Why is seed production so variable among individuals? A ten-year study with oaks reveals the importance of soil environment.

PubMed

Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Aponte, Cristina; García, Luis V; Padilla-Díaz, Carmen M; Marañón, Teodoro

2014-01-01

Mast-seeding species exhibit not only a large inter-annual variability in seed production but also considerable variability among individuals within the same year. However, very little is known about the causes and consequences for population dynamics of this potentially large between-individual variability. Here, we quantified seed production over ten consecutive years in two Mediterranean oak species - the deciduous Quercus canariensis and the evergreen Q. suber - that coexist in forests of southern Spain. First, we calibrated likelihood models to identify which abiotic and biotic variables best explain the magnitude (hereafter seed productivity) and temporal variation of seed production at the individual level (hereafter CVi), and infer whether reproductive effort results from the available soil resources for the plant or is primarily determined by selectively favoured strategies. Second, we explored the contribution of between-individual variability in seed production as a potential mechanism of satiation for predispersal seed predators. We found that Q. canariensis trees inhabiting moister and more fertile soils were more productive than those growing in more resource-limited sites. Regarding temporal variation, individuals of the two studied oak species inhabiting these resource-rich environments also exhibited larger values of CVi. Interestingly, we detected a satiating effect on granivorous insects at the tree level in Q. suber, which was evident in those years where between-individual variability in acorn production was higher. These findings suggest that individual seed production (both in terms of seed productivity and inter-annual variability) is strongly dependent on soil resource heterogeneity (at least for one of the two studied oak species) with potential repercussions for recruitment and population dynamics. However, other external factors (such as soil heterogeneity in pathogen abundance) or certain inherent characteristics of the tree might be also involved in this process.

Nonlinearities, scale-dependence, and individualism of boreal forest trees to climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolken, J. M.; Mann, D. H.; Grant, T. A., III; Lloyd, A. H.; Hollingsworth, T. N.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the climate-growth relationships of trees are complicated by the nonlinearity and variability of these responses through space and time. Furthermore, trees growing at the same site may exhibit opposing growth responses to climate, a phenomenon termed growth divergence. To date the majority of dendrochronological studies in Interior Alaska have involved white spruce growing at treeline, even though black spruce is the most abundant tree species. Although changing climate-growth relationships have been observed in black spruce, there is little known about the multivariate responses of individual trees to temperature and precipitation and whether or not black spruce exhibits growth divergences similar to those documented for white spruce. To evaluate the occurrence of growth divergences in black spruce, we collected cores from trees growing on a steep, north-facing toposequence having a gradient in environmental parameters. Our overall goal was to assess how the climate-growth relationships of black spruce change over space and time. Specifically, we evaluated how topography influences the climate-growth relationships of black spruce and if the growth responses to climate are homogeneous. At the site-level most trees responded negatively to temperature and positively to precipitation, while at the tree-level black spruce exhibited heterogenous growth responses to climate that varied in both space (i.e., between sites) and time (i.e., seasonally and annually). There was a dominant response-type at each site, but there was also considerable variability in the proportion of trees exhibiting each response-type combination. Even in a climatically extreme setting like Alaska's boreal forest, tree responses to climate variability are spatially and temporally complex, as well as highly nonlinear.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

Temporal variability of marine debris deposition at Tern Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Agustin, Alyssa E; Merrifield, Mark A; Potemra, James T; Morishige, Carey

2015-12-15

A twenty-two year record of marine debris collected on Tern Island is used to characterize the temporal variability of debris deposition at a coral atoll in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Debris deposition tends to be episodic, without a significant relationship to local forcing processes associated with winds, sea level, waves, and proximity to the Subtropical Convergence Zone. The General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment is used to estimate likely debris pathways for Tern Island. The majority of modeled arrivals come from the northeast following prevailing trade winds and surface currents, with trajectories indicating the importance of the convergence zone, or garbage patch, in the North Pacific High region. Although debris deposition does not generally exhibit a significant seasonal cycle, some debris types contain considerable 3 cycle/yr variability that is coherent with wind and surface pressure over a broad region north of Tern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of sediment size and biostratinomy on the development of biofilms in recent avian vertebrate remains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Joseph E.; Lenczewski, Melissa E.; Clawson, Steven R.; Warnock, Jonathan P.

2017-04-01

Microscopic soft tissues have been identified in fossil vertebrate remains collected from various lithologies. However, the diagenetic mechanisms to preserve such tissues have remained elusive. While previous studies have described infiltration of biofilms in Haversian and Volkmann’s canals, biostratinomic alteration (e.g., trampling), and iron derived from hemoglobin as playing roles in the preservation processes, the influence of sediment texture has not previously been investigated. This study uses a Kolmogorov Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit test to explore the influence of biostratinomic variability and burial media against the infiltration of biofilms in bone samples. Controlled columns of sediment with bone samples were used to simulate burial and subsequent groundwater flow. Sediments used in this study include clay-, silt-, and sand-sized particles modeled after various fluvial facies commonly associated with fossil vertebrates. Extant limb bone samples obtained from Gallus gallus domesticus (Domestic Chicken) buried in clay-rich sediment exhibit heavy biofilm infiltration, while bones buried in sands and silts exhibit moderate levels. Crushed bones exhibit significantly lower biofilm infiltration than whole bone samples. Strong interactions between biostratinomic alteration and sediment size are also identified with respect to biofilm development. Sediments modeling crevasse splay deposits exhibit considerable variability; whole-bone crevasse splay samples exhibit higher frequencies of high-level biofilm infiltration, and crushed-bone samples in modeled crevasse splay deposits display relatively high frequencies of low-level biofilm infiltration. These results suggest that sediment size, depositional setting, and biostratinomic condition play key roles in biofilm infiltration in vertebrate remains, and may influence soft tissue preservation in fossil vertebrates.

Nonlinear Dynamics in Viscoelastic Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majmudar, Trushant; Varagnat, Matthieu; McKinley, Gareth

2008-11-01

Instabilities in free surface continuous jets of non-Newtonian fluids, although relevant for many industrial processes, remain poorly understood in terms of fundamental fluid dynamics. Inviscid, and viscous Newtonian jets have been studied in considerable detail, both theoretically and experimentally. Instability in viscous jets leads to regular periodic coiling of the jet, which exhibits a non-trivial frequency dependence with the height of the fall. Here we present a systematic study of the effect of viscoelasticity on the dynamics of continuous jets of worm-like micellar surfactant solutions of varying viscosities and elasticities. We observe complex nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics of the jet, and uncover a transition from periodic to quasi-periodic to a multi-frequency, broad-spectrum dynamics. Beyond this regime, the jet dynamics smoothly crosses over to exhibit the ``leaping shampoo'' or the Kaye effect. We examine different dynamical regimes in terms of scaling variables, which depend on the geometry (dimensionless height), kinematics (dimensionless flow rate), and the fluid properties (elasto-gravity number) and present a regime map of the dynamics of the jet in terms of these dimensionless variables.

Nonlinear Dynamics in Viscoelastic Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majmudar, Trushant; Varagnat, Matthieu; McKinley, Gareth

2009-03-01

Instabilities in free surface continuous jets of non-Newtonian fluids, although relevant for many industrial processes, remain poorly understood in terms of fundamental fluid dynamics. Inviscid, and viscous Newtonian jets have been studied in considerable detail, both theoretically and experimentally. Instability in viscous jets leads to regular periodic coiling of the jet, which exhibits a non-trivial frequency dependence with the height of the fall. Here we present a systematic study of the effect of viscoelasticity on the dynamics of continuous jets of worm-like micellar surfactant solutions of varying viscosities and elasticities. We observe complex nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics of the jet, and uncover a transition from periodic to quasi-periodic to a multi-frequency, broad-spectrum dynamics. Beyond this regime, the jet dynamics smoothly crosses over to exhibit the ``leaping shampoo'' or the Kaye effect. We examine different dynamical regimes in terms of scaling variables, which depend on the geometry (dimensionless height), kinematics (dimensionless flow rate), and the fluid properties (elasto-gravity number) and present a regime map of the dynamics of the jet in terms of these dimensionless variables.

Entropy, Ergodicity, and Stem Cell Multipotency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridden, Sonya J.; Chang, Hannah H.; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.; MacArthur, Ben D.

2015-11-01

Populations of mammalian stem cells commonly exhibit considerable cell-cell variability. However, the functional role of this diversity is unclear. Here, we analyze expression fluctuations of the stem cell surface marker Sca1 in mouse hematopoietic progenitor cells using a simple stochastic model and find that the observed dynamics naturally lie close to a critical state, thereby producing a diverse population that is able to respond rapidly to environmental changes. We propose an information-theoretic interpretation of these results that views cellular multipotency as an instance of maximum entropy statistical inference.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

An analysis of dental development in Pleistocene Homo using skeletal growth and chronological age.

PubMed

Šešelj, Maja

2017-07-01

This study takes a new approach to interpreting dental development in Pleistocene Homo in comparison with recent modern humans. As rates of dental development and skeletal growth are correlated given age in modern humans, using age and skeletal growth in tandem yields more accurate dental development estimates. Here, I apply these models to fossil Homo to obtain more individualized predictions and interpretations of their dental development relative to recent modern humans. Proportional odds logistic regression models based on three recent modern human samples (N = 181) were used to predict permanent mandibular tooth development scores in five Pleistocene subadults: Homo erectus/ergaster, Neanderthals, and anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Explanatory variables include a skeletal growth indicator (i.e., diaphyseal femoral length), and chronological age. AMHs Lagar Velho 1 and Qafzeh 10 share delayed incisor development, but exhibit considerable idiosyncratic variation within and across tooth types, relative to each other and to the reference samples. Neanderthals Dederiyeh 1 and Le Moustier 1 exhibit delayed incisor coupled with advanced molar development, but differences are reduced when femoral diaphysis length is considered. Dental development in KNM-WT 15,000 Homo erectus/ergaster, while advanced for his age, almost exactly matches the predictions once femoral length is included in the models. This study provides a new interpretation of dental development in KNM-WT 15000 as primarily reflecting his faster rates of skeletal growth. While the two AMH specimens exhibit considerable individual variation, the Neanderthals exhibit delayed incisor development early and advanced molar development later in ontogeny. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tensile and compressive behavior of Borsic/aluminum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herakovich, C. T.; Davis, J. G., Jr.; Viswanathan, C. N.

1977-01-01

The results of an experimental investigation of the mechanical behavior of Borsic/aluminum are presented. Composite laminates were tested in tension and compression for monotonically increasing load and also for variable loading cycles in which the maximum load was increased in each successive cycle. It is shown that significant strain-hardening, and corresponding increase in yield stress, is exhibited by the metal matrix laminates. For matrix dominated laminates, the current yield stress is essentially identical to the previous maximum stress, and unloading is essentially linear with large permanent strains after unloading. For laminates with fiber dominated behavior, the yield stress increases with increase in the previous maximum stress, but the increase in yield stress does not keep pace with the previous maximum stress. These fiber dominated laminates exhibit smaller nonlinear strains, reversed nonlinear behavior during unloading, and smaller permanent strains after unloading. Compression results from sandwich beams and flat coupons are shown to differ considerably. Results from beam specimens tend to exhibit higher values for modulus, yield stress, and strength.

Feature-based and statistical methods for analyzing the Deepwater Horizon oil spill with AVIRIS imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rand, R.S.; Clark, R.N.; Livo, K.E.

2011-01-01

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill covered a very large geographical area in the Gulf of Mexico creating potentially serious environmental impacts on both marine life and the coastal shorelines. Knowing the oil's areal extent and thickness as well as denoting different categories of the oil's physical state is important for assessing these impacts. High spectral resolution data in hyperspectral imagery (HSI) sensors such as Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) provide a valuable source of information that can be used for analysis by semi-automatic methods for tracking an oil spill's areal extent, oil thickness, and oil categories. However, the spectral behavior of oil in water is inherently a highly non-linear and variable phenomenon that changes depending on oil thickness and oil/water ratios. For certain oil thicknesses there are well-defined absorption features, whereas for very thin films sometimes there are almost no observable features. Feature-based imaging spectroscopy methods are particularly effective at classifying materials that exhibit specific well-defined spectral absorption features. Statistical methods are effective at classifying materials with spectra that exhibit a considerable amount of variability and that do not necessarily exhibit well-defined spectral absorption features. This study investigates feature-based and statistical methods for analyzing oil spills using hyperspectral imagery. The appropriate use of each approach is investigated and a combined feature-based and statistical method is proposed.

Hierarchy in factors affecting fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, D.J.; Miranda, L.E.

2012-01-01

River-floodplain ecosystems offer some of the most diverse and dynamic environments in the world. Accordingly, floodplain habitats harbor diverse fish assemblages. Fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes may be influenced by multiple variables operating on disparate scales, and these variables may exhibit a hierarchical organization depending on whether one variable governs another. In this study, we examined the interaction between primary variables descriptive of floodplain lake large-scale features, suites of secondary variables descriptive of water quality and primary productivity, and a set of tertiary variables descriptive of fish biodiversity across a range of floodplain lakes in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Mississippi and Arkansas (USA). Lakes varied considerably in their representation of primary, secondary, and tertiary variables. Multivariate direct gradient analyses indicated that lake maximum depth and the percentage of agricultural land surrounding a lake were the most important factors controlling variation in suites of secondary and tertiary variables, followed to a lesser extent by lake surface area. Fish biodiversity was generally greatest in large, deep lakes with lower proportions of watershed agricultural land. Our results may help foster a holistic approach to floodplain lake management and suggest the framework for a feedback model wherein primary variables can be manipulated for conservation and restoration purposes and secondary and tertiary variables can be used to monitor the success of such efforts. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Factors affecting fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Dembkowski, Daniel J.

2012-01-01

River-floodplain ecosystems offer some of the most diverse and dynamic environments in the world. Accordingly, floodplain habitats harbor diverse fish assemblages. Fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes may be influenced by multiple variables operating on disparate scales, and these variables may exhibit a hierarchical organization depending on whether one variable governs another. In this study, we examined the interaction between primary variables descriptive of floodplain lake large-scale features, suites of secondary variables descriptive of water quality and primary productivity, and a set of tertiary variables descriptive of fish biodiversity across a range of floodplain lakes in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Mississippi and Arkansas (USA). Lakes varied considerably in their representation of primary, secondary, and tertiary variables. Multivariate direct gradient analyses indicated that lake maximum depth and the percentage of agricultural land surrounding a lake were the most important factors controlling variation in suites of secondary and tertiary variables, followed to a lesser extent by lake surface area. Fish biodiversity was generally greatest in large, deep lakes with lower proportions of watershed agricultural land. Our results may help foster a holistic approach to floodplain lake management and suggest the framework for a feedback model wherein primary variables can be manipulated for conservation and restoration purposes and secondary and tertiary variables can be used to monitor the success of such efforts.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Spatial and temporal variability of microgeographic genetic structure in white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Smith, Michael H.; Chesser, Ronald K.

1997-01-01

Techniques are described that define contiguous genetic subpopulations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) based on the spatial dispersion of 4,749 individuals that possessed discrete character values (alleles or genotypes) during each of 6 years (1974-1979). White-tailed deer were not uniformly distributed in space, but exhibited considerable spatial genetic structuring. Significant non-random clusters of individuals were documented during each year based on specific alleles and genotypes at the Sdh locus. Considerable temporal variation was observed in the position and genetic composition of specific clusters, which reflected changes in allele frequency in small geographic areas. The position of clusters did not consistently correspond with traditional management boundaries based on major discontinuities in habitat (swamp versus upland) and hunt compartments that were defined by roads and streams. Spatio-temporal stability of observed genetic contiguous clusters was interpreted relative to method and intensity of harvest, movements, and breeding ecology.

Explanatory characteristics for nutrient concentrations and loads in the Sava River Catchment and cross-regionally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levi, L.; Cvetkovic, V.; Destouni, G.

2015-12-01

This study compiles estimates of waterborne nutrient concentrations and loads in the Sava River Catchment (SRC). Based on this compilation, we investigate hotspots of nutrient inputs and retention along the river, as well as concentration and load correlations with river discharge and various human drivers of excess nutrient inputs to the SRC. For cross-regional assessment and possible generalization, we also compare corresponding results between the SRC and the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB). In the SRC, one small incremental subcatchment, which is located just downstream of Zagreb and has the highest population density among the SRC subcatchments, is identified as a major hotspot for net loading (input minus retention) of both total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) to the river and through it to downstream areas of the SRC. The other SRC subcatchments exhibit relatively similar characteristics with smaller net nutrient loading. The annual loads of both TN and TP along the Sava River exhibit dominant temporal variability with considerably higher correlation with annual river discharge (R2 = 0.51 and 0.28, respectively) than that of annual average nutrient concentrations (R2 = 0.0 versus discharge for both TN and TP). Nutrient concentrations exhibit instead dominant spatial variability with relatively high correlation with population density among the SRC subcatchments (R2=0.43-0.64). These SRC correlation characteristics compare well with corresponding ones for the BSDB, even though the two regions are quite different in their hydroclimatic, agricultural and wastewater treatment conditions. Such cross-regional consistency in dominant variability type and explanatory catchment characteristics may be a useful generalization basis, worthy of further investigation, for at least first-order estimation of nutrient concentration and load conditions in less data-rich regions.

Observations and Models of Highly Intermittent Phytoplankton Distributions

PubMed Central

Mandal, Sandip; Locke, Christopher; Tanaka, Mamoru; Yamazaki, Hidekatsu

2014-01-01

The measurement of phytoplankton distributions in ocean ecosystems provides the basis for elucidating the influences of physical processes on plankton dynamics. Technological advances allow for measurement of phytoplankton data to greater resolution, displaying high spatial variability. In conventional mathematical models, the mean value of the measured variable is approximated to compare with the model output, which may misinterpret the reality of planktonic ecosystems, especially at the microscale level. To consider intermittency of variables, in this work, a new modelling approach to the planktonic ecosystem is applied, called the closure approach. Using this approach for a simple nutrient-phytoplankton model, we have shown how consideration of the fluctuating parts of model variables can affect system dynamics. Also, we have found a critical value of variance of overall fluctuating terms below which the conventional non-closure model and the mean value from the closure model exhibit the same result. This analysis gives an idea about the importance of the fluctuating parts of model variables and about when to use the closure approach. Comparisons of plot of mean versus standard deviation of phytoplankton at different depths, obtained using this new approach with real observations, give this approach good conformity. PMID:24787740

The Interplay of Internal and Forced Modes of Hadley Cell Expansion: Lessons from the Global Warming Hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, D. J.; Siler, N.; Xie, S. P.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells show a robust shift poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we us a joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of Hadley Cell variability: (i) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (ii) an internal mode, which identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation with a global climate model. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the TOA radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is found to be essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, Dillon J.; Siler, Nicholas; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-09-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

An oxide dispersion strengthened Ni-W-Al alloy with superior high temperature strength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glasgow, T. K.

1976-01-01

An experimental oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloy, WAZ-D, derived from the WAZ-20 composition was produced by the mechanical alloying process. Cast WAZ-20 is strengthened by both a high refractory metal content, and 70 volume percent of gamma prime. The ODS alloy WAZ-D was responsive to variables of alloy content, of attritor processing, of consolidation by extrusion, and of heat treatment. The best material produced had large highly elongated grains. It exhibited tensile strengths generally superior to a comparable cast alloy. The ODS alloy exhibited high temperature stress rupture life considerably superior to any known cast superalloy. Tensile and rupture ductility were low, as was intermediate temperature rupture life. Very low creep rates were noted and some specimens failed with essentially no third stage creep. Also the benefit derived from the oxide dispersion, far out-weighed that from the elongated microstructure alone.

The Uranian bow shock - Voyager 2 inbound observations of a high Mach number shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagenal, Fran; Belcher, John W.; Sittler, Edward C., Jr.; Lepping, Ronald P.

1987-01-01

The Voyager 2 magnetometer and plasma detector measured a high Mach number, high beta bow shock on the dayside of the Uranian magnetosphere. Although the average conditions on either side of the shock are consistent with the Rankine-Hugoniot (MHD) relations for a stationary, quasi-perpendicular shock, the data revealed both detailed structure in the transition region as well as considerable variability in the downstream magnetosheath plasma. The bulk plasma parameters and the magnetic field exhibited some of the characteristics of a supercritical shock: an overshoot followed by damped oscillations downstream, consistent with recent theoretical models of high Mach number quasi-perpendicular shocks.

Cost drivers and resource allocation in military health care systems.

PubMed

Fulton, Larry; Lasdon, Leon S; McDaniel, Reuben R

2007-03-01

This study illustrates the feasibility of incorporating technical efficiency considerations in the funding of military hospitals and identifies the primary drivers for hospital costs. Secondary data collected for 24 U.S.-based Army hospitals and medical centers for the years 2001 to 2003 are the basis for this analysis. Technical efficiency was measured by using data envelopment analysis; subsequently, efficiency estimates were included in logarithmic-linear cost models that specified cost as a function of volume, complexity, efficiency, time, and facility type. These logarithmic-linear models were compared against stochastic frontier analysis models. A parsimonious, three-variable, logarithmic-linear model composed of volume, complexity, and efficiency variables exhibited a strong linear relationship with observed costs (R(2) = 0.98). This model also proved reliable in forecasting (R(2) = 0.96). Based on our analysis, as much as $120 million might be reallocated to improve the United States-based Army hospital performance evaluated in this study.

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Spatial and temporal variability of hyperspectral signatures of terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. F.; Perovich, D. K.; Koenig, G. G.

2008-04-01

Electromagnetic signatures of terrain exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity on a range of scales as well as considerable temporal variability. A statistical characterization of the spatial heterogeneity and spatial scaling algorithms of terrain electromagnetic signatures are required to extrapolate measurements to larger scales. Basic terrain elements including bare soil, grass, deciduous, and coniferous trees were studied in a quasi-laboratory setting using instrumented test sites in Hanover, NH and Yuma, AZ. Observations were made using a visible and near infrared spectroradiometer (350 - 2500 nm) and hyperspectral camera (400 - 1100 nm). Results are reported illustrating: i) several difference scenes; ii) a terrain scene time series sampled over an annual cycle; and iii) the detection of artifacts in scenes. A principal component analysis indicated that the first three principal components typically explained between 90 and 99% of the variance of the 30 to 40-channel hyperspectral images. Higher order principal components of hyperspectral images are useful for detecting artifacts in scenes.

Von recklinghausens disease: a series of four cases with variable expression.

PubMed

Arun, K P; Thomas Joseph, P; Jaishankar, H P; Abhinethra, M S

2015-03-01

Though neurofibromatosis type I (NFI) is a fairly common condition, it has a variable expressivity and penetrance. Here we present a series of cases with striking differences in the presentation especially in the oral cavity. NFI, also known as von Recklinghausen's neurofibromatosis, is an autosomal dominantly inherited neurogenetic disorder affecting 1:3000 newborn (Bongiorno et al., Oral Dis 12:125-129, 2006). About 50 % of NFI patients have no family history of the disease. There is no prevalence for gender or race in NFI. Expressivity in NFI is tremendously variable, but subtle phenotypic patterns may exist within subgroups of affected patients. Furthermore, 50 % of cases are sporadic and arise from germ cell mutation (Bongiorno et al., Oral Dis 12:125-129, 2006). The precise constellation of findings in any one individual is extremely variable, both within a family and between different families (Batsakis, Tumors of the head and neck: clinical and pathological considerations, 2nd edn. Williams and Wilkins, Baltimore, pp 313-333, 1979). Only 4-7 % of patients affected by neurofibromatosis exhibit oral manifestations (Güneri et al., Turk J Pediatr 48(2):155-158, 2006).

Relationships between environmental conditions and the morphological variability of planktonic testate amoeba in four neotropical floodplains.

PubMed

Arrieira, Rodrigo Leite; Schwind, Leilane Talita Fatoreto; Joko, Ciro Yoshio; Alves, Geziele Mucio; Velho, Luiz Felipe Machado; Lansac-Tôha, Fábio Amodêo

2016-10-01

Planktonic testate amoebae in floodplains exhibit a broad-range of morphological variability. The variation size is already known, but it is necessary to know how this is for morphological variables. This study aimed to identify the relationships between testate amoebae morphology and environmental factors in four neotropical floodplains. We conducted detailed morphometric analyses on 27 common species of planktonic testate amoebae from genera Arcella, Centropyxis, Cucurbitella, Suiadifflugia, Difflugia, Lesquereusia and Netzelia. We sampled subsurface water from each lake in 72 lakes in four Brazilian floodplain lakes. Our goals were to assess: (1) the range of their morphological variability (a) over space within each floodplain, and (b) among the four floodplains, and (c) over time, and (2) which environmental factors explained this variation. Mean shell height and breadth varied considerably among the different floodplain lakes, especially in the Pantanal and Amazonian floodplains. The morphological variability of testate amoeba was correlated to environmental conditions (ammonia, nitrate, phosphate, chlorophyll-a, turbidity, temperature, and depth). Thus, understanding the morphological variation of the testate amoeba species can elucidate many questions involving the ecology of these organisms. Furthermore, could help molecular studies, bioindicator role of these organisations, environmental reconstruction, among others. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Environment, Migratory Tendency, Phylogeny and Basal Metabolic Rate in Birds

PubMed Central

Jetz, Walter; Freckleton, Robert P.; McKechnie, Andrew E.

2008-01-01

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) represents the minimum maintenance energy requirement of an endotherm and has far-reaching consequences for interactions between animals and their environments. Avian BMR exhibits considerable variation that is independent of body mass. Some long-distance migrants have been found to exhibit particularly high BMR, traditionally interpreted as being related to the energetic demands of long-distance migration. Here we use a global dataset to evaluate differences in BMR between migrants and non-migrants, and to examine the effects of environmental variables. The BMR of migrant species is significantly higher than that of non-migrants. Intriguingly, while the elevated BMR of migrants on their breeding grounds may reflect the metabolic machinery required for long-distance movements, an alternative (and statistically stronger) explanation is their occupation of predominantly cold high-latitude breeding areas. Among several environmental predictors, average annual temperature has the strongest effect on BMR, with a 50% reduction associated with a 20°C gradient. The negative effects of temperature variables on BMR hold separately for migrants and non-migrants and are not due their different climatic associations. BMR in migrants shows a much lower degree of phylogenetic inertia. Our findings indicate that migratory tendency need not necessarily be invoked to explain the higher BMR of migrants. A weaker phylogenetic signal observed in migrants supports the notion of strong phenotypic flexibility in this group which facilitates migration-related BMR adjustments that occur above and beyond environmental conditions. In contrast to the findings of previous analyses of mammalian BMR, primary productivity, aridity or precipitation variability do not appear to be important environmental correlates of avian BMR. The strong effects of temperature-related variables and varying phylogenetic effects reiterate the importance of addressing both broad-scale and individual-scale variation for understanding the determinants of BMR. PMID:18810267

Considerations in the statistical analysis of clinical trials in periodontitis.

PubMed

Imrey, P B

1986-05-01

Adult periodontitis has been described as a chronic infectious process exhibiting sporadic, acute exacerbations which cause quantal, localized losses of dental attachment. Many analytic problems of periodontal trials are similar to those of other chronic diseases. However, the episodic, localized, infrequent, and relatively unpredictable behavior of exacerbations, coupled with measurement error difficulties, cause some specific problems. Considerable controversy exists as to the proper selection and treatment of multiple site data from the same patient for group comparisons for epidemiologic or therapeutic evaluative purposes. This paper comments, with varying degrees of emphasis, on several issues pertinent to the analysis of periodontal trials. Considerable attention is given to the ways in which measurement variability may distort analytic results. Statistical treatments of multiple site data for descriptive summaries are distinguished from treatments for formal statistical inference to validate therapeutic effects. Evidence suggesting that sites behave independently is contested. For inferential analyses directed at therapeutic or preventive effects, analytic models based on site independence are deemed unsatisfactory. Methods of summarization that may yield more powerful analyses than all-site mean scores, while retaining appropriate treatment of inter-site associations, are suggested. Brief comments and opinions on an assortment of other issues in clinical trial analysis are preferred.

Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.

2014-03-01

We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.

Engine design considerations for 2nd generation supersonic transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howlett, R. A.

1975-01-01

The environmental and economic goals projected for advanced supersonic transports will require revolutionary improvements in propulsion systems. Variable cycle engine concepts that incorporate unique components and advanced technologies show promise in meeting these goals. Pratt & Whitney Aircraft is conducting conceptual design studies of variable cycle engine concepts under NASA sponsorship. This paper reviews some of the design considerations for these engine concepts. Emphasis is placed on jet noise abatement, reduction of emissions, performance improvements, installation considerations, hot-section characteristics and control system requirements. Two representative variable cycle engine concepts that incorporate these basic design considerations are described.

Cell communities and robustness in development.

PubMed

Monk, N A

1997-11-01

The robustness of patterning events in development is a key feature that must be accounted for in proposed models of these events. When considering explicitly cellular systems, robustness can be exhibited at different levels of organization. Consideration of two widespread patterning mechanisms suggests that robustness at the level of cell communities can result from variable development at the level of individual cells; models of these mechanisms show how interactions between participating cells guarantee community-level robustness. Cooperative interactions enhance homogeneity within communities of like cells and the sharpness of boundaries between communities of distinct cells, while competitive interactions amplify small inhomogeneities within communities of initially equivalent cells, resulting in fine-grained patterns of cell specialization.

Fetal Liver Bisphenol A Concentrations and Biotransformation Gene Expression Reveal Variable Exposure and Altered Capacity for Metabolism in Humans

PubMed Central

Nahar, Muna S.; Liao, Chunyang; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Dolinoy, Dana C.

2013-01-01

Widespread exposure to the endocrine active compound, bisphenol A (BPA), is well documented in humans. A growing body of literature suggests adverse health outcomes associated with varying ranges of exposure to BPA. In the current study, we measured the internal dose of free BPA and conjugated BPA and evaluated gene expression of bio-transformation enzymes specific for BPA metabolism in 50 first- and second-trimester human fetal liver samples. Both free BPA and conjugated BPA concentrations varied widely, with free BPA exhibiting three times higher concentrations than conjugated BPA concentrations. As compared to gender-matched adult liver controls, UDP-glucuronyltransferase, sulfotransferase, and steroid sulfatase genes exhibited reduced expression whereas β-glucuronidase mRNA expression remained unchanged in the fetal tissues. This study provides evidence that there is considerable exposure to BPA during human pregnancy and that the capacity for BPA metabolism is altered in the human fetal liver. PMID:23208979

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.