Epilepsy, excess deaths and years of life lost from external causes.

PubMed

Nevalainen, Olli; Simola, Mikko; Ansakorpi, Hanna; Raitanen, Jani; Artama, Miia; Isojärvi, Jouko; Auvinen, Anssi

2016-05-01

We systematically quantified excess mortality in epilepsy patients by cause of death using the population-attributable fraction and epilepsy-attributable years of potential life lost (YPLL) by age 75 years at ages 15 and over. We updated and undertook a re-review of mortality studies from our previous systematic review following PRISMA guidelines to identify cohort studies of general epilepsy populations reporting a relative risk (RR) of death by cause relative to the background rates in the population. Studies on epilepsy prevalence were identified through published reviews. Country-specific mortality figures were obtained from the WHO World Mortality Database. We performed a pooled analysis with the DerSimonian-Laird random effects method. In countries with very high Human Development Indices, epilepsy contributed to 0.5-1.1 % of all deaths in the total population. Among external causes, suicides (RR 2.9, 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.8; I(2) 52 %) were the major contributor to YPLL, corresponding to 6.7 % and 4.2 % of excess YPLL due to epilepsy in the United States (US) and in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2010, with 541 (346-792) and 44 (28-65) excess suicide cases, respectively. Fatal accidental falls were more common, with 813 (610-1064) and 95 (71-125) excess deaths in the US and in the UK, but these caused only 2.0 % of excess YPLL as they occurred in older age groups. Suicides were the most important external cause of death in epilepsy patients in terms of excess YPLL, whereas other external causes were either more common in older ages or caused less excess deaths.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change.

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-11-01

Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991-2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080-2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206-607 excess hospital admissions, US$26-$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299-3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080-2099 than in 1991-2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial.

Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010.

PubMed

Roglic, Gojka; Unwin, Nigel

2010-01-01

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contribution of excessive alcohol consumption to deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

PubMed

Stahre, Mandy; Roeber, Jim; Kanny, Dafna; Brewer, Robert D; Zhang, Xingyou

2014-06-26

Excessive alcohol consumption is a leading cause of premature mortality in the United States. The objectives of this study were to update national estimates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States, calculate age-adjusted rates of AAD and YPLL in states, assess the contribution of AAD and YPLL to total deaths and YPLL among working-age adults, and estimate the number of deaths and YPLL among those younger than 21 years. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application for 2006-2010 to estimate total AAD and YPLL across 54 conditions for the United States, by sex and age. AAD and YPLL rates and the proportion of total deaths that were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption among working-age adults (20-64 y) were calculated for the United States and for individual states. From 2006 through 2010, an annual average of 87,798 (27.9/100,000 population) AAD and 2.5 million (831.6/100,000) YPLL occurred in the United States. Age-adjusted state AAD rates ranged from 51.2/100,000 in New Mexico to 19.1/100,000 in New Jersey. Among working-age adults, 9.8% of all deaths in the United States during this period were attributable to excessive drinking, and 69% of all AAD involved working-age adults. Excessive drinking accounted for 1 in 10 deaths among working-age adults in the United States. AAD rates vary across states, but excessive drinking remains a leading cause of premature mortality nationwide. Strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force can help reduce excessive drinking and harms related to it.

Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-01-01

Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial. PMID:22922791

Causes of death among commercially insured multiple sclerosis patients in the United States.

PubMed

Goodin, Douglas S; Corwin, Michael; Kaufman, David; Golub, Howard; Reshef, Shoshana; Rametta, Mark J; Knappertz, Volker; Cutter, Gary; Pleimes, Dirk

2014-01-01

Information on causes of death (CODs) for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) in the United States is sparse and limited by standard categorizations of underlying and immediate CODs on death certificates. Prior research indicated that excess mortality among MS patients was largely due to greater mortality from infectious, cardiovascular, or pulmonary causes. To analyze disease categories in order to gain insight to pathways, which lead directly to death in MS patients. Commercially insured MS patients enrolled in the OptumInsight Research database between 1996 and 2009 were matched to non-MS comparators on age/residence at index year and sex. The cause most-directly leading to death from the death certificate, referred to as the "principal" COD, was determined using an algorithm to minimize the selection of either MS or cardiac/pulmonary arrest as the COD. Principal CODs were categorized into MS, cancer, cardiovascular, infectious, suicide, accidental, pulmonary, other, or unknown. Infectious, cardiovascular, and pulmonary CODs were further subcategorized. 30,402 MS patients were matched to 89,818 controls, with mortality rates of 899 and 446 deaths/100,000 person-years, respectively. Excluding MS, differences in mortality rate between MS patients and non-MS comparators were largely attributable to infections, cardiovascular causes, and pulmonary problems. Of the 95 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to infectious causes, 41 (43.2%) were due to pulmonary infections and 45 (47.4%) were attributed to sepsis. Of the 46 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) related to pulmonary causes, 27 (58.7%) were due to aspiration. No single diagnostic entity predominated for the 60 excessive deaths (per 100,000 person-years) attributable to cardiac CODs. The principal COD algorithm improved on other methods of determining COD in MS patients from death certificates. A greater awareness of the common CODs in MS patients will allow physicians to anticipate potential problems and, thereby, improve the care that they provide.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

PubMed

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

Is sprawl associated with a widening urban-suburban mortality gap?

PubMed

Fan, Yingling; Song, Yan

2009-09-01

This paper examines whether sprawl, featured by low development density, segregated land uses, lack of significant centers, and poor street connectivity, contributes to a widening mortality gap between urban and suburban residents. We employ two mortality datasets, including a national cross-sectional dataset examining the impact of metropolitan-level sprawl on urban-suburban mortality gaps and a longitudinal dataset from Portland examining changes in urban-suburban mortality gaps over time. The national and Portland studies provide the only evidence to date that (1) across metropolitan areas, the size of urban-suburban mortality gaps varies by the extent of sprawl: in sprawling metropolitan areas, urban residents have significant excess mortality risks than suburban residents, while in compact metropolitan areas, urbanicity-related excess mortality becomes insignificant; (2) the Portland metropolitan area not only experienced net decreases in mortality rates but also a narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap since its adoption of smart growth regime in the past decade; and (3) the existence of excess mortality among urban residents in US sprawling metropolitan areas, as well as the net mortality decreases and narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap in the Portland metropolitan area, is not attributable to sociodemographic variations. These findings suggest that health threats imposed by sprawl affect urban residents disproportionately compared to suburban residents and that efforts curbing sprawl may mitigate urban-suburban health disparities.

Cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality attributed to PM2.5 in Mashhad, Iran.

PubMed

Bonyadi, Ziaeddin; Ehrampoush, Mohammad Hasan; Ghaneian, Mohammad Taghi; Mokhtari, Mehdi; Sadeghi, Abbas

2016-10-01

Poor air quality is one of the most important environmental problems in many large cities of the world, which can cause a wide range of acute and chronic health effects, including partial physiological disorders and cardiac death due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. According to the latest edition of the national standard for air quality, maximum contamination level is 15 μg/m(3) per year and 35 μg/m(3) per day. The aim of this study was to evaluate cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality attributed to PM2.5 in the city of Mashhad during 2013. To this end, the Air Q model was used to assess health impacts of PM2.5 and human exposure to it. In this model, the attributable proportion of health outcome, annual number of excess cases of mortality for all causes, and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were estimated. The results showed that the number of excess cases of mortality for all causes and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributable to PM2.5 was 32, 263, and 332 μg/m(3), respectively. Moreover, the annual average of PM2.5 in Mashhad was obtained to be 37.85 μg/m(3). This study demonstrated that a high percentage of mortality resulting from this pollutant could be due to the high average concentration of PM2.5 in the city during 2013. In this case, using the particle control methods, such as optimal use of fuel, management of air quality in urban areas, technical inspection of vehicles, faster development of public transport, and use of industrial technology can be effective in reducing air pollution in cities and turning existing situations into preferred ones.

Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

Urban, Aleš; Burkart, Katrin; Kyselý, Jan; Schuster, Christian; Plavcová, Eva; Hanzlíková, Hana; Štěpánek, Petr; Lakes, Tobia

2016-01-01

The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994–2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects. PMID:26959044

An update of cancer mortality among chrysotile asbestos miners in Balangero, northern Italy.

PubMed Central

Piolatto, G; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Peto, J

1990-01-01

The mortality experience of a cohort of chrysotile miners employed since 1946 in Balangero, northern Italy was updated to the end of 1987 giving a total of 427 deaths out of 27,010 man-years at risk. A substantial excess mortality for all causes (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 149) was found, mainly because of high rates for some alcohol related deaths (hepatic cirrhosis, accidents). For mortality from cancer, however, the number of observed deaths (82) was close to that expected (76.2). The SMR was raised for oral cancer (SMR 231 based on six deaths), cancer of the larynx (SMR 267 based on eight deaths), and pleura (SMR 667 based on two deaths), although the excess only reached statistical significance for cancer of the larynx. Rates were not increased for lung, stomach, or any other type of cancer. No consistent association was seen with duration or cumulative dust exposure (fibre-years) for oral cancer, but the greatest risks for laryngeal and pleural cancer were in the highest category of duration and degree of exposure to fibres. Although part of the excess mortality from laryngeal cancer is probably attributable to high alcohol consumption in this group of workers, the data suggest that exposure to chrysotile asbestos (or to the fibre balangeroite that accounts for 0.2-0.5% of total mass in the mine) is associated with some, however moderate, excess risk of laryngeal cancer and pleural mesothelioma. The absence of excess mortality from lung cancer in this cohort is difficult to interpret. Images PMID:2176805

An update of cancer mortality among chrysotile asbestos miners in Balangero, northern Italy.

PubMed

Piolatto, G; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Peto, J

1990-12-01

The mortality experience of a cohort of chrysotile miners employed since 1946 in Balangero, northern Italy was updated to the end of 1987 giving a total of 427 deaths out of 27,010 man-years at risk. A substantial excess mortality for all causes (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 149) was found, mainly because of high rates for some alcohol related deaths (hepatic cirrhosis, accidents). For mortality from cancer, however, the number of observed deaths (82) was close to that expected (76.2). The SMR was raised for oral cancer (SMR 231 based on six deaths), cancer of the larynx (SMR 267 based on eight deaths), and pleura (SMR 667 based on two deaths), although the excess only reached statistical significance for cancer of the larynx. Rates were not increased for lung, stomach, or any other type of cancer. No consistent association was seen with duration or cumulative dust exposure (fibre-years) for oral cancer, but the greatest risks for laryngeal and pleural cancer were in the highest category of duration and degree of exposure to fibres. Although part of the excess mortality from laryngeal cancer is probably attributable to high alcohol consumption in this group of workers, the data suggest that exposure to chrysotile asbestos (or to the fibre balangeroite that accounts for 0.2-0.5% of total mass in the mine) is associated with some, however moderate, excess risk of laryngeal cancer and pleural mesothelioma. The absence of excess mortality from lung cancer in this cohort is difficult to interpret.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L.; Egger, Matthias

2016-01-01

Background Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. Methods We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Results Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4–1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7–18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8–2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1–1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. Conclusions We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries. PMID:27706149

Cancer mortality in the British rubber industry.

PubMed

Parkes, H G; Veys, C A; Waterhouse, J A; Peters, A

1982-08-01

Although it is over 30 years since an excess of bladder cancer was first identified in British rubber workers, the fear has persisted that this hazard could still be affecting men working in the industry today. Furthermore, suspicions have also arisen that other and hitherto unsuspected excesses of cancer might be occurring. For these reasons 33 815 men, who first started work in the industry between 1 January 1946 and 31 December 1960, have been followed up to 31 December 1975 to ascertain the number of deaths attributable to malignant disease and to compare these with the expected number calculated from the published mortality rates applicable to the male population of England and Wales and Scotland. The findings confirm the absence of any excess mortality from bladder cancer among men entering the industry after 1 January 1951 (the presumed bladder carcinogens were withdrawn from production processes in July 1949), but they confirm also a statistically significant excess of both lung and stomach cancer mortality. A small excess of oesophageal cancer was also observed in both the tyre and general rubber goods manufacturing sectors. American reports of an excess of leukaemia among rubber workers receive only limited support from the present study, where a small numerical excess of deaths from leukaemia is not statistically significant. A special feature of the study is the adoption of an analytical method that permits taking into account the long latent period of induction of occupational cancer.

Cancer mortality in the British rubber industry.

PubMed Central

Parkes, H G; Veys, C A; Waterhouse, J A; Peters, A

1982-01-01

Although it is over 30 years since an excess of bladder cancer was first identified in British rubber workers, the fear has persisted that this hazard could still be affecting men working in the industry today. Furthermore, suspicions have also arisen that other and hitherto unsuspected excesses of cancer might be occurring. For these reasons 33 815 men, who first started work in the industry between 1 January 1946 and 31 December 1960, have been followed up to 31 December 1975 to ascertain the number of deaths attributable to malignant disease and to compare these with the expected number calculated from the published mortality rates applicable to the male population of England and Wales and Scotland. The findings confirm the absence of any excess mortality from bladder cancer among men entering the industry after 1 January 1951 (the presumed bladder carcinogens were withdrawn from production processes in July 1949), but they confirm also a statistically significant excess of both lung and stomach cancer mortality. A small excess of oesophageal cancer was also observed in both the tyre and general rubber goods manufacturing sectors. American reports of an excess of leukaemia among rubber workers receive only limited support from the present study, where a small numerical excess of deaths from leukaemia is not statistically significant. A special feature of the study is the adoption of an analytical method that permits taking into account the long latent period of induction of occupational cancer. PMID:7093147

Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Leppold, Claire; Gilmour, Stuart; Ochi, Sae; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Yamamoto, Kana; Inoue, Manami; Kato, Shigeaki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kami, Masahiro

2017-10-01

Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimating influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in Western Kenya using health and demographic surveillance system data, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Emukule, Gideon O; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Chaves, Sandra S; Mott, Joshua A; Tempia, Stefano; Bigogo, Godfrey; Nyawanda, Bryan; Nyaguara, Amek; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; van der Velden, Koos; Paget, John W

2017-01-01

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa. We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths. Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among <5 years. Using the rate-difference method, the excess mortality rate for influenza and RSV was 44.8 (95% CI 36.8-54.4) and 19.7 (95% CI 14.7-26.5) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for all-cause deaths; and 9.6 (95% CI 6.3-14.7) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.9-11.0) per 100,000 PY, respectively, for respiratory deaths. Our study shows a substantial excess mortality associated with influenza and RSV in Western Kenya, especially among children <5 years and older persons with TB, supporting recommendations for influenza vaccination and efforts to develop RSV vaccines.

Ventilator-associated pneumonia in neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Foglia, Elizabeth; Meier, Mary Dawn; Elward, Alexis

2007-07-01

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the second most common hospital-acquired infection among pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Empiric therapy for VAP accounts for approximately 50% of antibiotic use in pediatric ICUs. VAP is associated with an excess of 3 days of mechanical ventilation among pediatric cardiothoracic surgery patients. The attributable mortality and excess length of ICU stay for patients with VAP have not been defined in matched case control studies. VAP is associated with an estimated $30,000 in attributable cost. Surveillance for VAP is complex and usually performed using clinical definitions established by the CDC. Invasive testing via bronchoalveolar lavage increases the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnosis. The pathogenesis in children is poorly understood, but several prospective cohort studies suggest that aspiration and immunodeficiency are risk factors. Educational interventions and efforts to improve adherence to hand hygiene for children have been associated with decreased VAP rates. Studies of antibiotic cycling in pediatric patients have not consistently shown this measure to prevent colonization with multidrug-resistant gram-negative rods. More consistent and precise approaches to the diagnosis of pediatric VAP are needed to better define the attributable morbidity and mortality, pathophysiology, and appropriate interventions to prevent this disease.

The Health Impact of Resolving Racial Disparities: An Analysis of US Mortality Data

PubMed Central

Woolf, Steven H.; Johnson, Robert E.; Fryer, George E.; Rust, George; Satcher, David

2004-01-01

The US health system spends far more on the “technology” of care (e.g., drugs, devices) than on achieving equity in its delivery. For 1991 to 2000, we contrasted the number of lives saved by medical advances with the number of deaths attributable to excess mortality among African Americans. Medical advances averted 176 633 deaths, but equalizing the mortality rates of Whites and African Americans would have averted 886202 deaths. Achieving equity may do more for health than perfecting the technology of care. PMID:15569956

The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

PubMed Central

Ho, Jessica Y.; Elo, Irma T.

2012-01-01

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups. PMID:23086667

State downsizing as a determinant of infant mortality and achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4.

PubMed

Palma-Solís, Marco Antonio; Alvarez-Dardet Díaz, Carlos; Franco-Giraldo, Alvaro; Hernández-Aguado, Ildefonso; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the worldwide effect of state downsizing policies on achievement of U.N. Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) on infant mortality rates. In an ecological retrospective cohort study of 161 countries, from 1978 to 2002, the authors analyzed changes in government consumption (GC) as determining exposure to achievement of MDG4. Descriptive methods and a multiple logistic regression were applied to adjust for changes in gross domestic product, level of democracy, and income inequality. Excess infant mortality in the exposed countries, attributable to reductions in GC, was estimated. Fifty countries were found to have reduced GC, and 111 had increased GC. The gap in infant mortality rate between these groups of countries doubled in the study period. Non-achievement of MDG4 was associated with reductions in GC and increases in income inequality. The excess infant mortality attributable to GC reductions in the exposed countries from 1990 to 2002 was 4,473,348 deaths. The probability of achieving MDG4 seems to be seriously compromised for many countries because of reduced public sector expenditure during the last 25 years of the 20th century, in response to World Bank/International Monetary Fund Washington Consensus policies. This seeming contradiction between the goals of different U.N. branches may be undermining achievement of MDG4 and should be taken into account when developing future global governance policy.

Tackling the mortality from long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution in megacities: Lessons from the Greater Cairo case study.

PubMed

Wheida, Ali; Nasser, Amira; El Nazer, Mostafa; Borbon, Agnes; Abo El Ata, Gehad A; Abdel Wahab, Magdy; Alfaro, Stephane C

2018-01-01

The poor outdoor air quality in megacities of the developing world and its impact on health is a matter of concern for both the local populations and the decision-makers. The objective of this work is to quantify the mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO 2 , and O 3 in Greater Cairo (Egypt). We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the three pollutants concentrations measured at 18 stations of the area. Then, we apply the method recommended by the WHO to estimate the excess mortality. In this assessment, three different shapes (log-linear, linear, and log-log) of the concentration-response functions (CRF) are used. With PM2.5 concentrations varying from 50 to more than 100µg/m 3 in the different sectors of the megacity, the spatial variability of this pollutant is found to be one important cause of uncertainty on the excess mortality associated with it. Also important is the choice of the CRF. With the average (75µg/m 3 ) PM2.5 concentration and the most favorable log-log shape of the CRF, 11% (CI, 9-14%) of the non-accidental mortality in the population older than 30 years can still be attributed to PM2.5, which corresponds to 12520 (CI, 10240-15930) yearly premature deaths. Should the Egyptian legal 70µg/m 3 PM10 limit (corresponding to approximately 37.5µg/m 3 for PM2.5) be met, this number would be reduced to 7970, meaning that 4550 premature deaths could be avoided each year. Except around some industrial or traffic hot spots, NO 2 concentration is found to be below the 40µg/m 3 air quality guideline of the WHO. However, the average concentration (34µg/m 3 ) of this gas exceeds the stricter 10µg/m 3 recommendation of the HRAPIE project and it is thus estimated that from 7850 to 10470 yearly deaths can be attributed to NO 2 . Finally, with the ozone concentration measured at one station only, it is found that, depending on the choice of the CRF, between 2.4% and 8.8% of the mortality due to respiratory diseases can be attributed to this gas. In Greater Cairo, PM2.5 and NO 2 constitute major health risks. The best estimate is that in the population older than 30 years, 11% and 8% of the non-accidental mortality can be attributed to these two pollutants, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

PubMed Central

Hagopian, Amy; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Takaro, Tim K.; Esa Al Shatari, Sahar A.; Rajaratnam, Julie; Becker, Stan; Levin-Rector, Alison; Galway, Lindsay; Hadi Al-Yasseri, Berq J.; Weiss, William M.; Murray, Christopher J.; Burnham, Gilbert

2013-01-01

Background Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Methods and Findings We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005–2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. Conclusions Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24143140

Mortality in Iraq associated with the 2003-2011 war and occupation: findings from a national cluster sample survey by the university collaborative Iraq Mortality Study.

PubMed

Hagopian, Amy; Flaxman, Abraham D; Takaro, Tim K; Esa Al Shatari, Sahar A; Rajaratnam, Julie; Becker, Stan; Levin-Rector, Alison; Galway, Lindsay; Hadi Al-Yasseri, Berq J; Weiss, William M; Murray, Christopher J; Burnham, Gilbert

2013-10-01

Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74-5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000-751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005-2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

The Adoption of Smoking and Its Effect on the Mortality Gender Gap in Netherlands: A Historical Perspective

PubMed Central

Janssen, Fanny; van Poppel, Frans

2015-01-01

We examine in depth the effect of differences in the smoking adoption patterns of men and women on the mortality gender gap in Netherlands, employing a historical perspective. Using an indirect estimation technique based on observed lung cancer mortality from 1931 to 2012, we estimated lifetime smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality. We decomposed the sex difference in life expectancy at birth into smoking-related and nonsmoking-related overall and cause-specific mortality. The smoking epidemic in Netherlands, which started among men born around 1850 and among women from birth cohort 1900 onwards, contributed substantially to the increasing sex difference in life expectancy at birth from 1931 (1.3 years) to 1982 (6.7 years), the subsequent decline to 3.7 years in 2012, and the high excess mortality among Dutch men born between 1895 and 1910. Smoking-related cancer mortality contributed most to the increase in the sex difference, whereas smoking-related cardiovascular disease mortality was mainly responsible for the decline from 1983 onwards. Examining nonsmoking-related (cause-specific) mortality shed new light on the mortality gender gap and revealed the important role of smoking-related cancers, the continuation of excess mortality among women aged 40–50, and a smaller role of biological factors in the sex difference than was previously estimated. PMID:26273613

Mortality study among workers producing ferroalloys and stainless steel in France.

PubMed Central

Moulin, J J; Portefaix, P; Wild, P; Mur, J M; Smagghe, G; Mantout, B

1990-01-01

A mortality study was carried out among the workers of a plant that had produced ferrochromium and stainless steel, and was still producing stainless steel, in order to determine whether exposure to chromium compounds, to nickel compounds, and to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) could result in a risk of lung cancer for the exposed workers. The cohort comprised 2269 men whose vital status were recorded between 1 January 1952 and 31 December 1982. The smoking habits of 67% of the cohort members were known from medical records. The observed numbers of deaths were compared with the expected ones based on national rates with adjustment for age, sex, and calendar time. A low mortality, achieving statistical significance, was found from all causes (observed = 137, standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 0.82) and from benign respiratory diseases (observed = one, SMR = 0.15). With regard to mortality from lung cancer, a non-significant excess appeared in the whole cohort (observed = 12, SMR = 1.40). Among the exposed workers, however, a significant lung cancer excess was found (observed = 11, SMR = 2.04) that contrasted with a low SMR (0.32) in the non-exposed group. This excess is unlikely to be explained by smoking, as the tobacco consumption of these two groups was similar. No trend was observed for mortality from lung cancer either according to time since first exposure, or according to duration of exposure. A nested case-control study clearly suggested that this excess of deaths from lung cancer was attributable to former PAH exposures in the ferrochromium production workshops rather than to exposures in the stainless steel manufacturing areas. PMID:2393634

The contribution of education, social class and economic activity to the income-mortality association in alcohol-related and other mortality in Finland in 1988-2012.

PubMed

Tarkiainen, Lasse; Martikainen, Pekka; Laaksonen, Mikko

2016-03-01

First, to quantify trends in the contribution of alcohol-related mortality to mortality disparity in Finland by income quintiles. Secondly, to estimate the degree to which education, social class and economic activity explain the income-mortality association in alcohol-related and other mortality in four periods within 1988-2012. Register-based longitudinal study using an 11% random sample of Finnish residents linked to socio-economic and mortality data in 1988-2012 augmented with an 80% sample of all deaths during 1988-2007. Mortality rates and discrete time survival regression models were used to assess the income-mortality association following adjustment for covariates in 6-year periods after baseline years of 1988, 1994, 2001, and 2007. Finland. Individuals aged 35-64 years at baselines. For the four study periods for men/women, the final data set comprised, respectively, 26,360/12,825, 22,561/11,423, 20,342/11,319 and 2651/1514 deaths attributable to other causes and 7517/1217, 8199/1450, 9807/2116, 1431/318 deaths attributable to alcohol-related causes. Alcohol-related deaths were analysed with household income, education, social class and economic activity as covariates. The income disparity in mortality originated increasingly from alcohol-related causes of death, in the lowest quintile the contribution increasing from 28 to 49% among men and from 11 to 28% among women between periods 1988-93 and 2007-12. Among men, socio-economic characteristics attenuated the excess mortality during each study period in the lowest income quintile by 51-62% in alcohol-related and other causes. Among women, in the lowest quintile the attenuation was 47-76% in other causes, but there was a decreasing tendency in the proportion explained by the covariates in alcohol-related mortality. The income disparity in mortality among working-age Finns originates increasingly from alcohol-related causes of death. Roughly half the excess mortality in the lowest income quintile during 2007-12 is explained by the covariates of household income, education, social class and economic activity. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

[Mortality in the tire plant workers].

PubMed

Wilczyńska, U; Szadkowska-Stańczyk, I; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, N; Sobala, W; Strzelecka, A

2000-01-01

This paper describes a cohort study of the mortality among workers employed in one of Polish tyre plants. The scope of the study was limited to the analysis of mortality from main disease categories. Mortality from particular cancer sites will be discussed in a separate publication. The cohort comprised 17,747 workers (11,660 men and 6,087 women) employed during the years 1950-95 for at least three months in the tyre plant. As of 31 December 1995, the follow-up of the cohort was completed. A detailed analysis of mortality by causes was carried out using standardised mortality ratio (SMR) calculated by the person-years method. The general population of Poland was used as the reference. The results indicated general mortality significantly lower in the cohort (men: SMR = 72; women: SMR = 62), than in the reference population. The number of observed deaths from main disease categories was also lower than those expected. The analysis by specific causes revealed significant excess of deaths, due to hypertensive disease among men (36 deaths, SMR = 142; 95% CI: 99-197). SMRs were also calculated in sub-cohorts identified by activities performed (preparatory works: production of tyres and inner tubes; maintenance; storage; others). General mortality in sub-cohorts was similar to that in the total cohort. After analysis by causes of death, some non-significant excess mortality could be observed. It was very small or it applied only to single cases of death. Excess mortality from hypertensive disease in male maintenance workers (21 deaths, SMR = 262; 95% CI: 162-400) was the only exception. The absence of adverse health effects pronounced by significant excess mortality should be attributed to a relatively short period of exposure among the majority of the followed-up workers (over 58% of workers in the cohort employed in the plant for a period shorter than five years) and to their young age. Almost 56% of workers in the cohort were born in the 1950s or later which means that at the end of the follow-up they were not older than 45 years. In order to complete the final mortality assessment the follow-up should continue.

Premature mortality of epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from the Mortality Task Force of the International League Against Epilepsy.

PubMed

Levira, Francis; Thurman, David J; Sander, Josemir W; Hauser, W Allen; Hesdorffer, Dale C; Masanja, Honorati; Odermatt, Peter; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Newton, Charles R

2017-01-01

To determine the magnitude of risk factors and causes of premature mortality associated with epilepsy in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a systematic search of the literature reporting mortality and epilepsy in the World Bank-defined LMICs. We assessed the quality of the studies based on representativeness; ascertainment of cases, diagnosis, and mortality; and extracted data on standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and mortality rates in people with epilepsy. We examined risk factors and causes of death. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 19.8 (range 9.7-45.1) deaths per 1,000 people with epilepsy with a weighted median SMR of 2.6 (range 1.3-7.2) among higher-quality population-based studies. Clinical cohort studies yielded 7.1 (range 1.6-25.1) deaths per 1,000 people. The weighted median SMRs were 5.0 in male and 4.5 in female patients; relatively higher SMRs within studies were measured in children and adolescents, those with symptomatic epilepsies, and those reporting less adherence to treatment. The main causes of death in people with epilepsy living in LMICs include those directly attributable to epilepsy, which yield a mean proportional mortality ratio (PMR) of 27.3% (range 5-75.5%) derived from population-based studies. These direct causes comprise status epilepticus, with reported PMRs ranging from 5 to 56.6%, and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), with reported PMRs ranging from 1 to 18.9%. Important causes of mortality indirectly related to epilepsy include drowning, head injury, and burns. Epilepsy in LMICs has a significantly greater premature mortality, as in high-income countries, but in LMICs the excess mortality is more likely to be associated with causes attributable to lack of access to medical facilities such as status epilepticus, and preventable causes such as drowning, head injuries, and burns. This excess premature mortality could be substantially reduced with education about the risk of death and improved access to treatments, including AEDs. © 2016 The Authors. Epilepsia published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International League Against Epilepsy.

Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort.

PubMed

Cook, Michael B; Coburn, Sally B; Lam, Jameson R; Taylor, Philip R; Schneider, Jennifer L; Corley, Douglas A

2018-03-01

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA. Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks. There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75). Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Mortality experience of glass fibre workers.

PubMed Central

Shannon, H S; Hayes, M; Julian, J A; Muir, D C

1984-01-01

A historical prospective mortality study was conducted at an insulating wool plant in Ontario, Canada, on 2576 men who had worked for at least 90 days and were employed between 1955 and 1977. Eighty eight deaths were found in the 97.2% of men traced. Mortality was compared by the person-years method with that of the Ontario population. Measurements taken since 1977 show very low fibre concentrations. The overall standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was 78%, significantly below 100. Among plant only employees, seven deaths were attributed to lung cancer compared with 4.22 expected, a non-significant excess (SMR = 166; 95% confidence limits 67 to 342). No confirmed cases of mesothelioma were observed and no other disease was significantly increased in plant workers. PMID:6691934

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

2015-01-01

Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Jenkinson, Helen C; Skinner, Rod; Frobisher, Clare

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality. PMID:27586237

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996–2007

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–99, 2000–2003 and 2004–2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia). Methods All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson’s Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders. Results Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time. Conclusions Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth. PMID:24690471

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996-2007.

PubMed

Nolasco, Andreu; Quesada, José Antonio; Moncho, Joaquín; Melchor, Inmaculada; Pereyra-Zamora, Pamela; Tamayo-Fonseca, Nayara; Martínez-Beneito, Miguel Angel; Zurriaga, Oscar

2014-04-01

While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996-99, 2000-2003 and 2004-2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia). All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson's Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders. Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time. Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth.

[Occupational mortality in Italy during 1992, assessed through record-linkage between pension records and death certificates].

PubMed

d'Errico, A; Filippi, M; Demaria, M; Picanza, Grazia; Crialesi, Roberta; Costa, G; Campo, G; Passerini, M

2005-01-01

The creation of a surveillance system of occupational mortality in Italy is limited by the low quality of information on occupation in death certificates, since the information is often incomplete or lacking and because only the occupation at the time of death is registered. To evaluate the possible use of INPS (National Institute of Social Security) records for the purpose of surveillance of occupational mortality, in terms of feasibility of setting up a system and of validity of the results obtained. Death records of 218,510 subjects aged 18-74, deceased in the 12 months following the 1991 census, were obtained from ISTAT (Central Statistics Institute). These were combined through record-linkage with the INPS social security archives, which contain the employment records by economic sector going back to 1974, in order to assign these deaths the sector in which they had worked the longest. Mortality by specific causes was evaluated by industry by means of a proportional mortality analysis stratified by sex and occupational status, and adjusted for age, education, marital status, geographical area of birth, drawing a disability pension, employment status at the time of death and work instability. Record-linkage allowed attribution of the longest held job to 70% of the deaths recorded. Results are presented and discussed only on mortality in men due to asbestosis and silicosis, and causes of death with a substantial proportion attributable to occupation: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); cancers of the bladder, nasal cavity, larynx, lung and pleura; leukaemia and lymphoma; accidental causes. Among the economic sectors with a significant excess mortality, the following are well documented in the literature: mortality due to COPD in the coal and peat-bog sectors; due to leukaemia among farmers; due to sino-nasal tumours in wood-working and furniture production; due to cancer of the larynx, lung, and pleura in occupations where there was probable exposure to asbestos (fishing and maritime transport, non-metal mining, building industry, and naval, train and aircraft construction); due to silicosis in industries with potential exposure to crystalline silica; due to accidental causes in the building industry and farming. Other mortality excesses and deficits, especially those due to bladder and lympho-haemopoietic cancers, appear to be only partly consistent with those described by other authors. The feasibility of developing a surveillance system of occupational mortality based on the INPS source was found to be good, and, at least among males, for 75% of the deceased subjects historical information existed concerning the economic sectors registered in the INPS records. The results obtained would appear to indicate that the system is capable of highlighting risk excesses due to widespread exposure in the industries examined, regarding diseases for which there is a strong association with exposure. On the other hand, due to the inherent limits of the study's design (lack of a complete work history and of precise information on the jobs held) its use is not recommended in the surveillance of diseases with a low proportion attributable to a risk factor, or with wide exposure variability in a given sector among the various jobs.

Mortality in members of HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa and implications for antiretroviral therapy initiation: Results of analyses from a multicenter randomized trial

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The risk of HIV-1 related mortality is strongly related to CD4 count. Guidance on optimal timing for initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is still evolving, but the contribution of HIV-1 infection to excess mortality at CD4 cell counts above thresholds for HIV-1 treatment has not been fully described, especially in resource-poor settings. To compare mortality among HIV-1 infected and uninfected members of HIV-1 serodiscordant couples followed for up to 24 months, we conducted a secondary data analysis examining mortality among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples participating in a multicenter, randomized controlled trial at 14 sites in seven sub-Saharan African countries. Methods Predictors of death were examined using Cox regression and excess mortality by CD4 count and plasma HIV-1 RNA was computed using Poisson regression for correlated data. Results Among 3295 HIV serodiscordant couples, we observed 109 deaths from any cause (74 deaths among HIV-1 infected and 25 among HIV-1 uninfected persons). Among HIV-1 infected persons, the risk of death increased with lower CD4 count and higher plasma viral levels. HIV-1 infected persons had excess mortality due to medical causes of 15.2 deaths/1000 person years at CD4 counts of 250 – 349 cells/μl and 8.9 deaths at CD4 counts of 350 – 499 cells/μl. Above a CD4 count of 500 cells/μl, mortality was comparable among HIV-1 infected and uninfected persons. Conclusions Among African serodiscordant couples, there is a high rate of mortality attributable to HIV-1 infection at CD4 counts above the current threshold (200 – 350 cells/μl) for ART initiation in many African countries. These data indicate that earlier initiation of treatment is likely to provide clinical benefit if further expansion of ART access can be achieved. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00194519) PMID:23130818

Excess mortality attributable to hip-fracture: a relative survival analysis.

PubMed

Frost, Steven A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Center, Jacqueline R; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V

2013-09-01

Individuals with hip fracture are at substantially increased risk of mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate the excess mortality attributable to hip fracture in elderly men and women. The Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study was designed as a prospective epidemiologic investigation, in which more than 2000 men and women aged 60+ as of 1989 had been followed for 21 years. During the follow-up period, the incidence of atraumatic hip fractures was ascertained by X-ray reports, and mortality was ascertained by the New South Wales Birth, Death and Marriage Registry. Relative survival ratios were estimated by taking into account the age-and-sex specific expected survival in the general Australian population from 1989 to 2010. During the follow-up period 151 women and 55 men sustained a hip fracture. Death occurred in 86 (57%) women and 36 (66%) men. In women, the cumulative relative survival post hip-fracture at 1, 5 and 10 years was 0.83 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.89), 0.59 (95% CI 0.48-0.68), and 0.31 (95% CI 0.20-0.43), respectively; in men, the corresponding estimates of relative survival were: 0.63 (95% CI 0.48-0.75), 0.48 (95% CI 0.32-0.63), and 0.36 (95% CI 0.18-0.56). On average post hip-fracture women died 4 years earlier (median: 4.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1.7-7.8) and men died 5 years earlier (median = 4.8, IQR 2.4-7.0) than expected. For every six women and for every three men with hip fracture one extra death occurred above that expected in the background population. Hip fracture is associated with reduced life expectancy, with men having a greater reduction than women, even after accounting for time-related changes in background mortality in the population. These data underscore that hip fracture is an independent clinical risk factor for mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou].

PubMed

Sun, Q H; Wang, W T; Wang, Y W; Li, T T

2018-04-06

Objective: To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s) ) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results: The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95% CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95% CI: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion: The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.

Chronic diseases in the rubber industry

PubMed Central

Tyroler, H. A.; Andjelkovic, Dragana; Harris, Robert; Lednar, Wayne; McMichael, Anthony; Symons, Mike

1976-01-01

An overview is presented of epidemiologic studies of chronic diseases in the rubber industry. Analyses of the mortality experience during the period 1964-1972 of workers age 40–64 and retirees age 65–84 of two large rubber and tire manufacturing companies consistently disclosed excesses of deaths attributed to leukemia and lymphosarcoma, and for cancers of the stomach, large intestine, and prostate. The relation of site-specific malignancies to work histories and grouped occupational titles as surrogate measures of work-related exposures to possible carcinogens is described. There was no evidence of company-wide, sizable, consistent excess for the other major chronic diseases causes of death. Although a total cohort deficit in the mortality rate for lung cancer was found, there was a history of increased frequency of exposure to certain work areas among lung cancer decedents. Morbidity studies, including analysis of disability retirements, and ad hoc questionnaire and health testing surveys, disclosed excesses of chronic pulmonary diseases. There was evidence of an interactive effect in the association of work and smoking histories with pulmonary disability retirement. PMID:1026398

Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

PubMed

Stanišić Stojić, Svetlana; Stanišić, Nemanja; Stojić, Andreja

2016-07-11

To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures. These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats.

PubMed

Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; O'Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-07-01

To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms.

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socioeconomic status (SES) were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was also a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hotspots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was found to be clearly evident in this rural population. PMID:23733287

Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M

2013-05-01

A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and demographic surveillance system in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socio-economic status were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed, indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hot spots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy was found to be clearly evident in this rural population.

Insulation workers in Belfast. A further study of mortality due to asbestos exposure (1940-75).

PubMed Central

Elmes, P C; Simpson, M J

1977-01-01

A follow-up study of 162 men already working as insulators (laggers) in 1940 has been extended from 1965 to 1975. By the end of 1975 there were 40 survivors when 108 had been expected. Until 1965 there had been an overall excess of deaths; these were due to asbestosis with or without tuberculosis and to alimentary cancer, as well as to bronchial carcinoma and mesothelioma. From 1965 onwards the overall death rate among survivors is not so excessive but there is still a marked excess of deaths from bronchial cancer and mesothelioma. The continued risk of death attributable to malignancy after asbestosis had ceased to contribute directly, does not appear to be caused by any changes which occurred before 1940 in the conditions at work. PMID:911687

Second Hand Smoke Exposure and Excess Heart Disease and Lung Cancer Mortality among Hospital Staff in Crete, Greece: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Vardavas, Constantine I.; Mpouloukaki, Izolde; Linardakis, Manolis; Ntzilepi, Penelope; Tzanakis, Nikos; Kafatos, Anthony

2008-01-01

Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) is a serious threat to public health, and a significant cause of lung cancer and heart disease among non-smokers. Even though Greek hospitals have been declared smoke free since 2002, smoking is still evident. Keeping the above into account, the aim of this study was to quantify the levels of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and to estimate the attributed lifetime excess heart disease and lung cancer deaths per 1000 of the hospital staff, in a large Greek public hospital. Environmental airborne respirable suspended particles (RSP) of PM2.5 were performed and the personnpel’s excess mortality risk was estimated using risk prediction formulas. Excluding the intensive care unit and the operating theatres, all wards and clinics were polluted with environmental tobacco smoke. Mean SHS-RSP measurements ranged from 11 to 1461 μg/m3 depending on the area. Open wards averaged 84 μg/m3 and the managing wards averaged 164 μg/m3 thus giving an excess lung cancer and heart disease of 1.12 (range 0.23–1.88) and 11.2 (range 2.3–18.8) personnel in wards and 2.35 (range 0.55–12.2) and 23.5 (range 5.5–122) of the managing staff per 1000 over a 40-year lifespan, respectively. Conclusively, SHS exposure in hospitals in Greece is prevalent and taking into account the excess heart disease and lung cancer mortality risk as also the immediate adverse health effects of SHS exposure, it is clear that proper implementation and enforcement of the legislation that bans smoking in hospitals is imperative to protect the health of patients and staff alike. PMID:19139529

Estimating the cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to the European Common Agricultural Policy on dietary saturated fats

PubMed Central

O’Flaherty, Martin; Mwatsama, Modi; Birt, Christopher; Ireland, Robin; Capewell, Simon

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the burden of cardiovascular disease within 15 European Union countries (before the 2004 enlargement) as a result of excess dietary saturated fats attributable to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Methods A spreadsheet model was developed to synthesize data on population, diet, cholesterol levels and mortality rates. A conservative estimate of a reduction in saturated fat consumption of just 2.2 g was chosen, representing 1% of daily energy intake. The fall in serum cholesterol concentration was then calculated, assuming that this 1% reduction in saturated fat consumption was replaced with 0.5% monounsaturated and 0.5% polyunsaturated fats. The resulting reduction in cardiovascular and stroke deaths was then estimated, and a sensitivity analysis conducted. Findings Reducing saturated fat consumption by 1% and increasing monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat by 0.5% each would lower blood cholesterol levels by approximately 0.06 mmol/l, resulting in approximately 9800 fewer coronary heart disease deaths and 3000 fewer stroke deaths each year. Conclusion The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to CAP appears substantial. Furthermore, these calculations were conservative estimates, and the true mortality burden may be higher. The analysis contributes to the current wider debate concerning the relationship between CAP, health and chronic disease across Europe, together with recent international developments and commitments to reduce chronic diseases. The reported mortality estimates should be considered in relation to the current CAP and any future reforms. PMID:18670665

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006.

PubMed

Rastam, Samer; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Mzayek, Fawaz; Fouad, Fouad M; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

2012-09-09

Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Evacuation effect on excess mortality among institutionalized elderly after the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

PubMed

Yasumura, Seiji

2014-01-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake hit Fukushima Prefecture on March 11, 2011, just over 3 years ago and it continues to affect our lives. In Fukushima, many people are confirmed dead or still missing due to the earthquake and/or tsunami. Additional "disaster-related deaths" have been attributed to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. Mortality among the institutionalized elderly rates after the NPP accident were exceptionally high during the first 3 months, and persisted at a lower level for 9 months, in comparison with similar periods before the accident. This study demonstrates the great impact of evacuation on mortality of institutionalized elderly, excluding inpatients. We need to pay special attention to evacuation of the elderly, regardless of whether voluntary or forced.

Mortality experience of haematite mine workers in China.

PubMed Central

Chen, S Y; Hayes, R B; Liang, S R; Li, Q G; Stewart, P A; Blair, A

1990-01-01

The mortality risk of iron ore (haematite) miners between 1970 and 1982 was investigated in a retrospective cohort study of workers from two mines, Longyan and Taochong, in China. The cohort was limited to men and consisted of 5406 underground miners and 1038 unexposed surface workers. Among the 490 underground miners who died, 205 (42%) died of silicosis and silicotuberculosis and 98 (20%) of cancer, including 29 cases (5.9%) of lung cancer. The study found an excess risk of non-malignant respiratory disease and of lung cancer among haematite miners. The standardised mortality ratio for lung cancer compared with nationwide male population rates was significantly raised (SMR = 3.7), especially for those miners who were first employed underground before mechanical ventilation and wet drilling were introduced (SMR = 4.8); with jobs involving heavy exposure to dust, radon, and radon daughters (SMR = 4.2); with a history of silicosis (SMR = 5.3); and with silicotuberculosis (SMR = 6.6). No excess risk of lung cancer was observed in unexposed workers (SMR = 1.2). Among current smokers, the risk of lung cancer increased with the level of exposure to dust. The mortality from all cancer, stomach, liver, and oesophageal cancer was not raised among underground miners. An excess risk of lung cancer among underground mine workers which could not be attributed solely to tobacco use was associated with working conditions underground, especially with exposure to dust and radon gas and with the presence of non-malignant respiratory disease. Because of an overlap of exposures to dust and radon daughters, the independent effects of these factors could not be evaluated. PMID:2328225

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment. PMID:21232096

Overall and cause-specific excess mortality in HIV-positive persons compared with the general population

PubMed Central

Alejos, Belén; Hernando, Victoria; Iribarren, Jose; Gonzalez-García, Juan; Hernando, Asuncion; Santos, Jesus; Asensi, Victor; Gomez-Berrocal, Ana; del Amo, Julia; Jarrin, Inma

2016-01-01

Abstract We aimed to estimate overall and cause-specific excess mortality of HIV-positive patients compared with the general population, and to assess the effect of risk factors. We included patients aged >19 years, recruited from January 1, 2004 to May 31, 2014 in Cohort of the Spanish Network on HIV/AIDS Research. We used generalized linear models with Poisson error structure to model excess mortality rates. In 10,340 patients, 368 deaths occurred. Excess mortality was 0.82 deaths per 100 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.11 for liver, 0.08 for non-AIDS-defining malignancies (NADMs), 0.08 for non-AIDS infections, and 0.02 for cardiovascular-related causes. Lower CD4 count and higher HIV viral load, lower education, being male, and over 50 years were predictors of overall excess mortality. Short-term (first year follow-up) overall excess hazard ratio (eHR) for subjects with AIDS at entry was 3.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.66, 5.19) and 1.37 (95% CI 0.87, 2.15) for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected; medium/long-term eHR for AIDS at entry was 0.90 (95% CI 0.58, 1.39) and 3.83 (95% CI 2.37, 6.19) for HCV coinfection. Liver excess mortality was associated with low CD4 counts and HCV coinfection. Patients aged ≥50 years and HCV-coinfected showed higher NADM excess mortality, and HCV-coinfected patients showed increased non-AIDS infections excess mortality. Overall, liver, NADM, non-AIDS infections, and cardiovascular excesses of mortality associated with being HIV-positive were found, and HCV coinfection and immunodeficiency played significant roles. Differential short and medium/long-term effects of AIDS at entry and HCV coinfection were found for overall excess mortality. PMID:27603368

[A proposal for a new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and its estimation].

PubMed

Takahashi, M; Tango, T

2001-05-01

As methods for estimating excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemic, the Serfling's cyclical regression model and the Kawai and Fukutomi model with seasonal indices have been proposed. Excess mortality under the old definition (i.e., the number of deaths actually recorded in excess of the number expected on the basis of past seasonal experience) covers the random error for that portion of variation regarded as due to chance. In addition, it disregards the range of random variation of mortality with the season. In this paper, we propose a new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and a new estimation method, considering these questions with the Kawai and Fukutomi method. The new definition of excess mortality and a novel method for its estimation were generated as follows. Factors bringing about variation in mortality in months with influenza-epidemics may be divided into two groups: 1. Influenza itself, 2. others (practically random variation). The range of variation of mortality due to the latter (normal range) can be estimated from the range for months in the absence of influenza-epidemics. Excess mortality is defined as death over the normal range. A new definition of excess mortality associated with influenza-epidemics and an estimation method are proposed. The new method considers variation in mortality in months in the absence of influenza-epidemics. Consequently, it provides reasonable estimates of excess mortality by separating the portion of random variation. Further, it is a characteristic that the proposed estimate can be used as a criterion of statistical significance test.

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China.

PubMed

Li, Ying; Ren, Ting; Kinney, Patrick L; Joyner, Andrew; Zhang, Wei

2018-05-01

Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality among hourly motor vehicle manufacturing workers.

PubMed

Delzell, Elizabeth; Brown, David A; Matthews, Robert

2003-08-01

We evaluated mortality among 198,245 motor vehicle industry workers during the period of 1973 to 1995. Workers' mortality rates were lower than expected overall (40,131 observed/43,859 expected deaths, standardized mortality ratio [SMR] = 92, CI = 91-92) and for all major cause of death categories except cancer (SMR = 100, CI = 98-102). Mortality rates were higher than expected for lung cancer overall (SMR = 110, CI = 107-113) and among employees in transmission/gear manufacturing (SMR = 121, CI = 112-130), casting operations (SMR = 122, CI = 110-135), engine manufacturing (SMR = 111, CI = 101-123), and vehicle assembly (SMR = 111, CI = 105-117); for stomach cancer in engine manufacturing (SMR = 147, CI = 110-192); and for prostate cancer in casting operations (SMR = 128, CI = 102-158). Excesses of lung cancer in transmission, vehicle assembly, and casting operations and of stomach cancer in engine manufacturing have been observed in other investigations. Further information on employees' occupational exposures and personal attributes is required to clarify the interpretation of these results.

[Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

PubMed

López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

2006-01-14

To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

Cause-Specific Mortality Trends in a Large Population-Based Cohort With Long-Standing Childhood-Onset Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Secrest, Aaron M.; Becker, Dorothy J.; Kelsey, Sheryl F.; LaPorte, Ronald E.; Orchard, Trevor J.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE Little is known concerning the primary cause(s) of mortality in type 1 diabetes responsible for the excess mortality seen in this population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Allegheny County (Pennsylvania) childhood-onset (age <18 years) type 1 diabetes registry (n = 1,075) with diagnosis from 1965 to 1979 was used to explore patterns in cause-specific mortality. Cause of death was determined by a mortality classification committee of at least three physician epidemiologists, based on the death certificate and additional records surrounding the death. RESULTS Vital status for 1,043 (97%) participants was ascertained as of 1 January 2008, revealing 279 (26.0%) deaths overall (141 females and 138 males). Within the first 10 years after diagnosis, the leading cause of death was acute diabetes complications (73.6%), while during the next 10 years, deaths were nearly evenly attributed to acute (15%), cardiovascular (22%), renal (20%), or infectious (18%) causes. After 20 years' duration, chronic diabetes complications (cardiovascular, renal, or infectious) accounted for >70% of all deaths, with cardiovascular disease as the leading cause of death (40%). Women (P < 0.05) and African Americans (P < 0.001) have significantly higher diabetes-related mortality rates than men and Caucasians, respectively. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for non–diabetes-related causes do not significantly differ from the general population (violent deaths: SMR 1.2, 95% CI 0.6–1.8; cancer: SMR 1.2, 0.5–2.0). CONCLUSIONS The excess mortality seen in type 1 diabetes is almost entirely related to diabetes and its comorbidities but varies by duration of diabetes and particularly affects women and African Americans. PMID:20739685

Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have investigated heat wave related mortality, but less attention has been given to the health effects of cold spells in the context of global warming. The 2008 cold spell in China provided a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical regions, spatial heterogeneity of the effects, stratification effect and added effects caused by sustained cold days. Methods Thirty-six study communities were selected from 15 provinces in subtropical China. Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected for each community from 2006 to 2010. A distributed lag linear non-linear model (DLNM) with a lag structure of up to 27 days was used to analyze the association between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to combine the cold effects across each community. Results The 2008 cold spell increased mortality by 43.8% (95% CI: 34.8% ~ 53.4%) compared to non-cold spell days with the highest effects in southern and central China. The effects were more pronounced for respiratory mortality (RESP) than for cardiovascular (CVD) or cerebrovascular mortality (CBD), for females more than for males, and for the elderly aged ≥75 years old more than for younger people. Overall, 148,279 excess deaths were attributable to the 2008 cold spell. The cold effect was mainly from extreme low temperatures rather than sustained cold days during this 2008 cold spell. Conclusions The 2008 cold spell increased mortality in subtropical China, which was mainly attributable to the low temperature rather than the sustained duration of the cold spell. The cold effects were spatially heterogeneous and modified by individual-specific characteristics such as gender and age. PMID:25060645

The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

PubMed

Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

2013-10-01

To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sartorius, Benn; Sartorius, Kurt

2013-01-01

Background Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere. PMID:23967209

Short-term harmful effects of unionised ammonia on natural populations of Moina micrura and Brachionus rubens in a deep waste treatment pond.

PubMed

Arauzo, M; Valladolid, M

2003-06-01

Populations of Moina micrura and Brachionus rubens in a deep waste treatment pond were exposed to the natural short-term fluctuations of unionised ammonia (90-min intervals of monitoring) that occur in the course of a day during a summer algal bloom. Under natural conditions, three replicate experiments were conducted in which water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total ammonia, unionised ammonia, phytoplankton biomass and zooplankton (number of living and dead organisms, mortality rate and instant mortality) were studied. The time-course of unionised ammonia concentration was consistent with those shown by temperature, pH, phytoplankton biomass, dissolved oxygen, Moina micrura mortality and Brachionus rubens mortality. On the other hand, temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen never exceeded the tolerance ranges described for Moina and Brachionus, which led us to attribute the cause of zooplankton mortality to unionised ammonia toxicity. Mortality rates of 63%, 27% and 34% were recorded for Moina in each replicate experiment. Brachionus was less affected, with mortalities of 7.3%, 6.2% and 6.0%. These results confirm previous field observations (Water Res. 34(14) (2000) 3666; Water Res. 37(5) (2003) 1048) that attributed a reduction in zooplankton biomass during certain periods of summer (algal blooms) to a harmful side-effect of an excessive increase in phytoplankton biomass: high photosynthetic activity during these periods of proliferation of algae gives rise to an increased pH (>/=8) and, subsequently, leads to production of unionised ammonia (toxic for aquatic organisms) from its ionised fraction.

The burden of acute respiratory infections in crisis-affected populations: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Crises due to armed conflict, forced displacement and natural disasters result in excess morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases. Historically, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) have received relatively little attention in the humanitarian sector. We performed a systematic review to generate evidence on the burden of ARI in crises, and inform prioritisation of relief interventions. We identified 36 studies published since 1980 reporting data on the burden (incidence, prevalence, proportional morbidity or mortality, case-fatality, attributable mortality rate) of ARI, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 and as diagnosed by a clinician, in populations who at the time of the study were affected by natural disasters, armed conflict, forced displacement, and nutritional emergencies. We described studies and stratified data by age group, but did not do pooled analyses due to heterogeneity in case definitions. The published evidence, mainly from refugee camps and surveillance or patient record review studies, suggests very high excess morbidity and mortality (20-35% proportional mortality) and case-fatality (up to 30-35%) due to ARI. However, ARI disease burden comparisons with non-crisis settings are difficult because of non-comparability of data. Better epidemiological studies with clearer case definitions are needed to provide the evidence base for priority setting and programme impact assessments. Humanitarian agencies should include ARI prevention and control among infants, children and adults as priority activities in crises. Improved data collection, case management and vaccine strategies will help to reduce disease burden. PMID:20181220

Lung cancer incidence attributable to residential radon exposure in Alberta in 2012

PubMed Central

Grundy, Anne; Brand, Kevin; Khandwala, Farah; Poirier, Abbey; Tamminen, Sierra; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: Radon is carcinogenic, and exposure to radon has been shown to increase the risk of lung cancer. The objective of this study was to quantify the proportion and number of lung cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 that could be attributed to residential radon exposure. Methods: We estimated the population attributable risk of lung cancer for residential radon using radon exposure data from the Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes from 2009-2011 and data on all-cause and lung cancer mortality from Statistics Canada from 2008-2012. We used cancer incidence data from the Alberta Cancer Registry for 2012 to estimate the total number of lung cancers attributable to residential radon exposure. Estimates were also stratified by sex and smoking status. Results: The mean geometric residential radon level in Alberta in 2011 was 71.0 Bq/m3 (geometric standard deviation 2.14). Overall, an estimated 16.6% (95% confidence interval 9.4%-29.8%) of lung cancers were attributable to radon exposure, corresponding to 324 excess attributable cancer cases. The estimated population attributable risk of lung cancer due to radon exposure was higher among those who had never smoked (24.8%) than among ever smokers (15.6%). However, since only about 10% of cases of lung cancer occur in nonsmokers, the estimated total number of excess cases was higher for ever smokers (274) than for never smokers (48). Interpretation: With about 17% of lung cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 attributable to residential radon exposure, exposure reduction has the potential to substantially reduce Alberta's lung cancer burden. As such, home radon testing and remediation techniques represent important cancer prevention strategies. PMID:28663187

Overall mortality among patients surviving an episode of peptic ulcer bleeding

PubMed Central

Ruigomez, A.; Rodriguez, L. A.; Hasselgren, G.; Johansson, S.; Wallander, M.

2000-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE—The authors investigated whether patients who have survived an acute episode of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) have an excess long term all cause mortality compared with the general population free of PUB.
DESIGN—Follow up study of previously identified cohort of patients with a PUB episode and a general population cohort.
SETTING—The source population included all people aged 30 to 89 years, registered with general practitioners in the United Kingdom.
PATIENTS—All patients alive one month after the PUB episode constituted the cohort of PUB patients (n=978). A control group of 5000 people was randomly sampled from the source population. The same eligibility criteria as for patients with PUB were applied to the control series. Also, controls had to be free of PUB before start date.
MAIN RESULTS—Relative risk of mortality among PUB patients was 2.1, 95%CI: 1.7, 2.6) compared with the general population. This increased mortality risk occurred mainly in the patients less than 60 years old. No difference was observed between men and women. The excess mortality was not only circumscribed to deaths attributable to recurrent gastrointestinal bleed, but also cardiovascular, cancer and other causes.
CONCLUSIONS—People who have survived an acute episode of PUB have a reduced long term survival compared with the general population.This reduction was stronger among middle age patients than in the elderly.


Keywords: cohort study; mortality; peptic ulcer; bleeding; population-based study PMID:10715746

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD. PMID:22958443

The social costs of tobacco advertising and promotions.

PubMed

Emery, S; Choi, W S; Pierce, J P

1999-01-01

Recent longitudinal evidence suggests that approximately 34% of all new tobacco experimentation occurs because of tobacco advertising and promotions. Based on this figure, in this paper we estimate the long-term impact on mortality and morbidity, as well as the economic and medical costs associated with smoking that is attributable to cigarette advertising and promotions in the United States. This study used several data sources, including the Teenage Attitudes and Practices Survey (TAPS), the 1993 and 1996 Adolescent California Tobacco Surveys (CTS), and the Food and Drug Administration's estimates of annual illness-related benefits of alternative effectiveness rates of banning tobacco advertising. Our resulting estimates are that in each year between 1988 and 1998, tobacco advertising and promotional activities generated approximately 193000 additional adult smokers who began smoking as adolescents because of advertisements and promotions. That decade of tobacco advertising and promotions will also result in approximately 46400 smoking-attributable deaths per year and 698400 years of potential life lost, which translates into costs of approximately $21.7 billion to $33.3 billion in total medical, productivity, and mortality-related costs. Even accounting for quitting behavior, each year of advertising-attributable smoking increases the number of smokers in the population. We conclude that annual costs can be expected to continue to increase if tobacco advertising and promotional activities are not effectively eliminated. If all tobacco industry advertising and promotional activities were banned for the next 25 years, nearly 60000 smoking-attributable deaths per year could be avoided, saving nearly 900000 life-years, $2.6 billion in excess medical expenses, and between $28 billion and $43 billion in mortality costs.

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo-Qi; Peto, Richard; Chen, Zheng-Ming; Boreham, Jillian; Wu, Ya-Ping; Li, Jun-Yao; Campbell, T Colin; Chen, Jun-Shi

1998-01-01

Objective To assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China. Design Smoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes. Setting 24 urban and 74 rural areas of China. Subjects One million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed. Main outcome measures Tobacco attributable mortality in middle or old age from neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease. Results Among male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase. Conclusions At current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age. Key messagesOf the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosisTobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become smallTwo thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old ageIf present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobaccoTobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns PMID:9822393

Radiogenic Risk of Malignant Neoplasms for Techa Riverside Residents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akleyev, A. V.; Krestinina, L. Y.; Preston, D. L.

As a result of releases of liquid radioactive waste into the Techa River from the Mayak PA in the 1950s, residents of the riverside villages were for decades exposed to external and internal radiation resulting from consumption of locally produced food and river water. Presented in the paper is a brief description of the radiation conditions, organization of medical follow-up of the exposed population, principles for dose estimation, epidemiological analyses of cancer mortality and incidence for residents of the Techa RIverside villages. The estimates of excess relative risk of radiation-related leukemia and solid cancer mortality and incidence obtained for membersmore » of the Techa River cohort point to a clear-cut dependence of the rates on radiation exposure. Attributive risk of cancer incidence characterizing the proportion of radiation-related cancer cases among the total cancers was comparable with that for mortality: 3.2% derived for cancer incidence and 2.5% for cancer mortality. Based on the non-CLL leukemia excess relative risk (ERR) estimates calculated using the linear dose-effect model and the nature of the cohort, it was estimated that 31 (60%) out of 49 leukemia death cases (with the exclusion of 12 cases of chronic lymphatic leukemia) can be related to a long-term radiation exposure due to the contamination of the Techa River.« less

Disparities in Cancer Incidence, Stage, and Mortality at Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program

PubMed Central

Baggett, Travis P.; Chang, Yuchiao; Porneala, Bianca C.; Bharel, Monica; Singer, Daniel E.; Rigotti, Nancy A.

2015-01-01

Introduction Homeless people have a high burden of cancer risk factors and suboptimal rates of cancer screening, but the epidemiology of cancer has not been well described in this population. We assessed cancer incidence, stage, and mortality in homeless adults relative to general population standards. Methods We cross-linked a cohort of 28,033 adults seen at Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program in 2003–2008 to Massachusetts cancer registry and vital registry records. We calculated age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs and SMRs). We examined tobacco use among incident cases and estimated smoking-attributable fractions. Trend tests were used to compare cancer stage distributions with those in Massachusetts adults. Analyses were conducted in 2012–2015. Results During 90,450 person-years of observation, there were 361 incident cancers (SIR=1.13, 95% CI=1.02, 1.25) and 168 cancer deaths (SMR=1.88, 95% CI=1.61, 2.19) among men, and 98 incident cancers (SIR=0.93, 95% CI=0.76, 1.14) and 38 cancer deaths (SMR=1.61, 95% CI=1.14, 2.20) among women. For both sexes, bronchus and lung cancer was the leading type of incident cancer and cancer death, exceeding Massachusetts estimates more than twofold. Oropharyngeal and liver cancer cases and deaths occurred in excess among men, whereas cervical cancer cases and deaths occurred in excess among women. About one third of incident cancers were smoking-attributable. Colorectal, female breast, and oropharyngeal cancers were diagnosed at more-advanced stages than in Massachusetts adults. Conclusions Efforts to reduce cancer disparities in homeless people should include addressing tobacco use and enhancing participation in evidence-based screening. PMID:26143955

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Health risk assessment of exposure to the Middle-Eastern Dust storms in the Iranian megacity of Kermanshah.

PubMed

Goudarzi, G; Daryanoosh, S M; Godini, H; Hopke, P K; Sicard, P; De Marco, A; Rad, H D; Harbizadeh, A; Jahedi, F; Mohammadi, M J; Savari, J; Sadeghi, S; Kaabi, Z; Omidi Khaniabadi, Y

2017-07-01

This study assessed the effects of particulate matter (PM), equal or less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ), from the Middle-Eastern Dust events on public health in the megacity of Kermanshah (Iran). This study used epidemiological modeling and monitored ambient air quality data to estimate the potential PM 10 impacts on public health. The AirQ2.2.3 model was used to calculate mortality and morbidity attributed to PM 10 as representative of dust events. Using Visual Basic for Applications, the programming language of Excel software, hourly PM 10 concentrations obtained from the local agency were processed to prepare input files for the AirQ2.2.3 model. Using baseline incidence, defined by the World Health Organization, the number of estimated excess cases for respiratory mortality, hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, for respiratory diseases, and for cardiovascular diseases were 37, 39, 476, and 184 persons, respectively, from 21st March, 2014 to 20th March, 2015. Furthermore, 92% of mortality and morbidity cases occurred in days with PM 10 concentrations lower than 150 μg/m 3 . The highest percentage of person-days occurred for daily concentrations range of 100-109 μg/m 3 , causing the maximum health end-points among the citizens of Kermanshah. Calculating the number of cumulative excess cases for mortality or morbidity attributed to PM 10 provides a good tool for decision and policy-makers in the field of health care to compensate their shortcomings particularly at hospital and healthcare centers for combating dust storms. To diminish these effects, several immediate actions should be managed in the governmental scale to control dust such as spreading mulch and planting new species that are compatible to arid area. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. All rights reserved.

Infant mortality in South Africa - distribution, associations and policy implications, 2007: an ecological spatial analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of infant mortality because of the impact of a range of biological and social determinants. In particular, infant mortality has increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The geographic distribution of health problems and their relationship to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention planning. The objective of this paper is to determine and map the spatial nature of infant mortality in South Africa at a sub district level in order to inform policy intervention. In particular, the paper identifies and maps high risk clusters of infant mortality, as well as examines the impact of a range of determinants on infant mortality. A Bayesian approach is used to quantify the spatial risk of infant mortality, as well as significant associations (given spatial correlation between neighbouring areas) between infant mortality and a range of determinants. The most attributable determinants in each sub-district are calculated based on a combination of prevalence and model risk factor coefficient estimates. This integrated small area approach can be adapted and applied in other high burden settings to assist intervention planning and targeting. Results Infant mortality remains high in South Africa with seemingly little reduction since previous estimates in the early 2000's. Results showed marked geographical differences in infant mortality risk between provinces as well as within provinces as well as significantly higher risk in specific sub-districts and provinces. A number of determinants were found to have a significant adverse influence on infant mortality at the sub-district level. Following multivariable adjustment increasing maternal mortality, antenatal HIV prevalence, previous sibling mortality and male infant gender remained significantly associated with increased infant mortality risk. Of these antenatal HIV sero-prevalence, previous sibling mortality and maternal mortality were found to be the most attributable respectively. Conclusions This study demonstrates the usefulness of advanced spatial analysis to both quantify excess infant mortality risk at the lowest administrative unit, as well as the use of Bayesian modelling to quantify determinant significance given spatial correlation. The "novel" integration of determinant prevalence at the sub-district and coefficient estimates to estimate attributable fractions further elucidates the "high impact" factors in particular areas and has considerable potential to be applied in other locations. The usefulness of the paper, therefore, not only suggests where to intervene geographically, but also what specific interventions policy makers should prioritize in order to reduce the infant mortality burden in specific administration areas. PMID:22093084

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

PubMed Central

Lee, Vernon J.; Yap, Jonathan; Ong, Jimmy B. S.; Chan, Kwai-Peng; Lin, Raymond T. P.; Chan, Siew Pang; Goh, Kee Tai; Leo, Yee-Sin; Chen, Mark I-Cheng

2009-01-01

Introduction Tropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions. Methods Data on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles. Results The influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988) did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953) had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate. Conclusion Influenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity. PMID:19956611

Exposure-Response Estimates for Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality Based on Data from Three Occupational Cohorts

PubMed Central

Silverman, Debra T.; Garshick, Eric; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Steenland, Kyle

2013-01-01

Background: Diesel engine exhaust (DEE) has recently been classified as a known human carcinogen. Objective: We derived a meta-exposure–response curve (ERC) for DEE and lung cancer mortality and estimated lifetime excess risks (ELRs) of lung cancer mortality based on assumed occupational and environmental exposure scenarios. Methods: We conducted a meta-regression of lung cancer mortality and cumulative exposure to elemental carbon (EC), a proxy measure of DEE, based on relative risk (RR) estimates reported by three large occupational cohort studies (including two studies of workers in the trucking industry and one study of miners). Based on the derived risk function, we calculated ELRs for several lifetime occupational and environmental exposure scenarios and also calculated the fractions of annual lung cancer deaths attributable to DEE. Results: We estimated a lnRR of 0.00098 (95% CI: 0.00055, 0.0014) for lung cancer mortality with each 1-μg/m3-year increase in cumulative EC based on a linear meta-regression model. Corresponding lnRRs for the individual studies ranged from 0.00061 to 0.0012. Estimated numbers of excess lung cancer deaths through 80 years of age for lifetime occupational exposures of 1, 10, and 25 μg/m3 EC were 17, 200, and 689 per 10,000, respectively. For lifetime environmental exposure to 0.8 μg/m3 EC, we estimated 21 excess lung cancer deaths per 10,000. Based on broad assumptions regarding past occupational and environmental exposures, we estimated that approximately 6% of annual lung cancer deaths may be due to DEE exposure. Conclusions: Combined data from three U.S. occupational cohort studies suggest that DEE at levels common in the workplace and in outdoor air appear to pose substantial excess lifetime risks of lung cancer, above the usually acceptable limits in the United States and Europe, which are generally set at 1/1,000 and 1/100,000 based on lifetime exposure for the occupational and general population, respectively. Citation: Vermeulen R, Silverman DT, Garshick E, Vlaanderen J, Portengen L, Steenland K. 2014. Exposure-response estimates for diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer mortality based on data from three occupational cohorts. Environ Health Perspect 122:172–177; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306880 PMID:24273233

A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups.

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chiehwen Ed; Mas, Francisco Soto; Miller, Jerry A.; Nkhoma, Ella T.

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation. PMID:17304971

Trends in inequalities in premature mortality: a study of 3.2 million deaths in 13 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Kulhánová, Ivana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Bopp, Matthias; Borrell, Carme; Costa, Giuseppe; Deboosere, Patrick; Esnaola, Santiago; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovacs, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Regidor, Enrique; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje A; Östergren, Olof; Lundberg, Olle

2015-03-01

Over the last decades of the 20th century, a widening of the gap in death rates between upper and lower socioeconomic groups has been reported for many European countries. For most countries, it is unknown whether this widening has continued into the first decade of the 21st century. We collected and harmonised data on mortality by educational level among men and women aged 30-74 years in all countries with available data: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England and Wales, Belgium, France, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania and Estonia. Relative inequalities in premature mortality increased in most populations in the North, West and East of Europe, but not in the South. This was mostly due to smaller proportional reductions in mortality among the lower than the higher educated, but in the case of Lithuania and Estonia, mortality rose among the lower and declined among the higher educated. Mortality among the lower educated rose in many countries for conditions linked to smoking (lung cancer, women only) and excessive alcohol consumption (liver cirrhosis and external causes). In absolute terms, however, reductions in premature mortality were larger among the lower educated in many countries, mainly due to larger absolute reductions in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer (men only). Despite rising levels of education, population-attributable fractions of lower education for mortality rose in many countries. Relative inequalities in premature mortality have continued to rise in most European countries, and since the 1990s, the contrast between the South (with smaller inequalities) and the East (with larger inequalities) has become stronger. While the population impact of these inequalities has further increased, there are also some encouraging signs of larger absolute reductions in mortality among the lower educated in many countries. Reducing inequalities in mortality critically depends upon speeding up mortality declines among the lower educated, and countering mortality increases from conditions linked to smoking and excessive alcohol consumption such as lung cancer, liver cirrhosis and external causes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Impact of loneliness and depression on mortality: results from the Longitudinal Ageing Study Amsterdam.

PubMed

Holwerda, Tjalling J; van Tilburg, Theo G; Deeg, Dorly J H; Schutter, Natasja; Van, Rien; Dekker, Jack; Stek, Max L; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Schoevers, Robert A

2016-08-01

Loneliness is highly prevalent among older people, has serious health consequences and is an important predictor of mortality. Loneliness and depression may unfavourably interact with each other over time but data on this topic are scarce. To determine whether loneliness is associated with excess mortality after 19 years of follow-up and whether the joint effect with depression confers further excess mortality. Different aspects of loneliness were measured with the De Jong Gierveld scale and depression with the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale in a cohort of 2878 people aged 55-85 with 19 years of follow-up. Excess mortality hypotheses were tested with Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analyses controlling for potential confounders. At follow-up loneliness and depression were associated with excess mortality in older men and women in bivariate analysis but not in multivariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, severe depression was associated with excess mortality in men who were lonely but not in women. Loneliness and depression are important predictors of early death in older adults. Severe depression has a strong association with excess mortality in older men who were lonely, indicating a lethal combination in this group. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Excess mortality rate associated with hepatitis C virus infection: A community-based cohort study in rural Egypt.

PubMed

Mostafa, Aya; Shimakawa, Yusuke; Medhat, Ahmed; Mikhail, Nabiel N; Chesnais, Cédric B; Arafa, Naglaa; Bakr, Iman; El Hoseiny, Mostafa; El-Daly, Mai; Esmat, Gamal; Abdel-Hamid, Mohamed; Mohamed, Mostafa K; Fontanet, Arnaud

2016-06-01

>80% of people chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) live in resource-limited countries, yet the excess mortality associated with HCV infection in these settings is poorly documented. Individuals were recruited from three villages in rural Egypt in 1997-2003 and their vital status was determined in 2008-2009. Mortality rates across the cohorts were compared according to HCV status: chronic HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA positive), cleared HCV infection (anti-HCV antibody positive and HCV RNA negative) and never infected (anti-HCV antibody negative). Data related to cause of death was collected from a death registry in one village. Among 18,111 survey participants enrolled in 1997-2003, 9.1% had chronic HCV infection, 5.5% had cleared HCV infection, and 85.4% had never been infected. After a mean time to follow-up of 8.6years, vital status was obtained for 16,282 (89.9%) participants. When compared to those who had never been infected with HCV in the same age groups, mortality rate ratios (MRR) of males with chronic HCV infection aged <35, 35-44, and 45-54years were 2.35 (95% CI 1.00-5.49), 2.87 (1.46-5.63), and 2.22 (1.29-3.81), respectively. No difference in mortality rate was seen in older males or in females. The all-cause mortality rate attributable to chronic HCV infection was 5.7% (95% CI: 1.0-10.1%), while liver-related mortality was 45.5% (11.3-66.4%). Use of a highly potent new antiviral agent to treat all villagers with positive HCV RNA may reduce all-cause mortality rate by up to 5% and hepatic mortality by up to 40% in rural Egypt. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occupational lung cancer in US women, 1984-1998.

PubMed

Robinson, Cynthia F; Sullivan, Patricia A; Li, Jia; Walker, James T

2011-02-01

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in US women, accounting for 72,130 deaths in 2006. In addition to smoking cessation, further reduction of the burden of lung cancer mortality can be made by preventing exposure to occupational lung carcinogens. Data for occupational exposures and health outcomes of US working women are limited. Population-based mortality data for 4,570,711 women who died between 1984 and 1998 in 27 US States were used to evaluate lung cancer proportionate mortality over time by the usual occupation and industry reported on death certificates. Lung cancer proportionate mortality ratios were adjusted for smoking, using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II. Analyses revealed that 194,382 white, 18,225 Black and 1,515 Hispanic women died 1984-1998 with lung cancer reported as the underlying cause of death. Following adjustment for smoking, significant excess proportionate lung cancer mortality was observed among US women working in the US manufacturing; transportation; retail trade; agriculture, forestry, and fishing; and nursing/personal care industries. Women employed in precision production, technical, managerial, professional specialty, and administrative occupations experienced some of the highest significantly excess proportionate lung cancer mortality during 1984-1998. The results of our study point to significantly elevated risks for lung cancer after adjustment for smoking among women in several occupations and industries. Because 6-17% of lung cancer in US males is attributable to known exposures to occupational carcinogens, and since synergistic interactions between cigarette smoke and other occupational lung carcinogens have been noted, it is important to continue research into the effects of occupational exposures on working men and women. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mortality in British military participants in human experimental research into chemical warfare agents at Porton Down: cohort study

PubMed Central

Brooks, C; Linsell, L; Keegan, T J; Langdon, T; Fletcher, T; Nieuwenhuijsen, M J; Maconochie, N E S; Doyle, P; Beral, V

2009-01-01

Objective To investigate any long term effects on mortality in participants in experimental research related to chemical warfare agents from 1941 to 1989. Design Historical cohort study. Data sources Archive of UK government research facility at Porton Down, UK military personnel records, and national death and cancer records. Participants 18 276 male members of the UK armed forces who had spent one or more short periods (median 4 days between first and last test) at Porton Down and a comparison group of 17 600 non-Porton Down veterans followed to 31 December 2004. Main outcome measures Mortality rate ratio of Porton Down compared with non-Porton Down veterans and standardised mortality ratio of each veteran group compared with the general population. Both ratios adjusted for age group and calendar period. Results Porton Down veterans were similar to non-Porton Down veterans in year of enlistment (median 1951) but had longer military service (median 6.2 v 5.0 years). After a median follow-up of 43 years, 40% (7306) of Porton Down and 39% (6900) of non-Porton Down veterans had died. All cause mortality was slightly greater in Porton Down veterans (rate ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.10, P<0.001), more so for deaths outside the UK (1.26, 1.09 to 1.46). Of 12 cause specific groups examined, rate ratios in Porton Down veterans were increased for deaths attributed to infectious and parasitic (1.57, 1.07 to 2.29), genitourinary (1.46, 1.04 to 2.04), circulatory (1.07, 1.01 to 1.12), and external (non-medical) (1.17, 1.00 to 1.37) causes and decreased for deaths attributed to in situ, benign, and unspecified neoplasms (0.60, 0.37 to 0.99). There was no clear relation between type of chemical exposure and cause specific mortality. The mortality in both groups of veterans was lower than that in the general population (standardised mortality ratio 0.88, 0.85 to 0.90; 0.82, 0.80 to 0.84). Conclusions Mortality was slightly higher in Porton Down than non-Porton Down veterans. With lack of information on other important factors, such as smoking or service overseas, it is not possible to attribute the small excess mortality to chemical exposures at Porton Down. PMID:19318699

Contrasting patterns of hot spell effects on morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases in the Czech Republic, 1994-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanzlíková, Hana; Plavcová, Eva; Kynčl, Jan; Kříž, Bohumír; Kyselý, Jan

2015-11-01

The study examines effects of hot spells on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic, with emphasis on differences between ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CD) and between morbidity and mortality. Daily data on CVD morbidity (hospital admissions) and mortality over 1994-2009 were obtained from national hospitalization and mortality registers and standardized to account for long-term changes as well as seasonal and weekly cycles. Hot spells were defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with average daily air temperature anomalies above the 95 % quantile during June to August. Relative deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline were evaluated. Hot spells were associated with excess mortality for all examined cardiovascular causes (CVD, IHD and CD). The increases were more pronounced for CD than IHD mortality in most population groups, mainly in males. In the younger population (0-64 years), however, significant excess mortality was observed for IHD while there was no excess mortality for CD. A short-term displacement effect was found to be much larger for mortality due to CD than IHD. Excess CVD mortality was not accompanied by increases in hospital admissions and below-expected-levels of morbidity prevailed during hot spells, particularly for IHD in the elderly. This suggests that out-of-hospital deaths represent a major part of excess CVD mortality during heat and that for in-hospital excess deaths CVD is a masked comorbid condition rather than the primary diagnosis responsible for hospitalization.

Comments received on excess deaths from restricting Medicaid funds for abortions.

PubMed

Wallenstein, S

1978-03-01

Methodological errors inherent in an article by D.B. Petitti and W. Cates (American Journal of Public Health 67:860-862, 1977) on projecting excess maternal mortality resulting from restriction of Medicaid funds for abortion are cited. It is claimed that the authors' mortality estimates are too high because they failed to correct for other early-pregnancy-related mortality risks occurring prior to a planned abortion. To calculate excess risk, the risk for Medicaid patients who abort must be subtracted from non-pregnancy-related maternal mortality rates. Analysis of gestation-age-specific nonabortion maternal mortality can be used to indicate excess maternal mortality for Medicaid recipients choosing abortion, as well as the increased number of deaths due to the postponement of abortion.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

PubMed

Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

2017-01-01

"Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

Excess morbidity and mortality in patients with craniopharyngioma: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wijnen, Mark; Olsson, Daniel S; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Hammarstrand, Casper; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; van der Lely, Aart J; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

2018-01-01

Most studies in patients with craniopharyngioma did not investigate morbidity and mortality relative to the general population nor evaluated risk factors for excess morbidity and mortality. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine excess morbidity and mortality, as well as their determinants in patients with craniopharyngioma. Hospital-based retrospective cohort study conducted between 1987 and 2014. We included 144 Dutch and 80 Swedish patients with craniopharyngioma identified by a computer-based search in the medical records (105 females (47%), 112 patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma (50%), 3153 person-years of follow-up). Excess morbidity and mortality were analysed using standardized incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs and SMRs). Risk factors were evaluated univariably by comparing SIRs and SMRs between non-overlapping subgroups. Patients with craniopharyngioma experienced excess morbidity due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (SIR: 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8-6.8) and cerebral infarction (SIR: 4.9, 95% CI: 3.1-8.0) compared to the general population. Risks for malignant neoplasms, myocardial infarctions and fractures were not increased. Patients with craniopharyngioma also had excessive total mortality (SMR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.0-3.8), and mortality due to circulatory (SMR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.5) and respiratory (SMR: 6.0, 95% CI: 2.5-14.5) diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence were identified as risk factors for excess T2DM, cerebral infarction and total mortality. Patients with craniopharyngioma are at an increased risk for T2DM, cerebral infarction, total mortality and mortality due to circulatory and respiratory diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence are important risk factors. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Surveillance of the colorectal cancer disparities among demographic subgroups: a spatial analysis.

PubMed

Hsu, Chiehwen Ed; Mas, Francisco Soto; Hickey, Jessica M; Miller, Jerry A; Lai, Dejian

2006-09-01

The literature suggests that colorectal cancer mortality in Texas is distributed inhomogeneously among specific demographic subgroups and in certain geographic regions over an extended period. To understand the extent of the demographic and geographic disparities, the present study examined colorectal cancer mortality in 15 demographic groups in Texas counties between 1990 and 2001. The Spatial Scan Statistic was used to assess the standardized mortality ratio, duration and age-adjusted rates of excess mortality, and their respective p-values for testing the null hypothesis of homogeneity of geographic and temporal distribution. The study confirmed the excess mortality in some Texas counties found in the literature, identified 13 additional excess mortality regions, and found 4 health regions with persistent excess mortality involving several population subgroups. Health disparities of colorectal cancer mortality continue to exist in Texas demographic subpopulations. Health education and intervention programs should be directed to the at-risk subpopulations in the identified regions.

Excess under-5 female mortality across India: a spatial analysis using 2011 census data.

PubMed

Guilmoto, Christophe Z; Saikia, Nandita; Tamrakar, Vandana; Bora, Jayanta Kumar

2018-06-01

Excess female mortality causes half of the missing women (estimated deficit of women in countries with suspiciously low proportion of females in their population) today. Globally, most of these avoidable deaths of women occur during childhood in China and India. We aimed to estimate excess female under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) for India's 35 states and union territories and 640 districts. Using the summary birth history method (or Brass method), we derived district-level estimates of U5MR by sex from 2011 census data. We used data from 46 countries with no evidence of gender bias for mortality to estimate the effects and intensity of excess female mortality at district level. We used a detailed spatial and statistical analysis to highlight the correlates of excess mortality at district level. Excess female U5MR was 18·5 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 13·1-22·6) in India 2000-2005, which corresponds to an estimated 239 000 excess deaths (169 000-293 000) per year. More than 90% of districts had excess female mortality, but the four largest states in northern India (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh) accounted for two-thirds of India's total number. Low economic development, gender inequity, and high fertility were the main predictors of excess female mortality. Spatial analysis confirmed the strong spatial clustering of postnatal discrimination against girls in India. The considerable effect of gender bias on mortality in India highlights the need for more proactive engagement with the issue of postnatal sex discrimination and a focus on the northern districts. Notably, these regions are not the same as those most affected by skewed sex ratio at birth. None. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Racial and ethnic disparities in hospital care resulting from air pollution in excess of federal standards.

PubMed

Hackbarth, Andrew D; Romley, John A; Goldman, Dana P

2011-10-01

This study investigates racial and ethnic disparities in hospital admission and emergency room visit rates resulting from exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter levels in excess of federal standards ("excess attributable risk"). We generate zip code-level ambient pollution exposures and hospital event rates using state datasets, and use pollution impact estimates in the epidemiological literature to calculate excess attributable risk for racial/ethnic groups in California over 2005-2007. We find that black residents experienced roughly 2.5 times the excess attributable risk of white residents. Hispanic residents were exposed to the highest levels of pollution, but experienced similar excess attributable risk to whites. Asian/Pacific Islander residents had substantially lower excess attributable risk compared to white. We estimate the distinct contributions of exposure and other factors to these results, and find that factors other than exposure can be critical determinants of pollution-related disparities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Evidence for an Emerging Nonmetropolitan Mortality Penalty in the United States

PubMed Central

Cosby, Arthur G.; Neaves, Tonya T.; Cossman, Ronald E.; Cossman, Jeralynn S.; James, Wesley L.; Feierabend, Neal; Mirvis, David M.; Jones, Carol A.; Farrigan, Tracey

2008-01-01

We discovered an emerging non-metropolitan mortality penalty by contrasting 37 years of age-adjusted mortality rates for metropolitan versus nonmetropolitan US counties. During the 1980s, annual metropolitan–nonmetropolitan differences averaged 6.2 excess deaths per 100000 nonmetropolitan population, or approximately 3600 excess deaths; however, by 2000 to 2004, the difference had increased more than 10 times to average 71.7 excess deaths, or approximately 35 000 excess deaths. We recommend that research be undertaken to evaluate and utilize our preliminary findings of an emerging US nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. PMID:18556611

Cancer-specific mortality, cure fraction, and noncancer causes of death among diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients in the immunochemotherapy era.

PubMed

Howlader, Nadia; Mariotto, Angela B; Besson, Caroline; Suneja, Gita; Robien, Kim; Younes, Naji; Engels, Eric A

2017-09-01

Survival after the diagnosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been increasing since 2002 because of improved therapies; however, long-term outcomes for these patients in the modern treatment era are still unknown. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, this study first assessed factors associated with DLBCL-specific mortality during 2002-2012. An epidemiologic risk profile, based on clinical and demographic characteristics, was used to stratify DLBCL cases into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The proportions of DLBCL cases that might be considered cured in these 3 risk groups was estimated. Risks of death due to various noncancer causes among DLBCL cases versus the general population were also calculated with standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Overall, 8274 deaths were recorded among 18,047 DLBCL cases; 76% of the total deaths were attributed to DLBCL, and 24% were attributed to noncancer causes. The 10-year survival rates for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 80%, 60%, and 36%, respectively. The estimated cure proportions for the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 73%, 49%, and 27%, respectively; however, these cure estimates were uncertain because of the need to extrapolate the survival curves beyond the follow-up time. Mortality risks calculated with SMRs were elevated for conditions including vascular diseases (SMR, 1.3), infections (SMR, 3.1), gastrointestinal diseases (SMR, 2.5), and blood diseases (SMR, 4.6). These mortality risks were especially high within the initial 5 years after the diagnosis and declined after 5 years. Some DLBCL patients may be cured of their cancer, but they continue to experience excess mortality from lymphoma and other noncancer causes. Cancer 2017;123:3326-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, and mortality after release from prison: a nationwide longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Chang, Zheng; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Summary Background High mortality rates have been reported in people released from prison compared with the general population. However, few studies have investigated potential risk factors associated with these high rates, especially psychiatric determinants. We aimed to investigate the association between psychiatric disorders and mortality in people released from prison in Sweden. Methods We studied all people who were imprisoned since Jan 1, 2000, and released before Dec 31, 2009, in Sweden for risks of all-cause and external-cause (accidents, suicide, homicide) mortality after prison release. We obtained data for substance use disorders and other psychiatric disorders, and criminological and sociodemographic factors from population-based registers. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) by Cox regression, and then used them to calculate population attributable fractions for post-release mortality. To control for potential familial confounding, we compared individuals in the study with siblings who were also released from prison, but without psychiatric disorders. We tested whether any independent risk factors improved the prediction of mortality beyond age, sex, and criminal history. Findings We identified 47 326 individuals who were imprisoned. During a median follow-up time of 5·1 years (IQR 2·6–7·5), we recorded 2874 (6%) deaths after release from prison. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 1205 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Substance use disorders significantly increased the rate of all-cause mortality (alcohol use: adjusted HR 1·62, 95% CI 1·48–1·77; drug use: 1·67, 1·53–1·83), and the association was independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and familial factors. We identified no strong evidence that other psychiatric disorders increased mortality after we controlled for potential confounders. In people released from prison, 925 (34%) of all-cause deaths in men and 85 (50%) in women were potentially attributable to substance use disorders. Substance use disorders were also an independent determinant of external-cause mortality, with population attributable fraction estimates at 42% in men and 70% in women. Substance use disorders significantly improved the prediction of external-cause mortality, in addition to sociodemographic and criminological factors. Interpretation Interventions to address substance use disorders could substantially decrease the burden of excess mortality in people released from prison, but might need to be provided beyond the immediate period after release. Funding Wellcome Trust, Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare. PMID:26360286

Livestock mortality in pastoralist herds in Ethiopia and implications for drought response.

PubMed

Catley, Andy; Admassu, Berhanu; Bekele, Gezu; Abebe, Dawit

2014-07-01

Participatory epidemiology methods were employed retrospectively in three pastoralist regions of Ethiopia to estimate the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought. The results showed that starvation/dehydration accounted for between 61.5 and 100 per cent of excess livestock mortality during drought, whereas disease-related mortality accounted for between 0 and 28.1 per cent of excess mortality. Field observations indicate that, in livestock, disease risks and mortality increase in the immediate post-drought period, during rain. The design of livelihoods-based drought response programmes should include protection of core livestock assets, and it should take account of the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought and immediately afterwards. This study shows that, when comparing livestock feed supplementation and veterinary support, relatively more aid should be directed at the former if the objective is to protect core livestock during drought. Veterinary support should consider disease-related mortality in the immediate post-drought period, and tailor inputs accordingly. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Alcohol consumption and pancreatitis mortality in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2014-07-28

Pancreatitis is a major public health problem with high associated economic costs. The incidence of pancreatitis has increased in many European countries in recent decade. Accumulated research and empirical evidence suggests that excessive alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for both acute and chronic pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to examine the aggregate-level relation between the alcohol consumption and pancreatitis mortality rates in Russia. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female pancreatitis mortality data for the period 1970-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series analysis. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female pancreatitis mortality rates: a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 7.0% increase in the male pancreatitis mortality rate and in 2.3% increase in the female mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 63.1% of all male pancreatitis deaths and 26.8% female deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. Conclusions The outcomes of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that unfavorable mixture of higher overall level of alcohol consumption and binge drinking pattern is an important contributor to the pancreatitis mortality rate in Russian Federation.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

PubMed

Sow, Samba O; Muhsen, Khitam; Nasrin, Dilruba; Blackwelder, William C; Wu, Yukun; Farag, Tamer H; Panchalingam, Sandra; Sur, Dipika; Zaidi, Anita K M; Faruque, Abu S G; Saha, Debasish; Adegbola, Richard; Alonso, Pedro L; Breiman, Robert F; Bassat, Quique; Tamboura, Boubou; Sanogo, Doh; Onwuchekwa, Uma; Manna, Byomkesh; Ramamurthy, Thandavarayan; Kanungo, Suman; Ahmed, Shahnawaz; Qureshi, Shahida; Quadri, Farheen; Hossain, Anowar; Das, Sumon K; Antonio, Martin; Hossain, M Jahangir; Mandomando, Inacio; Nhampossa, Tacilta; Acácio, Sozinho; Omore, Richard; Oundo, Joseph O; Ochieng, John B; Mintz, Eric D; O'Reilly, Ciara E; Berkeley, Lynette Y; Livio, Sofie; Tennant, Sharon M; Sommerfelt, Halvor; Nataro, James P; Ziv-Baran, Tomer; Robins-Browne, Roy M; Mishcherkin, Vladimir; Zhang, Jixian; Liu, Jie; Houpt, Eric R; Kotloff, Karen L; Levine, Myron M

2016-05-01

The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS)

PubMed Central

Nasrin, Dilruba; Blackwelder, William C.; Wu, Yukun; Farag, Tamer H.; Panchalingam, Sandra; Sur, Dipika; Zaidi, Anita K. M.; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Saha, Debasish; Adegbola, Richard; Alonso, Pedro L.; Breiman, Robert F.; Bassat, Quique; Tamboura, Boubou; Sanogo, Doh; Onwuchekwa, Uma; Manna, Byomkesh; Ramamurthy, Thandavarayan; Kanungo, Suman; Ahmed, Shahnawaz; Qureshi, Shahida; Quadri, Farheen; Hossain, Anowar; Das, Sumon K.; Antonio, Martin; Hossain, M. Jahangir; Mandomando, Inacio; Nhampossa, Tacilta; Acácio, Sozinho; Omore, Richard; Oundo, Joseph O.; Ochieng, John B.; Mintz, Eric D.; O’Reilly, Ciara E.; Berkeley, Lynette Y.; Livio, Sofie; Tennant, Sharon M.; Sommerfelt, Halvor; Nataro, James P.; Ziv-Baran, Tomer; Robins-Browne, Roy M.; Mishcherkin, Vladimir; Zhang, Jixian; Liu, Jie; Houpt, Eric R.; Kotloff, Karen L.; Levine, Myron M.

2016-01-01

Background The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. Methods Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. Findings Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27–4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85–4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73–2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66–2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33–5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82–8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56–7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24–9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. Conclusions The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies. PMID:27219054

Ethnicity and health care in cervical cancer survival: comparisons between a Filipino resident population, Filipino-Americans, and Caucasians.

PubMed

Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Laudico, Adriano; Mirasol-Lumague, Maria Rica; Gondos, Adam; Uy, Gemma Leonora; Toral, Jean Ann; Benavides, Doris; Brenner, Hermann

2009-08-01

Few studies have assessed and compared cervical cancer survival between developed and developing countries, or between ethnic groups within a country. Fewer still have addressed how much of the international or interracial survival differences can be attributed to ethnicity or health care. To determine the role of ethnicity and health care, 5-year survival of patients with cervical cancer was compared between patients in the Philippines and Filipino-Americans, who have the same ethnicity, and between Filipino-Americans and Caucasians, who have the same health care system. Cervical cancer databases from the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registries and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 13 were used. Age-adjusted 5-year survival estimates were computed and compared between the three patient groups. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, potential determinants of survival differences were examined. Overall 5-year relative survival was similar in Filipino-Americans (68.8%) and Caucasians (66.6%), but was lower for Philippine residents (42.9%). Although late stage at diagnosis explained a large proportion of the survival differences between Philippine residents and Filipino-Americans, excess mortality prevailed after adjustment for stage, age, and morphology in multivariate analysis [relative risk (RR), 2.07; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.68-2.55]. Excess mortality decreased, but persisted, when treatments were included in the multivariate models (RR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.41-2.23). A moderate, marginally significant excess mortality was found among Caucasians compared with Filipino-Americans (adjusted RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.47). The differences in cervical cancer survival between patients in the Philippines and in the United States highlight the importance of enhanced health care and access to diagnostic and treatment facilities in the Philippines.

Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Georgescu, Matei; Balling, Robert C

2014-08-15

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983-2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359%). Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortality among male workers at a thorium-processing plant.

PubMed

Polednak, A P; Stehney, A F; Lucas, H F

1983-01-01

The long-term health effects of exposure to thorium are of interest because of the possible increased use of thorium as an energy source in reactors using 232Th to produce 233U. Mortality is described in a cohort of 3039 men who were employed between 1940 and 1973 at a company involved in the production of thorium and rare earth chemicals from monazite sand. Based on deaths ascertained by the Social Security Administration and mortality rates for U.S. white males, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for all causes was 1.05 with 95% confidence limits (95% CL) of 0.96 and 1.15. Much of the excess mortality was attributable to non-occupational motor vehicle accidents (SMR = 1.64; 95% CL = 1.16 and 2.23), but SMRs were also high for lung cancer (1.44; 95% CL = 0.98 and 2.02), pancreatic cancer (2.01; 95% CL = 0.92 and 3.82), and diseases of the respiratory system (1.31; 95% CL = 0.92 and 1.83). In a subgroup of 592 men who worked for at least one year in selected jobs (indicative of highest exposure to thorium and thoron) that was followed up more intensively, the SMR for pancreatic cancer was significantly elevated (i.e. 4.13; 95% confidence limits = 1.34 and 9.63). The SMR for lung cancer was 1.68 (95% CL = 0.81 and 3.09), while that for respiratory diseases was 1.20 (95% CL = 0.52 and 2.37). Information on smoking habits in a sample of survivors suggested that smoking could have explained at least part of the excess mortality from lung and pancreatic cancer and from diseases of the respiratory system. Continued follow-up of the cohort through morbidity and mortality studies is needed to evaluate further the possible long-term effects of exposure to radioactivity and chemicals in the thorium extraction process.

Association Between Medicare Hospital Readmission Penalties and 30-Day Combined Excess Readmission and Mortality

PubMed Central

Abdul-Aziz, Ahmad A.; Hayward, Rodney A.; Aaronson, Keith D.; Hummel, Scott L.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE US hospitals receive financial penalties for excess risk–standardized 30-day readmissions and mortality in Medicare patients. Under current policy, readmission prevention is incentivized over 10-fold more than mortality reduction. OBJECTIVE To determine how penalties for US hospitals would change if policy equally weighted 30-day readmissions and mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Publicly available hospital-level data for fiscal year 2014 was obtained, including excess readmission ratio (ERR; risk-standardized predicted over expected 30-day readmissions) and 30-day mortality rates for heart failure, pneumonia, and acute myocardial infarction, as well as readmission penalties (as percent of Medicare Diagnosis Group payments). An excess mortality ratio (EMR) was calculated by dividing the risk-standardized predicted mortality by the national average mortality. Case-weighted aggregate ERR (ERRAGG) and EMR (EMRAGG) were calculated, and an excess combined outcome ratio (ECORAGG) was created by averaging ERRAGG and EMRAGG. We examined associations between readmission penalties, ERRAGG, EMRAGG, and ECORAGG. Analysis of variance was used to compare readmission penalties in hospitals with concordant (both ratios >1 or <1) and discordant performance by ERRAGG and ECORAGG. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome investigated was the association between readmission penalties and the calculated excess combined outcome ratio (ECORAGG). RESULTS In 1963 US hospitals with complete data, readmission penalties closely tracked excess readmissions (r = 0.81; P < .001), but were minimally and inversely related with excess mortality (r = −0.12; P < .001) and only modestly correlated with excess combined readmission and mortality (r = 0.36; P < .001). Using hospitals with concordant ERRAGG and ECORAGG as the reference group, 17%of hospitals had an ECORAGG ratio less than 1 (ie, superior combined mortality/readmission outcome) with an ERRAGG ratio greater than 1, and received higher mean (SD) readmission penalties (0.41% [0.28%] vs 0.29% [0.37%]; P < .001); 16%of US hospitals had an ECORAGG ratio of greater than 1 (ie, inferior combined mortality/readmission outcome) with an ERRAGG ratio less than 1, and received minimal mean (SD) readmission penalties (0.08%[0.12%]; P < .001 for comparison with reference). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In fiscal year 2014, financial penalties for one-third of US hospitals would have been substantially altered if 30-day readmission and mortality were considered equally important. Under most circumstances, patients would rather avoid death than rehospitalization. Current Medicare financial penalties do not meet the goals of aligning incentives and fairly reimbursing hospitals for patient-centered outcomes. PMID:27784054

Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

PubMed Central

Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

2014-01-01

Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

PubMed

Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-12-16

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

Impact of unemployment variations on suicide mortality in Western European countries (2000-2010).

PubMed

Laanani, Moussa; Ghosn, Walid; Jougla, Eric; Rey, Grégoire

2015-02-01

A scientific debate is currently taking place on whether the 2008 economic crisis caused an increase in suicide rates. Our main objective was to assess the impact of unemployment rate on suicide rate in Western European countries between 2000 and 2010. We then tried to estimate the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment during the 2008-2010 economic crisis. The yearly suicide rates were modelled using a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for sex, age, country and a linear time trend. For each country, the unemployment-suicide association was assessed, and the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed, notably in order to evaluate whether the unemployment-suicide association found was biased by a confounding context effect ('crisis effect'). A significant 0.3% overall increase in suicide rate for a 10% increase in unemployment rate (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) was highlighted. This association was significant in three countries: 0.7% (95% CI 0.0% to 1.4%) in the Netherlands, 1.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.8%) in the UK and 1.9% (95% CI 0.8% to 2.9%) in France, with a significant excess number of suicides attributable to unemployment variations between 2008 and 2010 (respectively 57, 456 and 564). The association was modified inconsistently when adding a 'crisis effect' into the model. Unemployment and suicide rates are globally statistically associated in the investigated countries. However, this association is weak, and its amplitude and sensitivity to the 'crisis effect' vary across countries. This inconsistency provides arguments against its causal interpretation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Characterizing the Impact of Extreme Heat on Mortality, Karachi, Pakistan, June 2015.

PubMed

Ghumman, Usman; Horney, Jennifer

2016-06-01

Introduction Karachi, Pakistan was affected by a heat wave in June 2015 during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Many media reports attributed the excess deaths in part to the practice of daylight fasting during Ramadan. As much of the published research reports on heat-related mortality in Europe and the United States, an exploration of the effects of extreme heat on residents of a South Asian mega-city address a gap in current disaster research. Hypothesis/Problem This report investigated potential risk factors for excess mortality associated with the June 2015 heat wave in Karachi, Pakistan. Data were obtained through manual review of death certificates at public hospitals and private clinics in Karachi, Pakistan, conducted from July 1 through July 31, 2015 by a trained physician. Demographic data for any deaths with a primary cause of death of heat-related illness were recorded in Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corp.; Redmond, Washington USA). EpiSheet (2012; Rothman. Modern Epidemiology. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania USA) was used to calculate risk differences (RD), rate ratios (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, residents of Karachi were approximately 17 times as likely to die of a heat-related cause of death during June 2015 (RR=17.68; 95% CI, 13.87-22.53) when compared with the reference period of June 2014. Residents with a monthly income lower than 20,000 Pakistani Rupees (US $196; RD=0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.05) and those with less than a fifth grade education (RD=0.03; 95% CI, 0.00-0.05) were at significantly higher risk of death during the 2015 heat wave compared to the reference period. Fasting during Ramadan was not a significant risk factor for mortality from heat-related causes during the Karachi heat wave of June 2015. A large number of excess deaths were reported across all demographic groups, which due to the burden of record keeping in an under-resourced health system during a public health emergency, are almost certainly an underestimate. Ghumman U , Horney J . Characterizing the impact of extreme heat on mortality, Karachi, Pakistan, June 2015. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):263-266.

Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2018-01-01

Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)—dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)—are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.

Mortality Attributable to Low Levels of Education in the United States.

PubMed

Krueger, Patrick M; Tran, Melanie K; Hummer, Robert A; Chang, Virginia W

2015-01-01

Educational disparities in U.S. adult mortality are large and have widened across birth cohorts. We consider three policy relevant scenarios and estimate the mortality attributable to: (1) individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, (2) individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and (3) individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree, using educational disparities specific to the 1925, 1935, and 1945 cohorts. We use the National Health Interview Survey data (1986-2004) linked to prospective mortality through 2006 (N=1,008,949), and discrete-time survival models, to estimate education- and cohort-specific mortality rates. We use those mortality rates and data on the 2010 U.S. population from the American Community Survey, to calculate annual attributable mortality estimates. If adults aged 25-85 in the 2010 U.S. population experienced the educational disparities in mortality observed in the 1945 cohort, 145,243 deaths could be attributed to individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, 110,068 deaths could be attributed to individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and 554,525 deaths could be attributed to individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree. Widening educational disparities between the 1925 and 1945 cohorts result in a doubling of attributable mortality. Mortality attributable to having less than a high school degree is proportionally similar among women and men and among non-Hispanic blacks and whites, and is greater for cardiovascular disease than for cancer. Mortality attributable to low education is comparable in magnitude to mortality attributable to individuals being current rather than former smokers. Existing research suggests that a substantial part of the association between education and mortality is causal. Thus, policies that increase education could significantly reduce adult mortality.

Mortality Attributable to Low Levels of Education in the United States

PubMed Central

Krueger, Patrick M.; Tran, Melanie K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Chang, Virginia W.

2015-01-01

Background Educational disparities in U.S. adult mortality are large and have widened across birth cohorts. We consider three policy relevant scenarios and estimate the mortality attributable to: (1) individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, (2) individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and (3) individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree, using educational disparities specific to the 1925, 1935, and 1945 cohorts. Methods We use the National Health Interview Survey data (1986–2004) linked to prospective mortality through 2006 (N=1,008,949), and discrete-time survival models, to estimate education- and cohort-specific mortality rates. We use those mortality rates and data on the 2010 U.S. population from the American Community Survey, to calculate annual attributable mortality estimates. Results If adults aged 25–85 in the 2010 U.S. population experienced the educational disparities in mortality observed in the 1945 cohort, 145,243 deaths could be attributed to individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, 110,068 deaths could be attributed to individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and 554,525 deaths could be attributed to individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree. Widening educational disparities between the 1925 and 1945 cohorts result in a doubling of attributable mortality. Mortality attributable to having less than a high school degree is proportionally similar among women and men and among non-Hispanic blacks and whites, and is greater for cardiovascular disease than for cancer. Conclusions Mortality attributable to low education is comparable in magnitude to mortality attributable to individuals being current rather than former smokers. Existing research suggests that a substantial part of the association between education and mortality is causal. Thus, policies that increase education could significantly reduce adult mortality. PMID:26153885

Chernobyl cleanup workers from Estonia: follow-up for cancer incidence and mortality

PubMed Central

Rahu, Kaja; Auvinen, Anssi; Hakulinen, Timo; Tekkel, Mare; Inskip, Peter D; Bromet, Evelyn J; Boice, John D; Rahu, Mati

2013-01-01

This study examined cancer incidence (1986–2008) and mortality (1986–2011) among the Estonian Chernobyl cleanup workers in comparison with the Estonian male population. The cohort of 4,810 men was followed through nationwide population, mortality and cancer registries. Cancer and death risks were measured by standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), respectively. Poisson regression was used to analyze the effects of year of arrival, duration of stay, and time since return on cancer and death risks. The SIR for all cancers was 1.06 with 95% confidence interval 0.93–1.20 (232 cases). Elevated risks were found for cancers of pharynx, oesophagus, and the joint category of alcohol-related sites. No clear evidence of an increased risk of thyroid cancer, leukaemia, or radiation-related cancer sites combined was apparent. The SMR for all causes of death was 1.02 with 95% confidence interval 0.96–1.08 (1,018 deaths). Excess mortality was observed for mouth and pharynx cancer, alcohol-related cancer sites together, and suicide. Duration of stay rather than year of arrival was associated with increased mortality. Twenty-six years of follow-up of this cohort indicates no definite health effects attributable to radiation, but the elevated suicide risk has persisted. PMID:23532116

Influenza vaccine coverage, influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia (Spain).

PubMed

Muñoz, M Pilar; Soldevila, Núria; Martínez, Anna; Carmona, Glòria; Batalla, Joan; Acosta, Lesly M; Domínguez, Angela

2011-07-12

The objective of this work was to study the behaviour of influenza with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality in Catalonia, and their association with influenza vaccination coverage. The study was carried out over 13 influenza seasons, from epidemiological week 40 of 1994 to week 20 of 2007, and included confirmed cases of influenza and all-cause mortality. Two generalized linear models were fitted: influenza-associated morbidity was modelled by Poisson regression and all-cause mortality by negative binomial regression. The seasonal component was modelled with the periodic function formed by the sum of the sinus and cosines. Expected influenza mortality during periods of influenza virus circulation was estimated by Poisson regression and its confidence intervals using the Bootstrap approach. Vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity (p<0.001), but not with a reduction in all-cause mortality (p=0.149). In the case of influenza-associated morbidity, an increase of 5% in vaccination coverage represented a reduction of 3% in the incidence rate of influenza. There was a positive association between influenza-associated morbidity and all-cause mortality. Excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics was estimated as 34.4 (95% CI: 28.4-40.8) weekly deaths. In conclusion, all-cause mortality is a good indicator of influenza surveillance and vaccination coverage is associated with a reduction in influenza-associated morbidity but not with all-cause mortality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ozone exposure and daily mortality in Mexico City: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Loomis, D P; Borja-Aburto, V H; Bangdiwala, S I; Shy, C M

1996-10-01

Daily death counts in Mexico City were examined in relation to ambient ozone levels during 1990-1992 for the purpose of investigating the acute, irreversible effects of air pollution, with emphasis on ozone exposure. Air pollution data were obtained from nine monitoring stations operated by the Departamento del Distrito Federal. Mortality data were provided by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía, e Informática. Increases in numbers of deaths were positively associated with elevated air pollution levels on the same day and on the previous day. The magnitude of the increases was small but statistically significant, after Poisson regression models were used to adjust for temperature and long-term trends. In models using data for a single pollutant, the "crude" ratio for total mortality associated with an increase of 100 parts per billion (ppb)* in one-hour maximum ozone concentration was 1.029 (95% CI 1.015, 1.044). A moving average of ozone showed a stronger association (rate ratio [RR] = 1.048, 95% CI 1.025, 1.070), and excess mortality (an increase in the number of deaths, relative to the average on days with low pollution levels) was more evident for persons over 65 years of age. Separate analyses of the effect of elevated ozone for different areas of the city showed similar results, but they were not statistically significant. Other pollutants also were related to mortality. The RR was 1.075 (95% CI 0.984, 1.062) per 100-ppb increase for sulfur dioxide and 1.049 (95% CI 1.030, 1.067) per 100 micrograms/m3 increase in total suspended particulates (TSP) when these pollutants were considered in separate models. However, when all three pollutants were considered simultaneously, only TSP remained associated with mortality, indicating excess mortality of 5% per 100 micrograms/m3 increase [RR = 1.052, 95% CI 1.034, 1.072]. The excess mortality associated with TSP is consistent with that observed in other cities in America and Europe. This study provides some evidence that ozone is associated with all-cause mortality and with mortality among the elderly after controlling for long-term cycles. However, ozone levels exhibited little or no effect on mortality rates when other air pollutants were considered simultaneously. Particulate matter appeared to be an important pollutant; it independently predicted changes in mortality. Nevertheless, because of the complexity and variability of the mixtures to which people are exposed, it is difficult to attribute the observed effects to a single pollutant. The technical feasibility and scientific validity of isolating the effect of single pollutants in such complex mixtures requires further research and careful consideration. Given the large population living in and exposed to ambient air pollution in Mexico City and other metropolises throughout the world, these small but significant associations of mortality with air pollution indices are of public health concern.

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Nayu; Inoue, Manami; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ikeda, Shunya; Satoh, Toshihiko; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Imano, Hironori; Saito, Eiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ezzati, Majid; Shibuya, Kenji

2012-01-01

Background The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. Methods and Findings We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. Conclusions Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22291576

Surveillance of US Death Rates from Chronic Diseases Related to Excessive Alcohol Use.

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2016-01-01

To assess the utility of multiple-cause (MC) death records for surveillance of US mortality rates from chronic causes related to excessive alcohol use. The Alcohol-Related Disease Impact (ARDI) resource produced estimates of the population 'alcohol attributable fraction' (AAF) due to excessive drinking for each alcohol-related (AAF > 0%) cause of death, and used AAFs to estimate numbers of alcohol-related deaths from alcohol-related underlying causes (UC) in adults age 20-64 and 65+ years in 2006-2010. For surveillance, this study used MC death file to identify individual deaths (2006-2010) with an 'alcohol-induced' cause (AAF = 100%) anywhere on the certificate, and to obtain US rates of premature death (ages 15-64 and 65-74 years) for 1999-2012. Using the selected MC records, numbers of deaths from alcohol-related chronic UC (2006-2010) were 81% of ARDI estimates for age 20-64, but only 40% for 65+ years. The MC records identified substantial numbers of deaths from causes (e.g. certain infectious diseases) not included as alcohol-related in ARDI, but included in surveillance of premature death rates for chronic UC. Also, premature death rates for chronic alcohol-induced causes using only the UC (as in routine mortality statistics) were only about half the rates based on MC; all rates increased in recent years but some reached statistical significance only by using MC. Using MC records underestimated total US deaths from alcohol-related chronic causes as the UC, but enhanced surveillance of rates for premature deaths involving chronic causes that may be related to excessive alcohol use. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Long-term health experience of jet engine manufacturing workers: IX. further investigation of general mortality patterns in relation to workplace exposures.

PubMed

Youk, Ada O; Marsh, Gary M; Buchanich, Jeanine M; Downing, Sarah; Kennedy, Kathleen J; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hancock, Roger P; Lacey, Steven E

2013-06-01

To evaluate mortality rates among a cohort of jet engine manufacturing workers. Subjects were 222,123 workers employed from 1952 to 2001. Vital status was determined through 2004 for 99% of subjects and cause of death for 95% of 68,317 deaths. We computed standardized mortality ratios and modeled internal cohort rates. Mortality excesses reported initially no longer met the criteria for further investigation. We found two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related mortality excesses that met the criteria in two of eight study plants. At the total cohort level, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related categories were not related to any factors or occupational exposures considered. A full evaluation of these excesses was limited by lack of data on smoking history. Occupational exposures received outside of work or uncontrolled positive confounding by smoking cannot be ruled out as reasons for these excesses.

Meta-Analysis of Self-Reported Daytime Napping and Risk of Cardiovascular or All-Cause Mortality

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaokun; Zhang, Qi; Shang, Xiaoming

2015-01-01

Background Whether self-reported daytime napping is an independent predictor of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality by conducting a meta-analysis. Material/Methods A computerized literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library was conducted up to May 2014. Only prospective studies reporting risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality with respect to baseline self-reported daytime napping were included. Results Seven studies with 98,163 subjects were included. Self-reported daytime napping was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07–1.24) compared with non-nappers. Risk of all-cause mortality appeared to be more pronounced among persons with nap duration >60 min (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.04–1.27) than persons with nap duration <60 min (RR 1.10; 95% CI 0.92–1.32). The pooled RR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.19 (95% CI 0.97–1.48) comparing daytime nappers to non-nappers. Conclusions Self-reported daytime napping is a mild but statistically significant predictor for all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. However, whether the risk is attributable to excessive sleep duration or napping alone remains controversial. More prospective studies stratified by sleep duration, napping periods, or age are needed. PMID:25937468

Meta-analysis of self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaokun; Zhang, Qi; Shang, Xiaoming

2015-05-04

Whether self-reported daytime napping is an independent predictor of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate self-reported daytime napping and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality by conducting a meta-analysis. A computerized literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library was conducted up to May 2014. Only prospective studies reporting risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality with respect to baseline self-reported daytime napping were included. Seven studies with 98,163 subjects were included. Self-reported daytime napping was associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07-1.24) compared with non-nappers. Risk of all-cause mortality appeared to be more pronounced among persons with nap duration >60 min (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.04-1.27) than persons with nap duration <60 min (RR 1.10; 95% CI 0.92-1.32). The pooled RR of cardiovascular mortality was 1.19 (95% CI 0.97-1.48) comparing daytime nappers to non-nappers. Self-reported daytime napping is a mild but statistically significant predictor for all-cause mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. However, whether the risk is attributable to excessive sleep duration or napping alone remains controversial. More prospective studies stratified by sleep duration, napping periods, or age are needed.

Psychosocial determinants of premature cardiovascular mortality differences within Hungary.

PubMed

Kopp, Maria; Skrabski, Arpád; Szántó, Zsuzsa; Siegrist, Johannes

2006-09-01

The life expectancy gap between Central-Eastern European (CEE) countries, including Hungary, and Western Europe (WE) is mainly attributable to excess cardiovascular (CV) mortality in midlife. This study explores the contribution of socioeconomic, work related, psychosocial, and behavioural variables to explaining variations of middle aged male and female CV mortality across 150 sub-regions in Hungary. Cross sectional, ecological analyses. 150 sub-regions of Hungary. 12 643 people were interviewed in Hungarostudy 2002 survey, representing the Hungarian population according to sex, age, and sub-regions. Independent variables were income, education, control in work, job insecurity, weekend working hours, social support, depression, hostility, anomie, smoking, body mass index, and alcohol misuse. Gender specific standardised premature (45-64 years) total CV, ischaemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular mortality rates in 150 sub-regions of Hungary. Low education and income were the most important determinants of mid-aged CV mortality differences across sub-regions. High weekend workload, low social support at work, and low control at work account for a large part of variation in male premature CV mortality rates, whereas job insecurity, high weekend workload, and low control at work contribute most noticeably to variations in premature CV mortality rates among women. Low social support from friends, depression, anomie, hostility, alcohol misuse and cigarette smoking can also explain a considerable part of variations of premature CV mortality differences. Variations in middle aged CV mortality rates in a rapidly changing society in CEE are largely accounted for by distinct unfavourable working and other psychosocial stress conditions.

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of pre-existing immunity in older populations

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo

2010-01-01

Background While the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the US, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in two Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca. Methods We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915–1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data. Results We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, fall 1918, and winter 1920, characterized by unusual excess mortality in 25–44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City, but did not have a substantial 3rd wave. All age groups including those over 65 years experienced excess mortality during 1918–20. Reproduction number estimates were below 2.5 assuming a 3-day generation interval. Conclusion Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the US and Europe. In contrast to the US and Europe, there was no mortality sparing in Mexican seniors, highlighting potential geographical differences in pre-existing immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns. PMID:20594109

North-South disparities in English mortality1965-2015: longitudinal population study.

PubMed

Buchan, Iain E; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Sperrin, Matthew; Chandola, Tarani; Doran, Tim

2017-09-01

Social, economic and health disparities between northern and southern England have persisted despite Government policies to reduce them. We examine long-term trends in premature mortality in northern and southern England across age groups, and whether mortality patterns changed after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. Population-wide longitudinal (1965-2015) study of mortality in England's five northernmost versus four southernmost Government Office Regions - halves of overall population. directly age-sex adjusted mortality rates; northern excess mortality (percentage excess northern vs southern deaths, age-sex adjusted). From 1965 to 2010, premature mortality (deaths per 10 000 aged <75 years) declined from 64 to 28 in southern versus 72 to 35 in northern England. From 2010 to 2015 the rate of decline in premature mortality plateaued in northern and southern England. For most age groups, northern excess mortality remained consistent from 1965 to 2015. For 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, however, northern excess mortality increased sharply between 1995 and 2015: from 2.2% (95% CI -3.2% to 7.6%) to 29.3% (95% CI 21.0% to 37.6%); and 3.3% (95% CI -1.0% to 7.6%) to 49.4% (95% CI 42.8% to 55.9%), respectively. This was due to northern mortality increasing (ages 25-34) or plateauing (ages 35-44) from the mid-1990s while southern mortality mainly declined. England's northern excess mortality has been consistent among those aged <25 and 45+ for the past five decades but risen alarmingly among those aged 25-44 since the mid-90s, long before the Great Recession. This profound and worsening structural inequality requires more equitable economic, social and health policies, including potential reactions to the England-wide loss of improvement in premature mortality. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimating the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Otto, Simon J G; Carson, Carolee A; Finley, Rita L; Thomas, M Kate; Reid-Smith, Richard J; McEwen, Scott A

2014-11-01

A stochastic model was used to estimate the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario attributable to chicken consumption and excess cases attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption. The annual mean incidence of S. Heidelberg (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 70/62 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 29/30 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 59/45 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean incidence of ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken decreased from 8/7 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 1/1 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 7/5 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean total number of excess ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 71/123 in 2004 to 6/24 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), but increased to 62/91 in 2011. This model will support future work to determine the increased severity, mortality and healthcare costs for ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella Heidelberg infections. These results provide a basis for the evaluation of future public health interventions to address antimicrobial resistance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cancer mortality in poultry slaughtering/processing plant workers belonging to a union pension fund.

PubMed

Johnson, Eric S; Ndetan, Harrison; Lo, Ka-Ming

2010-08-01

The role of zoonotic biological agents in human cancer occurrence has been little studied. Humans are commonly exposed to viruses that naturally infect and cause cancer in food animals such as poultry that constitute part of the biological environment. It is not known if these viruses cause cancer in humans. To study cancer mortality in the largest cohort to date, of 20,132 workers in poultry slaughtering and processing plants, a group with the highest human exposures to these viruses. Mortality in poultry workers was compared with that in the US general population through the estimation of standardized mortality ratios. Significantly increased risks were observed in the cohort as a whole or in subgroups, for several cancer sites, viz: cancers of the buccal cavity and pharynx; pancreas; trachea/bronchus/lung; brain; cervix; lymphoid leukemia; monocytic leukemia; and tumors of the hemopoietic and lymphatic systems. Elevated SMRs that were not statistically significant were observed for cancers of the liver, nasopharynx, myelofibrosis, and myeloma. New sites observed to be significantly in excess in this study were cancers of the cervix and penis. This large study provides evidence that a human group with high exposure to poultry oncogenic viruses has increased risk of dying from several cancers. Other occupational carcinogenic exposures could be of importance in explaining some of the findings, such as fumes from wrapping machines. These findings may have implications for public health amongst persons in the general population who may also be exposed to these viruses. What is needed now are epidemiologic studies that can demonstrate whether the excess of specific cancers can be attributed to specific occupational exposures while adequately controlling for other potential occupational and non-occupational carcinogenic exposures. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic-A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves.

PubMed

Urban, Aleš; Hanzlíková, Hana; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2017-12-13

This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

PubMed Central

Urban, Aleš; Hanzlíková, Hana; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2017-01-01

This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country’s entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0–64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere. PMID:29236040

Sex-Based Differences in Rates, Causes, and Predictors of Death Among Injection Drug Users in Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Kanna; Dong, Huiru; Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Milloy, Michael-John; Montaner, Julio S. G.; Wood, Evan; Kerr, Thomas

2016-01-01

In the present study, we sought to identify rates, causes, and predictors of death among male and female injection drug users (IDUs) in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, during a period of expanded public health interventions. Data from prospective cohorts of IDUs in Vancouver were linked to the provincial database of vital statistics to ascertain rates and causes of death between 1996 and 2011. Mortality rates were analyzed using Poisson regression and indirect standardization. Predictors of mortality were identified using multivariable Cox regression models stratified by sex. Among the 2,317 participants, 794 (34.3%) of whom were women, there were 483 deaths during follow-up, with a rate of 32.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29.3, 35.0) deaths per 1,000 person-years. Standardized mortality ratios were 7.28 (95% CI: 6.50, 8.14) for men and 15.56 (95% CI: 13.31, 18.07) for women. During the study period, mortality rates related to infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) declined among men but remained stable among women. In multivariable analyses, HIV seropositivity was independently associated with mortality in both sexes (all P < 0.05). The excess mortality burden among IDUs in our cohorts was primarily attributable to HIV infection; compared with men, women remained at higher risk of HIV-related mortality, indicating a need for sex-specific interventions to reduce mortality among female IDUs in this setting. PMID:26865265

Obesity and excess mortality among the elderly in the United States and Mexico.

PubMed

Monteverde, Malena; Noronha, Kenya; Palloni, Alberto; Novak, Beatriz

2010-02-01

Increasing levels of obesity could compromise future gains in life expectancy in low- and high-income countries. Although excess mortality associated with obesity and, more generally, higher levels of body mass index (BAI) have been investigated in the United States, there is little research about the impact of obesity on mortality in Latin American countries, where very the rapid rate of growth of prevalence of obesity and overweight occur jointly with poor socioeconomic conditions. The aim of this article is to assess the magnitude of excess mortality due to obesity and overweight in Mexico and the United States. For this purpose, we take advantage of two comparable data sets: the Health and Retirement Study 2000 and 2004 for the United States, and the Mexican Health and Aging Study 2001 and 2003 for Mexico. We find higher excess mortality risks among obese and overweight individuals aged 60 and older in Mexico than in the United States. Yet, when analyzing excess mortality among different socioeconomic strata, we observe greater gaps by education in the United States than in Mexico. We also find that although the probability of experiencing obesity-related chronic diseases among individuals with high BMI is larger for the U.S. elderly, the relative risk of dying conditional on experiencing these diseases is higher in Mexico.

Transient cultural influences on infant mortality: Fire-Horse daughters in Japan.

PubMed

Bruckner, Tim A; Subbaraman, Meenakshi; Catalano, Ralph A

2011-01-01

Parental investment theory suggests that the quality and quantity of parental care depends, in part, on assessments of whether offspring will survive and yield grandchildren. Consistent with this theory, we hypothesize that parental perception that a birth cohort will have low reproductive success coincides with higher than expected infant mortality in the cohort. We test this hypothesis in industrialized Japan in 1966 when cultural aversion to females born in the astrological year of the Fire-Horse may have jeopardized the life of female infants. We applied time-series methods to cohort infant mortality data for Japan, from 1947 to 1976, to test whether female infant mortality in 1966 rose above levels expected from history, male infant mortality, and fertility. Methods control for the secular decline in infant mortality as well as other temporal patterns that could induce spurious associations. Findings support the hypothesis in that female infant mortality rises by 1.1 deaths per 1,000 live births above expected levels (coefficient = 0.0011; standard error = 0.0005; P = 0.03). The result indicates an excess of 721 female infant deaths statistically attributable to the Fire-Horse year. Findings remain robust to control for male infant mortality and the secular decline in mortality over the test period. The discovery of a predictable, acute increase in female infant mortality during the Fire-Horse year supports the relevance of parental investment theory to developed countries. Results should encourage further research on the health sequelae of abrupt, population-level shifts in culture. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Long-Term Causes of Death and Excess Mortality After Carotid Artery Ligation.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Tarik F; Jahromi, Behnam Rezai; Miettinen, Joonas; Raj, Rahul; Andrade-Barazarte, Hugo; Goehre, Felix; Kivisaari, Riku; Lehto, Hanna; Hernesniemi, Juha

2016-06-01

Carotid artery ligation (CAL) is used to treat large and complex intracranial aneurysms. However, little is known about long-term survival and causes of death in patients who undergo the procedure. This study was intended to evaluate if patients who have undergone CAL have long-term excess mortality and what the causes of death are. All patients were treated at Helsinki University Hospital between 1937 and 2009. Patients who had undergone CAL and survived ≥1 year after the procedure were included in the cohort. Follow-up was until death or 2015 (2711 patient-years). Causes of death were reviewed and relative survival ratios calculated using the Ederer II method and a matched population. There was 12% excess mortality in all patients 20 years after CAL and 22% after 30 years. A higher proportion of the patients who had subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) died during follow-up compared with unruptured patients undergoing CAL. Cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular accident were the leading causes of death. Patients with unruptured aneurysms did not experience as much excess mortality as those who had an SAH. The higher proportion of deaths observed in ruptured patients may be partly because of long-term excess mortality conferred by the SAH itself or SAH risk factors. Although the entire population did display excess mortality compared with the general population, this may be because of shared risk factors for aneurysm development and rupture and the cause of death. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan, 2010-2030.

PubMed

Saito, Eiko; Charvat, Hadrien; Goto, Atsushi; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami

2016-04-01

Diabetes mellitus constitutes a major disease burden globally, and the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to estimate the burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan between 2010 and 2030. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fraction of cancer risk associated with type 2 diabetes in 2010 and 2030 using the prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes in Japan from 1990 to 2030, summary hazard ratios of diabetes and cancer risk from a pooled analysis of eight large-scale Japanese cohort studies, observed incidence/mortality of cancer in 2010 and predicted incidence/mortality for 2030 derived from the age-period-cohort model. Our results showed that between 2010 and 2030, the total numbers of cancer incidence and mortality were predicted to increase by 38.9% and 10.5% in adults aged above 20 years, respectively. In the number of excess incident cancer cases associated with type 2 diabetes, an increase of 26.5% in men and 53.2% in women is expected between 2010 and 2030. The age-specific analysis showed that the population attributable fraction of cancer will increase in adults aged >60 years over time, but will not change in adults aged 20-59 years. In conclusion, this study suggests a modest but steady increase in cancers associated with type 2 diabetes. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Socioeconomic differences in alcohol-attributable mortality compared with all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Probst, Charlotte; Roerecke, Michael; Behrendt, Silke; Rehm, Jürgen

2014-08-01

Factors underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are not well understood. This study contributes to our understanding of potential pathways to result in socioeconomic inequalities, by examining alcohol consumption as one potential explanation via comparing socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol-attributable mortality and all-cause mortality. Web of Science, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and ETOH were searched systematically from their inception to second week of February 2013 for articles reporting alcohol-attributable mortality by socioeconomic status, operationalized by using information on education, occupation, employment status or income. The sex-specific ratios of relative risks (RRRs) of alcohol-attributable mortality to all-cause mortality were pooled for different operationalizations of socioeconomic status using inverse-variance weighted random effects models. These RRRs were then combined to a single estimate. We identified 15 unique papers suitable for a meta-analysis; capturing about 133 million people, 3 741 334 deaths from all causes and 167 652 alcohol-attributable deaths. The overall RRRs amounted to RRR = 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 to 2.22) and RRR = 1.66 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.31), for women and men, respectively. In other words: lower socioeconomic status leads to 1.5-2-fold higher mortality for alcohol-attributable causes compared with all causes. Alcohol was identified as a factor underlying higher mortality risks in more disadvantaged populations. All alcohol-attributable mortality is in principle avoidable, and future alcohol policies must take into consideration any differential effect on socioeconomic groups. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita

2016-05-16

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Graham; Renehan, Prof Andrew G; Stevens, Gretchen A; Ezzati, Prof Majid; Ferlay, Jacques; Miranda, J. Jaime; Romieu, Isabelle; Dikshit, Rajesh; Forman, David; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2015-01-01

Background Excess body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policyand future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to excess BMI. Methods Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were derived using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex and country. Assuming a10-year lag-period, PAFs were calculated using BMI estimates in 2002. GLOBOCAN2012 was used to compute numbers of new cancer cases attributable to excess BMI. In an alternative scenario, we computed the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers assuming that populations maintained their BMI-level observed in 1982. Secondary analyses were performed to test the model and estimate the impactof hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and smoking. Findings Worldwide, we estimated that 481,000 or 3·6% of all new cancer cases in 2012 were attributable to excess BMI. PAFs were greater in women compared with men (5·4% versus 1·9%). The burden was concentrated in countries with very high and high human development index (HDI, PAF: 5·3% and 4·8%) compared with countries with moderate and low HDI (PAF: 1·6% and 1·0%). Corpus uteri, post-menopausal breast and colon cancers accounted for approximately two-thirds (64%) of excess BMI attributable cancers. One fourth (~118,000) of all cases related to excess BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the rising BMI since 1982. Interpretation These findings further underpin the need for a global effort to abate the rising trends in population-level excess weight. Assuming that the relationship between excess BMI and cancer is causal and the current pattern of population weight gain continues, this will likely augment the future burden of cancer. Funding World Cancer Research Fund, Marie Currie Fellowship, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and US NIH. PMID:25467404

Long-term mortality study of steelworkers. IX. Mortality patterns among sheet and tin mill workers.

PubMed

Mazumdar, S; Lerer, T; Redmond, C K

1975-12-01

As a result of findings of an earlier report in this series, this study examines the updated cause-specific mortality of men employed in the sheet and tin mill areas of the steel industry. In order to investigate possible relationships between occupational responsibilities or exposures and mortality from specific causes, the sheet and tin mills have been subdivided into 13 mutually exclusive work areas. Detailed analysis is limited primarily to white workers due to the small number of nonwhites in these areas. The most important observations are: 1. Increased overall mortality appears for men employed in 1953 in the sheet finishing and shipping area, confirming the findings of Lloyd, et al. The earlier observation of a significant excess in deaths from vascular lesions of the central nervous system does not hold over time. The previously noted excess for this cause may be related to selective factors or an extreme chance observation. The excess in mortality from all causes of death, which occurs over several disease categories, may not be a result of occupational exposures, but rather some selectivity. 2. Significant excesses in mortality from arteriosclerotic heart disease are noted among men employed in batch pickling and sheet dryer operations, which is in agreement with the earlier findings. Increased risks of dying from hypertensive heart disease are seen in the coating area. 3. Cancer of the lymphatic and hematopoietic tissues is found to be a significant source of excess mortality for workers in the heat treating and forging and tin finishing and shipping work areas. 4. Steelworkers employed in the annealing-normalizing work area show an excess in deaths from nonmalignant respiratory diseases, primarily pneumonia. Further study in these areas should attempt to investigate whether factors in the work environment may be responsible for the observed excess mortalities. More specifically, work should be done to find out whether men employed in heat treating and forging and tin finishing and shipping work in close proximity to chemicals or radiation exposure and whether workers employed in the annealing-normalizing area are exposed to any kind of oil, vapor, or chemical which might be irritating or infectious to the respiratory system. A similar analysis for men working in the batch pickling and sheet dryers and coating areas would also be worthwhile. The main emphasis of any future study should lie upon investigating whether the observed excess mortalities are due to any environmental factor, selection for health, or random fluctuation.

Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France

PubMed Central

Fouillet, Anne; Rey, Grégoire; Laurent, Françoise; Pavillon, Gérard; Bellec, Stéphanie; Ghihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal; Clavel, Jacqueline; Jougla, Eric; Hémon, Denis

2006-01-01

Objectives From August 1st to 20th, 2003, the mean maximum temperature in France exceeded the seasonal norm by 11 to 12°C on nine consecutive days. A major increase in mortality was then observed, which main epidemiological features are described herein. Methods The number of deaths observed from August to November, 2003 in France was compared to those expected on the basis of the mortality rates observed from 2000 to 2002 and the 2003 population estimates. Results From August 1st to 20th, 2003, 15000 excess deaths were observed. From 35 years age, the excess mortality was marked and increased with age. It was 15% higher in women than in men of comparable age as of age 45 years. Excess mortality at home and in retirement institutions was greater than that in hospitals. The mortality of widowed, single and divorced subjects was greater than that of married people. Deaths directly related to heat, heatstroke, hyperthermia and dehydration increased massively. Cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined morbid disorders, respiratory diseases and nervous system diseases also markedly contributed to the excess mortality. The geographic variations in mortality showed a clear age-dependent relationship with the number of very hot days. No harvesting effect was observed. Conclusions Heat waves must be considered as a threat to European populations living in climates that are currently temperate. While the elderly and people living alone are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, no segment of the population may be considered protected from the risks associated with heat waves. PMID:16523319

A cohort mortality study of employees exposed to chlorinated chemicals.

PubMed

Wong, O

1988-01-01

The cohort of this historical prospective mortality study consisted of 697 male employees at a chlorination plant. A majority of the cohort was potentially exposed to benzotrichloride, benzyl chloride, benzoyl chloride, and other related chemicals. The mortality experience of the cohort was observed from 1943 through 1982. For the cohort as a whole, no statistically significant mortality excess was detected. The overall Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) was 100, and the SMR for all cancers combined was 122 (not significant). The respiratory cancer SMR for the cohort as a whole was 246 (7 observed vs. 2.8 expected). The excess was of borderline statistical significance, the lower 95% confidence limit being 99. Analysis by race showed that all 7 respiratory cancer deaths came from the white male employees, with an SMR of 265 (p less than 0.05). The respiratory cancer mortality excess was higher among employees in maintenance (SMR = 229) than among those in operations or production (SMR = 178). The lung cancer mortality excess among the laboratory employees was statistically significant (SMR = 1292). However, this observation should be viewed with caution, since it was based on only 2 deaths. Further analysis indicated that the respiratory cancer mortality excess was limited to the male employees with 15 or more years of employment (SMR = 379, p less than 0.05). Based on animal data as well as other epidemiologic studies, together with the internal consistency of analysis by length of employment, the data suggest an association between the chlorination process of toluene at the plant and an increased risk of respiratory cancer.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Mortality among styrene-exposed workers in the reinforced plastic boatbuilding industry.

PubMed

Ruder, Avima M; Meyers, Alysha R; Bertke, Stephen J

2016-02-01

We updated mortality through 2011 for 5203 boat-building workers potentially exposed to styrene, and analysed mortality among 1678 employed a year or more between 1959 and 1978. The a priori hypotheses: excess leukaemia and lymphoma would be found. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% CIs and standardised rate ratios (SRRs) used Washington State rates and a person-years analysis programme, LTAS.NET. The SRR analysis compared outcomes among tertiles of estimated cumulative potential styrene exposure. Overall, 598 deaths (SMR=0.96, CI 0.89 to 1.04) included excess lung (SMR=1.23, CI 0.95 to 1.56) and ovarian cancer (SMR 3.08, CI 1.00 to 7.19), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (SMR=1.15, CI 0.81 to 1.58). Among 580 workers with potential high-styrene exposure, COPD mortality increased 2-fold (SMR=2.02, CI 1.08 to 3.46). COPD was more pronounced among those with potential high-styrene exposure. However, no outcome was related to estimated cumulative styrene exposure, and there was no change when latency was taken into account. We found no excess leukaemia or lymphoma mortality. As in most occupational cohort studies, lack of information on lifestyle factors or other employment was a substantial limitation although we excluded from the analyses those (n=3525) who worked <1 year. Unanticipated excess ovarian cancer mortality could be a chance finding. Comparing subcohorts with potential high-styrene and low-styrene exposure, COPD mortality SRR was elevated while lung cancer SRR was not, suggesting that smoking was not the only cause for excess COPD mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

26 CFR 1.58-7 - Tax preferences attributable to foreign sources; preferences other than capital gains and stock...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... of income and deduction relating to excess investment interest are as follows: United States France... per-country foreign tax credit limitation, his excess investment interest from France and Germany... attributable to France is limited as follows: Total worldwide excess ($90,000)/Total separately determined...

Excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, B; Shaposhnikov, D

2008-10-01

To estimate excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells, and to identify vulnerable population groups by age and cause of death. Daily mortality in Moscow, Russia from all non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes between January 2000 and February 2006 was analysed. Mortality and displaced mortality during cold spells and heat waves were estimated using independent samples t tests. Cumulative excess non-accidental mortality during the 2001 heat wave was 33% (95% CI 20% to 46%), or approximately 1200 additional deaths, with short-term displaced mortality contributing about 10% of these. Mortality from coronary heart disease increased by 32% (95% CI 16% to 48%), cerebrovascular mortality by 51% (95% CI 29% to 73%) and respiratory mortality by 80% (95% CI 57% to 101%). In the 75+ age group, corresponding mortality increments were consistently higher except respiratory deaths. An estimated 560 extra deaths were observed during the three heat waves of 2002, when non-accidental mortality increased by 8.5%, 7.8% and 6.1%, respectively. About 40% of these deaths were brought forward by only a few days, bringing net mortality change down to 3.2% (95% CI 0.8% to 5.5%). The cumulative effects of the two cold spells in 2006 on mortality were significant only in the 75+ age group, for which average daily mortality from all non-accidental causes increased by 9.9% (95% CI 8.0% to 12%) and 8.9% (95% CI 6.7% to 11%), resulting in 370 extra deaths; there were also significant increases in coronary disease mortality and cerebrovascular mortality. This study confirms that daily mortality in Moscow increases during heat waves and cold spells. A considerable proportion of excess deaths during heat waves occur a short time earlier than they would otherwise have done. Harvesting, or short-term mortality displacement, may be less significant for longer periods of sustained heat stress.

The poor outcome of ischemic stroke in very old people: a cohort study of its determinants.

PubMed

Denti, Licia; Scoditti, Umberto; Tonelli, Claudio; Saccavini, Marsilio; Caminiti, Caterina; Valcavi, Rita; Benatti, Mario; Ceda, Gian Paolo

2010-01-01

To assess how much of the excess risk of poor outcome from stroke in people aged 80 and older aging per se explains, independent of other prognostic determinants. Cohort, observational. University hospital. One thousand five hundred fifty-five patients with first-ever ischemic stroke consecutively referred to an in-hospital Clinical Pathway program were studied. The relationship between age and 1-month outcome (death, disability (modified Rankin Scale 3-5), and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 3-6)) was assessed, with adjustment for several prognostic factors. Six hundred twelve patients aged 80 and older showed worse outcome after 1 month than those who were younger, in terms of mortality (19% vs 5%, hazard ratio (HR)=3.85, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.8-5.4) and disability (51% vs 33%, odds ratio (OR)=3.16, 95% CI=2.5-4.0), although in multivariate models, the adjusted HR for mortality decreased to 1.47 (95% CI=1.0-2.16) and the ORs for disability and poor outcome decreased to 1.76 (95% CI=1.32-2.3.) and 1.83 (95% CI=137-2.43), respectively. Stroke severity, the occurrence of at least one medical complication, and premorbid disability explained most of the risk excess in the oldest-old. Stroke outcome is definitely worse in very old people, and most of the excess risk of death and disability is attributable to the higher occurrences of the most-severe clinical stroke syndromes and of medical complications in the acute phase. These represent potential targets for preventive and therapeutical strategies specifically for elderly people.

Life expectancy and cardiovascular mortality in persons with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Laursen, Thomas M; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Vestergaard, Mogens

2012-03-01

To assess the impact of cardiovascular disease on the excess mortality and shortened life expectancy in schizophrenic patients. Patients with schizophrenia have two-fold to three-fold higher mortality rates compared with the general population, corresponding to a 10-25-year reduction in life expectancy. Although the mortality rate from suicide is high, natural causes of death account for a greater part of the reduction in life expectancy. The reviewed studies suggest four main reasons for the excess mortality and reduced life expectancy. First, persons with schizophrenia tend to have suboptimal lifestyles including unhealthy diets, excessive smoking and alcohol use, and lack of exercise. Second, antipsychotic drugs may have adverse effects. Third, physical illnesses in persons with schizophrenia are common, but diagnosed late and treated insufficiently. Lastly, the risk of suicide and accidents among schizophrenic patients is high. Schizophrenia is associated with a substantially higher mortality and curtailed life expectancy partly caused by modifiable risk factors.

Differential mortality in New York City (1988-1992). Part One: excess mortality among non-Hispanic blacks.

PubMed

Fang, J; Madhavan, S; Cohen, H; Alderman, M H

1995-01-01

To determine the distribution of mortality for non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in New York City, death certificates issued in New York City during 1988 through 1992, and the relevant 1990 US census data for New York City, have been examined. Age-adjusted death rates for blacks and whites by gender and cause of death were computed based on the US population in 1940. Also, standard mortality ratios and excess mortality were calculated using the New York City mortality rate as reference. The results showed that New York City blacks had higher age-adjusted death rates than whites regardless of cause, including stroke, AIDS, homicide, and diabetes. The rate for New York City blacks was also higher than the US total for both genders. Using New York City mortality rates as a reference, more than 80% of excess deaths in blacks occurred before age 65. Injury/poisoning was the leading cause of excess death (20.1%) in black males, while in black females, cardiovascular disease was the largest single cause of excess deaths (24.8%). The higher death rates, especially premature death, of blacks in New York City are related to conditions such as violence, substance abuse, and AIDS, for which prevention rather than medical care is the more likely solution, as well as to cardiovascular diseases, where both prevention through behavioral change, and health and medical care, can influence outcome.

An Investigation on Attributes of Ambient Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range on Mortality in Five East-Asian Countries.

PubMed

Lee, Whan-Hee; Lim, Youn-Hee; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Jang, Hye-Min; Kim, Ho

2017-08-31

Interest in the health effects of extremely low/high ambient temperature and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) on mortality as representative indices of temperature variability is growing. Although numerous studies have reported on these indices independently, few studies have provided the attributes of ambient temperature and DTR related to mortality, concurrently. In this study, we aimed to investigate and compare the mortality risk attributable to ambient temperature and DTR. The study included data of 63 cities in five East-Asian countries/regions during various periods between 1972 and 2013. The attributable risk of non-accidental death to ambient temperature was 9.36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.98-9.69%) and to DTR was 0.59% (95% CI: 0.53-0.65%). The attributable cardiovascular mortality risks to ambient temperature (15.63%) and DTR (0.75%) are higher than the risks to non-accidental/respiratory-related mortality. We verified that ambient temperature plays a larger role in temperature-associated mortality, and cardiovascular mortality is susceptible to ambient temperature and DTR.

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

PubMed

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling.

PubMed

McLeod, Melissa; Blakely, Tony; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Harris, Ricci

2014-01-01

A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. Methods We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. Results For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care. PMID:24910540

Coronary heart disease mortality in treated familial hypercholesterolaemia: Update of the UK Simon Broome FH register.

PubMed

Humphries, S E; Cooper, J A; Seed, M; Capps, N; Durrington, P N; Jones, B; McDowell, I F W; Soran, H; Neil, H A W

2018-05-01

Patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) have an elevated risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Here we compare changes in CHD mortality in patients with heterozygous (FH) pre 1992, before lipid-lowering therapy with statins was used routinely, and in the periods 1992-2008 and 2008-2016. 1903 Definite (DFH) and 1650 Possible (PFH) patients (51% women) aged 20-79 years, recruited from 21 lipid clinics in the United Kingdom and followed prospectively between 1980 and 2016 for 67,060 person-years. The CHD standardised mortality ratio (SMR) compared to the population in England and Wales was calculated (with 95% Confidence intervals). There were 585 deaths, including 252 from CHD. Overall, the observed 2.4-fold excess coronary mortality for treated DFH post-1991 was significantly higher than the 1.78 excess for PFH (35% 95% CI 3%-76%). In patients with DFH and established coronary disease, there was a significant excess coronary mortality in all time periods, but in men it was reduced from a 4.83-fold excess (2.32-8.89) pre-1992 to 4.66 (3.46-6.14) in 1992-2008 and 2.51 (1.01-5.17) post-2008, while in women the corresponding values were 7.23 (2.65-15.73), 4.42 (2.70-6.82) and 6.34 (2.06-14.81). Primary prevention in men with DFH resulted in a progressive reduction in coronary mortality over the three time-periods, with no excess mortality evident post-2008 (0.89 (0.29-2.08)), although in women the excess persisted (post-2008 3.65 (1.75-6.72)). The results confirm the benefit of statin treatment in reducing CHD mortality, but suggest that FH patients with pre-existing CHD and women with FH may not be treated adequately. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

2010-09-01

The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986-2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D-2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.

Attribution of Disturbances Causing Tree Mortality for the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Xu, C.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

Broad-scale tree mortality has been frequently reported and documented to increase with warming climate and human activities. However, there is so far no general method to quantify the relative contributions of different disturbances on observed broad-scale tree mortality. In this study, we presented a framework to investigate the contribution of various disturbances causing tree mortality for 2000-2014 in the continental US. Our work is based on the high-resolution forest-loss data developed by Hansen et al. (2013). Firstly, fire-driven mortality was determined using the data from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Secondly, a landscape-pattern-recognition approach focusing on the differences of boundary complexity caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances was developed to attribute harvest-driven mortality patches. Then, a drought threshold was determined through conducting an intensive literature survey for attribution of drought-driven mortality. Our results showed that we can correctly attribute 85% harvest-driven mortality as compared to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Based on Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), our literature survey suggests that most mortality events happened at extreme drought (37.7%), then severe (31.4%) and moderate (23.4%) drought. In total, 92.6% of drought-induced mortality events observed during 2000-2014 occurred at drought conditions of moderate or worse with corresponding ESI values ranging from -0.9 -2.49. Therefore, -0.9 will be used as the threshold to attribute drought-driven tree mortality. Overall, these results imply a great potential for using these methods to identify and attribute disturbances driving tree death at broad spatial scales.

Lung, liver and bone cancer mortality after plutonium exposure in beagle dogs and nuclear workers.

PubMed

Wilson, Dulaney A; Mohr, Lawrence C; Frey, G Donald; Lackland, Daniel; Hoel, David G

2010-01-01

The Mayak Production Association (MPA) worker registry has shown evidence of plutonium-induced health effects. Workers were potentially exposed to plutonium nitrate [(239)Pu(NO(3))(4)] and plutonium dioxide ((239)PuO(2)). Studies of plutonium-induced health effects in animal models can complement human studies by providing more specific data than is possible in human observational studies. Lung, liver, and bone cancer mortality rate ratios in the MPA worker cohort were compared to those seen in beagle dogs, and models of the excess relative risk of lung, liver, and bone cancer mortality from the MPA worker cohort were applied to data from life-span studies of beagle dogs. The lung cancer mortality rate ratios in beagle dogs are similar to those seen in the MPA worker cohort. At cumulative doses less than 3 Gy, the liver cancer mortality rate ratios in the MPA worker cohort are statistically similar to those in beagle dogs. Bone cancer mortality only occurred in MPA workers with doses over 10 Gy. In dogs given (239)Pu, the adjusted excess relative risk of lung cancer mortality per Gy was 1.32 (95% CI 0.56-3.22). The liver cancer mortality adjusted excess relative risk per Gy was 55.3 (95% CI 23.0-133.1). The adjusted excess relative risk of bone cancer mortality per Gy(2) was 1,482 (95% CI 566.0-5686). Models of lung cancer mortality based on MPA worker data with additional covariates adequately described the beagle dog data, while the liver and bone cancer models were less successful.

Risk of mortality, cancer incidence, and stroke in a population potentially exposed to cadmium.

PubMed

Elliott, P; Arnold, R; Cockings, S; Eaton, N; Järup, L; Jones, J; Quinn, M; Rosato, M; Thornton, I; Toledano, M; Tristan, E; Wakefield, J

2000-02-01

To follow up mortality and cancer incidence in a cohort potentially exposed to cadmium and to perform a geographical (ecological) analysis to further assess the health effects of potential exposure to cadmium. The English village of Shipham has very high concentrations of cadmium in the soil. A previous cohort study of residents of Shipham in 1939 showed overall mortality below that expected, but a 40% excess of mortality from stroke. This study extends the follow up of the cohort for mortality to 1997, and includes an analysis of cancer incidence from 1971 to 1992, and a geographical study of mortality and cancer incidence. Standardised mortality and incidence ratios (SMRs and SIRs) were estimated with regional reference rates. Comparisons were made with the nearby village of Hutton. All cause cohort mortality was lower than expected in both villages, although there was excess cancer incidence in both Shipham (SIR 167, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 106 to 250) and Hutton (SIR 167, 95% CI 105 to 253). There was an excess of mortality from hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, and nephritis and nephrosis, of borderline significance, in Shipham (SMR 128, 95% CI 99 to 162). In the geographical study, all cause mortality in Shipham was also lower than expected (SMR 84, 95% CI 71 to 100). There was an excess in genitourinary cancers in both Shipham (SIR 160, 95% CI 107 to 239) and Hutton (SIR 153, 95% CI 122 to 192). No clear evidence of health effects from possible exposure to cadmium in Shipham was found despite the extremely high concentrations of cadmium in the soil.

The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

PubMed Central

Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

2011-01-01

Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus. PMID:21757099

The big ban on bituminous coal sales revisited: Serious epidemics and pronounced trends feign excess mortality previously attributed to heavy black-smoke exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittmaack, K.

The effect of banning bituminous coal sales on the black-smoke concentration and the mortality rates in Dublin, Ireland, has been analyzed recently. Based on the application of standard epidemiological procedures, the authors concluded that, as a result of the ban, the total nontrauma death rate was reduced strongly (-8.0% unadjusted, -5.7% adjusted). The purpose of this study was to reanalyze the original data with the aim of clarifying the three most important aspects of the study, (a) the effect of epidemics, (b) the trends in mortality rates due to advances in public health care, and (c) the correlation between mortalitymore » rates and black-smoke concentrations. Particular attention has been devoted to a detailed evaluation of the time dependence of mortality rates, stratified by season. Death rates were found to be strongly enhanced during three severe pre-ban winter-spring epidemics. The cardiovascular mortality rates exhibited a continuous decrease over the whole study period, in general accordance with trends in the rest of Ireland. These two effects can fully account for the previously identified apparent correlation between reduced mortality and the very pronounced ban-related lowering of the black-smoke concentration. The third important finding was that in nonepidemic pre-ban seasons even large changes in the concentration of black smoke had no detectable effect on mortality rates. The reanalysis suggests that epidemiological studies exploring the effect of ambient particulate matter on mortality require improved tools allowing proper adjustment for epidemics and trends.« less

Somatic hospital contacts, invasive cardiac procedures, and mortality from heart disease in patients with severe mental disorder.

PubMed

Laursen, Thomas Munk; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Agerbo, Esben; Gasse, Christiane; Mortensen, Preben Bo

2009-07-01

Excess mortality from heart disease is observed in patients with severe mental disorder. This excess mortality may be rooted in adverse effects of pharmacological or psychotropic treatment, lifestyle factors, or inadequate somatic care. To examine whether persons with severe mental disorder, defined as persons admitted to a psychiatric hospital with bipolar affective disorder, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophrenia, are in contact with hospitals and undergoing invasive procedures for heart disease to the same degree as the nonpsychiatric general population, and to determine whether they have higher mortality rates of heart disease. A population-based cohort of 4.6 million persons born in Denmark was followed up from 1994 to 2007. Rates of mortality, somatic contacts, and invasive procedures were estimated by survival analysis. Incidence rate ratios of heart disease admissions and heart disease mortality as well as probability of invasive cardiac procedures. The incidence rate ratio of heart disease contacts in persons with severe mental disorder compared with the rate for the nonpsychiatric general population was only slightly increased, at 1.11 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.14). In contrast, their excess mortality rate ratio from heart disease was 2.90 (95% confidence interval, 2.71-3.10). Five years after the first contact for somatic heart disease, the risk of dying of heart disease was 8.26% for persons with severe mental disorder (aged <70 years) but only 2.86% in patients with heart disease who had never been admitted to a psychiatric hospital. The fraction undergoing invasive procedures within 5 years was reduced among patients with severe mental disorder as compared with the nonpsychiatric general population (7.04% vs 12.27%, respectively). Individuals with severe mental disorder had only negligible excess rates of contact for heart disease. Given their excess mortality from heart disease and lower rates of invasive procedures after first contact, it would seem that the treatment for heart disease offered to these individuals in Denmark is neither sufficiently efficient nor sufficiently intensive. This undertreatment may explain part of their excess mortality.

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

PubMed

Lemaitre, Magali; Carrat, Fabrice; Rey, Grégoire; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cécile

2012-01-01

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2-1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.

Excess Mortality in Patients Diagnosed With Hypothyroidism: A Nationwide Cohort Study of Singletons and Twins

PubMed Central

Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Almind, Dorthe; Christensen, Kaare; Brix, Thomas Heiberg

2013-01-01

Background: Although hypothyroidism is associated with increased morbidity, an association with increased mortality is still debated. Our objective was to investigate, at a nationwide level, whether a diagnosis of hypothyroidism influences mortality. Methods: In an observational cohort study from January 1, 1978 until December 31, 2008 using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers, 3587 singletons and 682 twins diagnosed with hypothyroidism were identified. Hypothyroid individuals were matched 1:4 with nonhypothyroid controls with respect to age and gender and followed over a mean period of 5.6 years (range 0–30 years). The hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was calculated using Cox regression analyses. Comorbidity was evaluated using the Charlson score (CS). Results: In singletons with hypothyroidism, the mortality risk was increased (HR 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41–1.65). Although the effect attenuated, hypothyroidism remained associated with increased mortality when evaluating subjects with a CS = 0 (HR 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05–1.44). In twin pairs discordant for hypothyroidism, the hypothyroid twin had excess mortality compared with the corresponding euthyroid cotwin (HR 1.40; 95% CI 0.95–2.05). However, after stratifying for zygosity, hypothyroidism was associated with excess mortality in dizygotic twin pairs (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.00–2.58), whereas the association attenuated in monozygotic pairs (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.55–2.05). Conclusions: Hypothyroidism is associated with an excess mortality of around 50%, which to some degree is explained by comorbidity. In addition, the finding of an association between hypothyroidism and mortality within disease discordant dizygotic but not monozygotic twin pairs indicates that the association between hypothyroidism and mortality is also influenced by genetic confounding. PMID:23365121

A systematic review of post-deployment injury-related mortality among military personnel deployed to conflict zones.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; Marin, Roberto E; Grier, Tyson L; Jones, Bruce H

2009-07-13

This paper reports on a systematic review of the literature on the post-conflict injury-related mortality of service members who deployed to conflict zones. Literature databases, reference lists of articles, agencies, investigators, and other sources were examined to find studies comparing injury-related mortality of military veterans who had served in conflict zones with that of contemporary veterans who had not served in conflict zones. Injury-related mortality was defined as a cause of death indicated by International Classification of Diseases E-codes E800 to E999 (external causes) or subgroupings within this range of codes. Twenty studies met the review criteria; all involved veterans serving during either the Vietnam or Persian Gulf conflict. Meta-analysis indicated that, compared with non-conflict-zone veterans, injury-related mortality was elevated for veterans serving in Vietnam (summary mortality rate ratio (SMRR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.08-1.46) during 9 to 18 years of follow-up. Similarly, injury-related mortality was elevated for veterans serving in the Persian Gulf War (SMRR = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.16-1.37) during 3 to 8 years of follow-up. Much of the excess mortality among conflict-zone veterans was associated with motor vehicle events. The excess mortality decreased over time. Hypotheses to account for the excess mortality in conflict-zone veterans included post-traumatic stress, coping behaviors such as substance abuse, ill-defined diseases and symptoms, lower survivability in injury events due to conflict-zone comorbidities, altered perceptions of risk, and/or selection processes leading to the deployment of individuals who were risk-takers. Further research on the etiology of the excess mortality in conflict-zone veterans is warranted to develop appropriate interventions.

A systematic review of post-deployment injury-related mortality among military personnel deployed to conflict zones

PubMed Central

Knapik, Joseph J; Marin, Roberto E; Grier, Tyson L; Jones, Bruce H

2009-01-01

Background This paper reports on a systematic review of the literature on the post-conflict injury-related mortality of service members who deployed to conflict zones. Methods Literature databases, reference lists of articles, agencies, investigators, and other sources were examined to find studies comparing injury-related mortality of military veterans who had served in conflict zones with that of contemporary veterans who had not served in conflict zones. Injury-related mortality was defined as a cause of death indicated by International Classification of Diseases E-codes E800 to E999 (external causes) or subgroupings within this range of codes. Results Twenty studies met the review criteria; all involved veterans serving during either the Vietnam or Persian Gulf conflict. Meta-analysis indicated that, compared with non-conflict-zone veterans, injury-related mortality was elevated for veterans serving in Vietnam (summary mortality rate ratio (SMRR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.08–1.46) during 9 to 18 years of follow-up. Similarly, injury-related mortality was elevated for veterans serving in the Persian Gulf War (SMRR = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.16–1.37) during 3 to 8 years of follow-up. Much of the excess mortality among conflict-zone veterans was associated with motor vehicle events. The excess mortality decreased over time. Hypotheses to account for the excess mortality in conflict-zone veterans included post-traumatic stress, coping behaviors such as substance abuse, ill-defined diseases and symptoms, lower survivability in injury events due to conflict-zone comorbidities, altered perceptions of risk, and/or selection processes leading to the deployment of individuals who were risk-takers. Conclusion Further research on the etiology of the excess mortality in conflict-zone veterans is warranted to develop appropriate interventions. PMID:19594931

Cancer incidence attributable to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012

PubMed Central

Brenner, Darren R.; Poirier, Abbey E.; Grundy, Anne; Khandwala, Farah; McFadden, Alison; Friedenreich, Christine M.

2017-01-01

Background: Excess body weight has been consistently associated with colorectal, breast, endometrial, esophageal, gall bladder, pancreatic and kidney cancers. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the proportion of total and site-specific cancers attributable to excess body weight in adults in Alberta in 2012. Methods: We estimated the proportions of attributable cancers using population attributable risk. Risk estimates were obtained from recent meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence estimates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. People with a body mass index of 25.00-29.99 kg/m2 and of 30 kg/m2 or more were categorized as overweight and obese, respectively. Results: About 14%-47% of men and 9%-35% of women in Alberta were classified as either overweight or obese; the proportion increased with increasing age for both sexes. We estimate that roughly 17% and 12% of obesity-related cancers among men and women, respectively, could be attributed to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012. The heaviest absolute burden in terms of number of cases was seen for breast cancer among women and for colorectal cancer among men. Overall, about 5% of all cancers in adults in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to excess body weight in 2000-2003. Interpretation: Excess body weight contributes to a substantial proportion of cases of cancers associated with overweight and obesity annually in Alberta. Strategies to improve energy imbalance and reduce the proportion of obese and overweight Albertans may have a notable impact on cancer incidence in the future. PMID:28455439

Cancer incidence attributable to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012.

PubMed

Brenner, Darren R; Poirier, Abbey E; Grundy, Anne; Khandwala, Farah; McFadden, Alison; Friedenreich, Christine M

2017-04-28

Excess body weight has been consistently associated with colorectal, breast, endometrial, esophageal, gall bladder, pancreatic and kidney cancers. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the proportion of total and site-specific cancers attributable to excess body weight in adults in Alberta in 2012. We estimated the proportions of attributable cancers using population attributable risk. Risk estimates were obtained from recent meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence estimates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. People with a body mass index of 25.00-29.99 kg/m2 and of 30 kg/m2 or more were categorized as overweight and obese, respectively. About 14%-47% of men and 9%-35% of women in Alberta were classified as either overweight or obese; the proportion increased with increasing age for both sexes. We estimate that roughly 17% and 12% of obesity-related cancers among men and women, respectively, could be attributed to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012. The heaviest absolute burden in terms of number of cases was seen for breast cancer among women and for colorectal cancer among men. Overall, about 5% of all cancers in adults in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to excess body weight in 2000-2003. Excess body weight contributes to a substantial proportion of cases of cancers associated with overweight and obesity annually in Alberta. Strategies to improve energy imbalance and reduce the proportion of obese and overweight Albertans may have a notable impact on cancer incidence in the future. Copyright 2017, Joule Inc. or its licensors.

The Long-Term Impact of Military Service on Health: Evidence from World War II and Korean War Veterans.

PubMed

Bedard, Kelly; Deschênes, Olivier

2006-03-01

During the World War II and Korean War era, the U.S. military freely distributed cigarettes to overseas personnel and provided low-cost tobacco products on domestic military bases. In fact, even today the military continues to sell subsidized tobacco products on its bases. Using a variety of instrumental variables approaches to deal with nonrandom selection into the military and into smoking, we provide substantial evidence that cohorts with higher military participation rates subsequently suffered more premature mortality. More importantly, we show that a large fraction, 35 to 79 percent, of the excess veteran deaths due to heart disease and lung cancer are attributable to military-induced smoking.

The Estonian study of Chernobyl cleanup workers: II. Incidence of cancer and mortality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rahu, M.; Tekkel, M.; Veidebaum, T.

A cohort of 4,472 men from Estonia who had participated in the cleanup activities in the Chernobyl area sometime between 1986 and 1991 and were followed through 1993 was analyzed with respect to the incidence of cancer and mortality. Incidence and mortality in the cleanup workers were assessed relative to national rates. No increases were found in all cancers (25 incident cases compared to 26.5 expected) or in leukemia (no cases observed, 1.0 expected). Incidence did not differ statistically significantly from expectation for any individual cancer site or type, though lung cancer and non-Hodgkin`s lymphoma both occurred slightly more oftenmore » than expected. A total of 144 deaths were observed [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.82-1.14] during an average of 6.5 years of follow-up. Twenty-eight deaths (19.4%) were suicides (SMR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.01-2.19). Exposure to ionizing radiation while at Chernobyl has not caused a detectable increase in the incidence of cancer among cleanup workers from Estonia. At least for the short follow-up period, diseases directly attributable to radiation appear to be of relatively minor importance when compared with the substantial excess of deaths due to suicide. 28 refs., 3 tabs.« less

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders: a multilevel intervention framework and priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas

PubMed Central

Liu, Nancy H.; Daumit, Gail L.; Dua, Tarun; Aquila, Ralph; Charlson, Fiona; Cuijpers, Pim; Druss, Benjamin; Dudek, Kenn; Freeman, Melvyn; Fujii, Chiyo; Gaebel, Wolfgang; Hegerl, Ulrich; Levav, Itzhak; Munk Laursen, Thomas; Ma, Hong; Maj, Mario; Elena Medina‐Mora, Maria; Nordentoft, Merete; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Pratt, Karen; Prince, Martin; Rangaswamy, Thara; Shiers, David; Susser, Ezra; Thornicroft, Graham; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Fekadu Wassie, Abe; Whiteford, Harvey; Saxena, Shekhar

2017-01-01

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders (SMD) is a major public health challenge that warrants action. The number and scope of truly tested interventions in this area remain limited, and strategies for implementation and scaling up of programmes with a strong evidence base are scarce. Furthermore, the majority of available interventions focus on a single or an otherwise limited number of risk factors. Here we present a multilevel model highlighting risk factors for excess mortality in persons with SMD at the individual, health system and socio‐environmental levels. Informed by that model, we describe a comprehensive framework that may be useful for designing, implementing and evaluating interventions and programmes to reduce excess mortality in persons with SMD. This framework includes individual‐focused, health system‐focused, and community level and policy‐focused interventions. Incorporating lessons learned from the multilevel model of risk and the comprehensive intervention framework, we identify priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas. PMID:28127922

Estimating the asbestos-related lung cancer burden from mesothelioma mortality

PubMed Central

McCormack, V; Peto, J; Byrnes, G; Straif, K; Boffetta, P

2012-01-01

Background: Quantifying the asbestos-related lung cancer burden is difficult in the presence of this disease's multiple causes. We explore two methods to estimate this burden using mesothelioma deaths as a proxy for asbestos exposure. Methods: From the follow-up of 55 asbestos cohorts, we estimated ratios of (i) absolute number of asbestos-related lung cancers to mesothelioma deaths; (ii) excess lung cancer relative risk (%) to mesothelioma mortality per 1000 non-asbestos-related deaths. Results: Ratios varied by asbestos type; there were a mean 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.5, 1.0) asbestos-related lung cancers per mesothelioma death in crocidolite cohorts (n=6 estimates), 6.1 (3.6, 10.5) in chrysotile (n=16), 4.0 (2.8, 5.9) in amosite (n=4) and 1.9 (1.4, 2.6) in mixed asbestos fibre cohorts (n=31). In a population with 2 mesothelioma deaths per 1000 deaths at ages 40–84 years (e.g., US men), the estimated lung cancer population attributable fraction due to mixed asbestos was estimated to be 4.0%. Conclusion: All types of asbestos fibres kill at least twice as many people through lung cancer than through mesothelioma, except for crocidolite. For chrysotile, widely consumed today, asbestos-related lung cancers cannot be robustly estimated from few mesothelioma deaths and the latter cannot be used to infer no excess risk of lung or other cancers. PMID:22233924

Contributors to Excess Infant Mortality in the U.S. South

PubMed Central

Hirai, Ashley H.; Sappenfield, William M.; Kogan, Michael D.; Barfield, Wanda D.; Goodman, David A.; Ghandour, Reem M.; Lu, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Background Infant mortality rates (IMRs) are disproportionally high in the U.S. South; however, the proximate contributors that could inform regional action remain unclear. Purpose To quantify the components of excess infant mortality in the U.S. South by maternal race/ethnicity, underlying cause of death, and gestational age. Methods U.S. Period Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Files 2007–2009 (analyzed in 2013) were used to compare IMRs between the South (U.S. Public Health Regions IV and VI) and all other regions combined. Results Compared to other regions, there were 1.18 excess infant deaths per 1000 live births in the South, representing about 1600 excess infant deaths annually. New Mexico and Texas did not have elevated IMRs relative to other regions; excess death rates among other states ranged from 0.62 per 1000 in Kentucky to 3.82 per 1000 in Mississippi. Racial/ethnic compositional differences, generally the greater proportion of non-Hispanic black births in the South, explained 59% of the overall regional difference; the remainder was mostly explained by higher IMRs among non-Hispanic whites. The leading causes of excess Southern infant mortality were sudden unexpected infant death (SUID; 36%, range=12% in Florida to 90% in Kentucky) and preterm-related death (22%, range=−71% in Kentucky to 51% in North Carolina). Higher rates of preterm birth, predominantly <34 weeks, accounted for most of the preterm contribution. Conclusions To reduce excess Southern infant mortality, comprehensive strategies addressing SUID and preterm birth prevention for both non-Hispanic black and white births are needed, with state-level findings used to tailor state-specific efforts. PMID:24512860

Regional-level estimation of expected years of life lost attributable to overweight and obesity among Mexican adults.

PubMed

Murillo-Zamora, Efrén; García-Ceballos, Raúl; Delgado-Enciso, Iván; Garza-Guajardo, Raquel; Barboza-Quintana, Oralia; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Irám P; Mendoza-Cano, Oliver

2016-01-01

Excess body weight has become a major public health problem worldwide, and the burden of overweight and obesity was calculated in this work from a health economics perspective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to overweight and obesity among males and females aged 20 years and older using years of life lost (YLL) and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYLL), and to rank the leading causes of premature death. A cross-sectional study took place (2010-2014) and 6,054 deaths were analyzed. Thirteen basic causes of death associated with overweight or obesity were included. The population attributable fraction (PAF), YLL, and ASYLL were calculated. The overall burden attributable to overweight and obesity was 36,087 YLL, and the estimated ASYLL per 10,000 persons was 1,098 and 1,029 in males and females, respectively. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the main cause of premature death (males, 968 ASYLL; females, 772 ASYLL). Overweight and obesity are major risk factors of chronic diseases that are main causes of premature death in the study population. Strategies for preventing overweight and obesity may decrease the incidence and mortality associated with these non-communicable diseases. ASYLL seems to be an indicator that is particularly well adapted to decision-making in public health.

Mortality among discharged psychiatric patients in Florence, Italy.

PubMed

Meloni, Debora; Miccinesi, Guido; Bencini, Andrea; Conte, Michele; Crocetti, Emanuele; Zappa, Marco; Ferrara, Maurizio

2006-10-01

Psychiatric disorders involve an increased risk of mortality. In Italy psychiatric services are community based, and hospitalization is mostly reserved for patients with acute illness. This study examined mortality risk in a cohort of psychiatric inpatients for 16 years after hospital discharge to assess the association of excess mortality from natural or unnatural causes with clinical and sociodemographic variables and time from first admission. At the end of 2002 mortality and cause of death were determined for all patients (N=845) who were admitted during 1987 to the eight psychiatric units active in Florence. The mortality risk of psychiatric patients was compared with that of the general population of the region of Tuscany by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson multivariate analyses of the observed-to-expected ratio for natural and unnatural deaths were conducted. The SMR for the sample of psychiatric patients was threefold higher than that for the general population (SMR=3.0; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]=2.7-3.4). Individuals younger than 45 years were at higher risk (SMR=11.0; 95 percent CI 8.0-14.9). The SMR for deaths from natural causes was 2.6 (95 percent CI=2.3-2.9), and for deaths from unnatural causes it was 13.0 (95 percent CI=10.1-13.6). For deaths from unnatural causes, the mortality excess was primarily limited to the first years after the first admission. For deaths from natural causes, excess mortality was more stable during the follow-up period. Prevention of deaths from unnatural causes among psychiatric patients may require promotion of earlier follow-up after discharge. Improving prevention and treatment of somatic diseases of psychiatric patients is important to reduce excess mortality from natural causes.

Mortality in women with turner syndrome in Great Britain: a national cohort study.

PubMed

Schoemaker, Minouk J; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Higgins, Craig D; Wright, Alan F; Jacobs, Patricia A

2008-12-01

Turner syndrome is characterized by complete or partial X chromosome monosomy. It is associated with substantial morbidity, but mortality risks and causes of death are not well described. Our objective was to investigate mortality and causes of death in women with Turner syndrome. We constructed a cohort of women diagnosed with Turner syndrome at almost all cytogenetic centers in Great Britain and followed them for mortality. A total of 3,439 women diagnosed between 1959-2002 were followed to the end of 2006. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risks were evaluated. In total, 296 deaths occurred. Mortality was significantly raised overall [SMR = 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.7-3.4] and was raised for nearly all major causes of death. Circulatory disease accounted for 41% of excess mortality, with greatest SMRs for aortic aneurysm (SMR = 23.6; 95% CI = 13.8-37.8) and aortic valve disease (SMR = 17.9; 95% CI = 4.9-46.0), but SMRs were also raised for other circulatory conditions. Other major contributors to raised mortality included congenital cardiac anomalies, diabetes, epilepsy, liver disease, noninfectious enteritis and colitis, renal and ureteric disease, and pneumonia. Absolute excess risks of death were considerably greater at older than younger ages. Mortality in women with Turner syndrome is 3-fold higher than in the general population, is raised for almost all major causes of death, and is raised at all ages, with the greatest excess mortality in older adulthood. These risks need consideration in follow-up and counseling of patients and add to reasons for continued follow-up and preventive measures in adult, not just pediatric, care.

Occupational exposure to ionising radiation and mortality among workers of the former Spanish Nuclear Energy Board.

PubMed Central

Rodríguez Artalejo, F; Castaño Lara, S; de Andrés Manzano, B; García Ferruelo, M; Iglesias Martín, L; Calero, J R

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Firstly, to ascertain whether mortality among workers of the former Spanish Nuclear Energy Board (Junta de Energía Nuclear-JEN) was higher than that for the Spanish population overall; and secondly, if this were so, to ascertain whether this difference was associated with exposure to ionising radiation. METHODS: A retrospective follow up of a cohort of 5657 workers was carried out for the period 1954-92. Cohort mortality was compared with that for the Spanish population overall, with standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for sex, age, and calendar period. Also, Poisson models were used to analyse mortality from lung cancer in the cohort by level of exposure to ionising radiation. RESULTS: Workers' median and mean cumulative exposures were 4.04 and 11.42 mSv, respectively. Mean annual exposure was 1.33 mSv. Excess mortality due to bone tumours was found for the cohort as a whole (six deaths observed; SMR 2.95; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.08 to 6.43). Among miners, excess mortality was found for non-malignant respiratory diseases (SMR 2.94; 95% CI 2.27 to 3.75), and for lung cancer bordering on statistical significance (SMR 1.50; 95% CI 0.96 to 2.23; P = 0.055). Relative risks of dying of lung cancer from ionising radiation in the dose quartiles 2, 3, and 4 versus the lowest dose quartile, were 1.00, 1.64, and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Excess mortality from lung cancer was found among JEN miners. Nevertheless, no clear relation was found between mortality from lung cancer and level of exposure to ionising radiation in the JEN cohort. Continued follow up of the cohort is required to confirm excess mortality from bone tumours. PMID:9155782

Occupational exposure to ionising radiation and mortality among workers of the former Spanish Nuclear Energy Board.

PubMed

Rodríguez Artalejo, F; Castaño Lara, S; de Andrés Manzano, B; García Ferruelo, M; Iglesias Martín, L; Calero, J R

1997-03-01

Firstly, to ascertain whether mortality among workers of the former Spanish Nuclear Energy Board (Junta de Energía Nuclear-JEN) was higher than that for the Spanish population overall; and secondly, if this were so, to ascertain whether this difference was associated with exposure to ionising radiation. A retrospective follow up of a cohort of 5657 workers was carried out for the period 1954-92. Cohort mortality was compared with that for the Spanish population overall, with standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for sex, age, and calendar period. Also, Poisson models were used to analyse mortality from lung cancer in the cohort by level of exposure to ionising radiation. Workers' median and mean cumulative exposures were 4.04 and 11.42 mSv, respectively. Mean annual exposure was 1.33 mSv. Excess mortality due to bone tumours was found for the cohort as a whole (six deaths observed; SMR 2.95; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.08 to 6.43). Among miners, excess mortality was found for non-malignant respiratory diseases (SMR 2.94; 95% CI 2.27 to 3.75), and for lung cancer bordering on statistical significance (SMR 1.50; 95% CI 0.96 to 2.23; P = 0.055). Relative risks of dying of lung cancer from ionising radiation in the dose quartiles 2, 3, and 4 versus the lowest dose quartile, were 1.00, 1.64, and 0.94, respectively. Excess mortality from lung cancer was found among JEN miners. Nevertheless, no clear relation was found between mortality from lung cancer and level of exposure to ionising radiation in the JEN cohort. Continued follow up of the cohort is required to confirm excess mortality from bone tumours.

[Study on smoking attributed death and effects of smoking cessation in residents aged 35-79 years in Tianjin, 2016].

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, D Z; Zhang, H; Xu, Z L; Xue, X D; Jiang, G H

2017-11-10

Objective: To analyze the influence of smoking on deaths in residents aged 35-79 years and the effects of smoking cessation in Tianjin. Methods: The data of 39 499 death cases aged 35-79 years in 2016 in Tianjin were collected, the risks for deaths caused by smoking related diseases and excess deaths as well as effects of smoking cessation were analyzed after adjusting 5 year old age group, education level and marital status. Results: Among the 39 499 deaths cases, 1 589 (13.56%) were caused by smoking, the percentage of the excess mortality of lung cancer caused by smoking was highest (47.60%); the risk of death due to lung cancer in smokers was 2.75 times higher than that in non-smokers (95 %CI : 2.47-3.06). Among the female deaths, 183 (7.29%) were caused by smoking, the percentage of the excess mortality of lung cancer was highest (28.90%); and the risk of death of lung cancer in smokers was 4.04 times higher than that in non-smokers (95 %CI : 3.49-4.68). The OR for disease in ex-smokers was 0.80 compared with 1.00 in smokers (95 %CI : 0.72-0.90). The OR in males who had quitted smoking for ≥10 years was lower (0.74, 95 %CI : 0.63-0.86) than that in those who had quitted smoking for 1-9 years (0.85, 95 %CI : 0.74-0.98), but the difference was not significant. Conclusion: Smoking is one of the most important risk factors for deaths in residents in Tianjin. Smoking cessation can benefit people's health.

Proximate Sources of Population Sex Imbalance in India

PubMed Central

OSTER, EMILY

2009-01-01

There is a population sex imbalance in India. Despite a consensus that this imbalance is due to excess female mortality, the specific source of this excess mortality remains poorly understood. I use microdata on child survival in India to analyze the proximate sources of the sex imbalance. I address two questions: when in life does the sex imbalance arise, and what health or nutritional investments are specifically responsible for its appearance? I present a new methodology that uses microdata on child survival. This methodology explicitly takes into account both the possibility of naturally occurring sex differences in survival and possible differences between investments in their importance for survival. Consistent with existing literature, I find significant excess female mortality in childhood, particularly between the ages of 1 and 5, and argue that the sex imbalance that exists by age 5 is large enough to explain virtually the entire imbalance in the population. Within this age group, sex differences in vaccinations explain between 20% and 30% of excess female mortality, malnutrition explains an additional 20%, and differences in treatment for illness play a smaller role. Together, these investments account for approximately 50% of the sex imbalance in mortality in India. PMID:21305396

Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Chen, Zhengming; Peto, Richard; Zhou, Maigeng; Iona, Andri; Smith, Margaret; Yang, Ling; Guo, Yu; Chen, Yiping; Bian, Zheng; Lancaster, Garry; Sherliker, Paul; Pang, Shutao; Wang, Hao; Su, Hua; Wu, Ming; Wu, Xianping; Chen, Junshi; Collins, Rory; Li, Liming

2015-10-10

Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220,000 men in about 1991 at ages 40-79 years (first study) and 210,000 men and 300,000 women in about 2006 at ages 35-74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991-99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006-14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24-1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53-1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09-1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16-1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40-79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79-2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11-16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78-5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66-2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30,943, 3265/62,246, 2339/97,344, and 1068/111,933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40-1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40-79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840,000 male, 130,000 female) deaths in China. Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC. Copyright © 2015 Chen et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Contrasting male and female trends in tobacco-attributed mortality in China: evidence from successive nationwide prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhengming; Peto, Richard; Zhou, Maigeng; Iona, Andri; Smith, Margaret; Yang, Ling; Guo, Yu; Chen, Yiping; Bian, Zheng; Lancaster, Garry; Sherliker, Paul; Pang, Shutao; Wang, Hao; Su, Hua; Wu, Ming; Wu, Xianping; Chen, Junshi; Collins, Rory; Li, Liming

2015-01-01

Summary Background Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Methods Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220 000 men in about 1991 at ages 40–79 years (first study) and 210 000 men and 300 000 women in about 2006 at ages 35–74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991–99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006–14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Findings Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 [95% CI 1·24–1·41] vs 1·65 [1·53–1·79]; rural: RR 1·13 [1·09–1·17] vs 1·22 [1·16–1·29]), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40–79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79–2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11–16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78–5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66–2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30 943, 3265/62 246, 2339/97 344, and 1068/111 933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40–1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40–79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840 000 male, 130 000 female) deaths in China. Interpretation Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Funding Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC PMID:26466050

Bereavement, multimorbidity and mortality: a population-based study using bereavement as an indicator of mental stress.

PubMed

Prior, A; Fenger-Grøn, M; Davydow, D S; Olsen, J; Li, J; Guldin, M-B; Vestergaard, M

2018-07-01

Mental stress is associated with higher mortality, but it remains controversial whether the association is causal or a consequence of a higher physical disease burden in those with a high mental stress load. Understanding causality is important when developing targeted interventions. We aimed to estimate the effect of mental stress on mortality by performing a 'natural' experiment using spousal bereavement as a disease-independent mental stressor. We followed a population-based matched cohort, including all individuals in Denmark bereaved in 1997-2014, for 17 years. Prospectively recorded register data were obtained for civil and vital status, 39 mental and physical diagnoses, and socioeconomic factors. In total, 389 316 bereaved individuals were identified and 137 247 died during follow-up. Bereaved individuals had higher all-cause mortality than non-bereaved references in the entire study period. The relative mortality in the bereaved individuals was highest shortly after the loss (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), first month: 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-2.63; aHR, 6-12 months: 1.38, 95% CI 1.34-1.42). The excess mortality rate associated with bereavement rose with increasing number of physical diseases (1.33 v. 7.00 excess death per 1000 person-months for individuals with 0 v. ⩾3 physical conditions during the first month) and was exacerbated by the presence of mental illness. The excess mortality among bereaved individuals was primarily due to death from natural causes. Bereavement was associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality, even after adjustment for morbidities, which suggests that mental stress may play a causal role in excess mortality.

Modeling regional and gender impacts of the 2003 summer heatwave in excessive mortality in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nogueira, Paulo J.; Santos, Filipe D.; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Gouveia, Célia; Santo, Fátima E.

2010-05-01

This work evaluates the impact of the 2003 European heatwave on excessive human mortality in Portugal, a country that presents a relatively high level of exposure to heatwave events. To estimate the fortnight expected mortality per district between 30 July and 15 August we have used five distinct baseline periods of mortality. We have opted to use the period that spans between 2000 and 2004, as it corresponds to a good compromise between a relatively long period (to guarantee some stability) and a sufficiently short period (to guarantee the similarity of the underlying population structure). Our findings show a total of 2399 excessive deaths are estimated in continental Portugal, which implies an increase of 58% over the expected deaths for those two weeks. When these values are split by gender, it is seen that women increase (79%), was considerably higher than that recorded for men (41%). The increment of mortality due to this heatwave was detected for all the 18 districts of the country, but its magnitude was significantly higher in the inner districts close to the Spanish border. When we split the regional impact by gender all districts reveal significant mortality increments for women, while the impact in men's excess deaths is not significant over 3 districts. Several temperature derived indices were used and evaluated in their capacity to explain, at the regional level, the excessive mortality (ratio between observed and expected deaths) by gender. The best relationship was found for the total exceedance of extreme days, an index combining the length of the heatwave and its intensity. Both variables hold a linear relationship with r = 0.79 for women and a poorer adjustment (r = 0.50) for men. Additionally, availability of mortality data split by age also allowed obtaining detailed information on the structure of the population in risk, namely by showing that statistically significant increments are concentrated in the last three age classes (45-64, 65-74 and 75 or more). A finer approach is relevant for prevention strategies, since it allows identifying better the target population of any preventive strategy regional and national authorities may be interested to implement. Trigo, R.M., et al. (2009), Evaluating the impact of extreme temperature based indices in the 2003 heatwave excessive mortality in Portugal. Environ. Sci. Policy doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2009.07.007

Mortality among a cohort of uranium mill workers: an update

PubMed Central

Pinkerton, L; Bloom, T; Hein, M; Ward, E

2004-01-01

Aims: To evaluate the mortality experience of 1484 men employed in seven uranium mills in the Colorado Plateau for at least one year on or after 1 January 1940. Methods: Vital status was updated through 1998, and life table analyses were conducted. Results: Mortality from all causes and all cancers was less than expected based on US mortality rates. A statistically significant increase in non-malignant respiratory disease mortality and non-significant increases in mortality from lymphatic and haematopoietic malignancies other than leukaemia, lung cancer, and chronic renal disease were observed. The excess in lymphatic and haematopoietic cancer mortality was due to an increase in mortality from lymphosarcoma and reticulosarcoma and Hodgkin's disease. Within the category of non-malignant respiratory disease, mortality from emphysema and pneumoconioses and other respiratory disease was increased. Mortality from lung cancer and emphysema was higher among workers hired prior to 1955 when exposures to uranium, silica, and vanadium were presumably higher. Mortality from these causes of death did not increase with employment duration. Conclusions: Although the observed excesses were consistent with our a priori hypotheses, positive trends with employment duration were not observed. Limitations included the small cohort size and limited power to detect a moderately increased risk for some outcomes of interest, the inability to estimate individual exposures, and the lack of smoking data. Because of these limitations, firm conclusions about the relation of the observed excesses in mortality and mill exposures are not possible. PMID:14691274

Mortality in a cohort of tannery workers.

PubMed Central

Montanaro, F; Ceppi, M; Demers, P A; Puntoni, R; Bonassi, S

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the mortality of a group of tannery workers. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 1244 workers (870 men and 374 women) employed at a chrome tannery between 1955 and 1988. A total of 36414 person-years of follow up was calculated (369 people had died). National and regional mortalities were used to estimate the expected numbers. RESULTS: All cause mortality was similar to that of the general population. The most remarkable excess was for bladder cancer (observed 10, standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 242, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 116 to 446). An excess of colorectal cancer (observed 17, SMR 180, 95% CI 105 to 288) was also found, based on an increased risk of both colon (SMR 166) and rectal cancer (SMR 206). No recognisable patterns emerged from the analyses by years since first employment, calendar year of hire, or lagging exposures. CONCLUSIONS: The increased mortality from bladder cancer is likely due to exposure to benzidine based leather dyes. If the apparent excess of colorectal cancer is real, its causes are as yet unknown. PMID:9326162

[Geographical distribution of mortality caused by stomach, trachea, bronchi and lung malignant tumors in Chile].

PubMed

Icaza N, M Gloria; Núñez F, M Loreto; Torres A, Francisco J; Díaz S, Nora L; Várela G, David E

2007-11-01

Maps have played a critical role in public health since 1855, when John Snow associated a cholera outbreak with contaminated water source in London. After cardiovascular diseases, cancer is the second leading cause of death in Chile. Cancer was responsible for 22.7% of all deaths in 1997-2004 period. To describe the geographical distribution of stomach, trachea, bronchi and lung cancer mortality. Mortality statistics for the years 1997-2004, published by the National Statistics Institute and Chilean Ministry of Health, were used. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for sex and age quinquennium was calculated for 341 counties in the country. A hierarchical Bayesian analysis of Poisson regression models for SMR was performed. The maps were developed using adjusted SMR (or smoothed) by the Poisson model. There is an excess mortality caused by stomach cancer in south central Chile, from Teno to Valdivia. There is an excess mortality caused by trachea, bronchi and lung cancer in northern Chile, from Copiapó to Iquique. The geographical analysis of mortality caused by cancer shows cluster of counties with an excess risk. These areas should be considered for health care decision making and resource allocation.

'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79).

PubMed

Heuveline, P

1998-03-01

Estimates of mortality in Camabodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized.

Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cucunubá, Zulma M; Okuwoga, Omolade; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Nouvellet, Pierre

2016-01-27

The clinical outcomes associated with Chagas disease remain poorly understood. In addition to the burden of morbidity, the burden of mortality due to Trypanosoma cruzi infection can be substantial, yet its quantification has eluded rigorous scrutiny. This is partly due to considerable heterogeneity between studies, which can influence the resulting estimates. There is a pressing need for accurate estimates of mortality due to Chagas disease that can be used to improve mathematical modelling, burden of disease evaluations, and cost-effectiveness studies. A systematic literature review was conducted to select observational studies comparing mortality in populations with and without a diagnosis of Chagas disease using the PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and LILACS databases, without restrictions on language or date of publication. The primary outcome of interest was mortality (as all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, heart transplant or cardiovascular deaths). Data were analysed using a random-effects model to obtain the relative risk (RR) of mortality, the attributable risk percent (ARP), and the annual mortality rates (AMR). The statistic I(2) (proportion of variance in the meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity) was calculated. Sensitivity analyses and publication bias test were also conducted. Twenty five studies were selected for quantitative analysis, providing data on 10,638 patients, 53,346 patient-years of follow-up, and 2739 events. Pooled estimates revealed that Chagas disease patients have significantly higher AMR compared with non-Chagas disease patients (0.18 versus 0.10; RR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.49-2.03). Substantial heterogeneity was found among studies (I(2) = 67.3%). The ARP above background mortality was 42.5%. Through a sub-analysis patients were classified by clinical group (severe, moderate, asymptomatic). While RR did not differ significantly between clinical groups, important differences in AMR were found: AMR = 0.43 in Chagas vs. 0.29 in non-Chagas patients (RR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.21-1.62) in the severe group; AMR = 0.16 (Chagas) vs. 0.08 (non-Chagas) (RR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.52-2.91) in the moderate group, and AMR = 0.02 vs. 0.01 (RR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.77) in the asymptomatic group. Meta-regression showed no evidence of study-level covariates on the effect size. Publication bias was not statistically significant (Egger's test p=0.08). The results indicate a statistically significant excess of mortality due to Chagas disease that is shared among both symptomatic and asymptomatic populations.

Sex differences in neonatal mortality in Sarlahi, Nepal: the role of biology and environment.

PubMed

Rosenstock, Summer; Katz, Joanne; Mullany, Luke C; Khatry, Subarna K; LeClerq, Steven C; Darmstadt, Gary L; Tielsch, James M

2013-12-01

Studies in South Asia have documented increased risk of neonatal mortality among girls, despite evidence of a biological survival advantage. Associations between gender preference and mortality are cited as reasons for excess mortality among girls. This has not, however, been tested in statistical models. A secondary analysis of data from a population-based randomised controlled trial of newborn infection prevention conducted in rural southern Nepal was used to estimate sex differences in early and late neonatal mortality, with girls as the reference group. The analysis investigated which underlying biological factors (immutable factors specific to the newborn or his/her mother) and environmental factors (mutable external factors) might explain observed sex differences in mortality. Neonatal mortality was comparable by sex (Ref=girls; OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.22). When stratified by neonatal period, boys were at 20% (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02% to 1.42%) greater risk of early and girls at 43% (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51% to 0.94%) greater risk of late neonatal mortality. Biological factors, primarily respiratory depression and unconsciousness at birth, explained excess early neonatal mortality among boys. Increased late neonatal mortality among girls was explained by a three-way environmental interaction between ethnicity, sex and prior sibling composition (categorised as primiparous newborns, infants born to families with prior living boys or boys and girls, and infants born to families with only prior living girls). Risk of neonatal mortality inverted between the early and late neonatal periods. Excess risk of early neonatal death among boys was consistent with biological expectations. Excess risk for late neonatal death among girls was not explained by overarching gender preference or preferential care-seeking for boys as hypothesised, but was driven by increased risk among Madeshi girls born to families with only prior girls.

Variation across Canada in the economic burden attributable to excess weight, tobacco smoking and physical inactivity.

PubMed

Krueger, Hans; Krueger, Joshua; Koot, Jacqueline

2015-04-30

Tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity contribute substantially to the preventable disease burden in Canada. The purpose of this paper is to determine the potential reduction in economic burden if all provinces achieved prevalence rates of these three risk factors (RFs) equivalent to those of the province with the lowest rates, and to update and address a limitation noted in our previous model. We used a previously developed approach based on population attributable fractions to estimate the economic burden associated with these RFs. Sex-specific relative risk and age-/sex-specific prevalence data were used in the modelling. The previous model was updated using the most current data for developing resource allocation weights. In 2012, the prevalence of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity was the lowest in British Columbia. If age- and sex-specific prevalence rates from BC were applied to populations living in the other provinces, the annual economic burden attributable to these three RFs would be reduced by $5.3 billion. Updating the model resulted in a considerable shift in economic burden from smoking to excess weight, with the estimated annual economic burden attributable to excess weight now 25% higher compared to that of tobacco smoking ($23.3 vs. $18.7 billion). Achieving RF prevalence rates equivalent to those of the province with the lowest rates would result in a 10% reduction in economic burden attributable to excess weight, smoking and physical inactivity in Canada. This study shows that using current resource use data is important for this type of economic modelling.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; McElvenny, Damien M

2017-02-01

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors - differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223-229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151.

Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

2017-01-01

Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact. PMID:28082386

More than Drought: Precipitation Variance, Excessive Wetness, Pathogens and the Future of the Western Edge of the Eastern Deciduous Forest.

PubMed

Hubbart, Jason A; Guyette, Richard; Muzika, Rose-Marie

2016-10-01

For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly divergent climate extremes. However, little is known about how increasing climate variance may affect ecosystem productivity. Forest ecosystems may be particularly susceptible to this problem considering the complex organizational structure of specialized species niche adaptations. Forest decline is often attributable to multiple stressors including prolonged heat, wildfire and insect outbreaks. These disturbances, often categorized as megadisturbances, can push temperate forests beyond sustainability thresholds. Absent from much of the contemporary forest health literature, however, is the discussion of excessive precipitation that may affect other disturbances synergistically or that might represent a principal stressor. Here, specific points of evidence are provided including historic climatology, variance predictions from global change modeling, Midwestern paleo climate data, local climate influences on net ecosystem exchange and productivity, and pathogen influences on oak mortality. Data sources reveal potential trends, deserving further investigation, indicating that the western edge of the Eastern Deciduous forest may be impacted by ongoing increased precipitation, precipitation variance and excessive wetness. Data presented, in conjunction with recent regional forest health concerns, suggest that climate variance including drought and excessive wetness should be equally considered for forest ecosystem resilience against increasingly dynamic climate. This communication serves as an alert to the need for studies on potential impacts of increasing climate variance and excessive wetness in forest ecosystem health and productivity in the Midwest US and similar forest ecosystems globally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of history of severe mental illness on mortality in colorectal cancer cases: a register-based cohort study.

PubMed

Manderbacka, Kristiina; Arffman, Martti; Lumme, Sonja; Suvisaari, Jaana; Keskimäki, Ilmo; Ahlgren-Rimpiläinen, Aulikki; Malila, Nea; Pukkala, Eero

2018-06-01

While the link between mental illness and cancer survival is well established, few studies have focused on colorectal cancer. We examined outcomes of colorectal cancer among persons with a history of severe mental illness (SMI). We identified patients with their first colorectal cancer diagnosis in 1990-2013 (n = 41,708) from the Finnish Cancer Registry, hospital admissions due to SMI preceding cancer diagnosis (n = 2382) from the Hospital Discharge Register and deaths from the Causes of Death statistics. Cox regression models were used to study the impact on SMI to mortality differences. We found excess colorectal cancer mortality among persons with a history of psychosis and with substance use disorder. When controlling for age, comorbidity, stage at presentation and treatment, excess mortality risk among men with a history of psychosis was 1.72 (1.46-2.04) and women 1.37 (1.20-1.57). Among men with substance use disorder, the excess risk was 1.22 (1.09-1.37). Understanding factors contributing to excess mortality among persons with a history of psychosis or substance use requires more detailed clinical studies and studies of care processes among these vulnerable patient groups. Collaboration between patients, mental health care and oncological teams is needed to improve outcomes of care.

Cancer mortality in the indigenous population of coastal Chukotka, 1961-1990.

PubMed

Dudarev, Alexey A; Chupakhin, Valery S; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2013-01-01

The general aim was to assess the pattern and trend in cancer mortality among the indigenous people of coastal Chukotka during the period 1961-1990. All cases of cancer deaths of indigenous residents of the Chukotsky district in the north-easternmost coast of Chukotka Autonomous Okrug were copied from personal death certificates. There were a total of 219 cancer deaths during the study period. The average annual number of cases, percent, crude, and age-standardized cancer mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 among men and women for all sites combined and selected sites were calculated. Data were aggregated into six 5-year periods to assess temporal trends. Direct age-standardization was performed with the Segi-Doll world standard population used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The indigenous Chukchi and Eskimo people living in Chukotsky district were at higher risk of death from cancer during the 30-year period between 1961 and 1990, with ASMR among men twice that of Russia, and among women 3.5 times higher. The excess can be attributed to the extremely high mortality from oesophageal cancer and lung cancer. The indigenous people of coastal Chukotka were at very high risk of death from cancer relative to the Russian population nationally. The mortality data from this study correspond to the pattern of incidence reported among other indigenous people of the Russian Arctic. Little information is available since 1990, and the feasibility of ethnic-specific health data is now severely limited.

[Excess mortality due to tuberculosis and factors associated to death in and annual cohort of patients diagnosed of tuberculosis].

PubMed

Pina, J M; Domínguez, A; Alcaide, J; Alvarez, J; Camps, N; Díez, M; Godoy, P; Jansá, J M; Minquell, S; Arias, C

2006-12-01

To calculate excess mortality in an annual cohort of tuberculosis patients and study the factors associated with death. Cases of tuberculosis reported in Catalonia (May 1996-April 1997). Patients were classified as completed treatment/cured (compliant), non-compliant, failures, transfers out and deaths. Excess mortality was defined as the ratio actual deaths/expected deaths (according to general mortality figures for Catalonia, May 1996-April 1997). Factors associated with death were determined by a comparative study of variables (demographic, substance abuse, comorbidity, tuberculosis-related disease) in deaths after diagnosis and survivors. Time from diagnosis to death was recorded. Patients included: 2,085. Patients classified as: completed treatment/cured (compliant), 1,406 (67.43 %); noncompliant, 165 (7, 91%); failures, 5 (0.24%); transfers out, 25 (1.21%); deaths, 133 (6.38%), 28 of which occurred before diagnosis and 105 after diagnosis. Insufficient data in medical record for classification, 351 (16.83%) patients. Excess mortality: 5.98 (95% CI: 4.96-7.0). Factors associated with death: treatment with non-standardized guidelines, 46%; OR: 10.3 (6.2-17.4); HIV infection, 40%; OR: 13.0 (6.6-25.8); age greater than 64 years, 40%; OR: 14.6 (3.0-69.8); alcoholism, 25%; OR: 2.0 (1.1-3.6); neoplasm, 16%; OR: 3.9 (1.8-8.6; renal failure, 8%; OR: 10.1 (3.1-32.3). The shortest time from diagnosis to death was in patients with only one risk factor, except for HIV infection, where the time passed was the longest observed. We found substantial excess mortality in tuberculosis patients. Death was associated with the efficacy of treatment, HIV coinfection, advanced age, alcoholism and the coexistence of neoplasms or renal failure.

"Bread and a pennyworth of treacle": excess female mortality in England in the 1840s.

PubMed

Humphries, J

1991-12-01

The author analyzes excess female mortality in nineteenth-century England. She concludes that such mortality was affected by the economic environment and that "much literary evidence points to unequal access to food and a resulting susceptibility to epidemic and respiratory diseases as the transmission mechanism converting dependence and discrimination into relatively high death rates." Women were also adversely affected by harsh labor conditions, in addition to the heavy duties involved in motherhood and housework. excerpt

Cancer mortality following radium treatment for uterine bleeding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Inskip, P.D.; Monson, R.R.; Wagoner, J.K.

1990-09-01

Cancer mortality in relation to radiation dose was evaluated among 4153 women treated with intrauterine radium (226Ra) capsules for benign gynecologic bleeding disorders between 1925 and 1965. Average follow up was 26.5 years (maximum = 59.9 years). Overall, 2763 deaths were observed versus 2687 expected based on U.S. mortality rates (standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.03). Deaths due to cancer, however, were increased (SMR = 1.30), especially cancers of organs close to the radiation source. For organs receiving greater than 5 Gy, excess mortality of 100 to 110% was noted for cancers of the uterus and bladder 10 or moremore » years following irradiation, while a deficit was seen for cancer of the cervix, one of the few malignancies not previously shown to be caused by ionizing radiation. Part of the excess of uterine cancer, however, may have been due to the underlying gynecologic disorders being treated. Among cancers of organs receiving average or local doses of 1 to 4 Gy, excesses of 30 to 100% were found for leukemia and cancers of the colon and genital organs other than uterus; no excess was seen for rectal or bone cancer. Among organs typically receiving 0.1 to 0.3 Gy, a deficit was recorded for cancers of the liver, gall bladder, and bile ducts combined, death due to stomach cancer occurred at close to the expected rate, a 30% excess was noted for kidney cancer (based on eight deaths), and there was a 60% excess of pancreatic cancer among 10-year survivors, but little evidence of dose-response. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Gray were 0.006 for uterus, 0.4 for other genital organs, 0.5 for colon, 0.2 for bladder, and 1.9 for leukemia. Contrary to findings for other populations treated by pelvic irradiation, a deficit of breast cancer was not observed (SMR = 1.0). Dose to the ovaries may have been insufficient to protect against breast cancer.« less

Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Patients Treated Either With RAI or Thyroidectomy for Hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Ryödi, Essi; Metso, Saara; Jaatinen, Pia; Huhtala, Heini; Saaristo, Rauni; Välimäki, Matti; Auvinen, Anssi

2015-10-01

Some previous studies have suggested increased cancer risk in hyperthyroid patients treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). It is unclear whether the excess cancer risk is attributable to hyperthyroidism, its treatment, or the shared risk factors of the two diseases. The objective was to assess cancer morbidity and mortality in hyperthyroid patients treated with either RAI or surgery. We identified 4334 patients treated surgically for hyperthyroidism in Finland during 1986-2007 from the Hospital Discharge Registry and 1814 patients treated with RAI for hyperthyroidism at Tampere University Hospital. For each patient, three age- and gender-matched controls were chosen. Information on cancer diagnoses was obtained from the Cancer Registry. The follow-up began 3 months after the treatment and ended at cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or the common closing date (December 31, 2009). The overall cancer incidence was not increased among the hyperthyroid patients compared to their controls (rate ratio [RR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96-1.15). However, the risk of cancers of the respiratory tract (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.05-2.02) and the stomach (RR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.01-2.68) was increased among the patients. The overall cancer mortality did not differ between the patients and the controls (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.94-1.25). The type of treatment did not affect the overall risk of cancer (hazard ratio for RAI vs thyroidectomy, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.86-1.23) or cancer mortality (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.91-1.21). In this cohort of Finnish patients with hyperthyroidism treated with thyroidectomy or RAI, the overall risk of cancer was not increased, although an increased risk of gastric and respiratory tract cancers was seen in hyperthyroid patients. Based on this large-scale, long-term follow-up study, the increased cancer risk in hyperthyroid patients is attributable to hyperthyroidism and shared risk factors, not the treatment modality.

Economic costs of excessive alcohol consumption in the U.S., 2006.

PubMed

Bouchery, Ellen E; Harwood, Henrick J; Sacks, Jeffrey J; Simon, Carol J; Brewer, Robert D

2011-11-01

Excessive alcohol consumption causes premature death (average of 79,000 deaths annually); increased disease and injury; property damage from fire and motor vehicle crashes; alcohol-related crime; and lost productivity. However, its economic cost has not been assessed for the U.S. since 1998. To update prior national estimates of the economic costs of excessive drinking. This study (conducted 2009-2010) followed U.S. Public Health Service Guidelines to assess the economic cost of excessive alcohol consumption in 2006. Costs for health care, productivity losses, and other effects (e.g., property damage) in 2006 were obtained from national databases. Alcohol-attributable fractions were obtained from multiple sources and used to assess the proportion of costs that could be attributed to excessive alcohol consumption. The estimated economic cost of excessive drinking was $223.5 billion in 2006 (72.2% from lost productivity, 11.0% from healthcare costs, 9.4% from criminal justice costs, and 7.5% from other effects) or approximately $1.90 per alcoholic drink. Binge drinking resulted in costs of $170.7 billion (76.4% of the total); underage drinking $24.6 [corrected] billion; and drinking during pregnancy $5.2 billion. The cost of alcohol-attributable crime was $73.3 billion. The cost to government was $94.2 billion (42.1% of the total cost), which corresponds to about $0.80 per alcoholic drink consumed in 2006 (categories are not mutually exclusive and may overlap). On a per capita basis, the economic impact of excessive alcohol consumption in the U.S. is approximately $746 per person, most of which is attributable to binge drinking. Evidence-based strategies for reducing excessive drinking should be widely implemented. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Impacts of hot and cold spells differ for acute and chronic ischaemic heart diseases

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have reported associations between temperature extremes and cardiovascular mortality but little has been understood about differences in the effects on acute and chronic diseases. The present study examines hot and cold spell effects on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the Czech Republic during 1994–2009, with emphasis upon differences in the effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and chronic IHD. Methods We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, thus allowing for comparison of results for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. Daily mortality data were standardised to account for the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections were removed from the analysis. Results Both hot and cold spells were associated with excess IHD mortality. For hot spells, chronic IHD was responsible for most IHD excess deaths in both male and female populations, and the impacts were much more pronounced in the 65+ years age group. The excess mortality from AMI was much lower compared to chronic IHD mortality during hot spells. For cold spells, by contrast, the relative excess IHD mortality was most pronounced in the younger age group (0–64 years), and we found different pattern for chronic IHD and AMI, with larger effects on AMI. Conclusions The findings show that while excess deaths due to IHD during hot spells are mainly of persons with chronic diseases whose health had already been compromised, cardiovascular changes induced by cold stress may result in deaths from acute coronary events rather than chronic IHD, and this effect is important also in the younger population. This suggests that the most vulnerable population groups as well as the most affected cardiovascular diseases differ between hot and cold spells, which needs to be taken into account when designing and implementing preventive actions. PMID:24886566

Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: Have all risk factors the same strength?

PubMed Central

Martín-Timón, Iciar; Sevillano-Collantes, Cristina; Segura-Galindo, Amparo; del Cañizo-Gómez, Francisco Javier

2014-01-01

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic condition that occurs when the body cannot produce enough or effectively use of insulin. Compared with individuals without diabetes, patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus have a considerably higher risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and are disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease. Most of this excess risk is it associated with an augmented prevalence of well-known risk factors such as hypertension, dyslipidaemia and obesity in these patients. However the improved cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients can not be attributed solely to the higher prevalence of traditional risk factors. Therefore other non-traditional risk factors may be important in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Cardiovascular disease is increased in type 2 diabetes mellitus subjects due to a complex combination of various traditional and non-traditional risk factors that have an important role to play in the beginning and the evolution of atherosclerosis over its long natural history from endothelial function to clinical events. Many of these risk factors could be common history for both diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, reinforcing the postulate that both disorders come independently from “common soil”. The objective of this review is to highlight the weight of traditional and non-traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the setting of type 2 diabetes mellitus and discuss their position in the pathogenesis of the excess cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity in these patients. PMID:25126392

Impact of Adverse Events Following Immunization in Viet Nam in 2013 on chronic hepatitis B infection.

PubMed

Li, Xi; Wiesen, Eric; Diorditsa, Sergey; Toda, Kohei; Duong, Thi Hong; Nguyen, Lien Huong; Nguyen, Van Cuong; Nguyen, Tran Hien

2016-02-03

Adverse Events Following Immunization in Viet Nam in 2013 led to substantial reductions in hepatitis B vaccination coverage (both the birth dose and the three-dose series). In order to estimate the impact of the reduction in vaccination coverage on hepatitis B transmission and future mortality, a widely-used mathematical model was applied to the data from Viet Nam. Using the model, we estimated the number of chronic infections and deaths that are expected to occur in the birth cohort in 2013 and the number of excessive infections and deaths attributable to the drop in immunization coverage in 2013. An excess of 90,137 chronic infections and 17,456 future deaths were estimated to occur in the 2013 birth cohort due to the drop in vaccination coverage. This analysis highlights the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage and swiftly responding to reported Adverse Events Following Immunization in order to regain consumer confidence in the hepatitis B vaccine. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Disparities in Smoking-Related Mortality Among American Indians/Alaska Natives.

PubMed

Mowery, Paul D; Dube, Shanta R; Thorne, Stacy L; Garrett, Bridgette E; Homa, David M; Nez Henderson, Patricia

2015-11-01

Smoking-related disparities continue to be a public health problem among American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) population groups and data documenting the health burden of smoking in this population are sparse. The purpose of this study was to assess mortality attributable to cigarette smoking among AI/AN adults relative to non-Hispanic white adults (whites) by calculating and comparing smoking-attributable fractions and mortality. Smoking-attributable fractions and mortality among AI/ANs (n=1.63 million AI/ANs) and whites were calculated for people living in 637 Indian Health Service Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties in the U.S., from mortality data collected during 2001-2009. Differences in smoking-attributable mortality between AI/ANs and whites for five major causes of smoking-related deaths were examined. All data analyses were carried out in 2013-2014. Overall, from 2001 to 2009, age-adjusted death rates, smoking-attributable fractions, and smoking-attributable mortality for all-cause mortality were higher among AI/ANs than among whites for adult men and women aged ≥35 years. Smoking caused 21% of ischemic heart disease, 15% of other heart disease, and 17% of stroke deaths in AI/AN men, compared with 15%, 10%, and 9%, respectively, for white men. Among AI/AN women, smoking caused 18% of ischemic heart disease deaths, 13% of other heart diseases deaths, and 20% of stroke deaths, compared with 9%, 7%, and 10%, respectively, among white women. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive tobacco control and prevention efforts that can effectively reach and impact the AI/AN population to prevent and reduce smoking. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: a study of 14 European countries, 1990-2004.

PubMed

Gregoraci, G; van Lenthe, F J; Artnik, B; Bopp, M; Deboosere, P; Kovács, K; Looman, C W N; Martikainen, P; Menvielle, G; Peters, F; Wojtyniak, B; de Gelder, R; Mackenbach, J P

2017-05-01

Smoking contributes to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, but the extent to which this contribution has changed over time and driven widening or narrowing inequalities in total mortality remains unknown. We studied socioeconomic inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and their contribution to inequalities in total mortality in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004 in 14 European countries. We collected, harmonised and standardised population-wide data on all-cause and lung-cancer mortality by age, gender, educational and occupational level in 14 European populations in 1990-1994 and 2000-2004. Smoking-attributable mortality was indirectly estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. In 2000-2004, smoking-attributable mortality was higher in lower socioeconomic groups in all countries among men, and in all countries except Spain, Italy and Slovenia, among women, and the contribution of smoking to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality varied between 19% and 55% among men, and between -1% and 56% among women. Since 1990-1994, absolute inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and the contribution of smoking to inequalities in total mortality have decreased in most countries among men, but increased among women. In many European countries, smoking has become less important as a determinant of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality among men, but not among women. Inequalities in smoking remain one of the most important entry points for reducing inequalities in mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cold-related mortality vs heat-related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania).

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Adamonyte, Dovile

2018-06-21

Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature. During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 °C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below - 12 °C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a "middle ground" between the acclimatisation and non-acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality. Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of model grid size on the simulation of PM2.5 and the related excess mortality in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, D.; Ueda, K.; Ng, C. F.; Takami, A.; Ariga, T.; Matsuhashi, K.; Nakajima, T.

2016-12-01

Aerosols, especially PM2.5, can affect air pollution, climate change, and human health. The estimation of health impacts due to PM2.5 is often performed using global and regional aerosol transport models with various horizontal resolutions. To investigate the dependence of the simulated PM2.5 on model grid sizes, we executed two simulations using a high-resolution model ( 10km; HRM) and a low-resolution model ( 100km; LRM, which is a typical value for general circulation models). In this study, we used a global-to-regional atmospheric transport model to simulate PM2.5 in Japan with a stretched grid system in HRM and a uniform grid system in LRM for the present (the 2000) and the future (the 2030, as proposed by the Representative Concentrations Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5). These calculations were performed by nudging meteorological fields obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled model and providing emission inventories used in the coupled model. After correcting for bias, we calculated the excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 for the elderly. Results showed the LRM underestimated by approximately 30 % (of PM2.5 concentrations in the 2000 and 2030), approximately 60 % (excess mortality in the 2000) and approximately 90 % (excess mortality in 2030) compared to the HRM results. The estimation of excess mortality therefore performed better with high-resolution grid sizes. In addition, we also found that our nesting method could be a useful tool to obtain better estimation results.

Patterns in mortality among people with severe mental disorders across birth cohorts: a register-based study of Denmark and Finland in 1982-2006.

PubMed

Gissler, Mika; Laursen, Thomas Munk; Ösby, Urban; Nordentoft, Merete; Wahlbeck, Kristian

2013-09-11

Mortality among patients with mental disorders is higher than in general population. By using national longitudinal registers, we studied mortality changes and excess mortality across birth cohorts among people with severe mental disorders in Denmark and Finland. A cohort of all patients admitted with a psychiatric disorder in 1982-2006 was followed until death or 31 December 2006. Total mortality rates were calculated for five-year birth cohorts from 1918-1922 until 1983-1987 for people with mental disorder and compared to the mortality rates among the general population. Mortality among patients with severe mental disorders declined, but patients with mental disorders had a higher mortality than general population in all birth cohorts in both countries. We observed two exceptions to the declining mortality differences. First, the excess mortality stagnated among Finnish men born in 1963-1987, and remained five to six times higher than at ages 15-24 years in general. Second, the excess mortality stagnated for Danish and Finnish women born in 1933-1957, and remained six-fold in Denmark and Finland at ages 45-49 years and seven-fold in Denmark at ages 40-44 years compared to general population. The mortality gap between people with severe mental disorders and the general population decreased, but there was no improvement for young Finnish men with mental disorders. The Finnish recession in the early 1990s may have adversely affected mortality of adolescent and young adult men with mental disorders. Among women born 1933-1957, the lack of improvement may reflect adverse effects of the era of extensive hospitalisation of people with mental disorders in both countries.

Mortality among members of a heavy construction equipment operators union with potential exposure to diesel exhaust emissions.

PubMed Central

Wong, O; Morgan, R W; Kheifets, L; Larson, S R; Whorton, M D

1985-01-01

A historical prospective mortality study was conducted on a cohort of 34 156 male members of a heavy construction equipment operators union with potential exposure to diesel exhaust emissions. This cohort comprised all individuals who were members of the International Union of Operating Engineers, Locals 3 and 3A, for at least one year between 1 January 1964 and 31 December 1978. The mortality experience of the entire cohort and several subcohorts was compared with that of United States white men, adjusted for age and calendar time. The comparison statistic was the commonly used standardised mortality ratio (SMR). Historical environmental measurements did not exist, but partial work histories were available for some cohort members through the union dispatch computer tapes. An attempt was made to relate mortality experience to the union members' dispatch histories. Overall mortality for the entire cohort and several subgroups was significantly lower than expected. When cause specific mortality was examined, however, the study provided suggestive evidence for the existence of several potential health problems in this cohort. Mortality from liver cancer for the entire cohort was significantly high. Although mortality from lung cancer for the entire cohort was similar to expected, a positive trend by latency was observed for lung cancer. A significant excess of mortality from lung cancer was found among the retirees and the group for whom no dispatch histories were available. Other dispatch groups showed no evidence of lung cancer excess. In addition, the total cohort experienced significant mortality excess from emphysema and accidental deaths. PMID:2410010

Costs of coronary heart disease and mortality associated with near-roadway air pollution.

PubMed

Brandt, Sylvia; Dickinson, Brenton; Ghosh, Rakesh; Lurmann, Frederick; Perez, Laura; Penfold, Bryan; Wilson, John; Künzli, Nino; McConnell, Rob

2017-12-01

Emerging evidence indicates that the near-roadway air pollution (NRAP) mixture contributes to CHD, yet few studies have evaluated the associated costs. We integrated an assessment of NRAP-attributable CHD in Southern California with new methods to value the associated mortality and hospitalizations. Based on population-weighted residential exposure to NRAP (traffic density, proximity to a major roadway and elemental carbon), we estimated the inflation-adjusted value of NRAP-attributable mortality and costs of hospitalizations that occurred in 2008. We also estimated anticipated costs in 2035 based on projected changes in population and in NRAP exposure associated with California's plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For comparison, we estimated the value of CHD mortality attributable to PM less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM 2.5 ) in both 2008 and 2035. The value of CHD mortality attributable to NRAP in 2008 was between $3.8 and $11.5 billion, 23% (major roadway proximity) to 68% (traffic density) of the $16.8 billion attributable to regulated regional PM 2.5 . NRAP-attributable costs were projected to increase to $10.6 to $22 billion in 2035, depending on the NRAP metric. Cost of NRAP-attributable hospitalizations for CHD in 2008 was $48.6 million and was projected to increase to $51.4 million in 2035. We developed an economic framework that can be used to estimate the benefits of regulations to improve air quality. CHD attributable to NRAP has a large economic impact that is expected to increase by 2035, largely due to an aging population. PM 2.5 -attributable costs may underestimate total value of air pollution-attributable CHD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Cohort Mortality Study of Workers in a Second Soup Manufacturing Plant.

PubMed

Faramawi, Mohammed F; Ndetan, Harrison; Jadhav, Supriya; Johnson, Eric S

2015-01-01

The authors previously reported on mortality among workers in a Baltimore soup plant. Increased mortality was observed for cancers of the floor of the mouth, rectosigmoid colon/rectum/anus, epilepsy, and chronic nephritis. Here, the authors report on mortality on a second soup plant in the same locality. Excess mortality was similarly recorded for cancers of the tonsils/oropharynx, rectosigmoid colon/rectum/anus, and lung and myelofibrosis. Excess risk from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, kidney, and infectious diseases was also observed. These 2 studies are important because firstly, to the authors' knowledge, they are the only reports of mortality in this occupational group in spite of their having a potential for exposure to hazardous carcinogenic agents. Secondly, there is no information on any exposure assessment in this industry. These 2 reports will draw attention to the need to conduct more detailed exposure and mortality investigations in this little-studied group.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan.

PubMed

Granados, José A Tapia

2008-05-01

Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45-64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility--making up about 41% of total mortality--tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don't show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.

Risk Factor Effects and Total Mortality in Older Japanese Men in Japan and Hawaii

PubMed Central

Abbott, Robert D.; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Hozawa, Atsushi; Okamura, Tomonori; Kadowaki, Takashi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okuda, Nagako; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Kita, Yoshikuni; Rodriguez, Beatriz L.; Yano, Katsuhiko; Curb, J. David

2017-01-01

Purpose To identify factors related to total mortality in older Japanese men in Japan and Hawaii. Methods Baseline data were collected from 1980 to 1982 in 1,379 men in Hawaii and 954 men in Japan. Ages ranged from 61 to 81 years with mortality follow-up over a 19 year period. Results Compared to Japan, men in Hawaii had a 2-fold excess of diabetes and a 4-fold excess of prevalent coronary heart disease (p<0.001). Total cholesterol and body mass index were also higher in Hawaii (p<0.001). In contrast, men in Japan had higher systolic blood pressure and were nearly 3-times more likely to smoke cigarettes (p<0.001). Although each cohort had elements of a poor risk factor profile, there was a 1.4-fold excess in the risk of death in Japan (49.4 vs. 36.2/1,000 person-years, p<0.001). While mortality was similar after risk factor adjustment, only blood pressure and cigarette smoking accounted for the higher risk of death in Japan. Conclusions Cigarette smoking and hypertension explain much of the excess mortality in Japan versus Hawaii. In this comparison of genetically similar cohorts, evidence further suggests that Japanese in Japan are equally susceptible to develop the same adverse risk factor conditions that exist in Hawaii. PMID:19041590

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Stoeldraijer, Lenny; Bonneux, Luc; van Duin, Coen; van Wissen, Leo; Janssen, Fanny

2015-02-01

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE AGRICULTURAL HEALTH STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Despite low mortality and cancer incidence rates overall, farmers may experience excess risk of several cancers. These excesses have been observed in some, but not all, retrospective epidemiological studies of agricultural workers in several countries. Excess risk has been ob...

Non-specific sex-differential effect of DTP vaccination may partially explain the excess girl child mortality in Ballabgarh, India.

PubMed

Krishnan, A; Srivastava, R; Dwivedi, P; Ng, N; Byass, P; Pandav, C S

2013-11-01

To test the hypothesis that a gender differential exists in the effect on child mortality of BCG, DTP, measles vaccine as administered under programme conditions in Ballabgarh HDSS area. All live births in 28 villages of Ballabgarh block in North India from 2006 to 2011 were followed until 31 December 2011 or 36 months of age whichever was earlier. The period of analysis was divided into four time periods based on eligibility for vaccines under the national immunisation schedule (BCG for tuberculosis, primary and booster doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and measles). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between sex and risk of mortality by vaccination status using age as the timescale in survival analysis and adjusting for wealth index, access to health care, the presence of a health facility in the village, parental education, type of family, birth order of the child and year of birth. 702 deaths (332 boys and 370 girls) occurred among 12,142 children in the cohort in the 3 years of follow-up giving a cumulative mortality rate of 57.5 per 1000 live births with 35% excess girl child mortality. Age at vaccination for the four vaccines did not differ by sex. There was significant excess mortality among girls after immunisation with DTP, for both primary (HR 1.65; 95% CI:1.17-2.32) and DTPb (2.21; 1.24-3.93) vaccinations. No significant excess morality among girls was noted after exposure to BCG 1.06 (0.67-1.67) or measles 1.34 (0.85-2.12) vaccine. This study supports the contention that DTP vaccination is partially responsible for higher mortality among girls in this study population. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

PubMed Central

Baccini, Michela; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-01-01

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. PMID:28678192

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

PubMed

Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-07-05

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Reduced Mortality of Cytomegalovirus Pneumonia After Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Due to Antiviral Therapy and Changes in Transplantation Practices

PubMed Central

Erard, Veronique; Guthrie, Katherine A.; Seo, Sachiko; Smith, Jeremy; Huang, MeeiLi; Chien, Jason; Flowers, Mary E. D.; Corey, Lawrence; Boeckh, Michael

2015-01-01

Background. Despite major advances in the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease, the treatment of CMV pneumonia in recipients of hematopoietic cell transplant remains a significant challenge. Methods. We examined recipient, donor, transplant, viral, and treatment factors associated with overall and attributable mortality using Cox regression models. Results. Four hundred twenty-one cases were identified between 1986 and 2011. Overall survival at 6 months was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25%–34%). Outcome improved after the year 2000 (all-cause mortality: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.7 [95% CI, .5–1.0]; P = .06; attributable mortality: aHR, 0.6 [95% CI, .4–.9]; P = .01). Factors independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause and attributable mortality included female sex, elevated bilirubin, lymphopenia, and mechanical ventilation; grade 3/4 acute graft-vs-host disease was associated with all-cause mortality only. An analysis of patients who received transplants in the current preemptive therapy era (n = 233) showed only lymphopenia and mechanical ventilation as significant risk factors for overall and attributable mortality. Antiviral treatment with ganciclovir or foscarnet was associated with improved outcome compared with no antiviral treatment. However, the addition of intravenous pooled or CMV-specific immunoglobulin to antiviral treatment did not seem to improve overall or attributable mortality. Conclusions. Outcome of CMV pneumonia showed a modest improvement over the past 25 years. However, advances seem to be due to antiviral treatment and changes in transplant practices rather than immunoglobulin-based treatments. Novel treatment strategies for CMV pneumonia are needed. PMID:25778751

[Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

PubMed

Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

2011-10-01

To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged <65 years in excess deaths rose compared with 'non-pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the "Individual Defensive" vaccination program in the 2000s. Excess deaths were observed continually, and not limited to pandemic years. We must not slight public health interventions for 'non-pandemic' influenza as well as pandemic influenza. We should also re-examine the importance of "Social Defenses", including preventative vaccination, for public health policy.

Inequalities in mortality by marital status during socio-economic transition in Lithuania.

PubMed

Kalediene, R; Petrauskiene, J; Starkuviene, S

2007-05-01

To analyse the changes in mortality inequalities by marital status over the period of socio-economic transition in Lithuania and to estimate the contribution of major causes of death to marital-status differences in overall mortality. A survey based on routine mortality statistics and census data for 1989 and 2001 for the entire country. The proportion of married population has declined over the past decade. Widowed men and never married women were found to be at highest risk of mortality throughout the period under investigation. Although inequalities have not grown considerably, mortality rates have increased significantly for divorced populations and for never married men, widening the mortality gap. Cardiovascular diseases contributed most to excess mortality of never married and divorced men, as well as all unmarried groups of women. The excess mortality of widowed men from external causes was greatest in 2001. Marriage can be considered as a health protecting factor, particularly in relation to mortality from cardiovascular diseases and external causes. Local and national policies aimed at health promotion must focus primarily on improving the position of unmarried groups and providing psychological support.

Mortality in retired coke oven plant workers.

PubMed Central

Chau, N; Bertrand, J P; Mur, J M; Figueredo, A; Patris, A; Moulin, J J; Pham, Q T

1993-01-01

A previous study on 536 retired coke oven plant workers in Lorraine Collieries (France) reported an excess of deaths from lung cancer (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 251) compared with the French male population. Occupational exposures during working life were retraced for each subject, but the number of deaths during the observation period (1963-82) was small, and smoking habits were known only for dead subjects. In 1988, the cohort was re-examined (182 deaths occurred between 1963 and 1987) and smoking habits were determined for all the subjects. This study confirmed the excess of lung cancer (SMR = 238, p < 0.001). It showed an excess of mortality from all causes (SMR = 141, p < 0.001), overall cancers (SMR = 133, p < 0.05), and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 133, p < 0.05). A significant excess of deaths was found for subjects who worked near the ovens for all causes (145, p < 0.01), lung cancer (SMR = 252, p < 0.01), colon cancer (SMR = 381, p < 0.05), and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 155, p < 0.05). A significant excess mortality was also found from all causes (176, p < 0.05) and stomach cancer (SMR = 538, p < 0.01) in subjects who worked in byproducts, from lung cancer (SMR = 433, p < 0.001) in those in the workshops, and from cirrhosis of the liver and alcoholism (SMR = 360, p < 0.01) in those underground; but, due to small numbers, these figures were not robust. An excess of mortality from all causes (SMR = 163, p<001), lung cancer (SMR = 228, p<0.05) and cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 179, p<0.01) was shown also for non-exposed or slightly exposed subjects. The fact that, on the whole, mortality of various exposed groups was similar to that of non-exposed or slightly exposed workers may be explained in part by the selection at hiring and the healthy worker effect. As an increased risk of lung cancer was noted among subjects who worked in the old generations of plant compared with the other workers (although the relative risk was not significant) it is concluded that the role of occupational hazards could not be excluded. PMID:8435345

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-01-01

Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 PMID:27286002

Wine, Beer, Alcohol and Polyphenols on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer

PubMed Central

Arranz, Sara; Chiva-Blanch, Gemma; Valderas-Martínez, Palmira; Medina-Remón, Alex; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa M.; Estruch, Ramón

2012-01-01

Since ancient times, people have attributed a variety of health benefits to moderate consumption of fermented beverages such as wine and beer, often without any scientific basis. There is evidence that excessive or binge alcohol consumption is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as with work related and traffic accidents. On the contrary, at the moment, several epidemiological studies have suggested that moderate consumption of alcohol reduces overall mortality, mainly from coronary diseases. However, there are discrepancies regarding the specific effects of different types of beverages (wine, beer and spirits) on the cardiovascular system and cancer, and also whether the possible protective effects of alcoholic beverages are due to their alcoholic content (ethanol) or to their non-alcoholic components (mainly polyphenols). Epidemiological and clinical studies have pointed out that regular and moderate wine consumption (one to two glasses a day) is associated with decreased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, diabetes, and certain types of cancer, including colon, basal cell, ovarian, and prostate carcinoma. Moderate beer consumption has also been associated with these effects, but to a lesser degree, probably because of beer’s lower phenolic content. These health benefits have mainly been attributed to an increase in antioxidant capacity, changes in lipid profiles, and the anti-inflammatory effects produced by these alcoholic beverages. This review summarizes the main protective effects on the cardiovascular system and cancer resulting from moderate wine and beer intake due mainly to their common components, alcohol and polyphenols. PMID:22852062

A study of the mortality of Cornish tin miners.

PubMed Central

Fox, A J; Goldlbatt, P; Kinlen, L J

1981-01-01

Increased mortality from cancer of the lung has been found in several studies of miners exposed to high levels of radioactivity in underground air. In view of their exposure to raised levels of radiation, we have studied the mortality of a group of men recorded as Cornish tin miners in 1939. Using occupational description, a crude classification of exposure was derived for these miners. The meaningfulness of this classification was supported by differences in mortality from silicosis and silicotuberculosis. A twofold excess of cancer of the lung was found for underground miners, while for other categories mortality from this cause was less than expected. This supports the findings of previous studies on exposure to radon and its daughters. An excess of cancer of the stomach was also observed among underground miners. PMID:7317301

Burden of disease attributed to ambient air pollution in Thailand: A GIS-based approach.

PubMed

Pinichka, Chayut; Makka, Nuttapat; Sukkumnoed, Decharut; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Inchai, Puchong; Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta

2017-01-01

Growing urbanisation and population requiring enhanced electricity generation as well as the increasing numbers of fossil fuel in Thailand pose important challenges to air quality management which impacts on the health of the population. Mortality attributed to ambient air pollution is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We estimated the spatial pattern of mortality burden attributable to selected ambient air pollution in 2009 based on the empirical evidence in Thailand. We estimated the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution based on the comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). We integrated geographical information systems (GIS)-based exposure assessments into spatial interpolation models to estimate ambient air pollutant concentrations, the population distribution of exposure and the concentration-response (CR) relationship to quantify ambient air pollution exposure and associated mortality. We obtained air quality data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand surface air pollution monitoring network sources and estimated the CR relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentration of air pollutants from the epidemiological literature. We estimated 650-38,410 ambient air pollution-related fatalities and 160-5,982 fatalities that could have been avoided with a 20 reduction in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The summation of population-attributable fraction (PAF) of the disease burden for all-causes mortality in adults due to NO2 and PM2.5 were the highest among all air pollutants at 10% and 7.5%, respectively. The PAF summation of PM2.5 for lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were 16.8% and 14.6% respectively and the PAF summations of mortality attributable to PM10 was 3.4% for all-causes mortality, 1.7% for respiratory and 3.8% for cardiovascular mortality, while the PAF summation of mortality attributable to NO2 was 7.8% for respiratory mortality in Thailand. Mortality due to ambient air pollution in Thailand varies across the country. Geographical distribution estimates can identify high exposure areas for planners and policy-makers. Our results suggest that the benefits of a 20% reduction in ambient air pollution concentration could prevent up to 25% of avoidable fatalities each year in all-causes, respiratory and cardiovascular categories. Furthermore, our findings can provide guidelines for future epidemiological investigations and policy decisions to achieve the SDGs.

TRENDS IN MORTALITY FROM OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS AMONG MEN IN ENGLAND AND WALES DURING 1979-2010

PubMed Central

Harris, E Clare; Palmer, Keith T; Cox, Vanessa; Darnton, Andrew; Osman, John; Coggon, David

2016-01-01

Objectives To monitor the impact of health and safety provisions and inform future preventive strategies, we investigated trends in mortality from established occupational hazards in England and Wales. Methods We analysed data from death certificates on underlying cause of death and last full-time occupation for 3,688,916 deaths among men aged 20-74 years in England and Wales during 1979-2010 (excluding 1981 when records were incomplete). Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), standardised for age and social class, were calculated for occupations at risk of specified hazards. Observed and expected numbers of deaths for each hazard were summed across occupations, and the differences summarised as average annual excesses. Results Excess mortality declined substantially for most hazards. For example, the annual excess of deaths from chronic bronchitis and emphysema fell from 170.7 during 1979-90 to 36.0 in 2001-10, and that for deaths from injury and poisoning from 237.0 to 87.5. In many cases the improvements were associated with falling PMRs (suggesting safer working practices), but they also reflected reductions in the numbers of men employed in more hazardous jobs, and declining mortality from some diseases across the whole population. Notable exceptions to the general improvement were diseases caused by asbestos, especially in some construction trades and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. Conclusions The highest priority for future prevention of work-related fatalities is the minority of occupational disorders for which excess mortality remains static or is increasing, in particular asbestos-related disease among certain occupations in the construction industry and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. PMID:26976946

Behavioural factors affecting physical health of the New Zealand Maori.

PubMed

Sachdev, P S

1990-01-01

A major factor in the aetiology of illness is the behaviour of individuals with regard to certain risks and hazards of the environment. The Maori of New Zealand have been shown to be at greater risk of illness and death than their non-Maori counterparts. It is estimated that a significant proportion of this excess morbidity and mortality can be attributed to at least four behavioural factors: smoking, obesity, alcohol use and accidents. This paper examines the inter-cultural differences in these factors, both from a contemporary and an historical perspective. Some of the reasons for the continuation of these adverse patterns of behaviour are explored, in particular the role of psycho-cultural stress. Some possible mechanisms of effecting behavioural change in modern Maori society are discussed.

Perceived Mortality and Perceived Morality: Perceptions of Value-Orientation Are More Likely When a Decision Is Preceded by a Mortality Reminder

PubMed Central

Nordmo, Mads; Norman, Elisabeth

2016-01-01

The questions addressed in this paper are whether and how reported mortality reminders can function as an indication of sincerity when communicating ambiguously motivated decisions. In two experiments, participants were exposed to a fictitious CEO who announced a decision to implement new organizational measures that were both environmentally and financially beneficial. In the experimental condition, the CEO attributed her new ideas to a recent mortality reminder. In the active control condition, the CEO attributed her decision to a non-lethal dentistry health scare, and in the passive control condition the CEO did not give any account of events preceding her decision. When a CEO implemented new corporate initiatives after a mortality reminder, her motivation for doing so was perceived as somewhat more motivated by intrinsic values, and significantly less motivated by financial gains. This change in attribution patterns was demonstrated to be indirectly related to a positive evaluation of the CEO, as well as an increased willingness to pay for the organization’s services. The second experiment further demonstrated that the reduced attribution to financial motivation associated with mortality awareness persisted even when the CEO in question was known for placing a high personal priority on financial goal attainment. The findings underscore the importance of perceived value-oriented motivation when communicating climate change mitigating policies, and the role of mortality awareness as one of many ways to induce such attributions. PMID:26973555

Perceived Mortality and Perceived Morality: Perceptions of Value-Orientation Are More Likely When a Decision Is Preceded by a Mortality Reminder.

PubMed

Nordmo, Mads; Norman, Elisabeth

2016-01-01

The questions addressed in this paper are whether and how reported mortality reminders can function as an indication of sincerity when communicating ambiguously motivated decisions. In two experiments, participants were exposed to a fictitious CEO who announced a decision to implement new organizational measures that were both environmentally and financially beneficial. In the experimental condition, the CEO attributed her new ideas to a recent mortality reminder. In the active control condition, the CEO attributed her decision to a non-lethal dentistry health scare, and in the passive control condition the CEO did not give any account of events preceding her decision. When a CEO implemented new corporate initiatives after a mortality reminder, her motivation for doing so was perceived as somewhat more motivated by intrinsic values, and significantly less motivated by financial gains. This change in attribution patterns was demonstrated to be indirectly related to a positive evaluation of the CEO, as well as an increased willingness to pay for the organization's services. The second experiment further demonstrated that the reduced attribution to financial motivation associated with mortality awareness persisted even when the CEO in question was known for placing a high personal priority on financial goal attainment. The findings underscore the importance of perceived value-oriented motivation when communicating climate change mitigating policies, and the role of mortality awareness as one of many ways to induce such attributions.

Fraction of stroke mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia.

PubMed

Y E, Razvodovsky

2014-01-01

Stroke is an international health problem with high associated human and economic costs. The mortality rate from stroke in Russia is one of the highest in the world. Risk factors identification is therefore a high priority from the public health perspective. Epidemiological evidence suggests that binge drinking is an important determinant of high stroke mortality rate in Russia. The aim of the present study was to estimate the premature stroke mortality attributable to alcohol abuse in Russia on the basis of aggregate-level data of stroke mortality and alcohol consumption. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female stroke mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA time series analysis. The results of the analysis suggest that 26.8% of all male stroke deaths and 18.4% female stroke deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. The estimated alcohol-attributable fraction for men ranged from 16.2% (75+ age group) to 57,5% (30-44 age group) and for women from 21.7% (60-74 age group) and 43.5% (30- 44 age group). The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is an important contributor to the high stroke mortality rate in Russian Federation. Therefore prevention of alcohol-attributable harm should be a major public health priority in Russia. Given the distribution of alcohol-related stroke deaths, interventions should be focused on the young and middle-aged men and women.

Excess Mortality in Treated and Untreated Hyperthyroidism Is Related to Cumulative Periods of Low Serum TSH.

PubMed

Lillevang-Johansen, Mads; Abrahamsen, Bo; Jørgensen, Henrik Løvendahl; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2017-07-01

Cumulative time-dependent excess mortality in hyperthyroid patients has been suggested. However, the effect of antithyroid treatment on mortality, especially in subclinical hyperthyroidism, remains unclarified. We investigated the association between hyperthyroidism and mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroid individuals. Register-based cohort study of 235,547 individuals who had at least one serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) measurement in the period 1995 to 2011 (7.3 years median follow-up). Hyperthyroidism was defined as at least two measurements of low serum TSH. Mortality rates for treated and untreated hyperthyroid subjects compared with euthyroid controls were calculated using multivariate Cox regression analyses, controlling for age, sex, and comorbidities. Cumulative periods of decreased serum TSH were analyzed as a time-dependent covariate. Hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was increased in untreated [1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12 to 1.37; P < 0.001], but not in treated, hyperthyroid patients. When including cumulative periods of TSH in the Cox regression analyses, HR for mortality per every 6 months of decreased TSH was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.13; P < 0.0001) in untreated hyperthyroid patients (n = 1137) and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.15; P < 0.0001) in treated patients (n = 1656). This corresponds to a 184% and 239% increase in mortality after 5 years of decreased TSH in untreated and treated hyperthyroidism, respectively. Mortality is increased in hyperthyroidism. Cumulative periods of decreased TSH increased mortality in both treated and untreated hyperthyroidism, implying that excess mortality may not be driven by lack of therapy, but rather inability to keep patients euthyroid. Meticulous follow-up during treatment to maintain biochemical euthyroidism may be warranted. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Air pollution and associated human mortality: the role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases from the preindustrial period to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Y.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2013-02-01

Increases in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (≤2.5 μm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. We estimate changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 from pre-industrial (1860) to present (2000) and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We extend previous work to differentiate the contribution of changes in three factors: emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH4) concentrations, to air pollution levels and associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM2.5 and health-relevant O3 (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-h daily maximum O3 in a year) have increased by 8 ± 0.16 μg m-3 and 30 ± 0.16 ppbv (results reported as annual average ±standard deviation of 10-yr model simulations), respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH4 concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global population-weighted average PM2.5 (O35) to change by +7.5 ± 0.19 μg m-3 (+25 ± 0.30 ppbv), +0.4 ± 0.17 μg m-3 (+0.5 ± 0.28 ppbv), and 0.04 ± 0.24 μg m-3 (+4.3 ± 0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total global changes in PM2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-1.8) million cardiopulmonary mortalities and 95 (95% CI, 44-144) thousand lung cancer mortalities annually and changes in O3 are associated with 375 (95% CI, 129-592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95% and 85% of mortalities from PM2.5 and O3 respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH4 concentrations also contribute to premature mortality associated with air pollution globally (by up to 5% and 15%, respectively). In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH4 together are responsible for more than 20% of the respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH4 mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE PAGES

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-06-10

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

Mortality among Coast Guard Shipyard workers: A retrospective cohort study of specific exposures.

PubMed

Rusiecki, Jennifer; Stewart, Patricia; Lee, Dara; Alexander, Melannie; Krstev, Srmena; Silverman, Debra; Blair, Aaron

2018-01-02

In a previous analysis of a cohort of shipyard workers, we found excess mortality from all causes, lung cancer, and mesothelioma for longer work durations and in specific occupations. Here, we expand the previous analyses by evaluating mortality associated with 5 chemical exposures: asbestos, solvents, lead, oils/greases, and wood dust. Data were gathered retrospectively for 4,702 workers employed at the Coast Guard Shipyard, Baltimore, MD (1950-1964). The cohort was traced through 2001 for vital status. Associations between mortality and these 5 exposures were calculated via standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). We found all 5 substances to be independently associated with mortality from mesothelioma, cancer of the respiratory system, and lung cancer. Findings from efforts to evaluate solvents, lead, oils/greases, and wood dust in isolation of asbestos suggested that the excesses from these other exposures may be due to residual confounding from asbestos exposure.

Mortality among Japanese construction workers in Mie Prefecture

PubMed Central

Sun, J; Kubota, H; Hisanaga, N; Shibata, E; Kamijima, M; Nakamura, K

2002-01-01

Aims: A historical cohort mortality study was conducted among 17 668 members of the Construction Workers' Health Insurance Society of Mie Prefecture in Japan, in order to verify the relation between occupations and mortality status. Methods: The cohort was followed from 2 April 1973 to 1 April 1998. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated for all members and each job classification. Results: 98.7% of the members were traced successfully until the date when the follow up terminated. When all members were considered together, significant excess mortality was observed for "accidents and adverse effects". Significant excess mortalities were also observed for lung cancers among scaffold men and ironworkers, for cancer of the oesophagus among plumbers, and for "chronic liver disease and cirrhosis" among scaffold men and painters. Conclusion: Results suggest that more detailed investigations, which would include some minor job classifications should be undertaken. This is an updated cohort study which was partially completed in 1997. PMID:12151606

Career Excess Mortality Risk from Diagnostic Radiological Exams Required for Crewmembers Participating in Long Duration Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, C. W.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Picco, C. E.; Johnston, S. L.; Shavers, M. R.; VanBaalen, M.

2008-01-01

NASA requires astronauts to undergo diagnostic x-ray examinations as a condition for their employment. The purpose of these procedures is to assess the astronaut s overall health and to diagnose conditions that could jeopardize the success of long duration space missions. These include exams for acceptance into the astronaut corps, routine periodic exams, as well as evaluations taken pre and post missions. Issues: According to NASA policy these medical examinations are considered occupational radiological exposures, and thus, are included when computing the astronaut s overall radiation dose and associated excess cancer mortality risk. As such, astronauts and administrators are concerned about the amount of radiation received from these procedures due to the possibility that these additional doses may cause astronauts to exceed NASA s administrative limits, thus disqualifying them from future flights. Methods: Radiation doses and cancer mortality risks following required medical radiation exposures are presented herein for representative male and female astronaut careers. Calculation of the excess cancer mortality risk was performed by adapting NASA s operational risk assessment model. Averages for astronaut height, weight, number of space missions and age at selection into the astronaut corps were used as inputs to the NASA risk model. Conclusion: The results show that the level of excess cancer mortality imposed by all required medical procedures over an entire astronaut s career is approximately the same as that resulting from a single short duration space flight (i.e. space shuttle mission). In short the summation of all medical procedures involving ionizing radiation should have no impact on the number of missions an astronaut can fly over their career. Learning Objectives: 1. The types of diagnostic medical exams which astronauts are subjected to will be presented. 2. The level of radiation dose and excess mortality risk to the average male and female astronaut will be presented.

Stroke mortality associated with living near main roads in England and wales: a geographical study.

PubMed

Maheswaran, Ravi; Elliott, Paul

2003-12-01

Air pollution is associated with stroke, and road traffic is a major source of outdoor air pollution. Using proximity to roads as a proxy for exposure to road traffic pollution, we examined the hypothesis that living near main roads increases the risk of stroke mortality. We used a small-area ecological study design based on 113 465 census enumeration districts in England and Wales. Stroke mortality (International Classification of Disease, 9th revision, codes 430 through 438) in England and Wales from 1990 to 1992 for people >or=45 years of age was examined through the use of 1991 population denominators. Exposure was calculated as distance from each enumeration district population centroid to the nearest main road. We adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation (using Carstairs index), regional variation, urbanization, and metropolitan area using Poisson regression. The analysis was based on 189 966 stroke deaths and a population of 19 083 979. After adjustment for potential confounders, stroke mortality was 7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4 to 9) higher in men living within 200 m of a main road compared with men living >or=1000 m away. The corresponding increase in risk for women was 4% (95% CI, 2 to 6) and the risk for men and women combined was 5% (95% CI, 4 to 7). These raised risks diminished with increasing distance from main roads. Living near main roads is associated with excess risk of mortality from stroke, and if causality were assumed, approximately 990 stroke deaths per year would have been attributable to road traffic pollution.

Cancer mortality in the indigenous population of coastal Chukotka, 1961–1990

PubMed Central

Dudarev, Alexey A.; Chupakhin, Valery S.; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2013-01-01

Objectives The general aim was to assess the pattern and trend in cancer mortality among the indigenous people of coastal Chukotka during the period 1961–1990. Methods All cases of cancer deaths of indigenous residents of the Chukotsky district in the north-easternmost coast of Chukotka Autonomous Okrug were copied from personal death certificates. There were a total of 219 cancer deaths during the study period. The average annual number of cases, percent, crude, and age-standardized cancer mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 among men and women for all sites combined and selected sites were calculated. Data were aggregated into six 5-year periods to assess temporal trends. Direct age-standardization was performed with the Segi-Doll world standard population used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Results The indigenous Chukchi and Eskimo people living in Chukotsky district were at higher risk of death from cancer during the 30-year period between 1961 and 1990, with ASMR among men twice that of Russia, and among women 3.5 times higher. The excess can be attributed to the extremely high mortality from oesophageal cancer and lung cancer. Conclusions The indigenous people of coastal Chukotka were at very high risk of death from cancer relative to the Russian population nationally. The mortality data from this study correspond to the pattern of incidence reported among other indigenous people of the Russian Arctic. Little information is available since 1990, and the feasibility of ethnic-specific health data is now severely limited. PMID:23519821

Excess black mortality in the United States and in selected black and white high-poverty areas, 1980-2000.

PubMed

Geronimus, Arline T; Bound, John; Colen, Cynthia G

2011-04-01

Black working-aged residents of urban high-poverty areas suffered severe excess mortality in 1980 and 1990. Our goal in this study was to determine whether this trend persisted in 2000. We analyzed death certificate and census data to estimate age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality among 16- to 64-year-old Blacks and Whites nationwide and in selected urban and rural high-poverty areas. Urban men's mortality rate estimates peaked in 1990 and declined between 1990 and 2000 back to or below 1980 levels. Evidence of excess mortality declines among urban or rural women and among rural men was modest, with some increases. Between 1980 and 2000, there was little decline in chronic disease mortality among men and women in most areas, and in some instances there were increases. In 2000, despite improved economic conditions, working-age residents of the study areas still died disproportionately of early onset of chronic disease, suggesting an entrenched burden of disease and unmet health care needs. The lack of consistent improvement in death rates among working-age residents of high-poverty areas since 1980 necessitates reflection and concerted action given that sustainable progress has been elusive for this age group.

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-05-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007-2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12-3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30-5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42-4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0-15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02-9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03-19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67-22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou.

Mortality among Workers Exposed to Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in an Electrical Capacitor Manufacturing Plant in Indiana: An Update

PubMed Central

Ruder, Avima M.; Hein, Misty J.; Nilsen, Nancy; Waters, Martha A.; Laber, Patricia; Davis-King, Karen; Prince, Mary M.; Whelan, Elizabeth

2006-01-01

An Indiana capacitor-manufacturing cohort (n = 3,569) was exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from 1957 to 1977. The original study of mortality through 1984 found excess melanoma and brain cancer; other studies of PCB-exposed individuals have found excess non-Hodgkin lymphoma and rectal, liver, biliary tract, and gallbladder cancer. Mortality was updated through 1998. Analyses have included standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using rates for Indiana and the United States, standardized rate ratios (SRRs), and Poisson regression rate ratios (RRs). Estimated cumulative exposure calculations used a new job–exposure matrix. Mortality overall was reduced (547 deaths; SMR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.7–0.9). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality was elevated (9 deaths; SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.6–2.3). Melanoma remained in excess (9 deaths; SMR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.1–4.6), especially in the lowest tertile of estimated cumulative exposure (5 deaths; SMR, 3.72; 95% CI, 1.2–8.7). Seven of the 12 brain cancer deaths (SMR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.0–3.3) occurred after the original study. Brain cancer mortality increased with exposure (in the highest tertile, 5 deaths; SMR, 2.71; 95% CI, 0.9–6.3); the SRR dose–response trend was significant (p = 0.016). Among those working ≥90 days, both melanoma (8 deaths; SMR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.1–5.2) and brain cancer (11 deaths; SMR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.1–3.8) were elevated, especially for women: melanoma, 3 deaths (SMR, 5.99; 95% CI, 1.2–17.5); brain cancer, 3 deaths (SMR, 2.87; 95% CI, 0.6–8.4). These findings of excess melanoma and brain cancer mortality confirm results of the original study. Melanoma mortality was not associated with estimated cumulative exposure. Brain cancer mortality did not demonstrate a clear dose–response relationship with estimated cumulative exposure. PMID:16393652

The role of welfare state principles and generosity in social policy programmes for public health: an international comparative study.

PubMed

Lundberg, Olle; Yngwe, Monica Aberg; Stjärne, Maria Kölegård; Elstad, Jon Ivar; Ferrarini, Tommy; Kangas, Olli; Norström, Thor; Palme, Joakim; Fritzell, Johan

2008-11-08

Many important social determinants of health are also the focus for social policies. Welfare states contribute to the resources available for their citizens through cash transfer programmes and subsidised services. Although all rich nations have welfare programmes, there are clear cross-national differences with respect to their design and generosity. These differences are evident in national variations in poverty rates, especially among children and elderly people. We investigated to what extent variations in family and pension policies are linked to infant mortality and old-age excess mortality. Infant mortality rates and old-age excess mortality rates were analysed in relation to social policy characteristics and generosity. We did pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of 18 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries during the period 1970-2000 for family policies and 1950-2000 for pension policies. Increased generosity in family policies that support dual-earner families is linked with lower infant mortality rates, whereas the generosity in family policies that support more traditional families with gainfully employed men and homemaking women is not. An increase by one percentage point in dual-earner support lowers infant mortality by 0.04 deaths per 1000 births. Generosity in basic security type of pensions is linked to lower old-age excess mortality, whereas the generosity of earnings-related income security pensions is not. An increase by one percentage point in basic security pensions is associated with a decrease in the old age excess mortality by 0.02 for men as well as for women. The ways in which social policies are designed, as well as their generosity, are important for health because of the increase in resources that social policies entail. Hence, social policies are of major importance for how we can tackle the social determinants of health.

Prioritizing quality improvement in general surgery.

PubMed

Schilling, Peter L; Dimick, Justin B; Birkmeyer, John D

2008-11-01

Despite growing interest in quality improvement, uncertainty remains about which procedures offer the most room for improvement in general surgery. In this context, we sought to describe the relative contribution of different procedures to overall morbidity, mortality, and excess length of stay in general surgery. Using data from the American College of Surgeons' National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP), we identified all patients undergoing a general surgery procedure in 2005 and 2006 (n=129,233). Patients were placed in 36 distinct procedure groups based on Current Procedural Terminology codes. We first examined procedure groups according to their relative contribution to overall morbidity and mortality. We then assessed procedure groups according to their contribution to overall excess length of stay. Ten procedure groups alone accounted for 62% of complications and 54% of excess hospital days. Colectomy accounted for the greatest share of adverse events, followed by small intestine resection, inpatient cholecystectomy, and ventral hernia repair. In contrast, several common procedures contributed little to overall morbidity and mortality. For example, outpatient cholecystectomy, breast procedures, thyroidectomy, parathyroidectomy, and outpatient inguinal hernia repair together accounted for 34% of procedures, but only 6% of complications (and only 4% of major complications). These same procedures accounted for < 1% of excess hospital days. A relatively small number of procedures account for a disproportionate share of the morbidity, mortality, and excess hospital days in general surgery. Focusing quality improvement efforts on these procedures may be an effective strategy for improving patient care and reducing cost.

Attributable causes of cancer in Japan in 2005--systematic assessment to estimate current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan.

PubMed

Inoue, M; Sawada, N; Matsuda, T; Iwasaki, M; Sasazuki, S; Shimazu, T; Shibuya, K; Tsugane, S

2012-05-01

To contribute to evidence-based policy decision making for national cancer control, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the current burden of cancer attributable to known preventable risk factors in Japan in 2005. We first estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of each cancer attributable to known risk factors from relative risks derived primarily from Japanese pooled analyses and large-scale cohort studies and the prevalence of exposure in the period around 1990. Using nationwide vital statistics records and incidence estimates, we then estimated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2005. In 2005, ≈ 55% of cancer among men was attributable to preventable risk factors in Japan. The corresponding figure was lower among women, but preventable risk factors still accounted for nearly 30% of cancer. In men, tobacco smoking had the highest PAF (30% for incidence and 35% for mortality, respectively) followed by infectious agents (23% and 23%). In women, in contrast, infectious agents had the highest PAF (18% and 19% for incidence and mortality, respectively) followed by tobacco smoking (6% and 8%). In Japan, tobacco smoking and infections are major causes of cancer. Further control of these factors will contribute to substantial reductions in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Mortality in Postwar Japan

PubMed Central

TAPIA GRANADOS, JOSÉ A.

2008-01-01

Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45–64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility—making up about 41% of total mortality—tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don’t show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy. PMID:18613484

Assessment of the Impact of the 2003 and 2006 Heat Waves on Cattle Mortality in France

PubMed Central

Morignat, Eric; Perrin, Jean-Baptiste; Gay, Emilie; Vinard, Jean-Luc; Calavas, Didier; Hénaux, Viviane

2014-01-01

Objectives While several studies have highlighted and quantified human mortality during the major heat waves that struck Western Europe in 2003 and 2006, the impact on farm animals has been overlooked. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of these two events on cattle mortality in France, one of the most severely impacted countries. Methods Poisson regressions were used to model the national baseline for cattle mortality between 2004 and 2005 and predict the weekly number of expected deaths in 2003 and 2006 for the whole cattle population and by subpopulation based on age and type of production. Observed and estimated values were compared to identify and quantify excess mortality. The same approach was used at a departmental scale (a French department being an administrative and territorial division) to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of the mortality pattern. Results Overall, the models estimated relative excess mortality of 24% [95% confidence interval: 22–25%] for the two-week heat wave of 2003, and 12% [11–14%] for the three-week heat wave of 2006. In 2003, most cattle subpopulations were impacted during the heat wave and some in the following weeks too. In 2006, cattle subpopulations were impacted for a limited time only, with no excess mortality at the beginning or after the heat wave. No marked differences in cattle mortality were found among the different subpopulations by age and type of production. The implications of these results for risk prevention are discussed. PMID:24667835

Asbestos and cancer: a cohort followed up to death.

PubMed Central

Enterline, P E; Hartley, J; Henderson, V

1987-01-01

The mortality experience of 1074 white men who retired from a United States asbestos company during the period 1941-67 and who were exposed to asbestos working as production and maintenance employees for the company is reported to the end of 1980 when 88% of this cohort was known to be dead. As noted in earlier reports the mortality for respiratory and gastrointestinal cancer was raised. A more detailed examination of causes of death shows that the excess in gastrointestinal cancer was largely due to a statistically significant excess in stomach cancer. A statistically significant excess was also noted for kidney cancer, cancer of the eye, and non-malignant respiratory disease. Eight deaths from malignant mesothelioma were observed, two of which were peritoneal. Asbestos exposures for these mesothelioma cases were low relative to other members of the cohort. Continuing follow up of this cohort shows a dose response relation for respiratory cancer that has become increasingly linear. Standardised mortality ratios peaked 10 to 15 years after retirement and were relatively constant at around 250 in each five year interval starting in 1950. This excess might have been detected as early as 1960 but certainly by 1965. The mortality experience of this cohort reflects the ultimate effects of asbestos since nearly all of the cohort has now died. PMID:3606968

What are the health costs of uranium mining? A case study of miners in Grants, New Mexico

PubMed Central

Jones, Benjamin A

2014-01-01

Background: Uranium mining is associated with lung cancer and other health problems among miners. Health impacts are related with miner exposure to radon gas progeny. Objectives: This study estimates the health costs of excess lung cancer mortality among uranium miners in the largest uranium-producing district in the USA, centered in Grants, New Mexico. Methods: Lung cancer mortality rates on miners were used to estimate excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) among the miner population in Grants from 1955 to 2005. A cost analysis was performed to estimate direct (medical) and indirect (premature mortality) health costs. Results: Total health costs ranged from $2.2 million to $7.7 million per excess death. This amounts to between $22.4 million and $165.8 million in annual health costs over the 1955–1990 mining period. Annual exposure-related lung cancer mortality was estimated at 2185.4 miners per 100 000, with a range of 1419.8–2974.3 per 100 000. Conclusions: Given renewed interest in uranium worldwide, results suggest a re-evaluation of radon exposure standards and inclusion of miner long-term health into mining planning decisions. PMID:25224806

What are the health costs of uranium mining? A case study of miners in Grants, New Mexico.

PubMed

Jones, Benjamin A

2014-10-01

Uranium mining is associated with lung cancer and other health problems among miners. Health impacts are related with miner exposure to radon gas progeny. This study estimates the health costs of excess lung cancer mortality among uranium miners in the largest uranium-producing district in the USA, centered in Grants, New Mexico. Lung cancer mortality rates on miners were used to estimate excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) among the miner population in Grants from 1955 to 2005. A cost analysis was performed to estimate direct (medical) and indirect (premature mortality) health costs. Total health costs ranged from $2·2 million to $7·7 million per excess death. This amounts to between $22·4 million and $165·8 million in annual health costs over the 1955-1990 mining period. Annual exposure-related lung cancer mortality was estimated at 2185·4 miners per 100 000, with a range of 1419·8-2974·3 per 100 000. Given renewed interest in uranium worldwide, results suggest a re-evaluation of radon exposure standards and inclusion of miner long-term health into mining planning decisions.

Life Expectancy and Cause of Death in Popular Musicians: Is the Popular Musician Lifestyle the Road to Ruin?

PubMed

Kenny, Dianna T; Asher, Anthony

2016-03-01

Does a combination of lifestyle pressures and personality, as reflected in genre, lead to the early death of popular musicians? We explored overall mortality, cause of death, and changes in patterns of death over time and by music genre membership in popular musicians who died between 1950 and 2014. The death records of 13,195 popular musicians were coded for age and year of death, cause of death, gender, and music genre. Musician death statistics were compared with age-matched deaths in the US population using actuarial methods. Although the common perception is of a glamorous, free-wheeling lifestyle for this occupational group, the figures tell a very different story. Results showed that popular musicians have shortened life expectancy compared with comparable general populations. Results showed excess mortality from violent deaths (suicide, homicide, accidental death, including vehicular deaths and drug overdoses) and liver disease for each age group studied compared with population mortality patterns. These excess deaths were highest for the under-25-year age group and reduced chronologically thereafter. Overall mortality rates were twice as high compared with the population when averaged over the whole age range. Mortality impacts differed by music genre. In particular, excess suicides and liver-related disease were observed in country, metal, and rock musicians; excess homicides were observed in 6 of the 14 genres, in particular hip hop and rap musicians. For accidental death, actual deaths significantly exceeded expected deaths for country, folk, jazz, metal, pop, punk, and rock.

An Assessment of Health Risks and Mortality from Exposure to Secondhand Smoke in Chinese Restaurants and Bars

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruiling; Jiang, Yuan; Li, Qiang; Hammond, S. Katharine

2014-01-01

Introduction Smoking is generally not regulated in restaurants or bars in China, or the restrictions are not fully implemented if there are any, while the related hazard health effects are not recognized by the majority of the Chinese population. Objectives This study aims to assess the excess health risks and mortality attributed to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure in restaurants and bars for both servers and patrons to provide necessary evidence for advancing tobacco control in this microenvironment. Methods Two approaches were used for the assessment. One is a continuous approach based on existing field measurements and Repace and Lowrey’s dose-response model, and the other is a categorical approach based on exposure or not and epidemiological studies. Results Based on the continuous approach, servers were estimated to have a lifetime excess risk (LER) of lung cancer death (LCD) of 730 to 1,831×10−6 for working five days a week for 45 years in smoking restaurants and 1,862 to 8,136×10−6 in smoking bars, and patrons could have a LER of LCD of 47 to 117×10−6 due to visiting smoking restaurants for an average of 13 minutes a day for 60 years, and 119 to 522×10−6 due to visiting smoking bars. The categorical approach estimated that SHS exposure in restaurants and bars alone caused 84 LCD and 57 ischemic heart disease (IHD) deaths among nonsmoking servers and 1,2419 LCDs and 1,689 IHD deaths among the nonsmoking patron population. Conclusions SHS exposure in restaurants and bars alone can impose high lifetime excess risks of lung cancer death and ischemic heart disease deaths to both servers and patrons, and can cause a significant number of deaths each year in China. These health risks and deaths can be prevented by banning smoking in restaurants and bars and effectively implementing these smoking bans. PMID:24416289

Structured settlement annuities, part 2: mortality experience 1967--95 and the estimation of life expectancy in the presence of excess mortality.

PubMed

Singer, R B; Schmidt, C J

2000-01-01

the mortality experience for structured settlement (SS) annuitants issued both standard (Std) and substandard (SStd) has been reported twice previously by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), but the 1995 mortality described here has not previously been published. We describe in detail the 1995 SS mortality, and we also discuss the methodology of calculating life expectancy (e), contrasting three different life-table models. With SOA permission, we present in four tables the unpublished results of its 1995 SS mortality experience by Std and SStd issue, sex, and a combination of 8 age and 6 duration groups. Overall results on mortality expected from the 1983a Individual Annuity Table showed a mortality ratio (MR) of about 140% for Std cases and about 650% for all SStd cases. Life expectancy in a group with excess mortality may be computed by either adding the decimal excess death rate (EDR) to q' for each year of attained age to age 109 or multiplying q' by the decimal MR for each year to age 109. An example is given for men age 60 with localized prostate cancer; annual EDRs from a large published cancer study are used at duration 0-24 years, and the last EDR is assumed constant to age 109. This value of e is compared with e from constant initial values of EDR or MR after the first year. Interrelations of age, sex, e, and EDR and MR are discussed and illustrated with tabular data. It is shown that a constant MR for life-table calculation of e consistently overestimates projected annual mortality at older attained ages and underestimates e. The EDR method, approved for reserve calculations, is also recommended for use in underwriting conversion tables.

Race versus place of service in mortality among Medicare beneficiaries with cancer

PubMed Central

Onega, Tracy; Duell, Eric J.; Shi, Xun; Demidenko, Eugene; Goodman, David C.

2010-01-01

Background Evidence suggests that excess mortality among African-American cancer patients is explained in part by health care setting. Our objective was to compare mortality among African-American and Caucasian cancer patients and to evaluate the influence of NCI-Cancer Center attendance. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare beneficiaries with an incident diagnosis of lung, breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer from 1998–2002, as identified in SEER. Multivariate logistic regression models assessed the impact of NCI-Cancer Center attendance and race on all-cause and cancer-specific mortality at one and three years from diagnosis. Results Likelihoods of one- and three-year all-cause and cancer-specific mortality were higher for African-Americans than for Caucasians in crude and adjusted models (cancer-specific adjusted: Caucasian referent, 1year: OR=1.13; 95% CI 1.07–1.19, 3-year OR=1.23; 95% CI 1.17–1.30). By cancer site, cancer-specific mortality was higher among African-Americans at one year for breast and colorectal cancers and for all cancers at three years. NCI-Cancer Center attendance was associated with significantly lower odds of mortality for African-Americans (1-year: OR=0.63; 95% CI 0.56–0.76, 3-years: OR=0.71; 95% CI 0.62–0.81). The excess mortality risk among African-Americans was no longer observed for all-cause or cancer-specific mortality risk among patients attending NCI-Cancer Centers (Caucasian referent, cancer-specific mortality at:1-year: OR=0.95; 95% CI 0.76–1.19, 3-years: OR=1.00; 95% CI 0.82–1.21). Conclusions African-American Medicare beneficiaries with lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers have higher mortality compared to their Caucasian counterparts; however, there were no significant mortality differences by race among those attending NCI-Cancer Centers. This study suggests that place of service may explain some of the cancer mortality excess observed in African Americans. PMID:20309847

Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

PubMed Central

Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

2016-01-01

Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

Healthy Life-Years Lost and Excess Bed-Days Due to 6 Patient Safety Incidents: Empirical Evidence From English Hospitals.

PubMed

Hauck, Katharina D; Wang, Shaolin; Vincent, Charles; Smith, Peter C

2017-02-01

There is little satisfactory evidence on the harm of safety incidents to patients, in terms of lost potential health and life-years. To estimate the healthy life-years (HLYs) lost due to 6 incidents in English hospitals between the years 2005/2006 and 2009/2010, to compare burden across incidents, and estimate excess bed-days. The study used cross-sectional analysis of the medical records of all inpatients treated in 273 English hospitals. Patients with 6 types of preventable incidents were identified. Total attributable loss of HLYs was estimated through propensity score matching by considering the hypothetical remaining length and quality of life had the incident not occurred. The 6 incidents resulted in an annual loss of 68 HLYs and 934 excess bed-days per 100,000 population. Preventable pressure ulcers caused the loss of 26 HLYs and 555 excess bed-days annually. Deaths in low-mortality procedures resulted in 25 lost life-years and 42 bed-days. Deep-vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolisms cost 12 HLYs, and 240 bed-days. Postoperative sepsis, hip fractures, and central-line infections cost <6 HLYs and 100 bed-days each. The burden caused by the 6 incidents is roughly comparable with the UK burden of Multiple Sclerosis (80 DALYs per 100,000), HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (63 DALYs), and Cervical Cancer (58 DALYs). There were marked differences in the harm caused by the incidents, despite the public attention all of them receive. Decision makers can use the results to prioritize resources into further research and effective interventions.

Trends in mortality from occupational hazards among men in England and Wales during 1979-2010.

PubMed

Harris, E Clare; Palmer, Keith T; Cox, Vanessa; Darnton, Andrew; Osman, John; Coggon, David

2016-06-01

To monitor the impact of health and safety provisions and inform future preventive strategies, we investigated trends in mortality from established occupational hazards in England and Wales. We analysed data from death certificates on underlying cause of death and last full-time occupation for 3 688 916 deaths among men aged 20-74 years in England and Wales during 1979-2010 (excluding 1981 when records were incomplete). Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs), standardised for age and social class, were calculated for occupations at risk of specified hazards. Observed and expected numbers of deaths for each hazard were summed across occupations, and the differences summarised as average annual excesses. Excess mortality declined substantially for most hazards. For example, the annual excess of deaths from chronic bronchitis and emphysema fell from 170.7 during 1979-1990 to 36.0 in 2001-2010, and that for deaths from injury and poisoning from 237.0 to 87.5. In many cases, the improvements were associated with falling PMRs (suggesting safer working practices), but they also reflected reductions in the numbers of men employed in more hazardous jobs, and declining mortality from some diseases across the whole population. Notable exceptions to the general improvement were diseases caused by asbestos, especially in some construction trades and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. The highest priority for future prevention of work-related fatalities is the minority of occupational disorders for which excess mortality remains static or is increasing, in particular asbestos-related disease among certain occupations in the construction industry and sinonasal cancer in woodworkers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

All Rural Places Are Not Created Equal: Revisiting the Rural Mortality Penalty in the United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives. I investigated mortality disparities between urban and rural areas by measuring disparities in urban US areas compared with 6 rural classifications, ranging from suburban to remote locales. Methods. Data from the Compressed Mortality File, National Center for Health Statistics, from 1968 to 2007, was used to calculate age-adjusted mortality rates for all rural and urban regions by year. Criteria measuring disparity between regions included excess deaths, annual rate of change in mortality, and proportion of excess deaths by population size. I used multivariable analysis to test for differences in determinants across regions. Results. The rural mortality penalty existed in all rural classifications, but the degree of disparity varied considerably. Rural–urban continuum code 6 was highly disadvantaged, and rural–urban continuum code 9 displayed a favorable mortality profile. Population, socioeconomic, and health care determinants of mortality varied across regions. Conclusions. A 2-decade long trend in mortality disparities existed in all rural classifications, but the penalty was not distributed evenly. This constitutes an important public health problem. Research should target the slow rates of improvement in mortality in the rural United States as an area of concern. PMID:25211763

Mortality of white South African gold miners.

PubMed Central

Reid, P J; Sluis-Cremer, G K

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES--This two part study aimed to determine whether there was an excess mortality generally or for some diseases among middle aged white South African gold miners on the Witwatersrand and whether the underground dust exposure of these miners contributed to the development of lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or ischaemic heart disease (IHD). METHODS--A cohort of 4925 white miners in South Africa, born between 1 January 1916 and 31 December 1930 who were alive and working in the vicinity of Johannesburg on 1 January 1970, then aged between 39 and 54, was followed up for 20 years by which time 2032 had died. Most were gold miners (about 87% had worked 85% or more of their shifts in gold mines). Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated as percentages of the number of deaths observed in the cohort for a condition as stated on the death certificate divided by the number expected on the basis of concurrent mortality in the reference population (the total age specific white male population of South Africa). A case-control analysis was performed for three diseases (lung cancer, COPD, and IHD), the results of which are presented for those miners in the cohort who had spent at least 85% of their service on gold mines and had worked at least 15% of their shifts underground. RESULTS--The SMR for all causes of death was 129.6%, raised because of excess mortality due to the following causes: lung cancer (SMR = 139.8%), IHD (124.1%), COPD (189%) and cirrhosis of the liver (155.3%). Smoking was confirmed to be the main risk factor for lung cancer and COPD although cumulative dust exposure was found to increase the risk of COPD in conjunction with smoking. No significant risk of lung cancer resulted from exposure to dust. High blood pressure and smoking were found to increase the risk of IHD, but no association between IHD and the quetelet index (weight/height2) was found. CONCLUSIONS--The most significant and unexpected finding was the 30% increase in the SMR for all causes. Very little of this increase could be attributed to mining and the main factor for this was probably the adoption of an unhealthy lifestyle by these men (compared with other South African white men) particularly smoking (86% were smokers) and alcohol consumption. PMID:8563852

The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Zhao, Dong; Gu, Dongfeng; Coxson, Pamela; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Cheng, Jun; Liu, Jing; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2008-01-01

Background China will experience an overall growth and aging of its adult population in coming decades. We used a computer model to forecast the future impact of these demographic changes on coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. Methods The CHD Policy Model is a validated state-transition, computer simulation of CHD on a national scale. China-specific CHD risk factor, incidence, case-fatality, and prevalence data were incorporated, and a CHD prediction model was generated from a Chinese cohort study and calibrated to age-specific Chinese mortality rates. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CHD were calculated using standard methods. The projected population of China aged 35–84 years was entered, and CHD events, deaths, and DALYs were simulated over 2000–2029. CHD risk factors other than age and case-fatality were held at year 2000 levels. Sensitivity analyses tested uncertainty regarding CHD mortality coding, the proportion of total deaths attributable to CHD, and case-fatality. Results We predicted 7.8 million excess CHD events (a 69% increase) and 3.4 million excess CHD deaths (a 64% increase) in the decade 2020–2029 compared with 2000–2009. For 2030, we predicted 71% of almost one million annual CHD deaths will occur in persons ≥65 years old, while 67% of the growing annual burden of CHD death and disability will weigh on adults <65 years old. Substituting alternate CHD mortality assumptions led to 17–20% more predicted CHD deaths over 2000–2029, though the pattern of increases in CHD events and deaths over time remained. Conclusion We forecast that absolute numbers of CHD events and deaths will increase dramatically in China over 2010–2029, due to a growing and aging population alone. Recent data suggest CHD risk factor levels are increasing, so our projections may underestimate the extent of the potential CHD epidemic in China. PMID:19036167

Cancers attributable to excess body weight in Canada in 2010.

PubMed

Zakaria, Dianne; Shaw, Amanda

2017-07-01

Excess body weight (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 25.00 kg/m2) is an established risk factor for diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, but its relationship to cancer is lesser-known. This study used population attributable fractions (PAFs) to estimate the cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in Canadian adults (aged 25+ years) in 2010. We estimated PAFs using relative risk (RR) estimates from the World Cancer Research Fund International Continuous Update Project, BMI-based estimates of overweight (25.00 kg/m2-29.99 kg/m2) and obesity (30.00+ kg/m2) from the 2000-2001 Canadian Community Health Survey, and cancer case counts from the Canadian Cancer Registry. PAFs were based on BMI corrected for the bias in self-reported height and weight. In Canada in 2010, an estimated 9645 cancer cases were attributable to excess body weight, representing 5.7% of all cancer cases (males 4.9%, females 6.5%). When limiting the analysis to types of cancer associated with high BMI, the PAF increased to 14.9% (males 17.5%, females 13.3%). Types of cancer with the highest PAFs were esophageal adenocarcinoma (42.2%), kidney (25.4%), gastric cardia (20.7%), liver (20.5%), colon (20.5%) and gallbladder (20.2%) for males, and esophageal adenocarcinoma (36.1%), uterus (35.2%), gallbladder (23.7%) and kidney (23.0%) for females. Types of cancer with the greatest number of attributable cases were colon (1445), kidney (780) and advanced prostate (515) for males, and uterus (1825), postmenopausal breast (1765) and colon (675) for females. Irrespective of sex or type of cancer, PAFs were highest in the Prairies (except Alberta) and the Atlantic region and lowest in British Columbia and Quebec. The cancer burden attributable to excess body weight is substantial and will continue to rise in the near future because of the rising prevalence of overweight and obesity in Canada.

Burden of disease attributed to ambient air pollution in Thailand: A GIS-based approach

PubMed Central

Pinichka, Chayut; Makka, Nuttapat; Sukkumnoed, Decharut; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Inchai, Puchong

2017-01-01

Background Growing urbanisation and population requiring enhanced electricity generation as well as the increasing numbers of fossil fuel in Thailand pose important challenges to air quality management which impacts on the health of the population. Mortality attributed to ambient air pollution is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We estimated the spatial pattern of mortality burden attributable to selected ambient air pollution in 2009 based on the empirical evidence in Thailand. Methods We estimated the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution based on the comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). We integrated geographical information systems (GIS)-based exposure assessments into spatial interpolation models to estimate ambient air pollutant concentrations, the population distribution of exposure and the concentration-response (CR) relationship to quantify ambient air pollution exposure and associated mortality. We obtained air quality data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand surface air pollution monitoring network sources and estimated the CR relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentration of air pollutants from the epidemiological literature. Results We estimated 650–38,410 ambient air pollution-related fatalities and 160–5,982 fatalities that could have been avoided with a 20 reduction in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The summation of population-attributable fraction (PAF) of the disease burden for all-causes mortality in adults due to NO2 and PM2.5 were the highest among all air pollutants at 10% and 7.5%, respectively. The PAF summation of PM2.5 for lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were 16.8% and 14.6% respectively and the PAF summations of mortality attributable to PM10 was 3.4% for all-causes mortality, 1.7% for respiratory and 3.8% for cardiovascular mortality, while the PAF summation of mortality attributable to NO2 was 7.8% for respiratory mortality in Thailand. Conclusion Mortality due to ambient air pollution in Thailand varies across the country. Geographical distribution estimates can identify high exposure areas for planners and policy-makers. Our results suggest that the benefits of a 20% reduction in ambient air pollution concentration could prevent up to 25% of avoidable fatalities each year in all-causes, respiratory and cardiovascular categories. Furthermore, our findings can provide guidelines for future epidemiological investigations and policy decisions to achieve the SDGs. PMID:29267319

The burden of COPD mortality due to ambient air pollution in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Yang, Jun; Song, Yun-Feng; Chen, Ping-Yan; Ou, Chun-Quan

2016-01-01

Few studies have investigated the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality fraction attributable to air pollution and modification by individual characteristics of air pollution effects. We applied distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality in 2007–2011 in Guangzhou, China, and the total COPD mortality fraction attributable to air pollution was calculated as well. We found that an increase of 10 μg/m3 in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was associated with a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12–3.06%), 3.45% (95% CI: 1.30–5.66%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.42–4.32%) increase of COPD mortality over a lag of 0–15 days, respectively. Greater air pollution effects were observed in the elderly, males and residents with low educational attainment. The results showed 10.91% (95% CI: 1.02–9.58%), 12.71% (95% CI: 5.03–19.85%) and 13.38% (95% CI: 2.67–22.84%) COPD mortality was attributable to current PM10, SO2 and NO2 exposure, respectively. In conclusion, the associations between air pollution and COPD mortality differed by individual characteristics. There were remarkable COPD mortality burdens attributable to air pollution in Guangzhou. PMID:27195597

Modeling organizational determinants of hospital mortality.

PubMed Central

al-Haider, A S; Wan, T T

1991-01-01

This study examines hospital characteristics that affect the differential in hospital mortality. Death rates for 1984 Medicare inpatients in acute care hospitals, released by the Health Care Financing Administration in 1986, were analyzed. A confirmatory statistical approach to organizational determinants of hospital mortality was formulated and validated through an empirical examination of 239 hospitals. The findings suggest that the effect of hospital size and specialization on mortality was a spurious one when the effects of other variables were simultaneously controlled. A positive association existed between service intensity and hospital mortality: the more hospital services consumed, the higher the mortality rate. Community attributes accounted for more variance in hospital mortality rates than did organizational attributes. The organizational and community factors studied explained 27 percent of the total variance in hospital mortality. PMID:1869442

Mortality attributable to tobacco among men in Sweden and other European countries: an analysis of data in a WHO report.

PubMed

Ramström, Lars; Wikmans, Tom

2014-01-01

It is well known that Swedish men have lower tobacco-related mortality than men in other European countries, but there are questions that need further investigation to what extent this is related to the specific patterns of tobacco use in Sweden, where use of snus, the Swedish low-nitrosamine oral tobacco, dominates over smoking in men but not in women. The recent WHO Global Report: Mortality Attributable to Tobacco provides a unique set of estimates of the health burden of tobacco in all countries of the world in the year 2004, and these data can help elucidating the above-mentioned questions. For Sweden and all other European Union Member States mortality data for a number of tobacco-related causes of death were extracted from the WHO Report. The size of the mortality advantage for selected causes of death in different age groups of Swedish men compared to men of the same age in Europe as a whole was calculated in terms of ratios of death rates attributable to tobacco. Differences between age groups with respect to tobacco-related mortality were analyzed with respect to differences in terms of development and status of smoking and snus use. The analyses also paid attention to differences between countries regarding tobacco control regulations. Among men in the European Union Member States the lowest level of mortality attributable to tobacco was consistently found in Sweden, while Swedish women showed levels similar to European average. A strong co-variation was found between the mortality advantage and the degree of dominance of snus use in the different age groups of Swedish men. Among Swedish women there are no age groups with dominant use of snus, and similar observations were therefore not possible for women. The above findings support the assumption that the widespread use of snus instead of cigarettes among Swedish men may be a major part of the explanation behind their position with Europe's lowest mortality attributable to tobacco.

Global mortality attributable to aircraft cruise emissions.

PubMed

Barrett, Steven R H; Britter, Rex E; Waitz, Ian A

2010-10-01

Aircraft emissions impact human health though degradation of air quality. The majority of previous analyses of air quality impacts from aviation have considered only landing and takeoff emissions. We show that aircraft cruise emissions impact human health over a hemispheric scale and provide the first estimate of premature mortalities attributable to aircraft emissions globally. We estimate ∼8000 premature mortalities per year are attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. This represents ∼80% of the total impact of aviation (where the total includes the effects of landing and takeoff emissions), and ∼1% of air quality-related premature mortalities from all sources. However, we note that the impact of landing and takeoff emissions is likely to be under-resolved. Secondary H(2)SO(4)-HNO(3)-NH(3) aerosols are found to dominate mortality impacts. Due to the altitude and region of the atmosphere at which aircraft emissions are deposited, the extent of transboundary air pollution is particularly strong. For example, we describe how strong zonal westerly winds aloft, the mean meridional circulation around 30-60°N, interaction of aircraft-attributable aerosol precursors with background ammonia, and high population densities in combination give rise to an estimated ∼3500 premature mortalities per year in China and India combined, despite their relatively small current share of aircraft emissions. Subsidence of aviation-attributable aerosol and aerosol precursors occurs predominantly around the dry subtropical ridge, which results in reduced wet removal of aviation-attributable aerosol. It is also found that aircraft NO(x) emissions serve to increase oxidation of nonaviation SO(2), thereby further increasing the air quality impacts of aviation. We recommend that cruise emissions be explicitly considered in the development of policies, technologies and operational procedures designed to mitigate the air quality impacts of air transportation.

Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in Qingdao, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yani; Qi, Fei; Jia, Xiaorong; Lin, Peng; Liu, Hui; Geng, Meiyun; Liu, Yunning; Li, Shanpeng; Tan, Jibin

2016-09-09

In China, smoking is the leading preventable cause of deaths by a disease. Estimating the disease burden attributable to smoking contributes to an evaluation of the adverse impact of smoking. To aid in policy change and implementation, this study estimated the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking, the all-cause mortality and the loss of life expectancy attributable to smoking in 2014 of Qingdao. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio (SIR) or current smoking rate (P) and relative risk (RR). We determined the smoking-attributable mortality by multiplying the smoking-attributable fraction by the total mortality. This study used the method of an abridged life table to calculate the loss of life expectancy caused by smoking. Smoking caused about 8635 deaths (6883 males, 1752 females), and accounted for 16% of all deaths; 22% in males and 8% in females. The leading causes of deaths attributable to smoking were lung cancer (38%), ischemic heart disease (19%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 12%). The PAF for all causes was 22%; 30% in males and 10% in females. Tobacco use may cause a reduction of about 2.01 years of the loss of life expectancy; 3 years in males and 0.87 years in females. The findings highlight the need for taking effective measures to prevent initiation and induce cessation.

Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Cigarette Smoking in Qingdao, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yani; Qi, Fei; Jia, Xiaorong; Lin, Peng; Liu, Hui; Geng, Meiyun; Liu, Yunning; Li, Shanpeng; Tan, Jibin

2016-01-01

In China, smoking is the leading preventable cause of deaths by a disease. Estimating the disease burden attributable to smoking contributes to an evaluation of the adverse impact of smoking. To aid in policy change and implementation, this study estimated the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of smoking, the all-cause mortality and the loss of life expectancy attributable to smoking in 2014 of Qingdao. PAFs were calculated using the smoking impact ratio (SIR) or current smoking rate (P) and relative risk (RR). We determined the smoking-attributable mortality by multiplying the smoking-attributable fraction by the total mortality. This study used the method of an abridged life table to calculate the loss of life expectancy caused by smoking. Smoking caused about 8635 deaths (6883 males, 1752 females), and accounted for 16% of all deaths; 22% in males and 8% in females. The leading causes of deaths attributable to smoking were lung cancer (38%), ischemic heart disease (19%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 12%). The PAF for all causes was 22%; 30% in males and 10% in females. Tobacco use may cause a reduction of about 2.01 years of the loss of life expectancy; 3 years in males and 0.87 years in females. The findings highlight the need for taking effective measures to prevent initiation and induce cessation. PMID:27618084

Cigarette smoking and poverty in China.

PubMed

Liu, Yuanli; Rao, Keqin; Hu, Teh-Wei; Sun, Qi; Mao, Zhenzhong

2006-12-01

Drawing on the 1998 China national health services survey data, this study estimated the poverty impact of two smoking-related expenses: excessive medical spending attributable to smoking and direct spending on cigarettes. The excessive medical spending attributable to smoking is estimated using a regression model of medical expenditure with smoking status (current smoker, former smoker, never smoker) as part of the explanatory variables, controlling for people's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The poverty impact is measured by the changes in the poverty head count, after smoking-related expenses are subtracted from income. We found that the excessive medical spending attributable to smoking may have caused the poverty rate to increase by 1.5% for the urban population and by 0.7% for the rural population. To a greater magnitude, the poverty headcount in urban and rural areas increased by 6.4% and 1.9%, respectively, due to the direct household spending on cigarettes. Combined, the excessive medical spending attributable to smoking and consumption spending on cigarettes are estimated to be responsible for impoverishing 30.5 million urban residents and 23.7 million rural residents in China. Smoking related expenses pushed a significant proportion of low-income families into poverty in China. Therefore, reducing the smoking rate appears to be not only a public health strategy, but also a poverty reduction strategy.

The human sex ratio from conception to birth

PubMed Central

Orzack, Steven Hecht; Stubblefield, J. William; Akmaev, Viatcheslav R.; Colls, Pere; Munné, Santiago; Scholl, Thomas; Steinsaltz, David; Zuckerman, James E.

2015-01-01

We describe the trajectory of the human sex ratio from conception to birth by analyzing data from (i) 3- to 6-d-old embryos, (ii) induced abortions, (iii) chorionic villus sampling, (iv) amniocentesis, and (v) fetal deaths and live births. Our dataset is the most comprehensive and largest ever assembled to estimate the sex ratio at conception and the sex ratio trajectory and is the first, to our knowledge, to include all of these types of data. Our estimate of the sex ratio at conception is 0.5 (proportion male), which contradicts the common claim that the sex ratio at conception is male-biased. The sex ratio among abnormal embryos is male-biased, and the sex ratio among normal embryos is female-biased. These biases are associated with the abnormal/normal state of the sex chromosomes and of chromosomes 15 and 17. The sex ratio may decrease in the first week or so after conception (due to excess male mortality); it then increases for at least 10–15 wk (due to excess female mortality), levels off after ∼20 wk, and declines slowly from 28 to 35 wk (due to excess male mortality). Total female mortality during pregnancy exceeds total male mortality. The unbiased sex ratio at conception, the increase in the sex ratio during the first trimester, and total mortality during pregnancy being greater for females are fundamental insights into early human development. PMID:25825766

A Case Report of Cushing's Disease Presenting as Hair Loss

PubMed Central

Lefkowitz, Emily G.; Cossman, Jack P.; Fournier, John B.

2017-01-01

Cushing's syndrome is a rare endocrine disorder that comprises a large group of signs and symptoms resulting from chronic exposure to excess corticosteroids. Most cases of Cushing's syndrome are due to increased adrenocorticotropic hormone production from a pituitary adenoma, which is referred to as Cushing's disease. Most of the signs and symptoms are nonspecific and common in the general population, making a diagnosis often challenging. However, several dermatological manifestations, such as fragile skin, easy bruising, and reddish purple striae, are more discriminatory. Because uncontrolled Cushing's syndrome of any etiology is associated with substantial morbidity, including increased cardiovascular disease and mortality, it is important to make an early diagnosis. Unfortunately, median delays of 2 years to diagnosis have been reported. We report a case of a woman who had multiple dermatological findings, including facial plethora, easy bruising, violaceous striae, hirsutism, and acne, the latter 2 signs reflecting androgen excess. Of interest, our patient presented with a chief complaint of hair loss, a common complaint in the general population that occurs with a greater frequency in patients with Cushing's disease and is attributed to androgenetic alopecia, but it is rarely the presenting symptom. PMID:28413388

A Case Report of Cushing's Disease Presenting as Hair Loss.

PubMed

Lefkowitz, Emily G; Cossman, Jack P; Fournier, John B

2017-01-01

Cushing's syndrome is a rare endocrine disorder that comprises a large group of signs and symptoms resulting from chronic exposure to excess corticosteroids. Most cases of Cushing's syndrome are due to increased adrenocorticotropic hormone production from a pituitary adenoma, which is referred to as Cushing's disease. Most of the signs and symptoms are nonspecific and common in the general population, making a diagnosis often challenging. However, several dermatological manifestations, such as fragile skin, easy bruising, and reddish purple striae, are more discriminatory. Because uncontrolled Cushing's syndrome of any etiology is associated with substantial morbidity, including increased cardiovascular disease and mortality, it is important to make an early diagnosis. Unfortunately, median delays of 2 years to diagnosis have been reported. We report a case of a woman who had multiple dermatological findings, including facial plethora, easy bruising, violaceous striae, hirsutism, and acne, the latter 2 signs reflecting androgen excess. Of interest, our patient presented with a chief complaint of hair loss, a common complaint in the general population that occurs with a greater frequency in patients with Cushing's disease and is attributed to androgenetic alopecia, but it is rarely the presenting symptom.

War, famine and excess child mortality in Africa: the role of parental education.

PubMed

Kiros, G E; Hogan, D P

2001-06-01

Civilian-targeted warfare and famine constitute two of the greatest public health challenges of our time. Both have devastated many countries in Africa. Social services, and in particular, health services, have been destroyed. Dictatorial and military governments have used the withholding of food as a political weapon to exacerbate human suffering. Under such circumstances, war and famine are expected to have catastrophic impacts on child survival. This study examines the role of parental education in reducing excess child mortality in Africa by considering Tigrai-Ethiopia, which was severely affected by famine and civil war during 1973--1991. This study uses data from the 1994 Housing and Population Census of Ethiopia and on communities' vulnerability to food crises. Child mortality levels and trends by various subgroups are estimated using indirect methods of mortality estimation techniques. A Poisson regression model is used to examine the relationship between number of children dead and parental education. Although child mortality is excessively high (about 200 deaths per 1000 births), our results show enormous variations in child mortality by parental education. Child mortality is highest among children born to illiterate mothers and illiterate fathers. Our results also show that the role of parental education in reducing child mortality is great during famine periods. In the communities devastated by war, however, its impact was significant only when the father has above primary education. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that both mother's and father's education are significantly and negatively associated with child mortality, although this effect diminishes over time if the crisis is severe and prolonged. The policy implications of our study include, obviously, reducing armed conflict, addressing food security in a timely manner, and expansion of educational opportunities.

Causes of death in rheumatoid arthritis: How do they compare to the general population?

PubMed

Widdifield, Jessica; Paterson, J Michael; Huang, Anjie; Bernatsky, Sasha

2018-03-07

To compare mortality rates, underlying causes of death, excess mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients relative to the general population. We studied an inception cohort of 87,114 Ontario RA patients and 348,456 age/sex/area-matched general population comparators over 2000 to 2013. All-cause, cause-specific, and excess mortality rates, mortality rate ratios (MRRs), and YPLL were estimated. A total of 11,778 (14% of) RA patients and 32,472 (9% of) comparators died during 508,385 and 1,769,365 person-years (PY) of follow-up, respectively, for corresponding mortality rates of 232 (95% CI 228, 236) and 184 (95% CI 182, 186) per 10,000 PYs. Leading causes of death in both groups were diseases of the circulatory system, cancer, and respiratory conditions. Increased mortality for all-cause and specific causes was observed in RA relative to the general population. MRRs were elevated for most causes of death. Age-specific mortality ratios illustrated a high excess mortality among RA patients under 45 years of age for respiratory disease and circulatory disease. RA patients lost 7,436 potential years of life per 10,000 persons, compared with 4,083 YPLL among those without RA. Mortality rates were increased in RA patients relative to the general population across most causes of death. The potential life years lost (before the age of 75) among RA patients was roughly double that among those without RA, reflecting higher rate ratios for most causes of death and RA patients dying at earlier ages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study.

PubMed

Hacking, John M; Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-02-15

To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health.

Ovarian cancer mortality and industrial pollution.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Javier; Lope, Virginia; López-Abente, Gonzalo; González-Sánchez, Mario; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo

2015-10-01

We investigated whether there might be excess ovarian cancer mortality among women residing near Spanish industries, according to different categories of industrial groups and toxic substances. An ecologic study was designed to examine ovarian cancer mortality at a municipal level (period 1997-2006). Population exposure to pollution was estimated by means of distance from town to facility. Using Poisson regression models, we assessed the relative risk of dying from ovarian cancer in zones around installations, and analyzed the effect of industrial groups and pollutant substances. Excess ovarian cancer mortality was detected in the vicinity of all sectors combined, and, principally, near refineries, fertilizers plants, glass production, paper production, food/beverage sector, waste treatment plants, pharmaceutical industry and ceramic. Insofar as substances were concerned, statistically significant associations were observed for installations releasing metals and polycyclic aromatic chemicals. These results support that residing near industries could be a risk factor for ovarian cancer mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality of populations residing in geothermal areas of Tuscany during the period 2003-2012.

PubMed

Bustaffa, Elisa; Minichilli, Fabrizio; Nuvolone, Daniela; Voller, Fabio; Cipriani, Francesco; Bianchi, Fabrizio

2017-01-01

The limited scientific knowledge on the relationship between exposure and health effects in relation to geothermal activity motivated an epidemiologic investigation of Tuscan geothermal area. This study aims at describing mortality of populations living in Tuscan municipalities in the period 2003-2012. Sixteen municipalities were included in the study area: eight in the northern and eight in the southern area. Mortality data come from the Regional Mortality Registry of Tuscany. Fifty-four causes of death, considered of interest for population health status or consistent with "Project SENTIERI" criteria, are analyzed. Results show a worse mortality profile in the southern area, especially in males, for whom excesses of all cancers and some causes of cancer emerge, while in the northern area an excess of cerebrovascular diseases among females merits attention. Further and more appropriate studies are needed to clarify the etiology of some diseases and to better assess a potential cause-effect relationship.

[Environment and health in Taranto, southern Italy: epidemiological studies and public health recommendations].

PubMed

Comba, Pietro; Pirastu, Roberta; Conti, Susanna; De Santis, Marco; Iavarone, Ivano; Marsili, Giovanni; Mincuzzi, Antonia; Minelli, Giada; Manno, Valerio; Minerba, Sante; Musmeci, Loredana; Rashid, Ivan; Soggiu, Eleonora; Zona, Amerigo

2012-01-01

in Taranto IPS (Italian polluted site, made up of 2 municipalities) the Decree defining site boundaries lists the presence of a refinery, a steel plant, a harbour area and waste landfills together with illegal dumping sites. Previous environmental and epidemiological investigations in the area documented the presence of environmental contamination and increased mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as well as a number of cancer sites; for these same health outcomes the cohort study of residents showed increased risk both in terms of mortality and morbidity. to describe the health status of residents in Taranto IPS analyzing different health indicators available at municipal level, i.e. mortality (2003-2009), mortality time trend (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006-2007). the analyses were carried out for residents in Taranto IPS. Mortality update (SENTIERI Project, 2003-2009) regards 63 single or grouped causes (all ages, both genders); for a selection of causes 0-1 and 0-14 age classes were analyzed (both genders combined). Standardized mortality ratio crude (SMR) and deprivation adjusted together with 90% confidence intervals (90%CI) were computed using regional rates for comparison. Mortality time trend (1980-2008, triennial intervals) were analyzed calculating standardized rates (0-99 years, both genders, per 100,000, Italian population at 2001 Census as reference) and 90%CI. Time trends were computed for all causes, all neoplasms (and lung cancer), cardiovascular diseases (and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (also acute and chronic) and all causes infant mortality (both genders combined). For cancer incidence (2006-2007) Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 90%CI were calculated for both genders; incidence rates of cancer registries of the macroarea South and Islands (2005-2007) and rates of Taranto Province excluding SIN municipalities (2006-2007) were used for comparison. in Taranto IPS mortality among men is in excess in both periods (SENTIERI Project 1995-2002 and 2003-2009) for all causes, all neoplasms (including lung and pleural cancer), dementia, cardiovascular diseases (including hypertension and ischemic heart diseases), respiratory diseases (including the acute ones) and digestive diseases (including liver cirrhosis). All causes infant mortality is in excess in both periods. Time trends show that Taranto IPS rates are higher than regional average in the majority of time intervals for most causes in both genders. Rates are often higher than national average form any triennial intervals. Among males, over the whole period, mortality in Taranto IPS is higher than regional and national average for causes as lung cancer, diseases of the respiratory system, including the chronic ones. Among females, since the early Nineties, lung cancer and ischemic heart diseases are in excess in Taranto IPS. Also infant mortality is higher for the whole period in Taranto IPS than regional and national averages. Cancer incidence results show excesses for cancer sites already indicated by mortality data. mortality analyzed in the context of SENTIERI Project (1995-2002 and 2003-2009), time trend mortality (1980-2008) and cancer incidence (2006- 2007) show, in both genders, excesses for causes for which an etiologic role of environmental exposure present in Taranto IPS are either ascertained or suspected on the basis of a priori evaluation of the epidemiological evidence. The finding of excess infant mortality is of the utmost importance in public health terms. Most diseases showing an increased risk have multifactorial etiology, therefore interventions of proven efficacy, such as smoking cessation, food education, measures for cardiovascular risk reduction and breast cancer and colon screening programmes should be planned. To build a climate of confidence and trust between citizens and public institutions study results and public health actions are to be communicated objectively and transparently.

Exploring mechanisms of excess mortality with early fluid resuscitation: insights from the FEAST trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Early rapid fluid resuscitation (boluses) in African children with severe febrile illnesses increases the 48-hour mortality by 3.3% compared with controls (no bolus). We explored the effect of boluses on 48-hour all-cause mortality by clinical presentation at enrolment, hemodynamic changes over the first hour, and on different modes of death, according to terminal clinical events. We hypothesize that boluses may cause excess deaths from neurological or respiratory events relating to fluid overload. Methods Pre-defined presentation syndromes (PS; severe acidosis or severe shock, respiratory, neurological) and predominant terminal clinical events (cardiovascular collapse, respiratory, neurological) were described by randomized arm (bolus versus control) in 3,141 severely ill febrile children with shock enrolled in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial. Landmark analyses were used to compare early mortality in treatment groups, conditional on changes in shock and hypoxia parameters. Competing risks methods were used to estimate cumulative incidence curves and sub-hazard ratios to compare treatment groups in terms of terminal clinical events. Results Of 2,396 out of 3,141 (76%) classifiable participants, 1,647 (69%) had a severe metabolic acidosis or severe shock PS, 625 (26%) had a respiratory PS and 976 (41%) had a neurological PS, either alone or in combination. Mortality was greatest among children fulfilling criteria for all three PS (28% bolus, 21% control) and lowest for lone respiratory (2% bolus, 5% control) or neurological (3% bolus, 0% control) presentations. Excess mortality in bolus arms versus control was apparent for all three PS, including all their component features. By one hour, shock had resolved (responders) more frequently in bolus versus control groups (43% versus 32%, P <0.001), but excess mortality with boluses was evident in responders (relative risk 1.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 4.17, P = 0.06) and 'non-responders' (relative risk 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 2.28, P = 0.001), with no evidence of heterogeneity (P = 0.68). The major difference between bolus and control arms was the higher proportion of cardiogenic or shock terminal clinical events in bolus arms (n = 123; 4.6% versus 2.6%, P = 0.008) rather than respiratory (n = 61; 2.2% versus 1.3%, P = 0.09) or neurological (n = 63, 2.1% versus 1.8%, P = 0.6) terminal clinical events. Conclusions Excess mortality from boluses occurred in all subgroups of children. Contrary to expectation, cardiovascular collapse rather than fluid overload appeared to contribute most to excess deaths with rapid fluid resuscitation. These results should prompt a re-evaluation of evidence on fluid resuscitation for shock and a re-appraisal of the rate, composition and volume of resuscitation fluids. Trial registration ISRCTN69856593 PMID:23496872

Exploring mechanisms of excess mortality with early fluid resuscitation: insights from the FEAST trial.

PubMed

Maitland, Kathryn; George, Elizabeth C; Evans, Jennifer A; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Akech, Samuel O; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Brent, Bernadette; Nteziyaremye, Julius; Mpoya, Ayub; Prevatt, Natalie; Dambisya, Cornelius M; Semakula, Daniel; Ddungu, Ahmed; Okuuny, Vicent; Wokulira, Ronald; Timbwa, Molline; Otii, Benedict; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Babiker, Abdel G; Gibb, Diana M

2013-03-14

Early rapid fluid resuscitation (boluses) in African children with severe febrile illnesses increases the 48-hour mortality by 3.3% compared with controls (no bolus). We explored the effect of boluses on 48-hour all-cause mortality by clinical presentation at enrolment, hemodynamic changes over the first hour, and on different modes of death, according to terminal clinical events. We hypothesize that boluses may cause excess deaths from neurological or respiratory events relating to fluid overload. Pre-defined presentation syndromes (PS; severe acidosis or severe shock, respiratory, neurological) and predominant terminal clinical events (cardiovascular collapse, respiratory, neurological) were described by randomized arm (bolus versus control) in 3,141 severely ill febrile children with shock enrolled in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial. Landmark analyses were used to compare early mortality in treatment groups, conditional on changes in shock and hypoxia parameters. Competing risks methods were used to estimate cumulative incidence curves and sub-hazard ratios to compare treatment groups in terms of terminal clinical events. Of 2,396 out of 3,141 (76%) classifiable participants, 1,647 (69%) had a severe metabolic acidosis or severe shock PS, 625 (26%) had a respiratory PS and 976 (41%) had a neurological PS, either alone or in combination. Mortality was greatest among children fulfilling criteria for all three PS (28% bolus, 21% control) and lowest for lone respiratory (2% bolus, 5% control) or neurological (3% bolus, 0% control) presentations. Excess mortality in bolus arms versus control was apparent for all three PS, including all their component features. By one hour, shock had resolved (responders) more frequently in bolus versus control groups (43% versus 32%, P <0.001), but excess mortality with boluses was evident in responders (relative risk 1.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 4.17, P = 0.06) and 'non-responders' (relative risk 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 2.28, P = 0.001), with no evidence of heterogeneity (P = 0.68). The major difference between bolus and control arms was the higher proportion of cardiogenic or shock terminal clinical events in bolus arms (n = 123; 4.6% versus 2.6%, P = 0.008) rather than respiratory (n = 61; 2.2% versus 1.3%, P = 0.09) or neurological (n = 63, 2.1% versus 1.8%, P = 0.6) terminal clinical events. Excess mortality from boluses occurred in all subgroups of children. Contrary to expectation, cardiovascular collapse rather than fluid overload appeared to contribute most to excess deaths with rapid fluid resuscitation. These results should prompt a re-evaluation of evidence on fluid resuscitation for shock and a re-appraisal of the rate, composition and volume of resuscitation fluids. ISRCTN69856593.

Mortality following blood culture in premature infants: increased with Gram-negative bacteremia and candidemia, but not Gram-positive bacteremia.

PubMed

Benjamin, Daniel K; DeLong, Elizabeth; Cotten, Charles M; Garges, Harmony P; Steinbach, William J; Clark, Reese H

2004-03-01

To describe survival following nosocomial bloodstream infections and quantify excess mortality associated with positive blood culture. Multicenter cohort study of premature infants. First blood culture was negative for 4648/5497 (78%) of the neonates--390/4648 (8%) died prior to discharge. Mortality prior to discharge was 19% in the 161 infants with Gram-negative rod (GNR) bacteremia, 8% in the 854 neonates with coagulase negative staphylococcus (CONS), 6% in the 169 infants infected with other Gram-positive bacteria (GP-o), and 26% in the 115 neonates with candidemia. The excess 7-day mortality was 0% for Gram-positive organisms and 83% for GNR bacteremia and candidemia. Using negative blood culture as referent, GNR [hazard ratio (HR)=2.61] and candidemia (HR=2.27) were associated with increased mortality; CONS (HR=1.08) and GP-o (HR=0.97) were not. Nosocomial GNR bacteremia and candidemia were associated with increased mortality but Gram-positive bacteremia was not.

Increased mortality associated with treated active tuberculosis in HIV-infected adults in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Kabali, Conrad; Mtei, Lillian; Brooks, Daniel R.; Waddell, Richard; Bakari, Muhammad; Matee, Mecky; Arbeit, Robert D.; Pallangyo, Kisali; von Reyn, C. Fordham; Horsburgh, C. Robert

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Active tuberculosis (TB) among HIV-infected patients, even when successfully treated, may be associated with excess mortality. We conducted a prospective cohort study nested in a randomized TB vaccine trial to compare mortality between HIV-infected patients diagnosed and treated for TB (TB, n=77) and HIV-infected patients within the same CD4 range, who were not diagnosed with or treated for active TB (non-TB, n=308) in the period 2001–2008. Only twenty four subjects (6%) were on antiretroviral therapy at the beginning of this study. After accounting for covariate effects including use of antiretroviral therapy, isoniazid preventive therapy, and receipt of vaccine, we found a four-fold increase in mortality in TB patients compared with non-TB patients (adjusted Hazard Ratio 4.61; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.63, 13.05). These findings suggest that treatment for TB alone is not sufficient to avert the excess mortality associated with HIV-related TB and that prevention of TB may provide a mortality benefit. PMID:23523641

French firefighter mortality: analysis over a 30-year period.

PubMed

Amadeo, Brice; Marchand, Jean-Luc; Moisan, Frédéric; Donnadieu, Stéphane; Gaëlle, Coureau; Simone, Mathoulin-Pélissier; Lembeye, Christian; Imbernon, Ellen; Brochard, Patrick

2015-04-01

To explore mortality of French professional male firefighters. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated for 10,829 professional male firefighters employed in 1979 and compared with the French male population between 1979-2008. Firefighters were identified from 89 French administrative departments (93% of population). One thousand six hundred forty two deaths were identified, representing significantly lower all-cause mortality than in the general population (SMR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.77-0.85). SMR increased with age and was not different from 1 for firefighters >70 years. No significant excess of mortality was observed for any specific cause, but a greater number of deaths than expected were found for various digestive neoplasms (rectum/anus, pancreas, buccal-pharynx, stomach, liver, and larynx). We observed lower all and leading-cause mortality likely due to the healthy worker effect in this cohort, with diseases of the respiratory system considerably lower (SMR = 0.57). Non-significant excesses for digestive neoplasms are notable, but should not be over-interpreted at this stage. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Survival of ovarian cancer patients in Denmark: excess mortality risk analysis of five-year relative survival in the period 1978-2002.

PubMed

Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Cortes, Rikke; Engholm, Gerda; Kjaer, Susanne Krüger

2008-01-01

To explore the variation in ovarian cancer survival in Denmark in the period 1978-2002 in relation to time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, period of diagnosis, stage and histology. Register-based cohort study. Denmark in the period 1978-2002. Using the nationwide Danish Cancer Registry, we included a total of 13,035 women diagnosed with invasive ovarian cancer in Denmark in the period 1978-2002. Excess mortality risk analyses of five-year relative survival of ovarian cancer patients diagnosed in the period 1978-2002 with follow-up through 2006 were made based on data from the NORDCAN database. Five-year relative survival, excess mortality rate (ER) and relative excess mortality risk (RER) after an ovarian cancer diagnosis. The relative survival of Danish ovarian cancer patients slightly increased in the period 1978-2002. The ERs were highest in the first year following diagnosis, in particular in the first three months, and among older patients, even for localized and regional tumors. The pattern remained the same when stratified by histological subgroup. Older age at diagnosis, earlier period of diagnosis, more advanced stage at diagnosis and being diagnosed with undifferentiated carcinoma predicted poorer survival among Danish ovarian cancer patients diagnosed in the period 1978-2002. The survival of Danish ovarian cancer patients has slightly increased from 1978 through 2002. Despite this, the mortality rate of ovarian cancer in Denmark is still higher than in the other Nordic countries. Explanations for these differences are still to be identified.

Mortality of older construction and craft workers employed at Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear sites.

PubMed

Dement, John M; Ringen, Knut; Welch, Laura S; Bingham, Eula; Quinn, Patricia

2009-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established medical screening programs at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, Oak Ridge Reservation, the Savannah River Site, and the Amchitka site starting in 1996. Workers participating in these programs have been followed to determine their vital status and mortality experience through December 31, 2004. A cohort of 8,976 former construction workers from Hanford, Savannah River, Oak Ridge, and Amchitka was followed using the National Death Index through December 31, 2004, to ascertain vital status and causes of death. Cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated based on US death rates. Six hundred and seventy-four deaths occurred in this cohort and overall mortality was slightly less than expected (SMR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.86-1.01), indicating a "healthy worker effect." However, significantly excess mortality was observed for all cancers (SMR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.13-1.45), lung cancer (SMR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.24-1.87), mesothelioma (SMR = 5.93, 95% CI = 2.56-11.68), and asbestosis (SMR = 33.89, 95% CI = 18.03-57.95). Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was in excess at Oak Ridge and multiple myeloma was in excess at Hanford. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was significantly elevated among workers at the Savannah River Site (SMR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.02-3.29). DOE construction workers at these four sites were found to have significantly excess risk for combined cancer sites included in the Department of Labor' Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program (EEOCIPA). Asbestos-related cancers were significantly elevated. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mortality among workers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

PubMed

Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve; Keil, Alexander; Wolf, Susanne

2013-07-01

Workers employed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) were potentially exposed to a range of chemical and physical hazards, many of which are poorly characterized. We compared the observed deaths among workers to expectations based upon US mortality rates. The cohort included 22,831 workers hired between January 1, 1943 and December 31, 1984. Vital status and cause of death information were ascertained through December 31, 2008. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed separately for males and females using US and Tennessee mortality rates; SMRs for men were tabulated separately for monthly-, weekly-, and hourly-paid workers. Hourly-paid males had more deaths due to cancer of the pleura (SMR = 12.09, 95% CI: 4.44, 26.32), cancer of the bladder (SMR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.71), and leukemia (SMR = 1.33, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.93) than expected based on US mortality rates. Female workers also had more deaths than expected from cancer of the bladder (SMR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.20, 3.69) and leukemia (SMR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.09, 2.36). The pleural cancer excess has only appeared since the 1980s, approximately 40 years after the start of operations. The bladder cancer excess was larger among workers who also had worked at other Oak Ridge nuclear weapons facilities, while the leukemia excess was among people who had not worked at other DOE facilities. Occupational hazards including asbestos and ionizing radiation may contribute to these excesses. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cancer and other mortality patterns among United States furniture workers.

PubMed Central

Miller, B A; Blair, A E; Raynor, H L; Stewart, P A; Zahm, S H; Fraumeni, J F

1989-01-01

Cause specific mortality was investigated among 36,622 members of a national furniture workers' union who were first employed in unionised shops between 1946 and 1962. Overall mortality for each race and sex group was less than expected when compared with United States death rates (white men SMR = 0.8, black men SMR = 0.7, white women SMR = 0.8, black women SMR = 0.5); however, raised risks were observed among white men employed in specific types of furniture industries and followed up for 20 or more years after first employment. Lymphatic and haematopoietic cancers were significantly raised (SMR = 1.8) among wood furniture workers followed up for at least 20 years due to excess deaths from leukaemia (SMR = 2.0) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (SMR = 2.0). Mortality from acute myeloid leukaemia was particularly high in this group (SMR = 4.7) based on six observed cases. Metal furniture workers followed up for at least 20 years experienced a significant excess of all cancers combined (SMR = 1.6), with non-significant increases in cancers of the lung, stomach, and colorectum. This group also had non-significant excesses of liver cirrhosis, arteriosclerotic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. Nasal cancer was not found to be significantly raised in this cohort, though the average follow up period may not have been sufficient to detect an excess risk for this uncommon tumour. PMID:2775670

Modeling the sssociation between 25[OH]D and all-cause mortality in a representative US population sample

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vitamin D has been identified as a potential key risk factor for several chronic diseases and mortality. The association between all-cause mortality and circulating levels of 25-ydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) has been described as non-monotonic with excess mortality at both low and high levels (1). Howev...

Alcohol Dependence, Mortality, and Chronic Health Conditions in a Rural Population in Korea

PubMed Central

Noh, Samuel; Shin, Jongho; Ahn, Joung-Sook; Kim, Tae-Hui

2008-01-01

To determine the effects of excessive drinking and alcohol dependency on mortality and chronic health problems in a rural community in South Korea, this study represents a nested case-control study. In 1998, we conducted the Alcohol Dependence Survey (ADS), a population survey of a village in Korea. To measure the effects of alcohol on chronic health conditions and mortality over time, in 2004, we identified 290 adults from the ADS sample (N=1,058) for follow-up. Of those selected, 145 were adults who had alcohol problems, either alcohol dependence as assessed in the ADS by the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (N=59), or excessive drinking without dependency (N=86). Further 145 nondrinkers were identified, matching those with alcohol problems in age and sex. We revisited the village in 2004 and completed personal interviews with them. In multivariate logistic regressions, the rates of mortality and morbidity of chronic health conditions were three times greater for alcohol dependents compared with the rate for nondrinkers. Importantly, however, excessive drinking without dependency was not associated with the rates of either mortality or morbidity. Future investigations would benefit by attending more specifically to measures for alcohol dependence as well as measures for alcohol consumption. PMID:18303191

Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

PubMed

Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Raso, José Miguel; Pérez-Zanón, Nuria

2015-04-01

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area. To achieve this purpose, we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels, in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes. The sequence length was determined by the short-term displacement between temperature and mortality. To detect this lag, we applied the cross-correlation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer. These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A 7-day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area. The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe, related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western Europe.

Cooking Coal Use and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study of Women in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Kim, Christopher; Seow, Wei Jie; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Bassig, Bryan A; Rothman, Nathaniel; Chen, Bingshu E; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Hosgood, H Dean; Ji, Bu-Tian; Hu, Wei; Wen, Cuiju; Chow, Wong-Ho; Cai, Qiuyin; Yang, Gong; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Lan, Qing

2016-09-01

Nearly 4.3 million deaths worldwide were attributable to exposure to household air pollution in 2012. However, household coal use remains widespread. We investigated the association of cooking coal and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort of primarily never-smoking women in Shanghai, China. A cohort of 74,941 women were followed from 1996 through 2009 with annual linkage to the Shanghai vital statistics database. Cause-specific mortality was identified through 2009. Use of household coal for cooking was assessed through a residential history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the risk of mortality associated with household coal use. In this cohort, 63% of the women ever used coal (n = 46,287). Compared with never coal use, ever use of coal was associated with mortality from all causes [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.21], cancer (HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.27), and ischemic heart disease (overall HR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.27; HR for myocardial infarction specifically = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.79). The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with increasing duration of coal use, compared with the risk in never users. The association between coal use and ischemic heart disease mortality diminished with increasing years since cessation of coal use. Evidence from this study suggests that past use of coal among women in Shanghai is associated with excess all-cause mortality, and from cardiovascular diseases in particular. The decreasing association with cardiovascular mortality as the time since last use of coal increased emphasizes the importance of reducing use of household coal where use is still widespread. Kim C, Seow WJ, Shu XO, Bassig BA, Rothman N, Chen BE, Xiang YB, Hosgood HD III, Ji BT, Hu W, Wen C, Chow WH, Cai Q, Yang G, Gao YT, Zheng W, Lan Q. 2016. Cooking coal use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort study of women in Shanghai, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1384-1389; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP236.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil; Leone, Michela; De Sario, Manuela; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Kan, Haidong; Yi, Seung-Muk; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Armstrong, Ben

2015-01-01

Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council. PMID:26003380

Unemployment and mortality among Finnish men, 1981-5.

PubMed Central

Martikainen, P T

1990-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To ascertain whether, after controlling for several relevant background variables simultaneously, unemployment is related to mortality and to assess whether this relation is causal or whether unhealthy people are more likely to become unemployed. DESIGN--Prospective study of mortality in Finland during 1981-5 based on 1980 census data on 30-54 year old wage earner men and with particular attention to unemployment in the year before the census. SETTING--Research project at the University of Helsinki. SUBJECTS--All wage earner men in Finland aged 30-54 at the 1980 census. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Causes of death during 1981-5 and duration of unemployment in the year before the census. Background variables controlled for were age, socioeconomic state, marital state, and health. The data were analysed by log linear regression models. RESULTS--During the study period 1981-5, which covered almost 2.7 million person years, there were 9810 deaths. After controlling for all background variables relative total mortality among unemployed versus employed men was 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.82 to 2.05). The excess mortality was highest in accidental and violent causes of death (relative mortality 2.51; 95% confidence interval 2.28 to 2.76). For circulatory diseases the relative death rate was 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.40 to 1.70), but among neoplasms only lung cancer was associated with excess mortality. Selection for unemployment based on age, socioeconomic state, and marital state was evident but no such selection was detected based on health. Effects of unemployment on mortality were more pronounced with increasing duration of unemployment. CONCLUSIONS--The relative excess mortality of unemployed men in Finland cannot fully be explained by demographic, social, and health variables preceding unemployment. Unemployment therefore seems to have an independent causal effect on male mortality. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms between unemployment and mortality. PMID:2282395

Urinary Iodine Concentrations and Mortality Among U.S. Adults.

PubMed

Inoue, Kosuke; Leung, Angela M; Sugiyama, Takehiro; Tsujimoto, Tetsuro; Makita, Noriko; Nangaku, Masaomi; Ritz, Beate R

2018-06-08

Iodine deficiency has long been recognized as an important public health problem. Global approaches such as salt iodization that aim to overcome iodine deficiency have been successful. Meanwhile, they have led to excessive iodine consumption in some populations, thereby increasing the risks of iodine-induced thyroid dysfunction, as well as the comorbidities and mortality associated with hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. We aimed to elucidate whether iodine intake is associated with mortality among U.S. adults. This is an observational study to estimate mortality risks according to urinary iodine concentrations (UIC) utilizing a nationally representative sample of 12,264 adults ages 20 to 80 years enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Crude and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to investigate the association between UIC (<50, 50-99, 100-299, 300-399, and >400 μg/L) and mortalities (all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer). In sensitivity analyses, we adjusted for total sodium intake and fat/calorie ratio in addition to other potential confounders. We also conducted stratum-specific analyses to estimate the effects of UIC on mortality according to age, sex, race/ethnicity, and eGFR category. Over a median follow-up of 19.2 years, there were 3,159 deaths from all causes. Participants with excess iodine exposure (UIC >400 μg/L) were at higher risk for all-cause mortality compared to those with adequate iodine nutrition (HR, 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.37). We also found elevated HRs of cardiovascular and cancer mortality, but the 95% CI of our effect estimates included the null value for both outcomes. Low UIC was not associated with increased mortality. Restricted cubic spline models showed similar results for all outcomes. The results did not change substantially after adjusting for total sodium intake and fat/calorie ratio. None of the potential interactions were statistically significant on a multiplicative scale. Higher all-cause mortality among those with excess iodine intake, compared with individuals with adequate iodine intake, highlights the importance of monitoring population iodine status. Further studies with longitudinal measures of iodine status are needed to validate our results and assess the potential risks excess iodine intake may have on long-term health outcomes.

Malaria's indirect contribution to all-cause mortality in the Andaman Islands during the colonial era.

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis; Hay, Simon I; Bradley, David J

2008-09-01

Malaria has a substantial secondary effect on other causes of mortality. From the 19th century, malaria epidemics in the Andaman Islands' penal colony were initiated by the brackish swamp-breeding malaria vector Anopheles sundaicus and fuelled by the importation of new prisoners. Malaria was a major determinant of the highly variable all-cause mortality rate (correlation coefficient r(2)=0.60, n=68, p<0.0001) from 1872 to 1939. Directly attributed malaria mortality based on post-mortem examinations rarely exceeded one-fifth of total mortality. Infectious diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, dysentery, and diarrhoea, which combined with malaria made up the majority of all-cause mortality, were positively correlated with malaria incidence over several decades. Deaths secondary to malaria (indirect malaria mortality) were at least as great as mortality directly attributed to malaria infections.

Declining mortality from smoking in the United States.

PubMed

Rodu, Brad; Cole, Philip

2007-07-01

The proportion of Americans who smoke cigarettes has declined 50% since 1965. The effect on mortality of this considerable reduction has received little attention and is described in this study. U.S. national data were used to enumerate current, former, and never-smokers aged 35 years or older in 1987 and 2002. Mortality rate ratios were used to estimate smoking-attributable deaths among these groups, and corresponding age-adjusted smoking-attributable mortality rates (SAMRs) were calculated. There were 402,000 deaths attributable to smoking in 1987 and 322,000 in 2002. The SAMR for men aged 35 years or more was 556 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 1987, accounting for 24% of all male deaths. By 2002 the SAMR declined 41% to 329 and accounted for only 17% of deaths. The SAMR for women in 1987 was 175, accounting for 12% of deaths. By 2002 the SAMR among women had declined 30% to 122, representing 9% of deaths. The U.S. mortality rate attributable to smoking declined about 35% between 1987 and 2002. The impact of smoking on American society will diminish even further in the foreseeable future as smoking prevalence continues its decline among men and women.

Sources of heterogeneity in studies of the BMI-mortality association.

PubMed

Peter, Raphael Simon; Nagel, Gabriele

2017-06-01

To date, the amount of heterogeneity among studies of the body mass index-mortality association attributable to differences in the age distribution and length of follow-up has not been quantified. Therefore, we wanted to quantify the amount of heterogeneity attributable to age and follow-up in results of studies on the body mass index-mortality relation. We used optima of the body mass index mortality association reported for 30 populations and performed meta-regression to estimate the amount of heterogeneity attributable to sex, ethnicity, mean age at baseline, percentage smokers, and length of follow-up. Ethnicity as single factor accounted for 36% (95% CI, 11-56%) of heterogeneity. Mean age and length of follow-up had an interactive effect and together accounted for 56% (95% CI, 24-74%) of the remaining heterogeneity. Sex did not significantly contribute to the heterogeneity, after controlling for ethnicity, age, and length of follow-up. A considerable amount of heterogeneity in studies of the body mass index-mortality association is attributable to ethnicity, age, and length of follow-up. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortality burden of ambient fine particulate air pollution in six Chinese cities: Results from the Pearl River Delta study.

PubMed

Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Guo, Lingchuan; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Tao, Jun; Xian, Hong; Syberg, Kevin M; Qian, Zhengmin Min; Ma, Wenjun

2016-11-01

Epidemiological studies have reported significant association between ambient fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5 ) and mortality, however, few studies have investigated the relationship of mortality with PM 2.5 and associated mortality burden in China, especially in a multicity setting. We investigated the PM 2.5 -mortality association in six cities of the Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2015. We used generalized additive Poisson models incorporating penalized smoothing splines to control for temporal trend, temperature, and relative humidity. We applied meta-analyses using random-effects models to pool the effect estimates in the six cities. We also examined these associations in stratified analyses by sex, age group, education level and location of death. We further estimated the mortality burden (attributable fraction and attributable mortality) due to ambient PM 2.5 exposures. During the study period, a total of 316,305 deaths were recorded in the study area. The analysis revealed a significant association between PM 2.5 and mortality. Specifically, a 10μg/m 3 increase in 4-day averaged (lag 03 ) PM 2.5 concentration corresponded to a 1.76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47%, 2.06%) increase in total mortality, 2.19% (95% CI: 1.80%, 2.59%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 1.68% (95% CI: 1.00%, 2.37%) in respiratory mortality. The results were generally robust to model specifications and adjustment of gaseous air pollutants. We estimated that 0.56% (95% CI: 0.47%, 0.66%) and 3.79% (95% CI: 3.14%, 4.45%) of all-cause mortalities were attributable to PM 2.5 using China's and WHO's air quality standards as the reference, corresponding to 1661 (95% CI: 1379, 1946) and 11,176 (95% CI: 9261, 13,120) attributable premature mortalities, respectively. This analysis adds to the growing body of evidence linking PM 2.5 with daily mortality, and mortality burdens, particularly in one Chinese region with high levels of air pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation of bias in a study of nuclear shipyard workers.

PubMed

Greenberg, E R; Rosner, B; Hennekens, C; Rinsky, R; Colton, T

1985-02-01

The authors examined discrepant findings between a 1978 proportional mortality study and a 1981 cohort study of workers at the Portsmouth, New Hampshire, Naval Shipyard to determine whether the healthy worker effect, selection bias, or measurement bias could explain why only the proportional mortality study found excess cancer deaths among nuclear workers. Lower mortality from noncancer causes in nuclear workers (the healthy worker effect) partly accounted for the observed elevated cancer proportional mortality. More important, however, was measurement bias which occurred in the proportional mortality study when nuclear workers who had not died of cancer were misclassified as not being nuclear workers based on information from their next of kin, thereby creating a spurious association. Although the proportional mortality study was based on a small sample of all deaths occurring in the cohort, selection bias did not contribute materially to the discrepant results for total cancer deaths. With regard to leukemia, misclassification of occupation in the proportional mortality study and disagreement about cause of death accounted for some of the reported excess deaths.

Current and Projected Burden of Disease From High Ambient Temperature in Korea.

PubMed

Chung, Soo Eun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Park, Jae-Hyun; Kim, Jong-Hun; Han, Hyunjin

2017-10-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate the current and projected burden of disease from high ambient temperature using population-based data sources of nationwide mortality and morbidity in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were estimated using noninjury-related deaths, and cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases from recently released nationwide health and mortality databases. Years of life lost and years lost due to disability were measured based on the point prevalence and number of deaths during the study period. Future DALY attributable to heat waves were estimated from projected populations, and temperature predictions for the years 2030 and 2050 were under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 with summertime temperatures above threshold. Relative risks (RR) of total mortality and of cardiovascular disease were 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01, 1.02) and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06, 1.09) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold, respectively. The morbidity of heat-related disease was RR 1.67 (95% CI, 1.64, 1.68) for each 1°C increase in temperature above threshold. DALY for all-cause death were 0.49 DALY/1000 in 2011, 0.71 (0.71) DALY/1000 in 2030 and 0.77 (1.72) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). DALY for cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases were 1.24 DALY/1000 in 2011, 1.63 (1.82) DALY/1000 in 2030, and 1.76 (3.66) DALY/1000 in 2050 based on RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). Future excess mortality due to high ambient temperature is expected to be profound in Korea. Efforts to mitigate climate change can provide substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

Providing Context for Ambient Particulate Matter and Estimates of Attributable Mortality.

PubMed

McClellan, Roger O

2016-09-01

Four papers on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) by Anenberg et al., Fann et al., Shin et al., and Smith contribute to a growing body of literature on estimated epidemiological associations between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and increases in health responses relative to baseline notes. This article provides context for the four articles, including a historical review of provisions of the U.S. Clean Air Act as amended in 1970, requiring the setting of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for criteria pollutants such as particulate matter (PM). The substantial improvements in both air quality for PM and population health as measured by decreased mortality rates are illustrated. The most recent revision of the NAAQS for PM2.5 in 2013 by the Environmental Protection Agency distinguished between (1) uncertainties in characterizing PM2.5 as having a causal association with various health endpoints, and as all-cause mortality, and (2) uncertainties in concentration--excess health response relationships at low ambient PM2.5 concentrations below the majority of annual concentrations studied in the United States in the past. In future reviews, and potential revisions, of the NAAQS for PM2.5 , it will be even more important to distinguish between uncertainties in (1) characterizing the causal associations between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and specific health outcomes, such as all-source mortality, irrespective of the concentrations, (2) characterizing the potency of major constituents of PM2.5 , and (3) uncertainties in the association between ambient PM2.5 concentrations and specific health outcomes at various ambient PM2.5 concentrations. The latter uncertainties are of special concern as ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health morbidity and mortality rates approach background or baseline rates. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Changing ethnic disparity in ischemic stroke mortality in US children after the STOP trial.

PubMed

Lehman, Laura L; Fullerton, Heather J

2013-08-01

A prior report showed higher stroke mortality in US black children compared with white children (1979-1998), a disparity likely due in part to sickle cell disease, which leads to a high risk of childhood ischemic stroke. We hypothesized that this disparity has diminished since the publication of the Stroke Prevention Trial in Sickle Cell Anemia (STOP trial) in 1998 demonstrating the efficacy of long-term blood transfusions for primary stroke prevention. To evaluate the demographics and secular trends in mortality from ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (as a primary cause of death) in US children (<20 years) and determine if there has been a decrease in the disparity between white and black children since the publication of the STOP trial in 1998. We used death certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics, 1988 through 2007. United States. Children who died in 1988 through 2007 in the United States. Publication of the STOP trial. Incidence rate ratios were calculated as the measure of relative risk. Among 1.6 billion person-years of US children (1988-2007), there were 4425 deaths attributed to stroke, yielding an average of 221 deaths per year; 20% were ischemic; 67%, hemorrhagic; and 12%, unspecified. The relative risk of ischemic stroke mortality for black vs white children dropped from 1.74 from 1988 through 1997 to 1.27 from 1998 through 2007. The ethnic disparity in hemorrhagic stroke mortality, however, remained relatively stable between these 2 periods: black vs white relative risk, 1.90 (1988-1997) and 1.97 (1998-2007). The excess risk of death from ischemic, but not hemorrhagic, stroke in US black children has decreased over the past decade. This may be related to the implementation of an effective ischemic stroke prevention strategy for children with sickle cell disease.

Air pollution and associated human mortality: The role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases during the industrial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Y.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2012-12-01

Increases in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5μm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. Here we estimate changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 since preindustrial (1860) times and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We go beyond previous work to analyze and differentiate the contribution of three factors: changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH4) concentrations, to air pollution levels and the associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM2.5 and health-relevant O3 (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-hour daily maximum O3 in a year) have increased by 8±0.16 μg/m3 and 30±0.16 ppbv, respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH4 concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global average PM2.5 (O3) to change by +7.5±0.19 μg/m3 (+25±0.30 ppbv), +0.4±0.17 μg/m3 (+0.5±0.28 ppbv), and -0.02±0.01 μg/m3 (+4.3±0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total changes in PM2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.0-2.5) million all-cause mortalities annually and in O3 are associated with 375 (95% CI, 129-592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95% and 85% of mortalities from PM2.5 and O3 respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH4 concentrations also increased premature mortality associated with air pollution globally up to 5% and 15%, respectively. In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH4 together are responsible for more than 20% of the respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. In addition to driving 13% of the total historical changes in surface O3 and 15% of the associated mortalities, CH4 is the dominant factor driving changes in atmospheric OH and H2O2 since preindustrial time. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH4 mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.

Attributable risk and potential impact of interventions to reduce household air pollution associated with under-five mortality in South Asia.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2018-01-01

Solid fuel use is the major source of household air pollution (HAP) and accounts for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality in low and middle income countries. To evaluate and compare childhood mortality attributable to HAP in four South Asian countries. A series of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan were used for analysis. Estimates of relative risk and exposure prevalence relating to use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each country. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were also calculated assessing theoretical scenarios based on published interventions aiming to reduce exposure prevalence. There are an increased risk of under-five mortality in those exposed to cooking fuel compared to those not exposed in the four South Asian countries (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07-1.57, P  = 0.007). Combined PAF estimates for South Asia found that 66% (95% CI: 43.1-81.5%) of the 13,290 estimated cases of under-five mortality was attributable to HAP. Joint PIF estimates (assuming achievable reductions in HAP reported in intervention studies conducted in South Asia) indicates 47% of neonatal and 43% of under-five mortality cases associated with HAP could be avoidable in the four South Asian countries studied. Elimination of exposure to use of cooking fuel in the household targeting valuable intervention strategies (such as cooking in separate kitchen, improved cook stoves) could reduce substantially under-five mortality in South Asian countries.

Workplace risk factors for cancer in the German rubber industry: Part 1. Mortality from respiratory cancers

PubMed Central

Weiland, S. K.; Straif, K.; Chambless, L.; Werner, B.; Mundt, K. A.; Bucher, A.; Birk, T.; Keil, U.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cancer specific mortality by work area among active and retired male workers in the German rubber industry. METHODS: A cohort of 11,663 male German workers was followed up for mortality from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 1991. Cohort members were classified as active (n = 7536) or retired (n = 4127) as of 1 January 1981 and had been employed for at least one year in one of five study plants producing tyres or technical rubber goods. Work histories were reconstructed with routinely documented "cost centre codes" which were classified into six categories: I preparation of materials; II production of technical rubber goods; III production of tyres; IV storage and dispatch; V maintenance; and VI others. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for age and calendar year and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), stratified by work area (employment in respective work area for at least one year) and time related variables (year of hire, lagged years of employment in work area), were calculated from national reference rates. RESULTS: SMRs for laryngeal cancer were highest in work area I (SMR 253; 95% CI 93 to 551) and were significant among workers who were employed for > 10 years in this work area (SMR 330; 95% CI 107 to 779). Increased mortality rates from lung cancer were identified in work areas I (SMR 162; 95% CI 129 to 202), II (SMR 134; 95% CI 109 to 163), and V (SMR 131; 95% CI 102 to 167). Mortality from pleural cancer was increased in all six work areas, and significant excesses were found in work areas I (SMR 448; 95% CI 122 to 1146), II (SMR 505; 95% CI 202 to 1040), and V (SMR 554; 95% CI 179 to 1290). CONCLUSION: A causal relation between the excess of pleural cancer and exposure to asbestos among rubber workers is plausible and likely. In this study, the pattern of excess of lung cancer parallels the pattern of excess of pleural cancer. This points to asbestos as one risk factor for the excess deaths from lung cancer among rubber workers. The study provides further evidence for an increased mortality from laryngeal cancer among workers in the rubber industry, particularly in work area I.   PMID:9764109

The public health relevance of air pollution abatement.

PubMed

Künzli, N

2002-07-01

Assuming a causal relationship between current levels of air pollution and morbidity/mortality, it is crucial to estimate the public health relevance of the problem. The derivation of air pollution attributable cases faces inherent uncertainties and requires influential assumptions. Based on the results of the trinational impact assessment study of Austria, France, and Switzerland, where prudent estimates of the air pollution attributable cases (mortality, chronic bronchitis incidence, hospital admissions, acute bronchitis among children, restricted activity days, asthma attacks) have been made, influential uncertainties are quantified in this review. The public health impact of smoking, environmental tobacco smoke, and air pollution on the prevalence of chronic cough/phlegm are outlined. Despite all methodological caveats, impact assessment studies clearly suggest that public health largely benefits from better air quality. The studies are selective underestimates as they are strongly driven by mortality, but do not include full quantification of the impact on morbidity and their consequences on quality of life among the diseased and the caregivers. Air pollution abatement strategies are usually political in nature, targeting at polities, regulation and technology in mobile or stationary sources rather than at individuals. It is of note that key clean air strategies converge into abatement of climate change. In general, energy consumption is very closely related to both air pollution and greenhouse gases. The dominant causes of both problems are the excessive and inefficient combustion of fossil fuel. Thus, for many policy options, the benefit of air pollution abatement will go far beyond what prudent health-impact assessments may derive. From a climate change and air pollution perspective, improved energy efficiency and a strong and decisive departure from the "fossil fuel" combustion society is a science-based must. Health professionals must raise their voices in the political decision process to give strong support for clean air policies, both on a national and international level.

[Mortality and life expectancy that attributable to high blood pressure in Chinese people in 2013].

PubMed

Zeng, X Y; Liu, S W; Wang, L J; Zhang, M; Yin, P; Liu, Y N; Zhao, Z P; Wang, L M

2017-08-10

Objective: To estimate the deaths (mortality) and life expectancy that attributable to high blood pressure in people from different regions and gender, in China in 2013. Methods: Data was from the 'China Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance 2013' and the 'China National Mortality Surveillance 2013'. According to the comparative risk assessment theory, population attributable fraction ( PAF ) of high blood pressure by gender, urban-rural, east-central-west regions was calculated before the estimations on deaths (mortality) and life expectancy attributable to high blood pressure was made. Results: In 2013, among the Chinese people aged 25 years old and above, the mean SBP was (129.48±20.27) mmHg. High blood pressure[SBP>(115±6) mmHg]caused 20.879 million deaths and accounted for 22.78% of the total deaths. SBP, deaths, mortality rate and standardized mortality rate that attributable to high blood pressure all appeared higher in men [(131.15±18.73) mmHg, 11.517 million, 165.56/100 000 and 106.97/100 000, respectively]than in women[(127.79±21.60) mmHg, 9.362 million, 141.99/100 000 and 68.93/100 000, respectively]. SBP, deaths, mortality rate and PAF were all seen higher in rural[(130.25±20.66) mmHg, 11.234 million, 178.58/100 000 and 23.59%, respectively]than in urban[(128.58±19.77) mmHg, 9.645 million, 132.87/100 000 and 21.54%, respectively]areas. However, levels of SBP were similar in the east, central or west regions, with attributable deaths, attributable mortality rate and PAF the highest as 7.658 million 179.93/100 000, and 26.72% respectively. In 2013, among the Chinese people aged 25 years old and above, deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease attributable to high blood pressure were 19.912 million and 0.966 million, accounting for 52.31% of the total deaths due to cardiovascular diseases and 62.11% to the total chronic kidney diseases. The top three deaths attributable to high blood pressure were ischemic heart disease (6.656 million), hemorrhagic stroke (5.331 million) and ischemic stroke (3.593 million). When the effect of high blood pressure had been eliminated, the life expectancy per capita would have increased by 2.86 years old, with higher in women than in men (3.07 and 2.64 years old, respectively), higher in central than in east and west (3.48, 2.56 and 2.58 years, respectively) areas, in rural than in urban (2.97 and 2.59 years, respectively) areas. Conclusions: In 2013, the number of deaths attributable to high blood pressure was around 20.9 million, accounting for 22.78% of the total deaths, and appeared higher in men than in women, in rural than in urban, in central than in east and west areas. The mortality burden induced by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke was most serious since the high blood pressure brought about 2.86 years of lost in life expectancy.

Costs resulting from premature mortality due to cardiovascular causes: A 20-year follow-up of the DRECE study.

PubMed

Gómez-de la Cámara, A; Pinilla-Domínguez, P; Vázquez-Fernández Del Pozo, S; García-Pérez, L; Rubio-Herrera, M A; Gómez-Gerique, J A; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, J A; Rivero-Cuadrado, A; Serrano-Aguilar, P

2014-10-01

Cardiovascular diseases are still the leading cause of death in Spain. The DRECE study (Diet and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Spain), based on a representative cohort of the Spanish general population, analyzed nutritional habits and lifestyle and their association with morbidity and mortality patterns. We estimated the impact, in terms of loss of productivity, of premature mortality attributed to cardiovascular diseases. The loss of productivity attributed to premature mortality was calculated from 1991, based on the potential years of life lost and the potential years of working life lost. During the 20-year follow-up of a cohort of 4779 patients, 225 of these patients died (men, 152). Sixteen percent of the deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease. The costs due to lost productivity by premature mortality exceeded 29 million euros. Of these, 4 million euros (14% of the total cost) were due to cardiovascular causes. Premature cardiovascular mortality in the DRECE cohort represented a significant social cost due to lost productivity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Mortality Attributable to Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Spain (2011).

PubMed

López, Maria J; Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Schiaffino, Anna; Fernández, Esteve

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to assess the mortality attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among never-smokers in Spain in 2011, after the implementation of the Spanish smoking law. Data on SHS exposure were obtained from a computer-assisted telephone survey carried out in a representative sample of the adult Spanish population. We included the two main diseases widely associated with SHS exposure: lung cancer and ischaemic heart disease. The relative risks for these diseases were selected from previously published meta-analyses. The number of deaths attributable to SHS was calculated by applying the population attributable fraction to mortality not attributable to active smoking in 2011. The analyses were stratified by sex, age and setting of exposure (home, workplace, and both combined). In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed for distinct scenarios. In 2011, a total of 586 deaths in men and 442 deaths in women would be attributable to SHS exposure. The total number of deaths from lung cancer attributable to SHS exposure would be 124, while the total number of deaths from ischaemic heart disease would be 904. The inclusion of ex-smokers or SHS exposure in leisure time in the study would considerably increase the total number of attributable deaths (by 20% and 130%, respectively). The total number of deaths attributable to SHS exposure at home and at work in Spain would be 1028 in 2011. Efforts are still needed to reduce the current prevalence of exposure-mainly due to exposure in nonregulated settings such as homes or cars and some outdoor spaces-and the associated morbidity and mortality. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Visualising and quantifying 'excess deaths' in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe.

PubMed

Minton, Jon; Shaw, Richard; Green, Mark A; Vanderbloemen, Laura; Popham, Frank; McCartney, Gerry

2017-05-01

Scotland has higher mortality rates than the rest of Western Europe (rWE), with more cardiovascular disease and cancer among older adults; and alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and violence among younger adults. We obtained sex, age-specific and year-specific all-cause mortality rates for Scotland and other populations, and explored differences in mortality both visually and numerically. Scotland's age-specific mortality was higher than the rest of the UK (rUK) since 1950, and has increased. Between the 1950s and 2000s, 'excess deaths' by age 80 per 100 000 population associated with living in Scotland grew from 4341 to 7203 compared with rUK, and from 4132 to 8828 compared with rWE. UK-wide mortality risk compared with rWE also increased, from 240 'excess deaths' in the 1950s to 2320 in the 2000s. Cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s throughout the UK including Scotland had lower mortality risk than comparable rWE populations, especially for males. Mortality rates were higher in Scotland than rUK and rWE among younger adults from the 1990s onwards suggesting an age-period interaction. Worsening mortality among young adults in the past 30 years reversed a relative advantage evident for those born between 1950 and 1960. Compared with rWE, Scotland and rUK have followed similar trends but Scotland has started from a worse position and had worse working age-period effects in the 1990s and 2000s. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Epidemic of tuberculosis in Meiji and Taisho eras in Japan and excess deaths from tuberculosis in females].

PubMed

Aoki, K

1995-08-01

Acute increase in tuberculosis mortality between 1885 and 1910 could be explained by rapidly increased birth rate, consequently large expansion of noninfected population, and gradual increase in opportunity of contact with infectious patients by changing working environments and living conditions. Prevalence of tuberculosis patients was not so few in the beginning of Meiji era. Vicious spiral of increased young susceptibles, many infectious sources and increased opportunity of infection had been continued for long. Lower nutrition from infant to adult, hard work and poor living conditions had worsen prognosis of the patients. Nation-wide tuberculosis control campaign, mainly avoiding contact with patients and contaminated materials had started around 1910 and then issued Factory act which had been improved working conditions in the factories, although the speed was very slow. Tuberculosis mortality began to decrease in 1910s, but sharp temporary rise of tuberculosis mortality was marked in 1918-19 by epidemic of influenza, then the mortality had been declined again. Excess mortality by influenza caused temporary reduction of infectious sources, which had affected mortality rate of tuberculosis in the younger ages after 1920. Large raise-up of wages for factory workers around 1920 and increase trend in income for other workers by economic growth since 1900 had been improved not only working and living conditions, but also dietary life with increased higher intake of animal foods. Female excess deaths from tuberculosis comparing those of males had continued until 1930, then male mortality exceeded females. Mobilization of young women to spinning and textile industries in Meiji and Taisho eras forced to increase in tuberculosis mortality among them.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone.

PubMed

Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

2016-03-09

Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07-1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35-44 years than ≥ 65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10-1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02-1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01-2.48) and the southernmost zone of California's Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21-1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions.

Valuing mortality impacts of smoke exposure from major southern California wildfires

Treesearch

Ikuho Kochi; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Geoffrey H. Donovan

2012-01-01

While the mortality impacts of urban air pollution have been well addressed in the literature, very little is known about the mortality impacts and associated social cost from wildfire-smoke exposure (Kochi et al., 2010; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004). In an attempt to address this knowledge gap, we estimate the social cost associated with excess mortality...

Co-morbidities associated with influenza-attributed mortality, 1994-2000, Canada.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Langley, Joanne M; Tam, Theresa W S

2008-08-26

The elderly and persons with specific chronic conditions are known to face elevated morbidity and mortality risks resulting from an influenza infection, and hence are routinely recommended for annual influenza vaccination. However, risk-specific mortality rates have not been established. We estimated age-specific influenza-attributable mortality rates stratified by the presence of chronic conditions and type of residence based on deaths of persons who were admitted to hospital with a respiratory complication captured in our national database. The majority of patients had chronic heart or respiratory conditions (80%) and were admitted from the community (80%). Influenza-attributable mortality rates clearly increase with age for all risk groups. Our influenza-specific estimates identified higher risk ratios for chronic lung or heart disease than have been suggested by other methods. These estimates identify groups most in need of improved vaccines and for whom the use of additional strategies, such as immunization of household contacts or caregivers should be considered.

Estimated Deaths Attributable to Social Factors in the United States

PubMed Central

Tracy, Melissa; Hoggatt, Katherine J.; DiMaggio, Charles; Karpati, Adam

2011-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the number of deaths attributable to social factors in the United States. Methods. We conducted a MEDLINE search for all English-language articles published between 1980 and 2007 with estimates of the relation between social factors and adult all-cause mortality. We calculated summary relative risk estimates of mortality, and we obtained and used prevalence estimates for each social factor to calculate the population-attributable fraction for each factor. We then calculated the number of deaths attributable to each social factor in the United States in 2000. Results. Approximately 245 000 deaths in the United States in 2000 were attributable to low education, 176 000 to racial segregation, 162 000 to low social support, 133 000 to individual-level poverty, 119 000 to income inequality, and 39 000 to area-level poverty. Conclusions. The estimated number of deaths attributable to social factors in the United States is comparable to the number attributed to pathophysiological and behavioral causes. These findings argue for a broader public health conceptualization of the causes of mortality and an expansive policy approach that considers how social factors can be addressed to improve the health of populations. PMID:21680937

Race versus place of service in mortality among medicare beneficiaries with cancer.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Duell, Eric J; Shi, Xun; Demidenko, Eugene; Goodman, David C

2010-06-01

Evidence suggests that excess mortality among African-American cancer patients is explained in part by the healthcare setting. The objective of this study was to compare mortality among African-American and Caucasian cancer patients and to evaluate the influence of attendance at a National Cancer Institute (NCI)-designated comprehensive or clinical cancer center. The authors conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare beneficiaries with an incident diagnosis of lung, breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer between 1998 and 2002 who were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the impact of NCI cancer center attendance and race on all-cause and cancer-specific mortality at 1 year and 3 years after diagnosis. The likelihood of 1-year and 3-year all-cause and cancer-specific mortality was higher for African Americans than for Caucasians in crude and adjusted models (cancer-specific adjusted: Caucasian referent, 1-year odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.19; 3-year OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.17-1.30). By cancer site, cancer-specific mortality was higher among African Americans at 1 year for breast and colorectal cancers and for all cancers at 3 years. NCI cancer center attendance was associated with significantly lower odds of mortality for African Americans (1-year OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.56-0.76; 3-year OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.62-0.81). With Caucasians as the referent group, the excess mortality risk among African Americans no longer was observed for all-cause or cancer-specific mortality risk among patients who attended NCI cancer centers (cancer-specific mortality:1-year OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.76-1.19; 3-year OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.82-1.21). African-American Medicare beneficiaries with lung, breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers had higher mortality compared with their Caucasian counterparts; however, there were no significant differences in mortality by race among those who attended NCI cancer centers. The results of this study suggested that place of service may explain some of the cancer mortality excess observed in African Americans. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

Gender bias in under-five mortality in low/middle-income countries.

PubMed

Costa, Janaína Calu; da Silva, Inacio Crochemore Mohnsam; Victora, Cesar Gomes

2017-01-01

Due to biological reasons, boys are more likely to die than girls. The detection of gender bias requires knowing the expected relation between male and female mortality rates at different levels of overall mortality, in the absence of discrimination. Our objective was to compare two approaches aimed at assessing excess female under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in low/middle-income countries. We compared the two approaches using data from 60 Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2014). The prescriptive approach compares observed mortality rates with historical patterns in Western societies where gender discrimination was assumed to be low or absent. The descriptive approach is derived from global estimates of all countries with available data, including those affected by gender bias. The prescriptive approach showed significant excess female U5MR in 20 countries, compared with only one country according to the descriptive approach. Nevertheless, both models showed similar country rankings. The 13 countries with the highest and the 10 countries with the lowest rankings were the same according to both approaches. Differences in excess female mortality among world regions were significant, but not among country income groups. Both methods are useful for monitoring time trends, detecting gender-based inequalities and identifying and addressing its causes. The prescriptive approach seems to be more sensitive in the identification of gender bias, but needs to be updated using data from populations with current-day structures of causes of death.

ACE genotype, phenotype and all-cause mortality in different cohorts of patients with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Færch, Louise H; Sejling, Anne-Sophie; Lajer, Maria; Tarnow, Lise; Thorsteinsson, Birger; Pedersen-Bjergaard, Ulrik

2015-06-01

Carrying the D-allele of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) I/D polymorphism and high ACE activity are prognostic factors in diabetic nephropathy, which predicts mortality in type 1 diabetes. We studied the association between the ACE D-allele and ACE phenotype and long-term all-cause mortality in three single-institution outpatient cohorts. Genotype-based analyses were performed in 269 patients from Hillerød Hospital (HIH) (follow-up: 12 years) and in 439 patients with diabetic nephropathy and 437 patients with persistent normoalbuminuria from the Steno Diabetes Center (SDC) (follow-up: 9.5 years). Patients not on renin-angiotensin system (RAS)-blocking treatment were included in analyses of serum ACE activity (HIH: n = 208) and plasma ACE concentration (SDC: n=269). In the HIH cohort, carrying a D-allele was associated with excess mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-16)), but not in the SDC cohorts. At HIH, serum ACE activity was associated with excess mortality (HR=1.04 (95% CI 1.0-1.1 per unit increase)), but in the SDC cohort plasma ACE concentration was not. In unselected patients with type 1 diabetes, carrying the ACE D-allele and high spontaneous serum ACE activity were associated with 12-year excess mortality. These findings could not be reproduced in two other cohorts with persistent normoalbuminuria or diabetic nephropathy. © The Author(s) 2013.

Causes of death in people with liver cirrhosis in England compared with the general population: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ratib, Sonia; Fleming, Kate M; Crooks, Colin J; Walker, Alex J; West, Joe

2015-08-01

There is a need for unbiased estimates of cause-specific mortality by etiology in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study is to use nationwide linked electronic routine healthcare data from primary and secondary care alongside the national death registry data to report such estimates. We identified from the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and English Hospital Episode Statistics adults with an incident diagnosis of liver cirrhosis linked to the Office for National Statistics between 1998 and 2009. Age-matched controls from the CPRD general population were selected. We calculated the cumulative incidence (adjusting for competing risks) and excess risk of death by 5 years from diagnosis for different causes of death, stratified by etiology and stage of disease. Five thousand one hundred and eighteen patients with cirrhosis were matched to 152,903 controls. Among compensated patients, the 5-year excess risk of liver-related death was higher than that of any other cause of death for all patients, except those of unspecified etiology. For example, those of alcohol etiology had 30.8% excess risk of liver-related death (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.9%, 33.1%) compared with 9.9% excess risk of non-liver-related death. However, patients of unspecified etiology had a higher excess risk of non-liver-related compared with liver-related death (10.7% vs. 6.7%). This was due to a high excess risk of non-liver neoplasm death (7.7%, 95% CI: 5.9%, 9.5%). All decompensated patients had a higher excess of liver-related mortality than any other cause. In order to reduce associated mortality among people with liver cirrhosis, patients' care pathways need to be tailored depending on the etiology and stage of the disease.

Family planning issues relating to maternal and infant mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Puffer, R R

1993-01-01

Both maternal and infant death rates in the United States are much higher than in many developed countries. The interrelationships between abortions and maternal and infant mortality have been analyzed on the basis of data from the 1970s and 1980s. The legalization of abortions in 1973 resulted in a marked increase in legal abortions and marked reductions in maternal and infant mortality over the course of the 1970s. However, a wide variation in abortion rates and in the number of abortion facilities indicates that such facilities were not readily available to all segments of the population in some areas. This probably accounts in part for higher maternal and infant death rates in such areas. Smoking, small weight gain, use of alcohol and drugs in pregnancy, and excessive maternal youth or age affected the outcome of pregnancy and contributed to high rates of infant death. Infant death rates were especially high among newborns of teenagers and young adult mothers; relatively high proportions of these newborns had low birthweights; a large share of the pregnancies involved were unintended; and slightly over half of the unintended pregnancies in teenagers and young women resulted in abortion. Comparisons with findings in Sweden reveal that the rates of unplanned pregnancy, abortion, and infant mortality were all much higher in the United States than in Sweden. The differences are attributed to better contraceptive services, which were made available free or very inexpensively in Sweden. Also, the frequency of low weight births was much lower in Sweden.

Malaria’s Indirect Contribution to All-Cause Mortality in the Andaman Islands during the Colonial Era

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. Dennis; Hay, Simon I.; Bradley, David J.

2009-01-01

Malaria appears to have a substantial secondary effect on other causes of mortality. From the 19th century, malaria epidemics in the Andaman Islands Penal Colony were initiated by the brackish swamp breeding malaria vector Anopheles sundaicus and fueled by the importation of new prisoners. Malaria was a major determinant of the highly variable all-cause mortality rate (correlation coefficient r2=0.60, n=68, p< 0.0001) from 1872 to 1939. Directly attributed malaria mortality based on postmortem examinations rarely exceeded one fifth of total mortality. Infectious diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis, dysentery and diarrhea, which combined with malaria made up a majority of all-cause mortality, were positively correlated to malaria incidence over several decades. Deaths secondary to malaria (indirect malaria mortality) were at least as great as mortality directly attributed to malaria infections. PMID:18599354

Long-term effects of wealth on mortality and self-rated health status.

PubMed

Hajat, Anjum; Kaufman, Jay S; Rose, Kathryn M; Siddiqi, Arjumand; Thomas, James C

2011-01-15

Epidemiologic studies seldom include wealth as a component of socioeconomic status. The authors investigated the associations between wealth and 2 broad outcome measures: mortality and self-rated general health status. Data from the longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics, collected in a US population between 1984 and 2005, were used to fit marginal structural models and to estimate relative and absolute measures of effect. Wealth was specified as a 6-category variable: those with ≤0 wealth and quintiles of positive wealth. There were a 16%-44% higher risk and 6-18 excess cases of poor/fair health (per 1,000 persons) among the less wealthy relative to the wealthiest quintile. Less wealthy men, women, and whites had higher risk of poor/fair health relative to their wealthy counterparts. The overall wealth-mortality association revealed a 62% increased risk and 4 excess deaths (per 1,000 persons) among the least wealthy. Less wealthy women had between a 24% and a 90% higher risk of death, and the least wealthy men had 6 excess deaths compared with the wealthiest quintile. Overall, there was a strong inverse association between wealth and poor health status and between wealth and mortality.

Cancer incidence and mortality among Swedish leather tanners.

PubMed Central

Mikoczy, Z; Schütz, A; Hagmar, L

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVES--The aim was to study the incidence of cancer among Swedish leather tanners. METHODS--A cohort of 2026 subjects who had been employed for at least one year between 1900 and 1989 in three Swedish leather tanneries, was established. The cancer incidence and mortality patterns were assessed for the periods 1958-89 and 1952-89 respectively, and cause-specific standardised incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs and SMRs) were calculated. RESULTS--A significantly increased incidence of soft tissue sarcomas (SIR 4.27, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.39-9.97) was found, based on five cases. Excesses, (not statistically significant) was also found for multiple myelomas (SIR 2.54, 95% CI 0.93-5.53), and sinonasal cancer (SIR 3.77, 95% CI 0.46-13.6). CONCLUSIONS--The increased incidence of soft tissue sarcomas adds support to previous findings of an excess mortality in this diagnosis among leather tanners. A plausible cause is exposure to chlorophenols, which had occurred in all three plants. The excess of multiple myelomas may also be associated with exposure to chlorophenol. The association between incidence of cancer and specific chemical exposure will be elucidated in a cohort-based case-referent study. PMID:7951777

Cancer mortality among coke oven workers.

PubMed Central

Redmond, C K

1983-01-01

The OSHA standard for coke oven emissions, which went into effect in January 1977, sets a permissible exposure limit to coke oven emissions of 150 micrograms/m3 benzene-soluble fraction of total particulate matter (BSFTPM). Review of the epidemiologic evidence for the standard indicates an excess relative risk for lung cancer as high as 16-fold in topside coke oven workers with 15 years of exposure or more. There is also evidence for a consistent dose-response relationship in lung cancer mortality when duration and location of employment at the coke ovens are considered. Dose-response models fitted to these same data indicate that, while excess risks may still occur under the OSHA standard, the predicted levels of increased relative risk would be about 30-50% if a linear dose-response model is assumed and 3-7% if a quadratic model is assumed. Lung cancer mortality data for other steelworkers suggest the predicted excess risk has probably been somewhat overestimated, but lack of information on important confounding factors limits further dose-response analysis. PMID:6653539

The differential associations of preexisting conditions with trauma-related outcomes in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Calvo, Richard Yee; Lindsay, Suzanne P; Edland, Steven D; Macera, Caroline A; Wingard, Deborah L; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Sise, Michael J

2016-03-01

Pre-existing chronic conditions (PECs) pose a unique problem for the care of aging trauma populations. However, the relationships between specific conditions and outcomes after injury are relatively unknown. Evaluation of trauma patients is further complicated by their discharge to care facilities, where mortality risk remains high. Traditional approaches for evaluating in-hospital mortality do not account for the discharge of at-risk patients, which constitutes a competing risk event to death. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between 40 PECs and two clinical outcomes in the context of competing risks among older trauma patients. This retrospective study evaluated blunt-injured patients aged 55 years and older admitted to a level I trauma centre in 2006-2012. Outcomes were hospital length of stay (HLOS) and in-hospital mortality. Survivors were classified as discharges home or discharges to care facilities. Competing risks regression was used to evaluate each PEC with in-hospital mortality, accounting for discharges to care facilities as competing events. Competing risk estimates were compared to Cox model estimates, for which all survivors to discharge were non-events. Analyses were stratified using injury-based mortality risk at a 50% cutpoint (high versus low). Among 4653 patients, 176 died in-hospital, 3059 were discharged home, and 1418 were discharged to a care facility. Most patients (98%) were classified with a low mortality risk. Only haemophilia and coagulopathy were consistently associated with longer HLOS. In the low-risk subgroup, in-hospital mortality was most strongly associated with liver diseases, haemophilia, and coagulopathy. In the high-risk group, Parkinson's disease, depression, and cancers showed the strongest associations. Accounting for the competing event altered estimates for 12 of 19 significant conditions. Excess mortality among patients expected to survive their injuries may be attributable to complications resulting from PECs. Discharges to care facilities constitute a bias in the evaluation of in-hospital mortality and should be considered for the accurate calculation of risk. In conjunction with injury measures, consideration of PECs provides physicians with a foundation to plan clinical decisions in older trauma patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does physical exercise reduce excessive daytime sleepiness by improving inflammatory profiles in obstructive sleep apnea patients?

PubMed

Alves, Eduardo da Silva; Ackel-D'Elia, Carolina; Luz, Gabriela Pontes; Cunha, Thays Crosara Abrahão; Carneiro, Gláucia; Tufik, Sergio; Bittencourt, Lia Rita Azeredo; de Mello, Marco Tulio

2013-05-01

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is associated with a variety of long-term consequences such as high rates of morbidity and mortality, due to excessive diurnal somnolence as well as cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Obesity, recurrent episodes of upper airway obstruction, progressive hypoxemia, and sleep fragmentation during sleep cause neural, cardiovascular, and metabolic changes. These changes include activation of peripheral sympathetic nervous system and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, insulin sensitivity, and inflammatory cytokines alterations, which predispose an individual to vascular damage. Previous studies proposed that OSAS modulated the expression and secretion of inflammatory cytokines from fat and other tissues. Independent of obesity, patients with OSAS exhibited elevated levels of C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor-α and interleukin-6, which are associated with sleepiness, fatigue, and the development of a variety of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. OSAS and obesity are strongly associated with each other and share many common pathways that induce chronic inflammation. Previous studies suggested that the protective effect of exercise may be partially attributed to the anti-inflammatory effect of regular exercise, and this effect was observed in obese patients. Although some studies assessed the effects of physical exercise on objective and subjective sleep parameters, the quality of life, and mood in patients with OSAS, no study has evaluated the effects of this treatment on inflammatory profiles. In this review, we cited some studies that directed our opinion to believe that since OSAS causes increased inflammation and has excessive daytime sleepiness as a symptom and being that physical exercise improves inflammatory profiles and possibly OSAS symptoms, it must be that physical exercise improves excessive daytime sleepiness due to its improvement in inflammatory profiles.

Cancer incidence due to excess body weight and leisure-time physical inactivity in Canada: implications for prevention.

PubMed

Brenner, Darren R

2014-09-01

This analysis aimed to estimate the number of incident cases of various cancers attributable to excess body weight (overweight, obesity) and leisure-time physical inactivity annually in Canada. The number of attributable cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), risk estimates from recent meta-analyses and population exposure prevalence estimates obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000). Age-sex-site-specific cancer incidence was obtained from Statistics Canada tables for the most up-to-date year with full national data, 2007. Where the evidence for association has been deemed sufficient, we estimated the number of incident cases of the following cancers attributable to obesity: colon, breast, endometrium, esophagus (adenocarcinomas), gallbladder, pancreas and kidney; and to physical inactivity: colon, breast, endometrium, prostate, lung and/or bronchus, and ovarian. Overall, estimates of all cancer incidence in 2007 suggest that at least 3.5% (n=5771) and 7.9% (n=12,885) are attributed to excess body weight and physical inactivity respectively. For both risk factors the burden of disease was greater among women than among men. Thousands of incident cases of cancer could be prevented annually in Canada as good evidence exists for effective interventions to reduce these risk factors in the population. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Effects of Extreme Temperature Events on Human Mortality in Europe: Winners and Losers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a sizable threat to public health. Besides the shift in mean temperatures, there is also a change in the frequency of extreme temperature events. While cold spells become less frequent, heat waves become more common. As either of these can cause human death, the net-effect of climate change in terms of human excess mortality is currently unclear and and will vary depending on local conditions. The ability to estimate this net-effect is key when it comes to designing effective climate change adaptation policies as some areas will be affected earlier and/or stronger than others. This work provides the first large-scale estimate of this net-effect for Europe. Utilizing a novel methodology based on singular systems analysis, climate extreme-driven excess mortality is estimated using national-level health data. The first notable finding of this work is the confirmation that extreme temperature events already pose a major environmental risk: tens of thousands of people die every year in the examined European countries as a result of heat waves and cold spells. The second important result is that it demonstrates the need for climate change mitigation: Assuming moderate climate change, some countries in Northern and Western Europe will benefit from the shift in extreme temperature events — they will experience a net-reduction in excess mortality as a result of a drastically reduced frequency of cold spells. In contrast, assuming severe climate change, there will be a significant increase in excess mortality, in particular across countries in Southern Europe. This means that -if climate adaptation fails- there will be no winners, just losers.

Ethnicity and excess mortality in severe mental illness: a cohort study.

PubMed

Das-Munshi, Jayati; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Dutta, Rina; Morgan, Craig; Nazroo, James; Stewart, Robert; Prince, Martin J

2017-05-01

Excess mortality in severe mental illness (defined here as schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar affective disorders) is well described, but little is known about this inequality in ethnic minorities. We aimed to estimate excess mortality for people with severe mental illness for five ethnic groups (white British, black Caribbean, black African, south Asian, and Irish) and to assess the association of ethnicity with mortality risk. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, from the case registry of the South London and Maudsley Trust (London, UK). We linked mortality data from the UK Office for National Statistics for the general population in England and Wales to our cohort, and determined all-cause and cause-specific mortality by ethnicity, standardised by age and sex to this population in 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios and a modified Cox regression, taking into account competing risks to derive sub-hazard ratios, for the association of ethnicity with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We identified 18 201 individuals with a valid diagnosis of severe mental illness (median follow-up 6·36 years, IQR 3·26-9·92), of whom 1767 died. Compared with the general population, age-and-sex-standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) in people with severe mental illness were increased for a range of causes, including suicides (7·65, 95% CI 6·43-9·04), non-suicide unnatural causes (4·01, 3·34-4·78), respiratory disease (3·38, 3·04-3·74), cardiovascular disease (2·65, 2·45-2·86), and cancers (1·45, 1·32-1·60). SMRs were broadly similar in different ethnic groups with severe mental illness, although the south Asian group had a reduced SMR for cancer mortality (0·49, 0·21-0·96). Within the cohort with severe mental illness, hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and sub-hazard ratios for natural-cause and unnatural-cause mortality were lower in most ethnic minority groups relative to the white British group. People with severe mental illness have excess mortality relative to the general population irrespective of ethnicity. Among those with severe mental illness, some ethnic minorities have lower mortality than the white British group, for which the reasons deserve further investigation. UK Health Foundation and UK Academy of Medical Sciences. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

PubMed

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs for obese adults rise more rapidly with aging relative to normal weight adults.

Reducing Potentially Excess Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in the Rural United States

PubMed

Garcia, Macarena C; Faul, Mark; Massetti, Greta; Thomas, Cheryll C; Hong, Yuling; Bauer, Ursula E; Iademarco, Michael F

2017-01-13

In 2014, the all-cause age-adjusted death rate in the United States reached a historic low of 724.6 per 100,000 population (1). However, mortality in rural (nonmetropolitan) areas of the United States has decreased at a much slower pace, resulting in a widening gap between rural mortality rates (830.5) and urban mortality rates (704.3) (1). During 1999–2014, annual age-adjusted death rates for the five leading causes of death in the United States (heart disease, cancer, unintentional injury, chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), and stroke) were higher in rural areas than in urban (metropolitan) areas (Figure 1). In most public health regions (Figure 2), the proportion of deaths among persons aged <80 years (U.S. average life expectancy) (2) from the five leading causes that were potentially excess deaths was higher in rural areas compared with urban areas (Figure 3). Several factors probably influence the rural-urban gap in potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes, many of which are associated with sociodemographic differences between rural and urban areas. Residents of rural areas in the United States tend to be older, poorer, and sicker than their urban counterparts (3). A higher proportion of the rural U.S. population reports limited physical activity because of chronic conditions than urban populations (4). Moreover, social circumstances and behaviors have an impact on mortality and potentially contribute to approximately half of the determining causes of potentially excess deaths (5).

The economic impact of Marfan syndrome: a non-experimental, retrospective, population-based matched cohort study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Marfan syndrome is a rare disease of the connective tissues, affecting multiple organ systems. Elevated morbidity and mortality in these patients raises the issue of costs for sickness funds and society. To date, there has been no study analysing the costs of Marfan syndrome from a sickness fund and societal perspective. Objective To estimate excess health resource utilisation, direct (non-)medical and indirect costs attributable to Marfan syndrome from a healthcare payer and a societal perspective in Germany in 2008. Methods A retrospective matched cohort study design is applied, using claims data. For isolating the causal effect of Marfan syndrome on excess costs, a genetic matching algorithm was used to reduce differences in observable characteristics between Marfan syndrome patients and the control group. 892 patients diagnosed with Marfan syndrome (ICD-10 Q87.4) were matched from a pool of 26,645 control individuals. After matching, we compared health resource utilisation and costs. Results From the sickness fund perspective, an average Marfan syndrome patient generates excess annual costs of €2496 compared with a control individual. From the societal perspective, excess annual costs amount to €15,728. For the sickness fund, the strongest cost drivers are inpatient treatment and care by non-physicians. From the sickness fund perspective, the third (25–41 years) and first (0–16 years) age quartiles reveal the greatest surplus in total costs. Marfan syndrome patients have 39% more physician contacts, a 153% longer average length of hospital stay, 119% more inpatient stays, 33% more prescriptions, 236% more medical imaging and 20% higher average prescription costs than control individuals. Depending on the prevalence, the economic impact from the sickness fund perspective ranges between €24.0 million and €61.4 million, whereas the societal economic impact extends from €151.3 million to €386.9 million. Conclusions Relative to its low frequency, Marfan syndrome requires high healthcare expenditure. Not only the high costs of Marfan syndrome but also its burden on patients’ lives call for more awareness from policy-makers, physicians and clinical researchers. Consequently, the diagnosis and treatment of Marfan syndrome should begin as soon as possible in order to prevent disease complications, early mortality and substantial healthcare expenditure. PMID:24954169

The economic impact of Marfan syndrome: a non-experimental, retrospective, population-based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Achelrod, Dmitrij; Blankart, Carl Rudolf; Linder, Roland; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Stargardt, Tom

2014-06-23

Marfan syndrome is a rare disease of the connective tissues, affecting multiple organ systems. Elevated morbidity and mortality in these patients raises the issue of costs for sickness funds and society. To date, there has been no study analysing the costs of Marfan syndrome from a sickness fund and societal perspective. To estimate excess health resource utilisation, direct (non-)medical and indirect costs attributable to Marfan syndrome from a healthcare payer and a societal perspective in Germany in 2008. A retrospective matched cohort study design is applied, using claims data. For isolating the causal effect of Marfan syndrome on excess costs, a genetic matching algorithm was used to reduce differences in observable characteristics between Marfan syndrome patients and the control group. 892 patients diagnosed with Marfan syndrome (ICD-10 Q87.4) were matched from a pool of 26,645 control individuals. After matching, we compared health resource utilisation and costs. From the sickness fund perspective, an average Marfan syndrome patient generates excess annual costs of €2496 compared with a control individual. From the societal perspective, excess annual costs amount to €15,728. For the sickness fund, the strongest cost drivers are inpatient treatment and care by non-physicians. From the sickness fund perspective, the third (25-41 years) and first (0-16 years) age quartiles reveal the greatest surplus in total costs. Marfan syndrome patients have 39% more physician contacts, a 153% longer average length of hospital stay, 119% more inpatient stays, 33% more prescriptions, 236% more medical imaging and 20% higher average prescription costs than control individuals. Depending on the prevalence, the economic impact from the sickness fund perspective ranges between €24.0 million and €61.4 million, whereas the societal economic impact extends from €151.3 million to €386.9 million. Relative to its low frequency, Marfan syndrome requires high healthcare expenditure. Not only the high costs of Marfan syndrome but also its burden on patients' lives call for more awareness from policy-makers, physicians and clinical researchers. Consequently, the diagnosis and treatment of Marfan syndrome should begin as soon as possible in order to prevent disease complications, early mortality and substantial healthcare expenditure.

Dominance of Endozoicomonas bacteria throughout coral bleaching and mortality suggests structural inflexibility of the Pocillopora verrucosa microbiome.

PubMed

Pogoreutz, Claudia; Rädecker, Nils; Cárdenas, Anny; Gärdes, Astrid; Wild, Christian; Voolstra, Christian R

2018-02-01

The importance of Symbiodinium algal endosymbionts and a diverse suite of bacteria for coral holobiont health and functioning are widely acknowledged. Yet, we know surprisingly little about microbial community dynamics and the stability of host-microbe associations under adverse environmental conditions. To gain insight into the stability of coral host-microbe associations and holobiont structure, we assessed changes in the community structure of Symbiodinium and bacteria associated with the coral Pocillopora verrucosa under excess organic nutrient conditions. Pocillopora -associated microbial communities were monitored over 14 days in two independent experiments. We assessed the effect of excess dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and excess dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Exposure to excess nutrients rapidly affected coral health, resulting in two distinct stress phenotypes: coral bleaching under excess DOC and severe tissue sloughing (>90% tissue loss resulting in host mortality) under excess DON. These phenotypes were accompanied by structural changes in the Symbiodinium community. In contrast, the associated bacterial community remained remarkably stable and was dominated by two Endozoicomonas phylotypes, comprising on average 90% of 16S rRNA gene sequences. This dominance of Endozoicomonas even under conditions of coral bleaching and mortality suggests the bacterial community of P. verrucosa may be rather inflexible and thereby unable to respond or acclimatize to rapid changes in the environment, contrary to what was previously observed in other corals. In this light, our results suggest that coral holobionts might occupy structural landscapes ranging from a highly flexible to a rather inflexible composition with consequences for their ability to respond to environmental change.

Definition of temperature thresholds: the example of the French heat wave warning system.

PubMed

Pascal, Mathilde; Wagner, Vérène; Le Tertre, Alain; Laaidi, Karine; Honoré, Cyrille; Bénichou, Françoise; Beaudeau, Pascal

2013-01-01

Heat-related deaths should be somewhat preventable. In France, some prevention measures are activated when minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over three days reach city-specific thresholds. The current thresholds were computed based on a descriptive analysis of past heat waves and on local expert judgement. We tested whether a different method would confirm these thresholds. The study was set in the six cities of Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Strasbourg and Limoges between 1973 and 2003. For each city, we estimated the excess in mortality associated with different temperature thresholds, using a generalised additive model, controlling for long-time trends, seasons and days of the week. These models were used to compute the mortality predicted by different percentiles of temperatures. The thresholds were chosen as the percentiles associated with a significant excess mortality. In all cities, there was a good correlation between current thresholds and the thresholds derived from the models, with 0°C to 3°C differences for averaged maximum temperatures. Both set of thresholds were able to anticipate the main periods of excess mortality during the summers of 1973 to 2003. A simple method relying on descriptive analysis and expert judgement is sufficient to define protective temperature thresholds and to prevent heat wave mortality. As temperatures are increasing along with the climate change and adaptation is ongoing, more research is required to understand if and when thresholds should be modified.

Mortality in two recent reports of clinical trials on patients with congestive heart failure compared with mortality in three previous clinical trials.

PubMed

Singer, R B

2000-01-01

Several clinical trials of drug treatment of patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) have previously been reported as Mortality Abstracts in the Journal of Insurance Medicine. Results are presented here for two similar clinical trials reported in September 1999 and compared with the previous results. In a recent international multicenter clinical trial, excess mortality in terms of excess death rates (EDRs) was reduced from 195 per 1000 per year in the placebo group to 139 in the group treated with Spironolactone. There was no significant reduction in the Danish multicenter study of Dofetilide to convert the atrial fibrillation (AF) to a normal rhythm in the 25% of the CHF patients who had AF (EDR was 224 in the placebo group and 216 in the Dofetilide group). In both of these studies, there were more patients with severe CHF than in the previous studies and the EDR values were higher. Results from the Danish study by severity according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification show a progressive increase in EDR from 173 in class 2 to 237 in class 3 to 392 in class 4. Excess mortality in symptomatic CHF is far outside the issue limits for individual life insurance, but these results are of potential utility for the underwriting of such cases for structured settlement annuities.

[The health gap in Mexico, measured through child mortality].

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; Bertozzi, Stefano M

2003-01-01

To estimate the health gap in Mexico, as evidenced by the difference between the observed 1998 mortality rate and the estimated rate and the estimated rate for the same year according to social and economic indicators, with rates from other countries. An econometric model was developed, using the 1998 child mortality rate (CMR) as the dependent variable, and macro-social and economic indicators as independent variables. The model included 70 countries for which complete data were available. The proposed model explained over 90% of the variability in CMR among countries. The expected CMR for Mexico was 22% lower that the observed rate, which represented nearly 20,000 excess deaths. After adjusting for differences in productivity, distribution of wealth, and investment in human capital, the excess child mortality rate suggested efficiency problems in the Mexican health system, at least in relation to services intended to reduce child mortality. The English version of this paper is available at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

Age- and gender-specific population attributable risks of metabolic disorders on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Taiwan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The extent of attributable risks of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on mortality remains unclear, especially with respect to age and gender. We aimed to assess the age- and gender-specific population attributable risks (PARs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality and all-cause mortality for public health planning. Methods A total of 2,092 men and 2,197 women 30 years of age and older, who were included in the 2002 Taiwan Survey of Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), were linked to national death certificates acquired through December 31, 2009. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and PARs for mortality, with a median follow-up of 7.7 years. Results The respective PAR percentages of MetS for all-cause and CVD-related mortality were 11.6 and 39.2 in men, respectively, and 18.6 and 44.4 in women, respectively. Central obesity had the highest PAR for CVD mortality in women (57.5%), whereas arterial hypertension had the highest PAR in men (57.5%). For all-cause mortality, younger men and post-menopausal women had higher PARs related to Mets and its components; for CVD mortality, post-menopausal women had higher overall PARs than their pre-menopausal counterparts. Conclusions MetS has a limited application to the PAR for all-cause mortality, especially in men; its PAR for CVD mortality is more evident. For CVD mortality, MetS components have higher PARs than MetS itself, especially hypertension in men and waist circumference in post-menopausal women. In addition, PARs for diabetes mellitus and low HDL-cholesterol may exceed 20%. We suggest differential control of risk factors in different subpopulation as a strategy to prevent CVD-related mortality. PMID:22321049

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study

PubMed Central

Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-01-01

Objective To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Design Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Setting Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. Population All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Main outcome measures Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). Results During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Conclusion Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health. PMID:21325004

Excess mortality associated with hypopituitarism in adults: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Pappachan, Joseph M; Raskauskiene, Diana; Kutty, V Raman; Clayton, Richard N

2015-04-01

Several previous observational studies showed an association between hypopituitarism and excess mortality. Reports on reduction of standard mortality ratio (SMR) with GH replacement have been published recently. This meta-analysis assessed studies reporting SMR to clarify mortality risk in hypopituitary adults and also the potential benefit conferred by GH replacement. A literature search was performed in Medline, Embase, and Cochrane library up to March 31, 2014. Studies with or without GH replacement reporting SMR with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were included. Patient characteristics, SMR data, and treatment outcomes were independently assessed by two authors, and with consensus from third author, studies were selected for analysis. Meta-analysis was performed in all studies together, and those without and with GH replacement separately, using the statistical package metafor in R. Six studies reporting a total of 19 153 hypopituiatary adults with a follow-up duration of more than 99,000 person years were analyzed. Hypopituitarism was associated with an overall excess mortality (weighted SMR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.21-2.76) in adults. Female hypopituitary adults showed higher SMR compared with males (2.53 vs 1.71). Onset of hypopituitarism at a younger age was associated with higher SMR. GH replacement improved the mortality risk in hypopituitary adults that is comparable to the background population (SMR with GH replacement, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24 vs SMR without GH, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.46-3.34). GH replacement conferred lower mortality benefit in hypopituitary women compared with men (SMR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.38-1.77 vs 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.06). There was a potential selection bias of benefit of GH replacement from a post-marketing data necessitating further evidence from long-term randomized controlled trials. Hypopituitarism may increase premature mortality in adults. Mortality benefit from GH replacement in hypopituitarism is less pronounced in women than men.

Health Care Outcomes in the Black Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yabura, Lloyd

1977-01-01

Notes that the forces of exploitation and racism relegate millions of human beings to a developmental cycle characterized by excessive and disproportionate infant mortality, maternal mortality, premature births, hunger and malnutrition, lead poisoning and untreated chronic disabilities. (Author)

Excess Length of Stay Attributable to Clostridium difficile Infection (CDI) in the Acute Care Setting: A Multistate Model.

PubMed

Stevens, Vanessa W; Khader, Karim; Nelson, Richard E; Jones, Makoto; Rubin, Michael A; Brown, Kevin A; Evans, Martin E; Greene, Tom; Slade, Eric; Samore, Matthew H

2015-09-01

Standard estimates of the impact of Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) on inpatient lengths of stay (LOS) may overstate inpatient care costs attributable to CDI. In this study, we used multistate modeling (MSM) of CDI timing to reduce bias in estimates of excess LOS. A retrospective cohort study of all hospitalizations at any of 120 acute care facilities within the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 2005 and 2012 was conducted. We estimated the excess LOS attributable to CDI using an MSM to address time-dependent bias. Bootstrapping was used to generate 95% confidence intervals (CI). These estimates were compared to unadjusted differences in mean LOS for hospitalizations with and without CDI. During the study period, there were 3.96 million hospitalizations and 43,540 CDIs. A comparison of unadjusted means suggested an excess LOS of 14.0 days (19.4 vs 5.4 days). In contrast, the MSM estimated an attributable LOS of only 2.27 days (95% CI, 2.14-2.40). The excess LOS for mild-to-moderate CDI was 0.75 days (95% CI, 0.59-0.89), and for severe CDI, it was 4.11 days (95% CI, 3.90-4.32). Substantial variation across the Veteran Integrated Services Networks (VISN) was observed. CDI significantly contributes to LOS, but the magnitude of its estimated impact is smaller when methods are used that account for the time-varying nature of infection. The greatest impact on LOS occurred among patients with severe CDI. Significant geographic variability was observed. MSM is a useful tool for obtaining more accurate estimates of the inpatient care costs of CDI.

Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone

PubMed Central

Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

2016-01-01

Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07–1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35–44 years than ≥65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10–1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02–1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01–2.48) and the southernmost zone of California’s Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21–1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions. PMID:27005646

Spatial variation in attributable risks.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2015-01-01

The attributable risk (AR) measures the contribution of a particular risk factor to a disease, and allows estimation of disease rates specific to that risk. While previous studies consider variability in ARs over demographic categories, this paper considers the extent of spatial variability in ARs estimated from multilevel data with confounders both at individual and geographic levels. A case study considers the AR for diabetes in relation to elevated BMI, and area rates for diabetes attributable to excess weight. Contextual adjustment includes known area variables, and unobserved spatially clustered influences, while spatial heterogeneity (effect modification) is considered in terms of varying effects of elevated BMI by neighbourhood deprivation category. The application is to patient register data in London, with clear evidence of spatial variation in ARs, and in small area diabetes rates attributable to excess weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes burden in Brazil: fraction attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight

PubMed Central

Flor, Luísa Sorio; Campos, Monica Rodrigues; de Oliveira, Andreia Ferreira; Schramm, Joyce Mendes de Andrade

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To estimate the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its percentage attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil. METHODS The burden of diabetes mellitus was described in terms of disability-adjusted life years, which is the sum of two components: years of life lost and years lived with disability. To calculate the fraction of diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, we used the prevalence of these risk factors according to sex and age groups (> 20 years) obtained from the 2008 Pesquisa Dimensões Sociais das Desigualdades (Social Dimensions of Inequality Survey) and the relative risks derived from the international literature. RESULTS Diabetes mellitus accounted for 5.4% of Brazilian disability-adjusted life years in 2008, with the largest fraction attributed to the morbidity component (years lived with disability). Women exhibited higher values for disability-adjusted life years. In Brazil, 49.2%, 58.3%, and 70.6% of diabetes mellitus in women was attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, respectively. Among men, these percentages were 40.5%, 45.4%, and 60.3%, respectively. Differences were observed with respect to Brazilian regions and age groups. CONCLUSIONS A large fraction of diabetes mellitus was attributable to preventable individual risk factors and, in about six years, the contribution of these factors significant increased, particularly among men. Policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyle habits, such as a balanced diet and physical activity, can have a significant impact on reducing the burden of diabetes mellitus in Brazil. PMID:26018787

Diabetes burden in Brazil: fraction attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight.

PubMed

Flor, Luísa Sorio; Campos, Monica Rodrigues; Oliveira, Andreia Ferreira de; Schramm, Joyce Mendes de Andrade

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To estimate the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its percentage attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil. METHODS The burden of diabetes mellitus was described in terms of disability-adjusted life years, which is the sum of two components: years of life lost and years lived with disability. To calculate the fraction of diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, we used the prevalence of these risk factors according to sex and age groups (> 20 years) obtained from the 2008 Pesquisa Dimensões Sociais das Desigualdades (Social Dimensions of Inequality Survey) and the relative risks derived from the international literature. RESULTS Diabetes mellitus accounted for 5.4% of Brazilian disability-adjusted life years in 2008, with the largest fraction attributed to the morbidity component (years lived with disability). Women exhibited higher values for disability-adjusted life years. In Brazil, 49.2%, 58.3%, and 70.6% of diabetes mellitus in women was attributable to overweight, obesity, and excess weight, respectively. Among men, these percentages were 40.5%, 45.4%, and 60.3%, respectively. Differences were observed with respect to Brazilian regions and age groups. CONCLUSIONS A large fraction of diabetes mellitus was attributable to preventable individual risk factors and, in about six years, the contribution of these factors significant increased, particularly among men. Policies aimed at promoting healthy lifestyle habits, such as a balanced diet and physical activity, can have a significant impact on reducing the burden of diabetes mellitus in Brazil.

The Disproportionate Cost of Smoking for African Americans in California

PubMed Central

Sung, Hai-Yen; Tucker, Lue-Yen; Stark, Brad

2010-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the economic impact of smoking on African Americans in California in 2002, including smoking-attributable health care expenditures and productivity losses from smoking-caused mortality. Methods. We estimated econometric models of smoking-attributable ambulatory care, prescription drugs, inpatient care, and home health care using national and state survey data. We assessed smoking-attributable mortality using epidemiological models. Results. Adult smoking prevalence for African Americans was 19.3% compared with 15.4% for all Californians. The health care cost of smoking was $626 million for the African American community. A total of 3013 African American Californians died of smoking-attributable illness in 2002, representing a loss of over 49 000 years of life and $784 million in productivity. The total cost of smoking for this community amounted to $1.4 billion, or $1.8 billion expressed in 2008 dollars. Conclusions. Although African Americans account for 6% of the California adult population, they account for over 8% of smoking-attributable expenditures and fully 13% of smoking-attributable mortality costs. Our findings confirm the need to tailor tobacco control programs to African Americans to mitigate the disproportionate burden of smoking for this community. PMID:19965569

Enduring health effects of asbestos use in Belgian industries: a record-linked cohort study of cause-specific mortality (2001–2009)

PubMed Central

Van den Borre, Laura; Deboosere, Patrick

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate cause-specific mortality among asbestos workers and potentially exposed workers in Belgium and evaluate potential excess in mortality due to established and suspected asbestos-related diseases. Design This cohort study is based on an individual record linkage between the 1991 Belgian census and cause-specific mortality information for Flanders and Brussels (2001–2009). Setting Belgium (Flanders and Brussels region). Participants The study population consists of 1 397 699 male workers (18–65 years) with 72 074 deaths between 1 October 2001 and 31 December 2009. Using a classification of high-risk industries, mortality patterns between 2056 asbestos workers, 385 046 potentially exposed workers and the working population have been compared. Outcome measures Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% CIs are calculated for manual and non-manual workers. Results Our findings show clear excess in asbestos-related mortality in the asbestos industry with SMRs for mesothelioma of 4071 (CI 2327 to 6611) among manual workers and of 4489 (CI 1458 to 10 476) among non-manual workers. Excess risks in asbestos-related mortality are also found in the chemical industry, the construction industry, the electrical generation and distribution industry, the basic metals manufacturing industry, the metal products manufacturing industry, the railroad industry, and the shipping industry. Oral cancer mortality is significantly higher for asbestos workers (SMR 383; CI 124 to 894), railroad workers (SMR 192; CI 112 to 308), shipping workers (SMR 172; CI 102 to 271) and construction workers (SMR 125; CI 100 to 153), indicating a possible association with occupational asbestos exposure. Workers in all four industries have elevated mortality rates for cancer of the mouth. Only construction workers experience significantly higher pharyngeal cancer mortality (SMR 151; CI 104 to 212). Conclusions The study identifies vulnerable groups of Belgian asbestos workers, demonstrating the current-day health repercussions of historical asbestos use. Results support the hypothesis of a possible association between the development of oral cancer and occupational asbestos exposure. PMID:26109114

Pre-Stroke Weight Loss is Associated with Post-Stroke Mortality among Men in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study

PubMed Central

Bell, Christina L.; Rantanen, Taina; Chen, Randi; Davis, James; Petrovitch, Helen; Ross, G. Webster; Masaki, Kamal

2013-01-01

Objective To examine baseline pre-stroke weight loss and post-stroke mortality among men. Design Longitudinal study of late-life pre-stroke body mass index (BMI), weight loss and BMI change (midlife to late-life), with up to 8-year incident stroke and mortality follow-up. Setting Honolulu Heart Program/Honolulu-Asia Aging Study. Participants 3,581 Japanese-American men aged 71–93 years and stroke-free at baseline. Main Outcome Measure Post-stroke Mortality: 30-day post-stroke, analyzed with stepwise multivariable logistic regression and long-term post-stroke (up to 8-year), analyzed with stepwise multivariable Cox regression. Results Weight loss (10-pound decrements) was associated with increased 30-day post-stroke mortality (aOR=1.48, 95%CI 1.14–1.92), long-term mortality after incident stroke (all types n=225, aHR=1.25, 95%CI=1.09–1.44) and long-term mortality after incident thromboembolic stroke (n=153, aHR 1.19, 95%CI-1.01–1.40). Men with overweight/obese late-life BMI (≥25kg/m2, compared to normal/underweight BMI) had increased long-term mortality after incident hemorrhagic stroke (n=54, aHR=2.27, 95%CI=1.07–4.82). Neither desirable nor excessive BMI reductions (vs. no change/increased BMI) were associated with post-stroke mortality. In the overall sample (n=3,581), nutrition factors associated with increased long-term mortality included 1) weight loss (10-pound decrements, aHR=1.15, 1.09–1.21); 2) underweight BMI (vs. normal BMI, aHR=1.76, 1.40–2.20); and 3) both desirable and excessive BMI reductions (vs. no change or gain, separate model from weight loss and BMI, aHRs=1.36–1.97, p<0.001). Conclusions Although obesity is a risk factor for stroke incidence, pre-stroke weight loss was associated with increased post-stroke (all types and thromboembolic) mortality. Overweight/obese late-life BMI was associated with increased post-hemorrhagic stroke mortality. Desirable and excessive BMI reductions were not associated with post-stroke mortality. Weight loss, underweight late-life BMI and any BMI reduction were all associated with increased long-term mortality in the overall sample. PMID:24113337

Current trends in survivorship of radiologists. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

A study was made of the deaths of physicians who entered the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA), the American College of Physicians (ACP), the American Academy of Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology (AAOO), the American Roentgen Ray Society (ARRS), and the American Association of Pathologists and Bacteriologists (AAPB) societies from the 1900's through 1969. The findings indicated an excess risk of cancer and of all-cause mortality in radiologists. The early cohorts of radiologists showed a significant excess risk of leukemia, skin cancer, and aplastic anemia compared to the other groups of physicians. After 1940, all entrants into these cohorts demonstrated nomore » excess risk of leukemia. An excess risk of multiple myeloma appeared in radiologists and a slight excess in otolaryngologists. In radiologists, the risk of all cause mortality appeared to begin about 8 to 9 years following entrance into the specialty and remained higher through the life span of those involved in this field; the high risk of all cancers appears to occur 10 to 12 years after entering the specialty.« less

Maternal education and risk of offspring death; changing patterns from 16 weeks of gestation until one year after birth.

PubMed

Carlsen, Fredrik; Grytten, Jostein; Eskild, Anne

2014-02-01

The social disparity in perinatal mortality may vary by the age of the offspring. We studied offspring mortality from pregnancy week 16 until 1 year after birth by maternal educational level. We included all births in Norwegian women during the years 1999-2004 (n = 297 663). The Medical Birth Registry of Norway was linked to the Norwegian Education Registry to obtain individual information on maternal education at the time of delivery. Information on infant mortality was obtained by linkage to the Norwegian Central Person Registry. In pregnancy weeks 37 through 43 and in the first week after birth, there was little difference in offspring mortality by maternal education. Before pregnancy week 37, the excess offspring mortality associated with compulsory school only was >60% using university/college education as the reference. During the 2nd through 12th month after birth, the excess mortality was 132% in offspring of mothers with compulsory school only. The social disparity in offspring mortality was lowest in pregnancies at term and in the first week after birth. In this period, all women living in Norway and their infants use the public health care service extensively. Our results may suggest that health care that is equally available to all citizens, reduces social disparities in mortality.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Absolute Effect of Prostate Cancer Screening: Balance of benefits and harms by center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Auvinen, Anssi; Moss, Sue M; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Taari, Kimmo; Roobol, Monique J; Schröder, Fritz H; Bangma, Chris H; Carlsson, Sigrid; Aus, Gunnar; Zappa, Marco; Puliti, Donella; Denis, Louis J; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Randazzo, Marco; Paez, Alvaro; Lujan, Marcos; Hugosson, Jonas

2016-01-01

Purpose The balance of benefits and harms in prostate cancer screening has not been sufficiently characterized. We related indicators of mortality reduction and overdetection by center within the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening. Experimental Design We analyzed the absolute mortality reduction expressed as number needed to invite (NNI=1/absolute risk reduction; indicating how many men had to be randomized to screening arm to avert a prostate cancer death) for screening and the absolute excess of prostate cancer detection as number needed for overdetection (NNO=1/absolute excess incidence; indicating the number of men invited per additional prostate cancer case), and compared their relationship across the seven ERSPC centers. Results Both absolute mortality reduction (NNI) and absolute overdetection (NNO) varied widely between the centers: NNI 200-7000 and NNO 16-69. Extent of overdiagnosis and mortality reduction were closely associated (correlation coefficient r=0.76, weighted linear regression coefficient β=33, 95% 5-62, R2=0.72). For an averted prostate cancer death at 13 years of follow-up, 12-36 excess cases had to be detected in various centers. Conclusions The differences between the ERSPC centers likely reflect variations in prostate cancer incidence and mortality, as well as in screening protocol and performance. The strong interrelation between the benefits and harms suggests that efforts to maximize the mortality effect are bound to increase overdiagnosis, and might be improved by focusing on high-risk populations. The optimal balance between screening intensity and risk of overdiagnosis remains unclear. PMID:26289069

Geographic Variation in Morbidity and Mortality of Cerebrovascular Diseases in Korea during 2011-2015.

PubMed

Lee, Juyeon; Bahk, Jinwook; Kim, Ikhan; Kim, Yeon-Yong; Yun, Sung-Cheol; Kang, Hee-Yeon; Lee, Jeehye; Park, Jong Heon; Shin, Soon-Ae; Khang, Young-Ho

2018-03-01

Little is known about within-country variation in morbidity and mortality of cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). Geographic differences in CVD morbidity and mortality have yet to be properly examined. This study examined geographic variation in morbidity and mortality of CVD, neighborhood factors for CVD morbidity and mortality, and the association between CVD morbidity and mortality across the 245 local districts in Korea during 2011-2015. District-level health care utilization and mortality data were obtained to estimate age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality. The bivariate Pearson correlation was used to examine the linear relationship between district-level CVD morbidity and mortality Z-scores. Simple linear regression and multivariate analyses were conducted to investigate the associations of area characteristics with CVD morbidity, mortality, and discrepancies between morbidity and mortality. Substantial variation was found in CVD morbidity and mortality across the country, with 1074.9 excess CVD inpatients and 73.8 excess CVD deaths per 100,000 between the districts with the lowest and highest CVD morbidity and mortality, respectively. Higher rates of CVD admissions and deaths were clustered in the noncapital regions. A moderate geographic correlation between CVD morbidity and mortality was found (Pearson correlation coefficient = .62 for both genders). Neighborhood level indicators for socioeconomic disadvantages, undersupply of health care resources, and unhealthy behaviors were positively associated with CVD morbidity and mortality and the relative standing of CVD mortality vis-à-vis morbidity. Policy actions targeting life-course socioeconomic conditions, equitable distribution of health care resources, and behavioral risk factors may help reduce geographic differences in CVD morbidity and mortality in Korea. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonesterified fatty acids and cardiovascular mortality in elderly men with CKD.

PubMed

Xiong, Zibo; Xu, Hong; Huang, Xiaoyan; Ärnlöv, Johan; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Cederholm, Tommy; Sjögren, Per; Lindholm, Bengt; Risérus, Ulf; Carrero, Juan Jesús

2015-04-07

Although nonesterified fatty acids (NEFAs) are essential as energy substrate for the myocardium, an excess of circulating NEFAs can be harmful. This study aimed to assess plausible relationships between serum NEFA and mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with CKD. This was a prospective cohort study from the third examination cycle of the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a population-based survey of 1221 elderly men aged 70-71 years residing in Uppsala, Sweden. Data collection took place during 1991-1995. All participants had measures of kidney function; this study investigated 623 (51.7%) of these patients with manifest CKD (defined as either eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) or urine albumin excretion rate ≥20 µg/min). Follow-up for mortality was done from examination date until death or December 31, 2007. After a median follow-up of 14 years (interquartile range, 8-16.8), associations of NEFAs with mortality (related to all causes, CVD, ischemic heart disease [IHD], or acute myocardial infarction) were ascertained. The median serum NEFA was 14.1 mg/dl (interquartile range, 11.3-17.8). No association was found with measures of kidney function. Diabetes and serum triglycerides were the only multivariate correlates of NEFA. During follow-up, 453 participants died, of which 209 deaths were due to CVD, including 88 IHD deaths, with 41 attributed to acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In fully adjusted covariates, serum NEFA was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per log2 increase, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.00 to 1.48) and CVD-related death (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.99), including both IHD (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.00 to 2.32) and AMI mortality (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.98). Elevated serum NEFA associated with CVD mortality, and particularly with mortality due to AMI, in a homogeneous population of older men with moderate CKD. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Nonesterified Fatty Acids and Cardiovascular Mortality in Elderly Men with CKD

PubMed Central

Xiong, Zibo; Xu, Hong; Huang, Xiaoyan; Ärnlöv, Johan; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Cederholm, Tommy; Sjögren, Per; Lindholm, Bengt; Risérus, Ulf

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Although nonesterified fatty acids (NEFAs) are essential as energy substrate for the myocardium, an excess of circulating NEFAs can be harmful. This study aimed to assess plausible relationships between serum NEFA and mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with CKD. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This was a prospective cohort study from the third examination cycle of the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a population-based survey of 1221 elderly men aged 70–71 years residing in Uppsala, Sweden. Data collection took place during 1991–1995. All participants had measures of kidney function; this study investigated 623 (51.7%) of these patients with manifest CKD (defined as either eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or urine albumin excretion rate ≥20 µg/min). Follow-up for mortality was done from examination date until death or December 31, 2007. After a median follow-up of 14 years (interquartile range, 8–16.8), associations of NEFAs with mortality (related to all causes, CVD, ischemic heart disease [IHD], or acute myocardial infarction) were ascertained. Results The median serum NEFA was 14.1 mg/dl (interquartile range, 11.3–17.8). No association was found with measures of kidney function. Diabetes and serum triglycerides were the only multivariate correlates of NEFA. During follow-up, 453 participants died, of which 209 deaths were due to CVD, including 88 IHD deaths, with 41 attributed to acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In fully adjusted covariates, serum NEFA was an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per log2 increase, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.00 to 1.48) and CVD-related death (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.99), including both IHD (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.00 to 2.32) and AMI mortality (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.98). Conclusions Elevated serum NEFA associated with CVD mortality, and particularly with mortality due to AMI, in a homogeneous population of older men with moderate CKD. PMID:25637632

Impact of Nonoptimal Intakes of Saturated, Polyunsaturated, and Trans Fat on Global Burdens of Coronary Heart Disease.

PubMed

Wang, Qianyi; Afshin, Ashkan; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Singh, Gitanjali M; Rehm, Colin D; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Micha, Renata; Shi, Peilin; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-01-20

Saturated fat (SFA), ω-6 (n-6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. National intakes of SFA, n-6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country-specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta-analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700-745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900-265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600-557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%-10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%-3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%-7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil-consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n-6 PUFA- and SFA-attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA-attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n-6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low- and middle-income countries. Nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation-specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%); Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios. PMID:27973401

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

PubMed Central

Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS. PMID:22456494

Mortality among men and women in same-sex marriage: a national cohort study of 8333 Danes.

PubMed

Frisch, Morten; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2009-01-01

We studied overall mortality in a demographically defined, complete cohort of gay men and lesbians to address recent claims of markedly shorter life spans among homosexual persons. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) starting 1 year after the date of same-sex marriage for 4914 men and 3419 women in Denmark who married a same-sex partner between 1989 and 2004. Mortality was markedly increased in the first decade after same-sex marriage for men who married between 1989 and 1995 (SMR=2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.01, 2.50), but much less so for men who married after 1995, when efficient HIV/AIDS therapies were available (SMR=1.33; 95% CI=1.04, 1.68). For women who married their same-sex partner between 1989 and 2004, mortality was 34% higher than was mortality in the general female population (SMR=1.34; 95% CI=1.09, 1.63). For women, and for men marrying after 1995, the significant excess mortality was limited to the period 1 to 3 years after the marriage. Despite recent marked reduction in mortality among gay men, Danish men and women in same-sex marriages still have mortality rates that exceed those of the general population. The excess mortality is restricted to the first few years after a marriage, presumably reflecting preexisting illness at the time of marriage. Although further study is needed, the claims of drastically increased overall mortality in gay men and lesbians appear unjustified.

National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005–2009

PubMed Central

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M.; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

2015-01-01

Background Globally, opioid drug use is an important cause of premature mortality. In many countries, opioid using populations are ageing. The current study investigates mortality in a large cohort of opioid users; with a focus on testing whether excess mortality changes with age. Methods 198,247 opioid users in England were identified from drug treatment and criminal justice sources (April, 2005 to March, 2009) and linked to mortality records. Mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by age-group and gender. Results There were 3974 deaths from all causes (SMR 5.7, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.5 to 5.9). Drug-related poisonings (1715) accounted for 43% of deaths. Relative to gender-and-age-appropriate expectation, mortality was elevated for a range of major causes including: infectious, respiratory, circulatory, liver disease, suicide, and homicide. Drug-related poisoning mortality risk continued to increase beyond 45 years and there were age-related increases in SMRs for specific causes of death (infectious, cancer, liver cirrhosis, and homicide). A gender by age-group interaction revealed that whilst men have a greater drug-related poisoning mortality risk than women at younger ages, the difference narrows with increasing age. Conclusion Opioid users’ excess mortality persists into old age and for some causes is exacerbated. This study highlights the importance of managing the complex health needs of older opioid users. PMID:25454405

National record linkage study of mortality for a large cohort of opioid users ascertained by drug treatment or criminal justice sources in England, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Pierce, Matthias; Bird, Sheila M; Hickman, Matthew; Millar, Tim

2015-01-01

Globally, opioid drug use is an important cause of premature mortality. In many countries, opioid using populations are ageing. The current study investigates mortality in a large cohort of opioid users; with a focus on testing whether excess mortality changes with age. 198,247 opioid users in England were identified from drug treatment and criminal justice sources (April, 2005 to March, 2009) and linked to mortality records. Mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated by age-group and gender. There were 3974 deaths from all causes (SMR 5.7, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.5 to 5.9). Drug-related poisonings (1715) accounted for 43% of deaths. Relative to gender-and-age-appropriate expectation, mortality was elevated for a range of major causes including: infectious, respiratory, circulatory, liver disease, suicide, and homicide. Drug-related poisoning mortality risk continued to increase beyond 45 years and there were age-related increases in SMRs for specific causes of death (infectious, cancer, liver cirrhosis, and homicide). A gender by age-group interaction revealed that whilst men have a greater drug-related poisoning mortality risk than women at younger ages, the difference narrows with increasing age. Opioid users' excess mortality persists into old age and for some causes is exacerbated. This study highlights the importance of managing the complex health needs of older opioid users. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Resource utilization associated with cervical hematoma after thyroid and parathyroid surgery.

PubMed

Greenleaf, Erin K; Goyal, Neerav; Hollenbeak, Christopher S; Boltz, Melissa M

2017-10-01

Postoperative cervical hematoma (PCH) after thyroid and parathyroid surgery is a well-known complication. This study used data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to identify risk factors, estimate mortality, length of stay (LOS), and total costs attributable to PCH in patients undergoing procedures for thyroid and parathyroid diseases. Patients aged >18 y who underwent thyroid or parathyroid surgery between 2001 and 2011 were identified and stratified by the occurrence of PCH. Univariate analyses of patient demographics, clinical and hospital characteristics were performed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for hematoma formation. LOS and costs were fit to linear regression models to determine the effect of PCH after adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. Of patients who underwent thyroid or parathyroid surgery, 619 patients (0.8%) had a PCH. Predisposing factors included nonelective admission (emergent: OR = 2.01, P < 0.0001; urgent: OR = 1.47, P = 0.003), diagnosis of Graves' disease (OR = 1.90, P < 0.0001), or other benign pathology (OR = 1.43, P = 0.011) and having ≥2 comorbidities (2-3 comorbidities, OR = 1.24; P = 0.036 and ≥ 4 comorbidities, OR = 2.28; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for those characteristics, the total excess LOS and costs attributable to PCH were 2.1 d (P < 0.0001) and $7316 (P < 0.0001), respectively. In addition, after risk adjustment, odds of mortality more than tripled (P < 0.0001) in the setting of PCH. Because risk for PCH is largely driven by preoperative patient risk factors, five clinicians have an opportunity to stratify patients accordingly and thereby minimize the resource utilization and health care spending among those with lowest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed Central

Barceló, Alberto; Aedo, Cristian; Rajpathak, Swapnil; Robles, Sylvia

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To measure the economic burden associated with diabetes mellitus in Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS: Prevalence estimates of diabetes for the year 2000 were used to calculated direct and indirect costs of diabetes mellitus. Direct costs included costs due to drugs, hospitalizations, consultations and management of complications. The human capital approach was used to calculate indirect costs and included calculations of forgone earnings due to premature mortality and disability attributed to diabetes mellitus. Mortality and disability attributed to causes other than diabetes were subtracted from estimates to consider only the excess burden due to diabetes. A 3% discount rate was used to convert future earnings to current value. FINDINGS: The annual number of deaths in 2000 caused by diabetes mellitus was estimated at 339,035. This represented a loss of 757,096 discounted years of productive life among persons younger than 65 years (> billion US dollars). Permanent disability caused a loss of 12,699,087 years and over 50 billion US dollars, and temporary disability caused a loss of 136,701 years in the working population and over 763 million US dollars. Costs associated with insulin and oral medications were 4720 million US dollars, hospitalizations 1012 million US dollars, consultations 2508 million US dollars and care for complications 2,480 million US dollars. The total annual cost associated with diabetes was estimated as 65,216 million US dollars (direct 10,721 US dollars; indirect 54,496 US dollars). CONCLUSION: Despite limitations of the data, diabetes imposes a high economic burden to individuals and society in all countries and to Latin American and the Caribbean as whole. PMID:12640472

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in 16 European cities.

PubMed

Borrell, Carme; Marí-Dell'olmo, Marc; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Burström, B O; Domínguez-Berjón, Felicitas; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Dzúrová, Dagmar; Gandarillas, Ana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Kovacs, Katalin; Marinacci, Chiara; Martikainen, Pekka; Pikhart, Hynek; Corman, Diana; Rosicova, Katarina; Saez, Marc; Santana, Paula; Tarkiainen, Lasse; Puigpinós, Rosa; Morrison, Joana; Pasarín, M Isabel; Díez, Èlia

2014-05-01

To explore inequalities in total mortality between small areas of 16 European cities for men and women, as well as to analyse the relationship between these geographical inequalities and their socioeconomic indicators. A cross-sectional ecological design was used to analyse small areas in 16 European cities (26,229,104 inhabitants). Most cities had mortality data for a period between 2000 and 2008 and population size data for the same period. Socioeconomic indicators included an index of socioeconomic deprivation, unemployment, and educational level. We estimated standardised mortality ratios and controlled for their variability using Bayesian models. We estimated relative risk of mortality and excess number of deaths according to socioeconomic indicators. We observed a consistent pattern of inequality in mortality in almost all cities, with mortality increasing in parallel with socioeconomic deprivation. Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were more pronounced for men than women, and relative inequalities were greater in Eastern and Northern European cities, and lower in some Western (men) and Southern (women) European cities. The pattern of excess number of deaths was slightly different, with greater inequality in some Western and Northern European cities and also in Budapest, and lower among women in Madrid and Barcelona. In this study, we report a consistent pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in 16 European cities. Future studies should further explore specific causes of death, in order to determine whether the general pattern observed is consistent for each cause of death.

Mortality associated with bilirubin levels in insurance applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2009-01-01

Determine the relationship between bilirubin levels with and without other liver function test (LFT) elevations and relative mortality in life insurance applicants. By use of the Social Security Death Master File mortality was determined in 1,905,664 insurance applicants for whom blood samples were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. There were 50,174 deaths observed in this study population. Results were stratified by 3 age/sex groups: females, age <60; males, age <60; and all, age 60+. The median follow-up was 12 years. Relative mortality increased as bilirubin decreased below bilirubin levels seen for the middle 50% of the population. The known association of smoking with lower bilirubin values explained only part of the additional elevated risk at low bilirubin levels. In the absence of other LFT elevations, relative mortality remained unchanged as bilirubin increased beyond levels seen for the middle 50% of the population. When a bilirubin elevation was combined with other LFT elevations, mortality further increased only at the highest elevations of other LFTs, seen only in <2.5% of applicants. Isolated elevations of bilirubin in this healthy screening population were not associated with excess mortality but values below the midpoint were. Other investigations have suggested a cardiovascular cause may underlie the excess mortality associated with low bilirubin. In association with other LFT elevations, bilirubin elevation further increases the mortality risk only at the highest elevations of other LFTs.

Mortality After Total Knee and Total Hip Arthroplasty in a Large Integrated Health Care System.

PubMed

Inacio, Maria C S; Dillon, Mark T; Miric, Alex; Navarro, Ronald A; Paxton, Elizabeth W

2017-01-01

The number of excess deaths associated with elective total joint arthroplasty in the US is not well understood. To evaluate one-year postoperative mortality among patients with elective primary and revision arthroplasty procedures of the hip and knee. A retrospective analysis was conducted of hip and knee arthroplasties performed in 2010. Procedure type, procedure volume, patient age and sex, and mortality were obtained from an institutional total joint replacement registry. An integrated health care system population was the sampling frame for the study subjects and was the reference group for the study. Standardized 1-year mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 10,163 primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs), 4963 primary total hip arthroplasties (THAs), 606 revision TKAs, and 496 revision THAs were evaluated. Patients undergoing primary THA (SMR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.4-0.7) and TKA (SMR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.3-0.5) had lower odds of mortality than expected. Patients with revision TKA had higher-than-expected mortality odds (SMR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5), whereas patients with revision THA (SMR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.4-1.5) did not have higher-than-expected odds of mortality. Understanding excess mortality after joint surgery allows clinicians to evaluate current practices and to determine whether certain groups are at higher-than-expected mortality risk after surgery.

Mortality after radiotherapy for ringworm of the scalp

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron, E.; Modan, B.; Boice, J.D. Jr.

1988-04-01

The mortality experience of 10,834 children treated with x-rays for ringworm of the scalp between 1948 and 1960, 10,834 matched comparison subjects, and 5392 siblings was evaluated over an average follow-up period of 26 years. Mortality was ascertained by linking unique personal identification numbers of study subjects with the national death registry. Radiotherapy in childhood was associated with an increased risk of death due to tumors of the head and neck (relative risk (RR) = 3) and leukemia (RR = 2.3). No other causes of death were significantly elevated after irradiation. The excess of brain tumors (average intracranial dose =more » 150 rads) confirms that the central nervous system of the child is sensitive to the induction of cancers by radiation. The bone marrow dose averaged over the entire body was approximately 30 rad, and the estimated risk coefficient of 0.9 excess leukemias per million per year per rad is consistent with other studies of whole-body exposure. A significant excess of bone and soft tissue sarcomas (RR = 9) was also observed. The pattern of cancer risk over time was bimodal; an early peak due to excess leukemias occurred within a few years of exposure, whereas excesses of solid tumors were most apparent after about 15 years. Despite the excess of cancers among exposed persons, over 50% of the deaths in the entire study population were from external events, mainly accidents or events related to military service. An estimate of the total impact of radiogenic cancer after childhood irradiation will require additional years of observation since the population irradiated is just now entering the age ranges normally associated with high cancer risk.« less

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

The relationship between social stratification and all-cause mortality among children in the United States: 1968-1992.

PubMed

DiLiberti, J H

2000-01-01

US childhood poverty rates have increased for most of the past 2 decades. Although overall mortality among children has apparently fallen during this interval, these aggregate mortality rates may hide a disproportionate burden imposed on the least advantaged. This study assessed the impact of social stratification on long-term US childhood mortality rates and examined the temporal relationship between mortality attributable to social stratification and childhood poverty rates. Using US childhood mortality data obtained from the Compressed Mortality File (National Center for Health Statistics) and a county-level measure of social stratification (residential telephone availability), I evaluated the impact of social stratification on long-term trends (1968-1992) in age-adjusted mortality and compared the resulting attributable proportions to trends in childhood poverty rates. Between 1968 and 1987 the proportion of US childhood deaths attributable to social stratification decreased from.22 to.17. Subsequently, it increased to.24 in 1992, despite continuous declines in overall childhood mortality rates. These proportions correlated strongly with earlier childhood poverty rates, taking into account an apparent 9-year lag. Among black children comparable trends were not observed, although throughout this time period their mortality rates were far higher than among the rest of the population and declined more slowly. Despite declining childhood mortality rates between 1968 and 1992, children living in the least advantaged counties continued to die at higher rates than those living in the most advantaged counties. This differential worsened considerably after 1987, and by 1992 had a substantive impact on US life expectancy at birth, resulting in perhaps the most significant (in terms of years of life lost) reversal in the health of the US public in the 20th century.

Perinatal mortality attributable to complications of childbirth in Matlab, Bangladesh.

PubMed Central

Kusiako, T.; Ronsmans, C.; Van der Paal, L.

2000-01-01

Very few population-based studies of perinatal mortality in developing countries have examined the role of intrapartum risk factors. In the present study, the proportion of perinatal deaths that are attributable to complications during childbirth in Matlab, Bangladesh, was assessed using community-based data from a home-based programme led by professional midwives between 1987 and 1993. Complications during labour and delivery--such as prolonged or obstructed labour, abnormal fetal position, and hypertensive diseases of pregnancy--increased the risk of perinatal mortality fivefold and accounted for 30% of perinatal deaths. Premature labour, which occurred in 20% of pregnancies, accounted for 27% of perinatal mortality. Better care by qualified staff during delivery and improved care of newborns should substantially reduce perinatal mortality in this study population. PMID:10859856

Mortality of a cohort of workers in the styrene-butadiene polymer manufacturing industry (1943-1982).

PubMed Central

Matanoski, G M; Santos-Burgoa, C; Schwartz, L

1990-01-01

A cohort of 12,110 male workers employed 1 or more years in eight styrene-butadiene polymer (SBR) manufacturing plants in the United States and Canada has been followed for mortality over a 40-year period, 1943 to 1982. The all-cause mortality of these workers was low [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 0.81] compared to that of the general population. However, some specific sites of cancers had SMRs that exceeded 1.00. These sites were then examined by major work divisions. The sites of interest included leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in whites. The SMRs for cancers of the digestive tract were higher than expected, especially esophageal cancer in whites and stomach cancer in blacks. The SMR for arteriosclerotic heart disease in black workers was significantly higher than would be expected based on general population rates. Employees were assigned to a work area based on job longest held. The SMRs for specific diseases differed by work area. Production workers showed increased SMRs for hematologic neoplasms and maintenance workers, for digestive cancers. A significant excess SMR for arteriosclerotic heart disease occurred only in black maintenance workers, although excess mortality from this disease occurred in blacks regardless of where they worked the longest. A significant excess SMR for rheumatic heart disease was associated with work in the combined, all-other work areas. For many causes of death, there were significant deficits in the SMRs. PMID:2401250

Seasonal Influenza Infections and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Jennifer L.; Yang, Wan; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas D.; Shaman, Jeffrey; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Cardiovascular deaths and influenza epidemics peak during winter in temperate regions. OBJECTIVES To quantify the temporal association between population increases in seasonal influenza infections and mortality due to cardiovascular causes and to test if influenza incidence indicators are predictive of cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Time-series analysis of vital statistics records and emergency department visits in New York City, among cardiovascular deaths that occurred during influenza seasons between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012. The 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic period was excluded from temporal analyses. EXPOSURES Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, grouped by age (≥0 years and ≥65 years) and scaled by laboratory surveillance data for viral types and subtypes, in the previous 28 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Mortality due to cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction. RESULTS Among adults 65 years and older, who accounted for 83.0% (73 363 deaths) of nonpandemic cardiovascular mortality during influenza seasons, seasonal average influenza incidence was correlated year to year with excess cardiovascular mortality (Pearson correlation coefficients ≥0.75, P≤.05 for 4 different influenza indicators). In daily time-series analyses using 4 different influenza metrics, interquartile range increases in influenza incidence during the previous 21 days were associated with an increase between 2.3% (95% CI, 0.7%–3.9%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 3.7%–8.9%) for cardiovascular disease mortality and between 2.4% (95% CI, 1.1%–3.6%) and 6.9% (95% CI, 4.0%–9.9%) for ischemic heart disease mortality among adults 65 years and older. The associations were most acute and strongest for myocardial infarction mortality, with each interquartile range increase in influenza incidence during the previous 14 days associated with mortality increases between 5.8% (95% CI, 2.5%–9.1%) and 13.1% (95% CI, 5.3%–20.9%). Out-of-sample prediction of cardiovascular mortality among adults 65 years and older during the 2009–2010 influenza season yielded average estimates with 94.0% accuracy using 4 different influenza metrics. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness were associated with and predictive of cardiovascular disease mortality. Retrospective estimation of influenza-attributable cardiovascular mortality burden combined with accurate and reliable influenza forecasts could predict the timing and burden of seasonal increases in cardiovascular mortality. PMID:27438105

Mesoamerican nephropathy: geographical distribution and time trends of chronic kidney disease mortality between 1970 and 2012 in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Wesseling, Catharina; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Crowe, Jennifer; Rittner, Ralf; Sanati, Negin A; Hogstedt, Christer; Jakobsson, Kristina

2015-10-01

Mesoamerican nephropathy is an epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) unrelated to traditional causes, mostly observed in sugarcane workers. We analysed CKD mortality in Costa Rica to explore when and where the epidemic emerged, sex and age patterns, and relationship with altitude, climate and sugarcane production. SMRs for CKD deaths (1970-2012) among population aged ≥20 were computed for 7 provinces and 81 counties over 4 time periods. Time trends were assessed with age-standardised mortality rates. We qualitatively examined relations between mortality and data on altitude, climate and sugarcane production. During 1970-2012, age-adjusted mortality rates in the Guanacaste province increased among men from 4.4 to 38.5 per 100,000 vs. 3.6-8.4 in the rest of Costa Rica, and among women from 2.3 to 10.7 per 100,000 vs. 2.6-5.0 in the rest of Costa Rica. A significant moderate excess mortality was observed among men in Guanacaste already in the mid-1970s, steeply increasing thereafter; a similar female excess mortality appeared a decade later, remaining stable. Male age-specific rates were high in Guanacaste for age categories ≥30, and since the late 1990s also for age range 20-29. The male spatiotemporal patterns roughly followed sugarcane expansion in hot, dry lowlands with manual harvesting. Excess CKD mortality occurs primarily in Guanacaste lowlands and was already present 4 decades ago. The increasing rates among Guanacaste men in hot, dry lowland counties with sugarcane are consistent with an occupational component. Stable moderate increases among women, and among men in counties without sugarcane, suggest coexisting environmental risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Mortality Associated with Neurofibromatosis 1: A Cohort Study of 1895 Patients in 1980-2006 in France

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1), a common autosomal dominant disorder, was shown in one study to be associated with a 15-year decrease in life expectancy. However, data on mortality in NF1 are limited. Our aim was to evaluate mortality in a large retrospective cohort of NF1 patients seen in France between 1980 and 2006. Methods Consecutive NF1 patients referred to the National French Referral Center for Neurofibromatoses were included. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated as the ratio of observed over expected numbers of deaths. We studied factors associated with death and causes of death. Results Between 1980 and 2006, 1895 NF1 patients were seen. Median follow-up was 6.8 years (range, 0.4-20.6). Vital status was available for 1226 (65%) patients, of whom 1159 (94.5%) survived and 67 (5.5%) died. Overall mortality was significantly increased in the NF1 cohort (SMR, 2.02; CI, 1.6-2.6; P < 10-4). The excess mortality occurred among patients aged 10 to 20 years (SMR, 5.2; CI, 2.6-9.3; P < 10-4) and 20 to 40 years (SMR, 4.1; 2.8-5.8; P < 10-4). Significant excess mortality was found in both males and females. In the 10-20 year age group, females had a significant increase in mortality compared to males (SMR, 12.6; CI, 5.7-23.9; and SMR, 1.8; CI, 0.2-6.4; respectively). The cause of death was available for 58 (86.6%) patients; malignant nerve sheath tumor was the main cause of death (60%). Conclusions We found significantly increased SMRs indicating excess mortality in NF1 patients compared to the general population. The definitive diagnosis of NF1 in all patients is a strength of our study, and the high rate of death related to malignant transformation is consistent with previous work. The retrospective design and hospital-based recruitment are limitations of our study. Mortality was significantly increased in NF1 patients aged 10 to 40 years and tended to be higher in females than in males. PMID:21542925

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Differential female mortality and health care in South Asia.

PubMed

Harriss, B

1989-04-01

This report examines differential female mortality in South Asia--India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Under conditions of mortality decline and an aggregate trend toward convergence of life expectancy, disequilibria which are comparatively unusual, persist. The converging life expectancies are a product of changes unique to each sex. Female mortality gains after the reproductive period conceal excess female mortality from the post-neonatal period to 5 years and in most regions of South Asia during the reproductive years as well. These imbalances appear to be most exaggerated on the upper Gangetic plain and among communities such as the Jats and Rajputs. The most marked imbalances do not bear a consistent relationship to economic conditions. They may, however, be declining over time. In certain regions of India, most notably in the peripheral south, discrimination against women is not seen in demographic data and has not been for several decades. Male life expectancy is being affected by only slow improvement in male mortality from age 35. Major social changes are accompanying these changes in gender differences in vital statistics, including changes in the technology of agricultural production, falling female participation rates, the education of girls, the increasing practice of dowry, and fertility decision making changes. It is not clear whether child mortality or maternal mortality is the key to the political economy of Indian demography, whether maldistribution of food or health care is the prime determinant of excess female child mortality, whether excess female mortality is the result of being neglect or conscious selection, whether regional contrasts result from differences in the religious roles of sons between north and south India, whether the female sex is culturally inferior and the male sex superior, whether food scarcity is more important than food availability in the determination of sex bias, whether poverty results in greater discrimination, whether class position determines reproductive strategy, whether major contrasts in demographic regime exist between north and south India, or whether material conditions or cultural practices determine demographic regimes. The workshop papers contributed data for the decision process, advocacy for the agenda, and details on the results of implementation, and the realities of access.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Prison tobacco control policies and deaths from smoking in United States prisons: population based retrospective analysis

PubMed Central

Carson, E Ann; Krueger, Patrick M; Mueller, Shane R; Steiner, John F; Sabol, William J

2014-01-01

Objective To determine the mortality attributable to smoking and years of potential life lost from smoking among people in prison and whether bans on smoking in prison are associated with reductions in smoking related deaths. Design Analysis of cross sectional survey data with the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system; population based time series analysis. Setting All state prisons in the United States. Main outcome measures Prevalence of smoking from cross sectional survey of inmates in state correctional facilities. Data on state prison tobacco policies from web based searches of state policies and legislation. Deaths and causes of death in US state prisons from the deaths in custody reporting program of the Bureau of Justice Statistics for 2001-11. Smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost was assessed from the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multivariate Poisson models quantified the association between bans and smoking related cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary deaths. Results The most common causes of deaths related to smoking among people in prison were lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, other heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic airways obstruction. The age adjusted smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost rates were 360 and 5149 per 100 000, respectively; these figures are higher than rates in the general US population (248 and 3501, respectively). The number of states with any smoking ban increased from 25 in 2001 to 48 by 2011. In prisons the mortality rate from smoking related causes was lower during years with a ban than during years without a ban (110.4/100 000 v 128.9/100 000). Prisons that implemented smoking bans had a 9% reduction (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.95) in smoking related deaths. Bans in place for longer than nine years were associated with reductions in cancer mortality (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.90). Conclusions Smoking contributes to substantial mortality in prison, and prison tobacco control policies are associated with reduced mortality. These findings suggest that smoking bans have health benefits for people in prison, despite the limits they impose on individual autonomy and the risks of relapse after release. PMID:25097186

Mortality risks associated with emergency admissions during weekends and public holidays: an analysis of electronic health records.

PubMed

Walker, A Sarah; Mason, Amy; Quan, T Phuong; Fawcett, Nicola J; Watkinson, Peter; Llewelyn, Martin; Stoesser, Nicole; Finney, John; Davies, Jim; Wyllie, David H; Crook, Derrick W; Peto, Tim E A

2017-07-01

Weekend hospital admission is associated with increased mortality, but the contributions of varying illness severity and admission time to this weekend effect remain unexplored. We analysed unselected emergency admissions to four Oxford University National Health Service hospitals in the UK from Jan 1, 2006, to Dec 31, 2014. The primary outcome was death within 30 days of admission (in or out of hospital), analysed using Cox models measuring time from admission. The primary exposure was day of the week of admission. We adjusted for multiple confounders including demographics, comorbidities, and admission characteristics, incorporating non-linearity and interactions. Models then considered the effect of adjusting for 15 common haematology and biochemistry test results or proxies for hospital workload. 257 596 individuals underwent 503 938 emergency admissions. 18 313 (4·7%) patients admitted as weekday energency admissions and 6070 (5·1%) patients admitted as weekend emergency admissions died within 30 days (p<0·0001). 9347 individuals underwent 9707 emergency admissions on public holidays. 559 (5·8%) died within 30 days (p<0·0001 vs weekday). 15 routine haematology and biochemistry test results were highly prognostic for mortality. In 271 465 (53·9%) admissions with complete data, adjustment for test results explained 33% (95% CI 21 to 70) of the excess mortality associated with emergency admission on Saturdays compared with Wednesdays, 52% (lower 95% CI 34) on Sundays, and 87% (lower 95% CI 45) on public holidays after adjustment for standard patient characteristics. Excess mortality was predominantly restricted to admissions between 1100 h and 1500 h (p interaction =0·04). No hospital workload measure was independently associated with mortality (all p values >0·06). Adjustment for routine test results substantially reduced excess mortality associated with emergency admission at weekends and public holidays. Adjustment for patient-level factors not available in our study might further reduce the residual excess mortality, particularly as this clustered around midday at weekends. Hospital workload was not associated with mortality. Together, these findings suggest that the weekend effect arises from patient-level differences at admission rather than reduced hospital staffing or services. NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cooking Coal Use and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Prospective Cohort Study of Women in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Kim, Christopher; Seow, Wei Jie; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Bassig, Bryan A.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Chen, Bingshu E.; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Hosgood, H. Dean; Ji, Bu-Tian; Hu, Wei; Wen, Cuiju; Chow, Wong-Ho; Cai, Qiuyin; Yang, Gong; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Lan, Qing

2016-01-01

Background: Nearly 4.3 million deaths worldwide were attributable to exposure to household air pollution in 2012. However, household coal use remains widespread. Objectives: We investigated the association of cooking coal and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort of primarily never-smoking women in Shanghai, China. Methods: A cohort of 74,941 women were followed from 1996 through 2009 with annual linkage to the Shanghai vital statistics database. Cause-specific mortality was identified through 2009. Use of household coal for cooking was assessed through a residential history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the risk of mortality associated with household coal use. Results: In this cohort, 63% of the women ever used coal (n = 46,287). Compared with never coal use, ever use of coal was associated with mortality from all causes [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.21], cancer (HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.27), and ischemic heart disease (overall HR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.27; HR for myocardial infarction specifically = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.79). The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with increasing duration of coal use, compared with the risk in never users. The association between coal use and ischemic heart disease mortality diminished with increasing years since cessation of coal use. Conclusions: Evidence from this study suggests that past use of coal among women in Shanghai is associated with excess all-cause mortality, and from cardiovascular diseases in particular. The decreasing association with cardiovascular mortality as the time since last use of coal increased emphasizes the importance of reducing use of household coal where use is still widespread. Citation: Kim C, Seow WJ, Shu XO, Bassig BA, Rothman N, Chen BE, Xiang YB, Hosgood HD III, Ji BT, Hu W, Wen C, Chow WH, Cai Q, Yang G, Gao YT, Zheng W, Lan Q. 2016. Cooking coal use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort study of women in Shanghai, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1384–1389; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP236 PMID:27091488

Influence of Terrain and Land Cover on the Isotopic Composition of Seasonal Snowpack in Rocky Mountain Headwater Catchments Affected by Bark Beetle Induced Tree Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kipnis, E. L.; Murphy, M.; Klatt, A. L.; Miller, S. N.; Williams, D. G.

2015-12-01

Session H103: The Hydrology-Vegetation-Climate Nexus: Identifying Process Interactions and Environmental Shifts in Mountain Catchments Influence of Terrain and Land Cover on the Isotopic Composition of Seasonal Snowpack in Rocky Mountain Headwater Catchments Affected by Bark Beetle Induced Tree Mortality Evan L Kipnis, Melanie A Murphey, Alan Klatt, Scott N Miller, David G Williams Snowpack accumulation and ablation remain difficult to estimate in forested headwater catchments. How physical terrain and forest cover separately and interactively influence spatial patterns of snow accumulation and ablation largely shapes the hydrologic response to land cover disturbances. Analysis of water isotopes in snowpack provides a powerful tool for examining integrated effects of water vapor exchange, selective redistribution, and melt. Snow water equivalence (SWE), δ2H, δ18O and deuterium excess (D-excess) of snowpack were examined throughout winter 2013-2014 across two headwater catchments impacted by bark beetle induced tree mortality. A USGS 10m DEM and a derived land cover product from 1m NAIP imagery were used to examine the effects of terrain features (e.g., elevation, slope, aspect) and canopy disturbance (e.g., live, bark-beetle killed) as predictors of D-excess, an expression of kinetic isotope effects, in snowpack. A weighting of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values from multiple spatially lagged regression models describing D-excess variation for peak snowpack revealed strong effects of elevation and canopy mortality, and weaker, but significant effects of aspect and slope. Snowpack D-excess was lower in beetle-killed canopy patches compared to live green canopy patches, and at lower compared to high elevation locations, suggesting that integrated isotopic effects of vapor exchange, vertical advection of melted snow, and selective accumulation and redistribution varied systematically across the two catchments. The observed patterns illustrate the potential for using D-excess to identify origins and timing of snowmelt runoff in streams and assessing the relative magnitude of different accumulation and ablation processes in snowpack evolution.

Tree regeneration in black ash (Fraxinus nigra) stands exhibiting crown dieback in Minnesota

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Michael E. Ostry; Robert C. Venette; Ebrahim. Abdela

2012-01-01

Crown dieback and mortality of black ash (Fraxinus nigra) has been noted across the range of the species in North America for several decades. Causes of dieback and mortality are not definitive, but may be related to spring drought or excessive moisture. Where black ash is the dominant tree species in the forest, continued dieback and mortality may...

All-cause and cause-specific mortality of social assistance recipients in Norway: a register-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Naper, Sille Ohrem

2009-11-01

To investigate the mortality among social assistance recipients, who are among the most marginalized people in Norway. Cause-specific mortality was analysed in an attempt to explain the excess mortality. Previous research has suggested that social disadvantage leads to higher mortality from all causes, whereas others have found substantial variation when studying separate causes. The impact of the various causes will influence policy recommendations. Data were compiled through linking between Norwegian administrative records. The entire population born between 1935 and 1974 (2,297,621 people) was followed with respect to social assistance and death from 1993 to 2003. Cause-specific, age-standardized mortality rates for social assistance recipients and the rest of the population were calculated, and both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio) rates were measured. The rate ratio for total mortality was 3.1 for men and 2.5 for women for the comparison between social assistance recipients and the general population. The mortality among social assistance recipients was higher for all causes, but the magnitude differed considerably, depending on the cause. The rate ratio for men ranged from 1.2 for non-smoking-related cancer to 18.8 for alcohol- and drug-related causes. Alcohol-and drug-related and violent causes together contributed to half of the excess mortality for men and one-third for women. The mortality of this socially disadvantaged group was considerably higher than that of the general population, and this difference reflected mainly drug-related causes.

Spatial variability of excess mortality during prolonged dust events in a high-density city: a time-stratified spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Wong, Man Sing; Ho, Hung Chak; Yang, Lin; Shi, Wenzhong; Yang, Jinxin; Chan, Ta-Chien

2017-07-24

Dust events have long been recognized to be associated with a higher mortality risk. However, no study has investigated how prolonged dust events affect the spatial variability of mortality across districts in a downwind city. In this study, we applied a spatial regression approach to estimate the district-level mortality during two extreme dust events in Hong Kong. We compared spatial and non-spatial models to evaluate the ability of each regression to estimate mortality. We also compared prolonged dust events with non-dust events to determine the influences of community factors on mortality across the city. The density of a built environment (estimated by the sky view factor) had positive association with excess mortality in each district, while socioeconomic deprivation contributed by lower income and lower education induced higher mortality impact in each territory planning unit during a prolonged dust event. Based on the model comparison, spatial error modelling with the 1st order of queen contiguity consistently outperformed other models. The high-risk areas with higher increase in mortality were located in an urban high-density environment with higher socioeconomic deprivation. Our model design shows the ability to predict spatial variability of mortality risk during an extreme weather event that is not able to be estimated based on traditional time-series analysis or ecological studies. Our spatial protocol can be used for public health surveillance, sustainable planning and disaster preparation when relevant data are available.

Radiation Exposure and Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer in Early NASA Astronauts.

PubMed

Elgart, S Robin; Little, Mark P; Chappell, Lori J; Milder, Caitlin M; Shavers, Mark R; Huff, Janice L; Patel, Zarana S

2018-05-31

Understanding space radiation health effects is critical due to potential increased morbidity and mortality following spaceflight. We evaluated whether there is evidence for excess cardiovascular disease or cancer mortality in early NASA astronauts and if a correlation exists between space radiation exposure and mortality. Astronauts selected from 1959-1969 were included and followed until death or February 2017, with 39 of 73 individuals still alive at that time. Calculated standardized mortality rates for tested outcomes were significantly below U.S. white male population rates, including all-cardiovascular disease (n = 7, SMR = 33; 95% CI, 14-65) and all-cancer (n = 7, SMR = 43; 95% CI, 18-83), as anticipated in a healthy worker population. Space radiation doses for cohort members ranged from 0-78 mGy. No significant associations between space radiation dose and mortality were found using logistic regression with an internal reference group, adjusting for medical radiation. Statistical power of the logistic regression was <6%, remaining <12% even when expected risk level or observed deaths were assumed to be 10 times higher than currently reported. While no excess radiation-associated cardiovascular or cancer mortality risk was observed, findings must be tempered by the statistical limitations of this cohort; notwithstanding, this small unique cohort provides a foundation for assessment of astronaut health.

Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

PubMed Central

Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury. Methods We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages. Findings For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively. Conclusion Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury. PMID:26240461

Lamb and kid mortality in village flocks in the coastal savanna zone of Ghana.

PubMed

Turkson, P K

2003-12-01

A cohort study was designed to observe and follow up mortality in lambs and kids in 88 flocks of sheep and goats under the traditional production system in five villages within the coastal savanna zone of Ghana over a 2-year period. The overall mortality rates for kids and lambs were 30.8% and 33.5%, respectively. Significantly higher proportions of kids (80.2%) and lambs (75.6%) up to 3 months of age died compared to kids and lambs from 4 to 12 months of age. The differences in mortality rates, either between male and female kids and lambs or between single-born and multiple-birth kids and lambs, were not significant. The odds ratio (OR) and relative risks (RR) for lambs and kids, on the basis of sex and birth types, were not significant; neither were the values obtained for attributable risk, attributable fraction, population attributable risk and population attributable fraction. The overall mortality rate on the basis of species of animal was not significant. At the village level, significant differences in the proportions of mortality on the basis of sex were seen in two villages. At Akotokyir, more male lambs (54.2%) died compared to females (27.6%), while at Apewosika more female lambs (42.2%) died compared to males (16.7%). The only significant difference in mortality proportions on the basis of birth type at the village level was seen at Apewosika, where more single-born kids died (52.8%) compared to kids born with sibling(s) (28.4%). The significant ORs for mortalities were 3.10 for male lambs at Akotokyir, 3.35 for female lambs at Apewosika and 2.82 for single-born kids at Apewosika. The corresponding RRs were equally significant. On the basis of species, significantly more lambs died at Akotokyir (44.2%) and Kwesimprah (44.7%) compared to kids. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Parathyroid Gland Function in Primary Aldosteronism.

PubMed

Asbach, E; Bekeran, M; Reincke, M

2015-12-01

Primary aldosteronism (PA) is the most frequent cause of secondary arterial hypertension. Beyond its effects on intravascular volume and blood pressure, PA causes metabolic alterations and a higher cardiovascular morbidity, which is reduced by PA-directed therapy. Experimental studies demonstrated that mineralocorticoid excess may also influence mineral homeostasis. A role in cardiovascular disease has also been attributed to parathyroid hormone (PTH). Increasing evidence supports a bidirectional interaction between aldosterone and PTH.Primary hyperparathyroidism is associated with arterial hypertension and an increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, which might be associated to higher aldosterone values; parathyreoidectomy results in lowered aldosterone and blood pressure levels. PA leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism, which is reversible by PA-directed therapy. A lower bone mineral density and a higher fracture rate were also shown to be reversible by PA-directed therapy. There is a suspicion of a bidirectional interaction between aldosterone and PTH, which might lead to a higher cardiovascular risk. There are more and more reports about coincident PA and primary hyperparathyroidism. From a pathophysiologic point of view this constellation is best characterized as tertiary hyperparathyroidism. Future aspects should further clarify the extent of these endocrine interactions and analyze the influence of this interplay on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and bone health. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Retrospective cohort mortality study of workers at an aircraft maintenance facility. I. Epidemiological results.

PubMed

Spirtas, R; Stewart, P A; Lee, J S; Marano, D E; Forbes, C D; Grauman, D J; Pettigrew, H M; Blair, A; Hoover, R N; Cohen, J L

1991-08-01

A retrospective cohort study of 14,457 workers at an aircraft maintenance facility was undertaken to evaluate mortality associated with exposures in their workplace. The purpose was to determine whether working with solvents, particularly trichloroethylene, posed any excess risk of mortality. The study group consisted of all civilian employees who worked for at least one year at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, between 1 January 1952 and 31 December 1956. Work histories were obtained from records at the National Personnel Records Centre, St. Louis, Missouri, and the cohort was followed up for ascertainment of vital state until 31 December 1982. Observed deaths among white people were compared with the expected number of deaths, based on the Utah white population, and adjusted for age, sex, and calendar period. Significant deficits occurred for mortality from all causes (SMR 92, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 90-95), all malignant neoplasms (SMR 90, 95% CI 83-97), ischaemic heart disease (SMR 93, 95% CI 88-98), non-malignant respiratory disease (SMR 87, 95% CI 76-98), and accidents (SMR 61, 95% CI 52-70). Mortality was raised for multiple myeloma (MM) in white women (SMR 236, 95% CI 87-514), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in white women (SMR 212, 95% CI 102-390), and cancer of the biliary passages and liver in white men dying after 1980 (SMR 358, 95% CI 116-836). Detailed analysis of the 6929 employees occupationally exposed to trichloroethylene, the most widely used solvent at the base during the 1950s and 1960s, did not show any significant or persuasive association between several measures of exposure to trichloroethylene and any excess of cancer. Women employed in departments in which fabric cleaning and parachute repair operations were performed had more deaths than expected from MM and NHL. The inconsistent mortality patterns by sex, multiple and overlapping exposures, and small numbers made it difficult to ascribe these excesses to any particular substance. Hypothesis generating results are presented by a variety of exposures for causes of death not showing excesses in the overall cohort.

Retrospective cohort mortality study of workers at an aircraft maintenance facility. I. Epidemiological results.

PubMed Central

Spirtas, R; Stewart, P A; Lee, J S; Marano, D E; Forbes, C D; Grauman, D J; Pettigrew, H M; Blair, A; Hoover, R N; Cohen, J L

1991-01-01

A retrospective cohort study of 14,457 workers at an aircraft maintenance facility was undertaken to evaluate mortality associated with exposures in their workplace. The purpose was to determine whether working with solvents, particularly trichloroethylene, posed any excess risk of mortality. The study group consisted of all civilian employees who worked for at least one year at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, between 1 January 1952 and 31 December 1956. Work histories were obtained from records at the National Personnel Records Centre, St. Louis, Missouri, and the cohort was followed up for ascertainment of vital state until 31 December 1982. Observed deaths among white people were compared with the expected number of deaths, based on the Utah white population, and adjusted for age, sex, and calendar period. Significant deficits occurred for mortality from all causes (SMR 92, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 90-95), all malignant neoplasms (SMR 90, 95% CI 83-97), ischaemic heart disease (SMR 93, 95% CI 88-98), non-malignant respiratory disease (SMR 87, 95% CI 76-98), and accidents (SMR 61, 95% CI 52-70). Mortality was raised for multiple myeloma (MM) in white women (SMR 236, 95% CI 87-514), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in white women (SMR 212, 95% CI 102-390), and cancer of the biliary passages and liver in white men dying after 1980 (SMR 358, 95% CI 116-836). Detailed analysis of the 6929 employees occupationally exposed to trichloroethylene, the most widely used solvent at the base during the 1950s and 1960s, did not show any significant or persuasive association between several measures of exposure to trichloroethylene and any excess of cancer. Women employed in departments in which fabric cleaning and parachute repair operations were performed had more deaths than expected from MM and NHL. The inconsistent mortality patterns by sex, multiple and overlapping exposures, and small numbers made it difficult to ascribe these excesses to any particular substance. Hypothesis generating results are presented by a variety of exposures for causes of death not showing excesses in the overall cohort. PMID:1878308

Updated epidemiological study of workers at two California petroleum refineries, 1950–95

PubMed Central

Satin, K; Bailey, W; Newton, K; Ross, A; Wong, O

2002-01-01

Objectives: To further assess the potential role of occupational exposures on mortality, a second update of a cohort study of workers at two petroleum refineries in California was undertaken. Methods: Mortality analyses were based on standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using the general population of California as a reference. Additional analyses of lymphatic and haematopoietic cancer deaths and diseases related to asbestos were undertaken. Results: The update consisted of 18 512 employees, who contributed 456 425 person-years of observation between 1950 and 1995. Both overall mortality and total cancer mortality were significantly lower than expected, as were several site specific cancers and non-malignant diseases. In particular, no significant increases were reported for leukaemia cell types or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Mortality excess from multiple myeloma was marginally significant. The excess was confined to employees enrolled before 1949. Furthermore, there was no significant upward trend based on duration of employment, which argues against a causal interpretation relative to employment or exposures at the refineries. No increase was found for diseases related to asbestos: pulmonary fibrosis; lung cancer; or malignant mesothelioma. There was no significant increase in mortality from any other cancers or non-malignant diseases. Conclusion: This second update provides additional reassurance that employment at these two refineries is not associated with increased risk of mortality. PMID:11934952

Unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in the OECD, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watkins, Johnathan; Taylor, Abigail; Williams, Callum; Ali, Raghib; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat

2015-01-01

The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment in many countries. Insights into the impact of unemployment on specific health conditions remain limited. We determined the association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We used multivariate regression analysis to assess the association between changes in unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in OECD member states between 1990 and 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and population size were controlled for and lag analyses conducted. Several robustness checks were also performed. Time trend analyses were used to predict the number of excess deaths from prostate cancer following the 2008 global recession. Between 1990 and 2009, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with an increase in prostate cancer mortality. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in mortality years after unemployment rises. The association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality remained significant in robustness checks with 46 controls. Eight of the 21 OECD countries for which a time trend analysis was conducted, exhibited an estimated excess of prostate cancer deaths in at least one of 2008, 2009, or 2010, based on 2000–2007 trends. Rises in unemployment are associated with significant increases in prostate cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment may help to minimise prostate cancer mortality during times of economic hardship. PMID:26045715

Unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in the OECD, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Watkins, Johnathan; Taylor, Abigail; Williams, Callum; Ali, Raghib; Zeltner, Thomas; Atun, Rifat

2015-01-01

The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment in many countries. Insights into the impact of unemployment on specific health conditions remain limited. We determined the association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We used multivariate regression analysis to assess the association between changes in unemployment and prostate cancer mortality in OECD member states between 1990 and 2009. Country-specific differences in healthcare infrastructure, population structure, and population size were controlled for and lag analyses conducted. Several robustness checks were also performed. Time trend analyses were used to predict the number of excess deaths from prostate cancer following the 2008 global recession. Between 1990 and 2009, a 1% rise in unemployment was associated with an increase in prostate cancer mortality. Lag analysis showed a continued increase in mortality years after unemployment rises. The association between unemployment and prostate cancer mortality remained significant in robustness checks with 46 controls. Eight of the 21 OECD countries for which a time trend analysis was conducted, exhibited an estimated excess of prostate cancer deaths in at least one of 2008, 2009, or 2010, based on 2000-2007 trends. Rises in unemployment are associated with significant increases in prostate cancer mortality. Initiatives that bolster employment may help to minimise prostate cancer mortality during times of economic hardship.

[Disability attributable to excess weight in Spain].

PubMed

Martín-Ramiro, José Javier; Alvarez-Martín, Elena; Gil-Prieto, Ruth

2014-08-19

To estimate the disability attributable to higher than optimal body mass index in the Spanish population in 2006. Excess body weight prevalence data were obtained from the 2006 National Health Survey (NHS), while the prevalence of associated morbidities was extracted from the 2006 NHS and from a national hospital data base. Population attributable fractions were applied and disability attributable was expressed as years life with disability (YLD). In 2006, in the Spanish population aged 35-79 years, 791.650 YLD were lost due to higher than optimal body mass index (46.7% in males and 53.3% in females). Overweight (body mass index 25-29.9) accounted for 45.7% of total YLD. Males YLD were higher than females under 60. The 35-39 quinquennial group showed a difference for males of 16.6% while in the 74-79 group the difference was 23.8% for women. Osteoarthritis and chronic back pain accounted for 60% of YLD while hypertensive disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus were responsible of 37%. Excess body weight is a health risk related to the development of various diseases with an important associated disability burden and social and economical cost. YLD analysis is a useful monitor tool for disease control interventions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Prevention of deaths from harmful drinking in the United States: the potential effects of tax increases and advertising bans on young drinkers.

PubMed

Hollingworth, William; Ebel, Beth E; McCarty, Carolyn A; Garrison, Michelle M; Christakis, Dimitri A; Rivara, Frederick P

2006-03-01

Harmful alcohol consumption is a leading cause of death in the United States. The majority of people who die from alcohol use begin drinking in their youth. In this study, we estimate the impact of interventions to reduce the prevalence of drinking among youth on subsequent drinking patterns and alcohol-attributable mortality. We first estimated the effect of public health interventions to decrease harmful drinking among youth from literature reviews and used life table methods to estimate alcohol-attributable years of life lost by age 80 years among the cohort of approximately 4 million U.S. residents aged 20 in the year 2000. Then, from national survey data on transitions in drinking habits by age, we modeled the impact of interventions on alcohol-attributable mortality. A tax increase and an advertising ban were the most effective interventions identified. In the absence of intervention, there would be 55,259 alcohol-attributable deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. A tax-based 17% increase in the price of alcohol of dollar 1 per six pack of beer could reduce deaths from harmful drinking by 1,490, equivalent to 31,130 discounted years of potential life saved or 3.3% of current alcohol-attributable mortality. A complete ban on alcohol advertising would reduce deaths from harmful drinking by 7,609 and result in a 16.4% decrease in alcohol-related life-years lost. A partial advertising ban would result in a 4% reduction in alcohol-related life-years lost. Interventions to prevent harmful drinking by youth can result in reductions in adult mortality. Among interventions shown to be successful in reducing youthful drinking prevalence, advertising bans appear to have the greatest potential for premature mortality reduction.

Health Impacts and Economic Costs of Air Pollution in the Metropolitan Area of Skopje.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Spadaro, Joseph V; Chapizanis, Dimitris; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Kochubovski, Mihail; Mudu, Pierpaolo

2018-03-29

Urban outdoor air pollution, especially particulate matter, remains a major environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Despite the documented high levels of pollution in the city, the published evidence on its health impacts is as yet scarce. we obtained, cleaned, and validated Particulate Matter (PM) concentration data from five air quality monitoring stations in the Skopje metropolitan area, applied relevant concentration-response functions, and evaluated health impacts against two theoretical policy scenarios. We then calculated the burden of disease attributable to PM and calculated the societal cost due to attributable mortality. In 2012, long-term exposure to PM 2.5 (49.2 μg/m³) caused an estimated 1199 premature deaths (CI95% 821-1519). The social cost of the predicted premature mortality in 2012 due to air pollution was estimated at between 570 and 1470 million euros. Moreover, PM 2.5 was also estimated to be responsible for 547 hospital admissions (CI95% 104-977) from cardiovascular diseases, and 937 admissions (CI95% 937-1869) for respiratory disease that year. Reducing PM 2.5 levels to the EU limit (25 μg/m³) could have averted an estimated 45% of PM-attributable mortality, while achieving the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (10 μg/m³) could have averted an estimated 77% of PM-attributable mortality. Both scenarios would also attain significant reductions in attributable respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Besides its health impacts in terms of increased premature mortality and hospitalizations, air pollution entails significant economic costs to the population of Skopje. Reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations could provide substantial health and economic gains to the city.

Glycemic Control, Renal Complications, and Current Smoking in Relation to Excess Risk of Mortality in Persons With Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Ahlén, Elsa; Pivodic, Aldina; Wedel, Hans; Dahlqvist, Sofia; Kosiborod, Mikhail; Lind, Marcus

2016-09-01

A substantial excess risk of mortality still exists in persons with type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the excess risk of mortality in persons with type 1 diabetes without renal complications who target goals for glycemic control and are nonsmokers. Furthermore, we evaluated risk factors of death due to hypoglycemia or ketoacidosis in young adults with type 1 diabetes. We evaluated a cohort based on 33 915 persons with type 1 diabetes and 169 249 randomly selected controls from the general population matched on age, sex, and county followed over a mean of 8.0 and 8.3 years, respectively. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality for persons with type 1 diabetes versus controls were estimated. The adjusted HRs for all-cause and CVD mortality for persons with type 1 diabetes without renal complications (normoalbuminuria and eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min) and HbA1c ≤ 6.9% (52 mmol/mol) compared to controls were 1.22 (95% CI 0.98-1.52) and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66-1.60), respectively. The HRs increased with higher updated mean HbA1c. For nonsmokers in this group, the HRs for all-cause and CVD mortality were somewhat lower: 1.11 (95% CI 0.87-1.42) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.53-1.48) at updated mean HbA1c ≤ 6.9% (52 mmol/mol). HRs for significant predictors for deaths due to hypoglycemia or ketoacidosis in persons < 50 years were male sex 2.40 (95% CI 1.27-4.52), smoking 2.86 (95% CI 1.57-5.22), lower educational level 3.01 (95% CI 1.26-7.22), albuminuria or advanced kidney disease 2.83 (95% CI 1.63-4.93), earlier hospital diagnosis of hypoglycemia or ketoacidosis 2.30 (95% CI 1.20-4.42), and earlier diagnosis of intoxication 2.53 (95% CI 1.06-6.04). If currently recommended HbA1c targets can be reached, renal complications and smoking avoided in persons with type 1 diabetes, the excess risk of mortality will likely converge substantially to that of the general population. © 2016 Diabetes Technology Society.

Growing season burns for control of hardwoods in longleaf pine stands

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1990-01-01

Summer fires in existing longleaf pine stands carry undue risk of pine mortality. One summer fire caused as much mortality among pines in the l- through 4-inch d.b.h. classes as two successive summer fires among hardwoods of the same size. Mortality among mature pines was also excessive. Hardwood top-kill following a spring fire seemed affected more by fire intensity...

Increased Respiratory Disease Mortality at a Microwave Popcorn Production Facility with Worker Risk of Bronchiolitis Obliterans

PubMed Central

Halldin, Cara N.; Suarthana, Eva; Fedan, Kathleen B.; Lo, Yi-Chun; Turabelidze, George; Kreiss, Kathleen

2013-01-01

Background Bronchiolitis obliterans, an irreversible lung disease, was first associated with inhalation of butter flavorings (diacetyl) in workers at a microwave popcorn company. Excess rates of lung-function abnormalities were related to cumulative diacetyl exposure. Because information on potential excess mortality would support development of permissible exposure limits for diacetyl, we investigated respiratory-associated mortality during 2000–2011 among current and former workers at this company who had exposure to flavorings and participated in cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2000–2003. Methods We ascertained workers' vital status through a Social Security Administration search. Causes of death were abstracted from death certificates. Because bronchiolitis obliterans is not coded in the International Classification of Disease 10th revision (ICD-10), we identified respiratory mortality decedents with ICD-10 codes J40–J44 which encompass bronchitis (J40), simple and mucopurulent chronic bronchitis (J41), unspecified chronic bronchitis (J42), emphysema (J43), and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (J44). We calculated expected number of deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine if workers exposed to diacetyl experienced greater respiratory mortality than expected. Results We identified 15 deaths among 511 workers. Based on U.S. population estimates, 17.39 deaths were expected among these workers (SMR = 0.86; CI:0.48-1.42). Causes of death were available for 14 decedents. Four deaths among production and flavor mixing workers were documented to have a multiple cause of ‘other COPD’ (J44), while 0.98 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths were expected (SMR = 4.10; CI:1.12–10.49). Three of the 4 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths occurred among former workers and workers employed before the company implemented interventions reducing diacetyl exposure in 2001. Conclusion Workers at the microwave popcorn company experienced normal rates of all-cause mortality but higher rates of COPD-associated mortality, especially workers employed before the company reduced diacetyl exposure. The demonstrated excess in COPD-associated mortality suggests continued efforts to lower flavoring exposure are prudent. PMID:23469109

Increased respiratory disease mortality at a microwave popcorn production facility with worker risk of bronchiolitis obliterans.

PubMed

Halldin, Cara N; Suarthana, Eva; Fedan, Kathleen B; Lo, Yi-Chun; Turabelidze, George; Kreiss, Kathleen

2013-01-01

Bronchiolitis obliterans, an irreversible lung disease, was first associated with inhalation of butter flavorings (diacetyl) in workers at a microwave popcorn company. Excess rates of lung-function abnormalities were related to cumulative diacetyl exposure. Because information on potential excess mortality would support development of permissible exposure limits for diacetyl, we investigated respiratory-associated mortality during 2000-2011 among current and former workers at this company who had exposure to flavorings and participated in cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2000-2003. We ascertained workers' vital status through a Social Security Administration search. Causes of death were abstracted from death certificates. Because bronchiolitis obliterans is not coded in the International Classification of Disease 10(th) revision (ICD-10), we identified respiratory mortality decedents with ICD-10 codes J40-J44 which encompass bronchitis (J40), simple and mucopurulent chronic bronchitis (J41), unspecified chronic bronchitis (J42), emphysema (J43), and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (J44). We calculated expected number of deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine if workers exposed to diacetyl experienced greater respiratory mortality than expected. We identified 15 deaths among 511 workers. Based on U.S. population estimates, 17.39 deaths were expected among these workers (SMR = 0.86; CI:0.48-1.42). Causes of death were available for 14 decedents. Four deaths among production and flavor mixing workers were documented to have a multiple cause of 'other COPD' (J44), while 0.98 'other COPD'-associated deaths were expected (SMR = 4.10; CI:1.12-10.49). Three of the 4 'other COPD'-associated deaths occurred among former workers and workers employed before the company implemented interventions reducing diacetyl exposure in 2001. Workers at the microwave popcorn company experienced normal rates of all-cause mortality but higher rates of COPD-associated mortality, especially workers employed before the company reduced diacetyl exposure. The demonstrated excess in COPD-associated mortality suggests continued efforts to lower flavoring exposure are prudent.

Mortality of workers at a nickel carbonyl refinery, 1958-2000.

PubMed

Sorahan, T; Williams, S P

2005-02-01

Excess risks of respiratory cancer have been shown in some groups of nickel exposed workers. It is clear, however, that not all forms of nickel exposure are implicated in these excess risks. To determine whether occupational exposures received in a modern nickel carbonyl refinery lead to increased risks of cancer, in particular nasal cancer and lung cancer. The mortality experienced by a cohort of 812 workers employed at a nickel refinery was investigated. Study subjects were all male workforce employees first employed in the period 1953-92 who had at least five years' employment with the company. Observed numbers of cause specific deaths were compared with expectations based on national mortality rates; SMRs were also calculated by period from commencing employment, year of commencing employment, and type of work. Overall, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were close to 100 for all causes (Obs 191, SMR 96, 95% CI 83 to 111), all neoplasms (Obs 63, SMR 104, 95% CI 80 to 133), non-malignant diseases of the respiratory system (Obs 18, SMR 97, 95% CI 57 to 153), and diseases of the circulatory system (Obs 85, SMR 94, 95% CI 75 to 116). There were no significantly increased SMRs for any site of cancer. There was a non-significant excess for lung cancer (Obs 28, Exp 20.17, SMR 139, 95% CI 92 to 201), and in subgroup analyses a significantly increased SMR of 231 (Obs 9) was found for those 142 workers with at least five years' employment in the feed handling and nickel extraction departments. In the total cohort there was a single death from nasal cancer (Exp 0.10). The non-significant excess of lung cancer deaths may well be a chance finding, but in light of previous studies some role for nickel exposures cannot be excluded.

Cancer and other causes of death among a cohort of dry cleaners.

PubMed Central

Blair, A; Stewart, P A; Tolbert, P E; Grauman, D; Moran, F X; Vaught, J; Rayner, J

1990-01-01

Mortality among 5365 members of a dry cleaning union in St. Louis, Missouri, was less than expected for all causes combined (SMR = 0.9) but slightly raised for cancer (SMR = 1.2). Among the cancers, statistically significant excesses occurred for oesophagus (SMR = 2.1) and cervix (SMR = 1.7) and non-significant excesses for larynx (SMR = 1.6), lung (SMR = 1.3), bladder (SMR = 1.7), thyroid (SMR = 3.3), lymphosarcoma and reticulosarcoma (SMR = 1.7), and Hodgkin's disease (SMR = 2.1). Mortality from emphysema was also significantly raised (SMR = 2.0). Eleven of the 13 deaths from oesophageal cancer occurred among black men. The risk of this cancer showed a significant association with estimated cumulative exposure to dry cleaning solvents (rising to 2.8-fold in the highest category) but not with level or duration of exposure. Mortality from kidney cancer was not excessive as reported in other studies. Excesses for emphysema and cancers of the larynx, lung, oesophagus, bladder, and cervix may be related to socioeconomic status, tobacco, or alcohol use. Although the number of deaths was small, the greatest risk for cancers of the lymphatic and haematopoietic system (fourfold) occurred among workers likely to have held jobs where exposures were the heaviest. Small numbers and limited information on exposure to specific substances complicates interpretation of this association but is unlikely to be due to confounding by tobacco use. It was not possible to identify workers exposed to specific dry cleaning solvents but mortality among those entering the union after 1960, when use of perchloroethylene was predominant, was similar to those entering before 1960. PMID:2328223

[Study on smoking-attributed mortality by using all causes of death surveillance system in Tianjin].

PubMed

Jiang, Guohong; Zhang, Hui; Li, Wei; Wang, Dezheng; Xu, Zhongliang; Song, Guide; Zhang, Ying; Shen, Chengfeng; Zheng, Wenlong; Xue, Xiaodan; Shen, Wenda

2016-03-01

To understand the smoking-attributed mortality by inclusion of smoking information into all causes of death surveillance. Since 2010, the information about smoking status, smoking history and the number of cigarettes smoked daily had been added in death surveillance system. The measures of training, supervision, check, sampling survey and telephone verifying were taken to increase death reporting rate and reduce data missing rate and underreporting rate. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for smoking-attributed mortality. During the study period (2010-2014), the annual death reporting rates ranged from 6.5‰ to 7.0‰. The reporting rates of smoking status, smoking history and the number of cigarettes smoked daily were 95.53%, 98.63% and 98.58%, respectively. Compared with the nonsmokers, the RR of males was 1.38 (1.33-1.43) for all causes of death and 3.07 (2.91-3.24) for lung cancer due to smoking, the RR of females was 1.46 (1.39-1.54) for all causes of death and 4.07 (3.81-4.35) for lung cancer due to smoking, respectively. The study of smoking attributed mortality can be developed with less investment by using the stable and effective all causes of death surveillance system in Tianjin.

Cancer mortality in a northern Italian cohort of rubber workers.

PubMed

Negri, E; Piolatto, G; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Kaldor, J; La Vecchia, C

1989-09-01

An analysis of the mortality of a cohort of 6629 workers employed from 1906 to 1981 in a rubber tyre factory in northern Italy (978 deaths and over 133,000 man-years at risk) showed that the all cause mortality ratio was slightly lower than expected (0.91). Overall cancer mortality was close to expected (275 v 259.4) but there were significant excess rates for two cancer sites: pleura (9 observed v 0.8 expected, which may be due to the use of fibre containing talc) and bladder (16 observed v 8.8 expected). Death rates were not raised for other sites previously associated with employment in the rubber industry, such as cancers of the lung and brain, leukaemias, or lymphomas. The substantially reduced relative risk of pleural cancer among workers first employed after 1940 (RR = 0.05 compared with before 1940) probably reflected improvements in working conditions over more recent periods. For cancer of the bladder, the relative risk was also lower for workers first engaged after 1940. Thus no appreciable risk for any disease was apparent for workers employed over the past four decades. Analysis for each of the 27 job categories showed a substantial excess for cancer of the pleura in the mechanical maintenance workers (4 observed v 0.17 expected); an excess of cancer of the lung (21 v 13.48) was also present in this job category.

Cancer mortality in a northern Italian cohort of rubber workers.

PubMed Central

Negri, E; Piolatto, G; Pira, E; Decarli, A; Kaldor, J; La Vecchia, C

1989-01-01

An analysis of the mortality of a cohort of 6629 workers employed from 1906 to 1981 in a rubber tyre factory in northern Italy (978 deaths and over 133,000 man-years at risk) showed that the all cause mortality ratio was slightly lower than expected (0.91). Overall cancer mortality was close to expected (275 v 259.4) but there were significant excess rates for two cancer sites: pleura (9 observed v 0.8 expected, which may be due to the use of fibre containing talc) and bladder (16 observed v 8.8 expected). Death rates were not raised for other sites previously associated with employment in the rubber industry, such as cancers of the lung and brain, leukaemias, or lymphomas. The substantially reduced relative risk of pleural cancer among workers first employed after 1940 (RR = 0.05 compared with before 1940) probably reflected improvements in working conditions over more recent periods. For cancer of the bladder, the relative risk was also lower for workers first engaged after 1940. Thus no appreciable risk for any disease was apparent for workers employed over the past four decades. Analysis for each of the 27 job categories showed a substantial excess for cancer of the pleura in the mechanical maintenance workers (4 observed v 0.17 expected); an excess of cancer of the lung (21 v 13.48) was also present in this job category. PMID:2789965

Health impact and monetary cost of exposure to particulate matter emitted from biomass burning in large cities.

PubMed

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis Α; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Kermenidou, Marianthi V

2015-08-15

The study deals with the assessment of health impact and the respective economic cost attributed to particulate matter (PM) emitted into the atmosphere from biomass burning for space heating, focusing on the differences between the warm and cold seasons in 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 in Thessaloniki (Greece). Health impact was assessed based on estimated exposure levels and the use of established WHO concentration-response functions (CRFs) for all-cause mortality, infant mortality, new chronic bronchitis cases, respiratory and cardiac hospital admissions. Monetary cost was based on the valuation of the willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), to avoid or compensate for the loss of welfare associated with illness. Results showed that long term mortality during the 2012-2013 winter increased by 200 excess deaths in a city of almost 900,000 inhabitants or 3540 years of life lost, corresponding to an economic cost of almost 200-250m€. New chronic bronchitis cases dominate morbidity estimates (490 additional new cases corresponding to a monetary cost of 30m€). Estimated health and monetary impacts are more severe during the cold season, despite its smaller duration (4 months). Considering that the increased ambient air concentrations (and the integral of outdoor/indoor exposure) are explained by shifting from oil to biomass for domestic heating purposes, several alternative scenarios were evaluated. Policy scenario analysis revealed that significant public health and monetary benefits (up to 2b€ in avoided mortality and 130m€ in avoided illness) might be obtained by limiting the biomass share in the domestic heat energy mix. Fiscal policy affecting fuels/technologies used for domestic heating needs to be reconsidered urgently, since the net tax loss from avoided oil taxation due to reduced consumption was further compounded by the public health cost of increased mid-term morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling determinants, impact, and space-time risk of age-specific mortality in rural South Africa: integrating methods to enhance policy relevance.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn

2013-01-24

There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space-time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined. To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space-time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation. Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992-2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space-time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed. Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space-time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty. A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space-time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region.

[Mortality study update of workers exposed to vinyl chloride in plants located in Ferrara and Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy)].

PubMed

Scarnato, Corrado; Rambaldi, Rossella; Mancini, Gianpiero; Olanda, Sandra; Spagnolo, Maria Rosa; Previati, Elisabetta; Parmeggiani, Valerio; Minisci, Salvatore; Comba, Pietro; Pirastu, Roberta

2017-01-01

to update the mortality study of subjects exposed to vinyl chloride in the phases of synthesis of the monomer and polymerization in the plants of Ferrara and Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy). both for the whole cohort and for the two plants, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), were calculated for different death causes, then stratified by duration and latency, periods of the beginning of work and cumulative exposure (ppm-years). the cohort includes 1,540 subjects (469 in Ferrara hired from 1953 to 1999; 1,071 in Ravenna hired from 1959 to 2000), with at least six months of work. by the end of the follow-up (31.12.2013), 348 deaths occurred. Overall observed mortality, contrasted to that expected based on Emilia-Romagna Region mortality rates, appeared to be lower than expected in the whole cohort (348 cases, SMR: 0.85; 95%CI 0.77-0.95) and in Ravenna (173 cases, SMR: 0.71; 95%CI 0.61-0.83). Mortality for all neoplasms was in excess in Ferrara (79 cases, SMR: 1.27; 95%CI 1.02-1.58), but lower than expected in Ravenna (83 cases, SMR: 0.80; 95%CI 0.64-0.99). An excess in mortality was observed in the whole cohort (16 cases, SMR: 1.74; 95%CI 1.07-2.85) and in Ferrara for liver cancer (7 cases, SMR: 2.12; 95%CI 1.02-4.46), and only in Ferrara for respiratory tract cancer (30 cases, SMR: 1.45; 95%CI 1.02-2.07) and larynx cancer (4 cases, SMR: 3.35; 95%CI 1.26-8.92). In the whole cohort, SMR for liver cancer was in excess since a cumulative exposure of 5,000 ppm-year and 12 cases belong to the job title of autoclave workers (12 cases, SMR 4.6; 95%CI 2.6-8.0), duration of work higher than 20 years (8 cases, SMR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2-4.9), and latency higher than 40 years (7 cases, SMR 2.5; 95%CI 1.2-5.2). The excess in mortality for lung cancer is statistically significant for and with cumulative exposure higher than 7,330 ppm-years (6 cases, SMR 3.2 95%CI 1.4-7.0). There are not excesses among subjects hired after 1971. the study findings confirm and expand the ones of previous studies. It was not possible to apply a best evidence approach to the study of liver cancer, and consequently it is not possible to distinguish between hepatic angiosarcoma and hepatocellular carcinoma. The evidence of a causal link between vinyl chloride exposure and liver cancer is anyhow confirmed. The causal link between vinyl chloride exposure and lung cancer must be further investigated.

Relationships between alumina and bauxite dust exposure and cancer, respiratory and circulatory disease.

PubMed

Friesen, M C; Fritschi, L; Del Monaco, A; Benke, G; Dennekamp, M; de Klerk, N; Hoving, J L; MacFarlane, E; Sim, M R

2009-09-01

To examine the associations between alumina and bauxite dust exposure and cancer incidence and circulatory and respiratory disease mortality among bauxite miners and alumina refinery workers. This cohort of 5770 males has previously been linked to national mortality and national and state cancer incidence registries (1983-2002). In this paper, Poisson regression was used to undertake internal comparisons within the cohort based on subgroups of cumulative exposure to inhalable bauxite and alumina dust. Exposure was estimated using job histories and historical air monitoring data. There was no association between ever bauxite exposure and any of the outcomes. There was a borderline significant association between ever alumina exposure and cerebrovascular disease mortality (10 deaths, RR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 13). There was some evidence of an exposure-response relationship between cumulative bauxite exposure and non-malignant respiratory disease mortality (seven deaths, trend p value: 0.01) and between cumulative alumina exposure and cerebrovascular disease mortality (trend p value: 0.04). These associations were based on very few cases and for non-malignant respiratory disease the deaths represented a heterogeneous mixture of causes. There was no evidence of an excess risk for any cancer type with bauxite or alumina exposure. These preliminary findings, based on very few cases, suggest that cumulative inhalable bauxite exposure may be associated with an excess risk of death from non-malignant respiratory disease and that cumulative inhalable alumina dust exposure may be associated with an excess risk of death from cerebrovascular disease. Neither exposure appears to increase the risk of incident cancers.

Underlying causes of the emerging nonmetropolitan mortality penalty.

PubMed

Cossman, Jeralynn S; James, Wesley L; Cosby, Arthur G; Cossman, Ronald E

2010-08-01

The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty results in an estimated 40 201 excessive US deaths per year, deaths that would not occur if nonmetropolitan and metropolitan residents died at the same rate. We explored the underlying causes of the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty by examining variation in cause of death. Declines in heart disease and cancer death rates in metropolitan areas drive the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. Future work should explore why the top causes of death are higher in nonmetropolitan areas than they are in metropolitan areas.

Underlying Causes of the Emerging Nonmetropolitan Mortality Penalty

PubMed Central

James, Wesley L.; Cosby, Arthur G.; Cossman, Ronald E.

2010-01-01

The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty results in an estimated 40 201 excessive US deaths per year, deaths that would not occur if nonmetropolitan and metropolitan residents died at the same rate. We explored the underlying causes of the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty by examining variation in cause of death. Declines in heart disease and cancer death rates in metropolitan areas drive the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. Future work should explore why the top causes of death are higher in nonmetropolitan areas than they are in metropolitan areas. PMID:20558803

Mortality of iron miners in Lorraine (France): relations between lung function and respiratory symptoms and subsequent mortality.

PubMed Central

Chau, N; Benamghar, L; Pham, Q T; Teculescu, D; Rebstock, E; Mur, J M

1993-01-01

An increased mortality from lung and stomach cancer was found in previous studies on Lorraine iron miners. A detailed analysis, however, was not possible due to the lack of data for survivors. In this study the cohort included 1178 workers selected at random from all the 5300 working miners aged between 35 and 55 at the start of the follow up period, which ranged from 1975 to 1985. Occupational exposures and tobacco consumption, lung function tests, and respiratory symptoms were assessed for each subject in 1975, 1980, and 1985. This study confirmed the excess of lung cancer (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 389, p < 0.001) and of stomach cancer (SMR = 273, p < 0.05). There was no excess of lung cancer in non-smokers and moderate smokers (< 20 pack-years) or the miners who worked only at the surface or underground for less than 20 years. A significant excess (SMR = 349, p < 0.001) was found in moderate smokers when they worked underground for between 20 and 29 years. Heavy smokers (over 30 pack-years) or subjects who worked underground for more than 30 years experienced a high risk: SMR = 478 (p < 0.001) for moderate smokers who worked underground for over 30 years; 588 (p < 0.001) for heavy smokers who worked underground for between 20 and 29 years; and 877 (p < 0.001) for heavy smokers who worked underground for over 30 years. This showed an interaction between smoking and occupational exposure. The excess mortality from lung cancer was because there were some subjects who died young (from 45 years old). Comparison with the results of a previous study showed that additional hazards produced by diesel engines and explosives increased the mortality from lung cancer. The SMR was higher than 400 (p < 0.001) from 45 years old instead of from 56 years. A relation was found between a decrease in vital capacity (VC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and of FEV1/VC and mortality from all causes and from lung cancer in heavy smokers or men who had worked underground for more than 20 years. Respiratory symptoms were related to mortality from lung cancer among smokers (moderate and heavy) who worked underground for more than 20 years. It is considered that the risk of lung cancer in the Lorraine iron miners was mainly due to dust, diesel engines, and explosives although the role of low exposure to radon daughters could not be totally excluded. PMID:8280627

Effects of Training on Controllability Attributions of Behavioural Excesses and Deficits Shown by Adults with Down Syndrome and Dementia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalsy, Sunny; Heath, Rebecca; Adams, Dawn; Oliver, Chris

2007-01-01

Background: Whereas there is a knowledge base on staff attributions of challenging behaviour, there has been little research on the effects of training, type of behaviour and biological context on staff attributions of controllability in the context of people with intellectual disabilities and dementia. Methods: A mixed design was used to…

[Disease burden attributable to household air pollution in 1990 and 2013 in China].

PubMed

Yin, P; Cai, Y; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Qi, J L; Wang, L J; You, J L; Zhou, M G

2017-01-06

Objective: To assess the disease burden attributable to household air pollution in 1990 and 2013 in China. Methods: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 in China (GBD 2013), we used population attributable fractions (PAF) to analyze the burden of different diseases attributable to solid-fuel household pollution in 2013 in China(not inclnding HongKang, Macao, Taiwan). We compared PAF, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for diseases attributable to solid-fuel household pollution in 31 provinces in mainland China in 1990 and 2013, and stratified the burden by age group. The estimated world average population during 2000- 2025 was used to calculate age-standardized mortality and DALY rates. Results: In 2013, 14.9% of lower respiratory infections in children <5, 32.5% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 12.0% of ischemic stroke, 14.2% of hemorrhagic stroke, 10.9% of ischemic heart disease, and 13.7% of lung cancer were attributable to solid-fuel household pollution. In addition, 807 000 deaths were attributable to solid-fuel household pollution, including 296 000 from COPD, 169 000 from hemorrhagic stroke, 152 000 from ischemic heart disease, 88 000 from ischemic stroke, 75 000 from lung cancer, and 28 000 from lower respiratory infections in children <5. The age-standardized mortality rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased by 59.3% from 158.8/100 000 in 1990 to 64.6/100 000 in 2013. The age-standardized mortality rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased in all 31 provinces, with the highest decline observed in Shanghai (96.3%), and lowest in Xinjiang (39.9%). In 2013, the age-standardized DALY rate from solid-fuel household pollution was highest in Guizhou (2 233.0/100 000) and lowest in Shanghai (27.0/100 000). The DALY rate was the highest for the >70 age group (7 006.0/100 000). Compared with 1990, the 2013 mortality rate and DALY rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased in all age groups, with the highest decline observed in the <5 age group (91.9% and 91.8% , respectively). Conclusion: Although the disease burden attributable to household air pollution decreased notably between 1990 and 2013, household pollution caused a high number of deaths and DALY loss in certain western provinces.

Directly alcohol-attributable mortality by industry and occupation in a Spanish Census cohort of economically active population.

PubMed

Pulido, José; Vallejo, Fernando; Alonso-López, Ignacio; Regidor, Enrique; Villar, Fernando; de la Fuente, Luis; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia; Barrio, Gregorio

2017-11-01

To assess disparities in directly alcohol-attributable (DAA) mortality by industry/occupation in Spain during 2002-2011 and the contribution of different socio-demographic factors, including socioeconomic position, to explain such disparity. Nationwide cohort study covering 16 million economically active people living in Spain in 2001. Deaths at age 25-64 were analyzed. Subjects were classified by employment status, industry and occupation at baseline. Poisson regression models were built, calculating rate ratios (RRs) compared to all employees or those in the education sector. DAA mortality was much higher in the unemployed than in employees (Crude RR: 2.4; 95% CI: 2.3-2.6) and varied widely across industries/occupations. Crude RRs>3.0 (p<0.05) compared to teachers were found in employees in extractive industries/fishing, agriculture/livestock, construction, catering/accommodation and protective services. Socio-demographic factors, especially age, gender and educational attainment contributed more to explain risk disparities than other factors or potential selection bias. However, after exhaustive sociodemographic adjustment, including education attainment and material wealth, a RR>1.33 (p<0.05) remained in unemployed, catering/accommodation employees and unskilled construction workers. RRs were significantly larger in women than men (p<0.05) among mineworkers/fishworkers/sailors (RR=8.6 vs. 1.2) and drivers (RR=3.7 vs. 1.0). The results could be extrapolated to all alcohol-attributable mortality since disparities for other strongly alcohol-related deaths, although smaller, were in the same direction. Given the wide occupational disparities in alcohol-attributable mortality, implementation of special measures to reduce this mortality in the highest risk groups is fully justified. Future research should better characterize the explanatory factors of disparities and their role in the causal chain. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cardiopulmonary mortality and COPD attributed to ambient ozone.

PubMed

Khaniabadi, Yusef Omidi; Hopke, Philip K; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Daryanoosh, Seyed Mohammad; Jourvand, Mehdi; Basiri, Hassan

2017-01-01

Tropospheric ozone is the second most important atmospheric pollutant after particulate matter with respect to its impact on human health and is increasing of its concentrations globally. The main objective of this study was to assess of health effects attributable to ground-level ozone (O 3 ) in Kermanshah, Iran using one-hour O 3 concentrations measured between March 2014 and March 2015. The AirQ program was applied for estimation of the numbers of cardiovascular mortality (CM), respiratory mortality (RM), and hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HA-COPD) using relative risk (RR) and baseline incidence (BI) as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The largest percentage of person-days for different O 3 concentrations was in the concentration range of 30-39µg/m 3 . The health modeling results suggested that ~2% (95% CI: 0-2.9%) of cardiovascular mortality, 5.9% (95% CI: 2.3-9.4) of respiratory mortality, and 4.1% (CI: 2.5-6.1%) of the HA-COPD were attributed to O 3 concentrations higher than 10µg/m 3 . For each 10µg/m 3 increase in O 3 concentration, the risk of cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, and HA-COPD increased by 0.40%, 1.25%, and 0.86%, respectively. Furthermore, 88.8% of health effects occurred on days with O 3 level less than 100µg/m 3 . Thus, action is needed to reduce the emissions of O 3 precursors especially transport and energy production in Kermanshah. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk factors of mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Pan; Shih, Shou-Chuan; Wang, Nai-Yu; Wu, Alice Y; Sun, Fang-Ju; Chow, Shan-Fan; Chen, Te-Li; Yan, Tsong-Rong

2016-12-01

Identification of risks of mortality for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), with early implementation of an appropriate therapy, is crucial for the patients' outcome. The aim of this study was to survey mortality risk factors in 182 patients with CRAB bacteremia in a medical center in Taiwan. A total of 182 isolates of CRAB bacteremia were collected from 2009 to 2012 in Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan These isolates were identified by using the genotypic method. Risk of attributable mortality analysis was carried out with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 182 CRAB isolates belonged to 38 different pulsotypes. The attributable mortality rate of the 182 patients was 58.24%. The risk factors for attributable mortality included intensive care unit stay [hazard ratio (HR): 2.27; p = 0.011], an Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of >20 (HR: 2.19; p < 0.001), respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia (HR: 3.40; p < 0.001), and previous use of ceftriaxone (HR: 2.51; p = 0.011). The appropriateness of antimicrobial therapy was 18.87% (20/106) in the mortality group versus 88.16% (67/76) in the survivor group (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of CRAB to colistin was 100% and to tigecycline was 40.11%. The risk factors for mortality for CRAB included intensive care unit stay, a high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, respiratory tract as the origin of bacteremia, and previous use of ceftriaxone. Early implementation of an antimicrobial agent that had the highest in vitro activity against CRAB in patients at risk of CRAB bacteremia and high mortality may improve their outcome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Estimating the acute effects of fine and coarse particle pollution on stroke mortality of in six Chinese subtropical cities.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojie; Qian, Zhengmin; Wang, Xiaojie; Hong, Hua; Yang, Yin; Xu, Yanjun; Xu, Xiaojun; Yao, Zhenjiang; Zhang, Lingli; Rolling, Craig A; Schootman, Mario; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Zeng, Weilin; Ma, Wenjun; Lin, Hualiang

2018-05-08

While increasing evidence suggested that PM 2.5 is the most harmful fraction of the particle pollutants, the health effects of coarse particles (PM 10-2.5 ) have been inconclusive, especially on cerebrovascular diseases, we thus evaluated the effects of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10-2.5 on stroke mortality in six Chinese subtropical cities using generalized additive models. We also conducted random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the overall effects across the six cities. We found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10-2.5 were significantly associated with stroke mortality. Each 10 μg/m 3 increase of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and PM 10-2.5 (lag03) was associated with an increase of 1.88% (95% CI: 1.37%, 2.39%), 3.07% (95% CI: 2.35%, 3.79%), and 5.72% (95% CI: 3.82%, 7.65%) in overall stroke mortality. Using the World Health Organization's guideline as reference concentration, we estimated that 3.21% (95% CI: 1.65%, 3.01%) of stroke mortality (corresponding to 1743 stroke mortalities, 95% CI: 896, 1633) were attributed to PM 10 , 5.57% (95% CI: 0.50%, 1.23%) stroke mortality (3019, 95% CI: 2286, 3777) were attributed to PM 2.5 , and 2.02% (95% CI: 1.85%, 3.08%) of stroke mortality (1097, 95% CI: 1005, 1673) could be attributed to PM 10-2.5 . Our analysis indicates that both PM 2.5 and PM 10-2.5 are important risk factors of stroke mortality and should be considered in the prevention and control of stroke in the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality at an automotive engine foundry and machining complex.

PubMed

Park, R M

2001-05-01

Mortality was analyzed for an automotive engine foundry and machining complex, with process exposures derived from department assignments. Logistic regression models of mortality odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for 2546 deaths, and numbers of work-related deaths were estimated. Lung cancer mortality in the foundry was increased where cleaning and finishing of castings was performed (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.4 [at mean exposure duration of exposed cases]) and in care-making after 1967 (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.0). Black workers had excess lung cancer mortality in machining heat-treat operations (OR, 2.5, 95% CI, 1.4 to 4.3) and excess nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality in molding (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.16 to 5.5) and core-making (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.25 to 5.8). Stomach cancer mortality was elevated among workers with metalworking fluid exposures in precision grinding (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.14 to 5.1). Heart disease mortality was increased among all workers in molding (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.3), as was stroke mortality among workers exposed to metalworking fluids (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.22 to 2.7). Malignant and nonmalignant liver disease mortality was elevated in assembly/testing and precision grinding. In this modern foundry, 11% of deaths were estimated to be work-related despite it's being largely in regulatory compliance over its 40-year existence. Machining plant exposures accounted for 3% or more of deaths there.

Gender differences in socioeconomic inequality of alcohol-attributable mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Probst, Charlotte; Roerecke, Michael; Behrendt, Silke; Rehm, Jürgen

2015-05-01

The present analysis contributes to understanding the societal distribution of alcohol-attributable harm by investigating socioeconomic inequality and related gender differences in alcohol-attributable mortality. A systematic literature search was performed on Web of Science, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and ETOH from their inception until February 2013. Articles were included when they reported data on alcohol-attributable mortality by socioeconomic status (SES), operationalised as education, occupation, employment status or income. Gender-specific relative risks (RR) comparing low with high SES were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. Gender differences were additionally investigated in random effects meta-regressions. Nineteen articles from 14 countries were included. For women, significant RRs across all measures of SES, except employment status, were found, ranging between 1.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.54; occupation] and 4.78 (95% CI 2.57-8.87; income). For men, all measures of SES showed significant RRs ranging between 2.88 (95% CI 2.45-3.40; income) and 12.25 (95% CI 11.45-13.10; employment status). While RRs for men were in general slightly higher, only for occupation this gender difference was above chance (P = 0.01). Results refer to deaths 100% attributable to alcohol. The results are predominantly based on data from high-income countries, limiting generalisability. Alcohol-attributable mortality is strongly distributed to the disadvantage of persons with a low SES. Marked gender differences in this inequality were found for occupation. Possibly male-dominated occupations of low SES were more strongly related to risky drinking cultures compared with female-dominated occupations of the same SES. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Mortality of a cohort of road construction and maintenance workers with work disability compensation.

PubMed

d'Errico, A; Mamo, C; Tomaino, A; Dalmasso, M; Demaria, M; Costa, G

2002-01-01

Surveillance systems of occupational mortality are useful tools to identify cases of diseases suspected as occupational and to monitor their occurrence over time, in space and in population subgroups. Many surveillance systems make use of administrative data in which information about occupations and/or economic sectors of the subjects enrolled is reported, such as death certificates, hospital discharge data, census data, tax and pension records, and workers' compensation archives. In the present study we analyzed the mortality of a cohort of road construction and maintenance workers enrolled through the Italian national archive of work disability compensations, also in order to evaluate the possible use of this administrative source to monitor occupational mortality. 8,000 subjects (7,879 males) receiving a disability compensation while working in the "road construction and maintenance" sector were identified from INAIL (National Institute for Insurance of Accidents at Work) archives. Vital status of these subjects was ascertained using the information available in INAIL archives and in the national tax register. For those found to be deceased from INAIL or tax archives, or without any information on vital status, a mail follow-up was started. We considered as observation period the years from 1980 to 1993. A record linkage with the ISTAT (Italian Institute of Statistics) national mortality registry was performed and the cause of death was retrieved for 964 out of 1,259 subjects. The analysis was restricted to males, leaving altogether 863 observed deaths with ascertained cause (84.7% of 1,019 total male deaths). SMR for overall mortality and PMR for specific cause mortality were computed, using the general Italian male population as reference. Overall mortality was significantly reduced (SMR = 79.0; 95% CI = 74.2-84.0). Proportional mortality analysis revealed significant excess risks for all malignant tumours (332 deaths, PMR = 1.08) and for digestive diseases (87 deaths, PMR = 1.34), while mortality for cardiovascular diseases was significantly decreased (288 deaths, PMR = 0.90). Among specific causes of death, significant excess mortality was found for cancer of testicles (2 deaths, PMR = 5.98), liver and biliary ducts (32 deaths, PMR = 1.40), and for silicosis (10 deaths, PMR = 3.07) and cirrhosis (64 deaths, PMR = 1.40). The excess mortality observed for all cancers, digestive diseases and silicosis, and the decreased risk for cardiovascular diseases are in agreement with the results of other studies conducted on workers in road construction and maintenance. As expected, the low overall mortality and the reduced risk from cardiovascular diseases indicate that these workers present a strong "healthy worker effect".

A matter of life and death: population mortality and football results

PubMed Central

Kirkup, W; Merrick, D

2003-01-01

Objectives: To determine whether football results are associated with mortality from circulatory disease. Design: Retrospective study, comparing mortality on days of football matches between 18 August 1994 and 28 December 1999 with the results of the football matches. Setting: Newcastle and North Tyneside, Sunderland, Tees, and Leeds Health Authority areas of England. Subjects: All persons resident in Newcastle and North Tyneside, Sunderland, Tees, and Leeds Health Authority areas of England. Main outcome measures: Mortality attributable to acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Results: On days when the local professional football team lost at home, mortality attributable to acute myocardial infarction and stroke increased significantly in men (relative risk 1.28, 95% confidence intervals 1.11 to 1.47). No increase was observed in women. Conclusions: Results achieved by the local professional football team are associated systematically with circulatory disease death rates over a five year period in men, but not women. PMID:12775788

The value of the girl child in Singapore.

PubMed

Thein, M M; Goh, L G

1991-01-01

Son preference exists in many countries in Asia. In countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal, such preference has been shown to result in excess female mortality. In Singapore, there is also son preference but excess female mortality is not seen because of several factors: Government's policy of equal educational opportunities for boys and girls since World War II, the protection of women's rights through the Women's Charter, the family planning message that "Boy or Girl, two is enough", urbanisation and industrialisation. Singapore is seeing increasing participation of women in the workforce, not only as clerks and factory operators but also as decision makers in middle and senior management positions. In this modern age, the girl child should be given as much value as the boy child. Only when such an egalitarian attitude towards the girl child exists would she be able to develop into her full potential to be an asset to her country. Government policies to promote the well-being, protect the rights, and to improve the lot of the girl child appear necessary in countries where son preference leads to excess mortality of girls from sex discrimination in nutrition and/or health care.

Estimation of excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Japan using a high-resolution model for present and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, Daisuke; Ueda, Kayo; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Takami, Akinori; Ariga, Toshinori; Matsuhashi, Keisuke; Nakajima, Teruyuki

2016-09-01

Particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm, known as PM2.5, can affect human health, especially in elderly people. Because of the imminent aging of society in the near future in most developed countries, the human health impacts of PM2.5 must be evaluated. In this study, we used a global-to-regional atmospheric transport model to simulate PM2.5 in Japan with a high-resolution stretched grid system (∼10 km for the high-resolution model, HRM) for the present (the 2000) and the future (the 2030, as proposed by the Representative Concentrations Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5). We also used the same model with a low-resolution uniform grid system (∼100 km for the low-resolution model, LRM). These calculations were conducted by nudging meteorological fields obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled model and providing emission inventories used in the coupled model. After correcting for bias, we calculated the excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 among the elderly (over 65 years old) based on different minimum PM2.5 concentration (MINPM) levels to account for uncertainty using the simulated PM2.5 distributions to express the health effect as a concentration-response function. As a result, we estimated the excess mortality for all of Japan to be 31,300 (95% confidence intervals: 20,700 to 42,600) people in 2000 and 28,600 (95% confidence intervals: 19,000 to 38,700) people in 2030 using the HRM with a MINPM of 5.8 μg/m3. In contrast, the LRM resulted in underestimates of approximately 30% (for PM2.5 concentrations in the 2000 and 2030), approximately 60% (excess mortality in the 2000) and approximately 90% (excess mortality in 2030) compared to the HRM results. We also found that the uncertainty in the MINPM value, especially for low PM2.5 concentrations in the future (2030) can cause large variability in the estimates, ranging from 0 (MINPM of 15 μg/m3 in both HRM and LRM) to 95,000 (MINPM of 0 μg/m3 in HRM) people.

Green tree frog (Hyla cinerea) and ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) mortality attributed to inland brevetoxin transportation at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buttke, Danielle E.; Walker, Alicia; Huang, I-Shuo; Flewelling, Leanne; Lankton, Julia S.; Ballmann, Anne E.; Clapp, Travis; Lindsay, James; Zimba, Paul V.

2018-01-01

On 16 September 2015, a red tide (Karenia brevis) bloom impacted coastal areas of Padre Island National Seashore Park. Two days later and about 0.9 km inland, 30–40 adult green tree frogs (Hyla cinerea) were found dead after displaying tremors, weakness, labored breathing, and other signs of neurologic impairment. A rainstorm, accompanied by high winds, rough surf, and high tides, which could have aerosolized brevetoxin, occurred on the morning of the mortality event. Frog carcasses were healthy but contained significant brevetoxin in tissues. Tissue brevetoxin was also found in two dead or dying spotted ground squirrels (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) and a coyote (Canis latrans). Rainwater collected from the location of the mortality event contained brevetoxin. Mortality of green tree frog and ground squirrel mortality has not been previously attributed to brevetoxin exposure and such mortality suggested that inland toxin transport, possibly through aerosols, rainfall, or insects, may have important implications for coastal species.

The effect of alcoholic beverage excise tax on alcohol-attributable injury mortalities.

PubMed

Son, Chong Hwan; Topyan, Kudret

2011-04-01

This study examines the effect of state excise taxes on different types of alcoholic beverages (spirits, wine, and beer) on alcohol-attributable injury mortalities--deaths caused by motor vehicle accidents, suicides, homicides, and falls--in the United States between 1995 and 2004, using state-level panel data. There is evidence that injury deaths attributable to alcohol respond differently to changes in state excise taxes on alcohol-specific beverages. This study examines the direct relationship between injury deaths and excise taxes without testing the degree of the association between excise taxes and alcohol consumption. The study finds that beer taxes are negatively related to motor vehicle accident mortality, while wine taxes are negatively associated with suicides and falls. The positive coefficient of the spirit taxes on falls implies a substitution effect between spirits and wine, suggesting that an increase in spirit tax will cause spirit buyers to purchase more wine. This study finds no evidence of a relationship between homicides and state excise taxes on alcohol. Thus, the study concludes that injury deaths attributable to alcohol respond differently to the excise taxes on different types of alcoholic beverages.

Education Models for Teaching Adults about Modifying Dietary Carbohydrate and Controlling Weight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cleamons, Vincient M.

2018-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes and other pathophysiological conditions has been correlated with the incidence of obesity. A large portion of an adult community in the northwestern United States suffers from excessive weight that has been linked to premature mortality rates and certain forms of diabetes. Excess calories from carbohydrate have been…

Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

PubMed Central

Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

Quantifying the hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Cameron, Cate M; McClure, Rod

2016-01-01

Objectives To quantify the 12-month hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia. Setting New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, Australia. Participants Individuals ≥18 years who had an injury-related hospital admission in 2009 formed the injured cohort. The non-injured comparison cohort was randomly selected from the electoral roll and was matched 1:1 on age, gender and postcode of residence at the date of the index injury admission of their matched counterpart. Primary outcome measures Using linked emergency department presentation, hospital admission and mortality records from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 for both the injured and non-injured cohorts, 12-month mortality and pre-index and post-index injury hospital service use was examined. Adjusted rate ratios and attributable risk were calculated. Results There were 167 600 individuals injured in 2009 and admitted to hospital in New South Wales, South Australia or Queensland with a matched comparison. The injured cohort had 3 times higher proportion of having ≥1 comorbidity preinjury, higher preinjury hospital service use, and a higher 12-month mortality compared with a non-injured comparison group. The injured cohort had 2.20 (95% CI 2.12 to 2.28) times higher rate of hospital admissions in the 12 months post the index injury admission compared with the non-injured comparison cohort. Injury was a likely contributory factor in at least 55% of hospitalisations within 12 months of the index injury hospitalisation. Conclusions Individuals who had an injury-related hospitalisation had higher mortality and are hospitalised at increased rates for many months postinjury. While comorbid conditions are significant, they do not account for the differences in outcomes. This study contributes to informing research efforts on better quantifying the attributable burden of hospitalised injury-related disability and mortality in Australia. PMID:27927664

Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Guo, Yuming; Goodman, Patrick; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Michelozzi, Paola; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Schwartz, Joel; Scortichini, Matteo; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Zeka, Ariana; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

Background: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). Objectives: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. Methods: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. Results: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. Conclusions: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1756 PMID:29084393

Mortality from all cancers of asbestos factory workers in east London 1933-80

PubMed Central

Berry, G; Newhouse, M; Wagner, J

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To give the observed and expected deaths due to cancer at all separate sites in asbestos workers in east London, and to analyse these for overall effect and exposure-response trend.
METHODS—The mortality experience of a cohort of over 5000 men and women followed up for over 30 years since first exposure to asbestos has been extracted.
RESULTS—There was a large excess of deaths due to cancer (537 observed, 222 expected). Most of these were due to cancer of the lung (232 observed, 77 expected) and pleural (52) and peritoneal (48) mesothelioma. The exposure-response trend for all these three causes was highly significant. There was also an excess of cancer of the colon (27 observed, 15 expected) which was significantly related to exposure. There were significant excesses of cancer of the ovary, of the liver, and of the oesophagus but with no consistent relation to exposure.
CONCLUSIONS—The excess risk of cancer after exposure to asbestos was mainly due to cancer of the lung and mesothelioma. An exposure related excess of cancer of the colon was also detected but the possibility that some of these deaths may have been peritoneal mesotheliomas could not be excluded. There was no consistent evidence of exposure related excesses at any other site.


Keywords: asbestos; cancer; exposure-response PMID:11024203

Association between all-cause mortality and severity of depressive symptoms in patients with type 2 diabetes: Analysis from the Japan Diabetes Complications Study (JDCS).

PubMed

Matsunaga, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shiro; Fujihara, Kazuya; Horikawa, Chika; Iimuro, Satoshi; Kitaoka, Masafumi; Sato, Asako; Nakamura, Jiro; Haneda, Masakazu; Shimano, Hitoshi; Akanuma, Yasuo; Ohashi, Yasuo; Sone, Hirohito

2017-08-01

The aims of this study are to confirm whether the excess mortality caused by depressive symptoms is independent of severe hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to evaluate the association between all-cause mortality and degrees of severity of depressive symptoms in Japanese patients with T2DM. A total of 1160 Japanese patients with T2DM were eligible for this analysis. Participants were followed prospectively for 3years and their depressive states were evaluated at baseline by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the relative risk of all-cause mortality and was adjusted by possible confounding factors, including severe hypoglycemia, all of which are known as risk factors for both depression and mortality. After adjustment for severe hypoglycemia, each 5-point increase in the CES-D score was significantly associated with excess all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.69 [95% CI 1.26-2.17]). The spline curve of HRs for mortality according to total CES-D scores showed that mortality risk was slightly increased at lower scores but was sharply elevated at higher scores. A high score on the CES-D at baseline was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM after adjusting for confounders including severe hypoglycemia. However, only a small effect on mortality risk was found at relatively lower levels of depressive symptoms in this population. Further research is needed to confirm this relationship between the severity of depressive symptoms and mortality in patients with T2DM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai.

PubMed

Va, Puthiery; Yang, Wan-Shui; Nechuta, Sarah; Chow, Wong-Ho; Cai, Hui; Yang, Gong; Gao, Shan; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xiang, Yong-Bing

2011-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality. We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (1996-2009) and Shanghai Men's Health Study (2002-2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40-70 years and 61,500 men aged 40-74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality. Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.

Trends in total and cause-specific mortality by marital status among elderly Norwegian men and women

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Previous research has shown large and increasing relative differences in mortality by marital status in several countries, but few studies have considered trends in cause-specific mortality by marital status among elderly people. Methods The author uses discrete-time hazard regression and register data covering the entire Norwegian population to analyze how associations between marital status and several causes of death have changed for men and women of age 75-89 from 1971-2007. Educational level, region of residence and centrality are included as control variables. There are 804 243 deaths during the 11 102 306 person-years of follow-up. Results Relative to married persons, those who are never married, divorced or widowed have significantly higher mortality for most causes of death. The odds of death are highest for divorcees, followed by never married and widowed. Moreover, the excess mortality among the non-married is higher for men than for women, at least in the beginning of the time period. Relative differences in mortality by marital status have increased from 1971-2007. In particular, the excess mortality of the never married women and, to a lesser extent, men has been rising. The widening of the marital status differentials is most pronounced for mortality resulting from circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases (women), other diseases and external deaths (women). Differences in cancer mortality by marital status have been stable over time. Conclusions Those who are married may have lower mortality because of protective effects of marriage or selection of healthy individuals into marriage, and the importance of such mechanisms may have changed over time. However, with the available data it is not possible to identify the mechanisms responsible for the increasing relative differences in mortality by marital status in Norway. PMID:21733170

Contributors to the Excess Stroke Mortality in Rural Areas in the United States.

PubMed

Howard, George; Kleindorfer, Dawn O; Cushman, Mary; Long, D Leann; Jasne, Adam; Judd, Suzanne E; Higginbotham, John C; Howard, Virginia J

2017-07-01

Stroke mortality is 30% higher in the rural United States. This could be because of either higher incidence or higher case fatality from stroke in rural areas. The urban-rural status of 23 280 stroke-free participants recruited between 2003 and 2007 in the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) was classified using the Rural-Urban Commuting Area scheme as residing in urban, large rural town/city, or small rural town or isolated areas. The risk of incident stroke was assessed using proportional hazards analysis, and case fatality (death within 30 days of stroke) was assessed using logistic regression. Models were adjusted for demographics, traditional stroke risk factors, and measures of socioeconomic status. After adjustment for demographic factors and relative to urban areas, stroke incidence was 1.23-times higher (95% confidence intervals, 1.01-1.51) in large rural town/cities and 1.30-times higher (95% confidence intervals, 1.03-1.62) in small rural towns or isolated areas. Adjustment for risk factors and socioeconomic status only modestly attenuated this association, and the association became marginally nonsignificant ( P =0.071). There was no association of rural-urban status with case fatality ( P >0.47). The higher stroke mortality in rural regions seemed to be attributable to higher stroke incidence rather than case fatality. A higher prevalence of risk factors and lower socioeconomic status only modestly contributed to the increased risk of incident stroke risk in rural areas. There was no evidence of higher case fatality in rural areas. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Perinatal and infant mortality in urban slums under I.C.D.S. scheme.

PubMed

Thora, S; Awadhiya, S; Chansoriya, M; Kaul, K K

1986-08-01

Perinatal and infant mortality during the year 1985 was analyzed through a prospective study conducted in 12 Anganwadis (total population of 13,054) located in slum areas of India's Jabalpur city. Overall, the infant mortality rate was 128.7/1000 live births and the perinatal mortality rate was 88.5/1000 live births. 58.5% of deaths occurred in the neonatal period. Causes of neonatal deaths included prematurity, respiratory distress syndrome, birth asphyxia, septicemia, and neonatal tetanus. Postneonatal deaths were largely attributable to dehydration from diarrhea, bronchopneumonia, malnutrition, and infectious diseases. All mortality rates were significantly higher in Muslims than among Hindus. Muslims accounted for 28% of the study population, but contributed 63% of stillbirths and 55% of total infant deaths. This phenomenon appears attributable to the large family size among Muslims coupled with inadequate maternal-child health care. The national neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates are 88/1000 and 52/1000, respectively. The fact that the neonatal mortality rate in the study area was slightly lower than the national average may reflect the impact of ICDS services.

A retrospective cohort mortality study of blending and packaging workers of Mobil Corporation.

PubMed

Collingwood, K W; Milcarek, B I; Raabe, G K

1991-01-01

This retrospective cohort mortality study examined 2,467 workers in lubrication products blending and packaging (B&P) operations at two refineries of Mobil Corporation between January 1, 1945 and December 31, 1978. Ninety-seven percent were male. Compared with U.S. males, there were significantly fewer deaths observed among males due to all causes, external causes, and diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, digestive, and genitourinary systems. Deaths observed from all cancer were fewer than expected, although not statistically significant. No statistically significant excess cause-specific mortality occurred at B&P facilities combined or separately. Nonsignificant increases in mortality were observed for cancers of the stomach, large intestine, prostate, the category of "other lymphatic tissue" cancer, and leukemia and aleukemia. Analyses demonstrated a statistically significant pattern of increasing SMR with employment duration for "other lymphatic tissue" cancer. Within the highest cumulative duration of employment category, the excess was confined to workers after 30 or more years since first employment. Although the interpretation of cancer mortality patterns is limited due to small numbers of deaths, the absence of associations with specific B&P departments is evidence against a causal interpretation.

Sex differences in cardiovascular mortality in diabetics and nondiabetic subjects: a population-based study (Italy).

PubMed

Ballotari, Paola; Ranieri, Sofia Chiatamone; Luberto, Ferdinando; Caroli, Stefania; Greci, Marina; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Manicardi, Valeria

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of diabetes on cardiovascular mortality, focusing on sex differences. The inhabitants of Reggio Emilia province on December 31, 2009, aged 20-84 were followed up for three years for mortality. The exposure was determined using Reggio Emilia diabetes register. The age-adjusted death rates were estimated as well as the incidence rate ratios using Poisson regression model. Interaction terms for diabetes and sex were tested by the Wald test. People with diabetes had an excess of mortality, compared with nondiabetic subjects (all cause: IRR = 1.68; 95%CI 1.60-1.78; CVD: IRR = 1.61; 95%CI 1.47-1.76; AMI: IRR = 1.59; 95%CI 1.27-1.99; renal causes: IRR = 1.71; 95%CI 1.22-2.38). The impact of diabetes is greater in females than males for all causes (P = 0.0321) and for CVD, IMA, and renal causes. Further studies are needed to investigate whether the difference in cardiovascular risk profile or in the quality of care delivered justifies the higher excess of mortality in females with diabetes compared to males.

Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Mortality in Diabetics and Nondiabetic Subjects: A Population-Based Study (Italy)

PubMed Central

Ballotari, Paola; Ranieri, Sofia Chiatamone; Luberto, Ferdinando; Caroli, Stefania; Greci, Marina; Manicardi, Valeria

2015-01-01

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of diabetes on cardiovascular mortality, focusing on sex differences. The inhabitants of Reggio Emilia province on December 31, 2009, aged 20–84 were followed up for three years for mortality. The exposure was determined using Reggio Emilia diabetes register. The age-adjusted death rates were estimated as well as the incidence rate ratios using Poisson regression model. Interaction terms for diabetes and sex were tested by the Wald test. People with diabetes had an excess of mortality, compared with nondiabetic subjects (all cause: IRR = 1.68; 95%CI 1.60–1.78; CVD: IRR = 1.61; 95%CI 1.47–1.76; AMI: IRR = 1.59; 95%CI 1.27–1.99; renal causes: IRR = 1.71; 95%CI 1.22–2.38). The impact of diabetes is greater in females than males for all causes (P = 0.0321) and for CVD, IMA, and renal causes. Further studies are needed to investigate whether the difference in cardiovascular risk profile or in the quality of care delivered justifies the higher excess of mortality in females with diabetes compared to males. PMID:25873959

Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

PubMed

Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

2013-01-01

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Wenjuan; Yang, Chunxue; Chu, Chen; Li, Tiantian; Tan, Jianguo; Kan, Haidong

2013-01-01

No prior studies in China have investigated the health impact of cold spell. In Shanghai, we defined the cold spell as a period of at least seven consecutive days with daily temperature below the third percentile during the study period (2001-2009). Between January 2001 and December 2009, we identified a cold spell between January 27 and February 3, 2008 in Shanghai. We investigated the impact of cold spell on mortality of the residents living in the nine urban districts of Shanghai. We calculated the excess deaths and rate ratios (RRs) during the cold spell and compared these data with a winter reference period (January 6-9, and February 28 to March 2). The number of excess deaths during the cold spell period was 153 in our study population. The cold spell caused a short-term increase in total mortality of 13 % (95 % CI: 7-19 %). The impact was statistically significant for cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.21, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.31), but not for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.14, 95 % CI: 0.98-1.32). For total mortality, gender did not make a statistically significant difference for the cold spell impact. Cold spell had a significant impact on mortality in elderly people (over 65 years), but not in other age groups. Conclusively, our analysis showed that the 2008 cold spell had a substantial effect on mortality in Shanghai. Public health programs should be tailored to prevent cold-spell-related health problems in the city.

Extreme all-cause mortality in JUPITER requires reexamination of vital records.

PubMed

Serebruany, Victor L

2011-01-01

To compare all-cause mortality in JUPITER with other statin trials at 21 months of follow-up. Outcome advantages including all-cause mortality reduction yielded from the JUPITER trial support aggressive use of rosuvastatin and, perhaps by extension, other statins for primary prevention. Despite enrolling apparently healthy subjects and early trial termination at 21 months of mean follow-up, JUPITER revealed very high all-cause mortality in both the placebo (2.8%) and rosuvastatin (2.2%) arms. Comparison of all-cause mortality prorated for 21 months in 10 primary prevention studies and 1 acute coronary syndromes statin trial. The all-cause mortality in JUPITER was more than twice that of the average of primary prevention studies, matching well only with specific trials designed in diabetics (ASPEN or CARDS), early hypertension studies (ALLHAT-LLT) or a trial in patients with acute coronary syndromes (PROVE IT). Since the 'play of chance' is unlikely to explain these discrepancies due to excellent baseline match, excess death rates and all-cause mortality rates in both JUPITER arms must be questioned. It may be important that the study sponsor self-monitored sites. Excess all-cause mortality rates in the apparently relatively healthy JUPITER population are alarming and require independent verification. If, indeed, the surprising outcomes in JUPITER are successfully challenged, and considering established harm of statins with regard to rhabdomyolysis as well as, potentially, diabetes, millions of patients may find better and safer options for primary prevention of vascular events. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The cardiovascular system in growth hormone excess and growth hormone deficiency.

PubMed

Lombardi, G; Di Somma, C; Grasso, L F S; Savanelli, M C; Colao, A; Pivonello, R

2012-12-01

The clinical conditions associated with GH excess and GH deficiency (GHD) are known to be associated with an increased risk for the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, suggesting that either an excess or a deficiency in GH and/or IGF-I is deleterious for cardiovascular system. In patients with acromegaly, chronic GH and IGF-I excess commonly causes a specific cardiomyopathy characterized by a concentric cardiac hypertrophy associated with diastolic dysfunction and, in later stages, with systolic dysfunction ending in heart failure if GH/IGF-I excess is not controlled. Abnormalities of cardiac rhythm and anomalies of cardiac valves can also occur. Moreover, the increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and insulin resistance, as well as dyslipidemia, confer an increased risk for vascular atherosclerosis. Successful control of the disease is accompanied by a decrease of the cardiac mass and improvement of cardiac function and an improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. In patients with hypopituitarism, GHD has been considered the under- lying factor of the increased mortality when appropriate standard replacement of the pituitary hormones deficiencies is given. Either childhood-onset or adulthood-onset GHD are characterized by a cluster of abnormalities associated with an increased cardiovascular risk, including altered body composition, unfavorable lipid profile, insulin resistance, endothelial dysfunction and vascular atherosclerosis, a decrease in cardiac mass together with an impairment of systolic function mainly after exercise. Treatment with recombinant GH in patients with GHD is followed by an improvement of the cardiovascular risk factors and an increase in cardiac mass together with an improvement in cardiac performance. In conclusion, acromegaly and GHD are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, but the control of GH/IGF-I secretion reverses cardiovascular abnormalities and restores the normal life expectancy.

Low mortality after mild measles infection compared to uninfected children in rural West Africa.

PubMed

Aaby, Peter; Simondon, Francois; Samb, Badara; Cisse, Badara; Jensen, Henrik; Lisse, Ida Maria; Soumaré, Masserigne; Whittle, Hilton

2002-11-22

It has been assumed that measles infection may be associated with persistent immune suppression and long-term excess mortality. However, few community studies of mortality after measles infection have been carried out. We examined long-term mortality for measles cases, sub-clinical measles cases, and uninfected contacts after an epidemic in rural Senegal. The study was carried out in Niakhar, a rural area of Senegal. Index cases of measles were identified and children less than 7 years of age exposed to measles in the same compound had acute and convalescent blood samples collected. Clinically diagnosed measles cases were serologically confirmed. Children without clinical symptoms were classified as sub-clinical cases if they had a four-fold or greater change in antibody levels between samples collected at exposure and 1 month later and as uninfected if there was no or a two-fold change in antibody levels. There were 31 index cases, and among 184 exposed contacts, 35 (19%) children developed clinical measles. Among contacts that did not develop clinical measles, 45% had sub-clinical infection. Measles cases, sub-clinical cases, and uninfected contacts did not differ with respect to nutritional status. However, uninfected children without clinical symptoms and change in antibody level had higher initial measles specific IgG antibody levels and less intensive exposure to the index case. No index or secondary case of measles died in the acute phase of infection nor did any of the children exposed to measles die in the first 2 months after exposure. Exposed children developing clinical measles had lower age-adjusted mortality over the next 4 years than exposed children who did not develop clinical measles (P<0.05). Sub-clinical measles cases tended to have low mortality and compared with uninfected children, exposed children with clinical or sub-clinical measles had lower age-adjusted mortality (mortality ratio (MR)=0.20 (0.06-0.74)). Controlling for background factors had no impact of the estimates. When measles infection is mild, clinical measles has no long-term excess mortality and may be associated with better overall survival than no clinical measles infection. Sub-clinical measles is common among immunised children and is not associated with excess mortality.

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. II: Short-term trends during transition and in the 1990s

PubMed Central

Nolte, E.; Shkolnikov, V.; McKee, M.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES—To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland.
METHODS—Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were examined using data for 1988/89 and 1990/91 for the former GDR and Poland; examination of life expectancy changes after transition were based on 1992-97 data for Germany and 1991-96 data for Poland.
RESULTS—In both the former GDR and Poland male life expectancy at birth declined by almost one year during transition, mainly attributable to rising death rates from external causes and circulatory diseases. Female life expectancy in Poland deteriorated by 0.3 years, largely attributable to increasing circulatory mortality among the old, while in East German female rising death rates in children and young adults were nearly outbalanced by declining circulatory mortality among those over 70. Between 1991/92 and 1996/97, male life expectancy at birth increased by 2.4 years in the former GDR, 1.2 years in old Federal Republic, and 2.0 years in Poland (women: 2.3, 0.9, and 1.2 years). In East Germany and Poland, the overall improvement was largely attributable to falling mortality among men aged 40-64, while those over 65 contributed the largest proportion to life expectancy gains in women. The change in deaths among men aged 15-39 accounted for 0.4 of a year to life expectancy at birth in East Germany and Poland, attributable largely to greater decreases from external causes. Among those over 40, absolute contributions to changing life expectancy were greater in the former GDR than in the other two entities in both sexes, largely attributable to circulatory diseases. A persisting East-west life expectancy gap in Germany of 2.1 years in men in 1997 was largely attributable to external causes, diseases of the digestive system and circulatory diseases. Higher death rates from circulatory diseases among the elderly largely explain the female life expectancy gap of approximately one year.
CONCLUSIONS—This study provides further insights into the health effects of political transition. Post-transition improvements in life expectancy and mortality have been much steeper in East Germany compared with Poland. Changes in dietary pattern and, in Germany, medical care may have been important factors in shaping post-transition mortality trends. 


Keywords: mortality trends; Germany; Poland; transition PMID:11076985

Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

PubMed

Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

2016-01-01

To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Implementing a More Severe Drunk-Driving Law in China: Findings from Two Open Access Data Sources.

PubMed

Xiao, Wangxin; Ning, Peishan; Schwebel, David C; Hu, Guoqing

2017-07-25

In 2011, China implemented a more severe drunk-driving law. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the law on road traffic morbidity and mortality attributed to alcohol use. Data were from two open-access data sources, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 update and police data. Poisson regression examined the significance of changes in morbidity and mortality. Large gaps in crude death estimates from road traffic crashes attributed to alcohol use emerged between the two data sources. For the GBD 2015 update, crude and age-standardized mortality displayed consistent trends between 1990 and 2015; age-standardized mortality per 100,000 persons increased from 5.71 in 1990 to 7.48 in 2005 and then continuously decreased down to 5.94 in 2015. Police data showed a decrease for crude mortality per 100,000 persons from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.15 in 2010 and then an increase to 0.19 in 2015. We conclude available data are inadequate to determine the effectiveness of the implementation of the more severe drunk-driving law in China since the two data sources present highly inconsistent results. Further effort is needed to tackle data inconsistencies and obtain reliable and accurate data on road traffic injury attributable to alcohol use in China.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Implementing a More Severe Drunk-Driving Law in China: Findings from Two Open Access Data Sources

PubMed Central

Xiao, Wangxin; Ning, Peishan; Hu, Guoqing

2017-01-01

In 2011, China implemented a more severe drunk-driving law. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the law on road traffic morbidity and mortality attributed to alcohol use. Data were from two open-access data sources, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 update and police data. Poisson regression examined the significance of changes in morbidity and mortality. Large gaps in crude death estimates from road traffic crashes attributed to alcohol use emerged between the two data sources. For the GBD 2015 update, crude and age-standardized mortality displayed consistent trends between 1990 and 2015; age-standardized mortality per 100,000 persons increased from 5.71 in 1990 to 7.48 in 2005 and then continuously decreased down to 5.94 in 2015. Police data showed a decrease for crude mortality per 100,000 persons from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.15 in 2010 and then an increase to 0.19 in 2015. We conclude available data are inadequate to determine the effectiveness of the implementation of the more severe drunk-driving law in China since the two data sources present highly inconsistent results. Further effort is needed to tackle data inconsistencies and obtain reliable and accurate data on road traffic injury attributable to alcohol use in China. PMID:28757551

Cancer mortality among workers exposed to zinc chromate paints.

PubMed

Dalager, N A; Mason, T J; Fraumeni, J F; Hoover, R; Payne, W W

1980-01-01

To evaluate the carcinogenicity of chromium compounds among user industries, the proportionate mortality experience of spray painters exposed to zinc chromate primer paints and electroplaters exposed to chromic acid in the aircraft maintenance industry was examined. Compared to the mortality patterns of U.S. white males, no excess of cancer was found in the 48 deaths among electroplaters. Analysis of the 202 deaths among spray painters revealed a significant excess of cancer, primarily of the respiratory tract. The relative increase of respiratory cancer showed a positive gradient with the length of estimated exposure time, and was confined to painters whose interval from first employment to death was at least 20 years. The findings consistent with occupational exposure to chromium compounds, previously shown to be carcinogenic in manufacturing processes, but the effect of other paint constituents, tobacco smoking, or methodologic limitations could not be discounted.

The impact of marital status on cancer survival.

PubMed

Kravdal, O

2001-02-01

Marital differentials in survival from 12 common types of cancer are assessed by estimating a mixed additive multiplicative hazard regression model on the basis of individual register and census data for the whole Norwegian population. These data cover the period 1960-91 and include more than 100,000 cancer deaths. The data and method make it possible to take into account the marital mortality differentialsin the absence of cancer. The excess all-cause mortality among cancer patients compared with similar persons without a cancer diagnosis is, on the whole, more than 15% higher for never-married men, never-married women and divorced men, than for the married of the same sex. Other previously married have an excess mortality elevated by about 7%. This protective effect of marriage is not due to stage, which is controlled for. The possible importance of treatment and host factors is discussed.

Alcohol and cause-specific mortality in Russia: a retrospective case-control study of 48,557 adult deaths.

PubMed

Zaridze, David; Brennan, Paul; Boreham, Jillian; Boroda, Alex; Karpov, Rostislav; Lazarev, Alexander; Konobeevskaya, Irina; Igitov, Vladimir; Terechova, Tatiana; Boffetta, Paolo; Peto, Richard

2009-06-27

Alcohol is an important determinant of the high and fluctuating adult mortality rates in Russia, but cause-specific detail is lacking. Our case-control study investigated the effects of alcohol consumption on male and female cause-specific mortality. In three Russian industrial cities with typical 1990s mortality patterns (Tomsk, Barnaul, Biysk), the addresses of 60,416 residents who had died at ages 15-74 years in 1990-2001 were visited in 2001-05. Family members were present for 50,066 decedents; for 48,557 (97%), the family gave proxy information on the decedents' past alcohol use and on potentially confounding factors. Cases (n=43,082) were those certified as dying from causes we judged beforehand might be substantially affected by alcohol or tobacco; controls were the other 5475 decedents. Case versus control relative risks (RRs; calculated as odds ratios by confounder-adjusted logistic regression) were calculated in ever-drinkers, defining the reference category by two criteria: usual weekly consumption always less than 0.5 half-litre bottles of vodka (or equivalent in total alcohol content) and maximum consumption of spirits in 1 day always less than 0.5 half-litre bottles. Other ever-drinkers were classified by usual weekly consumption into three categories: less than one, one to less than three, and three or more (mean 5.4 [SD 1.4]) bottles of vodka or equivalent. In men, the three causes accounting for the most alcohol-associated deaths were accidents and violence (RR 5.94, 95% CI 5.35-6.59, in the highest consumption category), alcohol poisoning (21.68, 17.94-26.20), and acute ischaemic heart disease other than myocardial infarction (3.04, 2.73-3.39), which includes some misclassified alcohol poisoning. There were significant excesses of upper aerodigestive tract cancer (3.48, 2.84-4.27) and liver cancer (2.11, 1.64-2.70). Another five disease groups had RRs of more than 3.00 in the highest alcohol category: tuberculosis (4.14, 3.44-4.98), pneumonia (3.29, 2.83-3.83), liver disease (6.21, 5.16-7.47), pancreatic disease (6.69, 4.98-9.00), and ill-specified conditions (7.74, 6.48-9.25). Although drinking was less common in women, the RRs associated with it were generally more extreme. After correction for reporting errors, alcohol-associated excesses accounted for 52% of all study deaths at ages 15-54 years (men 8182 [59%] of 13968, women 1565 [33%] of 4751) and 18% of those at 55-74 years (men 3944 [22%] of 17,536, women 1493 [12%] of 12 302). Allowance for under-representation of extreme drinkers would further increase alcohol-associated proportions. Large fluctuations in mortality from these ten strongly alcohol-associated causes were the main determinants of recent fluctuations in overall mortality in the study region and in Russia as a whole. Alcohol-attributable mortality varies by year; in several recent years, alcohol was a cause of more than half of all Russian deaths at ages 15-54 years. Alcohol accounts for most of the large fluctuations in Russian mortality, and alcohol and tobacco account for the large difference in adult mortality between Russia and western Europe. UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, International Agency for Research on Cancer, and European Commission Directorate-General for Research.

Increased mortality associated with elevated carcinoembryonic antigen in insurance applicants.

PubMed

Stout, Robert L; Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Magee, Mark E; Suarez, Luis

2007-01-01

Determine the relationship between the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) value and all-cause mortality in life insurance applicants aged 50 years and over. By use of the Social Security Master Death Index, mortality was examined in 115,590 insurance applicants aged 50 and up for whom blood samples for CEA were submitted to the Clinical Reference Laboratory. Results were stratified by CEA value (<5 ng/mL, 5 to 9.9 ng/mL, 10+ ng/mL), smoking status, and age groups (50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70 years and up). Relative mortality is increased at CEA values between 5 and 9.9 ng/mL and further increased at 10+ ng/mL for all age groups, with the most dramatic increase at the youngest ages. Excess mortality appears to last at least 3 to 4 years after the elevated result. Five-year all-cause mortality in applicants with CEA values of 10+ ng/mL is 25.2% with a mortality ratio relative to those with a CEA <5 ng/mL of 1156%. This study shows that CEA can detect the risk of early excess mortality in life insurance applicants; CEA levels of 5 ng/mL and over may be of concern. CEA testing beginning at age 50 years for life insurance applicants could capture 4.6% of early mortality if the threshold for further evaluation was set at 10 ng/mL. Only 0.4% of all applicants aged 50 and over have CEA values at or above this threshold.

Attributable causes of colorectal cancer in China.

PubMed

Gu, Meng-Jia; Huang, Qiu-Chi; Bao, Cheng-Zhen; Li, Ying-Jun; Li, Xiao-Qin; Ye, Ding; Ye, Zhen-Hua; Chen, Kun; Wang, Jian-Bing

2018-01-05

Colorectal cancer is the 4th common cancer in China. Most colorectal cancers are due to modifiable lifestyle factors, but few studies have provided a systematic evidence-based assessment of the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality attributable to the known risk factors in China. We estimated the population attributable faction (PAF) for each selected risk factor in China, based on the prevalence of exposure around 2000 and relative risks from cohort studies and meta-analyses. Among 245,000 new cases and 139,000 deaths of colorectal cancer in China in 2012, we found that 115,578 incident cases and 63,102 deaths of colorectal cancer were attributable to smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity and dietary factors. Low vegetable intake was the main risk factor for colorectal cancer with a PAF of 17.9%. Physical inactivity was responsible for 8.9% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The remaining factors, including high red and processed meat intake, low fruit intake, alcohol drinking, overweight/obesity and smoking, accounted for 8.6%, 6.4%, 5.4%, 5.3% and 4.9% of colorectal cancer, respectively. Overall, 45.5% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were attributable to the joint effects of these seven risk factors. Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, low vegetable intake, low fruit intake, and high red and processed meat intake were responsible for nearly 46% of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in China in 2012. Our findings could provide a basis for developing guidelines of colorectal cancer prevention and control in China.

Underweight as a risk factor for respiratory death in the Whitehall cohort study: exploring reverse causality using a 45-year follow-up.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Shipley, Martin J; Bell, Joshua A; Brunner, Eric J; Batty, G David; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2016-01-01

Underweight adults have higher rates of respiratory death than the normal weight but it is unclear whether this association is causal or reflects illness-induced weight loss (reverse causality). Evidence from a 45-year follow-up of underweight participants for respiratory mortality in the Whitehall study (N=18 823; 2139 respiratory deaths) suggests that excess risk among the underweight is attributable to reverse causality. The age-adjusted and smoking-adjusted risk was 1.55-fold (95% CI 1.32 to 1.83) higher among underweight compared with normal weight participants, but attenuated in a stepwise manner to 1.14 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.71) after serial exclusions of deaths during the first 5-35 years of follow-up (P(trend)<0.001). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

23 CFR 511.303 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... values are present in the attributes (e.g., speed and travel time are attributes of traffic) that require... means the level at which transportation system performance is unacceptable due to excessive travel times... enable the State to satisfy the provisions for traffic and travel time conditions reporting stated in...

Population-attributable causes of cancer in Korea: obesity and physical inactivity.

PubMed

Park, Sohee; Kim, Yeonju; Shin, Hai-Rim; Lee, Boram; Shin, Aesun; Jung, Kyu-Won; Jee, Sun Ha; Kim, Dong Hyun; Yun, Young Ho; Park, Sue Kyung; Boniol, Mathieu; Boffetta, Paolo

2014-01-01

Changes in lifestyle including obesity epidemic and reduced physical activity influenced greatly to increase the cancer burden in Korea. The purpose of the current study was to perform a systematic assessment of cancers attributable to obesity and physical inactivity in Korea. Gender- and cancer site-specific population-attributable fractions (PAF) were estimated using the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 1992-1995 from a large-scale prospective cohort study, the prevalence of low physical activity in 1989 from a Korean National Health Examination Survey, and pooled relative risk estimates from Korean epidemiological studies. The overall PAF was then estimated using 2009 national cancer incidence data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. Excess body weight was responsible for 1,444 (1.5%) and 2,004 (2.2%) cancer cases among men and women, respectively, in 2009 in Korea. Among men, 6.8% of colorectal, 2.9% of pancreatic, and 16.0% of kidney cancer was attributable to excess body weight. In women, 6.6% of colorectal, 3.9% of pancreatic, 18.7% of kidney, 8.2% of postmenopausal breast, and 32.7% of endometrial cancer was attributable to excess body weight. Low leisure-time physical activity accounted for 8.8% of breast cancer, whereas the PAF for overall cancer was low (0.1% in men, 1.4% in women). Projections suggest that cancers attributable to obesity will increase by 40% in men and 16% in women by 2020. With a significantly increasing overweight and physically inactive population, and increasing incidence of breast and colorectal cancers, Korea faces a large cancer burden attributable to these risk factors. Had the obese population of Korea remained stable, a large portion of obesity-related cancers could have been avoided. Efficient cancer prevention programs that aim to reduce obesity- and physical inactivity-related health problems are essential in Korea.

Population-Attributable Causes of Cancer in Korea: Obesity and Physical Inactivity

PubMed Central

Shin, Hai-Rim; Lee, Boram; Shin, Aesun; Jung, Kyu-Won; Jee, Sun Ha; Kim, Dong Hyun; Yun, Young Ho; Park, Sue Kyung; Boniol, Mathieu; Boffetta, Paolo

2014-01-01

Background Changes in lifestyle including obesity epidemic and reduced physical activity influenced greatly to increase the cancer burden in Korea. The purpose of the current study was to perform a systematic assessment of cancers attributable to obesity and physical inactivity in Korea. Methodology/Principal Findings Gender- and cancer site-specific population-attributable fractions (PAF) were estimated using the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 1992–1995 from a large-scale prospective cohort study, the prevalence of low physical activity in 1989 from a Korean National Health Examination Survey, and pooled relative risk estimates from Korean epidemiological studies. The overall PAF was then estimated using 2009 national cancer incidence data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. Excess body weight was responsible for 1,444 (1.5%) and 2,004 (2.2%) cancer cases among men and women, respectively, in 2009 in Korea. Among men, 6.8% of colorectal, 2.9% of pancreatic, and 16.0% of kidney cancer was attributable to excess body weight. In women, 6.6% of colorectal, 3.9% of pancreatic, 18.7% of kidney, 8.2% of postmenopausal breast, and 32.7% of endometrial cancer was attributable to excess body weight. Low leisure-time physical activity accounted for 8.8% of breast cancer, whereas the PAF for overall cancer was low (0.1% in men, 1.4% in women). Projections suggest that cancers attributable to obesity will increase by 40% in men and 16% in women by 2020. Conclusions/Significance With a significantly increasing overweight and physically inactive population, and increasing incidence of breast and colorectal cancers, Korea faces a large cancer burden attributable to these risk factors. Had the obese population of Korea remained stable, a large portion of obesity-related cancers could have been avoided. Efficient cancer prevention programs that aim to reduce obesity- and physical inactivity-related health problems are essential in Korea. PMID:24722008

Physical activity and all-cause mortality across levels of overall and abdominal adiposity in European men and women: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC).

PubMed

Ekelund, Ulf; Ward, Heather A; Norat, Teresa; Luan, Jian'an; May, Anne M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sharp, Stephen J; Overvad, Kim; Østergaard, Jane Nautrup; Tjønneland, Anne; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Mesrine, Sylvie; Fournier, Agnès; Fagherazzi, Guy; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Li, Kuanrong; Kaaks, Rudolf; Ferrari, Pietro; Licaj, Idlir; Jenab, Mazda; Bergmann, Manuela; Boeing, Heiner; Palli, Domenico; Sieri, Sabina; Panico, Salvatore; Tumino, Rosario; Vineis, Paolo; Peeters, Petra H; Monnikhof, Evelyn; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Quirós, J Ramón; Agudo, Antonio; Sánchez, María-José; Huerta, José María; Ardanaz, Eva; Arriola, Larraitz; Hedblad, Bo; Wirfält, Elisabet; Sund, Malin; Johansson, Mattias; Key, Timothy J; Travis, Ruth C; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Brage, Søren; Wareham, Nicholas J; Riboli, Elio

2015-03-01

The higher risk of death resulting from excess adiposity may be attenuated by physical activity (PA). However, the theoretical number of deaths reduced by eliminating physical inactivity compared with overall and abdominal obesity remains unclear. We examined whether overall and abdominal adiposity modified the association between PA and all-cause mortality and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the years of life gained for these exposures. This was a cohort study in 334,161 European men and women. The mean follow-up time was 12.4 y, corresponding to 4,154,915 person-years. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in the clinic. PA was assessed with a validated self-report instrument. The combined associations between PA, BMI, and WC with mortality were examined with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by center and age group, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, and alcohol intake. Center-specific PAF associated with inactivity, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m²) (>30), and WC (≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm for women) were calculated and combined in random-effects meta-analysis. Life-tables analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy for the exposures. Significant interactions (PA × BMI and PA × WC) were observed, so HRs were estimated within BMI and WC strata. The hazards of all-cause mortality were reduced by 16-30% in moderately inactive individuals compared with those categorized as inactive in different strata of BMI and WC. Avoiding all inactivity would theoretically reduce all-cause mortality by 7.35% (95% CI: 5.88%, 8.83%). Corresponding estimates for avoiding obesity (BMI >30) were 3.66% (95% CI: 2.30%, 5.01%). The estimates for avoiding high WC were similar to those for physical inactivity. The greatest reductions in mortality risk were observed between the 2 lowest activity groups across levels of general and abdominal adiposity, which suggests that efforts to encourage even small increases in activity in inactive individuals may be beneficial to public health.

Morbidity, mortality and economic burden of renal impairment in cardiac intensive care.

PubMed

Chew, D P; Astley, C; Molloy, D; Vaile, J; De Pasquale, C G; Aylward, P

2006-03-01

Moderate to severe impairment of renal function has emerged as a potent risk factor for adverse short- and long-term outcomes among patients presenting with cardiac disease. We sought to define the clinical, late mortality and economic burden of this risk factor among patients presenting to cardiac intensive care. A clinical audit of patients presenting to cardiac intensive care was undertaken between July 2002 and June 2003. All patients presenting with cardiac diagnoses were included in the study. Baseline creatinine levels were assessed in all patients. Late mortality was assessed by the interrogation of the National Death Register. Renal impairment was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2, as calculated by the Modified Diet in Renal Disease formula. In-hospital and late outcomes were compared by Cox proportional hazards modelling, adjusting for known confounders. A matched analysis and attributable risk calculation were undertaken to assess the proportion of late mortality accounted for by impairment of renal function and other known negative prognostic factors. The in-hospital total cost associated with renal impairment was assessed by linear regression. Glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 was evident in 33.0% of this population. Among these patients, in-hospital and late mortality were substantially increased: risk ratio 13.2; 95% CI 3.0-58.1; P < 0.001 and hazard ratio 6.2; 95% CI 3.6-10.7; P < 0.001, respectively. In matched analysis, renal impairment to this level was associated with 42.1% of all the late deaths observed. Paradoxically, patients with renal impairment were more conservatively managed, but their hospitalizations were associated with an excess adjusted in-hospital cost of $A1676. Impaired renal function is associated with a striking clinical and economic burden among patients presenting to cardiac intensive care. As a marker for future risk, renal function accounts for a substantial proportion of the burden of late mortality. The burden of risk suggests a greater potential opportunity for improvement of outcomes through optimisation of therapeutic strategies.

Lung Cancer Mortality (1950–1999) among Eldorado Uranium Workers: A Comparison of Models of Carcinogenesis and Empirical Excess Risk Models

PubMed Central

Eidemüller, Markus; Jacob, Peter; Lane, Rachel S. D.; Frost, Stanley E.; Zablotska, Lydia B.

2012-01-01

Lung cancer mortality after exposure to radon decay products (RDP) among 16,236 male Eldorado uranium workers was analyzed. Male workers from the Beaverlodge and Port Radium uranium mines and the Port Hope radium and uranium refinery and processing facility who were first employed between 1932 and 1980 were followed up from 1950 to 1999. A total of 618 lung cancer deaths were observed. The analysis compared the results of the biologically-based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to the empirical excess risk model. The spontaneous clonal expansion rate of pre-malignant cells was reduced at older ages under the assumptions of the TSCE model. Exposure to RDP was associated with increase in the clonal expansion rate during exposure but not afterwards. The increase was stronger for lower exposure rates. A radiation-induced bystander effect could be a possible explanation for such an exposure response. Results on excess risks were compared to a linear dose-response parametric excess risk model with attained age, time since exposure and dose rate as effect modifiers. In all models the excess relative risk decreased with increasing attained age, increasing time since exposure and increasing exposure rate. Large model uncertainties were found in particular for small exposure rates. PMID:22936975

A review of nasal cancer in furniture manufacturing and woodworking in North Carolina, the United States, and other countries.

PubMed

Imbus, H R; Dyson, W L

1987-09-01

Nasal adenocarcinoma in the High Wycombe furniture industry of England during 1956-1965 had an annual incidence of 500 to 1,000 times greater than that of the general population. Excesses of nasal cancer have also been described in France, Australia, Denmark, Finland, Italy, and Holland. Interestingly, one limited study in Canada revealed no excess, whereas a more recent one showed a slight excess. In contrast to the strikingly large excesses of nasal adenocarcinoma in other countries, there has never been any evidence of similarly large excesses in the US woodworking and furniture industry. Modern manufacturing conditions may not present the same degree of risk of developing nasal cancer as was present in the English furniture manufacturing industry. The incidence of nasal cancer associated with furniture manufacturing in the United States is examined in considerable detail in North Carolina, the leading furniture manufacturing state. Furniture manufacturing in the state began around 1890 and has grown steadily since. Utilizing statistics available from the North Carolina Department of Vital Statistics, the absolute mortality of nasal cancer in North Carolina was calculated from 1964 to 1977. The average mortality was approximately 3.5 times greater in the furniture manufacturing industry than in the general population.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Years of life lost due to influenza-attributable mortality in older adults in the Netherlands: a competing risks approach.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; van Wijhe, Maarten; van Asten, Liselotte; van der Hoek, Wim; Wallinga, Jacco

2018-02-06

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults 60 years of age and older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly age-group specific mortality data for the period 1999/2000 through 2012/13. Burden for age-groups 60-64 through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90) using restricted mean lifetimes survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval:867, 963), followed by 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval:741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial over-estimation of burden, from 3.5% for 60-64 years to 82% for persons aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for accuracy of disease burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years and older. As the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age-groups. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The changing contribution of smoking to educational differences in life expectancy: indirect estimates for Finnish men and women from 1971 to 2010.

PubMed

Martikainen, Pekka; Ho, Jessica Y; Preston, Samuel; Elo, Irma T

2013-03-01

We estimated the contribution of smoking to educational differences in mortality and life expectancy between 1971 and 2010 in Finland. Eight prospective datasets with baseline in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 and each linked to a 5-year mortality follow-up were used. We calculated life expectancy at age 50 years with and without smoking-attributable mortality by education and gender. Estimates of smoking-attributable mortality were based on an indirect method that used lung cancer mortality as a proxy for the impact of smoking on mortality from all other causes. Smoking-attributable deaths constituted about 27% of all male deaths above age 50 years in the early 1970s and 17% in the period 2006-2010; these figures were 1% and 4% among women, respectively. The life expectancy differential between men with basic versus high education increased from 3.4 to 4.7 years between 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. In the absence of smoking, these differences would have been 1.5 and 3.4 years, 1.9 years (55%) and 1.3 years (29%) less than those observed. Among women, educational differentials in life expectancy between the most and least educated increased from 2.5 to 3.0 years. This widening was nearly entirely accounted for by the increasing impact of smoking. Among women the contribution of smoking to educational differences had increased from being negligible in 1971-1975 to 16% in 2006-2010. Among men, the increase in educational differences in mortality in the past decades was driven by factors other than smoking. However, smoking continues to have a major influence on educational differences in mortality among men and its contribution is increasing among women.

Troubling Trends: The Health of America's Next Generation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission To Prevent Infant Mortality, Washington, DC.

Trends during the 1980s are described including high infant mortality, no decline in low birthweight percentages, an increase in the black-white infant mortality gap, more high-risk pregnancies, and inadequate prenatal care. Inadequate progress in reducing infant mortality is attributed in part to the limited technological ability to save…

Mortality in Israel during the Persian Gulf war--initial observations.

PubMed

Danenberg, H D; Lerman, Y; Steinlauf, S; Salomon, A; Zisman, D; Atsmon, J; Slater, P E

1991-01-01

During the 6-week-long 1991 Persian Gulf war, in which the civilian population was subjected to 18 separate missile attacks and the constant threat of nonconventional warfare, crude mortality rates in Israel were no higher than in the previous decade. Although the results are preliminary and need to undergo more sophisticated epidemiologic analysis, it appears that our population was able to tolerate the subacute period of psychological stress without excess mortality.

Preventing large birth size in women with preexisting diabetes mellitus: The benefit of appropriate gestational weight gain.

PubMed

Kim, Shin Y; Sharma, Andrea J; Sappenfield, William; Salihu, Hamisu M

2016-10-01

To estimate the percentage of infants with large birth size attributable to excess gestational weight gain (GWG), independent of prepregnancy body mass index, among mothers with preexisting diabetes mellitus (PDM). We analyzed 2004-2008 Florida linked birth certificate and maternal hospital discharge data of live, term (37-41weeks) singleton deliveries (N=641,857). We calculated prevalence of large-for-gestational age (LGA) (birth weight-for-gestational age≥90th percentile) and macrosomia (birth weight>4500g) by GWG categories (inadequate, appropriate, or excess). We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the relative risk (RR) of large birth size associated with excess compared to appropriate GWG among mothers with PDM. We then estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of large birth size due to excess GWG among mothers with PDM (n=4427). Regardless of diabetes status, half of mothers (51.2%) gained weight in excess of recommendations. Large birth size was higher in infants of mothers with PDM than in infants of mothers without diabetes (28.8% versus 9.4% for LGA, 5.8% versus 0.9% for macrosomia). Among women with PDM, the adjusted RR of having an LGA infant was 1.7 (95% CI 1.5, 1.9) for women with excess GWG compared to those with appropriate gain; the PAF was 27.7% (95% CI 22.0, 33.3). For macrosomia, the adjusted RR associated with excess GWG was 2.1 (95% CI 1.5, 2.9) and the PAF was 38.6% (95% CI 24.9, 52.4). Preventing excess GWG may avert over one-third of macrosomic term infants of mothers with PDM. Effective strategies to prevent excess GWG are needed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of vaccination on influenza mortality in children <5years old in Mexico.

PubMed

Sánchez-Ramos, Evelyn L; Monárrez-Espino, Joel; Noyola, Daniel E

2017-03-01

Influenza is a leading cause of respiratory tract infections among children. In Mexico, influenza vaccination was included in the National Immunization Program since 2004. However, the population health effects of the vaccine on children have not been fully described. Thus, we estimated the impact of influenza immunization in terms of mortality associated with this virus among children younger than 5years of age in Mexico. Mortality rates and years of life lost associated with influenza were estimated using national mortality register data for the period 1998-2012. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortality rates were estimated for all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular events. Influenza-associated mortality was compared between the period prior to introduction of the influenza vaccine as part of the National Immunization Program (1998-2004) and the period thereafter (2004-2012). During the 1998-2012 winter seasons, the average number of all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular deaths attributable to influenza were 1186, 794 and 21, respectively. Influenza-associated mortality was higher prior to the vaccination period than after influenza was included in the immunization program for all-cause (mean 1660 vs. 780) and respiratory (mean 1063 vs. 563) mortality, but no reduction was seen for cardiovascular mortality. The proportion of all-cause and respiratory deaths attributable to influenza was significantly lower in the post-vaccine period compared with the pre-vaccine period (P<0.001), but no reduction was seen in the proportion of cardiovascular deaths. There was an average annual reduction of 66,558years of life lost in the post-vaccine compared with the pre-vaccine period. The introduction of influenza vaccination within the Mexican Immunization Program was associated with a reduction in mortality rates attributable to this virus among children younger than 5years of age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

PubMed

Seaman, R; Mitchell, R; Dundas, R; Leyland, A H; Popham, F

2015-10-16

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy. Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method. Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation. Life expectancy is not systematically lower across the Glasgow population compared to Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, once deprivation is accounted for. This provides further evidence that tackling deprivation in Glasgow would probably reduce the health inequalities that exist between Scottish cities. The change in the amount of unexplained difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis demonstrates the difficulties in comparing socioeconomic deprivation between populations, even within the same country and when applying an established ecological measure. Although the majority of health inequality between Glasgow and other Scottish cities is explained by deprivation, the difference in the amount of unexplained inequality depending on the relative context of deprivation used demonstrates the challenges associated with attributing mortality inequalities to an independent 'place effect'.

Impact of marital status on health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

2017-11-01

The Farr-Bertillon law states that the mortality rate of single and widowed persons is about three times the rate of married people of same age. This excess mortality can be measured with good accuracy for all ages except for young widowers. The reason is that, at least nowadays, very few people become widowed under the age of 30. Here we show that disability data from census records can also be used as a reliable substitute for mortality rates. In fact excess-disability and excess-mortality go hand in hand. Moreover, as there are about ten times more cases of disability than deaths, the disability variable is able to offer more accurate measurements in all cases where the number of deaths is small. This allows a more accurate investigation of the young widower effect; it confirms that, as already suspected from death rate data, there is a huge spike between the ages of 20 and 30. By using disability rates we can also study additional features not accessible using death rate data. For example we can examine the health impact of a change in living place. The observed temporary inflated disability rate confirms what could be expected by invoking the ;Transient Shock; conjecture formuladted by the authors in a previous paper. Finally, in another observation it is shown that the disability rate of newly married persons is higher than for those who have been married for more than one year, a result which comes in confirmation of the ;newly married couple; effect reported in an earlier paper.

Perspectives on differing health outcomes by city: accounting for Glasgow's excess mortality.

PubMed

Fraser, Simon Ds; George, Steve

2015-01-01

Several health outcomes (including mortality) and health-related behaviors are known to be worse in Scotland than in comparable areas of Europe and the United Kingdom. Within Scotland, Greater Glasgow (in West Central Scotland) experiences disproportionately poorer outcomes independent of measurable variation in socioeconomic status and other important determinants. Many reasons for this have been proposed, particularly related to deprivation, inequalities, and variation in health behaviors. The use of models (such as the application of Bradford Hill's viewpoints on causality to the different hypotheses) has provided useful insights on potentially causal mechanisms, with health behaviors and inequalities likely to represent the strongest individual candidates. This review describes the evolution of our understanding of Glasgow's excess mortality, summarizes some of the key work in this area, and provides some suggestions for future areas of exploration. In the context of demographic change, the experience in Glasgow is an important example of the complexity that frequently lies behind observed variations in health outcomes within and between populations. A comprehensive explanation of Glasgow's excess mortality may continue to remain elusive, but is likely to lie in a complex and difficult-to-measure interplay of health determinants acting at different levels in society throughout the life course. Lessons learned from the detailed examination of different potentially causative determinants in Scotland may provide useful methodological insights that may be applied in other settings. Ongoing efforts to unravel the causal mechanisms are needed to inform public health efforts to reduce health inequalities and improve outcomes in Scotland.

Increased risk of death immediately after losing a spouse: Cause-specific mortality following widowhood in Norway.

PubMed

Brenn, Tormod; Ytterstad, Elinor

2016-08-01

This paper examines the short-term risk of cause-specific death following widowhood. We followed all individuals registered as married in Norway in 1975 for marital status and mortality until 2006. Widowed individuals were followed for mortality for 7years following widowhood. Causes of death were categorized into five cause-groups. Life tables were used in survival analyses. Deaths among the widowed were most frequent in the week following widowhood. In this week and compared to married individuals, there were more deaths including those from malignant cancer in men (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.51; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.89), from external causes in men (HR=3.64; 95% CI: 2.01, 5.28), and from respiratory diseases (HR=2.18; 95% CI: 1.52, 2.84 in men and HR=3.18; 95% CI: 2.26, 4.09 in women). A majority of respiratory deaths were from pneumonia. Thereafter excess mortality among the widowed dropped gradually. Although these numbers stabilized, they were still elevated in year 7. Excess mortality was particularly high in the youngest age group considered (55-64years) and decreased with age, though more so in men than in women. Only a few more widowed individuals than expected died of a condition in the same cause-group as their spouses. A novel finding was that excess deaths in the week following widowhood also were from cancer and respiratory diseases. Men in the youngest age group seemed most vulnerable. Prevention should be considered directly after the death of a spouse, and measures should be aimed at virtually all causes of death. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence of influenza‐associated mortality and hospitalizations in Argentina during 2002–2009

PubMed Central

Azziz‐Baumgartner, Eduardo; Cabrera, Ana María; Cheng, Po‐Yung; Garcia, Enio; Kusznierz, Gabriela; Calli, Rogelio; Baez, Clarisa; Buyayisqui, María Pía; Poyard, Eleonora; Pérez, Emanuel; Basurto‐Davila, Ricardo; Palekar, Rakhee; Oliva, Otavio; Alencar, Airlane Pereira; de Souza, Regilo; dos Santos, Thais; Shay, David K.; Widdowson, Marc‐Alain; Breese, Joseph; Echenique, Horacio

2013-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Azziz‐Baumgartner et al. (2012) Incidence of influenza‐associated mortality and hospitalizations in Argentina during 2002–2009. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/irv.12022. Background  We estimated rates of influenza‐associated deaths and hospitalizations in Argentina, a country that recommends annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk of complications from influenza illness. Methods  We identified hospitalized persons and deaths in persons diagnosed with pneumonia and influenza (P&I, ICD‐10 codes J10‐J18) and respiratory and circulatory illness (R&C, codes I00‐I99 and J00‐J99). We defined the influenza season as the months when the proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza exceeded the annual median. We used hospitalizations and deaths during the influenza off‐season to estimate, using linear regression, the number of excess deaths that occurred during the influenza season. To explore whether excess mortality varied by sex and whether people were age <65 or ≥65 years, we used Poisson regression of the influenza‐associated rates. Results  During 2002–2009, 2411 P&I and 8527 R&C mean excess deaths occurred annually from May to October. If all of these excess deaths were associated with influenza, the influenza‐associated mortality rate was 6/100 000 person‐years (95% CI 4–8/100 000 person‐years for P&I and 21/100 000 person‐years (95% CI 12–31/100 000 person‐years) for R&C. During 2005–2008, we identified an average of 7868 P&I excess hospitalizations and 22 994 R&C hospitalizations per year, resulting in an influenza‐associated hospitalization rate of 2/10 000 person‐years (95% CI 1–3/10 000 person‐years) for P&I and 6/10 000 person‐years (95% CI 3–8/10 000 person‐years) for R&C. Conclusion  Our findings suggest that annual rates of influenza‐associated hospitalizations and death in Argentina were substantial and similar to neighboring Brazil. PMID:23210456

Anorexia nervosa in males: excess mortality and psychiatric co-morbidity in 609 Swedish in-patients.

PubMed

Kask, J; Ramklint, M; Kolia, N; Panagiotakos, D; Ekbom, A; Ekselius, L; Papadopoulos, F C

2017-06-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a psychiatric disorder with high mortality. A retrospective register study of 609 males who received hospitalized care for AN in Sweden between 1973 and 2010 was performed. The standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and Cox regression-derived hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated as measures of mortality. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated to compare the mortality rates in patients with AN and controls both with and without psychiatric diagnoses. The SMR for all causes of death was 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-5.3]. For those patients with psychiatric co-morbidities, the SMR for all causes of death was 9.1 (95% CI 6.6-12.2), and for those without psychiatric co-morbidity, the SMR was 1.6 (95% CI 0.9-2.7). For the group of patients with alcohol use disorder, the SMR for natural causes of death was 11.5 (95% CI 5.0-22.7), and that for unnatural causes was 35.5 (95% CI 17.7-63.5). The HRs confirmed the increased mortality for AN patients with psychiatric co-morbidities, even after adjusting for confounders. The IRRs revealed no significant difference in mortality patterns between the AN patients with psychiatric co-morbidity and the controls with psychiatric diagnoses, with the exceptions of alcohol use disorder and neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders, which seemed to confer a negative synergistic effect on mortality. Mortality in male AN patients was significantly elevated compared with the general population among only the patients with psychiatric co-morbidities. Specifically, the presence of alcohol and other substance use disorders was associated with more profound excess mortality.

Excess mortality among 10-year survivors of classical Hodgkin lymphoma in adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Xavier, Ana C; Epperla, Narendranath; Taub, Jeffrey W; Costa, Luciano J

2018-02-01

Adolescents and young adults (AYA) surviving classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) risk long term fatal treatment-related toxicities. We utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program to compare excess mortality rate (EMR-observed minus expected mortality) for 10-year survivors of AYA cHL diagnosed in 1973-1992 and 1993-2003 eras. The 15-year EMR reduced from 4.88% to 2.19% while the 20-year EMR reduced from 9.46% to 4.07% between eras. Survivors of stages 1-2 had lower EMR than survivors of stages 3-4 cHL in the 1993-2003 but not in the 1973-1992 era. There was an overall decline in risk of death between 10 and 15 years from diagnosis, driven mostly by second neoplasms and cardiovascular mortality. Despite reduction in fatal second neoplasms and cardiovascular disease with more current therapy, long term survivors of AYA cHL still have a higher risk of death than the general population highlighting the need for safer therapies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Alcohol Consumption and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality in New Mexico and the United States, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Tomedi, Laura E; Roeber, Jim; Landen, Michael

Current chronic liver disease (CLD) mortality surveillance methods may not adequately capture data on all causes of CLD mortality. The objective of this study was to calculate and compare CLD death rates in New Mexico and the United States by using both an expanded definition of CLD and estimates of the fractional impact of alcohol on CLD deaths. We defined CLD mortality as deaths due to alcoholic liver disease, cirrhosis, viral hepatitis, and other liver conditions. We estimated alcohol-attributable CLD deaths by using national and state alcohol-attributable fractions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application. We classified causes of CLD death as being alcohol-attributable, non-alcohol-attributable, or hepatitis C. We calculated average annual age-adjusted CLD death rates during five 3-year periods from 1999 through 2013, and we stratified those rates by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. By cause of death, CLD death rates were highest for alcohol-attributable CLD. By sex and race/ethnicity, CLD death rates per 100 000 population increased from 1999-2001 to 2011-2013 among American Indian men in New Mexico (67.4-90.6) and the United States (38.9-49.4), American Indian women in New Mexico (48.4-63.0) and the United States (27.5-39.5), Hispanic men in New Mexico (48.6-52.0), Hispanic women in New Mexico (16.9-24.0) and the United States (12.8-13.1), non-Hispanic white men in New Mexico (17.4-21.3) and the United States (15.9-18.4), and non-Hispanic white women in New Mexico (9.7-11.6) and the United States (7.6-9.7). CLD death rates decreased among Hispanic men in the United States (30.5-27.4). An expanded CLD definition and alcohol-attributable fractions can be used to create comprehensive data on CLD mortality. When stratified by CLD cause and demographic characteristics, these data may help states and jurisdictions improve CLD prevention programs.

Population-Wide Impact of Non-Hip Non-Vertebral Fractures on Mortality.

PubMed

Tran, Thach; Bliuc, Dana; van Geel, Tineke; Adachi, Jonathan D; Berger, Claudie; van den Bergh, Joop; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet; Goltzman, David; Hanley, David A; Josse, Robert G; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Kovacs, Christopher S; Langsetmo, Lisa; Prior, Jerilynn C; Nguyen, Tuan V; Center, Jacqueline R

2017-09-01

Data on long-term consequences of non-hip non-vertebral (NHNV) fractures, accounting for approximately two-thirds of all fragility fractures, are scanty. Our study aimed to quantify the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality. The national population-based prospective cohort study (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) included 5526 community dwelling women and 2163 men aged 50 years or older followed from July 1995 to September 2013. Population impact number was used to quantify the average number of people for whom one death would be attributable to fracture and case impact number to quantify the number of deaths out of which one would be attributable to a fracture. There were 1370 fragility fractures followed by 296 deaths in women (mortality rate: 3.49; 95% CI, 3.11 to 3.91), and 302 fractures with 92 deaths in men (5.05; 95% CI, 4.12 to 6.20). NHNV fractures accounted for three-quarters of fractures. In women, the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality was greater than that of hip and vertebral fractures because of the greater number of NHNV fractures. Out of 800 women, one death was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one death in 2000 women attributable to hip or vertebral fracture. Similarly, out of 15 deaths in women, one was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one in over 40 deaths for hip or vertebral fracture. The impact of forearm fractures (ie, one death in 2400 women and one out of 42 deaths in women attributable to forearm fracture) was similar to that of hip, vertebral, or rib fractures. Similar, albeit not significant, results were noted for men. The study highlights the important contribution of NHNV fractures on mortality because many NHNV fracture types, except for the most distal fractures, have serious adverse consequences that affect a significant proportion of the population. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed Central

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate. PMID:2269245

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-07-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate.

Weight Discrimination and Risk of Mortality

PubMed Central

Sutin, Angelina R.; Stephan, Yannick; Terracciano, Antonio

2015-01-01

Discrimination based on weight is a stressful social experience linked to declines in physical and mental health. We examine whether this harmful association extends to risk of mortality. Participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; N=13,692) and the Midlife in the United States Study (MIDUS; N=5,079) reported on discriminatory experiences and attributed those experiences to personal characteristics, including weight. Weight discrimination was associated with a nearly 60% increased mortality risk in both HRS (HR=1.57, 95% CI=1.34-1.84) and MIDUS (HR=1.59, 95% CI=1.09-2.31) that was not accounted for by common physical and psychological risk factors. The association between weight discrimination and mortality was generally stronger than for other attributions for discrimination. In addition to poor health outcomes, weight discrimination may shorten life expectancy. PMID:26420442