Transgressive Hybrids as Hopeful Monsters.

PubMed

Dittrich-Reed, Dylan R; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M

2013-06-01

The origin of novelty is a critical subject for evolutionary biologists. Early geneticists speculated about the sudden appearance of new species via special macromutations, epitomized by Goldschmidt's infamous "hopeful monster". Although these ideas were easily dismissed by the insights of the Modern Synthesis, a lingering fascination with the possibility of sudden, dramatic change has persisted. Recent work on hybridization and gene exchange suggests an underappreciated mechanism for the sudden appearance of evolutionary novelty that is entirely consistent with the principles of modern population genetics. Genetic recombination in hybrids can produce transgressive phenotypes, "monstrous" phenotypes beyond the range of parental populations. Transgressive phenotypes can be products of epistatic interactions or additive effects of multiple recombined loci. We compare several epistatic and additive models of transgressive segregation in hybrids and find that they are special cases of a general, classic quantitative genetic model. The Dobzhansky-Muller model predicts "hopeless" monsters, sterile and inviable transgressive phenotypes. The Bateson model predicts "hopeful" monsters with fitness greater than either parental population. The complementation model predicts both. Transgressive segregation after hybridization can rapidly produce novel phenotypes by recombining multiple loci simultaneously. Admixed populations will also produce many similar recombinant phenotypes at the same time, increasing the probability that recombinant "hopeful monsters" will establish true-breeding evolutionary lineages. Recombination is not the only (or even most common) process generating evolutionary novelty, but might be the most credible mechanism for sudden appearance of new forms.

InterEvDock: a docking server to predict the structure of protein–protein interactions using evolutionary information

PubMed Central

Yu, Jinchao; Vavrusa, Marek; Andreani, Jessica; Rey, Julien; Tufféry, Pierre; Guerois, Raphaël

2016-01-01

The structural modeling of protein–protein interactions is key in understanding how cell machineries cross-talk with each other. Molecular docking simulations provide efficient means to explore how two unbound protein structures interact. InterEvDock is a server for protein docking based on a free rigid-body docking strategy. A systematic rigid-body docking search is performed using the FRODOCK program and the resulting models are re-scored with InterEvScore and SOAP-PP statistical potentials. The InterEvScore potential was specifically designed to integrate co-evolutionary information in the docking process. InterEvDock server is thus particularly well suited in case homologous sequences are available for both binding partners. The server returns 10 structures of the most likely consensus models together with 10 predicted residues most likely involved in the interface. In 91% of all complexes tested in the benchmark, at least one residue out of the 10 predicted is involved in the interface, providing useful guidelines for mutagenesis. InterEvDock is able to identify a correct model among the top10 models for 49% of the rigid-body cases with evolutionary information, making it a unique and efficient tool to explore structural interactomes under an evolutionary perspective. The InterEvDock web interface is available at http://bioserv.rpbs.univ-paris-diderot.fr/services/InterEvDock/. PMID:27131368

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Eco-genetic modeling of contemporary life-history evolution.

PubMed

Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Dieckmann, Ulf

2009-10-01

We present eco-genetic modeling as a flexible tool for exploring the course and rates of multi-trait life-history evolution in natural populations. We build on existing modeling approaches by combining features that facilitate studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of realistically structured populations. In particular, the joint consideration of age and size structure enables the analysis of phenotypically plastic populations with more than a single growth trajectory, and ecological feedback is readily included in the form of density dependence and frequency dependence. Stochasticity and life-history trade-offs can also be implemented. Critically, eco-genetic models permit the incorporation of salient genetic detail such as a population's genetic variances and covariances and the corresponding heritabilities, as well as the probabilistic inheritance and phenotypic expression of quantitative traits. These inclusions are crucial for predicting rates of evolutionary change on both contemporary and longer timescales. An eco-genetic model can be tightly coupled with empirical data and therefore may have considerable practical relevance, in terms of generating testable predictions and evaluating alternative management measures. To illustrate the utility of these models, we present as an example an eco-genetic model used to study harvest-induced evolution of multiple traits in Atlantic cod. The predictions of our model (most notably that harvesting induces a genetic reduction in age and size at maturation, an increase or decrease in growth capacity depending on the minimum-length limit, and an increase in reproductive investment) are corroborated by patterns observed in wild populations. The predicted genetic changes occur together with plastic changes that could phenotypically mask the former. Importantly, our analysis predicts that evolutionary changes show little signs of reversal following a harvest moratorium. This illustrates how predictions offered by eco-genetic models can enable and guide evolutionarily sustainable resource management.

Laboratory evolution of the migratory polymorphism in the sand cricket: combining physiology with quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Roff, Derek A; Fairbairn, Daphne J

2007-01-01

Predicting evolutionary change is the central goal of evolutionary biology because it is the primary means by which we can test evolutionary hypotheses. In this article, we analyze the pattern of evolutionary change in a laboratory population of the wing-dimorphic sand cricket Gryllus firmus resulting from relaxation of selection favoring the migratory (long-winged) morph. Based on a well-characterized trade-off between fecundity and flight capability, we predict that evolution in the laboratory environment should result in a reduction in the proportion of long-winged morphs. We also predict increased fecundity and reduced functionality and weight of the major flight muscles in long-winged females but little change in short-winged (flightless) females. Based on quantitative genetic theory, we predict that the regression equation describing the trade-off between ovary weight and weight of the major flight muscles will show a change in its intercept but not in its slope. Comparisons across generations verify all of these predictions. Further, using values of genetic parameters estimated from previous studies, we show that a quantitative genetic simulation model can account for not only the qualitative changes but also the evolutionary trajectory. These results demonstrate the power of combining quantitative genetic and physiological approaches for understanding the evolution of complex traits.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neugent, Kathryn F.; Massey, Philip; Skiff, Brian

Due to their transitionary nature, yellow supergiants (YSGs) provide a critical challenge for evolutionary modeling. Previous studies within M31 and the Small Magellanic Cloud show that the Geneva evolutionary models do a poor job at predicting the lifetimes of these short-lived stars. Here, we extend this study to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) while also investigating the galaxy's red supergiant (RSG) content. This task is complicated by contamination by Galactic foreground stars that color and magnitude criteria alone cannot weed out. Therefore, we use proper-motions and the LMC's large systemic radial velocity ({approx}278 km s{sup -1}) to separate out thesemore » foreground dwarfs. After observing nearly 2000 stars, we identified 317 probable YSGs, 6 possible YSGs, and 505 probable RSGs. Foreground contamination of our YSG sample was {approx}80%, while that of the RSG sample was only 3%. By placing the YSGs on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram and comparing them against the evolutionary tracks, we find that new Geneva evolutionary models do an exemplary job at predicting both the locations and the lifetimes of these transitory objects.« less

The evolution of life-history variation in fishes, with particular reference to flatfishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roff, Derek A.

This paper explores four aspects of the evolution of life-history variation in fish, with particular reference to the flatfishes: 1. genetic variation and evolutionary response; 2. the size and age at first reproduction; 3. adult lifespan and variation in recruitment; 4. the relationship between reproductive effort and age. Evolutionary response may be limited by previous evolutionary pathways (phylogenetic variation) or by lack of genetic variation due to selection for a single trait. Estimates of heritability suggest, as predicted, that selection is stronger on life-history traits than morphological traits; but there is still adequate genetic variation to permit fairly rapid evolutionary changes. Several approaches to the analysis of the optimal age and size at first reproduction are discussed in the light of a general life-history model based on the assumption that natural selection maximizes r or R 0. It is concluded that one of the most important areas of future research is the relationship between reproduction and mortality. Murphy's hypothesis that the reproductive lifespan should increase with variation in spawning success is shown to be incorrect for fish, at least at the level of interspecific comparison. The model of Charlesworth & León predicting the sufficient condition for reproductive effort to increase with age is tested: in 28 of 31 cases the model predicts an increase of reproductive effort with age. These results suggest that, in general, reproductive effort should increase with age in fish. This prediction is confirmed in the 15 species for which adequate data exist.

Colour spaces in ecology and evolutionary biology.

PubMed

Renoult, Julien P; Kelber, Almut; Schaefer, H Martin

2017-02-01

The recognition that animals sense the world in a different way than we do has unlocked important lines of research in ecology and evolutionary biology. In practice, the subjective study of natural stimuli has been permitted by perceptual spaces, which are graphical models of how stimuli are perceived by a given animal. Because colour vision is arguably the best-known sensory modality in most animals, a diversity of colour spaces are now available to visual ecologists, ranging from generalist and basic models allowing rough but robust predictions on colour perception, to species-specific, more complex models giving accurate but context-dependent predictions. Selecting among these models is most often influenced by historical contingencies that have associated models to specific questions and organisms; however, these associations are not always optimal. The aim of this review is to provide visual ecologists with a critical perspective on how models of colour space are built, how well they perform and where their main limitations are with regard to their most frequent uses in ecology and evolutionary biology. We propose a classification of models based on their complexity, defined as whether and how they model the mechanisms of chromatic adaptation and receptor opponency, the nonlinear association between the stimulus and its perception, and whether or not models have been fitted to experimental data. Then, we review the effect of modelling these mechanisms on predictions of colour detection and discrimination, colour conspicuousness, colour diversity and diversification, and for comparing the perception of colour traits between distinct perceivers. While a few rules emerge (e.g. opponent log-linear models should be preferred when analysing very distinct colours), in general model parameters still have poorly known effects. Colour spaces have nonetheless permitted significant advances in ecology and evolutionary biology, and more progress is expected if ecologists compare results between models and perform behavioural experiments more routinely. Such an approach would further contribute to a better understanding of colour vision and its links to the behavioural ecology of animals. While visual ecology is essentially a transfer of knowledge from visual sciences to evolutionary ecology, we hope that the discipline will benefit both fields more evenly in the future. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Orbital Debris Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J. C.

2012-01-01

Presentation outlne: (1) The NASA Orbital Debris (OD) Engineering Model -- A mathematical model capable of predicting OD impact risks for the ISS and other critical space assets (2) The NASA OD Evolutionary Model -- A physical model capable of predicting future debris environment based on user-specified scenarios (3) The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model -- A model describing the outcome of a satellite breakup (explosion or collision)

Discovery of Novel HIV-1 Integrase Inhibitors Using QSAR-Based Virtual Screening of the NCI Open Database.

PubMed

Ko, Gene M; Garg, Rajni; Bailey, Barbara A; Kumar, Sunil

2016-01-01

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can be used as a predictive tool for virtual screening of chemical libraries to identify novel drug candidates. The aims of this paper were to report the results of a study performed for descriptor selection, QSAR model development, and virtual screening for identifying novel HIV-1 integrase inhibitor drug candidates. First, three evolutionary algorithms were compared for descriptor selection: differential evolution-binary particle swarm optimization (DE-BPSO), binary particle swarm optimization, and genetic algorithms. Next, three QSAR models were developed from an ensemble of multiple linear regression, partial least squares, and extremely randomized trees models. A comparison of the performances of three evolutionary algorithms showed that DE-BPSO has a significant improvement over the other two algorithms. QSAR models developed in this study were used in consensus as a predictive tool for virtual screening of the NCI Open Database containing 265,242 compounds to identify potential novel HIV-1 integrase inhibitors. Six compounds were predicted to be highly active (plC50 > 6) by each of the three models. The use of a hybrid evolutionary algorithm (DE-BPSO) for descriptor selection and QSAR model development in drug design is a novel approach. Consensus modeling may provide better predictivity by taking into account a broader range of chemical properties within the data set conducive for inhibition that may be missed by an individual model. The six compounds identified provide novel drug candidate leads in the design of next generation HIV- 1 integrase inhibitors targeting drug resistant mutant viruses.

Differences in evolutionary history translate into differences in invasion success of alien mammals in South Africa

PubMed Central

Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Gere, Jephris; Daru, Barnabas H; van der Bank, Michelle

2014-01-01

Attempts to investigate the drivers of invasion success are generally limited to the biological and evolutionary traits distinguishing native from introduced species. Although alien species introduced to the same recipient environment differ in their invasion intensity – for example, some are “strong invaders”; others are “weak invaders” – the factors underlying the variation in invasion success within alien communities are little explored. In this study, we ask what drives the variation in invasion success of alien mammals in South Africa. First, we tested for taxonomic and phylogenetic signal in invasion intensity. Second, we reconstructed predictive models of the variation in invasion intensity among alien mammals using the generalized linear mixed-effects models. We found that the family Bovidae and the order Artiodactyla contained more “strong invaders” than expected by chance, and that such taxonomic signal did not translate into phylogenetic selectivity. In addition, our study indicates that latitude, gestation length, social group size, and human population density are only marginal determinant of the variation in invasion success. However, we found that evolutionary distinctiveness – a parameter characterising the uniqueness of each alien species – is the most important predictive variable. Our results indicate that the invasive behavior of alien mammals may have been “fingerprinted” in their evolutionary past, and that evolutionary history might capture beyond ecological, biological and life-history traits usually prioritized in predictive modeling of invasion success. These findings have applicability to the management of alien mammals in South Africa. PMID:25360253

On joint subtree distributions under two evolutionary models.

PubMed

Wu, Taoyang; Choi, Kwok Pui

2016-04-01

In population and evolutionary biology, hypotheses about micro-evolutionary and macro-evolutionary processes are commonly tested by comparing the shape indices of empirical evolutionary trees with those predicted by neutral models. A key ingredient in this approach is the ability to compute and quantify distributions of various tree shape indices under random models of interest. As a step to meet this challenge, in this paper we investigate the joint distribution of cherries and pitchforks (that is, subtrees with two and three leaves) under two widely used null models: the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) model and the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) model. Based on two novel recursive formulae, we propose a dynamic approach to numerically compute the exact joint distribution (and hence the marginal distributions) for trees of any size. We also obtained insights into the statistical properties of trees generated under these two models, including a constant correlation between the cherry and the pitchfork distributions under the YHK model, and the log-concavity and unimodality of the cherry distributions under both models. In addition, we show that there exists a unique change point for the cherry distributions between these two models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting patchy particle crystals: variable box shape simulations and evolutionary algorithms.

PubMed

Bianchi, Emanuela; Doppelbauer, Günther; Filion, Laura; Dijkstra, Marjolein; Kahl, Gerhard

2012-06-07

We consider several patchy particle models that have been proposed in literature and we investigate their candidate crystal structures in a systematic way. We compare two different algorithms for predicting crystal structures: (i) an approach based on Monte Carlo simulations in the isobaric-isothermal ensemble and (ii) an optimization technique based on ideas of evolutionary algorithms. We show that the two methods are equally successful and provide consistent results on crystalline phases of patchy particle systems.

Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles for breast cancer and Parkinson's disease prediction.

PubMed

Khan, Maryam Mahsal; Mendes, Alexandre; Chalup, Stephan K

2018-01-01

Wavelet Neural Networks are a combination of neural networks and wavelets and have been mostly used in the area of time-series prediction and control. Recently, Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks have been employed to develop cancer prediction models. The present study proposes to use ensembles of Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks. The search for a high quality ensemble is directed by a fitness function that incorporates the accuracy of the classifiers both independently and as part of the ensemble itself. The ensemble approach is tested on three publicly available biomedical benchmark datasets, one on Breast Cancer and two on Parkinson's disease, using a 10-fold cross-validation strategy. Our experimental results show that, for the first dataset, the performance was similar to previous studies reported in literature. On the second dataset, the Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles performed better than all previous methods. The third dataset is relatively new and this study is the first to report benchmark results.

Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles for breast cancer and Parkinson’s disease prediction

PubMed Central

Mendes, Alexandre; Chalup, Stephan K.

2018-01-01

Wavelet Neural Networks are a combination of neural networks and wavelets and have been mostly used in the area of time-series prediction and control. Recently, Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks have been employed to develop cancer prediction models. The present study proposes to use ensembles of Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks. The search for a high quality ensemble is directed by a fitness function that incorporates the accuracy of the classifiers both independently and as part of the ensemble itself. The ensemble approach is tested on three publicly available biomedical benchmark datasets, one on Breast Cancer and two on Parkinson’s disease, using a 10-fold cross-validation strategy. Our experimental results show that, for the first dataset, the performance was similar to previous studies reported in literature. On the second dataset, the Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles performed better than all previous methods. The third dataset is relatively new and this study is the first to report benchmark results. PMID:29420578

Improving Environmental Model Calibration and Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-18

REPORT Final Report - Improving Environmental Model Calibration and Prediction 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: First, we have continued to...develop tools for efficient global optimization of environmental models. Our algorithms are hybrid algorithms that combine evolutionary strategies...toward practical hybrid optimization tools for environmental models. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 18-01-2011 13

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Protein Structure Prediction with Evolutionary Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, W.E.; Krasnogor, N.; Pelta, D.A.

1999-02-08

Evolutionary algorithms have been successfully applied to a variety of molecular structure prediction problems. In this paper we reconsider the design of genetic algorithms that have been applied to a simple protein structure prediction problem. Our analysis considers the impact of several algorithmic factors for this problem: the confirmational representation, the energy formulation and the way in which infeasible conformations are penalized, Further we empirically evaluated the impact of these factors on a small set of polymer sequences. Our analysis leads to specific recommendations for both GAs as well as other heuristic methods for solving PSP on the HP model.

A dynamic parking charge optimal control model under perspective of commuters' evolutionary game behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, XuXun; Yuan, PengCheng

2018-01-01

In this research we consider commuters' dynamic learning effect by modeling the trip mode choice behavior from a new perspective of dynamic evolutionary game theory. We explore the behavior pattern of different types of commuters and study the evolution path and equilibrium properties under different traffic conditions. We further establish a dynamic parking charge optimal control (referred to as DPCOC) model to alter commuters' trip mode choice while minimizing the total social cost. Numerical tests show. (1) Under fixed parking fee policy, the evolutionary results are completely decided by the travel time and the only method for public transit induction is to increase the parking charge price. (2) Compared with fixed parking fee policy, DPCOC policy proposed in this research has several advantages. Firstly, it can effectively turn the evolutionary path and evolutionary stable strategy to a better situation while minimizing the total social cost. Secondly, it can reduce the sensitivity of trip mode choice behavior to traffic congestion and improve the ability to resist interferences and emergencies. Thirdly, it is able to control the private car proportion to a stable state and make the trip behavior more predictable for the transportation management department. The research results can provide theoretical basis and decision-making references for commuters' mode choice prediction, dynamic setting of urban parking charge prices and public transit induction.

Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

PubMed

Araújo, Ricardo de A

2010-12-01

This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

Evolutionary Ensemble for In Silico Prediction of Ames Test Mutagenicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huanhuan; Yao, Xin

Driven by new regulations and animal welfare, the need to develop in silico models has increased recently as alternative approaches to safety assessment of chemicals without animal testing. This paper describes a novel machine learning ensemble approach to building an in silico model for the prediction of the Ames test mutagenicity, one of a battery of the most commonly used experimental in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity tests for safety evaluation of chemicals. Evolutionary random neural ensemble with negative correlation learning (ERNE) [1] was developed based on neural networks and evolutionary algorithms. ERNE combines the method of bootstrap sampling on training data with the method of random subspace feature selection to ensure diversity in creating individuals within an initial ensemble. Furthermore, while evolving individuals within the ensemble, it makes use of the negative correlation learning, enabling individual NNs to be trained as accurate as possible while still manage to maintain them as diverse as possible. Therefore, the resulting individuals in the final ensemble are capable of cooperating collectively to achieve better generalization of prediction. The empirical experiment suggest that ERNE is an effective ensemble approach for predicting the Ames test mutagenicity of chemicals.

A framework for evolutionary systems biology

PubMed Central

Loewe, Laurence

2009-01-01

Background Many difficult problems in evolutionary genomics are related to mutations that have weak effects on fitness, as the consequences of mutations with large effects are often simple to predict. Current systems biology has accumulated much data on mutations with large effects and can predict the properties of knockout mutants in some systems. However experimental methods are too insensitive to observe small effects. Results Here I propose a novel framework that brings together evolutionary theory and current systems biology approaches in order to quantify small effects of mutations and their epistatic interactions in silico. Central to this approach is the definition of fitness correlates that can be computed in some current systems biology models employing the rigorous algorithms that are at the core of much work in computational systems biology. The framework exploits synergies between the realism of such models and the need to understand real systems in evolutionary theory. This framework can address many longstanding topics in evolutionary biology by defining various 'levels' of the adaptive landscape. Addressed topics include the distribution of mutational effects on fitness, as well as the nature of advantageous mutations, epistasis and robustness. Combining corresponding parameter estimates with population genetics models raises the possibility of testing evolutionary hypotheses at a new level of realism. Conclusion EvoSysBio is expected to lead to a more detailed understanding of the fundamental principles of life by combining knowledge about well-known biological systems from several disciplines. This will benefit both evolutionary theory and current systems biology. Understanding robustness by analysing distributions of mutational effects and epistasis is pivotal for drug design, cancer research, responsible genetic engineering in synthetic biology and many other practical applications. PMID:19239699

Evolutionary Dynamic Multiobjective Optimization Via Kalman Filter Prediction.

PubMed

Muruganantham, Arrchana; Tan, Kay Chen; Vadakkepat, Prahlad

2016-12-01

Evolutionary algorithms are effective in solving static multiobjective optimization problems resulting in the emergence of a number of state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). Nevertheless, the interest in applying them to solve dynamic multiobjective optimization problems has only been tepid. Benchmark problems, appropriate performance metrics, as well as efficient algorithms are required to further the research in this field. One or more objectives may change with time in dynamic optimization problems. The optimization algorithm must be able to track the moving optima efficiently. A prediction model can learn the patterns from past experience and predict future changes. In this paper, a new dynamic MOEA using Kalman filter (KF) predictions in decision space is proposed to solve the aforementioned problems. The predictions help to guide the search toward the changed optima, thereby accelerating convergence. A scoring scheme is devised to hybridize the KF prediction with a random reinitialization method. Experimental results and performance comparisons with other state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is capable of significantly improving the dynamic optimization performance.

Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramberg, I. B.; Morgan, P.

1984-01-01

Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

Assessment of traffic noise levels in urban areas using different soft computing techniques.

PubMed

Tomić, J; Bogojević, N; Pljakić, M; Šumarac-Pavlović, D

2016-10-01

Available traffic noise prediction models are usually based on regression analysis of experimental data, and this paper presents the application of soft computing techniques in traffic noise prediction. Two mathematical models are proposed and their predictions are compared to data collected by traffic noise monitoring in urban areas, as well as to predictions of commonly used traffic noise models. The results show that application of evolutionary algorithms and neural networks may improve process of development, as well as accuracy of traffic noise prediction.

Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

PubMed

Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

2011-12-02

Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

PconsFold: improved contact predictions improve protein models.

PubMed

Michel, Mirco; Hayat, Sikander; Skwark, Marcin J; Sander, Chris; Marks, Debora S; Elofsson, Arne

2014-09-01

Recently it has been shown that the quality of protein contact prediction from evolutionary information can be improved significantly if direct and indirect information is separated. Given sufficiently large protein families, the contact predictions contain sufficient information to predict the structure of many protein families. However, since the first studies contact prediction methods have improved. Here, we ask how much the final models are improved if improved contact predictions are used. In a small benchmark of 15 proteins, we show that the TM-scores of top-ranked models are improved by on average 33% using PconsFold compared with the original version of EVfold. In a larger benchmark, we find that the quality is improved with 15-30% when using PconsC in comparison with earlier contact prediction methods. Further, using Rosetta instead of CNS does not significantly improve global model accuracy, but the chemistry of models generated with Rosetta is improved. PconsFold is a fully automated pipeline for ab initio protein structure prediction based on evolutionary information. PconsFold is based on PconsC contact prediction and uses the Rosetta folding protocol. Due to its modularity, the contact prediction tool can be easily exchanged. The source code of PconsFold is available on GitHub at https://www.github.com/ElofssonLab/pcons-fold under the MIT license. PconsC is available from http://c.pcons.net/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo

Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds.more » Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.« less

Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

PubMed

Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

2017-07-01

For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

Falsification of matching theory and confirmation of an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics in a critical experiment.

PubMed

McDowell, J J; Calvin, Olivia L; Hackett, Ryan; Klapes, Bryan

2017-07-01

Two competing predictions of matching theory and an evolutionary theory of behavior dynamics, and one additional prediction of the evolutionary theory, were tested in a critical experiment in which human participants worked on concurrent schedules for money (Dallery et al., 2005). The three predictions concerned the descriptive adequacy of matching theory equations, and of equations describing emergent equilibria of the evolutionary theory. Tests of the predictions falsified matching theory and supported the evolutionary theory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of dispersal in spatially and temporally variable environments: The importance of life cycles.

PubMed

Massol, François; Débarre, Florence

2015-07-01

Spatiotemporal variability of the environment is bound to affect the evolution of dispersal, and yet model predictions strongly differ on this particular effect. Recent studies on the evolution of local adaptation have shown that the life cycle chosen to model the selective effects of spatiotemporal variability of the environment is a critical factor determining evolutionary outcomes. Here, we investigate the effect of the order of events in the life cycle on the evolution of unconditional dispersal in a spatially heterogeneous, temporally varying landscape. Our results show that the occurrence of intermediate singular strategies and disruptive selection are conditioned by the temporal autocorrelation of the environment and by the life cycle. Life cycles with dispersal of adults versus dispersal of juveniles, local versus global density regulation, give radically different evolutionary outcomes that include selection for total philopatry, evolutionary bistability, selection for intermediate stable states, and evolutionary branching points. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for life-cycle specifics when predicting the effects of the environment on evolutionarily selected trait values, such as dispersal, as well as the need to check the robustness of model conclusions against modifications of the life cycle. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Evolutionary dynamics from a variational principle.

PubMed

Klimek, Peter; Thurner, Stefan; Hanel, Rudolf

2010-07-01

We demonstrate with a thought experiment that fitness-based population dynamical approaches to evolution are not able to make quantitative, falsifiable predictions about the long-term behavior of some evolutionary systems. A key characteristic of evolutionary systems is the ongoing endogenous production of new species. These novel entities change the conditions for already existing species. Even Darwin's Demon, a hypothetical entity with exact knowledge of the abundance of all species and their fitness functions at a given time, could not prestate the impact of these novelties on established populations. We argue that fitness is always a posteriori knowledge--it measures but does not explain why a species has reproductive success or not. To overcome these conceptual limitations, a variational principle is proposed in a spin-model-like setup of evolutionary systems. We derive a functional which is minimized under the most general evolutionary formulation of a dynamical system, i.e., evolutionary trajectories causally emerge as a minimization of a functional. This functional allows the derivation of analytic solutions of the asymptotic diversity for stochastic evolutionary systems within a mean-field approximation. We test these approximations by numerical simulations of the corresponding model and find good agreement in the position of phase transitions in diversity curves. The model is further able to reproduce stylized facts of timeseries from several man-made and natural evolutionary systems. Light will be thrown on how species and their fitness landscapes dynamically coevolve.

Studying the evolutionary significance of thermal adaptation in ectotherms: The diversification of amphibians' energetics.

PubMed

Nespolo, Roberto F; Figueroa, Julio; Solano-Iguaran, Jaiber J

2017-08-01

A fundamental problem in evolutionary biology is the understanding of the factors that promote or constrain adaptive evolution, and assessing the role of natural selection in this process. Here, comparative phylogenetics, that is, using phylogenetic information and traits to infer evolutionary processes has been a major paradigm . In this study, we discuss Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models (OU) in the context of thermal adaptation in ectotherms. We specifically applied this approach to study amphibians's evolution and energy metabolism. It has been hypothesized that amphibians exploit adaptive zones characterized by low energy expenditure, which generate specific predictions in terms of the patterns of diversification in standard metabolic rate (SMR). We complied whole-animal metabolic rates for 122 species of amphibians, and adjusted several models of diversification. According to the adaptive zone hypothesis, we expected: (1) to find "accelerated evolution" in SMR (i.e., diversification above Brownian Motion expectations, BM), (2) that a model assuming evolutionary optima (i.e., an OU model) fits better than a white-noise model and (3) that a model assuming multiple optima (according to the three amphibians's orders) fits better than a model assuming a single optimum. As predicted, we found that the diversification of SMR occurred most of the time, above BM expectations. Also, we found that a model assuming an optimum explained the data in a better way than a white-noise model. However, we did not find evidence that an OU model with multiple optima fits the data better, suggesting a single optimum in SMR for Anura, Caudata and Gymnophiona. These results show how comparative phylogenetics could be applied for testing adaptive hypotheses regarding history and physiological performance in ectotherms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring evolution of gene duplicates using probabilistic models and nonparametric belief propagation.

PubMed

Zeng, Jia; Hannenhalli, Sridhar

2013-01-01

Gene duplication, followed by functional evolution of duplicate genes, is a primary engine of evolutionary innovation. In turn, gene expression evolution is a critical component of overall functional evolution of paralogs. Inferring evolutionary history of gene expression among paralogs is therefore a problem of considerable interest. It also represents significant challenges. The standard approaches of evolutionary reconstruction assume that at an internal node of the duplication tree, the two duplicates evolve independently. However, because of various selection pressures functional evolution of the two paralogs may be coupled. The coupling of paralog evolution corresponds to three major fates of gene duplicates: subfunctionalization (SF), conserved function (CF) or neofunctionalization (NF). Quantitative analysis of these fates is of great interest and clearly influences evolutionary inference of expression. These two interrelated problems of inferring gene expression and evolutionary fates of gene duplicates have not been studied together previously and motivate the present study. Here we propose a novel probabilistic framework and algorithm to simultaneously infer (i) ancestral gene expression and (ii) the likely fate (SF, NF, CF) at each duplication event during the evolution of gene family. Using tissue-specific gene expression data, we develop a nonparametric belief propagation (NBP) algorithm to predict the ancestral expression level as a proxy for function, and describe a novel probabilistic model that relates the predicted and known expression levels to the possible evolutionary fates. We validate our model using simulation and then apply it to a genome-wide set of gene duplicates in human. Our results suggest that SF tends to be more frequent at the earlier stage of gene family expansion, while NF occurs more frequently later on.

Chaos and unpredictability in evolution.

PubMed

Doebeli, Michael; Ispolatov, Iaroslav

2014-05-01

The possibility of complicated dynamic behavior driven by nonlinear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of "survival of the fittest" is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are selective interactions between the phenotypic components. Our results suggest that the perspective of evolution as a process with simple, predictable dynamics covers only a small fragment of long-term evolution. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Parasites and deleterious mutations: interactions influencing the evolutionary maintenance of sex.

PubMed

Park, A W; Jokela, J; Michalakis, Y

2010-05-01

The restrictive assumptions associated with purely genetic and purely ecological mechanisms suggest that neither of the two forces, in isolation, can offer a general explanation for the evolutionary maintenance of sex. Consequently, attention has turned to pluralistic models (i.e. models that apply both ecological and genetic mechanisms). Existing research has shown that combining mutation accumulation and parasitism allows restrictive assumptions about genetic and parasite parameter values to be relaxed while still predicting the maintenance of sex. However, several empirical studies have shown that deleterious mutations and parasitism can reduce fitness to a greater extent than would be expected if the two acted independently. We show how interactions between these genetic and ecological forces can completely reverse predictions about the evolution of reproductive modes. Moreover, we demonstrate that synergistic interactions between infection and deleterious mutations can render sex evolutionarily stable even when there is antagonistic epistasis among deleterious mutations, thereby widening the conditions for the evolutionary maintenance of sex.

Cycle frequency in standard Rock-Paper-Scissors games: Evidence from experimental economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bin; Zhou, Hai-Jun; Wang, Zhijian

2013-10-01

The Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) game is a widely used model system in game theory. Evolutionary game theory predicts the existence of persistent cycles in the evolutionary trajectories of the RPS game, but experimental evidence has remained to be rather weak. In this work, we performed laboratory experiments on the RPS game and analyzed the social-state evolutionary trajectories of twelve populations of N=6 players. We found strong evidence supporting the existence of persistent cycles. The mean cycling frequency was measured to be 0.029±0.009 period per experimental round. Our experimental observations can be quantitatively explained by a simple non-equilibrium model, namely the discrete-time logit dynamical process with a noise parameter. Our work therefore favors the evolutionary game theory over the classical game theory for describing the dynamical behavior of the RPS game.

The evolutionary time machine: forecasting how populations can adapt to changing environments using dormant propagules

PubMed Central

Orsini, Luisa; Schwenk, Klaus; De Meester, Luc; Colbourne, John K.; Pfrender, Michael E.; Weider, Lawrence J.

2013-01-01

Evolutionary changes are determined by a complex assortment of ecological, demographic and adaptive histories. Predicting how evolution will shape the genetic structures of populations coping with current (and future) environmental challenges has principally relied on investigations through space, in lieu of time, because long-term phenotypic and molecular data are scarce. Yet, dormant propagules in sediments, soils and permafrost are convenient natural archives of population-histories from which to trace adaptive trajectories along extended time periods. DNA sequence data obtained from these natural archives, combined with pioneering methods for analyzing both ecological and population genomic time-series data, are likely to provide predictive models to forecast evolutionary responses of natural populations to environmental changes resulting from natural and anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. PMID:23395434

Evolutionary change in physiological phenotypes along the human lineage

PubMed Central

Vining, Alexander Q.; Nunn, Charles L.

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives: Research in evolutionary medicine provides many examples of how evolution has shaped human susceptibility to disease. Traits undergoing rapid evolutionary change may result in associated costs or reduce the energy available to other traits. We hypothesize that humans have experienced more such changes than other primates as a result of major evolutionary change along the human lineage. We investigated 41 physiological traits across 50 primate species to identify traits that have undergone marked evolutionary change along the human lineage. Methodology: We analysed the data using two Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods. One approach models trait covariation in non-human primates and predicts human phenotypes to identify whether humans are evolutionary outliers. The other approach models adaptive shifts under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution to assess whether inferred shifts are more common on the human branch than on other primate lineages. Results: We identified four traits with strong evidence for an evolutionary increase on the human lineage (amylase, haematocrit, phosphorus and monocytes) and one trait with strong evidence for decrease (neutrophilic bands). Humans exhibited more cases of distinct evolutionary change than other primates. Conclusions and Implications: Human physiology has undergone increased evolutionary change compared to other primates. Long distance running may have contributed to increases in haematocrit and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, while dietary changes are likely related to increases in amylase. In accordance with the pathogen load hypothesis, human monocyte levels were increased, but many other immune-related measures were not. Determining the mechanisms underlying conspicuous evolutionary change in these traits may provide new insights into human disease. PMID:27615376

Host shifts and evolutionary radiations of butterflies

PubMed Central

Fordyce, James A.

2010-01-01

Ehrlich and Raven proposed a model of coevolution where major host plant shifts of butterflies facilitate a burst of diversification driven by their arrival to a new adaptive zone. One prediction of this model is that reconstructions of historical diversification of butterflies should indicate an increase in diversification rate following major host shifts. Using reconstructed histories of 15 butterfly groups, I tested this prediction and found general agreement with Ehrlich and Raven's model. Butterfly lineages with an inferred major historical host shift showed evidence of diversification rate variation, with a significant acceleration following the host shift. Lineages without an inferred major host shift generally agreed with a constant-rate model of diversification. These results are consistent with the view that host plant associations have played a profound role in the evolutionary history of butterflies, and show that major shifts to chemically distinct plant groups leave a historical footprint that remains detectable today. PMID:20610430

Upon Accounting for the Impact of Isoenzyme Loss, Gene Deletion Costs Anticorrelate with Their Evolutionary Rates.

PubMed

Jacobs, Christopher; Lambourne, Luke; Xia, Yu; Segrè, Daniel

2017-01-01

System-level metabolic network models enable the computation of growth and metabolic phenotypes from an organism's genome. In particular, flux balance approaches have been used to estimate the contribution of individual metabolic genes to organismal fitness, offering the opportunity to test whether such contributions carry information about the evolutionary pressure on the corresponding genes. Previous failure to identify the expected negative correlation between such computed gene-loss cost and sequence-derived evolutionary rates in Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been ascribed to a real biological gap between a gene's fitness contribution to an organism "here and now" and the same gene's historical importance as evidenced by its accumulated mutations over millions of years of evolution. Here we show that this negative correlation does exist, and can be exposed by revisiting a broadly employed assumption of flux balance models. In particular, we introduce a new metric that we call "function-loss cost", which estimates the cost of a gene loss event as the total potential functional impairment caused by that loss. This new metric displays significant negative correlation with evolutionary rate, across several thousand minimal environments. We demonstrate that the improvement gained using function-loss cost over gene-loss cost is explained by replacing the base assumption that isoenzymes provide unlimited capacity for backup with the assumption that isoenzymes are completely non-redundant. We further show that this change of the assumption regarding isoenzymes increases the recall of epistatic interactions predicted by the flux balance model at the cost of a reduction in the precision of the predictions. In addition to suggesting that the gene-to-reaction mapping in genome-scale flux balance models should be used with caution, our analysis provides new evidence that evolutionary gene importance captures much more than strict essentiality.

The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, S.; He, W.

2016-12-01

The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data." On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM), including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

2015-01-01

Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

General Methods for Evolutionary Quantitative Genetic Inference from Generalized Mixed Models.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Schielzeth, Holger; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Morrissey, Michael

2016-11-01

Methods for inference and interpretation of evolutionary quantitative genetic parameters, and for prediction of the response to selection, are best developed for traits with normal distributions. Many traits of evolutionary interest, including many life history and behavioral traits, have inherently nonnormal distributions. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) framework has become a widely used tool for estimating quantitative genetic parameters for nonnormal traits. However, whereas GLMMs provide inference on a statistically convenient latent scale, it is often desirable to express quantitative genetic parameters on the scale upon which traits are measured. The parameters of fitted GLMMs, despite being on a latent scale, fully determine all quantities of potential interest on the scale on which traits are expressed. We provide expressions for deriving each of such quantities, including population means, phenotypic (co)variances, variance components including additive genetic (co)variances, and parameters such as heritability. We demonstrate that fixed effects have a strong impact on those parameters and show how to deal with this by averaging or integrating over fixed effects. The expressions require integration of quantities determined by the link function, over distributions of latent values. In general cases, the required integrals must be solved numerically, but efficient methods are available and we provide an implementation in an R package, QGglmm. We show that known formulas for quantities such as heritability of traits with binomial and Poisson distributions are special cases of our expressions. Additionally, we show how fitted GLMM can be incorporated into existing methods for predicting evolutionary trajectories. We demonstrate the accuracy of the resulting method for evolutionary prediction by simulation and apply our approach to data from a wild pedigreed vertebrate population. Copyright © 2016 de Villemereuil et al.

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

PubMed Central

Baskett, Marissa L.

2016-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype–environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests. PMID:27655762

Evolution in agriculture: the application of evolutionary approaches to the management of biotic interactions in agro-ecosystems

PubMed Central

Thrall, Peter H; Oakeshott, John G; Fitt, Gary; Southerton, Simon; Burdon, Jeremy J; Sheppard, Andy; Russell, Robyn J; Zalucki, Myron; Heino, Mikko; Ford Denison, R

2011-01-01

Anthropogenic impacts increasingly drive ecological and evolutionary processes at many spatio-temporal scales, demanding greater capacity to predict and manage their consequences. This is particularly true for agro-ecosystems, which not only comprise a significant proportion of land use, but which also involve conflicting imperatives to expand or intensify production while simultaneously reducing environmental impacts. These imperatives reinforce the likelihood of further major changes in agriculture over the next 30–40 years. Key transformations include genetic technologies as well as changes in land use. The use of evolutionary principles is not new in agriculture (e.g. crop breeding, domestication of animals, management of selection for pest resistance), but given land-use trends and other transformative processes in production landscapes, ecological and evolutionary research in agro-ecosystems must consider such issues in a broader systems context. Here, we focus on biotic interactions involving pests and pathogens as exemplars of situations where integration of agronomic, ecological and evolutionary perspectives has practical value. Although their presence in agro-ecosystems may be new, many traits involved in these associations evolved in natural settings. We advocate the use of predictive frameworks based on evolutionary models as pre-emptive management tools and identify some specific research opportunities to facilitate this. We conclude with a brief discussion of multidisciplinary approaches in applied evolutionary problems. PMID:25567968

Disruptive selection as a driver of evolutionary branching and caste evolution in social insects.

PubMed

Planqué, R; Powell, S; Franks, N R; van den Berg, J B

2016-11-01

Theory suggests that evolutionary branching via disruptive selection may be a relatively common and powerful force driving phenotypic divergence. Here, we extend this theory to social insects, which have novel social axes of phenotypic diversification. Our model, built around turtle ant (Cephalotes) biology, is used to explore whether disruptive selection can drive the evolutionary branching of divergent colony phenotypes that include a novel soldier caste. Soldier evolution is a recurrent theme in social insect diversification that is exemplified in the turtle ants. We show that phenotypic mutants can gain competitive advantages that induce disruptive selection and subsequent branching. A soldier caste does not generally appear before branching, but can evolve from subsequent competition. The soldier caste then evolves in association with specialized resource preferences that maximize defensive performance. Overall, our model indicates that resource specialization may occur in the absence of morphological specialization, but that when morphological specialization evolves, it is always in association with resource specialization. This evolutionary coupling of ecological and morphological specialization is consistent with recent empirical evidence, but contrary to predictions of classical caste theory. Our model provides a new theoretical understanding of the ecology of caste evolution that explicitly considers the process of adaptive phenotypic divergence and diversification. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The impact of fishing-induced mortality on the evolution of alternative life-history tactics in brook charr

PubMed Central

Thériault, Véronique; Dunlop, Erin S; Dieckmann, Ulf; Bernatchez, Louis; Dodson, Julian J

2008-01-01

Although contemporary trends indicative of evolutionary change have been detected in the life-history traits of exploited populations, it is not known to what extent fishing influences the evolution of alternative life-history tactics in migratory species such as salmonids. Here, we build a model to predict the evolution of anadromy and residency in an exploited population of brook charr, Salvelinus fontinalis. Our model allows for both phenotypic plasticity and genetic change in the age and size at migration by including migration reaction norms. Using this model, we predict that fishing of anadromous individuals over the course of 100 years causes evolution in the migration reaction norm, resulting in a decrease in average probabilities of migration with increasing harvest rate. Moreover, we show that differences in natural mortalities in freshwater greatly influence the magnitude and rate of evolutionary change. The fishing-induced changes in migration predicted by our model alter population abundances and reproductive output and should be accounted for in the sustainable management of salmonids. PMID:25567640

ConSurf 2016: an improved methodology to estimate and visualize evolutionary conservation in macromolecules

PubMed Central

Ashkenazy, Haim; Abadi, Shiran; Martz, Eric; Chay, Ofer; Mayrose, Itay; Pupko, Tal; Ben-Tal, Nir

2016-01-01

The degree of evolutionary conservation of an amino acid in a protein or a nucleic acid in DNA/RNA reflects a balance between its natural tendency to mutate and the overall need to retain the structural integrity and function of the macromolecule. The ConSurf web server (http://consurf.tau.ac.il), established over 15 years ago, analyses the evolutionary pattern of the amino/nucleic acids of the macromolecule to reveal regions that are important for structure and/or function. Starting from a query sequence or structure, the server automatically collects homologues, infers their multiple sequence alignment and reconstructs a phylogenetic tree that reflects their evolutionary relations. These data are then used, within a probabilistic framework, to estimate the evolutionary rates of each sequence position. Here we introduce several new features into ConSurf, including automatic selection of the best evolutionary model used to infer the rates, the ability to homology-model query proteins, prediction of the secondary structure of query RNA molecules from sequence, the ability to view the biological assembly of a query (in addition to the single chain), mapping of the conservation grades onto 2D RNA models and an advanced view of the phylogenetic tree that enables interactively rerunning ConSurf with the taxa of a sub-tree. PMID:27166375

Phylogenetic tree and community structure from a Tangled Nature model.

PubMed

Canko, Osman; Taşkın, Ferhat; Argın, Kamil

2015-10-07

In evolutionary biology, the taxonomy and origination of species are widely studied subjects. An estimation of the evolutionary tree can be done via available DNA sequence data. The calculation of the tree is made by well-known and frequently used methods such as maximum likelihood and neighbor-joining. In order to examine the results of these methods, an evolutionary tree is pursued computationally by a mathematical model, called Tangled Nature. A relatively small genome space is investigated due to computational burden and it is found that the actual and predicted trees are in reasonably good agreement in terms of shape. Moreover, the speciation and the resulting community structure of the food-web are investigated by modularity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary and Functional Relationships in the Truncated Hemoglobin Family.

PubMed

Bustamante, Juan P; Radusky, Leandro; Boechi, Leonardo; Estrin, Darío A; Ten Have, Arjen; Martí, Marcelo A

2016-01-01

Predicting function from sequence is an important goal in current biological research, and although, broad functional assignment is possible when a protein is assigned to a family, predicting functional specificity with accuracy is not straightforward. If function is provided by key structural properties and the relevant properties can be computed using the sequence as the starting point, it should in principle be possible to predict function in detail. The truncated hemoglobin family presents an interesting benchmark study due to their ubiquity, sequence diversity in the context of a conserved fold and the number of characterized members. Their functions are tightly related to O2 affinity and reactivity, as determined by the association and dissociation rate constants, both of which can be predicted and analyzed using in-silico based tools. In the present work we have applied a strategy, which combines homology modeling with molecular based energy calculations, to predict and analyze function of all known truncated hemoglobins in an evolutionary context. Our results show that truncated hemoglobins present conserved family features, but that its structure is flexible enough to allow the switch from high to low affinity in a few evolutionary steps. Most proteins display moderate to high oxygen affinities and multiple ligand migration paths, which, besides some minor trends, show heterogeneous distributions throughout the phylogenetic tree, again suggesting fast functional adaptation. Our data not only deepens our comprehension of the structural basis governing ligand affinity, but they also highlight some interesting functional evolutionary trends.

Evolutionary and Functional Relationships in the Truncated Hemoglobin Family

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Juan P.; Radusky, Leandro; Boechi, Leonardo; Estrin, Darío A.; ten Have, Arjen; Martí, Marcelo A.

2016-01-01

Predicting function from sequence is an important goal in current biological research, and although, broad functional assignment is possible when a protein is assigned to a family, predicting functional specificity with accuracy is not straightforward. If function is provided by key structural properties and the relevant properties can be computed using the sequence as the starting point, it should in principle be possible to predict function in detail. The truncated hemoglobin family presents an interesting benchmark study due to their ubiquity, sequence diversity in the context of a conserved fold and the number of characterized members. Their functions are tightly related to O2 affinity and reactivity, as determined by the association and dissociation rate constants, both of which can be predicted and analyzed using in-silico based tools. In the present work we have applied a strategy, which combines homology modeling with molecular based energy calculations, to predict and analyze function of all known truncated hemoglobins in an evolutionary context. Our results show that truncated hemoglobins present conserved family features, but that its structure is flexible enough to allow the switch from high to low affinity in a few evolutionary steps. Most proteins display moderate to high oxygen affinities and multiple ligand migration paths, which, besides some minor trends, show heterogeneous distributions throughout the phylogenetic tree, again suggesting fast functional adaptation. Our data not only deepens our comprehension of the structural basis governing ligand affinity, but they also highlight some interesting functional evolutionary trends. PMID:26788940

The genetic basis of traits regulating sperm competition and polyandry: can selection favour the evolution of good- and sexy-sperm?

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan P; Simmons, Leigh W

2008-09-01

The good-sperm and sexy-sperm (GS-SS) hypotheses predict that female multiple mating (polyandry) can fuel sexual selection for heritable male traits that promote success in sperm competition. A major prediction generated by these models, therefore, is that polyandry will benefit females indirectly via their sons' enhanced fertilization success. Furthermore, like classic 'good genes' and 'sexy son' models for the evolution of female preferences, GS-SS processes predict a genetic correlation between genes for female mating frequency (analogous to the female preference) and those for traits influencing fertilization success (the sexually selected traits). We examine the premise for these predictions by exploring the genetic basis of traits thought to influence fertilization success and female mating frequency. We also highlight recent debates that stress the possible genetic constraints to evolution of traits influencing fertilization success via GS-SS processes, including sex-linked inheritance, nonadditive effects, interacting parental genotypes, and trade-offs between integrated ejaculate components. Despite these possible constraints, the available data suggest that male traits involved in sperm competition typically exhibit substantial additive genetic variance and rapid evolutionary responses to selection. Nevertheless, the limited data on the genetic variation in female mating frequency implicate strong genetic maternal effects, including X-linkage, which is inconsistent with GS-SS processes. Although the relative paucity of studies on the genetic basis of polyandry does not allow us to draw firm conclusions about the evolutionary origins of this trait, the emerging pattern of sex linkage in genes for polyandry is more consistent with an evolutionary history of antagonistic selection over mating frequency. We advocate further development of GS-SS theory to take account of the complex evolutionary dynamics imposed by sexual conflict over mating frequency.

An evolutionary psychological investigation of parental distress and reproductive coercion during the "coming out" of gay sons.

PubMed

Wisniewski, Timothy J; Robinson, Thomas N; Deluty, Robert H

2010-01-01

The lack of success of the "coming out" studies over the last three decades to explain and predict parental responses has motivated an evolutionary psychological reconceptualization. According to this reconceptualization, it was predicted that (a) biological mothers would experience more distress and apply more pressure on gay sons to change than would biological fathers and; (b) obligate investment for fathers on dependent sons would cause fathers to experience more distress and apply more pressure on gay sons to change than it would fathers without this obligate investment. In contrast, a cultural-norm hypothesis predicted that fathers would experience more distress and apply more pressure on gay sons to change than mothers. The majority of predictions were tested using 787 participants from two-biological parent families, who were drawn from a total sample of 891 participants from various family backgrounds. As predicted by the evolutionary hypothesis, biological mothers were reported to have been more distressed and coercive than biological fathers, in spite of a strong, societal expectation to the contrary. Furthermore, the results supported the obligate investment argument for paternal reactions. The model not only correctly explained and predicted parental behavior during coming out, but also was shown to unify within its theoretical framework discrepant results from the literature previously considered inconsistent.

Hydraulic trade-offs and space filling enable better predictions of vascular structure and function in plants

PubMed Central

Savage, V. M.; Bentley, L. P.; Enquist, B. J.; Sperry, J. S.; Smith, D. D.; Reich, P. B.; von Allmen, E. I.

2010-01-01

Plant vascular networks are central to botanical form, function, and diversity. Here, we develop a theory for plant network scaling that is based on optimal space filling by the vascular system along with trade-offs between hydraulic safety and efficiency. Including these evolutionary drivers leads to predictions for sap flow, the taper of the radii of xylem conduits from trunk to terminal twig, and how the frequency of xylem conduits varies with conduit radius. To test our predictions, we use comprehensive empirical measurements of maple, oak, and pine trees and complementary literature data that we obtained for a wide range of tree species. This robust intra- and interspecific assessment of our botanical network model indicates that the central tendency of observed scaling properties supports our predictions much better than the West, Brown, and Enquist (WBE) or pipe models. Consequently, our model is a more accurate description of vascular architecture than what is given by existing network models and should be used as a baseline to understand and to predict the scaling of individual plants to whole forests. In addition, our model is flexible enough to allow the quantification of species variation around rules for network design. These results suggest that the evolutionary drivers that we propose have been fundamental in determining how physiological processes scale within and across plant species. PMID:21149696

Hydraulic trade-offs and space filling enable better predictions of vascular structure and function in plants.

PubMed

Savage, V M; Bentley, L P; Enquist, B J; Sperry, J S; Smith, D D; Reich, P B; von Allmen, E I

2010-12-28

Plant vascular networks are central to botanical form, function, and diversity. Here, we develop a theory for plant network scaling that is based on optimal space filling by the vascular system along with trade-offs between hydraulic safety and efficiency. Including these evolutionary drivers leads to predictions for sap flow, the taper of the radii of xylem conduits from trunk to terminal twig, and how the frequency of xylem conduits varies with conduit radius. To test our predictions, we use comprehensive empirical measurements of maple, oak, and pine trees and complementary literature data that we obtained for a wide range of tree species. This robust intra- and interspecific assessment of our botanical network model indicates that the central tendency of observed scaling properties supports our predictions much better than the West, Brown, and Enquist (WBE) or pipe models. Consequently, our model is a more accurate description of vascular architecture than what is given by existing network models and should be used as a baseline to understand and to predict the scaling of individual plants to whole forests. In addition, our model is flexible enough to allow the quantification of species variation around rules for network design. These results suggest that the evolutionary drivers that we propose have been fundamental in determining how physiological processes scale within and across plant species.

Evolutionary change in physiological phenotypes along the human lineage.

PubMed

Vining, Alexander Q; Nunn, Charles L

2016-01-01

Research in evolutionary medicine provides many examples of how evolution has shaped human susceptibility to disease. Traits undergoing rapid evolutionary change may result in associated costs or reduce the energy available to other traits. We hypothesize that humans have experienced more such changes than other primates as a result of major evolutionary change along the human lineage. We investigated 41 physiological traits across 50 primate species to identify traits that have undergone marked evolutionary change along the human lineage. We analysed the data using two Bayesian phylogenetic comparative methods. One approach models trait covariation in non-human primates and predicts human phenotypes to identify whether humans are evolutionary outliers. The other approach models adaptive shifts under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution to assess whether inferred shifts are more common on the human branch than on other primate lineages. We identified four traits with strong evidence for an evolutionary increase on the human lineage (amylase, haematocrit, phosphorus and monocytes) and one trait with strong evidence for decrease (neutrophilic bands). Humans exhibited more cases of distinct evolutionary change than other primates. Human physiology has undergone increased evolutionary change compared to other primates. Long distance running may have contributed to increases in haematocrit and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, while dietary changes are likely related to increases in amylase. In accordance with the pathogen load hypothesis, human monocyte levels were increased, but many other immune-related measures were not. Determining the mechanisms underlying conspicuous evolutionary change in these traits may provide new insights into human disease. The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Many-to-one form-to-function mapping weakens parallel morphological evolution.

PubMed

Thompson, Cole J; Ahmed, Newaz I; Veen, Thor; Peichel, Catherine L; Hendry, Andrew P; Bolnick, Daniel I; Stuart, Yoel E

2017-11-01

Evolutionary ecologists aim to explain and predict evolutionary change under different selective regimes. Theory suggests that such evolutionary prediction should be more difficult for biomechanical systems in which different trait combinations generate the same functional output: "many-to-one mapping." Many-to-one mapping of phenotype to function enables multiple morphological solutions to meet the same adaptive challenges. Therefore, many-to-one mapping should undermine parallel morphological evolution, and hence evolutionary predictability, even when selection pressures are shared among populations. Studying 16 replicate pairs of lake- and stream-adapted threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), we quantified three parts of the teleost feeding apparatus and used biomechanical models to calculate their expected functional outputs. The three feeding structures differed in their form-to-function relationship from one-to-one (lower jaw lever ratio) to increasingly many-to-one (buccal suction index, opercular 4-bar linkage). We tested for (1) weaker linear correlations between phenotype and calculated function, and (2) less parallel evolution across lake-stream pairs, in the many-to-one systems relative to the one-to-one system. We confirm both predictions, thus supporting the theoretical expectation that increasing many-to-one mapping undermines parallel evolution. Therefore, sole consideration of morphological variation within and among populations might not serve as a proxy for functional variation when multiple adaptive trait combinations exist. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Pharmacokinetics and Drug Interactions Determine Optimum Combination Strategies in Computational Models of Cancer Evolution.

PubMed

Chakrabarti, Shaon; Michor, Franziska

2017-07-15

The identification of optimal drug administration schedules to battle the emergence of resistance is a major challenge in cancer research. The existence of a multitude of resistance mechanisms necessitates administering drugs in combination, significantly complicating the endeavor of predicting the evolutionary dynamics of cancers and optimal intervention strategies. A thorough understanding of the important determinants of cancer evolution under combination therapies is therefore crucial for correctly predicting treatment outcomes. Here we developed the first computational strategy to explore pharmacokinetic and drug interaction effects in evolutionary models of cancer progression, a crucial step towards making clinically relevant predictions. We found that incorporating these phenomena into our multiscale stochastic modeling framework significantly changes the optimum drug administration schedules identified, often predicting nonintuitive strategies for combination therapies. We applied our approach to an ongoing phase Ib clinical trial (TATTON) administering AZD9291 and selumetinib to EGFR-mutant lung cancer patients. Our results suggest that the schedules used in the three trial arms have almost identical efficacies, but slight modifications in the dosing frequencies of the two drugs can significantly increase tumor cell eradication. Interestingly, we also predict that drug concentrations lower than the MTD are as efficacious, suggesting that lowering the total amount of drug administered could lower toxicities while not compromising on the effectiveness of the drugs. Our approach highlights the fact that quantitative knowledge of pharmacokinetic, drug interaction, and evolutionary processes is essential for identifying best intervention strategies. Our method is applicable to diverse cancer and treatment types and allows for a rational design of clinical trials. Cancer Res; 77(14); 3908-21. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

SLiM 2: Flexible, Interactive Forward Genetic Simulations.

PubMed

Haller, Benjamin C; Messer, Philipp W

2017-01-01

Modern population genomic datasets hold immense promise for revealing the evolutionary processes operating in natural populations, but a crucial prerequisite for this goal is the ability to model realistic evolutionary scenarios and predict their expected patterns in genomic data. To that end, we present SLiM 2: an evolutionary simulation framework that combines a powerful, fast engine for forward population genetic simulations with the capability of modeling a wide variety of complex evolutionary scenarios. SLiM achieves this flexibility through scriptability, which provides control over most aspects of the simulated evolutionary scenarios with a simple R-like scripting language called Eidos. An example SLiM simulation is presented to illustrate the power of this approach. SLiM 2 also includes a graphical user interface for simulation construction, interactive runtime control, and dynamic visualization of simulation output, facilitating easy and fast model development with quick prototyping and visual debugging. We conclude with a performance comparison between SLiM and two other popular forward genetic simulation packages. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Determining Selection across Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Perturbation-Based Method and Its Application to Modeling Evolution in Space.

PubMed

Wickman, Jonas; Diehl, Sebastian; Blasius, Bernd; Klausmeier, Christopher A; Ryabov, Alexey B; Brännström, Åke

2017-04-01

Spatial structure can decisively influence the way evolutionary processes unfold. To date, several methods have been used to study evolution in spatial systems, including population genetics, quantitative genetics, moment-closure approximations, and individual-based models. Here we extend the study of spatial evolutionary dynamics to eco-evolutionary models based on reaction-diffusion equations and adaptive dynamics. Specifically, we derive expressions for the strength of directional and stabilizing/disruptive selection that apply both in continuous space and to metacommunities with symmetrical dispersal between patches. For directional selection on a quantitative trait, this yields a way to integrate local directional selection across space and determine whether the trait value will increase or decrease. The robustness of this prediction is validated against quantitative genetics. For stabilizing/disruptive selection, we show that spatial heterogeneity always contributes to disruptive selection and hence always promotes evolutionary branching. The expression for directional selection is numerically very efficient and hence lends itself to simulation studies of evolutionary community assembly. We illustrate the application and utility of the expressions for this purpose with two examples of the evolution of resource utilization. Finally, we outline the domain of applicability of reaction-diffusion equations as a modeling framework and discuss their limitations.

An improved approximate-Bayesian model-choice method for estimating shared evolutionary history

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa from multi-locus DNA sequence data. The model is an extension of that implemented in msBayes. Results By reparameterizing the model, introducing more flexible priors on demographic and divergence-time parameters, and implementing a non-parametric Dirichlet-process prior over divergence models, I improved the robustness, accuracy, and power of the method for estimating shared evolutionary history across taxa. Conclusions The results demonstrate the improved performance of the new method is due to (1) more appropriate priors on divergence-time and demographic parameters that avoid prohibitively small marginal likelihoods for models with more divergence events, and (2) the Dirichlet-process providing a flexible prior on divergence histories that does not strongly disfavor models with intermediate numbers of divergence events. The new method yields more robust estimates of posterior uncertainty, and thus greatly reduces the tendency to incorrectly estimate models of shared evolutionary history with strong support. PMID:24992937

All-atom 3D structure prediction of transmembrane β-barrel proteins from sequences.

PubMed

Hayat, Sikander; Sander, Chris; Marks, Debora S; Elofsson, Arne

2015-04-28

Transmembrane β-barrels (TMBs) carry out major functions in substrate transport and protein biogenesis but experimental determination of their 3D structure is challenging. Encouraged by successful de novo 3D structure prediction of globular and α-helical membrane proteins from sequence alignments alone, we developed an approach to predict the 3D structure of TMBs. The approach combines the maximum-entropy evolutionary coupling method for predicting residue contacts (EVfold) with a machine-learning approach (boctopus2) for predicting β-strands in the barrel. In a blinded test for 19 TMB proteins of known structure that have a sufficient number of diverse homologous sequences available, this combined method (EVfold_bb) predicts hydrogen-bonded residue pairs between adjacent β-strands at an accuracy of ∼70%. This accuracy is sufficient for the generation of all-atom 3D models. In the transmembrane barrel region, the average 3D structure accuracy [template-modeling (TM) score] of top-ranked models is 0.54 (ranging from 0.36 to 0.85), with a higher (44%) number of residue pairs in correct strand-strand registration than in earlier methods (18%). Although the nonbarrel regions are predicted less accurately overall, the evolutionary couplings identify some highly constrained loop residues and, for FecA protein, the barrel including the structure of a plug domain can be accurately modeled (TM score = 0.68). Lower prediction accuracy tends to be associated with insufficient sequence information and we therefore expect increasing numbers of β-barrel families to become accessible to accurate 3D structure prediction as the number of available sequences increases.

Enhanced production of medicinal polysaccharide by submerged fermentation of Lingzhi or Reishi medicinal mushroom Ganoderma lucidium (W.Curt.:Fr.) P. Karst. Using statistical and evolutionary optimization methods.

PubMed

Baskar, Gurunathan; Sathya, Shree Rajesh K

2011-01-01

Statistical and evolutionary optimization of media composition was employed for the production of medicinal exopolysaccharide (EPS) by Lingzhi or Reishi medicinal mushroom Ganoderma lucidium MTCC 1039 using soya bean meal flour as low-cost substrate. Soya bean meal flour, ammonium chloride, glucose, and pH were identified as the most important variables for EPS yield using the two-level Plackett-Burman design and further optimized using the central composite design (CCD) and the artificial neural network (ANN)-linked genetic algorithm (GA). The high value of coefficient of determination of ANN (R² = 0.982) indicates that the ANN model was more accurate than the second-order polynomial model of CCD (R² = 0.91) for representing the effect of media composition on EPS yield. The predicted optimum media composition using ANN-linked GA was soybean meal flour 2.98%, glucose 3.26%, ammonium chloride 0.25%, and initial pH 7.5 for the maximum predicted EPS yield of 1005.55 mg/L. The experimental EPS yield obtained using the predicted optimum media composition was 1012.36 mg/L, which validates the high degree of accuracy of evolutionary optimization for enhanced production of EPS by submerged fermentation of G. lucidium.

EL_PSSM-RT: DNA-binding residue prediction by integrating ensemble learning with PSSM Relation Transformation.

PubMed

Zhou, Jiyun; Lu, Qin; Xu, Ruifeng; He, Yulan; Wang, Hongpeng

2017-08-29

Prediction of DNA-binding residue is important for understanding the protein-DNA recognition mechanism. Many computational methods have been proposed for the prediction, but most of them do not consider the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. In this paper, we first propose a novel residue encoding method, referred to as the Position Specific Score Matrix (PSSM) Relation Transformation (PSSM-RT), to encode residues by utilizing the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 are used to evaluate PSSM-RT and two existing PSSM encoding methods by five-fold cross-validation. Performance evaluations indicate that PSSM-RT is more effective than previous methods. This validates the point that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction. An ensemble learning classifier (EL_PSSM-RT) is also proposed by combining ensemble learning model and PSSM-RT to better handle the imbalance between binding and non-binding residues in datasets. EL_PSSM-RT is evaluated by five-fold cross-validation using PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 as well as two independent datasets TS-72 and TS-61. Performance comparisons with existing predictors on the four datasets demonstrate that EL_PSSM-RT is the best-performing method among all the predicting methods with improvement between 0.02-0.07 for MCC, 4.18-21.47% for ST and 0.013-0.131 for AUC. Furthermore, we analyze the importance of the pair-relationships extracted by PSSM-RT and the results validates the usefulness of PSSM-RT for encoding DNA-binding residues. We propose a novel prediction method for the prediction of DNA-binding residue with the inclusion of relationship of evolutionary information and ensemble learning. Performance evaluation shows that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction and ensemble learning can be used to address the data imbalance issue between binding and non-binding residues. A web service of EL_PSSM-RT ( http://hlt.hitsz.edu.cn:8080/PSSM-RT_SVM/ ) is provided for free access to the biological research community.

The relationship between familial resemblance and sexual attraction: an update on Westermarck, Freud, and the incest taboo.

PubMed

Lieberman, Debra; Fessler, Daniel M T; Smith, Adam

2011-09-01

Foundational principles of evolutionary theory predict that inbreeding avoidance mechanisms should exist in all species--including humans--in which close genetic relatives interact during periods of sexual maturity. Voluminous empirical evidence, derived from diverse taxa, supports this prediction. Despite such results, Fraley and Marks claim to provide evidence that humans are sexually attracted to close genetic relatives and that such attraction is held in check by cultural taboos. Here, the authors show that Fraley and Marks, in their search for an alternate explanation of inbreeding avoidance, misapply theoretical constructs from evolutionary biology and social psychology, leading to an incorrect interpretation of their results. The authors propose that Fraley and Marks's central findings can be explained in ways consistent with existing evolutionary models of inbreeding avoidance. The authors conclude that appropriate application of relevant theory and stringent experimental design can generate fruitful investigations into sexual attraction, inbreeding avoidance, and incest taboos.

Preventive evolutionary medicine of cancers.

PubMed

Hochberg, Michael E; Thomas, Frédéric; Assenat, Eric; Hibner, Urszula

2013-01-01

Evolutionary theory predicts that once an individual reaches an age of sufficiently low Darwinian fitness, (s)he will have reduced chances of keeping cancerous lesions in check. While we clearly need to better understand the emergence of precursor states and early malignancies as well as their mitigation by the microenvironment and tissue architecture, we argue that lifestyle changes and preventive therapies based in an evolutionary framework, applied to identified high-risk populations before incipient neoplasms become clinically detectable and chemoresistant lineages emerge, are currently the most reliable way to control or eliminate early tumours. Specifically, the relatively low levels of (epi)genetic heterogeneity characteristic of many if not most incipient lesions will mean a relatively limited set of possible adaptive traits and associated costs compared to more advanced cancers, and thus a more complete and predictable understanding of treatment options and outcomes. We propose a conceptual model for preventive treatments and discuss the many associated challenges.

The locus of sexual selection: moving sexual selection studies into the post-genomics era.

PubMed

Wilkinson, G S; Breden, F; Mank, J E; Ritchie, M G; Higginson, A D; Radwan, J; Jaquiery, J; Salzburger, W; Arriero, E; Barribeau, S M; Phillips, P C; Renn, S C P; Rowe, L

2015-04-01

Sexual selection drives fundamental evolutionary processes such as trait elaboration and speciation. Despite this importance, there are surprisingly few examples of genes unequivocally responsible for variation in sexually selected phenotypes. This lack of information inhibits our ability to predict phenotypic change due to universal behaviours, such as fighting over mates and mate choice. Here, we discuss reasons for this apparent gap and provide recommendations for how it can be overcome by adopting contemporary genomic methods, exploiting underutilized taxa that may be ideal for detecting the effects of sexual selection and adopting appropriate experimental paradigms. Identifying genes that determine variation in sexually selected traits has the potential to improve theoretical models and reveal whether the genetic changes underlying phenotypic novelty utilize common or unique molecular mechanisms. Such a genomic approach to sexual selection will help answer questions in the evolution of sexually selected phenotypes that were first asked by Darwin and can furthermore serve as a model for the application of genomics in all areas of evolutionary biology. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaldasch, Joachim

2011-07-01

An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction mechanism and the growth dynamics can be described by a replicator equation. The theory suggests that products play the role of species in biological evolutionary models. It implies that the evolution of man-made products can be arranged into an evolutionary tree. The model suggests that each product can be characterized by its product fitness. The fitness space contains elements of both sites of the market, supply and demand. The unit sales of products with a higher product fitness compared to the mean fitness increase. Durables with a constant fitness advantage replace other goods according to a logistic law. The model predicts in particular that the mean price exhibits an exponential decrease over a long time period for durable goods. The evolutionary diffusion process is directly related to this price decline and is governed by Gompertz equation. Therefore it is denoted as Gompertz diffusion. Describing the aggregate sales as the sum of first, multiple and replacement purchase the product life cycle can be derived. Replacement purchase causes periodic variations of the sales determined by the finite lifetime of the good (Juglar cycles). The model suggests that both, Bass- and Gompertz diffusion may contribute to the product life cycle of a consumer durable. The theory contains the standard equilibrium view of a market as a special case. It depends on the time scale, whether an equilibrium or evolutionary description is more appropriate. The evolutionary framework is used to derive also the size, growth rate and price distribution of manufacturing business units. It predicts that the size distribution of the business units (products) is lognormal, while the growth rates exhibit a Laplace distribution. Large price deviations from the mean price are also governed by a Laplace distribution (fat tails). These results are in agreement with empirical findings. The explicit comparison of the time evolution of consumer durables with empirical investigations confirms the close relationship between price decline and Gompertz diffusion, while the product life cycle can be described qualitatively for a long time period.

Connecting proximate mechanisms and evolutionary patterns: pituitary gland size and mammalian life history.

PubMed

Kamilar, J M; Tecot, S R

2015-11-01

At the proximate level, hormones are known to play a critical role in influencing the life history of mammals, including humans. The pituitary gland is directly responsible for producing several hormones, including those related to growth and reproduction. Although we have a basic understanding of how hormones affect life history characteristics, we still have little knowledge of this relationship in an evolutionary context. We used data from 129 mammal species representing 14 orders to investigate the relationship between pituitary gland size and life history variation. Because pituitary gland size should be related to hormone production and action, we predicted that species with relatively large pituitaries should be associated with fast life histories, especially increased foetal and post-natal growth rates. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that total pituitary size and the size of the anterior lobe of the pituitary significantly predicted a life history axis that was correlated with several traits including body mass, and foetal and post-natal growth rates. Additional models directly examining the association between relative pituitary size and growth rates produced concordant results. We also found that relative pituitary size variation across mammals was best explained by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution, suggesting an important role of stabilizing selection. Our results support the idea that the size of the pituitary is linked to life history variation through evolutionary time. This pattern is likely due to mediating hormone levels but additional work is needed. We suggest that future investigations incorporating endocrine gland size may be critical for understanding life history evolution. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

(PS)2: protein structure prediction server version 3.0.

PubMed

Huang, Tsun-Tsao; Hwang, Jenn-Kang; Chen, Chu-Huang; Chu, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Chi-Wen; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2015-07-01

Protein complexes are involved in many biological processes. Examining coupling between subunits of a complex would be useful to understand the molecular basis of protein function. Here, our updated (PS)(2) web server predicts the three-dimensional structures of protein complexes based on comparative modeling; furthermore, this server examines the coupling between subunits of the predicted complex by combining structural and evolutionary considerations. The predicted complex structure could be indicated and visualized by Java-based 3D graphics viewers and the structural and evolutionary profiles are shown and compared chain-by-chain. For each subunit, considerations with or without the packing contribution of other subunits cause the differences in similarities between structural and evolutionary profiles, and these differences imply which form, complex or monomeric, is preferred in the biological condition for the subunit. We believe that the (PS)(2) server would be a useful tool for biologists who are interested not only in the structures of protein complexes but also in the coupling between subunits of the complexes. The (PS)(2) is freely available at http://ps2v3.life.nctu.edu.tw/. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Evolutionary robotics simulations help explain why reciprocity is rare in nature

PubMed Central

André, Jean-Baptiste; Nolfi, Stefano

2016-01-01

The relative rarity of reciprocity in nature, contrary to theoretical predictions that it should be widespread, is currently one of the major puzzles in social evolution theory. Here we use evolutionary robotics to solve this puzzle. We show that models based on game theory are misleading because they neglect the mechanics of behavior. In a series of experiments with simulated robots controlled by artificial neural networks, we find that reciprocity does not evolve, and show that this results from a general constraint that likely also prevents it from evolving in the wild. Reciprocity can evolve if it requires very few mutations, as is usually assumed in evolutionary game theoretic models, but not if, more realistically, it requires the accumulation of many adaptive mutations. PMID:27616139

Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

PubMed

Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

2016-12-01

Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary fuzzy modeling human diagnostic decisions.

PubMed

Peña-Reyes, Carlos Andrés

2004-05-01

Fuzzy CoCo is a methodology, combining fuzzy logic and evolutionary computation, for constructing systems able to accurately predict the outcome of a human decision-making process, while providing an understandable explanation of the underlying reasoning. Fuzzy logic provides a formal framework for constructing systems exhibiting both good numeric performance (accuracy) and linguistic representation (interpretability). However, fuzzy modeling--meaning the construction of fuzzy systems--is an arduous task, demanding the identification of many parameters. To solve it, we use evolutionary computation techniques (specifically cooperative coevolution), which are widely used to search for adequate solutions in complex spaces. We have successfully applied the algorithm to model the decision processes involved in two breast cancer diagnostic problems, the WBCD problem and the Catalonia mammography interpretation problem, obtaining systems both of high performance and high interpretability. For the Catalonia problem, an evolved system was embedded within a Web-based tool-called COBRA-for aiding radiologists in mammography interpretation.

Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, Delia Evelina; Barca, Emanuele; Goncalves, Rodrigo Mikosz; de Araujo Queiroz, Heithor Alexandre; Berardi, Luigi; Passarella, Giuseppe

2018-01-01

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a "slight" worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Evolutionary contributions to solving the "matrilineal puzzle": a test of Holden, Sear, and Mace's model.

PubMed

Mattison, Siobhán M

2011-07-01

Matriliny has long been debated by anthropologists positing either its primitive or its puzzling nature. More recently, evolutionary anthropologists have attempted to recast matriliny as an adaptive solution to modern social and ecological environments, tying together much of what was known to be associated with matriliny. This paper briefly reviews the major anthropological currents in studies of matriliny and discusses the contribution of evolutionary anthropology to this body of literature. It discusses the utility of an evolutionary framework in the context of the first independent test of Holden et al.'s 2003 model of matriliny as daughter-biased investment. It finds that historical daughter-biased transmission of land among the Mosuo is consistent with the model, whereas current income transmission is not. In both cases, resources had equivalent impacts on male and female reproduction, a result which predicts daughter-biased resource transmission given any nonzero level of paternity uncertainty. However, whereas land was transmitted traditionally to daughters, income today is invested in both sexes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.

Evolution of proliferation and the angiogenic switch in tumors with high clonal diversity.

PubMed

Bickel, Scott T; Juliano, Joseph D; Nagy, John D

2014-01-01

Natural selection among tumor cell clones is thought to produce hallmark properties of malignancy. Efforts to understand evolution of one such hallmark--the angiogenic switch--has suggested that selection for angiogenesis can "run away" and generate a hypertumor, a form of evolutionary suicide by extreme vascular hypo- or hyperplasia. This phenomenon is predicted by models of tumor angiogenesis studied with the techniques of adaptive dynamics. These techniques also predict that selection drives tumor proliferative potential towards an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) that is also convergence-stable. However, adaptive dynamics are predicated on two key assumptions: (i) no more than two distinct clones or evolutionary strategies can exist in the tumor at any given time; and (ii) mutations cause small phenotypic changes. Here we show, using a stochastic simulation, that relaxation of these assumptions has no effect on the predictions of adaptive dynamics in this case. In particular, selection drives proliferative potential towards, and angiogenic potential away from, their respective ESSs. However, these simulations also show that tumor behavior is highly contingent on mutational history, particularly for angiogenesis. Individual tumors frequently grow to lethal size before the evolutionary endpoint is approached. In fact, most tumor dynamics are predicted to be in the evolutionarily transient regime throughout their natural history, so that clinically, the ESS is often largely irrelevant. In addition, we show that clonal diversity as measured by the Shannon Information Index correlates with the speed of approach to the evolutionary endpoint. This observation dovetails with results showing that clonal diversity in Barrett's esophagus predicts progression to malignancy.

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2015-03-07

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

SEISMIC DIAGNOSTICS OF RED GIANTS: FIRST COMPARISON WITH STELLAR MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montalban, J.; Miglio, A.; Noels, A.

2010-10-01

The clear detection with CoRoT and KEPLER of radial and non-radial solar-like oscillations in many red giants paves the way for seismic inferences on the structure of such stars. We present an overview of the properties of the adiabatic frequencies and frequency separations of radial and non-radial oscillation modes for an extended grid of models. We highlight how their detection allows a deeper insight into the internal structure and evolutionary state of red giants. In particular, we find that the properties of dipole modes constitute a promising seismic diagnostic tool of the evolutionary state of red giant stars. We comparemore » our theoretical predictions with the first 34 days of KEPLER data and predict the frequency diagram expected for red giants in the CoRoT exofield in the galactic center direction.« less

Three-Dimensional Molecular Modeling of a Diverse Range of SC Clan Serine Proteases

PubMed Central

Laskar, Aparna; Chatterjee, Aniruddha; Chatterjee, Somnath; Rodger, Euan J.

2012-01-01

Serine proteases are involved in a variety of biological processes and are classified into clans sharing structural homology. Although various three-dimensional structures of SC clan proteases have been experimentally determined, they are mostly bacterial and animal proteases, with some from archaea, plants, and fungi, and as yet no structures have been determined for protozoa. To bridge this gap, we have used molecular modeling techniques to investigate the structural properties of different SC clan serine proteases from a diverse range of taxa. Either SWISS-MODEL was used for homology-based structure prediction or the LOOPP server was used for threading-based structure prediction. The predicted models were refined using Insight II and SCRWL and validated against experimental structures. Investigation of secondary structures and electrostatic surface potential was performed using MOLMOL. The structural geometry of the catalytic core shows clear deviations between taxa, but the relative positions of the catalytic triad residues were conserved. Evolutionary divergence was also exhibited by large variation in secondary structure features outside the core, differences in overall amino acid distribution, and unique surface electrostatic potential patterns between species. Encompassing a wide range of taxa, our structural analysis provides an evolutionary perspective on SC clan serine proteases. PMID:23213528

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasselman, Timothy K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

1991-01-01

Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation

Treesearch

Estella Gilbert; James A. Powell; Jesse A. Logan; Barbara J. Bentz

2004-01-01

In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and...

A gene network model accounting for development and evolution of mammalian teeth

PubMed Central

Salazar-Ciudad, Isaac; Jernvall, Jukka

2002-01-01

Generation of morphological diversity remains a challenge for evolutionary biologists because it is unclear how an ultimately finite number of genes involved in initial pattern formation integrates with morphogenesis. Ideally, models used to search for the simplest developmental principles on how genes produce form should account for both developmental process and evolutionary change. Here we present a model reproducing the morphology of mammalian teeth by integrating experimental data on gene interactions and growth into a morphodynamic mechanism in which developing morphology has a causal role in patterning. The model predicts the course of tooth-shape development in different mammalian species and also reproduces key transitions in evolution. Furthermore, we reproduce the known expression patterns of several genes involved in tooth development and their dynamics over developmental time. Large morphological effects frequently can be achieved by small changes, according to this model, and similar morphologies can be produced by different changes. This finding may be consistent with why predicting the morphological outcomes of molecular experiments is challenging. Nevertheless, models incorporating morphology and gene activity show promise for linking genotypes to phenotypes. PMID:12048258

Upon accounting for the impact of isoenzyme loss, gene deletion costs anticorrelate with their evolutionary rates

DOE PAGES

Jacobs, Christopher; Lambourne, Luke; Xia, Yu; ...

2017-01-20

Here, system-level metabolic network models enable the computation of growth and metabolic phenotypes from an organism's genome. In particular, flux balance approaches have been used to estimate the contribution of individual metabolic genes to organismal fitness, offering the opportunity to test whether such contributions carry information about the evolutionary pressure on the corresponding genes. Previous failure to identify the expected negative correlation between such computed gene-loss cost and sequence-derived evolutionary rates in Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been ascribed to a real biological gap between a gene's fitness contribution to an organism "here and now"º and the same gene's historical importance asmore » evidenced by its accumulated mutations over millions of years of evolution. Here we show that this negative correlation does exist, and can be exposed by revisiting a broadly employed assumption of flux balance models. In particular, we introduce a new metric that we call "function-loss cost", which estimates the cost of a gene loss event as the total potential functional impairment caused by that loss. This new metric displays significant negative correlation with evolutionary rate, across several thousand minimal environments. We demonstrate that the improvement gained using function-loss cost over gene-loss cost is explained by replacing the base assumption that isoenzymes provide unlimited capacity for backup with the assumption that isoenzymes are completely non-redundant. We further show that this change of the assumption regarding isoenzymes increases the recall of epistatic interactions predicted by the flux balance model at the cost of a reduction in the precision of the predictions. In addition to suggesting that the gene-to-reaction mapping in genome-scale flux balance models should be used with caution, our analysis provides new evidence that evolutionary gene importance captures much more than strict essentiality.« less

Upon accounting for the impact of isoenzyme loss, gene deletion costs anticorrelate with their evolutionary rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobs, Christopher; Lambourne, Luke; Xia, Yu

Here, system-level metabolic network models enable the computation of growth and metabolic phenotypes from an organism's genome. In particular, flux balance approaches have been used to estimate the contribution of individual metabolic genes to organismal fitness, offering the opportunity to test whether such contributions carry information about the evolutionary pressure on the corresponding genes. Previous failure to identify the expected negative correlation between such computed gene-loss cost and sequence-derived evolutionary rates in Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been ascribed to a real biological gap between a gene's fitness contribution to an organism "here and now"º and the same gene's historical importance asmore » evidenced by its accumulated mutations over millions of years of evolution. Here we show that this negative correlation does exist, and can be exposed by revisiting a broadly employed assumption of flux balance models. In particular, we introduce a new metric that we call "function-loss cost", which estimates the cost of a gene loss event as the total potential functional impairment caused by that loss. This new metric displays significant negative correlation with evolutionary rate, across several thousand minimal environments. We demonstrate that the improvement gained using function-loss cost over gene-loss cost is explained by replacing the base assumption that isoenzymes provide unlimited capacity for backup with the assumption that isoenzymes are completely non-redundant. We further show that this change of the assumption regarding isoenzymes increases the recall of epistatic interactions predicted by the flux balance model at the cost of a reduction in the precision of the predictions. In addition to suggesting that the gene-to-reaction mapping in genome-scale flux balance models should be used with caution, our analysis provides new evidence that evolutionary gene importance captures much more than strict essentiality.« less

The evolution of trade-offs: where are we?

PubMed

Roff, D A; Fairbairn, D J

2007-03-01

Trade-offs are a core component of many evolutionary models, particularly those dealing with the evolution of life histories. In the present paper, we identify four topics of key importance for studies of the evolutionary biology of trade-offs. First, we consider the underlying concept of 'constraint'. We conclude that this term is typically used too vaguely and suggest that 'constraint' in the sense of a bias should be clearly distinguished from 'constraint' in the sense of proscribed combinations of traits or evolutionary trajectories. Secondly, we address the utility of the acquisition-allocation model (the 'Y-model'). We find that, whereas this model and its derivatives have provided new insights, a misunderstanding of the pivotal equation has led to incorrect predictions and faulty tests. Thirdly, we ask how trade-offs are expected to evolve under directional selection. A quantitative genetic model predicts that, under weak or short-term selection, the intercept will change but the slope will remain constant. Two empirical tests support this prediction but these are based on comparisons of geographic populations: more direct tests will come from artificial selection experiments. Finally, we discuss what maintains variation in trade-offs noting that at present little attention has been given to this question. We distinguish between phenotypic and genetic variation and suggest that the latter is most in need of explanation. We suggest that four factors deserving investigation are mutation-selection balance, antagonistic pleiotropy, correlational selection and spatio-temporal variation, but as in the other areas of research on trade-offs, empirical generalizations are impeded by lack of data. Although this lack is discouraging, we suggest that it provides a rich ground for further study and the integration of many disciplines, including the emerging field of genomics.

Probing the low-stellar-mass domain with Kepler and APOGEE observations of eclipsing binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prsa, Andrej; Hambleton, Kelly

2018-01-01

Observations of low-mass stars (M < 0.5 Msun) have been shown to systematically disagree with the predictions of stellar evolutionary models, where observed radii can be inflated by as much as 5-15% as compared to model predictions. One of the proposed explanations for this discrepancy that is gaining traction are stellar magnetic fields impeding the onset of convection and the subsequent bloating of the star. Here we present modeling analysis results of two benchmark eclipsing binaries, KIC 3003991 and KIC 2445134, with low mass companions (M ~ 0.2 MSun and M ~ 0.5 MSun, respectively). The models are based on Kepler photometry and APOGEE spectroscopy. APOGEE is a part of the Sloan spectroscopic survey that observes in the near-infrared, providing greater sensitivity towards fainter, red companions. We combine the binary modeling software PHOEBE with emcee, an affine invariant Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler; celerite, a Gaussian process library; and our own codes to create a modeling suite capable of modeling correlated noise, shot noise, nuisance astrophysical signals (such as spots) and the full set of eclipsing binary parameters. The results are obtained within a probabilistic framework, with robust mass and radius uncertainties ~1-4%. We overplot the derived masses, radii and temperatures over evolutionary models and note stellar size bloating w.r.t. model predictions for both systems. This work has been funded by the NSF grant #1517460.

Incorporating evolution of transcription factor binding sites into annotated alignments.

PubMed

Bais, Abha S; Grossmann, Stefen; Vingron, Martin

2007-08-01

Identifying transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) is essential to elucidate putative regulatory mechanisms. A common strategy is to combine cross-species conservation with single sequence TFBS annotation to yield "conserved TFBSs". Most current methods in this field adopt a multi-step approach that segregates the two aspects. Again, it is widely accepted that the evolutionary dynamics of binding sites differ from those of the surrounding sequence. Hence, it is desirable to have an approach that explicitly takes this factor into account. Although a plethora of approaches have been proposed for the prediction of conserved TFBSs, very few explicitly model TFBS evolutionary properties, while additionally being multi-step. Recently, we introduced a novel approach to simultaneously align and annotate conserved TFBSs in a pair of sequences. Building upon the standard Smith-Waterman algorithm for local alignments, SimAnn introduces additional states for profiles to output extended alignments or annotated alignments. That is, alignments with parts annotated as gaplessly aligned TFBSs (pair-profile hits)are generated. Moreover,the pair- profile related parameters are derived in a sound statistical framework. In this article, we extend this approach to explicitly incorporate evolution of binding sites in the SimAnn framework. We demonstrate the extension in the theoretical derivations through two position-specific evolutionary models, previously used for modelling TFBS evolution. In a simulated setting, we provide a proof of concept that the approach works given the underlying assumptions,as compared to the original work. Finally, using a real dataset of experimentally verified binding sites in human-mouse sequence pairs,we compare the new approach (eSimAnn) to an existing multi-step tool that also considers TFBS evolution. Although it is widely accepted that binding sites evolve differently from the surrounding sequences, most comparative TFBS identification methods do not explicitly consider this.Additionally, prediction of conserved binding sites is carried out in a multi-step approach that segregates alignment from TFBS annotation. In this paper, we demonstrate how the simultaneous alignment and annotation approach of SimAnn can be further extended to incorporate TFBS evolutionary relationships. We study how alignments and binding site predictions interplay at varying evolutionary distances and for various profile qualities.

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics

PubMed Central

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein

2015-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco-evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population-level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco-evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long-term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco-evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics. PMID:25807980

Selective sweeps in growing microbial colonies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korolev, Kirill S.; Müller, Melanie J. I.; Karahan, Nilay; Murray, Andrew W.; Hallatschek, Oskar; Nelson, David R.

2012-04-01

Evolutionary experiments with microbes are a powerful tool to study mutations and natural selection. These experiments, however, are often limited to the well-mixed environments of a test tube or a chemostat. Since spatial organization can significantly affect evolutionary dynamics, the need is growing for evolutionary experiments in spatially structured environments. The surface of a Petri dish provides such an environment, but a more detailed understanding of microbial growth on Petri dishes is necessary to interpret such experiments. We formulate a simple deterministic reaction-diffusion model, which successfully predicts the spatial patterns created by two competing species during colony expansion. We also derive the shape of these patterns analytically without relying on microscopic details of the model. In particular, we find that the relative fitness of two microbial strains can be estimated from the logarithmic spirals created by selective sweeps. The theory is tested with strains of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae for spatial competitions with different initial conditions and for a range of relative fitnesses. The reaction-diffusion model also connects the microscopic parameters like growth rates and diffusion constants with macroscopic spatial patterns and predicts the relationship between fitness in liquid cultures and on Petri dishes, which we confirmed experimentally. Spatial sector patterns therefore provide an alternative fitness assay to the commonly used liquid culture fitness assays.

STUDYING THE PHYSICAL DIVERSITY OF LATE-M DWARFS WITH DYNAMICAL MASSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dupuy, Trent J.; Liu, Michael C.; Bowler, Brendan P.

2010-10-01

We present a systematic study of the physical properties of late-M dwarfs based on high-quality dynamical mass measurements and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. We use astrometry from Keck natural and laser guide star adaptive optics imaging to determine orbits for the late-M binaries LP 349 - 25AB (M7.5+M8), LHS 1901AB (M6.5+M6.5), and Gl 569Bab (M8.5+M9). We find that LP 349 - 25AB (M{sub tot} = 0.120{sup +0.008}{sub -0.007} M{sub sun}) is a pair of young brown dwarfs for which Lyon and Tucson evolutionary models jointly predict an age of 140 {+-} 30 Myr, consistent with the age of the Pleiades. However,more » at least the primary component seems to defy the empirical Pleiades lithium depletion boundary, implying that the system is in fact older (if the parallax is correct) and that evolutionary models under-predict the component luminosities for this magnetically active binary. We find that LHS 1901AB is a pair of very low-mass stars (M{sub tot} = 0.194{sup +0.025}{sub -0.021} M{sub sun}) with evolutionary model-derived ages consistent with the old age (>6 Gyr) implied by its lack of activity. Our improved orbit for Gl 569Bab results in a higher mass for this binary (M{sub tot} = 0.140{sup +0.009}{sub -0.008} M{sub sun}) compared to previous work (0.125 {+-} 0.007 M{sub sun}). We use these mass measurements along with our published results for 2MASS J2206 - 2047AB (M8+M8) to test four sets of ultracool model atmospheres currently in use. Fitting these models to our NIR integrated-light spectra provides temperature estimates warmer by {approx}250 K than those derived independently from Dusty evolutionary models given the measured masses and luminosities. We propose that model atmospheres are more likely to be the source of this discrepancy, as it would be difficult to explain a uniform temperature offset over such a wide range of masses, ages, and activity levels in the context of evolutionary models. This contrasts with the conclusion of Konopacky et al. that model-predicted masses (given input T{sub eff} and L{sub bol}) are at fault for differences between theory and observations. In addition, we find an opposite (and smaller) mass discrepancy from what they report when we adopt their model-testing approach: masses are too high rather than too low because our T{sub eff} estimates derived from fitting NIR spectra are {approx}650 K higher than their values from fitting broadband photometry alone.« less

Maintenance of polygenic sex determination in a fluctuating environment: an individual-based model.

PubMed

Bateman, A W; Anholt, B R

2017-05-01

R. A. Fisher predicted that individuals should invest equally in offspring of both sexes, and that the proportion of males and females produced (the primary sex ratio) should evolve towards 1:1 when unconstrained. For many species, sex determination is dependent on sex chromosomes, creating a strong tendency for balanced sex ratios, but in other cases, multiple autosomal genes interact to determine sex. In such cases, the maintenance of multiple sex-determining alleles at multiple loci and the consequent among-family variability in sex ratios presents a puzzle, as theory predicts that such systems should be unstable. Theory also predicts that environmental influences on sex can complicate outcomes of genetic sex determination, and that population structure may play a role. Tigriopus californicus, a copepod that lives in splash-pool metapopulations and exhibits polygenic and environment-dependent sex determination, presents a test case for relevant theory. We use this species as a model for parameterizing an individual-based simulation to investigate conditions that could maintain polygenic sex determination. We find that metapopulation structure can delay the degradation of polygenic sex determination and that periods of alternating frequency-dependent selection, imposed by seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions, can maintain polygenic sex determination indefinitely. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Modeling an aquatic ecosystem: application of an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping to reduce prediction uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, Michael; Buscema, Massimo

2016-04-01

Aquatic ecosystem models can potentially be used to understand the influence of stresses on catchment resource quality. Given that catchment responses are functions of natural and anthropogenic stresses reflected in sparse and spatiotemporal biological, physical, and chemical measurements, an ecosystem is difficult to model using statistical or numerical methods. We propose an artificial adaptive systems approach to model ecosystems. First, an unsupervised machine-learning (ML) network is trained using the set of available sparse and disparate data variables. Second, an evolutionary algorithm with genetic doping is applied to reduce the number of ecosystem variables to an optimal set. Third, the optimal set of ecosystem variables is used to retrain the ML network. Fourth, a stochastic cross-validation approach is applied to quantify and compare the nonlinear uncertainty in selected predictions of the original and reduced models. Results are presented for aquatic ecosystems (tens of thousands of square kilometers) undergoing landscape change in the USA: Upper Illinois River Basin and Central Colorado Assessment Project Area, and Southland region, NZ.

Rapid evolution accelerates plant population spread in fragmented experimental landscapes.

PubMed

Williams, Jennifer L; Kendall, Bruce E; Levine, Jonathan M

2016-07-29

Predicting the speed of biological invasions and native species migrations requires an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spreading populations. Theory predicts that evolution can accelerate species' spread velocity, but how landscape patchiness--an important control over traits under selection--influences this process is unknown. We manipulated the response to selection in populations of a model plant species spreading through replicated experimental landscapes of varying patchiness. After six generations of change, evolving populations spread 11% farther than nonevolving populations in continuously favorable landscapes and 200% farther in the most fragmented landscapes. The greater effect of evolution on spread in patchier landscapes was consistent with the evolution of dispersal and competitive ability. Accounting for evolutionary change may be critical when predicting the velocity of range expansions. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Optimization of Artificial Neural Network using Evolutionary Programming for Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Hidden Failure Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, N. H.; Salim, N. A.; Othman, M. M.; Yasin, Z. M.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the Evolutionary Programming (EP) which proposed to optimize the training parameters for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of protection system hidden failure. The data has been collected from the probability of hidden failure model simulation from the historical data. The training parameters of multilayer-feedforward with backpropagation has been optimized with objective function to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE). The optimal training parameters consists of the momentum rate, learning rate and number of neurons in first hidden layer and second hidden layer is selected in EP-ANN. The IEEE 14 bus system has been tested as a case study to validate the propose technique. The results show the reliable prediction of performance validated through MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R).

Genetic drift and selection in many-allele range expansions.

PubMed

Weinstein, Bryan T; Lavrentovich, Maxim O; Möbius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W; Nelson, David R

2017-12-01

We experimentally and numerically investigate the evolutionary dynamics of four competing strains of E. coli with differing expansion velocities in radially expanding colonies. We compare experimental measurements of the average fraction, correlation functions between strains, and the relative rates of genetic domain wall annihilations and coalescences to simulations modeling the population as a one-dimensional ring of annihilating and coalescing random walkers with deterministic biases due to selection. The simulations reveal that the evolutionary dynamics can be collapsed onto master curves governed by three essential parameters: (1) an expansion length beyond which selection dominates over genetic drift; (2) a characteristic angular correlation describing the size of genetic domains; and (3) a dimensionless constant quantifying the interplay between a colony's curvature at the frontier and its selection length scale. We measure these parameters with a new technique that precisely measures small selective differences between spatially competing strains and show that our simulations accurately predict the dynamics without additional fitting. Our results suggest that the random walk model can act as a useful predictive tool for describing the evolutionary dynamics of range expansions composed of an arbitrary number of genotypes with different fitnesses.

Forecasting Caspian Sea level changes using satellite altimetry data (June 1992-December 2013) based on evolutionary support vector regression algorithms and gene expression programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Moslem; You, Rey-Jer; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2014-10-01

Sea level forecasting at various time intervals is of great importance in water supply management. Evolutionary artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been accepted as an appropriate tool for modeling complex nonlinear phenomena in water bodies. In the study, we investigated the ability of two AI techniques: support vector machine (SVM), which is mathematically well-founded and provides new insights into function approximation, and gene expression programming (GEP), which is used to forecast Caspian Sea level anomalies using satellite altimetry observations from June 1992 to December 2013. SVM demonstrates the best performance in predicting Caspian Sea level anomalies, given the minimum root mean square error (RMSE = 0.035) and maximum coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) during the prediction periods. A comparison between the proposed AI approaches and the cascade correlation neural network (CCNN) model also shows the superiority of the GEP and SVM models over the CCNN.

A genomic perspective on the generation and maintenance of genetic diversity in herbivorous insects

PubMed Central

Gloss, Andrew D.; Groen, Simon C.; Whiteman, Noah K.

2017-01-01

Understanding the processes that generate and maintain genetic variation within populations is a central goal in evolutionary biology. Theory predicts that some of this variation is maintained as a consequence of adapting to variable habitats. Studies in herbivorous insects have played a key role in confirming this prediction. Here, we highlight theoretical and conceptual models for the maintenance of genetic diversity in herbivorous insects, empirical genomic studies testing these models, and pressing questions within the realm of evolutionary and functional genomic studies. To address key gaps, we propose an integrative approach combining population genomic scans for adaptation, genome-wide characterization of targets of selection through experimental manipulations, mapping the genetic architecture of traits influencing fitness, and functional studies. We also stress the importance of studying the maintenance of genetic variation across biological scales—from variation within populations to divergence among populations—to form a comprehensive view of adaptation in herbivorous insects. PMID:28736510

An evolutionary firefly algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear biological model parameters.

PubMed

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N V

2013-01-01

The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test.

An Evolutionary Firefly Algorithm for the Estimation of Nonlinear Biological Model Parameters

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N. V.

2013-01-01

The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test. PMID:23469172

Beam-column joint shear prediction using hybridized deep learning neural network with genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mundher Yaseen, Zaher; Abdulmohsin Afan, Haitham; Tran, Minh-Tung

2018-04-01

Scientifically evidenced that beam-column joints are a critical point in the reinforced concrete (RC) structure under the fluctuation loads effects. In this novel hybrid data-intelligence model developed to predict the joint shear behavior of exterior beam-column structure frame. The hybrid data-intelligence model is called genetic algorithm integrated with deep learning neural network model (GA-DLNN). The genetic algorithm is used as prior modelling phase for the input approximation whereas the DLNN predictive model is used for the prediction phase. To demonstrate this structural problem, experimental data is collected from the literature that defined the dimensional and specimens’ properties. The attained findings evidenced the efficitveness of the hybrid GA-DLNN in modelling beam-column joint shear problem. In addition, the accurate prediction achived with less input variables owing to the feasibility of the evolutionary phase.

An experimental test of density-dependent selection on temperament traits of activity, boldness and sociability.

PubMed

Le Galliard, J-F; Paquet, M; Mugabo, M

2015-05-01

Temperament traits are seen in many animal species, and recent evolutionary models predict that they could be maintained by heterogeneous selection. We tested this prediction by examining density-dependent selection in juvenile common lizards Zootoca vivipara scored for activity, boldness and sociability at birth and at the age of 1 year. We measured three key life-history traits (juvenile survival, body growth rate and reproduction) and quantified selection in experimental populations at five density levels ranging from low to high values. We observed consistent individual differences for all behaviours on the short term, but only for activity and one boldness measure across the first year of life. At low density, growth selection favoured more sociable lizards, whereas viability selection favoured less active individuals. A significant negative correlational selection on activity and boldness existed for body growth rate irrespective of density. Thus, behavioural traits were characterized by limited ontogenic consistency, and natural selection was heterogeneous between density treatments and fitness traits. This confirms that density-dependent selection plays an important role in the maintenance of individual differences in exploration-activity and sociability. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Lessons from (co-)evolution in the docking of proteins and peptides for CAPRI Rounds 28-35.

PubMed

Yu, Jinchao; Andreani, Jessica; Ochsenbein, Françoise; Guerois, Raphaël

2017-03-01

Computational protein-protein docking is of great importance for understanding protein interactions at the structural level. Critical assessment of prediction of interactions (CAPRI) experiments provide the protein docking community with a unique opportunity to blindly test methods based on real-life cases and help accelerate methodology development. For CAPRI Rounds 28-35, we used an automatic docking pipeline integrating the coarse-grained co-evolution-based potential InterEvScore. This score was developed to exploit the information contained in the multiple sequence alignments of binding partners and selectively recognize co-evolved interfaces. Together with Zdock/Frodock for rigid-body docking, SOAP-PP for atomic potential and Rosetta applications for structural refinement, this pipeline reached high performance on a majority of targets. For protein-peptide docking and interfacial water position predictions, we also explored different means of taking evolutionary information into account. Overall, our group ranked 1 st by correctly predicting 10 targets, composed of 1 High, 7 Medium and 2 Acceptable predictions. Excellent and Outstanding levels of accuracy were reached for each of the two water prediction targets, respectively. Altogether, in 15 out of 18 targets in total, evolutionary information, either through co-evolution or conservation analyses, could provide key constraints to guide modeling towards the most likely assemblies. These results open promising perspectives regarding the way evolutionary information can be valuable to improve docking prediction accuracy. Proteins 2017; 85:378-390. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolutionary Game Theory Analysis of Tumor Progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Amy; Liao, David; Sturm, James; Austin, Robert

2014-03-01

Evolutionary game theory applied to two interacting cell populations can yield quantitative prediction of the future densities of the two cell populations based on the initial interaction terms. We will discuss how in a complex ecology that evolutionary game theory successfully predicts the future densities of strains of stromal and cancer cells (multiple myeloma), and discuss the possible clinical use of such analysis for predicting cancer progression. Supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Cancer Institute.

Evolutionary Maps: A new model for the analysis of conceptual development, with application to the diurnal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro, Manuel

2014-05-01

This paper presents a model of how children generate concrete concepts from perception through processes of differentiation and integration. The model informs the design of a novel methodology (evolutionary maps or emaps), whose implementation on certain domains unfolds the web of itineraries that children may follow in the construction of concrete conceptual knowledge and pinpoints, for each conception, the architecture of the conceptual change that leads to the scientific concept. Remarkably, the generative character of its syntax yields conceptions that, if unknown, amount to predictions that can be tested experimentally. Its application to the diurnal cycle (including the sun's trajectory in the sky) indicates that the model is correct and the methodology works (in some domains). Specifically, said emap predicts a number of exotic trajectories of the sun in the sky that, in the experimental work, were drawn spontaneously both on paper and a dome. Additionally, the application of the emaps theoretical framework in clinical interviews has provided new insight into other cognitive processes. The field of validity of the methodology and its possible applications to science education are discussed.

Deuterium and 15N fractionation in N2H+ during the formation of a Sun-like star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Simone, M.; Fontani, F.; Codella, C.; Ceccarelli, C.; Lefloch, B.; Bachiller, R.; López-Sepulcre, A.; Caux, E.; Vastel, C.; Soldateschi, J.

2018-05-01

Although chemical models predict that the deuterium fractionation in N2H+ is a good evolutionary tracer in the star formation process, the fractionation of nitrogen is still a poorly understood process. Recent models have questioned the similar evolutionary trend expected for the two fractionation mechanisms in N2H+, based on a classical scenario in which ion-neutral reactions occurring in cold gas should have caused an enhancement of the abundance of N2D+, 15NNH+, and N15NH+. In the framework of the ASAI IRAM-30m large program, we have investigated the fractionation of deuterium and 15N in N2H+ in the best known representatives of the different evolutionary stages of the Sun-like star formation process. The goal is to ultimately confirm (or deny) the classical `ion-neutral reactions' scenario that predicts a similar trend for D and 15N fractionation. We do not find any evolutionary trend of the 14N/15N ratio from both the 15NNH+ and N15NH+ isotopologues. Therefore, our findings confirm that, during the formation of a Sun-like star, the core evolution is irrelevant in the fractionation of 15N. The independence of the 14N/15N ratio with time, found also in high-mass star-forming cores, indicates that the enrichment in 15N revealed in comets and protoplanetary discs is unlikely to happen at core scales. Nevertheless, we have firmly confirmed the evolutionary trend expected for the H/D ratio, with the N2H+/N2D+ ratio decreasing before the pre-stellar core phase, and increasing monotonically during the protostellar phase. We have also confirmed clearly that the two fractionation mechanisms are not related.

Accurate prediction of interfacial residues in two-domain proteins using evolutionary information: implications for three-dimensional modeling.

PubMed

Bhaskara, Ramachandra M; Padhi, Amrita; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy

2014-07-01

With the preponderance of multidomain proteins in eukaryotic genomes, it is essential to recognize the constituent domains and their functions. Often function involves communications across the domain interfaces, and the knowledge of the interacting sites is essential to our understanding of the structure-function relationship. Using evolutionary information extracted from homologous domains in at least two diverse domain architectures (single and multidomain), we predict the interface residues corresponding to domains from the two-domain proteins. We also use information from the three-dimensional structures of individual domains of two-domain proteins to train naïve Bayes classifier model to predict the interfacial residues. Our predictions are highly accurate (∼85%) and specific (∼95%) to the domain-domain interfaces. This method is specific to multidomain proteins which contain domains in at least more than one protein architectural context. Using predicted residues to constrain domain-domain interaction, rigid-body docking was able to provide us with accurate full-length protein structures with correct orientation of domains. We believe that these results can be of considerable interest toward rational protein and interaction design, apart from providing us with valuable information on the nature of interactions. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Combining Physicochemical and Evolutionary Information for Protein Contact Prediction

PubMed Central

Schneider, Michael; Brock, Oliver

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel contact prediction method that achieves high prediction accuracy by combining evolutionary and physicochemical information about native contacts. We obtain evolutionary information from multiple-sequence alignments and physicochemical information from predicted ab initio protein structures. These structures represent low-energy states in an energy landscape and thus capture the physicochemical information encoded in the energy function. Such low-energy structures are likely to contain native contacts, even if their overall fold is not native. To differentiate native from non-native contacts in those structures, we develop a graph-based representation of the structural context of contacts. We then use this representation to train an support vector machine classifier to identify most likely native contacts in otherwise non-native structures. The resulting contact predictions are highly accurate. As a result of combining two sources of information—evolutionary and physicochemical—we maintain prediction accuracy even when only few sequence homologs are present. We show that the predicted contacts help to improve ab initio structure prediction. A web service is available at http://compbio.robotics.tu-berlin.de/epc-map/. PMID:25338092

Interaction times change evolutionary outcomes: Two-player matrix games.

PubMed

Křivan, Vlastimil; Cressman, Ross

2017-03-07

Two most influential models of evolutionary game theory are the Hawk-Dove and Prisoner's dilemma models. The Hawk-Dove model explains evolution of aggressiveness, predicting individuals should be aggressive when the cost of fighting is lower than its benefit. As the cost of aggressiveness increases and outweighs benefits, aggressiveness in the population should decrease. Similarly, the Prisoner's dilemma models evolution of cooperation. It predicts that individuals should never cooperate despite cooperation leading to a higher collective fitness than defection. The question is then what are the conditions under which cooperation evolves? These classic matrix games, which are based on pair-wise interactions between two opponents with player payoffs given in matrix form, do not consider the effect that conflict duration has on payoffs. However, interactions between different strategies often take different amounts of time. In this article, we develop a new approach to an old idea that opportunity costs lost while engaged in an interaction affect individual fitness. When applied to the Hawk-Dove and Prisoner's dilemma, our theory that incorporates general interaction times leads to qualitatively different predictions. In particular, not all individuals will behave as Hawks when fighting cost is lower than benefit, and cooperation will evolve in the Prisoner's dilemma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Simple General Model of Evolutionary Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Stefan

Evolution is a process in which some variations that emerge within a population (of, e.g., biological species or industrial goods) get selected, survive, and proliferate, whereas others vanish. Survival probability, proliferation, or production rates are associated with the "fitness" of a particular variation. We argue that the notion of fitness is an a posteriori concept in the sense that one can assign higher fitness to species or goods that survive but one can generally not derive or predict fitness per se. Whereas proliferation rates can be measured, fitness landscapes, that is, the inter-dependence of proliferation rates, cannot. For this reason we think that in a physical theory of evolution such notions should be avoided. Here we review a recent quantitative formulation of evolutionary dynamics that provides a framework for the co-evolution of species and their fitness landscapes (Thurner et al., 2010, Physica A 389, 747; Thurner et al., 2010, New J. Phys. 12, 075029; Klimek et al., 2009, Phys. Rev. E 82, 011901 (2010). The corresponding model leads to a generic evolutionary dynamics characterized by phases of relative stability in terms of diversity, followed by phases of massive restructuring. These dynamical modes can be interpreted as punctuated equilibria in biology, or Schumpeterian business cycles (Schumpeter, 1939, Business Cycles, McGraw-Hill, London) in economics. We show that phase transitions that separate phases of high and low diversity can be approximated surprisingly well by mean-field methods. We demonstrate that the mathematical framework is suited to understand systemic properties of evolutionary systems, such as their proneness to collapse, or their potential for diversification. The framework suggests that evolutionary processes are naturally linked to self-organized criticality and to properties of production matrices, such as their eigenvalue spectra. Even though the model is phrased in general terms it is also practical in the sense that it's predictions can be used to understand a series of experimental data ranging from the fossil record to macroeconomic indices.

The long-term evolution of multilocus traits under frequency-dependent disruptive selection.

PubMed

van Doorn, G Sander; Dieckmann, Ulf

2006-11-01

Frequency-dependent disruptive selection is widely recognized as an important source of genetic variation. Its evolutionary consequences have been extensively studied using phenotypic evolutionary models, based on quantitative genetics, game theory, or adaptive dynamics. However, the genetic assumptions underlying these approaches are highly idealized and, even worse, predict different consequences of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Population genetic models, by contrast, enable genotypic evolutionary models, but traditionally assume constant fitness values. Only a minority of these models thus addresses frequency-dependent selection, and only a few of these do so in a multilocus context. An inherent limitation of these remaining studies is that they only investigate the short-term maintenance of genetic variation. Consequently, the long-term evolution of multilocus characters under frequency-dependent disruptive selection remains poorly understood. We aim to bridge this gap between phenotypic and genotypic models by studying a multilocus version of Levene's soft-selection model. Individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations based on adaptive dynamics theory provide insights into the underlying evolutionary dynamics. Our analysis uncovers a general pattern of polymorphism formation and collapse, likely to apply to a wide variety of genetic systems: after convergence to a fitness minimum and the subsequent establishment of genetic polymorphism at multiple loci, genetic variation becomes increasingly concentrated on a few loci, until eventually only a single polymorphic locus remains. This evolutionary process combines features observed in quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics models, and it can be explained as a consequence of changes in the selection regime that are inherent to frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Our findings demonstrate that the potential of frequency-dependent disruptive selection to maintain polygenic variation is considerably smaller than previously expected.

Comparative transcriptome analysis reveals vertebrate phylotypic period during organogenesis

PubMed Central

Irie, Naoki; Kuratani, Shigeru

2011-01-01

One of the central issues in evolutionary developmental biology is how we can formulate the relationships between evolutionary and developmental processes. Two major models have been proposed: the 'funnel-like' model, in which the earliest embryo shows the most conserved morphological pattern, followed by diversifying later stages, and the 'hourglass' model, in which constraints are imposed to conserve organogenesis stages, which is called the phylotypic period. Here we perform a quantitative comparative transcriptome analysis of several model vertebrate embryos and show that the pharyngula stage is most conserved, whereas earlier and later stages are rather divergent. These results allow us to predict approximate developmental timetables between different species, and indicate that pharyngula embryos have the most conserved gene expression profiles, which may be the source of the basic body plan of vertebrates. PMID:21427719

Evolutionary Inference across Eukaryotes Identifies Specific Pressures Favoring Mitochondrial Gene Retention.

PubMed

Johnston, Iain G; Williams, Ben P

2016-02-24

Since their endosymbiotic origin, mitochondria have lost most of their genes. Although many selective mechanisms underlying the evolution of mitochondrial genomes have been proposed, a data-driven exploration of these hypotheses is lacking, and a quantitatively supported consensus remains absent. We developed HyperTraPS, a methodology coupling stochastic modeling with Bayesian inference, to identify the ordering of evolutionary events and suggest their causes. Using 2015 complete mitochondrial genomes, we inferred evolutionary trajectories of mtDNA gene loss across the eukaryotic tree of life. We find that proteins comprising the structural cores of the electron transport chain are preferentially encoded within mitochondrial genomes across eukaryotes. A combination of high GC content and high protein hydrophobicity is required to explain patterns of mtDNA gene retention; a model that accounts for these selective pressures can also predict the success of artificial gene transfer experiments in vivo. This work provides a general method for data-driven inference of the ordering of evolutionary and progressive events, here identifying the distinct features shaping mitochondrial genomes of present-day species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks.

PubMed

Iyer, Swami; Killingback, Timothy

2014-10-01

The traveler's dilemma game and the minimum-effort coordination game are social dilemmas that have received significant attention resulting from the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are inconsistent with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, both the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games have potentially important applications in evolutionary biology. Interestingly, standard deterministic evolutionary game theory, as represented by the replicator dynamics in a well-mixed population, is also inadequate to account for the behavior observed in these games. Here we study the evolutionary dynamics of both these games in populations with interaction patterns described by a variety of complex network topologies. We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of these games through agent-based simulations on both model and empirical networks. In particular, we study the effects of network clustering and assortativity on the evolutionary dynamics of both games. In general, we show that the evolutionary behavior of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks is in good agreement with that observed experimentally. Thus, formulating the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks neatly resolves the paradoxical aspects of these games.

Evolutionary dynamics of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Swami; Killingback, Timothy

2014-10-01

The traveler's dilemma game and the minimum-effort coordination game are social dilemmas that have received significant attention resulting from the fact that the predictions of classical game theory are inconsistent with the results found when the games are studied experimentally. Moreover, both the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games have potentially important applications in evolutionary biology. Interestingly, standard deterministic evolutionary game theory, as represented by the replicator dynamics in a well-mixed population, is also inadequate to account for the behavior observed in these games. Here we study the evolutionary dynamics of both these games in populations with interaction patterns described by a variety of complex network topologies. We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of these games through agent-based simulations on both model and empirical networks. In particular, we study the effects of network clustering and assortativity on the evolutionary dynamics of both games. In general, we show that the evolutionary behavior of the traveler's dilemma and minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks is in good agreement with that observed experimentally. Thus, formulating the traveler's dilemma and the minimum-effort coordination games on complex networks neatly resolves the paradoxical aspects of these games.

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Sauterey, Boris; Ward, Ben A.; Follows, Michael J.; Bowler, Chris; Claessen, David

2015-01-01

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that “Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects”, we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean. PMID:25852217

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Sauterey, Boris; Ward, Ben A; Follows, Michael J; Bowler, Chris; Claessen, David

2015-01-01

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that "Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects", we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean.

Evolutionary relatedness does not predict competition and co-occurrence in natural or experimental communities of green algae

PubMed Central

Alexandrou, Markos A.; Cardinale, Bradley J.; Hall, John D.; Delwiche, Charles F.; Fritschie, Keith; Narwani, Anita; Venail, Patrick A.; Bentlage, Bastian; Pankey, M. Sabrina; Oakley, Todd H.

2015-01-01

The competition-relatedness hypothesis (CRH) predicts that the strength of competition is the strongest among closely related species and decreases as species become less related. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that common ancestry causes close relatives to share biological traits that lead to greater ecological similarity. Although intuitively appealing, the extent to which phylogeny can predict competition and co-occurrence among species has only recently been rigorously tested, with mixed results. When studies have failed to support the CRH, critics have pointed out at least three limitations: (i) the use of data poor phylogenies that provide inaccurate estimates of species relatedness, (ii) the use of inappropriate statistical models that fail to detect relationships between relatedness and species interactions amidst nonlinearities and heteroskedastic variances, and (iii) overly simplified laboratory conditions that fail to allow eco-evolutionary relationships to emerge. Here, we address these limitations and find they do not explain why evolutionary relatedness fails to predict the strength of species interactions or probabilities of coexistence among freshwater green algae. First, we construct a new data-rich, transcriptome-based phylogeny of common freshwater green algae that are commonly cultured and used for laboratory experiments. Using this new phylogeny, we re-analyse ecological data from three previously published laboratory experiments. After accounting for the possibility of nonlinearities and heterogeneity of variances across levels of relatedness, we find no relationship between phylogenetic distance and ecological traits. In addition, we show that communities of North American green algae are randomly composed with respect to their evolutionary relationships in 99% of 1077 lakes spanning the continental United States. Together, these analyses result in one of the most comprehensive case studies of how evolutionary history influences species interactions and community assembly in both natural and experimental systems. Our results challenge the generality of the CRH and suggest it may be time to re-evaluate the validity and assumptions of this hypothesis. PMID:25473009

Optimality models in the age of experimental evolution and genomics.

PubMed

Bull, J J; Wang, I-N

2010-09-01

Optimality models have been used to predict evolution of many properties of organisms. They typically neglect genetic details, whether by necessity or design. This omission is a common source of criticism, and although this limitation of optimality is widely acknowledged, it has mostly been defended rather than evaluated for its impact. Experimental adaptation of model organisms provides a new arena for testing optimality models and for simultaneously integrating genetics. First, an experimental context with a well-researched organism allows dissection of the evolutionary process to identify causes of model failure--whether the model is wrong about genetics or selection. Second, optimality models provide a meaningful context for the process and mechanics of evolution, and thus may be used to elicit realistic genetic bases of adaptation--an especially useful augmentation to well-researched genetic systems. A few studies of microbes have begun to pioneer this new direction. Incompatibility between the assumed and actual genetics has been demonstrated to be the cause of model failure in some cases. More interestingly, evolution at the phenotypic level has sometimes matched prediction even though the adaptive mutations defy mechanisms established by decades of classic genetic studies. Integration of experimental evolutionary tests with genetics heralds a new wave for optimality models and their extensions that does not merely emphasize the forces driving evolution.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host-virus system.

PubMed

Frickel, Jens; Sieber, Michael; Becks, Lutz

2016-04-01

Eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco-evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco-evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host-virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade-off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade-off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Phylogenetic Analysis Supports the Aerobic-Capacity Model for the Evolution of Endothermy.

PubMed

Nespolo, Roberto F; Solano-Iguaran, Jaiber J; Bozinovic, Francisco

2017-01-01

The evolution of endothermy is a controversial topic in evolutionary biology, although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain it. To a great extent, the debate has centered on the aerobic-capacity model (AC model), an adaptive hypothesis involving maximum and resting rates of metabolism (MMR and RMR, respectively; hereafter "metabolic traits"). The AC model posits that MMR, a proxy of aerobic capacity and sustained activity, is the target of directional selection and that RMR is also influenced as a correlated response. Associated with this reasoning are the assumptions that (1) factorial aerobic scope (FAS; MMR/RMR) and net aerobic scope (NAS; MMR - RMR), two commonly used indexes of aerobic capacity, show different evolutionary optima and (2) the functional link between MMR and RMR is a basic design feature of vertebrates. To test these assumptions, we performed a comparative phylogenetic analysis in 176 vertebrate species, ranging from fish and amphibians to birds and mammals. Using disparity-through-time analysis, we also explored trait diversification and fitted different evolutionary models to study the evolution of metabolic traits. As predicted, we found (1) a positive phylogenetic correlation between RMR and MMR, (2) diversification of metabolic traits exceeding that of random-walk expectations, (3) that a model assuming selection fits the data better than alternative models, and (4) that a single evolutionary optimum best fits FAS data, whereas a model involving two optima (one for ectotherms and another for endotherms) is the best explanatory model for NAS. These results support the AC model and give novel information concerning the mode and tempo of physiological evolution of vertebrates.

Chemical abundances of fast-rotating massive stars . II. Interpretation and comparison with evolutionary models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazorla, Constantin; Nazé, Yaël; Morel, Thierry; Georgy, Cyril; Godart, Mélanie; Langer, Norbert

2017-08-01

Aims: Past observations of fast-rotating massive stars exhibiting normal nitrogen abundances at their surface have raised questions about the rotational mixing paradigm. We revisit this question thanks to a spectroscopic analysis of a sample of bright fast-rotating OB stars, with the goal of quantifying the efficiency of rotational mixing at high rotation rates. Methods: Our sample consists of 40 fast rotators on the main sequence, with spectral types comprised between B0.5 and O4. We compare the abundances of some key element indicators of mixing (He, CNO) with the predictions of evolutionary models for single objects and for stars in interacting binary systems. Results: The properties of half of the sample stars can be reproduced by single evolutionary models, even in the case of probable or confirmed binaries that can therefore be true single stars in a pre-interaction configuration. The main problem for the rest of the sample is a mismatch for the [N/O] abundance ratio (we confirm the existence of fast rotators with a lack of nitrogen enrichment) and/or a high helium abundance that cannot be accounted for by models. Modifying the diffusion coefficient implemented in single-star models does not solve the problem as it cannot simultaneously reproduce the helium abundances and [N/O] abundance ratios of our targets. Since part of them actually are binaries, we also compared their chemical properties with predictions for post-mass transfer systems. We found that these models can explain the abundances measured for a majority of our targets, including some of the most helium-enriched, but fail to reproduce them in other cases. Our study thus reveals that some physical ingredients are still missing in current models.

Facial Shape Analysis Identifies Valid Cues to Aspects of Physiological Health in Caucasian, Asian, and African Populations.

PubMed

Stephen, Ian D; Hiew, Vivian; Coetzee, Vinet; Tiddeman, Bernard P; Perrett, David I

2017-01-01

Facial cues contribute to attractiveness, including shape cues such as symmetry, averageness, and sexual dimorphism. These cues may represent cues to objective aspects of physiological health, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage to individuals who find them attractive. The link between facial cues and aspects of physiological health is therefore central to evolutionary explanations of attractiveness. Previously, studies linking facial cues to aspects of physiological health have been infrequent, have had mixed results, and have tended to focus on individual facial cues in isolation. Geometric morphometric methodology (GMM) allows a bottom-up approach to identifying shape correlates of aspects of physiological health. Here, we apply GMM to facial shape data, producing models that successfully predict aspects of physiological health in 272 Asian, African, and Caucasian faces - percentage body fat (21.0% of variance explained), body mass index (BMI; 31.9%) and blood pressure (BP; 21.3%). Models successfully predict percentage body fat and blood pressure even when controlling for BMI, suggesting that they are not simply measuring body size. Predicted values of BMI and BP, but not percentage body fat, correlate with health ratings. When asked to manipulate the shape of faces along the physiological health variable axes (as determined by the models), participants reduced predicted BMI, body fat and (marginally) BP, suggesting that facial shape provides a valid cue to aspects of physiological health.

Facial Shape Analysis Identifies Valid Cues to Aspects of Physiological Health in Caucasian, Asian, and African Populations

PubMed Central

Stephen, Ian D.; Hiew, Vivian; Coetzee, Vinet; Tiddeman, Bernard P.; Perrett, David I.

2017-01-01

Facial cues contribute to attractiveness, including shape cues such as symmetry, averageness, and sexual dimorphism. These cues may represent cues to objective aspects of physiological health, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage to individuals who find them attractive. The link between facial cues and aspects of physiological health is therefore central to evolutionary explanations of attractiveness. Previously, studies linking facial cues to aspects of physiological health have been infrequent, have had mixed results, and have tended to focus on individual facial cues in isolation. Geometric morphometric methodology (GMM) allows a bottom–up approach to identifying shape correlates of aspects of physiological health. Here, we apply GMM to facial shape data, producing models that successfully predict aspects of physiological health in 272 Asian, African, and Caucasian faces – percentage body fat (21.0% of variance explained), body mass index (BMI; 31.9%) and blood pressure (BP; 21.3%). Models successfully predict percentage body fat and blood pressure even when controlling for BMI, suggesting that they are not simply measuring body size. Predicted values of BMI and BP, but not percentage body fat, correlate with health ratings. When asked to manipulate the shape of faces along the physiological health variable axes (as determined by the models), participants reduced predicted BMI, body fat and (marginally) BP, suggesting that facial shape provides a valid cue to aspects of physiological health. PMID:29163270

Impact of species delimitation and sampling on niche models and phylogeographical inference: A case study of the East African reed frog Hyperolius substriatus Ahl, 1931.

PubMed

Bittencourt-Silva, Gabriela B; Lawson, Lucinda P; Tolley, Krystal A; Portik, Daniel M; Barratt, Christopher D; Nagel, Peter; Loader, Simon P

2017-09-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been used in a wide range of ecological and evolutionary studies. In biogeographic studies these models have, among other things, helped in the discovery of new allopatric populations, and even new species. However, small sample sizes and questionable taxonomic delimitation can challenge models, often decreasing their accuracy. Herein we examine the sensitivity of ENMs to the addition of new, geographically isolated populations, and the impact of applying different taxonomic delimitations. The East African reed frog Hyperolius substriatus Ahl, 1931 was selected as a case study because it has been the subject of previous ENM predictions. Our results suggest that addition of new data and reanalysis of species lineages of H. substriatus improved our understanding of the evolutionary history of this group of frogs. ENMs provided robust predictions, even when some populations were deliberately excluded from the models. Splitting the lineages based on genetic relationships and analysing the ENMs separately provided insights about the biogeographical processes that led to the current distribution of H. substriatus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A road map for integrating eco-evolutionary processes into biodiversity models.

PubMed

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Lavergne, Sébastien; Mouillot, David; Mouquet, Nicolas; Schiffers, Katja; Gravel, Dominique

2013-05-01

The demand for projections of the future distribution of biodiversity has triggered an upsurge in modelling at the crossroads between ecology and evolution. Despite the enthusiasm around these so-called biodiversity models, most approaches are still criticised for not integrating key processes known to shape species ranges and community structure. Developing an integrative modelling framework for biodiversity distribution promises to improve the reliability of predictions and to give a better understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of species and communities under changing environments. In this article, we briefly review some eco-evolutionary processes and interplays among them, which are essential to provide reliable projections of species distributions and community structure. We identify gaps in theory, quantitative knowledge and data availability hampering the development of an integrated modelling framework. We argue that model development relying on a strong theoretical foundation is essential to inspire new models, manage complexity and maintain tractability. We support our argument with an example of a novel integrated model for species distribution modelling, derived from metapopulation theory, which accounts for abiotic constraints, dispersal, biotic interactions and evolution under changing environmental conditions. We hope such a perspective will motivate exciting and novel research, and challenge others to improve on our proposed approach. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The evolution of respect for property.

PubMed

Sherratt, T N; Mesterton-Gibbons, M

2015-06-01

Although possession is 'nine-tenths of the law', respect for ownership is widespread in the animal kingdom even without third-party enforcement. Thus, the first individuals to find objects are frequently left unchallenged by potential competitors and tend to win contests when disputes arise. Game theory has shown that respect for ownership ('Bourgeois' behaviour) can arise as an arbitrary convention to avoid costly disputes. However, the same theory predicts that a paradoxical respect for lack of ownership ('anti-Bourgeois' behaviour) can evolve under the same conditions and in some cases is the only stable outcome. Despite these predictions, anti-Bourgeois behaviour is rare in nature, whereas respect for ownership is frequently not absolute. Here, we review extensions of the classic models involving repeated interactions, confusion over roles, strategic coordination of behaviour ('secret handshakes'), owner-intruder asymmetries and continuous control of fighting investment. Confusion over roles and owner-intruder asymmetries in fighting ability may explain why respect for ownership is often partial. Moreover, although most model extensions facilitate the evolution of Bourgeois-like behaviour, secret handshakes and continuous control of fighting investment render the alternative anti-Bourgeois convention unstable. We develop these insights to highlight several key areas for future investigation. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Assessing Multivariate Constraints to Evolution across Ten Long-Term Avian Studies

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Tarka, Maja; Møller, Anders P.; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Balbontín, Javier; Burke, Terry A.; Doutrelant, Claire; Gregoire, Arnaud; Hansson, Bengt; Hasselquist, Dennis; Gustafsson, Lars; de Lope, Florentino; Marzal, Alfonso; Mills, James A.; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T.; Yarrall, John W.; Charmantier, Anne

2014-01-01

Background In a rapidly changing world, it is of fundamental importance to understand processes constraining or facilitating adaptation through microevolution. As different traits of an organism covary, genetic correlations are expected to affect evolutionary trajectories. However, only limited empirical data are available. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigate the extent to which multivariate constraints affect the rate of adaptation, focusing on four morphological traits often shown to harbour large amounts of genetic variance and considered to be subject to limited evolutionary constraints. Our data set includes unique long-term data for seven bird species and a total of 10 populations. We estimate population-specific matrices of genetic correlations and multivariate selection coefficients to predict evolutionary responses to selection. Using Bayesian methods that facilitate the propagation of errors in estimates, we compare (1) the rate of adaptation based on predicted response to selection when including genetic correlations with predictions from models where these genetic correlations were set to zero and (2) the multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection to the average evolvability in random directions of the phenotypic space. We show that genetic correlations on average decrease the predicted rate of adaptation by 28%. Multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection was systematically lower than average evolvability in random directions of space. These significant reductions in the rate of adaptation and reduced evolvability were due to a general nonalignment of selection and genetic variance, notably orthogonality of directional selection with the size axis along which most (60%) of the genetic variance is found. Conclusions These results suggest that genetic correlations can impose significant constraints on the evolution of avian morphology in wild populations. This could have important impacts on evolutionary dynamics and hence population persistence in the face of rapid environmental change. PMID:24608111

Residue contacts predicted by evolutionary covariance extend the application of ab initio molecular replacement to larger and more challenging protein folds.

PubMed

Simkovic, Felix; Thomas, Jens M H; Keegan, Ronan M; Winn, Martyn D; Mayans, Olga; Rigden, Daniel J

2016-07-01

For many protein families, the deluge of new sequence information together with new statistical protocols now allow the accurate prediction of contacting residues from sequence information alone. This offers the possibility of more accurate ab initio (non-homology-based) structure prediction. Such models can be used in structure solution by molecular replacement (MR) where the target fold is novel or is only distantly related to known structures. Here, AMPLE, an MR pipeline that assembles search-model ensembles from ab initio structure predictions ('decoys'), is employed to assess the value of contact-assisted ab initio models to the crystallographer. It is demonstrated that evolutionary covariance-derived residue-residue contact predictions improve the quality of ab initio models and, consequently, the success rate of MR using search models derived from them. For targets containing β-structure, decoy quality and MR performance were further improved by the use of a β-strand contact-filtering protocol. Such contact-guided decoys achieved 14 structure solutions from 21 attempted protein targets, compared with nine for simple Rosetta decoys. Previously encountered limitations were superseded in two key respects. Firstly, much larger targets of up to 221 residues in length were solved, which is far larger than the previously benchmarked threshold of 120 residues. Secondly, contact-guided decoys significantly improved success with β-sheet-rich proteins. Overall, the improved performance of contact-guided decoys suggests that MR is now applicable to a significantly wider range of protein targets than were previously tractable, and points to a direct benefit to structural biology from the recent remarkable advances in sequencing.

Residue contacts predicted by evolutionary covariance extend the application of ab initio molecular replacement to larger and more challenging protein folds

PubMed Central

Simkovic, Felix; Thomas, Jens M. H.; Keegan, Ronan M.; Winn, Martyn D.; Mayans, Olga; Rigden, Daniel J.

2016-01-01

For many protein families, the deluge of new sequence information together with new statistical protocols now allow the accurate prediction of contacting residues from sequence information alone. This offers the possibility of more accurate ab initio (non-homology-based) structure prediction. Such models can be used in structure solution by molecular replacement (MR) where the target fold is novel or is only distantly related to known structures. Here, AMPLE, an MR pipeline that assembles search-model ensembles from ab initio structure predictions (‘decoys’), is employed to assess the value of contact-assisted ab initio models to the crystallographer. It is demonstrated that evolutionary covariance-derived residue–residue contact predictions improve the quality of ab initio models and, consequently, the success rate of MR using search models derived from them. For targets containing β-structure, decoy quality and MR performance were further improved by the use of a β-strand contact-filtering protocol. Such contact-guided decoys achieved 14 structure solutions from 21 attempted protein targets, compared with nine for simple Rosetta decoys. Previously encountered limitations were superseded in two key respects. Firstly, much larger targets of up to 221 residues in length were solved, which is far larger than the previously benchmarked threshold of 120 residues. Secondly, contact-guided decoys significantly improved success with β-sheet-rich proteins. Overall, the improved performance of contact-guided decoys suggests that MR is now applicable to a significantly wider range of protein targets than were previously tractable, and points to a direct benefit to structural biology from the recent remarkable advances in sequencing. PMID:27437113

FINDSITE-metal: Integrating evolutionary information and machine learning for structure-based metal binding site prediction at the proteome level

PubMed Central

Brylinski, Michal; Skolnick, Jeffrey

2010-01-01

The rapid accumulation of gene sequences, many of which are hypothetical proteins with unknown function, has stimulated the development of accurate computational tools for protein function prediction with evolution/structure-based approaches showing considerable promise. In this paper, we present FINDSITE-metal, a new threading-based method designed specifically to detect metal binding sites in modeled protein structures. Comprehensive benchmarks using different quality protein structures show that weakly homologous protein models provide sufficient structural information for quite accurate annotation by FINDSITE-metal. Combining structure/evolutionary information with machine learning results in highly accurate metal binding annotations; for protein models constructed by TASSER, whose average Cα RMSD from the native structure is 8.9 Å, 59.5% (71.9%) of the best of top five predicted metal locations are within 4 Å (8 Å) from a bound metal in the crystal structure. For most of the targets, multiple metal binding sites are detected with the best predicted binding site at rank 1 and within the top 2 ranks in 65.6% and 83.1% of the cases, respectively. Furthermore, for iron, copper, zinc, calcium and magnesium ions, the binding metal can be predicted with high, typically 70-90%, accuracy. FINDSITE-metal also provides a set of confidence indexes that help assess the reliability of predictions. Finally, we describe the proteome-wide application of FINDSITE-metal that quantifies the metal binding complement of the human proteome. FINDSITE-metal is freely available to the academic community at http://cssb.biology.gatech.edu/findsite-metal/. PMID:21287609

RFDT: A Rotation Forest-based Predictor for Predicting Drug-Target Interactions Using Drug Structure and Protein Sequence Information.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Xin; Liu, Gang; Zhang, Wei

2018-01-01

Identification of interaction between drugs and target proteins plays an important role in discovering new drug candidates. However, through the experimental method to identify the drug-target interactions remain to be extremely time-consuming, expensive and challenging even nowadays. Therefore, it is urgent to develop new computational methods to predict potential drugtarget interactions (DTI). In this article, a novel computational model is developed for predicting potential drug-target interactions under the theory that each drug-target interaction pair can be represented by the structural properties from drugs and evolutionary information derived from proteins. Specifically, the protein sequences are encoded as Position-Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) descriptor which contains information of biological evolutionary and the drug molecules are encoded as fingerprint feature vector which represents the existence of certain functional groups or fragments. Four benchmark datasets involving enzymes, ion channels, GPCRs and nuclear receptors, are independently used for establishing predictive models with Rotation Forest (RF) model. The proposed method achieved the prediction accuracy of 91.3%, 89.1%, 84.1% and 71.1% for four datasets respectively. In order to make our method more persuasive, we compared our classifier with the state-of-theart Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. We also compared the proposed method with other excellent methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in the prediction of DTI, and can provide assistance for new drug research and development. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

XtalOpt  version r9: An open-source evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction

DOE PAGES

Falls, Zackary; Lonie, David C.; Avery, Patrick; ...

2015-10-23

This is a new version of XtalOpt, an evolutionary algorithm for crystal structure prediction available for download from the CPC library or the XtalOpt website, http://xtalopt.github.io. XtalOpt is published under the Gnu Public License (GPL), which is an open source license that is recognized by the Open Source Initiative. We have detailed the new version incorporates many bug-fixes and new features here and predict the crystal structure of a system from its stoichiometry alone, using evolutionary algorithms.

Network-level architecture and the evolutionary potential of underground metabolism.

PubMed

Notebaart, Richard A; Szappanos, Balázs; Kintses, Bálint; Pál, Ferenc; Györkei, Ádám; Bogos, Balázs; Lázár, Viktória; Spohn, Réka; Csörgő, Bálint; Wagner, Allon; Ruppin, Eytan; Pál, Csaba; Papp, Balázs

2014-08-12

A central unresolved issue in evolutionary biology is how metabolic innovations emerge. Low-level enzymatic side activities are frequent and can potentially be recruited for new biochemical functions. However, the role of such underground reactions in adaptation toward novel environments has remained largely unknown and out of reach of computational predictions, not least because these issues demand analyses at the level of the entire metabolic network. Here, we provide a comprehensive computational model of the underground metabolism in Escherichia coli. Most underground reactions are not isolated and 45% of them can be fully wired into the existing network and form novel pathways that produce key precursors for cell growth. This observation allowed us to conduct an integrated genome-wide in silico and experimental survey to characterize the evolutionary potential of E. coli to adapt to hundreds of nutrient conditions. We revealed that underground reactions allow growth in new environments when their activity is increased. We estimate that at least ∼20% of the underground reactions that can be connected to the existing network confer a fitness advantage under specific environments. Moreover, our results demonstrate that the genetic basis of evolutionary adaptations via underground metabolism is computationally predictable. The approach used here has potential for various application areas from bioengineering to medical genetics.

Mate competition and evolutionary outcomes in genetically modified zebrafish (Danio rerio).

PubMed

Howard, Richard D; Rohrer, Karl; Liu, Yiyang; Muir, William M

2015-05-01

Demonstrating relationships between sexual selection mechanisms and trait evolution is central to testing evolutionary theory. Using zebrafish, we found that wild-type males possessed a significant advantage in mate competition over transgenic RFP Glofish® males. In mating trials, wild-type males were aggressively superior to transgenic males in male-male chases and male-female chases; as a result, wild-type males sired 2.5× as many young as did transgenic males. In contrast, an earlier study demonstrated that female zebrafish preferred transgenic males as mates when mate competition was excluded experimentally. We tested the evolutionary consequence of this conflict between sexual selection mechanisms in a long-term study. The predicted loss of the transgenic phenotype was confirmed. More than 18,500 adults collected from 18 populations across 15 generations revealed that the frequency of the transgenic phenotype declined rapidly and was eliminated entirely in all but one population. Fitness component data for both sexes indicated that only male mating success differed between wild-type and transgenic individuals. Our predictive demographic model based on fitness components closely matched the rate of transgenic phenotype loss observed in the long-term study, thereby supporting its utility for studies assessing evolutionary outcomes of escaped or released genetically modified animals. © 2015 The Author(s).

Joint scaling laws in functional and evolutionary categories in prokaryotic genomes

PubMed Central

Grilli, J.; Bassetti, B.; Maslov, S.; Cosentino Lagomarsino, M.

2012-01-01

We propose and study a class-expansion/innovation/loss model of genome evolution taking into account biological roles of genes and their constituent domains. In our model, numbers of genes in different functional categories are coupled to each other. For example, an increase in the number of metabolic enzymes in a genome is usually accompanied by addition of new transcription factors regulating these enzymes. Such coupling can be thought of as a proportional ‘recipe’ for genome composition of the type ‘a spoonful of sugar for each egg yolk’. The model jointly reproduces two known empirical laws: the distribution of family sizes and the non-linear scaling of the number of genes in certain functional categories (e.g. transcription factors) with genome size. In addition, it allows us to derive a novel relation between the exponents characterizing these two scaling laws, establishing a direct quantitative connection between evolutionary and functional categories. It predicts that functional categories that grow faster-than-linearly with genome size to be characterized by flatter-than-average family size distributions. This relation is confirmed by our bioinformatics analysis of prokaryotic genomes. This proves that the joint quantitative trends of functional and evolutionary classes can be understood in terms of evolutionary growth with proportional recipes. PMID:21937509

Using evolutionary computations to understand the design and evolution of gene and cell regulatory networks.

PubMed

Spirov, Alexander; Holloway, David

2013-07-15

This paper surveys modeling approaches for studying the evolution of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Modeling of the design or 'wiring' of GRNs has become increasingly common in developmental and medical biology, as a means of quantifying gene-gene interactions, the response to perturbations, and the overall dynamic motifs of networks. Drawing from developments in GRN 'design' modeling, a number of groups are now using simulations to study how GRNs evolve, both for comparative genomics and to uncover general principles of evolutionary processes. Such work can generally be termed evolution in silico. Complementary to these biologically-focused approaches, a now well-established field of computer science is Evolutionary Computations (ECs), in which highly efficient optimization techniques are inspired from evolutionary principles. In surveying biological simulation approaches, we discuss the considerations that must be taken with respect to: (a) the precision and completeness of the data (e.g. are the simulations for very close matches to anatomical data, or are they for more general exploration of evolutionary principles); (b) the level of detail to model (we proceed from 'coarse-grained' evolution of simple gene-gene interactions to 'fine-grained' evolution at the DNA sequence level); (c) to what degree is it important to include the genome's cellular context; and (d) the efficiency of computation. With respect to the latter, we argue that developments in computer science EC offer the means to perform more complete simulation searches, and will lead to more comprehensive biological predictions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Cloud Evolution VI. Measuring cloud ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique; Zamora-Avilés, Manuel; Galván-Madrid, Roberto; Forbrich, Jan

2018-06-01

In previous contributions, we have presented an analytical model describing the evolution of molecular clouds (MCs) undergoing hierarchical gravitational contraction. The cloud's evolution is characterized by an initial increase in its mass, density, and star formation rate (SFR) and efficiency (SFE) as it contracts, followed by a decrease of these quantities as newly formed massive stars begin to disrupt the cloud. The main parameter of the model is the maximum mass reached by the cloud during its evolution. Thus, specifying the instantaneous mass and some other variable completely determines the cloud's evolutionary stage. We apply the model to interpret the observed scatter in SFEs of the cloud sample compiled by Lada et al. as an evolutionary effect so that, although clouds such as California and Orion A have similar masses, they are in very different evolutionary stages, causing their very different observed SFRs and SFEs. The model predicts that the California cloud will eventually reach a significantly larger total mass than the Orion A cloud. Next, we apply the model to derive estimated ages of the clouds since the time when approximately 25% of their mass had become molecular. We find ages from ˜1.5 to 27 Myr, with the most inactive clouds being the youngest. Further predictions of the model are that clouds with very low SFEs should have massive atomic envelopes constituting the majority of their gravitational mass, and that low-mass clouds (M ˜ 103-104M⊙) end their lives with a mini-burst of star formation, reaching SFRs ˜300-500 M⊙ Myr-1. By this time, they have contracted to become compact (˜1 pc) massive star-forming clumps, in general embedded within larger GMCs.

Perceived Vulnerability to Disease Predicts Environmental Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prokop, Pavol; Kubiatko, Milan

2014-01-01

Investigating predictors of environmental attitudes may bring valuable benefits in terms of improving public awareness about biodiversity degradation and increased pro-environmental behaviour. Here we used an evolutionary approach to study environmental attitudes based on disease-threat model. We hypothesized that people vulnerable to diseases may…

Evaluating alternative gait strategies using evolutionary robotics.

PubMed

Sellers, William I; Dennis, Louise A; W -J, Wang; Crompton, Robin H

2004-05-01

Evolutionary robotics is a branch of artificial intelligence concerned with the automatic generation of autonomous robots. Usually the form of the robot is predefined and various computational techniques are used to control the machine's behaviour. One aspect is the spontaneous generation of walking in legged robots and this can be used to investigate the mechanical requirements for efficient walking in bipeds. This paper demonstrates a bipedal simulator that spontaneously generates walking and running gaits. The model can be customized to represent a range of hominoid morphologies and used to predict performance parameters such as preferred speed and metabolic energy cost. Because it does not require any motion capture data it is particularly suitable for investigating locomotion in fossil animals. The predictions for modern humans are highly accurate in terms of energy cost for a given speed and thus the values predicted for other bipeds are likely to be good estimates. To illustrate this the cost of transport is calculated for Australopithecus afarensis. The model allows the degree of maximum extension at the knee to be varied causing the model to adopt walking gaits varying from chimpanzee-like to human-like. The energy costs associated with these gait choices can thus be calculated and this information used to evaluate possible locomotor strategies in early hominids.

Evaluating alternative gait strategies using evolutionary robotics

PubMed Central

Sellers, William I; Dennis, Louise A; Wang, W -J; Crompton, Robin H

2004-01-01

Evolutionary robotics is a branch of artificial intelligence concerned with the automatic generation of autonomous robots. Usually the form of the robot is predefined and various computational techniques are used to control the machine's behaviour. One aspect is the spontaneous generation of walking in legged robots and this can be used to investigate the mechanical requirements for efficient walking in bipeds. This paper demonstrates a bipedal simulator that spontaneously generates walking and running gaits. The model can be customized to represent a range of hominoid morphologies and used to predict performance parameters such as preferred speed and metabolic energy cost. Because it does not require any motion capture data it is particularly suitable for investigating locomotion in fossil animals. The predictions for modern humans are highly accurate in terms of energy cost for a given speed and thus the values predicted for other bipeds are likely to be good estimates. To illustrate this the cost of transport is calculated for Australopithecus afarensis. The model allows the degree of maximum extension at the knee to be varied causing the model to adopt walking gaits varying from chimpanzee-like to human-like. The energy costs associated with these gait choices can thus be calculated and this information used to evaluate possible locomotor strategies in early hominids. PMID:15198699

The role of biotic forces in driving macroevolution: beyond the Red Queen

PubMed Central

Voje, Kjetil L.; Holen, Øistein H.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

A multitude of hypotheses claim that abiotic factors are the main drivers of macroevolutionary change. By contrast, Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis is often put forward as the sole representative of the view that biotic forcing is the main evolutionary driver. This imbalance of hypotheses does not reflect our current knowledge: theoretical work demonstrates the plausibility of biotically driven long-term evolution, whereas empirical work suggests a central role for biotic forcing in macroevolution. We call for a more pluralistic view of how biotic forces may drive long-term evolution that is compatible with both phenotypic stasis in the fossil record and with non-constant extinction rates. Promising avenues of research include contrasting predictions from relevant theories within ecology and macroevolution, as well as embracing both abiotic and biotic proxies while modelling long-term evolutionary data. By fitting models describing hypotheses of biotically driven macroevolution to data, we could dissect their predictions and transcend beyond pattern description, possibly narrowing the divide between our current understanding of micro- and macroevolution. PMID:25948685

Accurate prediction of protein-protein interactions by integrating potential evolutionary information embedded in PSSM profile and discriminative vector machine classifier.

PubMed

Li, Zheng-Wei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Li, Li-Ping; Huang, De-Shuang; Yan, Gui-Ying; Nie, Ru; Huang, Yu-An

2017-04-04

Identification of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is of critical importance for deciphering the underlying mechanisms of almost all biological processes of cell and providing great insight into the study of human disease. Although much effort has been devoted to identifying PPIs from various organisms, existing high-throughput biological techniques are time-consuming, expensive, and have high false positive and negative results. Thus it is highly urgent to develop in silico methods to predict PPIs efficiently and accurately in this post genomic era. In this article, we report a novel computational model combining our newly developed discriminative vector machine classifier (DVM) and an improved Weber local descriptor (IWLD) for the prediction of PPIs. Two components, differential excitation and orientation, are exploited to build evolutionary features for each protein sequence. The main characteristics of the proposed method lies in introducing an effective feature descriptor IWLD which can capture highly discriminative evolutionary information from position-specific scoring matrixes (PSSM) of protein data, and employing the powerful and robust DVM classifier. When applying the proposed method to Yeast and H. pylori data sets, we obtained excellent prediction accuracies as high as 96.52% and 91.80%, respectively, which are significantly better than the previous methods. Extensive experiments were then performed for predicting cross-species PPIs and the predictive results were also pretty promising. To further validate the performance of the proposed method, we compared it with the state-of-the-art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on Human data set. The experimental results obtained indicate that our method is highly effective for PPIs prediction and can be taken as a supplementary tool for future proteomics research.

Identifying predictors of time-inhomogeneous viral evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Rodrigo, Allen G; Suchard, Marc A; Lemey, Philippe

2016-07-01

Various factors determine the rate at which mutations are generated and fixed in viral genomes. Viral evolutionary rates may vary over the course of a single persistent infection and can reflect changes in replication rates and selective dynamics. Dedicated statistical inference approaches are required to understand how the complex interplay of these processes shapes the genetic diversity and divergence in viral populations. Although evolutionary models accommodating a high degree of complexity can now be formalized, adequately informing these models by potentially sparse data, and assessing the association of the resulting estimates with external predictors, remains a major challenge. In this article, we present a novel Bayesian evolutionary inference method, which integrates multiple potential predictors and tests their association with variation in the absolute rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions along the evolutionary history. We consider clinical and virological measures as predictors, but also changes in population size trajectories that are simultaneously inferred using coalescent modelling. We demonstrate the potential of our method in an application to within-host HIV-1 sequence data sampled throughout the infection of multiple patients. While analyses of individual patient populations lack statistical power, we detect significant evidence for an abrupt drop in non-synonymous rates in late stage infection and a more gradual increase in synonymous rates over the course of infection in a joint analysis across all patients. The former is predicted by the immune relaxation hypothesis while the latter may be in line with increasing replicative fitness during the asymptomatic stage.

Phenotype–genotype correlation in Hirschsprung disease is illuminated by comparative analysis of the RET protein sequence

PubMed Central

Kashuk, Carl S.; Stone, Eric A.; Grice, Elizabeth A.; Portnoy, Matthew E.; Green, Eric D.; Sidow, Arend; Chakravarti, Aravinda; McCallion, Andrew S.

2005-01-01

The ability to discriminate between deleterious and neutral amino acid substitutions in the genes of patients remains a significant challenge in human genetics. The increasing availability of genomic sequence data from multiple vertebrate species allows inclusion of sequence conservation and physicochemical properties of residues to be used for functional prediction. In this study, the RET receptor tyrosine kinase serves as a model disease gene in which a broad spectrum (≥116) of disease-associated mutations has been identified among patients with Hirschsprung disease and multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2. We report the alignment of the human RET protein sequence with the orthologous sequences of 12 non-human vertebrates (eight mammalian, one avian, and three teleost species), their comparative analysis, the evolutionary topology of the RET protein, and predicted tolerance for all published missense mutations. We show that, although evolutionary conservation alone provides significant information to predict the effect of a RET mutation, a model that combines comparative sequence data with analysis of physiochemical properties in a quantitative framework provides far greater accuracy. Although the ability to discern the impact of a mutation is imperfect, our analyses permit substantial discrimination between predicted functional classes of RET mutations and disease severity even for a multigenic disease such as Hirschsprung disease. PMID:15956201

A case study of bats and white-nose syndrome demonstrating how to model population viability with evolutionary effects.

PubMed

Maslo, Brooke; Fefferman, Nina H

2015-08-01

Ecological factors generally affect population viability on rapid time scales. Traditional population viability analyses (PVA) therefore focus on alleviating ecological pressures, discounting potential evolutionary impacts on individual phenotypes. Recent studies of evolutionary rescue (ER) focus on cases in which severe, environmentally induced population bottlenecks trigger a rapid evolutionary response that can potentially reverse demographic threats. ER models have focused on shifting genetics and resulting population recovery, but no one has explored how to incorporate those findings into PVA. We integrated ER into PVA to identify the critical decision interval for evolutionary rescue (DIER) under which targeted conservation action should be applied to buffer populations undergoing ER against extinction from stochastic events and to determine the most appropriate vital rate to target to promote population recovery. We applied this model to little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) affected by white-nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease causing massive declines in several North American bat populations. Under the ER scenario, the model predicted that the DIER period for little brown bats was within 11 years of initial WNS emergence, after which they stabilized at a positive growth rate (λ = 1.05). By comparing our model results with population trajectories of multiple infected hibernacula across the WNS range, we concluded that ER is a potential explanation of observed little brown bat population trajectories across multiple hibernacula within the affected range. Our approach provides a tool that can be used by all managers to provide testable hypotheses regarding the occurrence of ER in declining populations, suggest empirical studies to better parameterize the population genetics and conservation-relevant vital rates, and identify the DIER period during which management strategies will be most effective for species conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Computational optimization and biological evolution.

PubMed

Goryanin, Igor

2010-10-01

Modelling and optimization principles become a key concept in many biological areas, especially in biochemistry. Definitions of objective function, fitness and co-evolution, although they differ between biology and mathematics, are similar in a general sense. Although successful in fitting models to experimental data, and some biochemical predictions, optimization and evolutionary computations should be developed further to make more accurate real-life predictions, and deal not only with one organism in isolation, but also with communities of symbiotic and competing organisms. One of the future goals will be to explain and predict evolution not only for organisms in shake flasks or fermenters, but for real competitive multispecies environments.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Biomechanical Diversity of Mating Structures among Harvestmen Species Is Consistent with a Spectrum of Precopulatory Strategies

PubMed Central

Burns, Mercedes; Shultz, Jeffrey W.

2015-01-01

Diversity in reproductive structures is frequently explained by selection acting at individual to generational timescales, but interspecific differences predicted by such models (e.g., female choice or sexual conflict) are often untestable in a phylogenetic framework. An alternative approach focuses on clade- or function-specific hypotheses that predict evolutionary patterns in terms neutral to specific modes of sexual selection. Here we test a hypothesis that diversity of reproductive structures in leiobunine harvestmen (daddy longlegs) of eastern North America reflects two sexually coevolved but non-overlapping precopulatory strategies, a primitive solicitous strategy (females enticed by penis-associated nuptial gifts), and a multiply derived antagonistic strategy (penis exerts mechanical force against armature of the female pregenital opening). Predictions of sexual coevolution and fidelity to precopulatory categories were tested using 10 continuously varying functional traits from 28 species. Multivariate analyses corroborated sexual coevolution but failed to partition species by precopulatory strategy, with multiple methods placing species along a spectrum of mechanical antagonistic potential. These findings suggest that precopulatory features within species reflect different co-occurring levels of solicitation and antagonism, and that gradualistic evolutionary pathways exist between extreme strategies. The ability to quantify antagonistic potential of precopulatory structures invites comparison with ecological variables that may promote evolutionary shifts in precopulatory strategies. PMID:26352413

Biomechanical Diversity of Mating Structures among Harvestmen Species Is Consistent with a Spectrum of Precopulatory Strategies.

PubMed

Burns, Mercedes; Shultz, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Diversity in reproductive structures is frequently explained by selection acting at individual to generational timescales, but interspecific differences predicted by such models (e.g., female choice or sexual conflict) are often untestable in a phylogenetic framework. An alternative approach focuses on clade- or function-specific hypotheses that predict evolutionary patterns in terms neutral to specific modes of sexual selection. Here we test a hypothesis that diversity of reproductive structures in leiobunine harvestmen (daddy longlegs) of eastern North America reflects two sexually coevolved but non-overlapping precopulatory strategies, a primitive solicitous strategy (females enticed by penis-associated nuptial gifts), and a multiply derived antagonistic strategy (penis exerts mechanical force against armature of the female pregenital opening). Predictions of sexual coevolution and fidelity to precopulatory categories were tested using 10 continuously varying functional traits from 28 species. Multivariate analyses corroborated sexual coevolution but failed to partition species by precopulatory strategy, with multiple methods placing species along a spectrum of mechanical antagonistic potential. These findings suggest that precopulatory features within species reflect different co-occurring levels of solicitation and antagonism, and that gradualistic evolutionary pathways exist between extreme strategies. The ability to quantify antagonistic potential of precopulatory structures invites comparison with ecological variables that may promote evolutionary shifts in precopulatory strategies.

The evolutionary ecology of molecular replicators

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

By reasonable criteria, life on the Earth consists mainly of molecular replicators. These include viruses, transposons, transpovirons, coviruses and many more, with continuous new discoveries like Sputnik Virophage. Their study is inherently multidisciplinary, spanning microbiology, genetics, immunology and evolutionary theory, and the current view is that taking a unified approach has great power and promise. We support this with a new, unified, model of their evolutionary ecology, using contemporary evolutionary theory coupling the Price equation with game theory, studying the consequences of the molecular replicators' promiscuous use of each others' gene products for their natural history and evolutionary ecology. Even at this simple expository level, we can make a firm prediction of a new class of replicators exploiting viruses such as lentiviruses like SIVs, a family which includes HIV: these have been explicitly stated in the primary literature to be non-existent. Closely connected to this departure is the view that multicellular organism immunology is more about the management of chronic infections rather than the elimination of acute ones and new understandings emerging are changing our view of the kind of theatre we ourselves provide for the evolutionary play of molecular replicators. This study adds molecular replicators to bacteria in the emerging field of sociomicrobiology. PMID:27853598

The evolutionary ecology of molecular replicators.

PubMed

Nee, Sean

2016-08-01

By reasonable criteria, life on the Earth consists mainly of molecular replicators. These include viruses, transposons, transpovirons, coviruses and many more, with continuous new discoveries like Sputnik Virophage. Their study is inherently multidisciplinary, spanning microbiology, genetics, immunology and evolutionary theory, and the current view is that taking a unified approach has great power and promise. We support this with a new, unified, model of their evolutionary ecology, using contemporary evolutionary theory coupling the Price equation with game theory, studying the consequences of the molecular replicators' promiscuous use of each others' gene products for their natural history and evolutionary ecology. Even at this simple expository level, we can make a firm prediction of a new class of replicators exploiting viruses such as lentiviruses like SIVs, a family which includes HIV: these have been explicitly stated in the primary literature to be non-existent. Closely connected to this departure is the view that multicellular organism immunology is more about the management of chronic infections rather than the elimination of acute ones and new understandings emerging are changing our view of the kind of theatre we ourselves provide for the evolutionary play of molecular replicators. This study adds molecular replicators to bacteria in the emerging field of sociomicrobiology.

Development of Aspen: A microanalytic simulation model of the US economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pryor, R.J.; Basu, N.; Quint, T.

1996-02-01

This report describes the development of an agent-based microanalytic simulation model of the US economy. The microsimulation model capitalizes on recent technological advances in evolutionary learning and parallel computing. Results are reported for a test problem that was run using the model. The test results demonstrate the model`s ability to predict business-like cycles in an economy where prices and inventories are allowed to vary. Since most economic forecasting models have difficulty predicting any kind of cyclic behavior. These results show the potential of microanalytic simulation models to improve economic policy analysis and to provide new insights into underlying economic principles.more » Work already has begun on a more detailed model.« less

The calculation and publication of a grid of line-blanketed model stellar atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, E. H.

1972-01-01

The luminosity, mass, and elemental abundances, as well as other properties of each star are studied in order to locate them in an evolutionary pattern. A method for determining the flux, gravity, and abundances at the stellar surface is the construction of theoretical stellar atmospheric models that predict the observed energy distribution and detailed stellar spectrum.

Toward an evolutionary-predictive foundation for creativity : Commentary on "Human creativity, evolutionary algorithms, and predictive representations: The mechanics of thought trials" by Arne Dietrich and Hilde Haider, 2014 (Accepted pending minor revisions for publication in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review).

PubMed

Gabora, Liane; Kauffman, Stuart

2016-04-01

Dietrich and Haider (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21 (5), 897-915, 2014) justify their integrative framework for creativity founded on evolutionary theory and prediction research on the grounds that "theories and approaches guiding empirical research on creativity have not been supported by the neuroimaging evidence." Although this justification is controversial, the general direction holds promise. This commentary clarifies points of disagreement and unresolved issues, and addresses mis-applications of evolutionary theory that lead the authors to adopt a Darwinian (versus Lamarckian) approach. To say that creativity is Darwinian is not to say that it consists of variation plus selection - in the everyday sense of the term - as the authors imply; it is to say that evolution is occurring because selection is affecting the distribution of randomly generated heritable variation across generations. In creative thought the distribution of variants is not key, i.e., one is not inclined toward idea A because 60 % of one's candidate ideas are variants of A while only 40 % are variants of B; one is inclined toward whichever seems best. The authors concede that creative variation is partly directed; however, the greater the extent to which variants are generated non-randomly, the greater the extent to which the distribution of variants can reflect not selection but the initial generation bias. Since each thought in a creative process can alter the selective criteria against which the next is evaluated, there is no demarcation into generations as assumed in a Darwinian model. We address the authors' claim that reduced variability and individuality are more characteristic of Lamarckism than Darwinian evolution, and note that a Lamarckian approach to creativity has addressed the challenge of modeling the emergent features associated with insight.

InterEvDock2: an expanded server for protein docking using evolutionary and biological information from homology models and multimeric inputs.

PubMed

Quignot, Chloé; Rey, Julien; Yu, Jinchao; Tufféry, Pierre; Guerois, Raphaël; Andreani, Jessica

2018-05-08

Computational protein docking is a powerful strategy to predict structures of protein-protein interactions and provides crucial insights for the functional characterization of macromolecular cross-talks. We previously developed InterEvDock, a server for ab initio protein docking based on rigid-body sampling followed by consensus scoring using physics-based and statistical potentials, including the InterEvScore function specifically developed to incorporate co-evolutionary information in docking. InterEvDock2 is a major evolution of InterEvDock which allows users to submit input sequences - not only structures - and multimeric inputs and to specify constraints for the pairwise docking process based on previous knowledge about the interaction. For this purpose, we added modules in InterEvDock2 for automatic template search and comparative modeling of the input proteins. The InterEvDock2 pipeline was benchmarked on 812 complexes for which unbound homology models of the two partners and co-evolutionary information are available in the PPI4DOCK database. InterEvDock2 identified a correct model among the top 10 consensus in 29% of these cases (compared to 15-24% for individual scoring functions) and at least one correct interface residue among 10 predicted in 91% of these cases. InterEvDock2 is thus a unique protein docking server, designed to be useful for the experimental biology community. The InterEvDock2 web interface is available at http://bioserv.rpbs.univ-paris-diderot.fr/services/InterEvDock2/.

Testing Models of Stellar Structure and Evolution I. Comparison with Detached Eclipsing Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Burgo, C.; Allende Prieto, C.

2018-05-01

We present the results of an analysis aimed at testing the accuracy and precision of the PARSEC v1.2S library of stellar evolution models, combined with a Bayesian approach, to infer stellar parameters. We mainly employ the online DEBCat catalogue by Southworth, a compilation of detached eclipsing binary systems with published measurements of masses and radii to ˜ 2 per cent precision. We select a sample of 318 binary components, with masses between 0.10 and 14.5 solar units, and distances between 1.3 pc and ˜ 8 kpc for Galactic objects and ˜ 44-68 kpc for the extragalactic ones. The Bayesian analysis applied takes on input effective temperature, radius, and [Fe/H], and their uncertainties, returning theoretical predictions for other stellar parameters. From the comparison with dynamical masses, we conclude inferred masses are precisely derived for stars on the main-sequence and in the core-helium-burning phase, with respective uncertainties of 4 per cent and 7 per cent, on average. Subgiants and red giants masses are predicted within 14 per cent, and early asymptotic giant branch stars within 24 per cent. These results are helpful to further improve the models, in particular for advanced evolutionary stages for which our understanding is limited. We obtain distances and ages for the binary systems and compare them, whenever possible, with precise literature estimates, finding excellent agreement. We discuss evolutionary effects and the challenges associated with the inference of stellar ages from evolutionary models. We also provide useful polynomial fittings to theoretical zero-age main-sequence relations.

Comparison of the theoretical and real-world evolutionary potential of a genetic circuit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razo-Mejia, M.; Boedicker, J. Q.; Jones, D.; DeLuna, A.; Kinney, J. B.; Phillips, R.

2014-04-01

With the development of next-generation sequencing technologies, many large scale experimental efforts aim to map genotypic variability among individuals. This natural variability in populations fuels many fundamental biological processes, ranging from evolutionary adaptation and speciation to the spread of genetic diseases and drug resistance. An interesting and important component of this variability is present within the regulatory regions of genes. As these regions evolve, accumulated mutations lead to modulation of gene expression, which may have consequences for the phenotype. A simple model system where the link between genetic variability, gene regulation and function can be studied in detail is missing. In this article we develop a model to explore how the sequence of the wild-type lac promoter dictates the fold-change in gene expression. The model combines single-base pair resolution maps of transcription factor and RNA polymerase binding energies with a comprehensive thermodynamic model of gene regulation. The model was validated by predicting and then measuring the variability of lac operon regulation in a collection of natural isolates. We then implement the model to analyze the sensitivity of the promoter sequence to the regulatory output, and predict the potential for regulation to evolve due to point mutations in the promoter region.

Integrating Evolutionary Game Theory into Mechanistic Genotype-Phenotype Mapping.

PubMed

Zhu, Xuli; Jiang, Libo; Ye, Meixia; Sun, Lidan; Gragnoli, Claudia; Wu, Rongling

2016-05-01

Natural selection has shaped the evolution of organisms toward optimizing their structural and functional design. However, how this universal principle can enhance genotype-phenotype mapping of quantitative traits has remained unexplored. Here we show that the integration of this principle and functional mapping through evolutionary game theory gains new insight into the genetic architecture of complex traits. By viewing phenotype formation as an evolutionary system, we formulate mathematical equations to model the ecological mechanisms that drive the interaction and coordination of its constituent components toward population dynamics and stability. Functional mapping provides a procedure for estimating the genetic parameters that specify the dynamic relationship of competition and cooperation and predicting how genes mediate the evolution of this relationship during trait formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic change and rates of cladogenesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Avise, J.C.; Ayala, F.J.

1975-12-01

Models are introduced which predict ratios of mean levels of genetic divergence in species-rich versus species-poor phylads under two competing assumptions: (1) genetic differentiation is a function of time, unrelated to the number of cladogenetic events and (2) genetic differentiation is proportional to the number of speciation events in the group. The models are simple, general, and biologically real, but not precise. They lead to qualitatively distinct predictions about levels of genetic divergence depending upon the relationship between rates of speciation and amount of genetic change. When genetic distance between species is a function of time, mean genetic distances inmore » speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age are very similar. On the contrary, when genetic distance is a function of the number of speciations in the history of a phylad, the ratio of mean genetic distances separating species in speciose versus depauperate phylads is greater than one, and increases rapidly as the frequency of speciations in one group relative to the other increases. The models may be tested with data from natural populations to assess (1) possible correlations between rates of anagenesis and cladogenesis and (2) the amount of genetic differentiation accompanying the speciation process. The data collected in electrophoretic surveys and other kinds of studies can be used to test the predictions of the models. For this purpose genetic distances need to be measured in speciose and depauperate phylads of equal evolutionary age. The limited information presently available agrees better with the model predicting that genetic change is primarily a function of time, and is not correlated with rates of speciation. Further testing of the models is, however, required before firm conclusions can be drawn. (auth)« less

Biophysics of protein evolution and evolutionary protein biophysics

PubMed Central

Sikosek, Tobias; Chan, Hue Sun

2014-01-01

The study of molecular evolution at the level of protein-coding genes often entails comparing large datasets of sequences to infer their evolutionary relationships. Despite the importance of a protein's structure and conformational dynamics to its function and thus its fitness, common phylogenetic methods embody minimal biophysical knowledge of proteins. To underscore the biophysical constraints on natural selection, we survey effects of protein mutations, highlighting the physical basis for marginal stability of natural globular proteins and how requirement for kinetic stability and avoidance of misfolding and misinteractions might have affected protein evolution. The biophysical underpinnings of these effects have been addressed by models with an explicit coarse-grained spatial representation of the polypeptide chain. Sequence–structure mappings based on such models are powerful conceptual tools that rationalize mutational robustness, evolvability, epistasis, promiscuous function performed by ‘hidden’ conformational states, resolution of adaptive conflicts and conformational switches in the evolution from one protein fold to another. Recently, protein biophysics has been applied to derive more accurate evolutionary accounts of sequence data. Methods have also been developed to exploit sequence-based evolutionary information to predict biophysical behaviours of proteins. The success of these approaches demonstrates a deep synergy between the fields of protein biophysics and protein evolution. PMID:25165599

Entraining IDyOT: Timing in the Information Dynamics of Thinking

PubMed Central

Forth, Jamie; Agres, Kat; Purver, Matthew; Wiggins, Geraint A.

2016-01-01

We present a novel hypothetical account of entrainment in music and language, in context of the Information Dynamics of Thinking model, IDyOT. The extended model affords an alternative view of entrainment, and its companion term, pulse, from earlier accounts. The model is based on hierarchical, statistical prediction, modeling expectations of both what an event will be and when it will happen. As such, it constitutes a kind of predictive coding, with a particular novel hypothetical implementation. Here, we focus on the model's mechanism for predicting when a perceptual event will happen, given an existing sequence of past events, which may be musical or linguistic. We propose a range of tests to validate or falsify the model, at various different levels of abstraction, and argue that computational modeling in general, and this model in particular, can offer a means of providing limited but useful evidence for evolutionary hypotheses. PMID:27803682

Life history theory and breast cancer risk: methodological and theoretical challenges: Response to "Is estrogen receptor negative breast cancer risk associated with a fast life history strategy?".

PubMed

Aktipis, Athena

2016-01-01

In a meta-analysis published by myself and co-authors, we report differences in the life history risk factors for estrogen receptor negative (ER-) and estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancers. Our meta-analysis did not find the association of ER- breast cancer risk with fast life history characteristics that Hidaka and Boddy suggest in their response to our article. There are a number of possible explanations for the differences between their conclusions and the conclusions we drew from our meta-analysis, including limitations of our meta-analysis and methodological challenges in measuring and categorizing estrogen receptor status. These challenges, along with the association of ER+ breast cancer with slow life history characteristics, may make it challenging to find a clear signal of ER- breast cancer with fast life history characteristics, even if that relationship does exist. The contradictory results regarding breast cancer risk and life history characteristics illustrate a more general challenge in evolutionary medicine: often different sub-theories in evolutionary biology make contradictory predictions about disease risk. In this case, life history models predict that breast cancer risk should increase with faster life history characteristics, while the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis predicts that breast cancer risk should increase with delayed reproduction. Whether life history tradeoffs contribute to ER- breast cancer is still an open question, but current models and several lines of evidence suggest that it is a possibility. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Prediction of Layer Thickness in Molten Borax Bath with Genetic Evolutionary Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylan, Fatih

2011-04-01

In this study, the vanadium carbide coating in molten borax bath process is modeled by evolutionary genetic programming (GEP) with bath composition (borax percentage, ferro vanadium (Fe-V) percentage, boric acid percentage), bath temperature, immersion time, and layer thickness data. Five inputs and one output data exist in the model. The percentage of borax, Fe-V, and boric acid, temperature, and immersion time parameters are used as input data and the layer thickness value is used as output data. For selected bath components, immersion time, and temperature variables, the layer thicknesses are derived from the mathematical expression. The results of the mathematical expressions are compared to that of experimental data; it is determined that the derived mathematical expression has an accuracy of 89%.

Early stress and human behavioral development: emerging evolutionary perspectives.

PubMed

Del Giudice, M

2014-08-01

Stress experienced early in life exerts a powerful, lasting influence on development. Converging empirical findings show that stressful experiences become deeply embedded in the child's neurobiology, with an astonishing range of long-term effects on cognition, emotion, and behavior. In contrast with the prevailing view that such effects are the maladaptive outcomes of 'toxic' stress, adaptive models regard them as manifestations of evolved developmental plasticity. In this paper, I offer a brief introduction to adaptive models of early stress and human behavioral development, with emphasis on recent theoretical contributions and emerging concepts in the field. I begin by contrasting dysregulation models of early stress with their adaptive counterparts; I then introduce life history theory as a unifying framework, and review recent work on predictive adaptive responses (PARs) in human life history development. In particular, I discuss the distinction between forecasting the future state of the environment (external prediction) and forecasting the future state of the organism (internal prediction). Next, I present the adaptive calibration model, an integrative model of individual differences in stress responsivity based on life history concepts. I conclude by examining how maternal-fetal conflict may shape the physiology of prenatal stress and its adaptive and maladaptive effects on postnatal development. In total, I aim to show how theoretical work from evolutionary biology is reshaping the way we think about the role of stress in human development, and provide researchers with an up-to-date conceptual map of this fascinating and rapidly evolving field.

New PARSEC data base of α-enhanced stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones - I. Calibration with 47 Tuc (NGC 104) and the improvement on RGB bump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiaoting; Bressan, Alessandro; Marigo, Paola; Girardi, Léo; Montalbán, Josefina; Chen, Yang; Nanni, Ambra

2018-05-01

Precise studies on the Galactic bulge, globular cluster, Galactic halo, and Galactic thick disc require stellar models with α enhancement and various values of helium content. These models are also important for extra-Galactic population synthesis studies. For this purpose, we complement the existing PARSEC models, which are based on the solar partition of heavy elements, with α-enhanced partitions. We collect detailed measurements on the metal mixture and helium abundance for the two populations of 47 Tuc (NGC 104) from the literature, and calculate stellar tracks and isochrones with these α-enhanced compositions. By fitting the precise colour-magnitude diagram with HST ACS/WFC data, from low main sequence till horizontal branch (HB), we calibrate some free parameters that are important for the evolution of low mass stars like the mixing at the bottom of the convective envelope. This new calibration significantly improves the prediction of the red giant branch bump (RGBB) brightness. Comparison with the observed RGB and HB luminosity functions also shows that the evolutionary lifetimes are correctly predicted. As a further result of this calibration process, we derive the age, distance modulus, reddening, and the RGB mass-loss for 47 Tuc. We apply the new calibration and α-enhanced mixtures of the two 47 Tuc populations ([α/Fe] ˜ 0.4 and 0.2) to other metallicities. The new models reproduce the RGB bump observations much better than previous models. This new PARSEC data base, with the newly updated α-enhanced stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones, will also be a part of the new stellar products for Gaia.

Colonization in North American Arid Lands: The Journey of Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata) Revealed by Multilocus Molecular Data and Packrat Midden Fossil Remains

PubMed Central

Angulo, Diego F.; Amarilla, Leonardo D.; Anton, Ana M.; Sosa, Victoria

2017-01-01

Here we conduct research to understand the evolutionary history of a shrubby species known as Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata), an endemic species to the Chihuahuan Desert. We identify genetic signatures based on plastid DNA and AFLP markers and perform niche modelling and spatial connectivity analyses as well as niche modelling based on records in packrats to elucidate whether orogenic events such as mountain range uplift in the Miocene or the contraction/expansion dynamics of vegetation in response to climate oscillations in the Pliocene/Pleistocene had an effect on evolutionary processes in Agarito. Our results of current niche modelling and palaeomodelling showed that the area currently occupied by Berberis trifoliolata is substantially larger than it was during the Last Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Agarito was probably confined to small areas in the Northeastern and gradually expanded its distribution just after the Last Glacial Maximum when the weather in the Chihuahuan Desert and adjacent regions became progressively warmer and drier. The most contracted range was predicted for the Interglacial period. Populations remained in stable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded at the beginning of the Holocene. Most genetic variation occured in populations from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Two groups of haplotypes were identified: the Mexican Plateau populations and certain Northeastern populations. Haplogroups were spatially connected during the Last Glacial Maximum and separated during interglacial periods. The most important prediction of packrat middens palaeomodelling lies in the Mexican Plateau, a finding congruent with current and past niche modelling predictions for agarito and genetic results. Our results corroborate that these climate changes in the Pliocene/Pleistocene affected the evolutionary history of agarito. The journey of agarito in the Chihuahuan Desert has been dynamic, expanding and contracting its distribution range and currently occupying the largest area in its history. PMID:28146559

Parallel evolution of image processing tools for multispectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, Neal R.; Brumby, Steven P.; Perkins, Simon J.; Porter, Reid B.; Theiler, James P.; Young, Aaron C.; Szymanski, John J.; Bloch, Jeffrey J.

2000-11-01

We describe the implementation and performance of a parallel, hybrid evolutionary-algorithm-based system, which optimizes image processing tools for feature-finding tasks in multi-spectral imagery (MSI) data sets. Our system uses an integrated spatio-spectral approach and is capable of combining suitably-registered data from different sensors. We investigate the speed-up obtained by parallelization of the evolutionary process via multiple processors (a workstation cluster) and develop a model for prediction of run-times for different numbers of processors. We demonstrate our system on Landsat Thematic Mapper MSI , covering the recent Cerro Grande fire at Los Alamos, NM, USA.

Evolutionary Trade-Off between Secondary Sexual Traits and Ejaculates.

PubMed

Simmons, Leigh W; Lüpold, Stefan; Fitzpatrick, John L

2017-12-01

Recent theoretical models predict that the evolutionary diversification of the weapons and ornaments of pre-mating sexual selection should be influenced by trade-offs with male expenditure on ejaculates. However, the patterns of association between secondary sexual traits and ejaculate expenditure are frequently inconsistent in their support of this prediction. We show why consideration of additional life-history, ecological, and mating-system variables is crucial for the interpretation of associations between secondary sexual traits and ejaculate production. Incorporation of these 'missing variables' provides evidence that interactions between pre- and post-mating sexual selection can underlie broad patterns of diversification in male weapons and ornaments. We call for more experimental and genetic approaches to uncover trade-offs, as well as for studies that consider the costs of mate-searching. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of aging: individual life history trade-offs and population heterogeneity account for mortality patterns across species.

PubMed

Le Cunff, Y; Baudisch, A; Pakdaman, K

2014-08-01

A broad range of mortality patterns has been documented across species, some even including decreasing mortality over age. Whether there exist a common denominator to explain both similarities and differences in these mortality patterns remains an open question. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that universal intracellular trade-offs between maintenance/lifespan and reproduction would drive aging across species. The disposable soma theory has provided numerous insights concerning aging processes in single individuals. Yet, which specific population mortality patterns it can lead to is still largely unexplored. In this article, we propose a model exploring the mortality patterns which emerge from an evolutionary process including only the disposable soma theory core principles. We adapt a well-known model of genomic evolution to show that mortality curves producing a kink or mid-life plateaus derive from a common minimal evolutionary framework. These mortality shapes qualitatively correspond to those of Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, medflies, yeasts and humans. Species evolved in silico especially differ in their population diversity of maintenance strategies, which itself emerges as an adaptation to the environment over generations. Based on this integrative framework, we also derive predictions and interpretations concerning the effects of diet changes and heat-shock treatments on mortality patterns. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Effects of complex life cycles on genetic diversity: cyclical parthenogenesis.

PubMed

Rouger, R; Reichel, K; Malrieu, F; Masson, J P; Stoeckel, S

2016-11-01

Neutral patterns of population genetic diversity in species with complex life cycles are difficult to anticipate. Cyclical parthenogenesis (CP), in which organisms undergo several rounds of clonal reproduction followed by a sexual event, is one such life cycle. Many species, including crop pests (aphids), human parasites (trematodes) or models used in evolutionary science (Daphnia), are cyclical parthenogens. It is therefore crucial to understand the impact of such a life cycle on neutral genetic diversity. In this paper, we describe distributions of genetic diversity under conditions of CP with various clonal phase lengths. Using a Markov chain model of CP for a single locus and individual-based simulations for two loci, our analysis first demonstrates that strong departures from full sexuality are observed after only a few generations of clonality. The convergence towards predictions made under conditions of full clonality during the clonal phase depends on the balance between mutations and genetic drift. Second, the sexual event of CP usually resets the genetic diversity at a single locus towards predictions made under full sexuality. However, this single recombination event is insufficient to reshuffle gametic phases towards full-sexuality predictions. Finally, for similar levels of clonality, CP and acyclic partial clonality (wherein a fixed proportion of individuals are clonally produced within each generation) differentially affect the distribution of genetic diversity. Overall, this work provides solid predictions of neutral genetic diversity that may serve as a null model in detecting the action of common evolutionary or demographic processes in cyclical parthenogens (for example, selection or bottlenecks).

Adaptive Patterns of Stress Responsivity: A Preliminary Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Del Giudice, Marco; Hinnant, J. Benjamin; Ellis, Bruce J.; El-Sheikh, Mona

2012-01-01

The adaptive calibration model (ACM) is an evolutionary-developmental theory of individual differences in stress responsivity. In this article, we tested some key predictions of the ACM in a middle childhood sample (N = 256). Measures of autonomic nervous system activity across the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches validated the 4-pattern…

Crystal plasticity assisted prediction on the yield locus evolution and forming limit curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Junhe; Liu, Wenqi; Shen, Fuhui; Münstermann, Sebastian

2017-10-01

The aim of this study is to predict the plastic anisotropy evolution and its associated forming limit curves of bcc steels purely based on their microstructural features by establishing an integrated multiscale modelling approach. Crystal plasticity models are employed to describe the micro deformation mechanism and correlate the microstructure with mechanical behaviour on micro and mesoscale. Virtual laboratory is performed considering the statistical information of the microstructure, which serves as the input for the phenomenological plasticity model on the macroscale. For both scales, the microstructure evolution induced evolving features, such as the anisotropic hardening, r-value and yield locus evolution are seamlessly integrated. The predicted plasticity behaviour by the numerical simulations are compared with experiments. These evolutionary features of the material deformation behaviour are eventually considered for the prediction of formability.

The Langley Research Center CSI phase-0 evolutionary model testbed-design and experimental results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belvin, W. K.; Horta, Lucas G.; Elliott, K. B.

1991-01-01

A testbed for the development of Controls Structures Interaction (CSI) technology is described. The design philosophy, capabilities, and early experimental results are presented to introduce some of the ongoing CSI research at NASA-Langley. The testbed, referred to as the Phase 0 version of the CSI Evolutionary model (CEM), is the first stage of model complexity designed to show the benefits of CSI technology and to identify weaknesses in current capabilities. Early closed loop test results have shown non-model based controllers can provide an order of magnitude increase in damping in the first few flexible vibration modes. Model based controllers for higher performance will need to be robust to model uncertainty as verified by System ID tests. Data are presented that show finite element model predictions of frequency differ from those obtained from tests. Plans are also presented for evolution of the CEM to study integrated controller and structure design as well as multiple payload dynamics.

Exploring the evolutionary mechanism of complex supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Sun, Shiwei; Liu, Han

2018-01-01

A new evolutionary model is proposed to describe the characteristics and evolution pattern of supply chain systems using evolving hypergraphs, in which nodes represent enterprise entities while hyperedges represent the relationships among diverse trades. The nodes arrive at the system in accordance with a Poisson process, with the evolving process incorporating the addition of new nodes, linking of old nodes, and rewiring of links. Grounded in the Poisson process theory and continuum theory, the stationary average hyperdegree distribution is shown to follow a shifted power law (SPL), and the theoretical predictions are consistent with the results of numerical simulations. Testing the impact of parameters on the model yields a positive correlation between hyperdegree and degree. The model also uncovers macro characteristics of the relationships among enterprises due to the microscopic interactions among individuals.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

2013-03-01

Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

Evolutionary speed of species invasions.

PubMed

García-Ramos, Gisela; Rodríguez, Diego

2002-04-01

Successful invasion may depend of the capacity of a species to adjust genetically to a spatially varying environment. This research modeled a species invasion by examining the interaction between a quantitative genetic trait and population density. It assumed: (I) a quantitative genetic trait describes the adaptation of an individual to its local ecological conditions; (2) populations far from the local optimum grow more slowly than those near the optimum; and (3) the evolution of a trait depends on local population density, because differences in local population densities cause asymmetrical gene flow. This genetics-density interaction determined the propagation speed of populations. Numerical simulations showed that populations spread by advancing as two synchronic traveling waves, one for population density and one for trait adaptation. The form of the density wave was a step front that advances homogenizing populations at their carrying capacity; the adaptation wave was a curve with finite slope that homogenizes populations at full adaptation. The largest speed of population expansion, for a dimensionless analysis, corresponded to an almost homogeneous spatial environment when this model approached an ecological description such as the Fisher-Skellam's model. A large genetic response also favored faster speeds. Evolutionary speeds, in a natural scale, showed a wide range of rates that were also slower compared to models that only consider demographics. This evolutionary speed increased with high heritability, strong stabilizing selection, and high intrinsic growth rate. It decreased for steeper environmental gradients. Also indicated was an optimal dispersal rate over which evolutionary speed declined. This is expected because dispersal moves individuals further, but homogenizes populations genetically, making them maladapted. The evolutionary speed was compared to observed data. Furthermore, a moderate increase in the speed of expansion was predicted for ecological changes related to global warming.

Evolution of complex organic molecules in hot molecular cores. Synthetic spectra at (sub-)mm wavebands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, R.; Schilke, P.; Stéphan, G.; Bergin, E.; Möller, T.; Schmiedeke, A.; Zernickel, A.

2015-03-01

Context. Hot molecular cores (HMCs) are intermediate stages of high-mass star formation and are also known for their rich chemical reservoirs and emission line spectra at (sub-)mm wavebands. Complex organic molecules (COMs) such as methanol (CH3OH), ethanol (C2H5OH), dimethyl ether (CH3OCH3), and methyl formate (HCOOCH3) produce most of these observed lines. The observed spectral feature of HMCs such as total number of emission lines and associated line intensities are also found to vary with evolutionary stages. Aims: We aim to investigate the spectral evolution of these COMs to explore the initial evolutionary stages of high-mass star formation including HMCs. Methods: We developed various 3D models for HMCs guided by the evolutionary scenarios proposed by recent empirical and modeling studies. We then investigated the spatio-temporal variation of temperature and molecular abundances in HMCs by consistently coupling gas-grain chemical evolution with radiative transfer calculations. We explored the effects of varying physical conditions on molecular abundances including density distribution and luminosity evolution of the central protostar(s) among other parameters. Finally, we simulated the synthetic spectra for these models at different evolutionary timescales to compare with observations. Results: Temperature has a profound effect on the formation of COMs through the depletion and diffusion on grain surface to desorption and further gas-phase processing. The time-dependent temperature structure of the hot core models provides a realistic framework for investigating the spatial variation of ice mantle evaporation as a function of evolutionary timescales. We find that a slightly higher value (15 K) than the canonical dark cloud temperature (10 K) provides a more productive environment for COM formation on grain surface. With increasing protostellar luminosity, the water ice evaporation font (~100 K) expands and the spatial distribution of gas phase abundances of these COMs also spreads out. We calculated the temporal variation of the radial profiles of these COMs for different hot core models. These profiles resemble the so-called jump profiles with relative abundances higher than 10-9 within the evaporation font will furthermore be useful to model the observed spectra of hot cores. We present the simulated spectra of these COMs for different hot core models at various evolutionary timescales. A qualitative comparison of the simulated and observed spectra suggests that these self-consistent hot core models can reproduce the notable trends in hot core spectral variation within the typical hot core timescales of 105 year. These models predict that the spatial distribution of various emission line maps will also expand with evolutionary time; this feature can be used to constrain the relative desorption energies of the molecules that mainly form on the grain surface and return to the gas phase via thermal desorption. The detailed modeling of the thermal structure of hot cores with similar masses along with the characterization of the desorption energies of different molecules can be used to constrain the luminosity evolution of the central protostars. The model predictions can be compared with high resolution observation that can probe scales of a few thousand AU in high-mass star forming regions such as from Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). We used a spectral fitting method to analyze the simulated spectra and find that it significantly underestimates some of the physical parameters such as temperature. The coupling of chemical evolution with radiative transfer models will be particularly useful to decipher the physical structure of hot cores and also to constrain the initial evolutionary stages of high-mass star formation. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Phylogeny, Traits, and Biodiversity of a Neotropical Bat Assemblage: Close Relatives Show Similar Responses to Local Deforestation.

PubMed

Frank, Hannah K; Frishkoff, Luke O; Mendenhall, Chase D; Daily, Gretchen C; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2017-08-01

If species' evolutionary pasts predetermine their responses to evolutionarily novel stressors, then phylogeny could predict species survival in an increasingly human-dominated world. To understand the role of phylogenetic relatedness in structuring responses to rapid environmental change, we focused on assemblages of Neotropical bats, an ecologically diverse and functionally important group. We examined how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity shift between tropical forest and farmland. We then explored the importance of evolutionary history by ascertaining whether close relatives share similar responses to environmental change and which species traits might mediate these trends. We analyzed a 5-year data set (5,011 captures) from 18 sites in a countryside landscape in southern Costa Rica using statistical models that account and correct for imperfect detection of species across sites, spatial autocorrelation, and consideration of spatial scale. Taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity decreased with deforestation, and assemblages became more phylogenetically clustered. Species' responses to deforestation were strongly phylogenetically correlated. Body mass and absolute wing loading explained a substantial portion of species variation in species' habitat preferences, likely related to these traits' influence on maneuverability in cluttered forest environments. Our findings highlight the role that evolutionary history plays in determining which species will survive human impacts and the need to consider diversity metrics, evolutionary history, and traits together when making predictions about species persistence for conservation or ecosystem functioning.

WORMHOLE: Novel Least Diverged Ortholog Prediction through Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Sutphin, George L.; Mahoney, J. Matthew; Sheppard, Keith; Walton, David O.; Korstanje, Ron

2016-01-01

The rapid advancement of technology in genomics and targeted genetic manipulation has made comparative biology an increasingly prominent strategy to model human disease processes. Predicting orthology relationships between species is a vital component of comparative biology. Dozens of strategies for predicting orthologs have been developed using combinations of gene and protein sequence, phylogenetic history, and functional interaction with progressively increasing accuracy. A relatively new class of orthology prediction strategies combines aspects of multiple methods into meta-tools, resulting in improved prediction performance. Here we present WORMHOLE, a novel ortholog prediction meta-tool that applies machine learning to integrate 17 distinct ortholog prediction algorithms to identify novel least diverged orthologs (LDOs) between 6 eukaryotic species—humans, mice, zebrafish, fruit flies, nematodes, and budding yeast. Machine learning allows WORMHOLE to intelligently incorporate predictions from a wide-spectrum of strategies in order to form aggregate predictions of LDOs with high confidence. In this study we demonstrate the performance of WORMHOLE across each combination of query and target species. We show that WORMHOLE is particularly adept at improving LDO prediction performance between distantly related species, expanding the pool of LDOs while maintaining low evolutionary distance and a high level of functional relatedness between genes in LDO pairs. We present extensive validation, including cross-validated prediction of PANTHER LDOs and evaluation of evolutionary divergence and functional similarity, and discuss future applications of machine learning in ortholog prediction. A WORMHOLE web tool has been developed and is available at http://wormhole.jax.org/. PMID:27812085

WORMHOLE: Novel Least Diverged Ortholog Prediction through Machine Learning.

PubMed

Sutphin, George L; Mahoney, J Matthew; Sheppard, Keith; Walton, David O; Korstanje, Ron

2016-11-01

The rapid advancement of technology in genomics and targeted genetic manipulation has made comparative biology an increasingly prominent strategy to model human disease processes. Predicting orthology relationships between species is a vital component of comparative biology. Dozens of strategies for predicting orthologs have been developed using combinations of gene and protein sequence, phylogenetic history, and functional interaction with progressively increasing accuracy. A relatively new class of orthology prediction strategies combines aspects of multiple methods into meta-tools, resulting in improved prediction performance. Here we present WORMHOLE, a novel ortholog prediction meta-tool that applies machine learning to integrate 17 distinct ortholog prediction algorithms to identify novel least diverged orthologs (LDOs) between 6 eukaryotic species-humans, mice, zebrafish, fruit flies, nematodes, and budding yeast. Machine learning allows WORMHOLE to intelligently incorporate predictions from a wide-spectrum of strategies in order to form aggregate predictions of LDOs with high confidence. In this study we demonstrate the performance of WORMHOLE across each combination of query and target species. We show that WORMHOLE is particularly adept at improving LDO prediction performance between distantly related species, expanding the pool of LDOs while maintaining low evolutionary distance and a high level of functional relatedness between genes in LDO pairs. We present extensive validation, including cross-validated prediction of PANTHER LDOs and evaluation of evolutionary divergence and functional similarity, and discuss future applications of machine learning in ortholog prediction. A WORMHOLE web tool has been developed and is available at http://wormhole.jax.org/.

The Benchmark Ultracool Subdwarf HD 114762B: A Test of Low-metallicity Atmospheric and Evolutionary Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowler, Brendan P.; Liu, Michael C.; Cushing, Michael C.

2009-12-01

We present a near-infrared spectroscopic study of HD 114762B, the latest-type metal-poor companion discovered to date and the only ultracool subdwarf with a known metallicity, inferred from the primary star to be [Fe/H] = -0.7. We obtained a medium-resolution (R ~ 3800) Keck/OSIRIS 1.18-1.40 μm spectrum and a low-resolution (R ~ 150) Infrared Telescope Facility/SpeX 0.8-2.4 μm spectrum of HD 114762B to test atmospheric and evolutionary models for the first time in this mass-metallicity regime. HD 114762B exhibits spectral features common to both late-type dwarfs and subdwarfs, and we assign it a spectral type of d/sdM9 ± 1. We use a Monte Carlo technique to fit PHOENIX/GAIA synthetic spectra to the observations, accounting for the coarsely gridded nature of the models. Fits to the entire OSIRIS J-band and to the metal-sensitive J-band atomic absorption features (Fe I, K I, and Al I lines) yield model parameters that are most consistent with the metallicity of the primary star and the high surface gravity expected of old late-type objects. The effective temperatures and radii inferred from the model atmosphere fitting broadly agree with those predicted by the evolutionary models of Chabrier & Baraffe, and the model color-absolute magnitude relations accurately predict the metallicity of HD 114762B. We conclude that current low-mass, mildly metal-poor atmospheric and evolutionary models are mutually consistent for spectral fits to medium-resolution J-band spectra of HD 114762B, but are inconsistent for fits to low-resolution near-infrared spectra of mild subdwarfs. Finally, we develop a technique for estimating distances to ultracool subdwarfs based on a single near-infrared spectrum. We show that this "spectroscopic parallax" method enables distance estimates accurate to lsim10% of parallactic distances for ultracool subdwarfs near the hydrogen burning minimum mass. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation.

Social Media: Menagerie of Metrics

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-27

intelligence, an evolutionary algorithm (EA) is a subset of evolutionary computation, a generic population-based metaheuristic optimization algorithm . An EA...Cloning - 22 Animals were cloned to date; genetic algorithms can help prediction (e.g. “elitism” - attempts to ensure selection by including performers...28, 2010 Evolutionary Algorithm • Evolutionary algorithm From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Artificial intelligence portal In artificial

Evolutionary Perspectives on Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Psychiatric Disorders.

PubMed

Keller, Matthew C

2018-05-07

Evolutionary medicine uses evolutionary theory to help elucidate why humans are vulnerable to disease and disorders. I discuss two different types of evolutionary explanations that have been used to help understand human psychiatric disorders. First, a consistent finding is that psychiatric disorders are moderately to highly heritable, and many, such as schizophrenia, are also highly disabling and appear to decrease Darwinian fitness. Models used in evolutionary genetics to understand why genetic variation exists in fitness-related traits can be used to understand why risk alleles for psychiatric disorders persist in the population. The usual explanation for species-typical adaptations-natural selection-is less useful for understanding individual differences in genetic risk to disorders. Rather, two other types of models, mutation-selection-drift and balancing selection, offer frameworks for understanding why genetic variation in risk to psychiatric (and other) disorders exists, and each makes predictions that are now testable using whole-genome data. Second, species-typical capacities to mount reactions to negative events are likely to have been crafted by natural selection to minimize fitness loss. The pain reaction to tissue damage is almost certainly such an example, but it has been argued that the capacity to experience depressive symptoms such as sadness, anhedonia, crying, and fatigue in the face of adverse life situations may have been crafted by natural selection as well. I review the rationale and strength of evidence for this hypothesis. Evolutionary hypotheses of psychiatric disorders are important not only for offering explanations for why psychiatric disorders exist, but also for generating new, testable hypotheses and understanding how best to design studies and analyze data.

Ensemble Architecture for Prediction of Enzyme-ligand Binding Residues Using Evolutionary Information.

PubMed

Pai, Priyadarshini P; Dattatreya, Rohit Kadam; Mondal, Sukanta

2017-11-01

Enzyme interactions with ligands are crucial for various biochemical reactions governing life. Over many years attempts to identify these residues for biotechnological manipulations have been made using experimental and computational techniques. The computational approaches have gathered impetus with the accruing availability of sequence and structure information, broadly classified into template-based and de novo methods. One of the predominant de novo methods using sequence information involves application of biological properties for supervised machine learning. Here, we propose a support vector machines-based ensemble for prediction of protein-ligand interacting residues using one of the most important discriminative contributing properties in the interacting residue neighbourhood, i. e., evolutionary information in the form of position-specific- scoring matrix (PSSM). The study has been performed on a non-redundant dataset comprising of 9269 interacting and 91773 non-interacting residues for prediction model generation and further evaluation. Of the various PSSM-based models explored, the proposed method named ROBBY (pRediction Of Biologically relevant small molecule Binding residues on enzYmes) shows an accuracy of 84.0 %, Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.343 and F-measure of 39.0 % on 78 test enzymes. Further, scope of adding domain knowledge such as pocket information has also been investigated; results showed significant enhancement in method precision. Findings are hoped to boost the reliability of small-molecule ligand interaction prediction for enzyme applications and drug design. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R

2006-01-01

Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344

Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations can explain the full range of cooperative behaviors observed in the centipede game.

PubMed

Rand, David G; Nowak, Martin A

2012-05-07

Classical economic models make behavioral predictions based on the assumption that people are fully rational and care only about maximizing their own payoffs. Although this approach successfully explains human behavior in many situations, there is a wealth of experimental evidence demonstrating conditions where people deviate from the predictions of these models. One setting that has received particular attention is fixed length repeated games. Iterating a social dilemma can promote cooperation through direct reciprocity, even if it is common knowledge that all players are rational and self-interested. However, this is not the case if the length of the game is known to the players. In the final round, a rational player will defect, because there is no future to be concerned with. But if you know the other player will defect in the last round, then you should defect in the second to last round, and so on. This logic of backwards induction leads to immediate defection as the only rational (sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium) strategy. When people actually play such games, however, immediate defection is rare. Here we use evolutionary dynamics in finite populations to study the centipede game, which is designed to explore this issue of backwards induction. We make the following observation: since full cooperation can risk-dominate immediate defection in the centipede game, stochastic evolutionary dynamics can favor both delayed defection and even full cooperation. Furthermore, our evolutionary model can quantitatively reproduce human behavior from two experiments by fitting a single free parameter, which is the product of population size and selection intensity. Thus we provide evidence that people's cooperative behavior in fixed length games, which is often called 'irrational', may in fact be the favored outcome of natural selection. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toll-like receptor variation in the bottlenecked population of the Seychelles warbler: computer simulations see the 'ghost of selection past' and quantify the 'drift debt'.

PubMed

Gilroy, D L; Phillips, K P; Richardson, D S; van Oosterhout, C

2017-07-01

Balancing selection can maintain immunogenetic variation within host populations, but detecting its signal in a postbottlenecked population is challenging due to the potentially overriding effects of drift. Toll-like receptor genes (TLRs) play a fundamental role in vertebrate immune defence and are predicted to be under balancing selection. We previously characterized variation at TLR loci in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis), an endemic passerine that has undergone a historical bottleneck. Five of seven TLR loci were polymorphic, which is in sharp contrast to the low genomewide variation observed. However, standard population genetic statistical methods failed to detect a contemporary signature of selection at any TLR locus. We examined whether the observed TLR polymorphism could be explained by neutral evolution, simulating the population's demography in the software DIYABC. This showed that the posterior distributions of mutation rates had to be unrealistically high to explain the observed genetic variation. We then conducted simulations with an agent-based model using typical values for the mutation rate, which indicated that weak balancing selection has acted on the three TLR genes. The model was able to detect evidence of past selection elevating TLR polymorphism in the prebottleneck populations, but was unable to discern any effects of balancing selection in the contemporary population. Our results show drift is the overriding evolutionary force that has shaped TLR variation in the contemporary Seychelles warbler population, and the observed TLR polymorphisms might be merely the 'ghost of selection past'. Forecast models predict immunogenetic variation in this species will continue to be eroded in the absence of contemporary balancing selection. Such 'drift debt' occurs when a gene pool has not yet reached its new equilibrium level of polymorphism, and this loss could be an important threat to many recently bottlenecked populations. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Can Evolutionary Principles Explain Patterns of Family Violence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Archer, John

2013-01-01

The article's aim is to evaluate the application of the evolutionary principles of kin selection, reproductive value, and resource holding power to the understanding of family violence. The principles are described in relation to specific predictions and the mechanisms underlying these. Predictions are evaluated for physical violence perpetrated…

Evolutionary public health: introducing the concept.

PubMed

Wells, Jonathan C K; Nesse, Randolph M; Sear, Rebecca; Johnstone, Rufus A; Stearns, Stephen C

2017-07-29

The emerging discipline of evolutionary medicine is breaking new ground in understanding why people become ill. However, the value of evolutionary analyses of human physiology and behaviour is only beginning to be recognised in the field of public health. Core principles come from life history theory, which analyses the allocation of finite amounts of energy between four competing functions-maintenance, growth, reproduction, and defence. A central tenet of evolutionary theory is that organisms are selected to allocate energy and time to maximise reproductive success, rather than health or longevity. Ecological interactions that influence mortality risk, nutrient availability, and pathogen burden shape energy allocation strategies throughout the life course, thereby affecting diverse health outcomes. Public health interventions could improve their own effectiveness by incorporating an evolutionary perspective. In particular, evolutionary approaches offer new opportunities to address the complex challenges of global health, in which populations are differentially exposed to the metabolic consequences of poverty, high fertility, infectious diseases, and rapid changes in nutrition and lifestyle. The effect of specific interventions is predicted to depend on broader factors shaping life expectancy. Among the important tools in this approach are mathematical models, which can explore probable benefits and limitations of interventions in silico, before their implementation in human populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

The evolutionary psychology of mate selection in Morocco : A multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Walter, A

1997-06-01

Patterns of mate preference in Morocco are investigated in order to test whether they support hypotheses advanced by David Buss and other evolutionary psychologists. Because of the custom of cousin marriage in Morocco, a multivariate model that included cosocialization data was developed for the purpose of testing the Westermarck hypothesis of inbreeding avoidance. Hence, two previously separate domains of research are unified in one design that permits the further exploration of questions pertaining to the domain specificity of psychological mechanisms. Multiple independent mate choice predictors were identified using logistic regression analysis. Results support the Westermarck hypothesis of inbreeding avoidance. Sleeping in the same room during childhood was found in both sexes to produce an aversion to marriage. Other evidence suggests that aversion to inbreeding extends further among females than males in that females but not males show an aversion to marriage to related individuals with whom they had daily social contact in early childhood. The evolutionary prediction that females differ from males concerning resource holding capacity was also supported. Females showed a preference for males whom they judged to have higher social status than theirs, while this criterion was unimportant for males. The predicted sex difference in preferred age of marriage partner was also supported. Contrary to previous findings, the predicted difference between the sexes with regard to physical attractiveness was not supported.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity and environmental tolerance of a labile quantitative character in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Lande, R

2014-05-01

Quantitative genetic models of evolution of phenotypic plasticity are used to derive environmental tolerance curves for a population in a changing environment, providing a theoretical foundation for integrating physiological and community ecology with evolutionary genetics of plasticity and norms of reaction. Plasticity is modelled for a labile quantitative character undergoing continuous reversible development and selection in a fluctuating environment. If there is no cost of plasticity, a labile character evolves expected plasticity equalling the slope of the optimal phenotype as a function of the environment. This contrasts with previous theory for plasticity influenced by the environment at a critical stage of early development determining a constant adult phenotype on which selection acts, for which the expected plasticity is reduced by the environmental predictability over the discrete time lag between development and selection. With a cost of plasticity in a labile character, the expected plasticity depends on the cost and on the environmental variance and predictability averaged over the continuous developmental time lag. Environmental tolerance curves derived from this model confirm traditional assumptions in physiological ecology and provide new insights. Tolerance curve width increases with larger environmental variance, but can only evolve within a limited range. The strength of the trade-off between tolerance curve height and width depends on the cost of plasticity. Asymmetric tolerance curves caused by male sterility at high temperature are illustrated. A simple condition is given for a large transient increase in plasticity and tolerance curve width following a sudden change in average environment. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Split-Ring Springback Simulations with the Non-associated Flow Rule and Evolutionary Elastic-Plasticity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Choi, H. J.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, M. G.

2018-03-01

Finite element simulations and experiments for the split-ring test were conducted to investigate the effect of anisotropic constitutive models on the predictive capability of sheet springback. As an alternative to the commonly employed associated flow rule, a non-associated flow rule for Hill1948 yield function was implemented in the simulations. Moreover, the evolution of anisotropy with plastic deformation was efficiently modeled by identifying equivalent plastic strain-dependent anisotropic coefficients. Comparative study with different yield surfaces and elasticity models showed that the split-ring springback could be best predicted when the anisotropy in both the R value and yield stress, their evolution and variable apparent elastic modulus were taken into account in the simulations. Detailed analyses based on deformation paths superimposed on the anisotropic yield functions predicted by different constitutive models were provided to understand the complex springback response in the split-ring test.

Split-Ring Springback Simulations with the Non-associated Flow Rule and Evolutionary Elastic-Plasticity Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Choi, H. J.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, M. G.

2018-06-01

Finite element simulations and experiments for the split-ring test were conducted to investigate the effect of anisotropic constitutive models on the predictive capability of sheet springback. As an alternative to the commonly employed associated flow rule, a non-associated flow rule for Hill1948 yield function was implemented in the simulations. Moreover, the evolution of anisotropy with plastic deformation was efficiently modeled by identifying equivalent plastic strain-dependent anisotropic coefficients. Comparative study with different yield surfaces and elasticity models showed that the split-ring springback could be best predicted when the anisotropy in both the R value and yield stress, their evolution and variable apparent elastic modulus were taken into account in the simulations. Detailed analyses based on deformation paths superimposed on the anisotropic yield functions predicted by different constitutive models were provided to understand the complex springback response in the split-ring test.

Impact of the terrestrial-aquatic transition on disparity and rates of evolution in the carnivoran skull.

PubMed

Jones, Katrina E; Smaers, Jeroen B; Goswami, Anjali

2015-02-04

Which factors influence the distribution patterns of morphological diversity among clades? The adaptive radiation model predicts that a clade entering new ecological niche will experience high rates of evolution early in its history, followed by a gradual slowing. Here we measure disparity and rates of evolution in Carnivora, specifically focusing on the terrestrial-aquatic transition in Pinnipedia. We analyze fissiped (mostly terrestrial, arboreal, and semi-arboreal, but also including the semi-aquatic otter) and pinniped (secondarily aquatic) carnivorans as a case study of an extreme ecological transition. We used 3D geometric morphometrics to quantify cranial shape in 151 carnivoran specimens (64 fissiped, 87 pinniped) and five exceptionally-preserved fossil pinnipeds, including the stem-pinniped Enaliarctos emlongi. Range-based and variance-based disparity measures were compared between pinnipeds and fissipeds. To distinguish between evolutionary modes, a Brownian motion model was compared to selective regime shifts associated with the terrestrial-aquatic transition and at the base of Pinnipedia. Further, evolutionary patterns were estimated on individual branches using both Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Independent Evolution models, to examine the origin of pinniped diversity. Pinnipeds exhibit greater cranial disparity than fissipeds, even though they are less taxonomically diverse and, as a clade nested within fissipeds, phylogenetically younger. Despite this, there is no increase in the rate of morphological evolution at the base of Pinnipedia, as would be predicted by an adaptive radiation model, and a Brownian motion model of evolution is supported. Instead basal pinnipeds populated new areas of morphospace via low to moderate rates of evolution in new directions, followed by later bursts within the crown-group, potentially associated with ecological diversification within the marine realm. The transition to an aquatic habitat in carnivorans resulted in a shift in cranial morphology without an increase in rate in the stem lineage, contra to the adaptive radiation model. Instead these data suggest a release from evolutionary constraint model, followed by aquatic diversifications within crown families.

Island biogeography: Taking the long view of nature's laboratories.

PubMed

Whittaker, Robert J; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Matthews, Thomas J; Borregaard, Michael K; Triantis, Kostas A

2017-09-01

Islands provide classic model biological systems. We review how growing appreciation of geoenvironmental dynamics of marine islands has led to advances in island biogeographic theory accommodating both evolutionary and ecological phenomena. Recognition of distinct island geodynamics permits general models to be developed and modified to account for patterns of diversity, diversification, lineage development, and trait evolution within and across island archipelagos. Emergent patterns of diversity include predictable variation in island species-area relationships, progression rule colonization from older to younger land masses, and syndromes including loss of dispersability and secondary woodiness in herbaceous plant lineages. Further developments in Earth system science, molecular biology, and trait data for islands hold continued promise for unlocking many of the unresolved questions in evolutionary biology and biogeography. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change

PubMed Central

Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

2011-01-01

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals’ responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work. PMID:25567979

Historical contingency and ecological determinism interact to prime speciation in sticklebacks, Gasterosteus.

PubMed Central

Taylor, E B; McPhail, J D

2000-01-01

Historical contingency and determinism are often cast as opposing paradigms under which evolutionary diversification operates. It may be, however, that both factors act together to promote evolutionary divergence, although there are few examples of such interaction in nature. We tested phylogenetic predictions of an explicit historical model of divergence (double invasions of freshwater by marine ancestors) in sympatric species of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) where determinism has been implicated as an important factor driving evolutionary novelty. Microsatellite DNA variation at six loci revealed relatively low genetic variation in freshwater populations, supporting the hypothesis that they were derived by colonization of freshwater by more diverse marine ancestors. Phylogenetic and genetic distance analyses suggested that pairs of sympatric species have evolved multiple times, further implicating determinism as a factor in speciation. Our data also supported predictions based on the hypothesis that the evolution of sympatric species was contingent upon 'double invasions' of postglacial lakes by ancestral marine sticklebacks. Sympatric sticklebacks, therefore, provide an example of adaptive radiation by determinism contingent upon historical conditions promoting unique ecological interactions, and illustrate how contingency and determinism may interact to generate geographical variation in species diversity PMID:11133026

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

2011-03-01

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

The accumulation of reproductive isolation in early stages of divergence supports a role for sexual selection.

PubMed

Martin, M D; Mendelson, T C

2016-04-01

Models of speciation by sexual selection propose that male-female coevolution leads to the rapid evolution of behavioural reproductive isolation. Here, we compare the strength of behavioural isolation to ecological isolation, gametic incompatibility and hybrid inviability in a group of dichromatic stream fishes. In addition, we examine whether any of these individual barriers, or a combined measure of total isolation, is predicted by body shape differences, male colour differences, environmental differences or genetic distance. Behavioural isolation reaches the highest values of any barrier and is significantly greater than ecological isolation. No individual reproductive barrier is associated with any of the predictor variables. However, marginally significant relationships between male colour and body shape differences with ecological and behavioural isolation are discussed. Differences in male colour and body shape predict total reproductive isolation between species; hierarchical partitioning of these two variables' effects suggests a stronger role for male colour differences. Together, these results suggest an important role for divergent sexual selection in darter speciation but raise new questions about the mechanisms of sexual selection at play and the role of male nuptial ornaments. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Does aquatic foraging impact head shape evolution in snakes?

PubMed Central

Cornette, Raphaël; Fabre, Anne-Claire; Godoy-Diana, Ramiro; Herrel, Anthony

2016-01-01

Evolutionary trajectories are often biased by developmental and historical factors. However, environmental factors can also impose constraints on the evolutionary trajectories of organisms leading to convergence of morphology in similar ecological contexts. The physical properties of water impose strong constraints on aquatic feeding animals by generating pressure waves that can alert prey and potentially push them away from the mouth. These hydrodynamic constraints have resulted in the independent evolution of suction feeding in most groups of secondarily aquatic tetrapods. Despite the fact that snakes cannot use suction, they have invaded the aquatic milieu many times independently. Here, we test whether the aquatic environment has constrained head shape evolution in snakes and whether shape converges on that predicted by biomechanical models. To do so, we used three-dimensional geometric morphometrics and comparative, phylogenetically informed analyses on a large sample of aquatic snake species. Our results show that aquatic snakes partially conform to our predictions and have a narrower anterior part of the head and dorsally positioned eyes and nostrils. This morphology is observed, irrespective of the phylogenetic relationships among species, suggesting that the aquatic environment does indeed drive the evolution of head shape in snakes, thus biasing the evolutionary trajectory of this group of animals. PMID:27581887

Coral snakes predict the evolution of mimicry across New World snakes.

PubMed

Davis Rabosky, Alison R; Cox, Christian L; Rabosky, Daniel L; Title, Pascal O; Holmes, Iris A; Feldman, Anat; McGuire, Jimmy A

2016-05-05

Batesian mimicry, in which harmless species (mimics) deter predators by deceitfully imitating the warning signals of noxious species (models), generates striking cases of phenotypic convergence that are classic examples of evolution by natural selection. However, mimicry of venomous coral snakes has remained controversial because of unresolved conflict between the predictions of mimicry theory and empirical patterns in the distribution and abundance of snakes. Here we integrate distributional, phenotypic and phylogenetic data across all New World snake species to demonstrate that shifts to mimetic coloration in nonvenomous snakes are highly correlated with coral snakes in both space and time, providing overwhelming support for Batesian mimicry. We also find that bidirectional transitions between mimetic and cryptic coloration are unexpectedly frequent over both long- and short-time scales, challenging traditional views of mimicry as a stable evolutionary 'end point' and suggesting that insect and snake mimicry may have different evolutionary dynamics.

Melting barriers to faunal exchange across ocean basins.

PubMed

McKeon, C Seabird; Weber, Michele X; Alter, S Elizabeth; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Crandall, Eric D; Barshis, Daniel J; Fechter-Leggett, Ethan D; Oleson, Kirsten L L

2016-02-01

Accelerated loss of sea ice in the Arctic is opening routes connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for longer periods each year. These changes may increase the ease and frequency with which marine birds and mammals move between the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins. Indeed, recent observations of birds and mammals suggest these movements have intensified in recent decades. Reconnection of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins will present both challenges to marine ecosystem conservation and an unprecedented opportunity to examine the ecological and evolutionary consequences of interoceanic faunal exchange in real time. To understand these changes and implement effective conservation of marine ecosystems, we need to further develop modeling efforts to predict the rate of dispersal and consequences of faunal exchange. These predictions can be tested by closely monitoring wildlife dispersal through the Arctic Ocean and using modern methods to explore the ecological and evolutionary consequences of these movements. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coral snakes predict the evolution of mimicry across New World snakes

PubMed Central

Davis Rabosky, Alison R.; Cox, Christian L.; Rabosky, Daniel L.; Title, Pascal O.; Holmes, Iris A.; Feldman, Anat; McGuire, Jimmy A.

2016-01-01

Batesian mimicry, in which harmless species (mimics) deter predators by deceitfully imitating the warning signals of noxious species (models), generates striking cases of phenotypic convergence that are classic examples of evolution by natural selection. However, mimicry of venomous coral snakes has remained controversial because of unresolved conflict between the predictions of mimicry theory and empirical patterns in the distribution and abundance of snakes. Here we integrate distributional, phenotypic and phylogenetic data across all New World snake species to demonstrate that shifts to mimetic coloration in nonvenomous snakes are highly correlated with coral snakes in both space and time, providing overwhelming support for Batesian mimicry. We also find that bidirectional transitions between mimetic and cryptic coloration are unexpectedly frequent over both long- and short-time scales, challenging traditional views of mimicry as a stable evolutionary ‘end point' and suggesting that insect and snake mimicry may have different evolutionary dynamics. PMID:27146100

Can evolutionary principles explain patterns of family violence?

PubMed

Archer, John

2013-03-01

The article's aim is to evaluate the application of the evolutionary principles of kin selection, reproductive value, and resource holding power to the understanding of family violence. The principles are described in relation to specific predictions and the mechanisms underlying these. Predictions are evaluated for physical violence perpetrated by (a) parents to unrelated children, (b) parents to genetic offspring, and (c) offspring to parents and between (d) siblings and (e) sexual partners. Precise figures for risks have been calculated where possible. The major conclusions are that most of the evidence is consistent with evolutionary predictions derived from kin selection and reproductive value: There were (a) higher rates of violence to stepchildren, (b) a decline in violence with the age of offspring, and (c) an increase in violence with parental age, while (d) violence between siblings was generally at a low level and concerned resource disputes. The issue of distinguishing evolutionary from alternative explanations is addressed throughout and is problematic for predictions derived from reproductive value. The main evolutionary explanation for male partner violence, mate guarding as a result of paternity uncertainty, cannot explain Western studies where sex differences in control and violence between partners were absent, although other aspects of male partner violence are consistent with it, and it may explain sex differences in traditional cultures. Recurrent problems in evaluating the evidence were to control for possible confounds and thus to distinguish evolutionary from alternative explanations. Suggestions are outlined to address this and other issues arising from the review. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Ab initio NMR Confirmed Evolutionary Structure Prediction for Organic Molecular Crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Cong-Huy; Kucukbenli, Emine; de Gironcoli, Stefano

2015-03-01

Ab initio crystal structure prediction of even small organic compounds is extremely challenging due to polymorphism, molecular flexibility and difficulties in addressing the dispersion interaction from first principles. We recently implemented vdW-aware density functionals and demonstrated their success in energy ordering of aminoacid crystals. In this work we combine this development with the evolutionary structure prediction method to study cholesterol polymorphs. Cholesterol crystals have paramount importance in various diseases, from cancer to atherosclerosis. The structure of some polymorphs (e.g. ChM, ChAl, ChAh) have already been resolved while some others, which display distinct NMR spectra and are involved in disease formation, are yet to be determined. Here we thoroughly assess the applicability of evolutionary structure prediction to address such real world problems. We validate the newly predicted structures with ab initio NMR chemical shift data using secondary referencing for an improved comparison with experiments.

A Fully Associative, Non-Linear Kinematic, Unified Viscoplastic Model for Titanium Based Matrices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.

1994-01-01

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential based multiaxial unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable that is associated with dislocation substructure, with an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of non-linear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This non-linear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated) and greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. Specification of an experimental program for the complete determination of the material functions and parameters for characterizing a metallic matrix, e.g., TIMETAL 21S, is given. The experiments utilized are tensile, creep, and step creep tests. Finally, a comparison of this model and a commonly used Bodner-Partom model is made on the basis of predictive accuracy and numerical efficiency.

Evolutionary dynamics of giant viruses and their virophages.

PubMed

Wodarz, Dominik

2013-07-01

Giant viruses contain large genomes, encode many proteins atypical for viruses, replicate in large viral factories, and tend to infect protists. The giant virus replication factories can in turn be infected by so called virophages, which are smaller viruses that negatively impact giant virus replication. An example is Mimiviruses that infect the protist Acanthamoeba and that are themselves infected by the virophage Sputnik. This study examines the evolutionary dynamics of this system, using mathematical models. While the models suggest that the virophage population will evolve to increasing degrees of giant virus inhibition, it further suggests that this renders the virophage population prone to extinction due to dynamic instabilities over wide parameter ranges. Implications and conditions required to avoid extinction are discussed. Another interesting result is that virophage presence can fundamentally alter the evolutionary course of the giant virus. While the giant virus is predicted to evolve toward increasing its basic reproductive ratio in the absence of the virophage, the opposite is true in its presence. Therefore, virophages can not only benefit the host population directly by inhibiting the giant viruses but also indirectly by causing giant viruses to evolve toward weaker phenotypes. Experimental tests for this model are suggested.

Evolutionary dynamics of giant viruses and their virophages

PubMed Central

Wodarz, Dominik

2013-01-01

Giant viruses contain large genomes, encode many proteins atypical for viruses, replicate in large viral factories, and tend to infect protists. The giant virus replication factories can in turn be infected by so called virophages, which are smaller viruses that negatively impact giant virus replication. An example is Mimiviruses that infect the protist Acanthamoeba and that are themselves infected by the virophage Sputnik. This study examines the evolutionary dynamics of this system, using mathematical models. While the models suggest that the virophage population will evolve to increasing degrees of giant virus inhibition, it further suggests that this renders the virophage population prone to extinction due to dynamic instabilities over wide parameter ranges. Implications and conditions required to avoid extinction are discussed. Another interesting result is that virophage presence can fundamentally alter the evolutionary course of the giant virus. While the giant virus is predicted to evolve toward increasing its basic reproductive ratio in the absence of the virophage, the opposite is true in its presence. Therefore, virophages can not only benefit the host population directly by inhibiting the giant viruses but also indirectly by causing giant viruses to evolve toward weaker phenotypes. Experimental tests for this model are suggested. PMID:23919155

Signatures of microevolutionary processes in phylogenetic patterns.

PubMed

Costa, Carolina L N; Lemos-Costa, Paula; Marquitti, Flavia M D; Fernandes, Lucas D; Ramos, Marlon F; Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; Aguiar, Marcus A M

2018-06-23

Phylogenetic trees are representations of evolutionary relationships among species and contain signatures of the processes responsible for the speciation events they display. Inferring processes from tree properties, however, is challenging. To address this problem we analysed a spatially-explicit model of speciation where genome size and mating range can be controlled. We simulated parapatric and sympatric (narrow and wide mating range, respectively) radiations and constructed their phylogenetic trees, computing structural properties such as tree balance and speed of diversification. We showed that parapatric and sympatric speciation are well separated by these structural tree properties. Balanced trees with constant rates of diversification only originate in sympatry and genome size affected both the balance and the speed of diversification of the simulated trees. Comparison with empirical data showed that most of the evolutionary radiations considered to have developed in parapatry or sympatry are in good agreement with model predictions. Even though additional forces other than spatial restriction of gene flow, genome size, and genetic incompatibilities, do play a role in the evolution of species formation, the microevolutionary processes modeled here capture signatures of the diversification pattern of evolutionary radiations, regarding the symmetry and speed of diversification of lineages.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Perspective: Evolutionary design of granular media and block copolymer patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, Heinrich M.; de Pablo, Juan J.

2016-05-01

The creation of new materials "by design" is a process that starts from desired materials properties and proceeds to identify requirements for the constituent components. Such process is challenging because it inverts the typical modeling approach, which starts from given micro-level components to predict macro-level properties. We describe how to tackle this inverse problem using concepts from evolutionary computation. These concepts have widespread applicability and open up new opportunities for design as well as discovery. Here we apply them to design tasks involving two very different classes of soft materials, shape-optimized granular media and nanopatterned block copolymer thin films.

Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Solymos, Peter; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Stralberg, Diana; Barker, Nicole K. S.; Bayne, Erin M.

2018-01-01

Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.

Performance comparison of the Prophecy (forecasting) Algorithm in FFT form for unseen feature and time-series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James

2013-06-01

We introduce a generalized numerical prediction and forecasting algorithm. We have previously published it for malware byte sequence feature prediction and generalized distribution modeling for disparate test article analysis. We show how non-trivial non-periodic extrapolation of a numerical sequence (forecast and backcast) from the starting data is possible. Our ancestor-progeny prediction can yield new options for evolutionary programming. Our equations enable analytical integrals and derivatives to any order. Interpolation is controllable from smooth continuous to fractal structure estimation. We show how our generalized trigonometric polynomial can be derived using a Fourier transform.

Judgments about Cooperators and Freeriders on a Shuar Work Team: An Evolutionary Psychological Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Michael E.

2006-01-01

Evolutionary biological theories of group cooperation predict that (1) group members will tend to judge cooperative co-members favorably, and freeriding co-members negatively and (2) members who themselves cooperate more frequently will be especially likely to make these social judgments. An experiment tested these predictions among Shuar…

Origin and Functional Prediction of Pollen Allergens in Plants1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Chen, Miaolin; Xu, Jie; Ren, Kang; Searle, Iain

2016-01-01

Pollen allergies have long been a major pandemic health problem for human. However, the evolutionary events and biological function of pollen allergens in plants remain largely unknown. Here, we report the genome-wide prediction of pollen allergens and their biological function in the dicotyledonous model plant Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) and the monocotyledonous model plant rice (Oryza sativa). In total, 145 and 107 pollen allergens were predicted from rice and Arabidopsis, respectively. These pollen allergens are putatively involved in stress responses and metabolic processes such as cell wall metabolism during pollen development. Interestingly, these putative pollen allergen genes were derived from large gene families and became diversified during evolution. Sequence analysis across 25 plant species from green alga to angiosperms suggest that about 40% of putative pollen allergenic proteins existed in both lower and higher plants, while other allergens emerged during evolution. Although a high proportion of gene duplication has been observed among allergen-coding genes, our data show that these genes might have undergone purifying selection during evolution. We also observed that epitopes of an allergen might have a biological function, as revealed by comprehensive analysis of two known allergens, expansin and profilin. This implies a crucial role of conserved amino acid residues in both in planta biological function and allergenicity. Finally, a model explaining how pollen allergens were generated and maintained in plants is proposed. Prediction and systematic analysis of pollen allergens in model plants suggest that pollen allergens were evolved by gene duplication and then functional specification. This study provides insight into the phylogenetic and evolutionary scenario of pollen allergens that will be helpful to future characterization and epitope screening of pollen allergens. PMID:27436829

Origin and Functional Prediction of Pollen Allergens in Plants.

PubMed

Chen, Miaolin; Xu, Jie; Devis, Deborah; Shi, Jianxin; Ren, Kang; Searle, Iain; Zhang, Dabing

2016-09-01

Pollen allergies have long been a major pandemic health problem for human. However, the evolutionary events and biological function of pollen allergens in plants remain largely unknown. Here, we report the genome-wide prediction of pollen allergens and their biological function in the dicotyledonous model plant Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) and the monocotyledonous model plant rice (Oryza sativa). In total, 145 and 107 pollen allergens were predicted from rice and Arabidopsis, respectively. These pollen allergens are putatively involved in stress responses and metabolic processes such as cell wall metabolism during pollen development. Interestingly, these putative pollen allergen genes were derived from large gene families and became diversified during evolution. Sequence analysis across 25 plant species from green alga to angiosperms suggest that about 40% of putative pollen allergenic proteins existed in both lower and higher plants, while other allergens emerged during evolution. Although a high proportion of gene duplication has been observed among allergen-coding genes, our data show that these genes might have undergone purifying selection during evolution. We also observed that epitopes of an allergen might have a biological function, as revealed by comprehensive analysis of two known allergens, expansin and profilin. This implies a crucial role of conserved amino acid residues in both in planta biological function and allergenicity. Finally, a model explaining how pollen allergens were generated and maintained in plants is proposed. Prediction and systematic analysis of pollen allergens in model plants suggest that pollen allergens were evolved by gene duplication and then functional specification. This study provides insight into the phylogenetic and evolutionary scenario of pollen allergens that will be helpful to future characterization and epitope screening of pollen allergens. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

Massive stars in advanced evolutionary stages, and the progenitor of GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Wolf-Rainer; Oskinova, Lidia; Todt, Helge; Sander, Andreas; Hainich, Rainer; Shenar, Tomer; Ramachandran, Varsha

2017-11-01

The recent discovery of a gravitational wave from the merging of two black holes of about 30 solar masses each challenges our incomplete understanding of massive stars and their evolution. Critical ingredients comprise mass-loss, rotation, magnetic fields, internal mixing, and mass transfer in close binary systems. The imperfect knowledge of these factors implies large uncertainties for models of stellar populations and their feedback. In this contribution we summarize our empirical studies of Wolf-Rayet populations at different metallicities by means of modern non-LTE stellar atmosphere models, and confront these results with the predictions of stellar evolution models. At the metallicity of our Galaxy, stellar winds are probably too strong to leave remnant masses as high as ~30 M⊙, but given the still poor agreement between evolutionary tracks and observation even this conclusion is debatable. At the low metallicity of the Small Magellanic Cloud, all WN stars which are (at least now) single are consistent with evolving quasi-homogeneously. O and B-type stars, in contrast, seem to comply with standard evolutionary models without strong internal mixing. Close binaries which avoided early merging could evolve quasi-homogeneously and lead to close compact remnants of relatively high masses that merge within a Hubble time.

A Model of the Pulsating Extremely Low-mass White Dwarf Precursor WASP 0247-25B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istrate, A. G.; Fontaine, G.; Heuser, C.

2017-10-01

We present an analysis of the evolutionary and pulsation properties of the extremely low-mass white dwarf precursor (B) component of the double-lined eclipsing system WASP 0247-25. Given that the fundamental parameters of that star have been obtained previously at a unique level of precision, WASP 0247-25B represents the ideal case for testing evolutionary models of this newly found category of pulsators. Taking into account the known constraints on the mass, orbital period, effective temperature, surface gravity, and atmospheric composition, we present a model that is compatible with these constraints and show pulsation modes that have periods very close to the observed values. Importantly, these modes are predicted to be excited. Although the overall consistency remains perfectible, the observable properties of WASP 0247-25B are closely reproduced. A key ingredient of our binary evolutionary models is represented by rotational mixing as the main competitor against gravitational settling. Depending on assumptions made about the values of the degree index ℓ for the observed pulsation modes, we found three possible seismic solutions. We discuss two tests, rotational splitting and multicolor photometry, that should readily identify the modes and discriminate between these solutions. However, this will require improved temporal resolution and higher S/N observations, which are currently unavailable.

Effects of complex life cycles on genetic diversity: cyclical parthenogenesis

PubMed Central

Rouger, R; Reichel, K; Malrieu, F; Masson, J P; Stoeckel, S

2016-01-01

Neutral patterns of population genetic diversity in species with complex life cycles are difficult to anticipate. Cyclical parthenogenesis (CP), in which organisms undergo several rounds of clonal reproduction followed by a sexual event, is one such life cycle. Many species, including crop pests (aphids), human parasites (trematodes) or models used in evolutionary science (Daphnia), are cyclical parthenogens. It is therefore crucial to understand the impact of such a life cycle on neutral genetic diversity. In this paper, we describe distributions of genetic diversity under conditions of CP with various clonal phase lengths. Using a Markov chain model of CP for a single locus and individual-based simulations for two loci, our analysis first demonstrates that strong departures from full sexuality are observed after only a few generations of clonality. The convergence towards predictions made under conditions of full clonality during the clonal phase depends on the balance between mutations and genetic drift. Second, the sexual event of CP usually resets the genetic diversity at a single locus towards predictions made under full sexuality. However, this single recombination event is insufficient to reshuffle gametic phases towards full-sexuality predictions. Finally, for similar levels of clonality, CP and acyclic partial clonality (wherein a fixed proportion of individuals are clonally produced within each generation) differentially affect the distribution of genetic diversity. Overall, this work provides solid predictions of neutral genetic diversity that may serve as a null model in detecting the action of common evolutionary or demographic processes in cyclical parthenogens (for example, selection or bottlenecks). PMID:27436524

Improved Assimilation of Streamflow and Satellite Soil Moisture with the Evolutionary Particle Filter and Geostatistical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Abbaszadeh, Peyman

2017-04-01

Assimilation of satellite soil moisture and streamflow data into hydrologic models using has received increasing attention over the past few years. Currently, these observations are increasingly used to improve the model streamflow and soil moisture predictions. However, the performance of this land data assimilation (DA) system still suffers from two limitations: 1) satellite data scarcity and quality; and 2) particle weight degeneration. In order to overcome these two limitations, we propose two possible solutions in this study. First, the general Gaussian geostatistical approach is proposed to overcome the limitation in the space/time resolution of satellite soil moisture products thus improving their accuracy at uncovered/biased grid cells. Secondly, an evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the so-called EPF-MCMC, is developed to further reduce weight degeneration and improve the robustness of the land DA system. This study provides a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and satellite soil moisture into a distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, with the use of recently developed EPF-MCMC and the general Gaussian geostatistical approach. Performance is assessed over several basins in the USA selected from Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and located in different climate regions. The results indicate that: 1) the general Gaussian approach can predict the soil moisture at uncovered grid cells within the expected satellite data quality threshold; 2) assimilation of satellite soil moisture inferred from the general Gaussian model can significantly improve the soil moisture predictions; and 3) in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic measures, the EPF-MCMC can achieve better streamflow predictions. These results recommend that the geostatistical model is a helpful tool to aid the remote sensing technique and the EPF-MCMC is a reliable and effective DA approach in hydrologic applications.

Beyond Reasonable Doubt: Evolution from DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Penny, David

2013-01-01

We demonstrate quantitatively that, as predicted by evolutionary theory, sequences of homologous proteins from different species converge as we go further and further back in time. The converse, a non-evolutionary model can be expressed as probabilities, and the test works for chloroplast, nuclear and mitochondrial sequences, as well as for sequences that diverged at different time depths. Even on our conservative test, the probability that chance could produce the observed levels of ancestral convergence for just one of the eight datasets of 51 proteins is ≈1×10−19 and combined over 8 datasets is ≈1×10−132. By comparison, there are about 1080 protons in the universe, hence the probability that the sequences could have been produced by a process involving unrelated ancestral sequences is about 1050 lower than picking, among all protons, the same proton at random twice in a row. A non-evolutionary control model shows no convergence, and only a small number of parameters are required to account for the observations. It is time that that researchers insisted that doubters put up testable alternatives to evolution. PMID:23950906

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms for fuzzy classification in survival prediction.

PubMed

Jiménez, Fernando; Sánchez, Gracia; Juárez, José M

2014-03-01

This paper presents a novel rule-based fuzzy classification methodology for survival/mortality prediction in severe burnt patients. Due to the ethical aspects involved in this medical scenario, physicians tend not to accept a computer-based evaluation unless they understand why and how such a recommendation is given. Therefore, any fuzzy classifier model must be both accurate and interpretable. The proposed methodology is a three-step process: (1) multi-objective constrained optimization of a patient's data set, using Pareto-based elitist multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to maximize accuracy and minimize the complexity (number of rules) of classifiers, subject to interpretability constraints; this step produces a set of alternative (Pareto) classifiers; (2) linguistic labeling, which assigns a linguistic label to each fuzzy set of the classifiers; this step is essential to the interpretability of the classifiers; (3) decision making, whereby a classifier is chosen, if it is satisfactory, according to the preferences of the decision maker. If no classifier is satisfactory for the decision maker, the process starts again in step (1) with a different input parameter set. The performance of three multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, niched pre-selection multi-objective algorithm, elitist Pareto-based multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for diversity reinforcement (ENORA) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), was tested using a patient's data set from an intensive care burn unit and a standard machine learning data set from an standard machine learning repository. The results are compared using the hypervolume multi-objective metric. Besides, the results have been compared with other non-evolutionary techniques and validated with a multi-objective cross-validation technique. Our proposal improves the classification rate obtained by other non-evolutionary techniques (decision trees, artificial neural networks, Naive Bayes, and case-based reasoning) obtaining with ENORA a classification rate of 0.9298, specificity of 0.9385, and sensitivity of 0.9364, with 14.2 interpretable fuzzy rules on average. Our proposal improves the accuracy and interpretability of the classifiers, compared with other non-evolutionary techniques. We also conclude that ENORA outperforms niched pre-selection and NSGA-II algorithms. Moreover, given that our multi-objective evolutionary methodology is non-combinational based on real parameter optimization, the time cost is significantly reduced compared with other evolutionary approaches existing in literature based on combinational optimization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Models of performance of evolutionary program induction algorithms based on indicators of problem difficulty.

PubMed

Graff, Mario; Poli, Riccardo; Flores, Juan J

2013-01-01

Modeling the behavior of algorithms is the realm of evolutionary algorithm theory. From a practitioner's point of view, theory must provide some guidelines regarding which algorithm/parameters to use in order to solve a particular problem. Unfortunately, most theoretical models of evolutionary algorithms are difficult to apply to realistic situations. However, in recent work (Graff and Poli, 2008, 2010), where we developed a method to practically estimate the performance of evolutionary program-induction algorithms (EPAs), we started addressing this issue. The method was quite general; however, it suffered from some limitations: it required the identification of a set of reference problems, it required hand picking a distance measure in each particular domain, and the resulting models were opaque, typically being linear combinations of 100 features or more. In this paper, we propose a significant improvement of this technique that overcomes the three limitations of our previous method. We achieve this through the use of a novel set of features for assessing problem difficulty for EPAs which are very general, essentially based on the notion of finite difference. To show the capabilities or our technique and to compare it with our previous performance models, we create models for the same two important classes of problems-symbolic regression on rational functions and Boolean function induction-used in our previous work. We model a variety of EPAs. The comparison showed that for the majority of the algorithms and problem classes, the new method produced much simpler and more accurate models than before. To further illustrate the practicality of the technique and its generality (beyond EPAs), we have also used it to predict the performance of both autoregressive models and EPAs on the problem of wind speed forecasting, obtaining simpler and more accurate models that outperform in all cases our previous performance models.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Daniel A.

2010-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation

PubMed Central

Shinneman, Douglas J.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2016-01-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate. PMID:26985674

Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

PubMed

Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

2016-01-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2016-01-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

Kernel Method Based Human Model for Enhancing Interactive Evolutionary Optimization

PubMed Central

Zhao, Qiangfu; Liu, Yong

2015-01-01

A fitness landscape presents the relationship between individual and its reproductive success in evolutionary computation (EC). However, discrete and approximate landscape in an original search space may not support enough and accurate information for EC search, especially in interactive EC (IEC). The fitness landscape of human subjective evaluation in IEC is very difficult and impossible to model, even with a hypothesis of what its definition might be. In this paper, we propose a method to establish a human model in projected high dimensional search space by kernel classification for enhancing IEC search. Because bivalent logic is a simplest perceptual paradigm, the human model is established by considering this paradigm principle. In feature space, we design a linear classifier as a human model to obtain user preference knowledge, which cannot be supported linearly in original discrete search space. The human model is established by this method for predicting potential perceptual knowledge of human. With the human model, we design an evolution control method to enhance IEC search. From experimental evaluation results with a pseudo-IEC user, our proposed model and method can enhance IEC search significantly. PMID:25879050

Evolutionary Computation for the Identification of Emergent Behavior in Autonomous Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrile, Richard J.; Guillaume, Alexandre

2009-01-01

Over the past several years the Center for Evolutionary Computation and Automated Design at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has developed a technique based on Evolutionary Computational Methods (ECM) that allows for the automated optimization of complex computationally modeled systems. An important application of this technique is for the identification of emergent behaviors in autonomous systems. Mobility platforms such as rovers or airborne vehicles are now being designed with autonomous mission controllers that can find trajectories over a solution space that is larger than can reasonably be tested. It is critical to identify control behaviors that are not predicted and can have surprising results (both good and bad). These emergent behaviors need to be identified, characterized and either incorporated into or isolated from the acceptable range of control characteristics. We use cluster analysis of automatically retrieved solutions to identify isolated populations of solutions with divergent behaviors.

Law, evolution and the brain: applications and open questions.

PubMed Central

Jones, Owen D

2004-01-01

This paper discusses several issues at the intersection of law and brain science. It focuses principally on ways in which an improved understanding of how evolutionary processes affect brain function and human behaviour may improve law's ability to regulate behaviour. It explores sample uses of such 'evolutionary analysis in law' and also raises questions about how that analysis might be improved in the future. Among the discussed uses are: (i) clarifying cost-benefit analyses; (ii) providing theoretical foundation and potential predictive power; (iii) assessing comparative effectiveness of legal strategies; and (iv) revealing deep patterns in legal architecture. Throughout, the paper emphasizes the extent to which effective law requires: (i) building effective behavioural models; (ii) integrating life-science perspectives with social-science perspectives; (iii) considering the effects of brain biology on behaviours that law seeks to regulate; and (iv) examining the effects of evolutionary processes on brain design. PMID:15590611

Law, evolution and the brain: applications and open questions.

PubMed

Jones, Owen D

2004-11-29

This paper discusses several issues at the intersection of law and brain science. It focuses principally on ways in which an improved understanding of how evolutionary processes affect brain function and human behaviour may improve law's ability to regulate behaviour. It explores sample uses of such 'evolutionary analysis in law' and also raises questions about how that analysis might be improved in the future. Among the discussed uses are: (i) clarifying cost-benefit analyses; (ii) providing theoretical foundation and potential predictive power; (iii) assessing comparative effectiveness of legal strategies; and (iv) revealing deep patterns in legal architecture. Throughout, the paper emphasizes the extent to which effective law requires: (i) building effective behavioural models; (ii) integrating life-science perspectives with social-science perspectives; (iii) considering the effects of brain biology on behaviours that law seeks to regulate; and (iv) examining the effects of evolutionary processes on brain design.

Toward autonomous spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogel, L. J.; Calabrese, P. G.; Walsh, M. J.; Owens, A. J.

1982-01-01

Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented.

Universality and predictability in molecular quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Nourmohammad, Armita; Held, Torsten; Lässig, Michael

2013-12-01

Molecular traits, such as gene expression levels or protein binding affinities, are increasingly accessible to quantitative measurement by modern high-throughput techniques. Such traits measure molecular functions and, from an evolutionary point of view, are important as targets of natural selection. We review recent developments in evolutionary theory and experiments that are expected to become building blocks of a quantitative genetics of molecular traits. We focus on universal evolutionary characteristics: these are largely independent of a trait's genetic basis, which is often at least partially unknown. We show that universal measurements can be used to infer selection on a quantitative trait, which determines its evolutionary mode of conservation or adaptation. Furthermore, universality is closely linked to predictability of trait evolution across lineages. We argue that universal trait statistics extends over a range of cellular scales and opens new avenues of quantitative evolutionary systems biology. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Roberto; Pagano, Luca

2017-12-01

To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

Variable context Markov chains for HIV protease cleavage site prediction.

PubMed

Oğul, Hasan

2009-06-01

Deciphering the knowledge of HIV protease specificity and developing computational tools for detecting its cleavage sites in protein polypeptide chain are very desirable for designing efficient and specific chemical inhibitors to prevent acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. In this study, we developed a generative model based on a generalization of variable order Markov chains (VOMC) for peptide sequences and adapted the model for prediction of their cleavability by certain proteases. The new method, called variable context Markov chains (VCMC), attempts to identify the context equivalence based on the evolutionary similarities between individual amino acids. It was applied for HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem and shown to outperform existing methods in terms of prediction accuracy on a common dataset. In general, the method is a promising tool for prediction of cleavage sites of all proteases and encouraged to be used for any kind of peptide classification problem as well.

The morphological state space revisited: what do phylogenetic patterns in homoplasy tell us about the number of possible character states?

PubMed Central

Hoyal Cuthill, Jennifer F.

2015-01-01

Biological variety and major evolutionary transitions suggest that the space of possible morphologies may have varied among lineages and through time. However, most models of phylogenetic character evolution assume that the potential state space is finite. Here, I explore what the morphological state space might be like, by analysing trends in homoplasy (repeated derivation of the same character state). Analyses of ten published character matrices are compared against computer simulations with different state space models: infinite states, finite states, ordered states and an ‘inertial' model, simulating phylogenetic constraints. Of these, only the infinite states model results in evolution without homoplasy, a prediction which is not generally met by real phylogenies. Many authors have interpreted the ubiquity of homoplasy as evidence that the number of evolutionary alternatives is finite. However, homoplasy is also predicted by phylogenetic constraints on the morphological distance that can be traversed between ancestor and descendent. Phylogenetic rarefaction (sub-sampling) shows that finite and inertial state spaces do produce contrasting trends in the distribution of homoplasy. Two clades show trends characteristic of phylogenetic inertia, with decreasing homoplasy (increasing consistency index) as we sub-sample more distantly related taxa. One clade shows increasing homoplasy, suggesting exhaustion of finite states. Different clades may, therefore, show different patterns of character evolution. However, when parsimony uninformative characters are excluded (which may occur without documentation in cladistic studies), it may no longer be possible to distinguish inertial and finite state spaces. Interestingly, inertial models predict that homoplasy should be clustered among comparatively close relatives (parallel evolution), whereas finite state models do not. If morphological evolution is often inertial in nature, then homoplasy (false homology) may primarily occur between close relatives, perhaps being replaced by functional analogy at higher taxonomic scales. PMID:26640650

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population.

PubMed

Bonnet, Timothée; Wandeler, Peter; Camenisch, Glauco; Postma, Erik

2017-01-01

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called "stasis paradox" highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

PubMed Central

Wandeler, Peter; Camenisch, Glauco

2017-01-01

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change. PMID:28125583

Evolutionary computation in zoology and ecology.

PubMed

Boone, Randall B

2017-12-01

Evolutionary computational methods have adopted attributes of natural selection and evolution to solve problems in computer science, engineering, and other fields. The method is growing in use in zoology and ecology. Evolutionary principles may be merged with an agent-based modeling perspective to have individual animals or other agents compete. Four main categories are discussed: genetic algorithms, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, and evolutionary strategies. In evolutionary computation, a population is represented in a way that allows for an objective function to be assessed that is relevant to the problem of interest. The poorest performing members are removed from the population, and remaining members reproduce and may be mutated. The fitness of the members is again assessed, and the cycle continues until a stopping condition is met. Case studies include optimizing: egg shape given different clutch sizes, mate selection, migration of wildebeest, birds, and elk, vulture foraging behavior, algal bloom prediction, and species richness given energy constraints. Other case studies simulate the evolution of species and a means to project shifts in species ranges in response to a changing climate that includes competition and phenotypic plasticity. This introduction concludes by citing other uses of evolutionary computation and a review of the flexibility of the methods. For example, representing species' niche spaces subject to selective pressure allows studies on cladistics, the taxon cycle, neutral versus niche paradigms, fundamental versus realized niches, community structure and order of colonization, invasiveness, and responses to a changing climate.

Evolutionary computation in zoology and ecology

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Evolutionary computational methods have adopted attributes of natural selection and evolution to solve problems in computer science, engineering, and other fields. The method is growing in use in zoology and ecology. Evolutionary principles may be merged with an agent-based modeling perspective to have individual animals or other agents compete. Four main categories are discussed: genetic algorithms, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, and evolutionary strategies. In evolutionary computation, a population is represented in a way that allows for an objective function to be assessed that is relevant to the problem of interest. The poorest performing members are removed from the population, and remaining members reproduce and may be mutated. The fitness of the members is again assessed, and the cycle continues until a stopping condition is met. Case studies include optimizing: egg shape given different clutch sizes, mate selection, migration of wildebeest, birds, and elk, vulture foraging behavior, algal bloom prediction, and species richness given energy constraints. Other case studies simulate the evolution of species and a means to project shifts in species ranges in response to a changing climate that includes competition and phenotypic plasticity. This introduction concludes by citing other uses of evolutionary computation and a review of the flexibility of the methods. For example, representing species’ niche spaces subject to selective pressure allows studies on cladistics, the taxon cycle, neutral versus niche paradigms, fundamental versus realized niches, community structure and order of colonization, invasiveness, and responses to a changing climate. PMID:29492029

Deontic reasoning with emotional content: evolutionary psychology or decision theory?

PubMed

Perham, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

2005-09-10

Three experiments investigated the contrasting predictions of the evolutionary and decision-theoretic approaches to deontic reasoning. Two experiments embedded a hazard management (HM) rule in a social contract scenario that should lead to competition between innate modules. A 3rd experiment used a pure HM task. Threatening material was also introduced into the antecedent, p, of a deontic rule, if p then must q. According to the evolutionary approach, more HM responses (Cosmides & Tooby, 2000) are predicted when p is threatening, whereas decision theory predicts fewer. All 3 experiments were consistent with decision theory. Other theories are discussed, and it is concluded that they cannot account for the behavior observed in these experiments. 2005 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

Can Ebola virus evolve to be less virulent in humans?

PubMed

Sofonea, M T; Aldakak, L; Boullosa, L F V V; Alizon, S

2018-03-01

Understanding Ebola virus (EBOV) virulence evolution not only is timely but also raises specific questions because it causes one of the most virulent human infections and it is capable of transmission after the death of its host. Using a compartmental epidemiological model that captures three transmission routes (by regular contact, via dead bodies and by sexual contact), we infer the evolutionary dynamics of case fatality ratio on the scale of an outbreak and in the long term. Our major finding is that the virus's specific life cycle imposes selection for high levels of virulence and that this pattern is robust to parameter variations in biological ranges. In addition to shedding a new light on the ultimate causes of EBOV's high virulence, these results generate testable predictions and contribute to informing public health policies. In particular, burial management stands out as the most appropriate intervention since it decreases the R0 of the epidemics, while imposing selection for less virulent strains. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The evolution of social and semantic networks in epistemic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolin, Drew Berkley

This study describes and tests a model of scientific inquiry as an evolving, organizational phenomenon. Arguments are derived from organizational ecology and evolutionary theory. The empirical subject of study is an epistemic community of scientists publishing on a research topic in physics: the string theoretic concept of "D-branes." The study uses evolutionary theory as a means of predicting change in the way members of the community choose concepts to communicate acceptable knowledge claims. It is argued that the pursuit of new knowledge is risky, because the reliability of a novel knowledge claim cannot be verified until after substantial resources have been invested. Using arguments from both philosophy of science and organizational ecology, it is suggested that scientists can mitigate and sensibly share the risks of knowledge discovery within the community by articulating their claims in legitimate forms, i.e., forms that are testable within and relevant to the community. Evidence from empirical studies of semantic usage suggests that the legitimacy of a knowledge claim is influenced by the characteristics of the concepts in which it is articulated. A model of conceptual retention, variation, and selection is then proposed for predicting the usage of concepts and conceptual co-occurrences in the future publications of the community, based on its past. Results substantially supported hypothesized retention and selection mechanisms. Future concept usage was predictable from previous concept usage, but was limited by conceptual carrying capacity as predicted by density dependence theory. Also as predicted, retention was stronger when the community showed a more cohesive social structure. Similarly, concepts that showed structural signatures of high testability and relevance were more likely to be selected after previous usage frequency was controlled for. By contrast, hypotheses for variation mechanisms were not supported. Surprisingly, concepts whose structural position suggested they would be easiest to discover through search processes were used less frequently, once previous usage frequency was controlled for. The study also makes a theoretical contribution by suggesting ways that evolutionary theory can be used to integrate findings from the study of science with insights from organizational communication. A variety of concrete directions for future studies of social and semantic network evolution are also proposed.

Chemical evolutionary games.

PubMed

Aristotelous, Andreas C; Durrett, Richard

2014-05-01

Inspired by the use of hybrid cellular automata in modeling cancer, we introduce a generalization of evolutionary games in which cells produce and absorb chemicals, and the chemical concentrations dictate the death rates of cells and their fitnesses. Our long term aim is to understand how the details of the interactions in a system with n species and m chemicals translate into the qualitative behavior of the system. Here, we study two simple 2×2 games with two chemicals and revisit the two and three species versions of the one chemical colicin system studied earlier by Durrett and Levin (1997). We find that in the 2×2 examples, the behavior of our new spatial model can be predicted from that of the mean field differential equation using ideas of Durrett and Levin (1994). However, in the three species colicin model, the system with diffusion does not have the coexistence which occurs in the lattices model in which sites interact with only their nearest neighbors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of an Evolutionary Algorithm for the ab Initio Discovery of Two-Dimensional Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revard, Benjamin Charles

Crystal structure prediction is an important first step on the path toward computational materials design. Increasingly robust methods have become available in recent years for computing many materials properties, but because properties are largely a function of crystal structure, the structure must be known before these methods can be brought to bear. In addition, structure prediction is particularly useful for identifying low-energy structures of subperiodic materials, such as two-dimensional (2D) materials, which may adopt unexpected structures that differ from those of the corresponding bulk phases. Evolutionary algorithms, which are heuristics for global optimization inspired by biological evolution, have proven to be a fruitful approach for tackling the problem of crystal structure prediction. This thesis describes the development of an improved evolutionary algorithm for structure prediction and several applications of the algorithm to predict the structures of novel low-energy 2D materials. The first part of this thesis contains an overview of evolutionary algorithms for crystal structure prediction and presents our implementation, including details of extending the algorithm to search for clusters, wires, and 2D materials, improvements to efficiency when running in parallel, improved composition space sampling, and the ability to search for partial phase diagrams. We then present several applications of the evolutionary algorithm to 2D systems, including InP, the C-Si and Sn-S phase diagrams, and several group-IV dioxides. This thesis makes use of the Cornell graduate school's "papers" option. Chapters 1 and 3 correspond to the first-author publications of Refs. [131] and [132], respectively, and chapter 2 will soon be submitted as a first-author publication. The material in chapter 4 is taken from Ref. [144], in which I share joint first-authorship. In this case I have included only my own contributions.

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography.

PubMed

Johnson, K P; Adler, F R; Cherry, J L

2000-04-01

Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.

Are there ergodic limits to evolution? Ergodic exploration of genome space and convergence

PubMed Central

McLeish, Tom C. B.

2015-01-01

We examine the analogy between evolutionary dynamics and statistical mechanics to include the fundamental question of ergodicity—the representative exploration of the space of possible states (in the case of evolution this is genome space). Several properties of evolutionary dynamics are identified that allow a generalization of the ergodic dynamics, familiar in dynamical systems theory, to evolution. Two classes of evolved biological structure then arise, differentiated by the qualitative duration of their evolutionary time scales. The first class has an ergodicity time scale (the time required for representative genome exploration) longer than available evolutionary time, and has incompletely explored the genotypic and phenotypic space of its possibilities. This case generates no expectation of convergence to an optimal phenotype or possibility of its prediction. The second, more interesting, class exhibits an evolutionary form of ergodicity—essentially all of the structural space within the constraints of slower evolutionary variables have been sampled; the ergodicity time scale for the system evolution is less than the evolutionary time. In this case, some convergence towards similar optima may be expected for equivalent systems in different species where both possess ergodic evolutionary dynamics. When the fitness maximum is set by physical, rather than co-evolved, constraints, it is additionally possible to make predictions of some properties of the evolved structures and systems. We propose four structures that emerge from evolution within genotypes whose fitness is induced from their phenotypes. Together, these result in an exponential speeding up of evolution, when compared with complete exploration of genomic space. We illustrate a possible case of application and a prediction of convergence together with attaining a physical fitness optimum in the case of invertebrate compound eye resolution. PMID:26640648

Are there ergodic limits to evolution? Ergodic exploration of genome space and convergence.

PubMed

McLeish, Tom C B

2015-12-06

We examine the analogy between evolutionary dynamics and statistical mechanics to include the fundamental question of ergodicity-the representative exploration of the space of possible states (in the case of evolution this is genome space). Several properties of evolutionary dynamics are identified that allow a generalization of the ergodic dynamics, familiar in dynamical systems theory, to evolution. Two classes of evolved biological structure then arise, differentiated by the qualitative duration of their evolutionary time scales. The first class has an ergodicity time scale (the time required for representative genome exploration) longer than available evolutionary time, and has incompletely explored the genotypic and phenotypic space of its possibilities. This case generates no expectation of convergence to an optimal phenotype or possibility of its prediction. The second, more interesting, class exhibits an evolutionary form of ergodicity-essentially all of the structural space within the constraints of slower evolutionary variables have been sampled; the ergodicity time scale for the system evolution is less than the evolutionary time. In this case, some convergence towards similar optima may be expected for equivalent systems in different species where both possess ergodic evolutionary dynamics. When the fitness maximum is set by physical, rather than co-evolved, constraints, it is additionally possible to make predictions of some properties of the evolved structures and systems. We propose four structures that emerge from evolution within genotypes whose fitness is induced from their phenotypes. Together, these result in an exponential speeding up of evolution, when compared with complete exploration of genomic space. We illustrate a possible case of application and a prediction of convergence together with attaining a physical fitness optimum in the case of invertebrate compound eye resolution.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after groove penetration.

NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 736 kg of Propellant Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shastry, Rohit; Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation solar-electric ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to validate the thruster service life modeling and to qualify the thruster propellant throughput capability. The thruster has set electric propulsion records for the longest operating duration, highest propellant throughput, and most total impulse demonstrated. At the time of this publication, the NEXT LDT has surpassed 42,100 h of operation, processed more than 736 kg of xenon propellant, and demonstrated greater than 28.1 MN s total impulse. Thruster performance has been steady with negligible degradation. The NEXT thruster design has mitigated several lifetime limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, including the NSTAR first failure mode, thereby drastically improving thruster capabilities. Component erosion rates and the progression of the predicted life-limiting erosion mechanism for the thruster compare favorably to pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models used in the thruster service life assessment. Service life model validation has been accomplished by the NEXT LDT. Assuming full-power operation until test article failure, the models and extrapolated erosion data predict penetration of the accelerator grid grooves after more than 45,000 hours of operation while processing over 800 kg of xenon propellant. Thruster failure due to degradation of the accelerator grid structural integrity is expected after

Evolution, mutations, and human longevity: European royal and noble families.

PubMed

Gavrilova, N S; Gavrilov, L A; Evdokushkina, G N; Semyonova, V G; Gavrilova, A L; Evdokushkina, N N; Kushnareva, Y E; Kroutko, V N; Andreyev AYu

1998-08-01

The evolutionary theory of aging predicts that the equilibrium gene frequency for deleterious mutations should increase with age at onset of mutation action because of weaker (postponed) selection against later-acting mutations. According to this mutation accumulation hypothesis, one would expect the genetic variability for survival (additive genetic variance) to increase with age. The ratio of additive genetic variance to the observed phenotypic variance (the heritability of longevity) can be estimated most reliably as the doubled slope of the regression line for offspring life span on paternal age at death. Thus, if longevity is indeed determined by late-acting deleterious mutations, one would expect this slope to become steeper at higher paternal ages. To test this prediction of evolutionary theory of aging, we computerized and analyzed the most reliable and accurate genealogical data on longevity in European royal and noble families. Offspring longevity for each sex (8409 records for males and 3741 records for females) was considered as a dependent variable in the multiple regression model and as a function of three independent predictors: paternal age at death (for estimation of heritability of life span), paternal age at reproduction (control for parental age effects), and cohort life expectancy (control for cohort and secular trends and fluctuations). We found that the regression slope for offspring longevity as a function of paternal longevity increases with paternal longevity, as predicted by the evolutionary theory of aging and by the mutation accumulation hypothesis in particular.

Local Geometry and Evolutionary Conservation of Protein Surfaces Reveal the Multiple Recognition Patches in Protein-Protein Interactions

PubMed Central

Laine, Elodie; Carbone, Alessandra

2015-01-01

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are essential to all biological processes and they represent increasingly important therapeutic targets. Here, we present a new method for accurately predicting protein-protein interfaces, understanding their properties, origins and binding to multiple partners. Contrary to machine learning approaches, our method combines in a rational and very straightforward way three sequence- and structure-based descriptors of protein residues: evolutionary conservation, physico-chemical properties and local geometry. The implemented strategy yields very precise predictions for a wide range of protein-protein interfaces and discriminates them from small-molecule binding sites. Beyond its predictive power, the approach permits to dissect interaction surfaces and unravel their complexity. We show how the analysis of the predicted patches can foster new strategies for PPIs modulation and interaction surface redesign. The approach is implemented in JET2, an automated tool based on the Joint Evolutionary Trees (JET) method for sequence-based protein interface prediction. JET2 is freely available at www.lcqb.upmc.fr/JET2. PMID:26690684

The Williams' legacy: A critical reappraisal of his nine predictions about the evolution of senescence.

PubMed

Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Lemaître, Jean-François

2017-12-01

Williams' evolutionary theory of senescence based on antagonistic pleiotropy has become a landmark in evolutionary biology, and more recently in biogerontology and evolutionary medicine. In his original article, Williams launched a set of nine "testable deductions" from his theory. Although some of these predictions have been repeatedly discussed, most have been overlooked and no systematic evaluation of the whole set of Williams' original predictions has been performed. For the sixtieth anniversary of the publication of the Williams' article, we provide an updated evaluation of all these predictions. We present the pros and cons of each prediction based on recent accumulation of both theoretical and empirical studies performed in the laboratory and in the wild. From our viewpoint, six predictions are mostly supported by our current knowledge at least under some conditions (although Williams' theory cannot thoroughly explain why for some of them). Three predictions, all involving the timing of senescence, are not supported. Our critical review of Williams' predictions highlights the importance of William's contribution and clearly demonstrates that, 60 years after its publication, his article does not show any sign of senescence. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T.; Lin, Z.; Lim, S.

2017-12-01

We present an integrated modeling framework to simulate groundwater level change under the dramatic increase of hydraulic fracturing water use in the Bakken Shale oil production area. The framework combines the agent-based model (ABM) with the Fox Hills-Hell Creek (FH-HC) groundwater model. In development of the ABM, institution theory is used to model the regulation policies from the North Dakota State Water Commission, while evolutionary programming and cognitive maps are used to model the social structure that emerges from the behavior of competing individual water businesses. Evolutionary programming allows individuals to select an appropriate strategy when annually applying for potential water use permits; whereas cognitive maps endow agent's ability and willingness to compete for more water sales. All agents have their own influence boundaries that inhibit their competitive behavior toward their neighbors but not to non-neighbors. The decision-making process is constructed and parameterized with both quantitative and qualitative information, i.e., empirical water use data and knowledge gained from surveys with stakeholders. By linking institution theory, evolutionary programming, and cognitive maps, our approach addresses a higher complexity of the real decision making process. Furthermore, this approach is a new exploration for modeling the dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural System. After integrating ABM with the FH-HC model, drought and limited water accessibility scenarios are simulated to predict FH-HC ground water level changes in the future. The integrated modeling framework of ABM and FH-HC model can be used to support making scientifically sound policies in water allocation and management.

Body size, performance and fitness in galapagos marine iguanas.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Romero, L Michael

2003-07-01

Complex organismal traits such as body size are influenced by innumerable selective pressures, making the prediction of evolutionary trajectories for those traits difficult. A potentially powerful way to predict fitness in natural systems is to study the composite response of individuals in terms of performance measures, such as foraging or reproductive performance. Once key performance measures are identified in this top-down approach, we can determine the underlying physiological mechanisms and gain predictive power over long-term evolutionary processes. Here we use marine iguanas as a model system where body size differs by more than one order of magnitude between island populations. We identified foraging efficiency as the main performance measure that constrains body size. Mechanistically, foraging performance is determined by food pasture height and the thermal environment, influencing intake and digestion. Stress hormones may be a flexible way of influencing an individual's response to low-food situations that may be caused by high population density, famines, or anthropogenic disturbances like oil spills. Reproductive performance, on the other hand, increases with body size and is mediated by higher survival of larger hatchlings from larger females and increased mating success of larger males. Reproductive performance of males may be adjusted via plastic hormonal feedback mechanisms that allow individuals to assess their social rank annually within the current population size structure. When integrated, these data suggest that reproductive performance favors increased body size (influenced by reproductive hormones), with an overall limit imposed by foraging performance (influenced by stress hormones). Based on our mechanistic understanding of individual performances we predicted an evolutionary increase in maximum body size caused by global warming trends. We support this prediction using specimens collected during 1905. We also show in a common-garden experiment that body size may have a genetic component in iguanids. This 'performance paradigm' allows predictions about adaptive evolution in natural populations.

Evolving ecological networks and the emergence of biodiversity patterns across temperature gradients.

PubMed

Stegen, James C; Ferriere, Regis; Enquist, Brian J

2012-03-22

In ectothermic organisms, it is hypothesized that metabolic rates mediate influences of temperature on the ecological and evolutionary processes governing biodiversity. However, it is unclear how and to what extent the influence of temperature on metabolism scales up to shape large-scale diversity patterns. In order to clarify the roles of temperature and metabolism, new theory is needed. Here, we establish such theory and model eco-evolutionary dynamics of trophic networks along a broad temperature gradient. In the model temperature can influence, via metabolism, resource supply, consumers' vital rates and mutation rate. Mutation causes heritable variation in consumer body size, which diversifies and governs consumer function in the ecological network. The model predicts diversity to increase with temperature if resource supply is temperature-dependent, whereas temperature-dependent consumer vital rates cause diversity to decrease with increasing temperature. When combining both thermal dependencies, a unimodal temperature-diversity pattern evolves, which is reinforced by temperature-dependent mutation rate. Studying coexistence criteria for two consumers showed that these outcomes are owing to temperature effects on mutual invasibility and facilitation. Our theory shows how and why metabolism can influence diversity, generates predictions useful for understanding biodiversity gradients and represents an extendable framework that could include factors such as colonization history and niche conservatism.

Sociality influences cultural complexity.

PubMed

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-07

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution.

Sociality influences cultural complexity

PubMed Central

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W.; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-01

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution. PMID:24225461

Evolution of density-dependent movement during experimental range expansions.

PubMed

Fronhofer, E A; Gut, S; Altermatt, F

2017-12-01

Range expansions and biological invasions are prime examples of transient processes that are likely impacted by rapid evolutionary changes. As a spatial process, range expansions are driven by dispersal and movement behaviour. Although it is widely accepted that dispersal and movement may be context-dependent, for instance density-dependent, and best represented by reaction norms, the evolution of density-dependent movement during range expansions has received little experimental attention. We therefore tested current theory predicting the evolution of increased movement at low densities at range margins using highly replicated and controlled range expansion experiments across multiple genotypes of the protist model system Tetrahymena thermophila. Although rare, we found evolutionary changes during range expansions even in the absence of initial standing genetic variation. Range expansions led to the evolution of negatively density-dependent movement at range margins. In addition, we report the evolution of increased intrastrain competitive ability and concurrently decreased population growth rates in range cores. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding movement and dispersal as evolving reaction norms and plastic life-history traits of central relevance for range expansions, biological invasions and the dynamics of spatially structured systems in general. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce

PubMed Central

Fawcett, Tim W.; Higginson, Andrew D.; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H.; Houston, Alasdair I.; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis. PMID:28614385

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce.

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Fawcett, Tim W; Higginson, Andrew D; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H; Houston, Alasdair I; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis.

The evolution of cultural adaptations: Fijian food taboos protect against dangerous marine toxins

PubMed Central

Henrich, Joseph; Henrich, Natalie

2010-01-01

The application of evolutionary theory to understanding the origins of our species' capacities for social learning has generated key insights into cultural evolution. By focusing on how our psychology has evolved to adaptively extract beliefs and practices by observing others, theorists have hypothesized how social learning can, over generations, give rise to culturally evolved adaptations. While much field research documents the subtle ways in which culturally transmitted beliefs and practices adapt people to their local environments, and much experimental work reveals the predicted patterns of social learning, little research connects real-world adaptive cultural traits to the patterns of transmission predicted by these theories. Addressing this gap, we show how food taboos for pregnant and lactating women in Fiji selectively target the most toxic marine species, effectively reducing a woman's chances of fish poisoning by 30 per cent during pregnancy and 60 per cent during breastfeeding. We further analyse how these taboos are transmitted, showing support for cultural evolutionary models that combine familial transmission with selective learning from locally prestigious individuals. In addition, we explore how particular aspects of human cognitive processes increase the frequency of some non-adaptive taboos. This case demonstrates how evolutionary theory can be deployed to explain both adaptive and non-adaptive behavioural patterns. PMID:20667878

Does aquatic foraging impact head shape evolution in snakes?

PubMed

Segall, Marion; Cornette, Raphaël; Fabre, Anne-Claire; Godoy-Diana, Ramiro; Herrel, Anthony

2016-08-31

Evolutionary trajectories are often biased by developmental and historical factors. However, environmental factors can also impose constraints on the evolutionary trajectories of organisms leading to convergence of morphology in similar ecological contexts. The physical properties of water impose strong constraints on aquatic feeding animals by generating pressure waves that can alert prey and potentially push them away from the mouth. These hydrodynamic constraints have resulted in the independent evolution of suction feeding in most groups of secondarily aquatic tetrapods. Despite the fact that snakes cannot use suction, they have invaded the aquatic milieu many times independently. Here, we test whether the aquatic environment has constrained head shape evolution in snakes and whether shape converges on that predicted by biomechanical models. To do so, we used three-dimensional geometric morphometrics and comparative, phylogenetically informed analyses on a large sample of aquatic snake species. Our results show that aquatic snakes partially conform to our predictions and have a narrower anterior part of the head and dorsally positioned eyes and nostrils. This morphology is observed, irrespective of the phylogenetic relationships among species, suggesting that the aquatic environment does indeed drive the evolution of head shape in snakes, thus biasing the evolutionary trajectory of this group of animals. © 2016 The Author(s).

Evolutionary genetics of host shifts in herbivorous insects: insights from the age of genomics.

PubMed

Vertacnik, Kim L; Linnen, Catherine R

2017-02-01

Adaptation to different host taxa is a key driver of insect diversification. Herbivorous insects are classic models for ecological and evolutionary research, but it is recent advances in sequencing, statistics, and molecular technologies that have cleared the way for investigations into the proximate genetic mechanisms underlying host shifts. In this review, we discuss how genome-scale data are revealing-at resolutions previously unimaginable-the genetic architecture of host-use traits, the causal loci underlying host shifts, and the predictability of host-use evolution. Collectively, these studies are providing novel insights into longstanding questions about host-use evolution. On the basis of this synthesis, we suggest that different host-use traits are likely to differ in their genetic architecture (number of causal loci and the nature of their genetic correlations) and genetic predictability (extent of gene or mutation reuse), indicating that any conclusions about the causes and consequences of host-use evolution will depend heavily on which host-use traits are investigated. To draw robust conclusions and identify general patterns in host-use evolution, we argue that investigation of diverse host-use traits and identification of causal genes and mutations should be the top priorities for future studies on the evolutionary genetics of host shifts. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

A procedure for utilization of a damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, David C.; Allen, David H.; Harris, Charles E.

1992-01-01

Described here is the procedure for utilizing a damage constitutive model to predict progressive damage growth in laminated composites. In this model, the effects of the internal damage are represented by strain-like second order tensorial damage variables and enter the analysis through damage dependent ply level and laminate level constitutive equations. The growth of matrix cracks due to fatigue loading is predicted by an experimentally based damage evolutionary relationship. This model is incorporated into a computer code called FLAMSTR. This code is capable of predicting the constitutive response and matrix crack damage accumulation in fatigue loaded laminated composites. The structure and usage of FLAMSTR are presented along with sample input and output files to assist the code user. As an example problem, an analysis of crossply laminates subjected to two stage fatigue loading was conducted and the resulting damage accumulation and stress redistribution were examined to determine the effect of variations in fatigue load amplitude applied during the first stage of the load history. It was found that the model predicts a significant loading history effect on damage evolution.

Beyond existence and aiming outside the laboratory: estimating frequency-dependent and pay-off-biased social learning strategies.

PubMed

McElreath, Richard; Bell, Adrian V; Efferson, Charles; Lubell, Mark; Richerson, Peter J; Waring, Timothy

2008-11-12

The existence of social learning has been confirmed in diverse taxa, from apes to guppies. In order to advance our understanding of the consequences of social transmission and evolution of behaviour, however, we require statistical tools that can distinguish among diverse social learning strategies. In this paper, we advance two main ideas. First, social learning is diverse, in the sense that individuals can take advantage of different kinds of information and combine them in different ways. Examining learning strategies for different information conditions illuminates the more detailed design of social learning. We construct and analyse an evolutionary model of diverse social learning heuristics, in order to generate predictions and illustrate the impact of design differences on an organism's fitness. Second, in order to eventually escape the laboratory and apply social learning models to natural behaviour, we require statistical methods that do not depend upon tight experimental control. Therefore, we examine strategic social learning in an experimental setting in which the social information itself is endogenous to the experimental group, as it is in natural settings. We develop statistical models for distinguishing among different strategic uses of social information. The experimental data strongly suggest that most participants employ a hierarchical strategy that uses both average observed pay-offs of options as well as frequency information, the same model predicted by our evolutionary analysis to dominate a wide range of conditions.

Evolutionary Design of Convolutional Neural Networks for Human Activity Recognition in Sensor-Rich Environments.

PubMed

Baldominos, Alejandro; Saez, Yago; Isasi, Pedro

2018-04-23

Human activity recognition is a challenging problem for context-aware systems and applications. It is gaining interest due to the ubiquity of different sensor sources, wearable smart objects, ambient sensors, etc. This task is usually approached as a supervised machine learning problem, where a label is to be predicted given some input data, such as the signals retrieved from different sensors. For tackling the human activity recognition problem in sensor network environments, in this paper we propose the use of deep learning (convolutional neural networks) to perform activity recognition using the publicly available OPPORTUNITY dataset. Instead of manually choosing a suitable topology, we will let an evolutionary algorithm design the optimal topology in order to maximize the classification F1 score. After that, we will also explore the performance of committees of the models resulting from the evolutionary process. Results analysis indicates that the proposed model was able to perform activity recognition within a heterogeneous sensor network environment, achieving very high accuracies when tested with new sensor data. Based on all conducted experiments, the proposed neuroevolutionary system has proved to be able to systematically find a classification model which is capable of outperforming previous results reported in the state-of-the-art, showing that this approach is useful and improves upon previously manually-designed architectures.

Evolutionary Design of Convolutional Neural Networks for Human Activity Recognition in Sensor-Rich Environments

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Human activity recognition is a challenging problem for context-aware systems and applications. It is gaining interest due to the ubiquity of different sensor sources, wearable smart objects, ambient sensors, etc. This task is usually approached as a supervised machine learning problem, where a label is to be predicted given some input data, such as the signals retrieved from different sensors. For tackling the human activity recognition problem in sensor network environments, in this paper we propose the use of deep learning (convolutional neural networks) to perform activity recognition using the publicly available OPPORTUNITY dataset. Instead of manually choosing a suitable topology, we will let an evolutionary algorithm design the optimal topology in order to maximize the classification F1 score. After that, we will also explore the performance of committees of the models resulting from the evolutionary process. Results analysis indicates that the proposed model was able to perform activity recognition within a heterogeneous sensor network environment, achieving very high accuracies when tested with new sensor data. Based on all conducted experiments, the proposed neuroevolutionary system has proved to be able to systematically find a classification model which is capable of outperforming previous results reported in the state-of-the-art, showing that this approach is useful and improves upon previously manually-designed architectures. PMID:29690587

A mechanistic stress model of protein evolution accounts for site-specific evolutionary rates and their relationship with packing density and flexibility

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Protein sites evolve at different rates due to functional and biophysical constraints. It is usually considered that the main structural determinant of a site’s rate of evolution is its Relative Solvent Accessibility (RSA). However, a recent comparative study has shown that the main structural determinant is the site’s Local Packing Density (LPD). LPD is related with dynamical flexibility, which has also been shown to correlate with sequence variability. Our purpose is to investigate the mechanism that connects a site’s LPD with its rate of evolution. Results We consider two models: an empirical Flexibility Model and a mechanistic Stress Model. The Flexibility Model postulates a linear increase of site-specific rate of evolution with dynamical flexibility. The Stress Model, introduced here, models mutations as random perturbations of the protein’s potential energy landscape, for which we use simple Elastic Network Models (ENMs). To account for natural selection we assume a single active conformation and use basic statistical physics to derive a linear relationship between site-specific evolutionary rates and the local stress of the mutant’s active conformation. We compare both models on a large and diverse dataset of enzymes. In a protein-by-protein study we found that the Stress Model outperforms the Flexibility Model for most proteins. Pooling all proteins together we show that the Stress Model is strongly supported by the total weight of evidence. Moreover, it accounts for the observed nonlinear dependence of sequence variability on flexibility. Finally, when mutational stress is controlled for, there is very little remaining correlation between sequence variability and dynamical flexibility. Conclusions We developed a mechanistic Stress Model of evolution according to which the rate of evolution of a site is predicted to depend linearly on the local mutational stress of the active conformation. Such local stress is proportional to LPD, so that this model explains the relationship between LPD and evolutionary rate. Moreover, the model also accounts for the nonlinear dependence between evolutionary rate and dynamical flexibility. PMID:24716445

Protein 8-class secondary structure prediction using conditional neural fields.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Feng; Peng, Jian; Xu, Jinbo

2011-10-01

Compared with the protein 3-class secondary structure (SS) prediction, the 8-class prediction gains less attention and is also much more challenging, especially for proteins with few sequence homologs. This paper presents a new probabilistic method for 8-class SS prediction using conditional neural fields (CNFs), a recently invented probabilistic graphical model. This CNF method not only models the complex relationship between sequence features and SS, but also exploits the interdependency among SS types of adjacent residues. In addition to sequence profiles, our method also makes use of non-evolutionary information for SS prediction. Tested on the CB513 and RS126 data sets, our method achieves Q8 accuracy of 64.9 and 64.7%, respectively, which are much better than the SSpro8 web server (51.0 and 48.0%, respectively). Our method can also be used to predict other structure properties (e.g. solvent accessibility) of a protein or the SS of RNA. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Application of Neural Network Optimized by Mind Evolutionary Computation in Building Energy Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chen; Zhong-Cheng, Wu; Hong, Lv

2018-03-01

Building Energy forecasting plays an important role in energy management and plan. Using mind evolutionary algorithm to find the optimal network weights and threshold, to optimize the BP neural network, can overcome the problem of the BP neural network into a local minimum point. The optimized network is used for time series prediction, and the same month forecast, to get two predictive values. Then two kinds of predictive values are put into neural network, to get the final forecast value. The effectiveness of the method was verified by experiment with the energy value of three buildings in Hefei.

Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect.

PubMed

Borregaard, Michael K; Amorim, Isabel R; Borges, Paulo A V; Cabral, Juliano S; Fernández-Palacios, José M; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J; Olesen, Jens M; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Triantis, Konstantinos A; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J

2017-05-01

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non-equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological-evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space-for-time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local-scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non-native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A Model of the Pulsating Extremely Low-mass White Dwarf Precursor WASP 0247–25B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Istrate, A. G.; Fontaine, G.; Heuser, C., E-mail: istrate@uwm.edu

We present an analysis of the evolutionary and pulsation properties of the extremely low-mass white dwarf precursor (B) component of the double-lined eclipsing system WASP 0247−25. Given that the fundamental parameters of that star have been obtained previously at a unique level of precision, WASP 0247−25B represents the ideal case for testing evolutionary models of this newly found category of pulsators. Taking into account the known constraints on the mass, orbital period, effective temperature, surface gravity, and atmospheric composition, we present a model that is compatible with these constraints and show pulsation modes that have periods very close to themore » observed values. Importantly, these modes are predicted to be excited. Although the overall consistency remains perfectible, the observable properties of WASP 0247−25B are closely reproduced. A key ingredient of our binary evolutionary models is represented by rotational mixing as the main competitor against gravitational settling. Depending on assumptions made about the values of the degree index ℓ for the observed pulsation modes, we found three possible seismic solutions. We discuss two tests, rotational splitting and multicolor photometry, that should readily identify the modes and discriminate between these solutions. However, this will require improved temporal resolution and higher S/N observations, which are currently unavailable.« less

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

Game theory in the death galaxy: interaction of cancer and stromal cells in tumour microenvironment.

PubMed

Wu, Amy; Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D; Sturm, James C; Austin, Robert H

2014-08-06

Preventing relapse is the major challenge to effective therapy in cancer. Within the tumour, stromal (ST) cells play an important role in cancer progression and the emergence of drug resistance. During cancer treatment, the fitness of cancer cells can be enhanced by ST cells because their molecular signalling interaction delays the drug-induced apoptosis of cancer cells. On the other hand, competition among cancer and ST cells for space or resources should not be ignored. We explore the population dynamics of multiple myeloma (MM) versus bone marrow ST cells by using an experimental microecology that we call the death galaxy, with a stable drug gradient and connected microhabitats. Evolutionary game theory is a quantitative way to capture the frequency-dependent nature of interactive populations. Therefore, we use evolutionary game theory to model the populations in the death galaxy with the gradients of pay-offs and successfully predict the future densities of MM and ST cells. We discuss the possible clinical use of such analysis for predicting cancer progression.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frolov, T.; Setyawan, W.; Kurtz, R. J.

We report a computational discovery of novel grain boundary structures and multiple grain boundary phases in elemental bcc tungsten. While grain boundary structures created by the - surface method as a union of two perfect half crystals have been studied extensively, it is known that the method has limitations and does not always predict the correct ground states. Here, we use a newly developed computational tool, based on evolutionary algorithms, to perform a grand-canonical search of high-angle symmetric tilt boundary in tungsten, and we find new ground states and multiple phases that cannot be described using the conventional structural unitmore » model. We use MD simulations to demonstrate that the new structures can coexist at finite temperature in a closed system, confirming these are examples of different GB phases. The new ground state is confirmed by first-principles calculations.Evolutionary grand-canonical search predicts novel grain boundary structures and multiple grain boundary phases in elemental body-centered cubic (bcc) metals represented by tungsten, tantalum and molybdenum.« less

Characterising RNA secondary structure space using information entropy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Comparative methods for RNA secondary structure prediction use evolutionary information from RNA alignments to increase prediction accuracy. The model is often described in terms of stochastic context-free grammars (SCFGs), which generate a probability distribution over secondary structures. It is, however, unclear how this probability distribution changes as a function of the input alignment. As prediction programs typically only return a single secondary structure, better characterisation of the underlying probability space of RNA secondary structures is of great interest. In this work, we show how to efficiently compute the information entropy of the probability distribution over RNA secondary structures produced for RNA alignments by a phylo-SCFG, and implement it for the PPfold model. We also discuss interpretations and applications of this quantity, including how it can clarify reasons for low prediction reliability scores. PPfold and its source code are available from http://birc.au.dk/software/ppfold/. PMID:23368905

Genetics of dispersal.

PubMed

Saastamoinen, Marjo; Bocedi, Greta; Cote, Julien; Legrand, Delphine; Guillaume, Frédéric; Wheat, Christopher W; Fronhofer, Emanuel A; Garcia, Cristina; Henry, Roslyn; Husby, Arild; Baguette, Michel; Bonte, Dries; Coulon, Aurélie; Kokko, Hanna; Matthysen, Erik; Niitepõld, Kristjan; Nonaka, Etsuko; Stevens, Virginie M; Travis, Justin M J; Donohue, Kathleen; Bullock, James M; Del Mar Delgado, Maria

2018-02-01

Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) review the empirical literature on the genetic basis of dispersal, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations of the evolution of dispersal have represented the genetics of dispersal, and (iii) discuss how the genetic basis of dispersal influences theoretical predictions of the evolution of dispersal and potential consequences. Dispersal has a detectable genetic basis in many organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals. Generally, there is evidence for significant genetic variation for dispersal or dispersal-related phenotypes or evidence for the micro-evolution of dispersal in natural populations. Dispersal is typically the outcome of several interacting traits, and this complexity is reflected in its genetic architecture: while some genes of moderate to large effect can influence certain aspects of dispersal, dispersal traits are typically polygenic. Correlations among dispersal traits as well as between dispersal traits and other traits under selection are common, and the genetic basis of dispersal can be highly environment-dependent. By contrast, models have historically considered a highly simplified genetic architecture of dispersal. It is only recently that models have started to consider multiple loci influencing dispersal, as well as non-additive effects such as dominance and epistasis, showing that the genetic basis of dispersal can influence evolutionary rates and outcomes, especially under non-equilibrium conditions. For example, the number of loci controlling dispersal can influence projected rates of dispersal evolution during range shifts and corresponding demographic impacts. Incorporating more realism in the genetic architecture of dispersal is thus necessary to enable models to move beyond the purely theoretical towards making more useful predictions of evolutionary and ecological dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. To inform these advances, empirical studies need to answer outstanding questions concerning whether specific genes underlie dispersal variation, the genetic architecture of context-dependent dispersal phenotypes and behaviours, and correlations among dispersal and other traits. © 2017 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Genetics of dispersal

PubMed Central

Bocedi, Greta; Cote, Julien; Legrand, Delphine; Guillaume, Frédéric; Wheat, Christopher W.; Fronhofer, Emanuel A.; Garcia, Cristina; Henry, Roslyn; Husby, Arild; Baguette, Michel; Bonte, Dries; Coulon, Aurélie; Kokko, Hanna; Matthysen, Erik; Niitepõld, Kristjan; Nonaka, Etsuko; Stevens, Virginie M.; Travis, Justin M. J.; Donohue, Kathleen; Bullock, James M.; del Mar Delgado, Maria

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) review the empirical literature on the genetic basis of dispersal, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations of the evolution of dispersal have represented the genetics of dispersal, and (iii) discuss how the genetic basis of dispersal influences theoretical predictions of the evolution of dispersal and potential consequences. Dispersal has a detectable genetic basis in many organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals. Generally, there is evidence for significant genetic variation for dispersal or dispersal‐related phenotypes or evidence for the micro‐evolution of dispersal in natural populations. Dispersal is typically the outcome of several interacting traits, and this complexity is reflected in its genetic architecture: while some genes of moderate to large effect can influence certain aspects of dispersal, dispersal traits are typically polygenic. Correlations among dispersal traits as well as between dispersal traits and other traits under selection are common, and the genetic basis of dispersal can be highly environment‐dependent. By contrast, models have historically considered a highly simplified genetic architecture of dispersal. It is only recently that models have started to consider multiple loci influencing dispersal, as well as non‐additive effects such as dominance and epistasis, showing that the genetic basis of dispersal can influence evolutionary rates and outcomes, especially under non‐equilibrium conditions. For example, the number of loci controlling dispersal can influence projected rates of dispersal evolution during range shifts and corresponding demographic impacts. Incorporating more realism in the genetic architecture of dispersal is thus necessary to enable models to move beyond the purely theoretical towards making more useful predictions of evolutionary and ecological dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. To inform these advances, empirical studies need to answer outstanding questions concerning whether specific genes underlie dispersal variation, the genetic architecture of context‐dependent dispersal phenotypes and behaviours, and correlations among dispersal and other traits. PMID:28776950

A field experiment demonstrating plant life-history evolution and its eco-evolutionary feedback to seed predator populations.

PubMed

Agrawal, Anurag A; Johnson, Marc T J; Hastings, Amy P; Maron, John L

2013-05-01

The extent to which evolutionary change occurs in a predictable manner under field conditions and how evolutionary changes feed back to influence ecological dynamics are fundamental, yet unresolved, questions. To address these issues, we established eight replicate populations of native common evening primrose (Oenothera biennis). Each population was planted with 18 genotypes in identical frequency. By tracking genotype frequencies with microsatellite DNA markers over the subsequent three years (up to three generations, ≈5,000 genotyped plants), we show rapid and consistent evolution of two heritable plant life-history traits (shorter life span and later flowering time). This rapid evolution was only partially the result of differential seed production; genotypic variation in seed germination also contributed to the observed evolutionary response. Since evening primrose genotypes exhibited heritable variation for resistance to insect herbivores, which was related to flowering time, we predicted that evolutionary changes in genotype frequencies would feed back to influence populations of a seed predator moth that specializes on O. biennis. By the conclusion of the experiment, variation in the genotypic composition among our eight replicate field populations was highly predictive of moth abundance. These results demonstrate how rapid evolution in field populations of a native plant can influence ecological interactions.

Heritable symbiosis: The advantages and perils of an evolutionary rabbit hole

PubMed Central

Bennett, Gordon M.; Moran, Nancy A.

2015-01-01

Many eukaryotes have obligate associations with microorganisms that are transmitted directly between generations. A model for heritable symbiosis is the association of aphids, a clade of sap-feeding insects, and Buchnera aphidicola, a gammaproteobacterium that colonized an aphid ancestor 150 million years ago and persists in almost all 5,000 aphid species. Symbiont acquisition enables evolutionary and ecological expansion; aphids are one of many insect groups that would not exist without heritable symbiosis. Receiving less attention are potential negative ramifications of symbiotic alliances. In the short run, symbionts impose metabolic costs. Over evolutionary time, hosts evolve dependence beyond the original benefits of the symbiosis. Symbiotic partners enter into an evolutionary spiral that leads to irreversible codependence and associated risks. Host adaptations to symbiosis (e.g., immune-system modification) may impose vulnerabilities. Symbiont genomes also continuously accumulate deleterious mutations, limiting their beneficial contributions and environmental tolerance. Finally, the fitness interests of obligate heritable symbionts are distinct from those of their hosts, leading to selfish tendencies. Thus, genes underlying the host–symbiont interface are predicted to follow a coevolutionary arms race, as observed for genes governing host–pathogen interactions. On the macroevolutionary scale, the rapid evolution of interacting symbiont and host genes is predicted to accelerate host speciation rates by generating genetic incompatibilities. However, degeneration of symbiont genomes may ultimately limit the ecological range of host species, potentially increasing extinction risk. Recent results for the aphid–Buchnera symbiosis and related systems illustrate that, whereas heritable symbiosis can expand ecological range and spur diversification, it also presents potential perils. PMID:25713367

Heritable symbiosis: The advantages and perils of an evolutionary rabbit hole.

PubMed

Bennett, Gordon M; Moran, Nancy A

2015-08-18

Many eukaryotes have obligate associations with microorganisms that are transmitted directly between generations. A model for heritable symbiosis is the association of aphids, a clade of sap-feeding insects, and Buchnera aphidicola, a gammaproteobacterium that colonized an aphid ancestor 150 million years ago and persists in almost all 5,000 aphid species. Symbiont acquisition enables evolutionary and ecological expansion; aphids are one of many insect groups that would not exist without heritable symbiosis. Receiving less attention are potential negative ramifications of symbiotic alliances. In the short run, symbionts impose metabolic costs. Over evolutionary time, hosts evolve dependence beyond the original benefits of the symbiosis. Symbiotic partners enter into an evolutionary spiral that leads to irreversible codependence and associated risks. Host adaptations to symbiosis (e.g., immune-system modification) may impose vulnerabilities. Symbiont genomes also continuously accumulate deleterious mutations, limiting their beneficial contributions and environmental tolerance. Finally, the fitness interests of obligate heritable symbionts are distinct from those of their hosts, leading to selfish tendencies. Thus, genes underlying the host-symbiont interface are predicted to follow a coevolutionary arms race, as observed for genes governing host-pathogen interactions. On the macroevolutionary scale, the rapid evolution of interacting symbiont and host genes is predicted to accelerate host speciation rates by generating genetic incompatibilities. However, degeneration of symbiont genomes may ultimately limit the ecological range of host species, potentially increasing extinction risk. Recent results for the aphid-Buchnera symbiosis and related systems illustrate that, whereas heritable symbiosis can expand ecological range and spur diversification, it also presents potential perils.

Understanding rapid evolution in predator‐prey interactions using the theory of fast‐slow dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Ellner, Stephen P

2010-11-01

The accumulation of evidence that ecologically important traits often evolve at the same time and rate as ecological dynamics (e.g., changes in species' abundances or spatial distributions) has outpaced theory describing the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes with comparable timescales. The disparity between experiment and theory is partially due to the high dimensionality of models that include both evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here we show how the theory of fast-slow dynamical systems can be used to reduce model dimension, and we use that body of theory to study a general predator-prey system exhibiting fast evolution in either the predator or the prey. Our approach yields graphical methods with predictive power about when new and unique dynamics (e.g., completely out-of-phase oscillations and cryptic dynamics) can arise in ecological systems exhibiting fast evolution. In addition, we derive analytical expressions for determining when such behavior arises and how evolution affects qualitative properties of the ecological dynamics. Finally, while the theory requires a separation of timescales between the ecological and evolutionary processes, our approach yields insight into systems where the rates of those processes are comparable and thus is a step toward creating a general ecoevolutionary theory.

The cultural evolution of fertility decline

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi

2016-01-01

Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

Enhancing Data Assimilation by Evolutionary Particle Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Abbaszadeh, P.; Yan, H.

2016-12-01

Particle Filters (PFs) have received increasing attention by the researchers from different disciplines in hydro-geosciences as an effective method to improve model predictions in nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamical systems. The implication of dual state and parameter estimation by means of data assimilation in hydrology and geoscience has evolved since 2005 from SIR-PF to PF-MCMC and now to the most effective and robust framework through evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the so-called EPF-MCMC. In this framework, the posterior distribution undergoes an evolutionary process to update an ensemble of prior states that more closely resemble realistic posterior probability distribution. The premise of this approach is that the particles move to optimal position using the GA optimization coupled with MCMC increasing the number of effective particles, hence the particle degeneracy is avoided while the particle diversity is improved. The proposed algorithm is applied on a conceptual and highly nonlinear hydrologic model and the effectiveness, robustness and reliability of the method in jointly estimating the states and parameters and also reducing the uncertainty is demonstrated for few river basins across the United States.

Optimization of Dosing for EGFR-Mutant Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer with Evolutionary Cancer Modeling

PubMed Central

Chmielecki, Juliann; Foo, Jasmine; Oxnard, Geoffrey R.; Hutchinson, Katherine; Ohashi, Kadoaki; Somwar, Romel; Wang, Lu; Amato, Katherine R.; Arcila, Maria; Sos, Martin L.; Socci, Nicholas D.; Viale, Agnes; de Stanchina, Elisa; Ginsberg, Michelle S.; Thomas, Roman K.; Kris, Mark G.; Inoue, Akira; Ladanyi, Marc; Miller, Vincent A.; Michor, Franziska; Pao, William

2012-01-01

Non–small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) that harbor mutations within the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene are sensitive to the tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) gefitinib and erlotinib. Unfortunately, all patients treated with these drugs will acquire resistance, most commonly as a result of a secondary mutation within EGFR (T790M). Because both drugs were developed to target wild-type EGFR, we hypothesized that current dosing schedules were not optimized for mutant EGFR or to prevent resistance. To investigate this further, we developed isogenic TKI-sensitive and TKI-resistant pairs of cell lines that mimic the behavior of human tumors. We determined that the drug-sensitive and drug-resistant EGFR-mutant cells exhibited differential growth kinetics, with the drug-resistant cells showing slower growth. We incorporated these data into evolutionary mathematical cancer models with constraints derived from clinical data sets. This modeling predicted alternative therapeutic strategies that could prolong the clinical benefit of TKIs against EGFR-mutant NSCLCs by delaying the development of resistance. PMID:21734175

The Evolutionary Basis of Risky Adolescent Behavior: Implications for Science, Policy, and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Bruce J.; Del Giudice, Marco; Dishion, Thomas J.; Figueredo, Aurelio Jose; Gray, Peter; Griskevicius, Vladas; Hawley, Patricia H.; Jacobs, W. Jake; James, Jenee; Volk, Anthony A.; Wilson, David Sloan

2012-01-01

This article proposes an evolutionary model of risky behavior in adolescence and contrasts it with the prevailing developmental psychopathology model. The evolutionary model contends that understanding the evolutionary functions of adolescence is critical to explaining why adolescents engage in risky behavior and that successful intervention…

Modeling myosin VI stepping dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehver, Riina

Myosin VI is a molecular motor that transports intracellular cargo as well as acts as an anchor. The motor has been measured to have unusually large step size variation and it has been reported to make both long forward and short inchworm-like forward steps, as well as step backwards. We have been developing a model that incorporates this diverse stepping behavior in a consistent framework. Our model allows us to predict the dynamics of the motor under different conditions and investigate the evolutionary advantages of the large step size variation.

Divergence of gastropod life history in contrasting thermal environments in a geothermal lake.

PubMed

Johansson, M P; Ermold, F; Kristjánsson, B K; Laurila, A

2016-10-01

Experiments using natural populations have provided mixed support for thermal adaptation models, probably because the conditions are often confounded with additional environmental factors like seasonality. The contrasting geothermal environments within Lake Mývatn, northern Iceland, provide a unique opportunity to evaluate thermal adaptation models using closely located natural populations. We conducted laboratory common garden and field reciprocal transplant experiments to investigate how thermal origin influences the life history of Radix balthica snails originating from stable cold (6 °C), stable warm (23 °C) thermal environments or from areas with seasonal temperature variation. Supporting thermal optimality models, warm-origin snails survived poorly at 6 °C in the common garden experiment and better than cold-origin and seasonal-origin snails in the warm habitat in the reciprocal transplant experiment. Contrary to thermal adaptation models, growth rate in both experiments was highest in the warm populations irrespective of temperature, indicating cogradient variation. The optimal temperatures for growth and reproduction were similar irrespective of origin, but cold-origin snails always had the lowest performance, and seasonal-origin snails often performed at an intermediate level compared to snails originating in either stable environment. Our results indicate that central life-history traits can differ in their mode of evolution, with survival following the predictions of thermal optimality models, whereas ecological constraints have shaped the evolution of growth rates in local populations. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Malaney, Jason L.; Payer, David C.; Cook, J.A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Status of the NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test After 30,352 Hours of Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Daniel A.

2010-01-01

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 30,352 hr of operation and processed 490 kg of xenon throughput--surpassing the NSTAR Extended Life Test hours demonstrated and more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

A solution to the collective action problem in between-group conflict with within-group inequality

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, Sergey; Fortunato, Laura

2014-01-01

Conflict with conspecifics from neighbouring groups over territory, mating opportunities and other resources is observed in many social organisms, including humans. Here we investigate the evolutionary origins of social instincts, as shaped by selection resulting from between-group conflict in the presence of a collective action problem. We focus on the effects of the differences between individuals on the evolutionary dynamics. Our theoretical models predict that high-rank individuals, who are able to usurp a disproportional share of resources in within-group interactions, will act seemingly altruistically in between-group conflict, expending more effort and often having lower reproductive success than their low-rank group-mates. Similar behaviour is expected for individuals with higher motivation, higher strengths or lower costs, or for individuals in a leadership position. Our theory also provides an evolutionary foundation for classical equity theory, and it has implications for the origin of coercive leadership and for reproductive skew theory. PMID:24667443

Palaeohistological Evidence for Ancestral High Metabolic Rate in Archosaurs.

PubMed

Legendre, Lucas J; Guénard, Guillaume; Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Cubo, Jorge

2016-11-01

Metabolic heat production in archosaurs has played an important role in their evolutionary radiation during the Mesozoic, and their ancestral metabolic condition has long been a matter of debate in systematics and palaeontology. The study of fossil bone histology provides crucial information on bone growth rate, which has been used to indirectly investigate the evolution of thermometabolism in archosaurs. However, no quantitative estimation of metabolic rate has ever been performed on fossils using bone histological features. Moreover, to date, no inference model has included phylogenetic information in the form of predictive variables. Here we performed statistical predictive modeling using the new method of phylogenetic eigenvector maps on a set of bone histological features for a sample of extant and extinct vertebrates, to estimate metabolic rates of fossil archosauromorphs. This modeling procedure serves as a case study for eigenvector-based predictive modeling in a phylogenetic context, as well as an investigation of the poorly known evolutionary patterns of metabolic rate in archosaurs. Our results show that Mesozoic theropod dinosaurs exhibit metabolic rates very close to those found in modern birds, that archosaurs share a higher ancestral metabolic rate than that of extant ectotherms, and that this derived high metabolic rate was acquired at a much more inclusive level of the phylogenetic tree, among non-archosaurian archosauromorphs. These results also highlight the difficulties of assigning a given heat production strategy (i.e., endothermy, ectothermy) to an estimated metabolic rate value, and confirm findings of previous studies that the definition of the endotherm/ectotherm dichotomy may be ambiguous. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Magnetic Inflation and Stellar Mass. II. On the Radii of Single, Rapidly Rotating, Fully Convective M-Dwarf Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesseli, Aurora Y.; Muirhead, Philip S.; Mann, Andrew W.; Mace, Greg

2018-06-01

Main-sequence, fully convective M dwarfs in eclipsing binaries are observed to be larger than stellar evolutionary models predict by as much as 10%–15%. A proposed explanation for this discrepancy involves effects from strong magnetic fields, induced by rapid rotation via the dynamo process. Although, a handful of single, slowly rotating M dwarfs with radius measurements from interferometry also appear to be larger than models predict, suggesting that rotation or binarity specifically may not be the sole cause of the discrepancy. We test whether single, rapidly rotating, fully convective stars are also larger than expected by measuring their R\\sin i distribution. We combine photometric rotation periods from the literature with rotational broadening (v\\sin i) measurements reported in this work for a sample of 88 rapidly rotating M dwarf stars. Using a Bayesian framework, we find that stellar evolutionary models underestimate the radii by 10 % {--}15{ % }-2.5+3, but that at higher masses (0.18 < M < 0.4 M Sun), the discrepancy is only about 6% and comparable to results from interferometry and eclipsing binaries. At the lowest masses (0.08 < M < 0.18 M Sun), we find that the discrepancy between observations and theory is 13%–18%, and we argue that the discrepancy is unlikely to be due to effects from age. Furthermore, we find no statistically significant radius discrepancy between our sample and the handful of M dwarfs with interferometric radii. We conclude that neither rotation nor binarity are responsible for the inflated radii of fully convective M dwarfs, and that all fully convective M dwarfs are larger than models predict.

Genome-wide selective sweeps and gene-specific sweeps in natural bacterial populations

DOE PAGES

Bendall, Matthew L.; Stevens, Sarah L.R.; Chan, Leong-Keat; ...

2016-01-08

Multiple models describe the formation and evolution of distinct microbial phylogenetic groups. These evolutionary models make different predictions regarding how adaptive alleles spread through populations and how genetic diversity is maintained. Processes predicted by competing evolutionary models, for example, genome-wide selective sweeps vs gene-specific sweeps, could be captured in natural populations using time-series metagenomics if the approach were applied over a sufficiently long time frame. Direct observations of either process would help resolve how distinct microbial groups evolve. Using a 9-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake (2005–2013), we explore changes in single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of genemore » gain and loss in 30 bacterial populations. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied by >1000-fold among populations. SNP allele frequencies also changed dramatically over time within some populations. Interestingly, nearly all SNP variants were slowly purged over several years from one population of green sulfur bacteria, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were lost from this population. Furthermore, these patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep in progress, a process predicted by the ‘ecotype model’ of speciation but not previously observed in nature. In contrast, other populations contained large, SNP-free genomic regions that appear to have swept independently through the populations prior to the study without purging diversity elsewhere in the genome. Finally, evidence for both genome-wide and gene-specific sweeps suggests that different models of bacterial speciation may apply to different populations coexisting in the same environment.« less

Multiobjective optimization of temporal processes.

PubMed

Song, Zhe; Kusiak, Andrew

2010-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic predictive-optimization framework of a nonlinear temporal process. Data-mining (DM) and evolutionary strategy algorithms are integrated in the framework for solving the optimization model. DM algorithms learn dynamic equations from the process data. An evolutionary strategy algorithm is then applied to solve the optimization problem guided by the knowledge extracted by the DM algorithm. The concept presented in this paper is illustrated with the data from a power plant, where the goal is to maximize the boiler efficiency and minimize the limestone consumption. This multiobjective optimization problem can be either transformed into a single-objective optimization problem through preference aggregation approaches or into a Pareto-optimal optimization problem. The computational results have shown the effectiveness of the proposed optimization framework.

Masting behaviour in a Mediterranean pine tree alters seed predator selection on reproductive output.

PubMed

Moreira, X; Abdala-Roberts, L; Zas, R; Merlo, E; Lombardero, M J; Sampedro, L; Mooney, K A

2016-11-01

Context-dependency in species interactions is widespread and can produce concomitant patterns of context-dependent selection. Masting (synchronous production of large seed crops at irregular intervals by a plant population) has been shown to reduce seed predation through satiation (reduction in rates of seed predation with increasing seed cone output) and thus represents an important source of context-dependency in plant-animal interactions. However, the evolutionary consequences of such dynamics are not well understood. Here we describe masting behaviour in a Mediterranean model pine species (Pinus pinaster) and present a test of the effects of masting on selection by seed predators on reproductive output. We predicted that masting, by enhancing seed predator satiation, could in turn strengthen positive selection by seed predators for larger cone output. For this we collected six-year data (spanning one mast year and five non-mast years) on seed cone production and seed cone predation rates in a forest genetic trial composed by 116 P. pinaster genotypes. Following our prediction, we found stronger seed predator satiation during the masting year, which in turn led to stronger seed predator selection for increased cone production relative to non-masting years. These findings provide evidence that masting can alter the evolutionary outcome of plant-seed predator interactions. More broadly, our findings highlight that changes in consumer responses to resource abundance represent a widespread mechanism for predicting and understanding context dependency in plant-consumer evolutionary dynamics. © 2016 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Modeling forest stand dynamics from optimal balances of carbon and nitrogen

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; Annikki Makela

2012-01-01

We formulate a dynamic evolutionary optimization problem to predict the optimal pattern by which carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are co-allocated to fine-root, leaf, and wood production, with the objective of maximizing height growth rate, year by year, in an even-aged stand. Height growth is maximized with respect to two adaptive traits, leaf N concentration and the ratio...

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

PubMed Central

Du, Xiangjun; King, Aaron A.; Woods, Robert J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2018-01-01

Inter-pandemic or seasonal influenza exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus’ antigenic evolution. We propose here a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States over 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of prediction ahead of season and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season. PMID:29070700

The Hot Horizontal-Branch Stars in NGC288 - Effects of Diffusion and Stratification on Their Atmospheric Parameters*

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Dreizler, S.; LeBlanc, F.; Khalack, V.; Michaud, G.; Richer, J.; Sweigart, Allen V.; Grundahl, F.

2014-01-01

Context. NGC288 is a globular cluster with a well developed blue horizontal branch covering the so-called u-jump which indicates the onset of diffusion. It is therefore well suited to study the effects of diffusion in blue horizontal branch (HB) stars. Aims. We compare observed abundances to predictions from stellar evolution models calculated with diffusion and from stratified atmospheric models. We verify the effect of using stratified model spectra to derive atmospheric parameters. In addition we investigate the nature of the overluminous blue HB stars around the u-jump. Methods. We define a new photometric index sz from uvby measurements that is gravity sensitive between 8 000K and 12 000 K. Using medium-resolution spectra and Stroemgren photometry we determine atmospheric parameters (Teff, logg) and abundances for the blue HB stars. We use both homogeneous and stratified model spectra for our spectroscopic analyses. Results. The atmospheric parameters and masses of the hot HB stars in NGC288 show a behaviour seen also in other clusters for temperatures between 9 000K and 14 000 K. Outside this temperature range, however, they follow rather the results found for such stars in (omega)Cen. The abundances derived from our observations are for most elements (except He and P) within the abundance range expected from evolutionary models that include the effects of atomic diffusion and assume a surface mixed mass of 10(exp -7) M. The abundances predicted by stratified model atmospheres are generally significantly more extreme than observed, except for Mg. The use of stratified model spectra to determine effective temperatures, surface gravities and masses moves the hotter stars to a closer agreement with canonical evolutionary predictions. Conclusions. Our results show definite promise towards solving the long-standing issue of surface gravity and mass discrepancies for hot HB stars, but there is still much work needed to arrive at a self-consistent solution.

Multiannual forecasting of seasonal influenza dynamics reveals climatic and evolutionary drivers.

PubMed

Axelsen, Jacob Bock; Yaari, Rami; Grenfell, Bryan T; Stone, Lewi

2014-07-01

Human influenza occurs annually in most temperate climatic zones of the world, with epidemics peaking in the cold winter months. Considerable debate surrounds the relative role of epidemic dynamics, viral evolution, and climatic drivers in driving year-to-year variability of outbreaks. The ultimate test of understanding is prediction; however, existing influenza models rarely forecast beyond a single year at best. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model to reveal multiannual predictability based on high-quality influenza surveillance data for Israel; the model fit is corroborated by simple metapopulation comparisons within Israel. Successful forecasts are driven by temperature, humidity, antigenic drift, and immunity loss. Essentially, influenza dynamics are a balance between large perturbations following significant antigenic jumps, interspersed with nonlinear epidemic dynamics tuned by climatic forcing.

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution.

PubMed

Potts, Richard; Faith, J Tyler

2015-10-01

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin--all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological, sedimentary, and paleolandscape evidence illustrates the potential influence of prolonged high variability on the origin and spread of critical adaptations and lineages in the evolution of Homo. The growing body of data concerning environmental dynamics supports the idea that the evolution of adaptability in response to climate and overall ecological instability represents a unifying theme in hominin evolutionary history. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-03-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses.

PubMed

Zaneveld, Jesse R R; Thurber, Rebecca L V

2014-01-01

Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses.

Doves and hawks in economics revisited: An evolutionary quantum game theory based analysis of financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanauske, Matthias; Kunz, Jennifer; Bernius, Steffen; König, Wolfgang

2010-11-01

The last financial and economic crisis demonstrated the dysfunctional long-term effects of aggressive behaviour in financial markets. Yet, evolutionary game theory predicts that under the condition of strategic dependence a certain degree of aggressive behaviour remains within a given population of agents. However, as a consequence of the financial crisis, it would be desirable to change the “rules of the game” in a way that prevents the occurrence of any aggressive behaviour and thereby also the danger of market crashes. The paper picks up this aspect. Through the extension of the well-known hawk-dove game by a quantum approach, we can show that dependent on entanglement, evolutionary stable strategies also can emerge, which are not predicted by the classical evolutionary game theory and where the total economic population uses a non-aggressive quantum strategy.

Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold.

PubMed

Bauch, Chris T; Bhattacharyya, Samit

2012-01-01

Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A "free rider" effect may be partly responsible: vaccine-generated herd immunity can reduce disease incidence to such low levels that real or imagined vaccine risks appear large in comparison, causing individuals to cease vaccinating. This implies a feedback loop between disease prevalence and strategic individual vaccinating behavior. Here, we analyze a model based on evolutionary game theory that captures this feedback in the context of vaccine scares, and that also includes social learning. Vaccine risk perception evolves over time according to an exogenously imposed curve. We test the model against vaccine coverage data and disease incidence data from two vaccine scares in England & Wales: the whole cell pertussis vaccine scare and the MMR vaccine scare. The model fits vaccine coverage data from both vaccine scares relatively well. Moreover, the model can explain the vaccine coverage data more parsimoniously than most competing models without social learning and/or feedback (hence, adding social learning and feedback to a vaccine scare model improves model fit with little or no parsimony penalty). Under some circumstances, the model can predict future vaccine coverage and disease incidence--up to 10 years in advance in the case of pertussis--including specific qualitative features of the dynamics, such as future incidence peaks and undulations in vaccine coverage due to the population's response to changing disease incidence. Vaccine scares could become more common as eradication goals are approached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist mitigation efforts.

Predicting protein contact map using evolutionary and physical constraints by integer programming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiyong; Xu, Jinbo

2013-07-01

Protein contact map describes the pairwise spatial and functional relationship of residues in a protein and contains key information for protein 3D structure prediction. Although studied extensively, it remains challenging to predict contact map using only sequence information. Most existing methods predict the contact map matrix element-by-element, ignoring correlation among contacts and physical feasibility of the whole-contact map. A couple of recent methods predict contact map by using mutual information, taking into consideration contact correlation and enforcing a sparsity restraint, but these methods demand for a very large number of sequence homologs for the protein under consideration and the resultant contact map may be still physically infeasible. This article presents a novel method PhyCMAP for contact map prediction, integrating both evolutionary and physical restraints by machine learning and integer linear programming. The evolutionary restraints are much more informative than mutual information, and the physical restraints specify more concrete relationship among contacts than the sparsity restraint. As such, our method greatly reduces the solution space of the contact map matrix and, thus, significantly improves prediction accuracy. Experimental results confirm that PhyCMAP outperforms currently popular methods no matter how many sequence homologs are available for the protein under consideration. http://raptorx.uchicago.edu.

A priori and a posteriori approaches for finding genes of evolutionary interest in non-model species: osmoregulatory genes in the kidney transcriptome of the desert rodent Dipodomys spectabilis (banner-tailed kangaroo rat).

PubMed

Marra, Nicholas J; Eo, Soo Hyung; Hale, Matthew C; Waser, Peter M; DeWoody, J Andrew

2012-12-01

One common goal in evolutionary biology is the identification of genes underlying adaptive traits of evolutionary interest. Recently next-generation sequencing techniques have greatly facilitated such evolutionary studies in species otherwise depauperate of genomic resources. Kangaroo rats (Dipodomys sp.) serve as exemplars of adaptation in that they inhabit extremely arid environments, yet require no drinking water because of ultra-efficient kidney function and osmoregulation. As a basis for identifying water conservation genes in kangaroo rats, we conducted a priori bioinformatics searches in model rodents (Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus) to identify candidate genes with known or suspected osmoregulatory function. We then obtained 446,758 reads via 454 pyrosequencing to characterize genes expressed in the kidney of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis). We also determined candidates a posteriori by identifying genes that were overexpressed in the kidney. The kangaroo rat sequences revealed nine different a priori candidate genes predicted from our Mus and Rattus searches, as well as 32 a posteriori candidate genes that were overexpressed in kidney. Mutations in two of these genes, Slc12a1 and Slc12a3, cause human renal diseases that result in the inability to concentrate urine. These genes are likely key determinants of physiological water conservation in desert rodents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the evolution of misunderstandings about evolutionary psychology.

PubMed

Young, J; Persell, R

2000-04-01

Some of the controversy surrounding evolutionary explanations of human behavior may be due to cognitive information-processing patterns that are themselves the result of evolutionary processes. Two such patterns are (1) the tendency to oversimplify information so as to reduce demand on cognitive resources and (2) our strong desire to generate predictability and stability from perceptions of the external world. For example, research on social stereotyping has found that people tend to focus automatically on simplified social-categorical information, to use such information when deciding how to behave, and to rely on such information even in the face of contradictory evidence. Similarly, an undying debate over nature vs. nurture is shaped by various data-reduction strategies that frequently oversimplify, and thus distort, the intent of the supporting arguments. This debate is also often marked by an assumption that either the nature or the nurture domain may be justifiably excluded at an explanatory level because one domain appears to operate in a sufficiently stable and predictable way for a particular argument. As a result, critiques in-veighed against evolutionary explanations of behavior often incorporate simplified--and erroneous--assumptions about either the mechanics of how evolution operates or the inevitable implications of evolution for understanding human behavior. The influences of these tendencies are applied to a discussion of the heritability of behavioral characteristics. It is suggested that the common view that Mendelian genetics can explain the heritability of complex behaviors, with a one-gene-one-trait process, is misguided. Complex behaviors are undoubtedly a product of a more complex interaction between genes and environment, ensuring that both nature and nurture must be accommodated in a yet-to-be-developed post-Mendelian model of genetic influence. As a result, current public perceptions of evolutionary explanations of behavior are handicapped by the lack of clear articulation of the relationship between inherited genes and manifest behavior.

The evolution of the competition-dispersal trade-off affects α- and β-diversity in a heterogeneous metacommunity.

PubMed

Laroche, Fabien; Jarne, Philippe; Perrot, Thomas; Massol, Francois

2016-04-27

Difference in dispersal ability is a key driver of species coexistence in metacommunities. However, the available frameworks for interpreting species diversity patterns in natura often overlook trade-offs and evolutionary constraints associated with dispersal. Here, we build a metacommunity model accounting for dispersal evolution and a competition-dispersal trade-off. Depending on the distribution of carrying capacities among communities, species dispersal values are distributed either around a single strategy (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS), or around distinct strategies (evolutionary branching, EB). We show that limited dispersal generates spatial aggregation of dispersal traits in ESS and EB scenarios, and that the competition-dispersal trade-off strengthens the pattern in the EB scenario. Importantly, individuals in larger (respectively (resp.) smaller) communities tend to harbour lower (resp. higher) dispersal, especially under the EB scenario. We explore how dispersal evolution affects species diversity patterns by comparing those from our model to the predictions of a neutral metacommunity model. The most marked difference is detected under EB, with distinctive values of both α- and β-diversity (e.g. the dissimilarity in species composition between small and large communities was significantly larger than neutral predictions). We conclude that, from an empirical perspective, jointly assessing community carrying capacity with species dispersal strategies should improve our understanding of diversity patterns in metacommunities. © 2016 The Author(s).

A New Scheme to Characterize and Identify Protein Ubiquitination Sites.

PubMed

Nguyen, Van-Nui; Huang, Kai-Yao; Huang, Chien-Hsun; Lai, K Robert; Lee, Tzong-Yi

2017-01-01

Protein ubiquitination, involving the conjugation of ubiquitin on lysine residue, serves as an important modulator of many cellular functions in eukaryotes. Recent advancements in proteomic technology have stimulated increasing interest in identifying ubiquitination sites. However, most computational tools for predicting ubiquitination sites are focused on small-scale data. With an increasing number of experimentally verified ubiquitination sites, we were motivated to design a predictive model for identifying lysine ubiquitination sites for large-scale proteome dataset. This work assessed not only single features, such as amino acid composition (AAC), amino acid pair composition (AAPC) and evolutionary information, but also the effectiveness of incorporating two or more features into a hybrid approach to model construction. The support vector machine (SVM) was applied to generate the prediction models for ubiquitination site identification. Evaluation by five-fold cross-validation showed that the SVM models learned from the combination of hybrid features delivered a better prediction performance. Additionally, a motif discovery tool, MDDLogo, was adopted to characterize the potential substrate motifs of ubiquitination sites. The SVM models integrating the MDDLogo-identified substrate motifs could yield an average accuracy of 68.70 percent. Furthermore, the independent testing result showed that the MDDLogo-clustered SVM models could provide a promising accuracy (78.50 percent) and perform better than other prediction tools. Two cases have demonstrated the effective prediction of ubiquitination sites with corresponding substrate motifs.

Quantifying rates of evolutionary adaptation in response to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Sunday, Jennifer M; Crim, Ryan N; Harley, Christopher D G; Hart, Michael W

2011-01-01

The global acidification of the earth's oceans is predicted to impact biodiversity via physiological effects impacting growth, survival, reproduction, and immunology, leading to changes in species abundances and global distributions. However, the degree to which these changes will play out critically depends on the evolutionary rate at which populations will respond to natural selection imposed by ocean acidification, which remains largely unquantified. Here we measure the potential for an evolutionary response to ocean acidification in larval development rate in two coastal invertebrates using a full-factorial breeding design. We show that the sea urchin species Strongylocentrotus franciscanus has vastly greater levels of phenotypic and genetic variation for larval size in future CO(2) conditions compared to the mussel species Mytilus trossulus. Using these measures we demonstrate that S. franciscanus may have faster evolutionary responses within 50 years of the onset of predicted year-2100 CO(2) conditions despite having lower population turnover rates. Our comparisons suggest that information on genetic variation, phenotypic variation, and key demographic parameters, may lend valuable insight into relative evolutionary potentials across a large number of species.

Defensive traits exhibit an evolutionary trade-off and drive diversification in ants.

PubMed

Blanchard, Benjamin D; Moreau, Corrie S

2017-02-01

Evolutionary biologists have long predicted that evolutionary trade-offs among traits should constrain morphological divergence and species diversification. However, this prediction has yet to be tested in a broad evolutionary context in many diverse clades, including ants. Here, we reconstruct an expanded ant phylogeny representing 82% of ant genera, compile a new family-wide trait database, and conduct various trait-based analyses to show that defensive traits in ants do exhibit an evolutionary trade-off. In particular, the use of a functional sting negatively correlates with a suite of other defensive traits including spines, large eye size, and large colony size. Furthermore, we find that several of the defensive traits that trade off with a sting are also positively correlated with each other and drive increased diversification, further suggesting that these traits form a defensive suite. Our results support the hypothesis that trade-offs in defensive traits significantly constrain trait evolution and influence species diversification in ants. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The nearly neutral and selection theories of molecular evolution under the fisher geometrical framework: substitution rate, population size, and complexity.

PubMed

Razeto-Barry, Pablo; Díaz, Javier; Vásquez, Rodrigo A

2012-06-01

The general theories of molecular evolution depend on relatively arbitrary assumptions about the relative distribution and rate of advantageous, deleterious, neutral, and nearly neutral mutations. The Fisher geometrical model (FGM) has been used to make distributions of mutations biologically interpretable. We explored an FGM-based molecular model to represent molecular evolutionary processes typically studied by nearly neutral and selection models, but in which distributions and relative rates of mutations with different selection coefficients are a consequence of biologically interpretable parameters, such as the average size of the phenotypic effect of mutations and the number of traits (complexity) of organisms. A variant of the FGM-based model that we called the static regime (SR) represents evolution as a nearly neutral process in which substitution rates are determined by a dynamic substitution process in which the population's phenotype remains around a suboptimum equilibrium fitness produced by a balance between slightly deleterious and slightly advantageous compensatory substitutions. As in previous nearly neutral models, the SR predicts a negative relationship between molecular evolutionary rate and population size; however, SR does not have the unrealistic properties of previous nearly neutral models such as the narrow window of selection strengths in which they work. In addition, the SR suggests that compensatory mutations cannot explain the high rate of fixations driven by positive selection currently found in DNA sequences, contrary to what has been previously suggested. We also developed a generalization of SR in which the optimum phenotype can change stochastically due to environmental or physiological shifts, which we called the variable regime (VR). VR models evolution as an interplay between adaptive processes and nearly neutral steady-state processes. When strong environmental fluctuations are incorporated, the process becomes a selection model in which evolutionary rate does not depend on population size, but is critically dependent on the complexity of organisms and mutation size. For SR as well as VR we found that key parameters of molecular evolution are linked by biological factors, and we showed that they cannot be fixed independently by arbitrary criteria, as has usually been assumed in previous molecular evolutionary models.

The Nearly Neutral and Selection Theories of Molecular Evolution Under the Fisher Geometrical Framework: Substitution Rate, Population Size, and Complexity

PubMed Central

Razeto-Barry, Pablo; Díaz, Javier; Vásquez, Rodrigo A.

2012-01-01

The general theories of molecular evolution depend on relatively arbitrary assumptions about the relative distribution and rate of advantageous, deleterious, neutral, and nearly neutral mutations. The Fisher geometrical model (FGM) has been used to make distributions of mutations biologically interpretable. We explored an FGM-based molecular model to represent molecular evolutionary processes typically studied by nearly neutral and selection models, but in which distributions and relative rates of mutations with different selection coefficients are a consequence of biologically interpretable parameters, such as the average size of the phenotypic effect of mutations and the number of traits (complexity) of organisms. A variant of the FGM-based model that we called the static regime (SR) represents evolution as a nearly neutral process in which substitution rates are determined by a dynamic substitution process in which the population’s phenotype remains around a suboptimum equilibrium fitness produced by a balance between slightly deleterious and slightly advantageous compensatory substitutions. As in previous nearly neutral models, the SR predicts a negative relationship between molecular evolutionary rate and population size; however, SR does not have the unrealistic properties of previous nearly neutral models such as the narrow window of selection strengths in which they work. In addition, the SR suggests that compensatory mutations cannot explain the high rate of fixations driven by positive selection currently found in DNA sequences, contrary to what has been previously suggested. We also developed a generalization of SR in which the optimum phenotype can change stochastically due to environmental or physiological shifts, which we called the variable regime (VR). VR models evolution as an interplay between adaptive processes and nearly neutral steady-state processes. When strong environmental fluctuations are incorporated, the process becomes a selection model in which evolutionary rate does not depend on population size, but is critically dependent on the complexity of organisms and mutation size. For SR as well as VR we found that key parameters of molecular evolution are linked by biological factors, and we showed that they cannot be fixed independently by arbitrary criteria, as has usually been assumed in previous molecular evolutionary models. PMID:22426879

Divergent trait and environment relationships among parallel radiations in Pelargonium (Geraniaceae): a role for evolutionary legacy?

PubMed

Moore, Timothy E; Schlichting, Carl D; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Mocko, Kerri; Jones, Cynthia S

2018-05-11

Functional traits in closely related lineages are expected to vary similarly along common environmental gradients as a result of shared evolutionary and biogeographic history, or legacy effects, and as a result of biophysical tradeoffs in construction. We test these predictions in Pelargonium, a relatively recent evolutionary radiation. Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effects models assessed, at the subclade level, associations between plant height, leaf area, leaf nitrogen content and leaf mass per area (LMA), and five environmental variables capturing temperature and rainfall gradients across the Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Trait-trait integration was assessed via pairwise correlations within subclades. Of 20 trait-environment associations, 17 differed among subclades. Signs of regression coefficients diverged for height, leaf area and leaf nitrogen content, but not for LMA. Subclades also differed in trait-trait relationships and these differences were modulated by rainfall seasonality. Leave-one-out cross-validation revealed that whether trait variation was better predicted by environmental predictors or trait-trait integration depended on the clade and trait in question. Legacy signals in trait-environment and trait-trait relationships were apparently lost during the earliest diversification of Pelargonium, but then retained during subsequent subclade evolution. Overall, we demonstrate that global-scale patterns are poor predictors of patterns of trait variation at finer geographic and taxonomic scales. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Mate-sampling costs and sexy sons.

PubMed

Kokko, H; Booksmythe, I; Jennions, M D

2015-01-01

Costly female mating preferences for purely Fisherian male traits (i.e. sexual ornaments that are genetically uncorrelated with inherent viability) are not expected to persist at equilibrium. The indirect benefit of producing 'sexy sons' (Fisher process) disappears: in some models, the male trait becomes fixed; in others, a range of male trait values persist, but a larger trait confers no net fitness advantage because it lowers survival. Insufficient indirect selection to counter the direct cost of producing fewer offspring means that preferences are lost. The only well-cited exception assumes biased mutation on male traits. The above findings generally assume constant direct selection against female preferences (i.e. fixed costs). We show that if mate-sampling costs are instead derived based on an explicit account of how females acquire mates, an initially costly mating preference can coevolve with a male trait so that both persist in the presence or absence of biased mutation. Our models predict that empirically detecting selection at equilibrium will be difficult, even if selection was responsible for the location of the current equilibrium. In general, it appears useful to integrate mate sampling theory with models of genetic consequences of mating preferences: being explicit about the process by which individuals select mates can alter equilibria. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Asymmetric ecological conditions favor Red-Queen type of continued evolution over stasis.

PubMed

Nordbotten, Jan Martin; Stenseth, Nils C

2016-02-16

Four decades ago, Leigh Van Valen presented the Red Queen's hypothesis to account for evolution of species within a multispecies ecological community [Van Valen L (1973) Evol Theory 1(1):1-30]. The overall conclusion of Van Valen's analysis was that evolution would continue even in the absence of abiotic perturbations. Stenseth and Maynard Smith presented in 1984 [Stenseth NC, Maynard Smith J (1984) Evolution 38(4):870-880] a model for the Red Queen's hypothesis showing that both Red-Queen type of continuous evolution and stasis could result from a model with biotically driven evolution. However, although that contribution demonstrated that both evolutionary outcomes were possible, it did not identify which ecological conditions would lead to each of these evolutionary outcomes. Here, we provide, using a simple, yet general population-biologically founded eco-evolutionary model, such analytically derived conditions: Stasis will predominantly emerge whenever the ecological system contains only symmetric ecological interactions, whereas both Red-Queen and stasis type of evolution may result if the ecological interactions are asymmetrical, and more likely so with increasing degree of asymmetry in the ecological system (i.e., the more trophic interactions, host-pathogen interactions, and the like there are [i.e., +/- type of ecological interactions as well as asymmetric competitive (-/-) and mutualistic (+/+) ecological interactions]). In the special case of no between-generational genetic variance, our results also predict dynamics within these types of purely ecological systems.

An Evolutionary Game Theory Model of Spontaneous Brain Functioning.

PubMed

Madeo, Dario; Talarico, Agostino; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro; Mocenni, Chiara; Santarnecchi, Emiliano

2017-11-22

Our brain is a complex system of interconnected regions spontaneously organized into distinct networks. The integration of information between and within these networks is a continuous process that can be observed even when the brain is at rest, i.e. not engaged in any particular task. Moreover, such spontaneous dynamics show predictive value over individual cognitive profile and constitute a potential marker in neurological and psychiatric conditions, making its understanding of fundamental importance in modern neuroscience. Here we present a theoretical and mathematical model based on an extension of evolutionary game theory on networks (EGN), able to capture brain's interregional dynamics by balancing emulative and non-emulative attitudes among brain regions. This results in the net behavior of nodes composing resting-state networks identified using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), determining their moment-to-moment level of activation and inhibition as expressed by positive and negative shifts in BOLD fMRI signal. By spontaneously generating low-frequency oscillatory behaviors, the EGN model is able to mimic functional connectivity dynamics, approximate fMRI time series on the basis of initial subset of available data, as well as simulate the impact of network lesions and provide evidence of compensation mechanisms across networks. Results suggest evolutionary game theory on networks as a new potential framework for the understanding of human brain network dynamics.

How ecology shapes exploitation: a framework to predict the behavioural response of human and animal foragers along exploration-exploitation trade-offs.

PubMed

Monk, Christopher T; Barbier, Matthieu; Romanczuk, Pawel; Watson, James R; Alós, Josep; Nakayama, Shinnosuke; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Levin, Simon A; Arlinghaus, Robert

2018-06-01

Understanding how humans and other animals behave in response to changes in their environments is vital for predicting population dynamics and the trajectory of coupled social-ecological systems. Here, we present a novel framework for identifying emergent social behaviours in foragers (including humans engaged in fishing or hunting) in predator-prey contexts based on the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of a renewable natural resource. A qualitative framework is introduced that predicts when foragers should behave territorially, search collectively, act independently or switch among these states. To validate it, we derived quantitative predictions from two models of different structure: a generic mathematical model, and a lattice-based evolutionary model emphasising exploitation and exclusion costs. These models independently identified that the exploration difficulty and exploitation potential of the natural resource controls the social behaviour of resource exploiters. Our theoretical predictions were finally compared to a diverse set of empirical cases focusing on fisheries and aquatic organisms across a range of taxa, substantiating the framework's predictions. Understanding social behaviour for given social-ecological characteristics has important implications, particularly for the design of governance structures and regulations to move exploited systems, such as fisheries, towards sustainability. Our framework provides concrete steps in this direction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A Test of Pre-Main-Sequence Evolutionary Models across the Stellar/Substellar Boundary Based on Spectra of the Young Quadruple GG Tauri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Russel J.; Ghez, A. M.; Reid, I. Neill; Schultz, Greg

1999-08-01

We present spatially separated optical spectra of the components of the young hierarchical quadruple GG Tau. Spectra of GG Tau Aa and Ab (separation 0.25"~35 AU) were obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Spectra of GG Tau Ba and Bb (separation 1.48"~207 AU) were obtained with both the HIRES and the LRIS spectrographs on the W. M. Keck telescopes. The components of this minicluster, which span a wide range in spectral type (K7-M7), are used to test both evolutionary models and the temperature scale for very young, low-mass stars under the assumption of coeval formation. Of the evolutionary models tested, those of Baraffe et al. yield the most consistent ages when combined with a temperature scale intermediate between that of dwarfs and giants. The version of the Baraffe et al. models computed with a mixing length nearly twice the pressure scale height is of particular interest, as it predicts masses for GG Tau Aa and Ab that are in agreement with their dynamical mass estimate. Using this evolutionary model and a coeval (at 1.5 Myr) temperature scale, we find that the coldest component of the GG Tau system, GG Tau Bb, is substellar with a mass of 0.044+/-0.006 Msolar. This brown dwarf companion is especially intriguing as it shows signatures of accretion, although this accretion is not likely to alter its mass significantly. GG Tau Bb is currently the lowest mass, spectroscopically confirmed companion to a T Tauri star, and is one of the coldest, lowest mass T Tauri objects in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. Based partly on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555.

Coevolution of patch-type dependent emigration and patch-type dependent immigration.

PubMed

Weigang, Helene C

2017-08-07

The three phases of dispersal - emigration, transfer and immigration - are affecting each other and the former and latter decisions may depend on patch types. Despite the inevitable fact of the complexity of the dispersal process, patch-type dependencies of dispersal decisions modelled as emigration and immigration are usually missing in theoretical dispersal models. Here, I investigate the coevolution of patch-type dependent emigration and patch-type dependent immigration in an extended Hamilton-May model. The dispersing population inhabits a landscape structured into many patches of two types and disperses during a continuous-time season. The trait under consideration is a four dimensional vector consisting of two values for emigration probability from the patches and two values for immigration probability into the patches of each type. Using the adaptive dynamics approach I show that four qualitatively different dispersal strategies may evolve in different parameter regions, including a counterintuitive strategy, where patches of one type are fully dispersed from (emigration probability is one) but individuals nevertheless always immigrate into them during the dispersal season (immigration probability is one). I present examples of evolutionary branching in a wide parameter range, when the patches with high local death rate during the dispersal season guarantee a high expected disperser output. I find that two dispersal strategies can coexist after evolutionary branching: a strategy with full immigration only into the patches with high expected disperser output coexists with a strategy that immigrates into any patch. Stochastic simulations agree with the numerical predictions. Since evolutionary branching is also found when immigration evolves alone, the present study is adding coevolutionary constraints on the emigration traits and hence finds that the coevolution of a higher dimensional trait sometimes hinders evolutionary diversification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Experimental Study of Bacterial Evolution and Its Implications for the Modern Synthesis of Evolutionary Biology.

PubMed

O'Malley, Maureen A

2018-06-01

Since the 1940s, microbiologists, biochemists and population geneticists have experimented with the genetic mechanisms of microorganisms in order to investigate evolutionary processes. These evolutionary studies of bacteria and other microorganisms gained some recognition from the standard-bearers of the modern synthesis of evolutionary biology, especially Theodosius Dobzhansky and Ledyard Stebbins. A further period of post-synthesis bacterial evolutionary research occurred between the 1950s and 1980s. These experimental analyses focused on the evolution of population and genetic structure, the adaptive gain of new functions, and the evolutionary consequences of competition dynamics. This large body of research aimed to make evolutionary theory testable and predictive, by giving it mechanistic underpinnings. Although evolutionary microbiologists promoted bacterial experiments as methodologically advantageous and a source of general insight into evolution, they also acknowledged the biological differences of bacteria. My historical overview concludes with reflections on what bacterial evolutionary research achieved in this period, and its implications for the still-developing modern synthesis.

Biogeography predicts macro‐evolutionary patterning of gestural display complexity in a passerine family

PubMed Central

Miles, Meredith C.; Cheng, Samantha; Fuxjager, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

Gestural displays are incorporated into the signaling repertoire of numerous animal species. These displays range from complex signals that involve impressive and challenging maneuvers, to simpler displays or no gesture at all. The factors that drive this evolution remain largely unclear, and we therefore investigate this issue in New World blackbirds by testing how factors related to a species’ geographical distribution and social mating system predict macro‐evolutionary patterns of display elaboration. We report that species inhabiting temperate regions produce more complex displays than species living in tropical regions, and we attribute this to (i) ecological factors that increase the competitiveness of the social environment in temperate regions, and (ii) different evolutionary and geological contexts under which species in temperate and tropical regions evolved. Meanwhile, we find no evidence that social mating system predicts species differences in display complexity, which is consistent with the idea that gestural displays evolve independently of social mating system. Together, these results offer some of the first insight into the role played by geographic factors and evolutionary context in the evolution of the remarkable physical displays of birds and other vertebrates. PMID:28240772

AN ANGIOTENSIN II TYPE 1 RECEPTOR ACTIVATION SWITCH PATCH REVEALED THROUGH EVOLUTIONARY TRACE ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

Bonde, Marie Mi; Yao, Rong; Ma, Jian-Nong; Madabushi, Srinivasan; Haunsø, Stig; Burstein, Ethan S.; Whistler, Jennifer L.; Sheikh, Søren P.; Lichtarge, Olivier; Hansen, Jakob Lerche

2010-01-01

Seven transmembrane (7TM) or G protein-coupled receptors constitute a large superfamily of cell surface receptors sharing a structural motif of seven transmembrane spanning alpha helices. Their activation mechanism most likely involves concerted movements of the transmembrane helices, but remains to be completely resolved. Evolutionary Trace (ET) analysis is a computational method, which identifies clusters of functionally important residues by integrating information on evolutionary important residue variations with receptor structure. Combined with known mutational data, ET predicted a patch of residues in the cytoplasmic parts of TM2, TM3, and TM6 to form an activation switch that is common to all family A 7TM receptors. We tested this hypothesis in the rat Angiotensin II (Ang II) type 1 (AT1) receptor. The receptor has important roles in the cardiovascular system, but has also frequently been applied as a model for 7TM receptor activation and signaling. Six mutations: F66A, L67R, L70R, L119R, D125A, and I245F were targeted to the putative switch and assayed for changes in activation state by their ligand binding, signaling, and trafficking properties. All but one receptor mutant (that was not expressed well) displayed phenotypes associated with changed activation state, such as increased agonist affinity or basal activity, promiscuous activation, or constitutive internalization highlighting the importance of testing different signaling pathways. We conclude that this evolutionary important patch mediates interactions important for maintaining the inactive state. More broadly, these observations in the AT1 receptor are consistent with computational predictions of a generic role for this patch in 7TM receptor activation. PMID:20227396

The narrow-leaf syndrome: a functional and evolutionary approach to the form of fog-harvesting rosette plants.

PubMed

Martorell, Carlos; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2007-04-01

Plants that use fog as an important water-source frequently have a rosette growth habit. The performance of this morphology in relation to fog interception has not been studied. Some first-principles from physics predict that narrow leaves, together with other ancillary traits (large number and high flexibility of leaves, caudices, and/or epiphytism) which constitute the "narrow-leaf syndrome" should increase fog-interception efficiency. This was tested using aluminum models of rosettes that differed in leaf length, width and number and were exposed to artificial fog. The results were validated using seven species of Tillandsia and four species of xerophytic rosettes. The total amount of fog intercepted in rosette plants increased with total leaf area, while narrow leaves maximized interception efficiency (measured as interception per unit area). The number of leaves in the rosettes is physically constrained because wide-leafed plants can only have a few blades. At the limits of this constraint, net fog interception was independent of leaf form, but interception efficiency was maximized by large numbers of narrow leaves. Atmospheric Tillandsia species show the narrow-leaf syndrome. Their fog interception efficiencies were correlated to the ones predicted from aluminum-model data. In the larger xerophytic rosette species, the interception efficiency was greatest in plants showing the narrow-leaf syndrome. The adaptation to fog-harvesting in several narrow-leaved rosettes was tested for evolutionary convergence in 30 xerophytic rosette species using a comparative method. There was a significant evolutionary tendency towards the development of the narrow-leaf syndrome the closer the species grew to areas where fog is frequently available. This study establishes convergence in a very wide group of plants encompassing genera as contrasting as Tillandsia and Agave as a result of their dependence on fog.

Exploring plant defense theory in tall goldenrod, Solidago altissima.

PubMed

Heath, Jeremy J; Kessler, André; Woebbe, Eric; Cipollini, Don; Stireman, John O

2014-06-01

Understanding the evolutionary reasons for patterns of chemical defense in plants is an ongoing theoretical and empirical challenge. The goal is to develop a model that can reliably predict how defenses are distributed within the plant over space and time. This is difficult given that evolutionary, ecological, and physiological processes and tradeoffs can operate over different spatial and temporal scales. We evaluated the major predictions of two leading defense theories, the growth-differentiation balance hypothesis (GDBH) and optimal defense theory (ODT). To achieve this, enemies, fitness components, terpenoids, and protease inhibitors were measured in Solidago altissima and used to construct conventional univariate and structural equation models (SEMs). Leaf-tissue value indices extracted from an SEM revealed a strong correlation between tissue value and terpenoid defense that supports ODT. A tradeoff between serine protease inhibition and growth as well as an indirect tradeoff between growth and terpenoids manifested through galling insects supported the GDBH. Interestingly, there was a strong direct effect of terpenoids on rhizome mass, suggesting service to both storage and defense. The results support established theories but unknown genotypic traits explained much of the variation in defense, confirming the need to integrate emerging theories such as pollination constraints, defense syndromes, tolerance, mutualisms, and facilitation. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

PubMed Central

Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H.; Fonseca, Dina M.

2015-01-01

Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

Convergent evolution at the pathway level: predictable regulatory changes during flower color transitions.

PubMed

Larter, Maximilian; Dunbar-Wallis, Amy; Berardi, Andrea E; Smith, Stacey D

2018-06-07

The predictability of evolution, or whether lineages repeatedly follow the same evolutionary trajectories during phenotypic convergence remains an open question of evolutionary biology. In this study, we investigate evolutionary convergence at the biochemical pathway level and test the predictability of evolution using floral anthocyanin pigmentation, a trait with a well-understood genetic and regulatory basis. We reconstructed the evolution of floral anthocyanin content across 28 species of the Andean clade Iochrominae (Solanaceae) and investigated how shifts in pigmentation are related to changes in expression of 7 key anthocyanin pathway genes. We used phylogenetic multivariate analysis of gene expression to test for phenotypic and developmental convergence at a macroevolutionary scale. Our results show that the four independent losses of the ancestral pigment delphinidin involved convergent losses of expression of the three late pathway genes (F3'5'h, Dfr and Ans). Transitions between pigment types affecting floral hue (e.g. blue to red) involve changes to the expression of branching genes F3'h and F3'5'h, while the expression levels of early steps of the pathway are strongly conserved in all species. These patterns support the idea that the macroevolution of floral pigmentation follows predictable evolutionary trajectories to reach convergent phenotype space, repeatedly involving regulatory changes. This is likely driven by constraints at the pathway level, such as pleiotropy and regulatory structure.

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation.

PubMed

Duchêne, D A; Hua, X; Bromham, L

2017-10-01

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric-based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

PrePhyloPro: phylogenetic profile-based prediction of whole proteome linkages

PubMed Central

Niu, Yulong; Liu, Chengcheng; Moghimyfiroozabad, Shayan; Yang, Yi

2017-01-01

Direct and indirect functional links between proteins as well as their interactions as part of larger protein complexes or common signaling pathways may be predicted by analyzing the correlation of their evolutionary patterns. Based on phylogenetic profiling, here we present a highly scalable and time-efficient computational framework for predicting linkages within the whole human proteome. We have validated this method through analysis of 3,697 human pathways and molecular complexes and a comparison of our results with the prediction outcomes of previously published co-occurrency model-based and normalization methods. Here we also introduce PrePhyloPro, a web-based software that uses our method for accurately predicting proteome-wide linkages. We present data on interactions of human mitochondrial proteins, verifying the performance of this software. PrePhyloPro is freely available at http://prephylopro.org/phyloprofile/. PMID:28875072

Analysis of optimality in natural and perturbed metabolic networks

PubMed Central

Segrè, Daniel; Vitkup, Dennis; Church, George M.

2002-01-01

An important goal of whole-cell computational modeling is to integrate detailed biochemical information with biological intuition to produce testable predictions. Based on the premise that prokaryotes such as Escherichia coli have maximized their growth performance along evolution, flux balance analysis (FBA) predicts metabolic flux distributions at steady state by using linear programming. Corroborating earlier results, we show that recent intracellular flux data for wild-type E. coli JM101 display excellent agreement with FBA predictions. Although the assumption of optimality for a wild-type bacterium is justifiable, the same argument may not be valid for genetically engineered knockouts or other bacterial strains that were not exposed to long-term evolutionary pressure. We address this point by introducing the method of minimization of metabolic adjustment (MOMA), whereby we test the hypothesis that knockout metabolic fluxes undergo a minimal redistribution with respect to the flux configuration of the wild type. MOMA employs quadratic programming to identify a point in flux space, which is closest to the wild-type point, compatibly with the gene deletion constraint. Comparing MOMA and FBA predictions to experimental flux data for E. coli pyruvate kinase mutant PB25, we find that MOMA displays a significantly higher correlation than FBA. Our method is further supported by experimental data for E. coli knockout growth rates. It can therefore be used for predicting the behavior of perturbed metabolic networks, whose growth performance is in general suboptimal. MOMA and its possible future extensions may be useful in understanding the evolutionary optimization of metabolism. PMID:12415116

Pubertal timing and sexual risk behaviors among rural African American male youth: testing a model based on life history theory.

PubMed

Kogan, Steven M; Cho, Junhan; Simons, Leslie Gordon; Allen, Kimberly A; Beach, Steven R H; Simons, Ronald L; Gibbons, Frederick X

2015-04-01

Life History Theory (LHT), a branch of evolutionary biology, describes how organisms maximize their reproductive success in response to environmental conditions. This theory suggests that challenging environmental conditions will lead to early pubertal maturation, which in turn predicts heightened risky sexual behavior. Although largely confirmed among female adolescents, results with male youth are inconsistent. We tested a set of predictions based on LHT with a sample of 375 African American male youth assessed three times from age 11 to age 16. Harsh, unpredictable community environments and harsh, inconsistent, or unregulated parenting at age 11 were hypothesized to predict pubertal maturation at age 13; pubertal maturation was hypothesized to forecast risky sexual behavior, including early onset of intercourse, substance use during sexual activity, and lifetime numbers of sexual partners. Results were consistent with our hypotheses. Among African American male youth, community environments were a modest but significant predictor of pubertal timing. Among those youth with high negative emotionality, both parenting and community factors predicted pubertal timing. Pubertal timing at age 13 forecast risky sexual behavior at age 16. Results of analyses conducted to determine whether environmental effects on sexual risk behavior were mediated by pubertal timing were not significant. This suggests that, although evolutionary mechanisms may affect pubertal development via contextual influences for sensitive youth, the factors that predict sexual risk behavior depend less on pubertal maturation than LHT suggests.

Not by strength alone : children's conflict expectations follow the logic of the asymmetric war of attrition.

PubMed

Pietraszewski, David; Shaw, Alex

2015-03-01

The Asymmetric War of Attrition (AWA) model of animal conflict in evolutionary biology (Maynard Smith and Parker in Nature, 246, 15-18, 1976) suggests that an organism's decision to withdraw from a conflict is the result of adaptations designed to integrate the expected value of winning, discounted by the expected costs that would be incurred by continuing to compete, via sensitivity to proximate cues of how quickly each side can impose costs on the other (Resource Holding Potential), and how much each side will gain by winning. The current studies examine whether human conflict expectations follow the formalized logic of this model. Children aged 6-8 years were presented with third-party conflict vignettes and were then asked to predict the likely winner. Cues of ownership, hunger, size, strength, and alliance strength were systematically varied across conditions. Results demonstrate that children's expectations followed the logic of the AWA model, even in complex situations featuring multiple, competing cues, such that the actual relative costs and benefits that would accrue during such a conflict were reflected in children's expectations. Control conditions show that these modifications to conflict expectations could not have resulted from more general experimental artifacts or demand characteristics. To test the selectivity of these effects to conflict, expectations of search effort were also assessed. As predicted, they yielded a different pattern of results. These studies represent one of the first experimental tests of the AWA model in humans and suggest that future research on the psychology of ownership, conflict, and value may be aided by formalized models from evolutionary biology.

Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

PubMed

Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio

2012-01-01

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species' ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model's output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change.

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

PubMed

Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

When three traits make a line: evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation through linear reaction norms in stochastic environments.

PubMed

Ergon, T; Ergon, R

2017-03-01

Genetic assimilation emerges from selection on phenotypic plasticity. Yet, commonly used quantitative genetics models of linear reaction norms considering intercept and slope as traits do not mimic the full process of genetic assimilation. We argue that intercept-slope reaction norm models are insufficient representations of genetic effects on linear reaction norms and that considering reaction norm intercept as a trait is unfortunate because the definition of this trait relates to a specific environmental value (zero) and confounds genetic effects on reaction norm elevation with genetic effects on environmental perception. Instead, we suggest a model with three traits representing genetic effects that, respectively, (i) are independent of the environment, (ii) alter the sensitivity of the phenotype to the environment and (iii) determine how the organism perceives the environment. The model predicts that, given sufficient additive genetic variation in environmental perception, the environmental value at which reaction norms tend to cross will respond rapidly to selection after an abrupt environmental change, and eventually becomes equal to the new mean environment. This readjustment of the zone of canalization becomes completed without changes in genetic correlations, genetic drift or imposing any fitness costs of maintaining plasticity. The asymptotic evolutionary outcome of this three-trait linear reaction norm generally entails a lower degree of phenotypic plasticity than the two-trait model, and maximum expected fitness does not occur at the mean trait values in the population. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

Analysis and application of opinion model with multiple topic interactions.

PubMed

Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ximeng

2017-08-01

To reveal heterogeneous behaviors of opinion evolution in different scenarios, we propose an opinion model with topic interactions. Individual opinions and topic features are represented by a multidimensional vector. We measure an agent's action towards a specific topic by the product of opinion and topic feature. When pairs of agents interact for a topic, their actions are introduced to opinion updates with bounded confidence. Simulation results show that a transition from a disordered state to a consensus state occurs at a critical point of the tolerance threshold, which depends on the opinion dimension. The critical point increases as the dimension of opinions increases. Multiple topics promote opinion interactions and lead to the formation of macroscopic opinion clusters. In addition, more topics accelerate the evolutionary process and weaken the effect of network topology. We use two sets of large-scale real data to evaluate the model, and the results prove its effectiveness in characterizing a real evolutionary process. Our model achieves high performance in individual action prediction and even outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Meanwhile, our model has much smaller computational complexity. This paper provides a demonstration for possible practical applications of theoretical opinion dynamics.

Modelling the ecological niche from functional traits

PubMed Central

Kearney, Michael; Simpson, Stephen J.; Raubenheimer, David; Helmuth, Brian

2010-01-01

The niche concept is central to ecology but is often depicted descriptively through observing associations between organisms and habitats. Here, we argue for the importance of mechanistically modelling niches based on functional traits of organisms and explore the possibilities for achieving this through the integration of three theoretical frameworks: biophysical ecology (BE), the geometric framework for nutrition (GF) and dynamic energy budget (DEB) models. These three frameworks are fundamentally based on the conservation laws of thermodynamics, describing energy and mass balance at the level of the individual and capturing the prodigious predictive power of the concepts of ‘homeostasis’ and ‘evolutionary fitness’. BE and the GF provide mechanistic multi-dimensional depictions of climatic and nutritional niches, respectively, providing a foundation for linking organismal traits (morphology, physiology, behaviour) with habitat characteristics. In turn, they provide driving inputs and cost functions for mass/energy allocation within the individual as determined by DEB models. We show how integration of the three frameworks permits calculation of activity constraints, vital rates (survival, development, growth, reproduction) and ultimately population growth rates and species distributions. When integrated with contemporary niche theory, functional trait niche models hold great promise for tackling major questions in ecology and evolutionary biology. PMID:20921046

Predicting Predator Recognition in a Changing World.

PubMed

Carthey, Alexandra J R; Blumstein, Daniel T

2018-02-01

Through natural as well as anthropogenic processes, prey can lose historically important predators and gain novel ones. Both predator gain and loss frequently have deleterious consequences. While numerous hypotheses explain the response of individuals to novel and familiar predators, we lack a unifying conceptual model that predicts the fate of prey following the introduction of a novel or a familiar (reintroduced) predator. Using the concept of eco-evolutionary experience, we create a new framework that allows us to predict whether prey will recognize and be able to discriminate predator cues from non-predator cues and, moreover, the likely persistence outcomes for 11 different predator-prey interaction scenarios. This framework generates useful and testable predictions for ecologists, conservation scientists, and decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conditional Selection of Genomic Alterations Dictates Cancer Evolution and Oncogenic Dependencies.

PubMed

Mina, Marco; Raynaud, Franck; Tavernari, Daniele; Battistello, Elena; Sungalee, Stephanie; Saghafinia, Sadegh; Laessle, Titouan; Sanchez-Vega, Francisco; Schultz, Nikolaus; Oricchio, Elisa; Ciriello, Giovanni

2017-08-14

Cancer evolves through the emergence and selection of molecular alterations. Cancer genome profiling has revealed that specific events are more or less likely to be co-selected, suggesting that the selection of one event depends on the others. However, the nature of these evolutionary dependencies and their impact remain unclear. Here, we designed SELECT, an algorithmic approach to systematically identify evolutionary dependencies from alteration patterns. By analyzing 6,456 genomes from multiple tumor types, we constructed a map of oncogenic dependencies associated with cellular pathways, transcriptional readouts, and therapeutic response. Finally, modeling of cancer evolution shows that alteration dependencies emerge only under conditional selection. These results provide a framework for the design of strategies to predict cancer progression and therapeutic response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Qualitative similarities in the visual short-term memory of pigeons and people.

PubMed

Gibson, Brett; Wasserman, Edward; Luck, Steven J

2011-10-01

Visual short-term memory plays a key role in guiding behavior, and individual differences in visual short-term memory capacity are strongly predictive of higher cognitive abilities. To provide a broader evolutionary context for understanding this memory system, we directly compared the behavior of pigeons and humans on a change detection task. Although pigeons had a lower storage capacity and a higher lapse rate than humans, both species stored multiple items in short-term memory and conformed to the same basic performance model. Thus, despite their very different evolutionary histories and neural architectures, pigeons and humans have functionally similar visual short-term memory systems, suggesting that the functional properties of visual short-term memory are subject to similar selective pressures across these distant species.

Extraordinary intelligence and the care of infants

PubMed Central

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Kidd, Celeste

2016-01-01

We present evidence that pressures for early childcare may have been one of the driving factors of human evolution. We show through an evolutionary model that runaway selection for high intelligence may occur when (i) altricial neonates require intelligent parents, (ii) intelligent parents must have large brains, and (iii) large brains necessitate having even more altricial offspring. We test a prediction of this account by showing across primate genera that the helplessness of infants is a particularly strong predictor of the adults’ intelligence. We discuss related implications, including this account’s ability to explain why human-level intelligence evolved specifically in mammals. This theory complements prior hypotheses that link human intelligence to social reasoning and reproductive pressures and explains how human intelligence may have become so distinctive compared with our closest evolutionary relatives. PMID:27217560

Antagonistic versus non-antagonistic models of balancing selection: Characterizing the relative timescales and hitchhiking effects of partial selective sweeps

PubMed Central

Connallon, Tim; Clark, Andrew G.

2012-01-01

Antagonistically selected alleles -- those with opposing fitness effects between sexes, environments, or fitness components -- represent an important component of additive genetic variance in fitness-related traits, with stably balanced polymorphisms often hypothesized to contribute to observed quantitative genetic variation. Balancing selection hypotheses imply that intermediate-frequency alleles disproportionately contribute to genetic variance of life history traits and fitness. Such alleles may also associate with population genetic footprints of recent selection, including reduced genetic diversity and inflated linkage disequilibrium at linked, neutral sites. Here, we compare the evolutionary dynamics of different balancing selection models, and characterize the evolutionary timescale and hitchhiking effects of partial selective sweeps generated under antagonistic versus non-antagonistic (e.g., overdominant and frequency-dependent selection) processes. We show that that the evolutionary timescales of partial sweeps tend to be much longer, and hitchhiking effects are drastically weaker, under scenarios of antagonistic selection. These results predict an interesting mismatch between molecular population genetic and quantitative genetic patterns of variation. Balanced, antagonistically selected alleles are expected to contribute more to additive genetic variance for fitness than alleles maintained by classic, non-antagonistic mechanisms. Nevertheless, classical mechanisms of balancing selection are much more likely to generate strong population genetic signatures of recent balancing selection. PMID:23461340

Enhancing hydrologic data assimilation by evolutionary Particle Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaszadeh, Peyman; Moradkhani, Hamid; Yan, Hongxiang

2018-01-01

Particle Filters (PFs) have received increasing attention by researchers from different disciplines including the hydro-geosciences, as an effective tool to improve model predictions in nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamical systems. The implication of dual state and parameter estimation using the PFs in hydrology has evolved since 2005 from the PF-SIR (sampling importance resampling) to PF-MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), and now to the most effective and robust framework through evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MCMC, the so-called EPFM. In this framework, the prior distribution undergoes an evolutionary process based on the designed mutation and crossover operators of GA. The merit of this approach is that the particles move to an appropriate position by using the GA optimization and then the number of effective particles is increased by means of MCMC, whereby the particle degeneracy is avoided and the particle diversity is improved. In this study, the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed EPFM is investigated by applying the technique on a conceptual and highly nonlinear hydrologic model over four river basins located in different climate and geographical regions of the United States. Both synthetic and real case studies demonstrate that the EPFM improves both the state and parameter estimation more effectively and reliably as compared with the PF-MCMC.

Evolutionary Strategies for Protein Folding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murthy Gopal, Srinivasa; Wenzel, Wolfgang

2006-03-01

The free energy approach for predicting the protein tertiary structure describes the native state of a protein as the global minimum of an appropriate free-energy forcefield. The low-energy region of the free-energy landscape of a protein is extremely rugged. Efficient optimization methods must therefore speed up the search for the global optimum by avoiding high energy transition states, adapt large scale moves or accept unphysical intermediates. Here we investigate an evolutionary strategies(ES) for optimizing a protein conformation in our all-atom free-energy force field([1],[2]). A set of random conformations is evolved using an ES to get a diverse population containing low energy structure. The ES is shown to balance energy improvement and yet maintain diversity in structures. The ES is implemented as a master-client model for distributed computing. Starting from random structures and by using this optimization technique, we were able to fold a 20 amino-acid helical protein and 16 amino-acid beta hairpin[3]. We compare ES to basin hopping method. [1]T. Herges and W. Wenzel,Biophys.J. 87,3100(2004) [2] A. Verma and W. Wenzel Stabilization and folding of beta-sheet and alpha-helical proteins in an all-atom free energy model(submitted)(2005) [3] S. M. Gopal and W. Wenzel Evolutionary Strategies for Protein Folding (in preparation)

Insights into the evolution of enzyme substrate promiscuity after the discovery of (βα)₈ isomerase evolutionary intermediates from a diverse metagenome.

PubMed

Noda-García, Lianet; Juárez-Vázquez, Ana L; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Verduzco-Castro, Ernesto A; Montero-Morán, Gabriela; Gaytán, Paul; Carrillo-Tripp, Mauricio; Barona-Gómez, Francisco

2015-06-10

Current sequence-based approaches to identify enzyme functional shifts, such as enzyme promiscuity, have proven to be highly dependent on a priori functional knowledge, hampering our ability to reconstruct evolutionary history behind these mechanisms. Hidden Markov Model (HMM) profiles, broadly used to classify enzyme families, can be useful to distinguish between closely related enzyme families with different specificities. The (βα)8-isomerase HisA/PriA enzyme family, involved in L-histidine (HisA, mono-substrate) biosynthesis in most bacteria and plants, but also in L-tryptophan (HisA/TrpF or PriA, dual-substrate) biosynthesis in most Actinobacteria, has been used as model system to explore evolutionary hypotheses and therefore has a considerable amount of evolutionary, functional and structural knowledge available. We searched for functional evolutionary intermediates between the HisA and PriA enzyme families in order to understand the functional divergence between these families. We constructed a HMM profile that correctly classifies sequences of unknown function into the HisA and PriA enzyme sub-families. Using this HMM profile, we mined a large metagenome to identify plausible evolutionary intermediate sequences between HisA and PriA. These sequences were used to perform phylogenetic reconstructions and to identify functionally conserved amino acids. Biochemical characterization of one selected enzyme (CAM1) with a mutation within the functionally essential N-terminus phosphate-binding site, namely, an alanine instead of a glycine in HisA or a serine in PriA, showed that this evolutionary intermediate has dual-substrate specificity. Moreover, site-directed mutagenesis of this alanine residue, either backwards into a glycine or forward into a serine, revealed the robustness of this enzyme. None of these mutations, presumably upon functionally essential amino acids, significantly abolished its enzyme activities. A truncated version of this enzyme (CAM2) predicted to adopt a (βα)6-fold, and thus entirely lacking a C-terminus phosphate-binding site, was identified and shown to have HisA activity. As expected, reconstruction of the evolution of PriA from HisA with HMM profiles suggest that functional shifts involve mutations in evolutionarily intermediate enzymes of otherwise functionally essential residues or motifs. These results are in agreement with a link between promiscuous enzymes and intragenic epistasis. HMM provides a convenient approach for gaining insights into these evolutionary processes.

Strengths and weaknesses of McNamara's evolutionary psychological model of dreaming.

PubMed

Olliges, Sandra

2010-10-07

This article includes a brief overview of McNamara's (2004) evolutionary model of dreaming. The strengths and weaknesses of this model are then evaluated in terms of its consonance with measurable neurological and biological properties of dreaming, its fit within the tenets of evolutionary theories of dreams, and its alignment with evolutionary concepts of cooperation and spirituality. McNamara's model focuses primarily on dreaming that occurs during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep; therefore this article also focuses on REM dreaming.

Integrating genomics into evolutionary medicine.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Juan Antonio; Marigorta, Urko M; Navarro, Arcadi

2014-12-01

The application of the principles of evolutionary biology into medicine was suggested long ago and is already providing insight into the ultimate causes of disease. However, a full systematic integration of medical genomics and evolutionary medicine is still missing. Here, we briefly review some cases where the combination of the two fields has proven profitable and highlight two of the main issues hindering the development of evolutionary genomic medicine as a mature field, namely the dissociation between fitness and health and the still considerable difficulties in predicting phenotypes from genotypes. We use publicly available data to illustrate both problems and conclude that new approaches are needed for evolutionary genomic medicine to overcome these obstacles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests

PubMed Central

Bedward, Michael; Penman, Trent D.; Doherty, Michael D.; Weber, Rodney O.; Gill, A. Malcolm; Cary, Geoffrey J.

2016-01-01

The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this. PMID:27529789

Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests.

PubMed

Zylstra, Philip; Bradstock, Ross A; Bedward, Michael; Penman, Trent D; Doherty, Michael D; Weber, Rodney O; Gill, A Malcolm; Cary, Geoffrey J

2016-01-01

The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this.

How evolutionary crystal structure prediction works--and why.

PubMed

Oganov, Artem R; Lyakhov, Andriy O; Valle, Mario

2011-03-15

Once the crystal structure of a chemical substance is known, many properties can be predicted reliably and routinely. Therefore if researchers could predict the crystal structure of a material before it is synthesized, they could significantly accelerate the discovery of new materials. In addition, the ability to predict crystal structures at arbitrary conditions of pressure and temperature is invaluable for the study of matter at extreme conditions, where experiments are difficult. Crystal structure prediction (CSP), the problem of finding the most stable arrangement of atoms given only the chemical composition, has long remained a major unsolved scientific problem. Two problems are entangled here: search, the efficient exploration of the multidimensional energy landscape, and ranking, the correct calculation of relative energies. For organic crystals, which contain a few molecules in the unit cell, search can be quite simple as long as a researcher does not need to include many possible isomers or conformations of the molecules; therefore ranking becomes the main challenge. For inorganic crystals, quantum mechanical methods often provide correct relative energies, making search the most critical problem. Recent developments provide useful practical methods for solving the search problem to a considerable extent. One can use simulated annealing, metadynamics, random sampling, basin hopping, minima hopping, and data mining. Genetic algorithms have been applied to crystals since 1995, but with limited success, which necessitated the development of a very different evolutionary algorithm. This Account reviews CSP using one of the major techniques, the hybrid evolutionary algorithm USPEX (Universal Structure Predictor: Evolutionary Xtallography). Using recent developments in the theory of energy landscapes, we unravel the reasons evolutionary techniques work for CSP and point out their limitations. We demonstrate that the energy landscapes of chemical systems have an overall shape and explore their intrinsic dimensionalities. Because of the inverse relationships between order and energy and between the dimensionality and diversity of an ensemble of crystal structures, the chances that a random search will find the ground state decrease exponentially with increasing system size. A well-designed evolutionary algorithm allows for much greater computational efficiency. We illustrate the power of evolutionary CSP through applications that examine matter at high pressure, where new, unexpected phenomena take place. Evolutionary CSP has allowed researchers to make unexpected discoveries such as a transparent phase of sodium, a partially ionic form of boron, complex superconducting forms of calcium, a novel superhard allotrope of carbon, polymeric modifications of nitrogen, and a new class of compounds, perhydrides. These methods have also led to the discovery of novel hydride superconductors including the "impossible" LiH(n) (n=2, 6, 8) compounds, and CaLi(2). We discuss extensions of the method to molecular crystals, systems of variable composition, and the targeted optimization of specific physical properties. © 2011 American Chemical Society

EMBEDDED LENSING TIME DELAYS, THE FERMAT POTENTIAL, AND THE INTEGRATED SACHS–WOLFE EFFECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Bin; Kantowski, Ronald; Dai, Xinyu, E-mail: bchen3@fsu.edu

2015-05-01

We derive the Fermat potential for a spherically symmetric lens embedded in a Friedman–Lemaître–Robertson–Walker cosmology and use it to investigate the late-time integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect, i.e., secondary temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) caused by individual large-scale clusters and voids. We present a simple analytical expression for the temperature fluctuation in the CMB across such a lens as a derivative of the lens’ Fermat potential. This formalism is applicable to both linear and nonlinear density evolution scenarios, to arbitrarily large density contrasts, and to all open and closed background cosmologies. It is much simpler to use andmore » makes the same predictions as conventional approaches. In this approach the total temperature fluctuation can be split into a time-delay part and an evolutionary part. Both parts must be included for cosmic structures that evolve and both can be equally important. We present very simple ISW models for cosmic voids and galaxy clusters to illustrate the ease of use of our formalism. We use the Fermat potentials of simple cosmic void models to compare predicted ISW effects with those recently extracted from WMAP and Planck data by stacking large cosmic voids using the aperture photometry method. If voids in the local universe with large density contrasts are no longer evolving we find that the time delay contribution alone predicts values consistent with the measurements. However, we find that for voids still evolving linearly, the evolutionary contribution cancels a significant part of the time delay contribution and results in predicted signals that are much smaller than recently observed.« less

Wild cricket social networks show stability across generations.

PubMed

Fisher, David N; Rodríguez-Muñoz, Rolando; Tregenza, Tom

2016-07-27

A central part of an animal's environment is its interactions with conspecifics. There has been growing interest in the potential to capture these interactions in the form of a social network. Such networks can then be used to examine how relationships among individuals affect ecological and evolutionary processes. However, in the context of selection and evolution, the utility of this approach relies on social network structures persisting across generations. This is an assumption that has been difficult to test because networks spanning multiple generations have not been available. We constructed social networks for six annual generations over a period of eight years for a wild population of the cricket Gryllus campestris. Through the use of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we found that the networks in any given year were able to predict the structure of networks in other years for some network characteristics. The capacity of a network model of any given year to predict the networks of other years did not depend on how far apart those other years were in time. Instead, the capacity of a network model to predict the structure of a network in another year depended on the similarity in population size between those years. Our results indicate that cricket social network structure resists the turnover of individuals and is stable across generations. This would allow evolutionary processes that rely on network structure to take place. The influence of network size may indicate that scaling up findings on social behaviour from small populations to larger ones will be difficult. Our study also illustrates the utility of ERGMs for comparing networks, a task for which an effective approach has been elusive.

PANTHER-PSEP: predicting disease-causing genetic variants using position-specific evolutionary preservation.

PubMed

Tang, Haiming; Thomas, Paul D

2016-07-15

PANTHER-PSEP is a new software tool for predicting non-synonymous genetic variants that may play a causal role in human disease. Several previous variant pathogenicity prediction methods have been proposed that quantify evolutionary conservation among homologous proteins from different organisms. PANTHER-PSEP employs a related but distinct metric based on 'evolutionary preservation': homologous proteins are used to reconstruct the likely sequences of ancestral proteins at nodes in a phylogenetic tree, and the history of each amino acid can be traced back in time from its current state to estimate how long that state has been preserved in its ancestors. Here, we describe the PSEP tool, and assess its performance on standard benchmarks for distinguishing disease-associated from neutral variation in humans. On these benchmarks, PSEP outperforms not only previous tools that utilize evolutionary conservation, but also several highly used tools that include multiple other sources of information as well. For predicting pathogenic human variants, the trace back of course starts with a human 'reference' protein sequence, but the PSEP tool can also be applied to predicting deleterious or pathogenic variants in reference proteins from any of the ∼100 other species in the PANTHER database. PANTHER-PSEP is freely available on the web at http://pantherdb.org/tools/csnpScoreForm.jsp Users can also download the command-line based tool at ftp://ftp.pantherdb.org/cSNP_analysis/PSEP/ CONTACT: pdthomas@usc.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Improving protein-protein interaction prediction using evolutionary information from low-quality MSAs.

PubMed

Várnai, Csilla; Burkoff, Nikolas S; Wild, David L

2017-01-01

Evolutionary information stored in multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) has been used to identify the interaction interface of protein complexes, by measuring either co-conservation or co-mutation of amino acid residues across the interface. Recently, maximum entropy related correlated mutation measures (CMMs) such as direct information, decoupling direct from indirect interactions, have been developed to identify residue pairs interacting across the protein complex interface. These studies have focussed on carefully selected protein complexes with large, good-quality MSAs. In this work, we study protein complexes with a more typical MSA consisting of fewer than 400 sequences, using a set of 79 intramolecular protein complexes. Using a maximum entropy based CMM at the residue level, we develop an interface level CMM score to be used in re-ranking docking decoys. We demonstrate that our interface level CMM score compares favourably to the complementarity trace score, an evolutionary information-based score measuring co-conservation, when combined with the number of interface residues, a knowledge-based potential and the variability score of individual amino acid sites. We also demonstrate, that, since co-mutation and co-complementarity in the MSA contain orthogonal information, the best prediction performance using evolutionary information can be achieved by combining the co-mutation information of the CMM with co-conservation information of a complementarity trace score, predicting a near-native structure as the top prediction for 41% of the dataset. The method presented is not restricted to small MSAs, and will likely improve interface prediction also for complexes with large and good-quality MSAs.

Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

EPA Science Inventory

We synthesize how advances in computational methods and population genomics can be combined within an Ecological-Evolutionary (Eco-Evo) PVA model. Eco-Evo PVA models are powerful new tools for understanding the influence of evolutionary processes on plant and animal population pe...

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

PubMed

Laugen, Ane T; Engelhard, Georg H; Whitlock, Rebecca; Arlinghaus, Robert; Dankel, Dorothy J; Dunlop, Erin S; Eikeset, Anne M; Enberg, Katja; Jørgensen, Christian; Matsumura, Shuichi; Nusslé, Sébastien; Urbach, Davnah; Baulier, Loїc; Boukal, David S; Ernande, Bruno; Johnston, Fiona D; Mollet, Fabian; Pardoe, Heidi; Therkildsen, Nina O; Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Vainikka, Anssi; Heino, Mikko; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Dieckmann, Ulf

2014-03-01

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

PubMed Central

Laugen, Ane T; Engelhard, Georg H; Whitlock, Rebecca; Arlinghaus, Robert; Dankel, Dorothy J; Dunlop, Erin S; Eikeset, Anne M; Enberg, Katja; Jørgensen, Christian; Matsumura, Shuichi; Nusslé, Sébastien; Urbach, Davnah; Baulier, Loїc; Boukal, David S; Ernande, Bruno; Johnston, Fiona D; Mollet, Fabian; Pardoe, Heidi; Therkildsen, Nina O; Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Vainikka, Anssi; Heino, Mikko; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Dieckmann, Ulf

2014-01-01

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries. PMID:26430388

Benefits of fidelity: does host specialization impact nematode parasite life history and fecundity?

PubMed

Koprivnikar, J; Randhawa, H S

2013-04-01

The range of hosts used by a parasite is influenced by macro-evolutionary processes (host switching, host-parasite co-evolution), as well as 'encounter filters' and 'compatibility filters' at the micro-evolutionary level driven by host/parasite ecology and physiology. Host specialization is hypothesized to result in trade-offs with aspects of parasite life history (e.g. reproductive output), but these have not been well studied. We used previously published data to create models examining general relationships among host specificity and important aspects of life history and reproduction for nematodes parasitizing animals. Our results indicate no general trade-off between host specificity and the average pre-patent period (time to first reproduction), female size, egg size, or fecundity of these nematodes. However, female size was positively related to egg size, fecundity, and pre-patent period. Host compatibility may thus not be the primary determinant of specificity in these parasitic nematodes if there are few apparent trade-offs with reproduction, but rather, the encounter opportunities for new host species at the micro-evolutionary level, and other processes at the macro-evolutionary level (i.e. phylogeny). Because host specificity is recognized as a key factor determining the spread of parasitic diseases understanding factors limiting host use are essential to predict future changes in parasite range and occurrence.

Costs and constraints conspire to produce honest signaling: insights from an ant queen pheromone.

PubMed

Holman, Luke

2012-07-01

Signal costs and evolutionary constraints have both been proposed as ultimate explanations for the ubiquity of honest signaling, but the interface between these two factors is unclear. Here, I propose a pluralistic interpretation, and use game theory to demonstrate that evolutionary constraints determine whether signals evolve to be costly or cheap. Specifically, when the costs or benefits of signaling are strongly influenced by the sender's quality, low-cost signals evolve. The model reaffirms that cheap and costly signals can both be honest, and predicts that expensive signals should have more positive allometric slopes than cheap ones. The new framework is applied to an experimental study of an ant queen pheromone that honestly signals fecundity. Juvenile hormone was found to have opposing, dose-dependent effects on pheromone production and fecundity and was fatal at high doses, indicating that endocrine-mediated trade-offs preclude dishonesty. Several lines of evidence suggest that the realized cost of pheromone production may be nontrivial, and the antagonistic effects of juvenile hormone indicate the presence of significant evolutionary constraints. I conclude that the honesty of queen pheromones and other signals is likely enforced by both the cost of dishonesty and a suite of evolutionary constraints. © 2012 The Author(s).

The Evolutionary Basis of Naturally Diverse Rice Leaves Anatomy

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Jolly; Dionora, Jacqueline; Elmido-Mabilangan, Abigail; Wanchana, Samart; Thakur, Vivek; Bandyopadhyay, Anindya; Brar, Darshan S.; Quick, William Paul

2016-01-01

Rice contains genetically and ecologically diverse wild and cultivated species that show a wide variation in plant and leaf architecture. A systematic characterization of leaf anatomy is essential in understanding the dynamics behind such diversity. Therefore, leaf anatomies of 24 Oryza species spanning 11 genetically diverse rice genomes were studied in both lateral and longitudinal directions and possible evolutionary trends were examined. A significant inter-species variation in mesophyll cells, bundle sheath cells, and vein structure was observed, suggesting precise genetic control over these major rice leaf anatomical traits. Cellular dimensions, measured along three growth axes, were further combined proportionately to construct three-dimensional (3D) leaf anatomy models to compare the relative size and orientation of the major cell types present in a fully expanded leaf. A reconstruction of the ancestral leaf state revealed that the following are the major characteristics of recently evolved rice species: fewer veins, larger and laterally elongated mesophyll cells, with an increase in total mesophyll area and in bundle sheath cell number. A huge diversity in leaf anatomy within wild and domesticated rice species has been portrayed in this study, on an evolutionary context, predicting a two-pronged evolutionary pathway leading to the ‘sativa leaf type’ that we see today in domesticated species. PMID:27792743

Evolutionary analysis of groundwater flow: Application of multivariate statistical analysis to hydrochemical data in the Densu Basin, Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yidana, Sandow Mark; Bawoyobie, Patrick; Sakyi, Patrick; Fynn, Obed Fiifi

2018-02-01

An evolutionary trend has been postulated through the analysis of hydrochemical data of a crystalline rock aquifer system in the Densu Basin, Southern Ghana. Hydrochemcial data from 63 groundwater samples, taken from two main groundwater outlets (Boreholes and hand dug wells) were used to postulate an evolutionary theory for the basin. Sequential factor and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to disintegrate the data into three factors and five clusters (spatial associations). These were used to characterize the controls on groundwater hydrochemistry and its evolution in the terrain. The dissolution of soluble salts and cation exchange processes are the dominant processes controlling groundwater hydrochemistry in the terrain. The trend of evolution of this set of processes follows the pattern of groundwater flow predicted by a calibrated transient groundwater model in the area. The data suggest that anthropogenic activities represent the second most important process in the hydrochemistry. Silicate mineral weathering is the third most important set of processes. Groundwater associations resulting from Q-mode hierarchical cluster analysis indicate an evolutionary pattern consistent with the general groundwater flow pattern in the basin. These key findings are at variance with results of previous investigations and indicate that when carefully done, groundwater hydrochemical data can be very useful for conceptualizing groundwater flow in basins.

The Evolutionary Basis of Naturally Diverse Rice Leaves Anatomy.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Jolly; Dionora, Jacqueline; Elmido-Mabilangan, Abigail; Wanchana, Samart; Thakur, Vivek; Bandyopadhyay, Anindya; Brar, Darshan S; Quick, William Paul

2016-01-01

Rice contains genetically and ecologically diverse wild and cultivated species that show a wide variation in plant and leaf architecture. A systematic characterization of leaf anatomy is essential in understanding the dynamics behind such diversity. Therefore, leaf anatomies of 24 Oryza species spanning 11 genetically diverse rice genomes were studied in both lateral and longitudinal directions and possible evolutionary trends were examined. A significant inter-species variation in mesophyll cells, bundle sheath cells, and vein structure was observed, suggesting precise genetic control over these major rice leaf anatomical traits. Cellular dimensions, measured along three growth axes, were further combined proportionately to construct three-dimensional (3D) leaf anatomy models to compare the relative size and orientation of the major cell types present in a fully expanded leaf. A reconstruction of the ancestral leaf state revealed that the following are the major characteristics of recently evolved rice species: fewer veins, larger and laterally elongated mesophyll cells, with an increase in total mesophyll area and in bundle sheath cell number. A huge diversity in leaf anatomy within wild and domesticated rice species has been portrayed in this study, on an evolutionary context, predicting a two-pronged evolutionary pathway leading to the 'sativa leaf type' that we see today in domesticated species.

Cliff-edge model of obstetric selection in humans.

PubMed

Mitteroecker, Philipp; Huttegger, Simon M; Fischer, Barbara; Pavlicev, Mihaela

2016-12-20

The strikingly high incidence of obstructed labor due to the disproportion of fetal size and the mother's pelvic dimensions has puzzled evolutionary scientists for decades. Here we propose that these high rates are a direct consequence of the distinct characteristics of human obstetric selection. Neonatal size relative to the birth-relevant maternal dimensions is highly variable and positively associated with reproductive success until it reaches a critical value, beyond which natural delivery becomes impossible. As a consequence, the symmetric phenotype distribution cannot match the highly asymmetric, cliff-edged fitness distribution well: The optimal phenotype distribution that maximizes population mean fitness entails a fraction of individuals falling beyond the "fitness edge" (i.e., those with fetopelvic disproportion). Using a simple mathematical model, we show that weak directional selection for a large neonate, a narrow pelvic canal, or both is sufficient to account for the considerable incidence of fetopelvic disproportion. Based on this model, we predict that the regular use of Caesarean sections throughout the last decades has led to an evolutionary increase of fetopelvic disproportion rates by 10 to 20%.

Early warning of limit-exceeding concentrations of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in drinking water reservoirs by inferential modelling.

PubMed

Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Bartkow, Michael; Swanepoel, Annelie; Cao, Hongqing

2017-11-01

An early warning scheme is proposed that runs ensembles of inferential models for predicting the cyanobacterial population dynamics and cyanotoxin concentrations in drinking water reservoirs on a diel basis driven by in situ sonde water quality data. When the 10- to 30-day-ahead predicted concentrations of cyanobacteria cells or cyanotoxins exceed pre-defined limit values, an early warning automatically activates an action plan considering in-lake control, e.g. intermittent mixing and ad hoc water treatment in water works, respectively. Case studies of the sub-tropical Lake Wivenhoe (Australia) and the Mediterranean Vaal Reservoir (South Africa) demonstrate that ensembles of inferential models developed by the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA are capable of up to 30days forecasts of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins using data collected in situ. The resulting models for Dolicospermum circinale displayed validity for up to 10days ahead, whilst concentrations of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and microcystins were successfully predicted up to 30days ahead. Implementing the proposed scheme for drinking water reservoirs enhances current water quality monitoring practices by solely utilising in situ monitoring data, in addition to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxin measurements. Access to routinely measured cyanotoxin data allows for development of models that predict explicitly cyanotoxin concentrations that avoid to inadvertently model and predict non-toxic cyanobacterial strains. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

2015-04-01

Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

Genetic correlations and sex-specific adaptation in changing environments.

PubMed

Connallon, Tim; Hall, Matthew D

2016-10-01

Females and males have conflicting evolutionary interests. Selection favors the evolution of different phenotypes within each sex, yet divergence between the sexes is constrained by the shared genetic basis of female and male traits. Current theory predicts that such "sexual antagonism" should be common: manifesting rapidly during the process of adaptation, and slow in its resolution. However, these predictions apply in temporally stable environments. Environmental change has been shown empirically to realign the direction of selection acting on shared traits and thereby alleviate signals of sexually antagonistic selection. Yet there remains no theory for how common sexual antagonism should be in changing environments. Here, we analyze models of sex-specific evolutionary divergence under directional and cyclic environmental change, and consider the impact of genetic correlations on long-run patterns of sex-specific adaptation. We find that environmental change often aligns directional selection between the sexes, even when they have divergent phenotypic optima. Nevertheless, some forms of environmental change generate persistent sexually antagonistic selection that is difficult to resolve. Our results reinforce recent empirical observations that changing environmental conditions alleviate conflict between males and females. They also generate new predictions regarding the scope for sexually antagonistic selection and its resolution in changing environments. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The rock-paper-scissors game and the evolution of alternative male strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinervo, B.; Lively, C. M.

1996-03-01

MANY species exhibit colour polymorphisms associated with alternative male reproductive strategies, including territorial males and 'sneaker males' that behave and look like females1-3. The prevalence of multiple morphs is a challenge to evolutionary theory because a single strategy should prevail unless morphs have exactly equal fitness4,5 or a fitness advantage when rare6,7. We report here the application of an evolutionary stable strategy model to a three-morph mating system in the side-blotched lizard. Using parameter estimates from field data, the model predicted oscillations in morph frequency, and the frequencies of the three male morphs were found to oscillate over a six-year period in the field. The fitnesses of each morph relative to other morphs were non-transitive in that each morph could invade another morph when rare, but was itself invadable by another morph when common. Concordance between frequency-dependent selection and the among-year changes in morph fitnesses suggest that male interactions drive a dynamic 'rock-paper-scissors' game7.

Morphomechanics and Developmental Constraints in the Evolution of Ammonites Shell Form.

PubMed

Erlich, Alexander; Moulton, Derek E; Goriely, Alain; Chirat, Regis

2016-11-01

The idea that physical processes involved in biological development underlie morphogenetic rules and channel morphological evolution has been central to the rise of evolutionary developmental biology. Here, we explore this idea in the context of seashell morphogenesis. We show that a morphomechanical model predicts the effects of variations in shell shape on the ornamental pattern in ammonites, a now extinct group of cephalopods with external chambered shell. Our model shows that several seemingly unrelated characteristics of synchronous, ontogenetic, intraspecific, and evolutionary variations in ornamental patterns among various ammonite species may all be understood from the fact that the mechanical forces underlying the oscillatory behavior of the shell secreting system scale with the cross-sectional curvature of the shell aperture. This simple morphogenetic rule, emerging from biophysical interactions during shell formation, introduced a non-random component in the production of phenotypic variation and channeled the morphological evolution of ammonites over millions of years. As such, it provides a paradigm for the concept of "developmental constraints." © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R

2012-09-01

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

The role of IDH1 mutated tumour cells in secondary glioblastomas: an evolutionary game theoretical view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basanta, David; Scott, Jacob G.; Rockne, Russ; Swanson, Kristin R.; Anderson, Alexander R. A.

2011-02-01

Recent advances in clinical medicine have elucidated two significantly different subtypes of glioblastoma which carry very different prognoses, both defined by mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH-1). The mechanistic consequences of this mutation have not yet been fully clarified, with conflicting opinions existing in the literature; however, IDH-1 mutation may be used as a surrogate marker to distinguish between primary and secondary glioblastoma multiforme (sGBM) from malignant progression of a lower grade glioma. We develop a mathematical model of IDH-1 mutated secondary glioblastoma using evolutionary game theory to investigate the interactions between four different phenotypic populations within the tumor: autonomous growth, invasive, glycolytic, and the hybrid invasive/glycolytic cells. Our model recapitulates glioblastoma behavior well and is able to reproduce two recent experimental findings, as well as make novel predictions concerning the rate of invasive growth as a function of vascularity, and fluctuations in the proportions of phenotypic populations that a glioblastoma will experience under different microenvironmental constraints.

The faster-X effect: integrating theory and data.

PubMed

Meisel, Richard P; Connallon, Tim

2013-09-01

Population genetics theory predicts that X (or Z) chromosomes could play disproportionate roles in speciation and evolutionary divergence, and recent genome-wide analyses have identified situations in which X or Z-linked divergence exceeds that on the autosomes (the so-called 'faster-X effect'). Here, we summarize the current state of both the theory and data surrounding the study of faster-X evolution. Our survey indicates that the faster-X effect is pervasive across a taxonomically diverse array of evolutionary lineages. These patterns could be informative of the dominance or recessivity of beneficial mutations and the nature of genetic variation acted upon by natural selection. We also identify several aspects of disagreement between these empirical results and the population genetic models used to interpret them. However, there are clearly delineated aspects of the problem for which additional modeling and collection of genomic data will address these discrepancies and provide novel insights into the population genetics of adaptation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical studies in interstellar cloud chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Y. T.; Prasad, S. S.

1993-01-01

This final report represents the completion of the three tasks under the purchase order no. SCPDE5620,1,2F. Chemical composition of gravitationally contracting, but otherwise quiescent, interstellar clouds and of interstellar clouds traversed by high velocity shocks, were modeled in a comprehensive manner that represents a significant progress in modeling these objects. The evolutionary chemical modeling, done under this NASA contract, represents a notable advance over the 'classical' fixed condition equilibrium models because the evolutionary models consider not only the chemical processes but also the dynamical processes by which the dark interstellar clouds may have assumed their present state. The shock calculations, being reported here, are important because they extend the limited chemical composition derivable from dynamical calculations for the total density and temperature structures behind the shock front. In order to be tractable, the dynamical calculations must severely simplify the chemistry. The present shock calculations take the shock profiles from the dynamical calculations and derive chemical composition in a comprehensive manner. The results of the present modeling study are still to be analyzed with reference to astronomical observational data and other contemporary model predictions. As far as humanly possible, this analysis will be continued with CRE's (Creative Research Enterprises's) IR&D resources, until a sponsor is found.

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies.

PubMed

Ng'oma, Enoch; Perinchery, Anna M; King, Elizabeth G

2017-06-28

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the 'omic' opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the ‘omic’ opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. PMID:28637856

Life is determined by its environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torday, John S.; Miller, William B.

2016-10-01

A well-developed theory of evolutionary biology requires understanding of the origins of life on Earth. However, the initial conditions (ontology) and causal (epistemology) bases on which physiology proceeded have more recently been called into question, given the teleologic nature of Darwinian evolutionary thinking. When evolutionary development is focused on cellular communication, a distinctly different perspective unfolds. The cellular communicative-molecular approach affords a logical progression for the evolutionary narrative based on the basic physiologic properties of the cell. Critical to this appraisal is recognition of the cell as a fundamental reiterative unit of reciprocating communication that receives information from and reacts to epiphenomena to solve problems. Following the course of vertebrate physiology from its unicellular origins instead of its overt phenotypic appearances and functional associations provides a robust, predictive picture for the means by which complex physiology evolved from unicellular organisms. With this foreknowledge of physiologic principles, we can determine the fundamentals of Physiology based on cellular first principles using a logical, predictable method. Thus, evolutionary creativity on our planet can be viewed as a paradoxical product of boundary conditions that permit homeostatic moments of varying length and amplitude that can productively absorb a variety of epigenetic impacts to meet environmental challenges.

Life is determined by its environment

PubMed Central

Torday, John S.; Miller, William B.

2016-01-01

A well-developed theory of evolutionary biology requires understanding of the origins of life on Earth. However, the initial conditions (ontology) and causal (epistemology) bases on which physiology proceeded have more recently been called into question, given the teleologic nature of Darwinian evolutionary thinking. When evolutionary development is focused on cellular communication, a distinctly different perspective unfolds. The cellular communicative-molecular approach affords a logical progression for the evolutionary narrative based on the basic physiologic properties of the cell. Critical to this appraisal is recognition of the cell as a fundamental reiterative unit of reciprocating communication that receives information from and reacts to epiphenomena to solve problems. Following the course of vertebrate physiology from its unicellular origins instead of its overt phenotypic appearances and functional associations provides a robust, predictive picture for the means by which complex physiology evolved from unicellular organisms. With this foreknowledge of physiologic principles, we can determine the fundamentals of Physiology based on cellular first principles using a logical, predictable method. Thus, evolutionary creativity on our planet can be viewed as a paradoxical product of boundary conditions that permit homeostatic moments of varying length and amplitude that can productively absorb a variety of epigenetic impacts to meet environmental challenges. PMID:27708547

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea.

PubMed

Munday, Philip L; Warner, Robert R; Monro, Keyne; Pandolfi, John M; Marshall, Dustin J

2013-12-01

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Paleoclimatic modeling and phylogeography of least killifish, Heterandria formosa: insights into Pleistocene expansion-contraction dynamics and evolutionary history of North American Coastal Plain freshwater biota.

PubMed

Bagley, Justin C; Sandel, Michael; Travis, Joseph; Lozano-Vilano, María de Lourdes; Johnson, Jerald B

2013-10-09

Climatic and sea-level fluctuations throughout the last Pleistocene glacial cycle (~130-0 ka) profoundly influenced present-day distributions and genetic diversity of Northern Hemisphere biotas by forcing range contractions in many species during the glacial advance and allowing expansion following glacial retreat ('expansion-contraction' model). Evidence for such range dynamics and refugia in the unglaciated Gulf-Atlantic Coastal Plain stems largely from terrestrial species, and aquatic species Pleistocene responses remain relatively uninvestigated. Heterandria formosa, a wide-ranging regional endemic, presents an ideal system to test the expansion-contraction model within this biota. By integrating ecological niche modeling and phylogeography, we infer the Pleistocene history of this livebearing fish (Poeciliidae) and test for several predicted distributional and genetic effects of the last glaciation. Paleoclimatic models predicted range contraction to a single southwest Florida peninsula refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by northward expansion. We inferred spatial-population subdivision into four groups that reflect genetic barriers outside this refuge. Several other features of the genetic data were consistent with predictions derived from an expansion-contraction model: limited intraspecific divergence (e.g. mean mtDNA p-distance = 0.66%); a pattern of mtDNA diversity (mean Hd = 0.934; mean π = 0.007) consistent with rapid, recent population expansion; a lack of mtDNA isolation-by-distance; and clinal variation in allozyme diversity with higher diversity at lower latitudes near the predicted refugium. Statistical tests of mismatch distributions and coalescent simulations of the gene tree lent greater support to a scenario of post-glacial expansion and diversification from a single refugium than to any other model examined (e.g. multiple-refugia scenarios). Congruent results from diverse data indicate H. formosa fits the classic Pleistocene expansion-contraction model, even as the genetic data suggest additional ecological influences on population structure. While evidence for Plio-Pleistocene Gulf Coast vicariance is well described for many freshwater species presently codistributed with H. formosa, this species demography and diversification departs notably from this pattern. Species-specific expansion-contraction dynamics may therefore have figured more prominently in shaping Coastal Plain evolutionary history than previously thought. Our findings bolster growing appreciation for the complexity of phylogeographical structuring within North America's southern refugia, including responses of Coastal Plain freshwater biota to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations.

HBC-Evo: predicting human breast cancer by exploiting amino acid sequence-based feature spaces and evolutionary ensemble system.

PubMed

Majid, Abdul; Ali, Safdar

2015-01-01

We developed genetic programming (GP)-based evolutionary ensemble system for the early diagnosis, prognosis and prediction of human breast cancer. This system has effectively exploited the diversity in feature and decision spaces. First, individual learners are trained in different feature spaces using physicochemical properties of protein amino acids. Their predictions are then stacked to develop the best solution during GP evolution process. Finally, results for HBC-Evo system are obtained with optimal threshold, which is computed using particle swarm optimization. Our novel approach has demonstrated promising results compared to state of the art approaches.

Psychotraumatology: What researchers and clinicians can learn from an evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Troisi, Alfonso

2018-05-01

This review outlines the contribution of evolutionary science to experimental and clinical psychotraumatology. From an evolutionary perspective, traumatic and psychosocial stressors are conceived of as events or circumstances that thwart the achievement of biological goals. The more important is the adaptive value of the goal, the more painful is the emotional impact of the life event that endangers goal achievement. Life history theory and sexual selection theory help to explain why goal priorities differ between the sexes and across age groups. Cultural values and social learning interact with evolved inclinations in determining the hierarchy of goals for a specific person in a specific phase of his or her life. To illustrate the applicability of the evolutionary model, epidemiological and clinical data concerning individual differences in stress sensitivity and stress generation are reviewed and discussed. The final part of the review summarizes new hypotheses that explain how early and current psychosocial stressors can activate a series of adaptive mechanisms including developmental plasticity, predictive adaptive responses and differential susceptibility. Ultimately, the contribution of evolutionary science to psychotraumatology is the idea that experimental and clinical studies should shift the focus of research from the external environment (defined as all stressful factors external to the subjects under investigation) to the ecological environment (defined as those stressful factors of the external environment that have a greater potential to threaten the adaptive equilibrium of the subjects under investigation because of their evolved inclinations). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-mass X-ray binary populations. 1: Galactic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalton, William W.; Sarazin, Craig L.

1995-01-01

Modern stellar evolutionary tracks are used to calculate the evolution of a very large number of massive binary star systems (M(sub tot) greater than or = 15 solar mass) which cover a wide range of total masses, mass ratios, and starting separations. Each binary is evolved accounting for mass and angular momentum loss through the supernova of the primary to the X-ray binary phase. Using the observed rate of star formation in our Galaxy and the properties of massive binaries, we calculate the expected high-mass X-ray binary (HMXRB) population in the Galaxy. We test various massive binary evolutionary scenarios by comparing the resulting HMXRB predictions with the X-ray observations. A major goal of this study is the determination of the fraction of matter lost from the system during the Roche lobe overflow phase. Curiously, we find that the total numbers of observable HMXRBs are nearly independent of this assumed mass-loss fraction, with any of the values tested here giving acceptable agreement between predicted and observed numbers. However, comparison of the period distribution of our HMXRB models with the observed period distribution does reveal a distinction among the various models. As a result of this comparison, we conclude that approximately 70% of the overflow matter is lost from a massive binary system during mass transfer in the Roche lobe overflow phase. We compare models constructed assuming that all X-ray emission is due to accretion onto the compact object from the donor star's wind with models that incorporate a simplified disk accretion scheme. By comparing the results of these models with observations, we conclude that the formation of disks in HMXRBs must be relatively common. We also calculate the rate of formation of double degenerate binaries, high velocity detached compact objects, and Thorne-Zytkow objects.

Model-driven discovery of underground metabolic functions in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Guzmán, Gabriela I; Utrilla, José; Nurk, Sergey; Brunk, Elizabeth; Monk, Jonathan M; Ebrahim, Ali; Palsson, Bernhard O; Feist, Adam M

2015-01-20

Enzyme promiscuity toward substrates has been discussed in evolutionary terms as providing the flexibility to adapt to novel environments. In the present work, we describe an approach toward exploring such enzyme promiscuity in the space of a metabolic network. This approach leverages genome-scale models, which have been widely used for predicting growth phenotypes in various environments or following a genetic perturbation; however, these predictions occasionally fail. Failed predictions of gene essentiality offer an opportunity for targeting biological discovery, suggesting the presence of unknown underground pathways stemming from enzymatic cross-reactivity. We demonstrate a workflow that couples constraint-based modeling and bioinformatic tools with KO strain analysis and adaptive laboratory evolution for the purpose of predicting promiscuity at the genome scale. Three cases of genes that are incorrectly predicted as essential in Escherichia coli--aspC, argD, and gltA--are examined, and isozyme functions are uncovered for each to a different extent. Seven isozyme functions based on genetic and transcriptional evidence are suggested between the genes aspC and tyrB, argD and astC, gabT and puuE, and gltA and prpC. This study demonstrates how a targeted model-driven approach to discovery can systematically fill knowledge gaps, characterize underground metabolism, and elucidate regulatory mechanisms of adaptation in response to gene KO perturbations.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-01-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience. PMID:26983802

Size-assortative mating and sexual size dimorphism are predictable from simple mechanics of mate-grasping behavior

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A major challenge in evolutionary biology is to understand the typically complex interactions between diverse counter-balancing factors of Darwinian selection for size assortative mating and sexual size dimorphism. It appears that rarely a simple mechanism could provide a major explanation of these phenomena. Mechanics of behaviors can predict animal morphology, such like adaptations to locomotion in animals from various of taxa, but its potential to predict size-assortative mating and its evolutionary consequences has been less explored. Mate-grasping by males, using specialized adaptive morphologies of their forelegs, midlegs or even antennae wrapped around female body at specific locations, is a general mating strategy of many animals, but the contribution of the mechanics of this wide-spread behavior to the evolution of mating behavior and sexual size dimorphism has been largely ignored. Results Here, we explore the consequences of a simple, and previously ignored, fact that in a grasping posture the position of the male's grasping appendages relative to the female's body is often a function of body size difference between the sexes. Using an approach taken from robot mechanics we model coercive grasping of females by water strider Gerris gracilicornis males during mating initiation struggles. We determine that the male optimal size (relative to the female size), which gives the males the highest grasping force, properly predicts the experimentally measured highest mating success. Through field sampling and simulation modeling of a natural population we determine that the simple mechanical model, which ignores most of the other hypothetical counter-balancing selection pressures on body size, is sufficient to account for size-assortative mating pattern as well as species-specific sexual dimorphism in body size of G. gracilicornis. Conclusion The results indicate how a simple and previously overlooked physical mechanism common in many taxa is sufficient to account for, or importantly contribute to, size-assortative mating and its consequences for the evolution of sexual size dimorphism. PMID:21092131

On the maintenance of genetic variation and adaptation to environmental change: considerations from population genomics in fishes.

PubMed

Bernatchez, L

2016-12-01

The first goal of this paper was to overview modern approaches to local adaptation, with a focus on the use of population genomics data to detect signals of natural selection in fishes. Several mechanisms are discussed that may enhance the maintenance of genetic variation and evolutionary potential, which have been overlooked and should be considered in future theoretical development and predictive models: the prevalence of soft sweeps, polygenic basis of adaptation, balancing selection and transient polymorphisms, parallel evolution, as well as epigenetic variation. Research on fish population genomics has provided ample evidence for local adaptation at the genome level. Pervasive adaptive evolution, however, seems to almost never involve the fixation of beneficial alleles. Instead, adaptation apparently proceeds most commonly by soft sweeps entailing shifts in frequencies of alleles being shared between differentially adapted populations. One obvious factor contributing to the maintenance of standing genetic variation in the face of selective pressures is that adaptive phenotypic traits are most often highly polygenic, and consequently the response to selection should derive mostly from allelic co-variances among causative loci rather than pronounced allele frequency changes. Balancing selection in its various forms may also play an important role in maintaining adaptive genetic variation and the evolutionary potential of species to cope with environmental change. A large body of literature on fishes also shows that repeated evolution of adaptive phenotypes is a ubiquitous evolutionary phenomenon that seems to occur most often via different genetic solutions, further adding to the potential options of species to cope with a changing environment. Moreover, a paradox is emerging from recent fish studies whereby populations of highly reduced effective population sizes and impoverished genetic diversity can apparently retain their adaptive potential in some circumstances. Although more empirical support is needed, several recent studies suggest that epigenetic variation could account for this apparent paradox. Therefore, epigenetic variation should be fully integrated with considerations pertaining to role of soft sweeps, polygenic and balancing selection, as well as repeated adaptation involving different genetic basis towards improving models predicting the evolutionary potential of species to cope with a changing world. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Many-objective Groundwater Monitoring Network Design Using Bias-Aware Ensemble Kalman Filtering and Evolutionary Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollat, J. B.; Reed, P. M.

2009-12-01

This study contributes the ASSIST (Adaptive Strategies for Sampling in Space and Time) framework for improving long-term groundwater monitoring decisions across space and time while accounting for the influences of systematic model errors (or predictive bias). The ASSIST framework combines contaminant flow-and-transport modeling, bias-aware ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) and many-objective evolutionary optimization. Our goal in this work is to provide decision makers with a fuller understanding of the information tradeoffs they must confront when performing long-term groundwater monitoring network design. Our many-objective analysis considers up to 6 design objectives simultaneously and consequently synthesizes prior monitoring network design methodologies into a single, flexible framework. This study demonstrates the ASSIST framework using a tracer study conducted within a physical aquifer transport experimental tank located at the University of Vermont. The tank tracer experiment was extensively sampled to provide high resolution estimates of tracer plume behavior. The simulation component of the ASSIST framework consists of stochastic ensemble flow-and-transport predictions using ParFlow coupled with the Lagrangian SLIM transport model. The ParFlow and SLIM ensemble predictions are conditioned with tracer observations using a bias-aware EnKF. The EnKF allows decision makers to enhance plume transport predictions in space and time in the presence of uncertain and biased model predictions by conditioning them on uncertain measurement data. In this initial demonstration, the position and frequency of sampling were optimized to: (i) minimize monitoring cost, (ii) maximize information provided to the EnKF, (iii) minimize failure to detect the tracer, (iv) maximize the detection of tracer flux, (v) minimize error in quantifying tracer mass, and (vi) minimize error in quantifying the moment of the tracer plume. The results demonstrate that the many-objective problem formulation provides a tremendous amount of information for decision makers. Specifically our many-objective analysis highlights the limitations and potentially negative design consequences of traditional single and two-objective problem formulations. These consequences become apparent through visual exploration of high-dimensional tradeoffs and the identification of regions with interesting compromise solutions. The prediction characteristics of these compromise designs are explored in detail, as well as their implications for subsequent design decisions in both space and time.

Computational Fluid Dynamic Solutions of Optimized Heat Shields Designed for Earth Entry

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

domain ρ = Density (kg/m3) σ = Stefan Boltzmann constant τ = Shear stress tensor τT−V = T-V relaxation time τe−V = e-V relaxation time xi φ = Sweep angle...Vehicle DES = Differential evolutionary Scheme DOR = Design Optimization Tools DPLR = Data Parallel Line Relaxation GSLR = Gauss- Seidel Line... Stefan - Boltzmann constant. This model provides accurate heating predictions, especially for the non-ablating heat-shields explored in this work. Various

Phenotypic landscape inference reveals multiple evolutionary paths to C4 photosynthesis

PubMed Central

Williams, Ben P; Johnston, Iain G; Covshoff, Sarah; Hibberd, Julian M

2013-01-01

C4 photosynthesis has independently evolved from the ancestral C3 pathway in at least 60 plant lineages, but, as with other complex traits, how it evolved is unclear. Here we show that the polyphyletic appearance of C4 photosynthesis is associated with diverse and flexible evolutionary paths that group into four major trajectories. We conducted a meta-analysis of 18 lineages containing species that use C3, C4, or intermediate C3–C4 forms of photosynthesis to parameterise a 16-dimensional phenotypic landscape. We then developed and experimentally verified a novel Bayesian approach based on a hidden Markov model that predicts how the C4 phenotype evolved. The alternative evolutionary histories underlying the appearance of C4 photosynthesis were determined by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic alterations unrelated to photosynthesis. We conclude that the order of C4 trait acquisition is flexible and driven by non-photosynthetic drivers. This flexibility will have facilitated the convergent evolution of this complex trait. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00961.001 PMID:24082995

Quantitative genetic correlation between trait and preference supports a sexually selected sperm process

PubMed Central

Simmons, Leigh W.; Kotiaho, Janne S.

2007-01-01

Sperm show patterns of rapid and divergent evolution that are characteristic of sexual selection. Sperm competition has been proposed as an important selective agent in the evolution of sperm morphology. However, several comparative analyses have revealed evolutionary associations between sperm length and female reproductive tract morphology that suggest patterns of male–female coevolution. In the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus, males with short sperm have a fertilization advantage that depends on the size of the female's sperm storage organ, the spermatheca; large spermathecae select for short sperm. Sperm length is heritable and is genetically correlated with male condition. Here we report significant additive genetic variation and heritability for spermatheca size and genetic covariance between spermatheca size and sperm length predicted by both the “good-sperm” and “sexy-sperm” models of postcopulatory female preference. Our data thus provide quantitative genetic support for the role of a sexually selected sperm process in the evolutionary divergence of sperm morphology, in much the same manner as precopulatory female preferences drive the evolutionary divergence of male secondary sexual traits. PMID:17921254

The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

2017-07-01

This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

Evolution of fairness and coalition formation in three-person ultimatum games.

PubMed

Nishimura, Takeshi; Okada, Akira; Shirata, Yasuhiro

2017-05-07

We consider the evolution of fairness and coalition formation in a three-person ultimatum game in which the coalition value depends on its size. Traditional game theory, which assumes selfish and rational players, predicts the largest and efficient coalition with a proposer exploiting most of the total value. In a stochastic evolutionary model (the frequency-dependent Moran process with mutations) where players make errors in estimating the payoffs and strategies of others, evolutionary selection favors the formation of a two-person subcoalition under weak selection and in the low mutation limit if and only if its coalition value exceeds a high proportion (0.7) of that of the largest coalition. Proposers offer 30-35% of the subcoalition value to a coalition member, excluding a non-member. Multilateral bargaining is critically different from the bilateral one. Coalition-forming behavior may cause economic inefficiency and social exclusion. Stochastic evolutionary game theory thus provides theoretical support to explain the behavior of human subjects in economic experiments of a three-person ultimatum game. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic multipopulation and density dependent evolutionary games related to replicator dynamics. A metasimplex concept.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2006-07-01

This paper contains the basic extensions of classical evolutionary games (multipopulation and density dependent models). It is shown that classical bimatrix approach is inconsistent with other approaches because it does not depend on proportion between populations. The main conclusion is that interspecific proportion parameter is important and must be considered in multipopulation models. The paper provides a synthesis of both extensions (a metasimplex concept) which solves the problem intrinsic in the bimatrix model. It allows us to model interactions among any number of subpopulations including density dependence effects. We prove that all modern approaches to evolutionary games are closely related. All evolutionary models (except classical bimatrix approaches) can be reduced to a single population general model by a simple change of variables. Differences between classic bimatrix evolutionary games and a new model which is dependent on interspecific proportion are shown by examples.

Sequence co-evolution gives 3D contacts and structures of protein complexes

PubMed Central

Hopf, Thomas A; Schärfe, Charlotta P I; Rodrigues, João P G L M; Green, Anna G; Kohlbacher, Oliver; Sander, Chris; Bonvin, Alexandre M J J; Marks, Debora S

2014-01-01

Protein–protein interactions are fundamental to many biological processes. Experimental screens have identified tens of thousands of interactions, and structural biology has provided detailed functional insight for select 3D protein complexes. An alternative rich source of information about protein interactions is the evolutionary sequence record. Building on earlier work, we show that analysis of correlated evolutionary sequence changes across proteins identifies residues that are close in space with sufficient accuracy to determine the three-dimensional structure of the protein complexes. We evaluate prediction performance in blinded tests on 76 complexes of known 3D structure, predict protein–protein contacts in 32 complexes of unknown structure, and demonstrate how evolutionary couplings can be used to distinguish between interacting and non-interacting protein pairs in a large complex. With the current growth of sequences, we expect that the method can be generalized to genome-wide elucidation of protein–protein interaction networks and used for interaction predictions at residue resolution. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03430.001 PMID:25255213

Predicting the evolution of complex networks via similarity dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Chen, Leiting; Zhong, Linfeng; Xian, Xingping

2017-01-01

Almost all real-world networks are subject to constant evolution, and plenty of them have been investigated empirically to uncover the underlying evolution mechanism. However, the evolution prediction of dynamic networks still remains a challenging problem. The crux of this matter is to estimate the future network links of dynamic networks. This paper studies the evolution prediction of dynamic networks with link prediction paradigm. To estimate the likelihood of the existence of links more accurate, an effective and robust similarity index is presented by exploiting network structure adaptively. Moreover, most of the existing link prediction methods do not make a clear distinction between future links and missing links. In order to predict the future links, the networks are regarded as dynamic systems in this paper, and a similarity updating method, spatial-temporal position drift model, is developed to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of node similarity. Then the updated similarities are used as input information for the future links' likelihood estimation. Extensive experiments on real-world networks suggest that the proposed similarity index performs better than baseline methods and the position drift model performs well for evolution prediction in real-world evolving networks.

Hidden state prediction: a modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses

PubMed Central

Zaneveld, Jesse R. R.; Thurber, Rebecca L. V.

2014-01-01

Complex symbioses between animal or plant hosts and their associated microbiotas can involve thousands of species and millions of genes. Because of the number of interacting partners, it is often impractical to study all organisms or genes in these host-microbe symbioses individually. Yet new phylogenetic predictive methods can use the wealth of accumulated data on diverse model organisms to make inferences into the properties of less well-studied species and gene families. Predictive functional profiling methods use evolutionary models based on the properties of studied relatives to put bounds on the likely characteristics of an organism or gene that has not yet been studied in detail. These techniques have been applied to predict diverse features of host-associated microbial communities ranging from the enzymatic function of uncharacterized genes to the gene content of uncultured microorganisms. We consider these phylogenetically informed predictive techniques from disparate fields as examples of a general class of algorithms for Hidden State Prediction (HSP), and argue that HSP methods have broad value in predicting organismal traits in a variety of contexts, including the study of complex host-microbe symbioses. PMID:25202302

RaptorX-Property: a web server for protein structure property prediction.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Li, Wei; Liu, Shiwang; Xu, Jinbo

2016-07-08

RaptorX Property (http://raptorx2.uchicago.edu/StructurePropertyPred/predict/) is a web server predicting structure property of a protein sequence without using any templates. It outperforms other servers, especially for proteins without close homologs in PDB or with very sparse sequence profile (i.e. carries little evolutionary information). This server employs a powerful in-house deep learning model DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields) to predict secondary structure (SS), solvent accessibility (ACC) and disorder regions (DISO). DeepCNF not only models complex sequence-structure relationship by a deep hierarchical architecture, but also interdependency between adjacent property labels. Our experimental results show that, tested on CASP10, CASP11 and the other benchmarks, this server can obtain ∼84% Q3 accuracy for 3-state SS, ∼72% Q8 accuracy for 8-state SS, ∼66% Q3 accuracy for 3-state solvent accessibility, and ∼0.89 area under the ROC curve (AUC) for disorder prediction. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective.

PubMed

Lion, Sébastien

2018-01-01

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Evolutionary history of human disease genes reveals phenotypic connections and comorbidity among genetic diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Solip; Yang, Jae-Seong; Kim, Jinho; Shin, Young-Eun; Hwang, Jihye; Park, Juyong; Jang, Sung Key; Kim, Sanguk

2012-10-01

The extent to which evolutionary changes have impacted the phenotypic relationships among human diseases remains unclear. In this work, we report that phenotypically similar diseases are connected by the evolutionary constraints on human disease genes. Human disease groups can be classified into slowly or rapidly evolving classes, where the diseases in the slowly evolving class are enriched with morphological phenotypes and those in the rapidly evolving class are enriched with physiological phenotypes. Our findings establish a clear evolutionary connection between disease classes and disease phenotypes for the first time. Furthermore, the high comorbidity found between diseases connected by similar evolutionary constraints enables us to improve the predictability of the relative risk of human diseases. We find the evolutionary constraints on disease genes are a new layer of molecular connection in the network-based exploration of human diseases.

Evolutionary history of human disease genes reveals phenotypic connections and comorbidity among genetic diseases.

PubMed

Park, Solip; Yang, Jae-Seong; Kim, Jinho; Shin, Young-Eun; Hwang, Jihye; Park, Juyong; Jang, Sung Key; Kim, Sanguk

2012-01-01

The extent to which evolutionary changes have impacted the phenotypic relationships among human diseases remains unclear. In this work, we report that phenotypically similar diseases are connected by the evolutionary constraints on human disease genes. Human disease groups can be classified into slowly or rapidly evolving classes, where the diseases in the slowly evolving class are enriched with morphological phenotypes and those in the rapidly evolving class are enriched with physiological phenotypes. Our findings establish a clear evolutionary connection between disease classes and disease phenotypes for the first time. Furthermore, the high comorbidity found between diseases connected by similar evolutionary constraints enables us to improve the predictability of the relative risk of human diseases. We find the evolutionary constraints on disease genes are a new layer of molecular connection in the network-based exploration of human diseases.

The extended evolutionary synthesis: its structure, assumptions and predictions

PubMed Central

Laland, Kevin N.; Uller, Tobias; Feldman, Marcus W.; Sterelny, Kim; Müller, Gerd B.; Moczek, Armin; Jablonka, Eva; Odling-Smee, John

2015-01-01

Scientific activities take place within the structured sets of ideas and assumptions that define a field and its practices. The conceptual framework of evolutionary biology emerged with the Modern Synthesis in the early twentieth century and has since expanded into a highly successful research program to explore the processes of diversification and adaptation. Nonetheless, the ability of that framework satisfactorily to accommodate the rapid advances in developmental biology, genomics and ecology has been questioned. We review some of these arguments, focusing on literatures (evo-devo, developmental plasticity, inclusive inheritance and niche construction) whose implications for evolution can be interpreted in two ways—one that preserves the internal structure of contemporary evolutionary theory and one that points towards an alternative conceptual framework. The latter, which we label the ‘extended evolutionary synthesis' (EES), retains the fundaments of evolutionary theory, but differs in its emphasis on the role of constructive processes in development and evolution, and reciprocal portrayals of causation. In the EES, developmental processes, operating through developmental bias, inclusive inheritance and niche construction, share responsibility for the direction and rate of evolution, the origin of character variation and organism–environment complementarity. We spell out the structure, core assumptions and novel predictions of the EES, and show how it can be deployed to stimulate and advance research in those fields that study or use evolutionary biology. PMID:26246559

True-Triaxial Experimental Study of the Evolutionary Features of the Acoustic Emissions and Sounds of Rockburst Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Guoshao; Shi, Yanjiong; Feng, Xiating; Jiang, Jianqing; Zhang, Jie; Jiang, Quan

2018-02-01

Rockbursts are markedly characterized by the ejection of rock fragments from host rocks at certain speeds. The rockburst process is always accompanied by acoustic signals that include acoustic emissions (AE) and sounds. A deep insight into the evolutionary features of AE and sound signals is important to improve the accuracy of rockburst prediction. To investigate the evolutionary features of AE and sound signals, rockburst tests on granite rock specimens under true-triaxial loading conditions were performed using an improved rockburst testing system, and the AE and sounds during rockburst development were recorded and analyzed. The results show that the evolutionary features of the AE and sound signals were obvious and similar. On the eve of a rockburst, a `quiescent period' could be observed in both the evolutionary process of the AE hits and the sound waveform. Furthermore, the time-dependent fractal dimensions of the AE hits and sound amplitude both showed a tendency to continuously decrease on the eve of the rockbursts. In addition, on the eve of the rockbursts, the main frequency of the AE and sound signals both showed decreasing trends, and the frequency spectrum distributions were both characterized by low amplitudes, wide frequency bands and multiple peak shapes. Thus, the evolutionary features of sound signals on the eve of rockbursts, as well as that of AE signals, can be used as beneficial information for rockburst prediction.

Biogeography predicts macro-evolutionary patterning of gestural display complexity in a passerine family.

PubMed

Miles, Meredith C; Cheng, Samantha; Fuxjager, Matthew J

2017-05-01

Gestural displays are incorporated into the signaling repertoire of numerous animal species. These displays range from complex signals that involve impressive and challenging maneuvers, to simpler displays or no gesture at all. The factors that drive this evolution remain largely unclear, and we therefore investigate this issue in New World blackbirds by testing how factors related to a species' geographical distribution and social mating system predict macro-evolutionary patterns of display elaboration. We report that species inhabiting temperate regions produce more complex displays than species living in tropical regions, and we attribute this to (i) ecological factors that increase the competitiveness of the social environment in temperate regions, and (ii) different evolutionary and geological contexts under which species in temperate and tropical regions evolved. Meanwhile, we find no evidence that social mating system predicts species differences in display complexity, which is consistent with the idea that gestural displays evolve independently of social mating system. Together, these results offer some of the first insight into the role played by geographic factors and evolutionary context in the evolution of the remarkable physical displays of birds and other vertebrates. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Equilibria, information and frustration in heterogeneous network games with conflicting preferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoli, M.; Sánchez, A.

2017-11-01

Interactions between people are the basis on which the structure of our society arises as a complex system and, at the same time, are the starting point of any physical description of it. In the last few years, much theoretical research has addressed this issue by combining the physics of complex networks with a description of interactions in terms of evolutionary game theory. We here take this research a step further by introducing a most salient societal factor such as the individuals’ preferences, a characteristic that is key to understanding much of the social phenomenology these days. We consider a heterogeneous, agent-based model in which agents interact strategically with their neighbors, but their preferences and payoffs for the possible actions differ. We study how such a heterogeneous network behaves under evolutionary dynamics and different strategic interactions, namely coordination games and best shot games. With this model we study the emergence of the equilibria predicted analytically in random graphs under best response dynamics, and we extend this test to unexplored contexts like proportional imitation and scale free networks. We show that some theoretically predicted equilibria do not arise in simulations with incomplete information, and we demonstrate the importance of the graph topology and the payoff function parameters for some games. Finally, we discuss our results with the available experimental evidence on coordination games, showing that our model agrees better with the experiment than standard economic theories, and draw hints as to how to maximize social efficiency in situations of conflicting preferences.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

The predictability of evolution: glimpses into a post-Darwinian world.

PubMed

Conway Morris, Simon

2009-11-01

The very success of the Darwinian explanation, in not only demonstrating evolution from multiple lines of evidence but also in providing some plausible explanations, paradoxically seems to have served to have stifled explorations into other areas of investigation. The fact of evolution is now almost universally yoked to the assumption that its outcomes are random, trends are little more than drunkard's walks, and most evolutionary products are masterpieces of improvisation and far from perfect. But is this correct? Let us consider some alternatives. Is there evidence that evolution could in anyway be predictable? Can we identify alternative forms of biological organizations and if so how viable are they? Why are some molecules so extraordinarily versatile, while others can be spoken of as "molecules of choice"? How fortuitous are the major transitions in the history of life? What implications might this have for the Tree of Life? To what extent is evolutionary diversification constrained or facilitated by prior states? Are evolutionary outcomes merely sufficient or alternatively are they highly efficient, even superb? Here I argue that in sharp contradistinction to an orthodox Darwinian view, not only is evolution much more predictable than generally assumed but also investigation of its organizational substrates, including those of sensory systems, which indicates that it is possible to identify a predictability to the process and outcomes of evolution. If correct, the implications may be of some significance, not least in separating the unexceptional Darwinian mechanisms from underlying organizational principles, which may indicate evolutionary inevitabilities.

Why flying dogs are rare: A general theory of luck in evolutionary transitions.

PubMed

Fleming, Leonore; Brandon, Robert

2015-02-01

There is a worry that the 'major transitions in evolution' represent an arbitrary group of events. This worry is warranted, and we show why. We argue that the transition to a new level of hierarchy necessarily involves a nonselectionist chance process. Thus any unified theory of evolutionary transitions must be more like a general theory of fortuitous luck, rather than a rigid formulation of expected events. We provide a systematic account of evolutionary transitions based on a second-order regularity of chance events, as stipulated by the ZFEL (Zero Force Evolutionary Law). And in doing so, we make evolutionary transitions explainable and predictable, and so not entirely contingent after all. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

PubMed

Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

2016-06-01

Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

Evolutionary Dynamics on Protein Bi-stability Landscapes can Potentially Resolve Adaptive Conflicts

PubMed Central

Sikosek, Tobias; Bornberg-Bauer, Erich; Chan, Hue Sun

2012-01-01

Experimental studies have shown that some proteins exist in two alternative native-state conformations. It has been proposed that such bi-stable proteins can potentially function as evolutionary bridges at the interface between two neutral networks of protein sequences that fold uniquely into the two different native conformations. Under adaptive conflict scenarios, bi-stable proteins may be of particular advantage if they simultaneously provide two beneficial biological functions. However, computational models that simulate protein structure evolution do not yet recognize the importance of bi-stability. Here we use a biophysical model to analyze sequence space to identify bi-stable or multi-stable proteins with two or more equally stable native-state structures. The inclusion of such proteins enhances phenotype connectivity between neutral networks in sequence space. Consideration of the sequence space neighborhood of bridge proteins revealed that bi-stability decreases gradually with each mutation that takes the sequence further away from an exactly bi-stable protein. With relaxed selection pressures, we found that bi-stable proteins in our model are highly successful under simulated adaptive conflict. Inspired by these model predictions, we developed a method to identify real proteins in the PDB with bridge-like properties, and have verified a clear bi-stability gradient for a series of mutants studied by Alexander et al. (Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 2009, 106:21149–21154) that connect two sequences that fold uniquely into two different native structures via a bridge-like intermediate mutant sequence. Based on these findings, new testable predictions for future studies on protein bi-stability and evolution are discussed. PMID:23028272

Past, Present and Future Distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: Ecological and Evolutionary Clues from Species Distribution Models

PubMed Central

Acevedo, Pelayo; Melo-Ferreira, José; Real, Raimundo; Alves, Paulo Célio

2012-01-01

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing and assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past and predict current and future species distributions. However, the accuracy of SDMs depends on the quality of the data and on appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive data on the current distribution of the Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were used to i) determine the species’ ecogeographical constraints, ii) hindcast a climatic model for the last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it to inferences derived from molecular studies, and iii) calibrate a model to assess the species future distribution trends (up to 2080). Our results showed that the climatic factor (in its pure effect and when it is combined with the land-cover factor) is the most important descriptor of the current distribution of the Iberian hare. In addition, the model’s output was a reliable index of the local probability of species occurrence, which is a valuable tool to guide species management decisions and conservation planning. Climatic potential obtained for the LGM was combined with molecular data and the results suggest that several glacial refugia may have existed for the species within the major Iberian refugium. Finally, a high probability of occurrence of the Iberian hare in the current species range and a northward expansion were predicted for future. Given its current environmental envelope and evolutionary history, we discuss the macroecology of the Iberian hare and its sensitivity to climate change. PMID:23272115

Water isotopologues in the circumstellar envelopes of M-type AGB stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danilovich, T.; Lombaert, R.; Decin, L.; Karakas, A.; Maercker, M.; Olofsson, H.

2017-06-01

Aims: In this study we intend to examine rotational emission lines of two isotopologues of water: H217O and H218O. By determining the abundances of these molecules, we aim to use the derived isotopologue - and hence oxygen isotope - ratios to put constraints on the masses of a sample of M-type AGB stars that have not been classified as OH/IR stars. Methods: We have used detailed radiative transfer analysis based on the accelerated lambda iteration method to model the circumstellar molecular line emission of H217O and H218O for IK Tau, R Dor, W Hya, and R Cas. The emission lines used to constrain our models came from Herschel/HIFI and Herschel/PACS observations and are all optically thick, meaning that full radiative transfer analysis is the only viable method of estimating molecular abundance ratios. Results: We find generally low values of the 17O/18O ratio for our sample, ranging from 0.15 to 0.69. This correlates with relatively low initial masses, in the range 1.0 to 1.5 M⊙ for each source, based on stellar evolutionary models. We also find ortho-to-para ratios close to 3, which are expected from warm formation predictions. Conclusions: The 17O/18O ratios found for this sample are at the lower end of the range predicted by stellar evolutionary models, indicating that the sample chosen had relatively low initial masses. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Sperm economy between female mating frequency and male ejaculate allocation.

PubMed

Abe, Jun; Kamimura, Yoshitaka

2015-03-01

Why females of many species mate multiply is a major question in evolutionary biology. Furthermore, if females accept matings more than once, ejaculates from different males compete for fertilization (sperm competition), which confronts males with the decision of how to allocate their reproductive resources to each mating event. Although most existing models have examined either female mating frequency or male ejaculate allocation while assuming fixed levels of the opposite sex's strategies, these strategies are likely to coevolve. To investigate how the interaction of the two sexes' strategies is influenced by the level of sperm limitation in the population, we developed models in which females adjust their number of allowable matings and males allocate their ejaculate in each mating. Our model predicts that females mate only once or less than once at an even sex ratio or in an extremely female-biased condition, because of female resistance and sperm limitation in the population, respectively. However, in a moderately female-biased condition, males favor partitioning their reproductive budgets across many females, whereas females favor multiple matings to obtain sufficient sperm, which contradicts the predictions of most existing models. We discuss our model's predictions and relationships with the existing models and demonstrate applications for empirical findings.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

PubMed

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference

PubMed Central

Campbell, John O.

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an “experiment” in the external world environment, and the results of that “experiment” or the “surprise” entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the “experiment.” Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of “surprise” experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature. PMID:27375438

Interspecific Tests of Allelism Reveal the Evolutionary Timing and Pattern of Accumulation of Reproductive Isolation Mutations

PubMed Central

Sherman, Natasha A.; Victorine, Anna; Wang, Richard J.; Moyle, Leonie C.

2014-01-01

Despite extensive theory, little is known about the empirical accumulation and evolutionary timing of mutations that contribute to speciation. Here we combined QTL (Quantitative Trait Loci) analyses of reproductive isolation, with information on species evolutionary relationships, to reconstruct the order and timing of mutations contributing to reproductive isolation between three plant (Solanum) species. To evaluate whether reproductive isolation QTL that appear to coincide in more than one species pair are homologous, we used cross-specific tests of allelism and found evidence for both homologous and lineage-specific (non-homologous) alleles at these co-localized loci. These data, along with isolation QTL unique to single species pairs, indicate that >85% of isolation-causing mutations arose later in the history of divergence between species. Phylogenetically explicit analyses of these data support non-linear models of accumulation of hybrid incompatibility, although the specific best-fit model differs between seed (pairwise interactions) and pollen (multi-locus interactions) sterility traits. Our findings corroborate theory that predicts an acceleration (‘snowballing’) in the accumulation of isolation loci as lineages progressively diverge, and suggest different underlying genetic bases for pollen versus seed sterility. Pollen sterility in particular appears to be due to complex genetic interactions, and we show this is consistent with a snowball model where later arising mutations are more likely to be involved in pairwise or multi-locus interactions that specifically involve ancestral alleles, compared to earlier arising mutations. PMID:25211473

Asymmetric ecological conditions favor Red-Queen type of continued evolution over stasis

PubMed Central

Nordbotten, Jan Martin; Stenseth, Nils C.

2016-01-01

Four decades ago, Leigh Van Valen presented the Red Queen’s hypothesis to account for evolution of species within a multispecies ecological community [Van Valen L (1973) Evol Theory 1(1):1–30]. The overall conclusion of Van Valen’s analysis was that evolution would continue even in the absence of abiotic perturbations. Stenseth and Maynard Smith presented in 1984 [Stenseth NC, Maynard Smith J (1984) Evolution 38(4):870–880] a model for the Red Queen’s hypothesis showing that both Red-Queen type of continuous evolution and stasis could result from a model with biotically driven evolution. However, although that contribution demonstrated that both evolutionary outcomes were possible, it did not identify which ecological conditions would lead to each of these evolutionary outcomes. Here, we provide, using a simple, yet general population-biologically founded eco-evolutionary model, such analytically derived conditions: Stasis will predominantly emerge whenever the ecological system contains only symmetric ecological interactions, whereas both Red-Queen and stasis type of evolution may result if the ecological interactions are asymmetrical, and more likely so with increasing degree of asymmetry in the ecological system (i.e., the more trophic interactions, host–pathogen interactions, and the like there are [i.e., +/− type of ecological interactions as well as asymmetric competitive (−/−) and mutualistic (+/+) ecological interactions]). In the special case of no between-generational genetic variance, our results also predict dynamics within these types of purely ecological systems. PMID:26831108

Risk attitudes in a changing environment: An evolutionary model of the fourfold pattern of risk preferences.

PubMed

Mallpress, Dave E W; Fawcett, Tim W; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

2015-04-01

A striking feature of human decision making is the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, involving risk-averse behavior in situations of unlikely losses and likely gains, but risk-seeking behavior in response to likely losses and unlikely gains. Current theories to explain this pattern assume particular psychological processes to reproduce empirical observations, but do not address whether it is adaptive for the decision maker to respond to risk in this way. Here, drawing on insights from behavioral ecology, we build an evolutionary model of risk-sensitive behavior, to investigate whether particular types of environmental conditions could favor a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. We consider an individual foraging in a changing environment, where energy is needed to prevent starvation and build up reserves for reproduction. The outcome, in terms of reproductive value (a rigorous measure of evolutionary success), of a one-off choice between a risky and a safe gain, or between a risky and a safe loss, determines the risk-sensitive behavior we should expect to see in this environment. Our results show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes may be adaptive in an environment in which conditions vary stochastically but are autocorrelated in time. In such an environment the current options provide information about the likely environmental conditions in the future, which affect the optimal pattern of risk sensitivity. Our model predicts that risk preferences should be both path dependent and affected by the decision maker's current state. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Measuring Fundamental Parameters of Substellar Objects. I. Surface Gravities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, Subhanjoy; Basri, Gibor; Jayawardhana, Ray; Allard, France; Hauschildt, Peter; Ardila, David

2004-07-01

We present an analysis of high-resolution optical spectra for a sample of very young, mid- to late-M, low-mass stellar and substellar objects: 11 in the Upper Scorpius association, and two (GG Tau Ba and Bb) in the Taurus star-forming region. Effective temperatures and surface gravities are derived from a multiple-feature spectral analysis using TiO, Na I, and K I, through comparison with the latest synthetic spectra. We show that these spectral diagnostics complement each other, removing degeneracies with temperature and gravity in the behavior of each. In combination, they allow us to determine temperature to within 50 K and gravity to within 0.25 dex, in very cool young objects. Our high-resolution spectral analysis does not require extinction estimates. Moreover, it yields temperatures and gravities independent of theoretical evolutionary models (although our estimates do depend on the synthetic spectral modeling). We find that our gravities for most of the sample agree remarkably well with the isochrone predictions for the likely cluster ages. However, discrepancies appear in our coolest targets: these appear to have significantly lower gravity (by up to 0.75 dex) than our hotter objects, even though our entire sample covers a relatively narrow range in effective temperature (~300 K). This drop in gravity is also implied by intercomparisons of the data alone, without recourse to synthetic spectra. We consider, and argue against, dust opacity, cool stellar spots, or metallicity differences leading to the observed spectral effects; a real decline in gravity is strongly indicated. Such gravity variations are contrary to the predictions of the evolutionary tracks, causing improbably low ages to be inferred from the tracks for our coolest targets. Through a simple consideration of contraction timescales, we quantify the age errors introduced into the tracks through the particular choice of initial conditions and demonstrate that they can be significant for low-mass objects that are only a few megayears old. However, we also find that these errors appear insufficient to explain the magnitude of the age offsets in our lowest gravity targets. We venture that this apparent age offset may arise from evolutionary model uncertainties related to accretion, deuterium burning and/or convection effects. Finally, when combined with photometry and distance information, our technique for deriving surface gravities and effective temperatures provides a way of obtaining masses and radii for substellar objects independent of evolutionary models; radius and mass determinations are presented in Paper II.

An integrative model of evolutionary covariance: a symposium on body shape in fishes.

PubMed

Walker, Jeffrey A

2010-12-01

A major direction of current and future biological research is to understand how multiple, interacting functional systems coordinate in producing a body that works. This understanding is complicated by the fact that organisms need to work well in multiple environments, with both predictable and unpredictable environmental perturbations. Furthermore, organismal design reflects a history of past environments and not a plan for future environments. How complex, interacting functional systems evolve, then, is a truly grand challenge. In accepting the challenge, an integrative model of evolutionary covariance is developed. The model combines quantitative genetics, functional morphology/physiology, and functional ecology. The model is used to convene scientists ranging from geneticists, to physiologists, to ecologists, to engineers to facilitate the emergence of body shape in fishes as a model system for understanding how complex, interacting functional systems develop and evolve. Body shape of fish is a complex morphology that (1) results from many developmental paths and (2) functions in many different behaviors. Understanding the coordination and evolution of the many paths from genes to body shape, body shape to function, and function to a working fish body in a dynamic environment is now possible given new technologies from genetics to engineering and new theoretical models that integrate the different levels of biological organization (from genes to ecology).

Commitment in Age-Gap Heterosexual Romantic Relationships: A Test of Evolutionary and Socio-Cultural Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lehmiller, Justin J.; Agnew, Christopher R.

2008-01-01

Little research has addressed age-gap romantic relationships (romantic involvements characterized by substantial age differences between partners). Drawing on evolutionary and socio-cultural perspectives, the present study examined normative beliefs and commitment processes among heterosexual women involved in age-gap and age-concordant…

Optimal Wavelengths Selection Using Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithm for Prediction of Firmness and Soluble Solids Content in Apples

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hyperspectral scattering is a promising technique for rapid and noninvasive measurement of multiple quality attributes of apple fruit. A hierarchical evolutionary algorithm (HEA) approach, in combination with subspace decomposition and partial least squares (PLS) regression, was proposed to select o...

External-environmental and internal-health early life predictors of adolescent development.

PubMed

Hartman, Sarah; Li, Zhi; Nettle, Daniel; Belsky, Jay

2017-12-01

A wealth of evidence documents associations between various aspects of the rearing environment and later development. Two evolutionary-inspired models advance explanations for why and how such early experiences shape later functioning: (a) the external-prediction model, which highlights the role of the early environment (e.g., parenting) in regulating children's development, and (b) the internal-prediction model, which emphasizes internal state (i.e., health) as the critical regulator. Thus, by using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the current project draws from both models by investigating whether the effect of the early environment on later adolescent functioning is subject to an indirect effect by internal-health variables. Results showed a significant indirect effect of internal health on the relation between the early environment and adolescent behavior. Specifically, early environmental adversity during the first 5 years of life predicted lower quality health during childhood, which then led to problematic adolescent functioning and earlier age of menarche for girls. In addition, for girls, early adversity predicted lower quality health that forecasted earlier age of menarche leading to increased adolescent risk taking. The discussion highlights the importance of integrating both internal and external models to further understand the developmental processes that effect adolescent behavior.

Controlled recovery of phylogenetic communities from an evolutionary model using a network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Arthur M. Y. R.; Vieira, André P.; Prado, Carmen P. C.; Andrade, Roberto F. S.

2016-04-01

This works reports the use of a complex network approach to produce a phylogenetic classification tree of a simple evolutionary model. This approach has already been used to treat proteomic data of actual extant organisms, but an investigation of its reliability to retrieve a traceable evolutionary history is missing. The used evolutionary model includes key ingredients for the emergence of groups of related organisms by differentiation through random mutations and population growth, but purposefully omits other realistic ingredients that are not strictly necessary to originate an evolutionary history. This choice causes the model to depend only on a small set of parameters, controlling the mutation probability and the population of different species. Our results indicate that for a set of parameter values, the phylogenetic classification produced by the used framework reproduces the actual evolutionary history with a very high average degree of accuracy. This includes parameter values where the species originated by the evolutionary dynamics have modular structures. In the more general context of community identification in complex networks, our model offers a simple setting for evaluating the effects, on the efficiency of community formation and identification, of the underlying dynamics generating the network itself.

Evolutionary rescue: linking theory for conservation and medicine.

PubMed

Alexander, Helen K; Martin, Guillaume; Martin, Oliver Y; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

2014-12-01

Evolutionary responses that rescue populations from extinction when drastic environmental changes occur can be friend or foe. The field of conservation biology is concerned with the survival of species in deteriorating global habitats. In medicine, in contrast, infected patients are treated with chemotherapeutic interventions, but drug resistance can compromise eradication of pathogens. These contrasting biological systems and goals have created two quite separate research communities, despite addressing the same central question of whether populations will decline to extinction or be rescued through evolution. We argue that closer integration of the two fields, especially of theoretical understanding, would yield new insights and accelerate progress on these applied problems. Here, we overview and link mathematical modelling approaches in these fields, suggest specific areas with potential for fruitful exchange, and discuss common ideas and issues for empirical testing and prediction.

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Evolutionary Self-Questioning Games with Local Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yong-Kui; Li, Zhi; Chen, Xiao-Jie; Wang, Long

2009-08-01

We investigate the evolutionary Prisoner's Dilemma and the Snowdrift Game on small-world networks in a realistic social context where individuals consider their local contributions to their group and update their strategies by self-questioning. An individual with introspection can determine whether its current strategy is superior by playing a virtual round of the game and its local contribution is defined as the sum of all the payoffs its neighbors collect against it. In our model, the performance of an individual is determined by both its payoff and local contribution through a linear combination. We demonstrate that the present mechanism can produce very robust cooperative behavior in both games. Furthermore, we provide theoretical analysis based on mean-field approximation, and find that the analytical predictions are qualitatively consistent with the simulation results.

Transferable Reactive Force Fields: Extensions of ReaxFF-lg to Nitromethane.

PubMed

Larentzos, James P; Rice, Betsy M

2017-03-09

Transferable ReaxFF-lg models of nitromethane that predict a variety of material properties over a wide range of thermodynamic states are obtained by screening a library of ∼6600 potentials that were previously optimized through the Multiple Objective Evolutionary Strategies (MOES) approach using a training set that included information for other energetic materials composed of carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen. Models that best match experimental nitromethane lattice constants at 4.2 K and 1 atm are evaluated for transferability to high-pressure states at room temperature and are shown to better predict various liquid- and solid-phase structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties as compared to the existing ReaxFF and ReaxFF-lg parametrizations. Although demonstrated for an energetic material, the library of ReaxFF-lg models is supplied to the scientific community to enable new research explorations of complex reactive phenomena in a variety of materials research applications.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution.

PubMed

Sandvik, Hanno; Barrett, Robert T; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Myksvoll, Mari S; Vikebø, Frode; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Reiertsen, Tone K; Skarðhamar, Jofrid; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Systad, Geir Helge

2016-05-13

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers.

Immediate survival focus: synthesizing life history theory and dual process models to explain substance use.

PubMed

Richardson, George B; Hardesty, Patrick

2012-01-01

Researchers have recently applied evolutionary life history theory to the understanding of behaviors often conceived of as prosocial or antisocial. In addition, researchers have applied cognitive science to the understanding of substance use and used dual process models, where explicit cognitive processes are modeled as relatively distinct from implicit cognitive processes, to explain and predict substance use behaviors. In this paper we synthesized these two theoretical perspectives to produce an adaptive and cognitive framework for explaining substance use. We contend that this framework provides new insights into the nature of substance use that may be valuable for both clinicians and researchers.

Sex and death: the effects of innate immune factors on the sexual reproduction of malaria parasites.

PubMed

Ramiro, Ricardo S; Alpedrinha, João; Carter, Lucy; Gardner, Andy; Reece, Sarah E

2011-03-01

Malaria parasites must undergo a round of sexual reproduction in the blood meal of a mosquito vector to be transmitted between hosts. Developing a transmission-blocking intervention to prevent parasites from mating is a major goal of biomedicine, but its effectiveness could be compromised if parasites can compensate by simply adjusting their sex allocation strategies. Recently, the application of evolutionary theory for sex allocation has been supported by experiments demonstrating that malaria parasites adjust their sex ratios in response to infection genetic diversity, precisely as predicted. Theory also predicts that parasites should adjust sex allocation in response to host immunity. Whilst data are supportive, the assumptions underlying this prediction - that host immune responses have differential effects on the mating ability of males and females - have not yet been tested. Here, we combine experimental work with theoretical models in order to investigate whether the development and fertility of male and female parasites is affected by innate immune factors and develop new theory to predict how parasites' sex allocation strategies should evolve in response to the observed effects. Specifically, we demonstrate that reactive nitrogen species impair gametogenesis of males only, but reduce the fertility of both male and female gametes. In contrast, tumour necrosis factor-α does not influence gametogenesis in either sex but impairs zygote development. Therefore, our experiments demonstrate that immune factors have complex effects on each sex, ranging from reducing the ability of gametocytes to develop into gametes, to affecting the viability of offspring. We incorporate these results into theory to predict how the evolutionary trajectories of parasite sex ratio strategies are shaped by sex differences in gamete production, fertility and offspring development. We show that medical interventions targeting offspring development are more likely to be 'evolution-proof' than interventions directed at killing males or females. Given the drive to develop medical interventions that interfere with parasite mating, our data and theoretical models have important implications.

Sex and Death: The Effects of Innate Immune Factors on the Sexual Reproduction of Malaria Parasites

PubMed Central

Ramiro, Ricardo S.; Alpedrinha, João; Carter, Lucy; Gardner, Andy; Reece, Sarah E.

2011-01-01

Malaria parasites must undergo a round of sexual reproduction in the blood meal of a mosquito vector to be transmitted between hosts. Developing a transmission-blocking intervention to prevent parasites from mating is a major goal of biomedicine, but its effectiveness could be compromised if parasites can compensate by simply adjusting their sex allocation strategies. Recently, the application of evolutionary theory for sex allocation has been supported by experiments demonstrating that malaria parasites adjust their sex ratios in response to infection genetic diversity, precisely as predicted. Theory also predicts that parasites should adjust sex allocation in response to host immunity. Whilst data are supportive, the assumptions underlying this prediction – that host immune responses have differential effects on the mating ability of males and females – have not yet been tested. Here, we combine experimental work with theoretical models in order to investigate whether the development and fertility of male and female parasites is affected by innate immune factors and develop new theory to predict how parasites' sex allocation strategies should evolve in response to the observed effects. Specifically, we demonstrate that reactive nitrogen species impair gametogenesis of males only, but reduce the fertility of both male and female gametes. In contrast, tumour necrosis factor-α does not influence gametogenesis in either sex but impairs zygote development. Therefore, our experiments demonstrate that immune factors have complex effects on each sex, ranging from reducing the ability of gametocytes to develop into gametes, to affecting the viability of offspring. We incorporate these results into theory to predict how the evolutionary trajectories of parasite sex ratio strategies are shaped by sex differences in gamete production, fertility and offspring development. We show that medical interventions targeting offspring development are more likely to be ‘evolution-proof’ than interventions directed at killing males or females. Given the drive to develop medical interventions that interfere with parasite mating, our data and theoretical models have important implications. PMID:21408620

YELLOW SUPERGIANTS IN THE ANDROMEDA GALAXY (M31)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drout, Maria R.; Massey, Philip; Meynet, Georges

2009-09-20

The yellow supergiant content of nearby galaxies can provide a critical test of stellar evolution theory, bridging the gap between the hot, massive stars and the cool red supergiants. But, this region of the color-magnitude diagram is dominated by foreground contamination, requiring membership to somehow be determined. Fortunately, the large negative systemic velocity of M31, coupled to its high rotation rate, provides the means for separating the contaminating foreground dwarfs from the bona fide yellow supergiants within M31. We obtained radial velocities of {approx}2900 individual targets within the correct color-magnitude range corresponding to masses of 12 M{sub sun} and higher.more » A comparison of these velocities to those expected from M31's rotation curve reveals 54 rank-1 (near certain) and 66 rank-2 (probable) yellow supergiant members, indicating a foreground contamination >= 96%. We expect some modest contamination from Milky Way halo giants among the remainder, particularly for the rank-2 candidates, and indeed follow-up spectroscopy of a small sample eliminates four rank 2's while confirming five others. We find excellent agreement between the location of yellow supergiants in the H-R diagram and that predicted by the latest Geneva evolutionary tracks that include rotation. However, the relative number of yellow supergiants seen as a function of mass varies from that predicted by the models by a factor of >10, in the sense that more high-mass yellow supergiants are predicted than those are actually observed. Comparing the total number (16) of >20 M{sub sun} yellow supergiants with the estimated number (24,800) of unevolved O stars indicates that the duration of the yellow supergiant phase is {approx}3000 years. This is consistent with what the 12 M{sub sun} and 15 M{sub sun} evolutionary tracks predict, but disagrees with the 20,000-80,000 year timescales predicted by the models for higher masses.« less

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment

PubMed Central

Rego-Costa, Artur; Débarre, Florence; Chevin, Luis-Miguel

2018-01-01

Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredictable. However, populations also evolve largely in response to external changing environments, and such environmental forcing is likely to influence the outcome of evolution in systems prone to chaos. We investigate how a changing environment causing oscillations of an optimal phenotype interacts with the internal dynamics of an eco-evolutionary system that would be chaotic in a constant environment. We show that strong environmental forcing can improve the predictability of evolution, by reducing the probability of chaos arising, and by dampening the magnitude of chaotic oscillations. In contrast, weak forcing can increase the probability of chaos, but it also causes evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely. Overall, our results indicate that, although chaos may occur in evolution, it does not necessarily undermine its predictability. PMID:29235104

Accounting for epistatic interactions improves the functional analysis of protein structures.

PubMed

Wilkins, Angela D; Venner, Eric; Marciano, David C; Erdin, Serkan; Atri, Benu; Lua, Rhonald C; Lichtarge, Olivier

2013-11-01

The constraints under which sequence, structure and function coevolve are not fully understood. Bringing this mutual relationship to light can reveal the molecular basis of binding, catalysis and allostery, thereby identifying function and rationally guiding protein redesign. Underlying these relationships are the epistatic interactions that occur when the consequences of a mutation to a protein are determined by the genetic background in which it occurs. Based on prior data, we hypothesize that epistatic forces operate most strongly between residues nearby in the structure, resulting in smooth evolutionary importance across the structure. We find that when residue scores of evolutionary importance are distributed smoothly between nearby residues, functional site prediction accuracy improves. Accordingly, we designed a novel measure of evolutionary importance that focuses on the interaction between pairs of structurally neighboring residues. This measure that we term pair-interaction Evolutionary Trace yields greater functional site overlap and better structure-based proteome-wide functional predictions. Our data show that the structural smoothness of evolutionary importance is a fundamental feature of the coevolution of sequence, structure and function. Mutations operate on individual residues, but selective pressure depends in part on the extent to which a mutation perturbs interactions with neighboring residues. In practice, this principle led us to redefine the importance of a residue in terms of the importance of its epistatic interactions with neighbors, yielding better annotation of functional residues, motivating experimental validation of a novel functional site in LexA and refining protein function prediction. lichtarge@bcm.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Longevity and ageing: appraising the evolutionary consequences of growing old

PubMed Central

Bonsall, Michael B

2005-01-01

Senescence or ageing is an increase in mortality and/or decline in fertility with increasing age. Evolutionary theories predict that ageing or longevity evolves in response to patterns of extrinsic mortality or intrinsic damage. If ageing is viewed as the outcome of the processes of behaviour, growth and reproduction then it should be possible to predict mortality rate. Recent developments have shown that it is now possible to integrate these ecological and physiological processes and predict the shape of mortality trajectories. By drawing on the key exciting developments in the cellular, physiological and ecological process of longevity the evolutionary consequences of ageing are reviewed. In presenting these ideas an evolutionary demographic framework is used to argue how trade-offs in life-history strategies are important in the maintenance of variation in longevity within and between species. Evolutionary processes associated with longevity have an important role in explaining levels of biological diversity and speciation. In particular, the effects of life-history trait trade-offs in maintaining and promoting species diversity are explored. Such trade-offs can alleviate the effects of intense competition between species and promote species coexistence and diversification. These results have important implications for understanding a number of core ecological processes such as how species are divided among niches, how closely related species co-occur and the rules by which species assemble into food-webs. Theoretical work reveals that the proximate physiological processes are as important as the ecological factors in explaining the variation in the evolution of longevity. Possible future research challenges integrating work on the evolution and mechanisms of growing old are briefly discussed. PMID:16553312

Accounting for epistatic interactions improves the functional analysis of protein structures

PubMed Central

Wilkins, Angela D.; Venner, Eric; Marciano, David C.; Erdin, Serkan; Atri, Benu; Lua, Rhonald C.; Lichtarge, Olivier

2013-01-01

Motivation: The constraints under which sequence, structure and function coevolve are not fully understood. Bringing this mutual relationship to light can reveal the molecular basis of binding, catalysis and allostery, thereby identifying function and rationally guiding protein redesign. Underlying these relationships are the epistatic interactions that occur when the consequences of a mutation to a protein are determined by the genetic background in which it occurs. Based on prior data, we hypothesize that epistatic forces operate most strongly between residues nearby in the structure, resulting in smooth evolutionary importance across the structure. Methods and Results: We find that when residue scores of evolutionary importance are distributed smoothly between nearby residues, functional site prediction accuracy improves. Accordingly, we designed a novel measure of evolutionary importance that focuses on the interaction between pairs of structurally neighboring residues. This measure that we term pair-interaction Evolutionary Trace yields greater functional site overlap and better structure-based proteome-wide functional predictions. Conclusions: Our data show that the structural smoothness of evolutionary importance is a fundamental feature of the coevolution of sequence, structure and function. Mutations operate on individual residues, but selective pressure depends in part on the extent to which a mutation perturbs interactions with neighboring residues. In practice, this principle led us to redefine the importance of a residue in terms of the importance of its epistatic interactions with neighbors, yielding better annotation of functional residues, motivating experimental validation of a novel functional site in LexA and refining protein function prediction. Contact: lichtarge@bcm.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24021383

PopCORN: Hunting down the differences between binary population synthesis codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toonen, S.; Claeys, J. S. W.; Mennekens, N.; Ruiter, A. J.

2014-02-01

Context. Binary population synthesis (BPS) modelling is a very effective tool to study the evolution and properties of various types of close binary systems. The uncertainty in the parameters of the model and their effect on a population can be tested in a statistical way, which then leads to a deeper understanding of the underlying (sometimes poorly understood) physical processes involved. Several BPS codes exist that have been developed with different philosophies and aims. Although BPS has been very successful for studies of many populations of binary stars, in the particular case of the study of the progenitors of supernovae Type Ia, the predicted rates and ZAMS progenitors vary substantially between different BPS codes. Aims: To understand the predictive power of BPS codes, we study the similarities and differences in the predictions of four different BPS codes for low- and intermediate-mass binaries. We investigate the differences in the characteristics of the predicted populations, and whether they are caused by different assumptions made in the BPS codes or by numerical effects, e.g. a lack of accuracy in BPS codes. Methods: We compare a large number of evolutionary sequences for binary stars, starting with the same initial conditions following the evolution until the first (and when applicable, the second) white dwarf (WD) is formed. To simplify the complex problem of comparing BPS codes that are based on many (often different) assumptions, we equalise the assumptions as much as possible to examine the inherent differences of the four BPS codes. Results: We find that the simulated populations are similar between the codes. Regarding the population of binaries with one WD, there is very good agreement between the physical characteristics, the evolutionary channels that lead to the birth of these systems, and their birthrates. Regarding the double WD population, there is a good agreement on which evolutionary channels exist to create double WDs and a rough agreement on the characteristics of the double WD population. Regarding which progenitor systems lead to a single and double WD system and which systems do not, the four codes agree well. Most importantly, we find that for these two populations, the differences in the predictions from the four codes are not due to numerical differences, but because of different inherent assumptions. We identify critical assumptions for BPS studies that need to be studied in more detail. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Evolutionary model selection and parameter estimation for protein-protein interaction network based on differential evolution algorithm

PubMed Central

Huang, Lei; Liao, Li; Wu, Cathy H.

2016-01-01

Revealing the underlying evolutionary mechanism plays an important role in understanding protein interaction networks in the cell. While many evolutionary models have been proposed, the problem about applying these models to real network data, especially for differentiating which model can better describe evolutionary process for the observed network urgently remains as a challenge. The traditional way is to use a model with presumed parameters to generate a network, and then evaluate the fitness by summary statistics, which however cannot capture the complete network structures information and estimate parameter distribution. In this work we developed a novel method based on Approximate Bayesian Computation and modified Differential Evolution (ABC-DEP) that is capable of conducting model selection and parameter estimation simultaneously and detecting the underlying evolutionary mechanisms more accurately. We tested our method for its power in differentiating models and estimating parameters on the simulated data and found significant improvement in performance benchmark, as compared with a previous method. We further applied our method to real data of protein interaction networks in human and yeast. Our results show Duplication Attachment model as the predominant evolutionary mechanism for human PPI networks and Scale-Free model as the predominant mechanism for yeast PPI networks. PMID:26357273

Beyond the pleistocene: using phylogeny and constraint to inform the evolutionary psychology of human mating.

PubMed

Eastwick, Paul W

2009-09-01

Evolutionary psychologists explore the adaptive function of traits and behaviors that characterize modern Homo sapiens. However, evolutionary psychologists have yet to incorporate the phylogenetic relationship between modern Homo sapiens and humans' hominid and pongid relatives (both living and extinct) into their theorizing. By considering the specific timing of evolutionary events and the role of evolutionary constraint, researchers using the phylogenetic approach can generate new predictions regarding mating phenomena and derive new explanations for existing evolutionary psychological findings. Especially useful is the concept of the adaptive workaround-an adaptation that manages the maladaptive elements of a pre-existing evolutionary constraint. The current review organizes 7 features of human mating into their phylogenetic context and presents evidence that 2 adaptive workarounds played a critical role as Homo sapiens's mating psychology evolved. These adaptive workarounds function in part to mute or refocus the effects of older, previously evolved adaptations and highlight the layered nature of humans' mating psychology. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Monogamy and high relatedness do not preferentially favor the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Nonacs, Peter

2011-03-04

Phylogenetic analyses strongly associate nonsocial ancestors of cooperatively-breeding or eusocial species with monogamy. Because monogamy creates high-relatedness family groups, kin selection has been concluded to drive the evolution of cooperative breeding (i.e., the monogamy hypothesis). Although kin selection is criticized as inappropriate for modeling and predicting the evolution of cooperation, there are no examples where specific inclusive fitness-based predictions are intrinsically wrong. The monogamy hypothesis may be the first case of such a flawed calculation. A simulation model mutated helping alleles into non-cooperative populations where females mated either once or multiply. Although multiple mating produces sibling broods of lower relatedness, it also increases the likelihood that one offspring will adopt a helper role. Examining this tradeoff showed that under a wide range of conditions polygamy, rather than monogamy, allowed helping to spread more rapidly through populations. Further simulations with mating strategies as heritable traits confirmed that multiple-mating is selectively advantageous. Although cooperation evolves similarly regardless of whether dependent young are close or more distant kin, it does not evolve if they are unrelated. The solitary ancestral species to cooperative breeders may have been predominantly monogamous, but it cannot be concluded that monogamy is a predisposing state for the evolution of helping behavior. Monogamy may simply be coincidental to other more important life history characteristics such as nest defense or sequential provisioning of offspring. The differing predictive outcome from a gene-based model also supports arguments that inclusive fitness formulations poorly model some evolutionary questions. Nevertheless, cooperation only evolves when benefits are provided for kin: helping alleles did not increase in frequency in the absence of potential gains in indirect fitness. The key question, therefore, is not whether kin selection occurs, but how best to elucidate the differing evolutionary advantages of genetic relatedness versus genetic diversity.

Monogamy and high relatedness do not preferentially favor the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Phylogenetic analyses strongly associate nonsocial ancestors of cooperatively-breeding or eusocial species with monogamy. Because monogamy creates high-relatedness family groups, kin selection has been concluded to drive the evolution of cooperative breeding (i.e., the monogamy hypothesis). Although kin selection is criticized as inappropriate for modeling and predicting the evolution of cooperation, there are no examples where specific inclusive fitness-based predictions are intrinsically wrong. The monogamy hypothesis may be the first case of such a flawed calculation. Results A simulation model mutated helping alleles into non-cooperative populations where females mated either once or multiply. Although multiple mating produces sibling broods of lower relatedness, it also increases the likelihood that one offspring will adopt a helper role. Examining this tradeoff showed that under a wide range of conditions polygamy, rather than monogamy, allowed helping to spread more rapidly through populations. Further simulations with mating strategies as heritable traits confirmed that multiple-mating is selectively advantageous. Although cooperation evolves similarly regardless of whether dependent young are close or more distant kin, it does not evolve if they are unrelated. Conclusions The solitary ancestral species to cooperative breeders may have been predominantly monogamous, but it cannot be concluded that monogamy is a predisposing state for the evolution of helping behavior. Monogamy may simply be coincidental to other more important life history characteristics such as nest defense or sequential provisioning of offspring. The differing predictive outcome from a gene-based model also supports arguments that inclusive fitness formulations poorly model some evolutionary questions. Nevertheless, cooperation only evolves when benefits are provided for kin: helping alleles did not increase in frequency in the absence of potential gains in indirect fitness. The key question, therefore, is not whether kin selection occurs, but how best to elucidate the differing evolutionary advantages of genetic relatedness versus genetic diversity. PMID:21375755

New generation of elastic network models.

PubMed

López-Blanco, José Ramón; Chacón, Pablo

2016-04-01

The intrinsic flexibility of proteins and nucleic acids can be grasped from remarkably simple mechanical models of particles connected by springs. In recent decades, Elastic Network Models (ENMs) combined with Normal Model Analysis widely confirmed their ability to predict biologically relevant motions of biomolecules and soon became a popular methodology to reveal large-scale dynamics in multiple structural biology scenarios. The simplicity, robustness, low computational cost, and relatively high accuracy are the reasons behind the success of ENMs. This review focuses on recent advances in the development and application of ENMs, paying particular attention to combinations with experimental data. Successful application scenarios include large macromolecular machines, structural refinement, docking, and evolutionary conservation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Analysis and modelling of safety culture in a Mexican hospital by Markov chains].

PubMed

Velázquez-Martínez, J D; Cruz-Suárez, H; Santos-Reyes, J

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to analyse and model the safety culture with Markov chains, as well as predicting and/or prioritizing over time the evolutionary behaviour of the safety culture of the health's staff in one Mexican hospital. The Markov chain theory has been employed in the analysis, and the input data has been obtained from a previous study based on the Safety Attitude Questionnaire (CAS-MX-II), by considering the following 6 dimensions: safety climate, teamwork, job satisfaction, recognition of stress, perception of management, and work environment. The results highlighted the predictions and/or prioritisation of the approximate time for the possible integration into the evolutionary behaviour of the safety culture as regards the "slightly agree" (Likert scale) for: safety climate (in 12 years; 24.13%); teamwork (8 years; 34.61%); job satisfaction (11 years; 52.41%); recognition of the level of stress (8 years; 19.35%); and perception of the direction (22 years; 27.87%). The work environment dimension was unable to determine the behaviour of staff information, i.e. no information cultural roots were obtained. In general, it has been shown that there are weaknesses in the safety culture of the hospital, which is an opportunity to suggest changes to the mandatory policies in order to strengthen it. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Probing binding hot spots at protein-RNA recognition sites.

PubMed

Barik, Amita; Nithin, Chandran; Karampudi, Naga Bhushana Rao; Mukherjee, Sunandan; Bahadur, Ranjit Prasad

2016-01-29

We use evolutionary conservation derived from structure alignment of polypeptide sequences along with structural and physicochemical attributes of protein-RNA interfaces to probe the binding hot spots at protein-RNA recognition sites. We find that the degree of conservation varies across the RNA binding proteins; some evolve rapidly compared to others. Additionally, irrespective of the structural class of the complexes, residues at the RNA binding sites are evolutionary better conserved than those at the solvent exposed surfaces. For recognitions involving duplex RNA, residues interacting with the major groove are better conserved than those interacting with the minor groove. We identify multi-interface residues participating simultaneously in protein-protein and protein-RNA interfaces in complexes where more than one polypeptide is involved in RNA recognition, and show that they are better conserved compared to any other RNA binding residues. We find that the residues at water preservation site are better conserved than those at hydrated or at dehydrated sites. Finally, we develop a Random Forests model using structural and physicochemical attributes for predicting binding hot spots. The model accurately predicts 80% of the instances of experimental ΔΔG values in a particular class, and provides a stepping-stone towards the engineering of protein-RNA recognition sites with desired affinity. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

An evolutionary attractor model for sapwood cross section in relation to leaf area.

PubMed

Westoby, Mark; Cornwell, William K; Falster, Daniel S

2012-06-21

Sapwood cross-sectional area per unit leaf area (SA:LA) is an influential trait that plants coordinate with physical environment and with other traits. We develop theory for SA:LA and also for root surface area per leaf area (RA:LA) on the premise that plants maximizing the surplus of revenue over costs should have competitive advantage. SA:LA is predicted to increase in water-relations environments that reduce photosynthetic revenue, including low soil water potential, high water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and low atmospheric CO(2). Because sapwood has costs, SA:LA adjustment does not completely offset difficult water relations. Where sapwood costs are large, as in tall plants, optimal SA:LA may actually decline with (say) high VPD. Large soil-to-root resistance caps the benefits that can be obtained from increasing SA:LA. Where a plant can adjust water-absorbing surface area of root per leaf area (RA:LA) as well as SA:LA, optimal RA:SA is not affected by VPD, CO(2) or plant height. If selection favours increased height more so than increased revenue-minus-cost, then height is predicted to rise substantially under improved water-relations environments such as high-CO(2) atmospheres. Evolutionary-attractor theory for SA:LA and RA:LA complements models that take whole-plant conductivity per leaf area as a parameter. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-organised criticality in the evolution of a thermodynamic model of rodent thermoregulatory huddling

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A thermodynamic model of thermoregulatory huddling interactions between endotherms is developed. The model is presented as a Monte Carlo algorithm in which animals are iteratively exchanged between groups, with a probability of exchanging groups defined in terms of the temperature of the environment and the body temperatures of the animals. The temperature-dependent exchange of animals between groups is shown to reproduce a second-order critical phase transition, i.e., a smooth switch to huddling when the environment gets colder, as measured in recent experiments. A peak in the rate at which group sizes change, referred to as pup flow, is predicted at the critical temperature of the phase transition, consistent with a thermodynamic description of huddling, and with a description of the huddle as a self-organising system. The model was subjected to a simple evolutionary procedure, by iteratively substituting the physiologies of individuals that fail to balance the costs of thermoregulation (by huddling in groups) with the costs of thermogenesis (by contributing heat). The resulting tension between cooperative and competitive interactions was found to generate a phenomenon called self-organised criticality, as evidenced by the emergence of avalanches in fitness that propagate across many generations. The emergence of avalanches reveals how huddling can introduce correlations in fitness between individuals and thereby constrain evolutionary dynamics. Finally, a full agent-based model of huddling interactions is also shown to generate criticality when subjected to the same evolutionary pressures. The agent-based model is related to the Monte Carlo model in the way that a Vicsek model is related to an Ising model in statistical physics. Huddling therefore presents an opportunity to use thermodynamic theory to study an emergent adaptive animal behaviour. In more general terms, huddling is proposed as an ideal system for investigating the interaction between self-organisation and natural selection empirically. PMID:28141809

Protein 3D Structure Computed from Evolutionary Sequence Variation

PubMed Central

Sheridan, Robert; Hopf, Thomas A.; Pagnani, Andrea; Zecchina, Riccardo; Sander, Chris

2011-01-01

The evolutionary trajectory of a protein through sequence space is constrained by its function. Collections of sequence homologs record the outcomes of millions of evolutionary experiments in which the protein evolves according to these constraints. Deciphering the evolutionary record held in these sequences and exploiting it for predictive and engineering purposes presents a formidable challenge. The potential benefit of solving this challenge is amplified by the advent of inexpensive high-throughput genomic sequencing. In this paper we ask whether we can infer evolutionary constraints from a set of sequence homologs of a protein. The challenge is to distinguish true co-evolution couplings from the noisy set of observed correlations. We address this challenge using a maximum entropy model of the protein sequence, constrained by the statistics of the multiple sequence alignment, to infer residue pair couplings. Surprisingly, we find that the strength of these inferred couplings is an excellent predictor of residue-residue proximity in folded structures. Indeed, the top-scoring residue couplings are sufficiently accurate and well-distributed to define the 3D protein fold with remarkable accuracy. We quantify this observation by computing, from sequence alone, all-atom 3D structures of fifteen test proteins from different fold classes, ranging in size from 50 to 260 residues., including a G-protein coupled receptor. These blinded inferences are de novo, i.e., they do not use homology modeling or sequence-similar fragments from known structures. The co-evolution signals provide sufficient information to determine accurate 3D protein structure to 2.7–4.8 Å Cα-RMSD error relative to the observed structure, over at least two-thirds of the protein (method called EVfold, details at http://EVfold.org). This discovery provides insight into essential interactions constraining protein evolution and will facilitate a comprehensive survey of the universe of protein structures, new strategies in protein and drug design, and the identification of functional genetic variants in normal and disease genomes. PMID:22163331

Social traits, social networks and evolutionary biology.

PubMed

Fisher, D N; McAdam, A G

2017-12-01

The social environment is both an important agent of selection for most organisms, and an emergent property of their interactions. As an aggregation of interactions among members of a population, the social environment is a product of many sets of relationships and so can be represented as a network or matrix. Social network analysis in animals has focused on why these networks possess the structure they do, and whether individuals' network traits, representing some aspect of their social phenotype, relate to their fitness. Meanwhile, quantitative geneticists have demonstrated that traits expressed in a social context can depend on the phenotypes and genotypes of interacting partners, leading to influences of the social environment on the traits and fitness of individuals and the evolutionary trajectories of populations. Therefore, both fields are investigating similar topics, yet have arrived at these points relatively independently. We review how these approaches are diverged, and yet how they retain clear parallelism and so strong potential for complementarity. This demonstrates that, despite separate bodies of theory, advances in one might inform the other. Techniques in network analysis for quantifying social phenotypes, and for identifying community structure, should be useful for those studying the relationship between individual behaviour and group-level phenotypes. Entering social association matrices into quantitative genetic models may also reduce bias in heritability estimates, and allow the estimation of the influence of social connectedness on trait expression. Current methods for measuring natural selection in a social context explicitly account for the fact that a trait is not necessarily the property of a single individual, something the network approaches have not yet considered when relating network metrics to individual fitness. Harnessing evolutionary models that consider traits affected by genes in other individuals (i.e. indirect genetic effects) provides the potential to understand how entire networks of social interactions in populations influence phenotypes and predict how these traits may evolve. By theoretical integration of social network analysis and quantitative genetics, we hope to identify areas of compatibility and incompatibility and to direct research efforts towards the most promising areas. Continuing this synthesis could provide important insights into the evolution of traits expressed in a social context and the evolutionary consequences of complex and nuanced social phenotypes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The Genetic Precursors and the Advantageous and Disadvantageous Sequelae of Inhibited Temperament: An Evolutionary Perspective

PubMed Central

Davies, Patrick T.; Cicchetti, Dante; and, Rochelle F. Hentges; Sturge-Apple, Melissa L.

2014-01-01

Guided by evolutionary game theory (Korte, Koolhaas, Wingfield, & McEwen, 2005), this study aimed to identify the genetic precursors and the psychosocial sequelae of inhibited temperament in a sociodemographically disadvantaged and racially diverse sample of 201 two-year-old children who experienced elevated levels of domestic violence. Using a multi-method, prospective design across three annual measurement occasions, SEM analyses indicated that trained observer ratings of inhibited temperament at age two were uniquely predicted by polymorphisms in dopamine and serotonin transporter genes. Children's inhibited temperament, in turn, indirectly predicted decreases in their externalizing problems at age four through its association with greater behavioral flexibility at three years of age. Results highlight the value of integrating evolutionary and developmental conceptualizations in more comprehensively charting the developmental cascades of inhibited temperament. PMID:23527493

Visual modelling suggests a weak relationship between the evolution of ultraviolet vision and plumage coloration in birds.

PubMed

Lind, O; Delhey, K

2015-03-01

Birds have sophisticated colour vision mediated by four cone types that cover a wide visual spectrum including ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths. Many birds have modest UV sensitivity provided by violet-sensitive (VS) cones with sensitivity maxima between 400 and 425 nm. However, some birds have evolved higher UV sensitivity and a larger visual spectrum given by UV-sensitive (UVS) cones maximally sensitive at 360-370 nm. The reasons for VS-UVS transitions and their relationship to visual ecology remain unclear. It has been hypothesized that the evolution of UVS-cone vision is linked to plumage colours so that visual sensitivity and feather coloration are 'matched'. This leads to the specific prediction that UVS-cone vision enhances the discrimination of plumage colours of UVS birds while such an advantage is absent or less pronounced for VS-bird coloration. We test this hypothesis using knowledge of the complex distribution of UVS cones among birds combined with mathematical modelling of colour discrimination during different viewing conditions. We find no support for the hypothesis, which, combined with previous studies, suggests only a weak relationship between UVS-cone vision and plumage colour evolution. Instead, we suggest that UVS-cone vision generally favours colour discrimination, which creates a nonspecific selection pressure for the evolution of UVS cones. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Diversity Dynamics in Nymphalidae Butterflies: Effect of Phylogenetic Uncertainty on Diversification Rate Shift Estimates

PubMed Central

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution. PMID:25830910

Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates.

PubMed

Peña, Carlos; Espeland, Marianne

2015-01-01

The species rich butterfly family Nymphalidae has been used to study evolutionary interactions between plants and insects. Theories of insect-hostplant dynamics predict accelerated diversification due to key innovations. In evolutionary biology, analysis of maximum credibility trees in the software MEDUSA (modelling evolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) is a popular method for estimation of shifts in diversification rates. We investigated whether phylogenetic uncertainty can produce different results by extending the method across a random sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian run. Using the MultiMEDUSA approach, we found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatly affects diversification rate estimates. Different trees produced diversification rates ranging from high values to almost zero for the same clade, and both significant rate increase and decrease in some clades. Only four out of 18 significant shifts found on the maximum clade credibility tree were consistent across most of the sampled trees. Among these, we found accelerated diversification for Ithomiini butterflies. We used the binary speciation and extinction model (BiSSE) and found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae is correlated with increased net diversification rates in Ithomiini, congruent with the diffuse cospeciation hypothesis. Our results show that taking phylogenetic uncertainty into account when estimating net diversification rate shifts is of great importance, as very different results can be obtained when using the maximum clade credibility tree and other trees from the posterior distribution.

Unexpected Nongenetic Individual Heterogeneity and Trait Covariance in Daphnia and Its Consequences for Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics.

PubMed

Cressler, Clayton E; Bengtson, Stefan; Nelson, William A

2017-07-01

Individual differences in genetics, age, or environment can cause tremendous differences in individual life-history traits. This individual heterogeneity generates demographic heterogeneity at the population level, which is predicted to have a strong impact on both ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, we know surprisingly little about the sources of individual heterogeneity for particular taxa or how different sources scale up to impact ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here we experimentally study the individual heterogeneity that emerges from both genetic and nongenetic sources in a species of freshwater zooplankton across a large gradient of food quality. Despite the tight control of environment, we still find that the variation from nongenetic sources is greater than that from genetic sources over a wide range of food quality and that this variation has strong positive covariance between growth and reproduction. We evaluate the general consequences of genetic and nongenetic covariance for ecological and evolutionary dynamics theoretically and find that increasing nongenetic variation slows evolution independent of the correlation in heritable life-history traits but that the impact on ecological dynamics depends on both nongenetic and genetic covariance. Our results demonstrate that variation in the relative magnitude of nongenetic versus genetic sources of variation impacts the predicted ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Research traditions and evolutionary explanations in medicine.

PubMed

Méthot, Pierre-Olivier

2011-02-01

In this article, I argue that distinguishing 'evolutionary' from 'Darwinian' medicine will help us assess the variety of roles that evolutionary explanations can play in a number of medical contexts. Because the boundaries of evolutionary and Darwinian medicine overlap to some extent, however, they are best described as distinct 'research traditions' rather than as competing paradigms. But while evolutionary medicine does not stand out as a new scientific field of its own, Darwinian medicine is united by a number of distinctive theoretical and methodological claims. For example, evolutionary medicine and Darwinian medicine can be distinguished with respect to the styles of evolutionary explanations they employ. While the former primarily involves 'forward looking' explanations, the latter depends mostly on 'backward looking' explanations. A forward looking explanation tries to predict the effects of ongoing evolutionary processes on human health and disease in contemporary environments (e.g., hospitals). In contrast, a backward looking explanation typically applies evolutionary principles from the vantage point of humans' distant biological past in order to assess present states of health and disease. Both approaches, however, are concerned with the prevention and control of human diseases. In conclusion, I raise some concerns about the claim that 'nothing in medicine makes sense except in the light of evolution'.

Deontic Reasoning with Emotional Content: Evolutionary Psychology or Decision Theory?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perham, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

2005-01-01

Three experiments investigated the contrasting predictions of the evolutionary and decision-theoretic approaches to deontic reasoning. Two experiments embedded a hazard management (HM) rule in a social contract scenario that should lead to competition between innate modules. A 3rd experiment used a pure HM task. Threatening material was also…

Finding a common path: predicting gene function using inferred evolutionary trees.

PubMed

Reynolds, Kimberly A

2014-07-14

Reporting in Cell, Li and colleagues (2014) describe an innovative method to functionally classify genes using evolutionary information. This approach demonstrates broad utility for eukaryotic gene annotation and suggests an intriguing new decomposition of pathways and complexes into evolutionarily conserved modules. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating natural selection in landscape genetics

Treesearch

E. L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman; N. Johnson

2012-01-01

Linking landscape effects to key evolutionary processes through individual organism movement and natural selection is essential to provide a foundation for evolutionary landscape genetics. Of particular importance is determining how spatially- explicit, individual-based models differ from classic population genetics and evolutionary ecology models based on ideal...

Evolution: like any other science it is predictable.

PubMed

Morris, Simon Conway

2010-01-12

Evolutionary biology rejoices in the diversity of life, but this comes at a cost: other than working in the common framework of neo-Darwinian evolution, specialists in, for example, diatoms and mammals have little to say to each other. Accordingly, their research tends to track the particularities and peculiarities of a given group and seldom enquires whether there are any wider or deeper sets of explanations. Here, I present evidence in support of the heterodox idea that evolution might look to a general theory that does more than serve as a tautology ('evolution explains evolution'). Specifically, I argue that far from its myriad of products being fortuitous and accidental, evolution is remarkably predictable. Thus, I urge a move away from the continuing obsession with Darwinian mechanisms, which are entirely uncontroversial. Rather, I emphasize why we should seek explanations for ubiquitous evolutionary convergence, as well as the emergence of complex integrated systems. At present, evolutionary theory seems to be akin to nineteenth-century physics, blissfully unaware of the imminent arrival of quantum mechanics and general relativity. Physics had its Newton, biology its Darwin: evolutionary biology now awaits its Einstein.

Evolution: like any other science it is predictable

PubMed Central

Conway Morris, Simon

2010-01-01

Evolutionary biology rejoices in the diversity of life, but this comes at a cost: other than working in the common framework of neo-Darwinian evolution, specialists in, for example, diatoms and mammals have little to say to each other. Accordingly, their research tends to track the particularities and peculiarities of a given group and seldom enquires whether there are any wider or deeper sets of explanations. Here, I present evidence in support of the heterodox idea that evolution might look to a general theory that does more than serve as a tautology (‘evolution explains evolution’). Specifically, I argue that far from its myriad of products being fortuitous and accidental, evolution is remarkably predictable. Thus, I urge a move away from the continuing obsession with Darwinian mechanisms, which are entirely uncontroversial. Rather, I emphasize why we should seek explanations for ubiquitous evolutionary convergence, as well as the emergence of complex integrated systems. At present, evolutionary theory seems to be akin to nineteenth-century physics, blissfully unaware of the imminent arrival of quantum mechanics and general relativity. Physics had its Newton, biology its Darwin: evolutionary biology now awaits its Einstein. PMID:20008391

Evaluation of Generation Alternation Models in Evolutionary Robotics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oiso, Masashi; Matsumura, Yoshiyuki; Yasuda, Toshiyuki; Ohkura, Kazuhiro

For efficient implementation of Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) to a desktop grid computing environment, we propose a new generation alternation model called Grid-Oriented-Deletion (GOD) based on comparison with the conventional techniques. In previous research, generation alternation models are generally evaluated by using test functions. However, their exploration performance on the real problems such as Evolutionary Robotics (ER) has not been made very clear yet. Therefore we investigate the relationship between the exploration performance of EA on an ER problem and its generation alternation model. We applied four generation alternation models to the Evolutionary Multi-Robotics (EMR), which is the package-pushing problem to investigate their exploration performance. The results show that GOD is more effective than the other conventional models.

Ecological theatre and the evolutionary game: how environmental and demographic factors determine payoffs in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, K; Broom, M

2013-10-01

In the standard approach to evolutionary games and replicator dynamics, differences in fitness can be interpreted as an excess from the mean Malthusian growth rate in the population. In the underlying reasoning, related to an analysis of "costs" and "benefits", there is a silent assumption that fitness can be described in some type of units. However, in most cases these units of measure are not explicitly specified. Then the question arises: are these theories testable? How can we measure "benefit" or "cost"? A natural language, useful for describing and justifying comparisons of strategic "cost" versus "benefits", is the terminology of demography, because the basic events that shape the outcome of natural selection are births and deaths. In this paper, we present the consequences of an explicit analysis of births and deaths in an evolutionary game theoretic framework. We will investigate different types of mortality pressures, their combinations and the possibility of trade-offs between mortality and fertility. We will show that within this new approach it is possible to model how strictly ecological factors such as density dependence and additive background fitness, which seem neutral in classical theory, can affect the outcomes of the game. We consider the example of the Hawk-Dove game, and show that when reformulated in terms of our new approach new details and new biological predictions are produced.

A test of evolutionary policing theory with data from human societies.

PubMed

Kümmerli, Rolf

2011-01-01

In social groups where relatedness among interacting individuals is low, cooperation can often only be maintained through mechanisms that repress competition among group members. Repression-of-competition mechanisms, such as policing and punishment, seem to be of particular importance in human societies, where cooperative interactions often occur among unrelated individuals. In line with this view, economic games have shown that the ability to punish defectors enforces cooperation among humans. Here, I examine a real-world example of a repression-of-competition system, the police institutions common to modern human societies. Specifically, I test evolutionary policing theory by comparing data on policing effort, per capita crime rate, and similarity (used as a proxy for genetic relatedness) among citizens across the 26 cantons of Switzerland. This comparison revealed full support for all three predictions of evolutionary policing theory. First, when controlling for policing efforts, crime rate correlated negatively with the similarity among citizens. This is in line with the prediction that high similarity results in higher levels of cooperative self-restraint (i.e. lower crime rates) because it aligns the interests of individuals. Second, policing effort correlated negatively with the similarity among citizens, supporting the prediction that more policing is required to enforce cooperation in low-similarity societies, where individuals' interests diverge most. Third, increased policing efforts were associated with reductions in crime rates, indicating that policing indeed enforces cooperation. These analyses strongly indicate that humans respond to cues of their social environment and adjust cheating and policing behaviour as predicted by evolutionary policing theory.

A Test of Evolutionary Policing Theory with Data from Human Societies

PubMed Central

Kümmerli, Rolf

2011-01-01

In social groups where relatedness among interacting individuals is low, cooperation can often only be maintained through mechanisms that repress competition among group members. Repression-of-competition mechanisms, such as policing and punishment, seem to be of particular importance in human societies, where cooperative interactions often occur among unrelated individuals. In line with this view, economic games have shown that the ability to punish defectors enforces cooperation among humans. Here, I examine a real-world example of a repression-of-competition system, the police institutions common to modern human societies. Specifically, I test evolutionary policing theory by comparing data on policing effort, per capita crime rate, and similarity (used as a proxy for genetic relatedness) among citizens across the 26 cantons of Switzerland. This comparison revealed full support for all three predictions of evolutionary policing theory. First, when controlling for policing efforts, crime rate correlated negatively with the similarity among citizens. This is in line with the prediction that high similarity results in higher levels of cooperative self-restraint (i.e. lower crime rates) because it aligns the interests of individuals. Second, policing effort correlated negatively with the similarity among citizens, supporting the prediction that more policing is required to enforce cooperation in low-similarity societies, where individuals' interests diverge most. Third, increased policing efforts were associated with reductions in crime rates, indicating that policing indeed enforces cooperation. These analyses strongly indicate that humans respond to cues of their social environment and adjust cheating and policing behaviour as predicted by evolutionary policing theory. PMID:21909429

BEYOND THE MAIN SEQUENCE: TESTING THE ACCURACY OF STELLAR MASSES PREDICTED BY THE PARSEC EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghezzi, Luan; Johnson, John Asher, E-mail: lghezzi@cfa.harvard.edu

2015-10-20

Characterizing the physical properties of exoplanets and understanding their formation and orbital evolution requires precise and accurate knowledge of their host stars. Accurately measuring stellar masses is particularly important because they likely influence planet occurrence and the architectures of planetary systems. Single main-sequence stars typically have masses estimated from evolutionary tracks, which generally provide accurate results due to their extensive empirical calibration. However, the validity of this method for subgiants and giants has been called into question by recent studies, with suggestions that the masses of these evolved stars could have been overestimated. We investigate these concerns using a samplemore » of 59 benchmark evolved stars with model-independent masses (from binary systems or asteroseismology) obtained from the literature. We find very good agreement between these benchmark masses and the ones estimated using evolutionary tracks. The average fractional difference in the mass interval ∼0.7–4.5 M{sub ⊙} is consistent with zero (−1.30 ± 2.42%), with no significant trends in the residuals relative to the input parameters. A good agreement between model-dependent and -independent radii (−4.81 ± 1.32%) and surface gravities (0.71 ± 0.51%) is also found. The consistency between independently determined ages for members of binary systems adds further support for the accuracy of the method employed to derive the stellar masses. Taken together, our results indicate that determination of masses of evolved stars using grids of evolutionary tracks is not significantly affected by systematic errors, and is thus valid for estimating the masses of isolated stars beyond the main sequence.« less

Flower color as a model system for studies of plant evo-devo.

PubMed

Sobel, James M; Streisfeld, Matthew A

2013-01-01

Even though pigmentation traits have had substantial impacts on the field of animal evolutionary developmental biology, they have played only relatively minor roles in plant evo-devo. This is surprising given the often direct connection between flower color and fitness variation mediated through the effects of pollinators. At the same time, ecological and evolutionary genetic studies have utilized the molecular resources available for the anthocyanin pathway to generate several examples of the molecular basis of putatively adaptive transitions in flower color. Despite this opportunity to synthesize experimental approaches in ecology, evolution, and developmental biology, the investigation of many fundamental questions in evo-devo using this powerful model is only at its earliest stages. For example, a long-standing question is whether predictable genetic changes accompany the repeated evolution of a trait. Due to the conserved nature of the biochemical and regulatory control of anthocyanin biosynthesis, it has become possible to determine whether, and under what circumstances, different types of mutations responsible for flower color variation are preferentially targeted by natural selection. In addition, because plants use anthocyanin and related compounds in vegetative tissue for other important physiological functions, the identification of naturally occurring transitions from unpigmented to pigmented flowers provides the opportunity to examine the mechanisms by which regulatory networks are co-opted into new developmental domains. Here, we review what is known about the ecological and molecular basis of anthocyanic flower color transitions in natural systems, focusing on the evolutionary and developmental features involved. In doing so, we provide suggestions for future work on this trait and suggest that there is still much to be learned from the evolutionary development of flower color transitions in nature.

The relative importance of regional, local, and evolutionary factors structuring cryptobenthic coral-reef assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadia, Gabby N.; Tornabene, Luke; Smith, David J.; Pezold, Frank L.

2018-03-01

Factors shaping coral-reef fish species assemblages can operate over a wide range of spatial scales (local versus regional) and across both proximate and evolutionary time. Niche theory and neutral theory provide frameworks for testing assumptions and generating insights about the importance of local versus regional processes. Niche theory postulates that species assemblages are an outcome of evolutionary processes at regional scales followed by local-scale interactions, whereas neutral theory presumes that species assemblages are formed by largely random processes drawing from regional species pools. Indo-Pacific cryptobenthic coral-reef fishes are highly evolved, ecologically diverse, temporally responsive, and situated on a natural longitudinal diversity gradient, making them an ideal group for testing predictions from niche and neutral theories and effects of regional and local processes on species assemblages. Using a combination of ecological metrics (fish density, diversity, assemblage composition) and evolutionary analyses (testing for phylogenetic niche conservatism), we demonstrate that the structure of cryptobenthic fish assemblages can be explained by a mixture of regional factors, such as the size of regional species pools and broad-scale barriers to gene flow/drivers of speciation, coupled with local-scale factors, such as the relative abundance of specific microhabitat types. Furthermore, species of cryptobenthic fishes have distinct microhabitat associations that drive significant differences in assemblage community structure between microhabitat types, and these distinct microhabitat associations are phylogenetically conserved over evolutionary timescales. The implied differential fitness of cryptobenthic fishes across varied microhabitats and the conserved nature of their ecology are consistent with predictions from niche theory. Neutral theory predictions may still hold true for early life-history stages, where stochastic factors may be more important in explaining recruitment. Overall, through integration of ecological and evolutionary techniques, and using multiple spatial scales, our study offers a unique perspective on factors determining coral-reef fish assemblages.

Effect of Evolutionary Anisotropy on Earing Prediction in Cylindrical Cup Drawing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H. J.; Lee, K. J.; Choi, Y.; Bae, G.; Ahn, D.-C.; Lee, M.-G.

2017-05-01

The formability of sheet metals is associated with their planar anisotropy, and finite element simulations have been applied to the sheet metal-forming process by describing the anisotropic behaviors using yield functions and hardening models. In this study, the evaluation of anisotropic constitutive models was performed based on the non-uniform height profile or earing in circular cylindrical cup drawing. Two yield functions, a quadratic Hill1948 and a non-quadratic Yld2000-2d model, were used under non-associated and associated flow rules, respectively, to simultaneously capture directional differences in yield stress and r value. The effect of the evolution of anisotropy on the earing prediction was also investigated by employing simplified equivalent plastic strain rate-dependent anisotropic coefficients. The computational results were in good agreement with experiments when the proper choice of the yield function and flow rule, which predicts the planar anisotropy, was made. Moreover, the accuracy of the earing profile could be significantly enhanced if the evolution of anisotropy between uniaxial and biaxial stress states was additionally considered.

A Computational Model for Predicting RNase H Domain of Retrovirus.

PubMed

Wu, Sijia; Zhang, Xinman; Han, Jiuqiang

2016-01-01

RNase H (RNH) is a pivotal domain in retrovirus to cleave the DNA-RNA hybrid for continuing retroviral replication. The crucial role indicates that RNH is a promising drug target for therapeutic intervention. However, annotated RNHs in UniProtKB database have still been insufficient for a good understanding of their statistical characteristics so far. In this work, a computational RNH model was proposed to annotate new putative RNHs (np-RNHs) in the retroviruses. It basically predicts RNH domains through recognizing their start and end sites separately with SVM method. The classification accuracy rates are 100%, 99.01% and 97.52% respectively corresponding to jack-knife, 10-fold cross-validation and 5-fold cross-validation test. Subsequently, this model discovered 14,033 np-RNHs after scanning sequences without RNH annotations. All these predicted np-RNHs and annotated RNHs were employed to analyze the length, hydrophobicity and evolutionary relationship of RNH domains. They are all related to retroviral genera, which validates the classification of retroviruses to a certain degree. In the end, a software tool was designed for the application of our prediction model. The software together with datasets involved in this paper can be available for free download at https://sourceforge.net/projects/rhtool/files/?source=navbar.