REACTOR - a Concept for establishing a System-of-Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haener, Rainer; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

REACTOR is a working title for activities implementing reliable, emergent, adaptive, and concurrent collaboration on the basis of transactional object repositories. It aims at establishing federations of autonomous yet interoperable systems (Systems-of-Systems), which are able to expose emergent behaviour. Following the principles of event-driven service-oriented architectures (SOA 2.0), REACTOR enables adaptive re-organisation by dynamic delegation of responsibilities and novel yet coherent monitoring strategies by combining information from different domains. Thus it allows collaborative decision-processes across system, discipline, and administrative boundaries. Interoperability is based on two approaches that implement interconnection and communication between existing heterogeneous infrastructures and information systems: Coordinated (orchestration-based) communication and publish/subscribe (choreography-based) communication. Choreography-based communication ensures the autonomy of the participating systems to the highest possible degree but requires the implementation of adapters, which provide functional access to information (publishing/consuming events) via a Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Any interconnection of the systems (composition of service and message cascades) is established on the basis of global conversations that are enacted by choreographies specifying the expected behaviour of the participating systems with respect to agreed Service Level Agreements (SLA) required by e.g. national authorities. The specification of conversations, maintained in commonly available repositories also enables the utilisation of systems for purposes (evolving) other than initially intended. Orchestration-based communication additionally requires a central component that controls the information transfer via service requests or event processing and also takes responsibility of managing business processes. Commonly available transactional object repositories are well suited to establish brokers, which mediate metadata and semantic information about the resources of all involved systems. This concept has been developed within the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) on the basis of semantic registries describing all facets of events and services utilisable for crisis management systems. The implementation utilises an operative infrastructure including an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB), adapters to proprietary sensor systems, a workflow engine, and a broker-based MOM. It also applies current technologies like actor-based frameworks for highly concurrent, distributed, and fault tolerant event-driven applications. Therefore REACTOR implementations are well suited to be hosted in a cloud that provides Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). To provide low entry barriers for legacy and future systems, REACTOR adapts the principles of Design by Contract (DbC) as well as standardised and common information models like the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) or the JavaScript Object Notation for geographic features (GeoJSON). REACTOR has been applied exemplarily within two different scenarios, Natural Crisis Management and Industrial Subsurface Development.

METHOD OF LIQUID-LIQUID EXTRACTION OF BLOOD SURROGATES FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE TO JET FUEL

EPA Science Inventory

A baseline method of liquid?liquid extraction for assessing human exposure to JP-8 jet fuel was established by extracting several representative compounds ranging from very volatile to semi-volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene, nonane, decane, undecane, tridec...

TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

2015-04-01

In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at the European scale. The TRIDEC Cloud has not been involved officially in Part B of the NEAMWave14 scenarios. However, the scenarios have been used by GFZ, KOERI, and IPMA for testing in exercise runs on October 27-28, 2014. Additionally, the Greek NEAMWave14 scenario has been tested in an exercise run by GFZ only on October 29, 2014 (see ICG/NEAMTWS-XI/13). The exercise runs demonstrated that operators in warning centres and stakeholders of other involved parties just need a standard web browser to access a full-fledged TEWS. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. Thus tsunami travel times, estimated times of arrival and estimated wave heights are available immediately for visualization and for further analysis and processing. The generation of warning messages is based on internationally agreed message structures and includes static and dynamic information based on earthquake information, instant computations of tsunami simulations, and actual measurements. Generated messages are served for review, modification, and addressing in one simple form for dissemination via Cloud Messages, Shared Maps, e-mail, FTP/GTS, SMS, and FAX. Cloud Messages and Shared Maps are complementary channels and integrate interactive event and simulation data. Thus recipients are enabled to interact dynamically with a map and diagrams beyond traditional text information.

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

2012-11-01

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

Environmental Literacy of Hispanic, Urban, Middle School Students in Houston, Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meuth, Amber M.

2010-01-01

With the global crises facing the planet that bring major implications, (Hart & Nolan, 1999; Hungerford & Simmons, 2003) it is imperative that there be an environmentally literate citizenry who can identify, solve, and prevent environmental issues. Since middle school students are evolving into participating citizens and are developing the…

Parallel Processing of Numerical Tsunami Simulations on a High Performance Cluster based on the GDAL Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the different shapefiles for certain time steps. The shapefiles contain afterwards lines for visualizing the isochrones of the wave propagation and moreover, data about the maximum wave height and the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the coast. Our contribution shows the entire workflow and the visualizing results of the-processing for the example region Western Iberian ocean margin. [1] Armigliato A., Pagnoni G., Zaniboni F, Tinti S. (2013), Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning, Vol. 15, EGU2013-5567, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria). [2] Löwe, P., Wächter, J., Hammitzsch, M., Lendholt, M., Häner, R. (2013): The Evolution of Service-oriented Disaster Early Warning Systems in the TRIDEC Project, 23rd International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference - ISOPE-2013, Anchorage (USA).

Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

PubMed

Girard, Catherine; Renaud, Sabrina

2012-01-01

Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological space itself, which was prone to evolve during this ancient period where modern ecosystems were progressively shaped.

Disparity Changes in 370 Ma Devonian Fossils: The Signature of Ecological Dynamics?

PubMed Central

Girard, Catherine; Renaud, Sabrina

2012-01-01

Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological space itself, which was prone to evolve during this ancient period where modern ecosystems were progressively shaped. PMID:22558396

Multilingual Analysis of Twitter News in Support of Mass Emergency Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, A.; Bügel, U.; Middleton, L.; Middleton, S. E.; Tokarchuk, L.; Watson, K.; Chaves, F.

2012-04-01

Social media are increasingly becoming an additional source of information for event-based early warning systems in the sense that they can help to detect natural crises and support crisis management during or after disasters. Within the European FP7 TRIDEC project we study the problem of analyzing multilingual twitter feeds for emergency events. Specifically, we consider tsunami and earthquakes, as one possible originating cause of tsunami, and propose to analyze twitter messages for capturing testified information at affected points of interest in order to obtain a better picture of the actual situation. For tsunami, these could be the so called Forecast Points, i.e. agreed-upon points chosen by the Regional Tsunami Warning Centers (RTWC) and the potentially affected countries, which must be considered when calculating expected tsunami arrival times. Generally, local civil protection authorities and the population are likely to respond in their native languages. Therefore, the present work focuses on English as "lingua franca" and on under-resourced Mediterranean languages in endangered zones, particularly in Turkey, Greece, and Romania. We investigated ten earthquake events and defined four language-specific classifiers that can be used to detect natural crisis events by filtering out irrelevant messages that do not relate to the event. Preliminary results indicate that such a filter has the potential to support earthquake detection and could be integrated into seismographic sensor networks. One hindrance in our study is the lack of geo-located data for asserting the geographical origin of the tweets and thus to be able to observe correlations of events across languages. One way to overcome this deficit consists in identifying geographic names contained in tweets that correspond to or which are located in the vicinity of specific points-of-interest such as the forecast points of the tsunami scenario. We also intend to use twitter analysis for situation picture assessment, e.g. for planning relief actions. At present, a multilingual corpus of Twitter messages related to crises is being assembled, and domain-specific language resources such as multilingual terminology lists and language-specific Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools are being built up to help cross the language barrier. The final goal is to extend this work to the main languages spoken around the Mediterranean and to classify and extract relevant information from tweets, translating the main keywords into English.

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios. Results are presented in terms of thematic maps and GIS layers highlighting information on inundation depths and limits, evacuation plans and safe shelters, tsunami vulnerability, evacuation times and tsunami risk levels. Results can be used for national and regional tsunami disaster management and planning. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project and by MAREMOTI (Mareograph and field tsunami observations, modeling and vulnerability studies for Northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean) French project. Keywords: Tsunami, Algarve-Portugal, Evacuation, Vulnerability, Risk

The Islamic State and U.S. Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-14

has conducted operations against the group in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Parallel U.S. diplomatic efforts are designed to promote political...governments in support of those governments’ operations against Islamic State affiliates. Evolving counterterrorism cooperation and intelligence sharing...attacks. The interdependent nature of conflicts and political crises in Iraq, Syria, and other countries where the Islamic State operates complicates

Scenarios for Evolving Seismic Crises: Possible Communication Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steacy, S.

2015-12-01

Recent advances in operational earthquake forecasting mean that we are very close to being able to confidently compute changes in earthquake probability as seismic crises develop. For instance, we now have statistical models such as ETAS and STEP which demonstrate considerable skill in forecasting earthquake rates and recent advances in Coulomb based models are also showing much promise. Communicating changes in earthquake probability is likely be very difficult, however, as the absolute probability of a damaging event is likely to remain quite small despite a significant increase in the relative value. Here, we use a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model to compute probability changes for a series of earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the forecasts and suggest a number of possible mechanisms that might be used to communicate results in an actual developing seismic crisis.

Evo-devo of infantile and childhood growth.

PubMed

Hochberg, Ze'ev; Albertsson-Wikland, Kerstin

2008-07-01

Human size is a tradeoff between the evolutionary advantages and disadvantages of being small or big. We now propose that adult size is determined to an important extent during transition from infancy to childhood. This transition is marked by a growth spurt. A delay in the transition has a lifelong impact on stature and is responsible for 44% of children with short stature in developed countries and many more in developing countries. Here, we present the data and theory of an evolutionary adaptive strategy of plasticity in the timing of transition from infancy into childhood to match the prevailing energy supply. We propose that humans have evolved to withstand energy crises by decreasing their body size, and that evolutionary short-term adaptations to energy crises trigger a predictive adaptive response that modify the transition into childhood, culminating in short stature.

Building strategies for tsunami scenarios databases to be used in a tsunami early warning decision support system: an application to western Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. The MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. Examples from both databases will be presented.

Thirty years of personal experience in hyperglycemic crises: diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state.

PubMed

Kitabchi, Abbas E; Umpierrez, Guillermo E; Fisher, Joseph N; Murphy, Mary Beth; Stentz, Frankie B

2008-05-01

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state (HHS) cause major morbidity and significant mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. For more than 30 yr, our group, in a series of prospective, randomized clinical studies, has investigated the pathogenesis and evolving strategies of the treatment of hyperglycemic crises. This paper summarizes the results of these prospective studies on the management and pathophysiology of DKA. Our earliest studies evaluated the comparative efficacy of low-dose vs. pharmacological amounts of insulin and the use of low-dose therapy by various routes in adults and later in children. Subsequent studies evaluated phosphate and bicarbonate therapy, lipid metabolism, ketosis-prone type 2 patients, and use of rapid-acting insulin analogs as well as leptin status, cardiac risk factors, proinflammatory cytokines, and the mechanism of activation of T lymphocytes in hyperglycemic crises. The information garnered from these studies resulted in the creation of the 2001 American Diabetes Association (ADA) technical review on DKA and HHS as well as the ADA Position and Consensus Paper on the therapy for hyperglycemic crises. Areas of future research include prospective randomized studies to do the following: 1) establish the efficacy of bicarbonate therapy in DKA for a pH less than 6.9; 2) establish the need for a bolus insulin dose in the initial therapy of DKA; 3) determine the pathophysiological mechanisms for the absence of ketosis in HHS; 4) investigate the reasons for elevated proinflammatory cytokines and cardiovascular risk factors; and 5) evaluate the efficacy and cost benefit of using sc regular insulin vs. more expensive insulin analogs on the general ward for the treatment of DKA.

To Enable and Sustain: Pacific Air Forces’ Theater Security Cooperation as a Line of Operation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

security cooperation mechanisms already in place are evolving into a more sequenced and deliberate plan towards a defined cooperative end state. This...alignment of higher guidance and is designed to advise and guide the command’s activities in the region. Joint in its es- sence , it communicates and...face of crises, it is far better to prevent them from occurring in the first place , establish cooperative arrangements ahead of time, and reduce

Public Health Crisis Preparedness and Response in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Hye-Young; Oh, Mi-Na; Park, Yong-Shik; Chu, Chaeshin; Son, Tae-Jong

2013-01-01

Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases. PMID:24298444

A long and winding road; evolution of antimicrobial drug development - crisis management.

PubMed

Echols, Roger M

2012-11-01

The development of antimicrobial drugs has evolved from observational case reports to complex randomized prospective clinical trials in specific treatment indications. Beginning around the year 2000, the US FDA has evolved its approach on study design and other study characteristics, which has made the conduct of these studies more difficult and the outcomes for sponsors more risky. This has contributed to the decline in the discovery and development of new antimicrobials, which are needed to address the increasing problem of bacterial resistance to existing marketed products. This study reviews the historical basis for the current regulatory climate including the various crises that have led to considerable political pressures on the agency. Recent efforts to resolve development uncertainties and to provide economic incentives for future antimicrobial drug development are presented.

A Network Based Theory of Health Systems and Cycles of Well-being

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Michael Grant

2013-01-01

There are two dominant approaches to describe and understand the anatomy of complete health and well-being systems internationally. Yet, neither approach has been able to either predict or explain occasional but dramatic crises in health and well-being systems around the world and in developed emerging market or developing country contexts. As the impacts of such events can be measured not simply in terms of their social and economic consequences but also public health crises, there is a clear need to look for and formulate an alternative approach. This paper examines multi-disciplinary theoretical evidence to suggest that health systems exhibit natural and observable systemic and long cycle characteristics that can be modelled. A health and well-being system model of two slowly evolving anthropological network sub-systems is defined. The first network sub-system consists of organised professional networks of exclusive suppliers of health and well-being services. The second network sub-system consists of communities organising themselves to resource those exclusive services. Together these two network sub-systems interact to form the specific (sovereign) health and well-being systems we know today. But the core of a truly ‘complex adaptive system’ can also be identified and a simplified two sub-system model of recurring Lotka-Volterra predator-prey cycles is specified. The implications of such an adaptive and evolving model of system anatomy for effective public health, social security insurance and well-being systems governance could be considerable. PMID:24596831

Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

2015-10-01

The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives.

Role of Social Media and Networking in Volcanic Crises and Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sennert, S.; Klemetti, E. W.; Bird, D. K.

2016-12-01

The growth of social media as a primary and often preferred news source has led to the rapid dissemination of information about volcanic eruptions and potential volcanic crises as they begin, evolve, and end. This information comes from a variety of sources: news organisations, emergency management personnel, individuals (both members of the public and official representatives), and volcano monitoring agencies. Once posted, this information is easily shared, increasing the reach to a much broader population than more traditional forms of media, such as radio and newspapers. The onset and popularity of social media as a vehicle for dissemination of eruption information points toward the need to systematically incorporate social media into the official channels that volcano observatories use to distribute activity statements, forecasts, and images. We explore two examples of projects that collect/disseminate information regarding volcanic crises and eruptive activity via social media sources; the Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report (WVAR), which summarizes new and on-going volcanic activity globally and on a weekly basis, and Eruptions, a blog that discusses eruptions as well as other volcanic topics. Based on these experiences, recommendations are made to volcanic observatories in relation to the use of social media as a communication tool. These recommendations include: using social media as a two-way dialogue to communicate and receive information directly from the public and other sources; stating that the social media account is from an official source; and posting types of information that users want to see such as images, videos, and figures.

Quasi-static evolution of coronal magnetic fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Longcope, D. W.; Sudan, R. N.

1992-01-01

A formalism is developed to describe the purely quasi-static part of the evolution of a coronal loop driven by its footpoints. This is accomplished under assumptions of a long, thin loop. The quasi-static equations reveal the possibility for sudden 'loss of equilibrium' at which time the system evolves dynamically rather than quasi-statically. Such quasi-static crises produce high-frequency Alfven waves and, in conjunction with Alfven wave dissipation models, form a viable coronal heating mechanism. Furthermore, an approximate solution to the quasi-static equations by perturbation method verifies the development of small-scale spatial current structure.

Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

2014-05-01

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

Environmental imperatives reconsidered: demographic crises in western North America during the medieval climatic anomaly.

PubMed

Jones, T L; Brown, G M; Raab, L M; McVickar, J L; Spaulding, W G; Kennett, D J; York, A; Wlaker, P L

1999-04-01

Review of late Holocene paleoenvironmental and cultural sequences from four regions of western North America show striking correlations between drought and changes in subsistence, population, exchange, health, and interpersonal violence during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 800-1350). While ultimate causality is difficult to identify in the archaeological record, synchrony of the environmental and cultural changes and the negative character of many human responses--increased interpersonal violence, deterioration of long-distance exchange relationships, and regional abandonments--suggest widespread demographic crises caused by decreased environmental productivity. The medieval droughts occurred at a unique juncture in the demographic history of western North America when unusually large populations of both hunter-gathers and agriculturalists had evolved highly intensified economies that put them in unprecedented ecological jeopardy. Long-term patterns in the archaeological record are inconsistent with the predicted outcomes of simple adaptation or continuous economic intensification, suggesting that in this instance environmental dynamics played a major role in cultural transformations across a wide expanse of western North America among groups with diverse subsistence strategies. These events suggest that environment should not be overlooked as a potential cause of prehistoric culture change.

Re-evaluation of bone pain in patients with type 1 Gaucher disease suggests that bone crises occur in small bones as well as long bones.

PubMed

Baris, Hagit N; Weisz Hubshman, Monika; Bar-Sever, Zvi; Kornreich, Liora; Shkalim Zemer, Vered; Cohen, Ian J

2016-09-01

Bone crises in type 1 Gaucher disease are reported in long bones and occasionally in weight bearing bones and other bones, but rarely in small bones of the hands and feet. We retrospectively examined the incidence of bone pain in patients followed at the Rabin Medical Center, Israel, before and following the initiation of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) and evaluated them for bone crises. Of 100 type I Gaucher disease patients, 30 (30%) experienced one or more bone crises. Small bone crises represented 31.5% of all bone crises and were always preceded by crises in other bones. While the incidence of long bone crises reduced after the initiation of ERT, small bone crises increased. Almost 60% of patients with bone crises were of the N370S/84GG genotype suggesting a greater susceptibility of N370S/84GG patients to severe bone complications. These patients also underwent the greatest number of splenectomies (70.6% of splenectomised patients). Splenectomised patients showed a trend towards increased long and small bone crises after surgery. Active investigation of acute pain in the hands and feet in patients in our cohort has revealed a high incidence of small bone crises. Physicians should consider imaging studies to investigate unexplained pain in these areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human resource crises in German hospitals--an explorative study.

PubMed

Schermuly, Carsten C; Draheim, Michael; Glasberg, Ronald; Stantchev, Vladimir; Tamm, Gerrit; Hartmann, Michael; Hessel, Franz

2015-05-28

The complexity of providing medical care in a high-tech environment with a highly specialized, limited labour force makes hospitals more crisis-prone than other industries. An effective defence against crises is only possible if the organizational resilience and the capacity to handle crises become part of the hospitals' organizational culture. To become more resilient to crises, a raised awareness--especially in the area of human resource (HR)--is necessary. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the process robustness against crises through the identification and evaluation of relevant HR crises and their causations in hospitals. Qualitative and quantitative methods were combined to identify and evaluate crises in hospitals in the HR sector. A structured workshop with experts was conducted to identify HR crises and their descriptions, as well as causes and consequences for patients and hospitals. To evaluate the findings, an online survey was carried out to rate the occurrence (past, future) and dangerousness of each crisis. Six HR crises were identified in this study: staff shortages, acute loss of personnel following a pandemic, damage to reputation, insufficient communication during restructuring, bullying, and misuse of drugs. The highest occurrence probability in the future was seen in staff shortages, followed by acute loss of personnel following a pandemic. Staff shortages, damage to reputation, and acute loss of personnel following a pandemic were seen as the most dangerous crises. The study concludes that coping with HR crises in hospitals is existential for hospitals and requires increased awareness. The six HR crises identified occurred regularly in German hospitals in the past, and their occurrence probability for the future was rated as high.

Sickle cell disease in children.

PubMed

Meier, Emily Riehm; Miller, Jeffery L

2012-05-07

Early identification of infants with sickle cell disease (SCD) by newborn screening, now universal in all 50 states in the US, has improved survival, mainly by preventing overwhelming sepsis with the early use of prophylactic penicillin. Routine transcranial Doppler screening with the institution of chronic transfusion decreases the risk of stroke from 10% to 1% in paediatric SCD patients. Hydroxyurea decreases the number and frequency of painful crises, acute chest syndromes and number of blood transfusions in children with SCD. Genetic research continues to be driven toward the prevention and ultimate cure of SCD before adulthood. This review focuses on clinical manifestations and therapeutic strategies for paediatric SCD as well as the evolving topic of gene-focused prevention and therapy.

Review of book vestibular crises

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blagoveshchenskaya, N. S.

1980-01-01

The etiology, pathogenesis, clinical practice, treatment and rehabilitation of patients with vestibular crises is discussed. Classifications for vestibular disorders are given. Information on the frequency of vestibular crises is given.

The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program: Working with International Partners to Reduce the Risk from Volcanic Eruptions Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayberry, G. C.; Pallister, J. S.

2015-12-01

The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) is a joint effort between USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). OFDA leads and coordinates disaster responses overseas for the U.S. government and is a unique stakeholder concerned with volcano disaster risk reduction as an international humanitarian assistance donor. One year after the tragic eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in 1985, OFDA began funding USGS to implement VDAP. VDAP's mission is to reduce the loss of life and property and limit the economic impact from foreign volcano crises, thereby preventing such crises from becoming disasters. VDAP fulfills this mission and complements OFDA's humanitarian assistance by providing crisis response, capacity-building, technical training, and hazard assessments to developing countries before, during, and after eruptions. During the past 30 years, VDAP has responded to more than 27 major volcanic crises, built capacity in 12+ countries, and helped counterparts save tens of thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in property. VDAP responses have evolved as host-country capabilities have grown, but the pace of work has not diminished; as a result of VDAP's work at 27 volcanoes in fiscal year 2014, more than 1.3 million people who could have been impacted by volcanic activity benefitted from VDAP assistance, 11 geological policies were modified, 188 scientists were trained, and several successful eruption forecasts were made. VDAP is developing new initiatives to help counterparts monitor volcanoes and communicate volcanic risk. These include developing the Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) to learn from compiled crisis data from 30 years of VDAP responses, creating event trees to forecast eruptions at restless volcanoes, and exploring the use of unmanned aerial systems for monitoring. The use of these new methods, along with traditional VDAP assistance, has improved VDAP's ability to assist counterparts with preparing for eruptions.

[Medication-related oculogyric crises: a description of four cases and a review of the literature].

PubMed

Darling, A; Poo, P; Perez-Duenas, B; Campistol, J

2013-02-01

Oculogyric crises are considered to be a form of focal dystonia and can be observed as reactions to pharmaceuticals. The signs and symptoms may be confused with epileptic crises. To describe the clinical features and progress of patients with pharmaceutical-related oculogyric crises and to carry out a review of the topic. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study of four patients evaluated in the neurology service due to oculogyric crises. The patients had been diagnosed with an associated conduct disorder requiring treatment with antipsychotic drugs. The episodes of oculogyric crises did not correlate with the findings in the electroencephalogram. They responded well to the reduction in dosage or to withdrawal of the apparent causing agent. The clinical picture does not present only in patients treated with antipsychotics but is also linked with other pharmaceuticals that are frequently used in daily paediatric practice. When oculogyric crises are the reason for visiting, differential diagnoses must be taken into account in order to avoid unnecessary studies and to carry out an appropriate therapeutic management.

When Crisis Strikes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caudle, Melissa

1994-01-01

School crises may be categorized as emergency situations, human-made crises, natural events, medical emergencies, and mechanical crises. Central to any successful crisis-management plan are onsite and district-level crisis response teams. Plans should specify staff responsibilities; provide for communication codes, devices, and procedures;…

Investigation on financial crises with the negative-information-propagation-induced model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Feng-Hua; Deng, Yanbin; Huang, Yong-Chang

2017-03-01

We first argue about the similarity between the propagation phenomenon of negative information about potential deterioration of economic situation in group of investors and the propagation phenomenon of infectious disease in crowd Applying the negative-information-propagation-induced model built based on above argument, we investigate the relationship between the generation of financial crises and propagation effects of negative information We introduce the discrimination parameter to distinguish whether or not negative information will be propagated extensively in group of investors. We also introduce the target critical value of financial crises. By comparing the theoretically predicted ratio of the long term projected number of total investors to the total number of investors at some time as initial time with target critical value of financial crises, the model can provide real-time monitoring of whether the curve of total number of investors is progressing toward the direction of generating financial crises or running on track of financial markets safety. If at some time this ratio is computed to be less than the target critical value of financial crises, governments can take relevant measures to prevent the generation of financial crises in advance Governments' interference helps to recover the confidence of investors so that they never will again believe in negative information to continue their investment. Results from theoretical and numerical analysis show that the number of investors who hold the belief of potential deterioration of economic situation, and the number of investors who withdraw capital and depart from financial markets for avoiding business loss when governments make appropriate interference are lowered compared to that without appropriate governments' interference. The results show the effectiveness of governments in preventing financial crises from the viewpoint of the negative information-propagation-induced model, namely governments' prevention against financial crises can reduce the possibility of the generation of financial crises.

Managing Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggen, Jerald D.; Mackenzie, R. Alec

1987-01-01

To avoid emergency-driven work environments, crises should be anticipated to the extent possible; steps should be taken to prevent them or limit their consequences. Crises have both internal (personal) and external causes based on poor performance, unreasonable demands, or shifting priorities. Administrators need to cushion deadlines, clarify…

The impact of economic crises on social inequalities in health: what do we know so far?

PubMed

Bacigalupe, Amaia; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio

2014-07-25

Since 2008, Western countries are going through a deep economic crisis whose health impacts seem to be fundamentally counter-cyclical: when economic conditions worsen, so does health, and mortality tends to rise. While a growing number of studies have presented evidence on the effect of crises on the average population health, a largely neglected aspect of research is the impact of crises and the related political responses on social inequalities in health, even if the negative consequences of the crises are primarily borne by the most disadvantaged populations. This commentary will reflect on the results of the studies that have analyzed the effect of economic crises on social inequalities in health up to 2013. With some exceptions, the studies show an increase in health inequalities during crises, especially during the Southeast Asian and Japanese crises and the Soviet Union crisis, although it is not always evident for both sexes or all health or socioeconomic variables. In the Nordic countries during the nineties, a clear worsening of health equity did not occur. Results about the impacts of the current economic recession on health equity are still inconsistent. Some of the factors that could explain this variability in results are the role of welfare state policies, the diversity of time periods used in the analyses, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic and health variables considered, the changes in the socioeconomic profile of the groups under comparison in times of crises, and the type of measures used to analyze the magnitude of social inequalities in health. Social epidemiology should further collaborate with other disciplines to help produce more accurate and useful evidence about the relationship between crises and health equity.

Managing Mental Health Crises of Foreign College Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oropeza, Barbara A. Clark; And Others

1991-01-01

Notes that student services professionals manage a number of mental health crises as part of their job responsibilities. Examines some issues that arise from assisting foreign college students experiencing such crises, with special focus on psychiatric committal, withdrawal from school, and return to the home country. (Author)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovoor-Misra, S.

Technical organizations are not only vulnerable to crises, but have the potential to create catastrophic crises. This has been devastatingly illustrated by recent crises, such as the gas leak in Bhopal, India, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and the Challenger explosion. Thus, crises preparation for these organizations. This paper describes a Multidimensional Approach to crisis preparation for technical organizations. As part of this approach, come critical factors for crisis preparation are also described. The Multidimensional Approach is derived from the literature and a study of the crisis preparation of nine technical organizations. 28 refs., 3 figs., 4 tab.

[Public health crises in a developed society. Successes and limitations in Spain. SESPAS report 2010].

PubMed

Gérvas, Juan; Meneu, Ricard

2010-12-01

The perception, acceptability and management of risks are social construction. Consequently, in managing public health crises, the gap between facts, beliefs and feelings tests the responsiveness of official institutions to health alarms that can be objective, potential, or imaginary. On balance, a strong point of the Spanish experience of health crises is the presence of clinicians and public health officers working in an organization capable of responding adequately, although the quasi-federal Spanish political structure has both advantages and disadvantages. Weaknesses include the low profile given to public health and a management structure that relies too heavily on partitocracy. The management of these crises could be improved by transferring greater scope to health professionals in decisions about crisis identification and management (with transparency) and limiting bureaucratic inertia. For some, health crises involve visibility or business opportunities (not always legitimate). Therefore, the perception of crisis will increasingly rest less in the hands of experts and more in those of groups interested in spreading these crises or in providing solutions. While progress is needed to develop participation in strategies to respond to emerging crises, even more essential is the involvement of all healthcare levels in their preparation and dissemination. Copyright © 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-03-31

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-01-01

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

Cultural diversity: family path through terminal illness.

PubMed

Baider, L

2012-04-01

In trying to comprehend a culture and its ways of structuring the world, much can be learned from addressing the manner in which intimate family relationships are ordered and family crises channeled toward care. A family's experience with illness cannot be considered in isolation from the cultural milieu in which it occurs. Family adaptation to cancer diagnosis is a continuous motion between many critical strata--a fragile oscillation between hope and desperation. Processes for optimal functioning and the well-being of members are seen to vary over time, as challenges unfold and families evolve across the life cycle and illness trajectory. The manner in which the healthcare system and family manage illness and terminal care is a particularly helpful window into the cultural, religious and traditional values of every family in a particular society.

When Crises Call

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kisch, Marian

2012-01-01

Natural disasters, as well as crises of the man-made variety, call on leaders of school districts to manage scenarios impossible to predict and for which no amount of training can adequately prepare. One thing all major crises hold in common is their far-reaching effects, which can run the gamut from personal safety and mental well-being to the…

Helping Students Cope with Fears and Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walz, Garry R., Ed.; Bleuer, Jeanne C., Ed.

This document consists of two modules extracted from a six-module larger work. Module 1 presents six articles on the topic of "helping students to cope with fears and crises." Module 2 contains 17 articles on "programs and practices for helping students cope with fears and crises." Article titles and authors are as follows: (1)…

Caring and Coping. Contemporary Issues: Facing Family Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosatche, Harriet S.

This booklet focuses on three particularly prevalent family crises: divorce, the death of a parent, and poverty. These crises profoundly affect millions of children in their personal, academic, and social development. The information and activities in this booklet are provided to enable Girl Scout leaders to increase their efforts both in helping…

THE IMPACT OF CRISIS UPON THE BEHAVIOR OF NATIONS IN THE 1960's.

PubMed

Phillips, W R; Lorimor, T

1974-10-01

This study examines international crises in the 1960's, specifically those crises that occurred between June, 1962 and July, 1968. The conflictual aspects of interacting dyads involved in crises during that period were examined t o discern the conflictual dimensions of national behavior in crises. In addition, conflict behavior was examined for those periods immediately prior to and immediately following crisis situations. This resulted in dimensions of conflict behavior for pre-crisis, during-crisis, and post-crisis periods. The periods were contrasted with one another to gain a better conception of the behavior exhibited in international crises. It was found that the dimensions of behavior change in predictable ways in the shift from one period to another. The behavior of individual dyads does shift in ways which are not predictable by simple linear technique.

Causes, Consequences and Control of Students' Crises in Public and Private Universities in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adeyemi, T. O.

2009-01-01

This paper investigated the causes, consequences and control of students' crises in public and private universities in Nigeria. Students' crises involve making protest by students' in pressing their demand on various issues with university authorities. In this regard, the study population comprised all the 81 universities in the country from which…

Multiple crises and global health: New and necessary frontiers of health politics

PubMed Central

Schrecker, Ted

2012-01-01

The world economy is entering an era of multiple crises, involving finance, food security and global environmental change. This article assesses the implications for global public health, describes the contours of post-2007 crises in food security and finance, and then briefly indicates the probable health impacts. There follows a discussion of the crisis of climate change, one that will unfold over a longer time frame but with manifestations that may already be upon us. The article then discusses the political economy of responses to these crises, noting the formidable obstacles that exist to equitable resolution. The article concludes by noting the threat that such crises present to recent progress in global health, arguing that global health researchers and practitioners must become more familiar with the relevant social processes, and that proposed solutions that neglect the continuing importance of the nation-state are misdirected. PMID:22657093

Multiple crises and global health: new and necessary frontiers of health politics.

PubMed

Schrecker, Ted

2012-01-01

The world economy is entering an era of multiple crises, involving finance, food security and global environmental change. This article assesses the implications for global public health, describes the contours of post-2007 crises in food security and finance, and then briefly indicates the probable health impacts. There follows a discussion of the crisis of climate change, one that will unfold over a longer time frame but with manifestations that may already be upon us. The article then discusses the political economy of responses to these crises, noting the formidable obstacles that exist to equitable resolution. The article concludes by noting the threat that such crises present to recent progress in global health, arguing that global health researchers and practitioners must become more familiar with the relevant social processes, and that proposed solutions that neglect the continuing importance of the nation-state are misdirected.

Crises in EFL Proficiency and Teacher Development in the Context of International Donation and Transformation Discourses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birbirso, Dereje Tadesse

2014-01-01

Since 2000, Ethiopia has been working to come out of social crises, modernise itself and achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Although provided with billions of dollars by the West and their international agents, little has been changed and the crises seem never to abate, especially in the educational system. This study, thus, critically…

Drug therapy in pregnancy: the lessons of diethylstilbestrol, thalidomide, and bendectin.

PubMed

Saunders, E J; Saunders, J A

1990-01-01

A pregnant woman and the fetus she carries face health risks from many sources. One risk that requires ongoing vigilance is the use of prescription drugs during pregnancy. The international health care community has been sensitized to the risks of drug use during pregnancy because of three pharmaceuticals that have caused widespread crises for mothers and their offspring. The crises that diethylstilbestrol, thalidomide, and, to a lesser extent, Bendectin have created in the past four decades are reviewed in this article. The lessons these drug crises can teach us are articulated in the belief that similar crises may be averted in the future.

["Second victim" - error, crises and how to get out of it].

PubMed

von Laue, N; Schwappach, D; Hochreutener, M

2012-06-01

Medical errors do not only harm patients ("first victims"). Almost all health care professionals become a so-called "second victim" once in their career by being involved in a medical error. Studies show that error involvement can have a tremendous impact on health care workers leading to burnout, depression and professional crisis. Moreover persons involved in errors show a decline in job performance and jeopardize therefore patient safety. Blaming the person is one of the typical psychological reactions after an error happened as the attribution theory tells. The self-esteem gets stabilized if we can put blame on someone and pick out a scapegoat. But standing alone makes the emotional situation even worse. A vicious circle can evolve with tragic effect for the individual and negative implications for patient safety and the health care setting.

Digital detectives and virtual volunteers: Integrating emergent online communities into disaster response operations.

PubMed

Griswold, Alisha

2013-01-01

The demonstration of altruistic behaviours by disaster survivors, and even those observing emergencies from afar, is well documented. Over the past few decades, government-sponsored crisis planning has evolved to include affiliated volunteer agencies, with a general acknowledgment of the need to plan for unaffiliated or spontaneous volunteers. Just as the understanding of the need for volunteers has grown, so too have the ways in which volunteers are able to donate their time and skills. The popularity of social media networks and online communities provide new ways for the public to get involved in disaster response. Public service agencies should be proactive in investigating these emerging platforms and understanding their impacts during crises. Established methods of integrating on-scene volunteers into post-disaster response operations can be used as templates for creating virtual volunteer programmes.

A Review of the Literature of the Process of Giving Warning with Discussion of Implications for Futurists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koster, Francis

The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of…

A Numeric Scorecard Assessing the Mental Health Preparedness for Large-Scale Crises at College and University Campuses: A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgin, Rick A.

2012-01-01

Large-scale crises continue to surprise, overwhelm, and shatter college and university campuses. While the devastation to physical plants and persons is often evident and is addressed with crisis management plans, the number of emotional casualties left in the wake of these large-scale crises may not be apparent and are often not addressed with…

Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

2016-05-01

This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

Crisis Reliability Indicators Supporting Emergency Services (CRISES): A Framework for Developing Performance Measures for Behavioral Health Crisis and Psychiatric Emergency Programs.

PubMed

Balfour, Margaret E; Tanner, Kathleen; Jurica, Paul J; Rhoads, Richard; Carson, Chris A

2016-01-01

Crisis and emergency psychiatric services are an integral part of the healthcare system, yet there are no standardized measures for programs providing these services. We developed the Crisis Reliability Indicators Supporting Emergency Services (CRISES) framework to create measures that inform internal performance improvement initiatives and allow comparison across programs. The framework consists of two components-the CRISES domains (timely, safe, accessible, least-restrictive, effective, consumer/family centered, and partnership) and the measures supporting each domain. The CRISES framework provides a foundation for development of standardized measures for the crisis field. This will become increasingly important as pay-for-performance initiatives expand with healthcare reform.

Greek-Turkish Crises since 1955. Implications for Greek-Turkish Conflict Management

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS GREEK-TURKISH CRISES SINCE 1955. IMPLICATIONS FOR GREEK-TURKISH CONFLICT MANAGEMENT by...EU, WEU) have only to gain from a Greek-Turkish rapprochement. 14. SUBJECT TERMS GrEek-Turkish RElATiONS, CRiSiS MANAgEMENT, CONfLICT management 15...crises, because the intended outcome of mediation attempts has been regional stability instead of Greek-Turkish conflict management . Power mediation

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

PubMed Central

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008–09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability. PMID:26804492

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective.

PubMed

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-25

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Science during crisis: the application of social science during major environmental crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machlis, Gary; Ludwig, Kris; Manfredo, Michael J.; Vaske, Jerry J.; Rechkemmer, Andreas; Duke, Esther

2014-01-01

Historical and contemporary experience suggests that science plays an increasingly critical role in governmental and institutional responses to major environmental crises. Recent examples include major western wildfires (2009), the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012). The application of science during such crises has several distinctive characteristics, as well as essential requirements if it is to be useful to decision makers. these include scope conditions that include coupled natural/human systems, clear statement of uncertainties and limitations, description of cascading consequences, accurate sense of place, estimates of magnitude of impacts, identification of beneficiaries and those adversely affected, clarity and conciseness, compelling visualization and presentation, capacity to speak "truth to power", and direct access to decision makers. In this chapter, we explore the role and significance of science – including all relevant disciplines and focusing attention on the social sciences – in responding to major environmental crises. We explore several important questions: How is science during crisis distinctive? What social science is most useful during crises? What distinctive characteristics are necessary for social science to make meaningful contributions to emergency response and recovery? How might the social sciences be integrated into the strategic science needed to respond to future crises? The authors, both members of the Department of the Interior's innovative Strategic Sciences Group, describe broad principles of engagement as well as specific examples drawn from history, contemporary efforts (such as during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill), and predictions of environmental crises still to be confronted.

Economy Over Security: Why Crises Fail to Impact Economic Behavior in East Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

SECURITY: WHY CRISES FAIL TO IMPACT ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN EAST ASIA by Aaron R. Sipos December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Michael Glosny Second...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ECONOMY OVER SECURITY: WHY CRISES FAIL TO IMPACT ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN EAST...release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This study examines changes in economic behavior in

A half-baked solution: drivers of water crises in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godinez Madrigal, Jonatan; van der Zaag, Pieter; van Cauwenbergh, Nora

2018-02-01

Mexico is considered a regional economic and political powerhouse because of the size of its economy, and a large population in constant growth. However, this same growth accompanied by management and governance failures are causing several water crises across the country. The paper aims at identifying and analyzing the drivers of water crises. Water authorities seem to focus solely on large infrastructural schemes to counter the looming water crises, but fail to structure a set of policies for the improvement of management and governance institutions. The paper concludes with the implications of a business-as-usual policy based on infrastructure for solving water problems, which include a non-compliance to the human right to water and sanitation, ecosystem collapses and water conflicts.

Time series analysis of S&P 500 index: A horizontal visibility graph approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vamvakaris, Michail D.; Pantelous, Athanasios A.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

2018-05-01

The behavior of stock prices has been thoroughly studied throughout the last century, and contradictory results have been reported in the corresponding literature. In this paper, a network theoretical approach is provided to investigate how crises affected the behavior of US stock prices. We analyze high frequency data from S&P500 via the Horizontal Visibility Graph method, and find that all major crises that took place worldwide in the last twenty years, affected significantly the behavior of the price-index. Nevertheless, we observe that each of those crises impacted the index in a different way and magnitude. Interestingly, our results suggest that the predictability of the price-index series increases during the periods of crises.

Strengthening the evidence base for health programming in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Ager, A; Burnham, G; Checchi, F; Gayer, M; Grais, R F; Henkens, M; Massaquoi, M B F; Nandy, R; Navarro-Colorado, C; Spiegel, P

2014-09-12

Given the growing scale and complexity of responses to humanitarian crises, it is important to develop a stronger evidence base for health interventions in such contexts. Humanitarian crises present unique challenges to rigorous and effective research, but there are substantial opportunities for scientific advance. Studies need to focus where the translation of evidence from noncrisis scenarios is not viable and on ethical ways of determining what happens in the absence of an intervention. Robust methodologies suited to crisis settings have to be developed and used to assess interventions with potential for delivery at scale. Strengthening research capacity in the low- to middle-income countries that are vulnerable to crises is also crucial. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

How do economic crises affect migrants' risk of infectious disease? A systematic-narrative review.

PubMed

Kentikelenis, Alexander; Karanikolos, Marina; Williams, Gemma; Mladovsky, Philipa; King, Lawrence; Pharris, Anastasia; Suk, Jonathan E; Hatzakis, Angelos; McKee, Martin; Noori, Teymur; Stuckler, David

2015-12-01

It is not well understood how economic crises affect infectious disease incidence and prevalence, particularly among vulnerable groups. Using a susceptible-infected-recovered framework, we systematically reviewed literature on the impact of the economic crises on infectious disease risks in migrants in Europe, focusing principally on HIV, TB, hepatitis and other STIs. We conducted two searches in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, websites of key organizations and grey literature to identify how economic changes affect migrant populations and infectious disease. We perform a narrative synthesis in order to map critical pathways and identify hypotheses for subsequent research. The systematic review on links between economic crises and migrant health identified 653 studies through database searching; only seven met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen items were identified through further searches. The systematic review on links between economic crises and infectious disease identified 480 studies through database searching; 19 met the inclusion criteria. Eight items were identified through further searches. The reviews show that migrant populations in Europe appear disproportionately at risk of specific infectious diseases, and that economic crises and subsequent responses have tended to exacerbate such risks. Recessions lead to unemployment, impoverishment and other risk factors that can be linked to the transmissibility of disease among migrants. Austerity measures that lead to cuts in prevention and treatment programmes further exacerbate infectious disease risks among migrants. Non-governmental health service providers occasionally stepped in to cater to specific populations that include migrants. There is evidence that migrants are especially vulnerable to infectious disease during economic crises. Ring-fenced funding of prevention programs, including screening and treatment, is important for addressing this vulnerability. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

How do economic crises affect migrants’ risk of infectious disease? A systematic-narrative review

PubMed Central

Karanikolos, Marina; Williams, Gemma; Mladovsky, Philipa; King, Lawrence; Pharris, Anastasia; Suk, Jonathan E.; Hatzakis, Angelos; McKee, Martin; Noori, Teymur; Stuckler, David

2015-01-01

Background: It is not well understood how economic crises affect infectious disease incidence and prevalence, particularly among vulnerable groups. Using a susceptible-infected-recovered framework, we systematically reviewed literature on the impact of the economic crises on infectious disease risks in migrants in Europe, focusing principally on HIV, TB, hepatitis and other STIs. Methods: We conducted two searches in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, websites of key organizations and grey literature to identify how economic changes affect migrant populations and infectious disease. We perform a narrative synthesis in order to map critical pathways and identify hypotheses for subsequent research. Results: The systematic review on links between economic crises and migrant health identified 653 studies through database searching; only seven met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen items were identified through further searches. The systematic review on links between economic crises and infectious disease identified 480 studies through database searching; 19 met the inclusion criteria. Eight items were identified through further searches. The reviews show that migrant populations in Europe appear disproportionately at risk of specific infectious diseases, and that economic crises and subsequent responses have tended to exacerbate such risks. Recessions lead to unemployment, impoverishment and other risk factors that can be linked to the transmissibility of disease among migrants. Austerity measures that lead to cuts in prevention and treatment programmes further exacerbate infectious disease risks among migrants. Non-governmental health service providers occasionally stepped in to cater to specific populations that include migrants. Conclusions: There is evidence that migrants are especially vulnerable to infectious disease during economic crises. Ring-fenced funding of prevention programs, including screening and treatment, is important for addressing this vulnerability. PMID:26318852

Crises Management in the Oil and Gas Industry: The Niger Delta Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odemene, Glory C.

The Niger Delta crises escalated beyond the borders of the Nigerian nation to become an issue that affected individuals and corporations around the world. This study led to the discovery of how the local crises escalated with international implications. This discovery was accomplished by addressing how the Niger Delta crises escalated from villages to international scenes, with notable impacts on the environment, health, safety, security, and financial segments of local, international, private, and corporate entities. Using Sweeny's crisis decision theory and Lazarus and Folkman's coping theory, the study considered the coping strategies of community members, the decisions, and actions they took in response to the management approaches of the government and the oil and gas companies (OGCs). This qualitative study utilized historical narrative to collect data by interviewing 4 participants who lived and worked in the region during the crises. NVivo was used for manual and automatic coding of data, as well as for categorization and connection of codes. Content analysis of identified codes and categories revealed the themes and trends in the experiences narrated by participants. Findings include the root causes, trend of escalation, and management strategies of the government and the OGCs that influenced the crises. These findings will help to influence policies and practices in the region and enhance effective management of current and emerging conflicts, with possibilities of restoring stability and security in the areas and in the nation at large.

Myotonic Dystrophy and Huntington's Disease Care: "We Like to Think We're Making a Difference".

PubMed

LaDonna, Kori A; Watling, Christopher J; Ray, Susan L; Piechowicz, Christine; Venance, Shannon L

2016-09-01

Patient-centered care for individuals with myotonic dystrophy (DM1) and Huntington's disease (HD)-chronic, progressive, and life-limiting neurological conditions-may be challenged by patients' cognitive and behavioral impairments. However, no research has explored health care providers' (HCPs') perspectives about patient-centered care provision for these patients along their disease trajectory. Constructivist grounded theory informed the iterative data collection and analysis process. Eleven DM1 or HD HCPs participated in semistructured interviews, and three stages of coding were used to analyze their interview transcripts. Codes were collapsed into themes and categories. Three categories including an evolving care approach, fluid roles, and making a difference were identified. Participants described that their clinical care approach evolved depending on the patient's disease stage and caregivers' degree of involvement. HCPs described that their main goal was to provide hope to patients and caregivers through medical management, crisis prevention, support, and advocacy. Despite the lack of curative treatments, HCPs perceived that patients benefited from ongoing clinical care provided by proactive clinicians. Providing care for individuals with DM1 and HD is a balancing act. HCPs must strike a balance between (1) the frustrations and rewards of patient-centered care provision, (2) addressing symptoms and preventing and managing crises while focusing on patients' and caregivers' quality of life concerns, and (3) advocating for patients while addressing caregivers' needs. This raises important questions: Is patient-centered care possible for patients with cognitive decline? Does chronic neurological care need to evolve to better address patients' and caregivers' complex needs?

“Hitting the wall”: Lived experiences of mental health crises

PubMed Central

Karlsson, Bengt; Lofthus, Ann-Mari; Davidson, Larry

2011-01-01

Background As Norway moves toward the provision of home-based crisis response, knowledge is needed about understandings of mental health crisis and effective ways of addressing crises within the home. Objective To elicit and learn from service users’ experiences about the subjective meanings of crisis and what kind of help will be most effective in resolving mental health crises. Theoretical A phenomenological-hermeneutic cooperative inquiry method was used to elicit and analyse focus group responses from mental health service users who had experienced crises. Results Findings clustered into three themes: (1) Crisis as multifaceted and varied experiences; (2) losing the skills and structure of everyday life; and (3) complexities involved in family support. Conclusion Several aspects of crises require an expansion of the biomedical model of acute intervention to include consideration of the personal and familial meaning of the crisis, attention to the home context, and activities of daily living that are disrupted by the crisis, and ways for the person and the family to share in and learn from resolution of the crisis. PMID:22140400

FOSS GIS on the GFZ HPC cluster: Towards a service-oriented Scientific Geocomputation Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, P.; Klump, J.; Thaler, J.

2012-12-01

High performance compute clusters can be used as geocomputation workbenches. Their wealth of resources enables us to take on geocomputation tasks which exceed the limitations of smaller systems. These general capabilities can be harnessed via tools such as Geographic Information System (GIS), provided they are able to utilize the available cluster configuration/architecture and provide a sufficient degree of user friendliness to allow for wide application. While server-level computing is clearly not sufficient for the growing numbers of data- or computation-intense tasks undertaken, these tasks do not get even close to the requirements needed for access to "top shelf" national cluster facilities. So until recently such kind of geocomputation research was effectively barred due to lack access to of adequate resources. In this paper we report on the experiences gained by providing GRASS GIS as a software service on a HPC compute cluster at the German Research Centre for Geosciences using Platform Computing's Load Sharing Facility (LSF). GRASS GIS is the oldest and largest Free Open Source (FOSS) GIS project. During ramp up in 2011, multiple versions of GRASS GIS (v 6.4.2, 6.5 and 7.0) were installed on the HPC compute cluster, which currently consists of 234 nodes with 480 CPUs providing 3084 cores. Nineteen different processing queues with varying hardware capabilities and priorities are provided, allowing for fine-grained scheduling and load balancing. After successful initial testing, mechanisms were developed to deploy scripted geocomputation tasks onto dedicated processing queues. The mechanisms are based on earlier work by NETELER et al. (2008) and allow to use all 3084 cores for GRASS based geocomputation work. However, in practice applications are limited to fewer resources as assigned to their respective queue. Applications of the new GIS functionality comprise so far of hydrological analysis, remote sensing and the generation of maps of simulated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea for the Tsunami Atlas of the FP-7 TRIDEC Project (www.tridec-online.eu). This included the processing of complex problems, requiring significant amounts of processing time up to full 20 CPU days. This GRASS GIS-based service is provided as a research utility in the sense of "Software as a Service" (SaaS) and is a first step towards a GFZ corporate cloud service.

The FOSS GIS Workbench on the GFZ Load Sharing Facility compute cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, P.; Klump, J.; Thaler, J.

2012-04-01

Compute clusters can be used as GIS workbenches, their wealth of resources allow us to take on geocomputation tasks which exceed the limitations of smaller systems. To harness these capabilities requires a Geographic Information System (GIS), able to utilize the available cluster configuration/architecture and a sufficient degree of user friendliness to allow for wide application. In this paper we report on the first successful porting of GRASS GIS, the oldest and largest Free Open Source (FOSS) GIS project, onto a compute cluster using Platform Computing's Load Sharing Facility (LSF). In 2008, GRASS6.3 was installed on the GFZ compute cluster, which at that time comprised 32 nodes. The interaction with the GIS was limited to the command line interface, which required further development to encapsulate the GRASS GIS business layer to facilitate its use by users not familiar with GRASS GIS. During the summer of 2011, multiple versions of GRASS GIS (v 6.4, 6.5 and 7.0) were installed on the upgraded GFZ compute cluster, now consisting of 234 nodes with 480 CPUs providing 3084 cores. The GFZ compute cluster currently offers 19 different processing queues with varying hardware capabilities and priorities, allowing for fine-grained scheduling and load balancing. After successful testing of core GIS functionalities, including the graphical user interface, mechanisms were developed to deploy scripted geocomputation tasks onto dedicated processing queues. The mechanisms are based on earlier work by NETELER et al. (2008). A first application of the new GIS functionality was the generation of maps of simulated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea for the Tsunami Atlas of the FP-7 TRIDEC Project (www.tridec-online.eu). For this, up to 500 processing nodes were used in parallel. Further trials included the processing of geometrically complex problems, requiring significant amounts of processing time. The GIS cluster successfully completed all these tasks, with processing times lasting up to full 20 CPU days. The deployment of GRASS GIS on a compute cluster allows our users to tackle GIS tasks previously out of reach of single workstations. In addition, this GRASS GIS cluster implementation will be made available to other users at GFZ in the course of 2012. It will thus become a research utility in the sense of "Software as a Service" (SaaS) and can be seen as our first step towards building a GFZ corporate cloud service.

Lysosomal storage disorders: A review of the musculoskeletal features.

PubMed

James, Rebecca A; Singh-Grewal, Davinder; Lee, Senq-J; McGill, Jim; Adib, Navid

2016-03-01

The lysosomal storage disorders are a collection of progressive, multisystem disorders that frequently present in childhood. Their timely diagnosis is paramount as they are becoming increasingly treatable. Musculoskeletal manifestations often occur early in the disease course, hence are useful as diagnostics clues. Non-inflammatory joint stiffness or pain, carpal tunnel syndrome, trigger fingers, unexplained pain crises and short stature should all prompt consideration of a lysosomal storage disorder. Recurrent ENT infections, hepatosplenomegaly, recurrent hernias and visual/hearing impairment - especially when clustered together - are important extra-skeletal features. As diagnostic and therapeutic options continue to evolve, children with lysosomal storage disorders and their families are facing more sophisticated options for screening and treatment. The aim of this article is to highlight the paediatric presentations of lysosomal storage disorders, with an emphasis on the musculoskeletal features. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Government management of two media-facilitated crises involving dioxin contamination of food.

PubMed

Jacob, Casey J; Lok, Corie; Morley, Katija; Powell, Douglas A

2011-03-01

Incidents become crises through a constant and intense public scrutiny facilitated by the media. Two incidents involving dioxin contamination of food led to crises in Belgium and the Republic of Ireland in 1999 and 2008, respectively. Thought to cause cancer in humans, dioxins reached the food supply in both incidents through the contamination of fat used for animal feed. The food and agricultural industries connected to each incident relied on crisis management activities of federal governments to limit adverse public reaction. Analysis of the management of the two crises by their respective federal governments, and a subsequent review of crisis management literature, led to the development of an effective crisis management model. Such a model, appropriately employed, may insulate industries associated with a crisis against damaged reputations and financial loss.

Commentary on Becoming a Daughter: Trauma is a powerful teacher.

PubMed

Veach, Patricia McCarthy

2006-06-01

Personal life crises profoundly impact genetic counselor practice. In this commentary, themes from Matloff's (in press) article, Becoming a Daughter are highlighted and expanded upon. These themes include: personal impact of a life crisis, and professional impact vis a vis empathy countertransference, self-disclosure, nondirectiveness, and self-confidence. Strategies that help genetic counselors manage personal life crises within their clinical practice and also promote their professional development are emphasized, including normalization of life crises, self-reflection, boundary-setting, and use of peer supervision and consultation.

[Clinico-statistical analysis of arterial hypertension complicated with hypertensive crisis in Moscow in 2005-2009].

PubMed

Gaponova, N I; Plavunov, N F; Tereshchenko, S N; Baratashvili, V L; Abdurakhmanov, V R; Komissarenko, I A; Filippov, D V; Podkopaev, D V

2011-01-01

Clinicostatistical analysis of arterial hypertension complicated with hypertensive crisis using data of Moscow A.S.Puchkov Station of Urgent and Emergent Medical Aid revealed 14% rise in number of hypertensive crises during the period from 2005 to 2009. Number of hypertensive crises increased among persons of young age (18-35 years). Frequency of cerebrovascular complications of hypertensive crises was age dependent with maximal values among men aged 36-74 years and women older than 75 years.

Health workforce and governance: the crisis in Nigeria.

PubMed

Adeloye, Davies; David, Rotimi Adedeji; Olaogun, Adenike Ayobola; Auta, Asa; Adesokan, Adedapo; Gadanya, Muktar; Opele, Jacob Kehinde; Owagbemi, Oluwafemi; Iseolorunkanmi, Alexander

2017-05-12

In Nigeria, several challenges have been reported within the health sector, especially in training, funding, employment, and deployment of the health workforce. We aimed to review recent health workforce crises in the Nigerian health sector to identify key underlying causes and provide recommendations toward preventing and/or managing potential future crises in Nigeria. We conducted a scoping literature search of PubMed to identify studies on health workforce and health governance in Nigeria. A critical analysis, with extended commentary, on recent health workforce crises (2010-2016) and the health system in Nigeria was conducted. The Nigerian health system is relatively weak, and there is yet a coordinated response across the country. A number of health workforce crises have been reported in recent times due to several months' salaries owed, poor welfare, lack of appropriate health facilities and emerging factions among health workers. Poor administration and response across different levels of government have played contributory roles to further internal crises among health workers, with different factions engaged in protracted supremacy challenge. These crises have consequently prevented optimal healthcare delivery to the Nigerian population. An encompassing stakeholders' forum in the Nigerian health sector remain essential. The national health system needs a solid administrative policy foundation that allows coordination of priorities and partnerships in the health workforce and among various stakeholders. It is hoped that this paper may prompt relevant reforms in health workforce and governance in Nigeria toward better health service delivery in the country.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumasaka, Y.

The author analyzed the slowdown in productivity growth since the first oil crisis for about ten industrial sectors in both Japan and the USA and also compared the similarities and differences of their economic performances from the two oil crises. It is assumed that the increase in energy prices was the main cause of the slowdown in productivity growth. The productivity experiences from the two oil crises through the shift of factor price frontier, which was obtained from the cost function, was analyzed. The two oil crises had much responsibility for the slowdown in productivity growth since 1973. However, themore » effects of the oil crises on production were quite different not only among industrial sectors but also between Japan and the USA. The mining sector suffered from the two oil crises most severely in both countries. The Japanese transportation and communication sector and the US communication sector suffered from them least severely. Also studied was the learning effect from the first oil crisis for the Japanese manufacturing and the US commercial sectors. The reason why most of Japanese industrial sectors managed the second oil crisis relatively well was due to the downward flexibility of their real wages during the second oil crisis.« less

[Crises of trust].

PubMed

Chen, Thai-Form; Tseng, Hsing-Chau

2006-02-01

Extensive media coverage is warning of a crisis of trust that has emerged as a serious issue in our society. This article explores the meaning of "crisis," concepts of crisis management, mechanisms for building trust, and the underlying significance of trust and distrust. Evidence is adduced to testify to the erosion of trust and factors in our society that reflect the potential for crises of trust. Organizational decision makers, including hospital managers, are urged to identify and reflect upon weaknesses in their organizations in order that remedial action can be taken to preempt such crises.

The Defense Science Board 1999 Summer Study Task Force on 21st Century Defense Technology Strategies. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-11-01

C17 C130 + $2B upgrade SSTOL VTOL Advanced VTOL 6060120150 Vehicle wt. (tons) Ktons 2015 26 U.S. military dominance in future crises . It is also a...improvement between crises . A “pick-up” approach to C4ISR systems is not effective for today’s complex contingencies, yet it has become the norm. Instead...demands during crises and to stress imposed on the system by adversaries. The infrastructure must allow information to be distributed to and from any

How economic crises affect alcohol consumption and alcohol-related health problems: a realist systematic review.

PubMed

de Goeij, Moniek C M; Suhrcke, Marc; Toffolutti, Veronica; van de Mheen, Dike; Schoenmakers, Tim M; Kunst, Anton E

2015-04-01

Economic crises are complex events that affect behavioral patterns (including alcohol consumption) via opposing mechanisms. With this realist systematic review, we aimed to investigate evidence from studies of previous or ongoing crises on which mechanisms (How?) play a role among which individuals (Whom?). Such evidence would help understand and predict the potential impact of economic crises on alcohol consumption. Medical, psychological, social, and economic databases were used to search for peer-reviewed qualitative or quantitative empirical evidence (published January 1, 1990-May 1, 2014) linking economic crises or stressors with alcohol consumption and alcohol-related health problems. We included 35 papers, based on defined selection criteria. From these papers, we extracted evidence on mechanism(s), determinant, outcome, country-level context, and individual context. We found 16 studies that reported evidence completely covering two behavioral mechanisms by which economic crises can influence alcohol consumption and alcohol-related health problems. The first mechanism suggests that psychological distress triggered by unemployment and income reductions can increase drinking problems. The second mechanism suggests that due to tighter budget constraints, less money is spent on alcoholic beverages. Across many countries, the psychological distress mechanism was observed mainly in men. The tighter budget constraints mechanism seems to play a role in all population subgroups across all countries. For the other three mechanisms (i.e., deterioration in the social situation, fear of losing one's job, and increased non-working time), empirical evidence was scarce or absent, or had small to moderate coverage. This was also the case for important influential contextual factors described in our initial theoretical framework. This realist systematic review suggests that among men (but not among women), the net impact of economic crises will be an increase in harmful drinking. Such a different net impact between men and women could potentially contribute to growing gender-related health inequalities during a crisis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deferred School Maintenance Creates National Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geiger, Philip E.

2002-01-01

Describes the cost and causes of the school maintenance "crises"; lists seven questions to determine if a school district has a quality maintenance program; describes consequences of deferred school maintenance in Yuma (Arizona) Union High School District. (PKP)

The benefits of flexible team interaction during crises.

PubMed

Stachowski, Alicia A; Kaplan, Seth A; Waller, Mary J

2009-11-01

Organizations increasingly rely on teams to respond to crises. While research on team effectiveness during nonroutine events is growing, naturalistic studies examining team behaviors during crises are relatively scarce. Furthermore, the relevant literature offers competing theoretical rationales concerning effective team response to crises. In this article, the authors investigate whether high- versus average-performing teams can be distinguished on the basis of the number and complexity of their interaction patterns. Using behavioral observation methodology, the authors coded the discrete verbal and nonverbal behaviors of 14 nuclear power plant control room crews as they responded to a simulated crisis. Pattern detection software revealed systematic differences among crews in their patterns of interaction. Mean comparisons and discriminant function analysis indicated that higher performing crews exhibited fewer, shorter, and less complex interaction patterns. These results illustrate the limitations of standardized response patterns and highlight the importance of team adaptability. Implications for future research and for team training are included.

Assessing Chaos in Sickle Cell Anemia Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Wesley; Le Floch, Francois

2006-11-01

Recent developments in sickle cell research and blood flow modeling allow for new interpretations of the sickle cell crises. With an appropriate set of theoretical and empirical equations describing the dynamics of the red cells in their environment, and the response of the capillaries to major changes in the rheology, a complete mathematical system has been derived. This system of equations is believed to be of major importance to provide new and significant insight into the causes of the disease and related crises. With simulations, it has been proven that the system transition from a periodic solution to a chaotic one, which illustrates the onset of crises from a regular blood flow synchronized with the heart beat. Moreover, the analysis of the effects of various physiological parameters exposes the potential to control chaotic solutions, which, in turn, could lead to the creation of new and more effective treatments for sickle cell anemia. .

The synergy of the refugee crisis and the financial crisis in Greece: Impact on mental health.

PubMed

Anagnostopoulos, Dimitris C; Giannakopoulos, George; Christodoulou, Nikos G

2017-06-01

The current global financial crisis that started in 2008 resulted in a significant decline in global trade, slowing/reversing economic growth worldwide, and a dramatic increase in public sector debt. At the same time, the global migrant/refugee crisis has reached extreme rates, with millions of people being forced to abandon their homes and communities because of war, political violence or related threats. There is a broad consensus about the deleterious consequences of these crises on psychological well-being, depression, anxiety disorders, insomnia, alcohol abuse and suicidal behavior. Although the separate consequences of economic recession and immigration are extensively discussed in previous research, we know very little about the processes through which the intersection of economic crisis and migrant crisis contributes to the vulnerabilities of natives and migrants during these crises. Of particular concern is the status of children, adolescents and their families, who constitute one of the most vulnerable groups in society. To discuss the contexts that economic and migrant crises shape and suggest possible effects of this intersection on mental health risks, especially among children, adolescents and their families, through reflecting on the recent experience in Greece. Review of the literature and critical analysis of the effects of the confluent crises. The interactive effects of these two crises need further exploration. Novel and diverse models of psychological understanding need to be developed in order to manage the effects of the confluent crises. The role of mental health professionals is crucial in this respect, offering culturally flexible, accommodating and empathetic approaches, allowing healing and acceptance in the face of adversity.

Acute renal proximal tubule alterations during induced metabolic crises in a mouse model of glutaric aciduria type 1.

PubMed

Thies, Bastian; Meyer-Schwesinger, Catherine; Lamp, Jessica; Schweizer, Michaela; Koeller, David M; Ullrich, Kurt; Braulke, Thomas; Mühlhausen, Chris

2013-10-01

The metabolic disorder glutaric aciduria type 1 (GA1) is caused by deficiency of the mitochondrial glutaryl-CoA dehydrogenase (GCDH), leading to accumulation of the pathologic metabolites glutaric acid (GA) and 3-hydroxyglutaric acid (3OHGA) in blood, urine and tissues. Affected patients are prone to metabolic crises developing during catabolic conditions, with an irreversible destruction of striatal neurons and a subsequent dystonic-dyskinetic movement disorder. The pathogenetic mechanisms mediated by GA and 3OHGA have not been fully characterized. Recently, we have shown that GA and 3OHGA are translocated through membranes via sodium-dependent dicarboxylate cotransporter (NaC) 3, and organic anion transporters (OATs) 1 and 4. Here, we show that induced metabolic crises in Gcdh(-/-) mice lead to an altered renal expression pattern of NaC3 and OATs, and the subsequent intracellular GA and 3OHGA accumulation. Furthermore, OAT1 transporters are mislocalized to the apical membrane during metabolic crises accompanied by a pronounced thinning of proximal tubule brush border membranes. Moreover, mitochondrial swelling and increased excretion of low molecular weight proteins indicate functional tubulopathy. As the data clearly demonstrate renal proximal tubule alterations in this GA1 mouse model during induced metabolic crises, we propose careful evaluation of renal function in GA1 patients, particularly during acute crises. Further studies are needed to investigate if these findings can be confirmed in humans, especially in the long-term outcome of affected patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

State network approach to characteristics of financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Xiao, Qin; Yang, Huijie; Wu, Guolin

2018-02-01

Extensive works have reported that a financial crisis can induce significant changes to topological structure of a stock network constructed with cross-correlations between stocks. But there are still some problems to be answered, such as what is the relationship between different crises in history and how to classify them? In the present work, we propose a new network-based solution to extract and display the relationships between the crises. The Dow Jones stock market is investigated as a typical example. The cross-correlation matrix between stocks is used to measure the state of stock market, called state matrix. All the states cluster into six sub-categories. A state network is constructed further to display the relationships between all the states, which contains a total of nine communities. It is found that three crises C , D and E (refer to the Lehman's bankruptcy in 2008, the Euro-zone and International Monetary Fund decide the first bailout for Greece in 2010, and the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011, respectively) belong to a specific sub-category and cluster in a single community. The mid-stage of C is closely linked with E, while the other stages with D. The other two crises A and B (refer to the financial crisis in Asia in 1997, and the burst of "dot-com bubble" in 2002, respectively) belong to another sub-category and gather in a corner of another single community. A and B are linked directly with C and D by two edges. By this way, we give a clear picture of the relationships between the crises.

The Uses of Crisis: Taking the Tide at the Flood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerchner, Charles T.; Schuster, Jack H.

1982-01-01

Crises can, under certain conditions, be transformed into instruments of organizational good. Undergoing crisis in an organization--calling attention to problems and labeling them as crises--may be a preferable management strategy to coping with prolonged periods of shrinking resources. (MLW)

An Information-Processing Model of Crisis Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Egelhoff, William G.; Sen, Falguni

1992-01-01

Develops a contingency model for managing a variety of corporate crises. Views crisis management as an information-processing situation and organizations that must cope with crisis as information-processing systems. Attempts to fit appropriate information-processing mechanisms to different categories of crises. (PRA)

Predicting Intracranial Pressure and Brain Tissue Oxygen Crises in Patients With Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Myers, Risa B; Lazaridis, Christos; Jermaine, Christopher M; Robertson, Claudia S; Rusin, Craig G

2016-09-01

To develop computer algorithms that can recognize physiologic patterns in traumatic brain injury patients that occur in advance of intracranial pressure and partial brain tissue oxygenation crises. The automated early detection of crisis precursors can provide clinicians with time to intervene in order to prevent or mitigate secondary brain injury. A retrospective study was conducted from prospectively collected physiologic data. intracranial pressure, and partial brain tissue oxygenation crisis events were defined as intracranial pressure of greater than or equal to 20 mm Hg lasting at least 15 minutes and partial brain tissue oxygenation value of less than 10 mm Hg for at least 10 minutes, respectively. The physiologic data preceding each crisis event were used to identify precursors associated with crisis onset. Multivariate classification models were applied to recorded data in 30-minute epochs of time to predict crises between 15 and 360 minutes in the future. The neurosurgical unit of Ben Taub Hospital (Houston, TX). Our cohort consisted of 817 subjects with severe traumatic brain injury. Our algorithm can predict the onset of intracranial pressure crises with 30-minute advance warning with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 using only intracranial pressure measurements and time since last crisis. An analogous algorithm can predict the start of partial brain tissue oxygenation crises with 30-minute advanced warning with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. Our algorithms provide accurate and timely predictions of intracranial hypertension and tissue hypoxia crises in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Almost all of the information needed to predict the onset of these events is contained within the signal of interest and the time since last crisis.

Vulnerability of countries to food-production crises propagating in the virtual water trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, S.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2015-12-01

In recent years, the international trade of food and agricultural commodities has undergone a marked increase of exchanged volumes and an expansion of the trade network. This globalization of trade has both positive and negative effects, but the interconnectedness and external dependency of countries generate complex dynamics which are often difficult to understand and model. In this study we consider the volume of water used for the production of agricultural commodities, virtually exchanged among countries through commodity trade, i.e. the virtual water trade. Then, we set up a parsimonious mechanistic model describing the propagation, into the global trade network, of food-production crises generated locally by a social, economic or environmental event (such as war, economic crisis, drought, pest). The model, accounting for the network structure and the virtual water balance of all countries, bases on rules derived from observed virtual water flows and on data-based and statistically verified assumption. It is also tested on real case studies that prove its capability to capture the main features of crises propagation. The model is then employed as the basis for the development of an index of country vulnerability, measuring the exposure of countries to crises propagating in the virtual water trade network. Results of the analysis are discussed within the context of socio-economic and environmental conditions of countries, showing that not only water-scarce, but also wealthy and globalized countries, are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis for the period 1986-2011 reveals that the global average vulnerability has strongly increased over time, confirming the increased exposure of countries to external crises which may occur in the virtual water trade network.

LRPPRC mutations cause a phenotypically distinct form of Leigh syndrome with cytochrome c oxidase deficiency.

PubMed

Debray, François-Guillaume; Morin, Charles; Janvier, Annie; Villeneuve, Josée; Maranda, Bruno; Laframboise, Rachel; Lacroix, Jacques; Decarie, Jean-Claude; Robitaille, Yves; Lambert, Marie; Robinson, Brian H; Mitchell, Grant A

2011-03-01

The natural history of all known patients with French-Canadian Leigh disease (Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean cytochrome c oxidase deficiency, MIM220111, SLSJ-COX), the largest known cohort of patients with a genetically homogeneous, nuclear encoded congenital lactic acidosis, was studied. 55 of 56 patients were homozygous for the A354V mutation in LRPPRC. One was a genetic compound (A354V/C1277Xdel8). Clinical features included developmental delay, failure to thrive, characteristic facial appearance and, in 90% of patients, acute crises that have not previously been detailed, either metabolic (fulminant lactic acidosis) and/or neurological (Leigh syndrome and/or stroke-like episodes). Survival ranged from 5 days to >30 years. 46/56 patients (82%) died, at a median age of 1.6 years. Of 73 crises, 38 (52%) were fatal. The immediate causes of death were multiple organ failure and/or Leigh disease. Major predictors of mortality during crises (p<0.005) were hyperglycaemia, hepatic cytolysis, and altered consciousness at admission. Compared to a group of SURF1-deficient Leigh syndrome patients assembled from the literature, SLSJ-COX is distinct by the occurrence of metabolic crises, leading to earlier and higher mortality (p=0.001). SLSJ-COX is clinically distinct, with acute fatal acidotic crises on a backdrop of chronic moderate developmental delay and hyperlactataemia. Leigh syndrome is common. Stroke-like episodes can occur. The Leigh syndrome of SLSJ-COX differs from that of SURF1-related COX deficiency. SLSJ-COX has a different spectrum of associated abnormalities, acidotic crises being particularly suggestive of LRPPRC related Leigh syndrome. Even among A354V homozygotes, pronounced differences in survival and severity occur, showing that other genetic and/or environmental factors can influence outcome.

Employee Communication during Crises: The Effects of Stress on Information Processing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pincus, J. David; Acharya, Lalit

Based on multidisciplinary research findings, this report proposes an information processing model of employees' response to highly stressful information environments arising during organizational crises. The introduction stresses the importance of management's handling crisis communication with employees skillfully. The second section points out…

Gender and Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schultz, Beatrice, Ed.

1986-01-01

Topics discussed include: how men and women conceive and manage crises in romantic relationships; differences in how men and women handle crises in an organizational setting; the common talk men make about their relationships; the forces that shape women's relationships with men; and the priorities for future studies. (RM)

Episodic processes, invasion and faunal mosaics in evolutionary and ecological time

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Episodes of ecological perturbation and faunal turnover represent crises for global biodiversity and have occurred periodically across Earth history on a continuum linking deep evolutionary and shallow ecological time. Major extinction events and biodiversity crises across the 540 milion years of th...

Mental Health Aspects of Responding to Campus Crises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Christopher; Sharma, Micky M.

2016-01-01

Tragedy can strike a college campus in unpredictable and often horrific ways that may lead to traumatic responses for individuals and the entire campus community. Crises on campus demand an appropriate response to support the community, provide assistance to affected individuals and guide healing efforts.

Strategies for Crises Prevention/Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webber, Glen R.

Crises intervention and prevention techniques developed by the Echo Glen Children's Center school in Washington are listed here, along with a description of climate improvement and problem-solving methods developed by the school's staff. The students in this special residential school are emotionally disturbed or socially maladjusted delinquent…

The role of motivation, responsibility, and integrative complexity in crisis escalation: comparative studies of war and peace crises.

PubMed

Winter, David G

2007-05-01

Drawing on D. G. Winter's (1993) comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the author identified 8 paired crises (1 escalating to war, 1 peacefully resolved). Documents (diplomatic messages, speeches, official media commentary) from each crisis were scored for power, affiliation, and achievement motivation; text measures of responsibility and activity inhibition; and integrative complexity. Aggregated effect-size results show that war crises had significantly higher levels of power motivation and responsibility, whereas peace crises showed trends toward higher integrative complexity and achievement motivation. Follow-up analyses suggested that these results are robust with respect to both sides in a crisis, type of material scored, and historical time. The power motive results extend previous findings, but the responsibility results suggest that responsibility plays a paradoxical role in war. Future research directions are sketched, and the role of psychological content analysis in monitoring the danger of war is discussed. ((c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises.

PubMed

Sands, Peter; El Turabi, Anas; Saynisch, Philip A; Dzau, Victor J

2016-11-12

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Unfinished Revolution: Einstein's revenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beichler, James

2007-04-01

Thomas Kuhn defined the characteristics of scientific revolutions based upon his knowledge of the first and second Scientific Revolutions. He concluded that such revolutions are the result of crises in science. However, he missed some important clues of how revolutions develop. Instead of looking at crises, we should look at the major trends in scientific and human thought prior to the revolutions and then we could gain a better understanding of how scientific revolutions emerge from the normal course of scientific evolution. Instead of defining revolutions by the crises that precede them, revolutions actually emerge from the successes of previous science while each revolution contains the seeds for the next revolution that follows. These seeds eventually grow into the crises that trigger revolutions. Under these circumstances, it can be shown that the space-time revolution of relativity theory was never completed, thus laying the foundations for the next revolution in science. Knowing this, we can determine if we have we already entered the pre-revolutionary period of the Third Scientific Revolution.

Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

PubMed

Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

2016-09-01

The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A model of international financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaizoji, Taisei

2001-10-01

This paper proposes a model of international financial crises that is based on the statistical mechanics. In our model the international stock market is composed of two groups of traders mutually influencing each other with respect to their decision behavior, and financial contagion between markets occurs as a result of attempts by traders in the domestic market to imitate the behavior of traders who participate into exchange in a foreign market. This provides a channel through which a crisis in one market such as contemporaneous stock market crashes can be transmitted to other markets. We show that the model can explain the stylized facts characterizing periods of recent international financial crises.

Community Crisis Intervention; A Training Manual.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batson, Ruth; Peters, Lyda

This manual is designed to help community mental health workers to intervene effectively in community crises, particularly school desegregation. The rationale for involving mental health personnel in community crises is explained. The need for expertise among such workers is emphasized, and strategies for gaining this expertise are outlined. Also…

Intercultural Competence in Education, Counselling and Psychotherapy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portera, Agostino

2014-01-01

The present era of globalization, interdependence and multicultural societies has brought about both opportunities and crises in educational institutions. Especially schools and families seem to be unable to cope with such revolutionary changes. The crises also concern all fields involved in maintaining social welfare, including counselling and…

Estimating Groundwater Development area in Jianan Plain using Standardized Groundwater Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Chang Hsiang; Haw, Lee Cheng

2017-04-01

Taiwan has been facing severe water crises in recent years owing to the effects of extreme weather conditions. Changes in precipitation patterns have also made the drought phenomenon increasingly prominent, which has indirectly affected groundwater recharge. Hence, in the present study, long-term monitoring data were collected from the study area of the Jianan plain. The standardized groundwater index (SGI) and was then used to analyse the region's drought characteristics. To analyse the groundwater level by using SGI, making SGI180 groundwater level be the medium water crises, and SGI360 groundwater level be the extreme water crises. Through the different water crises signal in SGI180 and SGI360, we divide groundwater in Jianan plain into two sections. Thereby the water crises indicators establishing groundwater level standard line in Jianan Plain, then using the groundwater level standard line to find the study area where could be groundwater development area in Jianan plain. Taking into account relatively more water scarcity in dry season, so the study screen out another emergency backup groundwater development area, but the long-term groundwater development area is still as a priority development area. After finding suitable locations, groundwater modeling systems(GMS) software is used to simulate our sites to evaluate development volume. Finally, the result of study will help the government to grasp the water shortage situation immediately and solve the problem of water resources deployment.

Identifying the causes, prevention and management of crises in dementia. An online survey of stakeholders.

PubMed

Ledgerd, Ritchard; Hoe, Juanita; Hoare, Zoë; Devine, Mike; Toot, Sandeep; Challis, David; Orrell, Martin

2016-06-01

Crisis situations in dementia can lead to hospital admission or institutionalisation. Offering immediate interventions may help avoid admission, whilst stabilising measures can help prevent future crises. Our objective was to identify the main causes of crisis and interventions to treat or prevent crisis in persons with dementia based on different stakeholder perspectives. An online questionnaire was developed to identify the causes of crisis and appropriate interventions in a crisis. Participants included people with dementia, family carers and staff working in health and social care, including emergency and voluntary sectors, and academia. The results ranked the main causes of crisis, interventions that can prevent a crisis and interventions that can be useful in a crisis. Wandering, falls and infection were highly rated as risk factors for crises across all stakeholder groups. Consumers rated aggression as less important but severity of memory impairment as much more important than the other groups did. Education and support for family carers and home care staff were highly valued for preventing crises. Well-trained home care staff, communication equipment, emergency contacts and access to respite were highly valued for managing crises. We identified triggers and interventions that different stakeholders see as important for crisis in dementia. Recognition of these may be critical to planning effective and accepted support and care for people with dementia. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unemployment and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone: A k-means- r analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, João

2017-09-01

Some southern countries in Europe, together with Ireland, were particularly affected by the sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone and were obliged to implement tough corrective measures which proved to be very recessive in nature. As a result, not only GDP declined but unemployment jumped to very high levels as well. This paper uses a modified version of k-means (restricted k-means) to analyze the clustering of the Eurozone countries during the recent sovereign debt crisis, combining monthly data on unemployment and government bond yield rates. Our method shows that the separation of southern Europe from the other Eurozone is not necessarily a good characterization of this area before the crisis but the group of externally assisted countries plus Italy gains consistence as the crisis evolved, although there is no perfect homogeneity in this group, since the problems they faced, the type of response requested, the speed of reaction to the crisis and the lasting effects were not the same for all these countries.

Dynamic Evolution of Financial Network and its Relation to Economic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ya-Chun; Wei, Zong-Wen; Wang, Bing-Hong

2013-02-01

The static topology properties of financial networks have been widely investigated since the work done by Mantegna, yet their dynamic evolution with time is little considered. In this paper, we comprehensively study the dynamic evolution of financial network by a sliding window technique. The vertices and edges of financial network are represented by the stocks from S&P500 components and correlations between pairs of daily returns of price fluctuation, respectively. Furthermore, the duration of stock price fluctuation, spanning from January 4, 1985 to September 14, 2009, makes us to carefully observe the relation between the dynamic topological properties and big financial crashes. The empirical results suggest that the financial network has the robust small-world property when the time evolves, and the topological structure drastically changes when the big financial crashes occur. This correspondence between the dynamic evolution of financial network and big financial crashes may provide a novel view to understand the origin of economic crisis.

Three Campus Crises: Lessons for Administrators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothman, Michael

1992-01-01

In October 1989-October 1991, Mills College (California) faced three crises: an earthquake; a strike over plans to convert to a coeducational institution; and a devastating fire in the area. The college has learned to focus its structural, human, political, and symbolic frames of reference; communicate; plan; consider the public; and develop…

Campus Communications in the Age of Crises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Patricia

2007-01-01

Recent catastrophes have brought about numerous critiques and changes to campus communications. In this article, the author shares the lessons she has learned from the crises she experienced during her 18 years of being the president of Trinity (Washington) University. Furthermore, Joan Hinde Stewart, president of Hamilton College, adds her…

Five Potential Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Futurist, 1984

1984-01-01

Five areas that have great potential for becoming crises in the future are described: a warming of the earth's climate, changing weather patterns and growing seasons; water shortage; the decay of the physical infrastructure, e.g., decay of roads, bridges; breakdown of the international monetary and trading system; and nuclear warfare. (Author/RM)

Preparing for School Crises: Administrator Perceptions on Supports for Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brophy, Chelsey M.; Maras, Melissa A.; Wang, Ze

2015-01-01

Traumatic events and crises involving schools and children often become high-profile occurrences; however, little attention is given to teachers and how they cope with crisis. The purpose of this study was to investigate administrators' perceptions of including additional support for teachers in school crisis policies. Specifically, the study…

Learning through Crisis: The Educator's Role

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Lori D.

2008-01-01

One of the most pressing challenges when facilitating a conversation on human crises is the normalizing push to move forward and avoid living in the past. Unfortunately, when conversations about human crises are ignored or rushed through, the learning process is stunted. Students lose a valuable opportunity to develop empathy and cultural…

The Suppression of Ethical Dispositions through Managerial Governmentality: A Habitus Crisis in Australian Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zipin, Lew; Brennan, Marie

2003-01-01

"Fiscal" and other so-called "crises" in Australian universities are more fundamentally, it is argued in this article, crises of government decision and "governmentality". Using an illustrative "morality tale" drawn from their working knowledge of the Australian university sector, the authors take a…

Transdisciplinary Collaborations for Sustainability Education: Institutional and Intragroup Challenges and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Tina Lynn

2015-01-01

This article takes as its point of departure the many converging crises of sustainability and the responsibility of higher education institutions and faculty members to participate in mitigating these crises to any extent possible. The author characterizes sustainability education as transdisciplinary praxis, explores the institutional and…

Panel 2.17: private commercial sector partnerships for health action in crises.

PubMed

Sundnes, Knut Ole; Sannerkvist, Milan; Hedger, Philip; Woodworth, Brent; Hyre, Anne; Cuddyre, Terrence; Waldman, Ronald

2005-01-01

This is a summary of the presentations and discussion of Panel 2.17, Private Commercial Sector Partnerships for Health Action in Crises of the Conference, Health Aspects of the Tsunami Disaster in Asia, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Phuket, Thailand, 04-06 May 2005. The topics discussed included issues related to private sector partnerships for health action in crises as pertain to the responses to the damage created by the Tsunami. It is presented in the following sections: (1) key questions; (2) issues and challenges; (3) lessons learned; (4) what was done well?; (5) what could have been done better?; and (6) conclusions and recommendations.

The Nigerian State and Global Economic Crises: Socio-Political Implications and Policy Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olaopa, O. R.; Ogundari, I. O.; Akindele, S. T.; Hassan, O. M.

2012-01-01

This article discusses how economic reforms, as a reaction to the effects of the global financial crises, have intensified popular unrests and redefined the composition, interests, and socio-economic and political attitudes of Nigeria's increasingly complex social strata. We relied basically on secondary data to analyze some of the fundamental…

Risks and crises for healthcare providers: the impact of cloud computing.

PubMed

Glasberg, Ronald; Hartmann, Michael; Draheim, Michael; Tamm, Gerrit; Hessel, Franz

2014-01-01

We analyze risks and crises for healthcare providers and discuss the impact of cloud computing in such scenarios. The analysis is conducted in a holistic way, taking into account organizational and human aspects, clinical, IT-related, and utilities-related risks as well as incorporating the view of the overall risk management.

Before Crisis Hits: Building a Strategic Crisis Plan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Larry L.; Millar, Dan P.

This guide offers suggestions to college administrators for dealing with a variety of emergency or crisis situations that could affect a community college's effectiveness. The authors used the Institute for Crisis Management's (ICM) four types of crises in higher education as the framework for the guide. The four types of crises are: (1) sudden;…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffries, C.; Perez, J.

For a driven nonlinear oscillator we report direct evidence for three cases of an interior crisis of the attractor, as conjectured by Grebogi, Ott, and Yorke. These crises are sudden and discontinuous changes in the attractor, observed directly from bifurcation diagrams and attractor diagrams (Poincare sections) in real time. The crises arise from intersection of an unstable orbit with the chaotic attractor.

Planning for a Better Future: California 2025. 2011 Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Public Policy Institute of California, 2011

2011-01-01

California's current economic and fiscal realities make nonpartisan, objective information on the state's future challenges all the more critical. Understandably, the search is on for immediate solutions to the unprecedented crises people face today. But if the present crises make policymakers shelve long-term planning, the result may be an even…

American Naval Policy, Strategy, Plans and Operations in the Second Decade of the Twenty first Century

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

13 Maritime safety ...deterrence, ballistic missile defense, deterrence of conventional crises and war (through naval readiness and engagement), maritime safety operations...confidence-building measure and to avoid unwanted crises.55 Maritime safety This an area that is primarily the domain of the world’s Coast Guards

Prevention of Targeted School Violence by Responding to Students' Psychosocial Crises: The NETWASS Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leuschner, Vincenz; Fiedler, Nora; Schultze, Martin; Ahlig, Nadine; Göbel, Kristin; Sommer, Friederike; Scholl, Johanna; Cornell, Dewey; Scheithauer, Herbert

2017-01-01

The standardized, indicated school-based prevention program "Networks Against School Shootings" combines a threat assessment approach with a general model of prevention of emergency situations in schools through early intervention in student psychosocial crises and training teachers to recognize warning signs of targeted school violence.…

Marketing Crises in Tourism: Communication Strategies in the United States and Spain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez-Herrero, Alfonso; Pratt, Cornelius B.

1998-01-01

Compares crisis-response strategies of marketing-communication professionals in tourism organizations (TOs) in the United States and Spain. Reports the extent to which they use proven crisis-management strategies. Indicates significant differences between the countries' TOs in both their extant plans for responding to marketing crises and in their…

Crises and Opportunities: The Futures of Scholarly Publishing. ACLS Occasional Paper, No. 57

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alonso, Carlos J.; Davidson, Cathy N.; Unsworth, John M.; Withey, Lynne

2003-01-01

Presented herein are papers presented at a session entitled "Crises and Opportunities: The Future of Scholarly Publishing," from the American Council of Learned Societies (ACLS) Annual Meeting, May 10, 2003. Four speakers approached this topic from different standpoints: as leaders of learned societies, as senior university officials, from the…

Summoning Spectres: Crises and Their Construction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, John; Newman, Janet

2010-01-01

The construction of crises is a key analytical and political issue. This paper examines what is at stake in the processes and practices of construction, responding to the arguments made in Andrew Gamble's "The spectres at the feast" (2009). We suggest that there are three areas of critical concern: first, that too little attention has…

Supporting Students with Disabilities during School Crises: A Teacher's Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, Laura S.; Embury, Dusty Columbia; Jones, Ruth E.; Yssel, Nina

2014-01-01

Most schools have crisis plans to support student safety, but few plans address the complex needs of students with disabilities. School supports should include analysis of school plans and student strengths and needs to ensure that students with disabilities have the best opportunity to be safe in school crises. Recommendations include developing…

Variations of Young Germans' Informal Conceptions of Financial and Economic Crises Phenomena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aprea, Carmela; Sappa, Viviana

2014-01-01

The development of a sound understanding of financial and economic crises phenomena must be considered an important goal within the scope of citizenship, economic and social science education. As with every other educational endeavour, this intention requires solid information about what informal conceptions learners hold about this specific…

Recovery from Large-Scale Crises: Guidelines for Crisis Teams and Administrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Communique, 2018

2018-01-01

The United States has recently experienced numerous large-scale crises that resulted in high death tolls and extensive property damage. Critical incidents such as suicide contagion, natural disasters, or mass casualty events have the potential to cause traumatic reactions and significantly affect children's sense of safety and security. School…

Using Crises, Feedback, and Fading for Online Task Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bokhove, Christian

2014-01-01

A recent discussion involves the elaboration on possible design principles for sequences of tasks. This paper builds on three principles, as described by Bokhove and Drijvers (2012a). A model with ingredients of crises, feedback and fading of sequences with near-similar tasks can be used to address both procedural fluency and conceptual…

The Crises and Freedoms of Researching Your Own Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearce, Caroline

2010-01-01

There has been much work highlighting the benefits of autoethnographic research yet little acknowledgement of the demands researching your own life makes on the emotional and mental wellbeing of the researcher. This paper explores the consequences that can arise as a result of autoethnographic research by detailing the crises involved in…

A systematic literature review of the quality of evidence for injury and rehabilitation interventions in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Smith, James; Roberts, Bayard; Knight, Abigail; Gosselin, Richard; Blanchet, Karl

2015-11-01

Humanitarian crises continue to pose a significant threat to health; the United Nations estimates that 144 million people are directly affected by conflict or environmental disasters. During most humanitarian crises, surgical and rehabilitative interventions remain a priority. This review assessed the quality of evidence that informs injury and physical rehabilitation interventions in humanitarian crises. Peer-reviewed and grey literature sources were assessed in a systematic manner. Selected papers were evaluated using quality criteria based on a modified version of the STROBE protocol. 46 papers met the inclusion criteria. 63 % of the papers referred to situations of armed conflict, of which the Yugoslav Wars were the most studied crisis context. 59 % of the studies were published since the year 2000. However, only two studies were considered of a high quality. While there is now a greater emphasis on research in this sector, the volume of evidence remains inadequate given the growing number of humanitarian programmes worldwide. Further research is needed to ensure a greater breadth and depth of understanding of the most appropriate interventions in different settings.

Incidence, recurrence and cost of hyperglycaemic crises requiring emergency treatment in Andalusia, Spain.

PubMed

Barranco, R J; Gomez-Peralta, F; Abreu, C; Delgado-Rodriguez, M; Moreno-Carazo, A; Romero, F; de la Cal, M A; Barranco, J M; Pasquel, F J; Umpierrez, G E

2017-07-01

Hyperglycaemic crises (diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state) are medical emergencies in people with diabetes. We aimed to determine their incidence, recurrence and economic impact. An observational study of hyperglycaemic crises cases using the database maintained by the out-of-hospital emergency service, the Healthcare Emergency Public Service (EPES) during 2012. The EPES provides emergency medical services to the total population of Andalusia, Spain (8.5 million inhabitants) and records data on the incidence, resource utilization and cost of out-of-hospital medical care. Direct costs were estimated using public prices for health services updated to 2012. Among 1 137 738 emergency calls requesting medical assistance, 3157 were diagnosed with hyperglycaemic crises by an emergency coordinator, representing 2.9 cases per 1000 persons with diabetes [95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.8 to 3.0]. The incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis was 2.5 cases per 1000 persons with diabetes (95% CI 2.4 to 2.6) and the incidence of hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state was 0.4 cases per 1000 persons with diabetes (95% CI 0.4 to 0.5). In total, 17.7% (n = 440) of people had one or more hyperglycaemic crisis. The estimated total direct cost was €4 662 151, with a mean direct cost per episode of €1476.8 ± 217.8. Hyperglycaemic crises require high resource utilization of emergency medical services and have a significant economic impact on the health system. © 2017 Diabetes UK.

Inefficacy of piracetam in the prevention of painful crises in children and adolescents with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Alvim, R C; Viana, M B; Pires, M A S; Franklin, H M O H; Paula, M J; Brito, A C; Oliveira, T F; Rezende, P V

2005-01-01

Analgesia and hydration remain the only safe treatment for painful crises of sickle cell disease; hydroxyurea is effective, but the toxicity is still a problem. Piracetam is a nootropic drug that has reportedly been effective and non-toxic in sickle cell patients, but most studies were not placebo-controlled and included a small number of patients. The present study evaluated the drug in a double-blind crossed placebo-controlled clinical trial in 73 children and adolescents suffering from moderate to severe painful crises for 13 months. Information regarding frequency and severity of pain was acquired through monthly clinical evaluation, visits and house calls, and 4,300 weekly questionnaires filled out by the patients in their domiciles. A monthly pain score was calculated for each patient. Pain was the most frequent adverse manifestation of the disease stressing its significant bio-psycho-social impact. Although nearly all patients and relatives reported a better clinical course throughout the whole study, the drug was ineffective in the prevention of painful crises. This placebo effect may be ascribed to an unplanned and unsystematic 'cognitive-behavioural' management of the children. The pain score in the second semester of the study - both in the experimental and in the control groups - was significantly smaller than that in the first semester. In conclusion, piracetam was found to be ineffective in the prevention of painful crises; a powerful placebo effect due to adequate patient care was demonstrated. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

Comparing emerging and mature markets during times of crises: A non-extensive statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namaki, A.; Koohi Lai, Z.; Jafari, G. R.; Raei, R.; Tehrani, R.

2013-07-01

One of the important issues in finance and economics for both scholars and practitioners is to describe the behavior of markets, especially during times of crises. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of some mature and emerging markets with a Tsallis entropy framework that is a non-extensive statistical approach based on non-linear dynamics. During the past decade, this technique has been successfully applied to a considerable number of complex systems such as stock markets in order to describe the non-Gaussian behavior of these systems. In this approach, there is a parameter q, which is a measure of deviation from Gaussianity, that has proved to be a good index for detecting crises. We investigate the behavior of this parameter in different time scales for the market indices. It could be seen that the specified pattern for q differs for mature markets with regard to emerging markets. The findings show the robustness of the stated approach in order to follow the market conditions over time. It is obvious that, in times of crises, q is much greater than in other times. In addition, the response of emerging markets to global events is delayed compared to that of mature markets, and tends to a Gaussian profile on increasing the scale. This approach could be very useful in application to risk and portfolio management in order to detect crises by following the parameter q in different time scales.

Evidence on the Effectiveness of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Interventions on Health Outcomes in Humanitarian Crises: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ramesh, Anita; Blanchet, Karl; Ensink, Jeroen H J; Roberts, Bayard

2015-01-01

Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions are amongst the most crucial in humanitarian crises, although the impact of the different WASH interventions on health outcomes remains unclear. To examine the quantity and quality of evidence on WASH interventions on health outcomes in humanitarian crises, as well as evaluate current evidence on their effectiveness against health outcomes in these contexts. A systematic literature review was conducted of primary and grey quantitative literature on WASH interventions measured against health outcomes in humanitarian crises occurring from 1980-2014. Populations of interest were those in resident in humanitarian settings, with a focus on acute crisis and early recovery stages of humanitarian crises in low and middle-income countries. Interventions of interest were WASH-related, while outcomes of interest were health-related. Study quality was assessed via STROBE/CONSORT criteria. Results were analyzed descriptively, and PRISMA reporting was followed. Of 3963 studies initially retrieved, only 6 published studies measured a statistically significant change in health outcome as a result of a WASH intervention. All 6 studies employed point-of-use (POU) water quality interventions, with 50% using safe water storage (SWS) and 35% using household water treatment (HWT). All 6 studies used self-reported diarrhea outcomes, 2 studies also reported laboratory confirmed outcomes, and 2 studies reported health treatment outcomes (e.g. clinical admissions). 1 study measured WASH intervention success in relation to both health and water quality outcomes; 1 study recorded uptake (use of soap) as well as health outcomes. 2 studies were unblinded randomized-controlled trials, while 4 were uncontrolled longitudinal studies. 2 studies were graded as providing high quality evidence; 3 studies provided moderate and 1 study low quality evidence. The current evidence base on the impact of WASH interventions on health outcomes in humanitarian crises is extremely limited, and numerous methodological limitations limit the ability to determine associative, let alone causal, relationships.

Evidence on the Effectiveness of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Interventions on Health Outcomes in Humanitarian Crises: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Ramesh, Anita; Blanchet, Karl; Ensink, Jeroen H. J.; Roberts, Bayard

2015-01-01

Background Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions are amongst the most crucial in humanitarian crises, although the impact of the different WASH interventions on health outcomes remains unclear. Aim To examine the quantity and quality of evidence on WASH interventions on health outcomes in humanitarian crises, as well as evaluate current evidence on their effectiveness against health outcomes in these contexts. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted of primary and grey quantitative literature on WASH interventions measured against health outcomes in humanitarian crises occurring from 1980–2014. Populations of interest were those in resident in humanitarian settings, with a focus on acute crisis and early recovery stages of humanitarian crises in low and middle-income countries. Interventions of interest were WASH-related, while outcomes of interest were health-related. Study quality was assessed via STROBE/CONSORT criteria. Results were analyzed descriptively, and PRISMA reporting was followed. Results Of 3963 studies initially retrieved, only 6 published studies measured a statistically significant change in health outcome as a result of a WASH intervention. All 6 studies employed point-of-use (POU) water quality interventions, with 50% using safe water storage (SWS) and 35% using household water treatment (HWT). All 6 studies used self-reported diarrhea outcomes, 2 studies also reported laboratory confirmed outcomes, and 2 studies reported health treatment outcomes (e.g. clinical admissions). 1 study measured WASH intervention success in relation to both health and water quality outcomes; 1 study recorded uptake (use of soap) as well as health outcomes. 2 studies were unblinded randomized-controlled trials, while 4 were uncontrolled longitudinal studies. 2 studies were graded as providing high quality evidence; 3 studies provided moderate and 1 study low quality evidence. Conclusion The current evidence base on the impact of WASH interventions on health outcomes in humanitarian crises is extremely limited, and numerous methodological limitations limit the ability to determine associative, let alone causal, relationships. PMID:26398228

Piracetam for reducing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises.

PubMed

Al Hajeri, A A; Fedorowicz, Z; Omran, A; Tadmouri, G O

2007-04-18

Sickle cell disease is one of the most common genetic disorders. Sickle cell crises in which irregular and dehydrated cells contribute to blocking of blood vessels are characterised by episodes of pain. Treatment is mainly supportive and symptomatic. In vitro studies with piracetam indicate that it has the potential for inhibition and a reversal of the process of sickling of erythrocytes. To assess the effectiveness of piracetam for reducing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register which comprises of references identified from comprehensive electronic database searches and handsearches of relevant journals and abstract books of conference proceedings. Date of the last search of the Group's Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register: February 2007. Randomised controlled trials comparing orally administered piracetam to placebo or standard care in people, of all ages and both sexes, with sickle cell disease. Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Trial authors were contacted for additional information. Adverse effects data were collected from the trials. Three trials involving 169 participants were included in the review. A limited amount of data addressing some of the primary and some of the secondary outcomes were provided, but data were incomplete and based on unvalidated assumptions used in the evaluation of outcomes. One trial reported a reduction in the number of pain crises and their severity with active intervention than placebo but presented no data to confirm these results. A second trial presented a monthly global pain score based on the number of sickle cell crises and severity of pain but included no separate data for these primary outcomes. Although there was no significant difference between the piracetam and placebo periods for the number of days of hospitalisation (P = 0.87) in one trial, inconsistencies in the criteria necessary for hospitalisation during sickle crises did not permit accurate conclusions to be drawn. Two of the trials reported participant satisfaction with piracetam but provided no details as to how this satisfaction had been assessed. There were no reports of toxicity or adverse effects with piracetam other than one participant who experienced dizziness. The small number of included trials and their poor methodological quality provided insufficient reliable evidence to support the routine use of this medication for preventing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises.

The Crisis Manual for Early Childhood Teachers: How To Handle the Really Difficult Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Karen

More and more teachers report the increasing incidence of crises in children's lives, crises that interfere with the child's ability to learn. Noting that developmentally appropriate curricula must respond to the issues of immediate concern and interest to children, this source book assists teachers in facing difficult issues in the classroom and…

Responding To School Walkout Demonstrations. Lessons Learned From School Crises and Emergencies, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2008

2008-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue examines the incidence of student walkout demonstrations and the various ways in which administrators, school staff, law enforcement, and the community at large can help keep youths…

Chaos Theory as a Model for Managing Issues and Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Priscilla

1996-01-01

Uses chaos theory to model public relations situations in which the salient feature is volatility of public perceptions. Discusses the premises of chaos theory and applies them to issues management, the evolution of interest groups, crises, and rumors. Concludes that chaos theory is useful as an analogy to structure image problems and to raise…

Random Acts of Senseless Video: An Organizational Psychology Perspective on the "Identity Crises" of Corporate Television.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutenko, Gregory

Corporate television suffers from at least two "identity crises": departmental isolation, and the lack of a legitimate identity for the corporate video product itself. Video departments are not usually viewed and accepted by the organizational whole as natural evolutions of a historically defined and behaviorally integrated system. The…

Possible Solutions for Financial Crises of the Private Sector of Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolling, Landrum R.

Our society is at a point where a number of interlocking crises-inflation, ever rising expectations, war, urban problems, youth's discontent-are coming together. Money is needed at every point and the private college cannot rely on the federal government or private sources to save them from financial disaster. The private college can tackle its…

American Naval Policy, Strategy, Plans and Operations in the Second Decade of the Twenty-first Century

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

13 Maritime safety ...defense, deterrence of conventional crises and war (through naval readiness and engagement), maritime safety operations, maritime security...measure and to avoid unwanted crises.55 Maritime safety This an area that is primarily the domain of the world’s Coast Guards, but here too the U.S

Lessons Learned from School Crises and Emergencies, Vol. 1, Issue 2, Fall 2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2006

2006-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. School and student names have been changed to protect identities. Information for this publication was gathered through a series of interviews with school stakeholders involved in the actual incident. This "Lessons Learned" issue…

Past Adolescence, into and across Adulthood: Career Crises and Major Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bakshi, Anuradha J.

2011-01-01

Career-related crises and major decisions, support for these, and job satisfaction were surveyed in 124 varied individuals from Mumbai, India. All participants were in the post-career-entry stage and engaged in paid work; they differed with regard to age (range 18-75 years), sex, marital status, religion, education, occupation, income, and…

Improving Responses to Individual and Family Crises. Learning Guide 10. Project Connect. Linking Self-Family-Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, Inc., Hartford, CT.

This learning guide on improving responses to individual and family crises is part of a series of learning guides developed for competency-based adult consumer and homemaking education programs in community colleges, adult education centers, community centers, and the workplace. Focus is on the connections among personal, family, and job…

School District Policies for Response to Death-Related Crises: Fact or Fiction?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christenberry, Nola J.; Burns, John L.

Findings of a literature review of school policies and procedures for school-based responses to death-related crises are presented in this paper. A rationale and guidelines for policy development and examples of practices for dealing with death-related incidents--such as suicide, homicide, drug overdose, and accidents--are described. Following an…

Bibliography of Selected Literature in the 1970s Related to Crises, Family Stress, Coping and Adaptation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chesser, Barbara

This bibliography of literature from the 1970s related to crises, family stress, coping, and adaptation contains references of particular interest to professionals in the areas of counseling, education, and family social, psychological and health services. The bibliography is divided into 26 categories; references are classified according to major…

Risks and Crises for Healthcare Providers: The Impact of Cloud Computing

PubMed Central

Glasberg, Ronald; Hartmann, Michael; Tamm, Gerrit

2014-01-01

We analyze risks and crises for healthcare providers and discuss the impact of cloud computing in such scenarios. The analysis is conducted in a holistic way, taking into account organizational and human aspects, clinical, IT-related, and utilities-related risks as well as incorporating the view of the overall risk management. PMID:24707207

Gender Inequality and Disabled Inclusivity in Accounting Higher Education and the Accounting Profession during Financial Crises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lodh, Suman; Nandy, Monomita

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors find that, during financial crises, the wage gap between female and male accounting professionals declines and gender inequality in higher education is affected. In addition, less support and lower wages for disabled accounting professionals demotivate disabled students in accounting higher education. Because of budget…

Reacting to Crises: The Risk-Averse Nature of Contemporary American Public Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moran, Peter

2015-01-01

Over the past several decades, numerous arguments have been made advancing the notion that the failings of the public education system in the United States have placed the nation's national security or economic prosperity at risk. This article will examine some of these "crises" and explore how arguments claiming that the shortcomings of…

Identity Crises in Love and at Work: Dispositional Optimism as a Durable Personal Resource

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersson, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Using the 2004 General Social Survey (N = 453), the identity stress process is investigated in terms of crises in intimate relationships and at the workplace. I discuss dispositional optimism as a psychological resource that is relatively independent of the situation and the self, making it ideal for structurally disadvantaged actors and for…

Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.

PubMed

Carvalho, Rui; Buzna, Lubos; Bono, Flavio; Masera, Marcelo; Arrowsmith, David K; Helbing, Dirk

2014-01-01

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

Improving Responses to Individual and Family Crises. Secondary Learning Guide 10. Project Connect. Linking Self-Family-Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, Inc., Hartford, CT.

This competency-based secondary learning guide on improving responses to crises is part of a series that are adaptations of guides developed for adult consumer and homemaking education programs. The guides provide students with experiences that help them learn to do the following: make decisions; use creative approaches to solve problems;…

THE "FREE SPEECH" CRISES AT BERKELEY, 1964-1965--SOME ISSUES FOR SOCIAL AND LEGAL RESEARCH.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LUNSFORD, TERRY F.

AN EXAMINATION WAS MADE OF THE ISSUES AND EVENTS OF THE "FREE SPEECH" CRISES ON THE BERKELEY CAMPUS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IN AN ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR MORE SYSTEMATIC AND DISPASSIONATE STUDY OF CERTAIN ISSUES BEHIND THE STUDENT PROTESTS, AND TO STIMULATE SOCIAL AND LEGAL RESEARCH ON THESE ISSUES. FOLLOWING AN…

Educating Children in the Midst of Health Crises: A Phenomenological Study of Teachers in Children's Hospital Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Johnna N.

2013-01-01

Purpose, Scope, and Method of Study: Hospital school teachers are a unique population of educators highly qualified and experienced in teaching students who are facing health crises. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to describe the lived experience of teaching seriously ill students in the hospital school setting. The study was…

The Continuing Challenge of Racial Conflicts and Crises: Focusing on Education as a Solution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lionel H.; Larsen, Judith; Britt, Ruth S.; Yao, Yao; Brown, Jean P.; Beck, Ryan

2006-01-01

In this first-person paper, educator Dr. Lionel Brown takes a sweeping look at the racial crises that have erupted in his home city of Cincinnati during his lifetime, and proposes that education is the only real, long-term way of addressing and disrupting the repeating pattern of violence. He highlights a selection of current and proposed…

Crisis Management Plans in Higher Education: Commonalities, Attributes, and Perceived Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lott, Mary Keane

2012-01-01

Crisis has remained as prevalent in our lives today as it ever has been, especially in this post-9/11 era. People handle all types of crises, whether personally, professionally or socially. Arguably, people's worldviews after the tragedies of September 11, 2001 have never been the same, including the way they manage and respond to crises. This…

How Prepared Are America's Colleges and Universities for Major Crises? Assessing the State of Crisis Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitroff, Ian I.; Diamond, Michael A.; Alpaslan, Murat C.

2006-01-01

This article outlines a set of recommendations to college and university leaders and governing bodies on how to develop crisis-management systems to ensure that their institutions are as well prepared as possible for a wide range of crises. These recommendations are based, in part, on crisis-management programs developed for various business…

Effect of Dietary Supplements in Reducing Probability of Death for Uremic Crises in Dogs Affected by Chronic Kidney Disease (Masked RCCT)

PubMed Central

Zatelli, Andrea; Pierantozzi, Marco; D'Ippolito, Paola; Bigliati, Mauro; Zini, Eric

2012-01-01

Chitosan and alkalinizing agents can decrease morbidity and mortality in humans with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Whether this holds true in dog is not known. Objective of the study was to determine whether a commercial dietary supplement containing chitosan, phosphate binders, and alkalinizing agents (Renal), compared to placebo, reduces mortality rate due to uremic crises in dogs with spontaneous CKD, fed a renal diet (RD). A masked RCCT was performed including 31 azotemic dogs with spontaneous CKD. Dogs enrolled in the study were randomly allocated to receive RD plus placebo (group A; 15 dogs) or RD plus Renal (group B; 16 dogs). During a first 4-week period, all dogs were fed an RD and then randomized and clinically evaluated up to 44 weeks. The effects of dietary supplements on mortality rate due to uremic crises were assessed. At 44 weeks, compared to group A, dogs in group B had approximately 50% lower mortality rate due to uremic crises (P = 0.015). Dietary supplementation with chitosan, phosphate binders, and alkalinizing agents, along with an RD, is beneficial in reducing mortality rate in dogs with spontaneous CKD. PMID:22593665

How a Stressed Local Public System Copes With People in Psychiatric Crisis

PubMed Central

Wells, Rebecca; La, Elizabeth Holdsworth; Morrissey, Joseph; Hall, Marissa; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Blouin, Rachel

2012-01-01

In order to bolster the public mental health safety net, we must first understand how these systems function on a day-to-day basis. This study explored how individual attributes and organizational interdependencies within one predominantly urban US county affected responses to individuals’ needs during psychiatric crises. We interviewed clinicians and managers within the crisis response network about people at immediate risk of psychiatric hospitalization, what had happened to them during their crises, and factors affecting services provided (N = 94 individuals and 9 agencies). Social network diagrams depicted patterns of referrals between agencies. Iterative coding of interview transcripts was used to contextualize the social network findings. Often, agencies saw crises through to resolution. However, providers also limited the types of people they served, leaving many people in crisis in limbo. This study illustrates how attributes of individuals with mental illness, service providers and their interactions, and state and federal policies intersect to shape the trajectories of individuals during psychiatric crises. Understanding both the structures of current local systems and their contexts may support continued evolution toward a more humane and robust safety net for some of our society’s most vulnerable members. PMID:23065371

[Psychogenic paroxysmal disorders in children].

PubMed

Mulas, F; Morant, A

Paroxystic psychic disorders which imitate organic disorders of the nervous system may have peripheral effects, present as changes in level of consciousness or appear as paroxystic behaviour changes. The types of crises of psychological origin are: tantrums, panic attacks, crises of psychopathic rage, onanism or masturbation, epileptic pseudocrises or pseudoconvulsions and Munchausen's syndrome. In general psychic crises are not frequent in infancy: tantrums are commoner in small children and the other conditions usually occur after puberty or during adolescence. The anamnesis is the most important factor in the correct diagnosis of psychogenic paroxystic disorders. Complementary studies are done in doubtful cases, to rule out different pathological processes which might be causing the paroxystic disorder. Amongst these investigations, we emphasize the importance of the video-EEG for differential diagnosis of paroxystic disorders in children.

Currency crises and the evolution of foreign exchange market: Evidence from minimum spanning tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Wooseok; Lee, Junghoon; Chang, Woojin

2011-02-01

We examined the time series properties of the foreign exchange market for 1990-2008 in relation to the history of the currency crises using the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach and made several meaningful observations about the MST of currencies. First, around currency crises, the mean correlation coefficient between currencies decreased whereas the normalized tree length increased. The mean correlation coefficient dropped dramatically passing through the Asian crisis and remained at the lowered level after that. Second, the Euro and the US dollar showed a strong negative correlation after 1997, implying that the prices of the two currencies moved in opposite directions. Third, we observed that Asian countries and Latin American countries moved away from the cluster center (USA) passing through the Asian crisis and Argentine crisis, respectively.

A new estimate of Ukrainian population losses during the crises of the 1930s and 1940s.

PubMed

Vallin, Jacques; Meslé, France; Adamets, Serguei; Pyrozhkov, Serhii

2002-11-01

Ukraine experienced two very acute demographic crises during the Soviet era: the 1933 famine and the Second World War. While different estimates of total losses have been produced previously, we have tried here to distinguish the specific impact of the crises on mortality from their impact on fertility and migration. Taking into account all existing sources of registered data and estimates, a painstaking reconstruction of annual demographic changes has been produced and complete annual life tables have been computed for the years 1926-59. Life expectancy at birth fell to a level as low as 10 years for females and 7 for males in 1933 and plateaued around 25 for females and 15 for males in the period 1941-44.

Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Rui; Buzna, Lubos; Bono, Flavio; Masera, Marcelo; Arrowsmith, David K.; Helbing, Dirk

2014-01-01

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied. PMID:24621655

A Broadly-Based Training Program in Volcano Hazards Monitoring at the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, D. M.; Bevens, D.

2015-12-01

The Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes, in cooperation with the USGS Volcano Hazards Program at HVO and CVO, offers a broadly based volcano hazards training program targeted toward scientists and technicians from developing nations. The program has been offered for 25 years and provides a hands-on introduction to a broad suite of volcano monitoring techniques, rather than detailed training with just one. The course content has evolved over the life of the program as the needs of the trainees have changed: initially emphasizing very basic monitoring techniques (e.g. precise leveling, interpretation of seismic drum records, etc.) but, as the level of sophistication of the trainees has increased, training in more advanced technologies has been added. Currently, topics of primary emphasis have included volcano seismology and seismic networks; acquisition and modeling of geodetic data; methods of analysis and monitoring of gas geochemistry; interpretation of volcanic deposits and landforms; training in LAHARZ, GIS mapping of lahar risks; and response to and management of volcanic crises. The course also provides training on public outreach, based on CSAV's Hawaii-specific hazards outreach programs, and volcano preparedness and interactions with the media during volcanic crises. It is an intensive eight week course with instruction and field activities underway 6 days per week; it is now offered in two locations, Hawaii Island, for six weeks, and the Cascades volcanoes of the Pacific Northwest, for two weeks, to enable trainees to experience field conditions in both basaltic and continental volcanic environments. The survival of the program for more than two decades demonstrates that a need for such training exists and there has been interaction and contribution to the program by the research community, however broader engagement with the latter continues to present challenges. Some of the reasons for this will be discussed.

Piracetam for reducing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises.

PubMed

Al Hajeri, Amani; Fedorowicz, Zbys

2016-02-12

Sickle cell disease is one of the most common genetic disorders. Sickle cell crises in which irregular and dehydrated cells contribute to blocking of blood vessels are characterised by episodes of pain. Treatment is mainly supportive and symptomatic. In vitro studies with piracetam indicate that it has the potential for inhibition and a reversal of the process of sickling of erythrocytes. This is an update of a previously published Cochrane review. To assess the effectiveness of piracetam for reducing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register which comprises of references identified from comprehensive electronic database searches and handsearches of relevant journals and abstract books of conference proceedings.Last search of the Group's Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register: 21 September 2015. Randomised controlled trials comparing orally administered piracetam to placebo or standard care in people, of all ages and both sexes, with sickle cell disease. Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Trial authors were contacted for additional information. Adverse effects data were collected from the trials. Three trials involving 169 participants were included in the review. A limited amount of data addressing some of the primary and some of the secondary outcomes were provided, but data were incomplete and based on un-validated assumptions used in the evaluation of outcomes. One trial reported a reduction in the number of pain crises and their severity with active intervention than placebo but presented no data to confirm these results. A second trial presented a monthly global pain score based on the number of sickle cell crises and severity of pain but included no separate data for these primary outcomes. Although there was no significant difference between the piracetam and placebo periods for the number of days of hospitalisation (P = 0.87) in one trial, inconsistencies in the criteria necessary for hospitalisation during sickle crises did not permit accurate conclusions to be drawn. Two of the trials reported participant satisfaction with piracetam but provided no details as to how this satisfaction had been assessed. There were no reports of toxicity or adverse effects with piracetam other than one participant who experienced dizziness. The small number of included trials and their poor methodological quality provided insufficient reliable evidence to support the routine use of this medication for preventing the incidence of painful sickle cell disease crises.We will continue to run searches to identify any potentially relevant trials; however, we do not plan to update other sections of the review until new trials are published.

Drugs for preventing red blood cell dehydration in people with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Nagalla, Srikanth; Ballas, Samir K

2012-07-11

Sickle cell disease is an inherited disorder of hemoglobin, resulting in abnormal red blood cells. These are rigid and may block blood vessels leading to acute painful crises and other complications. Recent research has focused on therapies to rehydrate the sickled cells by reducing the loss of water and ions from them. Little is known about the effectiveness and safety of such drugs. To assess the relative risks and benefits of drugs to rehydrate sickled red blood cells. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register.Last search of the Group's Trials Register: 25 October 2011. Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials of drugs to rehydrate sickled red blood cells compared to placebo or an alternative treatment. Both authors independently selected studies for inclusion, assessed study quality and extracted data. Of the 51 studies identified, three met the inclusion criteria. The first study tested the effectiveness of zinc sulphate to prevent sickle cell-related crises in a total of 145 participants and showed a significant reduction in painful crises over one and a half years, mean difference -2.83 (95% confidence interval -3.51 to -2.15). However, analysis was restricted due to limited statistical data. Changes to red cell parameters and blood counts were inconsistent. No serious adverse events were noted in the study.The second study was a Phase II dose-finding study of senicapoc (a Gardos channel blocker) compared to placebo. Compared to the placebo group the high dose senicapoc showed significant improvement in change in hemoglobin level, number and proportion of dense red blood cells, red blood cell count and indices and hematocrit. The results with low-dose senicapoc were similar to the high-dose senicapoc group but of lesser magnitude. There was no difference in the frequency of painful crises between the three groups. A subsequent Phase III study of senicapoc was terminated early since there was no difference observed between the treatment and control groups in the primary end point of painful crises. While the results of zinc for reducing sickle-related crises are encouraging, larger and longer-term multicenter studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this therapy for people with sickle cell disease.While the Phase II and the prematurely terminated phase III studies of senicapoc showed that the drug improved red cell survival (depending on dose), this did not lead to fewer painful crises.

After-Action Reports: Capturing Lessons Learned and Identifying Areas for Improvement. Lessons Learned from School Crises and Emergencies. Volume 2, Issue 1, 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2007

2007-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This issue of "Lessons Learned" addresses after-action reports, which are an integral part of the emergency preparedness planning continuum and support effective crisis response. After-action reports have a threefold purpose. They…

The Crisis Crisis in Higher Education: Is That a Wolf or a Pussycat at the Academy's Door? ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnbaum, Robert; Shushok, Frank

This paper reviews the literature using the word "crisis" in relation to current higher education and analyzes claims of three specific crises of the past 25 years. It considers reasons why educational institutions may be particularly vulnerable to claims of crisis and offers some ideas about the nature of higher education crises and the…

UHF (Ultra High Frequency) Military Satellite Communications Ground Equipment Interoperability.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-10-06

crisis management requires interoperability between various services. These short-term crises often arise from unforeseen circumstances in which...Scheduler Qualcomm has prepared an interoperability study for the JTC3A (Reference 15) as a TA/CE for USCINCLANT ROC 5-84 requirements. It has defined a...interoperability is fundamental. A number of operational crises have occurred where interoperable communications or the lack of interoperable

Coping with Multiple Suicides among Middle School Students. Lessons Learned from School Crises and Emergencies. Volume 2, Issue 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2007

2007-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue addresses the experience of a school district where three middle school students hung themselves within a three-week timeframe. Although deaths were apparently unconnected, the school district is part of a…

Long-Term Impact of Famine: Enduring Disasters and Opportunities for Progress. Staff Report No. AGES870212.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mabbs-Zeno, Carl C.

Throughout history, famine has been linked to many of the most severe crises of humanity. Even with millenary of collective experience, the reaction of the world community to the an intense food crises fails to address the long-term impacts of famine. As governments and populations strive to cope with famine, many long-term changes take place in…

Managing an Infectious Disease Outbreak in a School. Lessons Learned from School Crises and Emergencies. Volume 2, Issue 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2007

2007-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue focuses on an infectious disease incident, which resulted in the death of a student, closure of area schools and the operation of an on-site school vaccine clinic. The report highlights the critical need…

A Manual-Based Intervention to Address Clinical Crises and Retain Patients in the Treatment of Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Diane E.; Kratochvil, Christopher J.; Puumala, Susan E.; Silva, Susan G.; Rezac, Amy J.; Hallin, Mary J.; Reinecke, Mark A.; Vitiello, Benedetto; Weller, Elizabeth B.; Pathak, Sanjeev; Simons, Anne D.; March, John S.

2007-01-01

Objective: To describe a manual-based intervention to address clinical crises and retain participants in the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS). Method: The use of adjunct services for attrition prevention (ASAP) is described for adolescents (ages 12-17 years) during the 12-week acute treatment in TADS, from 2000 to 2003.…

Treatment and outcomes of crisis resolution teams: a prospective multicentre study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Crisis resolution teams (CRTs) aim to help patients in acute mental health crises without admitting them to hospital. The aims of this study were to investigate content of treatment, service practice, and outcomes of crises of CRTs in Norway. Methods The study had a multicentre prospective design, examining routine data for 680 patients and 62 staff members of eight CRTs. The clinical staff collected data on the demographic, clinical, and content of treatment variables. The service practices of the staff were assessed on the Community Program Practice Scale. Information on each CRT was recorded by the team leaders. The outcomes of crises were measured by the changes in Global Assessment of Functioning scale scores and the total scores on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales between admission and discharge. Regression analysis was used to predict favourable outcomes. Results The mean length of treatment was 19 days for the total sample (N = 680) and 29 days for the 455 patients with more than one consultation; 7.4% of the patients had had more than twice-weekly consultations with any member of the clinical staff of the CRTs. A doctor or psychologist participated in 55.5% of the treatment episodes. The CRTs collaborated with other mental health services in 71.5% of cases and with families/networks in 51.5% of cases. The overall outcomes of the crises were positive, with a small to medium effect size. Patients with depression received the longest treatments and showed most improvement of crisis. Patients with psychotic symptoms and substance abuse problems received the shortest treatments, showed least improvement, and were most often referred to other parts of the mental health services. Length of treatment, being male and single, and a team focus on out-of-office contact were predictors of favourable outcomes of crises in the adjusted model. Conclusions Our study indicates that, compared with the UK, the Norwegian CRTs provided less intensive and less out-of-office care. The Norwegian CRTs worked more with depression and suicidal crises than with psychoses. To be an alternative to hospital admission, the Norwegian CRTs need to intensify their treatment and meet more patients outside the office. PMID:22108030

Crise convulsive chez les abuseurs de Tramadol et caféine: à propos de 8 cas et revue de la littérature

PubMed Central

Maiga, Djibo Douma; Seyni, Houdou; Sidikou, Amadou; Azouma, Alfazazi

2012-01-01

Nous rapportons Huit cas de crises convulsives diagnostiquées comme maladie épileptique après ingestion de Tramadol et d'autres substances psychotropes dont la Caféine dans une région ou maladie épileptique et addiction au café sont fréquentes. L'objectif de ce travail était d'informer les praticiens sur le risque de convulsion lié à la consommation du Tramadol seul ou en association avec d'autres psychotropes en s'appuyant sur les données de la littérature. Il s'agissait d'une étude rétrospective et exhaustive de patients vus en consultation ambulatoire pour crise convulsive et consommation de Tramadol et de caféine de janvier à mai 2012. Les données collectées étaient les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et de la consommation de Tramadol. Le diagnostic de crise convulsive a été posé sur les renseignements obtenus à l'anamnèse. Tous les patients ont été soumis à un examen neurologique et aux critères de dépendance du Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSMIV)-R par rapport à leur consommation de Tramadol. Nous n'avons pas trouvé dans la littérature médicale de cas de consommation concomitante de Tramadol et de Caféine. Les données expérimentales suggèrent une action synergique du Tramadol et de la Caféine sur la douleur et le seuil épileptogène. Nos observations plaident également en faveur d'une synergie d'action de ces deux molécules dans la survenue des crises convulsives. La fréquence des crises convulsives suite à une intoxication par le Tramadol et la caféine est susceptible d'augmenter en Afrique en raison du mésusage croissant de ces substances. Une étude comparative usagers de Tramadol associé à la Caféine et usagers du Tramadol seul devrait permettre d’évaluer le risque. PMID:23308329

EPA guidance on mental health and economic crises in Europe.

PubMed

Martin-Carrasco, M; Evans-Lacko, S; Dom, G; Christodoulou, N G; Samochowiec, J; González-Fraile, E; Bienkowski, P; Gómez-Beneyto, M; Dos Santos, M J H; Wasserman, D

2016-03-01

This European Psychiatric Association (EPA) guidance paper is a result of the Working Group on Mental Health Consequences of Economic Crises of the EPA Council of National Psychiatric Associations. Its purpose is to identify the impact on mental health in Europe of the economic downturn and the measures that may be taken to respond to it. We performed a review of the existing literature that yields 350 articles on which our conclusions and recommendations are based. Evidence-based tables and recommendations were developed through an expert consensus process. Literature dealing with the consequences of economic turmoil on the health and health behaviours of the population is heterogeneous, and the results are not completely unequivocal. However, there is a broad consensus about the deleterious consequences of economic crises on mental health, particularly on psychological well-being, depression, anxiety disorders, insomnia, alcohol abuse, and suicidal behaviour. Unemployment, indebtedness, precarious working conditions, inequalities, lack of social connectedness, and housing instability emerge as main risk factors. Men at working age could be particularly at risk, together with previous low SES or stigmatized populations. Generalized austerity measures and poor developed welfare systems trend to increase the harmful effects of economic crises on mental health. Although many articles suggest limitations of existing research and provide suggestions for future research, there is relatively little discussion of policy approaches to address the negative impact of economic crises on mental health. The few studies that addressed policy questions suggested that the development of social protection programs such as active labour programs, social support systems, protection for housing instability, and better access to mental health care, particularly at primary care level, is strongly needed.

Addison's disease with polyglandular autoimmunity carries a more than 2·5-fold risk for adrenal crises: German Health insurance data 2010-2013.

PubMed

Meyer, Gesine; Badenhoop, Klaus; Linder, Roland

2016-09-01

Adrenal crises are potentially life-threatening complications in patients with adrenal insufficiency (AI). Our objective was to investigate the frequency of adrenal crises in different forms of AI. The Statutory Health Insurance (SHI) database of the Techniker Krankenkasse - covering more than 12% of the German population - was analysed for diagnostic codes from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2013. By analysis of routine data from a large healthcare provider. Diagnoses of AI were recorded and classified in primary AI, secondary AI and autoimmune polyglandular syndrome (APS). The ICD-code E27·2 (AC) was retrieved in all cohorts. We found a prevalence of 222/million for secondary and 126/million for primary AI. AC was documented with a frequency of 4·8/100 patient years. Crises were significantly more frequent in patients with primary (7·6/100 patient years) compared to those with secondary AI (3·2/100 patient years; P < 0·0001). Prevalence of crises was higher in individuals with APS (10·9/100 patient years) and highest in patients with primary AI and type 1 diabetes (12·5/100 patient years). Applying a SHI database comprising more than 9 million individuals, we identified robust data about the risk of AC in different groups of patients with AI. Our data confirm and extend the clinical observation that patients with APS are at highest risk for AC. Approximately 1 of 8 patients with primary AI and type 1 diabetes suffers from an AC each year. Specific targeting of efforts aiming at the prevention of AC is necessary. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of verbal autopsy and social autopsy in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Thomas, Lisa-Marie; D'Ambruoso, Lucia; Balabanova, Dina

2018-01-01

Two billion people live in countries affected by conflict, violence and fragility. These are exceptional situations in which mortality shifts dramatically and in which civil registration and vital statistics systems are often weakened or cease to function. Verbal autopsy and social autopsy (VA and SA) are methods used to assign causes of death and understand the contexts in which these occur, in settings where information is otherwise unavailable. This review sought to explore the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises, with a focus on how these approaches are used to inform policy and programme responses. A rapid scoping review was conducted on the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises in low and middle-income countries since 1991. Drawing on a maximum variation approach, two settings of application ('application contexts') were selected and investigated via nine semi-structured expert interviews. VA can determine causes of death in crisis-affected populations where no other registration system is in place. Combined with SA and active community involvement, these methods can deliver a holistic view of obstacles to seeking and receiving essential healthcare, yielding context-specific information to inform appropriate responses. The contexts in which VA and SA are used require adaptations to standard tools, and new mobile developments in VA raise specific ethical considerations. Furthermore, collecting and sythesising data in a timely, continuous manner, and ensuring coordination and communication between agencies, is important to realise the potential of these approaches. VA and SA are valuable research methods to foster evidence-informed responses for populations affected by humanitarian crises. When coordinated and communicated effectively, data generated through these methods can help to identify levels, causes and circumstances of deaths among vulnerable groups, and can enable planning and allocating resources effectively, potentially improving health system resilience to future crises.

Blood ammonia and glutamine as predictors of hyperammonemic crises in patients with urea cycle disorder.

PubMed

Lee, Brendan; Diaz, George A; Rhead, William; Lichter-Konecki, Uta; Feigenbaum, Annette; Berry, Susan A; Le Mons, Cindy; Bartley, James A; Longo, Nicola; Nagamani, Sandesh C; Berquist, William; Gallagher, Renata; Bartholomew, Dennis; Harding, Cary O; Korson, Mark S; McCandless, Shawn E; Smith, Wendy; Cederbaum, Stephen; Wong, Derek; Merritt, J Lawrence; Schulze, Andreas; Vockley, Jerry; Vockley, Gerard; Kronn, David; Zori, Roberto; Summar, Marshall; Milikien, Douglas A; Marino, Miguel; Coakley, Dion F; Mokhtarani, Masoud; Scharschmidt, Bruce F

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to examine predictors of ammonia exposure and hyperammonemic crises in patients with urea cycle disorders. The relationships between fasting ammonia, daily ammonia exposure, and hyperammonemic crises were analyzed in >100 patients with urea cycle disorders. Fasting ammonia correlated strongly with daily ammonia exposure (r = 0.764; P < 0.001). For patients with fasting ammonia concentrations <0.5 upper limit of normal (ULN), 0.5 to <1.0 ULN, and ≥1.0 ULN, the probability of a normal average daily ammonia value was 87, 60, and 39%, respectively, and 10.3, 14.1, and 37.0% of these patients, respectively, experienced ≥1 hyperammonemic crisis over 12 months. Time to first hyperammonemic crisis was shorter (P = 0.008) and relative risk (4.5×; P = 0.011) and rate (~5×, P = 0.006) of hyperammonemic crises were higher in patients with fasting ammonia ≥1.0 ULN vs. <0.5ULN; relative risk was even greater (20×; P = 0.009) in patients ≥6 years old. A 10- or 25-µmol/l increase in ammonia exposure increased the relative risk of a hyperammonemic crisis by 50 and >200% (P < 0.0001), respectively. The relationship between ammonia and hyperammonemic crisis risk seemed to be independent of treatment, age, urea cycle disorder subtype, dietary protein intake, or blood urea nitrogen. Fasting glutamine correlated weakly with daily ammonia exposure assessed as 24-hour area under the curve and was not a significant predictor of hyperammonemic crisis. Fasting ammonia correlates strongly and positively with daily ammonia exposure and with the risk and rate of hyperammonemic crises, suggesting that patients with urea cycle disorder may benefit from tight ammonia control.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Failing States as Epidemiologic Risk Zones: Implications for Global Health Security.

PubMed

Hirschfeld, Katherine

Failed states commonly experience health and mortality crises that include outbreaks of infectious disease, violent conflict, reductions in life expectancy, and increased infant and maternal mortality. This article draws from recent research in political science, security studies, and international relations to explore how the process of state failure generates health declines and outbreaks of infectious disease. The key innovation of this model is a revised definition of "the state" as a geographically dynamic rather than static political space. This makes it easier to understand how phases of territorial contraction, collapse, and regeneration interrupt public health programs, destabilize the natural environment, reduce human security, and increase risks of epidemic infectious disease and other humanitarian crises. Better understanding of these dynamics will help international health agencies predict and prepare for future health and mortality crises created by failing states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapsa, Melissa Voss; Khowailed, Gannate

The heating and cooling equipment market in the United States (U.S.) evolved in the last two decades affected by the housing market and external market conditions. The average home size increased by 25% since 1999, contributing to increased average equipment size of heat pumps (HPs) and air conditioners (ACs). The home size increase did not correlate with higher residential energy used. The last decade is recognized for improved home insulation and equipment efficiency, which has made up for the larger home size and still yielded lower residential energy use. The lower energy use coincides with more homes using HPs. HPmore » growth was supported by the price stability and affordability of electricity. The heating and cooling equipment market also seems to be rebounding faster than the housing market after the economic crises. In 2009 only 22% of HPs were sold to new homes, reflecting increased heat pump sales for add-on and replacement applications. HPs are growing in popularity and becoming an established economic technology. The increased usage of HPs will result in reduced residential heating energy use and carbon dioxide emissions.« less

Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

PubMed

Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

2012-12-15

Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

High-Tech, Low-Tech, No-Tech: Communications Strategies During Blackouts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

share radiation measurements; it was created within a week of the Fukushima nuclear disaster . More than 3.5 million data readings have already been...national nuclear crisis, especially as the extent of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant became known. This is where hyper-local communication...accompany major crises, particularly natural disasters such as severe weather events. Thus, during crises, communications are often severely hampered

Joint and Combined Military Force: A Possible Solution to African Economic Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

New York Monthly Review Press, N.Y.: 1966). 4. Enzo Falloto and Frenando Henrique Cardoso, Dependencia (Mexico Siglo XX1: 1969). 5. David Apter and...the most volatile and explosive political destabilizers in Africa today is religion . However, religious differences serving as catalysts to political...crises is not peculiar to African. From the beginning of civilization, religion has caused major political crises within and between nations. Nearly

Can Interest-Free Finance Limit the Frequency of Crises and the Volatility of the Business Cycle?

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-14

free economics. Scholars from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) researched theoretical interest-free finance a great deal during the 1980s. In...inevitably comes, their assets devalue and their leverage increases. Moreover, a higher proportion of firms become critically leveraged. The interest...to currency crises. Whereas high interest payments might send an otherwise profitable firm to bankruptcy and foreclosure, equity financing may

Communication and Collaboration During Natural Disasters: The Lessons Learned From Past Experience. Lessons Learned From School Crises and Emergencies, Volume 3, Issue 2, 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2008

2008-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue focuses on the response and recovery efforts to wildfires by the San Diego County Office of Education (SDCOE) and its school and community partners. Natural disasters such as floods,…

Responding To and Recovering From an Active Shooter Incident That Turns Into a Hostage Situation. Lessons Learned From School Crises and Emergencies, Volume 2, Issue 6, 2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2007

2007-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue focuses on an active shooter situation that escalated to a hostage situation that required multiple law enforcement agencies and other first responders and agencies to coordinate response and recovery…

Responding To Infectious Disease: Multiple Cases of Staph Infections in a Rural School District. Lessons Learned From School Crises and Emergencies, Volume 3, Issue 3, 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2008

2008-01-01

"Lessons Learned" is a series of publications that are a brief recounting of actual school emergencies and crises. This "Lessons Learned" issue focuses on an incident involving several cases of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) at a rural high school. MRSA is a specific strain of Staphylococcus aureus bacteria (often called staph)…

A Role for Science in Responding to Health Crises

PubMed Central

Brothers, Reginald; Murata, Christina E.

2016-01-01

The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate plays a role in public health that extends beyond biodefense. These responsibilities were exercised as part of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak, leading to productive and beneficial contributions to the international public health response and improved operations in the United States. However, we and others have identified numerous areas for improvement. Based on our successes and lessons learned, we propose a number of ways that DHS, the interagency, and academia can act now to ensure improved responses to future public health crises. These include pre-developing scientific capabilities to respond agnostically to threats, and disease-specific master question lists to organize and inform initial efforts. We are generating DHS-specific playbooks and tools for anticipating future needs and capturing requests from DHS components and our national and international partners, where efforts will also be used to refine and exercise communication and information-sharing practices. These experiences and improvement efforts have encouraged discussions on the role of science in developing government policy, specifically responding to public health crises. We propose specific considerations for both scientists and government decision makers to ensure that the best available science is incorporated into policy and operational decisions to facilitate highly effective responses to future health crises. PMID:27482881

Interprofessional intensive care unit team interactions and medical crises: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Piquette, Dominique; Reeves, Scott; Leblanc, Vicki R

2009-05-01

Research has suggested that interprofessional collaboration could improve patient outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU). Maintaining optimal interprofessional interactions in a setting where unpredictable medical crises occur periodically is however challenging. Our study aimed to investigate the perceptions of ICU health care professionals regarding how acute medical crises affect their team interactions. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews of ICU nurses, staff physicians, and respiratory therapists. All interviews were audio-taped and transcribed, and the analysis was undertaken using an inductive thematic approach. Our data indicated that the nature of interprofessional interactions changed as teams passed through three key temporal periods around medical crises. During the "pre-crisis period", interactions were based on the mutual respect of each other's expertise. During the "crisis period", hierarchical interactions were expected and a certain lack of civility was tolerated. During the "post-crisis period", divergent perceptions emerged amongst health professionals. Post-crisis team dispersion left the nurses with questions and emotions not expressed by other team members. Nurses believed that systematic interprofessional feedback sessions held immediately after a crisis could address some of their needs. Further research is needed to establish the possible benefits of strategies addressing ICU health care professionals' specific needs for interprofessional feedback after a medical crisis.

The nemesis effect.

PubMed

Bright, C

1999-01-01

Environmental pressures are converging in ways that are likely to create a growing number of unanticipated crises. Two representative surprise crises involve the forests of Eastern North America and the coral reefs. These examples reveal 13 of the worst pressures inflicted on the planet and on mankind: climate change, acid rain, increasing ultraviolet light penetration, increasing tropospheric ozone levels, habitat loss, freshwater diversion, bioinvasion, alteration of fire cycles, persistent organic pollutants, nitrogen pollution, overfishing, population growth, and infectious diseases. It is noted that these crises will demand a fix, and each fix will require money, time, and political capital. However, ¿fixing¿ is not enough, since there is no realistic expectation of reducing the potential for additional crises. Hence, the best possible way of controlling such events is to do a better job of managing systems in their entirety. In view of this, several important principles are given; these include the following: 1) monoculture technologies are brittle; 2) direct opposition to a natural force usually invites failure or a form of success that is just as bad; 3) thinking through the likely systemic effects of a plan will help locate the risks, as well as indirect opportunities; 4) institutional pluralism can create a public space that no single institution could have created alone.

Clinical characteristics of hyperglycemic crises in patients without a history of diabetes.

PubMed

Chou, Willy; Chung, Min-Hsien; Wang, Hsien-Yi; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Chen, Wei-Lung; Guo, How-Ran; Lin, Hung-Jung; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2014-11-01

Hyperglycemic crises without a history of diabetes have not been well studied. We compared the clinical characteristics of patients with and without a history of diabetes, and evaluated the glycated hemoglobin levels. Consecutive adult patients (aged >18 years) visiting the emergency department (ED) between January 2004 and December 2010 were enrolled if they met the criteria for a hyperglycemic crisis. Patients were separated into those without and those with a history of diabetes. The 30-day mortality was the primary end-point. We enrolled 295 patients who made 330 visits to the ED. Patients without a history of diabetes made up 24.5% (81/330) of the hyperglycemic crises. Patients without a history of diabetes were more prone than patients with a history of diabetes to be younger and male, and to have better consciousness and renal function, more significant diabetic signs and symptoms (e.g., thirst, polydipsia, polyuria and bodyweight loss), higher blood sugar, and less opportunity of infection and mortality. Most of the patients (93.8%, 76/81) had glycated hemoglobin of ≥6.5%. The present study delineates the clinical characteristics of patients with hyperglycemic crises, but without a history of diabetes. Most patients had glycated hemoglobin ≥6.5%, which raises the argument of using this biomarker for routine screening of diabetes.

Evolvement of Uniformity and Volatility in the Stressed Global Financial Village

PubMed Central

Kenett, Dror Y.; Raddant, Matthias; Lux, Thomas; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2012-01-01

Background In the current era of strong worldwide market couplings the global financial village became highly prone to systemic collapses, events that can rapidly sweep throughout the entire village. Methodology/Principal Findings We present a new methodology to assess and quantify inter-market relations. The approach is based on the correlations between the market index, the index volatility, the market Index Cohesive Force and the meta-correlations (correlations between the intra-correlations.) We investigated the relations between six important world markets—U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, China and India—from January 2000 until December 2010. We found that while the developed “western” markets (U.S., U.K., Germany) are highly correlated, the interdependencies between these markets and the developing “eastern” markets (India and China) are volatile and with noticeable maxima at times of global world events. The Japanese market switches “identity”—it switches between periods of high meta-correlations with the “western” markets and periods when it behaves more similarly to the “eastern” markets. Conclusions/Significance The methodological framework presented here provides a way to quantify the evolvement of interdependencies in the global market, evaluate a world financial network and quantify changes in the world inter market relations. Such changes can be used as precursors to the agitation of the global financial village. Hence, the new approach can help to develop a sensitive “financial seismograph” to detect early signs of global financial crises so they can be treated before they develop into worldwide events. PMID:22347444

Temperature-sensitive PSII: a novel approach for sustained photosynthetic hydrogen production.

PubMed

Bayro-Kaiser, Vinzenz; Nelson, Nathan

2016-12-01

The need for energy and the associated burden are ever growing. It is crucial to develop new technologies for generating clean and efficient energy for society to avoid upcoming energetic and environmental crises. Sunlight is the most abundant source of energy on the planet. Consequently, it has captured our interest. Certain microalgae possess the ability to capture solar energy and transfer it to the energy carrier, H 2 . H 2 is a valuable fuel, because its combustion produces only one by-product: water. However, the establishment of an efficient biophotolytic H 2 production system is hindered by three main obstacles: (1) the hydrogen-evolving enzyme, [FeFe]-hydrogenase, is highly sensitive to oxygen; (2) energy conversion efficiencies are not economically viable; and (3) hydrogen-producing organisms are sensitive to stressful conditions in large-scale production systems. This study aimed to circumvent the oxygen sensitivity of this process with a cyclic hydrogen production system. This approach required a mutant that responded to high temperatures by reducing oxygen evolution. To that end, we randomly mutagenized the green microalgae, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, to generate mutants that exhibited temperature-sensitive photoautotrophic growth. The selected mutants were further characterized by their ability to evolve oxygen and hydrogen at 25 and 37 °C. We identified four candidate mutants for this project. We characterized these mutants with PSII fluorescence, P700 absorbance, and immunoblotting analyses. Finally, we demonstrated that these mutants could function in a prototype hydrogen-producing bioreactor. These mutant microalgae represent a novel approach for sustained hydrogen production.

CV or Not to Be? Alternatives to U.S. Sea-Based Air Power

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

decisionmakers’ ability to respond to crises nearly anywhere in the world. Despite this, a fundamental question arises: What does the future hold for...much concentrated striking power to U.S. decisionmakers’ ability to respond to crises nearly anywhere in the world. Despite this, a fundamental ...certainties, a fundamental question arises: What does the future hold for sea-based air power? Aircraft carriers are among the military’s costliest assets

Report to the 58th World Health Assembly: Health Action in Relation to Crises and Disasters.

PubMed

2005-01-01

This Summary Report was prepared for Agenda item 13.3 for the meeting of the World Health Assembly convened at the World Health Organization (WHO) Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland on 20 May 2005. It was in part, prepared from the Reports generaged by the Conference, Health Actions in Relation to Crises and Disasters, convened by the WHO in Phuket, Thailand, 04-06 May 2005.

The Impact of Economic Crises on Women's Employment: A Comparison of the Great Depression (1930s) and the Current Crisis (1970s-1980s).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sokoloff, Natalie J.

Two areas in which the impact of economic crises on women's employment in the Great Depression of 1930 and during the 1970's and 1980's appear to be similar are examined: (1) the actual changes in female employment; and (2) the ideological campaigns and policies generated and/or reinforced, especially by the federal government, blaming women for…

Early Life Crises of Habitable Planets

ScienceCinema

Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2018-05-11

There are a number of crises that a potentially habitable planet must avoid or surmount if its potential is to be realized. These include the runaway greenhouse, loss of atmosphere by chemical or physical processes, and long-lasting global glaciation. In this lecture I will present research on the climate dynamics governing such processes, with particular emphasis on the lessons to be learned from the cases of Early Mars and the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth.

Erythropoietin in sickle cell disease: relation of erythropoietin levels to crisis and other complications.

PubMed

Haddy, T B

1982-01-01

Erythropoietin responsible for the hormonal regulation of red blood cell production. Its formation is largely controlled by the kidneys. A number of assay methods for erythropoietin are available. Asymptomatic patients with sickle cell disease have elevated erythropoietin levels, as expected with chronic hemolysis. When complicated by chronic renal failure, erythropoietin levels do not rise appropriately. Chronic infection has not been studied, but the erythropoietin response in acute infection does not seem to conform to a pattern. Aplastic crises are characterized by very high levels of erythropoietin, suggesting bone marrow suppression, but events that trigger the crises remain obscure. In vaso-occlusive crises, there is also some suggestion of mild and transient lack of bone marrow response. Patients with sickle cell disease, with their chronic high erythropoietin anemia and susceptibility to altered states, are uniquely suited for investigating the physiology of erythropoietin, especially under the constraints of present assay methods.

Intranasal dexmedetomidine for adrenergic crisis in familial dysautonomia.

PubMed

Spalink, Christy L; Barnes, Erin; Palma, Jose-Alberto; Norcliffe-Kaufmann, Lucy; Kaufmann, Horacio

2017-08-01

To report the use of intranasal dexmedetomidine, an α 2 -adrenergic agonist for the acute treatment of refractory adrenergic crisis in patients with familial dysautonomia. Case series. Three patients with genetically confirmed familial dysautonomia (case 1: 20-year-old male; case 2: 43-year-old male; case 3: 26-year-old female) received intranasal dexmedetomidine 2 mcg/kg, half of the dose in each nostril, for the acute treatment of adrenergic crisis. Within 8-17 min of administering the intranasal dose, the adrenergic crisis symptoms abated, and blood pressure and heart rate returned to pre-crises values. Adrenergic crises eventually resumed, and all three patients required hospitalization for investigation of the cause of the crises. Intranasal dexmedetomidine is a feasible and safe acute treatment for adrenergic crisis in patients with familial dysautonomia. Further controlled studies are required to confirm the safety and efficacy in this population.

Marital crises in oncology patients. An approach to initial intervention by primary clinicians.

PubMed

Peteet, J; Greenberg, B

1995-05-01

Life-threatening illnesses such as cancer may precipitate marital crises in vulnerable relationships, and oncology clinicians often feel uncertain about how to approach them. This paper presents a framework for initial intervention based on the nature of the principal threat to the relationship. Immature relationships need distance and support for their identity as a couple; hostile dependent couples need to find consensus in order to structure communication; physically abusive relationships require monitoring in order to promote safety; and estranged couples need help in understanding their disappointment and identifying available support. Clinicians working in oncology can help couples in crisis by promoting a realistic balance of independence and dependence, clarifying the complexity of factors contributing to the crisis, considering referral for couples treatment, communicating with the team while respecting patients' confidences, and by choosing clear and compatible clinical roles. Primary clinicians can stabilize and treat marital crises, but need access to medically knowledgeable couples' therapists.

Drugs for preventing red blood cell dehydration in people with sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Nagalla, Srikanth; Ballas, Samir K

2016-03-04

Sickle cell disease is an inherited disorder of hemoglobin, resulting in abnormal red blood cells. These are rigid and may block blood vessels leading to acute painful crises and other complications. Recent research has focused on therapies to rehydrate the sickled cells by reducing the loss of water and ions from them. Little is known about the effectiveness and safety of such drugs. This is an updated version of a previously published review. To assess the relative risks and benefits of drugs to rehydrate sickled red blood cells. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Haemoglobinopathies Trials Register.Last search of the Group's Trials Register: 28 November 2015. Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials of drugs to rehydrate sickled red blood cells compared to placebo or an alternative treatment. Both authors independently selected studies for inclusion, assessed study quality and extracted data. Of the 51 studies identified, three met the inclusion criteria. The first study tested the effectiveness of zinc sulphate to prevent sickle cell-related crises in a total of 145 participants and showed a significant reduction in painful crises over one and a half years, mean difference -2.83 (95% confidence interval -3.51 to -2.15). However, analysis was restricted due to limited statistical data. Changes to red cell parameters and blood counts were inconsistent. No serious adverse events were noted in the study.The second study was a Phase II dose-finding study of senicapoc (a Gardos channel blocker) compared to placebo. Compared to the placebo group the high dose senicapoc showed significant improvement in change in hemoglobin level, number and proportion of dense red blood cells, red blood cell count and indices and hematocrit. The results with low-dose senicapoc were similar to the high-dose senicapoc group but of lesser magnitude. There was no difference in the frequency of painful crises between the three groups. A subsequent Phase III study of senicapoc was terminated early since there was no difference observed between the treatment and control groups in the primary end point of painful crises. While the results of zinc for reducing sickle-related crises are encouraging, larger and longer-term multicenter studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this therapy for people with sickle cell disease.While the Phase II and the prematurely terminated phase III studies of senicapoc showed that the drug improved red cell survival (depending on dose), this did not lead to fewer painful crises.We will continue to run searches to identify any potentially relevant trials; however, we do not plan to update other sections of the review until new trials are published.

Factors associated with the use of cognitive aids in operating room crises: a cross-sectional study of US hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers.

PubMed

Alidina, Shehnaz; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Sara N; Hannenberg, Alexander A; Hepner, David L; Singer, Sara J; Neville, Bridget A; Sachetta, James R; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Berry, William R

2018-03-26

Operating room (OR) crises are high-acuity events requiring rapid, coordinated management. Medical judgment and decision-making can be compromised in stressful situations, and clinicians may not experience a crisis for many years. A cognitive aid (e.g., checklist) for the most common types of crises in the OR may improve management during unexpected and rare events. While implementation strategies for innovations such as cognitive aids for routine use are becoming better understood, cognitive aids that are rarely used are not yet well understood. We examined organizational context and implementation process factors influencing the use of cognitive aids for OR crises. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a Web-based survey of individuals who had downloaded OR cognitive aids from the websites of Ariadne Labs or Stanford University between January 2013 and January 2016. In this paper, we report on the experience of 368 respondents from US hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers. We analyzed the relationship of more successful implementation (measured as reported regular cognitive aid use during applicable clinical events) with organizational context and with participation in a multi-step implementation process. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify significant predictors of reported, regular OR cognitive aid use during OR crises. In the multivariable logistic regression, small facility size was associated with a fourfold increase in the odds of a facility reporting more successful implementation (p = 0.0092). Completing more implementation steps was also significantly associated with more successful implementation; each implementation step completed was associated with just over 50% higher odds of more successful implementation (p ≤ 0.0001). More successful implementation was associated with leadership support (p < 0.0001) and dedicated time to train staff (p = 0.0189). Less successful implementation was associated with resistance among clinical providers to using cognitive aids (p < 0.0001), absence of an implementation champion (p = 0.0126), and unsatisfactory content or design of the cognitive aid (p = 0.0112). Successful implementation of cognitive aids in ORs was associated with a supportive organizational context and following a multi-step implementation process. Building strong organizational support and following a well-planned multi-step implementation process will likely increase the use of OR cognitive aids during intraoperative crises, which may improve patient outcomes.

Impact of Jos Crises on Pattern of Students/Teachers' Population in Schools and Its Implication on the Quality of Teaching and Peaceful Co-Existence in Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Sunday

2015-01-01

This study examined the pattern of students/teachers' population in schools as a result of the crises witnessed in Jos and its consequences on quality of teaching as well as peaceful living in Jos. Stratified simple random sampling technique was used to select the 18 schools that were used for this study. Questionnaire was used to collect…

[Womanhood today--identity experiences and identity crises].

PubMed

Kast, V

1985-01-01

Modern women's identity crises and the various possibilities of identification along the way towards a new identity can be seen as her attempts to develop out of the depressive situation that her once normal role identity had, to a large extent, placed her in. Under this aspect, even concepts of living that are seen by many to be problematic can be justified as leading along the way towards identity, which is so essential for human relationships and interpersonal empathy.

Cross-cultural customs and beliefs related to health crises, death, and organ donation/transplantation: a guide to assist health care professionals understand different responses and provide cross-cultural assistance.

PubMed

McQuay, J E

1995-09-01

All individuals can expect to encounter some form of crisis and loss. Responses to these experiences are not universal and will be influenced by a person's cultural background and religious beliefs. This appendix provides information about the different responses to health crises, death, and organ donation and transplantation as practiced by various religious and cultural groups.

The Emergence of Contextual Social Psychology.

PubMed

Pettigrew, Thomas F

2018-07-01

Social psychology experiences recurring so-called "crises." This article maintains that these episodes actually mark advances in the discipline; these "crises" have enhanced relevance and led to greater methodological and statistical sophistication. New statistical tools have allowed social psychologists to begin to achieve a major goal: placing psychological phenomena in their larger social contexts. This growing trend is illustrated with numerous recent studies; they demonstrate how cultures and social norms moderate basic psychological processes. Contextual social psychology is finally emerging.

Interventions by Virginia's colleges to respond to student mental health crises.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Bonnie, Richard J; Davis, Susan M; Flynn, Christopher

2011-12-01

This study examined interventions by colleges in 2008-2009 to respond to students during mental health crises. Public (N=15) and private (N=25) four-year colleges and two-year community colleges (N=23) in Virginia were surveyed about academic policies governing responses to apparent mental health crises among students and how often they were invoked. Procedures used most often by public and private colleges, respectively, were parental notification (six and 25 per 10,000 students); voluntary medical withdrawal, usually linking readmission to treatment (29 and 25 per 10,000 students); mandatory treatment following disciplinary sanction (302 and 1,704 per 10,000 students); and monitoring by a campus threat assessment team (15 and 51 per 10,000 students). Procedures for involuntary hospitalization and involuntary medical withdrawal were rarely invoked. Community colleges were much less likely than four-year colleges to use any of these procedures. Most four-year colleges in Virginia, both public and private, occasionally invoke a variety of protective interventions to respond to apparent mental health crises experienced by students, but the number of students annually affected by these policies is generally small. The main value of procedures for mandated or leveraged treatment in college may be to motivate students with mental illness to seek treatment voluntarily. Aside from sporadic use of threat assessment teams in extreme instances, community colleges, which do not have counseling centers, lack the capacity to undertake these interventions.

Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

Is There a Statistical Relationship between Economic Crises and Changes in Government Health Expenditure Growth? An Analysis of Twenty-Four European Countries

PubMed Central

Cylus, Jonathan; Mladovsky, Philipa; McKee, Martin

2012-01-01

Objective To identify whether, by what means, and the extent to which historically, government health care expenditure growth in Europe has changed following economic crises. Data Sources Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Health Data 2011. Study Design Cross-country fixed effects multiple regression analysis is used to determine whether statutory health care expenditure growth in the year after economic crises differs from that which would otherwise be predicted by general economic trends. Better understanding of the mechanisms involved is achieved by distinguishing between policy responses which lead to cost-shifting and all others. Findings In the year after an economic downturn, public health care expenditure grows more slowly than would have been expected given the longer term economic climate. Cost-shifting and other policy responses are both associated with these slowdowns. However, while changes in tax-derived expenditure are associated with both cost-shifting and other policy responses following a crisis, changes in expenditure derived from social insurance have been associated only with changes in cost-shifting. Conclusions Disproportionate cuts to the health sector, as well as reliance on cost-shifting to slow growth in health care expenditure, serve as a warning in terms of potentially negative effects on equity, efficiency, and quality of health services and, potentially, health outcomes following economic crises. PMID:22670771

Crises in clinical care: an approach to management.

PubMed

Runciman, W B; Merry, A F

2005-06-01

A "crisis" in health care is "the point in the course of a disease at which a decisive change occurs, leading either to recovery or to death". The daunting challenges faced by clinicians when confronted with a crisis are illustrated by a tragic case in which a teenage boy died after a minor surgical procedure. Crises are challenging for reasons which include: presentation with non-specific signs or symptoms, interaction of complex factors, progressive evolution, new situations, "revenge effects", inadequate assistance, and time constraints. In crises, clinicians often experience anxiety- and overload-induced performance degradation, tend to use "frequency gambling", run out of "rules" and have to work from first principles, and are prone to "confirmation bias". The effective management of crises requires formal training, usually simulator-based, and ideally in the inter-professional groups who will need to function as a team. "COVER ABCD-A SWIFT CHECK" is a pre-compiled algorithm which can be applied quickly and effectively to facilitate a systematic and effective response to the wide range of potentially lethal problems which may occur suddenly in anaesthesia. A set of 25 articles describing additional pre-compiled responses collated into a manual for the management of any crisis under anaesthesia has been published electronically as companion papers to this article. This approach to crisis management should be applied to other areas of clinical medicine as well as anaesthesia.

Is there a statistical relationship between economic crises and changes in government health expenditure growth? an analysis of twenty-four European countries.

PubMed

Cylus, Jonathan; Mladovsky, Philipa; McKee, Martin

2012-12-01

To identify whether, by what means, and the extent to which historically, government health care expenditure growth in Europe has changed following economic crises. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Health Data 2011. Cross-country fixed effects multiple regression analysis is used to determine whether statutory health care expenditure growth in the year after economic crises differs from that which would otherwise be predicted by general economic trends. Better understanding of the mechanisms involved is achieved by distinguishing between policy responses which lead to cost-shifting and all others. In the year after an economic downturn, public health care expenditure grows more slowly than would have been expected given the longer term economic climate. Cost-shifting and other policy responses are both associated with these slowdowns. However, while changes in tax-derived expenditure are associated with both cost-shifting and other policy responses following a crisis, changes in expenditure derived from social insurance have been associated only with changes in cost-shifting. Disproportionate cuts to the health sector, as well as reliance on cost-shifting to slow growth in health care expenditure, serve as a warning in terms of potentially negative effects on equity, efficiency, and quality of health services and, potentially, health outcomes following economic crises. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

[Political crises in Africa and infant and child mortality].

PubMed

Garenne, M

1997-01-01

Many African countries experienced severe political crises after independence, and in a number of cases the crises had significant demographic consequences, especially for child mortality. Data based on maternity histories allowed the reconstruction of child mortality trends over the past 20-30 years in Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Mozambique. The indicator used was the child mortality quotient (number of deaths of under-5 children per 1000 births). Uganda's child mortality declined from 227/1000 in 1960 to 154/1000 in 1970, but the trend was reversed in 1971, when Idi Amin Dada came to power, and the rate reached 204/1000 in 1982 before beginning to decline again. The level of mortality remained high, however, and was still 160/1000 in 1988. Ghana suffered a political and economic crisis during 1979-84. Child mortality rose from 130/1000 in 1978 to 175/1000 in 1983. Mortality rates began a rapid decline after structural adjustment programs were begun, possibly due to improved management of health services. The child mortality rate in Rwanda increased from around 220/1000 in 1960 to 240/1000 in 1975, before beginning a decline in the late 1970s that reached 140/1000 by 1990. The period of political stability and relative prosperity during the 15-year reign of Juvenal Habyarimana was associated with the decline. Political crises marked by student and peasant uprisings were associated with Madagascar's child mortality rate increase from about 145/1000 in 1960 to 185/1000 in 1985. Mozambique was beset by civil war after independence, in which destruction of the health infrastructure was a strategy. The child mortality rate increased from 270/1000 to 470/1000 between 1975 and 1986, a peak war year. The factors by which political crises affect mortality so profoundly remain to be explained, but particular attention should be given to studying the health sector.

Effectiveness of Mechanisms and Models of Coordination between Organizations, Agencies and Bodies Providing or Financing Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Akl, Elie A; El-Jardali, Fadi; Bou Karroum, Lama; El-Eid, Jamale; Brax, Hneine; Akik, Chaza; Osman, Mona; Hassan, Ghayda; Itani, Mira; Farha, Aida; Pottie, Kevin; Oliver, Sandy

2015-01-01

Effective coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services in humanitarian crises is required to ensure efficiency of services, avoid duplication, and improve equity. The objective of this review was to assess how, during and after humanitarian crises, different mechanisms and models of coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services compare in terms of access to health services and health outcomes. We registered a protocol for this review in PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews under number PROSPERO2014:CRD42014009267. Eligible studies included randomized and nonrandomized designs, process evaluations and qualitative methods. We electronically searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and the WHO Global Health Library and websites of relevant organizations. We followed standard systematic review methodology for the selection, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. We assessed the quality of evidence using the GRADE approach. Of 14,309 identified citations from databases and organizations' websites, we identified four eligible studies. Two studies used mixed-methods, one used quantitative methods, and one used qualitative methods. The available evidence suggests that information coordination between bodies providing health services in humanitarian crises settings may be effective in improving health systems inputs. There is additional evidence suggesting that management/directive coordination such as the cluster model may improve health system inputs in addition to access to health services. None of the included studies assessed coordination through common representation and framework coordination. The evidence was judged to be of very low quality. This systematic review provides evidence of possible effectiveness of information coordination and management/directive coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services in humanitarian crises. Our findings can inform the research agenda and highlight the need for improving conduct and reporting of research in this field.

Use of verbal autopsy and social autopsy in humanitarian crises

PubMed Central

Balabanova, Dina

2018-01-01

Introduction Two billion people live in countries affected by conflict, violence and fragility. These are exceptional situations in which mortality shifts dramatically and in which civil registration and vital statistics systems are often weakened or cease to function. Verbal autopsy and social autopsy (VA and SA) are methods used to assign causes of death and understand the contexts in which these occur, in settings where information is otherwise unavailable. This review sought to explore the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises, with a focus on how these approaches are used to inform policy and programme responses. Methods A rapid scoping review was conducted on the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises in low and middle-income countries since 1991. Drawing on a maximum variation approach, two settings of application (‘application contexts’) were selected and investigated via nine semi-structured expert interviews. Results VA can determine causes of death in crisis-affected populations where no other registration system is in place. Combined with SA and active community involvement, these methods can deliver a holistic view of obstacles to seeking and receiving essential healthcare, yielding context-specific information to inform appropriate responses. The contexts in which VA and SA are used require adaptations to standard tools, and new mobile developments in VA raise specific ethical considerations. Furthermore, collecting and sythesising data in a timely, continuous manner, and ensuring coordination and communication between agencies, is important to realise the potential of these approaches. Conclusion VA and SA are valuable research methods to foster evidence-informed responses for populations affected by humanitarian crises. When coordinated and communicated effectively, data generated through these methods can help to identify levels, causes and circumstances of deaths among vulnerable groups, and can enable planning and allocating resources effectively, potentially improving health system resilience to future crises. PMID:29736275

A long way to go: a systematic review to assess the utilisation of sexual and reproductive health services during humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Singh, Neha S; Aryasinghe, Sarindi; Smith, James; Khosla, Rajat; Say, Lale; Blanchet, Karl

2018-01-01

Women and girls are affected significantly in both sudden and slow-onset emergencies, and face multiple sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges in humanitarian crises contexts. There are an estimated 26 million women and girls of reproductive age living in humanitarian crises settings, all of whom need access to SRH information and services. This systematic review aimed to assess the utilisation of services of SRH interventions from the onset of emergencies in low- and middle-income countries. We searched for both quantitative and qualitative studies in peer-reviewed journals across the following four databases: EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE and PsychINFO from 1 January 1980 to 10 April 2017. Primary outcomes of interest included self-reported use and/or confirmed use of the Minimum Initial Service Package services and abortion services. Two authors independently extracted and analysed data from published papers on the effect of SRH interventions on a range of SRH care utilisation outcomes from the onset of emergencies, and used a narrative synthesis approach. Of the 2404 identified citations, 23 studies met the inclusion criteria. 52.1% of the studies (n=12) used quasi-experimental study designs, which provided some statistical measure of difference between intervention and outcome. 39.1% of the studies (n=9) selected were graded as high quality, 39.1% moderate quality (n=9) and 17.4% low quality (n=4). Evidence of effectiveness in increasing service utilisation was available for the following interventions: peer-led and interpersonal education and mass media campaigns, community-based programming and three-tiered network of community-based reproductive and maternal health providers. Despite increased attention to SRH service provision in humanitarian crises settings, the evidence base is still very limited. More implementation research is required to identify interventions to increase utilisation of SRH services in diverse humanitarian crises settings and populations.

Effectiveness of Mechanisms and Models of Coordination between Organizations, Agencies and Bodies Providing or Financing Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Akl, Elie A.; El-Jardali, Fadi; Bou Karroum, Lama; El-Eid, Jamale; Brax, Hneine; Akik, Chaza; Osman, Mona; Hassan, Ghayda; Itani, Mira; Farha, Aida; Pottie, Kevin; Oliver, Sandy

2015-01-01

Background Effective coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services in humanitarian crises is required to ensure efficiency of services, avoid duplication, and improve equity. The objective of this review was to assess how, during and after humanitarian crises, different mechanisms and models of coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services compare in terms of access to health services and health outcomes. Methods We registered a protocol for this review in PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews under number PROSPERO2014:CRD42014009267. Eligible studies included randomized and nonrandomized designs, process evaluations and qualitative methods. We electronically searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and the WHO Global Health Library and websites of relevant organizations. We followed standard systematic review methodology for the selection, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. We assessed the quality of evidence using the GRADE approach. Results Of 14,309 identified citations from databases and organizations' websites, we identified four eligible studies. Two studies used mixed-methods, one used quantitative methods, and one used qualitative methods. The available evidence suggests that information coordination between bodies providing health services in humanitarian crises settings may be effective in improving health systems inputs. There is additional evidence suggesting that management/directive coordination such as the cluster model may improve health system inputs in addition to access to health services. None of the included studies assessed coordination through common representation and framework coordination. The evidence was judged to be of very low quality. Conclusion This systematic review provides evidence of possible effectiveness of information coordination and management/directive coordination between organizations, agencies and bodies providing or financing health services in humanitarian crises. Our findings can inform the research agenda and highlight the need for improving conduct and reporting of research in this field. PMID:26332670

A long way to go: a systematic review to assess the utilisation of sexual and reproductive health services during humanitarian crises

PubMed Central

Aryasinghe, Sarindi; Smith, James; Khosla, Rajat; Say, Lale; Blanchet, Karl

2018-01-01

Introduction Women and girls are affected significantly in both sudden and slow-onset emergencies, and face multiple sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges in humanitarian crises contexts. There are an estimated 26 million women and girls of reproductive age living in humanitarian crises settings, all of whom need access to SRH information and services. This systematic review aimed to assess the utilisation of services of SRH interventions from the onset of emergencies in low- and middle-income countries. Methods We searched for both quantitative and qualitative studies in peer-reviewed journals across the following four databases: EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE and PsychINFO from 1 January 1980 to 10 April 2017. Primary outcomes of interest included self-reported use and/or confirmed use of the Minimum Initial Service Package services and abortion services. Two authors independently extracted and analysed data from published papers on the effect of SRH interventions on a range of SRH care utilisation outcomes from the onset of emergencies, and used a narrative synthesis approach. Results Of the 2404 identified citations, 23 studies met the inclusion criteria. 52.1% of the studies (n=12) used quasi-experimental study designs, which provided some statistical measure of difference between intervention and outcome. 39.1% of the studies (n=9) selected were graded as high quality, 39.1% moderate quality (n=9) and 17.4% low quality (n=4). Evidence of effectiveness in increasing service utilisation was available for the following interventions: peer-led and interpersonal education and mass media campaigns, community-based programming and three-tiered network of community-based reproductive and maternal health providers. Conclusions Despite increased attention to SRH service provision in humanitarian crises settings, the evidence base is still very limited. More implementation research is required to identify interventions to increase utilisation of SRH services in diverse humanitarian crises settings and populations. PMID:29736272

Hospital admissions for hypertensive crisis in the emergency departments: a large multicenter Italian study.

PubMed

Pinna, Giuliano; Pascale, Claudio; Fornengo, Paolo; Arras, Sebastiana; Piras, Carmela; Panzarasa, Pietro; Carmosino, Gianpaolo; Franza, Orietta; Semeraro, Vincenzo; Lenti, Salvatore; Pietrelli, Susanna; Panzone, Sergio; Bracco, Christian; Fiorini, Roberto; Rastelli, Giovanni; Bergandi, Daniela; Zampaglione, Bruno; Musso, Roberto; Marengo, Claudio; Santoro, Giancarlo; Zamboni, Sergio; Traversa, Barbara; Barattini, Maddalena; Bruno, Graziella

2014-01-01

Epidemiological data on the impact of hypertensive crises (emergencies and urgencies) on referral to the Emergency Departments (EDs) are lacking, in spite of the evidence that they may be life-threatening conditions. We performed a multicenter study to identify all patients aged 18 years and over who were admitted to 10 Italian EDs during 2009 for hypertensive crises (systolic blood pressure ≥220 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥120 mmHg). We classified patients as affected by either hypertensive emergencies or hypertensive urgencies depending on the presence or the absence of progressive target organ damage, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was then performed to assess variables independently associated with hypertensive emergencies with respect to hypertensive urgencies. Of 333,407 patients admitted to the EDs over the one-year period, 1,546 had hypertensive crises (4.6/1,000, 95% CI 4.4-4.9), and 23% of them had unknown hypertension. Hypertensive emergencies (n = 391, 25.3% of hypertensive crises) were acute pulmonary edema (30.9%), stroke (22.0%,), myocardial infarction (17.9%), acute aortic dissection (7.9%), acute renal failure (5.9%) and hypertensive encephalopathy (4.9%). Men had higher frequency than women of unknown hypertension (27.9% vs 18.5%, p<0.001). Even among known hypertensive patients, a larger proportion of men than women reported not taking anti-hypertensive drug (12.6% among men and 9.4% among women (p<0.001). Compared to women of similar age, men had higher likelihood of having hypertensive emergencies than urgencies (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.06-1.70), independently of presenting symptoms, creatinine, smoking habit and known hypertension. This study shows that hypertensive crises involved almost 5 out of 1,000 patients-year admitted to EDs. Sex differences in frequencies of unknown hypertension, compliance to treatment and risk of hypertensive emergencies might have implications for public health programs.

Hospital Admissions for Hypertensive Crisis in the Emergency Departments: A Large Multicenter Italian Study

PubMed Central

Pinna, Giuliano; Pascale, Claudio; Fornengo, Paolo; Arras, Sebastiana; Piras, Carmela; Panzarasa, Pietro; Carmosino, Gianpaolo; Franza, Orietta; Semeraro, Vincenzo; Lenti, Salvatore; Pietrelli, Susanna; Panzone, Sergio; Bracco, Christian; Fiorini, Roberto; Rastelli, Giovanni; Bergandi, Daniela; Zampaglione, Bruno; Musso, Roberto; Marengo, Claudio; Santoro, Giancarlo; Zamboni, Sergio; Traversa, Barbara; Barattini, Maddalena; Bruno, Graziella

2014-01-01

Epidemiological data on the impact of hypertensive crises (emergencies and urgencies) on referral to the Emergency Departments (EDs) are lacking, in spite of the evidence that they may be life-threatening conditions. We performed a multicenter study to identify all patients aged 18 years and over who were admitted to 10 Italian EDs during 2009 for hypertensive crises (systolic blood pressure ≥220 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥120 mmHg). We classified patients as affected by either hypertensive emergencies or hypertensive urgencies depending on the presence or the absence of progressive target organ damage, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was then performed to assess variables independently associated with hypertensive emergencies with respect to hypertensive urgencies. Of 333,407 patients admitted to the EDs over the one-year period, 1,546 had hypertensive crises (4.6/1,000, 95% CI 4.4–4.9), and 23% of them had unknown hypertension. Hypertensive emergencies (n = 391, 25.3% of hypertensive crises) were acute pulmonary edema (30.9%), stroke (22.0%,), myocardial infarction (17.9%), acute aortic dissection (7.9%), acute renal failure (5.9%) and hypertensive encephalopathy (4.9%). Men had higher frequency than women of unknown hypertension (27.9% vs 18.5%, p<0.001). Even among known hypertensive patients, a larger proportion of men than women reported not taking anti-hypertensive drug (12.6% among men and 9.4% among women (p<0.001). Compared to women of similar age, men had higher likelihood of having hypertensive emergencies than urgencies (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.06–1.70), independently of presenting symptoms, creatinine, smoking habit and known hypertension. This study shows that hypertensive crises involved almost 5 out of 1,000 patients-year admitted to EDs. Sex differences in frequencies of unknown hypertension, compliance to treatment and risk of hypertensive emergencies might have implications for public health programs. PMID:24695800

[Adolescent crises in puberty. Diagnosis and therapy (author's transl)].

PubMed

Müller-Küppers, M

1979-08-24

Psychological disorders which become manifest as adolescent crises must be seen as complex phenomena and treated thoroughly: besides the genetic, biographic and psychosocial background of the youthful individual the cultural and economic aspects play an important role. Nevertheless we must admit that associated causal explanations, e.g. for accelerated or late development are lacking. Focal points for the subsequent symptom complexes of sexual behavior in puberty are: psychosexual prematurity or retardation, masturbation, homosexual relations, pubertal asceticism and premature and frequently changing sexual relations.

[Hypertensive crisis in kidney patients].

PubMed

Scrivano, Jacopo; Giuliani, Anna; Pettorini, Laura; Punzo, Giorgio; Mene', Paolo; Pirozzi, Nicola

2011-01-01

The classification and management of hypertensive crisis have been recently reviewed in the context of both European and American guidelines. The key points for proper blood pressure control in severe arterial hypertension are: 1 - Distinction between urgent intervention and emergencies 2 - Choice of the best drug(s) 3 - Choice of the correct route of administration. In patients with renal disease, beside the common causes of hypertension/ hypertensive crises, kidney-specific causes should be taken into account such as renal parenchymal hypertension, renovascular hypertension, sclerodermic crises, and preeclampsia.

Probing chemical space of tick-borne encephalitis virus reproduction inhibitors with organoselenium compounds.

PubMed

Orlov, Alexey A; Eletskaya, Anastasia A; Frolov, Konstantin A; Golinets, Anastasia D; Palyulin, Vladimir A; Krivokolysko, Sergey G; Kozlovskaya, Liubov I; Dotsenko, Victor V; Osolodkin, Dmitry I

2018-06-01

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), a member of the genus Flavivirus, is the leading cause of arboviral neuroinfections in Europe. Only a few classes of the nucleoside and non-nucleoside inhibitors were investigated against TBEV reproduction. Paving the way to previously unexplored areas of anti-TBEV chemical space, we assessed the inhibition of TBEV reproduction in the plaque reduction assay by various compounds derived from cyanothioacetamide and cyanoselenoacetamide. Compounds from seven classes, including 4-(alkylthio)-2-aryl-3-azaspiro[5.5]undec-4-ene-1,1,5-tricarbonitriles, 3-arylamino-2-(selenazol-2-yl)acrylonitriles, ethyl 6-(alkylseleno)-5-cyano-2-oxo-1,2-dihydropyridine-3-carboxylates, 6-(alkylseleno)-2-oxo-1,4,5,6-tetrahydropyridine-3-carbonitriles, 2-(alkylseleno)-5-oxo-1,4,5,6,7,8-hexahydroquinoline-3-carbonitriles, 8-selenoxo-3,5,7,11-tetraazatricyclo[7.3.1.0 2,7 ]tridec-2-ene-1,9-dicarbonitriles, and selenolo[2,3-b]quinolines, inhibited TBEV reproduction with EC 50 values in the micromolar range while showing moderate cytotoxicity and no inhibition of enterovirus reproduction. Thus, new scaffolds with promising anti-TBEV activity were found. © 2018 Deutsche Pharmazeutische Gesellschaft.

Simultaneous Visualization of Different Utility Networks for Disaster Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semm, S.; Becker, T.; Kolbe, T. H.

2012-07-01

Cartographic visualizations of crises are used to create a Common Operational Picture (COP) and enforce Situational Awareness by presenting and representing relevant information. As nearly all crises affect geospatial entities, geo-data representations have to support location-specific decision-making throughout the crises. Since, Operator's attention span and their working memory are limiting factors for the process of getting and interpreting information; the cartographic presentation has to support individuals in coordinating their activities and with handling highly dynamic situations. The Situational Awareness of operators in conjunction with a COP are key aspects of the decision making process and essential for coming to appropriate decisions. Utility networks are one of the most complex and most needed systems within a city. The visualization of utility infrastructure in crisis situations is addressed in this paper. The paper will provide a conceptual approach on how to simplify, aggregate, and visualize multiple utility networks and their components to meet the requirements of the decision-making process and to support Situational Awareness.

Institutional and relational determinants in high- and medium-extent food product crises: the inner perspective of a public health crisis.

PubMed

Charlebois, Sylvain; Horan, Hilary

2010-08-01

In 2008, Canada enacted its biggest-ever food recall in response to a Listeria crisis, stemming from a Maple Leaf Foods plant, that killed 22 Canadians. Afterwards, Maple Leaf's market share quickly returned to pre-crisis levels, but the long-term repercussions of the scare still reverberate in Maple Leaf's brand. In this case study, which offers an organizational perspective on the food recall, data was collected, through in-depth interviews of persons involved in the crisis response, and analyzed. The aim of this paper is to make transparent the ways in which Maple Leaf Foods organized their resources to manage the 2008 food recall. Results reveal that institutional and relational determinants are the most important factors in high- and medium-extent food product crises, whereas external and internal effects primarily influence an organization's capacity to cope with severe crises. Based on these findings, a conceptual framework is presented and managerial implications are discussed.

Introduction: evidence-based action in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Dijkzeul, Dennis; Hilhorst, Dorothea; Walker, Peter

2013-07-01

This introductory paper sets the stage for this special issue of Disasters on evidence-based action in humanitarian crises. It reviews definition(s) of evidence and it examines the different disciplinary and methodological approaches to collecting and analysing evidence. In humanitarian action, the need for evidence-based approaches sometimes is viewed in tension with a principled approach, often unnecessarily. Choosing appropriate research methods depends on the objectives of the researcher, in particular whether the research focuses on the intervention and/or the context and the length and complexity of the causal chains involved. The paper concludes by defining some trends in evidence-based approaches in crises: the move away from inputs and outputs of humanitarian action towards outcomes and impacts; the shift towards a higher degree of partnerships in research, and the participation of users and target groups; and the acceptance of a broad array of approaches to establish evidence. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Non-criticality of interaction network over system's crises: A percolation analysis.

PubMed

Shirazi, Amir Hossein; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Hosseiny, Ali; Amirzadeh, Ehsan; Toranj Simin, Pourya

2017-11-20

Extraction of interaction networks from multi-variate time-series is one of the topics of broad interest in complex systems. Although this method has a wide range of applications, most of the previous analyses have focused on the pairwise relations. Here we establish the potential of such a method to elicit aggregated behavior of the system by making a connection with the concepts from percolation theory. We study the dynamical interaction networks of a financial market extracted from the correlation network of indices, and build a weighted network. In correspondence with the percolation model, we find that away from financial crises the interaction network behaves like a critical random network of Erdős-Rényi, while close to a financial crisis, our model deviates from the critical random network and behaves differently at different size scales. We perform further analysis to clarify that our observation is not a simple consequence of the growth in correlations over the crises.

We all lost the Cold War

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lebow, R.N.; Stein, J.G.

1994-12-31

The purpose of the book is to use the experience of two actual Cold War crises to test the hypothesis that it was the U.S. strategy of deterrence that was primarily responsible for preventing war with the Soviet Union and teaching them that aggression would not pay. The two crises; the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and the Middle East crisis of 1973 have been widely interpreted as victories for U.S. deterence strategy. The authors draw on sources that were previously unavailable, both documents and interviews. The authors show that it was the fear of any nuclear use, not quantitativemore » assessments of the nuclear balance, that deterred both Soviet and American leaders in the two crises examined. Each side believed that the loss of even a single city was unacceptable. This implies that the benefits of nuclear weapons derive from their ability to annihilate cities. A policy of finite deterence would rely almost exclusively on this threat to civilians, raising further moral questions.« less

Finite-time singularities in the dynamics of Mexican financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos

2004-01-01

Historically, symptoms of Mexican financial crises have been strongly reflected in the dynamics of the Mexican peso to the dollar exchange currency market. Specifically, in the Mexican financial crises during 1990's, the peso suffered significant depreciation processes, which has important impacts in the macro- and micro-economical environment. In this paper, it is shown that the peso depreciation growth was greater than an exponential and that these growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occurring at a critical time, which signals an abrupt transition to new dynamical conditions. As in the major 1990's financial crisis in 1994-1995, some control actions (e.g., increasing the USA dollar supply) are commonly taken to decelerate the degree of abruptness of peso depreciation. Implications of these control actions on the crisis dynamics are discussed. Interestingly, by means of a simple model, it is demonstrated that the time at which the control actions begin to apply is critical to moderate the adverse effects of the financial crisis.

Effects of nutritional stress and socio-economic status on maternal mortality in six German villages, 1766-1863.

PubMed

Scalone, Francesco

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of nutritional stress on maternal mortality arising from short-term economic crises in eighteenth-century and nineteenth-century Germany, and how these effects might have been mitigated by socio-economic status. Historical data from six German villages were used to assess how socio-economic conditions and short-term economic crises following poor harvests may have affected maternal mortality. The results show that 1 year after an increase in grain prices the risk of maternal death increased significantly amongst the wives of those working outside the agricultural sector, and more so than for the wives of those working on farms. Nutritional crises seem to have had a significantly stronger impact on maternal mortality in the period 2-6 weeks after childbirth, when mothers were most prone to infections and indirect, obstetrical causes of maternal death. The findings indicate that both nutritional stress and socio-economic factors contributed to maternal mortality.

Dynamic changes of striatal and extrastriatal abnormalities in glutaric aciduria type I.

PubMed

Harting, Inga; Neumaier-Probst, Eva; Seitz, Angelika; Maier, Esther M; Assmann, Birgit; Baric, Ivo; Troncoso, Monica; Mühlhausen, Chris; Zschocke, Johannes; Boy, Nikolas P S; Hoffmann, Georg F; Garbade, Sven F; Kölker, Stefan

2009-07-01

In glutaric aciduria type I, an autosomal recessive disease of mitochondrial lysine, hydroxylysine and tryptophan catabolism, striatal lesions are characteristically induced by acute encephalopathic crises during a finite period of brain development (age 3-36 months). The frequency of striatal injury is significantly less in patients diagnosed as asymptomatic newborns by newborn screening. Most previous studies have focused on the onset and mechanism of striatal injury, whereas little is known about neuroradiological abnormalities in pre-symptomatically diagnosed patients and about dynamic changes of extrastriatal abnormalities. Thus, the major aim of the present retrospective study was to improve our understanding of striatal and extrastriatal abnormalities in affected individuals including those diagnosed by newborn screening. To this end, we systematically analysed magnetic resonance imagings (MRIs) in 38 patients with glutaric aciduria type I diagnosed before or after the manifestation of neurological symptoms. To identify brain regions that are susceptible to cerebral injury during acute encephalopathic crises, we compared the frequency of magnetic resonance abnormalities in patients with and without such crises. Major specific changes after encephalopathic crises were found in the putamen (P < 0.001), nucleus caudatus (P < 0.001), globus pallidus (P = 0.012) and ventricles (P = 0.001). Analysis of empirical cumulative distribution frequencies, however, demonstrated that isolated pallidal abnormalities did not significantly differ over time in both groups (P = 0.544) suggesting that isolated pallidal abnormalities are not induced by acute crises--in contrast to striatal abnormalities. The manifestation of motor disability was associated with signal abnormalities in putamen, caudate, pallidum and ventricles. In addition, we found a large number of extrastriatal abnormalities in patients with and without preceding encephalophatic crises. These abnormalities include widening of anterior temporal and sylvian CSF spaces, pseudocysts, signal changes of substantia nigra, nucleus dentatus, thalamus, tractus tegmentalis centralis and supratentorial white matter as well as signs of delayed maturation (myelination and gyral pattern). In contrast to the striatum, extrastriatal abnormalities were variable and could regress or even normalize with time. This includes widening of sylvian fissures, delayed maturation, pallidal signal changes and pseudocysts. Based on these results, we hypothesize that neuroradiological abnormalities and neurological symptoms in glutaric aciduria type I can be explained by overlaying episodes of cerebral alterations including maturational delay of the brain in utero, acute striatal injury during a vulnerable period in infancy and chronic progressive changes that may continue lifelong. This may have widespread consequences for the pathophysiological understanding of this disease, long-term outcomes and therapeutic considerations.

Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2016-02-01

This paper examines the long memory behavior in the volatility of gold returns using daily data for the period 1985-2009. We divided the whole sample into eight sub-samples in order to analyze the robustness and consistency of our results during different crisis periods. This constitutes our main contribution. We cover four major world crises, namely, (i) the US stock market crash of 1987; (ii) the Asian financial crisis of 1997; (iii) the World Trade Center terrorist attack of 2001 and finally, (iv) the sub-prime crisis of 2007, in order to investigate how the fractional integrated parameter of the FIGARCH(1, d,1) model evolves over time. Our findings are twofold: (i) there is evidence of long memory in the conditional variance over the whole sample period; (ii) when we consider the sub-sample analysis, the results show mixed evidence. Thus, for the 1985-2003 period the long memory parameter is positive and statistically significant in the pre-crisis sub-samples, and there is no evidence of long memory in the crisis sub-sample periods; however the reverse pattern occurs for the 2005-2009 period. This highlights the unique characteristics of the 2007 sub-prime crisis.

Time-localized wavelet multiple regression and correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Macho, Javier

2018-02-01

This paper extends wavelet methodology to handle comovement dynamics of multivariate time series via moving weighted regression on wavelet coefficients. The concept of wavelet local multiple correlation is used to produce one single set of multiscale correlations along time, in contrast with the large number of wavelet correlation maps that need to be compared when using standard pairwise wavelet correlations with rolling windows. Also, the spectral properties of weight functions are investigated and it is argued that some common time windows, such as the usual rectangular rolling window, are not satisfactory on these grounds. The method is illustrated with a multiscale analysis of the comovements of Eurozone stock markets during this century. It is shown how the evolution of the correlation structure in these markets has been far from homogeneous both along time and across timescales featuring an acute divide across timescales at about the quarterly scale. At longer scales, evidence from the long-term correlation structure can be interpreted as stable perfect integration among Euro stock markets. On the other hand, at intramonth and intraweek scales, the short-term correlation structure has been clearly evolving along time, experiencing a sharp increase during financial crises which may be interpreted as evidence of financial 'contagion'.

UAV Deployment Exercise for Mapping Purposes: Evaluation of Emergency Response Applications.

PubMed

Boccardo, Piero; Chiabrando, Filiberto; Dutto, Furio; Tonolo, Fabio Giulio; Lingua, Andrea

2015-07-02

Exploiting the decrease of costs related to UAV technology, the humanitarian community started piloting the use of similar systems in humanitarian crises several years ago in different application fields, i.e., disaster mapping and information gathering, community capacity building, logistics and even transportation of goods. Part of the author's group, composed of researchers in the field of applied geomatics, has been piloting the use of UAVs since 2006, with a specific focus on disaster management application. In the framework of such activities, a UAV deployment exercise was jointly organized with the Regional Civil Protection authority, mainly aimed at assessing the operational procedures to deploy UAVs for mapping purposes and the usability of the acquired data in an emergency response context. In the paper the technical features of the UAV platforms will be described, comparing the main advantages/disadvantages of fixed-wing versus rotor platforms. The main phases of the adopted operational procedure will be discussed and assessed especially in terms of time required to carry out each step, highlighting potential bottlenecks and in view of the national regulation framework, which is rapidly evolving. Different methodologies for the processing of the acquired data will be described and discussed, evaluating the fitness for emergency response applications.

Health crises and media relations: relationship management-by-fire.

PubMed

Springston, Jeffrey K; Weaver-Lariscy, Ruthann

2007-01-01

Media relations is an important function in the operation of any health organization, yet it is often relegated as a simple task function. Such an orientation can be problematic, particularly in times of crisis. This article provides an overview of some of the inherent internal conflicts within health organizations that may mitigate against the best media relations practices in times of crises. The article surveys some of the predominant theoretical models used for crisis management, and suggests directions for the further development of media relations and crisis communication theory and practice.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nation, J.E.

Whether and by what means nations can successfully de-escalate nuclear crises - and avoid the disastrous effects of nuclear war - will remain two of the most critical challenges facing humankind. Whatever the future of superpower relations, the United States, the Soviet Union, and other nations will undoubtedly continue to possess and to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the number of nations with nuclear weapons seems likely to increase. This examines how nations in crises might successfully move back from the brink of nuclear war - and how confidence-building measures might help and hinder the de-escalatory process.

Identifying humanitarian crises in population surveillance field sites: simple procedures and ethical imperatives.

PubMed

Fottrell, E; Byass, P

2009-02-01

Effective early warning systems of humanitarian crises may help to avert substantial increases in mortality and morbidity, and prevent major population movements. The Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) in Ethiopia has maintained a programme of epidemiological surveillance since 1987. Inspection of the BRHP data revealed large peaks of mortality in 1998 and 1999, well in excess of the normally observed year-to-year variation. Further investigation and enquiry revealed that these peaks related to a measles epidemic, and a serious episode of drought and consequent food insecurity that went undetected by the BRHP. This paper applies international humanitarian crisis threshold definitions to the BRHP data in an attempt to identify suitable mortality thresholds that may be used for the prospective detection of humanitarian crises in population surveillance sites in developing countries. Empirical investigation using secondary analysis of longitudinal population-based cohort data. The daily, weekly and monthly thresholds for crises in Butajira were applied to mortality data for the 5-year period incorporating the crisis periods of 1998-1999. Days, weeks and months in which mortality exceeded each threshold level were identified. Each threshold level was assessed in terms of prospectively identifying the true crisis periods in a timely manner whilst avoiding false alarms. The daily threshold definition is too sensitive to accurately detect impending or real crises in the population surveillance setting of the BRHP. However, the weekly threshold level is useful in identifying important increases in mortality in a timely manner without the excessive sensitivity of the daily threshold. The weekly threshold level detects the crisis periods approximately 2 weeks before the monthly threshold level. Mortality measures are highly specific indicators of the health status of populations, and simple procedures can be used to apply international crisis threshold definitions in population surveillance settings for the prospective detection of important changes in mortality rate. Standards for the timely use of surveillance data and ethical responsibilities of those responsible for the data should be made explicit to improve the public health functioning of current sentinel surveillance methodologies.

[Correlations between asthmatic crisis and meteorological conditions in Rosario, Argentina].

PubMed

Arnolt, R G; Hoffmann, J A; Daguerre, N; Calcagno, L J

1984-01-01

The aim of this work was to find out whether there is any relationship between the climate in Rosario City, Argentina, and the frequency of asthmatic crises, and whether it would be possible to use weather forecasts to support therapeutic measures. Synoptic and statistical metereological analyses, were used, and the following results achieved: The 721 crises of asthma developed in Rosario City between August 1, 1978 and July 31, 1979, demonstrated the well-known seasonal distribution of similar biological events: high frequencies in the Spring and Fall and low ones in the Summer and Winter. Important correlations were found with high altitude depression systems Hence, in the great majority of cases, the daily frequency of crises attained its maximum values when a depression system in the 500 mb. level was approximately between 60 degrees and 72 degrees W of G. and returned to minimum values when the mentioned system, in its general displacement towards the east, passed the meridian of Rosario City, whose geographic coordinates are: Lat. 32 degrees 55' S, Long. 60 degrees 47' W of G., at 27 meters above sea level. In short, we can say that, as occurs in other parts of the world, the asthmatic crises undergone by children in Rosario City are produced with much more frequency in circumstances of cyclonic atmospheric circulation. Although these situations, in the case of Rosario City, are determined by the dynamic processes in the higher levels of the troposphere. This is probably due to the role played by the Andres Mountain Range in the processes of atmospheric circulation in subtropical South America.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

How do people with long-term mental health problems negotiate relationships with network members at times of crisis?

PubMed

Walker, Sandra; Kennedy, Anne; Vassilev, Ivaylo; Rogers, Anne

2018-02-01

Social network processes impact on the genesis and management of mental health problems. There is currently less understanding of the way people negotiate networked relationships in times of crisis compared to how they manage at other times. This paper explores the patterns and nature of personal network involvement at times of crises and how these may differ from day-to-day networks of recovery and maintenance. Semi-structured interviews with 25 participants with a diagnosis of long-term mental health (MH) problems drawn from recovery settings in the south of England. Interviews centred on personal network mapping of members and resources providing support. The mapping interviews explored the work of network members and changes in times of crisis. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using a framework analysis. Three key themes were identified: the fluidity of network relationality between crisis and recovery; isolation as a means of crises management; leaning towards peer support. Personal network input retreated at times of crisis often as result of "ejection" from the network by participants who used self-isolation as a personal management strategy in an attempt to deal with crises. Peer support is considered useful during a crisis, whilst the role of services was viewed with some ambiguity. Social networks membership, and type and depth of involvement, is subject to change between times of crisis and everyday support. This has implications for managing mental health in terms of engaging with network support differently in times of crises versus recovery and everyday living. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Subsequent biotic crises delayed marine recovery following the late Permian mass extinction event in northern Italy

PubMed Central

Danise, Silvia; Price, Gregory D.; Twitchett, Richard J.

2017-01-01

The late Permian mass extinction event was the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic and has the longest recovery interval of any extinction event. It has been hypothesised that subsequent carbon isotope perturbations during the Early Triassic are associated with biotic crises that impeded benthic recovery. We test this hypothesis by undertaking the highest-resolution study yet made of the rock and fossil records of the entire Werfen Formation, Italy. Here, we show that elevated extinction rates were recorded not only in the Dienerian, as previously recognised, but also around the Smithian/Spathian boundary. Functional richness increases across the Smithian/Spathian boundary associated with elevated origination rates in the lower Spathian. The taxonomic and functional composition of benthic faunas only recorded two significant changes: (1) reduced heterogeneity in the Dienerian, and (2) and a faunal turnover across the Smithian/Spathian boundary. The elevated extinctions and compositional shifts in the Dienerian and across the Smithian/Spathian boundary are associated with a negative and positive isotope excursion, respectively, which supports the hypothesis that subsequent biotic crises are associated with carbon isotope shifts. The Spathian fauna represents a more advanced ecological state, not recognised in the previous members of the Werfen Formation, with increased habitat differentiation, a shift in the dominant modes of life, appearance of stenohaline taxa and the occupation of the erect and infaunal tiers. In addition to subsequent biotic crises delaying the recovery, therefore, persistent environmental stress limited the ecological complexity of benthic recovery prior to the Spathian. PMID:28296886

Health crises due to infectious and communicable diseases : European preparedness and response tools in an international context.

PubMed

Mahy, Patrick; Collard, Jean-Marc; Gala, Jean-Luc; Herman, Philippe; Groof, Dirk De; Quoilin, Sophie; Sneyers, Myriam

2017-06-01

The combination of changes in eating habits, ways of living, globalisation, extensive travelling and the migration of millions of people around the world may be contributing to increased health risks. Certainly, health crises today are proving highly complex. More and more people are travelling and may carry with them unexpected virus vectors such as mosquitoes. Preparedness is challenging and there is a need for action plans to safeguard the growing at-risk population. Health crises can potentially affect a large proportion of the population and may lead to a significant increase in mortality or to an abnormally high death rate. This should be integrated into the general concept of national and international surveillance in order to provide a prepared response in the event of crisis. This paper provides an inventory of the relevant laws, guidelines and tools in Europe (and to a lesser degree, beyond), and proposes answers to the health crisis problems associated with infectious and communicable diseases. In crisis management, communication is an important factor to consider. This paper can serve as a tool for people involved in crisis preparedness.

Dynamic of consumer groups and response of commodity markets by principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Alam, Shafiqul; Lee, Jae Woo

2017-09-01

This study investigates financial states and group dynamics by applying principal component analysis to the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns of commodity futures. The eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix in the 6-month timeframe displays similar values during 2010-2011, but decline following 2012. A sharp drop in eigenvalue implies the significant change of the market state. Three commodity sectors, energy, metals and agriculture, are projected into two dimensional spaces consisting of two principal components (PC). We observe that they form three distinct clusters in relation to various sectors. However, commodities with distinct features have intermingled with one another and scattered during severe crises, such as the European sovereign debt crises. We observe the notable change of the position of two dimensional spaces of groups during financial crises. By considering the first principal component (PC1) within the 6-month moving timeframe, we observe that commodities of the same group change states in a similar pattern, and the change of states of one group can be used as a warning for other group.

Age Crises, Scalar Fields, and the Apocalypse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, J. C.

Recent observations suggest that Hubble's constant is large, to the extent that the oldest stars appear to have ages which are greater than the Hubble time, and that the Hubble expansion is slowing down, so that according to conventional cosmology the age of the Universe is less than the Hubble time. The concepts of weak and strong age crises (respectively t0<1/H0 but longer than the age inferred from some lower limit on q0, and t0>1/H0 and q0>0) are introduced. These observations are reconciled in models which are dynamically dominated by a homogeneous scalar field, corresponding to an ultra-light boson whose Compton wavelength is of the same order as the Hubble radius. Two such models are considered, an open one with vacuum energy comprising a conventional cosmological term and a scalar field component, and a flat one with a scalar component only, aimed respectively at weak and strong age crises. Both models suggest that anti-gravity plays a significant role in the evolution of the Universe.

Crisis management, capabilities and preparedness: the case of public hospitals in Iran.

PubMed

Najafbagy, Reza

2010-01-01

Crises occurred in recent decades show that organizations' preparedness to predict and respond to undesired problems is directly related to the degree of their capabilities and preparedness to manage crises in this context, hospitals compared to other organizations are more viable to suffer damages if a crisis occurs. This study investigates the degree of public hospitals capabilities and preparedness to handled possible crises. Responses from hospital managers and directors show that most of them were not familiar with crisis management, while majority of them mentioned that they had crisis management plan and committee in their hospitals. Moreover, most of the respondents believed that if a crisis occurs in the hospital, patients, personnel and documents will be the first victims of the crisis. The study also indicates that having a crisis plan and crisis committee without being familiar with knowledge of crisis management, do not help managers to cope with crisis. Moreover, correlations show that older managers were more familiar with crisis management experiences abroad, and defined responsibilities contributed to setting up crisis committee, and taking crisis seriously.

[Management of hyperglycemic crises and severe hypoglycemia in the emergency department].

PubMed

Miyake, Yasufumi

2014-02-01

The morbidity of hyperglycemic crises and acute hypoglycemic attacks in patients with diabetes mellitus has been increasing for the past several decades. One of the reasons for this is the increase in the number of patients with diabetes. The increased proportion of aging and isolation in society is another reason. The author has discussed patients with these complaints: their epidemiology, pathophysiology, and management in the emergency department. Hyperglycemic crises include diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), hyperosmolar hyperglycemic syndrome (HHS), and lactic acidosis (LA). Younger patients with type 1 diabetes suffer from DKA; inappropriate insulin therapy or infection is usually the trigger. Older patients with type 2 diabetes are at risk of HHS in the course of sepsis or in the perioperative period. The treatment of both types of patients is common. Sufficient amount of intravenous extracellular fluid and constant infusion of insulin are essential. The development of LA is not associated with the use of metformin, but with the severity of the pre-existing disease. Early recognition and aggressive treatment is vital to improving the prognosis of hyperglycemic emergencies and severe hypoglycemic episodes.

Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Avakian, Adam; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2013-05-01

Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making.

Mobile Response Team Saves Lives in Volcano Crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ewert, John W.; Miller, C. Dan; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

1997-01-01

The world's only volcano crisis response team, organized and operated by the USGS, can be quickly mobilized to assess and monitor hazards at volcanoes threatening to erupt. Since 1986, the team has responded to more than a dozen volcano crises as part of the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), a cooperative effort with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the U.S. Agency for International Development. The work of USGS scientists with VDAP has helped save countless lives, and the valuable lessons learned are being used to reduce risks from volcano hazards in the United States.

Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves

PubMed Central

Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Avakian, Adam; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2013-01-01

Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making.

Reaching out to take on TB in Somalia.

PubMed

Moore, David A J; Granat, Simo M

2014-01-01

Among the many challenges facing populations disrupted by complex emergencies, personal security and food security rank much higher than access to healthcare. However, over time health needs assume increasing importance. Many complex crises occur in settings where the background incidence of TB is already high; social and economic conditions in crises are then highly conducive to amplification of the existing TB problem. Innovative approaches to delivery of diagnostic and treatment services, transition planning and integration with other healthcare providers and services are vital. In the extremely challenging environment of Somalia, multiple partners are making headway though collaboration and innovation.

Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry—direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises. PMID:26185988

Improving decision making in crisis.

PubMed

Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

Systematic review of the evidence on the effectiveness of sexual and reproductive health interventions in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Warren, Emily; Post, Nathan; Hossain, Mazeda; Blanchet, Karl; Roberts, Bayard

2015-12-18

This systematic review aims to evaluate evidence on the effectiveness of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) interventions delivered in humanitarian crises. Crisis affected low-income or middle-income countries. Crisis-affected populations in low-income or middle-income countries. Peer-reviewed and grey literature sources were systematically searched for relevant papers detailing interventions from 1 January 1980 until the search date on 30 April 2013. Data from included studies were then extracted, and the papers' quality evaluated using criteria based on modified STROBE and CONSORT checklists. Primary outcomes include, but are not limited to, changes in morbidity, mortality, sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis or gender-based violence. Secondary outcomes include, but are not limited to, reported condom use or skilled attendance at birth. Primary outputs include, but are not limited to, condoms distributed or education courses taught. Of 7149 returned citations, 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Only one randomised controlled trial was identified. The remaining observational studies were of moderate quality, demonstrating limited use of controls and inadequate attempts to address bias. Evidence of effectiveness was available for the following interventions: impregnated bed nets for pregnant women, subsidised refugee healthcare, female community health workers, and tiered community reproductive health services. The limited evidence base for SRH interventions highlights the need for improved research on the effectiveness of public health interventions in humanitarian crises. While interventions proven efficacious in stable settings are being used in humanitarian efforts, more evidence is required to demonstrate the effectiveness of delivering and scaling-up such interventions in humanitarian crises. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Coordinating the Provision of Health Services in Humanitarian Crises: a Systematic Review of Suggested Models.

PubMed

Lotfi, Tamara; Bou-Karroum, Lama; Darzi, Andrea; Hajjar, Rayan; El Rahyel, Ahmed; El Eid, Jamale; Itani, Mira; Brax, Hneine; Akik, Chaza; Osman, Mona; Hassan, Ghayda; El-Jardali, Fadi; Akl, Elie

2016-08-03

Our objective was to identify published models of coordination between entities funding or delivering health services in humanitarian crises, whether the coordination took place during or after the crises. We included reports describing models of coordination in sufficient detail to allow reproducibility. We also included reports describing implementation of identified models, as case studies. We searched Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and the WHO Global Health Library. We also searched websites of relevant organizations. We followed standard systematic review methodology. Our search captured 14,309 citations. The screening process identified 34 eligible papers describing five models of coordination of delivering health services: the "Cluster Approach" (with 16 case studies), the 4Ws "Who is Where, When, doing What" mapping tool (with four case studies), the "Sphere Project" (with two case studies), the "5x5" model (with one case study), and the "model of information coordination" (with one case study). The 4Ws and the 5x5 focus on coordination of services for mental health, the remaining models do not focus on a specific health topic. The Cluster approach appears to be the most widely used. One case study was a mixed implementation of the Cluster approach and the Sphere model. We identified no model of coordination for funding of health service. This systematic review identified five proposed coordination models that have been implemented by entities funding or delivering health service in humanitarian crises. There is a need to compare the effect of these different models on outcomes such as availability of and access to health services.

Exploring Crisis Management in U.S. Small Businesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Jon

As a critical infrastructure, the US electricity grid supplies electricity to 340 million people within eight separate regions. The power infrastructure is vulnerable to many types of disasters capable of severing supplies of electricity. The impact on the employees and communities when small- and medium-size enterprises are shut down due to disasters can be severe. The purpose of the quantitative comparative study was to explore small- and medium-size enterprises crisis management strategies in the case of power infrastructure vulnerabilities. Perceptions of small business leaders were probed about crisis management planning relevant to three secondary factors: prior experience of crises, threat perceptions, and planning self-efficacy. Participants completed an adapted questionnaire instrument based on a five-point Likert scale for six sub-factors including resilience through planning, financial impact, operational crisis management, the perfect storm, the aftermath of survival, and atrophy. The instrument also measured three additional factors to include, prior experience of crises, threat perceptions, and planning self-efficacy, across seven types of crises. The results of this study indicated that of the 276 respondents, 104 had no crisis plans, but 172 did have crisis plans. Of those who had implemented crisis plans, 19% had specific provisions to address power outages or attacks on the electrical grid. Of the respondents who had not planned for power outages nor experienced significant losses of power, a statistically significant number acknowledged an external threat to their business. The majority of respondents indicated that long-term planning was related to resilience; however, the migration of crisis understanding into the planning process or implementation was not implemented. This heightened awareness of potential crises without the corresponding development and implementation of mitigation crisis plans requires additional research to understand drivers effecting the decision making process with crisis managers.

Global bifurcations in fractional-order chaotic systems with an extended generalized cell mapping method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xiaojun; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Tianshui Normal University, Tianshui 741001; Hong, Ling, E-mail: hongling@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

Global bifurcations include sudden changes in chaotic sets due to crises. There are three types of crises defined by Grebogi et al. [Physica D 7, 181 (1983)]: boundary crisis, interior crisis, and metamorphosis. In this paper, by means of the extended generalized cell mapping (EGCM), boundary and interior crises of a fractional-order Duffing system are studied as one of the system parameters or the fractional derivative order is varied. It is found that a crisis can be generally defined as a collision between a chaotic basic set and a basic set, either periodic or chaotic, to cause a sudden discontinuousmore » change in chaotic sets. Here chaotic sets involve three different kinds: a chaotic attractor, a chaotic saddle on a fractal basin boundary, and a chaotic saddle in the interior of a basin and disjoint from the attractor. A boundary crisis results from the collision of a periodic (or chaotic) attractor with a chaotic (or regular) saddle in the fractal (or smooth) boundary. In such a case, the attractor, together with its basin of attraction, is suddenly destroyed as the control parameter passes through a critical value, leaving behind a chaotic saddle in the place of the original attractor and saddle after the crisis. An interior crisis happens when an unstable chaotic set in the basin of attraction collides with a periodic attractor, which causes the appearance of a new chaotic attractor, while the original attractor and the unstable chaotic set are converted to the part of the chaotic attractor after the crisis. These results further demonstrate that the EGCM is a powerful tool to reveal the mechanism of crises in fractional-order systems.« less

Forecasting of magnitude and duration of currency crises based on the analysis of distortions of fractal scaling in exchange rate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritskaya, Olga Y.

2005-05-01

Results of fractal stability analysis of daily exchange rate fluctuations of more than 30 floating currencies for a 10-year period are presented. It is shown for the first time that small- and large-scale dynamical instabilities of national monetary systems correlate with deviations of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) exponent from the value 1.5 predicted by the efficient market hypothesis. The observed dependence is used for classification of long-term stability of floating exchange rates as well as for revealing various forms of distortion of stable currency dynamics prior to large-scale crises. A normal range of DFA exponents consistent with crisis-free long-term exchange rate fluctuations is determined, and several typical scenarios of unstable currency dynamics with DFA exponents fluctuating beyond the normal range are identified. It is shown that monetary crashes are usually preceded by prolonged periods of abnormal (decreased or increased) DFA exponent, with the after-crash exponent tending to the value 1.5 indicating a more reliable exchange rate dynamics. Statistically significant regression relations (R=0.99, p<0.01) between duration and magnitude of currency crises and the degree of distortion of monofractal patterns of exchange rate dynamics are found. It is demonstrated that the parameters of these relations characterizing small- and large-scale crises are nearly equal, which implies a common instability mechanism underlying these events. The obtained dependences have been used as a basic ingredient of a forecasting technique which provided correct in-sample predictions of monetary crisis magnitude and duration over various time scales. The developed technique can be recommended for real-time monitoring of dynamical stability of floating exchange rate systems and creating advanced early-warning-system models for currency crisis prevention.

Role of the police in linking individuals experiencing mental health crises with mental health services

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The police are considered frontline professionals in managing individuals experiencing mental health crises. This study examines the extent to which these individuals are disconnected from mental health services, and whether the police response has an influence on re-establishing contact. Methods Police records were searched for calls regarding individuals with acute mental health needs and police handling of these calls. Mental healthcare contact data were retrieved from a Psychiatric Case Register. Results The police were called upon for mental health crisis situations 492 times within the study year, involving 336 individuals (i.e. 1.7 per 1000 inhabitants per year). Half of these individuals (N=162) were disengaged from mental health services, lacking regular care contact in the year prior to the crisis (apart from contact for crisis intervention). In the month following the crisis, 21% of those who were previously disengaged from services had regular care contact, and this was more frequent (49%) if the police had contacted the mental health services during the crisis. The influence of police referral to the services was still present the following year. However, for the majority (58%) of disengaged individuals police did not contact the mental health services at the time of crisis. Conclusions The police deal with a substantial number of individuals experiencing a mental health crisis, half of whom are out of contact with mental health services, and police play an important role in linking these individuals to services. Training police officers to recognise and handle mental health crises, and implementing practical models of cooperation between the police and mental health services in dealing with such crises may further improve police referral of individuals disengaged from mental health services. PMID:23072687

A 2-1-1 Research Collaboration

PubMed Central

Eddens, Katherine S.; Alcaraz, Kassandra I.; Kreuter, Matthew W.; Rath, Suchitra; Greer, Regina

2012-01-01

Background 2-1-1 serves as a lifeline in times of crises. These crises often cause a spike in call volume that can challenge 2-1-1’s ability to meet their service quality standards. For researchers gathering data through 2-1-1s, a sudden increase in call volume might reduce accrual as 2-1-1 has less time to administer study protocols. Research activities imbedded in 2-1-1 systems may directly affect 2-1-1 service quality indicators. Purpose Using data from a 2-1-1 research collaboration, this paper examines the impact of crises on call volume to 2-1-1, how call volume affects research participant accrual through 2-1-1, and how research recruitment efforts affect 2-1-1 service quality indicators. Methods t-tests were used to examine the effect of call volume on research participant accrual. Linear and logistic regressions were used to examine the effect of research participant accrual on 2-1-1 service quality indicators. Data were collected June 2010–December 2011; data were analyzed in 2012. Results Findings from this collaboration suggest that crises causing spikes in call volume adversely affect 2-1-1 service quality indicators as well as accrual of research participants. Administering a brief (2–3 minute) health risk assessment did not negatively affect service quality, but administering a longer (15–18 minute) survey had a modest adverse effect on these indicators. Conclusions In 2-1-1 research collaborations, both partners need to understand the dynamic relationship between call volume, research accrual, and service quality, and adjust expectations accordingly. If research goals include administering a longer survey, increased staffing of 2-1-1 call centers may be needed to avoid compromising service quality. PMID:23157769

A Systematic Review on Health Resilience to Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Glonti, Ketevan; Gordeev, Vladimir S.; Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Reeves, Aaron; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin; Roberts, Bayard

2015-01-01

Background The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises. Methods We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed. Results From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women’s mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men’s. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours. Conclusions Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience. PMID:25905629

Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-04-01

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as ``early warning signs'' of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior.

Dissociative identity disorder: a feminist approach to inpatient treatment using Jean Baker Miller's Relational Model.

PubMed

Riggs, S R; Bright, M A

1997-08-01

Women diagnosed with Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID) may experience episodic crises characterized by intense states of disconnection from self and others. Crises which result in potential harm to self/others may require inpatient treatment. With economic emphasis on shorter lengths of stay, a treatment program or model which focuses on the DID patient's sense of connectedness to self and others can enhance treatment efforts during brief inpatient hospitalizations. The Relational Model of Jean Baker Miller uses mutuality and empowerment within the therapeutic relationship and inpatient mileu to move the patient beyond therapeutic impasse/crisis toward a state of greater connectedness to self and others.

Resolution of psychosocial crises associated with flying in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suedfeld, Peter; Brcic, Jelena

2011-07-01

Erikson (1959) proposed a theoretical basis for healthy psychosocial development. His theory posits eight critical conflict situations throughout one's lifetime, each of which can result in a favorable or unfavorable resolution. Autobiographies, memoirs, interviews, personal diaries, and oral histories of 97 international astronauts were content analyzed to assess reported resolutions of Erikson's psychosocial crises, regardless of chronological sequence. We made comparisons across flight phases (before, during, and after), gender, nationality of home space agency, and flight duration. Astronauts reported more favorable than unfavorable outcomes across flight phases and demographic variables. Differences across demographic variables and flight phases, as well as the changes as a result of the flight are discussed.

Correlation and network topologies in global and local stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Sungmin; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

2014-07-01

We examined how the correlation and network structure of the global indices and local Korean indices have changed during years 2000-2012. The average correlations of the global indices increased with time, while the local indices showed a decreasing trend except for drastic changes during the crises. A significant change in the network topologies was observed due to the financial crises in both markets. The Jaccard similarities identified the change in the market state due to a crisis in both markets. The dynamic change of the Jaccard index can be used as an indicator of systemic risk or precursors of the crisis.

Preparedness of households and catering establishments for incidents involving radioactive contamination.

PubMed

Enqvist, H

2005-01-01

This short paper describes a number of investigations carried out to ensure preparedness for crises involving radioactivity to catering operations and private households in Finland. The specific recommendations for catering kitchens during crises were published in 1994. A study to determine the level of adherence to these recommendations is summarised here, together with its findings and subsequent recommendations. Another study on the pre-planning of crisis menus is described. New challenges for the catering kitchens are touched upon. A crisis food preparation booklet for households is described and based on consumers' attitudes suggestions are made for how this can be improved in the future.

Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends

PubMed Central

Preis, Tobias; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior. PMID:23619126

Dynamics of financial crises in the world trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askari, Marziyeh; Shirazi, Homayoun; Aghababaei Samani, Keivan

2018-07-01

A simple dynamical model is introduced to simulate the spreading of financial crises in the world trade network. In this model a directed network is constructed in which a weighted and directed link indicates the export value between two countries. The weights are subject to the change by a simple dynamical rule. The process begins with a crisis, i.e. a sudden decrease in the export value of a certain country and spreads throughout the whole network. We compare our results with the real values corresponding to the global financial crisis of 2008 and show that the results of our model are in good agreement with reality.

The reactions to macro-economic crises in Nordic health system policies: Denmark, Finland and Sweden, 1980-2013.

PubMed

Lehto, Juhani; Vrangbæk, Karsten; Winblad, Ulrika

2015-01-01

Denmark, Finland and Sweden have experienced two major recessions during the last 25 years. The adjustments to the earlier crisis in the late 1980s (Denmark) and early 1990s (Finland and Sweden) resembled the policies in many other European countries during the present crisis. The analysis of relationship of deep economic crises and growth period between them to the health system policies and institutions in the three countries from the 1980s to 2013 is based on a categorisation of reactions to external shocks as path conforming or path breaking. The results of the empirical long-term trends show that the reactions to deep recessions have been mainly temporary adjustments and acceleration of changes already prepared before economic crisis. The economic crisis in the three countries has not been 'good enough' to enable paradigmatic changes in the Nordic public, decentralised and equity-oriented health systems. Changes such as the slow privatisation in care funding and production and the adoption of new management practices indicate an ongoing paradigmatic change related to longer-term societal, ideological and political developments rather than directly to economic crises or growth.

Linear and nonlinear market correlations: Characterizing financial crises and portfolio optimization.

PubMed

Haluszczynski, Alexander; Laut, Ingo; Modest, Heike; Räth, Christoph

2017-12-01

Pearson correlation and mutual information-based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of U.S. S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent) turbulent market periods, thus indicating strongly fluctuating interconnections between the stocks of different companies in changing economic environments. A measure for the strength of nonlinear dependencies is derived using surrogate data and leads to interesting observations during periods of financial market crises. In contrast to the expectation that dependencies reduce mainly to linear correlations during crises, we show that (at least in the 2008 crisis) nonlinear effects are significantly increasing. It turns out that the concept of centrality within a network could potentially be used as some kind of an early warning indicator for abnormal market behavior as we demonstrate with the example of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Finally, we apply a Markowitz mean variance portfolio optimization and integrate the measure of nonlinear dependencies to scale the investment exposure. This leads to significant outperformance as compared to a fully invested portfolio.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption onmore » the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)« less

Quick response airborne command post communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaisdell, Randy L.

1988-08-01

National emergencies and strategic crises come in all forms and sizes ranging from natural disasters at one end of the scale up to and including global nuclear warfare at the other. Since the early 1960s the U.S. Government has spent billions of dollars fielding airborne command posts to ensure continuity of government and the command and control function during times of theater conventional, theater nuclear, and global nuclear warfare. Unfortunately, cost has prevented the extension of the airborne command post technology developed for these relatively unlikely events to the lower level, though much more likely to occur, crises such as natural disasters, terrorist acts, political insurgencies, etc. This thesis proposes the implementation of an economical airborne command post concept to address the wide variety of crises ignored by existing military airborne command posts. The system is known as the Quick Response Airborne Command Post (QRAC Post) and is based on the exclusive use of commercially owned and operated aircraft, and commercially available automated data processing and communications resources. The thesis addresses the QRAC Post concept at a systems level and is primarily intended to demonstrate how current technology can be exploited to economically achieve a national objective.

Integrated management of land and water resources based on a collective approach to fragmented international conventions.

PubMed

Duda, Alfred M

2003-12-29

Interlinked crises of land degradation, food security, ecosystem decline, water quality and water flow depletion stand in the way of poverty reduction and sustainable development. These crises are made worse by increased fluctuations in climatic regimes. Single-purpose international conventions address these crises in a piecemeal, sectoral fashion and may not meet their objectives without greater attention to policy, legal, and institutional reforms related to: (i) balancing competing uses of land and water resources within hydrologic units; (ii) adopting integrated approaches to management; and (iii) establishing effective governance institutions for adaptive management within transboundary basins. This paper describes this global challenge and argues that peace, stability and security are all at stake when integrated approaches are not used. The paper presents encouraging results from a decade of transboundary water projects supported by the Global Environment Facility in developing countries that test practical applications of processes for facilitating reforms related to land and water that are underpinned by science-based approaches. Case studies of using these participative processes are described that collectively assist in the transition to integrated management. A new imperative for incorporating interlinkages among food, water, and environment security at the basin level is identified.

Integrated management of land and water resources based on a collective approach to fragmented international conventions.

PubMed Central

Duda, Alfred M

2003-01-01

Interlinked crises of land degradation, food security, ecosystem decline, water quality and water flow depletion stand in the way of poverty reduction and sustainable development. These crises are made worse by increased fluctuations in climatic regimes. Single-purpose international conventions address these crises in a piecemeal, sectoral fashion and may not meet their objectives without greater attention to policy, legal, and institutional reforms related to: (i) balancing competing uses of land and water resources within hydrologic units; (ii) adopting integrated approaches to management; and (iii) establishing effective governance institutions for adaptive management within transboundary basins. This paper describes this global challenge and argues that peace, stability and security are all at stake when integrated approaches are not used. The paper presents encouraging results from a decade of transboundary water projects supported by the Global Environment Facility in developing countries that test practical applications of processes for facilitating reforms related to land and water that are underpinned by science-based approaches. Case studies of using these participative processes are described that collectively assist in the transition to integrated management. A new imperative for incorporating interlinkages among food, water, and environment security at the basin level is identified. PMID:14728798

The influence of humanitarian crises on social functioning among civilians in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

PubMed

Lahiri, Shaon; van Ommeren, Mark; Roberts, Bayard

2017-12-01

Our aim was to systematically review how social functioning is measured, conceptualised, impacted, and associated with mental disorders in populations affected by humanitarian crises. Quantitative studies conducted with civilian populations affected by humanitarian crises in low- and middle-income countries with outcomes of social functioning were examined up to 2014. Data sources included Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, and Global Health, and 8 grey literature sources, yielding 14,350 records, of which 20 studies met inclusion criteria. A descriptive synthesis analysis was used, and the final selected studies assessed for quality using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. In the 20 studies, social functioning was conceptualised in 6 categories: family functioning, friendship quality, functional impairment, overall social functioning, social adaptation, and social relations. Seventeen studies were cross-sectional, two were cohort, and one a controlled trial. The quality of the studies was generally moderate. The limited evidence suggests that social functioning is a relevant variable. Greater crisis exposure is associated with more severe depression and lower social functioning. The protective role of familial and social resources for social functioning is highlighted in different crisis settings. However, greater research on social functioning and mental health is required.

Racial/ethnic minority children's use of psychiatric emergency care in California's Public Mental Health System.

PubMed

Snowden, Lonnie R; Masland, Mary C; Libby, Anne M; Wallace, Neal; Fawley, Kya

2008-01-01

We examined rates and intensity of crisis services use by race/ethnicity for 351,174 children younger than 18 years who received specialty mental health care from California's 57 county public mental health systems between July 1998 and June 2001. We used fixed-effects regression for a controlled assessment of racial/ethnic disparities in children's use of hospital-based services for the most serious mental health crises (crisis stabilization services) and community-based services for other crises (crisis intervention services). African American children were more likely than were White children to use both kinds of crisis care and made more visits to hospital-based crisis stabilization services after initial use. Asian American/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native children were more likely than were White children to use hospital-based crisis stabilization services but, along with Latino children, made fewer hospital-based crisis stabilization visits after an initial visit. African American children used both kinds of crisis services more than did White children, and Asian Americans/Pacific Islander and American Indians/Alaska Native children visited only when they experienced the most disruptive and troubling kind of crises, and made nonrecurring visits.

Linear and nonlinear market correlations: Characterizing financial crises and portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haluszczynski, Alexander; Laut, Ingo; Modest, Heike; Räth, Christoph

2017-12-01

Pearson correlation and mutual information-based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of U.S. S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent) turbulent market periods, thus indicating strongly fluctuating interconnections between the stocks of different companies in changing economic environments. A measure for the strength of nonlinear dependencies is derived using surrogate data and leads to interesting observations during periods of financial market crises. In contrast to the expectation that dependencies reduce mainly to linear correlations during crises, we show that (at least in the 2008 crisis) nonlinear effects are significantly increasing. It turns out that the concept of centrality within a network could potentially be used as some kind of an early warning indicator for abnormal market behavior as we demonstrate with the example of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Finally, we apply a Markowitz mean variance portfolio optimization and integrate the measure of nonlinear dependencies to scale the investment exposure. This leads to significant outperformance as compared to a fully invested portfolio.

Dead certain: confidence and conservatism predict aggression in simulated international crisis decision-making.

PubMed

Johnson, Dominic D P; McDermott, Rose; Cowden, Jon; Tingley, Dustin

2012-03-01

Evolutionary psychologists have suggested that confidence and conservatism promoted aggression in our ancestral past, and that this may have been an adaptive strategy given the prevailing costs and benefits of conflict. However, in modern environments, where the costs and benefits of conflict can be very different owing to the involvement of mass armies, sophisticated technology, and remote leadership, evolved tendencies toward high levels of confidence and conservatism may continue to be a contributory cause of aggression despite leading to greater costs and fewer benefits. The purpose of this paper is to test whether confidence and conservatism are indeed associated with greater levels of aggression-in an explicitly political domain. We present the results of an experiment examining people's levels of aggression in response to hypothetical international crises (a hostage crisis, a counter-insurgency campaign, and a coup). Levels of aggression (which range from concession to negotiation to military attack) were significantly predicted by subjects' (1) confidence that their chosen policy would succeed, (2) score on a liberal-conservative scale, (3) political party affiliation, and (4) preference for the use of military force in real-world U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran. We discuss the possible adaptive and maladaptive implications of confidence and conservatism for the prospects of war and peace in the modern world.

UAV Deployment Exercise for Mapping Purposes: Evaluation of Emergency Response Applications

PubMed Central

Boccardo, Piero; Chiabrando, Filiberto; Dutto, Furio; Giulio Tonolo, Fabio; Lingua, Andrea

2015-01-01

Exploiting the decrease of costs related to UAV technology, the humanitarian community started piloting the use of similar systems in humanitarian crises several years ago in different application fields, i.e., disaster mapping and information gathering, community capacity building, logistics and even transportation of goods. Part of the author’s group, composed of researchers in the field of applied geomatics, has been piloting the use of UAVs since 2006, with a specific focus on disaster management application. In the framework of such activities, a UAV deployment exercise was jointly organized with the Regional Civil Protection authority, mainly aimed at assessing the operational procedures to deploy UAVs for mapping purposes and the usability of the acquired data in an emergency response context. In the paper the technical features of the UAV platforms will be described, comparing the main advantages/disadvantages of fixed-wing versus rotor platforms. The main phases of the adopted operational procedure will be discussed and assessed especially in terms of time required to carry out each step, highlighting potential bottlenecks and in view of the national regulation framework, which is rapidly evolving. Different methodologies for the processing of the acquired data will be described and discussed, evaluating the fitness for emergency response applications. PMID:26147728

Effects of the financial crisis on the wealth distribution of Korea's companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong; Swanson, Todd; Kim, Jooyun

2017-02-01

We investigated the distribution functions of Korea's top-rated companies during two financial crises. A power-law scaling for rank distribution, as well as cumulative probability distribution, was found and observed as a general pattern. Similar distributions can be shown in other studies of wealth and income distributions. In our study, the Pareto exponents designating the distribution differed before and after the crisis. The companies covered in this research are divided into two subgroups during a period when the subprime mortgage crisis occurred. Various industrial sectors of Korea's companies were found to respond differently during the two financial crises, especially the construction sector, financial sectors, and insurance groups.

Emergency Manuals: How Quality Improvement and Implementation Science Can Enable Better Perioperative Management During Crises.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Sara N; Macrae, Carl

2018-03-01

How can teams manage critical events more effectively? There are commonly gaps in performance during perioperative crises, and emergency manuals are recently available tools that can improve team performance under stress, via multiple mechanisms. This article examines how the principles of implementation science and quality improvement were applied by multiple teams in the development, testing, and systematic implementations of emergency manuals in perioperative care. The core principles of implementation have relevance for future patient safety innovations perioperatively and beyond, and the concepts of emergency manuals and interprofessional teamwork are applicable for diverse fields throughout health care. Copyright © 2017 Sara N. Goldhaber-Fiebert, Carl Macrae. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, G.G.; Mayor, T.H.

This paper develops a technique for extracting the expectations embedded in the current prices of energy-using durable goods and applies it to be used-car markets during the two energy crises of the 1970s. The resulting estimates indicate that consumers took the energy crises seriously and formed expectations about future gasoline prices that appear rational when compared with the historical gasoline price series, with the forecasts of specialists and experts, or with the actual postsample behavior of gasoline prices. The evidence therefore supports the view that consumers are able to make rather complex choices with a great deal of rationality andmore » casts doubt on the wisdom of policies based on assumptions to the contrary. 17 references, 2 figures.« less

Water crises—a new approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Atreyee

2012-11-01

Water crises are one the biggest challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. But what exactly is the nature of these crises? Scientists investigated the underlying causes driving water scarcity in 22 of the best studied cases across India, China, South America, Russia, and Australia using a quantitative technique that breaks down exhaustive case studies into measurable parameters. Srinivasan et al. show that in spite of the numerous ways in which humans interact with fresh water, each shortage or crisis is driven by one or more of eight underlying causes—which can be grouped into six “syndromes.” The authors found that just as declining natural supply can drive water shortages, so can human consumption or lack of proper policies.

Don't panic--prepare: towards crisis-aware models of emergency department operations.

PubMed

Ceglowski, Red; Churilov, Leonid; Wasserheil, Jeff

2005-12-01

The existing models of Emergency Department (ED) operations that are based on the "flow-shop" management logic do not provide adequate decision support in dealing with the ED overcrowding crises. A conceptually different crisis-aware approach to ED modelling and operational decision support is introduced in this paper. It is based on Perrow's theory of "normal accidents" and calls for recognizing the inevitable nature of ED overcrowding crises within current health system setup. Managing the crisis before it happens--a standard approach in crisis management area--should become an integral part of ED operations management. The potential implications of adopting such a crisis-aware perspective for health services research and ED management are outlined.

Evaluation and treatment of hypertensive crises in children

PubMed Central

Stein, Deborah R; Ferguson, Michael A

2016-01-01

Hypertensive crises in children are medical emergencies that must be identified, evaluated, and treated promptly and appropriately to prevent end-organ injury and even death. Treatment in the acute setting typically includes continuous intravenous antihypertensive medications with monitoring in the intensive care unit setting. Medications commonly used to treat severe hypertension have been poorly studied in children. Dosing guidelines are available, although few pediatric-specific trials have been conducted to facilitate evidence-based therapy. Regardless of what medication is used, blood pressure should be lowered gradually to allow for accommodation of autoregulatory mechanisms and to prevent cerebral ischemia. Determining the underlying cause of the blood pressure elevation may be helpful in guiding therapy. PMID:27051314

Consensus formalisé: recommandations de pratiques cliniques pour la prise en charge de la migraine du patient adulte africain

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Mahmoud Ait Kaci; Haddad, Monia; Kouassi, Beugré; Ouhabi, Hamid; Serrie, Alain

2016-01-01

La migraine est une céphalée primaire (selon les derniers critères de l'International Headache Society) qui affecte environ 8% de la population africaine. Les femmes sont plus fréquemment touchées que les hommes et les crises apparaissent le plus souvent avant l’âge de 40 ans. Bien qu'un certain nombre de traitements, de mesure hygiéno-diététiques, et d'autres méthodes non pharmacologiques permettent de limiter l'intensité et la fréquence des crises, la prise en charge médicamenteuse de la crise de migraine est très souvent nécessaire. La disponibilité des traitements et l'accès aux soins diffèrent sur le continent africain et ont conduit à la réalisation du 1er consensus d'experts pour la prise en charge du patient adulte africain. Destiné aux praticiens, ce travail collaboratif multinational a pour objectif de fournir 16 recommandations de pratiques cliniques simples, fondées sur les preuves, et adaptées aux conditions de l'exercice médical en Afrique. PMID:27642420

Evaluation and management of pediatric hypertensive crises: hypertensive urgency and hypertensive emergencies

PubMed Central

Patel, Nirali H; Romero, Sarah K; Kaelber, David C

2012-01-01

Hypertension (HTN) in the pediatric population is estimated to have a world-wide prevalence of 2%–5%. As with adults, pediatric patients with HTN can present with hypertensive crises include hypertensive urgency and hypertensive emergencies. However, pediatric blood pressure problems have a greater chance of being from secondary causes of HTN, as opposed to primary HTN, than in adults. Thorough evaluation of a child with a hypertensive emergency includes accurate blood pressure readings, complete and focused symptom history, and appropriate past medical, surgical, and family history. Physical exam should include height, weight, four-limb blood pressures, a general overall examination and especially detailed cardiovascular and neurological examinations, including fundoscopic examination. Initial work-up should typically include electrocardiography, chest X-ray, serum chemistries, complete blood count, and urinalysis. Initial management of hypertensive emergencies generally includes the use of intravenous or oral antihypertensive medications, as well as appropriate, typically outpatient, follow-up. Emergency department goals for hypertensive crises are to (1) safely lower blood pressure, and (2) treat/minimize acute end organ damage, while (3) identifying underlying etiology. Intravenous antihypertensive medications are the treatment modality of choice for hypertensive emergencies with the goal of reducing systolic blood pressure by 25% of the original value over an 8-hour period. PMID:27147865

[Sickle-cell anemia in the 1st 5 years of life].

PubMed

Svarch, E; Nordet, I; Machín, S; Fernández, L; Muñiz, A; Wade, M

1996-02-01

A programme for antenatal diagnosis of sickle-cell anaemia (SA) and SC haemoglobinopathy (SC) was started in Cuba in 1983. The purpose of this paper is to report the clinical and haematological data of a group of children diagnosed before birth or in the first few months of life. Between June 1986 and December 1992, 78 children under 5 years of age were studied at the Haemoglobinpathies Clinic of the Instituto de Hematología e Inmunologia in La Habana; of them, 53 had SA and 25 had SC, there were 41 girls and 37 boys. A comprehensive questionnaire was carried out during the first visit to the clinic, about the onset of the clinical manifestations, as well as a careful physical examination plus peripheral blood study and Hb A2 and Hb F assay. Parents were informed, and folate and prophylactic penicillin were given orally to the children. The yearly average admissions to hospital were 1.6 +/- 3.8 for SA and 0.1 +/- 0.6 for SC. The average number of veno-occlusive crises was 0.2 +/- 0.6 in SA and 0.1 +/- 0.6 in SC (p < 0.04); the average hand-foot crises were 0.3 +/- 1.1. for SA and nil for SC. The average number of infections per year was 0.3 +/- 0.6 in SA and 0.1 +/-0.3 in SC, without any significant difference. Significant differences were found in the haemoglobin rates and reticulocyte counts between both haemoglobinopathies. Hb F rate was 7.80 +/- 4.78% in SA and 2.83 +/- 3.45% in SC. Admission to hospital, hand-foot crises, infections and splenic sequestration are the commonest clinical events during the first 5 years of life. The number of infections episodes decreases with prophylactic oral penicillin, and overacute pneumococcal infection is suppressed. Parent education allows one to early treat sequestration crises, and partial splenectomy avoids repetition of this complication, while preserving the splenic function.

"Peer2Peer" - A university program for knowledge transfer and consultation in dealing with psychosocial crises in med-school and medical career.

PubMed

Vajda, Christian

2016-01-01

Medical students are exposed to various psychosocial problems and challenges. Specific consultations services and programs can support them. "Peer2Peer" is such a consultation program and was implemented at the Medical University of Graz. It focusses on crisis intervention, psychosocial stress management, junior mentoring as well as student education in this field. Besides, it also offers student tutors of the program practical skills trainings. The program was restructured in winter term 2014/15. On the one hand, "Peer2Peer" gives insights into topics such as the current state of research concerning the students' psychological strain and psychosocial crises in acutely stressful situations and preventive approaches for coping with these kinds of situations on the other hand. These aspects are taught by means of elective courses, lectures and workshops. Furthermore, "Peer2Peer" provides consultation services by student tutors who give face-to-face advice if required. These tutors receive ongoing training in organizational and professional issues. Since the summer term of 2015, 119 students have been trained (via lectures and elective courses), while 61 contacts (short consultation) and 33 contacts (full consultation) have been supervisied. In total, two psychotherapeutic and one psychosocial follow ups were recommended. There are seven students who participate as tutors in the program. The "Peer2Peer" program is intended to enable a low-threshold access for medical students facing psychosocial crises situations and to help them in dealing with stress and learning problems. An increase in support contacts from the summer term of 2015 to the winter term of 2015/16 can be considered a success. A first evaluation of the different components of the program started in the winter semester of 2015/16. The student tutors have not only acquired practical skills in dealing with students in crises situations but also various organizational skills.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kear, E.

During the energy crises of the 1970s, commercial/office space lighting was an easy target for energy conservation. The first energy conservation measures consisted of turning off the lights when the building was closed for business, but this was not easy for some since many newer buildings were designed without convenient light switches or, for that matter, any switches. Alternative lighting technologies were quickly placed into service; they provided energy savings but usually at a loss of quality and quantity (such as the low-pressure sodium lamps). When the energy crises were over, lighting energy use rose again, but not to itsmore » pre-crises level: everyone had at least learned to turn out the lights at night. Eventually, improved lighting fixtures and lamps were developed, T-8s for example, which provide increased quality and quantity with decreased energy use, and now generally less energy is used to illuminate office and commercial spaces. So, since less energy is used for lighting, why is energy use in the commercial sector growing? One answer is the current explosion in the application of electronic office equipment technologies. Energy consumption by `information` equipment in the commercial segment, including large computer systems, has tripled in the last 10 years and could easily double in the next 10. While there are no driving crises as in the 1970s, there are still some lessons to be learned from lighting, such as: (1) Teaching everyone to turn off his/her PC when it`s not in use. This won`t ruin the hard drive, but it might make the computer last longer and it will save energy. (2) Encouraging the development of energy saving features, including Energy Star compliance. Fortunately, this is not too difficult, and is consistent with existing trends in the industry. (3) Teaching people to buy and use the energy-saving features. This could be harder than one might think, since some Energy Star-compliant devices still have a few `bugs.`« less

Primary care in an unstable security, humanitarian, economic and political context: the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

PubMed

Shukor, Ali R; Klazinga, Niek S; Kringos, Dionne S

2017-08-23

This study presents a descriptive synthesis of Kurdistan Region of Iraq's (KRI) primary care system, which is undergoing comprehensive primary care reforms within the context of a cross-cutting structural economic adjustment program and protracted security, humanitarian, economic and political crises. The descriptive analysis used a framework operationalizing Starfield's classic primary care model for health services research. A scoping review was performed using relevant sources, and expert consultations were conducted for completing and validating data. The descriptive analysis presents a complex narrative of a primary care system undergoing classical developmental processes of transitioning middle-income countries. The system is simultaneously under tremendous pressure to adapt to the continuously changing, complex and resource-intensive needs of sub-populations exhibiting varying morbidity patterns, within the context of protracted security, humanitarian, economic, and political crises. Despite exhibiting significant resilience in the face of the ongoing crises, the continued influx of IDPs and Syrian refugees, coupled with extremely limited resources and weak governance at policy, organizational and clinical levels threaten the sustainability of KRI's public primary care system. Diverse trajectories to the strengthening and development of primary care are underway by local and international actors, notably the World Bank, RAND Corporation, UN organizations and USAID, focusing on varying imperatives related to the protracted humanitarian and economic crises. The convergence, interaction and outcomes of the diverse initiatives and policy approaches in relation to the development of KRI's primary care system are complex and highly uncertain. A common vision of primary care is required to align resources, initiatives and policies, and to enable synergy between all local and international actors involved in the developmental and humanitarian response. Further research that integrates the knowledge synthesized in this article, and enables actors in KRI to learn from their own experiences and efforts, along with those of other jurisdictions, would be invaluable towards the ongoing development of primary care.

Theory of change for the delivery of talking therapies by lay workers to survivors of humanitarian crises in low-income and middle-income countries: protocol of a systematic review.

PubMed

Ryan, Grace Kathryn; Bauer, Andreas; Bass, Judith K; Eaton, Julian

2018-02-17

There is a severe shortage of specialist mental healthcare providers in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) affected by humanitarian crises. In these settings, talking therapies may be delivered by non-specialists, including lay workers with no tertiary education or formal certification in mental health. This systematic review will synthesise the literature on the implementation and effectiveness of talking therapies delivered by lay workers in LMICs affected by humanitarian crises, in order to develop a Theory of Change (ToC). Qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods studies assessing the implementation or effectiveness of lay-delivered talking therapies for common mental disorders provided to adult survivors of humanitarian crises in LMICs will be eligible for inclusion. Studies set in high-income countries will be excluded. No restrictions will be applied to language or year of publication. Unpublished studies will be excluded. Seven electronic databases will be searched: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, PsycEXTRA, Global Health, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov. Contents pages of three peer-reviewed journals will be hand-searched. Sources of grey literature will include resource directories of two online mental health networks (MHPSS.net and MHInnovation.net) and expert consultation. Forward and backward citation searches of included studies will be performed. Two reviewers will independently screen studies for inclusion, extract data and assess study quality. A narrative synthesis will be conducted, following established guidelines. A ToC map will be amended iteratively to take into account the review results and guide the synthesis. Findings will be presented in a manuscript for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated through a coordinated communications strategy targeting knowledge generators, enablers and users. CRD42017058287. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A 2-1-1 research collaboration: participant accrual and service quality indicators.

PubMed

Eddens, Katherine S; Alcaraz, Kassandra I; Kreuter, Matthew W; Rath, Suchitra; Greer, Regina

2012-12-01

In times of crises, 2-1-1 serves as a lifeline in many ways. These crises often cause a spike in call volume that can challenge 2-1-1's ability to meet its service quality standards. For researchers gathering data through 2-1-1s, a sudden increase in call volume might reduce accrual as 2-1-1 has less time to administer study protocols. Research activities imbedded in 2-1-1 systems may affect directly 2-1-1 service quality indicators. Using data from a 2-1-1 research collaboration, this paper examines the impact of crises on call volume to 2-1-1, how call volume affects research participant accrual through 2-1-1, and how research recruitment efforts affect 2-1-1 service quality indicators. t-tests were used to examine the effect of call volume on research participant accrual. Linear and logistic regressions were used to examine the effect of research participant accrual on 2-1-1 service quality indicators. Data were collected June 2010-December 2011; data were analyzed in 2012. Findings from this collaboration suggest that crises causing spikes in call volume adversely affect 2-1-1 service quality indicators as well as accrual of research participants. Administering a brief (2-3 minute) health risk assessment did not affect service quality negatively, but administering a longer (15-18 minute) survey had a modest adverse effect on these indicators. In 2-1-1 research collaborations, both partners need to understand the dynamic relationship among call volume, research accrual, and service quality and adjust expectations accordingly. If research goals include administering a longer survey, increased staffing of 2-1-1 call centers may be needed to avoid compromising service quality. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theory of change for the delivery of talking therapies by lay workers to survivors of humanitarian crises in low-income and middle-income countries: protocol of a systematic review

PubMed Central

Ryan, Grace Kathryn; Bass, Judith K; Eaton, Julian

2018-01-01

Introduction There is a severe shortage of specialist mental healthcare providers in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) affected by humanitarian crises. In these settings, talking therapies may be delivered by non-specialists, including lay workers with no tertiary education or formal certification in mental health. This systematic review will synthesise the literature on the implementation and effectiveness of talking therapies delivered by lay workers in LMICs affected by humanitarian crises, in order to develop a Theory of Change (ToC). Methods and analysis Qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods studies assessing the implementation or effectiveness of lay-delivered talking therapies for common mental disorders provided to adult survivors of humanitarian crises in LMICs will be eligible for inclusion. Studies set in high-income countries will be excluded. No restrictions will be applied to language or year of publication. Unpublished studies will be excluded. Seven electronic databases will be searched: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, PsycEXTRA, Global Health, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov. Contents pages of three peer-reviewed journals will be hand-searched. Sources of grey literature will include resource directories of two online mental health networks (MHPSS.net and MHInnovation.net) and expert consultation. Forward and backward citation searches of included studies will be performed. Two reviewers will independently screen studies for inclusion, extract data and assess study quality. A narrative synthesis will be conducted, following established guidelines. A ToC map will be amended iteratively to take into account the review results and guide the synthesis. Ethics and dissemination Findings will be presented in a manuscript for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated through a coordinated communications strategy targeting knowledge generators, enablers and users. PROSPERO registration number CRD42017058287. PMID:29455163

Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

2013-04-01

Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical sufficient number of large tsunamis, which entails that tsunami hazard has to be estimated by means of speculated worst-case scenarios, and their consequences are evaluated accordingly and usually result associated with large uncertainty bands. In case of large uncertainties, the main issues for geoscientists are how to communicate the information (prediction and uncertainties) to stakeholders and citizens and how to build and implement together responsive procedures that should be adequate. Usually there is a tradeoff between the cost of the countermeasure (warning and prevention) and its efficacy (i.e. its capability of minimizing the damage). The level of the acceptable tradeoff is an issue pertaining to decision makers and to local threatened communities. This paper, that represents a contribution from the European project TRIDEC on management of emergency crises, discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to better their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way appropriate for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geoscience and society handle natural hazards and devise proper defense means.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Remarks on data policies, their influence on system architecture, and the resilience of circumbasin countries against tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küppers, A. N.

2012-04-01

The performance of early warning systems directly depends on the swift provision of data from various sources. Deployed in wide areas and conceived as cross-border installations they have to serve very wide ranges of different geographical, ethno-cultural, linguistic and socio-economic groups and identities, thus bearing a high degree of intrinsic complexity besides a significant technological incoherence. In the scope of the EU FP7-projects DEWS and TRIDEC, analysis of the availability of data which is supposed to originate from seismological networks, GPS, buoys, tide gauges, ocean bottom instrumentation and satellites, was performed. The situation in the Indian Ocean basin and the Mediterranean basin both exhibit a wide range of obstacles against in time delivery of critical data. While the complete lack or poor maintenance state of sensors and the slow or hampered data transmission are the most frequent physical reasons of insufficient data generation and data flow, bureaucratic hindrances, competition between network owners, lack of standards and finally political friction between states or even nations are the overarching impediments. Based on post-disaster investigations performed in Japan and Indonesia, a set of key performance indicators for tsunami early warning systems is suggested. It is proposed to employ them as a tool for the overall improvement of data policies through high level briefings by means of supra-national initiatives.

Crash forecasting in the Korean stock market based on the log-periodic structure and pattern recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, Bonggyun; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

2018-02-01

The aim of this research is to propose an alarm index to forecast the crash of the Korean financial market in extension to the idea of Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, which uses the log-periodic functions and pattern recognition algorithm. We discover that the crashes of the Korean financial market can be classified into domestic and global crises where each category requires different window length of fitted datasets. Therefore, we add the window length as a new parameter to enhance the performance of alarm index. Distinguishing the domestic and global crises separately, our alarm index demonstrates more robust forecasting than previous model by showing the error diagram and the results of trading performance.

CT abdominal imaging findings in patients with sickle cell disease: acute vaso-occlusive crisis, complications, and chronic sequelae.

PubMed

Gardner, Carly S; Boll, Daniel T; Bhosale, Priya; Jaffe, Tracy A

2016-12-01

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is the most prevalent hemoglobinopathy. Survival in patients with SCD has improved over the past few decades. These patients experience a lifetime of repeated acute pain crises, which are thought to result from sickling and microvascular occlusions; acute abdominal pain is common. Moreover, repeated crises often lead to organ dysfunction, such as asplenia, hepatic failure, and renal failure. The spleen, liver, biliary system, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract can all be affected. Patients may undergo CT to further direct clinical management. We review the spectrum of CT imaging findings of abdominal manifestations in patients with SCD, from the acute microvascular occlusive pain crisis to the potential complications and chronic sequelae.

The Crisis Treatment of Suicide

PubMed Central

Tabachnick, Norman

1970-01-01

Almost all suicidal persons who consult physicians wish to live. Generally they fall into one of two groups. Interpersonal suiciders manifest frequent threats and attempts, are emotionally labile, have ill-defined suicide plans, and clear ideas as to how their crises might be resolved. Intrapersonal suiciders are less open in manifestations of suicidal drive, withdrawn rather than emotional, often have clearly-formulated suicide plans and do not have ideas (other than suicide) as to how their crises might end. The suicidal situation results from two factors: (1) the loss of some valuable person or commodity, and (2) the loss of self-esteem. What ensues is temporary character disorganization—crisis. Treatment is based on restoration or replacement of lost objects and building up of self-esteem. PMID:5429131

Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

PubMed

Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

2017-10-01

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

[Cardiovascular complications of hypertensive crisis].

PubMed

Rosas-Peralta, Martín; Borrayo-Sánchez, Gabriela; Madrid-Miller, Alejandra; Ramírez-Arias, Erick; Pérez-Rodríguez, Gilberto

2016-01-01

It is inexorable that a proportion of patients with systemic arterial hypertension will develop a hypertensive crisis at some point in their lives. The hypertensive crises can be divided in hypertensive patients with emergency or hypertensive emergency, according to the presence or absence of acute end-organ damage. In this review, we discuss the cardiovascular hypertensive emergencies, including acute coronary syndrome, congestive heart failure, aortic dissection and sympathomimetic hypertensive crises (those caused by cocaine use included). Each is presented in a unique way, although some patients with hypertensive emergency report non-specific symptoms. Treatment includes multiple medications for quick and effective action with security to reduce blood pressure, protect the function of organs remaining, relieve symptoms, minimize the risk of complications and improve patient outcomes.

The end of the era of generosity? Global health amid economic crisis

PubMed Central

Schneider, Kammerle; Garrett, Laurie

2009-01-01

In the past decade donor commitments to health have increased by 200 percent. Correspondingly, there has been a swell of new players in the global health landscape. The unprecedented, global response to a single disease, HIV/AIDS, has been responsible for a substantial portion of this boon. Numerous health success have followed this windfall of funding and attention, yet the food, fuel, and economic crises of 2008 have shown the vulnerabilities of health and development initiatives focused on short term wins and reliant on a constant flow of foreign funding. For too long, the international community has responded to global health and development challenges with emergency solutions that often reflect the donor's priorities, values, and political leanings, rather than funding durable health systems that can withstand crises. Progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals has stalled in many countries. Disease specific initiatives have weakened health systems and limited efforts to improve maternal and child health. As we enter this era of scarce resources, there is a need to return to the foundations of the Alma Ata Declaration signed thirty years ago with the goal of providing universal access to primary healthcare. The global health community must now objectively evaluate how we can most effectively respond to the crises of 2008 and take advantage of this moment of extraordinary attention for global health and translate it into long term, sustainable health improvements for all. PMID:19134211

Role of social media and networking in volcanic crises and communication

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sennert, Sally K.; Klemetti, Erik W.; Bird, Deanne

2017-01-01

The growth of social media as a primary and often preferred news source has contributed to the rapid dissemination of information about volcanic eruptions and potential volcanic crises as an eruption begins. Information about volcanic activity comes from a variety of sources: news organisations, emergency management personnel, individuals (both public and official) and volcano monitoring agencies. Once posted, this information is easily shared, increasing the reach to a much broader population than the original audience. The onset and popularity of social media as a vehicle for eruption information dissemination has presented many benefits as well as challenges, and points towards a need for a more unified system for information. This includes volcano observatories using social media as an official channels to distribute activity statements, forecasts and predictions on social media, in addition to the archiving of images and data activity. This chapter looks at two examples of projects that collect / disseminate information regarding volcanic crises and eruptive activity utilizing social media sources. Based on those examples, recommendations are made to volcanic observatories in relation to the use of social media as a two-way communication tool. These recommendations include: using social media as a two-way dialogue to communicate and receive information directly from the public and other sources; stating that the social media account is from an official source; and, posting types of information that the public are seeking such as images, videos and figures.

Potentially preventable hospitalizations in dementia: family caregiver experiences.

PubMed

Sadak, Tatiana; Foster Zdon, Susan; Ishado, Emily; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Borson, Soo

2017-07-01

Health crises in persons living with dementia challenge their caregivers to make pivotal decisions, often under pressure, and to act in new ways on behalf of their care recipient. Disruption of everyday routines and heightened stress are familiar consequences of these events. Hospitalization for acute illness or injury is a familiar health crisis in dementia. The focus of this study is to describe the lived experience of dementia family caregivers whose care recipients had a recent unplanned admission, and to identify potential opportunities for developing preventive interventions. Family caregivers (n = 20) of people with dementia who experienced a recent hospitalization due to an ambulatory care sensitive condition or fall-related injury completed phone interviews. Interviews used semi-structured protocols to elicit caregivers' reactions to the hospitalization and recollections of the events leading up to it. Analysis of interview data identified four major themes: (1) caregiver is uncertain how to interpret and act on the change; (2) caregiver is unable to provide necessary care; (3) caregiver experiences a personal crisis in response to the patient's health event; (4) mitigating factors may prevent caregiver crises. This study identifies a need for clinicians and family caregivers to work together to avoid health crises of both caregivers and people with dementia and to enable caregivers to manage the health of their care recipients without sacrificing their own health and wellness.

A health system in economic crises: a case study from Iceland.

PubMed

Olafsdottir, Anna Elisabet; Allotey, Pascale; Reidpath, Daniel D

2013-03-01

There has been a lack of systematic inquiry into how governments respond during times of crises, how well these responses comply with good governance, and how they affect health systems. The aim of this study was to analyse the reactions of the Icelandic health system during the first 7 months of the economic crisis in 2008. The grounded theory approach was used in data sampling, collection, and data analysis. Secondary data were collected from parliamentary documents, news, and health discussions in two of the largest newspapers in Iceland. Primary data were collected through interviews with key stakeholders in the health sector. Atlas.ti. 5.2 was used to analyse the data. The health sector's first response to the crisis was to close and merge wards on hospitals as well as making structural changes to reduce the overhead costs in healthcare institutions. The Minister of Health attempted to introduce radical changes but because of failures in good governance practices, such as a lack of transparency and fair participation together with a lack of supporting documents, the proposed changes were not executed. Economic crises are a critical test of health systems' resilience. The manner in which governance practices, together with strong stewardship, influence the ability of the health system to adapt to changes and reorganise without causing stress, confusion, or anger and without changing its basic structure and function are important, and open to robust evaluation.

Chaos in an Eulerian Based Model of Sickle Cell Blood Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apori, Akwasi; Harris, Wesley

2001-11-01

A novel Eulerian model describing the manifestation of sickle cell blood flow in the capillaries has been formulated to study the apparently chaotic onset of sickle cell crises. This Eulerian model was based on extending previous models of sickle cell blood flow which were limited due to their Lagrangian formulation. Oxygen concentration, red blood cell velocity, cell stiffness, and plasma viscosity were modeled as system state variables. The governing equations of the system were expressed in canonical form. The non-linear coupling of velocity-viscosity and viscosity- stiffness proved to be the origin of chaos in the system. The system was solved with respect to a control parameter representing the unique rheology of the sickle cell erythrocytes. Results of chaos tests proved positive for various ranges of the control parameter. The results included con-tinuous patterns found in the Poincare section, spectral broadening of the Fourier power spectrum, and positive Lyapunov exponent values. The onset of chaos predicted by this sickle cell flow model as the control parameter was varied appeared to coincide with the change from a healthy state to a crisis state in a sickle cell patient. This finding that sickle cell crises may be caused from the well understood change of a solution from a steady state to chaotic could point to new ways in preventing and treating crises and should be validated in clinical trials.

Public health information in crisis-affected populations: a review of methods and their use for advocacy and action.

PubMed

Checchi, Francesco; Warsame, Abdihamid; Treacy-Wong, Victoria; Polonsky, Jonathan; van Ommeren, Mark; Prudhon, Claudine

2017-11-18

Valid and timely information about various domains of public health underpins the effectiveness of humanitarian public health interventions in crises. However, obstacles including insecurity, insufficient resources and skills for data collection and analysis, and absence of validated methods combine to hamper the quantity and quality of public health information available to humanitarian responders. This paper, the second in a Series of four papers, reviews available methods to collect public health data pertaining to different domains of health and health services in crisis settings, including population size and composition, exposure to armed attacks, sexual and gender-based violence, food security and feeding practices, nutritional status, physical and mental health outcomes, public health service availability, coverage and effectiveness, and mortality. The paper also quantifies the availability of a minimal essential set of information in large armed conflict and natural disaster crises since 2010: we show that information was available and timely only in a small minority of cases. On the basis of this observation, we propose an agenda for methodological research and steps required to improve on the current use of available methods. This proposition includes setting up a dedicated interagency service for public health information and epidemiology in crises. Copyright © 2017 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in the analgesic effects of ICI 182,780 and Flutamide on ureteral calculosis in rats.

PubMed

Affaitati, Giannapia; Ceccarelli, Ilaria; Fiorenzani, Paolo; Rossi, Cosmo; Pace, Maria Caterina; Passavanti, Maria Beatrice; Aurilio, Caterina; Sorda, Giuseppina; Danielli, Barbara; Giamberardino, Maria Adele; Aloisi, Anna Maria

2011-01-01

To better define the involvement of gonadal hormones in the sex differences observed in experimental visceral pain, we administered antagonists of estrogen receptors (ICI 182,780 [ICI]) or androgen receptors (Flutamide [FLU]) to adult male and female rats suffering from artificial ureteral calculosis. Subjects were divided into groups and treated with one of the substances (ICI, FLU) or sweet almond oil (OIL, vehicle) for 5 days, starting 2 days before surgery. On day 3, animals underwent surgery, with half receiving an artificial calculosis (Stone) and half only a sham procedure. The animals' behavior (number and duration of ureteral crises) and blood hormone levels (estradiol and testosterone) were determined in all groups. In OIL-treated rats the number and duration of crises were higher in females than in males. The administration of ICI or FLU resulted in hormonal effects in males and behavioral effects in females. In males ICI treatment increased estradiol plasma levels and FLU increased testosterone plasma levels; in females ICI and FLU treatments both decreased the number and duration of the ureteral crises. These results, confirming previous findings of higher sensitivity of females than males to urinary tract pain, showed the modulatory effects of estrogen and androgen antagonists on the behavioral responses induced by pain but only in females. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

PubMed

Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

2016-08-01

Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic status and length of hospital stay in children with vaso-occlusive crises of sickle cell disease.

PubMed Central

Ellison, Angela M.; Bauchner, Howard

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between socioeconomic status and length of hospital stay for vaso-occlusive crises in children with sickle cell disease. METHODS: 19,174 discharges (aged 1-20 years), with a primary diagnosis of sickle cell disease with crisis were analyzed from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kid Inpatient Database 2000. Socioeconomic status was assessed using an area-based measure, median household income by ZIP code and an individual-level measure, insurance status. We adjusted for age, gender, hospital location/teaching status, presence of pneumonia, number of diagnoses on record and number of procedures performed. Negative binomial regression models using generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to assess length of stay. RESULTS: Socioeconomic status as measured by income was not associated with length of stay (incidence rate ratio (highest versus lowest category) = 1.04 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.11)). In contrast, socioeconomic status as measured by insurance was associated with length of stay [adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.08)), although the magnitude of this difference is small and not likely to be clinically important. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence to suggest that socioeconomic status has any clinically important effect on length of hospital stay in children with vaso-occlusive crises in sickle cell disease. PMID:17393942

Exacerbation of oxidative stress during sickle vaso-occlusive crisis is associated with decreased anti-band 3 autoantibodies rate and increased red blood cell-derived microparticle level: a prospective study.

PubMed

Hierso, Régine; Lemonne, Nathalie; Villaescusa, Rinaldo; Lalanne-Mistrih, Marie-Laure; Charlot, Keyne; Etienne-Julan, Maryse; Tressières, Benoit; Lamarre, Yann; Tarer, Vanessa; Garnier, Yohann; Hernandez, Ada Arce; Ferracci, Serge; Connes, Philippe; Romana, Marc; Hardy-Dessources, Marie-Dominique

2017-03-01

Painful vaso-occlusive crisis, a hallmark of sickle cell anaemia, results from complex, incompletely understood mechanisms. Red blood cell (RBC) damage caused by continuous endogenous and exogenous oxidative stress may precipitate the occurrence of vaso-occlusive crises. In order to gain insight into the relevance of oxidative stress in vaso-occlusive crisis occurrence, we prospectively compared the expression levels of various oxidative markers in 32 adults with sickle cell anaemia during vaso-occlusive crisis and steady-state conditions. Compared to steady-state condition, plasma levels of free haem, advanced oxidation protein products and myeloperoxidase, RBC caspase-3 activity, as well as the concentrations of total, neutrophil- and RBC-derived microparticles were increased during vaso-occlusive crises, whereas the reduced glutathione content was decreased in RBCs. In addition, natural anti-band 3 autoantibodies levels decreased during crisis and were negatively correlated with the rise in plasma advanced oxidation protein products and RBC caspase-3 activity. These data showed an exacerbation of the oxidative stress during vaso-occlusive crises in sickle cell anaemia patients and strongly suggest that the higher concentration of harmful circulating RBC-derived microparticles and the reduced anti-band 3 autoantibodies levels may be both related to the recruitment of oxidized band 3 into membrane aggregates. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Crises and Collective Socio-Economic Phenomena: Simple Models and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2013-05-01

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the so-called Random Field Ising model ( rfim) provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilizing self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and that account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of rfim-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can fail badly at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria from being reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.

Mars can wait: facing the challenges of our civilization.

PubMed

Goodman, Geoffrey; Gershwin, M Eric; Bercovich, Dani

2014-12-01

We are overwhelmed by warnings about inevitable geophysical and human problems. Earth is beset by escalating, manmade, environmental crises and our exploding population will eventually lack water, food and vital materials. This suggests, together with increasing poverty, deepening social unrest and advanced techniques for mass killing, that civilization will break down long before atmospheric CO2 or resistant microbes become catastrophic. Despite intensive searching, life has not been found in space, even though thousands of planets have been found and life there may be as problematic and unpredictable as on Earth. The human brain is already a 'universe', with 85 billion neurons and a hundred trillion synapses, more than the stars in our galaxy. Understanding consciousness, the brain, its aging and pathologies, and eliminating the propensity for human aggression are urgent challenges. During 1958-2012, NASA spent $800 billion. In contrast, the annual cost of brain disease in the U.S. is $600 billion, more than cardiovascular disease and cancer combined. We suggest that a massive switching of financial and human resources is required to explore the full potential of the human brain. Visiting Mars can wait. We further propose a novel Two-Brain Hypothesis: the animal 'brain' evolved as two fundamentally different though interdependent, complementary organs: one electroionic (tangible, known and accessible), and the other, electromagnetic (intangible and difficult to access)--a relatively independent, stable, structured and functional 3D compendium of variously induced interacting EM fields.

A Tale of Many Cities: A Contemporary Historical Study of the Implementation of School Closures during the 2009 pA(H1N1) Influenza Pandemic

PubMed Central

Navarro, J. Alexander; Kohl, Katrin S.; Cetron, Martin S.; Markel, Howard

2017-01-01

Applying qualitative historical methods, we examined the consideration and implementation of school closures as a nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) in thirty US cities during the spring 2009 wave of the pA(H1N1) influenza pandemic. We gathered and performed close textual readings of official federal, state, and municipal government documents; media coverage; and academic publications. Lastly, we conducted oral history interviews with public health and education officials in our selected cities. We found that several local health departments pursued school closure plans independent of CDC guidance, that uncertainty of action and the rapidly evolving understanding of pA(H1N1) contributed to tension and pushback from the public, that the media and public perception played a significant role in the response to school closure decisions, and that there were some notable instances of interdepartmental communication breakdown. We conclude that health departments should continue to develop and fine-tune their action plans while also working to develop better communication methods with the public, and work more closely with education officials to better understand the complexities involved in closing schools. Lastly, state and local governments should work to resolve lingering issues of legal authority for school closures in times of public health crises. PMID:26921384

Reinventing the role of consumer research in today's open innovation ecosystem.

PubMed

Moskowitz, Howard R; Saguy, I Sam

2013-01-01

Consumer research (CR) has played a key role in the food and beverage industry. Emerging from laboratory product-tests, it has evolved into a corporate testing service that measures the consumer reactions to products/concepts using a wide range of analyses/metrics. We propose that CR transform itself in light of accelerated knowledge expansion, mounting global, and local economic pressure on corporations and changing consumer needs. The transformation moves from its traditional testing into creating profoundly new knowledge of the product and understanding of the corporation's current and future customers. CR's tasks will involve: contributing/expanding science, applying open innovation principles, and driving consumer-centric innovation. We identify seven paradigm shifts that will change CR, namely: a different way of working--from testing to open sourcing; from good corporate citizen to change leader; open new product development (NPD) process; new management roles/cultures; universities and industry, new education curricula, and cooperation; from battle over control to sustainable sharing is winning model (SiW); and the central role of design. This integrative, innovative CR requires the implementation of three recommendations: start the change process now, fine-tune along the way; create a new marketing/CR department; and educate and professionalize. These recommendations provide the blueprint for jump-starting the process and call for immediate actions to deal with the severity of the crises facing the CR profession.

A Tale of Many Cities: A Contemporary Historical Study of the Implementation of School Closures during the 2009 pA(H1N1) Influenza Pandemic.

PubMed

Navarro, J Alexander; Kohl, Katrin S; Cetron, Martin S; Markel, Howard

2016-06-01

Applying qualitative historical methods, we examined the consideration and implementation of school closures as a nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) in thirty US cities during the spring 2009 wave of the pA(H1N1) influenza pandemic. We gathered and performed close textual readings of official federal, state, and municipal government documents; media coverage; and academic publications. Lastly, we conducted oral history interviews with public health and education officials in our selected cities. We found that several local health departments pursued school closure plans independent of CDC guidance, that uncertainty of action and the rapidly evolving understanding of pA(H1N1) contributed to tension and pushback from the public, that the media and public perception played a significant role in the response to school closure decisions, and that there were some notable instances of interdepartmental communication breakdown. We conclude that health departments should continue to develop and fine-tune their action plans while also working to develop better communication methods with the public, and work more closely with education officials to better understand the complexities involved in closing schools. Lastly, state and local governments should work to resolve lingering issues of legal authority for school closures in times of public health crises. Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grebogi, C.; Yorke, J.A.

This report discusses the following topics: controlling chaotic dynamical systems; embedding of experimental data; effect of noise on critical exponents of crises; transition to chaotic scattering; and distribution of floaters on a fluid surface. (LSP)

Sickle Cell Disease (For Teens)

MedlinePlus

... help relieve the pain of sickle cell crises. Penicillin or other antibiotics can help prevent infections, though doctors usually stop giving penicillin to kids who have sickle cell disease after ...

For people and planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2017-07-01

The emerging field of geohealth links human well-being and ecosystem health. A deeper understanding of these linkages can help society mitigate the health costs of economic growth before they become crises.

Information flows in hierarchical networks and the capability of organizations to successfully respond to failures, crises, and disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Ammoser, Hendrik; Kühnert, Christian

2006-04-01

In this paper we discuss the problem of information losses in organizations and how they depend on the organization network structure. Hierarchical networks are an optimal organization structure only when the failure rate of nodes or links is negligible. Otherwise, redundant information links are important to reduce the risk of information losses and the related costs. However, as redundant information links are expensive, the optimal organization structure is not a fully connected one. It rather depends on the failure rate. We suggest that sidelinks and temporary, adaptive shortcuts can improve the information flows considerably by generating small-world effects. This calls for modified organization structures to cope with today's challenges of businesses and administrations, in particular, to successfully respond to crises or disasters.

Measuring complexity in Brazilian economic crises.

PubMed

Mortoza, Letícia P D; Piqueira, José R C

2017-01-01

Capital flows are responsible for a strong influence on the foreign exchange rates and stock prices macroeconomic parameters. In volatile economies, capital flows can change due to several types of social, political and economic events, provoking oscillations on these parameters, which are recognized as economic crises. This work aims to investigate how these two macroeconomic variables are related with crisis events by using the traditional complex measures due to Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) and to Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL), that can be applied to any temporal series. Here, Ibovespa (Bovespa Stock Exchange main Index) and the "dollar-real" parity are the background for calculating the LMC and SDL complexity measures. By analyzing the temporal evolution of these measures, it is shown that they might be related to important events that occurred in the Brazilian economy.

Stock network stability in times of crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiberger, Raphael H.

2014-01-01

Despite many efforts crises on financial markets are in large part still scientific black-boxes. In this paper, we use a winner-take-all approach to construct a longitudinal network of S&P 500 companies and their correlations between 2000 and 2012. A comparison to complex ecosystems is drawn, especially whether the May-Wigner theorem can describe real-world economic phenomena. The results confirm the utility of the May-Wigner theorem as a stability indicator for the US stock market, since its development matches with the two major crises of this period, the dot-com bubble and, particularly, the financial crisis. In those times of financial turmoil, the stock network changes its composition, but unlike ecological systems it tightens and the disassortative structure of prosperous markets transforms into a more centralized topology.

77 FR 59686 - Sunshine Act Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-28

... prevention of errors through robust system design, deployment, and operation. The second panel will focus on the responses to errors and malfunctions and managing crises in real-time. For further information...

L-glutamine

MedlinePlus

L-glutamine is used to is used to reduce the frequency of painful episodes (crises) in adults and children ... oxygen to all parts of the body). L-glutamine is in a class of medications called amino ...

What adaptation to research is needed following crises: a comparative, qualitative study of the health workforce in Sierra Leone and Nepal.

PubMed

Raven, Joanna; Baral, Sushil; Wurie, Haja; Witter, Sophie; Samai, Mohamed; Paudel, Pravin; Subedi, Hom Nath; Martineau, Tim; Elsey, Helen; Theobald, Sally

2018-02-07

Health workers are critical to the performance of health systems; yet, evidence about their coping strategies and support needs during and post crisis is lacking. There is very limited discussion about how research teams should respond when unexpected crises occur during on-going research. This paper critically presents the approaches and findings of two health systems research projects that explored and evaluated health worker performance and were adapted during crises, and provides lessons learnt on re-orientating research when the unexpected occurs. Health systems research was adapted post crisis to assess health workers' experiences and coping strategies. Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 health workers in a heavily affected earthquake district in Nepal and 25 frontline health workers in four districts in Ebola-affected Sierra Leone. All data were transcribed and analysed using the framework approach, which included developing coding frameworks for each study, applying the frameworks, developing charts and describing the themes. A second layer of analysis included analysis across the two contexts, whereas a third layer involved the research teams reflecting on the approaches used to adapt the research during these crises and what was learned as individuals and research teams. In Sierra Leone, health workers were heavily stigmatised by the epidemic, leading to a breakdown of trust. Coping strategies included finding renewed purpose in continuing to serve their community, peer and family support (in some cases), and religion. In Nepal, individual determination, a sense of responsibility to the community and professional duty compelled staff to stay or return to their workplace. The research teams had trusting relationships with policy-makers and practitioners, which brought credibility and legitimacy to the change of research direction as well as the relationships to maximise the opportunity for findings to inform practice. In both contexts, health workers demonstrated considerable resilience in continuing to provide services despite limited support. Embedded researchers and institutions are arguably best placed to navigate emerging ethical and social justice challenges and are strategically positioned to support the co-production of knowledge and ensure research findings have impact.

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations, such as evacuation, and their attitudes toward hazard mitigation efforts. Collectively, these two studies provide a detailed evaluation of important risk communication and risk management issues at both individual and organizational levels and insight about uncertainties that influence the outcome of volcanic crises.

Attacks on the Courts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starr, Isidore

1984-01-01

Legal education should be included in any U.S. history course. Constitutional questions raised by wars--Civil War, World War I, World War II, Korea, and Vietnam--are examined. Through all these crises the Constitution survived. (RM)

Suicide among foreign residents of Japan.

PubMed

Lester, David; Saito, Yukio; Ben Park, B C

2011-02-01

The suicide rate of Koreans living in Japan is twice as high as that of Koreans in South Korea. Reasons for this high suicide rate are discussed, including effects of economic crises and discrimination.

Organizational collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises: a literature review from the public management perspective.

PubMed

Lai, Allen Y

2012-01-01

Collaborative capacity serves for organizations as the capacity to collaborate with other network players. Organizational capacity matters as collaboration outcomes usually go beyond single-shot implementation efforts or a single-minded focus on either the vertical dimension of program or the horizontal component. This review article explores organizational collaborative capacities from the perspective of public management, in particular, network theory. By applying the 5 attributes of network theory-interdependence, membership, resources, information, and learning-to the explanation of collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises, I argue in some ways organizational collaborative capacity is very much like an organization in its own right. Studying collaborative capacity in the battle against pandemics facilitate our understanding of multisectoral collaboration in technical, political, and institutional dimensions, and greatly advances the richness of capacity vocabulary in pandemic response and preparedness.

Measuring complexity in Brazilian economic crises

PubMed Central

Mortoza, Letícia P. D.; Piqueira, José R. C.

2017-01-01

Capital flows are responsible for a strong influence on the foreign exchange rates and stock prices macroeconomic parameters. In volatile economies, capital flows can change due to several types of social, political and economic events, provoking oscillations on these parameters, which are recognized as economic crises. This work aims to investigate how these two macroeconomic variables are related with crisis events by using the traditional complex measures due to Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) and to Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL), that can be applied to any temporal series. Here, Ibovespa (Bovespa Stock Exchange main Index) and the “dollar-real” parity are the background for calculating the LMC and SDL complexity measures. By analyzing the temporal evolution of these measures, it is shown that they might be related to important events that occurred in the Brazilian economy. PMID:28301506

Fathers in situational crisis: a comparison of Asian and Western cultures.

PubMed

Tseng, Yun-Shan; Verklan, M Terese

2008-09-01

The purpose of this synthesis was to compare the difference between Asian and Western fathers' perceptions of their roles when confronted with situational crises involving their children. Twenty-two studies were reviewed and assigned to one of two categories: the father experiencing a situational crisis related to his child's illness or cultural influences on the paternal role. The results indicated that Asian and Western fathers' perceptions of crises do not differ greatly. It was concluded that there exists a gap in the literature with respect to the knowledge of Asian fathers' situational crisis surrounding their child's illness, their coping strategies when faced with their child's illness, as well as their emotional reactions toward family health. Future research should investigate the single or same-gender father's perceptions and emotional reactions in both Asian and Western cultures.

Erikson's "components of a healthy personality" among Holocaust survivors immediately and 40 years after the war.

PubMed

Suedfeld, Peter; Soriano, Erin; McMurtry, Donna Louise; Paterson, Helen; Weiszbeck, Tara L; Krell, Robert

2005-01-01

This study assessed the degree to which Holocaust survivors have dealt successfully with the eight psychosocial crises thought by Erikson (1959) to mark important stages in life-span development. In Study 1, 50 autobiographical interviews of survivors videotaped 30-50 years after the war were subjected to thematic content analysis. Relevant passages were coded as representing either a favorable or an unfavorable outcome as defined by Erikson. Survivors described significantly more favorable than unfavorable outcomes for seven of the crises; the exception was Trust vs. Mistrust. In Study 2, audiotaped Holocaust survivor interviews conducted in 1946 were scored in the same way and compared with the results of Study 1. There were several significant differences as well as similarities between the two data sets, the later interviews mostly showing changes in the positive direction.

When Health Diplomacy Serves Foreign Policy: Use of Soft Power to Quell Conflict and Crises.

PubMed

Hosseini Divkolaye, Nasim Sadat; Radfar, Mohammad Hadi; Seighali, Fariba; Burkle, Frederick M

2016-10-01

Health diplomacy has increasingly become a crucial element in forging political neutrality and conflict resolution and the World Health Organization has strongly encouraged its use. Global turmoil has heightened, especially in the Middle East, and with it, political, religious, and cultural differences have become major reasons to incite crises. The authors cite the example of the human stampede and the deaths of over 2000 pilgrims during the 2015 annual Haj pilgrimage in Mecca. The resulting political conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia had the potential to escalate into a more severe political and military crisis had it not been for the ministers of health from both countries successfully exercising "soft power" options. Global health security demands critical health diplomacy skills and training for all health providers. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 4).

Unusual causes of abdominal pain: sickle cell anemia.

PubMed

Ahmed, Shahid; Shahid, Rabia K; Russo, Linda A

2005-04-01

Sickle cell disease is characterized by chronic hemolytic anemia and vaso-occlusive painful crises. The vascular occlusion in sickle cell disease is a complex process and accounts for the majority of the clinical manifestation of the disease. Abdominal pain is an important component of vaso-occlusive painful crises. It often represents a substantial diagnostic challenge in this population of patients. These episodes are often attributed to micro-vessel occlusion and infarcts of mesentery and abdominal viscera. Abdominal pain due to sickle cell vaso-occlusive crisis is often indistinguishable from an acute intra-abdominal disease process such as acute cholecystitis, acute pancreatitis, hepatic infarction, ischemic colitis and acute appendicitis. In the majority of cases, however, no specific cause is identified and spontaneous resolution occurs. This chapter will focus on etiologies, pathophysiology and management of abdominal pain in patients with sickle cell disease.

Diagnostic and therapeutic approach to the hypertensive crisis.

PubMed

Arbe, Guillermo; Pastor, Irene; Franco, Jonathan

2018-04-23

High blood pressure is a problem with elevated prevalence in the world population. The acute forms of presentation are "hypertensive crises," which represent a frequent cause for emergency room and primary care consultations. Hypertensive crises are divided into hypertensive emergencies and hypertensive urgencies, depending on whether or not there is acute damage to the target organ, respectively. Each situation has a different prognosis and treatment. More specifically, hypertensive emergencies are potentially serious and usually require rapid reductions in blood pressure, whereas hypertensive urgencies can be treated as outpatients by reducing blood pressure in hours or days. A significant number of patients who consult medical professionals regarding a hypertensive crisis do not have a prior diagnosis of hypertension; therefore, it is important to periodically monitor blood pressure levels in the community. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prevention of Targeted School Violence by Responding to Students' Psychosocial Crises: The NETWASS Program.

PubMed

Leuschner, Vincenz; Fiedler, Nora; Schultze, Martin; Ahlig, Nadine; Göbel, Kristin; Sommer, Friederike; Scholl, Johanna; Cornell, Dewey; Scheithauer, Herbert

2017-01-01

The standardized, indicated school-based prevention program "Networks Against School Shootings" combines a threat assessment approach with a general model of prevention of emergency situations in schools through early intervention in student psychosocial crises and training teachers to recognize warning signs of targeted school violence. An evaluation study in 98 German schools with 3,473 school staff participants (M age  = 46.2 years) used a quasi-experimental comparison group design with three measurement points (pre, post, and 7 months followup) with schools randomly allocated to implementation conditions. The study found increases in teachers' expertise and evaluation skills, enhanced abilities to identify students experiencing a psychosocial crisis, and positive secondary effects (e.g., teacher-student interaction, feelings of safety). © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Creating wi-fi bluetooth mesh network for crisis management applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Tekreeti, Safa; Adams, Christopher; Al-Jawad, Naseer

2010-04-01

This paper proposes a wireless mesh network implementation consisting of both Wi-Fi Ad-Hoc networks as well as Bluetooth Piconet/Scatternet networks, organised in an energy and throughput efficient structure. This type of networks can be easily constructed for Crises management applications, for example in an Earthquake disaster. The motivation of this research is to form mesh network from the mass availability of WiFi and Bluetooth enabled electronic devices such as mobile phones and PC's that are normally present in most regions were major crises occurs. The target of this study is to achieve an effective solution that will enable Wi-Fi and/or Bluetooth nodes to seamlessly configure themselves to act as a bridge between their own network and that of the other network to achieve continuous routing for our proposed mesh networks.

An Auto-Ethnographic Study of "Open Dialogue": The Illumination of Snow.

PubMed

Olson, Mary

2015-12-01

This auto-ethnographic study describes the changes in the author's thinking and clinical work connected to her first-hand experience of Open Dialogue, which is an innovative, psychosocial approach to severe psychiatric crises developed in Tornio, Finland. In charting this trajectory, there is an emphasis on three interrelated themes: the micropolitics of U.S. managed mental health care; the practice of "dialogicality" in Open Dialogue; and the historical, cultural, and scientific shifts that are encouraging the adaptation of Open Dialogue in the United States. The work of Gregory Bateson provides a conceptual framework that makes sense of the author's experience and the larger trends. The study portrays and underscores how family and network practices are essential to responding to psychiatric crises and should not be abandoned in favor of a reductionist, biomedical model. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

Structure and dynamics of stock market in times of crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Longfeng; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

2016-02-01

Daily correlations among 322 S&P 500 constituent stocks are investigated by means of correlation-based (CB) network. By using the heterogeneous time scales, we identify global expansion and local clustering market behaviors during crises, which are mainly caused by community splits and inter-sector edge number decreases. The CB networks display distinctive community and sector structures. Graph edit distance is applied to capturing the dynamics of CB networks in which drastic structure reconfigurations can be observed during crisis periods. Edge statistics reveal the power-law nature of edges' duration time distribution. Despite the networks' strong structural changes during crises, we still find some long-duration edges that serve as the backbone of the stock market. Finally the dynamical change of network structure has shown its capability in predicting the implied volatility index (VIX).

A Behavioral Framework for Managing Massive Airline Flight Disruptions through Crisis Management, Organization Development, and Organization Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Tulinda Deegan

In this study the researcher provides a behavioral framework for managing massive airline flight disruptions (MAFD) in the United States. Under conditions of MAFD, multiple flights are disrupted throughout the airline's route network, customer service is negatively affected, additional costs are created for airlines, and governments intervene. This study is different from other studies relating to MAFD that have focused on the operational, technical, economic, financial, and customer service impacts. The researcher argues that airlines could improve the management of events that led to MAFD by applying the principles of crisis management where the entire organization is mobilized, rather than one department, adapting organization development (OD) interventions to implement change and organization learning (OL) processes to create culture of innovation, resulting in sustainable improvement in customer service, cost reductions, and mitigation of government intervention. At the intersection of crisis management, OD, and OL, the researcher has developed a new conceptual framework that enhances the resiliency of individuals and organizations in responding to unexpected-yet-recurring crises (e.g., MAFD) that impact operations. The researcher has adapted and augmented Lalonde's framework for managing crises through OD interventions by including OL processes. The OD interventions, coupled with OL, provide a framework for airline leaders to manage more effectively events that result in MAFD with the goal of improving passenger satisfaction, reducing costs, and preventing further government intervention. Further research is warranted to apply this conceptual framework to unexpected-yet-recurring crises that affect operations in other industries.

Faculty perceptions of accommodations, strategies, and psychiatric advance directives for university students with mental illnesses.

PubMed

Brockelman, Karin F; Scheyett, Anna M

2015-12-01

Universities across the country struggle with the legal and ethical dilemmas of how to respond when a student shows symptoms of serious mental illness. This mixed-method study provides information on faculty knowledge of mental health problems in students, their use of available accommodations and strategies, and their willingness to accept psychiatric advance directives (PADs) as helpful interventions for managing student crises. Participants were 168 faculty members at a large, public, Southern university. A web-based survey was used to collect quantitative self-report data as well as qualitative data in the form of open-ended questions. Quantitative data are presented with descriptive statistics. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The majority of faculty surveyed have an overall supportive stance and are willing to provide accommodations to students with a mental illness. The most common advantage faculty see in a PAD is support of student autonomy and choice, and the primary concern voiced about PADs is that students with mental illness will have poor judgment regarding the contents of the PADs they create. PADs may be effective recovery tools to help university students with mental illnesses manage crises and attain stability and academic success. For PADs to be effective, university faculty and administration will need to understand mental illnesses, the strategies students need to manage mental health crises, and how PADs can play a role in supporting students. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

2009-05-01

Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

Management of Mental Health Crises Among Youths With and Without ASD: A National Survey of Child Psychiatrists.

PubMed

Kalb, Luther G; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Mandell, David S; Olfson, Mark; Vasa, Roma A

2017-10-01

This study compared management by child psychiatrists of mental health crises among youths with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A custom online mental health crisis services survey was administered to members of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. The survey probed three domains of crisis management: willingness to work with youths with a history of mental health crisis, comfort level in managing a mental health crisis, and availability of external resources during a crisis. Child psychiatrists reporting on management of youths with ASD (N=492) and without ASD (N=374) completed the survey. About 75% of psychiatrists in both groups were willing to accept a child with a history of a mental health crisis in their practice. During a crisis, psychiatrists caring for youths with ASD had less access to external consultation resources, such as a crisis evaluation center or other mental health professionals, compared with those caring for youths without ASD. Psychiatrists also expressed concerns about the ability of emergency department professionals and emergency responders to manage mental health crises among youths in a safe and developmentally appropriate manner, particularly among those with ASD. Child psychiatrists are in need of more external resources to manage youths with ASD who are experiencing a mental health crisis. There is also a need to develop best practice procedures for emergency responders who are working with youths experiencing a mental health crisis.

Propagation of crises in the virtual water trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2015-04-01

The international trade of agricultural goods is associated to the displacement of the water used to produce such goods and embedded in trade as a factor of production. Water virtually exchanged from producing to consuming countries, named virtual water, defines flows across an international network of 'virtual water trade' which enable the assessment of environmental forcings and implications of trade, such as global water savings or country dependencies on foreign water resources. Given the recent expansion of commodity (and virtual water) trade, in both displaced volumes and network structure, concerns have been raised about the exposure to crises of individuals and societies. In fact, if one country had to markedly decrease its export following a socio-economical or environmental crisis, such as a war or a drought, many -if not all- countries would be affected due to a cascade effect within the trade network. The present contribution proposes a mechanistic model describing the propagation of a local crisis into the virtual water trade network, accounting for the network structure and the virtual water balance of all countries. The model, built on data-based assumptions, is tested on the real case study of the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09, when the internal agricultural production (measured as virtual water volume) decreased by 26% and the virtual water export of Argentina dropped accordingly. Crisis propagation and effects on the virtual water trade are correctly captured, showing the way forward to investigations of crises impact and country vulnerability based on the results of the model proposed.

Improvements in haemolysis and indicators of erythrocyte survival do not correlate with acute vaso-occlusive crises in patients with sickle cell disease: a phase III randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study of the Gardos channel blocker senicapoc (ICA-17043).

PubMed

Ataga, Kenneth I; Reid, Marvin; Ballas, Samir K; Yasin, Zahida; Bigelow, Carolyn; James, Luther St; Smith, Wally R; Galacteros, Frederic; Kutlar, Abdullah; Hull, James H; Stocker, Jonathan W

2011-04-01

Red blood cell (RBC) hydration is regulated in part by the Ca(2+) -activated K(+) efflux (Gardos) channel. Senicapoc selectively blocks potassium efflux through the Gardos channel, reducing RBC dehydration and haemolysis, and increasing haemoglobin levels in sickle cell disease (SCD). This randomized, placebo-controlled trial was designed to determine the safety and clinical efficacy of senicapoc in SCD patients. One hundred and forty-five patients were randomized to receive senicapoc and 144 patients to receive placebo for 52 weeks. Consistent with a previous study, patients in the senicapoc group had significantly increased haematocrit, haemoglobin, and decreased numbers of both dense erythrocytes and reticulocytes when compared to the placebo group. The unblinded Data Monitoring Committee terminated this study early due to a lack of efficacy when it determined that, despite improvements in anaemia and haemolysis, no significant improvement in the rate of sickle cell painful crises was observed in patients treated with senicapoc compared to those on placebo (0·38 vs. 0·31, respectively). Comparisons of the times to first, second and third crises between the senicapoc and placebo groups were not statistically significant. Nausea and urinary tract infections occurred more frequently in the senicapoc group than placebo. Serious adverse events were similar in the two groups. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The burden of acute respiratory infections in crisis-affected populations: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Crises due to armed conflict, forced displacement and natural disasters result in excess morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases. Historically, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) have received relatively little attention in the humanitarian sector. We performed a systematic review to generate evidence on the burden of ARI in crises, and inform prioritisation of relief interventions. We identified 36 studies published since 1980 reporting data on the burden (incidence, prevalence, proportional morbidity or mortality, case-fatality, attributable mortality rate) of ARI, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 and as diagnosed by a clinician, in populations who at the time of the study were affected by natural disasters, armed conflict, forced displacement, and nutritional emergencies. We described studies and stratified data by age group, but did not do pooled analyses due to heterogeneity in case definitions. The published evidence, mainly from refugee camps and surveillance or patient record review studies, suggests very high excess morbidity and mortality (20-35% proportional mortality) and case-fatality (up to 30-35%) due to ARI. However, ARI disease burden comparisons with non-crisis settings are difficult because of non-comparability of data. Better epidemiological studies with clearer case definitions are needed to provide the evidence base for priority setting and programme impact assessments. Humanitarian agencies should include ARI prevention and control among infants, children and adults as priority activities in crises. Improved data collection, case management and vaccine strategies will help to reduce disease burden. PMID:20181220

A social identity model of pro-environmental action (SIMPEA).

PubMed

Fritsche, Immo; Barth, Markus; Jugert, Philipp; Masson, Torsten; Reese, Gerhard

2018-03-01

Large-scale environmental crises are genuinely collective phenomena: they usually result from collective, rather than personal, behavior and how they are cognitively represented and appraised is determined by collectively shared interpretations (e.g., differing across ideological groups) and based on concern for collectives (e.g., humankind, future generations) rather than for individuals. Nevertheless, pro-environmental action has been primarily investigated as a personal decision-making process. We complement this research with a social identity perspective on pro-environmental action. Social identity is the human capacity to define the self in terms of "We" instead of "I," enabling people to think and act as collectives, which should be crucial given personal insufficiency to appraise and effectively respond to environmental crises. We propose a Social Identity Model of Pro-Environmental Action (SIMPEA) of how social identity processes affect both appraisal of and behavioral responses to large-scale environmental crises. We review related and pertinent research providing initial evidence for the role of 4 social identity processes hypothesized in SIMPEA. Specifically, we propose that ingroup identification, ingroup norms and goals, and collective efficacy determine environmental appraisals as well as both private and public sphere environmental action. These processes are driven by personal and collective emotions and motivations that arise from environmental appraisal and operate on both a deliberate and automatic processing level. Finally, we discuss SIMPEA's implications for the research agenda in environmental and social psychology and for interventions fostering pro-environmental action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Showing that you care: the evolution of health altruism.

PubMed

Hanson, Robin

2008-01-01

Human behavior regarding medicine seems strange; assumptions and models that seem workable in other areas seem less so in medicine. Perhaps, we need to rethink the basics. Toward this end, I have collected many puzzling stylized facts about behavior regarding medicine, and have sought a small number of simple assumptions which might together account for as many puzzles as possible. The puzzles I consider include a willingness to provide more medical than other assistance to associates, a desire to be seen as so providing, support for nation, firm, or family provided medical care, placebo benefits of medicine, a small average health value of additional medical spending relative to other health influences, more interest in public that private signals of medical quality, medical spending as an individual necessity but national luxury, a strong stress-mediated health status correlation, and support for regulating health behaviors of the low status. These phenomena seem widespread across time and cultures. I can explain these puzzles moderately well by assuming that humans evolved deep medical habits long ago in an environment where people gained higher status by having more allies, honestly cared about those who remained allies, were unsure who would remain allies, wanted to seem reliable allies, inferred such reliability in part based on who helped who with health crises, tended to suffer more crises requiring non-health investments when having fewer allies, and invested more in cementing allies in good times in order to rely more on them in hard times. These ancient habits would induce modern humans to treat medical care as a way to show that you care. Medical care provided by our allies would reassure us of their concern, and allies would want you and other allies to see that they had pay enough to distinguish themselves from posers who didn't care as much as they. Private information about medical quality is mostly irrelevant to this signaling process. If people with fewer allies are less likely to remain our allies, and if we care about them mainly assuming they remain our allies, then we want them to invest more in health than they would choose for themselves. This tempts us to regulate their health behaviors. This analysis suggests that the future will continue to see robust desires for health behavior regulation and for communal medical care and spending increases as a fraction of income, all regardless of the health effects of these choices.

Using Real-time Event Tracking Sensitivity Analysis to Overcome Sensor Measurement Uncertainties of Geo-Information Management in Drilling Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli, S.; Poslad, S.; Fruhwirth, R.; Winter, M.

2012-04-01

This paper introduces an application of a novel EventTracker platform for instantaneous Sensitivity Analysis (SA) of large scale real-time geo-information. Earth disaster management systems demand high quality information to aid a quick and timely response to their evolving environments. The idea behind the proposed EventTracker platform is the assumption that modern information management systems are able to capture data in real-time and have the technological flexibility to adjust their services to work with specific sources of data/information. However, to assure this adaptation in real time, the online data should be collected, interpreted, and translated into corrective actions in a concise and timely manner. This can hardly be handled by existing sensitivity analysis methods because they rely on historical data and lazy processing algorithms. In event-driven systems, the effect of system inputs on its state is of value, as events could cause this state to change. This 'event triggering' situation underpins the logic of the proposed approach. Event tracking sensitivity analysis method describes the system variables and states as a collection of events. The higher the occurrence of an input variable during the trigger of event, the greater its potential impact will be on the final analysis of the system state. Experiments were designed to compare the proposed event tracking sensitivity analysis with existing Entropy-based sensitivity analysis methods. The results have shown a 10% improvement in a computational efficiency with no compromise for accuracy. It has also shown that the computational time to perform the sensitivity analysis is 0.5% of the time required compared to using the Entropy-based method. The proposed method has been applied to real world data in the context of preventing emerging crises at drilling rigs. One of the major purposes of such rigs is to drill boreholes to explore oil or gas reservoirs with the final scope of recovering the content of such reservoirs; both in onshore regions as well as in offshore regions. Drilling a well is always guided by technical, economic and security constraints to prevent crew, equipment and environment from injury, damage and pollution. Although risk assessment and local practice provides a high degree of security, uncertainty is given by the behaviour of the formation which may cause crucial situations at the rig. To overcome such uncertainties real-time sensor measurements form a base to predict and thus prevent such crises, the proposed method supports the identification of the data necessary for that.

The role of business in addressing the long-term implications of the current food crisis

PubMed Central

Yach, Derek

2008-01-01

Before the onset of the current food crisis, the evidence of a severely neglected nutrition crisis was starting to receive attention. Increased food prices are having severe impacts on the nutritional status of populations. Our current food system has evolved over decades in a largely unplanned manner and without consideration for the complexity and implications of linkages between health, nutrition, agricultural, economic, trade and security issues. The underlying causes for the nutrition crisis include the above, as well as decades of neglect with regard to nutrition, and agricultural science (especially in emerging markets); a failure of governance with respect to the major players involved in nutrition, a weak response by government donors and Foundations to invest in basic nutrition (in contrast to growing support for humanitarian aspects of food aid), and a reluctance to develop private-public partnerships. The emergence of new business models that tackle social problems while remaining profitable offers promise that the long term nutrition needs of people can be met. Businesses can have greater impact acting collectively than individually. Food, retail, food service, chemical and pharmaceutical companies have expertise, distribution systems and customers insights, if well harnessed, could leapfrog progress in addressing the food and nutrition crises. While business can do lots more, its combined impact will be minimal if a range of essential government actions and policies are not addressed. Governments need to create innovative and complementary opportunities that include incentives for businesses including: setting clear nutritional guidelines for fortification and for ready-to eat products; offering agreements to endorse approved products and support their distribution to clinics and schools; eliminating duties on imported vitamins and other micronutrients; and providing tax and other incentives for industry to invest with donors in essential nutrition and agricultural research. Currently governments in developed countries provide a wide range of incentives to the pharmaceutical industry to develop medicated solutions to nutritional problems. We need equivalent effort to be given to the development of more sustainable agricultural and food based solutions. We now face a truly global set of interlinked crises related to food that affect all people. The same degree of urgency and high level leadership and partnership seen during the Second World War is required on a global basis. This time it will need to simultaneously address agricultural, environmental and health considerations with the aim being the attainment of optimal nutrition for all within a framework of sustainable development. PMID:19055848

The role of business in addressing the long-term implications of the current food crisis.

PubMed

Yach, Derek

2008-12-05

Before the onset of the current food crisis, the evidence of a severely neglected nutrition crisis was starting to receive attention. Increased food prices are having severe impacts on the nutritional status of populations. Our current food system has evolved over decades in a largely unplanned manner and without consideration for the complexity and implications of linkages between health, nutrition, agricultural, economic, trade and security issues. The underlying causes for the nutrition crisis include the above, as well as decades of neglect with regard to nutrition, and agricultural science (especially in emerging markets); a failure of governance with respect to the major players involved in nutrition, a weak response by government donors and Foundations to invest in basic nutrition (in contrast to growing support for humanitarian aspects of food aid), and a reluctance to develop private-public partnerships. The emergence of new business models that tackle social problems while remaining profitable offers promise that the long term nutrition needs of people can be met. Businesses can have greater impact acting collectively than individually. Food, retail, food service, chemical and pharmaceutical companies have expertise, distribution systems and customers insights, if well harnessed, could leapfrog progress in addressing the food and nutrition crises. While business can do lots more, its combined impact will be minimal if a range of essential government actions and policies are not addressed. Governments need to create innovative and complementary opportunities that include incentives for businesses including: setting clear nutritional guidelines for fortification and for ready-to eat products; offering agreements to endorse approved products and support their distribution to clinics and schools; eliminating duties on imported vitamins and other micronutrients; and providing tax and other incentives for industry to invest with donors in essential nutrition and agricultural research. Currently governments in developed countries provide a wide range of incentives to the pharmaceutical industry to develop medicated solutions to nutritional problems. We need equivalent effort to be given to the development of more sustainable agricultural and food based solutions. We now face a truly global set of interlinked crises related to food that affect all people. The same degree of urgency and high level leadership and partnership seen during the Second World War is required on a global basis. This time it will need to simultaneously address agricultural, environmental and health considerations with the aim being the attainment of optimal nutrition for all within a framework of sustainable development.

Increased hepatic mitochondrial FA oxidation reduces plasma and liver TG levels and is associated with regulation of UCPs and APOC-III in rats

PubMed Central

Lindquist, Carine; Bjørndal, Bodil; Rossmann, Christine Renate; Tusubira, Deusdedit; Svardal, Asbjørn; Røsland, Gro Vatne; Tronstad, Karl Johan; Hallström, Seth; Berge, Rolf Kristian

2017-01-01

Hepatic mitochondrial function, APOC-III, and LPL are potential targets for triglyceride (TG)-lowering drugs. After 3 weeks of dietary treatment with the compound 2-(tridec-12-yn-1-ylthio)acetic acid (1-triple TTA), the hepatic mitochondrial FA oxidation increased more than 5-fold in male Wistar rats. Gene expression analysis in liver showed significant downregulation of APOC-III and upregulation of LPL and the VLDL receptor. This led to lower hepatic (53%) and plasma (73%) TG levels. Concomitantly, liver-specific biomarkers related to mitochondrial biogenesis and function (mitochondrial DNA, citrate synthase activity, and cytochrome c and TFAM gene expression) were elevated. Interestingly, 1-triple TTA lowered plasma acetylcarnitine levels, whereas the concentration of β-hydroxybutyrate was increased. The hepatic energy state was reduced in 1-triple TTA-treated rats, as reflected by increased AMP/ATP and decreased ATP/ADP ratios, whereas the energy state remained unchanged in muscle and heart. The 1-triple TTA administration induced gene expression of uncoupling protein (UCP)2 and UCP3 in liver. In conclusion, the 1-triple TTA-mediated clearance of blood TG may result from lowered APOC-III production, increased hepatic LPL gene expression, mitochondrial FA oxidation, and (re)uptake of VLDL facilitating drainage of FAs to the liver for β-oxidation and production of ketone bodies as extrahepatic fuel. The possibility that UCP2 and UCP3 mediate a moderate degree of mitochondrial uncoupling should be considered. PMID:28473603

New Futures for Comparative Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butts, R. Freeman

1973-01-01

Author considered the future of comparative education in terms of four interrelated worlds of discourse'', the world of new nations, crises in old nations, the world of scholarship, and the professional world of teacher education. (Author/RK)

The Three Mile Island Disaster.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crosby, Emeral

1980-01-01

For the past decade, education has been experiencing meltdown, explosions, radiation leaks, heat pollution, and management crises, just like the Three Mile Island disaster. This article offers suggestions on how to deal with these problems. (Author/LD)

Humanitarian health computing using artificial intelligence and social media: A narrative literature review.

PubMed

Fernandez-Luque, Luis; Imran, Muhammad

2018-06-01

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), over 130 million people are in constant need of humanitarian assistance due to natural disasters, disease outbreaks, and conflicts, among other factors. These health crises can compromise the resilience of healthcare systems, which are essential for achieving the health objectives of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations (UN). During a humanitarian health crisis, rapid and informed decision making is required. This is often challenging due to information scarcity, limited resources, and strict time constraints. Moreover, the traditional approach to digital health development, which involves a substantial requirement analysis, a feasibility study, and deployment of technology, is ill-suited for many crisis contexts. The emergence of Web 2.0 technologies and social media platforms in the past decade, such as Twitter, has created a new paradigm of massive information and misinformation, in which new technologies need to be developed to aid rapid decision making during humanitarian health crises. Humanitarian health crises increasingly require the analysis of massive amounts of information produced by different sources, such as social media content, and, hence, they are a prime case for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to help identify relevant information and make it actionable. To identify challenges and opportunities for using AI in humanitarian health crises, we reviewed the literature on the use of AI techniques to process social media. We performed a narrative literature review aimed at identifying examples of the use of AI in humanitarian health crises. Our search strategy was designed to get a broad overview of the different applications of AI in a humanitarian health crisis and their challenges. A total of 1459 articles were screened, and 24 articles were included in the final analysis. Successful case studies of AI applications in a humanitarian health crisis have been reported, such as for outbreak detection. A commonly shared concern in the reviewed literature is the technical challenge of analyzing large amounts of data in real time. Data interoperability, which is essential to data sharing, is also a barrier with regard to the integration of online and traditional data sources. Human and organizational aspects that might be key factors for the adoption of AI and social media remain understudied. There is also a publication bias toward high-income countries, as we identified few examples in low-income countries. Further, we did not identify any examples of certain types of major crisis, such armed conflicts, in which misinformation might be more common. The feasibility of using AI to extract valuable information during a humanitarian health crisis is proven in many cases. There is a lack of research on how to integrate the use of AI into the work-flow and large-scale deployments of humanitarian aid during a health crisis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The California Fuel Tax Swap

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

In early 2010, California faced another of its seemingly routine budget crises, this time mostly the result of outstanding debt due on state general obligation (GO) highway and rail bonds.2 For several years, the Legislature had been diverting ...

Youth: A Solution to the Crisis in Central America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manaut, Raul Benitez

1985-01-01

The economic, political, and cultural crises in third world countries have profound effects on youth. Maintains that peace is a synonym for democracy in Central America, and that democracy and peace are youth's principal aspirations. (JDH)

Autonomous Navigation and Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-01

Ball Aerospace, Cincinnati Electronics, COMSAT, DSI, Harris Corporation, M/A-COM, Qualcomm , RCA, Rockwell and SPACECOM. The objective of the satellite...constellation was to provide global prioritized data-voice service during peacetime and essential communications during crises . This was to be

Challenges of the Democratization of Popular Education from the Perspective of Gender.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosero, Rocio

1993-01-01

Economic crises in the Andean region countries have helped deepen and intensify sex discrimination. The contributions of feminism to popular education may enable active participation of women in the democratizing process. (SK)

Higher Education and Regulation: Counting the Costs of Compliance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, John

1975-01-01

Describes the financial crises in colleges and universities caused by the enactment of federal social legislation, such as equal employment opportunity provisions, the Equal Pay Act, minimum wage law, unemployment insurance, and affirmative action programs. (MLH)

Programs for the Principal: A Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Evelyn B.

1972-01-01

A modest survey to determine the nature of existing programs to prepare school principals bears out the author's thesis that these programs should be more responsive to the needs of principals who are enmeshed in today's societal crises. (Editor)

Remain in Your Seats: Crisis Management for the Alumni Travel Director.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonenberger, Lynne M.

1991-01-01

Three alumni travel directors offer advice on taking control when tour crises arise. The cases cited involved irresponsible tour agents, problem travelers, and on-location disasters. Both precautions and creative solutions are emphasized. (MSE)

Planetary Bootstrap: A Prelude to Biosphere Phenomenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazansky, Alexander B.

2004-08-01

This paper deals with systemic status as well as with some phenomenological and evolutionary aspects of biosphere. Biosphere is represented as multilevel autopoietic system in which different organizational levels are nested into each other. The conceptual model of punctuated epigenesis, biosphere evolutionary process is suggested, in which endogenous planetary organizational crises play role of evolutionary mechanism, creating novelty. The hypothesis is proposed, that the biosphere reaction on the humankind destructive activity reminds the distributed immune response of biological organism, described by F.Varela in his "cognitive immunology". The biosphere evolution is interpreted as the hermeneutical spiral of "Process Being" self-uncovering thus illustrating the historical process of transformation of biosphere as the type of Being in the periods of crises. Some arguments are adduced in favor of biosphere phenomenology development and application of the methods of second-order cybernetics to actual problems of planetary scale.

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-01-01

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:21969578

Transnational quarantine rhetorics: public mobilization in SARS and in H1N1 flu.

PubMed

Ding, Huiling

2014-06-01

This essay examines how Chinese governments, local communities, and overseas Chinese in North America responded to the perceived health risks of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 flu through the use of public and participatory rhetoric about risk and quarantines. Focusing on modes of security and quarantine practices, I examine how globalization and the social crises surrounding SARS and H1N1 flu operated to regulate differently certain bodies and areas. I identify three types of quarantines (mandatory, voluntary, and coerced) and conduct a transnational comparative analysis to investigate the relationships among quarantines, rhetoric, and public communication. I argue that health authorities must openly acknowledge the legitimacy of public input and actively seek public support regarding health crises. Only by collaborating with concerned communities and citizens and by providing careful guidance for public participation can health institutions ensure the efficacy of quarantine orders during emerging epidemics.

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-10-18

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

Archetypes of famine and response.

PubMed

Howe, Paul

2010-01-01

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations--watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks--that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neufeld, W.P.

Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we canmore » respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented.« less

Prevention and management of carcinoid crises in patients with high-risk neuroendocrine tumours undergoing peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT): Literature review and case series from two Australian tertiary medical institutions.

PubMed

Tapia Rico, Gonzalo; Li, Minmin; Pavlakis, Nick; Cehic, Gabrielle; Price, Timothy J

2018-05-01

Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) is an important therapeutic option for somatostatin receptor (SSTR) positive metastatic and/or inoperable neuroendocrine tumours (NETs). However, in patients with poorly controlled carcinoid syndrome, it may lead to an acute flare of carcinoid symptoms or even carcinoid crisis. We report seven patients who received PRRT with ( 177 Lu-DOTA 0 , Tyr 3 ) octreotate ( 177 Lu-octreotate-LuTate) across two Australian tertiary medical institutions who developed acute flare of carcinoid symptoms/carcinoid crisis during/after PRRT. Cases were identified as high-risk due to previous history of carcinoid crises, high tumour burden and markedly elevated tumour markers. We propose a protocol to prevent and manage severe carcinoid symptoms in high-risk patients treated with PRRT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert forecasts and the emergence of water scarcity on public agendas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graffy, E.A.

2006-01-01

Expert forecasts of worldwide water scarcity depict conditions that call for proactive, preventive, coordinated water governance, but they have not been matched by public agendas of commensurate scope and urgency in the United States. This disconnect can not be adequately explained without some attention to attributes of forecasts themselves. I propose that the institutional fragmentation of water expertise and prevailing patterns of communication about water scarcity militate against the formulation of a common public definition of the problem and encourage reliance on unambiguous crises to stimulate social and policy agenda setting. I do not argue that expert forecasts should drive public agendas deterministically, but if their purpose is to help prevent water crises (not just predict them), then a greater effort is needed to overcome the barriers to meaningful public scrutiny of expert claims and evaluation of water strategies presently in place. Copyright ?? 2006 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Economic crisis and mental health.

PubMed

Uutela, Antti

2010-03-01

Literature from the past year was examined to learn whether economic recessions have an effect on mental disorders including depression and suicides. Economic recessions and crises have a context-dependent negative impact on mental health disorders. These appear in low-income and middle-income countries whereas some affluent countries are offering provisions that help unemployed persons to escape the detrimental consequences. The Asian economic crisis led to a sharp unemployment-related increase in suicide mortality in east Asian countries. In European Union countries rising unemployment was associated with significant short-term increases in premature deaths from intentional violence including suicides. It seems that active labour market programmes existing in some Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries can prevent some adverse health effects of economic downturns. As mental health consequences of economic crises are context dependent, the current situation needs monitoring. Enough services for those in need should be provided and advocacy for societal support measures is of great importance.

Identifying financial crises in real time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Fonseca, Eder Lucio; Ferreira, Fernando F.; Muruganandam, Paulsamy; Cerdeira, Hilda A.

2013-03-01

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities.

What Good Are Positive Emotions in Crises? A Prospective Study of Resilience and Emotions Following the Terrorist Attacks on the United States on September 11th, 2001

PubMed Central

Fredrickson, Barbara L.; Tugade, Michele M.; Waugh, Christian E.; Larkin, Gregory R.

2009-01-01

Extrapolating from B. L. Fredrickson's (1998, 2001) broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions, the authors hypothesized that positive emotions are active ingredients within trait resilience. U.S. college students (18 men and 28 women) were tested in early 2001 and again in the weeks following the September 11th terrorist attacks. Mediational analyses showed that positive emotions experienced in the wake of the attacks— gratitude, interest, love, and so forth—fully accounted for the relations between (a) precrisis resilience and later development of depressive symptoms and (b) precrisis resilience and postcrisis growth in psychological resources. Findings suggest that positive emotions in the aftermath of crises buffer resilient people against depression and fuel thriving, consistent with the broaden-and-build theory. Discussion touches on implications for coping. PMID:12585810

Financial states of world financial and commodities markets around sovereign debt crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Jae Woo

2017-11-01

We applied a threshold method to construct a complex network from cross-correlations coefficients of 46 daily time series comprised of 23 global indices and 23 commodity futures from 2010 - 2014. We identify financial states of both global indices and commodity futures based on the change of the network structure. The trend of the average correlation is decreasing except sharp peak during crises during the study period. The threshold networks are generated at a threshold value of θ = 0.1 and the change of degrees of each node over time is used to identify the financial state for each index. We observe that commodity futures, such as EU CO2 emission, live cattle, natural gas as well as the financial indices of Jakarta and Indonesia stock exchange (JKSE) and Kuala Lumpur stock exchange (KLSE) change states frequently. By the average change in links we identify the indices which are more reactive to crises.

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Its Partners' Contributions to Global Health Security.

PubMed

Tappero, Jordan W; Cassell, Cynthia H; Bunnell, Rebecca E; Angulo, Frederick J; Craig, Allen; Pesik, Nicki; Dahl, Benjamin A; Ijaz, Kashef; Jafari, Hamid; Martin, Rebecca

2017-12-01

To achieve compliance with the revised World Health Organization International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), countries must be able to rapidly prevent, detect, and respond to public health threats. Most nations, however, remain unprepared to manage and control complex health emergencies, whether due to natural disasters, emerging infectious disease outbreaks, or the inadvertent or intentional release of highly pathogenic organisms. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) works with countries and partners to build and strengthen global health security preparedness so they can quickly respond to public health crises. This report highlights selected CDC global health protection platform accomplishments that help mitigate global health threats and build core, cross-cutting capacity to identify and contain disease outbreaks at their source. CDC contributions support country efforts to achieve IHR 2005 compliance, contribute to the international framework for countering infectious disease crises, and enhance health security for Americans and populations around the world.

Changes of hierarchical network in local and world stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

2017-10-01

We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

2002-01-01

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

[Urban Health (StadtGesundheit): The Wider Perspective Exemplified by the City State of Hamburg].

PubMed

Fehr, R; Fertmann, R; Stender, K-P; Lettau, N; Trojan, A

2016-09-01

Public health and city planning have common roots, and in many places they are now reuniting under the heading of urban health. To organize this field adequately requires a broad, integrative view of medical care, health promotion, and health in all urban policies. Given current crises and developments including climate change and globalization, such a wider perspective should also be useful for Germany. Using the City State of Hamburg as an example and combining historic and systematic approaches, we explore the preconditions for in-depth analyses. Our results show that health is a significant topic of Hamburg urban policy, featuring a broad range of structures, processes and actors, both within the health sector and far beyond. Health promotion over the last 30 years evolved notably from a niche topic into an established field with remarkable cooperative structures. The tradition of comprehensive reporting on urban health in Hamburg that was initiated more than 200 years ago is no longer alive today. However, local health reporting keeps integrating a wide range of diverse topics. Communication among the Hamburg health actors - beyond straightforward medical quality assurance - does not seem to focus on critical evaluations, e. g. concerning social and ecologic sustainability. A prerequisite for in-depth analyses including external comparisons is to secure permanent access to relevant sources. Robust approaches to this end, however, seem to be lacking. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A Missing Element in Migration Theories.

PubMed

Massey, Douglas S

2015-09-01

From the mid-1950s through the mid1980s, migration between Mexico and the United States constituted a stable system whose contours were shaped by social and economic conditions well-theorized by prevailing models of migration. It evolved as a mostly circular movement of male workers going to a handful of U.S. states in response to changing conditions of labor supply and demand north and south of the border, relative wages prevailing in each nation, market failures and structural economic changes in Mexico, and the expansion of migrant networks following processes specified by neoclassical economics, segmented labor market theory, the new economics of labor migration, social capital theory, world systems theory, and theoretical models of state behavior. After 1986, however, the migration system was radically transformed, with the net rate of migration increasing sharply as movement shifted from a circular flow of male workers going a limited set of destinations to a nationwide population of settled families. This transformation stemmed from a dynamic process that occurred in the public arena to bring about an unprecedented militarization of the Mexico-U.S. border, and not because of shifts in social, economic, or political factors specified in prevailing theories. In this paper I draw on earlier work to describe that dynamic process and demonstrate its consequences, underscoring the need for greater theoretical attention to the self-interested actions of politicians, pundits, and bureaucrats who benefit from the social construction and political manufacture of immigration crises when none really exist.

Unexpected Early Triassic marine ecosystem and the rise of the Modern evolutionary fauna.

PubMed

Brayard, Arnaud; Krumenacker, L J; Botting, Joseph P; Jenks, James F; Bylund, Kevin G; Fara, Emmanuel; Vennin, Emmanuelle; Olivier, Nicolas; Goudemand, Nicolas; Saucède, Thomas; Charbonnier, Sylvain; Romano, Carlo; Doguzhaeva, Larisa; Thuy, Ben; Hautmann, Michael; Stephen, Daniel A; Thomazo, Christophe; Escarguel, Gilles

2017-02-01

In the wake of the end-Permian mass extinction, the Early Triassic (~251.9 to 247 million years ago) is portrayed as an environmentally unstable interval characterized by several biotic crises and heavily depauperate marine benthic ecosystems. We describe a new fossil assemblage-the Paris Biota-from the earliest Spathian (middle Olenekian, ~250.6 million years ago) of the Bear Lake area, southeastern Idaho, USA. This highly diversified assemblage documents a remarkably complex marine ecosystem including at least seven phyla and 20 distinct metazoan orders, along with algae. Most unexpectedly, it combines early Paleozoic and middle Mesozoic taxa previously unknown from the Triassic strata, among which are primitive Cambrian-Ordovician leptomitid sponges (a 200-million year Lazarus taxon) and gladius-bearing coleoid cephalopods, a poorly documented group before the Jurassic (~50 million years after the Early Triassic). Additionally, the crinoid and ophiuroid specimens show derived anatomical characters that were thought to have evolved much later. Unlike previous works that suggested a sluggish postcrisis recovery and a low diversity for the Early Triassic benthic organisms, the unexpected composition of this exceptional assemblage points toward an early and rapid post-Permian diversification for these clades. Overall, it illustrates a phylogenetically diverse, functionally complex, and trophically multileveled marine ecosystem, from primary producers up to top predators and potential scavengers. Hence, the Paris Biota highlights the key evolutionary position of Early Triassic fossil ecosystems in the transition from the Paleozoic to the Modern marine evolutionary fauna at the dawn of the Mesozoic era.

A Missing Element in Migration Theories

PubMed Central

Massey, Douglas S.

2016-01-01

From the mid-1950s through the mid1980s, migration between Mexico and the United States constituted a stable system whose contours were shaped by social and economic conditions well-theorized by prevailing models of migration. It evolved as a mostly circular movement of male workers going to a handful of U.S. states in response to changing conditions of labor supply and demand north and south of the border, relative wages prevailing in each nation, market failures and structural economic changes in Mexico, and the expansion of migrant networks following processes specified by neoclassical economics, segmented labor market theory, the new economics of labor migration, social capital theory, world systems theory, and theoretical models of state behavior. After 1986, however, the migration system was radically transformed, with the net rate of migration increasing sharply as movement shifted from a circular flow of male workers going a limited set of destinations to a nationwide population of settled families. This transformation stemmed from a dynamic process that occurred in the public arena to bring about an unprecedented militarization of the Mexico-U.S. border, and not because of shifts in social, economic, or political factors specified in prevailing theories. In this paper I draw on earlier work to describe that dynamic process and demonstrate its consequences, underscoring the need for greater theoretical attention to the self-interested actions of politicians, pundits, and bureaucrats who benefit from the social construction and political manufacture of immigration crises when none really exist. PMID:27398085

A GCH1 haplotype confers sex-specific susceptibility to pain crises and altered endothelial function in adults with sickle cell anemia

PubMed Central

Belfer, Inna; Youngblood, Victoria; Darbari, Deepika S.; Wang, Zhengyuan; Diaw, Lena; Freeman, Lita; Desai, Krupa; Dizon, Michael; Allen, Darlene; Cunnington, Colin; Channon, Keith M.; Milton, Jacqueline; Hartley, Stephen W.; Nolan, Vikki; Kato, Gregory J.; Steinberg, Martin H.; Goldman, David; Taylor, James G.

2014-01-01

GTP cyclohydrolase (GCH1) is rate limiting for tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) synthesis, where BH4 is a cofactor for nitric oxide (NO) synthases and aromatic hydroxylases. GCH1 polymorphisms are implicated in the pathophysiology of pain, but have not been investigated in African populations. We examined GCH1 and pain in sickle cell anemia where GCH1 rs8007267 was a risk factor for pain crises in discovery (n = 228; odds ratio [OR] 2.26; P = 0.009) and replication (n = 513; OR 2.23; P = 0.004) cohorts. In vitro, cells from sickle cell anemia subjects homozygous for the risk allele produced higher BH4. In vivo physiological studies of traits likely to be modulated by GCH1 showed rs8007267 is associated with altered endothelial dependent blood flow in females with SCA (8.42% of variation; P = 0.002). The GCH1 pain association is attributable to an African haplotype with where its sickle cell anemia pain association is limited to females (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.21–5.94; P = 0.01) and has the opposite directional association described in Europeans independent of global admixture. The presence of a GCH1 haplotype with high BH4 in populations of African ancestry could explain the association of rs8007267 with sickle cell anemia pain crises. The vascular effects of GCH1 and BH4 may also have broader implications for cardiovascular disease in populations of African ancestry. PMID:24136375

Proposed recommendations for diagnosing and managing individuals with glutaric aciduria type I: second revision.

PubMed

Boy, Nikolas; Mühlhausen, Chris; Maier, Esther M; Heringer, Jana; Assmann, Birgit; Burgard, Peter; Dixon, Marjorie; Fleissner, Sandra; Greenberg, Cheryl R; Harting, Inga; Hoffmann, Georg F; Karall, Daniela; Koeller, David M; Krawinkel, Michael B; Okun, Jürgen G; Opladen, Thomas; Posset, Roland; Sahm, Katja; Zschocke, Johannes; Kölker, Stefan

2017-01-01

Glutaric aciduria type I (GA-I; synonym, glutaric acidemia type I) is a rare inherited metabolic disease caused by deficiency of glutaryl-CoA dehydrogenase located in the catabolic pathways of L-lysine, L-hydroxylysine, and L-tryptophan. The enzymatic defect results in elevated concentrations of glutaric acid, 3-hydroxyglutaric acid, glutaconic acid, and glutaryl carnitine in body tissues, which can be reliably detected by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (organic acids) and tandem mass spectrometry (acylcarnitines). Most untreated individuals with GA-I experience acute encephalopathic crises during the first 6 years of life that are triggered by infectious diseases, febrile reaction to vaccinations, and surgery. These crises result in striatal injury and consequent dystonic movement disorder; thus, significant mortality and morbidity results. In some patients, neurologic disease may also develop without clinically apparent crises at any age. Neonatal screening for GA-I us being used in a growing number of countries worldwide and is cost effective. Metabolic treatment, consisting of low lysine diet, carnitine supplementation, and intensified emergency treatment during catabolism, is effective treatment and improves neurologic outcome in those individuals diagnosed early; treatment after symptom onset, however, is less effective. Dietary treatment is relaxed after age 6 years and should be supervised by specialized metabolic centers. The major aim of this second revision of proposed recommendations is to re-evaluate the previous recommendations (Kölker et al. J Inherit Metab Dis 30:5-22, 2007b; J Inherit Metab Dis 34:677-694, 2011) and add new research findings, relevant clinical aspects, and the perspective of affected individuals.

The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Suhrcke, Marc; Stuckler, David; Suk, Jonathan E.; Desai, Monica; Senek, Michaela; McKee, Martin; Tsolova, Svetla; Basu, Sanjay; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Hunter, Paul; Rechel, Boika; Semenza, Jan C.

2011-01-01

There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the “SIR” (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control. PMID:21695209

The effectiveness of an intensive care quick reference checklist manual--a randomized simulation-based trial.

PubMed

Just, Katja S; Hubrich, Svenja; Schmidtke, Daniel; Scheifes, Andrea; Gerbershagen, Mark U; Wappler, Frank; Grensemann, Joern

2015-04-01

We aimed to test the effectiveness of checklists for emergency procedures on medical staff performance in intensive care crises. This is a prospective single-center randomized trial in a high-fidelity simulation center modeling an intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary care hospital in Germany. Teams consisted of 1 ICU resident and 2 ICU nurses (in total, n = 48). All completed 4 crisis scenarios, in which they were randomized to use checklists or to perform without any aid. In 2 of the scenarios, checklists could be used immediately (type 1 scenarios); and for the remaining, some further steps, for example, confirming diagnosis, were required first (type 2 scenarios). Outcome measurements were number of predefined items and time to completion of more than 50% and more than 75% of steps, respectively. When using checklists, participants initiated items faster and more completely according to appropriate treatment guidelines (9 vs 7 items with and without checklists, P < .05). Benefit of checklists was better in type 2 scenarios than in type 1 scenarios (2 vs 1 additional item, P < .05). In type 2 scenarios, time to complete 50% and 75% of items was faster with the use of checklists (P < .005). Use of checklists in ICU crises has a benefit on the completion of critical treatment steps. Within the type 2 scenarios, items were fulfilled faster with checklists. The implementation of checklists for intensive care crises is a promising approach that may improve patients' care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Space-Derived Transparency: Players, Policies, Implications, and Synergies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnan, C. J.

2001-06-01

Space-derived transparency will become a common means of monitoring, preventing, and mitigating crises, verifying compliance with treaties and law, and enabling confidence and security building measures. Democratization and globalization, the proliferation of information technologies, the availability of commercial space high-resolution imagery, and the growing influence of NGOs invite this question: What is (space-derived) transparency and what effect does it have on US security policy? Three camps have emerged in the debate -Horaeists who seek to build a transnational society through complete transparency; Preservationists, mostly military, who fear the threat to national security, want to deny most space-derived information to non-traditional/non-state actors; and Synergists who seek to capitalize on the best of both camps. There is evidence suggesting that space-derived transparency is an inevitable trend and will resist even the best means of preservationist control. Space-derived transparency may change the dynamic of the security environment by introducing new players into the policy fomentation and implementation process. These players, if not properly schooled in imagery analysis or the potential effects of their use of misinterpreted space-derived imagery, could force policy makers to make fast, ill-considered decisions in order to respond to incidents. In some cases this fast response will defuse potential crises and in other situations these rushed decisions might result in policies without considering the potential consequences, which could turn incidents into crises. Space-derived transparency is a step forward into the future for each camp . . . the challenge for the United States lies in forging synergies in an increasingly transparent world while maintaining the balance between openness and security.

High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health.

PubMed

Brinkman, Henk-Jan; de Pee, Saskia; Sanogo, Issa; Subran, Ludovic; Bloem, Martin W

2010-01-01

A global economic and financial crisis is engulfing the developing world, coming on top of high food and fuel prices. This paper assesses the impact of the crises on food consumption, nutrition, and health. Several methods were applied, including risk analysis using the cost of the food basket, assessment surveys, simulations, regression analysis using a food consumption score (FCS), reflecting diet frequency and diversity, and a review of the impact of such dietary changes on nutritional status and health. The cost of the food basket increased in several countries, forcing households to reduce quality and quantity of food consumed. The FCS, which is a measure of diet diversity, is negatively correlated with food prices. Simulations show that energy consumption declined during 2006-2010 in nearly all developing regions, resulting potentially in an additional 457 million people (of 4.5 billion) at risk of being hungry and many more unable to afford the dietary quality required to perform, develop, and grow well. As a result of the crises, large numbers of vulnerable households have reduced the quality and quantity of foods they consume and are at risk of increased malnutrition. Population groups most affected are those with the highest requirements, including young children, pregnant and lactating women, and the chronically ill (particularly people with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis). Because undernutrition during the first 2 y of life has life-long consequences, even short-term price rises will have long-term effects. Thus, measures to mitigate the impact of the crises are urgently required.

When the Unthinkable Happens.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabo, Sandra R.

1995-01-01

College and university public relations professionals offer advice on coping with campus crises. Suggestions include responding quickly, telling the truth to the media early, trading on relationships within the campus community, capitalizing on institutional credibility with the media, remembering internal audiences, understanding legal…

Cool Heads: Crisis Management for Administrators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smiar, Nicholas P.

1992-01-01

Applies risk management models to child care administration. These models have been used by corporations to plan for crisis management. The formation of a crisis management policy and procedure is described, and features of effective communication during crises are outlined. (GLR)

Current Crises in Public Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, Robert B., Jr.

1983-01-01

Argues that the organizational crisis and the crisis in legitimacy that face public education stem from a fundamental violation of the moral precepts that underlie our experiment in self-government. Citizens and parents have become limited partners in educational decision making. (JOW)

Social Workers and Politics: Lessons from Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ginsberg, Leon

1988-01-01

Describes the workings of the political system as it is important to social workers. Discusses three significant issues in politics: (1) the role of money; (2) crises as pervasive political phenomena; and (3) the habituating nature of political participation. (ABL)

Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

EPA Science Inventory

Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

Identity Transformation of Korean Immigrants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Saekyung; Gaa, John; Swank, Paul; Liberman, Dov

Immigration is one of the most significant changes which can occur in one's lifetime. Immigrants struggle with their foreign environment and renewed crises; they suffer from "uprootedness" and "missed embeddedness" and have difficulty integrating their identity roles. Erikson's psychosocial development theory and Marcia's…

Malaise Turns into Determination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Vocational Journal, 1976

1976-01-01

Activities of the Home Economics Division at the American Vocational Association's 1975 Convention are summarized; addressed were the field's identity and image crises engendered by women's liberation and male chauvinism, and threats to significant Federal legislation in divisiveness, consequent exclusion from vocational education definitions, and…

Developing Community College Faculty as Leaders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Joanne E.; Pagotto, Louise

2003-01-01

Discusses the national crises of community college leadership in America. Describes the role of faculty members in community college leadership. Describes motivational factors involved in college leadership, some leadership challenges, leadership development initiatives, and some opportunities for faculty leadership development. Also describes two…

When Crisis Strikes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Mildred; Morales, Arturo; Dowell, Mary

1999-01-01

Natural disasters, violent confrontations, and other crises will bring in police or firefighters, followed quickly by the press and the public. School officials should respond carefully and appropriately. Solutions (and examples from California law) pertaining to privacy rights, workplace safety, sex offenders, background checks, and communication…

Introducing the World Population Crises to Secondary Social Studies Classes: An Inquiry-Oriented Instructional Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Randall C.

1970-01-01

The author contends that students must be alerted to the dangers of overpopulation of the world and to the methods that exist to control population growth. He suggests topics for student inquiry. (CK)

Horizon: 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Mary Louise

1980-01-01

Ten important goals for trustees during the 1980s include: long-range planning; educational diversity; public relations; self-regulation; selection of chief executive officers; role of policy making; fully informed governing boards; facing crises; use of incentives to reach institutional goals; and keeping the individual campus as the…

Preparing for a Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perea, Rosalie D.; Morrison, Shirley

1997-01-01

To handle unforeseen crises, Albuquerque Public Schools established a critical-incident response team with a simple, understandable chain of command. The group aims to ensure maximum safety and people' well-being, develop a districtwide crisis-response-management plan, coordinate necessary training, and collaborate with community agencies…

Even in Public Television, Ownership Changes Matter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lashley, Marilyn E.

1992-01-01

Shows that executive turnover through four administrations (1967-89) has kept public broadcasting mired in budgetary crises, transforming its goals, structure, and programing content over time. Describes policy preferences imposed by administrators, identifies attendant modifications in organizational structure, and delineates effects of these…

Crisis Communication Plans: Poor Predictors of Excellent Crisis Public Relations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marra, Francis J.

1998-01-01

Argues that newly developed theory in crisis public relations suggests a shift is necessary in the way practitioners view crises. Notes that the new paradigm defines excellent crisis public relations very differently from the literature of the past 20 years. (RS)

Response to Agencywide Crisis: A Model for Administrative Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alwon, Floyd J.

1980-01-01

Guidelines are suggested whereby mental health agency administrators can promote organizational growth and avoid dangers during an agency crisis. Emphasis is placed on the administrator's comprehension of leadership styles and task organization. Typical staff reactions to agency crises are described. (Author/DB)

Corporate Psychology: An Answer to Occupational Mental Health.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leonards, Jeffrey T.

1981-01-01

Studies corporate in-house, human resource programs. Suggests these programs provide psychological assistance for problems considered to be normal episodes of human development. Proposes most of the developmental crises encountered by the corporate psychologist are associated with stress, midlife, or career development. (Author)

Adolescents' Civic and Organizational Activity: An Experimental Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dashkevich, O. V.; Slavgorodskaia, E. L.

1995-01-01

Reports on the attitudes of 175 Russian adolescents and their teachers toward civic and community service activities. Argues that economic and social crises have created negative attitudes towards community service. Finds that students who are involved in community activities are more optimistic. (CFR)

University Reform and Institutional Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolman, Frederick D.

1970-01-01

Sporadic investigations of university crises will not save higher education. Institutional research must become the catalyst of our philosophical as well as our methodological approach to the university. Address delivered at Annual Forum of Association for Institutional Research, May 5, 1969, Chicago, Illinois. (Author/AD)

The Real Challenge of ESD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, M. G.

2011-01-01

Between the Inter-governmental Conference on Environmental Education at Tbilisi in 1977 and the Fourth International Conference on Environmental Education at Ahmedabad in 2007, our conception of the challenge posed by the global crises of climate change, environmental destruction, social disintegration, poverty, natural resources exhaustion and…

The Teaching of Anthropology: A Comparative Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombard, Jacques

1984-01-01

College-level anthropology teaching in various countries, including Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Yugoslavia, is compared. Terminology is examined and historical background is provided. Also discussed are educational crises, the organization of teaching, and teaching methods. (RM)

Preface: Biocatalysis and Agricultural Biotechnology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This book was assembled with the intent of bringing together current advances and in-depth reviews of biocatalysis and agricultural biotechnology with emphasis on bio-based products and agricultural biotechnology. Recent energy and food crises point out the importance of bio-based products from ren...

Agricultural Education: Key to Providing Broader Opportunities for Third World Women in Production Agriculture.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lelle, Mark A.; Holt, Barbara A.

1987-01-01

The authors focus on providing opportunities for women in Third World countries in agriculture. A review of the body of knowledge in agricultural development and of the issues surrounding current world food crises is included. (CH)

Decision analysis. Clinical art or Clinical Science

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-05-01

having helped some clients. Over the past half century, psychotherapy has faced a series of crises concerned with its transformation from an art to a...clinical science . These include validation of the effectiveness of various forms of therapy, validating elements of treatment programs and

An assessment of options for integrating taxicabs into an urban environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-01

Discussions surrounding the inclusion of taxicabs into the planning processes in urban areas have been ongoing since the oil crises of the 1970s. While there are some commonalties in the regulatory guidelines concerning taxicabs, most of the regulati...

Understanding the importance of an energy crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechtenberg, Abigail Reid

Human development and energy, in general, and electrical energy, specifically, co-exist seamlessly in high HDI countries where reliability and availability is greater than 99%. In numerous low HDI countries, there is 2-50% electric grid availability with reliability at or below 50% due to load shedding and faults. In Africa, solar, wind, biomass and hydroelectric energy production are cited to meet growing demand and increase reliability and availability; however, the capital costs are greater than the ability-to-pay for wide scale implementation. Since the 1970s, the United States has continued to argue over the new sustainable energy infrastructure solution(s); thus resulting in no new infrastructure being built for wide scale implementation. Together the world is facing the daunting task of averting an energy crisis in developed countries and facing energy crises in developing countries. This thesis explores the importance of energy crises: from the past, current, and future. The first part entails arguing that the United States is not on a pathway to prevent an energy crisis based on an analysis of 1986 and 2004 niche and status-quo manufacturing of light-duty vehicles. The second part answers the question of what an energy crisis looks like by exploring and investigating current electrical energy crises in Fort Portal, Uganda. This part used both anthropological and physics education empowerment research to co-design and build for various energy crisis situations in hospitals, schools, and businesses all from locally available materials and expertise. Finally, looking into the US light-duty vehicle's future, I design a new hybrid vehicle powertrain (called transition mode hybrid). This third part describes my new patent as a way to avert an energy crisis in the light-duty transportation sector.

Pneumomédiastin compliquant une crise d’éclampsie: à propos d'un cas

PubMed Central

Doumiri, Mouhssine; Motiaa, Youssef; Oudghiri, Nezha; Saoud, Anas Tazi

2014-01-01

Le pneumomédiastin associé à l'emphysème sous cutané et le pneumothorax, sont des complications rares de la grossesse et surviennent au cours du travail obstétrical. Nous rapportons l'observation d'une parturiente de 25ans, sans antécédent pathologique particulier, admise pour une crise d’éclampsie à 36 semaines d'aménorrhées avec une mort fœtale et trouble de la conscience. L'examen clinique a montré un emphysème sous cutané étendu du visage jusqu’à l'abdomen sans notion de traumatisme et un score de Glasgow à 10. Après mise en condition, traitement de la crise d’éclampsie, stabilisation de la tension artérielle et retour à l’état de conscience, une TDM cervico-thoraco-abdominale a été demandée et a révélé la présence d'un pneumomédiastin important avec un discret pneumothorax droit postérieur et un pneumopéritoine important qui n'ont pas nécessité de drainage pleural. Deux jours après son admission, la patiente a expulsé un mort-né d'un poids de 1800 grammes avec forceps et sans efforts d'expulsions sous analgésie péridurale. Le contrôle radiologique à une semaine a noté une nette diminution de l'emphysème sous cutané et du pneumomédiastin. La patiente a quitté l'hôpital après dix jours. PMID:25838864

The Greenhouse Effect and the Destruction of the Ozone Shield: Implications for Rhetoric and Criticism.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoller, Martin Reid

Rhetoric, in the Aristotelian sense of "the available means of persuasion," is a crucial, often determining component of the process of making public policy generally, and environmental policy specifically. Environmental crises which have been addressed by the governmental, industrial, and social policy -making establishments have tended to be treated in a manner similar to that in which social, political, economic, military, and other problems have been commonly treated, utilizing a traditional rhetoric, including long-proven persuasive language and arguments. Such problems as air pollution and water pollution have been, to some degree, successfully addressed in this manner. A new and fundamentally different cluster of environmental problems has recently been recognized by elements of the policy making establishment as a legitimate candidate for consideration and policy formation. These environmental problems differ from the more familiar type in a variety of ways, each of which, to a greater or lesser degree, make problematic for those activists concerned with these crises the production of an effective crisis-oriented rhetoric. This study addresses two such closely related phenomena, the Greenhouse Effect and ozone depletion, and identifies those characteristics which contribute to their rhetorical complexity. Using traditional techniques of rhetorical examination, primarily neo-Aristotelian analysis, this study demonstrates the inadequacy of current crisis-oriented rhetoric, and identifies the causes of this rhetorical ineffectiveness. The study concludes that the mediation of such crises as the Greenhouse Effect and ozone depletion cannot be significantly facilitated by traditional environmental-oriented rhetoric, and may in fact be hindered by the use of rhetoric associated with fundamentally different (i.e., easier to solve) environmental problems.

Clinical and Geographic Characterization of 30-Day Readmissions in Pediatric Sickle Cell Crisis Patients.

PubMed

McMillan, Jefferson E; Meier, Emily R; Winer, Jeffrey C; Coco, Megan; Daymont, Mary; Long, Sierra; Jacobs, Brian R

2015-08-01

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a blood disorder affecting many US children that is often associated with hospital readmission. Although previous studies have reported on the clinical factors that influence readmission risk, potential geographic factors have not been fully investigated. The goal of this study was to investigate the importance of geographic risk factors and to confirm previously derived clinical risk factors that influence readmissions for SCD pain crises. Retrospective analyses were performed on pediatric inpatients with sickle cell crises at a single center. Readmission rates and risk factors were assessed. Geospatial analysis was conducted on point variables that represented health service access, and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed. The study identified 373 patients experiencing sickle cell crises, with 125 (33.5%) having at least one 30-day readmission. Age (mean difference: 2.2 years; P<0.001), length of stay (median difference: 1 day; P<.001), admission pain score>7 of 10 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.21; P<0.01), discharge pain score>4 of 10 (OR: 2.098; P<.01), living within 5 miles of the center's main hospital (OR: 0.573; P=.04), and >3 hospital utilizations in the previous 12 months (OR: 5.103; P<.001) were identified as potential indicators of 30-day readmission risk. Logistic regression models for 30-day readmissions yielded similar results. Increased age, high admission and discharge pain scores, decreased length of stay, and increased hospital utilizations were found to be associated with an increased risk of readmission for sickle cell crisis. Patient's residence was also found to be a significant risk indicator, supporting the utility of geospatial analysis in assessing readmission risk. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Suicidal Ideation and Subsequent Suicide Attempts among Adolescent Inpatients

PubMed Central

Czyz, E.K.; King, C.A.

2013-01-01

Objective A period of particularly high risk for suicide attempts among adolescent inpatients is within 12 months after discharge. However, little is known about longitudinal trajectories of suicidal ideation in this high-risk group and how these relate to post-hospitalization suicide attempts and rehospitalizations. Our objectives were to identify these trajectories and examine their relationships with post-hospitalization psychiatric crises. We also examined predictors of trajectory group membership. Method Participants (N=376; ages 13-17; 72% females) were assessed at hospitalization and 3, 6, and 12 months later. Trajectory groups, and their predictors, were identified with latent class growth modeling. We used logistic regression to examine associations between trajectory groups and likelihood of suicide attempts and rehospitalization, controlling for attempt history. Results Three trajectory groups were identified: (1) subclinical ideators (31.6%); (2) elevated ideators with rapidly declining ideation (57.4%); and (3) chronically elevated ideators (10.9%). Adolescents in the chronically elevated ideation group had 2.29[(CI=1.08,4.85), p=0.03] and 4.15[(CI=1.65,10.44), p<0.01] greater odds of attempting suicide and 3.23[(CI=1.37,7.69), p=0.01] and 11.20[(CI=4.33,29.01), p<0.001] greater odds of rehospitalization relative to rapidly declining and subclinical groups, respectively. Higher baseline hopelessness was associated with persisting suicidal ideation. Conclusions Results suggest that suicidal ideation severity at hospitalization may not be an adequate marker for subsequent suicidal crises. It is important to identify adolescents vulnerable to persisting suicidal ideation, as they are at highest risk of psychiatric crises. Addressing hopelessness may facilitate faster declines in ideation after hospitalization. Results also highlight a need for consistent monitoring of these adolescents' suicidal ideation after discharge. PMID:24079705

Competitive market for multiple firms and economic crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Yong

2010-09-01

The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolistic-competitive markets obey Boltzmann statistics) and that how interaction among firms influences the evolutionary of competitive markets. It has been widely accepted that perfect competition is most efficient. Our study shows that the perfectly competitive system, as an extreme case of competitive markets, is most efficient but not stable, and gives rise to economic crises as society reaches full employment. In the economic crisis revealed by our model, many firms condense (collapse) into the lowest supply level (zero supply, namely, bankruptcy status), in analogy to Bose-Einstein condensation. This curious phenomenon arises because perfect competition (homogeneous competitions) equals symmetric (indistinguishable) investment direction, a fact abhorred by nature. Therefore, we urge the promotion of monopolistic competition (heterogeneous competitions) rather than perfect competition. To provide early warning of economic crises, we introduce a resolving index of investment, which approaches zero in the run-up to an economic crisis. On the other hand, our model discloses, as a profound conclusion, that the technological level for a long-run social or economic system is proportional to the freedom (disorder) of this system; in other words, technology equals the entropy of system. As an application of this concept, we give a possible answer to the Needham question: “Why was it that despite the immense achievements of traditional China it had been in Europe and not in China that the scientific and industrial revolutions occurred?”

Competitive market for multiple firms and economic crisis.

PubMed

Tao, Yong

2010-09-01

The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolistic-competitive markets obey Boltzmann statistics) and that how interaction among firms influences the evolutionary of competitive markets. It has been widely accepted that perfect competition is most efficient. Our study shows that the perfectly competitive system, as an extreme case of competitive markets, is most efficient but not stable, and gives rise to economic crises as society reaches full employment. In the economic crisis revealed by our model, many firms condense (collapse) into the lowest supply level (zero supply, namely, bankruptcy status), in analogy to Bose-Einstein condensation. This curious phenomenon arises because perfect competition (homogeneous competitions) equals symmetric (indistinguishable) investment direction, a fact abhorred by nature. Therefore, we urge the promotion of monopolistic competition (heterogeneous competitions) rather than perfect competition. To provide early warning of economic crises, we introduce a resolving index of investment, which approaches zero in the run-up to an economic crisis. On the other hand, our model discloses, as a profound conclusion, that the technological level for a long-run social or economic system is proportional to the freedom (disorder) of this system; in other words, technology equals the entropy of system. As an application of this concept, we give a possible answer to the Needham question: "Why was it that despite the immense achievements of traditional China it had been in Europe and not in China that the scientific and industrial revolutions occurred?"

A Bayesian hierarchical model for mortality data from cluster-sampling household surveys in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Heudtlass, Peter; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Speybroeck, Niko

2018-05-31

The crude death rate (CDR) is one of the defining indicators of humanitarian emergencies. When data from vital registration systems are not available, it is common practice to estimate the CDR from household surveys with cluster-sampling design. However, sample sizes are often too small to compare mortality estimates to emergency thresholds, at least in a frequentist framework. Several authors have proposed Bayesian methods for health surveys in humanitarian crises. Here, we develop an approach specifically for mortality data and cluster-sampling surveys. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson-Gamma mixture model with generic (weakly informative) priors that could be used as default in absence of any specific prior knowledge, and compare Bayesian and frequentist CDR estimates using five different mortality datasets. We provide an interpretation of the Bayesian estimates in the context of an emergency threshold and demonstrate how to interpret parameters at the cluster level and ways in which informative priors can be introduced. With the same set of weakly informative priors, Bayesian CDR estimates are equivalent to frequentist estimates, for all practical purposes. The probability that the CDR surpasses the emergency threshold can be derived directly from the posterior of the mean of the mixing distribution. All observation in the datasets contribute to the estimation of cluster-level estimates, through the hierarchical structure of the model. In a context of sparse data, Bayesian mortality assessments have advantages over frequentist ones already when using only weakly informative priors. More informative priors offer a formal and transparent way of combining new data with existing data and expert knowledge and can help to improve decision-making in humanitarian crises by complementing frequentist estimates.

Everyday resilience in district health systems: emerging insights from the front lines in Kenya and South Africa

PubMed Central

Gilson, Lucy; Barasa, Edwine; Nxumalo, Nonhlanhla; Cleary, Susan; Goudge, Jane; Molyneux, Sassy; Tsofa, Benjamin; Lehmann, Uta

2017-01-01

Recent global crises have brought into sharp relief the absolute necessity of resilient health systems that can recognise and react to societal crises. While such crises focus the global mind, the real work lies, however, in being resilient in the face of routine, multiple challenges. But what are these challenges and what is the work of nurturing everyday resilience in health systems? This paper considers these questions, drawing on long-term, primarily qualitative research conducted in three different district health system settings in Kenya and South Africa, and adopting principles from case study research methodology and meta-synthesis in its analytic approach. The paper presents evidence of the instability and daily disruptions managed at the front lines of the district health system. These include patient complaints, unpredictable staff, compliance demands, organisational instability linked to decentralisation processes and frequently changing, and sometimes unclear, policy imperatives. The paper also identifies managerial responses to these challenges and assesses whether or not they indicate everyday resilience, using two conceptual lenses. From this analysis, we suggest that such resilience seems to arise from the leadership offered by multiple managers, through a combination of strategies that become embedded in relationships and managerial routines, drawing on wider organisational capacities and resources. While stable governance structures and adequate resources do influence everyday resilience, they are not enough to sustain it. Instead, it appears important to nurture the power of leaders across every system to reframe challenges, strengthen their routine practices in ways that encourage mindful staff engagement, and develop social networks within and outside organisations. Further research can build on these insights to deepen understanding. PMID:29081995

Everyday resilience in district health systems: emerging insights from the front lines in Kenya and South Africa.

PubMed

Gilson, Lucy; Barasa, Edwine; Nxumalo, Nonhlanhla; Cleary, Susan; Goudge, Jane; Molyneux, Sassy; Tsofa, Benjamin; Lehmann, Uta

2017-01-01

Recent global crises have brought into sharp relief the absolute necessity of resilient health systems that can recognise and react to societal crises. While such crises focus the global mind, the real work lies, however, in being resilient in the face of routine, multiple challenges. But what are these challenges and what is the work of nurturing everyday resilience in health systems? This paper considers these questions, drawing on long-term, primarily qualitative research conducted in three different district health system settings in Kenya and South Africa, and adopting principles from case study research methodology and meta-synthesis in its analytic approach. The paper presents evidence of the instability and daily disruptions managed at the front lines of the district health system. These include patient complaints, unpredictable staff, compliance demands, organisational instability linked to decentralisation processes and frequently changing, and sometimes unclear, policy imperatives. The paper also identifies managerial responses to these challenges and assesses whether or not they indicate everyday resilience, using two conceptual lenses. From this analysis, we suggest that such resilience seems to arise from the leadership offered by multiple managers, through a combination of strategies that become embedded in relationships and managerial routines, drawing on wider organisational capacities and resources. While stable governance structures and adequate resources do influence everyday resilience, they are not enough to sustain it. Instead, it appears important to nurture the power of leaders across every system to reframe challenges, strengthen their routine practices in ways that encourage mindful staff engagement, and develop social networks within and outside organisations. Further research can build on these insights to deepen understanding.

Hair Regenerative Mechanisms of Red Ginseng Oil and Its Major Components in the Testosterone-Induced Delay of Anagen Entry in C57BL/6 Mice.

PubMed

Truong, Van-Long; Bak, Min Ji; Lee, Changook; Jun, Mira; Jeong, Woo-Sik

2017-09-08

Hair loss (alopecia) is a universal problem for numerous people in the world. The present study was conducted to investigate the effects of red ginseng oil (RGO) and its major components on hair re-growth using testosterone (TES)-induced delay of anagen entry in C57BL/6 mice and their mechanisms of action. Seven-week-old C57BL/6 mice were daily treated with TES for 1 h prior to topical application of 10% RGO, 1% linoleic acid (LA), 1% β-sitosterol (SITOS), or 1% bicyclo(10.1.0)tridec-1-ene (BICYCLO) once a day for 28 days. Hair regenerative capacity was significantly restored by treatment of RGO and its major compounds in the TES-treated mice. Histological analysis showed that RGO along with LA and SITOS but not BICYCLO promoted hair growth through early inducing anagen phase that was delayed by TES in mice. Treatment of mice with RGO, LA, or SITOS up-regulated Wnt/β-catenin and Shh/Gli pathways-mediated expression of genes such as β-catenin, Lef-1, Sonic hedgehog, Smoothened, Gli-1, Cyclin D1, and Cyclin E in the TES-treated mice. In addition, RGO and its major components reduced the protein level of TGF-β but enhanced the expression of anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2. These results suggest that RGO is a potent novel therapeutic natural product for treatment of androgenic alopecia possibly through hair re-growth activity of its major components such as LA and SITOS.

Men in Midlife and the Quality of Father-Adolescent Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montemayor, Raymond; And Others

1993-01-01

Thirty-seven men with adolescent children had their testosterone levels measured and then responded to questionnaires on marriage, parent-child relationships, and midlife crises. Results indicated a significant inverse correlation between male midlife stress and the quality of father-adolescent communication. (MDM)

Critical Information at Critical Moments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fierman, Ben; Thrower, Raymond H., Jr.

2011-01-01

On a daily basis, administrators are reminded of the potential, perhaps the likelihood, of violence or natural crises on their campuses. Comprehensive studies have been conducted and point to recommendations and best practices for planning, preparing, responding to, and recovering from critical incidents. The International Association of Campus…

Entrepreneurial Leadership Practices and School Innovativeness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akmaliah, Zaidatol; Pihie, Lope; Asimiran, Soaib; Bagheri, Afsaneh

2014-01-01

Entrepreneurial leadership, as a distinctive type of leadership required for dealing with challenges and crises of current organizational settings, has increasingly been applied to improve school performance. However, there is limited research on the impact of school leaders' entrepreneurial leadership practices on school innovativeness. The main…

Space Power in Small Wars: The End of Asymmetric Advantage

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

war and rapidly deliver victory to US forces. Historian Rick Sturdevant notes: “while crises or conflicts during the latter decades of the... Qualcomm alone has already sold 300 million GPS-enabled cell phone chipsets. GARMIN International has delivered 48 million portable navigation

The Role of Stress and Negative Emotions in an Occupational Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutri, Merja; Lindeman, Marjaana

2002-01-01

Measures of occupational crisis, anger, anxiety, and depression were completed by 277 Finnish workers (53% women). Occupational crises resulted from overload, interpersonal problems, organizational changes, or threatened job loss, accompanied by trait anxiety, suppressed anger, and depressive symptoms. Female employees who experienced…

Organizational Learning and Unlearning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starbuck, William H.

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to summarize four decades of research into organizational adaptation, learning and unlearning. Design/methodology/approach: The most important contributions to this stream of research have been case studies of organizations struggling to survive serious crises. Findings: Very diverse kinds of organizations run into serious…

On the spot damage detection methodology for highway bridges during natural crises : tech transfer summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

The objective of this work was to develop a : low-cost portable damage detection tool to : assess and predict damage areas in highway : bridges. : The proposed tool was based on standard : vibration-based damage identification (VBDI) : techniques but...

Observations of a Father: My Son Has Spina Bifida.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Remmel, Carl L.

1982-01-01

The author reviews his experiences as the father of a child with spina bifida, a congenital problem in which the spine is not completely enclosed. He recounts his feelings upon first finding out about the condition and his son's subsequent surgeries and crises. (CL)

The Environment of Crises in the Nigerian Education System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nwagwu, Cordelia C.

1997-01-01

During 1960-95, unplanned and uncontrolled educational expansion in Nigeria, coupled with a population explosion, military coups, and a depressed economy, created an environment of crisis in the educational system. Problems included poor funding; inadequate facilities; corruption in admissions, certification, and examination practices; emergence…

Encouraging Civility as a Community College Leader

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elsner, Paul A., Ed.; Boggs, George R., Ed.

2006-01-01

The contributors relate examples of situations in which leaders encountered unexpected and sometimes unprecedented incivility in their role as community college leaders. The chapters present their experiences, observations, lessons, and recommendations for handling crises that may befall leaders in an academic setting. This book contains the…

78 FR 54743 - National Preparedness Month, 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-06

... again, America faces crises that test our readiness and challenge our resolve--from natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods to shootings, cyber incidents, and even acts of terrorism. While... our efforts on readying ourselves, our families, our neighborhoods, and our Nation for any crisis we...

Nurturing Young Student Mathematicians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gavin, M. Katherine; Casa, Tutita M.

2013-01-01

Developing mathematical talent in our students should be of primary consideration in education today as nations respond to the challenges of economic crises and ever-changing technological advances. This paper describes two U.S. federally funded curriculum projects, Project M[superscript 3], Mentoring Mathematical Minds, and Project M[superscript…

Organizational Learning and Crisis Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jia

2007-01-01

The impact of crises on organizations has been stronger than ever. This article explores the role of organizational learning in crisis management, an area that has received little attention from HRD community. Recognizing the dynamics and interconnectedness of crisis management, organizational learning, and organizational change, the article…

Leading Schools During Crisis: What School Administrators Must Know

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pepper, Matthew J.; London, Tim D.; Dishman, Mike L.; Lewis, Jessica L.

2010-01-01

School leadership is synonymous with challenge. However, some school leaders face true crises--situations threatening the continuing existence of their school. "Leading Schools During Crisis" analyzes leadership and behaviors of principals in these extraordinary circumstances. A simultaneously scholarly and practice-oriented book,…

Infertility: Towards an Awareness of a Need among Family Life Practitioners.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Nancy L.; Christopher, F. Scott

1984-01-01

Discusses emotional problems related to infertility investigation and treatment. Reviews causes and treatment of infertility, coping patterns, and the role of counselors and family life educators in easing the crises of infertility and facilitating successful resolution of associated emotional problems. (JAC)

Multimedia Lead Exposure Modeling, and Water Monitoring Perspectives

EPA Science Inventory

Drinking water and other sources for lead are the subject of public health concern following the Flint, Michigan drinking water and East Chicago, Indiana lead in soil crises. In 2015, the U.S. EPA’s National Drinking Water Advisory Council recommended establishing a “...

Cross-border Portfolio Investment Networks and Indicators for Financial Crises

PubMed Central

Joseph, Andreas C.; Joseph, Stephan E.; Chen, Guanrong

2014-01-01

Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warning indicators for financial crises are identified: First, the algebraic connectivity of the equity securities network, as a measure for structural robustness, drops close to zero already in 2005, while there is an over-representation of high-degree off-shore financial centres among the countries most-related to this observation, suggesting an investigation of such nodes with respect to the structural stability of the global financial system. Second, using a phenomenological model, the edge density of the debt securities network is found to describe, and even forecast, the proliferation of several over-the-counter-traded financial derivatives, most prominently credit default swaps, enabling one to detect potentially dangerous levels of market interdependence and systemic risk. PMID:24510060

African civil society initiatives to drive a biobanking, biosecurity and infrastructure development agenda in the wake of the West African Ebola outbreak

PubMed Central

Abayomi, Akin; Gevao, Sahr; Conton, Brian; Deblasio, Pasquale; Katz, Rebecca

2016-01-01

This paper describes the formation of a civil society consortium, spurred to action by frustration over the Ebola crises, to facilitate the development of infrastructure and frameworks including policy development to support a harmonized, African approach to health crises on the continent. The Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment Consortium, or GET, is an important example of how African academics, scientists, clinicians and civil society have come together to initiate policy research, multilevel advocacy and implementation of initiatives aimed at building African capacity for timely and effective mitigations strategies against emerging infectious and neglected pathogens, with a focus on biobanking and biosecurity. The consortium has been able to establish it self as a leading voice, drawing attention to scientific infrastructure gaps, the importance of cultural sensitivities, and the power of community engagement. The GET consortium demonstrates how civil society can work together, encourage government engagement and strengthen national and regional efforts to build capacity. PMID:28154625

An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

2009-07-01

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

Unraveling hidden order in the dynamics of developed and emerging markets.

PubMed

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

The characterization of asset price returns is an important subject in modern finance. Traditionally, the dynamics of stock returns are assumed to lack any temporal order. Here we present an analysis of the autocovariance of stock market indices and unravel temporal order in several major stock markets. We also demonstrate a fundamental difference between developed and emerging markets in the past decade - emerging markets are marked by positive order in contrast to developed markets whose dynamics are marked by weakly negative order. In addition, the reaction to financial crises was found to be reversed among developed and emerging markets, presenting large positive/negative autocovariance spikes following the onset of these crises. Notably, the Chinese market shows neutral or no order while being regarded as an emerging market. These findings show that despite the coupling between international markets and global trading, major differences exist between different markets, and demonstrate that the autocovariance of markets is correlated with their stability, as well as with their state of development.

Unraveling Hidden Order in the Dynamics of Developed and Emerging Markets

PubMed Central

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2014-01-01

The characterization of asset price returns is an important subject in modern finance. Traditionally, the dynamics of stock returns are assumed to lack any temporal order. Here we present an analysis of the autocovariance of stock market indices and unravel temporal order in several major stock markets. We also demonstrate a fundamental difference between developed and emerging markets in the past decade - emerging markets are marked by positive order in contrast to developed markets whose dynamics are marked by weakly negative order. In addition, the reaction to financial crises was found to be reversed among developed and emerging markets, presenting large positive/negative autocovariance spikes following the onset of these crises. Notably, the Chinese market shows neutral or no order while being regarded as an emerging market. These findings show that despite the coupling between international markets and global trading, major differences exist between different markets, and demonstrate that the autocovariance of markets is correlated with their stability, as well as with their state of development. PMID:25383630

Managing crises through organisational development: a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Lalonde, Carole

2011-04-01

This paper presents a synthesis of the guiding principles in crisis management in accordance with the four configurational imperatives (strategy, structure, leadership and environment) defined by Miller (1987) and outlines interventions in organisational development (OD) that may contribute to their achievement. The aim is to build a conceptual framework at the intersection of these two fields that could help to strengthen the resilient capabilities of individuals, organisations and communities to face crises. This incursion into the field of OD--to generate more efficient configurations of practices in crisis management--seems particularly fruitful considering the system-wide application of OD, based on open-systems theory (Burke, 2008). Various interventions proposed by OD in terms of human processes, structural designs and human resource management, as well as strategy, may help leaders, members of organisations and civil society apply effectively, and in a more sustainable way, the crisis management guiding principles defined by researchers. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Immediate causality network of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2018-02-01

Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

Support like a walking stick: parent-buddy matching for language and culture in the NICU.

PubMed

Ardal, Frida; Sulman, Joanne; Fuller-Thomson, Esme

2011-01-01

(1) To explore the experience of non-English-speaking mothers with preterm, very low birth weight (VLBW) infants (,1,500 g); and (2) to examine mothers' assessment of a peer support program matching them with linguistically and culturally similar parent-buddies. An exploratory, qualitative analysis based on grounded theory. A convenience sample of eight mothers from four of the most prevalent non-English-speaking cultures (Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, and Tamil) in an urban Canadian-teaching hospital. Non-Anglophone mothers' experience and support in the NICU. Study mothers experienced intense role disequilibrium during the unanticipated crisis of preterm birth of a VLBW infant; situational crises owing to the high-tech NI CU environment and their infant's condition; and developmental crises with feelings of loss, guilt, helplessness, and anxiety. Language barriers compounded the difficulties. Parent-buddies helped non-English-speaking mothers mobilize their strengths. Culture and language are important determinants of service satisfaction for non-English-speaking mothers. Linguistically congruent parent-to-parent matching increases access to service.

"No God and no Norway": collective resource loss among members of Tamil NGO's in Norway during and after the last phase of the civil war in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Studies on the mental health of refugees have tended to focus upon the impact of traumatic experiences in the country of origin, and acculturation processes in exile. The effects of crises in the country of origin on refugees living in exile have been little studied. This article examines how the final stages of the civil war in Sri Lanka in 2009 influenced members of pro-LTTE Tamil NGO's in Norway. Method Ethnographic fieldwork methods were employed within Tamil NGO's in the two largest cities in Norway between November 2008 and June 2011. Results The findings suggest that collective resources became severely drained as a result of the crisis, severely disrupting the fabric of social life. Public support from the majority community remained scarce throughout the crisis. Conclusions The study suggests that there is a need for public support to exile groups indirectly affected by man-made crises in their country of origin. PMID:21849029

Carbon dioxide capture strategies from flue gas using microalgae: a review.

PubMed

Thomas, Daniya M; Mechery, Jerry; Paulose, Sylas V

2016-09-01

Global warming and pollution are the twin crises experienced globally. Biological offset of these crises are gaining importance because of its zero waste production and the ability of the organisms to thrive under extreme or polluted condition. In this context, this review highlights the recent developments in carbon dioxide (CO2) capture from flue gas using microalgae and finding the best microalgal remediation strategy through contrast and comparison of different strategies. Different flue gas microalgal remediation strategies discussed are as follows: (i) Flue gas to CO2 gas segregation using adsorbents for microalgal mitigation, (ii) CO2 separation from flue gas using absorbents and later regeneration for microalgal mitigation, (iii) Flue gas to liquid conversion for direct microalgal mitigation, and (iv) direct flue gas mitigation using microalgae. This work also studies the economic feasibility of microalgal production. The study discloses that the direct convening of flue gas with high carbon dioxide content, into microalgal system is cost-effective.

African civil society initiatives to drive a biobanking, biosecurity and infrastructure development agenda in the wake of the West African Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Abayomi, Akin; Gevao, Sahr; Conton, Brian; Deblasio, Pasquale; Katz, Rebecca

2016-01-01

This paper describes the formation of a civil society consortium, spurred to action by frustration over the Ebola crises, to facilitate the development of infrastructure and frameworks including policy development to support a harmonized, African approach to health crises on the continent. The Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment Consortium, or GET, is an important example of how African academics, scientists, clinicians and civil society have come together to initiate policy research, multilevel advocacy and implementation of initiatives aimed at building African capacity for timely and effective mitigations strategies against emerging infectious and neglected pathogens, with a focus on biobanking and biosecurity. The consortium has been able to establish it self as a leading voice, drawing attention to scientific infrastructure gaps, the importance of cultural sensitivities, and the power of community engagement. The GET consortium demonstrates how civil society can work together, encourage government engagement and strengthen national and regional efforts to build capacity.

The scientific management of volcanic crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, Warner; Newhall, Christopher; Woo, Gordon

2012-12-01

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.

State and group dynamics of world stock market by principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Jae Woo

2016-05-01

We study the dynamic interactions and structural changes by a principal component analysis (PCA) to cross-correlation coefficients of global financial indices in the years 1998-2012. The variances explained by the first PC increase with time and show a drastic change during the crisis. A sharp change in PC coefficient implies a transition of market state, a situation which occurs frequently in the American and Asian indices. However, the European indices remain stable over time. Using the first two PC coefficients, we identify indices that are similar and more strongly correlated than the others. We observe that the European indices form a robust group over the observation period. The dynamics of the individual indices within the group increase in similarity with time, and the dynamics of indices are more similar during the crises. Furthermore, the group formation of indices changes position in two-dimensional spaces due to crises. Finally, after a financial crisis, the difference of PCs between the European and American indices narrows.

How sex- and age-disaggregated data and gender and generational analyses can improve humanitarian response.

PubMed

Mazurana, Dyan; Benelli, Prisca; Walker, Peter

2013-07-01

Humanitarian aid remains largely driven by anecdote rather than by evidence. The contemporary humanitarian system has significant weaknesses with regard to data collection, analysis, and action at all stages of response to crises involving armed conflict or natural disaster. This paper argues that humanitarian actors can best determine and respond to vulnerabilities and needs if they use sex- and age-disaggregated data (SADD) and gender and generational analyses to help shape their assessments of crises-affected populations. Through case studies, the paper shows how gaps in information on sex and age limit the effectiveness of humanitarian response in all phases of a crisis. The case studies serve to show how proper collection, use, and analysis of SADD enable operational agencies to deliver assistance more effectively and efficiently. The evidence suggests that the employment of SADD and gender and generational analyses assists in saving lives and livelihoods in a crisis. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Thinking ahead about reproductive health: contingency planning and emergency preparedness in crisis situations (Iraq and West Africa).

PubMed

DeLargy, Pamela; Alakbarov, Ramiz

2004-09-01

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) coordinated efforts to integrate RH into contingency planning for the 2003 Iraq crisis and the 2003 regional response for displaced populations in West Africa. Using UNFPA's network of country offices in the Middle East, staff developed logistics plans, conducted workshops and pre-positioned RH supplies. Though refugee movements did not occur, the contingency planning enhanced the response capacity of UNFPA offices and made it possible to rapidly provide assistance inside Iraq. In West Africa, multi-country workshops and follow-up resulted in country-level and regional action plans useful during the renewed crises of 2003; scarce funding, however, limited their full implementation. UNFPA's experiences show that contingency planning requires committing resources for crises, some of which will not occur; new staff skills; and follow-up. Moreover, RH is considered by some to be additional to the core elements of contingency planning. RH's political sensitivity, particularly with certain donors, further complicated integrated planning.

Entropies of negative incomes, Pareto-distributed loss, and financial crises.

PubMed

Gao, Jianbo; Hu, Jing; Mao, Xiang; Zhou, Mi; Gurbaxani, Brian; Lin, Johnny

2011-01-01

Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective "spatial" and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990-2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors.

Communications Contingency Plan: Planning for Crises and Controversy. Phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treise, Deborah; Bernstein, Arla G.; Yates, Brad

1998-01-01

Interviews were conducted with a variety of Marshall Space Flight Center personnel and local media representatives in Huntsville, Alabama, in order to identify the current perceptions of these individuals regarding communication effectiveness between MSFC and the media. The purposes of the Phase One report are to (1) assess the need for a contingency plan for communicating in situations of crisis and controversy; (2) identify goals and objectives for the planning process; and (3) provide recommendations for future planning activities to achieve the goals and objectives outlined in Phase One. It is strongly recommended that MSFC personnel who are involved in communications with the media participate in a facilitated, strategic communications planning process in order to develop Phase Two of the Communications Contingency Plan (CCP). Phase Two will address (1) the categorizing, ranking and prioritizing of crises and controversies; (2) the development of action steps and implementation strategies for the CCP; and (3) the development of a monitoring and evaluation process for ongoing plan effectiveness.

Cross-border Portfolio Investment Networks and Indicators for Financial Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Andreas C.; Joseph, Stephan E.; Chen, Guanrong

2014-02-01

Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warning indicators for financial crises are identified: First, the algebraic connectivity of the equity securities network, as a measure for structural robustness, drops close to zero already in 2005, while there is an over-representation of high-degree off-shore financial centres among the countries most-related to this observation, suggesting an investigation of such nodes with respect to the structural stability of the global financial system. Second, using a phenomenological model, the edge density of the debt securities network is found to describe, and even forecast, the proliferation of several over-the-counter-traded financial derivatives, most prominently credit default swaps, enabling one to detect potentially dangerous levels of market interdependence and systemic risk.

Cross-border portfolio investment networks and indicators for financial crises.

PubMed

Joseph, Andreas C; Joseph, Stephan E; Chen, Guanrong

2014-02-10

Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warning indicators for financial crises are identified: First, the algebraic connectivity of the equity securities network, as a measure for structural robustness, drops close to zero already in 2005, while there is an over-representation of high-degree off-shore financial centres among the countries most-related to this observation, suggesting an investigation of such nodes with respect to the structural stability of the global financial system. Second, using a phenomenological model, the edge density of the debt securities network is found to describe, and even forecast, the proliferation of several over-the-counter-traded financial derivatives, most prominently credit default swaps, enabling one to detect potentially dangerous levels of market interdependence and systemic risk.

Scientific Revolutions to the nth power: n = 0, 1, 2, 3.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beichler, James

2008-04-01

Thomas Kuhn's description and characterization of scientific revolutions set the standard for interpreting and understanding these events, but his characterization introduced an anomaly. Newtonian science was at the pinnacle of its success immediately prior to the Second Scientific Revolution. From an evolutionary point-of-view, there were no crises to be solved just problems within the Newtonian paradigm, whereas the specific crises that initiated the revolution are evident from everyone's point-of-view after the revolution. This paradox is well recognized, but it seems not to be a problem and is just ignored as if it were not important or significant. Yet this discrepancy strikes at the very heart of physics and the overall progress of science. Historical conditions currently parallel the period immediately prior to the Second Scientific Revolution indicating that a new scientific revolution is approaching. When a comparison of the two periods is made, new characteristics of scientific revolutions are identified, the paradox is solved and evidence of a Zeroth Scientific Revolution emerges from the historical record.

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Its Partners’ Contributions to Global Health Security

PubMed Central

Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca E.; Angulo, Frederick J.; Craig, Allen; Pesik, Nicki; Dahl, Benjamin A.; Ijaz, Kashef; Jafari, Hamid; Martin, Rebecca

2017-01-01

To achieve compliance with the revised World Health Organization International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), countries must be able to rapidly prevent, detect, and respond to public health threats. Most nations, however, remain unprepared to manage and control complex health emergencies, whether due to natural disasters, emerging infectious disease outbreaks, or the inadvertent or intentional release of highly pathogenic organisms. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) works with countries and partners to build and strengthen global health security preparedness so they can quickly respond to public health crises. This report highlights selected CDC global health protection platform accomplishments that help mitigate global health threats and build core, cross-cutting capacity to identify and contain disease outbreaks at their source. CDC contributions support country efforts to achieve IHR 2005 compliance, contribute to the international framework for countering infectious disease crises, and enhance health security for Americans and populations around the world. PMID:29155656

Randomized Trial of Hypnosis as a Pain and Symptom Management Strategy in Adults with Sickle Cell Disease

PubMed Central

Wallen, Gwenyth R; Middleton, Kimberly R; Ames, Nancy; Brooks, Alyssa T; Handel, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is the most common genetic disease in African-Americans, characterized by recurrent painful vaso-occlusive crises. Medical therapies for controlling or preventing crises are limited because of efficacy and/or toxicity. This is a randomized, controlled, single-crossover protocol of hypnosis for managing pain in SCD patients. Participants receive hypnosis from a trained hypnosis therapist followed by six weeks of self-hypnosis using digital media. Those in the control arm receive SCD education followed by a six-week waiting period before crossing over to the hypnosis arm of the study. Outcome measures include assessments of pain (frequency, intensity and quality), anxiety, coping strategies, sleep, depression, and health care utilization. To date, there are no published randomized, controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of hypnosis on SCD pain modulation in adults. Self-hypnosis for pain management may be helpful in modulating chronic pain, improving sleep quality, and decreasing use of narcotics in patients with SCD. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00393250 PMID:25520557

Americans Heading for the Cities, Once Again.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beale, Calvin L.

1988-01-01

Examines increasing rural to urban migration as caused by farming crises, employment cutbacks, slow rural population growth in 1980s, and slow rural recovery from recession. The migration was especially heavy during 1983-1986. Cites indicators showing possible future reversal. Includes charts, graphs, and maps. (Author/TES)

Conservation Photography as Environmental Education: Focus on the Pedagogues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farnsworth, Bruce Evan

2011-01-01

This research examines the genre of conservation photography as a legitimate and highly relevant pedagogical enterprise well poised amid the proliferation of digital media and environmental crises. This small-scale qualitative study closely follows the work of four professional photojournalists. This research asserts that the professional…

Insomnia and Psychosocial Crisis: Two Studies of Erikson's Developmental Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, Karen Dineen; And Others

1983-01-01

Examines the role of internal stressors in the development of sleep disturbances in two studies of 122 older adults and 66 college students. Results confirmed Erikson's (1959) developmental theory. Failure to resolve the psychosocial crises of old age and adolescence were related to insomnia. (WAS)

Internationalization for an Uncertain Future: Tensions, Paradoxes, and Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Sharon

2017-01-01

As higher education is increasingly called upon to play a central role in addressing the challenges and crises of today's complex, uncertain, and volatile world, internationalization efforts are intensifying. Emphasizing higher education as a space for critically-informed, socially accountable, and open-ended conversations about alternative…

Emotional First Aid: Crisis Development and Systems of Intervention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenbluh, Edward S.; And Others

This instructional manual takes a developmental approach toward understanding the psychological, social and behavioral dynamics of human crisis. The manual describes the behavior patterns characterizing various psychological and physical crises, and provides background information and methods of crisis intervention with which to manage each. In…

Image Repair Discourse and Crisis Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benoit, William L.

1997-01-01

Describes the theory of image restoration discourse as an approach for understanding corporate crisis situations. States this theory can be used by practitioners to help design messages during crises and by critics or educators to critically evaluate such messages. Describes and illustrates the theory's basic concepts. Offers suggestions for…

Found Poems, Member Checking and Crises of Representation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reilly, Rosemary C.

2013-01-01

In order to establish veracity, qualitative researchers frequently rely on member checks to insure credibility by giving participants opportunities to correct errors, challenge interpretations and assess results; however, member checks are not without drawbacks. This paper describes an innovative approach to conducting member checks. Six members…

Crisis Management in the Schools: New Aspects of Professionalism.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shrestha, Bijaya K.

1990-01-01

Effective crisis management as a function of the chief school administrator's role is examined. A new professionalism and recognition of districts and schools as complex organizations facilitate administrators' ability to handle this enlarged responsibility. Chapter 1 identifies forms of school crises and offers explanations, drawing upon…

Flexible Design and Manufacturing Systems for Automotive Components and Sheet Metal Parts

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

sometimes shocking discoveries you will make, discoveries that can help you avoid potential crises down the road if you take the necessary steps now...ISSUE Guest Lecture John Swanson, VP Qualcomm 10-Feb Fast, Flexible, Lilly, US Robotics, Economist, Upton & Agile Manufacturing Readings

SSC San Diego Command History Calendar Year 2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

firehelp/ to provide a means to offer assistance to co-workers and others in need. During the crises , the Center made positive contact with all...Rescue Bureau to locate fire victims in unincorporated areas • assisting evacuees at Qualcomm Stadium • manning Community Access Phone Service lines

The Vulnerable Age: A Serendipitous Finding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Inbar, Michael; Adler, Chaim

1976-01-01

Six to 11 year old children may be generally more vulnerable to crises in their environment than their younger or older siblings. Based upon a cross cultural study of Moroccan and Rumanian immigrants to Israel, the authors suggest some theoretical considerations and note some practical implications. (Author/DB)

76 FR 2198 - Agency Information Collection: Emergency Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-12

...(j)(1)). An emergency focus group clearance is being requested in regards to the Veterans' Suicide... are experiencing mental health crises and provide confident and trustworthy counseling. To be... groups with Veterans and their families, community organizations, and other important and influential...

Rural Development: Goals, Dynamics, Crises and Recommendations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jehlik, Paul J.

The continuing transition of rural development from its old to present day form is discussed, treating varied perceptions of its goals and the continuing resolution of approaches through legislation and appropriations. Some of the goals are community development, human resources development, natural resources preservation, and a more equitable…

Preparing Children for Situational Crises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiszinckas, Evelyn

1982-01-01

Provides guidelines for parents to help children to deal with anxiety and stress resulting from major changes or new situations in the child's life. Advocates truth, repetition and pacing, proper timing, dialog, fostering familiarity, honest expression of feelings, mobilization of anxiety, encouraging play, and support as strategies for reducing…

Sabbaticals: Benefitting Faculty, the Institution, and Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Academic Senate for California Community Colleges, 2007

2007-01-01

Sabbatical leave has a long and distinguished history in academe, both at universities and community colleges. By virtue of its traditional benefit to professors, institutions, and students, sabbaticals may appropriately be considered as a "right" by the professoriate. Even so, during statewide budgetary crises, sabbatical leave was…

Guidelines for Transitional Education Plan Preparation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lattanzio, Raphaëlle Martinez; Bethke, Lynne; Haas, Anna; Perrier, Janne Kjaersgaard; De Grauwe, Anton; Sigsgaard, Morten; Bird, Lyndsay; Coury, Diane; Gay, Dorian; MacEwan, Leonora; Seeger, Anna

2016-01-01

The "Guidelines for the Transitional Education Plan Preparation" are the result of an extensive consultation process and the product of fruitful guidance and contributions from key partners active in the field of education in emergencies and protracted crises. The new global education agenda 2030 places strong emphasis on countries…

Resource Sharing in Times of Retrenchment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sloan, Bernard G.

1992-01-01

Discusses the impact of decreases in revenues on the resource-sharing activities of ILLINET Online and the Illinois Library Computer Systems Organization (ILCSO). Strategies for successfully coping with fiscal crises are suggested, including reducing levels of service and initiating user fees for interlibrary loans and faxing photocopied journal…

Achieving Their Potential

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prouty, Sally T.

2009-01-01

Seventy-five years ago, Franklin D. Roosevelt took two crises--a decayed environment and wide unemployment--and combined them to form a single success: the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). In the CCC three million young unemployed men dramatically improved the nation's infrastructure. The CCC gave young Americans living in poverty hope. This…

Battling Budgets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Stacey

2006-01-01

Higher-education institutions are facing financial crises in their capital programs. Constant increases in the cost of oil, combined with material shortages in copper, steel and gypsum products, have contributed to an inexorable rise in the cost of construction. At the same time, capital budgets are decreasing. The result is that the education…