Science.gov

Sample records for evaluating value-at-risk models

  1. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  2. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  3. Quantile uncertainty and value-at-risk model risk.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María

    2012-08-01

    This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Value-at-risk prediction using context modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denecker, K.; van Assche, S.; Crombez, J.; Vander Vennet, R.; Lemahieu, I.

    2001-04-01

    In financial market risk measurement, Value-at-Risk (VaR) techniques have proven to be a very useful and popular tool. Unfortunately, most VaR estimation models suffer from major drawbacks: the lognormal (Gaussian) modeling of the returns does not take into account the observed fat tail distribution and the non-stationarity of the financial instruments severely limits the efficiency of the VaR predictions. In this paper, we present a new approach to VaR estimation which is based on ideas from the field of information theory and lossless data compression. More specifically, the technique of context modeling is applied to estimate the VaR by conditioning the probability density function on the present context. Tree-structured vector quantization is applied to partition the multi-dimensional state space of both macroeconomic and microeconomic priors into an increasing but limited number of context classes. Each class can be interpreted as a state of aggregation with its own statistical and dynamic behavior, or as a random walk with its own drift and step size. Results on the US S&P500 index, obtained using several evaluation methods, show the strong potential of this approach and prove that it can be applied successfully for, amongst other useful applications, VaR and volatility prediction. The October 1997 crash is indicated in time.

  5. Estimation of Value-at-Risk for Energy Commodities via CAViaR Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiliang, Zhao; Xi, Zhu

    This paper uses the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk model (CAViaR) proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) to evaluate the value-at-risk for daily spot prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil covering the period May 21th, 1987 to Novermber 18th, 2008. Then the accuracy of the estimates of CAViaR model, Normal-GARCH, and GED-GARCH was compared. The results show that all the methods do good job for the low confidence level (95%), and GED-GARCH is the best for spot WTI price, Normal-GARCH and Adaptive-CAViaR are the best for spot Brent price. However, for the high confidence level (99%), Normal-GARCH do a good job for spot WTI, GED-GARCH and four kind of CAViaR specifications do well for spot Brent price. Normal-GARCH does badly for spot Brent price. The result seems suggest that CAViaR do well as well as GED-GARCH since CAViaR directly model the quantile autoregression, but it does not outperform GED-GARCH although it does outperform Normal-GARCH.

  6. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  7. Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang

    2016-01-01

    This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive model and introduces a spatiotemporal model for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the absolute values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimated by different models. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal model performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three models introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive model.

  8. Value at risk estimation using independent component analysis-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ICA-GARCH) models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Edmond H C; Yu, Philip L H; Li, W K

    2006-10-01

    We suggest using independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose multivariate time series into statistically independent time series. Then, we propose to use ICA-GARCH models which are computationally efficient to estimate the multivariate volatilities. The experimental results show that the ICA-GARCH models are more effective than existing methods, including DCC, PCA-GARCH, and EWMA. We also apply the proposed models to compute value at risk (VaR) for risk management applications. The backtesting and the out-of-sample tests validate the performance of ICA-GARCH models for value at risk estimation.

  9. The value-at-risk evaluation of Brent's crude oil market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheong, Chin Wen; Isa, Zaidi; Ying, Khor Chia; Lai, Ng Sew

    2014-06-01

    This study investigates the market risk of the Brent's crude oil market. First the long memory time-varying volatility is modelled under the Chung's specification. Second, for model adequacy evaluations on the heavy-tailed, long memory and endogenously estimated power transformation models indicated superior performance in out-of-sample forecasts. Lastly, these findings are further applied in the long and short trading positions of market risk evaluations of the Brent's market.

  10. Comparison of new conditional value-at-risk-based management models for optimal allocation of uncertain water supplies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamout, Ghina M.; Hatfield, Kirk; Romeijn, H. Edwin

    2007-07-01

    The paper studies the effect of incorporating the conditional value-at-risk (CVaRα) in analyzing a water allocation problem versus using the frequently used expected value, two-stage modeling, scenario analysis, and linear optimization tools. Five models are developed to examine water resource allocation when available supplies are uncertain: (1) a deterministic expected value model, (2) a scenario analysis model, (3) a two-stage stochastic model with recourse, (4) a CVaRα objective function model, and (5) a CVaRα constraint model. The models are applied over a region of east central Florida. Results show the deterministic expected value model underestimates system costs and water shortage. Furthermore, the expected value model produces identical cost estimates for different standard deviations distributions of water supplies with identical mean. From the scenario analysis model it is again demonstrated that the expected value of results taken from many scenarios underestimates costs and water shortages. Using a two-stage stochastic mixed integer formulation with recourse permits an improved representation of uncertainties and real-life decision making which in turn predicts higher costs. The inclusion of CVaRα objective function in the latter provides for the optimization and control of high-risk events. Minimizing CVaRα does not, however, permit control of lower-risk events. Constraining CVaRα while minimizing cost, on the other hand, allows for the control of high-risk events while minimizing the costs of all events. Results show CVaRα exhibits continuous and consistent behavior with respect to the confidence level α, when compared to value-at-risk (VaRα).

  11. Two-stage Stochastic Unit Commitment Model including Non-generation Resources with Conditional Value-at-Risk Constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng, Qipeng P; Huang, Yuping; Wang, Jianhui

    2014-11-02

    tThis paper presents a two-stage stochastic unit commitment (UC) model, which integrates non-generation resources such as demand response (DR) and energy storage (ES) while including riskconstraints to balance between cost and system reliability due to the fluctuation of variable genera-tion such as wind and solar power. This paper uses conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measures to modelrisks associated with the decisions in a stochastic environment. In contrast to chance-constrained modelsrequiring extra binary variables, risk constraints based on CVaR only involve linear constraints and con-tinuous variables, making it more computationally attractive. The proposed models with risk constraintsare able to avoid over-conservative solutions but still ensure system reliability represented by loss ofloads. Then numerical experiments are conducted to study the effects of non-generation resources ongenerator schedules and the difference of total expected generation costs with risk consideration. Sen-sitivity analysis based on reliability parameters is also performed to test the decision preferences ofconfidence levels and load-shedding loss allowances on generation cost reduction.

  12. On The Value at Risk Using Bayesian Mixture Laplace Autoregressive Approach for Modelling the Islamic Stock Risk Investment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miftahurrohmah, Brina; Iriawan, Nur; Fithriasari, Kartika

    2017-06-01

    Stocks are known as the financial instruments traded in the capital market which have a high level of risk. Their risks are indicated by their uncertainty of their return which have to be accepted by investors in the future. The higher the risk to be faced, the higher the return would be gained. Therefore, the measurements need to be made against the risk. Value at Risk (VaR) as the most popular risk measurement method, is frequently ignore when the pattern of return is not uni-modal Normal. The calculation of the risks using VaR method with the Normal Mixture Autoregressive (MNAR) approach has been considered. This paper proposes VaR method couple with the Mixture Laplace Autoregressive (MLAR) that would be implemented for analysing the first three biggest capitalization Islamic stock return in JII, namely PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLMK), and PT. Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR). Parameter estimation is performed by employing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches.

  13. A multi-objective optimization model with conditional value-at-risk constraints for water allocation equality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhineng; Wei, Changting; Yao, Liming; Li, Ling; Li, Chaozhi

    2016-11-01

    Water scarcity is a global problem which causes economic and political conflicts as well as degradation of ecosystems. Moreover, the uncertainty caused by extreme weather increases the risk of economic inefficiency, an essential consideration for water users. In this study, a multi-objective model involving water allocation equality and economic efficiency risk control is developed to help water managers mitigate these problems. Gini coefficient is introduced to optimize water allocation equality in water use sectors (agricultural, domestic, and industrial sectors), and CVaR is integrated into the model constraints to control the economic efficiency loss risk corresponding to variations in water availability. The case study demonstrates the practicability and rationality of the developed model, allowing the river basin authority to determine water allocation strategies for a single river basin.

  14. Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk.

    PubMed

    Bird, David Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; Koeberl, Judith; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Prettenthaler, Franz; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

    2016-02-01

    In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay loams, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay loams. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands; a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams; and a 12% increase in yields on sandy loams. For tomatoes sown in March; sandy clay loams will fail 81% of the time; on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy loams, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Exchangeability, extreme returns and Value-at-Risk forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chun-Kai; North, Delia; Zewotir, Temesgen

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to extreme value modelling for the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR). In particular, the block maxima and the peaks-over-threshold methods are generalised to exchangeable random sequences. This caters for the dependencies, such as serial autocorrelation, of financial returns observed empirically. In addition, this approach allows for parameter variations within each VaR estimation window. Empirical prior distributions of the extreme value parameters are attained by using resampling procedures. We compare the results of our VaR forecasts to that of the unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach and the conditional GARCH-EVT model for robust conclusions.

  16. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  17. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  18. Empirical application of normal mixture GARCH and value-at-risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2014-06-01

    Normal mixture (NM) GARCH model can capture time variation in both conditional skewness and kurtosis. In this paper, we present the general framework of Normal mixture GARCH (1,1). An empirical application is presented using Malaysia weekly stock market returns. This paper provides evidence that, for modeling stock market returns, two-component Normal mixture GARCH (1,1) model perform better than Normal, symmetric and skewed Student's t-GARCH models. This model can quantify the volatility corresponding to stable and crash market circumstances. We also consider Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation for Normal mixture GARCH model.

  19. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  20. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  1. Solving portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots based on conditional-value-at-risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.

    2017-01-01

    Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.

  2. Public value at risk from Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae spread in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Drake, Ben; Jones, Glyn

    2017-04-15

    Heritage gardens, heathland and woodland are increasingly under threat from the non-native tree and plant diseases Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. However, there exist only limited literature that estimates the public non-market value that may be lost from a continued spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae into these habitats. This paper therefore uses a contingent valuation survey to assess the non-extractive public use and non-use values at risk from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases in England and Wales. Results estimate that £1.446bn of public value is at risk in England and Wales per year from an uncontrolled spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. The greatest public value at risk, of £578  m/year, is from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases to heritage gardens, while the lowest public value at risk, of £386  m/year, is from disease spread to heathland. The findings of this paper should help policymakers make informed decisions as to the public resources to dedicate towards Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae control in England and Wales. In this regard, the current control programme to contain these diseases appears cost-effective in light of the public value at risk estimates produced by this paper. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Kaijian; Wang, Lijun; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-08-01

    In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market.

  4. Measuring daily Value-at-Risk of SSEC index: A new approach based on multifractal analysis and extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yu; Chen, Wang; Lin, Yu

    2013-05-01

    Recent studies in the econophysics literature reveal that price variability has fractal and multifractal characteristics not only in developed financial markets, but also in emerging markets. Taking high-frequency intraday quotes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Component (SSEC) Index as example, this paper proposes a new method to measure daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) by combining the newly introduced multifractal volatility (MFV) model and the extreme value theory (EVT) method. Two VaR backtesting techniques are then employed to compare the performance of the model with that of a group of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The empirical results show the multifractal nature of price volatility in Chinese stock market. VaR measures based on the multifractal volatility model and EVT method outperform many GARCH-type models at high-risk levels.

  5. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  6. Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Wei

    2012-01-01

    An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

  7. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    PubMed

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  8. Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    Institute/Electronic Industries Association (ANSI/ EIA ) 748 (DCMA, 2011). Dibert and Velez (2006) stated that the guidelines provide a practical...EVMS guidelines as issued by ANSI/ EIA 748 . However, the present research project focuses only on 13 EVMS guidelines that Senior DCMA EVM specialists...2012a). Failure 4 to meet ANSI/ EIA 748 ’s standards for any of the 13 guidelines results in a significant deficiency and disapproval of the EVM

  9. Using expert judgments to understand spatial patterns of forest-based camping: a values-at-risk application.

    PubMed

    Neupane, Anish; Boxall, Peter C; McFarlane, Bonita L; Pelletier, Rick T

    2007-10-01

    Fire management agencies in Canada are mandated with protecting multiple forest values from wildfire. Deciding where to reduce fire hazard and how to allocate resources and fire suppression efforts requires an understanding of the values-at-risk from wildfire. The protection of recreation infrastructure is often assumed to provide adequate protection of recreation values. We use an expert judgment approach to provide a spatial distribution of recreation values-at-risk in the forested eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain region of Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in 2004 from 11 land managers responsible for public lands management and wildfire prevention in the region. Expert assessments showed that recreation values were not confined to areas with publicly funded infrastructure. Exploratory spatial analysis of the ratings identified hotspots and cold spots of recreation activity. Maps resulting from these efforts will provide guidance to fire managers in the prioritization of fire management activities.

  10. Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VaR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-30

    factors (loss frequency defined as the number of loss events over a set time frame), 3. measure exposure (loss severity defined as the monetary size ... size of the loss once it occurs. Both E(n) and E(x) are two loss distributions that are combined using the open form solutions method in which the...Civic Hyundai Elantra Toyota Corolla Honda Civic -1 +1 Hyundai Elantra +1 +1 Toyota Corolla 0 -1 MPG Honda Civic Hyundai Elantra Toyota

  11. Foreign Exchange Value-at-Risk with Multiple Currency Exposure: A Multivariate and Copula Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-11-01

    à un risque financier lié aux varia- tions du taux de change, et les responsables de la gestion interne se voient donc pressés de trouver des...Jondeau, E. and Rockinger, M. (2006), The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application, Journal of

  12. Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) with a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) criterion for management of storm-water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piantadosi, J.; Metcalfe, A. V.; Howlett, P. G.

    2008-01-01

    SummaryWe present a new approach to stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to determine a policy for management of urban storm-water that minimises conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Storm-water flows into a large capture dam and is subsequently pumped to a holding dam. Water is then supplied directly to users or stored in an underground aquifer. We assume random inflow and constant demand. SDP is used to find a pumping policy that minimises CVaR, with a penalty for increased risk of environmental damage, and a pumping policy that maximises expected monetary value (EMV). We use both value iteration and policy improvement to show that the optimal policy under CVaR differs from the optimal policy under EMV.

  13. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    PubMed Central

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  14. The EMEFS model evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Barchet, W.R. ); Dennis, R.L. ); Seilkop, S.K. ); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. ); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. Guidelines for Model Evaluation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-01-01

    by a decisionmaker. The full-scale evaluation of a complex model can be an expensive, time- consuming effort requiring diverse talents and skills...relative to PIES, were documented in a report to the Congress. 2/ An important side- effect of that document was that a foundation was laid for model...while for model evaluation there are no generally accepted standards or methods. Hence, GAO perceives the need to expand upon the lessons learned in

  16. Climate models and model evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Gates, W.L.

    1994-12-31

    This brief overview addresses aspects of the nature, uses, evaluation and limitations of climate models. A comprehensive global modeling capability has been achieved only for the physical climate system, which is characterized by processes that serve to transport and exchange momentum, heat and moisture within and between the atmosphere, ocean and land surface. The fundamental aim of climate modeling, and the justification for the use of climate models, is the need to achieve a quantitative understanding of the operation of the climate system and to exploit any potential predictability that may exist.

  17. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  18. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  19. VPPA weld model evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccutcheon, Kimble D.; Gordon, Stephen S.; Thompson, Paul A.

    1992-01-01

    NASA uses the Variable Polarity Plasma Arc Welding (VPPAW) process extensively for fabrication of Space Shuttle External Tanks. This welding process has been in use at NASA since the late 1970's but the physics of the process have never been satisfactorily modeled and understood. In an attempt to advance the level of understanding of VPPAW, Dr. Arthur C. Nunes, Jr., (NASA) has developed a mathematical model of the process. The work described in this report evaluated and used two versions (level-0 and level-1) of Dr. Nunes' model, and a model derived by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) from Dr. Nunes' level-1 model. Two series of VPPAW experiments were done, using over 400 different combinations of welding parameters. Observations were made of VPPAW process behavior as a function of specific welding parameter changes. Data from these weld experiments was used to evaluate and suggest improvements to Dr. Nunes' model. Experimental data and correlations with the model were used to develop a multi-variable control algorithm for use with a future VPPAW controller. This algorithm is designed to control weld widths (both on the crown and root of the weld) based upon the weld parameters, base metal properties, and real-time observation of the crown width. The algorithm exhibited accuracy comparable to that of the weld width measurements for both aluminum and mild steel welds.

  20. Evaluating Health Risk Models

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    SUMMARY Interest in targeted disease prevention has stimulated development of models that assign risks to individuals, using their personal covariates. We need to evaluate these models and quantify the gains achieved by expanding a model to include additional covariates. This paper reviews several performance measures and shows how they are related. Examples are used to show that appropriate performance criteria for a risk model depend upon how the model is used. Application of the performance measures to risk models for hypothetical populations and for US women at risk of breast cancer illustrate two additional points. First, model performance is constrained by the distribution of risk-determining covariates in the population. This complicates the comparison of two models when applied to populations with different covariate distributions. Second, all summary performance measures obscure model features of relevance to its utility for the application at hand, such as performance in specific subgroups of the population. In particular, the precision gained by adding covariates to a model can be small overall, but large in certain subgroups. We propose new ways to identify these subgroups and to quantify how much they gain by measuring the additional covariates. Those with largest gains could be targeted for cost-efficient covariate assessment. PMID:20623821

  1. Composite Load Model Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Ning; Qiao, Hong

    2007-09-30

    The WECC load modeling task force has dedicated its effort in the past few years to develop a composite load model that can represent behaviors of different end-user components. The modeling structure of the composite load model is recommended by the WECC load modeling task force. GE Energy has implemented this composite load model with a new function CMPLDW in its power system simulation software package, PSLF. For the last several years, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has taken the lead and collaborated with GE Energy to develop the new composite load model. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and BPA joint force and conducted the evaluation of the CMPLDW and test its parameter settings to make sure that: • the model initializes properly, • all the parameter settings are functioning, and • the simulation results are as expected. The PNNL effort focused on testing the CMPLDW in a 4-bus system. An exhaustive testing on each parameter setting has been performed to guarantee each setting works. This report is a summary of the PNNL testing results and conclusions.

  2. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  3. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    This poster describes a model evaluation tool that is currently being developed and applied for meteorological and air quality model evaluation. The poster outlines the framework and provides examples of statistical evaluations that can be performed with the model evaluation tool...

  4. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    This poster describes a model evaluation tool that is currently being developed and applied for meteorological and air quality model evaluation. The poster outlines the framework and provides examples of statistical evaluations that can be performed with the model evaluation tool...

  5. BioVapor Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    General background on modeling and specifics of modeling vapor intrusion are given. Three classical model applications are described and related to the problem of petroleum vapor intrusion. These indicate the need for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Evaluation of Bi...

  6. BioVapor Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    General background on modeling and specifics of modeling vapor intrusion are given. Three classical model applications are described and related to the problem of petroleum vapor intrusion. These indicate the need for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Evaluation of Bi...

  7. Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stufflebeam, Daniel L.; Shinkfield, Anthony J.

    2007-01-01

    "Evaluation Theory, Models, and Applications" is designed for evaluators and students who need to develop a commanding knowledge of the evaluation field: its history, theory and standards, models and approaches, procedures, and inclusion of personnel as well as program evaluation. This important book shows how to choose from a growing…

  8. Evaluating Causal Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watt, James H., Jr.

    Pointing out that linear causal models can organize the interrelationships of a large number of variables, this paper contends that such models are particularly useful to mass communication research, which must by necessity deal with complex systems of variables. The paper first outlines briefly the philosophical requirements for establishing a…

  9. Model Program Evaluations. Fact Sheet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arkansas Safe Schools Initiative Division, 2002

    2002-01-01

    There are probably thousands of programs and courses intended to prevent or reduce violence in this nation's schools. Evaluating these many programs has become a problem or goal in itself. There are now many evaluation programs, with many levels of designations, such as model, promising, best practice, exemplary and noteworthy. "Model program" is…

  10. Science Process Evaluation Model. Monograph.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Small, Larry

    The goal of this monograph is to explain the evaluation program designed by Schaumburg Community Consolidated District 54, Schaumberg, Illinois. It discusses the process used in the development of the model, the product, the implication for classroom teachers and the effects of using an evaluation to assess science process skills. The process…

  11. Advocacy Evaluation: A Model for Internal Evaluation Offices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sonnichsen, Richard C.

    1988-01-01

    As evaluations are more often implemented by internal staff, internal evaluators must begin to assume decision-making and advocacy tasks. This advocacy evaluation concept is described using the Federal Bureau of Investigation evaluation staff as a model. (TJH)

  12. Sequentially Executed Model Evaluation Framework

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-14

    Provides a message passing framework between generic input, model and output drivers, and specifies an API for developing such drivers. Also provides batch and real-time controllers which step the model and 1/0 through the time domain (or other discrete domain), and sample 1/0 drivers. This is a Framework library framework, and does not, itself, solve any problems or execute any modelling. The SeMe framework aids in development of models which operate on sequential information, such as time-series, where evaluation is based on prior results combined with new data for this iteration. Ha) applications in quality monitoring, and was developed as part of the CANARY-EDS software, where real-time water quality data is being analyzed

  13. Sequentially Executed Model Evaluation Framework

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-14

    Provides a message passing framework between generic input, model and output drivers, and specifies an API for developing such drivers. Also provides batch and real-time controllers which step the model and 1/0 through the time domain (or other discrete domain), and sample 1/0 drivers. This is a Framework library framework, and does not, itself, solve any problems or execute any modelling. The SeMe framework aids in development of models which operate on sequential information, such as time-series, where evaluation is based on prior results combined with new data for this iteration. Ha) applications in quality monitoring, and was developed as part of the CANARY-EDS software, where real-time water quality data is being analyzed

  14. Sequentially Executed Model Evaluation Framework

    SciTech Connect

    2015-10-20

    Provides a message passing framework between generic input, model and output drivers, and specifies an API for developing such drivers. Also provides batch and real-time controllers which step the model and I/O through the time domain (or other discrete domain), and sample I/O drivers. This is a library framework, and does not, itself, solve any problems or execute any modeling. The SeMe framework aids in development of models which operate on sequential information, such as time-series, where evaluation is based on prior results combined with new data for this iteration. Has applications in quality monitoring, and was developed as part of the CANARY-EDS software, where real-time water quality data is being analyzed for anomalies.

  15. Sequentially Executed Model Evaluation Framework

    SciTech Connect

    2015-10-20

    Provides a message passing framework between generic input, model and output drivers, and specifies an API for developing such drivers. Also provides batch and real-time controllers which step the model and I/O through the time domain (or other discrete domain), and sample I/O drivers. This is a library framework, and does not, itself, solve any problems or execute any modeling. The SeMe framework aids in development of models which operate on sequential information, such as time-series, where evaluation is based on prior results combined with new data for this iteration. Has applications in quality monitoring, and was developed as part of the CANARY-EDS software, where real-time water quality data is being analyzed for anomalies.

  16. Infrasound Sensor Models and Evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    KROMER,RICHARD P.; MCDONALD,TIMOTHY S.

    2000-07-31

    Sandia National Laboratories has continued to evaluate the performance of infrasound sensors that are candidates for use by the International Monitoring System (IMS) for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. The performance criteria against which these sensors are assessed are specified in ``Operational Manual for Infra-sound Monitoring and the International Exchange of Infrasound Data''. This presentation includes the results of efforts concerning two of these sensors: (1) Chaparral Physics Model 5; and (2) CEA MB2000. Sandia is working with Chaparral Physics in order to improve the capability of the Model 5 (a prototype sensor) to be calibrated and evaluated. With the assistance of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Sandia is also conducting tests to evaluate the performance of the CEA MB2000. Sensor models based on theoretical transfer functions and manufacturer specifications for these two devices have been developed. This presentation will feature the results of coherence-based data analysis of signals from a huddle test, utilizing several sensors of both types, in order to verify the sensor performance.

  17. A Taxonomy of Evaluation Models: Use of Evaluation Models in Program Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Wayne E.

    In the nine years following the passage of the Elementary Secondary Education Act (ESEA), several models have been developed to attempt to remedy the deficiencies in existing educational evaluation and decision theory noted by Stufflebeam and co-workers. Compilations of evaluation models have been undertaken and listings exist of models available…

  18. Evaluation strategies for CNSs: application of an evaluation model.

    PubMed

    Kennedy-Malone, L M

    1996-07-01

    Program development has become an essential role function for today's CNS, who must be able to evaluate programs to determine their efficacy. A useful evaluation guide is Stufflebeam's CIPP (context, input, process, and product) model, which includes a framework to evaluate indirect care measures directly affecting cost-effectiveness and accountability. The model's core consists of (1) context evaluation leading to informed, contemplated decisions; (2) input evaluation directing structured decisions; (3) process evaluation guiding implemented decisions; and (4) product evaluation serving to recycle decisions. Strategies for using Stufflebeam's CIPP model are described.

  19. Evaluating models of vowel perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molis, Michelle R.

    2005-08-01

    There is a long-standing debate concerning the efficacy of formant-based versus whole spectrum models of vowel perception. Categorization data for a set of synthetic steady-state vowels were used to evaluate both types of models. The models tested included various combinations of formant frequencies and amplitudes, principal components derived from excitation patterns, and perceptually scaled LPC cepstral coefficients. The stimuli were 54 five-formant synthesized vowels that had a common F1 frequency and varied orthogonally in F2 and F3 frequency. Twelve speakers of American English categorized the stimuli as the vowels /smcapi/, /capomega/, or /hkbkeh/. Results indicate that formant frequencies provided the best account of the data only if nonlinear terms, in the form of squares and cross products of the formant values, were also included in the analysis. The excitation pattern principal components also produced reasonably accurate fits to the data. Although a wish to use the lowest-dimensional representation would dictate that formant frequencies are the most appropriate vowel description, the relative success of richer, more flexible, and more neurophysiologically plausible whole spectrum representations suggests that they may be preferred for understanding human vowel perception.

  20. The Idiographic Evaluation Model in Crime Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hurwitz, Jacob I.

    1984-01-01

    Presents some recent developments in the evaluation of crime prevention and control programs, including the increased use of process evaluation models. Describes the nature, methods, and advantages of the idiographic (or single subject) model as used in social work. (JAC)

  1. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  2. Beyond Evaluation: A Model for Cooperative Evaluation of Internet Resources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood, Hal P., Jr.

    1998-01-01

    Presents a status report on Web site evaluation efforts, listing dead, merged, new review, Yahoo! wannabes, subject-specific review, former librarian-managed, and librarian-managed review sites; discusses how sites are evaluated; describes and demonstrates (reviewing company directories) the Marr/Kirkwood evaluation model; and provides an…

  3. Model Evaluation of Continuous Data Pharmacometric Models: Metrics and Graphics

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, THT; Mouksassi, M‐S; Holford, N; Al‐Huniti, N; Freedman, I; Hooker, AC; John, J; Karlsson, MO; Mould, DR; Pérez Ruixo, JJ; Plan, EL; Savic, R; van Hasselt, JGC; Weber, B; Zhou, C; Comets, E

    2017-01-01

    This article represents the first in a series of tutorials on model evaluation in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEMs), from the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Model Evaluation Group. Numerous tools are available for evaluation of NLMEM, with a particular emphasis on visual assessment. This first basic tutorial focuses on presenting graphical evaluation tools of NLMEM for continuous data. It illustrates graphs for correct or misspecified models, discusses their pros and cons, and recalls the definition of metrics used. PMID:27884052

  4. Model Evaluation of Continuous Data Pharmacometric Models: Metrics and Graphics.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Tht; Mouksassi, M-S; Holford, N; Al-Huniti, N; Freedman, I; Hooker, A C; John, J; Karlsson, M O; Mould, D R; Pérez Ruixo, J J; Plan, E L; Savic, R; van Hasselt, Jgc; Weber, B; Zhou, C; Comets, E; Mentré, F

    2017-02-01

    This article represents the first in a series of tutorials on model evaluation in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEMs), from the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Model Evaluation Group. Numerous tools are available for evaluation of NLMEM, with a particular emphasis on visual assessment. This first basic tutorial focuses on presenting graphical evaluation tools of NLMEM for continuous data. It illustrates graphs for correct or misspecified models, discusses their pros and cons, and recalls the definition of metrics used.

  5. Evaluating Interactive Instructional Technologies: A Cognitive Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, Susan A.

    Strengths and weaknesses of prevailing evaluation models are analyzed, with attention to the role of feedback in each paradigm. A framework is then presented for analyzing issues faced by evaluators of interactive instructional technologies. The current practice of evaluation relies heavily on 3 models developed over 20 years ago: (1) the…

  6. Differential program evaluation model in child protection.

    PubMed

    Lalayants, Marina

    2012-01-01

    Increasingly attention has been focused to the degree to which social programs have effectively and efficiently delivered services. Using the differential program evaluation model by Tripodi, Fellin, and Epstein (1978) and by Bielawski and Epstein (1984), this paper described the application of this model to evaluating a multidisciplinary clinical consultation practice in child protection. This paper discussed the uses of the model by demonstrating them through the four stages of program initiation, contact, implementation, and stabilization. This organizational case study made a contribution to the model by introducing essential and interrelated elements of a "practical evaluation" methodology in evaluating social programs, such as a participatory evaluation approach; learning, empowerment and sustainability; and a flexible individualized approach to evaluation. The study results demonstrated that by applying the program development model, child-protective administrators and practitioners were able to evaluate the existing practices and recognize areas for program improvement.

  7. EPA Corporate GHG Goal Evaluation Model

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The EPA Corporate GHG Goal Evaluation Model provides companies with a transparent and publicly available benchmarking resource to help evaluate and establish new or existing GHG goals that go beyond business as usual for their individual sectors.

  8. Toward an Ecological Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Jackson; Patterson, Jerry L.

    1979-01-01

    The authors suggest that the aura of authority traditionally placed on educational research and evaluation has been based on an outdated understanding of the scientific enterprise. They outline an alternative view of science which is more ecological and provides more scope and power for evaluating educational programs. They propose a new framework…

  9. Toward an Ecological Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Jackson; Patterson, Jerry L.

    1979-01-01

    The authors suggest that the aura of authority traditionally placed on educational research and evaluation has been based on an outdated understanding of the scientific enterprise. They outline an alternative view of science which is more ecological and provides more scope and power for evaluating educational programs. They propose a new framework…

  10. A Communication Model for Evaluation and Remediation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bown, J. Clinton

    1972-01-01

    The communication model, described within the framework of channels, levels, and processes, is intended to clarify evaluative, prescriptive, and instructional practices for exceptional children. (Author/KW)

  11. Evaluating Regional-Scale Air Quality Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Numerical air quality models are being used to understand the complex interplay among emission loading meteorology, and atmospheric chemistry leading to the formation and accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere. A model evaluation framework is presented here that considers ...

  12. Using multifractals to evaluate oceanographic model skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skákala, Jozef; Cazenave, Pierre W.; Smyth, Timothy J.; Torres, Ricardo

    2016-08-01

    We are in an era of unprecedented data volumes generated from observations and model simulations. This is particularly true from satellite Earth Observations (EO) and global scale oceanographic models. This presents us with an opportunity to evaluate large-scale oceanographic model outputs using EO data. Previous work on model skill evaluation has led to a plethora of metrics. The paper defines two new model skill evaluation metrics. The metrics are based on the theory of universal multifractals and their purpose is to measure the structural similarity between the model predictions and the EO data. The two metrics have the following advantages over the standard techniques: (a) they are scale-free and (b) they carry important part of information about how model represents different oceanographic drivers. Those two metrics are then used in the paper to evaluate the performance of the FVCOM model in the shelf seas around the south-west coast of the UK.

  13. The EMEFS model evaluation. An interim report

    SciTech Connect

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  14. Large Signal Evaluation of Nonlinear HBT Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angelov, Iltcho; Inoue, Akira; Watanabe, Shinsuke

    The performance of recently developed Large Signal (LS) HBT model was evaluated with extensive LS measurements like Power spectrum, Load pull and Inter-modulation investigations. Proposed model has adopted temperature dependent leakage resistance and a simplified capacitance models. The model was implemented in ADS as SDD. Important feature of the model is that the main model parameters are taken directly from measurements in rather simple and understandable way. Results show good accuracy despite the simplicity of the model. To our knowledge the HBT model is one of a few HBT models which can handle high current & Power HBT devices, with significantly less model parameters with good accuracy.

  15. Evaluating modeling tools for the EDOS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knoble, Gordon; Mccaleb, Frederick; Aslam, Tanweer; Nester, Paul

    1994-01-01

    The Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Operations System (EDOS) Project is developing a functional, system performance model to support the system implementation phase of the EDOS which is being designed and built by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The EDOS Project will use modeling to meet two key objectives: (1) manage system design impacts introduced by unplanned changed in mission requirements; and (2) evaluate evolutionary technology insertions throughout the development of the EDOS. To select a suitable modeling tool, the EDOS modeling team developed an approach for evaluating modeling tools and languages by deriving evaluation criteria from both the EDOS modeling requirements and the development plan. Essential and optional features for an appropriate modeling tool were identified and compared with known capabilities of several modeling tools. Vendors were also provided the opportunity to model a representative EDOS processing function to demonstrate the applicability of their modeling tool to the EDOS modeling requirements. This paper emphasizes the importance of using a well defined approach for evaluating tools to model complex systems like the EDOS. The results of this evaluation study do not in any way signify the superiority of any one modeling tool since the results will vary with the specific modeling requirements of each project.

  16. Corrections Education Evaluation System Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Orville; And Others

    The purpose of this project was to develop an evaluation system for the competency-based vocational program developed by Wisconsin's Division of Corrections, Department of Public Instruction (DPI), and the Vocational, Technical, and Adult Education System (VTAE). Site visits were conducted at five correctional institutions in March and April of…

  17. Program Development and Evaluation: A Modeling Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Green, Donald W.; Corgiat, RayLene

    A model of program development and evaluation was developed at Genesee Community College, utilizing a system theory/process of deductive and inductive reasoning to ensure coherence and continuity within the program. The model links activities to specific measurable outcomes. Evaluation checks and feedback are built in at various levels so that…

  18. A Critique of Kirkpatrick's Evaluation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reio, Thomas G., Jr.; Rocco, Tonette S.; Smith, Douglas H.; Chang, Elegance

    2017-01-01

    Donald Kirkpatrick published a series of articles originating from his doctoral dissertation in the late 1950s describing a four-level training evaluation model. From its beginning, it was easily understood and became one of the most influential evaluation models impacting the field of HRD. While well received and popular, the Kirkpatrick model…

  19. A Model for Administrative Evaluation by Subordinates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Budig, Jeanne E.

    Under the administrator evaluation program adopted at Vincennes University, all faculty and professional staff are invited to evaluate each administrator above them in the chain of command. Originally based on the Purdue University "cafeteria" system, this evaluation model has been used biannually for 10 years. In an effort to simplify the system,…

  20. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION (AMET): METEOROLOGY MODULE

    EPA Science Inventory

    An Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET), composed of meteorological and air quality components, is being developed to examine the error and uncertainty in the model simulations. AMET matches observations with the corresponding model-estimated values in space and time, and the...

  1. Comprehensive system models: Strategies for evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Field, Christopher; Kutzbach, John E.; Ramanathan, V.; Maccracken, Michael C.

    1992-01-01

    The task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models is vast involving validations of every model component at every scale of organization, as well as tests of all the individual linkages. Even the most detailed evaluation of each of the component processes and the individual links among them should not, however, engender confidence in the performance of the whole. The integrated earth system is so rich with complex feedback loops, often involving components of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, that it is certain to exhibit emergent properties very difficult to predict from the perspective of a narrow focus on any individual component of the system. Therefore, a substantial share of the task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models must reside at the level of whole system evaluations. Since complete, integrated atmosphere/ ocean/ biosphere/ hydrology models are not yet operational, questions of evaluation must be addressed at the level of the kinds of earth system processes that the models should be competent to simulate, rather than at the level of specific performance criteria. Here, we have tried to identify examples of earth system processes that are difficult to simulate with existing models and that involve a rich enough suite of feedbacks that they are unlikely to be satisfactorily described by highly simplified or toy models. Our purpose is not to specify a checklist of evaluation criteria but to introduce characteristics of the earth system that may present useful opportunities for model testing and, of course, improvement.

  2. Evaluation of model fit in nonlinear multilevel structural equation modeling

    PubMed Central

    Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Kerwer, Martin; Klein, Andreas G.

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating model fit in nonlinear multilevel structural equation models (MSEM) presents a challenge as no adequate test statistic is available. Nevertheless, using a product indicator approach a likelihood ratio test for linear models is provided which may also be useful for nonlinear MSEM. The main problem with nonlinear models is that product variables are non-normally distributed. Although robust test statistics have been developed for linear SEM to ensure valid results under the condition of non-normality, they have not yet been investigated for nonlinear MSEM. In a Monte Carlo study, the performance of the robust likelihood ratio test was investigated for models with single-level latent interaction effects using the unconstrained product indicator approach. As overall model fit evaluation has a potential limitation in detecting the lack of fit at a single level even for linear models, level-specific model fit evaluation was also investigated using partially saturated models. Four population models were considered: a model with interaction effects at both levels, an interaction effect at the within-group level, an interaction effect at the between-group level, and a model with no interaction effects at both levels. For these models the number of groups, predictor correlation, and model misspecification was varied. The results indicate that the robust test statistic performed sufficiently well. Advantages of level-specific model fit evaluation for the detection of model misfit are demonstrated. PMID:24624110

  3. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  4. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  5. Evaluation and Comparison of Computational Models

    PubMed Central

    Myung, Jay; Tang, Yun; Pitt, Mark A.

    2009-01-01

    Computational models are powerful tools that can enhance the understanding of scientific phenomena. The enterprise of modeling is most productive when the reasons underlying the adequacy of a model, and possibly its superiority to other models, are understood. This chapter begins with an overview of the main criteria that must be considered in model evaluation and selection, in particular explaining why generalizability is the preferred criterion for model selection. This is followed by a review of measures of generalizability. The final section demonstrates the use of five versatile and easy-to-use selection methods for choosing between two mathematical models of protein folding. PMID:19216931

  6. [Evaluation model for municipal health planning management].

    PubMed

    Berretta, Isabel Quint; Lacerda, Josimari Telino de; Calvo, Maria Cristina Marino

    2011-11-01

    This article presents an evaluation model for municipal health planning management. The basis was a methodological study using the health planning theoretical framework to construct the evaluation matrix, in addition to an understanding of the organization and functioning designed by the Planning System of the Unified National Health System (PlanejaSUS) and definition of responsibilities for the municipal level under the Health Management Pact. The indicators and measures were validated using the consensus technique with specialists in planning and evaluation. The applicability was tested in 271 municipalities (counties) in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, based on population size. The proposed model features two evaluative dimensions which reflect the municipal health administrator's commitment to planning: the guarantee of resources and the internal and external relations needed for developing the activities. The data were analyzed using indicators, sub-dimensions, and dimensions. The study concludes that the model is feasible and appropriate for evaluating municipal performance in health planning management.

  7. Evaluation of Galactic Cosmic Ray Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.; Heiblim, Samuel; Malott, Christopher

    2009-01-01

    Models of the galactic cosmic ray spectra have been tested by comparing their predictions to an evaluated database containing more than 380 measured cosmic ray spectra extending from 1960 to the present.

  8. Metrics for Evaluation of Student Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelanek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

  9. Metrics for Evaluation of Student Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pelanek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

  10. Evaluation Model for Career Programs. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byerly, Richard L.; And Others

    A study was conducted to provide and test an evaluative model that could be utilized in providing curricular evaluation of the various career programs. Two career fields, dental assistant and auto mechanic, were chosen for study. A questionnaire based upon the actual job performance was completed by six groups connected with the auto mechanics and…

  11. The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through AQMEII with a particular focus on past and future analyses of deposition. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  12. The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through AQMEII with a particular focus on past and future analyses of deposition. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

  13. SAPHIRE models and software for ASP evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Schroeder, J.A.; Russell, K.D.

    1995-04-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the past year has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of conditional core damage probability (CCDP) evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both NRR and AEOD. This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events.

  14. Abstraction and model evaluation in category learning.

    PubMed

    Vanpaemel, Wolf; Storms, Gert

    2010-05-01

    Thirty previously published data sets, from seminal category learning tasks, are reanalyzed using the varying abstraction model (VAM). Unlike a prototype-versus-exemplar analysis, which focuses on extreme levels of abstraction only, a VAM analysis also considers the possibility of partial abstraction. Whereas most data sets support no abstraction when only the extreme possibilities are considered, we show that evidence for abstraction can be provided using the broader view on abstraction provided by the VAM. The present results generalize earlier demonstrations of partial abstraction (Vanpaemel & Storms, 2008), in which only a small number of data sets was analyzed. Following the dominant modus operandi in category learning research, Vanpaemel and Storms evaluated the models on their best fit, a practice known to ignore the complexity of the models under consideration. In the present study, in contrast, model evaluation not only relies on the maximal likelihood, but also on the marginal likelihood, which is sensitive to model complexity. Finally, using a large recovery study, it is demonstrated that, across the 30 data sets, complexity differences between the models in the VAM family are small. This indicates that a (computationally challenging) complexity-sensitive model evaluation method is uncalled for, and that the use of a (computationally straightforward) complexity-insensitive model evaluation method is justified.

  15. Evaluating AEROCOM Models with Remote Sensing Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schutgens, N.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Weigum, N.; Veira, A.; Partridge, D.; Stier, P.

    2014-12-01

    We present an in-depth evaluation of AEROCOM models with a variety of remote sensing datasets: MODIS AOT (& AE over ocean), AERONET, AOT, AE & SSA and Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) AOT & AE. Together these datasets provide extensive global and temporal coverage and measure both extensive (AOT) as well as intensive aerosol properties (AE & SSA). Models and observations differ strongly in their spatio-temporal sampling. Model results are typical of large gridboxes (100 by 100 km), while observations are made over much smaller areas (10 by 10 km for MODIS, even smaller for AERONET and MAN). Model results are always available in contrast to observations that are intermittent due to orbital constraints, retrieval limitations and instrument failure/maintenance. We find that differences in AOT due to sampling effects can be 100% for instantaneous values and can still be 40% for monthly or yearly averages. Such differences are comparable to or larger than typical retrieval errors in the observations. We propose strategies (temporal colocation, spatial aggregation) for reducing these sampling errors Finally, we evaluate one year of co-located AOT, AE and SSA from several AEROCOM models against MODIS, AERONET and MAN observations. Where the observational datasets overlap, they give similar results but in general they allow us to evaluate models in very different spatio-temporal domains. We show that even small datasets like MAN AOT or AERONET SSA, provide a useful standard for evaluating models thanks to temporal colocation. The models differ quite a bit from the observations and each model differs in its own way. These results are presented through global maps of yearly averaged differences, time-series of modelled and observed data, scatter plots of correlations among observables (e.g. SSA vs AE) and Taylor diagrams. In particular, we find that the AEROCOM emissions substantially underestimate wildfire emissions and that many models have aerosol that is too absorbing.

  16. Evaluation of a lake whitefish bioenergetics model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Argyle, Ray L.; Brandt, Stephen B.

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the laboratory and in the field. For the laboratory evaluation, lake whitefish were fed rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax in four laboratory tanks during a 133-d experiment. Based on a comparison of bioenergetics model predictions of lake whitefish food consumption and growth with observed consumption and growth, we concluded that the bioenergetics model furnished significantly biased estimates of both food consumption and growth. On average, the model overestimated consumption by 61% and underestimated growth by 16%. The source of the bias was probably an overestimation of the respiration rate. We therefore adjusted the respiration component of the bioenergetics model to obtain a good fit of the model to the observed consumption and growth in our laboratory tanks. Based on the adjusted model, predictions of food consumption over the 133-d period fell within 5% of observed consumption in three of the four tanks and within 9% of observed consumption in the remaining tank. We used polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as a tracer to evaluate model performance in the field. Based on our laboratory experiment, the efficiency with which lake whitefish retained PCBs from their food (I?) was estimated at 0.45. We applied the bioenergetics model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish and then used PCB determinations of both lake whitefish and their prey from Lake Michigan to estimate p in the field. Application of the original model to Lake Michigan lake whitefish yielded a field estimate of 0.28, implying that the original formulation of the model overestimated consumption in Lake Michigan by 61%. Application of the bioenergetics model with the adjusted respiration component resulted in a field I? estimate of 0.56, implying that this revised model underestimated consumption by 20%.

  17. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  18. The Discrepancy Evaluation Model. I. Basic Tenets of the Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steinmetz, Andres

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the discrepancy evaluation model (DEM), developed by Malcolm Provus, are presented. The three concepts which are essential to DEM are defined: (1) the standard is a description of how something should be; (2) performance measures are used to find out the actual characteristics of the object being evaluated; and (3) the…

  19. Saphire models and software for ASP evaluations

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-02-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the three years has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events. Future plans for the ASP models is also presented.

  20. Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferguson, M. C.

    1982-01-01

    Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

  1. Iowa Flood Center Model Performance Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quintero, F.; Krajewski, W. F.; Mantilla, R.; Seo, B. C.

    2016-12-01

    We evaluated the performance of a hydrologic model which produces real-time flow forecasts. The model was developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) and it is implemented operationally to produce streamflow forecast for the communities of the state of Iowa in the United States. The model parameters are calibration-free. It has a parsimonious structure that reproduces the more significant processes involved in the transformation from rainfall to runoff. The operational model uses a rainfall forcing produced by IFC, derived from the combination of rainfall fields of seven NEXRAD radars. This rainfall forcing does not include bias adjustment from rain gauges, due to the non-existence of a raingage network that enable the correction in real-time. Therefore, the model was also evaluated using the bias-adjusted rainfall product Stage IV. We used six years of IFC rainfall and Stage IV to evaluate the performance of the hydrologic model and the sensitivity of the flow simulations to the model input. The model was not calibrated to any particular rainfall product. The distributed structure of the model allows obtaining results at any channel of the drainage network. We produced simulated hydrographs at about 140 locations with different sub-basin spatial scales, where USGS streamflow observations are available. We compared flow simulations to observations and obtained several metrics of error including Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, normalized root mean square error, volume error and time to peak error. We also evaluated the number of occurrences of hits and false alarms of discharge forecasts exceeding flood stage.

  2. [Evaluation of the Dresden Tympanoplasty Model (DTM)].

    PubMed

    Beleites, T; Neudert, M; Lasurashvili, N; Kemper, M; Offergeld, C; Hofmann, G; Zahnert, T

    2011-11-01

    The training of microsurgical motor skills is essentiell for surgical education if the interests of the patient are to be safeguarded. In otosurgery the complex anatomy of the temporal bone and variations necessitate a special training before performing surgery on a patient. We therefore developed and evaluated a simplified middle ear model for acquiring first microsurgical skills in tympanoplasty.The simplified tympanoplasty model consists of the outer ear canal and a tympanic cavity. A stapes model is placed in projection of the upper posterior tympanic membrane quadrant at the medial wall of the simulated tympanic cavity. To imitate the annular ligament flexibility the stapes is fixed on a soft plastic pad. 41 subjects evaluated the model´s anatomical analogy, the comparability to the real surgical situation and the general model properties the using a special questionnaire.The tympanoplasty model was very well evaluated by all participants. It is a reasonably priced model and a useful tool in microsurgical skills training. Thereby, it closes the gap between theoretical training and real operation conditions.

  3. Evaluating snow models for hydrological applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonas, T.; Magnusson, J.; Wever, N.; Essery, R.; Helbig, N.

    2014-12-01

    Much effort has been invested in developing snow models over several decades, resulting in a wide variety of empirical and physically-based snow models. Within the two categories, models are built on the same principles but mainly differ in choices of model simplifications and parameterizations describing individual processes. In this study, we demonstrate an informative method for evaluating a large range of snow model structures for hydrological applications using an existing multi-model energy-balance framework and data from two well-instrumented sites with a seasonal snow cover. We also include two temperature-index snow models and one physically-based multi-layer snow model in our analyses. Our results show that the ability of models to predict snowpack runoff is strongly related to the agreement of observed and modelled snow water equivalent whereas such relationship is not present for snow depth or snow surface temperature measurements. For snow water equivalent and runoff, the models seem transferable between our two study sites, a behaviour which is not observed for snow surface temperature predictions due to site-specificity of turbulent heat transfer formulations. Uncertainties in the input and validation data, rather than model formulation, appear to contribute most to low model performances in some winters. More importantly, we find that model complexity is not a determinant for predicting daily snow water equivalent and runoff reliably, but choosing an appropriate model structure is. Our study shows the usefulness of the multi-model framework for identifying appropriate models under given constraints such as data availability, properties of interest and computational cost.

  4. PREFACE SPECIAL ISSUE ON MODEL EVALUATION: EVALUATION OF URBAN AND REGIONAL EULERIAN AIR QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The "Preface to the Special Edition on Model Evaluation: Evaluation of Urban and Regional Eulerian Air Quality Models" is a brief introduction to the papers included in a special issue of Atmospheric Environment. The Preface provides a background for the papers, which have thei...

  5. PREFACE SPECIAL ISSUE ON MODEL EVALUATION: EVALUATION OF URBAN AND REGIONAL EULERIAN AIR QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The "Preface to the Special Edition on Model Evaluation: Evaluation of Urban and Regional Eulerian Air Quality Models" is a brief introduction to the papers included in a special issue of Atmospheric Environment. The Preface provides a background for the papers, which have thei...

  6. Evaluation of a habitat suitability index model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farmer, A.H.; Cade, B.S.; Stauffer, D.F.

    2002-01-01

    We assisted with development of a model for maternity habitat of the Indiana bat (Myotis soda/is), for use in conducting assessments of projects potentially impacting this endangered species. We started with an existing model, modified that model in a workshop, and evaluated the revised model, using data previously collected by others. Our analyses showed that higher indices of habitat suitability were associated with sites where Indiana bats were present and, thus, the model may be useful for identifying suitable habitat. Utility of the model, however, was based on a single component-density of suitable roost trees. Percentage of landscape in forest did not allow differentiation between sites occupied and not occupied by Indiana bats. Moreover, in spite of a general opinion by participants in the workshop that bodies of water were highly productive feeding areas and that a diversity of feeding habitats was optimal, we found no evidence to support either hypothesis.

  7. Performance Evaluation of Dense Gas Dispersion Models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Touma, Jawad S.; Cox, William M.; Thistle, Harold; Zapert, James G.

    1995-03-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a study to evaluate the performance of seven dense gas dispersion models using data from three field experiments. Two models (DEGADIS and SLAB) are in the public domain and the other five (AIRTOX, CHARM, FOCUS, SAFEMODE, and TRACE) are proprietary. The field data used are the Desert Tortoise pressurized ammonia releases, Burro liquefied natural gas spill tests, and the Goldfish anhydrous hydrofluoric acid spill experiments. Desert Tortoise and Goldfish releases were simulated as horizontal jet releases, and Burro as a liquid pool. Performance statistics were used to compare maximum observed concentrations and plume half-width to those predicted by each model. Model performance varied and no model exhibited consistently good performance across all three databases. However, when combined across the three databases, all models performed within a factor of 2. Problems encountered are discussed in order to help future investigators.

  8. Evaluation of a Mysis bioenergetics model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chipps, S.R.; Bennett, D.H.

    2002-01-01

    Direct approaches for estimating the feeding rate of the opossum shrimp Mysis relicta can be hampered by variable gut residence time (evacuation rate models) and non-linear functional responses (clearance rate models). Bioenergetics modeling provides an alternative method, but the reliability of this approach needs to be evaluated using independent measures of growth and food consumption. In this study, we measured growth and food consumption for M. relicta and compared experimental results with those predicted from a Mysis bioenergetics model. For Mysis reared at 10??C, model predictions were not significantly different from observed values. Moreover, decomposition of mean square error indicated that 70% of the variation between model predictions and observed values was attributable to random error. On average, model predictions were within 12% of observed values. A sensitivity analysis revealed that Mysis respiration and prey energy density were the most sensitive parameters affecting model output. By accounting for uncertainty (95% CLs) in Mysis respiration, we observed a significant improvement in the accuracy of model output (within 5% of observed values), illustrating the importance of sensitive input parameters for model performance. These findings help corroborate the Mysis bioenergetics model and demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for estimating Mysis feeding rate.

  9. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  10. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  11. Optical Storage Performance Modeling and Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Behera, Bailochan; Singh, Harpreet

    1990-01-01

    Evaluates different types of storage media for long-term archival storage of large amounts of data. Existing storage media are reviewed, including optical disks, optical tape, magnetic storage, and microfilm; three models are proposed based on document storage requirements; performance analysis is considered; and cost effectiveness is discussed.…

  12. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

    2016-01-01

    Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall. PMID:27893803

  13. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    PubMed

    Xuan, Shichang; Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

    2016-01-01

    Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  14. Evaluation of help model replacement codes

    SciTech Connect

    Whiteside, Tad; Hang, Thong; Flach, Gregory

    2009-07-01

    This work evaluates the computer codes that are proposed to be used to predict percolation of water through the closure-cap and into the waste containment zone at the Department of Energy closure sites. This work compares the currently used water-balance code (HELP) with newly developed computer codes that use unsaturated flow (Richards’ equation). It provides a literature review of the HELP model and the proposed codes, which result in two recommended codes for further evaluation: HYDRUS-2D3D and VADOSE/W. This further evaluation involved performing actual simulations on a simple model and comparing the results of those simulations to those obtained with the HELP code and the field data. From the results of this work, we conclude that the new codes perform nearly the same, although moving forward, we recommend HYDRUS-2D3D.

  15. CMAQ Involvement in Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Description of Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). Different chemical transport models are applied by different groups over North America and Europe and evaluated against observations.

  16. Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool for meteorological and air quality simulations

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool compares model predictions to observed data from various meteorological and air quality observation networks to help evaluate meteorological and air quality simulations.

  17. Evaluation (not validation) of quantitative models.

    PubMed

    Oreskes, N

    1998-12-01

    The present regulatory climate has led to increasing demands for scientists to attest to the predictive reliability of numerical simulation models used to help set public policy, a process frequently referred to as model validation. But while model validation may reveal useful information, this paper argues that it is not possible to demonstrate the predictive reliability of any model of a complex natural system in advance of its actual use. All models embed uncertainties, and these uncertainties can and frequently do undermine predictive reliability. In the case of lead in the environment, we may categorize model uncertainties as theoretical, empirical, parametrical, and temporal. Theoretical uncertainties are aspects of the system that are not fully understood, such as the biokinetic pathways of lead metabolism. Empirical uncertainties are aspects of the system that are difficult (or impossible) to measure, such as actual lead ingestion by an individual child. Parametrical uncertainties arise when complexities in the system are simplified to provide manageable model input, such as representing longitudinal lead exposure by cross-sectional measurements. Temporal uncertainties arise from the assumption that systems are stable in time. A model may also be conceptually flawed. The Ptolemaic system of astronomy is a historical example of a model that was empirically adequate but based on a wrong conceptualization. Yet had it been computerized--and had the word then existed--its users would have had every right to call it validated. Thus, rather than talking about strategies for validation, we should be talking about means of evaluation. That is not to say that language alone will solve our problems or that the problems of model evaluation are primarily linguistic. The uncertainties inherent in large, complex models will not go away simply because we change the way we talk about them. But this is precisely the point: calling a model validated does not make it valid

  18. Evaluation (not validation) of quantitative models.

    PubMed Central

    Oreskes, N

    1998-01-01

    The present regulatory climate has led to increasing demands for scientists to attest to the predictive reliability of numerical simulation models used to help set public policy, a process frequently referred to as model validation. But while model validation may reveal useful information, this paper argues that it is not possible to demonstrate the predictive reliability of any model of a complex natural system in advance of its actual use. All models embed uncertainties, and these uncertainties can and frequently do undermine predictive reliability. In the case of lead in the environment, we may categorize model uncertainties as theoretical, empirical, parametrical, and temporal. Theoretical uncertainties are aspects of the system that are not fully understood, such as the biokinetic pathways of lead metabolism. Empirical uncertainties are aspects of the system that are difficult (or impossible) to measure, such as actual lead ingestion by an individual child. Parametrical uncertainties arise when complexities in the system are simplified to provide manageable model input, such as representing longitudinal lead exposure by cross-sectional measurements. Temporal uncertainties arise from the assumption that systems are stable in time. A model may also be conceptually flawed. The Ptolemaic system of astronomy is a historical example of a model that was empirically adequate but based on a wrong conceptualization. Yet had it been computerized--and had the word then existed--its users would have had every right to call it validated. Thus, rather than talking about strategies for validation, we should be talking about means of evaluation. That is not to say that language alone will solve our problems or that the problems of model evaluation are primarily linguistic. The uncertainties inherent in large, complex models will not go away simply because we change the way we talk about them. But this is precisely the point: calling a model validated does not make it valid

  19. Evaluating computational models of cholesterol metabolism.

    PubMed

    Paalvast, Yared; Kuivenhoven, Jan Albert; Groen, Albert K

    2015-10-01

    Regulation of cholesterol homeostasis has been studied extensively during the last decades. Many of the metabolic pathways involved have been discovered. Yet important gaps in our knowledge remain. For example, knowledge on intracellular cholesterol traffic and its relation to the regulation of cholesterol synthesis and plasma cholesterol levels is incomplete. One way of addressing the remaining questions is by making use of computational models. Here, we critically evaluate existing computational models of cholesterol metabolism making use of ordinary differential equations and addressed whether they used assumptions and make predictions in line with current knowledge on cholesterol homeostasis. Having studied the results described by the authors, we have also tested their models. This was done primarily by testing the effect of statin treatment in each model. Ten out of eleven models tested have made assumptions in line with current knowledge of cholesterol metabolism. Three out of the ten remaining models made correct predictions, i.e. predicting a decrease in plasma total and LDL cholesterol or increased uptake of LDL upon treatment upon the use of statins. In conclusion, few models on cholesterol metabolism are able to pass a functional test. Apparently most models have not undergone the critical iterative systems biology cycle of validation. We expect modeling of cholesterol metabolism to go through many more model topologies and iterative cycles and welcome the increased understanding of cholesterol metabolism these are likely to bring.

  20. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  1. Bayesian model evidence as a model evaluation metric

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guthke, Anneli; Höge, Marvin; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    When building environmental systems models, we are typically confronted with the questions of how to choose an appropriate model (i.e., which processes to include or neglect) and how to measure its quality. Various metrics have been proposed that shall guide the modeller towards a most robust and realistic representation of the system under study. Criteria for evaluation often address aspects of accuracy (absence of bias) or of precision (absence of unnecessary variance) and need to be combined in a meaningful way in order to address the inherent bias-variance dilemma. We suggest using Bayesian model evidence (BME) as a model evaluation metric that implicitly performs a tradeoff between bias and variance. BME is typically associated with model weights in the context of Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, it can also be seen as a model evaluation metric in a single-model context or in model comparison. It combines a measure for goodness of fit with a penalty for unjustifiable complexity. Unjustifiable refers to the fact that the appropriate level of model complexity is limited by the amount of information available for calibration. Derived in a Bayesian context, BME naturally accounts for measurement errors in the calibration data as well as for input and parameter uncertainty. BME is therefore perfectly suitable to assess model quality under uncertainty. We will explain in detail and with schematic illustrations what BME measures, i.e. how complexity is defined in the Bayesian setting and how this complexity is balanced with goodness of fit. We will further discuss how BME compares to other model evaluation metrics that address accuracy and precision such as the predictive logscore or other model selection criteria such as the AIC, BIC or KIC. Although computationally more expensive than other metrics or criteria, BME represents an appealing alternative because it provides a global measure of model quality. Even if not applicable to each and every case, we aim

  2. Evaluating model accuracy for model-based reasoning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chien, Steve; Roden, Joseph

    1992-01-01

    Described here is an approach to automatically assessing the accuracy of various components of a model. In this approach, actual data from the operation of a target system is used to drive statistical measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various portions of the model. We describe how these statistical measures of model accuracy can be used in model-based reasoning for monitoring and design. We then describe the application of these techniques to the monitoring and design of the water recovery system of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) of Space Station Freedom.

  3. Two models for evaluating landslide hazards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, J.C.; Chung, C.-J.; Ohlmacher, G.C.

    2006-01-01

    Two alternative procedures for estimating landslide hazards were evaluated using data on topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) and bedrock lithologies in an area adjacent to the Missouri River in Atchison County, Kansas, USA. The two procedures are based on the likelihood ratio model but utilize different assumptions. The empirical likelihood ratio model is based on non-parametric empirical univariate frequency distribution functions under an assumption of conditional independence while the multivariate logistic discriminant model assumes that likelihood ratios can be expressed in terms of logistic functions. The relative hazards of occurrence of landslides were estimated by an empirical likelihood ratio model and by multivariate logistic discriminant analysis. Predictor variables consisted of grids containing topographic elevations, slope angles, and slope aspects calculated from a 30-m DEM. An integer grid of coded bedrock lithologies taken from digitized geologic maps was also used as a predictor variable. Both statistical models yield relative estimates in the form of the proportion of total map area predicted to already contain or to be the site of future landslides. The stabilities of estimates were checked by cross-validation of results from random subsamples, using each of the two procedures. Cell-by-cell comparisons of hazard maps made by the two models show that the two sets of estimates are virtually identical. This suggests that the empirical likelihood ratio and the logistic discriminant analysis models are robust with respect to the conditional independent assumption and the logistic function assumption, respectively, and that either model can be used successfully to evaluate landslide hazards. ?? 2006.

  4. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    SciTech Connect

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  5. Automated Expert Modeling and Student Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2012-09-12

    AEMASE searches a database of recorded events for combinations of events that are of interest. It compares matching combinations to a statistical model to determine similarity to previous events of interest and alerts the user as new matching examples are found. AEMASE is currently used by weapons tactics instructors to find situations of interest in recorded tactical training scenarios. AEMASE builds on a sub-component, the Relational Blackboard (RBB), which is being released as open-source software. AEMASE builds on RBB adding interactive expert model construction (automated knowledge capture) and re-evaluation of scenario data.

  6. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  7. An Evaluation of Software Cost Estimating Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATING Sep 73- Oct 79 MODELS. R14- --. R IOTNME 7. AUTHOR (.) * ce.4 **CT OR GRANT NUMBER(C.’ * ~ Robert Thibodeau K 1 F30602...review of the draft DCP begins, the program can be terminated with the approval of the highest command level which authorized it. Once DSARC review begins...concert with many other elements. Initially, we might speak of the navigation subsystem and its functions. Later, we would describe the alignment element

  8. Mesoscale Wind Predictions for Wave Model Evaluation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-07

    contains the following components for atmospheric analysis and prediction : complex data quality control ; a multivariate optimum interpolation analysis...subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30...SEP 1999 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-1999 to 00-00-1999 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Mesoscale Wind Predictions for Wave Model Evaluation

  9. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of Community Land Model Hydrologic Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. Y.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Bohn, T.; Delire, C.

    2005-12-01

    Confidence in representation and parameterization of land surface processes in coupled land-atmosphere models is strongly dependent on a diversity of opportunities for model testing, since such coupled models are usually intended for application in a wide range of conditions (regional models) or globally. Land surface models have been increasing in complexity over the past decade, which has increased the demands on data sets appropriate for model testing and evaluation. In this study, we compare the performance of two commonly used land surface schemes - the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Community Land Model (CLM) with respect to their ability to reproduce observed water and energy fluxes in off-line tests for two large river basins with contrasting hydroclimatic conditions spanning the range from temperate continental to arctic, and for five point (column flux) sites spanning the range from tropical to arctic. The two large river basins are the Arkansas-Red in U.S. southern Great Plains, and the Torne-Kalix in northern Scandinavia. The column flux evaluations are for a tropical forest site at Reserva Jaru (ABRACOS) in Brazil, a prairie site (FIFE) near Manhattan, Kansas in the central U.S., a soybean site at Caumont (HAPEX-Monbilhy) in France, a meadow site at Cabauw in the Netherlands, and a small grassland catchment at Valday, Russia. The results indicate that VIC can reasonably well capture the land surface biophysical processes, while CLM is somewhat less successful. We suggest changes to the CLM parameterizations that would improve its general performance with respect to its representation of land surface hydrologic processes.

  11. An Evaluation of Regionalized Models for Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalcic, H.; Laske, G.

    2002-12-01

    This study evaluates recently developed regionalized models of the crust and upper mantle for Western Eurasia and Northern Africa. Such models are typically used in the CTBT effort to improve event location in regions of political interest, to model wave propagation of regional phases and to correct seismic data for the crustal contribution. We examine the SAIC model 1.0 (Bondar, 2000), the LLNL model MENA1.1 (Walter et al., 2000) and global crustal models CRUST5.1 (Mooney et al., 1998) and CRUST2.0 (Bassin et al., 2000). These models use a relatively limited number of crustal types to describe lateral variations in structure. We investigate the feasibility of using such simple models to represent crucial parameters of the true Earth, such as crustal and sediment thickness, without a great loss of accuracy. To test this, we use the 1x1 degree digital sediment thickness map of Laske and Masters (1997) and a newly compiled 1x1 crustal thickness map as references models. In general, we find good agreement between the crustal thickness reference map and the regionalized models MENA1.1 and SAIC1.0, but significant disagreement can occur in the sediment thickness. We also identify errors in CRUST5.1. We conclude that, in contrast to crustal thickness, sediment thickness cannot be categorized using tectonic setting or basement age as criteria. We also test how accurately the regionalized models predict seismic data. We compare model predictions with observed surface wave phase and group velocity maps. For each region categorized in the models, we examine histograms of the data and compare the average dispersion values with the model predictions. This comparison confirms that some regions require a change in the structure specified and/or an additional subdivision of this region. Some regions appear quite complex, perhaps inhibiting a simple regionalization altogether. Our results show that simple crustal models may oversimplify the structure of the real Earth which can

  12. User's appraisal of yield model evaluation criteria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warren, F. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    The five major potential USDA users of AgRISTAR crop yield forecast models rated the Yield Model Development (YMD) project Test and Evaluation Criteria by the importance placed on them. These users were agreed that the "TIMELINES" and "RELIABILITY" of the forecast yields would be of major importance in determining if a proposed yield model was worthy of adoption. Although there was considerable difference of opinion as to the relative importance of the other criteria, "COST", "OBJECTIVITY", "ADEQUACY", AND "MEASURES OF ACCURACY" generally were felt to be more important that "SIMPLICITY" and "CONSISTENCY WITH SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE". However, some of the comments which accompanied the ratings did indicate that several of the definitions and descriptions of the criteria were confusing.

  13. Evaluation of a mallard productivity model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Cowardin, L.M.; Sparling, D.W.; Verner, J.; Morrison, L.M.; Ralph, C.J.

    1986-01-01

    A stochastic model of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) productivity has been developed over a 10-year period and successfully applied to several management questions. Here we review the model and describe some recent uses and improvements that increase its realism and applicability, including naturally occurring changes in wetland habitat, catastrophic weather events, and the migrational homing of mallards. The amount of wetland habitat influenced productivity primarily by affecting the renesting rate. Late snowstorms severely reduced productivity, whereas the loss of nests due to flooding was largely compensated for by increased renesting, often in habitats where hatching rates were better. Migrational homing was shown to be an important phenomenon in population modeling and should be considered when evaluating management plans.

  14. Diagnosis code assignment: models and evaluation metrics.

    PubMed

    Perotte, Adler; Pivovarov, Rimma; Natarajan, Karthik; Weiskopf, Nicole; Wood, Frank; Elhadad, Noémie

    2014-01-01

    The volume of healthcare data is growing rapidly with the adoption of health information technology. We focus on automated ICD9 code assignment from discharge summary content and methods for evaluating such assignments. We study ICD9 diagnosis codes and discharge summaries from the publicly available Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC II) repository. We experiment with two coding approaches: one that treats each ICD9 code independently of each other (flat classifier), and one that leverages the hierarchical nature of ICD9 codes into its modeling (hierarchy-based classifier). We propose novel evaluation metrics, which reflect the distances among gold-standard and predicted codes and their locations in the ICD9 tree. Experimental setup, code for modeling, and evaluation scripts are made available to the research community. The hierarchy-based classifier outperforms the flat classifier with F-measures of 39.5% and 27.6%, respectively, when trained on 20,533 documents and tested on 2282 documents. While recall is improved at the expense of precision, our novel evaluation metrics show a more refined assessment: for instance, the hierarchy-based classifier identifies the correct sub-tree of gold-standard codes more often than the flat classifier. Error analysis reveals that gold-standard codes are not perfect, and as such the recall and precision are likely underestimated. Hierarchy-based classification yields better ICD9 coding than flat classification for MIMIC patients. Automated ICD9 coding is an example of a task for which data and tools can be shared and for which the research community can work together to build on shared models and advance the state of the art.

  15. Diagnosis code assignment: models and evaluation metrics

    PubMed Central

    Perotte, Adler; Pivovarov, Rimma; Natarajan, Karthik; Weiskopf, Nicole; Wood, Frank; Elhadad, Noémie

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective The volume of healthcare data is growing rapidly with the adoption of health information technology. We focus on automated ICD9 code assignment from discharge summary content and methods for evaluating such assignments. Methods We study ICD9 diagnosis codes and discharge summaries from the publicly available Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC II) repository. We experiment with two coding approaches: one that treats each ICD9 code independently of each other (flat classifier), and one that leverages the hierarchical nature of ICD9 codes into its modeling (hierarchy-based classifier). We propose novel evaluation metrics, which reflect the distances among gold-standard and predicted codes and their locations in the ICD9 tree. Experimental setup, code for modeling, and evaluation scripts are made available to the research community. Results The hierarchy-based classifier outperforms the flat classifier with F-measures of 39.5% and 27.6%, respectively, when trained on 20 533 documents and tested on 2282 documents. While recall is improved at the expense of precision, our novel evaluation metrics show a more refined assessment: for instance, the hierarchy-based classifier identifies the correct sub-tree of gold-standard codes more often than the flat classifier. Error analysis reveals that gold-standard codes are not perfect, and as such the recall and precision are likely underestimated. Conclusions Hierarchy-based classification yields better ICD9 coding than flat classification for MIMIC patients. Automated ICD9 coding is an example of a task for which data and tools can be shared and for which the research community can work together to build on shared models and advance the state of the art. PMID:24296907

  16. Training Module on the Evaluation of Best Modeling Practices

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Building upon the fundamental concepts outlined in previous modules, the objectives of this module are to explore the topic of model evaluation and identify the 'best modeling practices' and strategies for the Evaluation Stage of the model life-cycle.

  17. Hazardous gas model evaluation with field observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanna, S. R.; Chang, J. C.; Strimaitis, D. G.

    Fifteen hazardous gas models were evaluated using data from eight field experiments. The models include seven publicly available models (AFTOX, DEGADIS, HEGADAS, HGSYSTEM, INPUFF, OB/DG and SLAB), six proprietary models (AIRTOX, CHARM, FOCUS, GASTAR, PHAST and TRACE), and two "benchmark" analytical models (the Gaussian Plume Model and the analytical approximations to the Britter and McQuaid Workbook nomograms). The field data were divided into three groups—continuous dense gas releases (Burro LNG, Coyote LNG, Desert Tortoise NH 3-gas and aerosols, Goldfish HF-gas and aerosols, and Maplin Sands LNG), continuous passive gas releases (Prairie Grass and Hanford), and instantaneous dense gas releases (Thorney Island freon). The dense gas models that produced the most consistent predictions of plume centerline concentrations across the dense gas data sets are the Britter and McQuaid, CHARM, GASTAR, HEGADAS, HGSYSTEM, PHAST, SLAB and TRACE models, with relative mean biases of about ±30% or less and magnitudes of relative scatter that are about equal to the mean. The dense gas models tended to overpredict the plume widths and underpredict the plume depths by about a factor of two. All models except GASTAR, TRACE, and the area source version of DEGADIS perform fairly well with the continuous passive gas data sets. Some sensitivity studies were also carried out. It was found that three of the more widely used publicly-available dense gas models (DEGADIS, HGSYSTEM and SLAB) predicted increases in concentration of about 70% as roughness length decreased by an order of magnitude for the Desert Tortoise and Goldfish field studies. It was also found that none of the dense gas models that were considered came close to simulating the observed factor of two increase in peak concentrations as averaging time decreased from several minutes to 1 s. Because of their assumption that a concentrated dense gas core existed that was unaffected by variations in averaging time, the dense gas

  18. A Formulation of the Interactive Evaluation Model

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, Peter J.; Awad-Edwards, Roger; Engelhardt, K. G.; Perkash, Inder

    1985-01-01

    The development of highly technical devices for specialized users requires continual feedback from potential users to the project team designing the device to assure that a useful product will result. This necessity for user input is the basis for the Interactive Evaluation Model which has been applied to complex computer assisted robotic aids for individuals with disabilities and has wide application to the development of a variety of technical devices. We present a preliminary mathematical formulation of the Interactive Evaluation Model which maximizes the rate of growth toward success, at a constant cost rate, of the efforts of a team having the diverse expertises needed to produce a complex technical product. Close interaction is simulated by a growth rate which is a multiplicative product involving the number of participants within a given class of necessary expertise and evaluation is included by demanding that users form one of the necessary classes. In the multipliers, the number of class participants is raised to a power termed the class weight exponent. In the simplest case, the optimum participant number varies as the ratio of the class weight exponent to the average class cost. An illustrative example, based on our experience with medical care assistive aids, shows the dramatic cost reduction possible with users on the team.

  19. [Systemic-psychodynamic model for family evaluation].

    PubMed

    Salinas, J L; Pérez, M P; Viniegra, L; Armando Barriguete, J; Casillas, J; Valencia, A

    1992-01-01

    In this paper a family evaluation instrument called systemic-psychodynamic family evaluation model is described. Also, the second stage of the validation study of this instrument is presented (which deals with the inter-observers variation). Twenty families were studied. They were assessed always by the same interviewers designated as experts. They are all family therapy specialists and their assessment was used as the evaluation reference standard or "gold standard". The observers were psychiatrists without previous training in family therapy. For the purpose of the interview, both experts and observers were blind to the medical diagnosis of the patients. During the first stage of the validation study the observers did not have a reference guide which resulted in a low concordance rating. For the second stage, a 177 item guide was used and a considerable increase in the concordance rating was observed. Validation studies like the one used here are of considerable value to increase the reliability and further utilisation of evaluation instruments of this type.

  20. Model fit evaluation in multilevel structural equation models

    PubMed Central

    Ryu, Ehri

    2014-01-01

    Assessing goodness of model fit is one of the key questions in structural equation modeling (SEM). Goodness of fit is the extent to which the hypothesized model reproduces the multivariate structure underlying the set of variables. During the earlier development of multilevel structural equation models, the “standard” approach was to evaluate the goodness of fit for the entire model across all levels simultaneously. The model fit statistics produced by the standard approach have a potential problem in detecting lack of fit in the higher-level model for which the effective sample size is much smaller. Also when the standard approach results in poor model fit, it is not clear at which level the model does not fit well. This article reviews two alternative approaches that have been proposed to overcome the limitations of the standard approach. One is a two-step procedure which first produces estimates of saturated covariance matrices at each level and then performs single-level analysis at each level with the estimated covariance matrices as input (Yuan and Bentler, 2007). The other level-specific approach utilizes partially saturated models to obtain test statistics and fit indices for each level separately (Ryu and West, 2009). Simulation studies (e.g., Yuan and Bentler, 2007; Ryu and West, 2009) have consistently shown that both alternative approaches performed well in detecting lack of fit at any level, whereas the standard approach failed to detect lack of fit at the higher level. It is recommended that the alternative approaches are used to assess the model fit in multilevel structural equation model. Advantages and disadvantages of the two alternative approaches are discussed. The alternative approaches are demonstrated in an empirical example. PMID:24550882

  1. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach.

    PubMed

    Todorov, Alexander; Baron, Sean G; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N

    2008-06-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study (study 2). Although participants did not engage in explicit evaluation of the faces, the amygdala response changed as a function of face trustworthiness. An area in the right amygdala showed a negative linear response-as the untrustworthiness of faces increased so did the amygdala response. Areas in the left and right putamen, the latter area extended into the anterior insula, showed a similar negative linear response. The response in the left amygdala was quadratic--strongest for faces on both extremes of the trustworthiness dimension. The medial prefrontal cortex and precuneus also showed a quadratic response, but their response was strongest to faces in the middle range of the trustworthiness dimension.

  2. Evaluating face trustworthiness: a model based approach

    PubMed Central

    Baron, Sean G.; Oosterhof, Nikolaas N.

    2008-01-01

    Judgments of trustworthiness from faces determine basic approach/avoidance responses and approximate the valence evaluation of faces that runs across multiple person judgments. Here, based on trustworthiness judgments and using a computer model for face representation, we built a model for representing face trustworthiness (study 1). Using this model, we generated novel faces with an increased range of trustworthiness and used these faces as stimuli in a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging study (study 2). Although participants did not engage in explicit evaluation of the faces, the amygdala response changed as a function of face trustworthiness. An area in the right amygdala showed a negative linear response—as the untrustworthiness of faces increased so did the amygdala response. Areas in the left and right putamen, the latter area extended into the anterior insula, showed a similar negative linear response. The response in the left amygdala was quadratic—strongest for faces on both extremes of the trustworthiness dimension. The medial prefrontal cortex and precuneus also showed a quadratic response, but their response was strongest to faces in the middle range of the trustworthiness dimension. PMID:19015102

  3. Pasteur Institute of Iran- An Evaluation Model

    PubMed Central

    Dejman, Masoumeh; Habibi, Elham; Baradarn Eftekhari, Monir; Falahat, Katayoun; Malekafzali, Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Background: Pasteur Institute of Iran was established in 1919 with the aim to produce vaccines and prevent communicable diseases in Iran. Over time, their activities extended into areas of research, education and services. Naturally, such a vast development begs establishment of a comprehensive management and monitoring system. With this outlook, the present study was carried out with the aim to design a performance assessment model for Pasteur Institute of Iran that, in addition to determining evaluation indicators, it could prepare the necessary grounds for providing a unified assessment model for the global network of the Pasteur Institutes. Method: This study was designed and performed in 4 stages: first; design of indicators and determining their scores. Second; editing indicators according to the outcome of discussions and debates held with members of Research Council of Pasteur Institute of Iran. Third; implementation of a pilot model based on the Institute’s activities in 2011. Fourth; providing the pilot model feedback to the stakeholders and finalizing the model according to an opinion survey. Results: Based on the results obtained, the developed indicators for Pasteur Institute of Iran evaluation were designed in 10 axes and 18 sub-axes, which included 101 major and 58 minor indicators. The axes included governance and leadership, resources and facilities, capacity building, knowledge production and collaborations, reference services, economic value of products and services, participation in industrial exhibitions, status of the institute, satisfaction and institute’s role in health promotion. Conclusion: The indicators presented in this article have been prepared based on the balance in the Institute’s four missions, to provide the basis for assessment of the Institute’s activities in consecutive years, and possibility of comparison with other institutes worldwide. PMID:24842146

  4. Evaluating Model Misspecification in Independent Component Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Seonjoo; Caffo, Brian S.; Lakshmanan, Balaji; Pham, Dzung L.

    2014-01-01

    Independent component analysis (ICA) is a popular blind source separation technique used in many scientific disciplines. Current ICA approaches have focused on developing efficient algorithms under specific ICA models, such as instantaneous or convolutive mixing conditions, intrinsically assuming temporal independence or autocorrelation of the sources. In practice, the true model is not known and different ICA algorithms can produce very different results. Although it is critical to choose an ICA model, there has not been enough research done on evaluating mixing models and assumptions, and how the associated algorithms may perform under different scenarios. In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple ICA algorithms under various mixing conditions. We also propose a convolutive ICA algorithm for echoic mixing cases. Our simulation studies show that the performance of ICA algorithms is highly dependent on mixing conditions and temporal independence of the sources. Most instantaneous ICA algorithms fail to separate autocorrelated sources, while convolutive ICA algorithms depend highly on the model specification and approximation accuracy of unmixing filters. PMID:25642002

  5. Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment Datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, Chung-Chieng A.; Qian, Wen; Glenn, Scott M.

    1994-05-01

    The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMÉE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets.The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: 1)collection of observational data; 2) analysis and interpretation; 3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; 4) quality control and re-analysis; and 5) data archiving and software documentation.The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement.Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include 1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, 2) diagnosis and theorectical studies, and 3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

  6. Evaluation of models of waste glass durability

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, A.

    1995-08-01

    The main variable under the control of the waste glass producer is the composition of the glass; thus a need exists to establish functional relationships between the composition of a waste glass and measures of processability, product consistency, and durability. Many years of research show that the structure and properties of a glass depend on its composition, so it seems reasonable to assume that there also is relationship between the composition of a waste glass and its resistance to attack by an aqueous solution. Several models have been developed to describe this dependence, and an evaluation their predictive capabilities is the subject of this paper. The objective is to determine whether any of these models describe the ``correct`` functional relationship between composition and corrosion rate. A more thorough treatment of the relationships between glass composition and durability has been presented elsewhere, and the reader is encouraged to consult it for a more detailed discussion. The models examined in this study are the free energy of hydration model, developed at the Savannah River Laboratory, the structural bond strength model, developed at the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America, and the Composition Variation Study, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory.

  7. Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lai, Chung-Cheng A.; Qian, Wen; Glenn, Scott M.

    1994-01-01

    The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

  8. Evaluating conflation methods using uncertainty modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doucette, Peter; Dolloff, John; Canavosio-Zuzelski, Roberto; Lenihan, Michael; Motsko, Dennis

    2013-05-01

    The classic problem of computer-assisted conflation involves the matching of individual features (e.g., point, polyline, or polygon vectors) as stored in a geographic information system (GIS), between two different sets (layers) of features. The classical goal of conflation is the transfer of feature metadata (attributes) from one layer to another. The age of free public and open source geospatial feature data has significantly increased the opportunity to conflate such data to create enhanced products. There are currently several spatial conflation tools in the marketplace with varying degrees of automation. An ability to evaluate conflation tool performance quantitatively is of operational value, although manual truthing of matched features is laborious and costly. In this paper, we present a novel methodology that uses spatial uncertainty modeling to simulate realistic feature layers to streamline evaluation of feature matching performance for conflation methods. Performance results are compiled for DCGIS street centerline features.

  9. Acceptance criteria for urban dispersion model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanna, Steven; Chang, Joseph

    2012-05-01

    The authors suggested acceptance criteria for rural dispersion models' performance measures in this journal in 2004. The current paper suggests modified values of acceptance criteria for urban applications and tests them with tracer data from four urban field experiments. For the arc-maximum concentrations, the fractional bias should have a magnitude <0.67 (i.e., the relative mean bias is less than a factor of 2); the normalized mean-square error should be <6 (i.e., the random scatter is less than about 2.4 times the mean); and the fraction of predictions that are within a factor of two of the observations (FAC2) should be >0.3. For all data paired in space, for which a threshold concentration must always be defined, the normalized absolute difference should be <0.50, when the threshold is three times the instrument's limit of quantification (LOQ). An overall criterion is then applied that the total set of acceptance criteria should be satisfied in at least half of the field experiments. These acceptance criteria are applied to evaluations of the US Department of Defense's Joint Effects Model (JEM) with tracer data from US urban field experiments in Salt Lake City (U2000), Oklahoma City (JU2003), and Manhattan (MSG05 and MID05). JEM includes the SCIPUFF dispersion model with the urban canopy option and the urban dispersion model (UDM) option. In each set of evaluations, three or four likely options are tested for meteorological inputs (e.g., a local building top wind speed, the closest National Weather Service airport observations, or outputs from numerical weather prediction models). It is found that, due to large natural variability in the urban data, there is not a large difference between the performance measures for the two model options and the three or four meteorological input options. The more detailed UDM and the state-of-the-art numerical weather models do provide a slight improvement over the other options. The proposed urban dispersion model acceptance

  10. Modelling approaches for evaluating multiscale tendon mechanics

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Fei; Lake, Spencer P.

    2016-01-01

    Tendon exhibits anisotropic, inhomogeneous and viscoelastic mechanical properties that are determined by its complicated hierarchical structure and varying amounts/organization of different tissue constituents. Although extensive research has been conducted to use modelling approaches to interpret tendon structure–function relationships in combination with experimental data, many issues remain unclear (i.e. the role of minor components such as decorin, aggrecan and elastin), and the integration of mechanical analysis across different length scales has not been well applied to explore stress or strain transfer from macro- to microscale. This review outlines mathematical and computational models that have been used to understand tendon mechanics at different scales of the hierarchical organization. Model representations at the molecular, fibril and tissue levels are discussed, including formulations that follow phenomenological and microstructural approaches (which include evaluations of crimp, helical structure and the interaction between collagen fibrils and proteoglycans). Multiscale modelling approaches incorporating tendon features are suggested to be an advantageous methodology to understand further the physiological mechanical response of tendon and corresponding adaptation of properties owing to unique in vivo loading environments. PMID:26855747

  11. CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Edenburn, M.W.; Bunting, M.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1997-10-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

  12. Two criteria for evaluating risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, R M; Gail, M H

    2011-09-01

    We propose and study two criteria to assess the usefulness of models that predict risk of disease incidence for screening and prevention, or the usefulness of prognostic models for management following disease diagnosis. The first criterion, the proportion of cases followed PCF (q), is the proportion of individuals who will develop disease who are included in the proportion q of individuals in the population at highest risk. The second criterion is the proportion needed to follow-up, PNF (p), namely the proportion of the general population at highest risk that one needs to follow in order that a proportion p of those destined to become cases will be followed. PCF (q) assesses the effectiveness of a program that follows 100q% of the population at highest risk. PNF (p) assess the feasibility of covering 100p% of cases by indicating how much of the population at highest risk must be followed. We show the relationship of those two criteria to the Lorenz curve and its inverse, and present distribution theory for estimates of PCF and PNF. We develop new methods, based on influence functions, for inference for a single risk model, and also for comparing the PCFs and PNFs of two risk models, both of which were evaluated in the same validation data.

  13. An evaluation framework for participatory modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krueger, T.; Inman, A.; Chilvers, J.

    2012-04-01

    Strong arguments for participatory modelling in hydrology can be made on substantive, instrumental and normative grounds. These arguments have led to increasingly diverse groups of stakeholders (here anyone affecting or affected by an issue) getting involved in hydrological research and the management of water resources. In fact, participation has become a requirement of many research grants, programs, plans and policies. However, evidence of beneficial outcomes of participation as suggested by the arguments is difficult to generate and therefore rare. This is because outcomes are diverse, distributed, often tacit, and take time to emerge. In this paper we develop an evaluation framework for participatory modelling focussed on learning outcomes. Learning encompasses many of the potential benefits of participation, such as better models through diversity of knowledge and scrutiny, stakeholder empowerment, greater trust in models and ownership of subsequent decisions, individual moral development, reflexivity, relationships, social capital, institutional change, resilience and sustainability. Based on the theories of experiential, transformative and social learning, complemented by practitioner experience our framework examines if, when and how learning has occurred. Special emphasis is placed on the role of models as learning catalysts. We map the distribution of learning between stakeholders, scientists (as a subgroup of stakeholders) and models. And we analyse what type of learning has occurred: instrumental learning (broadly cognitive enhancement) and/or communicative learning (change in interpreting meanings, intentions and values associated with actions and activities; group dynamics). We demonstrate how our framework can be translated into a questionnaire-based survey conducted with stakeholders and scientists at key stages of the participatory process, and show preliminary insights from applying the framework within a rural pollution management situation in

  14. Performance Evaluation Modeling of Network Sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clare, Loren P.; Jennings, Esther H.; Gao, Jay L.

    2003-01-01

    Substantial benefits are promised by operating many spatially separated sensors collectively. Such systems are envisioned to consist of sensor nodes that are connected by a communications network. A simulation tool is being developed to evaluate the performance of networked sensor systems, incorporating such metrics as target detection probabilities, false alarms rates, and classification confusion probabilities. The tool will be used to determine configuration impacts associated with such aspects as spatial laydown, and mixture of different types of sensors (acoustic, seismic, imaging, magnetic, RF, etc.), and fusion architecture. The QualNet discrete-event simulation environment serves as the underlying basis for model development and execution. This platform is recognized for its capabilities in efficiently simulating networking among mobile entities that communicate via wireless media. We are extending QualNet's communications modeling constructs to capture the sensing aspects of multi-target sensing (analogous to multiple access communications), unimodal multi-sensing (broadcast), and multi-modal sensing (multiple channels and correlated transmissions). Methods are also being developed for modeling the sensor signal sources (transmitters), signal propagation through the media, and sensors (receivers) that are consistent with the discrete event paradigm needed for performance determination of sensor network systems. This work is supported under the Microsensors Technical Area of the Army Research Laboratory (ARL) Advanced Sensors Collaborative Technology Alliance.

  15. Biological Modeling As A Method for Data Evaluation and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Biological Models, evaluating consistency of data and integrating diverse data, examples of pharmacokinetics and response and pharmacodynamics Biological Models, evaluating consistency of data and integrating diverse data, examples of pharmacokinetics and response and pharmacodynamics

  16. Moisture evaluation by dynamic thermography data modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bison, Paolo G.; Grinzato, Ermanno G.; Marinetti, Sergio

    1994-03-01

    This paper discusses the design of a nondestructive method for in situ detection of moistened areas in buildings and the evaluation of the water content in porous materials by thermographic analysis. The use of heat transfer model to interpret data allows to improve the measurement accuracy taking into account the actual boundary conditions. The relative increase of computation time is balanced by the additional advantage to optimize the testing procedure of different objects simulating the heat transfer. Experimental results on bricks used in building for restoration activities, are discussed. The water content measured in different hygrometric conditions is compared with known values. A correction on the absorptivity coefficient dependent on water content is introduced.

  17. ZATPAC: a model consortium evaluates teen programs.

    PubMed

    Owen, Kathryn; Murphy, Dana; Parsons, Chris

    2009-09-01

    How do we advance the environmental literacy of young people, support the next generation of environmental stewards and increase the diversity of the leadership of zoos and aquariums? We believe it is through ongoing evaluation of zoo and aquarium teen programming and have founded a consortium to pursue those goals. The Zoo and Aquarium Teen Program Assessment Consortium (ZATPAC) is an initiative by six of the nation's leading zoos and aquariums to strengthen institutional evaluation capacity, model a collaborative approach toward assessing the impact of youth programs, and bring additional rigor to evaluation efforts within the field of informal science education. Since its beginning in 2004, ZATPAC has researched, developed, pilot-tested and implemented a pre-post program survey instrument designed to assess teens' knowledge of environmental issues, skills and abilities to take conservation actions, self-efficacy in environmental actions, and engagement in environmentally responsible behaviors. Findings from this survey indicate that teens who join zoo/aquarium programs are already actively engaged in many conservation behaviors. After participating in the programs, teens showed a statistically significant increase in their reported knowledge of conservation and environmental issues and their abilities to research, explain, and find resources to take action on conservation issues of personal concern. Teens also showed statistically significant increases pre-program to post-program for various conservation behaviors, including "I talk with my family and/or friends about things they can do to help the animals or the environment," "I save water...," "I save energy...," "When I am shopping I look for recycled products," and "I help with projects that restore wildlife habitat."

  18. Evaluating models of healthcare delivery using the Model of Care Evaluation Tool (MCET).

    PubMed

    Hudspeth, Randall S; Vogt, Marjorie; Wysocki, Ken; Pittman, Oralea; Smith, Susan; Cooke, Cindy; Dello Stritto, Rita; Hoyt, Karen Sue; Merritt, T Jeanne

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to provide the outcome of a structured Model of Care (MoC) Evaluation Tool (MCET), developed by an FAANP Best-practices Workgroup, that can be used to guide the evaluation of existing MoCs being considered for use in clinical practice. Multiple MoCs are available, but deciding which model of health care delivery to use can be confusing. This five-component tool provides a structured assessment approach to model selection and has universal application. A literature review using CINAHL, PubMed, Ovid, and EBSCO was conducted. The MCET evaluation process includes five sequential components with a feedback loop from component 5 back to component 3 for reevaluation of any refinements. The components are as follows: (1) Background, (2) Selection of an MoC, (3) Implementation, (4) Evaluation, and (5) Sustainability and Future Refinement. This practical resource considers an evidence-based approach to use in determining the best model to implement based on need, stakeholder considerations, and feasibility. ©2015 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

  19. Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred

    2006-01-01

    Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one

  20. A Model for the Evaluation of Educational Products.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bertram, Charles L.

    A model for the evaluation of educational products based on experience with development of three such products is described. The purpose of the evaluation model is to indicate the flow of evaluation activity as products undergo development. Evaluation is given Stufflebeam's definition as the process of delineating, obtaining, and providing useful…

  1. A Model for Evaluating Student Clinical Psychomotor Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    And Others; Fiel, Nicholas J.

    1979-01-01

    A long-range plan to evaluate medical students' physical examination skills was undertaken at the Ingham Family Medical Clinic at Michigan State University. The development of the psychomotor skills evaluation model to evaluate the skill of blood pressure measurement, tests of the model's reliability, and the use of the model are described. (JMD)

  2. An Integrated Model of Training Evaluation and Effectiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvarez, Kaye; Salas, Eduardo; Garofano, Christina M.

    2004-01-01

    A decade of training evaluation and training effectiveness research was reviewed to construct an integrated model of training evaluation and effectiveness. This model integrates four prior evaluation models and results of 10 years of training effectiveness research. It is the first to be constructed using a set of strict criteria and to…

  3. Treatment modalities and evaluation models for periodontitis

    PubMed Central

    Tariq, Mohammad; Iqbal, Zeenat; Ali, Javed; Baboota, Sanjula; Talegaonkar, Sushama; Ahmad, Zulfiqar; Sahni, Jasjeet K

    2012-01-01

    Periodontitis is the most common localized dental inflammatory disease related with several pathological conditions like inflammation of gums (gingivitis), degeneration of periodontal ligament, dental cementum and alveolar bone loss. In this perspective, the various preventive and treatment modalities, including oral hygiene, gingival irrigations, mechanical instrumentation, full mouth disinfection, host modulation and antimicrobial therapy, which are used either as adjunctive treatments or as stand-alone therapies in the non-surgical management of periodontal infections, have been discussed. Intra-pocket, sustained release systems have emerged as a novel paradigm for the future research. In this article, special consideration is given to different locally delivered anti-microbial and anti inflammatory medications which are either commercially available or are currently under consideration for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. The various in vitro dissolution models and microbiological strain investigated to impersonate the infected and inflamed periodontal cavity and to predict the in vivo performance of treatment modalities have also been thrashed out. Animal models that have been employed to explore the pathology at the different stages of periodontitis and to evaluate its treatment modalities are enlightened in this proposed review. PMID:23373002

  4. Evaluation of clinical information modeling tools.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Austin, Tony; Moreno-Conde, Jesús; Parra-Calderón, Carlos L; Kalra, Dipak

    2016-11-01

    Clinical information models are formal specifications for representing the structure and semantics of the clinical content within electronic health record systems. This research aims to define, test, and validate evaluation metrics for software tools designed to support the processes associated with the definition, management, and implementation of these models. The proposed framework builds on previous research that focused on obtaining agreement on the essential requirements in this area. A set of 50 conformance criteria were defined based on the 20 functional requirements agreed by that consensus and applied to evaluate the currently available tools. Of the 11 initiative developing tools for clinical information modeling identified, 9 were evaluated according to their performance on the evaluation metrics. Results show that functionalities related to management of data types, specifications, metadata, and terminology or ontology bindings have a good level of adoption. Improvements can be made in other areas focused on information modeling and associated processes. Other criteria related to displaying semantic relationships between concepts and communication with terminology servers had low levels of adoption. The proposed evaluation metrics were successfully tested and validated against a representative sample of existing tools. The results identify the need to improve tool support for information modeling and software development processes, especially in those areas related to governance, clinician involvement, and optimizing the technical validation of testing processes. This research confirmed the potential of these evaluation metrics to support decision makers in identifying the most appropriate tool for their organization. Los Modelos de Información Clínica son especificaciones para representar la estructura y características semánticas del contenido clínico en los sistemas de Historia Clínica Electrónica. Esta investigación define, prueba y valida

  5. A Multidisciplinary Model of Evaluation Capacity Building

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preskill, Hallie; Boyle, Shanelle

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation capacity building (ECB) has become a hot topic of conversation, activity, and study within the evaluation field. Seeking to enhance stakeholders' understanding of evaluation concepts and practices, and in an effort to create evaluation cultures, organizations have been implementing a variety of strategies to help their members learn…

  6. Evaluation of the ecotoxicity of model nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Barrena, Raquel; Casals, Eudald; Colón, Joan; Font, Xavier; Sánchez, Antoni; Puntes, Víctor

    2009-05-01

    Since society at large became aware of the use of nanomaterials in ever growing quantities in consumer products and their presence in the environment, critical interest in the impact of this emerging technology has grown. The main concern is whether the unknown risks of engineered nanoparticles (NPs), in particular their impact on health and environment, outweighs their established benefits for society. Therefore, a key issue in this field is to evaluate their potential toxicity. In this context we evaluated the effects on plants and microorganisms of model nanoparticles, in particular of a stable metal (Au, 10nm mean diameter), a well-known bactericide (Ag, 2 nm mean diameter) and the broadly used Fe(3)O(4) (7 nm mean diameter). The toxicity of these nanoparticles was assayed using standard toxicity tests. Specifically, germination (cucumber and lettuce), bioluminescent (Photobacterium phosphoreum) and anaerobic toxicity tests were performed. Germination tests were conducted at a NP dose of 62, 100 and 116 microg mL(-1) for Au, Ag, and Fe(3)O(4), respectively. The bioluminscent testing (P. phosphoreum) was conducted at a dose of 28, 45 and 52 microg mL(-1) for Au, Ag, and Fe(3)O(4), respectively. Finally, anaerobic tests were conducted at a NP dose of 10, 16 and 18 microg mL(-1) for Au, Ag, and Fe(3)O(4), respectively. In all cases low or zero toxicity was observed. However, some perturbation of the normal functions with respect to controls in germinating tests was observed, suggesting the necessity for further research in this field. At the same time, the effect of NP-solvents was sometimes more significant than that of the NPs themselves, a point that is of special interest for future nanotoxicological studies.

  7. Report of the Inter-Organizational Committee on Evaluation. Internal Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Roy; Murray, John

    Based upon the premise that school divisions in Manitoba, Canada, should evaluate and improve upon themselves, this evaluation model was developed. The participating personnel and the development of the evaluation model are described. The model has 11 parts: (1) needs assessment; (2) statement of objectives; (3) definition of objectives; (4)…

  8. Report of the Inter-Organizational Committee on Evaluation. Internal Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Roy; Murray, John

    Based upon the premise that school divisions in Manitoba, Canada, should evaluate and improve upon themselves, this evaluation model was developed. The participating personnel and the development of the evaluation model are described. The model has 11 parts: (1) needs assessment; (2) statement of objectives; (3) definition of objectives; (4)…

  9. The design and implementation of an operational model evaluation system

    SciTech Connect

    Foster, K.T.

    1995-06-01

    An evaluation of an atmospheric transport and diffusion model`s operational performance typically involves the comparison of the model`s calculations with measurements of an atmospheric pollutant`s temporal and spatial distribution. These evaluations however often use data from a small number of experiments and may be limited to producing some of the commonly quoted statistics based on the differences between model calculations and the measurements. This paper presents efforts to develop a model evaluation system geared for both the objective statistical analysis and the more subjective visualization of the inter-relationships between a model`s calculations and the appropriate field measurement data.

  10. Dietetic Internship: Evaluation of an Integrated Model.

    PubMed

    Lordly, Daphne J.; Travers, Kim D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to utilize graduate and employer perceptions of outcomes of the Mount Saint Vincent University (MSVU) Co-operative Education (Co-op) Dietetics program to determine if an integrated model was an acceptable alternate method of dietetic education. Acceptable alternate was defined as: "facilitating achievement of entry level competence for dietetic practice". A self-administered, validated and piloted questionnaire was utilized to collect qualitative and quantitative information concerning employability, professional preparedness and program outcomes. Surveys were mailed to all program graduates (1989-1993) (n=24) and their first employers (n=19). Response rates were 96% and 89% respectively. Close-ended questions were analyzed quantitatively by determining frequency distributions. Data were also subjected to Chi-square to identify dependent factors. Qualitative responses to open-ended questions were analyzed by thematic content analysis. Results revealed all graduates were employed by six months after graduation. Competency development, a component of professional preparedness, was rated as average or above average by the majority of graduates and employers. Analysis of open-ended responses indicated that the introduction of experience while students were establishing theoretical foundations was perceived as beneficial. An integration of qualitative findings led to the development of a model depicting how professional competency development, readiness for practice, a realistic approach to dietetic practice and a high standard of practice were developed within an evolving personal and contextual framework. Socialization and mentoring opportunities, evaluation processes and the integration of theory and practice influenced professional development. In conclusion, both employer and graduate responses indicated overall program satisfaction suggesting that the Co-op program is an acceptable alternate method of dietetic education.

  11. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The model performance evaluation consists of metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors.

  12. Evaluation of video quality models for multimedia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunnström, Kjell; Hands, David; Speranza, Filippo; Webster, Arthur

    2008-02-01

    The Video Quality Experts Group (VQEG) is a group of experts from industry, academia, government and standards organizations working in the field of video quality assessment. Over the last 10 years, VQEG has focused its efforts on the evaluation of objective video quality metrics for digital video. Objective video metrics are mathematical models that predict the picture quality as perceived by an average observer. VQEG has completed validation tests for full reference objective metrics for the Standard Definition Television (SDTV) format. From this testing, two ITU Recommendations were produced. This standardization effort is of great relevance to the video industries because objective metrics can be used for quality control of the video at various stages of the delivery chain. Currently, VQEG is undertaking several projects in parallel. The most mature project is concerned with objective measurement of multimedia content. This project is probably the largest coordinated set of video quality testing ever embarked upon. The project will involve the collection of a very large database of subjective quality data. About 40 subjective assessment experiments and more than 160,000 opinion scores will be collected. These will be used to validate the proposed objective metrics. This paper describes the test plan for the project, its current status, and one of the multimedia subjective tests.

  13. Modelling and evaluating against the violent insider

    SciTech Connect

    Fortney, D.S.; Al-Ayat, R.A.; Saleh, R.A.

    1991-07-01

    The violent insider threat poses a special challenge to facilities protecting special nuclear material from theft or diversion. These insiders could potentially behave as nonviolent insiders to deceitfully defeat certain safeguards elements and use violence to forcefully defeat hardware or personnel. While several vulnerability assessment tools are available to deal with the nonviolent insider, very limited effort has been directed to developing analysis tools for the violent threat. In this paper, we present an approach using the results of a vulnerability assessment for nonviolent insiders to evaluate certain violent insider scenarios. Since existing tools do not explicitly consider violent insiders, the approach is intended for experienced safeguards analysts and relies on the analyst to brainstorm possible violent actions, to assign detection probabilities, and to ensure consistency. We then discuss our efforts in developing an automated tool for assessing the vulnerability against those violent insiders who are willing to use force against barriers, but who are unwilling to kill or be killed. Specifically, we discuss our efforts in developing databases for violent insiders penetrating barriers, algorithms for considering the entry of contraband, and modelling issues in considering the use of violence.

  14. Increasing the Use of Evaluation Information: An Evaluator-Manager Interaction Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Jay; And Others

    An evaluator-manager interaction model is developed for predicting the impact of evaluation and research findings. Instruments are developed for measuring the variables of interpersonal involvement, impact of evaluation, and managerial style in the relationship between evaluator and manager. The hypothesis advanced suggests that evaluators can…

  15. A Hybrid Evaluation Model for Evaluating Online Professional Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hahs-Vaughn, Debbie; Zygouris-Coe, Vicky; Fiedler, Rebecca

    2007-01-01

    Online professional development is multidimensional. It encompasses: a) an online, web-based format; b) professional development; and most likely c) specific objectives tailored to and created for the respective online professional development course. Evaluating online professional development is therefore also multidimensional and as such both…

  16. Simplified cost models for prefeasibility mineral evaluations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camm, Thomas W.

    1991-01-01

    This report contains 2 open pit models, 6 underground mine models, 11 mill models, and cost equations for access roads, power lines, and tailings ponds. In addition, adjustment factors for variation in haulage distances are provided for open pit models and variation in mining depths for underground models.

  17. A Model for Evaluating Title 1 Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rost, Paul; And Others

    Albuquerque's Title I evaluation staff is in the process of generating a comprehensive local evaluation design because it considers the federally required product evaluation unsatisfactory. The required mean-gain comparisons were extended beyond the dimension of program to the dimensions of school, grade, and Title I instructor. This evaluation…

  18. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION TOOL (AMET); AIR QUALITY MODULE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation reviews the development of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) air quality module. The AMET tool is being developed to aid in the model evaluation. This presentation focuses on the air quality evaluation portion of AMET. Presented are examples of the...

  19. THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL EVALUATION TOOL (AMET); AIR QUALITY MODULE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation reviews the development of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) air quality module. The AMET tool is being developed to aid in the model evaluation. This presentation focuses on the air quality evaluation portion of AMET. Presented are examples of the...

  20. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ∼100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  1. Program evaluation models and related theories: AMEE guide no. 67.

    PubMed

    Frye, Ann W; Hemmer, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    This Guide reviews theories of science that have influenced the development of common educational evaluation models. Educators can be more confident when choosing an appropriate evaluation model if they first consider the model's theoretical basis against their program's complexity and their own evaluation needs. Reductionism, system theory, and (most recently) complexity theory have inspired the development of models commonly applied in evaluation studies today. This Guide describes experimental and quasi-experimental models, Kirkpatrick's four-level model, the Logic Model, and the CIPP (Context/Input/Process/Product) model in the context of the theories that influenced their development and that limit or support their ability to do what educators need. The goal of this Guide is for educators to become more competent and confident in being able to design educational program evaluations that support intentional program improvement while adequately documenting or describing the changes and outcomes-intended and unintended-associated with their programs.

  2. The Use of AMET and Automated Scripts for Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) is a suite of software designed to facilitate the analysis and evaluation of meteorological and air quality models. AMET matches the model output for particular locations to the corresponding observed values from one or more networks ...

  3. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Teacher. Edition III

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching and learning. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Teacher Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all teachers improve. Through the Model, the goal is to help create a…

  4. The Relevance of the CIPP Evaluation Model for Educational Accountability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stufflebeam, Daniel L.

    The CIPP Evaluation Model was originally developed to provide timely information in a systematic way for decision making, which is a proactive application of evaluation. This article examines whether the CIPP model also serves the retroactive purpose of providing information for accountability. Specifically, can the CIPP Model adequately assist…

  5. Evaluating Latent Variable Growth Models through Ex Post Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, David; George, Rani

    1998-01-01

    The use of ex post (historical) simulation statistics as means of evaluating latent growth models is considered, and a variety of simulation quality statistics are applied to such models. Results illustrate the importance of using these measures as adjuncts to more traditional forms of model evaluation. (SLD)

  6. Using fish population models in hydro project evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Power, M.V.; McKinley, R.S.

    1997-04-01

    Technical details of the use of population-level fisheries models in evaluating the environmental impacts of hydroelectric projects are described. Population models are grouped into four types, and evaluated in terms of usefulness of results, prediction uncertainty, and data requirements. The four types of models identified are stock-recruitment, Leslie matrix, life-cycle, and individual-based. Each model is discussed in some detail, with sample results and comparisons between models.

  7. Evaluation of Models of Parkinson's Disease

    PubMed Central

    Jagmag, Shail A.; Tripathi, Naveen; Shukla, Sunil D.; Maiti, Sankar; Khurana, Sukant

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson's disease is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases. Animal models have contributed a large part to our understanding and therapeutics developed for treatment of PD. There are several more exhaustive reviews of literature that provide the initiated insights into the specific models; however a novel synthesis of the basic advantages and disadvantages of different models is much needed. Here we compare both neurotoxin based and genetic models while suggesting some novel avenues in PD modeling. We also highlight the problems faced and promises of all the mammalian models with the hope of providing a framework for comparison of various systems. PMID:26834536

  8. Evaluating uncertainty in stochastic simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.D.

    1998-02-01

    This paper discusses fundamental concepts of uncertainty analysis relevant to both stochastic simulation models and deterministic models. A stochastic simulation model, called a simulation model, is a stochastic mathematical model that incorporates random numbers in the calculation of the model prediction. Queuing models are familiar simulation models in which random numbers are used for sampling interarrival and service times. Another example of simulation models is found in probabilistic risk assessments where atmospheric dispersion submodels are used to calculate movement of material. For these models, randomness comes not from the sampling of times but from the sampling of weather conditions, which are described by a frequency distribution of atmospheric variables like wind speed and direction as a function of height above ground. A common characteristic of simulation models is that single predictions, based on one interarrival time or one weather condition, for example, are not nearly as informative as the probability distribution of possible predictions induced by sampling the simulation variables like time and weather condition. The language of model analysis is often general and vague, with terms having mostly intuitive meaning. The definition and motivations for some of the commonly used terms and phrases offered in this paper lead to an analysis procedure based on prediction variance. In the following mathematical abstraction the authors present a setting for model analysis, relate practical objectives to mathematical terms, and show how two reasonable premises lead to a viable analysis strategy.

  9. Promoting Excellence in Nursing Education (PENE): Pross evaluation model.

    PubMed

    Pross, Elizabeth A

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this article is to examine the Promoting Excellence in Nursing Education (PENE) Pross evaluation model. A conceptual evaluation model, such as the one described here, may be useful to nurse academicians in the ongoing evaluation of educational programs, especially those with goals of excellence. Frameworks for evaluating nursing programs are necessary because they offer a way to systematically assess the educational effectiveness of complex nursing programs. This article describes the conceptual framework and its tenets of excellence.

  10. Likelihood-Based Climate Model Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braverman, Amy; Cressie, Noel; Teixeira, Joao

    2012-01-01

    Climate models are deterministic, mathematical descriptions of the physics of climate. Confidence in predictions of future climate is increased if the physics are verifiably correct. A necessary, (but not sufficient) condition is that past and present climate be simulated well. Quantify the likelihood that a (summary statistic computed from a) set of observations arises from a physical system with the characteristics captured by a model generated time series. Given a prior on models, we can go further: posterior distribution of model given observations.

  11. Mapping tradeoffs in values at risk at the interface between wilderness and non-wilderness lands

    Treesearch

    Alan Watson; Roian Matt; Tim Waters; Kari Gunderson; Steve Carver; Brett Davis

    2009-01-01

    On the Flathead Indian Reservation in Montana, U.S., the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness is bordered by a buffer zone. To successfully improve forest health within that buffer zone and restore fire in the wilderness, the managing agency and the public need to work together to find solutions to increasingly threatening fuel buildups. A combination of qualitative,...

  12. Assessing post-fire values-at-risk with a new calculation tool

    Treesearch

    David E. Calkin; Kevin D. Hyde; Peter R. Robichaud; J. Greg Jones; Louise E. Ashmun; Loeffler Dan

    2007-01-01

    Wildfire effects include loss of vegetative cover and changes to soil properties that may lead to secondary effects of increased runoff, erosion, flooding, sedimentation, and vulnerability to invasive weeds. These secondary effects may threaten human life and safety, cultural and ecological resources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Current Burned Area Emergency...

  13. Superquantile Regression with Applications to Buffered Reliability, Uncertainty Quantification, and Conditional Value-at-Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-02-06

    Y ) dβ. (1) Since a superquantile is a coherent measure of risk and by the virtue of being an ‘average’ of quantiles is also more stable than a...deter- mination for superquantile regression similarly in the case where the distribution of (X,Y ) has a finite support of cardinality ν. Definition 2

  14. Understanding place meanings for wilderness: Personal and community values at risk

    Treesearch

    Kari Gunderson

    2006-01-01

    Information about human relationships with wilderness is important for wilderness management decisions, including decisions pertaining to the use of wildland fire. In a study about meanings attached to a national forest, local residents were asked to identify places they valued on the forest, why they valued them, and how fuel treatments affected those values. Local...

  15. Human relationships to fire prone ecosystems: Mapping values at risk on contested landscapes

    Treesearch

    Kari Gunderson; Steve Carver; Brett H. Davis

    2011-01-01

    A key problem in developing a better understanding of different responses to landscape level management actions, such as fuel treatments, is being able to confidently record and accurately spatially delineate the meanings stakeholders ascribe to the landscape. To more accurately understand these relationships with the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, U.S.A., local...

  16. Evaluation of Traditional Medicines for Neurodegenerative Diseases Using Drosophila Models

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soojin; Bang, Se Min; Lee, Joon Woo; Cho, Kyoung Sang

    2014-01-01

    Drosophila is one of the oldest and most powerful genetic models and has led to novel insights into a variety of biological processes. Recently, Drosophila has emerged as a model system to study human diseases, including several important neurodegenerative diseases. Because of the genomic similarity between Drosophila and humans, Drosophila neurodegenerative disease models exhibit a variety of human-disease-like phenotypes, facilitating fast and cost-effective in vivo genetic modifier screening and drug evaluation. Using these models, many disease-associated genetic factors have been identified, leading to the identification of compelling drug candidates. Recently, the safety and efficacy of traditional medicines for human diseases have been evaluated in various animal disease models. Despite the advantages of the Drosophila model, its usage in the evaluation of traditional medicines is only nascent. Here, we introduce the Drosophila model for neurodegenerative diseases and some examples demonstrating the successful application of Drosophila models in the evaluation of traditional medicines. PMID:24790636

  17. Evaluating animal models: some taxonomic worries.

    PubMed

    Degeling, Chris; Johnson, Jane

    2013-04-01

    The seminal 1993 article by LaFollette and Shanks "Animal Models in Biomedical Research: Some Epistemological Worries" introduced an influential taxonomy into the debate about the value of animal experimentation. The distinction they made between hypothetical and causal analog models served to highlight a concern regarding extrapolating results obtained in animal models to human subjects, which endures today. Although their taxonomy has made a significant contribution to the field, we maintain that it is flawed, and instead, we offer a new practice-oriented taxonomy of animal models as a means to allow philosophers, modelers, and other interested parties to discuss the epistemic merits and shortcomings, purpose, and predictive capacities of specific modeling practices.

  18. Evaluating a Computational Model of Emotion

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    psychological (although this may change with the rise of neuroscience ). Simulation-driven models vary considerably from simplistic approaches that require...functions. Some have tried to faithfully model what is known about the neuroscience of emotion to give better insight into these processes. For...34Lifelike Pedagogical Agents for Mixed-Initiative Problem Solving in Constructivist Learning Environments," User Modeling and User-Adapted Instruction, vol

  19. The Army New Personnel System Evaluation Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-10-01

    Models for Manpower Planning,’ International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 24, No. 5, 1267-1282. Holz, B. and J. Worth, 1980, ’Improving Strength...Navy. Two such systems are the Accession Supply Costing and Requirement (ASCAR) and Enlisted Loss Inventory Model -Computation of Manpower Programs...this model , officer inventory within each community is specified by the number needed in different states at each time period . An officer state is

  20. A simple model for straggling evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, J. W.; Tweed, J.; Tai, H.; Tripathi, R. K.

    2002-01-01

    Some straggling models had largely been abandoned in favor of Monte Carlo simulations of straggling which are accurate but time consuming, limiting their application in practice. The difficulty of simple analytic models is the failure to give accurate values past 85% of the particle range. A simple model is derived herein based on a second order approximation upon which rapid analysis tools are developed for improved understanding of material charged particle transmission properties. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  1. Structural model optimization using statistical evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Collins, J. D.; Hart, G. C.; Gabler, R. T.; Kennedy, B.

    1972-01-01

    The results of research in applying statistical methods to the problem of structural dynamic system identification are presented. The study is in three parts: a review of previous approaches by other researchers, a development of various linear estimators which might find application, and the design and development of a computer program which uses a Bayesian estimator. The method is tried on two models and is successful where the predicted stiffness matrix is a proper model, e.g., a bending beam is represented by a bending model. Difficulties are encountered when the model concept varies. There is also evidence that nonlinearity must be handled properly to speed the convergence.

  2. Performance models for automatic evaluation of virtual scanning keyboards.

    PubMed

    Bhattacharya, Samit; Samanta, Debasis; Basu, Anupam

    2008-10-01

    Virtual scanning keyboards are commonly used augmentative communication aids by persons with severe speech and motion impairments. Designers of virtual scanning keyboards face problems in evaluating alternate designs and hence in choosing the better design among alternatives. Automatic evaluation of designs will be helpful to designers in making the appropriate design choice. In this paper, we present performance models for virtual scanning keyboards that can be used for automatic evaluation. The proposed models address the limitations present in the reported work on similar models. We compared the model predictions with results from user trials and established the validity of the proposed models.

  3. Evaluation of Fast-Time Wake Vortex Prediction Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Proctor, Fred H.; Hamilton, David W.

    2009-01-01

    Current fast-time wake models are reviewed and three basic types are defined. Predictions from several of the fast-time models are compared. Previous statistical evaluations of the APA-Sarpkaya and D2P fast-time models are discussed. Root Mean Square errors between fast-time model predictions and Lidar wake measurements are examined for a 24 hr period at Denver International Airport. Shortcomings in current methodology for evaluating wake errors are also discussed.

  4. Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

    SciTech Connect

    Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

    2010-08-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

  5. Evaluation of spinal cord injury animal models

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ning; Fang, Marong; Chen, Haohao; Gou, Fangming; Ding, Mingxing

    2014-01-01

    Because there is no curative treatment for spinal cord injury, establishing an ideal animal model is important to identify injury mechanisms and develop therapies for individuals suffering from spinal cord injuries. In this article, we systematically review and analyze various kinds of animal models of spinal cord injury and assess their advantages and disadvantages for further studies. PMID:25598784

  6. Evaluation of the BioVapor Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    The BioVapor model addresses transport and biodegradation of petroleum vapors in the subsurface. This presentation describes basic background on the nature and scientific basis of environmental transport models. It then describes a series of parameter uncertainty runs of the Bi...

  7. Evaluation of the BioVapor Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    The BioVapor model addresses transport and biodegradation of petroleum vapors in the subsurface. This presentation describes basic background on the nature and scientific basis of environmental transport models. It then describes a series of parameter uncertainty runs of the Bi...

  8. Evaluation study of building-resolved urban dispersion models

    SciTech Connect

    Flaherty, Julia E.; Allwine, K Jerry; Brown, Mike J.; Coirier, WIlliam J.; Ericson, Shawn C.; Hansen, Olav R.; Huber, Alan H.; Kim, Sura; Leach, Martin J.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Newsom, Rob K.; Patnaik, Gopal; Senocak, Inanc

    2007-09-10

    For effective emergency response and recovery planning, it is critically important that building-resolved urban dispersion models be evaluated using field data. Several full-physics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models and semi-empirical building-resolved (SEB) models are being advanced and applied to simulating flow and dispersion in urban areas. To obtain an estimate of the current state-of-readiness of these classes of models, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funded a study to compare five CFD models and one SEB model with tracer data from the extensive Midtown Manhattan field study (MID05) conducted during August 2005 as part of the DHS Urban Dispersion Program (UDP; Allwine and Flaherty 2007). Six days of tracer and meteorological experiments were conducted over an approximately 2-km-by-2-km area in Midtown Manhattan just south of Central Park in New York City. A subset of these data was used for model evaluations. The study was conducted such that an evaluation team, independent of the six modeling teams, provided all the input data (e.g., building data, meteorological data and tracer release rates) and run conditions for each of four experimental periods simulated. Tracer concentration data for two of the four experimental periods were provided to the modeling teams for their own evaluation of their respective models to ensure proper setup and operation. Tracer data were not provided for the second two experimental periods to provide for an independent evaluation of the models. The tracer concentrations resulting from the model simulations were provided to the evaluation team in a standard format for consistency in inter-comparing model results. An overview of the model evaluation approach will be given followed by a discussion on the qualitative comparison of the respective models with the field data. Future model developments efforts needed to address modeling gaps identified from this study will also be discussed.

  9. Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

    Treesearch

    Bruce G. Marcot

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

  10. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    PubMed

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  11. Evaluation of Numerical Storm Surge Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-12-01

    of Defense, has primary responsibility for design of coastal protective works and for recommendations, where appropriate, for the management of exposed...coastal areas. In addition, the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA), of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FFMA), is responsible for...study management and the responsibility to compare and evaluate the results of the computations were assigned to the Committee on Tidal Hydraulics

  12. Designing and Evaluating Representations to Model Pedagogy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Masterman, Elizabeth; Craft, Brock

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the case for a theory-informed approach to designing and evaluating representations for implementation in digital tools to support Learning Design, using the framework of epistemic efficacy as an example. This framework, which is rooted in the literature of cognitive psychology, is operationalised through dimensions of fit…

  13. Model for Evaluating Teacher and Trainer Competences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carioca, Vito; Rodrigues, Clara; Saude, Sandra; Kokosowski, Alain; Harich, Katja; Sau-Ek, Kristiina; Georgogianni, Nicole; Levy, Samuel; Speer, Sandra; Pugh, Terence

    2009-01-01

    A lack of common criteria for comparing education and training systems makes it difficult to recognise qualifications and competences acquired in different environments and levels of training. A valid basis for defining a framework for evaluating professional performance in European educational and training contexts must therefore be established.…

  14. Ohio Principal Evaluation System: Model Packet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio Department of Education, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Ohio Principal Evaluation System (OPES) was collaboratively developed by Ohio superintendents, school administrators, higher education faculty, and representatives from Ohio's administrator associations. It was designed to be research-based, transparent, fair and adaptable to the specific contexts of Ohio's districts (rural, urban, suburban,…

  15. Evaluating Individualized Reading Programs: A Bayesian Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maxwell, Martha

    Simple Bayesian approaches can be applied to answer specific questions in evaluating an individualized reading program. A small reading and study skills program located in the counseling center of a major research university collected and compiled data on student characteristics such as class, number of sessions attended, grade point average, and…

  16. Four-dimensional evaluation of regional air quality models

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present highlights of the results obtained in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). Activities in AQMEII3 were focused on evaluating the performance of global, hemispheric and regional modeling systems over Europe and North Ame...

  17. Evaluating a Training Using the "Four Levels Model"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steensma, Herman; Groeneveld, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The aims of this study are: to present a training evaluation based on the "four levels model"; to demonstrate the value of experimental designs in evaluation studies; and to take a first step in the development of an evidence-based training program. Design/methodology/approach: The Kirkpatrick four levels model was used to…

  18. A Model for Evaluating Development Programs. Miscellaneous Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, John E., Jr.; Rogers, David L.

    Taking the position that the Classical Experimental Evaluation (CEE) Model does not do justice to the process of acquiring information necessary for decision making re planning, programming, implementing, and recycling program activities, this paper presents the Inductive, System-Process (ISP) evaluation model as an alternative to be used in…

  19. The Use of AMET & Automated Scripts for Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Brief overview of EPA’s new CMAQ website to be launched publically in June, 2017. Details on the upcoming release of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) and the creation of automated scripts for post-processing and evaluating air quality model data.

  20. Evaluating a Training Using the "Four Levels Model"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steensma, Herman; Groeneveld, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The aims of this study are: to present a training evaluation based on the "four levels model"; to demonstrate the value of experimental designs in evaluation studies; and to take a first step in the development of an evidence-based training program. Design/methodology/approach: The Kirkpatrick four levels model was used to…

  1. A Generalized Evaluation Model for Primary Prevention Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barling, Phillip W.; Cramer, Kathryn D.

    A generalized evaluation model (GEM) has been developed to evaluate primary prevention program impact. The GEM model views primary prevention dynamically; delineating four structural components (program, organization, target population, system) and four developmental stages (initiation, establishment, integration, continuation). The interaction of…

  2. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Building Administrator. Edition III

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful educator evaluation and support system will help improve teaching, learning, and school leadership. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Building Administrator Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all building administrators improve.…

  3. Rhode Island Model Evaluation & Support System: Support Professional. Edition II

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhode Island Department of Education, 2015

    2015-01-01

    Rhode Island educators believe that implementing a fair, accurate, and meaningful evaluation and support system for support professionals will help improve student outcomes. The primary purpose of the Rhode Island Model Support Professional Evaluation and Support System (Rhode Island Model) is to help all support professionals do their best work…

  4. Four-dimensional evaluation of regional air quality models

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present highlights of the results obtained in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). Activities in AQMEII3 were focused on evaluating the performance of global, hemispheric and regional modeling systems over Europe and North Ame...

  5. Testing of a Program Evaluation Model: Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagler, Phyllis J.; Marson, Arthur A.

    A program evaluation model developed by Moraine Park Technical Institute (MPTI) is described in this report. Following background material, the four main evaluation criteria employed in the model are identified as program quality, program relevance to community needs, program impact on MPTI, and the transition and growth of MPTI graduates in the…

  6. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  7. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  8. Testing of a Program Evaluation Model: Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagler, Phyllis J.; Marson, Arthur A.

    A program evaluation model developed by Moraine Park Technical Institute (MPTI) is described in this report. Following background material, the four main evaluation criteria employed in the model are identified as program quality, program relevance to community needs, program impact on MPTI, and the transition and growth of MPTI graduates in the…

  9. The Development of Educational Evaluation Models in Indonesia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nasoetion, N.; And Others

    The primary purpose of this project was to develop model evaluation procedures that could be applied to large educational undertakings in Indonesia. Three programs underway in Indonesia were selected for the development of evaluation models: the Textbook-Teacher Upgrading Project, the Development School Project, and the Examinations (Item Bank)…

  10. Program Evaluation: The Accountability Bridge Model for Counselors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Astramovich, Randall L.; Coker, J. Kelly

    2007-01-01

    The accountability and reform movements in education and the human services professions have pressured counselors to demonstrate outcomes of counseling programs and services. Evaluation models developed for large-scale evaluations are generally impractical for counselors to implement. Counselors require practical models to guide them in planning…

  11. TMDL MODEL EVALUATION AND RESEARCH NEEDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This review examines the modeling research needs to support environmental decision-making for the 303(d) requirements for development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and related programs such as 319 Nonpoint Source Program activities, watershed management, stormwater permits...

  12. TMDL MODEL EVALUATION AND RESEARCH NEEDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This review examines the modeling research needs to support environmental decision-making for the 303(d) requirements for development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and related programs such as 319 Nonpoint Source Program activities, watershed management, stormwater permits...

  13. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

  14. Model Energy Efficiency Program Impact Evaluation Guide

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides guidance on model approaches for calculating energy, demand, and emissions savings resulting from energy efficiency programs. It describes several standard approaches that can be used in order to make these programs more efficient.

  15. EVALUATING AND USING AIR QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Grid-based models are being used to assess the magnitude of the pollution problem and to design emission control strategies to achieve compliance with the relevant air quality standards in the United States.

  16. A Context-Adaptive Model for Program Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lynch, Brian K.

    1990-01-01

    Presents an adaptable, context-sensitive model for ESL/EFL program evaluation, consisting of seven steps that guide an evaluator through consideration of relevant issues, information, and design elements. Examples from an evaluation of the Reading for Science and Technology Project at the University of Guadalajara, Mexico are given. (31…

  17. Evaluation of Surrogate Animal Models of Melioidosis

    PubMed Central

    Warawa, Jonathan Mark

    2010-01-01

    Burkholderia pseudomallei is the Gram-negative bacterial pathogen responsible for the disease melioidosis. B. pseudomallei establishes disease in susceptible individuals through multiple routes of infection, all of which may proceed to a septicemic disease associated with a high mortality rate. B. pseudomallei opportunistically infects humans and a wide range of animals directly from the environment, and modeling of experimental melioidosis has been conducted in numerous biologically relevant models including mammalian and invertebrate hosts. This review seeks to summarize published findings related to established animal models of melioidosis, with an aim to compare and contrast the virulence of B. pseudomallei in these models. The effect of the route of delivery on disease is also discussed for intravenous, intraperitoneal, subcutaneous, intranasal, aerosol, oral, and intratracheal infection methodologies, with a particular focus on how they relate to modeling clinical melioidosis. The importance of the translational validity of the animal models used in B. pseudomallei research is highlighted as these studies have become increasingly therapeutic in nature. PMID:21772830

  18. Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) Chemical Release Modeling Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Stirrup, Timothy Scott

    2016-12-20

    This evaluation documents the methodology and results of chemical release modeling for operations at Building 518, Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) Core Facility. This evaluation is intended to supplement an update to the CINT [Standalone] Hazards Analysis (SHA). This evaluation also updates the original [Design] Hazards Analysis (DHA) completed in 2003 during the design and construction of the facility; since the original DHA, additional toxic materials have been evaluated and modeled to confirm the continued low hazard classification of the CINT facility and operations. This evaluation addresses the potential catastrophic release of the current inventory of toxic chemicals at Building 518 based on a standard query in the Chemical Information System (CIS).

  19. Statistical modeling for visualization evaluation through data fusion.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaoyu; Jin, Ran

    2017-11-01

    There is a high demand of data visualization providing insights to users in various applications. However, a consistent, online visualization evaluation method to quantify mental workload or user preference is lacking, which leads to an inefficient visualization and user interface design process. Recently, the advancement of interactive and sensing technologies makes the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, eye movements as well as visualization logs available in user-centered evaluation. This paper proposes a data fusion model and the application procedure for quantitative and online visualization evaluation. 15 participants joined the study based on three different visualization designs. The results provide a regularized regression model which can accurately predict the user's evaluation of task complexity, and indicate the significance of all three types of sensing data sets for visualization evaluation. This model can be widely applied to data visualization evaluation, and other user-centered designs evaluation and data analysis in human factors and ergonomics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Systematic evaluation of atmospheric chemistry-transport model CHIMERE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Siour, Guillaume; Couvidat, Florian; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Turquety, Solene

    2017-04-01

    Regional-scale atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTM) are used to develop air quality regulatory measures, to support environmentally sensitive decisions in the industry, and to address variety of scientific questions involving the atmospheric composition. Model performance evaluation with measurement data is critical to understand their limits and the degree of confidence in model results. CHIMERE CTM (http://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/) is a French national tool for operational forecast and decision support and is widely used in the international research community in various areas of atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate, and environment (http://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/CW-articles.php). This work presents the model evaluation framework applied systematically to the new CHIMERE CTM versions in the course of the continuous model development. The framework uses three of the four CTM evaluation types identified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS): operational, diagnostic, and dynamic. It allows to compare the overall model performance in subsequent model versions (operational evaluation), identify specific processes and/or model inputs that could be improved (diagnostic evaluation), and test the model sensitivity to the changes in air quality, such as emission reductions and meteorological events (dynamic evaluation). The observation datasets currently used for the evaluation are: EMEP (surface concentrations), AERONET (optical depths), and WOUDC (ozone sounding profiles). The framework is implemented as an automated processing chain and allows interactive exploration of the results via a web interface.

  1. Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Systems Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feary, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    This presentation is part of panel discussion on Evaluating Models of Human Performance. The purpose of this panel is to discuss the increasing use of models in the world today and specifically focus on how to describe and evaluate models of human performance. My presentation will focus on discussions of generating distributions of performance, and the evaluation of different strategies for humans performing tasks with mixed initiative (Human-Automation) systems. I will also discuss issues with how to provide Human Performance modeling data to support decisions on acceptability and tradeoffs in the design of safety critical systems. I will conclude with challenges for the future.

  2. Models for evaluating the performability of degradable computing systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, L. T.

    1982-01-01

    Recent advances in multiprocessor technology established the need for unified methods to evaluate computing systems performance and reliability. In response to this modeling need, a general modeling framework that permits the modeling, analysis and evaluation of degradable computing systems is considered. Within this framework, several user oriented performance variables are identified and shown to be proper generalizations of the traditional notions of system performance and reliability. Furthermore, a time varying version of the model is developed to generalize the traditional fault tree reliability evaluation methods of phased missions.

  3. CFD code evaluation for internal flow modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chung, T. J.

    1990-01-01

    Research on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code evaluation with emphasis on supercomputing in reacting flows is discussed. Advantages of unstructured grids, multigrids, adaptive methods, improved flow solvers, vector processing, parallel processing, and reduction of memory requirements are discussed. As examples, researchers include applications of supercomputing to reacting flow Navier-Stokes equations including shock waves and turbulence and combustion instability problems associated with solid and liquid propellants. Evaluation of codes developed by other organizations are not included. Instead, the basic criteria for accuracy and efficiency have been established, and some applications on rocket combustion have been made. Research toward an ultimate goal, the most accurate and efficient CFD code, is in progress and will continue for years to come.

  4. Evaluation of Model Fit in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hu, Jinxiang; Miller, M. David; Huggins-Manley, Anne Corinne; Chen, Yi-Hsin

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) estimate student ability profiles using latent attributes. Model fit to the data needs to be ascertained in order to determine whether inferences from CDMs are valid. This study investigated the usefulness of some popular model fit statistics to detect CDM fit including relative fit indices (AIC, BIC, and CAIC),…

  5. Evaluation of Model Fit in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hu, Jinxiang; Miller, M. David; Huggins-Manley, Anne Corinne; Chen, Yi-Hsin

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) estimate student ability profiles using latent attributes. Model fit to the data needs to be ascertained in order to determine whether inferences from CDMs are valid. This study investigated the usefulness of some popular model fit statistics to detect CDM fit including relative fit indices (AIC, BIC, and CAIC),…

  6. Experimental evaluations of the microchannel flow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, K. J.

    2015-06-01

    Recent advances have enabled a new wave of biomechanics measurements, and have renewed interest in selecting appropriate rheological models for soft tissues such as the liver, thyroid, and prostate. The microchannel flow model was recently introduced to describe the linear response of tissue to stimuli such as stress relaxation or shear wave propagation. This model postulates a power law relaxation spectrum that results from a branching distribution of vessels and channels in normal soft tissue such as liver. In this work, the derivation is extended to determine the explicit link between the distribution of vessels and the relaxation spectrum. In addition, liver tissue is modified by temperature or salinity, and the resulting changes in tissue responses (by factors of 1.5 or greater) are reasonably predicted from the microchannel flow model, simply by considering the changes in fluid flow through the modified samples. The 2 and 4 parameter versions of the model are considered, and it is shown that in some cases the maximum time constant (corresponding to the minimum vessel diameters), could be altered in a way that has major impact on the observed tissue response. This could explain why an inflamed region is palpated as a harder bump compared to surrounding normal tissue.

  7. Experimental evaluations of the microchannel flow model.

    PubMed

    Parker, K J

    2015-06-07

    Recent advances have enabled a new wave of biomechanics measurements, and have renewed interest in selecting appropriate rheological models for soft tissues such as the liver, thyroid, and prostate. The microchannel flow model was recently introduced to describe the linear response of tissue to stimuli such as stress relaxation or shear wave propagation. This model postulates a power law relaxation spectrum that results from a branching distribution of vessels and channels in normal soft tissue such as liver. In this work, the derivation is extended to determine the explicit link between the distribution of vessels and the relaxation spectrum. In addition, liver tissue is modified by temperature or salinity, and the resulting changes in tissue responses (by factors of 1.5 or greater) are reasonably predicted from the microchannel flow model, simply by considering the changes in fluid flow through the modified samples. The 2 and 4 parameter versions of the model are considered, and it is shown that in some cases the maximum time constant (corresponding to the minimum vessel diameters), could be altered in a way that has major impact on the observed tissue response. This could explain why an inflamed region is palpated as a harder bump compared to surrounding normal tissue.

  8. Impact of model defect and experimental uncertainties on evaluated output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neudecker, D.; Capote, R.; Leeb, H.

    2013-09-01

    One of the current major problems in nuclear data evaluation is the unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties often obtained. These small uncertainties are partly attributed to missing correlations of experimental uncertainties as well as to deficiencies of the model employed for the prior information. In this article, both uncertainty sources are included in an evaluation of 55Mn cross-sections for incident neutrons. Their impact on the evaluated output is studied using a prior obtained by the Full Bayesian Evaluation Technique and a prior obtained by the nuclear model program EMPIRE. It is shown analytically and by means of an evaluation that unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties can be obtained not only if correlated systematic uncertainties of the experiment are neglected but also if prior uncertainties are smaller or about the same magnitude as the experimental ones. Furthermore, it is shown that including model defect uncertainties in the evaluation of 55Mn leads to larger evaluated uncertainties for channels where the model is deficient. It is concluded that including correlated experimental uncertainties is equally important as model defect uncertainties, if the model calculations deviate significantly from the measurements.

  9. Evaluation of biological models using Spacelab

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tollinger, D.; Williams, B. A.

    1980-01-01

    Biological models of hypogravity effects are described, including the cardiovascular-fluid shift, musculoskeletal, embryological and space sickness models. These models predict such effects as loss of extracellular fluid and electrolytes, decrease in red blood cell mass, and the loss of muscle and bone mass in weight-bearing portions of the body. Experimentation in Spacelab by the use of implanted electromagnetic flow probes, by fertilizing frog eggs in hypogravity and fixing the eggs at various stages of early development and by assessing the role of the vestibulocular reflex arc in space sickness is suggested. It is concluded that the use of small animals eliminates the uncertainties caused by corrective or preventive measures employed with human subjects.

  10. Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, James S.

    1992-01-01

    Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

  11. p-values for model evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Beaujean, F.; Caldwell, A.; Kollar, D.; Kroeninger, K.

    2011-01-01

    Deciding whether a model provides a good description of data is often based on a goodness-of-fit criterion summarized by a p-value. Although there is considerable confusion concerning the meaning of p-values, leading to their misuse, they are nevertheless of practical importance in common data analysis tasks. We motivate their application using a Bayesian argumentation. We then describe commonly and less commonly known discrepancy variables and how they are used to define p-values. The distribution of these are then extracted for examples modeled on typical data analysis tasks, and comments on their usefulness for determining goodness-of-fit are given.

  12. a Comparison of Semantic Similarity Models in Evaluating Concept Similarity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Q. X.; Shi, W. Z.

    2012-08-01

    The semantic similarities are important in concept definition, recognition, categorization, interpretation, and integration. Many semantic similarity models have been established to evaluate semantic similarities of objects or/and concepts. To find out the suitability and performance of different models in evaluating concept similarities, we make a comparison of four main types of models in this paper: the geometric model, the feature model, the network model, and the transformational model. Fundamental principles and main characteristics of these models are introduced and compared firstly. Land use and land cover concepts of NLCD92 are employed as examples in the case study. The results demonstrate that correlations between these models are very high for a possible reason that all these models are designed to simulate the similarity judgement of human mind.

  13. Drug Evaluation in the Plasmodium Falciparum - Aotus Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-03-23

    AOTUS MODEL PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Richard N. Rossan, Ph.D. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: PROMED TRADING, S.A. P.O. Box 025426, PTY-051 Miami, Florida...91 - 2/28/92) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS DRUG EVALUATION IN THE PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM - Contract No. AOTUS MODEL DAMD17-91-C-1072 6C...words) Tne Panamanian Autus - PLasmodium falciparum model was used to evaluate potential antimalaria drugs. Neither protriptylene nor tetrandrine, each

  14. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-26

    1 Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience Paul D. Reasor1 and Michael T. Montgomery2 1NOAA/AOML/Hurricane...2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER...heuristic model for the 4 temporal evolution of the small-amplitude tilt of a tropical cyclone -like vortex under 5 vertical-shear forcing for both a dry and

  15. Numerical models for the evaluation of geothermal systems

    SciTech Connect

    Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.; Lippmann, M.J.

    1986-08-01

    We have carried out detailed simulations of various fields in the USA (Bada, New Mexico; Heber, California); Mexico (Cerro Prieto); Iceland (Krafla); and Kenya (Olkaria). These simulation studies have illustrated the usefulness of numerical models for the overall evaluation of geothermal systems. The methodology for modeling the behavior of geothermal systems, different approaches to geothermal reservoir modeling and how they can be applied in comprehensive evaluation work are discussed.

  16. Working with Teaching Assistants: Three Models Evaluated

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cremin, Hilary; Thomas, Gary; Vincett, Karen

    2005-01-01

    Questions about how best to deploy teaching assistants (TAs) are particularly opposite given the greatly increasing numbers of TAs in British schools and given findings about the difficulty effecting adult teamwork in classrooms. In six classrooms, three models of team organisation and planning for the work of teaching assistants -- "room…

  17. AERMOD: MODEL FORMULATION AND EVALUATION RESULTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    AERMOD is an advanced plume model that incorporates updated treatments of the boundary layer theory, understanding of turbulence and dispersion, and includes handling of terrain interactions. This paper presents an overview of AERMOD's features relative to ISCST3.

    AERM...

  18. Evaluating the Pedagogical Potential of Hybrid Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levin, Tzur; Levin, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The paper examines how the use of hybrid models--that consist of the interacting continuous and discrete processes--may assist in teaching system thinking. We report an experiment in which undergraduate students were asked to choose between a hybrid and a continuous solution for a number of control problems. A correlation has been found between…

  19. AERMOD: MODEL FORMULATION AND EVALUATION RESULTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    AERMOD is an advanced plume model that incorporates updated treatments of the boundary layer theory, understanding of turbulence and dispersion, and includes handling of terrain interactions. This paper presents an overview of AERMOD's features relative to ISCST3.

    AERM...

  20. Evaluating a Model of Youth Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heitzler, Carrie D.; Lytle, Leslie A.; Erickson, Darin J.; Barr-Anderson, Daheia; Sirard, John R.; Story, Mary

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To explore the relationship between social influences, self-efficacy, enjoyment, and barriers and physical activity. Methods: Structural equation modeling examined relationships between parent and peer support, parent physical activity, individual perceptions, and objectively measured physical activity using accelerometers among a…

  1. Evaluation of regional-scale receptor modeling.

    PubMed

    Lowenthal, Douglas H; Watson, John G; Koracin, Darko; Chen, L W Antony; Dubois, David; Vellore, Ramesh; Kumar, Naresh; Knipping, Eladio M; Wheeler, Neil; Craig, Kenneth; Reid, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    The ability of receptor models to estimate regional contributions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was assessed with synthetic, speciated datasets at Brigantine National Wildlife Refuge (BRIG) in New Jersey and Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM) in Tennessee. Synthetic PM2.5 chemical concentrations were generated for the summer of 2002 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and chemically speciated PM2.5 source profiles from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s SPECIATE and Desert Research Institute's source profile databases. CMAQ estimated the "true" contributions of seven regions in the eastern United States to chemical species concentrations and individual source contributions to primary PM2.5 at both sites. A seven-factor solution by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model explained approximately 99% of the variability in the data at both sites. At BRIG, PMF captured the first four major contributing sources (including a secondary sulfate factor), although diesel and gasoline vehicle contributions were not separated. However, at GRSM, the resolved factors did not correspond well to major PM2.5 sources. There were no correlations between PMF factors and regional contributions to sulfate at either site. Unmix produced five- and seven-factor solutions, including a secondary sulfate factor, at both sites. Some PMF factors were combined or missing in the Unmix factors. The trajectory mass balance regression (TMBR) model apportioned sulfate concentrations to the seven source regions using Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) trajectories based on Meteorological Model Version 5 (MM5) and Eta Data Simulation System (EDAS) meteorological input. The largest estimated sulfate contributions at both sites were from the local regions; this agreed qualitatively with the true regional apportionments. Estimated regional contributions depended on the starting elevation of the trajectories and on

  2. Cutter Resource Effectiveness Evaluation Model. Executive Summary.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-06-01

    and D. S. Prerau ~~~ Transportation Systems Center Kendall Square, Cambridge, M~ 02142 T w ~~ r4r,S~~~~ June 1977 c~/ FINAL REPORTi • w Ic; E~ Document...I . Work Unit No. (TRAIS) USCG R&D Center Transportation Systems Center _______________________________ Avery Point Kendall Square ~~~~ Contract...document the Cutter Resource Effectiveness Evaluation Project at the CC R&D Center and Transportation Systems Center . ~16. Abstract ~This report provides a

  3. Modeling procedures for handling qualities evaluation of flexible aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Govindaraj, K. S.; Eulrich, B. J.; Chalk, C. R.

    1981-01-01

    This paper presents simplified modeling procedures to evaluate the impact of flexible modes and the unsteady aerodynamic effects on the handling qualities of Supersonic Cruise Aircraft (SCR). The modeling procedures involve obtaining reduced order transfer function models of SCR vehicles, including the important flexible mode responses and unsteady aerodynamic effects, and conversion of the transfer function models to time domain equations for use in simulations. The use of the modeling procedures is illustrated by a simple example.

  4. Modeling procedures for handling qualities evaluation of flexible aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Govindaraj, K. S.; Eulrich, B. J.; Chalk, C. R.

    1981-01-01

    This paper presents simplified modeling procedures to evaluate the impact of flexible modes and the unsteady aerodynamic effects on the handling qualities of Supersonic Cruise Aircraft (SCR). The modeling procedures involve obtaining reduced order transfer function models of SCR vehicles, including the important flexible mode responses and unsteady aerodynamic effects, and conversion of the transfer function models to time domain equations for use in simulations. The use of the modeling procedures is illustrated by a simple example.

  5. Automated expert modeling for automated student evaluation.

    SciTech Connect

    Abbott, Robert G.

    2006-01-01

    The 8th International Conference on Intelligent Tutoring Systems provides a leading international forum for the dissemination of original results in the design, implementation, and evaluation of intelligent tutoring systems and related areas. The conference draws researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines ranging from artificial intelligence and cognitive science to pedagogy and educational psychology. The conference explores intelligent tutoring systems increasing real world impact on an increasingly global scale. Improved authoring tools and learning object standards enable fielding systems and curricula in real world settings on an unprecedented scale. Researchers deploy ITS's in ever larger studies and increasingly use data from real students, tasks, and settings to guide new research. With high volumes of student interaction data, data mining, and machine learning, tutoring systems can learn from experience and improve their teaching performance. The increasing number of realistic evaluation studies also broaden researchers knowledge about the educational contexts for which ITS's are best suited. At the same time, researchers explore how to expand and improve ITS/student communications, for example, how to achieve more flexible and responsive discourse with students, help students integrate Web resources into learning, use mobile technologies and games to enhance student motivation and learning, and address multicultural perspectives.

  6. An Evaluation of Title I Model C1: The Special Regression Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mandeville, Garrett K.

    The RMC Research Corporation evaluation model C1--the special regression model (SRM)--was evaluated through a series of computer simulations and compared with an alternative model, the norm referenced model (NRM). Using local data and national norm data to determine reasonable values for sample size and pretest posttest correlation parameters, the…

  7. Evaluating the accuracy of diffusion MRI models in white matter.

    PubMed

    Rokem, Ariel; Yeatman, Jason D; Pestilli, Franco; Kay, Kendrick N; Mezer, Aviv; van der Walt, Stefan; Wandell, Brian A

    2015-01-01

    Models of diffusion MRI within a voxel are useful for making inferences about the properties of the tissue and inferring fiber orientation distribution used by tractography algorithms. A useful model must fit the data accurately. However, evaluations of model-accuracy of commonly used models have not been published before. Here, we evaluate model-accuracy of the two main classes of diffusion MRI models. The diffusion tensor model (DTM) summarizes diffusion as a 3-dimensional Gaussian distribution. Sparse fascicle models (SFM) summarize the signal as a sum of signals originating from a collection of fascicles oriented in different directions. We use cross-validation to assess model-accuracy at different gradient amplitudes (b-values) throughout the white matter. Specifically, we fit each model to all the white matter voxels in one data set and then use the model to predict a second, independent data set. This is the first evaluation of model-accuracy of these models. In most of the white matter the DTM predicts the data more accurately than test-retest reliability; SFM model-accuracy is higher than test-retest reliability and also higher than the DTM model-accuracy, particularly for measurements with (a) a b-value above 1000 in locations containing fiber crossings, and (b) in the regions of the brain surrounding the optic radiations. The SFM also has better parameter-validity: it more accurately estimates the fiber orientation distribution function (fODF) in each voxel, which is useful for fiber tracking.

  8. Grey Relational Evaluation on Road Project Delivery Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo, Shih-Ching; Chao, Yu; Lee, Gin-Yuan

    2009-08-01

    In this study, four road delivery project models are analyzed by grey relational evaluation. The four models are design-bid-build (DBB), design-build (DB), construction management (CM) and design-build-maintenance (DBM). Evaluating road project delivery models is difficult because the projects differ from road to road, state to state and country to country. Thus, the evaluation data of project delivery systems are poor and lacking. Grey theory is an effective mathematical method, which is a multidisciplinary and generic theory dealing with systems characterized by poor information and/or for which information is lacking. Therefore, grey relational analysis and grey model are employed to compare the efficiency of the four road project delivery models. According to the result, DBM is the best model. DBB is the worst one and DB is better than CM. The results may provide public sectors to employ an adequate model so as to proceed with road construction project.

  9. Evaluation protocol for the WIND system atmospheric models

    SciTech Connect

    Fast, J.D.

    1991-12-31

    Atmospheric transport and diffusion models have been developed for real-time calculations of the location and concentration of toxic or radioactive materials during a accidental release at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These models are have been incorporated into an automated menu-driven computer based system called the WIND (Weather INformation and Display) system. In an effort to establish more formal quality assurance procedures for the WIND system atmospheric codes, a software evaluation protocol is being developed. An evaluation protocol is necessary to determine how well they may perform in emergency response (real-time) situations. The evaluation of high-impact software must be conducted in accordance with WSRC QA Manual, 1Q, QAP 20-1. This report will describe the method that will be used to evaluate the atmospheric models. The evaluation will determine the effectiveness of the atmospheric models in emergency response situations, which is not necessarily the same procedure used for research purposes. The format of the evaluation plan will provide guidance for the evaluation of atmospheric models that may be added to the WIND system in the future. The evaluation plan is designed to provide the user with information about the WIND system atmospheric models that is necessary for emergency response situations.

  10. Evaluation protocol for the WIND system atmospheric models

    SciTech Connect

    Fast, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    Atmospheric transport and diffusion models have been developed for real-time calculations of the location and concentration of toxic or radioactive materials during a accidental release at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These models are have been incorporated into an automated menu-driven computer based system called the WIND (Weather INformation and Display) system. In an effort to establish more formal quality assurance procedures for the WIND system atmospheric codes, a software evaluation protocol is being developed. An evaluation protocol is necessary to determine how well they may perform in emergency response (real-time) situations. The evaluation of high-impact software must be conducted in accordance with WSRC QA Manual, 1Q, QAP 20-1. This report will describe the method that will be used to evaluate the atmospheric models. The evaluation will determine the effectiveness of the atmospheric models in emergency response situations, which is not necessarily the same procedure used for research purposes. The format of the evaluation plan will provide guidance for the evaluation of atmospheric models that may be added to the WIND system in the future. The evaluation plan is designed to provide the user with information about the WIND system atmospheric models that is necessary for emergency response situations.

  11. Evaluation of a hydrological model based on Bidirectional Reach (BReach)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Eerdenbrugh, Katrien; Van Hoey, Stijn; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2016-04-01

    Evaluation and discrimination of model structures is crucial to ensure an appropriate use of hydrological models. When evaluating model results by aggregating their quality in (a subset of) individual observations, overall results of this analysis sometimes conceal important detailed information about model structural deficiencies. Analyzing model results within their local (time) context can uncover this detailed information. In this research, a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach) is proposed to evaluate and analyze results of a hydrological model by assessing the maximum left and right reach in each observation point that is used for model evaluation. These maximum reaches express the capability of the model to describe a subset of the evaluation data both in the direction of the previous (left) and of the following data (right). This capability is evaluated on two levels. First, on the level of individual observations, the combination of a parameter set and an observation is classified as non-acceptable if the deviation between the accompanying model result and the measurement exceeds observational uncertainty. Second, the behavior in a sequence of observations is evaluated by means of a tolerance degree. This tolerance degree expresses the condition for satisfactory model behavior in a data series and is defined by the percentage of observations within this series that can have non-acceptable model results. Based on both criteria, the maximum left and right reaches of a model in an observation represent the data points in the direction of the previous respectively the following observations beyond which none of the sampled parameter sets both are satisfactory and result in an acceptable deviation. After assessing these reaches for a variety of tolerance degrees, results can be plotted in a combined BReach plot that show temporal changes in the behavior of model results. The methodology is applied on a Probability Distributed Model (PDM) of the river

  12. Evaluation of diffusion models in breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Panek, Rafal; Borri, Marco; Orton, Matthew; O'Flynn, Elizabeth; Morgan, Veronica; Giles, Sharon L; deSouza, Nandita; Leach, Martin O; Schmidt, Maria A

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the microvascular pseudodiffusion effects resulting with non-monoexponential behavior are present in breast cancer, taking into account tumor spatial heterogeneity. Additionally, methodological factors affecting the signal in low and high diffusion-sensitizing gradient ranges were explored in phantom studies. The effect of eddy currents and accuracy of b-value determination using a multiple b-value diffusion-weighted MR imaging sequence were investigated in test objects. Diffusion model selection and noise were then investigated in volunteers (n = 5) and breast tumor patients (n = 21) using the Bayesian information criterion. 54.3% of lesion voxels were best fitted by a monoexponential, 26.2% by a stretched-exponential, and 19.5% by a biexponential intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) model. High correlation (0.92) was observed between diffusion coefficients calculated using mono- and stretched-exponential models and moderate (0.59) between monoexponential and IVIM (medians: 0.96/0.84/0.72 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s, respectively). Distortion due to eddy currents depended on the direction of the diffusion gradient and displacement varied between 1 and 6 mm for high b-value images. Shift in the apparent diffusion coefficient due to intrinsic field gradients was compensated for by averaging diffusion data obtained from opposite directions. Pseudodiffusion and intravoxel heterogeneity effects were not observed in approximately half of breast cancer and normal tissue voxels. This result indicates that stretched and IVIM models should be utilized in regional analysis rather than global tumor assessment. Cross terms between diffusion-sensitization gradients and other imaging or susceptibility-related gradients are relevant in clinical protocols, supporting the use of geometric averaging of diffusion-weighted images acquired with diffusion-sensitization gradients in opposite directions.

  13. Multifractal evaluation of the COSMO NWP model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfensberger, Daniel; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Berne, Alexis

    2017-04-01

    Universal multifractals allow to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of spatial phenomena over a wide range of scales witha limited number of scale-invariant parameters. In this work, we perform a multifractal analysis of simulations obtained from the COSMO numerical weather prediction model during three events (one cold front associated with heavy snowfall, one stationary front with stratiform rain and one summer convection event). The first part of the study focuses on the multifractal analysis of water contents in liquid, solid and gas phase and the effect of altitude and topography. The second part of the study focuses on the comparison of the multifractal properties of simulated precipitation intensities at the ground with the QPE product obtained from the Swiss radar composite. The results of this study show that the COSMO simulated water contents are generally strongly non-conservative and for some synoptic conditions show clear spatial scaling breaks. Similarly, in terms of precipitation intensities, COSMO simulations exhibit spatial scaling breaks that are not present on the radar data, indicating that the model is not able to simulate the observed variability at all ranges. Additionally,the spatial and temporal multifractal parameters of the COSMO simulations and the radar composite are shown to not agree well with a simplified spatio-temporal model. ​

  14. Evaluating the double Poisson generalized linear model.

    PubMed

    Zou, Yaotian; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique

    2013-10-01

    The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the applicability of the double Poisson (DP) generalized linear model (GLM) for analyzing motor vehicle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion and (2) compare the performance of the DP GLM with the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit and theoretical soundness. The DP distribution has seldom been investigated and applied since its first introduction two decades ago. The hurdle for applying the DP is related to its normalizing constant (or multiplicative constant) which is not available in closed form. This study proposed a new method to approximate the normalizing constant of the DP with high accuracy and reliability. The DP GLM and COM-Poisson GLM were developed using two observed over-dispersed datasets and one observed under-dispersed dataset. The modeling results indicate that the DP GLM with its normalizing constant approximated by the new method can handle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion. Its performance is comparable to the COM-Poisson GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF), although COM-Poisson GLM provides a slightly better fit. For the over-dispersed data, the DP GLM performs similar to the NB GLM. Considering the fact that the DP GLM can be easily estimated with inexpensive computation and that it is simpler to interpret coefficients, it offers a flexible and efficient alternative for researchers to model count data.

  15. Evaluation and development of physically-based embankment breach models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The CEATI Dam Safety Interest Group (DSIG) working group on embankment erosion and breach modelling has evaluated three physically-based numerical models used to simulate embankment erosion and breach development. The three models identified by the group were considered to be good candidates for fu...

  16. Evaluation and development of physically-based embankment breach models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The CEATI Dam Safety Interest Group (DSIG) working group on embankment erosion and breach modelling has evaluated three physically-based numerical models used to simulate embankment erosion and breach development. The three models identified by the group were considered to be good candidates for fu...

  17. A Context-Restrictive Model for Program Evaluation?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swales,John M.

    1990-01-01

    Discusses a proposed "context adaptive" model for English-as-a-Second-Language program evaluation and suggests that the boundaries are set too narrowly within this model between phenomena and contexts and that the model of the Reading English for Science and Technology program in Guadalajara (Mexico) suffers from this constriction.…

  18. INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation topic is inverse modeling for estimate and evaluation of emissions. The case study presented is the need for seasonal estimates of NH3 emissions for air quality modeling. The inverse modeling application approach is first described, and then the NH

  19. Class Ranking Models for Deans' Letters and Their Psychometric Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blacklow, Robert S.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    A study developed and evaluated five class ranking models for graduating medical students (n=1,283) in which performance data from both basic and clinical sciences could be used to study the models' predictive validity. Two models yielded higher validity; one is recommended for balance of clinical and basic science measures. (MSE)

  20. Evaluation of acid deposition models using principal component spaces

    SciTech Connect

    Cohn, R.D.; Dennis, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to motivate, introduce, and illustrate a useful analytical technique in the evaluation of acid deposition models and other regional models. This technique is used to identify the dominant multivariate relationships present in measured data, and to compare these relationships with those found in the model predictions themselves.

  1. Teachers' Development Model to Authentic Assessment by Empowerment Evaluation Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charoenchai, Charin; Phuseeorn, Songsak; Phengsawat, Waro

    2015-01-01

    The purposes of this study were 1) Study teachers authentic assessment, teachers comprehension of authentic assessment and teachers needs for authentic assessment development. 2) To create teachers development model. 3) Experiment of teachers development model. 4) Evaluate effectiveness of teachers development model. The research is divided into 4…

  2. INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation topic is inverse modeling for estimate and evaluation of emissions. The case study presented is the need for seasonal estimates of NH3 emissions for air quality modeling. The inverse modeling application approach is first described, and then the NH

  3. A MULTILAYER BIOCHEMICAL DRY DEPOSITION MODEL 2. MODEL EVALUATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The multilayer biochemical dry deposition model (MLBC) described in the accompanying paper was tested against half-hourly eddy correlation data from six field sites under a wide range of climate conditions with various plant types. Modeled CO2, O3, SO2<...

  4. Structural equation modeling: building and evaluating causal models: Chapter 8

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, James B.; Scheiner, Samuel M.; Schoolmaster, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Scientists frequently wish to study hypotheses about causal relationships, rather than just statistical associations. This chapter addresses the question of how scientists might approach this ambitious task. Here we describe structural equation modeling (SEM), a general modeling framework for the study of causal hypotheses. Our goals are to (a) concisely describe the methodology, (b) illustrate its utility for investigating ecological systems, and (c) provide guidance for its application. Throughout our presentation, we rely on a study of the effects of human activities on wetland ecosystems to make our description of methodology more tangible. We begin by presenting the fundamental principles of SEM, including both its distinguishing characteristics and the requirements for modeling hypotheses about causal networks. We then illustrate SEM procedures and offer guidelines for conducting SEM analyses. Our focus in this presentation is on basic modeling objectives and core techniques. Pointers to additional modeling options are also given.

  5. [Applying multilevel models in evaluation of bioequivalence (I)].

    PubMed

    Liu, Qiao-lan; Shen, Zhuo-zhi; Chen, Feng; Li, Xiao-song; Yang, Min

    2009-12-01

    This study aims to explore the application value of multilevel models for bioequivalence evaluation. Using a real example of 2 x 4 cross-over experimental design in evaluating bioequivalence of antihypertensive drug, this paper explores complex variance components corresponding to criteria statistics in existing methods recommended by FDA but obtained in multilevel models analysis. Results are compared with those from FDA standard Method of Moments, specifically on the feasibility and applicability of multilevel models in directly assessing the bioequivalence (ABE), the population bioequivalence (PBE) and the individual bioequivalence (IBE). When measuring ln (AUC), results from all variance components of the test and reference groups such as total variance (sigma(TT)(2) and sigma(TR)(2)), between-subject variance (sigma(BT)(2) and sigma(BR)(2)) and within-subject variance (sigma(WT)(2) and sigma(WR)(2)) estimated by simple 2-level models are very close to those that using the FDA Method of Moments. In practice, bioequivalence evaluation can be carried out directly by multilevel models, or by FDA criteria, based on variance components estimated from multilevel models. Both approaches produce consistent results. Multilevel models can be used to evaluate bioequivalence in cross-over test design. Compared to FDA methods, this one is more flexible in decomposing total variance into sub components in order to evaluate the ABE, PBE and IBE. Multilevel model provides a new way into the practice of bioequivalence evaluation.

  6. Evaluation of an Infiltration Model with Microchannels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Serrana, M.; Gulliver, J. S.; Nieber, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    This research goal is to develop and demonstrate the means by which roadside drainage ditches and filter strips can be assigned the appropriate volume reduction credits by infiltration. These vegetated surfaces convey stormwater, infiltrate runoff, and filter and/or settle solids, and are often placed along roads and other impermeable surfaces. Infiltration rates are typically calculated by assuming that water flows as sheet flow over the slope. However, for most intensities water flow occurs in narrow and shallow micro-channels and concentrates in depressions. This channelization reduces the fraction of the soil surface covered with the water coming from the road. The non-uniform distribution of water along a hillslope directly affects infiltration. First, laboratory and field experiments have been conducted to characterize the spatial pattern of flow for stormwater runoff entering onto the surface of a sloped surface in a drainage ditch. In the laboratory experiments different micro-topographies were tested over bare sandy loam soil: a smooth surface, and three and five parallel rills. All the surfaces experienced erosion; the initially smooth surface developed a system of channels over time that increased runoff generation. On average, the initially smooth surfaces infiltrated 10% more volume than the initially rilled surfaces. The field experiments were performed in the side slope of established roadside drainage ditches. Three rates of runoff from a road surface into the swale slope were tested, representing runoff from 1, 2, and 10-year storm events. The average percentage of input runoff water infiltrated in the 32 experiments was 67%, with a 21% standard deviation. Multiple measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity were conducted to account for its spatial variability. Second, a rate-based coupled infiltration and overland model has been designed that calculates stormwater infiltration efficiency of swales. The Green-Ampt-Mein-Larson assumptions were

  7. Comparisons and Evaluation of Hall Thruster Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    electromagnets and to be unaffected by the discharge, so that it can be treated as input data. Both models calculate , to facilitate the solution of the...large number of neutrals are calculated , where collisions are treated with random numbers. This approach is realistic but takes much computation time...cos, 232 vkT mvvvvvg     −∝ (8) where v is the speed, θ the angle with the axial direction, and φ an angle in the plane perpendicular to

  8. The CREATIVE Decontamination Performance Evaluation Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-01

    Model to Describe Penetration of Skin by Sorbed Liquids by Contact”, CRDEC-CR-87100 5. Clarke, A., “Spreading and Imbibition of Liquid Drops on...δy and δz = f•δx δt ≤ δx2 2 D ( 2 + 1/f2) C @ next time step UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Finite Difference Application Drop ...boundaries: 1) Drop : constant source until drop disappears 2) Base of substrate considered impenetrable 3) Sides and top of coupon allow mass to escape

  9. Design Concept Evaluation Using System Throughput Model

    SciTech Connect

    G. Sequeira; W. M. Nutt Ph.D

    2004-05-28

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is currently developing the technical bases to support the submittal of a license application for construction of a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The Office of Repository Development (ORD) is responsible for developing the design of the proposed repository surface facilities for the handling of spent nuclear fuel and high level nuclear waste. Preliminary design activities are underway to sufficiently develop the repository surface facilities design for inclusion in the license application. The design continues to evolve to meet mission needs and to satisfy both regulatory and program requirements. A system engineering approach is being used in the design process since the proposed repository facilities are dynamically linked by a series of sub-systems and complex operations. In addition, the proposed repository facility is a major system element of the overall waste management process being developed by the OCRWM. Such an approach includes iterative probabilistic dynamic simulation as an integral part of the design evolution process. A dynamic simulation tool helps to determine if: (1) the mission and design requirements are complete, robust, and well integrated; (2) the design solutions under development meet the design requirements and mission goals; (3) opportunities exist where the system can be improved and/or optimized; and (4) proposed changes to the mission, and design requirements have a positive or negative impact on overall system performance and if design changes may be necessary to satisfy these changes. This paper will discuss the type of simulation employed to model the waste handling operations. It will then discuss the process being used to develop the Yucca Mountain surface facilities model. The latest simulation model and the results of the simulation and how the data were used in the design

  10. [Effect evaluation of three cell culture models].

    PubMed

    Wang, Aiguo; Xia, Tao; Yuan, Jing; Chen, Xuemin

    2003-11-01

    Primary rat hepatocytes were cultured using three kinds of models in vitro and the enzyme leakage, albumin secretion, and cytochrome P450 1A (CYP 1A) activity were observed. The results showed that the level of LDH in the medium decreased over time in the period of culture. However, on 5 days, LDH showed a significant increase in monolayer culture (MC) while after 8 days LDH was not detected in sandwich culture (SC). The levels of AST and ALT in the medium did not change significantly over the investigated time. The basic CYP 1A activity gradually decreased with time in MC and SC. The decline of CYP 1A in rat hepatocytes was faster in MC than that in SC. This effect was partially reversed by using cytochrome P450 (CYP450) inducers such as omeprazol and 3-methylcholanthrene (3-MC) and the CYP 1A induction was always higher in MC than that in SC. Basic CYP 1A activity in bioreactor was keeped over 2 weeks and the highest albumin production was observed in bioreactor, and next were SC and MC. In conclusion, our results clearly indicated that there have some advantages and disadvantages in each of models in which can address different questions in metabolism of toxicants and drugs.

  11. External Evaluation of Two Fluconazole Infant Population Pharmacokinetic Models.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Michael F; Beechinor, Ryan J; Wade, Kelly C; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian; Hornik, Christoph P; Capparelli, Edmund V; Duara, Shahnaz; Kennedy, Kathleen A; Cohen-Wolkowiez, Michael; Gonzalez, Daniel

    2017-09-11

    Fluconazole is an antifungal agent used for the treatment of invasive candidiasis, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in premature infants. Population pharmacokinetics (PK) models of fluconazole in infants have been previously published by Wade et al. and Momper et al. Here we report the results of the first external evaluation of the predictive performance of both models. We used patient level data from both studies to externally evaluate both PK models. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the model prediction error (PE), mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), prediction-corrected visual predictive check (pcVPC), and normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE). The parameters of each model were re-estimated using both the external and merged datasets. When evaluated with an external data set, the model proposed by Wade et al. showed lower median PE, MPE, and MAPE (0.429 μg/mL, 41.9%, and 57.6%, respectively) compared to the model proposed by Momper et al. (2.45 μg/mL, 188%, and 195%, respectively). The majority of re-estimated parameters were within 20% of their respective original parameter values for all model evaluations. Our analysis determined that though both models are robust, the model proposed by Wade et al. had greater accuracy and precision than the model proposed by Momper et al., likely because it was derived from a patient population with a wider age range. This study highlights the importance of external evaluation of infant population PK models. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  12. Case study of an evaluation coaching model: exploring the role of the evaluator.

    PubMed

    Ensminger, David C; Kallemeyn, Leanne M; Rempert, Tania; Wade, James; Polanin, Megan

    2015-04-01

    This study examined the role of the external evaluator as a coach. More specifically, using an evaluative inquiry framework (Preskill & Torres, 1999a; Preskill & Torres, 1999b), it explored the types of coaching that an evaluator employed to promote individual, team and organizational learning. The study demonstrated that evaluation coaching provided a viable means for an organization with a limited budget to conduct evaluations through support of a coach. It also demonstrated how the coaching processes supported the development of evaluation capacity within the organization. By examining coaching models outside of the field of evaluation, this study identified two forms of coaching--results coaching and developmental coaching--that promoted evaluation capacity building and have not been previously discussed in the evaluation literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Rule based design of conceptual models for formative evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Loretta A.; Chang, Kai; Hale, Joseph P.; Bester, Terri; Rix, Thomas; Wang, Yaowen

    1994-01-01

    A Human-Computer Interface (HCI) Prototyping Environment with embedded evaluation capability has been investigated. This environment will be valuable in developing and refining HCI standards and evaluating program/project interface development, especially Space Station Freedom on-board displays for payload operations. This environment, which allows for rapid prototyping and evaluation of graphical interfaces, includes the following four components: (1) a HCI development tool; (2) a low fidelity simulator development tool; (3) a dynamic, interactive interface between the HCI and the simulator; and (4) an embedded evaluator that evaluates the adequacy of a HCI based on a user's performance. The embedded evaluation tool collects data while the user is interacting with the system and evaluates the adequacy of an interface based on a user's performance. This paper describes the design of conceptual models for the embedded evaluation system using a rule-based approach.

  14. Rule based design of conceptual models for formative evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Loretta A.; Chang, Kai; Hale, Joseph P.; Bester, Terri; Rix, Thomas; Wang, Yaowen

    1994-01-01

    A Human-Computer Interface (HCI) Prototyping Environment with embedded evaluation capability has been investigated. This environment will be valuable in developing and refining HCI standards and evaluating program/project interface development, especially Space Station Freedom on-board displays for payload operations. This environment, which allows for rapid prototyping and evaluation of graphical interfaces, includes the following four components: (1) a HCI development tool, (2) a low fidelity simulator development tool, (3) a dynamic, interactive interface between the HCI and the simulator, and (4) an embedded evaluator that evaluates the adequacy of a HCI based on a user's performance. The embedded evaluation tool collects data while the user is interacting with the system and evaluates the adequacy of an interface based on a user's performance. This paper describes the design of conceptual models for the embedded evaluation system using a rule-based approach.

  15. Faculty performance evaluation: the CIPP-SAPS model.

    PubMed

    Mitcham, M

    1981-11-01

    The issues of faculty performance evaluation for allied health professionals are addressed. Daniel Stufflebeam's CIPP (content-input-process-product) model is introduced and its development in a CIPP-SAPS (self-administrative-peer-student) model is pursued. Data sources for the SAPS portion of the model are discussed. A suggestion for the use of the CIPP-SAPS model within a teaching contract plan is explored.

  16. Industrial Waste Management Evaluation Model Version 3.1

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    IWEM is a screening level ground water model designed to simulate contaminant fate and transport. IWEM v3.1 is the latest version of the IWEM software, which includes additional tools to evaluate the beneficial use of industrial materials

  17. Evaluating Rapid Models for High-Throughput Exposure Forecasting (SOT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    High throughput exposure screening models can provide quantitative predictions for thousands of chemicals; however these predictions must be systematically evaluated for predictive ability. Without the capability to make quantitative, albeit uncertain, forecasts of exposure, the ...

  18. The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through ...

  19. Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Princi...

  20. Evaluating Rapid Models for High-Throughput Exposure Forecasting (SOT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    High throughput exposure screening models can provide quantitative predictions for thousands of chemicals; however these predictions must be systematically evaluated for predictive ability. Without the capability to make quantitative, albeit uncertain, forecasts of exposure, the ...

  1. Solid rocket booster performance evaluation model. Volume 4: Program listing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    All subprograms or routines associated with the solid rocket booster performance evaluation model are indexed in this computer listing. An alphanumeric list of each routine in the index is provided in a table of contents.

  2. EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING STRUCTURES FOR TRICHLOROETHYLENE

    EPA Science Inventory

    A series of PBPK models were developed for trichloroethylene (TCE) to evaluate biological processes that may affect the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of TCE and its metabolites.

  3. The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through ...

  4. EVALUATION OF MULTIPLE PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING STRUCTURES FOR TRICHLOROETHYLENE

    EPA Science Inventory

    A series of PBPK models were developed for trichloroethylene (TCE) to evaluate biological processes that may affect the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of TCE and its metabolites.

  5. Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Princi...

  6. [Development of human embryonic stem cell model for toxicity evaluation].

    PubMed

    Yu, Guang-yan; Cao, Tong; Ouyang, Hong-wei; Peng, Shuang-qing; Deng, Xu-liang; Li, Sheng-lin; Liu, He; Zou, Xiao-hui; Fu, Xin; Peng, Hui; Wang, Xiao-ying; Zhan, Yuan

    2013-02-18

    The current international standard for toxicity screening of biomedical devices and materials recommend the use of immortalized cell lines because of their homogeneous morphologies and infinite proliferation which provide good reproducibility for in vitro cytotoxicity screening. However, most of the widely used immortalized cell lines are derived from animals and may not be representative of normal human cell behavior in vivo, in particular in terms of the cytotoxic and genotoxic response. Therefore, It is vital to develop a model for toxicity evaluation. In our studies, two Chinese human embryonic stem cell (hESC) lines as toxicity model were established. hESC derived tissue/organ cell model for tissue/organ specific toxicity evaluation were developed. The efficiency and accuracy of using hESC model for cytoxicity, embryotoxicity and genotoxicity evaluation were confirmed. The results indicated that hESCs might be good tools for toxicity testing and biosafety evaluation in vitro.

  7. Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

    2017-01-01

    The concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating in each grid cell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product [long-term average total cloud amount (TCA)], cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our results support previous findings that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is still not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP like another model output. Lastly, contrasting cloud simulation performance against each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter, yields no clear conclusions.

  8. The Implementation of a District-Wide Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gess, Diane; And Others

    This publication describes a practicum project that developed a comprehensive educational evaluation system for collecting, storing, and displaying pertinent data for use in planning educational programs at both the district and school level in the City School District of New Rochelle. The resulting New Rochelle Evaluation Model was developed from…

  9. An Emerging Model for Student Feedback: Electronic Distributed Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brunk-Chavez, Beth; Arrigucci, Annette

    2012-01-01

    In this article we address several issues and challenges that the evaluation of writing presents individual instructors and composition programs as a whole. We present electronic distributed evaluation, or EDE, as an emerging model for feedback on student writing and describe how it was integrated into our program's course redesign. Because the…

  10. An Evaluation of Cluster Analytic Approaches to Initial Model Specification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bacon, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    Evaluated the performance of several alternative cluster analytic approaches to initial model specification using population parameter analyses and a Monte Carlo simulation. Of the six cluster approaches evaluated, the one using the correlations of item correlations as a proximity metric and average linking as a clustering algorithm performed the…

  11. Interrater Agreement Evaluation: A Latent Variable Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raykov, Tenko; Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; von Eye, Alexander; Marcoulides, George A.

    2013-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method for evaluation of interrater agreement is outlined. The procedure is useful for point and interval estimation of the degree of agreement among a given set of judges evaluating a group of targets. In addition, the approach allows one to test for identity in underlying thresholds across raters as well as to identify…

  12. Information and complexity measures for hydrologic model evaluation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hydrological models are commonly evaluated through the residual-based performance measures such as the root-mean square error or efficiency criteria. Such measures, however, do not evaluate the degree of similarity of patterns in simulated and measured time series. The objective of this study was to...

  13. An evaluation of recent internal field models. [of earth magnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mead, G. D.

    1979-01-01

    The paper reviews the current status of internal field models and evaluates several recently published models by comparing their predictions with annual means of the magnetic field measured at 140 magnetic observatories from 1973 to 1977. Three of the four models studied, viz. AWC/75, IGS/75, and Pogo 8/71, were nearly equal in their ability to predict the magnitude and direction of the current field. The fourth model, IGRF 1975, was significantly poorer in its ability to predict the current field. All models seemed to be able to extrapolate predictions quite well several years outside the data range used to construct the models.

  14. An evaluation of recent internal field models. [of earth magnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mead, G. D.

    1979-01-01

    The paper reviews the current status of internal field models and evaluates several recently published models by comparing their predictions with annual means of the magnetic field measured at 140 magnetic observatories from 1973 to 1977. Three of the four models studied, viz. AWC/75, IGS/75, and Pogo 8/71, were nearly equal in their ability to predict the magnitude and direction of the current field. The fourth model, IGRF 1975, was significantly poorer in its ability to predict the current field. All models seemed to be able to extrapolate predictions quite well several years outside the data range used to construct the models.

  15. Statistical evaluation and choice of soil water retention models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lennartz, Franz; Müller, Hans-Otfried; Nollau, Volker; Schmitz, Gerd H.; El-Shehawy, Shaban A.

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents the results of statistical investigations for the evaluation of soil water retention models (SWRMs). We employed three different methods developed for model selection in the field of nonlinear regression, namely, simulation studies, analysis of nonlinearity measures, and resampling strategies such as cross validation and bootstrap methods. Using these methods together with small data sets, we evaluated the performance of three exemplarily chosen types of SWRMs with respect to their parameter properties and the reliability of model predictions. The resulting rankings of models show that the favorable models are characterized by few parameters with an almost linear estimation behavior and close to symmetric distributions. To further demonstrate the potential of the statistical methods in the field of model selection, a modification of the four-parameter van Genuchten model is proposed which shows significantly improved and robust statistical properties.

  16. Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS) model: overview and evaluation efforts

    SciTech Connect

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Ryan, T.G.

    1984-01-01

    The development of the MAPPS model has been completed and the model is currently undergoing evaluation. These efforts are addressing a number of identified issues concerning practicality, acceptability, usefulness, and validity. Preliminary analysis of the evaluation data that has been collected indicates that MAPPS will provide comprehensive and reliable data for PRA purposes and for a number of other applications. The MAPPS computer simulation model provides the user with a sophisticated tool for gaining insights into tasks performed by NPP maintenance personnel. Its wide variety of input parameters and output data makes it extremely flexible for application to a number of diverse applications. With the demonstration of favorable model evaluation results, the MAPPS model will represent a valuable source of NPP maintainer reliability data and provide PRA studies with a source of data on maintainers that has previously not existed.

  17. An Evaluation of Unsaturated Flow Models in an Arid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, J.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of two unsaturated flow models in arid regions. The area selected for the study was the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site in Nye County, Nevada. The two models selected for this evaluation were HYDRUS-1D [Simunek et al., 1998] and the SHAW model [Flerchinger and Saxton, 1989]. Approximately 5 years of soil-water and atmospheric data collected from an instrumented weighing lysimeter site near the RWMS were used for building the models with actual initial and boundary conditions representative of the site. Physical processes affecting the site and model performance were explored. Model performance was based on a detailed sensitivity analysis and ultimately on storage comparisons. During the process of developing descriptive model input, procedures for converting hydraulic parameters for each model were explored. In addition, the compilation of atmospheric data collected at the site became a useful tool for developing predictive functions for future studies. The final model results were used to evaluate the capacities of the HYDRUS and SHAW models for predicting soil-moisture movement and variable surface phenomena for bare soil conditions in the arid vadose zone. The development of calibrated models along with the atmospheric and soil data collected at the site provide useful information for predicting future site performance at the RWMS.

  18. The Dynamic Integrated Evaluation Model (DIEM): Achieving Sustainability in Organizational Intervention through a Participatory Evaluation Approach.

    PubMed

    von Thiele Schwarz, Ulrica; Lundmark, Robert; Hasson, Henna

    2016-10-01

    Recently, there have been calls to develop ways of using a participatory approach when conducting interventions, including evaluating the process and context to improve and adapt the intervention as it evolves over time. The need to integrate interventions into daily organizational practices, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful implementation and sustainable changes, has also been highlighted. We propose an evaluation model-the Dynamic Integrated Evaluation Model (DIEM)-that takes this into consideration. In the model, evaluation is fitted into a co-created iterative intervention process, in which the intervention activities can be continuously adapted based on collected data. By explicitly integrating process and context factors, DIEM also considers the dynamic sustainability of the intervention over time. It emphasizes the practical value of these evaluations for organizations, as well as the importance of their rigorousness for research purposes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Evaluating Organic Aerosol Model Performance: Impact of two Embedded Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, W.; Giroux, E.; Roth, H.; Yin, D.

    2004-05-01

    Organic aerosols are important due to their abundance in the polluted lower atmosphere and their impact on human health and vegetation. However, modeling organic aerosols is a very challenging task because of the complexity of aerosol composition, structure, and formation processes. Assumptions and their associated uncertainties in both models and measurement data make model performance evaluation a truly demanding job. Although some assumptions are obvious, others are hidden and embedded, and can significantly impact modeling results, possibly even changing conclusions about model performance. This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of two embedded assumptions on evaluation of organic aerosol model performance. One assumption is about the enthalpy of vaporization widely used in various secondary organic aerosol (SOA) algorithms. The other is about the conversion factor used to obtain ambient organic aerosol concentrations from measured organic carbon. These two assumptions reflect uncertainties in the model and in the ambient measurement data, respectively. For illustration purposes, various choices of the assumed values are implemented in the evaluation process for an air quality model based on CMAQ (the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model). Model simulations are conducted for the Lower Fraser Valley covering Southwest British Columbia, Canada, and Northwest Washington, United States, for a historical pollution episode in 1993. To understand the impact of the assumed enthalpy of vaporization on modeling results, its impact on instantaneous organic aerosol yields (IAY) through partitioning coefficients is analysed first. The analysis shows that utilizing different enthalpy of vaporization values causes changes in the shapes of IAY curves and in the response of SOA formation capability of reactive organic gases to temperature variations. These changes are then carried into the air quality model and cause substantial changes in the organic aerosol modeling

  20. Evaluation of subgrid dispersion models for LES of spray flames

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qing; Zhao, Xinyu; Esclapez, Lucas; Govindaraju, Pavan; Ihme, Matthias

    2016-11-01

    Turbulent dispersion models for particle-laden turbulent flows have been studied extensively over the past few decades, and different modeling approaches have been proposed and tested. However, the significance of the subgrid dispersion model and its influence on the flame dynamics for spray combustion have not been examined. To evaluate the performance of dispersion models for spray combustion, direct numerical simulations (DNS) of three-dimensional counterflow spray flames are studied. The DNS configuration features a series of different droplet sizes to study effects of different Stokes numbers. An a priori comparison of the statistics generated from three subgrid dispersion models is made, for both non-reacting and reacting conditions. Improved agreement with DNS is shown for the stochastic model and the regularized deconvolution model than a closure-free model. The effect of filter sizes in relation to droplet sizes are investigated for all models. Subsequently, a posteriori modeling of the same configuration with different resolutions is performed to compare these models in the presence of other subgrid models. Finally, models for the subgrid closure of scalar transport for multiphase droplet combustion are proposed and evaluated.

  1. Evaluating a novel resident role-modelling programme.

    PubMed

    Sternszus, Robert; Steinert, Yvonne; Bhanji, Farhan; Andonian, Sero; Snell, Linda S

    2017-05-09

    Role modelling is a fundamental method by which students learn from residents. To our knowledge, however, resident-as-teacher curricula have not explicitly addressed resident role modelling. The purpose of this project was to design, implement and evaluate an innovative programme to teach residents about role modelling. The authors designed a resident role-modelling programme and incorporated it into the 2015 and 2016 McGill University resident-as-teacher curriculum. Influenced by experiential and social learning theories, the programme incorporated flipped-classroom and simulation approaches to teach residents to be aware and deliberate role models. Outcomes were assessed through a pre- and immediate post-programme questionnaire evaluating reaction and learning, a delayed post-programme questionnaire evaluating learning, and a retrospective pre-post questionnaire (1 month following the programme) evaluating self-reported behaviour changes. Thirty-three of 38 (87%) residents who participated in the programme completed the evaluation, with 25 residents (66%) completing all questionnaires. Participants rated the programme highly on a five-point Likert scale (where 1 = not helpful and 5 = very helpful; mean score, M = 4.57; standard deviation, SD = 0.50), and showed significant improvement in their perceptions of their importance as role models and their knowledge of deliberate role modelling. Residents also reported an increased use of deliberate role-modelling strategies 1 month after completing the programme. Resident-as-teacher curricula have not explicitly addressed resident role modelling DISCUSSION: The incorporation of resident role modelling into our resident-as-teacher curriculum positively influenced the participants' perceptions of their role-modelling abilities. This programme responds to a gap in resident training and has the potential to guide further programme development in this important and often overlooked area. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons

  2. The Impact of Spatial Correlation and Incommensurability on Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Standard evaluations of air quality models rely heavily on a direct comparison of monitoring data matched with the model output for the grid cell containing the monitor’s location. While such techniques may be adequate for some applications, conclusions are limited by such facto...

  3. Faculty Performance Evaluation: The CIPP-SAPS Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitcham, Maralynne

    1981-01-01

    The issues of faculty performance evaluation for allied health professionals are addressed. Daniel Stufflebeam's CIPP (content-imput-process-product) model is introduced and its development into a CIPP-SAPS (self-administrative-peer- student) model is pursued. (Author/CT)

  4. An Evaluation Model for Competency Based Teacher Preparatory Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denton, Jon J.

    This discussion describes an evaluation model designed to complement a curriculum development project, the primary goal of which is to structure a performance based program for preservice teachers. Data collected from the implementation of this four-phase model can be used to make decisions for developing and changing performance objectives and…

  5. Preliminary Evaluation of the Full-Purpose Partnership Schoolwide Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Joshua S.; Anderson, Jeffrey A.; Abell, Amy K.

    2008-01-01

    The full-purpose partnership (FPP) schoolwide model primarily focuses on prevention and early intervention. This model brings the tenets of service coordination directly into the school and focuses efforts to involve families from a strengths perspective before behavioral issues become significant. A preliminary evaluation has shown that this…

  6. A Model for Integrating Program Development and Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, J. Lynne; Kiernan, Nancy Ellen

    1998-01-01

    A communication model consisting of input from target audience, program delivery, and outcomes (receivers' perception of message) was applied to an osteoporosis-prevention program for working mothers ages 21 to 45. Due to poor completion rate on evaluation instruments and failure of participants to learn key concepts, the model was used to improve…

  7. A Model Vocational Evaluation Center in a Public School System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinones, Wm. A.

    A model public school vocational evaluation center for handicapped students is described. The model's battery of work samples and tests of vocational aptitudes, personal and social adjustment, physical capacities, and work habits are listed. In addition, observation of such work behaviors as remembering instructions, correcting errors, reacting to…

  8. Logic Models: Evaluating Education Doctorates in Educational Administration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creighton, Theodore

    2008-01-01

    The author suggests the Logic Model, used especially in the Health Science field, as a model for evaluating the quality of the educational doctorate (i.e., EdD). The manuscript highlights the newly developed EdD program at Virginia Tech.

  9. The Impact of Spatial Correlation and Incommensurability on Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Standard evaluations of air quality models rely heavily on a direct comparison of monitoring data matched with the model output for the grid cell containing the monitor’s location. While such techniques may be adequate for some applications, conclusions are limited by such facto...

  10. Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMKIP2)

    Treesearch

    Nick Rutter; Richard Essery; John Pomeroy; Nuria Altimir; Kostas Andreadis; Ian Baker; Alan Barr; Paul Bartlett; Aaron Boone; Huiping Deng; Herve Douville; Emanuel Dutra; Kelly Elder; others

    2009-01-01

    Thirty-three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation...

  11. NEW CATEGORICAL METRICS FOR AIR QUALITY MODEL EVALUATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Traditional categorical metrics used in model evaluations are "clear-cut" measures in that the model's ability to predict an exceedance is defined by a fixed threshold concentration and the metrics are defined by observation-forecast sets that are paired both in space and time. T...

  12. A Formative Model to Evaluate Health Services Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marconi, Katherine M.; Rudzinski, Karen A.

    1995-01-01

    A formative evaluation model is proposed for use by administrators of large health services research grant programs. The model assists in assessing the purpose, methodology, and level of analysis of funded research. It is illustrated through a discussion of HIV/AIDS care. (SLD)

  13. A Model for Integrating Program Development and Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, J. Lynne; Kiernan, Nancy Ellen

    1998-01-01

    A communication model consisting of input from target audience, program delivery, and outcomes (receivers' perception of message) was applied to an osteoporosis-prevention program for working mothers ages 21 to 45. Due to poor completion rate on evaluation instruments and failure of participants to learn key concepts, the model was used to improve…

  14. Outline and Preliminary Evaluation of the Classical Digital Library Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacCall, Steven L.; Cleveland, Ana D.; Gibson, Ian E.

    1999-01-01

    Outlines the classical digital library model, which is derived from traditional practices of library and information science professionals, as an alternative to the database retrieval model. Reports preliminary results from an evaluation study of library and information professionals and endusers involved with primary care medicine. (AEF)

  15. NEW CATEGORICAL METRICS FOR AIR QUALITY MODEL EVALUATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Traditional categorical metrics used in model evaluations are "clear-cut" measures in that the model's ability to predict an exceedance is defined by a fixed threshold concentration and the metrics are defined by observation-forecast sets that are paired both in space and time. T...

  16. A Model Vocational Evaluation Center in a Public School System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinones, Wm. A.

    A model public school vocational evaluation center for handicapped students is described. The model's battery of work samples and tests of vocational aptitudes, personal and social adjustment, physical capacities, and work habits are listed. In addition, observation of such work behaviors as remembering instructions, correcting errors, reacting to…

  17. [Application of multilevel models in the evaluation of bioequivalence (II).].

    PubMed

    Liu, Qiao-lan; Shen, Zhuo-zhi; Li, Xiao-song; Chen, Feng; Yang, Min

    2010-03-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to explore the applicability of multivariate multilevel models for bioequivalence evaluation. Using an example of a 4 x 4 cross-over test design in evaluating bioequivalence of homemade and imported rosiglitazone maleate tablets, this paper illustrated the multivariate-model-based method for partitioning total variances of ln(AUC) and ln(C(max)) in the framework of multilevel models. It examined the feasibility of multivariate multilevel models in directly evaluating average bioequivalence (ABE), population bioequivalence (PBE) and individual bioequivalence (IBE). Taking into account the correlation between ln(AUC) and ln(C(max)) of rosiglitazone maleate tablets, the proposed models suggested no statistical difference between the two effect measures in their ABE bioequivalence via joint tests, whilst a contradictive conclusion was derived based on univariate multilevel models. Furthermore, the PBE and IBE for both ln(AUC) and ln(C(max)) of the two types of tablets were assessed with no statistical difference based on estimates of variance components from the proposed models. Multivariate multilevel models could be used to analyze bioequivalence of multiple effect measures simultaneously and they provided a new way of statistical analysis to evaluate bioequivalence.

  18. Evaluating growth models: A case study using PrognosisBC

    Treesearch

    Peter Marshall; Pablo Parysow; Shadrach Akindele

    2008-01-01

    The ability of the PrognosisBC (Version 3.0) growth model to predict tree and stand growth was assessed against a series of remeasured permanent sample plots, including some which had been precommercially thinned. In addition, the model was evaluated for logical consistency across a variety of stand structures using simulation. By the end of the...

  19. Solid rocket booster performance evaluation model. Volume 2: Users manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    This users manual for the solid rocket booster performance evaluation model (SRB-II) contains descriptions of the model, the program options, the required program inputs, the program output format and the program error messages. SRB-II is written in FORTRAN and is operational on both the IBM 370/155 and the MSFC UNIVAC 1108 computers.

  20. Putting Theory-Oriented Evaluation into Practice: A Logic Model Approach for Evaluating SIMGAME

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hense, Jan; Kriz, Willy Christian; Wolfe, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Evaluations of gaming simulations and business games as teaching devices are typically end-state driven. This emphasis fails to detect how the simulation being evaluated does or does not bring about its desired consequences. This paper advances the use of a logic model approach, which possesses a holistic perspective that aims at including all…

  1. Putting Theory-Oriented Evaluation into Practice: A Logic Model Approach for Evaluating SIMGAME

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hense, Jan; Kriz, Willy Christian; Wolfe, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Evaluations of gaming simulations and business games as teaching devices are typically end-state driven. This emphasis fails to detect how the simulation being evaluated does or does not bring about its desired consequences. This paper advances the use of a logic model approach, which possesses a holistic perspective that aims at including all…

  2. A Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation of 8 Clear Sky Models.

    PubMed

    Bruneton, Eric

    2016-10-27

    We provide a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of 8 clear sky models used in Computer Graphics. We compare the models with each other as well as with measurements and with a reference model from the physics community. After a short summary of the physics of the problem, we present the measurements and the reference model, and how we "invert" it to get the model parameters. We then give an overview of each CG model, and detail its scope, its algorithmic complexity, and its results using the same parameters as in the reference model. We also compare the models with a perceptual study. Our quantitative results confirm that the less simplifications and approximations are used to solve the physical equations, the more accurate are the results. We conclude with a discussion of the advantages and drawbacks of each model, and how to further improve their accuracy.

  3. Using a model to evaluate nursing education and professional practise.

    PubMed

    Kapborg, Inez; Fischbein, Siv

    2002-01-01

    The concept of evaluation is becoming increasingly ambiguous and a lot of processes may be called evaluation without any clear definitions. A theoretical frame of reference may function as a compass in an evaluation context when collecting, analysing and interpreting data as well as drawing conclusions. The purpose of the present study was to present and discuss the applicability of an educational interaction model for the evaluation of nursing education programs and the professional competence of nurses. The model combines different dimensions in the educational process, using both a student and an educational perspective. It is not uncommon for evaluations to concentrate on one dimension only, which tends to give an insufficient picture of the process of interaction. Examples are provided from nurse students/nurses education and professional practise to show that the relationship between students' abilities and educational factors, in the form of intentional goals and educational frameworks, have an influence on educational outcome.

  4. Effects of distributed database modeling on evaluation of transaction rollbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mukkamala, Ravi

    1991-01-01

    Data distribution, degree of data replication, and transaction access patterns are key factors in determining the performance of distributed database systems. In order to simplify the evaluation of performance measures, database designers and researchers tend to make simplistic assumptions about the system. The effect is studied of modeling assumptions on the evaluation of one such measure, the number of transaction rollbacks, in a partitioned distributed database system. Six probabilistic models and expressions are developed for the numbers of rollbacks under each of these models. Essentially, the models differ in terms of the available system information. The analytical results so obtained are compared to results from simulation. From here, it is concluded that most of the probabilistic models yield overly conservative estimates of the number of rollbacks. The effect of transaction commutativity on system throughout is also grossly undermined when such models are employed.

  5. Effects of distributed database modeling on evaluation of transaction rollbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mukkamala, Ravi

    1991-01-01

    Data distribution, degree of data replication, and transaction access patterns are key factors in determining the performance of distributed database systems. In order to simplify the evaluation of performance measures, database designers and researchers tend to make simplistic assumptions about the system. Here, researchers investigate the effect of modeling assumptions on the evaluation of one such measure, the number of transaction rollbacks in a partitioned distributed database system. The researchers developed six probabilistic models and expressions for the number of rollbacks under each of these models. Essentially, the models differ in terms of the available system information. The analytical results obtained are compared to results from simulation. It was concluded that most of the probabilistic models yield overly conservative estimates of the number of rollbacks. The effect of transaction commutativity on system throughput is also grossly undermined when such models are employed.

  6. Image quality evaluation with a contour-based perceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grogan, Timothy A.; Keene, David P.

    1992-08-01

    A computational model for the human perception of image brightness utilizing both local and global interactions has been advanced by Grossberg, Mingolla and Todorovic. A simulation of this multi-layer, non-linear recurrent network model can be used to assess perceived image quality. The model is validated by examining the simulation of a classical brightness perception phenomenon, in particular, Glass patterns. Results of a comparative evaluation of three halftoning algorithms are offered which indicate that the model is useful for the evaluation of image processing algorithms. Human subjects ranked the quality of the images halftoned with each of three different algorithms at two different viewing distances. After processing by the brightness perception model, ranking of objective measures of the simulated model output correspond with the rankings assigned by human observers.

  7. The Pantex Process model: Formulations of the evaluation planning module

    SciTech Connect

    JONES,DEAN A.; LAWTON,CRAIG R.; LIST,GEORGE FISHER; TURNQUIST,MARK ALAN

    1999-12-01

    This paper describes formulations of the Evaluation Planning Module that have been developed since its inception. This module is one of the core algorithms in the Pantex Process Model, a computerized model to support production planning in a complex manufacturing system at the Pantex Plant, a US Department of Energy facility. Pantex is responsible for three major DOE programs -- nuclear weapons disposal, stockpile evaluation, and stockpile maintenance -- using shared facilities, technicians, and equipment. The model reflects the interactions of scheduling constraints, material flow constraints, and the availability of required technicians and facilities.

  8. Groundwater modeling in RCRA assessment, corrective action design and evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Rybak, I.; Henley, W.

    1995-12-31

    Groundwater modeling was conducted to design, implement, modify, and terminate corrective action at several RCRA sites in EPA Region 4. Groundwater flow, contaminant transport and unsaturated zone air flow models were used depending on the complexity of the site and the corrective action objectives. Software used included Modflow, Modpath, Quickflow, Bioplume 2, and AIR3D. Site assessment data, such as aquifer properties, site description, and surface water characteristics for each facility were used in constructing the models and designing the remedial systems. Modeling, in turn, specified additional site assessment data requirements for the remedial system design. The specific purpose of computer modeling is discussed with several case studies. These consist, among others, of the following: evaluation of the mechanism of the aquifer system and selection of a cost effective remedial option, evaluation of the capture zone of a pumping system, prediction of the system performance for different and difficult hydrogeologic settings, evaluation of the system performance, and trouble-shooting for the remedial system operation. Modeling is presented as a useful tool for corrective action system design, performance, evaluation, and trouble-shooting. The case studies exemplified the integration of diverse data sources, understanding the mechanism of the aquifer system, and evaluation of the performance of alternative remediation systems in a cost-effective manner. Pollutants of concern include metals and PAHs.

  9. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) oxidant model: description and evaluation plan

    SciTech Connect

    Schere, K.L.; Fabrick, A.J.

    1985-09-01

    The U.S. EPA Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) and NEROS data base are described. The model incorporates a comprehensive description of the physical and chemical processes thought to be important to tropospheric O3 production on 1000-km scales. The data base employed for the first application of the ROM was collected during the summers of 1979 and 1980 in the Northeast U.S. It contains meteorological and air-quality data from regular monitoring networks and from enhanced networks or special field-project measurements during that period. The evaluation procedure that will be used to determine the ROM performance on this data base is outlined. A number of episodes will be simulated from the period July 23 through August 16, 1980, for which performance statistics will be developed. The evaluation of any given day within an episode will proceed in two distinct stages. The first stage will focus on model performance for an individual model realization, irrespective of all other realizations. Model realizations for a given day are functions of the possible flow fields that existed for the day. The second stage will attempt to evaluate model performance using the full probabilistic abilities of the ROM that consider all realizations concurrently. The focus of the evaluation will be on O3. The exact pathway through the evaluation study will be determined by the resources available at the time.

  10. Human Thermal Model Evaluation Using the JSC Human Thermal Database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bue, Grant; Makinen, Janice; Cognata, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Human thermal modeling has considerable long term utility to human space flight. Such models provide a tool to predict crew survivability in support of vehicle design and to evaluate crew response in untested space environments. It is to the benefit of any such model not only to collect relevant experimental data to correlate it against, but also to maintain an experimental standard or benchmark for future development in a readily and rapidly searchable and software accessible format. The Human thermal database project is intended to do just so; to collect relevant data from literature and experimentation and to store the data in a database structure for immediate and future use as a benchmark to judge human thermal models against, in identifying model strengths and weakness, to support model development and improve correlation, and to statistically quantify a model s predictive quality. The human thermal database developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is intended to evaluate a set of widely used human thermal models. This set includes the Wissler human thermal model, a model that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. These models are statistically compared to the current database, which contains experiments of human subjects primarily in air from a literature survey ranging between 1953 and 2004 and from a suited experiment recently performed by the authors, for a quantitative study of relative strength and predictive quality of the models.

  11. A resource dependent protein synthesis model for evaluating synthetic circuits.

    PubMed

    Halter, Wolfgang; Montenbruck, Jan Maximilian; Tuza, Zoltan A; Allgöwer, Frank

    2017-03-09

    Reliable in silico design of synthetic gene networks necessitates novel approaches to model the process of protein synthesis under the influence of limited resources. We present such a novel protein synthesis model which originates from the Ribosome Flow Model and among other things describes the movement of RNA-polymerase and ribosomes on mRNA and DNA templates, respectively. By analyzing the convergence properties of this model based upon geometric considerations, we present additional insights into the dynamic mechanisms of the process of protein synthesis. Further, we demonstrate how this model can be used to evaluate the performance of synthetic gene circuits under different loading scenarios.

  12. Evaluation of the meningitis epidemics risk model in Africa.

    PubMed

    Savory, E C; Cuevas, L E; Yassin, M A; Hart, C A; Molesworth, A M; Thomson, M C

    2006-10-01

    Meningitis epidemics have a strong environmental component in Africa with the most severe epidemics occurring in the Sahelian region known as the Meningitis Belt. The objective of this study is to evaluate an ecological model based on absolute humidity and land cover type to predict the location of these epidemics. The risk model is evaluated prospectively based on epidemics occurring in Africa from January 2000 to April 2004. Seventy-one epidemics occurred during this time period affecting 22% of continental African districts. The model predicted their location with a sensitivity of 88%. The evaluation also suggests that epidemics may be extending south of the Sahel, which is consistent with environmental changes in the region. This model could be used to select priority areas for the introduction of the newly developed conjugate meningococcal vaccines. Further studies are needed to enhance our understanding of the complex relationship between meningitis epidemics and the environment.

  13. Evaluation of dense-gas simulation models. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Zapert, J.G.; Londergan, R.J.; Thistle, H.

    1991-05-01

    The report describes the approach and presents the results of an evaluation study of seven dense gas simulation models using data from three experimental programs. The models evaluated are two in the public domain (DEGADIS and SLAB) and five that are proprietary (AIRTOX, CHARM, FOCUS, SAFEMODE, and TRACE). The data bases used in the evaluation are the Desert Tortoise Pressurized Ammonia Releases, Burro Liquefied Natural Gas Spill Tests and the Goldfish Anhydrous Hydroflouric Acid Spill Experiments. A uniform set of performance statistics are calculated and tabulated to compare maximum observed concentrations and cloud half-width to those predicted by each model. None of the models demonstrated good performance consistently for all three experimental programs.

  14. Enhanced Battle Dynamics for the Force Evaluation Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-09-01

    powerful model . The ability of FORCEM to draw from a larger inventory of ATCAL Phase I results will be examined. The last section will discuss areas of... model continually keeps track of the current inventories of personnel and weapon systems by type and location. It also keeps track of the command...THE ORCE EVALUATION MODEL by Wallace A. Price September 1987 Thesis Advisor: Sam Parry Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited , 0 - h

  15. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ustun, A.; Abbak, R. A.

    2010-12-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory.

  16. Evaluating performances of simplified physically based landslide susceptibility models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Formetta, Giuseppe; Versace, Pasquale

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall induced shallow landslides cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Prediction of shallow landslides susceptible locations is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, and statistics. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. This paper presents a package of GIS based models for landslide susceptibility analysis. It was integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model using the Object Modeling System (OMS) modeling framework. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslides susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for models verifications. It computes eight goodness of fit indices (GOF) by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurements data. Moreover, the package integration in NewAge-JGrass allows the use of other components such as geographic information system tools to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system offers the possibility to investigate and fairly compare the quality and the robustness of models and models parameters, according a procedure that includes: i) model parameters estimation by optimizing each of the GOF index separately, ii) models evaluation in the ROC plane by using each of the optimal parameter set, and iii) GOF robustness evaluation by assessing their sensitivity to the input parameter variation. This procedure was repeated for all three models. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia municipality. The analysis provided that among all the optimized indices and all the three models, Average Index (AI) optimization coupled with model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. This research was funded by PON Project No. 01_01503 "Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk

  17. Evaluation of the usefulness of 2 prediction models of clinical prediction models in physical therapy: a qualitative process evaluation.

    PubMed

    van Oort, Lieke; Verhagen, Arianne; Koes, Bart; de Vet, Riekie; Anema, Han; Heymans, Martijn

    2014-06-01

    The purposes of this study were to (1) evaluate the usefulness of 2 prediction models by assessing the actual use and advantages/disadvantages of application in daily clinical practice and (2) propose recommendations to enhance their implementation. Physical therapists working in 283 practices in the area of Breda (the Netherlands) were invited to participate in this study. Two prediction models were presented: (1) to predict persistent shoulder pain and (2) to predict the preferable treatment in nonspecific neck pain. Participants were asked to apply both models in practice. After 2 months, their opinions about the usefulness of both models were gathered during a focus group meeting or by using an online questionnaire in order to identify the most important advantages/disadvantages of each prediction model. In total, 46 physical therapists (13.8%) of 39 practices participated. Evaluative data were available from 32 participants who used the shoulder model 102 times and the neck model 126 times. For the shoulder model, the most frequent advantage (mentioned 14 times) was that it enabled physical therapists to estimate a motivated prognosis, that is, a prognosis based on the score of the model. The most frequent mentioned disadvantage was that participants expressed their doubts about the validity of the model because the model initially was developed for usage in a general practice setting. For the neck model, the most frequently mentioned advantage (29 times) was that the model was easy to interpret. The most important disadvantage (mentioned 14 times) was that the model only takes a few treatment options into account. The physical therapists participating in this study reported that both models evaluated in this study were not easy to use in daily practice. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend that these models are modified to meet the practical needs of the therapist, before assessing their impact on daily clinical care and patient outcomes

  18. Evaluation of the suicide prevention program in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, using the CIPP evaluation model.

    PubMed

    Ho, Wen-Wei; Chen, Wei-Jen; Ho, Chi-Kung; Lee, Ming-Been; Chen, Cheng-Chung; Chou, Frank Huang-Chih

    2011-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Kaohsiung Suicide Prevention Center (KSPC) of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, during the period from June 2005 to June 2008. We used a modified CIPP evaluation model to evaluate the suicide prevention program in Kaohsiung. Four evaluation models were applied to evaluate the KSPC: a context evaluation of the background and origin of the center, an input evaluation of the resources of the center, a process evaluation of the activities of the suicide prevention project, and a product evaluation of the ascertainment of project objectives. The context evaluation revealed that the task of the KSPC is to lower mortality. The input evaluation assessed the efficiency of manpower and the grants supported by Taiwan's Department of Health and Kaohsiung City government's Bureau of Health. In the process evaluation, we inspected the suicide prevention strategies of the KSPC, which are a modified version of the National Suicide Prevention Strategy of Australia. In the product evaluation, four major objectives were evaluated: (1) the suicide rate in Kaohsiung, (2) the reported suicidal cases, (3) crisis line calls, and (4) telephone counseling. From 2005 to 2008, the number of telephone counseling sessions (1,432, 2,010, 7,051, 12,517) and crisis line calls (0, 4,320, 10,339, 14,502) increased. Because of the increase in reported suicidal cases (1,328, 2,625, 2,795, and 2,989, respectively), cases which were underreported in the past, we have increasingly been able to contact the people who need help. During this same time period, the half-year suicide re-attempt rate decreased significantly for those who received services, and the committed suicide rate (21.4, 20.1, 18.2, and 17.8 per 100,000 populations, respectively) also decreased. The suicide prevention program in Kaohsiung is worth implementing on a continual basis if financial constraints are addressed.

  19. Compartmental models for apical efflux by P-glycoprotein. Part 1. Evaluation of model complexity

    PubMed Central

    Nagar, Swati; Tucker, Jalia; Weiskircher, Erica A.; Bhoopathy, Siddhartha; Hidalgo, Ismael J.; Korzekwa, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Purpose With the goal of quantifying P-gp transport kinetics, Part 1 of these manuscripts evaluates different compartmental models and Part 2 applies these models to kinetic data. Methods Models were developed to simulate the effect of apical efflux transporters on intracellular concentrations of six drugs. The effect of experimental variability on model predictions was evaluated. Several models were evaluated, and characteristics including membrane configuration, lipid content, and apical surface area (asa) were varied. Results Passive permeabilities from MDCK-MDR1 cells in the presence of cyclosporine gave lower model errors than from MDCK control cells. Consistent with the results in Part 2, model configuration had little impact on calculated model errors. The 5-compartment model was the simplest model that reproduced experimental lag times. Lipid content and asa had minimal effect on model errors, predicted lag times, and intracellular concentrations. Including endogenous basolateral uptake activity can decrease model errors. Models with and without explicit membrane barriers differed markedly in their predicted intracellular concentrations for basolateral drug exposure. Single point data resulted in clearances similar to time course data. Conclusions Compartmental models are useful to evaluate the impact of efflux transporters on intracellular concentrations. Whereas a 3-compartment model may be sufficient to predict the impact of transporters that efflux drugs from the cell, a 5-compartment model with explicit membranes may be required to predict intracellular concentrations when efflux occurs from the membrane. More complex models including additional compartments may be unnecessary. PMID:24019023

  20. New model framework and structure and the commonality evaluation model. [concerning unmanned spacecraft projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The development of a framework and structure for shuttle era unmanned spacecraft projects and the development of a commonality evaluation model is documented. The methodology developed for model utilization in performing cost trades and comparative evaluations for commonality studies is discussed. The model framework consists of categories of activities associated with the spacecraft system's development process. The model structure describes the physical elements to be treated as separate identifiable entities. Cost estimating relationships for subsystem and program-level components were calculated.

  1. A model to evaluate quality and effectiveness of disease management.

    PubMed

    Lemmens, K M M; Nieboer, A P; van Schayck, C P; Asin, J D; Huijsman, R

    2008-12-01

    Disease management has emerged as a new strategy to enhance quality of care for patients suffering from chronic conditions, and to control healthcare costs. So far, however, the effects of this strategy remain unclear. Although current models define the concept of disease management, they do not provide a systematic development or an explanatory theory of how disease management affects the outcomes of care. The objective of this paper is to present a framework for valid evaluation of disease-management initiatives. The evaluation model is built on two pillars of disease management: patient-related and professional-directed interventions. The effectiveness of these interventions is thought to be affected by the organisational design of the healthcare system. Disease management requires a multifaceted approach; hence disease-management programme evaluations should focus on the effects of multiple interventions, namely patient-related, professional-directed and organisational interventions. The framework has been built upon the conceptualisation of these disease-management interventions. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms of these interventions revealed that learning and behavioural theories support the core assumptions of disease management. The evaluation model can be used to identify the components of disease-management programmes and the mechanisms behind them, making valid comparison feasible. In addition, this model links the programme interventions to indicators that can be used to evaluate the disease-management programme. Consistent use of this framework will enable comparisons among disease-management programmes and outcomes in evaluation research.

  2. Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Colleen; Gardoni, Paolo; Harris, Charles E

    2011-09-01

    Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

  3. Evaluation of artificial intelligence based models for chemical biodegradability prediction.

    PubMed

    Baker, James R; Gamberger, Dragan; Mihelcic, James R; Sabljić, Aleksandar

    2004-12-31

    This study presents a review of biodegradability modeling efforts including a detailed assessment of two models developed using an artificial intelligence based methodology. Validation results for these models using an independent, quality reviewed database, demonstrate that the models perform well when compared to another commonly used biodegradability model, against the same data. The ability of models induced by an artificial intelligence methodology to accommodate complex interactions in detailed systems, and the demonstrated reliability of the approach evaluated by this study, indicate that the methodology may have application in broadening the scope of biodegradability models. Given adequate data for biodegradability of chemicals under environmental conditions, this may allow for the development of future models that include such things as surface interface impacts on biodegradability for example.

  4. Evaluating Vocational Educators' Training Programs: A Kirkpatrick-Inspired Evaluation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravicchio, Fabrizio; Trentin, Guglielmo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article is to describe the assessment model adopted by the SCINTILLA Project, a project in Italy aimed at the online vocational training of young, seriously-disabled subjects and their subsequent work inclusion in smart-work mode. It will thus describe the model worked out for evaluation of the training program conceived for the…

  5. Evaluating alternate biokinetic models for trace pollutant cometabolism.

    PubMed

    Liu, Li; Binning, Philip J; Smets, Barth F

    2015-02-17

    Mathematical models of cometabolic biodegradation kinetics can improve our understanding of the relevant microbial reactions and allow us to design in situ or in-reactor applications of cometabolic bioremediation. A variety of models are available, but their ability to describe experimental data has not been systematically evaluated for a variety of operational/experimental conditions. Here five different models were considered: first-order; Michaelis-Menten; reductant; competition; and combined models. The models were assessed on their ability to fit data from simulated batch experiments covering a realistic range of experimental conditions. The simulated observations were generated by using the most complex model structure and parameters based on the literature, with added experimental error. Three criteria were used to evaluate model fit: ability to fit the simulated experimental data, identifiability of parameters using a colinearity analysis, and suitability of the model size and complexity using the Bayesian and Akaike Information criteria. Results show that no single model fits data well for a range of experimental conditions. The reductant model achieved best results, but required very different parameter sets to simulate each experiment. Parameter nonuniqueness was likely to be due to the parameter correlation. These results suggest that the cometabolic models must be further developed if they are to reliably simulate experimental and operational data.

  6. Study on Turbulent Modeling in Gas Entrainment Evaluation Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Kei; Ohshima, Hiroyuki; Nakamine, Yoshiaki; Imai, Yasutomo

    Suppression of gas entrainment (GE) phenomena caused by free surface vortices are very important to establish an economically superior design of the sodium-cooled fast reactor in Japan (JSFR). However, due to the non-linearity and/or locality of the GE phenomena, it is not easy to evaluate the occurrences of the GE phenomena accurately. In other words, the onset condition of the GE phenomena in the JSFR is not predicted easily based on scaled-model and/or partial-model experiments. Therefore, the authors are developing a CFD-based evaluation method in which the non-linearity and locality of the GE phenomena can be considered. In the evaluation method, macroscopic vortex parameters, e.g. circulation, are determined by three-dimensional CFD and then, GE-related parameters, e.g. gas core (GC) length, are calculated by using the Burgers vortex model. This procedure is efficient to evaluate the GE phenomena in the JSFR. However, it is well known that the Burgers vortex model tends to overestimate the GC length due to the lack of considerations on some physical mechanisms. Therefore, in this study, the authors develop a turbulent vortex model to evaluate the GE phenomena more accurately. Then, the improved GE evaluation method with the turbulent viscosity model is validated by analyzing the GC lengths observed in a simple experiment. The evaluation results show that the GC lengths analyzed by the improved method are shorter in comparison to the original method, and give better agreement with the experimental data.

  7. Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; hide

    2017-01-01

    Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all

  8. Global gridded crop model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; Iizumi, Toshichika; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jones, Curtis; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lawrence, Peter; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Ray, Deepak K.; Reddy, Ashwan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Sakurai, Gen; Schmid, Erwin; Skalsky, Rastislav; Song, Carol X.; Wang, Xuhui; de Wit, Allard; Yang, Hong

    2017-04-01

    Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all

  9. A Generic Evaluation Model for Semantic Web Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafiq, Omair

    Semantic Web Services research has gained momentum over the last few Years and by now several realizations exist. They are being used in a number of industrial use-cases. Soon software developers will be expected to use this infrastructure to build their B2B applications requiring dynamic integration. However, there is still a lack of guidelines for the evaluation of tools developed to realize Semantic Web Services and applications built on top of them. In normal software engineering practice such guidelines can already be found for traditional component-based systems. Also some efforts are being made to build performance models for servicebased systems. Drawing on these related efforts in component-oriented and servicebased systems, we identified the need for a generic evaluation model for Semantic Web Services applicable to any realization. The generic evaluation model will help users and customers to orient their systems and solutions towards using Semantic Web Services. In this chapter, we have presented the requirements for the generic evaluation model for Semantic Web Services and further discussed the initial steps that we took to sketch such a model. Finally, we discuss related activities for evaluating semantic technologies.

  10. How Do You Evaluate Everyone Who Isn't a Teacher? An Adaptable Evaluation Model for Professional Support Personnel.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stronge, James H.; And Others

    The evaluation of professional support personnel in the schools has been a neglected area in educational evaluation. The Center for Research on Educational Accountability and Teacher Evaluation (CREATE) has worked to develop a conceptually sound evaluation model and then to translate the model into practical evaluation procedures that facilitate…

  11. Evaluation of potential crushed-salt constitutive models

    SciTech Connect

    Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Sambeek, L.L. Van; Chen, R.; Pfeifle, T.W.; Nieland, J.D.

    1995-12-01

    Constitutive models describing the deformation of crushed salt are presented in this report. Ten constitutive models with potential to describe the phenomenological and micromechanical processes for crushed salt were selected from a literature search. Three of these ten constitutive models, termed Sjaardema-Krieg, Zeuch, and Spiers models, were adopted as candidate constitutive models. The candidate constitutive models were generalized in a consistent manner to three-dimensional states of stress and modified to include the effects of temperature, grain size, and moisture content. A database including hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and southeastern New Mexico salt was used to determine material parameters for the candidate constitutive models. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to data from the hydrostatic consolidation tests, the shear consolidation tests, and a combination of the shear and hydrostatic tests produces three sets of material parameter values for the candidate models. The change in material parameter values from test group to test group indicates the empirical nature of the models. To evaluate the predictive capability of the candidate models, each parameter value set was used to predict each of the tests in the database. Based on the fitting statistics and the ability of the models to predict the test data, the Spiers model appeared to perform slightly better than the other two candidate models. The work reported here is a first-of-its kind evaluation of constitutive models for reconsolidation of crushed salt. Questions remain to be answered. Deficiencies in models and databases are identified and recommendations for future work are made. 85 refs.

  12. [Evaluation of landscape connectivity based on least-cost model].

    PubMed

    Wu, Chang-Guang; Zhou, Zhi-Xiang; Wang, Peng-Cheng; Xiao, Wen-Fa; Teng, Ming-Jun; Peng, Li

    2009-08-01

    Landscape connectivity, as a dominant factor affecting species dispersal, reflects the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes organisms' movement among resources patches. It is also an important indicator in sustainable land use and biological conservation. Least-cost model originates from graph theory, and integrates the detailed geographical information with organisms' behavioral characteristics in the landscape. Through cost distance analysis, this model can describe the species connectivity in heterogeneous landscape intuitively and visually. Due to the simple algorithm performed in GIS packages and the demand of moderate data information, least-cost model has gained extensive attention in the evaluation of large-scale landscape connectivity. Based on the current studies of landscape connectivity, this paper elaborated the significance, principles, and operation processes of least-cost model in evaluating landscape connectivity, and discussed the existing problems of the model in its practical applications, which would benefit the further related studies and biodiversity conservation.

  13. Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    A commonly used landscape model to simulate wetland change – the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM) – has rarely been explicitly assessed for its prediction accuracy. Here, we evaluated this model using recently proposed neutral models – including the random constraint matc...

  14. Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    A commonly used landscape model to simulate wetland change – the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM) – has rarely been explicitly assessed for its prediction accuracy. Here, we evaluated this model using recently proposed neutral models – including the random constraint matc...

  15. Evaluating snow models with varying process representations for hydrological applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnusson, Jan; Wever, Nander; Essery, Richard; Helbig, Nora; Winstral, Adam; Jonas, Tobias

    2015-04-01

    Much effort has been invested in developing snow models over several decades, resulting in a wide variety of empirical and physically based snow models. For the most part, these models are built on similar principles. The greatest differences are found in how each model parameterizes individual processes (e.g., surface albedo and snow compaction). Parameterization choices naturally span a wide range of complexities. In this study, we evaluate the performance of different snow model parameterizations for hydrological applications using an existing multimodel energy-balance framework and data from two well-instrumented alpine sites with seasonal snow cover. We also include two temperature-index snow models and an intensive, physically based multilayer snow model in our analyses. Our results show that snow mass observations provide useful information for evaluating the ability of a model to predict snowpack runoff, whereas snow depth data alone are not. For snow mass and runoff, the energy-balance models appear transferable between our two study sites, a behavior which is not observed for snow surface temperature predictions due to site-specificity of turbulent heat transfer formulations. Errors in the input and validation data, rather than model formulation, seem to be the greatest factor affecting model performance. The three model types provide similar ability to reproduce daily observed snowpack runoff when appropriate model structures are chosen. Model complexity was not a determinant for predicting daily snowpack mass and runoff reliably. Our study shows the usefulness of the multimodel framework for identifying appropriate models under given constraints such as data availability, properties of interest and computational cost.

  16. Evaluating human performance modeling for system assessment: Promise and problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patterson, Robert W.; Young, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The development and evaluation of computational human performance models is examined. An intention is to develop models which can be used to interact with system prototypes and simulations to perform system assessment. Currently LR is working on a set of models emulating cognitive, psychomotor, auditory, and visual activity for multiple operator positions of a command and control simulation system. These models, developed in conjunction with BBN Systems and Technologies, function within the simulation environment and allow for both unmanned system assessment and manned (human-in-loop) assessment of system interface and team interactions. These are relatively generic models with built-in flexibility which allows modification of some model parameters. These models have great potential for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of system design, test, and evaluation. However, the extent of the practical utility of these models is unclear. Initial verification efforts comparing model performance within the simulation to actual human operators on a similar, independent simulation have been performed and current efforts are directed at comparing human and model performance within the same simulation environment.

  17. Human Thermal Model Evaluation Using the JSC Human Thermal Database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cognata, T.; Bue, G.; Makinen, J.

    2011-01-01

    The human thermal database developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is used to evaluate a set of widely used human thermal models. This database will facilitate a more accurate evaluation of human thermoregulatory response using in a variety of situations, including those situations that might otherwise prove too dangerous for actual testing--such as extreme hot or cold splashdown conditions. This set includes the Wissler human thermal model, a model that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. These models are statistically compared to the current database, which contains experiments of human subjects primarily in air from a literature survey ranging between 1953 and 2004 and from a suited experiment recently performed by the authors, for a quantitative study of relative strength and predictive quality of the models. Human thermal modeling has considerable long term utility to human space flight. Such models provide a tool to predict crew survivability in support of vehicle design and to evaluate crew response in untested environments. It is to the benefit of any such model not only to collect relevant experimental data to correlate it against, but also to maintain an experimental standard or benchmark for future development in a readily and rapidly searchable and software accessible format. The Human thermal database project is intended to do just so; to collect relevant data from literature and experimentation and to store the data in a database structure for immediate and future use as a benchmark to judge human thermal models against, in identifying model strengths and weakness, to support model development and improve correlation, and to statistically quantify a model s predictive quality.

  18. Evaluation of an Individual Placement and Support model (IPS) program.

    PubMed

    Lucca, Anna M; Henry, Alexis D; Banks, Steven; Simon, Lorna; Page, Stephanie

    2004-01-01

    While randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have helped to establish Individual Placement and Support (IPS) programs as an evidence-based practice, it is important to evaluate whether "real world" IPS programs can be implemented with fidelity and achieve outcomes comparable to programs evaluated in RCTs. The current evaluation examined retrospectively employment outcomes for go participants from an IPS-model Services for Employment and Education (SEE) program in Massachusetts over a 4.5-year period. Evaluators accessed demographic, functioning, and employment data from three sources--SEE program records/database, clinical records, and the Massachusetts Department of Mental Health Client Tracking system. Results indicate that the SEE program maintained high IPS fidelity and achieved employment outcomes comparable or superior to other SE and IPS model programs described in the literature.

  19. Process evaluation of an integrated model of discharge planning.

    PubMed

    LeClerc, M; Wells, D L

    2001-01-01

    In this study, a new, empirically-derived model of discharge planning for acutely-ill elderly was evaluated to determine (a) whether it could be implemented in a hospital setting, and (b) what facilitated or challenged the implementation. The process evaluation involved four case studies conducted on three in-patient units of two acute-care hospitals. Data were analyzed using explanation-building and case comparison methods. Three main study results emerged: (a) The integrated model had the potential to be implemented in a hospital setting when certain conditions were in place, (b) use of the integrated approach to discharge planning contributed to patient satisfaction, and (c) the materials developed as part of the discharge planning protocol required only minor formatting modifications in order to be rendered user-friendly. In this article, recommendations are made that will facilitate the model's implementation and utilization in other clinical settings and ongoing and future process evaluations.

  20. Vestibular models for design and evaluation of flight simulator motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bussolari, S. R.; Sullivan, R. B.; Young, L. R.

    1986-01-01

    The use of spatial orientation models in the design and evaluation of control systems for motion-base flight simulators is investigated experimentally. The development of a high-fidelity motion drive controller using an optimal control approach based on human vestibular models is described. The formulation and implementation of the optimal washout system are discussed. The effectiveness of the motion washout system was evaluated by studying the response of six motion washout systems to the NASA/AMES Vertical Motion Simulator for a single dash-quick-stop maneuver. The effects of the motion washout system on pilot performance and simulator acceptability are examined. The data reveal that human spatial orientation models are useful for the design and evaluation of flight simulator motion fidelity.

  1. Evaluation of ADAM/1 model for advanced coal extraction concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deshpande, G. K.; Gangal, M. D.

    1982-01-01

    Several existing computer programs for estimating life cycle cost of mining systems were evaluated. A commercially available program, ADAM/1 was found to be satisfactory in relation to the needs of the advanced coal extraction project. Two test cases were run to confirm the ability of the program to handle nonconventional mining equipment and procedures. The results were satisfactory. The model, therefore, is recommended to the project team for evaluation of their conceptual designs.

  2. Steel Containment Vessel Model Test: Results and Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Costello, J.F.; Hashimote, T.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Luk, V.K.

    1999-03-01

    A high pressure test of the steel containment vessel (SCV) model was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA. The test model is a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of an improved Mark II boiling water reactor (BWR) containment. A concentric steel contact structure (CS), installed over the SCV model and separated at a nominally uniform distance from it, provided a simplified representation of a reactor shield building in the actual plant. The SCV model and contact structure were instrumented with strain gages and displacement transducers to record the deformation behavior of the SCV model during the high pressure test. This paper summarizes the conduct and the results of the high pressure test and discusses the posttest metallurgical evaluation results on specimens removed from the SCV model.

  3. Evaluation of Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties for Spacecraft Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux, dose, and activation measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives a summary of the model-data given in a companion report. Results from the model comparisons with flight data show, for example, that the AP8 model underpredicts the trapped proton flux at low altitudes by a factor of about two (independent of proton energy and solar cycle conditions), and that the AE8 model overpredict the flux in the outer electron belt be an order of magnitude or more.

  4. Evaluation of Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties for Spacecraft Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux, dose, and activation measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP, LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir Space Station. This report gives a summary of the model-data comparisons-detailed results are given in a companion report. Results from the model comparisons with flic,ht data show, for example, the AP8 model underpredicts the trapped proton flux at low altitudes by a factor of about two (independent of proton energy and solar cycle conditions), and that the AE8 model overpredicts the flux in the outer electron belt by an order of magnitude or more.

  5. Development and evaluation of thermal model reduction algorithms for spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deiml, Michael; Suderland, Martin; Reiss, Philipp; Czupalla, Markus

    2015-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the topic of the reduction of thermal models of spacecraft. The work presented here has been conducted in cooperation with the company OHB AG, formerly Kayser-Threde GmbH, and the Institute of Astronautics at Technische Universität München with the goal to shorten and automatize the time-consuming and manual process of thermal model reduction. The reduction of thermal models can be divided into the simplification of the geometry model for calculation of external heat flows and radiative couplings and into the reduction of the underlying mathematical model. For simplification a method has been developed which approximates the reduced geometry model with the help of an optimization algorithm. Different linear and nonlinear model reduction techniques have been evaluated for their applicability in reduction of the mathematical model. Thereby the compatibility with the thermal analysis tool ESATAN-TMS is of major concern, which restricts the useful application of these methods. Additional model reduction methods have been developed, which account to these constraints. The Matrix Reduction method allows the approximation of the differential equation to reference values exactly expect for numerical errors. The summation method enables a useful, applicable reduction of thermal models that can be used in industry. In this work a framework for model reduction of thermal models has been created, which can be used together with a newly developed graphical user interface for the reduction of thermal models in industry.

  6. Ensemble-based evaluation for protein structure models.

    PubMed

    Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kihara, Daisuke

    2016-06-15

    Comparing protein tertiary structures is a fundamental procedure in structural biology and protein bioinformatics. Structure comparison is important particularly for evaluating computational protein structure models. Most of the model structure evaluation methods perform rigid body superimposition of a structure model to its crystal structure and measure the difference of the corresponding residue or atom positions between them. However, these methods neglect intrinsic flexibility of proteins by treating the native structure as a rigid molecule. Because different parts of proteins have different levels of flexibility, for example, exposed loop regions are usually more flexible than the core region of a protein structure, disagreement of a model to the native needs to be evaluated differently depending on the flexibility of residues in a protein. We propose a score named FlexScore for comparing protein structures that consider flexibility of each residue in the native state of proteins. Flexibility information may be extracted from experiments such as NMR or molecular dynamics simulation. FlexScore considers an ensemble of conformations of a protein described as a multivariate Gaussian distribution of atomic displacements and compares a query computational model with the ensemble. We compare FlexScore with other commonly used structure similarity scores over various examples. FlexScore agrees with experts' intuitive assessment of computational models and provides information of practical usefulness of models. https://bitbucket.org/mjamroz/flexscore dkihara@purdue.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  7. Evaluation of performance of predictive models for deoxynivalenol in wheat.

    PubMed

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of two predictive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat at harvest in the Netherlands, including the use of weather forecast data and external model validation. Data were collected in a different year and from different wheat fields than data used for model development. The two models were run for six preset scenarios, varying in the period for which weather forecast data were used, from zero-day (historical data only) to a 13-day period around wheat flowering. Model predictions using forecast weather data were compared to those using historical data. Furthermore, model predictions using historical weather data were evaluated against observed deoxynivalenol contamination of the wheat fields. Results showed that the use of weather forecast data rather than observed data only slightly influenced model predictions. The percent of correct model predictions, given a threshold of 1,250 μg/kg (legal limit in European Union), was about 95% for the two models. However, only three samples had a deoxynivalenol concentration above this threshold, and the models were not able to predict these samples correctly. It was concluded that two- week weather forecast data can reliable be used in descriptive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat, resulting in more timely model predictions. The two models are able to predict lower deoxynivalenol contamination correctly, but model performance in situations with high deoxynivalenol contamination needs to be further validated. This will need years with conducive environmental conditions for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: monitoring and evaluating interventions.

    PubMed

    Michael, Edwin; Malecela-Lazaro, Mwele N; Maegga, Bertha T A; Fischer, Peter; Kazura, James W

    2006-11-01

    Monitoring and evaluation are crucially important to the scientific management of any mass parasite control programme. Monitoring enables the effectiveness of implemented actions to be assessed and necessary adaptations to be identified; it also determines when management objectives are achieved. Parasite transmission models can provide a scientific template for informing the optimal design of such monitoring programmes. Here, we illustrate the usefulness of using a model-based approach for monitoring and evaluating anti-parasite interventions and discuss issues that need addressing. We focus on the use of such an approach for the control and/or elimination of the vector-borne parasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis.

  9. Evaluating supervised topic models in the presence of OCR errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Daniel; Ringger, Eric; Seppi, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Supervised topic models are promising tools for text analytics that simultaneously model topical patterns in document collections and relationships between those topics and document metadata, such as timestamps. We examine empirically the effect of OCR noise on the ability of supervised topic models to produce high quality output through a series of experiments in which we evaluate three supervised topic models and a naive baseline on synthetic OCR data having various levels of degradation and on real OCR data from two different decades. The evaluation includes experiments with and without feature selection. Our results suggest that supervised topic models are no better, or at least not much better in terms of their robustness to OCR errors, than unsupervised topic models and that feature selection has the mixed result of improving topic quality while harming metadata prediction quality. For users of topic modeling methods on OCR data, supervised topic models do not yet solve the problem of finding better topics than the original unsupervised topic models.

  10. Accuracy evaluation of a numerical simulation model of nasal airflow.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jiuxing; Han, Demin; Zhang, Luo

    2014-05-01

    Our numerical simulation model provides an accurate reflection of nasal airflow, and the results were validated by clinical measurements. To evaluate the accuracy of a numerical simulation model of nasal airflow. Ten volunteers with normal nasal cavities underwent CT, acoustic rhinometry, and rhinomanometry. CT data were uploaded into Mimics, ICEM-CFD, Fluent, and CFD-Post software for three-dimensional modeling, finite element grid division, transient calculations, and analysis, respectively. Velocity and pressure data of airflow were obtained during the normal respiratory cycle. The accuracy of the simulation was evaluated by two methods: acoustic rhinometry measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the anatomic model, and rhinomanometry measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nasal resistance values obtained by numerical simulation. There were no significant differences between the values describing the model and the acoustic rhinometry measurements, the nasal resistance values obtained by numerical simulation. The airflow through the nasal cavity was mainly laminar. The maximum velocities were measured at the nasal valve, the amplitudes of all velocity curves at locations beyond the nasal valve were reduced. The amplitudes of the pressure curves increased from the front to the back of the airway.

  11. Metric Evaluation Pipeline for 3d Modeling of Urban Scenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosch, M.; Leichtman, A.; Chilcott, D.; Goldberg, H.; Brown, M.

    2017-05-01

    Publicly available benchmark data and metric evaluation approaches have been instrumental in enabling research to advance state of the art methods for remote sensing applications in urban 3D modeling. Most publicly available benchmark datasets have consisted of high resolution airborne imagery and lidar suitable for 3D modeling on a relatively modest scale. To enable research in larger scale 3D mapping, we have recently released a public benchmark dataset with multi-view commercial satellite imagery and metrics to compare 3D point clouds with lidar ground truth. We now define a more complete metric evaluation pipeline developed as publicly available open source software to assess semantically labeled 3D models of complex urban scenes derived from multi-view commercial satellite imagery. Evaluation metrics in our pipeline include horizontal and vertical accuracy and completeness, volumetric completeness and correctness, perceptual quality, and model simplicity. Sources of ground truth include airborne lidar and overhead imagery, and we demonstrate a semi-automated process for producing accurate ground truth shape files to characterize building footprints. We validate our current metric evaluation pipeline using 3D models produced using open source multi-view stereo methods. Data and software is made publicly available to enable further research and planned benchmarking activities.

  12. New performance evaluation models for character detection in images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, YanWei; Ding, XiaoQing; Liu, ChangSong; Wang, Kongqiao

    2010-02-01

    Detection of characters regions is a meaningful research work for both highlighting region of interest and recognition for further information processing. A lot of researches have been performed on character localization and extraction and this leads to the great needs of performance evaluation scheme to inspect detection algorithms. In this paper, two probability models are established to accomplish evaluation tasks for different applications respectively. For highlighting region of interest, a Gaussian probability model, which simulates the property of a low-pass Gaussian filter of human vision system (HVS), was constructed to allocate different weights to different character parts. It reveals the greatest potential to describe the performance of detectors, especially, when the result detected is an incomplete character, where other methods cannot effectively work. For the recognition destination, we also introduced a weighted probability model to give an appropriate description for the contribution of detection results to final recognition results. The validity of performance evaluation models proposed in this paper are proved by experiments on web images and natural scene images. These models proposed in this paper may also be able to be applied in evaluating algorithms of locating other objects, like face detection and more wide experiments need to be done to examine the assumption.

  13. Forecasting in foodservice: model development, testing, and evaluation.

    PubMed

    Miller, J L; Thompson, P A; Orabella, M M

    1991-05-01

    This study was designed to develop, test, and evaluate mathematical models appropriate for forecasting menu-item production demand in foodservice. Data were collected from residence and dining hall foodservices at Ohio State University. Objectives of the study were to collect, code, and analyze the data; develop and test models using actual operation data; and compare forecasting results with current methods in use. Customer count was forecast using deseasonalized simple exponential smoothing. Menu-item demand was forecast by multiplying the count forecast by a predicted preference statistic. Forecasting models were evaluated using mean squared error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error techniques. All models were more accurate than current methods. A broad spectrum of forecasting techniques could be used by foodservice managers with access to a personal computer and spread-sheet and database-management software. The findings indicate that mathematical forecasting techniques may be effective in foodservice operations to control costs, increase productivity, and maximize profits.

  14. Software Platform Evaluation - Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) Model

    SciTech Connect

    J. J. Jacobson; D. E. Shropshire; W. B. West

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this Software Platform Evaluation (SPE) is to document the top-level evaluation of potential software platforms on which to construct a simulation model that satisfies the requirements for a Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation Model (VISION) of the Advanced Fuel Cycle (AFC). See the Software Requirements Specification for Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) Model (INEEL/EXT-05-02643, Rev. 0) for a discussion of the objective and scope of the VISION model. VISION is intended to serve as a broad systems analysis and study tool applicable to work conducted as part of the AFCI (including costs estimates) and Generation IV reactor development studies. This document will serve as a guide for selecting the most appropriate software platform for VISION. This is a “living document” that will be modified over the course of the execution of this work.

  15. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well.

  16. Moving beyond qualitative evaluations of Bayesian models of cognition.

    PubMed

    Hemmer, Pernille; Tauber, Sean; Steyvers, Mark

    2015-06-01

    Bayesian models of cognition provide a powerful way to understand the behavior and goals of individuals from a computational point of view. Much of the focus in the Bayesian cognitive modeling approach has been on qualitative model evaluations, where predictions from the models are compared to data that is often averaged over individuals. In many cognitive tasks, however, there are pervasive individual differences. We introduce an approach to directly infer individual differences related to subjective mental representations within the framework of Bayesian models of cognition. In this approach, Bayesian data analysis methods are used to estimate cognitive parameters and motivate the inference process within a Bayesian cognitive model. We illustrate this integrative Bayesian approach on a model of memory. We apply the model to behavioral data from a memory experiment involving the recall of heights of people. A cross-validation analysis shows that the Bayesian memory model with inferred subjective priors predicts withheld data better than a Bayesian model where the priors are based on environmental statistics. In addition, the model with inferred priors at the individual subject level led to the best overall generalization performance, suggesting that individual differences are important to consider in Bayesian models of cognition.

  17. A research and evaluation capacity building model in Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Lobo, Roanna; Crawford, Gemma; Hallett, Jonathan; Laing, Sue; Mak, Donna B; Jancey, Jonine; Rowell, Sally; McCausland, Kahlia; Bastian, Lisa; Sorenson, Anne; Tilley, P J Matt; Yam, Simon; Comfort, Jude; Brennan, Sean; Doherty, Maryanne

    2016-12-27

    Evaluation of public health programs, services and policies is increasingly required to demonstrate effectiveness. Funding constraints necessitate that existing programs, services and policies be evaluated and their findings disseminated. Evidence-informed practice and policy is also desirable to maximise investments in public health. Partnerships between public health researchers, service providers and policymakers can help address evaluation knowledge and skills gaps. The Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network (SiREN) aims to build research and evaluation capacity in the sexual health and blood-borne virus sector in Western Australia (WA). Partners' perspectives of the SiREN model after 2 years were explored. Qualitative written responses from service providers, policymakers and researchers about the SiREN model were analysed thematically. Service providers reported that participation in SiREN prompted them to consider evaluation earlier in the planning process and increased their appreciation of the value of evaluation. Policymakers noted benefits of the model in generating local evidence and highlighting local issues of importance for consideration at a national level. Researchers identified challenges communicating the services available through SiREN and the time investment needed to develop effective collaborative partnerships. Stronger engagement between public health researchers, service providers and policymakers through collaborative partnerships has the potential to improve evidence generation and evidence translation. These outcomes require long-term funding and commitment from all partners to develop and maintain partnerships. Ongoing monitoring and evaluation can ensure the partnership remains responsive to the needs of key stakeholders. The findings are applicable to many sectors.

  18. Evaluation of thermographic phosphor technology for aerodynamic model testing

    SciTech Connect

    Cates, M.R.; Tobin, K.W.; Smith, D.B.

    1990-08-01

    The goal for this project was to perform technology evaluations applicable to the development of higher-precision, higher-temperature aerodynamic model testing at Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) in Tullahmoa, Tennessee. With the advent of new programs for design of aerospace craft that fly at higher speeds and altitudes, requirements for detailed understanding of high-temperature materials become very important. Model testing is a natural and critical part of the development of these new initiatives. The well-established thermographic phosphor techniques of the Applied Technology Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are highly desirable for diagnostic evaluation of materials and aerodynamic shapes as studied in model tests. Combining this state-of-the-art thermographic technique with modern, higher-temperature models will greatly improve the practicability of tests for the advanced aerospace vehicles and will provide higher precision diagnostic information for quantitative evaluation of these tests. The wavelength ratio method for measuring surface temperatures of aerodynamic models was demonstrated in measurements made for this project. In particular, it was shown that the appropriate phosphors could be selected for the temperature range up to {approximately}700 {degree}F or higher and emission line ratios of sufficient sensitivity to measure temperature with 1% precision or better. Further, it was demonstrated that two-dimensional image- processing methods, using standard hardware, can be successfully applied to surface thermography of aerodynamic models for AEDC applications.

  19. Use of field experimental studies to evaluate emergency response models

    SciTech Connect

    Gudiksen, P.H.; Lange, R.; Rodriguez, D.J.; Nasstrom, J.S.

    1985-07-16

    The three-dimensional diagnostic wind field model (MATHEW) and the particle-in-cell atmospheric transport and diffusion model (ADPIC) are used by the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability to estimate the environmental consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity into the atmosphere. These models have undergone extensive evaluations against field experiments conducted in a variety of environmental settings ranging from relatively flat to very complex terrain areas. Simulations of tracer experiments conducted in a complex mountain valley setting revealed that 35 to 50% of the comparisons between calculated and measured tracer concentrations were within a factor of 5. This may be compared with a factor of 2 for 50% of the comparisons for relatively flat terrain. This degradation of results in complex terrain is due to a variety of factors such as the limited representativeness of measurements in complex terrain, the limited spatial resolution afforded by the models, and the turbulence parameterization based on sigma/sub theta/ measurements to evaluate the eddy diffusivities. Measurements of sigma/sub theta/ in complex terrain exceed those measured over flat terrain by a factor of 2 to 3 leading to eddy diffusivities that are unrealistically high. The results of model evaluations are very sensitive to the quality and the representativeness of the meteorological data. This is particularly true for measurements near the source. The capability of the models to simulate the dispersion of an instantaneously produced cloud of particulates was illustrated to be generally within a factor of 2 over flat terrain. 19 refs., 16 figs.

  20. Evaluation of Rainfall-Runoff Models for Mediterranean Subcatchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cilek, A.; Berberoglu, S.; Donmez, C.

    2016-06-01

    The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA), a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  1. Summary of MATHEW/ADPIC model evaluation studies

    SciTech Connect

    Dickerson, M.H.

    1985-10-01

    This report summarizes model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC transport and diffusion models during the past ten years. These models support the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability, an emergency response service for atmospheric releases of nuclear material. Field campaigns involving tracer releases used in these studies cover a broad range of meteorology, terrain and tracer release heights, the three most important aspects of estimating air concentration values resulting from airborne releases of toxic material. Results of these studies show that these models can estimate air concentration values within a factor of 2, 20% to 50% of the time and a factor of 5, 40% to 80% of the time. As the meteorology and terrain become more complex and the release height of the tracer is increased the accuracy of the model calculations degrades. This band of uncertainty appears to correctly represent the capability of these models at this time. 13 refs., 8 figs.

  2. Animal models to evaluate anti-atherosclerotic drugs.

    PubMed

    Priyadharsini, Raman P

    2015-08-01

    Atherosclerosis is a multifactorial condition characterized by endothelial injury, fatty streak deposition, and stiffening of the blood vessels. The pathogenesis is complex and mediated by adhesion molecules, inflammatory cells, and smooth muscle cells. Statins have been the major drugs in treating hypercholesterolemia for the past two decades despite little efficacy. There is an urgent need for new drugs that can replace statins or combined with statins. The preclinical studies evaluating atherosclerosis require an ideal animal model which resembles the disease condition, but there is no single animal model which mimics the disease. The animal models used are rabbits, rats, mice, hamsters, mini pigs, etc. Each animal model has its own advantages and disadvantages. The method of induction of atherosclerosis includes diet, chemical induction, mechanically induced injuries, and genetically manipulated animal models. This review mainly focuses on the various animal models, method of induction, the advantages, disadvantages, and the current perspectives with regard to preclinical studies on atherosclerosis.

  3. The Iterative Research Cycle: Process-Based Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrugt, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    The ever increasing pace of computational power, along with continued advances in measurement technologies and improvements in process understanding has stimulated the development of increasingly complex physics based models that simulate a myriad of processes at different spatial and temporal scales. Reconciling these high-order system models with perpetually larger volumes of field data is becoming more and more difficult, particularly because classical likelihood-based fitting methods lack the power to detect and pinpoint deficiencies in the model structure. In this talk I will give an overview of our latest research on process-based model calibration and evaluation. This approach, rooted in Bayesian theory, uses summary metrics of the calibration data rather than the data itself to help detect which component(s) of the model is (are) malfunctioning and in need of improvement. A few case studies involving hydrologic and geophysical models will be used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

  4. New experimental model for the evaluation of adaptogenic products.

    PubMed

    Ramachandran, U; Divekar, H M; Grover, S K; Srivastava, K K

    1990-07-01

    A new animal model for evaluating improvement in physical work performance and endurance in an adverse environment is described. In this model, rats in restraint were exposed to 5 degrees C at 480 mmHg atmospheric pressure. Results were compared to an animal forced to swim in water at 23 degrees C. In both the models, colonic temperature (Tr) of the rats was continually monitored during exposure to adverse environment and during recovery at 32 degrees C and normal atmospheric pressure. The time and pattern for Tr fall to 23 degrees C and its recovery to 37 degrees C were used as measures of endurance. The cold-hypoxia-restraint model was found to provide more precise results compared with the cold-swimming model. Panax ginseng root and Ginkgo biloba leaf extracts were compared for their positive endurance-promoting properties using both models.

  5. [Establishment and evaluation of animal model with methamphetamine poisoning].

    PubMed

    Xu, Jing; Zhou, Xiao-Li; Zhang, Hao; Deng, Chong; Zhang, Yan; Li, Zhen

    2009-08-01

    Amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) is the most widespread narcotics in the 21st century. The methamphetamine's intoxication mechanism, psychological dependence, drug resistance and therapeutic drug development are the hot spots in current research. Establishment of animal model with methamphetamine poisoning is the basic for the relative studies, the normalization and standardization of the animal model settles the foundation for methamphetamine's further research. This article reviews the animal model of methamphetamine poisoning in China and abroad, the brief history of the acute, subacute and chronic animal model of methamphetamine poisoning, as well as the principles and methods of the animal model establishment and its evaluation criteria. The necessity, significance and its scientific expansion of performing experimental research on the methamphetamine poisoning animal model are also discussed.

  6. Design and evaluation of a parametric model for cardiac sounds.

    PubMed

    Ibarra-Hernández, Roilhi F; Alonso-Arévalo, Miguel A; Cruz-Gutiérrez, Alejandro; Licona-Chávez, Ana L; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador

    2017-08-09

    Heart sound analysis plays an important role in the auscultative diagnosis process to detect the presence of cardiovascular diseases. In this paper we propose a novel parametric heart sound model that accurately represents normal and pathological cardiac audio signals, also known as phonocardiograms (PCG). The proposed model considers that the PCG signal is formed by the sum of two parts: one of them is deterministic and the other one is stochastic. The first part contains most of the acoustic energy. This part is modeled by the Matching Pursuit (MP) algorithm, which performs an analysis-synthesis procedure to represent the PCG signal as a linear combination of elementary waveforms. The second part, also called residual, is obtained after subtracting the deterministic signal from the original heart sound recording and can be accurately represented as an autoregressive process using the Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) technique. We evaluate the proposed heart sound model by performing subjective and objective tests using signals corresponding to different pathological cardiac sounds. The results of the objective evaluation show an average Percentage of Root-Mean-Square Difference of approximately 5% between the original heart sound and the reconstructed signal. For the subjective test we conducted a formal methodology for perceptual evaluation of audio quality with the assistance of medical experts. Statistical results of the subjective evaluation show that our model provides a highly accurate approximation of real heart sound signals. We are not aware of any previous heart sound model rigorously evaluated as our proposal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluation of modelled methane emissions over northern peatland sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yao; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah; Raivonen, Maarit; Susiluoto, Jouni; Vesala, Timo; Aurela, Mika; Lohila, Annalea; Aalto, Tuula

    2017-04-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, with approximately 34 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a century time horizon (IPCC, 2013). The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. Evaluation of the ability of the process-based land surface models of earth system models (ESMs) in simulating CH4 emission over peatland is needed for more precise future predictions. In this study, two peatland sites of poor and rich soil nutrient conditions, in southern and northern Finland respectively, are adopted. The measured CH4 fluxes at the two sites are used to evaluate the CH4 emissions simulated by the land surface model (JULES) of the UK Earth System model and by the Helsinki peatland methane emission model (HIMMELI), which is developed at Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helsinki University. In JULES, CH4 flux is simply related to soil temperature, wetland fraction and effective substrate availability. However, HIMMELI has detailed descriptions of microbial and transport processes for simulating CH4 flux. The seasonal dynamics of CH4 fluxes at the two sites are relatively well captured by both models, but model biases exist. Simulated CH4 flux is sensitive to water table depth (WTD) at both models. However, the simulated WTD is limited to be below ground in JULES. It is also important to have the annual cycle of LAI correct when coupling JULES with HIMMELI.

  8. Evaluation of articulation simulation system using artificial maxillectomy models.

    PubMed

    Elbashti, M E; Hattori, M; Sumita, Y I; Taniguchi, H

    2015-09-01

    Acoustic evaluation is valuable for guiding the treatment of maxillofacial defects and determining the effectiveness of rehabilitation with an obturator prosthesis. Model simulations are important in terms of pre-surgical planning and pre- and post-operative speech function. This study aimed to evaluate the acoustic characteristics of voice generated by an articulation simulation system using a vocal tract model with or without artificial maxillectomy defects. More specifically, we aimed to establish a speech simulation system for maxillectomy defect models that both surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists can use in guiding treatment planning. Artificially simulated maxillectomy defects were prepared according to Aramany's classification (Classes I-VI) in a three-dimensional vocal tract plaster model of a subject uttering the vowel /a/. Formant and nasalance acoustic data were analysed using Computerized Speech Lab and the Nasometer, respectively. Formants and nasalance of simulated /a/ sounds were successfully detected and analysed. Values of Formants 1 and 2 for the non-defect model were 675.43 and 976.64 Hz, respectively. Median values of Formants 1 and 2 for the defect models were 634.36 and 1026.84 Hz, respectively. Nasalance was 11% in the non-defect model, whereas median nasalance was 28% in the defect models. The results suggest that an articulation simulation system can be used to help surgeons and maxillofacial prosthodontists to plan post-surgical defects that will be facilitate maxillofacial rehabilitation.

  9. Comparative analysis of used car price evaluation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chuancan; Hao, Lulu; Xu, Cong

    2017-05-01

    An accurate used car price evaluation is a catalyst for the healthy development of used car market. Data mining has been applied to predict used car price in several articles. However, little is studied on the comparison of using different algorithms in used car price estimation. This paper collects more than 100,000 used car dealing records throughout China to do empirical analysis on a thorough comparison of two algorithms: linear regression and random forest. These two algorithms are used to predict used car price in three different models: model for a certain car make, model for a certain car series and universal model. Results show that random forest has a stable but not ideal effect in price evaluation model for a certain car make, but it shows great advantage in the universal model compared with linear regression. This indicates that random forest is an optimal algorithm when handling complex models with a large number of variables and samples, yet it shows no obvious advantage when coping with simple models with less variables.

  10. Evaluation of a Neuromechanical Walking Control Model Using Disturbance Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Song, Seungmoon; Geyer, Hartmut

    2017-01-01

    Neuromechanical simulations have been used to study the spinal control of human locomotion which involves complex mechanical dynamics. So far, most neuromechanical simulation studies have focused on demonstrating the capability of a proposed control model in generating normal walking. As many of these models with competing control hypotheses can generate human-like normal walking behaviors, a more in-depth evaluation is required. Here, we conduct the more in-depth evaluation on a spinal-reflex-based control model using five representative gait disturbances, ranging from electrical stimulation to mechanical perturbation at individual leg joints and at the whole body. The immediate changes in muscle activations of the model are compared to those of humans across different gait phases and disturbance magnitudes. Remarkably similar response trends for the majority of investigated muscles and experimental conditions reinforce the plausibility of the reflex circuits of the model. However, the model's responses lack in amplitude for two experiments with whole body disturbances suggesting that in these cases the proposed reflex circuits need to be amplified by additional control structures such as location-specific cutaneous reflexes. A model that captures these selective amplifications would be able to explain both steady and reactive spinal control of human locomotion. Neuromechanical simulations that investigate hypothesized control models are complementary to gait experiments in better understanding the control of human locomotion. PMID:28381996

  11. Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, S. C.; Bustamante, J. F.; Gomes, J. L.

    2005-06-01

    Seasonal forecasts run by the Eta Model over South America were evaluated with respect to precipitation predictability at different time scales, seasonal, monthly and weekly for one-year period runs. The model domain was configured over most of South America in 40km horizontal resolution and 38 layers. The lateral boundary conditions were taken from CPTEC GCM forecasts at T62L28. The sea surface temperature was updated daily with persisted anomaly during the integrations. The total time integration length was 4.5 months. The Eta seasonal forecasts represented reasonably well the large scale precipitation systems over South America such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The total amounts were comparable to observations. The season total precipitation forecasts from the driver model exhibited large overestimate. In general, the largest precipitation errors were found in ASON season and the smallest in FMAM. The major error areas were located along the northern and northeastern coast and over the Andes. These areas were present in both models. The monthly precipitation totals indicated that the intra-seasonal variability, such as the monsoonal onset, was reasonably captured by the model. The equitable threat score and the bias score showed that the Eta Model forecasts had higher precipitation predictability over the Amazon Region and lower over Northeast Brazil. The evaluation of the precipitation forecast range showed that at the fourth month the forecast skill was still comparable to the first month of integration. Comparisons with the CPTEC GCM forecasts showed that the Eta improved considerably the forecasts from the driver model. Five-member ensemble runs were produced for the NDJF rainy season. Both driver model and Eta Model forecasts showed some internal variability in the SACZ and over the Andes regions. Comparison of the Eta Model seasonal forecasts against climatology showed that in general the model produced

  12. Information technology model for evaluating emergency medicine teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vorbach, James; Ryan, James

    1996-02-01

    This paper describes work in progress to develop an Information Technology (IT) model and supporting information system for the evaluation of clinical teaching in the Emergency Medicine (EM) Department of North Shore University Hospital. In the academic hospital setting student physicians, i.e. residents, and faculty function daily in their dual roles as teachers and students respectively, and as health care providers. Databases exist that are used to evaluate both groups in either academic or clinical performance, but rarely has this information been integrated to analyze the relationship between academic performance and the ability to care for patients. The goal of the IT model is to improve the quality of teaching of EM physicians by enabling the development of integrable metrics for faculty and resident evaluation. The IT model will include (1) methods for tracking residents in order to develop experimental databases; (2) methods to integrate lecture evaluation, clinical performance, resident evaluation, and quality assurance databases; and (3) a patient flow system to monitor patient rooms and the waiting area in the Emergency Medicine Department, to record and display status of medical orders, and to collect data for analyses.

  13. Technology evaluation, assessment, modeling, and simulation: the TEAMS capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, Orgal T.; Stiegler, Robert L.

    1998-08-01

    The United States Marine Corps' Technology Evaluation, Assessment, Modeling and Simulation (TEAMS) capability, located at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren Virginia, provides an environment for detailed test, evaluation, and assessment of live and simulated sensor and sensor-to-shooter systems for the joint warfare community. Frequent use of modeling and simulation allows for cost effective testing, bench-marking, and evaluation of various levels of sensors and sensor-to-shooter engagements. Interconnectivity to live, instrumented equipment operating in real battle space environments and to remote modeling and simulation facilities participating in advanced distributed simulations (ADS) exercises is available to support a wide- range of situational assessment requirements. TEAMS provides a valuable resource for a variety of users. Engineers, analysts, and other technology developers can use TEAMS to evaluate, assess and analyze tactical relevant phenomenological data on tactical situations. Expeditionary warfare and USMC concept developers can use the facility to support and execute advanced warfighting experiments (AWE) to better assess operational maneuver from the sea (OMFTS) concepts, doctrines, and technology developments. Developers can use the facility to support sensor system hardware, software and algorithm development as well as combat development, acquisition, and engineering processes. Test and evaluation specialists can use the facility to plan, assess, and augment their processes. This paper presents an overview of the TEAMS capability and focuses specifically on the technical challenges associated with the integration of live sensor hardware into a synthetic environment and how those challenges are being met. Existing sensors, recent experiments and facility specifications are featured.

  14. Evaluating models of community psychology: social transformation in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Steve

    2002-01-01

    Tricket (1996) described community psychology in terms of contexts of diversity within a diversity of contexts. As abstract representations of reality, various community psychological models provide further diverse contexts through which to view the diversity of community psychological reality. The Zululand Community Psychology Project is a South African initiative aimed at improving community life. This includes treating the violent sequelae of the unjust Apartheid system through improving relationships among communities divided in terms of historical, colonial, racial, ethnic, political, gender, and other boundaries as well as promoting health and social change. The aim of this article is to evaluate the applicability of various models of community psychology used in this project. The initial quantitative investigation in the Zululand Community Psychology Project involved five coresearchers, who evaluated five community psychology models--the mental health, social action, organizational, ecological, and phenomenological models--in terms of their differential applicability in three partnership centers, representing health, education, and business sectors of the local community. In all three contexts, the models were rank ordered by a representative of each center, an intern community psychologist, and his supervisor in terms of the models' respective applicability to the particular partnership center concerned. Results indicated significant agreement with regard to the differential applicability of the mental health, phenomenological, and organizational models in the health, education, and business centers respectively, with the social action model being most generally applicable across all centers. This led to a further qualitative individual and focus group investigation with eight university coresearchers into the experience of social transformation with special reference to social changes needed in the South African context. These social transformation

  15. The Applicability of Selected Evaluation Models to Evolving Investigative Designs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Nick L.; Hauer, Diane M.

    1990-01-01

    Ten evaluation models are examined in terms of their applicability to investigative, emergent design programs: Stake's portrayal, Wolf's adversary, Patton's utilization, Guba's investigative journalism, Scriven's goal-free, Scriven's modus operandi, Eisner's connoisseurial, Stufflebeam's CIPP, Tyler's objective based, and Levin's cost…

  16. Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

  17. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  18. Evaluation of Infrared Images by Using a Human Thermal Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-10-25

    thermal environmental history have been recorded. In this case, the thermal environmental history could be estimated from the behavior of a subject... environmental history and physiological condition history. An advantage of the evaluation of IR images using the thermal model is to provide

  19. Evaluation of a stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; McCaa, J.

    1996-04-01

    To evaluate the relative importance of horizontal advection of cloud versus cloud formation within the grid cell of a single column model (SCM), we have performed a series of simulations with our SCM driven by a fixed vertical velocity and various rates of horizontal advection.

  20. The Application of a Residential Treatment Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Ronald H.; And Others

    This study applied a model for the evaluation of a children's residential treatment center. The conclusions are based on data collected for 22 children at four key points: a community baseline relating to families and prior agency contacts, a residential baseline dealing with the child's reported behavior during the first six weeks at the center,…

  1. Evaluation of active appearance models in varying background conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kowalski, Marek; Naruniec, Jacek

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we present an evaluation of the chosen versions of Active Appearance Models (AAM) in varying background conditions. Algorithms were tested on a subset of the CMU PIE database and chosen background im- ages. Our experiments prove, that the accuracy of those methods is strictly correlated with the used background, where the differences in the success rate differ even up to 50%.

  2. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  3. Input, Process, Output: A Model for Evaluating Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bushnell, David S.

    1990-01-01

    IBM has found that an input-process-output (IPO) approach to training evaluation enables decision makers to select the package that will ensure the effectiveness of a training program. Those who use the IPO model can determine whether programs are achieving their purposes and can detect the changes needed to improve course design, content, and…

  4. The Application of a Residential Treatment Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Ronald H.; And Others

    This study applied a model for the evaluation of a children's residential treatment center. The conclusions are based on data collected for 22 children at four key points: a community baseline relating to families and prior agency contacts, a residential baseline dealing with the child's reported behavior during the first six weeks at the center,…

  5. REVIEW OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR EVALUATING SOIL VAPOR EXTRACTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Soil vapor extraction (SVE) is a commonly used remedial technology at sites contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOC5) such as chlorinated solvents and hydrocarbon fuels. Modeling tools are available to help evaluate the feasibility, design, and performance of SVE system...

  6. Field Evaluation of an Avian Risk Assessment Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic risk assessment model for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...

  7. Further Evaluation of a Brief, Intensive Teacher-Training Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lerman, Dorothea C.; Tetreault, Allison; Hovanetz, Alyson; Strobel, Margaret; Garro, Joanie

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to further evaluate the outcomes of a model program that was designed to train current teachers of children with autism. Nine certified special education teachers participating in an intensive 5-day summer training program were taught a relatively large number of specific skills in two areas (preference assessment and…

  8. A Model for the Evaluation of Programs in Juvenile Justice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Empey, LaMar T.

    The author discusses the tendency of reformers of juvenile justice to equate change with effectiveness, and warns against repeating this error. He believes that collaboration between program and research personnel is essential in these programs. A juvenile justice model which integrates research and evaluation, clarifying the functions of each and…

  9. Evaluation of an Interdisciplinary, Physically Active Lifestyle Course Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fede, Marybeth H.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate a fit for life program at a university and to use the findings from an extensive literature review, consultations with formative and summative committees, and data collection to develop an interdisciplinary, physically active lifestyle (IPAL) course model. To address the 5 research questions examined in…

  10. Support for Career Development in Youth: Program Models and Evaluations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mekinda, Megan A.

    2012-01-01

    This article examines four influential programs--Citizen Schools, After School Matters, career academies, and Job Corps--to demonstrate the diversity of approaches to career programming for youth. It compares the specific program models and draws from the evaluation literature to discuss strengths and weaknesses of each. The article highlights…

  11. Evaluating an Information System for Policy Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henrion, Max; And Others

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this evaluation of DEMOS, a system for decision modeling and uncertainty analysis, was to identify some generic issues of interest in the design of such information systems, obtain insights about the causes of problems in their use, and to suggest hypotheses about how to deal with them. (EM)

  12. Using a Project Portfolio: Empowerment Evaluation for Model Demonstration Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baggett, David

    For model postsecondary demonstration projects serving individuals with disabilities, a portfolio of project activities may serve as a method for program evaluation, program replication, and program planning. Using a portfolio for collecting, describing, and documenting a project's successes, efforts, and failures enables project staff to take…

  13. Using the Subjective Probability Model to Evaluate Academic Debate Arguments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allen, Mike; Kellermann, Kathy

    1988-01-01

    Explores the worth of high impact/low probability arguments as "real world" policy arguments. Evaluates four National Debate Tournament (NDT) final round disadvantages by students using the subjective probability model. Finds that although NDT disadvantages were perceived to be a technically sound form of argumentation, they were not…

  14. Assessment and Evaluation Modeling. Symposium 38. [AHRD Conference, 2001].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2001

    This symposium on assessment and evaluation modeling consists of three presentations. "Training Assessment Among Kenyan Smallholder Entrepreneurs" (George G. Shibanda, Jemymah Ingado, Bernard Nassiuma) reports a study that assessed the extent to which the need for knowledge, information, and skills among small scale farmers can promote…

  15. Air Pollution Data for Model Evaluation and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    One objective of designing an air pollution monitoring network is to obtain data for evaluating air quality models that are used in the air quality management process and scientific discovery.1.2 A common use is to relate emissions to air quality, including assessing ...

  16. Evaluation of a metabolic cotton seedling emergence model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A model for cotton seedling emergence (MaGi) based on malate synthase kinetics was evaluated in the field at two locations, Lubbock and Big Spring, TX. Cotton, cvar. DP 444, was planted through the early spring and into typical planting times for the areas. Soil temperatures at seed depth was used a...

  17. An IPA-Embedded Model for Evaluating Creativity Curricula

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Chi-Cheng

    2014-01-01

    How to diagnose the effectiveness of creativity-related curricula is a crucial concern in the pursuit of educational excellence. This paper introduces an importance-performance analysis (IPA)-embedded model for curriculum evaluation, using the example of an IT project implementation course to assess the creativity performance deduced from student…

  18. Evaluating Item Fit for Multidimensional Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Bo; Stone, Clement A.

    2008-01-01

    This research examines the utility of the s-x[superscript 2] statistic proposed by Orlando and Thissen (2000) in evaluating item fit for multidimensional item response models. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to investigate both the Type I error and statistical power of this fit statistic in analyzing two kinds of multidimensional test…

  19. Air Pollution Data for Model Evaluation and Application

    EPA Science Inventory

    One objective of designing an air pollution monitoring network is to obtain data for evaluating air quality models that are used in the air quality management process and scientific discovery.1.2 A common use is to relate emissions to air quality, including assessing ...

  20. The Quality, Implementation, and Evaluation Model: A Clinical Practice Model for Sustainable Interventions.

    PubMed

    Talsma, AkkeNeel; McLaughlin, Margaret; Bathish, Melissa; Sirihorachai, Rattima; Kuttner, Rafael

    2014-08-01

    Major efforts have been directed toward the implementation of sustainable quality improvement. To date, progress has been noted using various metrics and performance measures; however, successful implementation has proven challenging. The Quality, Implementation, and Evaluation (QIE) model, derived from Donabedian's structure component, presents a framework for implementation of specific activities. The QIE model consists of Policy, Patient Preparedness, Provider Competency, and Performance and Accountability, to guide specific practice initiatives. The implementation of alcohol-based pre-operative skin prep was evaluated in a sample of 17 hospitals and demonstrated that hospitals actively engaged in the components of the model demonstrated a significantly higher use of alcohol-based skin preparation agent than hospitals that did not engage in QIE model activities. The QIE model presents a powerful and actionable implementation model for mid-level management and clinical leadership. Future studies will further evaluate the impact of the specific components of the QIE model.

  1. A model for compression after impact strength evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ilcewicz, Larry B.; Dost, Ernst F.; Coggeshall, Randy L.

    1989-01-01

    One key property commonly used for evaluating composite material performance is compression after impact strength (CAI). Standarad CAI tests typically use a specific laminate stacking sequence, coupon geometry, and impact level. In order to understand what material factors affect CAI, evaluation of test results should include more than comparisons of the measured strength for different materials. This study considers the effects of characteristic impact damage state, specimen geometry, material toughness, ply group thickness, undamaged strength, and failure mode. The results of parametric studies, using an analysis model developed to predict CAI, are discussed. Experimental results used to verify the model are also presented. Finally, recommended pre- and post-test CAI evaluation schemes which help link material behavior to structural performance are summarized.

  2. A model for compression after impact strength evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ilcewicz, Larry B.; Dost, Ernst F.; Coggeshall, Randy L.

    1989-01-01

    One key property commonly used for evaluating composite material performance is compression after impact strength (CAI). Standarad CAI tests typically use a specific laminate stacking sequence, coupon geometry, and impact level. In order to understand what material factors affect CAI, evaluation of test results should include more than comparisons of the measured strength for different materials. This study considers the effects of characteristic impact damage state, specimen geometry, material toughness, ply group thickness, undamaged strength, and failure mode. The results of parametric studies, using an analysis model developed to predict CAI, are discussed. Experimental results used to verify the model are also presented. Finally, recommended pre- and post-test CAI evaluation schemes which help link material behavior to structural performance are summarized.

  3. The Evaluation of Community College Teaching: Models in Theory and Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Junior Coll. Association, Sacramento.

    This report presents the proceedings of the Conference on Models for the Evaluation of Teaching. The papers included are: (1) Teachers and Their Evaluation; (2) A Performance-Centered Model for the Evaluation of Teaching; (3) A Learner-Centered Model; (4) Evaluation as a Change Mechanism--A Management Model; (5) Faculty Roles in Evaluation; (6)…

  4. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  5. Recursive Model Identification for the Evaluation of Baroreflex Sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Le Rolle, Virginie; Beuchée, Alain; Praud, Jean-Paul; Samson, Nathalie; Pladys, Patrick; Hernández, Alfredo I

    2016-12-01

    A method for the recursive identification of physiological models of the cardiovascular baroreflex is proposed and applied to the time-varying analysis of vagal and sympathetic activities. The proposed method was evaluated with data from five newborn lambs, which were acquired during injection of vasodilator and vasoconstrictors and the results show a close match between experimental and simulated signals. The model-based estimation of vagal and sympathetic contributions were consistent with physiological knowledge and the obtained estimators of vagal and sympathetic activities were compared to traditional markers associated with baroreflex sensitivity. High correlations were observed between traditional markers and model-based indices.

  6. Evaluation of battery models for prediction of electric vehicle range

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, H. A.; Phillips, A. M.

    1977-01-01

    Three analytical models for predicting electric vehicle battery output and the corresponding electric vehicle range for various driving cycles were evaluated. The models were used to predict output and range, and then compared with experimentally determined values determined by laboratory tests on batteries using discharge cycles identical to those encountered by an actual electric vehicle while on SAE cycles. Results indicate that the modified Hoxie model gave the best predictions with an accuracy of about 97 to 98% in the best cases and 86% in the worst case. A computer program was written to perform the lengthy iterative calculations required. The program and hardware used to automatically discharge the battery are described.

  7. Evaluating Model Fit for Growth Curve Models: Integration of Fit Indices from SEM and MLM Frameworks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.; Taylor, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Evaluating overall model fit for growth curve models involves 3 challenging issues. (a) Three types of longitudinal data with different implications for model fit may be distinguished: balanced on time with complete data, balanced on time with data missing at random, and unbalanced on time. (b) Traditional work on fit from the structural equation…

  8. A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, D. I.; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.; Wang, H.; Simard, M.; Fisher, J. B.; Willis, K. O.

    2013-05-01

    We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

  9. A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, D. I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Harrison, S. P.; Wang, H.; Simard, M.; Fisher, J. B.; Willis, K. O.

    2012-11-01

    We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

  10. An evaluation of selected in silico models for the assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Skin sensitization remains an important endpoint for consumers, manufacturers and regulators. Although the development of alternative approaches to assess skin sensitization potential has been extremely active over many years, the implication of regulations such as REACH and the Cosmetics Directive in EU has provided a much stronger impetus to actualize this research into practical tools for decision making. Thus there has been considerable focus on the development, evaluation, and integration of alternative approaches for skin sensitization hazard and risk assessment. This includes in silico approaches such as (Q)SARs and expert systems. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a selection of in silico models and then to explore whether combining those models led to an improvement in accuracy. A dataset of 473 substances that had been tested in the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was compiled. This comprised 295 sensitizers and 178 non-sensitizers. Four freely available models were identified - 2 statistical models VEGA and MultiCASE model A33 for skin sensitization (MCASE A33) from the Danish National Food Institute and two mechanistic models Toxtree’s Skin sensitization Reaction domains (Toxtree SS Rxn domains) and the OASIS v1.3 protein binding alerts for skin sensitization from the OECD Toolbox (OASIS). VEGA and MCASE A33 aim to predict sensitization as a binary score whereas the mechanistic models identified reaction domains or structura

  11. Toward diagnostic model calibration and evaluation: Approximate Bayesian computation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrugt, Jasper A.; Sadegh, Mojtaba

    2013-07-01

    The ever increasing pace of computational power, along with continued advances in measurement technologies and improvements in process understanding has stimulated the development of increasingly complex hydrologic models that simulate soil moisture flow, groundwater recharge, surface runoff, root water uptake, and river discharge at different spatial and temporal scales. Reconciling these high-order system models with perpetually larger volumes of field data is becoming more and more difficult, particularly because classical likelihood-based fitting methods lack the power to detect and pinpoint deficiencies in the model structure. Gupta et al. (2008) has recently proposed steps (amongst others) toward the development of a more robust and powerful method of model evaluation. Their diagnostic approach uses signature behaviors and patterns observed in the input-output data to illuminate to what degree a representation of the real world has been adequately achieved and how the model should be improved for the purpose of learning and scientific discovery. In this paper, we introduce approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) as a vehicle for diagnostic model evaluation. This statistical methodology relaxes the need for an explicit likelihood function in favor of one or multiple different summary statistics rooted in hydrologic theory that together have a clearer and more compelling diagnostic power than some average measure of the size of the error residuals. Two illustrative case studies are used to demonstrate that ABC is relatively easy to implement, and readily employs signature based indices to analyze and pinpoint which part of the model is malfunctioning and in need of further improvement.

  12. Evaluating a cognitive model of ALDH2 and drinking behavior

    PubMed Central

    Hendershot, Christian S.; Witkiewitz, Katie; George, William H.; Wall, Tamara L.; Otto, Jacqueline M.; Liang, Tiebing; Larimer, Mary E.

    2010-01-01

    Background Despite evidence for genetic influences on alcohol use and alcohol-related cognitions, genetic factors and endophenotypes are rarely incorporated in cognitive models of drinking behavior. This study evaluated a model of ALDH2 and drinking behavior stipulating cognitive factors and alcohol sensitivity as accounting for genetic influences on drinking outcomes. Methods Participants were Asian-American young adults (n = 171) who completed measures of alcohol cognitions (drinking motives, drinking refusal self-efficacy and alcohol expectancies), alcohol sensitivity, drinking behavior and alcohol-related problems as part a prospective study. Structural equation modeling (SEM) evaluated a model of drinking behavior that stipulated indirect effects of ALDH2 on drinking outcomes through cognitive variables and alcohol sensitivity. Results The full model provided an adequate fit to the observed data, with the measurement model explaining 63% of the variance in baseline heavy drinking and 50% of the variance in alcohol-related problems at follow-up. Associations of ALDH2 with cognitive factors and alcohol sensitivity were significant, whereas the association of ALDH2 with drinking was not significant with these factors included in the model. Mediation tests indicated significant indirect effects of ALDH2 through drinking motives, drinking refusal self-efficacy and alcohol sensitivity. Conclusions Results are consistent with the perspective that genetic influences on drinking behavior can be partly explained by learning mechanisms and implicate cognitive factors as important for characterizing associations of ALDH2 and drinking. PMID:21039630

  13. Evaluation of mycobacterial virulence using rabbit skin liquefaction model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Guoping; Shi, Wanliang; Wang, Mingzhu; Da, Zejiao

    2010-01-01

    Liquefaction is an important pathological process that can subsequently lead to cavitation where large numbers of bacilli can be coughed up which in turn causes spread of tuberculosis in humans. Current animal models to study the liquefaction process and to evaluate virulence of mycobacteria are tedious. In this study, we evaluated a rabbit skin model as a rapid model for liquefaction and virulence assessment using M. bovis BCG, M. tuberculosis avirulent strain H37Ra, M. smegmatis, and the H37Ra strains complemented with selected genes from virulent M. tuberculosis strain H37Rv. We found that with prime and/or boosting immunization, all of these live bacteria at enough high number could induce liquefaction, and the boosting induced stronger liquefaction and more severe lesions in shorter time compared with the prime injection. The skin lesions caused by high dose live BCG (5 × 106 CFU) were the most severe followed by live M. tuberculosis H37Ra with M. smegmatis being the least pathogenic. It is of interest to note that none of the above heat-killed mycobacteria induced liquefaction. When H37Ra was complemented with certain wild type genes of H37Rv, some of the complemented H37Ra strains produced more severe skin lesions than H37Ra. These results suggest that the rabbit skin liquefaction model can be a more visual, convenient, rapid and useful model to evaluate virulence of different mycobacteria and to study the mechanisms of liquefaction. PMID:21178434

  14. Evaluation of mycobacterial virulence using rabbit skin liquefaction model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guoping; Zhu, Bingdong; Shi, Wanliang; Wang, Mingzhu; Da, Zejiao; Zhang, Ying

    2010-01-01

    Liquefaction is an important pathological process that can subsequently lead to cavitation where large numbers of bacilli can be coughed up which in turn causes spread of tuberculosis in humans. Current animal models to study the liquefaction process and to evaluate virulence of mycobacteria are tedious. In this study, we evaluated a rabbit skin model as a rapid model for liquefaction and virulence assessment using M. bovis BCG, M. tuberculosis avirulent strain H37Ra, M. smegmatis, and the H37Ra strains complemented with selected genes from virulent M. tuberculosis strain H37Rv. We found that with prime and/or boosting immunization, all of these live bacteria at enough high number could induce liquefaction, and the boosting induced stronger liquefaction and more severe lesions in shorter time compared with the prime injection. The skin lesions caused by high dose live BCG (5×10 (6) ) were the most severe followed by live M. tuberculosis H37Ra with M. smegmatis being the least pathogenic. It is of interest to note that none of the above heat-killed mycobacteria induced liquefaction. When H37Ra was complemented with certain wild type genes of H37Rv, some of the complemented H37Ra strains produced more severe skin lesions than H37Ra. These results suggest that the rabbit skin liquefaction model can be a more visual, convenient, rapid and useful model to evaluate virulence of different mycobacteria and to study the mechanisms of liquefaction.

  15. Evaluation of the Medium Range Forecast from an Operational Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J.; Kim, Y.; Rha, D. K.; Son, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    The correct forecast on the medium range scale has been fascinated by both meteorologists and climatologists, because such time scale is located at the boundary between the weather and climate. The question raised in this paper is how we evaluate an operational model for the medium range forecast. The answer to this question is important to understand where error sources of a model come from. We use the Unified Model (UM) to evaluate its performance with the mean squared skill score (MSSS). Unlike the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) which only focuses on the spatial similarity of a model simulation to an observation, MSSS adds their conditional bias to the ACC. At the same time, it is able to explain the errors from both zonal mean and eddy fields. We analyze characteristics of various meteorological quantities globally and regionally. We compare the high resolution version (N768) with the low resolution version (N512). We explore the MSSS from the stratosphere to troposphere, and find that the MSSS exhibits the largest value in the lower stratosphere. It implies that the predictability limit is longest in the stratosphere. In the troposphere, most errors come from eddy fields. The UM model might have a trouble at resolving the eddy dynamics. The spatial separation hints at the occurrence of most errors at synoptic scales. Overall, the MSSS give some credits for the evaluation of medium range forecast.

  16. A Logic Model for Evaluating the Academic Health Department.

    PubMed

    Erwin, Paul Campbell; McNeely, Clea S; Grubaugh, Julie H; Valentine, Jennifer; Miller, Mark D; Buchanan, Martha

    2016-01-01

    Academic Health Departments (AHDs) are collaborative partnerships between academic programs and practice settings. While case studies have informed our understanding of the development and activities of AHDs, there has been no formal published evaluation of AHDs, either singularly or collectively. Developing a framework for evaluating AHDs has potential to further aid our understanding of how these relationships may matter. In this article, we present a general theory of change, in the form of a logic model, for how AHDs impact public health at the community level. We then present a specific example of how the logic model has been customized for a specific AHD. Finally, we end with potential research questions on the AHD based on these concepts. We conclude that logic models are valuable tools, which can be used to assess the value and ultimate impact of the AHD.

  17. Evaluating Climate Models: Should We Use Weather or Climate Observations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Maasch, K. A.; Erickson, D. J.; Hays, C.

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  18. Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

    SciTech Connect

    Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  19. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) from AERONET and OMI retrievals and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.6 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 10 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC is 0.6 and underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the

  20. Evaluation of Generation Alternation Models in Evolutionary Robotics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oiso, Masashi; Matsumura, Yoshiyuki; Yasuda, Toshiyuki; Ohkura, Kazuhiro

    For efficient implementation of Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) to a desktop grid computing environment, we propose a new generation alternation model called Grid-Oriented-Deletion (GOD) based on comparison with the conventional techniques. In previous research, generation alternation models are generally evaluated by using test functions. However, their exploration performance on the real problems such as Evolutionary Robotics (ER) has not been made very clear yet. Therefore we investigate the relationship between the exploration performance of EA on an ER problem and its generation alternation model. We applied four generation alternation models to the Evolutionary Multi-Robotics (EMR), which is the package-pushing problem to investigate their exploration performance. The results show that GOD is more effective than the other conventional models.

  1. Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the

  2. Human Modeling Evaluations in Microgravity Workstation and Restraint Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitmore, Mihriban; Chmielewski, Cynthia; Wheaton, Aneice; Hancock, Lorraine; Beierle, Jason; Bond, Robert L. (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) will provide long-term missions which will enable the astronauts to live and work, as well as, conduct research in a microgravity environment. The dominant factor in space affecting the crew is "weightlessness" which creates a challenge for establishing workstation microgravity design requirements. The crewmembers will work at various workstations such as Human Research Facility (HRF), Microgravity Sciences Glovebox (MSG) and Life Sciences Glovebox (LSG). Since the crew will spend considerable amount of time at these workstations, it is critical that ergonomic design requirements are integral part of design and development effort. In order to achieve this goal, the Space Human Factors Laboratory in the Johnson Space Center Flight Crew Support Division has been tasked to conduct integrated evaluations of workstations and associated crew restraints. Thus, a two-phase approach was used: 1) ground and microgravity evaluations of the physical dimensions and layout of the workstation components, and 2) human modeling analyses of the user interface. Computer-based human modeling evaluations were an important part of the approach throughout the design and development process. Human modeling during the conceptual design phase included crew reach and accessibility of individual equipment, as well as, crew restraint needs. During later design phases, human modeling has been used in conjunction with ground reviews and microgravity evaluations of the mock-ups in order to verify the human factors requirements. (Specific examples will be discussed.) This two-phase approach was the most efficient method to determine ergonomic design characteristics for workstations and restraints. The real-time evaluations provided a hands-on implementation in a microgravity environment. On the other hand, only a limited number of participants could be tested. The human modeling evaluations provided a more detailed analysis of the setup. The issues identified

  3. Human Modeling Evaluations in Microgravity Workstation and Restraint Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitmore, Mihriban; Chmielewski, Cynthia; Wheaton, Aneice; Hancock, Lorraine; Beierle, Jason; Bond, Robert L. (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) will provide long-term missions which will enable the astronauts to live and work, as well as, conduct research in a microgravity environment. The dominant factor in space affecting the crew is "weightlessness" which creates a challenge for establishing workstation microgravity design requirements. The crewmembers will work at various workstations such as Human Research Facility (HRF), Microgravity Sciences Glovebox (MSG) and Life Sciences Glovebox (LSG). Since the crew will spend considerable amount of time at these workstations, it is critical that ergonomic design requirements are integral part of design and development effort. In order to achieve this goal, the Space Human Factors Laboratory in the Johnson Space Center Flight Crew Support Division has been tasked to conduct integrated evaluations of workstations and associated crew restraints. Thus, a two-phase approach was used: 1) ground and microgravity evaluations of the physical dimensions and layout of the workstation components, and 2) human modeling analyses of the user interface. Computer-based human modeling evaluations were an important part of the approach throughout the design and development process. Human modeling during the conceptual design phase included crew reach and accessibility of individual equipment, as well as, crew restraint needs. During later design phases, human modeling has been used in conjunction with ground reviews and microgravity evaluations of the mock-ups in order to verify the human factors requirements. (Specific examples will be discussed.) This two-phase approach was the most efficient method to determine ergonomic design characteristics for workstations and restraints. The real-time evaluations provided a hands-on implementation in a microgravity environment. On the other hand, only a limited number of participants could be tested. The human modeling evaluations provided a more detailed analysis of the setup. The issues identified

  4. Minnesota State Teacher Development, Evaluation, and Peer Support Model Evaluation Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dretzke, Beverly; Ingram, Debra; Peterson, Kristin; Sheldon, Timothy; Wahlstrom, Kyla; Baker, Julia; Crampton, Anne; Farnsworth, Elyse; Lim, Alicia Zhi Hoon; Yap, Shannen

    2015-01-01

    Minnesota Statutes 122A.40, Subdivision 8 and 122A.41, Subdivision 5, require that all districts evaluate teachers beginning in the 2014-2015 school year. In response to the statutes, the Minnesota Department of Education (MDE) convened a work group in early winter 2011 to consult with the MDE Commissioner to develop a state model for teacher…

  5. CSEP Evaluations of 24-Hour Earthquake Forecasting Models for California: New Results and Ensemble Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taroni, M.; Werner, M. J.; Liukis, M.; Marzocchi, W.; Rhoades, D. A.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2016-12-01

    Operational Earthquake Forecasting requires reliable and validated earthquake probability estimates at short time scales. The objective of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is to evaluate earthquake forecasting models and hypotheses in a blind, automated and prospective manner. CSEP supports OEF efforts by independently and rigorously evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of candidate OEF models and ensemble OEF models. CSEP has been evaluating over a dozen 24-hour forecasting models in California since 2009. Models include the STEP model, various ETAS model flavors, non-parametric models and other statistical clustered seismicity models. Here, we report on new results from CSEP's 24-hour earthquake forecasting experiment in California. The data set consists of 132 earthquakes greater than magnitude 3.95. Relative probability gains indicate that the predictive skills of the recent models are improving. This suggests progress in modelling future earthquake potential. In addition, we explore protocols for constructing ensemble models. These are a powerful forecasting tool when several informative models are available.

  6. Subjective evaluation criterion for selecting affective features and modeling highlights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Liyuan; Yu, Hua; Huang, Qingming; Ye, Qixiang; Divakaran, Ajay

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a subjective evaluation criterion which is a guide for selecting affective features and modeling highlights. Firstly, the database of highlights ground truth is established, and both the randomness of the data set and the preparation of the subjects are considered. Secondly, commonly used affective features including visual, audio and editing features are extracted to express the highlights. Thirdly, subjective evaluation criterion is proposed based on the analysis of the average error method and pairwise comparisons method, especially the rationality of this criterion in our specific application is explained clearly according to the three detailed issues. Finally, evaluation experiments are designed on tennis and table tennis as examples. Based on the experiments, we prove that previous works on affective features and linear model highlights are effective. Furthermore, 82.0% (79.3%) affective accuracy is obtained fully automatically by computer which is a marvelous highlights ranking result. This result shows the subjective evaluation criterion is well designed for selecting affective features and modeling highlights.

  7. Criteria for the evaluation of studies in transgenic models.

    PubMed

    Popp, J A

    2001-01-01

    The generation, evaluation, and presentation of data from the ILSI Alternatives to Carcinogenicity Testing (ACT) program was standardized to ensure that the results of studies performed in multiple laboratories could be reliably compared. To this end, standardized experimental protocols, tissue collection procedures, histopathology nomenclature, diagnoses, and terminology were employed by study participants. In the experimental phase, this approach provided important cross-model consistency. To ensure comparability in the data evaluation phase of the project, interpretive criteria were defined to allow the characterization of study outcome as positive, negative, or equivocal in regards to carcinogenic response. These criteria helped to provide consistency across models because separate Assay Working Groups were established to evaluate the results of each model. To organize and compile the data from the ILSI ACT program, a database has been developed and data entered in standardized format to facilitate cross- and intramodel comparisons. In summary, the early development of standardized test protocols, evaluation procedures, and interpretive criteria has resulted in a data set in which users can have a high level of assurance that results in the database reflect consistently applied experimental and interpretive guidelines.

  8. Evaluation of reliability modeling tools for advanced fault tolerant systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Robert; Scheper, Charlotte

    1986-01-01

    The Computer Aided Reliability Estimation (CARE III) and Automated Reliability Interactice Estimation System (ARIES 82) reliability tools for application to advanced fault tolerance aerospace systems were evaluated. To determine reliability modeling requirements, the evaluation focused on the Draper Laboratories' Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS) architecture as an example architecture for fault tolerance aerospace systems. Advantages and limitations were identified for each reliability evaluation tool. The CARE III program was designed primarily for analyzing ultrareliable flight control systems. The ARIES 82 program's primary use was to support university research and teaching. Both CARE III and ARIES 82 were not suited for determining the reliability of complex nodal networks of the type used to interconnect processing sites in the AIPS architecture. It was concluded that ARIES was not suitable for modeling advanced fault tolerant systems. It was further concluded that subject to some limitations (the difficulty in modeling systems with unpowered spare modules, systems where equipment maintenance must be considered, systems where failure depends on the sequence in which faults occurred, and systems where multiple faults greater than a double near coincident faults must be considered), CARE III is best suited for evaluating the reliability of advanced tolerant systems for air transport.

  9. Evaluation of development prospects of renewable energy: agent based modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klevakina, E. A.; Zabelina, I. A.; Murtazina, M. Sh

    2017-01-01

    The paper describes the agent-based model usage to evaluate the dynamics and the perspectives of alternative energy adopting in the Eastern regions of Russia. It includes a brief review of the agent-based models that can be used for estimation of alternatives in the process of transition to “green” economics. The authors show that active usage of solar energy in Russia is possible at the rural household level, when the climate conditions are appropriate. Adoption of solar energy sources decreases the energy production based on the conventional sources and improves the quality of environment in the regions. A complex regional multi-agent model is considered in this paper. The model consists of several private models and uses GIS technologies. These private models are a demographic and migration model of the region and a diffusion of the innovations model. In these models, agents are humans who live within the boundaries of the agents-municipalities, and agents as well are large-scale producers of electricity that pollutes the environment. Such a structure allows us to determine the changes in the demand for electricity generated by traditional sources. A simulation software will assist to identify the opportunities for implementation of alternative energy sources in the Eastern regions of Russia.

  10. A Spectral Evaluation of Models Performances in Mediterranean Oak Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vargas, R.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Abramowitz, G.; Carrara, A.; Correia, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Papale, D.; Pearson, D.; Pereira, J.; Piao, S.; Rambal, S.; Sonnentag, O.

    2009-12-01

    Ecosystem processes are influenced by climatic trends at multiple temporal scales including diel patterns and other mid-term climatic modes, such as interannual and seasonal variability. Because interactions between biophysical components of ecosystem processes are complex, it is important to test how models perform in frequency (e.g. hours, days, weeks, months, years) and time (i.e. day of the year) domains in addition to traditional tests of annual or monthly sums. Here we present a spectral evaluation using wavelet time series analysis of model performance in seven Mediterranean Oak Woodlands that encompass three deciduous and four evergreen sites. We tested the performance of five models (CABLE, ORCHIDEE, BEPS, Biome-BGC, and JULES) on measured variables of gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). In general, model performance fails at intermediate periods (e.g. weeks to months) likely because these models do not represent the water pulse dynamics that influence GPP and ET at these Mediterranean systems. To improve the performance of a model it is critical to identify first where and when the model fails. Only by identifying where a model fails we can improve the model performance and use them as prognostic tools and to generate further hypotheses that can be tested by new experiments and measurements.

  11. Evaluation of the RIO-IFDM-street canyon model chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefebvre, W.; Van Poppel, M.; Maiheu, B.; Janssen, S.; Dons, E.

    2013-10-01

    Integration of all relevant spatial scales in concentration modeling is important for assessing the European limit values for NO2. The local NO2-concentrations are influenced by the regional background, the local emissions and the street canyon effects. Therefore, it is important to consistently combine all these contributions in the model setup which is used for such an assessment. In this paper, we present the results of an integrated model chain, consisting of an advanced measurement interpolation model, a bi-Gaussian plume model and a canyon model to simulate the street-level concentrations over the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results of this model chain are evaluated against independent weekly averaged NO2 measurements at 49 locations in the city of Antwerp, during both a late autumn and a late spring week. It is shown that the model performed well, explaining between 62% and 87% of the spatial variance, with a RMSE between 5 and 6 μg m-1 and small biases. In addition to this overall validation, the performance of different components in the model chain is shown, in order to provide information on the importance of the different constituents.

  12. Evaluation of Medical Education virtual Program: P3 model

    PubMed Central

    REZAEE, RITA; SHOKRPOUR, NASRIN; BOROUMAND, MARYAM

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: In e-learning, people get involved in a process and create the content (product) and make it available for virtual learners. The present study was carried out in order to evaluate the first virtual master program in medical education at Shiraz University of Medical Sciences according to P3 Model. Methods: This is an evaluation research study with post single group design used to determine how effective this program was. All students 60 who participated more than one year in this virtual program and 21 experts including teachers and directors participated in this evaluation project. Based on the P3 e-learning model, an evaluation tool with 5-point Likert rating scale was designed and applied to collect the descriptive data. Results: Students reported storyboard and course design as the most desirable element of learning environment (2.30±0.76), but they declared technical support as the less desirable part (1.17±1.23). Conclusion: Presence of such framework in this regard and using it within the format of appropriate tools for evaluation of e-learning in universities and higher education institutes, which present e-learning curricula in the country, may contribute to implementation of the present and future e-learning curricula efficiently and guarantee its implementation in an appropriate way. PMID:27795971

  13. A new decision support model for preanesthetic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Sobrie, Olivier; Lazouni, Mohammed El Amine; Mahmoudi, Saïd; Mousseau, Vincent; Pirlot, Marc

    2016-09-01

    The principal challenges in the field of anesthesia and intensive care consist of reducing both anesthetic risks and mortality rate. The ASA score plays an important role in patients' preanesthetic evaluation. In this paper, we propose a methodology to derive simple rules which classify patients in a category of the ASA scale on the basis of their medical characteristics. This diagnosis system is based on MR-Sort, a multiple criteria decision analysis model. The proposed method intends to support two steps in this process. The first is the assignment of an ASA score to the patient; the second concerns the decision to accept-or not-the patient for surgery. In order to learn the model parameters and assess its effectiveness, we use a database containing the parameters of 898 patients who underwent preanesthesia evaluation. The accuracy of the learned models for predicting the ASA score and the decision of accepting the patient for surgery is assessed and proves to be better than that of other machine learning methods. Furthermore, simple decision rules can be explicitly derived from the learned model. These are easily interpretable by doctors, and their consistency with medical knowledge can be checked. The proposed model for assessing the ASA score produces accurate predictions on the basis of the (limited) set of patient attributes in the database available for the tests. Moreover, the learned MR-Sort model allows for easy interpretation by providing human-readable classification rules. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluating the adaptive-filter model of the cerebellum.

    PubMed

    Dean, Paul; Porrill, John

    2011-07-15

    The adaptive-filter model of the cerebellar microcircuit is in widespread use, combining as it does an explanation of key microcircuit features with well-specified computational power. Here we consider two methods for its evaluation. One is to test its predictions concerning relations between cerebellar inputs and outputs. Where the relevant experimental data are available, e.g. for the floccular role in image stabilization, the predictions appear to be upheld. However, for the majority of cerebellar microzones these data have yet to be obtained. The second method is to test model predictions about details of the microcircuit. We focus on features apparently incompatible with the model, in particular non-linear patterns in Purkinje cell simple-spike firing. Analysis of these patterns suggests the following three conclusions. (i) It is important to establish whether they can be observed during task-related behaviour. (ii) Highly non-linear models based on these patterns are unlikely to be universal, because they would be incompatible with the (approximately) linear nature of floccular function. (iii) The control tasks for which these models are computationally suited need to be identified. At present, therefore, the adaptive filter remains a candidate model of at least some cerebellar microzones, and its evaluation suggests promising lines for future enquiry.

  15. Point evaluation of a surface hydrology model for BOREAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijssen, Bart; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    1997-12-01

    Detailed observations of moisture and energy fluxes made at the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) tower flux sites offer a unique opportunity for the evaluation of hydrological models, since model process representations can be compared with observations. The distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to simulate the latent and sensible heat fluxes at the old black spruce and old jack pine tower flux sites in the southern study area and the old black spruce tower in the northern study area during the summer of 1994. The model did a reasonable job of simulating both the seasonal average fluxes and the diurnal cycle of the surface heat fluxes. However, a lag was observed in the simulation of the sensible heat flux, which was attributed to an inadequate representation of the ground heat flux and ground heat storage. It was also noted that direct soil evaporation forms an important part of the latent heat flux simulated by the model. Incorporation of a more complete soil thermal model, and further field work in 1996 to evaluate the importance of the moss layer and the direct evaporation from the soil, is expected to lead to further improvements.

  16. Evaluation of COMPASS ionospheric model in GNSS positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xiaoli; Hu, Xiaogong; Wang, Gang; Zhong, Huijuan; Tang, Chengpan

    2013-03-01

    As important products of GNSS navigation message, ionospheric delay model parameters are broadcasted for single-frequency users to improve their positioning accuracy. GPS provides daily Klobuchar ionospheric model parameters based on geomagnetic reference frame, while the regional satellite navigation system of China's COMPASS broadcasts an eight-parameter ionospheric model, COMPASS Ionospheric Model(CIM), which was generated by processing data from continuous monitoring stations, with updating the parameters every 2 h. To evaluate its performance, CIM predictions are compared to ionospheric delay measurements, along with GPS positioning accuracy comparisons. Real observed data analysis indicates that CIM provides higher correction precision in middle-latitude regions, but relatively lower correction precision for low-latitude regions where the ionosphere has much higher variability. CIM errors for some users show a common bias for in-coming COMPASS signals from different satellites, and hence ionospheric model errors are somehow translated into the receivers' clock error estimation. In addition, the CIM from the China regional monitoring network are further evaluated for global ionospheric corrections. Results show that in the Northern Hemisphere areas including Asia, Europe and North America, the three-dimensional positioning accuracy using the CIM for ionospheric delay corrections is improved by 7.8%-35.3% when compared to GPS single-frequency positioning ionospheric delay corrections using the Klobuchar model. However, the positioning accuracy in the Southern Hemisphere is degraded due apparently to the lack of monitoring stations there.

  17. Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

  18. Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

  19. Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

    2013-05-01

    In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

  20. Modeling the dynamics of evaluation: a multilevel neural network implementation of the iterative reprocessing model.

    PubMed

    Ehret, Phillip J; Monroe, Brian M; Read, Stephen J

    2015-05-01

    We present a neural network implementation of central components of the iterative reprocessing (IR) model. The IR model argues that the evaluation of social stimuli (attitudes, stereotypes) is the result of the IR of stimuli in a hierarchy of neural systems: The evaluation of social stimuli develops and changes over processing. The network has a multilevel, bidirectional feedback evaluation system that integrates initial perceptual processing and later developing semantic processing. The network processes stimuli (e.g., an individual's appearance) over repeated iterations, with increasingly higher levels of semantic processing over time. As a result, the network's evaluations of stimuli evolve. We discuss the implications of the network for a number of different issues involved in attitudes and social evaluation. The success of the network supports the IR model framework and provides new insights into attitude theory.

  1. Modeling and evaluating user behavior in exploratory visual analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Reda, Khairi; Johnson, Andrew E.; Papka, Michael E.; Leigh, Jason

    2016-10-01

    Empirical evaluation methods for visualizations have traditionally focused on assessing the outcome of the visual analytic process as opposed to characterizing how that process unfolds. There are only a handful of methods that can be used to systematically study how people use visualizations, making it difficult for researchers to capture and characterize the subtlety of cognitive and interaction behaviors users exhibit during visual analysis. To validate and improve visualization design, however, it is important for researchers to be able to assess and understand how users interact with visualization systems under realistic scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for modeling and evaluating the behavior of users in exploratory visual analysis. We model visual exploration using a Markov chain process comprising transitions between mental, interaction, and computational states. These states and the transitions between them can be deduced from a variety of sources, including verbal transcripts, videos and audio recordings, and log files. This model enables the evaluator to characterize the cognitive and computational processes that are essential to insight acquisition in exploratory visual analysis, and reconstruct the dynamics of interaction between the user and the visualization system. We illustrate this model with two exemplar user studies, and demonstrate the qualitative and quantitative analytical tools it affords.

  2. SHEEP AS AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FOR BIOMATERIAL IMPLANT EVALUATION

    PubMed Central

    SARTORETTO, SUELEN CRISTINA; UZEDA, MARCELO JOSÉ; MIGUEL, FÚLVIO BORGES; NASCIMENTO, JHONATHAN RAPHAELL; ASCOLI, FABIO; CALASANS-MAIA, MÔNICA DIUANA

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: Based on a literature review and on our own experience, this study proposes sheep as an experimental model to evaluate the bioactive capacity of bone substitute biomaterials, dental implant systems and orthopedics devices. The literature review covered relevant databases available on the Internet from 1990 until to date, and was supplemented by our own experience. Methods: For its resemblance in size and weight to humans, sheep are quite suitable for use as an experimental model. However, information about their utility as an experimental model is limited. The different stages involving sheep experiments were discussed, including the care during breeding and maintenance of the animals obtaining specimens for laboratory processing, and highlighting the unnecessary euthanasia of animals at the end of study, in accordance to the guidelines of the 3Rs Program. Results: All experiments have been completed without any complications regarding the animals and allowed us to evaluate hypotheses and explain their mechanisms. Conclusion: The sheep is an excellent animal model for evaluation of biomaterial for bone regeneration and dental implant osseointegration. From an ethical point of view, one sheep allows for up to 12 implants per animal, permitting to keep them alive at the end of the experiments. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study. PMID:28149193

  3. Postural effects on intracranial pressure: modeling and clinical evaluation.

    PubMed

    Qvarlander, Sara; Sundström, Nina; Malm, Jan; Eklund, Anders

    2013-11-01

    The physiological effect of posture on intracranial pressure (ICP) is not well described. This study defined and evaluated three mathematical models describing the postural effects on ICP, designed to predict ICP at different head-up tilt angles from the supine ICP value. Model I was based on a hydrostatic indifference point for the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) system, i.e., the existence of a point in the system where pressure is independent of body position. Models II and III were based on Davson's equation for CSF absorption, which relates ICP to venous pressure, and postulated that gravitational effects within the venous system are transferred to the CSF system. Model II assumed a fully communicating venous system, and model III assumed that collapse of the jugular veins at higher tilt angles creates two separate hydrostatic compartments. Evaluation of the models was based on ICP measurements at seven tilt angles (0-71°) in 27 normal pressure hydrocephalus patients. ICP decreased with tilt angle (ANOVA: P < 0.01). The reduction was well predicted by model III (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P = 0.65), which showed excellent fit against measured ICP. Neither model I nor II adequately described the reduction in ICP (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P < 0.01). Postural changes in ICP could not be predicted based on the currently accepted theory of a hydrostatic indifference point for the CSF system, but a new model combining Davson's equation for CSF absorption and hydrostatic gradients in a collapsible venous system performed well and can be useful in future research on gravity and CSF physiology.

  4. Evaluating Topic Model Interpretability from a Primary Care Physician Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Corey W.; Oh, Andrea; Chen, Shawn; Speier, William

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objective Probabilistic topic models provide an unsupervised method for analyzing unstructured text. These models discover semantically coherent combinations of words (topics) that could be integrated in a clinical automatic summarization system for primary care physicians performing chart review. However, the human interpretability of topics discovered from clinical reports is unknown. Our objective is to assess the coherence of topics and their ability to represent the contents of clinical reports from a primary care physician’s point of view. Methods Three latent Dirichlet allocation models (50 topics, 100 topics, and 150 topics) were fit to a large collection of clinical reports. Topics were manually evaluated by primary care physicians and graduate students. Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Tests for Paired Samples were used to evaluate differences between different topic models, while differences in performance between students and primary care physicians (PCPs) were tested using Mann-Whitney U tests for each of the tasks. Results While the 150-topic model produced the best log likelihood, participants were most accurate at identifying words that did not belong in topics learned by the 100-topic model, suggesting that 100 topics provides better relative granularity of discovered semantic themes for the data set used in this study. Models were comparable in their ability to represent the contents of documents. Primary care physicians significantly outperformed students in both tasks. Conclusion This work establishes a baseline of interpretability for topic models trained with clinical reports, and provides insights on the appropriateness of using topic models for informatics applications. Our results indicate that PCPs find discovered topics more coherent and representative of clinical reports relative to students, warranting further research into their use for automatic summarization. PMID:26614020

  5. Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eder, Brian; Bash, Jesse; Foley, Kristen; Pleim, Jon

    2014-01-01

    The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the intent of motivating its use by the evaluation community. One of the main objectives of PCA is to identify, through data reduction, the recurring and independent modes of variations (or signals) within a very large dataset, thereby summarizing the essential information of that dataset so that meaningful and descriptive conclusions can be made. In this demonstration, PCA is applied to a simple evaluation metric - the model bias associated with EPA's Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model when compared to weekly observations of sulfate (SO42-) and ammonium (NH4+) ambient air concentrations measured by the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet). The advantages of using this technique are demonstrated as it identifies strong and systematic patterns of CMAQ model bias across a myriad of spatial and temporal scales that are neither constrained to geopolitical boundaries nor monthly/seasonal time periods (a limitation of many current studies). The technique also identifies locations (station-grid cell pairs) that are used as indicators for a more thorough diagnostic evaluation thereby hastening and facilitating understanding of the probable mechanisms responsible for the unique behavior among bias regimes. A sampling of results indicates that biases are still prevalent in both SO42- and NH4+ simulations that can be attributed to either: 1) cloud processes in the meteorological model utilized by CMAQ, which are found to overestimated convective clouds and precipitation, while underestimating larger-scale resolved clouds that are less likely to precipitate, and 2) biases associated with Midwest NH3 emissions which may be partially ameliorated

  6. Ozone deposition modelling within the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation provides an overview of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). It contains a synopsis of the three phases of AQMEII, including objectives, logistics, and timelines. It also provides a number of examples of analyses conducted through ...

  7. Evaluation of Model Recognition for Grammar-Based Automatic 3d Building Model Reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Qian; Helmholz, Petra; Belton, David

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, 3D city models are in high demand by many public and private organisations, and the steadily growing capacity in both quality and quantity are increasing demand. The quality evaluation of these 3D models is a relevant issue both from the scientific and practical points of view. In this paper, we present a method for the quality evaluation of 3D building models which are reconstructed automatically from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data based on an attributed building grammar. The entire evaluation process has been performed in all the three dimensions in terms of completeness and correctness of the reconstruction. Six quality measures are introduced to apply on four datasets of reconstructed building models in order to describe the quality of the automatic reconstruction, and also are assessed on their validity from the evaluation point of view.

  8. The Acoustic Model Evaluation Committee (AMEC) Reports. Volume 1. Model Evaluation Methodology and Implementation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    acknowledge the valuable con- tributions of Dr. F. R. DiNapoli of the Naval Under- water Systems Center, New London, Conn., while he was chairman of the Panel...request. loss ( RIPL ), range depeadent propagation The test cases will be designed to eval- loss (RDPL), directional ambient noise uate the model’s...source, 1 shot per 10 nm Range over which Environment Is Range Independent: 0-240 nm water Depth: 1500 fathoms mnax (2750 m) 1420 fathoms min (2600 m

  9. An Evaluation of the Decision-Making Capacity Assessment Model.

    PubMed

    Brémault-Phillips, Suzette C; Parmar, Jasneet; Friesen, Steven; Rogers, Laura G; Pike, Ashley; Sluggett, Bryan

    2016-09-01

    The Decision-Making Capacity Assessment (DMCA) Model includes a best-practice process and tools to assess DMCA, and implementation strategies at the organizational and assessor levels to support provision of DMCAs across the care continuum. A Developmental Evaluation of the DMCA Model was conducted. A mixed methods approach was used. Survey (N = 126) and focus group (N = 49) data were collected from practitioners utilizing the Model. Strengths of the Model include its best-practice and implementation approach, applicability to independent practitioners and inter-professional teams, focus on training/mentoring to enhance knowledge/skills, and provision of tools/processes. Post-training, participants agreed that they followed the Model's guiding principles (90%), used problem-solving (92%), understood discipline-specific roles (87%), were confident in their knowledge of DMCAs (75%) and pertinent legislation (72%), accessed consultative services (88%), and received management support (64%). Model implementation is impeded when role clarity, physician engagement, inter-professional buy-in, accountability, dedicated resources, information sharing systems, and remuneration are lacking. Dedicated resources, job descriptions inclusive of DMCAs, ongoing education/mentoring supports, access to consultative services, and appropriate remuneration would support implementation. The DMCA Model offers practitioners, inter-professional teams, and organizations a best-practice and implementation approach to DMCAs. Addressing barriers and further contextualizing the Model would be warranted.

  10. Evaluation of a locally homogeneous flow model of spray combustion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mao, C.-P.; Szekely, G. A., Jr.; Faeth, G. M.

    1980-01-01

    A simplified model of spray combustion was evaluated. The model was compared with measurements in both a gaseous propane flame and an air atomized n-pentane spray flame (35 micron Sauter mean diameter). Profiles of mean velocity, temperature, and species concentrations, as well as velocity fluctuations and Reynolds stress, were measured. The predictions for the gas flame were in excellent agreement with measurements, except for product species concentrations where errors due to finite reaction rates were detected. Predictions within the spray were qualitatively correct, but the model overestimated the rate of development of the flow; e.g., predicted flame lengths were 30% shorter than measured. Calibrated drop-life-history calculations showed that finite interphase transport rates caused the discrepancy and that initial drop diameters less than 20 microns would be required for quantitative accuracy of the model.

  11. obs4MIPS: Satellite Datasets for Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraro, R.; Waliser, D. E.; Gleckler, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    This poster will review the current status of the obs4MIPs project, whose purpose is to provide a limited collection of well-established and documented datasets for comparison with Earth system models. These datasets have been reformatted to correspond with the CMIP5 model output requirements, and include technical documentation specifically targeted for their use in model output evaluation. There are currently over 50 datasets containing observations that directly correspond to CMIP5 model output variables. We will review the rational and requirements for obs4MIPs contributions, and provide summary information of the current obs4MIPs holdings on the Earth System Grid Federation. We will also provide some usage statistics, an update on governance for the obs4MIPs project, and plans for supporting CMIP6.

  12. An epidemic model to evaluate the homogeneous mixing assumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turnes, P. P.; Monteiro, L. H. A.

    2014-11-01

    Many epidemic models are written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). This approach relies on the homogeneous mixing assumption; that is, the topological structure of the contact network established by the individuals of the host population is not relevant to predict the spread of a pathogen in this population. Here, we propose an epidemic model based on ODE to study the propagation of contagious diseases conferring no immunity. The state variables of this model are the percentages of susceptible individuals, infectious individuals and empty space. We show that this dynamical system can experience transcritical and Hopf bifurcations. Then, we employ this model to evaluate the validity of the homogeneous mixing assumption by using real data related to the transmission of gonorrhea, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and obesity.

  13. Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, Timothy K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1991-01-01

    Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

  14. A hierarchical energy efficiency evaluation model of numerical control workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Binzi; Wang, Yan; Ji, Zhicheng

    2017-07-01

    Energy consumption of numerical control (NC) workshop has lots of characteristics, such as hierarchy, multi-sources and time-varying. These characteristics make the modeling and evaluation of energy consumption in NC workshop very difficult. In this paper, a novel hierarchical model of the energy consumption in NC workshop is presented. Then, the calculation methods of energy efficiency in each layer are given. Furthermore, the acquisition method of the energy consumption data which is easily implemented is put forward and an experiment in NC workshop was made to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed energy consumption model. The experimental results showed that the model cannot only describe the energy consumption effectively but also provide a way to identify the bottleneck of energy consumption in the workshop.

  15. scoringRules - A software package for probabilistic model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Jordan, Alexander; Krüger, Fabian

    2016-04-01

    Models in the geosciences are generally surrounded by uncertainty, and being able to quantify this uncertainty is key to good decision making. Accordingly, probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive distributions have become popular over the last decades. With the proliferation of probabilistic models arises the need for decision theoretically principled tools to evaluate the appropriateness of models and forecasts in a generalized way. Various scoring rules have been developed over the past decades to address this demand. Proper scoring rules are functions S(F,y) which evaluate the accuracy of a forecast distribution F , given that an outcome y was observed. As such, they allow to compare alternative models, a crucial ability given the variety of theories, data sources and statistical specifications that is available in many situations. This poster presents the software package scoringRules for the statistical programming language R, which contains functions to compute popular scoring rules such as the continuous ranked probability score for a variety of distributions F that come up in applied work. Two main classes are parametric distributions like normal, t, or gamma distributions, and distributions that are not known analytically, but are indirectly described through a sample of simulation draws. For example, Bayesian forecasts produced via Markov Chain Monte Carlo take this form. Thereby, the scoringRules package provides a framework for generalized model evaluation that both includes Bayesian as well as classical parametric models. The scoringRules package aims to be a convenient dictionary-like reference for computing scoring rules. We offer state of the art implementations of several known (but not routinely applied) formulas, and implement closed-form expressions that were previously unavailable. Whenever more than one implementation variant exists, we offer statistically principled default choices.

  16. Evaluation of a puff dispersion model in complex terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Thuillier, R.H. )

    1992-03-01

    California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company has many power plant operations situated in complex terrain, prominent examples being the Geysers geothermal plant in Lake and Sonoma Counties, and the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in San Luis Obispo County. Procedures ranging from plant licensing to emergency response require a dispersion modeling capability in a complex terrain environment. This paper describes the performance evaluation of such a capability, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company Modeling System (PGEMS), a fast response Gaussian puff model with a three-dimensional wind field generator. Performance of the model was evaluated for ground level and short stack elevated release on the basis of a special intensive tracer experiment in the complex coastal terrain surrounding the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in San Luis Obispo County, California. The model performed well under a variety of meteorological and release conditions within the test region of 20-kilometer radius surrounding the nuclear plant, and turned in a superior performance in the wake of the nuclear plant, using a new wake correction algorithm for ground level and roof-vent releases a that location.

  17. Evaluation of predictions in the CASP10 model refinement category.

    PubMed

    Nugent, Timothy; Cozzetto, Domenico; Jones, David T

    2014-02-01

    Here we report on the assessment results of the third experiment to evaluate the state of the art in protein model refinement, where participants were invited to improve the accuracy of initial protein models for 27 targets. Using an array of complementary evaluation measures, we find that five groups performed better than the naïve (null) method-a marked improvement over CASP9, although only three were significantly better. The leading groups also demonstrated the ability to consistently improve both backbone and side chain positioning, while other groups reliably enhanced other aspects of protein physicality. The top-ranked group succeeded in improving the backbone conformation in almost 90% of targets, suggesting a strategy that for the first time in CASP refinement is successful in a clear majority of cases. A number of issues remain unsolved: the majority of groups still fail to improve the quality of the starting models; even successful groups are only able to make modest improvements; and no prediction is more similar to the native structure than to the starting model. Successful refinement attempts also often go unrecognized, as suggested by the relatively larger improvements when predictions not submitted as model 1 are also considered. Copyright © The Authors Proteins: Structure, Function, and Bioinformatics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Evaluation of predictions in the CASP10 model refinement category

    PubMed Central

    Nugent, Timothy; Cozzetto, Domenico; Jones, David T

    2014-01-01

    Here we report on the assessment results of the third experiment to evaluate the state of the art in protein model refinement, where participants were invited to improve the accuracy of initial protein models for 27 targets. Using an array of complementary evaluation measures, we find that five groups performed better than the naïve (null) method—a marked improvement over CASP9, although only three were significantly better. The leading groups also demonstrated the ability to consistently improve both backbone and side chain positioning, while other groups reliably enhanced other aspects of protein physicality. The top-ranked group succeeded in improving the backbone conformation in almost 90% of targets, suggesting a strategy that for the first time in CASP refinement is successful in a clear majority of cases. A number of issues remain unsolved: the majority of groups still fail to improve the quality of the starting models; even successful groups are only able to make modest improvements; and no prediction is more similar to the native structure than to the starting model. Successful refinement attempts also often go unrecognized, as suggested by the relatively larger improvements when predictions not submitted as model 1 are also considered. Proteins 2014; 82(Suppl 2):98–111. PMID:23900810

  19. Physically based evaluation of climate models over the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez de Cos, Carmen; Sánchez-Laulhé, Jose M.; Jiménez-Alonso, Carlos; Sancho-Avila, Juan M.; Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto

    2013-04-01

    A novel approach is proposed for evaluating regional climate models based on the comparison of empirical relationships among model outcome variables. The approach is actually a quantitative adaptation of the method for evaluating global climate models proposed by Betts (Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1673-1688, 2004). Three selected relationships among different magnitudes involved in water and energy land surface budgets are firstly established using daily re-analysis data. The selected relationships are obtained for an area encompassing two river basins in the southern Iberian Peninsula corresponding to 2 months, representative of dry and wet seasons. The same corresponding relations are also computed for each of the thirteen regional simulations of the ENSEMBLES project over the same area. The usage of a metric based on the Hellinger coefficient allows a quantitative estimation of how well models are performing in simulating the relations among surface magnitudes. Finally, a series of six rankings of the thirteen regional climate models participating in the ENSEMBLES project is obtained based on their ability to simulate such surface processes.

  20. A formative model for student nurse development and evaluation--Part 1--Developing the model.

    PubMed

    van der Merwe, A S; Roos, E C; Mulder, M; Joubert, A; Botha, D E; Coetzee, M H; Lombard, A; van Niekerk, A; Visser, L

    1996-12-01

    Preparing student nurses for the profession is a complex task for nurse educators; especially when dealing with the development of personal and interpersonal skills, qualities and values held in high esteem by the nursing profession and the community they serve. These researchers developed a model for formative evaluation of students by using the principles of inductive and deductive reasoning. This model was implemented in clinical practice situations and evaluated for its usefulness. It seems that the model enhanced the standards of nursing care because it had a positive effect on the behavior of students and they were better motivated; the model also improved interpersonal relationships and communication between practising nurses and students. The fact that students repeatedly use the model as a norm for self evaluation ensures that they are constantly reminded of the standards required of a professional nurse.