Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.

PubMed

Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K

2014-05-01

A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.

78 FR 40688 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Swiss Chard From Colombia...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-08

...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Swiss Chard From Colombia Into the... availability. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... weeds via the importation of Swiss chard from Colombia. We are making the pest risk analysis available...

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

78 FR 63448 - Notice of Decision To Allow Interstate Movement of Sapote Fruit From Puerto Rico Into the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-24

... States of fresh sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. Based on the findings of a pest risk analysis, which we... announcing the availability of the pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... measures if: (1) No comments were received on the pest risk analysis; (2) the comments on the pest risk...

Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.D.

This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medicalmore » system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.« less

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

2014-01-01

Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks. PMID:25210944

Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) I/D polymorphism is a risk factor of allergic rhinitis.

PubMed

Li, P; Cao, L; Han, X

2017-08-30

Some previous studies and meta-analysis investigated the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and allergic rhinitis risk. However, the results were conflicting. This meta-analysis, therefore, was performed to evaluate the association between ACE I/D polymorphism and allergic rhinitis risk. Online electronic databases (PubMed and EMBASE) were searched. The strength was evaluated by calculating the OR and 95% CI. Five studies were finally included in this meta-analysis. These studies included 681 cases and 629 controls. ACE I/D polymorphism was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.07 - 1.29; P = 0.001). In the subgroup analysis of race, Asians showed the increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.15; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.30; P = 0.03). In a stratified analysis by age, adults with ACE I/D polymorphism showed the increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.16; 95% CI 1.04 - 1.29; P = 0.006). However, children did not have the significantly increased allergic rhinitis risk (OR = 1.24; 95% CI 0.99 - 1.56; P = 0.06). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that ACE I/D polymorphism was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis risk.

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

PubMed

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

ARAMIS project: a more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance.

PubMed

de Dianous, Valérie; Fiévez, Cécile

2006-03-31

Over the last two decades a growing interest for risk analysis has been noted in the industries. The ARAMIS project has defined a methodology for risk assessment. This methodology has been built to help the industrialist to demonstrate that they have a sufficient risk control on their site. Risk analysis consists first in the identification of all the major accidents, assuming that safety functions in place are inefficient. This step of identification of the major accidents uses bow-tie diagrams. Secondly, the safety barriers really implemented on the site are taken into account. The barriers are identified on the bow-ties. An evaluation of their performance (response time, efficiency, and level of confidence) is performed to validate that they are relevant for the expected safety function. At last, the evaluation of their probability of failure enables to assess the frequency of occurrence of the accident. The demonstration of the risk control based on a couple gravity/frequency of occurrence is also possible for all the accident scenarios. During the risk analysis, a practical tool called risk graph is used to assess if the number and the reliability of the safety functions for a given cause are sufficient to reach a good risk control.

The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

PubMed

Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

2007-09-01

In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...

75 FR 39203 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Importation of Wall Rocket Leaves from the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-08

...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Importation of Wall Rocket Leaves from the United... respect to perennial wall rocket leaves grown in the United Kingdom. The analysis evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental United States of fresh leaves of perennial wall rocket...

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun

2011-10-01

Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.

Risk Assessment on Constructors during Over-water Riprap Based on Entropy Weight and FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tongqing; Li, Liang; Liang, Zelong; Mao, Tian; Shao, Weifeng

2017-07-01

Being aimed at waterway regulation engineering, there exist risks of over-water riprap for constructors which keeps uncertainty and complexity. For the purpose of evaluating the possibility and consequence, this paper utilizes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with abbreviation of FAHP to do empowerment on the related risk indicators, constructs FAHP under entropy weight and establishes relevant evaluation factor set and evaluation language for constructors during over-water riprap construction process. Through doing risk probability estimation and risk consequence size evaluation on the factor of constructors, this paper introduces this model into risk analysis on constructors during over-water riprap of Ching River waterway regulation project. Results show that evaluation of this method is so credible that it could be utilized in practical engineering.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

High prevalence of suicide risk in people living with HIV: who is at higher risk?

PubMed

Passos, Susane Müller Klug; Souza, Luciano Dias de Mattos; Spessato, Bárbara Coiro

2014-01-01

A cross-sectional study was developed to evaluate suicide risk and associated factors in HIV/AIDS patients at a regional reference center for the treatment of HIV/AIDS in southern Brazil. We assessed 211 patients in regard to suicide risk, clinical and sociodemographic characteristics, drug use, depression, and anxiety. Suicide risk was assessed with Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Module C. Multivariate analysis was performed using Poisson regression. Of the total sample, 34.1% were at risk of suicide. In the multivariate analysis, the following variables were independently associated with suicide risk: female gender; age up to 47 years; unemployment; indicative of anxiety; indicative of depression; and abuse or addiction on psychoactive substances. Suicide risk is high in this population. Psychosocial factors should be included in the physical and clinical evaluation, given their strong association with suicide risk.

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-05-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

Bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy and the risk of prematurity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Flynn, C A; Helwig, A L; Meurer, L N

1999-11-01

We conducted this meta-analysis to determine the magnitude of risk conferred by bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy on preterm delivery. We selected articles from a combination of the results of a MEDLINE search (1966-1996), a manual search of bibliographies, and contact with leading researchers. We included case control and cohort studies evaluating the risk of preterm delivery, low birth weight, preterm premature rupture of membranes, or preterm labor for pregnant women who had bacterial vaginosis and those who did not. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS. Two investigators independently conducted literature searches, applied inclusion criteria, performed data extraction, and critically appraised included studies. Summary estimates of risk were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) using the fixed and random effects models. We included 19 studies in the final analysis. Bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for all outcomes evaluated. In the subanalyses for preterm delivery, bacterial vaginosis remained a significant risk factor. Pooling adjusted ORs yielded a 60% increased risk of preterm delivery given the presence of bacterial vaginosis. Bacterial vaginosis is an important risk factor for prematurity and pregnancy morbidity. Further studies will help clarify the benefits of treating bacterial vaginosis and the potential role of screening during pregnancy.

Medical-device risk management and public safety: using cost-benefit as a measurement of effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Allen A.

1994-12-01

Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.

Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

2013-01-01

Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain: application and evaluation of a risk management framework.

PubMed

Salmon, P; Williamson, A; Lenné, M; Mitsopoulos-Rubens, E; Rudin-Brown, C M

2010-08-01

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Accidents represent a significant problem within the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an evaluation of a risk management framework that can be used to understand such accidents and to inform the development of accident countermeasures and mitigation strategies for the led outdoor activity domain.

Evaluation and simplification of the occupational slip, trip and fall risk-assessment test

PubMed Central

NAKAMURA, Takehiro; OYAMA, Ichiro; FUJINO, Yoshihisa; KUBO, Tatsuhiko; KADOWAKI, Koji; KUNIMOTO, Masamizu; ODOI, Haruka; TABATA, Hidetoshi; MATSUDA, Shinya

2016-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the efficacy of the occupational slip, trip and fall (STF) risk assessment test developed by the Japan Industrial Safety and Health Association (JISHA). We further intended to simplify the test to improve efficiency. Methods: A previous cohort study was performed using 540 employees aged ≥50 years who took the JISHA’s STF risk assessment test. We conducted multivariate analysis using these previous results as baseline values and answers to questionnaire items or score on physical fitness tests as variables. The screening efficiency of each model was evaluated based on the obtained receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: The area under the ROC obtained in multivariate analysis was 0.79 when using all items. Six of the 25 questionnaire items were selected for stepwise analysis, giving an area under the ROC curve of 0.77. Conclusion: Based on the results of follow-up performed one year after the initial examination, we successfully determined the usefulness of the STF risk assessment test. Administering a questionnaire alone is sufficient for screening subjects at risk of STF during the subsequent one-year period. PMID:27021057

[Incidence and surgical wound infection risk factors in breast cancer surgery].

PubMed

Lefebvre, D; Penel, N; Deberles, M F; Fournier, C

2000-11-18

In order to evaluate occurrence and risk factors for wound infection (WI) in breast cancer surgery, we carried out a prospective study. From September 1996 through April 1997, an infection control physician prospectively evaluated 542 wounds of all patients having breast cancer surgery at the Oscar Lambret Cancer Center. WI was defined as a wound with pus. Antibiotic prophylaxis was given in case of immediate breast reconstruction. Statistical evaluation was performed using the c < or = test for categorial data and non-parametric Mann-Whitney test for continuous data. In univariate analysis, differences were considered significant at p < 0.01. The overall WI rate was 3.51% (19/352). In univariate analysis, risk factors for WI were: total preoperative hospital stay (p = 0.01), previous chemotherapy (p = 0.01), previous oncologic surgery (p = 0.03) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.002). In mutivariate analysis, we observed two independent predictive factors for WI: previous chemotherapy (p = 0.05) and immediate breast reconstruction (p = 0.02). Previous anticancer chemotherapy was a major risk factor. In these cases, a phase III trial could confirm efficacy of standard antibiotic prophylaxis. Breast reconstruction was the second major risk factor. Standard antibiotic prophylaxis (used in our study) was insufficient.

Software for occupational health and safety risk analysis based on a fuzzy model.

PubMed

Stefanovic, Miladin; Tadic, Danijela; Djapan, Marko; Macuzic, Ivan

2012-01-01

Risk and safety management are very important issues in healthcare systems. Those are complex systems with many entities, hazards and uncertainties. In such an environment, it is very hard to introduce a system for evaluating and simulating significant hazards. In this paper, we analyzed different types of hazards in healthcare systems and we introduced a new fuzzy model for evaluating and ranking hazards. Finally, we presented a developed software solution, based on the suggested fuzzy model for evaluating and monitoring risk.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-01

This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

Risk management for outsourcing biomedical waste disposal – Using the failure mode and effects analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liao, Ching-Jong; Ho, Chao Chung, E-mail: ho919@pchome.com.tw

Highlights: • This study is based on a real case in hospital in Taiwan. • We use Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as the evaluation method. • We successfully identify the evaluation factors of bio-medical waste disposal risk. - Abstract: Using the failure mode and effects analysis, this study examined biomedical waste companies through risk assessment. Moreover, it evaluated the supervisors of biomedical waste units in hospitals, and factors relating to the outsourcing risk assessment of biomedical waste in hospitals by referring to waste disposal acts. An expert questionnaire survey was conducted on the personnel involved in waste disposalmore » units in hospitals, in order to identify important factors relating to the outsourcing risk of biomedical waste in hospitals. This study calculated the risk priority number (RPN) and selected items with an RPN value higher than 80 for improvement. These items included “availability of freezing devices”, “availability of containers for sharp items”, “disposal frequency”, “disposal volume”, “disposal method”, “vehicles meeting the regulations”, and “declaration of three lists”. This study also aimed to identify important selection factors of biomedical waste disposal companies by hospitals in terms of risk. These findings can serve as references for hospitals in the selection of outsourcing companies for biomedical waste disposal.« less

An Independent Evaluation of the FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis Alternative Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1996-01-01

The present instruments of safety and reliability risk control for a majority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs/projects consist of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Critical Items List (CIL), and Hazard Report (HR). This extensive analytical approach was introduced in the early 1970's and was implemented for the Space Shuttle Program by NHB 5300.4 (1D-2. Since the Challenger accident in 1986, the process has been expanded considerably and resulted in introduction of similar and/or duplicated activities in the safety/reliability risk analysis. A study initiated in 1995, to search for an alternative to the current FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis methodology generated a proposed method on April 30, 1996. The objective of this Summer Faculty Study was to participate in and conduct an independent evaluation of the proposed alternative to simplify the present safety and reliability risk control procedure.

Analysis and Risk Evaluation on the Case of Alteration, Revitalization and Conversion of a Historic Building in Gdańsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grzyl, Beata; Kristowski, Adam; Miszewska-Urbańska, Emilia

2017-10-01

Each investment plan, including the one concerning a building, is exposed to the consequences of various types of threats taking place. Therefore, in the case of some large-scale, atypical and complicated building ventures, some actions included in the procedure of risk management should be taken (identifications, analysis, measurements, control and supervision of the risk). This will allow for the risk to be eliminated or limited. While preparing a building venture, an investor does not possess full information about the course of events on each stage of investment completion. The identification of the above-mentioned unknowns, subjecting them to quantification and specifying the method of dealing with them, allows an investor to increase the effectiveness of the intended plan. The enterprise discussed in this article and analyzed in the context of risk, concerns alteration, revitalization and conversion for office purposes of two buildings located in Gdańsk at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street. These buildings are situated on the area of historical urban layout of Gdańsk, in the northern-eastern part of Stare Przedmieście District (Old Suburb), about 800 meters south from Dlugi Targ Street and 200 meters west from The Old Motława River. The investor is “Gdańskie Melioracje Ltd.”, a limited liability company, which belongs to the Council of Gdańsk. In order to increase the effectiveness of the intended investment venture, while organizing the investment process, the investor commissioned preparation of an analysis and risk evaluation connected with the above-mentioned intention. Based on an on-site visit, the opinions of experts, who have been involved in the process of the preparation of the investment, studies of the available monographies about the technical condition of the buildings at 1 and 2 Lastadia Street and their own experiences, the authors identified 54 types of relevant risks, which have been systematized into 10 subject groups (among others- investor’s risk due to the designing process, location of the investment, third party or investor business activity, force majeure, political, legal, financial, technical). The scope of the study includes the identification, analysis and risk evaluation connected with planning and completion of alteration, revitalization and conversion of a historic building located at 2 Lastadia Street for the office purposes. The risk has been analyzed from the investor’s perspective. The authors used a method of preliminary analysis and risk evaluation PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) and the expert method.

Evaluation of performance of footwear and flooring systems in combination with personnel using voltage probability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallwood, Jeremy; Swenson, David E.

2011-06-01

Evaluation of electrostatic performance of footwear and flooring in combination is necessary in applications such as electrostatic discharge (ESD) control in electronics manufacture, evaluation of equipment for avoidance of factory process electrostatic ignition risks and avoidance of electrostatic shocks to personnel in working environments. Typical standards use a walking test in which the voltage produced on a subject is evaluated by identification and measurement of the magnitude of the 5 highest "peaks" and "valleys" of the recorded voltage waveform. This method does not lend itself to effective analysis of the risk that the voltage will exceed a hazard threshold. This paper shows the advantages of voltage probability analysis and recommends that the method is adopted for use in future standards.

Application of probabilistic risk assessment: Evaluating remedial alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Ruffle, Betsy; Henderson, James; Murphy-Hagan, Clare; Kirkwood, Gemma; Wolf, Frederick; Edwards, Deborah A

2018-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the "Site"). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10 -4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10 -5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:63-78. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

75 FR 6346 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-09

...] Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash Flowers... evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh male summer squash flowers from Israel into the... summer squash flowers, Cucurbita pepo L. into the continental United States. Currently, fresh male summer...

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

2008-01-01

The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

2004-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

Innovative neuro-fuzzy system of smart transport infrastructure for road traffic safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beinarovica, Anna; Gorobetz, Mikhail; Levchenkov, Anatoly

2017-09-01

The proposed study describes applying of neural network and fuzzy logic in transport control for safety improvement by evaluation of accidents’ risk by intelligent infrastructure devices. Risk evaluation is made by following multiple-criteria: danger, changeability and influence of changes for risk increasing. Neuro-fuzzy algorithms are described and proposed for task solution. The novelty of the proposed system is proved by deep analysis of known studies in the field. The structure of neuro-fuzzy system for risk evaluation and mathematical model is described in the paper. The simulation model of the intelligent devices for transport infrastructure is proposed to simulate different situations, assess the risks and propose the possible actions for infrastructure or vehicles to minimize the risk of possible accidents.

Failure mode and effect analysis in blood transfusion: a proactive tool to reduce risks.

PubMed

Lu, Yao; Teng, Fang; Zhou, Jie; Wen, Aiqing; Bi, Yutian

2013-12-01

The aim of blood transfusion risk management is to improve the quality of blood products and to assure patient safety. We utilize failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), a tool employed for evaluating risks and identifying preventive measures to reduce the risks in blood transfusion. The failure modes and effects occurring throughout the whole process of blood transfusion were studied. Each failure mode was evaluated using three scores: severity of effect (S), likelihood of occurrence (O), and probability of detection (D). Risk priority numbers (RPNs) were calculated by multiplying the S, O, and D scores. The plan-do-check-act cycle was also used for continuous improvement. Analysis has showed that failure modes with the highest RPNs, and therefore the greatest risk, were insufficient preoperative assessment of the blood product requirement (RPN, 245), preparation time before infusion of more than 30 minutes (RPN, 240), blood transfusion reaction occurring during the transfusion process (RPN, 224), blood plasma abuse (RPN, 180), and insufficient and/or incorrect clinical information on request form (RPN, 126). After implementation of preventative measures and reassessment, a reduction in RPN was detected with each risk. The failure mode with the second highest RPN, namely, preparation time before infusion of more than 30 minutes, was shown in detail to prove the efficiency of this tool. FMEA evaluation model is a useful tool in proactively analyzing and reducing the risks associated with the blood transfusion procedure. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

76 FR 32933 - International Standard-Setting Activities

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-07

... or re-evaluation by JECFA. Proposed amendments to the Risk Analysis Principles for CCRVDF for comments and consideration at the next session. Proposed revision of Risk Analysis Principles Applied by... the Classification of Foods and Animal Feeds: Tree Nuts, Herbs and Spices. Draft Principle and...

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Risk assessment comparison of biomechanical overloading of the musculoskeletal system: 10 years' applied experience].

PubMed

Sala, Emma; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Fostinellil, Jacopo; Tomasi, Cesare; Graziosi, Francesca; Violante, Francesco S; Apostoli, Pietro

2014-01-01

Risk assessment for upper extremity work related muscoloskeletal disorders by applying six methods of ergonomic: a ten years experience. The objective of this research was to verify and validate the multiple step method suggested by SIMLII guidelines and to compare results obtained by use of these methods: Washington State Standard, OCRA, HAL, RULA, OREGE and STRAIN INDEX. 598 workstations for a total of 1800 analysis by different methods were considered, by adopting the following multiple step procedure: prelinminary evaluation by Washington State method and OCRA checklist in all the working stations, RULA or HAL as first level evaluation, OREGE or SI as second level evaluation. The preliminary evaluation resulted negative (risk absent) in the 75% of examined work stations and by using checklist OCRA optimal-acceptable condition was found in 58% by HAL in 92% of analysis, by RULA in 100%, by OREGE in 64%; by SI in 70% of examined working positions. We observed similar evaluation of strain among methods and main differences have been observed in posture and frequency assessment. The preliminary evaluation by State of Washington method appears to be an adequate instrument for identify the working condition at risk. All the adopted methods were in a good agreement in two estreme situations: high risk or absent risk, expecially in absent risk conditions. Level of accordance varied on the basis of their rationale and of the role of their different components so SIML indications about the critical use of biouzechanical methods and about the possible use of more than one of them (considering working chlaracteristics) have been confirmed.

Evaluating management risks using landscape trajectory analysis: a case study of California fisher

Treesearch

Craig M. Thompson; William J. Zielinski; Kathryn L. Purcell

2011-01-01

Ecosystem management requires an understanding of how landscapes vary in space and time, how this variation can be affected by management decisions or stochastic events, and the potential consequences for species. Landscape trajectory analysis, coupled with a basic knowledge of species habitat selection, offers a straightforward approach to ecological risk analysis and...

Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

Low-thrust mission risk analysis, with application to a 1980 rendezvous with the comet Encke

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

1973-01-01

A computerized failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust sybsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargeting operations. The method is applied to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to the comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates are the limiting factors in attaining a high mission relability. It is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

2016-08-01

To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P < 0.00001) and octreotide (odds ratio 3.30, P < 0.00001). When adjusting for risk, performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Risk of wound infection and safety profile of amoxicillin in healthy patients which required third molar surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, M A; Aragon-Martinez, O H; Martínez-Morales, J F; Zapata-Morales, J R

2015-11-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the risk of surgical wound infection and the adverse effects of amoxicillin in healthy patients who required excision of third molars. We identified eligible reports from searches of PubMed, Medline®, the Cochrane Library, Imbiomed, LILACS, and Google Scholar. Studies that met our minimum requirements were evaluated using inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Oxford Quality Scale. Those with a score of 3 or more on this Scale were included and their data were extracted and analysed. For evaluation of the risk of infection the absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and 95% CI were calculated. For evaluation of the risk of an adverse effect the absolute risk increase, number needed to harm, and 95% CI were calculated using the Risk Reduction Calculator. Each meta-analysis was made with the help of the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model, and estimates of risk (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using the Review Manager 5.3, from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk was assumed when the lower limit of the 95% CI was greater than 1. Probabilities of less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. The results showed that there was no reduction in the risk of infection when amoxicillin was given before or after operation compared with an untreated group or placebo. In conclusion, this study suggests that amoxicillin given prophylactically or postoperatively does not reduce the risk of infection in healthy patients having their third molars extracted. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated risk assessment and screening analysis of drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system.

PubMed

Sun, F; Chen, J; Tong, Q; Zeng, S

2007-01-01

Management of drinking water safety is changing towards an integrated risk assessment and risk management approach that includes all processes in a water supply system from catchment to consumers. However, given the large number of water supply systems in China and the cost of implementing such a risk assessment procedure, there is a necessity to first conduct a strategic screening analysis at a national level. An integrated methodology of risk assessment and screening analysis is thus proposed to evaluate drinking water safety of a conventional water supply system. The violation probability, indicating drinking water safety, is estimated at different locations of a water supply system in terms of permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, turbidity, residual chlorine and trihalomethanes. Critical parameters with respect to drinking water safety are then identified, based on which an index system is developed to prioritize conventional water supply systems in implementing a detailed risk assessment procedure. The evaluation results are represented as graphic check matrices for the concerned hazards in drinking water, from which the vulnerability of a conventional water supply system is characterized.

Reproductive disorders among cosmetologists and hairdressers: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Dohyung; Kang, Mo-Yeol; Choi, Sungyeul; Park, Jaechan; Lee, Hye-Ji; Kim, Eun-A

2016-07-01

Occupational risks for reproductive disorders among hairdressers and cosmetologists have been examined in numerous epidemiological studies, although the results of those studies have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of published studies to evaluate the risks of reproductive disorders among cosmetologists and hairdressers. We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases, as well as the reference lists of relevant publications, to identify studies for our analysis. After careful consideration, 19 eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis. We also performed systematic evaluations of publication bias, heterogeneity, and publication quality. Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) were weighted using the inverse of their variance to calculate fixed- and random-effect pooled estimates. The meta-analysis revealed a significantly increased risk of infertility (OR 1.15, 95 % CI 1.03-1.28), fetal death (OR 1.14, 95 % CI 1.04-1.24), and preterm delivery (OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.00-1.07) among hairdressers and cosmetologists. These findings indicate that hairdressers and cosmetologists have a higher risk of reproductive disorders, compared to the general population.

LNG risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, P.

1980-12-01

A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

PubMed

Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

2017-06-01

For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs. Preventing Substance Abuse: Major Findings from the National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs. Monograph Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Herman, Jack

This multiple-site study assessed 48 prevention programs for high-risk youth funded by the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention, identifying program characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes. Data analysis indicated that substance abuse programs reduced rates of substance use, and the positive effects of program…

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix C - sequence quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix C generally describes the methods used to estimate accident sequence frequency values. Information is presented concerning the approach, example collection, failure data, candidate dominant sequences, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Method of Evaluating the Life Cycle Cost of Small Earth Dams Considering the Risk of Heavy Rainfall and Selection Method of the Optimum Countermeasure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Toshikazu; Mohri, Yoshiyuki; Matsushima, Kenichi; Ariyoshi, Mitsuru

In recent years the increase in the number of heavy rainfall occurrences such as through unpredictable cloudbursts have resulted in the safety of the embankments of small earth dams needing to be improved. However, the severe financial condition of the government and local autonomous bodies necessitate the cost of improving them to be reduced. This study concerns the development of a method of evaluating the life cycle cost of small earth dams considered to pose a risk and in order to improve the safety of the downstream areas of small earth dams at minimal cost. Use of a safety evaluation method that is based on a combination of runoff analysis, saturated and unsaturated seepage analysis, and slope stability analysis enables the probability of a dam breach and its life cycle cost with the risk of heavy rainfall taken into account to be calculated. Moreover, use of the life cycle cost evaluation method will lead to the development of a technique for selecting the method of the optimal improvement or countermeasures against heavy rainfall.

Seismic risk assessment of Trani's Cathedral bell tower in Apulia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaferio, Mariella; Foti, Dora

2017-09-01

The present paper deals with the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of slender historical buildings; these structures, in fact, may manifest a high risk with respect to seismic actions as usually they have been designed to resist to gravitational loads only, and are characterized by a high flexibility. To evaluate this behavior, the bell tower of the Trani's Cathedral is investigated. The tower is 57 m tall and is characterized by an unusual building typology, i.e., the walls are composed of a concrete core coupled with external masonry stones. The dynamic parameters and the mechanical properties of the tower have been evaluated on the basis of an extensive experimental campaign that made use of ambient vibration tests and ground penetrating radar tests. Such data have been utilized to calibrate a numerical model of the examined tower. A linear static analysis, a dynamic analysis and a nonlinear static analysis have been carried out on such model to evaluate the displacement capacity of the tower and the seismic risk assessment in accordance with the Italian guidelines.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

2011-09-01

Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases.more » During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening analysis focused primarily on the second component of risk, “consequence”, with focused probability analysis for interactions where data was sufficient for probability modeling. Consequence analysis provides an assessment of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations. Probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors and requires significant data inputs to drive risk models. During FY 2011, two stressor-receptor interactions were examined for the probability of occurrence. The two interactions (spill probability due to an encounter between a surface vessel and an MHK device; and toxicity from anti-biofouling paints on MHK devices) were seen to present relatively low risks to marine and freshwater receptors of greatest concern in siting and permitting MHK devices. A third probability analysis was scoped and initial steps taken to understand the risk of encounter between marine animals and rotating turbine blades. This analysis will be completed in FY 2012.« less

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

Susceptibility of N-acetyltransferase 2 slow acetylators to antituberculosis drug-induced liver injury: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Jing; Xie, Min; Wang, Jianmiao; Xu, Yongjian; Liu, Xiansheng

2015-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the association between N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) gene polymorphisms and the risk of antituberculosis drug-induced liver injury (ATLI). A meta-analysis was performed including 27 studies with 1289 cases and 5462 controls. Odds ratio with 95% CI was used to evaluate the strength of association. Our meta-analysis found that NAT2 slow acetylators were associated with increased risk of ATLI compared with fast and intermediate acetylators when standard dose of isoniazid was administrated (odds ratio: 3.08; 95% CI: 2.29-4.15). Individuals with NAT2 slow acetylators may have increased risk of ATLI when standard dose of isoniazid was used. Detection of NAT2 genotype may benefit to the prevention of ATLI.

Risk profiles for weight gain among postmenopausal women: A classification and regression tree analysis approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Risk factors for obesity and weight gain are typically evaluated individually while "adjusting for" the influence of other confounding factors, and few studies, if any, have created risk profiles by clustering risk factors. We identified subgroups of postmenopausal women homogeneous in their cluster...

SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

PubMed Central

German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

Bridging the Gap between Social Acceptance and Ethical Acceptability.

PubMed

Taebi, Behnam

2017-10-01

New technology brings great benefits, but it can also create new and significant risks. When evaluating those risks in policymaking, there is a tendency to focus on social acceptance. By solely focusing on social acceptance, we could, however, overlook important ethical aspects of technological risk, particularly when we evaluate technologies with transnational and intergenerational risks. I argue that good governance of risky technology requires analyzing both social acceptance and ethical acceptability. Conceptually, these two notions are mostly complementary. Social acceptance studies are not capable of sufficiently capturing all the morally relevant features of risky technologies; ethical analyses do not typically include stakeholders' opinions, and they therefore lack the relevant empirical input for a thorough ethical evaluation. Only when carried out in conjunction are these two types of analysis relevant to national and international governance of risky technology. I discuss the Rawlsian wide reflective equilibrium as a method for marrying social acceptance and ethical acceptability. Although the rationale of my argument is broadly applicable, I will examine the case of multinational nuclear waste repositories in particular. This example will show how ethical issues may be overlooked if we focus only on social acceptance, and will provide a test case for demonstrating how the wide reflective equilibrium can help to bridge the proverbial acceptance-acceptability gap. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Use of evidential reasoning and AHP to assess regional industrial safety

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhichao; Chen, Tao; Qu, Zhuohua; Ji, Xuewei; Zhou, Yi; Zhang, Hui

2018-01-01

China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others. PMID:29795593

Use of evidential reasoning and AHP to assess regional industrial safety.

PubMed

Chen, Zhichao; Chen, Tao; Qu, Zhuohua; Yang, Zaili; Ji, Xuewei; Zhou, Yi; Zhang, Hui

2018-01-01

China's fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others.

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latimer, John A.

2009-01-01

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

Research notes : evaluation of the oregon medically at-risk driver program.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-05-01

Dr. James Strathman, a Portland State University researcher, recently completed an assessment of the safety risk of persons whose licenses were suspended under the Oregon Medically At-Risk Driver program. The results of the analysis suggested modific...

An assessment of national risk: General concepts and overall approach. [carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalelkar, A. S.

1979-01-01

The analysis of risk presented by carbon fiber utilization in commercial aviation is reported. The discussion is presented in three parts: (1) general concepts; (2) overall approach; and (3) risk evaluation and perspective.

Refractive Errors and Concomitant Strabismus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tang, Shu Min; Chan, Rachel Y T; Bin Lin, Shi; Rong, Shi Song; Lau, Henry H W; Lau, Winnie W Y; Yip, Wilson W K; Chen, Li Jia; Ko, Simon T C; Yam, Jason C S

2016-10-12

This systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the risk of development of concomitant strabismus due to refractive errors. Eligible studies published from 1946 to April 1, 2016 were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE that evaluated any kinds of refractive errors (myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism and anisometropia) as an independent factor for concomitant exotropia and concomitant esotropia. Totally 5065 published records were retrieved for screening, 157 of them eligible for detailed evaluation. Finally 7 population-based studies involving 23,541 study subjects met our criteria for meta-analysis. The combined OR showed that myopia was a risk factor for exotropia (OR: 5.23, P = 0.0001). We found hyperopia had a dose-related effect for esotropia (OR for a spherical equivalent [SE] of 2-3 diopters [D]: 10.16, P = 0.01; OR for an SE of 3-4D: 17.83, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of 4-5D: 41.01, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of ≥5D: 162.68, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis indicated our results were robust. Results of this study confirmed myopia as a risk for concomitant exotropia and identified a dose-related effect for hyperopia as a risk of concomitant esotropia.

Refractive Errors and Concomitant Strabismus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Tang, Shu Min; Chan, Rachel Y. T.; Bin Lin, Shi; Rong, Shi Song; Lau, Henry H. W.; Lau, Winnie W. Y.; Yip, Wilson W. K.; Chen, Li Jia; Ko, Simon T. C.; Yam, Jason C. S.

2016-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the risk of development of concomitant strabismus due to refractive errors. Eligible studies published from 1946 to April 1, 2016 were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE that evaluated any kinds of refractive errors (myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism and anisometropia) as an independent factor for concomitant exotropia and concomitant esotropia. Totally 5065 published records were retrieved for screening, 157 of them eligible for detailed evaluation. Finally 7 population-based studies involving 23,541 study subjects met our criteria for meta-analysis. The combined OR showed that myopia was a risk factor for exotropia (OR: 5.23, P = 0.0001). We found hyperopia had a dose-related effect for esotropia (OR for a spherical equivalent [SE] of 2–3 diopters [D]: 10.16, P = 0.01; OR for an SE of 3-4D: 17.83, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of 4-5D: 41.01, P < 0.0001; OR for an SE of ≥5D: 162.68, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis indicated our results were robust. Results of this study confirmed myopia as a risk for concomitant exotropia and identified a dose-related effect for hyperopia as a risk of concomitant esotropia. PMID:27731389

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohnloser, S. H.; Klingenheben, T.; Li, Y. G.; Zabel, M.; Peetermans, J.; Cohen, R. J.

1998-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

[Report quality evaluation of systematic review or Meta-analysis published in China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica].

PubMed

Zhang, Yan; Yu, Dan-Dan; Cui, De-Hua; Liao, Xing; Guo, Hua

2018-03-01

To evaluate the report quality of intervention-related systematic reviews or Meta-analysis published in China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica, we searched CNKI and China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica webpages to collect intervention-related systematic reviews or Meta-analysis since the first issue of the magazine. A total of 40 systematic reviews or Meta-analysis reports were included, including one network Meta-analysis. According to the PRISMA statement published in 2009, the report quality of the systematic reviews or Meta-analysis was evaluated. According to the results, 3 had the low quality, 30 had the medium quality, and 7 had the high quality. The average score for all of items was 30 points (21-30.5 points for the medium quality). The 17 high-quality (31-40 points) report items were title, rationale, objectives, information sources, study selection, data collection process, data items, risk of bias in individual studies, summary measures, risk of bias across studies, study selection, study characteristics, risk of bias within studies, results of individual studies, synthesis of results, risk of bias across studies and funding; the 4 medium-quality (21-30.5 points) reporting items were eligibility criteria, search, limitations and conclusions; and the 6 low-quality (<=20.5 points) reporting items were structured summary, protocol and registration, synthesis of results, additional analysis (No.16), additional analysis (No.23) and summary of evidence. Through the analysis, it is found that the report quality of intervention-related systematic reviews or Meta-analysis published in China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica is medium, and it is necessary to improve the quality standard of the report. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

A review of risk management process in construction projects of developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahamid, R. A.; Doh, S. I.

2017-11-01

In the construction industry, risk management concept is a less popular technique. There are three main stages in the systematic approach to risk management in construction industry. These stages include: a) risk response; b) risk analysis and evaluation; and c) risk identification. The high risk related to construction business affects each of its participants; while operational analysis and management of construction related risks remain an enormous task to practitioners of the industry. This paper tends towards reviewing the existing literature on construction project risk managements in developing countries specifically on risk management process. The literature lacks ample risk management process approach capable of capturing risk impact on diverse project objectives. This literature review aims at discovering the frequently used techniques in risk identification and analysis. It also attempts to identify response to clarifying the different classifications of risk sources in the existing literature of developing countries, and to identify the future research directions on project risks in the area of construction in developing countries.

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

Presenting health risk information in different formats: the effect on participants' cognitive and emotional evaluation and decisions.

PubMed

Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij

2008-12-01

Effective communication of health risks plays an important role in enabling patients to make adequate decisions. There is little--though contradictory--evidence to indicate which format is most effective for communicating risks, and which risk format is preferred by counselees. In an experiment, subjects were presented health scenarios and risk information in different formats (percentages, frequencies, and population figures) and asked to evaluate the risks and make a decision based on these. Different risk formats had different effects on respondents' evaluation of the health risks presented. Contrary to our expectation, population figures were not evaluated as being the easiest format for all decision problems. Population figures were shown to have the biggest affective impact, and risks presented as population figures were also evaluated as significantly greater than the risks presented in other formats. The format of the presented risks influenced their decision in only one out of four decision-making situations, although in a second situation there was a similar trend. This study suggests that the risk format plays a role in the decision-making process, although it remains unclear which format is the most effective in terms of understanding. More experimental studies based on a theoretical analysis of the factors that promote effective risk communication are needed in the general population as well as in clinical settings with patients actually experiencing the risks and making the decisions.

An evaluation of Computational Fluid dynamics model for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Francesco, Silvia; Biscarini, Chiara; Montesarchio, Valeria

2014-05-01

This work presents an analysis of the hydrological-hydraulic engineering requisites for Risk evaluation and efficient flood damage reduction plans. Most of the research efforts have been dedicated to the scientific and technical aspects of risk assessment, providing estimates of possible alternatives and of the risk associated. In the decision making process for mitigation plan, the contribute of scientist is crucial, due to the fact that Risk-Damage analysis is based on evaluation of flow field ,of Hydraulic Risk and on economical and societal considerations. The present paper will focus on the first part of process, the mathematical modelling of flood events which is the base for all further considerations. The evaluation of potential catastrophic damage consequent to a flood event and in particular to dam failure requires modelling of the flood with sufficient detail so to capture the spatial and temporal evolutions of the event, as well of the velocity field. Thus, the selection of an appropriate mathematical model to correctly simulate flood routing is an essential step. In this work we present the application of two 3D Computational fluid dynamics models to a synthetic and real case study in order to evaluate the correct evolution of flow field and the associated flood Risk . The first model is based on a opensource CFD platform called openFoam. Water flow is schematized with a classical continuum approach based on Navier-Stokes equation coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) method to take in account the multiphase character of river bottom-water- air systems. The second model instead is based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, an innovative numerical fluid dynamics scheme based on Boltzmann's kinetic equation that represents the flow dynamics at the macroscopic level by incorporating a microscopic kinetic approach. Fluid is seen as composed by particles that can move and collide among them. Simulation results from both models are promising and congruent to experimental results available in literature, thought the LBM model requires less computational effort respect to the NS one.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

Combining aneuploidy and dysplasia for colitis' cancer risk assessment outperforms current surveillance efficiency: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meyer, Rüdiger; Freitag-Wolf, Sandra; Blindow, Silke; Büning, Jürgen; Habermann, Jens K

2017-02-01

Cancer risk assessment for ulcerative colitis patients by evaluating histological changes through colonoscopy surveillance is still challenging. Thus, additional parameters of high prognostic impact for the development of colitis-associated carcinoma are necessary. This meta-analysis was conducted to clarify the value of aneuploidy as predictor for individual cancer risk compared with current surveillance parameters. A systematic web-based search identified studies published in English that addressed the relevance of the ploidy status for individual cancer risk during surveillance in comparison to neoplastic mucosal changes. The resulting data were included into a meta-analysis, and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for aneuploidy or dysplasia or aneuploidy plus dysplasia. Twelve studies addressing the relevance of aneuploidy compared to dyplasia were comprehensively evaluated and further used for meta-analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that aneuploidy (OR 5.31 [95 % CI 2.03, 13.93]) is an equally effective parameter for cancer risk assessment in ulcerative colitis patients as dysplasia (OR 4.93 [1.61, 15.11]). Strikingly, the combined assessment of dysplasia and aneuploidy is superior compared to applying each parameter alone (OR 8.99 [3.08, 26.26]). This meta-analysis reveals that aneuploidy is an equally effective parameter for individual cancer risk assessment in ulcerative colitis as the detection of dysplasia. More important, the combined assessment of dysplasia and aneuploidy outperforms the use of each parameter alone. We suggest image cytometry for ploidy assessment to become an additional feature of consensus criteria to individually assess cancer risk in UC.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

[Risk management--a new aspect of quality assessment in intensive care medicine: first results of an analysis of the DIVI's interdisciplinary quality assessment research group].

PubMed

Stiletto, R; Röthke, M; Schäfer, E; Lefering, R; Waydhas, Ch

2006-10-01

Patient security has become one of the major aspects of clinical management in recent years. The crucial point in research was focused on malpractice. In contradiction to the economic process in non medical fields, the analysis of errors during the in-patient treatment time was neglected. Patient risk management can be defined as a structured procedure in a clinical unit with the aim to reduce harmful events. A risk point model was created based on a Delphi process and founded on the DIVI data register. The risk point model was evaluated in clinically working ICU departments participating in the register data base. The results of the risk point evaluation will be integrated in the next data base update. This might be a step to improve the reliability of the register to measure quality assessment in the ICU.

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

The relationship between the effect of pravastatin and risk factors for coronary heart disease in Japanese patients with hypercholesterolemia.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Mizuno, Kyoichi; Nakaya, Noriaki; Ohashi, Yasuo; Tajima, Naoko; Kushiro, Toshio; Teramoto, Tamio; Uchiyama, Shinichiro; Nakamura, Haruo

2008-10-01

Several epidemiologic studies in Japan have shown the risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. The present analysis determined the risk factors for CHD in the MEGA Study, a large primary prevention trial with pravastatin in Japanese with hypercholesterolemia. The relationship between each baseline characteristic and the risk of CHD for the 5-year study period were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model. The multivariable predictors of CHD were sex, age, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension (HT), and history of smoking. Serum total and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were not independent risk factors for CHD in the current analysis. In addition, the effect of pravastatin was evaluated by subgroups in each risk factor using the interaction in a Cox model. Diet plus pravastatin treatment reduced CHD risk by 14-43% compared with diet alone, regardless of the presence or absence of risk factors. The risk factors for CHD were sex, age, DM, HT, smoking, and low HDL-C in the MEGA Study. The pravastatin treatment was effective for reducing the risk of CHD, regardless of the presence of risk factors.

Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace

PubMed Central

Syazwan, AI; Rafee, B Mohd; Juahir, Hafizan; Azman, AZF; Nizar, AM; Izwyn, Z; Syahidatussyakirah, K; Muhaimin, AA; Yunos, MA Syafiq; Anita, AR; Hanafiah, J Muhamad; Shaharuddin, MS; Ibthisham, A Mohd; Hasmadi, I Mohd; Azhar, MN Mohamad; Azizan, HS; Zulfadhli, I; Othman, J; Rozalini, M; Kamarul, FT

2012-01-01

Purpose To analyze and characterize a multidisciplinary, integrated indoor air quality checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants in a nonindustrial workplace setting. Design A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia) and Universiti Putra Malaysia. Method A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach. Result Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint), which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort. Conclusion This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ investigations and complaints procedures. PMID:23055779

Analysis of indoor air pollutants checklist using environmetric technique for health risk assessment of sick building complaint in nonindustrial workplace.

PubMed

Syazwan, Ai; Rafee, B Mohd; Juahir, Hafizan; Azman, Azf; Nizar, Am; Izwyn, Z; Syahidatussyakirah, K; Muhaimin, Aa; Yunos, Ma Syafiq; Anita, Ar; Hanafiah, J Muhamad; Shaharuddin, Ms; Ibthisham, A Mohd; Hasmadi, I Mohd; Azhar, Mn Mohamad; Azizan, Hs; Zulfadhli, I; Othman, J; Rozalini, M; Kamarul, Ft

2012-01-01

To analyze and characterize a multidisciplinary, integrated indoor air quality checklist for evaluating the health risk of building occupants in a nonindustrial workplace setting. A cross-sectional study based on a participatory occupational health program conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (Malaysia) and Universiti Putra Malaysia. A modified version of the indoor environmental checklist published by the Department of Occupational Health and Safety, based on the literature and discussion with occupational health and safety professionals, was used in the evaluation process. Summated scores were given according to the cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the characterization of risk. Environmetric techniques was used to classify the risk of variables in the checklist. Identification of the possible source of item pollutants was also evaluated from a semiquantitative approach. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis resulted in the grouping of factorial components into three clusters (high complaint, moderate-high complaint, moderate complaint), which were further analyzed by discriminant analysis. From this, 15 major variables that influence indoor air quality were determined. Principal component analysis of each cluster revealed that the main factors influencing the high complaint group were fungal-related problems, chemical indoor dispersion, detergent, renovation, thermal comfort, and location of fresh air intake. The moderate-high complaint group showed significant high loading on ventilation, air filters, and smoking-related activities. The moderate complaint group showed high loading on dampness, odor, and thermal comfort. This semiquantitative assessment, which graded risk from low to high based on the intensity of the problem, shows promising and reliable results. It should be used as an important tool in the preliminary assessment of indoor air quality and as a categorizing method for further IAQ investigations and complaints procedures.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of non-medical prescribing: A systematic review of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Marriott, John; Graham-Clarke, Emma; Shirley, Debra; Rushton, Alison

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of non-medical prescribing (NMP). Design Systematic review. Two reviewers independently completed searches, eligibility assessment and assessment of risk of bias. Data sources Pre-defined search terms/combinations were utilised to search electronic databases. In addition, hand searches of reference lists, key journals and grey literature were employed alongside consultation with authors/experts. Eligibility criteria for included studies Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating clinical or cost-effectiveness of NMP. Measurements reported on one or more outcome(s) of: pain, function, disability, health, social impact, patient-safety, costs-analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), patient satisfaction, clinician perception of clinical and functional outcomes. Results Three RCTs from two countries were included (n = 932 participants) across primary and tertiary care settings. One RCT was assessed as low risk of bias, one as high risk of bias and one as unclear risk of bias. All RCTs evaluated clinical effectiveness with one also evaluating cost-effectiveness. Clinical effectiveness was evaluated using a range of safety and patient-reported outcome measures. Participants demonstrated significant improvement in outcomes when receiving NMP compared to treatment as usual (TAU) in all RCTs. An associated cost analysis showed NMP to be more expensive than TAU (regression coefficient p = 0.0000), however experimental groups generated increased QALYs compared to TAU. Conclusion Limited evidence with overall unclear risk of bias exists evaluating clinical and cost-effectiveness of NMP across all professions and clinical settings. GRADE assessment revealed moderate quality evidence. Evidence suggests that NMP is safe and can provide beneficial clinical outcomes. Benefits to the health economy remain unclear, with the cost-effectiveness of NMP assessed by a single pilot RCT of low risk of bias. Adequately powered low risk of bias RCTs evaluating clinical and cost effectiveness are required to evaluate NMP across clinical specialities, professions and settings. Registration PROSPERO (CRD42015017212). PMID:29509763

Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

PubMed

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely monitored by nurses to prevent falling during hospitalisations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

2015-05-01

Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

A concept analysis of forensic risk.

PubMed

Kettles, A M

2004-08-01

Forensic risk is a term used in relation to many forms of clinical practice, such as assessment, intervention and management. Rarely is the term defined in the literature and as a concept it is multifaceted. Concept analysis is a method for exploring and evaluating the meaning of words. It gives precise definitions, both theoretical and operational, for use in theory, clinical practice and research. A concept analysis provides a logical basis for defining terms through providing defining attributes, case examples (model, contrary, borderline, related), antecedents and consequences and the implications for nursing. Concept analysis helps us to refine and define a concept that derives from practice, research or theory. This paper will use the strategy of concept analysis to find a working definition for the concept of forensic risk. In conclusion, the historical background and literature are reviewed using concept analysis to bring the term into focus and to define it more clearly. Forensic risk is found to derive both from forensic practice and from risk theory. A proposed definition of forensic risk is given.

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-10-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs,more » or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years.« less

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor A.; Munoz, Cesar A.

2007-01-01

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of Urban Road System in Tianjin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. Q.; Wu, X.

In recent years, with the development of economy, the road construction of our country has entered into a period of rapid growth. The road transportation network has been expanding and the risk of disasters is increasing. In this paper we study the vulnerability of urban road system in Tianjin. After analyzed many risk factors of the urban road system security, including road construction, road traffic and the natural environment, we proposed an evaluation index of vulnerability of urban road system and established the corresponding evaluation index system. Based on the results of analysis and comprehensive evaluation, appropriate improvement measures and suggestions which may reduce the vulnerability of the road system and improve the safety and reliability of the road system are proposed.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

78 FR 63479 - Meta-Analyses of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials (RCTs) for the Evaluation of Risk To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-24

... methodological issues that arise in the use of meta-analyses to evaluate safety risks, followed by a discussion... design, conduct and use of meta-analysis. Although many external stakeholders conduct meta-analyses, FDA... meeting. FDA expects that this meeting will build upon prior stakeholder feedback on the design, conduct...

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System

EPA Science Inventory

The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemi...

Infection, Alveolar Osteitis, and Adverse Effects Using Metronidazole in Healthy Patients Undergoing Third Molar Surgery: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Isiordia-Espinoza, Mario Alberto; Aragon-Martinez, Othoniel H; Bollogna-Molina, Ronell E; Alonso-Castro, Ángel J

2018-06-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the risk of surgical infection, alveolar osteitis, and adverse effects using systemic metronidazole in comparison with placebo in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery. The eligible reports were identified from diverse science sources. Clinical trials meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria and an acceptable Oxford Quality Score were included in this study. The evaluation of risk was done using the Risk Reduction Calculator and Review Manager 5.3., from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk reduction was assumed when the upper limit of the 95% confidence intervals was <1 and the lower limit did not cross zero (negative number) alongside a p value of <0.05 for the overall test. Data of 667 patients from five clinical trials were used for the assessment of risk. Our analysis showed no reduction of the risk of infection or dry socket in patients receiving metronidazole compared to whom took placebo. Meanwhile, the adverse effects did not exhibit a difference between the studied groups. The routine use of systemic metronidazole to prevent surgical site infection and/or dry socket in healthy patients undergoing third molar surgery is not recommended.

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaojing; Liu, Lingli; Fu, Youyun; Gao, Jing; He, Yunyun; Wu, Yang; Lian, Xuemei

2018-02-08

Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43-2.03). However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94-1.25). Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

PROOF OF CONCEPT FOR A HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD FOR HEURISTIC USABILITY EVALUATION OF SOFTWARE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman; Jeffrey C. Joe

2005-09-01

An ongoing issue within human-computer interaction (HCI) is the need for simplified or “discount” methods. The current economic slowdown has necessitated innovative methods that are results driven and cost effective. The myriad methods of design and usability are currently being cost-justified, and new techniques are actively being explored that meet current budgets and needs. Recent efforts in human reliability analysis (HRA) are highlighted by the ten-year development of the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. The SPAR-H method has been used primarily for determining humancentered risk at nuclear power plants. The SPAR-H method, however, shares task analysis underpinnings withmore » HCI. Despite this methodological overlap, there is currently no HRA approach deployed in heuristic usability evaluation. This paper presents an extension of the existing SPAR-H method to be used as part of heuristic usability evaluation in HCI.« less

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

The Effect of Vitamin A on Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xinge; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Yueqiao; Yan, Hanyi; Wu, Yingru; Tan, Anran; Fu, Jialin; Shen, Ziqiong; Qin, Guiyu; Li, Rui; Chen, Guoxun

2017-01-01

This meta-analysis evaluated the influence of dietary intake and blood level of vitamin A (total vitamin A, retinol or β-carotene) on total and hip fracture risk. Cohort studies published before July 2017 were selected through English-language literature searches in several databases. Relative risk (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to evaluate the risk. Heterogeneity was checked by Chi-square and I2 test. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were also performed. For the association between retinol intake and total fracture risk, we performed subgroup analysis by sex, region, case ascertainment, education level, age at menopause and vitamin D intake. R software was used to complete all statistical analyses. A total of 319,077 participants over the age of 20 years were included. Higher dietary intake of retinol and total vitamin A may slightly decrease total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 0.95 (0.91, 1.00) and 0.94 (0.88, 0.99), respectively), and increase hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.40 (1.02, 1.91) and 1.29 (1.06, 1.57), respectively). Lower blood level of retinol may slightly increase total fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.11 (0.94, 1.30)) and hip fracture risk (RR with 95% CI: 1.27 (1.05, 1.53)). In addition, higher β-carotene intake was weakly associated with the increased risk of total fracture (RR with 95% CI: 1.07 (0.97, 1.17)). Our data suggest that vitamin A intake and level may differentially influence the risks of total and hip fractures. Clinical trials are warranted to confirm these results and assess the clinical applicability. PMID:28891953

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Incorporating concepts of inequality and inequity into health benefits analysis

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Chemerynski, Susan M; Tuchmann, Jessica L

2006-01-01

Background Although environmental policy decisions are often based in part on both risk assessment information and environmental justice concerns, formalized approaches for addressing inequality or inequity when estimating the health benefits of pollution control have been lacking. Inequality indicators that fulfill basic axioms and agree with relevant definitions and concepts in health benefits analysis and environmental justice analysis can allow for quantitative examination of efficiency-equality tradeoffs in pollution control policies. Methods To develop appropriate inequality indicators for health benefits analysis, we provide relevant definitions from the fields of risk assessment and environmental justice and consider the implications. We evaluate axioms proposed in past studies of inequality indicators and develop additional axioms relevant to this context. We survey the literature on previous applications of inequality indicators and evaluate five candidate indicators in reference to our proposed axioms. We present an illustrative pollution control example to determine whether our selected indicators provide interpretable information. Results and Conclusions We conclude that an inequality indicator for health benefits analysis should not decrease when risk is transferred from a low-risk to high-risk person, and that it should decrease when risk is transferred from a high-risk to low-risk person (Pigou-Dalton transfer principle), and that it should be able to have total inequality divided into its constituent parts (subgroup decomposability). We additionally propose that an ideal indicator should avoid value judgments about the relative importance of transfers at different percentiles of the risk distribution, incorporate health risk with evidence about differential susceptibility, include baseline distributions of risk, use appropriate geographic resolution and scope, and consider multiple competing policy alternatives. Given these criteria, we select the Atkinson index as the single indicator most appropriate for health benefits analysis, with other indicators useful for sensitivity analysis. Our illustrative pollution control example demonstrates how these indices can help a policy maker determine control strategies that are dominated from an efficiency and equality standpoint, those that are dominated for some but not all societal viewpoints on inequality averseness, and those that are on the optimal efficiency-equality frontier, allowing for more informed pollution control policies. PMID:16569243

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new look at the International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant therapy (IDEA) classification-Defining novel predictive and prognostic markers in stage III colon cancer.

PubMed

Margalit, Ofer; Mamtani, Ronac; Yang, Yu-Xiao; Reiss, Kim A; Golan, Talia; Halpern, Naama; Aderka, Dan; Giantonio, Bruce; Shacham-Shmueli, Einat; Boursi, Ben

2018-04-23

The International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant therapy (IDEA) pooled analysis compared 3 to 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer. The overarching goal was to reduce chemotherapy-related toxicity, mainly oxaliplatin-induced neuropathy. Patients were classified into low-risk and high-risk groups, suggesting that low-risk patients may be offered only 3 months of treatment. We aimed to evaluate the benefit of monotherapy versus doublet chemotherapy in low and high IDEA risk groups. Using the National Cancer Database (2004-2014), we identified 56,728 low-risk and 47,557 high-risk individuals with stage III colon cancer, according to the IDEA classification. We used multivariate Cox regression to evaluate the magnitude of survival differences between IDEA risk groups, according to treatment intensity (doublet versus monotherapy). In a secondary analysis, we examined the prognostic and predictive value of subgroups of age, tumour sidedness and lymph node ratio (LNR). Low and high IDEA risk groups derived similar benefit from doublet adjuvant chemotherapy as compared with monotherapy, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-0.86) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.83), respectively. The only subpopulations that did not benefit from doublet chemotherapy were low-risk patients older than 72 years (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.90-1.01) and high-risk patients older than 85 years (HR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.77-1.05). LNR and tumour sidedness were shown as additional prognostic, but not predictive, factors within the IDEA risk groups. IDEA risk classification per se does not predict for treatment benefit from doublet chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer. However, omission of oxaliplatin can be considered in IDEA low-risk patients older than 72 years. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of Department of Energy Cost Proposal Process and Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-11

processes to mitigate and manage risk , rather than derive upfront assessment and quantification of proposal risk (DoE, 2008a). The proposal...2. GM 2- Enhance the Federal Contract and Project Management Workforce Substantially Complete 3. GM 3 - Improve Project Risk Assessment ...proposal, contract proposal evaluation, risk , cost analysis = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v - ii

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Risk assessment of hazardous release in air due to the chemical production of "P. Karaminchev" company in the town of Rousse.

PubMed

Diankova, M

1998-09-01

A health risk evaluation of the lifetime population risk has been made, by using the US EPA's method of risk assessment. Several main steps have been conducted: --a hazard identification, by means of emission analysis and mathematical modeling of air concentration dispersion; a dose-response evaluation and exposure assessment, and finally--a risk characterization. The health risk evaluation was conducted, using lifetime reference concentrations and doses. As risk descriptors were applied: --the individual exposure coefficient (IEC), the hazard quotient (HQ) and the margin of exposure (MOE)--for system toxicants, and the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR)--for carcinogens. The method that was used provides an upperbound estimate, including all possible exposures. The results showed, that the emissions of hydrogen chloride, phthalates (DOF), nitrogen oxides and most of the organic solvents, released from this chemical plant, are not a source of lifetime chronic health risk for the population of any of the six evaluated residential areas of Rousse. The rest of the hazardous emissions cause a slightly increased lifetime health risk, which is entirely in the so called 'controlled risk zone' the risk descriptors vary from 1.00 to 5.00. A number of actions have been prescribed to the plant's government, most of which were realized in the short term.

The neural bases underlying social risk perception in purchase decisions.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yomogida, Yukihito; Takeuchi, Hikaru; Akimoto, Yoritaka; Shibuya, Satoru; Kawashima, Ryuta

2014-05-01

Social considerations significantly influence daily purchase decisions, and the perception of social risk (i.e., the anticipated disapproval of others) is crucial in dissuading consumers from making purchases. However, the neural basis for consumers' perception of social risk remains undiscovered, and this novel study clarifies the relevant neural processes. A total of 26 volunteers were scanned while they evaluated purchase intention of products (purchase intention task) and their anticipation of others' disapproval for possessing a product (social risk task), using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data from the purchase intention task was used to identify the brain region associated with perception of social risk during purchase decision making by using subjective social risk ratings for a parametric modulation analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to explore if there was a difference between participants' purchase decisions and their explicit evaluations of social risk, with reference to the neural activity associated with social risk perception. For this, subjective social risk ratings were used for a parametric modulation analysis on fMRI data from the social risk task. Analysis of the purchase intention task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the anterior insula, an area of the brain that is known as part of the emotion-related network. Analysis of the social risk task revealed a significant positive correlation between ratings of social risk and activity in the temporal parietal junction and the medial prefrontal cortex, which are known as theory-of-mind regions. Our results suggest that the anterior insula processes consumers' social risk implicitly to prompt consumers not to buy socially unacceptable products, whereas ToM-related regions process such risk explicitly in considering the anticipated disapproval of others. These findings may prove helpful in understanding the mental processes involved in purchase decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Economic effects of integrated RIS-PACS solution in the university environment].

PubMed

Kröger, M; Nissen-Meyer, S; Wetekam, V; Reiser, M

1999-04-01

The goal of the current article is to demonstrate how qualitative and monetary effects resulting from an integrated RIS/PACS installation can be evaluated. First of all, the system concept of a RIS/PACS solution for a university hospital is defined and described. Based on this example, a generic method for the evaluation of qualitative and monetary effects as well as associated risks is depicted and demonstrated. To this end, qualitative analyses, investment calculations and risk analysis are employed. The sample analysis of a RIS/PACS solution specially designed for a university hospital demonstrates positive qualitative and monetary effects of the system. Under ideal conditions the payoff time of the investments is reached after 4 years of an assumed 8 years effective life of the system. Furthermore, under conservative assumptions, the risk analysis shows a probability of 0% for realising a negative net present value at the end of the payoff time period. It should be pointed out that the positive result of this sample analysis will not necessarily apply to other clinics or hospitals. However, the same methods may be used for the individual evaluation of the qualitative and monetary effects of a RIS/PACS installation in any clinic.

Evaluation of a Real-Time Monitoring System for River Quality-A Trade-off between Risk Attitudes, Costs, and Uncertainly.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varis, Olli; And Others

1993-01-01

Presents one approach to handling the trade-off between reducing uncertainty in environmental assessment and management and additional expenses. Uses the approach in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. Analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic…

Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

73 6.10. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 1 Mitigation of...6.11. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 3 Mitigation of the Upgrade Alternative...courses of action, or risk- mitigation behaviors, which take place in the event that the technology is not developed by the mile- stone date (e.g

Multilevel Analysis of Multiple-Baseline Data Evaluating Precision Teaching as an Intervention for Improving Fluency in Foundational Reading Skills for at Risk Readers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brosnan, Julie; Moeyaert, Mariola; Brooks Newsome, Kendra; Healy, Olive; Heyvaert, Mieke; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2018-01-01

In this article, multiple-baseline across participants designs were used to evaluate the impact of a precision teaching (PT) program, within a Tier 2 Response to Intervention framework, targeting fluency in foundational reading skills with at risk kindergarten readers. Thirteen multiple-baseline design experiments that included participation from…

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Guidelines for developing NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk management plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, F. G.

1983-01-01

This report presents guidance to NASA Computer security officials for developing ADP security risk management plans. The six components of the risk management process are identified and discussed. Guidance is presented on how to manage security risks that have been identified during a risk analysis performed at a data processing facility or during the security evaluation of an application system.

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1981-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis techniques, i.e., event tree and fault tree analysis, were utilized to provide a risk assessment of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1. Browns Ferry 1 is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR 4 product line with a Mark 1 (drywell and torus) containment. Within the guidelines of the IREP Procedure and Schedule Guide, dominant accident sequences that contribute to public health and safety risks were identified and grouped according to release categories.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Which risk models perform best in selecting ever-smokers for lung cancer screening?

Cancer.gov

A new analysis by scientists at NCI evaluates nine different individualized lung cancer risk prediction models based on their selections of ever-smokers for computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening.

THE ROLE OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS IN HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will cover the basic methodologies used for assessing human exposures to environmental pollutants, and some of the scientific challenges involved in conducting exposure and risk assessments in support of regulatory evaluations.

Risk Management for Weapon Systems Acquisition: A Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-28

includes the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) for network analysis, the PMRM for quantifying risk , an optimization package for generating...Despite the inclusion of uncertainty in time, PERT can at best be considered as a tool for quantifying risk with regard to the time element only. Moreover

[Theoretical evaluation of the risk of decompression illness during simulated extravehicular activity].

PubMed

Nikolaev, V P

2008-01-01

Theoretical analysis of the risk of decompression illness (DI) during extravehicular activity following the Russian and NASA decompression protocols (D-R and D-US, respectively) was performed. In contrast to the tradition approach to decompression stress evaluation by the factor of tissue supersaturation with nitrogen, our probabilistic theory of decompression safety provides a completely reasoned evaluation and comparison of the levels of hazard of these decompression protocols. According to this theory, the function of cumulative DI risk is equal to the sum of functions of cumulative risk of lesion of all body tissues by gas bubbles and their supersaturation by solute gases. Based on modeling of dynamics of these functions, growth of the DI cumulative risk in the course of D-R and D-US follows essentially similar trajectories within the time-frame of up to 330 minutes. However, further extension of D-US but not D-R raises the risk of DI drastically.

Tea consumption and the risk of biliary tract cancer: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xiong, Jianping; Lin, Jianzhen; Wang, Anqiang; Wang, Yaqin; Zheng, Ying; Sang, Xinting; Xu, Yiyao; Lu, Xin; Zhao, Haitao

2017-06-13

Recent studies have shown that tea consumption is associated with the reduced incidence of some types of cancer, possibly including biliary tract cancer. However, the epidemiological evidences for the association with risk of biliary tract cancer are contradictory. Thus, we performed meta-analysis of published observational studies to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of biliary tract cancer. Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Science published before October 2016. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to evaluate the quality of included studies, and publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots, and Begg's and Egger's tests. This meta-analysis includes eight studies comprising 18 independent reports. The incidence of biliary tract cancer reduced about 34% (significantly) for tea intake group in comparison with never intake group (summary odds ratio [OR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48-0.85). Additionally, an inverse relationship between tea intake and risk of biliary tract cancer was statistically significant in women (OR = 0.65; 95 % CI = 0.47-0.83), but not in men (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.58-1.13). Dose- response analysis indicated that the risk of biliary tract cancer decreased by 4% with each additional cup of tea one day (relative risk [RR] = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-0.98, p = 0.001). In summary, tea intake is associated with decreased risk of biliary tract cancer, especially for women.

Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

2014-01-01

This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

Initial depressive episodes affect the risk of suicide attempts in Korean patients with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Ryu, Vin; Jon, Duk-In; Cho, Hyun Sang; Kim, Se Joo; Lee, Eun; Kim, Eun Joo; Seok, Jeong-Ho

2010-09-01

Suicide is a major concern for increasing mortality in bipolar patients, but risk factors for suicide in bipolar disorder remain complex, including Korean patients. Medical records of bipolar patients were retrospectively reviewed to detect significant clinical characteristics associated with suicide attempts. A total of 579 medical records were retrospectively reviewed. Bipolar patients were divided into two groups with the presence of a history of suicide attempts. We compared demographic characteristics and clinical features between the two groups using an analysis of covariance and chi-square tests. Finally, logistic regression was performed to evaluate significant risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder. The prevalence of suicide attempt was 13.1% in our patient group. The presence of a depressive first episode was significantly different between attempters and nonattempters. Logistic regression analysis revealed that depressive first episodes and bipolar II disorder were significantly associated with suicide attempts in those patients. Clinicians should consider the polarity of the first mood episode when evaluating suicide risk in bipolar patients. This study has some limitations as a retrospective study and further studies with a prospective design are needed to replicate and evaluate risk factors for suicide in patients with bipolar disorder.

An analysis of benefits and risk information on pharmaceutical web sites for the treatment of menopause.

PubMed

Charbonneau, Deborah H

2013-09-01

As the Internet is a source of information for many health consumers, there is a need to evaluate the information about prescription drugs provided on pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites. Using a sample of pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites for the treatment of menopause, the main objective of this study was to evaluate consumer-oriented information about benefits and risks of prescription drugs for the treatment of menopause provided on pharmaceutical web sites. Pharmaceutical manufacturers' web sites for analysis were identified using a list of U.S. FDA-approved hormone therapies for the treatment of menopause. This study revealed substantial gaps in how benefits and risk information were presented on the web sites. Specifically, information about the benefits was prominent while risk information was incomplete and challenging to find. Further, references to the scientific literature to support claims advertised about prescription drug benefits were not provided. Given the lack of scientific evidence to support claims of benefits and limited disclosure about risks, more information is needed for consumers to be able to weigh the benefits and risks of these treatments for menopause. Overall, these findings provide guidance for evaluating drug information provided on pharmaceutical web sites. © 2013 The author. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

Lack of association between NAT2 polymorphism and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

PubMed Central

Tang, Jingyuan; Xu, Lingyan; Xu, Haoxiang; Li, Ran; Han, Peng; Yang, Haiwei

2017-01-01

Previous studies have investigated the association between NAT2 polymorphism and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). However, the findings from these studies remained inconsistent. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to provide a more reliable conclusion about such associations. In the present meta-analysis, 13 independent case-control studies were included with a total of 14,469 PCa patients and 10,689 controls. All relevant studies published were searched in the databates PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science, till March 1st, 2017. We used the pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the strength of the association between NAT2*4 allele and susceptibility to PCa. Subgroup analysis was carried out by ethnicity, source of controls and genotyping method. What's more, we also performed trial sequential analysis (TSA) to reduce the risk of type I error and evaluate whether the evidence of the results was firm. Firstly, our results indicated that NAT2*4 allele was not associated with PCa susceptibility (OR = 1.00, 95% CI= 0.95–1.05; P = 0.100). However, after excluding two studies for its heterogeneity and publication bias, no significant relationship was also detected between NAT2*4 allele and the increased risk of PCa, in fixed-effect model (OR = 0.99, 95% CI= 0.94–1.04; P = 0.451). Meanwhile, no significant increased risk of PCa was found in the subgroup analyses by ethnicity, source of controls and genotyping method. Moreover, TSA demonstrated that such association was confirmed in the present study. Therefore, this meta-analysis suggested that no significant association between NAT2 polymorphism and the risk of PCa was found. PMID:28915684

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Lisa

2014-01-01

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

Wireless Phone Use and Risk of Adult Glioma: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Peng; Hou, Chongxian; Li, Yanwen; Zhou, Dong

2018-04-28

Wireless phone use has been increasing rapidly and is associated with the risk of glioma. Many studies have been conducted on this association without reaching agreement. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the possible association between wireless phone use and risk of adult glioma. Eligible studies were identified by searching PubMed and Embase up to July 2017. Random-effects or fixed-effects model was used to combine the results depending on the heterogeneity of the analysis. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's funnel plot and Egger's regression asymmetry test. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate possible influence of these variables. Ten studies on the association of wireless phone use and risk of glioma were included. The combined odds ratio of adult gliomas associated with ever use of wireless phones was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.16) with high heterogeneity (I 2  = 54.2%, P = 0.013). In subgroup analyses, no significant association was found between tumor location in the temporal lobe and adult glioma risk, with odds ratios of 1.26 (95% CI, 0.87-1.84), 0.93 (95% CI, 0.69-1.24), and 1.61 (95% CI, 0.78-3.33). A significant association with risk of glioma was found in long-term users (≥10 years) with odds ratio of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.05-1.67). Ever use of wireless phones was not significantly associated with risk of adult glioma, but there could be increased risk in long-term users. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Outer continental shelf lease sale 144, Beaufort Sea. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.

1995-08-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf lands in the Beaufort Sea for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 144, Beaufort Sea. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed leasemore » sale.« less

Assessing natural hazards in forestry for risk management: a review

Treesearch

Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Axel Albrecht

2011-01-01

We address the problem of how to integrate risk assessment into forest management and therefore provide a comprehensive review of recent and past literature on risk analysis and modeling and, moreover, an evaluation and summary on these papers. We provide a general scheme on how to integrate concepts of risk into forest management decisions. After an overview of the...

Hazardous Wastes: A Risk Benefit Framework Applied to Cadmium and Asbestos (1977)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study develops a decision framework for evaluating hazardous waste standards in terms of social risks and product benefits. The analysis focuses of cadmium and asbestos as examples of land waste disposal problems.

21 CFR 312.84 - Risk-benefit analysis in review of marketing applications for drugs to treat life-threatening and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... making the final decision on approvability. As part of this evaluation, consistent with the statement of.... (b) In making decisions on whether to grant marketing approval for products that have been the... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk-benefit analysis in review of marketing...

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Information and problem report usage in system saftey engineering division

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrissey, Stephen J.

1990-01-01

Five basic problems or question areas are examined. They are as follows: (1) Evaluate adequacy of current problem/performance data base; (2) Evaluate methods of performing trend analysis; (3) Methods and sources of data for probabilistic risk assessment; and (4) How is risk assessment documentation upgraded and/or updated. The fifth problem was to provide recommendations for each of the above four areas.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

78 FR 45992 - National Science and Technology Council; Notice of Meeting: Open Meeting of the National Science...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

..., and the general public; analysis of the role of comparative risk assessment in these evaluations, including decision analysis tools and gap analysis tools; identification, through case study presentations...

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for osteoporosis or low bone density

PubMed Central

Edwards, D. L.; Saleh, A. A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2015-01-01

Summary We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for DXA-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Commonly evaluated risk instruments showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % at particular thresholds within various populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. Introduction The purpose of the study is to systematically review the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. Multiple literature sources were searched, and data extracted and analyzed from included references. Results One hundred eight references met inclusion criteria. Studies assessed many instruments in 34 countries, most commonly the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) instrument, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), and body weight criteria. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of <1 to identify US postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at the femoral neck provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 89 % (95%CI 82–96 %) and 41 % (95%CI 23–59 %), respectively. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of 3 to identify US men with osteoporosis at the femoral neck, total hip, or lumbar spine provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 88 % (95%CI 79–97 %) and 55 % (95%CI 42–68 %), respectively. Frequently evaluated instruments each had thresholds and populations for which sensitivity for osteoporosis or low bone mass detection approached or exceeded 90 % but always with a trade-off of relatively low specificity. Conclusions Commonly evaluated clinical risk assessment instruments each showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % for identifying individuals with DXA-determined osteoporosis or low BMD at certain thresholds in different populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. PMID:25644147

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.

Applicability of the Common Safety Method for Risk Evaluation and Assessment (CSM-RA) to the Space Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Francisco; Silva, Nuno

2016-08-01

Safety systems require accident avoidance. This is covered by application standards, processes, techniques and tools that support the identification, analysis, elimination or reduction to an acceptable level of system risks and hazards. Ideally, a safety system should be free of hazards. However, both industry and academia have been struggling to ensure appropriate risk and hazard analysis, especially in what concerns completeness of the hazards, formalization, and timely analysis in order to influence the specifications and the implementation. Such analysis is also important when considering a change to an existing system. The Common Safety Method for Risk Evaluation and Assessment (CSM- RA) is a mandatory procedure whenever any significant change is proposed to the railway system in a European Member State. This paper provides insights on the fundamentals of CSM-RA based and complemented with Hazard Analysis. When and how to apply them, and the relation and similarities of these processes with industry standards and the system life cycles is highlighted. Finally, the paper shows how CSM-RA can be the basis of a change management process, guiding the identification and management of the hazards helping ensuring the similar safety level as the initial system. This paper will show how the CSM-RA principles can be used in other domains particularly for space system evolution.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Tanning beds, sunlamps, and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma.

PubMed

Gallagher, Richard P; Spinelli, John J; Lee, Tim K

2005-03-01

A number of studies have been conducted evaluating the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma after exposure to sunlamps and/or sunbeds. The proportion of subjects in the individual studies who have reported exposure has, in general, been modest, and the resulting risk estimates for melanoma have been unstable with wide 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The inconclusive results seen in individual studies have resulted in confusion as to the carcinogenicity of these devices. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of these studies. A review of the literature from Jan 1, 1984 to April 2004 using MEDLINE identified 12 case-control studies and 1 cohort study which quantitatively evaluated the use of sunlamps and/or sunbeds and subsequent melanoma. After applying exclusion/inclusion criteria, 9 case-control and 1 cohort study provided data for the analysis. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs for sunlamp/sunbed use and subsequent melanoma were calculated using a random-effect model. Ten studies provided data for assessment of melanoma risk among subjects who reported "ever" being exposed compared with those "never" exposed. A positive association was found between exposure and risk (summary OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.49). Significant heterogeneity between studies was present. Evaluation of the metrics "first exposure as a young adult" (5 studies) and "longest duration or highest frequency of exposure" (6 studies) also yielded significantly elevated risk estimates (summary OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.32-2.18, and 1.61; 95% CI, 1.21-2.12, respectively, with no heterogeneity in either analysis). Results indicate a significantly increased risk of cutaneous melanoma subsequent to sunbed/sunlamp exposure.

Phrenic nerve injury after radiofrequency ablation of lung tumors: retrospective evaluation of the incidence and risk factors.

PubMed

Matsui, Yusuke; Hiraki, Takao; Gobara, Hideo; Uka, Mayu; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Tada, Akihiro; Toyooka, Shinichi; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mimura, Hidefumi; Kanazawa, Susumu

2012-06-01

To retrospectively investigate the incidence of and risk factors for phrenic nerve injury after radiofrequency (RF) ablation of lung tumors. The study included 814 RF ablation procedures of lung tumors. To evaluate the development of phrenic nerve injury, chest radiographs obtained before and after the procedure were examined. Phrenic nerve injury was assumed to have developed if the diaphragmatic level was elevated after the procedure. To identify risk factors for phrenic nerve injury, multiple variables were compared between cases of phrenic nerve injury and randomly selected controls by using univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis was then performed to identify independent risk factors. Evaluation of phrenic nerve injury from chest radiographs was possible after 786 procedures. Evidence of phrenic nerve injury developed after 10 cases (1.3%). Univariate analysis revealed that larger tumor size (≥ 20 mm; P = .014), proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001), the use of larger electrodes (array diameter or noninsulated tip length ≥ 3 cm; P = .001), and higher maximum power applied during ablation (≥ 100 W; P < .001) were significantly associated with the development of phrenic nerve injury. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001) was a significant independent risk factor. The incidence of phrenic nerve injury after RF ablation was 1.3%. The proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor was an independent risk factor for phrenic nerve injury. Copyright © 2012 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF VADOSE ZONE AND SORUCE MODULES FOR MULTI-MEDIA, MULTI-PATHWAY, AND MULTI-RECEPTOR RISK ASSESSMENT USING LARGE-SOIL-COLUMN EXPERIMENTAL DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a comprehensive environmental exposure and risk analysis software system for agency-wide application using the methodology of a Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model. This sof...

EVALUATION OF VADOSE ZONE AND SOURCE MODELS FOR MULTI-MEDIA, MULTI-PATHWAY, MULTI-RECEPTOR RISK ASSESSMENT USING LARGE SOIL COLUMN EXPERIMENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing a comprehensive environmental exposure and risk analysis software system for agency-wide application using the methodology of a Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) model. This software sys...

An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

2015-11-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.

Individual risk factors for deep infection and compromised fracture healing after intramedullary nailing of tibial shaft fractures: a single centre experience of 480 patients.

PubMed

Metsemakers, W-J; Handojo, K; Reynders, P; Sermon, A; Vanderschot, P; Nijs, S

2015-04-01

Despite modern advances in the treatment of tibial shaft fractures, complications including nonunion, malunion, and infection remain relatively frequent. A better understanding of these injuries and its complications could lead to prevention rather than treatment strategies. A retrospective study was performed to identify risk factors for deep infection and compromised fracture healing after intramedullary nailing (IMN) of tibial shaft fractures. Between January 2000 and January 2012, 480 consecutive patients with 486 tibial shaft fractures were enrolled in the study. Statistical analysis was performed to determine predictors of deep infection and compromised fracture healing. Compromised fracture healing was subdivided in delayed union and nonunion. The following independent variables were selected for analysis: age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification, polytrauma, fracture type, open fractures, Gustilo type, primary external fixation (EF), time to nailing (TTN) and reaming. As primary statistical evaluation we performed a univariate analysis, followed by a multiple logistic regression model. Univariate regression analysis revealed similar risk factors for delayed union and nonunion, including fracture type, open fractures and Gustilo type. Factors affecting the occurrence of deep infection in this model were primary EF, a prolonged TTN, open fractures and Gustilo type. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed polytrauma as the single risk factor for nonunion. With respect to delayed union, no risk factors could be identified. In the same statistical model, deep infection was correlated with primary EF. The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk factors of poor outcome after IMN of tibial shaft fractures. The univariate regression analysis showed that the nature of complications after tibial shaft nailing could be multifactorial. This was not confirmed in a multiple logistic regression model, which only revealed polytrauma and primary EF as risk factors for nonunion and deep infection, respectively. Future strategies should focus on prevention in high-risk populations such as polytrauma patients treated with EF. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Construction risk assessment of deep foundation pit in metro station based on G-COWA method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Weibao; Wang, Jianbo; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Fangmeng; Yang, Diying

2018-05-01

In order to get an accurate understanding of the construction safety of deep foundation pit in metro station and reduce the probability and loss of risk occurrence, a risk assessment method based on G-COWA is proposed. Firstly, relying on the specific engineering examples and the construction characteristics of deep foundation pit, an evaluation index system based on the five factors of “human, management, technology, material and environment” is established. Secondly, the C-OWA operator is introduced to realize the evaluation index empowerment and weaken the negative influence of expert subjective preference. The gray cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are combined to construct the construction risk assessment model of deep foundation pit, which can effectively solve the uncertainties. Finally, the model is applied to the actual project of deep foundation pit of Qingdao Metro North Station, determine its construction risk rating is “medium”, evaluate the model is feasible and reasonable. And then corresponding control measures are put forward and useful reference are provided.

Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Fiscal Year 2011 Report Environmental Effects of Offshore Wind Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Hanna, Luke A.

2011-11-01

Potential environmental effects of offshore wind (OSW) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between OSW installations and avian and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. During FY 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) scientists adapted and applied the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), first developed to examine the effects of marine and hydrokinetic energymore » devices on aquatic environments, to offshore wind development. PNNL scientists conducted a risk screening analysis on two initial OSW cases: a wind project in Lake Erie and a wind project off the Atlantic coast of the United States near Atlantic City, New Jersey. The screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two OSW cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device, such as alterations in bottom habitats. Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted during FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an assessment of the vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with OSW installations; a probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. As more data become available that document effects of offshore wind farms on specific receptors in U.S. coastal and Great Lakes waters, probability analyses will be performed.« less

Risk factors for and causes and treatment of recurrence of inferior vena cava type of Budd-Chiari syndrome after stenting in China: A retrospective analysis of a large cohort.

PubMed

Li, Wen-Dong; Yu, Hui-Ying; Qian, Ai-Min; Rong, Jian-Jie; Zhang, Ye-Qing; Li, Xiao-Qiang

2017-03-01

To explore the risk factors for recurrence of inferior vena cava (IVC)-type Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) after stenting and evaluate the feasibility and primary outcomes of endovascular therapies for recurrent BCS. A retrospective analysis of 219 patients was performed to identify risk factors for recurrence. The images of the recurrent patients during follow-up duration and interventional surgery were also reviewed to find the possible reasons of recurrence. The outcome of endovascular therapies for recurrent BCS was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Among the 219 patients, 172 patients with primary IVC-type BCS underwent stenting and 28 patients experienced recurrence. Multivariate analysis identified age, Child-Pugh score, MELD and total bilirubin as independent recurrent indicators. Possible causes of recurrence include thrombosis in the stent, re-obstruction in or above the stent, and stent-related hepatic vein obstruction. Twenty-five patients with recurrent BCS underwent endovascular therapies with a few complications and achieved a high level of short- and mid-term patency. Age, total bilirubin and severity of liver function are the main risk factors for BCS recurrence. These risks might contribute to thrombosis or subsequent fibrous obstruction. Endovascular therapies are effective and safe management options that yield positive outcomes for recurrent BCS. • Risk factors for recurrent Budd-Chiari syndrome were identified by multivariate analysis. • Causes of recurrent Budd-Chiari syndrome were investigated by assessing radiological images. • There is a correlation between risk factors and causes of recurrence. • Endovascular therapies for recurrent Budd-Chiari syndrome are effective and safe.

Soy and isoflavone consumption and risk of gastrointestinal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tse, Genevieve; Eslick, Guy D

2016-02-01

Evidence suggests that soy foods have chemoprotective properties that may reduce the risk of certain cancers such as breast and prostate cancer. However, data involving gastrointestinal (GI) have been limited, and the evidence remains controversial. This study aims to determine the potential relationship between dietary soy intake and GI cancer risk with an evaluation of the effects of isoflavone as an active soy constituent. Relevant studies were identified after literature search via electronic databases through May 2014. Subgroup analysis for isoflavone intake (studies n = 10) was performed. Covariants including gender types, anatomical subsites and preparation methods were also evaluated. Pooled adjusted odds ratios (ORs) comparing highest and lowest categories of dietary pattern scores were calculated using a random effects model. Twenty-two case-control and 18 cohort studies were included for meta-analysis, which contained a total of 633,476 participants and 13,639 GI cancer cases. The combined OR was calculated as 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.99; p value heterogeneity = 0.01), showing only a slight decrease in risk, the association was stronger for colon cancer (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.96-0.99; p value heterogeneity = 0.163) and colorectal cancer (CRC) (OR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.97; p value heterogeneity = 0.3). Subgroup analysis for isoflavone intake showed a statistically significant risk reduction with a risk estimate of 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.92; p value heterogeneity = 0), and particularly for CRC (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.98; p value heterogeneity = 0). This study provides evidence that soy intake as a food group is only associated with a small reduction in GI cancer risk. Separate analysis for dietary isoflavone intakes suggests a stronger inverse association.

Estimation and comparison of cumulative incidences of biliary self-expandable metallic stent dysfunction accounting for competing risks.

PubMed

Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Nakai, Yousuke; Isayama, Hiroyuki; Togawa, Osamu; Kogure, Hirofumi; Kawakubo, Kazumichi; Tsujino, Takeshi; Sasahira, Naoki; Hirano, Kenji; Yamamoto, Natsuyo; Ito, Yukiko; Sasaki, Takashi; Mizuno, Suguru; Toda, Nobuo; Tada, Minoru; Koike, Kazuhiko

2014-03-01

Self-expandable metallic stent (SEMS) placement is widely carried out for distal malignant biliary obstruction, and survival analysis is used to evaluate the cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction (e.g. the Kaplan-Meier [KM] method and the log-rank test). However, these statistical methods might be inappropriate in the presence of 'competing risks' (here, death without SEMS dysfunction), which affects the probability of experiencing the event of interest (SEMS dysfunction); that is, SEMS dysfunction can no longer be observed after death. A competing risk analysis has rarely been done in studies on SEMS. We introduced the concept of a competing risk analysis and illustrated its impact on the evaluation of SEMS outcomes using hypothetical and actual data. Our illustrative study included 476 consecutive patients who underwent SEMS placement for unresectable distal malignant biliary obstruction. A significant difference between cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction in male and female patients via theKM method (P = 0.044 by the log-rank test) disappeared after applying a competing risk analysis (P = 0.115 by Gray's test). In contrast, although cumulative incidences of SEMS dysfunction via the KM method were similar with and without chemotherapy (P = 0.647 by the log-rank test), cumulative incidence of SEMS dysfunction in the non-chemotherapy group was shown to be significantly lower (P = 0.031 by Gray's test) in a competing risk analysis. Death as a competing risk event needs to be appropriately considered in estimating a cumulative incidence of SEMS dysfunction, otherwise analytical results may be biased. © 2013 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2013 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh

This report includes the description and development plan for a Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology that will evaluate multihazard risk in an integrated manner to support the operating nuclear fleet.

Topical Backgrounder: Evaluating Chemical Hazards in the Community: Using RMP's Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Part of a May 1999 series on the Risk Management Program Rule and issues related to chemical emergency management. Explains hazard versus risk, worst-case and alternative release scenarios, flammable endpoints and toxic endpoints.

Selected considerations of implementation of the GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cwiklak, Janusz; Fellner, Andrzej; Fellner, Radoslaw; Jafernik, Henryk; Sledzinski, Janusz

2014-05-01

The article describes analysis of the safety and risk for the implementation of precise approach procedures (Localizer Performance and Vertical Guidance - LPV) with GNSS sensor at airports in Warsaw and Katowice. There were used some techniques of the identification of threats (inducing controlled flight into terrain, landing accident, mid-air collision) and evaluations methods based on Fault Tree Analysis, probability of the risk, safety risk evaluation matrix and Functional Hazard Assesment. Also safety goals were determined. Research led to determine probabilities of appearing of threats, as well as allow compare them with regard to the ILS. As a result of conducting the Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA), there were defined requirements essential to reach the required level of the safety. It is worth to underline, that quantitative requirements were defined using FTA.

An Empirical Assessment of Defense Contractor Risk 1976-1984.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Model to evaluate the. Department of Defense contract pricing , financing, and profit policies . ’ D*’ ’ *NTV D? 7A’:: TA E *A l ..... -:- A-i SN 0102...defense con- tractor risk-return relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean-variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model ...relationship is performed utilizing four methods: mean- variance analysis of rate of return, the Capital Asset Pricing Model , mean-variance analysis of total

Automating the evaluation of flood damages: methodology and potential gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleutério, Julian; Martinez, Edgar Daniel

2010-05-01

The evaluation of flood damage potential consists of three main steps: assessing and processing data, combining data and calculating potential damages. The first step consists of modelling hazard and assessing vulnerability. In general, this step of the evaluation demands more time and investments than the others. The second step of the evaluation consists of combining spatial data on hazard with spatial data on vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a fundamental tool in the realization of this step. GIS software allows the simultaneous analysis of spatial and matrix data. The third step of the evaluation consists of calculating potential damages by means of damage-functions or contingent analysis. All steps demand time and expertise. However, the last two steps must be realized several times when comparing different management scenarios. In addition, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity test are made during the second and third steps of the evaluation. The feasibility of these steps could be relevant in the choice of the extent of the evaluation. Low feasibility could lead to choosing not to evaluate uncertainty or to limit the number of scenario comparisons. Several computer models have been developed over time in order to evaluate the flood risk. GIS software is largely used to realise flood risk analysis. The software is used to combine and process different types of data, and to visualise the risk and the evaluation results. The main advantages of using a GIS in these analyses are: the possibility of "easily" realising the analyses several times, in order to compare different scenarios and study uncertainty; the generation of datasets which could be used any time in future to support territorial decision making; the possibility of adding information over time to update the dataset and make other analyses. However, these analyses require personnel specialisation and time. The use of GIS software to evaluate the flood risk requires personnel with a double professional specialisation. The professional should be proficient in GIS software and in flood damage analysis (which is already a multidisciplinary field). Great effort is necessary in order to correctly evaluate flood damages, and the updating and the improvement of the evaluation over time become a difficult task. The automation of this process should bring great advance in flood management studies over time, especially for public utilities. This study has two specific objectives: (1) show the entire process of automation of the second and third steps of flood damage evaluations; and (2) analyse the induced potential gains in terms of time and expertise needed in the analysis. A programming language is used within GIS software in order to automate hazard and vulnerability data combination and potential damages calculation. We discuss the overall process of flood damage evaluation. The main result of this study is a computational tool which allows significant operational gains on flood loss analyses. We quantify these gains by means of a hypothetical example. The tool significantly reduces the time of analysis and the needs for expertise. An indirect gain is that sensitivity and cost-benefit analyses can be more easily realized.

Human health risk analysis from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking and bathing water of some Indian cities

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Human health risk assessment from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking and bathing water vary from country to country as per life expectancy, body mass index, water consumption pattern and individual concentration of DBPs component, etc. Methods Present study considered average direct water intake per person for adult males and females as 4 & 3 L/day, respectively as per Indian literature for risk evaluation from another component of pollutant. While other important factor like average life expectancy, body weight & body surface area for male and female were considered 64 & 67 years, 51.9 & 45.4 Kg and 1.54 & 1.38 m2 respectively as per Indian Council of Medical Research and WHO report. The corresponding lifetime cancer risk of the formed THMs to human beings was estimated by the USEPA and IRIS method as per Indian population. Results The total cancer risk reached 8.99 E-04 and 8.92 E-04 for males and females, respectively, the highest risk from THMs seems to be from the inhalation route followed by ingestion and dermal contacts. Conclusions The multipath way evaluations of lifetime cancer risks for THMs exposure through ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure were examined at the highest degree of danger. Results reveals that water containing THMs of the selected water treatment plant of the eastern part of India was unsafe in terms of risk evaluation through inhalation and ingestion, while dermal route of risk was found very close to permissible limit of USEPA. Sensitivity analysis shows that every input parameter is sole responsible for total risk potential, whereas exposure duration playing important role for estimation of total risk. PMID:24872885

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Genetic association of telomere length with hepatocellular carcinoma risk: A Mendelian randomization analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Yue; Yu, Chengxiao; Huang, Mingtao; Du, Fangzhi; Song, Ci; Ma, Zijian; Zhai, Xiangjun; Yang, Yuan; Liu, Jibin; Bei, Jin-Xin; Jia, Weihua; Jin, Guangfu; Li, Shengping; Zhou, Weiping; Liu, Jianjun; Dai, Juncheng; Hu, Zhibin

2017-10-01

Observational studies show an association between telomere length and Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk, but the relationship is controversial. Particularly, it remains unclear whether the association is due to confounding or biases inherent in conventional epidemiological studies. Here, we applied Mendelian randomization approach to evaluate whether telomere length is causally associated with HCC risk. Individual-level data were from HBV-related HCC Genome-wide association studies (1,538 HBV positive HCC patients and 1,465 HBV positive controls). Genetic risk score, as proxy for actual measured telomere length, derived from nine telomere length-associated genetic variants was used to evaluate the effect of telomere length on HCC risk. We observed a significant risk signal between genetically increased telomere length and HBV-related HCC risk (OR=2.09, 95% CI 1.32-3.31, P=0.002). Furthermore, a U-shaped curve was fitted by the restricted cubic spline curve, which indicated that either short or long telomere length would increase HCC risk (P=0.0022 for non-linearity test). Subgroup analysis did not reveal significant heterogeneity between different age, gender, smoking status and drinking status groups. Our results indicated that a genetic background that favors longer or shorter telomere length may increase HBV-related HCC risk-a U-shaped association. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmacologic therapies for severe steroid refractory hospitalized ulcerative colitis: A network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Komaki, Yuga; Komaki, Fukiko; Micic, Dejan; Yamada, Akihiro; Suzuki, Yasuo; Sakuraba, Atsushi

2017-06-01

A limited option of therapies is available for hospitalized patients with severe steroid refractory ulcerative colitis (UC). Furthermore, there exists a paucity of direct comparisons between them. To provide a comparative evaluation of the efficacy and safety of pharmacologic therapies, we conducted a network meta-analysis combined with a benefit-risk analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) performed in hospitalized patients with severe steroid refractory UC. Electronic databases were searched through November 2015 for RCTs evaluating the efficacy of therapies for severe steroid refractory hospitalized UC. The outcomes were clinical response, colectomy free rate, and severe adverse events leading to discontinuation of therapy. The primary endpoints were the rank of therapies based on network meta-analysis combined with benefit-risk analysis between clinical response and severe adverse events as well as colectomy free rate and severe adverse events. Eight RCTs of 421 patients were identified. Cyclosporine, infliximab, and tacrolimus as well as placebo were included in our analysis. Network meta-analysis with benefit-risk analysis simultaneously assessing clinical response and severe adverse events demonstrated the rank order of efficacy as infliximab, cyclosporine, tacrolimus, and placebo. Similar analysis for colectomy-free rate and severe adverse events demonstrated the same rank order of efficacy. The differences among infliximab, cyclosporine, and tacrolimus were small in all analyses. The results of the present comprehensive benefit-risk assessment using network meta-analysis provide RCT-based evidence on efficacy and safety of infliximab, cyclosporine, and tacrolimus for hospitalized patients with severe steroid refractory UC. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

TNF-308 G/A polymorphism and risk of acne vulgaris: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37-5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13-4.86, p = 0.023). This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings.

Benefit-risk Evaluation for Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME).

PubMed

Evans, Scott R; Pennello, Gene; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Jiang, Hongyu; Hujer, Andrea M; Hujer, Kristine M; Manca, Claudia; Hill, Carol; Jacobs, Michael R; Chen, Liang; Patel, Robin; Kreiswirth, Barry N; Bonomo, Robert A

2016-09-15

The medical community needs systematic and pragmatic approaches for evaluating the benefit-risk trade-offs of diagnostics that assist in medical decision making. Benefit-Risk Evaluation of Diagnostics: A Framework (BED-FRAME) is a strategy for pragmatic evaluation of diagnostics designed to supplement traditional approaches. BED-FRAME evaluates diagnostic yield and addresses 2 key issues: (1) that diagnostic yield depends on prevalence, and (2) that different diagnostic errors carry different clinical consequences. As such, evaluating and comparing diagnostics depends on prevalence and the relative importance of potential errors. BED-FRAME provides a tool for communicating the expected clinical impact of diagnostic application and the expected trade-offs of diagnostic alternatives. BED-FRAME is a useful fundamental supplement to the standard analysis of diagnostic studies that will aid in clinical decision making. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic Modifiers of Ovarian Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

samples from many countries. To account for population stratification, the genotyping data in combination with HapMap data (CEU, Yoruban, Han Chinese...Cambridge, we evaluated associations with both breast and ovarian cancer using a retrospective likelihood model. This accounts for the age extremes of...carriers we used a competing risk analysis that accounted for the effects on breast and ovarian cancer in parallel. In this competing risk analysis

Antiviral treatment of Bell's palsy based on baseline severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Turgeon, Ricky D; Wilby, Kyle J; Ensom, Mary H H

2015-06-01

We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of antiviral agents on complete recovery of Bell's palsy. We searched CENTRAL, Embase, MEDLINE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, and sources of unpublished literature to November 1, 2014. Primary and secondary outcomes were complete and satisfactory recovery, respectively. To evaluate statistical heterogeneity, we performed subgroup analysis of baseline severity of Bell's palsy and between-study sensitivity analyses based on risk of allocation and detection bias. The 10 included randomized controlled trials (2419 patients; 807 with severe Bell's palsy at onset) had variable risk of bias, with 9 trials having a high risk of bias in at least 1 domain. Complete recovery was not statistically significantly greater with antiviral use versus no antiviral use in the random-effects meta-analysis of 6 trials (relative risk, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.16; I(2) = 65%). Conversely, random-effects meta-analysis of 9 trials showed a statistically significant difference in satisfactory recovery (relative risk, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18; I(2) = 63%). Response to antiviral agents did not differ visually or statistically between patients with severe symptoms at baseline and those with milder disease (test for interaction, P = .11). Sensitivity analyses did not show a clear effect of bias on outcomes. Antiviral agents are not efficacious in increasing the proportion of patients with Bell's palsy who achieved complete recovery, regardless of baseline symptom severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

PubMed

Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2018-05-01

Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between smoking and the risk of acute mountain sickness: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Chen; Lu, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yu-Xiao; Chen, Yu; Yang, Sheng-Hong; Luo, Yong-Jun

2016-01-01

People rapidly ascending to high altitudes (>2500 m) may suffer from acute mountain sickness (AMS). The association between smoking and AMS risk remains unclear. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between smoking and AMS risk. The association between smoking and AMS risk was determined according to predefined criteria established by our team. Meta-analysis was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included all relevant studies listed in the PubMed and Embase databases as of September 2015 in this meta-analysis and performed systemic searches using the terms "smoking", "acute mountain sickness" and "risk factor". The included studies were required to provide clear explanations regarding their definitions of smoking, the final altitudes reached by their participants and the diagnostic criteria used to diagnose AMS. Odds ratios ( ORs ) were used to evaluate the association between smoking and AMS risk across the studies, and the Q statistic was used to test OR heterogeneity, which was considered significant when P  < 0.05. We also computed 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Data extracted from the articles were analyzed with Review Manager 5.3 (Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, UK). We used seven case-control studies including 694 smoking patients and 1986 non-smoking controls to analyze the association between smoking and AMS risk. We observed a significant association between AMS and smoking ( OR  = 0.71, 95% CI 0.52-0.96, P  = 0.03). We determined that smoking may protect against AMS development. However, we do not advise smoking to prevent AMS. More studies are necessary to confirm the role of smoking in AMS risk.

SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harry, T; University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; Manger, R

Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this workmore » was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.« less

Meta-analysis of association between mobile phone use and glioma risk.

PubMed

Wang, Yabo; Guo, Xiaqing

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between mobile phone use and glioma risk through pooling the published data. By searching Medline, EMBSE, and CNKI databases, we screened the open published case-control or cohort studies about mobile phone use and glioma risk by systematic searching strategy. The pooled odds of mobile use in glioma patients versus healthy controls were calculated by meta-analysis method. The statistical analysis was done by Stata12.0 software (http://www.stata.com). After searching the Medline, EMBSE, and CNKI databases, we ultimately included 11 studies range from 2001 to 2008. For ≥1 year group, the data were pooled by random effects model. The combined data showed that there was no association between mobile phone use and glioma odds ratio (OR) =1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.25,P > 0.05). However, a significant association was found between mobile phone use more than 5 years and glioma risk OR = 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.62, P < 0.05). The publication bias of this study was evaluated by funnel plot and line regression test. The funnel plot and line regression test (t = 0.25,P = 0.81) did not indicate any publication bias. Long-term mobile phone use may increase the risk of developing glioma according to this meta-analysis.

The use of failure mode and effects analysis to construct an effective disposal and prevention mechanism for infectious hospital waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Chao Chung, E-mail: ho919@pchome.com.tw; Liao, Ching-Jong

Highlights: > This study is based on a real case in a regional teaching hospital in Taiwan. > We use Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) as the evaluation method. > We successfully identify the risk factors of infectious waste disposal. > We propose plans for the detection of exceptional cases of infectious waste. - Abstract: In recent times, the quality of medical care has been continuously improving in medical institutions wherein patient-centred care has been emphasized. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has also been promoted as a method of basic risk management and as part of total qualitymore » management (TQM) for improving the quality of medical care and preventing mistakes. Therefore, a study was conducted using FMEA to evaluate the potential risk causes in the process of infectious medical waste disposal, devise standard procedures concerning the waste, and propose feasible plans for facilitating the detection of exceptional cases of infectious waste. The analysis revealed the following results regarding medical institutions: (a) FMEA can be used to identify the risk factors of infectious waste disposal. (b) During the infectious waste disposal process, six items were scored over 100 in the assessment of uncontrolled risks: erroneous discarding of infectious waste by patients and their families, erroneous discarding by nursing staff, erroneous discarding by medical staff, cleaning drivers pierced by sharp articles, cleaning staff pierced by sharp articles, and unmarked output units. Therefore, the study concluded that it was necessary to (1) provide education and training about waste classification to the medical staff, patients and their families, nursing staff, and cleaning staff; (2) clarify the signs of caution; and (3) evaluate the failure mode and strengthen the effects.« less

CCDC26 rs4295627 polymorphisms associated with an increased risk of glioma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zeng, Jie; Luo, Yueji; Yu, Min; Li, Jianming; Liu, Zhenghai

2017-11-01

Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumor in adults. Many studies have revealed associations between the rs4295627 polymorphism in the coiled-coil domain containing 26 (CCDC26) gene and the risk of glioma. However, the conclusions are still unclear because some studies have reported inconsistent results. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to determine the relationship and quantitatively evaluate the effect of the rs4295627 polymorphism on the risk of glioma. Data was extracted from PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar, with the most recent search up to December, 2015. Odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CIs were used to evaluate the effect of CCDC26 rs4295627 polymorphisms on glioma. A test of heterogeneity and an assessment of publication bias were also performed. A total of 11 studies (8292 cases and 12,419 controls) were selected for this meta-analysis. Significant associations were observed in all genetic analysis models (G vs T: OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.12-1.43; GG vs TT: OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.24-2.39; GT vs TT: OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.24-1.42; GG + GT vs TT: OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.20-1.53; GG vs GT + TT: OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.18-2.29, respectively). The results of the present study clearly show that the G allele of the rs4295627 polymorphism significantly increases the risk of glioma. Nevertheless, well-designed large-scale studies are needed to further evaluate the effect of the rs4295627 polymorphism on different types or degrees of glioma in different ethnic groups as well as to measure the combined effects on glioma risk.

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOTS Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety an...

High Tumor Volume to Fetal Weight Ratio Is Associated with Worse Fetal Outcomes and Increased Maternal Risk in Fetuses with Sacrococcygeal Teratoma.

PubMed

Gebb, Juliana S; Khalek, Nahla; Qamar, Huma; Johnson, Mark P; Oliver, Edward R; Coleman, Beverly G; Peranteau, William H; Hedrick, Holly L; Flake, Alan W; Adzick, N Scott; Moldenhauer, Julie S

2018-03-01

Tumor volume to fetal weight ratio (TFR) > 0.12 before 24 weeks has been associated with poor outcome in fetuses with sacrococcygeal teratoma (SCT). We evaluated TFR in predicting poor fetal outcome and increased maternal operative risk in our cohort of SCT pregnancies. This is a retrospective, single-center review of fetuses seen with SCT from 1997 to 2015. Patients who chose termination of pregnancy (TOP), delivered elsewhere, or had initial evaluation at > 24 weeks were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis determined the optimal TFR to predict poor fetal outcome and increased maternal operative risk. Poor fetal outcome included fetal demise, neonatal demise, or fetal deterioration warranting open fetal surgery or delivery < 32 weeks. Increased maternal operative risk included cases necessitating open fetal surgery, classical cesarean delivery, or ex utero intrapartum treatment (EXIT). Of 139 pregnancies with SCT, 27 chose TOP, 14 delivered elsewhere, and 40 had initial evaluation at > 24 weeks. Thus, 58 fetuses were reviewed. ROC analysis revealed that at ≤24 weeks, TFR > 0.095 was predictive of poor fetal outcome and TFR > 0.12 was predictive of increased maternal operative risk. This study supports the use of TFR at ≤24 weeks for risk stratification of pregnancies with SCT. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Novel surgical performance evaluation approximates Standardized Incidence Ratio with high accuracy at simple means.

PubMed

Gabbay, Itay E; Gabbay, Uri

2013-01-01

Excess adverse events may be attributable to poor surgical performance but also to case-mix, which is controlled through the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR). SIR calculations can be complicated, resource consuming, and unfeasible in some settings. This article suggests a novel method for SIR approximation. In order to evaluate a potential SIR surrogate measure we predefined acceptance criteria. We developed a new measure - Approximate Risk Index (ARI). "Number Needed for Event" (NNE) is the theoretical number of patients needed "to produce" one adverse event. ARI is defined as the quotient of the group of patients needed for no observed events Ge by total patients treated Ga. Our evaluation compared 2500 surgical units and over 3 million heterogeneous risk surgical patients that were induced through a computerized simulation. Surgical unit's data were computed for SIR and ARI to evaluate compliance with the predefined criteria. Approximation was evaluated by correlation analysis and performance prediction capability by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. ARI strongly correlates with SIR (r(2) = 0.87, p < 0.05). ARI prediction of excessive risk revealed excellent ROC (Area Under the Curve > 0.9) 87% sensitivity and 91% specificity. ARI provides good approximation of SIR and excellent prediction capability. ARI is simple and cost-effective as it requires thorough risk evaluation of only the adverse events patients. ARI can provide a crucial screening and performance evaluation quality control tool. The ARI method may suit other clinical and epidemiological settings where relatively small fraction of the entire population is affected. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after loop electrosurgical excision procedure.

PubMed

Dietrich, Charles S; Yancey, Michael K; Miyazawa, Kunio; Williams, David L; Farley, John

2002-02-01

To evaluate risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities and recurrent cervical dysplasia after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP). A retrospective analysis was performed of all pathology records for LEEPs performed at our institution from January 1996 through July 1998. Follow-up cytology from 2 through 12 months after LEEP was reviewed. Patients with abnormal cytology were referred for further colposcopic evaluation. Statistical analysis using chi2 test for trend, proportional hazards model test, Fisher exact tests, and life table analysis were performed to identify risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after LEEP and to determine relative risk of recurrent dysplasia. A total of 298 women underwent LEEP during the study period, and 29% of these had cytologic abnormalities after LEEP. Grade of dysplasia, ectocervical marginal status, endocervical marginal status, and glandular involvement with dysplasia were not found to be independent risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities. However, when risk factors were analyzed cumulatively, the abnormal cytology rate increased from 24% with no risk factors to 67% with three risk factors present (P =.037). Of patients with abnormal cytology after LEEP, 40% developed subsequent dysplasia, and the mean time to diagnosis was approximately 6 months. The relative risk of subsequent dysplasia ranged from a 20% increase to twice the risk if post-LEEP cytology was low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, respectively. Based on these results, consideration should be given for early colposcopic examination of patients who have evidence of marginal involvement or endocervical glandular involvement with dysplasia. These patients are at increased risk for abnormal cytology and recurrent dysplasia. This initial visit should occur at 6 months, as the mean time to recurrence of dysplasia was 6.5 months.

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Incidence of upper tract abnormalities in patients with neurovesical dysfunction secondary to multiple sclerosis: analysis of risk factors at initial urologic evaluation.

PubMed

Lemack, Gary E; Hawker, Kathleen; Frohman, Elliot

2005-05-01

To determine the incidence of upper tract abnormalities on renal ultrasonography in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) referred for urologic evaluation, as well as to identify any risk factors present on the basis of the historical information and urodynamic findings. Data were derived from all patients with MS referred to the neurourology clinic during a 4-year period. The database was specifically queried for patients found to have upper tract abnormalities on screening renal ultrasonography. Demographic parameters, as well as laboratory values (creatinine) and urodynamic results, were evaluated for risk factors associated with abnormal upper tract findings. Of the 113 patients referred and evaluated, 66 completed both urodynamic testing and renal ultrasonography. Eleven (16.7%) had abnormal ultrasound findings, with focal caliectasis the most common finding. No demographic parameter (age, sex, time since MS diagnosis, MS pattern) was associated with a greater likelihood of abnormal renal ultrasonography on univariate analysis. Neither serum creatinine nor any urodynamic finding (including the presence of dyssynergia or the threshold and amplitude of detrusor overactivity) was associated with abnormal renal ultrasound findings. No patients in our series had any indication of obstructive uropathy more severe than mild hydronephrosis. Of the 16.7% of patients with any abnormal findings, most were noted to have minor caliectasis, likely to be of little clinical significance. Although no factors identifying patients at risk of renal abnormalities at presentation were found, ongoing evaluation of patients with baseline findings will serve to identify those at risk of progression.

Investigation on circular asymmetry of geographical distribution in cancer mortality of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors based on risk maps: analysis of spatial survival data.

PubMed

Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofumi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

2012-05-01

While there is a considerable number of studies on the relationship between the risk of disease or death and direct exposure from the atomic bomb in Hiroshima, the risk for indirect exposure caused by residual radioactivity has not yet been fully evaluated. One of the reasons is that risk assessments have utilized estimated radiation doses, but that it is difficult to estimate indirect exposure. To evaluate risks for other causes, including indirect radiation exposure, as well as direct exposure, a statistical method is described here that evaluates risk with respect to individual location at the time of atomic bomb exposure instead of radiation dose. In addition, it is also considered to split the risks into separate risks due to direct exposure and other causes using radiation dose. The proposed method is applied to a cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. The resultant contour map suggests that the region west to the hypocenter has a higher risk compared to other areas. This in turn suggests that there exists an impact on risk that cannot be explained by direct exposure.

A statistical approach to evaluate the performance of cardiac biomarkers in predicting death due to acute myocardial infarction: time-dependent ROC curve

PubMed

Karaismailoğlu, Eda; Dikmen, Zeliha Günnur; Akbıyık, Filiz; Karaağaoğlu, Ahmet Ergun

2018-04-30

Background/aim: Myoglobin, cardiac troponin T, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and creatine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB) are frequently used biomarkers for evaluating risk of patients admitted to an emergency department with chest pain. Recently, time- dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has been used to evaluate the predictive power of biomarkers where disease status can change over time. We aimed to determine the best set of biomarkers that estimate cardiac death during follow-up time. We also obtained optimal cut-off values of these biomarkers, which differentiates between patients with and without risk of death. A web tool was developed to estimate time intervals in risk. Materials and methods: A total of 410 patients admitted to the emergency department with chest pain and shortness of breath were included. Cox regression analysis was used to determine an optimal set of biomarkers that can be used for estimating cardiac death and to combine the significant biomarkers. Time-dependent ROC analysis was performed for evaluating performances of significant biomarkers and a combined biomarker during 240 h. The bootstrap method was used to compare statistical significance and the Youden index was used to determine optimal cut-off values. Results : Myoglobin and BNP were significant by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Areas under the time-dependent ROC curves of myoglobin and BNP were about 0.80 during 240 h, and that of the combined biomarker (myoglobin + BNP) increased to 0.90 during the first 180 h. Conclusion: Although myoglobin is not clinically specific to a cardiac event, in our study both myoglobin and BNP were found to be statistically significant for estimating cardiac death. Using this combined biomarker may increase the power of prediction. Our web tool can be useful for evaluating the risk status of new patients and helping clinicians in making decisions.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Construction of a pathological risk model of occult lymph node metastases for prognostication by semi-automated image analysis of tumor budding in early-stage oral squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Pedersen, Nicklas Juel; Jensen, David Hebbelstrup; Lelkaitis, Giedrius; Kiss, Katalin; Charabi, Birgitte; Specht, Lena; von Buchwald, Christian

2017-01-01

It is challenging to identify at diagnosis those patients with early oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), who have a poor prognosis and those that have a high risk of harboring occult lymph node metastases. The aim of this study was to develop a standardized and objective digital scoring method to evaluate the predictive value of tumor budding. We developed a semi-automated image-analysis algorithm, Digital Tumor Bud Count (DTBC), to evaluate tumor budding. The algorithm was tested in 222 consecutive patients with early-stage OSCC and major endpoints were overall (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). We subsequently constructed and cross-validated a binary logistic regression model and evaluated its clinical utility by decision curve analysis. A high DTBC was an independent predictor of both poor OS and PFS in a multivariate Cox regression model. The logistic regression model was able to identify patients with occult lymph node metastases with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78–0.89, P <0.001) and a 10-fold cross-validated AUC of 0.79. Compared to other known histopathological risk factors, the DTBC had a higher diagnostic accuracy. The proposed, novel risk model could be used as a guide to identify patients who would benefit from an up-front neck dissection. PMID:28212555

Computed Tomography Angiography Evaluation of Risk Factors for Unstable Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Wang, Guang-Xian; Gong, Ming-Fu; Wen, Li; Liu, Lan-Lan; Yin, Jin-Bo; Duan, Chun-Mei; Zhang, Dong

2018-03-19

To evaluate risk factors for instability in intracranial aneurysms (IAs) using computed tomography angiography (CTA). A total of 614 consecutive patients diagnosed with 661 IAs between August 2011 and February 2016 were reviewed. Patients and IAs were divided into stable and unstable groups. Along with clinical characteristics, IA characteristics were evaluated by CTA. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with unstable IAs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed on the final model, and optimal thresholds were obtained. Patient age (odds ratio [OR], 0.946), cerebral atherosclerosis (CA; OR, 0.525), and IAs located at the middle cerebral artery (OR, 0.473) or internal carotid artery (OR, 0.512) were negatively correlated with instability, whereas IAs with irregular shape (OR, 2.157), deep depth (OR, 1.557), or large flow angle (FA; OR, 1.015) were more likely to be unstable. ROC analysis revealed threshold values of age, depth, and FA of 59.5 years, 4.25 mm, and 87.8°, respectively. The stability of IAs is significantly affected by several factors, including patient age and the presence of CA. IA shape and location also have an impact on the stability of IAs. Growth into an irregular shape, with a deep depth, and a large FA are risk factors for a change in IAs from stable to unstable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

2017-06-01

The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.

The significance of oral streptococci in patients with pneumonia with risk factors for aspiration: the bacterial floral analysis of 16S ribosomal RNA gene using bronchoalveolar lavage fluid.

PubMed

Akata, Kentaro; Yatera, Kazuhiro; Yamasaki, Kei; Kawanami, Toshinori; Naito, Keisuke; Noguchi, Shingo; Fukuda, Kazumasa; Ishimoto, Hiroshi; Taniguchi, Hatsumi; Mukae, Hiroshi

2016-05-11

Aspiration pneumonia has been a growing interest in an aging population. Anaerobes are important pathogens, however, the etiology of aspiration pneumonia is not fully understood. In addition, the relationship between the patient clinical characteristics and the causative pathogens in pneumonia patients with aspiration risk factors are unclear. To evaluate the relationship between the patient clinical characteristics with risk factors for aspiration and bacterial flora in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) in pneumonia patients, the bacterial floral analysis of 16S ribosomal RNA gene was applied in addition to cultivation methods in BALF samples. From April 2010 to February 2014, BALF samples were obtained from the affected lesions of pneumonia via bronchoscopy, and were evaluated by the bacterial floral analysis of 16S rRNA gene in addition to cultivation methods in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). Factors associated with aspiration risks in these patients were analyzed. A total of 177 (CAP 83, HCAP 94) patients were enrolled. According to the results of the bacterial floral analysis, detection rate of oral streptococci as the most detected bacterial phylotypes in BALF was significantly higher in patients with aspiration risks (31.0 %) than in patients without aspiration risks (14.7 %) (P = 0.009). In addition, the percentages of oral streptococci in each BALF sample were significantly higher in patients with aspiration risks (26.6 ± 32.0 %) than in patients without aspiration risks (13.8 ± 25.3 %) (P = 0.002). A multiple linear regression analysis showed that an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) of ≥3, the presence of comorbidities, and a history of pneumonia within a previous year were significantly associated with a detection of oral streptococci in BALF. The bacterial floral analysis of 16S rRNA gene revealed that oral streptococci were mostly detected as the most detected bacterial phylotypes in BALF samples in CAP and HCAP patients with aspiration risks, especially in those with a poor ECOG-PS or a history of pneumonia.

Use of multicriteria decision analysis for assessing the benefit and risk of over-the-counter analgesics.

PubMed

Moore, Andrew; Crossley, Anne; Ng, Bernard; Phillips, Lawrence; Sancak, Özgür; Rainsford, K D

2017-10-01

To test the ability of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model to incorporate disparate data sources of varying quality along with clinical judgement in a benefit-risk assessment of six well-known pain-relief drugs. Six over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics were evaluated against three favourable effects and eight unfavourable effects by seven experts who specialise in the relief of pain, two in a 2-day facilitated workshop whose input data and judgements were later peer-reviewed by five additional experts. Ibuprofen salts and solubilised emerged with the best benefit-risk profile, followed by naproxen, ibuprofen acid, diclofenac, paracetamol and aspirin. Multicriteria decision analysis enabled participants to evaluate the OTC analgesics against a range of favourable and unfavourable effects in a group setting that enabled all issues to be openly aired and debated. The model was easily communicated and understood by the peer reviewers, so the model should be comprehensible to physicians, pharmacists and other health professionals. © 2017 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOT'S Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety and pe...

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koontz, Steve; Valentine, Mark; Keeping, Thomas; Edeen, Marybeth; Spetch, William; Dalton, Penni

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Association Between Cd Exposure and Risk of Prostate Cancer: A PRISMA-Compliant Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ju-Kun, Song; Yuan, Dong-Bo; Rao, Hao-Fu; Chen, Tian-Fei; Luan, Bo-Shi; Xu, Xiao-Ming; Jiang, Fu-Neng; Zhong, Wei-De; Zhu, Jian-Guo

2016-02-01

Several observational studies on the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer have yielded inconsistent results. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the correlation between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer.Relevant studies in PubMed and Embase databases were retrieved until October 2015. We compared the highest and lowest meta-analyses to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer. Summary estimates were obtained using a random-effects model.In the general population, high Cd exposure was not associated with increased prostate cancer (OR 1.21; 95% CI 0.91-1.64), whereas the combined standardized mortality ratio of the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer was 1.66 (95% CI 1.10-2.50) in populations exposed to occupational Cd. In addition, high D-Cd intake (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.96-1.20) and U-Cd concentration (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.48-1.55) among the general population was not related to the increased risk of prostate cancer. In the dose analysis, the summary relative risk was 1.07 (95% CI 0.73-1.57) for each 0.5 μg/g creatinine increase in U-Cd and 1.02 (95% CI 0.99-1.06) for each 10 μg/day increase of dietary Cd intake. However, compared with nonoccupational exposure, high occupational Cd exposure may be associated with the increased risk of prostate cancer.This meta-analysis suggests high Cd exposure as a risk factor for prostate cancer in occupational rather than nonoccupational populations. However, these results should be carefully interpreted because of the significant heterogeneity among studies. Additional large-scale and high-quality prospective studies are needed to confirm the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

2015-01-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16-1.86). There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active interventions.

Esophageal achalasia: a risk factor for carcinoma. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tustumi, F; Bernardo, W M; da Rocha, J R M; Szachnowicz, S; Seguro, F C; Bianchi, E T; Sallum, R A A; Cecconello, I

2017-10-01

Achalasia of the cardia is associated with an increased risk of esophageal carcinoma. The real burden of achalasia at the malignancy genesis is still a controversial issue. Therefore, there are no generally accepted recommendations on follow-up evaluation for achalasia patients. This study aims to estimate the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in achalasia patients. We searched for association between carcinoma and esophageal achalasia in databases up to January 2017 to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis. A total of 1,046 studies were identified from search strategy, of which 40 were selected for meta-analysis. A cumulative number of 11,978 esophageal achalasia patients were evaluated. The incidence of squamous cell carcinoma was 312.4 (StDev 429.16) cases per 100,000 patient-years at risk. The incidence of adenocarcinoma was 21.23 (StDev 31.6) cases per 100,000 patient-years at risk. The prevalence for esophageal carcinoma was 28 carcinoma cases in 1,000 esophageal achalasia patients (CI 95% 2, 39). The prevalence for squamous cell carcinoma was 26 cases in 1,000 achalasia patients (CI 95% 18, 39) and for adenocarcinoma was 4 cases in 1,000 achalasia patients (CI 95% 3, 6).The absolute risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma was 308.1 and for adenocarcinoma was 18.03 cases per 100,000 patients per year. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis estimating the burden of achalasia as an esophageal cancer risk factor. The high increased risk rate for cancer in achalasia patients points to a strict endoscopic surveillance for these patients. Also, the increased risk for developing adenocarcinoma in achalasia patients suggests fundoplication after myotomy, to avoid esophageal reflux and Barret esophagus, a known risk factor for adenocarcinoma. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk of large oil spills: a statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deepwater Horizon.

PubMed

Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter; Michaux, Edouard

2012-12-04

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that followed the explosion of the exploration platform Deepwater Horizon on 20 April 2010 was the largest accidental oil spill so far. In this paper we evaluate the risk of such very severe oil spills based on global historical data from our Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) and investigate if an accident of this size could have been "expected". We also compare the risk of oil spills from such accidents in exploration and production to accidental spills from other activities in the oil chain (tanker ship transport, pipelines, storage/refinery) and analyze the two components of risk, frequency and severity (quantity of oil spilled) separately. This detailed analysis reveals the differences in the structure of the risk between different spill sources, differences in trends over time and it allows in particular assessing the risk of very severe events such as the Deepwater Horizon spill. Such top down risk assessment can serve as an important input to decision making by complementing bottom up engineering risk assessment and can be combined with impact assessment in environmental risk analysis.

Return on Scientific Investment - RoSI: a PMO dynamical index proposal for scientific projects performance evaluation and management.

PubMed

Caous, Cristofer André; Machado, Birajara; Hors, Cora; Zeh, Andrea Kaufmann; Dias, Cleber Gustavo; Amaro Junior, Edson

2012-01-01

To propose a measure (index) of expected risks to evaluate and follow up the performance analysis of research projects involving financial and adequate structure parameters for its development. A ranking of acceptable results regarding research projects with complex variables was used as an index to gauge a project performance. In order to implement this method the ulcer index as the basic model to accommodate the following variables was applied: costs, high impact publication, fund raising, and patent registry. The proposed structured analysis, named here as RoSI (Return on Scientific Investment) comprises a pipeline of analysis to characterize the risk based on a modeling tool that comprises multiple variables interacting in semi-quantitatively environments. This method was tested with data from three different projects in our Institution (projects A, B and C). Different curves reflected the ulcer indexes identifying the project that may have a minor risk (project C) related to development and expected results according to initial or full investment. The results showed that this model contributes significantly to the analysis of risk and planning as well as to the definition of necessary investments that consider contingency actions with benefits to the different stakeholders: the investor or donor, the project manager and the researchers.

Inconsistency in the items included in tools used in general health research and physical therapy to evaluate the methodological quality of randomized controlled trials: a descriptive analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Assessing the risk of bias of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is crucial to understand how biases affect treatment effect estimates. A number of tools have been developed to evaluate risk of bias of RCTs; however, it is unknown how these tools compare to each other in the items included. The main objective of this study was to describe which individual items are included in RCT quality tools used in general health and physical therapy (PT) research, and how these items compare to those of the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) tool. Methods We used comprehensive literature searches and a systematic approach to identify tools that evaluated the methodological quality or risk of bias of RCTs in general health and PT research. We extracted individual items from all quality tools. We calculated the frequency of quality items used across tools and compared them to those in the RoB tool. Comparisons were made between general health and PT quality tools using Chi-squared tests. Results In addition to the RoB tool, 26 quality tools were identified, with 19 being used in general health and seven in PT research. The total number of quality items included in general health research tools was 130, compared with 48 items across PT tools and seven items in the RoB tool. The most frequently included items in general health research tools (14/19, 74%) were inclusion and exclusion criteria, and appropriate statistical analysis. In contrast, the most frequent items included in PT tools (86%, 6/7) were: baseline comparability, blinding of investigator/assessor, and use of intention-to-treat analysis. Key items of the RoB tool (sequence generation and allocation concealment) were included in 71% (5/7) of PT tools, and 63% (12/19) and 37% (7/19) of general health research tools, respectively. Conclusions There is extensive item variation across tools that evaluate the risk of bias of RCTs in health research. Results call for an in-depth analysis of items that should be used to assess risk of bias of RCTs. Further empirical evidence on the use of individual items and the psychometric properties of risk of bias tools is needed. PMID:24044807

Inconsistency in the items included in tools used in general health research and physical therapy to evaluate the methodological quality of randomized controlled trials: a descriptive analysis.

PubMed

Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Fuentes, Jorge; Ospina, Maria; Saltaji, Humam; Hartling, Lisa

2013-09-17

Assessing the risk of bias of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is crucial to understand how biases affect treatment effect estimates. A number of tools have been developed to evaluate risk of bias of RCTs; however, it is unknown how these tools compare to each other in the items included. The main objective of this study was to describe which individual items are included in RCT quality tools used in general health and physical therapy (PT) research, and how these items compare to those of the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) tool. We used comprehensive literature searches and a systematic approach to identify tools that evaluated the methodological quality or risk of bias of RCTs in general health and PT research. We extracted individual items from all quality tools. We calculated the frequency of quality items used across tools and compared them to those in the RoB tool. Comparisons were made between general health and PT quality tools using Chi-squared tests. In addition to the RoB tool, 26 quality tools were identified, with 19 being used in general health and seven in PT research. The total number of quality items included in general health research tools was 130, compared with 48 items across PT tools and seven items in the RoB tool. The most frequently included items in general health research tools (14/19, 74%) were inclusion and exclusion criteria, and appropriate statistical analysis. In contrast, the most frequent items included in PT tools (86%, 6/7) were: baseline comparability, blinding of investigator/assessor, and use of intention-to-treat analysis. Key items of the RoB tool (sequence generation and allocation concealment) were included in 71% (5/7) of PT tools, and 63% (12/19) and 37% (7/19) of general health research tools, respectively. There is extensive item variation across tools that evaluate the risk of bias of RCTs in health research. Results call for an in-depth analysis of items that should be used to assess risk of bias of RCTs. Further empirical evidence on the use of individual items and the psychometric properties of risk of bias tools is needed.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Evaluation of spectral domain optical coherence tomography parameters in ocular hypertension, preperimetric, and early glaucoma.

PubMed

Aydogan, Tuğba; Akçay, BetÜl İlkay Sezgin; Kardeş, Esra; Ergin, Ahmet

2017-11-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic ability of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), macular, optic nerve head (ONH) parameters in healthy subjects, ocular hypertension (OHT), preperimetric glaucoma (PPG), and early glaucoma (EG) patients, to reveal factors affecting the diagnostic ability of spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) parameters and risk factors for glaucoma. Three hundred and twenty-six eyes (89 healthy, 77 OHT, 94 PPG, and 66 EG eyes) were analyzed. RNFL, macular, and ONH parameters were measured with SD-OCT. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity at 95% specificity was calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the glaucoma risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of covariates on the diagnostic ability of parameters. In PPG patients, parameters that had the largest AUC value were average RNFL thickness (0.83) and rim volume (0.83). In EG patients, parameter that had the largest AUC value was average RNFL thickness (0.98). The logistic regression analysis showed average RNFL thickness was a risk factor for both PPG and EG. Diagnostic ability of average RNFL and average ganglion cell complex thickness increased as disease severity increased. Signal strength index did not affect diagnostic abilities. Diagnostic ability of average RNFL and rim area increased as disc area increased. When evaluating patients with glaucoma, patients at risk for glaucoma, and healthy controls RNFL parameters deserve more attention in clinical practice. Further studies are needed to fully understand the influence of covariates on the diagnostic ability of OCT parameters.

Prevalence and risk of malignancy of focal incidental uptake detected by fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in the parotid gland: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Treglia, Giorgio; Bertagna, Francesco; Sadeghi, Ramin; Muoio, Barbara; Giovanella, Luca

2015-12-01

This study aimed at performing a meta-analysis on the prevalence and risk of malignancy of focal parotid incidental uptake (FPIU) detected by hybrid fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) or (18)F-FDG PET alone. A comprehensive literature search of studies published up to July 2014 was performed. Records reporting at least 5 FPIUs were selected. Pooled prevalence and malignancy risk of FPIU were calculated including 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI). Twelve records were selected for our meta-analysis. Pooled prevalence of FPIU detected by (18)F-FDG PET or PET/CT was 0.6 % (95 % CI 0.4-0.7 %), collecting data of 220 patients with FPIU. Overall, 181 FPIUs underwent further evaluation and 165 FPIUs were pathologically proven. Pooled risk of malignancy was 9.6 % (95 % CI 5.4-14.8 %), 10.9 % (95 % CI 5.8-17.3 %) and 20.4 % (95 % CI 12.3-30 %), considering all FPIUs detected, only those which underwent further evaluation and only those pathologically proven, respectively. Selection bias in the included studies, the heterogeneity among studies and the publication bias are limitations of our meta-analysis. Overall FPIUs are observed in about 1 % of (18)F-FDG PET or PET/CT scans and they are benign in most of the cases. Nevertheless, further evaluation is needed whenever FPIUs are detected by (18)F-FDG-PET or PET/CT to exclude malignant lesions or with possible malignant degeneration. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the findings reported by our meta-analysis.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Chlamydia abortus Infection in Tibetan Sheep in Gansu Province, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Qin, Si-Yuan; Yin, Ming-Yang; Cong, Wei; Zhou, Dong-Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Xuan; Zhao, Quan; Zhu, Xing-Quan; Zhou, Ji-Zhang; Qian, Ai-Dong

2014-01-01

Chlamydia abortus, an important pathogen in a variety of animals, is associated with abortion in sheep. In the present study, 1732 blood samples, collected from Tibetan sheep between June 2013 and April 2014, were examined by the indirect hemagglutination (IHA) test, aiming to evaluate the seroprevalence and risk factors of C. abortus infection in Tibetan sheep. 323 of 1732 (18.65%) samples were seropositive for C. abortus antibodies at the cut-off of 1 : 16. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk factors associated with seroprevalence, which could provide foundation to prevent and control C. abortus infection in Tibetan sheep. Gender of Tibetan sheep was left out of the final model because it is not significant in the logistic regression analysis (P > 0.05). Region, season, and age were considered as major risk factors associated with C. abortus infection in Tibetan sheep. Our study revealed a widespread and high prevalence of C. abortus infection in Tibetan sheep in Gansu province, northwest China, with higher exposure risk in different seasons and ages and distinct geographical distribution. PMID:25401129

Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

2007-09-01

The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

Does apical negative pressure prevent the apical extrusion of debris and irrigant compared with conventional irrigation? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Romualdo, Priscilla Coutinho; de Oliveira, Katharina Morant Holanda; Nemezio, Mariana Alencar; Küchler, Erika Calvano; Silva, Raquel Assed Bezerra; Nelson-Filho, Paulo; Silva, Lea Assed Bezerra

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate if apical negative pressure (ANP) irrigation prevents the apical extrusion of debris and irrigant compared with conventional needle irrigation through a systematic review and meta-analysis. A computer search of dental literature was performed using four different databases. A combination of the terms 'apical negative pressure', 'endovac', 'apical extrusion', 'extrusion' and 'endodontics' was used. Studies that used extracted human teeth with a mature apex and that evaluated the apical extrusion of debris and/or irrigating solution were included. After an evaluation of the full studies according to the eligibility criteria, eight studies were critically analysed and subjected to quality assessment and risk of bias. Only four studies that evaluated extrusion of irrigant were considered as having high methodological quality and were subjected to a meta-analysis. Studies evaluating extrusion of debris did not have sufficient methodological quality to be subjected to the meta-analysis. The forest plot indicated that ANP irrigation prevents the risk of irrigant extrusion compared with conventional irrigation (OR 0.07 [95%CI 0.02-0.20]; P < 0.00001). This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that ANP prevents the apical extrusion of irrigant. There is no evidence if this type of irrigation prevents the extrusion of debris. © 2017 Australian Society of Endodontology Inc.

Using the weighted area under the net benefit curve for decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Talluri, Rajesh; Shete, Sanjay

2016-07-18

Risk prediction models have been proposed for various diseases and are being improved as new predictors are identified. A major challenge is to determine whether the newly discovered predictors improve risk prediction. Decision curve analysis has been proposed as an alternative to the area under the curve and net reclassification index to evaluate the performance of prediction models in clinical scenarios. The decision curve computed using the net benefit can evaluate the predictive performance of risk models at a given or range of threshold probabilities. However, when the decision curves for 2 competing models cross in the range of interest, it is difficult to identify the best model as there is no readily available summary measure for evaluating the predictive performance. The key deterrent for using simple measures such as the area under the net benefit curve is the assumption that the threshold probabilities are uniformly distributed among patients. We propose a novel measure for performing decision curve analysis. The approach estimates the distribution of threshold probabilities without the need of additional data. Using the estimated distribution of threshold probabilities, the weighted area under the net benefit curve serves as the summary measure to compare risk prediction models in a range of interest. We compared 3 different approaches, the standard method, the area under the net benefit curve, and the weighted area under the net benefit curve. Type 1 error and power comparisons demonstrate that the weighted area under the net benefit curve has higher power compared to the other methods. Several simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the improvement in model comparison using the weighted area under the net benefit curve compared to the standard method. The proposed measure improves decision curve analysis by using the weighted area under the curve and thereby improves the power of the decision curve analysis to compare risk prediction models in a clinical scenario.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Facility-specific radiation exposure risks and their implications for radiation workers at Department of Energy laboratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Adam Christopher

This research develops a new framework for evaluating the occupational risks of exposure to hazardous substances in any setting where As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) practices are mandated or used. The evaluation is performed by developing a hypothesis-test-based procedure for evaluating the homogeneity of various epidemiological cohorts, and thus the appropriateness of the application of aggregate data-pooling techniques to those cohorts. A statistical methodology is then developed as an alternative to aggregate pooling for situations in which individual cohorts show heterogeneity between them and are thus unsuitable for pooled analysis. These methods are then applied to estimate the all-cancer mortality risks incurred by workers at four Department-of-Energy nuclear weapons laboratories. Both linear, no-threshold and dose-bin averaged risks are calculated and it is further shown that aggregate analysis tends to overestimate the risks with respect to those calculated by the methods developed in this work. The risk estimates developed in Chapter 2 are, in Chapter 3, applied to assess the risks to workers engaged in americium recovery operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The work described in Chapter 3 develops a full radiological protection assessment for the new americium recovery project, including development of exposure cases, creation and modification of MCNP5 models, development of a time-and-motion study, and the final synthesis of all data. This work also develops a new risk-based method of determining whether administrative controls, such as staffing increases, are ALARA-optimized. The EPA's estimate of the value of statistical life is applied to these risk estimates to determine a monetary value for risk. The rate of change of this "risk value" (marginal risk) is then compared with the rate of change of workers' compensations as additional workers are added to the project to reduce the dose (and therefore, presumably, risk) to each individual.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

1991-01-01

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

Integrating Human Factors into Space Vehicle Processing for Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodbury, Sarah; Richards, Kimberly J.

2008-01-01

This presentation will discuss the multiple projects performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance (HEMAP) Lab, improvements that resulted from analysis, and the future applications of the HEMAP Lab for risk assessment by evaluating human/machine interaction and ergonomic designs.

Evaluation of Risk Versus Benefit Information in Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Prescription Drug Television Advertisements.

PubMed

Fahim, Germin; Toscani, Michael; Barone, Joseph A; Wang, Chris; Gandhi, Shivani

2018-01-01

The FDA's Presenting Risk Information draft guidance from May 2009 states that the time of risk versus benefit is a factor taken into consideration when evaluating audio and video direct-to-consumer (DTC) broadcasts. The objective of the study is to evaluate the proportion of risk narration on television (TV) advertisements in comparison to the actual proportion of serious adverse effects findings across select therapeutic areas. The study reviews prescription drug TV advertisements between the years 2010 and 2015 separated by therapeutic class. Indicators to assess risk versus benefit are as follows: total benefit time, total risk time, total ad time, percentage proportion of risk, and number of serious adverse effects (SAEs) listed in the package insert. The objective is establishing proportion of risk-to-benefit narration across therapeutic areas and the proportion of risk narration compared to the number of SAEs in the package insert. These outcomes will reflect whether TV advertisements abide by the "fair balance" rule and if the time spent on risk narrations is proportional to the number of SAEs across therapeutic areas. An analysis of risk versus benefit showed that there was a vast range of percentage differences in risk versus benefit narration across the products selected. The majority of the products narrated showed a 40% to 60% risk-to-benefit ratio. Six out of the 10 products evaluated communicated applicable black box warnings. There was variability among the SAE percentages presented between products. Lack of consistency exists between risks versus benefit proportions among different drug products.

Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.

75 FR 17368 - Notice of Availability of an Evaluation of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Status of Czech...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... close of the comment period, we can identify no additional risk factors that would indicate that..., APHIS can identify no additional risk factors that would indicate that domestic poultry in regions of... (HPAI H5N1) in the Czech Republic and Sweden'' (July 2009), and document our analysis of the risk...

Lifestyle and Risk of Premature Sexual Activity in a High School Population of Seventh-Day Adventists: Valuegenesis 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinbender, Miriam L. M.; Rossignol, Annette MacKay

1996-01-01

Evaluated Adventist lifestyle as a modification of popular American culture which reduces the risk of early sexual activity in adolescents and thus also reduces the risk for both STDs and teen pregnancy. Data analysis demonstrated a wide variety of behaviors were associated with premature sexual activity, including previously reported high-risk…

TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linn, Rodman Ray; Koo, Eunmo; Honig, Kristen Ann

2016-08-10

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautionsmore » that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con ® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is expected to arrive from.« less

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

The “Dry-Run” Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control

PubMed Central

Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B.; Ellis, Alan R.; Gagne, Joshua J.; Desai, Rishi J.; Glynn, Robert J.; Stürmer, Til

2017-01-01

Abstract A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the “dry-run” analysis, which divides the unexposed population into “pseudo-exposed” and “pseudo-unexposed” groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models. PMID:28338910

TNF -308 G/A Polymorphism and Risk of Acne Vulgaris: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

Background The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Methods We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Results A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37–5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13–4.86, p = 0.023). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings. PMID:24498378

Identifying Items to Assess Methodological Quality in Physical Therapy Trials: A Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Cummings, Greta G.; Fuentes, Jorge; Saltaji, Humam; Ha, Christine; Chisholm, Annabritt; Pasichnyk, Dion; Rogers, Todd

2014-01-01

Background Numerous tools and individual items have been proposed to assess the methodological quality of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The frequency of use of these items varies according to health area, which suggests a lack of agreement regarding their relevance to trial quality or risk of bias. Objective The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify the underlying component structure of items and (2) to determine relevant items to evaluate the quality and risk of bias of trials in physical therapy by using an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Design A methodological research design was used, and an EFA was performed. Methods Randomized controlled trials used for this study were randomly selected from searches of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Two reviewers used 45 items gathered from 7 different quality tools to assess the methodological quality of the RCTs. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted using the principal axis factoring (PAF) method followed by varimax rotation. Results Principal axis factoring identified 34 items loaded on 9 common factors: (1) selection bias; (2) performance and detection bias; (3) eligibility, intervention details, and description of outcome measures; (4) psychometric properties of the main outcome; (5) contamination and adherence to treatment; (6) attrition bias; (7) data analysis; (8) sample size; and (9) control and placebo adequacy. Limitation Because of the exploratory nature of the results, a confirmatory factor analysis is needed to validate this model. Conclusions To the authors' knowledge, this is the first factor analysis to explore the underlying component items used to evaluate the methodological quality or risk of bias of RCTs in physical therapy. The items and factors represent a starting point for evaluating the methodological quality and risk of bias in physical therapy trials. Empirical evidence of the association among these items with treatment effects and a confirmatory factor analysis of these results are needed to validate these items. PMID:24786942

Identifying items to assess methodological quality in physical therapy trials: a factor analysis.

PubMed

Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Cummings, Greta G; Fuentes, Jorge; Saltaji, Humam; Ha, Christine; Chisholm, Annabritt; Pasichnyk, Dion; Rogers, Todd

2014-09-01

Numerous tools and individual items have been proposed to assess the methodological quality of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The frequency of use of these items varies according to health area, which suggests a lack of agreement regarding their relevance to trial quality or risk of bias. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify the underlying component structure of items and (2) to determine relevant items to evaluate the quality and risk of bias of trials in physical therapy by using an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). A methodological research design was used, and an EFA was performed. Randomized controlled trials used for this study were randomly selected from searches of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Two reviewers used 45 items gathered from 7 different quality tools to assess the methodological quality of the RCTs. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted using the principal axis factoring (PAF) method followed by varimax rotation. Principal axis factoring identified 34 items loaded on 9 common factors: (1) selection bias; (2) performance and detection bias; (3) eligibility, intervention details, and description of outcome measures; (4) psychometric properties of the main outcome; (5) contamination and adherence to treatment; (6) attrition bias; (7) data analysis; (8) sample size; and (9) control and placebo adequacy. Because of the exploratory nature of the results, a confirmatory factor analysis is needed to validate this model. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first factor analysis to explore the underlying component items used to evaluate the methodological quality or risk of bias of RCTs in physical therapy. The items and factors represent a starting point for evaluating the methodological quality and risk of bias in physical therapy trials. Empirical evidence of the association among these items with treatment effects and a confirmatory factor analysis of these results are needed to validate these items. © 2014 American Physical Therapy Association.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Meta-analysis: eating frequency and risk of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Liu, Yanqiong; Tang, Weizhong; Zhai, Limin; Yang, Shi; Wu, Junrong; Xie, Li; Wang, Jian; Deng, Yan; Qin, Xue; Li, Shan

2014-04-01

Eating frequency has been implicated in the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in several epidemiological studies with contradictory and inconclusive findings. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate their relationship. The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to estimate the effects. A total of 15 eligible studies with 141,431 subjects and 11,248 cases were retrieved after a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases up to October 2013. The overall meta-analysis revealed no strong significant association between eating frequency and risk of CRC in different eating occasion categories (1 meal/day): RR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.94-1.09, P = 0.709; 3 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.93-1.46; 4 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.92-1.38; ≥ 5 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.61-1.47; 4 vs. ≤ 3 daily meals: RR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.92-1.51; and 1-2 vs. 3 or 4 daily meals: RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.63-1.06). However, modest evidence of an increased risk of CRC in case-control studies (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) and ≥ 5 vs. ≤ 3 meals group (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) was observed. Our meta-analysis results do not support the hypothesis that eating frequency strongly reduced or increased the risk of CRC. Clinical randomized trials are required to evaluate this relationship further.

Deep learning in breast cancer risk assessment: evaluation of convolutional neural networks on a clinical dataset of full-field digital mammograms.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L; Huynh, Benjamin Q; Antropova, Natalia O

2017-10-01

To evaluate deep learning in the assessment of breast cancer risk in which convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning are used to extract parenchymal characteristics directly from full-field digital mammographic (FFDM) images instead of using computerized radiographic texture analysis (RTA), 456 clinical FFDM cases were included: a "high-risk" BRCA1/2 gene-mutation carriers dataset (53 cases), a "high-risk" unilateral cancer patients dataset (75 cases), and a "low-risk dataset" (328 cases). Deep learning was compared to the use of features from RTA, as well as to a combination of both in the task of distinguishing between high- and low-risk subjects. Similar classification performances were obtained using CNN [area under the curve [Formula: see text]; standard error [Formula: see text

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Language evaluation protocol for children aged 2 months to 23 months: analysis of sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Labanca, Ludimila; Alves, Cláudia Regina Lindgren; Bragança, Lidia Lourenço Cunha; Dorim, Diego Dias Ramos; Alvim, Cristina Gonçalves; Lemos, Stela Maris Aguiar

2015-01-01

To establish cutoff points for the analysis of the Behavior Observation Form (BOF) of children in the ages of 2 to 23 months and evaluate the sensitivity and specificity by age group and domains (Emission, Reception, and Cognitive Aspects of Language). The sample consisted of 752 children who underwent BOF. Each child was classified as having appropriate language development for the age or having possible risk of language impairment. Performance Indicators (PI) were calculated in each domain as well as the overall PI in all domains. The values for sensitivity and specificity were also calculated. The cutoff points for possible risk of language impairment for each domain and each age group were obtained using the receiver operating characteristics curve. The results of the study revealed that one-third of the assessed children have a risk of language impairment in the first two years of life. The analysis of BOF showed high sensitivity (>90%) in all categories and in all age groups; however, the chance of false-positive results was higher than 20% in the majority of aspects evaluated. It was possible to establish the cutoff points for all categories and age groups with good correlation between sensitivity and specificity, except for the age group of 2 to 6 months. This study provides important contributions to the discussion on the evaluation of the language development of children younger than 2 years.

Risk Costs for New Dams: Economic Analysis and Effects of Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paté-Cornell, M. Elisabeth; Tagaras, George

1986-01-01

This paper presents new developments and illustrations of the introduction of risk and costs in cost-benefit analysis for new dams. The emphasis is on a method of evaluation of the risk costs based on the structure of the local economy. Costs to agricultural property as well as residential, commercial, industrial, and public property are studied in detail. Of particular interest is the case of sequential dam failure and the evaluation of the risk costs attributable to a new dam upstream from an existing one. Three real cases are presented as illustrations of the method: the Auburn Dam, the Dickey-Lincoln School Project, and the Teton Dam, which failed in 1976. This last case provides a calibration tool for the estimation of loss ratios. For these three projects, the risk-modified benefit-cost ratios are computed to assess the effect of the risk on the economic performance of the project. The role of a warning system provided by systematic monitoring of the dam is analyzed: by reducing the risk costs, the warning system attenuates their effect on the benefit-cost ratio. The precursors, however, can be missed or misinterpreted: monitoring does not guarantee that the risks to human life can be reduced to zero. This study shows, in particular, that it is critical to consider the risk costs in the decision to build a new dam when the flood area is large and densely populated.

MYO9B gene polymorphisms are associated with the risk of inflammatory bowel diseases

PubMed Central

Yu, Qiang; Zhu, Chun-Fu; Kong, Zhi-Jun; Zhao, Hui; Tang, Li-Ming; Qin, Xi-Hu

2016-01-01

Myosin IXB (MYO9B) gene polymorphisms have been extensively investigated in terms of their associations with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), with contradictory results. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate associations between MY09B gene polymorphisms and the risk of IBD, Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Eligible studies from PubMed, Embase, and CNKI databases were identified. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. Ten studies published in eight papers reporting 8,975 cases and 9,482 controls were included in this meta-analysis. Five MY09B gene polymorphisms were evaluated: rs1545620, rs962917, rs1457092, rs2305764, and rs2305767. Our data suggested that the rs1545620 polymorphism was associated with a decreased risk of IBD. A similar result was found for rs2305767 and UC. The rs962917 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) increased the risk of IBD, CD and UC. Moreover, rs1457092 increased the risk of IBD and UC. Rs2305764 was also associated with an increased risk of IBD. Furthermore, stratification analyses indicated that rs1545620 decreased the risk of IBD, while rs962917 increased the risk of IBD, CD and UC in Caucasian populations. To sum up, our data indicate that these five SNPs in MY09B are significantly associated with the risk of IBD. PMID:27556856

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Large scale seismic vulnerability and risk evaluation of a masonry churches sample in the historical centre of Naples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formisano, Antonio; Ciccone, Giuseppe; Mele, Annalisa

2017-11-01

This paper investigates about the seismic vulnerability and risk of fifteen masonry churches located in the historical centre of Naples. The used analysis method is derived from a procedure already implemented by the University of Basilicata on the churches of Matera. In order to evaluate for the study area the seismic vulnerability and hazard indexes of selected churches, the use of appropriate technical survey forms is done. Data obtained from applying the employed procedure allow for both plotting of vulnerability maps and providing seismic risk indicators of all churches. The comparison among the indexes achieved allows for the evaluation of the health state of inspected churches so to program a priority scale in performing future retrofitting interventions.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 2: Conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet for oil and gas leasing. Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil production, the Minerals Management Service conducts a formal risk assessment. In evaluating the significance of accidental oil spills, it is important to remember that the occurrence of such spills is fundamentally probabilistic. The effects of oil spills that could occur during oil and gas production must be considered. This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Cook Inlet OCS Lease Sale 149. The objectivemore » of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area. This aspect is discussed in this volume of the two volume report.« less

The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian

2014-11-01

Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research

PubMed Central

Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

2017-01-01

How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this “apples-to-oranges” risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual—comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation. PMID:28767274

Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research.

PubMed

Farquhar, Sebastian; Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this "apples-to-oranges" risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual-comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation.

Updated hazard rate equations for dual safeguard systems.

PubMed

Rothschild, Marc

2007-04-11

A previous paper by this author [M.J. Rothschild, Updated hazard rate equation for single safeguards, J. Hazard. Mater. 130 (1-2) (2006) 15-20] showed that commonly used analytical methods for quantifying failure rates overestimates the risk in some circumstances. This can lead the analyst to mistakenly believe that a given operation presents an unacceptable risk. For a single safeguard system, a formula was presented in that paper that accurately evaluates the risk over a wide range of conditions. This paper expands on that analysis by evaluating the failure rate for dual safeguard systems. The safeguards can be activated at the same time or at staggered times, and the safeguard may provide an indication whether it was successful upon a challenge, or its status may go undetected. These combinations were evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Empirical formulas for evaluating the hazard rate were developed from this analysis. It is shown that having the safeguards activate at the same time while providing positive feedback of their individual actions is the most effective arrangement in reducing the hazard rate. The hazard rate can also be reduced by staggering the testing schedules of the safeguards.

Risk evaluations and condom use decisions of homeless youth: a multi-level qualitative investigation.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Brown, Ryan A; Morrison, Penelope; Vie, Loryana; Ryan, Gery W; Tucker, Joan S

2015-01-31

Homeless youth are at higher risk for sexually transmitted infections and unwanted pregnancy than non-homeless youth. However, little is known about how they evaluate risk within the context of their sexual relationships. It is important to understand homeless youths' condom use decisions in light of their sexual relationships because condom use decisions are influenced by relationship dynamics in addition to individual attitudes and event circumstances. It is also important to understand how relationship level factors, sexual event circumstances, and individual characteristics compare and intersect. To explore these issues, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 37 homeless youth in Los Angeles County in 2011 concerning their recent sexual relationships and analyzed the data using systematic methods of team-based qualitative data analysis. We identified themes of risk-related evaluations and decisions at the relationship/partner, event, and individual level. We also identified three different risk profiles that emerged from analyzing how different levels of risk intersected across individual respondents. The three profiles included 1) Risk Takers, who consistently engage in risk and have low concern about consequences of risk behavior, 2) Risk Avoiders, who consistently show high concern about protection and consistently avoid risk, and 3) Risk Reactors, those who are inconsistent in their concerns about risk and protection and mainly take risks in reaction to relationship and event circumstances. Interventions targeting homeless youth should reflect multiple levels of risk behavior and evaluation in order to address the diversity of risk profiles. Relationship/partner-, event-, and individual-level factors are all important but have different levels of importance for different homeless youth. Interventions should be tailored to address the most important factor contributing to homeless youth reproductive needs.

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

Association between N-Acetyltransferase 2 Polymorphism and Bladder Cancer Risk: a Meta-Analysis in a Single Ethnic Group.

PubMed

Xu, Wan-Jiang; Wen, Li-Ping; Jiang, Xiang-Xin; Ye, Li-Yin; Meng, Fan-Hua; Guan, Sheng; Qian, Ying-Jun; Wei, Jing-Feng

2017-02-01

Many studies have evaluated the correlation between N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation genotype and bladder cancer risk. However, the results are inconsistent and remain to be confirmed in each ethnic group. To assess the effects of NAT2 acetylation status on the risk of bladder cancer in the Chinese population, a meta-analysis was performed. Studies were identified using PubMed and Chinese databases through February 2016. The associations were assessed with pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). This meta-analysis included 10 studies with 896 bladder cancer cases and 1188 controls. In the overall analysis, NAT2 slow acetylation phenotype was significantly associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer in the Chinese population (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.11 - 2.53). In the subgroup analyses by geographic areas and sources of controls, significant risk was found in Mainland China (OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.04 - 3.20) and hospitalbased studies (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.27 - 2.38), but not in Taiwan China. This meta-analysis suggested that the NAT2 slow acetylation genotype is associated with an increased bladder cancer risk in Chinese individuals.

Use of benzodiazepine and risk of cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Kim, Hong-Bae; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Park, Yon Chul; Park, Byoungjin

2017-02-01

Several observational epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer. We investigated the association by using a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the bibliographies of relevant articles to locate additional publications in January 2016. Three evaluators independently reviewed and selected eligible studies based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 796 articles meeting our initial criteria, a total of 22 observational epidemiological studies with 18 case-control studies and 4 cohort studies were included in the final analysis. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] or relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.21) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all studies. Subgroup meta-analyses by various factors such as study design, type of case-control study, study region, and methodological quality of study showed consistent findings. Also, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer (p for trend <0.01). The current meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies suggests that benzodiazepine use is associated with an increased risk of cancer. © 2016 UICC.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with non-attendance in neurodevelopmental follow-up clinic among infants with CHD.

PubMed

Loccoh, Eméfah C; Yu, Sunkyung; Donohue, Janet; Lowery, Ray; Butcher, Jennifer; Pasquali, Sara K; Goldberg, Caren S; Uzark, Karen

2018-04-01

Neurodevelopmental impairment is increasingly recognised as a potentially disabling outcome of CHD and formal evaluation is recommended for high-risk patients. However, data are lacking regarding the proportion of eligible children who actually receive neurodevelopmental evaluation, and barriers to follow-up are unclear. We examined the prevalence and risk factors associated with failure to attend neurodevelopmental follow-up clinic after infant cardiac surgery. Survivors of infant (<1 year) cardiac surgery at our institution (4/2011-3/2014) were included. Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were evaluated in neurodevelopmental clinic attendees and non-attendees in univariate and multivariable analyses. A total of 552 patients were included; median age at surgery was 2.4 months, 15% were premature, and 80% had moderate-severe CHD. Only 17% returned for neurodevelopmental evaluation, with a median age of 12.4 months. In univariate analysis, non-attendees were older at surgery, had lower surgical complexity, fewer non-cardiac anomalies, shorter hospital stay, and lived farther from the surgical center. Non-attendee families had lower income, and fewer were college graduates or had private insurance. In multivariable analysis, lack of private insurance remained independently associated with non-attendance (adjusted odds ratio 1.85, p=0.01), with a trend towards significance for distance from surgical center (adjusted odds ratio 2.86, p=0.054 for ⩾200 miles). The majority of infants with CHD at high risk for neurodevelopmental dysfunction evaluated in this study are not receiving important neurodevelopmental evaluation. Efforts to remove financial/insurance barriers, increase access to neurodevelopmental clinics, and better delineate other barriers to receipt of neurodevelopmental evaluation are needed.

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-06-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forestmore » compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.« less

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Air Force Risk Management Practices in Program Acquisition Using Survey Instrument Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-18

Engineering Effectiveness Survey. CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009. Carnegie Mellon University. November 2012. Field, Andy. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS , 3rd...enough into the survey to begin answering questions on risk practices. All of the data statistical analysis will be performed using SPSS . Prior to...probabilistically using distributions for likelihood and impact. Statistical methods like Monte Carlo can more comprehensively evaluate the cost and

Cell phone use and acoustic neuroma: the need for standardized questionnaires and access to industry data.

PubMed

Han, Yueh-Ying; Kano, Hideyuki; Davis, Devra L; Niranjan, Ajay; Lunsford, L Dade

2009-09-01

The capacity of radiofrequency from cell phones to be absorbed into the brain has prompted concerns that regular cell phone use may increase the risk of acoustic neuroma (AN) and other brain tumors. This article critically evaluates current literature on cell phone use and AN risks and proposes additional studies to clarify any possible linkage. Through a PubMed search, we identified and reviewed 10 case-control studies and 1 cohort study of AN risks associated with cell phone use and a meta-analysis of long-term mobile phone use and its association with AN and other brain tumors. Most studies did not find association between the development of AN and cell phone use, but some studies that followed cases for 10 years or more did show an association. Among 10 case-control studies, odds ratios for AN associated with regular cell phone use ranged from 0.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2-1.0) to 4.2 (95% CI, 1.8-10). Cell phone use was not associated with increased risk for AN in the Danish cohort study, which excluded business users from their study. The meta-analysis, which included 3 case-control studies, found that subjects who used cell phones for at least 10 years had a 2.4-fold greater risk of developing ipsilateral AN. In general, retrospective studies are limited in the ability to assess cell phone exposure because of recall bias and misclassification. The evaluation of AN risk factors is challenging due to its long latency. Some studies of longer term cell phone use have found an increased risk of ipsilateral AN. Adopting a prospective approach to acquire data on cell phone use, obtaining retrospective billing records that provide independent evaluations of exposures, and incorporating information on other key potential risk factors from questionnaires could markedly advance the capacity of studies to evaluate the impact of cell phones on AN.

Failure to recognize preoperatively high-risk endometrial carcinoma is associated with a poor outcome.

PubMed

Di Cello, Annalisa; Rania, Erika; Zuccalà, Valeria; Venturella, Roberta; Mocciaro, Rita; Zullo, Fulvio; Morelli, Michele

2015-11-01

To evaluate the misdiagnosis between endometrial biopsy and definitive surgical pathology and to assess whether the failure in recognizing preoperatively high-risk endometrial carcinoma (EC) can impact oncological outcomes. A retrospective study was conducted to evaluate patients with EC diagnosed by preoperative endometrial biopsy who subsequently underwent surgical staging between 2006 and 2013 at our institution. In patients with a surgical diagnosis of high-risk EC, histotype and grade change between the endometrial biopsy and surgical specimen (discordance diagnosis) were evaluated and correlated to survival outcomes. Cox's regression model for multivariable analysis was used to evaluate the effect of several variables (age, stage, discordance in diagnosis, co-morbidities, frozen section, extensive surgical staging and adjuvant chemotherapy) on the survival rate. Data from 447 patients were reviewed. Among 109 women with surgical diagnosis of high-risk EC, 35 (32.1%) were preoperatively misdiagnosed. Of these 35 women, 24 (68.6%) cases were upgraded to grade 3, and 11 (3.4%) were upgraded to serous or clear cell type in the definitive specimen. The 5-year overall survival (OS; 70.2 vs. 86.8%; p=0.029), disease-specific survival (DSS; 72.5 vs. 88.2%; p=0.039) and recurrence free survival (RFS; 62.6 vs. 82.5%; p=0.024) were significantly lower in the high-risk EC patients who were preoperatively undiagnosed in the endometrial biopsy compared with patients with an appropriate preoperative histological diagnosis. Controlling for age, stage, co-morbidities, frozen section, extensive surgical staging and adjuvant chemotherapy, multivariable analysis revealed that discordance in diagnosis was associated with poorer survival outcomes. Failure to recognize preoperatively high-risk ECs is associated with worse outcomes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Levin, Richard R.; Carpenter, Elisabeth J.

1990-01-01

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Risk factors for failed conversion of labor epidural analgesia to cesarean delivery anesthesia: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational trials.

PubMed

Bauer, M E; Kountanis, J A; Tsen, L C; Greenfield, M L; Mhyre, J M

2012-10-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates evidence for seven risk factors associated with failed conversion of labor epidural analgesia to cesarean delivery anesthesia. Online scientific literature databases were searched using a strategy which identified observational trials, published between January 1979 and May 2011, which evaluated risk factors for failed conversion of epidural analgesia to anesthesia or documented a failure rate resulting in general anesthesia. 1450 trials were screened, and 13 trials were included for review (n=8628). Three factors increase the risk for failed conversion: an increasing number of clinician-administered boluses during labor (OR=3.2, 95% CI 1.8-5.5), greater urgency for cesarean delivery (OR=40.4, 95% CI 8.8-186), and a non-obstetric anesthesiologist providing care (OR=4.6, 95% CI 1.8-11.5). Insufficient evidence is available to support combined spinal-epidural versus standard epidural techniques, duration of epidural analgesia, cervical dilation at the time of epidural placement, and body mass index or weight as risk factors for failed epidural conversion. The risk of failed conversion of labor epidural analgesia to anesthesia is increased with an increasing number of boluses administered during labor, an enhanced urgency for cesarean delivery, and care being provided by a non-obstetric anesthesiologist. Further high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the many potential risk factors associated with failed conversion of labor epidural analgesia to anesthesia for cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk taking in first and second generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents: an emerging challenge for school nurses.

PubMed

Jolly, Kim; Archibald, Cynthia; Liehr, Patricia

2013-10-01

School nurses are well positioned to address risk-taking behaviors for adolescents in their care. The purpose of this mixed-method exploratory study was to explore risk taking in Afro-Caribbean adolescents in South Florida, comparing first- to second-generation adolescents. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from an immigrant group using the adolescent risk-taking instrument to evaluate risk-taking attitudes, behaviors, and self-described riskiest activities. One-hundred and six adolescents participated; 44% were first generation Afro-Caribbean. Data analysis included analysis of variance, frequencies, and content analysis. There were no differences in risk-taking attitudes; smaller percentages of first generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents reported sexual activity, substance use, and violence. Over one third of the sample, regardless of generational status, reported alcohol use, but did not note alcohol or other health-compromising behaviors as "riskiest" activities. It is important to better understand Afro-Caribbean adolescents' perspectives about risky behaviors, and school-based venues offer the best promise for reaching these adolescents.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying themore » most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.« less

Risk management of key issues of FPSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liping; Sun, Hai

2012-12-01

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for incidental durotomy during lumbar surgery: a retrospective study by multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Zhixiang; Shao, Peng; Sun, Qizhao; Zhao, Dong

2015-03-01

The purpose of the present study was to use a prospectively collected data to evaluate the rate of incidental durotomy (ID) during lumbar surgery and determine the associated risk factors by using univariate and multivariate analysis. We retrospectively reviewed 2184 patients who underwent lumbar surgery from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011 at a single hospital. Patients with ID (n=97) were compared with the patients without ID (n=2019). The influences of several potential risk factors that might affect the occurrence of ID were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses. The overall incidence of ID was 4.62%. Univariate analysis demonstrated that older age, diabetes, lumbar central stenosis, posterior approach, revision surgery, prior lumber surgery and minimal invasive surgery are risk factors for ID during lumbar surgery. However, multivariate analysis identified older age, prior lumber surgery, revision surgery, and minimally invasive surgery as independent risk factors. Older age, prior lumber surgery, revision surgery, and minimal invasive surgery were independent risk factors for ID during lumbar surgery. These findings may guide clinicians making future surgical decisions regarding ID and aid in the patient counseling process to alleviate risks and complications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress hyperglycaemia in critically ill patients and the subsequent risk of diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ali Abdelhamid, Yasmine; Kar, Palash; Finnis, Mark E; Phillips, Liza K; Plummer, Mark P; Shaw, Jonathan E; Horowitz, Michael; Deane, Adam M

2016-09-27

Hyperglycaemia occurs frequently in critically ill patients without diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate whether this 'stress hyperglycaemia' identifies survivors of critical illness at increased risk of subsequently developing diabetes. We searched the MEDLINE and Embase databases from their inception to February 2016. We included observational studies evaluating adults admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) who developed stress hyperglycaemia if the researchers reported incident diabetes or prediabetes diagnosed ≥3 months after hospital discharge. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts of identified studies and evaluated the full text of relevant studies. Data were extracted using pre-defined data fields, and risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Pooled ORs with 95 % CIs for the occurrence of diabetes were calculated using a random-effects model. Four cohort studies provided 2923 participants, including 698 with stress hyperglycaemia and 131 cases of newly diagnosed diabetes. Stress hyperglycaemia was associated with increased risk of incident diabetes (OR 3.48; 95 % CI 2.02-5.98; I 2  = 36.5 %). Studies differed with regard to definitions of stress hyperglycaemia, follow-up and cohorts studied. Stress hyperglycaemia during ICU admission is associated with increased risk of incident diabetes. The strength of this association remains uncertain because of statistical and clinical heterogeneity among the included studies.

Mission safety evaluation report for STS-35: Postflight edition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, William C.; Finkel, Seymour I.

1991-01-01

Space Transportation System 35 (STS-35) safety risk factors that represent a change from previous flights that had an impact on this flight, and factors that were unique to this flight are discussed. While some changes to the safety risk baseline since the previous flight are included to highlight their significance in risk level change, the primary purpose is to insure that changes which were too late too include in formal changes through the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis/Critical Items List (FMEA/CIL) and Hazard Analysis process are documented along with the safety position, which includes the acceptance rationale.

Earthquakes and building design: a primer for the laboratory animal professional.

PubMed

Vogelweid, Catherine M; Hill, James B; Shea, Robert A; Johnson, Daniel B

2005-01-01

Earthquakes can occur in most regions of the United States, so it might be necessary to reinforce vulnerable animal facilities to better protect research animals during these unpredictable events. A risk analysis should include an evaluation of the seismic hazard risk at the proposed building site balanced against the estimated consequences of losses. Risk analysis can help in better justifying and recommending to building owners the costs of incorporating additional seismic reinforcements. The planning team needs to specify the level of post-earthquake building function that is desired in the facility, and then design the facility to it.

Evaluation and recommendation of sensitivity analysis methods for application to Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation models.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Christopher Frey, H; Zheng, Junyu

2006-11-01

Sensitivity analyses of exposure or risk models can help identify the most significant factors to aid in risk management or to prioritize additional research to reduce uncertainty in the estimates. However, sensitivity analysis is challenged by non-linearity, interactions between inputs, and multiple days or time scales. Selected sensitivity analysis methods are evaluated with respect to their applicability to human exposure models with such features using a testbed. The testbed is a simplified version of a US Environmental Protection Agency's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. The methods evaluated include the Pearson and Spearman correlation, sample and rank regression, analysis of variance, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST), and Sobol's method. The first five methods are known as "sampling-based" techniques, wheras the latter two methods are known as "variance-based" techniques. The main objective of the test cases was to identify the main and total contributions of individual inputs to the output variance. Sobol's method and FAST directly quantified these measures of sensitivity. Results show that sensitivity of an input typically changed when evaluated under different time scales (e.g., daily versus monthly). All methods provided similar insights regarding less important inputs; however, Sobol's method and FAST provided more robust insights with respect to sensitivity of important inputs compared to the sampling-based techniques. Thus, the sampling-based methods can be used in a screening step to identify unimportant inputs, followed by application of more computationally intensive refined methods to a smaller set of inputs. The implications of time variation in sensitivity results for risk management are briefly discussed.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of alendronate and zoledronate for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis.

PubMed

Serrano, Ana Julissa; Begoña, Leire; Anitua, Eduardo; Cobos, Raquel; Orive, Gorka

2013-12-01

The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of two bisphosphonates (alendronate and zoledronate) in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. The incidence of fractures was considered as primary endpoint. Only randomized trials with a follow-up period of 1 year or more were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. We excluded studies that included patients with secondary osteoporosis especially in relation to therapy with corticosteroids or other drugs or diseases known to affect bone mineral density. Studies published as subgroup analysis, extension studies, economic evaluations, and comparisons with active control were excluded. The methodological quality of controlled clinical trials that met these inclusion criteria was evaluated. No studies were excluded from analysis due to lack of quality. The risk ratio of hip, vertebral and wrist fractures for alendronate were 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.93], 0.54 (95% CI 0.44-0.66) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.33-1.25), respectively. Zoledronate risk ratio was 0.62 (95% CI 0.46-0.82) and 0.38 (95% CI 0.22-0.67) for hip and vertebral fractures, respectively.

Residential road traffic noise as a risk factor for hypertension in adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis of analytic studies published in the period 2011-2017.

PubMed

Dzhambov, Angel M; Dimitrova, Donka D

2018-05-07

Multiple cross-sectional studies indicated an association between hypertension and road traffic noise and they were recently synthetized in a WHO systematic evidence review. However, recent years have seen a growing body of high-quality, large-scale research, which is missing from the WHO review. Therefore, we aimed to close that gap by conducting an updated systematic review and meta-analysis on the exposure-response relationship between residential road traffic noise and the risk of hypertension in adults. Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Internet, conference proceedings, reference lists, and expert archives in English, Russian, and Spanish through August 5, 2017. The risk of bias for each extracted estimate and the overall quality of evidence were evaluated using a list of predefined safeguards against bias related to different study characteristics and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation system, respectively. The inverse variance heterogeneity (IVhet) model was used for meta-analysis. The possibility of publication bias was evaluated by funnel and Doi plots, and asymmetry in these was tested with Egger's test and the Luis Furuya-Kanamori index, respectively. Sensitivity analyses included leave-one-out meta-analysis, subgroup meta-analysis with meta-regressions, and non-linear exposure-response meta-analysis. Based on seven cohort and two case-control studies (n = 5 514 555; 14 estimates; L den range ≈ 25-90 dB(A)), we found "low" evidence of RR per 10 dB(A)  = 1.018 (95% CI: 0.984, 1.053), moderate heterogeneity (I 2  = 46%), and no publication bias. In the subgroup of cohort studies, we found "moderate" evidence of RR per 10 dB(A)  = 1.018 (95% CI: 0.987, 1.049), I 2  = 31%, and no publication bias. In conclusion, residential road traffic noise was associated with higher risk of hypertension in adults, but the risk was lower than previously reported in the systematic review literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

Risk factors for recurrent symptomatic pigmented biliary stones after percutaneous transhepatic biliary extraction.

PubMed

Kim, Dong Won; Lee, Sang Yun; Cho, Jin-Han; Kang, Myong Jin; Noh, Myung Hwan; Park, Byeong-Ho

2010-07-01

To evaluate risk factors for the recurrence of biliary stones after a percutaneous transhepatic biliary stone extraction. The procedures were performed on 339 patients between July 2004 and December 2008 (54 months). Medical records and images were retrospectively reviewed for 135 patients (mean age, 66.4 years; 83 men and 52 women) who had undergone follow-up for a mean of 13.2 months (range, 3-37 months). To evaluate risk factors for the recurrence of biliary stones, variables were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses. Variables included sex, age, stone location, number of stones, stone size, presence of a peripapillary diverticulum, application of antegrade sphincteroplasty, presence of a biliary stricture, largest biliary diameter before the procedure, and gallbladder status. Thirty-three of the 135 patients (24%) had recurrent symptomatic biliary stones and underwent an additional extraction. The mean time to recurrence was 17.2 months +/- 8.7. Univariate analysis of risk factors for recurrence of biliary stones demonstrated that location, number of stones, stone size, application of antegrade sphincteroplasty, presence of a biliary stricture, and biliary diameter were significant factors (P < .05). With use of multivariate analysis, the number of stones (> or =6; relative risk, 64.8; 95% confidence interval: 5.8, 717.6) and stone size (> or =14 mm; relative risk, 3.8; 95% confidence interval: 1.138, 13.231) were determined to be significant risk factors. The independent risk factors for recurrence of symptomatic biliary stones after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stone extraction were a stone size of at least 14 mm and the presence of at least six stones. Copyright 2010 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthropometrics to Identify Overweight Children at Most Risk for the Development of Cardiometabolic Disease.

PubMed

Labyak, Corinne A; Janicke, David M; Lim, Crystal S; Colee, James; Mathews, Anne E

2013-12-01

Sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) is a novel anthropometric that correlates more strongly with visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and cardiometabolic disease risk in adults compared with body mass index (BMI). However, little research has evaluated this measurement in children. To evaluate SAD as a measure of cardiometabolic risk compared with other anthropometrics in overweight/obese children. This study was a cross-sectional subset analysis of 8- to 12-year-old overweight/ obese children. SAD was compared to BMI, waist circumference (WC), BMI z -score, and percent body fat to determine which measurement was most closely associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. A total cardiometabolic risk score comprising all biochemical markers and blood pressure was also compared to these same anthropometrics. Overweight/obese children (n = 145, mean age 10 ± 1.4 years, mean BMI percentile 97.9 ± 0.02) were included in the analysis. SAD correlated with the greatest number of biochemical markers/blood pressure values including triglycerides ( r = .18, P = .03), HgbA1c ( r = .21, P = .01), and systolic blood pressure ( r = .38, P < .0001). SAD was more strongly correlated to total risk score ( r = .25, P = .002) than WC ( r = .22, P = .006), BMI ( r = .17, P = .04), BMI- z ( r = .18, P = .03), and percent body fat ( r = .18, P = .03). This is the first study to evaluate SAD in overweight/obese American children as a marker of cardiometabolic disease risk. The results suggest a slightly stronger correlation between SAD and cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight/obese children; however, all correlations were weak. As this was a pilot study, additional research is needed prior to recommending the use of this measurement in clinical practice.

Risk Factors for Peri-Implantitis: Effect of History of Periodontal Disease and Smoking Habits. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Berton, Federico; Perinetti, Giuseppe; Frassetto, Andrea; Lombardi, Teresa; Khoury, Aiman; Andolsek, Francesca; Di Lenarda, Roberto

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives The purpose of this review was to evaluate whether history of periodontitis and smoking habits could represent a risk factor for peri-implantitis and implant loss. Material and Methods This systematic review followed PRISMA guidelines and was registered at the PROSPERO database [registration numbers CRD42016034160 (effect of history of periodontitis) and CRD42016033676 (effect of smoking)]. Broad electronic (MEDLINE) and manual searches were conducted among articles published from January 1st 1990 up to December 31st 2015, resulting in 49332 records for history of periodontitis and 3199 for smoking habits. Selection criteria included prospective studies comparing two cohorts of patients, with and without the investigated risk factor, with a minimum follow-up period of three years, and reporting data on peri-implantitis and implant loss occurrence. Considering that only prospective studies were included, dichotomous data were expressed as risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results Three studies evaluating history of periodontitis (on which quantitative analysis was performed) and one study on smoking effect were included. Both implant and patient-based meta-analyses revealed a significantly higher risk of developing peri-implantitis in patients with a history of periodontitis compared with periodontally healthy subjects, but not a statistically significant increased risk for implant loss. Conclusions The outcomes of this systematic review indicate history of periodontitis as a possible risk factor for peri-implantitis, while insufficient data are present in literature to evaluate the role of smoking. However, available evidence is still weak and immature, and sound epidemiological studies are needed to analyse the specific contribution of these potential risk factors. PMID:27833728

Systematic review of fall risk screening tools for older patients in acute hospitals.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata; Bartolozzi, Francesco; Piredda, Michela; De Marinis, Maria Grazia

2015-06-01

To determine the most accurate fall risk screening tools for predicting falls among patients aged 65 years or older admitted to acute care hospitals. Falls represent a serious problem in older inpatients due to the potential physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. Older inpatients present with risk factors associated with age-related physiological and psychological changes as well as multiple morbidities. Thus, fall risk screening tools for older adults should include these specific risk factors. There are no published recommendations addressing what tools are appropriate for older hospitalized adults. Systematic review. MEDLINE, CINAHL and Cochrane electronic databases were searched between January 1981-April 2013. Only prospective validation studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values were included. Recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews have been followed. Three fall risk assessment tools were evaluated in seven articles. Due to the limited number of studies, meta-analysis was carried out only for the STRATIFY and Hendrich Fall Risk Model II. In the combined analysis, the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II demonstrated higher sensitivity than STRATIFY, while the STRATIFY showed higher specificity. In both tools, the Youden index showed low prognostic accuracy. The identified tools do not demonstrate predictive values as high as needed for identifying older inpatients at risk for falls. For this reason, no tool can be recommended for fall detection. More research is needed to evaluate fall risk screening tools for older inpatients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Culturally Sensitive Risk Behavior Prevention Programs for African American Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metzger, Isha; Cooper, Shauna M.; Zarrett, Nicole; Flory, Kate

2013-01-01

The current review conducted a systematic assessment of culturally sensitive risk prevention programs for African American adolescents. Prevention programs meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were evaluated across several domains: (1) theoretical orientation and foundation; (2) methodological rigor; (3) level of cultural integration; (4)…

Identification and evaluation of candidate genes associated with susceptibility to PCB-126 induced developmental toxicity: a genome-wide analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) are potent teratogens that persist in the environment and pose significant risk to ecological health. Variability in risk of developmental cardiotoxicity caused by DLCs has been demonstrated within and among several vertebrate species. Beyond our know...

DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE OF A XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM DATABASE MANAGER FOR METABOLIC SIMULATOR ENHANCEMENT AND CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A major uncertainty that has long been recognized in evaluating chemical toxicity is accounting for metabolic activation of chemicals resulting in increased toxicity. In silico approaches to predict chemical metabolism and to subsequently screen and prioritize chemicals for risk ...

Repeated holdout Cross-Validation of Model to Estimate Risk of Lyme Disease by Landscape Attributes

EPA Science Inventory

We previously modeled Lyme disease (LD) risk at the landscape scale; here we evaluate the model's overall goodness-of-fit using holdout validation. Landscapes were characterized within road-bounded analysis units (AU). Observed LD cases (obsLD) were ascertained per AU. Data were ...

Axis I Screens and Suicide Risk in Jails: A Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Kimberly S.; Rogers, Richard

2007-01-01

Mental health professionals conducting screenings in jail settings face formidable challenges in identifying inmates at risk for major depression and suicide. Psychologists often rely on correctional staff to provide initial appraisals of those inmates requiring further evaluation. In a sample of 100 jail detainees, the effectiveness of two…

Landmark Trials | Division of Cancer Prevention

Cancer.gov

The studies listed below represent the first major clinical trials to evaluate risk reduction for people at high risk of breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, ovarian, cervical, and lung cancer. Analysis of the data gathered from these large trials continues to contribute valuable understanding about related issues, including screening, patient-reported symptoms, quality of

Risk and value analysis of SETI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billingham, J.

1986-01-01

The risks, values, and costs of the SETI project are evaluated and compared with those of the Viking project. Examination of the scientific values, side benefits, and costs of the two projects reveal that both projects provide equal benefits at equal costs. The probability of scientific and technical success is analyzed.

Evaluation of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk in Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) classes.

PubMed

Oyarzabal, Omar A; Rowe, Ellen

2017-04-01

The terms hazard and risk are significant building blocks for the organization of risk-based food safety plans. Unfortunately, these terms are not clear for some personnel working in food manufacturing facilities. In addition, there are few examples of active learning modules for teaching adult participants the principles of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of an active learning module to teach hazard and risk to participants of HACCP classes provided by the University of Vermont Extension in 2015 and 2016. This interactive module is comprised of a questionnaire; group playing of a dice game that we have previously introduced in the teaching of HACCP; the discussion of the terms hazard and risk; and a self-assessment questionnaire to evaluate the teaching of hazard and risk. From 71 adult participants that completed this module, 40 participants (56%) provided the most appropriate definition of hazard, 19 participants (27%) provided the most appropriate definition of risk, 14 participants (20%) provided the most appropriate definitions of both hazard and risk, and 23 participants (32%) did not provide an appropriate definition for hazard or risk. Self-assessment data showed an improvement in the understanding of these terms (P < 0.05). Thirty participants (42%) stated that the most valuable thing they learned with this interactive module was the difference between hazard and risk, and 40 participants (65%) responded that they did not attend similar presentations in the past. The fact that less than one third of the participants answered properly to the definitions of hazard and risk at baseline is not surprising. However, these results highlight the need for the incorporation of modules to discuss these important food safety terms and include more active learning modules to teach food safety classes. This study suggests that active learning helps food personnel better understand important food safety terms that serve as building blocks for the understanding of more complex food safety topics.

Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation.

PubMed

Carlberg, Michael; Hardell, Lennart

2017-01-01

Objective. Bradford Hill's viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31-2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years' latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20-2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years' latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41-2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF) radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma.

Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation

PubMed Central

Hardell, Lennart

2017-01-01

Objective. Bradford Hill's viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31–2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years' latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20–2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years' latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41–2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF) radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma. PMID:28401165

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia-evidence from an updated meta-analysis including 35 studies.

PubMed

Wang, Haigang; Wang, Jiali; Zhao, Lixia; Liu, Xinchun; Mi, Wenjie

2012-09-04

5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) variants, C677T and A1298C, have been reported to be associated with decreased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). However, results derived from individually underpowered studies are conflicting. We carried out an updated meta-analysis on the association between MTHFR polymorphisms and ALL risk. Relevant publications were searched through PUBMED and EMBASE databases. The associations between MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and the risk of ALL were evaluated by odds ratios (ORs). The heterogeneity and publication bias were estimated. Meta-regression analysis was performed to evaluate the potential sources of heterogeneity. C677T polymorphism was associated with a reduced risk of ALL (allele contrast: ORRE = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99). Subgroup analysis showed MTHFR C677T variant was associated with decreased susceptibility to ALL in children and Caucasians. Meta-regression showed the logOR for the association between T allele and ALL increased as sex ratio (M/F) in the case group increased (P = 0.01). Regarding A1298C polymorphism, no significant association was observed (allele contrast: ORRE = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.91-1.11). There was no publication bias for C677T or A1298C polymorphism. The present meta-analysis suggests that the C677T polymorphism, not A1298C, in MTHFR gene is associated with a decreased risk of ALL, particularly among children and Caucasians subjects. Our findings suggest that the influence of the C677T polymorphism on ALL susceptibility is modified by sex ratio in cases (M/F). Since folate intake may be a possible confounding factor, including this factor in future prospective studies is warranted. Further meta-analysis studies should be at least stratified for folate levels and gender to give more powerful and informative results.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Risk of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Evidence from an updated meta-analysis including 35 studies

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) variants, C677T and A1298C, have been reported to be associated with decreased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). However, results derived from individually underpowered studies are conflicting. We carried out an updated meta-analysis on the association between MTHFR polymorphisms and ALL risk. Methods Relevant publications were searched through PUBMED and EMBASE databases. The associations between MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms and the risk of ALL were evaluated by odds ratios (ORs). The heterogeneity and publication bias were estimated. Meta-regression analysis was performed to evaluate the potential sources of heterogeneity. Results C677T polymorphism was associated with a reduced risk of ALL (allele contrast: ORRE = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99). Subgroup analysis showed MTHFR C677T variant was associated with decreased susceptibility to ALL in children and Caucasians. Meta-regression showed the logOR for the association between T allele and ALL increased as sex ratio (M/F) in the case group increased (P = 0.01). Regarding A1298C polymorphism, no significant association was observed (allele contrast: ORRE = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.91-1.11). There was no publication bias for C677T or A1298C polymorphism. Conclusions The present meta-analysis suggests that the C677T polymorphism, not A1298C, in MTHFR gene is associated with a decreased risk of ALL, particularly among children and Caucasians subjects. Our findings suggest that the influence of the C677T polymorphism on ALL susceptibility is modified by sex ratio in cases (M/F). Since folate intake may be a possible confounding factor, including this factor in future prospective studies is warranted. Further meta-analysis studies should be at least stratified for folate levels and gender to give more powerful and informative results. PMID:22943282

Proton-pump inhibitors and risk of fractures: an update meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, B; Huang, Y; Li, H; Sun, W; Liu, J

2016-01-01

To identify the relationship between proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of fracture, we conducted an update meta-analysis of observational studies. Results showed that PPI use was associated with a modestly increased risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture. Many studies have investigated the association of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) with fracture risk, but the results have been inconsistent. To evaluate this question, we performed a meta-analysis of relevant observational studies. A systematic literature search up to February 2015 was performed in PubMed. We combined relative risks (RRs) for fractures using random-effects models and conducted subgroup and stratified analyses. Eighteen studies involving a total of 244,109 fracture cases were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that PPI use could moderately increase the risk of hip fracture [RR = 1.26, 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) 1.16–1.36]. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among studies (p < 0.001; I 2 = 71.9 %). After limiting to cohort studies, there was also a moderate increase in hip fracture risk without evidence of study heterogeneity. Pooling revealed that short-term use (<1 year) and longer use (>1 year) were similarly associated with increased risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, a moderately increased risk of spine (RR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.38–1.82) and any-site fracture (RR = 1.33, 95 % CI 1.15–1.54) was also found among PPI users. In this update meta-analysis of observational studies, PPI use modestly increased the risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture, but no evidence of duration effect in subgroup analysis.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

Bactericidal/permeability increasing protein gene polymorphism and inflammatory bowel diseases: meta-analysis of five case-control studies.

PubMed

Fan, Lijuan; Fu, Guoning; Ding, Yuanyuan; Lv, Peng; Li, Hongyun

2017-03-01

Bactericidal/permeability increasing protein (BPI) gene polymorphisms have been extensively investigated in terms of their associations with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), with contradictory results. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate associations between BPI gene polymorphisms and the risk of IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC). Eligible studies from PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library databases were identified. Ten studies (five CD and five UC) published in five papers were included in this meta-analysis. G645A polymorphism was associated with a decreased risk of UC in allele model, dominant model, and homozygous model. Our data suggested that BPI G645A polymorphism was associated with a decreased risk of UC; the BPI G645A polymorphism was not associated with the risk of CD.

Matrix analysis and risk management to avert depression and suicide among workers

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Suicide is among the most tragic outcomes of all mental disorders, and the prevalence of suicide has risen dramatically during the last decade, particularly among workers. This paper reviews and proposes strategies to avert suicide and depression with regard to the mind body medicine equation hypothesis, metrics analysis of mental health problems from a public health and clinical medicine view. In occupational fields, the mind body medicine hypothesis has to deal with working environment, working condition, and workers' health. These three factors chosen in this paper were based on the concept of risk control, called San-kanri, which has traditionally been used in Japanese companies, and the causation concepts of host, agent, and environment. Working environment and working condition were given special focus with regard to tackling suicide problems. Matrix analysis was conducted by dividing the problem of working conditions into nine cells: three prevention levels (primary, secondary, and tertiary) were proposed for each of the three factors of the mind body medicine hypothesis (working environment, working condition, and workers' health). After using these main strategies (mind body medicine analysis and matrix analysis) to tackle suicide problems, the paper talks about the versatility of case-method teaching, "Hiyari-Hat activity," routine inspections by professionals, risk assessment analysis, and mandatory health check-up focusing on sleep and depression. In the risk assessment analysis, an exact assessment model was suggested using a formula based on multiplication of the following three factors: (1) severity, (2) frequency, and (3) possibility. Mental health problems, including suicide, are rather tricky to deal with because they involve evaluation of individual cases. The mind body medicine hypothesis and matrix analysis would be appropriate tactics for suicide prevention because they would help the evaluation of this issue as a tangible problem. PMID:21054837

Is non-cavitated proximal lesion sealing an effective method for caries control in primary and permanent teeth? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ammari, Michelle Mikhael; Soviero, Vera Mendes; da Silva Fidalgo, Tatiana Kelly; Lenzi, Michele; Ferreira, Daniele Masterson T P; Mattos, Cláudia Trindade; de Souza, Ivete Pomarico Ribeiro; Maia, Lucianne Cople

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effectiveness of sealing non-cavitated proximal caries lesions in primary and permanent teeth. Only controlled clinical trials and randomized controlled clinical trials that evaluated the effectiveness of sealing on non-cavitated proximal caries with a minimum follow-up of 12 months were included in the study. The primary outcome should be arrestment/progression of proximal caries evaluated by bitewing radiographs. A risk of bias evaluation based on the Cochrane Collaboration common scheme for bias was carried out for each study. The meta-analysis was performed on the studies considered low risk of bias and with pair-wise visual reading results through RevMan software. A comprehensive search was performed in the Systematic Electronic Databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Scopus, IBI Web of Science, Lilacs, SIGLE, and on website Clinical trials.gov, through until June 2013. From 967 studies identified, 10 articles and 3 studies with partial results were assessed for eligibility. However three articles were excluded and our final sample included 10 studies. According to the risk of bias evaluation, six studies were considered "high" risk of bias, and four "low" risk of bias. The forest plot of the meta-analysis showed low heterogeneity (I(2)=29%) and a favourable outcome for the Infiltrant. The chance of caries progression when this technique was used was significantly lower (p=0.002) compared with Placebo. Our results suggest that the technique of sealing non-cavitated proximal caries seems to be effective in controlling proximal caries in the short and medium term. Further long-term randomized clinical trials are still necessary to increase this evidence. Contemporary dentistry is focused in minimally invasive approaches that prevent the destruction of sound dental tissues next to carious lesions. This paper searches for evidence of the efficacy of sealing/infiltrating non-cavitated proximal caries in arresting caries progression both in permanent and primary teeth. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of spectral domain optical coherence tomography parameters in ocular hypertension, preperimetric, and early glaucoma

PubMed Central

Aydoğan, Tuğba; Akçay, Betül İlkay Sezgin; Kardeş, Esra; Ergin, Ahmet

2017-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic ability of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), macular, optic nerve head (ONH) parameters in healthy subjects, ocular hypertension (OHT), preperimetric glaucoma (PPG), and early glaucoma (EG) patients, to reveal factors affecting the diagnostic ability of spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) parameters and risk factors for glaucoma. Methods: Three hundred and twenty-six eyes (89 healthy, 77 OHT, 94 PPG, and 66 EG eyes) were analyzed. RNFL, macular, and ONH parameters were measured with SD-OCT. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity at 95% specificity was calculated. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the glaucoma risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of covariates on the diagnostic ability of parameters. Results: In PPG patients, parameters that had the largest AUC value were average RNFL thickness (0.83) and rim volume (0.83). In EG patients, parameter that had the largest AUC value was average RNFL thickness (0.98). The logistic regression analysis showed average RNFL thickness was a risk factor for both PPG and EG. Diagnostic ability of average RNFL and average ganglion cell complex thickness increased as disease severity increased. Signal strength index did not affect diagnostic abilities. Diagnostic ability of average RNFL and rim area increased as disc area increased. Conclusion: When evaluating patients with glaucoma, patients at risk for glaucoma, and healthy controls RNFL parameters deserve more attention in clinical practice. Further studies are needed to fully understand the influence of covariates on the diagnostic ability of OCT parameters. PMID:29133640

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Television advertisement format and the provision of risk information about prescription drug products.

PubMed

Glinert, Lewis H; Schommer, Jon C

2005-06-01

Considerable attention has been afforded to analyzing the content of and assessing consumers' reaction to print direct-to-consumer drug ads, but not so for televised ads. To determine whether advertisements with different risk severity and risk presentation would significantly affect viewers' (1) recall of information contained in the advertisement, (2) evaluation of the advertisement, and (3) perceptions of the advertised product's risks. Data were collected from a sample of 135 first-year pharmacy students at a Midwestern college of pharmacy. After viewing 1 of the 6 advertisements designed for this study, participants were asked to complete a self-administered survey. Chi-square and analysis of variance were used to analyze the data. A 2x3 between subjects design was used to test the effects of 2 levels of risk severity (high- vs low-risk severity) and 3 levels of risk presentation (original ad containing integrated risk message, deintegrated risk message/dual modality using male voice-over, deintegrated risk message/dual modality using female voice-over). Results of analysis of variance procedures revealed that deintegrating risk information by placing it at the end of the advertisement and the use of captions in addition to oral messages (dual modality) (1) improved the recall of general and specific side effect information, (2) led to a perception that the advertisement had greater informational content, (3) resulted in lower Advertisement Distraction, and (4) lessened cognitive and affective aspects of information overload for the advertisement containing the high-risk severity medication. However, this pattern of findings was not found for the low-risk severity medication. Alternative methods for presenting risk information in direct-to-consumer ads affected some aspects of information recall and advertisement evaluation, but were not shown to affect risk perceptions regarding the advertised products.

Suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders: a meta-analysis of the FDA database.

PubMed

Khan, Arif; Leventhal, Robyn M; Khan, Shirin; Brown, Walter A

2002-04-01

Previous reports of suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders have been inconsistent. Using the FDA database, we assessed suicide and suicide attempt risk among patients, participating in recent clinical trials evaluating new anti-anxiety medications, with diagnosis of panic disorder (PD), social anxiety disorder or social phobia (SP), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Overall, among 20076 participating anxious patients, 12 committed suicide and 28 attempted suicide. The annual suicide risk rate was 193/100000 patients and annual suicide attempt risk was 1350/100000 patients. Clinical trial data have limited applicability to clinical practice. Participants in clinical trials are a highly selected, nonrepresentative sample of the clinical population. A number of patients never complete clinical trials and thus data are based on a limited sub-sample. These trials were not primarily designed to assess suicide risk. Suicide risk in patients with anxiety disorders is higher than previously thought. Patients with anxiety disorders warrant explicit evaluation for suicide risk.

Probabilistic wind/tornado/missile analyses for hazard and fragility evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Y.J.; Reich, M.

Detailed analysis procedures and examples are presented for the probabilistic evaluation of hazard and fragility against high wind, tornado, and tornado-generated missiles. In the tornado hazard analysis, existing risk models are modified to incorporate various uncertainties including modeling errors. A significant feature of this paper is the detailed description of the Monte-Carlo simulation analyses of tornado-generated missiles. A simulation procedure, which includes the wind field modeling, missile injection, solution of flight equations, and missile impact analysis, is described with application examples.

Are Eating Disorders Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Nieto-Martínez, Ramfis; González-Rivas, Juan P; Medina-Inojosa, José R; Florez, Hermes

2017-11-22

Eating disorders (ED) affect energy intake modifying body fat depots. Prior evidence suggests that binge eating disorder (BED) and bulimia nervosa (BN) could increase the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D), while anorexia nervosa (AN) could reduce it. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate if ED are risk factors for T2D. Ten studies were selected out of 1057 screened. Meta-analysis of six studies with T2D as outcome is reported. Among cross-sectional studies, both BED (OR 3.69, 95% CI [1.12-12.12]) and BN (OR 3.45 [1.92-6.1]) increased the risk of T2D, while AN was not associated with lower risk (OR 0.87 [0.40-1.88]). Cohort studies showed increased risk of T2D with BN (RR 1.7 [1.2-2.5]), and decreased risk with AN (RR 0.71 [0.52-0.98]), but for BED the association was less clear (OR 3.34 [0.85-13.12]). Limitations of studies and recommendations for future research are presented.

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

PubMed

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.

PubMed

O'Byrne, Patrick

2008-03-01

Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.

Computer-based analysis of general movements reveals stereotypies predicting cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Philippi, Heike; Karch, Dominik; Kang, Keun-Sun; Wochner, Katarzyna; Pietz, Joachim; Dickhaus, Hartmut; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2014-10-01

To evaluate a kinematic paradigm of automatic general movements analysis in comparison to clinical assessment in 3-month-old infants and its prediction for neurodevelopmental outcome. Preterm infants at high risk (n=49; 26 males, 23 females) and term infants at low risk (n=18; eight males, 10 females) of developmental impairment were recruited from hospitals around Heidelberg, Germany. Kinematic analysis of general movements by magnet tracking and clinical video-based assessment of general movements were performed at 3 months of age. Neurodevelopmental outcome was evaluated at 2 years. By comparing the general movements of small samples of children with and without cerebral palsy (CP), we developed a kinematic paradigm typical for infants at risk of developing CP. We tested the validity of this paradigm as a tool to predict CP and neurodevelopmental impairment. Clinical assessment correctly identified almost all infants with neurodevelopmental impairment including CP, but did not predict if the infant would be affected by CP or not. The kinematic analysis, in particular the stereotypy score of arm movements, was an excellent predictor of CP, whereas stereotyped repetitive movements of the legs predicted any neurodevelopmental impairment. The automatic assessment of the stereotypy score by magnet tracking in 3-month-old spontaneously moving infants at high risk of developmental abnormalities allowed a valid detection of infants affected and unaffected by CP. © 2014 Mac Keith Press.

Are there effective interventions to prevent hospital-acquired Legionnaires' disease or to reduce environmental reservoirs of Legionella in hospitals? A systematic review.

PubMed

Almeida, Dejanira; Cristovam, Elisabete; Caldeira, Daniel; Ferreira, Joaquim J; Marques, Teresa

2016-11-01

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is recognized as an important hospital-acquired disease. Despite the several methods available, the optimal method to control hospital-acquired LD is not well established and their overall efficacy requires further evaluation. To systematically review all controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk of developing the disease and its effects on environmental colonization. A database search was performed through PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception-November 2014). Eligible studies included all controlled studies evaluating interventions to prevent hospital-acquired LD in patients at high risk or evaluating the effect on environmental colonization. Both individual and pooled risk estimates were reported using risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). There were no studies evaluating the risk reduction in hospital-acquired LD, but 4 studies evaluated the influence of copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light in the reduction of environmental reservoirs of Legionella. The meta-analysis showed a significant 95% risk reduction of Legionella positivity in environmental samples using copper-silver ionization (RR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01-0.17) and 97% risk reduction with ultraviolet light (RR, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.002-0.41). The best available evidence suggests that copper-silver ionization and ultraviolet light are effective in reducing Legionella positivity in environmental samples. Nevertheless, the low quality of evidence weakens the robustness of conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

PubMed

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-scale evaluation of remediation technologies for a contaminated site by applying economic input-output life cycle assessment: risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO2 emission.

PubMed

Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata

2011-09-15

A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Risks and Benefits of New Chemical Entities Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Subsequently Withdrawn From the US Market.

PubMed

Patriarca, Peter A; Van Auken, R Michael; Kebschull, Scott A

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk evaluations of drugs have been conducted since the introduction of modern regulatory systems more than 50 years ago. Such judgments are typically made on the basis of qualitative or semiquantitative approaches, often without the aid of quantitative assessment methods, the latter having often been applied asymmetrically to place emphasis on benefit more so than harm. In an effort to preliminarily evaluate the utility of lives lost or saved, or quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost and gained as a means of quantitatively assessing the potential benefits and risks of a new chemical entity, we focused our attention on the unique scenario in which a drug was initially approved based on one set of data, but later withdrawn from the market based on a second set of data. In this analysis, a dimensionless risk to benefit ratio was calculated in each instance, based on the risk and benefit quantified in similar units. The results indicated that FDA decisions to approve the drug corresponded to risk to benefit ratios less than or equal to 0.136, and that decisions to withdraw the drug from the US market corresponded to risk to benefit ratios greater than or equal to 0.092. The probability of FDA approval was then estimated using logistic regression analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that there was a 50% probability of FDA approval if the risk to benefit ratio was 0.121, and that the probability approaches 100% for values much less than 0.121, and the probability approaches 0% for values much greater than 0.121. The large uncertainty in these estimates due to the small sample size and overlapping data may be addressed in the future by applying the methodology to other drugs.

Uses of NHANES biomarker data for chemical risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background. Each year, the US NHANES measures hundreds of chemical biomarkers in samples from thousands of study participants. These biomarker measurements are meant to track trends and identify subsets of the US population with elevated exposures. There is now interest in further utilizing the NHANES data to inform chemical risk assessments. Objectives. This article highlights: 1) the extent to which NHANES chemical biomarker data have been evaluated, 2) groups of chemicals that have been studied, 3) data analysis approaches, and 4) opportunities for using these data to inform chemical risk assessments.Methods. A literature search (1999-2013) was performed to identify publications in which NHANES data were reported. Manual curation identified only the subset of publications that clearly utilized chemical biomarker data. This subset was evaluated for chemical groupings, data analysis approaches, and overall trends.Results. A small percentage of yearly NHANES-related publications reported on chemical biomarkers (8% yearly average). Of eleven chemical groups, metals/metalloids were most frequently evaluated (49%), followed by pesticides (9%) and environmental phenols (7%). Studies of multiple chemical groups were also common (8%). Publications linking chemical biomarkers to health metrics have increased dramatically in recent years. New studies are addressing challenges related to NHANES data interpretation in health risk contexts.Conclusions. This articl

Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Frost Risk model based primarily on freely distributed Earth Observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louka, Panagiota; Petropoulos, George; Papanikolaou, Ioannis

2015-04-01

The ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme climatic conditions, such as frost, is a significant tool in successful agricultural management and decision making. Nowadays, with the development of Earth Observation (EO) technology, it is possible to obtain accurately, timely and in a cost-effective way information on the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions, particularly over large and otherwise inaccessible areas. The present study aimed at developing and evaluating a frost risk prediction model, exploiting primarily EO data from MODIS and ASTER sensors and ancillary ground observation data. For the evaluation of our model, a region in north-western Greece was selected as test site and a detailed sensitivity analysis was implemented. The agreement between the model predictions and the observed (remotely sensed) frost frequency obtained by MODIS sensor was evaluated thoroughly. Also, detailed comparisons of the model predictions were performed against reference frost ground observations acquired from the Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA) over a period of 10-years (2000-2010). Overall, results evidenced the ability of the model to produce reasonably well the frost conditions, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. Implementation of our proposed frost risk model is based primarily on satellite imagery analysis provided nowadays globally at no cost. It is also straightforward and computationally inexpensive, requiring much less effort in comparison for example to field surveying. Finally, the method is adjustable to be potentially integrated with other high resolution data available from both commercial and non-commercial vendors. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, frost risk mapping, GIS, remote sensing, MODIS, Greece

Myopia and/or longer axial length are protective against diabetic retinopathy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fu, Yu; Geng, Dengfeng; Liu, Hua; Che, Huixin

2016-06-01

To evaluate the current evidence of the relationship between myopia, together with its structural and refractive component, and diabetic retinopathy (DR) risk. A systematic search was performed up to April, 2015. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated employing random-effects models. Three models were used to assess the association between myopia and risk of DR: axial length (AL) (per millimetre increase) and DR; myopia (myopia versus non-myopia) and DR; refractive error (RE) (per D decrease) and DR. Publication bias of the literature was evaluated using Begg's funnel plots and Egger's test. A total of 11 studies that met the predefined criteria were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, longer AL (per millimetre increase) was associa-ted with a significantly decreased risk of DR (combined OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.86; p < 0.001); myopic eyes (myopia versus non-myopia) showed a lower risk of DR (combined OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.85; p < 0.001). A greater degree of myopic RE (per D decrease) also revealed a significantly decreased risk of DR (combined OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93; p < 0.001). The sensitivity analyses and cumulative meta-analysis showed similar results. No publication bias was detected in any of the three models. This meta-analysis suggests that both myopic refraction and longer AL are associated with a lower risk of DR. Further studies are needed to determine exact mechanisms underpinning the protective effect of myopia against DR. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Is there still a role for computed tomography and bone scintigraphy in prostate cancer staging? An analysis from the EUREKA-1 database.

PubMed

Gabriele, D; Collura, D; Oderda, M; Stura, I; Fiorito, C; Porpiglia, F; Terrone, C; Zacchero, M; Guiot, C; Gabriele, P

2016-04-01

According to the current guidelines, computed tomography (CT) and bone scintigraphy (BS) are optional in intermediate-risk and recommended in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa). We wonder whether it is time for these examinations to be dismissed, evaluating their staging accuracy in a large cohort of radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. To evaluate the ability of CT to predict lymph node involvement (LNI), we included 1091 patients treated with RP and pelvic lymph node dissection, previously staged with abdomino-pelvic CT. As for bone metastases, we included 1145 PCa patients deemed fit for surgery, previously staged with Tc-99m methylene diphosphonate planar BS. CT scan showed a sensitivity and specificity in predicting LNI of 8.8 and 98 %; subgroup analysis disclosed a significant association only for the high-risk subgroup of 334 patients (P 0.009) with a sensitivity of 11.8 % and positive predictive value (PPV) of 44.4 %. However, logistic multivariate regression analysis including preoperative risk factors excluded any additional predictive ability of CT even in the high-risk group (P 0.40). These data are confirmed by ROC curve analysis, showing a low AUC of 54 % for CT, compared with 69 % for Partin tables and 80 % for Briganti nomogram. BS showed some positivity in 74 cases, only four of whom progressed, while 49 patients with negative BS progressed during their follow-up, six of them immediately after surgery. According to our opinion, the role of CT and BS should be restricted to selected high-risk patients, while clinical predictive nomograms should be adopted for the surgical planning.

Increased risk of tinnitus in patients with chronic kidney disease: A nationwide, population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Shih, Cheng-Ping; Lin, Hung-Che; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Hsiao, Po-Jen; Wang, Chih-Hung; Lee, Jih-Chin; Chien, Wu-Chien

2017-01-01

Tinnitus mostly results from central and peripheral auditory pathology. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major risk factor for cerebrovascular disease. However, no studies have evaluated the association between tinnitus and CKD. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk of tinnitus in patients with CKD. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2000 to 2010. We established a CKD group (n = 185,430) and a non-CKD comparison group (n = 556,290) to investigate the incidence of tinnitus. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate the effects of CKD on tinnitus risk. The results showed CKD significantly increased the risk of tinnitus (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% CI, 2.655-3.456, P<0.001). A subgroup analysis revealed the increase in risk of tinnitus is more in CKD patients with heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 9.975; 95% CI, 5.001-18.752) and diabetes mellitus (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.712; 95% CI, 2.856-5.007). Furthermore, compared to non-CKD patients, the risk of tinnitus was increased 4.586-fold (95% CI, 2.399-6.7) in CKD patients with dialysis and 2.461-fold (95% CI, 1.033-3.454) in CKD patients without dialysis. This study is the first to report that CKD is associated with an increased risk of tinnitus. Among CKD cohort, patients with dialysis are at a higher risk of tinnitus than those without dialysis.

Pesticide authorization in the EU-environment unprotected?

PubMed

Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

2015-12-01

Pesticides constitute an integral part of high-intensity European agriculture. Prior to their authorization, a highly elaborated environmental risk assessment is mandatory according to EU pesticide legislation, i.e., Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009. However, no field data-based evaluation of the risk assessment outcome, i.e., the regulatory acceptable concentrations (RACs), and therefore of the overall protectiveness of EU pesticide regulations exists. We conducted here a comprehensive meta-analysis using peer-reviewed literature on agricultural insecticide concentrations in EU surface waters and evaluated associated risks using the RACs derived from official European pesticide registration documents. As a result, 44.7 % of the 1566 cases of measured insecticide concentrations (MICs) in EU surface waters exceeded their respective RACs. It follows that current EU pesticide regulations do not protect the aquatic environment and that insecticides threaten aquatic biodiversity. RAC exceedances were significantly higher for insecticides authorized using conservative tier-I RACs and for more recently developed insecticide classes, i.e., pyrethroids. In addition, we identified higher risks, e.g., for smaller surface waters that are specifically considered in the regulatory risk assessment schemes. We illustrate the shortcomings of the EU regulatory risk assessment using two case studies that contextualize the respective risk assessment outcomes to field exposure. Overall, our meta-analysis challenges the field relevance and protectiveness of the regulatory environmental risk assessment conducted for pesticide authorization in the EU and indicates that critical revisions of related pesticide regulations and effective mitigation measures are urgently needed to substantially reduce the environmental risks arising from agricultural insecticide use.

Identifying prognostic intratumor heterogeneity using pre- and post-radiotherapy 18F-FDG PET images for pancreatic cancer patients.

PubMed

Yue, Yong; Osipov, Arsen; Fraass, Benedick; Sandler, Howard; Zhang, Xiao; Nissen, Nicholas; Hendifar, Andrew; Tuli, Richard

2017-02-01

To stratify risks of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PA) patients using pre- and post-radiotherapy (RT) PET/CT images, and to assess the prognostic value of texture variations in predicting therapy response of patients. Twenty-six PA patients treated with RT from 2011-2013 with pre- and post-treatment 18F-FDG-PET/CT scans were identified. Tumor locoregional texture was calculated using 3D kernel-based approach, and texture variations were identified by fitting discrepancies of texture maps of pre- and post-treatment images. A total of 48 texture and clinical variables were identified and evaluated for association with overall survival (OS). The prognostic heterogeneity features were selected using lasso/elastic net regression, and further were evaluated by multivariate Cox analysis. Median age was 69 y (range, 46-86 y). The texture map and temporal variations between pre- and post-treatment were well characterized by histograms and statistical fitting. The lasso analysis identified seven predictors (age, node stage, post-RT SUVmax, variations of homogeneity, variance, sum mean, and cluster tendency). The multivariate Cox analysis identified five significant variables: age, node stage, variations of homogeneity, variance, and cluster tendency (with P=0.020, 0.040, 0.065, 0.078, and 0.081, respectively). The patients were stratified into two groups based on the risk score of multivariate analysis with log-rank P=0.001: a low risk group (n=11) with a longer mean OS (29.3 months) and higher texture variation (>30%), and a high risk group (n=15) with a shorter mean OS (17.7 months) and lower texture variation (<15%). Locoregional metabolic texture response provides a feasible approach for evaluating and predicting clinical outcomes following treatment of PA with RT. The proposed method can be used to stratify patient risk and help select appropriate treatment strategies for individual patients toward implementing response-driven adaptive RT.

Dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zongyao; Li, Bingrong; Song, Xingxing; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-05-01

The associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression remain controversial. Thus, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate these associations. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang databases for relevant studies up to January 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. A total of 9 studies for dietary zinc intake and 3 studies for dietary iron intake were finally included in present meta-analysis. The pooled RRs with 95% CIs of depression for the highest versus lowest dietary zinc and iron intake were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.58-0.76) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.95), respectively. In subgroup analysis by study design, the inverse association between dietary zinc intake and risk of depression remained significant in the cohort studies and cross-sectional studies. The pooled RRs (95% CIs) for depression did not substantially change in the influence analysis and subgroup analysis by adjustment for body mass index (BMI). The present meta-analysis indicates inverse associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of FcεRIβ polymorphisms with risk of asthma and allergic rhinitis: Evidence based on 29 case-control studies.

PubMed

Guo, Huanhuan; Peng, Tao; Luo, Ping; Li, Huabin; Huang, Shuo; Li, Shuang; Zhao, Weidong; Zhou, Xuhong

2018-04-13

Purpose: Accumulating evidence has shown that allergic diseases are caused by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors, some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) existing in high-affinity IgE receptor β chain (FcεRIβ) are potential risk factors for allergic diseases. However, the results have been inconsistent and inconclusive due to the limited statistical power in individual study. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to systematically evaluate the association between FcεRIβ SNPs and allergic diseases risk. Methods: Eligible studies were collected from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, and WanFang databases. Pooled odd ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated to assess the strength of the relationships between five polymorphisms (E237G, -109 C/T, RsaI_in2, RsaI_ex7 and I181L) and the risk of allergic diseases by using five genetic models. In addition, the stability of our analysis was evaluated by publication bias, sensitivity and heterogeneity analysis. Results: Overall, a total of 29 case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis. We found that E237G (B vs. A: OR = 1.28, 95%CI = 1.06-1.53, P < 0.001, I 2 = 63.1%) and -109 C/T (BB vs. AA+AB: OR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.26-1.98, P < 0.001, I 2 = 66.4%) were risk factors for allergic diseases. Conclusion : Our meta-analysis suggests that polymorphisms in FcεRIβ, may be associated with the development of allergic diseases. ©2018 The Author(s).

Effect of magnesium added to local anesthetics for caudal anesthesia on postoperative pain in pediatric surgical patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis with Trial Sequential Analysis.

PubMed

Kawakami, Hiromasa; Mihara, Takahiro; Nakamura, Nobuhito; Ka, Koui; Goto, Takahisa

2018-01-01

Magnesium has been investigated as an adjuvant for neuraxial anesthesia, but the effect of caudal magnesium on postoperative pain is inconsistent. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the analgesic effect of caudal magnesium. We searched six databases, including trial registration sites. Randomized clinical trials reporting the effect of caudal magnesium on postoperative pain after general anesthesia were eligible. The risk ratio for use of rescue analgesics after surgery was combined using a random-effects model. We also assessed adverse events. The I2 statistic was used to assess heterogeneity. We assessed risk of bias with Cochrane domains. We controlled type I and II errors due to sparse data and repetitive testing with Trial Sequential Analysis. We assessed the quality of evidence with GRADE. Four randomized controlled trials (247 patients) evaluated the need for rescue analgesics. In all four trials, 50 mg of magnesium was administered with caudal ropivacaine. The results suggested that the need for rescue analgesia was reduced significantly by caudal magnesium administration (risk ratio 0.45; 95% confidence interval 0.24-0.86). There was considerable heterogeneity as indicated by an I2 value of 62.5%. The Trial Sequential Analysis-adjusted confidence interval was 0.04-5.55, indicating that further trials are required. The quality of evidence was very low. The rate of adverse events was comparable between treatment groups. Caudal magnesium may reduce the need for rescue analgesia after surgery, but further randomized clinical trials with a low risk of bias and a low risk of random errors are necessary to assess the effect of caudal magnesium on postoperative pain and adverse events. University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000025344.

Automated Risk Assessment for School Violence: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Barzman, Drew; Ni, Yizhao; Griffey, Marcus; Bachtel, Alycia; Lin, Kenneth; Jackson, Hannah; Sorter, Michael; DelBello, Melissa

2018-05-01

School violence has increased over the past ten years. This study evaluated students using a more standard and sensitive method to help identify students who are at high risk for school violence. 103 participants were recruited through Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (CCHMC) from psychiatry outpatient clinics, the inpatient units, and the emergency department. Participants (ages 12-18) were active students in 74 traditional schools (i.e. non-online education). Collateral information was gathered from guardians before participants were evaluated. School risk evaluations were performed with each participant, and audio recordings from the evaluations were later transcribed and manually annotated. The BRACHA (School Version) and the School Safety Scale (SSS), both 14-item scales, were used. A template of open-ended questions was also used. This analysis included 103 participants who were recruited from 74 different schools. Of the 103 students evaluated, 55 were found to be moderate to high risk and 48 were found to be low risk based on the paper risk assessments including the BRACHA and SSS. Both the BRACHA and the SSS were highly correlated with risk of violence to others (Pearson correlations>0.82). There were significant differences in BRACHA and SSS total scores between low risk and high risk to others groups (p-values <0.001 under unpaired t-test). In particular, there were significant differences in individual SSS items between the two groups (p-value <0.001). Of these items, Previous Violent Behavior (Pearson Correlation = 0.80), Impulsivity (0.69), School Problems (0.64), and Negative Attitudes (0.61) were positively correlated with risk to others. The novel machine learning algorithm achieved an AUC of 91.02% when using the interview content to predict risk of school violence, and the AUC increased to 91.45% when demographic and socioeconomic data were added. Our study indicates that the BRACHA and SSS are clinically useful for assessing risk for school violence. The machine learning algorithm was highly accurate in assessing school violence risk.

Criteria for the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) safety evaluation process for fragrance ingredients.

PubMed

Api, A M; Belsito, D; Bruze, M; Cadby, P; Calow, P; Dagli, M L; Dekant, W; Ellis, G; Fryer, A D; Fukayama, M; Griem, P; Hickey, C; Kromidas, L; Lalko, J F; Liebler, D C; Miyachi, Y; Politano, V T; Renskers, K; Ritacco, G; Salvito, D; Schultz, T W; Sipes, I G; Smith, B; Vitale, D; Wilcox, D K

2015-08-01

The Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) has been engaged in the generation and evaluation of safety data for fragrance materials since its inception over 45 years ago. Over time, RIFM's approach to gathering data, estimating exposure and assessing safety has evolved as the tools for risk assessment evolved. This publication is designed to update the RIFM safety assessment process, which follows a series of decision trees, reflecting advances in approaches in risk assessment and new and classical toxicological methodologies employed by RIFM over the past ten years. These changes include incorporating 1) new scientific information including a framework for choosing structural analogs, 2) consideration of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), 3) the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for dermal sensitization, 4) the respiratory route of exposure, 5) aggregate exposure assessment methodology, 6) the latest methodology and approaches to risk assessments, 7) the latest alternatives to animal testing methodology and 8) environmental risk assessment. The assessment begins with a thorough analysis of existing data followed by in silico analysis, identification of 'read across' analogs, generation of additional data through in vitro testing as well as consideration of the TTC approach. If necessary, risk management may be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Shiao, Michael

1990-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Priorities and prospect theory.

PubMed

Happich, M; Mazurek, B

2002-01-01

Whose preferences are to be used for cost-effectiveness analysis? It has been recommended that community preferences for health states are the most appropriate ones for use in a reference case analysis. However, critics maintain that persons are not able properly to judge a health state if they have not experienced the condition themselves. This problem is analyzed here in the framework of Prospect Theory. It can be argued that the differing reference points of patients and the general public are responsible for deviating results. In addition, we argue that risk attitudes with respect to health-related quality of life are an indicator of reference points. If patients and the general public refer to the same reference point, i.e., they have the same risk attitude, the hypothesis is that deviations no longer significantly differ. Evaluations of the health condition of tinnitus by 210 patients and 210 unaffected persons were compared. The Time Tradeoff and Standard Gamble methods were applied to elicit preferences. Risk attitude was measured with the question of whether participants would undergo a treatment that could either improve or worsen their health condition, both with an equal chance (five possible answers between "in no case" and "in any case"). Affected persons indicated significantly higher values for tinnitus-related quality of life according to the Standard Gamble method. The difference between Time Tradeoff values was less dramatic but still significant. In addition, nonaffected persons are more risk-averse than affected persons. However, differences in evaluations are not significant considering single risk groups (e.g., those who answered "in no case"). Prospect Theory is a reasonable framework for considering the question of whose preferences count. If this result can be generalized for other diseases as well, it allows the mathematical combination of "objective" evaluations by the general public with the illness experience of patients. These evaluations should be weighted with patients' risk attitudes, i.e., community preferences can be used if they are corrected for risk attitudes.

Safety assessment, detection and traceability, and societal aspects of genetically modified foods. European Network on Safety Assessment of Genetically Modified Food Crops (ENTRANSFOOD). Concluding remarks.

PubMed

Kuiper, H A; König, A; Kleter, G A; Hammes, W P; Knudsen, I

2004-07-01

The most important results from the EU-sponsored ENTRANSFOOD Thematic Network project are reviewed, including the design of a detailed step-wise procedure for the risk assessment of foods derived from genetically modified crops based on the latest scientific developments, evaluation of topical risk assessment issues, and the formulation of proposals for improved risk management and public involvement in the risk analysis process. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Knowledge and perceptions of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer risk in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Bradbury, Angela R.; Patrick-Miller, Linda; Egleston, Brian L.; Schwartz, Lisa A.; Sands, Colleen B.; Shorter, Rebecca; Moore, Cynthia W.; Tuchman, Lisa; Rauch, Paula; Malhotra, Shreya; Rowan, Brianne; van Decker, Stephanie; Schmidheiser, Helen; Bealin, Lisa; Sicilia, Patrick; Daly, Mary B.

2012-01-01

Background Evidence suggests early events might modify adult breast cancer risk and many adolescents learn of familial and genetic risks for breast cancer. Little is known about how adolescent girls understand and respond to breast cancer risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews with 11-19 year-old girls at high-risk and population-risk for breast cancer evaluated knowledge and perceptions of breast cancer risk and risk modification. Framework analysis and descriptive statistics were utilized to analyze open-ended responses. Risk group and age differences were evaluated by Fisher’s exact and McNemar’s tests. Results 54 girls (86% of invited), 35 high-risk (65%) and 19 population-risk (35%) completed interviews. The most frequently reported risk for breast cancer was family history/hereditary predisposition (66%). Only 17% of girls were aware of BRCA1/2 genes. The majority (76%) of high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, compared to 22% of population-risk girls (p=0.001). Half of girls reported that women can get breast cancer before 20 years old. The majority believe there are things women (70%) and girls (67%) can do to prevent breast cancer. Mother was the most frequently reported source of information for breast cancer among both high-risk (97%) and population-risk (89%) girls. Conclusion In this study, many high-risk girls perceive themselves to be at increased risk for breast cancer, and many girls believe that breast cancer can occur in teens. Yet, most girls believe there are things women and girls can do to prevent breast cancer. Research evaluating the impact of awareness and perceptions of breast cancer risk on psychosocial, health and risk behaviors is needed to develop strategies to optimize responses to cancer risk. PMID:23065030

Evaluation of a proposed expert system development methodology: Two case studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilstrap, Lewey

1990-01-01

Two expert system development projects were studied to evaluate a proposed Expert Systems Development Methodology (ESDM). The ESDM was developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and serve as a standard in the development of expert systems. It was agreed that the proposed ESDM must be evaluated before it could be adopted; therefore a study was planned for its evaluation. This detailed study is now underway. Before the study began, however, two ongoing projects were selected for a retrospective evaluation. They were the Ranging Equipment Diagnostic Expert System (REDEX) and the Backup Control Mode Analysis and Utility System (BCAUS). Both projects were approximately 1 year into development. Interviews of project personnel were conducted, and the resulting data was used to prepare the retrospective evaluation. Decision models of the two projects were constructed and used to evaluate the completeness and accuracy of key provisions of ESDM. A major conclusion reached from these case studies is that suitability and risk analysis should be required for all AI projects, large and small. Further, the objectives of each stage of development during a project should be selected to reduce the next largest area of risk or uncertainty on the project.

Computed tomography-based finite element analysis to assess fracture risk and osteoporosis treatment

PubMed Central

Imai, Kazuhiro

2015-01-01

Finite element analysis (FEA) is a computer technique of structural stress analysis and developed in engineering mechanics. FEA has developed to investigate structural behavior of human bones over the past 40 years. When the faster computers have acquired, better FEA, using 3-dimensional computed tomography (CT) has been developed. This CT-based finite element analysis (CT/FEA) has provided clinicians with useful data. In this review, the mechanism of CT/FEA, validation studies of CT/FEA to evaluate accuracy and reliability in human bones, and clinical application studies to assess fracture risk and effects of osteoporosis medication are overviewed. PMID:26309819

Consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Fang; Liu, Xiaoqin; Wang, Weijing; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-06-01

To date, associations between consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of inflammatory bowel disease have been a controversial subject. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the associations. A comprehensive search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure to identify all relevant studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects or fixed-effects models were calculated. Publication bias was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. A total of 14 case-control studies were included in this meta-analysis. On the basis of the highest versus the lowest analysis, consumption of vegetables was associated inversely with the risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) (OR=0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.88, n=9 studies), but not with Crohn's disease (CD) (OR=0.66, 95% CI 0.40-1.09, n=8 studies). Higher consumption of fruit was associated inversely with the risk of UC (OR=0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96, n=8 studies) and CD (OR=0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74, n=10 studies). For intake of vegetables and the risk of CD, subgroup analysis showed a significant association for studies carried out in Europe (OR=0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.57), but not in Asia (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.50-2.03). No significant publication bias was found for the analysis of intake of vegetables and the risk of UC, intake of fruit and the risk of UC, and intake of vegetables and the risk of CD. This meta-analysis indicates that consumption of vegetables and fruit might be associated inversely with the risk of UC and CD, and the results need to be further confirmed.

The PEDro scale had acceptably high convergent validity, construct validity, and interrater reliability in evaluating methodological quality of pharmaceutical trials.

PubMed

Yamato, Tie Parma; Maher, Chris; Koes, Bart; Moseley, Anne

2017-06-01

The Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale has been widely used to investigate methodological quality in physiotherapy randomized controlled trials; however, its validity has not been tested for pharmaceutical trials. The aim of this study was to investigate the validity and interrater reliability of the PEDro scale for pharmaceutical trials. The reliability was also examined for the Cochrane Back and Neck (CBN) Group risk of bias tool. This is a secondary analysis of data from a previous study. We considered randomized placebo controlled trials evaluating any pain medication for chronic spinal pain or osteoarthritis. Convergent validity was evaluated by correlating the PEDro score with the summary score of the CBN risk of bias tool. The construct validity was tested using a linear regression analysis to determine the degree to which the total PEDro score is associated with treatment effect sizes, journal impact factor, and the summary score for the CBN risk of bias tool. The interrater reliability was estimated using the Prevalence and Bias Adjusted Kappa coefficient and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool. Fifty-three trials were included, with 91 treatment effect sizes included in the analyses. The correlation between PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.88) after adjusting for reliability, indicating strong convergence. The PEDro score was inversely associated with effect sizes, significantly associated with the summary score for the CBN risk of bias tool, and not associated with the journal impact factor. The interrater reliability for each item of the PEDro scale and CBN risk of bias tool was at least substantial for most items (>0.60). The intraclass correlation coefficient for the PEDro score was 0.80 (95% CI 0.68-0.88), and for the CBN, risk of bias tool was 0.81 (95% CI 0.69-0.88). There was evidence for the convergent and construct validity for the PEDro scale when used to evaluate methodological quality of pharmacological trials. Both risk of bias tools have acceptably high interrater reliability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

PubMed

de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

2012-01-01

The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

A National Surveillance Survey on Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors: Suriname Health Study Protocol

PubMed Central

Smits, Christel CF; Jaddoe, Vincent WV; Hofman, Albert; Toelsie, Jerry R

2015-01-01

Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, the surveillance of risk factors has become an issue of major importance for planning and implementation of preventive measures. Unfortunately, in these countries data on NCDs and their risk factors are limited. This also prevails in Suriname, a middle-income country of the Caribbean, with a multiethnic/multicultural population living in diverse residential areas. For these reasons, “The Suriname Health Study” was designed. Objective The main objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of NCD risk factors, including metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and diabetes in Suriname. Differences between specific age groups, sexes, ethnic groups, and geographical areas will be emphasized. In addition, risk groups will be identified and targeted actions will be designed and evaluated. Methods In this study, several methodologies were combined. A stratified multistage cluster sample was used to select the participants of 6 ethnic groups (Hindustani, Creole, Javanese, Maroon, Chinese, Amerindians, and mixed) divided into 5 age groups (between 15 and 65 years) who live in urban/rural areas or the hinterland. A standardized World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance questionnaire was adapted and used to obtain information about demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and risk factors. Physical examinations were performed to measure blood pressure, height, weight, and waist circumference. Biochemical analysis of collected blood samples evaluated the levels of glucose, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. Statistical analysis will be used to identify the burden of modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors in the aforementioned subgroups. Subsequently, tailor-made interventions will be prepared and their effects will be evaluated. Results The data as collected allow for national inference and valid analysis of the age, sex, and ethnicity subgroups in the Surinamese population. A publication of the basic survey results is anticipated in mid-2015. Secondary results on the effect of targeted lifestyle interventions are anticipated in late 2017. Conclusions Using the data collected in this study, the national prevalence of NCD risk factors will be approximated and described in a diverse population. This study is an entry point for formulating the structure of NCD prevention and surveillance. PMID:26085372

Evaluating soil risks associated with severe wildfire and ground-based logging

Treesearch

Keith M. Reynolds; Paul F. Hessburg; Richard E. Miller; Robert T. Meurisse

2011-01-01

Rehabilitation and timber-salvage activities after wildfire require rapid planning and rational decisions. Identifying areas with high risk for erosion and soil productivity losses is important. Moreover, allocation of corrective and mitigative efforts must be rational and prioritized. Our logic-based analysis of forested soil polygons on the Okanogan-Wenatchee...

Guaranteed Student Loans: GAO High Risk Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comptroller General of the U.S., Washington, DC.

As part of a larger program to identify and analyze federal programs at high risk for waste, fraud, abuse and mismanagement, this publication presents an evaluation of the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP), formerly the Guaranteed Student Loan Program. The analysis argues that the program has not been successful in protecting the…

A novel approach to identify optimal metabotypes of elongase and desaturase activities in prevention of acute coronary syndrome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both metabolomic and genomic approaches are valuable for risk analysis, however typical approaches evaluating differences in means do not model the changes well. Gene polymorphisms that alter function would appear as distinct populations, or metabotypes, from the predominant one, in which case risk...

Aspirin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use reduce gastric cancer risk: A dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Xuan-Zhang; Chen, You; Wu, Jian; Zhang, Xi; Wu, Cong-Cong; Zhang, Chao-Ying; Sun, Shuang-Shuang; Chen, Wen-Jun

2017-01-17

The association between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and gastric cancer (GC) risk is controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chemopreventive effect of NSAIDs for GC. A literature search was performed for relevant studies using the PubMed and Embase database (up to March 2016). Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used as the effect measures. The dose-response analysis and subgroup analysis were also performed. Twenty-four studies were included. Our results indicated that NSAIDs could reduce GC risk (any NSAIDs: RR=0.78, 96%CI=0.72-0.85; aspirin: RR=0.70, 95%CI=0.62-0.80; non-aspirin NSAIDs: RR=0.86, 95%CI=0.80-0.94), especially for non-cardia GC risk. Moreover, the dose-response analysis indicated the risk of GC decreased by 11% and 5% for 2 years increment of any NSAIDs and aspirin use, respectively. There were nonlinear relationships between the frequency of any NSAIDs use and aspirin use and GC risk (P for non-linearity<0.01), with a threshold effect of 5 times/week. A monotonically decreasing trend was observed only for the frequency of less than 5 times/week. Our results indicate that NSAIDs is inversely associated with GC risk, especially for non-cardia GC risk. NSAIDs use may become a feasible approach to prevent GC.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Risk for Development of Pressure Ulcers: A Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Elizebeth; Vinodkumar, Sudhaya; Mathew, Silvia; Setia, Maninder Singh

2015-01-01

Background: Pressure ulcers (PUs) are prevalent in hospitalized patients; they may cause clinical, psychological, and economic problems in these patients. Previous studies are cross-sectional, have used pooled data, or cox-regression models to assess the risk for developing PU. However, PU risk scores change over time and models that account for time varying variables are useful for cohort analysis of data. Aims and Objectives: The present longitudinal study was conducted to compare the risk of PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients, and to evaluate the factors associated with the development of these ulcers over a period of time. Materials and Methods: We evaluated 290 hospitalized patients over a 4 months period. The main outcomes for our analysis were: (1) Score on the pressure risk assessment scale; and (2) the proportion of individuals who were at severe risk for developing PUs. We used random effects models for longitudinal analysis of the data. Results: The mean PU score was significantly higher in the nonsurgical patients compared with surgical patients at baseline (15.23 [3.86] vs. 9.33 [4.57]; P < 0.01). About 7% of the total patients had a score of >20 at baseline and were considered as being at high-risk for PU; the proportion was significantly higher among the nonsurgical patients compared with the surgical patients (14% vs. 4%, P = 0.003). In the adjusted models, there was no difference for severe risk for PU between surgical and nonsurgical patients (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01–12.80). An additional day in the ward was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of being at high-risk for PU (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.16–1.86). Conclusion: There were no significant differences between patients who were admitted for surgery compared with those who were not. An additional day in the ward, however, is important for developing a high-risk score for PU on the monitoring scale, and these patients require active interventions. PMID:26677269

Introducing Risk Management Techniques Within Project Based Software Engineering Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Port, Daniel; Boehm, Barry

2002-03-01

In 1996, USC switched its core two-semester software engineering course from a hypothetical-project, homework-and-exam course based on the Bloom taxonomy of educational objectives (knowledge, comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation). The revised course is a real-client team-project course based on the CRESST model of learning objectives (content understanding, problem solving, collaboration, communication, and self-regulation). We used the CRESST cognitive demands analysis to determine the necessary student skills required for software risk management and the other major project activities, and have been refining the approach over the last 5 years of experience, including revised versions for one-semester undergraduate and graduate project course at Columbia. This paper summarizes our experiences in evolving the risk management aspects of the project course. These have helped us mature more general techniques such as risk-driven specifications, domain-specific simplifier and complicator lists, and the schedule as an independent variable (SAIV) process model. The largely positive results in terms of review of pass / fail rates, client evaluations, product adoption rates, and hiring manager feedback are summarized as well.

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis

PubMed Central

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-01-01

Background It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. Aim To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. Design and setting An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013–2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014–2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. Method The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). Results In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. Conclusion There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. PMID:28347986

Evaluation of a complex intervention to improve primary care prescribing: a phase IV segmented regression interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

MacBride-Stewart, Sean; Marwick, Charis; Houston, Neil; Watt, Iain; Patton, Andrea; Guthrie, Bruce

2017-05-01

It is uncertain whether improvements in primary care high-risk prescribing seen in research trials can be realised in the real-world setting. To evaluate the impact of a 1-year system-wide phase IV prescribing safety improvement initiative, which included education, feedback, support to identify patients to review, and small financial incentives. An interrupted time series analysis of targeted high-risk prescribing in all 56 general practices in NHS Forth Valley, Scotland, was performed. In 2013-2014, this focused on high-risk non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in older people and NSAIDs with oral anticoagulants; in 2014-2015, it focused on antipsychotics in older people. The primary analysis used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact at the end of the intervention, and 12 months later. The secondary analysis used difference-in-difference methods to compare Forth Valley changes with those in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC). In the primary analysis, downward trends for all three NSAID measures that were existent before the intervention statistically significantly steepened following implementation of the intervention. At the end of the intervention period, 1221 fewer patients than expected were prescribed a high-risk NSAID. In contrast, antipsychotic prescribing in older people increased slowly over time, with no intervention-associated change. In the secondary analysis, reductions at the end of the intervention period in all three NSAID measures were statistically significantly greater in NHS Forth Valley than in NHS GGC, but only significantly greater for two of these measures 12 months after the intervention finished. There were substantial and sustained reductions in the high-risk prescribing of NSAIDs, although with some waning of effect 12 months after the intervention ceased. The same intervention had no effect on antipsychotic prescribing in older people. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Measuring Security Effectiveness and Efficiency at U.S. Commercial Airports

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

formative program evaluation and policy analysis to investigate current airport security programs. It identifies innovative public administration and...policy-analysis tools that could provide potential benefits to airport security . These tools will complement the System Based Risk Management framework if

Influence of risk grouping on therapeutic decisions in patients with anaplastic thyroid carcinoma.

PubMed

Sun, Chuanzheng; Li, Chao; Hu, Zedong; Li, Xiaojiang; He, Jiehua; Song, Ming; Li, Guojun; Zhang, Fenghua; Li, Qiuli

2015-04-01

We investigated prognostic factors in 42 anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) patients from a single institution over a 30-year period and explored the use of risk grouping to guide therapeutic decisions. Univariable and multivariable differences in overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test as well as Cox proportional hazards model. Risk grouping in making therapeutic decisions for ATC patients was explored. The 1- and 3-year OS rates were 28.6 % and 18.5 %, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that 4 pre-therapeutic factors of patients were related to poorer prognoses: age ≥ 55 years, white blood cell count ≥ 10.0 × 10(9)/L, blood platelet count ≥ 300.0 × 10(9)/L and advanced clinical tumor-node-metastasis stage. These factors were used to calculate the risk indices. Patients with total risk index scores of no more than 1 were considered to be in the low-risk group, and patients with scores ≥ 2 were considered to be in the high-risk group. The patients in the low-risk group had significantly better 1- and 3-year OS rates (90.9 % and 63.6 %, respectively) than those in the high-risk group (6.5 % and 3.2 %, respectively). Risk group and therapeutic regimen were the 2 factors that independently influenced survival according to multivariable analysis. Surgery that was combined with postoperative radiotherapy significantly benefited the patients in the low-risk group rather than the patients in the high-risk group. Risk grouping was a helpful tool of evaluating the prognoses and guiding the treatment of ATC patients.

Lycopene Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Yang, Hui-Hui; Liu, Yan; Zhou, Quan; Chen, Zi-Hua

2016-10-01

A number of epidemiological studies have explored the association between lycopene or lycopene-rich food intake and the risk of colorectal cancer, but the results of these studies have not been consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in the PubMed and EMBASE databases to quantitatively assess the association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the summary relative risk (RR) for highest versus lowest category indicated no significant association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer [RR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-1.10]. However, a significant inverse association was observed between lycopene consumption and the site of cancer in the colon (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81-0.96). We also found that the incidence of colon cancer and lycopene intake did not exhibit dose-response relationships. The Grades of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) quality in our study was very low. In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that lycopene consumption is not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Further research will be needed in this area to provide conclusive evidence.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

Insomnia and risk of dementia in older adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Almondes, Katie Moraes; Costa, Mônica Vieira; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro Fernandes; Diniz, Breno Satler

2016-06-01

There are cross-sectional evidences of an association between sleep disorders and cognitive impairment on older adults. However, there are no consensus by means of longitudinal studies data on the increased risk of developing dementia related to insomnia. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of incident all-cause dementia in individuals with insomnia in population-based prospective cohort studies. Five studies of 5.242 retrieved references were included in the meta-analysis. We used the generic inverse variance method with a random effects model to calculate the pooled risk of dementia in older adults with insomnia. We assessed heterogeneity in the meta-analysis by means of the Q-test and I2 index. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale The results showed that Insomnia was associated with a significant risk of all-cause dementia (RR = 1.53 CI95% (1.07-2.18), z = 2.36, p = 0.02). There was evidence for significant heterogeneity in the analysis (q-value = 2.4, p < 0.001 I2 = 82%). Insomnia is associated with an increased risk for dementia. This results provide evidences that future studies should investigate dementia prevention among elderly individuals through screening and proper management of insomnia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preventing Child Abuse: A Meta-Analysis of Parent Training Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundahl, Brad W.; Nimer, Janelle; Parsons, Bruce

2006-01-01

Objective: A meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the ability of parent training programs to reduce parents' risk of abusing a child. Method: A total of 23 studies were submitted to a meta-analysis. Outcomes of interest included parents' attitudes toward abuse, emotional adjustment, child-rearing skills, and actual abuse. Conclusions:…

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies

PubMed Central

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. Methods We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. Results The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was −1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (−0.18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (−1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or forgone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24892175

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

PubMed

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-03-01

To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The relationships of the level of response to alcohol and additional characteristics to alcohol use disorders across adulthood: a discrete-time survival analysis.

PubMed

Trim, Ryan S; Schuckit, Marc A; Smith, Tom L

2009-09-01

A low level of response (LR) to alcohol has been shown to relate to a higher risk for alcohol use disorders (AUDs). However, no previous research has examined the association between LR and the development of AUDs in the context of additional robust risk factors for AUDs. This study evaluated whether LR and other related characteristics predicted the occurrence of AUDs across adulthood using discrete-time survival analysis (DTSA). A total of 297 probands from the San Diego Prospective Study reported on the LR to alcohol, a family history (FH) of AUDs, the typical drinking quantity, the age of drinking onset, the body mass index and the age at the baseline (T1) assessment. Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were evaluated at the 10-year (T10), T15, T20, and T25 follow-ups. A low LR to alcohol predicted AUD occurrence over the course of adulthood even after controlling for the effects of other robust risk factors. Interaction effects revealed that the impact of FH on AUDs was only observed for subjects with high T1 drinking levels, and probands with high T1 drinking were at high risk for AUDs regardless of their age of onset. The findings illustrate that LR is a unique risk factor for AUDs across adulthood, and not simply a reflection of a broader range of risk factors. The continued investigation of how LR is related to AUD onset later in life will help inform treatment providers about this high-risk population, and future longitudinal evaluations will utilize DTSA to assess rates of AUD remission as well as the onset of drinking outcomes in adolescent samples.

The Relationships of the Level of Response to Alcohol and Additional Characteristics to Alcohol Use Disorders across Adulthood: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Trim, Ryan S.; Schuckit, Marc A.; Smith, Tom L.

2010-01-01

Background A low level of response (LR) to alcohol has been shown to relate to a higher risk for alcohol use disorders (AUDs). However, no previous research has examined the association between LR and the development of AUDs in the context of additional robust risk factors for AUDs. This study evaluated whether LR and other related characteristics predicted the occurrence of AUDs across adulthood using discrete-time survival analysis (DTSA). Methods 297 probands from the San Diego Prospective Study reported on the LR to alcohol, a family history (FH) of AUDs, the typical drinking quantity, the age of drinking onset, the body mass index and the age at the baseline (T1) assessment. Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were evaluated at the 10-year (T10), T15, T20, and T25 follow-ups. Results A low LR to alcohol predicted AUD occurrence over the course of adulthood even after controlling for the effects of other robust risk factors. Interaction effects revealed that the impact of FH on AUDs was only observed for subjects with high T1 drinking levels, and probands with high T1 drinking were at high risk for AUDs regardless of their age of onset. Conclusion The findings illustrate that LR is a unique risk factor for AUDs across adulthood, and not simply a reflection of a broader range of risk factors. The continued investigation of how LR is related to AUD onset later in life will help inform treatment providers about this high-risk population, and future longitudinal evaluations will utilize DTSA to assess rates of AUD remission as well as the onset of drinking outcomes in adolescent samples. PMID:19485971

Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

PubMed

Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

2011-03-01

The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Maternal social support and neighborhood income inequality as predictors of low birth weight and preterm birth outcome disparities: analysis of South Carolina Pregnancy Risk Assessment and Monitoring System survey, 2000-2003.

PubMed

Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Dhawain, Ashish; Hussey, James Robert; Luchok, Kathryn J

2010-09-01

Effects of income inequality on health and other social systems have been a subject of considerable debate, but only a few studies have used multilevel models to evaluate these relationships. The main objectives of the study were to (1) Evaluate the relationships among neighborhood income inequality, social support and birth outcomes (low birth weight, and preterm delivery) and (2) Assess variations in racial disparities in birth outcomes across neighborhood contexts of income distribution and maternal social support. We evaluated these relationships by using South Carolina Pregnancy Risk Assessment and Monitoring System (PRAMS) survey for 2000-2003 geocoded to 2000 US Census data for South Carolina. Multilevel analysis was used to simultaneously evaluate the association between income inequality (measured as Gini), maternal social relationships and birth outcomes (low birth weight and preterm delivery). The results showed residence in neighborhoods with medium levels of income inequality was independently associated with low birth weight (OR: 2.00; 95% CI 1.14-3.26), but not preterm birth; low social support was an independent risk for low birth weight or preterm births. The evidence suggests that non-Hispanic black mothers were at increased risks of low birth weight or preterm birth primarily due to greater exposures of neighborhood deprivations associated with low income and reduced social support and modified by unequal income distribution.

A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

2015-09-22

A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121-1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms.

How biological background assumptions influence scientific risk evaluation of stacked genetically modified plants: an analysis of research hypotheses and argumentations.

PubMed

Rocca, Elena; Andersen, Fredrik

2017-08-14

Scientific risk evaluations are constructed by specific evidence, value judgements and biological background assumptions. The latter are the framework-setting suppositions we apply in order to understand some new phenomenon. That background assumptions co-determine choice of methodology, data interpretation, and choice of relevant evidence is an uncontroversial claim in modern basic science. Furthermore, it is commonly accepted that, unless explicated, disagreements in background assumptions can lead to misunderstanding as well as miscommunication. Here, we extend the discussion on background assumptions from basic science to the debate over genetically modified (GM) plants risk assessment. In this realm, while the different political, social and economic values are often mentioned, the identity and role of background assumptions at play are rarely examined. We use an example from the debate over risk assessment of stacked genetically modified plants (GM stacks), obtained by applying conventional breeding techniques to GM plants. There are two main regulatory practices of GM stacks: (i) regulate as conventional hybrids and (ii) regulate as new GM plants. We analyzed eight papers representative of these positions and found that, in all cases, additional premises are needed to reach the stated conclusions. We suggest that these premises play the role of biological background assumptions and argue that the most effective way toward a unified framework for risk analysis and regulation of GM stacks is by explicating and examining the biological background assumptions of each position. Once explicated, it is possible to either evaluate which background assumptions best reflect contemporary biological knowledge, or to apply Douglas' 'inductive risk' argument.

Applying geologic sensitivity analysis to environmental risk management: The financial implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, D.T.

The financial risks associated with environmental contamination can be staggering and are often difficult to identify and accurately assess. Geologic sensitivity analysis is gaining recognition as a significant and useful tool that can empower the user with crucial information concerning environmental risk management and brownfield redevelopment. It is particularly useful when (1) evaluating the potential risks associated with redevelopment of historical industrial facilities (brownfields) and (2) planning for future development, especially in areas of rapid development because the number of potential contaminating sources often increases with an increase in economic development. An examination of the financial implications relating to geologicmore » sensitivity analysis in southeastern Michigan from numerous case studies indicate that the environmental cost of contamination may be 100 to 1,000 times greater at a geologically sensitive location compared to the least sensitive location. Geologic sensitivity analysis has demonstrated that near-surface geology may influence the environmental impact of a contaminated site to a greater extent than the amount and type of industrial development.« less

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

Electromagnetic Compatibility Analysis Group VA-H3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armanda, Carlos A.

2008-01-01

During the eight weeks working at NASA, I was fortunate enough to work with the Expendable Launch Vehicle's (ELV) Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) Team, who is responsible for the evaluation and analysis of any EMI risk an ELV mission might face. This group of people concern themselves with practically any form of electromagnetic interference that may risk the safety of a rocket, a mission, or even people. Taking this into consideration, the group investigates natural forms of interference, such as lightning, to manmade interferences, such as antennas.

Risks to Navigation at the Matagorda Ship Channel Entrance, Texas, Phase 2: Evaluation of Significant Risk Factors

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

jetties are deteriorating. As a result of this deterioration and lowered beach and dunes adjacent to the jetties, there are overwash occurrences during...the toe . An example slope stability analysis is presented in Figure 51. This figure shows a typical cross section or model properties (soil layers...depth caused by the ship passage. Any area of influence will be localized and, in light of a critical gradient analysis, near- toe scouring effects

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Regulatory Science in Professional Education.

PubMed

Akiyama, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

In the field of pharmaceutical sciences, the subject of regulatory science (RS) includes pharmaceuticals, food, and living environments. For pharmaceuticals, considering the balance between efficacy and safety is a point required for public acceptance, and in that balance, more importance is given to efficacy in curing disease. For food, however, safety is the most important consideration for public acceptance because food should be essentially free of risk. To ensure food safety, first, any hazard that is an agent in food or condition of food with the potential to cause adverse health effects should be identified and characterized. Then the risk that it will affect public health is scientifically analyzed. This process is called risk assessment. Second, risk management should be conducted to reduce a risk that has the potential to affect public health found in a risk assessment. Furthermore, risk communication, which is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk and risk management among risk assessors, risk managers, consumers, and other interested parties, should be conducted. Food safety is ensured based on risk analysis consisting of the three components of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. RS in the field of food safety supports risk analysis, such as scientific research and development of test methods to evaluate food quality, efficacy, and safety. RS is also applied in the field of living environments because the safety of environmental chemical substances is ensured based on risk analysis, similar to that conducted for food.

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2018-01-01

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Relationship between -889 C/T polymorphism in interleukin-1A gene and risk of chronic periodontitis: Evidence from a meta-analysis with new published findings

PubMed Central

da Silva, Felipe-Rodolfo-Pereira; Guimarães-Vasconcelos, Any-Carolina-Cardoso; de-Carvalho-França, Luiz-Felipe; di-Lenardo, David; Rodrigues, Luana-Silva; Barreto-do-Nascimento, Maria-Luísa-Lima

2017-01-01

Background Periodontitis results from an inflammatory response caused by accumulative microorganisms in periodontal sites. Several factors are involved in pathogenesis of periodontitis, for example the -889 C/T polymorphism in interleukin-1A gene. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between this polymorphism and risk of development of chronic periodontitis by a meta-analysis based in new published findings. Material and Methods Thereunto a review in literature was performed in the electronic biomedical and education databases (Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, MEDLINE and PubMed) to studies published before August 2, 2015, the abstracts were evaluated and the data extraction performed by two calibrated examiners. The calculations of the meta-analysis were obtained through statistical software Review Manager version 5.2 with calculation of Odds Ratio (OR), heterogeneity (I²) and Funnel plots with P <0.05. Results In overall, twenty-one case/control studies were selected with 2,174 patients with chronic periodontitis and 1, 756 controls. The meta-analysis showed T allele was associated with chronic periodontitis (OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.36, P = 0.0004) with decreased value to heterogeneity (I² = 15%, P = 0.28). TT genotype was associated to patients with chronic periodontitis (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.83, P = 0.01). No publication bias was found in this meta-analysis by asymmetry in Funnel plots. Conclusions This meta-analysis with 2,174 patients with chronic periodontitis and 1, 756 controls evidenced the -889 C/T polymorphism is associated to risk of development of chronic periodontitis with no significant value to heterogeneity to allelic evaluation. Key words:Alleles, odds ratio, periodontal disease, cytokines. PMID:27918732

Relationship between -889 C/T polymorphism in interleukin-1A gene and risk of chronic periodontitis: Evidence from a meta-analysis with new published findings.

PubMed

da Silva, F-R-P; Guimarães-Vasconcelos, A-C-C; de-Carvalho-França, L-F; di-Lenardo, D; Rodrigues, L-S; Barreto-do-Nascimento, M-L-L; Vasconcelos, D-F-P

2017-01-01

Periodontitis results from an inflammatory response caused by accumulative microorganisms in periodontal sites. Several factors are involved in pathogenesis of periodontitis, for example the -889 C/T polymorphism in interleukin-1A gene. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between this polymorphism and risk of development of chronic periodontitis by a meta-analysis based in new published findings. Thereunto a review in literature was performed in the electronic biomedical and education databases (Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, MEDLINE and PubMed) to studies published before August 2, 2015, the abstracts were evaluated and the data extraction performed by two calibrated examiners. The calculations of the meta-analysis were obtained through statistical software Review Manager version 5.2 with calculation of Odds Ratio (OR), heterogeneity (I²) and Funnel plots with P < 0.05. In overall, twenty-one case/control studies were selected with 2,174 patients with chronic periodontitis and 1, 756 controls. The meta-analysis showed T allele was associated with chronic periodontitis (OR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.36, P = 0.0004) with decreased value to heterogeneity (I² = 15%, P = 0.28). TT genotype was associated to patients with chronic periodontitis (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.83, P = 0.01). No publication bias was found in this meta-analysis by asymmetry in Funnel plots. This meta-analysis with 2,174 patients with chronic periodontitis and 1, 756 controls evidenced the -889 C/T polymorphism is associated to risk of development of chronic periodontitis with no significant value to heterogeneity to allelic evaluation.

WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rath, F.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-03: Risk in the Context of Medical Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samei, E.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology-specific risk assessment strategies and issues Evaluation of risk in the context of medical imaging and image quality E. Samei: Research grants from Siemens and GE.« less

Risk Evaluation of Business Continuity Management by Using Green Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen

IT disasters can be seen as the test of the ability in communities and firms to effectively protect their information and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. In this paper, we use a literature meta-analysis method to identify potential research directions in Green Business Continuity Management (GBCM). The concept and characteristics of GBCM are discussed. We analysis the connotation and the sources of green technology risk. An assessment index system is established from the perspectives of GBCM. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to assess the risks of green technology in Business Continuity Management.

A Prospective Analysis of Sexual Assault Perpetration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loh, Catherine; Gidycz, Christine; Lobo, Tracy; Luthra, Rohini

2005-01-01

This study prospectively evaluated perpetrator risk factors for sexual assault perpetration, including peer influences, beliefs and attitudes about sexuality, alcohol use, and token resistance. Perpetration of sexual assault was evaluated at three time periods: pretest, 3-month follow-up, and 7-month follow-up. Retrospective and prospective…

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Nicholas, Austin; Alibay, Farah; Parrish, Joseph

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

Association Between Cd Exposure and Risk of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Ju-Kun, Song; Yuan, Dong-Bo; Rao, Hao-Fu; Chen, Tian-Fei; Luan, Bo-Shi; Xu, Xiao-Ming; Jiang, Fu-Neng; Zhong, Wei-De; Zhu, Jian-Guo

2016-01-01

Abstract Several observational studies on the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer have yielded inconsistent results. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the correlation between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer. Relevant studies in PubMed and Embase databases were retrieved until October 2015. We compared the highest and lowest meta-analyses to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer. Summary estimates were obtained using a random-effects model. In the general population, high Cd exposure was not associated with increased prostate cancer (OR 1.21; 95% CI 0.91–1.64), whereas the combined standardized mortality ratio of the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer was 1.66 (95% CI 1.10–2.50) in populations exposed to occupational Cd. In addition, high D-Cd intake (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.96–1.20) and U-Cd concentration (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.48–1.55) among the general population was not related to the increased risk of prostate cancer. In the dose analysis, the summary relative risk was 1.07 (95% CI 0.73–1.57) for each 0.5 μg/g creatinine increase in U-Cd and 1.02 (95% CI 0.99–1.06) for each 10 μg/day increase of dietary Cd intake. However, compared with nonoccupational exposure, high occupational Cd exposure may be associated with the increased risk of prostate cancer. This meta-analysis suggests high Cd exposure as a risk factor for prostate cancer in occupational rather than nonoccupational populations. However, these results should be carefully interpreted because of the significant heterogeneity among studies. Additional large-scale and high-quality prospective studies are needed to confirm the association between Cd exposure and risk of prostate cancer. PMID:26871808

Evaluation of Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor for Major Complications in Patients Undergoing Aesthetic Surgery.

PubMed

Bamba, Ravinder; Gupta, Varun; Shack, R Bruce; Grotting, James C; Higdon, K Kye

2016-05-01

Diabetes mellitus has been linked with a variety of perioperative adverse events across surgical disciplines. There is a paucity of studies systematically examining risk factors, including diabetes, and complications of aesthetic surgical procedures. The purpose of this study was to compare incidence and type of complications between diabetic and non-diabetic patients undergoing various aesthetic surgical procedures, to identify specific procedures where diabetes significantly increases risk of complications, and to study diabetes as an independent risk factor for major complications following aesthetic surgery. A prospective cohort of 129,007 patients who enrolled into the CosmetAssure insurance program and underwent cosmetic surgical procedures between May 2008 and May 2013 were reviewed. Diabetes was evaluated as risk factor for major complications, requiring hospital admission, emergency room visit, or a reoperation within 30 days after surgery. Multivariate regression analysis was performed controlling for the effects of age, smoking, obesity, gender, type of procedures, and surgical facility. Overall, 2506 patients (1.9%) had a major complication. Diabetics had significantly more complications compared to non-diabetics (3.1% vs 1.9%, P < 0.01). In univariate analysis, infectious (1.1% vs 0.5%, P < 0.01) and pulmonary (0.3% vs 0.1%, P < 0.01) complications were significantly higher among diabetics. Notably, diabetics had higher risks of complication in body cases (4.3% vs 2.6%, P < 0.01) and specifically abdominoplasty (6.1% vs 3.0%, P < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, diabetes was found to be an independent risk factor of any complication (relative risk 1.31, P = 0.03) and infection (relative risk 1.70, P < 0.01). Diabetes is an independent risk factor of major complications, particularly infection, after aesthetic surgical procedures. © 2016 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

PubMed

Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

2017-12-01

Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, < 15), central line placement, and prophylactic heparin as relevant factors. The risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic, level III.

Uses of NHANES Biomarker Data for Chemical Risk Assessment: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

PubMed Central

DeWoskin, Robert S.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Pleil, Joachim D.; Phillips, Martin Blake; George, Barbara Jane; Christensen, Krista; Schreinemachers, Dina M.; Williams, Marc A.; Hubal, Elaine A. Cohen; Edwards, Stephen W.

2015-01-01

Background Each year, the U.S. NHANES measures hundreds of chemical biomarkers in samples from thousands of study participants. These biomarker measurements are used to establish population reference ranges, track exposure trends, identify population subsets with elevated exposures, and prioritize research needs. There is now interest in further utilizing the NHANES data to inform chemical risk assessments. Objectives This article highlights a) the extent to which U.S. NHANES chemical biomarker data have been evaluated, b) groups of chemicals that have been studied, c) data analysis approaches and challenges, and d) opportunities for using these data to inform risk assessments. Methods A literature search (1999–2013) was performed to identify publications in which U.S. NHANES data were reported. Manual curation identified only the subset of publications that clearly utilized chemical biomarker data. This subset was evaluated for chemical groupings, data analysis approaches, and overall trends. Results A small percentage of the sampled NHANES-related publications reported on chemical biomarkers (8% yearly average). Of 11 chemical groups, metals/metalloids were most frequently evaluated (49%), followed by pesticides (9%) and environmental phenols (7%). Studies of multiple chemical groups were also common (8%). Publications linking chemical biomarkers to health metrics have increased dramatically in recent years. New studies are addressing challenges related to NHANES data interpretation in health risk contexts. Conclusions This article demonstrates growing use of NHANES chemical biomarker data in studies that can impact risk assessments. Best practices for analysis and interpretation must be defined and adopted to allow the full potential of NHANES to be realized. Citation Sobus JR, DeWoskin RS, Tan YM, Pleil JD, Phillips MB, George BJ, Christensen K, Schreinemachers DM, Williams MA, Cohen Hubal EA, Edwards SW. 2015. Uses of NHANES biomarker data for chemical risk assessment: trends, challenges, and opportunities. Environ Health Perspect 123:919–927; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409177 PMID:25859901

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

PubMed Central

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

Common genetic variation at BARD1 is not associated with Breast cancer risk in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers

PubMed Central

Spurdle, Amanda B.; Marquart, Louise; McGuffog, Lesley; Healey, Sue; Sinilnikova, Olga; Wan, Fei; Chen, Xiaoqing; Beesley, Jonathan; Singer, Christian F; Dressler, Anne-Catharine; Gschwantler-Kaulich, Daphne; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Weitzel, Jeff; Lynch, Henry; Garber, Judy; Easton, Douglas F.; Peock, Susan; Cook, Margaret; Oliver, Clare T.; Frost, Debra; Conroy, Don; Evans, D. Gareth; Lalloo, Fiona; Eeles, Ros; Izatt, Louise; Davidson, Rosemarie; Chu, Carol; Eccles, Diana; Selkirk, Christina G.; Daly, Mary; Isaacs, Claudine; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Sinilnikova, Olga M.; Buecher, Bruno; Belotti, Muriel; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Barjhoux, Laure; Verny-Pierre, Carole; Lasset, Christine; Dreyfus, Hélène; Pujol, Pascal; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Rookus, Matti A.; Verhoef, Senno; Kriege, Mieke; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Ausems, Margreet G.E.M.; van Os, Theo A.; Wijnen, Juul; Devilee, Peter; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E.J.; Blok, Marinus J.; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Nevanlinna, Heli; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubiński, Jan; Huzarski, Tomasz; Byrski, Tomasz; Durocher, Francine; Couch, Fergus J.; Lindor, Noralane M.; Wang, Xianshu; Thomassen, Mads; Domchek, Susan; Nathanson, Kate; Caligo, MA; Jernström, Helena; Liljegren, Annelie; Ehrencrona, Hans; Karlsson, Per; Ganz, Patricia A.; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Tomlinson, Gail; Neuhausen, Susan; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

2011-01-01

Background Inherited BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations confer elevated breast cancer risk. Knowledge of factors that can improve breast cancer risk assessment in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers may improve personalized cancer prevention strategies. Methods A cohort of 5,546 BRCA1 and 2,865 BRCA2 mutation carriers was used to evaluate risk of breast cancer associated with BARD1 Cys557Ser. In a second non-independent cohort of 1,537 of BRCA1 and 839 BRCA2 mutation carriers, BARD1 haplotypes were also evaluated. Results The BARD1 Cys557Ser variant was not significantly associated with risk of breast cancer from single SNP analysis, with a pooled effect estimate of 0.90 (95%CI: 0.71-1.15) in BRCA1 carriers and 0.87 (95%CI: 0.59-1.29) in BRCA2 carriers. Further analysis of haplotypes at BARD1 also revealed no evidence that additional common genetic variation not captured by Cys557Ser was associated with breast cancer risk. Conclusion Evidence to date does not support a role for BARD1 variation, including the Cy557Ser variant, as a modifier of risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Impact Interactors of BRCA1/2 have been implicated as modifiers of BRCA1/2-associated cancer risk. Our finding that BARD1 does not contribute to this risk modification may focus research on other genes that do modify BRCA1/2-associated cancer risk. PMID:21393566

Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost-effective for RRSO at the 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10% levels of OC risk, respectively. Premenopausal RRSO appears to be extremely cost-effective at ≥4% lifetime OC risk, with ≥42.7 days gain in life expectancy if compliance with hormone replacement therapy is high. Current guidelines should be re-evaluated to reduce the RRSO OC risk threshold to benefit a number of at-risk women who presently cannot access risk-reducing surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Screening for thrombophilia in high-risk situations: a meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Olivia; Robertson, Lindsay; Twaddle, Sara; Lowe, Gordon; Clark, Peter; Walker, Isobel; Brenkel, Ivan; Greaves, Mike; Langhorne, Peter; Regan, Lesley; Greer, Ian

2005-10-01

Laboratory testing for the identification of heritable thrombophilia in high-risk patient groups have become common practice; however, indiscriminate testing of all patients is unjustified. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal and selective history-based thrombophilia screening relative to no screening, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, in women prior to prescribing combined oral contraceptives and hormone replacement therapy, women during pregnancy and patients prior to major orthopaedic surgery. A decision analysis model was developed, and data from meta-analysis, the literature and two Delphi studies were incorporated in the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for screening compared with no screening was calculated for each patient group. Of all the patient groups evaluated, universal screening of women prior to prescribing hormone replacement therapy was the most cost-effective (ICER 6824 pounds). In contrast, universal screening of women prior to prescribing combined oral contraceptives was the least cost-effective strategy (ICER 202,402 pounds). Selective thrombophilia screening based on previous personal and/or family history of venous thromboembolism was more cost-effective than universal screening in all the patient groups evaluated.

Using a Systematic Conceptual Model for a Process Evaluation of a Middle School Obesity Risk-Reduction Nutrition Curriculum Intervention: Choice, Control & Change

PubMed Central

Lee, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R.; Koch, Pamela

2012-01-01

Objective To use and review a conceptual model of process evaluation and to examine the implementation of a nutrition education curriculum, Choice, Control & Change, designed to promote dietary and physical activity behaviors that reduce obesity risk. Design A process evaluation study based on a systematic conceptual model. Setting Five middle schools in New York City. Participants 562 students in 20 classes and their science teachers (n=8). Main Outcome Measures Based on the model, teacher professional development, teacher implementation, and student reception were evaluated. Also measured were teacher characteristics, teachers’ curriculum evaluation, and satisfaction with teaching the curriculum. Analysis Descriptive statistics and Spearman’s Rho Correlation for quantitative analysis and content analysis for qualitative data were used. Results Mean score of the teacher professional development evaluation was 4.75 on a 5-point scale. Average teacher implementation rate was 73%, and student reception rate was 69%. Ongoing teacher support was highly valued by teachers. Teachers’ satisfaction with teaching the curriculum was highly correlated with students’ satisfaction (p <.05). Teachers’ perception of amount of student work was negatively correlated with implementation and with student satisfaction (p<.05). Conclusions and implications Use of a systematic conceptual model and comprehensive process measures improves understanding of the implementation process and helps educators to better implement interventions as designed. PMID:23321021

New arrows in the quiver for targeting care management: high-risk versus high-opportunity case identification.

PubMed

Bernstein, Richard H

2007-01-01

"Care management" purposefully obscures the distinctions between disease and case management and stresses their common features: action in the present to prevent adverse future outcomes and costs. It includes identifying a high-need population by referrals, screening, or data analysis, assessing those likely to benefit from interventions, intervening, evaluating the intervention, and adjusting interventions when needed. High-risk individuals can be identified using at least 9 techniques, from referrals and questionnaires to retrospective claims analysis and predictive models. Other than referrals, software based on the risk-adjustment methodology that we have adapted can incorporate all these methodologies. Because the risk adjustment employs extensive case mix and severity adjustment, it provides care managers with 3 innovative ways to identify not only high-risk individuals but also high-opportunity cases.

Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

PubMed

Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

2000-01-07

The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

2016-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

Risk-cost-benefit analysis of atrazine in drinking water from agricultural activities and policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfamichael, Aklilu A.; Caplan, Arthur J.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2005-05-01

This study provides an improved methodology for investigating the trade-offs between the health risks and economic benefits of using atrazine in the agricultural sector by incorporating public attitude to pesticide management in the analysis. Regression models are developed to predict finished water atrazine concentration in high-risk community water supplies in the United States. The predicted finished water atrazine concentrations are then used in a health risk assessment. The computed health risks are compared with the total economic surplus in the U.S. corn market for different atrazine application rates using estimated demand and supply functions developed in this work. Analysis of different scenarios with consumer price premiums for chemical-free and reduced-chemical corn indicate that if the society is willing to pay a price premium, risks can be reduced without a large reduction in the total economic surplus and net benefits may be higher. The results also show that this methodology provides an improved scientific framework for future decision making and policy evaluation in pesticide management.

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of bladder cancer: an updated meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Liu, Huan; Wang, Xing-Chun; Hu, Guang-Hui; Guo, Zhui-Feng; Lai, Peng; Xu, Liang; Huang, Tian-Bao; Xu, Yun-Fei

2015-11-01

This meta-analysis was conducted to assess the association between fruit and vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk. Eligible studies published up to August 2014 were retrieved both through a computer search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane library and through a manual review of references. The summary relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the highest versus the lowest intakes of fruits and vegetables were calculated with random-effects models. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also evaluated. Potential sources of heterogeneity were detected with metaregression. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 27 studies (12 cohort and 15 case-control studies) were included in this meta-analysis. The summary relative risks for the highest versus lowest were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72-0.96) for vegetable intake and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) for fruit intake. The dose-response analysis showed that the risk of bladder cancer decreased by 8% (relative risk=0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) and 9% (relative risk=0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-0.99) for every 200 g/day increment in vegetable and fruit consumption, respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results. Our findings suggest that intake of vegetables and fruits may significantly reduce the risk of bladder cancer. Further well-designed prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumption of Yogurt and the Incident Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Nine Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-03-22

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I² = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics.

The significance of OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in the risk assessment of gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yue, Hu; Shan, Liu; Bin, Lv

2018-02-19

Despite extensive research on the criteria for the assessment of gastric cancer risk using the Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA) and Operative Link on Gastritis/Intestinal-Metaplasia Assessment (OLGIM) systems, no comprehensive overview or systematic summary on their use is currently available. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of the OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in evaluating gastric cancer risk. We searched various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and Cochrane's library, for articles published before March 2017 on the association between OLGA/OLGIM stages and risk of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.30 and Stata 14.0, with the odds ratio, risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval as the effect measures. A meta-analysis of six case-control studies and two cohort studies, comprising 2700 subjects, was performed. The meta-analysis of prospective case-control studies demonstrated a significant association between the OLGA/OLGIM stages III/IV and gastric cancer. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score reflected heterogeneity in the case-control studies on OLGA. Subgroup analysis of high-quality (NOS score ≥ 5) studies showed an association between OLGA stage III/IV and increased risk of gastric cancer; the association was also high in the remaining study with low NOS score. The association between higher stages of gastritis defined by OLGA and risk of gastric cancer was significant. This correlation implies that close and frequent monitoring of such high-risk patients is necessary to facilitate timely diagnosis of gastric cancer.

MTHFR C677T gene polymorphism and head and neck cancer risk: a meta-analysis based on 23 publications.

PubMed

Niu, Yu-Ming; Deng, Mo-Hong; Chen, Wen; Zeng, Xian-Tao; Luo, Jie

2015-01-01

Conflicting results on the association between MTHFR polymorphism and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk were reported. We therefore performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Three online databases of PubMed, Embase, and CNKI were researched on the associations between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Twenty-three published case-control studies involving 4,955 cases and 8,805 controls were collected. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the relationship between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk. Sensitivity analysis, cumulative analyses, and publication bias were conducted to validate the strength of the results. Overall, no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and HNC risk was found in this meta-analysis (T versus C: OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.92-1.18; TT versus CC: OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 0.90-1.46; CT versus CC: OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.85-1.17; CT + TT versus CC: OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87-1.18; TT versus CC + CT: OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.98-1.26). In the subgroup analysis by HWE, ethnicity, study design, cancer location, and negative significant associations were detected in almost all genetic models, except for few significant risks that were found in thyroid cancer. This meta-analysis demonstrates that MTHFR C677T polymorphism may not be a risk factor for the developing of HNC.

The RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk: a meta-analysis based on 12 case-control studies.

PubMed

Du, Shu-Li; Geng, Ting-Ting; Feng, Tian; Chen, Cui-Ping; Jin, Tian-Bo; Chen, Chao

2014-01-01

The association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and glioma risk has been extensively studied. However, the results remain inconclusive. To further examine this association, we performed a meta-analysis. A computerized search of the PubMed and Embase databases for publications regarding the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma cancer risk was performed. Genotype data were analyzed in a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to assess the association. Sensitivity analyses, tests of heterogeneity, cumulative meta-analyses, and assessments of bias were performed in our meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis confirmed that risk with allele A is lower than with allele G for glioma. The A allele of rs6010620 in RTEL1 decreased the risk of developing glioma in the 12 case-control studies for all genetic models: the allele model (OR=0.752, 95%CI: 0.715-0.792), the dominant model (OR=0.729, 95%CI: 0.685-0.776), the recessive model (OR=0.647, 95%CI: 0.569-0.734), the homozygote comparison (OR=0.528, 95%CI: 0.456-0.612), and the heterozygote comparison (OR=0.761, 95%CI: 0.713-0.812). In all genetic models, the association between the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism and glioma risk was significant. This meta-analysis suggests that the RTEL1 rs6010620 polymorphism may be a risk factor for glioma. Further functional studies evaluating this polymorphism and glioma risk are warranted.

Consumption of Yogurt and the Incident Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Nine Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-01-01

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I2 = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics. PMID:28327514

The impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of developing prostate cancer.

PubMed

Vartolomei, Mihai Dorin; Kimura, Shoji; Ferro, Matteo; Foerster, Beat; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Briganti, Alberto; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2018-01-01

To investigate the impact of moderate wine consumption on the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). We focused on the differential effect of moderate consumption of red versus white wine. This study was a meta-analysis that includes data from case-control and cohort studies. A systematic search of Web of Science, Medline/PubMed, and Cochrane library was performed on December 1, 2017. Studies were deemed eligible if they assessed the risk of PCa due to red, white, or any wine using multivariable logistic regression analysis. We performed a formal meta-analysis for the risk of PCa according to moderate wine and wine type consumption (white or red). Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using Cochrane's Q test and I 2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's regression test. A total of 930 abstracts and titles were initially identified. After removal of duplicates, reviews, and conference abstracts, 83 full-text original articles were screened. Seventeen studies (611,169 subjects) were included for final evaluation and fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In the case of moderate wine consumption: the pooled risk ratio (RR) for the risk of PCa was 0.98 (95% CI 0.92-1.05, p =0.57) in the multivariable analysis. Moderate white wine consumption increased the risk of PCa with a pooled RR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.10-1.43, p =0.001) in the multi-variable analysis. Meanwhile, moderate red wine consumption had a protective role reducing the risk by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.999, p =0.047) in the multivariable analysis that comprised 222,447 subjects. In this meta-analysis, moderate wine consumption did not impact the risk of PCa. Interestingly, regarding the type of wine, moderate consumption of white wine increased the risk of PCa, whereas moderate consumption of red wine had a protective effect. Further analyses are needed to assess the differential molecular effect of white and red wine conferring their impact on PCa risk.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

Energetic dose: Beyond fire and flint?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linder, G.; Rattner, B.; Cohen, J.

2000-01-01

Nutritional and bioenergetic interactions influence exposure to environmental chemicals and may affect the risk realized when wildlife are exposed in the field. Here, food-chain analysis focuses on prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) and the evaluation of chemical risks associated with paraquat following 10-d dietary exposures. Reproductive effects were measured in 60-d trials that followed exposures to paraquat-tainted feed: control (untainted feed); 21 mg paraquat/kg feed; 63 mg paraquat/kg feed; and feed-restricted control (untainted feed restricted to 60% baseline consumption). Reproductive success was evaluated in control and treated breeding pairs, and a preliminary bioenergetics analysis was completed in parallel to derive exposure dose. Although reproductive performance differed among groups, feed-restriction appeared to be the dominant treatment effect observed in these 10-d feeding exposure/limited reproductive trials. Exposure dose ranged from 3.70-3.76 to 9.41-11.51 mg parquat/kg BW/day at 21 and 63 mg paraquat/kg feed stock exposures, respectively. Energetic doses as ug paraquat/kcal yielded preliminary estimates of energetic costs associated with paraquat exposure, and were similar within treatments for both sexes, ranging from 4.2-5.5 and 13.1-15.0 ug paraquat/kcal for voles exposed to 21 mg/kg feed stock and 63 mg/kg feed stock, respectively. Given the increasing likelihood that environmental chemicals will be found in wildlife habitat at 'acceptable levels', the critical role that wildlife nutrition plays in evaluating ecological risks should be fully integrated into the assessment process. Tools applied to the analysis of risk must gain higher resolution than the relatively crude methods we currently bring to the process.

Residual disease at the bronchial stump is positively associated with the risk of bronchoplerual fistula in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Shuangjiang; Fan, Jun; Zhou, Jian; Ren, Yutao; Shen, Cheng; Che, Guowei

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES Residual disease at the bronchial stump (RDBS) is regarded as an important factor possibly resulting in bronchopleural fistula (BPF) after lung cancer surgery, but this has not been confirmed. We conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of RDBS on BPF formation in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery. METHODS PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched for full-text articles that met our eligibility criteria. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) served as the summarized outcomes. Q-test and I2 statistic were used to evaluate the level of heterogeneity, determining the fixed-effect model or random-effect model for quantitative synthesis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the possible origins of heterogeneity. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's test. RESULTS A total of eight retrospective observational studies were included in our meta-analysis. In overall analysis, the pooled outcomes indicated that RDBS was significantly associated with BPF formation after lung cancer surgery (OR: 3.12; 95% CI: 1.72–5.64; P < 0.001). In subgroup analysis, the pooled outcomes revealed a significantly increased risk of post-pneumonectomy BPF in patients with RDBS (OR: 2.78; 95% CI: 1.06–7.28; P = 0.037). The subgroup analysis assessing the effects of RDBS on post-lobectomy BPF was given up due to the scarcity of available data. No heterogeneity was revealed within this meta-analysis. No evidence for publication bias was detected by Begg's test. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis indicates that RDBS is positively associated with the increased risk of BPF in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery. The further analysis also reveals an increased risk of post-pneumonectomy BPF in patients with RDBS. More accurate and comprehensive evidence should be collected and summarized in updated meta-analyses. PMID:26614527

Research on big data risk assessment of major transformer defects and faults fusing power grid, equipment and environment based on SVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lijuan; Yan, Haijun; Gao, Wensheng; Chen, Yun; Hao, Yongqi

2018-01-01

With the development of power big data, considering the wider power system data, the appropriate large data analysis method can be used to mine the potential law and value of power big data. On the basis of considering all kinds of monitoring data and defects and fault records of main transformer, the paper integrates the power grid, equipment as well as environment data and uses SVM as the main algorithm to evaluate the risk of the main transformer. It gets and compares the evaluation results under different modes, and proves that the risk assessment algorithms and schemes have certain effectiveness. This paper provides a new idea for data fusion of smart grid, and provides a reference for further big data evaluation of power grid equipment.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

PubMed

Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-03-08

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

PubMed Central

Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

2016-06-01

A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325.

Red and Processed Meat Consumption Increases Risk for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Dong, Jianming; Jiang, Shenghua; Shi, Wenyu; Xu, Xiaohong; Huang, Hongming; You, Xuefen; Liu, Hong

2015-01-01

Abstract The association between consumption of red and processed meat and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) remains unclear. We performed a meta-analysis of the published observational studies to explore this relationship. We searched databases in MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify observational studies which evaluated the association between consumption of red and processed meat and risk of NHL. Quality of included studies was evaluated using Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Random-effects models were used to calculate summary relative risk (SRR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). We identified a total of 16 case–control and 4 prospective cohort studies, including 15,189 subjects with NHL. The SRR of NHL comparing the highest and lowest categories were 1.32 (95% CI: 1.12–1.55) for red meat and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07–1.29) for processed meat intake. Stratified analysis indicated that a statistically significant risk association between consumption of red and processed meat and NHL risk was observed in case–control studies, but not in cohort studies. The SRR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04–1.18) for per 100 g/day increment in red meat intake and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.08–1.53) for per 50 g/day increment in processed meat intake. There was evidence of a nonlinear association for intake of processed meat, but not for intake of red meat. Findings from our meta-analysis indicate that consumption of red and processed meat may be related to NHL risk. More prospective epidemiological studies that control for important confounders and focus on the NHL risk related with different levels of meat consumption are required to clarify this association. PMID:26559248

Clinical evaluation incorporating a personal genome

PubMed Central

Ashley, Euan A.; Butte, Atul J.; Wheeler, Matthew T.; Chen, Rong; Klein, Teri E.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Dudley, Joel T.; Ormond, Kelly E.; Pavlovic, Aleksandra; Hudgins, Louanne; Gong, Li; Hodges, Laura M.; Berlin, Dorit S.; Thorn, Caroline F.; Sangkuhl, Katrin; Hebert, Joan M.; Woon, Mark; Sagreiya, Hersh; Whaley, Ryan; Morgan, Alexander A.; Pushkarev, Dmitry; Neff, Norma F; Knowles, Joshua W.; Chou, Mike; Thakuria, Joseph; Rosenbaum, Abraham; Zaranek, Alexander Wait; Church, George; Greely, Henry T.; Quake, Stephen R.; Altman, Russ B.

2010-01-01

Background The cost of genomic information has fallen steeply but the path to clinical translation of risk estimates for common variants found in genome wide association studies remains unclear. Since the speed and cost of sequencing complete genomes is rapidly declining, more comprehensive means of analyzing these data in concert with rare variants for genetic risk assessment and individualisation of therapy are required. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of a complete human genome in a clinical context. Methods An individual with a family history of vascular disease and early sudden death was evaluated. Clinical assessment included risk prediction for coronary artery disease, screening for causes of sudden cardiac death, and genetic counselling. Genetic analysis included the development of novel methods for the integration of whole genome sequence data including 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and 752 copy number variations. The algorithm focused on predicting genetic risk of genes associated with known Mendelian disease, recognised drug responses, and pathogenicity for novel variants. In addition, since integration of risk ratios derived from case control studies is challenging, we estimated posterior probabilities from age and sex appropriate prior probability and likelihood ratios derived for each genotype. In addition, we developed a visualisation approach to account for gene-environment interactions and conditionally dependent risks. Findings We found increased genetic risk for myocardial infarction, type II diabetes and certain cancers. Rare variants in LPA are consistent with the family history of coronary artery disease. Pharmacogenomic analysis suggested a positive response to lipid lowering therapy, likely clopidogrel resistance, and a low initial dosing requirement for warfarin. Many variants of uncertain significance were reported. Interpretation Although challenges remain, our results suggest that whole genome sequencing can yield useful and clinically relevant information for individual patients, especially for those with a strong family history of significant disease. PMID:20435227

Risk of renal failure with the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Caldeira, Daniel; Gonçalves, Nilza; Pinto, Fausto J; Costa, João; Ferreira, Joaquim J

2015-07-01

Vitamin K antagonists (VKA)-related nephropathy is a novel entity characterized by acute kidney injury related to International Normalized Ratio supratherapeutic levels. Non-vitamin K antagonists oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have a predictable dose-response relationship and an improved safety profile. We hypothesized that these drugs do not have an increased risk of incident renal failure, which may be detrimental for the use of NOACs. Systematic review and meta-analysis of phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Trials were searched through Medline, Cochrane Library and public assessment reports in August 2014. Primary outcome was renal failure. NOACs were evaluated against any comparator. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed by default, and pooled estimates were expressed as Risk Ratio (RR) and 95%CI. Heterogeneity was evaluated with I(2) test. Ten RCTs fulfilled inclusion criteria (one apixaban RCT, three dabigatran RCTs, and six rivaroxaban RCTs), enrolling 75 100 patients. Overall NOACs did not increase the risk of renal failure with an RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.88-1.05 compared with VKA or Low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH), without significant statistical heterogeneity (I(2)  = 3.5%). Compared with VKA, NOACs did not increase the risk of renal failure (RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.87-1.07; I(2)  = 17.8%; six RCTs). Rivaroxaban did not show differences in the incidence of renal failure compared with LMWH (RR 1.20, 95%CI 0.37-3.94; four trials), but there was an increased risk of creatinine elevation RR 1.25, 95%CI 1.08-1.45; I(2)  = 0%. NOACs had a similar risk of renal failure compared with VKA/LMWH in phase III RCTs. Post-marketing surveillance should be warranted. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rockfall risk evaluation using geotechnical survey, remote sensing data, and GIS: a case study from western Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolakopoulos, Konstantinos; Depountis, Nikolaos; Vagenas, Nikolaos; Kavoura, Katerina; Vlaxaki, Eleni; Kelasidis, George; Sabatakakis, Nikolaos

2015-06-01

In this paper a specific example of the synergistic use of geotechnical survey, remote sensing data and GIS for rockfall risk evaluation is presented. The study area is located in Western Greece. Extensive rockfalls have been recorded along Patras - Ioannina highway just after the cable-stayed bridge of Rio-Antirrio, at Klokova site. The rockfalls include medium- sized limestone boulders with volume up to 1.5m3. A detailed engineering geological survey was conducted including rockmass characterization, laboratory testing and geological - geotechnical mapping. Many Rockfall trajectory simulations were done. Rockfall risk along the road was estimated using spatial analysis in a GIS environment.

Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Felix Y., E-mail: ffeng@med.umich.edu; Department of Radiation Oncology, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Blas, Kevin

2013-05-01

Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64more » months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.« less

Physical activity is associated with reduced risk of esophageal cancer, particularly esophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Physical activity has been inversely associated with risk of several cancers. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the association between physical activity and risk of esophageal cancer (esophageal adenocarcinoma [EAC] and/or esophageal squamous cell carcinoma [ESCC]). Methods We conducted a comprehensive search of bibliographic databases and conference proceedings from inception through February 2013 for observational studies that examined associations between recreational and/or occupational physical activity and esophageal cancer risk. Summary adjusted odds ratio (OR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the random-effects model. Results The analysis included 9 studies (4 cohort, 5 case–control) reporting 1,871 cases of esophageal cancer among 1,381,844 patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated that the risk of esophageal cancer was 29% lower among the most physically active compared to the least physically active subjects (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89), with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 47%). On histology-specific analysis, physical activity was associated with a 32% decreased risk of EAC (4 studies, 503 cases of EAC; OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.55-0.85) with minimal heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). There were only 3 studies reporting the association between physical activity and risk of ESCC with conflicting results, and the meta-analysis demonstrated a null association (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.21-5.64). The results were consistent across study design, geographic location and study quality, with a non-significant trend towards a dose–response relationship. Conclusions Meta-analysis of published observational studies indicates that physical activity may be associated with reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Lifestyle interventions focusing on increasing physical activity may decrease the global burden of EAC. PMID:24886123

Association of glutathione S-transferase pi (GSTP1) Ile105Val polymorphism with the risk of skin cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Cheng-Fan; Ma, Tai; Zhou, Deng-Chuan; Shen, Tong; Zhu, Qi-Xing

2015-08-01

Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated the association of Glutathione S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) Ile105Val polymorphism with the risk of skin cancer. However, the results remain inconclusive. To derive a more precise estimation of the association between the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism and skin cancer risk, a meta-analysis was performed. A comprehensive search was conducted to identify the eligible studies. We used odds ratios (ORs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association of GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism with skin cancer risk. Thirteen case-control studies in nine articles, which included a total of 1504 cases and 2243 controls. Overall, we found that GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism was not associated with skin cancer risk. Furthermore, subgroup analysis by histological types showed that GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism was associated with risks of malignant melanoma under the dominant model (Val/Val + Val/Ile vs. Ile/Ile: OR 1.230, 95 % CI 1.017-1.488, P = 0.033). However, lack of association between GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism and BCC and SCC risk in all genetic models. Our meta-analysis suggested that the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism might be associated with increased risk of malignant melanoma in Caucasian population.

Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures.

PubMed

McDonough, Christine M; Colla, Carrie H; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N A; Tosteson, Tor D; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V; Lurie, Jonathan D; Bynum, Julie P W

2017-03-01

Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Observational cohort. Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna ("wrist") fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007-2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. © 2017 American Physical Therapy Association

Falling Down on the Job: Evaluation and Treatment of Fall Risk Among Older Adults With Upper Extremity Fragility Fractures

PubMed Central

Colla, Carrie H.; Carmichael, Donald; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Tosteson, Tor D.; Bell, John-Erik; Cantu, Robert V.; Lurie, Jonathan D.; Bynum, Julie P. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend fall risk assessment and intervention for older adults who sustain a fall-related injury to prevent future injury and mobility decline. Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how often Medicare beneficiaries with upper extremity fracture receive evaluation and treatment for fall risk. Design: Observational cohort. Methods: Participants were fee-for-service beneficiaries age 66 to 99 treated as outpatients for proximal humerus or distal radius/ulna (“wrist”) fragility fractures. -Participants were studied using Carrier and Outpatient Hospital files. The proportion of patients evaluated or treated for fall risk up to 6 months after proximal humerus or wrist fracture from 2007–2009 was examined based on evaluation, treatment, and diagnosis codes. Time to evaluation and number of treatment sessions were calculated. Logistic regression was used to analyze patient characteristics that predicted receiving evaluation or treatment. Narrow (gait training) and broad (gait training or therapeutic exercise) definitions of service were used. Results: There were 309,947 beneficiaries who sustained proximal humerus (32%) or wrist fracture (68%); 10.7% received evaluation or treatment for fall risk or gait issues (humerus: 14.2%; wrist: 9.0%). Using the broader definition, the percentage increased to 18.5% (humerus: 23.4%; wrist: 16.3%). Factors associated with higher likelihood of services after fracture were: evaluation or treatment for falls or gait prior to fracture, more comorbidities, prior nursing home stay, older age, humerus fracture (vs wrist), female sex, and white race. Limitations: Claims analysis may underestimate physician and physical therapist fall assessments, but it is not likely to qualitatively change the results. Conclusions: A small proportion of older adults with upper extremity fracture received fall risk assessment and treatment. Providers and health systems must advance efforts to provide timely evidence-based management of fall risk in this population. PMID:28340130

The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchin, Oliver; Jänicke, Britta; Meier, Fred; Scherer, Dieter; Ziegler, Felix

2016-04-01

Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept. For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main non-linear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of Military Field-Water Quality. Volume 7. Performance Evaluation of the 600-GPH Reverse Osmosis Water Purification Unit (ROWPU): reverse Osmosis (RO) Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

Data-for ASsessingHealthRISKS In Potential Theaters ~ of Operation forU,5. Mil-itary._orces. Jf-jr cLAss t:cAToN 9; r-.$ ’AGg UNCLASSIFIED Volume 7...Bypass, Potable-Water Disinfection,_ and Water-Quality Analysis Techniques; and Vol. 9, Data for Assessing Health Risks in Potential Theaters of Operation ...cleaning the RO elements, with objectives of improving solute rejection and reducing operating pressure. The most common method is to flush citric acid

Are iso-osmolar, as compared to low-osmolar, contrast media cost-effective in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization? An economic analysis.

PubMed

Hiremath, Swapnil; Akbari, Ayub; Wells, George A; Chow, Benjamin J W

2018-04-23

Contrast-induced acute kidney injury is a prominent complication following cardiac catheterization, though the risk has progressively decreased in recent times with appropriate risk stratification and use of safer contrast agents. Despite data supporting further lowering of risk with the iso-osmolar agent, iodixanol, uptake has lagged, perhaps due to increased upfront cost of this agent. We undertook an economic analysis to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy utilizing iodixanol compared to using a low-osmolar contrast agent. We created a Markov model to evaluate the two strategies, and included a differential relative risk of contrast-induced acute kidney injury, based on a systematic review of the literature. Downstream clinical events, including need for dialysis and mortality, were modeled using data from existing published literature. A third-party payer perspective was utilized for the analysis and presentation of the primary economic analysis. The strategy of using iodixanol dominated in both the low-risk and high-risk base case analyses. However, the difference was quite small in the low-risk scenario (lifetime cost: C$678,034 vs. C$678,059 and life expectancy: 19.80 vs. 19.72 years). The difference was more marked (life expectancy 15.65 vs. 14.15 years and cost C$680,989 vs. C$682,023) in the high-risk case analysis. This was robust across most of the variables tested in sensitivity analyses. The use of iodixanol, compared with low-osmolar contrast agents, for cardiac catheterization, results in a small benefit clinical outcomes, and in a savings in direct healthcare costs. Overall, our analysis supports the use of iodixanol for cardiac catheterization, especially in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury.

Scalp cooling with adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer and the risk of scalp metastases: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rugo, Hope S; Melin, Susan A; Voigt, Jeff

2017-06-01

The risk of scalp metastases in patients using scalp cooling for preservation of hair during chemotherapy has been a concern but is poorly described. A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies was undertaken to evaluate the effect of scalp cooling versus no scalp cooling on the risk of scalp metastasis in patients treated for breast cancer with chemotherapy. Electronic databases, journal specific, and hand searches of articles identified were searched. Patients were matched based on disease, treatment, lack of metastatic disease, and sex. A total of 24 full-text articles were identified for review. Of these articles, ten quantified the incidence of scalp metastasis with scalp cooling over time. For scalp cooling, 1959 patients were evaluated over an estimated mean time frame of 43.1 months. For no scalp cooling, 1238 patients were evaluated over an estimated mean time frame of 87.4 months. The incidence rate of scalp metastasis in the scalp cooling group versus the no scalp cooling group was 0.61% (95% CI 0.32-1.1%) versus 0.41% (95% CI 0.13-0.94%); P = 0.43. The incidence of scalp metastases was low regardless of scalp cooling. This analysis suggests that scalp cooling does not increase the incidence of scalp metastases.

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.; Limero, T. F.; Lam, C. W.; Billica, Roger (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

EPA Science Inventory

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

APPLICATION AND EVALUATION OF AN AGGREGATE PHYSICALLY-BASED TWO-STAGE MONTE CARLO PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR QUANTIFYING CHILDREN'S RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHLORPYRIFOS

EPA Science Inventory

Critical voids in exposure data and models lead risk assessors to rely on conservative assumptions. Risk assessors and managers need improved tools beyond the screening level analysis to address aggregate exposures to pesticides as required by the Food Quality Protection Act o...

Classifying Academically At-Risk First Graders into Engagement Types: Association with Long-Term Achievement Trajectories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Wen; Hughes, Jan N.; Liew, Jeffrey; Kwok, Oiman

2009-01-01

Based on a sample of 480 academically at-risk first graders, we used a cluster analysis involving multimethod assessment (i.e., teacher-report, peer-evaluation, and self-report) of behavioral and psychological engagement to identify subtypes of academic engagement. Four theoretically and practically meaningful clusters were identified and labeled…

Close Analysis of Texts with Structure (CATS): An Intervention to Teach Reading Comprehension to At-Risk Second Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Joanna P.; Kao, Jenny C.; Pao, Lisa S.; Ordynans, Jill G.; Atkins, J. Grant; Cheng, Rong; DeBonis, Daniel

2016-01-01

We developed and evaluated an intervention that teaches reading comprehension via expository text structure training to second graders in urban public schools at risk for academic failure. Fifty lessons on 5 basic text structures (sequence, comparison, causation, description, and problem-solution) were embedded in a social studies curriculum that…

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impac...

76 FR 44503 - Availability of a Risk Analysis Evaluating the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Status of Japan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-26

... Foot-and-Mouth Disease Status of Japan AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION... disease (FMD) status of Japan and the risk of susceptible animals and animal products from Japan harboring... Health Inspection again recognizes Japan as free of FMD and allows the importation of whole cuts of...

Revision of Viable Environmental Monitoring in a Development Pilot Plant Based on Quality Risk Assessment: A Case Study.

PubMed

Ziegler, Ildikó; Borbély-Jakab, Judit; Sugó, Lilla; Kovács, Réka J

2017-01-01

In this case study, the principles of quality risk management were applied to review sampling points and monitoring frequencies in the hormonal tableting unit of a formulation development pilot plant. In the cleanroom area, premises of different functions are located. Therefore a general method was established for risk evaluation based on the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) method to evaluate these premises (i.e., production area itself and ancillary clean areas) from the point of view of microbial load and state in order to observe whether the existing monitoring program met the emerged advanced monitoring practice. LAY ABSTRACT: In pharmaceutical production, cleanrooms are needed for the manufacturing of final dosage forms of drugs-intended for human or veterinary use-in order to protect the patient's weakened body from further infections. Cleanrooms are premises with a controlled level of contamination that is specified by the number of particles per cubic meter at a specified particle size or number of microorganisms (i.e. microbial count) per surface area. To ensure a low microbial count over time, microorganisms are detected and counted by environmental monitoring methods regularly. It is reasonable to find the easily infected places by risk analysis to make sure the obtained results really represent the state of the whole room. This paper presents a risk analysis method for the optimization of environmental monitoring and verification of the suitability of the method. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Signal Detection Analysis of Factors Associated with Diabetes among Semirural Mexican American Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanni, K. D.; Ahn, D. A.; Winkleby, M. A.

2013-01-01

Signal detection analysis was used to evaluate a combination of sociodemographic, acculturation, mental health, health care, and chronic disease risk factors potentially associated with diabetes in a sample of 4,505 semirural Mexican American adults. Overall, 8.9% of adults had been diagnosed with diabetes. The analysis resulted in 12 mutually…

Investigation on the Efficiency of Financial Companies in Malaysia with Data Envelopment Analysis Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng Siew, Lam; Kah Fai, Liew; Weng Hoe, Lam

2018-04-01

Financial ratio and risk are important financial indicators to evaluate the financial performance or efficiency of the companies. Therefore, financial ratio and risk factor are needed to be taken into consideration to evaluate the efficiency of the companies with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. In DEA model, the efficiency of the company is measured as the ratio of sum-weighted outputs to sum-weighted inputs. The objective of this paper is to propose a DEA model by incorporating the financial ratio and risk factor in evaluating and comparing the efficiency of the financial companies in Malaysia. In this study, the listed financial companies in Malaysia from year 2004 until 2015 are investigated. The results of this study show that AFFIN, ALLIANZ, APEX, BURSA, HLCAP, HLFG, INSAS, LPI, MNRB, OSK, PBBANK, RCECAP and TA are ranked as efficient companies. This implies that these efficient companies have utilized their resources or inputs optimally to generate the maximum outputs. This study is significant because it helps to identify the efficient financial companies as well as determine the optimal input and output weights in maximizing the efficiency of financial companies in Malaysia.

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Taking stock of decentralized disaster risk reduction in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grady, Anthony; Gersonius, Berry; Makarigakis, Alexandros

2016-09-01

The Sendai Framework, which outlines the global course on disaster risk reduction until 2030, places strong importance on the role of local government in disaster risk reduction. An aim of decentralization is to increase the influence and authority of local government in decision making. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence of the extent, character and effects of decentralization in current disaster risk reduction implementation, and of the barriers that are most critical to this. This paper evaluates decentralization in relation to disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, chosen for its recent actions to decentralize governance of DRR coupled with a high level of disaster risk. An analytical framework was developed to evaluate the various dimensions of decentralized disaster risk reduction, which necessitated the use of a desk study, semi-structured interviews and a gap analysis. Key barriers to implementation in Indonesia included: capacity gaps at lower institutional levels, low compliance with legislation, disconnected policies, issues in communication and coordination and inadequate resourcing. However, any of these barriers are not unique to disaster risk reduction, and similar barriers have been observed for decentralization in other developing countries in other public sectors.

Association of polypharmacy with fall risk among geriatric outpatients.

PubMed

Kojima, Taro; Akishita, Masahiro; Nakamura, Tetsuro; Nomura, Kazushi; Ogawa, Sumito; Iijima, Katsuya; Eto, Masato; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi

2011-10-01

To investigate the association of fall risk with comorbidities and medications in geriatric outpatients in a cross-sectional design.   A total of 262 outpatients (84 men and 178 women, mean age 76.2±6.8years) were evaluated. Physical examination, clinical histories and medication profile were obtained from each patient. History of falls in the past year, 22-item fall risk index, 13-point simple screening test for fall, and time interval of one-leg standing test were examined as markers of fall risk. On univariate analysis, older age, female sex, hypertension, osteoporosis, history of stroke, number of comorbidities, use of antihypertensives, aspirin, bisphosphonates, hypnotics and number of prescribed drugs were significantly associated with either of four indices. On multiple regression analysis, the number of drugs was associated with all of the four indices, independent of other factors associated in the univariate analysis. The association of number of drugs with fall risk indices was stepwise. In geriatric outpatients, polypharmacy rather than number of comorbidities was associated with fall risk. Prospective and intervention studies are needed to clarify the causal relationship between polypharmacy, comorbidities and fall risk. © 2011 Japan Geriatrics Society.

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

2013-11-01

Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

Evaluation of psychiatric and genetic risk factors among primary relatives of suicide completers in Delhi NCR region, India.

PubMed

Pasi, Shivani; Singh, Piyoosh Kumar; Pandey, Rajeev Kumar; Dikshit, P C; Jiloha, R C; Rao, V R

2015-10-30

Suicide as a public health problem is studied worldwide and association of psychiatric and genetic risk factors for suicidal behavior are the point of discussion in studies across different ethnic groups. The present study is aimed at evaluating psychiatric and genetic traits among primary relatives of suicide completer families in an urban Indian population. Bi-variate analysis shows significant increase in major depression (PHQ and Hamilton), stress, panic disorder, somatoform disorder and suicide attemptamong primary compared to other relatives. Sib pair correlations also reveal significant results for major depression (Hamilton), stress, suicide attempt, intensity of suicide ideation and other anxiety syndrome. 5-HTTLPR, 5-HTT (Stin2) and COMT risk alleles are higher among primary relatives, though statistically insignificant. Backward conditional logistic regression analysis show only independent variable, Depression (Hamilton) made a unique statistically significant contribution to the model in primary relatives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

PO*WW*ER mobile treatment unit process hazards analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richardson, R.B.

1996-06-01

The objective of this report is to demonstrate that a thorough assessment of the risks associated with the operation of the Rust Geotech patented PO*WW*ER mobile treatment unit (MTU) has been performed and documented. The MTU was developed to treat aqueous mixed wastes at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Albuquerque Operations Office sites. The MTU uses evaporation to separate organics and water from radionuclides and solids, and catalytic oxidation to convert the hazardous into byproducts. This process hazards analysis evaluated a number of accident scenarios not directly related to the operation of the MTU, such as natural phenomena damagemore » and mishandling of chemical containers. Worst case accident scenarios were further evaluated to determine the risk potential to the MTU and to workers, the public, and the environment. The overall risk to any group from operation of the MTU was determined to be very low; the MTU is classified as a Radiological Facility with low hazards.« less

Clinical evaluation of post-operative cerebral infarction in traumatic epidural haematoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Suojun; Wang, Sheng; Wan, Xueyan; Liu, Shengwen; Shu, Kai; Lei, Ting

2017-01-01

Patients with traumatic epidural haematoma, undergoing the prompt and correct treatment, usually have favourable outcomes. However, secondary cerebral infarction may be life-threatening condition, as it is difficult to be identified before neurological impairment occurs. To evaluate the clinical data of patients with traumatic EDH and assess potential risk factors for post-operative cerebral infarction. The clinical data of patients with traumatic EDH were collected and analysed retrospectively. The univariate analysis revealed 10 potential risk factors (the haematoma location, volume, the largest thickness and mid-line shift, basal cisterns compression, traumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage, pupil dilatation, pre-operative Glasgow Coma Scale score, ∆GCS and intraoperative brain pressure) for cerebral infarction with statistically significant difference. Of these factors, haematoma volume and basal cistern compression turned out to be the most significant risk factors through final multivariate logistic regression analysis. The findings of this study can provide predictive factors for development of cerebral infarction and information for clinical decision-making and future studies.

Risk factors for cardiovascular hospitalization in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Vaičiūnienė, Rūta; Kuzminskis, Vytautas; Ziginskienė, Edita; Petrulienė, Kristina

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for cardiovascular hospitalization in hemodialysis patients. A cross-sectional cohort analysis of risk factors during one census month (November) and one-year follow-up for cardiovascular hospitalization rates during 5 consecutive years (2002-2006) in all end-stage renal disease patients hemodialyzed in Kaunas region was carried out. During the census month, we collected data on patient's age and sex, disability status, comorbidities, anemia control, malnutrition and inflammation, calcium-phosphorus metabolism, and patient's compliance with prescribed medications. We analyzed 559 patients during 1163 patient-years of observation. Patients were considered as new patients every year (1520 cases). Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate time to first hospitalization. The mean number of cardiovascular hospitalizations was 0.31 per patient-year at risk, the total days of cardiovascular hospitalizations per patient-year at risk were 3.93, and the mean length of one hospitalization was 13.2±12.9 days. Cardiovascular diseases were the most frequent cause of hospitalization (25% of all hospitalizations). The relative risk of cardiovascular hospitalization increased by 1.03 for every year of age, by 1.7 for worse disability status, by 1.4 for nonadherence to medications, by 1.1 for every additional medication prescribed to the patient. Cardiovascular hospitalization risk was decreased by 0.99 with a 1-g/L rise in hemoglobin level. Older age, worse disability status, patient's noncompliance with medications, and higher number of medications used were associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular hospitalization. Higher hemoglobin level was associated with a lower risk for cardiovascular hospitalization.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Economic evaluation of occupational safety preventive measures in a hospital.

PubMed

Ramos, Delfina G; Arezes, Pedro M; Afonso, Paulo

2015-01-01

When an organization performs an integrated analysis of risks through its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the implications of the identified risks. Namely, the organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact for the organization of each of the preventive measures considered. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). The aim of this paper is to present a case study related to the application of the proposed economic evaluation methodology. An analysis of the work accidents in a hospital has been made. Three of the major types of accidents have been selected: needle stings, falls and excessive strain. Following the risk assessment, some preventive measures have been designed. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organization's perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). While the financial ratio is only advantageous in some cases, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly. It is important to consider external benefits to make decisions concerning the implementation of preventive measures in Occupational Health and Safety projects.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Cost-benefit analysis of biopsy methods for suspicious mammographic lesions; discussion 994-5.

PubMed

Fahy, B N; Bold, R J; Schneider, P D; Khatri, V; Goodnight, J E

2001-09-01

Stereotactic core biopsy (SCB) is more cost-effective than needle-localized biopsy (NLB) for evaluation and treatment of mammographic lesions. A computer-generated mathematical model was developed based on clinical outcome modeling to estimate costs accrued during evaluation and treatment of suspicious mammographic lesions. Total costs were determined for evaluation and subsequent treatment of cancer when either SCB or NLB was used as the initial biopsy method. Cost was estimated by the cumulative work relative value units accrued. The risk of malignancy based on the Breast Imaging Reporting Data System (BIRADS) score and mammographic suspicion of ductal carcinoma in situ were varied to simulate common clinical scenarios. Total cost accumulated during evaluation and subsequent surgical therapy (if required). Evaluation of BIRADS 5 lesions (highly suggestive, risk of malignancy = 90%) resulted in equivalent relative value units for both techniques (SCB, 15.54; NLB, 15.47). Evaluation of lesions highly suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ yielded similar total treatment relative value units (SCB, 11.49; NLB, 10.17). Only for evaluation of BIRADS 4 lesions (suspicious abnormality, risk of malignancy = 34%) was SCB more cost-effective than NLB (SCB, 7.65 vs. NLB, 15.66). No difference in cost-benefit was found when lesions highly suggestive of malignancy (BIRADS 5) or those suspicious for ductal carcinoma in situ were evaluated initially with SCB vs. NLB, thereby disproving the hypothesis. Only for intermediate-risk lesions (BIRADS 4) did initial evaluation with SCB yield a greater cost savings than with NLB.

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka

2006-07-01

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present anmore » example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)« less

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.

Enalapril versus losartan for adults with chronic kidney disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

He, Yuan-Mei; Feng, Li; Huo, Dong-Mei; Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liao, Yun-Hua

2013-09-01

Both enalapril and losartan are effective and widely used in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This review aimed to evaluate the benefits of enalapril and losartan in adults with CKD. PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched, without language limitations, for randomized controlled trials (RCT), in which enalapril and losartan were compared in adults with CKD. Standard methods, consistent with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, were used. Reviewer Manager software, ver. 5.2, was used for meta-analysis. Of 318 citations retrieved, 17 RCT (14 parallel-group and three cross-over) met our inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis for parallel RCT showed that the effects of enalapril and losartan on blood pressure, renal function and serum uric acid (UA) were similar. Meta-analysis indicated that patients taking enalapril had a higher risk of dry cough (risk ratio, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.11-7.48; P=0.03). Sensitivity analysis showed good robustness of these findings. Enalapril has similar effects to losartan on systemic blood pressure, renal function and serum UA in patients with CKD, but carries a higher risk of dry cough. Larger trials are required to evaluate the effects of these medications on clinical outcomes. © 2013 The Authors. Nephrology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Hern; Yang, Hui-Hua; Hsiao, Yu-Jung

2016-09-01

A breakdown analysis of civil aviation accidents worldwide indicates that the occurrence of runway excursions represents the largest portion among all aviation occurrence categories. This study examines the human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions, by applying a SHELLO model to categorize the human risk factors and to evaluate the importance based on the opinions of 145 airline pilots. This study integrates aviation management level expert opinions on relative weighting and improvement-achievability in order to develop four kinds of priority risk management strategies for airline pilots to reduce runway excursions. The empirical study based on experts' evaluation suggests that the most important dimension is the liveware/pilot's core ability. From the perspective of front-line pilots, the most important risk factors are the environment, wet/containment runways, and weather issues like rain/thunderstorms. Finally, this study develops practical strategies for helping management authorities to improve major operational and managerial weaknesses so as to reduce the human risks related to runway excursions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems

PubMed Central

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A.; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%. PMID:29854153

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Auditing Rules for Electronic Health Record Systems.

PubMed

Hedda, Monica; Malin, Bradley A; Yan, Chao; Fabbri, Daniel

2017-01-01

Healthcare organizations (HCOs) often deploy rule-based auditing systems to detect insider threats to sensitive patient health information in electronic health record (EHR) systems. These rule-based systems define behavior deemed to be high-risk a priori (e.g., family member, co-worker access). While such rules seem logical, there has been little scientific investigation into the effectiveness of these auditing rules in identifying inappropriate behavior. Thus, in this paper, we introduce an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of individual high-risk rules and rank them according to their potential risk. We investigate the rate of high-risk access patterns and minimum rate of high-risk accesses that can be explained with appropriate clinical reasons in a large EHR system. An analysis of 8M accesses from one-week of data shows that specific high-risk flags occur more frequently than theoretically expected and the rate at which accesses can be explained away with five simple reasons is 16 - 43%.

Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Cardiovascular Risk and Its Associated Factors in Health Care Workers in Colombia: A Study Protocol.

PubMed

Gamboa Delgado, Edna M; Rojas Sánchez, Lyda Z; Bermon Angarita, Anderson; Rangel Díaz, Yully Andrea; Jaraba Suárez, Silvia J; Serrano Díaz, Norma C; Vega Fernández, Evaristo

2015-07-30

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality worldwide, for this reason, they are a public health problem. In Colombia, cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of mortality, having a death rate of 152 deaths per 100,000 population. There are 80% of these cardiovascular events that are considered avoidable. The objective of the study is to determine the prevalence of the cardiovascular risk and its associated factors among the institution's workers in order to design and implement interventions in the work environment which may achieve a decrease in such risk. An analytical cross-sectional study was designed to determine the cardiovascular risk and its associated factors among workers of a high complexity health care institution. A self-applied survey will be conducted considering sociodemographic aspects, physical activity, diet, alcohol consumption, smoking, level of perceived stress, and personal and family history. In a second appointment, a physical examination will be made, as well as anthropometric measurements and blood pressure determination. Also, blood samples for evaluating total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and fasting blood sugar will be taken. A ten-year global risk for cardiovascular disease will be determined using the Framingham score. A descriptive analysis of the population's characteristics and a stratified analysis by sex, age, and occupation will be made. Bivariate and multivariate analysis will be made using logistic regression models to evaluate the association between cardiovascular risk and the independent variables. The research protocol was approved by the Scientific and Technical Committee and the Ethics Committee on Research of the Fundación Cardiovascular de Colombia. The protocol has already received funding and the enrollment phase will begin in the coming months. The results of this study will give the foundation for the design, implementation, and evaluation of a program based on promoting healthy lifestyles, such as performing regular physical activity and healthy food intake in order to avoid and/or control the cardiovascular risk in the workers of a high complexity health care institution.

Maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, pre-pregnancy obesity and the risk of cryptorchidism: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Lin; Wang, Xing-Huan; Zheng, Xin-Min; Liu, Tong-Zu; Zhang, Wei-Bin; Zheng, Hang; Chen, Mi-Feng

2015-01-01

Maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity are thought to increase the risk of cryptorchidism in newborn males, but the evidence is inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on the association between maternal gestational smoking, diabetes, alcohol drinking, and pre-pregnancy obesity and the risk of cryptorchidism. Articles were retrieved by searching PubMed and ScienceDirect, and the meta-analysis was conducted using Stata/SE 12.0 software. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the influence of confounding variables. We selected 32 articles, including 12 case-control, five nested case-control, and 15 cohort studies. The meta-analysis showed that maternal smoking (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11-1.23) or diabetes (OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.00-1.46) during pregnancy were associated with increased risk of cryptorchidism. Overall, the association between maternal alcohol drinking (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87-1.07), pre-pregnancy body mass index (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and risk of cryptorchidism were not statistically significant. Additional analysis showed reduced risk (OR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.96) of cryptorchidism with moderate alcohol drinking during pregnancy. No dose-response relationship was observed for increments in body mass index in the risk of cryptorchidism. Sensitivity analysis revealed an unstable result for the association between maternal diabetes, alcohol drinking and cryptorchidism. Moderate heterogeneity was detected in studies of the effect of maternal alcohol drinking and diabetes. No publication bias was detected. Maternal gestational smoking, but not maternal pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity, was associated with increased cryptorchidism risk in the offspring. Moderate alcohol drinking may reduce the risk of cryptorchidism while gestational diabetes may be a risk factor, but further studies are needed to verify this.

Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S

2018-03-12

This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p < 0.001). Studies that reported risk ratio (RR) as the outcome (seven studies [n = 64,975]) suggested that depression was associated with 39% increase in fracture risk (RR = 1.39, 95% CI, 1.19-1.62, p < 0.001). Among studies that reported hip bone mineral density (BMD) as an outcome (eight studies [n = 15,442]), depression was associated with a reduced mean annual bone loss rate of 0.35% (0.18-0.53%, p < 0.001). The increased risk of fracture and bone loss associated with depression was consistent in all meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.

Risk of gastrointestinal bleeding with direct oral anticoagulants: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Burr, Nick; Lummis, Katie; Sood, Ruchit; Kane, John Samuel; Corp, Aaron; Subramanian, Venkataraman

2017-02-01

Direct oral anticoagulants are increasingly used for a wide range of indications. However, data are conflicting about the risk of major gastrointestinal bleeding with these drugs. We compared the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding with direct oral anticoagulants, warfarin, and low-molecular-weight heparin. For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE and Embase from database inception to April 1, 2016, for prospective and retrospective studies that reported the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding with use of a direct oral anticoagulant compared with warfarin or low-molecular-weight heparin for all indications. We also searched the Cochrane Library for systematic reviews and assessment evaluations, the National Health Service (UK) Economic Evaluation Database, and ISI Web of Science for conference abstracts and proceedings (up to April 1, 2016). The primary outcome was the incidence of major gastrointestinal bleeding, with all gastrointestinal bleeding as a secondary outcome. We did a Bayesian network meta-analysis to produce incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). We identified 38 eligible articles, of which 31 were included in the primary analysis, including 287 692 patients exposed to 230 090 years of anticoagulant drugs. The risk of major gastrointestinal bleeding with direct oral anticoagulants did not differ from that with warfarin or low-molecular-weight heparin (factor Xa vs warfarin IRR 0·78 [95% CrI 0·47-1·08]; warfarin vs dabigatran 0·88 [0·59-1·36]; factor Xa vs low-molecular-weight heparin 1·02 [0·42-2·70]; and low-molecular-weight heparin vs dabigatran 0·67 [0·20-1·82]). In the secondary analysis, factor Xa inhibitors were associated with a reduced risk of all severities of gastrointestinal bleeding compared with warfarin (0·25 [0.07-0.76]) or dabigatran (0.24 [0.07-0.77]). Our findings show no increase in risk of major gastrointestinal bleeding with direct oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin or low-molecular-weight heparin. These findings support the continued use of direct oral anticoagulants. Leeds Teaching Hospitals Charitable Foundation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Large-scale retrospective evaluation of regulated liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry bioanalysis projects using different total error approaches.

PubMed

Tan, Aimin; Saffaj, Taoufiq; Musuku, Adrien; Awaiye, Kayode; Ihssane, Bouchaib; Jhilal, Fayçal; Sosse, Saad Alaoui; Trabelsi, Fethi

2015-03-01

The current approach in regulated LC-MS bioanalysis, which evaluates the precision and trueness of an assay separately, has long been criticized for inadequate balancing of lab-customer risks. Accordingly, different total error approaches have been proposed. The aims of this research were to evaluate the aforementioned risks in reality and the difference among four common total error approaches (β-expectation, β-content, uncertainty, and risk profile) through retrospective analysis of regulated LC-MS projects. Twenty-eight projects (14 validations and 14 productions) were randomly selected from two GLP bioanalytical laboratories, which represent a wide variety of assays. The results show that the risk of accepting unacceptable batches did exist with the current approach (9% and 4% of the evaluated QC levels failed for validation and production, respectively). The fact that the risk was not wide-spread was only because the precision and bias of modern LC-MS assays are usually much better than the minimum regulatory requirements. Despite minor differences in magnitude, very similar accuracy profiles and/or conclusions were obtained from the four different total error approaches. High correlation was even observed in the width of bias intervals. For example, the mean width of SFSTP's β-expectation is 1.10-fold (CV=7.6%) of that of Saffaj-Ihssane's uncertainty approach, while the latter is 1.13-fold (CV=6.0%) of that of Hoffman-Kringle's β-content approach. To conclude, the risk of accepting unacceptable batches was real with the current approach, suggesting that total error approaches should be used instead. Moreover, any of the four total error approaches may be used because of their overall similarity. Lastly, the difficulties/obstacles associated with the application of total error approaches in routine analysis and their desirable future improvements are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Osteoporosis Screening Strategies for Men

PubMed Central

Nayak, Smita; Greenspan, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Osteoporosis affects many men, with significant morbidity and mortality. However, the best osteoporosis screening strategies for men are unknown. We developed an individual-level state-transition cost-effectiveness model with a lifetime time horizon to identify the cost-effectiveness of different osteoporosis screening strategies for U.S. men involving various screening tests (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA); the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST); or a fracture risk assessment strategy using age, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), and Vertebral Fracture Assessment (VFA)); screening initiation ages (50, 60, 70, or 80); and repeat screening intervals (5 years or 10 years). In base-case analysis, no screening was a less effective option than all other strategies evaluated; furthermore, no screening was more expensive than all strategies that involved screening with DXA or the OST risk assessment instrument, and thus no screening was “dominated” by screening with DXA or OST at all evaluated screening initiation ages and repeat screening intervals. Screening strategies that most frequently appeared as most cost-effective in base-case analysis and one-way sensitivity analyses when assuming willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY or $100,000/QALY included screening initiation at age 50 with the fracture risk assessment strategy and repeat screening every 10 years; screening initiation at age 50 with fracture risk assessment and repeat screening every 5 years; and screening initiation at age 50 with DXA and repeat screening every 5 years. In conclusion, expansion of osteoporosis screening for U.S. men to initiate routine screening at age 50 or 60 would be expected to be effective and of good value for improving health outcomes. A fracture risk assessment strategy using variables of age, femoral neck BMD, and VFA is likely to be the most effective of the evaluated strategies within accepted cost-effectiveness parameters. DXA and OST are also reasonable screening options, albeit likely slightly less effective than the evaluated fracture risk assessment strategy. PMID:26751984

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

[Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

2013-02-01

Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

2017-10-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

Knee Extensor Strength and Risk of Structural, Symptomatic, and Functional Decline in Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Culvenor, Adam G; Ruhdorfer, Anja; Juhl, Carsten; Eckstein, Felix; Øiestad, Britt Elin

2017-05-01

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on the association between knee extensor strength and the risk of structural, symptomatic, or functional deterioration in individuals with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis (KOA). We systematically identified and methodologically appraised all longitudinal studies (≥1-year followup) reporting an association between knee extensor strength and structural (tibiofemoral, patellofemoral), symptomatic (self-reported, knee replacement), or functional (subjective, objective) decline in individuals with or at risk of radiographic or symptomatic KOA. Results were pooled for each of the above associations using meta-analysis, or if necessary, summarized according to a best-evidence synthesis. Fifteen studies were included, evaluating >8,000 participants (51% female), with a followup time between 1.5 and 8 years. Meta-analysis revealed that lower knee extensor strength was associated with an increased risk of symptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC] pain: odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.10-1.67) and functional decline (WOMAC function: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.00-1.89, and chair-stand task: OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.03-1.04), but not increased risk of radiographic tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN) (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.84-1.56). No trend in risk was observed for KOA status (present versus absent). Best-evidence synthesis showed inconclusive evidence for lower knee extensor strength being associated with increased risk of patellofemoral deterioration. Meta-analysis showed that lower knee extensor strength is associated with an increased risk of symptomatic and functional deterioration, but not tibiofemoral JSN. The risk of patellofemoral deterioration in the presence of knee extensor strength deficits is inconclusive. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Cancer Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Soils and Sediments of India: A Meta-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarafdar, Abhrajyoti; Sinha, Alok

2017-10-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils and sediments was conducted using the probabilistic approach from a national perspective. Published monitoring data of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons present in soils and sediments at different study points across India were collected and converted to their corresponding BaP equivalent concentrations. These BaP equivalent concentrations were used to evaluate comprehensive cancer risk for two different age groups. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The analysis denotes 90% cancer risk value of 1.770E-5 for children and 3.156E-5 for adults at heavily polluted site soils. Overall carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils of India were mostly in acceptance limits. However, the food ingestion exposure route for sediments leads them to a highly risked zone. The 90% risk values from sediments are 7.863E-05 for children and 3.999E-04 for adults. Sensitivity analysis reveals exposure duration and relative skin adherence factor for soil as the most influential parameter of the assessment, followed by BaP equivalent concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. For sediments, biota to sediment accumulation factor of fish in terms of BaP is most sensitive on the total outcome, followed by BaP equivalent and exposure duration. Individual exposure route analysis showed dermal contact for soils and food ingestion for sediments as the main exposure pathway. Some specific locations such as surrounding areas of Bhavnagar, Raniganj, Sunderban, Raipur, and Delhi demand potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. The current study is probably the first attempt to provide information on the carcinogenic risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil and sediments across India.

Risk Management in Biologics Technology Transfer.

PubMed

Toso, Robert; Tsang, Jonathan; Xie, Jasmina; Hohwald, Stephen; Bain, David; Willison-Parry, Derek

Technology transfer of biological products is a complex process that is important for product commercialization. To achieve a successful technology transfer, the risks that arise from changes throughout the project must be managed. Iterative risk analysis and mitigation tools can be used to both evaluate and reduce risk. The technology transfer stage gate model is used as an example tool to help manage risks derived from both designed process change and unplanned changes that arise due to unforeseen circumstances. The strategy of risk assessment for a change can be tailored to the type of change. In addition, a cross-functional team and centralized documentation helps maximize risk management efficiency to achieve a successful technology transfer. © PDA, Inc. 2016.

Replacing zoledronic acid with denosumab is a risk factor for developing osteonecrosis of the jaw.

PubMed

Higuchi, Tomoko; Soga, Yoshihiko; Muro, Misato; Kajizono, Makoto; Kitamura, Yoshihisa; Sendo, Toshiaki; Sasaki, Akira

2018-06-01

Intravenous zoledronic acid (ZA) is often replaced with subcutaneous denosumab in patients with bone metastatic cancer. Despite their different pharmacologic mechanisms of action, both denosumab and ZA are effective in bone metastasis but cause osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) as a side effect. ZA persists in the body almost indefinitely, whereas denosumab does not persist for long periods. This study evaluated the risks of developing ONJ when replacing ZA with denosumab. In total, 161 Japanese patients administered ZA for bone metastatic cancer were enrolled in this single-center, retrospective, observational study. The risk of developing ONJ was evaluated by logistic regression analysis using the following factors: age, gender, cancer type, angiogenesis inhibitors, steroids, and replacement of ZA with denosumab. Seventeen patients (10.6%) developed ONJ. Multiple regression analysis indicated a significant difference in rate of ONJ associated with replacement of ZA with denosumab (odds ratio = 3.81; 95% confidence interval 1.04-13.97; P = .043). Replacing ZA with denosumab is a risk factor for the development of ONJ. Both binding of bisphosphonate to bone and receptor activator of nuclear factor-κ B ligand inhibition could additively increase the risk of ONJ. We bring the replacement of ZA with denosumab to the attention of clinical oncologists. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Cognitive Analysis of College Students’ Explanations for Engaging in Unprotected Sexual Intercourse

PubMed Central

O’Sullivan, Lucia F.; Udell, Wadiya; Montrose, Vernique A.; Antoniello, Patricia; Hoffman, Susie

2011-01-01

Young adults, including college students, engage in high levels of unprotected sexual activity despite relatively high rates of HIV/STI and pregnancy-related knowledge. Little is known about the cognitive strategies young people use to explain this inconsistency. The current study examined young people’s explanations for engaging in unprotected sexual activity in their committed relationships. Sixty-three young adults (32 women and 31 men) completed daily diaries over a three-week period, providing a total of 1,284 daily reports tracking their condom use and non-use during intercourse. Diary collection was followed by in-depth interviews designed to explore participants’ decision-making regarding their participation in sexual intercourse unprotected against infection or unwanted pregnancy. Less than one-quarter (24%) used condoms consistently; similar rates used contraception consistently. Participants primarily viewed condoms as a means of preventing pregnancy; few described disease prevention as a main motivation for their use. Analysis of the cognitions underlying their explanations for condom and contraception non-use were classified as (1) general biased risk evaluation, (2) biased evidence evaluation, (3) endorsement of poor alternatives, (4) focus on spurious justifications, (5) dismissing risk, and (6) ignoring risk. Prevention interventions should incorporate methods to challenge young people to acknowledge personal risk and commit themselves to taking steps to reduce this risk. PMID:19365717

Association between Polymorphisms in MicroRNAs and Risk of Urological Cancer: A Meta-Analysis Based on 17,019 Subjects

PubMed Central

Wang, Yu-Hui; Hu, Han-Ning; Weng, Hong; Chen, Hao; Luo, Chang-Liang; Ji, Jia; Yin, Chang-Qing; Yuan, Chun-Hui; Wang, Fu-Bing

2017-01-01

Accumulating evidence has demonstrated that some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) existing in miRNAs correlate with the susceptibility to urological cancers. However, a clear consensus still not reached due to the limited statistical power in individual study. Thus, we concluded a meta-analysis to systematically evaluate the association between microRNA SNPs and urological cancer risk. Eligible studies were collected from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI databases. Pooled odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated to assess the strength of the relationships between three SNPs (miR-196a2, C>T rs11614913; miR-146a, G>C rs2910164; and miR-499, A>G rs3746444) and the risk of urological cancers. In addition, the stability of our analysis was evaluated by publication bias, sensitivity and heterogeneity analysis. Overall, a total of 17,019 subjects from 14 studies were included in this meta-analysis. We found that CT (miR-196a2, C>T rs11614913) was a risk factor for renal cell carcinoma (CT vs. CC: OR = 1.72, 95%CI = 1.05–2.80, P = 0.03, I2 = 66%), especially in Asian population (CT vs. CC: OR = 1.17, 95%CI = 1.04–1.32, P < 0.01, I2 = 0%). miR-146a G>C rs2910164 was a protective factor of urological cancers (C vs. G: OR = 0.87, 95%CI = 0.81–0.93, P < 0.01, I2 = 0%), especially for bladder cancer. miR-499 A>G rs3746444 was correlated with an increased risk of urological cancers, specifically in Asian population. In conclusion, our meta-analysis suggests that polymorphisms in microRNAs, miR-196a2, C>T rs11614913, miR-146a G>C rs2910164 and miR-499 A>G rs3746444, may be associated with the development of urological cancers and the risks mainly exist in Asian populations. PMID:28579964

Relationship between cigarette smoking and risk of chronic myeloid leukaemia: a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Qin, Ling; Deng, Hui-Yang; Chen, Sheng-Jiang; Wei, Wei

2017-05-01

Previous epidemiologic studies that have been reported on the association between cigarette smoking and risk of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) have remained controversial. A comprehensive meta-analysis was performed to evaluate smoking as a potential relationship factor and incidence of CML. Systematic literatures collected from articles published before August 2015 were searched from PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library. A total of 10 studies (nine case-controls and one cohort) met inclusion criteria of this meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to assess the strength of the association between cigarette smoking and risk of CML in this study. Quality assessments were performed on the studies with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. I2 index was used to evaluate heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed through funnel plots and Begger's test. No significant association was observed between ever-smokers and CML when compared among non-smokers (OR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.99-1.29) or between subgroups stratified by smoking history, gender, geographical region, study design and source of patients. Our results demonstrate that this association was stronger in individuals who smoked <20 cigarettes/day (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.06-2.79) vs. individuals who smoked >20 cigarettes/day (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 0.55-2.81). Moreover, cumulative smoking of <15, 15-30 and >30 pack-years was associated with ORs of 1.22, 1.32 and 1.39, respectively (P < 0.001, for trend). This meta-analysis suggests that smoking may significantly increase the risk of CML in a dose-dependent manner. However, additional well-designed, prospective cohort studies are required to verify these findings and identify other risk factors associated with CML.

Preparation of a flood-risk environmental index: case study of eight townships in Changhua County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Peng, Szu-Hsien

2018-02-26

To evaluate flood-prone areas, correlation analysis of flooding factors for the quantitative evaluation of hazard degree was determined to assist in further disaster prevention management. This study used flood-prone areas in 35 villages over eight townships (Changhua, Huatan, Yuanlin, Xiushui, Puyan, Hemei, Dacun, and Erlin) in Changhua County as research samples. Linear combination was used to evaluate flood-prone environmental indices, and an expert questionnaire was designed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method to determine the weights of factors. These factors were then used to calculate the eigenvector of a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the weights for the risk assessment criteria. Through collection of disaster cases, with particular focus on specifically protected areas where flooding has occurred or is likely to occur, public adaptation and response capabilities were evaluated by using an interview questionnaire that contains the items of perceived disaster risk, resource acquisition capability, adaptation capability, and environment understanding and disaster prevention education. Overlays in a geographic information system were used to analyze the flood-risk degree in villages and to construct a distribution map that contains flood-prone environment indices. The results can assist local governments in understanding the risk degree of various administrative areas to aid them in developing effective mitigation plans.

Evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimisation measures: the application of a conceptual framework to Danish real-world dabigatran data.

PubMed

Nyeland, Martin Erik; Laursen, Mona Vestergaard; Callréus, Torbjörn

2017-06-01

For both marketing authorization holders and regulatory authorities, evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization measures is now an integral part of pharmacovigilance in the European Union. The overall aim of activities in this area is to assess the performance of risk minimization measures implemented in order to ensure a positive benefit-risk balance in patients treated with a medicinal product. Following a review of the relevant literature, we developed a conceptual framework consisting of four domains (data, knowledge, behaviour and outcomes) intended for the evaluation of risk minimization measures put into practice in the Danish health-care system. For the implementation of the framework, four classes of monitoring variables can be named and defined: patient descriptors, performance-related indicators of knowledge, behaviour and outcomes. We reviewed the features of the framework when applied to historical, real-world data following the introduction of dabigatran in Denmark for the prophylactic treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The application of the framework provided useful graphical displays and an opportunity for a statistical evaluation (interrupted time series analysis) of a regulatory intervention. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.