have long been recognized as important drivers of local climate change. At local scales, climate forcings from LCMC depend strongly on changes to surface energy redistribution by various non-radiative mechanisms, dampening or even outweighing the local radiative effect of an albedo change. The extent to which these mechanisms are locally relevant for different types of LCMC across the world remains largely unquantified. Here, we combine extensive records of remote sensing and in-situ observations to quantify local forcings for nine common real-world LCMC perturbations, identifying their underlying physical mechanisms and analyzing their spatial patterns at the global scale. We find that throughout the densely populated regions, non-radiative forcings dominate the local surface temperature response in 8 of 9 LCMC scenarios. Further, the observed local response to re-/afforestation is an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, Western Europe, and Indo-China. Given that the global response to re-/afforestation in these regions is likely a cooling, projects here can be seen as attractive mitigation measures. Our results - gridded to a 1° x 1° resolution - can be directly used to evaluate climate models or compute indicators providing a more comprehensive picture of the trade-offs between local and global climate forcings linked to land sector projects and policies.

Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Eum, Jin-Hee; Kim, Clara T; Kim, Jin Seob; Kim, Yoonhee; Behera, Swadhin K; Hassan, Mohd Nasir; Nealon, Joshua; Chung, Hyenmi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Malaria is a significant public health issue in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as the burden is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. Though PNG's vulnerability to climate change and sensitivity of malaria mosquitoes to weather are well-documented, there are few in-depth epidemiological studies conducted on the potential impacts of climate on malaria incidence in the country. This study explored what and how local weather and global climate variability impact on malaria incidence in five regions of PNG. Time series methods were applied to evaluate the associations of malaria incidence with weather and climate factors, respectively. Local weather factors including precipitation and temperature and global climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ENSO Modoki, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole were considered in analyses. The results showed that malaria incidence was associated with local weather factors in most regions but at the different lag times and in directions. Meanwhile, there were trends in associations with global climate factors by geographical locations of study sites. Overall heterogeneous associations suggest the importance of location-specific approaches in PNG not only for further investigations but also public health interventions in repose to the potential impacts arising from climate change.

A Review of Quantitative Methods for Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Water Infrastructure

EPA Science Inventory

It is widely accepted that global climate change will impact the regional and local climate and alter some aspects of the hydrologic cycle, which in turn can affect the performance of the urban water supply, wastewater and storm water infrastructur4e. How the urban water infrastr...

Can Local Voluntary Environmental Programs "Work"? An Examination of Fort Collins' (Colorado) Climate Wise Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samantha, Mosier; Jonathan, Fisk

2013-05-01

Previous research on voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) frequently assesses the effectiveness of federal, state, and third party programs and why organizations seek to join such programs. Yet, research has yet to evaluate the effectiveness or firm motivation relative to local VEPs. Recognizing this gap, our paper examines the structure and organization of Fort Collins' Climate Wise program, a local VEP. Using a variety of sources, we find that the program has successfully met both short- and long-term goals by persistently self-evaluating and seeking outside financial support. Findings from this analysis can aid in understanding and developing local VEPs elsewhere. Specifically, this initial research suggests that local VEPs need to consider local context and available resources when implementing such programs. Furthermore, it is possible for local VEPs to attract a diverse variety of participating firms by avoiding one-size-fits-all participation levels and by establishing a sense of ownership among partners.

Can local voluntary environmental programs "work"? An examination of Fort Collins' (Colorado) climate wise program.

PubMed

Mosier, Samantha; Samantha, Mosier; Fisk, Jonathan; Jonathan, Fisk

2013-05-01

Previous research on voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) frequently assesses the effectiveness of federal, state, and third party programs and why organizations seek to join such programs. Yet, research has yet to evaluate the effectiveness or firm motivation relative to local VEPs. Recognizing this gap, our paper examines the structure and organization of Fort Collins' Climate Wise program, a local VEP. Using a variety of sources, we find that the program has successfully met both short- and long-term goals by persistently self-evaluating and seeking outside financial support. Findings from this analysis can aid in understanding and developing local VEPs elsewhere. Specifically, this initial research suggests that local VEPs need to consider local context and available resources when implementing such programs. Furthermore, it is possible for local VEPs to attract a diverse variety of participating firms by avoiding one-size-fits-all participation levels and by establishing a sense of ownership among partners.

Localizing Climate Information for Municipal Planning in the Central U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulski, M.; Umphlett, N.; Abdel-Monem, T.; Tang, Z.; Uhlarik, F.

2017-12-01

The impacts of projected climate change are an ongoing concern for municipalities. Planning at the local level often involves investigations of multiple hazards on decadal timescales. Of particular interest to cities are implications of too much or too little water, snow storms, heat waves, and freeze/thaw cycles on infrastructure, health, energy demands and water quality and availability. A two-year project led by the University of Nebraska - Lincoln has brought together scientist and stakeholder for the purpose of informing municipal planning and climate adaptation for 12 cities in the lower Missouri River Basin states (IA, NE, KS, MO). City-specific climate reports have been developed with municipal input to aid local planning efforts. Surveys to assess municipal climate data usage were distributed to all cities with a population greater than 5,000 in the four-state region. In addition, planning efforts for 18 municipalities have been evaluated for nearly 20 cities in the region to investigate local hazard mitigation, emergency, and comprehensive plans. This presentation will outline key outcomes of the project and discuss decision support tools developed in co-production with city planners.

Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.

2016-12-01

In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Background Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Methodology/Principle findings Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks. PMID:28575035

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.

Indigenous Health and Climate Change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

Durability and smart condition assessment of ultra-high performance concrete in cold climates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-31

The goals of this study were to develop ecological ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) with local materials and supplementary cementitious materials and to evaluate the long-term performance of UHPC in cold climates using effective mechanical test...

Building Training Curricula for Accelerating the Use of NOAA Climate Products and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Stevermer, A.; Abshire, W. E.; Beller-Simms, N.; Herring, D.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plays a leading role in U.S. intergovernmental efforts on the Climate Data Initiative and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT). CRT (http://toolkit.climate.gov/) is a valuable resource that provides tools, information, and subject matter expertise to decision makers in various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources and transportation, to help them build resilience to our changing climate. In order to make best use of the toolkit and all the resources within it, a training component is critical. The training section helps building users' understanding of the data, science, and impacts of climate variability and change. CRT identifies five steps in building resilience that includes use of appropriate tools to support decision makers depending on their needs. One tool that can be potentially integrated into CRT is NOAA's Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), which provides access to trusted NOAA data and scientifically-sound analysis techniques for doing regional and local climate studies on climate variability and climate change. However, in order for LCAT to be used effectively, we have found an iterative learning approach using specific examples to train users. For example, for LCAT application in analysis of water resources, we use existing CRT case studies for Arizona and Florida water supply users. The Florida example demonstrates primary sensitivity to climate variability impacts, whereas the Arizona example takes into account longer- term climate change. The types of analyses included in LCAT are time series analysis of local climate and the estimated rate of change in the local climate. It also provides a composite analysis to evaluate the relationship between local climate and climate variability events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American Index, and other modes of climate variability. This paper will describe the development of a training module for use of LCAT and its integration into CRT. An iterative approach was used that incorporates specific examples of decision making while working with subject matter experts within the water supply community. The recommended strategy is to use a "stepping stone" learning structure to build users knowledge of best practices for use of LCAT.

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2015-12-01

While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.

Assessing local climate zones in arid cities: The case of Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chuyuan; Middel, Ariane; Myint, Soe W.; Kaplan, Shai; Brazel, Anthony J.; Lukasczyk, Jonas

2018-07-01

The local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme is a standardization framework to describe the form and function of cities for urban heat island (UHI) studies. This study classifies and evaluates LCZs for two arid desert cities in the Southwestern United States - Phoenix and Las Vegas - following the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) method. Both cities are classified into seven built type LCZs and seven land-cover type LCZs at 100-m resolution using Google Earth, Saga GIS, and Landsat 8 scenes. Average surface cover properties (building fraction, impervious fraction, pervious fraction) and sky view factors of classified LCZs are then evaluated and compared to pre-defined LCZ representative ranges from the literature, and their implications on the surface UHI (SUHI) effect are explained. Results suggest that observed LCZ properties in arid desert environments do not always match the proposed value ranges from the literature, especially with regard to sky view factor (SVF) upper boundaries. Although the LCZ classification scheme was originally designed to describe local climates with respect to air temperature, our analysis shows that much can be learned from investigating land surface temperature (LST) in these zones. This study serves as a substantial new resource laying a foundation for assessing the SUHI in cities using the LCZ scheme, which could inform climate simulations at local and regional scales.

Influence of spatial resolution on precipitation simulations for the central Andes Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachte, Katja; Bendix, Jörg

2013-04-01

The climate of South America is highly influenced by the north-south oriented Andes Mountains. Their complex structure causes modifications of large-scale atmospheric circulations resulting in various mesoscale phenomena as well as a high variability in the local conditions. Due to their height and length the terrain generates distinctly climate conditions between the western and the eastern slopes. While in the tropical regions along the western flanks the conditions are cold and arid, the eastern slopes are dominated by warm-moist and rainy air coming from the Amazon basin. Below 35° S the situation reverses with rather semiarid conditions in the eastern part and temperate rainy climate along southern Chile. Generally, global circulation models (GCMs) describe the state of the global climate and its changes, but are disabled to capture regional or even local features due to their coarse resolution. This is particularly true in heterogeneous regions such as the Andes Mountains, where local driving features, e. g. local circulation systems, highly varies on small scales and thus, lead to a high variability of rainfall distributions. An appropriate technique to overcome this problem and to gain regional and local scale rainfall information is the dynamical downscaling of the global data using a regional climate model (RCM). The poster presents results of the evaluation of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over South America with special focus on the central Andes Mountains of Ecuador. A sensitivity study regarding the cumulus parametrization, microphysics, boundary layer processes and the radiation budget is conducted. With 17 simulations consisting of 16 parametrization scheme combinations and 1 default run a suitable model set-up for climate research in this region is supposed to be evaluated. The simulations were conducted in a two-way nested mode i) to examine the best physics scheme combination for the target and ii) to analyze the impact of spatial resolution and thus, the representation of the terrain on the result.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Belote, R Travis; Carroll, Carlos; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Michalak, Julia; Williams, John W; Williamson, Matthew A; Aplet, Gregory H

2018-06-21

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework

PubMed Central

Vaughan, Catherine; Dessai, Suraje

2014-01-01

Climate services involve the generation, provision, and contextualization of information and knowledge derived from climate research for decision making at all levels of society. These services are mainly targeted at informing adaptation to climate variability and change, widely recognized as an important challenge for sustainable development. This paper reviews the development of climate services, beginning with a historical overview, a short summary of improvements in climate information, and a description of the recent surge of interest in climate service development including, for example, the Global Framework for Climate Services, implemented by the World Meteorological Organization in October 2012. It also reviews institutional arrangements of selected emerging climate services across local, national, regional, and international scales. By synthesizing existing literature, the paper proposes four design elements of a climate services evaluation framework. These design elements include: problem identification and the decision-making context; the characteristics, tailoring, and dissemination of the climate information; the governance and structure of the service, including the process by which it is developed; and the socioeconomic value of the service. The design elements are intended to serve as a guide to organize future work regarding the evaluation of when and whether climate services are more or less successful. The paper concludes by identifying future research questions regarding the institutional arrangements that support climate services and nascent efforts to evaluate them. PMID:25798197

Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework.

PubMed

Vaughan, Catherine; Dessai, Suraje

2014-09-01

Climate services involve the generation, provision, and contextualization of information and knowledge derived from climate research for decision making at all levels of society. These services are mainly targeted at informing adaptation to climate variability and change, widely recognized as an important challenge for sustainable development. This paper reviews the development of climate services, beginning with a historical overview, a short summary of improvements in climate information, and a description of the recent surge of interest in climate service development including, for example, the Global Framework for Climate Services, implemented by the World Meteorological Organization in October 2012. It also reviews institutional arrangements of selected emerging climate services across local, national, regional, and international scales. By synthesizing existing literature, the paper proposes four design elements of a climate services evaluation framework. These design elements include: problem identification and the decision-making context; the characteristics, tailoring, and dissemination of the climate information; the governance and structure of the service, including the process by which it is developed; and the socioeconomic value of the service. The design elements are intended to serve as a guide to organize future work regarding the evaluation of when and whether climate services are more or less successful. The paper concludes by identifying future research questions regarding the institutional arrangements that support climate services and nascent efforts to evaluate them.

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

PubMed Central

Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F.; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation. Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [1] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system. Three types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed. PMID:25856374

Local difference measures between complex networks for dynamical system model evaluation.

PubMed

Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation.Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [8] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system [corrected]. types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hub

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

[Climate and ecologic state of urban areas in Eastern Kazakhstan].

PubMed

Onaev, S T; Grebeneva, O V; Shadetova, A Zh; Kurmangalieva, D S; Balaeva, E A

2011-01-01

Ust-Kamenogorsk territory was demonstrated to have climate peculiarities depending on local relief and unfavorable wind conditions of ventilation, that could promote formation of highly chemically loaded zones. Suggested evaluation methods provide qualitative and quantitative assessment of climate parameters for individual areas of residence. Marking areas according to residence comfort for population, based on analysis of geographic position of the studied territory, in accordance with repetition of meteorologic processes, could specify major factors influencing climate on urban territories of modem Kazakhstan cities.

Exploring Local Approaches to Communicating Global Climate Change Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevermer, A. J.

2002-12-01

Expected future climate changes are often presented as a global problem, requiring a global solution. Although this statement is accurate, communicating climate change science and prospective solutions must begin at local levels, each with its own subset of complexities to be addressed. Scientific evaluation of local changes can be complicated by large variability occurring over small spatial scales; this variability hinders efforts both to analyze past local changes and to project future ones. The situation is further encumbered by challenges associated with scientific literacy in the U.S., as well as by pressing economic difficulties. For people facing real-life financial and other uncertainties, a projected ``1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius'' rise in global temperature is likely to remain only an abstract concept. Despite this lack of concreteness, recent surveys have found that most U.S. residents believe current global warming science, and an even greater number view the prospect of increased warming as at least a ``somewhat serious'' problem. People will often be able to speak of long-term climate changes in their area, whether observed changes in the amount of snow cover in winter, or in the duration of extreme heat periods in summer. This work will explore the benefits and difficulties of communicating climate change from a local, rather than global, perspective, and seek out possible strategies for making less abstract, more concrete, and most importantly, more understandable information available to the public.

A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). Formore » all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.« less

National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies.

PubMed

Heidrich, O; Reckien, D; Olazabal, M; Foley, A; Salvia, M; de Gregorio Hurtado, S; Orru, H; Flacke, J; Geneletti, D; Pietrapertosa, F; Hamann, J J-P; Tiwary, A; Feliu, E; Dawson, R J

2016-03-01

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting climate change impacts on hydrology: the potential role of daily GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

A primary challenge facing resource managers in accommodating climate change is determining the range and uncertainty in regional and local climate projections. This is especially important for assessing changes in extreme events, which will drive many of the more severe impacts of a changed climate. Since global climate models (GCMs) produce output at a spatial scale incompatible with local impact assessment, different techniques have evolved to downscale GCM output so locally important climate features are expressed in the projections. We compared skill and hydrologic projections using two statistical downscaling methods and a distributed hydrology model. The downscaling methods are the constructed analogues (CA) and the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD). CA uses daily GCM output, and can thus capture GCM projections for changing extreme event occurrence, while BCSD uses monthly output and statistically generates historical daily sequences. We evaluate the hydrologic impacts projected using downscaled climate (from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as a surrogate GCM) for the late 20th century with both methods, comparing skill in projecting soil moisture, snow pack, and streamflow at key locations in the Western United States. We include an assessment of a new method for correcting for GCM biases in a hybrid method combining the most important characteristics of both methods.

Monitoring Users' Satisfactions of the NOAA NWS Climate Products and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dixon, S.; Meyers, J. C.

2011-12-01

The NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Services Division (CSD) ensures the relevance of NWS climate products and services. There are several ongoing efforts to identify the level of user satisfaction. One of these efforts includes periodical surveys conducted by Claes Fornell International (CFI) Group using the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), which is "the only uniform, national, cross-industry measure of satisfaction with the quality of goods and services available in the United States" (http://www.cfigroup.com/acsi/overview.asp). The CFI Group conducted NWS Climate Products and Services surveys in 2004 and 2009. In 2010, a prominent routine was established for a periodical assessment of the customer satisfaction. From 2010 onward, yearly surveys will cover major climate services products and services. An expanded suite of climate products will be surveyed every other year. Each survey evaluated customer satisfaction with a range of NWS climate services, data, and products, including Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks, drought monitoring, and ENSO monitoring and forecasts, as well as NWS local climate data and forecast products and services. The survey results provide insight into the NWS climate customer base and their requirements for climate services. They also evaluate whether we are meeting the needs of customers and the ease of their understanding for routine climate services, forecasts, and outlooks. In addition, the evaluation of specific topics, such as NWS forecast product category names, probabilistic nature of climate products, interpretation issues, etc., were addressed to assess how our users interpret prediction terminology. This paper provides an analysis of the following products: hazards, extended-range, long-lead and drought outlooks, El Nino Southern Oscillation monitoring and predictions as well as local climate data products. Two key issues make comparing the different surveys challenging, including the inconsistent suite of characteristics measured and the different number of respondent collected for each survey. Regardless of these two factors contributing to uncertainty of the results, CSD observed general improvement in customer satisfaction. Although, all NWS climate products have competitive scores, the leading ACSIs are for NWS Drought products and climate surface observation products. Overall, the survey results identify requirements for improving existing NWS climate services and introducing new ones. To date, the 2011 survey results have not been evaluated, but will be included in the conference presentation. A key point out of the initial 2011 survey results was that the climate section captured the greatest interest (as measured by number of respondents) of the customers of NWS products and services.

Fostering Climate Change Literacy Through Rural-Urban Collaborations and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.; Mandryk, C.

2012-12-01

Three universities, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, shared expertise and resources to expand the spectrum of climate change topics offered at these institutions. Through this collaboration, four independent but linked modules that incorporate geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing desktop and web-based tools and resources (e.g., NASA, NOAA, USGS, and a variety of universities and organizations) have been developed for use by instructors in all three institutions. Module 1 theme is an introduction to sustainability, climate, with an introduction to remote sensing and online GIS tools. The theme for Module 2 is water resources while Module 3 explores local meteorological data and global climate change models. The last module focuses on food production and independent research building on the urban farm movement in New York City and the agricultural stronghold of Nebraska. The hybrid online and face-face course, Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability, was piloted Fall 2012 in a jointly-taught course offered through UNL and Brooklyn College. The online portion was offered through the CAMEL Climate Change website to foster interactions between the rural Nebraska and urban New York City students. A major objective of the course materials is to foster rural-urban student exchanges while motivating students to make connections between climate change and the potential impacts on health, food, and water in their local communities, the nation and around the world. The research component of the project focuses on understanding the importance of spatial literacy in climate change understanding, and is supported by assessment instruments designed specifically for this course. In addition, the formal evaluation will determine whether our rural-urban, local-global approach will empower students to better understand the causes and impacts of climate change.

Thermoregulation of two sympatric species of horned lizards in the Chihuahuan Desert and their local extinction risk.

PubMed

Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A; Gadsden, Héctor; Rosen, Philip C; Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-De la Cruz, Fausto R

2015-02-01

Thermoregulatory studies of ectothermic organisms are an important tool for ecological physiology, evolutionary ecology and behavior, and recently have become central for evaluating and predicting global climate change impacts. Here, we present a novel combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to examine body temperature regulation, habitat thermal quality, and hours of thermal restriction on the activity of two sympatric, aridlands horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum and Phrynosoma modestum) at three contrasting Chihuahuan Desert sites in Mexico. Using these physiological data, we estimate local extinction risk under predicted climate change within their current geographical distribution. We followed the Hertz et al. (1993, Am. Nat., 142, 796-818) protocol for evaluating thermoregulation and the Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328, 894-899) eco-physiological model of extinction under climatic warming. Thermoregulatory indices suggest that both species thermoregulate effectively despite living in habitats of low thermal quality, although high environmental temperatures restrict the activity period of both species. Based on our measurements, if air temperature rises as predicted by climate models, the extinction model projects that P. cornutum will become locally extinct at 6% of sites by 2050 and 18% by 2080 and P. modestum will become extinct at 32% of sites by 2050 and 60% by 2080. The method we apply, using widely available or readily acquired thermal data, along with the modeling, appeared to identify several unique ecological traits that seemingly exacerbate climate sensitivity of P. modestum. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the late holocene.

PubMed

Gavin, Daniel G; Hu, Feng Sheng; Lertzman, Kenneth; Corbett, Peter

2006-07-01

Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here stand-scale (<100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from a region are essential if climate-fire relations are to be reliably described.

Multidisciplinary hydrologic investigations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, William W.

1990-01-01

Future climatic conditions and tectonic processes have the potential to cause significant changes of the hydrologic system in the southern Great Basin, where a nuclear-waste repository is proposed for construction above the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Geothermal anomalies in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain probably result from the local and regional transport of heat by ground-water flow. Regionally and locally irregular patterns of hydraulic potential, local marsh and pond deposits, and calcite veins in faults and fractures probably are related principally to climatically imposed hydrologic conditions within the geologic and topographic framework. However, tectonic effects on the hydrologic system have also been proposed as the causes of these features, and existing data limitations preclude a full evaluation of these competing hypotheses. A broad program that integrates many disciplines of earth science is required in order to understand the relation of hydrology to past, present and future climates and tectonism.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change. PMID:26295478

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

PubMed

Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

Population genetics and adaptation to climate along elevation gradients in invasive Solidago canadensis.

PubMed

Moran, Emily V; Reid, Andrea; Levine, Jonathan M

2017-01-01

Gene flow between populations may either support local adaptation by supplying genetic variation on which selection may act, or counteract it if maladapted alleles arrive faster than can be purged by selection. Although both such effects have been documented within plant species' native ranges, how the balance of these forces influences local adaptation in invasive plant populations is less clear, in part because introduced species often have lower genetic variation initially but also tend to have good dispersal abilities. To evaluate the extent of gene flow and adaptation to local climate in invasive populations of Solidago canadensis, and the implications of this for range expansion, we compared population differentiation at microsatellite and chloroplast loci for populations across Switzerland and assessed the effect of environmental transfer distance using common gardens. We found that while patterns of differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggested that populations are connected through extensive pollen and seed movement, common-garden plants nonetheless exhibited modest adaptation to local climate conditions. Growth rate and flower production declined with climatic distance from a plant's home site, with clones from colder home sites performing better at or above the range limit. Such adaptation in invasive species is likely to promote further spread, particularly under climate change, as the genotypes positioned near the range edge may be best able to take advantage of lengthening growing seasons to expand the range.

Habitat associations of species show consistent but weak responses to climate

PubMed Central

Suggitt, Andrew J.; Stefanescu, Constantí; Páramo, Ferran; Oliver, Tom; Anderson, Barbara J.; Hill, Jane K.; Roy, David B.; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.

2012-01-01

Different vegetation types can generate variation in microclimates at local scales, potentially buffering species from adverse climates. To determine if species could respond to such microclimates under climatic warming, we evaluated whether ectothermic species (butterflies) can exploit favourable microclimates and alter their use of different habitats in response to year-to-year variation in climate. In both relatively cold (Britain) and warm (Catalonia) regions of their geographical ranges, most species shifted into cooler, closed habitats (e.g. woodland) in hot years, and into warmer, open habitats (e.g. grassland) in cooler years. Additionally, three-quarters of species occurred in closed habitats more frequently in the warm region than in the cool region. Thus, species shift their local distributions and alter their habitat associations to exploit favourable microclimates, although the magnitude of the shift (approx. 1.3% of individuals from open to shade, per degree Celsius) is unlikely to buffer species from impacts of regional climate warming. PMID:22491762

MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.

2009-09-01

The European FP7 project MEGAPOLI: ‘Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation' (http://megapoli.info), started in October 2008, brings together 27 leading European research groups from 11 countries, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from countries outside Europe to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main MEGAPOLI objectives are: 1. to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality, 2. to quantify feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change, 3. to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities. In order to achieve these objectives the following tasks are realizing: • Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data, • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level, continuing to the city, regional and global scales, • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes, • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes, • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate, • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality, • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality, • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies, • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change, • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions. We follow a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate and global atmospheric chemistry. The project focuses on the multi-scale modelling of interacting meteorology and air quality, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. Some of the links between megacities, air quality and climate are reasonably well-understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links is the focus of MEGAPOLI. The current status and modeling results after the first project year on examples of Paris and other European megacities are discussed.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

2012-12-01

The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key Influentials described themselves as concerned about climate change, they believed only 10% of their peers were equally concerned. Results from a public opinion survey of 1001 San Diego residents exhibited two clear trends: San Diegans were consistently more attuned and concerned about climate change and its impacts than nationwide average; and similar to the KI findings, they do not believe others are as concerned as they are. Further, mediation analysis of results supported TIMSI, showing that climate change education that promotes efficacy, identity and values endorsed by a concerned community are most likely to result in engagement in mitigation and adaptive behaviors. All CCEP-I activities informed and directed the design of our Phase II Strategic plan and will provide baseline data for assessing changes that occur as we implement the educational plan. Implementation strategies for the next Phase will emphasize (1) presenting local climate science and unique climate impacts, (2) working with Key Influentials in diverse ways, including educational both formal and informal dialogues for this non-traditional audience, developing climate education messages to be delivered by KIs to their peers and their communities, and engaging certain KIs to be the portal to their constituents; and (3) using social media to connect educators and their audiences.

The Portuguese Climate Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Sandra; Deus, Ricardo; Nogueira, Miguel; Viterbo, Pedro; Miranda, Miguel; Antunes, Sílvia; Silva, Alvaro; Miranda, Pedro

2016-04-01

The Portuguese Local Warming Website (http://portaldoclima.pt) has been developed in order to support the society in Portugal in preparing for the adaptation to the ongoing and future effects of climate change. The climate portal provides systematic and easy access to authoritative scientific data ready to be used by a vast and diverse user community from different public and private sectors, key players and decision makers, but also to high school students, contributing to the increase in knowledge and awareness on climate change topics. A comprehensive set of regional climate variables and indicators are computed, explained and graphically presented. Variables and indicators were built in agreement with identified needs after consultation of the relevant social partners from different sectors, including agriculture, water resources, health, environment and energy and also in direct cooperation with the Portuguese National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (ENAAC) group. The visual interface allows the user to dynamically interact, explore, quickly analyze and compare, but also to download and import the data and graphics. The climate variables and indicators are computed from state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) simulations (e.g., CORDEX project), at high space-temporal detail, allowing to push the limits of the projections down to local administrative regions (NUTS3) and monthly or seasonal periods, promoting local adaptation strategies. The portal provides both historical data (observed and modelled for the 1971-2000 period) and future climate projections for different scenarios (modelled for the 2011-2100 period). A large effort was undertaken in order to quantify the impacts of the risk of extreme events, such as heavy rain and flooding, droughts, heat and cold waves, and fires. Furthermore the different climate scenarios and the ensemble of RCM models, with high temporal (daily) and spatial (~11km) detail, is taken advantage in order to quantify a plausible evolution of climate impacts and its uncertainties. Clear information on the data value and limitations is also provided. The portal is expected to become a reference tool for evaluation of impacts and vulnerabilities due to climate change, increased awareness and promotion of local adaptation and sustainable development in Portugal. The Portuguese Local Warming Website is part of the ADAPT programme, and is co-funded by the EEA financial mechanism and the Portuguese Carbon Fund.

Prominent Midlatitude Circulation Signature in High Asia's Surface Climate During Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mölg, Thomas; Maussion, Fabien; Collier, Emily; Chiang, John C. H.; Scherer, Dieter

2017-12-01

High Asia has experienced strong environmental changes in recent decades, as evident in records of glaciers, lakes, tree rings, and vegetation. The multiscale understanding of the climatic drivers, however, is still incomplete. In particular, few systematic assessments have evaluated to what degree, if at all, the midlatitude westerly circulation modifies local surface climates in the reach of the Indian Summer Monsoon. This paper shows that a southward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerlies contributes significantly to climate variability in the core monsoon season (July-September) by two prominent dipole patterns at the surface: cooling in the west of High Asia contrasts with warming in the east, while moist anomalies in the east and northwest occur with drying along the southwestern margins. Circulation anomalies help to understand the dipoles and coincide with shifts in both the westerly wave train and the South Asian High, which imprint on air mass advection and local energy budgets. The relation of the variabilities to a well-established index of midlatitude climate dynamics allows future research on climate proxies to include a fresh hypothesis for the interpretation of environmental changes.

Evaluating the climate effects of reforestation in New England using a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model multiphysics ensemble

Treesearch

E.A. Burakowski; S.V. Ollinger; G.B. Bonan; C.P. Wake; J.E. Dibb; D.Y. Hollinger

2016-01-01

The New England region of the northeastern United States has a land use history characterized by forest clearing for agriculture and other uses during European colonization and subsequent reforestation following widespread farm abandonment. Despite these broad changes, the potential influence on local and regional climate has received relatively little attention. This...

Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer; John Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Nina K. Lany; Anne M. Socci; Matthew A. Vadeboncoeur; Paul Schaberg; Geoffrey F. Wilson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Christine L. Goodale; Mark B. Green; Steven P. Hamburg; Chris E. Johnson; Myron J. Mitchell; Jennifer L. Morse; Linda H. Pardo; Nicholas L. Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects...

A Biophysical Model for Hawaiian Coral Reefs: Coupling Local Ecology, Larval Transport and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, M. R.

2016-02-01

Simulative models of reef ecosystems have been used to evaluate ecological responses to a myriad of disturbance events, including fishing pressure, coral bleaching, invasion by alien species, and nutrient loading. The Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool (CORSET), has been developed and instantiated for both the Meso-American Reef (MAR) and South China Sea (SCS) regions. This model is novel in that it accounts for the many scales at which reef ecosystem processes take place; is comprised of a "bottom-up" structure wherein complex behaviors are not pre-programmed, but emergent and highly portable to new systems. Local-scale dynamics are coupled across regions through larval connectivity matrices, derived sophisticated particle transport simulations that include key elements of larval behavior. By this approach, we are able to directly evaluate some of the potential consequences of larval connectivity patterns across a range of spatial scales and under multiple climate scenarios. This work develops and applies the CORSET (Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool) to the Main Hawaiian Islands under a suite of climate and ecological scenarios. We introduce an adaptation constant into reef-building coral dynamics to simulate observed resiliencies to bleaching events. This presentation will share results from the model's instantiation under two Resource Concentration Pathway climate scenarios, with emphasis upon larval connectivity dynamics, emergent coral tolerance to increasing thermal anomalies, and patterns of spatial fishing closures. Results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, thermal tolerance and herbivore removal will have synergistic effects on reef resilience.

A new statistical tool for NOAA local climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Hollingshead, A.

2011-12-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) is evolving out of a need to support and enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) field offices' ability to efficiently access, manipulate, and interpret local climate data and characterize climate variability and change impacts. LCAT will enable NOAA's staff to conduct regional and local climate studies using state-of-the-art station and reanalysis gridded data and various statistical techniques for climate analysis. The analysis results will be used for climate services to guide local decision makers in weather and climate sensitive actions and to deliver information to the general public. LCAT will augment current climate reference materials with information pertinent to the local and regional levels as they apply to diverse variables appropriate to each locality. The LCAT main emphasis is to enable studies of extreme meteorological and hydrological events such as tornadoes, flood, drought, severe storms, etc. LCAT will close a very critical gap in NWS local climate services because it will allow addressing climate variables beyond average temperature and total precipitation. NWS external partners and government agencies will benefit from the LCAT outputs that could be easily incorporated into their own analysis and/or delivery systems. Presently we identified five existing requirements for local climate: (1) Local impacts of climate change; (2) Local impacts of climate variability; (3) Drought studies; (4) Attribution of severe meteorological and hydrological events; and (5) Climate studies for water resources. The methodologies for the first three requirements will be included in the LCAT first phase implementation. Local rate of climate change is defined as a slope of the mean trend estimated from the ensemble of three trend techniques: (1) hinge, (2) Optimal Climate Normals (running mean for optimal time periods), (3) exponentially-weighted moving average. Root mean squared error is used to determine the best fit of trend to the observations with the least error. The studies of climate variability impacts on local extremes use composite techniques applied to various definitions of local variables: from specified percentiles to critical thresholds. Drought studies combine visual capabilities of Google maps with statistical estimates of drought severity indices. The process of development will be linked to local office interactions with users to ensure the tool will meet their needs as well as provide adequate training. A rigorous internal and tiered peer-review process will be implemented to ensure the studies are scientifically-sound that will be published and submitted to the local studies catalog (database) and eventually to external sources, such as the Climate Portal.

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

Precipitation Indices as a Tool for Climate-Resilient Development in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2016-12-01

The local people living in the mountains of the Ancash Department in Peru have noticed changes in their water supply as climate change has altered precipitation patterns. They are seeking adaptation solutions to help guarantee the reliability of their water supply, but there has been very little analysis of historical data to evaluate and justify these adaptation solutions. In addition, Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance now requires that climate change be part of the vulnerability assessment for all public investment project proposals, but there are currently no tools or methods of data analysis for including climate change in vulnerability assessments. Compounding the difficulties of considering climate change in the sustainability of development projects is the scarcity of climate data in the region and the difficulty of accessing existing data. To counteract this problem, the Peruvian government recommends using local people's perceptions of change as a proxy for gauged climate data. This work focuses on precipitation data analysis in the mountains of Ancash, Peru. The objectives of this analysis were to determine the accuracy of the local population's perceptions of climate change and to investigate how changes in precipitation patterns might impact public investment projects. The precipitation data analysis was compared to a local study of perceptions of change to determine whether or not these perceptions might be used in lieu of gauged climate data. It appears that people's perceptions of precipitation trends do not accurately reflect the trends observed in the gauged data. The methods of analysis were designed so that the results may be useful for public investment projects with a particular emphasis on agricultural projects. The data were analyzed for trends, seasonal patterns and variability. Dry spells were examined, and the results indicate that droughts during the rainy season have become more frequent and of longer duration. This could have significant impact on agricultural projects. It is likely that the current practice of relying exclusively on wet season rainfall to meet crop water requirements may not be sustainable in the future. Further analysis of climate data is needed to generate a regional climatic characterization that can be used for climate-resilient development projects.

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

2015-01-01

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

PubMed

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

The observed cooling effect of desert blooms based on high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bin; Huang, Ling; Liu, Junjie; Wang, Haiyan; Lż, Aifeng; Jiang, Weiguo; Chen, Ziyue

2017-05-01

Desert greening through planting or irrigation is a potential approach to mitigate desertification and climate warming, but its influence on regional climate is unclear due to scarcity of observations. "Desert blooms," which are natural phenomena usually associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, regularly occur in the world's driest desert, the Atacama Desert. This sudden conversion of land cover likely has a large impact on regional climate through alteration of local energy budgets and provides a unique opportunity to study the potential climatic and environmental consequences of desert greening. Here we evaluated the land surface effects of blooms in the Atacama Desert using vegetation and climate data acquired from remote sensing. The rapid vegetation growth during blooms led to an increase in evapotranspiration and a decrease in albedo. These two processes caused a 0.31°C ± 0.05°C decrease in daytime land surface temperature. During nighttime, we observed a 0.02°C ± 0.02°C increase in land surface temperature due to enhanced heat capacity associated with blooms. This asymmetric diurnal variation in land surface temperature produced a net decrease in daily land surface temperature of 0.29°C ± 0.07°C. Our observations demonstrate the potential benefits of desert blooms on local climate. Results from this study also provide new evidence for plausible climate consequences expected from local "desert greening" strategies.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Results from the VALUE perfect predictor experiment: process-based evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Soares, Pedro; Hertig, Elke; Brands, Swen; Huth, Radan; Cardoso, Rita; Kotlarski, Sven; Casado, Maria; Pongracz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit

2016-04-01

Until recently, the evaluation of downscaled climate model simulations has typically been limited to surface climatologies, including long term means, spatial variability and extremes. But these aspects are often, at least partly, tuned in regional climate models to match observed climate. The tuning issue is of course particularly relevant for bias corrected regional climate models. In general, a good performance of a model for these aspects in present climate does therefore not imply a good performance in simulating climate change. It is now widely accepted that, to increase our condidence in climate change simulations, it is necessary to evaluate how climate models simulate relevant underlying processes. In other words, it is important to assess whether downscaling does the right for the right reason. Therefore, VALUE has carried out a broad process-based evaluation study based on its perfect predictor experiment simulations: the downscaling methods are driven by ERA-Interim data over the period 1979-2008, reference observations are given by a network of 85 meteorological stations covering all European climates. More than 30 methods participated in the evaluation. In order to compare statistical and dynamical methods, only variables provided by both types of approaches could be considered. This limited the analysis to conditioning local surface variables on variables from driving processes that are simulated by ERA-Interim. We considered the following types of processes: at the continental scale, we evaluated the performance of downscaling methods for positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic ridge and blocking situations. At synoptic scales, we considered Lamb weather types for selected European regions such as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom, the Iberian Pensinsula or the Alps. At regional scales we considered phenomena such as the Mistral, the Bora or the Iberian coastal jet. Such process-based evaluation helps to attribute biases in surface variables to underlying processes and ultimately to improve climate models.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

2015-04-01

An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints under which they make their decisions, and the non-public institutions of support that are available to them. We then interpret this complex reality in terms of the demand for science-based climate products and analyze the channels through which such climate support must pass, thus linking demand assessment with the scientific capacity to create appropriate decision support tools. In summary, the approach we employ is: 1) Demand-driven, beginning with a knowledge of the impacts of climate variability and change upon targeted populations, 2) Focused on vulnerability and resilience, which requires an understanding of broader networks of institutional actors who contribute to the adaptive capacity of vulnerable peoples, 3) Needs-based in that the climate needs matrix set priorities for the assessment of relevant climate products, 4) Dynamic in that the producers of climate products are involved at the point of demand assessment and can respond directly to stated needs, 5) Reflective in that the impacts of climate product interventions are subject to monitoring and evaluation throughout the process. Methods, approaches and preliminary results of our work in the Caribbean will be presented.

Minimizing irrigation water demand: An evaluation of shifting planting dates in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Rivera, Ashley; Gunda, Thushara; Hornberger, George M

2018-05-01

Climate change coupled with increasing demands for water necessitates an improved understanding of the water-food nexus at a scale local enough to inform farmer adaptations. Such assessments are particularly important for nations with significant small-scale farming and high spatial variability in climate, such as Sri Lanka. By comparing historical patterns of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) to rice planting records, we estimate that shifting rice planting dates to earlier in the season could yield water savings of up to 6%. Our findings demonstrate the potential of low-cost adaptation strategies to help meet crop production demands in water-scarce environments. This local-scale assessment of IWRs in Sri Lanka highlights the value of using historical data to inform agricultural management of water resources when high-skilled forecasts are not available. Given national policies prioritizing in-country production and farmers' sensitivities to water stress, decision-makers should consider local degrees of climate variability in institutional design of irrigation management structures.

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

PubMed Central

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

PubMed

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Marysa

Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts.

Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock production, grasses. Our results suggest that even in the Gobi desert-steppe, where inter-annual variations in climate and vegetation production are high, formal community-based management institutions may play an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems.

Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

PubMed

Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

2015-11-01

Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Relative Importance of Spatial and Local Environmental Factors in Determining Beetle Assemblages in the Inner Mongolia Grassland.

PubMed

Yu, Xiao-Dong; Lü, Liang; Wang, Feng-Yan; Luo, Tian-Hong; Zou, Si-Si; Wang, Cheng-Bin; Song, Ting-Ting; Zhou, Hong-Zhang

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to increase understanding of the relative importance of the input of geographic and local environmental factors on richness and composition of epigaeic steppe beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae and Tenebrionidae) along a geographic (longitudinal/precipitation) gradient in the Inner Mongolia grassland. Specifically, we evaluate the associations of environmental variables representing climate and environmental heterogeneity with beetle assemblages. Beetles were sampled using pitfall traps at 25 sites scattered across the full geographic extent of the study biome in 2011-2012. We used variance partitioning techniques and multi-model selection based on the Akaike information criterion to assess the relative importance of the spatial and environmental variables on beetle assemblages. Species richness and abundance showed unimodal patterns along the geographic gradient. Together with space, climate variables associated with precipitation, water-energy balance and harshness of climate had strong explanatory power in richness pattern. Abundance pattern showed strongest association with variation in temperature and environmental heterogeneity. Climatic factors associated with temperature and precipitation variables and the interaction between climate with space were able to explain a substantial amount of variation in community structure. In addition, the turnover of species increased significantly as geographic distances increased. We confirmed that spatial and local environmental factors worked together to shape epigaeic beetle communities along the geographic gradient in the Inner Mongolia grassland. Moreover, the climate features, especially precipitation, water-energy balance and temperature, and the interaction between climate with space and environmental heterogeneity appeared to play important roles on controlling richness and abundance, and species compositions of epigaeic beetles.

Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baobao; van der Linden, Sander; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Howe, Peter D.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2018-05-01

Social science scholars routinely evaluate the efficacy of diverse climate frames using local convenience or nationally representative samples1-5. For example, previous research has focused on communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, which has been identified as a `gateway' cognition to other key beliefs about the issue6-9. Importantly, although these efforts reveal average public responsiveness to particular climate frames, they do not describe variation in message effectiveness at the spatial and political scales relevant for climate policymaking. Here we use a small-area estimation method to map geographical variation in public responsiveness to information about the scientific consensus as part of a large-scale randomized national experiment (n = 6,301). Our survey experiment finds that, on average, public perception of the consensus increases by 16 percentage points after message exposure. However, substantial spatial variation exists across the United States at state and local scales. Crucially, responsiveness is highest in more conservative parts of the country, leading to national convergence in perceptions of the climate science consensus across diverse political geographies. These findings not only advance a geographical understanding of how the public engages with information about scientific agreement, but will also prove useful for policymakers, practitioners and scientists engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The climate-related decisions that society will confront over the coming decades will require an informed and engaged public and an education system that provides students with the knowledge to make informed choices. Although nearly all Americans have now heard of climate change, many have yet to understand the full implications of the issue and the opportunities and risks that lie in the solutions. Nonetheless, national surveys demonstrate a clear public desire for more information about climate change and how it might affect local communities. A majority of Americans want the government to take action in response to climate change and are willing to take action themselves. Although communicating about climate change and choices is vitally important, it can be difficult. This report summarizes some simple guidelines for more effective communications.

10 CFR 455.132 - State evaluation of requests for severe hardship assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... State plan pursuant to § 455.20(x). Secondary criteria such as climate, fuel cost and fuel availability... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false State evaluation of requests for severe hardship... SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND BUILDINGS OWNED BY UNITS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC CARE INSTITUTIONS State...

10 CFR 455.132 - State evaluation of requests for severe hardship assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... State plan pursuant to § 455.20(x). Secondary criteria such as climate, fuel cost and fuel availability... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false State evaluation of requests for severe hardship... SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND BUILDINGS OWNED BY UNITS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC CARE INSTITUTIONS State...

10 CFR 455.132 - State evaluation of requests for severe hardship assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... State plan pursuant to § 455.20(x). Secondary criteria such as climate, fuel cost and fuel availability... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false State evaluation of requests for severe hardship... SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND BUILDINGS OWNED BY UNITS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC CARE INSTITUTIONS State...

10 CFR 455.132 - State evaluation of requests for severe hardship assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... State plan pursuant to § 455.20(x). Secondary criteria such as climate, fuel cost and fuel availability... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false State evaluation of requests for severe hardship... SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND BUILDINGS OWNED BY UNITS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC CARE INSTITUTIONS State...

10 CFR 455.132 - State evaluation of requests for severe hardship assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... State plan pursuant to § 455.20(x). Secondary criteria such as climate, fuel cost and fuel availability... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false State evaluation of requests for severe hardship... SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS AND BUILDINGS OWNED BY UNITS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC CARE INSTITUTIONS State...

Using narratives to motivate climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Bremer, Scott; Blanchard, Anne

2015-04-01

This paper presents the lessons learnt by the climate scientists within an interdisciplinary research project called 'TRACKS': Transforming climate knowledge with and for society. The project uses the climate narratives of local people in northeast Bangladesh as a basis for mobilizing high quality climate knowledge for adaptation. To ensure this high quality climate information, the project demands an interdisciplinary approach. This project is therefore a broad, but tight collaboration between climate science and perspectives from social science and the humanities. For the climate scientists involved, the aim was to do research that would provide local people with climate information that would hopefully aid adaptation. The climate research design had to consider the perceptions of the local people in northeast Bangladesh, and what aspects of the local climate that they thought were important. For the climate scientists to gain an appropriate understanding, they were fully integrated into the whole narrative research process. The different disciplines cooperate fully in all aspects of the TRACKS project. The climate scientists were involved in planning the narrative interview survey about weather and how it impacts the lives of local people in northeast Bangladesh. The climate scientists participated in a workshop with social science colleagues from Bangladesh and Norway, to design the research questions, the interview framework, and the data management plan. The climate scientists then travelled to Bangladesh with social scientist colleagues to observe and discuss ten pilot interviews with local people, and to take part in two 'stakeholder-mapping' workshops. On the basis of these interviews and workshops, the climate scientists arranged an interdisciplinary workshop where all the project's researchers designed the climate science research questions together. The climate research questions have therefore been built around a first-hand interdisciplinary experience of the situation in northeast Bangladesh. At no point did we decide on the pertinent climatic issues independently of the local people. The success of this interdisciplinary approach so far has depended on time, patience, and humility. In this presentation, we present the narrative approach we have initiated in TRACKS. We will look at some of local climate narratives from the full-scale survey, as well as the challenges and the research questions that resulted from the process. We will also discuss future perspectives of how we re-integrate the new climate science into the dialogue with the local people.

Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment: Building a Framework to Track Physical and Social Indicators of Climate Change Across Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

2016-12-01

Assessments inform regional and local climate change governance and provide the critical scientific basis for U.S. climate policy. Despite the centrality of scientific information to public discourse and decision making, comprehensive assessments of climate change drivers, impacts, and the vulnerability of human and ecological systems at regional or local scales are often conducted on an ad hoc basis. Methods for sustained assessment and communication of scientific information are diverse and nascent. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) is a collaborative effort to assess climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). In 2012, PIRCA released the first comprehensive report summarizing the state of scientific knowledge about climate change in the region as a technical input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A multi-method evaluation of PIRCA outputs and delivery revealed that the vast majority of key stakeholders view the report as extremely credible and use it as a resource. The current study will present PIRCA's approach to establishing physical and social indicators to track on an ongoing basis, starting with the Republic of the Marshall Islands as an initial location of focus for providing a cross-sectoral indicators framework. Identifying and tracking useful indicators is aimed at sustaining the process of knowledge coproduction with decision makers who seek to better understand the climate variability and change and its impacts on Pacific Island communities.

Apache Open Climate Workbench: Building Open Source Climate Science Tools and Community at the Apache Software Foundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, M.; Ramirez, P.; Boustani, M.; Mattmann, C. A.; Khudikyan, S.; McGibbney, L. J.; Whitehall, K. D.

2014-12-01

Apache Open Climate Workbench (OCW; https://climate.apache.org/) is a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation that aims to provide a suite of tools for performing climate science evaluations using model outputs from a multitude of different sources (ESGF, CORDEX, U.S. NCA, NARCCAP) with remote sensing data from NASA, NOAA, and other agencies. Apache OCW is the second NASA project to become a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation. It grew out of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) project, a collaboration between JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles' Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE). Apache OCW provides scientists and developers with tools for data manipulation, metrics for dataset comparisons, and a visualization suite. In addition to a powerful low-level API, Apache OCW also supports a web application for quick, browser-controlled evaluations, a command line application for local evaluations, and a virtual machine for isolated experimentation with minimal setup. This talk will look at the difficulties and successes of moving a closed community research project out into the wild world of open source. We'll explore the growing pains Apache OCW went through to become a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation as well as the benefits gained by opening up development to the broader climate and computer science communities.

Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

2013-09-01

Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

Hydraulics of sub-superficial flow constructed wetlands in semi arid climate conditions.

PubMed

Ranieri, E

2003-01-01

This paper reports the evaluation of the hydraulics of two constructed wetland (cw(s)) plants located in Apulia (the South Eastern Italy region characterized by semi arid climate conditions). These fields were planted with Phragmites australis hydrophytes and are supplied with local secondary wastewater municipal treatment plant effluent. Each plant--Kickuth Root-Zone method based--covers an area of approx. 2,000 m2. The evapotranspiration phenomenon has been evaluated within perforated tubes fixed to the field bottom and very high values--up to 40 mm/d--were found. Hydraulic conductivity has been evaluated by in situ measurements at different field points. Hydraulic gradients and the piezometric curve within the field are also reported.

Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Blanco, Ana V Rojas

2006-03-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.

Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) - Engaging Secondary Students in Climate Science through Videography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, A. U.; Oonk, D. J.; Smith, L. K.; Sullivan, S. B.; Boykoff, M.; Osnes, B.

2014-12-01

The impact of climate change is often discussed using examples from Polar Regions such as decreasing polar bear populations but significant changes are happening to local climates around the world. Climate change is often perceived as happening elsewhere, evoking a sense that others have to take action to mitigate climate change. Learning about climate change is very tangible for students when it addresses impacts they can observe close to their home. The Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) program engaged Colorado middle and high school students in producing short videos about climate change topics in Colorado, specifically ones that are impacting students' lives and their local community. Participating schools were located in rural, suburban and urban Colorado many of which have diverse student populations and high Free and Reduced Lunch rates. Project staff recruited university graduate and undergraduate student to mentor the students in their research and video production. With the help of these mentors, ten student groups selected and researched climate topics, interviewed science experts from local research institutes and produced short videos. The program aimed at engaging students in self-motivated researching and learning about a climate topic. Furthermore, it served as a way to spark students' interest in a career in science by matching them with college students for the program duration and bringing them to the University of Colorado campus for a final screening event, for many of students their first visit to a college campus. The LOCC middle and high school student groups were in addition paired with undergraduate student groups enrolled in a college course that explores climate change through artistic compositions. The undergraduate students were tasked to develop a companion video based only on a brief prompt from the secondary students. Both student videos were screened back-to-back at a final screening. The LOCC project's goal was to connect secondary students, who would otherwise not have the opportunity, with college life and the scientific community. Our evaluation results showed that the process of video production was a powerful tool for the students to explore and learn about climate change topics. Students and teachers appreciated the unique approach to learning.

Multiscale Trend Analysis for Pampa Grasslands Using Ground Data and Vegetation Sensor Imagery

PubMed Central

Scottá, Fernando C.; da Fonseca, Eliana L.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate changes in the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grasslands in the Pampa biome by using experimental plots and changes in the spectral responses of similar vegetation communities obtained by remote sensing and to compare both datasets with meteorological variations to validate the transition scales of the datasets. Two different geographic scales were considered in this study. At the local scale, an analysis of the climate and its direct influences on grassland ANPP was performed using data from a long-term experiment. At the regional scale, the influences of climate on the grassland reflectance patterns were determined using vegetation sensor imagery data. Overall, the monthly variations of vegetation canopy growth analysed using environmental changes (air temperature, total rainfall and total evapotranspiration) were similar. The results from the ANPP data and the NDVI data showed the that variations in grassland growth were similar and independent of the analysis scale, which indicated that local data and the relationships of local data with climate can be considered at the regional scale in the Pampa biome by using remote sensing. PMID:26197320

A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change.

PubMed

Bonfante, A; Monaco, E; Langella, G; Mercogliano, P; Bucchignani, E; Manna, P; Terribile, F

2018-05-15

Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010-2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits for the cultivation of Aglianico will decrease, as well as the suitable areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

2015-12-01

Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

2015-04-01

The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for Mediterranean climate were identified by percentile analysis, and new fuel moisture code classes were also defined. A stochastic weather generator (M&Rfi), linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs), was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Western Sardinia, Italy. The number of days with critical FFM code values for present and future climate were calculated and the potential impact of future climate change was analysed.

Aviation Terminal Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

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Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

Teaching a Model-based Climatology Using Energy Balance Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unwin, David

1981-01-01

After outlining the difficulties of teaching climatology within an undergraduate geography curriculum, the author describes and evaluates the use of a computer assisted simulation to model surface energy balance and the effects of land use changes on local climate. (AM)

Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A

2011-06-01

Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.

Aerosol as a player in the Arctic Amplification - an aerosol-climate model evaluation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schacht, Jacob; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-04-01

Climate warming is much more pronounced in the Arctic than in any other region on Earth - a phenomenon referred to as the "Arctic Amplification". This is closely related to a variety of specific feedback mechanisms, which relative importance, however, is not yet sufficiently understood. The local changes in the Arctic climate are far-reaching and affect for example the general atmospheric circulation and global energy transport. Aerosol particles from long-range transport and local sources play an important role in the Arctic system by modulating the energy balance (directly by interaction with solar and thermal infrared radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties and atmospheric dynamics). The main source regions of anthropogenic aerosol are Europe and East Asia, but also local shipping and oil/gas extraction may contribute significantly. In addition, important sources are widespread, mainly natural boreal forest fires. Most of the European aerosol is transported through the lower atmospheric layers in wintertime. The Asian aerosol is transported through higher altitudes. Because of the usually pristine conditions in the Arctic even small absolute changes in aerosol concentration can have large impacts on the Arctic climate. Using global and Arctic-focused model simulations, we aim at investigating the sources and transport pathways of natural and anthropogenic aerosol to the Arctic region, as well as their impact on radiation and clouds. Here, we present first results from an aerosol-climate model evaluation study. Simulations were performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, using three different state-of-the-art emission inventories (ACCMIP, ACCMIP + GFAS emissions for wildfires and ECLIPSE). The runs were performed in nudged mode at T63 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.8°) with 47 vertical levels for the 10-year period 2006-2015. Black carbon (BC) and sulphate (SO4) are of particular interest. BC is highly absorbing in the solar spectrum, an effect that is enhanced by the contrast between the bright snow/ice surfaces and the dark BC. When deposited on snow and ice, BC also accelerates melting and lowers the surface albedo. SO4 however is more scattering and, therefore, cooling. The model results are compared among each other and evaluated against ground-based in-situ and remote sensing, as well as active satellite observations. The following questions are addressed in the evaluation: 1) Are the sources and transport pathways of aerosol to the Arctic region captured? 2) Is the annual cycle of aerosol conditions reproduced? 3) What are uncertainties related to the emission database? After thorough evaluation, the model results will provide a state-of-the-art estimate of the aerosol budget and the effective radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols in the Arctic region.

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Evaluating County-Level Heat Vulnerability and Social Inequity in the United States through Climate and Socioeconomic Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change will have many impacts on human health, perhaps most directly through extreme heat. High temperature and humidity combinations inhibit the body's ability to cool through physiological responses such as sweating. In conjunction with extended periods of extreme heat and shifted seasonality, these conditions are particularly dangerous. Current research and literature can be used to show where dangerous heat and humidity conditions are likely to be most prevalent, or where populations vulnerable to heat stress reside. To provide a better assessment of overall heat vulnerability, however, many complex factors, such as relative changes in temperature patterns or local socioeconomic conditions, must also be considered. Here, we utilize a multivariate approach to establish county-level risk scores by combining the most relevant indicators for heat vulnerability with climate model projections of wet bulb globe temperature, a metric useful for understanding how the human body will respond to conditions of high heat and humidity. We present our findings as an ESRI ArcOnline Story Map with data aggregated at the county-level in the continental United States. This format allows users to access maps showing each county's score in four categories related to heat vulnerability: heat and humidity hazards, population vulnerability, medical access, and physical infrastructure. A final map showcases a composite heat vulnerability score for each county, with comparisons to state and national averages. Our tool, part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, is presented as a series of maps with a normalized scoring system to provide clear and easy access to the indicators most relevant to evaluating heat vulnerability at a local level. Ultimately, this readily available tool with general indices helps community decision makers communicate heat vulnerability and identify which resilience factors are most critical to improving local resilience.

Health and climate related ecosystem services provided by street trees in the urban environment.

PubMed

Salmond, Jennifer A; Tadaki, Marc; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Coutts, Andrew; Demuzere, Matthias; Dirks, Kim N; Heaviside, Clare; Lim, Shanon; Macintyre, Helen; McInnes, Rachel N; Wheeler, Benedict W

2016-03-08

Urban tree planting initiatives are being actively promoted as a planning tool to enable urban areas to adapt to and mitigate against climate change, enhance urban sustainability and improve human health and well-being. However, opportunities for creating new areas of green space within cities are often limited and tree planting initiatives may be constrained to kerbside locations. At this scale, the net impact of trees on human health and the local environment is less clear, and generalised approaches for evaluating their impact are not well developed.In this review, we use an urban ecosystems services framework to evaluate the direct, and locally-generated, ecosystems services and disservices provided by street trees. We focus our review on the services of major importance to human health and well-being which include 'climate regulation', 'air quality regulation' and 'aesthetics and cultural services'. These are themes that are commonly used to justify new street tree or street tree retention initiatives. We argue that current scientific understanding of the impact of street trees on human health and the urban environment has been limited by predominantly regional-scale reductionist approaches which consider vegetation generally and/or single out individual services or impacts without considering the wider synergistic impacts of street trees on urban ecosystems. This can lead planners and policymakers towards decision making based on single parameter optimisation strategies which may be problematic when a single intervention offers different outcomes and has multiple effects and potential trade-offs in different places.We suggest that a holistic approach is required to evaluate the services and disservices provided by street trees at different scales. We provide information to guide decision makers and planners in their attempts to evaluate the value of vegetation in their local setting. We show that by ensuring that the specific aim of the intervention, the scale of the desired biophysical effect and an awareness of a range of impacts guide the choice of i) tree species, ii) location and iii) density of tree placement, street trees can be an important tool for urban planners and designers in developing resilient and resourceful cities in an era of climatic change.

Ocean-atmosphere relationships from synoptic scale to local scale in South San Francisco Bay, with implications to flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, N. L.; Coats, R. N.; Loewenstein, M.; Roy, S. B.; MacWilliams, M.

2012-12-01

This work evaluates the implications to flooding risk at the low-lying NASA Ames Research Center in South San Francisco Bay under historical and projected climate and sea level rise. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean, influenced by ENSO and PDO, can result in extended periods of higher mean coastal sea level in California. Simultaneously they originate a larger number of storms that make landfall and have higher mean intensity. These storms generate barometrically-induced high water anomalies, and winds that are sometimes capable of producing large coastal waves. Storm surges that propagate from the coast into the estuary and South Bay, and locally-generated waves, may compromise the discharge capacity of stream channels. These conditions also typically generate high intensity rainfall, and the reduced channel capacity may result in fluvial flooding. Such atmospheric circulation patterns may persist for many months, during which California experiences more precipitation events of longer mean duration and higher intensity, leading to large precipitation totals that saturate soils and may exceed the storage capacity of stormwater retention ponds. Future scenarios of sea level rise, that may surpass a meter in this century according to the projections recently published by the National Research Council for states of CA, OR and WA, and projected atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate change, may amplify these risks. We evaluate the impacts of these changes on NASA's Ames Research Center through four areas of study: (i) wetland accretion and evolution as mean sea level rises, with implications to the Bay's response to the sea level rise and storm surges, (ii) hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the propagation of tidal height and storm surges in the Bay and the influence of local winds on wave height, (iii) evaluation of historical data and future climate projections to identify extreme precipitation events, and (iv) regional climate models to identify moisture source areas and evaluate the role of moisture flux on projected California precipitation.;

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Hargreaves, A L; Bailey, S F; Laird, R A

2015-08-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

Framework for Detection and Localization of Extreme Climate Event with Pixel Recursive Super Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. K.; Lee, J.; Zhang, C.; Ames, S.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep learning techniques have been successfully applied to solve many problems in climate and geoscience using massive-scaled observed and modeled data. For extreme climate event detections, several models based on deep neural networks have been recently proposed and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous handcrafted expert based method. The issue arising, though, is that accurate localization of events requires high quality of climate data. In this work, we propose framework capable of detecting and localizing extreme climate events in very coarse climate data. Our framework is based on two models using deep neural networks, (1) Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to detect and localize extreme climate events, and (2) Pixel recursive recursive super resolution model to reconstruct high resolution climate data from low resolution climate data. Based on our preliminary work, we have presented two CNNs in our framework for different purposes, detection and localization. Our results using CNNs for extreme climate events detection shows that simple neural nets can capture the pattern of extreme climate events with high accuracy from very coarse reanalysis data. However, localization accuracy is relatively low due to the coarse resolution. To resolve this issue, the pixel recursive super resolution model reconstructs the resolution of input of localization CNNs. We present a best networks using pixel recursive super resolution model that synthesizes details of tropical cyclone in ground truth data while enhancing their resolution. Therefore, this approach not only dramat- ically reduces the human effort, but also suggests possibility to reduce computing cost required for downscaling process to increase resolution of data.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

2017-12-01

The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this outcome metric. Our assessment sheds light on key differences between global versus local skill, and broad versus specific skill of climate models, highlighting that decision-relevant model evaluation may be crucial for providing practitioners with the best available climate information for their specific needs.

Nonhydrostatic nested climate modeling: A case study of the 2010 summer season over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebassi-Habtezion, Bereket; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

potential importance of local-scale climate phenomena motivates development of approaches to enable computationally feasible nonhydrostatic climate simulations. To that end, we evaluate the potential viability of nested nonhydrostatic model approaches, using the summer climate of the western United States (WUSA) as a case study. We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to carry out five simulations of summer 2010. This suite allows us to test differences between nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic resolutions, single and multiple nesting approaches, and high- and low-resolution reanalysis boundary conditions. WRF simulations were evaluated against station observations, gridded observations, and reanalysis data over domains that cover the 11 WUSA states at nonhydrostatic grid spacing of 4 km and hydrostatic grid spacing of 25 km and 50 km. Results show that the nonhydrostatic simulations more accurately resolve the heterogeneity of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed features associated with the topography and orography of the WUSA region. In addition, we find that the simulation in which the nonhydrostatic grid is nested directly within the regional reanalysis exhibits the greatest overall agreement with observational data. Results therefore indicate that further development of nonhydrostatic nesting approaches is likely to yield important insights into the response of local-scale climate phenomena to increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations. However, the biases in regional precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture flux identified in a subset of the nonhydrostatic simulations suggest that alternative nonhydrostatic modeling approaches such as superparameterization and variable-resolution global nonhydrostatic modeling will provide important complements to the nested approaches tested here.

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being

PubMed Central

Sills, Erin O.; de Sassi, Claudio; Jagger, Pamela; Lawlor, Kathleen; Miteva, Daniela A.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Sunderlin, William D.

2018-01-01

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular areas for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high. PMID:29681690

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being.

PubMed

Sills, Erin O; de Sassi, Claudio; Jagger, Pamela; Lawlor, Kathleen; Miteva, Daniela A; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Sunderlin, William D

2017-03-01

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular areas for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high.

A downscaling method for the assessment of local climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, E.; Portoghese, I.; Vurro, M.

2009-04-01

The use of complimentary models is necessary to study the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological response at different space-time scales. However, the structure of GCMs is such that their space resolution (hundreds of kilometres) is too coarse and not adequate to describe the variability of extreme events at basin scale (Burlando and Rosso, 2002). To bridge the space-time gap between the climate scenarios and the usual scale of the inputs for hydrological prediction models is a fundamental requisite for the evaluation of climate change impacts on water resources. Since models operate a simplification of a complex reality, their results cannot be expected to fit with climate observations. Identifying local climate scenarios for impact analysis implies the definition of more detailed local scenario by downscaling GCMs or RCMs results. Among the output correction methods we consider the statistical approach by Déqué (2007) reported as a ‘Variable correction method' in which the correction of model outputs is obtained by a function build with the observation dataset and operating a quantile-quantile transformation (Q-Q transform). However, in the case of daily precipitation fields the Q-Q transform is not able to correct the temporal property of the model output concerning the dry-wet lacunarity process. An alternative correction method is proposed based on a stochastic description of the arrival-duration-intensity processes in coherence with the Poissonian Rectangular Pulse scheme (PRP) (Eagleson, 1972). In this proposed approach, the Q-Q transform is applied to the PRP variables derived from the daily rainfall datasets. Consequently the corrected PRP parameters are used for the synthetic generation of statistically homogeneous rainfall time series that mimic the persistency of daily observations for the reference period. Then the PRP parameters are forced through the GCM scenarios to generate local scale rainfall records for the 21st century. The statistical parameters characterizing daily storm occurrence, storm intensity and duration needed to apply the PRP scheme are considered among STARDEX collection of extreme indices.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

PubMed

Sperotto, A; Torresan, S; Gallina, V; Coppola, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2016-08-15

Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial-industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk-based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development of risk mitigation and urban plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A protocol for the development of Mediterranean climate services based on the experiences of the CLIM-RUN case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodess, Clare; Ruti, Paolo; Rousset, Nathalie

2014-05-01

During the closing stages of the CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project on Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs, the real-world experiences encountered by the case-study teams are being assessed and synthesised to identify examples of good practice and, in particular, to produce the CLIM-RUN protocol for the development of Mediterranean climate services. The specific case studies have focused on renewable energy (Morocco, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus), tourism (Savoie, Tunisia, Croatia, Cyprus) and wild fires (Greece) as well as one cross-cutting case study (Veneto region). They have been implemented following a common programme of local workshops, questionnaires and interviews, with Climate Expert Team and Stakeholder Expert Team members collaborating to identify and translate user needs and subsequently develop climate products and information. Feedback from stakeholders has been essential in assessing and refining these products. The protocol covers the following issues: the overall process and methodological key stages; identification and selection of stakeholders; communication with stakeholders; identification of user needs; translation of needs; producing products; assessing and refining products; methodologies for evaluating the economic value of climate services; and beyond CLIM-RUN - the lessons learnt. Particular emphasis is given to stakeholder analysis in the context of the participatory, bottom-up approach promoted by CLIM-RUN and to the iterative approach taken in the development of climate products. Recommendations are also made for an envisioned three-tier business model for the development of climate services involving climate, intermediary and stakeholder tiers.

Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

2016-12-01

As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

Coastal Resilience and Adaptation:Working Together to go from Information to Action on Alaska's Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, A.; Poe, A.; Murphy, K.; Littell, J. S.; Pletnikoff, K.; Holen, D.

2016-12-01

The phrases "coastal resilience" and "climate adaptation" appear everywhere now—but how do they meet the needs of communities and natural resource managers on Alaska's coast? A regional consortium of The Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, four of Alaska's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), NOAA, University of Alaska Fairbanks and the Alaska Climate Science Center joined numerous local partners including several Tribes and Alaska Native Organizations to host workshops in five regions to find out.The project brought together audiences from Tribal and local government, State and Federal agencies, scientists and local experts to share the state of existing knowledge on current and anticipated environmental changes and impacts and discuss potential response actions. Targeting information and tools needed for decision making and resource management, the hundreds of workshop participants identified gaps in available data, information and knowledge that needs to be filled to help communities and managers better respond to climate change. Each of the workshops built upon the other and connected stakeholders and increase resiliency by bringing local decision makers together with the researchers who can fill their needs, consolidating and leveraging research being done in the region by many different parties (western and traditional) and ensuring those results get to those who need them, and creating an adaptive, collaborative process of identifying needs, conducting work, gathering the latest science from local to national sources, presenting results for evaluation and feedback, and using that information to drive future research and management investments. The resulting "toolbox" will help management agencies and others to better understand the dynamic changes Alaska is experiencing, their impacts on communities and habitats, as well as tools and information that can help managers and community leaders work better together to adapt to climate change.

Training NOAA Staff on Effective Communication Methods with Local Climate Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Mayes, B.

2011-12-01

Since 2002 NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Services Division (CSD) offered training opportunities to NWS staff. As a result of eight-year-long development of the training program, NWS offers three training courses and about 25 online distance learning modules covering various climate topics: climate data and observations, climate variability and change, NWS national and local climate products, their tools, skill, and interpretation. Leveraging climate information and expertise available at all NOAA line offices and partners allows delivery of the most advanced knowledge and is a very critical aspect of the training program. NWS challenges in providing local climate services includes effective communication techniques on provide highly technical scientific information to local users. Addressing this challenge requires well trained, climate-literate workforce at local level capable of communicating the NOAA climate products and services as well as provide climate-sensitive decision support. Trained NWS climate service personnel use proactive and reactive approaches and professional education methods in communicating climate variability and change information to local users. Both scientifically-unimpaired messages and amiable communication techniques such as story telling approach are important in developing an engaged dialog between the climate service providers and users. Several pilot projects NWS CSD conducted in the past year applied the NWS climate services training program to training events for NOAA technical user groups. The technical user groups included natural resources managers, engineers, hydrologists, and planners for transportation infrastructure. Training of professional user groups required tailoring the instructions to the potential applications of each group of users. Training technical user identified the following critical issues: (1) Knowledge of target audience expectations, initial knowledge status, and potential use of climate information; (2) Leveraging partnership with climate services providers; and, (3) Applying 3H training approach, where the first H stands for Head (trusted science), the second H stands for Heart (make it easy), and the third H for Hand (support with applications).

The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2008-12-01

Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change. CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change. CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee, Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure, transportation, land use, and resource management. Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors. Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question: "How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions. In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative will equip CCAP partners with the knowledge and tools to get started on planning and implementing adaptation measures. Drawing on the best and brightest state, local and national policy experts, it will recommend a comprehensive set of actions that will enable the federal government to support local resiliency efforts. Toward that end, CCAP has identified three core principles for national climate adaptation policy: 1. National climate policy should support state and local adaptation planning and implementation, such as through use of cap-and-trade allowance auction proceeds; 2. Federal agencies should provide adaptation assistance to state and local governments, including regional impact assessments, downscaled climate model data, updated flood maps, planning tools, drought early warning, and implementation guidance; and 3. A national climate service and extension network needs to be established to aid local governments implementing resilience measures in collaboration with universities, companies and technical experts around the country.

Identification of locally available structural material as co-substrate for organic waste composting in Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

Springer, C; Heldt, N

2016-06-01

Owing to the lack in structural strength while composting certain kinds of organic wastes, 11 co-substrates were tested that are generally locally available in rural areas of northern Tamil Nadu, India. In addition to the classical composting parameters such as carbon/nitrogen ratio, moisture content, dry matter and organic dry matter, a compression test was conducted to evaluate the structural strength and the suitability as bulking agent for composting processes. Additionally, with respect to the climatic conditions in India, the water holding capacity was also evaluated. © The Author(s) 2016.

Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2014-12-01

We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

Preparedness for climate change among local health department officials in New York state: a comparison with national survey results.

PubMed

Carr, Jessie L; Sheffield, Perry E; Kinney, Patrick L

2012-01-01

Climate-change adaptation strategies that address locally specific climate hazards are critical for preventing negative health outcomes, and local public health care officials are key foci for adaptation planning. To assess New York State Local Health Department officials' perceptions and preparedness related to climate-sensitive health areas, and compare these with a national sample. Online survey instrument, originally used in a national survey of local health department (LHD) officials. New York State. Eligible participants included all New York State city and county LHD officials, 1 respondent per LHD. LHD officials' perceptions of (1) local climate-related public health effects, (2) preparation status and programming areas of LHDs, and (3) necessary resources to better address climate-related health risks. : Survey participants, representing a 54% response rate (with 93% of respondents completing more than 90% of the questions), perceived climate change as relevant to public health, and most noted that some of their existing programs already use or are planning to use climate adaptation strategies. Overall, fewer New York State respondents identified concerns or related expertise compared with the previous national survey. Many respondents expressed uncertainty regarding necessary additional resources. This type of assessment makes clear the high variability in perceived impacts and capacity at the level of LHD jurisdictions, and underscores the importance of sustained support for local climate-change preparedness programming. The implications of these findings are germane to other states with similar decentralized jurisdiction of public health. Findings from such surveys can bolster existing LHD programs, as well as inform long-term and emergency planning for climate change.

The New England Climate Adaptation Project: Enhancing Local Readiness to Adapt to Climate Change through Role-Play Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumore, D.; Kirshen, P. H.; Susskind, L.

2014-12-01

Despite scientific consensus that the climate is changing, local efforts to prepare for and manage climate change risks remain limited. How we can raise concern about climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt to climate change's effects? In this presentation, we will share the lessons learned from the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP), a participatory action research project that tested science-based role-play simulations as a tool for educating the public about climate change risks and simulating collective risk management efforts. NECAP was a 2-year effort involving the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Consensus Building Institute, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, and four coastal New England municipalities. During 2012-2013, the NECAP team produced downscaled climate change projections, a summary risk assessment, and a stakeholder assessment for each partner community. Working with local partners, we used these assessments to create a tailored, science-based role-play simulation for each site. Through a series of workshops in 2013, NECAP engaged between 115-170 diverse stakeholders and members of the public in each partner municipality in playing the simulation and a follow up conversation about local climate change risks and possible adaptation strategies. Data were collected through before-and-after surveys administered to all workshop participants, follow-up interviews with 25 percent of workshop participants, public opinion polls conducted before and after our intervention, and meetings with public officials. This presentation will report our research findings and explain how science-based role-play simulations can be used to help communicate local climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

PubMed

Wiens, John J

2016-12-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PubMed Central

Wiens, John J.

2016-01-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. PMID:27930674

Strategy Guideline. Proper Water Heater Selection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoeschele, M.; Springer, D.; German, A.

2015-04-09

This Strategy Guideline on proper water heater selection was developed by the Building America team Alliance for Residential Building Innovation to provide step-by-step procedures for evaluating preferred cost-effective options for energy efficient water heater alternatives based on local utility rates, climate, and anticipated loads.

Strategy Guideline: Proper Water Heater Selection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoeschele, M.; Springer, D.; German, A.

2015-04-01

This Strategy Guideline on proper water heater selection was developed by the Building America team Alliance for Residential Building Innovation to provide step-by-step procedures for evaluating preferred cost-effective options for energy efficient water heater alternatives based on local utility rates, climate, and anticipated loads.

Biofuels and the bay: Characterizing health and ecosystem impacts in the Chesapeake

EPA Science Inventory

The global climate crisis has stimulated the search for alternative fuels. Biofuels have been the focus of a recent report by the Chesapeake Bay Commission that evaluated alternative fuel development efforts in the local area. Already under stress from anthropomorphic factors,...

Implications for local and global climate of alternative forest management strategies in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bright, Ryan M.; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Astrup, Rasmus; Cherubini, Francesco; Kvalevåg, Maria; Hammer Strømman, Anders

2014-05-01

We applied a mix of observation and empirical models to evaluate both local and global climate effects of three realistic alternative forest management scenarios in the boreal forests of Norway's largest logging region. The alternative management scenarios embraced strategies aimed at increasing harvest intensities and allowing harvested conifer sites to regenerate naturally with broadleaved species. Stand-level analysis was firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across coniferous, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a coniferous site, we observed a slight local cooling of 0.13 °C at a deciduous site and 0.25 °C at a clear-cut site over a 6-year period which was mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes - despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies simultaneously promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. While additional climate impact linked to changes in life-cycle emissions and to changes in the global supply and demand of timber products ought to be factored into any mitigation-oriented climate policy involving the forestry sector, our analysis demonstrates that - within the boundaries of the managed forest ecosystem - excluding important biogeophysical considerations like surface albedo change may lead to sub-optimal climate policy.

Tests of species-specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean-climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection.

PubMed

Bemmels, Jordan B; Title, Pascal O; Ortego, Joaquín; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-10-01

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Jokiel, P.L.; Zimmerman, K.M.; Lane, D.R.; Carey, J.M.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Martinich, J.A.

2008-01-01

We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai'i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai'i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; Illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions. ?? 2008, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanugraphy, Inc.

How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

PubMed

Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

2016-04-15

Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tree rings provide a new class of phenotypes for genetic associations that foster insights into adaptation of conifers to climate change.

PubMed

Housset, Johann M; Nadeau, Simon; Isabel, Nathalie; Depardieu, Claire; Duchesne, Isabelle; Lenz, Patrick; Girardin, Martin P

2018-04-01

Local adaptation in tree species has been documented through a long history of common garden experiments where functional traits (height, bud phenology) are used as proxies for fitness. However, the ability to identify genes or genomic regions related to adaptation to climate requires the evaluation of traits that precisely reflect how and when climate exerts selective constraints. We combine dendroecology with association genetics to establish a link between genotypes, phenotypes and interannual climatic fluctuations. We illustrate this approach by examining individual tree responses embedded in the annual rings of 233 Pinus strobus trees growing in a common garden experiment representing 38 populations from the majority of its range. We found that interannual variability in growth was affected by low temperatures during spring and autumn, and by summer heat and drought. Among-population variation in climatic sensitivity was significantly correlated with the mean annual temperature of the provenance, suggesting local adaptation. Genotype-phenotype associations using these new tree-ring phenotypes validated nine candidate genes identified in a previous genetic-environment association study. Combining dendroecology with association genetics allowed us to assess tree vulnerability to past climate at fine temporal scales and provides avenues for future genomic studies on functional adaptation in forest trees. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmospherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic boreal forest lichen Evernia mesomorpha.

PubMed

Smith, Robert J; Nelson, Peter R; Jovan, Sarah; Hanson, Paul J; McCune, Bruce

2018-02-01

Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined. We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species' range. Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events. Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmospherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic boreal forest lichen Evernia mesomorpha

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Robert J.; Nelson, Peter R.; Jovan, Sarah

Premise of the Study: Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined.Methods: We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species’ range.Keymore » Results: Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events.Conclusions: Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace.« less

Preparing for Climate Change: A Perspective from Local Public Health Officers in California

PubMed Central

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-01-01

Background The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. Methods This article presents the results of a survey of California’s local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers’ concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. Results The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy. PMID:19440502

Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.

PubMed

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-04-01

The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.

Using historical and projected future climate model simulations as drivers of agricultural and biological models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanova, L. B.

2013-12-01

Climate model evaluation is frequently performed as a first step in analyzing climate change simulations. Atmospheric scientists are accustomed to evaluating climate models through the assessment of model climatology and biases, the models' representation of large-scale modes of variability (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc) and the relationship between these modes and local variability (e.g. the connection between ENSO and the wintertime precipitation in the Southeast US). While these provide valuable information about the fidelity of historical and projected climate model simulations from an atmospheric scientist's point of view, the application of climate model data to fields such as agriculture, ecology and biology may require additional analyses focused on the particular application's requirements and sensitivities. Typically, historical climate simulations are used to determine a mapping between the model and observed climate, either through a simple (additive for temperature or multiplicative for precipitation) or a more sophisticated (such as quantile matching) bias correction on a monthly or seasonal time scale. Plants, animals and humans however are not directly affected by monthly or seasonal means. To assess the impact of projected climate change on living organisms and related industries (e.g. agriculture, forestry, conservation, utilities, etc.), derivative measures such as the heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), growing degree-days (GDD), accumulated chill hours (ACH), wet season onset (WSO) and duration (WSD), among others, are frequently useful. We will present a comparison of the projected changes in such derivative measures calculated by applying: (a) the traditional temperature/precipitation bias correction described above versus (b) a bias correction based on the mapping between the historical model and observed derivative measures themselves. In addition, we will present and discuss examples of various application-based climate model evaluations, such as: (a) agricultural crop yield estimates and (b) species population viability estimates modeled using observed climate data vs. historical climate simulations.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

A Methodology for Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Policies

EPA Science Inventory

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we donot have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their ...

A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions

EPA Science Inventory

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their...

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

CSUB CREST Research on Climate Change and the San Joaquin Valley, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krugh, W. C.; Negrini, R. M.; Baron, D.; Gillespie, J.; Horton, R. A.; Montoya, E.; Cruz-Boone, C.; Andrews, G. D.; Guo, J.

2015-12-01

As part of the NSF-supported Centers for Excellence in Science and Technology (CREST), student and faculty researchers at California State University, Bakersfield (CSUB) have been investigating the regional impacts of climate change as well as evaluating the potential of local contributions to its abatement. Highlights of this research include; 1) the development of a high-resolution climate record from Tulare Lake sediments that spans the past 20,000 years, 2) the quantitative analysis and prediction of climate change impacts on Sierra Nevada snowpack, 3) the detailed subsurface characterization of San Joaquin Valley oilfields targeted for CO2 sequestration, and 4) the evaluation of proposed host rock suitability under simulated CO2 injection conditions. To date, CSUB CREST supported research has resulted in 26 contributions to peer-reviewed journals (currently published or in-review). A primary goal of CSUB CREST is to improve the recruitment, retention, and success of students from the local community, the majority of whom are from backgrounds under-represented in STEM disciplines. More than 28 students have been directly involved in the basic and applied research projects supported by this program. The majority of these students have received, or are on track to receive, an M.S. degree and have ultimately gained employment in a STEM field or been accepted into a Ph.D. program. This presentation, and others in this session, will focus on the accomplishments, challenges, and strategies for success gleaned from CSUB CREST Phase 1.

Integrating Health into Local Climate Response: Lessons from the U.S. CDC Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative

PubMed Central

Fox, Mary A.; Kaye, Charlotte; Resnick, Beth

2017-01-01

Summary: Public health has potential to serve as a frame to convey the urgency of behavior change needed to adapt to a changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments form the backbone of climate-related public health preparedness. Yet local health agencies are often inadequately prepared and poorly integrated into climate change assessments and plans. We reviewed the climate health profiles of 16 states and two cities participating in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) that aims to build local capacity to assess and respond to the health impacts of climate change. Following recommendations from a recent expert panel strategic review, we present illustrations of emerging promising practice and future directions. We found that CRSCI has strengthened climate preparedness and response in local public health agencies by identifying critical climate-health impacts and vulnerable populations, and has helped integrate health more fully into broader climate planning. Promising practice was found in all three recommendation areas identified by the expert panel (leveraging partnerships, refining assessment methodologies and enhancing communications), particularly with regard to health impacts of extreme heat. Vast needs remain, however, suggesting the need to disseminate CRSCI experience to non-grantees. In conclusion, the CRSCI program approach and selected activities illustrate a way forward toward robust, targeted local preparedness and response that may serve as a useful example for public health departments in the United States and internationally, particularly at a time of uncertain commitment to climate change agreements at the national level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1838 PMID:28934724

Implementation of a WRF-CMAQ Air Quality Modeling System in Bogotá, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedbor-Gross, R.; Henderson, B. H.; Pachon, J. E.; Davis, J. R.; Baublitz, C. B.; Rincón, A.

2014-12-01

Due to a continuous economic growth Bogotá, Colombia has experienced air pollution issues in recent years. The local environmental authority has implemented several strategies to curb air pollution that have resulted in the decrease of PM10 concentrations since 2010. However, more activities are necessary in order to meet international air quality standards in the city. The University of Florida Air Quality and Climate group is collaborating with the Universidad de La Salle to prioritize regulatory strategies for Bogotá using air pollution simulations. To simulate pollution, we developed a modeling platform that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), local emissions, and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ). This platform is the first of its kind to be implemented in the megacity of Bogota, Colombia. The presentation will discuss development and evaluation of the air quality modeling system, highlight initial results characterizing photochemical conditions in Bogotá, and characterize air pollution under proposed regulatory strategies. The WRF model has been configured and applied to Bogotá, which resides in a tropical climate with complex mountainous topography. Developing the configuration included incorporation of local topography and land-use data, a physics sensitivity analysis, review, and systematic evaluation. The threshold, however, was set based on synthesis of model performance under less mountainous conditions. We will evaluate the impact that differences in autocorrelation contribute to the non-ideal performance. Air pollution predictions are currently under way. CMAQ has been configured with WRF meteorology, global boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, and a locally produced emission inventory. Preliminary results from simulations show promising performance of CMAQ in Bogota. Anticipated results include a systematic performance evaluation of ozone and PM10, characterization of photochemical sensitivity, and air quality predictions under proposed regulatory scenarios.

Intention, Principle, Outputs and Aims of the Experimental Pavilion Research of Building Envelopes Including Windows for Wooden Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Štaffenová, Daniela; Rybárik, Ján; Jakubčík, Miroslav

2017-06-01

The aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.

REGIONAL COORDINATION OF NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE WEST (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bair, A.

2009-12-01

The climate services program is an important component in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission, and is one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) top five priorities. The Western Region NWS started building a regional and local climate services program in late 2001, with input from local NWS offices and key partners. The original goals of the Western Region climate services program were to strive to provide climate services that were useful, easily accessible, well understood, coordinated and supported by partners, and reflect customer needs. While the program has evolved, and lessons have been learned, these goals are still guiding the program. Regional and local level Climate Services are a fundamental part of NOAA/NWS’s current and future role in providing climate services. There is an ever growing demand for climate information and services to aid the public in decision-making and no single entity alone can provide the range of information and services needed. Coordination and building strong partnerships at the local and regional levels is the key to providing optimal climate services. Over the past 8 years, Western Region NWS has embarked on numerous coordination efforts to build the regional and local climate services programs, such as: collaboration (both internally and externally to NOAA) meetings and projects, internal staff training, surveys, and outreach efforts. In order to gain regional and local buy-in from the NWS staff, multiple committees were utilized to plan and develop goals and structure for the program. While the regional and local climate services program in the NWS Western Region has had many successes, there have been several important lessons learned from efforts that have not been as successful. These lessons, along with past experience, close coordination with partners, and the need to constantly improve/change the program as the climate changes, form the basis for future program development and goals.

Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Östergren, Per-Olof; Kjellstrom, Tord

2018-03-01

Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.

Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Östergren, Per-Olof; Kjellstrom, Tord

2018-03-01

Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.

Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

PubMed

Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-05-01

Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012

PubMed Central

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W.; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Background Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. Methods We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011–2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Results Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed. PMID:26991658

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

2012-12-01

Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model coupled to the IBIS DGVM model. Our area of study comprises selected regions in and near the Brazilian "arc of deforestation". For model training and evaluation, several areas have been mapped using high-resolution imagery from the Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors (Figure 1). This high resolution reference data is used for local-scale simulations and also to evaluate the accuracy of the global MCD45 burned area product, which will be used in future studies covering the entire "arc of deforestation".; Area of study along the arc of deforestation and cerrado: landsat scenes used and burned area (2010) from MCD45 product.

Climate and local abundance in freshwater fishes

PubMed Central

Knouft, Jason H.; Anthony, Melissa M.

2016-01-01

Identifying factors regulating variation in numbers of individuals among populations across a species' distribution is a fundamental goal in ecology. A common prediction, often referred to as the abundant-centre hypothesis, suggests that abundance is highest near the centre of a species' range. However, because of the primary focus on the geographical position of a population, this framework provides little insight into the environmental factors regulating local abundance. While range-wide variation in population abundance associated with environmental conditions has been investigated in terrestrial species, the relationship between climate and local abundance in freshwater taxa across species' distributions is not well understood. We used GIS-based temperature and precipitation data to determine the relationships between climatic conditions and range-wide variation in local abundance for 19 species of North American freshwater fishes. Climate predicted a portion of the variation in local abundance among populations for 18 species. In addition, the relationship between climatic conditions and local abundance varied among species, which is expected as lineages partition the environment across geographical space. The influence of local habitat quality on species persistence is well documented; however, our results also indicate the importance of climate in regulating population sizes across a species geographical range, even in aquatic taxa. PMID:27429769

Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms.

PubMed

Gladis-Schmacka, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Karsten, Ulf; Böttcher, Heidrun; Schumann, Rhena

2014-01-01

Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Karen Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Community-based climate change projects in the Pacific typically seek to raise the awareness of locals about the consequences of climate change and changing weather patterns. A key concern is that such activities might be done in an ad hoc manner, with little consideration of local relevance, audience and the integration of local experiences and…

Identifying outdoor thermal risk areas and evaluation of future thermal comfort concerning shading orientation in a traditional settlement.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Tsang; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas; Lin, Tzu-Ping

2018-06-01

The outdoor thermal environment is expected to be deteriorated under climate change. An approach of risk identification including assessment from aspects of thermal stress effect, people's exposure, and local's vulnerability were adopted to study a hot-and-humid traditional rural community located at Tainan, Taiwan. Layers of each aspect were either constructed by in-situ measurements or simulations. To evaluate the future thermal comfort changes by simulations, the prerequisite hourly climate data of three future time slices were produced. Prognostic simulation model, ENVI-met, in combination with diagnostic model, RayMan, were respectively used for identifying current spatial distribution of thermal stress and for assessing the future thermal comfort changes. High thermal risk area was identified by superimposing layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It revealed that because of the tourists' vulnerability to adapt local climate and the inflexibleness of choosing visiting time, it exhibited a high thermal stress at the Main Courtyard where its thermal comfort conditions will be deteriorated due to climate change. Furthermore, the thermal comfort conditions in various shading orientation were analyzed based on the changing climate in three future time slices, i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show the area with shading in the East and West side is more comfort than in the North side. In hot season, shading in the West side contributes less PET increasing, especially in the afternoon period. The severest overheat problem (the physiological equivalent temperature, PET>40°C) at the Main Courtyard will increase from current 10% to 28% in 2071-2100 in terms of overheating occurrence frequency. The results of this study can be used as the guidelines for environment analysis before planning or redesign community. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venevsky, S.; Wu, C.; Sitch, S.

2017-12-01

Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang province, China and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, SEVER-DGVM, and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1%-10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5°C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above a 1.5°C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors like precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage, i.e. composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.

Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems

PubMed Central

Selmants, Paul C.; Moreno, Alvaro; Running, Steve W.; Giardina, Christian P.

2017-01-01

Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to regional scale heterogeneous landscapes, input data from coarse resolution land cover and climate products may increase uncertainty in GPP estimates, especially in high productivity tropical ecosystems. We examined the influence of using locally specific land cover and high-resolution local climate input data on MOD17 estimates of GPP for the State of Hawaii, a heterogeneous and discontinuous tropical landscape. Replacing the global land cover data input product (MOD12Q1) with Hawaii-specific land cover data reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8%, primarily because the Hawaii-specific land cover map had less vegetated land area compared to the global land cover product. Replacing coarse resolution GMAO climate data with Hawaii-specific high-resolution climate data also reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8% because of the higher spatial variability of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the Hawaii-specific climate data. The combined use of both Hawaii-specific land cover and high-resolution Hawaii climate data inputs reduced statewide GPP by ~16%, suggesting equal and independent influence on MOD17 GPP estimates. Our sensitivity analyses within a heterogeneous tropical landscape suggest that refined global land cover and climate data sets may contribute to an enhanced MOD17 product at a variety of spatial scales. PMID:28886187

Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, Heather L.; Selmants, Paul; Moreno, Alvaro; Running Steve W,; Giardina, Christian P.

2017-01-01

Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to regional scale heterogeneous landscapes, input data from coarse resolution land cover and climate products may increase uncertainty in GPP estimates, especially in high productivity tropical ecosystems. We examined the influence of using locally specific land cover and high-resolution local climate input data on MOD17 estimates of GPP for the State of Hawaii, a heterogeneous and discontinuous tropical landscape. Replacing the global land cover data input product (MOD12Q1) with Hawaii-specific land cover data reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8%, primarily because the Hawaii-specific land cover map had less vegetated land area compared to the global land cover product. Replacing coarse resolution GMAO climate data with Hawaii-specific high-resolution climate data also reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8% because of the higher spatial variability of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the Hawaii-specific climate data. The combined use of both Hawaii-specific land cover and high-resolution Hawaii climate data inputs reduced statewide GPP by ~16%, suggesting equal and independent influence on MOD17 GPP estimates. Our sensitivity analyses within a heterogeneous tropical landscape suggest that refined global land cover and climate data sets may contribute to an enhanced MOD17 product at a variety of spatial scales.

Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems.

PubMed

Kimball, Heather L; Selmants, Paul C; Moreno, Alvaro; Running, Steve W; Giardina, Christian P

2017-01-01

Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth's largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to regional scale heterogeneous landscapes, input data from coarse resolution land cover and climate products may increase uncertainty in GPP estimates, especially in high productivity tropical ecosystems. We examined the influence of using locally specific land cover and high-resolution local climate input data on MOD17 estimates of GPP for the State of Hawaii, a heterogeneous and discontinuous tropical landscape. Replacing the global land cover data input product (MOD12Q1) with Hawaii-specific land cover data reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8%, primarily because the Hawaii-specific land cover map had less vegetated land area compared to the global land cover product. Replacing coarse resolution GMAO climate data with Hawaii-specific high-resolution climate data also reduced statewide GPP estimates by ~8% because of the higher spatial variability of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the Hawaii-specific climate data. The combined use of both Hawaii-specific land cover and high-resolution Hawaii climate data inputs reduced statewide GPP by ~16%, suggesting equal and independent influence on MOD17 GPP estimates. Our sensitivity analyses within a heterogeneous tropical landscape suggest that refined global land cover and climate data sets may contribute to an enhanced MOD17 product at a variety of spatial scales.

Decreased winter severity increases viability of a montane frog population

PubMed Central

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Maxell, Bryce A.

2010-01-01

Many proximate causes of global amphibian declines have been well documented, but the role that climate change has played and will play in this crisis remains ambiguous for many species. Breeding phenology and disease outbreaks have been associated with warming temperatures, but, to date, few studies have evaluated effects of climate change on individual vital rates and subsequent population dynamics of amphibians. We evaluated relationships among local climate variables, annual survival and fecundity, and population growth rates from a 9-year demographic study of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Bitterroot Mountains of Montana. We documented an increase in survival and breeding probability as severity of winter decreased. Therefore, a warming climate with less severe winters is likely to promote population viability in this montane frog population. More generally, amphibians and other ectotherms inhabiting alpine or boreal habitats at or near their thermal ecological limits may benefit from the milder winters provided by a warming climate as long as suitable habitats remain intact. A more thorough understanding of how climate change is expected to benefit or harm amphibian populations at different latitudes and elevations is essential for determining the best strategies to conserve viable populations and allow for gene flow and shifts in geographic range. PMID:20421473

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans with respect to human health.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Deglacial History of the Ecuadorian Andes and Implication for Climate Variations: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, M.; Rinterknecht, V. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Seager, R.; Greene, A.

2004-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions are essential for evaluating the future evolution of natural climate variability and for determining climate sensitivity to external forcing. Reconstructing climate conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene represents a unique opportunity to understand climate variability from full glacial conditions to modern warm conditions. The primary goal of our project, is to verify if the changes in temperature and precipitation driving the glacier event in the tropics during the well-documented Little Ice Age (LIA), may also account for the glaciations related to the LGM and the late glacial period. This inter-disciplinary project brings together specialists in glacial geology, surface exposure dating, and climate modeling. Our first trip to Ecuador took us to the Papallacta Valley at the rim of the Potrerillos Plateau. We developed detailed maps of the snowline lowering in the valley and took samples in well-exposed sections for radiocarbon dating. We used our maps and the age constraints on the deglacial history of the Papallacta Valley to estimate the possible combinations of changes in climate parameters related to reconstructed snowline variations. This local study represents the first step in a broader project that will cover most of the Ecuadorian Andes. We will also provide direct dating (3He, 10Be, and 36Cl) of the moraine sequences deposited during the retreat of the glaciers during the late Pleistocene. By the time of the project completion we want to evaluate the nature of the driving forces underlying the LGM and the late glacial event in view of the relatively well understood mechanisms behind the termination of the LIA, and we want to compare the produced data to mid- and high- latitude areas in order to evaluate the regional footprint of dimension and timing of glacier response to climate change.

Our Changing Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newhouse, Kay Berglund

2007-01-01

In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

PubMed

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Seasonality and Management Affect Land Surface Temperature Differences Between Loblolly Pine and Switchgrass Ecosystems in Central Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlswede, B.; Thomas, R. Q.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Rady, J.; LeMoine, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in land-use and land management can have biogeochemical and biophysical effects on local and global climate. While managed ecosystems provide known food and fiber benefits, their influence on climate is less well quantified. In the southeastern United States, there are numerous types of intensely managed ecosystems but pine plantations and switchgrass fields represent two biogeochemical and biophysical extremes; a tall, low albedo forest with trees harvested after multiple decades vs. a short, higher albedo C4 grass field that is harvested annually. Despite the wide spread use of these ecosystems for timber and bioenergy, a quantitative, empirical evaluation of the net influence of these ecosystems on climate is lacking because it requires measuring both the greenhouse gas and energy balance of the ecosystems while controlling for the background weather and soil environment. To address this need, we established a pair of eddy flux towers in these ecosystems that are co-located (1.5 km apart) in Central Virginia and measured the radiative energy, non-radiative energy and carbon fluxes, along with associated biometeorology variables; the paired site has run since April 2016. During the first 1.5 years (two growing seasons), we found strong seasonality in the difference in surface temperature between the two ecosystems. In the growing seasons, both sites had similar surface temperature despite higher net radiation in pine. Following harvest of the switchgrass in September, the switchgrass temperatures increased relative to pine. In the winter, the pine ecosystem was warmer. We evaluate the drivers of these intra-annual dynamics and compare the climate influence of these biophysical differences to the differences in carbon fluxes between the sites using a suite of established climate regulation services metrics. Overall, our results show tradeoffs exist between the biogeochemical and biophysical climate services in managed ecosystems in the southeastern United States and highlight the importance of seasonality when quantifying how land-use and land-cover change influence climate. These data, when combined with earth system models, will help inform our understanding of how land-use and land change decisions in the southeastern United States will influence local, regional, and global climate.

Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) - Engaging Diverse Secondary Students in Climate Science through Videography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Anne; Smith, Lesley; Leckey, Erin; Oonk, David; Woods, Melanie

2016-04-01

The impact of climate change is often discussed using examples from Polar Regions, such as decreasing polar bear populations, but significant changes are happening to local climates around the world. Climate change is often perceived as happening elsewhere, evoking a sense that others have to take action to mitigate climate change. Learning about climate change is very tangible for students when it addresses impacts they can observe close to their home. The Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) program engages students, ages 11to18 in producing short videos about climate change topics in Colorado, USA, specifically ones that are impacting students' lives and their local community. Participating schools are located in rural, suburban and urban Colorado many of which have diverse student populations often from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. Project staff recruits university graduate and undergraduate students to mentor the students in their research and video production. With the help of these mentors, student groups select and research climate topics, interview science experts and stakeholders, and produce short videos. The program aims to engage students in self-motivated research and learning about a climate topic. Furthermore, it serves as a way to spark students' interest in a career in science by matching them with college students for the program duration and bringing them to a university campus for a final screening event. For many of the students it is their first visit to a college campus. The LOCC project aims to connect secondary students, who otherwise would not have this opportunity, with college life and the scientific community. Evaluation results show that the process of video production is a powerful tool for the students to explore and learn about climate change topics. Students and teachers appreciate the unique approach to learning. The here presented approach of teaching science with videography in an active, self-directed style can easily be transferred.

West nile virus prevalence across landscapes is mediated by local effects of agriculture on vector and host communities.

PubMed

Crowder, David W; Dykstra, Elizabeth A; Brauner, Jo Marie; Duffy, Anne; Reed, Caitlin; Martin, Emily; Peterson, Wade; Carrière, Yves; Dutilleul, Pierre; Owen, Jeb P

2013-01-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) threaten the health of humans, livestock, and wildlife. West Nile virus (WNV), the world's most widespread arbovirus, invaded the United States in 1999 and rapidly spread across the county. Although the ecology of vectors and hosts are key determinants of WNV prevalence across landscapes, the factors shaping local vector and host populations remain unclear. Here, we used spatially-explicit models to evaluate how three land-use types (orchards, vegetable/forage crops, natural) and two climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) influence the prevalence of WNV infections and vector/host distributions at landscape and local spatial scales. Across landscapes, we show that orchard habitats were associated with greater prevalence of WNV infections in reservoirs (birds) and incidental hosts (horses), while increased precipitation was associated with fewer infections. At local scales, orchard habitats increased the prevalence of WNV infections in vectors (mosquitoes) and the abundance of mosquitoes and two key reservoir species, the American robin and the house sparrow. Thus, orchard habitats benefitted WNV vectors and reservoir hosts locally, creating focal points for the transmission of WNV at landscape scales in the presence of suitable climatic conditions.

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

PubMed

Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R; Barber, Quinn E; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-02-01

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities). © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

PubMed

Mildenberger, Matto; Howe, Peter; Lachapelle, Erick; Stokes, Leah; Marlon, Jennifer; Gravelle, Timothy

2016-01-01

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada

PubMed Central

Gravelle, Timothy

2016-01-01

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change’s causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels. PMID:27486659

Reassessing the penultimate interglacial analog for current climate change, evidence from Antarctic dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarons, S. M.; Aciego, S.; McConnell, J.

2017-12-01

Dust emissions and transport are linked to spatial and temporal climate variability, with dust provenance providing clues to past climate and climate impacts. The penultimate interglacial period (MIS 5e) has been suggested as an analog to Holocene climate change. We present the first evaluation of the MIS 5e ice archive developed at Taylor Glacier, East Antarctica and provide a record of dust transported to Taylor Glacier during MIS 5e. Our record shows significant differences between MIS 5e, Holocene, and pre-industrial dust transported to East Antarctica. The MIS 5e dust is sourced from New Zealand and southern South America (SSA), while the Holocene dust is sourced from local Antarctic, SSA, and potentially Australian sources. This profound change in composition suggests a variation in atmospheric transport pathways and/or paleo-environmental conditions between the interglacial periods, and indicates that MIS 5e should be reassessed as an analog for climate change and associated impacts.

Annual Proxy Records from Tropical Cloud Forest Trees in the Monteverde Cloud Forest, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; Wheelwright, N. T.; Schrag, D. P.

2005-12-01

The extinction of the Golden Toad (Bufo periglenes) from Costa Rica's Monteverde Cloud Forest prompted research into the causes of ecological change in the montane forests of Costa Rica. Subsequent analysis of meteorological data has suggested that warmer global surface and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures contribute to an observed decrease in cloud cover at Monteverde. However, while recent studies may have concluded that climate change is already having an effect on cloud forest environments in Costa Rica, without the context provided by long-term climate records, it is difficult to confidently conclude that the observed ecological changes are the result of anthropogenic climate forcing, land clearance in the lowland rainforest, or natural variability in tropical climate. To address this, we develop high-resolution proxy paleoclimate records from trees without annual rings in the Monteverde Cloud Forest in Costa Rica. Calibration of an age model in these trees is a fundamental prerequisite for proxy paleoclimate reconstructions. Our approach exploits the isotopic seasonality in the δ18O of water sources (fog versus rainfall) used by trees over the course of a single year. Ocotea tenera individuals of known age and measured annual growth increments were sampled in long-term monitored plantation sites in order to test this proposed age model. High-resolution (200μm increments) stable isotope measurements on cellulose reveal distinct, coherent δ18O cycles of 6 to 10‰. The calculated growth rates derived from the isotope timeseries match those observed from basal growth increment measurements. Spatial fidelity in the age model and climate signal is examined by using multiple cores from multiple trees and multiple sites. These data support our hypothesis that annual isotope cycles in these trees can be used to provide chronological control in the absence of rings. The ability of trees to record interannual climate variability in local hydrometeorology and remote climate forcing is evaluated using the isotope signal from multiple trees, local meteorological observations, and climate field data for the well-observed 1997-1998 warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. The successful calibration of our age model is a necessary step toward the development of long, annually-resolved paleoclimate reconstructions from old trees, even without rings, which will be used to evaluate the cause of recent observed climate change at Monteverde and as proxies for tropical climate field reconstructions.

Building Climate Literacy Through Strategic Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, M.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; Meadows, C. A.

2012-12-01

One of the challenges of developing climate science literacy is establishing the relevance of both climate science and climate change at a local community level. By developing partnerships with community-based informal science education providers, we are able to build our climate science and climate change content into existing programs. Employing a systems science approach facilitates these partnerships as our systems science program links with a range of topics, demonstrating the multiple connections between climate, our communities and our daily lives. Merging hands on activities, collaborative projects, and new technology, we encourage learning through doing by engaging participants in active exploration of climate science concepts. Many informal education venues operating locally, from large science museums to small grass-roots community groups, provide ongoing opportunities to connect with students. Through our collaborations we have worked with various types and sizes of non-classroom science providers including: the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum "Greater Opportunities Advancing Leadership and Science" camps for high school girls, Hudson River Park Trust 'Science on the River' events, the annual New York City World Science Festival, and the AAUW's annual STEM Super Scholars Workshops among others. This range of venues has enabled us to reach various ages, backgrounds and interests advancing climate literacy in a number of forums. Major outcomes of these efforts are: (1) Building capacity with community groups: Many local organizations running community programs do not have in-house science expertise. Both science educators and local organization benefit from these collaborations. Science educators and scientists provide up to date climate science information to the community groups while these programs establish strong working relationships between our research and the local community. (2) Developing climate science literacy and lifelong learning: We have delivered climate science in a variety of ways, each designed to connect the participants with a fundamental science concept while building excitement for the topic and facilitating learning in a non-traditional setting. Our approaches range from launching teams of young people into experiments exploring glacial physics through free-choice inquiry opportunities, to enlisting undergraduate science students in working with the participants demonstrating glacial motion and measurement through engaging technology such as Kinect Xbox 360 sensors, to short single concept hands-on activities designed to deliver a specific climate 'take home' message. (3) Generating a local connection to climate science and impacts: Working with local informal education groups we connect climate topics to community-based issues and 'hot topics' such as sustainable planning, waterfront erosion, storm surge impacts, and local sea level rise projections. Partnering with community based informal education providers allows us to expand our offerings to reach a wider audience of young people, and to connect more directly with our local community. We are excited by the potential in these partnerships to connect students with climate science and develop not only a climate literate group of young people, but also lifelong science learners.

A Simple Water Balance Model Adapted for Arctic Hydrology Reveals Glacier and Streamflow Responses to Climate Change in the Copper River, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentin, M. M.; Hay, L.; Van Beusekom, A. E.; Viger, R. J.; Hogue, T. S.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the hydrologic response to climate change in Alaska's glaciated watersheds remains daunting for hydrologists due to sparse field data and few modeling tools, which frustrates efforts to manage and protect critical aquatic habitat. Approximately 20% of the 64,000 square kilometer Copper River watershed is glaciated, and its glacier-fed tributaries support renowned salmon fisheries that are economically, culturally, and nutritionally invaluable to the local communities. This study adapts a simple, yet powerful, conceptual hydrologic model to simulate changes in the timing and volume of streamflow in the Copper River, Alaska as glaciers change under plausible future climate scenarios. The USGS monthly water balance model (MWBM), a hydrologic tool used for two decades to evaluate a broad range of hydrologic questions in the contiguous U.S., was enhanced to include glacier melt simulations and remotely sensed data. In this presentation we summarize the technical details behind our MWBM adaptation and demonstrate its use in the Copper River Basin to evaluate glacier and streamflow responses to climate change.

Ageing, exposure to pollution, and interactions between climate change and local seasons as oxidant conditions predicting incident hematologic malignancy at KINSHASA University clinics, Democratic Republic of CONGO (DRC).

PubMed

Nkanga, Mireille Solange Nganga; Longo-Mbenza, Benjamin; Adeniyi, Oladele Vincent; Ngwidiwo, Jacques Bikaula; Katawandja, Antoine Lufimbo; Kazadi, Paul Roger Beia; Nzonzila, Alain Nganga

2017-08-23

The global burden of hematologic malignancy (HM) is rapidly rising with aging, exposure to polluted environments, and global and local climate variability all being well-established conditions of oxidative stress. However, there is currently no information on the extent and predictors of HM at Kinshasa University Clinics (KUC), DR Congo (DRC). This study evaluated the impact of bio-clinical factors, exposure to polluted environments, and interactions between global climate changes (EL Nino and La Nina) and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) on the incidence of HM. This hospital-based prospective cohort study was conducted at Kinshasa University Clinics in DR Congo. A total of 105 black African adult patients with anaemia between 2009 and 2016 were included. HM was confirmed by morphological typing according to the French-American-British (FAB) Classification System. Gender, age, exposure to traffic pollution and garages/stations, global climate variability (El Nino and La Nina), and local climate (dry and rainy seasons) were potential independent variables to predict incident HM using Cox regression analysis and Kaplan Meier curves. Out of the total 105 patients, 63 experienced incident HM, with an incidence rate of 60%. After adjusting for gender, HIV/AIDS, and other bio-clinical factors, the most significant independent predictors of HM were age ≥ 55 years (HR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.4-4.3; P = 0.003), exposure to pollution and garages or stations (HR = 4.9; 95% CI 2-12.1; P < 0.001), combined local dry season + La Nina (HR = 4.6; 95%CI 1.8-11.8; P < 0.001), and combined local dry season + El Nino (HR = 4; 95% CI 1.6-9.7; P = 0.004). HM types included acute myeloid leukaemia (28.6% n = 18), multiple myeloma (22.2% n = 14), myelodysplastic syndromes (15.9% n = 10), chronic myeloid leukaemia (15.9% n = 10), chronic lymphoid leukaemia (9.5% n = 6), and acute lymphoid leukaemia (7.9% n = 5). After adjusting for confounders using Cox regression analysis, age ≥ 55 years, exposure to pollution, combined local dry season + La Nina and combined local dry season + El Nino were the most significant predictors of incident hematologic malignancy. These findings highlight the importance of aging, pollution, the dry season, El Nino and La Nina as related to global warming as determinants of hematologic malignancies among African patients from Kinshasa, DR Congo. Cancer registries in DRC and other African countries will provide more robust database for future researches on haematological malignancies in the region.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

PubMed Central

Devaraju, N.; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-01-01

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures. PMID:25733889

Local oceanographic variability influences the performance of juvenile abalone under climate change.

PubMed

Boch, C A; Micheli, F; AlNajjar, M; Monismith, S G; Beers, J M; Bonilla, J C; Espinoza, A M; Vazquez-Vera, L; Woodson, C B

2018-04-03

Climate change is causing warming, deoxygenation, and acidification of the global ocean. However, manifestation of climate change may vary at local scales due to oceanographic conditions. Variation in stressors, such as high temperature and low oxygen, at local scales may lead to variable biological responses and spatial refuges from climate impacts. We conducted outplant experiments at two locations separated by ~2.5 km and two sites at each location separated by ~200 m in the nearshore of Isla Natividad, Mexico to assess how local ocean conditions (warming and hypoxia) may affect juvenile abalone performance. Here, we show that abalone growth and mortality mapped to variability in stress exposure across sites and locations. These insights indicate that management decisions aimed at maintaining and recovering valuable marine species in the face of climate change need to be informed by local variability in environmental conditions.

Communicating the Urgency of Climate Change to Local Government Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A.

2004-12-01

What are the challenges and obstacles in conveying scientific research and uncertainties about climate change to local government policy makers? What information do scientists need from local government practitioners to guide research efforts into producing more relevant information for the local government audience? What works and what doesn't in terms of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences? Based on over a decade of experience working with local governments around the world on greenhouse gas mitigation, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability has developed a unique perspective and valuable insight into effective communication on climate science that motivates policy action. In the United States practical actions necessary to mitigate global climate change occur largely at the local level. As the level of government closest to individual energy consumers, local governments play a large role in determining the energy intensity of communities. How can local governments be persuaded to make greenhouse gas mitigation a policy priority over the long-term? Access to relevant information is critical to achieving that commitment. Information that will persuade local officials to pursue climate protection commitments includes specific impacts of global warming to communities, the costs of adaptation versus mitigation, and the potential benefits of implementing greenhouse gas-reducing initiatives. The manner in which information is conveyed is also critically important. The scientific community is loath to advocate for specific policies, or to make determinate statements on topics for which research is ongoing. These communication hurdles can be overcome if the needs of local policy practitioners can be understood by the scientific community, and research goals can be cooperatively defined.

7 CFR 1924.104 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... to the local public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of... public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of traffic. Subdivision...

7 CFR 1924.104 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... to the local public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of... public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of traffic. Subdivision...

7 CFR 1924.104 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... to the local public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of... public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of traffic. Subdivision...

7 CFR 1924.104 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... to the local public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of... public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of traffic. Subdivision...

7 CFR 1924.104 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... to the local public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of... public body for use with local climate, soil, gradient, and volume and character of traffic. Subdivision...

Chapter 7: Developing climate-informed state-and-transition models

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; Jessica E. Halofsky; David R. Conklin; Joshua S. Halofsky; Dominique Bachelet; Becky K. Kerns

2014-01-01

Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included localized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturbances, and management...

Supporting local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through giant reed (Arundo donax L.) cultivation: An Italian case study.

PubMed

Bonfante, A; Impagliazzo, A; Fiorentino, N; Langella, G; Mori, M; Fagnano, M

2017-12-01

Bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the soil carbon stock. Although such crops are often held to be in competition with food crops and thus raise the question of current and future food security, at the same time mitigation measures are required to tackle climate change and sustain local farming communities and crop production. However, in some cases the actions envisaged for specific pedo-climatic conditions are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this frame, energy crops with high environmental adaptability and yields, such as giant reed (Arundo donax L.), may represent an opportunity to improve farm incomes, making marginal areas not suitable for food production once again productive. In so doing, three of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations would be met, namely SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy, and SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. In this work, the response of giant reed in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and expected farm incomes under climate change (2021-2050) are evaluated. The normalized water productivity index of giant reed was determined (WP; 30.1gm -2 ) by means of a SWAP agro-hydrological model, calibrated and validated on two years of a long-term field experiment. The model was used to estimate giant reed response (biomass yield) in marginal areas under climate change, and economic evaluation was performed to determine expected farm incomes (woodchips and chopped forage). The results show that woodchip production represents the most profitable option for farmers, yielding a gross margin 50% lower than ordinary high-input maize cultivation across the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

Strong influence of regional species pools on continent-wide structuring of local communities.

PubMed

Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Borregaard, Michael K; Fordyce, James A; Rahbek, Carsten; Weiser, Michael D; Dunn, Robert R; Sanders, Nathan J

2012-01-22

There is a long tradition in ecology of evaluating the relative contribution of the regional species pool and local interactions on the structure of local communities. Similarly, a growing number of studies assess the phylogenetic structure of communities, relative to that in the regional species pool, to examine the interplay between broad-scale evolutionary and fine-scale ecological processes. Finally, a renewed interest in the influence of species source pools on communities has shown that the definition of the source pool influences interpretations of patterns of community structure. We use a continent-wide dataset of local ant communities and implement ecologically explicit source pool definitions to examine the relative importance of regional species pools and local interactions for shaping community structure. Then we assess which factors underlie systematic variation in the structure of communities along climatic gradients. We find that the average phylogenetic relatedness of species in ant communities decreases from tropical to temperate regions, but the strength of this relationship depends on the level of ecological realism in the definition of source pools. We conclude that the evolution of climatic niches influences the phylogenetic structure of regional source pools and that the influence of regional source pools on local community structure is strong.

The Climate Impacts Research Consortium: Lessons Learned from the Evaluation of Co-production projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolovska, I.; Andrepont, J. A.; Lach, D.

2017-12-01

The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) is a climate-science-to-climate-action team funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), member of NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program. The internal evaluation of the last 6 years of CIRC's work focused on the co-production of knowledge process. The evaluation was based on CIRC's Reflection and Logic model and used a mixed methods design. During regular monthly meetings in 2014/15, all CIRC PIs reflected on the co-production process and presented their evaluation of the projects they worked on. Additionally, we conducted semi-structured interviews with CIRC participants, purposefully targeting key informants. The Climate Impacts Research Consortium teams also administered surveys to assess participants' experiences of the coproduction process as they were engaging in it. Identifying and cultivating an informant from the local stakeholder group with deep, accessible roots within the target community can lead to better coproduction results than having to build those relationships from naught. Across projects, most participants agreed that the project increased their understanding of their area's hazards and by the end of the project most participants were confident the project would produce useful results for themselves. Finally, most participants intended to share what they had learned from this experience with their colleagues and we found that co-production built capacities necessary for communities to incorporate climate change in discussions even after the end of CIRC's participation. During the projects, the involvement of non-traditional participants along with experts was critical to success and a lot of work and preparation needs to be put into the planning of any co-production meeting to overcome various barriers to communication and build trust.

Global markets and the differential effects of climate and weather on conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, K. C.; Hsiang, S. M.; Cane, M. A.

2011-12-01

Both climate and weather have been attributed historically as possible drivers for violence. Previous empirical studies have either focused on isolating local idiosyncratic weather variation or have conflated weather with spatially coherent climatic changes. This paper provides the first study of the differential impacts of climate and weather variation by employing methods developed in earlier work linking the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with the onset of civil conflicts. By separating the effects of climate from local weather, we are able to test possible mechanisms by which atmospheric changes can cause violence. It is generally difficult to separate the effect of year-to-year climate variations from other global events that might drive conflict. We avoid this problem by examining the set of tropical countries that are strongly teleconnected to ENSO. For this region, the ENSO cycle parallels the common year-to-year pattern of violence. Using ENSO, we isolate the influence of climatic changes from other global determinants of violence and compare it with the effect of local weather variations. We find that while climate affects the onset of civil conflicts in teleconnected countries, local weather has no significant effect. Productivity overall as well as across major sectors is more affected by local weather than by climatic variation. This is particularly evident in the agricultural sector where total value and cereal yield decline much greater from a 1°C increase in local temperature than a 1°C increase in ENSO. However, when examining the effect on food prices, we find that ENSO is associated with a large and statistically significant increase in cereal prices but no effect from hotter local temperatures. Altogether, this evidence points toward the ability of global and regional commodity markets to insure against the effects of local weather variation and their limitations in containing losses from aggregate shocks such as El Nino events. We posit that conflict reacts to climate and not weather because climatic events trigger not only local agricultural losses but also increased food prices as a result of an aggregate decline in output. This is because in an open economy, idiosyncratic weather variation alone would not lead to higher prices. These results are informative in understanding the impacts of anthropogenic global change, which would yield variation exhibiting spatial coherence beyond the extent of existing markets.

Plasticity and stress tolerance override local adaptation in the responses of Mediterranean holm oak seedlings to drought and cold.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Pías, Beatriz; Lemos-Filho, José P; Valladares, Fernando

2009-01-01

Plant populations of widely distributed species experience a broad range of environmental conditions that can be faced by phenotypic plasticity or ecotypic differentiation and local adaptation. The strategy chosen will determine a population's ability to respond to climate change. To explore this, we grew Quercus ilex (L.) seedlings from acorns collected at six selected populations from climatically contrasting localities and evaluated their response to drought and late season cold events. Maximum photosynthetic rate (A(max)), instantaneous water use efficiency (iWUE), and thermal tolerance to freeze and heat (estimated from chlorophyll fluorescence versus temperature curves) were measured in 5-month-old seedlings in control (no stress), drought (water-stressed), and cold (low suboptimal temperature) conditions. The observed responses were similar for the six populations: drought decreased A(max) and increased iWUE, and cold reduced A(max) and iWUE. All the seedlings maintained photosynthetic activity under adverse conditions (drought and cold), and rapidly increased their iWUE by closing stomata when exposed to drought. Heat and freeze tolerances were similarly high for seedlings from all the populations, and they were significantly increased by drought and cold, respectively; and were positively related to each other. Differences in seedling performance across populations were primarily induced by maternal effects mediated by seed size and to a lesser extent by idiosyncratic physiologic responses to drought and low temperatures. Tolerance to multiple stresses together with the capacity to physiologically acclimate to heat waves and cold snaps may allow Q. ilex to cope with the increasingly stressful conditions imposed by climate change. Lack of evidence of physiologic seedling adaptation to local climate may reflect opposing selection pressures to complex, multidimensional environmental conditions operating within the distribution range of this species.

Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

2017-12-01

One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing

2017-01-01

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: a four-city study.

PubMed

White-Newsome, Jalonne L; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C; Parker, Edith A

2014-02-13

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ-cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

PubMed Central

White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A.; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C.; Parker, Edith A.

2014-01-01

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24531122

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

Building the framework for climate change adaptation in the urban areas using participatory approach: the Czech Republic experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Hubatová, Marie; Lupač, Miroslav; Pondělíček, Michael; Šafařík, Miroslav; Šilhánková, Vladimíra; Vačkář, David

2016-04-01

The Czech Republic has experienced numerous extreme hydrometeorological / climatological events such as floods (significant ones in 1997, 2002, 2010, 2013), droughts (2013, 2015), heat waves (2015) and windstorms (2007) during past decades. These events are generally attributed to the ongoing climate change and caused loss of lives and significant material damages (up to several % of GDP in some years), especially in urban areas. To initiate the adaptation process of urban areas, the main objective was to prepare a framework for creating climate change adaptation strategies of individual cities reflecting physical-geographical and socioeconomical conditions of the Czech Republic. Three pilot cities (Hradec Králové, Žďár nad Sázavou, Dobru\\vska) were used to optimize entire procedure. Two sets of participatory seminars were organised in order to involve all key stakeholders (the city council, department of the environment, department of the crisis management, hydrometeorological institute, local experts, ...) into the process of creation of the adaptation strategy from its early stage. Lesson learned for the framework were related especially to its applicability on a local level, which is largely a matter of the understandability of the concept. Finally, this illustrative and widely applicable framework (so called 'road map to adaptation strategy') includes five steps: (i) analysis of existing strategies and plans on national, regional and local levels; (ii) analysing climate-change related hazards and key vulnerabilities; (iii) identification of adaptation needs, evaluation of existing adaptation capacity and formulation of future adaptation priorities; (iv) identification of limits and barriers for the adaptation (economical, environmental, ...); and (v) selection of specific types of adaptation measures reflecting identified adaptation needs and formulated adaptation priorities. Keywords: climate change adaptation (CCA); urban areas; participatory approach; road map

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Local climatic adaptation in a widespread microorganism.

PubMed

Leducq, Jean-Baptiste; Charron, Guillaume; Samani, Pedram; Dubé, Alexandre K; Sylvester, Kayla; James, Brielle; Almeida, Pedro; Sampaio, José Paulo; Hittinger, Chris Todd; Bell, Graham; Landry, Christian R

2014-02-22

Exploring the ability of organisms to locally adapt is critical for determining the outcome of rapid climate changes, yet few studies have addressed this question in microorganisms. We investigated the role of a heterogeneous climate on adaptation of North American populations of the wild yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus. We found abundant among-strain variation for fitness components across a range of temperatures, but this variation was only partially explained by climatic variation in the distribution area. Most of fitness variation was explained by the divergence of genetically distinct groups, distributed along a north-south cline, suggesting that these groups have adapted to distinct climatic conditions. Within-group fitness components were correlated with climatic conditions, illustrating that even ubiquitous microorganisms locally adapt and harbour standing genetic variation for climate-related traits. Our results suggest that global climatic changes could lead to adaptation to new conditions within groups, or changes in their geographical distributions.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

2017-12-01

The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Climate Literacy: Springboard to Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, B.; Bader, D.

2011-12-01

Research indicates that the public views zoos and aquariums as reliable and trusted sources for information on conservation (Ocean Project, 2009). The Aquarium of the Pacific is using NOAA's Science on a Sphere (SOS)° and linked flat screens to convey climate concepts to the public and serve as a model for how aquariums can promote climate literacy. The Ocean Science Center houses the SOS and is designed to immerse our visitors in an experience that extends from the sphere, to our live animals, and to our public programming. The first SOS exhibit, the sea level rise story, opened as the cornerstone of an aquarium-wide climate literacy strategy. Large panels next to the SOS prompts visitors to pledge actions to reduce their personal carbon footprint. The exhibit objectives were to provide a visual presentation that conveys a dramatic story about sea level rise, and to engage the audience in confronting the impact of sea level rise, and the local implications. The Aquarium utilized Yale's Six Americas survey instrument during summer 2010 to measure our audience interpretations of and responses to climate change. The survey showed that 78% of visitors categorized themselves as either alarmed or concerned about climate change, greater than the national average. Thus our climate literacy programs do not focus on convincing visitors of climate change and its causes, but on encouraging adaptive responses to varying scenarios. University of California, Berkeley, Lawrence Hall of Science Center for Research Evaluation and Assessment (REA) conducted a pre-opening evaluation of the exhibit's impact. The participants, 58% of whom were families with children, did not want to know more about climate change, but wanted tangible activities they could engage in to mitigate human induced effects, and more details about the impact of climate change on marine animals. REA stated that, "the sea level rise programs (both facilitated and non-facilitated) are well positioned to be successful and effective at the goal of helping visitors understand the very real threat of sea level rise and inspiring them to take action." (REA, May 2011). REA also found that 31% of the Spanish-speaking visitors thought the Spanish captioning was important. Census data indicates that the local Hispanic population has grown 27.8% over the past decade, so translation will continue to be an important way to reach a diverse spectrum of peoples. The Six Americas survey of the Aquarium did not sample enough Spanish speaking visitors to produce meaningful results, and the Aquarium is working to resolve that issue. The Aquarium is developing another program for the SOS, marine ecosystems, connecting climate literacy messages to the live animal collection. REA will complete its evaluation of both programs in 2012, and the Aquarium will again conduct the Six Americas survey. Conveying climate literacy in an impactful way requires innovation and constant updates. The Aquarium uses informal education methodology combined with scientific discipline to bring actionable solutions to over 1.4 million visitors each year.

Evaluation of improved land use and canopy representation in BEIS v3.61 with biogenic VOC measurements in California

EPA Science Inventory

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) participate in reactions that can lead to secondarily formed ozone and particulate matter (PM) impacting air quality and climate. BVOC emissions are important inputs to chemical transport models applied on local to global scales but cons...

Urban Climate Station Site Selection Through Combined Digital Surface Model and Sun Angle Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kidd, Chris; Chapman, Lee

2012-01-01

Meteorological measurements within urban areas are becoming increasingly important due to the accentuating effects of climate change upon the Urban Heat Island (UHI). However, ensuring that such measurements are representative of the local area is often difficult due to the diversity of the urban environment. The evaluation of sites is important for both new sites and for the relocation of established sites to ensure that long term changes in the meteorological and climatological conditions continue to be faithfully recorded. Site selection is traditionally carried out in the field using both local knowledge and visual inspection. This paper exploits and assesses the use of lidar-derived digital surface models (DSMs) to quantitatively aid the site selection process. This is acheived by combining the DSM with a solar model, first to generate spatial maps of sky view factors and sun-hour potential and second, to generate site-specific views of the horizon. The results show that such a technique is a useful first-step approach to identify key sites that may be further evaluated for the location of meteorological stations within urban areas.

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Stability in a changing world - palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years.

PubMed

Olivares, Ingrid; Svenning, Jens-Christian; van Bodegom, Peter M; Valencia, Renato; Balslev, Henrik

2017-03-01

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and local public health in the United States: preparedness, programs and perceptions of local public health department directors.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Chadwick, Amy; McBride, Dennis; Chuk, Michelle; Ebi, Kristie L; Balbus, John

2008-07-30

While climate change is inherently a global problem, its public health impacts will be experienced most acutely at the local and regional level, with some jurisdictions likely to be more burdened than others. The public health infrastructure in the U.S. is organized largely as an interlocking set of public agencies at the federal, state and local level, with lead responsibility for each city or county often residing at the local level. To understand how directors of local public health departments view and are responding to climate change as a public health issue, we conducted a telephone survey with 133 randomly selected local health department directors, representing a 61% response rate. A majority of respondents perceived climate change to be a problem in their jurisdiction, a problem they viewed as likely to become more common or severe over the next 20 years. Only a small minority of respondents, however, had yet made climate change adaptation or prevention a top priority for their health department. This discrepancy between problem recognition and programmatic responses may be due, in part, to several factors: most respondents felt personnel in their health department--and other key stakeholders in their community--had a lack of knowledge about climate change; relatively few respondents felt their own health department, their state health department, or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had the necessary expertise to help them create an effective mitigation or adaptation plan for their jurisdiction; and most respondents felt that their health department needed additional funding, staff and staff training to respond effectively to climate change. These data make clear that climate change adaptation and prevention are not currently major activities at most health departments, and that most, if not all, local health departments will require assistance in making this transition. We conclude by making the case that, through their words and actions, local health departments and their staff can and should play a role in alerting members of their community about the prospect of public health impacts from climate change in their jurisdiction.

Climate Change and Local Public Health in the United States: Preparedness, Programs and Perceptions of Local Public Health Department Directors

PubMed Central

Maibach, Edward W.; Chadwick, Amy; McBride, Dennis; Chuk, Michelle; Ebi, Kristie L.; Balbus, John

2008-01-01

While climate change is inherently a global problem, its public health impacts will be experienced most acutely at the local and regional level, with some jurisdictions likely to be more burdened than others. The public health infrastructure in the U.S. is organized largely as an interlocking set of public agencies at the federal, state and local level, with lead responsibility for each city or county often residing at the local level. To understand how directors of local public health departments view and are responding to climate change as a public health issue, we conducted a telephone survey with 133 randomly selected local health department directors, representing a 61% response rate. A majority of respondents perceived climate change to be a problem in their jurisdiction, a problem they viewed as likely to become more common or severe over the next 20 years. Only a small minority of respondents, however, had yet made climate change adaptation or prevention a top priority for their health department. This discrepancy between problem recognition and programmatic responses may be due, in part, to several factors: most respondents felt personnel in their health department–and other key stakeholders in their community–had a lack of knowledge about climate change; relatively few respondents felt their own health department, their state health department, or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had the necessary expertise to help them create an effective mitigation or adaptation plan for their jurisdiction; and most respondents felt that their health department needed additional funding, staff and staff training to respond effectively to climate change. These data make clear that climate change adaptation and prevention are not currently major activities at most health departments, and that most, if not all, local health departments will require assistance in making this transition. We conclude by making the case that, through their words and actions, local health departments and their staff can and should play a role in alerting members of their community about the prospect of public health impacts from climate change in their jurisdiction. PMID:18665266

Towards the Goal of Modular Climate Data Services: An Overview of NCPP Applications and Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, B. W.; Cinquini, L.; Treshansky, A.; Murphy, S.; DeLuca, C.

2013-12-01

In August 2013, the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform (NCPP) organized a workshop focusing on the quantitative evaluation of downscaled climate data products (QED-2013). The QED-2013 workshop focused on real-world application problems drawn from several sectors (e.g. hydrology, ecology, environmental health, agriculture), and required that downscaled downscaled data products be dynamically accessed, generated, manipulated, annotated, and evaluated. The cyberinfrastructure elements that were integrated to support the workshop included (1) a wiki-based project hosting environment (Earth System CoG) with an interface to data services provided by an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node; (2) metadata tools provided by the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) collaboration; and (3) a Python-based library OpenClimateGIS (OCGIS) for subsetting and converting NetCDF-based climate data to GIS and tabular formats. Collectively, this toolset represents a first deployment of a 'ClimateTranslator' that enables users to access, interpret, and apply climate information at local and regional scales. This presentation will provide an overview of these components above, how they were used in the workshop, and discussion of current and potential integration. The long-term strategy for this software stack is to offer the suite of services described on a customizable, per-project basis. Additional detail on the three components is below. (1) Earth System CoG is a web-based collaboration environment that integrates data discovery and access services with tools for supporting governance and the organization of information. QED-2013 utilized these capabilities to share with workshop participants a suite of downscaled datasets, associated images derived from those datasets, and metadata files describing the downscaling techniques involved. The collaboration side of CoG was used for workshop organization, discussion, and results. (2) The ES-DOC Questionnaire, Viewer, and Comparator are web-based tools for the creation and use of model and experiment documentation. Workshop participants used the Questionnaire to generate metadata on regional downscaling models and statistical downscaling methods, and the Viewer to display the results. A prototype Comparator was available to compare properties across dynamically downscaled models. (3) OCGIS is a Python (v2.7) package designed for geospatial manipulation, subsetting, computation, and translation of Climate and Forecasting (CF)-compliant climate datasets - either stored in local NetCDF files, or files served through THREDDS data servers.

Should Climatologists and Spatial Planners Interact? Weather regulation as an ecosystem service to be considered in the land-use planning field.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, Mathieu; De Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Strada, Susanna; Stéfanon, Marc; Torre, André

2016-04-01

In the last decade, climate considerations have received increasing attention from urban designers and land-use planners. Because of legal binding requirements and/or a growing awareness regarding climate change, scholars and practitioners have already started to think about urban designs and land-use patterns that may contribute to face the climate change challenge. (e.g. Bulkeley, 2006; Shaw et al., 2007; Davoudi et al., 2009) The thorough analysis of spatial planning documents - e.g. SCoT (Schéma de Cohérence Territoriale) adopted in the Île-de-France Region (i.e. Paris region) - we have made and will report on has revealed the two main ways through which climate change action is thought about and for which measures are encouraged at the territorial level: 1. via mitigation strategy, i.e. solutions to either limit atmospheric greenhouse gases emissions or to capture them (e.g. urban structures that aim at limiting transportation-related emissions by promoting compact settlements, bioclimatic principles in urban and architectural designs that aim at reducing energetic consumption). Such solutions will in fine affect the global level of CO2 in the atmosphere, and thereby contribute to limit global warming. Local/regional effects may however not be felt by citizens and decision makers as they depend on the magnitude of the changes at the global scale; 2. via adaptation strategy, i.e. solutions to cope with adverse local/regional consequences of climate change. The global climate in this case is seen as a driver of local changes. Actions will be undertaken to moderate negative impacts of global climate change, potentially at costs, by reducing the vulnerability of local human communities and biological ecosystems on the concerned area (e.g. flood prevention systems, countermeasures to urban heat islands). We can wonder whether this traditional way of approaching the climate change action, based on a double mitigation-adaptation strategy, does not restrain the scope of solutions to be considered in the spatial planning field. Regional meteorology/climatology has demonstrated over the past decades that changes in land-uses and/or land cover may have substantial impacts on a) mean regional/local climate (Lobell & Bonfils, 2008), b) the magnitude and duration of extreme events (e.g. Marshall et al., 2004, Davin et al., 2014), c) air quality and therefore human's and ecosystems' health (e.g. Corchnoy et al. 1992, Hewitt et al., 2009). Such studies support the hypothesis that a careful regional climate modelling may help to refine the global climate projections and assess the local benefits or drawbacks of various land use/land cover policies. There is however a lack of studies at such spatial scales (from local to regional) to carefully quantify the impacts realistic land scenarios may have on atmospheric conditions (e.g. temperature, humidity, air quality, winds, incoming radiation). We have started to think about ways to evaluate those at the French national scale. That implies the choice of ad-hoc models, scenarios, data for evaluation, … that we will discuss. Our proposal is that in fine the regulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (where we live) may be considered as a service that land uses/cover/management may impact and that we need to study as much as other ecosystem services are. ____________ References: Bulkeley, H. (2006) A changing climate for spatial planning? In: Planning Theory and Practice, 7(2): 203-214. Corchnoy, S.B.; Arey, J.; Atkinson, R. (1992) Hydrocarbon emission from twelve urban shade trees of the Los Angeles, California, air basin. In: Atmospheric Environment, 26B(3): 339-348. Davoudi, S.; Crawford, Jenny; Mehmood, A. (2009) Planning for Climate Change: Strategies for Mitigation and Adaptation for Spatial Planners. London: Earthscan, 344 p. Davin, E. L.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Ciais, P.; Olioso, A.; Wang, T. (2014) Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27): 9757-9761. Hewitt, C. N.; MacKenzie, A. R.; Di Carlo, P.; Di Marco, C. F.; Dorsey, J. R.; Evans, M.; Fowler, D.; Gallagher, M. W.; Hopkins, J. R.; Jones, C. E.; Langford, B.; Lee, J. D.; Lewis, A. C.; Lim, S. F.; McQuaid, J.; Misztal, P.; Moller, S. J.; Monks, P. S.; Nemitz, E.; Oram, D. E.; Owen, S. M.; Phillips, G. J.; Pugh, T. A M; Pyle, J. A.; Reeves, C. E.; Ryder, J.; Siong, J.; Skiba, U.; Stewart, D. J. (2009) Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ground-level ozone pollution. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS, 106(44): 18447-18451. Lobell, D. B.; Bonfils, C. (2008) The Effect of Irrigation on Regional Temperatures: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Trends in California, 1934-2002. In: Journal of Climate, 21(10): 2063-2071. Shaw, R.; Colley, M. & Connell, R. (2007) Climate change adaptation by design: a guide for sustainable communities. London: Town and Country Planning Association, 50 p.

Single-Locus versus Multilocus Patterns of Local Adaptation to Climate in Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus, Pinaceae)

PubMed Central

Zinck, John W. R.

2016-01-01

Natural plant populations are often adapted to their local climate and environmental conditions, and populations of forest trees offer some of the best examples of this pattern. However, little empirical work has focused on the relative contribution of single-locus versus multilocus effects to the genetic architecture of local adaptation in plants/forest trees. Here, we employ eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) to test the hypothesis that it is the inter-genic effects that primarily drive climate-induced local adaptation. The genetic structure of 29 range-wide natural populations of eastern white pine was determined in relation to local climatic factors using both a reference set of SSR markers, and SNPs located in candidate genes putatively involved in adaptive response to climate. Comparisons were made between marker sets using standard single-locus outlier analysis, single-locus and multilocus environment association analyses and a novel implementation of Population Graphs. Magnitudes of population structure were similar between the two marker sets. Outlier loci consistent with diversifying selection were rare for both SNPs and SSRs. However, genetic distances based on the multilocus among population covariances (cGD) were significantly more correlated to climate, even after correcting for spatial effects, for SNPs as compared to SSRs. Coalescent simulations confirmed that the differences in mutation rates between SSRs and SNPs did not affect the topologies of the Population Graphs, and hence values of cGD and their correlations with associated climate variables. We conclude that the multilocus covariances among populations primarily reflect adaptation to local climate and environment in eastern white pine. This result highlights the complexity of the genetic architecture of adaptive traits, as well as the need to consider multilocus effects in studies of local adaptation. PMID:27387485

Urban field classification by "local climate zones" in a medium-sized Central European city: the case of Olomouc (Czech Republic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehnert, Michal; Geletič, Jan; Husák, Jan; Vysoudil, Miroslav

2015-11-01

The stations of the Metropolitan Station Network in Olomouc (Czech Republic) were assigned to local climatic zones, and the temperature characteristics of the stations were compared. The classification of local climatic zones represents an up-to-date concept for the unification of the characterization of the neighborhoods of climate research sites. This study is one of the first to provide a classification of existing stations within local climate zones. Using a combination of GIS-based analyses and field research, the values of geometric and surface cover properties were calculated, and the stations were subsequently classified into the local climate zones. It turned out that the classification of local climatic zones can be efficiently used for representative documentation of the neighborhood of the climate stations. To achieve a full standardization of the description of the neighborhood of a station, the classification procedures, including the methods used for the processing of spatial data and methods used for the indication of specific local characteristics, must be also standardized. Although the main patterns of temperature differences between the stations with a compact rise, those with an open rise and the stations with no rise or sparsely built areas were evident; the air temperature also showed considerable differences within particular zones. These differences were largely caused by various geometric layout of development and by unstandardized placement of the stations. For the direct comparison of temperatures between zones, particularly those stations which have been placed in such a way that they are as representative as possible for the zone in question should be used in further research.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

Where High-Tech Meets High-Touch: an example of effective cross-disciplinary collaboration in education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzhauer, B.; Mooney, M. E.

2012-12-01

How can non-formal education programs effectively blend hands-on, place-based field science lessons with technology and digital media to teach abstract global concepts in a local setting? Using climate change as an overarching concept, the Aldo Leopold Nature Center (ALNC) in Madison, WI, is developing exhibits and digital curricula, strengthened through partnerships with local and national experts from scientific and education fields, to effectively increase the public's interest in and understanding of science and technology, how the world works, and what we can do to adapt, mitigate, and innovate sustainable solutions. The exhibits and multimedia content, centered on topics such as climate, energy, weather, and phenology, have been developed in consultation with partners like the National Academy of Sciences and various departments at the University of Wisconsin (UW). Outdoor "high-touch" programs are complemented with "high-tech" exhibits and media, including touchscreen kiosks and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Science On a Sphere® global display system, tying together multimedia experiences with peer-reviewed cutting-edge science to ensure maximum comprehension by appealing and connecting to learners of all ages and learning modalities. The curriculum is being developed in alignment with local and national education standards and science and climate literacy frameworks (such as "The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences," U.S. Global Change Research Program / U.S. Climate Change Science Program). Its digital format allows it to be easily adapted to visitors' learning styles and cognitive levels and updated with relevant new content such as real-time climate data or current visualizations from the UW Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Drawing upon ALNC's award-winning environmental education experiences, professional development networks such as NOAA's Climate Stewards Education Program, and existing resources for teaching through formal STEM education, ALNC has combined the unique benefits of place-based outdoor citizen-science in the community setting with digital, multimedia, and interactive components to address local, regional, and global scientific concepts with all audiences of all ages. This innovative, replicable and broadly accessible approach, geared towards formal school groups and the general public in a non-formal educational setting, is being piloted, evaluated, and disseminated through a variety of networks and professional development in order to serve as a model of continued collaborative education.;

Projections, plans, policies and politics in Prince George: reflections on five years of climate change adaptation in a northern Canadian community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picketts, I. M.; Dery, S. J.; Curry, J.

2013-12-01

The City of Prince George, in central British Columbia, Canada, has partnered with academics and collaborators for over five years to address climate change adaptation at the local level. The first phase of research involved conducting a detailed overview of past climate trends and future projections for the region using the outputs of GCMs and downscaled RCMs. This information was communicated to senior local staff and community members, and feedback was applied to create a detailed adaptation strategy for the City, which identified priority impacts and outlined potential strategies to address them at the local level. The top priority impacts for Prince George are forest changes, increased flooding, and impacts to transportation infrastructure. During a second implementation phase of the project, eight local initiatives were completed focusing on: incorporating adaptation into a local sustainability plan and land use plan; exploring impacts related to forests, flooding and transportation infrastructure; and assessing trends and projections in freeze-thaw cycles and heavy rainfall events. This presentation will outline the adaptation initiatives undertaken in the City of Prince George during the second phase of research, and evaluate their effectiveness through reflections from interviews with local planners, engineers, managers, community champions and politicians. The initiatives deemed to be most successful - and most likely to be implemented - focus on topics that: are of high public concern; have clear cost implications; incorporate adaptation into policy; and/or incorporate adaptation into an ongoing project. Outcomes highlight challenges local researchers, practitioners and leaders face as they strive to implement proactive adaptation measures in policy and practice without strong support from policy and professional practices, and with a paucity of successful case study examples to build upon. Outcomes also reveal challenges as municipalities strive to do ';more with less' and work within the reality that adaptation is not generally a high public or political priority. Internal capacity and external support are vital for adaptation success at the local level.

Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

2014-12-01

The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which provides a data driven approach to further develop and improve the National Climate Indicators System.

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Emerging Forms of Climate Protection Governance: Urban Initiatives in the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. K.; Brunner, E.

2006-12-01

Changes in climate patterns are expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, with adverse impacts on urban populations currently stressed by poverty, health and economic inequities. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanization of poverty exists, with increased challenges for local governments to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities. In the context of these two overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritized for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive and mitigative responses to climate change. Urban managers, and transnational networks of municipalities and non-state actors, have taken an increasingly active role in climate protection, through research, policies, programs and agreements on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Concerns for urban impacts of climate change include the potential increase in frequency and intensity of damaging extreme weather events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, heavy rainfall or drought, and coastal flooding and erosion, and potentially adverse impacts on infrastructure, energy systems, and public health. Higher average summertime temperatures in temperate zone cities are also associated with environmental and public health liabilities such as decreased air quality and increased peak electrical demand. We review municipal climate protection programs, generally categorized as approaches based on technological innovation (e.g., new materials); changes in behavior and public education (e.g., use of cooling centers); and improvements in urban design (e.g., zoning for mixed land-use; the use of water, vegetation and plazas to reduce the urban heat island effect). Climate protection initiatives in three European cities are assessed within the context of the global collective efforts enacted by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Initiatives in Stockholm, London and Milan provide evidence that local actions are inevitable and of central importance to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, the urban heat island effect, and extreme weather events.

How the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) Has Collaboratively Increased Regional Collective Impacts on Climate Literacy Via Networks of Diverse Stakeholders Engaging in Multiple Reinforcing Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.

2016-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai`i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. PCEP partners include universities, education nonprofits, state or country offices/ministries of education, local ecological nonprofits, and a variety of community organizations. Partners contribute and share expertise in climate science, local ecological knowledge, K-12 education in the Pacific island region, science and environmental education, community college education, learning science, indigenous navigation, and oceanography. Over the past six years, PCEP has engaged with regional school systems and communities in a wide variety of ways that complement and reinforce each other. Highlighted activities include improving country and state climate science education standards; focusing on place-based local ecological knowledge and skills in working with schools and communities; developing and disseminating formal education resources such as books and web resources that focus on local contexts and skills rather than contextually inappropriate mainland the textbooks; developing and implementing professional development for teachers; and supporting local ways of knowing by gathering and sharing local stories of climate change; and promoting an emphasis on climate adaptation strategies that increase resilience of natural environments and community systems.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Determining Water Quality Trends in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed in the Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kynett, K.; Azimi-Gaylon, S.; Doidic, C.

2014-12-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the Americas and is a resource of local, State, and national significance. The Delta is simultaneously the most critical component of California's water supply, a primary focus of the state's ecological conservation measures, and a vital resource deeply imperiled by degraded water quality. Delta waterbodies are identified as impaired by salinity, excess nutrients, low dissolved oxygen, pathogens, pesticides, heavy metals, and other contaminants. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the impacts of existing stressors in the Delta and magnify the challenges of managing this natural resource. A clear understanding of the current state of the watershed is needed to better inform scientists, decision makers, and the public about potential impacts from climate change. The Delta Watershed Initiative Network (Delta WIN) leverages the ecological benefits of healthy watersheds, and enhances, expands and creates opportunities for greater watershed health by coordinating with agencies, established programs, and local organizations. At this critical junction, Delta WIN is coordinating data integration and analysis to develop better understanding of the existing and emerging water quality concerns. As first steps, Delta WIN is integrating existing water quality data, analyzing trends, and monitoring to fill data gaps and to evaluate indicators of climate change impacts. Available data will be used for trend analysis; Delta WIN will continue to monitor where data is incomplete and new questions arise. Understanding how climate change conditions may affect water quality will be used to inform efforts to build resilience and maintain water quality levels which sustain aquatic life and human needs. Assessments of historical and new data will aid in recognition of potential climate change impacts and in initiating implementation of best management practices in collaboration with State and local agencies. Ultimately, Delta WIN can inform responsive science and adaptive management in other estuaries and critical natural resource areas facing times of change.

Optimized circulation and weather type classifications relating large-scale atmospheric conditions to local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, C.; Beck, C.; Jacobeit, J.

2013-12-01

In the last decades the critical increase of the emission of air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, sulfur oxides and particulate matter especially in urban areas has become a problem for the environment as well as human health. Several studies confirm a risk of high concentration episodes of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) for the respiratory tract or cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore it is known that local meteorological and large scale atmospheric conditions are important influencing factors on local PM10 concentrations. With climate changing rapidly, these connections need to be better understood in order to provide estimates of climate change related consequences for air quality management purposes. For quantifying the link between large-scale atmospheric conditions and local PM10 concentrations circulation- and weather type classifications are used in a number of studies by using different statistical approaches. Thus far only few systematic attempts have been made to modify consisting or to develop new weather- and circulation type classifications in order to improve their ability to resolve local PM10 concentrations. In this contribution existing weather- and circulation type classifications, performed on daily 2.5 x 2.5 gridded parameters of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, are optimized with regard to their discriminative power for local PM10 concentrations at 49 Bavarian measurement sites for the period 1980 to 2011. Most of the PM10 stations are situated in urban areas covering urban background, traffic and industry related pollution regimes. The range of regimes is extended by a few rural background stations. To characterize the correspondence between the PM10 measurements of the different stations by spatial patterns, a regionalization by an s-mode principal component analysis is realized on the high-pass filtered data. The optimization of the circulation- and weather types is implemented using two representative classification approaches, a k-means cluster analysis and an objective version of the Grosswetter types. They have been run with varying spatial and temporal settings as well as modified numbers of classes. As an evaluation metric for their performance several skill scores are used. Taking into account the outcome further attempts towards the optimization of circulation type classifications are made. These are varying meteorological input parameters (e.g. geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind, specific humidity, temperature) on several pressure levels (1000, 850 and 500 hPa) and combinations of these variables. All classification variants are again evaluated. Based on these analyses it is further intended to develop robust downscaling models for estimating possible future - climate change induced - variations of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria from scenario runs of global CMIP5 climate models.

Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Pashupati; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2011-10-23

The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.

Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

2013-09-01

Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Range-wide parallel climate-associated genomic clines in Atlantic salmon

PubMed Central

Stanley, Ryan R. E.; Wringe, Brendan F.; Guijarro-Sabaniel, Javier; Bourret, Vincent; Bernatchez, Louis; Bentzen, Paul; Beiko, Robert G.; Gilbey, John; Clément, Marie; Bradbury, Ian R.

2017-01-01

Clinal variation across replicated environmental gradients can reveal evidence of local adaptation, providing insight into the demographic and evolutionary processes that shape intraspecific diversity. Using 1773 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms we evaluated latitudinal variation in allele frequency for 134 populations of North American and European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We detected 84 (4.74%) and 195 (11%) loci showing clinal patterns in North America and Europe, respectively, with 12 clinal loci in common between continents. Clinal single nucleotide polymorphisms were evenly distributed across the salmon genome and logistic regression revealed significant associations with latitude and seasonal temperatures, particularly average spring temperature in both continents. Loci displaying parallel clines were associated with several metabolic and immune functions, suggesting a potential basis for climate-associated adaptive differentiation. These climate-based clines collectively suggest evidence of large-scale environmental associated differences on either side of the North Atlantic. Our results support patterns of parallel evolution on both sides of the North Atlantic, with evidence of both similar and divergent underlying genetic architecture. The identification of climate-associated genomic clines illuminates the role of selection and demographic processes on intraspecific diversity in this species and provides a context in which to evaluate the impacts of climate change. PMID:29291123

Climate Voices: Bridging Scientist Citizens and Local Communities across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Ristvey, J. D., Jr.

2016-12-01

Based out of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has more than 400 participants across the United States that volunteer their time as scientist citizens in their local communities. Climate Voices experts engage in nonpartisan conversations about the local impacts of climate change with groups such as Rotary clubs, collaborate with faith-based groups on climate action initiatives, and disseminate their research findings to K-12 teachers and classrooms through webinars. To support their participants, Climate Voices develops partnerships with networks of community groups, provides trainings on how to engage these communities, and actively seeks community feedback. In this presentation, we will share case studies of science-community collaborations, including meta-analyses of collaborations and lessons learned.

Quantifying the effect of Tmax extreme events on local adaptation to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldon, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Lizaso, Jon; Dosio, Alessandro; Sanchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2015-04-01

Extreme events of Tmax can threaten maize production on Andalusia (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011). The objective of this work is to attempt a quantification of the effects of Tmax extreme events on the previously identified (Gabaldón et al., 2013) local adaptation strategies to climate change of irrigated maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of the 21st century. This study is focused on five Andalusia locations. Local adaptation strategies identified consisted on combinations of changes on sowing dates and choice of cultivar (Gabaldón et al., 2013). Modified cultivar features were the duration of phenological phases and the grain filling rate. The phenological and yield simulations with the adaptative changes were obtained from a modelling chain: current simulated climate and future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were taken from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). After bias correcting these data for temperature and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) crop simulations were generated by the CERES-maize model (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, previously calibrated and validated. Quantification of the effects of extreme Tmax on maize yield was computed for different phenological stages following Teixeira et al. (2013). A heat stress index was computed; this index assumes that yield-damage intensity due to heat stress increases linearly from 0.0 at a critical temperature to a maximum of 1.0 at a limit temperature. The decrease of crop yield is then computed by a normalized production damage index which combines attainable yield and heat stress index for each location. Selection of the most suitable adaptation strategy will be reviewed and discussed in light of the quantified effect on crop yield of the projected change of Tmax extreme events. This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI) of EU and is financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Gabaldón C, Lorite IJ, Mínguez MI, Dosio A, Sánchez-Sánchez E and Ruiz-Ramos M, 2013. Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 15, EGU2013-13625, 2013. EGU General Assembly 2013, April 2013, Vienna, Austria. Jones C.A. and J.R. Kiniry. 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation model of maize growth and development. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station. Ruiz-Ramos M., E. Sanchez, C. Galllardo, and M.I. Minguez. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11: 3275-3291. Teixeira EI, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Walter C, Ewert F. Global hotspots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agric For Meteorol. 2013;170(15):206-215.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

A tool to evaluate local biophysical effects on temperature due to land cover change transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, Lucia; Caporaso, Luca; Duveiller, Gregory; Cescatti, Alessandro; Abad-Viñas, Raul; Grassi, Giacomo; Quesada, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Land Cover Changes (LCC) affect local, regional and global climate through biophysical variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. Assessment of the full climate impacts of anthropogenic LCC are incomplete without considering biophysical effects, but the high level of uncertainties in quantifying their impacts to date have made it impractical to offer clear advice on which policy makers could act. To overcome this barrier, we provide a tool to evaluate the biophysical impact of a matrix of land cover transitions, following a tiered methodological approach similar to the one provided by the IPCC to estimate the biogeochemical effects, i.e. through three levels of methodological complexity, from Tier 1 (i.e. default method and factors) to Tier 3 (i.e. specific methods and factors). In particular, the tool provides guidance for quantitative assessment of changes in temperature following a land cover transition. The tool focuses on temperature for two main reasons (i) it is the main variable of interest for policy makers at local and regional level, and (ii) temperature is able to summarize the impact of radiative and non-radiative processes following LULCC. The potential changes in annual air temperature that can be expected from various land cover transitions are derived from a dedicated dataset constructed by the JRC in the framework of the LUC4C FP7 project. The inputs for the dataset are air temperature values derived from satellite Earth Observation data (MODIS) and land cover characterization from the ESA Climate Change Initiative product reclassified into their IPCC land use category equivalent. This data, originally at 0.05 degree of spatial resolution, is aggregated and analysed at regional level to provide guidance on the expected temperature impact following specific LCC transitions.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna

The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment.

The landscape of Titan as witness to its climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Howard, Alan D.; Morgan, Alexander M.

2014-09-01

We investigated the range of Titan climate evolution hypotheses regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We analyzed all available image data (principally synthetic aperture radar (SAR)) of Titan's landscape through the T-86 encounter, starting with focused examinations of terrains that carry the markers of climate evolution. Traditional geologic and geomorphic landscape analysis was used to perform morphometric characterization, establish time-stratigraphic relationships, and interpret local and regional geologic process-oriented evolutionary histories. We then assayed the distribution of terrains we identified with respect to both their latitudinal and altimetric occurrence. Our analysis of the terrain types and distributions was used to evaluate and rank the various climate evolution scenarios. We favor progressive hypotheses, which include a relatively brief period in which precipitation was able to affect geomorphic change in low latitudes at scales perceivable in SAR data, with subsequent gradual decline of precipitation intensity coupled with an increasing poleward restriction.

A test of multiple hypotheses for the species richness gradient of South American owls.

PubMed

Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Rangel, Thiago F L V B; Hawkins, Bradford A

2004-08-01

Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain broad scale spatial patterns in species richness. In this paper, we evaluate five explanations for geographic gradients in species richness, using South American owls as a model. We compared the explanatory power of contemporary climate, landcover diversity, spatial climatic heterogeneity, evolutionary history, and area. An important aspect of our analyses is that very different hypotheses, such as history and area, can be quantified at the same observation scale and, consequently can be incorporated into a single analytical framework. Both area effects and owl phylogenetic history were poorly associated with richness, whereas contemporary climate, climatic heterogeneity at the mesoscale and landcover diversity explained ca. 53% of the variation in species richness. We conclude that both climate and environmental heterogeneity should be retained as plausible explanations for the diversity gradient. Turnover rates and scaling effects, on the other hand, although perhaps useful for detecting faunal changes and beta diversity at local and regional scales, are not strong explanations for the owl diversity gradient.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Hot temperatures during the dry season reduce survival of a resident tropical bird.

PubMed

Woodworth, Bradley K; Norris, D Ryan; Graham, Brendan A; Kahn, Zachary A; Mennill, Daniel J

2018-05-16

Understanding how climate change will shape species distributions in the future requires a functional understanding of the demographic responses of animals to their environment. For birds, most of our knowledge of how climate influences population vital rates stems from research in temperate environments, even though most of Earth's avian diversity is concentrated in the tropics. We evaluated effects of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and local temperature and rainfall at multiple temporal scales on sex-specific survival of a resident tropical bird, the rufous-and-white wren Thryophilus rufalbus , studied over 15 years in the dry forests of northwestern Costa Rica. We found that annual apparent survival of males was 8% higher than females, more variable over time, and responded more strongly to environmental variation than female survival, which did not vary strongly with SOI or local weather. For males, mean and maximum local temperatures were better predictors of survival than either rainfall or SOI, with high temperatures during the dry season and early wet season negatively influencing survival. These results suggest that, even for species adapted to hot environments, further temperature increases may threaten the persistence of local populations in the absence of distributional shifts. © 2018 The Author(s).

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate modeling with decision makers in mind

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew; Calvin, Katherine; Lamarque, Jean -Francois

The need for regional- and local-scale climate information is increasing rapidly as decision makers seek to anticipate and manage a variety of context-specific climate risks over the next several decades. Furthermore, global climate models are not developed with these user needs in mind, and they typically operate at resolutions that are too coarse to provide information that could be used to support regional and local decisions.

Climate modeling with decision makers in mind

DOE PAGES

Jones, Andrew; Calvin, Katherine; Lamarque, Jean -Francois

2016-04-27

The need for regional- and local-scale climate information is increasing rapidly as decision makers seek to anticipate and manage a variety of context-specific climate risks over the next several decades. Furthermore, global climate models are not developed with these user needs in mind, and they typically operate at resolutions that are too coarse to provide information that could be used to support regional and local decisions.

Adaptation to Climatic Hazards in the Savannah Ecosystem: Improving Adaptation Policy and Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiran, Gerald A. B.; Stringer, Lindsay C.

2017-10-01

People in Ghana's savannah ecosystem have historically experienced a range of climatic hazards that have affected their livelihoods. In view of current climate variability and change, and projected increases in extreme events, adaptation to climate risks is vital. Policies have been put in place to enhance adaptation across sub-Saharan Africa in accordance with international agreements. At the same time, local people, through experience, have learned to adapt. This paper examines current policy actions and their implementation alongside an assessment of barriers to local adaptation. In doing so it links adaptation policy and practice. Policy documents were analysed that covered key livelihood sectors, which were identified as climate sensitive. These included agriculture, water, housing and health policies, as well as the National Climate Change Policy. In-depth interviews and focus group discussions were also held with key stakeholders in the Upper East Region of Ghana. Analyses were carried using thematic content analysis. Although policies and actions complement each other, their integration is weak. Financial, institutional, social, and technological barriers hinder successful local implementation of some policy actions, while lack of local involvement in policy formulation also hinders adaptation practice. Integration of local perspectives into policy needs to be strengthened in order to enhance adaptation. Coupled with this is a need to consider adaptation to climate change in development policies and to pursue efforts to reduce or remove the key barriers to implementation at the local level.

Promoting climate literacy through social engagement: the Green Ninja Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero, E. C.; Todd, A.

2012-12-01

One of the challenges of communicating climate change to younger audiences is the disconnect between global issues and local impacts. The Green Ninja is a climate-action superhero that aims to energize young people about climate science through media and social engagement tools. In this presentation, we'll highlight two of the tools designed to help K-12 students implement appropriate local mitigation strategies. A mobile phone application builds and supports a social community around taking action at local businesses regarding themes such as food, packaging and energy efficiency. An energy efficiency contest in local schools utilizes smart meter technology to provide feedback on household energy use and conservation. These tools are supported by films and lesson plans that link formal and informal education channels. The effectiveness of these methodologies as tools to engage young people in climate science and action will be discussed.

Forest plant diversity at local and landscape scales in the Cascade Mountains of southwestern Washington

Treesearch

D.G. Brockway

1998-01-01

Old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest are known to support high levels of diversity across the varied landscapes they occupy. On 1200 plots distributed over the Cascade Mountains in southwestern Washington, climatic, physiographic, edaphic and floristic data were collected to evaluate the ecological characteristics of these coniferous forests and develop a...

A method of evaluating forest site quality from soil, forest cover, and indicator plants

Treesearch

Marinus Westveld

1952-01-01

Foresters have overlooked too long the importance of soil as a factor in successful timber production. Greatest production in amount and quality of wood at the smallest cost can be attained by growing the tree species that are best suited to the climate and the soil of the locality in question.

Evaluation of evapotranspiration from the breathing early system simulator (BESS) land surface model over the southern great plains of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scaling evapotranspiration (ET) from local measures to regional and global values is a critical task as improved understanding of ET processes can benefit weather and climate analysis and prediction, water management, and agriculture. This study examined the ET values produced by the Breathing Earth...

Evaluation of the mechanical and thermal properties of coffee tree wood flour - polypropylene composites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Columbian coffee trees are subject to frequent replacement plantings due to disease and local climate changes which makes them an ideal source of wood fibers for wood plastic composites (WPC). Composites of polypropylene (PP) consisting of 25% and 40% by weight of coffee wood flour (CF) and 0% or 5%...

Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and tree species richness in the eastern U.S.A.

Treesearch

Weihong Fan; Richard H. Waring

2009-01-01

Although many studies confirm that competition and disturbance play important roles in determining tree diversity locally, climatic constraints become increasingly important at broader geographic scales. We evaluate the extent that annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) might account for observed variation in tree diversity across the entire eastern U.S. and within 24...

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite themore » uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.« less

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Re-evaluating occupational heat stress in a changing climate.

PubMed

Spector, June T; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-10-01

The potential consequences of occupational heat stress in a changing climate on workers, workplaces, and global economies are substantial. Occupational heat stress risk is projected to become particularly high in middle- and low-income tropical and subtropical regions, where optimal controls may not be readily available. This commentary presents occupational heat stress in the context of climate change, reviews its impacts, and reflects on implications for heat stress assessment and control. Future efforts should address limitations of existing heat stress assessment methods and generate economical, practical, and universal approaches that can incorporate data of varying levels of detail, depending on resources. Validation of these methods should be performed in a wider variety of environments, and data should be collected and analyzed centrally for both local and large-scale hazard assessments and to guide heat stress adaptation planning. Heat stress standards should take into account variability in worker acclimatization, other vulnerabilities, and workplace resources. The effectiveness of controls that are feasible and acceptable should be evaluated. Exposure scientists are needed, in collaboration with experts in other areas, to effectively prevent and control occupational heat stress in a changing climate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Increasing bioenergy production on arable land: Does the regional and local climate respond? Germany as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Gutjahr, Oliver; Busch, Gerald; Thiele, Jan C.

2014-03-01

The extent and magnitude of land cover change effect on local and regional future climate during the vegetation period due to different forms of bioenergy plants are quantified for extreme temperatures and energy fluxes. Furthermore, we vary the spatial extent of plant allocation on arable land and simulate alternative availability of transpiration water to mimic both rainfed agriculture and irrigation. We perform climate simulations down to 1 km scale for 1970-1975 C20 and 2070-2075 A1B over Germany with Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode. Here an impact analysis indicates a strong local influence due to land cover changes. The regional effect is decreased by two thirds of the magnitude of the local-scale impact. The changes are largest locally for irrigated poplar with decreasing maximum temperatures by 1°C in summer months and increasing specific humidity by 0.15 g kg-1. The increased evapotranspiration may result in more precipitation. The increase of surface radiative fluxes Rnet due to changes in latent and sensible heat is estimated by 5 W m-2locally. Moreover, increases in the surface latent heat flux cause strong local evaporative cooling in the summer months, whereas the associated regional cooling effect is pronounced by increases in cloud cover. The changes on a regional scale are marginal and not significant. Increasing bioenergy production on arable land may result in local temperature changes but not in substantial regional climate change in Germany. We show the effect of agricultural practices during climate transitions in spring and fall.

Strategies implemented by 20 local tobacco control agencies to promote smoke-free recreation areas, California, 2004-2007.

PubMed

Satterlund, Travis D; Cassady, Diana; Treiber, Jeanette; Lemp, Cathy

2011-09-01

Since 2000, local jurisdictions in California have enacted hundreds of policies and ordinances in an effort to protect their citizens from the harmful effects of secondhand smoke. We evaluated strategies used by state-funded local tobacco control programs to enact local smoke-free policies involving outdoor recreational spaces. The Tobacco Control Evaluation Center analyzed 23 final evaluation reports that discussed adopting local smoke-free policies in outdoor recreational facilities in California. These reports were submitted for the 2004 through 2007 funding period by local tobacco control organizations to the California Department of Public Health, Tobacco Control Program. We used a comparative technique whereby we coded passages and compared them by locale and case, focusing on strategies that led to the enactment of smoke-free policies. Our analysis found the following 6 strategies to be the most effective: 1) having a "champion" who helps to carry an objective forward, 2) tapping into a pool of potential youth volunteers, 3) collecting and using local data as a persuasive tool, 4) educating the community in smoke-free policy efforts, 5) working strategically in the local political climate, and 6) framing the policy appropriately. These strategies proved effective regardless of whether policies were voluntary, administrative, or legislative. Successful policy enactment required a strong foundation of agency funding and an experienced and committed staff. These results should be relevant to other tobacco control organizations that are attempting to secure local smoke-free policy.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

2015-12-01

Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous findings that seed production at this site is higher in sunnier (and drier) years, this suggests strong climate-related shifts in allocation. This study highlights the importance of considering forest species composition and potential allocational shifts when predicting carbon fluxes in response to local climate variation.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

An Integrated Framework for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Coffee Growing Families in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions. PMID:24586328

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Range-wide reproductive consequences of ocean climate variability for the seabird Cassin's Auklet.

PubMed

Wolf, Shaye G; Sydeman, William J; Hipfner, J Mark; Abraham, Christine L; Tershy, Bernie R; Croll, Donald A

2009-03-01

We examine how ocean climate variability influences the reproductive phenology and demography of the seabird Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) across approximately 2500 km of its breeding range in the oceanographically dynamic California Current System along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we determine the extent to which ocean climate conditions and Cassin's Auklet timing of breeding and breeding success covary across populations in British Columbia, central California, and northern Mexico over six years (2000-2005) and test whether auklet timing of breeding and breeding success are similarly related to local and large-scale ocean climate indices across populations. Local ocean foraging environments ranged from seasonally variable, high-productivity environments in the north to aseasonal, low-productivity environments to the south, but covaried similarly due to the synchronizing effects of large-scale climate processes. Auklet timing of breeding in the southern population did not covary with populations to the north and was not significantly related to local oceanographic conditions, in contrast to northern populations, where timing of breeding appears to be influenced by oceanographic cues that signal peaks in prey availability. Annual breeding success covaried similarly across populations and was consistently related to local ocean climate conditions across this system. Overall, local ocean climate indices, particularly sea surface height, better explained timing of breeding and breeding success than a large-scale climate index by better representing heterogeneity in physical processes important to auklets and their prey. The significant, consistent relationships we detected between Cassin's Auklet breeding success and ocean climate conditions across widely spaced populations indicate that Cassin's Auklets are susceptible to climate change across the California Current System, especially by the strengthening of climate processes that synchronize oceanographic conditions. Auklet populations in the northern and central regions of this ecosystem may be more sensitive to changes in the timing and variability of ocean climate conditions since they appear to time breeding to take advantage of seasonal productivity peaks.

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega City of São Paulo - SP, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves Santos, Rafael; Saraiva Lopes, António Manuel; Prata-Shimomura, Alessandra

2017-04-01

Local Climate Zones Classification to Urban Planning in the Mega city of São Paulo - SP, Brazil Tropical megacities have presented a strong trend in growing urban. Urban management in megacities has as one of the biggest challenges is the lack of integration of urban climate and urban planning to promote ecologically smart cities. Local Climatic Zones (LCZs) are considered as important and recognized tool for urban climate management. Classes are local in scale, climatic in nature, and zonal in representation. They can be understood as regions of uniform surface cover, structure, material and human activity that have to a unique climate response. As an initial tool to promote urban climate planning, LCZs represent a simple composition of different land coverages (buildings, vegetation, soils, rock, roads and water). LCZs are divided in 17 classes, they are based on surface cover (built fraction, soil moisture, albedo), surface structure (sky view factor, roughness height) and cultural activity (anthropogenic heat flux). The aim of this study is the application of the LCZs classification system in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. Located at a latitude of 23° 21' and longitude 46° 44' near to the Tropic of Capricorn, presenting humid subtropical climate (Cfa) with diversified topographies. The megacity of São Paulo currently concentrates 11.890.000 inhabitants is characterized by large urban conglomerates with impermeable surfaces and high verticalization, having as result high urban heat island intensity. The result indicates predominance in urban zones of Compact low-rise, Compact Mid-rise, Compact High-rise and Open Low-rise. Non-urban regions are mainly covered by dense vegetation and water. The LCZs classification system promotes significant advantages for climate sensitive urban planning in the megacity of São Paulo. They offers new perspectives to the management of temperature and urban ventilation and allows the formulation of urban planning guidelines and climatic. Key words: Local Climatic Zones; Urban Panning; Megacities; São Paulo.

Place in Pacific Islands Climate Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, C.; Koh, M. W.

2015-12-01

Understanding place, including both the environment and its people, is essential to understanding our climate, climate change, and its impacts. For us to develop a sense of our place, we need to engage in multiple ways of learning: observation, experimentation, and opportunities to apply new knowledge (Orr, 1992). This approach allows us to access different sources of knowledge and then create local solutions for local issues. It is especially powerful when we rely on experts and elders in our own community along with information from the global community.The Pacific islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) is a collaboration of partners—school systems, nongovernmental organizations, and government agencies—working to support learning and teaching about climate in the Pacific. Since 2009, PCEP partners have been working together to develop and implement classroom resources, curriculum standards, and teacher professional learning opportunities in which learners approach climate change and its impacts first through the lens of their own place. Such an approach to putting place central to teaching and learning about climate requires partnership and opportunities for learners to explore solutions for and with their communities. In this presentation, we will share the work unfolding in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) as one example of PCEP's approach to place-based climate education. Three weeklong K-12 teacher professional learning workshops took place during June-July 2015 in Majuro, RMI on learning gardens, climate science, and project-based learning. Each workshop was co-taught with local partners and supports educators in teaching climate-related curriculum standards through tasks that can foster sense of place through observation, experimentation, and application of new knowledge. Additionally, we will also share PCEP's next steps in place-based climate education, specifically around emerging conversations about the importance of highlighting stories of place to generate local solutions for local issues, as well as further global awareness about climate change impacts in the Pacific.

2700 years of Mediterranean environmental change in central Italy: a synthesis of sedimentary and cultural records to interpret past impacts of climate on society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, Scott A.; Tunno, Irene; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Noble, Paula; Archer, Claire; Zimmerman, Susan; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Cifani, Gabriele; Passigli, Susanna; Piovesan, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, non-pollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a high-resolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on society for an under-documented region of Europe.

Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

2014-05-01

Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.

Advances of NOAA Training Program in Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.

2012-12-01

Since 2002, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Services Division (CSD) has offered numerous training opportunities to NWS staff. After eight-years of development, the training program offers three instructor-led courses and roughly 25 online (distance learning) modules covering various climate topics, such as: climate data and observations, climate variability and change, and NWS national / local climate products (tools, skill, and interpretation). Leveraging climate information and expertise available at all NOAA line offices and partners allows for the delivery of the most advanced knowledge and is a very critical aspect of the training program. The emerging NOAA Climate Service (NCS) requires a well-trained, climate-literate workforce at the local level capable of delivering NOAA's climate products and services as well as providing climate-sensitive decision support. NWS Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers presently serve as local outlets for the NCS climate services. Trained NWS climate service personnel use proactive and reactive approaches and professional education methods in communicating climate variability and change information to local users. Both scientifically-sound messages and amiable communication techniques are important in developing an engaged dialog between the climate service providers and users. Several pilot projects have been conducted by the NWS CSD this past year that apply the program's training lessons and expertise to specialized external user group training. The technical user groups included natural resources managers, engineers, hydrologists, and planners for transportation infrastructure. Training of professional user groups required tailoring instructions to the potential applications for each group of users. Training technical users identified the following critical issues: (1) knowledge of target audience expectations, initial knowledge status, and potential use of climate information; (2) leveraging partnership with climate services providers; and, (3) applying 3H training approach, where the first H stands for Head (trusted science), the second H stands for Heart (make it easy), and the third H for Hand (support with applications).

An Assessment of FY2016 Locally Developed Questions from the DEOMI Organizational Climate Survey: Recommendations and Potential Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-11

1 An Assessment of FY2016 Locally Developed Questions from the DEOMI Organizational Climate Survey : Recommendations and Potential Implications...Equal Opportunity Management Institute (DEOMI) Organizational Climate Survey (DEOCS). The top 15 questions were ranked across a total of 180,797...Department of Equal Opportunity Management Institute Organizational Climate Survey (DEOCS) for fiscal year 2016 by commanders across the Department

Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, Mark A.; Warren, Robert J., II; Baldrian, Petr; Crowther, Thomas W.; Maynard, Daniel S.; Oldfield, Emily E.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; King, Joshua R.

2014-07-01

Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on mean responses can be irrelevant and misleading. We test whether climate controls on the decomposition rate of dead wood--a carbon stock estimated to represent 73 +/- 6 Pg carbon globally--are sensitive to the spatial scale from which they are inferred. We show that the common assumption that climate is a predominant control on decomposition is supported only when local-scale variation is aggregated into mean values. Disaggregated data instead reveal that local-scale factors explain 73% of the variation in wood decomposition, and climate only 28%. Further, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition estimated from local versus mean analyses is 1.3-times greater. Fundamental issues with mean correlations were highlighted decades ago, yet mean climate-decomposition relationships are used to generate simulations that inform management and adaptation under environmental change. Our results suggest that to predict accurately how decomposition will respond to climate change, models must account for local-scale factors that control regional dynamics.

Dynamic Rainfall Patterns and the Simulation of Changing Scenarios: A behavioral watershed response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, M.; Guzman, J.; Steiner, J. L.; Hou, C.; Moriasi, D.

2015-12-01

Rainfall is one of the fundamental drivers that control hydrologic responses including runoff production and transport phenomena that consequently drive changes in aquatic ecosystems. Quantifying the hydrologic responses to changing scenarios (e.g., climate, land use, and management) using environmental models requires a realistic representation of probable rainfall in its most sensible spatio-temporal dimensions matching that of the phenomenon under investigation. Downscaling projected rainfall from global circulation models (GCMs) is the most common practice in deriving rainfall datasets to be used as main inputs to hydrologic models which in turn are used to assess the impacts of climate changes on ecosystems. Downscaling assumes that local climate is a combination of large-scale climatic/atmospheric conditions and local conditions. However, the representation of the latter is generally beyond the capacity of current GCMs. The main objective of this study was to develop and implement a synthetic rainfall generator to downscale expected rainfall trends to 1 x 1 km rainfall daily patterns that mimic the dynamic propagation of probability distribution functions (pdf) derived from historic rainfall data (rain-gauge or radar estimated). Future projections were determined based on actual and expected changes in the pdf and stochastic processes to account for variability. Watershed responses in terms of streamflow and nutrients loads were evaluated using synthetically generated rainfall patterns and actual data. The framework developed in this study will allow practitioners to generate rainfall datasets that mimic the temporal and spatial patterns exclusive to their study area under full disclosure of the uncertainties involved. This is expected to provide significantly more accurate environmental models than is currently available and would provide practitioners with ways to evaluate the spectrum of systemic responses to changing scenarios.

Mountaintops phylogeography: A case study using small mammals from the Andes and the coast of central Chile

PubMed Central

González, Juan F.; Boric-Bargetto, Dusan; Torres-Pérez, Fernando

2017-01-01

We evaluated if two sigmodontine rodent taxa (Abrothrix olivacea and Phyllotis darwini) from the Andes and Coastal mountaintops of central Chile, experienced distributional shifts due to altitudinal movements of habitat and climate change during and after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We tested the hypothesis that during LGM populations of both species experienced altitudinal shifts from the Andes to the lowlands and the coastal Cordillera, and then range retractions during interglacial towards higher elevations in the Andes. These distributional shifts may have left remnants populations on the mountaintops. We evaluated the occurrence of intraspecific lineages for each species, to construct distribution models at LGM and at present, as extreme climatic conditions for each lineage. Differences in distribution between extreme climatic conditions were interpreted as post-glacial distributional shifts. Abrothrix olivacea displayed a lineage with shared sequences between both mountain systems, whereas a second lineage was restricted to the Andes. A similar scenario of panmictic unit in the past was recovered for A. olivacea in the Andes, along with an additional unit that included localities from the rest of its distribution. For P. darwini, both lineages recovered were distributed in coastal and Andean mountain ranges at present as well, and structuring analyses for this species recovered coastal and Andean localities as panmictic units in the past. Niche modeling depicted differential postglacial expansions in the recovered lineages. Results suggest that historical events such as LGM triggered the descending of populations to Andean refuge areas (one of the A. olivacea’s lineages), to the lowlands, and to the coastal Cordillera. Backward movements of populations after glacial retreats may have left isolates on mountaintops of the coastal Cordillera, suggesting that current species distribution would be the outcome of climate change and habitat reconfiguration after LGM. PMID:28672032

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

PubMed Central

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

2016-01-01

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

2016-04-21

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2014-12-01

Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-10-01

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

A Water Resources Management Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in North-Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucciarelli, L. F.; Losano, F. T.; Marizza, M.; Cello, P.; Forni, L.; Young, C. A.; Girardin, L. O.; Nadal, G.; Lallana, F.; Godoy, S.; Vallejos, R.

2014-12-01

Most recently developed climate scenarios indicate a potential future increase in water stress in the region of Comahue, located in the North-Patagonia, Argentina. This region covers about 140,000 km2 where the Limay River and the Neuquén River converge into the Negro River, constituting the largest integrated basins in Argentina providing various uses of water resources: a) hydropower generation, contributing 15% of the national electricity market; b) fruit-horticultural products for local markets and export; c) human and industrial water supply; d) mining and oil exploitation, including Vaca Muerta, second world largest reserves of shale gas and fourth world largest reserves of shale-oil. The span of multiple jurisdictions and the convergence of various uses of water resources are a challenge for integrated understanding of economically and politically driven resource use activities on the natural system. The impacts of climate change on the system could lead to water resource conflicts between the different political actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the results of a hydrological simulation of the Limay river and Neuquén river basins using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) considering the operation of artificial reservoirs located downstream at a monthly time step. This study aims to support policy makers via integrated tools for water-energy planning under climate uncertainties, and to facilitate the formulation of water policy-related actions for future water stress adaptation. The value of the integrated resource use model is that it can support local policy makers understand the implications of resource use trade-offs under a changing climate: 1) water availability to meet future growing demand for irrigated areas; 2) water supply for hydropower production; 3) increasing demand of water for mining and extraction of unconventional oil; 4) potential resource use conflicts and impacts on vulnerable populations.

Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the current situation. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, engineers, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities. Indeed, climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, drought and heat waves has already been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability have been achieved; a GIS based identification of Urban Residential hotspots to flooding is completed; and the vulnerability of informal settlements to flooding has been evaluated for one of the hotspots identified (Little Akaki case study area). Furthermore, a set of indicators relevant for Addis Ababa has been selected by local stakeholders to identify especially vulnerable, high risk areas and communities and an investigation of existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability is ongoing. Evidence from the CLUVA project is being used to develop the next Master Plan for the Addis Ababa metropolitan area.

COASTAL ZONES, A REPORT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT TEAM FOR THE GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Impacts of climate change on coastal areas can be expected to have a regional signature that depends on the local climate change and the local geomorphological, biogeochemical, ecological and social factors that affect the sensitivity to climate. Here we present an assessment of...

Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

Individual contributions of climate and vegetation change to soil moisture trends across multiple spatial scales.

PubMed

Feng, Huihui

2016-09-07

Climate and vegetation change are two dominating factors for soil moisture trend. However, their individual contributions remain unknown due to their complex interaction. Here, I separated their contributions through a trajectory-based method across the global, regional and local scales. Our results demonstrated that climate change accounted for 98.78% and 114.64% of the global drying and wetting trend. Vegetation change exhibited a relatively weak influence (contributing 1.22% and -14.64% of the global drying and wetting) because it occurred in a limited area on land. Regionally, the impact of vegetation change cannot be neglected, which contributed -40.21% of the soil moisture change in the wetting zone. Locally, the contributions strongly correlated to the local environmental characteristics. Vegetation negatively affected soil moisture trends in the dry and sparsely vegetated regions and positively in the wet and densely vegetated regions. I conclude that individual contributions of climate and vegetation change vary at the global, regional and local scales. Climate change dominates the soil moisture trends, while vegetation change acts as a regulator to drying or wetting the soil under the changing climate.

Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

2017-12-01

Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

2012-12-01

With so many informal outreach and education venues across the world, leveraging them for climate education allows vast amounts of information to be translated to the public in a familiar setting through trusted local sources. One of the challenges is the development of an effective process for training informal educators and providing them with adequate support materials. The 'NASA Climate Day Kit', and its related training strategy for Earth Ambassadors, is designed to address some of these issues. The purpose of the NASA Climate Day project is to collect existing NASA climate education materials, assemble a cadre of informal educators, and provide professional development on the subject of climate change. This training is accomplished through a series of exercises, games, science talks and place-based training. After their training and immersion in climate-related content, participants develop and implement a climate event at their local informal education venue. Throughout their training the Earth Ambassadors are exposed to a wide array of climate related exercises and background content. Some of these include one-on-one science content talks with NASA scientists who study climate on a daily basis. This allows the Ambassador to have direct access to new cutting edge data and information. To complement the science talks, participants explore activities and games that can engage all ages at their climate event. During their training, they also explore the 'Climate Day Kit'. This Kit is an assemblage of climate-related materials created by various NASA groups. Key components of this Kit include data visualizations, articles, electronic reference material, science talks, NASA Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) climate materials, and examples of Climate Day events that have been conducted in the past. As an on-going resource and to use for their own climate event, each group of Earth Ambassadors has access to a dynamic website that hosts all of the science presentations from the training, along with downloadable Climate Day Kit materials. Utilizing informal educators from museums, aquariums, libraries and other similar venues allow the hard-to-understand, sometimes-controversial, topic of climate change to be presented to the public in tailored events that suit an individual community's needs. Included in the process of scheduling and executing these climate events, the Ambassadors participate in virtual conferences to discuss progress, to ensure proper evaluation and to allow ample time for questions from the trainers and scientists. This ensures an accurate stream of information from the scientist to the public in a fashion that can be understood and digested by the layperson, helping them to make better-informed decisions about societal issues related to global climate change. Through a series of local Climate Day events, it is hoped that the public will have the opportunity to have first hand experience with the topic of climate change, leaving with a better understanding of its scientific basis. Outcome: This paper will summarize the various methods and strategies used in the Climate Day training events. A discussion of methods that work and those that do not for informal education will help provide a better understanding of the challenges faced in educating the public on such a controversial and hard-to-understand topic.

Local farmers' perceptions of climate change and local adaptive strategies: a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

2013-10-01

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.

Local Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

2013-10-01

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

PubMed

Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2018-04-01

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species' abundance and distribution. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

2013-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai';i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). These Pacific Islands spread across 4.9 million square miles and include diverse indigenous cultures and languages. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. The PCEP Strategic Plan incorporates a range of interconnected strategic goals grouped into four priority education areas: Climate Education Framework --Implement a next-generation Climate Education Framework that focuses on the content and skills necessary for understanding the science of global and Pacific island climates, as well as the adaptation to climate impacts in the USAPI region. Indigenous Knowledge and Practices --Gather appropriate local indigenous knowledge based on the cultural stories and traditional practices related to environmental stewardship, climate, and local climate adaptation strategies. Learning and Teaching--Enhance conditions for learning about climate change in K-14 classrooms with the CEF through college-based, credentialed climate education programs; professional learning opportunities for teachers; and increased teacher implementation of locally-relevant climate science and adaptation curricula. Community-School Partnership --Connect schools (K-14) and community climate adaptation partners through locally relevant projects to implement effective and sustainable climate education. Explore and build awareness of resources that the community, colleges, and K-12 schools have to offer each other, and initiate partnering activities to support project-based learning activities. Current PCEP activities include: revising state and national science education standards to better incorporate climate change; contextualizing curricula to wide variety of climate and education contexts; gathering local indigenous knowledge and practices related to climate education and adaptation; providing professional development appropriate to these very diverse locations; supporting local professional learning communities in each international location; and developing a regional climate education certificate program. A key PCEP challenge is to maintain a coherent regional identity while contextualizing education activities to very diverse locations. PCEP staff have a high priority to learn, share and communicate across these locations, and to broadly benefit from lessons learned in each of the locations. Another strong connector is the overlap in climate changes, impacts and adaptation strategies across this international region.

Integrating local urban climate modelling and mobile sensor data for personal exposure assessments in the context of urban heat island effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueberham, Maximilian; Hertel, Daniel; Schlink, Uwe

2017-04-01

Deeper knowledge about urban climate conditions is getting more important in the context of climate change, urban population growth, urban compaction and continued surface sealing. Especially the urban heat island effect (UHI) is one of the most significant human induced alterations of Earth's surface climate. According to this the appearance frequency of heat waves in cities will increase with deep impacts on personal thermal comfort, human health and local residential quality of citizens. UHI can be very heterogenic within a city and research needs to focus more on the neighborhood scale perspective to get further insights about the heat burden of individuals. However, up to now, few is known about local thermal environmental variances and personal exposure loads. To monitor these processes and the impact on individuals, improved monitoring approaches are crucial, complementing data recorded at conventional fixed stations. Therefore we emphasize the importance of micro-meteorological modelling and mobile measurements to shed new light on the nexus of urban human-climate interactions. Contributing to this research we jointly present the approaches of our two PhD-projects. Firstly we illustrate on the basis of an example site, how local thermal conditions in an urban district can be simulated and predicted by a micro-meteorological model. Secondly we highlight the potentials of personal exposure measurements based on an evaluation of mobile micro-sensing devices (MSDs) and analyze and explain differences between model predictions and mobile records. For the examination of local thermal conditions we calculated ENVI-met simulations within the "Bayerischer Bahnhof" quarter in Leipzig (Saxony, Germany; 51°20', 12°22'). To accomplish the maximum temperature contrasts within the diverse built-up structures we chose a hot summer day (25 Aug 2016) under autochthonous weather conditions. From these simulations we analyzed a UHI effect between the model core (urban area) and the surrounding nesting area (rural area). Preparing for the outdoor application of mobile MSDs we tested their accuracy and performance between several MSDs and reliable sophisticated devices under laboratory conditions. We found that variations mainly depend on the device design and technology (e.g. active/passive ventilation). The standard deviation of the temperature records was quite stable over the whole range of values and the MSDs proved to be applicable for the purpose of our study. In conclusion the benefit of integrating mobile data and micrometeorological predictions is manifold. Mobile data can be used for the investigation of personal exposure in the context of heat stress and for the verification and training of micrometeorological models. Otherwise, model predictions can identify local areas of special climate interest where additional mobile measurements would be beneficial to provide new information for mitigation and adaptation actions.

Chemical weathering as a mechanism for the climatic control of bedrock river incision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Brendan P.; Johnson, Joel P. L.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Sklar, Leonard S.

2016-04-01

Feedbacks between climate, erosion and tectonics influence the rates of chemical weathering reactions, which can consume atmospheric CO2 and modulate global climate. However, quantitative predictions for the coupling of these feedbacks are limited because the specific mechanisms by which climate controls erosion are poorly understood. Here we show that climate-dependent chemical weathering controls the erodibility of bedrock-floored rivers across a rainfall gradient on the Big Island of Hawai‘i. Field data demonstrate that the physical strength of bedrock in streambeds varies with the degree of chemical weathering, which increases systematically with local rainfall rate. We find that incorporating the quantified relationships between local rainfall and erodibility into a commonly used river incision model is necessary to predict the rates and patterns of downcutting of these rivers. In contrast to using only precipitation-dependent river discharge to explain the climatic control of bedrock river incision, the mechanism of chemical weathering can explain strong coupling between local climate and river incision.

Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

PubMed

Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission—even at a very local scale—is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors. As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages. This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics. PMID:22238582

A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their community, the types of actions they have in place to address climate change, and the resources at their disposal for implementation. Several studies have been conducted by academics, non-governmental organizations, and public agencies to assess the status of local climate change adaptation. This project collates the findings from dozens of such studies to conduct a meta-analysis of local climate change adaptation actions. The studies will be characterized along several dimensions, including (a) methods used, (b) timing and geographic scope, (c) topics covered, (d) types of adaptation actions identified, (e) implementation status, and (f) public engagement and environmental justice dimensions considered. The poster presents the project's rationale and approach and some illustrative findings from early analyses. [Note: The document being reviewed is an abstract in which a poster is being proposed. The poster will enter clearance if the abstract is accepted] The purpose of this poster is to present the research framework and approaches I am developing for my ORISE postdoctoral project, and to get feedback on early analyses.

Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

PubMed

Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Toulios, Leonidas; Calanca, Pierluigi; Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, Jørgen E

2008-12-01

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation.

Investigating the Human Dimension of Unprecedented Global Climate Change in northeastern Siberia, Russia: Understandings, Perceptions and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crate, S.

2009-12-01

An urgent challenge of the 21st century is to investigate understandings, perceptions and responses of populations confronting the local effects of global climate change. This paper describes the most recent results of one such project working with rural native Viliui Sakha communities, Turkic-speaking horse & cattle breeders in northeastern Siberia, Russia. The research questions are: 1) What local effects of global climate change are Viliui Sakha communities observing, how are Viliui Sakha perceiving these changes and how are the changes affecting both their subsistence survival and their cultural orientations? 2) What local knowledge exists about past climate perturbations and how does that knowledge influence contemporary adaptation to global climate change? 3) How can anecdotal (local) knowledge and regional scientific knowledge about the local effects of global climate change be integrated to enhance both local adaptive responses and policy efforts? The four-village, three-year study is a collaborative effort involving the active participation of the targeted communities, field assistants, native specialists, an in-country research team and an international collaborator. The project is founded on the PI’s 20 years of ongoing research and work with rural Viliui Sakha communities and on her fluency in both the Sakha and Russian languages. A central focus of this project is the integration of local and scientific knowledges. We are documenting local knowledge on the community, elder and archival levels. We are collaborating with scientists in Yakutsk for regional scientific data. Our project team has just returned from the second summer of field work and this presentation will cover the project results to date. Hayfields are inundated with water.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

PubMed

Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

2015-08-01

• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

PubMed

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

PubMed Central

Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C.

2016-01-01

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564

Cold weather damages promising species in the Wind River Arboretum.

Treesearch

R.W. Steele

1954-01-01

Before an introduced tree species is. recommended for wide-scale forest planting, its adaption to the local climate and soil should be carefully checked over a long period of years. This need has been clearly demonstrated at the Wind River Arboretum where many introduced species are being evaluated for possible use in plantations. The purpose of this note is to call...

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

2018-02-01

This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

The Nevada NSF EPSCoR infrastructure for climate change science, education, and outreach project: highlights and progress on investigations of ecological change and water resources along elevational gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, L.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Arnone, J.; Devitt, D.; Riddle, B.; Young, M.

2010-12-01

In 2008, the Nevada System of Higher Education received a 5-year, $15 million grant from the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR). The mission of the project is to create a statewide interdisciplinary program to stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach about the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem services (especially water resources), and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders. The overarching question that this effort will address is: how will climate change affect water resources, disturbance regimes and linked ecosystem and human services? While the overall project includes cyberinfrastructure, policy, education and climate modeling, this presentation will focus on the ecological change and water resources components. The goals of these two components are: 1) improving understanding of processes controlling local- and basin-wide impacts of climate on species dynamics, disturbance regimes, and water recharge rates; 2) evaluating interactions between landscape-level processes and biophysical indicators; 3) evaluating interactions between surface and groundwater systems; 4) predicting changes in wildfire regime, primary productivity, and biodiversity (including invasive species); and 5) assessing how interactions between water and ecology will differ under climate change and/or climate variability scenarios. To achieve these goals, the two components will quantify present-day climate variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales, including at multiple elevations within Nevada’s Basin and Range ecosystem continuum. This presentation will discuss key elements for achieving these goals, including the establishment of instrumented transects spanning a range of elevations and vegetation zones in eastern and southern Nevada.

Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts

Treesearch

Christopher Daly; David R. Conklin; Michael H. Unsworth

2009-01-01

Cold air drainage and pooling occur in many mountain valleys, especially at night and during winter. Local climate regimes associated with frequent cold air pooling have substantial impacts on species phenology, distribution, and diversity. However, little is known about how the degree and frequency of cold air drainage and pooling will respond to a changing climate....

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe

2014-05-01

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating precipitation in a regional climate model using ground-based radar measurements in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorodetskaya, Irina; Maahn, Maximilan; Gallée, Hubert; Souverijns, Niels; Gossart, Alexandra; Kneifel, Stefan; Crewell, Susanne; Van Lipzig, Nicole

2017-04-01

Occasional very intense snowfall events over Dronning Maud Land (DML) region in East Antarctica, contributed significantly to the entire Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) during the last years. The meteorological-cloud-precipitation observatory running at the Princess Elisabeth station (PE) in the DML escarpment zone since 2009 (HYDRANT/AEROCLOUD projects), provides unique opportunity to estimate contribution of precipitation to the local snow accumulation and new data for evaluating precipitation in climate models. Our previous work using PE measurements showed that occasional intense precipitation events determine the total local yearly SMB and account for its large interannual variability. Here we use radar measurements to evaluate precipitation in a regional climate model with a special focus on intense precipitation events together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics responsible for these events. The coupled snow-atmosphere regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) is used to simulate climate and SMB in DML at 5-km horizontal resolution during 2012 using initial and boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim re-analysis atmospheric and oceanic fields. Two evaluation approaches are used: observations-to-model and model-to-observations. In the first approach, snowfall rate (S) is derived from the MRR (vertically profiling 24-GHz precipitation radar) effective reflectivity factor (Ze) at 400 m agl using various Ze-S relationships for dry snow. The uncertainty in Ze-S relationships is constrained using snow particle size distribution from Snow Video Imager - Precipitation Imaging Package (SVI/PIP) and information about particle shapes. For the second approach we apply the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer model (PAMTRA), which allows direct comparison of the radar-measured and climate model-based vertical profiles of the radar Ze and Doppler velocity. In MAR, the mass and terminal velocity of snow particles are defined as for the graupel-like snowflakes of hexagonal type, determining single scattering properties for snow hydrometeors used as input (along with cloud particle properties and atmospheric parameters) into PAMTRA. MAR simulates well the timing of major synoptic-scale precipitation events, while overestimating snowfall rate during the intense precipitation events beyond the Ze-S relationship uncertainty. This bias is also evident in significantly longer tail of the frequency distribution towards high values for MAR synthetic Ze near the surface compared to PE radar. This bias can be related to the differences both in the amount and type of snowflakes reaching the surface. The most intense precipitation event contributing almost 50% to the local yearly SMB occurred on 6 November 2012 and was associated with an atmospheric river. MAR model produced more than twice as much precipitation compared to PE radar measurements on this event. Reasons for this high bias are investigated by looking at the moisture transports, cloud properties (ice/liquid occurrence and cloud vertical structure), and precipitation formation efficiency especially related to the mixed-phase clouds (the Bergeron-Findeisen process).

Links between the built environment, climate and population health: interdisciplinary environmental change research in New York City.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Sclar, Elliott D; Kinney, Patrick L; Knowlton, Kim; Crauderueff, Robert; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W

2007-10-01

Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the wellbeing of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these challenges, and to train scholars capable of collaborative approaches across the social and biophysical sciences.

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

PubMed

Rodda, Gordon H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Reed, Robert N

2011-02-09

Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Challenges in Identifying Sites Climatically Matched to the Native Ranges of Animal Invaders

PubMed Central

Rodda, Gordon H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Reed, Robert N.

2011-01-01

Background Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk. PMID:21347411

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, G.H.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Reed, R.N.

2011-01-01

Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Impact of highway construction on land surface energy balance and local climate derived from LANDSAT satellite data.

PubMed

Nedbal, Václav; Brom, Jakub

2018-08-15

Extensive construction of highways has a major impact on the landscape and its structure. They can also influence local climate and heat fluxes in the surrounding area. After the removal of vegetation due to highway construction, the amount of solar radiation energy used for plant evapotranspiration (latent heat flux) decreases, bringing about an increase in landscape surface temperature, changing the local climate and increasing surface run-off. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the D8 highway construction (Central Bohemia, Czech Republic) on the distribution of solar radiation energy into the various heat fluxes (latent, sensible and ground heat flux) and related surface functional parameters (surface temperature and surface wetness). The aim was to describe the severity of the impact and the distance from the actual highway in which it can be observed. LANDSAT multispectral satellite images and field meteorological measurements were used to calculate surface functional parameters and heat balance before and during the highway construction. Construction of a four-lane highway can influence the heat balance of the landscape surface as far as 90m in the perpendicular direction from the highway axis, i.e. up to 75m perpendicular from its edge. During a summer day, the decrease in evapotranspired water can reach up to 43.7m 3 per highway kilometre. This means a reduced cooling effect, expressed as the decrease in latent heat flux, by an average of 29.7MWh per day per highway kilometre and its surroundings. The loss of the cooling ability of the land surface by evaporation can lead to a rise in surface temperature by as much as 7°C. Thus, the results indicate the impact of extensive line constructions on the local climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch: Engaging Communities in Climate Science and Bird Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, N. L.; Baker, R.; Bergstrom, E.; Cox, D.; Cox, G.; Dale, K.; Jensen, C.; Langham, G.; LeBaron, G.; Loftus, W.; Rowden, J.; Slavin, Z.; Smithson-Stanley, L.; Wilsey, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change poses serious challenges for conservation scientists and policymakers. Yet with these challenges come equally great opportunities to engage communities of concerned citizens in climate science and conservation. National Audubon Society's 2014 Birds and Climate Change report found that 314 North American bird species could lose over half their breeding or wintering ranges by 2080 due to climate change. Consequently, in 2016 Audubon developed two new crowd-sourced science programs that mobilized existing birding communities (i.e., Audubon Society chapters) in partnership with scientists to evaluate climate change effects on birds, and take action to protect vulnerable populations. Climate Watch expands upon traditional monitoring programs by involving citizen scientists in hypothesis-driven science, testing predictions of climate-driven range expansion in bluebirds developed by National Audubon Society scientists. Spoonbill Watch is a partnership between an Audubon research scientist and the Pelican Island Audubon Society community, in which citizen scientists monitor a Roseate Spoonbill colony recently established in response to changing habitat and climatic conditions. Additionally, Spoonbill Watch participants and leaders have moved beyond monitoring to take action to protect the colony, by working with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission towards getting the site declared as a Critical Wildlife Area and by conducting local outreach and education efforts. We will present overviews, lessons learned, and conservation goals and opportunities achieved during the pilot year of Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch. Scientific - community partnerships such as these are essential to confront the threats posed by climate change.

Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, J. A.; Marshall, P. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Harman, S.

2010-06-01

Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as "field" or "global" significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Reality of using a model from local governments' perspective-How science community can help?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzazad, S.

2016-12-01

Local governments across the US use historic data to approve capital improvement projects and update comprehensive/zoning plans. Due to the effects of climate change, historic data sets are no longer suitable, which requires communities to use climate models to project the future. However, the use of climate models also presents challenges for local governments such as: Variations between models: Because model-development methodologies vary, different climate models provide different end results. A local governments' decision concerning which climate model to use is tricky because the model drives policy direction and infrastructure investments that can be both expensive and controversial. Communicating the gaps of a model: There are always uncertainties associated with modeling. These gaps may range from the scale of a model to the type of data used in modeling. Effectively communicating this to a community is crucial to gain political support. Managing politics associated with using a model: In many cases, models project changes to the built environment that will detrimentally affect private property owners. This can result in strong push back from the community and could threaten the local tax base. Scientists have important roles; from development to delivery of models to assisting local governments navigate through these challenges. Bringing in entities with experience of working with local governments can contribute to a successful outcome. In this proposed session, ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability will use the USGS CoSMoS as a case study for lessons learned in establishing a framework for effective collaboration between local governments and the science community.

Conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures acting on an extended phenotype in a subarctic, but not temperate, environment.

PubMed

Rohwer, V G; Bonier, F; Martin, P R

2015-10-22

Climatic selective pressures are thought to dominate biotic selective pressures at higher latitudes. However, few studies have experimentally tested how these selective pressures differentially act on traits across latitudes because traits can rarely be manipulated independently of the organism in nature. We overcame this challenge by using an extended phenotype-active bird nests-and conducted reciprocal transplant experiments between a subarctic and temperate site, separated by 14° of latitude. At the subarctic site, biotic selective pressures (nest predation) favoured smaller, non-local temperate nests, whereas climatic selective pressures (temperature) favoured larger local nests, particularly at colder temperatures. By contrast, at the temperate site, climatic and biotic selective pressures acted similarly on temperate and subarctic nests. Our results illustrate a functional trade-off in the subarctic between nest morphologies favoured by biotic versus climatic selective pressures, with climate favouring local nest morphologies. At our temperate site, however, allocative trade-offs in the time and effort devoted to nest construction favour smaller, local nests. Our findings illustrate a conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures at the northern extremes of a species geographical range, and suggest that trade-offs between trait function and trait elaboration act differentially across latitude to create broad geographic variation in traits. © 2015 The Author(s).

Conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures acting on an extended phenotype in a subarctic, but not temperate, environment

PubMed Central

Rohwer, V. G.; Bonier, F.; Martin, P. R.

2015-01-01

Climatic selective pressures are thought to dominate biotic selective pressures at higher latitudes. However, few studies have experimentally tested how these selective pressures differentially act on traits across latitudes because traits can rarely be manipulated independently of the organism in nature. We overcame this challenge by using an extended phenotype—active bird nests—and conducted reciprocal transplant experiments between a subarctic and temperate site, separated by 14° of latitude. At the subarctic site, biotic selective pressures (nest predation) favoured smaller, non-local temperate nests, whereas climatic selective pressures (temperature) favoured larger local nests, particularly at colder temperatures. By contrast, at the temperate site, climatic and biotic selective pressures acted similarly on temperate and subarctic nests. Our results illustrate a functional trade-off in the subarctic between nest morphologies favoured by biotic versus climatic selective pressures, with climate favouring local nest morphologies. At our temperate site, however, allocative trade-offs in the time and effort devoted to nest construction favour smaller, local nests. Our findings illustrate a conflict between biotic and climatic selective pressures at the northern extremes of a species geographical range, and suggest that trade-offs between trait function and trait elaboration act differentially across latitude to create broad geographic variation in traits. PMID:26490789

Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.

PubMed

de Boer, Joop; de Witt, Annick; Aiking, Harry

2016-03-01

This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India

PubMed Central

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future. PMID:28753605

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India.

PubMed

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future.

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

The CARIPANDA project: Climate change and water resources in the Adamello Natural Park of Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.

2009-04-01

The three years (2007-2009) CARIPANDA project funded by the Cariplo Foundation of Italy is aimed to evaluate scenarios for water resources in the Adamello natural Park of Italy in a window of 50 years or so (until 2050). The project is led by Ente Parco Adamello and involves Politecnico di Milano, Università Statale di Milano, Università di Brescia, and ARPA Lombardia as scientific partners, while ENEL hydropower Company of Italy joins the project as stake holder. The Adamello Natural Park is a noteworthy resource in the Italian Alps. The Adamello Group is made of several glacierized areas (c. 24 km2), of both debris covered and free ice types, including the widest Italian Glacier, named Adamello, spreading on an area of about c. 18 km2. Also the Adamello Natural Reserve, covering 217 km2 inside the Adamello Park and including the Adamello glaciers, hosts a number of high altitude safeguarded vegetal and animal species, the safety of which is a primary task of the Reserve. Project's activity involves analysis of local climate trend, field campaigns on glaciers, hydrological modelling and remote sensing of snow and ice covered areas, aimed to build a consistent model of the present hydrological conditions and of the areas. Then, properly tailored climate change projections for the area, obtained using local data driven downscaling of climate change projections from GCMs model, are used to infer the likely response to expected climate change conditions. With two years in the project now some preliminary findings can be highlighted and some preliminary trend analysis carried out. The proposed poster provides a resume of the main results of the project insofar, of interest as a benchmark for similar ongoing and foregoing projects about climate change impact on European mountainous natural areas.

Variability in response of lakes to climate change explained by surrounding watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Bouffard, Damien

2017-04-01

The consequences of climate change for inland waters have been shown to vary extensively not only globally, but also on a sub-regional scale [O'Reilly et al., 2015, GRL]. Local factors affecting heating include morphology [Toffolon et al., 2014, LO], irradiance absorption [Williamson et al., 2015, SR], local weather conditions and onset of stratification [Zhong et al., 2016, LO] as well as ice conditions [Austin and Colman, 2007, GRL]. However, inland waters are often a complex web of rivers, streams, lakes and reservoirs. Thereby, to correctly assess and predict future changes in lakes/reservoirs due to climate change, it is important to consider the changes occurring in the surrounding watersheds and how they affect downstream waters. Here we evaluate the impact of climate change on rivers originating in the Swiss Alps (Aare and Rhône) and downstream located perialpine lakes (Lake Biel and Lake Geneva). We use regional predictions for air temperature increase and the subsequently expected shift in river discharge regime under the A1B emission scenario [Bey et al., 2011, CH2011; Federal Office for the Environment FOEN, 2012, CCHydro]. Focus is on predicting the changes in water temperature, particle content, stratification and deep water renewal rate using the 1D SIMSTRAT [Goudsmit et al., 2002, JGR] and Air2Stream [Toffolon and Piccolroaz, 2015, ERL] models. We show that the effect of tributaries on the reaction for downstream lakes to climate change are inversely proportional to the hydraulic residence time of the systems. We furthermore include known changes in anthropogenic thermal emissions, which in Lake Biel correspond to 2 decades of climate induced warming. Our results are put into context with future water utility plans in Lake Biel.

Climate-Smart Seedlot Selection Tool: Reforestation and Restoration for the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson-Molnar, N.; Howe, G.; St Clair, B.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ward, B. C.

2017-12-01

Local populations of trees are generally adapted to their local climates. Historically, this has meant that local seed zones based on geography and elevation have been used to guide restoration and reforestation. In the face of climate change, seeds from local sources will likely be subjected to climates significantly different from those to which they are currently adapted. The Seedlot Selection Tool (SST) offers a new approach for matching seed sources with planting sites based on future climate scenarios. The SST is a mapping program designed for forest managers and researchers. Users can use the tool to to find seedlots for a given planting site, or to find potential planting sites for a given seedlot. Users select a location (seedlot or planting site), climate scenarios (a climate to which seeds are adapted, and a current or future climate scenario), climate variables, and transfer limits (the maximum climatic distance that is considered a suitable match). Transfer limits are provided by the user, or derived from the range of values within a geographically defined seed zone. The tool calculates scores across the landscape based on an area's similarity, in a multivariate climate space, to the input. Users can explore results on an interactive map, and export PDF and PowerPoint reports, including a map of the results along with the inputs used. Planned future improvements include support for non-forest use cases and ability to download results as GeoTIFF data. The Seedlot Selection Tool and its source code are available online at https://seedlotselectiontool.org. It is co-developed by the United States Forest Service, Oregon State University, and the Conservation Biology Institute.

Climate services for an urban area (Baia Mare City, Romania) with a focus on climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Dana; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Mihalache, Sorin

2013-04-01

The Baia Mare Urban System is located in the north-western part of Romania, with around 200,000 inhabitants and represents one of the most important former mining areas in the country, whose socioeconomic profile and environmental conditions have greatly changed over the last 20 years during the transition and post-transition period. Currently the mining is closed in the area, but the historical legacy of this activity has implications in terms of economic growth, social and cultural developments and environmental quality. Baia Mare city lies in an extended depression, particularly sheltered by the mountain and hilly regions located in the north and respectively, in the south-south-eastern part of it, which explains the high frequency of calm conditions and low airstream channeling occurrences. This urban system has a typically moderate temperate-continental climate, subject to frequent westerly airflows (moist), which moderate the thermal regime (without depicting severe extremes, both positive and negative) and enhance the precipitation one (entailing a greater frequency of wet extremes). During the reference period (1971-2000), the climate change signal in the area is rather weak and not statistically significant. However, since the mid 1980s, the warming signal became more evident from the observational data (Baia Mare station), showing a higher frequency of dry spells and positive extremes. The modelling experiments covering the 2021-2050 time horizon using regional (RM5.1/HadRM3Q0/RCA3) and global (ARPEGE/HadCM3Q0/BCM/ECHAM5) circulation models carried out within the ECLISE FP7 project suggest an ongoing temperature rise, associated to an intensification of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate how the local authorities consider and include climate change in their activity, as well as in the development plans (e.g. territorial, economic and social development plans). Individual interviews have been undertaken with key institutions focusing on environmental, health and urban development issues. The survey was conducted in order to identify the local authorities' perception and needs on climate change information and the importance of climate services for the city and institution's activity. Generally, the results suggest that the selected institutions are poorly aware of the potential impacts of climate change and associated extremes in the area, but they showed a real interest for future climate estimations necessary to undertake reliable adaptation measures. At institutional level, do not exist specialized departments (job positions) to tackle or manage climate information and climate-related aspects, this not being a pressing or priority issue for the city. The climate services aspects are seen with interest mainly in supplying climate scenarios and models for a relatively short term (next 10 or 15 years), the climate information being in this way included in the local planning strategies.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Performance assessment and parameterization of the SWAP-WOFOST model for peat soil under agricultural use in northern Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, Sascha; Bechtold, Michel; Hendriks, Rob; Piayda, Arndt; Regina, Kristiina; Myllys, Merja; Tiemeyer, Bärbel

2017-04-01

Peat soils form a major share of soil suitable for agriculture in northern Europe. Successful agricultural production depends on hydrological and pedological conditions, local climate and agricultural management. Climate change impact assessment on food production and development of mitigation and adaptation strategies require reliable yield forecasts under given emission scenarios. Coupled soil hydrology - crop growth models, driven by regionalized future climate scenarios are a valuable tool and widely used for this purpose. Parameterization on local peat soil conditions and crop breed or grassland specie performance, however, remains a major challenge. The subject of this study is to evaluate the performance and sensitivity of the SWAP-WOFOST coupled soil hydrology and plant growth model with respect to the application on peat soils under different regional conditions across northern Europe. Further, the parameterization of region-specific crop and grass species is discussed. First results of the model application and parameterization at deep peat sites in southern Finland are presented. The model performed very well in reproducing two years of observed, daily ground water level data on four hydrologically contrasting sites. Naturally dry and wet sites could be modelled with the same performance as sites with active water table management by regulated drains in order to improve peat conservation. A simultaneous multi-site calibration scheme was used to estimate plant growth parameters of the local oat breed. Cross-site validation of the modelled yields against two years of observations proved the robustness of the chosen parameter set and gave no indication of possible overparameterization. This study proves the suitability of the coupled SWAP-WOFOST model for the prediction of crop yields and water table dynamics of peat soils in agricultural use under given climate conditions.

Role of selection and gene flow in population differentiation at the edge vs. interior of the species range differing in climatic conditions.

PubMed

Volis, S; Ormanbekova, D; Shulgina, I

2016-04-01

Evaluating the relative importance of neutral and adaptive processes as determinants of population differentiation across environments is a central theme of evolutionary biology. We applied the QST-FST comparison flanked by a direct test for local adaptation to infer the role of climate-driven selection and gene flow in population differentiation of an annual grass Avena sterilis in two distinct parts of the species range, edge and interior, which represent two globally different climates, desert and Mediterranean. In a multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment, the plants of desert and Mediterranean origin demonstrated home advantage, and population differentiation in several phenotypic traits related to reproduction exceeded neutral predictions, as determined by comparisons of QST values with theoretical FST distributions. Thus, variation in these traits likely resulted from local adaptation to desert and Mediterranean environments. The two separate common garden experiments conducted with different experimental design revealed that two population comparisons, in contrast to multi-population comparisons, are likely to detect population differences in virtually every trait, but many of these differences reflect effects of local rather than regional environment. We detected a general reduction in neutral (SSR) genetic variation but not in adaptive quantitative trait variation in peripheral desert as compared with Mediterranean core populations. On the other hand, the molecular data indicated intensive gene flow from the Mediterranean core towards desert periphery. Although species range position in our study (edge vs. interior) was confounded with climate (desert vs. Mediterranean), the results suggest that the gene flow from the species core does not have negative consequences for either performance of the peripheral plants or their adaptive potential. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

TV Weathercasters as Climate Educators: Rationale, Evidence for Effectiveness, and Potential for Nationwide Scale-Up. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maibach, E.; Cullen, H. M.; Witte, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is influencing every region of the nation through weather and climatic events including heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation and floods, more intense hurricanes, and forest fires, yet most Americans continue to perceive climate change as a problem distant in time (with impacts a generation or more away), and in space (that will primarily affect other countries, not the United States). This may be caused, in part, due to the fact that climate change is often described in global, abstract, and analytical terms that are hard for people to connect to their own lives. The impacts of climate change, however, can be personally experienced at the local level, including through unusual weather events; cognitive science has shown that the human brain is more adept at learning through personal experience than through analytical reasoning. In this paper we will describe our efforts to enable America's TV weathercasters to embrace the role of climate educator. Weathercasters are a relatively small cohort of highly skilled communication professionals who are optimally positioned to reach a large majority of the American public, and help move their viewers beyond an abstract (distant) notion of global climate change and toward an understanding of climate change that is both local and concrete. Approximately 70% of American adults watch local TV news, and their primary reason for doing so is to learn about the weather. Our research has shown that TV weathercasters are second only to scientists and government science agencies as trusted sources of information about climate change. Our surveys have also shown that - in every region of the country - many TV weathercasters are willing to embrace the role of climate educator, if certain barriers can be overcome. Our experimental pilot-test - in Columbia, South Carolina - of a model developed to help overcome those barriers demonstrated that: when TV weathercasters make an effort to educate their viewers about the local ramifications of climate change, their viewers learn. Our current attempts to scale-up the model on a limited basis - in one state as a field experiment, and elsewhere around the nation on an uncontrolled basis - are showing promise in terms of attracting an increasing numbers of participating weathercasters. Lastly, professional associations that represent TV weathercasters (AMS and NWA), and government agencies that produce climate and weather data for meteorologists (NOAA and NASA), are committed to help scale up this model so that all interested TV weathercasters have easy access to localized information through which to educate their viewers about local weather and related implications of climate change. In sum, by engaging and empowering TV weathercasters as climate educators, we seek to increase public understanding of the relationships among climate, climate variability, climate change, weather extremes and community vulnerability, and we believe this model has considerable potential.

Applicability of WRF-Lake System in Studying Reservoir-Induced Impacts on Local Climate: Case Study of Two Reservoirs with Contrasting Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Zhu, D.; Ni, G.; Sun, T.

2017-12-01

Large reservoirs play a key role in regional hydrological cycles as well as in modulating the local climate. The emerging large reservoirs in concomitant with rapid hydropower exploitation in southwestern China warrant better understanding of their impacts on local and regional climates. One of the crucial pathways through which reservoirs impact the climate is lake-atmospheric interaction. Although such interactions have been widely studied with numeric weather prediction (NWP) models, an outstanding limitation across various NWPs resides on the poor thermodynamic representation of lakes. The recent version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system has been equipped with a one-dimensional lake model to better represent the thermodynamics of large water body and has been shown to enhance the its predication skill in the lake-atmospheric interaction. In this study, we further explore the applicability of the WRF-Lake system in two reservoirs with contrasting characteristics: Miyun Reservoir with an average depth of 30 meters in North China Plain, and Nuozhadu Reservoir with an average depth of 200 meters in the Tibetan Plateau Region. Driven by the high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological forcing data, the WRF-Lake system is used to simulate the water temperature and surface energy budgets of the two reservoirs after the evaluation against temperature observations. The simulated results show the WRF-Lake model can well predict the vertical profile of water temperature in Miyun Reservoir, but underestimates deep water temperature and overestimates surface temperature in the deeper Nuozhadu Reservoir. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates the poor performance of the WRF-Lake system in Nuozhadu Reservoir could be attributed to the weak vertical mixing in the model, which can be improved by tuning the eddy diffusion coefficient ke . Keywords: reservoir-induced climatic impact; lake-atmospheric interaction; WRF-Lake system; hydropower exploitation

AIRS Observations Based Evaluation of Relative Climate Feedback Strengths on a GCM Grid-Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J.

2012-12-01

Climate feedback strengths, especially those associated with moist processes, still have a rather wide range in GCMs, the primary tools to predict future climate changes associated with man's ever increasing influences on our planet. Here, we make use of the first 10 years of AIRS observations to evaluate interrelationships/correlations of atmospheric moist parameter anomalies computed from AIRS Version 5 Level-3 products, and demonstrate their usefulness to assess relative feedback strengths. Although one may argue about the possible usability of shorter-term, observed climate parameter anomalies for estimating the strength of various (mostly moist processes related) feedbacks, recent works, in particular analyses by Dessler [2008, 2010], have demonstrated their usefulness in assessing global water vapor and cloud feedbacks. First, we create AIRS-observed monthly anomaly time-series (ATs) of outgoing longwave radiation, water vapor, clouds and temperature profile over a 10-year long (Sept. 2002 through Aug. 2012) period using 1x1 degree resolution (a common GCM grid-scale). Next, we evaluate the interrelationships of ATs of the above parameters with the corresponding 1x1 degree, as well as global surface temperature ATs. The latter provides insight comparable with more traditional climate feedback definitions (e. g., Zelinka and Hartmann, 2012) whilst the former is related to a new definition of "local (in surface temperature too) feedback strengths" on a GCM grid-scale. Comparing the correlation maps generated provides valuable new information on the spatial distribution of relative climate feedback strengths. We argue that for GCMs to be trusted for predicting longer-term climate variability, they should be able to reproduce these observed relationships/metrics as closely as possible. For this time period the main climate "forcing" was associated with the El Niño/La Niña variability (e. g., Dessler, 2010), so these assessments may not be descriptive of longer-term climate feedbacks due to global warming, for example. Nevertheless, one should take more confidence of greenhouse warming predictions of those GCMs that reproduce the (high quality observations-based) shorter-term feedback-relationships the best.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

The influence of oceanic basins on drought and ecosystem dynamics in Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos Pereira, Marcos Paulo; Justino, Flavio; Mendes Malhado, Ana Claudia; Barbosa, Humberto; Marengo, José

2014-12-01

The 2012 drought in Northeast Brazil was the harshest in decades, with potentially significant impacts on the vegetation of the unique semi-arid caatinga biome and on local livelihoods. Here, we use a coupled climate-vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) to: (1) investigate the role of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the 2012 drought, and; (2) evaluate the response of the caatinga vegetation to the 2012 climate extreme. Our results indicate that anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean were the primary factor forcing the 2012 drought, with Pacific Ocean SST having a larger role in sustaining typical climatic conditions in the region. The drought strongly influenced net primary production in the caatinga, causing a reduction in annual net ecosystem exchange indicating a reduction in amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere.

Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Aït Baha region (Morocco).

PubMed

Seif-Ennasr, Marieme; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Hirich, Abdelaziz; Caroletti, Giulio Nils; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Beraaouz, El Hassane; McDonnell, Rachael A; Choukr-Allah, Redouane

2016-12-15

This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Aït Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2°C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5°C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-efforts ratio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements on environment for heatwave alleviation and response can be done. In particular, if vulnerable regions of heatwave can be identified and managed in advance, the study results are expected to be utilized as a basis of policy utilization in local communities accordingly.

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-11-01

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

"Nuestra Tierra Dinamica" Global Climate Change STEM Education Fostering Environmental Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Grave, M.; de Valenzuela, M.; Russell, R.

2012-12-01

CLUB ECO LÓGICO is a democratic and participatory program that provides active citizenship in schools and community, placing climate change into context for the Latino Community. The program's objectives focus on: 1. The Environment. Reducing the school and community impact on the environment through environmental footprint through stewardship actions. 2. Empowerment. Engaging participants through project and service learning and make decisions about how to improve their schools, their homes and their community's environment. 3. Community and Research Partnerships. Fostering collaborations with local community, stakeholders, government, universities, research organizations, and businesses that have expertise in environmental research, management, education and climate change. 4. Awareness. Increasing environmental and climate science knowledge of participants through STEM activities and hands-on access to technology. 5. Research and evaluation. Assessing the relevance of program activities through the engagement of the Latino community in planning and the effectiveness and impact of STEM activities through formative and summative evaluation. To address these objectives, the program has several inter related components in an after school setting: SUN EARTH Connections: Elementary (grades K to 2) students learn the basic climate change concepts through inquiry and hands on STEM activities. Bilingual 8 facilitators adapt relevant NASA educational resources for use in inquiry based, hands on activities. Drama and the arts provide unique experiences as well as play a key role in learning, participation and facilitation. GREEN LABS: Elementary students (grades 3 to 5) participate in stations where each Lab is staffed by at least two professionals: a College level fully bilingual Latin American Professional and a stakeholder representing either a research organization or other relevant environmental organization. Our current Green Lab themes include: Air, Soils, Water, Energy, Health, Waste and Communicating Science. Parental and Community Engagement: Family or Community Nights and community events showcasing student products, videos, and service learning projects in a bilingual format; and presentations by research scientists on climate and environmental science topics of interest to the Latino community. Our events have been highlighted on Univision television evening news, reaching Latinos across the state. Digital Story Telling: Our Video Lab involves Latino high school students who are trained as mentors, encouraged to research climate change topics, meet scientists and learn about video technology. By fall 2013, our HS Video Lab will mentor local middle school students. Throughout the year students take field trips to film and interview key scientists and educators. The project will share lessons learned concerning several issues: 1. What environmental and climate science issues are most relevant for Latinos; 2. What strategies are effective in engaging the Latino community in program planning and in engaging participation; 3. What approaches are effective in developing or adapting environmental and climate science education activities for Latino students and families; 4. How to develop effective partnerships with research and other environmental organizations; 5. How to develop culturally sensitive evaluation strategies.

Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: A survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Junni, E-mail: junxinni@163.com; Hansen, Alana, E-mail: alana.hansen@adelaide.edu.au; Zhang, Ying, E-mail: ying.zhang@sydney.edu.au

Background: A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government's policy-making, service provider's guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed. Results:more » More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents' perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection. Conclusion: There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development. - Highlights: • Global climate change has significant impacts on human wellbeing and health. • Health professionals play a significant role in improving the health of local citizens in China. • Perceptions of CDC staff on climate change are useful for policy making. • There are gaps between perceptions and actions among these health professionals in China. • Further efforts need to raise awareness of climate change and promote relevant actions.« less

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Adapting to Teach Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkening, B.; Schwartz, K. L.

2017-12-01

Adaptation is a key strategy to deal with the effects of climate change, and it can also be a key strategy in teaching climate literacy. Adapting curriculum to include utilizing new instructional practices, modifying existing lessons, evaluating evidence and engaging students in real-world projects are strategies employed in Recharge the Rain. Arizona Project WET and Watershed Management Group developed the Recharge the Rain project, through a NOAA Environmental Literacy Grant, to build community resiliency to hazards associated with increased temperatures, drought and flooding in Arizona. Sixth through twelfth grade teachers, students and the public will move through a continuum from awareness, to knowledge gain, to conceptual understanding, to action. During the first year of the project, through professional development and ongoing guidance, teachers developed a climate literacy curriculum to use in their classrooms. Using systems thinking language and structure from the Cabrera Research Labs, teachers and students gain the thinking tools necessary to increase understanding of Earth's climate system. Lessons and resources for teaching about climate change are abundant and many, such as those on the Climate Literacy Education Awareness Network (CLEAN), have gone through an extensive review process. By cataloguing online resources and sharing these with teachers through a social bookmarking tool, wakelet.com, teachers are easily able to find appropriate teaching material. Engaging students in evaluating evidence requires the data to be relevant to their everyday lives. Online data resources are readily available from NOAA and other sources at both the global and local levels. When teachers, students and the public contribute to the data collection process in citizen science projects such as CoCoRaHS, iSeeChange, and USA National Phenology Network, the data empowers them to act in ways to mitigate the climate threats in their community. Adapting to teach climate literacy can create a community of teachers, students and the public who are moving forward with making responsible decisions that affect the climate.

Climate Connections in Virginia: Your Actions Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2016-12-01

Our project objectives are to educate the general public about the science of climate change on global and local scales, highlight current and potential future impacts of climate change on Virginia and its communities, define community climate resiliency and why it is important, illustrate how individuals can contribute to the resiliency of their own community by taking personal steps to be prepared for weather events and health threats related to climate change, and, foster a conversion of climate change awareness and understanding into personal action to increase readiness and resiliency in homes, schools, and communities. The communication methods used to convey climate change and resiliency information are: development of new programming for the museum's NOAA Science on a Sphere® and digital Dome theater, production of a statewide digital media series (24 audio and 12 video content pieces/year), engagement with social media platforms, a public lecture series, facilitation of resiliency-themed programming (Art Lab, Challenge Lab, EcoLab), establishment of extreme event readiness challenge workshops, and enacting community preparedness and resiliency checklist and certification programs. A front-end evaluation was conducted to survey general audience understanding of the difference between climate and weather, climate change impacts, and resilience. We seek here to share some initial content and reflection based on the first few months of this project. Funded by NOAA Award NA15SEC0080009 and the Virginia Environmental Endowment.

Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.

PubMed

Ellenwood, Mikaela S; Dilling, Lisa; Milford, Jana B

2012-05-01

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Making the Earth to Life Connection Using Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haine, D. B.; Berbeco, M.

2016-12-01

From ocean acidification to changes in air quality to shifts in the range of disease vectors, there are many opportunities for educators to make the earth science to life science connection by incorporating the impacts of climate change on organisms and entire ecosystems and by describing how living organisms impact climate. NCSE's study in Science found that 86% of life science teachers are teaching climate, but few admit they have any formal climate science training. This session will introduce activities we developed that utilize the 2014 National Climate Assessment, data visualizations, technology tools and models to allow students to explore the evidence that climate change is impacting life. Translating the NCA into classroom activities is an approach that becomes more pertinent with the advent of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Using the NCA and the NGSS we demonstrate strategies for weaving the concept of climate change into an already packed life science curriculum by enhancing rather than displacing content and ultimately promoting integration of science and engineering practices into instruction. Since the fall of 2014 we have engaged approximately 200 K-12 educators at local, state, regional and national teacher professional development events. Here we will summarize what we have learned from science teachers about how they address life science impacts of climate change and we will summarize evaluation data to inform future efforts to engage life science educators in light of the recent USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment and the upcoming 4th National Climate Assessment.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

2017-12-01

Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this presentation, we report the progress of community teams currently engaged in this program from throughout Alaska.

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.

PubMed

Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James

2018-04-14

Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?

PubMed

Aswani, Shankar; Vaccaro, Ismael; Abernethy, Kirsten; Albert, Simon; de Pablo, Javier Fernández-López

2015-12-01

Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.

Numerical study of the vertical shading devices effect on the thermal performance of promotional apartments in hot dry climate of Algeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkouk, Djihed; Bouzir, Tallal Abdel Karim; Mazouz, Said

2018-05-01

The bioclimatic architecture considers the local climatic conditions in order to reconcile maximally the comfort condition of the occupants. Through the several simulations effectuated by the TRNSYS software, this paper shows that the new architecture produced in the south of Algeria following the northern cities tendency is not fully adapted to the hot dry climate of the southern regions, such as the city of Biskra. In these regions, the passive techniques design influence strongly on the thermal architectural space performance. In this regard, diverse of the vertical shading devices size were proposed to evaluate the impact of this passive technique on the thermal performance of the promotional apartments situated in the city of Biskra. The comparative analysis between the simulation results says that the effectiveness of the vertical shading devices on the thermal performance spaces is reducing the indoor air temperature during the summer period. In addition, this analysis shows that promotional apartments are unsuitable for the desert climate.

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-02-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

PubMed Central

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes. PMID:29461538

Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Drobinski, Philippe; Borga, Marco; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Delrieu, Guy; Morin, Efrat; Tartari, Gianni; Toffolon, Roberta

2012-06-01

This letter assesses the quality of temperature and rainfall daily retrievals of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) with respect to measurements collected locally in various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region in the framework of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The ECA&D, among other gridded datasets, is very often used as a reference for model calibration and evaluation. This is for instance the case in the context of the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and its Mediterranean declination MED-CORDEX. This letter quantifies ECA&D dataset uncertainties associated with temperature and precipitation intra-seasonal variability, seasonal distribution and extremes. Our motivation is to help the interpretation of the results when validating or calibrating downscaling models by the ECA&D dataset in the context of regional climate research in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level

PubMed Central

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I.; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. PMID:27227671

Dynamics in Protected Areas and Domesticated Landscapes Caused by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartter, J.; Ryan, S.; Stampone, M.; Chapman, C.

2009-12-01

Climate change, a key factor of concern for conservation, has important biological and social implications. Africa’s Albertine Rift is an area of extremely high endemic biodiversity and is classed as a world conservation priority. However, natural areas are represented by a chain of protected forest areas in a matrix of intensive smallholder agriculture and dense human settlements. Kibale National Park in western Uganda has become an island of forest surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and is the only remaining large area of mid-altitude forest remaining in Albertine Rift Region and East Africa. Increased temperature and precipitation over recent decades has been observed by scientists and local farmers, however, to date, rigorous analysis of local climate data and the impact of climate change on local resources does not exist. Moreover, local farmers report that some crops die or ripen too early because of increased precipitation. Conservation biologists and park managers are concerned that changes in tree phenology and primary productivity will alter wildlife feeding preferences and ranges leading to more human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the impact of local and regional climate change and variation within the social, conservation, and geographic context is necessary to construct informed management plans and to maintain positive park-people relationships. This paper describes our first attempt to fully integrate multiple temporal and spatial datasets, and our progress in developing an interdisciplinary framework to study social and ecological relationships in the Kibale landscape. We examine historical in situ climate data and proxy climate information derived from remotely sensed satellite-borne imagery in our preliminary analyses. Our goal is to link these data with both pre-existing imagery analyses and tree community composition and phenology data from 39 years of ongoing research to identify the pattern, trajectory, and drivers of local environmental change in and around Kibale National Park. We will also incorporate knowledge of local people’s perceived risks due to change and their adaptation to that change.

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level.

PubMed

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.

Impact of surface water withdrawals on water storage variations under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Mousavi Baygi, M.; Alizadeh, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Miao, C.; Arab, D. R.; Anjileli, H.

2016-12-01

Quantitative evaluation of water storage variations in large river basins is an important element of water management, especially in a climate change. In addition, human water use has developed into another strong driver of water storage changes especially in densely populated semiarid and arid areas. In this study, we estimate the normalized human outflow of the thirty main basins in Iran during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century in four major basins (Urmia, Karkheh, Karun and Jarrahi) located in semi-arid areas of Iran. These basins are selected because they experienced medium to high human-induced water demand in last decades. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results show that humans have strongly impacted the water balances of most basins in Iran, dominating potential climate change impacts in the historical period. In fact, the main reason for water scarcity in these regions appears to be due to the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades. Furthermore, by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the need to improve our understanding of the hydrologic responses to anthropogenic perturbations, and local water resource management decisions.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Linlin; Liu, Yubao; Liu, Yuewei; Li, Lei; Jiang, Yin; Cheng, Will; Roux, Gregory

2015-12-01

This study investigates the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis, which employs the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) WRF (the weather research and forecasting model) based on climate FDDA (CFDDA) technology to develop an urban-scale microclimatology database for the Shenzhen area, a rapidly developing metropolitan located along the southern coast of China, where uniquely high-density observations, including ultrahigh-resolution surface AWS (automatic weather station) network, radio sounding, wind profilers, radiometers, and other weather observation platforms, have been installed. CFDDA is an innovative dynamical downscaling regional climate analysis system that assimilates diverse regional observations; and has been employed to produce a 5 year multiscale high-resolution microclimate analysis by assimilating high-density observations at Shenzhen area. The CFDDA system was configured with four nested-grid domains at grid sizes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km, respectively. This research evaluates the impact of assimilating high-resolution observation data on reproducing the refining features of urban-scale circulations. Two experiments were conducted with a 5 year run using CFSR (climate forecast system reanalysis) as boundary and initial conditions: one with CFDDA and the other without. The comparisons of these two experiments with observations indicate that CFDDA greatly reduces the model analysis error and is able to realistically analyze the microscale features such as urban-rural-coastal circulation, land/sea breezes, and local-hilly terrain thermal circulations. It is demonstrated that the urbanization can produce 2.5 k differences in 2 m temperatures, delays/speeds up the land/sea breeze development, and interacts with local mountain-valley circulations.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-03-31

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-01-01

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies. PMID:25824529

A 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest.

PubMed

Bocinsky, R Kyle; Kohler, Timothy A

2014-12-04

Humans experience, adapt to and influence climate at local scales. Paleoclimate research, however, tends to focus on continental, hemispheric or global scales, making it difficult for archaeologists and paleoecologists to study local effects. Here we introduce a method for high-frequency, local climate-field reconstruction from tree-rings. We reconstruct the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in two regions of the southwestern United States with dense populations of prehispanic farmers. Niche size and stability are highly variable within and between the regions. Prehispanic rain-fed maize farmers tended to live in agricultural refugia--areas most reliably in the niche. The timing and trajectory of the famous thirteenth century Pueblo migration can be understood in terms of relative niche size and stability. Local reconstructions like these illuminate the spectrum of strategies past humans used to adapt to climate change by recasting climate into the distributions of resources on which they depended.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

Strong contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of urban green vegetation.

PubMed

Yu, Zhaowu; Xu, Shaobin; Zhang, Yuhan; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Vejre, Henrik

2018-05-01

Utilization of urban green vegetation (UGV) has been recognized as a promising option to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect. While we still lack understanding of the contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of UGV. Here we proposed and employed a cooling effect framework and selected eight typical cities located in Temperate Monsoon Climate (TMC) and Mediterranean Climate (MC) demonstrate that local climate condition largely affects the cooling effect of UGV. Specifically, we found increasing (artificial) rainfall and irrigation contribute to improving the cooling intensity of grassland in both climates, particularly in the hot-dry environment. The cities with high relative humidity would restrict the cooling effect of UGV. Increasing wind speed would significantly enhance the tree-covered while weakening the grass-covered UGVs' cooling effect in MC cities. We also identified that, in order to achieve the most effective cooling with the smallest sized tree-covered UGV, the area of trees in both climate zones' cities should generally be planned around 0.5 ha. The method and results enhance understanding of the cooling effect of UGVs on larger (climate) scales and provide important insights for UGV planning and management.

Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørstad, Hanne; Webersik, Christian

2016-12-01

In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base and struggle with poverty, existing inequalities and historical injustices will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change. The empirical part of the paper answers the question as to what extent local women engaged in fish processing in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. The article assesses an adaptation project designed to make those women more resilient to a warmer and more variable climate. The research results show that marketing and improving fish processing as strategies to adapt to climate change have their limitations. The study concludes that livelihood diversification can be a more effective strategy for Malawian women to adapt to a more variable and unpredictable climate rather than exclusively relying on a resource base that is threatened by climate change.

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto; Miles, Donald B; Heulin, Benoit; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Villagrán-Santa Cruz, Maricela; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael; Martínez-Méndez, Norberto; Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía; Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi; Gadsden, Héctor; Avila, Luciano Javier; Morando, Mariana; De la Riva, Ignacio J; Victoriano Sepulveda, Pedro; Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte; Ibargüengoytía, Nora; Aguilar Puntriano, César; Massot, Manuel; Lepetz, Virginie; Oksanen, Tuula A; Chapple, David G; Bauer, Aaron M; Branch, William R; Clobert, Jean; Sites, Jack W

2010-05-14

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States.

PubMed

Bagley, Justin E; Miller, Jesse; Bernacchi, Carl J

2015-09-01

The potential impacts of climate change in the Midwest United States present unprecedented challenges to regional agriculture. In response to these challenges, a variety of climate-smart agricultural methodologies have been proposed to retain or improve crop yields, reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, retain soil quality and increase climate resilience of agricultural systems. One component that is commonly neglected when assessing the environmental impacts of climate-smart agriculture is the biophysical impacts, where changes in ecosystem fluxes and storage of moisture and energy lead to perturbations in local climate and water availability. Using a combination of observational data and an agroecosystem model, a series of climate-smart agricultural scenarios were assessed to determine the biophysical impacts these techniques have in the Midwest United States. The first scenario extended the growing season for existing crops using future temperature and CO2 concentrations. The second scenario examined the biophysical impacts of no-till agriculture and the impacts of annually retaining crop debris. Finally, the third scenario evaluated the potential impacts that the adoption of perennial cultivars had on biophysical quantities. Each of these scenarios was found to have significant biophysical impacts. However, the timing and magnitude of the biophysical impacts differed between scenarios. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Watershed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts: A case of Kiha Watershed in Albertine Graben

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zizinga, A.

2017-12-01

Watershed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts: A case of Kiha Watershed in Albertine GrabenAlex Zizinga1, Moses Tenywa2, Majaliwa Jackson Gilbert1, 1Makerere University, Department of Environmental Sciences, O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 1Makerere University, Department of Agricultural Production, P.O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda Corresponding author: azizinga@caes.mak.ac.ug AbstractThe most pressing issues local communities in Uganda are facing result from land-use and land cover changes exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key issue is the documentation of land-cover changes visible with the ongoing clearance of remaining forests, bush-lands and wetlands for expanding farmland for sugarcane production, producing charcoal and collecting firewood for local distilleries using imported molasses. Decision-makers, resource managers, farmers and practitioners must build their capacity for adaptive measures. Here we present the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrological processes in the River Kiha Watershed, located in Western Uganda, Lake Albert Water Management Zone, by using social learning techniques incorporating water users, local stakeholders and researchers. The research team examined different farming and economic activities within the watershed to assess their impacts on catchment water resources, namely on water quality and discharge of river Kiha. We present the impacts of locally induced climate change, which are already manifested in increasing seasonal variability of rainfall. The study aims at answering questions posed by local communities and stakeholders about climate change and its effects on livelihood and key resources, specifically water and soils within the Kiha watershed. Key words: Climate change impacts, Social Learning and Watershed Management

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

2014-12-01

Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in specifying how severe the climate effects may be or how those impacts compound existing hazards in the system, the Resiliency Study focused on identifying a variety of 'no regrets' policy options that can help the local communities anticipate, respond and recover faster and more efficiently to climate extremes.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana

Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall data from local stations are developed. These are used to develop scenarios for local rainfall statistics such as average annual amounts, dry spells, wet spells and drought persistence. This suite of models can provide information that is not attainable from existing tools in terms of its spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the goal is to project the impact of established global climate change scenarios in this region and, how much of the change might be mitigated by proposed CO2 reduction strategies. A major problem in this enterprise is to find the best way to integrate global climatic information with local rainfall data. From the climatologic perspective the problem is to find the right teleconnections. That is, non local or global measurable phenomena that influence local rainfall in a way that could be characterized and quantified statistically. From the computational perspective the challenge is to model these subtle, nonlinear relationships and to downscale the global effects into local predictions. Climate simulations to the year 2100 under selected climate change scenarios are used. Overall, the suite of models developed and presented can be applied to answer most questions from the different water users and planners. Farmers and the irrigation community can ask "What is the probability of rain over the next week?" Policy makers can ask "How much desalination capacity will I need to meet demand 90% of the time in the climate change scenario over the next 20 years?" Aquifer managers can ask "What is the expected recharge rate of the aquifers over the next decade?" The use of climate driven answers to these questions will help the region better prepare and adapt to future shifts in water resources and availability.

Evaluating collective significance of climatic trends: A comparison of methods on synthetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huth, Radan; Dubrovský, Martin

2017-04-01

The common approach to determine whether climatic trends are significantly different from zero is to conduct individual (local) tests at each single site (station or gridpoint). Whether the number of sites where the trends are significantly non-zero can or cannot occur by random, is almost never evaluated in trend studies. That is, collective (global) significance of trends is ignored. We compare three approaches to evaluating collective statistical significance of trends at a network of sites, using the following statistics: (i) the number of successful local tests (a successful test means here a test in which the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected); this is a standard way of assessing collective significance in various applications in atmospheric sciences; (ii) the smallest p-value among the local tests (Walker test); and (iii) the counts of positive and negative trends regardless of their magnitudes and local significance. The third approach is a new procedure that we propose; the rationale behind it is that it is reasonable to assume that the prevalence of one sign of trends at individual sites is indicative of a high confidence in the trend not being zero, regardless of the (in)significance of individual local trends. A potentially large amount of information contained in trends that are not locally significant, which are typically deemed irrelevant and neglected, is thus not lost and is retained in the analysis. In this contribution we examine the feasibility of the proposed way of significance testing on synthetic data, produced by a multi-site stochastic generator, and compare it with the two other ways of assessing collective significance, which are well established now. The synthetic dataset, mimicking annual mean temperature on an array of stations (or gridpoints), is constructed assuming a given statistical structure characterized by (i) spatial separation (density of the station network), (ii) local variance, (iii) temporal and spatial autocorrelations, and (iv) the trend magnitude. The probabilistic distributions of the three test statistics (null distributions) and critical values of the tests are determined from multiple realizations of the synthetic dataset, in which no trend is imposed at each site (that is, any trend is a result of random fluctuations only). The procedure is then evaluated by determining the type II error (the probability of a false detection of a trend) in the presence of a trend with a known magnitude, for which the synthetic dataset with an imposed spatially uniform non-zero trend is used. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for various combinations of the trend magnitude and spatial autocorrelation.

Adaptation Measures Evaliation on Agriculture Under Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.; Meza, F. J.

2016-12-01

Future climate change scenarios threaten current practices in agriculture and therefore adaptation measures have been proposed to overcome this possible situation. Regional to local ideas apply for all kind of adaptation measures and can be found among literature for Central Chile, but their quantitative efficiency is rarely evaluated. Furthermore, land uses changes are commonly neglected in such evaluations. This research use the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) to simulate weekly water distribution and consumption in Chile's rural areas up to 2050. Using information directly provided by the Water User Organizations (WUO), the developed model assesses possible future impacts on 2 crops (corn and plum) under 15 climate scenarios and land use trends. Results show that WEAP-PGM tool can represent satisfactorily crop sensitiveness to historic and future circumstances. Nine scenarios satisfy average crop water demands, but all of them present a diminished yield (1%-14%) and production (8%-20%). Just six scenarios cannot meet crop water demands (40-70% of reliability) if adaptation measures are not applied. Given this need, two adaptation measures were evaluated: a) using all water rights and b) irrigation improvements. The second option showed to be the most effective measure leading to the satisfaction of crop water demands under all the scenarios, but still a diminished yield and production remained.

Limits of pastoral adaptation to permafrost regions caused by climate change among the Sakha people in the middle basin of Lena River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Hiroki

2016-09-01

This article focuses on the pastoral practices of the Sakha people in eastern Siberia to explore the impact of climate change on human livelihood in permafrost regions. Sakha use grassland resources in river terraces and the alaas thermokarst landscape for cattle-horse husbandry. Although they practice a different form of subsistence than other indigenous arctic peoples, such as hunter - gatherers or reindeer herders, the adaptation of Sakha has been relatively resilient in the past 600-800 years. Recent climate change, however, could change this situation. According to hydrologists, increased precipitation is now observed in eastern Siberia, which has resulted in the increase of permafrost thawing, causing forests to die. Moreover, local meteorologists report an increase of flooding in local rivers. How do these changes affect the local pastoral adaptation? While describing recent uses of grassland resource by local people, and their perception of climate change through anthropological field research, I investigated the subtle characteristics of human-environment interactions in pastoral adaptation, in order to identify the limits of adaptation in the face of climate change.

Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C

2004-06-22

According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk.

Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

PubMed

Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

2016-06-01

Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

EPA Science Inventory

Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

Local Climate and Energy Program Model Design Guide: Enhancing Value and Creating Lasting Programs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Created for local climate and clean energy program implementers, learn how programs create and deliver value to target audiences and partners, how to raise revenue, and how they can operate cost effectively.

Sustained Climate Assessments in California: Linkages with Local and National Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, G.; Bedsworth, L. W.

2016-12-01

This presentation will include discussions about the nature of the sustained Climate Assessments in California and their links to local, regional, and national efforts. The State of California has been supporting regional climate change science for more than two decades to complement federal and international research efforts. State sponsored research has been extremely useful to inform climate policy action and long-term planning in California. California has undertaken six climate assessments since 1998; the last three of these began in 2006 in response to an Executive Order from the Governor. California is now coordinating its next assessment (2018) not only with local/regional efforts (e.g., a group of studies focused on the San Francisco Bay region) but also with USGCRP and the next National Assessment. California is also already supporting foundation work for models and tools that would be used for the 2022 California Assessment.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

2015-12-01

As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

PubMed

Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

2010-10-07

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missing Rings, Synchronous Growth, and Ecological Disturbance in a 36-Year Pitch Pine (Pinus rigida) Provenance Study.

PubMed

Leland, Caroline; Hom, John; Skowronski, Nicholas; Ledig, F Thomas; Krusic, Paul J; Cook, Edward R; Martin-Benito, Dario; Martin-Fernandez, Javier; Pederson, Neil

2016-01-01

Provenance studies are an increasingly important analog for understanding how trees adapted to particular climatic conditions might respond to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis can illuminate differences among trees from different seed sources in terms of absolute annual growth and sensitivity to external growth factors. We analyzed annual radial growth of 567 36-year-old pitch pine (Pinus rigida Mill.) trees from 27 seed sources to evaluate their performance in a New Jersey Pine Barrens provenance experiment. Unexpectedly, missing rings were prevalent in most trees, and some years-1992, 1999, and 2006-had a particularly high frequency of missing rings across the plantation. Trees from local seed sources (<55 km away from the plantation) had a significantly smaller percentage of missing rings from 1980-2009 (mean: 5.0%), relative to northernmost and southernmost sources (mean: 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively). Some years with a high frequency of missing rings coincide with outbreaks of defoliating insects or dry growing season conditions. The propensity for missing rings synchronized annual variations in growth across all trees and might have complicated the detection of potential differences in interannual variability among seed sources. Average ring width was significantly larger in seed sources from both the southernmost and warmest origins compared to the northernmost and coldest seed sources in most years. Local seed sources had the highest average radial growth. Adaptation to local environmental conditions and disturbances might have influenced the higher growth rate found in local seed sources. These findings underscore the need to understand the integrative impact of multiple environmental drivers, such as disturbance agents and climate change, on tree growth, forest dynamics, and the carbon cycle.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Missing Rings, Synchronous Growth, and Ecological Disturbance in a 36-Year Pitch Pine (Pinus rigida) Provenance Study

PubMed Central

Leland, Caroline; Hom, John; Skowronski, Nicholas; Krusic, Paul J.; Cook, Edward R.; Martin-Benito, Dario; Martin-Fernandez, Javier; Pederson, Neil

2016-01-01

Provenance studies are an increasingly important analog for understanding how trees adapted to particular climatic conditions might respond to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis can illuminate differences among trees from different seed sources in terms of absolute annual growth and sensitivity to external growth factors. We analyzed annual radial growth of 567 36-year-old pitch pine (Pinus rigida Mill.) trees from 27 seed sources to evaluate their performance in a New Jersey Pine Barrens provenance experiment. Unexpectedly, missing rings were prevalent in most trees, and some years—1992, 1999, and 2006—had a particularly high frequency of missing rings across the plantation. Trees from local seed sources (<55 km away from the plantation) had a significantly smaller percentage of missing rings from 1980–2009 (mean: 5.0%), relative to northernmost and southernmost sources (mean: 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively). Some years with a high frequency of missing rings coincide with outbreaks of defoliating insects or dry growing season conditions. The propensity for missing rings synchronized annual variations in growth across all trees and might have complicated the detection of potential differences in interannual variability among seed sources. Average ring width was significantly larger in seed sources from both the southernmost and warmest origins compared to the northernmost and coldest seed sources in most years. Local seed sources had the highest average radial growth. Adaptation to local environmental conditions and disturbances might have influenced the higher growth rate found in local seed sources. These findings underscore the need to understand the integrative impact of multiple environmental drivers, such as disturbance agents and climate change, on tree growth, forest dynamics, and the carbon cycle. PMID:27182599

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

2015-12-01

Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce skill development, community education, and/or adaptation/mitigation activities. Students are motivated by advanced real-world skill development, leadership opportunity, internship, community service and opportunity for international peer communication.

Cal-Adapt: California's Climate Data Resource and Interactive Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, N.; Mukhtyar, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Galey, B.; Lehmer, E.

2016-12-01

Cal-Adapt is a web-based application that provides an interactive toolkit and information clearinghouse to help agencies, communities, local planners, resource managers, and the public understand climate change risks and impacts at the local level. The website offers interactive, visually compelling, and useful data visualization tools that show how climate change might affect California using downscaled continental climate data. Cal-Adapt is supporting California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment through providing access to the wealth of modeled and observed data and adaption-related information produced by California's scientific community. The site has been developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) in collaboration with the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Research Program. The Cal-Adapt website allows decision makers, scientists and residents of California to turn research results and climate projections into effective adaptation decisions and policies. Since its release to the public in June 2011, Cal-Adapt has been visited by more than 94,000 unique visitors from over 180 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 689 California localities. We will present several key visualizations that have been employed by Cal-Adapt's users to support their efforts to understand local impacts of climate change, indicate the breadth of data available, and delineate specific use cases. Recently, CEC and GIF have been developing and releasing Cal-Adapt 2.0, which includes updates and enhancements that are increasing its ease of use, information value, visualization tools, and data accessibility. We showcase how Cal-Adapt is evolving in response to feedback from a variety of sources to present finer-resolution downscaled data, and offer an open API that allows other organization to access Cal-Adapt climate data and build domain specific visualization and planning tools. Through a combination of locally relevant information, visualization tools, and access to primary data, Cal-Adapt allows users to investigate how the climate is projected to change in their areas of interest.

The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

2015-12-01

Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory environment where these data may then be correlated with regional climate data to investigate interactions between large-scale environmental changes and local impacts. Esri's Story Maps is a candidate mechanism for sharing of those findings among Tribal stakeholders.

Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Vivoni, E.; Halvorsen, K.; Robles-Morua, A.; Dana, K.; Che, D.; Mirchi, A.; Kossak, D.; Casteneda, M.

2013-05-01

In this project, we are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of three workshops, designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. Participants will guide the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change and infrastructure management scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. Through the theory of planned behavior, the participatory modeling process will be evaluated to understand if, and to what extent, the engineering tools are useful in the uncertain and politically-complex setting. Pre- and post-workshop surveys will be used in this evaluation. For this contribution, we present the results of the first collaborative modeling workshop that will be held in March 2013, where we will develop the initial modeling framework in collaboration with workshop participants.

Scaling and contextualizing climate-conflict nexus in historical agrarian China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Harry F.

2017-04-01

This study examines climate-conflict nexus in historical agrarian China in multi-scalar and contextualized approach, illustrating what and how socio-political factors could significantly mediate the climate-violent link in pre-industrial society. Previous empirical large-N studies show that violent conflict in historical agrarian society was triggered by climate-induced food scarcity. The relationship was valid in China, Europe, and various geographic regions in the Northern Hemisphere in pre-industrial era. Nevertheless, the observed relationship has only been verified at a macro level (long-term variability of the nexus is emphasized and data over large area are aggregated), and somewhat generalized in nature (only physical environmental factors are controlled). Three inter-related issues remain unresolved: First, the key explanatory variable of violent conflicts may change substantially at different spatio-temporal scales. It is necessary to check whether the climate-conflict nexus is valid at a micro level (about short-term variability of the nexus and data in finer spatial resolution), and explore how the nexus changes along various spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, as the climate-conflict nexus has only been demonstrated in a broad sense, it is necessary to check whether and how the nexus is mediated by local socio-political context. More non-climatic factors pertinent to the cause and distribution of conflicts (e.g., governance, adaptive mechanisms, etc.) should be considered. Third, the methodology applied in the previous studies assumes spatially-independent observations and linear relationship, which may simplify the climate-conflict link. Moreover, the solitary reliance on quantitative methods may neglect those non-quantifiable socio-political dynamics which mediates the climate-conflict nexus. I plan to address the above issues by using disaggregated spatial analysis and in-depth case studies, with close attention to local and temporal differences and non-linear nature of the climate-conflict link. China will be chosen as study area. Study period will be delimited to AD1-1911. This study represents pioneering research which systematically examines the climate-conflict nexus in pre-industrial society over extended period in multi-scalar and contextualized perspective. By comparing and evaluating the climate-conflict link along various spatio-temporal dimensions and in different socio-political context, it may help to deepen the theoretical understanding of, and also resolve the current debate over, the climate-conflict relationship. Given the large potential changes in climatic regimes projected in coming decades, the findings in this study may have important implications for the social impact of climate change in tropical countries that are in some ways similar to pre-industrial society.

Integrating Climate Projections into Multi-Level City Planning: A Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Gelca, R.; Baumer, Z.; Gold, G.

2016-12-01

Climate change impacts on energy and water are a serious concern for many cities across the United States. Regional projections from the National Assessment process, or state-specific efforts as in California and Delaware, are typically used to quantify impacts at the regional scale. However, these are often insufficient to provide information at the scale of decision-making for an individual city. Here, we describe a multi-level approach to developing and integrating usable climate information into planning, using a case study from the City of Austin in Texas, a state where few official climate resources are available. Spearheaded by the Office of Sustainability in collaboration with Austin Water, the first step was to characterize observed trends and future projections of how global climate change might affect Austin's current climate. The City then assembled a team of city experts, consulting engineers, and climate scientists to develop a methodology to assess impacts on regional hydrology as part of its Integrated Water Resource Plan, Austin's 100-year water supply and demand planning effort, an effort which included calculating a range of climate indicators and developing and evaluating a new approach to generating climate inputs - including daily streamflow and evaporation - for existing water availability models. This approach, which brings together a range of public, private, and academic experts to support a stakeholder-initiated planning effort, provides concrete insights into the critical importance of multi-level, long-term engagement for development and application of actionable climate science at the local to regional scale.

Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

2018-02-01

This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature ( T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

The implications of climate change on pavement performance and design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-25

Pavements are designed based on historic climatic patterns, reflecting local climate and : incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. : Given anticipated climate changes and the inherent uncertainty a...

Hydrologic drivers of tree biodiversity: The impact of climate change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Konar, M.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Azaele, S.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rinaldo, A.

2009-12-01

Biodiversity of forests is of major importance for society. The possible impact of climate change on the characteristics of tree diversity is a topic of crucial importance with relevant implications for conservation campaigns and resource management. Here we present the main results of the expected biodiversity changes in the Mississippi-Missouri River Basin (MMRS) and two of its subregions under different scenarios of possible climate change. A mechanistic neutral metapopulation model is developed to study the main drivers of large scale biodiversity signatures in the MMRS system. The region is divided into 824 Direct Tributary Areas (DTAs), each one characterized by its own habitat capacity. Data for the spatial occurrence of the 231 species present in the system is taken from the US Forest Service Inventory and Analysis Database. The model has permeable boundaries to account for immigration from the regions surrounding the MMRS. The model accounts for key aspects of ecological dynamics (e.g., birth, death, speciation, and migration) and is fundamentally driven by the mean annual precipitation characteristic of each of the DTAs in the system. It is found that such a simple model, with only four parameters, yields an excellent representation of the observed local species richness (LSR), between-community (β) diversity, and species rank-occupancy function. The mean annual rainfall of each DTA is then changed according to the climate scenarios and new habitat capacities are thus obtained throughout the MMRS and its subregions. The resulting large-scale biodiversity signatures are computed and compared with those of the present scenario, showing that there are very important changes arising from the climate change conditions. For the dry scenarios, it is shown that there is a considerable decrease of species richness, both at local and regional scales, and a contraction of species' geographic ranges. These findings link the hydrologic and ecological dynamics of the MMRS under climate change conditions and are important for a comprehensive evaluation of the climate change impacts over the United States.

Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.

2016-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing resilience planning even as precise prediction of extremes remains difficult. Increased research is necessary to understand hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of populations to characterize the risk of shocks and mechanisms by which unexpected losses drive land-use transitions.

How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

2015-12-01

More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

Clime: analyzing and producing climate data in GIS environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattaneo, Luigi; Rillo, Valeria; Mercogliano, Paola

2014-05-01

In the last years, Impacts on Soil and Coasts Division (ISC) of CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) had several collaboration experiences with impact communities, including IS-ENES (FP7-INF) and SafeLand (FP7-ENV) projects, which involved a study of landslide risk in Europe, and is currently active in GEMINA (FIRB) and ORIENTGATE (SEE Transnational Cooperation Programme) research projects. As a result, it has brought research activities about different impact of climate changes as flood and landslide hazards, based on climate simulation obtained from the high resolution regional climate models COSMO CLM, developed at CMCC as member of the consortium CLM Assembly. ISC-Capua also collaborates with local institutions interested in atmospherical climate change and also of their impacts on the soil, such as river basin authorities in the Campania region, ARPA Emilia Romagna and ARPA Calabria. Impact models (e.g. hydraulic or stability models) are usually developed in a GIS environment, since they need an accurate territory description, so Clime has been designed to bridge the usually existing gap between climate data - both observed and simulated - gathered from different sources, and impact communities. The main goal of Clime, special purpose Geographic Information System (GIS) software integrated in ESRI ArcGIS Desktop 10, is to easily evaluate multiple climate features and study climate changes over specific geographical domains with their related effects on environment, including impacts on soil. Developed as an add-in tool, this software has been conceived for research activities of ISC Division in order to provide a substantial contribution during post-processing and validation phase. Therefore, it is possible to analyze and compare multiple datasets (observations, climate simulations, etc.) through processes involving statistical functions, percentiles, trends test and evaluation of extreme events with a flexible system of temporal and spatial filtering, and to represent results as maps, temporal and statistic plots (time series, seasonal cycles, PDFs, scatter plots, Taylor diagrams) or Excel tables; in addition, it features bias correction techniques for climate model results. Summarizing, Clime is able to provide users a simple and fast way to retrieve analysis over simulated climate data and observations within any geographical site of interest (provinces, regions, countries, etc.).

Linking climate change and karst hydrology to evaluate species vulnerability: The Edwards and Madison aquifers (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, B. J.; Long, A. J.; Stamm, J. F.; Poteet, M.; Symstad, A.

2013-12-01

Karst aquifers present an extreme case of flow along structurally variable pathways, making them highly dynamic systems and therefore likely to respond rapidly to climate change. In turn, many biological communities and ecosystems associated with karst are sensitive to hydrologic changes. We explored how three sites in the Edwards aquifer (Texas) and two sites in the Madison aquifer (South Dakota) might respond to projected climate change from 2011 to 2050. Ecosystems associated with these karst aquifers support federally listed endangered and threatened species and state-listed species of concern, including amphibians, birds, insects, and plants. The vulnerability of selected species associated with projected climate change was assessed. The Advanced Research Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate projected climate at a 36-km grid spacing for three weather stations near the study sites, using boundary and initial conditions from the global climate model Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and an A2 emissions scenario. Daily temperature and precipitation projections from the WRF model were used as input for the hydrologic Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow (RRAWFLOW) model and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) model. RRAWFLOW is a lumped-parameter model that simulates hydrologic response at a single site, combining the responses of quick and slow flow that commonly characterize karst aquifers. CCVI uses historical and projected climate and hydrologic metrics to determine the vulnerability of selected species on the basis of species exposure to climate change, sensitivity to factors associated with climate change, and capacity to adapt to climate change. An upward trend in temperature was projected for 2011-2050 at all three weather stations; there was a trend (downward) in annual precipitation only for the weather station in Texas. A downward trend in mean annual spring flow or groundwater level was projected for all of the Edwards sites, but there was no significant trend for the Madison sites. Of 16 Edwards aquifer species evaluated (four amphibians, six arthropods, one fish, one mollusk, and four plants), 12 were scored as highly or moderately vulnerable under the projected climate change scenario. In contrast, all of the 8 Madison aquifer species evaluated (two mammals, one bird, one mollusk, and four plants) were scored as moderately vulnerable, stable, or intermediate between the two. The inclusion of hydrologic projections in the vulnerability assessment was essential for interpreting the effects of climate change on aquatic species of conservations concern, such as endemic salamanders. The linkage of climate, hydrologic, and vulnerability models provided a bridge to project the effects of global climate change on local karst aquifer and stream systems and selected species.

Analysis of behaviour patterns and thermal responses to a hot-arid climate in rural China.

PubMed

Yan, Haiyan; Yang, Liu; Zheng, Wuxing; He, Wenfang; Li, Daoyi

2016-07-01

Climate can greatly affect building design, life style and thermal perception for all groups of people; however, this phenomenon has not yet been rigorously evaluated in China's hot-arid climate. The aim of this paper is to present the results of a thermal comfort survey by evaluating the influence of the hot-arid climate upon the behavioural patterns and thermal comfort responses of 160 residents in 65 traditional vernacular houses in Turfan, China, in 2011. In this survey, there were 206 sets of effective data, and the features of the traditional residential buildings and the human behaviour patterns in Turfan were described and analysed. The results showed that the diversified courtyards and shade spaces were the most obvious features of traditional houses in Turfan. People here typically spend most of their time in one of two spaces for eating, resting, and entertaining. It was found that the preferred temperature was 26.5°C. The preferred air velocity occurred at 0.62m/s. A suitable air velocity range of 0.15-1.24m/s was suggested in Turfan. Moreover, the neutral temperature of the local people was 30.1°C (tg or to). The upper limits of the 80% acceptable zone by using the direct and indirect acceptability method were 32.7 and 33.8°C, respectively. The neutral temperature and upper limit of the acceptable zone in Turfan were higher than those of the adaptive standards. Attention should be paid to the role of thermal comfort in influencing building design by using simple passive cooling strategies. The above results are believed to be potentially valuable for the design and evaluation of residential buildings located in hot-arid climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.

PubMed

Hoy, Sarah R; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A

2018-06-01

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Assessment of methane generation, oxidation, and emission in a subtropical landfill test cell.

PubMed

Moreira, João M L; Candiani, Giovano

2016-08-01

This paper presents results of a methane balance assessment in a test cell built in a region with a subtropical climate near São Paulo, Brazil. Measurements and calculations were carried out to obtain the total methane emission to the atmosphere, the methane oxidation rate in the cover, and the total methane generation rate in the test cell. The oxidation rate was obtained through a calculation scheme based on a vertical one-dimensional methane transport in the cover region. The measured maximum and mean methane fluxes to the atmosphere were 124.4 and 15.87 g m(-2) d(-1), respectively. The total methane generation rate obtained for the test cell was 0.0380 ± 0.0075 mol s(-1). The results yielded that 69 % of the emitted methane occurred through the central well and 31 % through the cover interface with the atmosphere. The evaluations of the methane oxidation fraction for localized conditions in the lateral embankment of the test cell yielded 0.36 ± 0.11, while for the whole test cell yielded 0.15 ± 0.10. These results conciliate localized and overall evaluations reported in the literature. The specific methane generation rate obtained for the municipal solid waste with an age of 410 days was 317 ± 62 mol year(-1) ton(-1). This result from the subtropical São Paulo region is lower than reported figures for tropical climates and higher than reported figures for temperate climates.

Sustainable land management (SLM) practices in drylands: how do they address desertification threats?

PubMed

Schwilch, G; Liniger, H P; Hurni, H

2014-11-01

Managing land sustainably is a huge challenge, especially under harsh climatic conditions such as those found in drylands. The socio-economic situation can also pose challenges, as dryland regions are often characterized by remoteness, marginality, low-productive farming, weak institutions, and even conflict. With threats from climate change, disputes over water, competing claims on land, and migration increasing worldwide, the demands for sustainable land management (SLM) measures will only increase in the future. Within the EU-funded DESIRE project, researchers and stakeholders jointly identified existing SLM technologies and approaches in 17 dryland study sites located in the Mediterranean and around the world. In order to evaluate and share this valuable SLM experience, local researchers documented the SLM technologies and approaches in collaboration with land users, utilizing the internationally recognized WOCAT questionnaires. This article provides an analysis of 30 technologies and 8 approaches, enabling an initial evaluation of how SLM addresses prevalent dryland threats, such as water scarcity, soil degradation, vegetation degradation and low production, climate change, resource use conflicts, and migration. Among the impacts attributed to the documented technologies, those mentioned most were diversified and enhanced production and better management of water and soil degradation, whether through water harvesting, improving soil moisture, or reducing runoff. Favorable local-scale cost-benefit relationships were mainly found when considered over the long term. Nevertheless, SLM was found to improve people's livelihoods and prevent further outmigration. More field research is needed to reinforce expert assessments of SLM impacts and provide the necessary evidence-based rationale for investing in SLM.

Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The results indicate that the projected Yp in the Korean peninsula is significantly changed comparing to the historical period and proper adaptation strategies such as optimized planting dates can considerably alleviate Yp decrease.

Climate Change Schools Project...

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinzey, Krista

2010-01-01

This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Nutrient Loading in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed in Southern Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osidele, O.; Sun, A.; Green, R.

2011-12-01

Based on results of the Second National Climate Assessment reported in 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program projects temperatures in southern Texas will increase 5 to 8° F by the end of the 21st century, with larger changes occurring under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions. Temperature increases in summer are projected to be larger than in winter. Although drier conditions are expected in the region, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall events, and associated storm surges are projected to occur more frequently because of the likely increase in intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The range of possible responses to climate change is attributable to a combination of characteristics at global, regional, and local scales. The risk of flooding and catastrophic infrastructure damage due to global climate phenomena has been incorporated into local climate adaptation plans for many low-lying areas and communities in the Gulf Coast region of southern Texas. However, because this region is dominated by irrigated agriculture and the population is projected to double by 2050, it is important to examine how climate change will affect water resources and environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential hydrologic and water quality impacts of projected climate change, land use change, and population change scenarios in the headwaters of the Arroyo Colorado. The results of this work will provide content for a web-based, collaborative geospatial decision support system being developed to support environmental management in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed. Presently, land use in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed is more than 50 percent agricultural and almost 25 percent residential with varying levels of urbanization. As a result, flow in the Arroyo Colorado is sustained primarily by discharge from municipal wastewater treatment facilities, irrigation return flows, and urban storm runoff. In this study, streamflow and nutrient loading simulations for the Arroyo Colorado Watershed are based on the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by projected future climatic conditions generated from five global circulation models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Land use change data are incorporated based on various remote sensing earth observation products including NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer datasets and Landsat images in the multiagency National Land Cover Database. Population change and urbanization are considered in terms of changes in permitted wastewater treatment discharges. The findings of this study indicate that hydrological models like SWAT are useful tools for evaluating the watershed impacts from global climate change scenarios. In developing climate adaption plans, such models should include significant interactions among various local water management systems driven by population growth and urbanization in communities, and site-specific agricultural water use.

Development of a drought forecasting model for the Asia-Pacific region using remote sensing and climate data: Focusing on Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhee, Jinyoung; Kim, Gayoung; Im, Jungho

2017-04-01

Three regions of Indonesia with different rainfall characteristics were chosen to develop drought forecast models based on machine learning. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) was selected as the target variable. The models' forecast skill was compared to the skill of long-range climate forecast models in terms of drought accuracy and regression mean absolute error (MAE). Indonesian droughts are known to be related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability despite of regional differences as well as monsoon, local sea surface temperature (SST), other large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and local factors including topography and elevation. Machine learning models are thus to enhance drought forecast skill by combining local and remote SST and remote sensing information reflecting initial drought conditions to the long-range climate forecast model results. A total of 126 machine learning models were developed for the three regions of West Java (JB), West Sumatra (SB), and Gorontalo (GO) and six long-range climate forecast models of MSC_CanCM3, MSC_CanCM4, NCEP, NASA, PNU, POAMA as well as one climatology model based on remote sensing precipitation data, and 1 to 6-month lead times. When compared the results between the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models, West Java and Gorontalo regions showed similar characteristics in terms of drought accuracy. Drought accuracy of the long-range climate forecast models were generally higher than the machine learning models with short lead times but the opposite appeared for longer lead times. For West Sumatra, however, the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models showed similar drought accuracy. The machine learning models showed smaller regression errors for all three regions especially with longer lead times. Among the three regions, the machine learning models developed for Gorontalo showed the highest drought accuracy and the lowest regression error. West Java showed higher drought accuracy compared to West Sumatra, while West Sumatra showed lower regression error compared to West Java. The lower error in West Sumatra may be because of the smaller sample size used for training and evaluation for the region. Regional differences of forecast skill are determined by the effect of ENSO and the following forecast skill of the long-range climate forecast models. While shown somewhat high in West Sumatra, relative importance of remote sensing variables was mostly low in most cases. High importance of the variables based on long-range climate forecast models indicates that the forecast skill of the machine learning models are mostly determined by the forecast skill of the climate models.

Linear and non-linear responses of vegetation and soils to glacial-interglacial climate change in a Mediterranean refuge.

PubMed

Holtvoeth, Jens; Vogel, Hendrik; Valsecchi, Verushka; Lindhorst, Katja; Schouten, Stefan; Wagner, Bernd; Wolff, George A

2017-08-14

The impact of past global climate change on local terrestrial ecosystems and their vegetation and soil organic matter (OM) pools is often non-linear and poorly constrained. To address this, we investigated the response of a temperate habitat influenced by global climate change in a key glacial refuge, Lake Ohrid (Albania, Macedonia). We applied independent geochemical and palynological proxies to a sedimentary archive from the lake over the penultimate glacial-interglacial transition (MIS 6-5) and the following interglacial (MIS 5e-c), targeting lake surface temperature as an indicator of regional climatic development and the supply of pollen and biomarkers from the vegetation and soil OM pools to determine local habitat response. Climate fluctuations strongly influenced the ecosystem, however, lake level controls the extent of terrace surfaces between the shoreline and mountain slopes and hence local vegetation, soil development and OM export to the lake sediments. There were two phases of transgressional soil erosion from terrace surfaces during lake-level rise in the MIS 6-5 transition that led to habitat loss for the locally dominant pine vegetation as the terraces drowned. Our observations confirm that catchment morphology plays a key role in providing refuges with low groundwater depth and stable soils during variable climate.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a contribution to social benefits within the GEOSS Health Area: The case of Rift Valley Fever in Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2009-12-01

Climate and environment vary on many spatio-temporal scales, including climate change, with impacts on ecosystems, vector-borne diseases and public health worldwide. This study is to enable societal benefits from a conceptual approach by mapping climatic and environmental conditions from space and understanding the mechanisms within the Health Social Benefit GEOSS area. The case study is for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal is presented. Ponds contributing to mosquitoes’ thriving, were identified from remote sensing using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Additional data on ponds’ dynamics and rainfall events (obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were combined with hydrological in-situ data. Localization of vulnerable hosts such as parked cattle (from QuickBird satellite) are also used. Dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes vexans density (one of the main RVF vectors) is based on the total rainfall amount and ponds’ dynamics. While Zones Potentially Occupied by Mosquitoes (ZPOM) are mapped, detailed risks areas, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability occur, are expressed in percentages of parks where cattle is potentially exposed to mosquitoes’ bites. This new conceptual approach, using remote-sensing techniques belonging to GEOSS, simply relies upon rainfall distribution also evaluated from space. It is meant to contribute to the implementation of integrated operational early warning system within the health application communities since climatic and environmental conditions (both natural and anthropogenic) are changing rapidly.

Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Saunders, Megan I; Possingham, Hugh P; Richardson, Anthony J

2013-01-01

Global stressors, including climate change, are a major threat to ecosystems, but they cannot be halted by local actions. Ecosystem management is thus attempting to compensate for the impacts of global stressors by reducing local stressors, such as overfishing. This approach assumes that stressors interact additively or synergistically, whereby the combined effect of two stressors is at least the sum of their isolated effects. It is not clear, however, how management should proceed for antagonistic interactions among stressors, where multiple stressors do not have an additive or greater impact. Research to date has focussed on identifying synergisms among stressors, but antagonisms may be just as common. We examined the effectiveness of management when faced with different types of interactions in two systems--seagrass and fish communities--where the global stressor was climate change but the local stressors were different. When there were synergisms, mitigating local stressors delivered greater gains, whereas when there were antagonisms, management of local stressors was ineffective or even degraded ecosystems. These results suggest that reducing a local stressor can compensate for climate change impacts if there is a synergistic interaction. Conversely, if there is an antagonistic interaction, management of local stressors will have the greatest benefits in areas of refuge from climate change. A balanced research agenda, investigating both antagonistic and synergistic interaction types, is needed to inform management priorities.

Assessing youth policies. A system of indicators for local government.

PubMed

Planas, Anna; Soler, Pere; Vilà, Montserrat

2014-08-01

In the current European climate of economic, financial and political crisis and the questioning of the welfare state, assessing public policies assume a primary and strategic relevance in clarifying the results and contributions of policy actions. In this article, we aim to present the current situation in relation to youth policy assessment so as to formulate a system of assessment indicators in the sphere of Spanish local government youth policy. A review is conducted of some of the principal contributions in the field of constructing indicators for evaluating youth policies. We have found that most of these evaluation tools exist on a national or state level and that there is a dearth of local or municipal tools. The article concludes with a concrete proposal for an assessment tool: the SIAPJove (Sistema d'Indicadors d'Avaluació per a les Polítiques Municipals de Joventut or System of Assessment Indicators for Local Government Youth Policies) (web page: http://siapjove.udg.edu/). It provides both quantitative and qualitative indicators for local youth policy managers to obtain assessment reports with relative ease in 12 possible areas for assessment within youth policy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N.

2015-12-01

Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

Managing air and water quality in the face of uncertain futures: perspectives, perceptions, reported action, and needs for climate adaptation at the local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedsworth, L. W.; Ekstrom, J.

2017-12-01

As the climate continues to shift, projections show amplified and more frequent extreme events, including coastal and inland flooding, wildfires, prolonged droughts, and heatwaves. Vital public goods, both air quality and water quality, can be critically affected by such extreme events. Climate change will make it increasingly difficult for managers to achieve public health targets for air and water quality. Successfully preparing governance structures developed to maintain and improve air and water quality may benefit from preventative strategies to avoid public health impacts and costs of climate change locally. Perceptions of climate change and its risks, actions taken so far, and perceived barriers to adaptation give insight into the needs of managers for preparing for climate change impacts. This paper compares results of two surveys that looked at local level management of air quality and water quality in California. Air quality managers consistently reported to recognize the risks of climate change on their sector, where water quality managers' perceptions varied between no concern to high concern. We explore the differences in governance, capacity influence the ill-defined responsibility and assumed roles of water and air districts in adaptation to extreme events increasing with climate change. The chain and network of managing air quality is compared with that of water quality - laying out similarities and differences. Then we compare how the survey respondents differed in terms of extreme weather-influenced threats to environmental quality. We end with a discussion of responsibility - where in the chain of managing these life-critical ecosystem services, is the need greatest for adapting to climate change and what does this mean for the other levels in the chain beyond the local management.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: a survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China.

PubMed

Wei, Junni; Hansen, Alana; Zhang, Ying; Li, Hong; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Bi, Peng

2014-10-01

A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government׳s policy-making, service provider׳s guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed. More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents׳ perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection. There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disentangling the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the distribution of endemic vascular plants in Sardinia.

PubMed

Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cañadas, Eva Maria; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2017-01-01

Due to the impelling urgency of plant conservation and the increasing availability of high resolution spatially interpolated (e.g. climate variables) and categorical data (e.g. land cover and vegetation type), many recent studies have examined relationships among plant species distributions and a diversified set of explanatory factors; nevertheless, global and regional patterns of endemic plant richness remain in many cases unexplained. One such pattern is the 294 endemic vascular plant taxa recorded on a 1 km resolution grid on the environmentally heterogeneous island of Sardinia. Sixteen predictors, including topographic, geological, climatic and anthropogenic factors, were used to model local (number of taxa inside each 1 km grid cell) Endemic Vascular Plant Richness (EVPR). Generalized Linear Models were used to evaluate how each factor affected the distribution of local EVPR. Significant relationships with local EVPR and topographic, geological, climatic and anthropogenic factors were found. In particular, elevation explained the larger fraction of variation in endemic richness but other environmental factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality and slope) and human-related factors (e.g. the Human Influence Index (HII) and the proportion of anthropogenic land uses) were, respectively, positively and negatively correlated with local EVPR. Regional EVPR (number of endemic taxa inside each 100 m elevation interval) was also measured to compare local and regional EVPR patterns along the elevation gradient. In contrast to local, regional EVPR tended to decrease with altitude partly due to the decreasing area covered along altitude. The contrasting results between local and regional patterns suggest that local richness increases as a result of increased interspecific aggregation along altitude, whereas regional richness may depend on the interaction between area and altitude. This suggests that the shape and magnitude of the species-area relationship might vary with elevation. This work provides-for the first time in Sardinia-a comprehensive analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the pattern of EVPR in the entire territory, from sea level to the highest peaks. Elevation, as well as other environmental and human-related variables, were confirmed to be influencing factors. In addition, variations of EVPR patterns at regional-to-local spatial scales inspire next investigations on the possible interaction between elevation and area in explaining patterns of plant species richness.

Evaluating the contribution of Sustainable Land Management to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and its impacts on Mediterranean ecosystem services.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vente, Joris; Zagaria, Cecilia; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Almagro, Maria; Martínez-Mena, Maria; Baartman, Jantiene; Boix-Fayos, Carolina

2015-04-01

Changing climate and land management have strong implications for soil and water resources and for many essential ecosystem services (ES), such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion control, and carbon sequestration. Large impacts of climate change are expected in the Mediterranean, characterized by a high dependence on scarce soil and water resources. On the other hand, well designed Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies can reduce the risks associated with climate change, but their design requires knowledge of their multiple effects on ecosystem services under present and future climate scenarios and of possible tradeoffs. Moreover, strategies are only viable if suited to local environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions, so stakeholder engagement is crucial during their selection, evaluation and implementation. We present preliminary results of a catchment wide assessment of the expected impacts of climate change on water availability in the Segura basin (18800 km2) southeastern Spain. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of past land use changes and the benefits of catchment wide implementation of SLM practices to protect soil and water resources, prevent sedimentation of reservoirs and increase carbon sequestration in soil and vegetation. We used the InVEST modeling framework to simulate the water availability and sediment export under different climate, land use and land management scenarios, and quantified carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. Realistic scenarios of implementation of SLM practices were prepared based on an extensive process of stakeholder engagement and using latest climate change predictions from Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios. Results indicate a strong decrease in water availability in the Segura catchment under expected climate change, with average reductions of upto 60% and large spatial variability. Land use changes (1990 - 2006) resulted in a slight increase in water yield (3.3%), a decrease in sediment export (21%) and organic carbon stock (1.7%). Headwaters showed on average a decrease in water yield, while downstream water yield increased, while changes in carbon stocks showed the opposite trend. Under present day land use, headwaters show highest carbon stocks and generally provide most ES per hectare. Yet, rainfed arable land located mainly in downstream parts of the catchment accounts for about 20% of the total carbon stock. Implementation of reduced tillage in combination with green manure results in an increase of the total carbon stock of the Segura catchment by about 3.3%, while sediment export reduces by 28% and water yield increases by 2.15% with an adoption rate of 10%. Under higher adoption levels decreasing water yield was found possibly indicating decreased water stress for crops. Overall, reduced tillage-green manure was found to lead to an increase in ES provision with important spatial variability and strongly affected by local environmental conditions. These results allow us to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of land use versus land management changes on protection of ecosystem services, tradeoffs and disparities between sub-catchments of the Segura River. This study's value lies in providing stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest catchment wide ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts.

The use of phenological data to calculate chilling units in Olea europaea L. in relation to the onset of reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlandi, F.; Fornaciari, M.; Romano, B.

2002-02-01

The aim of this study was to develop a practical method to evaluate the effective relationship between the amount of winter chilling and the response expressed as the spring reproductive re-starting dates in the olive ( Olea europaea L.). Two olive cultivars growing in a special olive orchard in Umbria (central Italy) were studied over a 3-year period (1998-2000): the cultivar Ascolana, typical of central Italy, and the cultivar Giarraffa, typical of southern Italy. The spring reproductive re-starts were assessed using data from detailed phenological observations made on 60 trees of each cultivar in an effort to establish the exact date of reproductive bud swelling. The chilling phenomenon was evaluated by using 341 functions derived from a formula developed by researchers at Utah State University to calculate chilling units. The mathematical functions are defined, and show the very close relationship between the amount of winter chilling and the spring reproductive response in the two cultivars in the orchard studied. The results can be used to define the relationship between local climate and plant development, and the mathematical approach can be used to draw maps that can show the suitability of different cultivars on the basis of local climatic conditions.

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Lombard, Claudia D; Valiulis, Jennifer M; Robinson, Nathan J; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-17

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21(st) century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

PubMed Central

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-01-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100. PMID:26572897

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

Experiences with collaborative climate impacts assessments for regional governments in southwestern British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

2016-12-01

Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.

Below-ground biotic interactions moderated the postglacial range dynamics of trees.

PubMed

Pither, Jason; Pickles, Brian J; Simard, Suzanne W; Ordonez, Alejandro; Williams, John W

2018-05-17

Tree range shifts during geohistorical global change events provide a useful real-world model for how future changes in forest biomes may proceed. In North America, during the last deglaciation, the distributions of tree taxa varied significantly as regards the rate and direction of their responses for reasons that remain unclear. Local-scale processes such as establishment, growth, and resilience to environmental stress ultimately influence range dynamics. Despite the fact that interactions between trees and soil biota are known to influence local-scale processes profoundly, evidence linking below-ground interactions to distribution dynamics remains scarce. We evaluated climate velocity and plant traits related to dispersal, environmental tolerance and below-ground symbioses, as potential predictors of the geohistorical rates of expansion and contraction of the core distributions of tree genera between 16 and 7 ka bp. The receptivity of host genera towards ectomycorrhizal fungi was strongly supported as a positive predictor of poleward rates of distribution expansion, and seed mass was supported as a negative predictor. Climate velocity gained support as a positive predictor of rates of distribution contraction, but not expansion. Our findings indicate that understanding how tree distributions, and thus forest ecosystems, respond to climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of traits, biotic interactions and abiotic forcing. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

A data centred method to estimate and map changes in the full distribution of daily surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Characterizing how our climate is changing includes local information which can inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily surface temperature. Here we focus on these local changes and on a model independent method to transform daily observations into patterns of local climate change. Our method [1] is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of the distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. For temperature, changes in the distribution itself can yield robust results [2]. We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations [3]. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data [4] timeseries of local daily surface temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. [1] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, On estimating long term local climate trends, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 (2013) [2] Stainforth, D. A. S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, ERL 8, 034031 (2013) [3] Chapman, S. C., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL 10, 094018 (2015) [4] Haylock M. R. et al ., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, (2008)

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

The Arctic Climate Modeling Program: K-12 Geoscience Professional Development for Rural Educators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertram, K. B.

2009-12-01

Helping teachers and students connect with scientists is the heart of the Arctic Climate Modeling Program (ACMP), funded from 2005-09 by the National Science Foundation’s Innovative Technology Experience for Students and Teachers. ACMP offered progressive yearlong science, technology and math (STM) professional development that prepared teachers to train youth in workforce technologies used in Arctic research. ACMP was created for the Bering Strait School District, a geographically isolated area with low standardized test scores, high dropout rates, and poverty. Scientists from around the globe have converged in this region and other areas of the Arctic to observe and measure changes in climate that are significant, accelerating, and unlike any in recorded history. Climate literacy (the ability to understand Earth system science and to make scientifically informed decisions about climate changes) has become essential for this population. Program resources were designed in collaboration with scientists to mimic the processes used to study Arctic climate. Because the Bering Strait School District serves a 98 percent Alaska Native student population, ACMP focused on best practices shown to increase the success of minority students. Significant research indicates that Alaska Native students succeed academically at higher rates when instruction addresses topics of local interest, links education to the students’ physical and cultural environment, uses local knowledge and culture in the curriculum, and incorporates hands-on, inquiry-based lessons in the classroom. A seven-partner consortium of research institutes and Alaska Native corporations created ACMP to help teachers understand their role in nurturing STM talent and motivating students to explore geoscience careers. Research underscores the importance of increasing school emphasis in content areas, such as climate, that facilitate global awareness and civic responsibility, and that foster critical thinking and other 21st century learning skills. Climate studies offer insight into a broad cross-section of STM careers, and provide a natural forum for helping students develop problem-solving skills inherent in STM research. Climate research involves sophisticated technology, a complex set of 21st century skills, and the ability to collaborate with an international community. Professional development that trains teachers in these skills is essential considering that recent research shows 90 percent of U.S. secondary students are taught Earth and physical science by a teacher lacking STM certification. ACMP summative evaluation posed three questions: 1) Did ACMP training meet teachers’ needs? 2) Did ACMP involvement result in more effective teachers and teaching? 3) Did participation in ACMP result in higher Bering Strait School District student achievement? Teachers and students were evaluated using a mixed method design incorporating descriptive components with a before/after design to measure what teachers and students learned. Community members, 165 teachers, and 1,738 individual students participated in the program, which was successful in its goals overall.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

Advantages and applicability of commonly used homogenisation methods for climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Sara; Caineta, Júlio; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar; Costa, Ana Cristina

2014-05-01

Homogenisation of climate data is a very relevant subject since these data are required as an input in a wide range of studies, such as atmospheric modelling, weather forecasting, climate change monitoring, or hydrological and environmental projects. Often, climate data series include non-natural irregularities which have to be detected and removed prior to their use, otherwise it would generate biased and erroneous results. Relocation of weather stations or changes in the measuring instruments are amongst the most relevant causes for these inhomogeneities. Depending on the climate variable, its temporal resolution and spatial continuity, homogenisation methods can be more or less effective. For example, due to its natural variability, precipitation is identified as a very challenging variable to be homogenised. During the last two decades, numerous methods have been proposed to homogenise climate data. In order to compare, evaluate and develop those methods, the European project COST Action ES0601, Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), was released in 2008. Existing homogenisation methods were improved based on the benchmark exercise issued by this project. A recent approach based on Direct Sequential Simulation (DSS), not yet evaluated by the benchmark exercise, is also presented as an innovative methodology for homogenising climate data series. DSS already proved to be a successful geostatistical method in environmental and hydrological studies, and it provides promising results for the homogenisation of climate data. Since DSS is a geostatistical stochastic approach, it accounts for the joint spatial and temporal dependence between observations, as well as the relative importance of stations both in terms of distance and correlation. This work presents a chronological review of the most commonly used homogenisation methods for climate data and available software packages. A short description and classification is provided for each method. Their advantages and applicability are discussed based on literature review and on the results of the HOME project. Acknowledgements: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of "Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia" (FCT), Portugal, through the research project PTDC/GEO-MET/4026/2012 ("GSIMCLI - Geostatistical simulation with local distributions for the homogenization and interpolation of climate data").

Overcoming scepticism: Interacting influences of geographical location on perceived climate change adaptation measures to water resources in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Bardaji, Isabel; Iglesias, Pedro; Granados, Alfredo

2016-04-01

Though many climate adaptation efforts attempt to be defined with the participation of local communities, these strategies may be ineffective because among citizens affected equally, a local risk perception rather than scientific understanding largely drives adaptation choices. Further, the geographical location may polarize climate risk perceptions, making some adaptation efforts ineffective among sceptics. This study examines how the local degradation of the environment and water resources relates to adaption choices and in turn, climate change risk perception among a range of citizens in the Tagus basin, Spain (n = 300). We find respondents of less degraded areas have individualistic responses, and are significantly less likely to accept adaptation strategies than respondents in water stressed communities. The interaction between climate knowledge and adaptation choices is positively related to acceptance of adaptation choices in both groups, and had a stronger positive relationship among individualists. There is no statistical difference in acceptance of adaptation between individualists and communitarians at high levels of knowledge (top decile). Thus, education efforts specific to climate change may counteract divisions based geographical location and environmental stress.

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Using simple chaotic models to interpret climate under climate change: Implications for probabilistic climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daron, Joseph

2010-05-01

Exploring the reliability of model based projections is an important pre-cursor to evaluating their societal relevance. In order to better inform decisions concerning adaptation (and mitigation) to climate change, we must investigate whether or not our models are capable of replicating the dynamic nature of the climate system. Whilst uncertainty is inherent within climate prediction, establishing and communicating what is plausible as opposed to what is likely is the first step to ensuring that climate sensitive systems are robust to climate change. Climate prediction centers are moving towards probabilistic projections of climate change at regional and local scales (Murphy et al., 2009). It is therefore important to understand what a probabilistic forecast means for a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system that is subject to changing forcings. It is in this context that we present the results of experiments using simple models that can be considered analogous to the more complex climate system, namely the Lorenz 1963 and Lorenz 1984 models (Lorenz, 1963; Lorenz, 1984). Whilst the search for a low-dimensional climate attractor remains illusive (Fraedrich, 1986; Sahay and Sreenivasan, 1996) the characterization of the climate system in such terms can be useful for conceptual and computational simplicity. Recognising that a change in climate is manifest in a change in the distribution of a particular climate variable (Stainforth et al., 2007), we first establish the equilibrium distributions of the Lorenz systems for certain parameter settings. Allowing the parameters to vary in time, we investigate the dependency of such distributions to initial conditions and discuss the implications for climate prediction. We argue that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction. References: Fraedrich, K. Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci, 43, 419-432, 1986. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963. Lorenz, E. N. Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110, 1984. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, G. J. Jenkins, B. B. B. Booth, C. C. Brown, R. T. Clark, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, E. J. Kendon, R. A. Betts, S. J. Brown, P. Boorman, T. P. Howard, K. A. Humphrey, M. P. McCarthy, R. E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R. A. Wood. Uk climate projections science report: Climate change projections. 2009. Sahay, A. and K. R. Sreenivasan. The search for a low-dimensional characterization of a local climate system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 354, 1715-1750, 1996. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.

Planning for Production of Freshwater Fish Fry in a Variable Climate in Northern Thailand.

PubMed

Uppanunchai, Anuwat; Apirumanekul, Chusit; Lebel, Louis

2015-10-01

Provision of adequate numbers of quality fish fry is often a key constraint on aquaculture development. The management of climate-related risks in hatchery and nursery management operations has not received much attention, but is likely to be a key element of successful adaptation to climate change in the aquaculture sector. This study explored the sensitivities and vulnerability of freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries across Northern Thailand to climate variability and evaluated the robustness of the proposed adaptation measures. This study found that hatcheries have to consider several factors when planning production, including: taking into account farmer demand; production capacity of the hatchery; availability of water resources; local climate and other area factors; and, individual species requirements. Nile tilapia is the most commonly cultured species of freshwater fish. Most fry production is done in the wet season, as cold spells and drought conditions disrupt hatchery production and reduce fish farm demand in the dry season. In the wet season, some hatcheries are impacted by floods. Using a set of scenarios to capture major uncertainties and variability in climate, this study suggests a couple of strategies that should help make hatchery operations more climate change resilient, in particular: improving hatchery operations and management to deal better with risks under current climate variability; improving monitoring and information systems so that emerging climate-related risks are known sooner and understood better; and, research and development on alternative species, breeding programs, improving water management and other features of hatchery operations.

Activity response to climate seasonality in species with fossorial habits: a niche modeling approach using the lowland burrowing treefrog (Smilisca fodiens).

PubMed

Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Sigala-Rodríguez, J Jesús

2013-01-01

The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival.

Colorado River Vegetation, and Climate: Five Decades of Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in the Grand Canyon in Response to River Regulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralston, B. E.; Sankey, J. B.

2013-12-01

Recent analysis of remotely sensed imagery of 400 km of the Colorado River confirms a net increase in vegetated area has occurred since the completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. The rates and magnitude of vegetation change appear to be river stage-dependent. Riparian vegetation expansion on geomorphic surfaces at lower elevations relative to the river was greater for decades with lower peak and average discharges. Vegetation change at higher elevation relative to the river indicate that increases and decreases in vegetated area reflect regional precipitation patterns, and respectively coincide with regionally significant wet and dry periods that include the current early 21st century drought. The objective of this work was to examine the temporal persistence, and changes, in the spatial distribution of riparian vegetation relative to geomorphic characteristics of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, dam and reservoir management, and regional climate over the 5-decade period from the mid-1960s to present. We employed archived riparian vegetation classifications that used aerial imagery from 1965, 1973, 1984, 1992, 2002, and 2009 coupled with flow regime data that is primarily related to operations of Glen Canyon Dam, field-measured rating relations, predictions of rating relations based on 1-D modeling, and detailed, geomorphic field mapping. Documentation of the effects of river regulation on riparian habitats in the SW USA has traditionally been limited to either small segments of river channels (e.g., 0.1-10km), or focused on specific plant species. The smaller geographic scale approach evaluates local hydrology, river channel changes, and serial recruitment events of riparian plants. The species-specific plant response informs larger scale patterns of riparian plant distributions across the landscape, but is less sensitive to differences of climate and hydrology among rivers. Our study is unique in that it employs datasets that allow both large-scale change detection and local-scale analysis to address questions about transferability of local-scale plant response to the larger river system. Furthermore, we assess the independent and interacting effects of river regulation and regional climate on plant response. Our results show promise for improved understanding of the interplay of river regulation and climate effects for riparian vegetation at a local and river-wide scale in this highly modified river system.

An Automated Method to Identify Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehall, K. D.; Jenkins, G. S.; Mattmann, C. A.; Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A. F.; Ramirez, P.; Whittell, J.; Zimdars, P. A.

2012-12-01

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) are large (2 - 3 x 105 km2) nocturnal convectively-driven weather systems that are generally associated with high precipitation events in short durations (less than 12hrs) in various locations through out the tropics and midlatitudes (Maddox 1980). These systems are particularly important for climate in the West Sahel region, where the precipitation associated with them is a principal component of the rainfall season (Laing and Fritsch 1993). These systems occur on weather timescales and are historically identified from weather data analysis via manual and more recently automated processes (Miller and Fritsch 1991, Nesbett 2006, Balmey and Reason 2012). The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an open source tool designed for easy evaluation of climate and Earth system data through access to standardized datasets, and intrinsic tools that perform common analysis and visualization tasks (Hart et al. 2011). The RCMES toolkit also provides the flexibility of user-defined subroutines for further metrics, visualization and even dataset manipulation. The purpose of this study is to present a methodology for identifying MCCs in observation datasets using the RCMES framework. TRMM 3 hourly datasets will be used to demonstrate the methodology for 2005 boreal summer. This method promotes the use of open source software for scientific data systems to address a concern to multiple stakeholders in the earth sciences. A historical MCC dataset provides a platform with regards to further studies of the variability of frequency on various timescales of MCCs that is important for many including climate scientists, meteorologists, water resource managers, and agriculturalists. The methodology of using RCMES for searching and clipping datasets will engender a new realm of studies as users of the system will no longer be restricted to solely using the datasets as they reside in their own local systems; instead will be afforded rapid, effective, and transparent access, processing and visualization of the wealth of remote sensing datasets and climate model outputs available.

Evaluation and comparison of different RCMs simulations of the Mediterranean climate: a view on the impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, Gérémy; Vrac, Mathieu; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Somot, Samuel; Li, Laurent

2015-04-01

As regularly stated by numerous authors, the Mediterranean climate is considered as one major climate 'hot spot'. At least, three reasons may explain this statement. First, this region is known for being regularly affected by extreme hydro-meteorological events (heavy precipitation and flash-floods during the autumn season; droughts and heat waves during spring and summer). Second, the vulnerability of populations in regard of these extreme events is expected to increase during the XXIst century (at least due to the projected population growth in this region). At last, Global Circulation Models project that this regional climate will be highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and thus to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In order to propose adaptation strategies, the robust estimation of the future evolution of the Mediterranean climate and the associated extreme hydro-meteorological events (in terms of intensity/frequency) is of great relevance. However, these projections are characterized by large uncertainties. Many components of the simulation chain can explain these large uncertainties : (i) uncertainties concerning the emission scenario; (ii) climate model simulations suffer of parametrization errors and uncertainties concerning the initial state of the climate; and (iii) the additional uncertainties given by the (dynamical or statistical) downscaling techniques and the impact model. Narrowing (as fine as possible) these uncertainties is a major challenge of the actual climate research. One way for that is to reduce the uncertainties associated with each component. In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of : (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean Sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with larger resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the MED-CORDEX experiment. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. A large set of scores was developed and applied in order to evaluate the performances of these different RCMs simulations. These scores were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily air temperature and the dry spell lengths). A particular attention was given to the RCM capability to reproduce the seasonal and spatial pattern of extreme statistics. Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea and that the model resolution has a slight impact on the scores obtained. Globally, the main differences between the RCM simulations come from the RCM used. Keywords: Mediterranean climate, extreme hydro-meteorological events, RCM simulations, evaluation of climate simulations

Climate Change Adaptation Support for Transportation Practitioners: 2013 Volpe Center Innovation Challenge Project.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-30

The nature of the U.S. transportation system requires that actions to adapt to climate change impacts occur primarily at the State and local levels. Federal agencies support State, regional, and local agencies and they work hard to provide frameworks...

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam.

PubMed

Christoplos, Ian; Ngoan, Le Duc; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

2017-07-01

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate- and disaster-related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high-risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantua, N.; Snover, A.

2006-12-01

Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.

Land-based approach to evaluate sustainable land management and adaptive capacity of ecosystems/lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

2015-04-01

A number of new concepts and paradigms appeared during last decades, such as sustainable land management (SLM), climate change (CC) adaptation, environmental services, ecosystem health, and others. All of these initiatives still not having the common scientific platform although some agreements in terminology were reached, schemes of links and feedback loops created, and some models developed. Nevertheless, in spite of all these scientific achievements, the land related issues are still not in the focus of CC adaptation and mitigation. The last did not grow much beyond the "greenhouse gases" (GHG) concept, which makes land degradation as the "forgotten side of climate change" The possible decision to integrate concepts of climate and desertification/land degradation could be consideration of the "GHG" approach providing global solution, and "land" approach providing local solution covering other "locally manifesting" issues of global importance (biodiversity conservation, food security, disasters and risks, etc.) to serve as a central concept among those. SLM concept is a land-based approach, which includes the concepts of both ecosystem-based approach (EbA) and community-based approach (CbA). SLM can serve as in integral CC adaptation strategy, being based on the statement "the more healthy and resilient the system is, the less vulnerable and more adaptive it will be to any external changes and forces, including climate" The biggest scientific issue is the methods to evaluate the SLM and results of the SLM investments. We suggest using the approach based on the understanding of the balance or equilibrium of the land and nature components as the major sign of the sustainable system. Prom this point of view it is easier to understand the state of the ecosystem stress, size of the "health", range of adaptive capacity, drivers of degradation and SLM nature, as well as the extended land use, and the concept of environmental land management as the improved SLM approach. A number of case studies justify the schemes developed to explain this approach.

Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Stortini, Christine H; Chabot, Denis; Shackell, Nancy L

2017-06-01

We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What's so local about global climate change? Testing social theories of environmental degradation to quantify the demographic, economic, and governmental factors associated with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in U.S. metropolitan areas and counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribbia, John Luke

This research investigates the consequence of a crucial and not yet fully explored problem: the reluctance of the United States to sign and ratify international agreements, like Kyoto, that aim to mitigate climate change and its underlying social and ecological impacts. This unwillingness has inspired local governments, mayors, metropolitan area governance consortia, state governments, and governors to take on the climate challenge without the directive of the federal government. Local areas of the U.S. are experiencing climate-change-related impacts such as receding beach lines due to sea level rise and intense storms, fresh water shortages, and extreme weather events. As a result, researchers have begun to explore the human dimensions of climate change through an inquiry in: among many other topics, the vulnerability of local areas to the impacts of climate change and the forces shaping local areas' contribution to climate change. This study addresses the latter issue using the STIRPAT framework - a reformulated version of the I=(P)(A)(T) formulation that relates environmental impacts (I) to population growth (P), affluence (A), and technology (T). I address three questions that have thus far been poorly answered in prior research: "across the U.S., do local areas differ in the extent of their contribution to climate change?", "what are the causes of variation in energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across local areas?" and "which social theories best explain the causes of variation in energy use and CO2 emissions across local areas?" To make strides in answering these questions and contribute to the understanding of local level drivers of energy consumption and emissions, this research analyzes the causes of variation in: energy use and CO2 emissions in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas in chapter 4, the change in energy consumption between 2000 and 2005 for these metropolitan areas in chapter 5, and CO2 emissions in all U.S. counties in chapter 6. The STIRPAT method is used to test four social theories of environmental degradation -- the treadmill of production, ecological modernization, urban ecological transitions, and human ecology theories -- by quantifying variables associated with energy use and CO2 emissions drawn from each theory. The specific findings demonstrate that various demographic, economic, and governmental factors are related strongly to metropolitan area energy consumption and county-level CO2 emissions. The human ecology, treadmill of production, and urban ecological transitions theories are important to explaining how and why climate-related impacts differ for a wide variety of local areas in the United States. Related to human ecology and treadmill of production theory, environmental degradation is highest in metropolitan areas and counties with large populations and large economies that have various mechanisms in place to facilitate economic growth. By contrast, some U.S. counties are beginning to remedy their impact on the environment by applying economic and governmental resources toward the mitigation of CO2 emissions, which provides evidence of support for urban ecological transitions theory. However, because climate change is a complex cross-scale global environmental problem and the results in this dissertation confirm that this problem is locally driven by similar population and economic factors also affecting the climate at larger spatial scales, mitigation efforts to reduce energy use and emissions at the local level will be fruitless without a well-coordinated, cross-scale (local to global) ideological shift that puts less priority on economic goals and more on environmental sustainability. These results, and the methodological and theoretical framework applied in this dissertation, thus provide a useful platform for the successful application of future research that specifically addresses mitigation strategies to reduce local-level environmental impacts. This dissertation research, therefore, contributes to the environmental sociology, general demography, and environmental demography disciplines by exploring ways in which population-environment relationships work at the local scale.

The support of local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through the cultivation of giant reed (Arundo donax sp.). An Italian case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Impagliazzo, Adriana; Fiorentino, Nunzio; Langella, Giuliano; Mori, Mauro; Fagnano, Massimo

2017-04-01

In literature on climate change, the bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gases emission and increase the soil carbon stock. Nevertheless, in several countries they are considered in competition with food crops, representing a problem for facing the current and future "Food Security" issue related to climate change and population increase. At same time, in order to sustain local farming communities and crop production, mitigation actions at farm scale are identified to face climate change. However, in some cases the specific actions required by the pedo-climatic conditions, are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this contest, the energy crops with high environmental adaptability and high productive performances, as the giant reed (Arundo donax spp.), cultivated in the areas not suitable for food crop (marginal areas) may represent an opportunity to increase the farmers' incomes, through the direct sale of above ground biomass (AGB) (as raw material for energy or green chemistry) or by means of the obtained biofuel or biogas. Moreover, the bioenergy crops, with low-input cropping systems (i.e. without irrigation and fertilized with compost from organic residues) are considered the most efficient crops for Greenhouse Gases reduction. In fact, they have a direct effect on processes affecting the CC at global scale: i) preserving and improving the soil carbon stock, ii) reducing the soil tillage and preserving the soil erosion, iii) allowing the conservation of fossil fuel resources with a reduction of CO2 emission in the atmosphere. Finally, their high environmental adaptability allows a riparian vegetation use (in the soils near water drains or rivers) with an important effect on the interception of nutrients as nitrogen and phosphorus that, if leached, have a high environmental impact on watercourses (e.g. eutrophication). Thus the correct use of this crops allows to respond to 3 of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of United Nations: (i) SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, (ii) SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy and (iii) SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. Therefore, in order to support the resilience of local farming communities and food production, a mitigation action to face climate change can be bases on the assessment of the possible increase of farmers' incomes derived by the cultivation of bioenergy crops in their marginal areas. On these premises, we have evaluated the giant reed responses in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and evaluated the expected farmers' income in a near future (2021-2050) through a simulation model application. In order to realize this applicative and pro-active approach to farmer support, the normalized water productivity index of giant reed has been determined, through the use of agro-hydrological model SWAP, calibrated and validated on two years of long term field experiment on giant reed, realized within of study area. Keywords: Climate Change; SWAP; giant reed;water productivity (WP); Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.