Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) Program - NaClO 3/Icing Sugar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandstrom, Mary M.; Brown, Geoffrey W.; Preston, Daniel N.

The Integrated Data Collection Analysis (IDCA) program is conducting a proficiency study for Small- Scale Safety and Thermal (SSST) testing of homemade explosives (HMEs). Described here are the results for impact, friction, electrostatic discharge, and differential scanning calorimetry analysis of a mixture of NaClO 3 and icing sugar—NaClO 3/icing sugar mixture. The mixture was found to: be more sensitive than RDX but less sensitive than PETN in impact testing (180-grit sandpaper); be more sensitive than RDX and about the same sensitivity as PETN in BAM fiction testing; be less sensitive than RDX and PETN except for one participant found themore » mixture more sensitive than PETN in ABL ESD testing; and to have one to three exothermic features with the lowest temperature event occurring at ~ 160°C always observed in thermal testing. Variations in testing parameters also affected the sensitivity.« less

Stressful Life Events, Anxiety Sensitivity, and Internalizing Symptoms in Adolescents

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.

2010-01-01

Anxiety sensitivity represents a robust risk factor for the development of anxiety symptoms among both adolescents and adults. However, the development of anxiety sensitivity among adolescents remains inadequately understood. In this study, the authors examined the role of stressful life events as a risk factor for the development of elevated anxiety sensitivity. Anxiety sensitivity was then examined in a longitudinal design as a mechanism linking stressful life events to changes in anxiety symptoms. Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms were assessed in a diverse community sample of adolescents (N = 1,065) at 3 time points spanning 7 months. The results indicated that stressful life events were longitudinally associated with increases in anxiety sensitivity and that certain types of stressful life events, specifically events related to health and events related to family discord, were differentially predictive of increases in anxiety sensitivity. Moreover, anxiety sensitivity mediated the longitudinal relation between stressful life events and anxiety symptoms. Evidence was also found for the predictive specificity of anxiety sensitivity to symptoms of anxiety but not depression. PMID:19685962

Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms in adolescents.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Katie A; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L

2009-08-01

Anxiety sensitivity represents a robust risk factor for the development of anxiety symptoms among both adolescents and adults. However, the development of anxiety sensitivity among adolescents remains inadequately understood. In this study, the authors examined the role of stressful life events as a risk factor for the development of elevated anxiety sensitivity. Anxiety sensitivity was then examined in a longitudinal design as a mechanism linking stressful life events to changes in anxiety symptoms. Stressful life events, anxiety sensitivity, and internalizing symptoms were assessed in a diverse community sample of adolescents (N = 1,065) at 3 time points spanning 7 months. The results indicated that stressful life events were longitudinally associated with increases in anxiety sensitivity and that certain types of stressful life events, specifically events related to health and events related to family discord, were differentially predictive of increases in anxiety sensitivity. Moreover, anxiety sensitivity mediated the longitudinal relation between stressful life events and anxiety symptoms. Evidence was also found for the predictive specificity of anxiety sensitivity to symptoms of anxiety but not depression.

Cost analysis of youth violence prevention.

PubMed

Sharp, Adam L; Prosser, Lisa A; Walton, Maureen; Blow, Frederic C; Chermack, Stephen T; Zimmerman, Marc A; Cunningham, Rebecca

2014-03-01

Effective violence interventions are not widely implemented, and there is little information about the cost of violence interventions. Our goal is to report the cost of a brief intervention delivered in the emergency department that reduces violence among 14- to 18-year-olds. Primary outcomes were total costs of implementation and the cost per violent event or violence consequence averted. We used primary and secondary data sources to derive the costs to implement a brief motivational interviewing intervention and to identify the number of self-reported violent events (eg, severe peer aggression, peer victimization) or violence consequences averted. One-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Total fixed and variable annual costs were estimated at $71,784. If implemented, 4208 violent events or consequences could be prevented, costing $17.06 per event or consequence averted. Multi-way sensitivity analysis accounting for variable intervention efficacy and different cost estimates resulted in a range of $3.63 to $54.96 per event or consequence averted. Our estimates show that the cost to prevent an episode of youth violence or its consequences is less than the cost of placing an intravenous line and should not present a significant barrier to implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events according to Framingham Risk Score in patients with elevated C-reactive protein.

PubMed

MacDonald, Gary P

2010-08-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved rosuvastatin calcium for prevention of cardiovascular events in patients who have elevated levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) but not overt hyperlipidemia. The FDA's decision was based primarily on research reported by the JUPITER (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin) Study Group. The cost-effectiveness of such treatment is unknown. To compare the cost-effectiveness of treatment with rosuvastatin vs standard management, according to Framingham Risk Score (FRS), for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients who have hs-CRP levels of 2.0 mg/L or higher and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels of less than 130 mg/dL. A Markov-type model was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of rosuvastatin (20 mg daily) vs standard management for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients over a 10-year period. Cost data were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Red Book drug reference. Health utility measures were obtained from the literature. Cardiovascular event data were obtained directly from the JUPITER Study Group. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted. Treating patients with rosuvastatin to prevent cardiovascular events based on a hs-CRP level greater than 2.0 mg/L and an LDL-C level of 130 mg/dL or lower would result in estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $35,455 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in patients with an FRS greater than 10% and $90,714 per QALY in patients with an FRS less than or equal to 10%. Results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that in patients with an FRS greater than 10%, the probability that rosuvastatin is considered cost-effective at $50,000 per QALY is approximately 98%. In patients with an FRS less than or equal to 10%, the probability that rosuvastatin is considered cost-effective at $50,000 per QALY is 0%. Compared with standard management, treatment with rosuvastatin is a cost-effective strategy over a 10-year period for preventing cardiovascular events in patients with FRS greater than 10%, elevated hs-CRP levels, and normal LDL-C levels.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorham, P. W.; Allison, P.; DuVernois, M.

The Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) completed its second Long Duration Balloon flight in January 2009, with 31 days aloft (28.5 live days) over Antarctica. ANITA searches for impulsive coherent radio Cherenkov emission from 200 to 1200 MHz, arising from the Askaryan charge excess in ultrahigh energy neutrino-induced cascades within Antarctic ice. This flight included significant improvements over the first flight in payload sensitivity, efficiency, and flight trajectory. Analysis of in-flight calibration pulses from surface and subsurface locations verifies the expected sensitivity. In a blind analysis, we find 2 surviving events on a background, mostly anthropogenic, of 0.97{+-}0.42 events. Wemore » set the strongest limit to date for 10{sup 18}-10{sup 21} eV cosmic neutrinos, excluding several current cosmogenic neutrino models.« less

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Application of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept to structure the available in vivo and in vitro mechanistic data for allergic sensitization to food proteins.

PubMed

van Bilsen, Jolanda H M; Sienkiewicz-Szłapka, Edyta; Lozano-Ojalvo, Daniel; Willemsen, Linette E M; Antunes, Celia M; Molina, Elena; Smit, Joost J; Wróblewska, Barbara; Wichers, Harry J; Knol, Edward F; Ladics, Gregory S; Pieters, Raymond H H; Denery-Papini, Sandra; Vissers, Yvonne M; Bavaro, Simona L; Larré, Colette; Verhoeckx, Kitty C M; Roggen, Erwin L

2017-01-01

The introduction of whole new foods in a population may lead to sensitization and food allergy. This constitutes a potential public health problem and a challenge to risk assessors and managers as the existing understanding of the pathophysiological processes and the currently available biological tools for prediction of the risk for food allergy development and the severity of the reaction are not sufficient. There is a substantial body of in vivo and in vitro data describing molecular and cellular events potentially involved in food sensitization. However, these events have not been organized in a sequence of related events that is plausible to result in sensitization, and useful to challenge current hypotheses. The aim of this manuscript was to collect and structure the current mechanistic understanding of sensitization induction to food proteins by applying the concept of adverse outcome pathway (AOP). The proposed AOP for food sensitization is based on information on molecular and cellular mechanisms and pathways evidenced to be involved in sensitization by food and food proteins and uses the AOPs for chemical skin sensitization and respiratory sensitization induction as templates. Available mechanistic data on protein respiratory sensitization were included to fill out gaps in the understanding of how proteins may affect cells, cell-cell interactions and tissue homeostasis. Analysis revealed several key events (KE) and biomarkers that may have potential use in testing and assessment of proteins for their sensitizing potential. The application of the AOP concept to structure mechanistic in vivo and in vitro knowledge has made it possible to identify a number of methods, each addressing a specific KE, that provide information about the food allergenic potential of new proteins. When applied in the context of an integrated strategy these methods may reduce, if not replace, current animal testing approaches. The proposed AOP will be shared at the www.aopwiki.org platform to expand the mechanistic data, improve the confidence in each of the proposed KE and key event relations (KERs), and allow for the identification of new, or refinement of established KE and KERs.

A Bayesian model for time-to-event data with informative censoring

PubMed Central

Kaciroti, Niko A.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.; Taylor, Jeremy M. G.; Julius, Stevo

2012-01-01

Randomized trials with dropouts or censored data and discrete time-to-event type outcomes are frequently analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier or product limit (PL) estimation method. However, the PL method assumes that the censoring mechanism is noninformative and when this assumption is violated, the inferences may not be valid. We propose an expanded PL method using a Bayesian framework to incorporate informative censoring mechanism and perform sensitivity analysis on estimates of the cumulative incidence curves. The expanded method uses a model, which can be viewed as a pattern mixture model, where odds for having an event during the follow-up interval (tk−1,tk], conditional on being at risk at tk−1, differ across the patterns of missing data. The sensitivity parameters relate the odds of an event, between subjects from a missing-data pattern with the observed subjects for each interval. The large number of the sensitivity parameters is reduced by considering them as random and assumed to follow a log-normal distribution with prespecified mean and variance. Then we vary the mean and variance to explore sensitivity of inferences. The missing at random (MAR) mechanism is a special case of the expanded model, thus allowing exploration of the sensitivity to inferences as departures from the inferences under the MAR assumption. The proposed approach is applied to data from the TRial Of Preventing HYpertension. PMID:22223746

FHR patterns that become significant in connection with ST waveform changes and metabolic acidosis at birth.

PubMed

Rosén, Karl G; Norén, Håkan; Carlsson, Ann

2018-04-18

Recent developments have produced new CTG classification systems and the question is to what extent these may affect the model of FHR + ST interpretation? The two new systems (FIGO2015 and SSOG2017) classify FHR + ST events differently from the current CTG classification system used in the STAN interpretation algorithm (STAN2007). Identify the predominant FHR patterns in connection with ST events in cases of cord artery metabolic acidosis missed by the different CTG classification systems. Indicate to what extent STAN clinical guidelines could be modified enhancing the sensitivity. Provide a pathophysiological rationale. Forty-four cases with umbilical cord artery metabolic acidosis were retrieved from a European multicenter database. Significant FHR + ST events were evaluated post hoc in consensus by an expert panel. Eighteen cases were not identified as in need of intervention and regarded as negative in the sensitivity analysis. In 12 cases, ST changes occurred but the CTG was regarded as reassuring. Visual analysis of the FHR + ST tracings revealed specific FHR patterns: Conclusion: These findings indicate FHR + ST analysis may be undertaken regardless of CTG classification system provided there is a more physiologically oriented approach to FHR assessment in connection with an ST event.

Further Analysis of Variables That Affect Self-Control with Aversive Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perrin, Christopher J.; Neef, Nancy A.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine variables that affect self-control in the context of academic task completion by elementary school children with autism. In the baseline assessment of Study 1, mathematics problem completion was shown to be an aversive event, and sensitivity to task magnitude, task difficulty, and delay to task completion…

Adaptive Information Dissemination Control to Provide Diffdelay for the Internet of Things.

PubMed

Liu, Xiao; Liu, Anfeng; Huang, Changqin

2017-01-12

Applications running on the Internet of Things, such as the Wireless Sensor and Actuator Networks (WSANs) platform, generally have different quality of service (QoS) requirements. For urgent events, it is crucial that information be reported to the actuator quickly, and the communication cost is the second factor. However, for interesting events, communication costs, network lifetime and time all become important factors. In most situations, these different requirements cannot be satisfied simultaneously. In this paper, an adaptive communication control based on a differentiated delay (ACCDS) scheme is proposed to resolve this conflict. In an ACCDS, source nodes of events adaptively send various searching actuators routings (SARs) based on the degree of sensitivity to delay while maintaining the network lifetime. For a delay-sensitive event, the source node sends a large number of SARs to actuators to identify and inform the actuators in an extremely short time; thus, action can be taken quickly but at higher communication costs. For delay-insensitive events, the source node sends fewer SARs to reduce communication costs and improve network lifetime. Therefore, an ACCDS can meet the QoS requirements of different events using a differentiated delay framework. Theoretical analysis simulation results indicate that an ACCDS provides delay and communication costs and differentiated services; an ACCDS scheme can reduce the network delay by 11.111%-53.684% for a delay-sensitive event and reduce the communication costs by 5%-22.308% for interesting events, and reduce the network lifetime by about 28.713%.

Adaptive Information Dissemination Control to Provide Diffdelay for the Internet of Things

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiao; Liu, Anfeng; Huang, Changqin

2017-01-01

Applications running on the Internet of Things, such as the Wireless Sensor and Actuator Networks (WSANs) platform, generally have different quality of service (QoS) requirements. For urgent events, it is crucial that information be reported to the actuator quickly, and the communication cost is the second factor. However, for interesting events, communication costs, network lifetime and time all become important factors. In most situations, these different requirements cannot be satisfied simultaneously. In this paper, an adaptive communication control based on a differentiated delay (ACCDS) scheme is proposed to resolve this conflict. In an ACCDS, source nodes of events adaptively send various searching actuators routings (SARs) based on the degree of sensitivity to delay while maintaining the network lifetime. For a delay-sensitive event, the source node sends a large number of SARs to actuators to identify and inform the actuators in an extremely short time; thus, action can be taken quickly but at higher communication costs. For delay-insensitive events, the source node sends fewer SARs to reduce communication costs and improve network lifetime. Therefore, an ACCDS can meet the QoS requirements of different events using a differentiated delay framework. Theoretical analysis simulation results indicate that an ACCDS provides delay and communication costs and differentiated services; an ACCDS scheme can reduce the network delay by 11.111%–53.684% for a delay-sensitive event and reduce the communication costs by 5%–22.308% for interesting events, and reduce the network lifetime by about 28.713%. PMID:28085097

Specialized Binary Analysis for Vetting Android APPS Using GUI Logic

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

the use of high- level reasoning based on the GUI design logic of an app to enable a security analyst to diagnose and triage the potentially sensitive...execution paths of an app. Levels of Inconsistency We have identified three- levels of logical inconsistencies: Event- level inconsistency A sensitive...operation (e.g., taking a picture) is not trigged by user action on a GUI component. Layout- level inconsistency A sensitive operation is triggered by

Alternatives for Laboratory Measurement of Aerosol Samples from the International Monitoring System of the CTBT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miley, H.; Forrester, J. B.; Greenwood, L. R.; Keillor, M. E.; Eslinger, P. W.; Regmi, R.; Biegalski, S.; Erikson, L. E.

2013-12-01

The aerosol samples taken from the CTBT International Monitoring Systems stations are measured in the field with a minimum detectable concentration (MDC) of ~30 microBq/m3 of Ba-140. This is sufficient to detect far less than 1 kt of aerosol fission products in the atmosphere when the station is in the plume from such an event. Recent thinking about minimizing the potential source region (PSR) from a detection has led to a desire for a multi-station or multi-time period detection. These would be connected through the concept of ';event formation', analogous to event formation in seismic event study. However, to form such events, samples from the nearest neighbors of the detection would require re-analysis with a more sensitive laboratory to gain a substantially lower MDC, and potentially find radionuclide concentrations undetected by the station. The authors will present recent laboratory work with air filters showing various cost effective means for enhancing laboratory sensitivity.

Compendium of Single Event Effects, Total Ionizing Dose, and Displacement Damage for Candidate Spacecraft Electronics for NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; OBryan, Martha V.; Chen, Dakai; Campola, Michael J.; Casey, Megan C.; Pellish, Jonathan A.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Wilcox, Edward P.; Topper, Alyson D.; Ladbury, Raymond L.;

Optimization of reproductive management programs using lift chart analysis and cost-sensitive evaluation of classification errors.

PubMed

Shahinfar, Saleh; Guenther, Jerry N; Page, C David; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor E; Fricke, Paul M; Weigel, Kent A

2015-06-01

The common practice on most commercial dairy farms is to inseminate all cows that are eligible for breeding, while ignoring (or absorbing) the costs associated with semen and labor directed toward low-fertility cows that are unlikely to conceive. Modern analytical methods, such as machine learning algorithms, can be applied to cow-specific explanatory variables for the purpose of computing probabilities of success or failure associated with upcoming insemination events. Lift chart analysis can identify subsets of high fertility cows that are likely to conceive and are therefore appropriate targets for insemination (e.g., with conventional artificial insemination semen or expensive sex-enhanced semen), as well as subsets of low-fertility cows that are unlikely to conceive and should therefore be passed over at that point in time. Although such a strategy might be economically viable, the management, environmental, and financial conditions on one farm might differ widely from conditions on the next, and hence the reproductive management recommendations derived from such a tool may be suboptimal for specific farms. When coupled with cost-sensitive evaluation of misclassified and correctly classified insemination events, the strategy can be a potentially powerful tool for optimizing the reproductive management of individual farms. In the present study, lift chart analysis and cost-sensitive evaluation were applied to a data set consisting of 54,806 insemination events of primiparous Holstein cows on 26 Wisconsin farms, as well as a data set with 17,197 insemination events of primiparous Holstein cows on 3 Wisconsin farms, where the latter had more detailed information regarding health events of individual cows. In the first data set, the gains in profit associated with limiting inseminations to subsets of 79 to 97% of the most fertile eligible cows ranged from $0.44 to $2.18 per eligible cow in a monthly breeding period, depending on days in milk at breeding and milk yield relative to contemporaries. In the second data set, the strategy of inseminating only a subset consisting of 59% of the most fertile cows conferred a gain in profit of $5.21 per eligible cow in a monthly breeding period. These results suggest that, when used with a powerful classification algorithm, lift chart analysis and cost-sensitive evaluation of correctly classified and misclassified insemination events can enhance the performance and profitability of reproductive management programs on commercial dairy farms. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narvet, Steven W.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

Evaluation of Visual Field Progression in Glaucoma: Quasar Regression Program and Event Analysis.

PubMed

Díaz-Alemán, Valentín T; González-Hernández, Marta; Perera-Sanz, Daniel; Armas-Domínguez, Karintia

2016-01-01

To determine the sensitivity, specificity and agreement between the Quasar program, glaucoma progression analysis (GPA II) event analysis and expert opinion in the detection of glaucomatous progression. The Quasar program is based on linear regression analysis of both mean defect (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD). Each series of visual fields was evaluated by three methods; Quasar, GPA II and four experts. The sensitivity, specificity and agreement (kappa) for each method was calculated, using expert opinion as the reference standard. The study included 439 SITA Standard visual fields of 56 eyes of 42 patients, with a mean of 7.8 ± 0.8 visual fields per eye. When suspected cases of progression were considered stable, sensitivity and specificity of Quasar, GPA II and the experts were 86.6% and 70.7%, 26.6% and 95.1%, and 86.6% and 92.6% respectively. When suspected cases of progression were considered as progressing, sensitivity and specificity of Quasar, GPA II and the experts were 79.1% and 81.2%, 45.8% and 90.6%, and 85.4% and 90.6% respectively. The agreement between Quasar and GPA II when suspected cases were considered stable or progressing was 0.03 and 0.28 respectively. The degree of agreement between Quasar and the experts when suspected cases were considered stable or progressing was 0.472 and 0.507. The degree of agreement between GPA II and the experts when suspected cases were considered stable or progressing was 0.262 and 0.342. The combination of MD and PSD regression analysis in the Quasar program showed better agreement with the experts and higher sensitivity than GPA II.

Screening DNA chip and event-specific multiplex PCR detection methods for biotech crops.

PubMed

Lee, Seong-Hun

2014-11-01

There are about 80 biotech crop events that have been approved by safety assessment in Korea. They have been controlled by genetically modified organism (GMO) and living modified organism (LMO) labeling systems. The DNA-based detection method has been used as an efficient scientific management tool. Recently, the multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA chip have been developed as simultaneous detection methods for several biotech crops' events. The event-specific multiplex PCR method was developed to detect five biotech maize events: MIR604, Event 3272, LY 038, MON 88017 and DAS-59122-7. The specificity was confirmed and the sensitivity was 0.5%. The screening DNA chip was developed from four endogenous genes of soybean, maize, cotton and canola respectively along with two regulatory elements and seven genes: P35S, tNOS, pat, bar, epsps1, epsps2, pmi, cry1Ac and cry3B. The specificity was confirmed and the sensitivity was 0.5% for four crops' 12 events: one soybean, six maize, three cotton and two canola events. The multiplex PCR and DNA chip can be available for screening, gene-specific and event-specific analysis of biotech crops as efficient detection methods by saving on workload and time. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Physically-based modelling of high magnitude torrent events with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Ramirez, Jorge; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

High magnitude torrent events are associated with the rapid propagation of vast quantities of water and available sediment downslope where human settlements may be established. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to these events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. The specific contribution of the presented work describes a procedure simulate these damaging events by applying physically-based modelling and to include uncertainty information about the simulated results. This is a first step in the development of vulnerability curves based on several intensity parameters (i.e. maximum velocity, sediment deposition depth and impact pressure). The investigation process begins with the collection, organization and interpretation of detailed post-event documentation and photograph-based observation data of affected structures in three sites that exemplify the impact of highly destructive mudflows and flood occurrences on settlements in Switzerland. Hazard intensity proxies are then simulated with the physically-based FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993). Prior to modelling, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to support a better understanding of model behaviour, parameterization and the quantification of uncertainties (Song et al., 2015). The inclusion of information describing the degree of confidence in the simulated results supports the credibility of vulnerability curves developed with the modelled data. First, key parameters are identified and selected based on literature review. Truncated a priori ranges of parameter values were then defined by expert solicitation. Local sensitivity analysis is performed based on manual calibration to provide an understanding of the parameters relevant to the case studies of interest. Finally, automated parameter estimation is performed to comprehensively search for optimal parameter combinations and associated values, which are evaluated using the observed data collected in the first stage of the investigation. O'Brien, J.S., Julien, P.Y., Fullerton, W. T., 1993. Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 119(2): 244-261.
 Song, X., Zhang, J., Zhan, C., Xuan, Y., Ye, M., Xu C., 2015. Global sensitivity analysis in hydrological modeling: Review of concepts, methods, theoretical frameworks, Journal of Hydrology 523: 739-757.

Impacts of age-dependent tree sensitivity and dating approaches on dendrogeomorphic time series of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel; Stoffel, Markus

2015-05-01

Different approaches and thresholds have been utilized in the past to date landslides with growth ring series of disturbed trees. Past work was mostly based on conifer species because of their well-defined ring boundaries and the easy identification of compression wood after stem tilting. More recently, work has been expanded to include broad-leaved trees, which are thought to produce less and less evident reactions after landsliding. This contribution reviews recent progress made in dendrogeomorphic landslide analysis and introduces a new approach in which landslides are dated via ring eccentricity formed after tilting. We compare results of this new and the more conventional approaches. In addition, the paper also addresses tree sensitivity to landslide disturbance as a function of tree age and trunk diameter using 119 common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and 39 Crimean pine (Pinus nigra ssp. pallasiana) trees growing on two landslide bodies. The landslide events reconstructed with the classical approach (reaction wood) also appear as events in the eccentricity analysis, but the inclusion of eccentricity clearly allowed for more (162%) landslides to be detected in the tree-ring series. With respect to tree sensitivity, conifers and broad-leaved trees show the strongest reactions to landslides at ages comprised between 40 and 60 years, with a second phase of increased sensitivity in P. nigra at ages of ca. 120-130 years. These phases of highest sensitivities correspond with trunk diameters at breast height of 6-8 and 18-22 cm, respectively (P. nigra). This study thus calls for the inclusion of eccentricity analyses in future landslide reconstructions as well as for the selection of trees belonging to different age and diameter classes to allow for a well-balanced and more complete reconstruction of past events.

Position sensitivity in large spectroscopic LaBr3:Ce crystals for Doppler broadening correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasi, N.; Giaz, A.; Boiano, C.; Brambilla, S.; Camera, F.; Million, B.; Riboldi, S.

2016-12-01

The position sensitivity of a large LaBr3:Ce crystal was investigated with the aim of correcting for the Doppler broadening in nuclear physics experiments. The crystal was cylindrical, 3 in×3 in (7.62 cm x 7.62 cm) and with diffusive surfaces as typically used in nuclear physics basic research to measure medium or high energy gamma rays (0.5 MeV

A two-phase Poisson process model and its application to analysis of cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors.

PubMed

Ohtaki, Megu; Tonda, Tetsuji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2015-10-01

We consider a two-phase Poisson process model where only early successive transitions are assumed to be sensitive to exposure. In the case where intensity transitions are low, we derive analytically an approximate formula for the distribution of time to event for the excess hazard ratio (EHR) due to a single point exposure. The formula for EHR is a polynomial in exposure dose. Since the formula for EHR contains no unknown parameters except for the number of total stages, number of exposure-sensitive stages, and a coefficient of exposure effect, it is applicable easily under a variety of situations where there exists a possible latency time from a single point exposure to occurrence of event. Based on the multistage hypothesis of cancer, we formulate a radiation carcinogenesis model in which only some early consecutive stages of the process are sensitive to exposure, whereas later stages are not affected. An illustrative analysis using the proposed model is given for cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Makran considering recently suggested larger maximum magnitudes and sensitivity analysis for GNSS-based early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora, N.; Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.

2014-12-01

Iran and Pakistan are countries frequently affected by destructive earthquakes, as for instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30 000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, nevertheless a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss the possiblity of rather rare huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We analyze the seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 100000 years. All the events are projected onto the plate interface using scaling relations and a tsunami model is run for every scenario. The tsunami hazard along the coast is computed and presented in the form of annual probability of exceedance, probabilistic tsunami height for different time periods and other measures. We show how the hazard reacts to variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and maximum magnitudes.We model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by using an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast by applying it to the 1945 event and by performing a sensitivity analysis.

Real-Time Distributed Algorithms for Visual and Battlefield Reasoning

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

High-Level Task Definition Language, Graphical User Interface (GUI), Story Analysis, Story Interpretation, SensIT Nodes 16. SECURITY...or more actions to be taken in the event the conditions are satisfied. We developed graphical user interfaces that may be used to express such...actions to be taken in the event the conditions are satisfied. We developed graphical user interfaces that may be used to express such task

Measuring the supernova unknowns at the next-generation neutrino telescopes through the diffuse neutrino background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MØller, Klaes; Suliga, Anna M.; Tamborra, Irene; Denton, Peter B.

2018-05-01

The detection of the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) will preciously contribute to gauge the properties of the core-collapse supernova population. We estimate the DSNB event rate in the next-generation neutrino detectors, Hyper-Kamiokande enriched with Gadolinium, JUNO, and DUNE. The determination of the supernova unknowns through the DSNB will be heavily driven by Hyper-Kamiokande, given its higher expected event rate, and complemented by DUNE that will help in reducing the parameters uncertainties. Meanwhile, JUNO will be sensitive to the DSNB signal over the largest energy range. A joint statistical analysis of the expected rates in 20 years of data taking from the above detectors suggests that we will be sensitive to the local supernova rate at most at a 20‑33% level. A non-zero fraction of supernovae forming black holes will be confirmed at a 90% CL, if the true value of that fraction is gtrsim20%. On the other hand, the DSNB events show extremely poor statistical sensitivity to the nuclear equation of state and mass accretion rate of the progenitors forming black holes.

Swift Follow-Up Observations of Candidate Gravitational-Wave Transient Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, P. A.; Fridriksson, J. K.; Gehrels, N.; Homan, J.; Osborne, J. P.; Siegel, M.; Beardmore, A.; Handbauer, P.; Gelbord, J.; Kennea, J. A.;

Swift Follow-up Observations of Candidate Gravitational-wave Transient Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, P. A.; Fridriksson, J. K.; Gehrels, N.; Homan, J.; Osborne, J. P.; Siegel, M.; Beardmore, A.; Handbauer, P.; Gelbord, J.; Kennea, J. A.; Smith, M.; Zhu, Q.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Bao, Y.; Barayoga, J. C. B.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Basti, A.; Batch, J.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Bebronne, M.; Beck, D.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Belopolski, I.; Benacquista, M.; Berliner, J. M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bhadbade, T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogan, C.; Bond, C.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bouhou, B.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campsie, P.; Cannon, K.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Carbone, L.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, W.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Chow, J.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, D. E.; Clark, J. A.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colacino, C. N.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, A.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordier, M.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M.; Coulon, J.-P.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Cutler, R. M.; Dahl, K.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; Del Pozzo, W.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorsher, S.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Eikenberry, S.; Endrőczi, G.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, K.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Farr, B. F.; Favata, M.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Foley, S.; Forsi, E.; Forte, L. A.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M. A.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fujimoto, M.-K.; Fulda, P. J.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J.; Galimberti, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garcia, J.; Garufi, F.; Gáspár, M. E.; Gelencser, G.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gergely, L. Á.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gil-Casanova, S.; Gill, C.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Griffo, C.; Grote, H.; Grover, K.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C.; Gupta, R.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hartman, M. T.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Hayau, J.-F.; Heefner, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M. A.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Herrera, V.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Holtrop, M.; Hong, T.; Hooper, S.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; James, E.; Jang, Y. J.; Jaranowski, P.; Jesse, E.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kasprzack, M.; Kasturi, R.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufman, K.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Keresztes, Z.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, B. K.; Kim, C.; Kim, H.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y. M.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Koranda, S.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kurdyumov, R.; Kwee, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Langley, A.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lawrie, C.; Lazzarini, A.; Le Roux, A.; Leaci, P.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Lhuillier, V.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Lindquist, P. E.; Litvine, V.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Logue, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Macarthur, J.; Macdonald, E.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McDaniel, P.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mingarelli, C. M. F.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Mori, T.; Morriss, S. R.; Mosca, S.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Naticchioni, L.; Necula, V.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nishizawa, A.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Oldenberg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoletti, R.; Papa, M. A.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Pedraza, M.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pihlaja, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Pöld, J.; Postiglione, F.; Poux, C.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramet, C.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Rodriguez, C.; Rodruck, M.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Röver, C.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sankar, S.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Santostasi, G.; Saracco, E.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R. L.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G. R.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Speirits, F. C.; Sperandio, L.; Stefszky, M.; Steinert, E.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S. E.; Stroeer, A. S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szeifert, G.; Tacca, M.; Taffarello, L.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, R.; ter Braack, A. P. M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torre, O.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Ugolini, D.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A. E.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wan, Y.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wiesner, K.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, H.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.

2012-12-01

We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors (within less than 10 minutes) and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory (within 12 hr). Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge." With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime, multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.

Insights into the Molecular Events That Regulate Heat-Induced Chilling Tolerance in Citrus Fruits.

PubMed

Lafuente, María T; Establés-Ortíz, Beatriz; González-Candelas, Luis

2017-01-01

Low non-freezing temperature may cause chilling injury (CI), which is responsible for external quality deterioration in many chilling-sensitive horticultural crops. Exposure of chilling-sensitive citrus cultivars to non-lethal high-temperature conditioning may increase their chilling tolerance. Very little information is available about the molecular events involved in such tolerance. In this work, the molecular events associated with the low temperature tolerance induced by heating Fortune mandarin, which is very sensitive to chilling, for 3 days at 37°C prior to cold storage is presented. A transcriptomic analysis reveals that heat-conditioning has an important impact favoring the repression of genes in cold-stored fruit, and that long-term heat-induced chilling tolerance is an active process that requires activation of transcription factors involved in transcription initiation and of the WRKY family. The analysis also shows that chilling favors degradation processes, which affect lipids and proteins, and that the protective effect of the heat-conditioning treatment is more likely to be related to the repression of the genes involved in lipid degradation than to the modification of fatty acids unsaturation, which affects membrane permeability. Another major factor associated with the beneficial effect of the heat treatment on reducing CI is the regulation of stress-related proteins. Many of the genes that encoded such proteins are involved in secondary metabolism and in oxidative stress-related processes.

Synchronization analysis of voltage-sensitive dye imaging during focal seizures in the rat neocortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takeshita, Daisuke; Bahar, Sonya

2011-12-01

Seizures are often assumed to result from an excess of synchronized neural activity. However, various recent studies have suggested that this is not necessarily the case. We investigate synchronization during focal neocortical seizures induced by injection of 4-aminopyridine (4AP) in the rat neocortex in vivo. Neocortical activity is monitored by field potential recording and by the fluorescence of the voltage-sensitive dye RH-1691. After removal of artifacts, the voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) signal is analyzed using the nonlinear dynamics-based technique of stochastic phase synchronization in order to determine the degree of synchronization within the neocortex during the development and spread of each seizure event. Results show a large, statistically significant increase in synchronization during seizure activity. Synchrony is typically greater between closer pixel pairs during a seizure event; the entire seizure region is synchronized almost exactly in phase. This study represents, to our knowledge, the first application of synchronization analysis methods to mammalian VSD imaging in vivo. Our observations indicate a clear increase in synchronization in this model of focal neocortical seizures across a large area of the neocortex; a sharp increase in synchronization during seizure events was observed in all 37 seizures imaged. The results are consistent with a recent computational study which simulates the effect of 4AP in a neocortical neuron model.

Sensitive and accurate identification of protein–DNA binding events in ChIP-chip assays using higher order derivative analysis

PubMed Central

Barrett, Christian L.; Cho, Byung-Kwan

2011-01-01

Immuno-precipitation of protein–DNA complexes followed by microarray hybridization is a powerful and cost-effective technology for discovering protein–DNA binding events at the genome scale. It is still an unresolved challenge to comprehensively, accurately and sensitively extract binding event information from the produced data. We have developed a novel strategy composed of an information-preserving signal-smoothing procedure, higher order derivative analysis and application of the principle of maximum entropy to address this challenge. Importantly, our method does not require any input parameters to be specified by the user. Using genome-scale binding data of two Escherichia coli global transcription regulators for which a relatively large number of experimentally supported sites are known, we show that ∼90% of known sites were resolved to within four probes, or ∼88 bp. Over half of the sites were resolved to within two probes, or ∼38 bp. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our strategy delivers significant quantitative and qualitative performance gains over available methods. Such accurate and sensitive binding site resolution has important consequences for accurately reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks, for motif discovery, for furthering our understanding of local and non-local factors in protein–DNA interactions and for extending the usefulness horizon of the ChIP-chip platform. PMID:21051353

Skin sensitizers differentially regulate signaling pathways in MUTZ-3 cells in relation to their individual potency

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Due to the recent European legislations posing a ban of animal tests for safety assessment within the cosmetic industry, development of in vitro alternatives for assessment of skin sensitization is highly prioritized. To date, proposed in vitro assays are mainly based on single biomarkers, which so far have not been able to classify and stratify chemicals into subgroups, related to risk or potency. Methods Recently, we presented the Genomic Allergen Rapid Detection (GARD) assay for assessment of chemical sensitizers. In this paper, we show how the genome wide readout of GARD can be expanded and used to identify differentially regulated pathways relating to individual chemical sensitizers. In this study, we investigated the mechanisms of action of a range of skin sensitizers through pathway identification, pathway classification and transcription factor analysis and related this to the reactive mechanisms and potency of the sensitizing agents. Results By transcriptional profiling of chemically stimulated MUTZ-3 cells, 33 canonical pathways intimately involved in sensitization to chemical substances were identified. The results showed that metabolic processes, cell cycling and oxidative stress responses are the key events activated during skin sensitization, and that these functions are engaged differently depending on the reactivity mechanisms of the sensitizing agent. Furthermore, the results indicate that the chemical reactivity groups seem to gradually engage more pathways and more molecules in each pathway with increasing sensitizing potency of the chemical used for stimulation. Also, a switch in gene regulation from up to down regulation, with increasing potency, was seen both in genes involved in metabolic functions and cell cycling. These observed pathway patterns were clearly reflected in the regulatory elements identified to drive these processes, where 33 regulatory elements have been proposed for further analysis. Conclusions This study demonstrates that functional analysis of biomarkers identified from our genomics study of human MUTZ-3 cells can be used to assess sensitizing potency of chemicals in vitro, by the identification of key cellular events, such as metabolic and cell cycling pathways. PMID:24517095

Tidal Sensitivity of Declustered Low Frequency Earthquake Families and Inferred Creep Episodes on the San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babb, A.; Thomas, A.; Bletery, Q.

2017-12-01

Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are detected at depths of 16-30 km on a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield, CA. The LFEs are divided into 88 families based on waveform similarity. Each family is thought to represent a brittle asperity on the fault surface that repeatedly slips during aseismic slip of the surrounding fault. LFE occurrence is irregular which allows families to be divided into continuous and episodic. In continuous families a burst of a few LFE events recurs every few days while episodic families experience essentially quiescent periods often lasting months followed by bursts of hundreds of events over a few days. The occurrence of LFEs has also been shown to be sensitive to extremely small ( 1kPa) tidal stress perturbations. However, the clustered nature of LFE occurrence could potentially bias estimates of tidal sensitivity. Here we re-evaluate the tidal sensitivity of LFE families on the deep San Andreas using a declustered catalog. In this catalog LFE bursts are isolated based on the recurrence intervals between individual LFE events for each family. Preliminary analysis suggests that declustered LFE families are still highly sensitive to tidal stress perturbations, primarily right-lateral shear stress (RLSS) and to a lesser extent fault normal stress (FNS). We also find inferred creep episodes initiate preferentially during times of positive RLSS.

Higher moments of net-proton multiplicity distributions in a heavy-ion event pile-up scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, P.; Mishra, D. K.

2017-10-01

High-luminosity modern accelerators, like the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), inherently have event pile-up scenarios which significantly contribute to physics events as a background. While state-of-the-art tracking algorithms and detector concepts take care of these event pile-up scenarios, several offline analytical techniques are used to remove such events from the physics analysis. It is still difficult to identify the remaining pile-up events in an event sample for physics analysis. Since the fraction of these events is significantly small, it may not be as serious of an issue for other analyses as it would be for an event-by-event analysis. Particularly when the characteristics of the multiplicity distribution are observable, one needs to be very careful. In the present work, we demonstrate how a small fraction of residual pile-up events can change the moments and their ratios of an event-by-event net-proton multiplicity distribution, which are sensitive to the dynamical fluctuations due to the QCD critical point. For this study, we assume that the individual event-by-event proton and antiproton multiplicity distributions follow Poisson, negative binomial, or binomial distributions. We observe a significant effect in cumulants and their ratios of net-proton multiplicity distributions due to pile-up events, particularly at lower energies. It might be crucial to estimate the fraction of pile-up events in the data sample while interpreting the experimental observable for the critical point.

Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: guidance from a decision model.

PubMed

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; Ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

2014-01-29

Asymptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) is associated with greater risk of acute cardiovascular events. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of one time only PAD screening using Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) test and subsequent anti platelet preventive treatment (low dose aspirin or clopidogrel) in individuals at high risk for acute cardiovascular events compared to no screening and no treatment using decision analytic modelling. A probabilistic Markov model was developed to evaluate the life time cost-effectiveness of the strategy of selective PAD screening and consequent preventive treatment compared to no screening and no preventive treatment. The analysis was conducted from the Dutch societal perspective and to address decision uncertainty, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results were based on average values of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations and using discount rates of 1.5% and 4% for effects and costs respectively. One way sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the two most influential model parameters affecting model outputs. Then, a two way sensitivity analysis was conducted for combinations of values tested for these two most influential parameters. For the PAD screening strategy, life years and quality adjusted life years gained were 21.79 and 15.66 respectively at a lifetime cost of 26,548 Euros. Compared to no screening and treatment (20.69 life years, 15.58 Quality Adjusted Life Years, 28,052 Euros), these results indicate that PAD screening and treatment is a dominant strategy. The cost effectiveness acceptability curves show 88% probability of PAD screening being cost effective at the Willingness To Pay (WTP) threshold of 40000 Euros. In a scenario analysis using clopidogrel as an alternative anti-platelet drug, PAD screening strategy remained dominant. This decision analysis suggests that targeted ABI screening and consequent secondary prevention of cardiovascular events using low dose aspirin or clopidogrel in the identified patients is a cost-effective strategy. Implementation of targeted PAD screening and subsequent treatment in primary care practices and in public health programs is likely to improve the societal health and to save health care costs by reducing catastrophic cardiovascular events.

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

2018-04-01

There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

Cost-effectiveness of drug-eluting stents versus bare-metal stents in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Baschet, Louise; Bourguignon, Sandrine; Marque, Sébastien; Durand-Zaleski, Isabelle; Teiger, Emmanuel; Wilquin, Fanny; Levesque, Karine

2016-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients requiring a percutaneous coronary intervention in France, using a recent meta-analysis including second-generation DES. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed in the French National Health Insurance setting. Effectiveness settings were taken from a meta-analysis of 117 762 patient-years with 76 randomised trials. The main effectiveness criterion was major cardiac event-free survival. Effectiveness and costs were modelled over a 5-year horizon using a three-state Markov model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve were calculated for a range of thresholds for willingness to pay per year without major cardiac event gain. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Base case results demonstrated that DES are dominant over BMS, with an increase in event-free survival and a cost-reduction of €184, primarily due to a diminution of second revascularisations, and an absence of myocardial infarction and stent thrombosis. These results are robust for uncertainty on one-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of €7000 per major cardiac event-free year gained, DES has a >95% probability of being cost-effective versus BMS. Following DES price decrease, new-generation DES development and taking into account recent meta-analyses results, the DES can now be considered cost-effective regardless of selective indication in France, according to European recommendations.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Xuanlu M.; Louie, Alexander V.; Ashman, Jonathan

Purpose: Surgery combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the cornerstone of multidisciplinary management of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Although RT can be given in either the preoperative or the postoperative setting with similar local recurrence and survival outcomes, the side effect profiles, costs, and long-term functional outcomes are different. The aim of this study was to use decision analysis to determine optimal sequencing of RT with surgery in patients with extremity STS. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a state transition Markov model, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as the primary outcome. A time horizon ofmore » 5 years, a cycle length of 3 months, and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY was used. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the thresholds at which each strategy would be preferred. The robustness of the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Preoperative RT is a more cost-effective strategy ($26,633/3.00 QALYs) than postoperative RT ($28,028/2.86 QALYs) in our base case scenario. Preoperative RT is the superior strategy with either 3-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT. One-way sensitivity analyses identified the relative risk of chronic adverse events as having the greatest influence on the preferred timing of RT. The likelihood of preoperative RT being the preferred strategy was 82% on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative RT is more cost effective than postoperative RT in the management of resectable extremity STS, primarily because of the higher incidence of chronic adverse events with RT in the postoperative setting.« less

Sensitivity of magnetic field-line pitch angle measurements to sawtooth events in tokamaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ko, J., E-mail: jinseok@nfri.re.kr

2016-11-15

The sensitivity of the pitch angle profiles measured by the motional Stark effect (MSE) diagnostic to the evolution of the safety factor, q, profiles during the tokamak sawtooth events has been investigated for Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR). An analytic relation between the tokamak pitch angle, γ, and q estimates that Δγ ∼ 0.1° is required for detecting Δq ∼ 0.05 near the magnetic axis (not at the magnetic axis, though). The pitch angle becomes less sensitive to the same Δq for the middle and outer regions of the plasma (Δγ ∼ 0.5°). At the magnetic axis, it ismore » not straightforward to directly relate the γ sensitivity to Δq since the gradient of γ(R), where R is the major radius of the tokamak, is involved. Many of the MSE data obtained from the 2015 KSTAR campaign, when calibrated carefully, can meet these requirements with the time integration down to 10 ms. The analysis with the measured data shows that the pitch angle profiles and their gradients near the magnetic axis can resolve the change of the q profiles including the central safety factor, q{sub 0}, during the sawtooth events.« less

Pulse oximetry recorded from the Phone Oximeter for detection of obstructive sleep apnea events with and without oxygen desaturation in children.

PubMed

Garde, Ainara; Dehkordi, Parastoo; Wensley, David; Ansermino, J Mark; Dumont, Guy A

2015-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) disrupts normal ventilation during sleep and can lead to serious health problems in children if left untreated. Polysomnography, the gold standard for OSA diagnosis, is resource intensive and requires a specialized laboratory. Thus, we proposed to use the Phone Oximeter™, a portable device integrating pulse oximetry with a smartphone, to detect OSA events. As a proportion of OSA events occur without oxygen desaturation (defined as SpO2 decreases ≥ 3%), we suggest combining SpO2 and pulse rate variability (PRV) analysis to identify all OSA events and provide a more detailed sleep analysis. We recruited 160 children and recorded pulse oximetry consisting of SpO2 and plethysmography (PPG) using the Phone Oximeter™, alongside standard polysomnography. A sleep technician visually scored all OSA events with and without oxygen desaturation from polysomnography. We divided pulse oximetry signals into 1-min signal segments and extracted several features from SpO2 and PPG analysis in the time and frequency domain. Segments with OSA, especially the ones with oxygen desaturation, presented greater SpO2 variability and modulation reflected in the spectral domain than segments without OSA. Segments with OSA also showed higher heart rate and sympathetic activity through the PRV analysis relative to segments without OSA. PRV analysis was more sensitive than SpO2 analysis for identification of OSA events without oxygen desaturation. Combining SpO2 and PRV analysis enhanced OSA event detection through a multiple logistic regression model. The area under the ROC curve increased from 81% to 87%. Thus, the Phone Oximeter™ might be useful to monitor sleep and identify OSA events with and without oxygen desaturation at home.

Demonstrating Rapid Qualitative Elemental Analyses of Participant-Supplied Objects at a Public Outreach Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwarz, Gunnar; Burger, Marcel; Guex, Kevin; Gundlach-Graham, Alexander; Ka¨ser, Debora; Koch, Joachim; Velicsanyi, Peter; Wu, Chung-Che; Gu¨nther, Detlef; Hattendorf, Bodo

2016-01-01

A public demonstration of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) for fast and sensitive qualitative elemental analysis of solid everyday objects is described. This demonstration served as a showcase model for modern instrumentation (and for elemental analysis, in particular) to the public. Several steps were made to…

Satellite services system analysis study. Volume 2: Satellite and services user model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Satellite services needs are analyzed. Topics include methodology: a satellite user model; representative servicing scenarios; potential service needs; manned, remote, and automated involvement; and inactive satellites/debris. Satellite and services user model development is considered. Groundrules and assumptions, servicing, events, and sensitivity analysis are included. Selection of references satellites is also discussed.

A Process Improvement Study on a Military System of Clinics to Manage Patient Demand and Resource Utilization Using Discrete-Event Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, and Cost-Benefit Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-12

26 Table 3: Optometry Clinic Frequency Count... Optometry Clinic Frequency Count.................................................................. 86 Table 22: Probability Distribution Summary Table...Clinic, the Audiology Clinic, and the Optometry Clinic. Methodology Overview The overarching research goal is to identify feasible solutions to

Gravitational Wave Detection of Compact Binaries Through Multivariate Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atallah, Dany Victor; Dorrington, Iain; Sutton, Patrick

2017-01-01

The first detection of gravitational waves (GW), GW150914, as produced by a binary black hole merger, has ushered in the era of GW astronomy. The detection technique used to find GW150914 considered only a fraction of the information available describing the candidate event: mainly the detector signal to noise ratios and chi-squared values. In hopes of greatly increasing detection rates, we want to take advantage of all the information available about candidate events. We employ a technique called Multivariate Analysis (MVA) to improve LIGO sensitivity to GW signals. MVA techniques are efficient ways to scan high dimensional data spaces for signal/noise classification. Our goal is to use MVA to classify compact-object binary coalescence (CBC) events composed of any combination of black holes and neutron stars. CBC waveforms are modeled through numerical relativity. Templates of the modeled waveforms are used to search for CBCs and quantify candidate events. Different MVA pipelines are under investigation to look for CBC signals and un-modelled signals, with promising results. One such MVA pipeline used for the un-modelled search can theoretically analyze far more data than the MVA pipelines currently explored for CBCs, potentially making a more powerful classifier. In principle, this extra information could improve the sensitivity to GW signals. We will present the results from our efforts to adapt an MVA pipeline used in the un-modelled search to classify candidate events from the CBC search.

Diagnosis of sleep apnea in patients with stable chronic heart failure using a portable sleep test diagnostic device.

PubMed

Araújo, Inês; Marques, Filipa; André, Sandra; Araújo, Manuel; Marques, Sara; Ferreira, Rita; Moniz, Patrícia; Proença, Margarida; Borrego, Pedro; Fonseca, Cândida

2018-01-17

ApneaLink is a portable device for the screening of sleep apnea, a prevalent and underdiagnosed comorbidity in heart failure patients. A prospective cross-sectional study in patients with chronic heart failure was carried out to assess the sensitivity and specificity of apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) measurements using ApneaLink against the standard polysomnography test. Adult patients with a prior hospitalization in an acute heart failure hospital unit were recruited for the study. All participants were tested for sleep apnea using ApneaLink and polysomnography simultaneously during an overnight stay at a sleep laboratory. Global sleep apnea was evaluated according to the AHI, which was analyzed and compared. Subpopulation comparison based on ejection fraction was not realized due to population size. Thirty-five patients with stable chronic heart failure completed the study (mean age 70.9 ± 10.5 years and body mass index 30.0 ± 4.7 kg/m 2 ). Two patients were excluded due to insufficient study duration. ApneaLink had a sensitivity greater than 80% for all AHI measurements, and a specificity greater than 80% for all AHI measurements, except for AHI ≥ 5 events/h (61.5%). The results showed higher sensitivities and specificities at AHI values of ≥ 10 events/h (sensitivity 81.3% and specificity 84.2%) and ≥ 15 events/h (sensitivity 83.3% and specificity 91.3%). Correlation analysis showed that AHI measurements using ApneaLink and polysomnography had a strong and significant correlation (r = 0.794; P < 0.001). Our results suggest that ApneaLink could be used in clinical practice to identify heart failure patients with high (AHI ≥ 15 events/h) and low (AHI < 5 events/h) probability of having sleep apnea, sparing the need for a diagnostic polysomnography and thus potentially impacting prognosis by providing a more cost-effective and timely diagnosis of this non-cardiac comorbidity.

Multivariate analysis techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bendavid, Josh; Fisher, Wade C.; Junk, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

The end products of experimental data analysis are designed to be simple and easy to understand: hypothesis tests and measurements of parameters. But, the experimental data themselves are voluminous and complex. Furthermore, in modern collider experiments, many petabytes of data must be processed in search of rare new processes which occur together with much more copious background processes that are of less interest to the task at hand. The systematic uncertainties on the background may be larger than the expected signal in many cases. The statistical power of an analysis and its sensitivity to systematic uncertainty can therefore usually bothmore » be improved by separating signal events from background events with higher efficiency and purity.« less

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. Methods A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. Results The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90). Conclusions This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials. PMID:20433705

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model.

PubMed

Furiak, Nicolas M; Klein, Robert W; Kahle-Wrobleski, Kristin; Siemers, Eric R; Sarpong, Eric; Klein, Timothy M

2010-04-30

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development. A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age > or =55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death. The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90). This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision trees with multiple branches: use of the Dirichlet distribution in a Bayesian framework.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E; Price, Martin J

2003-01-01

In structuring decision models of medical interventions, it is commonly recommended that only 2 branches be used for each chance node to avoid logical inconsistencies that can arise during sensitivity analyses if the branching probabilities do not sum to 1. However, information may be naturally available in an unconditional form, and structuring a tree in conditional form may complicate rather than simplify the sensitivity analysis of the unconditional probabilities. Current guidance emphasizes using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and a method is required to provide probabilistic probabilities over multiple branches that appropriately represents uncertainty while satisfying the requirement that mutually exclusive event probabilities should sum to 1. The authors argue that the Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate equivalent of the beta distribution, is appropriate for this purpose and illustrate its use for generating a fully probabilistic transition matrix for a Markov model. Furthermore, they demonstrate that by adopting a Bayesian approach, the problem of observing zero counts for transitions of interest can be overcome.

Central sleep apnea detection from ECG-derived respiratory signals. Application of multivariate recurrence plot analysis.

PubMed

Maier, C; Dickhaus, H

2010-01-01

This study examines the suitability of recurrence plot analysis for the problem of central sleep apnea (CSA) detection and delineation from ECG-derived respiratory (EDR) signals. A parameter describing the average length of vertical line structures in recurrence plots is calculated at a time resolution of 1 s as 'instantaneous trapping time'. Threshold comparison of this parameter is used to detect ongoing CSA. In data from 26 patients (duration 208 h) we assessed sensitivity for detection of CSA and mixed apnea (MSA) events by comparing the results obtained from 8-channel Holter ECGs to the annotations (860 CSA, 480 MSA) of simultaneously registered polysomnograms. Multivariate combination of the EDR from different ECG leads improved the detection accuracy significantly. When all eight leads were considered, an average instantaneous vertical line length above 5 correctly identified 1126 of the 1340 events (sensitivity 84%) with a total number of 1881 positive detections. We conclude that recurrence plot analysis is a promising tool for detection and delineation of CSA epochs from EDR signals with high time resolution. Moreover, the approach is likewise applicable to directly measured respiratory signals.

Network hydraulics inclusion in water quality event detection using multiple sensor stations data.

PubMed

Oliker, Nurit; Ostfeld, Avi

2015-09-01

Event detection is one of the current most challenging topics in water distribution systems analysis: how regular on-line hydraulic (e.g., pressure, flow) and water quality (e.g., pH, residual chlorine, turbidity) measurements at different network locations can be efficiently utilized to detect water quality contamination events. This study describes an integrated event detection model which combines multiple sensor stations data with network hydraulics. To date event detection modelling is likely limited to single sensor station location and dataset. Single sensor station models are detached from network hydraulics insights and as a result might be significantly exposed to false positive alarms. This work is aimed at decreasing this limitation through integrating local and spatial hydraulic data understanding into an event detection model. The spatial analysis complements the local event detection effort through discovering events with lower signatures by exploring the sensors mutual hydraulic influences. The unique contribution of this study is in incorporating hydraulic simulation information into the overall event detection process of spatially distributed sensors. The methodology is demonstrated on two example applications using base runs and sensitivity analyses. Results show a clear advantage of the suggested model over single-sensor event detection schemes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MUSiC—An Automated Scan for Deviations between Data and Monte Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Arnd

2010-02-01

A model independent analysis approach is presented, systematically scanning the data for deviations from the standard model Monte Carlo expectation. Such an analysis can contribute to the understanding of the CMS detector and the tuning of event generators. The approach is sensitive to a variety of models of new physics, including those not yet thought of.

MUSiC - An Automated Scan for Deviations between Data and Monte Carlo Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Arnd

2010-02-10

A model independent analysis approach is presented, systematically scanning the data for deviations from the standard model Monte Carlo expectation. Such an analysis can contribute to the understanding of the CMS detector and the tuning of event generators. The approach is sensitive to a variety of models of new physics, including those not yet thought of.

Cost-effectiveness of workplace wellness to prevent cardiovascular events among U.S. firefighters.

PubMed

Patterson, P Daniel; Smith, Kenneth J; Hostler, David

2016-11-21

The leading cause of death among firefighters in the United States (U.S.) is cardiovascular events (CVEs) such as sudden cardiac arrest and myocardial infarction. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of three strategies to prevent CVEs among firefighters. We used a cost-effectiveness analysis model with published observational and clinical data, and cost quotes for physiologic monitoring devices to determine the cost-effectiveness of three CVE prevention strategies. We adopted the fire department administrator perspective and varied parameter estimates in one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses. A wellness-fitness program prevented 10% of CVEs, for an event rate of 0.9% at $1440 over 10-years, or an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1.44 million per CVE prevented compared to no program. In one-way sensitivity analyses, monitoring was favored if costs were < $116/year. In two-way sensitivity analyses, monitoring was not favored if cost was ≥ $399/year. A wellness-fitness program was not favored if its preventive relative risk was >0.928. Wellness-fitness programs may be a cost-effective solution to preventing CVE among firefighters compared to real-time physiologic monitoring or doing nothing.

Analysis and Prediction of Exon Skipping Events from RNA-Seq with Sequence Information Using Rotation Forest.

PubMed

Du, Xiuquan; Hu, Changlin; Yao, Yu; Sun, Shiwei; Zhang, Yanping

2017-12-12

In bioinformatics, exon skipping (ES) event prediction is an essential part of alternative splicing (AS) event analysis. Although many methods have been developed to predict ES events, a solution has yet to be found. In this study, given the limitations of machine learning algorithms with RNA-Seq data or genome sequences, a new feature, called RS (RNA-seq and sequence) features, was constructed. These features include RNA-Seq features derived from the RNA-Seq data and sequence features derived from genome sequences. We propose a novel Rotation Forest classifier to predict ES events with the RS features (RotaF-RSES). To validate the efficacy of RotaF-RSES, a dataset from two human tissues was used, and RotaF-RSES achieved an accuracy of 98.4%, a specificity of 99.2%, a sensitivity of 94.1%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 98.6%. When compared to the other available methods, the results indicate that RotaF-RSES is efficient and can predict ES events with RS features.

Thiopurine S-methyltransferase testing for averting drug toxicity: a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

PubMed Central

Zur, RM; Roy, LM; Ito, S; Beyene, J; Carew, C; Ungar, WJ

2016-01-01

Thiopurine S-methyltransferase (TPMT) deficiency increases the risk of serious adverse events in persons receiving thiopurines. The objective was to synthesize reported sensitivity and specificity of TPMT phenotyping and genotyping using a latent class hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic meta-analysis. In 27 studies, pooled sensitivity and specificity of phenotyping for deficient individuals was 75.9% (95% credible interval (CrI), 58.3–87.0%) and 98.9% (96.3–100%), respectively. For genotype tests evaluating TPMT*2 and TPMT*3, sensitivity and specificity was 90.4% (79.1–99.4%) and 100.0% (99.9–100%), respectively. For individuals with deficient or intermediate activity, phenotype sensitivity and specificity was 91.3% (86.4–95.5%) and 92.6% (86.5–96.6%), respectively. For genotype tests evaluating TPMT*2 and TPMT*3, sensitivity and specificity was 88.9% (81.6–97.5%) and 99.2% (98.4–99.9%), respectively. Genotyping has higher sensitivity as long as TPMT*2 and TPMT*3 are tested. Both approaches display high specificity. Latent class meta-analysis is a useful method for synthesizing diagnostic test performance data for clinical practice guidelines. PMID:27217052

Improved WIMP-search reach of the CDMS II germanium data

DOE PAGES

Agnese, R.

2015-10-12

CDMS II data from the five-tower runs at the Soudan Underground Laboratory were reprocessed with an improved charge-pulse fitting algorithm. Two new analysis techniques to reject surface-event backgrounds were applied to the 612 kg days germanium-detector weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-search exposure. An extended analysis was also completed by decreasing the 10 keV analysis threshold to ~5 keV, to increase sensitivity near a WIMP mass of 8 GeV/c 2. After unblinding, there were zero candidate events above a deposited energy of 10 keV and six events in the lower-threshold analysis. This yielded minimum WIMP-nucleon spin-independent scattering cross-section limits of 1.8×10more » –44 and 1.18×10 –41 at 90% confidence for 60 and 8.6 GeV/c 2 WIMPs, respectively. This improves the previous CDMS II result by a factor of 2.4 (2.7) for 60 (8.6) GeV/c 2 WIMPs.« less

Improved WIMP-search reach of the CDMS II germanium data

DOE PAGES

Agnese, R.

2015-10-12

CDMS II data from the five-tower runs at the Soudan Underground Laboratory were reprocessed with an improved charge-pulse fitting algorithm. Two new analysis techniques to reject surface-event backgrounds were applied to the 612 kg days germanium-detector weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-search exposure. An extended analysis was also completed by decreasing the 10 keV analysis threshold to ~5 keV, to increase sensitivity near a WIMP mass of 8 GeV/c 2. After unblinding, there were zero candidate events above a deposited energy of 10 keV and six events in the lower-threshold analysis. This yielded minimum WIMP-nucleon spin-independent scattering cross-section limits of 1.8×10more » –44 and 1.18×10 –41 at 90% confidence for 60 and 8.6 GeV/c 2 WIMPs, respectively. Furthermore, this improves the previous CDMS II result by a factor of 2.4 (2.7) for 60 (8.6) GeV/c 2 WIMPs.« less

Temporal Informative Analysis in Smart-ICU Monitoring: M-HealthCare Perspective.

PubMed

Bhatia, Munish; Sood, Sandeep K

2016-08-01

The rapid introduction of Internet of Things (IoT) Technology has boosted the service deliverance aspects of health sector in terms of m-health, and remote patient monitoring. IoT Technology is not only capable of sensing the acute details of sensitive events from wider perspectives, but it also provides a means to deliver services in time sensitive and efficient manner. Henceforth, IoT Technology has been efficiently adopted in different fields of the healthcare domain. In this paper, a framework for IoT based patient monitoring in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is presented to enhance the deliverance of curative services. Though ICUs remained a center of attraction for high quality care among researchers, still number of studies have depicted the vulnerability to a patient's life during ICU stay. The work presented in this study addresses such concerns in terms of efficient monitoring of various events (and anomalies) with temporal associations, followed by time sensitive alert generation procedure. In order to validate the system, it was deployed in 3 ICU room facilities for 30 days in which nearly 81 patients were monitored during their ICU stay. The results obtained after implementation depicts that IoT equipped ICUs are more efficient in monitoring sensitive events as compared to manual monitoring and traditional Tele-ICU monitoring. Moreover, the adopted methodology for alert generation with information presentation further enhances the utility of the system.

Toxicogenomics and cancer risk assessment: a framework for key event analysis and dose-response assessment for nongenotoxic carcinogens.

PubMed

Bercu, Joel P; Jolly, Robert A; Flagella, Kelly M; Baker, Thomas K; Romero, Pedro; Stevens, James L

2010-12-01

In order to determine a threshold for nongenotoxic carcinogens, the traditional risk assessment approach has been to identify a mode of action (MOA) with a nonlinear dose-response. The dose-response for one or more key event(s) linked to the MOA for carcinogenicity allows a point of departure (POD) to be selected from the most sensitive effect dose or no-effect dose. However, this can be challenging because multiple MOAs and key events may exist for carcinogenicity and oftentimes extensive research is required to elucidate the MOA. In the present study, a microarray analysis was conducted to determine if a POD could be identified following short-term oral rat exposure with two nongenotoxic rodent carcinogens, fenofibrate and methapyrilene, using a benchmark dose analysis of genes aggregated in Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways and Gene Ontology (GO) biological processes, which likely encompass key event(s) for carcinogenicity. The gene expression response for fenofibrate given to rats for 2days was consistent with its MOA and known key events linked to PPARα activation. The temporal response from daily dosing with methapyrilene demonstrated biological complexity with waves of pathways/biological processes occurring over 1, 3, and 7days; nonetheless, the benchmark dose values were consistent over time. When comparing the dose-response of toxicogenomic data to tumorigenesis or precursor events, the toxicogenomics POD was slightly below any effect level. Our results suggest that toxicogenomic analysis using short-term studies can be used to identify a threshold for nongenotoxic carcinogens based on evaluation of potential key event(s) which then can be used within a risk assessment framework. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Platelet response to aspirin 50 and 100 mg in patients with coronary heart disease over a five-year period.

PubMed

Berent, Robert; Auer, Johann; Franklin, Barry; Schmid, Peter; von Duvillard, Serge P

2011-09-01

Aspirin has been shown to decrease cardiovascular (CV) events by ∼25%. Despite aspirin therapy 10% to 20% of patients with arterial vascular disease develop atherothrombotic events. A meta-analysis of antiplatelet therapy showed a progressive decrease in clinical efficacy of aspirin after 2 years. Whether this is due to a decreased sensitivity to aspirin during long-term therapy remains unclear. A prospective randomized clinical trial with serial monitoring over 5 years was conducted in 100 patients with documented coronary heart disease. We investigated whether long-term treatment with aspirin 50 and 100 mg affects platelet response similarly. Occurrence of CV events was documented. Platelet sensitivity to aspirin, prostacyclin, and adenosine diphosphate-, collagen-, and epinephrine-induced platelet aggregation were evaluated over time. In addition, β-thromboglobulin and inflammatory markers were measured. Four patients were lost to follow-up and 10 patients died. Eleven patients developed nonfatal CV events. In the 2 groups platelet response to aspirin and the referenced variables remained unchanged over 5 years. In patients who developed CV events, the last monitoring interval revealed no difference in platelet response to aspirin. However, patients with nonfatal and fatal CV events showed increased inflammatory markers versus patients without CV events independent of aspirin 50 or 100 mg intake. In conclusion, our study revealed no difference in antiplatelet response to aspirin 50 versus 100 mg or CV events over 5 years in patients with coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interaction of CYP2C19, P2Y12, and GPIIIa Variants Associates With Efficacy of Clopidogrel and Adverse Events on Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Yi, Xingyang; Wang, Yanfen; Lin, Jing; Cheng, Wen; Zhou, Qiang; Wang, Chun

2017-10-01

Clopidogrel is a clinically important oral antiplatelet agent for the treatment or prevention of cerebrovascular disease. However, different individuals have different sensitivities to clopidogrel. This study assessed variants of different genes for association with response to clopidogrel, clinical outcome, and side effects in patients with ischemic stroke (IS). We consecutively enrolled 375 patients with IS after they received clopidogrel therapy, and venous blood samples were subjected to genotyping allelic variants of genes modulating clopidogrel absorption (ATP binding cassette subfamily B1, ABCB1), metabolic activation (cytochrome P450[CYP] 3A and CYP2C19), and biologic activity (platelet membrane receptor [ P2Y12, P2Y1)], and glycoprotein IIIa [ GPIIIa]) and statistically analyzing their interactions with clopidogrel sensitivity (CS) and adverse events, risk of IS recurrence, myocardial infarction, and death during 6 months of follow-up. Adverse events occurred in 37 patients (31 had IS recurrence, 4 died, and 2 had myocardial infarction) during the first 6 months of follow-up. Single locus analysis showed that only the CYP2C19*2(rs4244285) variant was independently associated with CS and risk of adverse events after adjusting covariates. However, there was significant gene-gene interaction among CYP2C19*2(rs4244285), P2Y12(rs16863323), and GPIIIa (rs2317676) analyzed by generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction methods. The rate of adverse events among patients with the 3-loci interaction was 2.82 times the rate among those with no interaction (95% confidence interval: 2.04-8.63). Sensitivity of patients with IS to clopidogrel and clopidogrel-induced adverse clinical events may be multifactorial but is not determined by single gene polymorphisms.

Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events.

PubMed

Collier, Nigel

2011-10-06

Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event-based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as many challanges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex spatio-temporal events. In this article we study the problem of utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of 16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13 languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. The results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup.

Margin and sensitivity methods for security analysis of electric power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Scott L.

Reliable operation of large scale electric power networks requires that system voltages and currents stay within design limits. Operation beyond those limits can lead to equipment failures and blackouts. Security margins measure the amount by which system loads or power transfers can change before a security violation, such as an overloaded transmission line, is encountered. This thesis shows how to efficiently compute security margins defined by limiting events and instabilities, and the sensitivity of those margins with respect to assumptions, system parameters, operating policy, and transactions. Security margins to voltage collapse blackouts, oscillatory instability, generator limits, voltage constraints and line overloads are considered. The usefulness of computing the sensitivities of these margins with respect to interarea transfers, loading parameters, generator dispatch, transmission line parameters, and VAR support is established for networks as large as 1500 buses. The sensitivity formulas presented apply to a range of power system models. Conventional sensitivity formulas such as line distribution factors, outage distribution factors, participation factors and penalty factors are shown to be special cases of the general sensitivity formulas derived in this thesis. The sensitivity formulas readily accommodate sparse matrix techniques. Margin sensitivity methods are shown to work effectively for avoiding voltage collapse blackouts caused by either saddle node bifurcation of equilibria or immediate instability due to generator reactive power limits. Extremely fast contingency analysis for voltage collapse can be implemented with margin sensitivity based rankings. Interarea transfer can be limited by voltage limits, line limits, or voltage stability. The sensitivity formulas presented in this thesis apply to security margins defined by any limit criteria. A method to compute transfer margins by directly locating intermediate events reduces the total number of loadflow iterations required by each margin computation and provides sensitivity information at minimal additional cost. Estimates of the effect of simultaneous transfers on the transfer margins agree well with the exact computations for a network model derived from a portion of the U.S grid. The accuracy of the estimates over a useful range of conditions and the ease of obtaining the estimates suggest that the sensitivity computations will be of practical value.

A meta-analysis of the risk of total cardiovascular events of isosmolar iodixanol compared with low-osmolar contrast media.

PubMed

Zhang, Bu-Chun; Wu, Qiang; Wang, Cheng; Li, Dong-Ye; Wang, Zhi-Rong

2014-04-01

The iso-osmolar contrast agent iodixanol may be associated with a lower incidence of cardiac events than low-osmolar contrast media (LOCM), but previous trials have yielded mixed results. To compare the risk of total cardiovascular events of the iso-osmolar contrast medium, iodixanol, to LOCM. Medical literature databases were searched to identify comparisons between iodixanol and LOCM with cardiovascular events as a primary endpoint. A random-effects model was used to obtain pooled odds ratio (OR) for within-hospital and 30-day events. A total of 2 prospective cross-sectional studies and 11 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (covering 6859 subjects) met our criteria. There was no significant difference in the incidence of within-hospital and 30-day cardiovascular events when iodixanol was compared with LOCM, with pooled OR of 0.72 (95%CI 0.49-1.06, p=0.09) and 1.19 (95%CI 0.70-2.02, p=0.53), respectively. Subgroup analysis showed no relative difference when iodixanol was compared with ioxaglate (OR=0.92, 95%CI 0.50-1.70, p=0.80) and iohexol (OR=0.75, 95%CI 0.48-1.17, p=0.21). However, a reduction in the within-hospital cardiovascular events was observed when iodixanol was compared with LOCM in the RCT subgroup (OR=0.65, 95%CI 0.44-0.96, p=0.03). Sensitivity analyses revealed that three studies had a strong impact on the association of within-hospital cardiovascular events between iodixanol and LOCM. Meta-regression analysis failed to account for heterogeneity. No publication bias was detected. This meta-analysis demonstrates that there is no conclusive evidence that iodixanol is superior to LOCM overall with regard to fewer cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Intracranial mapping of auditory perception: event-related responses and electrocortical stimulation.

PubMed

Sinai, A; Crone, N E; Wied, H M; Franaszczuk, P J; Miglioretti, D; Boatman-Reich, D

2009-01-01

We compared intracranial recordings of auditory event-related responses with electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM) to determine their functional relationship. Intracranial recordings and ESM were performed, using speech and tones, in adult epilepsy patients with subdural electrodes implanted over lateral left cortex. Evoked N1 responses and induced spectral power changes were obtained by trial averaging and time-frequency analysis. ESM impaired perception and comprehension of speech, not tones, at electrode sites in the posterior temporal lobe. There was high spatial concordance between ESM sites critical for speech perception and the largest spectral power (100% concordance) and N1 (83%) responses to speech. N1 responses showed good sensitivity (0.75) and specificity (0.82), but poor positive predictive value (0.32). Conversely, increased high-frequency power (>60Hz) showed high specificity (0.98), but poorer sensitivity (0.67) and positive predictive value (0.67). Stimulus-related differences were observed in the spatial-temporal patterns of event-related responses. Intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech were associated with cortical sites critical for auditory perception and comprehension of speech. These results suggest that the distribution and magnitude of intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech reflect the functional significance of the underlying cortical regions and may be useful for pre-surgical functional mapping.

Intracranial mapping of auditory perception: Event-related responses and electrocortical stimulation

PubMed Central

Sinai, A.; Crone, N.E.; Wied, H.M.; Franaszczuk, P.J.; Miglioretti, D.; Boatman-Reich, D.

2010-01-01

Objective We compared intracranial recordings of auditory event-related responses with electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM) to determine their functional relationship. Methods Intracranial recordings and ESM were performed, using speech and tones, in adult epilepsy patients with subdural electrodes implanted over lateral left cortex. Evoked N1 responses and induced spectral power changes were obtained by trial averaging and time-frequency analysis. Results ESM impaired perception and comprehension of speech, not tones, at electrode sites in the posterior temporal lobe. There was high spatial concordance between ESM sites critical for speech perception and the largest spectral power (100% concordance) and N1 (83%) responses to speech. N1 responses showed good sensitivity (0.75) and specificity (0.82), but poor positive predictive value (0.32). Conversely, increased high-frequency power (>60 Hz) showed high specificity (0.98), but poorer sensitivity (0.67) and positive predictive value (0.67). Stimulus-related differences were observed in the spatial-temporal patterns of event-related responses. Conclusions Intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech were associated with cortical sites critical for auditory perception and comprehension of speech. Significance These results suggest that the distribution and magnitude of intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech reflect the functional significance of the underlying cortical regions and may be useful for pre-surgical functional mapping. PMID:19070540

Simplex and duplex event-specific analytical methods for functional biotech maize.

PubMed

Lee, Seong-Hun; Kim, Su-Jeong; Yi, Bu-Young

2009-08-26

Analytical methods are very important in the control of genetically modified organism (GMO) labeling systems or living modified organism (LMO) management for biotech crops. Event-specific primers and probes were developed for qualitative and quantitative analysis for biotech maize event 3272 and LY 038 on the basis of the 3' flanking regions, respectively. The qualitative primers confirmed the specificity by a single PCR product and sensitivity to 0.05% as a limit of detection (LOD). Simplex and duplex quantitative methods were also developed using TaqMan real-time PCR. One synthetic plasmid was constructed from two taxon-specific DNA sequences of maize and two event-specific 3' flanking DNA sequences of event 3272 and LY 038 as reference molecules. In-house validation of the quantitative methods was performed using six levels of mixing samples, from 0.1 to 10.0%. As a result, the biases from the true value and the relative deviations were all within the range of +/-30%. Limits of quantitation (LOQs) of the quantitative methods were all 0.1% for simplex real-time PCRs of event 3272 and LY 038 and 0.5% for duplex real-time PCR of LY 038. This study reports that event-specific analytical methods were applicable for qualitative and quantitative analysis for biotech maize event 3272 and LY 038.

Mission Assurance Analysis of Theater Ballistic Missile Defense Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

7  Figure 2. MOSAIC Management Paradigm ( Alberts et. al., 2008) .................................. 14  Figure 3. Basic...Success Profiles ( Alberts , et. al., 2008) ................................................... 16  Figure 4. Success Profile with Uncertainty Range... Alberts , et. al., 2008) ....................... 16  Figure 5. Success Profile with Event Sensitivity ( Alberts , et. al., 2008) .......................... 17

Anomalous intraseasonal events in the thermocline ridge region of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean and their regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2012-03-01

The present study explores the mechanisms responsible for the strong intraseasonal cooling events in the Thermocline Ridge region of the southwestern Indian Ocean. Air sea interface and oceanic processes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation are studied using an Ocean General Circulation Model and satellite observations. Sensitivity experiments are designed to understand the ocean response to intraseasonal forcing with a special emphasis on 2002 cooling events, which recorded the strongest intraseasonal perturbations during the last well-observed decade. This event is characterized by anomalous Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean and persistent intraseasonal heat flux anomaly for a longer duration than is typical for similar events (but without any favorable preconditioning of ocean basic state at the interannual timescale). The model heat budget analysis during 1996 to 2007 revealed an in-phase relationship between atmospheric fluxes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation and the subsurface oceanic processes during the intense cooling events of 2002. The strong convection, reduced shortwave radiation and increased evaporation have contributed to the upper ocean heat loss in addition to the slower propagation of active phase of convection, which supported the integration of longer duration of forcing. The sensitivity experiments revealed that dynamic response of ocean through entrainment at the intraseasonal timescale primarily controls the biological response during the event, with oceanic interannual variability playing a secondary role. This study further speculates the role of oceanic intraseasonal variability in the 2002 droughts over Indian subcontinent.

Cross-scale analysis of cluster correspondence using different operational neighborhoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yongmei; Thill, Jean-Claude

2008-09-01

Cluster correspondence analysis examines the spatial autocorrelation of multi-location events at the local scale. This paper argues that patterns of cluster correspondence are highly sensitive to the definition of operational neighborhoods that form the spatial units of analysis. A subset of multi-location events is examined for cluster correspondence if they are associated with the same operational neighborhood. This paper discusses the construction of operational neighborhoods for cluster correspondence analysis based on the spatial properties of the underlying zoning system and the scales at which the zones are aggregated into neighborhoods. Impacts of this construction on the degree of cluster correspondence are also analyzed. Empirical analyses of cluster correspondence between paired vehicle theft and recovery locations are conducted on different zoning methods and across a series of geographic scales and the dynamics of cluster correspondence patterns are discussed.

Ultra-low background mass spectrometry for rare-event searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobson, J.; Ghag, C.; Manenti, L.

2018-01-01

Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) allows for rapid, high-sensitivity determination of trace impurities, notably the primordial radioisotopes 238U and 232Th, in candidate materials for low-background rare-event search experiments. We describe the setup and characterisation of a dedicated low-background screening facility at University College London where we operate an Agilent 7900 ICP-MS. The impact of reagent and carrier gas purity is evaluated and we show that twice-distilled ROMIL-SpATM-grade nitric acid and zero-grade Ar gas delivers similar sensitivity to ROMIL-UpATM-grade acid and research-grade gas. A straightforward procedure for sample digestion and analysis of materials with U/Th concentrations down to 10 ppt g/g is presented. This includes the use of 233U and 230Th spikes to correct for signal loss from a range of sources and verification of 238U and 232Th recovery through digestion and analysis of a certified reference material with a complex sample matrix. Finally, we demonstrate assays and present results from two sample preparation and assay methods: a high-sensitivity measurement of ultra-pure Ti using open digestion techniques, and a closed vessel microwave digestion of a nickel-chromium-alloy using a multi-acid mixture.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aartsen, M. G.; Abraham, K.; Ackermann, M.

Observation of a point source of astrophysical neutrinos would be a “smoking gun” signature of a cosmic-ray accelerator. While IceCube has recently discovered a diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos, no localized point source has been observed. Previous IceCube searches for point sources in the southern sky were restricted by either an energy threshold above a few hundred TeV or poor neutrino angular resolution. Here we present a search for southern sky point sources with greatly improved sensitivities to neutrinos with energies below 100 TeV. By selecting charged-current ν{sub μ} interacting inside the detector, we reduce the atmospheric background while retainingmore » efficiency for astrophysical neutrino-induced events reconstructed with sub-degree angular resolution. The new event sample covers three years of detector data and leads to a factor of 10 improvement in sensitivity to point sources emitting below 100 TeV in the southern sky. No statistically significant evidence of point sources was found, and upper limits are set on neutrino emission from individual sources. A posteriori analysis of the highest-energy (∼100 TeV) starting event in the sample found that this event alone represents a 2.8 σ deviation from the hypothesis that the data consists only of atmospheric background.« less

Low energy analysis techniques for CUORE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alduino, C.; Alfonso, K.; Artusa, D. R.

CUORE is a tonne-scale cryogenic detector operating at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) that uses tellurium dioxide bolometers to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay of 130Te. CUORE is also suitable to search for low energy rare events such as solar axions or WIMP scattering, thanks to its ultra-low background and large target mass. However, to conduct such sensitive searches requires improving the energy threshold to 10 keV. Here in this article, we describe the analysis techniques developed for the low energy analysis of CUORE-like detectors, using the data acquired from November 2013 to March 2015 by CUORE-0, amore » single-tower prototype designed to validate the assembly procedure and new cleaning techniques of CUORE. We explain the energy threshold optimization, continuous monitoring of the trigger efficiency, data and event selection, and energy calibration at low energies in detail. We also present the low energy background spectrum of CUORE-0 below 60keV. Finally, we report the sensitivity of CUORE to WIMP annual modulation using the CUORE-0 energy threshold and background, as well as an estimate of the uncertainty on the nuclear quenching factor from nuclear recoils inCUORE-0.« less

Low energy analysis techniques for CUORE

DOE PAGES

Alduino, C.; Alfonso, K.; Artusa, D. R.; ...

2017-12-12

CUORE is a tonne-scale cryogenic detector operating at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS) that uses tellurium dioxide bolometers to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay of 130Te. CUORE is also suitable to search for low energy rare events such as solar axions or WIMP scattering, thanks to its ultra-low background and large target mass. However, to conduct such sensitive searches requires improving the energy threshold to 10 keV. Here in this article, we describe the analysis techniques developed for the low energy analysis of CUORE-like detectors, using the data acquired from November 2013 to March 2015 by CUORE-0, amore » single-tower prototype designed to validate the assembly procedure and new cleaning techniques of CUORE. We explain the energy threshold optimization, continuous monitoring of the trigger efficiency, data and event selection, and energy calibration at low energies in detail. We also present the low energy background spectrum of CUORE-0 below 60keV. Finally, we report the sensitivity of CUORE to WIMP annual modulation using the CUORE-0 energy threshold and background, as well as an estimate of the uncertainty on the nuclear quenching factor from nuclear recoils inCUORE-0.« less

Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

Impact of a Single Unusually Large Rainfall Event on the Level of Risk Used for Infrastructure Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Jain, S.

2013-12-01

Rare and unusually large events (such as hurricanes and floods) can create unusual and interesting trends in statistics. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is usually used to statistically describe extreme rainfall events. A number of the recent studies have shown that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased over the last century and as a result, there has been change in parameters of GEV distribution with the time (non-stationary). But what impact does a single unusually large rainfall event (e.g., hurricane Irene) have on the GEV parameters and consequently on the level of risks or the return periods used in designing the civil infrastructures? In other words, if such a large event occurs today, how will it influence the level of risks (estimated based on past rainfall records) for the civil infrastructures? To answer these questions, we performed sensitivity analysis of the distribution parameters of GEV as well as the return periods to unusually large outlier events. The long-term precipitation records over the period of 1981-2010 from 12 USHCN stations across the state of Maine were used for analysis. For most of the stations, addition of each outlier event caused an increase in the shape parameter with a huge decrease on the corresponding return period. This is a key consideration for time-varying engineering design. These isolated extreme weather events should simultaneously be considered with traditional statistical methodology related to extreme events while designing civil infrastructures (such as dams, bridges, and culverts). Such analysis is also useful in understanding the statistical uncertainty of projecting extreme events into future.

MIDAS: Software for the detection and analysis of lunar impact flashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madiedo, José M.; Ortiz, José L.; Morales, Nicolás; Cabrera-Caño, Jesús

2015-06-01

Since 2009 we are running a project to identify flashes produced by the impact of meteoroids on the surface of the Moon. For this purpose we are employing small telescopes and high-sensitivity CCD video cameras. To automatically identify these events a software package called MIDAS was developed and tested. This package can also perform the photometric analysis of these flashes and estimate the value of the luminous efficiency. Besides, we have implemented in MIDAS a new method to establish which is the likely source of the meteoroids (known meteoroid stream or sporadic background). The main features of this computer program are analyzed here, and some examples of lunar impact events are presented.

Spatio-temporal distribution of Oklahoma earthquakes: Exploring relationships using a nearest-neighbor approach: Nearest-neighbor analysis of Oklahoma

DOE PAGES

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.; Huerta, Nicolas J.

2017-06-24

Determining the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural and induced seismic events holds the opportunity to gain new insights into why these events occur. Linking the seismicity characteristics with other geologic, geographic, natural, or anthropogenic factors could help to identify the causes and suggest mitigation strategies that reduce the risk associated with such events. The nearest-neighbor approach utilized in this work represents a practical first step toward identifying statistically correlated clusters of recorded earthquake events. Detailed study of the Oklahoma earthquake catalog’s inherent errors, empirical model parameters, and model assumptions is presented. We found that the cluster analysis results are stable withmore » respect to empirical parameters (e.g., fractal dimension) but were sensitive to epicenter location errors and seismicity rates. Most critically, we show that the patterns in the distribution of earthquake clusters in Oklahoma are primarily defined by spatial relationships between events. This observation is a stark contrast to California (also known for induced seismicity) where a comparable cluster distribution is defined by both spatial and temporal interactions between events. These results highlight the difficulty in understanding the mechanisms and behavior of induced seismicity but provide insights for future work.« less

Spatio-temporal distribution of Oklahoma earthquakes: Exploring relationships using a nearest-neighbor approach: Nearest-neighbor analysis of Oklahoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.; Huerta, Nicolas J.

Determining the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural and induced seismic events holds the opportunity to gain new insights into why these events occur. Linking the seismicity characteristics with other geologic, geographic, natural, or anthropogenic factors could help to identify the causes and suggest mitigation strategies that reduce the risk associated with such events. The nearest-neighbor approach utilized in this work represents a practical first step toward identifying statistically correlated clusters of recorded earthquake events. Detailed study of the Oklahoma earthquake catalog’s inherent errors, empirical model parameters, and model assumptions is presented. We found that the cluster analysis results are stable withmore » respect to empirical parameters (e.g., fractal dimension) but were sensitive to epicenter location errors and seismicity rates. Most critically, we show that the patterns in the distribution of earthquake clusters in Oklahoma are primarily defined by spatial relationships between events. This observation is a stark contrast to California (also known for induced seismicity) where a comparable cluster distribution is defined by both spatial and temporal interactions between events. These results highlight the difficulty in understanding the mechanisms and behavior of induced seismicity but provide insights for future work.« less

The effects of anaesthetics on postoperative physiological reactions: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Na; Wang, Jinguo; Zhang, Rui; Wang, Fei; Wang, Rui

2015-10-01

This study aimed to systematically investigate the effects of different anaesthetics on postoperative physiological reactions compared with placebo. The literature search was conducted using three databases: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. Studies published from January 1990 to January 2015 were screened. The language was restricted to English. Heterogeneity was analyzed by the Q test and I(2) statistic. A fixed-effect model was used for homogenous data and a random-effects model for heterogeneous data. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to monitor the incidences of overall adverse events, arterial blood pressure, and cardiac abnormalities. Sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the strength of the meta-analysis, and publication bias was analyzed using Egger's test. A total of 24 articles were included in this meta-analysis. There were 1,810 and 1,806 cases in the anaesthetic group and the placebo group, respectively. The incidence of overall adverse events was significantly lower in the anaesthetic group compared with the placebo group (OR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.84). No publication bias was observed, and no inverse estimates were calculated using sensitivity analysis. There was no significant difference for the incidence of arterial blood pressure (OR = 4.62; 95% CI, 0.90-23.70) and cardiac abnormalities (OR = 1.18; 95% CI, 0.53-2.63) between the two groups. Although the incidence of overall adverse events was decreased in the anaesthetic group, it is impossible to determine whether the use of anaesthetics during surgical operation has a protective effect on postoperative physiological reactions. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interferon beta-1b for the treatment of patients with a first clinical event suggestive of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Caloyeras, John P; Zhang, Bin; Wang, Cheng; Eriksson, Marianne; Fredrikson, Sten; Beckmann, Karola; Knappertz, Volker; Pohl, Christoph; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Shah, Dhvani; Miller, Jeffrey D; Sandbrink, Rupert; Lanius, Vivian; Gondek, Kathleen; Russell, Mason W

2012-05-01

To assess, from a Swedish societal perspective, the cost effectiveness of interferon β-1b (IFNB-1b) after an initial clinical event suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) (ie, early treatment) compared with treatment after onset of clinically definite MS (CDMS) (ie, delayed treatment). A Markov model was developed, using patient level data from the BENEFIT trial and published literature, to estimate health outcomes and costs associated with IFNB-1b for hypothetical cohorts of patients after an initial clinical event suggestive of MS. Health states were defined by Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores. Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs (including both direct and indirect costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters to assess the robustness of model results. In the base case scenario, early IFNB-1b treatment was economically dominant (ie, less costly and more effective) versus delayed IFNB-1b treatment when QALYs were used as the effectiveness metric. Sensitivity analyses showed that the cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to model time horizon. Compared with the delayed treatment strategy, early treatment of MS was also associated with delayed EDSS progressions, prolonged time to CDMS diagnosis, and a reduction in frequency of relapse. Early treatment with IFNB-1b for a first clinical event suggestive of MS was found to improve patient outcomes while controlling costs. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Sensitive Dynamic and Active Pixel Vision Sensor for Color or Neural Imaging Applications.

PubMed

Moeys, Diederik Paul; Corradi, Federico; Li, Chenghan; Bamford, Simeon A; Longinotti, Luca; Voigt, Fabian F; Berry, Stewart; Taverni, Gemma; Helmchen, Fritjof; Delbruck, Tobi

2018-02-01

Applications requiring detection of small visual contrast require high sensitivity. Event cameras can provide higher dynamic range (DR) and reduce data rate and latency, but most existing event cameras have limited sensitivity. This paper presents the results of a 180-nm Towerjazz CIS process vision sensor called SDAVIS192. It outputs temporal contrast dynamic vision sensor (DVS) events and conventional active pixel sensor frames. The SDAVIS192 improves on previous DAVIS sensors with higher sensitivity for temporal contrast. The temporal contrast thresholds can be set down to 1% for negative changes in logarithmic intensity (OFF events) and down to 3.5% for positive changes (ON events). The achievement is possible through the adoption of an in-pixel preamplification stage. This preamplifier reduces the effective intrascene DR of the sensor (70 dB for OFF and 50 dB for ON), but an automated operating region control allows up to at least 110-dB DR for OFF events. A second contribution of this paper is the development of characterization methodology for measuring DVS event detection thresholds by incorporating a measure of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). At average SNR of 30 dB, the DVS temporal contrast threshold fixed pattern noise is measured to be 0.3%-0.8% temporal contrast. Results comparing monochrome and RGBW color filter array DVS events are presented. The higher sensitivity of SDAVIS192 make this sensor potentially useful for calcium imaging, as shown in a recording from cultured neurons expressing calcium sensitive green fluorescent protein GCaMP6f.

Cost-Effectiveness of Apixaban versus Warfarin in Chinese Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Real-Life and Modelling Analyses

PubMed Central

Li, Xue; Tse, Vicki C.; Lau, Wallis C. Y.; Cheung, Bernard M. Y.; Lip, Gregory Y. H.; Wong, Ian C. K.; Chan, Esther W.

2016-01-01

Objectives Many of the cost-effectiveness analyses of apixaban against warfarin focused on Western populations but Asian evidence remains less clear. The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of apixaban against warfarin in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) from a public institutional perspective in Hong Kong. Methods We used a Markov model incorporating 12 health state transitions, and simulated the disease progression of NVAF in 1,000 hypothetical patients treated with apixaban/warfarin. Risks of clinical events were based on the ARISTOTLE trial and were adjusted with local International Normalized Ratio control, defined as the time in therapeutic range. Real-life input for the model, including patients’ demographics and clinical profiles, post-event treatment patterns, and healthcare costs, were determined by a retrospective cohort of 40,569 incident patients retrieved from a Hong Kong-wide electronic medical database. Main outcome measurements included numbers of thromboembolic and bleeding events, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and direct healthcare cost. When comparing apixaban and warfarin, treatment with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than one local GDP per capita (USD 33,534 in 2014) was defined to be cost-effective. Results In the lifetime simulation, fewer numbers of events were estimated for the apixaban group, resulting in reduced event-related direct medical costs. The estimated ICER of apixaban was USD 7,057 per QALY at base-case analysis and ranged from USD 1,061 to 14,867 per QALY under the 116 tested scenarios in deterministic sensitivity analysis. While in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of apixaban being the cost-effective alternative to warfarin was 96% and 98% at a willingness to pay threshold of USD 33,534 and 100,602 per QALY, respectively. Conclusions Apixaban is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in Chinese patients with NVAF in Hong Kong. PMID:27362421

Cost-Effectiveness of Apixaban versus Warfarin in Chinese Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Real-Life and Modelling Analyses.

PubMed

Li, Xue; Tse, Vicki C; Lau, Wallis C Y; Cheung, Bernard M Y; Lip, Gregory Y H; Wong, Ian C K; Chan, Esther W

2016-01-01

Many of the cost-effectiveness analyses of apixaban against warfarin focused on Western populations but Asian evidence remains less clear. The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of apixaban against warfarin in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) from a public institutional perspective in Hong Kong. We used a Markov model incorporating 12 health state transitions, and simulated the disease progression of NVAF in 1,000 hypothetical patients treated with apixaban/warfarin. Risks of clinical events were based on the ARISTOTLE trial and were adjusted with local International Normalized Ratio control, defined as the time in therapeutic range. Real-life input for the model, including patients' demographics and clinical profiles, post-event treatment patterns, and healthcare costs, were determined by a retrospective cohort of 40,569 incident patients retrieved from a Hong Kong-wide electronic medical database. Main outcome measurements included numbers of thromboembolic and bleeding events, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and direct healthcare cost. When comparing apixaban and warfarin, treatment with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than one local GDP per capita (USD 33,534 in 2014) was defined to be cost-effective. In the lifetime simulation, fewer numbers of events were estimated for the apixaban group, resulting in reduced event-related direct medical costs. The estimated ICER of apixaban was USD 7,057 per QALY at base-case analysis and ranged from USD 1,061 to 14,867 per QALY under the 116 tested scenarios in deterministic sensitivity analysis. While in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of apixaban being the cost-effective alternative to warfarin was 96% and 98% at a willingness to pay threshold of USD 33,534 and 100,602 per QALY, respectively. Apixaban is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in Chinese patients with NVAF in Hong Kong.

Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dralle, David N.; Karst, Nathaniel J.; Charalampous, Kyriakos; Veenstra, Andrew; Thompson, Sally E.

2017-01-01

The study of single streamflow recession events is receiving increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing streamflow recessions often involves describing the similarities and differences between model parameters fitted to each recession time series. Significant methodological sensitivity has been identified in the fitting and parameterization of models that describe populations of many recessions, but the dependence of estimated model parameters on methodological choices has not been evaluated for event-by-event forms of analysis. Here, we use daily streamflow data from 16 catchments in northern California and southern Oregon to investigate how combinations of commonly used streamflow recession definitions and fitting techniques impact parameter estimates of a widely used power law recession model. Results are relevant to watersheds that are relatively steep, forested, and rain-dominated. The highly seasonal mediterranean climate of northern California and southern Oregon ensures study catchments explore a wide range of recession behaviors and wetness states, ideal for a sensitivity analysis. In such catchments, we show the following: (i) methodological decisions, including ones that have received little attention in the literature, can impact parameter value estimates and model goodness of fit; (ii) the central tendencies of event-scale recession parameter probability distributions are largely robust to methodological choices, in the sense that differing methods rank catchments similarly according to the medians of these distributions; (iii) recession parameter distributions are method-dependent, but roughly catchment-independent, such that changing the choices made about a particular method affects a given parameter in similar ways across most catchments; and (iv) the observed correlative relationship between the power-law recession scale parameter and catchment antecedent wetness varies depending on recession definition and fitting choices. Considering study results, we recommend a combination of four key methodological decisions to maximize the quality of fitted recession curves, and to minimize bias in the related populations of fitted recession parameters.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of valsartan versus losartan and the effect of switching.

PubMed

Baker, Timothy M; Goh, Jowern; Johnston, Atholl; Falvey, Heather; Brede, Yvonne; Brown, Ruth E

2012-01-01

Losartan will shortly become generic, and this may encourage switching to the generic drug. However, valsartan was shown in a meta-analysis to be statistically superior in lowering blood pressure (BP) to losartan. This paper examines the costs of treatment with these two drugs and the potential consequences of switching established valsartan patients to generic losartan. A US payer cost-effectiveness model was developed incorporating the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events related to systolic blood pressure (SBP) control comparing valsartan to continual losartan and switching from valsartan to generic losartan. The model, based upon a meta-analysis by Nixon et al. and Framingham equations, included first CVD event costs calculated from US administrative data sets and utility values from published sources. The modeled outcomes were number of CVD events, costs and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and life-year (LY). Fewer patients had fatal and non-fatal CVD events with valsartan therapy compared with continual losartan and with patients switched from valsartan to generic losartan. The base-case model results indicated that continued treatment with valsartan had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $27,268 and $25,460 per life year gained, and $32,313 and $30,170 per QALY gained, relative to continual losartan and switching treatments, respectively. Sensitivity analyses found that patient discontinuation post-switching was a sensitive parameter. Including efficacy offsets with lowered adherence or discontinuation resulted in more favorable ratios for valsartan compared to switching therapy. The model does not evaluate post-primary CVD events and considers change in SBP from baseline level as the sole predictor of CVD risk. Valsartan appears to be cost-effective compared to switching to generic losartan and switching to the generic drug does not support a cost offset argument over the longer term. Physicians should continue to consider the needs of individual patient and not cost offsets.

North Sea Storm Driving of Extreme Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Gray, Suzanne; Jones, Oliver

2017-04-01

The relationship between storms and extreme ocean waves in the North sea is assessed using a long-period wave dataset and storms identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). An ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to provide information on the spatial and temporal forcing from mean sea-level pressure and surface wind associated with extreme ocean wave height responses. Extreme ocean waves in the central North Sea arise due to either the winds in the cold conveyor belt (northerly-wind events) or winds in the warm conveyor belt (southerly-wind events) of extratropical cyclones. The largest wave heights are associated with northerly-wind events which tend to have stronger wind speeds and occur as the cold conveyor belt wraps rearwards round the cyclone to the cold side of the warm front. The northerly-wind events also provide a larger fetch to the central North Sea. Southerly-wind events are associated with the warm conveyor belts of intense extratropical storms developing in the right upper-tropospheric jet exit region. There is predictability in the extreme ocean wave events up to two days before the event associated with a strengthening of a high pressure system to the west (northerly-wind events) and south-west (southerly-wind events) of the British Isles. This acts to increase the pressure gradient over the British Isles and therefore drive stronger wind speeds in the central North sea.

Reducing uncertainty in Climate Response Time Scale by Bayesian Analysis of the 8.2 ka event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, A.; Held, H.; Bauer, E.; Schneider von Deimling, T.

2009-04-01

We analyze the possibility of uncertainty reduction in Climate Response Time Scale by utilizing Greenland ice-core data that contain the 8.2 ka event within a Bayesian model-data intercomparison with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3. Within a stochastic version of the model it has been possible to mimic the 8.2 ka event within a plausible experimental setting and with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modeling exercises [1]. The simulation of the centennial cold event is effectively determined by the oceanic cooling rate which depends largely on the ocean diffusivity described by diffusion coefficients of relatively wide uncertainty ranges. The idea now is to discriminate between the different values of diffusivities according to their likelihood to rightly represent the duration of the 8.2 ka event and thus to exploit the paleo data to constrain uncertainty in model parameters in analogue to [2]. Implementing this inverse Bayesian Analysis with this model the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically in addition to the uncertain model parameters: While mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study [3] the Bayesian Analysis showed a reduction of uncertainty in vertical ocean diffusivity parameters of factor 2 compared to prior knowledge. This learning effect on the model parameters is propagated to other model outputs of interest; e.g. the inverse ocean heat capacity, which is important for the dominant time scale of climate response to anthropogenic forcing which, in combination with climate sensitivity, strongly influences the climate systems reaction for the near- and medium-term future. 1 References [1] E. Bauer, A. Ganopolski, M. Montoya: Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from lake Agassiz. Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, (2004) [2] T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8 (2006). [3] A. Lorenz, Diploma Thesis, U Potsdam (2007).

Kindling of life stress in bipolar disorder: comparison of sensitization and autonomy models.

PubMed

Weiss, Rachel B; Stange, Jonathan P; Boland, Elaine M; Black, Shimrit K; LaBelle, Denise R; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2015-02-01

Research on life stress in bipolar disorder largely fails to account for the possibility of a dynamic relationship between psychosocial stress and episode initiation. The kindling hypothesis (Post, 1992) states that over the course of recurrent affective disorders, there is a weakening temporal relationship between major life stress and episode initiation that could reflect either a progressive sensitization or progressive autonomy to life stress. The present study involved a comprehensive and precise examination of the kindling hypothesis in 102 participants with bipolar II disorder that allowed for a direct comparison of sensitization and autonomy models. Polarity-specific tests were conducted across the continuum of event severity with respect to impact and frequency of life events. Hypotheses were polarity- and event-valence specific and were based on the stress sensitization model. Results were only partially consistent with the sensitization model: Individuals with more prior mood episodes had an increased frequency of minor negative events before depression and of minor positive events before hypomania. However, the number of past episodes did not moderate relationships between life events and time until prospective onset of mood episodes. These results are more consistent with a sensitization than an autonomy model, but several predictions of the sensitization model were not supported. Methodological strengths, limitations, and implications are discussed regarding putative changes in stress reactivity that may occur with repeated exposure to mood episodes in bipolar II disorder. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

MUSiC - A general search for deviations from monte carlo predictions in CMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biallass, Philipp A.; CMS Collaboration

2009-06-01

A model independent analysis approach in CMS is presented, systematically scanning the data for deviations from the Monte Carlo expectation. Such an analysis can contribute to the understanding of the detector and the tuning of the event generators. Furthermore, due to the minimal theoretical bias this approach is sensitive to a variety of models of new physics, including those not yet thought of. Events are classified into event classes according to their particle content (muons, electrons, photons, jets and missing transverse energy). A broad scan of various distributions is performed, identifying significant deviations from the Monte Carlo simulation. The importance of systematic uncertainties is outlined, which are taken into account rigorously within the algorithm. Possible detector effects and generator issues, as well as models involving Supersymmetry and new heavy gauge bosons are used as an input to the search algorithm.

MUSiC - A Generic Search for Deviations from Monte Carlo Predictions in CMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hof, Carsten

2009-05-01

We present a model independent analysis approach, systematically scanning the data for deviations from the Standard Model Monte Carlo expectation. Such an analysis can contribute to the understanding of the CMS detector and the tuning of the event generators. Furthermore, due to the minimal theoretical bias this approach is sensitive to a variety of models of new physics, including those not yet thought of. Events are classified into event classes according to their particle content (muons, electrons, photons, jets and missing transverse energy). A broad scan of various distributions is performed, identifying significant deviations from the Monte Carlo simulation. We outline the importance of systematic uncertainties, which are taken into account rigorously within the algorithm. Possible detector effects and generator issues, as well as models involving supersymmetry and new heavy gauge bosons have been used as an input to the search algorithm.

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

2017-06-01

Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that precipitation intensities during the investigated landslide-triggering rainfall events were already close to or above the soil's infiltration capacity.

A Preliminary Analysis of Self-Control with Aversive Events: the Effects of Task Magnitude and Delay on the Choices of Children with Autism

PubMed Central

Lerman, Dorothea C; Addison, Laura R; Kodak, Tiffany

2006-01-01

When faced with a choice between two aversive events, a person exhibits self-control by choosing a smaller, more immediate aversive event over a larger, delayed aversive event. Task demands are often aversive to children with autism and other developmental disabilities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate behavioral sensitivity to differences in the amount and delay of tasks as part of a preliminary study on self-control. Participants were 2 children with autism who engaged in problem behavior maintained by escape. Results indicated a lack of self-control with respect to choosing between two aversive tasks and suggested potential strategies for increasing self-control (i.e., choosing a small immediate task over a large delayed task). PMID:16813043

A preliminary analysis of self-control with aversive events: the effects of task magnitude and delay on the choices of children with autism.

PubMed

Lerman, Dorothea C; Addison, Laura R; Kodak, Tiffany

2006-01-01

When faced with a choice between two aversive events, a person exhibits self-control by choosing a smaller, more immediate aversive event over a larger, delayed aversive event. Task demands are often aversive to children with autism and other developmental disabilities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate behavioral sensitivity to differences in the amount and delay of tasks as part of a preliminary study on self-control. Participants were 2 children with autism who engaged in problem behavior maintained by escape. Results indicated a lack of self-control with respect to choosing between two aversive tasks and suggested potential strategies for increasing self-control (i.e., choosing a small immediate task over a large delayed task).

Searches for New Symmetries in pp Collisions with the Razor Kinematic Variables at $$\\mathbf{\\sqrt{s}} =$$ 7 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogan, Christopher S.

2013-02-12

The construction and LHC phenomenology of the razor variables M R, an event-by-event indicator of the heavy particle mass scale, and R, a dimensionless variable related to the transverse momentum imbalance of events and missing transverse energy, are presented. The variables are used in the analysis of the first proton-proton collisions dataset at CMS (35 pb -1) in a search for superpartners of the quarks and gluons, targeting indirect hints of dark matter candidates in the context of supersymmetric theoretical frameworks. The analysis produced the highest sensitivity results for SUSY to date and extended the LHC reach far beyond themore » previous Tevatron results. A generalized inclusive search is subsequently presented for new heavy particle pairs produced in √s = 7 TeV proton-proton collisions at the LHC using 4.7±0.1 fb -1 of integrated luminosity from the second LHC run of 2011. The selected events are analyzed in the 2D razor-space of MR and R and the analysis is performed in 12 tiers of all-hadronic, single and double leptons final states in the presence and absence of b-quarks, probing the third generation sector using the event heavy- flavor content. The search is sensitive to generic supersymmetry models with minimal assumptions about the superpartner decay chains. No excess is observed in the number or shape of event yields relative to Standard Model predictions. Exclusion limits are derived in the CMSSM framework with gluino masses up to 800 GeV and squark masses up to 1.35 TeV excluded at 95% confidence level, depending on the model parameters. The results are also interpreted for a collection of simplified models, in which gluinos are excluded with masses as large as 1.1 TeV, for small neutralino masses, and the first-two generation squarks, stops and sbottoms are excluded for masses up to about 800, 425 and 400 GeV, respectively.« less

Utilization of independent component analysis for accurate pathological ripple detection in intracranial EEG recordings recorded extra- and intra-operatively

PubMed Central

Shimamoto, Shoichi; Waldman, Zachary J.; Orosz, Iren; Song, Inkyung; Bragin, Anatol; Fried, Itzhak; Engel, Jerome; Staba, Richard; Sharan, Ashwini; Wu, Chengyuan; Sperling, Michael R.; Weiss, Shennan A.

2018-01-01

Objective To develop and validate a detector that identifies ripple (80–200 Hz) events in intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings in a referential montage and utilizes independent component analysis (ICA) to eliminate or reduce high-frequency artifact contamination. Also, investigate the correspondence of detected ripples and the seizure onset zone (SOZ). Methods iEEG recordings from 16 patients were first band-pass filtered (80–600 Hz) and Infomax ICA was next applied to derive the first independent component (IC1). IC1 was subsequently pruned, and an artifact index was derived to reduce the identification of high-frequency events introduced by the reference electrode signal. A Hilbert detector identified ripple events in the processed iEEG recordings using amplitude and duration criteria. The identified ripple events were further classified and characterized as true or false ripple on spikes, or ripples on oscillations by utilizing a topographical analysis to their time-frequency plot, and confirmed by visual inspection. Results The signal to noise ratio was improved by pruning IC1. The precision of the detector for ripple events was 91.27 ± 4.3%, and the sensitivity of the detector was 79.4 ± 3.0% (N = 16 patients, 5842 ripple events). The sensitivity and precision of the detector was equivalent in iEEG recordings obtained during sleep or intra-operatively. Across all the patients, true ripple on spike rates and also the rates of false ripple on spikes, that were generated due to filter ringing, classified the seizure onset zone (SOZ) with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of >76%. The magnitude and spectral content of true ripple on spikes generated in the SOZ was distinct as compared with the ripples generated in the NSOZ (p < .001). Conclusions Utilizing ICA to analyze iEEG recordings in referential montage provides many benefits to the study of high-frequency oscillations. The ripple rates and properties defined using this approach may accurately delineate the seizure onset zone. Significance Strategies to improve the spatial resolution of intracranial EEG and reduce artifact can help improve the clinical utility of HFO biomarkers. PMID:29113719

New Perspectives on Long Run-out Rock Avalanches: A Dynamic Analysis of 20 Events in the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin, J.; Rosser, N. J.; Dunning, S.; Hardy, R. J.; Karim, K.; Szczucinski, W.; Norman, E. C.; Strzelecki, M.; Drewniak, M.

2014-12-01

Risk assessments of the threat posed by rock avalanches rely upon numerical modelling of potential run-out and spreading, and are contingent upon a thorough understanding of the flow dynamics inferred from deposits left by previous events. Few records exist of multiple rock avalanches with boundary conditions sufficiently consistent to develop a set of more generalised rules for behaviour across events. A unique cluster of 20 large (3 x 106 - 94 x 106 m3) rock avalanche deposits along the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland, offers a unique opportunity to model a large sample of adjacent events sourced from a stretch of coastal mountains of relatively uniform geology and structure. Our simulations of these events were performed using VolcFlow, a geophysical mass flow code developed to simulate volcanic debris avalanches. Rheological calibration of the model was performed using a well-constrained event at Paatuut (AD 2000). The best-fit simulation assumes a constant retarding stress with a collisional stress coefficient (T0 = 250 kPa, ξ = 0.01), and simulates run-out to within ±0.3% of that observed. Despite being widely used to simulate rock avalanche propagation, other models, that assume either a Coulomb frictional or a Voellmy rheology, failed to reproduce the observed event characteristics and deposit distribution at Paatuut. We applied this calibration to 19 other events, simulating rock avalanche motion across 3D terrain of varying levels of complexity. Our findings illustrate the utility and sensitivity of modelling a single rock avalanche satisfactorily as a function of rheology, alongside the validity of applying the same parameters elsewhere, even within similar boundary conditions. VolcFlow can plausibly account for the observed morphology of a series of deposits emplaced by events of different types, although its performance is sensitive to a range of topographic and geometric factors. These exercises show encouraging results in the model's ability to simulate a series of events using a single set of parameters obtained by back-analysis of the Paatuut event alone. The results also hold important implications for our process understanding of rock avalanches in confined fjord settings, where correctly modelling material flux at the point of entry into the water is critical in tsunami generation.

River Sensitivity and Catchment Connectivity: Key Controls on Geomorphic Response and Effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisenby, P.; Fryirs, K.; Croke, J.

2016-12-01

The sensitivity of river channels to adjustment and the dynamics of sediment connectivity along a channel network are key controls on the capacity (ability) for a river system to adjust, i.e. the severity, distribution, and type of geomorphic response to disturbance events. In turn, the cumulative impact of geomorphic responses compared with event magnitude will determine the geomorphic effectiveness of a single disturbance event. River sensitivity and sediment connectivity can change significantly over space and time, and vary with changes in internal factors such as channel type and geomorphic landform and external factors such as event sequencing and lithological controls. Correspondingly, the capacity for a geomorphic system to respond to disturbance events will also vary, so that geomorphic effectiveness is not definitively characterized by a static relationship between event magnitude and geomorphic response, but rather is a dynamic comparison between geomorphic response and an actively changing capacity for geomorphic adjustment. Herein, we use the Lockyer Valley, Queensland as a case study to illustrate the variability of river sensitivity and sediment connectivity. We relate this variability to the potential and capacity for geomorphic channel response. We find that the sensitivity to and capacity for geomorphic adjustment varies significantly with channel morphometry and valley position. Additionally, the nature of bedload sediment connectivity changes with the distribution of geomorphic landforms and channel weirs that can impede sediment transference through the system. This variability of river sensitivity and sediment connectivity will control the nature of geomorphic response to disturbance events within the Lockyer Valley. Ultimately, determinations of geomorphic effectiveness for disturbance events will depend on comparisons of their geomorphic impacts with the capacity of the Lockyer geomorphic system to respond.

Experimental Observations and Theoretical Modeling of VLF Scattering During LEP Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, M. F.; Moore, R. C.

2012-12-01

Recent experimental observations of very low frequency (VLF) scattering during lightning-induced election precipitation (LEP) events are presented. A spread spectrum analysis technique is applied to these observations, demonstrating a significant dependence on frequency. For LEP events, the scattered field amplitude and phase both exhibit strong frequency dependence, as do the event onset delays (relative to the causative lightning flash) and the event onset durations. The experimental observations are compared with the predictions of an Earth-ionosphere waveguide propagation and scattering model. The Long-Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) code is used to demonstrate that the scattered field amplitude and phase depend sensitively on the electrical properties of the scattering body and the ionosphere between the scatterer and the receiver. The observed frequency-dependent onset times and durations, on the other hand, are attributed to the scattering source characteristics. These measurements can also be used to study radiation belt dynamics.

Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and the Implications for Air Quality.

PubMed

Hou, Pei; Wu, Shiliang

2016-03-31

Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data further indicates strong sensitivities of air quality (including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes) to extreme meteorological events. For example, we find that in the United States the probability of severe ozone pollution when there are heat waves could be up to seven times of the average probability during summertime, while temperature inversions in wintertime could enhance the probability of severe particulate matter pollution by more than a factor of two. We have also identified significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of air quality to extreme air pollution meteorology.

Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein but not cystatin C predict cardiovascular events in male patients with peripheral artery disease independently of ambulatory pulse pressure.

PubMed

Skoglund, Per H; Arpegård, Johannes; Ostergren, Jan; Svensson, Per

2014-03-01

Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) are at high risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. We have previously shown that ambulatory pulse pressure (APP) predicts CV events in PAD patients. The biomarkers amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C are related to a worse outcome in patients with CV disease, but their predictive values have not been studied in relation to APP. Blood samples and 24-hour measurements of ambulatory blood pressure were examined in 98 men referred for PAD evaluation during 1998-2001. Patients were followed for a median of 71 months. The outcome variable was CV events defined as either CV mortality or any hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary revascularization. The predictive values of log(NT-proBNP), log(hs-CRP), and log(cystatin C) alone and together with APP were assessed by multivariable Cox regression. Area under the curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were calculated compared with a model containing other significant risk factors. During follow-up, 36 patients had at least 1 CV event. APP, log(NT-proBNP), and log(hs-CRP) all predicted CV events in univariable analysis, whereas log(cystatin C) did not. In multivariable analysis log(NT-proBNP) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-2.51) and log(hs-CRP) (HR = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.19-2.24) predicted events independently of 24-hour PP. The combination of log(NT-proBNP), log(hs-CRP), and average day PP improved risk discrimination (AUC = 0.833 vs. 0.736; P < 0.05) and NRI (37%; P < 0.01) when added to other significant risk factors. NT-proBNP and hs-CRP predict CV events independently of APP and the combination of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and day PP improves risk discrimination in PAD patients.

Assessment of Real-World Central Nervous System Events in Patients with Advanced Prostate Cancer Using Abiraterone Acetate, Bicalutamide, Enzalutamide, or Chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Pilon, Dominic; Behl, Ajay S.; Ellis, Lorie A.; Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle; Lefebvre, Patrick; Dawson, Nancy A.

2017-01-01

Background Central nervous system (CNS) events are frequently reported among patients with advanced prostate cancer as a consequence of the treatments used in this patient population. Objective To assess the incidence of CNS events in patients with advanced prostate cancer who initiated treatment with abiraterone acetate, bicalutamide, enzalutamide, or chemotherapy. Methods The Truven Health MarketScan Research databases were used to retrospectively identify patients with prostate cancer who initiated treatment with abiraterone acetate, enzalutamide, bicalutamide, or chemotherapy after September 1, 2012 (ie, the index date). The chemotherapy agents included cabazitaxel, docetaxel, mitoxantrone hydrochloride, and estramustine, and were used as monotherapy or as combination therapy. Patients were followed until December 31, 2014, the end of exposure to treatment, or until loss to follow-up. Kaplan-Meier rates and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the incidence of CNS events between the abiraterone acetate cohort and the other cohorts. A sensitivity analysis of patients with a diagnosis of metastasis was also conducted. Results A total of 1067 patients receiving abiraterone acetate, 5524 receiving bicalutamide, 592 receiving enzalutamide, and 256 receiving chemotherapy were identified. After 12 months, patients who received abiraterone acetate were less likely to have a CNS event than patients who received enzalutamide (39.5% vs 46.0%, respectively; P = .0036) or chemotherapy (39.5% vs 51.1%, respectively; P = .0277), and were more likely to have a CNS event than patients who received bicalutamide (39.5% vs 34.2%, respectively; P = .0397). After multivariate adjustment, at 12 months, patients who initiated abiraterone acetate treatment had 20% (P = .0388) reduction in the risk for a CNS event compared with patients who initiated enzalutamide; 8% (P = .3622) versus bicalutamide; and 27% (P = .0456) versus chemotherapy. The sensitivity analysis yielded similar results. Conclusion The results of this large observational study suggest that among patients with metastatic prostate cancer, treatment with abiraterone acetate is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of having a CNS event compared with treatment with enzalutamide or chemotherapy, but not with bicalutamide, even when controlling for metastatic disease. PMID:28626511

Stress sensitivity mediates the relationship between traumatic life events and attenuated positive psychotic symptoms differentially by gender in a college population sample.

PubMed

Gibson, Lauren E; Anglin, Deidre M; Klugman, Joshua T; Reeves, Lauren E; Fineberg, Anna M; Maxwell, Seth D; Kerns, Connor M; Ellman, Lauren M

2014-06-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether stress sensitivity mediates the relationship between traumatic life events and total attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, as well as the relationship between traumatic life events and endorsement of 8 or more attenuated positive psychotic symptoms as distressing (a threshold that has been associated with higher risk for psychosis in clinical groups). Participants (n = 671, aged 17-35, 29% male) were college students who were administered the Prodromal Questionnaire, the Perceived Stress Scale and the Life Events Checklist. Bootstrapping results indicated that stress sensitivity significantly mediated the relationships between traumatic life events and the number of attenuated positive psychotic symptoms endorsed and between traumatic life events and those who endorsed 8 or more distressing attenuated positive psychotic symptoms. Stratified gender analyses indicated the findings were specific to females. Results suggest that stress sensitivity may represent a specific vulnerability factor for risk of attenuated psychotic symptoms in those previously exposed to traumatic life events and that this liability appears stronger in females. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of parameters in moving average method for event detection enhancement using phase sensitive OTDR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Yong-Seok; Naeem, Khurram; Jeon, Min Yong; Kwon, Il-bum

2017-04-01

We analyze the relations of parameters in moving average method to enhance the event detectability of phase sensitive optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR). If the external events have unique frequency of vibration, then the control parameters of moving average method should be optimized in order to detect these events efficiently. A phase sensitive OTDR was implemented by a pulsed light source, which is composed of a laser diode, a semiconductor optical amplifier, an erbium-doped fiber amplifier, a fiber Bragg grating filter, and a light receiving part, which has a photo-detector and high speed data acquisition system. The moving average method is operated with the control parameters: total number of raw traces, M, number of averaged traces, N, and step size of moving, n. The raw traces are obtained by the phase sensitive OTDR with sound signals generated by a speaker. Using these trace data, the relation of the control parameters is analyzed. In the result, if the event signal has one frequency, then the optimal values of N, n are existed to detect the event efficiently.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

NEOS Data and the Origin of the 5 MeV Bump in the Reactor Antineutrino Spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, Patrick

2017-01-01

We perform a combined analysis of recent NEOS and Daya Bay data on the reactor antineutrino spectrum. This analysis includes approximately 1.5 million antineutrino events, which is the largest neutrino event sample analyzed to date. We use a double ratio which cancels flux model dependence and related uncertainties as well as the effects of the detector response model. We find at 3-4 standard deviation significance level, that plutonium-239 and plutonium-241 are disfavored as the single source for the so-called 5 MeV bump. This analysis method has general applicability and, in particular, with higher statistics data sets, will be able to shed significant light on the issue of the bump. With some caveats, this should also allow us to improve the sensitivity for sterile neutrino searches in NEOS.

The cost of nurse-sensitive adverse events.

PubMed

Pappas, Sharon Holcombe

2008-05-01

The aim of this study was to describe the methodology for nursing leaders to determine the cost of adverse events and effective levels of nurse staffing. The growing transparency of quality and cost outcomes motivates healthcare leaders to optimize the effectiveness of nurse staffing. Most hospitals have robust cost accounting systems that provide actual patient-level direct costs. These systems allow an analysis of the cost consumed by patients during a hospital stay. By knowing the cost of complications, leaders have the ability to justify the cost of improved staffing when quality evidence shows that higher nurse staffing improves quality. An analysis was performed on financial and clinical data from hospital databases of 3,200 inpatients. The purpose was to establish a methodology to determine actual cost per case. Three diagnosis-related groups were the focus of the analysis. Five adverse events were analyzed along with the costs. A regression analysis reported that the actual direct cost of an adverse event was dollars 1,029 per case in the congestive heart failure cases and dollars 903 in the surgical cases. There was a significant increase in the cost per case in medical patients with urinary tract infection and pressure ulcers and in surgical patients with urinary tract infection and pneumonia. The odds of pneumonia occurring in surgical patients decreased with additional registered nurse hours per patient day. Hospital cost accounting systems are useful in determining the cost of adverse events and can aid in decision making about nurse staffing. Adverse events add costs to patient care and should be measured at the unit level to adjust staffing to reduce adverse events and avoid costs.

Sensitivity analysis of an optimization-based trajectory planner for autonomous vehicles in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Jason; Campbell, Mark; Miller, Isaac; Schimpf, Brian

2008-10-01

The local path planner implemented on Cornell's 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge entry vehicle Skynet utilizes a novel mixture of discrete and continuous path planning steps to facilitate a safe, smooth, and human-like driving behavior. The planner first solves for a feasible path through the local obstacle map using a grid based search algorithm. The resulting path is then refined using a cost-based nonlinear optimization routine with both hard and soft constraints. The behavior of this optimization is influenced by tunable weighting parameters which govern the relative cost contributions assigned to different path characteristics. This paper studies the sensitivity of the vehicle's performance to these path planner weighting parameters using a data driven simulation based on logged data from the National Qualifying Event. The performance of the path planner in both the National Qualifying Event and in the Urban Challenge is also presented and analyzed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyack, B.E.; Steiner, J.L.; Harmony, S.C.

The PIUS Advanced Reactor is a 640-MW(e) pressurized-water reactor developed by Asea Brown Boveri. A unique feature of the PIUS concept is the absence of mechanical control and shutdown rods. Reactivity normally is controlled by the boron concentration in the coolant and the temperature of the moderator coolant. Analyses of five initiating events have been completed on the basis of calculations performed with the system neutronic and thermal-hydraulic analysis code TRAC-PF1/MOD2. The initiating events analyzed are (1) reactor scram, (2) loss of off-site power (3) main steam-line break, (4) small-break loss of coolant, and (5) large-break loss of coolant. Inmore » addition to the baseline calculation for each sequence, sensitivity studies were performed to explore the response of the PIUS reactor to severe off-normal conditions having a very low probability of occurrence. The sensitivity studies provide insights into the robustness of the design.« less

Surface-Wave Relocation of Remote Continental Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintner, J. A.; Ammon, C. J.; Cleveland, M.

2017-12-01

Accurate hypocenter locations are essential for seismic event analysis. Single-event location estimation methods provide relatively imprecise results in remote regions with few nearby seismic stations. Previous work has demonstrated that improved relative epicentroid precision in oceanic environments is obtainable using surface-wave cross correlation measurements. We use intermediate-period regional and teleseismic Rayleigh and Love waves to estimate relative epicentroid locations of moderately-sized seismic events in regions around Iran. Variations in faulting geometry, depth, and intermediate-period dispersion make surface-wave based event relocation challenging across this broad continental region. We compare and integrate surface-wave based relative locations with InSAR centroid location estimates. However, mapping an earthquake sequence mainshock to an InSAR fault deformation model centroid is not always a simple process, since the InSAR observations are sensitive to post-seismic deformation. We explore these ideas using earthquake sequences in western Iran. We also apply surface-wave relocation to smaller magnitude earthquakes (3.5 < M < 5.0). Inclusion of smaller-magnitude seismic events in a relocation effort requires a shift in bandwidth to shorter periods, which increases the sensitivity of relocations to surface-wave dispersion. Frequency-domain inter-event phase observations are used to understand the time-domain cross-correlation information, and to choose the appropriate band for applications using shorter periods. Over short inter-event distances, the changing group velocity does not strongly degrade the relative locations. For small-magnitude seismic events in continental regions, surface-wave relocation does not appear simple enough to allow broad routine application, but using this method to analyze individual earthquake sequences can provide valuable insight into earthquake and faulting processes.

Disgusted by Sexual Abuse: Exploring the Association Between Disgust Sensitivity and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Among Mothers of Sexually Abused Children.

PubMed

van Delft, Ivanka; Finkenauer, Catrin; Tybur, Joshua M; Lamers-Winkelman, Francien

2016-06-01

Nonoffending mothers of sexually abused children often exhibit high levels of posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms. Emerging evidence suggests that trait-like individual differences in sensitivity to disgust play a role in the development of PTS symptoms. One such individual difference, disgust sensitivity, has not been examined as far as we are aware among victims of secondary traumatic stress. The current study examined associations between disgust sensitivity and PTS symptoms among mothers of sexually abused children (N = 72). Mothers completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised and the Three Domain Disgust Scale (Tybur, Lieberman, & Griskevicius, 2009). More than one third of mothers scored above a suggested cutoff (mean score = 1.5) for high levels of PTS symptoms. Hierarchical linear regression analysis results indicated that sexual disgust sensitivity (β = .39, p = .002) was associated with PTS symptoms (R(2) = .18). An interaction analysis showed that sexual disgust sensitivity was associated with maternal PTS symptoms only when the perpetrator was not biologically related to the child (β = -.32, p = .047; R(2) = .28). Our findings suggested that sexual disgust sensitivity may be a risk factor for developing PTS symptoms among mothers of sexually abused children. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Sensitivity of an underwater Čerenkov km 3 telescope to TeV neutrinos from Galactic microquasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiello, S.; Ambriola, M.; Ameli, F.; Amore, I.; Anghinolfi, M.; Anzalone, A.; Barbarino, G.; Barbarito, E.; Battaglieri, M.; Bellotti, R.; Beverini, N.; Bonori, M.; Bouhadef, B.; Brescia, M.; Cacopardo, G.; Cafagna, F.; Capone, A.; Caponetto, L.; Castorina, E.; Ceres, A.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Cocimano, R.; Coniglione, R.; Cordelli, M.; Costa, M.; Cuneo, S.; D'Amico, A.; De Bonis, G.; De Marzo, C.; De Rosa, G.; De Vita, R.; Distefano, C.; Falchini, E.; Fiorello, C.; Flaminio, V.; Fratini, K.; Gabrielli, A.; Galeotti, S.; Gandolfi, E.; Giacomelli, G.; Giorgi, F.; Grimaldi, A.; Habel, R.; Leonora, E.; Lonardo, A.; Longo, G.; Lo Presti, D.; Lucarelli, F.; Maccioni, E.; Margiotta, A.; Martini, A.; Masullo, R.; Megna, R.; Migneco, E.; Mongelli, M.; Montaruli, T.; Morganti, M.; Musumeci, M.; Nicolau, C. A.; Orlando, A.; Osipenko, M.; Osteria, G.; Papaleo, R.; Pappalardo, V.; Petta, C.; Piattelli, P.; Raia, G.; Randazzo, N.; Reito, S.; Ricco, G.; Riccobene, G.; Ripani, M.; Rovelli, A.; Ruppi, M.; Russo, G. V.; Russo, S.; Sapienza, P.; Sedita, M.; Shirokov, E.; Simeone, F.; Sipala, V.; Spurio, M.; Taiuti, M.; Terreni, G.; Trasatti, L.; Urso, S.; Valente, V.; Vicini, P.

2007-09-01

In this paper are presented the results of Monte Carlo simulations on the capability of the proposed NEMO-km 3 telescope to detect TeV muon neutrinos from Galactic microquasars. For each known microquasar we compute the number of detectable events, together with the atmospheric neutrino and muon background events. We also discuss the detector sensitivity to neutrino fluxes expected from known microquasars, optimizing the event selection also to reject the background; the number of events surviving the event selection are given. The best candidates are the steady microquasars SS433 and GX339-4 for which we estimate a sensitivity of about 5 × 10 -11 erg/cm 2 s; the predicted fluxes are expected to be well above this sensitivity. For bursting microquasars the most interesting candidates are Cygnus X-3, GRO J1655-40 and XTE J1118+480: their analyses are more complicated because of the stochastic nature of the bursts.

Results from the MACHO Galactic Pixel Lensing Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drake, Andrew J.; Minniti, Dante; Alcock, Charles; Allsman, Robyn A.; Alves, David; Axelrod, Tim S.; Becker, Andrew C.; Bennett, David; Cook, Kem H.; Freeman, Ken C.; Griest, Kim; Lehner, Matt; Marshall, Stuart; Peterson, Bruce; Pratt, Mark; Quinn, Peter; Rodgers, Alex; Stubbs, Chris; Sutherland, Will; Tomaney, Austin; Vandehei, Thor; Welch, Doug L.

The MACHO, EROS, OGLE and AGAPE collaborations have been studying nature of the galactic halo for a number of years using microlensing events. The MACHO group undertakes observations of the LMC, SMC and Galactic Bulge monitoring the light curves of millions of stars to detect microlensing. Most of these fields are crowded to the extent that all the monitored stars are blended. Such crowding makes the performance of accurate photometry difficult. We apply the new technique of Difference Image Analysis (DIA) on archival data to improve the photometry and increase both the detection sensitivity and effective search area. The application of this technique also allows us to detect so called `pixel lensing' events. These are microlensing events where the source star is only detectable during lensing. The detection of these events will allow us to make a large increase in the number of detected microlensing events. We present a light curve demonstrating the detection of a pixel lensing event with this technique.

Factors Associated with Complications in Older Adults with Isolated Blunt Chest Trauma

PubMed Central

Lotfipour, Shahram; Kaku, Shawn K.; Vaca, Federico E.; Patel, Chirag; Anderson, Craig L.; Ahmed, Suleman S.; Menchine, Michael D.

2009-01-01

Objective: To determine the prevalence of adverse events in elderly trauma patients with isolated blunt thoracic trauma, and to identify variables associated with these adverse events. Methods: We performed a chart review of 160 trauma patients age 65 and older with significant blunt thoracic trauma, drawn from an American College of Surgeons Level I Trauma Center registry. Patients with serious injury to other body areas were excluded to prevent confounding the cause of adverse events. Adverse events were defined as acute respiratory distress syndrome or pneumonia, unanticipated intubation, transfer to the intensive care unit for hypoxemia, or death. Data collected included history, physical examination, radiographic findings, length of hospital stay, and clinical outcomes. Results: Ninety-nine patients had isolated chest injury, while 61 others had other organ systems injured and were excluded. Sixteen patients developed adverse events [16.2% 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5–24.9%], including two deaths. Adverse events were experienced by 19.2%, 6.1%, and 28.6% of those patients 65–74, 75–84, and ≥85 years old, respectively. The mean length of stay was 14.6 days in patients with an adverse event and 5.8 days in patients without. Post hoc analysis revealed that all 16 patients with an adverse event had one or more of the following: age ≥85, initial systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, hemothorax, pneumothorax, three or more unilateral rib fractures, or pulmonary contusion (sensitivity 100%, CI 79.4–100%; specificity 38.6%, CI 28.1–49.9%). Conclusion: Adverse events from isolated thoracic trauma in elderly patients complicate 16% of our sample. These criteria were 100% sensitive and 38.5% specific for these adverse events. This study is a first step to identifying variables that might aid in identifying patients at high risk for serious adverse events. PMID:19561823

Coincidence and coherent data analysis methods for gravitational wave bursts in a network of interferometric detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Nicolas; Barsuglia, Matteo; Bizouard, Marie-Anne; Brisson, Violette; Cavalier, Fabien; Davier, Michel; Hello, Patrice; Kreckelbergh, Stephane; Porter, Edward K.

2003-11-01

Network data analysis methods are the only way to properly separate real gravitational wave (GW) transient events from detector noise. They can be divided into two generic classes: the coincidence method and the coherent analysis. The former uses lists of selected events provided by each interferometer belonging to the network and tries to correlate them in time to identify a physical signal. Instead of this binary treatment of detector outputs (signal present or absent), the latter method involves first the merging of the interferometer data and looks for a common pattern, consistent with an assumed GW waveform and a given source location in the sky. The thresholds are only applied later, to validate or not the hypothesis made. As coherent algorithms use more complete information than coincidence methods, they are expected to provide better detection performances, but at a higher computational cost. An efficient filter must yield a good compromise between a low false alarm rate (hence triggering on data at a manageable rate) and a high detection efficiency. Therefore, the comparison of the two approaches is achieved using so-called receiving operating characteristics (ROC), giving the relationship between the false alarm rate and the detection efficiency for a given method. This paper investigates this question via Monte Carlo simulations, using the network model developed in a previous article. Its main conclusions are the following. First, a three-interferometer network such as Virgo-LIGO is found to be too small to reach good detection efficiencies at low false alarm rates: larger configurations are suitable to reach a confidence level high enough to validate as true GW a detected event. In addition, an efficient network must contain interferometers with comparable sensitivities: studying the three-interferometer LIGO network shows that the 2-km interferometer with half sensitivity leads to a strong reduction of performances as compared to a network of three interferometers with full sensitivity. Finally, it is shown that coherent analyses are feasible for burst searches and are clearly more efficient than coincidence strategies. Therefore, developing such methods should be an important goal of a worldwide collaborative data analysis.

Detection of explosive cough events in audio recordings by internal sound analysis.

PubMed

Rocha, B M; Mendes, L; Couceiro, R; Henriques, J; Carvalho, P; Paiva, R P

2017-07-01

We present a new method for the discrimination of explosive cough events, which is based on a combination of spectral content descriptors and pitch-related features. After the removal of near-silent segments, a vector of event boundaries is obtained and a proposed set of 9 features is extracted for each event. Two data sets, recorded using electronic stethoscopes and comprising a total of 46 healthy subjects and 13 patients, were employed to evaluate the method. The proposed feature set is compared to three other sets of descriptors: a baseline, a combination of both sets, and an automatic selection of the best 10 features from both sets. The combined feature set yields good results on the cross-validated database, attaining a sensitivity of 92.3±2.3% and a specificity of 84.7±3.3%. Besides, this feature set seems to generalize well when it is trained on a small data set of patients, with a variety of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and tested on a bigger data set of mostly healthy subjects: a sensitivity of 93.4% and a specificity of 83.4% are achieved in those conditions. These results demonstrate that complementing the proposed feature set with a baseline set is a promising approach.

Defect-sensitivity analysis of an SEU immune CMOS logic family

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingermann, Erik H.; Frenzel, James F.

1992-01-01

Fault testing of resistive manufacturing defects is done on a recently developed single event upset immune logic family. Resistive ranges and delay times are compared with those of traditional CMOS logic. Reaction of the logic to these defects is observed for a NOR gate, and an evaluation of its ability to cope with them is determined.

Research Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

cognitive function. For example. physiological methods allow for visual sensitivity measurements in infants and children with about the same level of...potential (ERP), the event-related magnetic field (ERF), and pupillometry . Where possible, we cite specific experiments that deal with display or stimulus...technical barrier preventing the application of these methods to the analysis of human performance with color displays. Pupillometry . The pupillary

Quantifying the importance of spatial resolution and other factors through global sensitivity analysis of a flood inundation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas Steven Savage, James; Pianosi, Francesca; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-11-01

Where high-resolution topographic data are available, modelers are faced with the decision of whether it is better to spend computational resource on resolving topography at finer resolutions or on running more simulations to account for various uncertain input factors (e.g., model parameters). In this paper we apply global sensitivity analysis to explore how influential the choice of spatial resolution is when compared to uncertainties in the Manning's friction coefficient parameters, the inflow hydrograph, and those stemming from the coarsening of topographic data used to produce Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). We apply the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP to produce several temporally and spatially variable model outputs that represent different aspects of flood inundation processes, including flood extent, water depth, and time of inundation. We find that the most influential input factor for flood extent predictions changes during the flood event, starting with the inflow hydrograph during the rising limb before switching to the channel friction parameter during peak flood inundation, and finally to the floodplain friction parameter during the drying phase of the flood event. Spatial resolution and uncertainty introduced by resampling topographic data to coarser resolutions are much more important for water depth predictions, which are also sensitive to different input factors spatially and temporally. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of LISFLOOD-FP predictions is more complex than previously thought. Consequently, the input factors that modelers should prioritize will differ depending on the model output assessed, and the location and time of when and where this output is most relevant.

Comparison of Body Weight Trend Algorithms for Prediction of Heart Failure Related Events in Home Care Setting.

PubMed

Eggerth, Alphons; Modre-Osprian, Robert; Hayn, Dieter; Kastner, Peter; Pölzl, Gerhard; Schreier, Günter

2017-01-01

Automatic event detection is used in telemedicine based heart failure disease management programs supporting physicians and nurses in monitoring of patients' health data. Analysis of the performance of automatic event detection algorithms for prediction of HF related hospitalisations or diuretic dose increases. Rule-Of-Thumb and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) algorithm were applied to body weight data from 106 heart failure patients of the HerzMobil-Tirol disease management program. The evaluation criteria were based on Youden index and ROC curves. Analysis of data from 1460 monitoring weeks with 54 events showed a maximum Youden index of 0.19 for MACD and RoT with a specificity > 0.90. Comparison of the two algorithms for real-world monitoring data showed similar results regarding total and limited AUC. An improvement of the sensitivity might be possible by including additional health data (e.g. vital signs and self-reported well-being) because body weight variations obviously are not the only cause of HF related hospitalisations or diuretic dose increases.

Clinical evaluation of a novel population-based regression analysis for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression.

PubMed

Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C

2011-04-01

The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF clusters. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stilwell, D. E.; Davis, W. D.; Joyce, R. M.; Mcdonald, F. B.; Trainor, J. H.; Althouse, W. E.; Cummings, A. C.; Garrard, T. L.; Stone, E. C.; Vogt, R. E.

1979-01-01

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment includes seven dE/dx-E telescopes to measure the energy and charge of particles with atomic numbers from 1 to 26 in the energy range 1-500 MeV/nucleon and to measure electron energy in the range from 3 to 110 MeV. Isotopic composition of hydrogen through sulfur in the range up to 75 Mev/nucleon can also be resolved. The electronic systems include a dual-gain, charge sensitive preamplifier, 4096-channel pulse height analyzers for three parameter analysis of selected events, and an event type readout polling scheme to maximize the use of available telemetry space and to enhance the occurrence of rare events in the data. Details of the detector, electronic and mechanical design are presented.

Reach-scale channel sensitivity to multiple human activities and natural events: Lower Santa Clara River, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, Peter W.; Dusterhoff, Scott R.; Sears, William A.

2013-05-01

Understanding the cumulative impact of natural and human influences on the sensitivity of channel morphodynamics, a relative measure between the drivers for change and the magnitude of channel response, requires an approach that accommodates spatial and temporal variability in the suite of primary stressors. Multiple historical data sources were assembled to provide a reach-scale analysis of the lower Santa Clara River (LSCR) in Ventura County, California, USA. Sediment supply is naturally high due to tectonic activity, earthquake-generated landslides, wildfires, and high magnitude flow events during El Niño years. Somewhat typically for the region, the catchment has been subject to four reasonably distinct land use and resource management combinations since European-American settlement. When combined with analysis of channel morphological response (quantifiable since ca. 1930), reach-scale and temporal differences in channel sensitivity become apparent. Downstream reaches have incised on average 2.4 m and become narrower by almost 50% with changes focused in a period of highly sensitive response after about 1950 followed by forced insensitivity caused by structural flood embankments and a significant grade control structure. In contrast, the middle reaches have been responsive but are morphologically resilient, and the upstream reaches show a mildly sensitive aggradational trend. Superimposing the natural and human drivers for change reveals that large scale stressors (related to ranching and irrigation) have been replaced over time by a suite of stressors operating at multiple spatial scales. Lower reaches have been sensitive primarily to 'local' scale impacts (urban growth, flood control, and aggregate mining) whereas, upstream, catchment-scale influences still prevail (including flow regulation and climate-driven sediment supply factors). These factors illustrate the complexity inherent to cumulative impact assessment in fluvial systems, provide evidence for a distinct Anthropocene fluvial response, and underpin the enormity of the challenge faced in trying to sustainably manage and restore rivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.

This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Termmore » Seismic Program.« less

Single photon detection and signal analysis for high sensitivity dosimetry based on optically stimulated luminescence with beryllium oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radtke, J.; Sponner, J.; Jakobi, C.; Schneider, J.; Sommer, M.; Teichmann, T.; Ullrich, W.; Henniger, J.; Kormoll, T.

2018-01-01

Single photon detection applied to optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dosimetry is a promising approach due to the low level of luminescence light and the known statistical behavior of single photon events. Time resolved detection allows to apply a variety of different and independent data analysis methods. Furthermore, using amplitude modulated stimulation impresses time- and frequency information into the OSL light and therefore allows for additional means of analysis. Considering the impressed frequency information, data analysis by using Fourier transform algorithms or other digital filters can be used for separating the OSL signal from unwanted light or events generated by other phenomena. This potentially lowers the detection limits of low dose measurements and might improve the reproducibility and stability of obtained data. In this work, an OSL system based on a single photon detector, a fast and accurate stimulation unit and an FPGA is presented. Different analysis algorithms which are applied to the single photon data are discussed.

C-reactive protein predicts further ischemic events in first-ever transient ischemic attack or stroke patients with intracranial large-artery occlusive disease.

PubMed

Arenillas, Juan F; Alvarez-Sabín, José; Molina, Carlos A; Chacón, Pilar; Montaner, Joan; Rovira, Alex; Ibarra, Bernardo; Quintana, Manuel

2003-10-01

The role of inflammation in intracranial large-artery occlusive disease is unclear. We sought to investigate the relationship between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and the risk of further ischemic events in first-ever transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke patients with intracranial large-artery occlusive disease. Of a total of 127 consecutive first-ever TIA or ischemic stroke patients with intracranial stenoses detected by transcranial Doppler ultrasonography, 71 fulfilled all inclusion criteria, which included angiographic confirmation. Serum high-sensitivity CRP level was determined a minimum of 3 months after the qualifying event. Patients were followed up during 1 year after blood sampling. Thirteen patients (18.3%) with intracranial large-artery occlusive disease experienced an end point event: 9 cerebral ischemic events, 7 of which were attributable to intracranial large-artery occlusive disease, and 4 myocardial infarctions. Patients in the highest quintile of high-sensitivity CRP level had a significantly higher adjusted odds ratio for new events compared with those in the first quintile (odds ratio, 8.66; 95% CI, 1.39 to 53.84; P=0.01). A high-sensitivity CRP level above the receiver operating characteristic curve cutoff value of 1.41 mg/dL emerged as an independent predictor of new end point events (hazard ratio, 7.14; 95% CI, 1.77 to 28.73; P=0.005) and of further intracranial large-artery occlusive disease-related ischemic events (hazard ratio, 30.67; 95% CI, 3.6 to 255.5; P=0.0015), after adjustment for age, sex, and risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that a significantly lower proportion of patients with a high-sensitivity CRP >1.41 mg/dL remained free of a new ischemic event (P<0.0001). High-sensitivity CRP serum level predicts further intracranial large-artery occlusive disease-related and any major ischemic events in patients with first-ever TIA or stroke with intracranial large-artery occlusive disease. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that inflammation may be involved in the progression and complication of intracranial large-artery occlusive disease.

State-of-the-Art Fusion-Finder Algorithms Sensitivity and Specificity

PubMed Central

Carrara, Matteo; Beccuti, Marco; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Cavallo, Federica; Cordero, Francesca; Donatelli, Susanna; Calogero, Raffaele A.

2013-01-01

Background. Gene fusions arising from chromosomal translocations have been implicated in cancer. RNA-seq has the potential to discover such rearrangements generating functional proteins (chimera/fusion). Recently, many methods for chimeras detection have been published. However, specificity and sensitivity of those tools were not extensively investigated in a comparative way. Results. We tested eight fusion-detection tools (FusionHunter, FusionMap, FusionFinder, MapSplice, deFuse, Bellerophontes, ChimeraScan, and TopHat-fusion) to detect fusion events using synthetic and real datasets encompassing chimeras. The comparison analysis run only on synthetic data could generate misleading results since we found no counterpart on real dataset. Furthermore, most tools report a very high number of false positive chimeras. In particular, the most sensitive tool, ChimeraScan, reports a large number of false positives that we were able to significantly reduce by devising and applying two filters to remove fusions not supported by fusion junction-spanning reads or encompassing large intronic regions. Conclusions. The discordant results obtained using synthetic and real datasets suggest that synthetic datasets encompassing fusion events may not fully catch the complexity of RNA-seq experiment. Moreover, fusion detection tools are still limited in sensitivity or specificity; thus, there is space for further improvement in the fusion-finder algorithms. PMID:23555082

Measurement of Non-Stationary Characteristics of a Landfall Typhoon at the Jiangyin Bridge Site.

PubMed

He, Xuhui; Qin, Hongxi; Tao, Tianyou; Liu, Wenshuo; Wang, Hao

2017-09-22

The wind-sensitive long-span suspension bridge is a vital element in land transportation. Understanding the wind characteristics at the bridge site is thus of great significance to the wind- resistant analysis of such a flexible structure. In this study, a strong wind event from a landfall typhoon called Soudelor recorded at the Jiangyin Bridge site with the anemometer is taken as the research object. As inherent time-varying trends are frequently captured in typhoon events, the wind characteristics of Soudelor are analyzed in a non-stationary perspective. The time-varying mean is first extracted with the wavelet-based self-adaptive method. Then, the non-stationary turbulent wind characteristics, e.g.; turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density, are investigated and compared with the results from the stationary analysis. The comparison highlights the importance of non-stationary considerations of typhoon events, and a transition from stationarity to non-stationarity for the analysis of wind effects. The analytical results could help enrich the database of non-stationary wind characteristics, and are expected to provide references for the wind-resistant analysis of engineering structures in similar areas.

Measurement of Non-Stationary Characteristics of a Landfall Typhoon at the Jiangyin Bridge Site

PubMed Central

Qin, Hongxi; Tao, Tianyou; Liu, Wenshuo

2017-01-01

The wind-sensitive long-span suspension bridge is a vital element in land transportation. Understanding the wind characteristics at the bridge site is thus of great significance to the wind- resistant analysis of such a flexible structure. In this study, a strong wind event from a landfall typhoon called Soudelor recorded at the Jiangyin Bridge site with the anemometer is taken as the research object. As inherent time-varying trends are frequently captured in typhoon events, the wind characteristics of Soudelor are analyzed in a non-stationary perspective. The time-varying mean is first extracted with the wavelet-based self-adaptive method. Then, the non-stationary turbulent wind characteristics, e.g.; turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density, are investigated and compared with the results from the stationary analysis. The comparison highlights the importance of non-stationary considerations of typhoon events, and a transition from stationarity to non-stationarity for the analysis of wind effects. The analytical results could help enrich the database of non-stationary wind characteristics, and are expected to provide references for the wind-resistant analysis of engineering structures in similar areas. PMID:28937641

An Improved Forwarding of Diverse Events with Mobile Sinks in Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Raza, Waseem; Arshad, Farzana; Ahmed, Imran; Abdul, Wadood; Ghouzali, Sanaa; Niaz, Iftikhar Azim; Javaid, Nadeem

2016-11-04

In this paper, a novel routing strategy to cater the energy consumption and delay sensitivity issues in deep underwater wireless sensor networks is proposed. This strategy is named as ESDR: Event Segregation based Delay sensitive Routing. In this strategy sensed events are segregated on the basis of their criticality and, are forwarded to their respective destinations based on forwarding functions. These functions depend on different routing metrics like: Signal Quality Index, Localization free Signal to Noise Ratio, Energy Cost Function and Depth Dependent Function. The problem of incomparable values of previously defined forwarding functions causes uneven delays in forwarding process. Hence forwarding functions are redefined to ensure their comparable values in different depth regions. Packet forwarding strategy is based on the event segregation approach which forwards one third of the generated events (delay sensitive) to surface sinks and two third events (normal events) are forwarded to mobile sinks. Motion of mobile sinks is influenced by the relative distribution of normal nodes. We have also incorporated two different mobility patterns named as; adaptive mobility and uniform mobility for mobile sinks. The later one is implemented for collecting the packets generated by the normal nodes. These improvements ensure optimum holding time, uniform delay and in-time reporting of delay sensitive events. This scheme is compared with the existing ones and outperforms the existing schemes in terms of network lifetime, delay and throughput.

Surface Alpha Interactions in P-Type Point-Contact HPGe Detectors: Maximizing Sensitivity of 76Ge Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszko, Julieta

Though the existence of neutrino oscillations proves that neutrinos must have non-zero mass, Beyond-the-Standard-Model physics is needed to explain the origins of that mass. One intriguing possibility is that neutrinos are Majorana particles, i.e., they are their own anti-particles. Such a mechanism could naturally explain the observed smallness of the neutrino masses, and would have consequences that go far beyond neutrino physics, with implications for Grand Unification and leptogenesis. If neutrinos are Majorana particles, they could undergo neutrinoless double-beta decay (0nBB), a hypothesized rare decay in which two antineutrinos annihilate one another. This process, if it exists, would be exceedingly rare, with a half-life over 1E25 years. Therefore, searching for it requires experiments with extremely low background rates. One promising technique in the search for 0nBB is the use of P-type point-contact (P-PC) high-purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors enriched in 76Ge, operated in large low-background arrays. This approach is used, with some key differences, by the MAJORANA and GERDA Collaborations. A problematic background in such large granular detector arrays is posed by alpha particles incident on the surfaces of the detectors, often caused by 222Rn contamination of parts or of the detectors themselves. In the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR, events have been observed that are consistent with energy-degraded alphas originating near the passivated surface of the detectors, leading to a potential background contribution in the region-of-interest for neutrinoless double-beta decay. However, it is also observed that when energy deposition occurs very close to the passivated surface, high charge trapping occurs along with subsequent slow charge re-release. This leads to both a reduced prompt signal and a measurable change in slope of the tail of a recorded pulse. Here we discuss the characteristics of these events and the development of a filter that can identify the occurrence of this delayed charge recovery (DCR) effect, allowing for the efficient rejection of passivated surface alpha events in analysis. Using a dedicated test-stand called the TUM Upside-down BEGe (TUBE) scanner, we have characterized the response of a P-PC detector like those used in the DEMONSTRATOR to alphas incident on the sensitive surfaces, developing a model for the radial dependence of the energy loss to charge trapping and determining the dominant mechanism behind the delayed charge effect. We have also used these measurements to demonstrate the complementarity of the DCR analysis with the drift-time analysis that is used to identify alpha background candidate events in the GERDA detectors. Using these two methods, we demonstrate the ability to effectively reject all alpha events (to within statistical uncertainty) with only 0.2% bulk event sacrifice. Applying the DCR analysis to the events observed in the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR, we find that it reduces the backgrounds in the 0nBB region-of-interest by a factor of 29, increasing the expected experimental sensitivity by a factor of 3 over the lifetime of the DEMONSTRATOR. The results of the dedicated measurements in the TUBE scanner can be used to build a background model for alpha decays in the DEMONSTRATOR; here, we examine two simplified geometric models for the alpha source distribution and find that the observed spectral shape is consistent with alpha events originating in the plastics of the detector units.

Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arampatzis, Georgios, E-mail: garab@math.uoc.gr; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu

2014-03-28

In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-“coupled”- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that themore » new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary MATLAB source code.« less

Toronto area ozone: Long-term measurements and modeled sources of poor air quality events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whaley, C. H.; Strong, K.; Jones, D. B. A.; Walker, T. W.; Jiang, Z.; Henze, D. K.; Cooke, M. A.; McLinden, C. A.; Mittermeier, R. L.; Pommier, M.; Fogal, P. F.

2015-11-01

The University of Toronto Atmospheric Observatory and Environment Canada's Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments each has over a decade of ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy measurements in southern Ontario. We present the Toronto area FTIR time series from 2002 to 2013 of two tropospheric trace gases—ozone and carbon monoxide—along with surface in situ measurements taken by government monitoring programs. We interpret their variability with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and determine the atmospheric conditions that cause pollution events in the time series. Our analysis includes a regionally tagged O3 model of the 2004-2007 time period, which quantifies the geographical contributions to Toronto area O3. The important emission types for 15 pollution events are then determined with a high-resolution adjoint model. Toronto O3, during pollution events, is most sensitive to southern Ontario and U.S. fossil fuel NOx emissions and natural isoprene emissions. The sources of Toronto pollution events are found to be highly variable, and this is demonstrated in four case studies representing local, short-, middle-, and long-range transport scenarios. This suggests that continental-scale emission reductions could improve air quality in the Toronto region. We also find that abnormally high temperatures and high-pressure systems are common to all pollution events studied, suggesting that climate change may impact Toronto O3. Finally, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of the surface and column measurements to anthropogenic NOx emissions and show that they are remarkably similar. This work thus demonstrates the usefulness of FTIR measurements in an urban area to assess air quality.

Development and validation of the Questionnaire of Stressful Life Events (QSLE).

PubMed

Butjosa, Anna; Gómez-Benito, Juana; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Barajas, Ana; Baños, Iris; Usall, Judith; Grau, Norma; Granell, Luis; Sola, Andrea; Carlson, Janina; Dolz, Montserrat; Sánchez, Bernardo; Haro, Josep Maria; Ochoa, Susana

2017-12-01

Stressful life events (SLEs) are important indicators prior to the onset of first-episode psychosis (FEP). Although there are well-validated interviews and self-reports for assessing SLE on proximate events, unfortunately there are no instruments to assess SLE covering an entire lifetime. This study includes detailed specific items of childhood, adolescence, and adulthood focused on the presence of SLE, emotional impact (stressfulness), and the age at which the event occurred. Our research describes 2 studies designed to develop and validate a new scale to assess SLE: the Questionnaire of Stressful Life Events (QSLE). In Study 1, an over-inclusive item pool was generated based on review of group of experts at Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu and content validity was examined by an Expert Survey. The whole scale represents the content domain. In Study 2, item-level analyses revealed good distributional properties, intra-rater reliability, and convergent and discriminant validity. In the sensitivity and specificity analysis, 18 items had high relevance in the discriminability between patients with FEP and healthy controls. We note that there was an AUC of 0.676, indicating a good predictor. Using 7 as a cutoff to predict an individual as a patient would yield a sensitivity of 64.8% and a specificity of 65%. Overall, the QSLE displayed satisfactory psychometric characteristics in a Spanish population. These results suggest that QSLE gives us the opportunity to investigate childhood, adolescent, and adult life events by measuring the stress and age at the moment on a continuous scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance bounds on parallel self-initiating discrete-event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1990-01-01

The use is considered of massively parallel architectures to execute discrete-event simulations of what is termed self-initiating models. A logical process in a self-initiating model schedules its own state re-evaluation times, independently of any other logical process, and sends its new state to other logical processes following the re-evaluation. The interest is in the effects of that communication on synchronization. The performance is considered of various synchronization protocols by deriving upper and lower bounds on optimal performance, upper bounds on Time Warp's performance, and lower bounds on the performance of a new conservative protocol. The analysis of Time Warp includes the overhead costs of state-saving and rollback. The analysis points out sufficient conditions for the conservative protocol to outperform Time Warp. The analysis also quantifies the sensitivity of performance to message fan-out, lookahead ability, and the probability distributions underlying the simulation.

Tsunami and shelf resonance on the northern Chile coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortés, Pablo; Catalán, Patricio A.; Aránguiz, Rafael; Bellotti, Giorgio

2017-09-01

This work presents the analysis of long waves resonance in two of the main cities along the northern coast of Chile, Arica, and Iquique, where a large tsunamigenic potential remains despite recent earthquakes. By combining a modal analysis solving the equation of free surface oscillations, with the analysis of background spectra derived from in situ measurements, the spatial and temporal structures of the modes are recovered. Comparison with spectra from three tsunamis of different characteristics shows that the modes found have been excited by past events. Moreover, the two locations show different response patterns. Arica is more sensitive to the characteristics of the tsunami source, whereas Iquique shows a smaller dependency and similar response for different tsunami events. Results are further compared with other methodologies with good agreement. These findings are relevant in characterizing the tsunami hazard in the area, and the methodology can be further extended to other regions along the Chilean coast.

Analysis of multiple cell upset sensitivity in bulk CMOS SRAM after neutron irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Xiaoyu; Guo, Hongxia; Luo, Yinhong; Zhang, Fengqi; Ding, Lili

2018-03-01

In our previous studies, we have proved that neutron irradiation can decrease the single event latch-up (SEL) sensitivity of CMOS SRAM. And one of the key contributions to the multiple cell upset (MCU) is the parasitic bipolar amplification, it bring us to study the impact of neutron irradiation on the SRAM’s MCU sensitivity. After the neutron experiment, we test the devices’ function and electrical parameters. Then, we use the heavy ion fluence to examine the changes on the devices’ MCU sensitivity pre- and post-neutron-irradiation. Unfortunately, neutron irradiation makes the MCU phenomenon worse. Finally, we use the electric static discharge (ESD) testing technology to deduce the experimental results and find that the changes on the WPM region take the lead rather than the changes on the parasitic bipolar amplification for the 90 nm process.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

An Examination of Environment Perturbation Effects on Single Event Upset Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Michele M.; Leidecker, Henning W.; Lewis, Mark J.

1997-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of the sensitivity of single event upset (SEU) rate predictions to changes in the direct ionization-inducing environment. An examination based on the nature of the SEU rate equation is presented for the case in which the perturbation is constant across varying particle linear energy transfer (LET). It is shown that the relative variation in SEU rate is equal to the relative perturbation in flux. Results are also presented for the case in which the environment perturbations exist in small LET bins. Through this analysis it is shown that the relative variation in expected SEU rate is equal to that in flux only for the LET regime in which the product of the cross section and differential flux is maximum.

Predictors of post-event rumination related to social anxiety.

PubMed

Kocovski, Nancy L; Rector, Neil A

2007-01-01

Post-event processing is the cognitive rumination that follows social events in cognitive models of social anxiety. The aim of this study was to examine factors that may predict the extent to which individuals engage in post-event processing. Anxious rumination, social anxiety, anxiety sensitivity and post-event processing related to a recent anxiety-provoking social event were assessed in a college student sample (n = 439). Social anxiety and anxious rumination, but not anxiety sensitivity, significantly predicted the extent to which the participants engaged in post-event processing related to an anxiety-provoking social event. Factors that appear to impact on the post-event period include the nature of the social situation and the ethnicity of the participant. It appears that both general rumination over anxious symptoms, and specific rumination related to social events are relevant for cognitive models of social anxiety.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time‐to‐Event Analysis

PubMed Central

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng

2018-01-01

Abstract Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time‐to‐event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high‐dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML‐based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high‐dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML‐based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML‐based methods provide a powerful tool for time‐to‐event analysis, with a built‐in capacity for high‐dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. PMID:29536640

Analysis of the Noise in Data from the Mt. Meron Array

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chambers, D. H.; Breitfeller, E.

2010-07-15

This memo describes an analysis of the noise in data obtained from the Mt. Meron seismic array in northern Israel. The overall objective is to development a method for removing noise from extraneous sources in the environment, increasing the sensitivity to seismic signals from far events. For this initial work, we concentrated on understanding the propagation characteristics of the noise in the frequency band from 0.1 – 8 Hz, and testing a model-based method for removing narrow band (single frequency) noise.

Synaptogenesis in the rat cerebellum: effects of early hypo- and hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Nicholson, J L; Altman, J

1972-05-05

The number of synapses in the molecular layer of the rat cerebellum is reduced by early hypo-and hyperthyroidism within 30 days. Hypothyroidism retards synaptogenesis after 10 days, while hyperthyroidism accelerates synaptogenesis initially, but by 21 days the number of synapses is reduced. The sensitivity of developing synapses to thyroid hormone may permit analysis of the events triggering synaptogenesis.

Alternative Active Duty Military Retirement Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-24

savings. v AFIT/GCA/ENS/11-02 This work is dedicated to all the hardworking men and women in...discovering innovative ways to save money without decreasing the quality of life for their customers. The federal government is no different, and is...living adjustment, and life expectancy. The results could be distorted in the wake of a significant economic event. Sensitivity analysis was

Estimation of splitting functions from Earth's normal mode spectra using the neighbourhood algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachhai, Surya; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Masters, Guy

2016-01-01

The inverse problem for Earth structure from normal mode data is strongly non-linear and can be inherently non-unique. Traditionally, the inversion is linearized by taking partial derivatives of the complex spectra with respect to the model parameters (i.e. structure coefficients), and solved in an iterative fashion. This method requires that the earthquake source model is known. However, the release of energy in large earthquakes used for the analysis of Earth's normal modes is not simple. A point source approximation is often inadequate, and a more complete account of energy release at the source is required. In addition, many earthquakes are required for the solution to be insensitive to the initial constraints and regularization. In contrast to an iterative approach, the autoregressive linear inversion technique conveniently avoids the need for earthquake source parameters, but it also requires a number of events to achieve full convergence when a single event does not excite all singlets well. To build on previous improvements, we develop a technique to estimate structure coefficients (and consequently, the splitting functions) using a derivative-free parameter search, known as neighbourhood algorithm (NA). We implement an efficient forward method derived using the autoregresssion of receiver strips, and this allows us to search over a multiplicity of structure coefficients in a relatively short time. After demonstrating feasibility of the use of NA in synthetic cases, we apply it to observations of the inner core sensitive mode 13S2. The splitting function of this mode is dominated by spherical harmonic degree 2 axisymmetric structure and is consistent with the results obtained from the autoregressive linear inversion. The sensitivity analysis of multiple events confirms the importance of the Bolivia, 1994 earthquake. When this event is used in the analysis, as little as two events are sufficient to constrain the splitting functions of 13S2 mode. Apart from not requiring the knowledge of earthquake source, the newly developed technique provides an approximate uncertainty measure of the structure coefficients and allows us to control the type of structure solved for, for example to establish if elastic structure is sufficient.

Investigating the Sensitivity of Model Intraseasonal Variability to Minimum Entrainment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, W. M.; Maloney, E. D.

2008-12-01

Previous studies have shown that using a Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convective parameterization with appropriate convective triggers and assumptions about rain re-evaporation produces realistic intraseasonal variability. RAS represents convection with an ensemble of clouds detraining at different heights, each with different entrainment rate, the highest clouds having the lowest entrainment rates. If tropospheric temperature gradients are weak and boundary layer moist static energy is relatively constant, then by limiting the minimum entrainment rate deep convection is suppressed in the presence of dry tropospheric air. This allows moist static energy to accumulate and be discharged during strong intraseasonal convective events, which is consistent with the discharge/recharge paradigm. This study will examine the sensitivity of intra-seasonal variability to changes in minimum entrainment rate in the NCAR-CAM3 with the RAS scheme. Simulations using several minimum entrainment rate thresholds will be investigated. A frequency-wavenumber analysis will show the improvement of the MJO signal as minimum entrainment rate is increased. The spatial and vertical structure of MJO-like disturbances will be examined, including an analysis of the time evolution of vertical humidity distribution for each simulation. Simulated results will be compared to observed MJO events in NCEP-1 reanalysis and CMAP precipitation.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

Detecting paralinguistic events in audio stream using context in features and probabilistic decisions☆

PubMed Central

Gupta, Rahul; Audhkhasi, Kartik; Lee, Sungbok; Narayanan, Shrikanth

2017-01-01

Non-verbal communication involves encoding, transmission and decoding of non-lexical cues and is realized using vocal (e.g. prosody) or visual (e.g. gaze, body language) channels during conversation. These cues perform the function of maintaining conversational flow, expressing emotions, and marking personality and interpersonal attitude. In particular, non-verbal cues in speech such as paralanguage and non-verbal vocal events (e.g. laughters, sighs, cries) are used to nuance meaning and convey emotions, mood and attitude. For instance, laughters are associated with affective expressions while fillers (e.g. um, ah, um) are used to hold floor during a conversation. In this paper we present an automatic non-verbal vocal events detection system focusing on the detect of laughter and fillers. We extend our system presented during Interspeech 2013 Social Signals Sub-challenge (that was the winning entry in the challenge) for frame-wise event detection and test several schemes for incorporating local context during detection. Specifically, we incorporate context at two separate levels in our system: (i) the raw frame-wise features and, (ii) the output decisions. Furthermore, our system processes the output probabilities based on a few heuristic rules in order to reduce erroneous frame-based predictions. Our overall system achieves an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve of 95.3% for detecting laughters and 90.4% for fillers on the test set drawn from the data specifications of the Interspeech 2013 Social Signals Sub-challenge. We perform further analysis to understand the interrelation between the features and obtained results. Specifically, we conduct a feature sensitivity analysis and correlate it with each feature's stand alone performance. The observations suggest that the trained system is more sensitive to a feature carrying higher discriminability with implications towards a better system design. PMID:28713197

Coastal flooding events on the French coast of the eastern English Channel: the result of a combination of meteorological, marine, and morphological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letortu, P.; Costa, S.; Cantat, O.; Levoy, F.; Dauvin, J. C.; De Saint-Léger, E.

2012-04-01

On account of increasing inhabitation and development of coastal areas, the economical stakes are high for forecasting and prevention of coastal flooding risk. Because of its exposure to prevailing Westerlies, morphological, and topographic features, low coastal areas on the French coast of the eastern English Channel are particularly sensitive to this natural risk. This sensitivity, that has always characterized this study area, is becoming worrying to politicians and inhabitants. The study aim is to identify, from 1949 to 2010, the possible increase of frequency and intensity of these meteorological and marine events, and their characteristics for forecasting objectives. The chosen approach is made up of three elements: 1) An analysis of strong west wind over the last decades has been implemented from Meteo-France data of Dieppe, reliable regional meteorological station. Beyond multi-annual random fluctuations, we have noticed a decrease in frequency and intensity of strong winds traditionally involved in flooding events. 2) An analysis of past events has been carried out from many information sources to warrant the accuracy of statements and their exhaustiveness. Thanks to this database, the main results are: i) the absence of increasing trend about frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events; ii) the cartography of coastal flooding risk for each urbanized area; iii) the definition of wind and tide level thresholds (7 m/s and 8.49 m at Dieppe) above which there is flooding. 3) A characterization, on the synoptic scale, of meteorological conditions ending in flooding has been performed. In matching this piece of information with the past events inventory, we have identified: firstly the two major types of low pressure trajectories that generated overflowing, so the two main atmospheric circulations prone to flooding, and secondly the fundamental meteorological aspect of the high north-west pressure gradient (≥ 20 hPa from "Pointe du Raz" (France) to Cromer city (U.K.)) of these flooding events. Frequency of this particular pressure configuration in the English Channel does not highlight any significant trend during the last century. Beyond tide level and wind (speed, direction) thresholds, another factor explains coastal flooding events. This is the matter of atmospheric cold front during high tide, observable in 70 % of coastal flooding events in the eastern English Channel. Analysis of these coastal flooding events cannot be restricted to simple meteorological and marine conditions during overflowing by the sea. This work emphasizes the need for longer analysis period. It is important to encompass the possible beach "preparation time" (lowering of the beach profile) by meteorological and marine conditions for a few days or weeks before flooding event. This "preparation time" may be short: 48 hours of strong winds (> 8 m/s) may be sufficient to shape a beach profile prone to overflowing. Coastal flooding is the result of a combination of factors from various time and space scales, which goes over the simple combination of extreme sea-level and strong wind perpendicular to coast.

Carcinogens induce reversion of the mouse pink-eyed unstable mutation

PubMed Central

Schiestl, Robert H.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Khogali, Fathia; Carls, Nicholas

1997-01-01

Deletions and other genome rearrangements are associated with carcinogenesis and inheritable diseases. The pink-eyed unstable (pun) mutation in the mouse is caused by duplication of a 70-kb internal fragment of the p gene. Spontaneous reversion events in homozygous pun/pun mice occur through deletion of a duplicated sequence. Reversion events in premelanocytes in the mouse embryo detected as black spots on the gray fur of the offspring were inducible by the carcinogen x-rays, ethyl methanesulfonate, methyl methanesulfonate, ethyl nitrosourea, benzo[a]pyrene, trichloroethylene, benzene, and sodium arsenate. The latter three carcinogens are not detectable with several in vitro or in vivo mutagenesis assays. We studied the molecular mechanism of the carcinogen-induced reversion events by cDNA analysis using reverse transcriptase–PCR method and identified the induced reversion events as deletions. DNA deletion assays may be sensitive indicators for carcinogen exposure. PMID:9114032

A cost-effectiveness analysis of combination antiplatelet therapy for high-risk acute coronary syndromes: clopidogrel plus aspirin versus aspirin alone.

PubMed

Schleinitz, Mark D; Heidenreich, Paul A

2005-02-15

Although clopidogrel plus aspirin is more effective than aspirin alone in preventing subsequent vascular events in patients with unstable angina, the cost-effectiveness of this combination has yet to be examined in this high-risk population. To determine the cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone. Cost-utility analysis. Published literature. Patients with unstable angina and electrocardiographic changes or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction. time horizon: Lifetime. Societal. Combination therapy with clopidogrel, 75 mg/d, plus aspirin, 325 mg/d, for 1 year, followed by aspirin monotherapy, was compared with lifelong aspirin therapy, 325 mg/d. Lifetime costs, life expectancy in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Patients treated with aspirin alone lived 9.51 QALYs after their initial event and incurred expenses of 127,700 dollars; the addition of clopidogrel increased life expectancy to 9.61 QALYs and costs to 129,300 dollars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone was 15,400 dollars per QALY. The analysis of 1 year of therapy was robust to all sensitivity analyses. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, fewer than 3% of simulations resulted in cost-effectiveness ratios over 50,000 dollars per QALY. The cost-effectiveness of longer combination therapy depends critically on the balance of thrombotic event rates, durable efficacy, and the increased bleeding rate in patients taking clopidogrel. This analysis may not apply to patients with severe heart failure, those undergoing long-term anticoagulant therapy, those recently managed with revascularization, or those undergoing short-term treatment with glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors. In patients with high-risk acute coronary syndromes, 1 year of therapy with clopidogrel plus aspirin results in greater life expectancy than aspirin alone, at a cost within the traditional limits of cost-effectiveness. The durable efficacy of clopidogrel relative to the risk for hemorrhage should be further explored before more protracted therapy can be recommended.

Affective Disruption from Social Rhythm and Behavioral Approach System (BAS) Sensitivities: A Test of the Integration of the Social Zeitgeber and BAS Theories of Bipolar Disorder.

PubMed

Boland, Elaine M; Stange, Jonathan P; Labelle, Denise R; Shapero, Benjamin G; Weiss, Rachel B; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2016-05-01

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS)/Reward Hypersensitivity Theory and the Social Zeitgeber Theory are two biopsychosocial theories of bipolar spectrum disorders (BSD) that may work together to explain affective dysregulation. The present study examined whether BAS sensitivity is associated with affective symptoms via a) increased social rhythm disruption in response to BAS-relevant life events, or b) greater exposure to BAS events leading to social rhythm disruption and subsequent symptoms. Results indicated that high BAS individuals were more likely to experience social rhythm disruption following BAS-relevant events. Social rhythm disruption mediated the association between BAS-relevant events and symptoms (hypothesis a). High BAS individuals experienced significantly more BAS-relevant events, which predicted greater social rhythm disruption, which predicted greater levels of affective symptoms (hypothesis b). Individuals at risk for BSD may be sensitive to BAS-relevant stimuli, experience more BAS-relevant events, and experience affective dysregulation due to the interplay of the BAS and circadian rhythms.

Ultraconserved elements are associated with homeostatic control of splicing regulators by alternative splicing and nonsense-mediated decay

PubMed Central

Ni, Julie Z.; Grate, Leslie; Donohue, John Paul; Preston, Christine; Nobida, Naomi; O’Brien, Georgeann; Shiue, Lily; Clark, Tyson A.; Blume, John E.; Ares, Manuel

2007-01-01

Many alternative splicing events create RNAs with premature stop codons, suggesting that alternative splicing coupled with nonsense-mediated decay (AS-NMD) may regulate gene expression post-transcriptionally. We tested this idea in mice by blocking NMD and measuring changes in isoform representation using splicing-sensitive microarrays. We found a striking class of highly conserved stop codon-containing exons whose inclusion renders the transcript sensitive to NMD. A genomic search for additional examples identified >50 such exons in genes with a variety of functions. These exons are unusually frequent in genes that encode splicing activators and are unexpectedly enriched in the so-called “ultraconserved” elements in the mammalian lineage. Further analysis show that NMD of mRNAs for splicing activators such as SR proteins is triggered by splicing activation events, whereas NMD of the mRNAs for negatively acting hnRNP proteins is triggered by splicing repression, a polarity consistent with widespread homeostatic control of splicing regulator gene expression. We suggest that the extreme genomic conservation surrounding these regulatory splicing events within splicing factor genes demonstrates the evolutionary importance of maintaining tightly tuned homeostasis of RNA-binding protein levels in the vertebrate cell. PMID:17369403

Scale Dependence of Land Atmosphere Interactions in Wet and Dry Regions as Simulated with NU-WRF over the Southwestern and Southeast US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Wu, Di; Lau, K.- M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2016-01-01

Large-scale forcing and land-atmosphere interactions on precipitation are investigated with NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) simulations during fast transitions of ENSO phases from spring to early summer of 2010 and 2011. The model is found to capture major precipitation episodes in the 3-month simulations without resorting to nudging. However, the mean intensity of the simulated precipitation is underestimated by 46% and 57% compared with the observations in dry and wet regions in the southwestern and south-central United States, respectively. Sensitivity studies show that large-scale atmospheric forcing plays a major role in producing regional precipitation. A methodology to account for moisture contributions to individual precipitation events, as well as total precipitation, is presented under the same moisture budget framework. The analysis shows that the relative contributions of local evaporation and large-scale moisture convergence depend on the dry/wet regions and are a function of temporal and spatial scales. While the ratio of local and large-scale moisture contributions vary with domain size and weather system, evaporation provides a major moisture source in the dry region and during light rain events, which leads to greater sensitivity to soil moisture in the dry region and during light rain events. The feedback of land surface processes to large-scale forcing is well simulated, as indicated by changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture convergence. Overall, the results reveal an asymmetrical response of precipitation events to soil moisture, with higher sensitivity under dry than wet conditions. Drier soil moisture tends to suppress further existing below-normal precipitation conditions via a positive soil moisture-land surface flux feedback that could worsen drought conditions in the southwestern United States.

Feature Acquisition with Imbalanced Training Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Majid, Walid A.; Jones, Dayton L.

2011-01-01

This work considers cost-sensitive feature acquisition that attempts to classify a candidate datapoint from incomplete information. In this task, an agent acquires features of the datapoint using one or more costly diagnostic tests, and eventually ascribes a classification label. A cost function describes both the penalties for feature acquisition, as well as misclassification errors. A common solution is a Cost Sensitive Decision Tree (CSDT), a branching sequence of tests with features acquired at interior decision points and class assignment at the leaves. CSDT's can incorporate a wide range of diagnostic tests and can reflect arbitrary cost structures. They are particularly useful for online applications due to their low computational overhead. In this innovation, CSDT's are applied to cost-sensitive feature acquisition where the goal is to recognize very rare or unique phenomena in real time. Example applications from this domain include four areas. In stream processing, one seeks unique events in a real time data stream that is too large to store. In fault protection, a system must adapt quickly to react to anticipated errors by triggering repair activities or follow- up diagnostics. With real-time sensor networks, one seeks to classify unique, new events as they occur. With observational sciences, a new generation of instrumentation seeks unique events through online analysis of large observational datasets. This work presents a solution based on transfer learning principles that permits principled CSDT learning while exploiting any prior knowledge of the designer to correct both between-class and withinclass imbalance. Training examples are adaptively reweighted based on a decomposition of the data attributes. The result is a new, nonparametric representation that matches the anticipated attribute distribution for the target events.

The role of childhood abuse and neglect in the sensitization to stressful life events in adolescent depression.

PubMed

Harkness, Kate L; Bruce, Alanna E; Lumley, Margaret N

2006-11-01

This study examined the role of childhood abuse and neglect in sensitizing adolescents to the effects of proximal stressful life events in a cross-sectional sample of 103 depressed and nondepressed adolescents. Consistent with hypotheses, adolescents with a history of childhood abuse and/or neglect reported a lower level of threat of stressful life events prior to episode onset than that reported by those without. This effect was specific to those on their 1st episode of depression and was specific to independent events (i.e., stressors outside of adolescents' control). Further, this effect was robust when controlling for level of chronic difficulties, which was higher in those with childhood abuse and/or neglect. The authors suggest that childhood abuse and/or neglect may be an important risk factor that sensitizes individuals to the effects of acute independent life events. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Health economics analysis of insulin aspart vs. regular human insulin in type 2 diabetes patients, based on observational real life evidence from general practices in Germany.

PubMed

Liebl, A; Seitz, L; Palmer, A J

2014-10-01

A retrospective analysis of German general practice data demonstrated that insulin aspart (IA) was associated with a significantly reduced incidence of macrovascular events (MVE: stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease or coronary heart disease) vs. regular human insulin (RHI) in type 2 diabetes patients. Economic implications, balanced against potential improvements in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) resulting from lower risks of complications with IA in this setting have not yet been explored. A decision analysis model was developed utilizing 3-year initial MVE rates for each comparator, combined with published German-specific insulin and MVE costs and health utilities to calculate number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid any MVE, incremental costs and QALYs gained/ person for IA vs. RHI. A 3-year time horizon and German 3(rd)-party payer perspective were used. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed, sampling from distributions of key parameters. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed. NNT over a 3 year period to avoid any MVE was 8 patients for IA vs. RHI. Due to lower MVE rates, IA dominated RHI with 0.020 QALYs gained (95% confidence interval: 0.014-0.025) and cost savings of EUR 1 556 (1 062-2 076)/person for IA vs. RHI over the 3-year time horizon. Sensitivity analysis revealed that IA would still be overall cost saving even if the cost of IA was double the cost/unit of RHI. From a health economics perspective, IA was the superior alternative for the insulin treatment of type 2 diabetes, with lower incidence of MVE events translating to improved QALYs and lower costs vs. RHI within a 3-year time horizon. © J. A. Barth Verlag in Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Utilization of independent component analysis for accurate pathological ripple detection in intracranial EEG recordings recorded extra- and intra-operatively.

PubMed

Shimamoto, Shoichi; Waldman, Zachary J; Orosz, Iren; Song, Inkyung; Bragin, Anatol; Fried, Itzhak; Engel, Jerome; Staba, Richard; Sharan, Ashwini; Wu, Chengyuan; Sperling, Michael R; Weiss, Shennan A

2018-01-01

To develop and validate a detector that identifies ripple (80-200 Hz) events in intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings in a referential montage and utilizes independent component analysis (ICA) to eliminate or reduce high-frequency artifact contamination. Also, investigate the correspondence of detected ripples and the seizure onset zone (SOZ). iEEG recordings from 16 patients were first band-pass filtered (80-600 Hz) and Infomax ICA was next applied to derive the first independent component (IC1). IC1 was subsequently pruned, and an artifact index was derived to reduce the identification of high-frequency events introduced by the reference electrode signal. A Hilbert detector identified ripple events in the processed iEEG recordings using amplitude and duration criteria. The identified ripple events were further classified and characterized as true or false ripple on spikes, or ripples on oscillations by utilizing a topographical analysis to their time-frequency plot, and confirmed by visual inspection. The signal to noise ratio was improved by pruning IC1. The precision of the detector for ripple events was 91.27 ± 4.3%, and the sensitivity of the detector was 79.4 ± 3.0% (N = 16 patients, 5842 ripple events). The sensitivity and precision of the detector was equivalent in iEEG recordings obtained during sleep or intra-operatively. Across all the patients, true ripple on spike rates and also the rates of false ripple on spikes, that were generated due to filter ringing, classified the seizure onset zone (SOZ) with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of >76%. The magnitude and spectral content of true ripple on spikes generated in the SOZ was distinct as compared with the ripples generated in the NSOZ (p < .001). Utilizing ICA to analyze iEEG recordings in referential montage provides many benefits to the study of high-frequency oscillations. The ripple rates and properties defined using this approach may accurately delineate the seizure onset zone. Strategies to improve the spatial resolution of intracranial EEG and reduce artifact can help improve the clinical utility of HFO biomarkers. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern recognition of seismic events in South West Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benítez, Hernán D.; Flórez, Juan F.; Duque, Diana P.; Benavides, Alberto; Lucía Baquero, Olga; Quintero, Jiber

2013-09-01

Recognition of seismogenic zones in geographical regions supports seismic hazard studies. This recognition is usually based on visual, qualitative and subjective analysis of data. Spatial pattern recognition provides a well founded means to obtain relevant information from large amounts of data. The purpose of this work is to identify and classify spatial patterns in instrumental data of the South West Colombian seismic database. In this research, clustering tendency analysis validates whether seismic database possesses a clustering structure. A non-supervised fuzzy clustering algorithm creates groups of seismic events. Given the sensitivity of fuzzy clustering algorithms to centroid initial positions, we proposed a methodology to initialize centroids that generates stable partitions with respect to centroid initialization. As a result of this work, a public software tool provides the user with the routines developed for clustering methodology. The analysis of the seismogenic zones obtained reveals meaningful spatial patterns in South-West Colombia. The clustering analysis provides a quantitative location and dispersion of seismogenic zones that facilitates seismological interpretations of seismic activities in South West Colombia.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graf, Norman A.; /SLAC

Maximizing the physics performance of detectors being designed for the International Linear Collider, while remaining sensitive to cost constraints, requires a powerful, efficient, and flexible simulation, reconstruction and analysis environment to study the capabilities of a large number of different detector designs. The preparation of Letters Of Intent for the International Linear Collider involved the detailed study of dozens of detector options, layouts and readout technologies; the final physics benchmarking studies required the reconstruction and analysis of hundreds of millions of events. We describe the Java-based software toolkit (org.lcsim) which was used for full event reconstruction and analysis. The componentsmore » are fully modular and are available for tasks from digitization of tracking detector signals through to cluster finding, pattern recognition, track-fitting, calorimeter clustering, individual particle reconstruction, jet-finding, and analysis. The detector is defined by the same xml input files used for the detector response simulation, ensuring the simulation and reconstruction geometries are always commensurate by construction. We discuss the architecture as well as the performance.« less

Evaluation of Epidemic Intelligence Systems Integrated in the Early Alerting and Reporting Project for the Detection of A/H5N1 Influenza Events

PubMed Central

Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P.; Hartley, David M.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Linge, Jens P.; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S.; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal; on behalf of the Early Alerting, Reporting Project of the Global Health Security Initiative

2013-01-01

The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7–13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users. PMID:23472077

Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

PubMed

Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P; Hartley, David M; Madoff, Lawrence C; Linge, Jens P; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal

2013-01-01

The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

Stressful life events and depressive problems in early adolescent boys and girls: the influence of parental depression, temperament and family environment.

PubMed

Bouma, Esther M C; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C; Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2008-01-01

Stressful life events increase the probability of depressive problems in early adolescence. Several genetic and environmental risk factors may change individual sensitivity to the depressogenic effect of these events. We examined modification by parental depression and gender, and mediation of the former by temperament and family environment. Data were collected as part of a longitudinal cohort study of (pre)adolescents (n = 2127). During the first assessment wave at approximately age 11, we assessed parental depression, family functioning, perceived parenting behaviours, and temperamental frustration and fearfulness. At the second wave, about two and a half years later, stressful life events between the first and second assessment were assessed. Depressive problems were measured at both waves. Adolescents with parents who had a (lifetime) depressive episode were more sensitive to the depressogenic effect of stressful events than adolescents without depressed parents. Furthermore, girls are more sensitive to these effects than boys. The modifying effect of parental depression was not mediated by temperament, family functioning and perceived parenting. Life events were assessed without consideration of contextual information. Depressive problems were measured by questionnaires that did not directly represent DSM-IV criteria. The measure of parental depression was unspecific regarding severity and timing of depressive episodes. The results suggest that gender and parental depression are associated with increased sensitivity to depression after experiencing stressful life events during adolescence.

Event-specific real-time detection and quantification of genetically modified Roundup Ready soybean.

PubMed

Huang, Chia-Chia; Pan, Tzu-Ming

2005-05-18

The event-specific real-time detection and quantification of Roundup Ready soybean (RRS) using an ABI PRISM 7700 sequence detection system with light upon extension (LUX) primer was developed in this study. The event-specific primers were designed, targeting the junction of the RRS 5' integration site and the endogenous gene lectin1. Then, a standard reference plasmid was constructed that carried both of the targeted sequences for quantitative analysis. The detection limit of the LUX real-time PCR system was 0.05 ng of 100% RRS genomic DNA, which was equal to 20.5 copies. The range of quantification was from 0.1 to 100%. The sensitivity and range of quantification successfully met the requirement of the labeling rules in the European Union and Taiwan.

SIG-VISA: Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.; Mayeda, K. M.; Myers, S. C.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software; however, while such detections may constitute a useful summary of station activity, they discard large amounts of information present in the original recorded signal. We present SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a system for seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By directly modeling the recorded signal, our approach incorporates additional information unavailable to detection-based methods, enabling higher sensitivity and more accurate localization using techniques such as waveform matching. SIG-VISA's Bayesian forward model of seismic signal envelopes includes physically-derived models of travel times and source characteristics as well as Gaussian process (kriging) statistical models of signal properties that combine interpolation of historical data with extrapolation of learned physical trends. Applying Bayesian inference, we evaluate the model on earthquakes as well as the 2009 DPRK test event, demonstrating a waveform matching effect as part of the probabilistic inference, along with results on event localization and sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate increased sensitivity from signal-based modeling, in which the SIGVISA signal model finds statistical evidence for arrivals even at stations for which the IMS station processing failed to register any detection.

Holistic measurement of well-being: psychometric properties of the physical, mental and social well-being scale (PMSW-21) for adults.

PubMed

Supranowicz, Piotr; Paź, Małgorzata

2014-01-01

A holistic approach to health requires the development of tools that would allow to measure the inner world of individuals within its physical, mental and social dimensions. To create the Physical, Mental and Social Well-being scale (PMSW-21) that allows a holistic representation of various dimensions of well-being in such a way as they are perceived by the individuals and how affected their health. The study was conducted on the sample of 406 inhabitants of Warsaw involving in the Social Participation in Health Reform project. The PMSW-21 scale included: headache, tiredness, abdominal pain, palpitation, joint pain, backache, sleep disturbance (physical domain), anxiety, guiltiness, helplessness, hopelessness, sadness, self-dissatisfaction, hostility (mental domain), security, communicability, protection, loneliness, rejection, sociability and appreciation (social domain). The five criterial variables of health and seven of life experiences were adopted to assess the discriminative power of the PMSW-21 scale. The total well-being scale as well as its physical, mental and social domains showed high reliability (Cronbach a 0.81, 0.77, 0.90, 0.72, respectively). The analysis confirmed the construct validity. All the items stronger correlated with their own domain than with the others (ranges for physical: 0.41 - 0.55, mental: 0.49 - 0.80 and social: 0.31 - 0.50). The total scale demonstrate high sensitivity; it significantly differentiated almost all criterial variables. Physical domain showed high sensitivity for health as well as for negative life events variables, while the mental and social domains were more sensitive for life events. The analysis confirmed the usefulness of PMSW-21 scale for measure the holistic well-being. The reliability of the total scale and its domains, construct validity and sensitivity for health and life determinants were at acceptable level.

Aspergillus sensitization or carriage in cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Fillaux, Judith; Brémont, François; Murris, Marlène; Cassaing, Sophie; Tétu, Laurent; Segonds, Christine; Pipy, Bernard; Magnaval, Jean-François

2014-07-01

Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) sensitization and persistent carriage are deleterious to lung function, but no consensus has been reached defining these medical entities. This work aimed to identify possible predictive factors for patients who become sensitized to Af, compared with a control group of non-sensitized Af carriers. Between 1995 and 2007, 117 pediatric patients were evaluated. Demographic data, CFTR gene mutations, body mass index and FEV1 were recorded. The presence of Af in sputum, the levels of Af-precipitin, total IgE (t-IgE) and specific IgE to Af (Af-IgE) were determined. Patients were divided into 2 groups: (1) "sensitization": level of Af-IgE > 0.35 IU/mL with t-IgE level < 500 IU/mL and (2) "persistent or transient carriage": Af-IgE level ≤ 0.35 IU/mL with either an Af transient or persistent positive culture. A survival analysis was performed with the appearance of Af-IgE in serum as an outcome variable. Severe mutation (hazard ratio = 3.2), FEV1 baseline over 70% of theoretical value (hazard ratio = 4.9), absence of Pa colonization, catalase activity and previous azithromycin administration (hazard ratio = 9.8, 4.1 and 1.9, respectively) were predictive factors for sensitization. We propose a timeline of the biological events and a tree diagram for risk calculation. Two profiles of cystic fibrosis patients can be envisaged: (1) patients with nonsevere mutation but low FEV1 baselines are becoming colonized with Af or (2) patients with high FEV1 baselines who present with severe mutation are more susceptible to the Af sensitization and then to the presentation of an allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis event.

On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

2017-10-01

The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

Empagliflozin and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at High Cardiovascular Risk

PubMed Central

Inzucchi, Silvio E.; Lachin, John M.; Wanner, Christoph; Fitchett, David; Kohler, Sven; Mattheus, Michaela; Woerle, Hans J.; Broedl, Uli C.; Johansen, Odd Erik; Albers, Gregory W.; Diener, Hans Christoph

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients), empagliflozin added to standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, driven by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality, with no significant difference between empagliflozin and placebo in risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. In a modified intent-to-treat analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.89–1.56; P=0.26). We further investigated cerebrovascular events. Methods— Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo; 7020 patients were treated. Median observation time was 3.1 years. Results— The numeric difference in stroke between empagliflozin and placebo in the modified intent-to-treat analysis was primarily because of 18 patients in the empagliflozin group with a first event >90 days after last intake of study drug (versus 3 on placebo). In a sensitivity analysis based on events during treatment or ≤90 days after last dose of drug, the hazard ratio for stroke with empagliflozin versus placebo was 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–1.45; P=0.60). There were no differences in risk of recurrent, fatal, or disabling strokes, or transient ischemic attack, with empagliflozin versus placebo. Patients with the largest increases in hematocrit or largest decreases in systolic blood pressure did not have an increased risk of stroke. Conclusions— In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, there was no significant difference in the risk of cerebrovascular events with empagliflozin versus placebo. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01131676. PMID:28386035

Empagliflozin and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus at High Cardiovascular Risk.

PubMed

Zinman, Bernard; Inzucchi, Silvio E; Lachin, John M; Wanner, Christoph; Fitchett, David; Kohler, Sven; Mattheus, Michaela; Woerle, Hans J; Broedl, Uli C; Johansen, Odd Erik; Albers, Gregory W; Diener, Hans Christoph

2017-05-01

In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients), empagliflozin added to standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk reduced the risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, driven by a reduction in cardiovascular mortality, with no significant difference between empagliflozin and placebo in risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. In a modified intent-to-treat analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.89-1.56; P =0.26). We further investigated cerebrovascular events. Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg, empagliflozin 25 mg, or placebo; 7020 patients were treated. Median observation time was 3.1 years. The numeric difference in stroke between empagliflozin and placebo in the modified intent-to-treat analysis was primarily because of 18 patients in the empagliflozin group with a first event >90 days after last intake of study drug (versus 3 on placebo). In a sensitivity analysis based on events during treatment or ≤90 days after last dose of drug, the hazard ratio for stroke with empagliflozin versus placebo was 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.45; P =0.60). There were no differences in risk of recurrent, fatal, or disabling strokes, or transient ischemic attack, with empagliflozin versus placebo. Patients with the largest increases in hematocrit or largest decreases in systolic blood pressure did not have an increased risk of stroke. In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, there was no significant difference in the risk of cerebrovascular events with empagliflozin versus placebo. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01131676. © 2017 The Authors.

Characteristic Paths of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause High Wind Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Lee, D.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the association between wintertime high wind events (HWEs) in the northeast United States US and extratropical cyclones. Sustained wind maxima in the Daily Summary Data from the National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Surface Database are analyzed for 1979-2012. For each station, a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the upper tail of the daily maximum wind speed data, and probabilistic return levels at intervals of 1, 3 and 5-years are derived from the GPD fit. At each interval, wind events meeting the return level criteria are termed HWEs. The HWEs occurring on the same day are grouped into multi-station events allowing the association with extratropical cyclones, which are tracked in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-Interim reanalysis. Using hierarchical clustering analysis, this study finds that the HWEs are most often associated with cyclones travelling from southwest to northeast, usually originating west of the Appalachian Mountains. The results show that a storm approaching from the southwest is four times more likely to cause strong surface winds than a Nor'easter. A series of sensitivity analyses confirms the robustness of this result. Next, the relationship between the strength of the wind events and the corresponding storm minimum sea level pressure is analyzed. No robust relationship between these quantities is found for strong wind events. Nevertheless, subsequent analysis shows that a relationship between deeper storms and stronger winds emerges if the analysis is extended to the entire set of wintertime storms.

Economic evaluation of everolimus versus sorafenib for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma after failure of first-line sunitinib.

PubMed

Casciano, Roman; Chulikavit, Maruit; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Liu, Zhimei; Baladi, Jean-Francois; Wang, Xufang; Robertson, Justin; Garrison, Lou

2011-01-01

A recent indirect comparison study showed that sunitinib-refractory metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients treated with everolimus are expected to have improved overall survival outcomes compared to patients treated with sorafenib. This analysis examines the likely cost-effectiveness of everolimus versus sorafenib in this setting from a US payer perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of sunitinib-refractory mRCC patients and to estimate the cost per incremental life-years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Markov states included are stable disease without adverse events, stable disease with adverse events, disease progression, and death. Transition probabilities were estimated using a subset of the RECORD-1 patient population receiving everolimus after sunitinib, and a comparable population receiving sorafenib in a single-arm phase II study. Costs of antitumor therapies were based on wholesale acquisition cost. Health state costs accounted for physician visits, tests, adverse events, postprogression therapy, and end-of-life care. The model extrapolated beyond the trial time horizon for up to 6 years based on published trial data. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The estimated gain over sorafenib treatment was 1.273 LYs (0.916 QALYs) at an incremental cost of $81,643. The deterministic analysis resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $64,155/LYG ($89,160/QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that results were highly consistent across simulations. As the ICER fell within the cost per QALY range for many other widely used oncology medicines, everolimus is projected to be a cost-effective treatment relative to sorafenib for sunitinib-refractory mRCC. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The value of time-averaged serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in prediction of mortality and dropout in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Chen, Chao-Yu; Li, Yi-Jung; Wu, Hsin-Hsu; Lin, Chan-Yu; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Ming-Yang; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Ku, Cheng-Lung; Tian, Ya-Chung

2017-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a useful biomarker for prediction of long-term outcomes in patients undergoing chronic dialysis. This observational cohort study evaluated whether the time-averaged serum high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP) level was a better predictor of clinical outcomes than a single HS-CRP level in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD). We classified 335 patients into three tertiles according to the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level and followed up regularly from January 2010 to December 2014. Clinical outcomes such as cardiovascular events, infection episodes, newly developed malignancy, encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS), dropout (death plus conversion to hemodialysis), and mortality were assessed. During a 5-year follow-up, 164 patients (49.0%) ceased PD; this included 52 patient deaths (15.5%), 100 patients (29.9%) who converted to hemodialysis, and 12 patients (3.6%) who received a kidney transplantation. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test revealed a significantly worse survival accumulation in patients with high time-average HS-CRP levels. A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, older age, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events were independent mortality predictors. A higher time-averaged serum HS-CRP level, the occurrence of cardiovascular events, infection episodes, and EPS were important predictors of dropout. The receiver operating characteristic analysis verified that the value of the time-average HS-CRP level in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout was superior to a single serum baseline HS-CRP level. This study shows that the time-averaged serum HS-CRP level is a better marker than a single baseline measurement in predicting the 5-year mortality and dropout in PD patients.

Sensitive indicators of Stipa bungeana response to precipitation under ambient and elevated CO2 concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Yaohui; Zhou, Guangsheng; Jiang, Yanling; Wang, Hui; Xu, Zhenzhu

2018-02-01

Precipitation is a primary environmental factor in the semiarid grasslands of northern China. With increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, precipitation regimes will change, and high-impact weather events may be more common. Currently, many ecophysiological indicators are known to reflect drought conditions, but these indicators vary greatly among species, and few studies focus on the applicability of these drought indicators under high CO2 conditions. In this study, five precipitation levels (- 30%, - 15%, control, + 15%, and + 30%) were used to simulate the effects of precipitation change on 18 ecophysiological characteristics in Stipa bungeana, including leaf area, plant height, leaf nitrogen (N), and chlorophyll content, among others. Two levels of CO2 concentration (ambient, 390 ppm; 550 ppm) were used to simulate the effects of elevated CO2 on these drought indicators. Using gray relational analysis and phenotypic plasticity analysis, we found that total leaf area or leaf number (morphology), leaf water potential or leaf water content (physiology), and aboveground biomass better reflected the water status of S. bungeana under ambient and elevated CO2 than the 13 other analyzed variables. The sensitivity of drought indicators changed under the elevated CO2 condition. By quantifying the relationship between precipitation and the five most sensitive indicators, we found that the thresholds of precipitation decreased under elevated CO2 concentration. These results will be useful for objective monitoring and assessment of the occurrence and development of drought events in S. bungeana grasslands.

Modelling suspended-sediment propagation and related heavy metal contamination in floodplains: a parameter sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hostache, R.; Hissler, C.; Matgen, P.; Guignard, C.; Bates, P.

2014-09-01

Fine sediments represent an important vector of pollutant diffusion in rivers. When deposited in floodplains and riverbeds, they can be responsible for soil pollution. In this context, this paper proposes a modelling exercise aimed at predicting transport and diffusion of fine sediments and dissolved pollutants. The model is based upon the Telemac hydro-informatic system (dynamical coupling Telemac-2D-Sysiphe). As empirical and semiempirical parameters need to be calibrated for such a modelling exercise, a sensitivity analysis is proposed. An innovative point in this study is the assessment of the usefulness of dissolved trace metal contamination information for model calibration. Moreover, for supporting the modelling exercise, an extensive database was set up during two flood events. It includes water surface elevation records, discharge measurements and geochemistry data such as time series of dissolved/particulate contaminants and suspended-sediment concentrations. The most sensitive parameters were found to be the hydraulic friction coefficients and the sediment particle settling velocity in water. It was also found that model calibration did not benefit from dissolved trace metal contamination information. Using the two monitored hydrological events as calibration and validation, it was found that the model is able to satisfyingly predict suspended sediment and dissolve pollutant transport in the river channel. In addition, a qualitative comparison between simulated sediment deposition in the floodplain and a soil contamination map shows that the preferential zones for deposition identified by the model are realistic.

A sensitivity analysis of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere. [Mt. Fuego, Guatemala eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, C. F.

1979-01-01

A computer sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the uncertainties involved in the calculation of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere using a 2 dimensional model. The Fuego volcanic event of 1974 was used. Aerosol dispersion processes that were included are: transport, sedimentation, gas phase sulfur chemistry, and aerosol growth. Calculated uncertainties are established from variations in the stratospheric aerosol layer decay times at 37 latitude for each dispersion process. Model profiles are also compared with lidar measurements. Results of the computer study are quite sensitive (factor of 2) to the assumed volcanic aerosol source function and the large variations in the parameterized transport between 15 and 20 km at subtropical latitudes. Sedimentation effects are uncertain by up to a factor of 1.5 because of the lack of aerosol size distribution data. The aerosol chemistry and growth, assuming that the stated mechanisms are correct, are essentially complete in several months after the eruption and cannot explain the differences between measured and modeled results.

Photochemical modeling and analysis of meteorological parameters during ozone episodes in Kaohsiung, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. S.; Ho, Y. T.; Lai, C. H.; Chou, Youn-Min

The events of high ozone concentrations and meteorological conditions covering the Kaohsiung metropolitan area were investigated based on data analysis and model simulation. A photochemical grid model was employed to analyze two ozone episodes in autumn (2000) and winter (2001) seasons, each covering three consecutive days (or 72 h) in the Kaohsiung City. The potential influence of the initial and boundary conditions on model performance was assessed. Model performance can be improved by separately considering the daytime and nighttime ozone concentrations on the lateral boundary conditions of the model domain. The sensitivity analyses of ozone concentrations to the emission reductions in volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) show a VOC-sensitive regime for emission reductions to lower than 30-40% VOC and 30-50% NO x and a NO x-sensitive regime for larger percentage reductions. Meteorological parameters show that warm temperature, sufficient sunlight, low wind, and high surface pressure are distinct parameters that tend to trigger ozone episodes in polluted urban areas, like Kaohsiung.

Eventogram: A Visual Representation of Main Events in Biomedical Signals.

PubMed

Elgendi, Mohamed

2016-09-22

Biomedical signals carry valuable physiological information and many researchers have difficulty interpreting and analyzing long-term, one-dimensional, quasi-periodic biomedical signals. Traditionally, biomedical signals are analyzed and visualized using periodogram, spectrogram, and wavelet methods. However, these methods do not offer an informative visualization of main events within the processed signal. This paper attempts to provide an event-related framework to overcome the drawbacks of the traditional visualization methods and describe the main events within the biomedical signal in terms of duration and morphology. Electrocardiogram and photoplethysmogram signals are used in the analysis to demonstrate the differences between the traditional visualization methods, and their performance is compared against the proposed method, referred to as the " eventogram " in this paper. The proposed method is based on two event-related moving averages that visualizes the main time-domain events in the processed biomedical signals. The traditional visualization methods were unable to find dominant events in processed signals while the eventogram was able to visualize dominant events in signals in terms of duration and morphology. Moreover, eventogram -based detection algorithms succeeded with detecting main events in different biomedical signals with a sensitivity and positive predictivity >95%. The output of the eventogram captured unique patterns and signatures of physiological events, which could be used to visualize and identify abnormal waveforms in any quasi-periodic signal.

Simulation of a master-slave event set processor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comfort, J.C.

1984-03-01

Event set manipulation may consume a considerable amount of the computation time spent in performing a discrete-event simulation. One way of minimizing this time is to allow event set processing to proceed in parallel with the remainder of the simulation computation. The paper describes a multiprocessor simulation computer, in which all non-event set processing is performed by the principal processor (called the host). Event set processing is coordinated by a front end processor (the master) and actually performed by several other functionally identical processors (the slaves). A trace-driven simulation program modeling this system was constructed, and was run with tracemore » output taken from two different simulation programs. Output from this simulation suggests that a significant reduction in run time may be realized by this approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the significant parameters to the system (number of slave processors, relative processor speeds, and interprocessor communication times). A comparison between actual and simulation run times for a one-processor system was used to assist in the validation of the simulation. 7 references.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.; Huerta, Nicolas J.

Determining the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural and induced seismic events holds the opportunity to gain new insights into why these events occur. Linking the seismicity characteristics with other geologic, geographic, natural, or anthropogenic factors could help to identify the causes and suggest mitigation strategies that reduce the risk associated with such events. The nearest-neighbor approach utilized in this work represents a practical first step toward identifying statistically correlated clusters of recorded earthquake events. Detailed study of the Oklahoma earthquake catalog’s inherent errors, empirical model parameters, and model assumptions is presented. We found that the cluster analysis results are stable withmore » respect to empirical parameters (e.g., fractal dimension) but were sensitive to epicenter location errors and seismicity rates. Most critically, we show that the patterns in the distribution of earthquake clusters in Oklahoma are primarily defined by spatial relationships between events. This observation is a stark contrast to California (also known for induced seismicity) where a comparable cluster distribution is defined by both spatial and temporal interactions between events. These results highlight the difficulty in understanding the mechanisms and behavior of induced seismicity but provide insights for future work.« less

A cost simulation for mammography examinations taking into account equipment failures and resource utilization characteristics.

PubMed

Coelli, Fernando C; Almeida, Renan M V R; Pereira, Wagner C A

2010-12-01

This work develops a cost analysis estimation for a mammography clinic, taking into account resource utilization and equipment failure rates. Two standard clinic models were simulated, the first with one mammography equipment, two technicians and one doctor, and the second (based on an actually functioning clinic) with two equipments, three technicians and one doctor. Cost data and model parameters were obtained by direct measurements, literature reviews and other hospital data. A discrete-event simulation model was developed, in order to estimate the unit cost (total costs/number of examinations in a defined period) of mammography examinations at those clinics. The cost analysis considered simulated changes in resource utilization rates and in examination failure probabilities (failures on the image acquisition system). In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed, taking into account changes in the probabilities of equipment failure types. For the two clinic configurations, the estimated mammography unit costs were, respectively, US$ 41.31 and US$ 53.46 in the absence of examination failures. As the examination failures increased up to 10% of total examinations, unit costs approached US$ 54.53 and US$ 53.95, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that type 3 (the most serious) failure increases had a very large impact on the patient attendance, up to the point of actually making attendance unfeasible. Discrete-event simulation allowed for the definition of the more efficient clinic, contingent on the expected prevalence of resource utilization and equipment failures. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modelling phosphorus transport and its response to climate change at upper stream of Poyang Lake-the largest fresh water lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Phosphorus losses from excessive fertilizer application and improper land exploitation were found to be the limiting factor for freshwater quality deterioration and eutrophication. Phosphorus transport from uplands to river is related to hydrological, soil erosion and sediment transport processes, which is impacted by several physiographic and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of phosphorus losses and response to climate change at a typical upstream tributary (Le'An river) of Poyang Lake. To this end, a process-oriented hydrological and nutrient transport model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) was set up for discharge and phosphorus transport simulation at Le'An catchment. Parameter ESTimator (PEST) was combined with HYPE model for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimisation. In runoff modelling, potential evapotranspiration rate of the dominant land use (forest) is most sensitive; parameters of surface runoff rate and percolation capacity for the red soil are also very sensitive. In phosphorus transport modelling, the exponent of equation for soil erosion processes induced by surface runoff is most sensitive, coefficient of adsorption/desorption processes for red soil is also very sensitive. Flow dynamics and water balance were simulated well at all sites for the whole period (1978-1986) with NSE≥0.80 and PBIAS≤14.53%. The optimized hydrological parameter set were transferable for the independent period (2009-2010) with NSE≥0.90 and highest PBIAS of -7.44% in stream flow simulation. Seasonal dynamics and balance of stream water TP (Total Phosphorus ) concentrations were captured satisfactorily indicated by NSE≥0.53 and highest PBIAS of 16.67%. In annual scale, most phosphorus is transported via surface runoff during heavy storm flow events, which may account for about 70% of annual TP loads. Based on future climate change analysis under three different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), there is no considerable change in average annual rainfall amount in 2020-2035 while increasing occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events were predicted. The validated HYPE model was run on the three emission scenarios. Overall increase of TP loads was found in future with the largest increase of annual TP loads under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study (i) verified the transferability of HYPE model at humid subtropical and heterogeneous catchment; (ii) revealed the sensitive hydrological and phosphorus transport processes and relevant parameters; (iii) implied more TP losses in future in response to increasing extreme rainfall events.

Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yimin

This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall collision probability are the minimum separation, the probability that both flights fail to respond to traffic collision avoidance system, the probability that an NMAC results in a collision, the failure probability of the automatic dependent surveillance broadcast in receiver, and the conflict detection probability.

Coronary artery calcification and large artery stiffness in renal transplant recipients.

PubMed

Stróżecki, Paweł; Serafin, Zbigniew; Adamowicz, Andrzej; Flisiński, Mariusz; Włodarczyk, Zbigniew; Manitius, Jacek

2015-09-01

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is an independent predictor of cardiovascular (CV) events in renal transplant recipients (RTR). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), a non-invasive measure of large artery stiffness, also predicts CV events in RTR. The study investigated the relationship between CAC and PWV in RTR and assessed the performance of PWV measurement in predicting CAC. The study was performed as cross-sectional analysis in 104 RTR. CAC was determined as total calcium score (CS) and calcium mass (CM). Carotid-femoral PWV was also measured. Sensitivity, specificity and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the performance of PWV as diagnostic test for presence of CAC. CAC was found in 69% of participants. PWV was higher in RTR with CAC than in RTR without CAC (10.2±2.2 vs. 8.6±15; p<0.001). In univariate analysis CS was significantly correlated with age, duration of hypertension, waist circumference, PWV, hemoglobin concentration, and serum glucose. In multiple linear regression analysis CS was independently associated with age only, but not with PWV. Sensitivity and specificity of PWV>7.6m/s as cut-off for detecting CAC>0 was 0.889 and 0.406, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of PWV>10.2m/s as cut-off for detecting severe CAC (CS>400) was 0.319 and 0.969, respectively. The study confirmed high prevalence of coronary artery calcification in renal transplant recipients. The study does not support the hypothesis that aortic stiffness is independently associated with coronary artery calcification in RTR. PWV measurement may be useful in excluding severe CAC in RTR. Copyright © 2015 Medical University of Bialystok. Published by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

Listening in on Friction: Stick-Slip Acoustical Signatures in Velcro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtado Parra, Sebastian; Morrow, Leslie; Radziwanowski, Miles; Angiolillo, Paul

2013-03-01

The onset of kinetic friction and the possible resulting stick-slip motion remain mysterious phenomena. Moreover, stick-slip dynamics are typically accompanied by acoustic bursts that occur temporally with the slip event. The dry sliding dynamics of the hook-and-loop system, as exemplified by Velcro, manifest stick-slip behavior along with audible bursts that are easily micrphonically collected. Synchronized measurements of the friction force and acoustic emissions were collected as hooked Velcro was driven at constant velocity over a bed of looped Velcro in an anechoic chamber. Not surprising, the envelope of the acoustic bursts maps well onto the slip events of the friction force time series and the intensity of the bursts trends with the magnitude of the difference of the friction force during a stick-slip event. However, the analysis of the acoustic emission can serve as a sensitive tool for revealing some of the hidden details of the evolution of the transition from static to kinetic friction. For instance, small acoustic bursts are seen prior to the Amontons-Coulomb threshold, signaling precursor events prior to the onset of macroscopically observed motion. Preliminary spectral analysis of the acoustic emissions including intensity-frequency data will be presented.

The sensitivity of EGRET to gamma ray polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattox, John R.

1990-05-01

A Monte Carlo simulation shows that EGRET (Energetic Gamma-Ray Experimental Telescope) does not even have sufficient sensitivity to detect 100 percent polarized gamma-rays. This is confirmed by analysis of calibration data. A Monte Carlo study shows that the sensitivity of EGRET to polarization peaks around 100 MeV. However, more than 10 5 gamma-ray events with 100 percent polarization would be required for a 3 sigma significance detection - more than available from calibration, and probably more than will result from a single score source during flight. A drift chamber gamma ray telescope under development (Hunter and Cuddapah 1989) will offer better sensitivity to polarization. The lateral position uncertainty will be improved by an order of magnitude. Also, if pair production occurs in the drift chamber gas (xenon at 2 bar) instead of tantalum foils, the effects of multiple Coulomb scattering will be reduced.

Adjoint Sensitivity Analyses Of Sand And Dust Storms In East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, J.; Kim, H.

2008-12-01

Sand and Dust Storm (SDS) in East Asia, so called Asian dust, is a seasonal meteorological phenomenon. Mostly in spring, dust particles blown into atmosphere in the arid area over northern China desert and Manchuria are transported to East Asia by prevailing flows. Three SDS events in East Asia from 2005 to 2008 are chosen to investigate how sensitive the SDS forecasts to the initial condition uncertainties and thence to suggest the sensitive regions for adaptive observations of the SDS events. Adaptive observations are additional observations in sensitive regions where the observations may have the most impact on the forecast by decreasing the forecast error. Three SDS events are chosen to represent different transport passes from the dust source regions to the Korean peninsula. To investigate the sensitivities to the initial condition, adjoint sensitivities that calculate gradient of the forecast aspect (i.e., response function) with respect to the initial condition are used. The forecast aspects relevant to the SDS transport are forecast error of the surface pressure, surface pressure perturbation, and steering vector of winds in the lower troposphere. Because the surface low pressure system usually plays an important role for SDS transport, the forecast error of the surface pressure and the surface pressure perturbation are chosen as the response function of the adjoint calculation. Another response function relevant to SDS transport is the steering flow over the downstream region (i.e., Korean peninsula) because direction and intensity of the prevailing winds usually determine the intensity and occurrence of the SDS events at the destination. The results show that the sensitive regions for the forecast error of the surface pressure and surface pressure perturbation are initially located in the vicinity of the trough and then propagate eastward as the low system moves eastward. The vertical structures of the adjoint sensitivities are upshear tilted structures, which are typical structures of extratropical cyclones. The adjoint sensitivities for lower tropospheric steering flow are also located near the trough, which confirms that the accurate forecast on the location and movement of the trough is essential to have better forecasts of Asian dust events. More comprehensive results and discussions of the adjoint sensitivity analyses for Asian dust events will be presented in the meeting.

Sensitivity analysis of the DRAINWAT model applied to an agricultural watershed in the lower coastal plain, North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

Hyunwoo Kim; Devendra M. Amatya; Stephen W. Broome; Dean L. Hesterberg; Minha Choi

2011-01-01

The DRAINWAT, DRAINmod for WATershed model, was selected for hydrological modelling to obtain water table depths and drainage outflows at Open Grounds Farm in Carteret County, North Carolina, USA. Six simulated storm events from the study period were compared with the measured data and analysed. Simulation results from the whole study period and selected rainfall...

ANTARES constrains a blazar origin of two IceCube PeV neutrino events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ANTARES Collaboration; Adrián-Martínez, S.; Albert, A.; André, M.; Anton, G.; Ardid, M.; Aubert, J.-J.; Baret, B.; Barrios, J.; Basa, S.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bogazzi, C.; Bormuth, R.; Bou-Cabo, M.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Capone, A.; Caramete, L.; Carr, J.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Coyle, P.; Creusot, A.; De Rosa, G.; Dekeyser, I.; Deschamps, A.; De Bonis, G.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Dorosti, Q.; Drouhin, D.; Dumas, A.; Eberl, T.; Enzenhöfer, A.; Escoffier, S.; Fehn, K.; Felis, I.; Fermani, P.; Folger, F.; Fusco, L. A.; Galatà, S.; Gay, P.; Geißelsöder, S.; Geyer, K.; Giordano, V.; Gleixner, A.; Gómez-González, J. P.; Gracia-Ruiz, R.; Graf, K.; van Haren, H.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Herrero, A.; Hößl, J.; Hofestädt, J.; Hugon, C.; James, C. W.; de Jong, M.; Kalekin, O.; Katz, U.; Kießling, D.; Kooijman, P.; Kouchner, A.; Kulikovskiy, V.; Lahmann, R.; Lattuada, D.; Lefèvre, D.; Leonora, E.; Loehner, H.; Loucatos, S.; Mangano, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Martínez-Mora, J. A.; Martini, S.; Mathieu, A.; Michael, T.; Migliozzi, P.; Neff, M.; Nezri, E.; Palioselitis, D.; Păvălaş, G. E.; Perrina, C.; Piattelli, P.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Racca, C.; Riccobene, G.; Richter, R.; Roensch, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Saldaña, M.; Samtleben, D. F. E.; Sánchez-Losa, A.; Sanguineti, M.; Sapienza, P.; Schmid, J.; Schnabel, J.; Schulte, S.; Schüssler, F.; Seitz, T.; Sieger, C.; Spies, A.; Spurio, M.; Steijger, J. J. M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Taiuti, M.; Tamburini, C.; Tayalati, Y.; Trovato, A.; Tselengidou, M.; Tönnis, C.; Vallage, B.; Vallée, C.; Van Elewyck, V.; Visser, E.; Vivolo, D.; Wagner, S.; de Wolf, E.; Yepes, H.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.; TANAMI Collaboration; Krauß, F.; Kadler, M.; Mannheim, K.; Schulz, R.; Trüstedt, J.; Wilms, J.; Ojha, R.; Ros, E.; Baumgartner, W.; Beuchert, T.; Blanchard, J.; Bürkel, C.; Carpenter, B.; Edwards, P. G.; Eisenacher Glawion, D.; Elsässer, D.; Fritsch, U.; Gehrels, N.; Gräfe, C.; Großberger, C.; Hase, H.; Horiuchi, S.; Kappes, A.; Kreikenbohm, A.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Langejahn, M.; Leiter, K.; Litzinger, E.; Lovell, J. E. J.; Müller, C.; Phillips, C.; Plötz, C.; Quick, J.; Steinbring, T.; Stevens, J.; Thompson, D. J.; Tzioumis, A. K.

2015-04-01

Context. The source(s) of the neutrino excess reported by the IceCube Collaboration is unknown. The TANAMI Collaboration recently reported on the multiwavelength emission of six bright, variable blazars which are positionally coincident with two of the most energetic IceCube events. Objects like these are prime candidates to be the source of the highest-energy cosmic rays, and thus of associated neutrino emission. Aims: We present an analysis of neutrino emission from the six blazars using observations with the ANTARES neutrino telescope. Methods: The standard methods of the ANTARES candidate list search are applied to six years of data to search for an excess of muons - and hence their neutrino progenitors - from the directions of the six blazars described by the TANAMI Collaboration, and which are possibly associated with two IceCube events. Monte Carlo simulations of the detector response to both signal and background particle fluxes are used to estimate the sensitivity of this analysis for different possible source neutrino spectra. A maximum-likelihood approach, using the reconstructed energies and arrival directions of through-going muons, is used to identify events with properties consistent with a blazar origin. Results: Both blazars predicted to be the most neutrino-bright in the TANAMI sample (1653-329 and 1714-336) have a signal flux fitted by the likelihood analysis corresponding to approximately one event. This observation is consistent with the blazar-origin hypothesis of the IceCube event IC 14 for a broad range of blazar spectra, although an atmospheric origin cannot be excluded. No ANTARES events are observed from any of the other four blazars, including the three associated with IceCube event IC20. This excludes at a 90% confidence level the possibility that this event was produced by these blazars unless the neutrino spectrum is flatter than -2.4. Figures 2, 3 and Appendix A are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Detection of sleep disordered breathing and its central/obstructive character using nasal cannula and finger pulse oximeter.

PubMed

Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Grote, Ludger; Hedner, Jan

2012-10-15

To assess the accuracy of novel algorithms using an oximeter-based finger plethysmographic signal in combination with a nasal cannula for the detection and differentiation of central and obstructive apneas. The validity of single pulse oximetry to detect respiratory disturbance events was also studied. Patients recruited from four sleep laboratories underwent an ambulatory overnight cardiorespiratory polygraphy recording. The nasal flow and photoplethysmographic signals of the recording were analyzed by automated algorithms. The apnea hypopnea index (AHI(auto)) was calculated using both signals, and a respiratory disturbance index (RDI(auto)) was calculated from photoplethysmography alone. Apnea events were classified into obstructive and central types using the oximeter derived pulse wave signal and compared with manual scoring. Sixty-six subjects (42 males, age 54 ± 14 yrs, body mass index 28.5 ± 5.9 kg/m(2)) were included in the analysis. AHI(manual) (19.4 ± 18.5 events/h) correlated highly significantly with AHI(auto) (19.9 ± 16.5 events/h) and RDI(auto) (20.4 ± 17.2 events/h); the correlation coefficients were r = 0.94 and 0.95, respectively (p < 0.001) with a mean difference of -0.5 ± 6.6 and -1.0 ± 6.1 events/h. The automatic analysis of AHI(auto) and RDI(auto) detected sleep apnea (cutoff AHI(manual) ≥ 15 events/h) with a sensitivity/specificity of 0.90/0.97 and 0.86/0.94, respectively. The automated obstructive/central apnea indices correlated closely with manually scoring (r = 0.87 and 0.95, p < 0.001) with mean difference of -4.3 ± 7.9 and 0.3 ± 1.5 events/h, respectively. Automatic analysis based on routine pulse oximetry alone may be used to detect sleep disordered breathing with accuracy. In addition, the combination of photoplethysmographic signals with a nasal flow signal provides an accurate distinction between obstructive and central apneic events during sleep.

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

High Energy Follow-up Study of Gravitational Wave Transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, Brandon L.; Patricelli, Barbara

2018-01-01

As second-generation gravitational wave interferometers, such as Advanced Virgo and Advanced LIGO, reach their design sensitivities, a new lens into our universe will become available. Many of the most violent and energetic events in the cosmos, in particular the merger of compact objects and core collapse supernovae, are sources of gravitational waves and are also believed to be connected with Gamma Ray Bursts. Joint observations of electromagnetic and gravitational wave signals will provide an ideal opportunity to study the physics of these transient events and their progenitors. In particular, gamma ray observatories such as Fermi, coupled with precise sky lo- calization, will be crucial to observe the high energy electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave signals. We constructed joint binary neutron star and gamma ray burst detection rate estimates using an analysis pipeline and report on the results of this analysis.

Challenges in Timeseries Analysis from Microlensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Street, R. A.

2017-06-01

Despite a flood of discoveries over the last ~ 20 years, our knowledge of the exoplanet population is incomplete owing to a gap between the sensitivities of different detection techniques. However, a census of exoplanets at all separations from their host stars is essential to fully understand planet formation mechanisms. Microlensing offers an effective way to bridge the gap around 1-10 AU and is therefore one of the major science goals of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission. WFIRST's survey of the Galactic Bulge is expected to discover ~ 20,000 microlensing events, including ~ 3000 planets, which represents a substantial data analysis challenge with the modeling software currently available. This paper highlights areas where further work is needed. The community is encouraged to join new software development efforts aimed at making the modeling of microlensing events both more accessible and rigorous.

Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: CaliforniaSanta Ana wind occurrence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.

2006-01-01

A new methodbased on global climate model pressuregradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weatherconditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of thismethod for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrenceresulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs andobserved offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projectedchange in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climatemodels, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other amiddle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emissionscenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis showsconsistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later(November-December) in themore » season, suggesting that SAOs may significantlyincrease the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, lossof life, and property.« less

Enhancing the sensitivity to new physics in the tt¯ invariant mass distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez, Ezequiel

2012-08-01

We propose selection cuts on the LHC tt¯ production sample which should enhance the sensitivity to new physics signals in the study of the tt¯ invariant mass distribution. We show that selecting events in which the tt¯ object has little transverse and large longitudinal momentum enlarges the quark-fusion fraction of the sample and therefore increases its sensitivity to new physics which couples to quarks and not to gluons. We find that systematic error bars play a fundamental role and assume a simple model for them. We check how a non-visible new particle would become visible after the selection cuts enhance its resonance bump. A final realistic analysis should be done by the experimental groups with a correct evaluation of the systematic error bars.

Studentized continuous wavelet transform (t-CWT) in the analysis of individual ERPs: real and simulated EEG data

PubMed Central

Real, Ruben G. L.; Kotchoubey, Boris; Kübler, Andrea

2014-01-01

This study aimed at evaluating the performance of the Studentized Continuous Wavelet Transform (t-CWT) as a method for the extraction and assessment of event-related brain potentials (ERP) in data from a single subject. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the t-CWT were assessed and compared to a variety of competing procedures using simulated EEG data at six low signal-to-noise ratios. Results show that the t-CWT combines high sensitivity and specificity with favorable PPV and NPV. Applying the t-CWT to authentic EEG data obtained from 14 healthy participants confirmed its high sensitivity. The t-CWT may thus be well suited for the assessment of weak ERPs in single-subject settings. PMID:25309308

Studentized continuous wavelet transform (t-CWT) in the analysis of individual ERPs: real and simulated EEG data.

PubMed

Real, Ruben G L; Kotchoubey, Boris; Kübler, Andrea

2014-01-01

This study aimed at evaluating the performance of the Studentized Continuous Wavelet Transform (t-CWT) as a method for the extraction and assessment of event-related brain potentials (ERP) in data from a single subject. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the t-CWT were assessed and compared to a variety of competing procedures using simulated EEG data at six low signal-to-noise ratios. Results show that the t-CWT combines high sensitivity and specificity with favorable PPV and NPV. Applying the t-CWT to authentic EEG data obtained from 14 healthy participants confirmed its high sensitivity. The t-CWT may thus be well suited for the assessment of weak ERPs in single-subject settings.

Spin-dependent limits from the DRIFT-IId directional dark matter detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daw, E.; Fox, J. R.; Gauvreau, J.-L.; Ghag, C.; Harmon, L. J.; Gold, M.; Lee, E. R.; Loomba, D.; Miller, E. H.; Murphy, A. Stj.; Paling, S. M.; Landers, J. M.; Pipe, M.; Pushkin, K.; Robinson, M.; Snowden-Ifft, D. P.; Spooner, N. J. C.; Walker, D.

2012-02-01

Data are presented from the DRIFT-IId detector operated in the Boulby Underground Science Facility in England. A 0.8 m3 fiducial volume, containing partial pressures of 30 Torr CS2 and 10 Torr CF4, was exposed for a duration of 47.4 live-time days with sufficient passive shielding to provide a neutron free environment within the detector. The nuclear recoil events seen are consistent with a remaining low-level background from the decay of radon daughters attached to the central cathode of the detector. However, charge from such events must drift across the entire width of the detector, and thus display large diffusion upon reaching the readout planes of the device. Exploiting this feature, it is shown to be possible to reject energy depositions from these Radon Progeny Recoil events while still retaining sensitivity to fiducial-volume nuclear recoil events. The response of the detector is then interpreted, using the F nuclei content of the gas, in terms of sensitivity to proton spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon interactions, displaying a minimum in sensitivity cross section at 1.8 pb for a WIMP mass of 100 GeV/c2. This sensitivity was achieved without compromising the direction sensitivity of DRIFT.

Seasonality of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations: Sensitivity to Mean Background State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar

This study investigates the seasonality of tropical intraseasonal oscillations (TISO) in Earths current climate and its relationship with the inter-hemispherical migration of the climatological mean maximum sea surface temperature (SST) and the tropical core of the low-level westerly wind. TISO is identified with anomalies of atmospheric convection with large spatial scale (105 km2) that characteristically exist on the intra-seasonal time scale (20- 100 days period). A new method for tracking the large spatial scale features of convective anomalies, measured by outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), is developed, based on a two-stage Kalman filter predictor-corrector method. Two dominant components of TISO (eastward-propagating and northward-propagating) are classified, and it is found that TISO remains active throughout the year, with eastward propagation of TISO events occurring from November to April and northward propagating events occurring from May to October. The eastward events have a phase speed of 4 m/s, while the northward events propagate at 2 m/s in both the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. A composite analysis of the mean background states (zonal wind, SST and low-level moisture) reveals that the co-occurrence of warm climatological SST and mean westerly wind plays an important role in the direction of propagation and geographical location of TISO. It is hypothesized that the geographical location of TISO occurrences is coupled with SST, moisture and lower tropospheric circulation. The seasonal migration of the mean background state is a potential determinant of the seasonal changes in the characteristics of TISO. A Lagrangian composite analysis with respect to the center of mass of the each convective cloud system was done separately for eastward-propagating TISO events, northward propagating TISO events over the Indian Ocean and northward-propagating TISO events over the west Pacific Ocean. The analysis suggests that the average size of eastward propagating events is 106 km2 and the OLR anomaly at the center of convection is -50 W/m 2, and size of northward propagating events is 106 km 2 and the OLR anomaly at the center of convection is -45 W/ m2. The spatial asymmetry in the mean background state composite moisture, moist static energy, moisture convergence, and vertical velocity all suggest that the development phase of convection lies east of the convection center. A slight shift in moisture anomalies ahead of the convection center and moistening (drying) ahead of (behind) the convection is found in both eastward and northward propagating TISO events. An analysis of the individual terms from the anomalous vertically-integrated moisture budget suggests that vertical moisture advection dominates the local tendency of moisture, but it is balanced by the moisture sink term due to precipitation and evaporation. Column processes (the sum of vertical moisture advection and the moisture sinks) compete with the large drying produced by the horizontal moisture advection. Horizontal moisture advection that brings dry moisture anomalies into the convection area from behind the convective center is common to all three kinds of TISO. Horizontal moisture advection also plays an important role in the moistening ahead of the convection in eastward-propagating and northward-propagating events in the Indian Ocean. Moistening ahead of convection in northward-propagating events in the west Pacific Ocean is accomplished primarily by column processes. To test the hypothesis that the climatological SST maximum and the tropical core of the westerly low-level wind guide the development and propagation of TISO, a series of sensitivity experiments is performed. In these experiments, with initial conditions taken from early boreal summer in several selected years of the free run of the SP-CAM4 (a super-parameterized version of the Community Atmospheric Model, version 4), the lower boundary condition is prescribed as the climatological mean, seasonally varying SST in boreal winter. A companion set of sensitivity experiments is made with early boreal winter initial conditions and prescribed SST from the boreal summer. The four sets of runs were analyzed as was done with the observations. The results of these experiments indicate that the regionality and seasonality of TISO are closely coupled to the SST and the low- level circulation. The SST in the tropics must reach a required threshold for convection to occur, while the low-level circulation controls the direction of propagation by controlling the location of moisture convergence. A moisture budget analysis of the observations and control simulation with the model indicates that both eastward and northward propagating TISO events propagate according to the moisture mode, that is, dynamics are strongly regulated by the processes that control the growth of moisture. TISO remains active throughout the year in both the model and observations. During the boreal summer, when the maximum SST migrates into the northern hemisphere, the SST in this hemisphere becomes conducive for convection organization. The horizontal shear line in the northern hemisphere in the mean background zonal wind during boreal summer modulates the northward horizontal moisture advection. The convection then moves northward in the Indian and west Pacific Ocean basins. During boreal winter, when the maximum SST and low-level westerlies are located in the southern hemisphere, the SST in this hemisphere becomes conducive for convection organization. The mean background wind and anomalies together advect anomalously dry air into the convective region and advect anomalously moist air preferentially on the east side of the convective region, leading to eastward propagation. Column processes in both eastward and northward propagating events maintain the convection by competing with excessive drying produced by the horizontal advection. Column processes also help in moistening ahead of the convection. The analysis is unique insofar as it relies on a new method for tracking intra-seasonal propagating convection anomalies in the tropics and an event-centric Lagrangian moisture budget analysis. The results of the analysis and the sensitivity tests are consistent with published work showing that the moisture mode is the dominant mechanism for propagating organized convection in the tropics.

Detection of somatic mutations by high-resolution DNA melting (HRM) analysis in multiple cancers.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Bosquet, Jesus; Calcei, Jacob; Wei, Jun S; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Sherman, Mark E; Hewitt, Stephen; Vockley, Joseph; Lissowska, Jolanta; Yang, Hannah P; Khan, Javed; Chanock, Stephen

2011-01-17

Identification of somatic mutations in cancer is a major goal for understanding and monitoring the events related to cancer initiation and progression. High resolution melting (HRM) curve analysis represents a fast, post-PCR high-throughput method for scanning somatic sequence alterations in target genes. The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and specificity of HRM analysis for tumor mutation screening in a range of tumor samples, which included 216 frozen pediatric small rounded blue-cell tumors as well as 180 paraffin-embedded tumors from breast, endometrial and ovarian cancers (60 of each). HRM analysis was performed in exons of the following candidate genes known to harbor established commonly observed mutations: PIK3CA, ERBB2, KRAS, TP53, EGFR, BRAF, GATA3, and FGFR3. Bi-directional sequencing analysis was used to determine the accuracy of the HRM analysis. For the 39 mutations observed in frozen samples, the sensitivity and specificity of HRM analysis were 97% and 87%, respectively. There were 67 mutation/variants in the paraffin-embedded samples, and the sensitivity and specificity for the HRM analysis were 88% and 80%, respectively. Paraffin-embedded samples require higher quantity of purified DNA for high performance. In summary, HRM analysis is a promising moderate-throughput screening test for mutations among known candidate genomic regions. Although the overall accuracy appears to be better in frozen specimens, somatic alterations were detected in DNA extracted from paraffin-embedded samples.

Detection of Somatic Mutations by High-Resolution DNA Melting (HRM) Analysis in Multiple Cancers

PubMed Central

Gonzalez-Bosquet, Jesus; Calcei, Jacob; Wei, Jun S.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Sherman, Mark E.; Hewitt, Stephen; Vockley, Joseph; Lissowska, Jolanta; Yang, Hannah P.; Khan, Javed; Chanock, Stephen

2011-01-01

Identification of somatic mutations in cancer is a major goal for understanding and monitoring the events related to cancer initiation and progression. High resolution melting (HRM) curve analysis represents a fast, post-PCR high-throughput method for scanning somatic sequence alterations in target genes. The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and specificity of HRM analysis for tumor mutation screening in a range of tumor samples, which included 216 frozen pediatric small rounded blue-cell tumors as well as 180 paraffin-embedded tumors from breast, endometrial and ovarian cancers (60 of each). HRM analysis was performed in exons of the following candidate genes known to harbor established commonly observed mutations: PIK3CA, ERBB2, KRAS, TP53, EGFR, BRAF, GATA3, and FGFR3. Bi-directional sequencing analysis was used to determine the accuracy of the HRM analysis. For the 39 mutations observed in frozen samples, the sensitivity and specificity of HRM analysis were 97% and 87%, respectively. There were 67 mutation/variants in the paraffin-embedded samples, and the sensitivity and specificity for the HRM analysis were 88% and 80%, respectively. Paraffin-embedded samples require higher quantity of purified DNA for high performance. In summary, HRM analysis is a promising moderate-throughput screening test for mutations among known candidate genomic regions. Although the overall accuracy appears to be better in frozen specimens, somatic alterations were detected in DNA extracted from paraffin-embedded samples. PMID:21264207

Enhanced Area of Secondary Hyperalgesia in Women with Multiple Stressful Life Events: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

You, Dokyoung S; Creech, Suzannah K; Meagher, Mary W

2016-10-01

Stressful life events are associated with increased pain severity and chronicity. However, the mechanism underlying this association remains disputed. Recent animal studies suggest that chronic stress increases pain sensitivity and persistence by enhancing peripheral and central sensitization mechanisms. To test this hypothesis in humans, the authors examined whether sensitization is enhanced in healthy women reporting more stressful life events using the topical capsaicin test. Thirty-two healthy young women reporting varying levels of stressful life events were invited for laboratory pain testing. Capsaicin was applied topically to the volar forearm. Measurements included capsaicin-induced spontaneous pain and area of secondary hyperalgesia in the region surrounding capsaicin application. Physiological (heart rate and skin conductance) and self-reported affective (emotional valence and arousal) states were also measured. The results indicate that more stressful life events predicted a linear increase in the area of secondary hyperalgesia (β = 0.40, p = 0.023, R 2 = 0.16), but not the intensity of secondary hyperalgesia nor capsaicin-induced spontaneous pain. These findings suggest that life stressors may be associated with heightened central sensitization manifested by an increased area of secondary hyperalgesia. Additionally, life stressors were related to greater sympathetic cardiac, but not to affective responses to capsaicin-induced pain. This study shows that women reporting more stressful life events show a larger area of secondary mechanical hyperalgesia. These preliminary findings suggest that life stressors may facilitate pain processing by enhancing central sensitization. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Affective Disruption from Social Rhythm and Behavioral Approach System (BAS) Sensitivities: A Test of the Integration of the Social Zeitgeber and BAS Theories of Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Boland, Elaine M.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Labelle, Denise R.; Shapero, Benjamin G.; Weiss, Rachel B.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

The Behavioral Approach System (BAS)/Reward Hypersensitivity Theory and the Social Zeitgeber Theory are two biopsychosocial theories of bipolar spectrum disorders (BSD) that may work together to explain affective dysregulation. The present study examined whether BAS sensitivity is associated with affective symptoms via a) increased social rhythm disruption in response to BAS-relevant life events, or b) greater exposure to BAS events leading to social rhythm disruption and subsequent symptoms. Results indicated that high BAS individuals were more likely to experience social rhythm disruption following BAS-relevant events. Social rhythm disruption mediated the association between BAS-relevant events and symptoms (hypothesis a). High BAS individuals experienced significantly more BAS-relevant events, which predicted greater social rhythm disruption, which predicted greater levels of affective symptoms (hypothesis b). Individuals at risk for BSD may be sensitive to BAS-relevant stimuli, experience more BAS-relevant events, and experience affective dysregulation due to the interplay of the BAS and circadian rhythms. PMID:27429864

Cost-effectiveness of everolimus vs sunitinib in treating patients with advanced, progressive pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in the United States.

PubMed

Casciano, Roman; Chulikavit, Maruit; Perrin, Allison; Liu, Zhimei; Wang, Xufang; Garrison, Louis P

2012-01-01

Everolimus (Afinitor) and sunitinib (Sutent) were recently approved to treat patients with advanced, progressive pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs). (Afinitor is a registered trademark of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; Sutent is a registered trademark of Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USA.) This analysis examined the projected cost-effectiveness of everolimus vs sunitinib in this setting from a US payer perspective. A semi-Markov model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with advanced, progressive pNET and to estimate the cost per life-year gained (LYG) and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained when treating with everolimus vs sunitinib. Efficacy data were based on a weight-adjusted indirect comparison of the agents using phase 3 trial data. Model health states included: stable disease with no adverse events, stable disease with adverse events, disease progression, and death. Therapy costs were based on wholesale acquisition cost. Other costs such as physician visits, tests, hospitalizations, and adverse event costs were obtained from literature and/or primary research. Utility inputs were based on primary research. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the model's robustness. In the base-case analysis, everolimus was associated with an incremental 0.448 LYG (0.304 QALYs) at an incremental cost of $12,673, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $28,281/LYG ($41,702/QALY gained). The ICER fell within the cost per QALY range for many widely used oncology drugs. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that, overall, there is a trend that everolimus is cost-effective compared to sunitinib in this setting. Results of the indirect analysis were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Assumptions that treatment patterns are the same across therapies may not represent real-world practice. While the analysis is limited by its reliance on an indirect comparison of two phase 3 studies, everolimus is expected to be cost-effective relative to sunitinib in advanced, progressive pNET.

Is thromboprophylaxis cost effective in ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome: A systematic review and cost analysis.

PubMed

Wormer, Kelly Comerford; Jangda, Ayesha A; El Sayed, Farah A; Stewart, Katherine I; Mumford, Sunni L; Segars, James H

2018-05-01

The majority of serious thromboembolic events occurring in assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are in women with ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). The purpose of this study was to present a thorough review and cost analysis regarding the use of venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in OHSS to inform clinical management. Databases used were Pubmed and Embase, in addition to checking reference lists of retrieved articles (inception to November 2017). The systematic search strategy identified 365 titles and abstracts. Articles included in the qualitative synthesis had identified venous thrombosis incidence rates or ratios. A separate search for the cost model was conducted recognizing all associated complications of VTE. The decision tree was modeled to best fit the patient population and a sensitivity analysis was performed over a range of variables. The cost of VTE event per OHSS patient not on prophylaxis was €5940 (range €3405 to €38,727), versus €4134 (€2705 to €23,192) per event per patient on prophylaxis, amounting to a saving of (€19 to €23,192) per VTE per patient. Sensitivity analysis found VTE prophyaxis to be cost effective if the incidence of VTE in the OHSS population was greater than 2.79%. Prophylactic therapy was cost effective through 16 weeks of treatment. OHSS is infrequent and hence, the incidence of VTE in patients with OHSS is low; therefore, the data used to inform the incidence of VTE in OHSS in the model carry some uncertainty. Further, low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) has side effects therefore individualization of care must be considered. With the increasing incidence of infertility and requirement for ART, thromboembolism in OHSS poses a major health threat for patients. VTE prophylaxis using enoxaparin was cost effective in patients with severe OHSS over a wide range of costs and incidences. Prophylaxis was also cost effective through the completion of the first trimester of pregnancy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity booster for DOI-PET scanner by utilizing Compton scattering events between detector blocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Eiji; Tashima, Hideaki; Yamaya, Taiga

2014-11-01

In a conventional PET scanner, coincidence events are measured with a limited energy window for detection of photoelectric events in order to reject Compton scatter events that occur in a patient, but Compton scatter events caused in detector crystals are also rejected. Scatter events within the patient causes scatter coincidences, but inter crystal scattering (ICS) events have useful information for determining an activity distribution. Some researchers have reported the feasibility of PET scanners based on a Compton camera for tracing ICS into the detector. However, these scanners require expensive semiconductor detectors for high-energy resolution. In the Anger-type block detector, single photons interacting with multiple detectors can be obtained for each interacting position and complete information can be gotten just as for photoelectric events in the single detector. ICS events in the single detector have been used to get coincidence, but single photons interacting with multiple detectors have not been used to get coincidence. In this work, we evaluated effect of sensitivity improvement using Compton kinetics in several types of DOI-PET scanners. The proposed method promises to improve the sensitivity using coincidence events of single photons interacting with multiple detectors, which are identified as the first interaction (FI). FI estimation accuracy can be improved to determine FI validity from the correlation between Compton scatter angles calculated on the coincidence line-of-response. We simulated an animal PET scanner consisting of 42 detectors. Each detector block consists of three types of scintillator crystals (LSO, GSO and GAGG). After the simulation, coincidence events are added as information for several depth-of-interaction (DOI) resolutions. From the simulation results, we concluded the proposed method promises to improve the sensitivity considerably when effective atomic number of a scintillator is low. Also, we showed that FI estimate accuracy is improved, as DOI resolution is high.

Studies of elongation factor Tu in Streptococcus faecium (ATCC 9790)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bourbeau, P.P.

1986-01-01

It has been known for over twenty years that elongation factor Tu (Ef-Tu) is one of the proteins involved in protein synthesis in bacteria. Several years ago, it was proposed that Ef-Tu may, in addition, have other structural functions in bacterial. The author's research has examined the function of Ef-Tu in Streptococcus faecium. Using an antibiotic kirromycin, which specifically inhibits Ef-Tu function, the effects upon a number of cellular parameters were determined. Inhibition of both protein and RNA synthesis was found to be similar to the effect of chloramphenicol. Using the residual division technique for the determination of cell cyclemore » events with both heterogeneous and sucrose gradient fractionated cell populations, a kirromycin sensitive event was detected between 8 min. (Td = 30 min.) and 19 min. (Td = 175 min.) later in the cell cycle than the chloramphenical sensitive event. This suggests that kirromycin is inhibiting a terminal cell cycle event which is in addition to the inhibition of protein synthesis. Purification of Ef-Tu was performed using two different methods: ion exchange and molecular exclusion chromatography; and GDP affinity chromatography. Various schemes were employed to try and obtain optimum cellular fractionation, allowing for both proper separation of ribosomes from the other cellular fractions and retention of enzymatic activity by Ef-Tu as determined by a /sup 3/H-GDP binding assay. Analysis of the cell cycle of S. faecium using the residual division technique was also performed. In addition, certain cell wall antibiotics were used to determine if other cell cycle events could be determined using the residual division technique.« less

Constraining shallow seismic event depth via synthetic modeling for Expert Technical Analysis at the IDC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stachnik, J.; Rozhkov, M.; Baker, B.; Bobrov, D.; Friberg, P. A.

2015-12-01

Depth of event is an important criterion of seismic event screening at the International Data Center, CTBTO. However, a thorough determination of the event depth can be conducted mostly through special analysis because the IDC's Event Definition Criteria is based, in particular, on depth estimation uncertainties. This causes a large number of events in the Reviewed Event Bulletin to have depth constrained to the surface. When the true origin depth is greater than that reasonable for a nuclear test (3 km based on existing observations), this may result in a heavier workload to manually distinguish between shallow and deep events. Also, IDC depth criterion is not applicable to the events with the small t(pP-P) travel time difference, which is the case of the nuclear test. Since the shape of the first few seconds of signal of very shallow events is very sensitive to the presence of the depth phase, cross correlation between observed and theoretic seismogram can provide an estimate for the depth of the event, and so provide an expansion to the screening process. We exercised this approach mostly with events at teleseismic and partially regional distances. We found that such approach can be very efficient for the seismic event screening process, with certain caveats related mostly to the poorly defined crustal models at source and receiver which can shift the depth estimate. We used adjustable t* teleseismic attenuation model for synthetics since this characteristic is not determined for most of the rays we studied. We studied a wide set of historical records of nuclear explosions, including so called Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE) with presumably known depths, and recent DPRK nuclear tests. The teleseismic synthetic approach is based on the stationary phase approximation with Robert Herrmann's hudson96 program, and the regional modelling was done with the generalized ray technique by Vlastislav Cerveny modified to the complex source topography.

Freezing of Gait Detection in Parkinson's Disease: A Subject-Independent Detector Using Anomaly Scores.

PubMed

Pham, Thuy T; Moore, Steven T; Lewis, Simon John Geoffrey; Nguyen, Diep N; Dutkiewicz, Eryk; Fuglevand, Andrew J; McEwan, Alistair L; Leong, Philip H W

2017-11-01

Freezing of gait (FoG) is common in Parkinsonian gait and strongly relates to falls. Current clinical FoG assessments are patients' self-report diaries and experts' manual video analysis. Both are subjective and yield moderate reliability. Existing detection algorithms have been predominantly designed in subject-dependent settings. In this paper, we aim to develop an automated FoG detector for subject independent. After extracting highly relevant features, we apply anomaly detection techniques to detect FoG events. Specifically, feature selection is performed using correlation and clusterability metrics. From a list of 244 feature candidates, 36 candidates were selected using saliency and robustness criteria. We develop an anomaly score detector with adaptive thresholding to identify FoG events. Then, using accuracy metrics, we reduce the feature list to seven candidates. Our novel multichannel freezing index was the most selective across all window sizes, achieving sensitivity (specificity) of (). On the other hand, freezing index from the vertical axis was the best choice for a single input, achieving sensitivity (specificity) of () for ankle and () for back sensors. Our subject-independent method is not only significantly more accurate than those previously reported, but also uses a much smaller window (e.g., versus ) and/or lower tolerance (e.g., versus ).Freezing of gait (FoG) is common in Parkinsonian gait and strongly relates to falls. Current clinical FoG assessments are patients' self-report diaries and experts' manual video analysis. Both are subjective and yield moderate reliability. Existing detection algorithms have been predominantly designed in subject-dependent settings. In this paper, we aim to develop an automated FoG detector for subject independent. After extracting highly relevant features, we apply anomaly detection techniques to detect FoG events. Specifically, feature selection is performed using correlation and clusterability metrics. From a list of 244 feature candidates, 36 candidates were selected using saliency and robustness criteria. We develop an anomaly score detector with adaptive thresholding to identify FoG events. Then, using accuracy metrics, we reduce the feature list to seven candidates. Our novel multichannel freezing index was the most selective across all window sizes, achieving sensitivity (specificity) of (). On the other hand, freezing index from the vertical axis was the best choice for a single input, achieving sensitivity (specificity) of () for ankle and () for back sensors. Our subject-independent method is not only significantly more accurate than those previously reported, but also uses a much smaller window (e.g., versus ) and/or lower tolerance (e.g., versus ).

The reliability of manual reporting of clinical events in an anesthesia information management system (AIMS).

PubMed

Simpao, Allan F; Pruitt, Eric Y; Cook-Sather, Scott D; Gurnaney, Harshad G; Rehman, Mohamed A

2012-12-01

Manual incident reports significantly under-report adverse clinical events when compared with automated recordings of intraoperative data. Our goal was to determine the reliability of AIMS and CQI reports of adverse clinical events that had been witnessed and recorded by research assistants. The AIMS and CQI records of 995 patients aged 2-12 years were analyzed to determine if anesthesia providers had properly documented the emesis events that were observed and recorded by research assistants who were present in the operating room at the time of induction. Research assistants recorded eight cases of emesis during induction that were confirmed with the attending anesthesiologist at the time of induction. AIMS yielded a sensitivity of 38 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.5-75.5 %), while the sensitivity of CQI reporting was 13 % (95 % CI 0.3-52.7 %). The low sensitivities of the AIMS and CQI reports suggest that user-reported AIMS and CQI data do not reliably include significant clinical events.

Low-Dose Aspirin for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: 10-Year Follow-Up of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Saito, Yoshihiko; Okada, Sadanori; Ogawa, Hisao; Soejima, Hirofumi; Sakuma, Mio; Nakayama, Masafumi; Doi, Naofumi; Jinnouchi, Hideaki; Waki, Masako; Masuda, Izuru; Morimoto, Takeshi

2017-02-14

The long-term efficacy and safety of low-dose aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus are still inconclusive. The JPAD trial (Japanese Primary Prevention of Atherosclerosis With Aspirin for Diabetes) was a randomized, open-label, standard care-controlled trial examining whether low-dose aspirin affected cardiovascular events in 2539 Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and without preexisting cardiovascular disease. Patients were randomly allocated to receive aspirin (81 or 100 mg daily; aspirin group) or no aspirin (no-aspirin group) in the JPAD trial. After that trial ended in 2008, we followed up with the patients until 2015, with no attempt to change the previously assigned therapy. Primary end points were cardiovascular events, including sudden death, fatal or nonfatal coronary artery disease, fatal or nonfatal stroke, and peripheral vascular disease. For the safety analysis, hemorrhagic events, consisting of gastrointestinal bleeding, hemorrhagic stroke, and bleeding from any other sites, were also analyzed. The primary analysis was conducted for cardiovascular events among patients who retained their original allocation (a per-protocol cohort). Analyses on an intention-to-treat cohort were conducted for hemorrhagic events and statistical sensitivity. The median follow-up period was 10.3 years; 1621 patients (64%) were followed up throughout the study; and 2160 patients (85%) retained their original allocation. Low-dose aspirin did not reduce cardiovascular events in the per-protocol cohort (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.42). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age, sex, glycemic control, kidney function, smoking status, hypertension, and dyslipidemia showed similar results (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.30), with no heterogeneity of efficacy in subgroup analyses stratified by each of these factors (all interaction P >0.05). Sensitivity analyses on the intention-to-treat cohort yielded consistent results (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.25). Gastrointestinal bleeding occurred in 25 patients (2%) in the aspirin group and 12 (0.9%) in the no-aspirin group ( P =0.03), and the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke was not different between groups. Low-dose aspirin did not affect the risk for cardiovascular events but increased risk for gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in a primary prevention setting. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00110448. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Evaluation of the divided attention condition during functional analyses.

PubMed

Fahmie, Tara A; Iwata, Brian A; Harper, Jill M; Querim, Angie C

2013-01-01

A common condition included in most functional analyses (FAs) is the attention condition, in which the therapist ignores the client by engaging in a solitary activity (antecedent event) but delivers attention to the client contingent on problem behavior (consequent event). The divided attention condition is similar, except that the antecedent event consists of the therapist conversing with an adult confederate. We compared the typical and divided attention conditions to determine whether behavior in general (Study 1) and problem behavior in particular (Study 2) were more sensitive to one of the test conditions. Results showed that the divided attention condition resulted in faster acquisition or more efficient FA results for 2 of 9 subjects, suggesting that the divided attention condition could be considered a preferred condition when resources are available. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Confronting ‘confounding by health system use’ in Medicare Part D: Comparative effectiveness of propensity score approaches to confounding adjustment

PubMed Central

Polinski, Jennifer M.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Glynn, Robert J.; Lii, Joyce; Rassen, Jeremy

2012-01-01

Purpose Under Medicare Part D, patient characteristics influence plan choice, which in turn influences Part D coverage gap entry. We compared pre-defined propensity score (PS) and high-dimensional propensity score (hdPS) approaches to address such ‘confounding by health system use’ in assessing whether coverage gap entry is associated with cardiovascular events or death. Methods We followed 243,079 Medicare patients aged 65+ with linked prescription, medical, and plan-specific data in 2005–2007. Patients reached the coverage gap and were followed until an event or year’s end. Exposed patients were responsible for drug costs in the gap; unexposed patients (patients with non-Part D drug insurance and Part D patients receiving a low-income subsidy (LIS)) received financial assistance. Exposed patients were 1:1 PS- or hdPS-matched to unexposed patients. The PS model included 52 predefined covariates; the hdPS model added 400 empirically identified covariates. Hazard ratios for death and any of five cardiovascular outcomes were compared. In sensitivity analyses, we explored residual confounding using only LIS patients in the unexposed group. Results In unadjusted analyses, exposed patients had no greater hazard of death (HR=1.00; 95% CI, 0.84–1.20) or other outcomes. PS- (HR=1.29;0.99–1.66) and hdPS- (HR=1.11;0.86–1.42) matched analyses showed elevated but non-significant hazards of death. In sensitivity analyses, the PS analysis showed a protective effect (HR=0.78;0.61–0.98), while the hdPS analysis (HR=1.06;0.82–1.37) confirmed the main hdPS findings. Conclusion Although the PS-matched analysis suggested elevated though non-significant hazards of death among patients with no financial assistance during the gap, the hdPS analysis produced lower estimates that were stable across sensitivity analyses. PMID:22552984

The application of Global Sensitivity Analysis to quantify the dominant input factors for hydraulic model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, James; Pianosi, Francesca; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Predicting flood inundation extents using hydraulic models is subject to a number of critical uncertainties. For a specific event, these uncertainties are known to have a large influence on model outputs and any subsequent analyses made by risk managers. Hydraulic modellers often approach such problems by applying uncertainty analysis techniques such as the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. However, these methods do not allow one to attribute which source of uncertainty has the most influence on the various model outputs that inform flood risk decision making. Another issue facing modellers is the amount of computational resource that is available to spend on modelling flood inundations that are 'fit for purpose' to the modelling objectives. Therefore a balance needs to be struck between computation time, realism and spatial resolution, and effectively characterising the uncertainty spread of predictions (for example from boundary conditions and model parameterisations). However, it is not fully understood how much of an impact each factor has on model performance, for example how much influence changing the spatial resolution of a model has on inundation predictions in comparison to other uncertainties inherent in the modelling process. Furthermore, when resampling fine scale topographic data in the form of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to coarser resolutions, there are a number of possible coarser DEMs that can be produced. Deciding which DEM is then chosen to represent the surface elevations in the model could also influence model performance. In this study we model a flood event using the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP and apply Sobol' Sensitivity Analysis to estimate which input factor, among the uncertainty in model boundary conditions, uncertain model parameters, the spatial resolution of the DEM and the choice of resampled DEM, have the most influence on a range of model outputs. These outputs include whole domain maximum inundation indicators and flood wave travel time in addition to temporally and spatially variable indicators. This enables us to assess whether the sensitivity of the model to various input factors is stationary in both time and space. Furthermore, competing models are assessed against observations of water depths from a historical flood event. Consequently we are able to determine which of the input factors has the most influence on model performance. Initial findings suggest the sensitivity of the model to different input factors varies depending on the type of model output assessed and at what stage during the flood hydrograph the model output is assessed. We have also found that initial decisions regarding the characterisation of the input factors, for example defining the upper and lower bounds of the parameter sample space, can be significant in influencing the implied sensitivities.

Rumination mediates the relationship between structural variations in ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and sensitivity to negative life events.

PubMed

Qiao, L; Wei, D T; Li, W F; Chen, Q L; Che, X W; Li, B B; Li, Y D; Qiu, J; Zhang, Q L; Liu, Y J

2013-01-01

Individuals have different levels of stress sensitivity. An individual's predisposition to experience negative life events (NLEs) may make him/her more vulnerable to a series of psychopathological and physical diseases. However, the neuroanatomical correlates of individual differences in sensitivity to NLEs remain unknown. In this study, voxel-based morphometry was used to identify the gray matter (GM) associations of individual differences in sensitivity to NLEs measured by adolescent self-rating life events checklist. Results showed that there was a positive association between individual NLEs sensitivity and regional GM volume (rGMV) in the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC). GM was mostly evident in the left frontal operculum and a small part of the left middle frontal gyrus. This region was thought to play an important role in introception. Importantly, our study revealed that rumination served as a mediator between the rGMV of the VLPFC and individual NLEs sensitivity. These findings suggest that people with greater VLPFC might be more inclined to ruminate and the ruminative response style might make them more sensitive to NLEs. Copyright © 2013 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of EGFR mutation testing in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with gefitinib or carboplatin-paclitaxel.

PubMed

Arrieta, Oscar; Anaya, Pablo; Morales-Oyarvide, Vicente; Ramírez-Tirado, Laura Alejandra; Polanco, Ana C

2016-09-01

Assess the cost-effectiveness of an EGFR-mutation testing strategy for advanced NSCLC in first-line therapy with either gefitinib or carboplatin-paclitaxel in Mexican institutions. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a discrete event simulation (DES) model to simulate two therapeutic strategies in patients with advanced NSCLC. Strategy one included patients tested for EGFR-mutation and therapy given accordingly. Strategy two included chemotherapy for all patients without testing. All results are presented in 2014 US dollars. The analysis was made with data from the Mexican frequency of EGFR-mutation. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted on EGFR prevalence. Progression-free survival (PFS) transition probabilities were estimated on data from the IPASS and simulated with a Weibull distribution, run with parallel trials to calculate a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. PFS of patients in the testing strategy was 6.76 months (95 % CI 6.10-7.44) vs 5.85 months (95 % CI 5.43-6.29) in the non-testing group. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that PFS has a direct relationship with EGFR-mutation prevalence, while the ICER and testing cost have an inverse relationship with EGFR-mutation prevalence. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that all iterations had incremental costs and incremental PFS for strategy 1 in comparison with strategy 2. There is a direct relationship between the ICER and the cost of EGFR testing, with an inverse relationship with the prevalence of EGFR-mutation. When prevalence is >10 % ICER remains constant. This study could impact Mexican and Latin American health policies regarding mutation detection testing and treatment for advanced NSCLC.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng; Zhao, Liang

2018-05-01

Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time-to-event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high-dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML-based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high-dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML-based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML-based methods provide a powerful tool for time-to-event analysis, with a built-in capacity for high-dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Utility analysis and calibration of QOL assessment in disease management.

PubMed

Liu, Mo

2018-05-02

In clinical trials, the assessment of health-related quality of life (QOL) (or patient-reported outcome [PRO] measure) has become very popular especially for clinical studies conducted for evaluating clinical benefits of patients with chronic, severe, and/or life threatening diseases. Health-related QOL information and PRO measures are useful for disease management for achieving best clinical practice. In this article, we will focus on health-related QOL assessment. The concept, design, and analysis of health-related QOL in clinical trials are reviewed. Validation of the use of health-related QOL instrument in terms of some key performance characteristics such as accuracy, reliability, sensitivity, and responsibility for assuring quality, integrity, and validity of collected QOL data are discussed. The concept of utility analysis and calibration (e.g., with respect to life events) for achieving the optimization of disease management are proposed. The change of the QOL could be translated into different life events for effective disease management. These translations could evaluate the treatment effect by more directly displaying the change of the QOL.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Application of IATA - A case study in evaluating the global and local performance of a Bayesian Network model for Skin Sensitization

EPA Science Inventory

Since the publication of the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) for skin sensitization, there have been many efforts to develop systematic approaches to integrate the information generated from different key events for decision making. The types of information characterizing key event...

Microbeam mapping of single event latchups and single event upsets in CMOS SRAMs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barak, J.; Adler, E.; Fischer, B.E.

1998-06-01

The first simultaneous microbeam mapping of single event upset (SEU) and latchup (SEL) in the CMOS RAM HM65162 is presented. The authors found that the shapes of the sensitive areas depend on V{sub DD}, on the ions being used and on the site on the chip being hit by the ion. In particular, they found SEL sensitive sites close to the main power supply lines between the memory-bit-arrays by detecting the accompanying current surge. All these SELs were also accompanied by bit-flips elsewhere in the memory (which they call indirect SEUs in contrast to the well known SEUs induced inmore » the hit memory cell only). When identical SEL sensitive sites were hit farther away from the supply lines only indirect SEL sensitive sites could be detected. They interpret these events as latent latchups in contrast to the classical ones detected by their induced current surge. These latent SELs were probably decoupled from the main supply lines by the high resistivity of the local supply lines.« less

The business case for quality improvement: oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Rose, Adam J; Berlowitz, Dan R; Ash, Arlene S; Ozonoff, Al; Hylek, Elaine M; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2011-07-01

The potential to save money within a short time frame provides a more compelling "business case" for quality improvement than merely demonstrating cost-effectiveness. Our objective was to demonstrate the potential for cost savings from improved control in patients anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation. Our population consisted of 67 077 Veterans Health Administration patients anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation between October 1, 2006, and September 30, 2008. We simulated the number of adverse events and their associated costs and utilities, both before and after various degrees of improvement in percent time in therapeutic range (TTR). The simulation had a 2-year time horizon, and costs were calculated from the perspective of the payer. In the base-case analysis, improving TTR by 5% prevented 1114 adverse events, including 662 deaths; it gained 863 quality-adjusted life-years and saved $15.9 million compared with the status quo, not accounting for the cost of the quality improvement program. Improving TTR by 10% prevented 2087 events, gained 1606 quality-adjusted life-years, and saved $29.7 million. In sensitivity analyses, costs were most sensitive to the estimated risk of stroke and the expected stroke reduction from improved TTR. Utilities were most sensitive to the estimated risk of death and the expected mortality benefit from improved TTR. A quality improvement program to improve anticoagulation control probably would be cost-saving for the payer, even if it were only modestly effective in improving control and even without considering the value of improved health. This study demonstrates how to make a business case for a quality improvement initiative.

Economic evaluation of Avonex (interferon beta-Ia) in patients following a single demyelinating event.

PubMed

Iskedjian, Michael; Walker, John H; Gray, Trevor; Vicente, Colin; Einarson, Thomas R; Gehshan, Adel

2005-10-01

Interferon beta-Ia (Avonex) 30 microg, intramuscular (i.m.), once weekly is efficacious in delaying clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) following a single demyelinating event (SDE). This study determined the cost effectiveness of Avonex compared to current treatment in delaying the onset of CDMS. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA) were performed from Ministry of Health (MoH) and societal perspectives. For CEA, the outcome of interest was time spent in the pre-CDMS state, termed monosymptomatic life years (MLY) gained. For CUA, the outcome was quality-adjusted monosymptomatic life years (QAMLY) gained. A Markov model was developed with transitional probabilities and utilities derived from the literature. Costs were reported in 2002 Canadian dollars. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 5%. The time horizon was 12 years for the CEA, and 15 years for the CUA. All uncertainties were tested via univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. In the CEA, the incremental cost of Avonex per ILYgained was $53110 and $44789 from MoH and societal perspectives, respectively. In the CUA, the incremental cost of Avonex per QAMLY gained was $227586 and $189286 from MoH and societal perspectives, respectively. Both models were sensitive to the probability of progressing to CDMS and the analytical time horizon. The CUA was sensitive to the utilities value. Avonex may be considered as a reasonably cost-effective approach to treatment of patients experiencing an SDE In addition, the overall incremental cost-effectiveness profile of Avonex improves if treatment is initiated in pre-CDMS rather than waiting until CDMS.

The effect of icotinib combined with chemotherapy in untreated non-small-cell lung cancer that harbored EGFR-sensitive mutations in a real-life setting: a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Lulu; Li, Yan; Li, Luchun; Wu, Zhijuan; Yang, Dan; Ma, Huiwen; Wang, Donglin

2018-01-01

This study was conducted to compare the efficacy of a combination of icotinib and chemotherapy with icotinib or chemotherapy alone in untreated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients harboring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-sensitive mutations and to analyze the curative effect of different treatments on different genetic mutations (EGFR 19 exon deletion and L858R mutation) in a real-life setting. One hundred ninety-one patients were studied in this retrospective analysis from January 2013 to December 2015. The baseline characteristics, curative effects and adverse events of patients were analyzed. The primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS). Longer PFS and overall survival (OS), and better objective response rate (ORR) were observed in the combination group compared to icotinib or chemotherapy along. For patients with an EGFR 19 exon deletion, the PFS, OS, and ORR in the combination group were superior to those in the icotinib or chemotherapy group. For the patients with the EGFR L858R mutation, better PFS and ORR were observed in the combination group, but OS was not obviously prolonged. Grade 3 or 4 adverse events were most commonly reported with combination therapy or chemotherapy alone. No possible drug-related interstitial lung disease or of drug related deaths occurred. The combination of icotinib and chemotherapy in patients with untreated NSCLC harboring sensitive EGFR mutations resulted in improved PFS and OS, especially in those who harbored the EGFR exon 19 deletion.

The effect of icotinib combined with chemotherapy in untreated non-small-cell lung cancer that harbored EGFR-sensitive mutations in a real-life setting: a retrospective analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Lulu; Li, Yan; Li, Luchun; Wu, Zhijuan; Yang, Dan; Ma, Huiwen; Wang, Donglin

2018-01-01

Purpose This study was conducted to compare the efficacy of a combination of icotinib and chemotherapy with icotinib or chemotherapy alone in untreated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients harboring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-sensitive mutations and to analyze the curative effect of different treatments on different genetic mutations (EGFR 19 exon deletion and L858R mutation) in a real-life setting. Patients and methods One hundred ninety-one patients were studied in this retrospective analysis from January 2013 to December 2015. The baseline characteristics, curative effects and adverse events of patients were analyzed. The primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS). Results Longer PFS and overall survival (OS), and better objective response rate (ORR) were observed in the combination group compared to icotinib or chemotherapy along. For patients with an EGFR 19 exon deletion, the PFS, OS, and ORR in the combination group were superior to those in the icotinib or chemotherapy group. For the patients with the EGFR L858R mutation, better PFS and ORR were observed in the combination group, but OS was not obviously prolonged. Grade 3 or 4 adverse events were most commonly reported with combination therapy or chemotherapy alone. No possible drug-related interstitial lung disease or of drug related deaths occurred. Conclusion The combination of icotinib and chemotherapy in patients with untreated NSCLC harboring sensitive EGFR mutations resulted in improved PFS and OS, especially in those who harbored the EGFR exon 19 deletion. PMID:29731642

Numerical modeling of an intense precipitation event and its associated lightning activity over northern Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, I.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Tegoulias, I.; Kartsios, S.; Bampzelis, D.; Karacostas, T.

2016-03-01

This study investigates an intense precipitation event and its lightning activity that affected northern Greece and primarily Thessaloniki on 15 July 2014. The precipitation measurement of 98.5 mm in 15 h at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki set a new absolute record maximum. The thermodynamic analysis indicated that the event took place in an environment that could support deep thunderstorm activity. The development of this intense event was associated with significant low-level convergence and upper-level divergence even before its triggering and a positive vertical gradient of relative vorticity advection. The high resolution (1.667 km × 1.667 km) non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to simulate this intense precipitation event, while the Lightning Potential Index was utilized to calculate the potential for lightning activity. Sensitivity experiments suggested that although the strong synoptic forcing assumed primary role in the occurrence of intense precipitation and lightning activity, their spatiotemporal variability was affected by topography. The application of the very fine resolution topography of NASA Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission improved the simulated precipitation and the calculated lightning potential.

Evidence for coseismic subsidence events in a southern California coastal saltmarsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leeper, Robert; Rhodes, Brady P.; Kirby, Matthew E.; Scharer, Katherine M.; Carlin, Joseph A.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Avnaim-Katav, Simona; MacDonald, Glen M.; Starratt, Scott W.; Aranda, Angela

2017-01-01

Paleoenvironmental records from a southern California coastal saltmarsh reveal evidence for repeated late Holocene coseismic subsidence events. Field analysis of sediment gouge cores established discrete lithostratigraphic units extend across the wetland. Detailed sediment analyses reveal abrupt changes in lithology, percent total organic matter, grain size, and magnetic susceptibility. Microfossil analyses indicate that predominantly freshwater deposits bury relic intertidal deposits at three distinct depths. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the three burial events occurred in the last 2000 calendar years. Two of the three events are contemporaneous with large-magnitude paleoearthquakes along the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault system. From these data, we infer that during large magnitude earthquakes a step-over along the fault zone results in the vertical displacement of an approximately 5-km2 area that is consistent with the footprint of an estuary identified in pre-development maps. These findings provide insight on the evolution of the saltmarsh, coseismic deformation and earthquake recurrence in a wide area of southern California, and sensitive habitat already threatened by eustatic sea level rise.

A search for the top and b‧ quarks in hadronic Z 0 decays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akrawy, M. Z.; Alexander, G.; Allison, J.; Allport, P. P.; Anderson, K. J.; Armitage, J. C.; Arnison, G. T. J.; Ashton, P.; Azuelos, G.; Baines, J. T. M.; Ball, A. H.; Banks, J.; Barker, G. J.; Barlow, R. J.; Batley, J. R.; Bavaria, G.; Beard, C.; Beck, F.; Bell, K. W.; Bella, G.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Bloodworth, I. J.; Bock, P.; Boerner, H.; Breuker, H.; Brown, R. M.; Brun, R.; Buijs, A.; Burchart, H. J.; Capiluppi, P.; Carnegie, R. K.; Carter, A. A.; Carter, J. R.; Chang, C. Y.; Charlton, D. G.; Chrin, J. T. M.; Cohen, I.; Conboy, J. E.; Couch, M.; Coupland, M.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; Dallavalle, G. M.; Davies, O. W.; Deninno, M. M.; Dieckmann, A.; Dittmar, M.; Dixit, M. S.; Duchesneau, D.; Duchovni, E.; Duerdoth, I. P.; Dumas, D.; El Mamouni, H.; Elcombe, P. A.; Estabrooks, P. G.; Fabbri, F.; Farthouat, P.; Fischer, H. M.; Fong, D. G.; French, M. T.; Fukunaga, C.; Gandois, B.; Ganel, O.; Gary, J. W.; Geddes, N. I.; Gee, C. N. P.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Gensler, S. W.; Gentit, F. X.; Giacomelli, G.; Gibson, W. R.; Gillies, J. D.; Goldberg, J.; Goodrick, M. J.; Gorn, W.; Granite, D.; Gross, E.; Grosse-Wiesmann, P.; Grunhaus, J.; Hagedorn, H.; Hagemann, J.; Hansroul, M.; Hargrove, C. K.; Hart, J.; Hattersley, P. M.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C. M.; Heflin, E.; Heintze, J.; Hemingway, R. J.; Heuer, R. D.; Hill, J. C.; Hillier, S. J.; Hinde, P. S.; Ho, C.; Hobbs, J. D.; Hobson, P. R.; Hochman, D.; Holl, B.; Homer, R. J.; Hou, S. R.; Howarth, C. P.; Hughes-Jones, R. E.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Imori, M.; Imrie, D. C.; Jawahery, A.; Jeffreys, P. W.; Jeremie, H.; Jimack, M.; Jin, E.; Jobes, M.; Jones, R. W. L.; Jovanovic, P.; Karlen, D.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kennedy, B. W.; Kleinwort, C.; Klem, D. E.; Knop, G.; Kobayashi, T.; Köpke, L.; Kokott, T. P.; Koshiba, M.; Kowalewski, R.; Kreutzmann, H.; Von Krogh, J.; Kroll, J.; Kyberd, P.; Lafferty, G. D.; Lamarche, F.; Larson, W. J.; Lasota, M. M. B.; Layter, J. G.; Le Du, P.; Leblanc, P.; Lellouch, D.; Lennert, P.; Lessard, L.; Levinson, L.; Lloyd, S. L.; Loebinger, F. K.; Lorah, J. M.; Lorazo, B.; Losty, M. J.; Ludwig, J.; Lupu, N.; Ma, J.; Macbeth, A. A.; Mannelli, M.; Marcellini, S.; Maringer, G.; Martin, J. P.; Mashimo, T.; Mättig, P.; Maur, U.; McMahon, T. J.; McPherson, A. C.; Meijers, F.; Menszner, D.; Merritt, F. S.; Mes, H.; Michelini, A.; Middleton, R. P.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D. J.; Milstene, C.; Minowa, M.; Mohr, W.; Montanari, A.; Mori, T.; Moss, M. W.; Muller, A.; Murphy, P. G.; Murray, W. J.; Nellen, B.; Nguyen, H. H.; Nozaki, M.; O'Dowd, A. J. P.; O'Neale, S. W.; O'Neill, B.; Oakham, F. G.; Odorici, F.; Ogg, M.; Oh, H.; Oreglia, M. J.; Orito, S.; Patrick, G. N.; Pawley, S. J.; Perez, A.; Pilcher, J. E.; Pinfold, J. L.; Plane, D. E.; Poli, B.; Possoz, A.; Pouladdej, A.; Pritchard, T. W.; Quast, G.; Raab, J.; Redmond, M. W.; Rees, D. L.; Regimbald, M.; Riles, K.; Roach, C. M.; Roehner, F.; Rollnik, A.; Roney, J. M.; Rossi, A. M.; Routenburg, P.; Runge, K.; Runolfsson, O.; Sanghera, S.; Sansum, R. A.; Sasaki, M.; Saunders, B. J.; Schaile, A. D.; Schaile, O.; Schappert, W.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Von Der Schmitt, H.; Schreiber, S.; Schwarz, J.; Shapira, A.; Shen, B. C.; Sherwood, P.; Simon, A.; Siroli, G. P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A. M.; Smith, T. J.; Snow, G. A.; Spreadbury, E. J.; Springer, R. W.; Sproston, M.; Stephens, K.; Stier, H. E.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D.; Takeda, H.; Takeshita, T.; Tsukamoto, T.; Turner, M. F.; Tysarczyk, G.; Van Den Plas, D.; Vandalen, G. J.; Virtue, C. J.; Wagner, A.; Wahl, C.; Wang, H.; Ward, C. P.; Ward, D. R.; Waterhouse, J.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, N. K.; Weber, M.; Weisz, S.; Wermes, N.; Weymann, M.; Wilson, G. W.; Wilson, J. A.; Wingerter, I.; Winterer, V.-H.; Wood, N. C.; Wotton, S.; Wuensch, B.; Wyatt, T. R.; Yaari, R.; Yamashita, H.; Yang, Y.; Yekutieli, G.; Zeuner, W.; Zorn, G. T.; Zylberajch, S.; OPAL Collaboration

1990-02-01

We report on a search for new quarks in hadronic Z° decays. From the event shape analysis of a data sample containing 2185 multihadronic annihilation events, we observe no evidence for the top or b' quarks. We derive limits for the top and b' quark masses under the assumption of various possible standard model and non-standard model decay schemes. Our search is sensitive to quark masses larger than 23 GeV/ c2; it yields the following lower limits at a 95% confidence level: 44.5 GeV/ c2 for the top quark mass and 45.2 GeV/ c2 for the b‧ quark mass.

Search for light dark matter in XENON10 data.

PubMed

Angle, J; Aprile, E; Arneodo, F; Baudis, L; Bernstein, A; Bolozdynya, A I; Coelho, L C C; Dahl, C E; DeViveiros, L; Ferella, A D; Fernandes, L M P; Fiorucci, S; Gaitskell, R J; Giboni, K L; Gomez, R; Hasty, R; Kastens, L; Kwong, J; Lopes, J A M; Madden, N; Manalaysay, A; Manzur, A; McKinsey, D N; Monzani, M E; Ni, K; Oberlack, U; Orboeck, J; Plante, G; Santorelli, R; dos Santos, J M F; Schulte, S; Shagin, P; Shutt, T; Sorensen, P; Winant, C; Yamashita, M

2011-07-29

We report results of a search for light (≲10  GeV) particle dark matter with the XENON10 detector. The event trigger was sensitive to a single electron, with the analysis threshold of 5 electrons corresponding to 1.4 keV nuclear recoil energy. Considering spin-independent dark matter-nucleon scattering, we exclude cross sections σ(n)>7×10(-42)  cm(2), for a dark matter particle mass m(χ)=7  GeV. We find that our data strongly constrain recent elastic dark matter interpretations of excess low-energy events observed by CoGeNT and CRESST-II, as well as the DAMA annual modulation signal.

The TETRA-II Experiment to Observe Terrestrial Gamma Flashes at Ground Level - Analysis of Nearby Thunderstorm Activity and Comparison with Lightning Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D.; Adams, C.; Cherry, M. L.; Al-Nussirat, S.; Bai, S.; Banadaki, Y.; Bitzer, P. M.; Hoffman, J.; Khosravi, E.; Legault, M.; Orang, M.; Pleshinger, D. J.; Rodriguez, R.; Trepanier, J. C.; Sunda-Meya, A.; Zimmer, N.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) are millisecond bursts of high-energy electrons propagated within the atmosphere. An upgraded version of the TGF and Energetic Thunderstorm Rooftop Array (TETRA-II) consists of an array of BGO scintillators to detect TGFs from thunderstorms at ground-level in four locations: the campus of Louisiana State University (LSU) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana; the campus of the University of Puerto Rico at Utuado, Puerto Rico, in conjunction with the already existing Puerto Rico Lightning Detection Network (PRLDN) of radio receivers; the Centro Nacional de Metrologia de Panama (CENAMEP) in Panama City, Panama; and the Severe Weather Institute and Radar & Lightning Laboratories in Huntsville, Alabama. The original TETRA-I array of NaI scintillators at LSU detected 37 millisecond-scale bursts of gamma-rays at energies of 50 keV-2 MeV associated with nearby (< 8 km) thunderstorms. TETRA-II began operation in May 2016 and now has approximately an order of magnitude greater sensitivity to individual events than TETRA-I. The ability to observe ground-level bursts from close to the source allows an analysis of the storm cells producing these events. An analysis of storms associated with TETRA II gamma-ray events is provided using NEXRAD Level II base-reflectivity scans to determine specific storm features before, during, and after the occurrence of each event. Louisiana events appear to occur within most major thunderstorm types, in particular as the cell is transitioning into the dissipating stage of evolution.

A Sensitivity-Based Approach to Quantifying the Costs of Weather and Climate Impacts: A Case Study of the Southern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Adaptation Pilot Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casola, J.; Johanson, E.; Groth, P.; Snow, C.; Choate, A.

2012-12-01

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), with support from the Federal Transit Administration, has been investigating its agency's vulnerability to weather-related disruption and damages as a way to inform an overall adaptation strategy for climate variability and change. Exploiting daily rail service records maintained by SEPTA and observations from nearby weather stations, we have developed a methodology for quantifying the sensitivity of SEPTA's Manayunk/Norristown rail line to various weather events (e.g., snow storms, heat waves, heavy rainfall and flooding, tropical storms). For each type of event, sensitivity is equated to the frequency and extent of service disruptions associated with the event, and includes the identification of thresholds beyond which impacts are observed. In addition, we have estimated the monetary costs associated with repair and replacement of infrastructure following these events. Our results have facilitated discussions with SEPTA operational staff, who have outlined the institutional aspects of their preparation and response processes for these weather events. We envision the methodology as being useful for resource and infrastructure managers across the public and private sector, and potentially scalable to smaller or larger operations. There are several advantageous aspects of the method: 1) the quantification of sensitivity, and the coupling of that sensitivity to cost information, provides credible input to SEPTA decision-makers as they establish the priorities and level of investment associated with their adaptation actions for addressing extreme weather; 2) the method provides a conceptual foundation for estimating the magnitude, frequency, and costs of potential future impacts at a local scale, especially with regard to heat waves; 3) the sensitivity information serves as an excellent discussion tool, enabling further research and information gathering about institutional relationships and procedures. These relationships and procedures are critical to the effectiveness of preparation for and responses to extreme weather events, but are often not explicitly documented.

Source Characterization of Underground Explosions from Combined Regional Moment Tensor and First-Motion Analysis

DOE PAGES

Chiang, Andrea; Dreger, Douglas S.; Ford, Sean R.; ...

2014-07-08

Here in this study, we investigate the 14 September 1988 U.S.–Soviet Joint Verification Experiment nuclear test at the Semipalatinsk test site in eastern Kazakhstan and two nuclear explosions conducted less than 10 years later at the Chinese Lop Nor test site. These events were very sparsely recorded by stations located within 1600 km, and in each case only three or four stations were available in the regional distance range. We have utilized a regional distance seismic waveform method fitting long-period, complete, three-component waveforms jointly with first-motion observations from regional stations and teleseismic arrays. The combination of long-period waveforms and first-motionmore » observations provides a unique discrimination of these sparsely recorded events in the context of the Hudson et al. (1989) source-type diagram. We demonstrate through a series of jackknife tests and sensitivity analyses that the source type of the explosions is well constrained. One event, a 1996 Lop Nor shaft explosion, displays large Love waves and possibly reversed Rayleigh waves at one station, indicative of a large F-factor. We show the combination of long-period waveforms and P-wave first motions are able to discriminate this event as explosion-like and distinct from earthquakes and collapses. We further demonstrate the behavior of network sensitivity solutions for models of tectonic release and spall-based tensile damage over a range of F-factors and K-factors.« less

Source Characterization of Underground Explosions from Combined Regional Moment Tensor and First-Motion Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, Andrea; Dreger, Douglas S.; Ford, Sean R.

Here in this study, we investigate the 14 September 1988 U.S.–Soviet Joint Verification Experiment nuclear test at the Semipalatinsk test site in eastern Kazakhstan and two nuclear explosions conducted less than 10 years later at the Chinese Lop Nor test site. These events were very sparsely recorded by stations located within 1600 km, and in each case only three or four stations were available in the regional distance range. We have utilized a regional distance seismic waveform method fitting long-period, complete, three-component waveforms jointly with first-motion observations from regional stations and teleseismic arrays. The combination of long-period waveforms and first-motionmore » observations provides a unique discrimination of these sparsely recorded events in the context of the Hudson et al. (1989) source-type diagram. We demonstrate through a series of jackknife tests and sensitivity analyses that the source type of the explosions is well constrained. One event, a 1996 Lop Nor shaft explosion, displays large Love waves and possibly reversed Rayleigh waves at one station, indicative of a large F-factor. We show the combination of long-period waveforms and P-wave first motions are able to discriminate this event as explosion-like and distinct from earthquakes and collapses. We further demonstrate the behavior of network sensitivity solutions for models of tectonic release and spall-based tensile damage over a range of F-factors and K-factors.« less

MUSiC - Model-independent search for deviations from Standard Model predictions in CMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieta, Holger

2010-02-01

We present an approach for a model independent search in CMS. Systematically scanning the data for deviations from the standard model Monte Carlo expectations, such an analysis can help to understand the detector and tune event generators. By minimizing the theoretical bias the analysis is furthermore sensitive to a wide range of models for new physics, including the uncounted number of models not-yet-thought-of. After sorting the events into classes defined by their particle content (leptons, photons, jets and missing transverse energy), a minimally prejudiced scan is performed on a number of distributions. Advanced statistical methods are used to determine the significance of the deviating regions, rigorously taking systematic uncertainties into account. A number of benchmark scenarios, including common models of new physics and possible detector effects, have been used to gauge the power of such a method. )

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Landscape sensitivity in a dynamic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jiun-Chuan; Jen, Chia-Horn

2010-05-01

Landscape sensitivity at different scales and topics is presented in this study. Methodological approach composed most of this paper. According to the environmental records in the south eastern Asia, the environment change is highly related with five factors, such as scale of influence area, background of environment characters, magnitude and frequency of events, thresholds of occurring hazards and influence by time factor. This paper tries to demonstrate above five points from historical and present data. It is found that landscape sensitivity is highly related to the degree of vulnerability of the land and the processes which put on the ground including human activities. The scale of sensitivity and evaluation of sensitivities is demonstrated in this paper by the data around east Asia. The methods of classification are mainly from the analysis of environmental data and the records of hazards. From the trend of rainfall records, rainfall intensity and change of temperature, the magnitude and frequency of earthquake, dust storm, days of draught, number of hazards, there are many coincidence on these factors with landscape sensitivities. In conclusion, the landscape sensitivities could be classified as four groups: physical stable, physical unstable, unstable, extremely unstable. This paper explain the difference.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Oklahoma earthquakes: Exploring relationships using a nearest-neighbor approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.; Huerta, Nicolas J.

2017-07-01

Determining the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural and induced seismic events holds the opportunity to gain new insights into why these events occur. Linking the seismicity characteristics with other geologic, geographic, natural, or anthropogenic factors could help to identify the causes and suggest mitigation strategies that reduce the risk associated with such events. The nearest-neighbor approach utilized in this work represents a practical first step toward identifying statistically correlated clusters of recorded earthquake events. Detailed study of the Oklahoma earthquake catalog's inherent errors, empirical model parameters, and model assumptions is presented. We found that the cluster analysis results are stable with respect to empirical parameters (e.g., fractal dimension) but were sensitive to epicenter location errors and seismicity rates. Most critically, we show that the patterns in the distribution of earthquake clusters in Oklahoma are primarily defined by spatial relationships between events. This observation is a stark contrast to California (also known for induced seismicity) where a comparable cluster distribution is defined by both spatial and temporal interactions between events. These results highlight the difficulty in understanding the mechanisms and behavior of induced seismicity but provide insights for future work.

The cradle of causal reasoning: newborns' preference for physical causality.

PubMed

Mascalzoni, Elena; Regolin, Lucia; Vallortigara, Giorgio; Simion, Francesca

2013-05-01

Perception of mechanical (i.e. physical) causality, in terms of a cause-effect relationship between two motion events, appears to be a powerful mechanism in our daily experience. In spite of a growing interest in the earliest causal representations, the role of experience in the origin of this sensitivity is still a matter of dispute. Here, we asked the question about the innate origin of causal perception, never tested before at birth. Three experiments were carried out to investigate sensitivity at birth to some visual spatiotemporal cues present in a launching event. Newborn babies, only a few hours old, showed that they significantly preferred a physical causality event (i.e. Michotte's Launching effect) when matched to a delay event (i.e. a delayed launching; Experiment 1) or to a non-causal event completely identical to the causal one except for the order of the displacements of the two objects involved which was swapped temporally (Experiment 3). This preference for the launching event, moreover, also depended on the continuity of the trajectory between the objects involved in the event (Experiment 2). These results support the hypothesis that the human system possesses an early available, possibly innate basic mechanism to compute causality, such a mechanism being sensitive to the additive effect of certain well-defined spatiotemporal cues present in the causal event independently of any prior visual experience. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Heavy Ion Irradiation Fluence Dependence for Single-Event Upsets of NAND Flash Memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dakai; Wilcox, Edward; Ladbury, Raymond; Kim, Hak; Phan, Anthony; Seidleck, Christina; LaBel, Kenneth

2016-01-01

We investigated the single-event effect (SEE) susceptibility of the Micron 16 nm NAND flash, and found the single-event upset (SEU) cross section varied inversely with fluence. The SEU cross section decreased with increasing fluence. We attribute the effect to the variable upset sensitivities of the memory cells. The current test standards and procedures assume that SEU follow a Poisson process and do not take into account the variability in the error rate with fluence. Therefore, heavy ion irradiation of devices with variable upset sensitivity distribution using typical fluence levels may underestimate the cross section and on-orbit event rate.

The Predictive Role of Interpersonal Sensitivity and Emotional Self-Efficacy on Psychological Resilience among Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aydogdu, Bilge Nuran; Celik, Hilal; Eksi, Halil

2017-01-01

Purpose: In the face of adverse and traumatic events throughout their lives, individuals respond in different ways depending on their degree of resilience, factors of which include their individual resources for coping with those events. This study examined the predictive role of emotional self-efficacy and interpersonal sensitivity on…

Interpretation of Verb Phrase Telicity: Sensitivity to Verb Type and Determiner Type

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogiela, Diane A.; Schmitt, Cristina; Casby, Michael W.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The authors examine how adults use linguistic information from verbs, direct objects, and particles to interpret an event description as encoding a logical endpoint to the event described (in which case, it is telic) or not (in which case, it is atelic). Current models of aspectual composition predict that quantity-sensitive verbs…

An optimised oscillation analysis of MINOS beam data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Culling, Andrew John

2007-09-01

This thesis presents results of the MINOS long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment. Charged Current interactions of v μ from the NuMI beamline have been recorded in both the Near and Far Detectors between May 2005 and February 2006, corresponding to 1.27 x 10 20 protons being delivered to the NuMI target. Several techniques for improving the sensitivity of an oscillation measurement are discussed and their impact assessed. 378 events are observed in the Far Detector during this period, compared to a prediction of 459 ± 31 events are observed in the Far Detector during this period, compared to a prediction of 459 ± 31 events when the observed Near Detector spectrum is extrapolated to the Far Detector over the 735 km baseline with no oscillations. In addition to this deficit of observed events, there is also evidence for spectral distortion in the Far Detector. A maximum likelihood analysis is used to determine the best fit point and allowed regions in Δmmore » $$2\\atop{23}$$ and sin 22θ 23 parameter space. The best fit values for Δm$$2\\atop{23}$$ and sin 22θ 23 are found to be 2.55$$+0.39\\atop{-0.24}$$ x 10 -3 eV 2 and > 0.87 (68% CL) respectively.« less

The Background of Reduced Face Specificity of N170 in Congenital Prosopagnosia

PubMed Central

Schweinberger, Stefan R.; Vakli, Pál; Kovács, Gyula

2014-01-01

Congenital prosopagnosia is lifelong face-recognition impairment in the absence of evidence for structural brain damage. To study the neural correlates of congenital prosopagnosia, we measured the face-sensitive N170 component of the event-related potential in three members of the same family (father (56 y), son (25 y) and daughter (22 y)) and in age-matched neurotypical participants (young controls: n = 14; 24.5 y±2.1; old controls: n = 6; 57.3 y±5.4). To compare the face sensitivity of N170 in congenital prosopagnosic and neurotypical participants we measured the event-related potentials for faces and phase-scrambled random noise stimuli. In neurotypicals we found significantly larger N170 amplitude for faces compared to noise stimuli, reflecting normal early face processing. The congenital prosopagnosic participants, by contrast, showed reduced face sensitivity of the N170, and this was due to a larger than normal noise-elicited N170, rather than to a smaller face-elicited N170. Interestingly, single-trial analysis revealed that the lack of face sensitivity in congenital prosopagnosia is related to a larger oscillatory power and phase-locking in the theta frequency-band (4–7 Hz, 130–190 ms) as well as to a lower intertrial jitter of the response latency for the noise stimuli. Altogether, these results suggest that congenital prosopagnosia is due to the deficit of early, structural encoding steps of face perception in filtering between face and non-face stimuli. PMID:24983881

Decision Making Methodology to Mitigate Damage From Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Cuellar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Nepal leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, moraine failure or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Imja Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has experienced accelerated growth since it first appeared in the 1960s. Communities threatened by a flood from Imja Lake have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat of a GLOF. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Imja have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects in part because this information is unknown or uncertain. This work presents a demonstration of a decision making methodology developed to rationally analyze the risks posed by Imja Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed using available information. In this work the authors use decision analysis, data envelopement analysis (DEA), and sensitivity analysis to assess proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding and estimate fatalities using an empirical method developed for dam failures. The DEA methodology allows us to estimate the value of a statistical life implied by each project given the cost of the project and number of lives saved to determine which project is the most efficient. In contrast the decision analysis methodology requires fatalities to be assigned a cost but allows the inclusion of uncertainty in the decision making process. We compare the output of these two methodologies and determine the sensitivity of the conclusions to changes in uncertain input parameters including project cost, value of a statistical life, and time to a GLOF event.

Amplitude analysis of four-body decays using a massively-parallel fitting framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasse, C.; Albrecht, J.; Alves, A. A., Jr.; d'Argent, P.; Evans, T. D.; Rademacker, J.; Sokoloff, M. D.

2017-10-01

The GooFit Framework is designed to perform maximum-likelihood fits for arbitrary functions on various parallel back ends, for example a GPU. We present an extension to GooFit which adds the functionality to perform time-dependent amplitude analyses of pseudoscalar mesons decaying into four pseudoscalar final states. Benchmarks of this functionality show a significant performance increase when utilizing a GPU compared to a CPU. Furthermore, this extension is employed to study the sensitivity on the {{{D}}}0-{\\bar{{{D}}}}0 mixing parameters x and y in a time-dependent amplitude analysis of the decay D0 → K+π-π+π-. Studying a sample of 50 000 events and setting the central values to the world average of x = (0.49 ± 0.15)% and y = (0.61 ± 0.08)%, the statistical sensitivities of x and y are determined to be σ(x) = 0.019 % and σ(y) = 0.019 %.

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of a Severe Downslope Windstorm in Complex Terrain: Implications for Forecast Predictability Scales and Targeted Observing Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

wave breaking (NWB) and eight wave breaking (WB) storms are shown...studies, and it follows that the wind storm characteristics are likely more three dimensional as well. For the purposes of this study, a severe DSWS is...regularly using the HWAS network at USAFA since its installation in 2004. A careful examination of these events reveals downslope storms that are

Probing light sterile neutrino signatures at reactor and Spallation Neutron Source neutrino experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmas, T. S.; Papoulias, D. K.; Tórtola, M.; Valle, J. W. F.

2017-09-01

We investigate the impact of a fourth sterile neutrino at reactor and Spallation Neutron Source neutrino detectors. Specifically, we explore the discovery potential of the TEXONO and COHERENT experiments to subleading sterile neutrino effects through the measurement of the coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering event rate. Our dedicated χ2-sensitivity analysis employs realistic nuclear structure calculations adequate for high purity sub-keV threshold Germanium detectors.

Measurements of underlying-event properties using neutral and charged particles in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}=900$$ GeV and $$\\sqrt{s}=7$$ TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2011-05-10

We present first measurements of charged and neutral particle-flow correlations in pp collisions using the ATLAS calorimeters. Data were collected in 2009 and 2010 at centre-of-mass energies of 900 GeV and 7 TeV. Events were selected using a minimum-bias trigger which required a charged particle in scintillation counters on either side of the interaction point. Particle flows, sensitive to the underlying event, are measured using clusters of energy in the ATLAS calorimeters, taking advantage of their fine granularity. No Monte Carlo generator used in this analysis can accurately describe the measurements. The results are independent of those based on chargedmore » particles measured by the ATLAS tracking systems and can be used to constrain the parameters of Monte Carlo generators.« less

A Search for WIMP Dark Matter using an Optimized Chi-square Technique on the Final Data from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search Experiment (CDMS II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manungu Kiveni, Joseph

2012-06-01

During the last two decades, cosmology has become a precision observational science thanks (in part) to the incredible number of experiments performed to better understand the composition of the universe. The large amount of data accumulated strongly indicates that the bulk of the universe's matter is in the form of non-baryonic matter that does not interact electromagnetically. Combined evidence from the dynamics of galaxies and galaxy clusters confirms that most of the mass in the universe is not composed of any known form of matter. Measurements of the cosmic microwave background, big bang nucleosynthesis and many other experiments indicate that ˜80% of the matter in the universe is dark, non-relativistic and cold. The dark matter resides in the halos surrounding galaxies, galaxy clusters and other large-scale structures. Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) are well motivated class of dark matter candidates that arise naturally in supersymmetric extensions to the Standard Model of particles physics, and can be produced as non-relativistic thermal relics in the early universe with about the right density to account for the missing mass. The Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) experiment seeks to directly detect the keV-scale energy deposited by WIMPs in the galactic halo when they scatter from nuclei in the crystalline detectors made of germanium and silicon. These detectors, called Z-sensitive Ionization and Phonon detectors (ZIPs) are operated at ˜ 45 mK and simultaneously measure the ionization and the (athermal) phonons produced by particle interactions. The ratio of ionization and phonon energies allows discrimination of a low rate of nuclear recoils (expected for WIMPs) from an overwhelming rate of electron recoils (expected for most backgrounds). Phonon-pulse shape and timing enables further suppression of lower-rate interactions at the detector surfaces. This dissertation describes the results of a WIMP search using CDMS II data sets accumulated at the Soudan Underground Laboratory in Minnesota. Results from the original analysis of these data were published in 2009; two events were observed in the signal region with an expected leakage of 0.9 events. Further investigation revealed an issue with the ionization-pulse reconstruction algorithm leading to a software upgrade and a subsequent reanalysis of the data. As part of the reanalysis, I performed an advanced discrimination technique to better distinguish (potential) signal events from backgrounds using a 5-dimensional chi-square method. This data-analysis technique combines the event information recorded for each WIMP-search event to derive a background-discrimination parameter capable of reducing the expected background to less than one event, while maintaining high efficiency for signal events. Furthermore, optimizing the cut positions of this 5-dimensional chi-square parameter for the 14 viable germanium detectors yields an improved expected sensitivity to WIMP interactions relative to previous CDMS results. This dissertation describes my improved (and optimized) discrimination technique and the results obtained from a blind application to the reanalyzed CDMS II WIMP-search data. This analysis achieved the best expected sensitivity of the three techniques developed for the reanalysis and so was chosen as the primary timing analysis whose limit will be quoted in a on-going publication paper which is currently in preparation. For this analysis, a total raw exposure of 612.17 kg-days are analyzed for this work. No candidate events was observed, and a corresponding upper limit on the WIMP-nucleon scattering cross section as a function of WIMP mass is defined. These data set a 90% upper limit on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon elastic-scattering cross section of 3.19 × 10-44 cm2 for a WIMP mass of 60 GeV c 2. Combining this result with all previous CDMS II data gives an upper limit of 1.96 ×10-44 cm2 for a WIMP of mass 60 GeV/c2 (a factor of 2 better than the original analysis). At the moment this analysis is being written, the WIMP-search results obtained with the reanalyzed CDMS II data occupies the second most stringent limits on WIMP-nucleon scattering, after XENON100, excluding previously unexplored parameter space. Interesting parameter space is excluded for WIMP-nucleon cross section as function of WIMP masse under standard assumptions, the parameter space favored by interpretations of other experiments's data as low-mass WIMP signals due to an excess of low energy events and annual modulation is partially excluded for DAMA/LIBRA and CoGeNT.

A New Method for Assessing How Sensitivity and Specificity of Linkage Studies Affects Estimation

PubMed Central

Moore, Cecilia L.; Amin, Janaki; Gidding, Heather F.; Law, Matthew G.

2014-01-01

Background While the importance of record linkage is widely recognised, few studies have attempted to quantify how linkage errors may have impacted on their own findings and outcomes. Even where authors of linkage studies have attempted to estimate sensitivity and specificity based on subjects with known status, the effects of false negatives and positives on event rates and estimates of effect are not often described. Methods We present quantification of the effect of sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process on event rates and incidence, as well as the resultant effect on relative risks. Formulae to estimate the true number of events and estimated relative risk adjusted for given linkage sensitivity and specificity are then derived and applied to data from a prisoner mortality study. The implications of false positive and false negative matches are also discussed. Discussion Comparisons of the effect of sensitivity and specificity on incidence and relative risks indicate that it is more important for linkages to be highly specific than sensitive, particularly if true incidence rates are low. We would recommend that, where possible, some quantitative estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process be performed, allowing the effect of these quantities on observed results to be assessed. PMID:25068293

Contrasting above- and belowground sensitivity of three Great Plains grasslands to altered rainfall regimes.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; von Fischer, Joseph C; Muscha, Jennifer M; Petersen, Mark K; Knapp, Alan K

2015-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle with atmospheric warming is expected to increase interannual variation in precipitation amount and the frequency of extreme precipitation events. Although studies in grasslands have shown sensitivity of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to both precipitation amount and event size, we lack equivalent knowledge for responses of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) and NPP. We conducted a 2-year experiment in three US Great Plains grasslands--the C4-dominated shortgrass prairie (SGP; low ANPP) and tallgrass prairie (TGP; high ANPP), and the C3-dominated northern mixed grass prairie (NMP; intermediate ANPP)--to test three predictions: (i) both ANPP and BNPP responses to increased precipitation amount would vary inversely with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and site productivity; (ii) increased numbers of extreme rainfall events during high-rainfall years would affect high and low MAP sites differently; and (iii) responses belowground would mirror those aboveground. We increased growing season precipitation by as much as 50% by augmenting natural rainfall via (i) many (11-13) small or (ii) fewer (3-5) large watering events, with the latter coinciding with naturally occurring large storms. Both ANPP and BNPP increased with water addition in the two C4 grasslands, with greater ANPP sensitivity in TGP, but greater BNPP and NPP sensitivity in SGP. ANPP and BNPP did not respond to any rainfall manipulations in the C3 -dominated NMP. Consistent with previous studies, fewer larger (extreme) rainfall events increased ANPP relative to many small events in SGP, but event size had no effect in TGP. Neither system responded consistently above- and belowground to event size; consequently, total NPP was insensitive to event size. The diversity of responses observed in these three grassland types underscores the challenge of predicting responses relevant to C cycling to forecast changes in precipitation regimes even within relatively homogeneous biomes such as grasslands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Osovizky, A.; Rotem Industries Ltd, Rotem Industrial Park; University of Maryland, College park, Maryland

A Chromatic Analysis Neutron Diffractometer Or Reflectometer (CANDOR) is under development at the NIST Center for Neutron Research (NCNR). The CANDOR neutron sensor will rely on scintillator material for detecting the neutrons scattered by the sample under test. It consists of {sup 6}LiF:ZnS(Ag) scintillator material into which wavelength shifting (WLS) fibers have been embedded. Solid state photo-sensors (silicon photomultipliers) coupled to the WLS fibers are used to detect the light produced by the neutron capture event ({sup 6}Li (n,α) {sup 3}H reaction) and ionization of the ZnS(Ag). This detector configuration has the potential to accomplish the CANDOR performance requirements formore » efficiency of 90% for 5 A (3.35 meV) neutrons with high gamma rejection (10{sup 7}) along with compact design, affordable cost and materials availability. However this novel design includes challenges for precise neutron detection. The recognizing of the neutron signature versus the noise event produce by gamma event cannot be easy overcome by pulse height discrimination obstacle as can be achieved with {sup 3}He gas tube. Furthermore the selection of silicon photomultipliers (SiPM) as the light sensor maintains the obstacle of dark noise that does not exist when a photomultiplier tube is coupled to the scintillator. A proper selection of SiPM should focus on increasing the output signal and reducing the dark noise in order to optimize the detection sensitivity and to provide a clean signal pulse shape discrimination. The main parameters for evaluation are: - Quantum Efficiency (QE) - matching the SiPM peak QE with the peak transmission wavelength emission of the WLS. - Recovery time - a short recovery time is preferred to minimize the pulse width beyond the intrinsic decay time of the scintillator crystal (improves the gamma rejection based output pulse shape (time)). - Diode dimensions -The dark noise is proportional to the diode active area while the signal is provided by the WLS fibers; therefore the diode area should ideally be only minimally larger than fiber bundle area. - Low dark noise - it is desirable to minimize the dark noise during the pulse integration period so as to minimize the background for pulse shape discrimination. - Photon Detection Efficiency - it is desirable to increase the SiPM PDE in order to enhance light collection. This will increase the likelihood of detecting neutron events with lower light production and will present a cleaner raw signal for pulse shape discrimination. We will present the SiPM optimization process and studies of dark noise and gamma and neutron sensitivity as a function of bias voltage and operating temperature that have enabled us to optimize the detector sensitivity and gamma rejection. The gamma rejection performance goal requires to overcome the challenge of discriminating between the light signature accepted by neutron event to the one received by the noise. In addition there is a huge variation between the number of light photons that reaching the WLS fibers for different neutron events caused by the heavy ions energy losses prior to ionizing the ZnS(Ag) and the high light attenuation of the scintillation mixture. This variation in the light signal along with the long decay time of the ZnS(Ag) (tens of microseconds) can cause double counting of the same neutron event in the case of high light output signature or preventing the detection of low sequential light output signature neutron event. We will presents the algorithm developed for {sup 6}LiF:ZnS(Ag) sensor readout and the results achieved by an off-line analysis by Matlab software code that successfully achieved both the high gamma rejection with a sensitive and accurate neutron event detection. (authors)« less

Clinical utility of new bleeding criteria: a prospective study of evaluation for the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium definition of bleeding in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Choi, Jae-Hyuk; Seo, Jeong-Min; Lee, Dong Hyun; Park, Kyungil; Kim, Young-Dae

2015-04-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of the new bleeding criteria, proposed by the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC), compared with the old criteria for determining the action of physicians in contact with bleeding events, after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The BARC criteria were independently associated with an increased risk of 1-year mortality after PCI, and provided a predictive value, in regard to 1-year mortality. The standardized bleeding definitions will be expected to help the physician to correctly analyze the bleeding events, to select an optimal treatment, and to objectively compare the results of multiple trials and registries. All the patients undergoing PCI from June to September 2012 were prospectively enrolled. Patients who experienced a bleeding event were further classified, based on three different bleeding severity criteria: BARC, Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), and Global Use of Strategies To Open coronary arteries (GUSTO). The primary outcome was the occurrence of bleeding events requiring interruption of antiplatelet therapy (IAT) by physicians. A total of 376 consecutive patients were included in this study. Total bleeding events occurred in 46 patients (12.2%). BARC type ≥2 bleeding occurred in 30 patients (8.0%); however, TIMI major or minor bleeding, and GUSTO moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 6 (1.6%) and 11 patients (2.9%), respectively. Of the 46 patients, 28 (60.9% of patients) required IAT. On receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, bleeding defined BARC type ≥2 effectively predicted IAT, with a sensitivity of 89.3%, and a specificity of 98.5% (p<0.001), compared with TIMI (sensitivity, 21.4%; specificity, 100%; p<0.001), and GUSTO (sensitivity, 39.3%; specificity, 100%; p<0.001). Compared with TIMI and GUSTO, the BARC definition may be a more useful tool for the detection of bleeding with clinical relevance, for patients undergoing PCI. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Availability of highly sensitive troponin assays and acute coronary syndrome care: insights from the SNAPSHOT registry.

PubMed

Cullen, Louise; French, John K; Briffa, Tom G; Redfern, Julie; Hammett, Christopher J K; Brieger, David B; Parsonage, William A; Lefkovits, Jeffrey; Ellis, Chris; Astley, Carolyn; Howell, Tegwen Eleanor; Elliott, John M; Chew, Derek P B

2015-01-19

To examine differences in care and inhospital course of patients with possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Australia and New Zealand based on whether a highly sensitive (hs) troponin assay was used at the hospital to which they presented. A snapshot study of consecutive patients presenting to hospitals in Australia and New Zealand from 14 to 27 May 2012 with possible ACS. Rates of major adverse cardiac events (inhospital death, new or recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiac arrest or worsening heart failure); association between assay type and outcome (via propensity score matching and a generalised estimating equation [GEE]; averages of the predicted outcomes among patients who were treated with and without the availability of an hs assay (via inverse probability-weighting [IPW] with regression-adjusted estimators). 4371 patients with possible ACS were admitted to 283 hospitals. Over half of the hospitals (156 [55%]) reported using the hs assay and most patients (2624 [60%]) had hs tests (P = 0.004). Use of the hs assay was independent of hospital coronary revascularisation capability. Patients tested with the hs assay had more non-invasive investigations (exercise tests, stress echocardiography, stress nuclear scans, and computed tomography coronary angiography) than those tested with the sensitive assay. However, there were no differences between the groups in rates of angiography or revascularisation. All adjusted analyses showed a consistently lower rate of inhospital events, including recurrent heart failure in patients for whom the hs assay was used (GEE odds ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.60-0.94; P = 0.014); IPW analysis showed a 2.3% absolute reduction in these events with the use of the hs assay (P = 0.018). Use of hs troponin testing of patients hospitalised with possible ACS was associated with an increased rate of non-invasive cardiac investigations and fewer inhospital adverse events.

Vulnerability of global food production to extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Yeni, F; Alpas, H

2017-06-01

It is known that the frequency, intensity or duration of the extreme climatic events have been changing substantially. The ultimate goal of this study was to identify current vulnerabilities of global primary food production against extreme climatic events, and to discuss potential entry points for adaptation planning by means of an explorative vulnerability analysis. Outcomes of this analysis were demonstrated as a composite index where 118 country performances in maintaining safety of food production were compared and ranked against climate change. In order to better interpret the results, cluster analysis technique was used as a tool to group the countries based on their vulnerability index (VI) scores. Results suggested that one sixth of the countries analyzed were subject to high level of exposure (0.45-1), one third to high to very high level of sensitivity (0.41-1) and low to moderate level of adaptive capacity (0-0.59). Proper adaptation strategies for reducing the microbial and chemical contamination of food products, soil and waters on the field were proposed. Finally, availability of data on food safety management systems and occurrence of foodborne outbreaks with global coverage were proposed as key factors for improving the robustness of future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pulse Rate and Transit Time Analysis to Predict Hypotension Events After Spinal Anesthesia During Programmed Cesarean Labor.

PubMed

Bolea, Juan; Lázaro, Jesús; Gil, Eduardo; Rovira, Eva; Remartínez, José M; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Navarro, Augusto; Bailón, Raquel

2017-09-01

Prophylactic treatment has been proved to reduce hypotension incidence after spinal anesthesia during cesarean labor. However, the use of pharmacological prophylaxis could carry out undesirable side-effects on mother and fetus. Thus, the prediction of hypotension becomes an important challenge. Hypotension events are hypothesized to be related to a malfunctioning of autonomic nervous system (ANS) regulation of blood pressure. In this work, ANS responses to positional changes of 51 pregnant women programmed for a cesarean labor were explored for hypotension prediction. Lateral and supine decubitus, and sitting position were considered while electrocardiographic and pulse photoplethysmographic signals were recorded. Features based on heart rate variability, pulse rate variability (PRV) and pulse transit time (PTT) analysis were used in a logistic regression classifier. The results showed that PRV irregularity changes, assessed by approximate entropy, from supine to lateral decubitus, and standard deviation of PTT in supine decubitus were found as the combination of features that achieved the best classification results sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 70% and accuracy of 72%, being normotensive the positive class. Peripheral regulation and blood pressure changes, measured by PRV and PTT analysis, could help to predict hypotension events reducing prophylactic side-effects in the low-risk population.

A Search for WIMP Dark Matter Using an Optimized Chi-square Technique on the Final Data from the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search Experiment (CDMS II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manungu Kiveni, Joseph

2012-12-01

This dissertation describes the results of a WIMP search using CDMS II data sets accumulated at the Soudan Underground Laboratory in Minnesota. Results from the original analysis of these data were published in 2009; two events were observed in the signal region with an expected leakage of 0.9 events. Further investigation revealed an issue with the ionization-pulse reconstruction algorithm leading to a software upgrade and a subsequent reanalysis of the data. As part of the reanalysis, I performed an advanced discrimination technique to better distinguish (potential) signal events from backgrounds using a 5-dimensional chi-square method. This dataanalysis technique combines themore » event information recorded for each WIMP-search event to derive a backgrounddiscrimination parameter capable of reducing the expected background to less than one event, while maintaining high efficiency for signal events. Furthermore, optimizing the cut positions of this 5-dimensional chi-square parameter for the 14 viable germanium detectors yields an improved expected sensitivity to WIMP interactions relative to previous CDMS results. This dissertation describes my improved (and optimized) discrimination technique and the results obtained from a blind application to the reanalyzed CDMS II WIMP-search data.« less

Analysis of TPA Pulsed-Laser-Induced Single-Event Latchup Sensitive-Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Peng; Sternberg, Andrew L.; Kozub, John A.

Two-photon absorption (TPA) testing is employed to analyze the laser-induced latchup sensitive-volume (SV) of a specially designed test structure. This method takes into account the existence of an onset region in which the probability of triggering latchup transitions from zero to one as the laser pulse energy increases. This variability is attributed to pulse-to-pulse variability, uncertainty in measurement of the pulse energy, and variation in local carrier density and temperature. For each spatial position, the latchup probability associated with a given energy is calculated from multiple pulses. The latchup probability data are well-described by a Weibull distribution. The results showmore » that the area between p-n-p-n cell structures is more sensitive than the p+ and n+ source areas, and locations far from the well contacts are more sensitive than those near the contact region. The transition from low probability of latchup to high probability is more abrupt near the source contacts than it is for the surrounding areas.« less

Analysis of TPA Pulsed-Laser-Induced Single-Event Latchup Sensitive-Area

DOE PAGES

Wang, Peng; Sternberg, Andrew L.; Kozub, John A.; ...

2017-12-07

Two-photon absorption (TPA) testing is employed to analyze the laser-induced latchup sensitive-volume (SV) of a specially designed test structure. This method takes into account the existence of an onset region in which the probability of triggering latchup transitions from zero to one as the laser pulse energy increases. This variability is attributed to pulse-to-pulse variability, uncertainty in measurement of the pulse energy, and variation in local carrier density and temperature. For each spatial position, the latchup probability associated with a given energy is calculated from multiple pulses. The latchup probability data are well-described by a Weibull distribution. The results showmore » that the area between p-n-p-n cell structures is more sensitive than the p+ and n+ source areas, and locations far from the well contacts are more sensitive than those near the contact region. The transition from low probability of latchup to high probability is more abrupt near the source contacts than it is for the surrounding areas.« less

Co-ordination of early and late ripening events in apples is regulated through differential sensitivities to ethylene

PubMed Central

Johnston, Jason W.; Gunaseelan, Kularajathaven; Pidakala, Paul; Wang, Mindy; Schaffer, Robert J.

2009-01-01

In this study, it is shown that anti-sense suppression of Malus domestica 1-AMINO-CYCLOPROPANE-CARBOXYLASE OXIDASE (MdACO1) resulted in fruit with an ethylene production sufficiently low to be able to assess ripening in the absence of ethylene. Exposure of these fruit to different concentrations of exogenous ethylene showed that flesh softening, volatile biosynthesis, and starch degradation, had differing ethylene sensitivity and dependency. Early ripening events such as the conversion of starch to sugars showed a low dependency for ethylene, but a high sensitivity to low concentrations of ethylene (0.01 μl l−1). By contrast, later ripening events such as flesh softening and ester volatile production showed a high dependency for ethylene but were less sensitive to low concentrations (needing 0.1 μl l−1 for a response). A sustained exposure to ethylene was required to maintain ripening, indicating that the role of ethylene may go beyond that of ripening initiation. These results suggest a conceptual model for the control of individual ripening characters in apple, based on both ethylene dependency and sensitivity. PMID:19429839

Combining microseismic and geomechanical observations to interpret storage integrity at the In Salah CCS site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goertz-Allmann, Bettina P.; Kühn, Daniela; Oye, Volker; Bohloli, Bahman; Aker, Eyvind

2014-07-01

We present results from microseismic monitoring and geomechanical analysis obtained at the industrial-scale CO2 sequestration site at the In Salah gas development project in Algeria. More than 5000 microseismic events have been detected at a pilot monitoring well using a master event cross-correlation method. The microseismic activity occurs in four distinct clusters and thereof three clearly correlate with injection rates and wellhead pressures. These event clusters are consistent with a location within the reservoir interval. However, due to insufficient network geometry there are large uncertainties on event location. We estimate a fracture pressure of 155 bar (at the wellhead) from the comparison of injection pressure and injection rate and conclude that reservoir fracture pressure of the injection horizon has most likely been exceeded occasionally, accompanied by increased microseismic activity. Our analysis of 3-D ray tracing for direct and converted phases suggests that one of the event clusters is located at a shallower depth than the reservoir injection interval. However, this event cluster is most likely unrelated to changes in the injection activity at a single well, as the event times do not correlate with the wellhead pressures. Furthermore, this event cluster shows b-values close to one, indicating re-activated natural or tectonic seismicity on pre-existing weakness zones rather than injection induced seismicity. Analysis of event azimuths and significant shear wave splitting of up to 5 per cent provide further valuable insight into fluid migration and fracture orientation at the reservoir level. Although only one geophone was available during the critical injection period, the microseismic monitoring of CO2 injection at In Salah is capable of addressing some of the most relevant questions about fluid migration and reservoir integrity. An improved monitoring array with larger aperture and higher sensitivity is highly recommended, as it could greatly enhance the value of this technique. As such, real-time microseismic monitoring can be used to guide the injection pressure below fracture pressure, thus providing a tool to mitigate the risk of inducing felt seismicity and compromising seal integrity.

Detection of Sleep Disordered Breathing and Its Central/Obstructive Character Using Nasal Cannula and Finger Pulse Oximeter

PubMed Central

Sommermeyer, Dirk; Zou, Ding; Grote, Ludger; Hedner, Jan

2012-01-01

Study Objective: To assess the accuracy of novel algorithms using an oximeter-based finger plethysmographic signal in combination with a nasal cannula for the detection and differentiation of central and obstructive apneas. The validity of single pulse oximetry to detect respiratory disturbance events was also studied. Methods: Patients recruited from four sleep laboratories underwent an ambulatory overnight cardiorespiratory polygraphy recording. The nasal flow and photoplethysmographic signals of the recording were analyzed by automated algorithms. The apnea hypopnea index (AHIauto) was calculated using both signals, and a respiratory disturbance index (RDIauto) was calculated from photoplethysmography alone. Apnea events were classified into obstructive and central types using the oximeter derived pulse wave signal and compared with manual scoring. Results: Sixty-six subjects (42 males, age 54 ± 14 yrs, body mass index 28.5 ± 5.9 kg/m2) were included in the analysis. AHImanual (19.4 ± 18.5 events/h) correlated highly significantly with AHIauto (19.9 ± 16.5 events/h) and RDIauto (20.4 ± 17.2 events/h); the correlation coefficients were r = 0.94 and 0.95, respectively (p < 0.001) with a mean difference of −0.5 ± 6.6 and −1.0 ± 6.1 events/h. The automatic analysis of AHIauto and RDIauto detected sleep apnea (cutoff AHImanual ≥ 15 events/h) with a sensitivity/specificity of 0.90/0.97 and 0.86/0.94, respectively. The automated obstructive/central apnea indices correlated closely with manually scoring (r = 0.87 and 0.95, p < 0.001) with mean difference of −4.3 ± 7.9 and 0.3 ± 1.5 events/h, respectively. Conclusions: Automatic analysis based on routine pulse oximetry alone may be used to detect sleep disordered breathing with accuracy. In addition, the combination of photoplethysmographic signals with a nasal flow signal provides an accurate distinction between obstructive and central apneic events during sleep. Citation: Sommermeyer D; Zou D; Grote L; Hedner J. Detection of sleep disordered breathing and its central/obstructive character using nasal cannula and finger pulse oximeter. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(5):527-533. PMID:23066364

Performance of the 2-hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol Within the American College of Radiology Imaging Network PA 4005 Cohort

PubMed Central

Mahler, Simon A.; Miller, Chadwick D.; Litt, Harold I.; Gatsonis, Constantine A.; Snyder, Bradley S.; Hollander, Judd E.

2015-01-01

Objectives The 2-hour accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADAPT) is a decision rule designed to identify emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain for early discharge. Previous studies in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated high sensitivity (97.9% to 99.7%) for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 30 days. The objective of this study was to determine the validity of ADAPT for risk stratification in a cohort of U.S. ED patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods A secondary analysis of participants enrolled in the American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) PA 4005 trial was conducted. This trial enrolled 1,369 patients at least 30 years old with symptoms suggestive of ACS. All data elements were collected prospectively at the time of enrollment. Each patient was classified as low risk or at risk by ADAPT. Early discharge rate and sensitivity for MACE, defined as cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), or coronary revascularization at 30 days, were calculated. Results Of 1,140 patients with complete biomarker data, MACE occurred in 31 patients (2.7%). Among 551 of the 1,140 (48.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 45.4% to 51.3%), ADAPT identified for early discharge; five of the 551 (0.9%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.1%) had MACE at 30 days. ADAPT was 83.9% (95% CI = 66.3% to 94.5%) sensitive, identifying 26 of 31 patients with MACE. Of the five patients identified for early discharge by ADAPT with MACE, there were no deaths, one patient with MI, and five with revascularizations. Conclusions In this first North American application of the ADAPT strategy, sensitivity for MACE within 30 days was 83.9%. One missed adverse event was a MI, with the remainder representing coronary revascularizations. The effect of missing revascularization events needs further investigation. PMID:25810343

Characteristics of a ceramic-substrate x-ray diode and its application to computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Manabu; Sato, Eiichi; Kodama, Hajime; Hagiwara, Osahiko; Matsukiyo, Hiroshi; Osawa, Akihiro; Enomoto, Toshiyuki; Kusachi, Shinya; Sato, Shigehiro; Ogawa, Akira

2013-09-01

X-ray photon counting was performed using a silicon X-ray diode (Si-XD) at a tube current of 2.0 mA and tube voltages ranging from 50 to 70 kV. The Si-XD is a high-sensitivity Si photodiode selected for detecting X-ray photons, and Xray photons are directly detected using the Si-XD without a scintillator. Photocurrent from the diode is amplified using charge-sensitive and shaping amplifiers. To investigate the X-ray-electric conversion, we performed the event-pulseheight (EPH) analysis using a multichannel analyzer. Photon-counting computed tomography (PC-CT) is accomplished by repeated linear scans and rotations of an object, and projection curves of the object are obtained by the linear scan. The exposure time for obtaining a tomogram was 10 min at a scan step of 0.5 mm and a rotation step of 1.0°. In PC-CT at a tube voltage of 70 kV, the image contrast of iodine media fell with increasing lower-level voltage of the event pulse using a comparator.

Search for gravitational-wave bursts in the first year of the fifth LIGO science run

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Armandula, H.; Armor, P.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Behnke, B.; Benacquista, M.; Betzwieser, J.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Biswas, R.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogue, L.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brummit, A.; Brunet, G.; Bullington, A.; Buonanno, A.; Burmeister, O.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Camp, J. B.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Cardenas, L.; Caride, S.; Castaldi, G.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cepeda, C.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chatterji, S.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Christensen, N.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cokelaer, T.; Colacino, C. N.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R. C.; Cornish, N.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Danilishin, S. L.; Danzmann, K.; Daudert, B.; Davies, G.; Daw, E. J.; Debra, D.; Degallaix, J.; Dergachev, V.; Desai, S.; Desalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M.; di Credico, A.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Drever, R. W. P.; Dueck, J.; Duke, I.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, J. G.; Echols, C.; Edgar, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Espinoza, E.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fairhurst, S.; Faltas, Y.; Fan, Y.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Finn, L. S.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Fotopoulos, N.; Franzen, A.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fyffe, M.; Galdi, V.; Garofoli, J. A.; Gholami, I.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Goda, K.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Gray, M.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grimaldi, F.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guenther, M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G. D.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Hoyland, D.; Hughey, B.; Huttner, S. H.; Ingram, D. R.; Isogai, T.; Ito, M.; Ivanov, A.; Johnson, B.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Kasprzyk, D.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, R.; Khazanov, E.; King, P.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kozak, D.; Krishnan, B.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Lazzarini, A.; Lei, H.; Lei, M.; Leindecker, N.; Leonor, I.; Li, C.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Longo, M.; Lormand, M.; Lu, P.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Machenschalk, B.; Macinnis, M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Markowitz, J.; Maros, E.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McHugh, M.; McIntyre, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; McKenzie, K.; Mehmet, M.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miller, J.; Minelli, J.; Mino, Y.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Miyakawa, O.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moreno, G.; Morioka, T.; Mors, K.; Mossavi, K.; Mowlowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Muhammad, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukhopadhyay, H.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Myers, E.; Myers, J.; Nash, T.; Nelson, J.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Numata, K.; O'Dell, J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ochsner, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Papa, M. A.; Parameshwaraiah, V.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Penn, S.; Perraca, A.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Postiglione, F.; Principe, M.; Prix, R.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raics, Z.; Rainer, N.; Rakhmanov, M.; Raymond, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Rehbein, H.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Rivera, B.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Roddy, S.; Röver, C.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romie, J. H.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Russell, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Sancho de La Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Saraf, S.; Sarin, P.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Savov, P.; Scanlan, M.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Sears, B.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sergeev, A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Sinha, S.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Stein, A.; Stein, L. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, K.-X.; Sung, M.; Sutton, P. J.; Szokoly, G. P.; Talukder, D.; Tang, L.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thacker, J.; Thorne, K. A.; Thüring, A.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Ugolini, D.; Ulmen, J.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Broeck, C.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.; Veltkamp, C.; Villar, A.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Ward, R. L.; Weidner, A.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, H. R.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Wilmut, I.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Wu, W.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yan, Z.; Yoshida, S.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zur Mühlen, H.; Zweizig, J.

2009-11-01

We present the results obtained from an all-sky search for gravitational-wave (GW) bursts in the 64-2000 Hz frequency range in data collected by the LIGO detectors during the first year (November 2005—November 2006) of their fifth science run. The total analyzed live time was 268.6 days. Multiple hierarchical data analysis methods were invoked in this search. The overall sensitivity expressed in terms of the root-sum-square (rss) strain amplitude hrss for gravitational-wave bursts with various morphologies was in the range of 6×10-22Hz-1/2 to a few×10-21Hz-1/2. No GW signals were observed and a frequentist upper limit of 3.75 events per year on the rate of strong GW bursts was placed at the 90% confidence level. As in our previous searches, we also combined this rate limit with the detection efficiency for selected waveform morphologies to obtain event rate versus strength exclusion curves. In sensitivity, these exclusion curves are the most stringent to date.

Life Cycle Assessment to support the quantification of the environmental impacts of an event

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toniolo, Sara; Mazzi, Anna; Fedele, Andrea

In recent years, several tools have been used to define and quantify the environmental impacts associated with an event; however, a lack of uniform approaches for conducting environmental evaluations has been revealed. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether the Life Cycle Assessment methodology, which is rarely applied to an event, can be an appropriate tool for calculating the environmental impacts associated with the assembly, disassembly, and use phase of an event analysing in particular the components and the displays used to establish the exhibits. The aim is also to include the issues reported by ISO 20121:2012 involvingmore » the interested parties that can be monitored but also affected by the event owner, namely the event organiser, the workforce and the supply chain. A small event held in Northern Italy was selected as the subject of the research. The results obtained show that the main contributors are energy consumption for lighting and heating and the use of aluminium materials, such as bars for supporting the spotlights, carpet and the electronic equipment. A sensitivity analysis for estimating the effects of the impact assessment method chosen has also been conducted and an uncertainty analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo technique. This study highlighted the importance of the energy consumed by heating and lighting on the environmental implications, and indicated that the preparation and assembly should always be considered when quantifying the environmental profile of an event. - Highlights: • LCA methodology, developed for products and services, is applied to an event. • A small event held in Northern Italy is analysed. • The main contributors are energy consumption and the use of aluminium and carpet. • Exhibition site preparation can have important environmental implications. • This study demonstrates the importance of the assembly, disassembly and use phase.« less

Statin Intake Is Associated With Decreased Insulin Sensitivity During Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Sato, Hiroaki; Carvalho, George; Sato, Tamaki; Hatzakorzian, Roupen; Lattermann, Ralph; Codere-Maruyama, Takumi; Matsukawa, Takashi; Schricker, Thomas

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE Surgical trauma impairs intraoperative insulin sensitivity and is associated with postoperative adverse events. Recently, preprocedural statin therapy is recommended for patients with coronary artery disease. However, statin therapy is reported to increase insulin resistance and the risk of new-onset diabetes. Thus, we investigated the association between preoperative statin therapy and intraoperative insulin sensitivity in nondiabetic, dyslipidemic patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In this prospective, nonrandomized trial, patients taking lipophilic statins were assigned to the statin group and hypercholesterolemic patients not receiving any statins were allocated to the control group. Insulin sensitivity was assessed by the hyperinsulinemic-normoglycemic clamp technique during surgery. The mean, SD of blood glucose, and the coefficient of variation (CV) after surgery were calculated for each patient. The association between statin use and intraoperative insulin sensitivity was tested by multiple regression analysis. RESULTS We studied 120 patients. In both groups, insulin sensitivity gradually decreased during surgery with values being on average ∼20% lower in the statin than in the control group. In the statin group, the mean blood glucose in the intensive care unit was higher than in the control group (153 ± 20 vs. 140 ± 20 mg/dL; P < 0.001). The oscillation of blood glucose was larger in the statin group (SD, P < 0.001; CV, P = 0.001). Multiple regression analysis showed that statin use was independently associated with intraoperative insulin sensitivity (β = −0.16; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Preoperative use of lipophilic statins is associated with increased insulin resistance during cardiac surgery in nondiabetic, dyslipidemic patients. PMID:22829524

Climate change and children.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A

2007-04-01

Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.

Differential sensitivity of melanoma cell lines with BRAFV600E mutation to the specific Raf inhibitor PLX4032

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Blocking oncogenic signaling induced by the BRAFV600E mutation is a promising approach for melanoma treatment. We tested the anti-tumor effects of a specific inhibitor of Raf protein kinases, PLX4032/RG7204, in melanoma cell lines. PLX4032 decreased signaling through the MAPK pathway only in cell lines with the BRAFV600E mutation. Seven out of 10 BRAFV600E mutant cell lines displayed sensitivity based on cell viability assays and three were resistant at concentrations up to 10 μM. Among the sensitive cell lines, four were highly sensitive with IC50 values below 1 μM, and three were moderately sensitive with IC50 values between 1 and 10 μM. There was evidence of MAPK pathway inhibition and cell cycle arrest in both sensitive and resistant cell lines. Genomic analysis by sequencing, genotyping of close to 400 oncogeninc mutations by mass spectrometry, and SNP arrays demonstrated no major differences in BRAF locus amplification or in other oncogenic events between sensitive and resistant cell lines. However, metabolic tracer uptake studies demonstrated that sensitive cell lines had a more profound inhibition of FDG uptake upon exposure to PLX4032 than resistant cell lines. In conclusion, BRAFV600E mutant melanoma cell lines displayed a range of sensitivities to PLX4032 and metabolic imaging using PET probes can be used to assess sensitivity. PMID:20406486

Heavy Ion Irradiation Fluence Dependence for Single-Event Upsets in a NAND Flash Memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dakai; Wilcox, Edward; Ladbury, Raymond L.; Kim, Hak; Phan, Anthony; Seidleck, Christina; Label, Kenneth

2016-01-01

We investigated the single-event effect (SEE) susceptibility of the Micron 16 nm NAND flash, and found that the single-event upset (SEU) cross section varied inversely with cumulative fluence. We attribute the effect to the variable upset sensitivities of the memory cells. Furthermore, the effect impacts only single cell upsets in general. The rate of multiple-bit upsets remained relatively constant with fluence. The current test standards and procedures assume that SEU follow a Poisson process and do not take into account the variability in the error rate with fluence. Therefore, traditional SEE testing techniques may underestimate the on-orbit event rate for a device with variable upset sensitivity.

Sequential protein unfolding through a carbon nanotube pore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhonghe; Zhang, Shuang; Weber, Jeffrey K.; Luan, Binquan; Zhou, Ruhong; Li, Jingyuan

2016-06-01

An assortment of biological processes, like protein degradation and the transport of proteins across membranes, depend on protein unfolding events mediated by nanopore interfaces. In this work, we exploit fully atomistic simulations of an artificial, CNT-based nanopore to investigate the nature of ubiquitin unfolding. With one end of the protein subjected to an external force, we observe non-canonical unfolding behaviour as ubiquitin is pulled through the pore opening. Secondary structural elements are sequentially detached from the protein and threaded into the nanotube, interestingly, the remaining part maintains native-like characteristics. The constraints of the nanopore interface thus facilitate the formation of stable ``unfoldon'' motifs above the nanotube aperture that can exist in the absence of specific native contacts with the other secondary structure. Destruction of these unfoldons gives rise to distinct force peaks in our simulations, providing us with a sensitive probe for studying the kinetics of serial unfolding events. Our detailed analysis of nanopore-mediated protein unfolding events not only provides insight into how related processes might proceed in the cell, but also serves to deepen our understanding of structural arrangements which form the basis for protein conformational stability.An assortment of biological processes, like protein degradation and the transport of proteins across membranes, depend on protein unfolding events mediated by nanopore interfaces. In this work, we exploit fully atomistic simulations of an artificial, CNT-based nanopore to investigate the nature of ubiquitin unfolding. With one end of the protein subjected to an external force, we observe non-canonical unfolding behaviour as ubiquitin is pulled through the pore opening. Secondary structural elements are sequentially detached from the protein and threaded into the nanotube, interestingly, the remaining part maintains native-like characteristics. The constraints of the nanopore interface thus facilitate the formation of stable ``unfoldon'' motifs above the nanotube aperture that can exist in the absence of specific native contacts with the other secondary structure. Destruction of these unfoldons gives rise to distinct force peaks in our simulations, providing us with a sensitive probe for studying the kinetics of serial unfolding events. Our detailed analysis of nanopore-mediated protein unfolding events not only provides insight into how related processes might proceed in the cell, but also serves to deepen our understanding of structural arrangements which form the basis for protein conformational stability. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr00410e

Spatio-temporal optimization of agricultural practices to achieve a sustainable development at basin level; framework of a case study in Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uribe, Natalia; corzo, Gerald; Solomatine, Dimitri

2016-04-01

The flood events present during the last years in different basins of the Colombian territory have raised questions on the sensitivity of the regions and if this regions have common features. From previous studies it seems important features in the sensitivity of the flood process were: land cover change, precipitation anomalies and these related to impacts of agriculture management and water management deficiencies, among others. A significant government investment in the outreach activities for adopting and promoting the Colombia National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) is being carried out in different sectors and regions, having as a priority the agriculture sector. However, more information is still needed in the local environment in order to assess were the regions have this sensitivity. Also the continuous change in one region with seasonal agricultural practices have been pointed out as a critical information for optimal sustainable development. This combined spatio-temporal dynamics of crops cycle in relation to climate change (or variations) has an important impact on flooding events at basin areas. This research will develop on the assessment and optimization of the aggregated impact of flood events due to determinate the spatio-temporal dynamic of changes in agricultural management practices. A number of common best agricultural practices have been identified to explore their effect in a spatial hydrological model that will evaluate overall changes. The optimization process consists on the evaluation of best performance in the agricultural production, without having to change crops activities or move to other regions. To achieve this objectives a deep analysis of different models combined with current and future climate scenarios have been planned. An algorithm have been formulated to cover the parametric updates such that the optimal temporal identification will be evaluated in different region on the case study area. Different hydroinformatics techniques for optimization and uncertainty analysis are included in a framework that will solve partially the computational load found in the pre-runs of the case study. The work will focus on the region Fuquene basin in Colombia but this will not limit the scope of this study to have general methodological applications to other areas. Key words Modelling, WFlow_sbm, agriculture practices, climate change, optimization, flooding, spatial and temporal analysis

Cost–Utility of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Based Treatment Compared With Thiazide Diuretic-Based Treatment for Hypertension in Elderly Australians Considering Diabetes as Comorbidity

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Enayet K.; Ademi, Zanfina; Moss, John R.; Wing, Lindon M.H.; Reid, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Abstract The objective of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)-based treatment compared with thiazide diuretic-based treatment for hypertension in elderly Australians considering diabetes as an outcome along with cardiovascular outcomes from the Australian government's perspective. We used a cost–utility analysis to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Data on cardiovascular events and new onset of diabetes were used from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study, a randomized clinical trial comparing diuretic-based (hydrochlorothiazide) versus ACEI-based (enalapril) treatment in 6083 elderly (age ≥65 years) hypertensive patients over a median 4.1-year period. For this economic analysis, the total study population was stratified into 2 groups. Group A was restricted to participants diabetes free at baseline (n = 5642); group B was restricted to participants with preexisting diabetes mellitus (type 1 or type 2) at baseline (n = 441). Data on utility scores for different events were used from available published literatures; whereas, treatment and adverse event management costs were calculated from direct health care costs available from Australian government reimbursement data. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5% per annum. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty around utilities and cost data. After a treatment period of 5 years, for group A, the ICER was Australian dollars (AUD) 27,698 (€ 18,004; AUD 1–€ 0.65) per QALY gained comparing ACEI-based treatment with diuretic-based treatment (sensitive to the utility value for new-onset diabetes). In group B, ACEI-based treatment was a dominant strategy (both more effective and cost-saving). On probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the ICERs per QALY gained were always below AUD 50,000 for group B; whereas for group A, the probability of being below AUD 50,000 was 85%. Although the dispensed price of diuretic-based treatment of hypertension in the elderly is lower, upon considering the potential enhanced likelihood of the development of diabetes in addition to the costs of treating cardiovascular disease, ACEI-based treatment may be a more cost-effective strategy in this population. PMID:25738481

CORRECTING FOR INTERPLANETARY SCATTERING IN VELOCITY DISPERSION ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laitinen, T.; Dalla, S.; Huttunen-Heikinmaa, K.

2015-06-10

To understand the origin of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), we must study their injection time relative to other solar eruption manifestations. Traditionally the injection time is determined using the Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA) where a linear fit of the observed event onset times at 1 AU to the inverse velocities of SEPs is used to derive the injection time and path length of the first-arriving particles. VDA does not, however, take into account that the particles that produce a statistically observable onset at 1 AU have scattered in the interplanetary space. We use Monte Carlo test particle simulations of energeticmore » protons to study the effect of particle scattering on the observable SEP event onset above pre-event background, and consequently on VDA results. We find that the VDA results are sensitive to the properties of the pre-event and event particle spectra as well as SEP injection and scattering parameters. In particular, a VDA-obtained path length that is close to the nominal Parker spiral length does not imply that the VDA injection time is correct. We study the delay to the observed onset caused by scattering of the particles and derive a simple estimate for the delay time by using the rate of intensity increase at the SEP onset as a parameter. We apply the correction to a magnetically well-connected SEP event of 2000 June 10, and show it to improve both the path length and injection time estimates, while also increasing the error limits to better reflect the inherent uncertainties of VDA.« less

The mode of sensitization and its influence on allograft outcomes in highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Redfield, Robert R; Scalea, Joseph R; Zens, Tiffany J; Mandelbrot, Didier A; Leverson, Glen; Kaufman, Dixon B; Djamali, Arjang

2016-10-01

We sought to determine whether the mode of sensitization in highly sensitized patients contributed to kidney allograft survival. An analysis of the United Network for Organ Sharing dataset involving all kidney transplants between 1997 and 2014 was undertaken. Highly sensitized adult kidney transplant recipients [panel reactive antibody (PRA) ≥98%] were compared with adult, primary non-sensitized and re-transplant recipients. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to determine allograft survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to determine the association of graft loss with key predictors. Fifty-three percent of highly sensitized patients transplanted were re-transplants. Pregnancy and transfusion were the only sensitizing event in 20 and 5%, respectively. The 10-year actuarial graft survival for highly sensitized recipients was 43.9% compared with 52.4% for non-sensitized patients, P < 0.001. The combination of being highly sensitized by either pregnancy or blood transfusion increased the risk of graft loss by 23% [hazard ratio (HR) 1.230, confidence interval (CI) 1.150-1.315, P < 0.001], and the combination of being highly sensitized from a prior transplant increased the risk of graft loss by 58.1% (HR 1.581, CI 1.473-1.698, P < 0.001). The mode of sensitization predicts graft survival in highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients (PRA ≥98%). Patients who are highly sensitized from re-transplants have inferior graft survival compared with patients who are highly sensitized from other modes of sensitization. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration

DOE PAGES

Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; ...

2016-05-01

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of celecoxib versus non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy for the treatment of osteoarthritis in Spain: A current perspective].

PubMed

De Lossada, A; Oteo-Álvaro, Á; Giménez, S; Oyagüez, I; Rejas, J

2016-01-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of celecoxib and non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of osteoarthritis in clinical practice in Spain. A decision-tree model using distribution, doses, treatment duration and incidence of GI and CV events observed in the pragmatic PROBE-designed «GI-Reasons» trial was used for cost-effectiveness. Effectiveness was expressed in terms of event averted and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained. QALY were calculated based on utility decrement in case of any adverse events reported in GI-Reasons trial. The National Health System perspective in Spain was applied; cost calculations included current prices of drugs plus cost of adverse events occurred. The analysis was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY gained and per event averted. One-way and probabilistic analyses were performed. Compared with non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, at current prices, celecoxib treatment had higher overall treatment costs €201 and €157, respectively. However, celecoxib was associated with a slight increase in QALY gain and significantly lower incidence of gastrointestinal events (p<.001), with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €13,286 per QALY gained and €4,471 per event averted. Sensitivity analyses were robust, and confirmed the results of the base case. Celecoxib at current price may be considered as a cost-effective alternative vs. non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the treatment of osteoarthritis in daily practice in the Spanish NHS. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The HEART score for early rule out of acute coronary syndromes in the emergency department: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Van Den Berg, Patricia; Body, Richard

2018-03-01

The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the current evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting with undifferentiated chest pain to the emergency department. Two investigators independently searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases between 2008 and May 2016 identifying eligible studies providing diagnostic accuracy data on the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events as the primary outcome. For the 12 studies meeting inclusion criteria, study characteristics and diagnostic accuracy measures were systematically extracted and study quality assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool. After quality assessment, nine studies including data from 11,217 patients were combined in the meta-analysis applying a generalised linear mixed model approach with random effects assumption (Stata 13.1). In total, 15.4% of patients (range 7.3-29.1%) developed major adverse cardiac events after a mean of 6 weeks' follow-up. Among patients categorised as 'low risk' and suitable for early discharge (HEART score 0-3), the pooled incidence of 'missed' major adverse cardiac events was 1.6%. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events were 96.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 94.0-98.2%) and 47.0% (95% CI 41.0-53.5%), respectively. Patients with a HEART score of 0-3 are at low risk of incident major adverse cardiac events. As 3.3% of patients with major adverse cardiac events are 'missed' by the HEART score, clinicians must ask whether this risk is acceptably low for clinical implementation.

The use of propensity score methods with survival or time-to-event outcomes: reporting measures of effect similar to those used in randomized experiments.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2014-03-30

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies. In medical and epidemiological studies, outcomes are frequently time-to-event in nature. Propensity-score methods are often applied incorrectly when estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. This article describes how two different propensity score methods (matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting) can be used to estimate the measures of effect that are frequently reported in randomized controlled trials: (i) marginal survival curves, which describe survival in the population if all subjects were treated or if all subjects were untreated; and (ii) marginal hazard ratios. The use of these propensity score methods allows one to replicate the measures of effect that are commonly reported in randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: both absolute and relative reductions in the probability of an event occurring can be determined. We also provide guidance on variable selection for the propensity score model, highlight methods for assessing the balance of baseline covariates between treated and untreated subjects, and describe the implementation of a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of unmeasured confounding variables on the estimated treatment effect when outcomes are time-to-event in nature. The methods in the paper are illustrated by estimating the effect of discharge statin prescribing on the risk of death in a sample of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. In this tutorial article, we describe and illustrate all the steps necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. © 2013 The authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Automatic Detection of Whole Night Snoring Events Using Non-Contact Microphone

PubMed Central

Dafna, Eliran; Tarasiuk, Ariel; Zigel, Yaniv

2013-01-01

Objective Although awareness of sleep disorders is increasing, limited information is available on whole night detection of snoring. Our study aimed to develop and validate a robust, high performance, and sensitive whole-night snore detector based on non-contact technology. Design Sounds during polysomnography (PSG) were recorded using a directional condenser microphone placed 1 m above the bed. An AdaBoost classifier was trained and validated on manually labeled snoring and non-snoring acoustic events. Patients Sixty-seven subjects (age 52.5±13.5 years, BMI 30.8±4.7 kg/m2, m/f 40/27) referred for PSG for obstructive sleep apnea diagnoses were prospectively and consecutively recruited. Twenty-five subjects were used for the design study; the validation study was blindly performed on the remaining forty-two subjects. Measurements and Results To train the proposed sound detector, >76,600 acoustic episodes collected in the design study were manually classified by three scorers into snore and non-snore episodes (e.g., bedding noise, coughing, environmental). A feature selection process was applied to select the most discriminative features extracted from time and spectral domains. The average snore/non-snore detection rate (accuracy) for the design group was 98.4% based on a ten-fold cross-validation technique. When tested on the validation group, the average detection rate was 98.2% with sensitivity of 98.0% (snore as a snore) and specificity of 98.3% (noise as noise). Conclusions Audio-based features extracted from time and spectral domains can accurately discriminate between snore and non-snore acoustic events. This audio analysis approach enables detection and analysis of snoring sounds from a full night in order to produce quantified measures for objective follow-up of patients. PMID:24391903

Automatic detection of whole night snoring events using non-contact microphone.

PubMed

Dafna, Eliran; Tarasiuk, Ariel; Zigel, Yaniv

2013-01-01

Although awareness of sleep disorders is increasing, limited information is available on whole night detection of snoring. Our study aimed to develop and validate a robust, high performance, and sensitive whole-night snore detector based on non-contact technology. Sounds during polysomnography (PSG) were recorded using a directional condenser microphone placed 1 m above the bed. An AdaBoost classifier was trained and validated on manually labeled snoring and non-snoring acoustic events. Sixty-seven subjects (age 52.5 ± 13.5 years, BMI 30.8 ± 4.7 kg/m(2), m/f 40/27) referred for PSG for obstructive sleep apnea diagnoses were prospectively and consecutively recruited. Twenty-five subjects were used for the design study; the validation study was blindly performed on the remaining forty-two subjects. To train the proposed sound detector, >76,600 acoustic episodes collected in the design study were manually classified by three scorers into snore and non-snore episodes (e.g., bedding noise, coughing, environmental). A feature selection process was applied to select the most discriminative features extracted from time and spectral domains. The average snore/non-snore detection rate (accuracy) for the design group was 98.4% based on a ten-fold cross-validation technique. When tested on the validation group, the average detection rate was 98.2% with sensitivity of 98.0% (snore as a snore) and specificity of 98.3% (noise as noise). Audio-based features extracted from time and spectral domains can accurately discriminate between snore and non-snore acoustic events. This audio analysis approach enables detection and analysis of snoring sounds from a full night in order to produce quantified measures for objective follow-up of patients.

Intussusception after monovalent rotavirus vaccine-United States, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2008-2014.

PubMed

Haber, Penina; Parashar, Umesh D; Haber, Michael; DeStefano, Frank

2015-09-11

In 2006 and 2008, two new rotavirus vaccines (RotaTeq [RV5] and Rotarix [RV1]) were introduced in the United States. US data on intussusception have been mostly related to RV5, with limited data on RV1. We assessed intussusception events following RV1 reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a US national passive surveillance system, during February 2008-December 2014. We conducted a self-controlled risk interval analysis using Poisson regression to estimate the daily reporting ratio (DRR) of intussusception after the first 2 doses of RV1 comparing average daily reports 3-6 versus 0-2 days after vaccination. We calculated the excess risk of intussusception per 100,000 vaccinations based on DRRs and background rates of intussusception. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess effects of differential reporting completeness and inaccuracy of baseline rates. VAERS received 108 confirmed insusceptible reports after RV1. A significant clustering was observed on days 3-8 after does1 (p=0.001) and days 2-7 after dose 2 (p=0.001). The DRR comparing the 3-6 day and the 0-2 day periods after RV1 dose 1 was 7.5 (95% CI=2.3, 24.6), translating to an excess risk of 1.6 (95% CI=0.3, 5.8) per 100,000 vaccinations. The DRR was elevated but not significant after dose 2 (2.4 [95% CI=0.8,7.5]). The excess risk ranged from 1.2 to 2.8 per 100,000 in sensitivity analysis. We observed a significant increased risk of intussusception 3-6 days after dose 1 of RV1. The estimated small number of intussusception cases attributable to RV1 is outweighed by the benefits of rotavirus vaccination. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

How can sensitivity analysis improve the robustness of mathematical models utilized by the re/insurance industry?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noacco, V.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.; Philp, T.

2017-12-01

Insurance companies provide insurance against a wide range of threats, such as natural catastrophes, nuclear incidents and terrorism. To quantify risk and support investment decisions, mathematical models are used, for example to set the premiums charged to clients that protect from financial loss, should deleterious events occur. While these models are essential tools for adequately assessing the risk attached to an insurer's portfolio, their development is costly and their value for decision-making may be limited by an incomplete understanding of uncertainty and sensitivity. Aside from the business need to understand risk and uncertainty, the insurance sector also faces regulation which requires them to test their models in such a way that uncertainties are appropriately captured and that plans are in place to assess the risks and their mitigation. The building and testing of models constitutes a high cost for insurance companies, and it is a time intensive activity. This study uses an established global sensitivity analysis toolbox (SAFE) to more efficiently capture the uncertainties and sensitivities embedded in models used by a leading re/insurance firm, with structured approaches to validate these models and test the impact of assumptions on the model predictions. It is hoped that this in turn will lead to better-informed and more robust business decisions.

Polarization Sensitive Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Spectroscopy of DCVJ in Doped Polymer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ujj, Laszlo

2014-05-01

Coherent Raman Microscopy is an emerging technic and method to image biological samples such as living cells by recording vibrational fingerprints of molecules with high spatial resolution. The race is on to record the entire image during the shortest time possible in order to increase the time resolution of the recorded cellular events. The electronically enhanced polarization sensitive version of Coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering is one of the method which can shorten the recording time and increase the sharpness of an image by enhancing the signal level of special molecular vibrational modes. In order to show the effectiveness of the method a model system, a highly fluorescence sample, DCVJ in a polymer matrix is investigated. Polarization sensitive resonance CARS spectra are recorded and analyzed. Vibrational signatures are extracted with model independent methods. Details of the measurements and data analysis will be presented. The author gratefully acknowledge the UWF for financial support.

WikiLeaks and Iraq Body Count: the sum of parts may not add up to the whole-a comparison of two tallies of Iraqi civilian deaths.

PubMed

Carpenter, Dustin; Fuller, Tova; Roberts, Les

2013-06-01

Introduction The number of civilians killed in Iraq following the 2003 invasion has proven difficult to measure and contentious in recent years. The release of the Wikileaks War Logs (WL) has created the potential to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the commonly-cited Iraq Body Count's (IBC's) tally, which is based on press, government, and other public sources. Hypothesis The 66,000 deaths reported in the Wikileaks War Logs are mostly the same events as those previously reported in the press and elsewhere as tallied by iraqbodycount.org. A systematic random sample of 2500 violent fatal War Log incidents was selected and evaluated to determine whether these incidents were also found in IBC's press-based listing. Each selected event was ranked on a scale of 0 (no match present) to 3 (almost certainly matched) with regard to the likelihood it was listed in the IBC database. Of the two thousand four hundred and nine War Log records, 488 (23.8%) were found to have likely matches in IBC records. Events that killed more people were far more likely to appear in both datasets, with 94.1% of events in which ≥20 people were killed being likely matches, as compared with 17.4% of singleton killings. Because of this skew towards the recording of large events in both datasets, it is estimated that 2035 (46.3%) of the 4394 deaths reported in the Wikileaks War Logs had been previously reported in IBC. Passive surveillance systems, widely seen as incomplete, may also be selective in the types of events detected in times of armed conflict. Bombings and other events during which many people are killed, and events in less violent areas, appear to be detected far more often, creating a skewed image of the mortality profile in Iraq. Members of the press and researchers should be hesitant to draw conclusions about the nature or extent of violence from passive surveillance systems of low or unknown sensitivity.

Stress Sensitivity and Stress Generation in Social Anxiety Disorder: A Temporal Process Approach

PubMed Central

Farmer, Antonina S.; Kashdan, Todd B.

2015-01-01

Dominant theoretical models of social anxiety disorder (SAD) suggest that people who suffer from function-impairing social fears are likely to react more strongly to social stressors. Researchers have examined the reactivity of people with SAD to stressful laboratory tasks, but there is little knowledge about how stress affects their daily lives. We asked 79 adults from the community, 40 diagnosed with SAD and 39 matched healthy controls, to self-monitor their social interactions, social events, and emotional experiences over two weeks using electronic diaries. These data allowed us to examine associations of social events and emotional well-being both within-day and from one day to the next. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we found all participants to report increases in negative affect and decreases in positive affect and self-esteem on days when they experienced more stressful social events. However, people with SAD displayed greater stress sensitivity, particularly in negative emotion reactions to stressful social events, compared to healthy controls. Groups also differed in how previous days’ events influenced sensitivity to current days’ events. Moreover, we found evidence of stress generation in that the SAD group reported more frequent interpersonal stress, though temporal analyses did not suggest greater likelihood of social stress on days following intense negative emotions. Our findings support the role of heightened social stress sensitivity in SAD, highlighting rigidity in reactions and occurrence of stressful experiences from one day to the next. These findings also shed light on theoretical models of emotions and self-esteem in SAD and present important clinical implications. PMID:25688437

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation in ash concentration simulations and tephra deposit daily forecasted at Mt. Etna, in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestifilippo, Michele; Scollo, Simona; Tarantola, Stefano

2015-04-01

The uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts may depend on our knowledge of the model input parameters and our capability to represent the dynamic of an incoming eruption. Forecasts help governments to reduce risks associated with volcanic eruptions and for this reason different kinds of analysis that help to understand the effect that each input parameter has on model outputs are necessary. We present an iterative approach based on the sequential combination of sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation procedure and Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis, applied to the lagrangian volcanic ash dispersal model PUFF. We modify the main input parameters as the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the plume thickness, the shape of the eruption column, the sedimentation models and the diffusion coefficient, perform thousands of simulations and analyze the results. The study is carried out on two different Etna scenarios: the sub-plinian eruption of 22 July 1998 that formed an eruption column rising 12 km above sea level and lasted some minutes and the lava fountain eruption having features similar to the 2011-2013 events that produced eruption column high up to several kilometers above sea level and lasted some hours. Sensitivity analyses and uncertainty estimation results help us to address the measurements that volcanologists should perform during volcanic crisis to reduce the model uncertainty.

The impact of escaped farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) on catch statistics in Scotland.

PubMed

Green, Darren M; Penman, David J; Migaud, Herve; Bron, James E; Taggart, John B; McAndrew, Brendan J

2012-01-01

In Scotland and elsewhere, there are concerns that escaped farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) may impact on wild salmon stocks. Potential detrimental effects could arise through disease spread, competition, or inter-breeding. We investigated whether there is evidence of a direct effect of recorded salmon escape events on wild stocks in Scotland using anglers' counts of caught salmon (classified as wild or farmed) and sea trout (Salmo trutta L.). This tests specifically whether documented escape events can be associated with reduced or elevated escapes detected in the catch over a five-year time window, after accounting for overall variation between areas and years. Alternate model frameworks were somewhat inconsistent, however no robust association was found between documented escape events and higher proportion of farm-origin salmon in anglers' catch, nor with overall catch size. A weak positive correlation was found between local escapes and subsequent sea trout catch. This is in the opposite direction to what would be expected if salmon escapes negatively affected wild fish numbers. Our approach specifically investigated documented escape events, contrasting with earlier studies examining potentially wider effects of salmon farming on wild catch size. This approach is more conservative, but alleviates some potential sources of confounding, which are always of concern in observational studies. Successful analysis of anglers' reports of escaped farmed salmon requires high data quality, particularly since reports of farmed salmon are a relatively rare event in the Scottish data. Therefore, as part of our analysis, we reviewed studies of potential sensitivity and specificity of determination of farmed origin. Specificity estimates are generally high in the literature, making an analysis of the form we have performed feasible.

The Impact of Escaped Farmed Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) on Catch Statistics in Scotland

PubMed Central

Green, Darren M.; Penman, David J.; Migaud, Herve; Bron, James E.; Taggart, John B.; McAndrew, Brendan J.

2012-01-01

In Scotland and elsewhere, there are concerns that escaped farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) may impact on wild salmon stocks. Potential detrimental effects could arise through disease spread, competition, or inter-breeding. We investigated whether there is evidence of a direct effect of recorded salmon escape events on wild stocks in Scotland using anglers' counts of caught salmon (classified as wild or farmed) and sea trout (Salmo trutta L.). This tests specifically whether documented escape events can be associated with reduced or elevated escapes detected in the catch over a five-year time window, after accounting for overall variation between areas and years. Alternate model frameworks were somewhat inconsistent, however no robust association was found between documented escape events and higher proportion of farm-origin salmon in anglers' catch, nor with overall catch size. A weak positive correlation was found between local escapes and subsequent sea trout catch. This is in the opposite direction to what would be expected if salmon escapes negatively affected wild fish numbers. Our approach specifically investigated documented escape events, contrasting with earlier studies examining potentially wider effects of salmon farming on wild catch size. This approach is more conservative, but alleviates some potential sources of confounding, which are always of concern in observational studies. Successful analysis of anglers' reports of escaped farmed salmon requires high data quality, particularly since reports of farmed salmon are a relatively rare event in the Scottish data. Therefore, as part of our analysis, we reviewed studies of potential sensitivity and specificity of determination of farmed origin. Specificity estimates are generally high in the literature, making an analysis of the form we have performed feasible. PMID:22970132

Association of troponin T, detected with highly sensitive assay, and outcomes in infective endocarditis.

PubMed

Stancoven, Amy B; Shiue, Angela B; Khera, Amit; Pinkston, Kristi; Hashim, Ibrahim A; Wang, Andrew; de Lemos, James A; Peterson, Gail E

2011-08-01

Troponin levels have been correlated with adverse outcomes in multiple disease processes, including congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sepsis, and, in a few small series, infective endocarditis. We hypothesized that a novel measurement of troponin using a highly sensitive assay would correlate with adverse outcomes when prospectively studied in patients with infective endocarditis. At a single center in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis, 42 patients met the inclusion criteria and underwent testing for cardiac troponin T (cTnT) using both a standard and a highly sensitive precommercial assay. The cTnT levels were associated with the prespecified primary composite outcome of death, central nervous system event, and cardiac abscess. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of the composite outcome and the need for cardiac surgery. A receiver operating characteristic curve was derived and used to identify the optimal cutpoint for cTnT using the highly sensitive assay. cTnT was detectable with the highly sensitive assay in 39 (93%) of 42 patients with infective endocarditis and with the standard assay in 25 (56%) of 42 (p <0.05). Of the 42 patients, 15 experienced the composite outcome, 4 died, 9 had a central nervous system event, and 5 had a cardiac abscess. With the hs-cTnT assay, the median cTnT was greater in the patients who experienced the primary outcome (0.12 vs 0.02 ng/ml, p <0.05). According to the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve of 0.74), cTnT levels of ≥0.08 ng/ml produced optimal specificity (78%) for the primary outcome. The patients with a cTnT level of ≥0.08 ng/ml were more likely to experience the primary outcome (odds ratio 7.0, 95% confidence interval 1.7 to 28.6, p <0.01) and a central nervous system event (odds ratio 9.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 24.1, p = 0.02). In conclusion, cTnT is detectable in 93% of patients with infective endocarditis using a novel highly sensitive assay, with higher levels correlating with poor clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Treatment strategies for pelvic organ prolapse: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hullfish, Kathie L; Trowbridge, Elisa R; Stukenborg, George J

2011-05-01

To compare the relative cost effectiveness of treatment decision alternatives for post-hysterectomy pelvic organ prolapse (POP). A Markov decision analysis model was used to assess and compare the relative cost effectiveness of expectant management, use of a pessary, and surgery for obtaining months of quality-adjusted life over 1 year. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine whether the results depended on specific estimates of patient utilities for pessary use, probabilities for complications and other events, and estimated costs. Only two treatment alternatives were found to be efficient choices: initial pessary use and vaginal reconstructive surgery (VRS). Pessary use (including patients that eventually transitioned to surgery) achieved 10.4 quality-adjusted months, at a cost of $10,000 per patient, while VRS obtained 11.4 quality-adjusted months, at $15,000 per patient. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that these baseline results depended on several key estimates in the model. This analysis indicates that pessary use and VRS are the most cost-effective treatment alternatives for treating post-hysterectomy vaginal prolapse. Additional research is needed to standardize POP outcomes and complications, so that healthcare providers can best utilize cost information in balancing the risks and benefits of their treatment decisions.

Characterizing Wheel-Soil Interaction Loads Using Meshfree Finite Element Methods: A Sensitivity Analysis for Design Trade Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Contreras, Michael T.; Trease, Brian P.; Bojanowski, Cezary; Kulakx, Ronald F.

2013-01-01

A wheel experiencing sinkage and slippage events poses a high risk to planetary rover missions as evidenced by the mobility challenges endured by the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project. Current wheel design practice utilizes loads derived from a series of events in the life cycle of the rover which do not include (1) failure metrics related to wheel sinkage and slippage and (2) performance trade-offs based on grouser placement/orientation. Wheel designs are rigorously tested experimentally through a variety of drive scenarios and simulated soil environments; however, a robust simulation capability is still in development due to myriad of complex interaction phenomena that contribute to wheel sinkage and slippage conditions such as soil composition, large deformation soil behavior, wheel geometry, nonlinear contact forces, terrain irregularity, etc. For the purposes of modeling wheel sinkage and slippage at an engineering scale, meshfree nite element approaches enable simulations that capture su cient detail of wheel-soil interaction while remaining computationally feasible. This study implements the JPL wheel-soil benchmark problem in the commercial code environment utilizing the large deformation modeling capability of Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) meshfree methods. The nominal, benchmark wheel-soil interaction model that produces numerically stable and physically realistic results is presented and simulations are shown for both wheel traverse and wheel sinkage cases. A sensitivity analysis developing the capability and framework for future ight applications is conducted to illustrate the importance of perturbations to critical material properties and parameters. Implementation of the proposed soil-wheel interaction simulation capability and associated sensitivity framework has the potential to reduce experimentation cost and improve the early stage wheel design proce

Medialization thyroplasty versus injection laryngoplasty: a cost minimization analysis.

PubMed

Tam, Samantha; Sun, Hongmei; Sarma, Sisira; Siu, Jennifer; Fung, Kevin; Sowerby, Leigh

2017-02-20

Medialization thyroplasty and injection laryngoplasty are widely accepted treatment options for unilateral vocal fold paralysis. Although both procedures result in similar clinical outcomes, little is known about the corresponding medical care costs. Medialization thyroplasty requires expensive operating room resources while injection laryngoplasty utilizes outpatient resources but may require repeated procedures. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to quantify the cost differences in adult patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis undergoing medialization thyroplasty versus injection laryngoplasty. Cost minimization analysis conducted using a decision tree model. A decision tree model was constructed to capture clinical scenarios for medialization thyroplasty and injection laryngoplasty. Probabilities for various events were obtained from a retrospective cohort from the London Health Sciences Centre, Canada. Costs were derived from the published literature and the London Health Science Centre. All costs were reported in 2014 Canadian dollars. Time horizon was 5 years. The study was conducted from an academic hospital perspective in Canada. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess differences in procedure-specific costs and probabilities of key events. Sixty-three patients underwent medialization thyroplasty and 41 underwent injection laryngoplasty. Cost of medialization thyroplasty was C$2499.10 per patient whereas those treated with injection laryngoplasty cost C$943.19. Results showed that cost savings with IL were C$1555.91. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested cost savings ranged from C$596 to C$3626. Treatment with injection laryngoplasty results in cost savings of C$1555.91 per patient. Our extensive sensitivity analyses suggest that switching from medialization thyroplasty to injection laryngoplasty will lead to a minimum cost savings of C$596 per patient. Considering the significant cost savings and similar effectiveness, injection laryngoplasty should be strongly considered as a preferred treatment option for patients diagnosed with unilateral vocal fold paralysis.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Biodegradable stent or balloon dilatation for benign oesophageal stricture: pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Dhar, Anjan; Close, Helen; Viswanath, Yirupaiahgari K; Rees, Colin J; Hancock, Helen C; Dwarakanath, A Deepak; Maier, Rebecca H; Wilson, Douglas; Mason, James M

2014-12-28

To undertake a randomised pilot study comparing biodegradable stents and endoscopic dilatation in patients with strictures. This British multi-site study recruited seventeen symptomatic adult patients with refractory strictures. Patients were randomised using a multicentre, blinded assessor design, comparing a biodegradable stent (BS) with endoscopic dilatation (ED). The primary endpoint was the average dysphagia score during the first 6 mo. Secondary endpoints included repeat endoscopic procedures, quality of life, and adverse events. Secondary analysis included follow-up to 12 mo. Sensitivity analyses explored alternative estimation methods for dysphagia and multiple imputation of missing values. Nonparametric tests were used. Although both groups improved, the average dysphagia scores for patients receiving stents were higher after 6 mo: BS-ED 1.17 (95%CI: 0.63-1.78) P = 0.029. The finding was robust under different estimation methods. Use of additional endoscopic procedures and quality of life (QALY) estimates were similar for BS and ED patients at 6 and 12 mo. Concomitant use of gastrointestinal prescribed medication was greater in the stent group (BS 5.1, ED 2.0 prescriptions; P < 0.001), as were related adverse events (BS 1.4, ED 0.0 events; P = 0.024). Groups were comparable at baseline and findings were statistically significant but numbers were small due to under-recruitment. The oesophageal tract has somatic sensitivity and the process of the stent dissolving, possibly unevenly, might promote discomfort or reflux. Stenting was associated with greater dysphagia, co-medication and adverse events. Rigorously conducted and adequately powered trials are needed before widespread adoption of this technology.

Vaccine adverse event text mining system for extracting features from vaccine safety reports.

PubMed

Botsis, Taxiarchis; Buttolph, Thomas; Nguyen, Michael D; Winiecki, Scott; Woo, Emily Jane; Ball, Robert

2012-01-01

To develop and evaluate a text mining system for extracting key clinical features from vaccine adverse event reporting system (VAERS) narratives to aid in the automated review of adverse event reports. Based upon clinical significance to VAERS reviewing physicians, we defined the primary (diagnosis and cause of death) and secondary features (eg, symptoms) for extraction. We built a novel vaccine adverse event text mining (VaeTM) system based on a semantic text mining strategy. The performance of VaeTM was evaluated using a total of 300 VAERS reports in three sequential evaluations of 100 reports each. Moreover, we evaluated the VaeTM contribution to case classification; an information retrieval-based approach was used for the identification of anaphylaxis cases in a set of reports and was compared with two other methods: a dedicated text classifier and an online tool. The performance metrics of VaeTM were text mining metrics: recall, precision and F-measure. We also conducted a qualitative difference analysis and calculated sensitivity and specificity for classification of anaphylaxis cases based on the above three approaches. VaeTM performed best in extracting diagnosis, second level diagnosis, drug, vaccine, and lot number features (lenient F-measure in the third evaluation: 0.897, 0.817, 0.858, 0.874, and 0.914, respectively). In terms of case classification, high sensitivity was achieved (83.1%); this was equal and better compared to the text classifier (83.1%) and the online tool (40.7%), respectively. Our VaeTM implementation of a semantic text mining strategy shows promise in providing accurate and efficient extraction of key features from VAERS narratives.

Biodegradable stent or balloon dilatation for benign oesophageal stricture: Pilot randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Dhar, Anjan; Close, Helen; Viswanath, Yirupaiahgari K; Rees, Colin J; Hancock, Helen C; Dwarakanath, A Deepak; Maier, Rebecca H; Wilson, Douglas; Mason, James M

2014-01-01

AIM: To undertake a randomised pilot study comparing biodegradable stents and endoscopic dilatation in patients with strictures. METHODS: This British multi-site study recruited seventeen symptomatic adult patients with refractory strictures. Patients were randomised using a multicentre, blinded assessor design, comparing a biodegradable stent (BS) with endoscopic dilatation (ED). The primary endpoint was the average dysphagia score during the first 6 mo. Secondary endpoints included repeat endoscopic procedures, quality of life, and adverse events. Secondary analysis included follow-up to 12 mo. Sensitivity analyses explored alternative estimation methods for dysphagia and multiple imputation of missing values. Nonparametric tests were used. RESULTS: Although both groups improved, the average dysphagia scores for patients receiving stents were higher after 6 mo: BS-ED 1.17 (95%CI: 0.63-1.78) P = 0.029. The finding was robust under different estimation methods. Use of additional endoscopic procedures and quality of life (QALY) estimates were similar for BS and ED patients at 6 and 12 mo. Concomitant use of gastrointestinal prescribed medication was greater in the stent group (BS 5.1, ED 2.0 prescriptions; P < 0.001), as were related adverse events (BS 1.4, ED 0.0 events; P = 0.024). Groups were comparable at baseline and findings were statistically significant but numbers were small due to under-recruitment. The oesophageal tract has somatic sensitivity and the process of the stent dissolving, possibly unevenly, might promote discomfort or reflux. CONCLUSION: Stenting was associated with greater dysphagia, co-medication and adverse events. Rigorously conducted and adequately powered trials are needed before widespread adoption of this technology. PMID:25561787

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less

Sensitivity towards fear of electric shock in passive threat situations.

PubMed

Ring, Patrick; Kaernbach, Christian

2015-01-01

Human judgment and decision-making (JDM) requires an assessment of different choice options. While traditional theories of choice argue that cognitive processes are the main driver to reach a decision, growing evidence highlights the importance of emotion in decision-making. Following these findings, it appears relevant to understand how individuals asses the attractiveness or riskiness of a situation in terms of emotional processes. The following study aims at a better understanding of the psychophysiological mechanisms underlying threat sensitivity by measuring skin conductance responses (SCRs) in passive threat situations. While previous studies demonstrate the role of magnitude on emotional body reactions preceding an outcome, this study focuses on probability. In order to analyze emotional body reactions preceding negative events with varying probability of occurrence, we have our participants play a two-stage card game. The first stage of the card game reveals the probability of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. The second stage applies the electric shock with the previously announced probability. For the analysis, we focus on the time interval between the first and second stage. We observe a linear relation between SCRs in anticipation of receiving an electric shock and shock probability. This finding indicates that SCRs are able to code the likelihood of negative events. We outline how this coding function of SCRs during the anticipation of negative events might add to an understanding of human JDM.

All-sky search for gravitational-wave bursts in the first joint LIGO-GEO-Virgo run

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Arun, K. G.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Bauer, Th. S.; Behnke, B.; Beker, M. G.; Belletoile, A.; Benacquista, M.; Betzwieser, J.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bigotta, S.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Boccara, C.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bouhou, B.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bullington, A.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cain, J.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Cardenas, L.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterji, S.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R. C.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Coulon, J.-P.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; de Rosa, R.; Debra, D.; Degallaix, J.; Del Prete, M.; Dergachev, V.; Desalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; di Fiore, L.; di Lieto, A.; di Paolo Emilio, M.; di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J.; Dueck, J.; Duke, I.; Dumas, J.-C.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Faltas, Y.; Fan, Y.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Galimberti, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G. D.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Hayau, J.-F.; Hayler, T.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E.; Hoyland, D.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Ingram, D. R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, R.; Khazanov, E.; Kim, H.; King, P. J.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kullman, J.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Lang, M.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lazzarini, A.; Leaci, P.; Lei, M.; Leindecker, N.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, T. G. F.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A.; Machenschalk, B.; Macinnis, M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Mak, C.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Markowitz, J.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; Mehmet, M.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Merill, L.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Miyakawa, O.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moreau, J.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Mors, K.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mowlowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Nash, T.; Nawrodt, R.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishida, E.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; Oldenburg, R.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Pardi, S.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pathak, D.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Penn, S.; Peralta, C.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Principe, M.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raics, Z.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Rehbein, H.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Röver, C.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sancho de La Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santostasi, G.; Saraf, S.; Sarin, P.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Sperandio, L.; Stein, A. J.; Stein, L. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szokoly, G. P.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Trummer, J.; Turner, L.; Ugolini, D.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; van den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; van Veggel, A. A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Wei, P.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, H. R.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Wilmut, I.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2010-05-01

We present results from an all-sky search for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO, GEO 600 and Virgo detectors between November 2006 and October 2007. The search is performed by three different analysis algorithms over the frequency band 50-6000 Hz. Data are analyzed for times with at least two of the four LIGO-Virgo detectors in coincident operation, with a total live time of 266 days. No events produced by the search algorithms survive the selection cuts. We set a frequentist upper limit on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts impinging on our network of detectors. When combined with the previous LIGO search of the data collected between November 2005 and November 2006, the upper limit on the rate of detectable gravitational-wave bursts in the 64-2048 Hz band is 2.0 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present event rate versus strength exclusion plots for several types of plausible burst waveforms. The sensitivity of the combined search is expressed in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for a variety of simulated waveforms and lies in the range 6×10-22Hz-1/2 to 2×10-20Hz-1/2. This is the first untriggered burst search to use data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors together, and the most sensitive untriggered burst search performed so far.

Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak: An Educational Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, S. J.; van der Vink, G.

2002-05-01

In April and May of 1979 an Anthrax epidemic broke out in the city of Sverdlovsk (now Ekaterinburg) in the former Soviet Union. Sixty-four people were reported to have died from the outbreak, although there is still debate concerning the actual number of victims. While Soviet officials initially attributed this outbreak to contaminated meat, the US Government maintained that the outbreak was due to a leakage from a biological weapons facility. We have created and implemented an undergraduate educational exercise based on the forensic analysis of this event. Students were provided case data of the victims, area satellite images and meteorological data. One goal of the exercise was for students to reconstruct the most probable scenario of events through valid inference based on the limited information and uncertainties associated with the data set. Another goal was to make students sensitive to issues of biological weapons and bioterrorism. The exercise was highly rated by students even before the events of September 11. There is a clear need to educate students, particularly in the sciences, to be aware of the signatures of terrorist activities. Evidence of terrorist activities is more likely to appear from unintended discoveries than from active intelligence gathering. We believe our national security can be enhanced by sensitizing those that monitor the natural environment to the signatures of terrorist activities through the types of educational exercises that we have developed.

Analysis of the QRS complex for apnea-bradycardia characterization in preterm infants

PubMed Central

Altuve, Miguel; Carrault, Guy; Cruz, Julio; Beuchée, Alain; Pladys, Patrick; Hernandez, Alfredo I.

2009-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the information content of new features derived from the electrocardiogram (ECG) for the characterization of apnea-bradycardia events in preterm infants. Automatic beat detection and segmentation methods have been adapted to the ECG signals from preterm infants, through the application of two evolutionary algorithms. ECG data acquired from 32 preterm infants with persistent apnea-bradycardia have been used for quantitative evaluation. The adaptation procedure led to an improved sensitivity and positive predictive value, and a reduced jitter for the detection of the R-wave, QRS onset, QRS offset, and iso-electric level. Additionally, time series representing the RR interval, R-wave amplitude and QRS duration, were automatically extracted for periods at rest, before, during and after apnea-bradycardia episodes. Significant variations (p<0.05) were observed for all time-series when comparing the difference between values at rest versus values just before the bradycardia event, with the difference between values at rest versus values during the bradycardia event. These results reveal changes in the R-wave amplitude and QRS duration, appearing at the onset and termination of apnea-bradycardia episodes, which could be potentially useful for the early detection and characterization of these episodes. PMID:19963984

Mapping Socio-Economic Vulnerability During Extreme Events (flash floods) in The Himalayan Region: A Case Study Of Bhagirathi Basin, Uttarakhand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisha, N.; Punia, M.

2016-12-01

Mountain stratigraphic system cannot be claimed as the extraordinarily fragile but a greater range of vulnerability to disturbance than many landscape, in the physical space leading to disturbance in social space, makes it special eco-sensitive zone with greater degree of fragility. The present study furnishes socio-economic vulnerability mapping of the Bhagirathi basin through computation of the Socio vulnerability Index (SoVI). SoVI correlates vulnerability to natural or anthropogenic disasters to socio - economic development and illustrates how developmental parameters alter equation of potential effect and recovery in event of a natural catastrophe in the study region. Use of time-series datasets from different sources, including the optical remote sensing data and the use of social and/or economic data to quantify the vulnerabilities during extreme events is attempted. From the analysis it has been found that the areas with high social vulnerability index are might prone to disaster than low index area. However, the analysis of social vulnerability not only helps to identify flood risk area but also raises the question how the key drivers trigger flood and controlled by the governments and local authorities.

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.; Gu, Guojun; Nelkin, Eric J.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Stocker, Erich; Wolff, David B.

2006-01-01

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) provides a calibration-based sequential scheme for combining multiple precipitation estimates from satellites, as well as gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees and 3-hourly). It is available both after and in real time, based on calibration by the TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation products, respectively. Only the after-real-time product incorporates gauge data at the present. The data set covers the latitude band 50 degrees N-S for the period 1998 to the delayed present. Early validation results are as follows: The TMPA provides reasonable performance at monthly scales, although it is shown to have precipitation rate dependent low bias due to lack of sensitivity to low precipitation rates in one of the input products (based on AMSU-B). At finer scales the TMPA is successful at approximately reproducing the surface-observation-based histogram of precipitation, as well as reasonably detecting large daily events. The TMPA, however, has lower skill in correctly specifying moderate and light event amounts on short time intervals, in common with other fine-scale estimators. Examples are provided of a flood event and diurnal cycle determination.

Budget impact analysis of switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

2014-01-01

To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs.

Budget Impact Analysis of Switching to Digital Mammography in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Program: A Discrete Event Simulation Model

PubMed Central

Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Results Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Conclusions Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs. PMID:24832200

Post-seismic relaxation following the 2009 April 6, L'Aquila (Italy), earthquake revealed by the mass position of a broad-band seismometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, Nicola Alessandro

2012-06-01

Post-seismic relaxation is known to occur after large or moderate earthquakes, on time scales ranging from days to years or even decades. In general, long-term deformation following seismic events has been detected by means of standard geodetic measurements, although seismic instruments are only used to estimate short timescale transient processes. Albeit inertial seismic sensors are also sensitive to rotation around their sensitive axes, the recording of very slow inclination of the ground surface at their standard output channels is practically impossible, because of their design characteristics. However, modern force-balance, broad-band seismometers provide the possibility to detect and measure slow surface inclination, through the analysis of the mass position signal. This output channel represents the integral of the broad-band velocity and is generally considered only for state-of-health diagnostics. In fact, the analysis of mass position data recorded at the time of the 2009 April 6, L'Aquila (MW= 6.3) earthquake, by a closely located STS-2 seismometer, evidenced the occurrence of a very low frequency signal, starting right at the time of the seismic event. This waveform is only visible on the horizontal components and is not related to the usual drift coupled with the temperature changes. This analysis suggests that the observed signal is to be ascribed to slowly developing ground inclination at the station site, caused by post-seismic relaxation following the main shock. The observed tilt reached 1.7 × 10-5 rad in about 2 months. This estimate is in very good agreement with the geodetic observations, giving comparable tilt magnitude and direction at the same site. This study represents the first seismic analysis ever for the mass position signal, suggesting useful applications for usually neglected data.

Cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan in chronic heart-failure patients with reduced ejection fraction.

PubMed

Ademi, Zanfina; Pfeil, Alena M; Hancock, Elizabeth; Trueman, David; Haroun, Rola Haroun; Deschaseaux, Celine; Schwenkglenks, Matthias

2017-11-29

We aimed to assess the cost effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan compared to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) for the treatment of individuals with chronic heart failure and reduced-ejection fraction (HFrEF) from the perspective of the Swiss health care system. The cost-effectiveness analysis was implemented as a lifelong regression-based cohort model. We compared sacubitril/valsartan with enalapril in chronic heart failure patients with HFrEF and New York-Heart Association Functional Classification II-IV symptoms. Regression models based on the randomised clinical phase III PARADIGM-HF trials were used to predict events (all-cause mortality, hospitalisations, adverse events and quality of life) for each treatment strategy modelled over the lifetime horizon, with adjustments for patient characteristics. Unit costs were obtained from Swiss public sources for the year 2014, and costs and effects were discounted by 3%. The main outcome of interest was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) and scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed. In the base-case analysis, the sacubitril/valsartan strategy showed a decrease in the number of hospitalisations (6.0% per year absolute reduction) and lifetime hospital costs by 8.0% (discounted) when compared with enalapril. Sacubitril/valsartan was predicted to improve overall and quality-adjusted survival by 0.50 years and 0.42 QALYs, respectively. Additional net-total costs were CHF 10 926. This led to an ICER of CHF 25 684. In PSA, the probability of sacubitril/valsartan being cost-effective at thresholds of CHF 50 000 was 99.0%. The treatment of HFrEF patients with sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril is cost effective, if a willingness-to-pay threshold of CHF 50 000 per QALY gained ratio is assumed.

Patterns of pulmonary maturation in normal and abnormal pregnancy.

PubMed

Goldkrand, J W; Slattery, D S

1979-03-01

Fetal pulmonary maturation may be a variable event depending on various feto-maternal environmental and biochemical influences. The patterns of maturation were studied in 211 amniotic fluid samples from 123 patients (normal 55; diabetes 23; Rh sensitization 19; preeclampsia 26). The phenomenon of globule formation from the amniotic fluid lipid extract and is relation to pulmonary maturity was utilized for this analysis. Validation of this technique is presented. A normal curve was constructed from 22 to 42 weeks; gestation and compared to the abnormal pregnancies. Patients with class A, B, and C diabetes and Rh-sensitized pregnancies had delayed pulmonary maturation. Patients with class D diabetes and preclampsia paralleled the normal course of maturation. A discussion of these results and their possible cause is presented.

SEE Sensitivity Analysis of 180 nm NAND CMOS Logic Cell for Space Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajid, Muhammad

2016-07-01

This paper focus on Single Event Effects caused by energetic particle strike on sensitive locations in CMOS NAND logic cell designed in 180nm technology node to be operated in space radiation environment. The generation of SE transients as well as upsets as function of LET of incident particle has been determined for logic devices onboard LEO and GEO satellites. The minimum magnitude pulse and pulse-width for threshold LET was determined to estimate the vulnerability /susceptibility of device for heavy ion strike. The impact of temperature, strike location and logic state of NAND circuit on total SEU/SET rate was estimated with physical mechanism simulations using Visual TCAD, Genius, runSEU program and Crad computer codes.

Early sensitivity of left perisylvian cortex to relationality in nouns and verbs.

PubMed

Williams, Adina; Reddigari, Samir; Pylkkänen, Liina

2017-06-01

The ability to track the relationality of concepts, i.e., their capacity to encode a relationship between entities, is one of the core semantic abilities humans possess. In language processing, we systematically leverage this ability when computing verbal argument structure, in order to link participants to the events they participate in. Previous work has converged on a large region of left posterior perisylvian cortex as a locus for such processing, but the wide range of experimental stimuli and manipulations has yielded an unclear picture of the region's exact role(s). Importantly, there is a tendency for effects of relationality in single-word studies to localize to posterior temporo-parietal cortex, while argument structure effects in sentences appear in left superior temporal cortex. To characterize these sensitivities, we designed two MEG experiments that cross the factors relationality and eventivity. The first used minimal noun phrases and tested for an effect of semantic composition, while the second employed full sentences and a manipulation of grammatical category. The former identified a region of the left inferior parietal lobe sensitive to relationality, but not eventivity or combination, beginning at 170ms. The latter revealed a similarly-timed effect of relationality in left mid-superior temporal cortex, independent of eventivity and category. The results suggest that i) multiple sub-regions of perisylvian cortex are sensitive to the relationality carried by concepts even in the absence of arguments, ii) linguistic context modulates the locus of this sensitivity, consistent with prior studies, and iii) relationality information is accessed early - before 200ms - regardless of the concept's event status or syntactic category. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Temperature and Supply Voltage on SEU- and SET-Induced Errors in Bulk 40-nm Sequential Circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. M.; Diggins, Z. J.; Mahatme, N. N.; Wang, L.; Zhang, E. X.; Chen, Y. P.; Zhang, H.; Liu, Y. N.; Narasimham, B.; Witulski, A. F.; Bhuva, B. L.; Fleetwood, D. M.

2017-08-01

The single-event sensitivity of bulk 40-nm sequential circuits is investigated as a function of temperature and supply voltage. An overall increase in SEU cross section versus temperature is observed at relatively high supply voltages. However, at low supply voltages, there is a threshold temperature beyond which the SEU cross section decreases with further increases in temperature. Single-event transient induced errors in flip-flops also increase versus temperature at relatively high supply voltages and are more sensitive to temperature variation than those caused by single-event upsets.

Upper Gastrointestinal Complications and Cardiovascular/Gastrointestinal Risk Calculator in Patients with Myocardial Infarction Treated with Aspirin.

PubMed

Wen, Lei

2017-08-20

Aspirin is widely used for the prevention of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases for the past few years. However, much attention has been paid to the adverse effects associated with aspirin such as gastrointestinal bleeding. How to weigh the benefits and hazards? The current study aimed to assess the feasibility of a cardiovascular/gastrointestinal risk calculator, AsaRiskCalculator, in predicting gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with myocardial infarction (MI), determining unique risk factor(s) for gastrointestinal events to be considered in the calculator. The MI patients who visited Shapingba District People's Hospital between January 2012 and January 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Based on gastroscopic data, the patients were divided into two groups: gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups. Demographic and clinical data of the patients were then retrieved for statistical analysis. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for gastrointestinal events. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive value of AsaRiskCalculator for gastrointestinal events. A total of 400 MI patients meeting the eligibility criteria were analyzed, including 94 and 306 in the gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal groups, respectively. The data showed that age, male gender, predicted gastrointestinal events, and Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection were positively correlated with gastrointestinal events. In multiple logistic regression analysis, predicted gastrointestinal events and HP infection were identified as risk factors for actual gastrointestinal events. HP infection was highly predictive in Chinese patients; the ROC curve indicated an area under the curve of 0.822 (95% confidence interval: 0.774-0.870). The best diagnostic cutoff point of predicted gastrointestinal events was 68.0‰, yielding sensitivity and specificity of 60.6% and 93.1%, respectively, for predicting gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with MI. AsaRiskCalculator had a predictive value for gastrointestinal events in Chinese patients with MI. HP infection seemed to be an independent risk factor for gastrointestinal events caused by long-term aspirin treatment in Chinese patients with MI, and it should be included in the risk calculator adapted for Chinese patients.

Cost-effectiveness of dabigatran compared with warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation--a real patient data analysis in a Hong Kong teaching hospital.

PubMed

Chang, Andy M; Ho, Jason C S; Yan, Bryan P; Yu, Cheuk Man; Lam, Yat Yin; Lee, Vivian W Y

2013-05-01

To compare the management cost and cost-effectiveness of dabigatran with warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) from the hospital's and patients' perspectives. Dabigatran is more cost-effective than warfarin for stroke prevention of AF in Hong Kong. The analysis was performed in conjunction with a drug utilization evaluation of dabigatran study in a teaching hospital in Hong Kong. The study recruited 244 patients who received either dabigatran or warfarin for stroke prevention of AF. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed and was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in averting a cardiac event or a bleeding event. A sensitivity analysis was used on all relevant variables to test the robustness. From the hospital's perspective, the dabigatran group had a lower total cost of management than that of the warfarin group (median: US$421 vs US$1306, P < 0.001) (US$1 = HK$7.75) and was dominant over warfarin. From the patients' perspective, the total cost of management in the dabigatran group was higher than that in warfarin group (median: US$1751 vs US$70, P < 0.001), and the ICER in preventing a cardiac or bleeding event of dabigatran vs warfarin was estimated at US$68,333 and US$20,500, respectively. If dabigatran was subsidized by the hospital, a higher cost would be incurred by the hospital (median: US$1679 vs US$1306, ICER (cardiac and bleeding events): US$15,163 and US$4549, respectively). The study favored dabigatran for stroke prophylaxis in patients with nonvalvular AF in Hong Kong under the current hospital's perspective and provided a reference for further comparisons under patient and subsidization perspectives. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, C.; Walker, R.; Klinkrad, H.

Long-term debris environment models play a vital role in furthering our understanding of the future debris environment, and in aiding the determination of a strategy to preserve the Earth orbital environment for future use. By their very nature these models have to make certain assumptions to enable informative future projections to be made. Examples of these assumptions include the projection of future traffic, including launch and explosion rates, and the methodology used to simulate break-up events. To ensure a sound basis for future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of these models to variations in key assumptions is examined. The DELTA (Debris Environment Long Term Analysis) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency, allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. Extensive analyses with this model have been performed under the auspices of the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook and following the recent upgrade of the model to DELTA 3.0. This paper draws on these analyses to present the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically the paper will address the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.

Context-sensitive patch histograms for detecting rare events in histopathological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Kristians; Baust, Maximilian; Navab, Nassir

2017-03-01

Assessment of histopathological data is not only difficult due to its varying appearance, e.g. caused by staining artifacts, but also due to its sheer size: Common whole slice images feature a resolution of 6000x4000 pixels. Therefore, finding rare events in such data sets is a challenging and tedious task and developing sophisticated computerized tools is not easy, especially when no or little training data is available. In this work, we propose learning-free yet effective approach based on context sensitive patch-histograms in order to find extramedullary hematopoiesis events in Hematoxylin-Eosin-stained images. When combined with a simple nucleus detector, one can achieve performance levels in terms of sensitivity 0.7146, specificity 0.8476 and accuracy 0.8353 which are very well comparable to a recently published approach based on random forests.

Fast retrieval and autonomous regulation of single spontaneously recycling synaptic vesicles

PubMed Central

Leitz, Jeremy; Kavalali, Ege T

2014-01-01

Presynaptic terminals release neurotransmitters spontaneously in a manner that can be regulated by Ca2+. However, the mechanisms underlying this regulation are poorly understood because the inherent stochasticity and low probability of spontaneous fusion events has curtailed their visualization at individual release sites. Here, using pH-sensitive optical probes targeted to synaptic vesicles, we visualized single spontaneous fusion events and found that they are retrieved extremely rapidly with faster re-acidification kinetics than their action potential-evoked counterparts. These fusion events were coupled to postsynaptic NMDA receptor-driven Ca2+ signals, and at elevated Ca2+ concentrations there was an increase in the number of vesicles that would undergo fusion. Furthermore, spontaneous vesicle fusion propensity in a synapse was Ca2+-dependent but regulated autonomously: independent of evoked fusion probability at the same synapse. Taken together, these results expand classical quantal analysis to incorporate endocytic and exocytic phases of single fusion events and uncover autonomous regulation of spontaneous fusion. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03658.001 PMID:25415052

Complexity measures of music

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pease, April; Mahmoodi, Korosh; West, Bruce J.

2018-03-01

We present a technique to search for the presence of crucial events in music, based on the analysis of the music volume. Earlier work on this issue was based on the assumption that crucial events correspond to the change of music notes, with the interesting result that the complexity index of the crucial events is mu ~ 2, which is the same inverse power-law index of the dynamics of the brain. The search technique analyzes music volume and confirms the results of the earlier work, thereby contributing to the explanation as to why the brain is sensitive to music, through the phenomenon of complexity matching. Complexity matching has recently been interpreted as the transfer of multifractality from one complex network to another. For this reason we also examine the mulifractality of music, with the observation that the multifractal spectrum of a computer performance is significantly narrower than the multifractal spectrum of a human performance of the same musical score. We conjecture that although crucial events are demonstrably important for information transmission, they alone are not suficient to define musicality, which is more adequately measured by the multifractality spectrum.

Origins of mother-child reminiscing style.

PubMed

Reese, Elaine; Meins, Elizabeth; Fernyhough, Charles; Centifanti, Luna

2018-04-26

Maternal elaborative reminiscing supports preschool children's autobiographical memory, self-concept, and emotion understanding. What are the factors contributing to mothers' elaborative style of reminiscing? In a longitudinal community sample (n = 170 at the final data point), this study explored the role of maternal depression (8-44 months), maternal sensitivity and maternal mind-mindedness (8 months), as well as child factors of joint attention (15 months), attachment security (15 months), and language (26 months) for mother-child reminiscing about a positive (happy) and a negative (scared) event at 44 months. Mothers could be classed into two groups of low versus increasing depression from 8 to 44 months, yet maternal depression did not uniquely predict mother-child reminiscing after accounting for maternal sensitivity and other factors. Instead, maternal sensitivity, children's joint attention, and language uniquely predicted children's elaborations about the scared event at 44 months, and maternal sensitivity uniquely predicted mothers' elaborations about the scared event at 44 months. Mothers who are more sensitive in early interactions may later be better at engaging their children when reminiscing about negative emotions. These findings have implications for the design of interventions targeted at supporting mothers to engage in elaborative reminiscing with their preschool children.

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance

2014-01-01

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Case, J. L.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Srikishen, J.; Medlin, J. M.; Wood, L.

2014-01-01

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

Prevalence of serious bleeding events and intracranial hemorrhage in patients receiving activated protein C: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Ajmal; Agarwal, Ritesh; Aggarwal, Ashutosh N; Gupta, Dheeraj

2010-07-01

Activated protein C reduces 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis, but its anticoagulant properties entail a risk of bleeding. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the prevalence of serious bleeding events in patients receiving activated protein C. We searched the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for studies that described the prevalence of serious bleeding events and intracranial hemorrhage in patients receiving activated protein C. We calculated the bleeding rates by calculating proportions and 95% CIs for each study, and then pooled the data to derive a pooled proportion and 95% CI. Our search yielded 17 studies, which included 10,679 patients. The occurrence of serious bleeding events in patients receiving activated protein C ranged from 0.5% to 9.6%, and the pooled prevalence was 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.4%) by the random effects model. The occurrence of intracranial hemorrhage ranged from 0% to 1.4%, and the pooled prevalence was 0.44% (95% CI 0.31-0.6%). Sensitivity analysis showed a higher prevalence of bleeding in the observational studies than in the randomized controlled trials. There was substantial clinical and statistical heterogeneity, but no evidence of publication bias. Activated protein C is associated with significant risk of bleeding, so strict inclusion and exclusion criteria should be set prior to administering activated protein C.

Economics of Home Monitoring for Apnea in Late Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Montenegro, Brian L; Amberson, Michael; Veit, Lauren; Freiberger, Christina; Dukhovny, Dmitry; Rhein, Lawrence M

2017-01-01

Apnea of prematurity affects a small proportion but large absolute number of late preterm infants, with out-patient management variably utilized despite relative clinical equipoise and potential for improved cost-effectiveness. Over a 5-y period, from 2009 to 2013, infants born at ≥34 weeks gestational age at a level IIIB academic center in Boston, Massachusetts, with discharge-delaying apnea, bradycardia, and desaturation (ABD) events were identified. In-patient costs for discharge-delaying ABD events were compared with hypothetical out-patient management. Out-patient costs took into account 4-10 d of in-patient observation for ABD events before caffeine initiation, 3-5 d of additional in-patient observation before discharge, daily caffeine until 43 weeks corrected gestational age, home pulse oximetry monitoring until 44 weeks corrected gestational age, and consideration of variable readmission rates ranging from 0 to 10%. A total of 425 late preterm and term infants were included in our analysis. Utilization of hypothetical out-patient management resulted in cost savings per eligible patient ranging from $2,422 to $62, dependent upon variable periods of in-patient observation. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated few instances of decreased relative cost-effectiveness. Out-patient management of discharge-delaying ABD events in a late preterm and term population was a cost-effective alternative to prolonged in-patient observation. Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.

NPE 2010 results - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, O.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Gestermann, N.; Hartmann, G.; Plenefisch, T.

2012-04-01

For verification of compliance to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) the global International Monitoring System (IMS) is currently being built up. The IMS is designed to detect nuclear explosions through their seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide signature. The IMS data are collected, processed to analysis products, and distributed to the state signatories by the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna. The state signatories themselves may operate National Data Centers (NDC) giving technical advice concerning CTBT verification to the government. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed to practice the verification procedures for the detection of nuclear explosions in the framework of CTBT monitoring. The initial focus of the NPE 2010 was on the component of radionuclide detections and the application of Atmospheric Transport Modeling (ATM) for defining the source region of a radionuclide event. The exercise was triggered by fictitious radioactive noble gas detections which were calculated beforehand secretly by forward ATM for a hypothetical xenon release scenario starting at location and time of a real seismic event. The task for the exercise participants was to find potential source events by atmospheric backtracking and to analyze in the following promising candidate events concerning their waveform signals. The study shows one possible way of solution for NPE 2010 as it was performed at German NDC by a team without precedent knowledge of the selected event and release scenario. The ATM Source Receptor Sensitivity (SRS) fields as provided by the IDC were evaluated in a logical approach in order to define probable source regions for several days before the first reported fictitious radioactive xenon finding. Additional information on likely event times was derived from xenon isotopic ratios where applicable. Of the considered seismic events in the potential source region all except one could be identified as earthquakes by seismological analysis. The remaining event at Black Thunder Mine, Wyoming, on 23 Oct at 21:15 UTC showed clear explosion characteristics. It caused also Infrasound detections at one station in Canada. An infrasonic one station localization algorithm led to event localization results comparable in precision to the teleseismic localization. However, the analysis of regional seismological stations gave the most accurate result giving an error ellipse of about 60 square kilometer. Finally a forward ATM simulation was performed with the candidate event as source in order to reproduce the original detection scenario. The ATM results showed a simulated station fingerprint in the IMS very similar to the fictitious detections given in the NPE 2010 scenario which is an additional confirmation that the event was correctly identified. The shown event analysis of the NPE 2010 serves as successful example for Data Fusion between the technology of radionuclide detection supported by ATM and seismological methodology as well as infrasound signal processing.

Sleep disordered breathing analysis in a general population using standard pulse oximeter signals.

PubMed

Barak-Shinar, Deganit; Amos, Yariv; Bogan, Richard K

2013-09-01

Obstructive sleep apnea reported as the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) is usually measured in sleep laboratories using a high number of electrodes connected to the patient's body. In this study, we examined the use of a standard pulse oximeter system with an automated analysis based on the photoplethysmograph (PPG) signal for the diagnosis of sleep disordered breathing. Using a standard and simple device with high accuracy might provide a convenient diagnostic or screening solution for patient evaluation at home or in other out of center testing environments. The study included 140 consecutive patients that were referred routinely to a sleep laboratory [SleepMed Inc.] for the diagnosis of sleep disordered breathing. Each patient underwent an overnight polysomnography (PSG) study according to AASM guidelines in an AASM-accredited sleep laboratory. The automatic analysis is based on photoplethysmographic and saturation signals only. Those two signals were recorded for the entire night as part of the full overnight PSG sleep study. The AHI calculated from the PPG analysis is compared to the AHI calculated from the manual scoring gold standard full PSG. The AHI and total respiratory events measured by the pulse oximeter analysis correlated very well with the corresponding results obtained by the gold standard full PSG. The sensitivity and specificity of AHI = or > 5 and 15 levels measured by the analysis are both above 90 %. The sensitivity and positive predictive value for the detection of respiratory event are both above 84 %. The tested system in this study yielded an acceptable result of sleep disordered breathing compared to the gold standard PSG in patients with moderate to severe sleep apnea. Accordingly and given the convenience and simplicity of the standard pulse oximeter device, the new system can be considered suitable for home and ambulatory diagnosis or screening of sleep disordered breathing patients.

Potentially Preventable Hospital and Emergency Department Events: Lessons from a Large Innovation Project.

PubMed

Solberg, Leif I; Ohnsorg, Kris A; Parker, Emily D; Ferguson, Robert; Magnan, Sanne; Whitebird, Robin R; Neely, Claire; Brandenfels, Emily; Williams, Mark D; Dreskin, Mark; Hinnenkamp, Todd; Ziegenfuss, Jeanette Y

2018-06-04

There are few proven strategies to reduce the frequency of potentially preventable hospitalizations and Emergency Department (ED) visits. To facilitate strategy development, we documented these events among complex patients and the factors that contribute to them in a large care-improvement initiative. Observational study with retrospective audits and selective interviews by the patients' care managers among 12 diverse medical groups in California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Washington that participated in an initiative to implement collaborative care for patients with both depression and either uncontrolled diabetes, uncontrolled hypertension, or both. We reviewed information about 373 adult patients with the required conditions who belonged to these medical groups and had experienced 389 hospitalizations or ED visits during the 12-month study period from March 30, 2014, through March 29, 2015. The main outcome measures were potentially preventable hospitalizations or ED visit events. Of the studied events, 28% were considered to be potentially preventable (39% of ED visits and 14% of hospitalizations) and 4.6% of patients had 40% of events. Only type of insurance coverage; patient lack of resources, caretakers, or understanding of care; and inability to access clinic care were more frequent in those with potentially preventable events. Neither disease control nor ambulatory care-sensitive conditions were associated with potentially preventable events. Among these complex patients, patient characteristics, disease control, and the presence of ambulatory care-sensitive conditions were not associated with likelihood of ED visits or hospital admissions, including those considered to be potentially preventable. The current focus on using ambulatory care-sensitive conditions as a proxy for potentially preventable events needs further evaluation.

Interactive effects of childhood maltreatment and recent stressful life events on alcohol consumption in adulthood.

PubMed

Young-Wolff, Kelly C; Kendler, Kenneth S; Prescott, Carol A

2012-07-01

Childhood maltreatment is associated with early alcohol use initiation, alcohol-related problem behaviors, and alcohol use disorders in adulthood. Heavy drinking risk among individuals exposed to childhood maltreatment could be partly attributable to stress sensitization, whereby early adversity leads to psychobiological changes that heighten sensitivity to subsequent stressors and increase risk for stress-related drinking. We addressed this issue by examining whether the association between past-year stressful life events and past-year drinking density, a weighted quantity-frequency measure of alcohol consumption, was stronger among adults exposed to childhood maltreatment. Drinking density, stressful life events, and child maltreatment were assessed using structured clinical interviews in a sample of 4,038 male and female participants ages 20-58 years from the Virginia Adult Twin Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders. Stress sensitization was examined using hierarchical multiple regression analyses to test whether stressful events moderated the association between maltreatment and drinking density. Analyses were stratified by sex and whether the impact was different for independent stressful events or dependent stressful events as related to a participant's actions. Independent stressful events were associated with heavier drinking density among women exposed to maltreatment. In contrast, drinking density was roughly the same across independent stressful life events exposure among women not exposed to maltreatment. There was little evidence for Maltreatment × Independent Stressor interactions in men or Maltreatment × Dependent Stressor interactions in either gender. Early maltreatment may have direct effects on vulnerability to stress-related drinking among women, particularly in association with stressors that are out of one's control.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Does it really feel the same? Changes in life satisfaction following repeated life events.

PubMed

Luhmann, Maike; Eid, Michael

2009-08-01

Unemployment, divorce, and marriage are common life events for most people in Western societies. In a longitudinal study, the authors investigated how these life events affect life satisfaction when they occur repeatedly. Data came from the German Socio-Economic Panel, a large-scale representative panel study, and were analyzed using multilevel modeling. Results showed that, in general, life satisfaction decreases with repeated unemployment (sensitization). For repeated divorces, life satisfaction is higher at the second divorce than it had been at the first divorce (adaptation). Finally, life satisfaction is similar at repeated marriages. Neuroticism, extraversion, and gender accounted for interindividual differences in changes in life satisfaction. For instance, the general sensitization pattern associated with repeated unemployment was less pronounced for women. The authors also found main effects of age and the duration of the first event on general differences in life satisfaction. Finally, those with repeated events generally report lower life satisfaction than those with only one occasion of these events, even before the first event actually occurred. Findings show that repeated events can have very different effects on life satisfaction that depend on the nature of the event.

NO TIME FOR DEAD TIME: TIMING ANALYSIS OF BRIGHT BLACK HOLE BINARIES WITH NuSTAR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bachetti, Matteo; Barret, Didier; Harrison, Fiona A.

Timing of high-count-rate sources with the NuSTAR Small Explorer Mission requires specialized analysis techniques. NuSTAR was primarily designed for spectroscopic observations of sources with relatively low count rates rather than for timing analysis of bright objects. The instrumental dead time per event is relatively long (∼2.5 msec) and varies event-to-event by a few percent. The most obvious effect is a distortion of the white noise level in the power density spectrum (PDS) that cannot be easily modeled with standard techniques due to the variable nature of the dead time. In this paper, we show that it is possible to exploitmore » the presence of two completely independent focal planes and use the cospectrum, the real part of the cross PDS, to obtain a good proxy of the white-noise-subtracted PDS. Thereafter, one can use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the remaining effects of dead time, namely, a frequency-dependent modulation of the variance and a frequency-independent drop of the sensitivity to variability. In this way, most of the standard timing analysis can be performed, albeit with a sacrifice in signal-to-noise ratio relative to what would be achieved using more standard techniques. We apply this technique to NuSTAR observations of the black hole binaries GX 339–4, Cyg X-1, and GRS 1915+105.« less

A New Pulse Pileup Rejection Method Based on Position Shift Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Z.; Prout, D. L.; Taschereau, R.; Bai, B.; Chatziioannou, A. F.

2016-02-01

Pulse pileup events degrade the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of nuclear medicine data. When such events occur in multiplexed detectors, they cause spatial misposition, energy spectrum distortion and degraded timing resolution, which leads to image artifacts. Pulse pileup is pronounced in PETbox4, a bench top PET scanner dedicated to high sensitivity and high resolution imaging of mice. In that system, the combination of high absolute sensitivity, long scintillator decay time (BGO) and highly multiplexed electronics lead to a significant fraction of pulse pileup, reached at lower total activity than for comparable instruments. In this manuscript, a new pulse pileup rejection method named position shift rejection (PSR) is introduced. The performance of PSR is compared with a conventional leading edge rejection (LER) method and with no pileup rejection implemented (NoPR). A comprehensive digital pulse library was developed for objective evaluation and optimization of the PSR and LER, in which pulse waveforms were directly recorded from real measurements exactly representing the signals to be processed. Physical measurements including singles event acquisition, peak system sensitivity and NEMA NU-4 image quality phantom were also performed in the PETbox4 system to validate and compare the different pulse pile-up rejection methods. The evaluation of both physical measurements and model pulse trains demonstrated that the new PSR performs more accurate pileup event identification and avoids erroneous rejection of valid events. For the PETbox4 system, this improvement leads to a significant recovery of sensitivity at low count rates, amounting to about 1/4th of the expected true coincidence events, compared to the LER method. Furthermore, with the implementation of PSR, optimal image quality can be achieved near the peak noise equivalent count rate (NECR).

Avalanche correlations in the martensitic transition of a Cu-Zn-Al shape memory alloy: analysis of acoustic emission and calorimetry.

PubMed

Baró, Jordi; Martín-Olalla, José-María; Romero, Francisco Javier; Gallardo, María Carmen; Salje, Ekhard K H; Vives, Eduard; Planes, Antoni

2014-03-26

The existence of temporal correlations during the intermittent dynamics of a thermally driven structural phase transition is studied in a Cu-Zn-Al alloy. The sequence of avalanches is observed by means of two techniques: acoustic emission and high sensitivity calorimetry. Both methods reveal the existence of event clustering in a way that is equivalent to the Omori correlations between aftershocks in earthquakes as are commonly used in seismology.

Long-term recording and automatic analysis of cough using filtered acoustic signals and movements on static charge sensitive bed.

PubMed

Salmi, T; Sovijärvi, A R; Brander, P; Piirilä, P

1988-11-01

Reliable long-term assessment of cough is necessary in many clinical and scientific settings. A new method for long-term recording and automatic analysis of cough is presented. The method is based on simultaneous recording of two independent signals: high-pass filtered cough sounds and cough-induced fast movements of the body. The acoustic signals are recorded with a dynamic microphone in the acoustic focus of a glass fiber paraboloid mirror. Body movements are recorded with a static charge-sensitive bed located under an ordinary plastic foam mattress. The patient can be studied lying or sitting with no transducers or electrodes attached. A microcomputer is used for sampling of signals, detection of cough, statistical analyses, and on-line printing of results. The method was validated in seven adult patients with a total of 809 spontaneous cough events, using clinical observation as a reference. The sensitivity of the method to detect cough was 99.0 percent, and the positive predictivity was 98.1 percent. The system ignored speaking and snoring. The method provides a convenient means of reliable long-term follow-up of cough in clinical work and research.

[Spatiotemporal pattern analysis of event-related potentials elicited by emotional Stroop task].

PubMed

Liu, Qi; Liu, Ling; He, Hui; Zhou, Shu

2007-05-01

To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of event-related potentials (ERPs) induced by emotional Stroop task. The ERPs of 19 channels were recorded from 13 healthy subjects while performing emotional Stroop task by pressing the buttons representing the colors in which the words denoting different emotions were displayed. A repeated-measures factorial design was adopted with three levels (word valence: positive, neutral and negative). The result of ERP analysis was presented in the form of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) of F value. No significant difference was found in either reaction time or accuracy. The SPM of ERPs suggested significant emotional valence effects in the occipital region (200-220 ms), the left and central frontal regions (270-300 ms), and the bilateral temporal and parietal cortex (560-580 and 620-630 ms, respectively). Processing of task-irrelevant emotional valence information involves the dynamic operation of extensive brain regions. The ERPs are more sensitive than the behavioral indices in emotional evaluation.

Single Event Effect Testing of the Micron MT46V128M8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stansberry, Scott; Campola, Michael; Wilcox, Ted; Seidleck, Christina; Phan, Anthony

2017-01-01

The Micron MT46V128M8 was tested for single event effects (SEE) at the Texas AM University Cyclotron Facility (TAMU) in June of 2017. Testing revealed a sensitivity to device hang-ups classified as single event functional interrupts (SEFI) and possible soft data errors classified as single event upsets (SEU).

Analysis of Particulate Contamination During Launch of MMS Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brieda, Lubos; Barrie, Alexander; Hughes, David; Errigo, Therese

2010-01-01

NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) is an unmanned constellation of four identical spacecraft designed to investigate magnetic reconnection by obtaining detailed measurements of plasma properties in Earth's magnetopause and magnetotail. Each of the four identical satellites carries a suite of instruments which characterize the ambient ion and electron energy spectrum and composition. Some of these instruments utilize microchannel plates and are sensitive to particulate contamination. In this paper, we analyze the transport of particulates during pre-launch, launch and ascent events, and use the analysis to obtain quantitative predictions of contamination impact on the instruments. Viewfactor calculation is performed by considering the gravitational and aerodynamic forces acting on the particles.

Expanding the horizons for single-cell applications on lab-on-a-chip devices.

PubMed

Kim, Soo Hyeon; Fourmy, Dominique; Fujii, Teruo

2012-01-01

Stochastic events in gene expression, protein synthesis, and metabolite synthesis or degradation lead to cellular heterogeneity essential to life. In a tissue as we see in organs, there is strong heterogeneity among the constituting cells critical to its function. Thus, there exists a strong demand to develop new micro/nanosystems that would enable us to conduct single-cell analysis. This field is rapidly growing, as exemplified below with recent emerging technologies that now reveal sensitive single-cell "omics" analysis. We describe in the review some of the most promising technologies that will certainly transform our view of biology in the near future.

Statistical analysis of flight times for space shuttle ferry flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, M. E.; Perlmutter, M.

1974-01-01

Markov chain and Monte Carlo analysis techniques are applied to the simulated Space Shuttle Orbiter Ferry flights to obtain statistical distributions of flight time duration between Edwards Air Force Base and Kennedy Space Center. The two methods are compared, and are found to be in excellent agreement. The flights are subjected to certain operational and meteorological requirements, or constraints, which cause eastbound and westbound trips to yield different results. Persistence of events theory is applied to the occurrence of inclement conditions to find their effect upon the statistical flight time distribution. In a sensitivity test, some of the constraints are varied to observe the corresponding changes in the results.

Stressful life events and social health factors in women using anxiolytics and antidepressants: an Italian observational study in community pharmacies.

PubMed

D'Incau, Paola; Barbui, Corrado; Tubini, Jacopo; Conforti, Anita

2011-04-01

In Italy, as in all of Europe, women differ from men in that they are somewhat more sensitive to the depressogenic effects of stressful life events related to their social networks and emotional sphere. Women are more likely than men to have experienced poverty, gender discrimination, and physical and sexual abuse. The purpose of this study was to expand the knowledge about the occurrence of stressful life events in women exposed and not exposed to anxiolytics and antidepressants in a community pharmacy setting. Women attending 100 community pharmacies in the Italian Veneto region were surveyed by pharmacists with regard to a number of general features of their current pharmacologic treatment. Women independently completed a written self-assessment questionnaire that focused on stressful life events. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between anxiolytics and antidepressants use and potential factors, including stressful life events. The study population comprised 11,357 women. One or more stressful life events occurred in 90% of the women treated with anxiolytics and/or antidepressants (users [n = 3848]) and in 74% of the women not treated with these drugs (nonusers [n = 7509]) (odds ratio = 3.19; 95% CI, 2.83-3.60). On average, the life events occurred during the previous 6 months and the women considered the influence of these events on their well-being to be severe. After the unconditional logistic regression analysis, the association between anxiolytics and/or antidepressants use remained positive for most of the stressful life events studied as well as for other factors: separation/divorce, living alone or with others (family or friends), unemployment, whether currently being seen by a psychologist/psychiatrist, and treatment with drugs for the alimentary tract and metabolism, cardiovascular system, or nervous system. A significant association between stressful life events and anxiolytics and/or antidepressants use was observed. Further efforts are needed to increase our knowledge of the use of anxiolytics or antidepressants in relation to the occurrence of life events. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement of distributions sensitive to the underlying event in inclusive Z-boson production in [Formula: see text] collisions at [Formula: see text] TeV with the ATLAS detector.

PubMed

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Cribbs, W A; Crispin Ortuzar, M; Cristinziani, M; Croft, V; Crosetti, G; Cuciuc, C-M; Cuhadar Donszelmann, T; Cummings, J; Curatolo, M; Cuthbert, C; Czirr, H; Czodrowski, P; Czyczula, Z; D'Auria, S; D'Onofrio, M; Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, M J Da; Via, C Da; Dabrowski, W; Dafinca, A; Dai, T; Dale, O; Dallaire, F; Dallapiccola, C; Dam, M; Daniells, A C; Dano Hoffmann, M; Dao, V; Darbo, G; Darmora, S; Dassoulas, J A; Dattagupta, A; Davey, W; David, C; Davidek, T; Davies, E; Davies, M; Davignon, O; Davison, A R; Davison, P; Davygora, Y; Dawe, E; Dawson, I; Daya-Ishmukhametova, R K; De, K; de Asmundis, R; De Castro, S; De Cecco, S; De Groot, N; de Jong, P; De la Torre, H; De Lorenzi, F; De Nooij, L; De Pedis, D; De Salvo, A; De Sanctis, U; De Santo, A; De Vivie De Regie, J B; Dearnaley, W J; Debbe, R; Debenedetti, C; Dechenaux, B; Dedovich, D V; Deigaard, I; Del Peso, J; Del Prete, T; Deliot, F; Delitzsch, C M; Deliyergiyev, M; Dell'Acqua, A; Dell'Asta, L; Dell'Orso, M; Della Pietra, M; Della Volpe, D; 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Edwards, N C; Ehrenfeld, W; Eifert, T; Eigen, G; Einsweiler, K; Ekelof, T; El Kacimi, M; Ellert, M; Elles, S; Ellinghaus, F; Ellis, N; Elmsheuser, J; Elsing, M; Emeliyanov, D; Enari, Y; Endner, O C; Endo, M; Engelmann, R; Erdmann, J; Ereditato, A; Eriksson, D; Ernis, G; Ernst, J; Ernst, M; Ernwein, J; Errede, D; Errede, S; Ertel, E; Escalier, M; Esch, H; Escobar, C; Esposito, B; Etienvre, A I; Etzion, E; Evans, H; Ezhilov, A; Fabbri, L; Facini, G; Fakhrutdinov, R M; Falciano, S; Falla, R J; Faltova, J; Fang, Y; Fanti, M; Farbin, A; Farilla, A; Farooque, T; Farrell, S; Farrington, S M; Farthouat, P; Fassi, F; Fassnacht, P; Fassouliotis, D; Favareto, A; Fayard, L; Federic, P; Fedin, O L; Fedorko, W; Fehling-Kaschek, M; Feigl, S; Feligioni, L; Feng, C; Feng, E J; Feng, H; Fenyuk, A B; Fernandez Perez, S; Ferrag, S; Ferrando, J; Ferrari, A; Ferrari, P; Ferrari, R; Ferreira de Lima, D E; Ferrer, A; Ferrere, D; Ferretti, C; Ferretto Parodi, A; Fiascaris, M; Fiedler, F; Filipčič, A; Filipuzzi, M; 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Ruan, X; Rubbo, F; Rubinskiy, I; Rud, V I; Rudolph, C; Rudolph, M S; Rühr, F; Ruiz-Martinez, A; Rurikova, Z; Rusakovich, N A; Ruschke, A; Rutherfoord, J P; Ruthmann, N; Ryabov, Y F; Rybar, M; Rybkin, G; Ryder, N C; Saavedra, A F; Sacerdoti, S; Saddique, A; Sadeh, I; Sadrozinski, H F-W; Sadykov, R; Safai Tehrani, F; Sakamoto, H; Sakurai, Y; Salamanna, G; Salamon, A; Saleem, M; Salek, D; Sales De Bruin, P H; Salihagic, D; Salnikov, A; Salt, J; Salvatore, D; Salvatore, F; Salvucci, A; Salzburger, A; Sampsonidis, D; Sanchez, A; Sánchez, J; Sanchez Martinez, V; Sandaker, H; Sandbach, R L; Sander, H G; Sanders, M P; Sandhoff, M; Sandoval, T; Sandoval, C; Sandstroem, R; Sankey, D P C; Sansoni, A; Santoni, C; Santonico, R; Santos, H; Santoyo Castillo, I; Sapp, K; Sapronov, A; Saraiva, J G; Sarrazin, B; Sartisohn, G; Sasaki, O; Sasaki, Y; Sauvage, G; Sauvan, E; Savard, P; Savu, D O; Sawyer, C; Sawyer, L; Saxon, D H; Saxon, J; Sbarra, C; Sbrizzi, A; Scanlon, T; Scannicchio, D A; Scarcella, M; Scarfone, V; Schaarschmidt, J; Schacht, P; Schaefer, D; Schaefer, R; Schaepe, S; Schaetzel, S; Schäfer, U; Schaffer, A C; Schaile, D; Schamberger, R D; Scharf, V; Schegelsky, V A; Scheirich, D; Schernau, M; Scherzer, M I; Schiavi, C; Schieck, J; Schillo, C; Schioppa, M; Schlenker, S; Schmidt, E; Schmieden, K; Schmitt, C; Schmitt, S; Schneider, B; Schnellbach, Y J; Schnoor, U; Schoeffel, L; Schoening, A; Schoenrock, B D; Schorlemmer, A L S; Schott, M; Schouten, D; Schovancova, J; Schramm, S; Schreyer, M; Schroeder, C; Schuh, N; Schultens, M J; Schultz-Coulon, H-C; Schulz, H; Schumacher, M; Schumm, B A; Schune, Ph; Schwanenberger, C; Schwartzman, A; Schwarz, T A; Schwegler, Ph; Schwemling, Ph; Schwienhorst, R; Schwindling, J; Schwindt, T; Schwoerer, M; Sciacca, F G; Scifo, E; Sciolla, G; Scott, W G; Scuri, F; Scutti, F; Searcy, J; Sedov, G; Sedykh, E; Seidel, S C; Seiden, A; Seifert, F; Seixas, J M; Sekhniaidze, G; Sekula, S J; Selbach, K E; Seliverstov, D M; Sellers, G; Semprini-Cesari, N; Serfon, C; 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Solar, M; Solc, J; Soldatov, E Yu; Soldevila, U; Solodkov, A A; Soloshenko, A; Solovyanov, O V; Solovyev, V; Sommer, P; Song, H Y; Soni, N; Sood, A; Sopczak, A; Sopko, B; Sopko, V; Sorin, V; Sosebee, M; Soualah, R; Soueid, P; Soukharev, A M; South, D; Spagnolo, S; Spanò, F; Spearman, W R; Spettel, F; Spighi, R; Spigo, G; Spiller, L A; Spousta, M; Spreitzer, T; Spurlock, B; Denis, R D St; Staerz, S; Stahlman, J; Stamen, R; Stamm, S; Stanecka, E; Stanek, R W; Stanescu, C; Stanescu-Bellu, M; Stanitzki, M M; Stapnes, S; Starchenko, E A; Stark, J; Staroba, P; Starovoitov, P; Staszewski, R; Stavina, P; Steinberg, P; Stelzer, B; Stelzer, H J; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stenzel, H; Stern, S; Stewart, G A; Stillings, J A; Stockton, M C; Stoebe, M; Stoicea, G; Stolte, P; Stonjek, S; Stradling, A R; Straessner, A; Stramaglia, M E; Strandberg, J; Strandberg, S; Strandlie, A; Strauss, E; Strauss, M; Strizenec, P; Ströhmer, R; Strom, D M; Stroynowski, R; Struebig, A; Stucci, S A; Stugu, B; Styles, N A; Su, D; Su, J; Subramaniam, R; Succurro, A; Sugaya, Y; Suhr, C; Suk, M; Sulin, V V; Sultansoy, S; Sumida, T; Sun, S; Sun, X; Sundermann, J E; Suruliz, K; Susinno, G; Sutton, M R; Suzuki, Y; Svatos, M; Swedish, S; Swiatlowski, M; Sykora, I; Sykora, T; Ta, D; Taccini, C; Tackmann, K; Taenzer, J; Taffard, A; Tafirout, R; Taiblum, N; Takai, H; Takashima, R; Takeda, H; Takeshita, T; Takubo, Y; Talby, M; Talyshev, A A; Tam, J Y C; Tan, K G; Tanaka, J; Tanaka, R; Tanaka, S; Tanaka, S; Tanasijczuk, A J; Tannenwald, B B; Tannoury, N; Tapprogge, S; Tarem, S; Tarrade, F; Tartarelli, G F; Tas, P; Tasevsky, M; Tashiro, T; Tassi, E; Tavares Delgado, A; Tayalati, Y; Taylor, F E; Taylor, G N; Taylor, W; Teischinger, F A; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, M; Teixeira-Dias, P; Temming, K K; Ten Kate, H; Teng, P K; Teoh, J J; Terada, S; Terashi, K; Terron, J; Terzo, S; Testa, M; Teuscher, R J; Therhaag, J; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T; Thomas, J P; Thomas-Wilsker, J; Thompson, E N; Thompson, P D; Thompson, P D; Thompson, R J; Thompson, A S; Thomsen, L A; Thomson, E; Thomson, M; Thong, W M; Thun, R P; Tian, F; Tibbetts, M J; Tikhomirov, V O; Tikhonov, Yu A; Timoshenko, S; Tiouchichine, E; Tipton, P; Tisserant, S; Todorov, T; Todorova-Nova, S; Toggerson, B; Tojo, J; Tokár, S; Tokushuku, K; Tollefson, K; Tolley, E; Tomlinson, L; Tomoto, M; Tompkins, L; Toms, K; Topilin, N D; Torrence, E; Torres, H; Torró Pastor, E; Toth, J; Touchard, F; Tovey, D R; Tran, H L; Trefzger, T; Tremblet, L; Tricoli, A; Trigger, I M; Trincaz-Duvoid, S; Tripiana, M F; Trischuk, W; Trocmé, B; Troncon, C; Trottier-McDonald, M; Trovatelli, M; True, P; Trzebinski, M; Trzupek, A; Tsarouchas, C; Tseng, J C-L; Tsiareshka, P V; Tsionou, D; Tsipolitis, G; Tsirintanis, N; Tsiskaridze, S; Tsiskaridze, V; Tskhadadze, E G; Tsukerman, I I; Tsulaia, V; Tsuno, S; Tsybychev, D; Tudorache, A; Tudorache, V; Tuna, A N; Tupputi, S A; Turchikhin, S; Turecek, D; Turk Cakir, I; Turra, R; Tuts, P M; Tykhonov, A; Tylmad, M; Tyndel, M; Uchida, K; Ueda, I; Ueno, R; 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A measurement of charged-particle distributions sensitive to the properties of the underlying event is presented for an inclusive sample of events containing a [Formula: see text]-boson, decaying to an electron or muon pair. The measurement is based on data collected using the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of [Formula: see text] TeV with an integrated luminosity of [Formula: see text] fb[Formula: see text]. Distributions of the charged particle multiplicity and of the charged particle transverse momentum are measured in regions of azimuthal angle defined with respect to the [Formula: see text]-boson direction. The measured distributions are compared to similar distributions measured in jet events, and to the predictions of various Monte Carlo generators implementing different underlying event models.

Measurement of distributions sensitive to the underlying event in inclusive Z-boson production in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.

2014-12-10

A measurement of charged-particle distributions sensitive to the properties of the underlying event is presented for an inclusive sample of events containing a \\(Z\\)-boson, decaying to an electron or muon pair. The measurement is based on data collected using the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of \\(7\\) TeV with an integrated luminosity of \\(4.6\\) fb\\(^{-1}\\). Distributions of the charged particle multiplicity and of the charged particle transverse momentum are measured in regions of azimuthal angle defined with respect to the \\(Z\\)-boson direction. As a result, the measured distributions are compared to similar distributionsmore » measured in jet events, and to the predictions of various Monte Carlo generators implementing different underlying event models.« less

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

Detection of Impaired Cerebral Autoregulation Using Selected Correlation Analysis: A Validation Study

PubMed Central

Brawanski, Alexander

2017-01-01

Multimodal brain monitoring has been utilized to optimize treatment of patients with critical neurological diseases. However, the amount of data requires an integrative tool set to unmask pathological events in a timely fashion. Recently we have introduced a mathematical model allowing the simulation of pathophysiological conditions such as reduced intracranial compliance and impaired autoregulation. Utilizing a mathematical tool set called selected correlation analysis (sca), correlation patterns, which indicate impaired autoregulation, can be detected in patient data sets (scp). In this study we compared the results of the sca with the pressure reactivity index (PRx), an established marker for impaired autoregulation. Mean PRx values were significantly higher in time segments identified as scp compared to segments showing no selected correlations (nsc). The sca based approach predicted cerebral autoregulation failure with a sensitivity of 78.8% and a specificity of 62.6%. Autoregulation failure, as detected by the results of both analysis methods, was significantly correlated with poor outcome. Sca of brain monitoring data detects impaired autoregulation with high sensitivity and sufficient specificity. Since the sca approach allows the simultaneous detection of both major pathological conditions, disturbed autoregulation and reduced compliance, it may become a useful analysis tool for brain multimodal monitoring data. PMID:28255331

Detection of Impaired Cerebral Autoregulation Using Selected Correlation Analysis: A Validation Study.

PubMed

Proescholdt, Martin A; Faltermeier, Rupert; Bele, Sylvia; Brawanski, Alexander

2017-01-01

Multimodal brain monitoring has been utilized to optimize treatment of patients with critical neurological diseases. However, the amount of data requires an integrative tool set to unmask pathological events in a timely fashion. Recently we have introduced a mathematical model allowing the simulation of pathophysiological conditions such as reduced intracranial compliance and impaired autoregulation. Utilizing a mathematical tool set called selected correlation analysis (sca), correlation patterns, which indicate impaired autoregulation, can be detected in patient data sets (scp). In this study we compared the results of the sca with the pressure reactivity index (PRx), an established marker for impaired autoregulation. Mean PRx values were significantly higher in time segments identified as scp compared to segments showing no selected correlations (nsc). The sca based approach predicted cerebral autoregulation failure with a sensitivity of 78.8% and a specificity of 62.6%. Autoregulation failure, as detected by the results of both analysis methods, was significantly correlated with poor outcome. Sca of brain monitoring data detects impaired autoregulation with high sensitivity and sufficient specificity. Since the sca approach allows the simultaneous detection of both major pathological conditions, disturbed autoregulation and reduced compliance, it may become a useful analysis tool for brain multimodal monitoring data.

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Skin Sensitization Hazard in Humans

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s highest priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative me...

Multivariate models for skin sensitization hazard and potency

EPA Science Inventory

One of the top priorities being addressed by ICCVAM is the identification and validation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathw...

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative method...

Study of Photon Emission with the Fission Event Generator FREYA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Ramona; Randrup, Jorgen

2017-09-01

The event-by-event fission model FREYA is employed to study photon observables. The model has been expanded beyond the simple statistical photon emission reported previously to include the discrete RIPL-3 lines. We update these prior results and discuss the sensitivity of the results to the FREYA input parameters sensitive to photon observables. The work of R.V. was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by LLNL Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, that of J.R. by LBNL Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors thank NNSA Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation R&D for support.

Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: global change and management implications.

PubMed

Sánchez-Canales, M; López-Benito, A; Acuña, V; Ziv, G; Hamel, P; Chaplin-Kramer, R; Elorza, F J

2015-01-01

Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emotional sensitization highlights the attentional bias in blood-injection-injury phobics: an ERP study.

PubMed

Sarlo, Michela; Buodo, Giulia; Devigili, Andrea; Munafò, Marianna; Palomba, Daniela

2011-02-18

The presence of an attentional bias towards disorder-related stimuli has not been consistently demonstrated in blood phobics. The present study was aimed at investigating whether or not an attentional bias, as measured by event-related potentials (ERPs), could be highlighted in blood phobics by inducing cognitive-emotional sensitization through the repetitive presentation of different disorder-related pictures. The mean amplitudes of the N100, P200, P300 and late positive potentials to picture onset were assessed along with subjective ratings of valence and arousal in 13 blood phobics and 12 healthy controls. Blood phobics, but not controls, showed a linear increase of subjective arousal over time, suggesting that cognitive-emotional sensitization did occur. The analysis of cortical responses showed larger N100 and smaller late positive potentials in phobics than in controls in response to mutilations. These findings suggest that cognitive-emotional sensitization induced an attentional bias in blood phobics during picture viewing, involving early selective encoding and late cognitive avoidance of disorder-related stimuli depicting mutilations. © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and Temporal Signatures of Flux Transfer Events in Global Simulations of Magnetopause Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Sibeck, David Gary; Hesse, Michael; Berrios, David; Rastaetter, Lutz; Toth, Gabor; Gombosi, Tamas I.

2011-01-01

Flux transfer events (FTEs) were originally identified by transient bipolar variations of the magnetic field component normal to the nominal magnetopause centered on enhancements in the total magnetic field strength. Recent Cluster and THEMIS multi-point measurements provided a wide range of signatures that are interpreted as evidence for FTE passage (e.g., crater FTE's, traveling magnetic erosion regions). We use the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code BATS-R-US developed at the University of Michigan to model the global three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of FTEs during multi-spacecraft magnetopause crossing events. Comparison of observed and simulated signatures and sensitivity analysis of the results to the probe location will be presented. We will demonstrate a variety of observable signatures in magnetic field profile that depend on space probe location with respect to the FTE passage. The global structure of FTEs will be illustrated using advanced visualization tools developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Sensor readout detector circuit

DOEpatents

Chu, Dahlon D.; Thelen, Jr., Donald C.

1998-01-01

A sensor readout detector circuit is disclosed that is capable of detecting sensor signals down to a few nanoamperes or less in a high (microampere) background noise level. The circuit operates at a very low standby power level and is triggerable by a sensor event signal that is above a predetermined threshold level. A plurality of sensor readout detector circuits can be formed on a substrate as an integrated circuit (IC). These circuits can operate to process data from an array of sensors in parallel, with only data from active sensors being processed for digitization and analysis. This allows the IC to operate at a low power level with a high data throughput for the active sensors. The circuit may be used with many different types of sensors, including photodetectors, capacitance sensors, chemically-sensitive sensors or combinations thereof to provide a capability for recording transient events or for recording data for a predetermined period of time following an event trigger. The sensor readout detector circuit has applications for portable or satellite-based sensor systems.

Sensor readout detector circuit

DOEpatents

Chu, D.D.; Thelen, D.C. Jr.

1998-08-11

A sensor readout detector circuit is disclosed that is capable of detecting sensor signals down to a few nanoamperes or less in a high (microampere) background noise level. The circuit operates at a very low standby power level and is triggerable by a sensor event signal that is above a predetermined threshold level. A plurality of sensor readout detector circuits can be formed on a substrate as an integrated circuit (IC). These circuits can operate to process data from an array of sensors in parallel, with only data from active sensors being processed for digitization and analysis. This allows the IC to operate at a low power level with a high data throughput for the active sensors. The circuit may be used with many different types of sensors, including photodetectors, capacitance sensors, chemically-sensitive sensors or combinations thereof to provide a capability for recording transient events or for recording data for a predetermined period of time following an event trigger. The sensor readout detector circuit has applications for portable or satellite-based sensor systems. 6 figs.

Syntactic and semantic processing of Chinese middle sentences: evidence from event-related potentials.

PubMed

Zeng, Tao; Mao, Wen; Lu, Qing

2016-05-25

Scalp-recorded event-related potentials are known to be sensitive to particular aspects of sentence processing. The N400 component is widely recognized as an effect closely related to lexical-semantic processing. The absence of an N400 effect in participants performing tasks in Indo-European languages has been considered evidence that failed syntactic category processing appears to block lexical-semantic integration and that syntactic structure building is a prerequisite of semantic analysis. An event-related potential experiment was designed to investigate whether such syntactic primacy can be considered to apply equally to Chinese sentence processing. Besides correct middles, sentences with either single semantic or single syntactic violation as well as double syntactic and semantic anomaly were used in the present research. Results showed that both purely semantic and combined violation induced a broad negativity in the time window 300-500 ms, indicating the independence of lexical-semantic integration. These findings provided solid evidence that lexical-semantic parsing plays a crucial role in Chinese sentence comprehension.

Modeling ozone episodes in the Baltimore-Washington region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, William F.

1994-01-01

Surface ozone (O3) concentrations in excess of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) continue to occur in metropolitan areas in the United States despite efforts to control emissions of O3 precursors. Future O3 control strategies will be based on results from modeling efforts that have just begun in many areas. Two initial questions that arise are model sensitivity to domain-specific conditions and the selection of episodes for model evaluation and control strategy development. For the Baltimore-Washington region (B-W), the presence of the Chesapeake Bay introduces a number of issues relevant to model sensitivity. In this paper, the specific questions of the determination of model volume (mixing height) for the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is discussed and various alternative methods compared. For the latter question, several analytic approaches, Cluster Analysis and classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis are undertaken to determine meteorological conditions associated with severe O3 events in the B-W domain.

Covariant Evolutionary Event Analysis for Base Interaction Prediction Using a Relational Database Management System for RNA.

PubMed

Xu, Weijia; Ozer, Stuart; Gutell, Robin R

2009-01-01

With an increasingly large amount of sequences properly aligned, comparative sequence analysis can accurately identify not only common structures formed by standard base pairing but also new types of structural elements and constraints. However, traditional methods are too computationally expensive to perform well on large scale alignment and less effective with the sequences from diversified phylogenetic classifications. We propose a new approach that utilizes coevolutional rates among pairs of nucleotide positions using phylogenetic and evolutionary relationships of the organisms of aligned sequences. With a novel data schema to manage relevant information within a relational database, our method, implemented with a Microsoft SQL Server 2005, showed 90% sensitivity in identifying base pair interactions among 16S ribosomal RNA sequences from Bacteria, at a scale 40 times bigger and 50% better sensitivity than a previous study. The results also indicated covariation signals for a few sets of cross-strand base stacking pairs in secondary structure helices, and other subtle constraints in the RNA structure.

Covariant Evolutionary Event Analysis for Base Interaction Prediction Using a Relational Database Management System for RNA

PubMed Central

Xu, Weijia; Ozer, Stuart; Gutell, Robin R.

2010-01-01

With an increasingly large amount of sequences properly aligned, comparative sequence analysis can accurately identify not only common structures formed by standard base pairing but also new types of structural elements and constraints. However, traditional methods are too computationally expensive to perform well on large scale alignment and less effective with the sequences from diversified phylogenetic classifications. We propose a new approach that utilizes coevolutional rates among pairs of nucleotide positions using phylogenetic and evolutionary relationships of the organisms of aligned sequences. With a novel data schema to manage relevant information within a relational database, our method, implemented with a Microsoft SQL Server 2005, showed 90% sensitivity in identifying base pair interactions among 16S ribosomal RNA sequences from Bacteria, at a scale 40 times bigger and 50% better sensitivity than a previous study. The results also indicated covariation signals for a few sets of cross-strand base stacking pairs in secondary structure helices, and other subtle constraints in the RNA structure. PMID:20502534

Characterization of a neutron sensitive MCP/Timepix detector for quantitative image analysis at a pulsed neutron source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Kenichi; Minniti, Triestino; Kockelmann, Winfried; Dalgliesh, Robert; Burca, Genoveva; Tremsin, Anton S.

2017-07-01

The uncertainties and the stability of a neutron sensitive MCP/Timepix detector when operating in the event timing mode for quantitative image analysis at a pulsed neutron source were investigated. The dominant component to the uncertainty arises from the counting statistics. The contribution of the overlap correction to the uncertainty was concluded to be negligible from considerations based on the error propagation even if a pixel occupation probability is more than 50%. We, additionally, have taken into account the multiple counting effect in consideration of the counting statistics. Furthermore, the detection efficiency of this detector system changes under relatively high neutron fluxes due to the ageing effects of current Microchannel Plates. Since this efficiency change is position-dependent, it induces a memory image. The memory effect can be significantly reduced with correction procedures using the rate equations describing the permanent gain degradation and the scrubbing effect on the inner surfaces of the MCP pores.

Linear stability analysis of scramjet unstart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Ik; Nichols, Joseph; Moin, Parviz

2015-11-01

We investigate the bifurcation structure of unstart and restart events in a dual-mode scramjet using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The scramjet of interest (HyShot II, Laurence et al., AIAA2011-2310) operates at a free-stream Mach number of approximately 8, and the length of the combustor chamber is 300mm. A heat-release model is applied to mimic the combustion process. Pseudo-arclength continuation with Newton-Raphson iteration is used to calculate multiple solution branches. Stability analysis based on linearized dynamics about the solution curves reveals a metric that optimally forewarns unstart. By combining direct and adjoint eigenmodes, structural sensitivity analysis suggests strategies for unstart mitigation, including changing the isolator length. This work is supported by DOE/NNSA and AFOSR.

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France.

PubMed

Bronner, Anne; Gay, Emilie; Fortané, Nicolas; Palussière, Mathilde; Hendrikx, Pascal; Hénaux, Viviane; Calavas, Didier

2015-06-01

Bovine abortion is the main clinical sign of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which France has been declared officially free since 2005. To ensure the early detection of any brucellosis outbreak, event-driven surveillance relies on the mandatory notification of bovine abortions and the brucellosis testing of aborting cows. However, the under-reporting of abortions appears frequent. Our objectives were to assess the aptitude of the bovine abortion surveillance system to detect each and every bovine abortion and to identify factors influencing the system's effectiveness. We evaluated five attributes defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control with a method suited to each attribute: (1) data quality was studied quantitatively and qualitatively, as this factor considerably influences data analysis and results; (2) sensitivity and representativeness were estimated using a unilist capture-recapture approach to quantify the surveillance system's effectiveness; (3) acceptability and simplicity were studied through qualitative interviews of actors in the field, given that the surveillance system relies heavily on abortion notifications by farmers and veterinarians. Our analysis showed that (1) data quality was generally satisfactory even though some errors might be due to actors' lack of awareness of the need to collect accurate data; (2) from 2006 to 2011, the mean annual sensitivity - i.e. the proportion of farmers who reported at least one abortion out of all those who detected such events - was around 34%, but was significantly higher in dairy than beef cattle herds (highlighting a lack of representativeness); (3) overall, the system's low sensitivity was related to its low acceptability and lack of simplicity. This study showed that, in contrast to policy-makers, most farmers and veterinarians perceived the risk of a brucellosis outbreak as negligible. They did not consider sporadic abortions as a suspected case of brucellosis and usually reported abortions only to identify their cause rather than to reject brucellosis. The system proved too complex, especially for beef cattle farmers, as they may fail to detect aborting cows at pasture or have difficulties catching them for sampling. By investigating critical attributes, our evaluation highlighted the surveillance system's strengths and needed improvements. We believe our comprehensive approach can be used to assess other event-driven surveillance systems. In addition, some of our recommendations on increasing the effectiveness of event-driven brucellosis surveillance may be useful in improving the notification rate for suspected cases of other exotic diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factor Xa inhibitors versus vitamin K antagonists for preventing cerebral or systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Bruins Slot, Karsten Mh; Berge, Eivind

2018-03-06

Factor Xa inhibitors and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) are now recommended in treatment guidelines for preventing stroke and systemic embolic events in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). This is an update of a Cochrane review previously published in 2013. To assess the effectiveness and safety of treatment with factor Xa inhibitors versus VKAs for preventing cerebral or systemic embolic events in people with AF. We searched the trials registers of the Cochrane Stroke Group and the Cochrane Heart Group (September 2016), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (August 2017), MEDLINE (1950 to April 2017), and Embase (1980 to April 2017). We also contacted pharmaceutical companies, authors and sponsors of relevant published trials. We used outcome data from marketing authorisation applications of apixaban, edoxaban and rivaroxaban that were submitted to regulatory authorities in Europe and the USA. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that directly compared the effects of long-term treatment (lasting more than four weeks) with factor Xa inhibitors versus VKAs for preventing cerebral and systemic embolism in people with AF. The primary efficacy outcome was the composite endpoint of all strokes and systemic embolic events. Two review authors independently extracted data, and assessed the quality of the trials and the risk of bias. We calculated a weighted estimate of the typical treatment effect across trials using the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) by means of a fixed-effect model. In case of moderate or high heterogeneity of treatment effects, we used a random-effects model to compare the overall treatment effects. We also performed a pre-specified sensitivity analysis excluding any open-label studies. We included data from 67,688 participants randomised into 13 RCTs. The included trials directly compared dose-adjusted warfarin with either apixaban, betrixaban, darexaban, edoxaban, idraparinux, idrabiotaparinux, or rivaroxaban. The majority of the included data (approximately 90%) was from apixaban, edoxaban, and rivaroxaban.The composite primary efficacy endpoint of all strokes (both ischaemic and haemorrhagic) and non-central nervous systemic embolic events was reported in all of the included studies. Treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor significantly decreased the number of strokes and systemic embolic events compared with dose-adjusted warfarin in participants with AF (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97; 13 studies; 67,477 participants; high-quality evidence).Treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor significantly reduced the number of major bleedings compared with warfarin (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.84; 13 studies; 67,396 participants; moderate-quality evidence). There was, however, statistically significant and high heterogeneity (I 2 = 83%). When we repeated this analysis using a random-effects model, it did not show a statistically significant decrease in the number of major bleedings (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.17). A pre-specified sensitivity analysis excluding all open-label studies showed that treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor significantly reduced the number of major bleedings compared with warfarin (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.81), but high heterogeneity was also observed in this analysis (I 2 = 72%). The same sensitivity analysis using a random-effects model also showed a statistically significant decrease in the number of major bleedings in participants treated with factor Xa inhibitors (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96).Treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor significantly reduced the risk of intracranial haemorrhages (ICHs) compared with warfarin (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.59; 12 studies; 66,259 participants; high-quality evidence). We observed moderate, but statistically significant heterogeneity (I 2 = 55%). The pre-specified sensitivity analysis excluding open-label studies showed that treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor significantly reduced the number of ICHs compared with warfarin (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.56), with low, non-statistically significant heterogeneity (I 2 = 27%).Treatment with a factor Xa inhibitor also significantly reduced the number of all-cause deaths compared with warfarin (OR 0.89, 95% 0.83 to 0.95; 10 studies; 65,624 participants; moderate-quality evidence). Treatment with factor Xa inhibitors significantly reduced the number of strokes and systemic embolic events compared with warfarin in people with AF. The absolute effect of factor Xa inhibitors compared with warfarin treatment was, however, rather small. Factor Xa inhibitors also reduced the number of ICHs, all-cause deaths and major bleedings compared with warfarin, although the evidence for a reduction in the latter is less robust.

Novel surgical performance evaluation approximates Standardized Incidence Ratio with high accuracy at simple means.

PubMed

Gabbay, Itay E; Gabbay, Uri

2013-01-01

Excess adverse events may be attributable to poor surgical performance but also to case-mix, which is controlled through the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR). SIR calculations can be complicated, resource consuming, and unfeasible in some settings. This article suggests a novel method for SIR approximation. In order to evaluate a potential SIR surrogate measure we predefined acceptance criteria. We developed a new measure - Approximate Risk Index (ARI). "Number Needed for Event" (NNE) is the theoretical number of patients needed "to produce" one adverse event. ARI is defined as the quotient of the group of patients needed for no observed events Ge by total patients treated Ga. Our evaluation compared 2500 surgical units and over 3 million heterogeneous risk surgical patients that were induced through a computerized simulation. Surgical unit's data were computed for SIR and ARI to evaluate compliance with the predefined criteria. Approximation was evaluated by correlation analysis and performance prediction capability by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. ARI strongly correlates with SIR (r(2) = 0.87, p < 0.05). ARI prediction of excessive risk revealed excellent ROC (Area Under the Curve > 0.9) 87% sensitivity and 91% specificity. ARI provides good approximation of SIR and excellent prediction capability. ARI is simple and cost-effective as it requires thorough risk evaluation of only the adverse events patients. ARI can provide a crucial screening and performance evaluation quality control tool. The ARI method may suit other clinical and epidemiological settings where relatively small fraction of the entire population is affected. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A semi-automated method for rapid detection of ripple events on interictal voltage discharges in the scalp electroencephalogram.

PubMed

Chu, Catherine J; Chan, Arthur; Song, Dan; Staley, Kevin J; Stufflebeam, Steven M; Kramer, Mark A

2017-02-01

High frequency oscillations are emerging as a clinically important indicator of epileptic networks. However, manual detection of these high frequency oscillations is difficult, time consuming, and subjective, especially in the scalp EEG, thus hindering further clinical exploration and application. Semi-automated detection methods augment manual detection by reducing inspection to a subset of time intervals. We propose a new method to detect high frequency oscillations that co-occur with interictal epileptiform discharges. The new method proceeds in two steps. The first step identifies candidate time intervals during which high frequency activity is increased. The second step computes a set of seven features for each candidate interval. These features require that the candidate event contain a high frequency oscillation approximately sinusoidal in shape, with at least three cycles, that co-occurs with a large amplitude discharge. Candidate events that satisfy these features are stored for validation through visual analysis. We evaluate the detector performance in simulation and on ten examples of scalp EEG data, and show that the proposed method successfully detects spike-ripple events, with high positive predictive value, low false positive rate, and high intra-rater reliability. The proposed method is less sensitive than the existing method of visual inspection, but much faster and much more reliable. Accurate and rapid detection of high frequency activity increases the clinical viability of this rhythmic biomarker of epilepsy. The proposed spike-ripple detector rapidly identifies candidate spike-ripple events, thus making clinical analysis of prolonged, multielectrode scalp EEG recordings tractable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A semi-automated method for rapid detection of ripple events on interictal voltage discharges in the scalp electroencephalogram

PubMed Central

Chu, Catherine. J.; Chan, Arthur; Song, Dan; Staley, Kevin J.; Stufflebeam, Steven M.; Kramer, Mark A.

2017-01-01

Summary Background High frequency oscillations are emerging as a clinically important indicator of epileptic networks. However, manual detection of these high frequency oscillations is difficult, time consuming, and subjective, especially in the scalp EEG, thus hindering further clinical exploration and application. Semi-automated detection methods augment manual detection by reducing inspection to a subset of time intervals. We propose a new method to detect high frequency oscillations that co-occur with interictal epileptiform discharges. New Method The new method proceeds in two steps. The first step identifies candidate time intervals during which high frequency activity is increased. The second step computes a set of seven features for each candidate interval. These features require that the candidate event contain a high frequency oscillation approximately sinusoidal in shape, with at least three cycles, that co-occurs with a large amplitude discharge. Candidate events that satisfy these features are stored for validation through visual analysis. Results We evaluate the detector performance in simulation and on ten examples of scalp EEG data, and show that the proposed method successfully detects spike-ripple events, with high positive predictive value, low false positive rate, and high intra-rater reliability. Comparison with Existing Method The proposed method is less sensitive than the existing method of visual inspection, but much faster and much more reliable. Conclusions Accurate and rapid detection of high frequency activity increases the clinical viability of this rhythmic biomarker of epilepsy. The proposed spike-ripple detector rapidly identifies candidate spike-ripple events, thus making clinical analysis of prolonged, multielectrode scalp EEG recordings tractable. PMID:27988323

Single top quark photoproduction at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Favereau de Jeneret, J.; Ovyn, S.

2008-08-01

High-energy photon-proton interactions at the LHC offer interesting possibilities for the study of the electroweak sector up to TeV scale and searches for processes beyond the Standard Model. An analysis of the W associated single top photoproduction has been performed using the adapted MadGraph/MadEvent [F. Maltoni and T. Stelzer, JHEP 0302, (2003) 027; T. Stelzer and W.F. Long, Phys. Commun. 81, (1994) 357-371] and CalcHEP [A. Pukhov, Nucl. Inst. Meth A 502, (2003) 596-598] programs interfaced to the Pythia [T. Sjöstrand et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 135, (2001) 238] generator and a fast detector simulation program. Event selection and suppression of main backgrounds have been studied. A comparable sensitivity to |V| to those obtained using the standard single top production in pp collisions has been achieved already for 10 fb of integrated luminosity. Photoproduction at the LHC provides also an attractive framework for observation of the anomalous production of single top due to Flavour-Changing Neutral Currents. The sensitivity to anomalous coupling parameters, k and k is presented and indicates that stronger limits can be placed on anomalous couplings after 1 fb.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Daniel Rios Pinto; Ramos, Adriane Monserrat; Vieira, Pedro Lima; Menti, Eduardo; Bordin, Odemir Luiz; de Souza, Priscilla Azambuja Lopes; de Quadros, Alexandre Schaan; Portal, Vera Lúcia

2014-01-01

Background The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality. PMID:25120085

Electrophysiological Correlates of Individual Differences in Perception of Audiovisual Temporal Asynchrony

PubMed Central

Kaganovich, Natalya; Schumaker, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Sensitivity to the temporal relationship between auditory and visual stimuli is key to efficient audiovisual integration. However, even adults vary greatly in their ability to detect audiovisual temporal asynchrony. What underlies this variability is currently unknown. We recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) while participants performed a simultaneity judgment task on a range of audiovisual (AV) and visual-auditory (VA) stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs) and compared ERP responses in good and poor performers to the 200 ms SOA, which showed the largest individual variability in the number of synchronous perceptions. Analysis of ERPs to the VA200 stimulus yielded no significant results. However, those individuals who were more sensitive to the AV200 SOA had significantly more positive voltage between 210 and 270 ms following the sound onset. In a follow-up analysis, we showed that the mean voltage within this window predicted approximately 36% of variability in sensitivity to AV temporal asynchrony in a larger group of participants. The relationship between the ERP measure in the 210-270 ms window and accuracy on the simultaneity judgment task also held for two other AV SOAs with significant individual variability - 100 and 300 ms. Because the identified window was time-locked to the onset of sound in the AV stimulus, we conclude that sensitivity to AV temporal asynchrony is shaped to a large extent by the efficiency in the neural encoding of sound onsets. PMID:27094850

Tidal Disruption Events Across Cosmic Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fialkov, Anastasia; Loeb, Abraham

2017-01-01

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) of stars by single or binary super-massive black holes illuminate the environment around quiescent black holes in galactic nuclei allowing to probe dorment black holes. We predict the TDE rates expected to be detected by next-generation X-ray surveys. We include events sourced by both single and binary super-massive black holes assuming that 10% of TDEs lead to the formation of relativistic jets and are therefore observable to higher redshifts. Assigning the Eddington luminosity to each event, we show that if the occupation fraction of intermediate black holes is high, more than 90% of the brightest TDE might be associated with merging black holes which are potential sources for eLISA. Next generation telescopes with improved sensitivities should probe dim local TDE events as well as bright events at high redshifts. We show that an instrument which is 50 times more sensitive than the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is expected to trigger ~10 times more events than BAT. Majority of these events originate at low redshifts (z<0.5) if the occupation fraction of IMBHs is high and at high-redshift (z>2) if it is low.

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single in chemico, in vit...

CAFNA{reg{underscore}sign}, coded aperture fast neutron analysis for contraband detection: Preliminary results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, L.; Lanza, R.C.

1999-12-01

The authors have developed a near field coded aperture imaging system for use with fast neutron techniques as a tool for the detection of contraband and hidden explosives through nuclear elemental analysis. The technique relies on the prompt gamma rays produced by fast neutron interactions with the object being examined. The position of the nuclear elements is determined by the location of the gamma emitters. For existing fast neutron techniques, in Pulsed Fast Neutron Analysis (PFNA), neutrons are used with very low efficiency; in Fast Neutron Analysis (FNS), the sensitivity for detection of the signature gamma rays is very low.more » For the Coded Aperture Fast Neutron Analysis (CAFNA{reg{underscore}sign}) the authors have developed, the efficiency for both using the probing fast neutrons and detecting the prompt gamma rays is high. For a probed volume of n{sup 3} volume elements (voxels) in a cube of n resolution elements on a side, they can compare the sensitivity with other neutron probing techniques. As compared to PFNA, the improvement for neutron utilization is n{sup 2}, where the total number of voxels in the object being examined is n{sup 3}. Compared to FNA, the improvement for gamma-ray imaging is proportional to the total open area of the coded aperture plane; a typical value is n{sup 2}/2, where n{sup 2} is the number of total detector resolution elements or the number of pixels in an object layer. It should be noted that the actual signal to noise ratio of a system depends also on the nature and distribution of background events and this comparison may reduce somewhat the effective sensitivity of CAFNA. They have performed analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, and preliminary experiments using low and high energy gamma-ray sources. The results show that a high sensitivity 3-D contraband imaging and detection system can be realized by using CAFNA.« less

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-integrated directional detection of dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hare, Ciaran A. J.; Kavanagh, Bradley J.; Green, Anne M.

2017-10-01

The analysis of signals in directional dark matter (DM) detectors typically assumes that the directions of nuclear recoils can be measured in the Galactic rest frame. However, this is not possible with all directional detection technologies. In nuclear emulsions, for example, the recoil events must be detected and measured after the exposure time of the experiment. Unless the entire detector is mounted and rotated with the sidereal day, the recoils cannot be reoriented in the Galactic rest frame. We examine the effect of this "time integration" on the primary goals of directional detection, namely: (1) confirming that the recoils are anisotropic; (2) measuring the median recoil direction to confirm their Galactic origin; and (3) probing below the neutrino floor. We show that after time integration the DM recoil distribution retains a preferred direction and is distinct from that of Solar neutrino-induced recoils. Many of the advantages of directional detection are therefore preserved and it is not crucial to mount and rotate the detector. Rejecting isotropic backgrounds requires a factor of 2 more signal events compared with an experiment with event time information, whereas a factor of 1.5-3 more events are needed to measure a median direction in agreement with the expectation for DM. We also find that there is still effectively no neutrino floor in a time-integrated directional experiment. However to reach a cross section an order of magnitude below the floor, a factor of ˜8 larger exposure is required than with a conventional directional experiment. We also examine how the sensitivity is affected for detectors with only 2D recoil track readout, and/or no head-tail measurement. As for non-time-integrated experiments, 2D readout is not a major disadvantage, though a lack of head-tail sensitivity is.

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; Wehner, Michael; Shiogama, Hideo; Wolski, Piotr; Ciavarella, Andrew; Christidis, Nikolaos

2018-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporal scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah

In the context of continuing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporalmore » scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.« less

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; ...

2017-06-17

In the context of continuing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporalmore » scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.« less

Single Event Burnout in DC-DC Converters for the LHC Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Claudio H. Rivetta et al.

High voltage transistors in DC-DC converters are prone to catastrophic Single Event Burnout in the LHC radiation environment. This paper presents a systematic methodology to analyze single event effects sensitivity in converters and proposes solutions based on de-rating input voltage and output current or voltage.

Recognising safety critical events: can automatic video processing improve naturalistic data analyses?

PubMed

Dozza, Marco; González, Nieves Pañeda

2013-11-01

New trends in research on traffic accidents include Naturalistic Driving Studies (NDS). NDS are based on large scale data collection of driver, vehicle, and environment information in real world. NDS data sets have proven to be extremely valuable for the analysis of safety critical events such as crashes and near crashes. However, finding safety critical events in NDS data is often difficult and time consuming. Safety critical events are currently identified using kinematic triggers, for instance searching for deceleration below a certain threshold signifying harsh braking. Due to the low sensitivity and specificity of this filtering procedure, manual review of video data is currently necessary to decide whether the events identified by the triggers are actually safety critical. Such reviewing procedure is based on subjective decisions, is expensive and time consuming, and often tedious for the analysts. Furthermore, since NDS data is exponentially growing over time, this reviewing procedure may not be viable anymore in the very near future. This study tested the hypothesis that automatic processing of driver video information could increase the correct classification of safety critical events from kinematic triggers in naturalistic driving data. Review of about 400 video sequences recorded from the events, collected by 100 Volvo cars in the euroFOT project, suggested that drivers' individual reaction may be the key to recognize safety critical events. In fact, whether an event is safety critical or not often depends on the individual driver. A few algorithms, able to automatically classify driver reaction from video data, have been compared. The results presented in this paper show that the state of the art subjective review procedures to identify safety critical events from NDS can benefit from automated objective video processing. In addition, this paper discusses the major challenges in making such video analysis viable for future NDS and new potential applications for NDS video processing. As new NDS such as SHRP2 are now providing the equivalent of five years of one vehicle data each day, the development of new methods, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems necessary to guarantee that these data can actually be analysed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RoboTAP: Target priorities for robotic microlensing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hundertmark, M.; Street, R. A.; Tsapras, Y.; Bachelet, E.; Dominik, M.; Horne, K.; Bozza, V.; Bramich, D. M.; Cassan, A.; D'Ago, G.; Figuera Jaimes, R.; Kains, N.; Ranc, C.; Schmidt, R. W.; Snodgrass, C.; Wambsganss, J.; Steele, I. A.; Mao, S.; Ment, K.; Menzies, J.; Li, Z.; Cross, S.; Maoz, D.; Shvartzvald, Y.

2018-01-01

Context. The ability to automatically select scientifically-important transient events from an alert stream of many such events, and to conduct follow-up observations in response, will become increasingly important in astronomy. With wide-angle time domain surveys pushing to fainter limiting magnitudes, the capability to follow-up on transient alerts far exceeds our follow-up telescope resources, and effective target prioritization becomes essential. The RoboNet-II microlensing program is a pathfinder project, which has developed an automated target selection process (RoboTAP) for gravitational microlensing events, which are observed in real time using the Las Cumbres Observatory telescope network. Aims: Follow-up telescopes typically have a much smaller field of view compared to surveys, therefore the most promising microlensing events must be automatically selected at any given time from an annual sample exceeding 2000 events. The main challenge is to select between events with a high planet detection sensitivity, with the aim of detecting many planets and characterizing planetary anomalies. Methods: Our target selection algorithm is a hybrid system based on estimates of the planet detection zones around a microlens. It follows automatic anomaly alerts and respects the expected survey coverage of specific events. Results: We introduce the RoboTAP algorithm, whose purpose is to select and prioritize microlensing events with high sensitivity to planetary companions. In this work, we determine the planet sensitivity of the RoboNet follow-up program and provide a working example of how a broker can be designed for a real-life transient science program conducting follow-up observations in response to alerts; we explore the issues that will confront similar programs being developed for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other time domain surveys.

Iron, manganese and phosphorus partitioning during high flow events: impacts of land cover and seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroth, A. W.

2015-12-01

Metals and phosphorous are essential micro and macronutrients in aquatic ecosystems, and redox sensitive colloidal and particulate metal (oxy)hydroxide phases can be particularly reactive carriers of solid phase P, as well as other nutrients and/or pollutants in riverine chemical loads. High flow events driven by storms and/or snow or glacial melt often dominate the annual load of such constituents, yet remain poorly understood from a biogeochemical perspective. Our research examines the biogeochemical nature of riverine metal and P loads during targeted high flow events to determine to what extent, and under what environmental conditions, are the concentration and biogeochemical composition of riverine loads of P, Fe, and Mn disproportionately high and relatively reactive v. inert. We present a suite of biogeochemical data derived from water and suspended sediment samples that were collected during these events in multiple catchments and over different seasons within the hydrologic year. We examine the size partitioning (particulate, colloidal, 'truly dissolved') of riverine Fe, Mn, and P during events in glaciated, boreal-forested, and agriculturalized catchments of Vermont and Alaska. Suspended sediment loads are also characterized by relative redox sensitivity to examine the potential reactivity of Fe, Mn, and P in sediment transported during particular events. We demonstrate that metal and P concentration, size partitioning, and redox sensitivity differs both seasonally and by land cover, which is due to different source environments and flow paths that are preferentially activated during high discharge. The conceptual model herein developed is critical to understanding the biogeochemical nature of event-based riverine loads, and how this could evolve with changing frequency and severity of high flow events or land cover associated with climate change and landscape management.

Recent climatic events controlling the hydrological and the aquifer dynamics at arid areas: The case of Huasco River watershed, northern Chile.

PubMed

Salas, I; Herrera, C; Luque, J A; Delgado, J; Urrutia, J; Jordan, T

2016-11-15

The investigation assesses the influence of recent climatic events in the water resources and the aquifer dynamics in the Huasco watershed by means of the analysis of precipitation, streamflow and piezometric levels during the last 50years. These hydrological and hydrogeological parameters were evaluated by an exploratory geostatistical analysis (semivariogram) and a spectral analysis (periodogram). Specifically, the hydrological and hydrogeological data analyses are organized according to three sub-basins, the Del Carmen River (Section I), the El Tránsito River (Section II), and the Huasco River (Section III). Data ranges for rainfall are from 1961 to 2015, for streamflow from 1964 to 2015, and for groundwater levels from 1969 to 2014, available from Water Authority of Chile. The analyses allowed the identification of cycles in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. The study area is located in a transient climatic fringe where the convergence of several climatic systems can be identified in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. Results indicate that the nival areas and the small glaciers are especially important to the recharge processes in the Huasco watershed during the spring-summer snowmelting. Water reservoirs in the main aquifer (Section III) and in the Santa Juana dam are highly sensitive to ENSO oscillation climatic patterns. The main climatic events that control this record are the El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, the climatic influence of the westerlies and the SE extratropical moisture were also identified. Spectral analysis identified the presence of a 22.9-yearcycle in piezometric levels of the alluvial aquifer of the Huasco River. This cycle is consistent with the 22-year Hale solar cycle, suggesting the existence of a solar forcing controlling the ENSO oscillations. Moreover, semivariogram and spectral analysis identified a 10.65-yearcycle and a 9.2-yearcycle in groundwater, respectively, which were attributed to the strong mode of ENSO oscillations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

2016-04-01

Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential events dating back several decades is analysed. Precipitation thresholds varying in space and time are established using highly resolved INCA data of the Austrian weather service. Parameters possibly controlling the basic susceptibility of catchments are evaluated in a regional GIS analysis (vegetation, geology, topography, stream network, proxies for sediment availability). Similarity measures are then used to group catchments into sensitivity classes. Applying different climate scenarios, the spatiotemporal distribution of catchments sensitive towards heavier and more frequent precipitation can be determined giving valuable advice for planning and managing mountain protection zones.

Optimal management of colorectal liver metastases in older patients: a decision analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Simon; Alibhai, Shabbir MH; Kennedy, Erin D; El-Sedfy, Abraham; Dixon, Matthew; Coburn, Natalie; Kiss, Alex; Law, Calvin HL

2014-01-01

Background Comparative trials evaluating management strategies for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CLM) are lacking, especially for older patients. This study developed a decision-analytic model to quantify outcomes associated with treatment strategies for CLM in older patients. Methods A Markov-decision model was built to examine the effect on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for best supportive care (BSC), systemic chemotherapy (SC), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and hepatic resection (HR). The baseline patient cohort assumptions included healthy 70-year-old CLM patients after a primary cancer resection. Event and transition probabilities and utilities were derived from a literature review. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed on all study parameters. Results In base case analysis, BSC, SC, RFA and HR yielded LEs of 11.9, 23.1, 34.8 and 37.0 months, and QALEs of 7.8, 13.2, 22.0 and 25.0 months, respectively. Model results were sensitive to age, comorbidity, length of model simulation and utility after HR. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed increasing preference for RFA over HR with increasing patient age. Conclusions HR may be optimal for healthy 70-year-old patients with CLM. In older patients with comorbidities, RFA may provide better LE and QALE. Treatment decisions in older cancer patients should account for patient age, comorbidities, local expertise and individual values. PMID:24961482

Electrochemical Quartz Crystal Nanobalance (EQCN) Based Biosensor for Sensitive Detection of Antibiotic Residues in Milk.

PubMed

Bhand, Sunil; Mishra, Geetesh K

2017-01-01

An electrochemical quartz crystal nanobalance (EQCN), which provides real-time analysis of dynamic surface events, is a valuable tool for analyzing biomolecular interactions. EQCN biosensors are based on mass-sensitive measurements that can detect small mass changes caused by chemical binding to small piezoelectric crystals. Among the various biosensors, the piezoelectric biosensor is considered one of the most sensitive analytical techniques, capable of detecting antigens at picogram levels. EQCN is an effective monitoring technique for regulation of the antibiotics below the maximum residual limit (MRL). The analysis of antibiotic residues requires high sensitivity, rapidity, reliability and cost effectiveness. For analytical purposes the general approach is to take advantage of the piezoelectric effect by immobilizing a biosensing layer on top of the piezoelectric crystal. The sensing layer usually comprises a biological material such as an antibody, enzymes, or aptamers having high specificity and selectivity for the target molecule to be detected. The biosensing layer is usually functionalized using surface chemistry modifications. When these bio-functionalized quartz crystals are exposed to a particular substance of interest (e.g., a substrate, inhibitor, antigen or protein), binding interaction occurs. This causes a frequency or mass change that can be used to determine the amount of material interacted or bound. EQCN biosensors can easily be automated by using a flow injection analysis (FIA) setup coupled through automated pumps and injection valves. Such FIA-EQCN biosensors have great potential for the detection of different analytes such as antibiotic residues in various matrices such as water, waste water, and milk.

Sensitivity analysis of tall buildings in Semarang, Indonesia due to fault earthquakes with maximum 7 Mw

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partono, Windu; Pardoyo, Bambang; Atmanto, Indrastono Dwi; Azizah, Lisa; Chintami, Rouli Dian

2017-11-01

Fault is one of the dangerous earthquake sources that can cause building failure. A lot of buildings were collapsed caused by Yogyakarta (2006) and Pidie (2016) fault source earthquakes with maximum magnitude 6.4 Mw. Following the research conducted by Team for Revision of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2010 and 2016, Lasem, Demak and Semarang faults are three closest earthquake sources surrounding Semarang. The ground motion from those three earthquake sources should be taken into account for structural design and evaluation. Most of tall buildings, with minimum 40 meter high, in Semarang were designed and constructed following the 2002 and 2012 Indonesian Seismic Code. This paper presents the result of sensitivity analysis research with emphasis on the prediction of deformation and inter-story drift of existing tall building within the city against fault earthquakes. The analysis was performed by conducting dynamic structural analysis of 8 (eight) tall buildings using modified acceleration time histories. The modified acceleration time histories were calculated for three fault earthquakes with magnitude from 6 Mw to 7 Mw. The modified acceleration time histories were implemented due to inadequate time histories data caused by those three fault earthquakes. Sensitivity analysis of building against earthquake can be predicted by evaluating surface response spectra calculated using seismic code and surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories from a specific earthquake event. If surface response spectra calculated using seismic code is greater than surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories the structure will stable enough to resist the earthquake force.

Radiation induced leakage due to stochastic charge trapping in isolation layers of nanoscale MOSFETs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebrev, G. I.; Gorbunov, M. S.; Pershenkov, V. S.

2008-03-01

The sensitivity of sub-100 nm devices to microdose effects, which can be considered as intermediate case between cumulative total dose and single event errors, is investigated. A detailed study of radiation-induced leakage due to stochastic charge trapping in irradiated planar and nonplanar devices is developed. The influence of High-K insulators on nanoscale ICs reliability is discussed. Low critical values of trapped charge demonstrate a high sensitivity to single event effect.

Efficiency of endoscopy units can be improved with use of discrete event simulation modeling.

PubMed

Sauer, Bryan G; Singh, Kanwar P; Wagner, Barry L; Vanden Hoek, Matthew S; Twilley, Katherine; Cohn, Steven M; Shami, Vanessa M; Wang, Andrew Y

2016-11-01

Background and study aims: The projected increased demand for health services obligates healthcare organizations to operate efficiently. Discrete event simulation (DES) is a modeling method that allows for optimization of systems through virtual testing of different configurations before implementation. The objective of this study was to identify strategies to improve the daily efficiencies of an endoscopy center with the use of DES. Methods: We built a DES model of a five procedure room endoscopy unit at a tertiary-care university medical center. After validating the baseline model, we tested alternate configurations to run the endoscopy suite and evaluated outcomes associated with each change. The main outcome measures included adequate number of preparation and recovery rooms, blocked inflow, delay times, blocked outflows, and patient cycle time. Results: Based on a sensitivity analysis, the adequate number of preparation rooms is eight and recovery rooms is nine for a five procedure room unit (total 3.4 preparation and recovery rooms per procedure room). Simple changes to procedure scheduling and patient arrival times led to a modest improvement in efficiency. Increasing the preparation/recovery rooms based on the sensitivity analysis led to significant improvements in efficiency. Conclusions: By applying tools such as DES, we can model changes in an environment with complex interactions and find ways to improve the medical care we provide. DES is applicable to any endoscopy unit and would be particularly valuable to those who are trying to improve on the efficiency of care and patient experience.

A novel automated detection system for swallowing sounds during eating and speech under everyday conditions.

PubMed

Fukuike, C; Kodama, N; Manda, Y; Hashimoto, Y; Sugimoto, K; Hirata, A; Pan, Q; Maeda, N; Minagi, S

2015-05-01

The wave analysis of swallowing sounds has been receiving attention because the recording process is easy and non-invasive. However, up until now, an expert has been needed to visually examine the entire recorded wave to distinguish swallowing from other sounds. The purpose of this study was to establish a methodology to automatically distinguish the sound of swallowing from sound data recorded during a meal in the presence of everyday ambient sound. Seven healthy participants (mean age: 26·7 ± 1·3 years) participated in this study. A laryngeal microphone and a condenser microphone attached to the nostril were used for simultaneous recording. Recoding took place while participants were taking a meal and talking with a conversational partner. Participants were instructed to step on a foot pedal trigger switch when they swallowed, representing self-enumeration of swallowing, and also to achieve six additional noise-making tasks during the meal in a randomised manner. The automated analysis system correctly detected 342 out of the 352 self-enumerated swallowing events (sensitivity: 97·2%) and 479 out of the 503 semblable wave periods of swallowing (specificity: 95·2%). In this study, the automated detection system for swallowing sounds using a nostril microphone was able to detect the swallowing event with high sensitivity and specificity even under the conditions of daily life, thus showing potential utility in the diagnosis or screening of dysphagic patients in future studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Health Economic Analysis of Antiplatelet Therapy for Acute Coronary Syndromes in the Context of Five Eastern Asian Countries.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Tobe, Ruoyan Gai; Liu, Yuchen; He, Ben

2018-04-30

The economic outcomes of dual antiplatelet therapy in East Asian patients are still unclear. We aimed to evaluate the economic outcomes of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. A two-phase model consisting of a 1-year decision tree and a lifetime Markov model was used to estimate the economic outcomes. The data from the East Asian subgroup of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO) and PHILO studies were used for the calculation of the events rate for ticagrelor and clopidogrel in the first 12 months, whereas the costs were obtained from East Asian sources and utility from the published literature. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model robustness. Ticagrelor showed the marginal lifetime quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 0.0050, 0.0091, 0.0107, 0.0050, and 0.0050 in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong compared with clopidogrel, with marginal healthcare costs of (all values in US dollars) $562, $595, $975, $611, and $672, respectively. The marginal cost per QALY gained with ticagrelor was $112,051, $65,692, $91,207, $121,838, and $133,953 from a public healthcare system perspective of China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed consistent results. Treatment of ACS for 12 months with ticagrelor is not a cost-effective option for the prevention of thrombotic events in East Asia.

Efficiency of endoscopy units can be improved with use of discrete event simulation modeling

PubMed Central

Sauer, Bryan G.; Singh, Kanwar P.; Wagner, Barry L.; Vanden Hoek, Matthew S.; Twilley, Katherine; Cohn, Steven M.; Shami, Vanessa M.; Wang, Andrew Y.

2016-01-01

Background and study aims: The projected increased demand for health services obligates healthcare organizations to operate efficiently. Discrete event simulation (DES) is a modeling method that allows for optimization of systems through virtual testing of different configurations before implementation. The objective of this study was to identify strategies to improve the daily efficiencies of an endoscopy center with the use of DES. Methods: We built a DES model of a five procedure room endoscopy unit at a tertiary-care university medical center. After validating the baseline model, we tested alternate configurations to run the endoscopy suite and evaluated outcomes associated with each change. The main outcome measures included adequate number of preparation and recovery rooms, blocked inflow, delay times, blocked outflows, and patient cycle time. Results: Based on a sensitivity analysis, the adequate number of preparation rooms is eight and recovery rooms is nine for a five procedure room unit (total 3.4 preparation and recovery rooms per procedure room). Simple changes to procedure scheduling and patient arrival times led to a modest improvement in efficiency. Increasing the preparation/recovery rooms based on the sensitivity analysis led to significant improvements in efficiency. Conclusions: By applying tools such as DES, we can model changes in an environment with complex interactions and find ways to improve the medical care we provide. DES is applicable to any endoscopy unit and would be particularly valuable to those who are trying to improve on the efficiency of care and patient experience. PMID:27853739

[Post-licensure passive safety surveillance of rotavirus vaccines: reporting sensitivity for intussusception].

PubMed

Pérez-Vilar, S; Díez-Domingo, J; Gomar-Fayos, J; Pastor-Villalba, E; Sastre-Cantón, M; Puig-Barberà, J

2014-08-01

The aims of this study were to describe the reports of suspected adverse events due to rotavirus vaccines, and assess the reporting sensitivity for intussusception. Descriptive study performed using the reports of suspected adverse events following rotavirus vaccination in infants aged less than 10 months, as registered in the Pharmacovigilance Centre of the Valencian Community during 2007-2011. The reporting rate for intussusception was compared to the intussusception rate in vaccinated infants obtained using the hospital discharge database (CMBD), and the regional vaccine registry. The adverse event reporting rate was 20 per 100,000 administered doses, with the majority (74%) of the reports being classified as non-serious. Fever, vomiting, and diarrhea were the adverse events reported more frequently. Two intussusception cases, which occurred within the first seven days post-vaccination, were reported as temporarily associated to vaccination. The reporting sensitivity for intussusception at the Pharmacovigilance Centre in the 1-7 day interval following rotavirus vaccination was 50%. Our results suggest that rotavirus vaccines have, in general, a good safety profile. Intussusception reporting to the Pharmacovigilance Centre shows sensitivity similar to other passive surveillance systems. The intussusception risk should be further investigated using well-designed epidemiological studies, and evaluated in comparison with the well-known benefits provided by these vaccines. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

All-Sky Search for Gravitational-Wave Bursts in the First Joint LIGO-GEO-Virgo Run

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camp, J. B.; Camizzo, J.

2012-01-01

We present results from an aU-sky search for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO, GEO 600 and Virgo detectors between November 2006 and October 2007. The search is performed. by three different analysis algorithms over the frequency band 50 - 6000 Hz. Data are analyzed for times with at least two of the four LIGO-Virgo detectors in coincident operation, with a total live time of 266 days, No events produced by the search algorithms survive the selection cuts. We set a frequentist upper limit on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts impinging on our network of detectors. When combined with the previous LIGO search of the data collected between November 2005 and November 2006, the upper limit on the rate of detectable gra.vitational. wave bursts in the 64-2048 Hz band is 2,0 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present event rate versus strength exclusion plots for several types of plausible burst waveforms. The sensitivity of the combined search is expressed in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for a variety of simulated waveforms and lies in the range 6 X 10(exp -22) Hz(exp - 1/2) to 2 X 10(exp -20) Hz(exp -l/2). This is the first untriggered burst search to use data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors together, and the most sensitive untriggered burst search performed so far.

Measurement of Muon Neutrino Disappearance with the NOvA Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vinton, Luke

The NOvA experiment consists of two functionally identical tracking calorimeter detectors which measure the neutrino energy and flavour composition of the NuMI beam at baselines of 1~km and 810~km. Measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters are extracted by comparing the neutrino energy spectrum in the far detector with predictions of the oscillated neutrino energy spectra that are made using information extracted from the near detector. Observation of muon neutrino disappearance allows NOvA to make measurements of the mass squared splittingmore » $$\\Delta m^2_{32}$$ and the mixing angle $$\\theta_{23}$$. The measurement of $$\\theta_{23}$$ will provide insight into the make-up of the third mass eigenstate and probe the muon-tau symmetry hypothesis that requires $$\\theta_{23} = \\pi/4$$. This thesis introduces three methods to improve the sensitivity of NOvA's muon neutrino disappearance analysis. First, neutrino events are separated according to an estimate of their energy resolution to distinguish well resolved events from events that are not so well resolved. Second, an optimised neutrino energy binning is implemented that uses finer binning in the region of maximum muon neutrino disappearance. Third, a hybrid selection is introduced that selects muon neutrino events with greater efficiency and purity. The combination of these improvements produces an increase in the sensitivity of the analysis equivalent to collecting 40-100\\% more data across the range of possible values of $$\\Delta m^2_{32}$$ and $$\\sin^2\\theta_{23}$$. This thesis presents new results using a 14~ktonne detector equivalent exposure of $$6.05\\times 10^{20}$$~protons~on~target. A fit to the far detector data, assuming normal hierarchy, produces $$\\Delta m^2_{32}=2.45^{+0.087}_{-0.079}\\times10^{-3}~\\text{eV}^2$$ and $$\\sin^2\\theta_{23}$$ in the range 0.429~-~0.593 with two statistically degenerate best fit points at 0.481 and 0.547. This measurement is consistent with maximal mixing where $$\\theta_{ 23} = \\pi/4$$. The data used for this thesis is 1/6 of the to! tal data that NOvA expects to collect.« less

Most outdoor malaria transmission by behaviourally-resistant Anopheles arabiensis is mediated by mosquitoes that have previously been inside houses.

PubMed

Killeen, Gerry F; Govella, Nicodem J; Lwetoijera, Dickson W; Okumu, Fredros O

2016-04-19

Anopheles arabiensis is stereotypical of diverse vectors that mediate residual malaria transmission globally, because it can feed outdoors upon humans or cattle, or enter but then rapidly exit houses without fatal exposure to insecticidal nets or sprays. Life histories of a well-characterized An. arabiensis population were simulated with a simple but process-explicit deterministic model and relevance to other vectors examined through sensitivity analysis. Where most humans use bed nets, two thirds of An. arabiensis blood feeds and half of malaria transmission events were estimated to occur outdoors. However, it was also estimated that most successful feeds and almost all (>98 %) transmission events are preceded by unsuccessful attempts to attack humans indoors. The estimated proportion of vector blood meals ultimately obtained from humans indoors is dramatically attenuated by availability of alternative hosts, or partial ability to attack humans outdoors. However, the estimated proportion of mosquitoes old enough to transmit malaria, and which have previously entered a house at least once, is far less sensitive to both variables. For vectors with similarly modest preference for cattle over humans and similar ability to evade fatal indoor insecticide exposure once indoors, >80 % of predicted feeding events by mosquitoes old enough to transmit malaria are preceded by at least one house entry event, so long as ≥40 % of attempts to attack humans occur indoors and humans outnumber cattle ≥4-fold. While the exact numerical results predicted by such a simple deterministic model should be considered only approximate and illustrative, the derived conclusions are remarkably insensitive to substantive deviations from the input parameter values measured for this particular An. arabiensis population. This life-history analysis, therefore, identifies a clear, broadly-important opportunity for more effective suppression of residual malaria transmission by An. arabiensis in Africa and other important vectors of residual transmission across the tropics. Improved control of predominantly outdoor residual transmission by An. arabiensis, and other modestly zoophagic vectors like Anopheles darlingi, which frequently enter but then rapidly exit from houses, may be readily achieved by improving existing technology for killing mosquitoes indoors.

Updating older forest inventory data with a growth model and satellite records to improve the responsiveness and currency of national carbon monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healey, S. P.; Zhao, F. R.; McCarter, J. B.; Frescino, T.; Goeking, S.

2017-12-01

International reporting of American forest carbon trends depends upon the Forest Service's nationally consistent network of inventory plots. Plots are measured on a rolling basis over a 5- to 10-year cycle, so estimates related to any variable, including carbon storage, reflect conditions over a 5- to 10-year window. This makes it difficult to identify the carbon impact of discrete events (e.g., a bad fire year; extraction rates related to home-building trends), particularly if the events are recent.We report an approach to make inventory estimates more sensitive to discrete and recent events. We use a growth model (the Forest Vegetation Simulator - FVS) that is maintained by the Forest Service to annually update the tree list for every plot, allowing all plots to contribute to a series of single-year estimates. Satellite imagery from the Landsat platform guides the FVS simulations by providing information about which plots have been disturbed, which are recovering from disturbance, and which are undergoing undisturbed growth. The FVS model is only used to "update" plot tree lists until the next field measurement is made (maximum of 9 years). As a result, predicted changes are usually small and error rates are low. We present a pilot study of this system in Idaho, which has experienced several major fire events in the last decade. Empirical estimates of uncertainty, accounting for both plot sampling error and FVS model error, suggest that this approach greatly increases temporal specificity and sensitivity to discrete events without sacrificing much estimate precision at the level of a US state. This approach has the potential to take better advantage of the Forest Service's rolling plot measurement schedule to report carbon storage in the US, and it offers the basis of a system that might allow near-term, forward-looking analysis of the effects of hypothetical forest disturbance patterns.

Response to droughts and heat waves of the productivity of natural and agricultural ecosystems in Europe within ISI-MIP2 historical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Dury, Marie; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy; Friend, Andrew; Rademacher, Tim T.; Hacket Pain, Andrew J.; Hickler, Thomas; Tian, Hanqin; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Nishina, Kazuya

2016-04-01

According to the projections of climate models, extreme events such as droughts and heat waves are expected to become more frequent and more severe in the future. Such events are known to severely impact the productivity of both natural and agricultural ecosystems, and hence to affect ecosystem services such as crop yield and ecosystem carbon sequestration potential. Dynamic vegetation models are conventional tools to evaluate the productivity and carbon sequestration of ecosystems and their response to climate change. However, how far are these models able to correctly represent the sensitivity of ecosystems to droughts and heat waves? How do the responses of natural and agricultural ecosystems compare to each other, in terms of drought-induced changes in productivity and carbon sequestration? In this contribution, we use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to tentatively answer these questions. Nine dynamic vegetation models have participated in the biome sector intercomparison of ISI-MIP2: CARAIB, DLEM, HYBRID, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, VEGAS and VISIT. We focus the analysis on well-marked droughts or heat waves that occured in Europe after 1970, such as the 1976, 2003 and 2010 events. For most recent studied events, the model results are compared to the response observed at several eddy covariance sites in Europe, and, at a larger scale, to the changes in crop productivities reported in national statistics or to the drought impacts on gross primary productivity derived from satellite data (Terra MODIS instrument). The sensitivity of the models to the climatological dataset used in the simulations, as well as to the inclusion or not of anthropogenic land use, is also analysed within the studied events. Indeed, the ISI-MIP simulations have been run with four different historical climatic forcings, as well as for several land use/land cover configurations (natural vegetation, fixed land use and variable land use).

A randomized trial of therapies for type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Frye, Robert L; August, Phyllis; Brooks, Maria Mori; Hardison, Regina M; Kelsey, Sheryl F; MacGregor, Joan M; Orchard, Trevor J; Chaitman, Bernard R; Genuth, Saul M; Goldberg, Suzanne H; Hlatky, Mark A; Jones, Teresa L Z; Molitch, Mark E; Nesto, Richard W; Sako, Edward Y; Sobel, Burton E

2009-06-11

Optimal treatment for patients with both type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease has not been established. We randomly assigned 2368 patients with both type 2 diabetes and heart disease to undergo either prompt revascularization with intensive medical therapy or intensive medical therapy alone and to undergo either insulin-sensitization or insulin-provision therapy. Primary end points were the rate of death and a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (major cardiovascular events). Randomization was stratified according to the choice of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) as the more appropriate intervention. At 5 years, rates of survival did not differ significantly between the revascularization group (88.3%) and the medical-therapy group (87.8%, P=0.97) or between the insulin-sensitization group (88.2%) and the insulin-provision group (87.9%, P=0.89). The rates of freedom from major cardiovascular events also did not differ significantly among the groups: 77.2% in the revascularization group and 75.9% in the medical-treatment group (P=0.70) and 77.7% in the insulin-sensitization group and 75.4% in the insulin-provision group (P=0.13). In the PCI stratum, there was no significant difference in primary end points between the revascularization group and the medical-therapy group. In the CABG stratum, the rate of major cardiovascular events was significantly lower in the revascularization group (22.4%) than in the medical-therapy group (30.5%, P=0.01; P=0.002 for interaction between stratum and study group). Adverse events and serious adverse events were generally similar among the groups, although severe hypoglycemia was more frequent in the insulin-provision group (9.2%) than in the insulin-sensitization group (5.9%, P=0.003). Overall, there was no significant difference in the rates of death and major cardiovascular events between patients undergoing prompt revascularization and those undergoing medical therapy or between strategies of insulin sensitization and insulin provision. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00006305.) 2009 Massachusetts Medical Society

Correlated Event-by-Event Fluctuations of Flow Harmonics in Pb-Pb Collisions at √{sN N }=2.76 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Aglieri Rinella, G.; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahmad, S.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Antičić, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshäuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badalà, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnaföldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Basu, S.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Batista Camejo, A.; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Beltran, L. G. E.; Belyaev, V.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielčík, J.; Bielčíková, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Bøggild, H.; Boldizsár, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossú, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Calero Diaz, L.; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castillo Castellanos, J.; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Ceballos Sanchez, C.; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Chibante Barroso, V.; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Chung, S. U.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Conesa Balbastre, G.; Conesa Del Valle, Z.; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Corrales Morales, Y.; Cortés Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, D.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; de, S.; de Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; de Falco, A.; de Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; de Pasquale, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Dénes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; di Bari, D.; di Mauro, A.; di Nezza, P.; di Ruzza, B.; Diaz Corchero, M. A.; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divià, R.; Djuvsland, Ø.; Dobrin, A.; Domenicis Gimenez, D.; Dönigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernández Téllez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Francisco, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Fusco Girard, M.; Gaardhøje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gajdosova, K.; Gallio, M.; Galvan, C. D.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, M.; Ghosh, P.; Ghosh, S. K.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glässel, P.; Goméz Coral, D. M.; Gomez Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; González-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Görlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Gruber, L.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, R.; Haake, R.; Haaland, Ø.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbär, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Hughes, C.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacak, B.; Jacazio, N.; Jacobs, P. M.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Jimenez Bustamante, R. T.; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kang, J. H.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Karasu Uysal, A.; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Mohisin Khan, M.; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein, J.; Klein-Bösing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, G.; Králik, I.; Kravčáková, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kučera, V.; Kuhn, C.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lapidus, K.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lehner, S.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; León Monzón, I.; León Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Lévai, P.; Li, S.; Li, X.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; López Torres, E.; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mareš, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marín, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Martin Blanco, J.; Martinengo, P.; Martínez, M. I.; Martínez García, G.; Martinez Pedreira, M.; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; McDonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Mercado Pérez, J.; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miśkowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montaño Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; Moreira de Godoy, D. A.; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Mühlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Münning, K.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paić, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Pandey, A. K.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Peng, X.; Pereira da Costa, H.; Peresunko, D.; Perez Lezama, E.; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petráček, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Płoskoń, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Poppenborg, H.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Räsänen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Rehman, A.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodríguez Cahuantzi, M.; Rodriguez Manso, A.; Røed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Röhrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Rubio Montero, A. J.; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Šafařík, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Šándor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schmidt, M.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Šefčík, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Šumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Muñoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thäder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Tikhonov, A.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Valencia Palomo, L.; Vallero, S.; van der Maarel, J.; van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vande Vyvre, P.; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vázquez Doce, O.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limón, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Villalobos Baillie, O.; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Völkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrláková, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weber, M.; Weber, S. G.; Weiser, D. F.; Wessels, J. P.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, P.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I.-K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Závada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, D.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.; Alice Collaboration

2016-10-01

We report the measurements of correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of amplitudes of anisotropic flow harmonics in nucleus-nucleus collisions, obtained for the first time using a new analysis method based on multiparticle cumulants in mixed harmonics. This novel method is robust against systematic biases originating from nonflow effects and by construction any dependence on symmetry planes is eliminated. We demonstrate that correlations of flow harmonics exhibit a better sensitivity to medium properties than the individual flow harmonics. The new measurements are performed in Pb-Pb collisions at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of √{sN N }=2.76 TeV by the ALICE experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The centrality dependence of correlation between event-by-event fluctuations of the elliptic v2 and quadrangular v4 flow harmonics, as well as of anticorrelation between v2 and triangular v3 flow harmonics are presented. The results cover two different regimes of the initial state configurations: geometry dominated (in midcentral collisions) and fluctuation dominated (in the most central collisions). Comparisons are made to predictions from Monte Carlo Glauber, viscous hydrodynamics, ampt, and hijing models. Together with the existing measurements of the individual flow harmonics the presented results provide further constraints on the initial conditions and the transport properties of the system produced in heavy-ion collisions.

Strong gravitational lensing of gravitational waves from double compact binaries—perspectives for the Einstein Telescope

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biesiada, Marek; Ding, Xuheng; Zhu, Zong-Hong

Gravitational wave (GW) experiments are entering their advanced stage which should soon open a new observational window on the Universe. Looking into this future, the Einstein Telescope (ET) was designed to have a fantastic sensitivity improving significantly over the advanced GW detectors. One of the most important astrophysical GW sources supposed to be detected by the ET in large numbers are double compact objects (DCO) and some of such events should be gravitationally lensed by intervening galaxies. We explore the prospects of observing gravitationally lensed inspiral DCO events in the ET. This analysis is a significant extension of our previousmore » paper [1]. We are using the intrinsic merger rates of the whole class of DCO (NS-NS,BH-NS,BH-BH) located at different redshifts as calculated by [2] by using StarTrack population synthesis evolutionary code. We discuss in details predictions from each evolutionary scenario. Our general conclusion is that ET would register about 50–100 strongly lensed inspiral events per year. Only the scenario in which nascent BHs receive strong kick gives the predictions of a few events per year. Such lensed events would be dominated by the BH-BH merging binary systems. Our results suggest that during a few years of successful operation ET will provide a considerable catalog of strongly lensed events.« less

Azimuthally differential pion femtoscopy relative to the second and third harmonic in Pb-Pb 2.76 TeV collision from ALICE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, Mohammad; Alice Collaboration

2017-11-01

Azimuthally differential femtoscopic measurements, being sensitive to spatio-temporal characteristics of the source as well as to the collective velocity fields at freeze-out, provide very important information on the nature and dynamics of the system evolution. While the HBT radii modulations relative to the second harmonic event plane reflect mostly the spatial geometry of the source, the third harmonic results are mostly defined by the velocity fields [S. A. Voloshin, J. Phys. G38 (2011) 124097. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1106.5830, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0954-3899/38/12/124097]. Radii variations with respect to the third harmonic event plane unambiguously signal a collective expansion and anisotropy in the flow fields. Event shape engineering (ESE) is a technique proposed to select events corresponding to a particular shape. Azimuthally differential HBT combined with ESE allows for a detailed analysis of the relation between initial geometry, anisotropic flow and the deformation of source shape. We present azimuthally differential pion femtoscopy with respect to second and third harmonic event planes as a function of the pion transverse momentum for different collision centralities in Pb-Pb collisions at √{sNN} = 2.76 TeV. All these results are compared to existing models. The effects of the selection of the events with high elliptic or triangular flow are also presented.

Correlated Event-by-Event Fluctuations of Flow Harmonics in Pb-Pb Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=2.76  TeV.

PubMed

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Schwarz, K; Schweda, K; Scioli, G; Scomparin, E; Scott, R; Šefčík, M; Seger, J E; Sekiguchi, Y; Sekihata, D; Selyuzhenkov, I; Senosi, K; Senyukov, S; Serradilla, E; Sevcenco, A; Shabanov, A; Shabetai, A; Shadura, O; Shahoyan, R; Shahzad, M I; Shangaraev, A; Sharma, A; Sharma, M; Sharma, M; Sharma, N; Sheikh, A I; Shigaki, K; Shou, Q; Shtejer, K; Sibiriak, Y; Siddhanta, S; Sielewicz, K M; Siemiarczuk, T; Silvermyr, D; Silvestre, C; Simatovic, G; Simonetti, G; Singaraju, R; Singh, R; Singhal, V; Sinha, T; Sitar, B; Sitta, M; Skaali, T B; Slupecki, M; Smirnov, N; Snellings, R J M; Snellman, T W; Song, J; Song, M; Song, Z; Soramel, F; Sorensen, S; Sozzi, F; Spacek, M; Spiriti, E; Sputowska, I; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M; Stachel, J; Stan, I; Stankus, P; Stenlund, E; Steyn, G; Stiller, J H; Stocco, D; Strmen, P; Suaide, A A P; Sugitate, T; Suire, C; Suleymanov, M; Suljic, M; Sultanov, R; Šumbera, M; Sumowidagdo, S; Szabo, A; Szarka, I; Szczepankiewicz, A; Szymanski, M; Tabassam, U; Takahashi, J; Tambave, G J; Tanaka, N; Tarhini, M; Tariq, M; Tarzila, M G; Tauro, A; Tejeda Muñoz, G; Telesca, A; Terasaki, K; Terrevoli, C; Teyssier, B; Thäder, J; Thakur, D; Thomas, D; Tieulent, R; Tikhonov, A; Timmins, A R; Toia, A; Trogolo, S; Trombetta, G; Trubnikov, V; Trzaska, W H; Tsuji, T; Tumkin, A; Turrisi, R; Tveter, T S; Ullaland, K; Uras, A; Usai, G L; Utrobicic, A; Vala, M; Valencia Palomo, L; Vallero, S; Van Der Maarel, J; Van Hoorne, J W; van Leeuwen, M; Vanat, T; Vande Vyvre, P; Varga, D; Vargas, A; Vargyas, M; Varma, R; Vasileiou, M; Vasiliev, A; Vauthier, A; Vázquez Doce, O; Vechernin, V; Veen, A M; Veldhoen, M; Velure, A; Vercellin, E; Vergara Limón, S; Vernet, R; Verweij, M; Vickovic, L; Viinikainen, J; Vilakazi, Z; Villalobos Baillie, O; Villatoro Tello, A; Vinogradov, A; Vinogradov, L; Vinogradov, Y; Virgili, T; Vislavicius, V; Viyogi, Y P; Vodopyanov, A; Völkl, M A; Voloshin, K; Voloshin, S A; Volpe, G; von Haller, B; Vorobyev, I; Vranic, D; Vrláková, J; Vulpescu, B; Wagner, B; Wagner, J; Wang, H; Wang, M; Watanabe, D; Watanabe, Y; Weber, M; Weber, S G; Weiser, D F; Wessels, J P; Westerhoff, U; Whitehead, A M; Wiechula, J; Wikne, J; Wilk, G; Wilkinson, J; Williams, M C S; Windelband, B; Winn, M; Yang, P; Yano, S; Yasin, Z; Yin, Z; Yokoyama, H; Yoo, I-K; Yoon, J H; Yurchenko, V; Zaborowska, A; Zaccolo, V; Zaman, A; Zampolli, C; Zanoli, H J C; Zaporozhets, S; Zardoshti, N; Zarochentsev, A; Závada, P; Zaviyalov, N; Zbroszczyk, H; Zgura, I S; Zhalov, M; Zhang, H; Zhang, X; Zhang, Y; Zhang, C; Zhang, Z; Zhao, C; Zhigareva, N; Zhou, D; Zhou, Y; Zhou, Z; Zhu, H; Zhu, J; Zichichi, A; Zimmermann, A; Zimmermann, M B; Zinovjev, G; Zyzak, M

2016-10-28

We report the measurements of correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of amplitudes of anisotropic flow harmonics in nucleus-nucleus collisions, obtained for the first time using a new analysis method based on multiparticle cumulants in mixed harmonics. This novel method is robust against systematic biases originating from nonflow effects and by construction any dependence on symmetry planes is eliminated. We demonstrate that correlations of flow harmonics exhibit a better sensitivity to medium properties than the individual flow harmonics. The new measurements are performed in Pb-Pb collisions at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of sqrt[s_{NN}]=2.76  TeV by the ALICE experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The centrality dependence of correlation between event-by-event fluctuations of the elliptic v_{2} and quadrangular v_{4} flow harmonics, as well as of anticorrelation between v_{2} and triangular v_{3} flow harmonics are presented. The results cover two different regimes of the initial state configurations: geometry dominated (in midcentral collisions) and fluctuation dominated (in the most central collisions). Comparisons are made to predictions from Monte Carlo Glauber, viscous hydrodynamics, ampt, and hijing models. Together with the existing measurements of the individual flow harmonics the presented results provide further constraints on the initial conditions and the transport properties of the system produced in heavy-ion collisions.

Surface Modification Enhanced Reflection Intensity of Quartz Crystal Microbalance Sensors upon Molecular Adsorption.

PubMed

Kojima, Taisuke

2018-01-01

Molecular adsorption on a sensing surface involves molecule-substrate and molecule-molecule interactions. Combining optical systems and a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) on the same sensing surface allows the quantification of such interactions and reveals the physicochemical properties of the adsorbed molecules. However, low sensitivity of the current reflection-based techniques compared to the QCM technique hinders the quantitative analysis of the adsorption events. Here, a layer-by-layer surface modification of a QCM sensor is studied to increase the optical sensitivity. The intermediate layers of organic-inorganic molecules and metal-metal oxide were explored on a gold (Au) surface of a QCM sensor. First, polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxane-derivatives that served as the organic-inorganic intermediate layer were synthesized and modified on the Au-QCM surface. Meanwhile, titanium oxide, fabricated by anodic oxidation of titanium, was used as a metal-metal oxide intermediate layer on a titanium-coated QCM surface. The developed technique enabled interrogation of the molecular adsorption owing to the enhanced optical sensitivity.

Zooming in on Life Events: Is Hedonic Adaptation Sensitive to the Temporal Distance from the Event?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uglanova, Ekaterina A.; Staudinger, Ursula M.

2013-01-01

This paper analyzed the effect of major positive and negative life events (marriage, divorce, birth of child, widowhood, and unemployment) on life satisfaction. For the first time, this study estimated the effects of life events not with a precision of 12 months but of 3 months. Specifically, two questions were addressed: (1) Does the precision of…

Lingering effects of preceding strong El Niño events on the typhoon activity in early summer: Case study of sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaya, Y.; Kubo, Y.; Yamaguchi, M.; Vitart, F.; Hirahara, S.; Maeda, S.

2016-12-01

Strong El Niño events have lingering effects on the seasonal variability in the Indo- western Pacific region in the mature-decay phase of El Niño. Specifically, in the decay phase, a low-level anticyclonic circulation and suppressed convection in the western North Pacific are enforced as a result of a local air-sea feedback in the western North Pacific and remote response to the Indian Ocean warming due to El Niño. The typhoon activity in the western North Pacific is also modulated by the lingering effects in the early typhoon season (boreal spring to early summer) following the strong El Niño events. This study investigates underlying mechanisms and predictability by analyzing the historical analysis data, subseasonal and seasonal reforecast data, and sensitivity experiments with the use of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for the 2016 typhoon season. In this study, we focus on the remote response of the typhoon activity in the Indo-Pacific region. First, we examined the case of 2016, which exhibited the striking inactive typhoon activity and marked the second latest genesis of the first typhoon of the year since 1977 (Typhoon Nipartak on 3 July 2016). The inactive typhoon activity in the early typhoon season of 2016 is plausibly related to the lingering effects of the preceding strong El Niño in 2015/2016 winter. And the inactive typhoon condition and its related atmosphere-ocean conditions in the western north Pacific were successfully predicted with sub-seasonal prediction systems and JMA seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2) well in advance. A composite analysis using historical analysis data indicates that the typhoon activity tends to be suppressed associated with the Indian Ocean warming in boreal spring to summer following El Niño winters. This is relatively well replicated in reforecasts of JMA/MRI-CPS2. We also carried out sensitivity experiments with JMA/MRI-CPS2, where we strongly nudge sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean to climatological SST. The typhoon activity in the western North Pacific is enhanced in the sensitivity experiment, implying that the the Indian Ocean played a role in shaping the inactive typhoon conditions in the 2016 typhoon season. We will further discuss the underlying mechanisms and predictability using the series of experiments.

Lithium Ion Batteries Used for Nuclear Forensics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Erik B.; Stapels, Christopher J.; Chen, X. Jie; Whitney, Chad; Holbert, Keith E.; Christian, James F.

2013-10-01

Nuclear forensics includes the study of materials used for the attribution a nuclear event. Analysis of the nuclear reaction products resulting both from the weapon and the material in the vicinity of the event provides data needed to identify the source of the nuclear material and the weapon design. The spectral information of the neutrons produced by the event provides information on the weapon configuration. The lithium battery provides a unique platform for nuclear forensics, as the Li-6 content is highly sensitive to neutrons, while the battery construction consists of various layers of materials. Each of these materials represents an element for a threshold detector scheme, where isotopes are produced in the battery components through various nuclear reactions that require a neutron energy above a fundamental threshold energy. This study looks into means for extracting neutron spectral information by understanding the isotopic concentration prior to and after exposure. The radioisotopes decay through gamma and beta emission, and radiation spectrometers have been used to measure the radiation spectra from the neutron exposed batteries. The batteries were exposed to various known neutron fields, and analysis was conducted to reconstruct the incident neutron spectra. This project is supported by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, grant number HDTRA1-11-1-0028.

Not all stories of professional identity formation are equal: An analysis of formation narratives of highly humanistic physicians.

PubMed

Branch, William T; Frankel, Richard

2016-08-01

We sought to identify and define "highly humanistic" formation narratives, and understand how these events described, together with a reflective learning process, the professional development of physicians in a longitudinal faculty development program. Qualitative analysis of twenty highly humanistic appreciative inquiry narratives selected from a total of 124 written by faculty members at the beginning and end of an eighteen month program at eight medical schools. [9,10] We employed the immersion/crystallization method of Borkan [20] to capture the rich meanings and emotional depth of the twenty narratives. Highly humanistic formation narratives described emotionally charged events in which the faculty writers provided humanistic care that went beyond what they had previously thought themselves capable of; benefited the patient, family or faculty member to a major extent; and reaffirmed or strengthened their professional values. Highly humanistic formation narratives were clustered at the end of our eighteen month curriculum. Participation in faculty development for humanism may have increased the numbers of highly humanistic events by sensitizing and motivating faculty members to meet their patients' emotional needs. Our paper describes a process whereby faculty members may achieve growth in their capacities to meet patients' needs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of protein haptenation in triggering maturation events in the dendritic cell surrogate cell line THP-1.

PubMed

Megherbi, Rym; Kiorpelidou, Evanthia; Foster, Brian; Rowe, Cliff; Naisbitt, Dean J; Goldring, Christopher E; Park, B Kevin

2009-07-15

Dendritic cell (DC) maturation in response to contact sensitizers is a crucial step in the induction of sensitization reactions; however the underlying mechanism of activation remains unknown. To test whether the extent of protein haptenation is a determinant in DC maturation, we tested the effect of five dinitrophenyl (DNP) analogues of different reactivity, on maturation markers in the cell line, THP-1. The potencies of the test compounds in upregulating CD54 levels, inducing IL-8 release and triggering p38 MAPK phosphorylation did not correlate with their ability to deplete intracellular glutathione (GSH) levels or cause cell toxicity. However, the compounds' potency at inducing p38 phosphorylation was significantly associated with the amount of intracellular protein adducts formed (p<0.05). Inhibition experiments show that, at least for DNFB, p38 MAP kinase signalling controls compound-specific changes in CD54 expression and IL-8 release. 2D-PAGE analysis revealed that all the DNP analogues appeared to bind similar proteins. The analogues failed to activate NFkB, however, they activated Nrf2, which was used as a marker of oxidative stress. Neither GSH depletion, by use of buthionine sulfoximine, nor treatment with the strongly lysine-reactive hapten penicillin elicited maturation. We conclude that protein haptenation, probably through reactive cysteine residues may be a trigger for maturation events in this in vitro model and that p38 activation may be a discriminatory marker for the classification of potency of chemical sensitizers.

Comparison of Glaucoma Progression Detection by Optical Coherence Tomography and Visual Field.

PubMed

Zhang, Xinbo; Dastiridou, Anna; Francis, Brian A; Tan, Ou; Varma, Rohit; Greenfield, David S; Schuman, Joel S; Huang, David

2017-12-01

To compare longitudinal glaucoma progression detection using optical coherence tomography (OCT) and visual field (VF). Validity assessment. We analyzed subjects with more than 4 semi-annual follow-up visits (every 6 months) in the multicenter Advanced Imaging for Glaucoma Study. Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) was used to map the thickness of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (NFL) and ganglion cell complex (GCC). OCT-based progression detection was defined as a significant negative trend for either NFL or GCC. VF progression was reached if either the event or trend analysis reached significance. The analysis included 356 glaucoma suspect/preperimetric glaucoma (GS/PPG) eyes and 153 perimetric glaucoma (PG) eyes. Follow-up length was 54.1 ± 16.2 months for GS/PPG eyes and 56.7 ± 16.0 for PG eyes. Progression was detected in 62.1% of PG eyes and 59.8% of GS/PPG eyes by OCT, significantly (P < .001) more than the detection rate of 41.8% and 27.3% by VF. In severity-stratified analysis of PG eyes, OCT had significantly higher detection rate than VF in mild PG (63.1% vs. 38.7%, P < .001), but not in moderate and advanced PG. The rate of NFL thinning slowed dramatically in advanced PG, but GCC thinning rate remained relatively steady and allowed good progression detection even in advanced disease. The Kaplan-Meier time-to-event analyses showed that OCT detected progression earlier than VF in both PG and GS/PPG groups. OCT is more sensitive than VF for the detection of progression in early glaucoma. While the utility of NFL declines in advanced glaucoma, GCC remains a sensitive progression detector from early to advanced stages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ticagrelor compared to clopidogrel for the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome in Colombia.

PubMed

Mejía, Aurelio; Senior, Juan Manuel; Ceballos, Mateo; Atehortúa, Sara; Toro, Juan Manuel; Saldarriaga, Clara; Mejía, María Elena; Ramírez, Carolina

2015-01-01

Acute coronary syndrome is one of the most frequent medical emergencies in developing countries. To determine, from the perspective of the Colombian health system, the cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor compared to clopidogrel for the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the Colombian health system comparing ticagrelor and clopidogrel for the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome. To estimate the expected costs and outcomes, a Markov model was constructed in which patients could remain stable without experiencing new cardiovascular events, suffer from a new event, or die. For the baseline case, a 10-year time horizon and a discount ratio of 3% for costs and benefits were adopted. The transition probabilities were extracted from the PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) clinical trial. Vital statistics were drawn from the Departmento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) and additional information from Colombian patients included in the Access registry. To identify and measure resource use, a standard case was built by consulting guidelines and protocols. Unit costs were obtained from Colombian rate lists. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted in which costs were represented by a triangular distribution, and the effectiveness through a beta distribution. In the base case, the additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained with ticagrelor was COP$ 28,411,503. The results were sensitive to changes in the time horizon and the unit cost of clopidogrel. For a willingness-to-pay equivalent to three times the Colombian per capita gross domestic product, the probability of ticagrelor being cost-effective was 75%. Ticagrelor is a cost-effective strategy for the treatment of patients with acute coronary syndrome in Colombia.

The use of multiple imputation method for the validation of 24-h food recalls by part-time observation of dietary intake in school.

PubMed

Kupek, Emil; de Assis, Maria Alice A

2016-09-01

External validation of food recall over 24 h in schoolchildren is often restricted to eating events in schools and is based on direct observation as the reference method. The aim of this study was to estimate the dietary intake out of school, and consequently the bias in such research design based on only part-time validated food recall, using multiple imputation (MI) conditioned on the information on child age, sex, BMI, family income, parental education and the school attended. The previous-day, web-based questionnaire WebCAAFE, structured as six meals/snacks and thirty-two foods/beverage, was answered by a sample of 7-11-year-old Brazilian schoolchildren (n 602) from five public schools. Food/beverage intake recalled by children was compared with the records provided by trained observers during school meals. Sensitivity analysis was performed with artificial data emulating those recalled by children on WebCAAFE in order to evaluate the impact of both differential and non-differential bias. Estimated bias was within ±30 % interval for 84·4 % of the thirty-two foods/beverages evaluated in WebCAAFE, and half of the latter reached statistical significance (P<0·05). Rarely (<3 %) consumed dietary items were often under-reported (fish/seafood, vegetable soup, cheese bread, French fries), whereas some of those most frequently reported (meat, bread/biscuits, fruits) showed large overestimation. Compared with the analysis restricted to fully validated data, MI reduced differential bias in sensitivity analysis but the bias still remained large in most cases. MI provided a suitable statistical framework for part-time validation design of dietary intake over six daily eating events.

Development of Sensitivity to Audiovisual Temporal Asynchrony during Midchildhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaganovich, Natalya

2016-01-01

Temporal proximity is one of the key factors determining whether events in different modalities are integrated into a unified percept. Sensitivity to audiovisual temporal asynchrony has been studied in adults in great detail. However, how such sensitivity matures during childhood is poorly understood. We examined perception of audiovisual temporal…

Cost-Utility Analysis of Lurasidone Versus Aripiprazole in Adults with Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Rajagopalan, Krithika; Trueman, David; Crowe, Lydia; Squirrell, Daniel; Loebel, Antony

2016-07-01

In 2014, lurasidone, an atypical antipsychotic, was approved for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. It is an alternative treatment option to aripiprazole, and when compared with aripiprazole, lurasidone was associated with improved symptom reduction and reduced risk of weight gain and relapse. We conducted a cost-utility analysis of lurasidone versus aripiprazole from the perspective of healthcare services, using Scotland and Wales as specific case studies. A 10-year Markov model, incorporating a 6-week acute phase and a maintenance phase across three health states (discontinuation, relapse, death) was constructed. Six-week probabilities of discontinuation and adverse events were based on a published independent mixed-treatment comparison; long-term risks of relapse and discontinuation were from an indirect comparison. Costs included drug therapy, relapse, and outpatient, primary and residential care. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5 %. Utility estimates were taken from published literature, and cost effectiveness was expressed as total 10-year incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Lurasidone yielded a cost saving of £3383 and an improvement of 0.005 QALYs versus aripiprazole, in Scotland. Deterministic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that results were sensitive to relapse rates, while probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that lurasidone had the highest expected net benefit at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. The probability that lurasidone was a cost-effective treatment strategy was approximately 75 % at all willingness-to-pay thresholds, with similar results being obtained for the Welsh analysis. Our analysis suggests that lurasidone would provide an effective, cost-saving alternative for the healthcare service in the treatment of adult patients with schizophrenia.

Spatio-Temporal b Value Trends For a PMMA-PMMA Frictional Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J.; Selvadurai, P. A.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We develop a catalog of seismic events observed on a well-characterized PMMA-PMMA frictional interface to allow for an in depth study of spatio-temporal trends in along-fault b values. Recent studies of the 2009 L'Aquila [Gulia et al., GRL, 2016] and 2011 Tohoku-oki [Tormann et al., Nature Geo., 2015] events have found significant decrease in b values near the epicenters in the months leading up to rupture. Here, a fault is experimentally modeled using two Poly(methyl methacrylate) samples in a direct shear configuration. The initial, non-uniform distribution of asperities along the frictional interface was measured using a pressure sensitive film. Prior to a stick-slip event, localized seismicity was captured using 16 acoustic emission (AE) sensors, which provide the catalog events and b value analysis. We observe similar decreasing trends in b values prior to failure as observed in nature. We discuss the spatio-temporal variations in b values with respect to a slowly expanding shear rupture captured using dense `along-strike' arrays of 9 slip sensors and 24 strain gauges. The rate at which the shear rupture moved along the interface depended on the shear strength heterogeneity characterized by the non-uniform distribution of asperities. In the latter stages of nucleation, b values decrease primarily in a region with larger and more densely distributed asperities. The combined analysis will help confirm recent field observations and provide insight into the mechanics of foreshock sequences leading to earthquake rupture.

Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

2007-12-01

Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

Perspective-Shifts in Event Descriptions in Tamil Child Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Narasimhan, Bhuvana; Gullberg, Marianne

2006-01-01

Children are able to take multiple perspectives in talking about entities and events. But the nature of children's sensitivities to the complex patterns of perspective-taking in adult language is unknown. We examine perspective-taking in four- and six-year-old Tamil-speaking children describing placement events, as reflected in the use of a…

FPGAs in Space Environment and Design Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, Richard B.; Day, John H. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) in the space environment and design techniques. Details are given on the effects of the space radiation environment, total radiation dose, single event upset, single event latchup, single event transient, antifuse technology and gate rupture, proton upsets and sensitivity, and loss of functionality.

Diurnal remote sensing of coastal/oceanic waters: a radiometric analysis for Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events.

PubMed

Pahlevan, Nima; Lee, Zhongping; Hu, Chuanmin; Schott, John R

2014-02-01

Optical remote sensing systems aboard geostationary platforms can provide high-frequency observations of bio-optical properties in dynamical coastal/oceanic waters. From the end-user standpoint, it is recognized that the fidelity of daily science products relies heavily on the radiometric sensitivity/performance of the imaging system. This study aims to determine the theoretical detection limits for bio-optical properties observed diurnally from a geostationary orbit. The analysis is based upon coupled radiative transfer simulations and the minimum radiometric requirements defined for the GEOstationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. The diurnal detection limits are found for the optically active constituents of water, including near-surface concentrations of chlorophyll-a (CHL) and total suspended solids (TSS), and the absorption of colored dissolved organic matter (aCDOM). The diurnal top-of-atmosphere radiance (Lt) is modeled for several locations across the field of regard (FOR) to investigate the radiometric sensitivity at different imaging geometries. It is found that, in oceanic waters (CHL=0.07  mg/m3), detecting changes smaller than 0.01  mg/m3 in CHL is feasible for all locations and hours except for late afternoon observations on the edge of the FOR. For more trophic/turbid waters (0.6

Predictive value of high-sensitivity troponin-I for future adverse cardiovascular outcome in stable patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I(hs-TnI) and T levels(hs-TnT) are sensitive biomarkers of cardiomyocyte turnover or necrosis. Prior studies of the predictive role of hs-TnT in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) patients have yielded conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether hs-TnI, which is detectable in a higher proportion of normal subjects than hsTnT, is associated with a major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE) in T2DM patients. Methods and results We compared hs-TnI level in stored serum samples from 276 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 10 years; 57% male) with T2DM with that of 115 age-and sex-matched controls. All T2DM patients were prospectively followed up for at least 4 years for incidence of MACE including heart failure(HF), myocardial infarction(MI) and cardiovascular mortality. At baseline, 274(99%) patients with T2DM had detectable hs-TnI, and 57(21%) had elevated hs-TnI (male: 8.5 ng/L, female: 7.6 ng/L, above the 99th percentile in healthy controls). A total of 43 MACE occurred: HF(n = 18), MI(n = 11) and cardiovascular mortality(n = 14). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that an elevated hs-TnI was associated with MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Although multivariate analysis revealed that an elevated hs-TnI independently predicted MACE, it had limited sensitivity(62.7%) and positive predictive value(38.5%). Contrary to this, a normal hs-TnI level had an excellent negative predictive value(92.2%) for future MACE in patients with T2DM. Conclusion The present study demonstrates that elevated hs-TnI in patients with T2DM is associated with increased MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Importantly, a normal hs-TnI level has an excellent negative predictive value for future adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up. PMID:24661773

Response of hyporheic zones to transient forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, T.; Wu, L.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Krause, S.; Hannah, D. M.; Lewandowski, J.; Nuetzmann, G.

2017-12-01

Exchange of water, solutes, and energy between river channels and hyporheic zones (HZs) modulates biogeochemical cycling, regulates stream temperature and impacts ecological structure and function. Numerical modelling of HZ processes is required as field observations are challenging for transient flow. To gain a deeper mechanistic understanding of the effects of transient discharge on hyporheic exchange, we performed a systematic analysis using numerical experiments. In this case, we vary (i) the characteristics of time-varying flood events; (ii) river bedform geometry; (iii) river hydraulic geometry; and (iv) the magnitude and direction of groundwater fluxes (neutral, gaining and losing conditions). We conceptualize the stream bed as a two-dimensional system. Whereby the flow is driven by a dynamically changing head distribution at the water-sediment interface and is modulated by steady groundwater flow. Our model estimates both net values for a single bedform and spatial distributions of (i) the flow field; (ii) mean residence times; and (iii) the concentration of a conservative tracer. A detailed sensitivity analysis was performed by changing channel slope, flood characteristics, groundwater upwelling/downwelling fluxes and biogeochemical time-scales in different bedforms such as ripples, dunes and alternating bars. Results show that change of parameters can have a substantial impact on exchange fluxes which can lead to the expansion, contraction, emergence and/or dissipation of HZs . Our results also reveal that groundwater fluxes have different impacts on HZs during flood events, depending on the channel slope and bedform topography. It is found that topographies with smaller aspect ratios and shallower slopes are more affected by groundwater upwelling/downwelling fluxes during flood events. The analysis of biogeochemical transformations shows that discharge events can potentially affects the efficiencies of nitrate removal. Taking into consideration multiple morphological characteristics along with hydrological controls are important to improve model conceptualizations at the reach and watershed scale.

Lipoprotein(a) levels predict adverse vascular events after acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Mitsuda, Takayuki; Uemura, Yusuke; Ishii, Hideki; Takemoto, Kenji; Uchikawa, Tomohiro; Koyasu, Masayoshi; Ishikawa, Shinji; Miura, Ayako; Imai, Ryo; Iwamiya, Satoshi; Ozaki, Yuta; Kato, Tomohiro; Shibata, Rei; Watarai, Masato; Murohara, Toyoaki

2016-12-01

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], which is genetically determined, has been reported as an independent risk factor for atherosclerotic vascular disease. However, the prognostic value of Lp(a) for secondary vascular events in patients after coronary artery disease has not been fully elucidated. This 3-year observational study included a total of 176 patients with ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), whose Lp(a) levels were measured within 24 h after primary percutaneous coronary intervention. We divided enrolled patients into two groups according to Lp(a) level and investigated the association between Lp(a) and the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). A Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with higher Lp(a) levels had a higher incidence of MACCE than those with lower Lp(a) levels (log-rank P = 0.034). A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that Lp(a) levels were independently correlated with the occurrence of MACCE after adjusting for other classical risk factors of atherosclerotic vascular diseases (hazard ratio 1.030, 95 % confidence interval: 1.011-1.048, P = 0.002). In receiver-operating curve analysis, the cutoff value to maximize the predictive power of Lp(a) was 19.0 mg/dl (area under the curve = 0.674, sensitivity 69.2 %, specificity 62.0 %). Evaluation of Lp(a) in addition to the established coronary risk factors improved their predictive value for the occurrence of MACCE. In conclusion, Lp(a) levels at admission independently predict secondary vascular events in patients with STEMI. Lp(a) might provide useful information for the development of secondary prevention strategies in patients with myocardial infarction.

WFIRST: Searching for Microlens Planets in Very Wide Orbits and the MOA Microlensing Data Release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirao, Yuki; Bennett, David; Sumi, Takahiro; MOA Collaboration

2018-01-01

Gravitational microlensing is an unique technique to detect exoplanets down to low mass planets beyond the snow line because it is sensitive to planets orbiting near the Einstein ring radius of a few AU away from its host star, which is complementary to the other methods. Detecting such planets are important for understanding the formation of our solar system because gas giants and ice giants planets are believed to be formed beyond the snow line, where the protoplanetary disk is cold enough for ice to condense, in the core accretion theory. Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA) group has conducted high cadence survey observations towards the Galactic bulge to detect exoplanets since 2006 at Mt.John University Observatory in NZ using MOA-II 1.8 meter telescope equipped with a very wide field-of-view MOA-cam3 CCD camera. MOA has alerted about 600 microlensing events every year and detected dozens of exoplanets in wide orbits. Future space telescope, WFIRST will conduct survey observations towards the Galactic bulge and is expected to detect thousands of planets in wide orbit via microlensing to complete the census of exoplanets begun by Kepler Space telescope which found planets in close orbits via transit method. To contribute to the WFIRST and make the microlensing community larger, MOA will open its data from 2006 to 2014 to the public. Through the off-line analysis, we have found some short binary events which were not detected in the real time analysis. Short-timescale microlensing events are important because they are candidates of free-floating or wide-separation planets. The poster will present the data release and some results of the analysis of short-timescale binary events.

Search for the sterile neutrino mixing with the ICAL detector at INO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behera, S. P.; Ghosh, Anushree; Choubey, Sandhya; Datar, V. M.; Mishra, D. K.; Mohanty, A. K.

2017-05-01

The study has been carried out on the prospects of probing the sterile neutrino mixing with the magnetized iron calorimeter (ICAL) at the India-based Neutrino Observatory (INO), using atmospheric neutrinos as a source. The so-called 3 + 1 scenario is considered for active-sterile neutrino mixing and lead to projected exclusion curves in the sterile neutrino mass and mixing angle plane. The analysis is performed using the neutrino event generator NUANCE, modified for ICAL, and folded with the detector resolutions obtained by the INO collaboration from a full GEANT4-based detector simulation. A comparison has been made between the results obtained from the analysis considering only the energy and zenith angle of the muon and combined with the hadron energy due to the neutrino induced event. A small improvement has been observed with the addition of the hadron information to the muon. In the analysis we consider neutrinos coming from all zenith angles and the Earth matter effects are also included. The inclusion of events from all zenith angles improves the sensitivity to sterile neutrino mixing by about 35% over the result obtained using only down-going events. The improvement mainly stems from the impact of Earth matter effects on active-sterile mixing. The expected precision of ICAL on the active-sterile mixing is explored and the allowed confidence level (C.L.) contours presented. At the assumed true value of 10° for the sterile mixing angles and marginalization over Δ m^2_{41} and the sterile mixing angles, the upper bound at 90% C.L. (from two-parameter plots) is around 20^deg; for θ _{14} and θ _{34}, and about 12°c for θ _{24}.

The occurrence and transformation of lacustrine sediment gravity flow related to depositional variation and paleoclimate in the Lower Cretaceous Prosopis Formation of the Bongor Basin, Chad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Mingxuan; Zhu, Xiaomin; Geng, Mingyang; Zhu, Shifa; Liu, Wei

2017-10-01

Bed variability of sediment-gravity-flow deposits is quite prevalent in deep-marine settings, but it has not been well investigated in lacustrine settings. The depositional characteristics of various event beds are characterized in the North Slope Belt of the Bongor Basin (Chad), using detailed sedimentological, petrographic, geochemical as well as palynological analysis. Four bed types including classical turbidite bed, debrite bed, hybrid event bed, and hyperpycnite bed were distinguished based on their interpreted depositional processes. Variable mud contents of debrite beds and classic turbidite beds show distinct genetic characteristics in four core wells, whilst the high mud content of cohesive debrite interval and the low mud content of turbidite interval in hybrid event bed demonstrate the existence of flow transformation. Generally, several trace element and rare earth element proxy parameters show that these gravity-flow deposits of BS1-1 and D-3 cores are formed in more distal depositional settings than them of BN8 and BNE3 cores, which is also well consistent with sedimentological understandings achieved by seismic facies analysis. Although palynological results show a general hot arid climate during the deposition of the Prosopis Formation, but the climate-sensitive Sr/Cu ratio demonstrates that most sampled turbidite beds are postulated to be formed within a short humid pulse. The multi-approach analysis has illustrated that two potential forming mechanisms (delta-front-failure and flood-related origin) can be derived in different cored wells of such a small lacustrine rift basin. Differentiated flow transformation plays a significant role in the depositional characteristics and heterogenetic distribution of these event deposits.

Impact of Climate Change on the Climatology of Vb Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messmer, Martina; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Blumer, Sandro; Raible, Christoph C.

2017-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones of type Vb develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward, leading to heavy precipitation over Central Europe and posing a major natural hazard. Since such cyclones are high-impact events that lead to important economical and personal damage, in Central Europe, and especially in the Alpine region, understanding their sensitivity to climate change is important to provide suitable adaptation measures. This communication aims at investigating the impact of climate change in Vb cyclones through a climate simulation covering the whole 21st century performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Further, some selected Vb episodes within the simulation are downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The analysis focuses on two different time periods. The reference period spans the ERA-Interim period 1979 to 2013, whereas the other one covers the last 30 years of the 21st century 2070-2099. The simulation uses the emissions from the business as usual scenario (RCP8.5). For both periods, the Vb cyclones were identified using a tracking tool and their main properties were characterized. During the reference period 86 Vb cyclones can be identified overall, which corresponds to approximately 2.5 Vb cyclones per year. This number corresponds very well to the 82 Vb cyclones found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset in the same period of time. This number is reduced under future climate conditions, leading to 48 Vb cyclones in total, or to 1.6 Vb cyclones per year on average. Despite the reduction in their number, results indicate that there is a tendency for intensification in precipitation for high-impact Vb events of around 10% over the Alpine region in the future compared to the ones between 1979 and 2013. Interestingly, while the summer months are most prone for the occurrence of the 10 heaviest precipitation Vb events in the current conditions, the 10 heaviest precipitation Vb events in the future become shifted towards spring and also fall months, implicating an important change in the seasonality of the phenomenon. In order to gain more insight on the changes in the processes responsible for such changes in precipitation and occurrence of Vb events, we downscaled the 10 most precipitation intense Vb events of each of the two periods. Preliminary results indicate that future Vb events tend to affect more strongly the eastern costs of the Mediterranean Sea, while the impact in the Alpine region becomes slightly ameliorated compared to current situations. This result is in agreement with results previously obtained through the analysis of a set of highly idealized sensitivity experiments, and can be related to an increasing instability at the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea induced by a stronger latent heating over the sea under future conditions.

The role of tributary mixing in chemical variations at a karst spring, Milandre, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, J.; Jeannin, P.-Y.; Cornaton, F.

2007-01-01

SummarySolute concentration variations during flood events were investigated in a karst aquifer of the Swiss Jura. Observations were made at the spring, and at the three main subterraneous tributaries feeding the spring. A simple transient flow and transport numerical model was able to reproduce chemographs and hydrographs observed at the spring, as a result of a mixing of the concentration and discharge of the respective tributaries. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model showed that it is possible to produce chemical variations at the spring even if all tributaries have constant (but different for each of them) solute concentrations. This process is called tributary mixing. The good match between observed and modelled curves indicate that, in the phreatic zone, tributary mixing is probably an important process that shapes spring chemographs. Chemical reactions and other mixing components (e.g. from low permeability volumes) have a limited influence. Dissolution-related (calcium, bicarbonate, specific conductance) and pollution-related parameters (nitrate, chloride, potassium) displayed slightly different behaviours: during moderate flood events, the former showed limited variations compared to the latter. During large flood events, both presented chemographs with significant changes. No significant event water participates in moderate flood events and tributary mixing will be the major process shaping chemographs. Variations are greater for parameters with higher spatial variability (e.g. pollution-related). Whereas for large flood events, the contribution of event water becomes significant and influences the chemographs of all the parameters. As a result, spring water vulnerability to an accidental pollution is low during moderate flood events and under base flow conditions. It strongly increases during large flood events, because event water contributes to the spring discharge.

Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful

2018-05-01

Accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall is crucial for the improvement of flood warning to prevent loss of life and property damage due to flash-flood-related landslides in the hilly region of Bangladesh. Forecasting heavy rainfall events is challenging where microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model play an important role. In this study, a comparison was made between observed and simulated rainfall using 19 different combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes available in WRF over Bangladesh. Two severe rainfall events during 11th June 2007 and 24-27th June 2012, over the eastern hilly region of Bangladesh, were selected for performance evaluation using a number of indicators. A combination of the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme with Tiedtke cumulus scheme is found as the most suitable scheme for reproducing those events. Another combination of the single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with New Grell 3D cumulus schemes also showed reasonable performance in forecasting heavy rainfall over this region. The sensitivity analysis confirms that cumulus schemes play a greater role than microphysics schemes for reproducing the heavy rainfall events using WRF.

Usefulness of microvolt T-wave alternans for prediction of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy: results from a prospective observational study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohnloser, Stefan H.; Klingenheben, Thomas; Bloomfield, Daniel; Dabbous, Omar; Cohen, Richard J.

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the ability of microvolt-level T-wave alternans (MTWA) to identify prospectively patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) at risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events and to compare its predictive accuracy with that of conventional risk stratifiers. BACKGROUND: Patients with DCM are at increased risk of sudden death from ventricular tachyarrhythmias. At present, there are no established methods of assessing this risk. METHODS: A total of 137 patients with DCM underwent risk stratification through assessment of MTWA, left ventricular ejection fraction, baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), heart rate variability, presence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT), signal-averaged electrocardiogram, and presence of intraventricular conduction defect. The study end point was either sudden death, resuscitated ventricular fibrillation, or documented hemodynamically unstable VT. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 14 +/- 6 months, MTWA and BRS were significant univariate predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events (p < 0.035 and p < 0.015, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that only MTWA was a significant predictor. CONCLUSIONS: Microvolt-level T-wave alternans is a powerful independent predictor of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in patients with DCM.

Investigating Montara platform oil spill accident by implementing RST-OIL approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satriano, Valeria; Ciancia, Emanuele; Coviello, Irina; Di Polito, Carmine; Lacava, Teodosio; Pergola, Nicola; Tramutoli, Valerio

2016-04-01

Oil Spills represent one of the most harmful events to marine ecosystems and their timely detection is crucial for their mitigation and management. The potential of satellite data for their detection and monitoring has been largely investigated. Traditional satellite techniques usually identify oil spill presence applying a fixed threshold scheme only after the occurrence of an event, which make them not well suited for their prompt identification. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) approach, in its oil spill detection version (RST-OIL), being based on the comparison of the latest satellite acquisition with its historical value, previously identified, allows the automatic and near real-time detection of events. Such a technique has been already successfully applied on data from different sources (AVHRR-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and MODIS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) showing excellent performance in detecting oil spills both during day- and night-time conditions, with an high level of sensitivity (detection also of low intensity events) and reliability (no false alarm on scene). In this paper, RST-OIL has been implemented on MODIS thermal infrared data for the analysis of the Montara Platform (Timor Sea - Australia) oil spill disaster occurred in August 2009. Preliminary achievements are presented and discussed in this paper.

Measurement of underlying event characteristics using charged particles in pp collisions at s=900GeV and 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; Abdelalim, A. A.; Abdesselam, A.; Abdinov, O.; Abi, B.; Abolins, M.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Acerbi, E.; Acharya, B. S.; Ackers, M.; Adams, D. L.; Addy, T. N.; Adelman, J.; Aderholz, M.; Adomeit, S.; Adragna, P.; Adye, T.; Aefsky, S.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Aharrouche, M.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahles, F.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmed, H.; Ahsan, M.; Aielli, G.; Akdogan, T.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akimoto, G.; Akimov, A. V.; Alam, M. S.; Alam, M. A.; Albrand, S.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Aleppo, M.; Alessandria, F.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexandre, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Aliyev, M.; Allport, P. P.; Allwood-Spiers, S. E.; Almond, J.; Aloisio, A.; Alon, R.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, J.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amako, K.; Amaral, P.; Amelung, C.; Ammosov, V. V.; Amorim, A.; Amorós, G.; Amram, N.; Anastopoulos, C.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Andrieux, M.-L.; Anduaga, X. S.; Angerami, A.; Anghinolfi, F.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antonaki, A.; Antonelli, M.; Antonelli, S.; Antos, J.; Antunovic, B.; Anulli, F.; Aoun, S.; Apolle, R.; Arabidze, G.; Aracena, I.; Arai, Y.; Arce, A. T. H.; Archambault, J. P.; Arfaoui, S.; Arguin, J.-F.; Argyropoulos, T.; Arik, E.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Arms, K. E.; Armstrong, S. R.; Arnaez, O.; Arnault, C.; Artamonov, A.; Arutinov, D.; Asai, S.; Asfandiyarov, R.; Ask, S.; Åsman, B.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astbury, A.; Astvatsatourov, A.; Atoian, G.; Aubert, B.; Auerbach, B.; Auge, E.; Augsten, K.; Aurousseau, M.; Austin, N.; Avramidou, R.; Axen, D.; Ay, C.; Azuelos, G.; Azuma, Y.; Baak, M. A.; Baccaglioni, G.; Bacci, C.; Bach, A. M.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Bachy, G.; Backes, M.; Badescu, E.; Bagnaia, P.; Bai, Y.; Bailey, D. C.; Bain, T.; Baines, J. T.; Baker, O. K.; Baker, S.; Baltasar Dos Santos Pedrosa, F.; Banas, E.; Banerjee, P.; Banerjee, Sw.; Banfi, D.; Bangert, A.; Bansal, V.; Bansil, H. S.; Barak, L.; Baranov, S. P.; Barashkou, A.; Barbaro Galtieri, A.; Barber, T.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Bardin, D. Y.; Barillari, T.; Barisonzi, M.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Baroncelli, A.; Barr, A. J.; Barreiro, F.; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, J.; Barrillon, P.; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartsch, D.; Bates, R. L.; Batkova, L.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, A.; Battistin, M.; Battistoni, G.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beare, B.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Beccherle, R.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Beckingham, M.; Becks, K. H.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bee, C.; Begel, M.; Behar Harpaz, S.; Behera, P. K.; Beimforde, M.; Belanger-Champagne, C.; Belhorma, B.; Bell, P. J.; Bell, W. H.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellina, F.; Bellomo, G.; Bellomo, M.; Belloni, A.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Ben Ami, S.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Benchouk, C.; Bendel, M.; Benedict, B. H.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Benjamin, D. P.; Benoit, M.; Bensinger, J. R.; Benslama, K.; Bentvelsen, S.; Berge, D.; Bergeaas Kuutmann, E.; Berger, N.; Berghaus, F.; Berglund, E.; Beringer, J.; Bernardet, K.; Bernat, P.; Bernhard, R.; Bernius, C.; Berry, T.; Bertin, A.; Bertinelli, F.; Bertolucci, F.; Besana, M. I.; Besson, N.; Bethke, S.; Bhimji, W.; Bianchi, R. M.; Bianco, M.; Biebel, O.; Biesiada, J.; Biglietti, M.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biscarat, C.; Bischof, R.; Bitenc, U.; Black, K. M.; Blair, R. E.; Blanchard, J.-B.; Blanchot, G.; Blocker, C.; Blocki, J.; Blondel, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Boaretto, C.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. B.; Bocci, A.; Bock, R.; Boddy, C. R.; Boehler, M.; Boek, J.; Boelaert, N.; Böser, S.; Bogaerts, J. A.; Bogdanchikov, A.; Bogouch, A.; Bohm, C.; Boisvert, V.; Bold, T.; Boldea, V.; Boonekamp, M.; Boorman, G.; Booth, C. N.; Booth, P.; Booth, J. R. A.; Bordoni, S.; Borer, C.; Borisov, A.; Borissov, G.; Borjanovic, I.; Borroni, S.; Bos, K.; Boscherini, D.; Bosman, M.; Boterenbrood, H.; Botterill, D.; Bouchami, J.; Boudreau, J.; Bouhova-Thacker, E. V.; Boulahouache, C.; Bourdarios, C.; Bousson, N.; Boveia, A.; Boyd, J.; Boyko, I. R.; Bozhko, N. I.; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, I.; Braccini, S.; Bracinik, J.; Braem, A.; Brambilla, E.; Branchini, P.; Brandenburg, G. W.; Brandt, A.; Brandt, G.; Brandt, O.; Bratzler, U.; Brau, B.; Brau, J. E.; Braun, H. M.; Brelier, B.; Bremer, J.; Brenner, R.; Bressler, S.; Breton, D.; Brett, N. D.; Bright-Thomas, P. G.; Britton, D.; Brochu, F. M.; Brock, I.; Brock, R.; Brodbeck, T. J.; Brodet, E.; Broggi, F.; Bromberg, C.; Brooijmans, G.; Brooks, W. K.; Brown, G.; Brubaker, E.; Bruckman de Renstrom, P. A.; Bruncko, D.; Bruneliere, R.; Brunet, S.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Bruschi, M.; Buanes, T.; Bucci, F.; Buchanan, J.; Buchanan, N. J.; Buchholz, P.; Buckingham, R. M.; Buckley, A. G.; Buda, S. I.; Budagov, I. A.; Budick, B.; Büscher, V.; Bugge, L.; Buira-Clark, D.; Buis, E. J.; Bulekov, O.; Bunse, M.; Buran, T.; Burckhart, H.; Burdin, S.; Burgess, T.; Burke, S.; Busato, E.; Bussey, P.; Buszello, C. P.; Butin, F.; Butler, B.; Butler, J. M.; Buttar, C. M.; Butterworth, J. M.; Buttinger, W.; Byatt, T.; Cabrera Urbán, S.; Caccia, M.; Caforio, D.; Cakir, O.; Calafiura, P.; Calderini, G.; Calfayan, P.; Calkins, R.; Caloba, L. P.; Caloi, R.; Calvet, D.; Calvet, S.; Camard, A.; Camarri, P.; Cambiaghi, M.; Cameron, D.; Cammin, J.; Campana, S.; Campanelli, M.; Canale, V.; Canelli, F.; Canepa, A.; Cantero, J.; Capasso, L.; Capeans Garrido, M. D. M.; Caprini, I.; Caprini, M.; Caprio, M.; Capriotti, D.; Capua, M.; Caputo, R.; Caramarcu, C.; Cardarelli, R.; Carli, T.; Carlino, G.; Carminati, L.; Caron, B.; Caron, S.; Carpentieri, C.; Carrillo Montoya, G. D.; Carron Montero, S.; Carter, A. A.; Carter, J. R.; Carvalho, J.; Casadei, D.; Casado, M. P.; Cascella, M.; Caso, C.; Castaneda Hernandez, A. M.; Castaneda-Miranda, E.; Castillo Gimenez, V.; Castro, N. F.; Cataldi, G.; Cataneo, F.; Catinaccio, A.; Catmore, J. R.; Cattai, A.; Cattani, G.; Caughron, S.; Cavallari, A.; Cavalleri, P.; Cavalli, D.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cavasinni, V.; Cazzato, A.; Ceradini, F.; Cerna, C.; Cerqueira, A. S.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Cerutti, F.; Cervetto, M.; Cetin, S. A.; Cevenini, F.; Chafaq, A.; Chakraborty, D.; Chan, K.; Chapleau, B.; Chapman, J. D.; Chapman, J. W.; Chareyre, E.; Charlton, D. G.; Chavda, V.; Cheatham, S.; Chekanov, S.; Chekulaev, S. V.; Chelkov, G. A.; Chen, H.; Chen, L.; Chen, S.; Chen, T.; Chen, X.; Cheng, S.; Cheplakov, A.; Chepurnov, V. F.; Cherkaoui El Moursli, R.; Chernyatin, V.; Cheu, E.; Cheung, S. L.; Chevalier, L.; Chevallier, F.; Chiefari, G.; Chikovani, L.; Childers, J. T.; Chilingarov, A.; Chiodini, G.; Chizhov, M. V.; Choudalakis, G.; Chouridou, S.; Christidi, I. A.; Christov, A.; Chromek-Burckhart, D.; Chu, M. L.; Chudoba, J.; Ciapetti, G.; Ciftci, A. K.; Ciftci, R.; Cinca, D.; Cindro, V.; Ciobotaru, M. D.; Ciocca, C.; Ciocio, A.; Cirilli, M.; Clark, A.; Clark, P. J.; Cleland, W.; Clemens, J. C.; Clement, B.; Clement, C.; Clifft, R. W.; Coadou, Y.; Cobal, M.; Coccaro, A.; Cochran, J.; Coe, P.; Cogan, J. G.; Coggeshall, J.; Cogneras, E.; Cojocaru, C. D.; Colas, J.; Colijn, A. P.; Collard, C.; Collins, N. J.; Collins-Tooth, C.; Collot, J.; Colon, G.; Coluccia, R.; Comune, G.; Conde Muiño, P.; Coniavitis, E.; Conidi, M. C.; Consonni, M.; Constantinescu, S.; Conta, C.; Conventi, F.; Cook, J.; Cooke, M.; Cooper, B. D.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Cooper-Smith, N. J.; Copic, K.; Cornelissen, T.; Corradi, M.; Correard, S.; Corriveau, F.; Cortes-Gonzalez, A.; Cortiana, G.; Costa, G.; Costa, M. J.; Costanzo, D.; Costin, T.; Côté, D.; Coura Torres, R.; Courneyea, L.; Cowan, G.; Cowden, C.; Cox, B. E.; Cranmer, K.; Cristinziani, M.; Crosetti, G.; Crupi, R.; Crépé-Renaudin, S.; Cuenca Almenar, C.; Cuhadar Donszelmann, T.; Cuneo, S.; Curatolo, M.; Curtis, C. J.; Cwetanski, P.; Czirr, H.; Czyczula, Z.; D'Auria, S.; D'Onofrio, M.; D'Orazio, A.; da Rocha Gesualdi Mello, A.; da Silva, P. V. M.; da Via, C.; Dabrowski, W.; Dahlhoff, A.; Dai, T.; Dallapiccola, C.; Dallison, S. J.; Dam, M.; Dameri, M.; Damiani, D. S.; Danielsson, H. O.; Dankers, R.; Dannheim, D.; Dao, V.; Darbo, G.; Darlea, G. L.; Daum, C.; Dauvergne, J. P.; Davey, W.; Davidek, T.; Davidson, N.; Davidson, R.; Davies, M.; Davison, A. R.; Dawe, E.; Dawson, I.; Dawson, J. W.; Daya, R. K.; de, K.; de Asmundis, R.; de Castro, S.; de Cecco, S.; de Graat, J.; de Groot, N.; de Jong, P.; de La Cruz-Burelo, E.; de La Taille, C.; de Lotto, B.; de Mora, L.; de Nooij, L.; de Oliveira Branco, M.; de Pedis, D.; de Saintignon, P.; de Salvo, A.; de Sanctis, U.; de Santo, A.; de Vivie de Regie, J. B.; Dean, S.; Dedes, G.; Dedovich, D. V.; Degenhardt, J.; Dehchar, M.; Deile, M.; Del Papa, C.; Del Peso, J.; Del Prete, T.; Dell'Acqua, A.; Dell'Asta, L.; Della Pietra, M.; Della Volpe, D.; Delmastro, M.; Delpierre, P.; Delruelle, N.; Delsart, P. A.; Deluca, C.; Demers, S.; Demichev, M.; Demirkoz, B.; Deng, J.; Denisov, S. P.; Dennis, C.; Derendarz, D.; Derkaoui, J. E.; Derue, F.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Deviveiros, P. O.; Dewhurst, A.; Dewilde, B.; Dhaliwal, S.; Dhullipudi, R.; di Ciaccio, A.; di Ciaccio, L.; di Girolamo, A.; di Girolamo, B.; di Luise, S.; di Mattia, A.; di Nardo, R.; di Simone, A.; di Sipio, R.; Diaz, M. A.; Diaz Gomez, M. M.; Diblen, F.; Diehl, E. B.; Dietl, H.; Dietrich, J.; Dietzsch, T. A.; Diglio, S.; Dindar Yagci, K.; Dingfelder, J.; Dionisi, C.; Dita, P.; Dita, S.; Dittus, F.; Djama, F.; Djilkibaev, R.; Djobava, T.; Do Vale, M. A. B.; Do Valle Wemans, A.; Doan, T. K. O.; Dobbs, M.; Dobinson, R.; Dobos, D.; Dobson, E.; Dobson, M.; Dodd, J.; Dogan, O. 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J.; Vellidis, C.; Veloso, F.; Veness, R.; Veneziano, S.; Ventura, A.; Ventura, D.; Ventura, S.; Venturi, M.; Venturi, N.; Vercesi, V.; Verducci, M.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, J. C.; Vertogardov, L.; Vetterli, M. C.; Vichou, I.; Vickey, T.; Viehhauser, G. H. A.; Viel, S.; Villa, M.; Villaplana Perez, M.; Vilucchi, E.; Vincter, M. G.; Vinek, E.; Vinogradov, V. B.; Virchaux, M.; Viret, S.; Virzi, J.; Vitale, A.; Vitells, O.; Vivarelli, I.; Vives Vaque, F.; Vlachos, S.; Vlasak, M.; Vlasov, N.; Vogel, A.; Vokac, P.; Volpi, M.; Volpini, G.; von der Schmitt, H.; von Loeben, J.; von Radziewski, H.; von Toerne, E.; Vorobel, V.; Vorobiev, A. P.; Vorwerk, V.; Vos, M.; Voss, R.; Voss, T. T.; Vossebeld, J. H.; Vovenko, A. S.; Vranjes, N.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vrba, V.; Vreeswijk, M.; Vu Anh, T.; Vuillermet, R.; Vukotic, I.; Wagner, W.; Wagner, P.; Wahlen, H.; Wahrmund, S.; Wakabayashi, J.; Walbersloh, J.; Walch, S.; Walder, J.; Walker, R.; Walkowiak, W.; Wall, R.; Waller, P.; Wang, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, J. C.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Warsinsky, M.; Wastie, R.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, A. T.; Waugh, B. M.; Weber, J.; Weber, M.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, P.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weingarten, J.; Weiser, C.; Wellenstein, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wen, M.; Wenaus, T.; Wendler, S.; Weng, Z.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M.; Werner, P.; Werth, M.; Wessels, M.; Whalen, K.; Wheeler-Ellis, S. J.; Whitaker, S. P.; White, A.; White, M. J.; Whitehead, S. R.; Whiteson, D.; Whittington, D.; Wicek, F.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wienemann, P.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik, L. A. M.; Wildauer, A.; Wildt, M. A.; Wilhelm, I.; Wilkens, H. G.; Will, J. Z.; Williams, E.; Williams, H. H.; Willis, W.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wilson, M. G.; Wilson, A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winkelmann, S.; Winklmeier, F.; Wittgen, M.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Wooden, G.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Woudstra, M. J.; Wraight, K.; Wright, C.; Wrona, B.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wulf, E.; Wunstorf, R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xaplanteris, L.; Xella, S.; Xie, S.; Xie, Y.; Xu, C.; Xu, D.; Xu, G.; Yabsley, B.; Yamada, M.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamamura, T.; Yamaoka, J.; Yamazaki, T.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, S.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yanush, S.; Yao, W.-M.; Yao, Y.; Yasu, Y.; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yilmaz, M.; Yoosoofmiya, R.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, R.; Young, C.; Youssef, S.; Yu, D.; Yu, J.; Yu, J.; Yuan, L.; Yurkewicz, A.; Zaets, V. G.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zajacova, Z.; Zalite, Yo. K.; Zanello, L.; Zarzhitsky, P.; Zaytsev, A.; Zdrazil, M.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zeller, M.; Zema, P. F.; Zemla, A.; Zendler, C.; Zenin, A. V.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zenonos, Z.; Zenz, S.; Zerwas, D.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Zhan, Z.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, L.; Zhao, T.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, S.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhuravlov, V.; Zieminska, D.; Zilka, B.; Zimmermann, R.; Zimmermann, S.; Zimmermann, S.; Ziolkowski, M.; Zitoun, R.; Živković, L.; Zmouchko, V. V.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Zolnierowski, Y.; Zsenei, A.; Zur Nedden, M.; Zutshi, V.; Zwalinski, L.

2011-06-01

Measurements of charged particle distributions, sensitive to the underlying event, have been performed with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are based on data collected using a minimum-bias trigger to select proton-proton collisions at center-of-mass energies of 900 GeV and 7 TeV. The “underlying event” is defined as those aspects of a hadronic interaction attributed not to the hard scattering process, but rather to the accompanying interactions of the rest of the proton. Three regions are defined in azimuthal angle with respect to the highest transverse momentum charged particle in the event, such that the region transverse to the dominant momentum-flow is most sensitive to the underlying event. In each of these regions, distributions of the charged particle multiplicity, transverse momentum density, and average pT are measured. The data show generally higher underlying event activity than that predicted by Monte Carlo models tuned to pre-LHC data.

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, E. N.; Meehan, P. M.; Dempster, A. P.

2001-01-01

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

DEM analysis of FOXSI-2 microflare using AIA observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athiray Panchapakesan, Subramania; Glesener, Lindsay; Vievering, Juliana; Camilo Buitrago-Casas, Juan; Christe, Steven; Inglis, Andrew; Krucker, Sam; Musset, Sophie

2017-08-01

The second flight of Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager (FOXSI) sounding rocket experiment was successfully completed on 11 December 2014. FOXSI makes direct imaging and spectral observation of the Sun in hard X-rays using grazing incidence optics modules which focus X-rays onto seven focal plane detectors kept at a 2m distance, in the energy range 4 to 20 keV, to study particle acceleration and coronal heating. Significant HXR emissions were observed by FOXSI during microflare events with A0.5 and A2.5 class, as classified by GOES, that occurred during FOXSI-2 flight.Spectral analysis of FOXSI data for these events indicate presence of plasma at higher temperatures (>10MK). We attempt to study the plasma content in the corona at different temperatures, characterized by the differential emission measure (DEM), over the FOXSI-2 observed flare regions using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) data. We utilize AIA observations in different EUV filters that are sensitive to ionized iron lines, to determine the DEM by using a regularized inversion method. This poster will show the properties of hot plasma as derived from FOXSI-2 HXR spectra with supporting DEM analysis using AIA observations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination among Libyan children using a simple economic model

PubMed Central

Alkoshi, Salem; Maimaiti, Namaitijiang; Dahlui, Maznah

2014-01-01

Background Rotavirus infection is a major cause of childhood diarrhea in Libya. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in that country. Methods We used a published decision tree model that has been adapted to the Libyan situation to analyze a birth cohort of 160,000 children. The evaluation of diarrhea events in three public hospitals helped to estimate the rotavirus burden. The economic analysis was done from two perspectives: health care provider and societal. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in some values of the variables selected. Results The three hospitals received 545 diarrhea patients aged≤5 with 311 (57%) rotavirus positive test results during a 9-month period. The societal cost for treatment of a case of rotavirus diarrhea was estimated at US$ 661/event. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with a vaccine price of US$ 27 per course was US$ 8,972 per quality-adjusted life year gained from the health care perspective. From a societal perspective, the analysis shows cost savings of around US$ 16 per child. Conclusion The model shows that rotavirus vaccination could be economically a very attractive intervention in Libya. PMID:25499622

Impervious surfaces and sewer pipe effects on stormwater runoff temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabouri, F.; Gharabaghi, B.; Mahboubi, A. A.; McBean, E. A.

2013-10-01

The warming effect of the impervious surfaces in urban catchment areas and the cooling effect of underground storm sewer pipes on stormwater runoff temperature are assessed. Four urban residential catchment areas in the Cities of Guelph and Kitchener, Ontario, Canada were evaluated using a combination of runoff monitoring and modelling. The stormwater level and water temperature were monitored at 10 min interval at the inlet of the stormwater management ponds for three summers 2009, 2010 and 2011. The warming effect of the ponds is also studied, however discussed in detail in a separate paper. An artificial neural network (ANN) model for stormwater temperature was trained and validated using monitoring data. Stormwater runoff temperature was most sensitive to event mean temperature of the rainfall (EMTR) with a normalized sensitivity coefficient (Sn) of 1.257. Subsequent levels of sensitivity corresponded to the longest sewer pipe length (LPL), maximum rainfall intensity (MI), percent impervious cover (IMP), rainfall depth (R), initial asphalt temperature (AspT), pipe network density (PND), and rainfall duration (D), respectively. Percent impervious cover of the catchment area (IMP) was the key parameter that represented the warming effect of the paved surfaces; sensitivity analysis showed IMP increase from 20% to 50% resulted in runoff temperature increase by 3 °C. The longest storm sewer pipe length (LPL) and the storm sewer pipe network density (PND) are the two key parameters that control the cooling effect of the underground sewer system; sensitivity analysis showed LPL increase from 345 to 966 m, resulted in runoff temperature drop by 2.5 °C.

CUORE-0 results and prospects for the CUORE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremonesi, O.; Artusa, D. R.; Avignone, F. T.; Azzolini, O.; Balata, M.; Banks, T. I.; Bari, G.; Beeman, J.; Bellini, F.; Bersani, A.; Biassoni, M.; Brofferio, C.; Bucci, C.; Camacho, A.; Caminata, A.; Canonica, L.; Cao, X.; Capelli, S.; Cappelli, L.; Carbone, L.; Cardani, L.; Casali, N.; Cassina, L.; Chiesa, D.; Chott, N.; Clemenza, M.; Copello, S.; Cosmelli, C.; Creswick, R. J.; Cushman, J. S.; Dafinei, I.; Dally, A.; Datskov, V.; Dell'Oro, S.; Deninno, M. M.; Di Domizio, S.; di Vacri, M. L.; Drobizhev, A.; Ejzak, L.; Fang, D. Q.; Farach, H. A.; Faverzani, M.; Fernandes, G.; Ferri, E.; Ferroni, F.; Fiorini, E.; Franceschi, M. A.; Freedman, S. J.; Fujikawa, B. K.; Giachero, A.; Gironi, L.; Giuliani, A.; Gorla, P.; Gotti, C.; Gutierrez, T. D.; Haller, E. E.; Han, K.; Heeger, K. M.; Hennings-Yeomans, R.; Hickerson, K. P.; Huang, H. Z.; Kadel, R.; Keppel, G.; Kolomensky, Yu. G.; Li, Y. L.; Ligi, C.; Lim, K. E.; Liu, X.; Ma, Y. G.; Maiano, C.; Maino, M.; Martinez, M.; Maruyama, R. H.; Mei, Y.; Moggi, N.; Morganti, S.; Napolitano, T.; Nastasi, M.; Nisi, S.; Nones, C.; Norman, E. B.; Nucciotti, A.; O'Donnell, T.; Orio, F.; Orlandi, D.; Ouellet, J. L.; Pagliarone, C. E.; Pallavicini, M.; Palmieri, V.; Pattavina, L.; Pavan, M.; Pedretti, M.; Pessina, G.; Pettinacci, V.; Piperno, G.; Pira, C.; Pirro, S.; Pozzi, S.; Previtali, E.; Rosenfeld, C.; Rusconi, C.; Sala, E.; Sangiorgio, S.; Scielzo, N. D.; Sisti, M.; Smith, A. R.; Taffarello, L.; Tenconi, M.; Terranova, F.; Tomei, C.; Trentalange, S.; Ventura, G.; Vignati, M.; Wang, B. S.; Wang, H. W.; Wielgus, L.; Wilson, J.; Winslow, L. A.; Wise, T.; Woodcraft, A.; Zanotti, L.; Zarra, C.; Zhang, G. Q.; Zhu, B. X.; Zucchelli, S.

2015-07-01

With 741 kg of TeO2 crystals and an excellent energy resolution of 5 keV (0.2%) at the region of interest, the CUORE (Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events) experiment aims at searching for neutrinoless double beta decay of 130Te with unprecedented sensitivity. Expected to start data taking in 2015, CUORE is currently in an advanced construction phase at LNGS. CUORE projected neutrinoless double beta decay half-life sensitivity is 1.6 × 1026 y at 1σ (9.5 × 1025 y at the 90 % confidence level), in five years of live time, corresponding to an upper limit on the effective Majorana mass in the range 40-100 meV (50-130 meV). Further background rejection with auxiliary bolometric detectors could improve CUORE sensitivity and competitiveness of bolometric detectors towards a full analysis of the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy. CUORE-0 was built to test and demonstrate the performance of the upcoming CUORE experiment. It consists of a single CUORE tower (52 TeO2 bolometers of 750 g each, arranged in a 13 floor structure) constructed strictly following CUORE recipes both for materials and assembly procedures. An experiment its own, CUORE-0 is expected to reach a sensitivity to the ββ(0ν) half-life of 130Te around 3×1024 y in one year of live time. We present an update of the data, corresponding to an exposure of 18.1 kg y. An analysis of the background indicates that the CUORE performance goal is satisfied while the sensitivity goal is within reach.

Deep Long-period Seismicity Beneath the Executive Committee Range, Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica, Studied Using Subspace Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aster, R. C.; McMahon, N. D.; Myers, E. K.; Lough, A. C.

2015-12-01

Lough et al. (2014) first detected deep sub-icecap magmatic events beneath the Executive Committee Range volcanoes of Marie Byrd Land. Here, we extend the identification and analysis of these events in space and time utilizing subspace detection. Subspace detectors provide a highly effective methodology for studying events within seismic swarms that have similar moment tensor and Green's function characteristics and are particularly effective for identifying low signal-to-noise events. Marie Byrd Land (MBL) is an extremely remote continental region that is nearly completely covered by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The southern extent of Marie Byrd Land lies within the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS), which includes the volcanic Executive Committee Range (ECR). The ECR shows north-to-south progression of volcanism across the WARS during the Holocene. In 2013, the POLENET/ANET seismic data identified two swarms of seismic activity in 2010 and 2011. These events have been interpreted as deep, long-period (DLP) earthquakes based on depth (25-40 km) and low frequency content. The DLP events in MBL lie beneath an inferred sub-WAIS volcanic edifice imaged with ice penetrating radar and have been interpreted as a present location of magmatic intrusion. The magmatic swarm activity in MBL provides a promising target for advanced subspace detection and temporal, spatial, and event size analysis of an extensive deep long period earthquake swarm using a remote seismographic network. We utilized a catalog of 1,370 traditionally identified DLP events to construct subspace detectors for the six nearest stations and analyzed two years of data spanning 2010-2011. Association of these detections into events resulted in an approximate ten-fold increase in number of locatable earthquakes. In addition to the two previously identified swarms during early 2010 and early 2011, we find sustained activity throughout the two years of study that includes several previously unidentified periods of heightened activity. Correlation with large global earthquakes suggests that the DLP activity is not sensitive to remote teleseismic triggering.

REGIONAL-SCALE WIND FIELD CLASSIFICATION EMPLOYING CLUSTER ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glascoe, L G; Glaser, R E; Chin, H S

2004-06-17

The classification of time-varying multivariate regional-scale wind fields at a specific location can assist event planning as well as consequence and risk analysis. Further, wind field classification involves data transformation and inference techniques that effectively characterize stochastic wind field variation. Such a classification scheme is potentially useful for addressing overall atmospheric transport uncertainty and meteorological parameter sensitivity issues. Different methods to classify wind fields over a location include the principal component analysis of wind data (e.g., Hardy and Walton, 1978) and the use of cluster analysis for wind data (e.g., Green et al., 1992; Kaufmann and Weber, 1996). The goalmore » of this study is to use a clustering method to classify the winds of a gridded data set, i.e, from meteorological simulations generated by a forecast model.« less

Investigations of Selected Historically Important Syndromic Outbreaks: Impact and Lessons Learned for Public Health Preparedness and Response

PubMed Central

Posid, Joseph M.; Popovic, Tanja

2012-01-01

Public health readiness has increased at all jurisdictional levels because of increased sensitivity to threats. Since 2001, with billions of dollars invested to bolster the public health system’s capacity, the public expects that public health will identify the etiology of and respond to events more rapidly. However, when etiologies are unknown at the onset of the investigation but interventions must be implemented, public health practitioners must benefit from past investigations’ lessons to strengthen preparedness for emerging threats. We have identified such potentially actionable lessons learned from historically important public health events that occurred primarily as syndromes for which the etiological agent initially was unknown. Ongoing analysis of investigations can advance our capability to recognize and investigate syndromes and other problems and implement the most appropriate interventions. PMID:22571706

Measuring the speed resolution of extensive air showers at the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesterling, Kathleen; Sarazin, Fred

2009-10-01

Ultra-high energy cosmic rays induce extensive air showers (EASs) in Earth's atmosphere which are assumed to propagate at the speed of light. The fluorescence detector (FD) at the Southern Pierre Auger Observatory detects the light signal from the EAS and directly measures the energy of the cosmic ray. When two or more FD sites observe an event, the geometry of the shower can be calculated independently of the velocity it is traveling. It is then possible to fit the time profile recorded in the FD using the shower speed as a free parameter. The analysis of a collection of stereo events allowed us to determine with what speed resolution we can measure EASs with sensitivity to subluminal components. Knowing the speed resolution we can look for objects propagating significantly below the speed of light.

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

Yield and depth Estimation of Selected NTS Nuclear and SPE Chemical Explosions Using Source Equalization by modeling Local and Regional Seismograms (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikia, C. K.; Roman-nieves, J. I.; Woods, M. T.

2013-12-01

Source parameters of nuclear and chemical explosions are often estimated by matching either the corner frequency and spectral level of a single event or the spectral ratio when spectra from two events are available with known source parameters for one. In this study, we propose an alternative method in which waveforms from two or more events can be simultaneously equalized by setting the differential of the processed seismograms at one station from any two individual events to zero. The method involves convolving the equivalent Mueller-Murphy displacement source time function (MMDSTF) of one event with the seismogram of the second event and vice-versa, and then computing their difference seismogram. MMDSTF is computed at the elastic radius including both near and far-field terms. For this method to yield accurate source parameters, an inherent assumption is that green's functions for the any paired events from the source to a receiver are same. In the frequency limit of the seismic data, this is a reasonable assumption and is concluded based on the comparison of green's functions computed for flat-earth models at various source depths ranging from 100m to 1Km. Frequency domain analysis of the initial P wave is, however, sensitive to the depth phase interaction, and if tracked meticulously can help estimating the event depth. We applied this method to the local waveforms recorded from the three SPE shots and precisely determined their yields. These high-frequency seismograms exhibit significant lateral path effects in spectrogram analysis and 3D numerical computations, but the source equalization technique is independent of any variation as long as their instrument characteristics are well preserved. We are currently estimating the uncertainty in the derived source parameters assuming the yields of the SPE shots as unknown. We also collected regional waveforms from 95 NTS explosions at regional stations ALQ, ANMO, CMB, COR, JAS LON, PAS, PFO and RSSD. We are currently employing a station based analysis using the equalization technique to estimate depth and yields of many relative to those of the announced explosions; and to develop their relationship with the Mw and Mo for the NTS explosions.

Clinical efficacy and safety of denosumab in postmenopausal women with low bone mineral density and osteoporosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

von Keyserlingk, Camilla; Hopkins, Robert; Anastasilakis, Athanasios; Toulis, Konstantinos; Goeree, Ron; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Xie, Feng

2011-10-01

Clinical trials indicate that denosumab could be a potential treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the clinical efficacy and safety of offering denosumab to postmenopausal women with low bone mass. Data sources included MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from inception to February 3, 2010 and bibliographies of reviews. Randomized controlled trials comparing the efficacy and safety of denosumab to placebo for treatment of low bone mass (low bone mineral density or osteoporosis) in postmenopausal women were selected. Two reviewers independently abstracted data on study general characteristics and outcomes. Review Manager 5.0 software was used for data syntheses and meta-analysis. The database search revealed 4 studies (comprising 8864 patients randomized) that met the inclusion criteria and contributed to some or all of the meta-analysis outcomes. Relative risk (95% CI) of fractures for the denosumab compared with placebo group was 0.58 (0.52 to 0.66); relative risk (95% CI) of serious adverse events was 1.33 (0.83 to 2.14); relative risk (95% CI) of serious adverse events related to infection was 2.10 (0.64 to 6.90); relative risk (95% CI) of neoplasm was 1.11 (0.91 to 1.36); relative risk (95% CI) of study discontinuation due to adverse events was 1.10 (0.83 to 1.47); and relative risk (95% CI) of death was 0.78 (0.57 to 1.06). Findings remained robust to sensitivity analyses. Our analysis found a significant reduction in relative fracture risk in the denosumab compared with the placebo group. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event duration. Relationships between 3B42 event properties and ERA-Interim environmental conditions are currently being evaluated using the MERRA-2 reanalysis and two years of 30-minute, 0.1° Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) data. If results remain consistent, they may be valuable for evaluating weather and climate models.

In-patient costs of agitation and containment in a mental health catchment area.

PubMed

Serrano-Blanco, Antoni; Rubio-Valera, Maria; Aznar-Lou, Ignacio; Baladón Higuera, Luisa; Gibert, Karina; Gracia Canales, Alfredo; Kaskens, Lisette; Ortiz, José Miguel; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2017-06-06

There is a scarce number of studies on the cost of agitation and containment interventions and their results are still inconclusive. We aimed to calculate the economic consequences of agitation events in an in-patient psychiatric facility providing care for an urban catchment area. A mixed approach combining secondary analysis of clinical databases, surveys and expert knowledge was used to model the 2013 direct costs of agitation and containment events for adult inpatients with mental disorders in an area of 640,572 adult inhabitants in South Barcelona (Spain). To calculate costs, a seven-step methodology with novel definition of agitation was used along with a staff survey, a database of containment events, and data on aggressive incidents. A micro-costing analysis of specific containment interventions was used to estimate both prevalence and direct costs from the healthcare provider perspective, by means of a mixed approach with a probabilistic model evaluated on real data. Due to the complex interaction of the multivariate covariances, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to have empirical bounds of variability. During 2013, 918 patients were admitted to the Acute Inpatient Unit. Of these, 52.8% were men, with a mean age of 44.6 years (SD = 15.5), 74.4% were compulsory admissions, 40.1% were diagnosed with schizophrenia or non-affective psychosis, with a mean length of stay of 24.6 days (SD = 16.9). The annual estimate of total agitation events was 508. The cost of containment interventions ranges from 282€ at the lowest level of agitation to 822€ when verbal containment plus seclusion and restraint have to be used. The annual total cost of agitation was 280,535€, representing 6.87% of the total costs of acute hospitalisation in the local area. Agitation events are frequent and costly. Strategies to reduce their number and severity should be implemented to reduce costs to the Health System and alleviate patient suffering.

SphinX catalogue of small flares and brightenings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryciuk, Magdalena; Sylwester, Janusz; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Mrozek, Tomasz; Kepa, Anna

The Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was designed to measure soft X-ray solar emission in the energy range between 1 keV and 15 keV. The instrument operated from February until November 2009 aboard CORONAS-Photon satellite, during the phase of extraordinary low minimum of solar activity. Thanks to its very high sensitivity SphinX was able to record large number of tiny flares and brightenings. A catalogue of events observed by SphinX will be presented. Results of statistical analysis of events’ characteristics will be discussed.

[Transcultural prevention of alcohol-related disorders : effects of a culture- and migration-sensitive approach in elderly migrants with respect to attitudes and behavior: a cluster randomized controlled trial].

PubMed

Bermejo, Isaac; Frank, F; Komarahadi, F; Albicker, J; Ries, Z; Kriston, L; Härter, M

2015-07-01

For migrants who are older than 50, alcohol frequently becomes a problem. Simultaneously alcohol-related prevention measures only reach this group insufficiently. Therefore, a transcultural concept for preventing alcohol-related disorders in elderly (≥ 45 years) migrants has been developed. The transcultural concept, which consisted of a prevention event as well as a cultural and language-sensitive information booklet, was evaluated in a cluster-randomized controlled trial (n = 310 immigrants). As a control condition there was a prevention event with materials from Deutsche Hauptstelle für Suchtfragen (German Centre for Addiction Issues). Data were obtained before and after the event, as well as after 6 months. All materials were available both in German and in Russian, Italian, Spanish and Turkish. Directly after the event, as well as 6 months thereafter, the transcultural approach was rated significantly better than the general prevention event. 73.4 % of the participants read the cultural and migration-sensitive booklet, whereas only 21.2 % in the control condition (p = 0.0001). Furthermore, significantly more participants of the transcultural approach reported a reduced alcohol consumption (49.4 vs. 16.7 %; p = 0.004) after 6 months. The consideration of diversity with respect to cultural, migration-related, socio demographic und linguistic aspects improves the effectiveness of prevention measures.

Childhood maltreatment, stressful life events, and alcohol craving in adult drinkers

PubMed Central

Kim, June H.; Martins, Silvia S.; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Santaella, Julian; Wall, Melanie M.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Eaton, Nicholas R.; Krueger, Robert; Grant, Bridget F.; Hasin, Deborah S.

2014-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship of stressful life events and alcohol craving in the general population, and whether a history of childhood maltreatment sensitizes individuals to crave alcohol after adult stressors. Methods Participants were 22,147 past-year drinkers from Wave 2 (2004-2006) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. A structured, face-to-face interview assessed past-year stressful life events, alcohol craving, and history of childhood maltreatment. Logistic regression was used to generate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) to evaluate the relationship between stressful life events and craving, adjusting for demographic characteristics and parental history of alcoholism. Interaction between stressful life events and childhood maltreatment was also assessed. Results Compared to participants with no stressful life events, those with ≥3 events had increased odds of moderate alcohol craving (aOR=3.15 [95% CI=2.30-4.33]) and severe craving (aOR=8.47 [95% CI=4.78-15.01]). Stressful life events and childhood maltreatment interacted in predicting severe craving (p=0.017); those with ≥3 events were at higher risk for craving if they had been exposed to childhood maltreatment. Conclusion A direct relationship between stressful life events and risk for alcohol craving was observed. Further, history of childhood maltreatment increased the salience of stressful life events in adulthood. Future studies should examine the role of psychiatric comorbidity in more complex models of stress sensitization and alcohol craving. PMID:24961735

Childhood maltreatment, stressful life events, and alcohol craving in adult drinkers.

PubMed

Kim, June H; Martins, Silvia S; Shmulewitz, Dvora; Santaella, Julian; Wall, Melanie M; Keyes, Katherine M; Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S

2014-07-01

Little is known about the relationship between stressful life events and alcohol craving in the general population, and whether a history of childhood maltreatment sensitizes individuals to crave alcohol after adult stressors. Participants were 22,147 past-year drinkers from Wave 2 (2004 to 2005) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. A structured, face-to-face interview assessed past-year stressful life events, alcohol craving, and history of childhood maltreatment. Logistic regression was used to generate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) to evaluate the relationship between stressful life events and craving, adjusting for demographic characteristics and parental history of alcoholism. Interaction between stressful life events and childhood maltreatment was also assessed. Compared to participants with no stressful life events, those with ≥ 3 events had increased odds of moderate alcohol craving (aOR = 3.15 [95% CI = 2.30 to 4.33]) and severe craving (aOR = 8.47 [95% CI = 4.78 to 15.01]). Stressful life events and childhood maltreatment interacted in predicting severe craving (p = 0.017); those with ≥ 3 events were at higher risk of craving if they had been exposed to childhood maltreatment. A direct relationship between stressful life events and risk of alcohol craving was observed. Further, history of childhood maltreatment increased the salience of stressful life events in adulthood. Future studies should examine the role of psychiatric comorbidity in more complex models of stress sensitization and alcohol craving. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Simulation results of Pulse Shape Discrimination (PSD) for background reduction in INTEGRAL Spectrometer (SPI) germanium detectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slassi-Sennou, S. A.; Boggs, S. E.; Feffer, P. T.; Lin, R. P.

1997-01-01

Pulse Shape Discrimination (PSD) for background reduction will be used in the INTErnational Gamma Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (INTEGRAL) imaging spectrometer (SPI) to improve the sensitivity from 200 keV to 2 MeV. The observation of significant astrophysical gamma ray lines in this energy range is expected, where the dominant component of the background is the beta(sup -) decay in the Ge detectors due to the activation of Ge nuclei by cosmic rays. The sensitivity of the SPI will be improved by rejecting beta(sup -) decay events while retaining photon events. The PSD technique will distinguish between single and multiple site events. Simulation results of PSD for INTEGRAL-type Ge detectors using a numerical model for pulse shape generation are presented. The model was shown to agree with the experimental results for a narrow inner bore closed end cylindrical detector. Using PSD, a sensitivity improvement factor of the order of 2.4 at 0.8 MeV is expected.

Biophysical Interactions within Step-Pool Mountain Streams Following Wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, A.; Chin, A.; O'Dowd, A. P.

2014-12-01

Recovery of riverine ecosystems following disturbance is driven by a variety of interacting processes. Wildfires pose increasing disturbances to riverine landscapes, with rising frequencies and magnitudes owing to warming climates and increased fuel loads. The effects of wildfire include loss of vegetation, elevated runoff and flash floods, erosion and deposition, and changing biological habitats and communities. Understanding process interactions in post-fire landscapes is increasingly urgent for successful management and restoration of affected ecosystems. In steep channels, steps and pools provide prominent habitats for organisms and structural integrity in high energy environments. Step-pools are typically stable, responding to extreme events with recurrence intervals often exceeding 50 years. Once wildfire occurs, however, intensification of post-fire flood events can potentially overpower the inherent stability of these systems, with significant consequences for aquatic life and human well-being downstream. This study examined the short-term response of step-pool streams following the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado. We explored interacting feedbacks among geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology in the post-fire environment. At selected sites with varying burn severity, we established baseline conditions immediately after the fire with channel surveys, biological assessment using benthic macroinvertebrates, sediment analysis including pebble counts, and precipitation gauging. Repeat measurements after major storm events over several years enabled analysis of the interacting feedbacks among post-fire processes. We found that channels able to retain the step-pool structure changed less and facilitated recovery more readily. Step habitats maintained higher percentages of sensitive macroinvertebrate taxa compared to pools through post-fire floods. Sites burned with high severity experienced greater reduction in the percentage of sensitive taxa. The decimation of macroinvertebrates closely coincides with the physical destruction of the step-pool morphology. The role that step-pools play in enhancing the ecological quality of fluvial systems, therefore, provides a key focus for effective management and restoration of aquatic resources following wildfires.

Plasma B-type natriuretic peptide and anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 levels predict adverse clinical outcome in chronic heart failure patients with depressive symptoms: a 1-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Parissis, John T; Farmakis, Dimitrios; Nikolaou, Maria; Birmpa, Dionysia; Bistola, Vassiliki; Paraskevaidis, Ioannis; Ikonomidis, Ignatios; Gaitani, Stavroula; Venetsanou, Koula; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Kremastinos, Dimitrios Th

2009-10-01

To assess the prognostic value of a wide spectrum of neurohormonal and inflammatory markers along with functional status and exercise capacity, in hospitalized chronic heart failure (CHF) patients with depressive symptoms. A total of 300 consecutive hospitalized CHF patients were screened for depressive symptomatology using the Zung self-rated depression scale (SDS). Patients with depressive symptoms (Zung SDS > or = 40) underwent a 6 min walking test, and evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and plasma inflammatory/anti-inflammatory factors [interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1]. Patients were subsequently followed for up to 1 year for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, death or hospitalization due to cardiovascular causes). One hundred and fourteen patients (38%) had a Zung SDS > or = 40. One-year event-free survival of these patients was 19% (mean +/- SE, 150 +/- 12 days). In multivariate analysis, only BNP (HR = 1.001, P = 0.002) and IL-10 (HR = 0.864, P = 0.049) were independent predictors of MACE. Using receiver operator characteristics analysis-derived cut-offs, a BNP value of 290 pg/mL predicted MACE with 86% sensitivity and 69% specificity, whereas an IL-10 value of 5 pg/mL predicted MACE with 61% sensitivity and 78% specificity. Event-free survival differed significantly between patients with BNP < 290 pg/mL and IL-10 > 5 pg/mL (261 +/- 44 days) and those with BNP > 290 pg/mL and IL-10 < 5 pg/mL (79 +/- 11 days, P = 0.0001). Neurohormonal activation and defective anti-inflammatory properties are independent predictors of long-term outcome in hospitalized CHF patients with depressive symptoms.

Identifying individual sleep apnea/hypoapnea epochs using smartphone-based pulse oximetry.

PubMed

Garde, Ainara; Dekhordi, Parastoo; Ansermino, J Mark; Dumont, Guy A

2016-08-01

Sleep apnea, characterized by frequent pauses in breathing during sleep, poses a serious threat to the healthy growth and development of children. Polysomnography (PSG), the gold standard for sleep apnea diagnosis, is resource intensive and confined to sleep laboratories, thus reducing its accessibility. Pulse oximetry alone, providing blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) and blood volume changes in tissue (PPG), has the potential to identify children with sleep apnea. Thus, we aim to develop a tool for at-home sleep apnea screening that provides a detailed and automated 30 sec epoch-by-epoch sleep apnea analysis. We propose to extract features characterizing pulse oximetry (SpO2 and pulse rate variability [PRV], a surrogate measure of heart rate variability) to create a multivariate logistic regression model that identifies epochs containing apnea/hypoapnea events. Overnight pulse oximetry was collected using a smartphone-based pulse oximeter, simultaneously with standard PSG from 160 children at the British Columbia Children's hospital. The sleep technician manually scored all apnea/hypoapnea events during the PSG study. Based on these scores we labeled each epoch as containing or not containing apnea/hypoapnea. We randomly divided the subjects into training data (40%), used to develop the model applying the LASSO method, and testing data (60%), used to validate the model. The developed model was assessed epoch-by-epoch for each subject. The test dataset had a median area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 81%; the model provided a median accuracy of 74% sensitivity of 75%, and specificity of 73% when using a risk threshold similar to the percentage of apnea/hypopnea epochs. Thus, providing a detailed epoch-by-epoch analysis with at-home pulse oximetry alone is feasible with accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values above 73% However, the performance might decrease when analyzing subjects with a low number of apnea/hypoapnea events.

Predicting geomorphically-induced flood risk for the Nepalese Terai communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingle, Elizabeth; Creed, Maggie; Attal, Mikael; Sinclair, Hugh; Mudd, Simon; Borthwick, Alistair; Dugar, Sumit; Brown, Sarah

2017-04-01

Rivers sourced from the Himalaya irrigate the Indo-Gangetic Plain via major river networks that support 10% of the global population. However, many of these rivers are also the source of devastating floods. During the 2014 Karnali River floods in west Nepal, the Karnali rose to around 16 m at Chisapani (where it enters the Indo-Gangetic Plain), 1 m higher than the previous record in 1983; the return interval for this event was estimated to be 1000 years. Flood risk may currently be underestimated in this region, primarily because changes to the channel bed are not included when identifying areas at risk of flooding from events of varying recurrence intervals. Our observations in the field, corroborated by satellite imagery, show that river beds are highly mobile and constantly evolve through each monsoon. Increased bed levels due to sediment aggradation decreases the capacity of the river, increasing significantly the risk of devastating flood events; we refer to these as 'geomorphically-induced floods'. Major, short-lived episodes of sediment accumulation in channels are caused by stochastic variability in sediment flux generated by storms, earthquakes and glacial outburst floods from upstream parts of the catchment. Here, we generate a field-calibrated, geomorphic flood risk model for varying upstream scenarios, and predict changing flood risk for the Karnali River. A numerical model is used to carry out a sensitivity analysis of changes in channel geometry (particularly aggradation or degradation) based on realistic flood scenarios. In these scenarios, water and sediment discharge are varied within a range of plausible values, up to extreme sediment and water fluxes caused by widespread landsliding and/or intense monsoon precipitation based on existing records. The results of this sensitivity analysis will be used to inform flood hazard maps of the Karnali River floodplain and assess the vulnerability of the populations in the region.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of insulin detemir versus neutral protamine Hagedorn insulin in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in the UK using a short-term modeling approach.

PubMed

Pollock, Richard F; Chubb, Barrie; Valentine, William J; Heller, Simon

2018-01-01

To estimate the short-term cost-effectiveness of insulin detemir (IDet) versus neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin based on the incidence of non-severe hypoglycemia and changes in body weight in subjects with type 1 diabetes (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the UK. A model was developed to evaluate cost-effectiveness based on non-severe hypoglycemia, body mass index, and pharmacy costs over 1 year. Published rates of non-severe hypoglycemia were employed in the T1D and T2D analyses, while reduced weight gain with IDet was modeled in the T2D analysis only. Effectiveness was calculated in terms of quality-adjusted life expectancy using published utility scores. Pharmacy costs were captured using published prices and defined daily doses. Costs were expressed in 2016 pounds sterling (GBP). Sensitivity analyses were performed (including probabilistic sensitivity analysis). In T1D, IDet was associated with fewer non-severe hypoglycemic events than NPH insulin (126.7 versus 150.8 events per person-year), leading to an improvement of 0.099 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs with IDet were GBP 60 higher, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of GBP 610 per QALY gained. In T2D, mean non-severe hypoglycemic event rates and body weight were lower with IDet than NPH insulin, leading to a total incremental utility of 0.120, accompanied by an annual cost increase of GBP 171, yielding an ICER of GBP 1,422 per QALY gained for IDet versus NPH insulin. Short-term health economic evaluation showed IDet to be a cost-effective alternative to NPH insulin in the UK due to lower rates of non-severe hypoglycemia (T1D and T2D) and reduced weight gain (T2D only).

A heavy sea fog event over the Yellow Sea in March 2005: Analysis and numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shanhong; Lin, Hang; Shen, Biao; Fu, Gang

2007-02-01

In this paper, a heavy sea fog episode that occurred over the Yellow Sea on 9 March 2005 is investigated. The sea fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundred kilometers at its mature stage, reduced visibility along the Shandong Peninsula coast to 100 m or much less at some sites. Satellite images, surface observations and soundings at islands and coasts, and analyses from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) are used to describe and analyze this event. The analysis indicates that this sea fog can be categorized as advection cooling fog. The main features of this sea fog including fog area and its movement are reasonably reproduced by the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Model results suggest that the formation and evolution of this event can be outlined as: (1) southerly warm/moist advection of low-level air resulted in a strong sea-surface-based inversion with a thickness of about 600 m; (2) when the inversion moved from the warmer East Sea to the colder Yellow Sea, a thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) gradually formed at the base of the inversion while the sea fog grew in response to cooling and moistening by turbulence mixing; (3) the sea fog developed as the TIBL moved northward and (4) strong northerly cold and dry wind destroyed the TIBL and dissipated the sea fog. The principal findings of this study are that sea fog forms in response to relatively persistent southerly warm/moist wind and a cold sea surface, and that turbulence mixing by wind shear is the primary mechanism for the cooling and moistening the marine layer. In addition, the study of sensitivity experiments indicates that deterministic numerical modeling offers a promising approach to the prediction of sea fog over the Yellow Sea but it may be more efficient to consider ensemble numerical modeling because of the extreme sensitivity to model input.

Sensitivity analysis of some critical factors affecting simulated intrusion volumes during a low pressure transient event in a full-scale water distribution system.

PubMed

Ebacher, G; Besner, M C; Clément, B; Prévost, M

2012-09-01

Intrusion events caused by transient low pressures may result in the contamination of a water distribution system (DS). This work aims at estimating the range of potential intrusion volumes that could result from a real downsurge event caused by a momentary pump shutdown. A model calibrated with transient low pressure recordings was used to simulate total intrusion volumes through leakage orifices and submerged air vacuum valves (AVVs). Four critical factors influencing intrusion volumes were varied: the external head of (untreated) water on leakage orifices, the external head of (untreated) water on submerged air vacuum valves, the leakage rate, and the diameter of AVVs' outlet orifice (represented by a multiplicative factor). Leakage orifices' head and AVVs' orifice head levels were assessed through fieldwork. Two sets of runs were generated as part of two statistically designed experiments. A first set of 81 runs was based on a complete factorial design in which each factor was varied over 3 levels. A second set of 40 runs was based on a latin hypercube design, better suited for experimental runs on a computer model. The simulations were conducted using commercially available transient analysis software. Responses, measured by total intrusion volumes, ranged from 10 to 366 L. A second degree polynomial was used to analyze the total intrusion volumes. Sensitivity analyses of both designs revealed that the relationship between the total intrusion volume and the four contributing factors is not monotonic, with the AVVs' orifice head being the most influential factor. When intrusion through both pathways occurs concurrently, interactions between the intrusion flows through leakage orifices and submerged AVVs influence intrusion volumes. When only intrusion through leakage orifices is considered, the total intrusion volume is more largely influenced by the leakage rate than by the leakage orifices' head. The latter mainly impacts the extent of the area affected by intrusion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Rain Rates from Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianxin; Fisher, Brad L.; Wolff, David B.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the cubic spline based operational system for the generation of the TRMM one-minute rain rate product 2A-56 from Tipping Bucket (TB) gauge measurements. Methodological issues associated with applying the cubic spline to the TB gauge rain rate estimation are closely examined. A simulated TB gauge from a Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is employed to evaluate effects of time scales and rain event definitions on errors of the rain rate estimation. The comparison between rain rates measured from the JW disdrometer and those estimated from the simulated TB gauge shows good overall agreement; however, the TB gauge suffers sampling problems, resulting in errors in the rain rate estimation. These errors are very sensitive to the time scale of rain rates. One-minute rain rates suffer substantial errors, especially at low rain rates. When one minute rain rates are averaged to 4-7 minute or longer time scales, the errors dramatically reduce. The rain event duration is very sensitive to the event definition but the event rain total is rather insensitive, provided that the events with less than 1 millimeter rain totals are excluded. Estimated lower rain rates are sensitive to the event definition whereas the higher rates are not. The median relative absolute errors are about 22% and 32% for 1-minute TB rain rates higher and lower than 3 mm per hour, respectively. These errors decrease to 5% and 14% when TB rain rates are used at 7-minute scale. The radar reflectivity-rainrate (Ze-R) distributions drawn from large amount of 7-minute TB rain rates and radar reflectivity data are mostly insensitive to the event definition.

Multi-decadal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea: Observational evidence of early reef island recovery after the impact of storm waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Thomas; Westphal, Hildegard

2016-03-01

Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and other high-magnitude events are important steering mechanisms in the geomorphic development of coral reef islands. Sandy reef islands located outside the storm belts are strongly sensitive to the impact of occasional high-magnitude events and show abrupt, commonly erosive geomorphic change in response to such events. Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data, it is well known that the process of landform recovery might take several decades or even longer. However, despite the increasing amount of scientific attention towards short- and long-term island dynamics, the lack of data and models often prevent a robust analysis of the timing and nature of recovery initiation. Here we show how natural island recovery starts immediately after the impact of a high-magnitude event. We analyze multi-temporal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea and combine our findings with a unique set of published field observations (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014). Trends of shoreline change since 1943 and changes in planform island area indicate a long-term accretionary mode for most islands. Apparent shoreline instability is detected for the last decade of analysis, however this can be explained by the impact of storm waves in December 2008 that (temporarily?) masked the long-term trend. The transition from negative to positive rates of change in the aftermath of this storm event is indicative of inherent negative feedback processes that counteract short-term changes in energy input and represent the initiation of island recovery. Collectively, our results support the concept of dynamic rather than static reef islands and clearly demonstrate how short-term processes can influence interpretations of medium-term change.

Bayesian Inference for Signal-Based Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) is a system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of recent geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a global network of stations. We demonstrate recent progress in scaling up SIG-VISA to efficiently process the data stream of global signals recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS), including comparisons against existing processing methods that show increased sensitivity from our signal-based model and in particular the ability to locate events (including aftershock sequences that can tax analyst processing) precisely from waveform correlation effects. We also provide a Bayesian analysis of an alleged low-magnitude event near the DPRK test site in May 2010 [1] [2], investigating whether such an event could plausibly be detected through automated processing in a signal-based monitoring system. [1] Zhang, Miao and Wen, Lianxing. "Seismological Evidence for a Low-Yield Nuclear Test on 12 May 2010 in North Korea". Seismological Research Letters, January/February 2015. [2] Richards, Paul. "A Seismic Event in North Korea on 12 May 2010". CTBTO SnT 2015 oral presentation, video at https://video-archive.ctbto.org/index.php/kmc/preview/partner_id/103/uiconf_id/4421629/entry_id/0_ymmtpps0/delivery/http

Automated X-ray Flare Detection with GOES, 2003-2017: The Where of the Flare Catalog and Early Statistical Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loftus, K.; Saar, S. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center publishes the current definitive public soft X-ray flare catalog, derived using data from the X-ray Sensor (XRS) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) series. However, this flare list has shortcomings for use in scientific analysis. Its detection algorithm has drawbacks (missing smaller flux events and poorly characterizing complex ones), and its event timing is imprecise (peak and end times are frequently marked incorrectly, and hence peak fluxes are underestimated). It also lacks explicit and regular spatial location data. We present a new database, "The Where of the Flare" catalog, which improves upon the precision of NOAA's current version, with more consistent and accurate spatial locations, timings, and peak fluxes. Our catalog also offers several new parameters per flare (e.g. background flux, integrated flux). We use data from the GOES Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) for spatial flare locating. Our detection algorithm is more sensitive to smaller flux events close to the background level and more precisely marks flare start/peak/end times so that integrated flux can be accurately calculated. It also decomposes complex events (with multiple overlapping flares) by constituent peaks. The catalog dates from the operation of the first SXI instrument in 2003 until the present. We give an overview of the detection algorithm's design, review the catalog's features, and discuss preliminary statistical analyses of light curve morphology, complex event decomposition, and integrated flux distribution. The Where of the Flare catalog will be useful in studying X-ray flare statistics and correlating X-ray flare properties with other observations. This work was supported by Contract #8100002705 from Lockheed-Martin to SAO in support of the science of NASA's IRIS mission.

Analysing Time to Event Data in Dementia Prevention Trials: The Example of the GuidAge Study of EGb761.

PubMed

Scherrer, B; Andrieu, S; Ousset, P J; Berrut, G; Dartigues, J F; Dubois, B; Pasquier, F; Piette, F; Robert, P; Touchon, J; Garnier, P; Mathiex-Fortunet, H; Vellas, B

2015-12-01

Time-to-event analysis is frequently used in medical research to investigate potential disease-modifying treatments in neurodegenerative diseases. Potential treatment effects are generally evaluated using the logrank test, which has optimal power and sensitivity when the treatment effect (hazard ratio) is constant over time. However, there is generally no prior information as to how the hazard ratio for the event of interest actually evolves. In these cases, the logrank test is not necessarily the most appropriate to use. When the hazard ratio is expected to decrease or increase over time, alternative statistical tests such as the Fleming-Harrington test, provide a better sensitivity. An example of this comes from a large, five-year randomised, placebo-controlled prevention trial (GuidAge) in 2854 community-based subjects making spontaneous memory complaints to their family physicians, which evaluated whether treatment with EGb761 can modify the risk of developing AD. The primary outcome measure was the time to conversion from memory complaint to Alzheimer's type dementia. Although there was no significant difference in the hazard function of conversion between the two treatment groups according to the preplanned logrank test, a significant treatment-by-time interaction for the incidence of AD was observed in a protocol-specified subgroup analysis, suggesting that the hazard ratio is not constant over time. For this reason, additional post hoc analyses were performed using the Fleming-Harrington test to evaluate whether there was a signal of a late effect of EGb761. Applying the Fleming-Harrington test, the hazard function for conversion to dementia in the placebo group was significantly different from that in the EGb761 treatment group (p = 0.0054), suggesting a late effect of EGb761. Since this was a post hoc analysis, no definitive conclusions can be drawn as to the effectiveness of the treatment. This post hoc analysis illustrates the interest of performing another randomised clinical trial of EGb761 explicitly testing the hypothesis of a late treatment effect, as well as of using of better adapted statistical approaches for long term preventive trials when it is expected that prevention cannot have an immediate effect but rather a delayed effect that increases over time.

Single event burnout sensitivity of embedded field effect transistors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koga, R.; Crain, S.H.; Crawford, K.B.

Observations of single event burnout (SEB) in embedded field effect transistors are reported. Both SEB and other single event effects are presented for several pulse width modulation and high frequency devices. The microscope has been employed to locate and to investigate the damaged areas. A model of the damage mechanism based on the results so obtained is described.

Parent-Child Talk about Motion: Links to Children's Development of Motion Event Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hohenstein, Jill

2013-01-01

This study investigated the motion event language children and their parents engaged in while playing a board game. Children are sensitive to differences in manner and path at infancy, yet adult-like motion event expression appears relatively late in development. While multiple studies have examined how exposure to parent speech generally relates…

Single event burnout sensitivity of embedded field effect transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, R.; Crain, S. H.; Crawford, K. B.; Yu, P.; Gordon, M. J.

1999-12-01

Observations of single event burnout (SEB) in embedded field effect transistors are reported. Both SEB and other single event effects are presented for several pulse width modulation and high frequency devices. The microscope has been employed to locate and to investigate the damaged areas. A model of the damage mechanism based on the results so obtained is described.

Feature extraction and identification in distributed optical-fiber vibration sensing system for oil pipeline safety monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Huijuan; Qian, Ya; Zhang, Wei; Tang, Chenghao

2017-12-01

High sensitivity of a distributed optical-fiber vibration sensing (DOVS) system based on the phase-sensitivity optical time domain reflectometry (Φ-OTDR) technology also brings in high nuisance alarm rates (NARs) in real applications. In this paper, feature extraction methods of wavelet decomposition (WD) and wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) are comparatively studied for three typical field testing signals, and an artificial neural network (ANN) is built for the event identification. The comparison results prove that the WPD performs a little better than the WD for the DOVS signal analysis and identification in oil pipeline safety monitoring. The identification rate can be improved up to 94.4%, and the nuisance alarm rate can be effectively controlled as low as 5.6% for the identification network with the wavelet packet energy distribution features.

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in order to illustrate some crucial aspects of including information on extreme historical floods into at-site flood frequency analyses.

Real-time subsecond voltammetric analysis of Pb in aqueous environmental samples.

PubMed

Yang, Yuanyuan; Pathirathna, Pavithra; Siriwardhane, Thushani; McElmurry, Shawn P; Hashemi, Parastoo

2013-08-06

Lead (Pb) pollution is an important environmental and public health concern. Rapid Pb transport during stormwater runoff significantly impairs surface water quality. The ability to characterize and model Pb transport during these events is critical to mitigating its impact on the environment. However, Pb analysis is limited by the lack of analytical methods that can afford rapid, sensitive measurements in situ. While electrochemical methods have previously shown promise for rapid Pb analysis, they are currently limited in two ways. First, because of Pb's limited solubility, test solutions that are representative of environmental systems are not typically employed in laboratory characterizations. Second, concerns about traditional Hg electrode toxicity, stability, and low temporal resolution have dampened opportunities for in situ analyses with traditional electrochemical methods. In this paper, we describe two novel methodological advances that bypass these limitations. Using geochemical models, we first create an environmentally relevant test solution that can be used for electrochemical method development and characterization. Second, we develop a fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV) method for Pb detection on Hg-free carbon fiber microelectrodes. We assess the method's sensitivity and stability, taking into account Pb speciation, and utilize it to characterize rapid Pb fluctuations in real environmental samples. We thus present a novel real-time electrochemical tool for Pb analysis in both model and authentic environmental solutions.

IATA for skin sensitization potential – 1 out of 2 or 2 out of 3? ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

To meet EU regulatory requirements and to avoid or minimize animal testing, there is a need for non-animal methods to assess skin sensitization potential. Given the complexity of the skin sensitization endpoint, there is an expectation that integrated testing and assessment approaches (IATA) will need to be developed which rely on assays representing key events in the pathway. Three non-animal assays have been formally validated: the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), the KeratinoSensTM assay and the h-CLAT assay. At the same time, there have been many efforts to develop IATA with the “2 out of 3” approach attracting much attention whereby a chemical is classified on the basis of the majority outcome. A set of 271 chemicals with mouse, human and non-animal sensitization test data was evaluated to compare the predictive performances of the 3 individual non-animal assays, their binary combinations and the ‘2 out of 3’ approach. The analysis revealed that the most predictive approach was to use both the DPRA and h-CLAT: 1. Perform DPRA – if positive, classify as a sensitizer; 2. If negative, perform h-CLAT – a positive outcome denotes a sensitizer, a negative, a non-sensitizer. With this approach, 83% (LLNA) and 93% (human) of the non-sensitizer predictions were correct, in contrast to the ‘2 out of 3’ approach which had 69% (LLNA) and 79% (human) of non-sensitizer predictions correct. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not ne

Decoding fMRI events in sensorimotor motor network using sparse paradigm free mapping and activation likelihood estimates.

PubMed

Tan, Francisca M; Caballero-Gaudes, César; Mullinger, Karen J; Cho, Siu-Yeung; Zhang, Yaping; Dryden, Ian L; Francis, Susan T; Gowland, Penny A

2017-11-01

Most functional MRI (fMRI) studies map task-driven brain activity using a block or event-related paradigm. Sparse paradigm free mapping (SPFM) can detect the onset and spatial distribution of BOLD events in the brain without prior timing information, but relating the detected events to brain function remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a decoding method for SPFM using a coordinate-based meta-analysis method of activation likelihood estimation (ALE). We defined meta-maps of statistically significant ALE values that correspond to types of events and calculated a summation overlap between the normalized meta-maps and SPFM maps. As a proof of concept, this framework was applied to relate SPFM-detected events in the sensorimotor network (SMN) to six motor functions (left/right fingers, left/right toes, swallowing, and eye blinks). We validated the framework using simultaneous electromyography (EMG)-fMRI experiments and motor tasks with short and long duration, and random interstimulus interval. The decoding scores were considerably lower for eye movements relative to other movement types tested. The average successful rate for short and long motor events were 77 ± 13% and 74 ± 16%, respectively, excluding eye movements. We found good agreement between the decoding results and EMG for most events and subjects, with a range in sensitivity between 55% and 100%, excluding eye movements. The proposed method was then used to classify the movement types of spontaneous single-trial events in the SMN during resting state, which produced an average successful rate of 22 ± 12%. Finally, this article discusses methodological implications and improvements to increase the decoding performance. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5778-5794, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Decoding fMRI events in Sensorimotor Motor Network using Sparse Paradigm Free Mapping and Activation Likelihood Estimates

PubMed Central

Tan, Francisca M.; Caballero-Gaudes, César; Mullinger, Karen J.; Cho, Siu-Yeung; Zhang, Yaping; Dryden, Ian L.; Francis, Susan T.; Gowland, Penny A.

2017-01-01

Most fMRI studies map task-driven brain activity using a block or event-related paradigm. Sparse Paradigm Free Mapping (SPFM) can detect the onset and spatial distribution of BOLD events in the brain without prior timing information; but relating the detected events to brain function remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a decoding method for SPFM using a coordinate-based meta-analysis method of Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE). We defined meta-maps of statistically significant ALE values that correspond to types of events and calculated a summation overlap between the normalized meta-maps and SPFM maps. As a proof of concept, this framework was applied to relate SPFM-detected events in the Sensorimotor Network (SMN) to six motor function (left/right fingers, left/right toes, swallowing and eye blinks). We validated the framework using simultaneous Electromyography-fMRI experiments and motor tasks with short and long duration, and random inter-stimulus interval. The decoding scores were considerably lower for eye movements relative to other movement types tested. The average successful rate for short and long motor events was 77 ± 13% and 74 ± 16% respectively, excluding eye movements. We found good agreement between the decoding results and EMG for most events and subjects, with a range in sensitivity between 55 and 100%, excluding eye movements. The proposed method was then used to classify the movement types of spontaneous single-trial events in the SMN during resting state, which produced an average successful rate of 22 ± 12%. Finally, this paper discusses methodological implications and improvements to increase the decoding performance. PMID:28815863

Chemotherapy Extravasation: Establishing a National Benchmark for Incidence Among Cancer Centers.

PubMed

Jackson-Rose, Jeannette; Del Monte, Judith; Groman, Adrienne; Dial, Linda S; Atwell, Leah; Graham, Judy; O'Neil Semler, Rosemary; O'Sullivan, Maryellen; Truini-Pittman, Lisa; Cunningham, Terri A; Roman-Fischetti, Lisa; Costantinou, Eileen; Rimkus, Chris; Banavage, Adrienne J; Dietz, Barbara; Colussi, Carol J; Catania, Kimberly; Wasko, Michelle; Schreffler, Kevin A; West, Colleen; Siefert, Mary Lou; Rice, Robert David

2017-08-01

Given the high-risk nature and nurse sensitivity of chemotherapy infusion and extravasation prevention, as well as the absence of an industry benchmark, a group of nurses studied oncology-specific nursing-sensitive indicators. 
. The purpose was to establish a benchmark for the incidence of chemotherapy extravasation with vesicants, irritants, and irritants with vesicant potential.
. Infusions with actual or suspected extravasations of vesicant and irritant chemotherapies were evaluated. Extravasation events were reviewed by type of agent, occurrence by drug category, route of administration, level of harm, follow-up, and patient referrals to surgical consultation.
. A total of 739,812 infusions were evaluated, with 673 extravasation events identified. Incidence for all extravasation events was 0.09%.

Sensitivity analysis of the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR4 Earthquake Model using seismic events affecting King County Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neighbors, C.; Noriega, G. R.; Caras, Y.; Cochran, E. S.

2010-12-01

HAZUS-MH MR4 (HAZards U. S. Multi-Hazard Maintenance Release 4) is a risk-estimation software developed by FEMA to calculate potential losses due to natural disasters. Federal, state, regional, and local government use the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model for earthquake risk mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery planning (FEMA, 2003). In this study, we examine several parameters used by the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model methodology to understand how modifying the user-defined settings affect ground motion analysis, seismic risk assessment and earthquake loss estimates. This analysis focuses on both shallow crustal and deep intraslab events in the American Pacific Northwest. Specifically, the historic 1949 Mw 6.8 Olympia, 1965 Mw 6.6 Seattle-Tacoma and 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually normal fault intraslab events and scenario large-magnitude Seattle reverse fault crustal events are modeled. Inputs analyzed include variations of deterministic event scenarios combined with hazard maps and USGS ShakeMaps. This approach utilizes the capacity of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model to define landslide- and liquefaction- susceptibility hazards with local groundwater level and slope stability information. Where Shakemap inputs are not used, events are run in combination with NEHRP soil classifications to determine site amplification effects. The earthquake component of HAZUS-MH applies a series of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships developed from source parameters of both regional and global historical earthquakes to estimate strong ground motion. Ground motion and resulting ground failure due to earthquakes are then used to calculate, direct physical damage for general building stock, essential facilities, and lifelines, including transportation systems and utility systems. Earthquake losses are expressed in structural, economic and social terms. Where available, comparisons between recorded earthquake losses and HAZUS-MH earthquake losses are used to determine how region coordinators can most effectively utilize their resources for earthquake risk mitigation. This study is being conducted in collaboration with King County, WA officials to determine the best model inputs necessary to generate robust HAZUS-MH models for the Pacific Northwest.

The impact of economic austerity and prosperity events on suicide in Greece: a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Branas, Charles C; Kastanaki, Anastasia E; Michalodimitrakis, Manolis; Tzougas, John; Kranioti, Elena F; Theodorakis, Pavlos N; Carr, Brendan G; Wiebe, Douglas J

2015-02-02

To complete a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on the occurrence of suicide across Greece. Greece from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 2012. A total of 11 505 suicides, 9079 by men and 2426 by women, occurring in Greece over the study period. National data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority assembled as 360 monthly counts of: all suicides, male suicides, female suicides and all suicides plus potentially misclassified suicides. In 30 years, the highest months of suicide in Greece occurred in 2012. The passage of new austerity measures in June 2011 marked the beginning of significant, abrupt and sustained increases in total suicides (+35.7%, p<0.001) and male suicides (+18.5%, p<0.01). Sensitivity analyses that figured in undercounting of suicides also found a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in June 2011 (+20.5%, p<0.001). Suicides by men in Greece also underwent a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in October 2008 when the Greek recession began (+13.1%, p<0.01), and an abrupt but temporary increase in April 2012 following a public suicide committed in response to austerity conditions (+29.7%, p<0.05). Suicides by women in Greece also underwent an abrupt and sustained increase in May 2011 following austerity-related events (+35.8%, p<0.05). One prosperity-related event, the January 2002 launch of the Euro in Greece, marked an abrupt but temporary decrease in male suicides (-27.1%, p<0.05). This is the first multidecade, national analysis of suicide in Greece using monthly data. Select austerity-related events in Greece corresponded to statistically significant increases for suicides overall, as well as for suicides among men and women. The consideration of future austerity measures should give greater weight to the unintended mental health consequences that may follow and the public messaging of these policies and related events. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The impact of economic austerity and prosperity events on suicide in Greece: a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

Branas, Charles C; Kastanaki, Anastasia E; Michalodimitrakis, Manolis; Tzougas, John; Kranioti, Elena F; Theodorakis, Pavlos N; Carr, Brendan G; Wiebe, Douglas J

2015-01-01

Objectives To complete a 30-year interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on the occurrence of suicide across Greece. Setting Greece from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 2012. Participants A total of 11 505 suicides, 9079 by men and 2426 by women, occurring in Greece over the study period. Primary and secondary outcomes National data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority assembled as 360 monthly counts of: all suicides, male suicides, female suicides and all suicides plus potentially misclassified suicides. Results In 30 years, the highest months of suicide in Greece occurred in 2012. The passage of new austerity measures in June 2011 marked the beginning of significant, abrupt and sustained increases in total suicides (+35.7%, p<0.001) and male suicides (+18.5%, p<0.01). Sensitivity analyses that figured in undercounting of suicides also found a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in June 2011 (+20.5%, p<0.001). Suicides by men in Greece also underwent a significant, abrupt and sustained increase in October 2008 when the Greek recession began (+13.1%, p<0.01), and an abrupt but temporary increase in April 2012 following a public suicide committed in response to austerity conditions (+29.7%, p<0.05). Suicides by women in Greece also underwent an abrupt and sustained increase in May 2011 following austerity-related events (+35.8%, p<0.05). One prosperity-related event, the January 2002 launch of the Euro in Greece, marked an abrupt but temporary decrease in male suicides (−27.1%, p<0.05). Conclusions This is the first multidecade, national analysis of suicide in Greece using monthly data. Select austerity-related events in Greece corresponded to statistically significant increases for suicides overall, as well as for suicides among men and women. The consideration of future austerity measures should give greater weight to the unintended mental health consequences that may follow and the public messaging of these policies and related events. PMID:25643700

Metallic Nanohole Arrays on Fluoropolymer Substrates as Small Label-Free Real-Time Bioprobes

PubMed Central

Yang, Jiun-Chan; Ji, Jin; Hogle, James M.; Larson, Dale N.

2009-01-01

We describe a nanoplasmonic probing platform that exploits small-dimension (≤ 20 μm2) ordered arrays of subwavelength holes for multiplexed, high spatial resolution, and real-time analysis on biorecognition events. Nanohole arrays are perforated on a super smooth gold surface (roughness RMS < 2.7 Å) attached on a fluoropolymer (FEP) substrate fabricated by a replica technique. The smooth surface of gold provides a superb environment for fabricating nanometer features and uniform immobilization of biomolecules. The refractive index matching between FEP and biological solutions contributes to ∼ 20% improvement on the sensing performance. Spectral studies on a series of small-dimension nanohole arrays from 1 μm2 to 20 μm2 indicate that the plasmonic sensing sensitivity improves as the gold-solution contact area increases. Our results also demonstrate that nanohole arrays with dimension as small as 1 μm2 can be used to effectively detect biomolecular binding events and analyze the binding kinetics. The future scientific opportunities opened by this nanohole platform include highly multiplexed analysis of ligand interactions with membrane proteins on high quality supported lipid bilayers. PMID:18710296

Analyzing discharge strategies during acute care: a discrete-event simulation study.

PubMed

Crawford, Elizabeth A; Parikh, Pratik J; Kong, Nan; Thakar, Charuhas V

2014-02-01

We developed a discrete-event simulation model of patient pathway through an acute care hospital that comprises an ED and several inpatient units. The effects of discharge timing on ED waiting and boarding times, ambulance diversions, leave without treatment, and readmissions were explicitly modeled. We then analyzed the impact of 1 static and 2 proactive discharge strategies on these system outcomes. Our analysis indicated that although the 2 proactive discharge strategies significantly reduced ED waiting and boarding times, and several other measures, compared with the static strategy (P < 0.01), the number of readmissions increased substantially. Further analysis indicated that these findings are sensitive to changes in patient arrival rate and conditions for ambulance diversion. Determining the appropriate time to discharge patients not only can affect individual patients' health outcomes, but also can affect various aspects of the hospital. The study improves our understanding of how individual inpatient discharge decisions can be objectively viewed in terms of their impact on other operations, such as ED crowding and readmission, in an acute care hospital.

Molecular Characterization of Transgenic Events Using Next Generation Sequencing Approach.

PubMed

Guttikonda, Satish K; Marri, Pradeep; Mammadov, Jafar; Ye, Liang; Soe, Khaing; Richey, Kimberly; Cruse, James; Zhuang, Meibao; Gao, Zhifang; Evans, Clive; Rounsley, Steve; Kumpatla, Siva P

2016-01-01

Demand for the commercial use of genetically modified (GM) crops has been increasing in light of the projected growth of world population to nine billion by 2050. A prerequisite of paramount importance for regulatory submissions is the rigorous safety assessment of GM crops. One of the components of safety assessment is molecular characterization at DNA level which helps to determine the copy number, integrity and stability of a transgene; characterize the integration site within a host genome; and confirm the absence of vector DNA. Historically, molecular characterization has been carried out using Southern blot analysis coupled with Sanger sequencing. While this is a robust approach to characterize the transgenic crops, it is both time- and resource-consuming. The emergence of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies has provided highly sensitive and cost- and labor-effective alternative for molecular characterization compared to traditional Southern blot analysis. Herein, we have demonstrated the successful application of both whole genome sequencing and target capture sequencing approaches for the characterization of single and stacked transgenic events and compared the results and inferences with traditional method with respect to key criteria required for regulatory submissions.

Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

1998-11-01

The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year weaken and even reverse during the following January. The same tendency, though not so clear, is observable in the dry anomalies of cold events. The seasons of largest anomalies disclosed by this study differ from those found by previous global studies for other regions in southeastern South America.This study expands the area of consistent warm (cold) event-related precipitation defined by previous studies in southeastern South America by including a region of larger anomalies, and provides a spatial and temporal refinement to the warm (cold) event-precipitation relationship.