Hazard ratio estimation and inference in clinical trials with many tied event times.

PubMed

Mehrotra, Devan V; Zhang, Yiwei

2018-06-13

The medical literature contains numerous examples of randomized clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints in which large numbers of events accrued over relatively short follow-up periods, resulting in many tied event times. A generally common feature across such examples was that the logrank test was used for hypothesis testing and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for hazard ratio estimation. We caution that this common practice is particularly risky in the setting of many tied event times for two reasons. First, the estimator of the hazard ratio can be severely biased if the Breslow tie-handling approximation for the Cox model (the default in SAS and Stata software) is used. Second, the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio can include one even when the corresponding logrank test p-value is less than 0.05. To help establish a better practice, with applicability for both superiority and noninferiority trials, we use theory and simulations to contrast Wald and score tests based on well-known tie-handling approximations for the Cox model. Our recommendation is to report the Wald test p-value and corresponding confidence interval based on the Efron approximation. The recommended test is essentially as powerful as the logrank test, the accompanying point and interval estimates of the hazard ratio have excellent statistical properties even in settings with many tied event times, inferential alignment between the p-value and confidence interval is guaranteed, and implementation is straightforward using commonly used software. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Timing Processes Are Correlated when Tasks Share a Salient Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zelaznik, Howard N.; Rosenbaum, David A.

2010-01-01

Event timing is manifested when participants make discrete movements such as repeatedly tapping a key. Emergent timing is manifested when participants make continuous movements such as repeatedly drawing a circle. Here we pursued the possibility that providing salient perceptual events to mark the completion of time intervals could allow circle…

The cyclic and fractal seismic series preceding an mb 4.8 earthquake on 1980 February 14 near the Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varnes, D.J.; Bufe, C.G.

1996-01-01

Seismic activity in the 10 months preceding the 1980 February 14, mb 4.8 earthquake in the Virgin Islands, reported on by Frankel in 1982, consisted of four principal cycles. Each cycle began with a relatively large event or series of closely spaced events, and the duration of the cycles progressively shortened by a factor of about 3/4. Had this regular shortening of the cycles been recognized prior to the earthquake, the time of the next episode of setsmicity (the main shock) might have been closely estimated 41 days in advance. That this event could be much larger than the previous events is indicated from time-to-failure analysis of the accelerating rise in released seismic energy, using a non-linear time- and slip-predictable foreshock model. Examination of the timing of all events in the sequence shows an even higher degree of order. Rates of seismicity, measured by consecutive interevent times, when plotted on an iteration diagram of a rate versus the succeeding rate, form a triangular circulating trajectory. The trajectory becomes an ascending helix if extended in a third dimension, time. This construction reveals additional and precise relations among the time intervals between times of relatively high or relatively low rates of seismic activity, including period halving and doubling. The set of 666 time intervals between all possible pairs of the 37 recorded events appears to be a fractal; the set of time points that define the intervals has a finite, non-integer correlation dimension of 0.70. In contrast, the average correlation dimension of 50 random sequences of 37 events is significantly higher, dose to 1.0. In a similar analysis, the set of distances between pairs of epicentres has a fractal correlation dimension of 1.52. Well-defined cycles, numerous precise ratios among time intervals, and a non-random temporal fractal dimension suggest that the seismic series is not a random process, but rather the product of a deterministic dynamic system.

Summarizing the incidence of adverse events using volcano plots and time intervals.

PubMed

Zink, Richard C; Wolfinger, Russell D; Mann, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

Adverse event incidence analyses are a critical component for describing the safety profile of any new intervention. The results typically are presented in lengthy summary tables. For therapeutic areas where patients have frequent adverse events, analysis and interpretation are made more difficult by the sheer number and variety of events that occur. Understanding the risk in these instances becomes even more crucial. We describe a space-saving graphical summary that overcomes the limitations of traditional presentations of adverse events and improves interpretability of the safety profile. We present incidence analyses of adverse events graphically using volcano plots to highlight treatment differences. Data from a clinical trial of patients experiencing an aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage are used for illustration. Adjustments for multiplicity are illustrated. Color is used to indicate the treatment with higher incidence; bubble size represents the total number of events that occur in the treatment arms combined. Adjustments for multiple comparisons are displayed in a manner to indicate clearly those events for which the difference between treatment arms is statistically significant. Furthermore, adverse events can be displayed by time intervals, with multiple volcano plots or animation to appreciate changes in adverse event risk over time. Such presentations can emphasize early differences across treatments that may resolve later or highlight events for which treatment differences may become more substantial with longer follow-up. Treatment arms are compared in a pairwise fashion. Volcano plots are space-saving tools that emphasize important differences between the adverse event profiles of two treatment arms. They can incorporate multiplicity adjustments in a manner that is straightforward to interpret and, by using time intervals, can illustrate how adverse event risk changes over the course of a clinical trial.

Passive longitudes of solar cosmic rays in 19-24 solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getselev, Igor; Podzolko, Mikhail; Shatov, Pavel; Tasenko, Sergey; Skorohodov, Ilya; Okhlopkov, Viktor

The distribution of solar proton event sources along the Carrington longitude in 19-24 solar cycles is considered. For this study an extensive database on ≈450 solar proton events have been constructed using various available sources and solar cosmic ray measurements, which included the data about the time of the event, fluences of protons of various energies in it and the coordinates of its source on the Sun. The analysis has shown the significant inhomogeneity of the distribution. In particular a region of “passive longitudes” has been discovered, extensive over the longitude (from ≈90-100° to 170°) and the life time (the whole period of observations). From the 60 most powerful proton events during the 19-24 solar cycles not more than 1 event was originated from the interval of 100-170° Carrington longitude, from another 80 “medium” events only 10 were injected from this interval. The summarized proton fluence of the events, which sources belong to the interval of 90-170° amounts only to 5%, and if not take into account the single “anomalous” powerful event - to just only 1.2% from the total fluence for all the considered events. The existence of the extensive and stable interval of “passive” Carrington longitudes is the remarkable phenomenon in solar physics. It also confirms the physical relevance of the mean synodic period of Sun’s rotation determined by R. C. Carrington.

Relativistic solar particle events during STIP (study of travelling interplanetary phenomena) intervals II and IV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shea, M.A.; Smart, D.F.

1982-12-27

Using spaceship 'Earth' as a detector located at 1 AU, the relativistic solar cosmic ray events of 30 April 1976 and 22 November 1977 are compared to deduce the relativistic solar particle flux anisotropy and pitch angle characteristics in the interplanetary medium. These two ground level events occurred during STIP Interval II and IV respectively - periods of time of coordinated and cooperative scientific efforts.

A New Correlation of Large Earthquakes Along the Southern San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharer, K. M.; Weldon, R. J.; Biasi, G. P.

2010-12-01

There are now three sites on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) with records of 10 or more dated ground rupturing earthquakes (Frazier Mountain, Wrightwood and Pallett Creek) and at least seven other sites with 3-5 dated events. Numerous sites have related information including geomorphic offsets caused by 1 to a few earthquakes, a known amount of slip spanning a specific interval of time or number of earthquakes, or the number (but not necessarily the exact ages) of earthquakes in an interval of time. We use this information to construct a record of recent large earthquakes on the SSAF. Strongly overlapping C-14 age ranges, especially between closely spaced sites like Pallett Creek and Wrightwood on the Mojave segment and Thousand Palms, Indio, Coachella and Salt Creek on the southernmost 100 kms of the fault, and overlap between the more distant Frazier Mountain and Bidart Fan sites on the northernmost part of the fault suggest that the paleoseismic data are robust and can be explained by a relatively small number of events that span substantial portions of the fault. This is consistent with the extent of rupture of the two historic events (1857 was ~300 km long and 1812 was 100-200 km long); slip per event data that averages 3-5 m per event at most sites; and the long historical hiatus since 1857. While some sites have smaller offsets for individual events, correlation between sites suggests that many small offsets are near the end of long ruptures. While the long event series on the Mojave are quasi-periodic, individual intervals range about an order of magnitude, from a few decades up to ~200 years. This wide range of intervals and the apparent anti-slip predictable behavior of ruptures (small intervals are not followed by small events) suggest weak clustering or periods of time spanning multiple intervals when strain release is higher low lower than average. These properties defy the application of simple hazard analysis but need to be understood to properly forecast hazard along the fault.

Versatile all-digital time interval measuring system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyhlidal, David; Cech, Miroslav

2011-06-01

This paper describes a design and performance of a versatile all-digital time interval measuring system. The measurement method is based on an interpolation principle. In this principle the time interval is first roughly digitized by a coarse counter driven by a high stability reference clock and the fractions between the clock periods are measured by two Time-to-Digital Converter chips TDC-GPX manufactured by Acam messelectronic. Control circuits allow programmable customization of the system to satisfy many applications such as laser range finding, event counting, or time-of-flight measurements in various physics experiments. The system has two reference clocks inputs and two independent channels for measuring start and stop events. Only one 40 MHz reference is required for the measurement. The second reference can be, for example, 1 PPS (Pulse per Second) signal from a GPS (Global Positioning System) to time tag events. Time intervals are measured using the highest resolution mode of the TDC-GPX chips. The resolution of each chip is software programmable and is PLL (Phase Locked Loop) stabilized against temperature and voltage variations. The system can achieve a timing resolution better than 15 ps rms with up to 90 kHz repetition rate. The time interval measurement range is from 0 ps up to 1 second. The power consumption of the whole system is 18 W including an embedded computer board and an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) screen. The embedded computer controls the whole system, collects and evaluates measurement data and with the display provides a user interface. The system is implemented using commercially available components.

Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, Armin; Eichner, Jan F.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Havlin, Shlomo

2005-01-01

We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i)to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii)to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii)to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

A review of statistical issues with progression-free survival as an interval-censored time-to-event endpoint.

PubMed

Sun, Xing; Li, Xiaoyun; Chen, Cong; Song, Yang

2013-01-01

Frequent rise of interval-censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials (e.g., progression-free survival [PFS] in oncology) challenges statistical researchers in the pharmaceutical industry in various ways. These challenges exist in both trial design and data analysis. Conventional statistical methods treating intervals as fixed points, which are generally practiced by pharmaceutical industry, sometimes yield inferior or even flawed analysis results in extreme cases for interval-censored data. In this article, we examine the limitation of these standard methods under typical clinical trial settings and further review and compare several existing nonparametric likelihood-based methods for interval-censored data, methods that are more sophisticated but robust. Trial design issues involved with interval-censored data comprise another topic to be explored in this article. Unlike right-censored survival data, expected sample size or power for a trial with interval-censored data relies heavily on the parametric distribution of the baseline survival function as well as the frequency of assessments. There can be substantial power loss in trials with interval-censored data if the assessments are very infrequent. Such an additional dependency controverts many fundamental assumptions and principles in conventional survival trial designs, especially the group sequential design (e.g., the concept of information fraction). In this article, we discuss these fundamental changes and available tools to work around their impacts. Although progression-free survival is often used as a discussion point in the article, the general conclusions are equally applicable to other interval-censored time-to-event endpoints.

Time Components of the Left Ventricle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franks, B. Don

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of the time components of the left ventricle. Since one of the ways to investigate cardiac function is to analyze the time intervals between particular events of the cardiac cycle, various time intervals of systole and diastole of the left ventricle were measured from simultaneous…

Measuring Time on the PET and Other Microcomputers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tesler, Larry

1978-01-01

The operation of the microcomputer requires one or more clocks or timers to measure intervals of different magnitudes. Methods are discussed for measuring time intervals on PET in hours, minutes, seconds, microseconds, miscellaneous units, and timing events on external devices. Directions are added for BASIC program applications of timing…

An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

Voter model with non-Poissonian interevent intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaguchi, Taro; Masuda, Naoki

2011-09-01

Recent analysis of social communications among humans has revealed that the interval between interactions for a pair of individuals and for an individual often follows a long-tail distribution. We investigate the effect of such a non-Poissonian nature of human behavior on dynamics of opinion formation. We use a variant of the voter model and numerically compare the time to consensus of all the voters with different distributions of interevent intervals and different networks. Compared with the exponential distribution of interevent intervals (i.e., the standard voter model), the power-law distribution of interevent intervals slows down consensus on the ring. This is because of the memory effect; in the power-law case, the expected time until the next update event on a link is large if the link has not had an update event for a long time. On the complete graph, the consensus time in the power-law case is close to that in the exponential case. Regular graphs bridge these two results such that the slowing down of the consensus in the power-law case as compared to the exponential case is less pronounced as the degree increases.

Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2012-01-01

Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

DETECT: a MATLAB toolbox for event detection and identification in time series, with applications to artifact detection in EEG signals.

PubMed

Lawhern, Vernon; Hairston, W David; Robbins, Kay

2013-01-01

Recent advances in sensor and recording technology have allowed scientists to acquire very large time-series datasets. Researchers often analyze these datasets in the context of events, which are intervals of time where the properties of the signal change relative to a baseline signal. We have developed DETECT, a MATLAB toolbox for detecting event time intervals in long, multi-channel time series. Our primary goal is to produce a toolbox that is simple for researchers to use, allowing them to quickly train a model on multiple classes of events, assess the accuracy of the model, and determine how closely the results agree with their own manual identification of events without requiring extensive programming knowledge or machine learning experience. As an illustration, we discuss application of the DETECT toolbox for detecting signal artifacts found in continuous multi-channel EEG recordings and show the functionality of the tools found in the toolbox. We also discuss the application of DETECT for identifying irregular heartbeat waveforms found in electrocardiogram (ECG) data as an additional illustration.

DETECT: A MATLAB Toolbox for Event Detection and Identification in Time Series, with Applications to Artifact Detection in EEG Signals

PubMed Central

Lawhern, Vernon; Hairston, W. David; Robbins, Kay

2013-01-01

Recent advances in sensor and recording technology have allowed scientists to acquire very large time-series datasets. Researchers often analyze these datasets in the context of events, which are intervals of time where the properties of the signal change relative to a baseline signal. We have developed DETECT, a MATLAB toolbox for detecting event time intervals in long, multi-channel time series. Our primary goal is to produce a toolbox that is simple for researchers to use, allowing them to quickly train a model on multiple classes of events, assess the accuracy of the model, and determine how closely the results agree with their own manual identification of events without requiring extensive programming knowledge or machine learning experience. As an illustration, we discuss application of the DETECT toolbox for detecting signal artifacts found in continuous multi-channel EEG recordings and show the functionality of the tools found in the toolbox. We also discuss the application of DETECT for identifying irregular heartbeat waveforms found in electrocardiogram (ECG) data as an additional illustration. PMID:23638169

A model of return intervals between earthquake events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

2016-06-01

Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

Astrochronology of the Pliensbachian-Toarcian transition in the Foum Tillicht section (central High Atlas, Morroco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Mathieu; Bodin, Stéphane; Krencker, François-Nicolas

2015-04-01

The Pliensbachian and Toarcian stages (Early Jurassic) are marked by a series of carbon cycle disturbances, major climatic changes and severe faunal turnovers. An accurate knowledge of the timing of the Pliensbachian-Toarcian age is a key for quantifying fluxes and rhythms of faunal and geochemical processes during these major environmental perturbations. Although many studies provided astrochronological frameworks of the Toarcian Stage and the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event, no precise time frame exists for the Pliensbachian-Toarcian transition, often condensed in the previously studied sections. Here, we provide an astrochronology of the Pliensbachian-Toarcian transition in the Foum Tillicht section (central High Atlas, Morocco). The section is composed of decimetric hemipelagic marl-limestone alternations accompanied by cyclic fluctuations in the δ13Cmicrite. In this section, the marl-limestone alternations reflect cyclic sea-level/climatic changes, which triggers rhythmic migrations of the surrounding carbonate platforms and modulates the amount of carbonate exported to the basin. The studied interval encompasses 142.15 m of the section, from the base of the series to a hiatus in the Early Toarcian, marked by an erosional surface. The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (P-To) Event, a negative excursion in carbonate δ13Cmicrite, is observed pro parte in this studied interval. δ13Cmicrite measurements were performed every ~2 m at the base of the section and every 0.20 m within the P-To Event interval. Spectral analyses were performed using the multi-taper method and the evolutive Fast Fourier Transform to get the accurate assessment of the main significant periods and their evolution throughout the studied interval. Two main cycles are observed in the series: the 405-kyr eccentricity cycles is observed throughout the series, while the obliquity cycles is observed within the P-To Event, in the most densely sampled interval. The studied interval covers a 3.6-Myr interval. The duration of the part of P-To Event covered in this analysis is assessed at 0.70 Myr. In addition, the interval from the base of the Toarcian to the first occurrence of the calcareous nannofossil C. superbus has a duration assessed from 0.47 to 0.55 Myr. This duration is significantly higher than most of assessments obtained by former cyclostratigraphy analyses, showing that previous studies underestimated the duration of this interval, often condensed in the Western Tethys. This study shows the potential of the Foum Tillicht section to provide a refined time frame of the Pliensbachian-Toarcian boundary, which could be integrated in the next Geological Time Scale.

Dissociating Temporal Preparation Processes as a Function of the Inter-Trial Interval Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vallesi, Antonino; Lozano, Violeta N.; Correa, Angel

2013-01-01

Preparation over time is a ubiquitous capacity which implies decreasing uncertainty about when critical events will occur. This capacity is usually studied with the variable foreperiod paradigm, which consists in the random variation of the time interval (foreperiod) between a warning stimulus and a target. With this paradigm, response time (RT)…

Event models and the fan effect.

PubMed

Radvansky, G A; O'Rear, Andrea E; Fisher, Jerry S

2017-08-01

The current study explored the persistence of event model organizations and how this influences the experience of interference during retrieval. People in this study memorized lists of sentences about objects in locations, such as "The potted palm is in the hotel." Previous work has shown that such information can either be stored in separate event models, thereby producing retrieval interference, or integrated into common event models, thereby eliminating retrieval interference. Unlike prior studies, the current work explored the impact of forgetting up to 2 weeks later on this pattern of performance. We explored three possible outcomes across the various retention intervals. First, consistent with research showing that longer delays reduce proactive and retroactive interference, any retrieval interference effects of competing event models could be reduced over time. Second, the binding of information into events models may weaken over time, causing interference effects to emerge when they had previously been absent. Third, and finally, the organization of information into event models could remain stable over long periods of time. The results reported here are most consistent with the last outcome. While there were some minor variations across the various retention intervals, the basic pattern of event model organization remained preserved over the two-week retention period.

Timing: An Attribute of Associative Learning

PubMed Central

Molet, Mikael; Miller, Ralph R.

2013-01-01

The evidence reviewed in this paper suggests that when two events occur in spatiotemporal proximity to one another, an association between the two events is formed which encodes the timing of the events in relation to one another (including duration, order, and interval). The primary evidence supporting the view that temporal relationships are encoded is that subsequent presentation of one event ordinarily elicits behavior indicative of an expectation of the other event at a specific time. Thus, temporal relationships appear to be one of several attributes encoded at acquisition. PMID:23751257

Constraining the Long-Term Average of Earthquake Recurrence Intervals From Paleo- and Historic Earthquakes by Assimilating Information From Instrumental Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoeller, G.

2017-12-01

Paleo- and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimationof long-term recurrence intervals in fault zones, because sequences of paleoearthquakes cover more than one seismic cycle. On the other hand, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous and the problem of missing or misinterpreted events leads to additional problems. Taking these shortcomings into account, long-term recurrence intervals are usually unstable as long as no additional information are included. In the present study, we assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a ``clock-change'' model that leads to a Brownian Passage Time distribution for recurrence intervals. We take advantage of an earlier finding that the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter-b-value, which is usually around one and can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval significantly, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating uncertainties. We present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times assuming a stationary Poisson process.

A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

2013-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

Quantifying the impact of time-varying baseline risk adjustment in the self-controlled risk interval design.

PubMed

Li, Lingling; Kulldorff, Martin; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Kawai, Alison Tse; Hua, Wei

2015-12-01

The self-controlled risk interval design is commonly used to assess the association between an acute exposure and an adverse event of interest, implicitly adjusting for fixed, non-time-varying covariates. Explicit adjustment needs to be made for time-varying covariates, for example, age in young children. It can be performed via either a fixed or random adjustment. The random-adjustment approach can provide valid point and interval estimates but requires access to individual-level data for an unexposed baseline sample. The fixed-adjustment approach does not have this requirement and will provide a valid point estimate but may underestimate the variance. We conducted a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate their performance. We designed the simulation study using empirical data from the Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Mini-Sentinel Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring Rotavirus Vaccines and Intussusception study in children 5-36.9 weeks of age. The time-varying confounder is age. We considered a variety of design parameters including sample size, relative risk, time-varying baseline risks, and risk interval length. The random-adjustment approach has very good performance in almost all considered settings. The fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative when the number of events used to estimate the time-varying baseline risks is at least the number of events used to estimate the relative risk, which is almost always the case. We successfully identified settings in which the fixed-adjustment approach can be used as a good alternative and provided guidelines on the selection and implementation of appropriate analyses for the self-controlled risk interval design. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multivoxel pattern similarity suggests the integration of temporal duration in hippocampal event sequence representations.

PubMed

Thavabalasingam, Sathesan; O'Neil, Edward B; Lee, Andy C H

2018-05-22

Recent rodent work suggests the hippocampus may provide a temporal representation of event sequences, in which the order of events and the interval durations between them are encoded. There is, however, limited human evidence for the latter, in particular whether the hippocampus processes duration information pertaining to the passage of time rather than qualitative or quantitative changes in event content. We scanned participants while they made match-mismatch judgements on each trial between a study sequence of events and a subsequent test sequence. Participants explicitly remembered event order or interval duration information (Experiment 1), or monitored order only, with duration being manipulated implicitly (Experiment 2). Hippocampal study-test pattern similarity was significantly reduced by changes to order or duration in mismatch trials, even when duration was processed implicitly. Our findings suggest the human hippocampus processes short intervals within sequences and support the idea that duration information is integrated into hippocampal mnemonic representations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heinrich Events in the Southern Hemisphere: A Tropical Trigger?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, E. C.; Choi, W. S.; Quadri, M.

2006-12-01

Heinrich events, or periodic pulses of ice-rafted debris into the North Atlantic, have long been envisioned as having a high-latitude trigger. This trigger is most often cited as internal ice-sheet dynamics. McIntyre and Molfino (1996) proposed a tropical trigger for Heinrich Events: they suggested that precession-related strengthening of the North African monsoonal atmospheric circulation would alter oceanic circulation in such a way as to reduce heat transport to the high latitudes. Discovery of possible evidence (Mg/Ca ratios and faunal abundance) for Heinrich Event 1 (H1) in the Benguela upwelling region (Farmer et al. 2005) stimulated a search for a Heinrich Event 2 (H2) signal. From the review by Hemming (2004), we estimated the time horizon in which we would expect to find H2 as 22.4 - 26.8 ka. We extrapolated the published ODP1084B age model (Farmer et al. 2005) to estimate the depth interval of this time horizon, and counted the relative abundance of the four dominant species of planktonic foraminifera (G. inflata, G. bulloides, N. pachyderma right- and left-coiling) in each sample within this interval. We found an interval spanning five centimeters, or approximately 22.9 to 23.1 ka, in which the relative abundance of N. pachyderma (left-coiling) rose to a an average of 31.5%. Compared to the average level of 23.5% in the surrounding samples, and our pooled standard deviation of 3.4%, this shift appears significant. Increases in relative abundance of N. pachyderma (left-coiling) in earlier intervals are associated with decreased Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and are inferred to be a likely result of increased upwelling (Farmer et al. 2005). Although this new interval is shorter than would be expected from Heinrich event studies elsewhere, the shift in relative abundance of N. pachyderma (left-coiling) is consistent with an H2 signal. Better age control is needed to constrain the timing of this event, however, and data from an additional proxy such as Mg/Ca is needed to confirm the signal.

Geosocial process and its regularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikulina, Marina; Vikulin, Alexander; Dolgaya, Anna

2015-04-01

Natural disasters and social events (wars, revolutions, genocides, epidemics, fires, etc.) accompany each other throughout human civilization, thus reflecting the close relationship of these phenomena that are seemingly of different nature. In order to study this relationship authors compiled and analyzed the list of the 2,400 natural disasters and social phenomena weighted by their magnitude that occurred during the last XXXVI centuries of our history. Statistical analysis was performed separately for each aggregate (natural disasters and social phenomena), and for particular statistically representative types of events. There was 5 + 5 = 10 types. It is shown that the numbers of events in the list are distributed by logarithmic law: the bigger the event, the less likely it happens. For each type of events and each aggregate the existence of periodicities with periods of 280 ± 60 years was established. Statistical analysis of the time intervals between adjacent events for both aggregates showed good agreement with Weibull-Gnedenko distribution with shape parameter less than 1, which is equivalent to the conclusion about the grouping of events at small time intervals. Modeling of statistics of time intervals with Pareto distribution allowed to identify the emergent property for all events in the aggregate. This result allowed the authors to make conclusion about interaction between natural disasters and social phenomena. The list of events compiled by authors and first identified properties of cyclicity, grouping and interaction process reflected by this list is the basis of modeling essentially unified geosocial process at high enough statistical level. Proof of interaction between "lifeless" Nature and Society is fundamental and provided a new approach to forecasting demographic crises with taking into account both natural disasters and social phenomena.

A temporal discriminability account of children's eyewitness suggestibility.

PubMed

Bright-Paul, Alexandra; Jarrold, Christopher

2009-07-01

Children's suggestibility is typically measured using a three-stage 'event-misinformation-test' procedure. We examined whether suggestibility is influenced by the time delays imposed between these stages, and in particular whether the temporal discriminability of sources (event and misinformation) predicts performance. In a novel approach, the degree of source discriminability was calculated as the relative magnitude of two intervals (the ratio of event-misinformation and misinformation-test intervals), based on an adaptation of existing 'ratio-rule' accounts of memory. Five-year-olds (n =150) watched an event, and were exposed to misinformation, before memory for source was tested. The absolute event-test delay (12 versus 24 days) and the 'ratio' of event-misinformation/misinformation-test intervals (11:1, 3:1, 1:1, 1:3 and 1:11) were manipulated across participants. The temporal discriminability of sources, measured by the ratio, was indeed a strong predictor of suggestibility. Most importantly, if the ratio was constant (e.g. 18/6 versus 9/3 days), performance was remarkably similar despite variations in absolute delay (e.g. 24 versus 12 days). This intriguing finding not only extends the ratio-rule of distinctiveness to misinformation paradigms, but also serves to illustrate a new empirical means of differentiating between explanations of suggestibility based on interference between sources and disintegration of source information over time.

Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities

PubMed Central

Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

2016-01-01

Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of attentional deployment between the inducers (odors) and emotionally neutral stimuli (visual dots and sound beeps). PMID:27148143

Motor Synchronization in Patients With Schizophrenia: Preserved Time Representation With Abnormalities in Predictive Timing.

PubMed

Wilquin, Hélène; Delevoye-Turrell, Yvonne; Dione, Mariama; Giersch, Anne

2018-01-01

Objective: Basic temporal dysfunctions have been described in patients with schizophrenia, which may impact their ability to connect and synchronize with the outer world. The present study was conducted with the aim to distinguish between interval timing and synchronization difficulties and more generally the spatial-temporal organization disturbances for voluntary actions. A new sensorimotor synchronization task was developed to test these abilities. Method: Twenty-four chronic schizophrenia patients matched with 27 controls performed a spatial-tapping task in which finger taps were to be produced in synchrony with a regular metronome to six visual targets presented around a virtual circle on a tactile screen. Isochronous (time intervals of 500 ms) and non-isochronous auditory sequences (alternated time intervals of 300/600 ms) were presented. The capacity to produce time intervals accurately versus the ability to synchronize own actions (tap) with external events (tone) were measured. Results: Patients with schizophrenia were able to produce the tapping patterns of both isochronous and non-isochronous auditory sequences as accurately as controls producing inter-response intervals close to the expected interval of 500 and 900 ms, respectively. However, the synchronization performances revealed significantly more positive asynchrony means (but similar variances) in the patient group than in the control group for both types of auditory sequences. Conclusion: The patterns of results suggest that patients with schizophrenia are able to perceive and produce both simple and complex sequences of time intervals but are impaired in the ability to synchronize their actions with external events. These findings suggest a specific deficit in predictive timing, which may be at the core of early symptoms previously described in schizophrenia.

Observer Error when Measuring Safety-Related Behavior: Momentary Time Sampling versus Whole-Interval Recording

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Matthew A.; Skourides, Andreas; Alvero, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Interval recording procedures are used by persons who collect data through observation to estimate the cumulative occurrence and nonoccurrence of behavior/events. Although interval recording procedures can increase the efficiency of observational data collection, they can also induce error from the observer. In the present study, 50 observers were…

Analysis of single ion channel data incorporating time-interval omission and sampling

PubMed Central

The, Yu-Kai; Timmer, Jens

2005-01-01

Hidden Markov models are widely used to describe single channel currents from patch-clamp experiments. The inevitable anti-aliasing filter limits the time resolution of the measurements and therefore the standard hidden Markov model is not adequate anymore. The notion of time-interval omission has been introduced where brief events are not detected. The developed, exact solutions to this problem do not take into account that the measured intervals are limited by the sampling time. In this case the dead-time that specifies the minimal detectable interval length is not defined unambiguously. We show that a wrong choice of the dead-time leads to considerably biased estimates and present the appropriate equations to describe sampled data. PMID:16849220

Walking through doorways causes forgetting: Event structure or updating disruption?

PubMed

Pettijohn, Kyle A; Radvansky, Gabriel A

2016-11-01

According to event cognition theory, people segment experience into separate event models. One consequence of this segmentation is that when people transport objects from one location to another, memory is worse than if people move across a large location. In two experiments participants navigated through a virtual environment, and recognition memory was tested in either the presence or the absence of a location shift for objects that were recently interacted with (i.e., just picked up or set down). Of particular concern here is whether this location updating effect is due to (a) differences in retention intervals as a result of the navigation process, (b) a temporary disruption in cognitive processing that may occur as a result of the updating processes, or (c) a need to manage multiple event models, as has been suggested in prior research. Experiment 1 explored whether retention interval is driving this effect by recording travel times from the acquisition of an object and the probe time. The results revealed that travel times were similar, thereby rejecting a retention interval explanation. Experiment 2 explored whether a temporary disruption in processing is producing the effect by introducing a 3-second delay prior to the presentation of a memory probe. The pattern of results was not affected by adding a delay, thereby rejecting a temporary disruption account. These results are interpreted in the context of the event horizon model, which suggests that when there are multiple event models that contain common elements there is interference at retrieval, which compromises performance.

Calcareous nannoplankton and foraminiferal response to global Oligocene and Miocene climatic oscillations: a case study from the Western Carpathian segment of the Central Paratethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcová, Katarína

2017-06-01

The reactions of foraminiferal and calcareous nannoplankton assemblages to global warming and cooling events in the time intervals of ca. 27 to 19 Ma and 13.5 to 15 Ma (Oligocene and Miocene) were studied in subtropical epicontinental seas influenced by local tectonic and palaeogeographic events (the Central Paratethys). Regardless of these local events, global climatic processes significantly influenced the palaeoenvironment within the marine basin. Warm intervals are characterized by a stable, humid climate and a high-nutrient regime, due primarily to increased continental input of phytodetritus and also locally due to seasonal upwelling. Coarse clastics deposited in a hyposaline environment characterize the marginal part of the basin. Aridification events causing decreased riverine input and consequent nutrient decreases, characterized cold intervals. Apparent seasonality, as well as catastrophic climatic events, induced stress conditions and the expansion of opportunistic taxa. Carbonate production and hypersaline facies characterize the marginal part of the basins. Hypersaline surface water triggered downwelling circulation and mixing of water masses. Decreased abundance or extinction of K-specialists during each cold interval accelerated their speciation in the subsequent warm interval. Local tectonic events led to discordances between local and global sea-level changes (tectonically triggered uplift or subsidence) or to local salt formation (in the rain shadows of newly-created mountains).

Multiscale multifractal DCCA and complexity behaviors of return intervals for Potts price model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Stanley, H. Eugene

2018-02-01

To investigate the characteristics of extreme events in financial markets and the corresponding return intervals among these events, we use a Potts dynamic system to construct a random financial time series model of the attitudes of market traders. We use multiscale multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MM-DCCA) and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) perform numerical research of the return intervals for two significant China's stock market indices and for the proposed model. The new MM-DCCA method is based on the Hurst surface and provides more interpretable cross-correlations of the dynamic mechanism between different return interval series. We scale the LZC method with different exponents to illustrate the complexity of return intervals in different scales. Empirical studies indicate that the proposed return intervals from the Potts system and the real stock market indices hold similar statistical properties.

Confirmation of Romer's Gap as a low oxygen interval constraining the timing of initial arthropod and vertebrate terrestrialization

PubMed Central

Ward, Peter; Labandeira, Conrad; Laurin, Michel; Berner, Robert A.

2006-01-01

The first terrestrialization of species that evolved from previously aquatic taxa was a seminal event in evolutionary history. For vertebrates, one of the most important terrestrialized groups, this event was interrupted by a time interval known as Romer's Gap, for which, until recently, few fossils were known. Here, we argue that geochronologic range data of terrestrial arthropods show a pattern similar to that of vertebrates. Thus, Romer's Gap is real, occupied an interval from 360 million years before present (MYBP) to 345 MYBP, and occurred when environmental conditions were unfavorable for air-breathing, terrestrial animals. These model results suggest that atmospheric oxygen levels were the major driver of successful terrestrialization, and a low-oxygen interval accounts for Romer's Gap. Results also show that terrestrialization among members of arthropod and vertebrate clades occurred in two distinct phases. The first phase was a 65-million-year (My) interval from 425 to 360 MYBP, representing an earlier, prolonged event of complete arthropod terrestrialization of smaller-sized forms (425–385 MYBP) and a subsequent, modest, and briefer event of incipient terrestrialization of larger-sized, aquatic vertebrates (385–360 MYBP). The second phase began at 345 MYBP, characterized by numerous new terrestrial species emerging in both major clades. The first and second terrestrialization phases bracket Romer's Gap, which represents a depauperate spectrum of major arthropod and vertebrate taxa before a major Late Paleozoic colonization of terrestrial habitats. PMID:17065318

Timing and pacing of the Late Devonian mass extinction event regulated by eccentricity and obliquity.

PubMed

De Vleeschouwer, David; Da Silva, Anne-Christine; Sinnesael, Matthias; Chen, Daizhao; Day, James E; Whalen, Michael T; Guo, Zenghui; Claeys, Philippe

2017-12-22

The Late Devonian envelops one of Earth's big five mass extinction events at the Frasnian-Famennian boundary (374 Ma). Environmental change across the extinction severely affected Devonian reef-builders, besides many other forms of marine life. Yet, cause-and-effect chains leading to the extinction remain poorly constrained as Late Devonian stratigraphy is poorly resolved, compared to younger cataclysmic intervals. In this study we present a global orbitally calibrated chronology across this momentous interval, applying cyclostratigraphic techniques. Our timescale stipulates that 600 kyr separate the lower and upper Kellwasser positive δ 13 C excursions. The latter excursion is paced by obliquity and is therein similar to Mesozoic intervals of environmental upheaval, like the Cretaceous Ocean-Anoxic-Event-2 (OAE-2). This obliquity signature implies coincidence with a minimum of the 2.4 Myr eccentricity cycle, during which obliquity prevails over precession, and highlights the decisive role of astronomically forced "Milankovitch" climate change in timing and pacing the Late Devonian mass extinction.

Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exceeds ~20% of the mean recurrence interval. We also derive probabilities for the case in which the last event is further constrained to have occurred before historical record keeping began (the historic open interval), which can only serve to increase earthquake probabilities for typically applied renewal models.We conclude that accounting for the historic open interval can improve long-term earthquake rupture forecasts for California and elsewhere.

Time, rate, and conditioning.

PubMed

Gallistel, C R; Gibbon, J

2000-04-01

The authors draw together and develop previous timing models for a broad range of conditioning phenomena to reveal their common conceptual foundations: First, conditioning depends on the learning of the temporal intervals between events and the reciprocals of these intervals, the rates of event occurrence. Second, remembered intervals and rates translate into observed behavior through decision processes whose structure is adapted to noise in the decision variables. The noise and the uncertainties consequent on it have both subjective and objective origins. A third feature of these models is their timescale invariance, which the authors argue is a very important property evident in the available experimental data. This conceptual framework is similar to the psychophysical conceptual framework in which contemporary models of sensory processing are rooted. The authors contrast it with the associative conceptual framework.

Background music as a quasi clock in retrospective duration judgments.

PubMed

Bailey, Nicole; Areni, Charles S

2006-04-01

The segmentation-change model of time perception proposes that individuals engaged in cognitive tasks during a given interval of time retrospectively estimate duration by recalling events that occurred during the interval and inferring each event's duration. Previous research suggests that individuals can recall the number of songs heard during an interval and infer the length of each song, exactly the conditions that foster estimates of duration based on the segmentation-change model. The results of a laboratory experiment indicated that subjects who solved word-search puzzles for 20 min. estimated the duration of the interval to be longer when 8 short songs (<3 min.) as opposed to 4 long songs (6+ min.) were played in the background, regardless of whether the musical format was Contemporary Dance or New Age. Assuming each song represented a distinct segment in memory, these results are consistent with the segmentation-change model. These results suggest that background music may not always reduce estimates of duration by drawing attention away from the passage of time. Instead, background music may actually expand the subjective length of an interval by creating accessible traces in memory, which are retrospectively used to infer duration.

Finding Every Root of a Broad Class of Real, Continuous Functions in a Given Interval

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, Robert C.; Wolgast, Paul A.

2011-01-01

One of the most pervasive needs within the Deep Space Network (DSN) Metric Prediction Generator (MPG) view period event generation is that of finding solutions to given occurrence conditions. While the general form of an equation expresses equivalence between its left-hand and right-hand expressions, the traditional treatment of the subject subtracts the two sides, leaving an expression of the form Integral of(x) = 0. Values of the independent variable x satisfying this condition are roots, or solutions. Generally speaking, there may be no solutions, a unique solution, multiple solutions, or a continuum of solutions to a given equation. In particular, all view period events are modeled as zero crossings of various metrics; for example, the time at which the elevation of a spacecraft reaches its maximum value, as viewed from a Deep Space Station (DSS), is found by locating that point at which the derivative of the elevation function becomes zero. Moreover, each event type may have several occurrences within a given time interval of interest. For example, a spacecraft in a low Moon orbit will experience several possible occultations per day, each of which must be located in time. The MPG is charged with finding all specified event occurrences that take place within a given time interval (or pass ), without any special clues from operators as to when they may occur, for the entire spectrum of missions undertaken by the DSN. For each event type, the event metric function is a known form that can be computed for any instant within the interval. A method has been created for a mathematical root finder to be capable of finding all roots of an arbitrary continuous function, within a given interval, to be subject to very lenient, parameterized assumptions. One assumption is that adjacent roots are separated at least by a given amount, xGuard. Any point whose function value is less than ef in magnitude is considered to be a root, and the function values at distances xGuard away from a root are larger than ef, unless there is another root located in this vicinity. A root is considered found if, during iteration, two root candidates differ by less than a pre-specified ex, and the optimum cubic polynomial matching the function at the end and at two interval points (that is within a relative error fraction L at its midpoint) is reliable in indicating whether the function has extrema within the interval. The robustness of this method depends solely on choosing these four parameters that control the search. The roots of discontinuous functions were also found, but at degraded performance.

DETECT: A MATLAB Toolbox for Event Detection and Identification in Time Series, with Applications to Artifact Detection in EEG Signals

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-24

DETECT: A MATLAB Toolbox for Event Detection and Identification in Time Series, with Applications to Artifact Detection in EEG Signals Vernon...datasets in the context of events, which are intervals of time where the properties of the signal change relative to a baseline signal . We have developed...As an illustration, we discuss application of the DETECT toolbox for detecting signal artifacts found in continuous multi-channel EEG recordings and

Electronic system

DOEpatents

Robison, G H; Dickson, J F

1960-11-15

An electronic system is designed for indicating the occurrence of a plurality of electrically detectable events within predetermined time intervals. The system comprises separate input means electrically associated with the events under observation an electronic channel associated with each input means, including control means and indicating means; timing means adapted to apply a signal from the input means after a predetermined time to the control means to deactivate each of the channels; and means for resetting the system to its initial condition after the observation of each group of events. (D.L.C.)

Enhanced ionization of the Martian nightside ionosphere during solar energetic particle events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemec, F.; Morgan, D. D.; Dieval, C.; Gurnett, D. A.; Futaana, Y.

2013-12-01

The nightside ionosphere of Mars is highly variable and very irregular, controlled to a great extent by the configuration of the crustal magnetic fields. The ionospheric reflections observed by the MARSIS radar sounder on board the Mars Express spacecraft in this region are typically oblique (reflection by a distant feature), so that they cannot be used to determine the peak altitude precisely. Nevertheless, the peak electron density can be in principle readily determined. However, in more than 90% of measurements the peak electron densities are too low to be detected. We focus on the time intervals of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. One may expect high energy particle precipitation into the nightside ionosphere to increase the electron density there. Thus, comparison of characteristics between SEP/no-SEP time intervals is important to understand the formation mechanism of the nightside ionosphere. The time intervals of SEP events are determined using the increase in the background counts recorded by the ion sensor (IMA) of the ASPERA-3 particle instrument on board Mars Express. Then we use MARSIS measurements to determine how much the nightside ionosphere is enhanced during these time intervals. We show that the peak electron densities during these periods are large enough to be detected in more than 30% of measurements, while the reflections from the ground almost entirely disappear, indicating that the nightside electron densities are tremendously increased as compared to the normal nightside conditions. The influence of various parameters on the formation of the nightside ionosphere is thoroughly discussed.

An Efficient Format for Nearly Constant-Time Access to Arbitrary Time Intervals in Large Trace Files

DOE PAGES

Chan, Anthony; Gropp, William; Lusk, Ewing

2008-01-01

A powerful method to aid in understanding the performance of parallel applications uses log or trace files containing time-stamped events and states (pairs of events). These trace files can be very large, often hundreds or even thousands of megabytes. Because of the cost of accessing and displaying such files, other methods are often used that reduce the size of the tracefiles at the cost of sacrificing detail or other information. This paper describes a hierarchical trace file format that provides for display of an arbitrary time window in a time independent of the total size of the file and roughlymore » proportional to the number of events within the time window. This format eliminates the need to sacrifice data to achieve a smaller trace file size (since storage is inexpensive, it is necessary only to make efficient use of bandwidth to that storage). The format can be used to organize a trace file or to create a separate file of annotations that may be used with conventional trace files. We present an analysis of the time to access all of the events relevant to an interval of time and we describe experiments demonstrating the performance of this file format.« less

Listing of 502 Times When the Ulysses Magnetic Fields Instrument Observed Waves Due to Newborn Interstellar Pickup Protons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cannon, Bradford E.; Smith, Charles W.; Isenberg, Philip A.

In two earlier publications we analyzed 502 intervals of magnetic waves excited by newborn interstellar pickup protons that were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft. Due to the considerable effort required in identifying these events, we provide a list of the times for the 502 wave event intervals previously identified. In the process, we provide a brief description of how the waves were found and what their properties are. We also remind the reader of the conditions that permit the waves to reach observable levels and explain why the waves are not seen more often.

Modeling and simulation of count data.

PubMed

Plan, E L

2014-08-13

Count data, or number of events per time interval, are discrete data arising from repeated time to event observations. Their mean count, or piecewise constant event rate, can be evaluated by discrete probability distributions from the Poisson model family. Clinical trial data characterization often involves population count analysis. This tutorial presents the basics and diagnostics of count modeling and simulation in the context of pharmacometrics. Consideration is given to overdispersion, underdispersion, autocorrelation, and inhomogeneity.

Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weldon, R.; Scharer, K.; Fumal, T.; Biasi, G.

2004-01-01

The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood typifies the entire southern San Andreas fault; more long event series will be required to definitively outline prehistoric rupture extents.

[Study on the timeliness of detection and reporting on public health emergency events in China].

PubMed

Li, Ke-Li; Feng, Zi-Jian; Ni, Da-Xin

2009-03-01

To analyze the timeliness of detection and reporting on public health emergency events, and to explore the effective strategies for improving the relative capacity on those issues. We conducted a retrospective survey on 3275 emergency events reported through Public Health Emergency Events Surveillance System from 2005 to the first half of 2006. Developed by county Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a uniformed self-administrated questionnaire was used to collect data, which would include information on the detection, reporting of the events. For communicable diseases events, the median of time interval between the occurrence of first case and the detection of event was 6 days (P25 = 2, P75 = 13). For food poisoning events and clusters of disease with unknown origin, the medians were 3 hours (P25, P75 = 16) and 1 days (P25 = 0, P75 = 5). 71.54% of the events were reported by the discoverers within 2 hours after the detection. In general, the ranges of time intervals between the occurrence, detection or reporting of the events were different, according to the categories of events. The timeliness of detection and reporting of events could have been improved dramatically if the definition of events, according to their characteristics, had been more reasonable and accessible, as well as the improvement of training program for healthcare staff and teachers.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

Fluctuations in Wikipedia access-rate and edit-event data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kämpf, Mirko; Tismer, Sebastian; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Muchnik, Lev

2012-12-01

Internet-based social networks often reflect extreme events in nature and society by drastic increases in user activity. We study and compare the dynamics of the two major complex processes necessary for information spread via the online encyclopedia ‘Wikipedia’, i.e., article editing (information upload) and article access (information viewing) based on article edit-event time series and (hourly) user access-rate time series for all articles. Daily and weekly activity patterns occur in addition to fluctuations and bursting activity. The bursts (i.e., significant increases in activity for an extended period of time) are characterized by a power-law distribution of durations of increases and decreases. For describing the recurrence and clustering of bursts we investigate the statistics of the return intervals between them. We find stretched exponential distributions of return intervals in access-rate time series, while edit-event time series yield simple exponential distributions. To characterize the fluctuation behavior we apply detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), finding that most article access-rate time series are characterized by strong long-term correlations with fluctuation exponents α≈0.9. The results indicate significant differences in the dynamics of information upload and access and help in understanding the complex process of collecting, processing, validating, and distributing information in self-organized social networks.

The Time Dependent Propensity Function for Acceleration of Spatial Stochastic Simulation of Reaction-Diffusion Systems

PubMed Central

Wu, Sheng; Li, Hong; Petzold, Linda R.

2015-01-01

The inhomogeneous stochastic simulation algorithm (ISSA) is a fundamental method for spatial stochastic simulation. However, when diffusion events occur more frequently than reaction events, simulating the diffusion events by ISSA is quite costly. To reduce this cost, we propose to use the time dependent propensity function in each step. In this way we can avoid simulating individual diffusion events, and use the time interval between two adjacent reaction events as the simulation stepsize. We demonstrate that the new algorithm can achieve orders of magnitude efficiency gains over widely-used exact algorithms, scales well with increasing grid resolution, and maintains a high level of accuracy. PMID:26609185

Time interval measurement device based on surface acoustic wave filter excitation, providing 1 ps precision and stability.

PubMed

Panek, Petr; Prochazka, Ivan

2007-09-01

This article deals with the time interval measurement device, which is based on a surface acoustic wave (SAW) filter as a time interpolator. The operating principle is based on the fact that a transversal SAW filter excited by a short pulse can generate a finite signal with highly suppressed spectra outside a narrow frequency band. If the responses to two excitations are sampled at clock ticks, they can be precisely reconstructed from a finite number of samples and then compared so as to determine the time interval between the two excitations. We have designed and constructed a two-channel time interval measurement device which allows independent timing of two events and evaluation of the time interval between them. The device has been constructed using commercially available components. The experimental results proved the concept. We have assessed the single-shot time interval measurement precision of 1.3 ps rms that corresponds to the time of arrival precision of 0.9 ps rms in each channel. The temperature drift of the measured time interval on temperature is lower than 0.5 ps/K, and the long term stability is better than +/-0.2 ps/h. These are to our knowledge the best values reported for the time interval measurement device. The results are in good agreement with the error budget based on the theoretical analysis.

Palaeoflood records of the last three centuries from the Pyeongchang and Dong rivers, South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Song-Hyun; Tanaka, Yukiya

2017-08-01

Slackwater deposits are paleostage indicators in paleoflood hydrology that have commonly been used in numerous studies to estimate the magnitude and frequency of flood events and to reconstruct paleoenvironments and paleohydrology. In this study, individual flood events along the Pyeongchang (PC) and Dong (D) rivers of South Korea were differentiated on the basis of changes in deposit color, grain size, organic content, and the existence of laminations. Based on 137Cs and 14C chronological data, 19 flood events have occurred at site PC since 1720, while 17 flood events have occurred at site D since 1815. At the PC study site, the average time interval between the flood events is 15.4 years and the average sediment accumulation rate is 9.7 mm/y. At study site D, the average time interval is 15 years and the average sediment accumulation rate is 11.6 mm/y. These high sediment accumulation rates are consistent with those in humid areas (e.g., Japan) and explain how slackwater deposits can be preserved despite erosion, bioturbation, and pedogenic processes. Based on the results, the study area was divided into three periods: (1) a relatively wet period (1720-1810 CE), (2) a dry period (1810-1960 CE), and (3) a wet period (1960 CE-present). The flood time intervals and average sediment accumulation rates of the eighteenth century were shorter and higher than those of the nineteenth century. This suggests that on the Korean Peninsula, the paleoclimate of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was wetter than that from the nineteenth century to the early twentieth century.

A semi-automated method for rapid detection of ripple events on interictal voltage discharges in the scalp electroencephalogram.

PubMed

Chu, Catherine J; Chan, Arthur; Song, Dan; Staley, Kevin J; Stufflebeam, Steven M; Kramer, Mark A

2017-02-01

High frequency oscillations are emerging as a clinically important indicator of epileptic networks. However, manual detection of these high frequency oscillations is difficult, time consuming, and subjective, especially in the scalp EEG, thus hindering further clinical exploration and application. Semi-automated detection methods augment manual detection by reducing inspection to a subset of time intervals. We propose a new method to detect high frequency oscillations that co-occur with interictal epileptiform discharges. The new method proceeds in two steps. The first step identifies candidate time intervals during which high frequency activity is increased. The second step computes a set of seven features for each candidate interval. These features require that the candidate event contain a high frequency oscillation approximately sinusoidal in shape, with at least three cycles, that co-occurs with a large amplitude discharge. Candidate events that satisfy these features are stored for validation through visual analysis. We evaluate the detector performance in simulation and on ten examples of scalp EEG data, and show that the proposed method successfully detects spike-ripple events, with high positive predictive value, low false positive rate, and high intra-rater reliability. The proposed method is less sensitive than the existing method of visual inspection, but much faster and much more reliable. Accurate and rapid detection of high frequency activity increases the clinical viability of this rhythmic biomarker of epilepsy. The proposed spike-ripple detector rapidly identifies candidate spike-ripple events, thus making clinical analysis of prolonged, multielectrode scalp EEG recordings tractable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A semi-automated method for rapid detection of ripple events on interictal voltage discharges in the scalp electroencephalogram

PubMed Central

Chu, Catherine. J.; Chan, Arthur; Song, Dan; Staley, Kevin J.; Stufflebeam, Steven M.; Kramer, Mark A.

2017-01-01

Summary Background High frequency oscillations are emerging as a clinically important indicator of epileptic networks. However, manual detection of these high frequency oscillations is difficult, time consuming, and subjective, especially in the scalp EEG, thus hindering further clinical exploration and application. Semi-automated detection methods augment manual detection by reducing inspection to a subset of time intervals. We propose a new method to detect high frequency oscillations that co-occur with interictal epileptiform discharges. New Method The new method proceeds in two steps. The first step identifies candidate time intervals during which high frequency activity is increased. The second step computes a set of seven features for each candidate interval. These features require that the candidate event contain a high frequency oscillation approximately sinusoidal in shape, with at least three cycles, that co-occurs with a large amplitude discharge. Candidate events that satisfy these features are stored for validation through visual analysis. Results We evaluate the detector performance in simulation and on ten examples of scalp EEG data, and show that the proposed method successfully detects spike-ripple events, with high positive predictive value, low false positive rate, and high intra-rater reliability. Comparison with Existing Method The proposed method is less sensitive than the existing method of visual inspection, but much faster and much more reliable. Conclusions Accurate and rapid detection of high frequency activity increases the clinical viability of this rhythmic biomarker of epilepsy. The proposed spike-ripple detector rapidly identifies candidate spike-ripple events, thus making clinical analysis of prolonged, multielectrode scalp EEG recordings tractable. PMID:27988323

A biophysical model examining the role of low-voltage-activated potassium currents in shaping the responses of vestibular ganglion neurons.

PubMed

Hight, Ariel E; Kalluri, Radha

2016-08-01

The vestibular nerve is characterized by two broad groups of neurons that differ in the timing of their interspike intervals; some fire at highly regular intervals, whereas others fire at highly irregular intervals. Heterogeneity in ion channel properties has been proposed as shaping these firing patterns (Highstein SM, Politoff AL. Brain Res 150: 182-187, 1978; Smith CE, Goldberg JM. Biol Cybern 54: 41-51, 1986). Kalluri et al. (J Neurophysiol 104: 2034-2051, 2010) proposed that regularity is controlled by the density of low-voltage-activated potassium currents (IKL). To examine the impact of IKL on spike timing regularity, we implemented a single-compartment model with three conductances known to be present in the vestibular ganglion: transient sodium (gNa), low-voltage-activated potassium (gKL), and high-voltage-activated potassium (gKH). Consistent with in vitro observations, removing gKL depolarized resting potential, increased input resistance and membrane time constant, and converted current step-evoked firing patterns from transient (1 spike at current onset) to sustained (many spikes). Modeled neurons were driven with a time-varying synaptic conductance that captured the random arrival times and amplitudes of glutamate-driven synaptic events. In the presence of gKL, spiking occurred only in response to large events with fast onsets. Models without gKL exhibited greater integration by responding to the superposition of rapidly arriving events. Three synaptic conductance were modeled, each with different kinetics to represent a variety of different synaptic processes. In response to all three types of synaptic conductance, models containing gKL produced spike trains with irregular interspike intervals. Only models lacking gKL when driven by rapidly arriving small excitatory postsynaptic currents were capable of generating regular spiking. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Aspirin Does Not Increase Heart Failure Events in Heart Failure Patients: From the WARCEF Trial.

PubMed

Teerlink, John R; Qian, Min; Bello, Natalie A; Freudenberger, Ronald S; Levin, Bruce; Di Tullio, Marco R; Graham, Susan; Mann, Douglas L; Sacco, Ralph L; Mohr, J P; Lip, Gregory Y H; Labovitz, Arthur J; Lee, Seitetz C; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lok, Dirk J; Anker, Stefan D; Thompson, John L P; Homma, Shunichi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether aspirin increases heart failure (HF) hospitalization or death in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB). Because of its cyclooxygenase inhibiting properties, aspirin has been postulated to increase HF events in patients treated with ACE inhibitors or ARBs. However, no large randomized trial has addressed the clinical relevance of this issue. We compared aspirin and warfarin for HF events (hospitalization, death, or both) in the 2,305 patients enrolled in the WARCEF (Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction) trial (98.6% on ACE inhibitor or ARB treatment), using conventional Cox models for time to first event (489 events). In addition, to examine multiple HF hospitalizations, we used 2 extended Cox models, a conditional model and a total time marginal model, in time to recurrent event analyses (1,078 events). After adjustment for baseline covariates, aspirin- and warfarin-treated patients did not differ in time to first HF event (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 1.04; p = 0.117) or first hospitalization alone (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 1.06; p = 0.168). The extended Cox models also found no significant differences in all HF events or in HF hospitalizations alone after adjustment for covariates. Among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the WARCEF trial, there was no significant difference in risk of HF events between the aspirin and warfarin-treated patients. (Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial [WARCEF]; NCT00041938). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. All rights reserved.

Pigeons' Memory for Number of Events: Effects of Intertrial Interval and Delay Interval Illumination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hope, Chris; Santi, Angelo

2004-01-01

In Experiment 1, pigeons were trained at a 0-s baseline delay to discriminate sequences of light flashes (illumination of the feeder) that varied in number but not time (2f/4s and 8f/4s). During training, the intertrial interval was illuminated by the houselight for Group Light, but it was dark for Group Dark. Testing conducted with dark delay…

Particle behavior simulation in thermophoresis phenomena by direct simulation Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Takao

2014-07-01

A particle motion considering thermophoretic force is simulated by using direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Thermophoresis phenomena, which occur for a particle size of 1 μm, are treated in this paper. The problem of thermophoresis simulation is computation time which is proportional to the collision frequency. Note that the time step interval becomes much small for the simulation considering the motion of large size particle. Thermophoretic forces calculated by DSMC method were reported, but the particle motion was not computed because of the small time step interval. In this paper, the molecule-particle collision model, which computes the collision between a particle and multi molecules in a collision event, is considered. The momentum transfer to the particle is computed with a collision weight factor, where the collision weight factor means the number of molecules colliding with a particle in a collision event. The large time step interval is adopted by considering the collision weight factor. Furthermore, the large time step interval is about million times longer than the conventional time step interval of the DSMC method when a particle size is 1 μm. Therefore, the computation time becomes about one-millionth. We simulate the graphite particle motion considering thermophoretic force by DSMC-Neutrals (Particle-PLUS neutral module) with above the collision weight factor, where DSMC-Neutrals is commercial software adopting DSMC method. The size and the shape of the particle are 1 μm and a sphere, respectively. The particle-particle collision is ignored. We compute the thermophoretic forces in Ar and H2 gases of a pressure range from 0.1 to 100 mTorr. The results agree well with Gallis' analytical results. Note that Gallis' analytical result for continuum limit is the same as Waldmann's result.

Probing interval timing with scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG).

PubMed

Ng, Kwun Kei; Penney, Trevor B

2014-01-01

Humans, and other animals, are able to easily learn the durations of events and the temporal relationships among them in spite of the absence of a dedicated sensory organ for time. This chapter summarizes the investigation of timing and time perception using scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG), a non-invasive technique that measures brain electrical potentials on a millisecond time scale. Over the past several decades, much has been learned about interval timing through the examination of the characteristic features of averaged EEG signals (i.e., event-related potentials, ERPs) elicited in timing paradigms. For example, the mismatch negativity (MMN) and omission potential (OP) have been used to study implicit and explicit timing, respectively, the P300 has been used to investigate temporal memory updating, and the contingent negative variation (CNV) has been used as an index of temporal decision making. In sum, EEG measures provide biomarkers of temporal processing that allow researchers to probe the cognitive and neural substrates underlying time perception.

Interval Timing Is Preserved Despite Circadian Desynchrony in Rats: Constant Light and Heavy Water Studies.

PubMed

Petersen, Christian C; Mistlberger, Ralph E

2017-08-01

The mechanisms that enable mammals to time events that recur at 24-h intervals (circadian timing) and at arbitrary intervals in the seconds-to-minutes range (interval timing) are thought to be distinct at the computational and neurobiological levels. Recent evidence that disruption of circadian rhythmicity by constant light (LL) abolishes interval timing in mice challenges this assumption and suggests a critical role for circadian clocks in short interval timing. We sought to confirm and extend this finding by examining interval timing in rats in which circadian rhythmicity was disrupted by long-term exposure to LL or by chronic intake of 25% D 2 O. Adult, male Sprague-Dawley rats were housed in a light-dark (LD) cycle or in LL until free-running circadian rhythmicity was markedly disrupted or abolished. The rats were then trained and tested on 15- and 30-sec peak-interval procedures, with water restriction used to motivate task performance. Interval timing was found to be unimpaired in LL rats, but a weak circadian activity rhythm was apparently rescued by the training procedure, possibly due to binge feeding that occurred during the 15-min water access period that followed training each day. A second group of rats in LL were therefore restricted to 6 daily meals scheduled at 4-h intervals. Despite a complete absence of circadian rhythmicity in this group, interval timing was again unaffected. To eliminate all possible temporal cues, we tested a third group of rats in LL by using a pseudo-randomized schedule. Again, interval timing remained accurate. Finally, rats tested in LD received 25% D 2 O in place of drinking water. This markedly lengthened the circadian period and caused a failure of LD entrainment but did not disrupt interval timing. These results indicate that interval timing in rats is resistant to disruption by manipulations of circadian timekeeping previously shown to impair interval timing in mice.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tavani, M.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.

We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at −100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2 σ flux upper limitmore » in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10{sup −8} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval −150/−30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi -GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.« less

An Event Restriction Interval Theory of Tense

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beamer, Brandon Robert

2012-01-01

This dissertation presents a novel theory of tense and tense-like constructions. It is named after a key theoretical component of the theory, the event restriction interval. In Event Restriction Interval (ERI) Theory, sentences are semantically evaluated relative to an index which contains two key intervals, the evaluation interval and the event…

Multivariable nonlinear analysis of foreign exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

2003-05-01

We analyze the multivariable time series of foreign exchange rates. These are price movements that have often been analyzed, and dealing time intervals and spreads between bid and ask prices. Considering dealing time intervals as event timing such as neurons’ firings, we use raster plots (RPs) and peri-stimulus time histograms (PSTHs) which are popular methods in the field of neurophysiology. Introducing special processings to obtaining RPs and PSTHs time histograms for analyzing exchange rates time series, we discover that there exists dynamical interaction among three variables. We also find that adopting multivariables leads to improvements of prediction accuracy.

Atlas of interoccurrence intervals for selected thresholds of daily precipitation in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.

2003-01-01

A Poisson process model is used to define the distribution of interoccurrence intervals of daily precipitation in Texas. A precipitation interoccurrence interval is the time period between two successive rainfall events. Rainfall events are defined as daily precipitation equaling or exceeding a specified depth threshold. Ten precipitation thresholds are considered: 0.05, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 inches. Site-specific mean interoccurrence interval and ancillary statistics are presented for each threshold and for each of 1,306 National Weather Service daily precipitation gages. Maps depicting the spatial variation across Texas of the mean interoccurrence interval for each threshold are presented. The percent change from the statewide standard deviation of the interoccurrence intervals to the root-mean-square error ranges from a magnitude minimum of (negative) -24 to a magnitude maximum of -60 percent for the 0.05- and 2.0-inch thresholds, respectively. Because of the substantial negative percent change, the maps are considered more reliable estimators of the mean interoccurrence interval for most locations in Texas than the statewide mean values.

Tropical shoreline ice in the late Cambrian: Implications for earth's climate between the Cambrian Explosion and the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Anthony C.; MacKey, T.J.; Cowan, Clinton A.; Fox, David L.

2010-01-01

Middle to late Cambrian time (ca. 513 to 488 Ma) is characterized by an unstable plateau in biodiversity, when depauperate shelf faunas suffered repeated extinctions. This poorly understood interval separates the Cambrian Explosion from the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event and is generally regarded as a time of sustained greenhouse conditions. We present evidence that suggests a drastically different climate during this enigmatic interval: Features indicative of meteoric ice are well preserved in late Cambrian equatorial beach deposits that correspond to one of the shelf extinction events. Thus, the middle to late Cambrian Earth was at least episodically cold and might best be considered a muted analogue to the environmental extremes that characterized the Proterozoic, even though cooling in the two periods may have occurred in response to different triggers. Such later Cambrian conditions may have significantly impacted evolution preceding the Ordovician radiation.

Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

PubMed

Scolas, Sylvie; El Ghouch, Anouar; Legrand, Catherine; Oulhaj, Abderrahim

2016-03-30

In standard survival analysis, it is generally assumed that every individual will experience someday the event of interest. However, this is not always the case, as some individuals may not be susceptible to this event. Also, in medical studies, it is frequent that patients come to scheduled interviews and that the time to the event is only known to occur between two visits. That is, the data are interval-censored with a cure fraction. Variable selection in such a setting is of outstanding interest. Covariates impacting the survival are not necessarily the same as those impacting the probability to experience the event. The objective of this paper is to develop a parametric but flexible statistical model to analyze data that are interval-censored and include a fraction of cured individuals when the number of potential covariates may be large. We use the parametric mixture cure model with an accelerated failure time regression model for the survival, along with the extended generalized gamma for the error term. To overcome the issue of non-stable and non-continuous variable selection procedures, we extend the adaptive LASSO to our model. By means of simulation studies, we show good performance of our method and discuss the behavior of estimates with varying cure and censoring proportion. Lastly, our proposed method is illustrated with a real dataset studying the time until conversion to mild cognitive impairment, a possible precursor of Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pulse pile-up identification and reconstruction for liquid scintillator based neutron detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X. L.; Modamio, V.; Nyberg, J.; Valiente-Dobón, J. J.; Nishada, Q.; de Angelis, G.; Agramunt, J.; Egea, F. J.; Erduran, M. N.; Ertürk, S.; de France, G.; Gadea, A.; González, V.; Goasduff, A.; Hüyük, T.; Jaworski, G.; Moszyński, M.; Di Nitto, A.; Palacz, M.; Söderström, P.-A.; Sanchis, E.; Triossi, A.; Wadsworth, R.

2018-07-01

The issue of pulse pile-up is frequently encountered in nuclear experiments involving high counting rates, which will distort the pulse shapes and the energy spectra. A digital method of off-line processing of pile-up pulses is presented. The pile-up pulses were firstly identified by detecting the downward-going zero-crossings in the first-order derivative of the original signal, and then the constituent pulses were reconstructed based on comparing the pile-up pulse with four models that are generated by combining pairs of neutron and γ standard pulses together with a controllable time interval. The accuracy of this method in resolving the pile-up events was investigated as a function of the time interval between two pulses constituting a pile-up event. The obtained results show that the method is capable of disentangling two pulses with a time interval among them down to 20 ns, as well as classifying them as neutrons or γ rays. Furthermore, the error of reconstructing pile-up pulses could be kept below 6% when successive peaks were separated by more than 50 ns. By applying the method in a high counting rate of pile-up events measurement of the NEutron Detector Array (NEDA), it was empirically found that this method can reconstruct the pile-up pulses and perform neutron- γ discrimination quite accurately. It can also significantly correct the distorted pulse height spectrum due to pile-up events.

The effect of hospital care on early survival after penetrating trauma.

PubMed

Clark, David E; Doolittle, Peter C; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2014-12-01

The effectiveness of emergency medical interventions can be best evaluated using time-to-event statistical methods with time-varying covariates (TVC), but this approach is complicated by uncertainty about the actual times of death. We therefore sought to evaluate the effect of hospital intervention on mortality after penetrating trauma using a method that allowed for interval censoring of the precise times of death. Data on persons with penetrating trauma due to interpersonal assault were combined from the 2008 to 2010 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the 2004 to 2010 National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models for survival time (t SURV ) were estimated, with TVC assumed to have constant effects for specified time intervals following hospital arrival. The Weibull model was repeated with t SURV interval-censored to reflect uncertainty about the precise times of death, using an imputation method to accommodate interval censoring along with TVC. All models showed that mortality was increased by older age, female sex, firearm mechanism, and injuries involving the head/neck or trunk. Uncensored models showed a paradoxical increase in mortality associated with the first hour in a hospital. The interval-censored model showed that mortality was markedly reduced after admission to a hospital, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63, 0.73) during the first 30 min declining to a HR of 0.01 after 120 min. Admission to a verified level I trauma center (compared to other hospitals in the NTDB) was associated with a further reduction in mortality, with a HR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.82, 0.97). Time-to-event models with TVC and interval censoring can be used to estimate the effect of hospital care on early mortality after penetrating trauma or other acute medical conditions and could potentially be used for interhospital comparisons.

High resolution time interval meter

DOEpatents

Martin, A.D.

1986-05-09

Method and apparatus are provided for measuring the time interval between two events to a higher resolution than reliability available from conventional circuits and component. An internal clock pulse is provided at a frequency compatible with conventional component operating frequencies for reliable operation. Lumped constant delay circuits are provided for generating outputs at delay intervals corresponding to the desired high resolution. An initiation START pulse is input to generate first high resolution data. A termination STOP pulse is input to generate second high resolution data. Internal counters count at the low frequency internal clock pulse rate between the START and STOP pulses. The first and second high resolution data are logically combined to directly provide high resolution data to one counter and correct the count in the low resolution counter to obtain a high resolution time interval measurement.

ELECTRONIC SYSTEM

DOEpatents

Robison, G.H. et al.

1960-11-15

An electronic system is described for indicating the occurrence of a plurality of electrically detectable events within predetermined time intervals. It is comprised of separate input means electrically associated with the events under observation: an electronic channel associated with each input means including control means and indicating means; timing means associated with each of the input means and the control means and adapted to derive a signal from the input means and apply it after a predetermined time to the control means to effect deactivation of each of the channels; and means for resetting the system to its initial condition after observation of each group of events.

Timing of late Holocene surface rupture of the Wairau Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zachariasen, J.; Berryman, K.; Langridge, Rob; Prentice, C.; Rymer, M.; Stirling, M.; Villamor, P.

2006-01-01

Three trenches excavated across the central portion of the right-lateral strike-slip Wairau Fault in South Island, New Zealand, exposed a complex set of fault strands that have displaced a sequence of late Holocene alluvial and colluvial deposits. Abundant charcoal fragments provide age control for various stratigraphic horizons dating back to c. 5610 yr ago. Faulting relations from the Wadsworth trench show that the most recent surface rupture event occurred at least 1290 yr and at most 2740 yr ago. Drowned trees in landslide-dammed Lake Chalice, in combination with charcoal from the base of an unfaulted colluvial wedge at Wadsworth trench, suggest a narrower time bracket for this event of 1811-2301 cal. yr BP. The penultimate faulting event occurred between c. 2370 and 3380 yr, and possibly near 2680 ?? 60 cal. yr BP, when data from both the Wadsworth and Dillon trenches are combined. Two older events have been recognised from Dillon trench but remain poorly dated. A probable elapsed time of at least 1811 yr since the last surface rupture, and an average slip rate estimate for the Wairau Fault of 3-5 mm/yr, suggests that at least 5.4 m and up to 11.5 m of elastic shear strain has accumulated since the last rupture. This is near to or greater than the single-event displacement estimates of 5-7 m. The average recurrence interval for surface rupture of the fault determined from the trench data is 1150-1400 yr. Although the uncertainties in the timing of faulting events and variability in inter-event times remain high, the time elapsed since the last event is in the order of 1-2 times the average recurrence interval, implying that the Wairau Fault is near the end of its interseismic period. ?? The Royal Society of New Zealand 2006.

Using Low-Frequency Earthquake Families on the San Andreas Fault as Deep Creepmeters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, A. M.; Beeler, N. M.; Bletery, Q.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, D. R.

2018-01-01

The central section of the San Andreas Fault hosts tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) similar to subduction zone environments. LFEs are often interpreted as persistent regions that repeatedly fail during the aseismic shear of the surrounding fault allowing them to be used as creepmeters. We test this idea by using the recurrence intervals of individual LFEs within LFE families to estimate the timing, duration, recurrence interval, slip, and slip rate associated with inferred slow slip events. We formalize the definition of a creepmeter and determine whether this definition is consistent with our observations. We find that episodic families reflect surrounding creep over the interevent time, while the continuous families and the short time scale bursts that occur as part of the episodic families do not. However, when these families are evaluated on time scales longer than the interevent time these events can also be used to meter slip. A straightforward interpretation of episodic families is that they define sections of the fault where slip is distinctly episodic in well-defined slow slip events that slip 16 times the long-term rate. In contrast, the frequent short-term bursts of the continuous and short time scale episodic families likely do not represent individual creep events but rather are persistent asperities that are driven to failure by quasi-continuous creep on the surrounding fault. Finally, we find that the moment-duration scaling of our inferred creep events are inconsistent with the proposed linear moment-duration scaling. However, caution must be exercised when attempting to determine scaling with incomplete knowledge of scale.

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1989-01-01

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

Pesticide leaching via subsurface drains in different hydrologic situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajíček, Antonín; Fučík, Petr; Liška, Marek; Dobiáš, Jakub

2017-04-01

esticides and their degradates in tile drainage waters were studied in two small, predominantly agricultural, tile-drained subcatchments in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands, Czech Republic. The goal was to evaluate their occurence and the dymamics of their concentrations in drainage waters in different hydrologic situations using discharge and concentration monitoring together with 18O and 2H isotope analysis for Mean Residence Time (MRT) estimation and hydrograph separations during rainfall - runoff (R-R) events. The drainage and stream discharges were measured continuously at the closing outlets of three drainage groups and one small stream. During periods of prevailing base and interflow, samples were collected manually in two-week intervals for isotope analysis and during the spraying period (March to October) also for pesticide analysis. During R-R events, samples were taken by automatic samplers in intervals varying from 20 min (summer) to 1 hour (winter). To enable isotopic analysis, precipitation was sampled both manually at two-week intervals and also using an automatic rainfall sampler which collected samples of precipitation during the R-R events at 20-min. intervals. The isotopic analysis showed, that MRT of drainage base flow and interflow varies from 2,2 to 3,3 years, while MRT of base flow and interflow in surface stream is several months. During R-R events, the proportion of event water varied from 0 to 60 % in both drainage and surface runoff. The occurrence of pesticides and their degradates in drainage waters is strongly dependent on the hydrologic situation. While degradates were permanently present in drainage waters in high but varying concentrations according to instantaneous runoff composition, parent matters were detected almost exclusively during R-R events. In periods with prevailing base flow and interflow (grab samples), especially ESA forms of chloracetanilide degradates occured in high concentrations in all samples. Average sum of degradates varried between 1 730 - 5 760 ng/l. During R-R events, pesticide concentration varried according to runoff composition and time between sprayng and event. Event with no protortiom of event water in drainage runoff were typical by incereas in degradates concentrations (up to 20 000ng/l) and none or low occurence of parent matters. Events with significant event water proportion in drainage runoff were characterised by decrease in degradates concentrations and (when event happened soon affter spraying) by presence of paternal pesticides in drinage runoff. Instanteous concentrations of paren matters can be extremely high in that causes, up to 23 000 ng/l in drainage waters and up to 40 000 ng/l in small stream. Above results suggest that drainage systems could act as significant source of pesticide leaching. When parent compounds leaches via tile drainage systems, there are some border conditions that must exist together such as the occurence of R-R event soon after the pests application and the presence of event water (or water with short residence time in the catchment) in the drainage runoff.

Precipitation-Frequency and Discharge-Frequency Relations for Basins Less than 32 Square Miles in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.

2008-01-01

Precipitation-frequency and discharge-frequency relations for small drainage basins with areas less than 32 square miles in Kansas were evaluated to reduce the uncertainty of discharge-frequency estimates. Gaged-discharge records were used to develop discharge-frequency equations for the ratio of discharge to drainage area (Q/A) values using data from basins with variable soil permeability, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. Soil permeability and mean annual precipitation are the dominant basin characteristics in the multiple linear regression analyses. In addition, 28 discharge measurements at ungaged sites by indirect surveying methods and by velocity meters also were used in this analysis to relate precipitation-recurrence interval to discharge-recurrence interval. Precipitation-recurrence interval for each of these discharge measurements were estimated from weather-radar estimates of precipitation and from nearby raingages. Time of concentration for each basin for each of the ungaged sites was computed and used to determine the precipitation-recurrence interval based on precipitation depth and duration. The ratio of discharge/drainage area (Q/A) value for each event was then assigned to that precipitation-recurrence interval. The relation between the ratio of discharge/drainage area (Q/A) and precipitation-recurrence interval for all 28 measured events resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.79. Using basins less than 5.4 mi2 only, the correlation decreases to 0.74. However, when basins greater than 5.4 and less than 32 mi2 are examined the relation improves to a correlation coefficient of 0.95. There were a sufficient number of discharge and radar-measured precipitation events for both the 5-year (8 events) and the 100-year (11 events) recurrence intervals to examine the effect of basin characteristics on the Q/A values for basins less than 32 mi2. At the 5-year precipitation-/discharge-recurrence interval, channel slope was a significant predictor (r=0.99) of Q/A. Permeability (r=0.68) also had a significant effect on Q/A values for the 5-year recurrence interval. At the 100-year recurrence interval, permeability, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation did not have a significant effect on Q/A; however, time of concentration was a significant factor in determining Q/A for the 100-year events with greater times of concentration resulting in lower Q/A values. Additional high-recurrence interval (5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year) precipitation/discharge data are needed to confirm these relations suggested above. Discharge data with attendant basin-wide precipitation data from precipitation-radar estimates provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of basin characteristics on the relation between precipitation recurrence interval and discharge-recurrence interval. Discharge-frequency values from the Q/A equations, the rational method, and the Kansas discharge-frequency equations (KFFE) were compared to 28 measured weather-radar precipitation-/discharge-frequency values. The association between precipitation frequency from weather-radar estimates and the frequency of the resulting discharge was shown in these comparisons. The measured and Q/A equation computed discharges displayed the best equality from low to high discharges of the three methods. Here the slope of the line was nearly 1:1 (y=0.9844x0.9677). Comparisons with the rational method produced a slope greater than 1:1 (y=0.0722x1.235), and the KFFE equations produced a slope less than 1:1 (y=5.9103x0.7475). The Q/A equation standard error of prediction averaged 0.1346 log units for the 5.4-to 32-square-mile group and 0.0944 log units for the less than 5.4-square mile group. The KFFE standard error averaged 0.2107 log units for the less-than-30-square-mile equations. Using the Q/A equations for determining discharge frequency values for ungaged sites thus appears to be a good alternative to the other two methods because of this s

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

A pan-Precambrian link between deglaciation and environmental oxidation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raub, T.J.; Kirschvink, J.L.

2007-01-01

Despite a continuous increase in solar luminosity to the present, Earth’s glacial record appears to become more frequent, though less severe, over geological time. At least two of the three major Precambrian glacial intervals were exceptionally intense, with solid evidence for widespread sea ice on or near the equator, well within a “Snowball Earth” zone produced by ice-albedo runaway in energy-balance models. The end of the first unambiguously low-latitude glaciation, the early Paleoproterozoic Makganyene event, is associated intimately with the first solid evidence for global oxygenation, including the world’s largest sedimentary manganese deposit. Subsequent low-latitude deglaciations during the Cryogenian interval of the Neoproterozoic Era are also associated with progressive oxidation, and these young Precambrian ice ages coincide with the time when basal animal phyla were diversifying. However, specifically testing hypotheses of cause and effect between Earth’s Neoproterozoic biosphere and glaciation is complicated because large and rapid True Polar Wander events appear to punctuate Neoproterozoic time and may have episodically dominated earlier and later intervals as well, rendering geographic reconstruction and age correlation challenging except for an exceptionally well-defined global paleomagnetic database.

Characterizing the variability of benthic foraminifera in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico following the Deepwater Horizon event (2010-2012).

PubMed

Schwing, P T; O'Malley, B J; Romero, I C; Martínez-Colón, M; Hastings, D W; Glabach, M A; Hladky, E M; Greco, A; Hollander, D J

2017-01-01

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) event in 2010 subsurface hydrocarbon intrusions (1000-1300 m) and an order of magnitude increase in flocculent hydrocarbon deposition caused increased concentrations of hydrocarbons in continental slope sediments. This study sought to characterize the variability [density, Fisher's alpha (S), equitability (E), Shannon (H)] of benthic foraminifera following the DWH event. A series of sediment cores were collected at two sites in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from 2010 to 2012. At each site, three cores were utilized for benthic faunal analysis, organic geochemistry, and redox metal chemistry, respectively. The surface intervals (∼0-10 mm) of the sedimentary records collected in December 2010 at DSH08 and February 2011 at PCB06 were characterized by significant decreases in foraminiferal density, S, E, and H, relative to the down-core intervals as well as previous surveys. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) analysis suggested that a 3-fold increase in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentration in the surface interval, relative to the down-core interval, was the environmental driver of benthic foraminiferal variability. These records suggested that the benthic foraminiferal recovery time, following an event such as the DWH, was on the order of 1-2 years.

Maximum likelihood estimation for semiparametric transformation models with interval-censored data

PubMed Central

Mao, Lu; Lin, D. Y.

2016-01-01

Abstract Interval censoring arises frequently in clinical, epidemiological, financial and sociological studies, where the event or failure of interest is known only to occur within an interval induced by periodic monitoring. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on the interval-censored failure time through a broad class of semiparametric transformation models that encompasses proportional hazards and proportional odds models. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models with an arbitrary number of monitoring times for each subject. We devise an EM-type algorithm that converges stably, even in the presence of time-dependent covariates, and show that the estimators for the regression parameters are consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient with an easily estimated covariance matrix. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our procedures through simulation studies and application to an HIV/AIDS study conducted in Thailand. PMID:27279656

A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

2016-12-01

Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal deposition rate exhibits changes over time coincident with major climatic and vegetation shifts over the past 10,000 years. Ongoing work will use the regional charcoal deposition rate to estimate changes in biomass burned as a function of climate variability and regional vegetation pattern.

Timing of follicular phase events and the postovulatory progesterone rise following synchronisation of oestrus in cows.

PubMed

Starbuck, G R; Gutierrez, C G; Peters, A R; Mann, G E

2006-07-01

In cows the timing of both ovulation and the subsequent postovulatory progesterone rise are critical to successful fertilisation and early embryo development. The aim of this study was to determine the degree of variability in the timing of ovulation relative to other follicular phase events and to determine how variations in the timing of follicular phase events contribute to the timing of the postovulatory progesterone rise. Plasma concentrations of progesterone, oestradiol and luteinising hormone (LH) and the timing of oestrus and ovulation were determined following induction of luteolysis were determined in 18 mature, non-lactating Holstein-Friesian cows. Four cows were excluded on the basis of abnormal reproductive function. In the remaining 14 cows oestrus occurred at 57.4+/-4.3h and the LH surge at 54.6+/-4.0h following luteolysis (progesterone <1ngmL(-1)) followed by a fall in circulating oestradiol concentration at 64.6+/-4.4h. Cows ovulated at 88.0+/-4.7h with the postovulatory progesterone rise (to >1ngmL(-1)) occurring 159+/-7.2h after luteolysis. There was considerable variation in the timing of ovulation following luteolysis (range 64-136h) onset of oestrus (range 24-40h) and onset of the LH surge (range 24-44h). Cows were then split on the basis of interval from progesterone fall to progesterone rise giving groups (n=7 per group) with intervals of 180.6+/-6.7 and 138.3+/-5.7h (P<0.001). Between groups, both the intervals from luteolysis to ovulation (98.3+/-6.9 vs 77.7+/-3.4h; P<0.05) and ovulation to progesterone rise (82.3+/-4.2 vs. 60.6+/-5.5h; P<0.01) were longer in late rise cows. There was no difference between groups in the interval from oestrus or LH surge to ovulation. In conclusion the results of this study further highlight the high variability that exists in the timing and interrelationships of follicular phase events in the modern dairy cow, reemphasising the challenges that exist in optimising mating strategies. However, the data do suggest that in cows with poor post ovulatory progesterone secretion, the key problem appears to be poor post ovulatory development rather than a delay in ovulation.

A simple physical model for deep moonquake occurrence times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, R.C.; Bills, B.G.; Johnson, C.L.

2010-01-01

The physical process that results in moonquakes is not yet fully understood. The periodic occurrence times of events from individual clusters are clearly related to tidal stress, but also exhibit departures from the temporal regularity this relationship would seem to imply. Even simplified models that capture some of the relevant physics require a large number of variables. However, a single, easily accessible variable - the time interval I(n) between events - can be used to reveal behavior not readily observed using typical periodicity analyses (e.g., Fourier analyses). The delay-coordinate (DC) map, a particularly revealing way to display data from a time series, is a map of successive intervals: I(n+. 1) plotted vs. I(n). We use a DC approach to characterize the dynamics of moonquake occurrence. Moonquake-like DC maps can be reproduced by combining sequences of synthetic events that occur with variable probability at tidal periods. Though this model gives a good description of what happens, it has little physical content, thus providing only little insight into why moonquakes occur. We investigate a more mechanistic model. In this study, we present a series of simple models of deep moonquake occurrence, with consideration of both tidal stress and stress drop during events. We first examine the behavior of inter-event times in a delay-coordinate context, and then examine the output, in that context, of a sequence of simple models of tidal forcing and stress relief. We find, as might be expected, that the stress relieved by moonquakes influences their occurrence times. Our models may also provide an explanation for the opposite-polarity events observed at some clusters. ?? 2010.

Asthma exacerbations in children immediately following stressful life events: a Cox's hierarchical regression.

PubMed

Sandberg, S; Järvenpää, S; Penttinen, A; Paton, J Y; McCann, D C

2004-12-01

A recent prospective study of children with asthma employing a within subject, over time analysis using dynamic logistic regression showed that severely negative life events significantly increased the risk of an acute exacerbation during the subsequent 6 week period. The timing of the maximum risk depended on the degree of chronic psychosocial stress also present. A hierarchical Cox regression analysis was undertaken to examine whether there were any immediate effects of negative life events in children without a background of high chronic stress. Sixty children with verified chronic asthma were followed prospectively for 18 months with continuous monitoring of asthma by daily symptom diaries and peak flow measurements, accompanied by repeated interview assessments of life events. The key outcome measures were asthma exacerbations and severely negative life events. An immediate effect evident within the first 2 days following a severely negative life event increased the risk of a new asthma attack by a factor of 4.69, 95% confidence interval 2.33 to 9.44 (p<0.001) [corrected] In the period 3-10 days after a severe event there was no increased risk of an asthma attack (p = 0.5). In addition to the immediate effect, an increased risk of 1.81 (95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.65) [corrected] was found 5-7 weeks after a severe event (p = 0.002). This is consistent with earlier findings. There was a statistically significant variation due to unobserved factors in the incidence of asthma attacks between the children. The use of statistical methods capable of investigating short time lags showed that stressful life events significantly increase the risk of a new asthma attack immediately after the event; a more delayed increase in risk was also evident 5-7 weeks later.

Impacts and the origin of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oberbeck, Verne R.; Fogleman, Guy

1989-01-01

Consideration is given to the estimate of Maher and Stevenson (1988) of the time at which life could have developed on earth through chemical evolution within a time interval between impact events, assuming chemical or prebiotic evolution times of 100,000 to 10,000,000 yrs. An error in the equations used to determine the time periods between impact events in estimating this time is noted. A revised equation is presented and used to calculate the point in time at which impact events became infrequent enough for life to form. By using this equation, the finding of Maher and Stevenson that life could have first originated between 4,100 and 4,300 million years ago is changed to 3,700 to 4,000 million years ago.

Learning the Cardiac Cycle: Simultaneous Observations of Electrical and Mechanical Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenney, Richard Alec; Frey, Mary Anne Bassett

1980-01-01

Described is a method for integrating electrical and mechanical events of the cardiac cycle by measuring systolic time intervals, which involves simultaneous recording of the ECG, a phonocardiogram, and the contour of the carotid pulse. Both resting and stress change data are provided as bases for class discussion. (CS)

Glossary-HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

Glossary Precipitation Frequency Data Server GIS Grids Maps Time Series Temporals Documents Probable provides a measure of the average time between years (and not events) in which a particular value is RECCURENCE INTERVAL). ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES (AMS) - Time series of the largest precipitation amounts in a

Simulating recurrent event data with hazard functions defined on a total time scale.

PubMed

Jahn-Eimermacher, Antje; Ingel, Katharina; Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Preussler, Stella; Binder, Harald

2015-03-08

In medical studies with recurrent event data a total time scale perspective is often needed to adequately reflect disease mechanisms. This means that the hazard process is defined on the time since some starting point, e.g. the beginning of some disease, in contrast to a gap time scale where the hazard process restarts after each event. While techniques such as the Andersen-Gill model have been developed for analyzing data from a total time perspective, techniques for the simulation of such data, e.g. for sample size planning, have not been investigated so far. We have derived a simulation algorithm covering the Andersen-Gill model that can be used for sample size planning in clinical trials as well as the investigation of modeling techniques. Specifically, we allow for fixed and/or random covariates and an arbitrary hazard function defined on a total time scale. Furthermore we take into account that individuals may be temporarily insusceptible to a recurrent incidence of the event. The methods are based on conditional distributions of the inter-event times conditional on the total time of the preceeding event or study start. Closed form solutions are provided for common distributions. The derived methods have been implemented in a readily accessible R script. The proposed techniques are illustrated by planning the sample size for a clinical trial with complex recurrent event data. The required sample size is shown to be affected not only by censoring and intra-patient correlation, but also by the presence of risk-free intervals. This demonstrates the need for a simulation algorithm that particularly allows for complex study designs where no analytical sample size formulas might exist. The derived simulation algorithm is seen to be useful for the simulation of recurrent event data that follow an Andersen-Gill model. Next to the use of a total time scale, it allows for intra-patient correlation and risk-free intervals as are often observed in clinical trial data. Its application therefore allows the simulation of data that closely resemble real settings and thus can improve the use of simulation studies for designing and analysing studies.

Analysis of adverse events of renal impairment related to platinum-based compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database.

PubMed

Naganuma, Misa; Motooka, Yumi; Sasaoka, Sayaka; Hatahira, Haruna; Hasegawa, Shiori; Fukuda, Akiho; Nakao, Satoshi; Shimada, Kazuyo; Hirade, Koseki; Mori, Takayuki; Yoshimura, Tomoaki; Kato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro

2018-01-01

Platinum compounds cause several adverse events, such as nephrotoxicity, gastrointestinal toxicity, myelosuppression, ototoxicity, and neurotoxicity. We evaluated the incidence of renal impairment as adverse events are related to the administration of platinum compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. We analyzed adverse events associated with the use of platinum compounds reported from April 2004 to November 2016. The reporting odds ratio at 95% confidence interval was used to detect the signal for each renal impairment incidence. We evaluated the time-to-onset profile of renal impairment and assessed the hazard type using Weibull shape parameter and used the applied association rule mining technique to discover undetected relationships such as possible risk factor. In total, 430,587 reports in the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database were analyzed. The reporting odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for renal impairment resulting from the use of cisplatin, oxaliplatin, carboplatin, and nedaplatin were 2.7 (2.5-3.0), 0.6 (0.5-0.7), 0.8 (0.7-1.0), and 1.3 (0.8-2.1), respectively. The lower limit of the reporting odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for cisplatin was >1. The median (lower-upper quartile) onset time of renal impairment following the use of platinum-based compounds was 6.0-8.0 days. The Weibull shape parameter β and 95% confidence interval upper limit of oxaliplatin were <1. In the association rule mining, the score of lift for patients who were treated with cisplatin and co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed was high. Similarly, the scores for patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus were high. Our findings suggest a potential risk of renal impairment during cisplatin use in real-world setting. The present findings demonstrate that the incidence of renal impairment following cisplatin use should be closely monitored when patients are hypertensive or diabetic, or when they are co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed. In addition, healthcare professionals should closely assess a patient's background prior to treatment.

Time perception, attention, and memory: a selective review.

PubMed

Block, Richard A; Gruber, Ronald P

2014-06-01

This article provides a selective review of time perception research, mainly focusing on the authors' research. Aspects of psychological time include simultaneity, successiveness, temporal order, and duration judgments. In contrast to findings at interstimulus intervals or durations less than 3.0-5.0 s, there is little evidence for an "across-senses" effect of perceptual modality (visual vs. auditory) at longer intervals or durations. In addition, the flow of time (events) is a pervasive perceptual illusion, and we review evidence on that. Some temporal information is encoded All rights reserved. relatively automatically into memory: People can judge time-related attributes such as recency, frequency, temporal order, and duration of events. Duration judgments in prospective and retrospective paradigms reveal differences between them, as well as variables that moderate the processes involved. An attentional-gate model is needed to account for prospective judgments, and a contextual-change model is needed to account for retrospective judgments. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Magnetospheric State of Sawtooth Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, Shing F.; Tepper, Julia A.; Cai, Xia

2016-01-01

Magnetospheric sawtooth events, first identified in the early 1990s, are named for their characteristic appearance of multiple quasiperiodic intervals of slow decrease followed by sharp increase of proton differential energy fluxes in the geosynchronous region. The successive proton flux oscillations have been interpreted as recurrences of stretching and dipolarization of the nightside geomagnetic field. Due to their often extended intervals with 210 cycles, sawteeth occurrences are sometimes referred to as a magnetospheric mode. While studies of sawtooth events over the past two decades have yielded a wealth of information about such events, the magnetospheric state conditions for the occurrence of sawtooth events and how sawtooth oscillations may depend on the magnetospheric state conditions remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the characteristic magnetospheric state conditions (specified by Psw interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Btot, IMF Bz Vsw, AE, Kp and Dst, all time shifted with respect to one another) associated with the intervals before, during, and after sawteeth occurrences. Applying a previously developed statistical technique, we have determined the most probable magnetospheric states propitious for the development and occurrence of sawtooth events, respectively. The statistically determined sawtooth magnetospheric state has also been validated by using out-of-sample events, confirming the notion that sawtooth intervals might represent a particular global state of the magnetosphere. We propose that the sawtooth state of the magnetosphere may be a state of marginal stability in which a slight enhancement in the loading rate of an otherwise continuous loading process can send the magnetosphere into the marginally unstable regime, causing it to shed limited amount of energy quickly and return to the marginally stable regime with the loading process continuing. Sawtooth oscillations result as the magnetosphere switches between the marginally stable (loading) and unstable (unloading) phases.

Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

2005-01-01

We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Compilation and Analysis of 20 and 30 GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1996-01-01

The purpose of the propagation studies within the ACTS Project Office is to acquire 20 and 30 GHz rain fade statistics using the ACTS beacon links received at the NGS (NASA Ground Station) in Cleveland. Other than the raw, statistically unprocessed rain fade events that occur in real time, relevant rain fade statistics derived from such events are the cumulative rain fade statistics as well as fade duration statistics (beyond given fade thresholds) over monthly and yearly time intervals. Concurrent with the data logging exercise, monthly maximum rainfall levels recorded at the US Weather Service at Hopkins Airport are appended to the database to facilitate comparison of observed fade statistics with those predicted by the ACTS Rain Attenuation Model. Also, the raw fade data will be in a format, complete with documentation, for use by other investigators who require realistic fade event evolution in time for simulation purposes or further analysis for comparisons with other rain fade prediction models, etc. The raw time series data from the 20 and 30 GHz beacon signals is purged of non relevant data intervals where no rain fading has occurred. All other data intervals which contain rain fade events are archived with the accompanying time stamps. The definition of just what constitutes a rain fade event will be discussed later. The archived data serves two purposes. First, all rain fade event data is recombined into a contiguous data series every month and every year; this will represent an uninterrupted record of the actual (i.e., not statistically processed) temporal evolution of rain fade at 20 and 30 GHz at the location of the NGS. The second purpose of the data in such a format is to enable a statistical analysis of prevailing propagation parameters such as cumulative distributions of attenuation on a monthly and yearly basis as well as fade duration probabilities below given fade thresholds, also on a monthly and yearly basis. In addition, various subsidiary statistics such as attenuation rate probabilities are derived. The purged raw rain fade data as well as the results of the analyzed data will be made available for use by parties in the private sector upon their request. The process which will be followed in this dissemination is outlined in this paper.

Solar-geophysical activity reports for STIP (study of travelling interplanetary phenomena) Interval 15, 12-21 February 1984 ground-level event and STIP Interval 16, 20 April-4 May 1984 Forbush decrease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coffey, H.E.; Allen, J.H.

1987-07-01

Contents include: solar-geophysical activity reports for STIP Interval XV 12-21 February 1984 ground-level event and STIP interval XVI 20 April-4 May 1984 Forbush decrease; overview of solar-terrestrial physics phenomena for STIP interval XV (12-21 February 1984) and STIP interval XVI (20 April-4 May 1984) (solar optical reports, solar radio events, spacecraft observations, cosmic ray observations, ionosphere, geomagnetism).

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Clinical benefits of remote versus transtelephonic monitoring of implanted pacemakers.

PubMed

Crossley, George H; Chen, Jane; Choucair, Wassim; Cohen, Todd J; Gohn, Douglas C; Johnson, W Ben; Kennedy, Eleanor E; Mongeon, Luc R; Serwer, Gerald A; Qiao, Hongyan; Wilkoff, Bruce L

2009-11-24

The purpose of this study was to evaluate remote pacemaker interrogation for the earlier diagnosis of clinically actionable events compared with traditional transtelephonic monitoring and routine in-person evaluation. Pacemaker patient follow-up procedures have evolved from evaluating devices with little programmability and diagnostic information solely in person to transtelephonic rhythm strip recordings that allow monitoring of basic device function. More recently developed remote monitoring technology leverages expanded device capabilities, augmenting traditional transtelephonic monitoring to evaluate patients via full device interrogation. The time to first diagnosis of a clinically actionable event was compared in patients who were followed by remote interrogation (Remote) and those who were followed per standard of care with office visits augmented by transtelephonic monitoring (Control). Patients were randomized 2:1. Remote arm patients transmitted pacemaker information at 3-month intervals. Control arm patients with a single-chamber pacemaker transmitted at 2-month intervals. Control arm patients with dual-chamber devices transmitted at 2-month intervals with an office visit at 6 months. All patients were seen in office at 12 months. The mean time to first diagnosis of clinically actionable events was earlier in the Remote arm (5.7 months) than in the Control arm (7.7 months). Three (2%) of the 190 events in the Control arm and 446 (66%) of 676 events in the Remote arm were identified remotely. The strategic use of remote pacemaker interrogation follow-up detects actionable events that are potentially important more quickly and more frequently than transtelephonic rhythm strip recordings. The use of transtelephonic rhythm strips for pacemaker follow-up is of little value except for battery status determinations. (PREFER [Pacemaker Remote Follow-up Evaluation and Review]; NCT00294645).

49 CFR 563.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... vehicle's dynamic time-series data during the time period just prior to a crash event (e.g., vehicle speed... updated at regular time intervals. Delta-V, lateral means the cumulative change in velocity, as recorded by the EDR of the vehicle, along the lateral axis, starting from crash time zero and ending at 0.25...

Paleoseismology under sea: First evidence for irregular seismic cycles during Holocene off Algeria from turbidites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratzov, Gueorgui; Cattaneo, Antonio; Babonneau, Nathalie; Déverchere, Jacques; Yelles, Karim; Bracene, Rabah

2013-04-01

According to simple models, stress build-up along a given fault is proportional to the time elapsed since the previous earthquake. Although the resulting « seismic gap » hypothesis suits well for moderate magnitude earthquake (Mw 4-5), large events (Mw>6) are hardly predictable and show great variation in recurrence intervals. Thus, models based on stress transfer and interactions between faults suggest that an earthquake may haste or delay the occurrence of next earthquake on adjacent fault by increasing or lowering the level of static stress. Here, we show that meaningful information of large earthquakes recurrence intervals over several seismic cycles may be obtained using turbidite record offshore the Algerian margin (Mediterranean Sea), an area prone to relatively large (M~7) earthquakes in historical times. Indeed, as evidenced on the Cascadia subduction zone, synchroneous turbidites over a large area and originated from independent sources, are most likely triggered by an earthquake. To test the method on this slowly convergent margin, we analysed turbidites in 3 sediment cores collected off the area shaken by the 1980 Ms 7.3 El Asnam and 1954 M6.7 Orléansville earthquakes. We used X-ray radioscopy, XRF major elements counter, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution to accurately discriminate turbidites (~instantaneous deposit) from hemipelagites (continuous background sedimentation). We dated turbidites by calculating hemipelagic sedimentation rates obtained with AMS radiocarbon ages, and applied the rates between turbidites. Finally, the age of events was compared to the only paleoseismic investigation available onland. We found that 10 to 25 turbidites deposited as single or multiple pulses over the last ~8ka. Once correlated from site to site, they support 14 seismic events. Most events are correlated with the paleoseismic record of the El Asnam fault, but uncorrelated events support that other faults were active. Only the first of the two major events of 1954 and 1980 triggered a turbidity current, implying that the sediment buffer on the continental shelf could not be reloaded in 26 years thus giving information on the minimum time resolution of our method. The new paleoseismic catalog shows a recurrence interval of 300-700 years for most events, but also a great interval of >1200 years without any major earthquake. This result suggest that the level of static stress may have drastically dropped as a result of three main events occurring within the 800 years prior the quiescence period. The quiescent period also supports a stress transfer and interaction between neighbouring faults.

On a Solar Origin for the Cosmogenic Nuclide Event of 775 A.D.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliver, E. W.; Tylka, A. J.; Dietrich, W. F.; Ling, A. G.

2014-01-01

We explore requirements for a solar particle event (SPE) and flare capable of producing the cosmogenic nuclide event of 775 A.D., and review solar circumstances at that time. A solar source for 775 would require a greater than 1 GV spectrum approximately 45 times stronger than that of the intense high-energy SPE of 1956 February 23. This implies a greater than 30 MeV proton fluence (F(sub 30)) of approximately 8 × 10(exp 10) proton cm(exp -2), approximately 10 times larger than that of the strongest 3 month interval of SPE activity in the modern era. This inferred F(sub 30) value for the 775 SPE is inconsistent with the occurrence probability distribution for greater than 30 MeV solar proton events. The best guess value for the soft X-ray classification (total energy) of an associated flare is approximately X230 (approximately 9 × 10(exp 33) erg). For comparison, the flares on 2003 November 4 and 1859 September 1 had observed/inferred values of approximately X35 (approximately 10(exp 33) erg) and approximately X45 (approximately 2 × 10(exp 33) erg), respectively. The estimated size of the source active region for a approximately 10(exp 34) erg flare is approximately 2.5 times that of the largest region yet recorded. The 775 event occurred during a period of relatively low solar activity, with a peak smoothed amplitude about half that of the second half of the 20th century. The approximately 1945-1995 interval, the most active of the last approximately 2000 yr, failed to witness a SPE comparable to that required for the proposed solar event in 775. These considerations challenge a recent suggestion that the 775 event is likely of solar origin.

Emotion processing in the visual brain: a MEG analysis.

PubMed

Peyk, Peter; Schupp, Harald T; Elbert, Thomas; Junghöfer, Markus

2008-06-01

Recent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and event-related brain potential (ERP) studies provide empirical support for the notion that emotional cues guide selective attention. Extending this line of research, whole head magneto-encephalogram (MEG) was measured while participants viewed in separate experimental blocks a continuous stream of either pleasant and neutral or unpleasant and neutral pictures, presented for 330 ms each. Event-related magnetic fields (ERF) were analyzed after intersubject sensor coregistration, complemented by minimum norm estimates (MNE) to explore neural generator sources. Both streams of analysis converge by demonstrating the selective emotion processing in an early (120-170 ms) and a late time interval (220-310 ms). ERF analysis revealed that the polarity of the emotion difference fields was reversed across early and late intervals suggesting distinct patterns of activation in the visual processing stream. Source analysis revealed the amplified processing of emotional pictures in visual processing areas with more pronounced occipito-parieto-temporal activation in the early time interval, and a stronger engagement of more anterior, temporal, regions in the later interval. Confirming previous ERP studies showing facilitated emotion processing, the present data suggest that MEG provides a complementary look at the spread of activation in the visual processing stream.

The Attentional Demand of Automobile Driving Revisited: Occlusion Distance as a Function of Task-Relevant Event Density in Realistic Driving Scenarios.

PubMed

Kujala, Tuomo; Mäkelä, Jakke; Kotilainen, Ilkka; Tokkonen, Timo

2016-02-01

We studied the utility of occlusion distance as a function of task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. The visual occlusion technique is an established method for assessing visual demands of driving. However, occlusion time is not a highly informative measure of environmental task-relevant event density in self-paced driving scenarios because it partials out the effects of changes in driving speed. Self-determined occlusion times and distances of 97 drivers with varying backgrounds were analyzed in driving scenarios simulating real Finnish suburban and highway traffic environments with self-determined vehicle speed. Occlusion distances varied systematically with the expected environmental demands of the manipulated driving scenarios whereas the distributions of occlusion times remained more static across the scenarios. Systematic individual differences in the preferred occlusion distances were observed. More experienced drivers achieved better lane-keeping accuracy than inexperienced drivers with similar occlusion distances; however, driving experience was unexpectedly not a major factor for the preferred occlusion distances. Occlusion distance seems to be an informative measure for assessing task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. Occlusion time measures the visual demand of driving as the task-relevant event rate in time intervals, whereas occlusion distance measures the experienced task-relevant event density in distance intervals. The findings can be utilized in context-aware distraction mitigation systems, human-automated vehicle interaction, road speed prediction and design, as well as in the testing of visual in-vehicle tasks for inappropriate in-vehicle glancing behaviors in any dynamic traffic scenario for which appropriate individual occlusion distances can be defined. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

SQL Triggers Reacting on Time Events: An Extension Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrend, Andreas; Dorau, Christian; Manthey, Rainer

Being able to activate triggers at timepoints reached or after time intervals elapsed has been acknowledged by many authors as a valuable functionality of a DBMS. Recently, the interest in time-based triggers has been renewed in the context of data stream monitoring. However, up till now SQL triggers react to data changes only, even though research proposals and prototypes have been supporting several other event types, in particular time-based ones, since long. We therefore propose a seamless extension of the SQL trigger concept by time-based triggers, focussing on semantic issues arising from such an extension.

Cool episode and platform demise in the Early Aptian: New insights on the links between climate and carbonate production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonin, Aurélie; Pucéat, Emmanuelle; Vennin, Emmanuelle; Mattioli, Emanuela; Aurell, Marcos; Joachimski, Michael; Barbarin, Nicolas; Laffont, Rémi

2016-01-01

The Early Aptian encountered several crises in neritic and pelagic carbonate production, major perturbations in the carbon cycle, and an oceanic anoxic event (OAE1a). Yet the causal links between these perturbations and climate changes remain poorly understood, partly because temperature records spanning the Early Aptian interval are still scant. We present new δ18O data from well-preserved bivalves from a carbonate platform of the Galve subbasin (Spain) that document a major cooling event postdating most of OAE1a. Our data show that cooling postdates the global platform demise and cannot have triggered this event that occurred during the warmest interval. The warmest temperatures coincide with the time equivalent of OAE1a and with platform biotic assemblages dominated by microbialites at Aliaga as well as on other Tethyan platforms. Coral-dominated assemblages then replace microbialites during the subsequent cooling. Nannoconids are absent during most of the time equivalent of the OAE1a, probably related to the well-known crisis affecting this group. Yet they present a transient recovery in the upper part of this interval with an increase in both size and abundance during the cool interval portion that postdates OAE1a. An evolution toward cooler and drier climatic conditions may have induced the regional change from microbial to coral assemblages as well as nannoconids size and abundance increase by limiting continent-derived input of nutrients.

Children's Memory Reports over Time: Getting Both Better and Worse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Carole

2011-01-01

Injured children (N=145 between 2 and 13 years of age) were recruited from a hospital emergency room and were interviewed about the injury event soon afterward and then twice more at yearly intervals. Their transcripts were coded three ways: completeness of overall structural components of a prototypical injury event (e.g., who, when, where),…

Tracing the incorporation of carbon into benthic foraminiferal calcite following the Deepwater Horizon event.

PubMed

Schwing, Patrick T; Chanton, Jeffrey P; Romero, Isabel C; Hollander, David J; Goddard, Ethan A; Brooks, Gregg R; Larson, Rebekka A

2018-06-01

Following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) event in 2010, hydrocarbons were deposited on the continental slope in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through marine oil snow sedimentation and flocculent accumulation (MOSSFA). The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that benthic foraminiferal δ 13 C would record this depositional event. From December 2010 to August 2014, a time-series of sediment cores was collected at two impacted sites and one control site in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Short-lived radioisotopes ( 210 Pb and 234 Th) were employed to establish the pre-DWH, DWH, and post-DWH intervals. Benthic foraminifera (Cibicidoides spp. and Uvigerina spp.) were isolated from these intervals for δ 13 C measurement. A modest (0.2-0.4‰), but persistent δ 13 C depletion in the DWH intervals of impacted sites was observed over a two-year period. This difference was significantly beyond the pre-DWH (background) variability and demonstrated that benthic foraminiferal calcite recorded the depositional event. The longevity of the depletion in the δ 13 C record suggested that benthic foraminifera may have recorded the change in organic matter caused by MOSSFA from 2010 to 2012. These findings have implications for assessing the subsurface spatial distribution of the DWH MOSSFA event. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using low-frequency earthquake families on the San Andreas fault as deep creepmeters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, A.; Beeler, N. M.; Bletery, Q.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, D. R.

2017-12-01

The San Andreas fault hosts tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) similar to those in subduction zone environments. These LFEs are grouped into families based on waveform similarity and locate between 16 and 29 km depth along a 150-km-long section of the fault centered on Parkfield, CA. ­Within individual LFE families event occurrence is not steady. In some families, bursts of a few events recur on timescales of days while in other families there are nearly quiescent periods that often last for months followed by episodes where hundreds of events occur over the course of a few days. These two different styles of LFE occurrence are called continuous and episodic respectively. LFEs are often assumed to reflect persistent regions that periodically fail during the aseismic shear of the surrounding fault allowing them to be used as creepmeters. We test this idea by formalizing the definition of a creepmeter (the LFE occurrence rate is proportional to the local fault slip rate), determining whether this definition is consistent with the observations, and over what timescale. We use the recurrence intervals of LFEs within individual families to create a catalog of LFE bursts. For the episodic families, we consider both longer duration (multiday) inferred creep episodes (dubbed long-timescale episodic) as well as the frequent short-term bursts of events that occur many times during inferred creep episodes (dubbed short-timescale episodic). We then use the recurrence intervals of LFE bursts to estimate the timing, duration, recurrence interval, slip, and slip rate associated with inferred slow slip events. We find that continuous families and the short-timescale episodic families appear to be inconsistent with our definition of a creepmeter (defined on the recurrence interval timescale) because their estimated durations are not physically meaningful. A straight-forward interpretation of the frequent short-term bursts of the continuous and short-timescale episodic families is that they do not represent individual creep events but rather are persistent asperities that are driven to failure by quasi-continuous creep on the surrounding fault. In contrast, episodic families likely define sections of the fault where slip is distinctly episodic in well-defined SSEs that slip at 15 times the long-term rate.

Corotation of an intermittent solar wind source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Croft, T. A.

1972-01-01

The measured electron content of the solar wind in mid-1970 exhibited a region of relatively high electron density that reappeared at intervals of about 27.8 days. It is shown that the repeating event cannot be reconciled with the concept of a long-enduring steady flow, even though the recurrence period is close to the rotation period of the sun. This evidence of transients is inferred from the short duration of each appearance of the interval of higher density; each should last for roughly one corotation interval if it is caused by a steady stream. The radio path was approximately 0.8 AU long, and the corotation interval exceeded 3 days. Other aspects of the content data patterns support the view that such transient events are common in the solar wind. The mid-1970 repeating event is an unusually good example of the intermittent character of flow regions in the solar wind that fluctuate on a time scale of days but endure as identifiable regions for many months. A sputtering corotating source of thin solar plasma streams could explain this series of events; it could also be explained in terms of a stream that is steady in density and speed but undulating north-south so that it passes into and out of the 0.8 AU radio path in a matter of a day or less.

Particle field diagnose using angular multiplexing volume holography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yu; Li, Zeren; Luo, Zhenxiong; Jun, Li; Zhong, Jie; Ye, Yan; Li, Shengfu; Zhu, Jianhua

2017-08-01

The problem of particle field diagnosing using holography can be met in many areas. But single frame hologram can only catch one moment of the fast event, which can't reveal the change process of an unrepeatable fast event. For events in different time-scale, different solution should be used. We did this work to record a laser induced particle field in the time-scale of tens of micron seconds. A laser of pulse sequence mode is applied to provide 10 pulses, the energy and time interval of whom is 150mJ and 1μs. Four pockels cells are employed to pick up the last four pulses for holographic recording, the other pulses are controlled to pre-expose the photopolymer based recording material, which can enhance photosensitivity of the photopolymer during the moment of holographic recording. The angular multiplexing technique and volume holography is accepted to avoid shifting the photopolymer between each shot. Another Q-switch YAG laser (pulse energy 100mJ, pulse width 10ns) is applied to produce the fast event. As a result, we successfully caught the motion process of the laser induced particle field. The time interval of each frame is 1μs, the angular range of the four references is 14°, and the diffraction efficiency of each hologram is less than 2%. After a basic analysis, this optical system could catch more holograms through a compact design.

The Superstatistical Nature and Interoccurrence Time of Atmospheric Mercury Concentration Fluctuations

EPA Science Inventory

The probability density function (PDF) of the time intervals between subsequent extreme events in atmospheric Hg0 concentration data series from different latitudes has been investigated. The Hg0 dynamic possesses a long-term memory autocorrelation function. Above a fixed thresh...

Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; van der Wiel, Karin; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Uhe, Peter; Cullen, Heidi

2018-02-01

On 4-6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%-97.5% confidence interval of 5%-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.

Relation between century-scale Holocene arid intervals in tropical and temperate zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, H. F.; Gasse, F.; Benkaddour, A.; El Hamouti, N.; van der Kaars, S.; Perkins, W. T.; Pearce, N. J.; Roberts, C. N.

1995-01-01

CLIMATE records from lake sediments in tropical Africa, Central America and west Asia show several century-scale arid intervals during the Holocene1-10. These may have been caused by temporary weakening of the monsoonal circulation associated with reduced northward heat transport by the oceans7 or by feedback processes stimulated by changes in tropical land-surface conditions10. Here we use a lake-sediment record from the montane Mediterranean zone of Morocco to address the question of whether these events were also felt in temperate continental regions. We find evidence of arid intervals of similar duration, periodicity and possibly timing to those in the tropics. But our pollen data show that the forest vegetation was not substantially affected by these events, indicating that precipitation remained adequate during the summer growing season. Thus, the depletion of the groundwater aquifer that imprinted the dry events in the lake record must have resulted from reduced winter precipitation. We suggest that the occurrence of arid events during the summer in the tropics but during the winter at temperate latitudes can be rationalized if they are both associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

New diagnosis of cancer and the risk of subsequent cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Navi, Babak B; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Zhao, Hong; Judd, Suzanne E; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Iadecola, Costantino; DeAngelis, Lisa M; Kamel, Hooman; Okin, Peter M; Gilchrist, Susan; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Cushman, Mary; Muntner, Paul

2018-06-05

We aimed to evaluate the association between cancer and cerebrovascular disease in a prospective cohort study with adjudicated cerebrovascular diagnoses. We analyzed participants from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who were 45 years and older and had Medicare coverage for 365 days before their baseline study visit. Participants with a history of cancer or cerebrovascular events were excluded. The time-dependent exposure was a new diagnosis of malignant cancer identified through Medicare claims algorithms. Participants were prospectively followed from their baseline study visit (2003-2007) through 2014 for the outcome of a neurologist-adjudicated cerebrovascular event defined as a composite of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or TIA. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between a new cancer diagnosis and subsequent cerebrovascular events. Follow-up time was modeled in discrete time periods to fulfill the proportional hazard assumption. Among 6,602 REGARDS participants who met eligibility criteria, 1,149 were diagnosed with cancer during follow-up. Compared to no cancer, a new cancer diagnosis was associated with subsequent cerebrovascular events in the first 30 days after diagnosis (hazard ratio 6.1, 95% confidence interval 2.7-13.7). This association persisted after adjustment for demographics, region of residence, and vascular risk factors (hazard ratio 6.6, 95% confidence interval 2.7-16.0). There was no association between cancer diagnosis and incident cerebrovascular events beyond 30 days. Cancers considered high risk for venous thromboembolism demonstrated the strongest associations with cerebrovascular event risk. A new diagnosis of cancer is associated with a substantially increased short-term risk of cerebrovascular events. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

Anatomy of Some Non-Heinrich Events During The Last Glacial Maximum on Laurentian Fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, I. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

2013-12-01

High-resolution diatom assemblage analyses coupled with oxygen and carbon isotopic records from a new 28 m piston core on Laurentian Fan reveal significant sedimentological and marine productivity changes related to variability of the nearby Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Between 21.0 and 19.7 ka and between 18.8 and 18.6 ka, olive-grey clays intervals interrupt the usual glacial red-clays sedimentation. The timing of these two intervals corresponds to reported occurrence of layers low in detrital carbonate (LDC, considered as non-Heinrich events) that occurred between Heinrich Event 1 and 2. Diatoms are only abundant during those LDC - olive-grey clay intervals and suggest ice retreat (allowing light penetration necessary to diatoms). The species succession reveals also different environmental conditions. The 21.0 to 19.7 ka interval is divisible to two main periods: the first was characterized by environmental conditions dominated by ice, while the second period (starting at 20.2 ka) was warmer than the first. During the shorter 18.8 to 18.6 ka interval, conditions were even warmer than during the 20.2 to 19.7 ka sub-interval. Finally, the comparison of the interpreted oceanographic conditions with changes in Ice Rafted Debris and other records from the North Atlantic will bring a new insight into those episodes that precede the transition to deglaciation beginning ~18.2 ka on Laurentian Fan (based on δ18-O in N. pachyderma (s.)).

Optimal Futility Interim Design: A Predictive Probability of Success Approach with Time-to-Event Endpoint.

PubMed

Tang, Zhongwen

2015-01-01

An analytical way to compute predictive probability of success (PPOS) together with credible interval at interim analysis (IA) is developed for big clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. The method takes account of the fixed data up to IA, the amount of uncertainty in future data, and uncertainty about parameters. Predictive power is a special type of PPOS. The result is confirmed by simulation. An optimal design is proposed by finding optimal combination of analysis time and futility cutoff based on some PPOS criteria.

Pulses of middle Eocene to earliest Oligocene climatic deterioration in southern California and the Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederiksen, N.O.

1991-01-01

A general deterioration of terrestrial climate took place during middle Eocene to earliest Oligocene time in southern California and in the Gulf Coast. Pollen data, calibrated by calcareous nannofossil ages, indicate four events of rapid floral and/or vegetational change among angiosperms during this time interval. The events can be correlated between the two regions even though these regions lay within different floristic provinces, and each event of angiosperm change is interpreted to indicate a pulse of rapid climatic shift. The most distinct of these events is the Middle Eocene Diversity Decline, which resulted from a peak in last appearances (extinctions, emigrations) centered in the early Bartonian. -from Author

A Hot-Deck Multiple Imputation Procedure for Gaps in Longitudinal Recurrent Event Histories

PubMed Central

Wang, Chia-Ning; Little, Roderick; Nan, Bin; Harlow, Siobán D.

2012-01-01

Summary We propose a regression-based hot deck multiple imputation method for gaps of missing data in longitudinal studies, where subjects experience a recurrent event process and a terminal event. Examples are repeated asthma episodes and death, or menstrual periods and the menopause, as in our motivating application. Research interest concerns the onset time of a marker event, defined by the recurrent-event process, or the duration from this marker event to the final event. Gaps in the recorded event history make it difficult to determine the onset time of the marker event, and hence, the duration from onset to the final event. Simple approaches such as jumping gap times or dropping cases with gaps have obvious limitations. We propose a procedure for imputing information in the gaps by substituting information in the gap from a matched individual with a completely recorded history in the corresponding interval. Predictive Mean Matching is used to incorporate information on longitudinal characteristics of the repeated process and the final event time. Multiple imputation is used to propagate imputation uncertainty. The procedure is applied to an important data set for assessing the timing and duration of the menopausal transition. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by a simulation study. PMID:21361886

Relativity theory and time perception: single or multiple clocks?

PubMed

Buhusi, Catalin V; Meck, Warren H

2009-07-22

Current theories of interval timing assume that humans and other animals time as if using a single, absolute stopwatch that can be stopped or reset on command. Here we evaluate the alternative view that psychological time is represented by multiple clocks, and that these clocks create separate temporal contexts by which duration is judged in a relative manner. Two predictions of the multiple-clock hypothesis were tested. First, that the multiple clocks can be manipulated (stopped and/or reset) independently. Second, that an event of a given physical duration would be perceived as having different durations in different temporal contexts, i.e., would be judged differently by each clock. Rats were trained to time three durations (e.g., 10, 30, and 90 s). When timing was interrupted by an unexpected gap in the signal, rats reset the clock used to time the "short" duration, stopped the "medium" duration clock, and continued to run the "long" duration clock. When the duration of the gap was manipulated, the rats reset these clocks in a hierarchical order, first the "short", then the "medium", and finally the "long" clock. Quantitative modeling assuming re-allocation of cognitive resources in proportion to the relative duration of the gap to the multiple, simultaneously timed event durations was used to account for the results. These results indicate that the three event durations were effectively timed by separate clocks operated independently, and that the same gap duration was judged relative to these three temporal contexts. Results suggest that the brain processes the duration of an event in a manner similar to Einstein's special relativity theory: A given time interval is registered differently by independent clocks dependent upon the context.

Reversing the Course of Forgetting

PubMed Central

White, K. Geoffrey; Brown, Glenn S

2011-01-01

Forgetting functions were generated for pigeons in a delayed matching-to-sample task, in which accuracy decreased with increasing retention-interval duration. In baseline training with dark retention intervals, accuracy was high overall. Illumination of the experimental chamber by a houselight during the retention interval impaired performance accuracy by increasing the rate of forgetting. In novel conditions, the houselight was lit at the beginning of a retention interval and then turned off partway through the retention interval. Accuracy was low at the beginning of the retention interval and then increased later in the interval. Thus the course of forgetting was reversed. Such a dissociation of forgetting from the passage of time is consistent with an interference account in which attention or stimulus control switches between the remembering task and extraneous events. PMID:21909163

Time of flight system on a chip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paschalidis, Nicholas P. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

A CMOS time-of-flight TOF system-on-a-chip SoC for precise time interval measurement with low power consumption and high counting rate has been developed. The analog and digital TOF chip may include two Constant Fraction Discriminators CFDs and a Time-to-Digital Converter TDC. The CFDs can interface to start and stop anodes through two preamplifiers and perform signal processing for time walk compensation (110). The TDC digitizes the time difference with reference to an off-chip precise external clock (114). One TOF output is an 11-bit digital word and a valid event trigger output indicating a valid event on the 11-bit output bus (116).

Degassing and microlite crystallization during pre-climactic events of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammer, J.E.; Cashman, K.V.; Hoblitt, R.P.; Newman, S.

1999-01-01

Dacite tephras produced by the 1991 pre-climactic eruptive sequence at Mt. Pinatubo display extreme heterogeneity in vesicularity, ranging in clast density from 700 to 2580 kg m-3. Observations of the 13 surge-producing blasts that preceded the climactic plinian event include radar-defined estimates of column heights and seismically defined eruptive and intra-eruptive durations. A comparison of the characteristics of erupted material, including microlite textures, chemical compositions, and H2O contents, with eruptive parameters suggests that devolatilization-induced crystallization of the magma occurred to a varying extent prior to at least nine of the explosive events. Although volatile loss progressed to the same approximate level in all of the clasts analyzed (weight percent H2O=1.26-1.73), microlite crystallization was extremely variable (0-22%). We infer that syn-eruptive volatile exsolution from magma in the conduit and intra-eruptive separation of the gas phase was facilitated by the development of permeability within magma residing in the conduit. Correlation of maximum microlite crystallinity with repose interval duration (28-262 min) suggests that crystallization occurred primarily intra-eruptively, in response to the reduction in dissolved H2O content that occurred during the preceding event. Detailed textural characterization, including determination of three-dimensional shapes and crystal size distributions (CSD), was conducted on a subset of clasts in order to determine rates of crystal nucleation and growth using repose interval as the time available for crystallization. Shape and size analysis suggests that crystallization proceeded in response to lessening degrees of feldspar supersaturation as repose interval durations increased. We thus propose that during repose intervals, a plug of highly viscous magma formed due to the collapse of vesicular magma that had exsolved volatiles during the previous explosive event. If plug thickness grew proportionally to the square root of time, and if magma pressurization increased during the eruptive sequence, the frequency of eruptive pulses may have been modulated by degassing of magma within the conduit. Dense clasts in surge deposits probably represent plug material entrained by each subsequent explosive event.

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.

An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features. PMID:24599259

Interplanetary propagation of flare-associated energetic particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masung, L. L.; Earl, J. A.

1978-01-01

A propagation model which combines a Gaussian profile for particle release from the sun, with interplanetary particle densities predicted by focused diffusion, was proposed to explain the propagation history of flare associated energetic particles. This model, which depends on only two parameters, successfully describes the time-intensity profiles of 30 proton and electron events originating from the western hemisphere of the sun. Generally, particles are released from the sun over a finite interval. In almost all events, particle release begins at the time of flare acceleration.

Search for long distance correlations between extensive air showers detected by the EEE network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbrescia, M.; Baldini, L.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Batignani, G.; Battaglieri, M.; Boi, S.; Bossini, E.; Carnesecchi, F.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccetti, F.; Coccia, E.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Fabbri, F. L.; Frolov, V.; Galeotti, P.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Grazzi, S.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Mandaglio, G.; Maragoto Rodriguez, O.; Maron, G.; Mazziotta, M. N.; Miozzi, S.; Nania, R.; Noferini, F.; Nozzoli, F.; Palmonari, F.; Panareo, M.; Panetta, M. P.; Paoletti, R.; Park, W.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Pisano, S.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Ripoli, C.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Schioppa, M.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Squarcia, S.; Taiuti, M.; Terreni, G.; Trifirò, A.; Trimarchi, M.; Vistoli, M. C.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Zheng, L.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

2018-02-01

A search for long distance correlations between individual Extensive Air Showers (EAS) detected by pairs of MRPC telescopes of the Extreme Energy Events (EEE) network was carried out. The search for an anomaly in these events is the purpose of our work. A dataset obtained by all the possible 45 pairs between 10 EEE cluster sites (hosting at least two telescopes), located at relative distances between 86 and 1200km, was analyzed, corresponding to an overall period of 3968 days time exposure. To estimate the possible event excess with respect to the spurious rate, the number of coincidence events was extracted as a function of the time difference between the arrival of the showers in the two sites, from ± 10 s to the smallest time interval where events are still observed. The analysis was done taking into account both the time and orientation correlation between the showers detected by the telescope pairs. A few candidate events with unusually small time difference and angular distance were observed, with a p-value sensibly smaller than a confidence level of 0.05.

Complications following incident stroke resulting in readmissions: an analysis of data from three Scottish health surveys.

PubMed

Ponomarev, Dmitry; Miller, Claire; Govan, Lindsay; Haig, Caroline; Wu, Olivia; Langhorne, Peter

2015-08-01

Stroke is widely recognized as the major contributor to morbidity and mortality in the United Kingdom. We analyzed the data obtained from the three consecutive Scottish Health Surveys and the Scottish Morbidity records, with the aim of identifying risk factors for, and timing of, common poststroke complications. There were 19434 individuals sampled during three Scottish Health Surveys in 1995, 1998, and 2001. For these individuals their morbidity and mortality outcomes were obtained in 2007. Incident stroke prevalence, risk factors for a range of poststroke complications, and average times until such complications in the sample were established. Of the total of 168 incident stroke admissions (0·86% of the survey), 16·1% people died during incident stroke hospitalization. Of the remaining 141 stroke survivors, 75·2% were rehospitalized at least once. The most frequent reason for readmission after stroke was a cardiovascular complication (28·6%), median time until event 1412 days, followed by infection (17·3%, median 1591 days). The risk of cardiovascular readmission was higher in those with 'poor' self-assessed health (odds ratio 7·70; 95% confidence interval 1·64-43·27), smokers (odds ratio 4·24; 95% confidence interval 1·11-21·59), and doubled with every five years increase in age (odds ratio 1·97; 95% confidence interval 1·46-2·65). 'Poor' self-assessed health increased chance of readmission for infection (odds ratio 14·11; 95% confidence interval 2·27-276·56). Cardiovascular events and infections are the most frequent poststroke complications resulting in readmissions. The time period until event provides a possibility to focus monitoring on those people at risk of readmission and introduce preventative measures, thereby reducing readmission-associated costs. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

A statistical study of CME-Preflare associated events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawad, Ramy; Youssef, M.

2018-07-01

We investigated the relationship of associated CME-Preflare during the solar period 1996-2010. We found 292 CME-Preflare associated events (∼2%). Those associated events have 0-1 h interval time, popular events occur within half an hour before flare starting time. Post-flares-CME associated events are wider than CME-Preflare associated events. CME-Preflare associated events are ejected from the northern hemisphere during the solar cycle 23rd, while the non-associated CMEs are ejected from the southern hemisphere. Polar CME-Preflare associated events are more energetic than the equatorial events. This means that post-flare-CME associated events are more decelerated than CME-Preflare associated events, CME-Flare associated simultaneously events and other CMEs. The CME-Preflare associated events are slower than the post-flare-CME associated events, and slightly faster than non-associated CME events. Post-flare-CME associated events are in average more massive than Preflare CME associated events and all other CMEs ejected from the Sun. CME-Preflare associated has a mean average speed which is equivalent to the mean average solar wind speed approximately.

Non-renewal statistics for electron transport in a molecular junction with electron-vibration interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosov, Daniel S.

2017-09-01

Quantum transport of electrons through a molecule is a series of individual electron tunneling events separated by stochastic waiting time intervals. We study the emergence of temporal correlations between successive waiting times for the electron transport in a vibrating molecular junction. Using the master equation approach, we compute the joint probability distribution for waiting times of two successive tunneling events. We show that the probability distribution is completely reset after each tunneling event if molecular vibrations are thermally equilibrated. If we treat vibrational dynamics exactly without imposing the equilibration constraint, the statistics of electron tunneling events become non-renewal. Non-renewal statistics between two waiting times τ1 and τ2 means that the density matrix of the molecule is not fully renewed after time τ1 and the probability of observing waiting time τ2 for the second electron transfer depends on the previous electron waiting time τ1. The strong electron-vibration coupling is required for the emergence of the non-renewal statistics. We show that in the Franck-Condon blockade regime, extremely rare tunneling events become positively correlated.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Mining Recent Temporal Patterns for Event Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data

PubMed Central

Batal, Iyad; Fradkin, Dmitriy; Harrison, James; Moerchen, Fabian; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-01-01

Improving the performance of classifiers using pattern mining techniques has been an active topic of data mining research. In this work we introduce the recent temporal pattern mining framework for finding predictive patterns for monitoring and event detection problems in complex multivariate time series data. This framework first converts time series into time-interval sequences of temporal abstractions. It then constructs more complex temporal patterns backwards in time using temporal operators. We apply our framework to health care data of 13,558 diabetic patients and show its benefits by efficiently finding useful patterns for detecting and diagnosing adverse medical conditions that are associated with diabetes. PMID:25937993

Modelling recurrent events: comparison of statistical models with continuous and discontinuous risk intervals on recurrent malaria episodes data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Recurrent events data analysis is common in biomedicine. Literature review indicates that most statistical models used for such data are often based on time to the first event or consider events within a subject as independent. Even when taking into account the non-independence of recurrent events within subjects, data analyses are mostly done with continuous risk interval models, which may not be appropriate for treatments with sustained effects (e.g., drug treatments of malaria patients). Furthermore, results can be biased in cases of a confounding factor implying different risk exposure, e.g. in malaria transmission: if subjects are located at zones showing different environmental factors implying different risk exposures. Methods This work aimed to compare four different approaches by analysing recurrent malaria episodes from a clinical trial assessing the effectiveness of three malaria treatments [artesunate + amodiaquine (AS + AQ), artesunate + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS + SP) or artemether-lumefantrine (AL)], with continuous and discontinuous risk intervals: Andersen-Gill counting process (AG-CP), Prentice-Williams-Peterson counting process (PWP-CP), a shared gamma frailty model, and Generalized Estimating Equations model (GEE) using Poisson distribution. Simulations were also made to analyse the impact of the addition of a confounding factor on malaria recurrent episodes. Results Using the discontinuous interval analysis, AG-CP and Shared gamma frailty models provided similar estimations of treatment effect on malaria recurrent episodes when adjusted on age category. The patients had significant decreased risk of recurrent malaria episodes when treated with AS + AQ or AS + SP arms compared to AL arm; Relative Risks were: 0.75 (95% CI (Confidence Interval): 0.62-0.89), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.88) respectively for AG-CP model and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.89), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.87) for the Shared gamma frailty model. With both discontinuous and continuous risk intervals analysis, GEE Poisson distribution models failed to detect the effect of AS + AQ arm compared to AL arm when adjusted for age category. The discontinuous risk interval analysis was found to be the more appropriate approach. Conclusion Repeated event in infectious diseases such as malaria can be analysed with appropriate existing models that account for the correlation between multiple events within subjects with common statistical software packages, after properly setting up the data structures. PMID:25073652

On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokely, Christopher L.; Benbrook, James R.; Horstman, Matt

2007-01-01

A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.

Retention of autobiographical memories: an Internet-based diary study.

PubMed

Kristo, Gert; Janssen, Steve M J; Murre, Jaap M J

2009-11-01

In this online study we examined the retention of recent personal events using an Internet-based diary technique. Each participant (N=878) recorded on a website one recent personal event and was contacted after a retention interval that ranged between 2 and 46 days. We investigated how well the participants could recall the content, time, and details of their recorded event. We found a classic retention function. Details of the events were forgotten more rapidly than the content and the time of the events. There were no differences between the forgetting rates of the "who", "what" and "where" elements of the content component. Reminiscing, social sharing, pleasantness, and frequency of occurrence aided recall, but surprisingly importance and emotionality did not. They were, however, strongly associated with reminiscing and social sharing.

Lightning electromagnetic radiation field spectra in the interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willett, J. C.; Bailey, J. C.; Leteinturier, C.; Krider, E. P.

1990-01-01

New Fourier transforms of wideband time-domain electric fields (E) produced by lightning (recorded at the Kennedy Space Center during the summers of 1985 and 1987) were recorded in such a way that several different events in each lightning flash could be captured. Average HF spectral amplitudes for first return strokes, stepped-leader steps, and 'characteristic pulses' are given for significantly more events, at closer ranges, and with better spectral resolution than in previous literature reports. The method of recording gives less bias toward the first large event in the flash and thus yields a large sample of a wide variety of lightning processes. As a result, reliable composite spectral amplitudes are obtained for a number of different processes in cloud-to-ground lightning over the frequency interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz.

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopoff, L.

1990-01-01

The problems in predicting earthquakes have been attacked by phenomenological methods from pre-historic times to the present. The associations of presumed precursors with large earthquakes often have been remarked upon. the difficulty in identifying whether such correlations are due to some chance coincidence or are real precursors is that usually one notes the associations only in the relatively short time intervals before the large events. Only rarely, if ever, is notice taken of whether the presumed precursor is to be found in the rather long intervals that follow large earthquakes, or in fact is absent in these post-earthquake intervals. If there are enough examples, the presumed correlation fails as a precursor in the former case, while in the latter case the precursor would be verified. Unfortunately, the observer is usually not concerned with the 'uniteresting' intervals that have no large earthquakes. 

Estimating the duration of geologic intervals from a small number of age determinations: A challenge common to petrology and paleobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glazner, Allen F.; Sadler, Peter M.

2016-12-01

The duration of a geologic interval, such as the time over which a given volume of magma accumulated to form a pluton, or the lifespan of a large igneous province, is commonly determined from a relatively small number of geochronologic determinations (e.g., 4-10) within that interval. Such sample sets can underestimate the true length of the interval by a significant amount. For example, the average interval determined from a sample of size n = 5, drawn from a uniform random distribution, will underestimate the true interval by 50%. Even for n = 10, the average sample only captures ˜80% of the interval. If the underlying distribution is known then a correction factor can be determined from theory or Monte Carlo analysis; for a uniform random distribution, this factor is n+1n-1. Systematic undersampling of interval lengths can have a large effect on calculated magma fluxes in plutonic systems. The problem is analogous to determining the duration of an extinct species from its fossil occurrences. Confidence interval statistics developed for species origination and extinction times are applicable to the onset and cessation of magmatic events.

Statistical Aspects of X-Class Halo and Non-Halo Events, 1996-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2016-01-01

Of the 166 X-class events that occurred during the interval 1996-2014, 80 had associations with halo events, 68 had no associations with halo events, and 18 occurred during LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph) data gaps. Both the duration and location of the X-class halo events proved to be statistically important parameters with respect to the geo-effectiveness of the events. Forty-four of the 80 X-class halo events occurred within 45 degrees of the Sun's central meridian and 47 of the 80 had duration greater than or equal to 30 minutes, whereas only 28 of the 68 X-class non-halo events occurred within 45 degrees of the Sun's central meridian (2 events have unknown location) and 22 of the 68 had duration greater than or equal to 30 minutes. Ignoring the 4 largest X-class flares greater than or equal to X4.0 during the LASCO data gaps, 17 of the remaining 20 were associated with halo events, and 14 of the 17 had at least one geo-magnetically disturbed day (Ap (i.e. NOAA's Ap* (ApStar)index: the major magnetic storms going back to 1932) greater than or equal to 25 nanotesias) within 1-5 days following the X-class halo event. Based on the hourly Dst (Disturbance storm time) index, the most geo-effective X-class halo event during the interval 1996-2014 was that of an X1.7 flare that occurred on 2001 March 29 at 0957, having an hourly Disturbance storm time minimum equal to minus 387 nanotesias. On average, the X-class halo events (80 events) were found to have a mean duration (42 minutes) slightly longer than the mean duration (29 minutes) of the X-class non-halo events (68 events) with the difference in the means being statistically important at the 1 percent level of significance.

Energetic electron injections and dipolarization events in Mercury's magnetotail: Substorm dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewey, R. M.; Slavin, J. A.; Raines, J. M.; Imber, S.; Baker, D. N.; Lawrence, D. J.

2017-12-01

Despite its small size, Mercury's terrestrial-like magnetosphere experiences brief, yet intense, substorm intervals characterized by features similar to at Earth: loading/unloading of the tail lobes with open magnetic flux, dipolarization of the magnetic field at the inner edge of the plasma sheet, and, the focus of this presentation, energetic electron injection. We use the Gamma-Ray Spectrometer's high-time resolution (10 ms) energetic electron measurements to determine the relationship between substorm activity and energetic electron injections coincident with dipolarization fronts in the magnetotail. These dipolarizations were detected on the basis of their rapid ( 2 s) increase in the northward component of the tail magnetic field (ΔBz 30 nT), which typically persists for 10 s. We estimate the typical flow channel to be 0.15 RM, planetary convection speed of 750 km/s, cross-tail potential drop of 7 kV, and flux transport of 0.08 MWb for each dipolarization event, suggesting multiple simultaneous and sequential dipolarizations are required to unload the >1 MWb of magnetic flux typically returned to the dayside magnetosphere during a substorm interval. Indeed, while we observe most dipolarization-injections to be isolated or in small chains of events (i.e., 1-3 events), intervals of sawtooth-like injections with >20 sequential events are also present. The typical separation between dipolarization-injection events is 10 s. Magnetotail dipolarization, in addition to being a powerful source of electron acceleration, also plays a significant role in the substorm process at Mercury.

Influence of northwest Pacific productivity on North Pacific Intermediate Water oxygen concentrations during the Bølling-Ållerød interval (14.7-12.9 ka)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crusius, John; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Kienast, Stephanie; Keigwin, Lloyd D.; Labeyrie, Laurent

2004-01-01

Elevated productivity in the northwest Pacific is suggested as a new possible control driving past intervals of low-O2 intermediate water along the western continental margin of North America. According to this mechanism, O2 consumption would occur near the site of formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), due to increased respiration of organic carbon in response to a high-productivity event. Evidence is provided for such a productivity increase during the Bølling-Ållerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka), a time when laminated sediments were deposited along the northern California margin. By this mechanism, low-O2 events in intermediate waters off the western North American margin could occur without significant changes in the rate of NPIW ventilation.

The Bay Area Earthquake Cycle:A Paleoseismic Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, D. P.; Seitz, G.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Dawson, T. E.; Hecker, S.; William, L.; Kelson, K.

2001-12-01

Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on Bay Area seismicity, dramatically reducing it in the 20th century. Whether the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) is still within, is just emerging from it, or is out of the 1906 stress shadow is an issue of strong debate with important implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically the SFBR has not experienced one complete earthquake cycle--the interval immediately following, then leading up to and repeating, a 1906-type (multi-segment rupture, M7.9) San Andreas event. The historical record of earthquake occurrence in the SFBR appears to be complete at about M5.5 back to 1850 (Bakun, 1999), which is less than half a cycle. For large events (qualitatively placed at M*7) Toppozada and Borchardt (1998) suggest the record is complete back to 1776, which may represent about half a cycle. During this period only the southern Hayward fault (1868) and the San Andreas fault (1838?, 1906) have produced their expected large events. New paleoseismic data now provide, for the first time, a more complete view of the most recent pre-1906 SFBR earthquake cycle. Focused paleoseismic efforts under the Bay Area Paleoearthquake Experiment (BAPEX) have developed a chronology of the most recent large earthquakes (MRE) on major SFBR faults. The San Andreas (SA), northern Hayward (NH), southern Hayward (SH), Rodgers Creek (RC), and northern Calaveras (NC) faults provide clear paleoseismic evidence for large events post-1600 AD. The San Gregorio (SG) may have also produced a large earthquake after this date. The timing of the MREs, in years AD, follows. The age ranges are 2-sigma radiocarbon intervals; the dates in parentheses are 1-sigma. MRE ages are: a) SA 1600-1670 (1630-1660), NH 1640-1776 (1635-1776); SH 1635-1776 (1685-1676); RC 1670-1776 (1730-1776); NC 1670-1830?; and San Gregorio 1270-1776 but possibly 1640-1776 (1685-1776). Based on present radiocarbon dating, the NH/SH/RC/NC/(SG?) sequence likely occurred subsequent to the penultimate San Andreas event. Although offset data, which reflect M, are limited, observations indicate that the penultimate SA event ruptured essentially the same fault length as 1906 (Schwartz et al, 1998). In addition, measured point-specific slip (RC, 1.8-2.3m; SG, 3.5-5m) and modeled average slip (SH, 1.9m) for the MREs indicate large magnitude earthquakes on the other regional faults. The major observation from the new paleoseismic data is that during a maximum interval of 176 years (1600 to 1776), significant seismic moment was released in the SFBR by large (M*6.7) surface-faulting earthquakes on the SA, RC, SH, NH, NC and possibly SG faults. This places an upper limit on the duration of San Andreas interaction effects (stress shadow) on the regional fault system. In fact, the interval between the penultimate San Andreas rupture and large earthquakes on other SFBR faults could have been considerably shorter. We are now 95 years out from the 1906 and the SFBR Working Group 99 probability time window extends to 2030, an interval of 124 years. The paleoearthquake data allow that within this amount of time following the penultimate San Andreas event one or more large earthquakes may have occurred on Bay Area faults. Longer paleoearthquake chronologies with more precise event dating in the SFBR and other locales provide the exciting potential for defining regional earthquake cycles and modeling long-term fault interactions.

Pathways to Lung Cancer Diagnosis: A Qualitative Study of Patients and General Practitioners about Diagnostic and Pretreatment Intervals.

PubMed

Rankin, Nicole M; York, Sarah; Stone, Emily; Barnes, David; McGregor, Deborah; Lai, Michelle; Shaw, Tim; Butow, Phyllis N

2017-05-01

Pathways to lung cancer diagnosis and treatment are complex. International evidence shows significant variations in pathways. Qualitative research investigating pathways to lung cancer diagnosis rarely considers both patient and general practitioner views simultaneously. To describe the lung cancer diagnostic pathway, focusing on the perspective of patients and general practitioners about diagnostic and pretreatment intervals. This qualitative study of patients with lung cancer and general practitioners in Australia used qualitative interviews or a focus group in which participants responded to a semistructured questionnaire designed to explore experiences of the diagnostic pathway. The Model of Pathways to Treatment (the Model) was used as a framework for analysis, with data organized into (1) events, (2) processes, and (3) contributing factors for variations in diagnostic and pretreatment intervals. Thirty participants (19 patients with lung cancer and 11 general practitioners) took part. Nine themes were identified during analysis. For the diagnostic interval, these were: (1) taking patient concerns seriously, (2) a sense of urgency, (3) advocacy that is doctor-driven or self-motivated, and (4) referral: "knowing who to refer to." For the pretreatment interval, themes were: (5) uncertainty, (6) psychosocial support for the patient and family before treatment, and (7) communication among the multidisciplinary team and general practitioners. Two cross-cutting themes were: (8) coordination of care and "handing over" the patient, and (9) general practitioner knowledge about lung cancer. Events were perceived as complex, with diagnosis often being revealed over time, rather than as a single event. Contributing factors at patient, system, and disease levels are described for both intervals. Patients and general practitioners expressed similar themes across the diagnostic and pretreatment intervals. Significant improvements could be made to health systems to facilitate better patient and general practitioner experiences of the diagnostic pathway. This novel presentation of patient and general practitioner perspectives indicates that systemic interventions have a role in timely and appropriate referrals to specialist care and coordination of investigations. Systemic interventions may alleviate concerns about urgency of diagnostic workup, communication, and coordination of care as patients transition from primary to specialist care.

Cardiovascular Outcomes after a Respiratory Tract Infection among Adults with Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis: A General Population-based Study.

PubMed

Navaratnam, Vidya; Root, Adrian A; Douglas, Ian; Smeeth, Liam; Hubbard, Richard B; Quint, Jennifer K

2018-03-01

Studies suggest that adults with bronchiectasis are at increased risk of cardiovascular comorbidities. We aimed to quantify the relative risk of incident cardiovascular events after a respiratory tract infection among adults with bronchiectasis. Using UK electronic primary care records, we conducted a within-person comparison using the self-controlled case series method. We calculated the relative risk of first-time cardiovascular events (either first myocardial infarction or stroke) after a respiratory tract infection compared with the individual's baseline risk. Our cohort consisted of 895 adult men and women with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis with a first myocardial infarction or stroke and at least one respiratory tract infection. There was an increased rate of first-time cardiovascular events in the 91-day period after a respiratory tract infection (incidence rate ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.02). The rate of a first cardiovascular event was highest in the first 3 days after a respiratory tract infection (incidence rate ratio, 2.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-5.27). These data suggest that respiratory tract infections are strongly associated with a transient increased risk of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke among people with bronchiectasis. As respiratory tract infections are six times more common in people with bronchiectasis than the general population, the increased risk has a disproportionately greater impact in these individuals. These findings may have implications for including cardiovascular risk modifications in airway infection treatment pathways in this population.

Increased short-term risk of thrombo-embolism or death after interruption of warfarin treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Raunsø, Jakob; Selmer, Christian; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Charlot, Mette Gitz; Olsen, Anne-Marie S; Bretler, Ditte-Marie; Nielsen, Jørn Dalsgaard; Dominguez, Helena; Gadsbøll, Niels; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

2012-08-01

It is presently unknown whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risk of thrombo-embolic adverse events after interruption of warfarin treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk and timing of thrombo-embolism after warfarin treatment interruption. A retrospective, nationwide cohort study of all patients in Denmark treated with warfarin after a first hospitalization with AF in the period 1997-2008. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of thrombo-embolic events and all-cause mortality were calculated using the Poisson regression analyses. In total, 48 989 AF patients receiving warfarin treatment were included. Of these, 35 396 patients had at least one episode of warfarin treatment interruption. In all, 8255 deaths or thrombo-embolic events occurred during treatment interruption showing an initial clustering of events with 2717, 835, 500, and 427 events occurring during 0-90, 91-180, 181-270, and 271-360 days after treatment interruption, respectively. Correspondingly, the crude incidence rates were 31.6, 17.7, 12.3, and 11.4 events per 100 patient-years. In a multivariable analysis, the first 90-day interval of treatment interruption was associated with a markedly higher risk of death or thrombo-embolism (IRR 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.3-2.8) vs. the interval of 271-360 days. In patients with AF, an interruption of warfarin treatment is associated with a significantly increased short-term risk of death or thrombo-embolic events within the first 90 days of treatment interruption.

Cure rate model with interval censored data.

PubMed

Kim, Yang-Jin; Jhun, Myoungshic

2008-01-15

In cancer trials, a significant fraction of patients can be cured, that is, the disease is completely eliminated, so that it never recurs. In general, treatments are developed to both increase the patients' chances of being cured and prolong the survival time among non-cured patients. A cure rate model represents a combination of cure fraction and survival model, and can be applied to many clinical studies over several types of cancer. In this article, the cure rate model is considered in the interval censored data composed of two time points, which include the event time of interest. Interval censored data commonly occur in the studies of diseases that often progress without symptoms, requiring clinical evaluation for detection (Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Wiley: New York, 1998; 2090-2095). In our study, an approximate likelihood approach suggested by Goetghebeur and Ryan (Biometrics 2000; 56:1139-1144) is used to derive the likelihood in interval censored data. In addition, a frailty model is introduced to characterize the association between the cure fraction and survival model. In particular, the positive association between the cure fraction and the survival time is incorporated by imposing a common normal frailty effect. The EM algorithm is used to estimate parameters and a multiple imputation based on the profile likelihood is adopted for variance estimation. The approach is applied to the smoking cessation study in which the event of interest is a smoking relapse and several covariates including an intensive care treatment are evaluated to be effective for both the occurrence of relapse and the non-smoking duration. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulator for Microlens Planet Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ipatov, Sergei I.; Horne, Keith; Alsubai, Khalid A.; Bramich, Daniel M.; Dominik, Martin; Hundertmark, Markus P. G.; Liebig, Christine; Snodgrass, Colin D. B.; Street, Rachel A.; Tsapras, Yiannis

2014-04-01

We summarize the status of a computer simulator for microlens planet surveys. The simulator generates synthetic light curves of microlensing events observed with specified networks of telescopes over specified periods of time. Particular attention is paid to models for sky brightness and seeing, calibrated by fitting to data from the OGLE survey and RoboNet observations in 2011. Time intervals during which events are observable are identified by accounting for positions of the Sun and the Moon, and other restrictions on telescope pointing. Simulated observations are then generated for an algorithm that adjusts target priorities in real time with the aim of maximizing planet detection zone area summed over all the available events. The exoplanet detection capability of observations was compared for several telescopes.

Distinctiveness revisited: unpredictable temporal isolation does not benefit short-term serial recall of heard or seen events.

PubMed

Nimmo, Lisa M; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2006-09-01

The notion of a link between time and memory is intuitively appealing and forms the core assumption of temporal distinctiveness models. Distinctiveness models predict that items that are temporally isolated from their neighbors at presentation should be recalled better than items that are temporally crowded. By contrast, event-based theories consider time to be incidental to the processes that govern memory, and such theories would not imply a temporal isolation advantage unless participants engaged in a consolidation process (e.g., rehearsal or selective encoding) that exploited the temporal structure of the list. In this report, we examine two studies that assessed the effect of temporal distinctiveness on memory, using auditory (Experiment 1) and auditory and visual (Experiment 2) presentation with unpredictably varying interitem intervals. The results show that with unpredictable intervals temporal isolation does not benefit memory, regardless of presentation modality.

Heterogeneous characters modeling of instant message services users’ online behavior

PubMed Central

Fang, Yajun; Horn, Berthold

2018-01-01

Research on temporal characteristics of human dynamics has attracted much attentions for its contribution to various areas such as communication, medical treatment, finance, etc. Existing studies show that the time intervals between two consecutive events present different non-Poisson characteristics, such as power-law, Pareto, bimodal distribution of power-law, exponential distribution, piecewise power-law, et al. With the occurrences of new services, new types of distributions may arise. In this paper, we study the distributions of the time intervals between two consecutive visits to QQ and WeChat service, the top two popular instant messaging services in China, and present a new finding that when the value of statistical unit T is set to 0.001s, the inter-event time distribution follows a piecewise distribution of exponential and power-law, indicating the heterogeneous character of IM services users’ online behavior in different time scales. We infer that the heterogeneous character is related to the communication mechanism of IM and the habits of users. Then we develop a combination model of exponential model and interest model to characterize the heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that the exponent of the inter-event time distribution of the same service is different in two cities, which is correlated with the popularity of the services. Our research is useful for the application of information diffusion, prediction of economic development of cities, and so on. PMID:29734327

Heterogeneous characters modeling of instant message services users' online behavior.

PubMed

Cui, Hongyan; Li, Ruibing; Fang, Yajun; Horn, Berthold; Welsch, Roy E

2018-01-01

Research on temporal characteristics of human dynamics has attracted much attentions for its contribution to various areas such as communication, medical treatment, finance, etc. Existing studies show that the time intervals between two consecutive events present different non-Poisson characteristics, such as power-law, Pareto, bimodal distribution of power-law, exponential distribution, piecewise power-law, et al. With the occurrences of new services, new types of distributions may arise. In this paper, we study the distributions of the time intervals between two consecutive visits to QQ and WeChat service, the top two popular instant messaging services in China, and present a new finding that when the value of statistical unit T is set to 0.001s, the inter-event time distribution follows a piecewise distribution of exponential and power-law, indicating the heterogeneous character of IM services users' online behavior in different time scales. We infer that the heterogeneous character is related to the communication mechanism of IM and the habits of users. Then we develop a combination model of exponential model and interest model to characterize the heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that the exponent of the inter-event time distribution of the same service is different in two cities, which is correlated with the popularity of the services. Our research is useful for the application of information diffusion, prediction of economic development of cities, and so on.

Joint probabilities of extreme precipitation and wind gusts in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Waldow, H.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

Extreme meteorological events such as storms, heavy rain, floods, droughts and heat waves can have devastating consequences for human health, infrastructure and ecosystems. Concomitantly occurring extreme events might interact synergistically to produce a particularly hazardous impact. The joint occurrence of droughts and heat waves, for example, can have a very different impact on human health and ecosystems both in quantity and quality, than just one of the two extreme events. The co-occurrence of certain types of extreme events is plausible from physical and dynamical considerations, for example heavy precipitation and high wind speeds in the pathway of strong extratropical cyclones. The winter storm Kyrill not only caused wind gust speeds well in excess of 30 m/s across Europe, but also brought 24 h precipitation sums greater than the mean January accumulations in some regions. However, the existence of such compound risks is currently not accounted for by insurance companies, who assume independence of extreme weather events to calculate their premiums. While there are established statistical methods to model the extremes of univariate meteorological variables, the modelling of multidimensional extremes calls for an approach that is tailored to the specific problem at hand. A first step involves defining extreme bivariate wind/precipitation events. Because precipitation and wind gusts caused by the same cyclone or convective cell do not occur at exactly the same location and at the same time, it is necessary to find a sound definition of "extreme compound event" for this case. We present a data driven method to choose appropriate time and space intervals that define "concomitance" for wind and precipitation extremes. Based on station data of wind speed and gridded precipitation data, we arrive at time and space intervals that compare well with the typical time and space scales of extratropical cyclones, i.e. a maximum time lag of 1 day and a maximum distance of about 300 km between associated wind and rain events. After modelling extreme precipitation and wind separately, we explore the practicability of characterising their joint distribution using a bivariate threshold excess model. In particular, we present different dependence measures and report about the computational feasibility and available computer codes.

TV or not TV? Does the immediacy of viewing images of a momentous news event affect the quality and stability of flashbulb memories?

PubMed

Schaefer, Evelyn G; Halldorson, Michael K; Dizon-Reynante, Cheryl

2011-04-01

The flashbulb accounts of 38 participants concerning the September 11th 2001 terrorist attack reported at both 28 hours and 6 months following the event were examined for quantity, quality, and consistency as a function of the time lapse between first learning of the event and initial viewing of media images. The flashbulb accounts of those who reported seeing images at least an hour after learning of the event differed qualitatively, but not quantitatively, from accounts of participants who reported seeing images at the same time as or within minutes of learning of the event. Delayed viewing of images resulted in less elaborate and generally less consistent accounts across the 6-month interval. The results are discussed in terms of factors affecting flashbulb memory formation and individual differences in connectedness to the event.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Dead-time compensation for a logarithmic display rate meter

DOEpatents

Larson, John A.; Krueger, Frederick P.

1988-09-20

An improved circuit is provided for application to a radiation survey meter that uses a detector that is subject to dead time. The circuit compensates for dead time over a wide range of count rates by producing a dead-time pulse for each detected event, a live-time pulse that spans the interval between dead-time pulses, and circuits that average the value of these pulses over time. The logarithm of each of these values is obtained and the logarithms are subtracted to provide a signal that is proportional to a count rate that is corrected for the effects of dead time. The circuit produces a meter indication and is also capable of producing an audible indication of detected events.

Dead-time compensation for a logarithmic display rate meter

DOEpatents

Larson, J.A.; Krueger, F.P.

1987-10-05

An improved circuit is provided for application to a radiation survey meter that uses a detector that is subject to dead time. The circuit compensates for dead time over a wide range of count rates by producing a dead-time pulse for each detected event, a live-time pulse that spans the interval between dead-time pulses, and circuits that average the value of these pulses over time. The logarithm of each of these values is obtained and the logarithms are subtracted to provide a signal that is proportional to a count rate that is corrected for the effects of dead time. The circuit produces a meter indication and is also capable of producing an audible indication of detected events. 5 figs.

Large Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami found in lacustrine deposits through late Holocene-time along the western coast of Kii Peninsula, southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamura, M.; Matsuoka, H.; Tsuzuki, M.; Toraya, K.

2015-12-01

We continue paleo-seismic studies through Late Holocene-time in coastal marsh ponds along the Nankai Trough . These ponds which are co-seismic subsidence areas have continuous muddy sediment stratigraphy and sporadic tsunami induced coarse material. Well controlled age data has been collected from the core-sample that contains plant remains under anoxic sedimentary environment . Total 21 cores collected from two coastal ponds Ashihama-ike and Zasa-ike which locate behind beach-ridge along southeastern coast of Kii Peninsula under Tokai/Tonankai Earthquake assumption areas. Tsunami events are recognized after eighty AMS C-14 dating through recent (core top) to 7300 yBP interval. Among these interval, two remarkable events found in sediment, which are 2050yBP to 2300yBP (=2K event) and 1000yBP to 1100 yBP. 2k event consists thick sand, well rounded gravel in chaotic mud and wood fragment derived from forests surrounding lakes. Later event is correspond to the historical Ninna Nankai earthquake (AD887, 26 August under the old lunar calendar).　Rather small events are occurred in 3500yBP and 1100yBP. These events are found from both of two ponds which has two kilometers in distance each other. Cores bottom are composed of 7400yBP huge-tsunami event caused simultaneously by the Kikai-caldera eruption (over 170 cubic km ejecta) is just covered with the Kikai-Akahoya (K-Ah) tephra. The 2K and volcanic tsunami events have also found widely, not only Kii Peninsula but southern Shikoku (Tokushima Pref. and Kochi Pref.) and Kyushu through the Nankai Trough.

The Development of Temporal Metamemory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, William J.

2007-01-01

In two studies of knowledge about the properties and processes of memory for the times of past events, 178 children from 5 through 13 years of age and 40 adults answered questions about how they would remember times on different scales, how temporal memory is affected by retention interval, and the usefulness of different methods. The adults…

Active Missions and the VxOs with THEMIS as an Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibeck, D. G.; Merka, J.

2009-01-01

The Virtual Observatories (VxOs) provide a host of services to data producers and researchers. They help data producers to describe their data in standard Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) terms that enable scientists to understand data products from a wide range of missions. They offer search interfaces based on specified criteria that help researchers discover conjunctions, prominent events, and intervals of interest. In this talk, we show how VMO services can be used with Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) observations to identify magnetotail intervals marked by high speed flows, enhanced densities, or high temperatures. We present statistical surveys of when and where these phenomena occur. We then show how the VMO services can be used to identify events in which two or more THEMIS spacecraft observe specified features for more detailed analysis. We conclude by discussing the current limitations of VMO tools and outline plans for the future.

Testing 8000 years of submarine paleoseismicity record offshore western Algeria : First evidence for irregular seismic cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratzov, G.; Cattaneo, A.; Babonneau, N.; Yelles, K.; Bracene, R.; Deverchere, J.

2012-12-01

It is commonly assumed that stress buildup along a given fault is proportional to the time elapsed since the previous earthquake. Although the resulting « seismic gap » hypothesis suits well for moderate magnitude earthquakes (Mw 4-5), large events (Mw>6) are hardly predictable and depict great variation in recurrence intervals. Models based on stress transfer and interactions between faults argue that an earthquake may promote or delay the occurrence of next earthquakes on adjacent faults by increasing or lowering the level of static stress. The Algerian margin is a Cenozoic passive margin presently inverted within the slow convergence between Africa and Eurasia plates (~3-6 mm/yr). The western margin experienced two large earthquakes in 1954 (Orléansville, M 6.7) and 1980 (El Asnam, M 7.3), supporting an interaction between the two faults. To get meaningful statistics of large earthquakes recurrence intervals over numerous seismic cycles, we conducted a submarine paleoseismicity investigation based on turbidite chronostratigraphy. As evidenced on the Cascadia subduction zone, synchronous turbidites accumulated over a large area and originated from independent sources are likely triggered by an earthquake. To test the method on a slowly convergent margin, we analyze turbidites from three sediment cores collected during the Maradja (2003) and Prisme (2007) cruises off the 1954-1980 source areas. We use X-ray radioscopy, XRF major elements counter, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution to accurately discriminate turbidites from hemipelagites. We date turbidites by calculating hemipelagic sedimentation rates obtained with radiocarbon ages, and interpolate the rates between turbidites. Finally, the age of events is compared with the only paleoseismic study available on land (El Asnam fault). Fourteen possible seismic events are identified by the counting and correlation of turbidites over the last 8 ka. Most events are correlated with the paleoseismic record of the El Asnam fault, but uncorrelated events suggest that other faults were active. Only the 1954 event (not the 1980) triggered a turbidity current, implying that the sediment buffer on the continental shelf could not be reloaded in 26 years, thus arguing for a minimum time resolution of our method. The new paleoseismic catalog shows a recurrence interval of 300-700 years for most events, but also a great interval of >1200 years without any major earthquake. This result suggests that the level of static stress may have drastically dropped as a result of three main events occurring within the 800 years prior the quiescence period.

An Analysis of the Understanding of Geological Time by Students at Secondary and Post-Secondary Level. Research Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hidalgo, Antonio J.; Otero, Jose

2004-01-01

This paper addresses the concept of geological time as used by students who face tasks that demand three types of skills: to locate events in time, to order them according to time calendar, and to manage time intervals. The empirical study consisted of asking high school students as well as technical school students to carry out tasks that…

Optimising 4-D surface change detection: an approach for capturing rockfall magnitude-frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Jack G.; Rosser, Nick J.; Hardy, Richard J.; Brain, Matthew J.; Afana, Ashraf A.

2018-02-01

We present a monitoring technique tailored to analysing change from near-continuously collected, high-resolution 3-D data. Our aim is to fully characterise geomorphological change typified by an event magnitude-frequency relationship that adheres to an inverse power law or similar. While recent advances in monitoring have enabled changes in volume across more than 7 orders of magnitude to be captured, event frequency is commonly assumed to be interchangeable with the time-averaged event numbers between successive surveys. Where events coincide, or coalesce, or where the mechanisms driving change are not spatially independent, apparent event frequency must be partially determined by survey interval.The data reported have been obtained from a permanently installed terrestrial laser scanner, which permits an increased frequency of surveys. Surveying from a single position raises challenges, given the single viewpoint onto a complex surface and the need for computational efficiency associated with handling a large time series of 3-D data. A workflow is presented that optimises the detection of change by filtering and aligning scans to improve repeatability. An adaptation of the M3C2 algorithm is used to detect 3-D change to overcome data inconsistencies between scans. Individual rockfall geometries are then extracted and the associated volumetric errors modelled. The utility of this approach is demonstrated using a dataset of ˜ 9 × 103 surveys acquired at ˜ 1 h intervals over 10 months. The magnitude-frequency distribution of rockfall volumes generated is shown to be sensitive to monitoring frequency. Using a 1 h interval between surveys, rather than 30 days, the volume contribution from small (< 0.1 m3) rockfalls increases from 67 to 98 % of the total, and the number of individual rockfalls observed increases by over 3 orders of magnitude. High-frequency monitoring therefore holds considerable implications for magnitude-frequency derivatives, such as hazard return intervals and erosion rates. As such, while high-frequency monitoring has potential to describe short-term controls on geomorphological change and more realistic magnitude-frequency relationships, the assessment of longer-term erosion rates may be more suited to less-frequent data collection with lower accumulative errors.

Disease Activity in Rheumatoid Arthritis and the Risk of Cardiovascular Events

PubMed Central

Solomon, DH; Reed, G; Kremer, JM; Curtis, JR; Farkouh, ME; Harrold, LR; Hochberg, MC; Tsao, P; Greenberg, J

2015-01-01

Background Use of several immunomodulatory agents has been associated with reduced cardiovascular (CV) events in epidemiologic studies of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unknown whether time-averaged disease activity in RA correlates with CV events. Methods We studied patients with RA followed in a longitudinal US-based registry. Time-averaged disease activity was assessed using the area under the curve of the Clinical Disease Activity Index, a validated measure of rheumatoid arthritis disease activity, assessed during follow-up. Age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, body mass index, family history of myocardial infarction (MI), aspirin use, NSAID use presence of CV disease, and baseline immunomodulator use were assessed at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models were examined to determine the risk of a composite CV endpoint that included MI, stroke, and CV death. Results 24,989 subjects followed for a median of 2.7 years were included in these analyses. During follow-up, we observed 422 confirmed CV endpoints for an incidence rate of 9.08 (95% confidence interval, CI, 7.90 – 10.26) per 1,000 person-years. In models adjusting for variables noted above, a 10-point reduction in time-averaged Clinical Disease Activity Index was associated with a 26% reduction in CV risk (95% confidence interval 17-34%). These results were robust in subgroup analyses stratified by presence of CV disease, use of corticosteroids, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or selective COX-2 inhibitors, change in RA treatment, and also when restricted to events adjudicated as definite or probable. Conclusions Reduced time-averaged disease activity in RA is associated with fewer CV events. PMID:25776112

Are Earthquake Clusters/Supercycles Real or Random?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.

2016-12-01

Long records of earthquakes at plate boundaries such as the San Andreas or Cascadia often show that large earthquakes occur in temporal clusters, also termed supercycles, separated by less active intervals. These are intriguing because the boundary is presumably being loaded by steady plate motion. If so, earthquakes resulting from seismic cycles - in which their probability is small shortly after the past one, and then increases with time - should occur quasi-periodically rather than be more frequent in some intervals than others. We are exploring this issue with two approaches. One is to assess whether the clusters result purely by chance from a time-independent process that has no "memory." Thus a future earthquake is equally likely immediately after the past one and much later, so earthquakes can cluster in time. We analyze the agreement between such a model and inter-event times for Parkfield, Pallet Creek, and other records. A useful tool is transformation by the inverse cumulative distribution function, so the inter-event times have a uniform distribution when the memorylessness property holds. The second is via a time-variable model in which earthquake probability increases with time between earthquakes and decreases after an earthquake. The probability of an event increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not to zero. Hence after a long period of quiescence, the probability of an earthquake can remain higher than the long-term average for several cycles. Thus the probability of another earthquake is path dependent, i.e. depends on the prior earthquake history over multiple cycles. Time histories resulting from simulations give clusters with properties similar to those observed. The sequences of earthquakes result from both the model parameters and chance, so two runs with the same parameters look different. The model parameters control the average time between events and the variation of the actual times around this average, so models can be strongly or weakly time-dependent.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

2013-01-01

We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

Periodicity of extinction: A 1988 update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkowski, J. John, Jr.

1988-01-01

The hypothesis that events of mass extinction recur periodically at approximately 26 my intervals is an empirical claim based on analysis of data from the fossil record. The hypothesis has become closely linked with catastrophism because several events in the periodic series are associated with evidence of extraterrestrial impacts, and terrestrial forcing mechanisms with long, periodic recurrences are not easily conceived. Astronomical mechanisms that have been hypothesized include undetected solar companions and solar oscillation about the galactic plane, which induce comet showers and result in impacts on Earth at regular intervals. Because these mechanisms are speculative, they have been the subject of considerable controversy, as has the hypothesis of periodicity of extinction. In response to criticisms and uncertainties, a data base was developed on times of extinction of marine animal genera. A time series is given and analyzed with 49 sample points for the per-genus extinction rate from the Late Permian to the Recent. An unexpected pattern in the data is the uniformity of magnitude of many of the periodic extinction events. Observations suggest that the sequence of extinction events might be the result of two sets of mechanisms: a periodic forcing that normally induces only moderate amounts of extinction, and independent incidents or catastrophes that, when coincident with the periodic forcing, amplify its signal and produce major-mass extinctions.

Interepisode Sleep Bruxism Intervals and Myofascial Face Pain.

PubMed

Muzalev, Konstantin; Lobbezoo, Frank; Janal, Malvin N; Raphael, Karen G

2017-08-01

Sleep bruxism (SB) is considered as a possible etiological factor for temporomandibular disorder (TMD) pain. However, polysomnographic (PSG) studies, which are current "gold standard" diagnostic approach to SB, failed to prove an association between SB and TMD. A possible explanation could be that PSG studies have considered only limited characteristics of SB activity: the number of SB events per hour and, sometimes, the total duration of SB per night. According to the sports sciences literature, lack of adequate rest time between muscle activities leads to muscle overloading and pain. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine whether the intervals between bruxism events differ between patients with and without TMD pain. Two groups of female volunteers were recruited: myofascial TMD pain group (n=124) and non-TMD control group (n=46). From these groups, we selected 86 (69%) case participants and 37 (80%) controls who had at least two SB episodes per night based on PSG recordings. A linear mixed model was used to compare case and control groups over the repeated observations of interepisode intervals. The duration of interepisode intervals was statistically similar in the case (mean [standard deviation {SD}] 1137.7 [1975.8] seconds)] and control (mean [SD] 1192.0 [1972.0] seconds) groups. There were also a similar number of SB episodes per hour and a total duration of SB episodes in both groups. The current data fail to support the idea that TMD pain can be explained by increasing number of SB episodes per hour of sleep or decreasing the time between SB events. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.

An analysis of first-time blood donors return behaviour using regression models.

PubMed

Kheiri, S; Alibeigi, Z

2015-08-01

Blood products have a vital role in saving many patients' lives. The aim of this study was to analyse blood donor return behaviour. Using a cross-sectional follow-up design of 5-year duration, 864 first-time donors who had donated blood were selected using a systematic sampling. The behaviours of donors via three response variables, return to donation, frequency of return to donation and the time interval between donations, were analysed based on logistic regression, negative binomial regression and Cox's shared frailty model for recurrent events respectively. Successful return to donation rated at 49·1% and the deferral rate was 13·3%. There was a significant reverse relationship between the frequency of return to donation and the time interval between donations. Sex, body weight and job had an effect on return to donation; weight and frequency of donation during the first year had a direct effect on the total frequency of donations. Age, weight and job had a significant effect on the time intervals between donations. Aging decreases the chances of return to donation and increases the time interval between donations. Body weight affects the three response variables, i.e. the higher the weight, the more the chances of return to donation and the shorter the time interval between donations. There is a positive correlation between the frequency of donations in the first year and the total number of return to donations. Also, the shorter the time interval between donations is, the higher the frequency of donations. © 2015 British Blood Transfusion Society.

Observations of hybrid seismic events at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: July 1995 to September 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, R.A.; Miller, A.D.; Lynch, L.; Power, J.

1998-01-01

Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300 000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over ??1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events 'hybrid' between long-period and voclano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10 000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.Swarms of small repetitive events with similar waveforms and magnitudes are often observed during the emplacement of lava domes. Over 300,000 such events were recorded in association with the emplacement of the lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 1995 through August 1996. These events originated <2-3 km deep. They exhibited energy ranging over approximately 1.5-4.5 Hz and were broader band than typical long-period events. We term the events `hybrid' between long-period and volcano-tectonic. The events were more impulsive and broader band prior to, compared with during and after, periods of inferred increased magma flux rate. Individual swarms contained up to 10,000 events often exhibiting very similar magnitudes and waveforms throughout the swarm. Swarms lasted hours to weeks, during which inter-event intervals generally increased, then decreased, often several times. Long-duration swarms began about every two months starting in late September 1995. We speculate that the events were produced as the magma column degassed into adjacent cracks.

Evidence for Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the Surface Waters Above ODP Site 980, NE Atlantic Ocean During the Last Glacial Interval (MIS 4-2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, J. R.; Cullen, J. L.; McManus, J. F.; Oppo, D. W.

2004-05-01

Successful efforts to recover quality high sedimentation rate deep-sea sediment sections from the North Atlantic over the last decade have produced a number of studies demonstrating that climate instability at sub-orbital and even millennial time-scales is a pervasive component of Late Pleistocene North Atlantic climate. This is particularly true during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4-2, i.e., the last glacial interval. One such high sedimentation rate section was recovered at ODP Site 980, Northeast Atlantic Ocean where sedimentation rates during MIS 4-2 exceed 15cm/kyr. Recently, we have begun to generate more detailed records from MIS 4-2 at Site 980 by reducing our sampling interval from 20 to around 2.5 cm, improving the resolution of our records an order of magnitude, from 1200-1300 to 100-200 years. 300 samples were used to generate high resolution records of changes in the input of ice-rafted detritus (IRD), along with limited data documenting changes in the relative abundance of the N. pachyderma, left coiling, which can be evaluated within the context of our previously generated lower resolution planktic and benthic oxygen isotope records used to generate our age model for this interval. Our previously published low resolution IRD record enabled us to identify Heinrich events 1-6 within the sediment interval deposited during the last glacial. Each event is characterized by IRD concentrations ranging from 500 to over 2500 lithic grains >150 microns per gram sediment. Superimposing our new high resolution IRD record reveals that Heinrich events 3,2,1 occurring at approximately 32, 23, and 17 kya, respectively, are each composed of a series of separate abrupt rapid increases in IRD concentrations approaching 1,000 grains per gram. An additional comparable event occurring at approximately 20 kya has also been identified. In the early part of the last glacial H6, H5, and H4 occurring at approximately 66, 47, and 38 kya, respectively, are recorded as much more abrupt and rapid increases in IRD concentrations to 2,000 or greater lithic grains per gram than were observed in our previous record. There are two 5 kyr intervals between H6 and H5 that contain little or no IRD. An additional abrupt IRD event is recorded at approximately 34 kya. Thus, our new IRD record is recording a series of additional episodic increases in IRD concentrations comparable in intensity to the identified Heinrich events. This suggests that ODP Site 980 sediments are recording a series of more closely spaced episodic increases in IRD concentration that can be directly related to the Dansgaard/Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores. Comparison of our preliminary high resolution record of changes in the relative abundance of the polar species N. pachyderma, left coiling, to our IRD record suggests that the input of iceberg bearing waters precedes the increases in the relative abundance of N. pachyderma, left coiling for the early glacial IRD events. Whereas the abrupt increases in N. pachyderma, left coiling seem to occur during the later glacial IRD events. Thus, in the early glacial the influx of icebergs seem to occur before the invasion of cooler surface waters as opposed to the same time later in the glacial.

A catalogue of solar cosmic ray events: IMPS 4 and 5, May 1967 - December 1972. [analysis of data acquired during operation of Explorer 34 and 41 satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanhollebeke, M. A.; Wang, J. R.; Mcdonald, F. B.

1974-01-01

This catalogue of solar cosmic ray events has been prepared for the use of solar physicists and other interested scientists. It contains some 185 solar particle events detected by the Goddard Space Flight Center Cosmic Ray Experiments on IMP's IV and V (Explorer 34 and 41) for the period May 1967 - December 1972. The data is presented in the form of hourly averages for three proton energy intervals - 0.9 - 1.6 MeV; 6 - 20 MeV and 20 - 80 MeV. In addition the time histories of .5 - 1.1 MeV electrons are shown on a separate scale. To assist in the identification of related solar events, the onset time of the electron event is indicated. The details of the instrumentation and detector techniques are described. Further descriptions of data reduction procedure and on the time-history plots are given.

Wasatch fault zone, Utah - segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, Michael N.; Personius, Stephen F.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schwartz, David P.; Lund, William R.

1991-01-01

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. The authors have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of ???10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2-4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ?? 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. Evidence has been found that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval.

Allopurinol and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adults With Hypertension.

PubMed

MacIsaac, Rachael L; Salatzki, Janek; Higgins, Peter; Walters, Matthew R; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Dominiczak, Anna F; Touyz, Rhian M; Dawson, Jesse

2016-03-01

Allopurinol lowers blood pressure in adolescents and has other vasoprotective effects. Whether similar benefits occur in older individuals remains unclear. We hypothesized that allopurinol is associated with improved cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with hypertension. Data from the United Kingdom Clinical Research Practice Datalink were used. Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios for stroke and cardiac events (defined as myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome) associated with allopurinol use over a 10-year period in adults aged >65 years with hypertension. A propensity-matched design was used to reduce potential for confounding. Allopurinol exposure was a time-dependent variable and was defined as any exposure and then as high (≥300 mg daily) or low-dose exposure. A total of 2032 allopurinol-exposed patients and 2032 matched nonexposed patients were studied. Allopurinol use was associated with a significantly lower risk of both stroke (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.80) and cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.87) than nonexposed control patients. In exposed patients, high-dose treatment with allopurinol (n=1052) was associated with a significantly lower risk of both stroke (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.94) and cardiac events (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.93) than low-dose treatment (n=980). Allopurinol use is associated with lower rates of stroke and cardiac events in older adults with hypertension, particularly at higher doses. Prospective clinical trials are needed to evaluate whether allopurinol improves cardiovascular outcomes in adults with hypertension. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberti, T.; Laurenza, M.; Cliver, E. W.; Storini, M.; Consolini, G.; Lepreti, F.

2017-03-01

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ˜1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995-2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September-2002 September) and 24 (2008 December-2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ˜1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m-2 and >6 × 105 sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ˜30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (˜40% versus ˜30%) is obtained for the 2006-2014 interval in comparison with 1995-2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006-2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995-2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006-2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ˜2 hr (˜7 hr), versus ˜6 hr (˜9 hr), for the 1995-2005 data set.

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alberti, T.; Lepreti, F.; Laurenza, M.

2017-03-20

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares andmore » SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.« less

Luminosity variations in several parallel auroral arcs before auroral breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safargaleev, V.; Lyatsky, W.; Tagirov, V.

1997-08-01

Variation of the luminosity in two parallel auroral arcs before auroral breakup has been studied by using digitised TV-data with high temporal and spatial resolution. The intervals when a new arc appears near already existing one were chosen for analysis. It is shown, for all cases, that the appearance of a new arc is accompanied by fading or disappearance of another arc. We have named these events out-of-phase events, OP. Another type of luminosity variation is characterised by almost simultaneous enhancement of intensity in the both arcs (in-phase event, IP). The characteristic time of IP events is 10-20 s, whereas OP events last about one minute. Sometimes out-of-phase events begin as IP events. The possible mechanisms for OP and IP events are discussed.

Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, and the risk of first-time venous thromboembolism. A report from the VEINS cohort study.

PubMed

Johansson, Magdalena; Lind, Marcus; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Fhärm, Eva; Johansson, Lars

2018-05-01

It remains unclear whether high plasma glucose levels are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). This study investigated the association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test (two-hour post-load plasma glucose (2HPG)), diabetes, and VTE. The population-based, prospective Venous thromboEmbolism In Northern Sweden (VEINS) cohort study included 108,025 residents of Västerbotten County in northern Sweden. The participants were aged 30 to 60 years and had no previous VTE events. They were included from 1985 onwards and were followed until a VTE event, death, emigration, or the study end on September 5, 2014. All underwent a health examination that measured weight, height, FPG, and 2HPG and included a questionnaire regarding smoking, education level, and history of diabetes. Potential VTE events were identified by an extensive diagnosis registry search and were validated by reviewing medical records and radiology reports. An objectively verified first-time VTE event was experienced by 2054 participants during 1,496,669 person-years of follow-up. In univariable analysis, there were associations between FPG, 2HPG, diabetes, and the risk of VTE. These associations disappeared after adjustment for potential confounders (age, sex, body mass index, cancer at inclusion, education level, smoking, and hypertension). The adjusted hazard ratios were 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.83-1.23) for diabetes, 1.01 for each standard deviation of FPG (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.05), and 0.96 for each standard deviation of 2HPG (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00). There were no independent associations between FPG, 2HPG, diabetes, and future risk of VTE. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of shock-associated fast-drift kilometric radio bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdowall, R. J.; Kundu, M. R.; Stone, R. G.

1987-01-01

The existence of a class of fast-drift, shock-associated (SA), kilometric radio bursts which occur at the time of metric type II emission and which are not entirely the kilometric continuation of metric type III bursts has been reported previously (Cane et al., 1981). In this paper unambiguous SA event criteria are established for the purpose of statistically comparing SA events with conventional kilometric type III bursts. Applying these criteria to all long-duration, fast-drift bursts observed by the ISEE-3 spacecraft during a 28-month interval, it is found that more than 70 percent of the events satisfying the criteria are associated with the radio signatures of coronal shocks. If a given event is associated with a metric type II or type IV burst, it is 13 times more likely to satisfy the SA criteria than an event associated only with metric type III activity.

A Comparison of Reliability Measures for Continuous and Discontinuous Recording Methods: Inflated Agreement Scores with Partial Interval Recording and Momentary Time Sampling for Duration Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapp, John T.; Carroll, Regina A.; Stangeland, Lindsay; Swanson, Greg; Higgins, William J.

2011-01-01

The authors evaluated the extent to which interobserver agreement (IOA) scores, using the block-by-block method for events scored with continuous duration recording (CDR), were higher when the data from the same sessions were converted to discontinuous methods. Sessions with IOA scores of 89% or less with CDR were rescored using 10-s partial…

Light Isotope Abundances in SEPS measured by NINA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparvoli, R.; Bidoli, V.; Casolino, M.; De Pascale, M.; Furano, G.; Iannucci, A.; Morselli, A.; Picozza, P.; Bakaldin, A.; Galper, A.; Koldashov, S.; Korotkov, M.; Leonov, A.; Mikhailov, V.; Murashov, A.; Voronov, S.; Boezio, M.; Bonvicini, V.; Cirami, R.; Vacchi, A.; Zampa, N.; Ambriola, M.; Bellotti, R.; Cafagna, F.; Ciacio, F.; Circella, M.; De Marzo, C.; Adriani, O.; Papini, P.; Spillantini, P.; Straulino, S.; Vannuccini, E.; Bartalucci, S.; Ricci, M.; Castellini, G.; Wizard-NINA Collaboration

2001-08-01

Observations of 9 Solar Energetic Particle events detected by the instrument NINA from November 1998 to April 1999 will be presented. NINA is a silicon-based space detector in orbit since July 1998 on board the Russian satellite Resurs-01-N4, which flies at low altitude (about 800 km) in polar inclination. For every SEP event we reconstructed the power-law 4 He spectrum in the energy interval 10-50 MeV/n, extracting spectral indexes from 1.8 to 6.8. Data of 3 He and 4 He were then employed to determine the 3 He/4 He ratio, that turned out to be high for some SEP events showing the enrichment in 3 He. For the 7 November 1998 event this ratio reached the maximum value of 0.33 ± 0.06, with spectral indexes 2.5 ± 0.6 and 3.7 ± 0.3 for 3 He and 4 He, respectively. The 3 He/4 He ratio averaged over the remaining events was 0.011 ± 0.004. For all events we determined the deuterium-to-proton ratio. The average value of the 2 H/1 H ratio, over all events, was (3.9±1.4)× 10-5 in the energy interval 9-12 MeV/n. During 24 November 1998 event, however, this ratio resulted about 10 times higher than normal coronal values.

Reduced birth intervals following the birth of children with long-term illness: evidence supporting a conditional evolved response.

PubMed

Waynforth, David

2015-10-01

Human birth interval length is indicative of the level of parental investment that a child will receive: a short interval following birth means that parental resources must be split with a younger sibling during a period when the older sibling remains highly dependent on their parents. From a life-history theoretical perspective, it is likely that there are evolved mechanisms that serve to maximize fitness depending on context. One context that would be expected to result in short birth intervals, and lowered parental investment, is after a child with low expected fitness is born. Here, data drawn from a longitudinal British birth cohort study were used to test whether birth intervals were shorter following the birth of a child with a long-term health problem. Data on the timing of 4543 births were analysed using discrete-time event history analysis. The results were consistent with the hypothesis: birth intervals were shorter following the birth of a child diagnosed by a medical professional with a severe but non-fatal medical condition. Covariates in the analysis were also significantly associated with birth interval length: births of twins or multiple births, and relationship break-up were associated with significantly longer birth intervals. © 2015 The Author(s).

Evaluating Protocol Lifecycle Time Intervals in HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Schouten, Jeffrey T.; Dixon, Dennis; Varghese, Suresh; Cope, Marie T.; Marci, Joe; Kagan, Jonathan M.

2014-01-01

Background Identifying efficacious interventions for the prevention and treatment of human diseases depends on the efficient development and implementation of controlled clinical trials. Essential to reducing the time and burden of completing the clinical trial lifecycle is determining which aspects take the longest, delay other stages, and may lead to better resource utilization without diminishing scientific quality, safety, or the protection of human subjects. Purpose In this study we modeled time-to-event data to explore relationships between clinical trial protocol development and implementation times, as well as identify potential correlates of prolonged development and implementation. Methods We obtained time interval and participant accrual data from 111 interventional clinical trials initiated between 2006 and 2011 by NIH’s HIV/AIDS Clinical Trials Networks. We determined the time (in days) required to complete defined phases of clinical trial protocol development and implementation. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to assess the rates at which protocols reached specified terminal events, stratified by study purpose (therapeutic, prevention) and phase group (pilot/phase I, phase II, and phase III/ IV). We also examined several potential correlates to prolonged development and implementation intervals. Results Even though phase grouping did not determine development or implementation times of either therapeutic or prevention studies, overall we observed wide variation in protocol development times. Moreover, we detected a trend toward phase III/IV therapeutic protocols exhibiting longer developmental (median 2 ½ years) and implementation times (>3years). We also found that protocols exceeding the median number of days for completing the development interval had significantly longer implementation. Limitations The use of a relatively small set of protocols may have limited our ability to detect differences across phase groupings. Some timing effects present for a specific study phase may have been masked by combining protocols into phase groupings. Presence of informative censoring, such as withdrawal of some protocols from development if they began showing signs of lost interest among investigators, complicates interpretation of Kaplan-Meier estimates. Because this study constitutes a retrospective examination over an extended period of time, it does not allow for the precise identification of relative factors impacting timing. Conclusions Delays not only increase the time and cost to complete clinical trials, but they also diminish their usefulness by failing to answer research questions in time. We believe that research analyzing the time spent traversing defined intervals across the clinical trial protocol development and implementation continuum can stimulate business process analyses and reengineering efforts that could lead to reductions in the time from clinical trial concept to results, thereby accelerating progress in clinical research. PMID:24980279

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation quality: Widespread variation in data intervals used for analysis.

PubMed

Talikowska, Milena; Tohira, Hideo; Bailey, Paul; Finn, Judith

2016-05-01

There is a growing body of evidence for the relationship between CPR quality and survival in cardiac arrest patients. We sought to describe the characteristics of the analysis intervals used across studies. Relevant papers were selected as described in our recent systematic review. From these papers we collected information about (1) the time interval used for analysis; (2) the event that marked the beginning of the analysis interval; and (3) the minimum amount of CPR quality data required for a case to be included in the analysed cohort. We then compared this data across papers. Twenty-one studies reported on the association between CPR quality and cardiac arrest patient survival. In two thirds of studies data from the start of the resuscitation episode was analysed, in particular the first 5min. Commencement of the analysis interval was marked by various events including ECG pad placement and first chest compression. Nine studies specified a minimum amount of data that had to have been collected for the individual case to be included in the analysis; most commonly 1min of data. The use of shorter intervals allowed for inclusion of more cases as it included cases that did not have a complete dataset. To facilitate comparisons across studies, a standardised definition of the data analysis interval should be developed; one that maximises the amount of cases available without compromising the data's representability of the resuscitation effort. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single-Trial Analysis of Inter-Beat Interval Perturbations Accompanying Single-Switch Scanning: Case Series of Three Children With Severe Spastic Quadriplegic Cerebral Palsy.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Chau, Tom

2016-02-01

Single-switch access in conjunction with scanning remains a fundamental solution in restoring communication for many children with profound physical disabilities. However, untimely switch inaction and unintentional switch activations can lead to user frustration and impede functional communication. A previous preliminary study, in the context of a case series with three single-switch users, reported that correct, accidental and missed switch activations could elicit cardiac deceleration and increased phasic skin conductance on average, while deliberate switch non-use was associated with autonomic nonresponse. The present study investigated the possibility of using blood volume pulse recordings from the same three pediatric single-switch users to track the aforementioned switch events on a single-trial basis. Peaks of the line length time series derived from the empirical mode decomposition of the inter-beat interval time series matched, on average, a high percentage (above 80%) of single-switch events, while unmatched peaks coincided moderately (below 37%) with idle time during scanning. These results encourage further study of autonomic measures as complementary information channels to enhance single-switch access.

Writing the names: marriage style, living arrangements, and first birth interval in a Nepali society.

PubMed

Fricke, T; Teachman, J D

1993-05-01

Using data from a Nepali population, this analysis argues that marriage style and postmarital living arrangements affect coital frequency to produce variations in the timing of first birth after marriage. Event history analysis of the first birth interval for 149 women suggests that women's autonomy in marriage decisions and marriage to cross-cousins accelerate the pace of entry into first birth. Extended-household residence with reduced natal kin contact, on the other hand, significantly lengthens the first birth interval. These findings are consistent with previous arguments in the literature while offering new evidence for the impact of extended-family residence on fertility.

Detection of timescales in evolving complex systems

PubMed Central

Darst, Richard K.; Granell, Clara; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Saramäki, Jari; Fortunato, Santo

2016-01-01

Most complex systems are intrinsically dynamic in nature. The evolution of a dynamic complex system is typically represented as a sequence of snapshots, where each snapshot describes the configuration of the system at a particular instant of time. This is often done by using constant intervals but a better approach would be to define dynamic intervals that match the evolution of the system’s configuration. To this end, we propose a method that aims at detecting evolutionary changes in the configuration of a complex system, and generates intervals accordingly. We show that evolutionary timescales can be identified by looking for peaks in the similarity between the sets of events on consecutive time intervals of data. Tests on simple toy models reveal that the technique is able to detect evolutionary timescales of time-varying data both when the evolution is smooth as well as when it changes sharply. This is further corroborated by analyses of several real datasets. Our method is scalable to extremely large datasets and is computationally efficient. This allows a quick, parameter-free detection of multiple timescales in the evolution of a complex system. PMID:28004820

Induced seismicity in EGS reservoir : analysis of persistent multiplets at Soultz-sous-Forêts, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauchie, Léna; Lengliné, Olivier; Schmittbuhl, Jean

2017-04-01

Abundant seismicity is generally observed during the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs, especially during phases of hydraulic stimulations. At the Enhanced Geothermal System of Soultz-Sous-Forêts in France, the induced seismicity has been thoroughly studied over the years of exploitation and the mechanism at its origin has been related to both fluid pressure increase during stimulation and aseismic creeping movements. The fluid-induced seismic events often exhibit a high degree of similarity and the mechanism at the origin of these repeated events is thought to be associated with slow slip process where asperities on the rupture zone act several times. In order to improve our knowledge on the mechanisms associated with such events and on the damaged zones involved during the hydraulic stimulations, we investigate the behaviour of the multiplets and their persistent nature, if it prevails, over several water injection intervals. For this purpose, we analysed large datasets recorded from a downhole seismic network for several water injection periods (1993, 2000, …). For each stimulation interval, thousands of events are recorded at depth. We detected the events using the continuous kurtosis-based migration method and classified them into families of comparable waveforms using an approach based on cross-correlation analysis. We obtain precise relative locations of the multiplets using differential arrival times obtained through cross-correlation of similar waveforms. Finally, the properties of the similar fluid-induced seismic events are derived (magnitude, spectral content) and examined over the several hydraulic tests. Hopefully these steps will lead to a better understanding of the repetitive nature of these events and the investigation of their persistence will outline the heterogeneities of the structures (temperatures anomalies, regional stress perturbations, fluid flow channelling) regularly involved during the different stimulations.

Perceived duration of emotional events: evidence for a positivity effect in older adults.

PubMed

Nicol, Jeffrey R; Tanner, Jessica; Clarke, Kelly

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Arousal and negative affect modulate the effect of emotion on the subjective experience of the passage of time. Given that older adults are less aroused by negative emotional stimuli, and report lower levels of negative affect, compared with younger adults, the present study examined whether the effect of emotion on time perception differed in older and younger adults. Participants performed a temporal bisection task for emotional (i.e., angry, sad, happy) and neutral facial expressions presented at varying temporal intervals. Older adults perceived the duration of both positive and threatening events longer than neutral events, whereas younger adults only perceived threatening events longer than neutral events. The results, which are partially consistent with the positivity effect of aging postulated by the socioemotional selectivity theory, are the first to show how the effect of emotion on perceived duration affects older adults, and support previous research indicating that only threatening events prolong perceived duration in younger adults.

A novel handheld device for use in remote patient monitoring of heart failure patients--design and preliminary validation on healthy subjects.

PubMed

Pollonini, Luca; Rajan, Nithin O; Xu, Shuai; Madala, Sridhar; Dacso, Clifford C

2012-04-01

Remote patient monitoring (RPM) holds great promise for reducing the burden of congestive heart failure (CHF). Improved sensor technology and effective predictive algorithms can anticipate sudden decompensation events. Enhanced telemonitoring systems would promote patient independence and facilitate communication between patients and their physicians. We report the development of a novel hand-held device, called Blue Box, capable of collecting and wirelessly transmitting key cardiac parameters derived from three integrated biosensors: 2 lead electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmography and bioelectrical impedance (bioimpedance). Blue Box measurements include time intervals between consecutive ECG R-waves (RR interval), time duration of the ECG complex formed by the Q, R and S waves (QRS duration), bioimpedance, heart rate and systolic time intervals. In this study, we recruited 24 healthy subjects to collect several parameters measured by Blue Box and assess their value in correlating with cardiac output measured with Echo-Doppler. Linear correlation between the heart rate measured with Blue Box and cardiac output from Echo-Doppler had a group average correlation coefficient of 0.80. We found that systolic time intervals did not improve the model significantly. However, STIs did inversely correlate with increasing workloads.

It's time to fear! Interval timing in odor fear conditioning in rats

PubMed Central

Shionoya, Kiseko; Hegoburu, Chloé; Brown, Bruce L.; Sullivan, Regina M.; Doyère, Valérie; Mouly, Anne-Marie

2013-01-01

Time perception is crucial to goal attainment in humans and other animals, and interval timing also guides fundamental animal behaviors. Accumulating evidence has made it clear that in associative learning, temporal relations between events are encoded, and a few studies suggest this temporal learning occurs very rapidly. Most of these studies, however, have used methodologies that do not permit investigating the emergence of this temporal learning. In the present study we monitored respiration, ultrasonic vocalization (USV) and freezing behavior in rats in order to perform fine-grain analysis of fear responses during odor fear conditioning. In this paradigm an initially neutral odor (the conditioned stimulus, CS) predicted the arrival of an aversive unconditioned stimulus (US, footshock) at a fixed 20-s time interval. We first investigated the development of a temporal pattern of responding related to CS-US interval duration. The data showed that during acquisition with odor-shock pairings, a temporal response pattern of respiration rate was observed. Changing the CS-US interval duration from 20-s to 30-s resulted in a shift of the temporal response pattern appropriate to the new duration thus demonstrating that the pattern reflected the learning of the CS-US interval. A temporal pattern was also observed during a retention test 24 h later for both respiration and freezing measures, suggesting that the animals had stored the interval duration in long-term memory. We then investigated the role of intra-amygdalar dopaminergic transmission in interval timing. For this purpose, the D1 dopaminergic receptors antagonist SCH23390 was infused in the basolateral amygdala before conditioning. This resulted in an alteration of timing behavior, as reflected in differential temporal patterns between groups observed in a 24 h retention test off drug. The present data suggest that D1 receptor dopaminergic transmission within the amygdala is involved in temporal processing. PMID:24098277

[Infiltration characteristics of soil water on loess slope land under intermittent and repetitive rainfall conditions].

PubMed

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming-An

2008-07-01

Based on the experiments of controlled intermittent and repetitive rainfall on slope land, the infiltration and distribution characteristics of soil water on loess slope land were studied. The results showed that under the condition of intermittent rainfall, the cumulative runoff during two rainfall events increased linearly with time, and the wetting front also increased with time. In the interval of the two rainfall events, the wetting front increased slowly, and the infiltration rate was smaller on steeper slope than on flat surface. During the second rainfall event, there was an obvious decreasing trend of infiltration rate with time. The cumulative infiltration on 15 degrees slope land was larger than that of 25 degrees slope land, being 178 mm and 88 mm, respectively. Under the condition of repetitive rainfall, the initial infiltration rate during each rainfall event was relatively large, and during the first rainfall, both the infiltration rate and the cumulative infiltration at various stages were larger than those during the other three rainfall events. However, after the first rainfall, there were no obvious differences in the infiltration rate among the next three rainfall events. The more the rainfall event, the deeper the wetting front advanced.

Rationale, design, and preliminary results of the Quebec Warfarin Cohort Study.

PubMed

Perreault, Sylvie; Shahabi, Payman; Côté, Robert; Dumas, Stéphanie; Rouleau-Mailloux, Étienne; Feroz Zada, Yassamin; Provost, Sylvie; Mongrain, Ian; Dorais, Marc; Huynh, Thao; Kouz, Simon; Diaz, Ariel; Blostein, Mark; de Denus, Simon; Turgeon, Jacques; Ginsberg, Jeffrey; Lelorier, Jacques; Lalonde, Lyne; Busque, Lambert; Kassis, Jeannine; Talajic, Mario; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Dubé, Marie-Pierre

2018-05-01

Over- and undercoagulation with warfarin are associated with hemorrhagic and thromboembolic events, respectively. Genetic and clinical factors affect warfarin response, and the causes of this variability remain unclear. We present descriptive statistics and test for predictors of poor anticoagulation control. The Quebec Warfarin Cohort (QWC) comprises 1059 new warfarin users, with prospective follow-up using telephone questionnaires every 3 months for 1 year, and using healthcare administrative databases (RAMQ and Med-Echo) for 5 years prior to cohort entry and up to 10 years following active patient participation. Genetic material was collected, and genotyping of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes was conducted. Measured outcomes included the percentage of time patients spent within therapeutic range, anticoagulation control, warfarin dose, bleeding, and thromboembolic events. We report baseline characteristics and outcomes after 1 year of follow-up. Poor anticoagulation control was defined as time in therapeutic range <60% in the 3- to 12-month interval. Participants had a mean age of 71 years, and 62% were men. The most common indication for warfarin was atrial fibrillation (87%). Mean time in therapeutic range was 56% (±25%) in the 3 months following warfarin initiation, and 70% (±21%) in the 3- to 12-month interval. During follow-up, the rate of stroke or systemic embolism was 1.8 events per 100 person-years; for major bleeding events, 3.3 events per 100 person-years. Independent predictors of poor anticoagulation control were chronic kidney disease, heart failure, dyslipidemia, and age. The QWC represents a good research cohort to investigate clinical and genetic factors in a warfarin-anticoagulated population. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determining Optimal Machine Replacement Events with Periodic Inspection Intervals

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

10 2.3 Remaining Useful Life Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.4...has some idea of the characteristic reliability inherent to that system. From assembly lines, to computers, to aircraft, quantities such as mean time...to failure, mean time to critical failure, and others have been quantified to a great extent. Further, any entity concerned with cost will also have an

Simultaneous determination of radionuclides separable into natural decay series by use of time-interval analysis.

PubMed

Hashimoto, Tetsuo; Sanada, Yukihisa; Uezu, Yasuhiro

2004-05-01

A delayed coincidence method, time-interval analysis (TIA), has been applied to successive alpha- alpha decay events on the millisecond time-scale. Such decay events are part of the (220)Rn-->(216)Po ( T(1/2) 145 ms) (Th-series) and (219)Rn-->(215)Po ( T(1/2) 1.78 ms) (Ac-series). By using TIA in addition to measurement of (226)Ra (U-series) from alpha-spectrometry by liquid scintillation counting (LSC), two natural decay series could be identified and separated. The TIA detection efficiency was improved by using the pulse-shape discrimination technique (PSD) to reject beta-pulses, by solvent extraction of Ra combined with simple chemical separation, and by purging the scintillation solution with dry N(2) gas. The U- and Th-series together with the Ac-series were determined, respectively, from alpha spectra and TIA carried out immediately after Ra-extraction. Using the (221)Fr-->(217)At ( T(1/2) 32.3 ms) decay process as a tracer, overall yields were estimated from application of TIA to the (225)Ra (Np-decay series) at the time of maximum growth. The present method has proven useful for simultaneous determination of three radioactive decay series in environmental samples.

Characteristic Lifelength of Coherent Structure in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.

2006-01-01

A characteristic lifelength is defined by which a Gaussian distribution is fit to data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure. The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tu-144. Lifelengths are estimated using the cross spectrum and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov's prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distribution, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data can be converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer.

Endogenous modulation of low frequency oscillations by temporal expectations

PubMed Central

Cravo, Andre M.; Rohenkohl, Gustavo; Wyart, Valentin

2011-01-01

Recent studies have associated increasing temporal expectations with synchronization of higher frequency oscillations and suppression of lower frequencies. In this experiment, we explore a proposal that low-frequency oscillations provide a mechanism for regulating temporal expectations. We used a speeded Go/No-go task and manipulated temporal expectations by changing the probability of target presentation after certain intervals. Across two conditions, the temporal conditional probability of target events differed substantially at the first of three possible intervals. We found that reactions times differed significantly at this first interval across conditions, decreasing with higher temporal expectations. Interestingly, the power of theta activity (4–8 Hz), distributed over central midline sites, also differed significantly across conditions at this first interval. Furthermore, we found a transient coupling between theta phase and beta power after the first interval in the condition with high temporal expectation for targets at this time point. Our results suggest that the adjustments in theta power and the phase-power coupling between theta and beta contribute to a central mechanism for controlling neural excitability according to temporal expectations. PMID:21900508

A networks-based discrete dynamic systems approach to volcanic seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suteanu, Mirela

2013-04-01

The detection and relevant description of pattern change concerning earthquake events is an important, but challenging task. In this paper, earthquake events related to volcanic activity are considered manifestations of a dynamic system evolving over time. The system dynamics is seen as a succession of events with point-like appearance both in time and in space. Each event is characterized by a position in three-dimensional space, a moment of occurrence, and an event size (magnitude). A weighted directed network is constructed to capture the effects of earthquakes on subsequent events. Each seismic event represents a node. Relations among events represent edges. Edge directions are given by the temporal succession of the events. Edges are also characterized by weights reflecting the strengths of the relation between the nodes. Weights are calculated as a function of (i) the time interval separating the two events, (ii) the spatial distance between the events, (iii) the magnitude of the earliest event among the two. Different ways of addressing weight components are explored, and their implications for the properties of the produced networks are analyzed. The resulting networks are then characterized in terms of degree- and weight distributions. Subsequently, the distribution of system transitions is determined for all the edges connecting related events in the network. Two- and three-dimensional diagrams are constructed to reflect transition distributions for each set of events. Networks are thus generated for successive temporal windows of different size, and the evolution of (a) network properties and (b) system transition distributions are followed over time and compared to the timeline of documented geologic processes. Applications concerning volcanic seismicity on the Big Island of Hawaii show that this approach is capable of revealing novel aspects of change occurring in the volcanic system on different scales in time and in space.

A Bayesian model for time-to-event data with informative censoring

PubMed Central

Kaciroti, Niko A.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.; Taylor, Jeremy M. G.; Julius, Stevo

2012-01-01

Randomized trials with dropouts or censored data and discrete time-to-event type outcomes are frequently analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier or product limit (PL) estimation method. However, the PL method assumes that the censoring mechanism is noninformative and when this assumption is violated, the inferences may not be valid. We propose an expanded PL method using a Bayesian framework to incorporate informative censoring mechanism and perform sensitivity analysis on estimates of the cumulative incidence curves. The expanded method uses a model, which can be viewed as a pattern mixture model, where odds for having an event during the follow-up interval (tk−1,tk], conditional on being at risk at tk−1, differ across the patterns of missing data. The sensitivity parameters relate the odds of an event, between subjects from a missing-data pattern with the observed subjects for each interval. The large number of the sensitivity parameters is reduced by considering them as random and assumed to follow a log-normal distribution with prespecified mean and variance. Then we vary the mean and variance to explore sensitivity of inferences. The missing at random (MAR) mechanism is a special case of the expanded model, thus allowing exploration of the sensitivity to inferences as departures from the inferences under the MAR assumption. The proposed approach is applied to data from the TRial Of Preventing HYpertension. PMID:22223746

Origination, diversity, and extinction metrics essential for analysis of mass biotic crisis events: An example from cretaceous ammonoidea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collom, Christopher J.

1988-01-01

Traditional mass extinction research has predominently concentrated on statistically demonstrating that mass extinction intervals are significantly above background levels of familial and generic extinction in terms of extinction percentage, extinction rate, and per-taxon extinction rate; mass extinction intervals occur on a set periodicity throughout geologic time, which is estimated to be some 30 MYR in duration. The published literature has given little emphasis to equally important considerations and metrics such as origination rate, standing diversity, and rate of generation of new taxa DURING mass extinction intervals. The extent to which a mass extinction affects the regional or global biota, must ultimately be gauged by taking into consideration both the number of taxa which become extinct at or near the event (stage) boundary, and the number of taxa which are either not affected at all by the extinction or actually evolved during or shortly before/after the extinction interval. These effects can be seen in Cretaceous Ammonoidea (at the genus level), and their combined usage allow better insight into paleobiological dynamics and responses to mass extinction and its affect on this dominant Molluscan organism.

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services.

PubMed

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria.

Variation of rain intensity and drop size distribution with General Weather Patterns (GWL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghada, Wael; Buras, Allan; Lüpke, Marvin; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

Short-duration rainfall extremes may cause flash floods in certain catchments (e.g. cities or fast responding watersheds) and pose a great risk to affected communities. In order to predict their occurrence under future climate change scenarios, their link to atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be well understood. We used a comprehensive data set of meteorological data (temperature, rain gauge precipitation) and precipitation spectra measured by a disdrometer (OTT PARSIVEL) between October 2008 and June 2010 at Freising, southern Germany. For the 21 months of the study period, we integrated the disdrometer spectra over intervals of 10 minutes to correspond to the temporal resolution of the weather station data and discarded measurements with air temperatures below 0°C. Daily General Weather Patterns ("Großwetterlagen", GWL) were downloaded from the website of the German Meteorological Service. Out of the 29 GWL, 14 were included in the analysis for which we had at least 12 rain events during our study period. For the definition of a rain event, we tested different lengths of minimum inter-event times and chose 30 min as a good compromise between number and length of resulting events; rain events started when more than 0.001 mm/h (sensitivity of the disdrometer) were recorded. The length of the rain events ranged between 10 min and 28 h (median 130 min) with the maximum rain intensity recorded being 134 mm/h on 24-07-2009. Seasonal differences were identified for rain event average intensities and maximum intensities per event. The influence of GWL on rain properties such as rain intensity and drop size distribution per time step and per event was investigated based on the above mentioned rain event definition. Pairwise Wilcoxon-tests revealed that higher rain intensity and larger drops were associated with the GWL "Low over the British Isles" (TB), whereas low rain intensities and less drops per interval were associated with the GWL "High over Central Europe" (HM). "Trough over Central Europe" (TRM) was linked to smaller drops and "High Scandinavia-Iceland, Trough C. Europe" (HNFZ) had fewer drops per time step when compared to other GWL types. We also investigated the intra-event behavior regarding fluctuations in rain intensity, rain drop counts, and drop size distribution with time. When combined with predictions of circulation patterns, our analysis provides a detailed insight into the characteristics of rain events under different future climate scenarios, but definitively an extended measurement period and more measurement locations are needed for validation.

Serial binary interval ratios improve rhythm reproduction.

PubMed

Wu, Xiang; Westanmo, Anders; Zhou, Liang; Pan, Junhao

2013-01-01

Musical rhythm perception is a natural human ability that involves complex cognitive processes. Rhythm refers to the organization of events in time, and musical rhythms have an underlying hierarchical metrical structure. The metrical structure induces the feeling of a beat and the extent to which a rhythm induces the feeling of a beat is referred to as its metrical strength. Binary ratios are the most frequent interval ratio in musical rhythms. Rhythms with hierarchical binary ratios are better discriminated and reproduced than rhythms with hierarchical non-binary ratios. However, it remains unclear whether a superiority of serial binary over non-binary ratios in rhythm perception and reproduction exists. In addition, how different types of serial ratios influence the metrical strength of rhythms remains to be elucidated. The present study investigated serial binary vs. non-binary ratios in a reproduction task. Rhythms formed with exclusively binary (1:2:4:8), non-binary integer (1:3:5:6), and non-integer (1:2.3:5.3:6.4) ratios were examined within a constant meter. The results showed that the 1:2:4:8 rhythm type was more accurately reproduced than the 1:3:5:6 and 1:2.3:5.3:6.4 rhythm types, and the 1:2.3:5.3:6.4 rhythm type was more accurately reproduced than the 1:3:5:6 rhythm type. Further analyses showed that reproduction performance was better predicted by the distribution pattern of event occurrences within an inter-beat interval, than by the coincidence of events with beats, or the magnitude and complexity of interval ratios. Whereas rhythm theories and empirical data emphasize the role of the coincidence of events with beats in determining metrical strength and predicting rhythm performance, the present results suggest that rhythm processing may be better understood when the distribution pattern of event occurrences is taken into account. These results provide new insights into the mechanisms underlining musical rhythm perception.

Serial binary interval ratios improve rhythm reproduction

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiang; Westanmo, Anders; Zhou, Liang; Pan, Junhao

2013-01-01

Musical rhythm perception is a natural human ability that involves complex cognitive processes. Rhythm refers to the organization of events in time, and musical rhythms have an underlying hierarchical metrical structure. The metrical structure induces the feeling of a beat and the extent to which a rhythm induces the feeling of a beat is referred to as its metrical strength. Binary ratios are the most frequent interval ratio in musical rhythms. Rhythms with hierarchical binary ratios are better discriminated and reproduced than rhythms with hierarchical non-binary ratios. However, it remains unclear whether a superiority of serial binary over non-binary ratios in rhythm perception and reproduction exists. In addition, how different types of serial ratios influence the metrical strength of rhythms remains to be elucidated. The present study investigated serial binary vs. non-binary ratios in a reproduction task. Rhythms formed with exclusively binary (1:2:4:8), non-binary integer (1:3:5:6), and non-integer (1:2.3:5.3:6.4) ratios were examined within a constant meter. The results showed that the 1:2:4:8 rhythm type was more accurately reproduced than the 1:3:5:6 and 1:2.3:5.3:6.4 rhythm types, and the 1:2.3:5.3:6.4 rhythm type was more accurately reproduced than the 1:3:5:6 rhythm type. Further analyses showed that reproduction performance was better predicted by the distribution pattern of event occurrences within an inter-beat interval, than by the coincidence of events with beats, or the magnitude and complexity of interval ratios. Whereas rhythm theories and empirical data emphasize the role of the coincidence of events with beats in determining metrical strength and predicting rhythm performance, the present results suggest that rhythm processing may be better understood when the distribution pattern of event occurrences is taken into account. These results provide new insights into the mechanisms underlining musical rhythm perception. PMID:23964258

Cinacalcet, Fibroblast Growth Factor-23, and Cardiovascular Disease in Hemodialysis: The Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) Trial.

PubMed

Moe, Sharon M; Chertow, Glenn M; Parfrey, Patrick S; Kubo, Yumi; Block, Geoffrey A; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Drüeke, Tilman B; Herzog, Charles A; London, Gerard M; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Wheeler, David C; Stolina, Maria; Dehmel, Bastian; Goodman, William G; Floege, Jürgen

2015-07-07

Patients with kidney disease have disordered bone and mineral metabolism, including elevated serum concentrations of fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23). These elevated concentrations are associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The objective was to determine the effects of the calcimimetic cinacalcet (versus placebo) on reducing serum FGF23 and whether changes in FGF23 are associated with death and cardiovascular events. This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial comparing cinacalcet to placebo in addition to conventional therapy (phosphate binders/vitamin D) in patients receiving hemodialysis with secondary hyperparathyroidism (intact parathyroid hormone ≥300 pg/mL). The primary study end point was time to death or a first nonfatal cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, hospitalization for angina, heart failure, or a peripheral vascular event). This analysis included 2985 patients (77% of randomized) with serum samples at baseline and 2602 patients (67%) with samples at both baseline and week 20. The results demonstrated that a significantly larger proportion of patients randomized to cinacalcet had ≥30% (68% versus 28%) reductions in FGF23. Among patients randomized to cinacalcet, a ≥30% reduction in FGF23 between baseline and week 20 was associated with a nominally significant reduction in the primary composite end point (relative hazard, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.98), cardiovascular mortality (relative hazard, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.87), sudden cardiac death (relative hazard, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86), and heart failure (relative hazard, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.99). Treatment with cinacalcet significantly lowers serum FGF23. Treatment-induced reductions in serum FGF23 are associated with lower rates of cardiovascular death and major cardiovascular events. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00345839. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Biostratigraphy and event stratigraphy in Iran around the Permian Triassic Boundary (PTB): Implications for the causes of the PTB biotic crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozur, H. W.

2007-01-01

The conodont succession and stratigraphic events around the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) have been investigated in detail in the open sea deposits of Iran (Abadeh and Shahreza in central Iran, and Jolfa and Zal in northwestern Iran). This investigation produced a very detailed conodont zonation from the Clarkina nodosa Zone up to the Isarcicella isarcica Zone. All significant events have been accurately located and dated within this zonation, and the duration of most of these conodont zones has been calculated by cross-correlation with continental lake deposits that display obvious Milankovitch cyclicity. The unusually short duration of all conodont zones in the interval from the C. nodosa up to the Hindeodus parvus Zone indicates that there was persistent high ecological stress during this time interval. Most of the conodont zones can be accurately correlated with South China. In the interval from the C. hauschkei Zone to the H. parvus Zone, even correlation with the Arctic is possible. Within three thin stratigraphic intervals, the Changhsingian (Dorashamian) warm water conodont fauna of the C. subcarinata lineage is replaced by a cool water fauna with small H. typicalis, rare Merrillina sp., and cool water Clarkina that have very widely spaced denticles. The uppermost cool water fauna horizon comprises the lower C. zhangi Zone and can be accurately correlated with continental beds by recognition of a short reversed magnetozone below the long uppermost Permian-lowermost Triassic normal magnetozone. In Iran and Transcaucasia, this short reversed zone comprises the upper C. changxingensis- C. deflecta Zone and most of the C. zhangi Zone. Its top lies 50 cm below the top of the Paratirolites Limestone (s.s.) in the Dorasham 2 section, which is at the beginning of the upper quarter of the C. zhangi Zone. In the Germanic Basin, this short palaeomagnetic interval comprises the lower and the basal part of the upper Fulda Formation. On the Russian Platform, the Nedubrovo Formation belongs to this short reversed magnetic interval. In its upper part (corresponding to the top of the lower C. zhangi Zone, see above) there is a fallout of mafic tuffs from the Siberian Trap event that originated about 3000 km away in eruption centres in the Siberian Tungusska Basin. In the Germanic Basin and in Iran, this horizon contains volcanic microsphaerules. Thus, a direct correlation can be made between the immigration of a cool water fauna into the tropical realm and an exceptionally strong interval of explosive activity during the Siberian Trap volcanic episode. These faunal changes are the same as those found at the base of the Boundary Clay, suggesting that a short cooling event at this horizon also was due to intense volcanism. Additional influence by a bolide impact cannot be excluded. Most of the events in the interval from the C. nodosa up to the I. isarcica Zone (upper Changhsingian to middle Gangetian) in the Iranian sections can be also observed in other marine sections (e.g., in Meishan) and even in continental sections of the Germanic Basin. Of particular significance is the fact that, in the investigated Iranian sections, the PTB lies either in red sediments or in light grey sediments (as in Abadeh) that contain an ostracod fauna indicative of highly oxygenated bottom waters. Therefore, anoxia cannot be the reason for the PTB extinction event in this region, even though anoxia does cause locally or regionally elsewhere an overprint on the extinction event.

Effects of food form and timing of ingestion on appetite and energy intake in lean and obese young adults

PubMed Central

RD, Mattes; WW, Campbell

2009-01-01

Objective Overweight and obesity have been attributed to increased eating frequency and the size of eating events. This study explored the influence of the timing of eating events and food form on appetite and daily energy intake. Design Cross-over, clinical intervention where participants consumed 300 kcal loads of a solid (apple), semi-solid (apple sauce) and beverage (apple juice) at a meal or 2 hours later (snack). Subjects Twenty normal weight (body mass index - BMI=22.6±1.8kg/m2) and 20 obese (BMI=32.3±1.5kg/m2) adults. There were 10 males and 10 females within each BMI group. Measurements On 6 occasions, participants reported to the laboratory at their customary midday meal time. Appetite questionnaires and motor skills tests were completed upon arrival and at 30min intervals for the 2 hours participants were in the laboratory and at 30min intervals for 4 hours after leaving the laboratory. Diet recalls were collected the next day. Data were collected between January of 2006 and June of 2007. Results Whether consumed with a meal or alone as a snack, the beverage elicited the weakest appetitive response, the solid food form elicited the strongest appetitive response and the semi-solid response was intermediate. The appetite shift was greatest for the solid food when consumed as a snack. The interval between test food consumption and the first spontaneous eating event >100 kcal was shortest for the beverage. No significant treatment effects were observed for test day energy intake or between lean and obese individuals. Conclusion Based on the appetitive findings, consumption of an energy-yielding beverage either with a meal or as a snack poses a greater risk for promoting positive energy than macronutrient-matched semi-solid or solid foods consumed at these times. PMID:19248858

Potential of turbidity monitoring for real time control of pollutant discharge in sewers during rainfall events.

PubMed

Lacour, C; Joannis, C; Gromaire, M-C; Chebbo, G

2009-01-01

Turbidity sensors can be used to continuously monitor the evolution of pollutant mass discharge. For two sites within the Paris combined sewer system, continuous turbidity, conductivity and flow data were recorded at one-minute time intervals over a one-year period. This paper is intended to highlight the variability in turbidity dynamics during wet weather. For each storm event, turbidity response aspects were analysed through different classifications. The correlation between classification and common parameters, such as the antecedent dry weather period, total event volume per impervious hectare and both the mean and maximum hydraulic flow for each event, was also studied. Moreover, the dynamics of flow and turbidity signals were compared at the event scale. No simple relation between turbidity responses, hydraulic flow dynamics and the chosen parameters was derived from this effort. Knowledge of turbidity dynamics could therefore potentially improve wet weather management, especially when using pollution-based real-time control (P-RTC) since turbidity contains information not included in hydraulic flow dynamics and not readily predictable from such dynamics.

Long-term Outcomes After Stepping Down Asthma Controller Medications: A Claims-Based, Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Rank, Matthew A; Johnson, Ryan; Branda, Megan; Herrin, Jeph; van Houten, Holly; Gionfriddo, Michael R; Shah, Nilay D

2015-09-01

Long-term outcomes after stepping down asthma medications are not well described. This study was a retrospective time-to-event analysis of individuals diagnosed with asthma who stepped down their asthma controller medications using a US claims database spanning 2000 to 2012. Four-month intervals were established and a step-down event was defined by a ≥ 50% decrease in days-supplied of controller medications from one interval to the next; this definition is inclusive of step-down that occurred without health-care provider guidance or as a consequence of a medication adherence lapse. Asthma stability in the period prior to step-down was defined by not having an asthma exacerbation (inpatient visit, ED visit, or dispensing of a systemic corticosteroid linked to an asthma visit) and having fewer than two rescue inhaler claims in a 4-month period. The primary outcome in the period following step-down was time-to-first asthma exacerbation. Thirty-two percent of the 26,292 included individuals had an asthma exacerbation in the 24-month period following step-down of asthma controller medication, though only 7% had an ED visit or hospitalization for asthma. The length of asthma stability prior to stepping down asthma medication was strongly associated with the risk of an asthma exacerbation in the subsequent 24-month period: < 4 months' stability, 44%; 4 to 7 months, 34%; 8 to 11 months, 30%; and ≥ 12 months, 21% (P < .001). In a large, claims-based, real-world study setting, 32% of individuals have an asthma exacerbation in the 2 years following a step-down event.

Epidemiology of Apnea and Bradycardia Resolution in Premature Infants

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, Lakshmi; Escobar, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is little epidemiologic evidence to assess the maturation of respiratory control in premature infants. OBJECTIVE: To measure the success rate or the percentage of infants who have no additional events of various apnea- or bradycardia-free intervals after correcting for gestational age, postmenstrual age of the last apnea or bradycardia event, and the severity of the event. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of infants born at 34 weeks' gestational age or earlier at 1 of 5 Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program hospitals between 1998 and 2001. The success rates of various apnea- or bradycardia-free intervals were calculated after stratifying according to gestational age, postmenstrual age of the last event, or event severity. RESULTS: Among the 1403 infants identified in this study, 84.2% did not have an apnea event and 78.5% did not have a bradycardia event after they were otherwise ready for discharge. For the entire cohort, a 95% success rate was statistically reached, with a 7-day apnea- or bradycardia-free interval. Infants with a gestational age of 30 weeks or less had a 5% to 15% lower success rate than infants with a gestational age more than 30 weeks for any given apnea- or bradycardia-free interval. The success rate was reduced by an additional 5% to 10% if the last apnea or bradycardia event occurred at a postmenstrual age of more than 36 weeks. Including only the most severe events slightly improved the success rate of a given interval. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of recurrence for apnea or bradycardia differs depending on the gestational age of the infant and the postmenstrual age of the last apnea or bradycardia event. PMID:21746726

Characteristics of extreme rainfall events in northwestern Peru during the 1982-1983 El Nino period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, R. A.; Tisnado, G. M.; Scofield, R. A.

1987-01-01

Histograms and contour maps describing the daily rainfall characteristics of a northwestern Peru area most severely affected by the 1982-1983 El Nino event were prepared from daily rainfall data obtained from 66 stations in this area during the El Nino event, and during the same 8-month intervals for the two years preceding and following the event. These data were analyzed, in conjunction with the anlysis of visible and IR satellite images, for cloud characteristics and structure. The results present a comparison of the rainfall characteristics as a function of elevation, geographic location, and the time of year for the El Nino and non-El Nino periods.

Can Natural Language Processing Improve the Efficiency of Vaccine Adverse Event Report Review?

PubMed

Baer, B; Nguyen, M; Woo, E J; Winiecki, S; Scott, J; Martin, D; Botsis, T; Ball, R

2016-01-01

Individual case review of spontaneous adverse event (AE) reports remains a cornerstone of medical product safety surveillance for industry and regulators. Previously we developed the Vaccine Adverse Event Text Miner (VaeTM) to offer automated information extraction and potentially accelerate the evaluation of large volumes of unstructured data and facilitate signal detection. To assess how the information extraction performed by VaeTM impacts the accuracy of a medical expert's review of the vaccine adverse event report. The "outcome of interest" (diagnosis, cause of death, second level diagnosis), "onset time," and "alternative explanations" (drug, medical and family history) for the adverse event were extracted from 1000 reports from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) using the VaeTM system. We compared the human interpretation, by medical experts, of the VaeTM extracted data with their interpretation of the traditional full text reports for these three variables. Two experienced clinicians alternately reviewed text miner output and full text. A third clinician scored the match rate using a predefined algorithm; the proportion of matches and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Review time per report was analyzed. Proportion of matches between the interpretation of the VaeTM extracted data, compared to the interpretation of the full text: 93% for outcome of interest (95% CI: 91-94%) and 78% for alternative explanation (95% CI: 75-81%). Extracted data on the time to onset was used in 14% of cases and was a match in 54% (95% CI: 46-63%) of those cases. When supported by structured time data from reports, the match for time to onset was 79% (95% CI: 76-81%). The extracted text averaged 136 (74%) fewer words, resulting in a mean reduction in review time of 50 (58%) seconds per report. Despite a 74% reduction in words, the clinical conclusion from VaeTM extracted data agreed with the full text in 93% and 78% of reports for the outcome of interest and alternative explanation, respectively. The limited amount of extracted time interval data indicates the need for further development of this feature. VaeTM may improve review efficiency, but further study is needed to determine if this level of agreement is sufficient for routine use.

Sequential parallel comparison design with binary and time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Silverman, Rachel Kloss; Ivanova, Anastasia; Fine, Jason

2018-04-30

Sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD) has been proposed to increase the likelihood of success of clinical trials especially trials with possibly high placebo effect. Sequential parallel comparison design is conducted with 2 stages. Participants are randomized between active therapy and placebo in stage 1. Then, stage 1 placebo nonresponders are rerandomized between active therapy and placebo. Data from the 2 stages are pooled to yield a single P value. We consider SPCD with binary and with time-to-event outcomes. For time-to-event outcomes, response is defined as a favorable event prior to the end of follow-up for a given stage of SPCD. We show that for these cases, the usual test statistics from stages 1 and 2 are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null hypothesis, leading to a straightforward combined testing procedure. In addition, we show that the estimators of the treatment effects from the 2 stages are asymptotically normal and uncorrelated under the null and alternative hypothesis, yielding confidence interval procedures with correct coverage. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the utility of the binary and time-to-event SPCD. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling volatility recurrence intervals in the Chinese commodity futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Weijie; Wang, Zhengxin; Guo, Haiming

2016-09-01

The law of extreme event occurrence attracts much research. The volatility recurrence intervals of Chinese commodity futures market prices are studied: the results show that the probability distributions of the scaled volatility recurrence intervals have a uniform scaling curve for different thresholds q. So we can deduce the probability distribution of extreme events from normal events. The tail of a scaling curve can be well fitted by a Weibull form, which is significance-tested by KS measures. Both short-term and long-term memories are present in the recurrence intervals with different thresholds q, which denotes that the recurrence intervals can be predicted. In addition, similar to volatility, volatility recurrence intervals also have clustering features. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we artificially synthesise ARMA, GARCH-class sequences similar to the original data, and find out the reason behind the clustering. The larger the parameter d of the FIGARCH model, the stronger the clustering effect is. Finally, we use the Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Conditional Duration model (FIACD) to analyse the recurrence interval characteristics. The results indicated that the FIACD model may provide a method to analyse volatility recurrence intervals.

The evidence for ocean acidification across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martindale, R. C.; Greene, S. E.; Ritterbush, K. A.; Bottjer, D. J.; Corsetti, F. A.; Berelson, W.

2012-12-01

The end-Triassic extinction is one of the "Big Five" mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic and until recently no consensus regarding the cause of this extinction has been established. Over the last decade, a robust temporal correlation between the eruption of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) and the end-Triassic extinction has been established. This correlation has led to the speculation that the release of CO2 and volatiles from the CAMP flood basalts induced a carbon cycle perturbation that acidified the Triassic oceans. It has also been suggested that an acidification event could have been the key mechanism that caused the end-Triassic marine ecosystem collapse. By combining observations and data from multiple fields such as volcanology, paleoceanography, chemostratigraphy, paleontology, and sedimentology, one can assess whether or not there was an ocean acidification event and to what degree it contributed to the extinction. The eruption of the CAMP flood basalts began at the very end of the Triassic period, albeit before the official Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary, (defined as the first Jurassic ammonite). CAMP is one of the largest continental flood basalts of the Phanerozoic (2-4 million cubic km) and was emplaced extremely rapidly (<1.6-2 Myr) in three to five pulses (possibly hundreds to tens of thousands of years). The massive injection of CAMP CO2 and other volcanic volatiles over such a short period of time would have caused a major change in ocean carbonate chemistry and, if short enough in duration, could have caused significant declines in oceanic carbonate saturation state (an ocean acidification event), possibly even undersaturating parts of the surface ocean with respect to aragonite and calcite. Although the change in saturation state of the ocean is extremely difficult to detect or quantify in the rock record, there is a distinct paucity of primary carbonate sediments in the T-J boundary interval, consistent with an ocean acidification event. Of the seventeen T-J boundary sections only three or four record potentially continuous carbonate deposition across the extinction interval, even so these carbonates are often marls and so may not be truly continuous. Finally, the end-Triassic extinction was particularly selective against pH-sensitive organisms (more so than perhaps any other extinction event). Not only was this extinction event one of the most severe extinctions of the 'Modern Fauna' in the geologic record, it also decimated reef ecosystems built by corals and hypercalcified sponges. End-Triassic extinction rates amongst acid-intolerant organisms and ecosystems are elevated and differ significantly from background extinction so that ocean acidification is a reasonable explanation for the interpreted extinction selectivity during this time interval. Given the volcanic, geochemical, sedimentological, and paleontological changes or events across the T-J interval it is likely that the end-Triassic extinction was heavily influenced by a CAMP-induced ocean acidification event. The dramatic taxonomic and ecosystem turnover at the T-J event implies that short-term acidification events may have long-term effects on ecosystems, a repercussion that has not previously been correlated with acidification events and has implications for future changes in ocean chemistry.

ePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Marci M.; Dowsett, Harry J.

2010-01-01

As part of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project, we present the ePRISM experiment designed I) to provide climate modelers with a reconstruction of an early Pliocene warm period that was warmer than the PRISM interval (similar to 3.3 to 3.0 Ma), yet still similar in many ways to modern conditions and 2) to provide an example of how best to integrate multiple-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from time series with varying degrees of temporal resolution and age control as we begin to build the next generation of PRISM, the PRISM4 reconstruction, spanning a constricted time interval. While it is possible to tie individual SST estimates to a single light (warm) oxygen isotope event, we find that the warm peak average of SST estimates over a narrowed time interval is preferential for paleoclimate reconstruction as it allows for the inclusion of more records of multiple paleotemperature proxies.

Palaeoclimate: ocean tides and Heinrich events.

PubMed

Arbic, Brian K; Macayeal, Douglas R; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Milne, Glenn A

2004-11-25

Climate varied enormously over the most recent ice age--for example, large pulses of ice-rafted debris, originating mainly from the Labrador Sea, were deposited into the North Atlantic at roughly 7,000-year intervals, with global climatic implications. Here we show that ocean tides within the Labrador Sea were exceptionally large over the period spanning these huge, abrupt ice movements, which are known as Heinrich events. We propose that tides played a catalytic role in liberating iceberg armadas during that time.

Unit Hydrograph Peaking Analysis for Goose Creek Watershed in Virginia: A Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-01

increment would not exceed 1.5 times the designed unit peak. The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of this UHPF range of the Goose...confidence interval precipitation depths to the watershed in addition to the 50% value. This study concluded that a design event with a return period greater...In this study , the physically based GSSHA model was deployed to obtain corresponding design discharge from probable rainfall events. 3.2.1 GSSHA

Coupled greenhouse warming and deep-sea acidification in the middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohaty, Steven M.; Zachos, James C.; Florindo, Fabio; Delaney, Margaret L.

2009-06-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an enigmatic warming event that represents an abrupt reversal in long-term cooling through the Eocene. In order to further assess the timing and nature of this event, we have assembled stable isotope and calcium carbonate concentration records from multiple Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program sites for the time interval between ˜43 and 38 Ma. Revised stratigraphy at several sites and compilation of δ18O records place peak warming during the MECO event at 40.0 Ma (Chron C18n.2n). The identification of the δ18O excursion at sites in different geographic regions indicates that the climatic effects of this event were globally extensive. The total duration of the MECO event is estimated at ˜500 ka, with peak warming lasting <100 ka. Assuming minimal glaciation in the late middle Eocene, ˜4°-6°C total warming of both surface and deep waters is estimated during the MECO at the study sites. The interval of peak warming at ˜40.0 Ma also coincided with a worldwide decline in carbonate accumulation at sites below 3000 m depth, reflecting a temporary shoaling of the calcite compensation depth. The synchroneity of deep-water acidification and globally extensive warming makes a persuasive argument that the MECO event was linked to a transient increase in atmospheric pCO2. The results of this study confirm previous reports of significant climatic instability during the middle Eocene. Furthermore, the direct link between warming and changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean provides strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations exerted a primary control on short-term climate variability during this critical period of Eocene climate evolution.

The Effect of Earthquakes on Episodic Tremor and Slip Events on the Southern Cascadia Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sainvil, A. K.; Schmidt, D. A.; Nuyen, C.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to explore how slow slip events on the southern Cascadia Subduction Zone respond to nearby, offshore earthquakes by examining GPS and tremor data. At intermediate depths on the plate interface ( 40 km), transient fault slip is observed in the form of Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events. These ETS events occur regularly (every 10 months), and have a longer duration than normal earthquakes. Researchers have been documenting slow slip events through data obtained by continuously running GPS stations in the Pacific Northwest. Some studies have proposed that pore fluid may play a role in these ETS events by lowering the effective stress on the fault. The interaction of earthquakes and ETS can provide constraints on the strength of the fault and the level of stress needed to alter ETS behavior. Earthquakes can trigger ETS events, but the connection between these events and earthquake activity is less understood. We originally hypothesized that ETS events would be affected by earthquakes in southern Cascadia, and could result in a shift in the recurrence interval of ETS events. ETS events were cataloged using GPS time series provided by PANGA, in conjunction with tremor positions, in Southern Cascadia for stations YBHB and DDSN from 1997 to 2017. We looked for evidence of change from three offshore earthquakes that occurred near the Mendocino Triple Junction with moment magnitudes of 7.2 in 2005, 6.5 in 2010, and 6.8 in 2014. Our results showed that the recurrence interval of ETS for stations YBHB and DDSN was not altered by the three earthquake events. Future is needed to explore whether this lack of interaction is explained by the non-optimal orientation of the receiver fault for the earthquake focal mechanisms.

An event-triggered control approach for the leader-tracking problem with heterogeneous agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Eloy; Cao, Yongcan; Casbeer, David W.

2018-05-01

This paper presents an event-triggered control and communication framework for the cooperative leader-tracking problem with communication constraints. Continuous communication among agents is not assumed in this work and decentralised event-based strategies are proposed for agents with heterogeneous linear dynamics. Also, the leader dynamics are unknown and only intermittent measurements of its states are obtained by a subset of the followers. The event-based method not only represents a way to restrict communication among agents, but it also provides a decentralised scheme for scheduling information broadcasts. Notably, each agent is able to determine its own broadcasting instants independently of any other agent in the network. In an extension, the case where transmission of information is affected by time-varying communication delays is addressed. Finally, positive lower-bounds on the inter-event time intervals are obtained in order to show that Zeno behaviour does not exist and, therefore, continuous exchange of information is never needed in this framework.

The reliability of manual reporting of clinical events in an anesthesia information management system (AIMS).

PubMed

Simpao, Allan F; Pruitt, Eric Y; Cook-Sather, Scott D; Gurnaney, Harshad G; Rehman, Mohamed A

2012-12-01

Manual incident reports significantly under-report adverse clinical events when compared with automated recordings of intraoperative data. Our goal was to determine the reliability of AIMS and CQI reports of adverse clinical events that had been witnessed and recorded by research assistants. The AIMS and CQI records of 995 patients aged 2-12 years were analyzed to determine if anesthesia providers had properly documented the emesis events that were observed and recorded by research assistants who were present in the operating room at the time of induction. Research assistants recorded eight cases of emesis during induction that were confirmed with the attending anesthesiologist at the time of induction. AIMS yielded a sensitivity of 38 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.5-75.5 %), while the sensitivity of CQI reporting was 13 % (95 % CI 0.3-52.7 %). The low sensitivities of the AIMS and CQI reports suggest that user-reported AIMS and CQI data do not reliably include significant clinical events.

The Event Related Brain Potential as an Index of Information Processing, Cognitive Activity, and Skill Acquisition: A Program of Basic Research.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-28

psychophysiological function in question. For example, for most measurements of the cardiovascular system, data are available only at each heart beat ...function of the duration of the charging period, *i . and hence will be proportional to the inter- beat interval (and inversely °°. • .*~* 14 information (0... beat interval. Thus, the output will lag the input. 2.3 Computer Access to Voltage x Time Functions 2.3.1 Digital Input and Analog-to-Digital Conversion

The cerebellum predicts the temporal consequences of observed motor acts.

PubMed

Avanzino, Laura; Bove, Marco; Pelosin, Elisa; Ogliastro, Carla; Lagravinese, Giovanna; Martino, Davide

2015-01-01

It is increasingly clear that we extract patterns of temporal regularity between events to optimize information processing. The ability to extract temporal patterns and regularity of events is referred as temporal expectation. Temporal expectation activates the same cerebral network usually engaged in action selection, comprising cerebellum. However, it is unclear whether the cerebellum is directly involved in temporal expectation, when timing information is processed to make predictions on the outcome of a motor act. Healthy volunteers received one session of either active (inhibitory, 1 Hz) or sham repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation covering the right lateral cerebellum prior the execution of a temporal expectation task. Subjects were asked to predict the end of a visually perceived human body motion (right hand handwriting) and of an inanimate object motion (a moving circle reaching a target). Videos representing movements were shown in full; the actual tasks consisted of watching the same videos, but interrupted after a variable interval from its onset by a dark interval of variable duration. During the 'dark' interval, subjects were asked to indicate when the movement represented in the video reached its end by clicking on the spacebar of the keyboard. Performance on the timing task was analyzed measuring the absolute value of timing error, the coefficient of variability and the percentage of anticipation responses. The active group exhibited greater absolute timing error compared with the sham group only in the human body motion task. Our findings suggest that the cerebellum is engaged in cognitive and perceptual domains that are strictly connected to motor control.

Multichannel Spectrometer of Time Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akindinova, E. V.; Babenko, A. G.; Vakhtel, V. M.; Evseev, N. A.; Rabotkin, V. A.; Kharitonova, D. D.

2015-06-01

For research and control of characteristics of radiation fluxes, radioactive sources in particular, for example, in paper [1], a spectrometer and methods of data measurement and processing based on the multichannel counter of time intervals of accident events appearance (impulses of particle detector) MC-2A (SPC "ASPECT") were created. The spectrometer has four independent channels of registration of time intervals of impulses appearance and correspondent amplitude and spectrometric channels for control along the energy spectra of the operation stationarity of paths of each of the channels from the detector to the amplifier. The registration of alpha-radiation is carried out by the semiconductor detectors with energy resolution of 16-30 keV. Using a spectrometer there have been taken measurements of oscillations of alpha-radiation 239-Pu flux intensity with a subsequent autocorrelative statistical analysis of the time series of readings.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

2015-12-01

Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.

A geo-computational algorithm for exploring the structure of diffusion progression in time and space.

PubMed

Chin, Wei-Chien-Benny; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Sabel, Clive E; Wang, I-Hsiang

2017-10-03

A diffusion process can be considered as the movement of linked events through space and time. Therefore, space-time locations of events are key to identify any diffusion process. However, previous clustering analysis methods have focused only on space-time proximity characteristics, neglecting the temporal lag of the movement of events. We argue that the temporal lag between events is a key to understand the process of diffusion movement. Using the temporal lag could help to clarify the types of close relationships. This study aims to develop a data exploration algorithm, namely the TrAcking Progression In Time And Space (TaPiTaS) algorithm, for understanding diffusion processes. Based on the spatial distance and temporal interval between cases, TaPiTaS detects sub-clusters, a group of events that have high probability of having common sources, identifies progression links, the relationships between sub-clusters, and tracks progression chains, the connected components of sub-clusters. Dengue Fever cases data was used as an illustrative case study. The location and temporal range of sub-clusters are presented, along with the progression links. TaPiTaS algorithm contributes a more detailed and in-depth understanding of the development of progression chains, namely the geographic diffusion process.

The risk of solar proton events to space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrell, M. O.

1972-01-01

The total dose in rads-tissue from solar protons was tabulated for weekly time intervals, and the number of weeks which gave a dose above 25 rads behind 10 g/sq cm of aluminum for the active 6 years of the 19th cycle were called dangerous or large event weeks. The number of such event weeks was found to be only 3 weeks for the past 20 years. Even though the chance for smaller events is examined, it was found that for any reasonable, high confidence level (95%), the smaller events could be ignored. Consequently, the total particle flux for the 19th cycle was divided by a factor of 3 and determined a single large event week. Using this spectrum, the tissue dose in rads is calculated at the center of an aluminum spherical shell.

Embryos of a moss can be hardened to desiccation tolerance: effects of rate of drying on the timeline of recovery and dehardening in Aloina ambigua (Pottiaceae).

PubMed

Brinda, John C; Stark, Lloyd R; Clark, Theresa A; Greenwood, Joshua L

2016-01-01

Embryonic sporophytes of the moss Aloina ambigua are inducibly desiccation tolerant (DT). Hardening to DT describes a condition of temporary tolerance to a rapid-drying event conferred by a previous slow-drying event. This paper aimed to determine whether sporophytic embryos of a moss can be hardened to DT, to assess how the rate of desiccation influences the post-rehydration dynamics of recovery, hardening and dehardening, and to determine the minimum rate of drying for embryos and shoots. Embryos were exposed to a range of drying rates using wetted filter paper in enclosed Petri dishes, monitoring relative humidity (RH) inside the dish and equilibrating tissues with 50% RH. Rehydrated embryos and shoots were subjected to a rapid-drying event at intervals, allowing assessments of recovery, hardening and dehardening times. The minimum rate of slow drying for embryonic survival was ∼3·5 h and for shoots ∼9 h. Hardening to DT was dependent upon the prior rate of drying. When the rate of drying was extended to 22 h, embryonic hardening was strong (>50% survival) with survival directly proportional to the post-rehydration interval preceding rapid drying. The recovery time (repair/reassembly) was so short as to be undetectable in embryos and shoots desiccated gradually; however, embryos dried in <3·5 h exhibited a lag time in development of ∼4 d, consistent with recovery. Dehardening resulted in embryos incapable of surviving a rapid-drying event. The ability of moss embryos to harden to DT and the influence of prior rate of drying on the dynamics of hardening are shown for the first time. The minimum rate of drying is introduced as a new metric for assessing ecological DT, defined as the minimum duration at sub-turgor during a drying event in which upon rehydration the plant organ of interest survives relatively undamaged from the desiccating event. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Embryos of a moss can be hardened to desiccation tolerance: effects of rate of drying on the timeline of recovery and dehardening in Aloina ambigua (Pottiaceae)

PubMed Central

Brinda, John C.; Stark, Lloyd R.; Clark, Theresa A.; Greenwood, Joshua L.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Embryonic sporophytes of the moss Aloina ambigua are inducibly desiccation tolerant (DT). Hardening to DT describes a condition of temporary tolerance to a rapid-drying event conferred by a previous slow-drying event. This paper aimed to determine whether sporophytic embryos of a moss can be hardened to DT, to assess how the rate of desiccation influences the post-rehydration dynamics of recovery, hardening and dehardening, and to determine the minimum rate of drying for embryos and shoots. Methods Embryos were exposed to a range of drying rates using wetted filter paper in enclosed Petri dishes, monitoring relative humidity (RH) inside the dish and equilibrating tissues with 50 % RH. Rehydrated embryos and shoots were subjected to a rapid-drying event at intervals, allowing assessments of recovery, hardening and dehardening times. Key Results The minimum rate of slow drying for embryonic survival was ∼3·5 h and for shoots ∼9 h. Hardening to DT was dependent upon the prior rate of drying. When the rate of drying was extended to 22 h, embryonic hardening was strong (>50 % survival) with survival directly proportional to the post-rehydration interval preceding rapid drying. The recovery time (repair/reassembly) was so short as to be undetectable in embryos and shoots desiccated gradually; however, embryos dried in <3·5 h exhibited a lag time in development of ∼4 d, consistent with recovery. Dehardening resulted in embryos incapable of surviving a rapid-drying event. Conclusions The ability of moss embryos to harden to DT and the influence of prior rate of drying on the dynamics of hardening are shown for the first time. The minimum rate of drying is introduced as a new metric for assessing ecological DT, defined as the minimum duration at sub-turgor during a drying event in which upon rehydration the plant organ of interest survives relatively undamaged from the desiccating event. PMID:26354931

Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Randolph T.; Goodwin, Laurel B.; Sharp, Warren D.; Mozley, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ˜550 ka—the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ˜430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO2, suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

Soil erosion under multiple time-varying rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heng, B. C. Peter; Barry, D. Andrew; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Sander, Graham C.

2010-05-01

Soil erosion is a function of many factors and process interactions. An erosion event produces changes in surface soil properties such as texture and hydraulic conductivity. These changes in turn alter the erosion response to subsequent events. Laboratory-scale soil erosion studies have typically focused on single independent rainfall events with constant rainfall intensities. This study investigates the effect of multiple time-varying rainfall events on soil erosion using the EPFL erosion flume. The rainfall simulator comprises ten Veejet nozzles mounted on oscillating bars 3 m above a 6 m × 2 m flume. Spray from the nozzles is applied onto the soil surface in sweeps; rainfall intensity is thus controlled by varying the sweeping frequency. Freshly-prepared soil with a uniform slope was subjected to five rainfall events at daily intervals. In each 3-h event, rainfall intensity was ramped up linearly to a maximum of 60 mm/h and then stepped down to zero. Runoff samples were collected and analysed for particle size distribution (PSD) as well as total sediment concentration. We investigate whether there is a hysteretic relationship between sediment concentration and discharge within each event and how this relationship changes from event to event. Trends in the PSD of the eroded sediment are discussed and correlated with changes in sediment concentration. Close-up imagery of the soil surface following each event highlight changes in surface soil structure with time. This study enhances our understanding of erosion processes in the field, with corresponding implications for soil erosion modelling.

Observations of the scatter-free solar-flare electrons in the energy range 20-1000 keV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, J. R.; Fisk, L. A.; Lin, R. P.

1971-01-01

Observations of the scatter-free electron events from solar active region McMath No. 8905 are presented. The measurements were made on Explorer 33 satellite. The data show that more than 80% of the electrons from these events undergo no or little scattering and that these electrons travel only approximately 1.5 a.u. between the sun and the earth. The duration of these events cannot be accounted fully by velocity dispersion alone. It is suggested that these electrons could be continuously injected into interplanetary medium for a time interval of approximately 2 to 3 minutes. Energy spectra of these electrons are discussed.

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services

PubMed Central

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria. PMID:27505155

Real-time hypoglycemia detection from continuous glucose monitoring data of subjects with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Jensen, Morten Hasselstrøm; Christensen, Toke Folke; Tarnow, Lise; Seto, Edmund; Dencker Johansen, Mette; Hejlesen, Ole Kristian

2013-07-01

Hypoglycemia is a potentially fatal condition. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has the potential to detect hypoglycemia in real time and thereby reduce time in hypoglycemia and avoid any further decline in blood glucose level. However, CGM is inaccurate and shows a substantial number of cases in which the hypoglycemic event is not detected by the CGM. The aim of this study was to develop a pattern classification model to optimize real-time hypoglycemia detection. Features such as time since last insulin injection and linear regression, kurtosis, and skewness of the CGM signal in different time intervals were extracted from data of 10 male subjects experiencing 17 insulin-induced hypoglycemic events in an experimental setting. Nondiscriminative features were eliminated with SEPCOR and forward selection. The feature combinations were used in a Support Vector Machine model and the performance assessed by sample-based sensitivity and specificity and event-based sensitivity and number of false-positives. The best model was composed by using seven features and was able to detect 17 of 17 hypoglycemic events with one false-positive compared with 12 of 17 hypoglycemic events with zero false-positives for the CGM alone. Lead-time was 14 min and 0 min for the model and the CGM alone, respectively. This optimized real-time hypoglycemia detection provides a unique approach for the diabetes patient to reduce time in hypoglycemia and learn about patterns in glucose excursions. Although these results are promising, the model needs to be validated on CGM data from patients with spontaneous hypoglycemic events.

A diary after dinner: How the time of event recording influences later accessibility of diary events.

PubMed

Szőllősi, Ágnes; Keresztes, Attila; Conway, Martin A; Racsmány, Mihály

2015-01-01

Recording the events of a day in a diary may help improve their later accessibility. An interesting question is whether improvements in long-term accessibility will be greater if the diary is completed at the end of the day, or after a period of sleep, the following morning. We investigated this question using an internet-based diary method. On each of five days, participants (n = 109) recorded autobiographical memories for that day or for the previous day. Recording took place either in the morning or in the evening. Following a 30-day retention interval, the diary events were free recalled. We found that participants who recorded their memories in the evening before sleep had best memory performance. These results suggest that the time of reactivation and recording of recent autobiographical events has a significant effect on the later accessibility of those diary events. We discuss our results in the light of related findings that show a beneficial effect of reduced interference during sleep on memory consolidation and reconsolidation.

Recent progresses in outcome-dependent sampling with failure time data.

PubMed

Ding, Jieli; Lu, Tsui-Shan; Cai, Jianwen; Zhou, Haibo

2017-01-01

An outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) design is a retrospective sampling scheme where one observes the primary exposure variables with a probability that depends on the observed value of the outcome variable. When the outcome of interest is failure time, the observed data are often censored. By allowing the selection of the supplemental samples depends on whether the event of interest happens or not and oversampling subjects from the most informative regions, ODS design for the time-to-event data can reduce the cost of the study and improve the efficiency. We review recent progresses and advances in research on ODS designs with failure time data. This includes researches on ODS related designs like case-cohort design, generalized case-cohort design, stratified case-cohort design, general failure-time ODS design, length-biased sampling design and interval sampling design.

Recent progresses in outcome-dependent sampling with failure time data

PubMed Central

Ding, Jieli; Lu, Tsui-Shan; Cai, Jianwen; Zhou, Haibo

2016-01-01

An outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) design is a retrospective sampling scheme where one observes the primary exposure variables with a probability that depends on the observed value of the outcome variable. When the outcome of interest is failure time, the observed data are often censored. By allowing the selection of the supplemental samples depends on whether the event of interest happens or not and oversampling subjects from the most informative regions, ODS design for the time-to-event data can reduce the cost of the study and improve the efficiency. We review recent progresses and advances in research on ODS designs with failure time data. This includes researches on ODS related designs like case–cohort design, generalized case–cohort design, stratified case–cohort design, general failure-time ODS design, length-biased sampling design and interval sampling design. PMID:26759313

The Blake geomagnetic excursion recorded in a radiometrically dated speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osete, María-Luisa; Martín-Chivelet, Javier; Rossi, Carlos; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Egli, Ramon; Muñoz-García, M. Belén; Wang, Xianfeng; Pavón-Carrasco, F. Javier; Heller, Friedrich

2012-11-01

One of the most important developments in geomagnetism has been the recognition of polarity excursions of the Earth's magnetic field. Accurate timing of the excursions is a key point for understanding the geodynamo process and for magnetostratigraphic correlation. One of the best-known excursions is the Blake geomagnetic episode, which occurred during marine isotope stage MIS 5, but its morphology and age remain controversial. Here we show, for the first time, the Blake excursion recorded in a stalagmite which was dated using the uranium-series disequilibrium techniques. The characteristic remanent magnetisation is carried by fine-grained magnetite. The event is documented by two reversed intervals (B1 and B2). The age of the event is estimated to be between 116.5±0.7 kyr BP and 112.0±1.9 kyr BP, slightly younger (∼3-4 kyr) than recent estimations from sedimentary records dated by astronomical tuning. Low values of relative palaeointensity during the Blake episode are estimated, but a relative maximum in the palaeofield intensity coeval with the complete reversal during the B2 interval was observed. Duration of the Blake geomagnetic excursion is 4.5 kyr, two times lower than single excursions and slightly higher than the estimated diffusion time for the inner core (∼3 kyr).

Life Events: A Complex Role In The Timing Of Suicidal Behavior Among Depressed Patients

PubMed Central

Oquendo, Maria A.; Perez-Rodriguez, M. Mercedes; Poh, Ernest; Sullivan, Gregory; Burke, Ainsley K.; Sublette, M. Elizabeth; Mann, J. John; Galfalvy, Hanga

2013-01-01

Suicidal behavior is often conceptualized as a response to overwhelming stress. Our model posits that given a propensity for acting on suicidal urges, stressors such as life events or major depressive episodes (MDEs) determine the timing of suicidal acts. Depressed patients (n=415) were assessed prospectively for suicide attempts and suicide, life events and MDE over 2 years. Longitudinal data was divided into 1-month intervals characterized by MDE (yes/no), suicidal behavior (yes/no), and life event scores. Marginal logistic regression models were fit, with suicidal behavior as the response variable and MDE and life event score in either the same or previous month, respectively, as time-varying covariates. Among 7843 person-months, 33% had MDE and 73% had life events. MDE increased risk for suicidal behavior (OR=4.83, p< 0.0001). Life event scores were unrelated to the timing of suicidal behavior (OR=1.06 per 100 point increase, p=0.32), even during an MDE (OR=1.12, p=0.15). However, among those without Borderline Personality Disorders (BPD), both health and work related life events were key precipitants, as was recurrent MDE, with a 13-fold effect. The relationship of life events to suicidal behavior among those with BPD was more complex. Recurrent MDE was a robust precipitant for suicidal behavior, regardless of BPD comorbidity. The specific nature of life events is key to understanding the timing of suicidal behavior. Given unanticipated results regarding the role of BPD and study limitations, these findings require replication. Of note, that MDE, a treatable risk factor, strongly predicts suicidal behaviors is cause for hope. PMID:24126928

Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segou, Margarita

2016-01-01

I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth <15 km) with magnitude M ≥ 3.0 for the time period between 1995 and 2013. I compare two short-term earthquake clustering models, based on epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately predict the temporal evolution of seismicity during swarms. Furthermore, stochastic reconstruction of seismicity makes possible the identification of different triggering processes between specific seismic crises (2001, 2003-04, 2006-07) and the 1995 aftershock sequence. I find that: (1) seismic events with M ≥ 5.0 are not a part of a preceding earthquake cascade, since they are characterized by high probability being a background event (average Pback > 0.8) and (2) triggered seismicity within swarms is characterized by lower event productivity when compared with the corresponding value during aftershock sequences. I conclude that physics-based models contribute on the determination of the `new-normal' seismicity rate at longer time intervals and that their joint implementation with statistical models is beneficial for future operational forecast systems.

The Effects of Numerical Magnitude, Size, and Color Saturation on Perceived Interval Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alards-Tomalin, Doug; Leboe-McGowan, Jason P.; Shaw, Joshua D. M.; Leboe-McGowan, Launa C.

2014-01-01

The relative magnitude (or intensity) of an event can have direct implications on timing estimation. Previous studies have found that greater magnitude stimuli are often reported as longer in duration than lesser magnitudes, including Arabic digits (Xuan, Zhang, He, & Chen, 2007). One explanation for these findings is that different…

The Cutaneous Rabbit Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flach, Rudiger; Haggard, Patrick

2006-01-01

In the cutaneous rabbit effect (CRE), a tactile event (so-called attractee tap) is mislocalized toward an adjacent attractor tap. The effect depends on the time interval between the taps. The authors delivered sequences of taps to the forearm and asked participants to report the location of one of the taps. The authors replicated the original CRE…

The Amygdalo-Nigrostriatal Network Is Critical for an Optimal Temporal Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Es-seddiqi, Mouna; El Massioui, Nicole; Samson, Nathalie; Brown, Bruce L.; Doyère, Valérie

2016-01-01

The amygdalo-nigrostriatal (ANS) network plays an essential role in enhanced attention to significant events. Interval timing requires attention to temporal cues. We assessed rats having a disconnected ANS network, due to contralateral lesions of the medial central nucleus of the amygdala (CEm) and dopaminergic afferents to the lateral striatum,…

Did intense volcanism trigger the first Late Ordovician icehouse?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buggisch, Werner; Joachimski, Michael M.; Lehnert, Oliver; Bergstrom, S. M.; Repetski, John E.

2009-01-01

Oxygen isotopes measured on Late Ordovician conodonts from Minnesota and Kentucky (United States) were studied to reconstruct the paleotemperature history during late Sandbian to Katian (Mohawkian–Cincinnatian) time. This time interval was characterized by intense volcanism, as shown by the prominent Deicke, Millbrig, and other K-bentonite beds. A prominent carbon isotope excursion (Guttenberg δ13C excursion, GICE) postdates the Millbrig volcanic eruptions, and has been interpreted to reflect a drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climatic cooling. The oxygen isotope record in conodont apatite contradicts this earlier interpretation. An increase in δ18O of 1.5‰ (Vienna standard mean ocean water) just above the Deicke K-bentonite suggests an abrupt and short-lived cooling that possibly initiated a first short-term glacial episode well before the major Hirnantian glaciation. The decrease in δ18O immediately after the mega-eruptions indicates warming before the GICE, and no cooling is shown in the GICE interval. The coincidence of the Deicke mega-eruption with a cooling event suggests that this major volcanic event had a profound effect on Late Ordovician (late Mohawkian) climate.

Did intense volcanism trigger the first Late Ordovician icehouse?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buggisch, Werner; Joachimski, Michael M.; Lehnert, Oliver; Bergström, Stig M.; Repetski, John E.; Webers, Gerald F.

2010-01-01

Oxygen isotopes measured on Late Ordovician conodonts from Minnesota and Kentucky (United States) were studied to reconstruct the paleotemperature history during late Sandbian to Katian (Mohawkian–Cincinnatian) time. This time interval was characterized by intense volcanism, as shown by the prominent Deicke, Millbrig, and other K-bentonite beds. A prominent carbon isotope excursion (Guttenberg δ13C excursion, GICE) postdates the Millbrig volcanic eruptions, and has been interpreted to reflect a drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climatic cooling. The oxygen isotope record in conodont apatite contradicts this earlier interpretation. An increase in δ18O of 1.5‰ (Vienna standard mean ocean water) just above the Deicke K-bentonite suggests an abrupt and short-lived cooling that possibly initiated a first short-term glacial episode well before the major Hirnantian glaciation. The decrease in δ18O immediately after the mega-eruptions indicates warming before the GICE, and no cooling is shown in the GICE interval. The coincidence of the Deicke mega-eruption with a cooling event suggests that this major volcanic event had a profound effect on Late Ordovician (late Mohawkian) climate.

Active faulting in the central Betic Cordillera (Spain): Palaeoseismological constraint of the surface-rupturing history of the Baza Fault (Central Betic Cordillera, Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, J.; Martin-Rojas, I.; Medina-Cascales, I.; García-Tortosa, F. J.; Alfaro, P.; Insua-Arévalo, J. M.

2018-06-01

This paper on the Baza Fault provides the first palaeoseismic data from trenches in the central sector of the Betic Cordillera (S Spain), one of the most tectonically active areas of the Iberian Peninsula. With the palaeoseismological data we constructed time-stratigraphic OxCal models that yield probability density functions (PDFs) of individual palaeoseismic event timing. We analysed PDF overlap to quantitatively correlate the walls and site events into a single earthquake chronology. We assembled a surface-rupturing history of the Baza Fault for the last ca. 45,000 years. We postulated six alternative surface rupturing histories including 8-9 fault-wide earthquakes. We calculated fault-wide earthquake recurrence intervals using Monte Carlo. This analysis yielded a 4750-5150 yr recurrence interval. Finally, compared our results with the results from empirical relationships. Our results will provide a basis for future analyses of more of other active normal faults in this region. Moreover, our results will be essential for improving earthquake-probability assessments in Spain, where palaeoseismic data are scarce.

The Amount of Time Dilation for Visual Flickers Corresponds to the Amount of Neural Entrainments Measured by EEG.

PubMed

Hashimoto, Yuki; Yotsumoto, Yuko

2018-01-01

The neural basis of time perception has long attracted the interests of researchers. Recently, a conceptual model consisting of neural oscillators was proposed and validated by behavioral experiments that measured the dilated duration in perception of a flickering stimulus (Hashimoto and Yotsumoto, 2015). The model proposed that flickering stimuli cause neural entrainment of oscillators, resulting in dilated time perception. In this study, we examined the oscillator-based model of time perception, by collecting electroencephalography (EEG) data during an interval-timing task. Initially, subjects observed a stimulus, either flickering at 10-Hz or constantly illuminated. The subjects then reproduced the duration of the stimulus by pressing a button. As reported in previous studies, the subjects reproduced 1.22 times longer durations for flickering stimuli than for continuously illuminated stimuli. The event-related potential (ERP) during the observation of a flicker oscillated at 10 Hz, reflecting the 10-Hz neural activity phase-locked to the flicker. Importantly, the longer reproduced duration was associated with a larger amplitude of the 10-Hz ERP component during the inter-stimulus interval, as well as during the presentation of the flicker. The correlation between the reproduced duration and the 10-Hz oscillation during the inter-stimulus interval suggested that the flicker-induced neural entrainment affected time dilation. While the 10-Hz flickering stimuli induced phase-locked entrainments at 10 Hz, we also observed event-related desynchronizations of spontaneous neural oscillations in the alpha-frequency range. These could be attributed to the activation of excitatory neurons while observing the flicker stimuli. In addition, neural activity at approximately the alpha frequency increased during the reproduction phase, indicating that flicker-induced neural entrainment persisted even after the offset of the flicker. In summary, our results suggest that the duration perception is mediated by neural oscillations, and that time dilation induced by flickering visual stimuli can be attributed to neural entrainment.

Middle school students' understanding of time: Implications for the National Science Education Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinemann, Deborah Jean

2000-10-01

Measures of time are essential to human life, especially in the Western world. Human understanding of time develops from the preschool stages of using "before" and "after" to an adult understanding and appreciation of time. Previous researchers (for example, Piaget, Friedman) have investigated and described stages of time development. Time, as it was investigated here, can be classified as conventional, logical or experiential. Conventional time is the ordered representation of time; the days of the week, the months of the year, or clock time: seconds and hours. Logical time is the deduction of duration based on regular events; for example, calculating the passage of time based on two separate events. Experiential time involves the duration of events and estimating intervals. With the recent production of the National Science Education Standards (NSES), many schools are aligning their science curriculum with the NSES. Time appears both implicitly and explicitly in the NSES. Do Middle School students possess the understanding of time necessary to meet the recommendations of the NSES? An interview protocol of four sessions was developed to investigate middle school students understanding of time. The four sessions included: building and testing water clocks; an interview about water clocks and time intervals; a laserdisc presentation about relative time spans; and a mind mapping session. Students were also given the GALT test of Logical Thinking. The subjects of the study were interviewed; eleven eighth grade students and thirteen sixth grade students. The data was transcribed and coded, and a rubric was developed to evaluate students based on their responses to the four sessions. The Time Analysis Rubric is a grid of the types of time: conventional, logical and experiential time versus the degree of understanding of time. Student results were assigned to levels of understanding based on the Time Analysis Rubric. There was a relationship (although not significant) between the students' GALT score and the Time Analysis Rubric results. There was no difference in Time Analysis levels between sixth and eighth grade students. On the basis of this study, Middle School students' level of understanding of time appears to be sufficient to master the requirements of the NSES.

Rainfall Stochastic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series were recorded every ten minutes and hourly, aggregated. Preliminary results show adequate simulation of the main features of rain. Main variables are well simulated for time series of ten minutes, also over one hour precipitation time series, which are those that generate higher rainfall hydrologic design. For coarse scales, less than one hour, rainfall durations are not appropriate under the simulation. A hypothesis may be an excessive number of simulated events, which causes further fragmentation of storms, resulting in an excess of rain "short" (less than 1 hour), and therefore also among rain events, compared with the ones that occur in the actual series.

Holocene turbidite and onshore paleoseismic record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: relevance for the Sumatra 2004 Great Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez-Pastor, J.; Nelson, C. H.; Goldfinger, C.; Johnson, J.

2005-05-01

Marine turbidite stratigraphy, onshore paleoseismic records of tsunami sand beds and co-seismic subsidence (Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Kelsey et al., 2002; Witter et al., 2003) and tsunami sands of Japan (Satake et al., 1996) all show evidence for great earthquakes (M ~ 9) on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. When a great earthquake shakes 1000 kilometers of the Cascadia margin, sediment failures occur in all tributary canyons and resulting turbidity currents travel down the canyon systems and deposit synchronous turbidites in abyssal seafloor channels. These turbidite records provide a deepwater paleoseismic record of great earthquakes. An onshore paleoseismic record develops from rapid coseismic subsidence resulting in buried marshes and drowned forests, and subsequent tsunami sand layer deposition. The Cascadia Basin provides the longest paleoseismic record of great earthquakes that is presently available for a subduction zone. A total of 17 synchronous turbidites have deposited along ~700 km of the Cascadia margin during the Holocene time of ~10,000 cal yr. Because the youngest paleoseismic event in all turbidite and onshore records is 300 AD, the average recurrence interval of Great Earthquakes is ~ 600 yr. At least 6 smaller events have also ruptured shorter margin segments. Linkage of the rupture length of these events comes from relative dating tools such as the "confluence test" of Adams (1990), radiocarbon ages of onshore and offshore events and physical property correlation of individual event "signatures". We use both 14C ages and analysis of hemipelagic sediment thickness between turbidites (H), where H/sedimentation rate = time between turbidite events to develop two recurrence histories. Utilizing the most reliable 14C and hemipelagic data sets from turbidites for the past ~ 5000 yr, the minimum recurrence time is ~ 300 yr and maximum time is ~ 1300 yr. There also is a recurrence pattern through the entire Holocene that consists of a long time interval followed by 2 to 5 short intervals that is apparent as well in the land records. This pattern has repeated five times in the Holocene. Both onshore paleoseismic records and turbidite synchroneity for hundreds of kilometers, suggest that the Holocene turbidite record of the Cascadia Subduction Zone is caused dominantly by triggering of great earthquakes similar in rupture length to the Sumatra 2004 earthquake. The recent Sumatra subduction zone great earthquake of 2004 and the 1700 AD Cascadia tsunami sand of 3m height preserved in Japan (Satake et al., 1996) show that ocean-basin wide tsunami deposits result from these great earthquakes, which rupture the seafloor for hundreds of kilometers. Cascadia and Sumatra share many geological and physiographic similarities that favor the deposition of turbidites from great earthquakes, and tend to filter non earthquake turbidites from the record. Thus the paleoseismic methods developed in Cascadia could be applied to the Sumatran Subduction Zone and we expect that the turbidite record would yield a similar record ~10,000 yr in length. In Sumatra, the dearth of such records led to the lack of widespread recognition of the hazard, particularly from the northern Sumatra and Andaman-Nicobar region where geodetic data suggested weak plate locking. Evidence of a tsunami similar to the 2004 event from satellite imagery suggests the previous event was in the recent past.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

Bursts of Vertex Activation and Epidemics in Evolving Networks

PubMed Central

Rocha, Luis E. C.; Blondel, Vincent D.

2013-01-01

The dynamic nature of contact patterns creates diverse temporal structures. In particular, empirical studies have shown that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event time intervals, meaning that periods of high activity are followed by long periods of inactivity. To investigate the impact of these heterogeneities in the spread of infection from a theoretical perspective, we propose a stochastic model to generate temporal networks where vertices make instantaneous contacts following heterogeneous inter-event intervals, and may leave and enter the system. We study how these properties affect the prevalence of an infection and estimate , the number of secondary infections of an infectious individual in a completely susceptible population, by modeling simulated infections (SI and SIR) that co-evolve with the network structure. We find that heterogeneous contact patterns cause earlier and larger epidemics in the SIR model in comparison to homogeneous scenarios for a vast range of parameter values, while smaller epidemics may happen in some combinations of parameters. In the case of SI and heterogeneous patterns, the epidemics develop faster in the earlier stages followed by a slowdown in the asymptotic limit. For increasing vertex turnover rates, heterogeneous patterns generally cause higher prevalence in comparison to homogeneous scenarios with the same average inter-event interval. We find that is generally higher for heterogeneous patterns, except for sufficiently large infection duration and transmission probability. PMID:23555211

Dating Informed Correlations and Large Earthquake Recurrence at the Hokuri Creek Paleoseismic Site, Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasi, G. P.; Clark, K.; Berryman, K. R.; Cochran, U. A.; Prior, C.

2010-12-01

The Hokuri Creek paleoseismic site on the Alpine fault in south Westland, New Zealand has yielded a remarkable history of fault activity spanning the past ~7000 years. Evidence for earthquake occurrence and timing has been developed primarily from natural exposures created after a geologically major incision event a few hundred years ago. Prior to this event, the elevation of the spillway of Hokuri Creek into its previous drainage was controlled by NE translation of a shutter ridge during earthquakes. Each event increased the base level for sediment accumulation upstream by decimetres to perhaps a metre. Each increase in base level is associated with a period of accumulation principally of clean fine silts and rock flour. With infilling and time, the wetlands reestablish and sedimentation transitions to a slower and more organic-rich phase (Clark et al., this meeting). At least 18 such cycles have been identified at the site. Carbonaceous material is abundant in almost all layers. Much of the dating is done on macrofossils - individual beech tree leaves, reeds, and similar fragile features. Reworking is considered unlikely due to the fragility of the samples. All dates were developed by the Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory of the National Isotope Centre at GNS. Delta 13C was measured and used to correct for fractionation. Dating earthquakes at the Hokuri Creek site presents some special challenges. Individual stratigraphic sections around the site expose different time intervals. The Main Section series provides the most complete single section, with over 5000 years of represented. Nearby auxiliary exposures cover nearly 1500 years more. Date series from individual exposures tend to be internally very consistent with stratigraphic ordering, but by virtue of their spatial separation, correlations between sections are more difficult. We find, however, that the distinctive layering and the typical 2-4 centuries between primary silt layers provides a way to cross-correlate sections at the site. Within a series of dates from a section, ordering with intrinsic precision of the dates indicates an uncertainty at event horizons on the order of 50 years, while the transitions from peat to silt indicating an earthquake are separated by several times this amount. The effect is to create a stair-stepping date sequence that often allows us to link sections and improve dating resolution in both sections. The combined section provides clear evidence for at least 18 earthquake-induced cycles. Event recurrence would be about 390 years in a simple average. Internal evidence and close examination of date sequences provide preliminary indications of as many as 22 earthquakes could be represented at Hokuri Creek, and a recurrence interval of ~320 years. Both sequences indicate a middle sequence from 3800 to 1000 BC in which recurrence intervals are resolvably longer than average. Variability in recurrence is relatively small - relatively few intervals are even >1.5x the average. This indicates that large earthquakes on the Alpine Fault of South Island, New Zealand are best fit by a time-predictable model.

Ecological momentary assessment of stressful events and negative affect in bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Crosby, Ross D; Engel, Scott G; Lavender, Jason M; Peterson, Carol B; Crow, Scott J; Cao, Li; Mitchell, James E

2014-02-01

Negative affect precedes binge eating and purging in bulimia nervosa (BN), but little is known about factors that precipitate negative affect in relation to these behaviors. We aimed to assess the temporal relation among stressful events, negative affect, and bulimic events in the natural environment using ecological momentary assessment. A total of 133 women with current BN recorded their mood, eating behavior, and the occurrence of stressful events every day for 2 weeks. Multilevel structural equation mediation models evaluated the relations among Time 1 stress measures (i.e., interpersonal stressors, work/environment stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal), Time 2 negative affect, and Time 2 binge eating and purging, controlling for Time 1 negative affect. Increases in negative affect from Time 1 to Time 2 significantly mediated the relations between Time 1 interpersonal stressors, work/environment stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal and Time 2 binge eating and purging. When modeled simultaneously, confidence intervals for interpersonal stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal did not overlap, suggesting that each had a distinct impact on negative affect in relation to binge eating and purging. Our findings indicate that stress precedes the occurrence of bulimic behaviors and that increases in negative affect following stressful events mediate this relation. Results suggest that stress and subsequent negative affect may function as maintenance factors for bulimic behaviors and should be targeted in treatment. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Ecological momentary assessment of stressful events and negative affect in bulimia nervosa

PubMed Central

Goldschmidt, Andrea B.; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Crosby, Ross D.; Engel, Scott G.; Lavender, Jason M.; Peterson, Carol B.; Crow, Scott J.; Cao, Li; Mitchell, James E.

2014-01-01

Objective Negative affect precedes binge eating and purging in bulimia nervosa (BN), but little is known about factors that precipitate negative affect in relation to these behaviors. We aimed to assess the temporal relation among stressful events, negative affect, and bulimic events in the natural environment using ecological momentary assessment. Method A total of 133 women with current BN recorded their mood, eating behavior, and the occurrence of stressful events every day for two weeks. Multi-level structural equation mediation models evaluated the relations among Time 1 stress measures (i.e., interpersonal stressors, work/environment stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal), Time 2 negative affect, and Time 2 binge eating and purging, controlling for Time 1 negative affect. Results Increases in negative affect from Time 1 to Time 2 significantly mediated the relations between Time 1 interpersonal stressors, work/environment stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal, and Time 2 binge eating and purging. When modeled simultaneously, confidence intervals for interpersonal stressors, general daily hassles, and stress appraisal did not overlap, suggesting that each had a distinct impact on negative affect in relation to binge eating or purging. Conclusions Our findings indicate that stress precedes the occurrence of bulimic behaviors and that increases in negative affect following stressful events mediate this relation. Results suggest that stress and subsequent negative affect may function as maintenance factors for bulimic behaviors and should be targeted in treatment. PMID:24219182

Characteristics of gas hydrate-bearing sediments of the northern South China Sea: insight into past hydrate episodic dissociations and intensities of seepage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, F.; Su, X.; Zhou, Y.; Zhang, G.; Zhuang, C.; Lu, H.

2016-12-01

In 2013 the second China's major gas hydrate expedition, GMGS2, cored and recovered abundant gas hydrates at five sites, which were located in the South China Sea.Site GMGS08 (95m long) contained two gas hydrate intervals and five authigenic carbonate intervals. We analyzed carbon and oxygen isotopes of authigenic carbonates and foraminifera shells in sediments recovered at this site, in order to understanding of features of hydrate-bearing sediments and timing of gas hydrate dissociation and methane seepage at this site. An age of younger than 0.27 Ma was estimated for the 95 m sedimentary sequences at Site GMGS08. A detailed age model was further established by employing of U/Th and AMS14C dating of authigenic carbonates and seep bivalve fragments. These carbonates are featured by 13C-depleted (with a range from -38.9‰ to 56.7‰ δ13C) and positive δ18O (from 2.94‰ to 5.66‰ δ18O) values. A further analysis indicated the formation of carbonates were correlated to methane seepages derived from gas hydrate dissociation. Subsequently, these five authigenic carbonates intervals were seen as five hydrate episodic dissociation events since last 0.27Ma at this site. The most significant event during the period of 0.11 Ma to 0.13 Ma were account for the formation of thick authigenic carbonate (with the lowest -56.8‰ δ13C value) platform on paleo-seafloor at this site. The upmost authigenic carbonates interval is just overlying on the top of the upper gas hydrate occurrence zone, and it represents the latest methane seepage event with an age of 26ka to 36ka. Well correlated to these five events, it existed five intervals with strongly 13C-depleted carbon (-15.85‰ PDB) of foraminifera shells both from benthic and planktonic. The anomalous δ13C depletion records of planktonic G. ruber shells should be caused by formation of secondary authigenic carbonates on the shells, which were derived from the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). The analyses on carbonate samples indicated varied intensity of methane flux in each event. The most intensive methane venting flux occurred during the event of 0.11 Ma to 0.13 Ma, which is correlated to a warm and relative high sea level period of MIS stage 5. These records obtained at Site GMGS08 implied much complicated causes for formation of authigenic carbonates and gas hydrate episodic dissociation.

Deriving Lifetime Maps in the Time/Frequency Domain of Coherent Structures in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Dan

2008-01-01

The lifetimes of coherent structures are derived from data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure at high Reynolds number (> 10(exp 8)). The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tupolev Tu-144. The lifetimes are computed from a variant of the correlation length termed the lifelength. Characteristic lifelengths are estimated by fitting a Gaussian distribution to the sensors cross spectra and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov s prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distributions, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data are converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize the behavior of coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer.

Effort Gains in Occupational Teams - The Effects of Social Competition and Social Indispensability.

PubMed

Hertel, Guido; Nohe, Christoph; Wessolowski, Katrin; Meltz, Oliver; Pape, Justina C; Fink, Jonas; Hüffmeier, Joachim

2018-01-01

Laboratory research has demonstrated social competition and social indispensability as potential triggers of effort gains in teams as compared to working alone. However, it is unclear whether such effects are also relevant for existing occupational teams, collaborating for longer time intervals and achieving meaningful outcomes. We assumed that social indispensability effects are prevalent and stable in occupational teams, whereas social competition effects should mainly be effective in the beginning of teamwork and fade out over time. Hypotheses were confirmed in two studies using within-subjects designs with employees recruited via an online panel (Study 1, N = 137) and in software development companies (Study 2, N = 70). By means of the Event Reconstruction Method, participants re-experienced specific events from past working days (three events working alone, three teamwork events), and rated their effort separately for these events. In both studies, multilevel analyses revealed significant effort gains in teams when event-specific social indispensability was high. These effects were mediated by positive mood and perceived task meaningfulness, and additionally qualified by employees' preference for teamwork. In contrast, motivating effects due to event-specific social competition were only observed for teams with short as compared to long team tenure in Study 2.

Adverse events associated with deep brain stimulation for movement disorders: analysis of 510 consecutive cases.

PubMed

Patel, Daxa M; Walker, Harrison C; Brooks, Rebekah; Omar, Nidal; Ditty, Benjamin; Guthrie, Barton L

2015-03-01

Although numerous studies have focused on the efficacy of deep brain stimulation (DBS) for movement disorders, less is known about surgical adverse events, especially over longer time intervals. Here, we analyze adverse events in 510 consecutive cases from a tertiary movement disorders center at up to 10 years postoperatively. We conducted a retrospective review of adverse events from craniotomies between January 2003 and March 2013. The adverse events were categorized into 2 broad categories--immediate perioperative and time-dependent postoperative events. Across all targets, perioperative mental status change occurred in 18 (3.5%) cases, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 4 (0.78%) cases. The most common hardware-related event was skin erosion in 13 (2.5%) cases. The most frequent stimulation-related event was speech disturbance in 16 (3.1%) cases. There were no significant differences among surgical targets with respect to the incidence of these events. Time-dependent postoperative events leading to the revision of a given DBS electrode for any reason occurred in 4.7% ± 1.0%, 9.3% ± 1.4%, and 12.4% ± 1.5% of electrodes at 1, 4, and 7 years postoperatively, respectively. Staged bilateral DBS was associated with approximately twice the risk of repeat surgery for electrode replacement vs unilateral surgery (P = .020). These data provide low incidences for adverse events in a large series of DBS surgeries for movement disorders at up to 10 years follow-up. Accurate estimates of adverse events will better inform patients and caregivers about the potential risks and benefits of surgery and provide normative data for process improvement.

Peculiarity of Seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal Region, Azerbaijan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ismail-Zadeh, Tahir T.

2006-03-23

The study of seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal region demonstrates a temporal correlation of small events in the region with the moderate events in Caucasus for the time interval of 1980 to 1990. It is shown that the processes resulting in deformation and tectonic movements of main structural elements of the Caucasus region are internal and are not related to large-scale tectonic processes. A week dependence of the regional movements on the large-scale motion of the lithospheric plates and microplates is apparent from another geological and geodetic data as well.

Variation in PAH patterns in road runoff.

PubMed

Aryal, Rupak; Furumai, Hiroaki; Nakajima, Fumiyuki; Beecham, Simon

2013-01-01

Twelve particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in the first flush regime of road runoff during nine events in Winterthur in Switzerland. The total PAH contents ranged from 17 to 62 μg/g. The PAH patterns measured at different time intervals during the first flush periods were very similar within each event irrespective of variation in suspended solids (SS) concentration within the first flush regime. However, the PAH patterns were different from event to event. This indicates that the environment plays an important role in PAH accumulation in SS. A toxicity identification evaluation approach using a toxicity equivalency factor (TEF) was applied to compare toxicities in the different events. The TEFs were found to be between 8 and 33 μg TEQ g(-1) (TEQ: toxic equivalent concentration). In some cases, two events having similar total PAH contents showed two fold toxicity differences.

g-PRIME: A Free, Windows Based Data Acquisition and Event Analysis Software Package for Physiology in Classrooms and Research Labs.

PubMed

Lott, Gus K; Johnson, Bruce R; Bonow, Robert H; Land, Bruce R; Hoy, Ronald R

2009-01-01

We present g-PRIME, a software based tool for physiology data acquisition, analysis, and stimulus generation in education and research. This software was developed in an undergraduate neurophysiology course and strongly influenced by instructor and student feedback. g-PRIME is a free, stand-alone, windows application coded and "compiled" in Matlab (does not require a Matlab license). g-PRIME supports many data acquisition interfaces from the PC sound card to expensive high throughput calibrated equipment. The program is designed as a software oscilloscope with standard trigger modes, multi-channel visualization controls, and data logging features. Extensive analysis options allow real time and offline filtering of signals, multi-parameter threshold-and-window based event detection, and two-dimensional display of a variety of parameters including event time, energy density, maximum FFT frequency component, max/min amplitudes, and inter-event rate and intervals. The software also correlates detected events with another simultaneously acquired source (event triggered average) in real time or offline. g-PRIME supports parameter histogram production and a variety of elegant publication quality graphics outputs. A major goal of this software is to merge powerful engineering acquisition and analysis tools with a biological approach to studies of nervous system function.

Timing and Causality in the Generation of Learned Eyelid Responses

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Campusano, Raudel; Gruart, Agnès; Delgado-García, José M.

2011-01-01

The cerebellum-red nucleus-facial motoneuron (Mn) pathway has been reported as being involved in the proper timing of classically conditioned eyelid responses. This special type of associative learning serves as a model of event timing for studying the role of the cerebellum in dynamic motor control. Here, we have re-analyzed the firing activities of cerebellar posterior interpositus (IP) neurons and orbicularis oculi (OO) Mns in alert behaving cats during classical eyeblink conditioning, using a delay paradigm. The aim was to revisit the hypothesis that the IP neurons (IPns) can be considered a neuronal phase-modulating device supporting OO Mns firing with an emergent timing mechanism and an explicit correlation code during learned eyelid movements. Optimized experimental and computational tools allowed us to determine the different causal relationships (temporal order and correlation code) during and between trials. These intra- and inter-trial timing strategies expanding from sub-second range (millisecond timing) to longer-lasting ranges (interval timing) expanded the functional domain of cerebellar timing beyond motor control. Interestingly, the results supported the above-mentioned hypothesis. The causal inferences were influenced by the precise motor and pre-motor spike timing in the cause-effect interval, and, in addition, the timing of the learned responses depended on cerebellar–Mn network causality. Furthermore, the timing of CRs depended upon the probability of simulated causal conditions in the cause-effect interval and not the mere duration of the inter-stimulus interval. In this work, the close relation between timing and causality was verified. It could thus be concluded that the firing activities of IPns may be related more to the proper performance of ongoing CRs (i.e., the proper timing as a consequence of the pertinent causality) than to their generation and/or initiation. PMID:21941469

Timing of repetition suppression of event-related potentials to unattended objects.

PubMed

Stefanics, Gabor; Heinzle, Jakob; Czigler, István; Valentini, Elia; Stephan, Klaas Enno

2018-05-26

Current theories of object perception emphasize the automatic nature of perceptual inference. Repetition suppression (RS), the successive decrease of brain responses to repeated stimuli, is thought to reflect the optimization of perceptual inference through neural plasticity. While functional imaging studies revealed brain regions that show suppressed responses to the repeated presentation of an object, little is known about the intra-trial time course of repetition effects to everyday objects. Here we used event-related potentials (ERP) to task-irrelevant line-drawn objects, while participants engaged in a distractor task. We quantified changes in ERPs over repetitions using three general linear models (GLM) that modelled RS by an exponential, linear, or categorical "change detection" function in each subject. Our aim was to select the model with highest evidence and determine the within-trial time-course and scalp distribution of repetition effects using that model. Model comparison revealed the superiority of the exponential model indicating that repetition effects are observable for trials beyond the first repetition. Model parameter estimates revealed a sequence of RS effects in three time windows (86-140ms, 322-360ms, and 400-446ms) and with occipital, temporo-parietal, and fronto-temporal distribution, respectively. An interval of repetition enhancement (RE) was also observed (320-340ms) over occipito-temporal sensors. Our results show that automatic processing of task-irrelevant objects involves multiple intervals of RS with distinct scalp topographies. These sequential intervals of RS and RE might reflect the short-term plasticity required for optimization of perceptual inference and the associated changes in prediction errors (PE) and predictions, respectively, over stimulus repetitions during automatic object processing. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Authors European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Speeds of light in Stueckelberg-Horwitz-Piron electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land, Martin

2017-05-01

Stueckelberg-Horwitz-Piron (SHP) electrodynamics formalizes the distinction between coordinate time (measured by laboratory clocks) and chronology (temporal ordering) by defining 4D spacetime events x μ as functions of an external evolution parameter τ. As τ grows monotonically, the spacetime evolution of classical events x μ (τ) trace out particle worldlines dynamically and induce the five U(1) gauge potentials through which events interact. In analogy with the constant c that associates a unit of length x 0 with intervals of time t in standard relativity, we introduce a constant c 5 associated with the external time τ. Whereas the nonrelativistic limit of special relativity can be found by taking c → ∞, we show that 5D SHP goes over to an equilibrium state of Maxwell theory in the limit c 5 → 0. Thus, the dimensionless ratio c 5/c parameterizes the deviation of SHP from standard electrodynamics, in particular the coupling of events. Put another way, Maxwell theory can be understood as currents and fields relaxing to an equilibrium independent of chronological time as c 5 τ slows to zero. We find that taking 0 < c 5/c < 1 enables the resolution of several longstanding difficulties in SHP theory.

Differential Drug Survival of Second-Line Biologic Therapies in Patients with Psoriasis: Observational Cohort Study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR).

PubMed

Iskandar, Ireny Y K; Warren, Richard B; Lunt, Mark; Mason, Kayleigh J; Evans, Ian; McElhone, Kathleen; Smith, Catherine H; Reynolds, Nick J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Griffiths, Christopher E M

2018-04-01

Little is known about the drug survival of second-line biologic therapies for psoriasis in routine clinical practice. We assessed drug survival of second-line biologic therapies and estimated the risk of recurrent discontinuation due to adverse events or ineffectiveness in patients with psoriasis who had failed a first biologic therapy and switched to a second in a large, multicenter pharmacovigilance registry (n = 1,239; adalimumab, n = 538; etanercept, n = 104; ustekinumab, n = 597). The overall drug survival rate in the first year after switching was 77% (95% confidence interval = 74-79%), falling to 58% (55-61%) in the third year. Female sex, multiple comorbidities, concomitant therapy with cyclosporine, and a high Psoriasis Area and Severity Index at switching to the second-line biologic therapy were predictors of overall discontinuation (multivariable Cox proportional hazard model). Compared to adalimumab, patients receiving etanercept were more likely to discontinue therapy (hazard ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval = 1.24-2.83), whereas patients receiving ustekinumab were more likely to persist (hazard ratio = 0.46; 95% confidence interval = 0.33-0.64). Discontinuation of the first biologic therapy because of adverse events was associated with an increased rate of second drug discontinuation because of adverse events (hazard ratio = 2.55; 95% confidence interval = 1.50-4.32). In conclusion, drug survival rates differed among biologic therapies and decreased over time; second-line discontinuation because of adverse events was more common among those who discontinued first-line treatment for this reason. The results of this study should support clinical decision making when choosing second-line biologic therapy for patients with psoriasis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Azimuthal propagation of storm time Pc 5 waves observed simultaneously by geostationary satellites GOES 2 and GOES 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, C. S.; Barfield, J. N.

1985-11-01

Storm-time Pc 5 wave events observed simultaneously by the GOES 2 and GOES 3 satellites in the afternoon sector during the 1-year interval of March 1979 to February 1980 are surveyed to learn the wave propagation. Essentially, all storm-time Pc 5 waves (approximately 93 percent) are found to propagate westward azimuthally with a velocity of 5 to 50 km/s and a wavelength of 1000 km to 9000 km (Only two of 30 events had eastward propagation, with a velocity of about 150 km/s). It is concluded that westward propagating waves are excited by ion drift instabilities associated with the ion ring current, and that the eastward propagating waves are excited by surface waves on the magnetopause through Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

Negative Mood State Enhances the Susceptibility to Unpleasant Events: Neural Correlates from a Music-Primed Emotion Classification Task

PubMed Central

Yuan, Jiajin; Chen, Jie; Yang, Jiemin; Ju, Enxia; Norman, Greg J.; Ding, Nanxiang

2014-01-01

Background Various affective disorders are linked with enhanced processing of unpleasant stimuli. However, this link is likely a result of the dominant negative mood derived from the disorder, rather than a result of the disorder itself. Additionally, little is currently known about the influence of mood on the susceptibility to emotional events in healthy populations. Method Event-Related Potentials (ERP) were recorded for pleasant, neutral and unpleasant pictures while subjects performed an emotional/neutral picture classification task during positive, neutral, or negative mood induced by instrumental Chinese music. Results Late Positive Potential (LPP) amplitudes were positively related to the affective arousal of pictures. The emotional responding to unpleasant pictures, indicated by the unpleasant-neutral differences in LPPs, was enhanced during negative compared to neutral and positive moods in the entire LPP time window (600–1000 ms). The magnitude of this enhancement was larger with increasing self-reported negative mood. In contrast, this responding was reduced during positive compared to neutral mood in the 800–1000 ms interval. Additionally, LPP reactions to pleasant stimuli were similar across positive, neutral and negative moods except those in the 800–900 ms interval. Implications Negative mood intensifies the humans' susceptibility to unpleasant events in healthy individuals. In contrast, music-induced happy mood is effective in reducing the susceptibility to these events. Practical implications of these findings were discussed. PMID:24587070

Gamma and neutrino radiation dose from gamma ray bursts and nearby supernovae.

PubMed

Karam, P Andrew

2002-04-01

Supernovae and gamma ray bursts are exceptionally powerful cosmic events that occur randomly in space and time in our galaxy. Their potential to produce very high radiation levels has been discussed, along with speculation that they may have caused mass extinctions noted from the fossil record. It is far more likely that they have produced radiation levels that, while not lethal, are genetically significant, and these events may have influenced the course of evolution and the manner in which organisms respond to radiation insult. Finally, intense gamma radiation exposure from these events may influence the ability of living organisms to travel through space. Calculations presented in this paper suggest that supernovae and gamma ray bursts are likely to produce sea-level radiation exposures of about I Gy with a mean interval of about five million years and sea-level radiation exposures of about 0.2 Gy every million years. Comets and meteors traveling through space would receive doses in excess of 10 Gy at a depth of 0.02 m at mean intervals of 4 and 156 million years, respectively. This may place some constraints on the ability of life to travel through space either between planets or between planetary systems. Calculations of radiation dose from neutrino radiation are presented and indicate that this is not a significant source of radiation exposure for even extremely close events for the expected neutrino spectrum from these events.

Combining microseismic and geomechanical observations to interpret storage integrity at the In Salah CCS site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goertz-Allmann, Bettina P.; Kühn, Daniela; Oye, Volker; Bohloli, Bahman; Aker, Eyvind

2014-07-01

We present results from microseismic monitoring and geomechanical analysis obtained at the industrial-scale CO2 sequestration site at the In Salah gas development project in Algeria. More than 5000 microseismic events have been detected at a pilot monitoring well using a master event cross-correlation method. The microseismic activity occurs in four distinct clusters and thereof three clearly correlate with injection rates and wellhead pressures. These event clusters are consistent with a location within the reservoir interval. However, due to insufficient network geometry there are large uncertainties on event location. We estimate a fracture pressure of 155 bar (at the wellhead) from the comparison of injection pressure and injection rate and conclude that reservoir fracture pressure of the injection horizon has most likely been exceeded occasionally, accompanied by increased microseismic activity. Our analysis of 3-D ray tracing for direct and converted phases suggests that one of the event clusters is located at a shallower depth than the reservoir injection interval. However, this event cluster is most likely unrelated to changes in the injection activity at a single well, as the event times do not correlate with the wellhead pressures. Furthermore, this event cluster shows b-values close to one, indicating re-activated natural or tectonic seismicity on pre-existing weakness zones rather than injection induced seismicity. Analysis of event azimuths and significant shear wave splitting of up to 5 per cent provide further valuable insight into fluid migration and fracture orientation at the reservoir level. Although only one geophone was available during the critical injection period, the microseismic monitoring of CO2 injection at In Salah is capable of addressing some of the most relevant questions about fluid migration and reservoir integrity. An improved monitoring array with larger aperture and higher sensitivity is highly recommended, as it could greatly enhance the value of this technique. As such, real-time microseismic monitoring can be used to guide the injection pressure below fracture pressure, thus providing a tool to mitigate the risk of inducing felt seismicity and compromising seal integrity.

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Fuelberg, Henry E.; Roeder, William P.

2010-01-01

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

An empirical comparison of SPM preprocessing parameters to the analysis of fMRI data.

PubMed

Della-Maggiore, Valeria; Chau, Wilkin; Peres-Neto, Pedro R; McIntosh, Anthony R

2002-09-01

We present the results from two sets of Monte Carlo simulations aimed at evaluating the robustness of some preprocessing parameters of SPM99 for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Statistical robustness was estimated by implementing parametric and nonparametric simulation approaches based on the images obtained from an event-related fMRI experiment. Simulated datasets were tested for combinations of the following parameters: basis function, global scaling, low-pass filter, high-pass filter and autoregressive modeling of serial autocorrelation. Based on single-subject SPM analysis, we derived the following conclusions that may serve as a guide for initial analysis of fMRI data using SPM99: (1) The canonical hemodynamic response function is a more reliable basis function to model the fMRI time series than HRF with time derivative. (2) Global scaling should be avoided since it may significantly decrease the power depending on the experimental design. (3) The use of a high-pass filter may be beneficial for event-related designs with fixed interstimulus intervals. (4) When dealing with fMRI time series with short interstimulus intervals (<8 s), the use of first-order autoregressive model is recommended over a low-pass filter (HRF) because it reduces the risk of inferential bias while providing a relatively good power. For datasets with interstimulus intervals longer than 8 seconds, temporal smoothing is not recommended since it decreases power. While the generalizability of our results may be limited, the methods we employed can be easily implemented by other scientists to determine the best parameter combination to analyze their data.

Reconstruction of Middle Eocene - Late Oligocene Southern Ocean paleoclimate through calcareous nannofossils and stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villa, Giuliana; Fioroni, Chiara; Persico, Davide; Pea, Laura; Bohaty, Steve

2010-05-01

The transition from the ice free early Paleogene world to the glaciated conditions of the early Oligocene has been matter of discussion in the last years. This transition has not been monotonic but punctuated by numerous transient cooling and warming events. Here we present a summary of recent studies based on Nannofossil response to climatic changes during the Eocene and Oligocene. Collected data issue from high latitudes ODP Sites 748, 738, 744, 689 and 690. Based on a detailed revision of the biostratigraphy carried out through quantitative analysis, we conducted paleoecological studies on calcareous nannofossils through the late middle Eocene to the - late Oligocene interval to identify abundance variations of selected taxa in response to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and trophic conditions. The nannofossil-based interpretation has been compared with detailed oxygen and carbon stable isotope stratigraphy confirming the climate variability in the Southern Ocean for this time interval. We identify the Middle Eocene Climatic optimum (MECO) event, related with the regional exclusion of Paleogenic warm-water taxa from the Southern Ocean, followed by the progressive cooling trend particularly emphasized during the cooling events at about 39 Ma, 37 Ma and 35.5 Ma. In the earliest Oligocene, marked changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages are strikingly associated with the Oi-1 event recorded in perfect accordance with the oxygen isotope records. For most of the Oligocene we recorded a cold phase, while a warming trend is detected in the late Oligocene. In addiction, a marked increase of taxa thriving in eutrophic conditions coupled with a decrease in oligotrophic taxa, suggests the presence of a time interval (from about 36 Ma to about 26 Ma) with prevailing eutrophic conditions that correspond to an increase of the carbon stable isotope curve. This interval well corresponds with the clay mineral concentration that shows at Site 738 a higher concentration in illite (Ehrmann and Mackensen, 1992). This result can be interpreted as a major influx of weathering in the basin, bringing more nutrients to the surface water. Our data confirm a strong climate variability in the Southern Ocean during the middle Eocene - late Oligocene and nannofossils demonstrate to be useful tools for paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic reconstructions.

On the properties of stochastic intermittency in rainfall processes.

PubMed

Molini, A; La, Barbera P; Lanza, L G

2002-01-01

In this work we propose a mixed approach to deal with the modelling of rainfall events, based on the analysis of geometrical and statistical properties of rain intermittency in time, combined with the predictability power derived from the analysis of no-rain periods distribution and from the binary decomposition of the rain signal. Some recent hypotheses on the nature of rain intermittency are reviewed too. In particular, the internal intermittent structure of a high resolution pluviometric time series covering one decade and recorded at the tipping bucket station of the University of Genova is analysed, by separating the internal intermittency of rainfall events from the inter-arrival process through a simple geometrical filtering procedure. In this way it is possible to associate no-rain intervals with a probability distribution both in virtue of their position within the event and their percentage. From this analysis, an invariant probability distribution for the no-rain periods within the events is obtained at different aggregation levels and its satisfactory agreement with a typical extreme value distribution is shown.

Flood basalts and extinction events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1993-01-01

The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

Spontaneous brain activity as a source of ideal 1/f noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allegrini, Paolo; Menicucci, Danilo; Bedini, Remo; Fronzoni, Leone; Gemignani, Angelo; Grigolini, Paolo; West, Bruce J.; Paradisi, Paolo

2009-12-01

We study the electroencephalogram (EEG) of 30 closed-eye awake subjects with a technique of analysis recently proposed to detect punctual events signaling rapid transitions between different metastable states. After single-EEG-channel event detection, we study global properties of events simultaneously occurring among two or more electrodes termed coincidences. We convert the coincidences into a diffusion process with three distinct rules that can yield the same μ only in the case where the coincidences are driven by a renewal process. We establish that the time interval between two consecutive renewal events driving the coincidences has a waiting-time distribution with inverse power-law index μ≈2 corresponding to ideal 1/f noise. We argue that this discovery, shared by all subjects of our study, supports the conviction that 1/f noise is an optimal communication channel for complex networks as in art or language and may therefore be the channel through which the brain influences complex processes and is influenced by them.

Semiparametric regression analysis of failure time data with dependent interval censoring.

PubMed

Chen, Chyong-Mei; Shen, Pao-Sheng

2017-09-20

Interval-censored failure-time data arise when subjects are examined or observed periodically such that the failure time of interest is not examined exactly but only known to be bracketed between two adjacent observation times. The commonly used approaches assume that the examination times and the failure time are independent or conditionally independent given covariates. In many practical applications, patients who are already in poor health or have a weak immune system before treatment usually tend to visit physicians more often after treatment than those with better health or immune system. In this situation, the visiting rate is positively correlated with the risk of failure due to the health status, which results in dependent interval-censored data. While some measurable factors affecting health status such as age, gender, and physical symptom can be included in the covariates, some health-related latent variables cannot be observed or measured. To deal with dependent interval censoring involving unobserved latent variable, we characterize the visiting/examination process as recurrent event process and propose a joint frailty model to account for the association of the failure time and visiting process. A shared gamma frailty is incorporated into the Cox model and proportional intensity model for the failure time and visiting process, respectively, in a multiplicative way. We propose a semiparametric maximum likelihood approach for estimating model parameters and show the asymptotic properties, including consistency and weak convergence. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and a data set of bladder cancer is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Long-term safety and tolerability of saxagliptin add-on therapy in older patients (aged ≥65 years) with type 2 diabetes

PubMed Central

Iqbal, Nayyar; Allen, Elsie; Öhman, Peter

2014-01-01

Background Treatment decisions for older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus must balance glycemic control and adverse event risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and tolerability of saxagliptin 5 mg as add-on therapy to common antihyperglycemic drugs in patients aged ≥65 years and <65 years. Methods Pooled adverse event data from three placebo-controlled trials of 76–206 weeks’ duration in older (≥65 years) and younger (<65 years) patients receiving saxagliptin 5 mg or matching placebo added to metformin, glyburide, or a thiazolidinedione were analyzed. Measurements were calculated from day of first dose to specified event or last dose and included time at risk for adverse events, treatment-related adverse events, serious adverse events, adverse events leading to discontinuation, and events of special interest. Weighted incidence rates (number of events/total time) and incidence rate ratios (saxagliptin/placebo) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated (Mantel-Haenszel test). Results A total of 205 older (mean age 69 years; saxagliptin, n=99; placebo, n=106) and 1,055 younger (mean age 52 years; saxagliptin, n=531; placebo, n=524) patients were assessed. Regardless of age category, the adverse event incidence rates were generally similar between treatments, with confidence intervals for incidence rate ratios bridging 1. Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 36 older patients receiving saxagliptin versus 32 receiving placebo (incidence rate 34.1 versus 27.1 per 100 person-years) and in 150 younger patients in both treatment groups (incidence rate 24.0 versus 27.8 per 100 person-years). With saxagliptin versus placebo, serious adverse events occurred in eight versus 14 older (incidence rate 5.7 versus 9.9 per 100 person-years) and 49 versus 44 younger patients (incidence rate 6.5 versus 6.6 per 100 person-years). There were two deaths (one patient ≥65 years) with saxagliptin and six (none aged ≥65 years) with placebo. Older patients rarely experienced symptomatic confirmed hypoglycemia (fingerstick glucose ≤50 mg/dL; saxagliptin, n=1; placebo, n=2). Conclusion Saxagliptin add-on therapy was generally well tolerated in older patients aged ≥65 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus, with a long-term safety profile similar to that of placebo. PMID:25214775

Long-term safety and tolerability of saxagliptin add-on therapy in older patients (aged ≥ 65 years) with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Iqbal, Nayyar; Allen, Elsie; Öhman, Peter

2014-01-01

Treatment decisions for older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus must balance glycemic control and adverse event risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and tolerability of saxagliptin 5 mg as add-on therapy to common antihyperglycemic drugs in patients aged ≥ 65 years and <65 years. Pooled adverse event data from three placebo-controlled trials of 76-206 weeks' duration in older (≥ 65 years) and younger (<65 years) patients receiving saxagliptin 5 mg or matching placebo added to metformin, glyburide, or a thiazolidinedione were analyzed. Measurements were calculated from day of first dose to specified event or last dose and included time at risk for adverse events, treatment-related adverse events, serious adverse events, adverse events leading to discontinuation, and events of special interest. Weighted incidence rates (number of events/total time) and incidence rate ratios (saxagliptin/placebo) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated (Mantel-Haenszel test). A total of 205 older (mean age 69 years; saxagliptin, n=99; placebo, n=106) and 1,055 younger (mean age 52 years; saxagliptin, n=531; placebo, n=524) patients were assessed. Regardless of age category, the adverse event incidence rates were generally similar between treatments, with confidence intervals for incidence rate ratios bridging 1. Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 36 older patients receiving saxagliptin versus 32 receiving placebo (incidence rate 34.1 versus 27.1 per 100 person-years) and in 150 younger patients in both treatment groups (incidence rate 24.0 versus 27.8 per 100 person-years). With saxagliptin versus placebo, serious adverse events occurred in eight versus 14 older (incidence rate 5.7 versus 9.9 per 100 person-years) and 49 versus 44 younger patients (incidence rate 6.5 versus 6.6 per 100 person-years). There were two deaths (one patient ≥ 65 years) with saxagliptin and six (none aged ≥ 65 years) with placebo. Older patients rarely experienced symptomatic confirmed hypoglycemia (fingerstick glucose ≤ 50 mg/dL; saxagliptin, n=1; placebo, n=2). Saxagliptin add-on therapy was generally well tolerated in older patients aged ≥ 65 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus, with a long-term safety profile similar to that of placebo.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

On the predictability of individual events in power-law systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de, Rumi

2006-11-01

We consider a modified Burridge-Knopoff model with a view to understand results of acoustic emission (AE) relevant to earthquakes by adding a dissipative term which mimics bursts of acous- tic signals. Interestingly, we find a precursor effect in the cumulative energy dissipated which allows identification of a large slip event. Further, the AE activity for several large slip events follows a universal stretched exponential behavior with corrections in terms of time-to-failure. We find that many features of the statistics of AE signals such as their amplitudes, durations and the intervals between successive AE bursts obey power laws consistent with recent experimental results. Large magnitude events have different power law from that of the small ones, the latter being sensitive to the pulling speed.

Prolonged warm ischemia time is associated with graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Tennankore, Karthik K; Kim, S Joseph; Alwayn, Ian P J; Kiberd, Bryce A

2016-03-01

Warm ischemia time is a potentially modifiable insult to transplanted kidneys, but little is known about its effect on long-term outcomes. Here we conducted a study of United States kidney transplant recipients (years 2000-2013) to determine the association between warm ischemia time (the time from organ removal from cold storage to reperfusion with warm blood) and death/graft failure. Times under 10 minutes were potentially attributed to coding error. Therefore, the 10-to-under-20-minute interval was chosen as the reference group. The primary outcome was mortality and graft failure (return to chronic dialysis or preemptive retransplantation) adjusted for recipient, donor, immunologic, and surgical factors. The study included 131,677 patients with 35,901 events. Relative to the reference patients, times of 10 to under 20, 20 to under 30, 30 to under 40, 40 to under 50, 50 to under 60, and 60 and more minutes were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.15), 1.13 (1.06-1.22), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), 1.20 (1.12-1.30), and 1.23 (1.15-1.33) for the composite event, respectively. Association between prolonged warm ischemia time and death/graft failure persisted after stratification by donor type (living vs. deceased donor) and delayed graft function status. Thus, warm ischemia time is associated with adverse long-term patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation. Identifying strategies to reduce warm ischemia time is an important consideration for future study. Copyright © 2015 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

El Nino-like events during Miocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.

El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in themore » laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.« less

Atmospheric Rivers and floods in Southern California: Climate forcing of extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendy, I. L.; Heusser, L. E.; Napier, T.; Pak, D. K.

2016-12-01

Southern California has a Mediterranean type climate characterized by warm dry summers associated with the North Pacific High pressure system and cool, wet winters primarily associated in low pressure systems originating in the high latitude North Pacific. Extreme precipitation, however, is connected to strong zonal flow that brings warm, moist tropical across the Pacific (AKA atmospheric river). Here we present a revised record of flood events in Santa Barbara Basin that have been linked to atmospheric rivers focusing on events associated with transitions between known climate events using new radiocarbon chronology and detailed sediment composition. Flood events identified by homogenous grey layers are present throughout the Holocene with a recurrence every 110 years, but are particularly common (85 year recurrence) between 4,200 and 2,000 years BP. Interval between 6,500 and 4,500 commonly associated with dry conditions in California was associated with fewer flood events (recurrence interval increased to 176 years). Intervals of high lake levels in California associated with pluvials appear to be associated with more frequent extreme precipitation events. The longest recurrence interval (535 years) is associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The season in which the atmospheric river occurs was estimated using the relative abundance of pollen within the flood deposit. The 735 and 1270 C.E. flood events are associated with May-June flowering vegetation, while the most recent events (1861-2 and 1761 C.E.) were associated with November to March flowering vegetation. This agrees with the December-January rainfall records of the historic 1861-62. We conclude the frequency of extreme precipitation events appears to increase as climate cools (e.g. the Little Ice Age).

Clinical Outcomes of Transplanted Modified Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Stroke: A Phase 1/2a Study.

PubMed

Steinberg, Gary K; Kondziolka, Douglas; Wechsler, Lawrence R; Lunsford, L Dade; Coburn, Maria L; Billigen, Julia B; Kim, Anthony S; Johnson, Jeremiah N; Bates, Damien; King, Bill; Case, Casey; McGrogan, Michael; Yankee, Ernest W; Schwartz, Neil E

2016-07-01

Preclinical data suggest that cell-based therapies have the potential to improve stroke outcomes. Eighteen patients with stable, chronic stroke were enrolled in a 2-year, open-label, single-arm study to evaluate the safety and clinical outcomes of surgical transplantation of modified bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (SB623). All patients in the safety population (N=18) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Six patients experienced 6 serious treatment-emergent adverse events; 2 were probably or definitely related to surgical procedure; none were related to cell treatment. All serious treatment-emergent adverse events resolved without sequelae. There were no dose-limiting toxicities or deaths. Sixteen patients completed 12 months of follow-up at the time of this analysis. Significant improvement from baseline (mean) was reported for: (1) European Stroke Scale: mean increase 6.88 (95% confidence interval, 3.5-10.3; P<0.001), (2) National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: mean decrease 2.00 (95% confidence interval, -2.7 to -1.3; P<0.001), (3) Fugl-Meyer total score: mean increase 19.20 (95% confidence interval, 11.4-27.0; P<0.001), and (4) Fugl-Meyer motor function total score: mean increase 11.40 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-18.2; P<0.001). No changes were observed in modified Rankin Scale. The area of magnetic resonance T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery signal change in the ipsilateral cortex 1 week after implantation significantly correlated with clinical improvement at 12 months (P<0.001 for European Stroke Scale). In this interim report, SB623 cells were safe and associated with improvement in clinical outcome end points at 12 months. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01287936. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Sequential Processing and the Matching-Stimulus Interval Effect in ERP Components: An Exploration of the Mechanism Using Multiple Regression

PubMed Central

Steiner, Genevieve Z.; Barry, Robert J.; Gonsalvez, Craig J.

2016-01-01

In oddball tasks, increasing the time between stimuli within a particular condition (target-to-target interval, TTI; nontarget-to-nontarget interval, NNI) systematically enhances N1, P2, and P300 event-related potential (ERP) component amplitudes. This study examined the mechanism underpinning these effects in ERP components recorded from 28 adults who completed a conventional three-tone oddball task. Bivariate correlations, partial correlations and multiple regression explored component changes due to preceding ERP component amplitudes and intervals found within the stimulus series, rather than constraining the task with experimentally constructed intervals, which has been adequately explored in prior studies. Multiple regression showed that for targets, N1 and TTI predicted N2, TTI predicted P3a and P3b, and Processing Negativity (PN), P3b, and TTI predicted reaction time. For rare nontargets, P1 predicted N1, NNI predicted N2, and N1 predicted Slow Wave (SW). Findings show that the mechanism is operating on separate stages of stimulus-processing, suggestive of either increased activation within a number of stimulus-specific pathways, or very long component generator recovery cycles. These results demonstrate the extent to which matching-stimulus intervals influence ERP component amplitudes and behavior in a three-tone oddball task, and should be taken into account when designing similar studies. PMID:27445774

Sequential Processing and the Matching-Stimulus Interval Effect in ERP Components: An Exploration of the Mechanism Using Multiple Regression.

PubMed

Steiner, Genevieve Z; Barry, Robert J; Gonsalvez, Craig J

2016-01-01

In oddball tasks, increasing the time between stimuli within a particular condition (target-to-target interval, TTI; nontarget-to-nontarget interval, NNI) systematically enhances N1, P2, and P300 event-related potential (ERP) component amplitudes. This study examined the mechanism underpinning these effects in ERP components recorded from 28 adults who completed a conventional three-tone oddball task. Bivariate correlations, partial correlations and multiple regression explored component changes due to preceding ERP component amplitudes and intervals found within the stimulus series, rather than constraining the task with experimentally constructed intervals, which has been adequately explored in prior studies. Multiple regression showed that for targets, N1 and TTI predicted N2, TTI predicted P3a and P3b, and Processing Negativity (PN), P3b, and TTI predicted reaction time. For rare nontargets, P1 predicted N1, NNI predicted N2, and N1 predicted Slow Wave (SW). Findings show that the mechanism is operating on separate stages of stimulus-processing, suggestive of either increased activation within a number of stimulus-specific pathways, or very long component generator recovery cycles. These results demonstrate the extent to which matching-stimulus intervals influence ERP component amplitudes and behavior in a three-tone oddball task, and should be taken into account when designing similar studies.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

PubMed Central

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-01-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. PMID:28722009

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

PubMed

Rubin, Charles M; Horton, Benjamin P; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C

2017-07-19

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-07-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.; Guilderson, T.P.

2010-01-01

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

Timing and documentation of key events in neonatal resuscitation.

PubMed

Heathcote, Adam Charles; Jones, Jacqueline; Clarke, Paul

2018-04-30

Only a minority of babies require extended resuscitation at birth. Resuscitations concerning babies who die or who survive with adverse outcomes are increasingly subject to medicolegal scrutiny. Our aim was to describe real-life timings of key resuscitation events observed in a historical series of newborns who required full resuscitation at birth. Twenty-seven babies born in our centre over a 10-year period had an Apgar score of 0 at 1 min and required full resuscitation. The median (95% confidence interval) postnatal age at achieving key events were commencing cardiac compressions, 2.0 (1.5-4.0) min; endotracheal intubation, 3.8 (2.0-6.0) min; umbilical venous catheterisation 9.0 (7.5-12.0) min; and administration of first adrenaline dose 10.0 (8.0-14.0) min. The wide range of timings presented from real-life cases may prove useful to clinicians involved in medical negligence claims and provide a baseline for quality improvements in resuscitation training. What is Known: • Only a minority of babies require extended resuscitation at birth; these cases are often subject to medicolegal interrogation • Timings of key resuscitation events are poorly described and documentation of resuscitation events is often lacking yet is open to medicolegal scrutiny What is New: • We present a wide range of real-life timings of key resuscitation events during the era of routine newborn life support training • These timings may prove useful to clinicians involved in medical negligence claims and provide a baseline for quality improvements in resuscitation training.

Controls on the long term earthquake behavior of an intraplate fault revealed by U-Th and stable isotope analyses of syntectonic calcite veins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Randolph; Goodwin, Laurel; Sharp, Warren; Mozley, Peter

2017-04-01

U-Th dates on calcite precipitated in coseismic extension fractures in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, NM, USA, constrain earthquake recurrence intervals from 150-565 ka. This is the longest direct record of seismicity documented for a fault in any tectonic environment. Combined U-Th and stable isotope analyses of these calcite veins define 13 distinct earthquake events. These data show that for more than 400 ka the Loma Blanca fault produced earthquakes with a mean recurrence interval of 40 ± 7 ka. The coefficient of variation for these events is 0.40, indicating strongly periodic seismicity consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. Stochastic statistical analyses further validate the inference that earthquake behavior on the Loma Blanca was time-dependent. The time-dependent nature of these earthquakes suggests that the seismic cycle was fundamentally controlled by a stress renewal process. However, this periodic cycle was punctuated by an episode of clustered seismicity at 430 ka. Recurrence intervals within the earthquake cluster were as low as 5-11 ka. Breccia veins formed during this episode exhibit carbon isotope signatures consistent with having formed through pronounced degassing of a CO2 charged brine during post-failure, fault-localized fluid migration. The 40 ka periodicity of the long-term earthquake record of the Loma Blanca fault is similar in magnitude to recurrence intervals documented through paleoseismic studies of other normal faults in the Rio Grande rift and Basin and Range Province. We propose that it represents a background rate of failure in intraplate extension. The short-term, clustered seismicity that occurred on the fault records an interruption of the stress renewal process, likely by elevated fluid pressure in deeper structural levels of the fault, consistent with fault-valve behavior. The relationship between recurrence interval and inferred fluid degassing suggests that pore fluid pressure along the fault may have been driven by variations in CO2 content, thereby fundamentally affecting earthquake frequency. Thus, the Loma Blanca fault provides a record of "naturally induced" seismicity, with lessons for better understanding anthropogenic induced seismicity.

Preliminary report on the CTS transient event counter performance through the 1976 spring eclipse season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, N. J.; Levell, R. R.; Klinect, V. W.

1976-01-01

The transient event counter (TEC), senses and counts transients having a voltage rise of greater than five volts in three separate wire harnesses: the attitude control harness, the solar array instrumentation harness and the solar array power harness. The operational characteristics of TEC are defined and the preliminary results obtained through the first 90 days of operation including the spring 1976 eclipse season are presented. The results show that the Communications Technology Satellite was charged to the point where discharges occurred. The discharge induced transients did not cause any anomalous events in spacecraft operation. The data indicate that discharges can occur at any time during the day without preference to any local time quadrant. The number of discharges occurring in the one second sample interval are greater than anticipated. The compilation and review of the data is continuing.

Reaction Event Counting Statistics of Biopolymer Reaction Systems with Dynamic Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Lim, Yu Rim; Park, Seong Jun; Park, Bo Jung; Cao, Jianshu; Silbey, Robert J; Sung, Jaeyoung

2012-04-10

We investigate the reaction event counting statistics (RECS) of an elementary biopolymer reaction in which the rate coefficient is dependent on states of the biopolymer and the surrounding environment and discover a universal kinetic phase transition in the RECS of the reaction system with dynamic heterogeneity. From an exact analysis for a general model of elementary biopolymer reactions, we find that the variance in the number of reaction events is dependent on the square of the mean number of the reaction events when the size of measurement time is small on the relaxation time scale of rate coefficient fluctuations, which does not conform to renewal statistics. On the other hand, when the size of the measurement time interval is much greater than the relaxation time of rate coefficient fluctuations, the variance becomes linearly proportional to the mean reaction number in accordance with renewal statistics. Gillespie's stochastic simulation method is generalized for the reaction system with a rate coefficient fluctuation. The simulation results confirm the correctness of the analytic results for the time dependent mean and variance of the reaction event number distribution. On the basis of the obtained results, we propose a method of quantitative analysis for the reaction event counting statistics of reaction systems with rate coefficient fluctuations, which enables one to extract information about the magnitude and the relaxation times of the fluctuating reaction rate coefficient, without a bias that can be introduced by assuming a particular kinetic model of conformational dynamics and the conformation dependent reactivity. An exact relationship is established between a higher moment of the reaction event number distribution and the multitime correlation of the reaction rate for the reaction system with a nonequilibrium initial state distribution as well as for the system with the equilibrium initial state distribution.

Outcome of adults with Eisenmenger syndrome treated with drugs specific to pulmonary arterial hypertension: A French multicentre study.

PubMed

Hascoet, Sebastien; Fournier, Emmanuelle; Jaïs, Xavier; Le Gloan, Lauriane; Dauphin, Claire; Houeijeh, Ali; Godart, Francois; Iriart, Xavier; Richard, Adelaïde; Radojevic, Jelena; Amedro, Pascal; Bosser, Gilles; Souletie, Nathalie; Bernard, Yvette; Moceri, Pamela; Bouvaist, Hélène; Mauran, Pierre; Barre, Elise; Basquin, Adeline; Karsenty, Clement; Bonnet, Damien; Iserin, Laurence; Sitbon, Olivier; Petit, Jérôme; Fadel, Elie; Humbert, Marc; Ladouceur, Magalie

2017-05-01

The relationship between pulmonary arterial hypertension-specific drug therapy (PAH-SDT) and mortality in Eisenmenger syndrome (ES) is controversial. To investigate outcomes in patients with ES, and their relationship with PAH-SDT. Retrospective, observational, nationwide, multicentre cohort study. We included 340 patients with ES: genetic syndrome (n=119; 35.3%); pretricuspid defect (n=75; 22.1%). Overall, 276 (81.2%) patients received PAH-SDT: monotherapy (endothelin receptor antagonist [ERA] or phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor [PDE5I]) 46.7%; dual therapy (ERA+PDE5I) 40.9%; triple therapy (ERA+PDE5I+prostanoid) 9.1%. Median PAH-SDT duration was 5.5 years [3.0-9.1 years]. Events (death, lung or heart-lung transplantation) occurred in 95 (27.9%) patients at a median age of 40.5 years [29.4-47.6]. The cumulative occurrence of events was 16.7% [95% confidence interval 12.8-21.6%] and 46.4% [95% confidence interval 38.2-55.4%] at age 40 and 60 years, respectively. With age at evaluation or time since PAH diagnosis as time scales, cumulative occurrence of events was lower in patients taking one or two PAH-SDTs (P=0.0001 and P=0.004, respectively), with the largest differences in the post-tricuspid defect subgroup (P<0.001 and P<0.02, respectively) versus patients without PAH-SDT. By multivariable Cox analysis, with time since PAH diagnosis as time scale, New York Heart Association/World Health Organization functional class III/IV, lower peripheral arterial oxygen saturation and pretricuspid defect were associated with a higher risk of events (P=0.002, P=0.01 and P=0.04, respectively), and one or two PAH-SDTs with a lower risk of events (P=0.009). Outcomes are poor in ES, but seem better with PAH-SDT. ES with pretricuspid defects has worse outcomes despite the delayed disease onset. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A simulation model for determining the optimal size of emergency teams on call in the operating room at night.

PubMed

van Oostrum, Jeroen M; Van Houdenhoven, Mark; Vrielink, Manon M J; Klein, Jan; Hans, Erwin W; Klimek, Markus; Wullink, Gerhard; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Kazemier, Geert

2008-11-01

Hospitals that perform emergency surgery during the night (e.g., from 11:00 pm to 7:30 am) face decisions on optimal operating room (OR) staffing. Emergency patients need to be operated on within a predefined safety window to decrease morbidity and improve their chances of full recovery. We developed a process to determine the optimal OR team composition during the night, such that staffing costs are minimized, while providing adequate resources to start surgery within the safety interval. A discrete event simulation in combination with modeling of safety intervals was applied. Emergency surgery was allowed to be postponed safely. The model was tested using data from the main OR of Erasmus University Medical Center (Erasmus MC). Two outcome measures were calculated: violation of safety intervals and frequency with which OR and anesthesia nurses were called in from home. We used the following input data from Erasmus MC to estimate distributions of all relevant parameters in our model: arrival times of emergency patients, durations of surgical cases, length of stay in the postanesthesia care unit, and transportation times. In addition, surgeons and OR staff of Erasmus MC specified safety intervals. Reducing in-house team members from 9 to 5 increased the fraction of patients treated too late by 2.5% as compared to the baseline scenario. Substantially more OR and anesthesia nurses were called in from home when needed. The use of safety intervals benefits OR management during nights. Modeling of safety intervals substantially influences the number of emergency patients treated on time. Our case study showed that by modeling safety intervals and applying computer simulation, an OR can reduce its staff on call without jeopardizing patient safety.

Relative time sharing: new findings and an extension of the resource allocation model of temporal processing.

PubMed

Buhusi, Catalin V; Meck, Warren H

2009-07-12

Individuals time as if using a stopwatch that can be stopped or reset on command. Here, we review behavioural and neurobiological data supporting the time-sharing hypothesis that perceived time depends on the attentional and memory resources allocated to the timing process. Neuroimaging studies in humans suggest that timekeeping tasks engage brain circuits typically involved in attention and working memory. Behavioural, pharmacological, lesion and electrophysiological studies in lower animals support this time-sharing hypothesis. When subjects attend to a second task, or when intruder events are presented, estimated durations are shorter, presumably due to resources being taken away from timing. Here, we extend the time-sharing hypothesis by proposing that resource reallocation is proportional to the perceived contrast, both in temporal and non-temporal features, between intruders and the timed events. New findings support this extension by showing that the effect of an intruder event is dependent on the relative duration of the intruder to the intertrial interval. The conclusion is that the brain circuits engaged by timekeeping comprise not only those primarily involved in time accumulation, but also those involved in the maintenance of attentional and memory resources for timing, and in the monitoring and reallocation of those resources among tasks.

Earthquake Clustering on Normal Faults: Insight from Rate-and-State Friction Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biemiller, J.; Lavier, L. L.; Wallace, L.

2016-12-01

Temporal variations in slip rate on normal faults have been recognized in Hawaii and the Basin and Range. The recurrence intervals of these slip transients range from 2 years on the flanks of Kilauea, Hawaii to 10 kyr timescale earthquake clustering on the Wasatch Fault in the eastern Basin and Range. In addition to these longer recurrence transients in the Basin and Range, recent GPS results there also suggest elevated deformation rate events with recurrence intervals of 2-4 years. These observations suggest that some active normal fault systems are dominated by slip behaviors that fall between the end-members of steady aseismic creep and periodic, purely elastic, seismic-cycle deformation. Recent studies propose that 200 year to 50 kyr timescale supercycles may control the magnitude, timing, and frequency of seismic-cycle earthquakes in subduction zones, where aseismic slip transients are known to play an important role in total deformation. Seismic cycle deformation of normal faults may be similarly influenced by its timing within long-period supercycles. We present numerical models (based on rate-and-state friction) of normal faults such as the Wasatch Fault showing that realistic rate-and-state parameter distributions along an extensional fault zone can give rise to earthquake clusters separated by 500 yr - 5 kyr periods of aseismic slip transients on some portions of the fault. The recurrence intervals of events within each earthquake cluster range from 200 to 400 years. Our results support the importance of stress and strain history as controls on a normal fault's present and future slip behavior and on the characteristics of its current seismic cycle. These models suggest that long- to medium-term fault slip history may influence the temporal distribution, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes for a given normal fault segment.

Early to middle Miocene climate evolution: benthic oxygen and carbon isotope records from Walvis Ridge Site 1264.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lourens, L. J.; Beddow, H.; Liebrand, D.; Schrader, C.; Hilgen, F. J.

2016-12-01

Across the early to middle Miocene, high-resolution records from the Pacific Ocean indicate a dynamic climate system, encompassing a 2 Myr global warming event from 17 Ma to 14.7 Ma, followed by a major Cenozoic cooling step at 14.2 Ma -13.8 Ma. Currently, no high-resolution benthic record from the Atlantic Ocean exists covering both events, limiting global coverage of this intriguing period in Cenozoic climate evolution. Here, we present the first early to middle Miocene high-resolution from the Atlantic basin. These records, from Site 1264 on the Walvis Ridge, span a 5.5 Myr long interval (13.24-18.90 ma) in high temporal resolution ( 4 kyr) and are tuned to eccentricity. The d18O record shows a sudden (high-latitude) warming/deglaciation on Antarctica at 17.1 Ma, a rapid cooling/glaciation of Antarctica at 13.8 Ma, and high-amplitude ( 1‰) variability on astronomical time-scales throughout this interval. Together with other records from this time interval located in the Pacific, which show similar features, the data strongly suggests a highly dynamic global climate system. We find cooling steps in d18O at 14.7, 14.2 and 13.8 Ma, suggesting concurrent cooling in the Pacific and Atlantic deep waters during the MMCT. The benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records reveal that the dominant astronomical frequencies present at ODP Site 1264 during the early to middle Miocene interval are the 405 kyr and 110 kyr eccentricity periodicities. This is a contrast to other early to middle Miocene records from drill-sites in the Pacific and South China Sea, which show a strong expression of obliquity in particular between 14.2 and 14.7 Ma.

Changes in intensity of precipitation extremes in Romania on very hight temporal scale and implications on the validity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Breza, Traian; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Stoica, Cerasela; Baghina, Nina

2016-04-01

Many observational, theoretical and based on climate model simulation studies suggested that warmer climates lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. In this way, it was suggested that extreme precipitation events may increase at Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate under global warming and constraint of constant relative humidity. However, recent studies show that the relationship between extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature is much more complex than would be suggested by the CC relationship and is mainly dependent on precipitation temporal resolution, region, storm type and whether the analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed data. The present study presents the dependence between the very hight temporal scale extreme rainfall intensity and daily temperatures, with respect to the verification of the CC relation. To solve this objective, the analysis is conducted on rainfall event rather than fixed interval using the rainfall data based on graphic records including intensities (mm/min.) calculated over each interval with permanent intensity per minute. The annual interval with available a such data (April to October) is considered at 5 stations over the interval 1950-2007. For Bucuresti-Filaret station the analysis is extended over the longer interval (1898-2007). For each rainfall event, the maximum intensity (mm/min.) is retained and these time series are considered for the further analysis (abbreviated in the following as IMAX). The IMAX data were divided based on the daily mean temperature into bins 2oC - wide. The bins with less than 100 values were excluded. The 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentiles were computed from the binned data using the empirical distribution and their variability has been compared to the CC scaling (e.g. exponential relation given by a 7% increase per temperature degree rise). The results show a dependence close to double the CC relation for temperatures less than ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. This behaviour is similar for all the 5 analysed stations over the common interval 1950-2007. This scaling is more exactly for the 90th percentile, while for the higher percentiles the rainfall intensity in response to warming exceeds sometimes the CC rate. For Bucuresti-Filaret station, the results are similar over a longer interval (1898-2007) showing that these findings are robust. Similar techniques has been previously applied to the hourly rainfall intensities recorded at 9 stations (including the 5 ones) and the results are slightly different: the 90th percentile shows dependence close to the CC relation for all temperatures; the 99th and 99.9th percentiles exhibit rates close to double the CC rate for temperatures between ~ 100C and ~ 220C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. In conclusion, these results show that the dependence between the extreme precipitation intensity and atmospheric temperature in Romania is mainly dependent on the temporal precipitation resolution and the degree of the extreme precipitation event (moderate or stronger); these findings are mainly in agreenment with the conclusions presented by previous international studies (mentioned above), with some regional specific features, showing the importance of the regional studies. The results presented is this study were funded by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI) through the research project CLIMHYDEX, "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania", code PNII-ID-2011-2-0073 (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

Comparison of Time-to-First Event and Recurrent Event Methods in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Claggett, Brian; Pocock, Stuart; Wei, L J; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2018-03-27

Background -Most Phase-3 trials feature time-to-first event endpoints for their primary and/or secondary analyses. In chronic diseases where a clinical event can occur more than once, recurrent-event methods have been proposed to more fully capture disease burden and have been assumed to improve statistical precision and power compared to conventional "time-to-first" methods. Methods -To better characterize factors that influence statistical properties of recurrent-events and time-to-first methods in the evaluation of randomized therapy, we repeatedly simulated trials with 1:1 randomization of 4000 patients to active vs control therapy, with true patient-level risk reduction of 20% (i.e. RR=0.80). For patients who discontinued active therapy after a first event, we assumed their risk reverted subsequently to their original placebo-level risk. Through simulation, we varied a) the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk and b) the extent of treatment discontinuation. Findings were compared with those from actual randomized clinical trials. Results -As the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk was increased, both time-to-first and recurrent-events methods lost statistical power to detect a true risk reduction and confidence intervals widened. The recurrent-events analyses continued to estimate the true RR=0.80 as heterogeneity increased, while the Cox model produced estimates that were attenuated. The power of recurrent-events methods declined as the rate of study drug discontinuation post-event increased. Recurrent-events methods provided greater power than time-to-first methods in scenarios where drug discontinuation was ≤30% following a first event, lesser power with drug discontinuation rates of ≥60%, and comparable power otherwise. We confirmed in several actual trials in chronic heart failure that treatment effect estimates were attenuated when estimated via the Cox model and that increased statistical power from recurrent-events methods was most pronounced in trials with lower treatment discontinuation rates. Conclusions -We find that the statistical power of both recurrent-events and time-to-first methods are reduced by increasing heterogeneity of patient risk, a parameter not included in conventional power and sample size formulas. Data from real clinical trials are consistent with simulation studies, confirming that the greatest statistical gains from use of recurrent-events methods occur in the presence of high patient heterogeneity and low rates of study drug discontinuation.

Significance of a positive family history for coronary heart disease in patients with a zero coronary artery calcium score (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

PubMed

Cohen, Randy; Budoff, Matthew; McClelland, Robyn L; Sillau, Stefan; Burke, Gregory; Blaha, Michael; Szklo, Moyses; Uretsky, Seth; Rozanski, Alan; Shea, Steven

2014-10-15

Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 is associated with a very low 10-year risk for cardiac events, this risk is nonzero. Subjects with a family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been associated with more subclinical atherosclerosis than subjects without a family history of CHD. The purpose of this study was to assess the significance of a family history for CHD in subjects with a CAC score of 0. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort includes 6,814 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. Positive family history was defined as reporting a parent, sibling, or child who had a heart attack. Time to incident CHD or CVD event was modeled using the multivariable Cox regression; 3,185 subjects were identified from the original Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort as having a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age 58 years, 37% men). Over a median follow-up of 10 years, 101 participants (3.2%) had CVD events and 56 (1.8%) had CHD events. In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, a family history of CHD was associated with an ∼70% increase in CVD (hazard ratio 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 2.56) and CHD (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.91) events. CVD events remained significant after further adjustment for ethnicity, risk factors, and baseline medication use. In conclusion, asymptomatic subjects with a 0 CAC score and a positive family history of CHD are at increased risk for CVD and CHD events compared with those without a family history of CHD, although absolute event rates remain low. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intermittent tremor migrations beneath Guerrero, Mexico, and implications for fault healing within the slow slip zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Yajun; Rubin, Allan M.

2017-01-01

Slow slip events exhibit significant complexity in slip evolution and variations in recurrence intervals. Behavior that varies systematically with recurrence interval is likely to reflect different extents of fault healing between these events. Here we use high-resolution tremor catalogs beneath Guerrero, Mexico, to investigate the mechanics of slow slip. We observe complex tremor propagation styles, including rapid tremor migrations propagating either along the main tremor front or backward, reminiscent of those in northern Cascadia. We also find many migrations that originate well behind the front and repeatedly occupy the same source region during a tremor episode, similar to those previously reported from Shikoku, Japan. These migrations could be driven by slow slip in the surrounding regions, with recurrence intervals possibly modulated by tides. The propagation speed of these migrations decreases systematically with time since the previous migration over the same source area. Tremor amplitudes seem consistent with changes in the propagation speeds being controlled primarily by changes in the slip speeds. One interpretation is that the high propagation speeds and inferred high slip speeds during the migrations with short recurrence intervals are caused by incomplete healing within the host rock adjacent to the shear zone, which could lead to high permeability and reduced dilatant strengthening of the fault gouge. Similar processes may operate in other slow slip source regions such as Cascadia.

Integrating Security in Real-Time Embedded Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-26

b) detect any intrusions/a ttacks once tl1ey occur and (c) keep the overall system safe in the event of an attack. 4. Analysis and evaluation of...beyond), we expanded our work in both security integration and attack mechanisms, and worked on demonstrations and evaluations in hardware. Year I...scheduling for each busy interval w ith the calculated arrival time w indow. Step 1 focuses on the problem of finding the quanti ty of each task

Perfect Detection of Spikes in the Linear Sub-threshold Dynamics of Point Neurons

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Jeyashree; Porta Mana, PierGianLuca; Helias, Moritz; Diesmann, Markus; Di Napoli, Edoardo

2018-01-01

Spiking neuronal networks are usually simulated with one of three main schemes: the classical time-driven and event-driven schemes, and the more recent hybrid scheme. All three schemes evolve the state of a neuron through a series of checkpoints: equally spaced in the first scheme and determined neuron-wise by spike events in the latter two. The time-driven and the hybrid scheme determine whether the membrane potential of a neuron crosses a threshold at the end of the time interval between consecutive checkpoints. Threshold crossing can, however, occur within the interval even if this test is negative. Spikes can therefore be missed. The present work offers an alternative geometric point of view on neuronal dynamics, and derives, implements, and benchmarks a method for perfect retrospective spike detection. This method can be applied to neuron models with affine or linear subthreshold dynamics. The idea behind the method is to propagate the threshold with a time-inverted dynamics, testing whether the threshold crosses the neuron state to be evolved, rather than vice versa. Algebraically this translates into a set of inequalities necessary and sufficient for threshold crossing. This test is slower than the imperfect one, but can be optimized in several ways. Comparison confirms earlier results that the imperfect tests rarely miss spikes (less than a fraction 1/108 of missed spikes) in biologically relevant settings. PMID:29379430

Longitudinal study of changing psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires.

PubMed

Bryant, Richard A; Gibbs, Lisa; Gallagher, Hugh Colin; Pattison, Phillipa; Lusher, Dean; MacDougall, Colin; Harms, Louise; Block, Karen; Sinnott, Vikki; Ireton, Greg; Richardson, John; Forbes, David

2017-06-01

To map the changing prevalence and predictors of psychological outcomes in affected communities 5 years following the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria. Follow-up assessment of longitudinal cohort study in high, medium and non-affected communities in Victoria, Australia. Participants included 1017 respondents (Wave 1) interviewed via telephone and web-based survey between December 2011 and January 2013, and 735 (76.1%) eligible participants were retested between July and November 2014 (Wave 2). The survey included measures of fire-related and subsequent stressful events, probable posttraumatic stress disorder, major depressive episode, alcohol use and severe distress. There were reduced rates of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (8.7% vs 12.1%), general posttraumatic stress disorder (14.7% vs 18.2%), major depressive episode (9.0% vs 10.9%) and serious mental illness (5.4% vs 7.8%). Rates of resilience increased over time (81.8% vs 77.1%), and problem alcohol use remained high across Wave 1 (22.1%) and Wave 2 (21.4%). The most robust predictor of later development of fire-related posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 2.11; 95% confidence interval: [1.22, 3.65]), general posttraumatic stress disorder (odds ratio: 3.15; 95% confidence interval: [1.98, 5.02]), major depressive episode (odds ratio: 2.86; 95% confidence interval: [1.74, 4.70]), serious mental illness (odds ratio: 2.67; 95% confidence interval: [0.57, 1.72]) or diminished resilience (odds ratio: 2.01; 95% confidence interval: [1.32, 3.05]) was extent of recent life stressors. Although rates of mental health problems diminished over time, they remained higher than national levels. Findings suggest that policy-makers need to recognize that the mental health consequences of disasters can persist for many years after the event and need to allocate resources towards those who are most at risk as a result of substantive losses and ongoing life stressors.

Reasoning about real-time systems with temporal interval logic constraints on multi-state automata

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabrielian, Armen

1991-01-01

Models of real-time systems using a single paradigm often turn out to be inadequate, whether the paradigm is based on states, rules, event sequences, or logic. A model-based approach to reasoning about real-time systems is presented in which a temporal interval logic called TIL is employed to define constraints on a new type of high level automata. The combination, called hierarchical multi-state (HMS) machines, can be used to model formally a real-time system, a dynamic set of requirements, the environment, heuristic knowledge about planning-related problem solving, and the computational states of the reasoning mechanism. In this framework, mathematical techniques were developed for: (1) proving the correctness of a representation; (2) planning of concurrent tasks to achieve goals; and (3) scheduling of plans to satisfy complex temporal constraints. HMS machines allow reasoning about a real-time system from a model of how truth arises instead of merely depending of what is true in a system.

Time functions of deep earthquakes from broadband and short-period stacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houston, H.; Benz, H.M.; Vidale, J.E.

1998-01-01

To constrain dynamic source properties of deep earthquakes, we have systematically constructed broadband time functions of deep earthquakes by stacking and scaling teleseismic P waves from U.S. National Seismic Network, TERRAscope, and Berkeley Digital Seismic Network broadband stations. We examined 42 earthquakes with depths from 100 to 660 km that occurred between July 1, 1992 and July 31, 1995. To directly compare time functions, or to group them by size, depth, or region, it is essential to scale them to remove the effect of moment, which varies by more than 3 orders of magnitude for these events. For each event we also computed short-period stacks of P waves recorded by west coast regional arrays. The comparison of broadband with short-period stacks yields a considerable advantage, enabling more reliable measurement of event duration. A more accurate estimate of the duration better constrains the scaling procedure to remove the effect of moment, producing scaled time functions with both correct timing and amplitude. We find only subtle differences in the broadband time-function shape with moment, indicating successful scaling and minimal effects of attenuation at the periods considered here. The average shape of the envelopes of the short-period stacks is very similar to the average broadband time function. The main variations seen with depth are (1) a mild decrease in duration with increasing depth, (2) greater asymmetry in the time functions of intermediate events compared to deep ones, and (3) unexpected complexity and late moment release for events between 350 and 550 km, with seven of the eight events in that depth interval displaying markedly more complicated time functions with more moment release late in the rupture than most events above or below. The first two results are broadly consistent with our previous studies, while the third is reported here for the first time. The greater complexity between 350 and 550 km suggests greater heterogeneity in the failure process in that depth range. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

Serial recall of colors: Two models of memory for serial order applied to continuous visual stimuli.

PubMed

Peteranderl, Sonja; Oberauer, Klaus

2018-01-01

This study investigated the effects of serial position and temporal distinctiveness on serial recall of simple visual stimuli. Participants observed lists of five colors presented at varying, unpredictably ordered interitem intervals, and their task was to reproduce the colors in their order of presentation by selecting colors on a continuous-response scale. To control for the possibility of verbal labeling, articulatory suppression was required in one of two experimental sessions. The predictions were derived through simulation from two computational models of serial recall: SIMPLE represents the class of temporal-distinctiveness models, whereas SOB-CS represents event-based models. According to temporal-distinctiveness models, items that are temporally isolated within a list are recalled more accurately than items that are temporally crowded. In contrast, event-based models assume that the time intervals between items do not affect recall performance per se, although free time following an item can improve memory for that item because of extended time for the encoding. The experimental and the simulated data were fit to an interference measurement model to measure the tendency to confuse items with other items nearby on the list-the locality constraint-in people as well as in the models. The continuous-reproduction performance showed a pronounced primacy effect with no recency, as well as some evidence for transpositions obeying the locality constraint. Though not entirely conclusive, this evidence favors event-based models over a role for temporal distinctiveness. There was also a strong detrimental effect of articulatory suppression, suggesting that verbal codes can be used to support serial-order memory of simple visual stimuli.

Statistical analysis of severe magnetic fluctuations in the near-Earth plasma sheet observed by THEMIS-E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Heqiucen; Shiokawa, Kazuo; Frühauff, Dennis

2017-10-01

We statistically analyzed severe magnetic fluctuations in the nightside near-Earth plasma sheet at 6-12 RE (Earth radii; 1 RE = 6371 km), because they are important for non-magnetohydrodynamics (non-MHD) effects in the magnetotail and are considered to be necessary for current disruption in the inside-out substorm model. We used magnetic field data from 2013 and 2014 obtained by the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms E (THEMIS-E) satellite (sampling rate: 4 Hz). A total of 1283 severe magnetic fluctuation events were identified that satisfied the criteria σB/B > 0. 5, where σB and B are the standard deviation and the average value of magnetic field intensity during the time interval of the local proton gyroperiod, respectively. We found that the occurrence rates of severe fluctuation events are 0.00118, 0.00899, and 0.0238 % at 6-8, 8-10, and 10-12 RE, respectively, and most events last for no more than 15 s. From these occurrence rates, we estimated the possible scale sizes of current disruption by severe magnetic fluctuations as 3.83 RE3 by assuming that four substorms with 5 min intervals of current disruption occur every day. The fluctuation events occurred most frequently at the ZGSM (Z distance in the geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system) close to the model neutral sheet within 0.2 RE. Most events occur in association with sudden decreases in the auroral electrojet lower (AL) index and magnetic field dipolarization, indicating that they are related to substorms. Sixty-two percent of magnetic fluctuation events were accompanied by ion flow with velocity V > 100 km s-1, indicating that the violation of ion gyromotion tends to occur during high-speed flow in the near-Earth plasma sheet. The superposed epoch analysis also indicated that the flow speed increases before the severe magnetic fluctuations. We discuss how both the inside-out and outside-in substorm models can explain this increase in flow speeds before magnetic fluctuation events.

The Statistical Studies of 0.5-100 keV Electrons Near The ICME-drivens At 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, W.; Wang, L.; Li, G.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C. Y.; Bale, S. D.

2017-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the 0.5 - 100 keV electrons near the ICME-driven shocks at 1 AU, using the WIND/3DP electron measurements from 1995 to 2014. We select 74 good ICME-driven shocks, and use the "Rankine-Hugoniot" shock fitting technique to obtain the shock normal, θBn, magnetic compression ratio rB, and magnetosonic Mach number Ms. After averaging the electron data in the 10-minute interval immediately after the shock to obtain the sheath electron fluxes, Jsheath, and in the 2-hour quiet-time interval before the shock to obtain the pre-event electron fluxes, Jpre-event, we calculate the flux ratio, α, of Jsheath over Jpre-event. We find that, in the 59 quasi-perpendicular shocks, both Jsheath and Jpre-event are positively correlated with Ms and α is positively correlated with rB. In the 15 quasi-parallel cases, α is positively correlated with Ms, while neither Jsheath nor Jpre-event has any correlation with the shock parameters. Furthermore, we find that both the pre-event and sheath electron fluxes generally fit well to a double power-law spectrum, . At 0.5 - 2 keV, the fitted spectral index β1 ranges from 2.1 to 5.9, and it becomes larger in the sheah than in the pre-event in nearly a half of the 74 cases and remains the same in the other half of the cases. At 2 - 100 keV, the fitted index β2 ranges from 1.9 to 3.4, similar to the spectral indexes of solar wind superhalo electrons at quiet times (Wang et al., 2015). And β2 becomes larger in the sheah than in the pre-event in over half of the cases. In addition, neither β1 nor β2 is consistent with the diffusive shock theoretical predication. These results suggest that the shock drift acceleration may play a more important role in electron acceleration than the diffusive shock acceleration near 1 AU, and the interplanetary shock acceleration can contribute to the production of solar wind superhalo electrons.

Assessing Adverse Events of Postprostatectomy Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Outcomes in the Regione Emilia-Romagna, Italy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Showalter, Timothy N., E-mail: tns3b@virginia.edu; Hegarty, Sarah E.; Division of Biostatistics, Department of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Purpose: Although the likelihood of radiation-related adverse events influences treatment decisions regarding radiation therapy after prostatectomy for eligible patients, the data available to inform decisions are limited. This study was designed to evaluate the genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and sexual adverse events associated with postprostatectomy radiation therapy and to assess the influence of radiation timing on the risk of adverse events. Methods: The Regione Emilia-Romagna Italian Longitudinal Health Care Utilization Database was queried to identify a cohort of men who received radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer during 2003 to 2009, including patients who received postprostatectomy radiation therapy. Patients with prior radiation therapymore » were excluded. Outcome measures were genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and sexual adverse events after prostatectomy. Rates of adverse events were compared between the cohorts who did and did not receive postoperative radiation therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed for each class of adverse events, including models with radiation therapy as a time-varying covariate. Results: A total of 9876 men were included in the analyses: 2176 (22%) who received radiation therapy and 7700 (78%) treated with prostatectomy alone. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, the additional exposure to radiation therapy after prostatectomy was associated with increased rates of gastrointestinal (rate ratio [RR] 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.27; P<.001) and urinary nonincontinence events (RR 1.83; 95% CI 1.83-2.80; P<.001) but not urinary incontinence events or erectile dysfunction. The addition of the time from prostatectomy to radiation therapy interaction term was not significant for any of the adverse event outcomes (P>.1 for all outcomes). Conclusion: Radiation therapy after prostatectomy is associated with an increase in gastrointestinal and genitourinary adverse events. However, the timing of radiation therapy did not influence the risk of radiation therapy–associated adverse events in this cohort, which contradicts the commonly held clinical tenet that delaying radiation therapy reduces the risk of adverse events.« less

Long-term (>3 Years) outcome and predictors of clinical events after insertion of sirolimus-eluting stent in one or more native coronary arteries (from the Israeli arm of the e-Cypher registry).

PubMed

Planer, David; Beyar, Rafael; Almagor, Yaron; Banai, Shmuel; Guetta, Victor; Miller, Hilton; Kornowski, Ran; Brandes, Simcha; Krakover, Ricardo; Solomon, Mivi; Lotan, Chaim

2008-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term (3.4 years) outcomes and predictors of clinical events in patients treated with sirolimus-eluting stents in the Israeli arm of the e-Cypher registry. From July 2002 to October 2003, 488 patients from 8 medical centers in Israel were enrolled in the e-Cypher registry. Nineteen patients with interventions in venous grafts were excluded from the final analysis. Long-term follow-up was completed for 98% of the remaining patients. There were 29 cases (6.3%) of death (3.9% cardiac and 2.4% noncardiac deaths). According to the broad academic research consortium definition of stent thrombosis, there were 19 cases (4%) of stent thrombosis (incidence density 0.9 cases/100 patient-years). There were 46 cases (9.9%) of target lesion revascularization and 76 cases (16.3%) of major adverse cardiac events (combination of death, myocardial infarction, and target lesion revascularization). Independent predictors of stent thrombosis were renal failure (hazard ratio 9.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9 to 47), stent length (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1 to 1.2), and the off-label use of sirolimus-eluting stents (hazard ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 24). In conclusion, during >3 years of follow-up, stent thrombosis, major adverse cardiac events, and target lesion revascularization continued at constant rates over time. Clinical parameters such as renal failure and procedural parameters such as off-label use and stent length were independent predictors of stent thrombosis.

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, Mosalam

Empirical estimation of the arrival time of ICME Shocks Mosalam Shaltout1 ,M.Youssef 1and R.Mawad2 1 National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) ,Helwan -Cairo-Egypt Email: mosalamshaltout@hotmail.com 2 Faculty of Science-Monifiia University-Physics Department-Shiben Al-Koum -Monifiia-Egypt We are got the Data of the SSC events from Preliminary Reports of the ISGI (Institut de Physique du Globe, France) .Also we are selected the same CME interval 1996-2005 from SOHO/LASCO/C2.We have estimated the arrival time of ICME shocks during solar cycle 23rd (1996-2005), we take the Sudden storm commencement SSC as a indicator of the arrival of CMEs at the Earth's Magnetosphere (ICME).Under our model ,we selected 203 ICME shock-SSC associated events, we got an imperial relation between CME velocity and their travel time, from which we obtained high correlation between them, R=0.75.

A probabilistic Poisson-based model accounts for an extensive set of absolute auditory threshold measurements.

PubMed

Heil, Peter; Matysiak, Artur; Neubauer, Heinrich

2017-09-01

Thresholds for detecting sounds in quiet decrease with increasing sound duration in every species studied. The neural mechanisms underlying this trade-off, often referred to as temporal integration, are not fully understood. Here, we probe the human auditory system with a large set of tone stimuli differing in duration, shape of the temporal amplitude envelope, duration of silent gaps between bursts, and frequency. Duration was varied by varying the plateau duration of plateau-burst (PB) stimuli, the duration of the onsets and offsets of onset-offset (OO) stimuli, and the number of identical bursts of multiple-burst (MB) stimuli. Absolute thresholds for a large number of ears (>230) were measured using a 3-interval-3-alternative forced choice (3I-3AFC) procedure. Thresholds decreased with increasing sound duration in a manner that depended on the temporal envelope. Most commonly, thresholds for MB stimuli were highest followed by thresholds for OO and PB stimuli of corresponding durations. Differences in the thresholds for MB and OO stimuli and in the thresholds for MB and PB stimuli, however, varied widely across ears, were negative in some ears, and were tightly correlated. We show that the variation and correlation of MB-OO and MB-PB threshold differences are linked to threshold microstructure, which affects the relative detectability of the sidebands of the MB stimuli and affects estimates of the bandwidth of auditory filters. We also found that thresholds for MB stimuli increased with increasing duration of the silent gaps between bursts. We propose a new model and show that it accurately accounts for our results and does so considerably better than a leaky-integrator-of-intensity model and a probabilistic model proposed by others. Our model is based on the assumption that sensory events are generated by a Poisson point process with a low rate in the absence of stimulation and higher, time-varying rates in the presence of stimulation. A subject in a 3I-3AFC task is assumed to choose the interval in which the greatest number of events occurred or randomly chooses among intervals which are tied for the greatest number of events. The subject is further assumed to count events over the duration of an evaluation interval that has the same timing and duration as the expected stimulus. The increase in the rate of the events caused by stimulation is proportional to the time-varying amplitude envelope of the bandpass-filtered signal raised to an exponent. We find the exponent to be about 3, consistent with our previous studies. This challenges models that are based on the assumption of the integration of a neural response that is directly proportional to the stimulus amplitude or proportional to its square (i.e., proportional to the stimulus intensity or power). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigozo, Nivaor Rodolfo; Lisi, Cláudio Sergio; Filho, Mário Tomazello; Prestes, Alan; Nordemann, Daniel Jean Roger; de Souza Echer, Mariza Pereira; Echer, Ezequiel; da Silva, Heitor Evangelista; Rigozo, Valderez F.

2012-12-01

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaitá in Amazônia State, Porto Ferreira in São Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22 years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2-8 years, possibly related to El Niño events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5 years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4-8 years.

The evolution of diversity in ancient ecosystems: a review

PubMed Central

Morris, S. Conway

1998-01-01

On a perfect planet, such as might be acceptable to a physicist, one might predict that from its origin the diversity of life would grow exponentially until the carrying capacity, however defined, was reached. The fossil record of the Earth, however, tells a very different story. One of the most striking aspects of this record is the apparent evolutionary longueur, marked by the Precambrian record of prokaryotes and primitive eukaryotes, although our estimates of microbial diversity may be seriously incomplete. Subsequently there were various dramatic increases in diversity, including the Cambrian 'explosion' and the radiation of Palaeozoic-style faunas in the Ordovician. The causes of these events are far from resolved. It has also long been appreciated that the history of diversity has been punctuated by important extinctions. The subtleties and nuances of extinction as well as the survival of particular clades have to date, however, received rather too little attention, and there is still a tendency towards blanket assertions rather than a dissection of these extraordinary events. In addition, some but perhaps not all mass extinctions are characterized by long lag-times of recovery, which may reflect the slowing waning of extrinsic forcing factors or alternatively the incoherence associated with biological reassembly of stable ecosystems. The intervening periods between the identified mass extinctions may be less stable and benign than popularly thought, and in particular the frequency of extraterrestrial impacts leads to predictions of recurrent disturbance on timescales significantly shorter than the intervals separating the largest extinction events. Even at times of quietude it is far from clear whether biological communities enjoy stability and interlocked stasis or are dynamically reconstituted at regular intervals. Finally, can we yet rely on the present depictions of the rise and falls in the levels of ancient diversity? Existing data is almost entirely based on Linnean taxa, and the application of phylogenetic systematics to this problem is still in its infancy. Not only that, but even more intriguingly the pronounced divergence in estimates of origination times of groups as diverse as angiosperms, diatoms and mammals in terms of the fossil record as against molecular data point to the possibilities of protracted intervals of geological time with a cryptic diversity. If this is correct, and there are alternative explanations, then some of the mystery of adaptive radiations may be dispelled, in as much as the assembly of key features in the stem groups could be placed in a gradualistic framework of local adaptive response punctuated by intervals of opportunity.

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time. Furthermore, within a suitable time period, flood classes and other quantifiable indicators of flood intensity (number of damaged locations mentioned in historical sources, general availability of reports associated with a specific event) were combined with available peak discharges measurements. We argue that this information can be considered as 'expert knowledge' and used it to develop a fuzzy rule based model for deriving peak discharge estimates of pre-instrumental events that can finally be introduced into a flood frequency analysis.

Early blood pressure lowering treatment in acute stroke. Ordinal analysis of vascular events in the Scandinavian Candesartan Acute Stroke Trial (SCAST).

PubMed

Jusufovic, Mirza; Sandset, Else Charlotte; Bath, Philip M; Berge, Eivind

2016-08-01

Early blood pressure-lowering treatment appears to be beneficial in patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage and potentially in ischaemic stroke. We used a new method for analysis of vascular events in the Scandinavian Candesartan Acute Stroke Trial to see if the effect was dependent on the timing of treatment. Scandinavian Candesartan Acute Stroke Trial was a randomized controlled and placebo-controlled trial of candesartan within 30 h of ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke. Of 2029 patients, 231 (11.4%) had a vascular event (vascular death, nonfatal stroke or nonfatal myocardial infarction) during the first 6 months. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score following a vascular event was used to categorize vascular events in order of severity: no event (n = 1798), minor (mRS 0-2, n = 59), moderately severe (mRS 3-4, n = 57) and major event (mRS 5-6, n = 115). We used ordinal logistic regression for analysis and adjusted for predefined prognostic variables. Candesartan had no overall effect on vascular events (adjusted common odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.84-1.47, P = 0.48), and the effects were the same in ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Among the patients treated within 6 h, the adjusted common odds ratio for vascular events was 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.84, P = 0.02, and there was no heterogeneity of effect between ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes. Ordinal analysis of vascular events showed no overall effect of candesartan in the subacute phase of stroke. The effect of treatment given within 6 h of stroke onset appears promising, and will be addressed in ongoing trials. Ordinal analysis of vascular events is feasible and can be used in future trials.

Flood Study of Warren Brook in Alstead and Cold River in Alstead, Langdon, and Walpole, New Hampshire, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2006-01-01

This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles as determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady flow water-surface profiles were developed for two stream reaches: the Cold River from its confluence with the Connecticut River in Walpole, through Alstead to the McDermott Bridge in Langdon, NH, and Warren Brook from its confluence with the Cold River to Warren Lake in Alstead, NH. Flood events of a magnitude, which are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 10-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval), were modeled using HEC-RAS as these flood events are recognized as being significant for flood-plain management, determination of flood insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. These flood events are referred to as the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The recurrence intervals represent the long-term average between floods of a specific magnitude. The risk of experiencing rare floods at short intervals or within the same year increases when periods greater than one year are considered. The analyses in this study reflect the flooding potentials based on conditions existing in the communities of Walpole, Alstead and Langdon at the time of completion of this study.

Sensitivity of diabetic retinopathy associated vision loss to screening interval in an agent-based/discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Day, T Eugene; Ravi, Nathan; Xian, Hong; Brugh, Ann

2014-04-01

To examine the effect of changes to screening interval on the incidence of vision loss in a simulated cohort of Veterans with diabetic retinopathy (DR). This simulation allows us to examine potential interventions without putting patients at risk. Simulated randomized controlled trial. We develop a hybrid agent-based/discrete event simulation which incorporates a population of simulated Veterans--using abstracted data from a retrospective cohort of real-world diabetic Veterans--with a discrete event simulation (DES) eye clinic at which it seeks treatment for DR. We compare vision loss under varying screening policies, in a simulated population of 5000 Veterans over 50 independent ten-year simulation runs for each group. Diabetic Retinopathy associated vision loss increased as the screening interval was extended from one to five years (p<0.0001). This increase was concentrated in the third year of the screening interval (p<0.01). There was no increase in vision loss associated with increasing the screening interval from one year to two years (p=0.98). Increasing the screening interval for diabetic patients who have not yet developed diabetic retinopathy from 1 to 2 years appears safe, while increasing the interval to 3 years heightens risk for vision loss. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal prediction restores the evaluative processing of delayed action feedback: an electrophysiological study.

PubMed

Kimura, Kenta; Kimura, Motohiro

2016-09-28

The evaluative processing of the valence of action feedback is reflected by an event-related brain potential component called feedback-related negativity (FRN) or reward positivity (RewP). Recent studies have shown that FRN/RewP is markedly reduced when the action-feedback interval is long (e.g. 6000 ms), indicating that an increase in the action-feedback interval can undermine the evaluative processing of the valence of action feedback. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether or not such undermined evaluative processing of delayed action feedback could be restored by improving the accuracy of the prediction in terms of the timing of action feedback. With a typical gambling task in which the participant chose one of two cards and received an action feedback indicating monetary gain or loss, the present study showed that FRN/RewP was significantly elicited even when the action-feedback interval was 6000 ms, when an auditory stimulus sequence was additionally presented during the action-feedback interval as a temporal cue. This result suggests that the undermined evaluative processing of delayed action feedback can be restored by increasing the accuracy of the prediction on the timing of the action feedback.

Self-organized criticality in complex systems: Applicability to the interoccurrent and recurrent statistical behavior of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, Sergey G.

The concept of self-organized criticality is associated with scale-invariant, fractal behavior; this concept is also applicable to earthquake systems. It is known that the interoccurrent frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in a region is scale-invariant and obeys the Gutenberg-Richter power-law dependence. Also, the interoccurrent time-interval distribution is known to obey Poissonian statistics excluding aftershocks. However, to estimate the hazard risk for a region it is necessary to know also the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault. This behavior has been investigated in the literature, however, major questions remain unresolved. The reason is the small number of earthquakes in observed sequences. To overcome this difficulty this research utilizes numerical simulations of a slider-block model and a sand-pile model. Also, experimental observations of creep events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault are processed and sequences up to 100 events are studied. Then the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault or at a given fault is investigated. It is shown that both the recurrent frequency-size and the time-interval behaviors of earthquakes obey the Weibull distribution.

Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in proton–proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}= 8\\,\\text {TeV} $$

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2015-04-11

A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any proton–proton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6 fb -1 of 8 TeV proton–proton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2 +3.6 -2.5 events.more » Limits are presented at 95 % confidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ≤1000 GeV and a top squark with mass ≤525 GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 µs and 1000 s. Finally, these results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.« less

Supporting Beacon and Event-Driven Messages in Vehicular Platoons through Token-Based Strategies

PubMed Central

Uhlemann, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Timely and reliable inter-vehicle communications is a critical requirement to support traffic safety applications, such as vehicle platooning. Furthermore, low-delay communications allow the platoon to react quickly to unexpected events. In this scope, having a predictable and highly effective medium access control (MAC) method is of utmost importance. However, the currently available IEEE 802.11p technology is unable to adequately address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a MAC method especially adapted to platoons, able to transmit beacons within the required time constraints, but with a higher reliability level than IEEE 802.11p, while concurrently enabling efficient dissemination of event-driven messages. The protocol circulates the token within the platoon not in a round-robin fashion, but based on beacon data age, i.e., the time that has passed since the previous collection of status information, thereby automatically offering repeated beacon transmission opportunities for increased reliability. In addition, we propose three different methods for supporting event-driven messages co-existing with beacons. Analysis and simulation results in single and multi-hop scenarios showed that, by providing non-competitive channel access and frequent retransmission opportunities, our protocol can offer beacon delivery within one beacon generation interval while fulfilling the requirements on low-delay dissemination of event-driven messages for traffic safety applications. PMID:29570676

Supporting Beacon and Event-Driven Messages in Vehicular Platoons through Token-Based Strategies.

PubMed

Balador, Ali; Uhlemann, Elisabeth; Calafate, Carlos T; Cano, Juan-Carlos

2018-03-23

Timely and reliable inter-vehicle communications is a critical requirement to support traffic safety applications, such as vehicle platooning. Furthermore, low-delay communications allow the platoon to react quickly to unexpected events. In this scope, having a predictable and highly effective medium access control (MAC) method is of utmost importance. However, the currently available IEEE 802.11p technology is unable to adequately address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a MAC method especially adapted to platoons, able to transmit beacons within the required time constraints, but with a higher reliability level than IEEE 802.11p, while concurrently enabling efficient dissemination of event-driven messages. The protocol circulates the token within the platoon not in a round-robin fashion, but based on beacon data age, i.e., the time that has passed since the previous collection of status information, thereby automatically offering repeated beacon transmission opportunities for increased reliability. In addition, we propose three different methods for supporting event-driven messages co-existing with beacons. Analysis and simulation results in single and multi-hop scenarios showed that, by providing non-competitive channel access and frequent retransmission opportunities, our protocol can offer beacon delivery within one beacon generation interval while fulfilling the requirements on low-delay dissemination of event-driven messages for traffic safety applications.

The impact of endocrine supplementation on adverse events in septic shock.

PubMed

Bissell, Brittany D; Erdman, Michael J; Smotherman, Carmen; Kraemer, Dale F; Ferreira, Jason A

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to compare the incidence of severe adverse events of vasopressin vs hydrocortisone for endocrine support therapy in patients with septic shock. This was a retrospective, propensity-matched cohort of patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit with septic shock between February 2012 and February 2015. Patients were included if vasopressin or hydrocortisone was administered for hemodynamic support secondary to norepinephrine. In the unmatched cohort of 124 patients, vasopressin was associated with a significant decrease in the number of severe adverse events (P=.03). In the matched cohort, severe adverse events occurred 3 times as often in patients receiving hydrocortisone; however, this difference was not statistically significant. (odds ratio, 3.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-12.11; P=.06). In the matched cohort, vasopressin was associated with a faster time to hemodynamic stability (P<.05) and discontinuation of hemodynamic support (P<.01) with an increased requirement for third-line therapy (P<.01). No statistical differences were seen in length of stay (intensive care unit and hospital), length of mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. Given the lower incidence of adverse events and faster time to hemodynamic stability, vasopressin appears to be the most advantageous endocrine agent for hemodynamic support in septic shock. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major episodes of geologic change - Correlations, time structure and possible causes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.; Caldeira, Ken

1993-01-01

Published data sets of major geologic events of the past about 250 Myr (extinction events, sea-level lows, continental flood-basalt eruptions, mountain-building events, abrupt changes in sea-floor spreading, ocean-anoxic and blackshale events and the largest evaporite deposits) have been synthesized (with estimated errors). These events show evidence for a statistically significant periodic component with an underlying periodicity, formally equal to 26.6 Myr, and a recent maximum, close to the present time. The cycle may not be strictly periodic, but a periodicity of about 30 Myr is robust to probable errors in dating of the geologic events. The intervals of geologic change seem to involve jumps in sea-floor spreading associated with episodic continental rifting, volcanism, enhanced orogeny, global sea-level changes and fluctuations in climate. The period may represent a purely internal earth-pulsation, but evidence of planetesimal impacts at several extinction boundaries, and a possible underlying cycle of 28-36 Myr in crater ages, suggests that highly energetic impacts may be affecting global tectonics. A cyclic increase in the flux of planetesimals might result from the passage of the Solar System through the central plane of the Milky Way Galaxy - an event with a periodicity and mean phasing similar to that detected in the geologic changes.

Effort Gains in Occupational Teams – The Effects of Social Competition and Social Indispensability

PubMed Central

Hertel, Guido; Nohe, Christoph; Wessolowski, Katrin; Meltz, Oliver; Pape, Justina C.; Fink, Jonas; Hüffmeier, Joachim

2018-01-01

Laboratory research has demonstrated social competition and social indispensability as potential triggers of effort gains in teams as compared to working alone. However, it is unclear whether such effects are also relevant for existing occupational teams, collaborating for longer time intervals and achieving meaningful outcomes. We assumed that social indispensability effects are prevalent and stable in occupational teams, whereas social competition effects should mainly be effective in the beginning of teamwork and fade out over time. Hypotheses were confirmed in two studies using within-subjects designs with employees recruited via an online panel (Study 1, N = 137) and in software development companies (Study 2, N = 70). By means of the Event Reconstruction Method, participants re-experienced specific events from past working days (three events working alone, three teamwork events), and rated their effort separately for these events. In both studies, multilevel analyses revealed significant effort gains in teams when event-specific social indispensability was high. These effects were mediated by positive mood and perceived task meaningfulness, and additionally qualified by employees’ preference for teamwork. In contrast, motivating effects due to event-specific social competition were only observed for teams with short as compared to long team tenure in Study 2. PMID:29872412

Causal relations among events and states in dynamic geographical phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhaoqiang; Feng, Xuezhi; Xuan, Wenling; Chen, Xiuwan

2007-06-01

There is only a static state of the real world to be recorded in conventional geographical information systems. However, there is not only static information but also dynamic information in geographical phenomena. So that how to record the dynamic information and reveal the relations among dynamic information is an important issue in a spatio-temporal information system. From an ontological perspective, we can initially divide the spatio-temporal entities in the world into continuants and occurrents. Continuant entities endure through some extended (although possibly very short) interval of time (e.g., houses, roads, cities, and real-estate). Occurrent entities happen and are then gone (e.g., a house repair job, road construction project, urban expansion, real-estate transition). From an information system perspective, continuants and occurrents that have a unique identity in the system are referred to as objects and events, respectively. And the change is represented implicitly by static snapshots in current spatial temporal information systems. In the previous models, the objects can be considered as the fundamental components of the system, and the change is modeled by considering time-varying attributes of these objects. In the spatio-temporal database, the temporal information that is either interval or instant is involved and the underlying data structures and indexes for temporal are considerable investigated. However, there is the absence of explicit ways of considering events, which affect the attributes of objects or the state. So the research issue of this paper focuses on how to model events in conceptual models of dynamic geographical phenomena and how to represent the causal relations among events and the objects or states. Firstly, the paper reviews the conceptual modeling in a temporal GIS by researchers. Secondly, this paper discusses the spatio-temporal entities: objects and events. Thirdly, this paper investigates the causal relations amongst events and states. The qualitative spatiotemporal change is an important issue in the dynamic geographic-scale phenomena. In real estate transition, the events and states are needed to be represented explicitly. In our modeling the evolution of a dynamic system, it can not avoid fetching in the view of causality. The object's transition is represented by the state of object. Event causes the state of objects changing and causes other events happen. Events connect with objects closely. The basic causal relations are the state-event and event-state relationships. Lastly, the paper concludes with the overview about the causal relations amongst events and states. And this future work is pointed.

Music, clicks, and their imaginations favor differently the event-based timing component for rhythmic movements.

PubMed

Bravi, Riccardo; Quarta, Eros; Del Tongo, Claudia; Carbonaro, Nicola; Tognetti, Alessandro; Minciacchi, Diego

2015-06-01

The involvement or noninvolvement of a clock-like neural process, an effector-independent representation of the time intervals to produce, is described as the essential difference between event-based and emergent timing. In a previous work (Bravi et al. in Exp Brain Res 232:1663-1675, 2014a. doi: 10.1007/s00221-014-3845-9 ), we studied repetitive isochronous wrist's flexion-extensions (IWFEs), performed while minimizing visual and tactile information, to clarify whether non-temporal and temporal characteristics of paced auditory stimuli affect the precision and accuracy of the rhythmic motor performance. Here, with the inclusion of new recordings, we expand the examination of the dataset described in our previous study to investigate whether simple and complex paced auditory stimuli (clicks and music) and their imaginations influence in a different way the timing mechanisms for repetitive IWFEs. Sets of IWFEs were analyzed by the windowed (lag one) autocorrelation-wγ(1), a statistical method recently introduced for the distinction between event-based and emergent timing. Our findings provide evidence that paced auditory information and its imagination favor the engagement of a clock-like neural process, and specifically that music, unlike clicks, lacks the power to elicit event-based timing, not counteracting the natural shift of wγ(1) toward positive values as frequency of movements increase.

Retrospective study evaluating dose standards for infliximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis at Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Scheinberg, Morton; Goldenberg, José; Feldman, Daniel P; Nóbrega, João Luiz

2008-08-01

We determined, in our surrounding environment, the proportion of patients being treated with infliximab who required a therapeutic scheme escalation (an infliximab dose increase surpassing the level of 3 mg/kg every 8 weeks and/or a decrease on the current between infusions' interval). This was a study of the retrospective analysis of data from the 41 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients receiving an infliximab therapy at the Albert Einstein Israelita Hospital, from January 2001 up to December 2005. A questionnaire was applied to these patients, assessing their clinical and laboratory data, adverse events, and individual information regarding the infliximab administration. Therapeutic dose information was available in 68% (28/41) of the RA patients, with 46% of these (13/28) receiving a dose increase, and 30% (8/27) experiencing a shortening of the between infusions' interval. The average final infliximab dose (4.21 mg/kg) was significantly greater than their average initial dose (3.29 mg/kg). The average time intervals between the initial and final infusions, though shortened, were not significantly different. A proportion of 73% (30/41) of these patients demonstrated improvement in at least one of the assessed clinical parameters, and 50% of these patients (15/30) experienced a dose increase, while 20% (6/30) experienced shortening of the between treatments' interval. A total of 20% (8/41) of the original patients experienced adverse events. Although infliximab is effective in the control of RA, dose adjustment and/or shortening of the between treatments' interval is frequently required.

Time-Lapse Video Microscopy for Assessment of EYFP-Parkin Aggregation as a Marker for Cellular Mitophagy

PubMed Central

Di Sante, Gabriele; Casimiro, Mathew C.; Pestell, Timothy G.; Pestell, Richard G.

2016-01-01

Time-lapse video microscopy can be defined as the real time imaging of living cells. This technique relies on the collection of images at different time points. Time intervals can be set through a computer interface that controls the microscope-integrated camera. This kind of microscopy requires both the ability to acquire very rapid events and the signal generated by the observed cellular structure during these events. After the images have been collected, a movie of the entire experiment is assembled to show the dynamic of the molecular events of interest. Time-lapse video microscopy has a broad range of applications in the biomedical research field and is a powerful and unique tool for following the dynamics of the cellular events in real time. Through this technique, we can assess cellular events such as migration, division, signal transduction, growth, and death. Moreover, using fluorescent molecular probes we are able to mark specific molecules, such as DNA, RNA or proteins and follow them through their molecular pathways and functions. Time-lapse video microscopy has multiple advantages, the major one being the ability to collect data at the single-cell level, that make it a unique technology for investigation in the field of cell biology. However, time-lapse video microscopy has limitations that can interfere with the acquisition of high quality images. Images can be compromised by both external factors; temperature fluctuations, vibrations, humidity and internal factors; pH, cell motility. Herein, we describe a protocol for the dynamic acquisition of a specific protein, Parkin, fused with the enhanced yellow fluorescent protein (EYFP) in order to track the selective removal of damaged mitochondria, using a time-lapse video microscopy approach. PMID:27168174

Time-Lapse Video Microscopy for Assessment of EYFP-Parkin Aggregation as a Marker for Cellular Mitophagy.

PubMed

Di Sante, Gabriele; Casimiro, Mathew C; Pestell, Timothy G; Pestell, Richard G

2016-05-04

Time-lapse video microscopy can be defined as the real time imaging of living cells. This technique relies on the collection of images at different time points. Time intervals can be set through a computer interface that controls the microscope-integrated camera. This kind of microscopy requires both the ability to acquire very rapid events and the signal generated by the observed cellular structure during these events. After the images have been collected, a movie of the entire experiment is assembled to show the dynamic of the molecular events of interest. Time-lapse video microscopy has a broad range of applications in the biomedical research field and is a powerful and unique tool for following the dynamics of the cellular events in real time. Through this technique, we can assess cellular events such as migration, division, signal transduction, growth, and death. Moreover, using fluorescent molecular probes we are able to mark specific molecules, such as DNA, RNA or proteins and follow them through their molecular pathways and functions. Time-lapse video microscopy has multiple advantages, the major one being the ability to collect data at the single-cell level, that make it a unique technology for investigation in the field of cell biology. However, time-lapse video microscopy has limitations that can interfere with the acquisition of high quality images. Images can be compromised by both external factors; temperature fluctuations, vibrations, humidity and internal factors; pH, cell motility. Herein, we describe a protocol for the dynamic acquisition of a specific protein, Parkin, fused with the enhanced yellow fluorescent protein (EYFP) in order to track the selective removal of damaged mitochondria, using a time-lapse video microscopy approach.

The climatic characteristics of extreme precipitations for short-term intervals in the watershed of Lake Maggiore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saidi, Helmi; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia; Ghiglieri, Giorgio

2013-07-01

Alpine and Mediterranean areas are undergoing a profound change in the typology and distribution of rainfall. In particular, there has been an increase in consecutive non-rainy days, and an escalation of extreme rainy events. The climatic characteristic of extreme precipitations over short-term intervals is an object of study in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, the second largest freshwater basin in Italy (located in the north-west of the country) and an important resource for tourism, fishing and commercial flower growing. The historical extreme rainfall series with high-resolution from 5 to 45 min and above: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h collected at different gauges located at representative sites in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, have been computed to perform regional frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation based on the L-moments approach, and to produce growth curves for different return-period rainfall events. Because of different rainfall-generating mechanisms in the watershed of Lake Maggiore such as elevation, no single parent distribution could be found for the entire study area. This paper concerns an investigation designed to give a first view of the temporal change and evolution of annual maxima precipitation, focusing particularly on both heavy and extreme events recorded at time intervals ranging from few minutes to 24 h and also to create and develop an extreme storm precipitation database, starting from historical sub-daily precipitation series distributed over the territory. There have been two-part changes in extreme rainfall events occurrence in the last 23 years from 1987 to 2009. Little change is observed in 720 min and 24-h precipitations, but the change seen in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180 and 360 min events is significant. In fact, during the 2000s, growth curves have flattened and annual maxima have decreased.

Biotic immigration events, speciation, and the accumulation of biodiversity in the fossil record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stigall, Alycia L.; Bauer, Jennifer E.; Lam, Adriane R.; Wright, David F.

2017-01-01

Biotic Immigration Events (BIMEs) record the large-scale dispersal of taxa from one biogeographic area to another and have significantly impacted biodiversity throughout geologic time. BIMEs associated with biodiversity increases have been linked to ecologic and evolutionary processes including niche partitioning, species packing, and higher speciation rates. Yet substantial biodiversity decline has also been documented following BIMEs due to elevated extinction and/or reduced speciation rates. In this review, we develop a conceptual model for biodiversity accumulation that links BIMEs and geographic isolation with local (α) diversity, regional (β) diversity, and global (γ) diversity metrics. Within the model, BIME intervals are characterized by colonization of existing species within new geographic regions and a lack of successful speciation events. Thus, there is no change in γ-diversity, and α-diversity increases at the cost of β-diversity. An interval of regional isolation follows in which lineage splitting results in successful speciation events and diversity increases across all three metrics. Alternation of these two regimes can result in substantial biodiversity accumulation. We tested this conceptual model using a series of case studies from the paleontological record. We primarily focus on two intervals during the Middle through Late Ordovician Period (470-458 Ma): the globally pervasive BIMEs during the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE) and a regional BIME, the Richmondian Invasion. We further test the conceptual model by examining the Great Devonian Interchange, Neogene mollusk migrations and diversification, and the Great American Biotic Interchange. Paleontological data accord well with model predictions. Constraining the mechanisms of biodiversity accumulation provides context for conservation biology. Because α-, β-, and γ-diversity are semi-independent, different techniques should be considered for sustaining various diversity partitions. Maintaining natural migration routes and population sizes among isolated regions are vital to preserving both extant biodiversity and biogeographic pathways requisite for future diversity generation.

Ca, Sr, Mo and U isotopes evidence ocean acidification and deoxygenation during the Late Permian mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Tamayo, Juan Carlos; Payne, Jon; Wignall, Paul; Newton, Rob; Eisenhauer, Anton; Weyer, Stenfan; Neubert, Nadja; Lau, Kim; Maher, Kate; Paytan, Adina; Lehrmann, Dan; Altiner, Demir; Yu, Meiyi

2014-05-01

The most catastrophic extinction event in the history of animal life occurred at the end of the Permian Period, ca. 252 Mya. Ocean acidification and global oceanic euxinia have each been proposed as causes of this biotic crisis, but the magnitude and timing of change in global ocean chemistry remains poorly constrained. Here we use multiple isotope systems - Ca, Sr, Mo and U - measured from well dated Upper Permian- Lower Triassic sedimentary sections to better constrain the magnitude and timing of change in ocean chemistry and the effects of ocean acidification and de-oxygenation through this interval. All the investigated carbonate successions (Turkey, Italy and China) exhibit decreasing δ44/40Ca compositions, from ~-1.4‰ to -2.0‰ in the interval preceding the main extinction. These values remain low during most of the Griesbachian, to finally return to -1.4‰ in the middle Dienerian. The limestone succession from southern Turkey also displays a major decrease in the δ88/86Sr values from 0.45‰ to 0.3‰ before the extinction. These values remain low during the Griesbachian and finally increase to 0.55‰ by the middle Dienerian. The paired negative anomalies on the carbonate δ44/40Ca and δ88/86Sr suggest a decrease in the carbonate precipitation and thus an episode of ocean acidification coincident with the major biotic crisis. The Mo and U isotope records also exhibit significant rapid negative anomalies at the onset of the main extinction interval, suggesting rapid expansion of anoxic and euxinic marine bottom waters during the extinction interval. The rapidity of the isotope excursions in Mo and U suggests substantially reduced residence times of these elements in seawater relative to the modern, consistent with expectations for a time of widespread anoxia. The large C-isotope variability within Lower Triassic rocks, which is similar to that of the Lower-Middle Cambrian, may reflect biologically controlled perturbations of the oceanic carbon cycle. These findings strengthen the evidence for a global ocean acidification event coupled with rapid expansion of anoxic zones as drivers of end-Permian extinction in the oceans.

Coupling between perception and action timing during sensorimotor synchronization.

PubMed

Serrien, Deborah J; Spapé, Michiel M

2010-12-17

Time is an important parameter in behaviour, especially when synchronization with external events is required. To evaluate the nature of the association between perception and action timing, this study introduced pitch accented tones during performance of a sensorimotor tapping task. Furthermore, regularity of the pacing cues was modified by small (subliminal) or large (conscious) timing perturbations. A global analysis across the intervals showed that repeated accented tones increased the tap-tone asynchrony in the regular (control) and irregular (subliminal) trials but not in the irregular trials with awareness of the perturbations. Asynchrony variability demonstrated no effect of accentuation in the regular and subliminal irregular trials, whereas it increased in the conscious irregular trials. A local analysis of the intervals showed that pitch accentuation lengthened the duration of the tapping responses, but only in the irregular trials with large timing perturbations. These data underline that common timing processes are automatically engaged for perception and action, although this arrangement can be overturned by cognitive intervention. Overall, the findings highlight a flexible association between perception and action timing within a functional information processing framework. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Event-related oscillations (EROs) and event-related potentials (ERPs) comparison in facial expression recognition.

PubMed

Balconi, Michela; Pozzoli, Uberto

2007-09-01

The study aims to explore the significance of event-related potentials (ERPs) and event-related brain oscillations (EROs) (delta, theta, alpha, beta, gamma power) in response to emotional (fear, happiness, sadness) when compared with neutral faces during 180-250 post-stimulus time interval. The ERP results demonstrated that the emotional face elicited a negative peak at approximately 230 ms (N2). Moreover, EEG measures showed that motivational significance of face (emotional vs. neutral) could modulate the amplitude of EROs, but only for some frequency bands (i.e. theta and gamma bands). In a second phase, we considered the resemblance of the two EEG measures by a regression analysis. It revealed that theta and gamma oscillations mainly effect as oscillation activity at the N2 latency. Finally, a posterior increased power of theta was found for emotional faces.

Explaining impossible phenomena: object permanence beliefs and memory failures in adults.

PubMed

Subbotsky, E V

1996-03-01

In three experiments, adult subjects' explanations of the observed nonpermanence of a physical object and their recollections of the order of the events during the experiment were obtained and analysed. The data showed that in order to conserve their strong beliefs in object permanence subjects systematically distorted the real temporal succession of events preceding the phenomenon. The frequency of the distortions depended on the salience of the nonpermanence phenomenon ("disappearance" versus "appearance" of the physical object) and on the time interval between the events whose temporal order was reversed, but not on subjects' nationality (English versus German), gender, type of reproduction (immediate versus delayed), role in the experiment (subject versus observer), and degree of prompting in questioning.

Hypnosis is More Effective than Clinical Interviews.

PubMed

Almeida-Marques, Francisco Xavier De; Sánchez-Blanco, José; Cano-García, Francisco Javier

2018-01-01

To determine whether hypnosis is more effective than conventional interviewing to find traumatic life events in patients with fibromyalgia, we carried out a within-subject experimental design with complete intragroup counterbalancing. Thirty-two women under care in a public primary care center gave 2 identical interviews, with an interval of 3 months, in which the occurrence of traumatic life events was explored, once in a state of wakefulness and once in a state of hypnosis. The state of consciousness was evaluated using 3 measures: bispectral index, skin conductance level, and pain intensity. In the hypnotic state, the patients expressed 9.8 times more traumatic life events than in the waking state, a statistically significant difference with a large effect size.

Characteristic Paths of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause High Wind Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Lee, D.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the association between wintertime high wind events (HWEs) in the northeast United States US and extratropical cyclones. Sustained wind maxima in the Daily Summary Data from the National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Surface Database are analyzed for 1979-2012. For each station, a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the upper tail of the daily maximum wind speed data, and probabilistic return levels at intervals of 1, 3 and 5-years are derived from the GPD fit. At each interval, wind events meeting the return level criteria are termed HWEs. The HWEs occurring on the same day are grouped into multi-station events allowing the association with extratropical cyclones, which are tracked in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-Interim reanalysis. Using hierarchical clustering analysis, this study finds that the HWEs are most often associated with cyclones travelling from southwest to northeast, usually originating west of the Appalachian Mountains. The results show that a storm approaching from the southwest is four times more likely to cause strong surface winds than a Nor'easter. A series of sensitivity analyses confirms the robustness of this result. Next, the relationship between the strength of the wind events and the corresponding storm minimum sea level pressure is analyzed. No robust relationship between these quantities is found for strong wind events. Nevertheless, subsequent analysis shows that a relationship between deeper storms and stronger winds emerges if the analysis is extended to the entire set of wintertime storms.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Evolution of Flow channels and Dipolarization Using THEMIS Observations and Global MHD Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Alaoui, M.; McPherron, R. L.; Nishimura, Y.

2017-12-01

We have extensively analyzed a substorm on March 14, 2008 for which we have observations from THEMIS spacecraft located beyond 9 RE near 2100 local time. The available data include an extensive network of all sky cameras and ground magnetometers that establish the times of various auroral and magnetic events. This arrangement provided an excellent data set with which to investigate meso-scale structures in the plasma sheet. We have used a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation to investigate the structure and dynamics of the magnetotail current sheet during this substorm. Both earthward and tailward flows were found in the observations as well as the simulations. The simulation shows that the flow channels follow tortuous paths that are often reflected or deflected before arriving at the inner magnetosphere. The simulation shows a sequence of fast flows and dipolarization events similar to what is seen in the data, though not at precisely the same times or locations. We will use our simulation results combined with the observations to investigate the global convection systems and current sheet structure during this event, showing how meso-scale structures fit into the context of the overall tail dynamics during this event. Our study includes determining the location, timing and strength of several current wedges and expansion onsets during an 8-hour interval.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

A volcanic event forecasting model for multiple tephra records, demonstrated on Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damaschke, Magret; Cronin, Shane J.; Bebbington, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Robust time-varying volcanic hazard assessments are difficult to develop, because they depend upon having a complete and extensive eruptive activity record. Missing events in eruption records are endemic, due to poor preservation or erosion of tephra and other volcanic deposits. Even with many stratigraphic studies, underestimation or overestimation of eruption numbers is possible due to mis-matching tephras with similar chemical compositions or problematic age models. It is also common to have gaps in event coverage due to sedimentary records not being available in all directions from the volcano, especially downwind. Here, we examine the sensitivity of probabilistic hazard estimates using a suite of four new and two existing high-resolution tephra records located around Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Previous estimates were made using only single, or two correlated, tephra records. In this study, tephra data from six individual sites in lake and peat bogs covering an arc of 120° downwind of the volcano provided an excellent temporal high-resolution event record. The new data confirm a previously identified semi-regular pattern of variable eruption frequency at Mt. Taranaki. Eruption intervals exhibit a bimodal distribution, with eruptions being an average of 65 years apart, and in 2% of cases, centuries separate eruptions. The long intervals are less common than seen in earlier studies, but they have not disappeared with the inclusion of our comprehensive new dataset. Hence, the latest long interval of quiescence, since AD 1800, is unusual, but not out of character with the volcano. The new data also suggest that one of the tephra records (Lake Rotokare) used in earlier work had an old carbon effect on age determinations. This shifted ages of the affected tephras so that they were not correlated to other sites, leading to an artificially high eruption frequency in the previous combined record. New modelled time-varying frequency estimates suggest a 33-42% probability of an explosive eruption from Mt. Taranaki in the next 50 years, which is significantly lower than suggested by previous studies. This work also demonstrates some of the pitfalls to be avoided in combining stratigraphic records for eruption forecasting.

Investigation of persistent Multiplets at the EGS reservoir of Soultz-Sous-Forêts, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lengliné, O.; Cauchie, L.; Schmittbuhl, J.

2017-12-01

During the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs, abundant seismicity is generally observed, especially during phases of hydraulic stimulations. The induced seismicity at the Enhanced Geothermal System of Soultz-Sous-Forêts in France, has been thoroughly studied over the years of exploitation. The mechanism at its origin has been related to both fluid pressure increases during stimulation and aseismic creeping movements. The fluid-induced seismic events often exhibit a high degree of similarity and the mechanism at the origin of these repeated events is thought to be associated with slow slip process where asperities on the rupture zone act several times.To have a better understanding of the mechanisms associated with such events and on the damaged zones involved during the hydraulic stimulations, we investigate the behavior of the multiplets and their persistent nature over several water injection intervals. For this purpose, we analyzed large datasets recorded from a borehole seismic network for several water injection periods (1993, 2000). For each stimulation interval, thousands of events are recorded at depth. We detected the events using a STA/LTA approach and classified them into families of comparable waveforms using an approach based on cross-correlation analysis. Classification of the seismic events is then improved depending on their location within the multiplets. For this purpose, inter-event distances within multiplets are examined and determined from cross-correlation analysis between pairs of events. These distances are then compared to the source dimensions derived from the estimation of the corner frequencies estimation. The multiplets properties (location, events size) are then investigated within and over several hydraulic tests. Hopefully these steps will lead to increase the knowledge on the repetitive nature of these events and the investigation of their persistence will outline the heterogeneities of the structures (regional stress perturbations, fluid flow channeling) regularly involved during the different stimulations.

Empagliflozin and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at High Cardiovascular Risk

PubMed Central

Inzucchi, Silvio E.; Lachin, John M.; Wanner, Christoph; Fitchett, David; Kohler, Sven; Mattheus, Michaela; Woerle, Hans J.; Broedl, Uli C.; Johansen, Odd Erik; Albers, Gregory W.; Diener, Hans Christoph

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients), empagliflozin added to standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, driven by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality, with no significant difference between empagliflozin and placebo in risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. In a modified intent-to-treat analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.89–1.56; P=0.26). We further investigated cerebrovascular events. Methods— Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo; 7020 patients were treated. Median observation time was 3.1 years. Results— The numeric difference in stroke between empagliflozin and placebo in the modified intent-to-treat analysis was primarily because of 18 patients in the empagliflozin group with a first event >90 days after last intake of study drug (versus 3 on placebo). In a sensitivity analysis based on events during treatment or ≤90 days after last dose of drug, the hazard ratio for stroke with empagliflozin versus placebo was 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–1.45; P=0.60). There were no differences in risk of recurrent, fatal, or disabling strokes, or transient ischemic attack, with empagliflozin versus placebo. Patients with the largest increases in hematocrit or largest decreases in systolic blood pressure did not have an increased risk of stroke. Conclusions— In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, there was no significant difference in the risk of cerebrovascular events with empagliflozin versus placebo. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01131676. PMID:28386035

Empagliflozin and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at High Cardiovascular Risk.

PubMed

Zinman, Bernard; Inzucchi, Silvio E; Lachin, John M; Wanner, Christoph; Fitchett, David; Kohler, Sven; Mattheus, Michaela; Woerle, Hans J; Broedl, Uli C; Johansen, Odd Erik; Albers, Gregory W; Diener, Hans Christoph

2017-05-01

In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients), empagliflozin added to standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, driven by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality, with no significant difference between empagliflozin and placebo in risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. In a modified intent-to-treat analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.89-1.56; P =0.26). We further investigated cerebrovascular events. Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo; 7020 patients were treated. Median observation time was 3.1 years. The numeric difference in stroke between empagliflozin and placebo in the modified intent-to-treat analysis was primarily because of 18 patients in the empagliflozin group with a first event >90 days after last intake of study drug (versus 3 on placebo). In a sensitivity analysis based on events during treatment or ≤90 days after last dose of drug, the hazard ratio for stroke with empagliflozin versus placebo was 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.45; P =0.60). There were no differences in risk of recurrent, fatal, or disabling strokes, or transient ischemic attack, with empagliflozin versus placebo. Patients with the largest increases in hematocrit or largest decreases in systolic blood pressure did not have an increased risk of stroke. In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, there was no significant difference in the risk of cerebrovascular events with empagliflozin versus placebo. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01131676. © 2017 The Authors.

Towards real-time regional earthquake simulation I: real-time moment tensor monitoring (RMT) for regional events in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Tu, Feng-Shan; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi

2014-01-01

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency-wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010-2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica (http://rmt.earth.sinica.edu.tw). The long-term goal of this system is to provide real-time source information for rapid seismic hazard assessment during large earthquakes.

An IDS Alerts Aggregation Algorithm Based on Rough Set Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ru; Guo, Tao; Liu, Jianyi

2018-03-01

Within a system in which has been deployed several IDS, a great number of alerts can be triggered by a single security event, making real alerts harder to be found. To deal with redundant alerts, we propose a scheme based on rough set theory. In combination with basic concepts in rough set theory, the importance of attributes in alerts was calculated firstly. With the result of attributes importance, we could compute the similarity of two alerts, which will be compared with a pre-defined threshold to determine whether these two alerts can be aggregated or not. Also, time interval should be taken into consideration. Allowed time interval for different types of alerts is computed individually, since different types of alerts may have different time gap between two alerts. In the end of this paper, we apply proposed scheme on DAPRA98 dataset and the results of experiment show that our scheme can efficiently reduce the redundancy of alerts so that administrators of security system could avoid wasting time on useless alerts.

Coupling Poisson rectangular pulse and multiplicative microcanonical random cascade models to generate sub-daily precipitation timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Müller, Hannes; Schümberg, Sabine; Zha, Tingting; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

2018-07-01

To simulate the impacts of within-storm rainfall variabilities on fast hydrological processes, long precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are required. Due to limited availability of observed data such time series are typically obtained from stochastic models. However, most existing rainfall models are limited in their ability to conserve rainfall event statistics which are relevant for hydrological processes. Poisson rectangular pulse models are widely applied to generate long time series of alternating precipitation events durations and mean intensities as well as interstorm period durations. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascade (MRC) models are used to disaggregate precipitation time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. To overcome the inconsistencies between the temporal structure of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the MRC model, we developed a new coupling approach by introducing two modifications to the MRC model. These modifications comprise (a) a modified cascade model ("constrained cascade") which preserves the event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular model by constraining the first and last interval of a precipitation event to contain precipitation and (b) continuous sigmoid functions of the multiplicative weights to consider the scale-dependency in the disaggregation of precipitation events of different durations. The constrained cascade model was evaluated in its ability to disaggregate observed precipitation events in comparison to existing MRC models. For that, we used a 20-year record of hourly precipitation at six stations across Germany. The constrained cascade model showed a pronounced better agreement with the observed data in terms of both the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series (e.g. the dry and wet spell durations and autocorrelations) and event characteristics (e.g. intra-event intermittency and intensity fluctuation within events). The constrained cascade model also slightly outperformed the other MRC models with respect to the intensity-frequency relationship. To assess the performance of the coupled Poisson rectangular pulse and constrained cascade model, precipitation events were stochastically generated by the Poisson rectangular pulse model and then disaggregated by the constrained cascade model. We found that the coupled model performs satisfactorily in terms of the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series, event characteristics and the intensity-frequency relationship.

Scaling of seismic memory with earthquake size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Tenenbaum, Joel; Podobnik, Boris; Tamura, Yoshiyasu; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-07-01

It has been observed that discrete earthquake events possess memory, i.e., that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether continuous real-time data also display a similar memory and, if so, whether such autocorrelations depend on the size of earthquakes within close spatiotemporal proximity. We analyze the seismic wave form database recorded by 64 stations in Japan, including the 2011 “Great East Japan Earthquake,” one of the five most powerful earthquakes ever recorded, which resulted in a tsunami and devastating nuclear accidents. We explore the question of seismic memory through use of mean conditional intervals and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We find that the wave form sign series show power-law anticorrelations while the interval series show power-law correlations. We find size dependence in earthquake autocorrelations: as the earthquake size increases, both of these correlation behaviors strengthen. We also find that the DFA scaling exponent α has no dependence on the earthquake hypocenter depth or epicentral distance.

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Ecosystems response and restitution time across the K/Pg boundary transition at high-latitudes, Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand - a palynological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willumsen, Pi; Vajda, Vivi

2010-05-01

Several major groups of biota/fauna disappeared globally across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (K/Pg boundary) and several other important groups suffered considerable, but not complete, species-level extinction. For marine phytoplankton - a major driver of ocean productivity - darkness and suppression of photosynthesis, in the aftermath of the asteroid impact, was likely a major killing mechanism. Thus, in the marine realm there is a separation in extinction rate between strongly affected groups with calcareous shells and groups that had organic cysts or siliceous tests. Detailed regional records of the long-term post-K/Pg boundary therefore still need to be undertaken to enhance the understanding of how each of the major microfossil groups recovered to elucidate recovery in different ecosystem types following this unique event. Throughout the New Zealand region, widespread deposition of siliceous sediments occurred during the Late Cretaceous to early Paleocene indicating the existence of a south Pacific upwelling regime (Hollis 1993, 1995; Strong et al. 1995). Silica concentration in the oceans increased after the K/Pg event and remained high for 1-2 millions years during the early Paleogene, reflecting high bio-siliceous productivity in the aftermath of the K/Pg boundary event (Hollis et al. 1995, 2003). The geological archives of New Zealand includes outcrops from several basins which provide a unique possibility for examining ecosystem response and restitution time from latest Cretaceous to early Paleogene in a suite of depositional environments spanning from terrestrial to bathyal (Willumsen 2000, Vajda et al. 2001, Vajda and Raine 2003). High-resolution palynological comparative studies of organic-walled microfossils such as dinoflagellate assemblages (dinocysts), spores and pollen are currently carried out on New Zealand sediments. The recovery period in the marine realm is much extended compared with the much shorter recovery time reflected by the terrestrial record e.g. "Fern-spike" interval (Vajda et al. 2001; Vajda and Raine 2003; Vajda and McLoughlin 2004). Interestingly, the dinocyst Trithyrodinium evittii has first occurrence immediately above the K/Pg boundary horizon in the southwest Pacific (Helby et al., 1987; Wilson 1987, 1988; Williams et al. 2004; Willumsen 2000, 2006). This dinocyst pattern is interpreted to reflect an invasion of this species into the southwest Pacific, in the aftermath of the Chicxulub impact. In the New Zealand sections, two earliest Paleocene intervals with dominance of T. evittii are separated by an acme interval of Paleoperidinium pyrophorum (Willumsen 2000, 2006; Willumsen et al., 2004a; 2004b). The sudden acme of P. pyrophorum ca. 0.5 Ma after the K/Pg boundary event is interpreted to reflect a regional cold water pulse taking place after a period with relatively warmer sea-surface e.g. T. evittii dominated dinocyst assemblages. A second period with warm-surface water is observed c. 0.8-1.5 Ma after the event. The end of the main marine recovery period is marked by a gradual arrival of new suite of dinocyst species and oligotrophic conditions. The timing of these early Paleocene events in New Zealand aligns well with D'Hondt et al. (1998, 2005) who propose that the marine ecosystem was radically altered due to the K/Pg boundary event and that the post-K/Pg boundary is divided into several recovery steps before the open-ocean ecosystem was fully recovered c. 3 Ma after the event.

Results from an Evaluation of the Georgia Colorectal Cancer Control Program's Community Education and Outreach Events, 2013.

PubMed

Woodruff, Rebecca C; Hermstad, April; Honeycutt, Sally; Brown, Melody; Kegler, Michelle C

2017-06-01

Although public health practitioners commonly use community education and outreach events to promote cancer screening, the effectiveness of this strategy remains unclear. This study evaluated 23 outreach events, conducted as part of the Georgia Colorectal Cancer Control Program. Of the estimated 1778 individuals who attended these events, those ages 50-75 were eligible to participate in a telephone survey 3 months after attending an event. Surveys measured colorectal cancer (CRC) risk status, CRC screening history at the time of the event, seeking or obtaining CRC screening at 3-month follow-up, and participants' knowledge of their CRC screening status. Of the 335 individuals contacted for this evaluation, 185 completed the survey. Eighty participants (43.2 %) were at elevated risk for CRC and 99 participants (53.5 %) were at average risk. Of the 99 average-risk participants, the majority (n = 69) were not due for CRC screening at the time they attended an event because they had previously received screening within the recommended time intervals. Thirty average-risk participants were due for CRC screening, either because they had never been screened before (n = 19) or because they were due for rescreening (n = 11). Approximately half of these 30 participants who were due for screening either sought (n = 6, 20.0 %) or obtained screening (n = 8, 26.7 %) 3 months following the event. Community education and outreach events may play an important role in motivating participants to seek or obtain CRC screening, but unless priority audiences are identified and recruited, events may attract people who are already compliant with CRC screening.

Multiplicative point process as a model of trading activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontis, V.; Kaulakys, B.

2004-11-01

Signals consisting of a sequence of pulses show that inherent origin of the 1/ f noise is a Brownian fluctuation of the average interevent time between subsequent pulses of the pulse sequence. In this paper, we generalize the model of interevent time to reproduce a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S( f) scaling as a power of the frequency f. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law correlations and the origin of the power-law probability distribution of the signal intensity. We introduce a stochastic multiplicative model for the time intervals between point events and analyze the statistical properties of the signal analytically and numerically. Such model system exhibits power-law spectral density S( f)∼1/ fβ for various values of β, including β= {1}/{2}, 1 and {3}/{2}. Explicit expressions for the power spectra in the low-frequency limit and for the distribution density of the interevent time are obtained. The counting statistics of the events is analyzed analytically and numerically, as well. The specific interest of our analysis is related with the financial markets, where long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely depend on the number of transactions. We analyze the spectral density and counting statistics of the number of transactions. The model reproduces spectral properties of the real markets and explains the mechanism of power-law distribution of trading activity. The study provides evidence that the statistical properties of the financial markets are enclosed in the statistics of the time interval between trades. A multiplicative point process serves as a consistent model generating this statistics.

Serious Asthma Events with Budesonide plus Formoterol vs. Budesonide Alone.

PubMed

Peters, Stephen P; Bleecker, Eugene R; Canonica, Giorgio W; Park, Yong B; Ramirez, Ricardo; Hollis, Sally; Fjallbrant, Harald; Jorup, Carin; Martin, Ubaldo J

2016-09-01

Concerns remain about the safety of adding long-acting β2-agonists to inhaled glucocorticoids for the treatment of asthma. In a postmarketing safety study mandated by the Food and Drug Administration, we evaluated whether the addition of formoterol to budesonide maintenance therapy increased the risk of serious asthma-related events in patients with asthma. In this multicenter, double-blind, 26-week study, we randomly assigned patients, 12 years of age or older, who had persistent asthma, were receiving daily asthma medication, and had had one to four asthma exacerbations in the previous year to receive budesonide-formoterol or budesonide alone. Patients with a history of life-threatening asthma were excluded. The primary end point was the first serious asthma-related event (a composite of adjudicated death, intubation, and hospitalization), as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. The noninferiority of budesonide-formoterol to budesonide was defined as an upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the risk of the primary safety end point of less than 2.0. The primary efficacy end point was the first asthma exacerbation, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. A total of 11,693 patients underwent randomization, of whom 5846 were assigned to receive budesonide-formoterol and 5847 to receive budesonide. A serious asthma-related event occurred in 43 patients who were receiving budesonide-formoterol and in 40 patients who were receiving budesonide (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70 to 1.65]); budesonide-formoterol was shown to be noninferior to budesonide alone. There were two asthma-related deaths, both in the budesonide-formoterol group; one of these patients had undergone an asthma-related intubation. The risk of an asthma exacerbation was 16.5% lower with budesonide-formoterol than with budesonide (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.94; P=0.002). Among adolescents and adults with predominantly moderate-to-severe asthma, treatment with budesonide-formoterol was associated with a lower risk of asthma exacerbations than budesonide and a similar risk of serious asthma-related events. (Funded by AstraZeneca; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01444430 .).

Involvement of the prelimbic cortex in contextual fear conditioning with temporal and spatial discontinuity.

PubMed

Santos, Thays Brenner; Kramer-Soares, Juliana Carlota; Favaro, Vanessa Manchim; Oliveira, Maria Gabriela Menezes

2017-10-01

Time plays an important role in conditioning, it is not only possible to associate stimuli with events that overlap, as in delay fear conditioning, but it is also possible to associate stimuli that are discontinuous in time, as shown in trace conditioning for a discrete stimuli. The environment itself can be a powerful conditioned stimulus (CS) and be associated to unconditioned stimulus (US). Thus, the aim of the present study was to determine the parameters in which contextual fear conditioning occurs by the maintenance of a contextual representation over short and long time intervals. The results showed that a contextual representation can be maintained and associated after 5s, even in the absence of a 15s re-exposure to the training context before US delivery. The same effect was not observed with a 24h interval of discontinuity. Furthermore, optimal conditioned response with a 5s interval is produced only when the contexts (of pre-exposure and shock) match. As the pre-limbic cortex (PL) is necessary for the maintenance of a continuous representation of a stimulus, the involvement of the PL in this temporal and contextual processing was investigated. The reversible inactivation of the PL by muscimol infusion impaired the acquisition of contextual fear conditioning with a 5s interval, but not with a 24h interval, and did not impair delay fear conditioning. The data provided evidence that short and long intervals of discontinuity have different mechanisms, thus contributing to a better understanding of PL involvement in contextual fear conditioning and providing a model that considers both temporal and contextual factors in fear conditioning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of prospective memory impairment among individuals with depression: the influence of cue type and delay interval.

PubMed

Li, Yanqi Ryan; Weinborn, Michael; Loft, Shayne; Maybery, Murray

2013-07-01

The present study investigated the impact of cue type and delay interval on prospective memory performance in depressed, compared to non-depressed, individuals using a clinically relevant measure, the Memory for Intentions Screening Test. The depressed group demonstrated impaired performance on time-based, but not event-based, prospective memory tasks relative to the nondepressed group. The depressed group also demonstrated impaired prospective memory on tasks with longer delay intervals (15 min), but not on tasks with shorter delay intervals (2 min). These data support theoretical frameworks that posit that depression is associated with deficits in cognitive initiative (i.e., reduced ability to voluntarily direct attention to relevant tasks) and thus that depressed individuals are susceptible to poor performance on strategically demanding tasks. The results also raise multiple avenues for developing interventions (e.g., implementation intentions) to improve prospective memory performance among individuals with depression, with potential implications for medication and other treatment adherence.

Evidence for higher-than-average air temperatures after the 8.2 ka event provided by a Central European δ18O record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Nils; Lauterbach, Stefan; Erlenkeuser, Helmut; Danielopol, Dan L.; Namiotko, Tadeusz; Hüls, Matthias; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Dulski, Peter; Nantke, Carla; Meyer, Hanno; Chapligin, Bernhard; von Grafenstein, Ulrich; Brauer, Achim

2017-09-01

The so-called 8.2 ka event represents one of the most prominent cold climate anomalies during the Holocene warm period. Accordingly, several studies have addressed its trigger mechanisms, absolute dating and regional characteristics so far. However, knowledge about subsequent climate recovery is still limited although this might be essential for the understanding of rapid climatic changes. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved and precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval between 7.7 and 8.7 ka BP (103 calendar years before AD 1950), derived from the calcareous valves of benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of pre-Alpine Mondsee (Austria). Besides a clear reflection of the 8.2 ka event, showing a good agreement in timing, duration and magnitude with other regional stable isotope records, the high-resolution Mondsee lake sediment record provides evidence for a 75-year-long interval of higher-than-average δ18O values directly after the 8.2 ka event, possibly reflecting increased air temperatures in Central Europe. This observation is consistent with evidence from other proxy records in the North Atlantic realm, thus most probably reflecting a hemispheric-scale climate signal rather than a local phenomenon. As a possible trigger we suggest an enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), supporting assumptions from climate model simulations.

A Short-term ESPERTA-based Forecast Tool for Moderate-to-extreme Solar Proton Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurenza, M.; Alberti, T.; Cliver, E. W.

2018-04-01

The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) forecast tool has a Probability of Detection (POD) of 63% for all >10 MeV events with proton peak intensity ≥10 pfu (i.e., ≥S1 events, S1 referring to minor storms on the NOAA Solar Radiation Storms scale), from 1995 to 2014 with a false alarm rate (FAR) of 38% and a median (minimum) warning time (WT) of ∼4.8 (0.4) hr. The NOAA space weather scale includes four additional categories: moderate (S2), strong (S3), severe (S4), and extreme (S5). As S1 events have only minor impacts on HF radio propagation in the polar regions, the effective threshold for significant space radiation effects appears to be the S2 level (100 pfu), above which both biological and space operation impacts are observed along with increased effects on HF propagation in the polar regions. We modified the ESPERTA model to predict ≥S2 events and obtained a POD of 75% (41/55) and an FAR of 24% (13/54) for the 1995–2014 interval with a median (minimum) WT of ∼1.7 (0.2) hr based on predictions made at the time of the S1 threshold crossing. The improved performance of ESPERTA for ≥S2 events is a reflection of the big flare syndrome, which postulates that the measures of the various manifestations of eruptive solar flares increase as one considers increasingly larger events.

An analytical approach for estimating fossil record and diversification events in sharks, skates and rays.

PubMed

Guinot, Guillaume; Adnet, Sylvain; Cappetta, Henri

2012-01-01

Modern selachians and their supposed sister group (hybodont sharks) have a long and successful evolutionary history. Yet, although selachian remains are considered relatively common in the fossil record in comparison with other marine vertebrates, little is known about the quality of their fossil record. Similarly, only a few works based on specific time intervals have attempted to identify major events that marked the evolutionary history of this group. Phylogenetic hypotheses concerning modern selachians' interrelationships are numerous but differ significantly and no consensus has been found. The aim of the present study is to take advantage of the range of recent phylogenetic hypotheses in order to assess the fit of the selachian fossil record to phylogenies, according to two different branching methods. Compilation of these data allowed the inference of an estimated range of diversity through time and evolutionary events that marked this group over the past 300 Ma are identified. Results indicate that with the exception of high taxonomic ranks (orders), the selachian fossil record is by far imperfect, particularly for generic and post-Triassic data. Timing and amplitude of the various identified events that marked the selachian evolutionary history are discussed. Some identified diversity events were mentioned in previous works using alternative methods (Early Jurassic, mid-Cretaceous, K/T boundary and late Paleogene diversity drops), thus reinforcing the efficiency of the methodology presented here in inferring evolutionary events. Other events (Permian/Triassic, Early and Late Cretaceous diversifications; Triassic/Jurassic extinction) are newly identified. Relationships between these events and paleoenvironmental characteristics and other groups' evolutionary history are proposed.

Risk of Cardiac Events Associated With Antidepressant Therapy in Patients With Long QT Syndrome.

PubMed

Wang, Meng; Szepietowska, Barbara; Polonsky, Bronislava; McNitt, Scott; Moss, Arthur J; Zareba, Wojciech; Auerbach, David S

2018-01-15

Patients with long QT syndrome (LQTS) are at a high risk of cardiac events. Many patients with LQTS are treated with antidepressant drugs (ADs). We investigated the LQTS genotype-specific risk of recurrent cardiac arrhythmic events (CAEs) associated with AD therapy. The study included 59 LQT1 and 72 LQT2 patients from the Rochester-based LQTS Registry with corrected QT (QT c ) prolongation and a history of AD therapy. Using multivariate Anderson-Gill models, we estimated the LQTS genotype-specific risk of recurrent CAEs (ventricular tachyarrhythmias, aborted cardiac arrest, or sudden cardiac death) associated with time-dependent ADs. Specifically, we examined the risk associated with all ADs, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), and ADs classified on the CredibleMeds list (www.CredibleMeds.org) as "Conditional" or "Known risk of Torsades de pointes (TdP)." After adjusting for baseline QT c duration, sex, and time-dependent beta-blocker usage, there was an increased risk of recurrent CAEs associated with ADs in LQT1 patients (hazard ratio = 3.67, 95% confidence interval 1.98-6.82, p < 0.001) but not in LQT2 patients (hazard ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.49-1.64, p = 0.716; LQT1 vs LQT2 interaction, p < 0.001). Similarly, LQT1 patients who were on SSRIs or ADs with "Known risk of TdP" had a higher risk of recurrent CAEs than those patients off all ADs, whereas there was no association in LQT2 patients. ADs with "Conditional risk of TdP" were not associated with the risk of recurrent CAEs in any of the groups. In conclusion, the risk of recurrent CAEs associated with time-dependent ADs is higher in LQT1 patients but not in LQT2 patients. Results suggest a LQTS genotype-specific effect of ADs on the risk of arrhythmic events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models: 2. Laboratory earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Savage, Heather M.

2012-02-01

The behavior of individual stick-slip events observed in three different laboratory experimental configurations is better explained by a "memoryless" earthquake model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. We make similar findings in the companion manuscript for the behavior of natural repeating earthquakes. Taken together, these results allow us to conclude that the predictions of a characteristic earthquake model that assumes either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval should be preferred to the predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models for all earthquakes. Given that the fixed slip and recurrence models are the preferred models for all of the experiments we examine, we infer that in an event-to-event sense the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models does not explain earthquake behavior. This does not indicate that the elastic rebound model should be rejected in a long-term-sense, but it should be rejected for short-term predictions. The time- and slip-predictable models likely offer worse predictions of earthquake behavior because they rely on assumptions that are too simple to explain the behavior of earthquakes. Specifically, the time-predictable model assumes a constant failure threshold and the slip-predictable model assumes that there is a constant minimum stress. There is experimental and field evidence that these assumptions are not valid for all earthquakes.

Natural periodicities and Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere connection of temperature changes during the last glacial period: EPICA and NGRIP data sets revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Bevacqua, Emanuele; Capparelli, Vincenzo; Carbone, Vincenzo

2015-04-01

We investigate both the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and North Greenland Ice-Core Project (NGRIP) δ18O data sets to study both the time evolution of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the dynamics at longer timescales during the last glacial period, considering the interval 20 - 120 kyr B.P., since this is the interval in which significant temperature changes, that are the focus of the present work, are observed. To identify the main periodicities and their amplitudes, we applied the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), a technique designed to investigate non-stationary data, by which both the δ18O time series are decomposed into a finite number m of oscillating intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) as 18 mΣ-1 δ O = Cj(t)+ rm(t) j=0 (1) where Cj(t) are the IMFs and rm(t) is a residue which provides the mean trend. We extract the proper modes of both the data sets confirming that natural cycles of abrupt climate changes exist and their occurrence cannot be due to random fluctuations in time. It is shown that the time behavior at the typical timescales of Dansgaard-Oeschger events is captured through signal reconstructions obtained by summing five EMD modes for NGRIP and four EMD modes for EDML. The reconstructions obtained by summing the successive modes can be used to describe the climate evolution at longer timescales, characterized by intervals in which Dansgaard-Oeschger events happen and intervals when these are not observed. Using EMD signal reconstructions and a simple model based on the one-dimensional Langevin equation, it is argued that the occurrence of a Dansgaard-Oeschger event can be described as an excitation of the climate system within the same state, while the longer timescale behavior appears to be due to transitions between different climate states. Finally, on the basis of a cross correlation analysis performed to investigate the North-South asynchrony, it is found that the clearest correlation occurs between the long-scale reconstructions at a lag of ≃ 3.05 kyr, which supports the view according to which the Antarctic climate changes lead that of Greenland, but on a longer time-scale than previously reported. The novelty introduced by this work is represented by the fact that we use EMD reconstructions to investigate the climate dynamics at different timescales and to highlight the behaviour of the climate system in order to describe transitions between two different stable states. We also suggest that the results of correlation analysis could be explained in the framework of seesaw models but building up a model which take into account our EMD filtered long timescales series. The results presented could be also useful for theoretical modeling of the climate evolution in order to study which kind of mechanisms are involved and to clarify the role of the ocean into coupling mechanism between the two hemispheres.

Natural periodicities and Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere connection of temperature changes during the last glacial period: EPICA and NGRIP data sets revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

We investigate both the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and North Greenland Ice-Core Project (NGRIP) δ18O data sets to study both the time evolution of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the dynamics at longer timescales during the last glacial period, considering the interval 20 - 120 kyr B.P., since this is the interval in which significant temperature changes, that are the focus of the present work, are observed. To identify the main periodicities and their amplitudes, we applied the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), a technique designed to investigate non-stationary data, by which both the δ18O time series are decomposed into a finite number m of oscillating intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) as 18 m∑-1 δ O = Cj(t)+ rm(t) j=0 (1) where Cj(t) are the IMFs and rm(t) is a residue which provides the mean trend. We extract the proper modes of both the data sets confirming that natural cycles of abrupt climate changes exist and their occurrence cannot be due to random fluctuations in time. It is shown that the time behavior at the typical timescales of Dansgaard-Oeschger events is captured through signal reconstructions obtained by summing five EMD modes for NGRIP and four EMD modes for EDML. The reconstructions obtained by summing the successive modes can be used to describe the climate evolution at longer timescales, characterized by intervals in which Dansgaard-Oeschger events happen and intervals when these are not observed. Using EMD signal reconstructions and a simple model based on the one-dimensional Langevin equation, it is argued that the occurrence of a Dansgaard-Oeschger event can be described as an excitation of the climate system within the same state, while the longer timescale behavior appears to be due to transitions between different climate states. Finally, on the basis of a cross correlation analysis performed to investigate the North-South asynchrony, it is found that the clearest correlation occurs between the long-scale reconstructions at a lag of ≃ 3.05 kyr, which supports the view according to which the Antarctic climate changes lead that of Greenland, but on a longer time-scale than previously reported. The novelty introduced by this work is represented by the fact that we use EMD reconstructions to investigate the climate dynamics at different timescales and to highlight the behaviour of the climate system in order to describe transitions between two different stable states. We also suggest that the results of correlation analysis could be explained in the framework of seesaw models but building up a model which take into account our EMD filtered long timescales series. The results presented could be also useful for theoretical modeling of the climate evolution in order to study which kind of mechanisms are involved and to clarify the role of the ocean into coupling mechanism between the two hemispheres.

Extended time-interval analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fynbo, H. O. U.; Riisager, K.

2014-01-01

Several extensions of the halflife analysis method recently suggested by Horvat and Hardy are put forward. Goodness-of-fit testing is included, and the method is extended to cases where more information is available for each decay event which allows applications also for e.g. γ decay data. The results are tested with Monte Carlo simulations and are applied to the decays of 64Cu and 56Mn.

Effect of Maternal–Child Home Visitation on Pregnancy Spacing for First-Time Latina Mothers

PubMed Central

Chesnokova, Arina; Matone, Meredith; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, A. Russell; Rubin, David M.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of a maternal–child home visitation program on birth spacing for first-time Latina mothers, focusing on adolescents and women who identified as Mexican or Puerto Rican. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study. One thousand Latina women enrolled in the Pennsylvania Nurse–Family Partnership between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were matched to nonenrolled Latina women using propensity scores. The primary outcome was the time to second pregnancy that resulted in a live birth (interpregnancy interval). Proportional hazards models and bootstrap methods compared the time to event. Results. Home visitation was associated with a small decrease in the risk of a short interpregnancy interval (≤ 18 months) among Latina women (hazards ratio [HR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75, 0.99). This effect was driven by outcomes among younger adolescent women (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.65, 0.96). There was also a trend toward significance for women of Mexican heritage (HR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.49, 1.07), although this effect might be attributed to individual agency performance. Conclusions. Home visitation using the Nurse–Family Partnership model had measurable effects on birth spacing in Latina women. PMID:24354820

Effect of maternal-child home visitation on pregnancy spacing for first-time Latina mothers.

PubMed

Yun, Katherine; Chesnokova, Arina; Matone, Meredith; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, A Russell; Rubin, David M

2014-02-01

We examined the impact of a maternal-child home visitation program on birth spacing for first-time Latina mothers, focusing on adolescents and women who identified as Mexican or Puerto Rican. This was a retrospective cohort study. One thousand Latina women enrolled in the Pennsylvania Nurse-Family Partnership between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were matched to nonenrolled Latina women using propensity scores. The primary outcome was the time to second pregnancy that resulted in a live birth (interpregnancy interval). Proportional hazards models and bootstrap methods compared the time to event. Home visitation was associated with a small decrease in the risk of a short interpregnancy interval (≤ 18 months) among Latina women (hazards ratio [HR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75, 0.99). This effect was driven by outcomes among younger adolescent women (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.65, 0.96). There was also a trend toward significance for women of Mexican heritage (HR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.49, 1.07), although this effect might be attributed to individual agency performance. Home visitation using the Nurse-Family Partnership model had measurable effects on birth spacing in Latina women.

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies. PMID:29668765

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross C; Gorse, Denise

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies.

Neural substrates of time perception and impulsivity

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Marc; Simmons, Alan N.; Flagan, Taru; Lane, Scott D.; Wackermann, Jiří; Paulus, Martin P.

2011-01-01

Several studies provide empirical evidence for the association between impulsivity and time perception. However, little is known about the neural substrates underlying this function. This investigation examined the influence of impulsivity on neural activation patterns during the encoding and reproduction of intervals with durations of 3, 9 and 18 seconds using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Twenty-seven subjects participated in this study, including 15 high impulsive subjects that were classified based on their self-rating. FMRI activation during the duration reproduction task was correlated with measures of two self-report questionnaires related to the concept of impulsivity (Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, BIS; Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, ZTPI). Behaviorally, those individuals who under-reproduced temporal intervals also showed lower scores on the ZTPI future perspective subscale and higher scores on the BIS. FMRI activation revealed an accumulating pattern of neural activity peaking at the end of the 9- and 18-s interval within right posterior insula. Activations of brain regions during the reproduction phase of the timing task, such as those related to motor execution as well as to the ‘core control network’ – encompassing the inferior frontal and medial frontal cortex, the anterior insula as well as the inferior parietal cortex – were significantly correlated with reproduced duration, as well as with BIS and ZTPI subscales. In particular, the greater activation in these regions the shorter were the reproduced intervals, the more impulsive was an individual and the less pronounced the future perspective. Activation in the core control network, thus, may form a biological marker for cognitive time management and for impulsiveness. PMID:21763642

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Swieringa, Kurt A.; Capron, William R.

2012-01-01

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Time Determines the Neural Circuit Underlying Associative Fear Learning

PubMed Central

Guimarãis, Marta; Gregório, Ana; Cruz, Andreia; Guyon, Nicolas; Moita, Marta A.

2011-01-01

Ultimately associative learning is a function of the temporal features and relationships between experienced stimuli. Nevertheless how time affects the neural circuit underlying this form of learning remains largely unknown. To address this issue, we used single-trial auditory trace fear conditioning and varied the length of the interval between tone and foot-shock. Through temporary inactivation of the amygdala, medial prefrontal-cortex (mPFC), and dorsal-hippocampus in rats, we tested the hypothesis that different temporal intervals between the tone and the shock influence the neuronal structures necessary for learning. With this study we provide the first experimental evidence showing that temporarily inactivating the amygdala before training impairs auditory fear learning when there is a temporal gap between the tone and the shock. Moreover, imposing a short interval (5 s) between the two stimuli also relies on the mPFC, while learning the association across a longer interval (40 s) becomes additionally dependent on a third structure, the dorsal-hippocampus. Thus, our results suggest that increasing the interval length between tone and shock leads to the involvement of an increasing number of brain areas in order for the association between the two stimuli to be acquired normally. These findings demonstrate that the temporal relationship between events is a key factor in determining the neuronal mechanisms underlying associative fear learning. PMID:22207842

Flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in Massachusetts: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Wade, Timothy J; Lin, Cynthia J; Jagai, Jyotsna S; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2014-01-01

Floods and other severe weather events are anticipated to increase as a result of global climate change. Floods can lead to outbreaks of gastroenteritis and other infectious diseases due to disruption of sewage and water infrastructure and impacts on sanitation and hygiene. Floods have also been indirectly associated with outbreaks through population displacement and crowding. We conducted a case-crossover study to investigate the association between flooding and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness (ER-GI) in Massachusetts for the years 2003 through 2007. We obtained ER-GI visits from the State of Massachusetts and records of floods from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Storm Events Database. ER-GI visits were considered exposed if a flood occurred in the town of residence within three hazard periods of the visit: 0-4 days; 5-9 days; and 10-14 days. A time-stratified bi-directional design was used for control selection, matching on day of the week with two weeks lead or lag time from the ER-GI visit. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of ER-GI visits following the flood. A total of 270,457 ER-GI visits and 129 floods occurred in Massachusetts over the study period. Across all counties, flooding was associated with an increased risk for ER-GI in the 0-4 day period after flooding (Odds Ratio: 1.08; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03-1.12); but not the 5-9 days (Odds Ratio: 0.995; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.955-1.04) or the 10-14 days after (Odds Ratio: 0.966, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.927-1.01). Similar results were observed for different definitions of ER-GI. The effect differed across counties, suggesting local differences in the risk and impact of flooding. Statewide, across the study period, an estimated 7% of ER-GI visits in the 0-4 days after a flood event were attributable to flooding.

Distinguishing signatures of determinism and stochasticity in spiking complex systems

PubMed Central

Aragoneses, Andrés; Rubido, Nicolás; Tiana-Alsina, Jordi; Torrent, M. C.; Masoller, Cristina

2013-01-01

We describe a method to infer signatures of determinism and stochasticity in the sequence of apparently random intensity dropouts emitted by a semiconductor laser with optical feedback. The method uses ordinal time-series analysis to classify experimental data of inter-dropout-intervals (IDIs) in two categories that display statistically significant different features. Despite the apparent randomness of the dropout events, one IDI category is consistent with waiting times in a resting state until noise triggers a dropout, and the other is consistent with dropouts occurring during the return to the resting state, which have a clear deterministic component. The method we describe can be a powerful tool for inferring signatures of determinism in the dynamics of complex systems in noisy environments, at an event-level description of their dynamics.

The PREVAIL trial of enzalutamide in men with chemotherapy-naïve, metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: Post hoc analysis of Korean patients.

PubMed

Kim, Choung-Soo; Theeuwes, Ad; Kwon, Dong Deuk; Choi, Young Deuk; Chung, Byung Ha; Lee, Hyun Moo; Lee, Kang Hyun; Lee, Sang Eun

2016-05-01

This post hoc analysis evaluated treatment effects, safety, and pharmacokinetics of enzalutamide in Korean patients in the phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled PREVAIL trial. Asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naive men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer that progressed on androgen deprivation therapy received 160 mg/d oral enzalutamide or placebo (1:1) until death or discontinuation due to radiographic progression or skeletal-related event and initiation of subsequent therapy. Coprimary end points were centrally assessed radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary end points included investigator-assessed rPFS, time to initiation of chemotherapy, time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, PSA response (≥50% decline), and time to skeletal-related event. Of 1,717 total patients, 78 patients were enrolled in Korea (enzalutamide, n=40; placebo, n=38). Hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for enzalutamide versus placebo were 0.23 (0.02-2.24) for centrally assessed rPFS, 0.77 (0.28-2.15) for OS, 0.21 (0.08-0.51) for time to chemotherapy, and 0.31 (0.17-0.56) for time to PSA progression. A PSA response was observed in 70.0% of enzalutamide-treated and 10.5% of placebo-treated Korean patients. Adverse events of grade ≥3 occurred in 33% of enzalutamide-treated and 11% of placebo-treated Korean patients, with median treatment durations of 13.0 and 5.1 months, respectively. At 13 weeks, the plasma concentration of enzalutamide plus N-desmethyl enzalutamide was similar in Korean and non-Korean patients (geometric mean ratio, 1.04; 90% confidence interval, 0.97-1.10). In Korean patients, treatment effects and safety of enzalutamide were consistent with those observed in the overall PREVAIL study population (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01212991).

The PREVAIL trial of enzalutamide in men with chemotherapy-naïve, metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: Post hoc analysis of Korean patients

PubMed Central

Theeuwes, Ad; Kwon, Dong Deuk; Choi, Young Deuk; Chung, Byung Ha; Lee, Hyun Moo; Lee, Kang Hyun; Lee, Sang Eun

2016-01-01

Purpose This post hoc analysis evaluated treatment effects, safety, and pharmacokinetics of enzalutamide in Korean patients in the phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled PREVAIL trial. Materials and Methods Asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naive men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer that progressed on androgen deprivation therapy received 160 mg/d oral enzalutamide or placebo (1:1) until death or discontinuation due to radiographic progression or skeletal-related event and initiation of subsequent therapy. Coprimary end points were centrally assessed radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary end points included investigator-assessed rPFS, time to initiation of chemotherapy, time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, PSA response (≥50% decline), and time to skeletal-related event. Results Of 1,717 total patients, 78 patients were enrolled in Korea (enzalutamide, n=40; placebo, n=38). Hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for enzalutamide versus placebo were 0.23 (0.02–2.24) for centrally assessed rPFS, 0.77 (0.28–2.15) for OS, 0.21 (0.08–0.51) for time to chemotherapy, and 0.31 (0.17–0.56) for time to PSA progression. A PSA response was observed in 70.0% of enzalutamide-treated and 10.5% of placebo-treated Korean patients. Adverse events of grade ≥3 occurred in 33% of enzalutamide-treated and 11% of placebo-treated Korean patients, with median treatment durations of 13.0 and 5.1 months, respectively. At 13 weeks, the plasma concentration of enzalutamide plus N-desmethyl enzalutamide was similar in Korean and non-Korean patients (geometric mean ratio, 1.04; 90% confidence interval, 0.97–1.10). Conclusions In Korean patients, treatment effects and safety of enzalutamide were consistent with those observed in the overall PREVAIL study population (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01212991). PMID:27195316

Enzalutamide in Japanese patients with chemotherapy-naïve, metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: A post-hoc analysis of the placebo-controlled PREVAIL trial.

PubMed

Kimura, Go; Yonese, Junji; Fukagai, Takashi; Kamba, Tomomi; Nishimura, Kazuo; Nozawa, Masahiro; Mansbach, Hank; Theeuwes, Ad; Beer, Tomasz M; Tombal, Bertrand; Ueda, Takeshi

2016-05-01

To evaluate the treatment effects, safety and pharmacokinetics of enzalutamide in Japanese patients. This was a post-hoc analysis of the phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled PREVAIL trial. Asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naïve patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer progressing on androgen deprivation therapy were randomized one-to-one to 160 mg/day oral enzalutamide or placebo until discontinuation on radiographic progression or skeletal-related event and initiation of subsequent antineoplastic therapy. Coprimary end-points were centrally assessed radiographic progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary end-points were investigator-assessed radiographic progression-free survival, time to initiation of chemotherapy, time to prostate-specific antigen progression, prostate-specific antigen response (≥50% decline) and time to skeletal-related event. Of 1717 patients, 61 were enrolled in Japan (enzalutamide, n = 28; placebo, n = 33); hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.30 for centrally assessed radiographic progression-free survival (0.03-2.95), 0.59 for overall survival (0.20-1.8), 0.46 for time to chemotherapy (0.22-0.96) and 0.36 for time to prostate-specific antigen progression (0.17-0.75) showed the treatment benefit of enzalutamide over the placebo. Prostate-specific antigen responses were observed in 60.7% of enzalutamide-treated men versus 21.2% of placebo-treated men. Plasma concentrations of enzalutamide were higher in Japanese patients: the geometric mean ratio of Japanese/non-Japanese patients was 1.126 (90% confidence interval 1.018-1.245) at 13 weeks. Treatment-related adverse events grade ≥3 occurred in 3.6% of enzalutamide- and 6.1% of placebo-treated Japanese patients. Treatment effects and safety in Japanese patients were generally consistent with the overall results from PREVAIL. © 2016 The Authors. International Journal of Urology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of the Japanese Urological Association.

Timing matters: the processing of pitch relations

PubMed Central

Weise, Annekathrin; Grimm, Sabine; Trujillo-Barreto, Nelson J.; Schröger, Erich

2014-01-01

The human central auditory system can automatically extract abstract regularities from a variant auditory input. To this end, temporarily separated events need to be related. This study tested whether the timing between events, falling either within or outside the temporal window of integration (~350 ms), impacts the extraction of abstract feature relations. We utilized tone pairs for which tones within but not across pairs revealed a constant pitch relation (e.g., pitch of second tone of a pair higher than pitch of first tone, while absolute pitch values varied across pairs). We measured the mismatch negativity (MMN; the brain’s error signal to auditory regularity violations) to second tones that rarely violated the pitch relation (e.g., pitch of second tone lower). A Short condition in which tone duration (90 ms) and stimulus onset asynchrony between the tones of a pair were short (110 ms) was compared to two conditions, where this onset asynchrony was long (510 ms). In the Long Gap condition, the tone durations were identical to Short (90 ms), but the silent interval was prolonged by 400 ms. In Long Tone, the duration of the first tone was prolonged by 400 ms, while the silent interval was comparable to Short (20 ms). Results show a frontocentral MMN of comparable amplitude in all conditions. Thus, abstract pitch relations can be extracted even when the within-pair timing exceeds the integration period. Source analyses indicate MMN generators in the supratemporal cortex. Interestingly, they were located more anterior in Long Gap than in Short and Long Tone. Moreover, frontal generator activity was found for Long Gap and Long Tone. Thus, the way in which the system automatically registers irregular abstract pitch relations depends on the timing of the events to be linked. Pending that the current MMN data mirror established abstract rule representations coding the regular pitch relation, neural processes building these templates vary with timing. PMID:24966823

A high resolution, one million year record of extraterrestrial 3Helium from the Shatsky Rise (site 1209) following the K/T impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, A.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Hull, P. M.; Norris, R. D.

2010-12-01

Located in the North Pacific Ocean, site 1209 on the Shatsky rise offers one of the best-preserved sections for studying biological, oceanographic and climatic events in the aftermath of the K-T impact at ~65 Ma. At this site, the first 450 kyrs after the boundary is represented by an extended carbonate section [1]. The expanded section, also known as the ‘strange interval’ [1] is in direct contrast to sites in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean that have low carbonate deposition during this interval. The strange interval is important for evaluating the immediate changes in climate, ocean circulation, and evolutionary dynamics that accompanied K-T impact in the Pacific Ocean. Here we present measurements of extraterrestrial 3He at site 1209 for the first one million year following the K-T impact event at a resolution of 2.5 cm. Our goal is to better constrain the timescale of climatic and biotic events during this interval of time. Accumulation rates of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), as traced by extraterrestrial 3He [2], provide a tool with which to investigate sedimentation rates at high resolution. Prior work has shown that the accretion rate of IDPs across the K-T boundary is constant [2], allowing us to invert the extraterrestrial 3He flux for instantaneous sedimentation rates. Sedimentation rates derived from extraterrestrial 3He for the first 1.91 meters i.e. 261.60-259.72 revised composite meters depth (rmcd) following the K-T impact are on an average 0.48 cm/kyr- a factor of 1.6 lower than previously suggested [1]. For a brief period, between 259.69-259.44 rmcd after the K/T boundary, 3He-based sedimentation rates increase sharply to 2.88cm/kyr—a factor of 4.23 higher than has been reported for the same time interval [1]. The short lived increase in sedimentation rate may be explained by higher productivity and/or better carbonate preservation through a deepening lysocline. The 3He based sedimentation rates indicate that the duration of the ‘strange interval’ is 721 kyrs and not 450 kyrs as previously suggested based on astronomical tuning [1]. Hence, our results indicate that there are significant differences between the astronomically tuned timescale [1] and the 3He-derived timescale over the first million years following the K-T impact event. [1] Westerhold et al. Paleogeography, paleoclimatology,paleoecology vol 257. pp373. 2008. [2] Mukhopadhyay et al. Geochimica Cosmochimica Acta. Vol 65. pp 653. 2001.

Evaluation of a mandatory quality assurance data capture in anesthesia: a secure electronic system to capture quality assurance information linked to an automated anesthesia record.

PubMed

Peterfreund, Robert A; Driscoll, William D; Walsh, John L; Subramanian, Aparna; Anupama, Shaji; Weaver, Melissa; Morris, Theresa; Arnholz, Sarah; Zheng, Hui; Pierce, Eric T; Spring, Stephen F

2011-05-01

Efforts to assure high-quality, safe, clinical care depend upon capturing information about near-miss and adverse outcome events. Inconsistent or unreliable information capture, especially for infrequent events, compromises attempts to analyze events in quantitative terms, understand their implications, and assess corrective efforts. To enhance reporting, we developed a secure, electronic, mandatory system for reporting quality assurance data linked to our electronic anesthesia record. We used the capabilities of our anesthesia information management system (AIMS) in conjunction with internally developed, secure, intranet-based, Web application software. The application is implemented with a backend allowing robust data storage, retrieval, data analysis, and reporting capabilities. We customized a feature within the AIMS software to create a hard stop in the documentation workflow before the end of anesthesia care time stamp for every case. The software forces the anesthesia provider to access the separate quality assurance data collection program, which provides a checklist for targeted clinical events and a free text option. After completing the event collection program, the software automatically returns the clinician to the AIMS to finalize the anesthesia record. The number of events captured by the departmental quality assurance office increased by 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 60.4%-130%) after system implementation. The major contributor to this increase was the new electronic system. This increase has been sustained over the initial 12 full months after implementation. Under our reporting criteria, the overall rate of clinical events reported by any method was 471 events out of 55,382 cases or 0.85% (95% CI 0.78% to 0.93%). The new system collected 67% of these events (95% confidence interval 63%-71%). We demonstrate the implementation in an academic anesthesia department of a secure clinical event reporting system linked to an AIMS. The system enforces entry of quality assurance information (either no clinical event or notification of a clinical event). System implementation resulted in capturing nearly twice the number of events at a relatively steady case load. © 2011 International Anesthesia Research Society

Modern representation of databases on the example of the Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishkov, V. N.; Zabarinskaya, L. P.; Sergeeva, N. A.

2017-11-01

The development of studies of solar sources and their effects on the state of the near-Earth space required systematization of the corresponding information in the form of databases and catalogs for the entire time of observation of any geoeffective phenomenon that includes, if possible at the time of creation, all of the characteristics of the phenomena themselves and the sources of these phenomena on the Sun. A uniform presentation of information in the form of a series of similar catalogs that cover long time intervals is of particular importance. The large amount of information collected in such catalogs makes it necessary to use modern methods of its organization and presentation that allow a transition between individual parts of the catalog and a quick search for necessary events and their characteristics, which is implemented in the presented Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity of the sequence of catalogs (six separate issues) that cover the period from 1970 to 2009 (20th-23rd solar cycles).

Voyager 2 Jupiter Eruption Movie

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

This movie records an eruptive event in the southern hemisphere of Jupiter over a period of 8 Jupiter days. Prior to the event, an undistinguished oval cloud mass cruised through the turbulent atmosphere. The eruption occurs over avery short time at the very center of the cloud. The white eruptive material is swirled about by the internal wind patterns of the cloud. As a result of the eruption, the cloud then becomes a type of feature seen elsewhere on Jupiter known as 'spaghetti bowls'.

As Voyager 2 approached Jupiter in 1979, it took images of the planet at regular intervals. This sequence is made from 8 images taken once every Jupiter rotation period (about 10 hours). These images were acquired in the Violet filter around May 6, 1979. The spacecraft was about 50 million kilometers from Jupiter at that time.

This time-lapse movie was produced at JPL by the Image Processing Laboratory in 1979.

Cells anticipate periodic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2009-03-01

We show that an amoeboid organism can anticipate the timing of periodic events. The plasmodium of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum moves rapidly under favourable conditions, but stops moving when transferred to less-favourable conditions. Plasmodia exposed to unfavourable conditions, presented in three consecutive pulses at constant intervals, reduced their locomotive speed in response to each episode. When subsequently subjected to favourable conditions, the plasmodia spontaneously reduced their locomotive speed at the time point when the next unfavourable episode would have occurred. This implied anticipation of impending environmental change. After this behaviour had been evoked several times, the locomotion of the plasmodia returned to normal; however, the anticipatory response could subsequently be induced by a single unfavourable pulse, implying recall of the memorized periodicity. We explored the mechanisms underlying these behaviours from a dynamical systems perspective. Our results hint at the cellular origins of primitive intelligence and imply that simple dynamics might be sufficient to explain its emergence.

Night-time heart rate nondipping: clinical and prognostic significance in the general population.

PubMed

Cuspidi, Cesare; Facchetti, Rita; Bombelli, Michele; Sala, Carla; Tadic, Marijana; Grassi, Guido; Mancia, Giuseppe

2018-06-01

Studies addressing the association between a reduced drop of heart rate (HR) at night with subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular events in the general population are scanty. We evaluated this issue in individuals enrolled in the Pressioni Monitorate E Loro Associazioni study. At entry, 2021 individuals underwent diagnostic tests including laboratory investigations, 24-h ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring and echocardiography. Participants were followed from the initial medical visit for a time interval of 148 ± 27 months. To explore the association of circadian HR rhythm and outcomes, participants were classified in the primary analysis according to quartiles of nocturnal HR decrease. In secondary analyses, the population was also classified according nondipping nocturnal HR (defined as a drop in average HR at night lower than 10% compared with day-time values) and next in four categories: first, BP/HR dipper, second, BP/HR nondipper, third, HR dipper/BP nondipper, fourth, HR nondipper/BP dipper). A flattened circadian HR rhythm (i.e. lowest quartile of night-time HR dip) was independently associated with left atrial enlargement, but not to left ventricular hypertrophy; moreover, it was predictive of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events, independently of several confounders (hazard ratio 1.8, confidence interval: 1.13-2.86, P < 0.01 vs. highest quartile). A blunted dipping of nocturnal HR is associated with preclinical cardiac damage in terms of left atrial enlargement and is predictive cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population.

Production of hydrogen peroxide in the atmosphere of a Snowball Earth and the origin of oxygenic photosynthesis

PubMed Central

Liang, Mao-Chang; Hartman, Hyman; Kopp, Robert E.; Kirschvink, Joseph L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2006-01-01

During Proterozoic time, Earth experienced two intervals with one or more episodes of low-latitude glaciation, which are probable “Snowball Earth” events. Although the severity of the historical glaciations is debated, theoretical “hard Snowball” conditions are associated with the nearly complete shutdown of the hydrological cycle. We show here that, during such long and severe glacial intervals, a weak hydrological cycle coupled with photochemical reactions involving water vapor would give rise to the sustained production of hydrogen peroxide. The photochemical production of hydrogen peroxide has been proposed previously as the primary mechanism for oxidizing the surface of Mars. During a Snowball, hydrogen peroxide could be stored in the ice; it would then be released directly into the ocean and the atmosphere upon melting and could mediate global oxidation events in the aftermath of the Snowball, such as that recorded in the Fe and Mn oxides of the Kalahari Manganese Field, deposited after the Paleoproterozoic low-latitude Makganyene glaciation. Low levels of peroxides and molecular oxygen generated during Archean and earliest Proterozoic non-Snowball glacial intervals could have driven the evolution of oxygen-mediating and -using enzymes and thereby paved the way for the eventual appearance of oxygenic photosynthesis. PMID:17138669

Quantitative maps of geomagnetic perturbation vectors during substorm onset and recovery

PubMed Central

Pothier, N M; Weimer, D R; Moore, W B

2015-01-01

We have produced the first series of spherical harmonic, numerical maps of the time-dependent surface perturbations in the Earth's magnetic field following the onset of substorms. Data from 124 ground magnetometer stations in the Northern Hemisphere at geomagnetic latitudes above 33° were used. Ground station data averaged over 5 min intervals covering 8 years (1998–2005) were used to construct pseudo auroral upper, auroral lower, and auroral electrojet (AU*, AL*, and AE*) indices. These indices were used to generate a list of substorms that extended from 1998 to 2005, through a combination of automated processing and visual checks. Events were sorted by interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation (at the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite), dipole tilt angle, and substorm magnitude. Within each category, the events were aligned on substorm onset. A spherical cap harmonic analysis was used to obtain a least error fit of the substorm disturbance patterns at 5 min intervals up to 90 min after onset. The fits obtained at onset time were subtracted from all subsequent fits, for each group of substorm events. Maps of the three vector components of the averaged magnetic perturbations were constructed to show the effects of substorm currents. These maps are produced for several specific ranges of values for the peak |AL*| index, IMF orientation, and dipole tilt angle. We demonstrate an influence of the dipole tilt angle on the response to substorms. Our results indicate that there are downward currents poleward and upward currents just equatorward of the peak in the substorms' westward electrojet. Key Points Show quantitative maps of ground geomagnetic perturbations due to substorms Three vector components mapped as function of time during onset and recovery Compare/contrast results for different tilt angle and sign of IMF Y-component PMID:26167445

The Wasatch fault zone, utah—segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machette, Michael N.; Personius, Stephen F.; Nelson, Alan R.; Schwartz, David P.; Lund, William R.

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. We have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a -1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a -1 recurrence intervals of ≥10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2-4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene; latest Pleistocene (14-15 ka) deposits commonly have scarps as much as 15-20 m in height. Segments identified from paleoseismological studies of other major late Quaternary normal faults in the northern Basin and Range province are 20-25 km long, or about half of that proposed for the medial segments of the WFZ. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ± 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. This pattern of temporal clustering is similar to that of the central Nevada—eastern California Seismic Belt in the western part of the Basin and Range province, where 11 earthquakes of M > 6.5 have occurred since 1860. Although the time scale of the clustering is different—130 years vs 1100 years—we consider the central Nevada—eastern California Seismic Belt to be a historic analog for movement on the WFZ during the past 1500 years. We have found no evidence that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval. In particular, the Brigham City segment (the northernmost medial segment) has not ruptured in the past 3600 years—a period that is about three times longer than this segment's average recurrence interval during the early and middle Holocene. Although the WFZ's seismological record is one of relative quiescence, a comparison with other historic surface-rupturing earthquakes in the region suggests that earthquakes having moment magnitudes of 7.1-7.4 (or surface-wave magnitudes of 7.5-7.7)—each associated with tens of kilometers of surface rupture and several meters of normal dip slip—have occurred about every four centuries during the Holocene and should be expected in the future.

Representation of time interval entrained by periodic stimuli in the visual thalamus of pigeons

PubMed Central

Wang, Shu-Rong

2017-01-01

Animals use the temporal information from previously experienced periodic events to instruct their future behaviors. The retina and cortex are involved in such behavior, but it remains largely unknown how the thalamus, transferring visual information from the retina to the cortex, processes the periodic temporal patterns. Here we report that the luminance cells in the nucleus dorsolateralis anterior thalami (DLA) of pigeons exhibited oscillatory activities in a temporal pattern identical to the rhythmic luminance changes of repetitive light/dark (LD) stimuli with durations in the seconds-to-minutes range. Particularly, after LD stimulation, the DLA cells retained the entrained oscillatory activities with an interval closely matching the duration of the LD cycle. Furthermore, the post-stimulus oscillatory activities of the DLA cells were sustained without feedback inputs from the pallium (equivalent to the mammalian cortex). Our study suggests that the experience-dependent representation of time interval in the brain might not be confined to the pallial/cortical level, but may occur as early as at the thalamic level. PMID:29284554

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

Endocrine events during the periestrous period and the subsequent estrous cycle in ewes after estrus synchronization.

PubMed

Menegatos, J; Chadio, S; Kalogiannis, T; Kouskoura, T; Kouimtzis, S

2003-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the endocrinology of the periestrus period and that of the subsequent estrous cycle in ewes synchronized during the breeding season. Animals were treated for 14 days with either MAP intravaginal sponges or subcutaneous progesterone implants, followed by administration of 500 IU PMSG at the time of withdrawal. The time to estrus occurrence following progestagen withdrawal differed significantly between groups (45.3+/-2.7h for the MAP and 21.5+/-1.2h for the implant group, P<0.001). Estradiol levels around estrus did not differ between groups, but a significant difference was detected for the interval from peak estradiol to estrus, with a shorter interval for the implant group (26.7+/-0.7 and 2.7+/-0.9h, P<0.001). Progesterone implants shortened the interval from removal to LH surge, compared to the MAP group (31.2+/-4.4 and 56.5+/-3.6h, respectively, P<0.05). An earlier response was also observed for the interval from estradiol peak to LH peak in the implant group (12.1+/-3.3 and 37+/-2h, respectively, P<0.005), but no difference was observed for the interval from estrus to LH surge. Progesterone levels, particularly during the Days 6 to 10 of the subsequent estrous cycle were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the implant group. It is concluded that the kind of progesterone treatment may affect the time of estrus and the LH peak as well as the progesterone levels of the subsequent cycle.

Safety of Adding Salmeterol to Fluticasone Propionate in Children with Asthma.

PubMed

Stempel, David A; Szefler, Stanley J; Pedersen, Søren; Zeiger, Robert S; Yeakey, Anne M; Lee, Laurie A; Liu, Andrew H; Mitchell, Herman; Kral, Kenneth M; Raphiou, Ibrahim H; Prillaman, Barbara A; Buaron, Kathleen S; Yun Kirby, Suyong; Pascoe, Steven J

2016-09-01

Long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs) have been shown to increase the risk of asthma-related death among adults and the risk of asthma-related hospitalization among children. It is unknown whether the concomitant use of inhaled glucocorticoids with LABAs mitigates those risks. This trial prospectively evaluated the safety of the LABA salmeterol, added to fluticasone propionate, in a fixed-dose combination in children. We randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, children 4 to 11 years of age who required daily asthma medications and had a history of asthma exacerbations in the previous year to receive fluticasone propionate plus salmeterol or fluticasone alone for 26 weeks. The primary safety end point was the first serious asthma-related event (death, endotracheal intubation, or hospitalization), as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. The statistical design specified that noninferiority would be shown if the upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio for the primary safety end point was less than 2.675. The main efficacy end point was the first severe asthma exacerbation that led to treatment with systemic glucocorticoids, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. Among the 6208 patients, 27 patients in the fluticasone-salmeterol group and 21 in the fluticasone-alone group had a serious asthma-related event (all were hospitalizations); the hazard ratio with fluticasone-salmeterol versus fluticasone alone was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 2.27), which showed the noninferiority of fluticasone-salmeterol (P=0.006). A total of 265 patients (8.5%) in the fluticasone-salmeterol group and 309 (10.0%) in the fluticasone-alone group had a severe asthma exacerbation (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.01). In this trial involving children with asthma, salmeterol in a fixed-dose combination with fluticasone was associated with the risk of a serious asthma-related event that was similar to the risk with fluticasone alone. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; VESTRI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01462344 .).

Corrigendum: Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Segall, Paul; Desmarais, Emily K.; Shelly, David; Miklius, Asta; Cervelli, Peter

2006-01-01

There was a plotting error in Fig. 1 that inadvertently displays earthquakes for the incorrect time interval. The location of earthquakes during the two-day-long slow-slip event of January 2005 are shown here in the corrected Fig. 1. Because the incorrect locations were also used in the Coulomb stress-change (CSC) calculation, the error could potentially have biased our interpretation of the depth of the slow-slip event, although in fact it did not. Because nearly all of the earthquakes, both background and triggered, are landward of the slow-slip event and at similar depths (6.5–8.5 km), the impact on the CSC calculations is negligible (Fig. 2; compare with Fig. 4 in original paper). The error does not alter our conclusion that the triggered events during the January 2005 slow-slip event were located on a subhorizontal plane at a depth of 7.5  1 km. This is therefore the most likely depth of the slow-slip events. We thank Cecily J. Wolfe for pointing out the error in the original Fig. 1.

Single Event Upset Analysis: On-orbit performance of the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer Digital Signal Processor Memory aboard the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiaqiang; Choutko, Vitaly; Xiao, Liyi

2018-03-01

Based on the collection of error data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) Digital Signal Processors (DSP), on-orbit Single Event Upsets (SEUs) of the DSP program memory are analyzed. The daily error distribution and time intervals between errors are calculated to evaluate the reliability of the system. The particle density distribution of International Space Station (ISS) orbit is presented and the effects from the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) and the geomagnetic poles are analyzed. The impact of solar events on the DSP program memory is carried out combining data analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (MC). From the analysis and simulation results, it is concluded that the area corresponding to the SAA is the main source of errors on the ISS orbit. Solar events can also cause errors on DSP program memory, but the effect depends on the on-orbit particle density.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart

2016-03-01

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

A conceptual framework for dynamic extension of the red clearance interval as a countermeasure for red-light-running.

PubMed

Gates, Timothy J; Noyce, David A

2016-11-01

This manuscript describes the development and evaluation of a conceptual framework for real-time operation of dynamic on-demand extension of the red clearance interval as a countermeasure for red-light-running. The framework includes a decision process for determining, based on the real-time status of vehicles arriving at the intersection, when extension of the red clearance interval should occur and the duration of each extension. A zonal classification scheme was devised to assess whether an approaching vehicle requires additional time to safely clear the intersection based on the remaining phase time, type of vehicle, current speed, and current distance from the intersection. Expected performance of the conceptual framework was evaluated through modeling of replicated field operations using vehicular event data collected as part of this research. The results showed highly accurate classification of red-light-running vehicles needing additional clearance time and relatively few false extension calls from stopping vehicles, thereby minimizing the expected impacts to signal and traffic operations. Based on the recommended parameters, extension calls were predicted to occur once every 26.5cycles. Assuming a 90scycle, 1.5 extensions per hour were expected per approach, with an estimated extension time of 2.30s/h. Although field implementation was not performed, it is anticipated that long-term reductions in targeted red-light-running conflicts and crashes will likely occur if red clearance interval extension systems are implemented at locations where start-up delay on the conflicting approach is generally minimal, such as intersections with lag left-turn phasing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sunward-propagating Solar Energetic Electrons inside Multiple Interplanetary Flux Ropes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gómez-Herrero, Raúl; Hidalgo, Miguel A.; Carcaboso, Fernando

2017-05-10

On 2013 December 2 and 3, the SEPT and STE instruments on board STEREO-A observed two solar energetic electron events with unusual sunward-directed fluxes. Both events occurred during a time interval showing typical signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The electron timing and anisotropies, combined with extreme-ultraviolet solar imaging and radio wave spectral observations, are used to confirm the solar origin and the injection times of the energetic electrons. The solar source of the ICME is investigated using remote-sensing observations and a three-dimensional reconstruction technique. In situ plasma and magnetic field data combined with energetic electron observations and amore » flux-rope model are used to determine the ICME magnetic topology and the interplanetary electron propagation path from the Sun to 1 au. Two consecutive flux ropes crossed the STEREO-A location and each electron event occurred inside a different flux rope. In both cases, the electrons traveled from the solar source to 1 au along the longest legs of the flux ropes still connected to the Sun. During the December 2 event, energetic electrons propagated along the magnetic field, while during the December 3 event they were propagating against the field. As found by previous studies, the energetic electron propagation times are consistent with a low number of field line rotations N < 5 of the flux rope between the Sun and 1 au. The flux rope model used in this work suggests an even lower number of rotations.« less

Event-Triggered Distributed Average Consensus Over Directed Digital Networks With Limited Communication Bandwidth.

PubMed

Li, Huaqing; Chen, Guo; Huang, Tingwen; Dong, Zhaoyang; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Lan

2016-12-01

In this paper, we consider the event-triggered distributed average-consensus of discrete-time first-order multiagent systems with limited communication data rate and general directed network topology. In the framework of digital communication network, each agent has a real-valued state but can only exchange finite-bit binary symbolic data sequence with its neighborhood agents at each time step due to the digital communication channels with energy constraints. Novel event-triggered dynamic encoder and decoder for each agent are designed, based on which a distributed control algorithm is proposed. A scheme that selects the number of channel quantization level (number of bits) at each time step is developed, under which all the quantizers in the network are never saturated. The convergence rate of consensus is explicitly characterized, which is related to the scale of network, the maximum degree of nodes, the network structure, the scaling function, the quantization interval, the initial states of agents, the control gain and the event gain. It is also found that under the designed event-triggered protocol, by selecting suitable parameters, for any directed digital network containing a spanning tree, the distributed average consensus can be always achieved with an exponential convergence rate based on merely one bit information exchange between each pair of adjacent agents at each time step. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the feasibility of presented protocol and the correctness of the theoretical results.

Mass Flux in the Ancient Earth-Moon System and Benign Implications for the Origin of Life on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryder, Graham

2002-01-01

The origin of life on Earth is commonly considered to have been negatively affected by intense impacting in the Hadean, with the potential for the repeated evaporation and sterilization of any ocean. The impact flux is based on scaling from the lunar crater density record, but that record has no tie to any absolute age determination for any identified stratigraphic unit older than approx. 3.9 Ga (Nectaris basin). The flux can be described in terms of mass accretion, and various independent means can be used to estimate the mass flux in different intervals. The critical interval is that between the end of essential crustal formation (approx. 4.4 Ga) and the oldest mare times (approx. 3.8 Ga). The masses of the basin-forming projectiles during Nectarian and early Imbrian times, when the last 15 of the approx.45 identified impact basins formed, can be reasonably estimated as minima. These in sum provide a minimum of 2 x 10(exp 21)g for the mass flux to the Moon during those times. If the interval was 80 million years (Nectaris 3.90 Ga, Orientale 3.82 Ga), then the flux was approx. 2 x 10(exp 13) g/yr over this period. This is higher by more than an order of magnitude than a flux curve that declines continuously and uniformly from lunar accretion to the rate inferred for the older mare plains. This rate cannot be extrapolated back increasingly into pre-Nectarian times, because the Moon would have added masses far in excess of itself in post-crust-formation time. Thus this episode was a distinct and cataclysmic set of events. There are approx. 30 pre-Nectarian basins, and they were probably part of the same cataclysm (starting at approx. 4.0 Ga?) because the crust is fairly intact, the meteoritic contamination of the pre-Nectarian crust is very low, impact melt rocks older than 3.92 Ga are virtually unknown, and ancient volcanic and plutonic rocks have survived this interval. The accretionary flux from approx. 4.4 to approx. 4.0 Ga was comparatively benign. When scaled to Earth, even the late cataclysm does not produce oceane vaporating, globally sterilizing events. The rooted concept that such events took place is based on the extrapolation of a nonexistent lunar record to the Hadean. The Earth from approx. 4.4 to approx. 3.8 Ga was comparatively peaceful, and the impacting itself could have been thermally and hydrothermally beneficial. The origin of life could have taken place at any time between 4.4 and 3.85 Ga, given the current impact constraints, and there is no justification for the claim that life originated (or re-originated) as late as 3.85 Ga in response to the end of hostile impact conditions.

Correlation of lithologic and sonic logs from the COST No. B-2 well with seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, K.C.

1979-01-01

The purpose of this study was to correlate events recorded on seismic records with changes in lithology recorded from sample descriptions from the Continental Offshore Stratigraphic Test (COST) No. B-2 well.  The well is located on the U.S. mid-Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf about 146 km east of Atlantic City, N.J. (see location map).  Lithologic data are summarized from the sample descriptions of Smith and others (1976).  Sonic travel times were read at 0.15 m intervals in the well using a long-space sonic logging tool.  Interval velocities, reflection coefficients and a synthetic seismogram were calculated from the sonic log.

The 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and its significance for seismic hazards in eastern North America: overview and synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, J. Wright; Chapman, Martin C.; Green, Russell A.

2015-01-01

The earthquake and aftershocks occurred in crystalline rocks within Paleozoic thrust sheets of the Chopawamsic terrane. The main shock and majority of aftershocks delineated the newly named Quail fault zone in the subsurface, and shallow aftershocks defined outlying faults. The earthquake induced minor liquefaction sand boils, but notably there was no evidence of a surface fault rupture. Recurrence intervals, and evidence for larger earthquakes in the Quaternary in this area, remain important unknowns. This event, along with similar events during historical time, is a reminder that earthquakes of similar or larger magnitude pose a real hazard in eastern North America.

Lidar Luminance Quantizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quilligan, Gerard; DeMonthier, Jeffrey; Suarez, George

2011-01-01

This innovation addresses challenges in lidar imaging, particularly with the detection scheme and the shapes of the detected signals. Ideally, the echoed pulse widths should be extremely narrow to resolve fine detail at high event rates. However, narrow pulses require wideband detection circuitry with increased power dissipation to minimize thermal noise. Filtering is also required to shape each received signal into a form suitable for processing by a constant fraction discriminator (CFD) followed by a time-to-digital converter (TDC). As the intervals between the echoes decrease, the finite bandwidth of the shaping circuits blends the pulses into an analog signal (luminance) with multiple modes, reducing the ability of the CFD to discriminate individual events

Routine vs extended outpatient EEG for the detection of interictal epileptiform discharges

PubMed Central

Britton, Jeffrey W.; Rajasekaran, Vijayalakshmi; Fabris, Rachel R.; Cherian, Perumpillichira J.; Kelly-Williams, Kristen M.; So, Elson L.; Nickels, Katherine C.; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C.; Lagerlund, Terrence D.; Cascino, Gregory D.; Worrell, Gregory A.; Wirrell, Elaine C.

2016-01-01

Objective: To compare the yield of epileptiform abnormalities on 30-minute recordings with those greater than 45 minutes. Methods: We performed a prospective observational cross-sectional study of all outpatient routine EEGs comparing the rate of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) and clinical events during the initial 30 minutes (routine) with those occurring in the remaining 30–60 minutes (extended). A relative increase of 10% was considered clinically significant. Results: EEGs from 1,803 patients were included; overall EEG duration was 59.4 minutes (SD ±6.5). Of 426 patients with IEDs at any time during the EEG, 81 (19.1%, 95% confidence interval 15.6–23) occurred only after the initial 30 minutes. The rate of late IEDs was not associated with age, indication, IED type, or sleep deprivation. Longer recording times also increased event capture rate by approximately 30%. Conclusions: The yield of IED and event detection is increased in extended outpatient EEGs compared to 30-minute studies. PMID:26984946

Routine vs extended outpatient EEG for the detection of interictal epileptiform discharges.

PubMed

Burkholder, David B; Britton, Jeffrey W; Rajasekaran, Vijayalakshmi; Fabris, Rachel R; Cherian, Perumpillichira J; Kelly-Williams, Kristen M; So, Elson L; Nickels, Katherine C; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C; Lagerlund, Terrence D; Cascino, Gregory D; Worrell, Gregory A; Wirrell, Elaine C

2016-04-19

To compare the yield of epileptiform abnormalities on 30-minute recordings with those greater than 45 minutes. We performed a prospective observational cross-sectional study of all outpatient routine EEGs comparing the rate of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) and clinical events during the initial 30 minutes (routine) with those occurring in the remaining 30-60 minutes (extended). A relative increase of 10% was considered clinically significant. EEGs from 1,803 patients were included; overall EEG duration was 59.4 minutes (SD ±6.5). Of 426 patients with IEDs at any time during the EEG, 81 (19.1%, 95% confidence interval 15.6-23) occurred only after the initial 30 minutes. The rate of late IEDs was not associated with age, indication, IED type, or sleep deprivation. Longer recording times also increased event capture rate by approximately 30%. The yield of IED and event detection is increased in extended outpatient EEGs compared to 30-minute studies. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Timing and Order of Transmission Events Is Not Directly Reflected in a Pathogen Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Romero-Severson, Ethan; Skar, Helena; Bulla, Ingo; Albert, Jan; Leitner, Thomas

2014-01-01

Pathogen phylogenies are often used to infer spread among hosts. There is, however, not an exact match between the pathogen phylogeny and the host transmission history. Here, we examine in detail the limitations of this relationship. First, all splits in a pathogen phylogeny of more than 1 host occur within hosts, not at the moment of transmission, predating the transmission events as described by the pretransmission interval. Second, the order in which nodes in a phylogeny occur may be reflective of the within-host dynamics rather than epidemiologic relationships. To investigate these phenomena, motivated by within-host diversity patterns, we developed a two-phase coalescent model that includes a transmission bottleneck followed by linear outgrowth to a maximum population size followed by either stabilization or decline of the population. The model predicts that the pretransmission interval shrinks compared with predictions based on constant population size or a simple transmission bottleneck. Because lineages coalesce faster in a small population, the probability of a pathogen phylogeny to resemble the transmission history depends on when after infection a donor transmits to a new host. We also show that the probability of inferring the incorrect order of multiple transmissions from the same host is high. Finally, we compare time of HIV-1 infection informed by genetic distances in phylogenies to independent biomarker data, and show that, indeed, the pretransmission interval biases phylogeny-based estimates of when transmissions occurred. We describe situations where caution is needed not to misinterpret which parts of a phylogeny that may indicate outbreaks and tight transmission clusters. PMID:24874208

Scripting Module for the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carnright, Robert; Paget, Jim; Coggi, John; Stodden, David

2008-01-01

This add-on module to the SOAP software can perform changes to simulation objects based on the occurrence of specific conditions. This allows the software to encompass simulation response of scheduled or physical events. Users can manipulate objects in the simulation environment under programmatic control. Inputs to the scripting module are Actions, Conditions, and the Script. Actions are arbitrary modifications to constructs such as Platform Objects (i.e. satellites), Sensor Objects (representing instruments or communication links), or Analysis Objects (user-defined logical or numeric variables). Examples of actions include changes to a satellite orbit ( v), changing a sensor-pointing direction, and the manipulation of a numerical expression. Conditions represent the circumstances under which Actions are performed and can be couched in If-Then-Else logic, like performing v at specific times or adding to the spacecraft power only when it is being illuminated by the Sun. The SOAP script represents the entire set of conditions being considered over a specific time interval. The output of the scripting module is a series of events, which are changes to objects at specific times. As the SOAP simulation clock runs forward, the scheduled events are performed. If the user sets the clock back in time, the events within that interval are automatically undone. This script offers an interface for defining scripts where the user does not have to remember the vocabulary of various keywords. Actions can be captured by employing the same user interface that is used to define the objects themselves. Conditions can be set to invoke Actions by selecting them from pull-down lists. Users define the script by selecting from the pool of defined conditions. Many space systems have to react to arbitrary events that can occur from scheduling or from the environment. For example, an instrument may cease to draw power when the area that it is tasked to observe is not in view. The contingency of the planetary body blocking the line of sight is a condition upon which the power being drawn is set to zero. It remains at zero until the observation objective is again in view. Computing the total power drawn by the instrument over a period of days or weeks can now take such factors into consideration. What makes the architecture especially powerful is that the scripting module can look ahead and behind in simulation time, and this temporal versatility can be leveraged in displays such as x-y plots. For example, a plot of a satellite s altitude as a function of time can take changes to the orbit into account.

Palaeoclimatic oscillations in the Pliensbachian (Lower Jurassic) of the Asturian Basin (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, J. J.; Comas-Rengifo, M. J.; Goy, A.

2015-08-01

One of the main controversial items in palaeoclimatology is to elucidate if climate during the Jurassic was warmer than present day, with no ice caps, or if ice caps were present in some specific intervals. The Pliensbachian Cooling event (Lower Jurassic) has been pointed out as one of the main candidates to have developed ice caps on the poles. To constrain the timing of this cooling event, including the palaeoclimatic evolution before and after cooling, as well as the calculation of the seawater palaeotemperatures are of primary importance to find arguments on this subject. For this purpose, the Rodiles section of the Asturian Basin (Northern Spain), a well exposed succession of the uppermost Sinemurian, Pliensbachian and Lower Toarcian deposits, has been studied. A total of 562 beds were measured and sampled for ammonites, for biostratigraphical purposes and for belemnites, to determine the palaeoclimatic evolution through stable isotope studies. Comparison of the recorded uppermost Sinemurian, Pliensbachian and Lower Toarcian changes in seawater palaeotemperature with other European sections allows characterization of several climatic changes of probable global extent. A warming interval which partly coincides with a negative δ13Cbel excursion was recorded at the Upper Sinemurian. After a "normal" temperature interval, a new warming interval that contains a short lived positive δ13Cbel peak, was developed at the Lower-Upper Pliensbachian transition. The Upper Pliensbachian represents an outstanding cooling interval containing a positive δ13Cbel excursion interrupted by a small negative δ13Cbel peak. Finally, the Lower Toarcian represented an exceptional warming period pointed as the main responsible for the prominent Lower Toarcian mass extinction.

Development and interval testing of a naturalistic driving methodology to evaluate driving behavior in clinical research.

PubMed

Babulal, Ganesh M; Addison, Aaron; Ghoshal, Nupur; Stout, Sarah H; Vernon, Elizabeth K; Sellan, Mark; Roe, Catherine M

2016-01-01

Background : The number of older adults in the United States will double by 2056. Additionally, the number of licensed drivers will increase along with extended driving-life expectancy. Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury and death in older adults. Alzheimer's disease (AD) also negatively impacts driving ability and increases crash risk. Conventional methods to evaluate driving ability are limited in predicting decline among older adults. Innovations in GPS hardware and software can monitor driving behavior in the actual environments people drive in. Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) devices are affordable, easy to install and capture large volumes of data in real-time. However, adapting these methodologies for research can be challenging. This study sought to adapt a COTS device and determine an interval that produced accurate data on the actual route driven for use in future studies involving older adults with and without AD.  Methods : Three subjects drove a single course in different vehicles at different intervals (30, 60 and 120 seconds), at different times of day, morning (9:00-11:59AM), afternoon (2:00-5:00PM) and night (7:00-10pm). The nine datasets were examined to determine the optimal collection interval. Results : Compared to the 120-second and 60-second intervals, the 30-second interval was optimal in capturing the actual route driven along with the lowest number of incorrect paths and affordability weighing considerations for data storage and curation. Discussion : Use of COTS devices offers minimal installation efforts, unobtrusive monitoring and discreet data extraction.  However, these devices require strict protocols and controlled testing for adoption into research paradigms.  After reliability and validity testing, these devices may provide valuable insight into daily driving behaviors and intraindividual change over time for populations of older adults with and without AD.  Data can be aggregated over time to look at changes or adverse events and ascertain if decline in performance is occurring.

Orbital time scale and new C-isotope record for Cenomanian-Turonian boundary stratotype

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sageman, Bradley B.; Meyers, Stephen R.; Arthur, Michael A.

2006-02-01

Previous time scales for the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (CTB) interval containing Oceanic Anoxic Event II (OAE II) vary by a factor of three. In this paper we present a new orbital time scale for the CTB stratotype established independently of radiometric, biostratigraphic, or geochemical data sets, update revisions of CTB biostratigraphic zonation, and provide a new detailed carbon isotopic record for the CTB study interval. The orbital time scale allows an independent assessment of basal biozone ages relative to the new CTB date of 93.55 Ma (GTS04). The δ13Corg data document the abrupt onset of OAE II, significant variability in δ13Corg values, and values enriched to almost -22‰. These new data underscore the difficulty in defining OAE II termination. Using the new isotope curve and time scale, estimates of OAE II duration can be determined and exported to other sites based on integration of well-established chemostratigraphic and biostratigraphic datums. The new data will allow more accurate calculations of biogeochemical and paleobiologic rates across the CTB.

Time-lapse seismic tomography using the data of microseismic monitoring network and analysis of mine-induced events, seismic tomography results and technological data in Pyhäsalmi mine, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevalainen, Jouni; Kozlovskaya, Elena

2016-04-01

We present results of a seismic travel-time tomography applied to microseismic data from the Pyhäsalmi mine, Finland. The data about microseismic events in the mine is recorded since 2002 when the passive microseismic monitoring network was installed in the mine. Since that over 130000 microseismic events have been observed. The first target of our study was to test can the passive microseismic monitoring data be used with travel-time tomography. In this data set the source-receiver geometry is based on non-even distribution of natural and mine-induced events inside and in the vicinity of the mine and hence, is a non-ideal one for the travel-time tomography. The tomographic inversion procedure was tested with the synthetic data and real source-receiver geometry from Pyhäsalmi mine and with the real travel-time data of the first arrivals of P-waves from the microseismic events. The results showed that seismic tomography is capable to reveal differences in seismic velocities in the mine area corresponding to different rock types. For example, the velocity contrast between the ore body and surrounding rock is detectable. The velocity model recovered agrees well with the known geological structures in the mine area. The second target of the study was to apply the travel-time tomography to microseismic monitoring data recorded during different time periods in order to track temporal changes in seismic velocities within the mining area as the excavation proceeds. The result shows that such a time-lapse travel-time tomography can recover such changes. In order to obtain good ray coverage and good resolution, the time interval for a single tomography round need to be selected taking into account the number of events and their spatial distribution. The third target was to compare and analyze mine-induced event locations, seismic tomography results and mining technological data (for example, mine excavation plans) in order to understand the influence of mining technology to mining-induced seismicity. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by ERDF SEISLAB project and Pyhäsalmi Mine Ltd.

El Niño-southern oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time.

PubMed

Yocom, Larissa L; Fulé, Peter Z; Brown, Peter M; Cerano, Julian; Villanueva-Díaz, José; Falk, Donald A; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio

2010-06-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool events (La Niñia) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences: Fire regimes were reconstructed from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo Le6n. The sites were approximately 25 ha each, and the site centers were approximately 1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645-1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 18.6 years (fires that scarred > or = 25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in this location and that phases of ENSO are not consistent indicators of precipitation, fire occurrence, or fire behavior in this area of northeastern Mexico.

Paleoearthquakes and Eolian-dominated fault sedimentation along the Hubbell Spring fault zone near Albuquerque, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Personius, S.F.; Mahan, S.A.

2003-01-01

The Hubbell Spring fault zone forms the modern eastern margin of the Rio Grande rift in the Albuquerque basin of north-central New Mexico. Knowledge of its seismic potential is important because the fault zone transects Kirtland Air Force Base/Sandia National Laboratories and underlies the southern Albuquerque metropolitan area. No earthquakes larger than ML 5.5 have been reported in the last 150 years in this region, so we excavated the first trench across this fault zone to determine its late Quaternary paleoseismic history. Our trench excavations revealed a complex, 16-m-wide fault zone overlain by four tapered blankets of mixed eolian sand and minor colluvium that we infer were deposited after four large-magnitude, surface-rupturing earthquakes. Although the first (oldest) rupture event is undated, we used luminescence (thermoluminescence and infrared-stimulated luminescence) ages to determine that the subsequent three rupture events occurred about 56 ?? 6, 29 ?? 3, and 12 ?? 1 ka. These ages yield recurrence intervals of 27 and 17 k.y. between events and an elapsed time of 12 k.y. since the latest surface-rupturing paleoearthquake. Slip rates are not well constrained, but our preferred average slip rate since rupture event 2 (post-56 ka) is 0.05 mm/yr, and interval slip rates between the last three events are 0.06 and 0.09 mm/yr, respectively. Vertical displacements of 1-2 m per event and probable rupture lengths of 34-43 km indicate probable paleoearthquake magnitudes (Ms or Mw) of 6.8-7.1. Future earthquakes of this size likely would cause strong ground motions in the Albuquerque metropolitan area.

Intermittent Astrophysical Radiation Sources and Terrestrial Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melott, Adrian

2013-04-01

Terrestrial life is exposed to a variety of radiation sources. Astrophysical observations suggest that strong excursions in cosmic ray flux and spectral hardness are expected. Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae are expected to irradiate the atmosphere with keV to GeV photons at irregular intervals. Supernovae will produce large cosmic ray excursions, with time development varying with distance from the event. Large fluxes of keV to MeV protons from the Sun pose a strong threat to electromagnetic technology. The terrestrial record shows cosmogenic isotope excursions which are consistent with major solar proton events, and there are observations of G-stars suggesting that the rate of such events may be much higher than previously assumed. In addition there are unknown and unexplained astronomical transients which may indicate new classes of events. The Sun, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts are all capable of producing lethal fluences, and some are expected on intervals of 10^8 years or so. The history of life on Earth is filled with mass extinctions at a variety of levels of intensity. Most are not understood. Astrophysical radiation may play a role, particularly from large increases in muon irradiation on the ground, and changes in atmospheric chemistry which deplete ozone, admitting increased solar UVB. UVB is strongly absorbed by DNA and proteins, and breaks the chemical bonds---it is a known carcinogen. High muon fluxes will also be damaging to such molecules, but experiments are needed to pin down the rate. Solar proton events which are not directly dangerous for the biota may nevertheless pose a major threat to modern electromagnetic technology through direct impact on satellites and magnetic induction of large currents in power grids, disabling transformers. We will look at the kind of events that are expected on timescales from human to geological, and their likely consequences.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea during REM Sleep and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Aurora, R Nisha; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Kim, Ji Soo; Punjabi, Naresh M

2018-03-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) during REM sleep is a common disorder. Data on whether OSA that occurs predominantly during REM sleep is associated with health outcomes are limited. The present study examined the association between OSA during REM sleep and a composite cardiovascular endpoint in a community sample with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease. Full-montage home polysomnography was conducted as part of the Sleep Heart Health Study. The study cohort was followed for an average of 9.5 years, during which time cardiovascular events were assessed. Only participants with a non-REM apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of less than 5 events/h were included. A composite cardiovascular endpoint was determined as the occurrence of nonfatal or fatal events, including myocardial infarction, coronary artery revascularization, congestive heart failure, and stroke. Proportional hazards regression was used to derive the adjusted hazards ratios for the composite cardiovascular endpoint. The sample consisted of 3,265 subjects with a non-REM AHI of less than 5.0 events/h. Using a REM AHI of less than 5.0 events/h as the reference group (n = 1,758), the adjusted hazards ratios for the composite cardiovascular endpoint in those with severe REM OSA (≥30 events/h; n = 180) was 1.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.85). Stratified analyses demonstrated that the association was most notable in those with prevalent cardiovascular disease and severe OSA during REM sleep with an adjusted hazards ratio of 2.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.46-4.47). Severe OSA that occurs primarily during REM sleep is associated with higher incidence of a composite cardiovascular endpoint, but in only those with prevalent cardiovascular disease.

A rank test for bivariate time-to-event outcomes when one event is a surrogate

PubMed Central

Shaw, Pamela A.; Fay, Michael P.

2016-01-01

In many clinical settings, improving patient survival is of interest but a practical surrogate, such as time to disease progression, is instead used as a clinical trial’s primary endpoint. A time-to-first endpoint (e.g. death or disease progression) is commonly analyzed but may not be adequate to summarize patient outcomes if a subsequent event contains important additional information. We consider a surrogate outcome very generally, as one correlated with the true endpoint of interest. Settings of interest include those where the surrogate indicates a beneficial outcome so that the usual time-to-first endpoint of death or surrogate event is nonsensical. We present a new two-sample test for bivariate, interval-censored time-to-event data, where one endpoint is a surrogate for the second, less frequently observed endpoint of true interest. This test examines whether patient groups have equal clinical severity. If the true endpoint rarely occurs, the proposed test acts like a weighted logrank test on the surrogate; if it occurs for most individuals, then our test acts like a weighted logrank test on the true endpoint. If the surrogate is a useful statistical surrogate, our test can have better power than tests based on the surrogate that naively handle the true endpoint. In settings where the surrogate is not valid (treatment affects the surrogate but not the true endpoint), our test incorporates the information regarding the lack of treatment effect from the observed true endpoints and hence is expected to have a dampened treatment effect compared to tests based on the surrogate alone. PMID:27059817

Turbidite event history--Methods and implications for Holocene paleoseismicity of the Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldfinger, Chris; Nelson, C. Hans; Morey, Ann E.; Johnson, Joel E.; Patton, Jason R.; Karabanov, Eugene B.; Gutierrez-Pastor, Julia; Eriksson, Andrew T.; Gracia, Eulalia; Dunhill, Gita; Enkin, Randolph J.; Dallimore, Audrey; Vallier, Tracy; Kayen, Robert; Kayen, Robert

2012-01-01

Turbidite systems along the continental margin of Cascadia Basin from Vancouver Island, Canada, to Cape Mendocino, California, United States, have been investigated with swath bathymetry; newly collected and archive piston, gravity, kasten, and box cores; and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates. The purpose of this study is to test the applicability of the Holocene turbidite record as a paleoseismic record for the Cascadia subduction zone. The Cascadia Basin is an ideal place to develop a turbidite paleoseismologic method and to record paleoearthquakes because (1) a single subduction-zone fault underlies the Cascadia submarine-canyon systems; (2) multiple tributary canyons and a variety of turbidite systems and sedimentary sources exist to use in tests of synchronous turbidite triggering; (3) the Cascadia trench is completely sediment filled, allowing channel systems to trend seaward across the abyssal plain, rather than merging in the trench; (4) the continental shelf is wide, favoring disconnection of Holocene river systems from their largely Pleistocene canyons; and (5) excellent stratigraphic datums, including the Mazama ash and distinguishable sedimentological and faunal changes near the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, are present for correlating events and anchoring the temporal framework. Multiple tributaries to Cascadia Channel with 50- to 150-km spacing, and a wide variety of other turbidite systems with different sedimentary sources contain 13 post-Mazama-ash and 19 Holocene turbidites. Likely correlative sequences are found in Cascadia Channel, Juan de Fuca Channel off Washington, and Hydrate Ridge slope basin and Astoria Fan off northern and central Oregon. A probable correlative sequence of turbidites is also found in cores on Rogue Apron off southern Oregon. The Hydrate Ridge and Rogue Apron cores also include 12-22 interspersed thinner turbidite beds respectively. We use 14C dates, relative-dating tests at channel confluences, and stratigraphic correlation of turbidites to determine whether turbidites deposited in separate channel systems are correlative - triggered by a common event. In most cases, these tests can separate earthquake-triggered turbidity currents from other possible sources. The 10,000-year turbidite record along the Cascadia margin passes several tests for synchronous triggering and correlates well with the shorter onshore paleoseismic record. The synchroneity of a 10,000-year turbidite-event record for 500 km along the northern half of the Cascadia subduction zone is best explained by paleoseismic triggering by great earthquakes. Similarly, we find a likely synchronous record in southern Cascadia, including correlated additional events along the southern margin. We examine the applicability of other regional triggers, such as storm waves, storm surges, hyperpycnal flows, and teletsunami, specifically for the Cascadia margin. The average age of the oldest turbidite emplacement event in the 10-0-ka series is 9,800±~210 cal yr B.P. and the youngest is 270±~120 cal yr B.P., indistinguishable from the A.D. 1700 (250 cal yr B.P.) Cascadia earthquake. The northern events define a great earthquake recurrence of ~500-530 years. The recurrence times and averages are supported by the thickness of hemipelagic sediment deposited between turbidite beds. The southern Oregon and northern California margins represent at least three segments that include all of the northern ruptures, as well as ~22 thinner turbidites of restricted latitude range that are correlated between multiple sites. At least two northern California sites, Trinidad and Eel Canyon/pools, record additional turbidites, which may be a mix of earthquake and sedimentologically or storm-triggered events, particularly during the early Holocene when a close connection existed between these canyons and associated river systems. The combined stratigraphic correlations, hemipelagic analysis, and 14C framework suggest that the Cascadia margin has three rupture modes: (1) 19-20 full-length or nearly full length ruptures; (2) three or four ruptures comprising the southern 50-70 percent of the margin; and (3) 18-20 smaller southern-margin ruptures during the past 10 k.y., with the possibility of additional southern-margin events that are presently uncorrelated. The shorter rupture extents and thinner turbidites of the southern margin correspond well with spatial extents interpreted from the limited onshore paleoseismic record, supporting margin segmentation of southern Cascadia. The sequence of 41 events defines an average recurrence period for the southern Cascadia margin of ~240 years during the past 10 k.y. Time-independent probabilities for segmented ruptures range from 7-12 percent in 50 years for full or nearly full margin ruptures to ~21 percent in 50 years for a southern-margin rupture. Time-dependent probabilities are similar for northern margin events at ~7-12 percent and 37-42 percent in 50 years for the southern margin. Failure analysis suggests that by the year 2060, Cascadia will have exceeded ~27 percent of Holocene recurrence intervals for the northern margin and 85 percent of recurrence intervals for the southern margin. The long earthquake record established in Cascadia allows tests of recurrence models rarely possible elsewhere. Turbidite mass per event along the Cascadia margin reveals a consistent record for many of the Cascadia turbidites. We infer that larger turbidites likely represent larger earthquakes. Mass per event and magnitude estimates also correlate modestly with following time intervals for each event, suggesting that Cascadia full or nearly full margin ruptures weakly support a time-predictable model of recurrence. The long paleoseismic record also suggests a pattern of clustered earthquakes that includes four or five cycles of two to five earthquakes during the past 10 k.y., separated by unusually long intervals. We suggest that the pattern of long time intervals and longer ruptures for the northern and central margins may be a function of high sediment supply on the incoming plate, smoothing asperities, and potential barriers. The smaller southern Cascadia segments correspond to thinner incoming sediment sections and potentially greater interaction between lower-plate and upper-plate heterogeneities. The Cascadia Basin turbidite record establishes new paleoseismic techniques utilizing marine turbidite-event stratigraphy during sea-level highstands. These techniques can be applied in other specific settings worldwide, where an extensive fault traverses a continental margin that has several active turbidite systems.

Time Not Our Time: Physical Controls on the Preservation and Measurement of Geologic Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paola, Chris; Ganti, Vamsi; Mohrig, David; Runkel, Anthony C.; Straub, Kyle M.

2018-05-01

Sadler's (1981) analysis of how measured sedimentation rate decreases with timescale of measurement quantified the vanishingly small fractional time preservation—completeness—of the stratigraphic record. Generalized numerical models have shown that the Sadler effect can be recovered, through the action of erosional clipping and time removal (the “stratigraphic filter”), from even fairly simple topographic sequences. However, several lines of evidence suggest that most of the missing time has not been eroded out but rather represents periods of inactivity or stasis. Low temporal completeness could also imply that the stratigraphic record is dominated by rare, extreme events, but paleotransport estimates suggest that this is not generally the case: The stratigraphic record is strangely ordinary. It appears that the organization of the topography into a hierarchy of forms also organizes the deposition into concentrated events that tend to preserve relatively ordinary conditions, albeit for very short intervals. Our understanding of time preservation would benefit from insight about how inactivity is recorded in strata; better ways to constrain localized, short-term rates of deposition; and a new focus on integrated time–space dynamics of deposition and preservation.

Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events

PubMed Central

Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas

2011-01-01

Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034

Maternal Circadian Eating Time and Frequency Are Associated with Blood Glucose Concentrations during Pregnancy.

PubMed

Loy, See Ling; Chan, Jerry Kok Yen; Wee, Poh Hui; Colega, Marjorelee T; Cheung, Yin Bun; Godfrey, Keith M; Kwek, Kenneth; Saw, Seang Mei; Chong, Yap-Seng; Natarajan, Padmapriya; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Lek, Ngee; Chong, Mary Foong-Fong; Yap, Fabian

2017-01-01

Synchronizing eating schedules to daily circadian rhythms may improve metabolic health, but its association with gestational glycemia is unknown. This study examined the association of maternal night-fasting intervals and eating episodes with blood glucose concentrations during pregnancy. This was a cross-sectional study within a prospective cohort in Singapore. Maternal 24-h dietary recalls, fasting glucose, and 2-h glucose concentrations were ascertained at 26-28 wk gestation for 1061 women (aged 30.7 ± 5.1 y). Night-fasting intervals were based on the longest fasting duration during the night (1900-0659). Eating episodes were defined as events that provided >50 kcal, with a time interval between eating episodes of ≥15 min. Multiple linear regressions with adjustment for confounders were conducted. Mean ± SD night-fasting intervals and eating episodes per day were 9.9 ± 1.6 h and 4.2 ± 1.3 times/d, respectively; fasting and 2-h glucose concentrations were 4.4 ± 0.5 and 6.6 ± 1.5 mmol/L, respectively. In adjusted models, each hourly increase in night-fasting intervals was associated with a 0.03 mmol/L decrease in fasting glucose (95% CI: -0.06, -0.01 mmol/L), whereas each additional daily eating episode was associated with a 0.15 mmol/L increase in 2-h glucose (95% CI: 0.03, 0.28 mmol/L). Conversely, night-fasting intervals and daily eating episodes were not associated with 2-h and fasting glucose, respectively. Increased maternal night-fasting intervals and reduced eating episodes per day were associated with decreased fasting glucose and 2-h glucose, respectively, in the late-second trimester of pregnancy. This points to potential alternative strategies to improve glycemic control in pregnant women. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01174875. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Maternal circadian eating time and frequency are associated with blood glucose levels during pregnancy

PubMed Central

Loy, See Ling; Chan, Jerry Kok Yen; Wee, Poh Hui; Colega, Marjorelee T.; Cheung, Yin Bun; Godfrey, Keith M.; Kwek, Kenneth; Saw, Seang Mei; Chong, Yap-Seng; Natarajan, Padmapriya; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Lek, Ngee; Chong, Mary Foong-Fong; Yap, Fabian

2017-01-01

Background Synchronizing eating schedules with daily circadian rhythms may improve metabolic health, but its association with gestational glycemia is unknown. Objective This study examined the association of maternal night-fasting intervals and eating episodes with blood glucose levels during pregnancy. Methods This was a cross-sectional study within a prospective cohort in Singapore. Maternal 24-hour dietary recalls, fasting glucose and 2-hour glucose concentrations were ascertained at 26-28 weeks’ gestation for 1061 women (age 30.7 ± 5.1 years). Night-fasting intervals were based on the longest fasting duration during the night (1900-0659h). Eating episodes were defined as events which provided >50 kcal, with a time interval between eating episodes of at least 15 minutes. Multiple linear regressions with adjustment for confounders were conducted. Results Mean ± standard deviation night-fasting intervals and eating episodes per day were 9.9 ± 1.6 hours and 4.2 ± 1.3 times per day, respectively; fasting and 2-hour glucose concentrations were 4.4 ± 0.5 and 6.6 ± 1.5 mmol/L, respectively. In adjusted models, each hourly increase in night-fasting interval was associated with a 0.03 mmol/L decrease in fasting glucose (95% CI: -0.06, -0.01 mmol/L), while each additional daily eating episode was associated with a 0.15 mmol/L increase in 2-hour glucose (95% CI: 0.03, 0.28 mmol/L). Conversely, night-fasting intervals and daily eating episodes were not associated with 2-hour and fasting glucose, respectively. Conclusions Increased maternal night-fasting intervals and reduced eating episodes per day were associated with decreased fasting glucose and 2-hour glucose, respectively, in the late-second trimester of pregnancy. This points to potential alternative strategies to improve glycemic control in pregnant women. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01174875. PMID:27798346

Characterizing the Magnetospheric State for Sawtooth Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, S. F.; Tepper, J. A.; Cai, X.

2015-12-01

Magnetospheric sawtooth events, first identified in the early 1990's, are named for their characteristic appearance of multiple quasi-periodic intervals of slow decrease followed by sharp increase of proton energy fluxes in the geosynchronous region. The successive proton flux decrease-and-increase intervals have been interpreted as recurrences of stretching and dipolarization, respectively, of the nightside geomagnetic field [Reeves et al., 2003]. Due to their often-extended intervals with 2- 10 cycles, sawteeth occurrences are sometimes referred to as a magnetospheric mode [Henderson et al., 2006]. Studies over the past two decades of sawtooth events (both event and statistical) have yielded a wealth of information on the conditions for the onset and occurrence of sawtooth events, but the occurrences of sawtooth events during both storm and non-storm periods suggest that we still do not fully understand the true nature of sawtooth events [Cai et al., 2011]. In this study, we investigate the characteristic magnetospheric state conditions [Fung and Shao, 2008] associated with the beginning, during, and ending intervals of sawtooth events. Unlike previous studies of individual sawtooth event conditions, magnetospheric state conditions consider the combinations of both magnetospheric drivers (solar wind) and multiple geomagnetic responses. Our presentation will discuss the most probable conditions for a "sawtooth state" of the magnetosphere. ReferencesCai, X., J.-C. Zhang, C. R. Clauer, and M. W. Liemohn (2011), Relationship between sawtooth events and magnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 116, A07208, doi:10.1029/2010JA016310. Fung, S. F. and X. Shao, Specification of multiple geomagnetic responses to variable solar wind and IMF input, Ann. Geophys., 26, 639-652, 2008. Henderson, M. G., et al. (2006), Magnetospheric and auroral activity during the 18 April 2002 sawtooth event, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A01S90, doi:10.1029/2005JA011111. Reeves, G. D., et al. (2004), IMAGE, POLAR, and geosynchronous observations of substorms and ring current ion injections, in Disturbances in Geospace: The Storm-Substorm Relationship, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 142, edited by A. S. Sharma, Y. Kamide, and G. S. Lakhina, pp. 91-101, AGU, Washington, D. C.

Introducing the Event Related Fixed Interval Area (ERFIA) Multilevel Technique: a Method to Analyze the Complete Epoch of Event-Related Potentials at Single Trial Level

PubMed Central

Vossen, Catherine J.; Vossen, Helen G. M.; Marcus, Marco A. E.; van Os, Jim; Lousberg, Richel

2013-01-01

In analyzing time-locked event-related potentials (ERPs), many studies have focused on specific peaks and their differences between experimental conditions. In theory, each latency point after a stimulus contains potentially meaningful information, regardless of whether it is peak-related. Based on this assumption, we introduce a new concept which allows for flexible investigation of the whole epoch and does not primarily focus on peaks and their corresponding latencies. For each trial, the entire epoch is partitioned into event-related fixed-interval areas under the curve (ERFIAs). These ERFIAs, obtained at single trial level, act as dependent variables in a multilevel random regression analysis. The ERFIA multilevel method was tested in an existing ERP dataset of 85 healthy subjects, who underwent a rating paradigm of 150 painful and non-painful somatosensory electrical stimuli. We modeled the variability of each consecutive ERFIA with a set of predictor variables among which were stimulus intensity and stimulus number. Furthermore, we corrected for latency variations of the P2 (260 ms). With respect to known relationships between stimulus intensity, habituation, and pain-related somatosensory ERP, the ERFIA method generated highly comparable results to those of commonly used methods. Notably, effects on stimulus intensity and habituation were also observed in non-peak-related latency ranges. Further, cortical processing of actual stimulus intensity depended on the intensity of the previous stimulus, which may reflect pain-memory processing. In conclusion, the ERFIA multilevel method is a promising tool that can be used to study event-related cortical processing. PMID:24224018

The Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption, Heinrich Event 4, and palaeolithic change in Europe: A high-resolution investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedele, Francesco G.; Giaccio, Biagio; Isaia, Roberto; Orsi, Giovanni

The Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption from the Phlegraean Fields Caldera, southern Italy, represents one of the largest late Quaternary volcanic event. Its recent dating at 39,280±110 yr BP draws attention to the occurrence of this volcanic catastrophe during a time interval characterized by biocultural modifications in western Eurasia. These included the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the supposed change from Neandertal to "modern" Homo sapiens anatomy, a subject of continuing investigation and controversy. The paper aims to clarify the position and relevance of the CI event in this context. At several archaeological sites of southeastern Europe, the CI ash separates the cultural layers containing Middle Palaeolithic and/or "Earliest Upper Palaeolithic" assemblages from the layers in which Upper Palaeolithic industries occur. At the same sites the CI tephra coincides with a long interruption of occupation. The palaeclimatic records containing the CI products show that the eruption occurred just at the beginning of Heinrich Event 4 (HE4), which was characterized by extreme climatic conditions, compared to the other HEs. From the observation of this concurrence of factors, we advance the hypothesis of a positive climate-volcanism feedback triggered by the co-occurrence of the CI eruption and HE4 onset. Both the environmental and cultural data available for a c.5000-year interval on either side of the event, suggest that a reappraisal of the identity and destiny of the archaeological industries representing the so-called Middle to Upper Palaeolithictransition is in order. This might force a reassessment of the Upper Palaeolithic notion as traditionally employed.

Antiplatelet Regimen for Patients With Breakthrough Strokes While on Aspirin: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Meng; Saver, Jeffrey L; Hong, Keun-Sik; Rao, Neal M; Wu, Yi-Ling; Ovbiagele, Bruce

2017-09-01

Optimal antiplatelet therapy after an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack while on aspirin is uncertain. We, therefore, conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed (1966 to August 2016) and bibliographies of relevant published original studies to identify randomized trials and cohort studies reporting patients who were on aspirin at the time of an index ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack and reported hazard ratio for major adverse cardiovascular events or recurrent stroke associated with a switch to or addition of another antiplatelet agent versus maintaining aspirin monotherapy. Estimates were combined using a random effects model. Five studies with 8723 patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack were identified. Clopidogrel was used in 4 cohorts, and ticagrelor was used in 1 cohort. Pooling results showed that addition of or a switch to another antiplatelet agent, versus aspirin monotherapy, was associated with reduced risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.85) and recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.92). Each of the strategies of addition of and switching another antiplatelet agent showed benefit versus continued aspirin monotherapy, and studies with regimen initiation in the first days after index event showed more homogenous evidence of benefit. Among patients who experience an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack while on aspirin monotherapy, the addition of or a switch to another antiplatelet agent, especially in the first days after index event, is associated with fewer future vascular events, including stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Eliminating the Lost Time Interval of Law Enforcement to Active Shooter Events in Schools

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

Bureau of Justice Assistance BJS Bureau of Justice Statistics BPD Blacksburg Police Department CPR cardiopulmonary resuscitation CSP...Big Brother and Big Sisters,11 and the Strengthening Families program.12 The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) released the Indicators of School...result in school transfers or discipline were found to increase delinquency , dropout rate, and increased violence.44 Profiling students in an attempt

The Use of Coding Methods to Estimate the Social Behavior Directed toward Peers and Adults of Preschoolers with ASD in TEACCH, LEAP, and Eclectic ''BAU'' Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sam, Ann; Reszka, Stephanie; Odom, Samuel; Hume, Kara; Boyd, Brian

2015-01-01

Momentary time sampling, partial-interval recording, and event coding are observational coding methods commonly used to examine the social and challenging behaviors of children at risk for or with developmental delays or disabilities. Yet there is limited research comparing the accuracy of and relationship between these three coding methods. By…

Pythagoras Theorem and Relativistic Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulaj, Zenun; Dhoqina, Polikron

2010-01-01

In two inertial frames that move in a particular direction, may be registered a light signal that propagates in an angle with this direction. Applying Pythagoras theorem and principles of STR in both systems, we can derive all relativistic kinematics relations like the relativity of simultaneity of events, of the time interval, of the length of objects, of the velocity of the material point, Lorentz transformations, Doppler effect and stellar aberration.

A General theory of Signal Integration for Fault-Tolerant Dynamic Distributed Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

related to a) the architecture and fault- tolerance of the distributed sensor network, b) the proper synchronisation of sensor signals, c) the...Computational complexities of the problem of distributed detection. 5) Issues related to recording of events and synchronization in distributed sensor...Intervals for Synchronization in Real Time Distributed Systems", Submitted to Electronic Encyclopedia. 3. V. G. Hegde and S. S. Iyengar "Efficient

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

PubMed Central

Baldini, James U.L.; Brown, Richard J.; McElwaine, Jim N.

2015-01-01

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events. PMID:26616338

The Poisson model limits in NBA basketball: Complexity in team sports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín-González, Juan Manuel; de Saá Guerra, Yves; García-Manso, Juan Manuel; Arriaza, Enrique; Valverde-Estévez, Teresa

2016-12-01

Team sports are frequently studied by researchers. There is presumption that scoring in basketball is a random process and that can be described using the Poisson Model. Basketball is a collaboration-opposition sport, where the non-linear local interactions among players are reflected in the evolution of the score that ultimately determines the winner. In the NBA, the outcomes of close games are often decided in the last minute, where fouls play a main role. We examined 6130 NBA games in order to analyze the time intervals between baskets and scoring dynamics. Most numbers of baskets (n) over a time interval (ΔT) follow a Poisson distribution, but some (e.g., ΔT = 10 s, n > 3) behave as a Power Law. The Poisson distribution includes most baskets in any game, in most game situations, but in close games in the last minute, the numbers of events are distributed following a Power Law. The number of events can be adjusted by a mixture of two distributions. In close games, both teams try to maintain their advantage solely in order to reach the last minute: a completely different game. For this reason, we propose to use the Poisson model as a reference. The complex dynamics will emerge from the limits of this model.

Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Brown, Richard J; McElwaine, Jim N

2015-11-30

The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

Crossover between structured and well-mixed networks in an evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Qionglin; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong; Li, Yuting; Zhang, Mei; Yang, Junzhong

2011-07-01

In a spatial evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game (PDG), individuals interact with their neighbors and update their strategies according to some rules. As is well known, cooperators are destined to become extinct in a well-mixed population, whereas they could emerge and be sustained on a structured network. In this work, we introduce a simple model to investigate the crossover between a structured network and a well-mixed one in an evolutionary PDG. In the model, each link j is designated a rewiring parameter τj, which defines the time interval between two successive rewiring events for link j. By adjusting the rewiring parameter τ (the mean time interval for any link in the network), we could change a structured network into a well-mixed one. For the link rewiring events, three situations are considered: one synchronous situation and two asynchronous situations. Simulation results show that there are three regimes of τ: large τ where the density of cooperators ρc rises to ρc,∞ (the value of ρc for the case without link rewiring), small τ where the mean-field description for a well-mixed network is applicable, and moderate τ where the crossover between a structured network and a well-mixed one happens.

Two Billion Years of Magmatism in One Place on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, G. J.

2017-05-01

Thomas Lapen and Minako Righter (University of Houston), and colleagues at Aarhus University (Denmark), the Universities of Washington (Seattle), Wisconsin (Madison), California (Berkeley), and Arizona (Tucson), and Purdue University (Indiana) show that a geochemically-related group of Martian meteorites formed over a much longer time span than thought previously. So-called depleted shergottites formed during the time interval 325 to 600 million years ago, but now age dating on a recently discovered Martian meteorite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 7635, extends that interval by 1800 million years to 2400 million years. NWA 7635 and almost all other depleted shergottites were ejected from Mars in the same impact event, as defined by their same cosmic-ray exposure age of 1 million years, so all resided in one small area on Mars. This long time span of volcanic activity in the same place on the planet indicates that magma production was continuous, consistent with geophysical calculations of magma generation in plumes of hot mantle rising from the core-mantle boundary deep inside Mars.

Assessing the severity of sleep apnea syndrome based on ballistocardiogram

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xingshe; Zhao, Weichao; Liu, Fan; Ni, Hongbo; Yu, Zhiwen

2017-01-01

Background Sleep Apnea Syndrome (SAS) is a common sleep-related breathing disorder, which affects about 4-7% males and 2-4% females all around the world. Different approaches have been adopted to diagnose SAS and measure its severity, including the gold standard Polysomnography (PSG) in sleep study field as well as several alternative techniques such as single-channel ECG, pulse oximeter and so on. However, many shortcomings still limit their generalization in home environment. In this study, we aim to propose an efficient approach to automatically assess the severity of sleep apnea syndrome based on the ballistocardiogram (BCG) signal, which is non-intrusive and suitable for in home environment. Methods We develop an unobtrusive sleep monitoring system to capture the BCG signals, based on which we put forward a three-stage sleep apnea syndrome severity assessment framework, i.e., data preprocessing, sleep-related breathing events (SBEs) detection, and sleep apnea syndrome severity evaluation. First, in the data preprocessing stage, to overcome the limits of BCG signals (e.g., low precision and reliability), we utilize wavelet decomposition to obtain the outline information of heartbeats, and apply a RR correction algorithm to handle missing or spurious RR intervals. Afterwards, in the event detection stage, we propose an automatic sleep-related breathing event detection algorithm named Physio_ICSS based on the iterative cumulative sums of squares (i.e., the ICSS algorithm), which is originally used to detect structural breakpoints in a time series. In particular, to efficiently detect sleep-related breathing events in the obtained time series of RR intervals, the proposed algorithm not only explores the practical factors of sleep-related breathing events (e.g., the limit of lasting duration and possible occurrence sleep stages) but also overcomes the event segmentation issue (e.g., equal-length segmentation method might divide one sleep-related breathing event into different fragments and lead to incorrect results) of existing approaches. Finally, by fusing features extracted from multiple domains, we can identify sleep-related breathing events and assess the severity level of sleep apnea syndrome effectively. Conclusions Experimental results on 136 individuals of different sleep apnea syndrome severities validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, with the accuracy of 94.12% (128/136). PMID:28445548

About 500-yr interval of huge and widespread paleotsunamis along the Sanriku coast, northern Honshu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, T.; Toda, S.; Tsutsumi, H.; Meghraoui, M.; Ferry, M.; Takada, K.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake triggered a massive tsunami and devastated ~1,000-km-long coastal regions from Aomori to Chiba prefectures, northeast Honshu island. Several pioneering papers already investigated the Sendai to Fukushima region, southern 2011 source area. They found a widespread tsunami inundation by the 869 A.D. Jogan tsunami event (e.g., Minoura and Imamura, 2001; Sawai et al., 2008), which lead the estimated size of the Jogan earthquake up to M8.4 (Satake et al., 2008). No geologic evidence and no historical account in further north may have prevented to conclude straightforwardly that the Jogan earthquake was the penultimate event of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. Here we focus on the Sariku coast, northern part of the 2011 source, and present our pre-Tohoku-oki studies performed at six locations. To recover paleotsunami deposits, I employed conventional coring technique and newly invented Geoslicer to extract several-meter-deep soil and sediment samples. Evidence for paleotsunami event is generally discernible as a several-to-several-tens-of-centimeter medium-to-coarse sand often including mud clast and shells. Such a tsunami sand layer is also distinct intercalated by peats and humic soils representing interseimic dormant periods. Radiocarbon dates yielded from such organic-rich units bracket the depositional timing of the tsunami sand. Although the time constraints of the tsunami sand units are different from site to site, there are shared time ranges of tsunami inundations. Seven well-preserved paleotsunami horizons were commonly found at five onshore sites during the period between 1,000 and 6,000 y.B.P, which yields 500-700 years of recurrence intervals of extremely large tsunamis. One of the flaws in the onshore surveys however is a deficit of the younger sediments due to surface human perturbations. To overcome the issue, I then chose a site inside a bay where no massive erosion and human modification were expected. A 35-m drilling sample recovered from Ozuchi Bay, central Sanriku coast, instead preserved more frequent 22 units of tsunami deposits and associated perturbations during the past 8,000 years, including the 869 A.D. event. It suggests that shoal inside bays can well preserve the sediments of tsunamis, even smaller events. A prominent tendency found in the sequence of tsunami units is a sudden change of recurrence intervals from 500-800 years to 70-150 years at 2,000 y.B.P., which might be associated with a sudden bathymetry change. It may also implies that only huge tsunamis occurred every 500-800 years left sediments inside the bay, which is consistent with the results from onshore surveys.

The features of radiation dose variations onboard ISS and Mir space station: comparative study.

PubMed

Tverskaya, L V; Panasyuk, M I; Reizman, S Ya; Sosnovets, E N; Teltsov, M V; Tsetlin, V V

2004-01-01

The dynamics of the ISS-measured radiation dose variations since August 2000 is studied. Use is made of the data obtained with the R-16 instrument, which consists of two ionization chambers behind different shielding thicknesses. The doses recorded during solar energetic particle (SEP) events are compared with the data obtained also by R-16 on Mir space station. The SEP events in the solar maximum of the current cycle make a much smaller contribution to the radiation dose compared with the October 1989 event recorded on Mir space station. In the latter event, the proton intensity was peaking during a strong magnetic storm. The storm-time effect of solar proton geomagnetic cutoff decreases on dose variations is estimated. The dose variations on Mir space stations due to formation of a new radiation belt of high-energy protons and electrons during a sudden commencement of March 24, 1991 storm are also studied. It was for the first time throughout the ISS and Mir dose measurement period that the counting rates recorded by both R-16 channels on ISS in 2001-2002 were nearly the same during some time intervals. This effect may arise from the decreases of relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of cryoseismicity observed at the Fimbulisen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hainzl, S.; Pirli, M.; Dahm, T.; Schweitzer, J.; Köhler, A.

2017-12-01

A source region of repetitive cryoseismic activity has been identified at the Fimbulisen ice shelf, in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The specific area is located at the outlet of the Jutulstraumen glacier, near the Kupol Moskovskij ice rise. A unique event catalog extending over 13 years, from 2003 to 2016 has been built based on waveform cross-correlation detectors and Hidden Markov Model classifiers. Phases of low seismicity rates are alternating with intense activity intervals that exhibit a strong tidal modulation. We performed a detailed analysis and modeling of the more than 2000 events recorded between July and October 2013. The observations are characterized by a number of very clear signals: (i) the event rate follows both the neap-spring and the semi-diurnal ocean-tide cycle; (ii) recurrences have a characteristic time of approximately 8 minutes; (iii) magnitudes vary systematically both on short and long time scales; and (iv) the events migrate within short-time clusters. We use these observations to constrain the dynamic processes at work at this particular region of the Fimbulisen ice shelf. Our model assumes a local grounding of the ice shelf, where stick-slip motion occurs. We show that the observations can be reproduced considering the modulation of the Coulomb-Failure stress by ocean tides.

Ground penetrating radar documents short-term near-surface hydrological changes around Old Faithful Geyser, Yellowstone National Park, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynne, Bridget Y.; Heasler, Henry; Jaworowski, Cheryl; Smith, Gary J.; Smith, Isaac J.; Foley, Duncan

2018-04-01

In April 2015, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) was used to characterize the shallow subsurface (< 5 m depth) of the western sinter slope immediately adjacent to Old Faithful Geyser and near the north side of an inferred geyser cavity. A series of time-sequence images were collected between two eruptions of Old Faithful Geyser. Each set of time-sequence GPR recordings consisted of four transects aligned to provide coverage near the potential location of the inferred 15 m deep geyser chamber. However, the deepest penetration we could achieve with a 200 MHz GPR antennae was 5 m. Seven time-sequence events were collected over a 48-minute interval to image changes in the near-surface, during pre- and post-eruptive cycles. Time-sequence GPR images revealed a series of possible micro-fractures in a highly porous siliceous sinter in the near-surface that fill and drain repetitively, immediately after an eruption and during the recharge period prior to the next main eruptive event.

A single frame: imaging live cells twenty-five years ago.

PubMed

Fink, Rachel

2011-07-01

In the mid-1980s live-cell imaging was changed by the introduction of video techniques, allowing new ways to collect and store data. The increased resolution obtained by manipulating video signals, the ability to use time-lapse videocassette recorders to study events that happen over long time intervals, and the introduction of fluorescent probes and sensitive video cameras opened research avenues previously unavailable. The author gives a personal account of this evolution, focusing on cell migration studies at the Marine Biological Laboratory 25 years ago. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Robust memory of where from way back when: evidence from behaviour and visual attention.

PubMed

Bauer, Patricia J; Stewart, Rebekah; Sirkin, Ruth E; Larkina, Marina

2017-09-01

Retention of events typically exhibits a sharp initial decrease followed by levelling off of forgetting. In an apparent exception to this general rule, college students have robust memory for their own locations in obscured versions of photographs of their entering classes taken during orientation-related activities, whether tested 2 months or 42 months after the event. Experiment 1 of the present research was a test for conceptual replication of this finding in photographs depicting more than twice the number of students (and thus potential distracters). There was no difference in memory accuracy for personal spatial location across retention intervals of 6-30 months. Experiment 2 featured 40-h and 2-month retention intervals, thereby providing a more fine-grained test of the forgetting function. The findings replicated Experiment 1. In Experiment 3, eye-tracking measures of visual attention revealed that participants rapidly fixated their own spatial locations within the photographs, even in the absence of explicit awareness. In all three experiments, memory for temporal features of the orientation activities (e.g., day and time the photograph was taken) followed the typical forgetting function. The findings suggest differential preservation of episodic memory for where relative to other aspects of events and experiences, such as when.

Distribution and Characteristics of Repeating Earthquakes in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.; Zechar, J. D.; Shaw, B. E.

2012-12-01

Repeating earthquakes are playing an increasingly important role in the study of fault processes and behavior, and have the potential to improve hazard assessment, earthquake forecast, and seismic monitoring capabilities. These events rupture the same fault patch repeatedly, generating virtually identical seismograms. In California, repeating earthquakes have been found predominately along the creeping section of the central San Andreas Fault, where they are believed to represent failing asperities on an otherwise creeping fault. Here, we use the northern California double-difference catalog of 450,000 precisely located events (1984-2009) and associated database of 2 billion waveform cross-correlation measurements to systematically search for repeating earthquakes across various tectonic regions. An initial search for pairs of earthquakes with high-correlation coefficients and similar magnitudes resulted in 4,610 clusters including a total of over 26,000 earthquakes. A subsequent double-difference re-analysis of these clusters resulted in 1,879 sequences (8,640 events) where a common rupture area can be resolved to the precision of a few tens of meters or less. These repeating earthquake sequences (RES) include between 3 and 24 events with magnitudes up to ML=4. We compute precise relative magnitudes between events in each sequence from differential amplitude measurements. Differences between these and standard coda-duration magnitudes have a standard deviation of 0.09. The RES occur throughout northern California, but RES with 10 or more events (6%) only occur along the central San Andreas and Calaveras faults. We are establishing baseline characteristics for each sequence, such as recurrence intervals and their coefficient of variation (CV), in order to compare them across tectonic regions. CVs for these clusters range from 0.002 to 2.6, indicating a range of behavior between periodic occurrence (CV~0), random occurrence, and temporal clustering. 10% of the RES show burst-like behavior with mean recurrence times smaller than one month. 5% of the RES have mean recurrence times greater than one year and include more than 10 earthquakes. Earthquakes in the 50 most periodic sequences (CV<0.2) do not appear to be predictable by either time- or slip-predictable models, consistent with previous findings. We demonstrate that changes in recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes can be routinely monitored. This is especially important for sequences with CV~0, as they may indicate changes in the loading rate. We also present results from retrospective forecast experiments based on near-real time hazard functions.

Flexible timing by temporal scaling of cortical responses

PubMed Central

Wang, Jing; Narain, Devika; Hosseini, Eghbal A.; Jazayeri, Mehrdad

2017-01-01

Musicians can perform at different tempos, speakers can control the cadence of their speech, and children can flexibly vary their temporal expectations of events. To understand the neural basis of such flexibility, we recorded from the medial frontal cortex of nonhuman primates trained to produce different time intervals with different effectors. Neural responses were heterogeneous, nonlinear and complex, and exhibited a remarkable form of temporal invariance: firing rate profiles were temporally scaled to match the produced intervals. Recording from downstream neurons in the caudate and thalamic neurons projecting to the medial frontal cortex indicated that this phenomenon originates within cortical networks. Recurrent neural network models trained to perform the task revealed that temporal scaling emerges from nonlinearities in the network and degree of scaling is controlled by the strength of external input. These findings demonstrate a simple and general mechanism for conferring temporal flexibility upon sensorimotor and cognitive functions. PMID:29203897

A highly coarse-grained model to simulate entangled polymer melts.

PubMed

Zhu, You-Liang; Liu, Hong; Lu, Zhong-Yuan

2012-04-14

We introduce a highly coarse-grained model to simulate the entangled polymer melts. In this model, a polymer chain is taken as a single coarse-grained particle, and the creation and annihilation of entanglements are regarded as stochastic events in proper time intervals according to certain rules and possibilities. We build the relationship between the probability of appearance of an entanglement between any pair of neighboring chains at a given time interval and the rate of variation of entanglements which describes the concurrence of birth and death of entanglements. The probability of disappearance of entanglements is tuned to keep the total entanglement number around the target value. This useful model can reflect many characteristics of entanglements and macroscopic properties of polymer melts. As an illustration, we apply this model to simulate the polyethylene melt of C(1000)H(2002) at 450 K and further validate this model by comparing to experimental data and other simulation results.

Contributions of substorm injections to SYM-H depressions in the main phase of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhaohai; Dai, Lei; Wang, Chi; Duan, Suping; Zhang, Lingqian; Chen, Tao; Roth, I.

2016-12-01

Substorm injections bring energetic particles to the inner magnetosphere. But the role of the injected population in building up the storm time ring current is not well understood. By surveying Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous data during 34 storm main phases, we show evidence that at least some substorm injections can contribute to substorm-time scale SYM-H/Dst depressions in the main phase of storms. For event studies, we analyze two typical events in which the main-phase SYM-H index exhibited stepwise depressions that are correlated with particle flux enhancement due to injections and with AL index. A statistical study is performed based on 95 storm time injection events. The flux increases of the injected population (50-400 keV) are found proportional to the sharp SYM-H depressions during the injection interval. By identifying dispersionless and dispersive injection signals, we estimate the azimuthal extent of the substorm injection. Statistical results show that the injection regions of these storm time substorms are characterized with an azimuthal extent larger than 06:00 magnetic local time. These results suggest that at least some substorm injections may mimic the large-scale enhanced convection and contribute to sharp decreases of Dst in the storm main phase.

Streambed scour of salmon spawning habitat in a regulated river influenced by management of peak discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Burton, Karl D.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Konrad, Christopher P.

2017-01-01

In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, salmon eggs incubating within streambed gravels are susceptible to scour during floods. The threat to egg-to-fry survival by streambed scour is mitigated, in part, by the adaptation of salmon to bury their eggs below the typical depth of scour. In regulated rivers globally, we suggest that water managers consider the effect of dam operations on scour and its impacts on species dependent on benthic habitats.We instrumented salmon-spawning habitat with accelerometer scour monitors (ASMs) at 73 locations in 11 reaches of the Cedar River in western Washington State of the United States from Autumn 2013 through the Spring of 2014. The timing of scour was related to the discharge measured at a nearby gage and compared to previously published ASM data at 26 locations in two reaches of the Cedar River collected between Autumn 2010 and Spring 2011.Thirteen percent of the recovered ASMs recorded scour during a peak-discharge event in March 2014 (2-to 3-year recurrence interval) compared to 71% of the recovered ASMs during a higher peak-discharge event in January 2011 (10-year recurrence interval). Of the 23 locations where ASMs recorded scour during the 2011 and 2014 deployments, 35% had scour when the discharge was ≤87.3 m3/s (3,082 ft3/s) (2-year recurrence interval discharge) with 13% recording scour at or below the 62.3 m3/s (2,200 ft3/s) operational threshold for peak-discharge management during the incubation of salmon eggs.Scour to the depth of salmon egg pockets was limited during peak discharges with frequent (1.25-year or less) recurrence intervals, which managers can regulate through dam operations on the Cedar River. Pairing novel measurements of the timing of streambed scour with discharge data allows the development of peak-discharge management strategies that protect salmon eggs incubating within streambed gravels during floods.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Screen-based entertainment time, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular events: population-based study with ongoing mortality and hospital events follow-up.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Hamer, Mark; Dunstan, David W

2011-01-18

The aim of this study was to examine the independent relationships of television viewing or other screen-based entertainment ("screen time") with all-cause mortality and clinically confirmed cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. A secondary objective was to examine the extent to which metabolic (body mass index, high-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol) and inflammatory (C-reactive protein) markers mediate the relationship between screen time and CVD events. Although some evidence suggests that prolonged sitting is linked to CVD risk factor development regardless of physical activity participation, studies with hard outcomes are scarce. A population sample of 4,512 (1,945 men) Scottish Health Survey 2003 respondents (≥35 years) were followed up to 2007 for all-cause mortality and CVD events (fatal and nonfatal combined). Main exposures were interviewer-assessed screen time (<2 h/day; 2 to <4 h/day; and ≥4 h/day) and moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity. Two hundred fifteen CVD events and 325 any-cause deaths occurred during 19,364 follow-up person-years. The covariable (age, sex, ethnicity, obesity, smoking, social class, long-standing illness, marital status, diabetes, hypertension)-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 1.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06 to 2.16) and for CVD events was 2.30 (95% CI: 1.33 to 3.96) for participants engaging in ≥4 h/day of screen time relative to <2 h/day. Adjusting for physical activity attenuated these associations only slightly (all-cause mortality: HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.13; CVD events: HR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.30 to 3.89). Exclusion of participants with CVD events in the first 2 years of follow-up and previous cancer registrations did not change these results appreciably. Approximately 25% of the association between screen time and CVD events was explained collectively by C-reactive protein, body mass index, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Recreational sitting, as reflected by television/screen viewing time, is related to raised mortality and CVD risk regardless of physical activity participation. Inflammatory and metabolic risk factors partly explain this relationship. Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prolonged dry periods between rainfall events shorten the growth period of the resurrection plant Reaumuria soongorica.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhengzhong; Shan, Lishan; Li, Yi

2018-01-01

The resurrection plant Reaumuria soongorica is widespread across Asia, southern Europe, and North Africa and is considered to be a constructive keystone species in desert ecosystems, but the impacts of climate change on this species in desert ecosystems are unclear. Here, the morphological responses of R. soongorica to changes in rainfall quantity (30% reduction and 30% increase in rainfall quantity) and interval (50% longer drought interval between rainfall events) were tested. Stage-specific changes in growth were monitored by sampling at the beginning, middle, and end of the growing season. Reduced rainfall decreased the aboveground and total biomass, while additional precipitation generally advanced R. soongorica growth and biomass accumulation. An increased interval between rainfall events resulted in an increase in root biomass in the middle of the growing season, followed by a decrease toward the end. The response to the combination of increased rainfall quantity and interval was similar to the response to increased interval alone, suggesting that the effects of changes in rainfall patterns exert a greater influence than increased rainfall quantity. Thus, despite the short duration of this experiment, consequences of changes in rainfall regime on seedling growth were observed. In particular, a prolonged rainfall interval shortened the growth period, suggesting that climate change-induced rainfall variability may have significant effects on the structure and functioning of desert ecosystems.

Beginning of a new age: How did freshwater gastropods respond to the Quaternary climate change in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Neubauer, Thomas A.; Strona, Giovanni; Kroh, Andreas; Mandic, Oleg; Harzhauser, Mathias

2016-10-01

The well documented fossil record of European Quaternary freshwater gastropods offers a unique resource for continental-scale biogeographical analyses. Here, we assembled a dataset including 338 freshwater gastropod taxa from 1058 localities across Europe, which we used to explore how freshwater gastropod communities varied in space and time across six distinct time intervals of the Quaternary, i.e. Gelasian, Calabrian, Middle Pleistocene, Last Interglacial, Last Glacial and Holocene. We took into consideration both species richness and qualitative structural patterns, comparing turnover rates between time intervals and examining variations in community nestedness-segregation patterns. Species richness differed significantly between time intervals. The Early Pleistocene showed the highest diversity, likely because of the contribution of long-lived aquatic systems like the lakes Bresse and Tiberino that promoted speciation and endemism. The rich Middle to Late Pleistocene and Holocene assemblages were mostly linked to fluvial and/or lacustrine systems with short temporal durations. We identified a major turnover event at the Plio-Pleistocene boundary, related to the demise of long-lived lakes and of their rich, endemic faunas at the end of the Pliocene. In the subsequent intervals, little or no turnover was observed. We also observed a pattern of high segregation in Early Pleistocene communities, associated with the abundance of endemic species with small distribution ranges, and reflecting the provincial character of the aquatic freshwater systems at that time. This structured pattern disintegrated gradually towards the Middle Pleistocene and remained unstructured up to present. In particular, spatial patterns of community nestedness-segregation in the Last Interglacial and Holocene suggest a random recolonization of freshwater habitats mostly by generalist species following deglaciation.

Estimated Effects of Asian Dust Storms on Spatiotemporal Distributions of Clinic Visits for Respiratory Diseases in Taipei Children (Taiwan)

PubMed Central

Chien, Lung-Chang; Yang, Chiang-Hsing

2012-01-01

Background: Increases in certain cause-specific hospital admissions have been reported during Asian dust storms (ADS), which primarily originate from north and northwest China during winter and spring. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between the ADS and clinic visits for respiratory diseases in children. Objective: We investigated the general impact to children’s health across space and time by analyzing daily clinic visits for respiratory diseases among preschool and schoolchildren registered in 12 districts of Taipei City during 1997–2007 from the National Health Insurance dataset. Methods: We applied a structural additive regression model to estimate the association between ADS episodes and children’s clinic visits for respiratory diseases, controlling for space and time variations. Results: Compared with weeks before ADS events, the rate of clinic visits during weeks after ADS events increased 2.54% (95% credible interval = 2.43, 2.66) for preschool children (≤ 6 years of age) and 5.03% (95% credible interval = 4.87, 5.20) for schoolchildren (7–14 years of age). Spatial heterogeneity in relative rates of clinic visits was also identified. Compared with the mean level of Taipei City, higher relative rates appeared in districts with or near large hospitals and medical centers. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to assess the impact of ADS on children’s respiratory health. Our analysis suggests that children’s respiratory health was affected by ADS events across all of Taipei, especially among schoolchildren. PMID:22538266

Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

PubMed Central

Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

2012-01-01

Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

Changes in Winegrape Phenology and Relationships with Climate and Wine Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G.

2004-12-01

During the phenological cycle of winegrapes, the timing of specific events and the length between the events are critical to the production of quality fruit and wine. In addition, winegrapes are typically grown in climates that optimize the ripening characteristics for specific varieties. These narrow geographical zones place the production of wine at a greater risk from climate variability and change than other more broadly based agricultural crops. To analyze the relationships between phenology, climate, and wine quality, data from three prominent regions in France-Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne-are used. Long-term phenological data for bud break, flowering, veraison, and harvest dates for Pinot Noir in Burgundy and Champagne and for Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon are examined for trends, climatic influences, and the general effects on wine quality. The results reveal significantly earlier events (6-14 days) with shorter intervals between events (5-12 days) across all regions. In addition, warmer growing seasons have clearly influenced these changes in the phenological cycle of winegrapes in France. Furthermore, changes in phenology and growing season temperatures are related to better fruit composition and increases in vintage ratings over the last 30-40 years. However, some of the warmest growing seasons, with very early phenology and short intervals, have resulted in lower quality. The results point to potential threshold issues whereby any further warming will likely compromise the phenological characteristics, ripening profiles, and wine quality of the varieties currently being grown.

[Guidelines for uniform reporting of data from out-of-hospital and in-hospital cardiac arrest and resuscitation in the pediatric population: the pediatria utstein-style].

PubMed

Tormo Calandín, C; Manrique Martínez, I

2002-06-01

Children who require cardiopulmonary resuscitation present high mortality and morbidity. The few studies that have been published on this subject use different terminology and methodology in data collection, which makes comparisons, evaluation of efficacy, and the performance of meta-analyses, etc. difficult. Consequently, standardized data collection both in clinical studies on cardiorespiratory arrest and in cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the pediatric age group are required. The Spanish Group of Pediatric Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation emphasizes that recommendations must be simple and easy to understand. The first step in the elaboration of guidelines on data collection is to develop uniform definitions (glossary of terms). The second step comprises the so-called time intervals that include time periods between two events. To describe the intervals of cardiorespiratory arrest different clocks are used: the patient's watch, that of the ambulance, the interval between call and response, etc.Thirdly, a series of clinical results are gathered to determine whether the efforts of cardiopulmonary resuscitation have a positive effect on the patient, the patient's family and society. With the information gathered a registry of data that includes the patient's personal details, general data of the cardiopulmonary resuscitation, treatment, times of performance and definitive patient outcome is made.

Improved detection of congestive heart failure via probabilistic symbolic pattern recognition and heart rate variability metrics.

PubMed

Mahajan, Ruhi; Viangteeravat, Teeradache; Akbilgic, Oguz

2017-12-01

A timely diagnosis of congestive heart failure (CHF) is crucial to evade a life-threatening event. This paper presents a novel probabilistic symbol pattern recognition (PSPR) approach to detect CHF in subjects from their cardiac interbeat (R-R) intervals. PSPR discretizes each continuous R-R interval time series by mapping them onto an eight-symbol alphabet and then models the pattern transition behavior in the symbolic representation of the series. The PSPR-based analysis of the discretized series from 107 subjects (69 normal and 38 CHF subjects) yielded discernible features to distinguish normal subjects and subjects with CHF. In addition to PSPR features, we also extracted features using the time-domain heart rate variability measures such as average and standard deviation of R-R intervals. An ensemble of bagged decision trees was used to classify two groups resulting in a five-fold cross-validation accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of 98.1%, 100%, and 94.7%, respectively. However, a 20% holdout validation yielded an accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of 99.5%, 100%, and 98.57%, respectively. Results from this study suggest that features obtained with the combination of PSPR and long-term heart rate variability measures can be used in developing automated CHF diagnosis tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized Riemann hypothesis and stochastic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussardo, Giuseppe; LeClair, André

2018-06-01

Using the Dirichlet theorem on the equidistribution of residue classes modulo q and the Lemke Oliver–Soundararajan conjecture on the distribution of pairs of residues on consecutive primes, we show that the domain of convergence of the infinite product of Dirichlet L-functions of non-principal characters can be extended from down to , without encountering any zeros before reaching this critical line. The possibility of doing so can be traced back to a universal diffusive random walk behavior of a series C N over the primes which underlies the convergence of the infinite product of the Dirichlet functions. The series C N presents several aspects in common with stochastic time series and its control requires to address a problem similar to the single Brownian trajectory problem in statistical mechanics. In the case of the Dirichlet functions of non principal characters, we show that this problem can be solved in terms of a self-averaging procedure based on an ensemble of block variables computed on extended intervals of primes. Those intervals, called inertial intervals, ensure the ergodicity and stationarity of the time series underlying the quantity C N . The infinity of primes also ensures the absence of rare events which would have been responsible for a different scaling behavior than the universal law of the random walks.

Late Paleogene-early Neogene dinoflagellate cyst biostratigraphy of the eastern Equatorial Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awad, Walaa K.; Oboh-Ikuenobe, Francisca E.

2018-04-01

Six dinoflagellate cyst biozones (zone 1-zone 5, subzones 1a and 1b) are recognized in the late Paleogene-early Neogene interval of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959 (Hole 959 A), Côte d'Ivoire-Ghana Transform Margin in the eastern Equatorial Atlantic. The biozones are based on palynological analysis of 30 samples covering a 273.2-m interval with generally fair preservation and good to poor recovery. We propose a new age of Late Eocene (Priabonian) for subunit IIB as opposed to the previously published mid-Early Oligocene age (middle Rupelian). This age assignment is mainly based on the presence of Late Eocene marker taxa, such as Hemiplacophora semilunifera and Schematophora speciosa in the lower part of the studied interval. We also document for the first time a hiatus event within dinoflagellate cyst zone 3, based on the last occurrences of several taxa. This interval is assigned to an Early Miocene age and is barren of other microfossils. Furthermore, we propose new last occurrences for two species. The last occurrence of Cerebrocysta bartonensis is observed in the late Aquitanian-early Burdigalian in this study vs. Priabonian-early Rupelian in mid and high latitude regions. Also, the last occurrence of Chiropteridium galea extends to the latest Early Miocene (Burdigalian) in ODP Hole 959 A; this event was previously identified in other studies as Chattian in equatorial regions, and Aquitanian in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. We suspect that these differences are due to physical (offshore vs. nearshore) and latitudinal locations of the areas studied.

Evidence for a new geomagnetic reversal from lava flows in Idaho: discussion of short polarity reversals in the Brunhes and late Matuyama Polarity Chrons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Champion, D.E.; Lanphere, M.A.; Kuntz, M.A.

1988-01-01

K-Ar ages and paleomagnetic data for basalt samples from a new core hole (site E) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) indicate that the age of the reversed polarity event recorded in Snake River Plain lavas is older than 465 ?? 50 ka (1000 years before present) reported previously by Champion et al. (1981). A review of data documenting short reversal records from volcanic and sedimentary rocks shows that there is evidence for eight polarity subchrons in the Brunhes and two besides the Jaramillo in the late Matuyama. These 10 short subchrons begin to indicate the many short events that Cox (1968) hypothesized must exist if polarity interval lengths have a Poisson distribution. The mean sustained polarity interval length since late Matuyama Chron time is 90 000 years. The similarity of this number with the 105-year period of the Earth's orbital eccentricity suggests anew that linkage between geomagnetic, paleoclimatic, and possible underlying Earth orbital parameters should be evaluated. -from Authors

Learning to tell Neoproterozoic time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knoll, A. H.

2000-01-01

In 1989, the International Commission on Stratigraphy established a Working Group on the Terminal Proterozoic Period. Nine years of intensive, multidisciplinary research by scientists from some two dozen countries have markedly improved the framework for the correlation and calibration of latest Proterozoic events. Three principal phenomena--the Marinoan ice age, Ediacaran animal diversification, and the beginning of the Cambrian Period--specify the limits and character of this interval, but chemostratigraphy and biostratigraphy based on single-celled microfossils (acritarchs), integrated with high-resolution radiometric dates, provide the temporal framework necessary to order and evaluate terminal Proterozoic tectonic, biogeochemical, climatic, and biological events. These data also provide a rational basis for choosing the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) that will define the beginning of this period. A comparable level of stratigraphic resolution may be achievable for the preceding Cryogenian Period, providing an opportunity to define this interval, as well, in chronostratigraphic terms--perhaps bounded at beginning and end by the onset of Sturtian glaciation and the decay of Marinoan ice sheets, respectively. Limited paleontological, isotopic, and radiometric data additionally suggest a real but more distant prospect of lower Neoproterozoic correlation and stratigraphic subdivision.

Estimation of Gutenberg-Richter b-value using instrumental earthquake catalog from the southern Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Sheen, D.; Kim, S.

2013-12-01

The b-value in Gutenberg-Richter relation is an important parameter widely used not only in the interpretation of regional tectonic structure but in the seismic hazard analysis. In this study, we tested four methods for estimating the stable b-value in a small number of events using Monte-Carlo method. One is the Least-Squares method (LSM) which minimizes the observation error. Others are based on the Maximum Likelihood method (MLM) which maximizes the likelihood function: Utsu's (1965) method for continuous magnitudes and an infinite maximum magnitude, Page's (1968) for continuous magnitudes and a finite maximum magnitude, and Weichert's (1980) for interval magnitude and a finite maximum magnitude. A synthetic parent population of the earthquake catalog of million events from magnitude 2.0 to 7.0 with interval of 0.1 was generated for the Monte-Carlo simulation. The sample, the number of which was increased from 25 to 1000, was extracted from the parent population randomly. The resampling procedure was applied 1000 times with different random seed numbers. The mean and the standard deviation of the b-value were estimated for each sample group that has the same number of samples. As expected, the more samples were used, the more stable b-value was obtained. However, in a small number of events, the LSM gave generally low b-value with a large standard deviation while other MLMs gave more accurate and stable values. It was found that Utsu (1965) gives the most accurate and stable b-value even in a small number of events. It was also found that the selection of the minimum magnitude could be critical for estimating the correct b-value for Utsu's (1965) method and Page's (1968) if magnitudes were binned into an interval. Therefore, we applied Utsu (1965) to estimate the b-value using two instrumental earthquake catalogs, which have events occurred around the southern part of the Korean Peninsula from 1978 to 2011. By a careful choice of the minimum magnitude, the b-values of the earthquake catalogs of the Korea Meteorological Administration and Kim (2012) are estimated to be 0.72 and 0.74, respectively.

Persistent anxiety and in-hospital complications after acute coronary syndrome

PubMed Central

AbuRuz, Mohannad Eid

2018-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the effects of pre-event persistent anxiety on in-hospital complications and length of stay (LOS) in patients who experienced acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods: This was a prospective study with patients seeking treatment for ACS events. Anxiety was measured 2 times before the event in 600 patients with pre-existing coronary heart disease (CHD). Patients were followed for 2 years or until they developed an ACS event. 120 patients developed ACS events (rate 20%). Complications and LOS were abstracted from medical records. Results: Persistently non-anxious patients have lower anxiety scores at 3 months follow-up than baseline (mean [standard deviation (SD)], 6.1 [0.24] vs. 3.9 [0.95], P <0.01). Patients with persistent anxiety had significantly higher complication rates than non-anxious patients (mean [SD], 0.71 [0.12] vs. 0.15 [0.11], P <0.05). In a multiple logistic regression, persistent anxiety was an independent predictor of complications. Patients who were persistently anxious were at 5 times higher risk for developing complications (odds ratio = 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.27–38.8, P < 0.05). Conclusion: Anxiety measured up to 2 years before an ACS event was predictive of in-hospital complications. Clinicians caring for patients with CHD need to be as equally aware of the importance of assessing and treating persistent anxiety as clinicians caring for patients hospitalized for an ACS. PMID:29599695

Correlated Flare and CME Energies for the October/November 2003 Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dennis, Brian R.; Haga, Leah; Medlin, Drew; Tolbert, A. Kimberly

2006-01-01

We find a strong correlation between the kinetic energies (KEs) of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the radiated energies of the associated solar flares for the events that occurred during the period of intense solar activity between 18 October and 08 November 2003. CME start times, speeds, mass, and KEs were taken from Gopalswamy et al. (2005), who used SOHO/LASCO observations. The GOES observations of the associated flares were analyzed to find the peak SXR flux, the radiated energy in SXRs (L(sub sxr)), and the radiated energy from the SXR emitting plasma across all wavelengths (L(sub hot)). RHESSI observations were also used to find the energy in non-thermal electrons, ions, and the plasma thermal energy for some events. For two events, SORCE/TIM observations of the total solar irradiance during a flare were also available to give the total radiated flare energy (L(sub total)). We find that the total flare energies of the larger events are of the same order of magnitude as the CME KE with a stronger correlation than has been found in the past for other time intervals. The following rule-of-thumb (good to an order of magnitude for the larger events} can be used to relate flare and CME energies: CME KE l(sub total) 10 L(sub hot) 100 L(sub SXR).

The variation of solar proton energy spectra size distribution with heliolongitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanhollebeke, M. A. I.; Masung, L. S.; Mcdonald, F. B.

1974-01-01

A statistical study of the initial phases of 185 solar particle events was carried out using the data from cosmic ray experiments on IMP 4 and IMP 5. Special emphasis was placed on the identification of the associated solar flare, as the parent flare can be determined for 68% of the events. It appears probable that most of the unidentified increases occur on the non-visible disc of the sun. The existence of a 'preferred-connection' longitude between 20 W and 80 W was established by examining the heliolongitude of all the flare associated events. It is demonstrated that the energy spectra determined at the time of maximum particle in the 20 to 80 MeV or 4 to 20 Mev interval range give results identical to that obtained by the 'distance-travelled' method.

A Visual Analytic for High-Dimensional Data Exploitation: The Heterogeneous Data-Reduction Proximity Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

structure of the data and Gower’s similarity coefficient as the algorithm for calculating the proximity matrices. The following section provides a...representative set of terrorist event data. Attribute Day Location Time Prim /Attack Sec/Attack Weight 1 1 1 1 1 Scale Nominal Nominal Interval Nominal...calculate the similarity it uses Gower’s similarity and multidimensional scaling algorithms contained in an R statistical computing environment

Robust and intelligent bearing estimation

DOEpatents

Claassen, John P.

2000-01-01

A method of bearing estimation comprising quadrature digital filtering of event observations, constructing a plurality of observation matrices each centered on a time-frequency interval, determining for each observation matrix a parameter such as degree of polarization, linearity of particle motion, degree of dyadicy, or signal-to-noise ratio, choosing observation matrices most likely to produce a set of best available bearing estimates, and estimating a bearing for each observation matrix of the chosen set.

Amoebae Anticipate Periodic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saigusa, Tetsu; Tero, Atsushi; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki; Kuramoto, Yoshiki

2008-01-01

When plasmodia of the true slime mold Physarum were exposed to unfavorable conditions presented as three consecutive pulses at constant intervals, they reduced their locomotive speed in response to each episode. When the plasmodia were subsequently subjected to favorable conditions, they spontaneously reduced their locomotive speed at the time when the next unfavorable episode would have occurred. This implied the anticipation of impending environmental change. We explored the mechanisms underlying these types of behavior from a dynamical systems perspective.

Sample size calculation for studies with grouped survival data.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Wu, Yuan; Owzar, Kouros

2018-06-10

Grouped survival data arise often in studies where the disease status is assessed at regular visits to clinic. The time to the event of interest can only be determined to be between two adjacent visits or is right censored at one visit. In data analysis, replacing the survival time with the endpoint or midpoint of the grouping interval leads to biased estimators of the effect size in group comparisons. Prentice and Gloeckler developed a maximum likelihood estimator for the proportional hazards model with grouped survival data and the method has been widely applied. Previous work on sample size calculation for designing studies with grouped data is based on either the exponential distribution assumption or the approximation of variance under the alternative with variance under the null. Motivated by studies in HIV trials, cancer trials and in vitro experiments to study drug toxicity, we develop a sample size formula for studies with grouped survival endpoints that use the method of Prentice and Gloeckler for comparing two arms under the proportional hazards assumption. We do not impose any distributional assumptions, nor do we use any approximation of variance of the test statistic. The sample size formula only requires estimates of the hazard ratio and survival probabilities of the event time of interest and the censoring time at the endpoints of the grouping intervals for one of the two arms. The formula is shown to perform well in a simulation study and its application is illustrated in the three motivating examples. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Categorisation of northern California rainfall for periods with and without a radar brightband using stable isotopes and a novel automated precipitation collector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coplen, Tyler B.; Paul J. Neiman,; Allen B. White,; Ralph, F. Martin

2015-01-01

During landfall of extratropical cyclones between 2005 and 2011, nearly 1400 precipitation samples were collected at intervals of 30-min time resolution with novel automated collectors at four NOAA sites in northern California [Alta (ATA), Bodega Bay (BBY), Cazadero (CZD) and Shasta Dam (STD)] during 43 events. Substantial decreases were commonly followed hours later by substantial increases in hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2HVSMOW where VSMOW is Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) and oxygen isotopic composition (δ18OVSMOW) of precipitation. These variations likely occur as pre-cold frontal precipitation generation transitions from marine vapour masses having low rainout to cold cloud layers having much higher rainout (with concomitant brightband signatures measured by an S-band profiling radar and lower δ2HVSMOW values of precipitation), and finally to shallower, warmer precipitating clouds having lower rainout (with non-brightband signatures and higher δ2HVSMOW values of precipitation), in accord with ‘seeder–feeder’ precipitation. Of 82 intervals identified, a remarkable 100.5 ‰ decrease in δ2HVSMOW value was observed for a 21 January 2010 event at BBY. Of the 61 intervals identified with increases in δ2HVSMOW values as precipitation transitioned to shallower, warmer clouds having substantially less rainout (the feeder part of the seeder–feeder mechanism), a remarkable increase in δ2HVSMOW value of precipitation of 82.3 ‰ was observed for a 10 February 2007 event at CZD. All CZD and ATA events having δ2HVSMOW values of precipitation below −105 ‰ were atmospheric rivers (ARs), and of the 13 events having δ2HVSMOWvalues of precipitation below −80 ‰, 77 % were ARs. Cloud echo-top heights (a proxy for atmospheric temperature) were available for 23 events. The mean echo-top height is greater for higher rainout periods than that for lower rainout periods in 22 of the 23 events. The lowest δ2HVSMOW of precipitation of 28 CZD events was −137.9 ‰ on 16 February 2009 during an AR with cold precipitating clouds and very high rainout with tops >6.5 km altitude. An altitude effect of −2.5 ‰ per 100 m was measured from BBY and CZD δ2HVSMOW data and of −1.8 ‰ per 100 m for CZD and ATA δ2HVSMOW data. We present a new approach to categorise rainfall intervals using δ2HVSMOW values of precipitation and rainfall rates. We term this approach the algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall, and we were able to identify higher rainout and/or lower rainout periods during all events in this study. We conclude that algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall can enable users to distinguish between tropospheric vapour masses having relatively high rainout (typically with brightband rain and that commonly are ARs) and vapour masses having lower rainout (commonly with non-brightband rain).

Monitoring of in-hospital cardiac arrest events with the focus on Automated External Defibrillators--a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Wurmb, Thomas; Vollmer, Tina; Sefrin, Peter; Kraus, Martin; Happel, Oliver; Wunder, Christian; Steinisch, Andreas; Roewer, Norbert; Maier, Sebastian

2015-10-31

Patients with cardiac arrest have lower survival rates, when resuscitation performance is low. In In-hospital settings the first responders on scene are usually nursing staff without rhythm analysing skills. In such cases Automated External Defibrillators (AED) might help guiding resuscitation performance. At the Wuerzburg University Hospital (Germany) an AED-program was initiated in 2007. Aim of the presented study was to monitor the impact of Automated External Defibrillators on the management of in-hospital cardiac arrest events. The data acquisition was part of a continuous quality improvement process of the Wuerzburg University Hospital. For analysing the CPR performance, the chest compression rate (CCR), compression depth (CCD), the no flow fraction (NFF), time interval from AED-activation to the first compression (TtC), the time interval from AED-activation to the first shock (TtS) and the post schock pause (TtCS) were determined by AED captured data. A questionnaire was completed by the first responders. From 2010 to 2012 there were 359 emergency calls. From these 53 were cardiac arrests with an AED-application. Complete data were available in 46 cases. The TtC was 34 (32-52) seconds (median and IQR).The TtS was 30 (28-32) seconds (median and IQR). The TtCS was 4 (3-6) seconds (median and IQR). The CCD was 5.5 ± 1 cm while the CCR was 107 ± 11/min. The NFF was calculated as 41 %. ROSC was achieved in 21 patients (45 %), 8 patients (17 %) died on scene and 17 patients (37 %) were transferred under ongoing CPR to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The TtS and TtC indicate that there is an AED-user dependent time loss. These time intervals can be markedly reduced, when the user is trained to interrupt the AED's "chain of advices" by placing the electrode-paddles immediately on the patient's thorax. At this time the AED switches directly to the analysing mode. Intensive training and adaption of the training contents is needed to optimize the handling of the AED in order to maximize its advantages and to minimize its disadvantages.

Soil organic carbon loss and selective transportation under field simulated rainfall events.

PubMed

Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

2014-01-01

The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future.

Soil Organic Carbon Loss and Selective Transportation under Field Simulated Rainfall Events

PubMed Central

Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

2014-01-01

The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future. PMID:25166015

Reporting rates of yellow fever vaccine 17D or 17DD-associated serious adverse events in pharmacovigilance data bases: systematic review.

PubMed

Thomas, Roger E; Lorenzetti, Diane L; Spragins, Wendy; Jackson, Dave; Williamson, Tyler

2011-07-01

To assess the reporting rates of serious adverse events attributable to yellow fever vaccination with 17D and 17DD strains as reported in pharmacovigilance databases, and assess reasons for differences in reporting rates. We searched 9 electronic databases for peer reviewed and grey literature (government reports, conferences), in all languages. Reference lists of key studies were also reviewed to identify additional studies. We identified 2,415 abstracts, of which 472 were selected for full text review. We identified 15 pharmacovigilance databases which reported adverse events attributed to yellow fever vaccination, of which 10 contributed data to this review with about 107,600,000 patients (allowing for overlapping time periods for the studies of the US VAERS database), and the data are very heavily weighted (94%) by the Brazilian database. The estimates of serious adverse events form three groups. The estimates for Australia were low at 0/210,656 for "severe neurological disease" and 1/210,656 for YEL-AVD, and also low for Brazil with 9 hypersensitivity events, 0.23 anaphylactic shock events, 0.84 neurologic syndrome events and 0.19 viscerotropic events cases/million doses. The five analyses of partly overlapping periods for the US VAERS database provide an estimate of 3.6/cases per million YEL-AND in one analysis and 7.8 in another, and 3.1 YEL-AVD in one analysis and 3.9 in another. The estimates for the UK used only the inclusive term of "serious adverse events" not further classified into YEL-And or YEL-AND and reported 34 "serious adverse events." The Swiss database used the term "serious adverse events" and reported 7 such events (including 4 "neurologic reactions") for a reporting rate of 25 "serious adverse events"/million doses. Reporting rates for serious adverse events following yellow fever vaccination are low. Differences in reporting rates may be due to differences in definitions, surveillance system organisation, methods of reporting cases, administration of YFV with other vaccines, incomplete information about denominators, time intervals for reporting events, the degree of passive reporting, access to diagnostic resources, and differences in time periods of reporting.

IA and PA network-based computation of coordinating combat behaviors in the military MAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zuxun; Fang, Huijia

2004-09-01

In the military multi-agent system every agent needs to analyze the dependent and temporal relations among the tasks or combat behaviors for working-out its plans and getting the correct behavior sequences, it could guarantee good coordination, avoid unexpected damnification and guard against bungling the change of winning a battle due to the possible incorrect scheduling and conflicts. In this paper IA and PA network based computation of coordinating combat behaviors is put forward, and emphasize particularly on using 5x5 matrix to represent and compute the temporal binary relation (between two interval-events, two point-events or between one interval-event and one point-event), this matrix method makes the coordination computing convenience than before.

Heterogeneous Structure and Seismicity beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, S.; Kato, A.; Sakai, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Kurashimo, E.; Obara, K.; Kasahara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Hirata, N.

2010-12-01

Beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) subducts and causes damaged mega-thrust earthquakes. Sato et al. (2005) revealed the geometry of upper surface of PSP, and Hagiwara et al. (2006) estimated the velocity structure beneath Boso peninsula. However, these results are not sufficient for the assessment of the entire picture of the seismic hazards beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area including those due to an intra-slab M7+ earthquake. So, we launched the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area (Hirata et al., 2009). Proving the more detailed geometry and physical properties (e.g. velocities, densities, attenuation) and stress field within PSP is very important to attain this issue. The core item of this project is a dense seismic array called Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) for making observations in the metropolitan area (Sakai and Hirata, 2009; Kasahara et al., 2009). We deployed the 249 seismic stations with a spacing of 5 km. Some parts of stations construct 5 linear arrays at interval of 2 km such as Tsukuba-Fujisawa (TF) array, etc. The TF array runs from northeast to southwest through the center of Tokyo. In this study, we applied the tomography method to image the heterogeneous structure under the Tokyo metropolitan area. We selected events from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified earthquake list. All data of MeSO-net were edited into event data by the selected JMA unified earthquake list. We picked the P and S wave arrival times. The total number of stations and events are 421 and 1,256, respectively. Then, we applied the double-difference tomography method (Zhang and Thurber, 2003) to this dataset and estimated the fine-scale velocity structure. The grid nodes locate 10 km interval in parallel with the array, 20 km interval in perpendicular to the array; and on depth direction, 5 km interval to a depth of less than 50 km and 10 km interval at a depth of more. We used 158,930 (P wave) and 149,308 (S wave) absolute arrival times, and 374,072 (P wave) and 354,912 (S wave) differential travel times. The initial velocity structure is the JMA2001 (Ueno et al., 2001), and the Vp/Vs ratio is set to 1.73 for all grid nodes. We imaged the subducting PSP and Pacific Plate clearly. The depth section of P-wave velocity structure along the TF array clearly shows that thin low-velocity layer which overlies high-velocity layer subducts towards northeast. This low-velocity layer corresponds to the oceanic crust of the subducting PSP. The obtained tomograms combined with seismicity and focal mechanisms indicate that the interior of the subducting PSP is characterized by heterogeneous structures, which could exert a profound influence on the genesis of intra-slab earthquakes. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Earthquake Research Institute cooperative research program.