Differences in experiences in rockfall hazard mapping in Switzerland and Principality of Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbruzzese, J.; Labiouse, V.

2009-04-01

The need to cope with rockfall hazard and risk led many countries to adopt proper strategies for hazard mapping and risk management, based on their own social and political constraints. The experience of every single country in facing this challenge provides useful information and possible approaches to evaluate rockfall hazard and risk. More, with particular regard to the hazard mapping process, some important points are common to many methodologies in Europe, especially as for the use of rock fall intensity-frequency diagrams to define specific hazard levels. This aspect could suggest a starting point for comparing and possibly harmonising existing methodologies. On the other hand, the results obtained from methodologies used in different countries may be difficult to be compared, first because the existing national guidelines are established as a consequence of what has been learned in each country from dealing with past rockfall events. Particularly, diverse social and political considerations do influence the definition of the threshold values of the parameters which determine a given degree of hazard, and eventually the type of land-use accepted for each hazard level. Therefore, a change in the threshold values for rockfall intensity and frequency is already enough to produce completely different zoning results even if the same methodology is applied. In relation with this issue, the paper introduces some of the current challenges and difficulties in comparing hazard mapping results in Europe and, subsequently, in the chance to develop a common standard procedure to assess the rockfall hazard. The present work is part of an on-going research project whose aim is to improve methodologies for rockfall hazard and risk mapping at the local scale, in the framework of the European Project "Mountain Risks: from prediction to management and governance", funded by the European Commission. As a reference, two approaches will be considered, proposed in Switzerland and in the Principality of Andorra, respectively. At first, the guidelines applied in the two countries will be outlined, showing which way the correspondent procedures differ. For this purpose, in both cases, the main philosophy in facing rockfall hazard will be discussed, together with its consequences in terms of the resulting intensity-frequency threshold values proposed to determine different classes of hazard. Then, a simple case study carried out in Switzerland, in the Canton of Valais, will show an application of the discussed theoretical issues, by means of a comparison between the two approaches. A rockfall hazard mapping will be performed on a 2D slope profile, following both the Swiss energy-probability threshold values and the ones used in the Principality of Andorra. The analysis of the results will introduce some consequences the criteria for defining classes of hazard may have on land-use planning, depending on which guidelines are applied in a study site. This aspect involves not only differences in zoning concerning the extension of the areas in danger, but as well the influence on land-use that the meaning of the same hazard level may have, according to which threshold values for rockfall intensity and frequency are used. These considerations underline what role social and political decisions can play in the hazard assessment process, on the basis of the experiences and understandings of each country in this field. More precisely, it is rather evident that a possible comparison and/or harmonisation of hazard mapping results is closely linked to this aspect as well, and not only to more technical matters, such as computing and mapping techniques.

Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K.

2009-04-01

Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

Water Induced Hazard Mapping in Nepal: A Case Study of East Rapti River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, N.

2010-12-01

This paper presents illustration on typical water induced hazard mapping of East Rapti River Basin under the DWIDP, GON. The basin covers an area of 2398 sq km. The methodology includes making of base map of water induced disaster in the basin. Landslide hazard maps were prepared by SINMAP approach. Debris flow hazard maps were prepared by considering geology, slope, and saturation. Flood hazard maps were prepared by using two approaches: HEC-RAS and Satellite Imagery Interpretation. The composite water-induced hazard maps were produced by compiling the hazards rendered by landslide, debris flow, and flood. The monsoon average rainfall in the basin is 1907 mm whereas maximum 24 hours precipitation is 456.8 mm. The peak discharge of the Rapati River in the year of 1993 at station was 1220 cu m/sec. This discharge nearly corresponds to the discharge of 100-year return period. The landslides, floods, and debris flows triggered by the heavy rain of July 1993 claimed 265 lives, affected 148516 people, and damaged 1500 houses in the basin. The field investigation and integrated GIS interpretation showed that the very high and high landslide hazard zones collectively cover 38.38% and debris flow hazard zone constitutes 6.58%. High flood hazard zone occupies 4.28% area of the watershed. Mitigation measures are recommendated according to Integrated Watershed Management Approach under which the non-structural and structural measures are proposed. The non-structural measures includes: disaster management training, formulation of evacuation system (arrangement of information plan about disaster), agriculture management practices, protection of water sources, slope protections and removal of excessive bed load from the river channel. Similarly, structural measures such as dike, spur, rehabilitation of existing preventive measures and river training at some locations are recommendated. The major factors that have contributed to induce high incidences of various types of mass movements and inundation in the basin are rock and soil properties, prolonged and high-intensity rainfall, steep topography and various anthropogenic factors.

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Evaluation of potential surface rupture and review of current seismic hazards program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-09

This report summarizes the authors review and evaluation of the existing seismic hazards program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The report recommends that the original program be augmented with a probabilistic analysis of seismic hazards involving assignment of weighted probabilities of occurrence to all potential sources. This approach yields a more realistic evaluation of the likelihood of large earthquake occurrence particularly in regions where seismic sources may have recurrent intervals of several thousand years or more. The report reviews the locations and geomorphic expressions of identified fault lines along with the known displacements of these faults and last knowmore » occurrence of seismic activity. Faults are mapped and categorized into by their potential for actual movement. Based on geologic site characterization, recommendations are made for increased seismic monitoring; age-dating studies of faults and geomorphic features; increased use of remote sensing and aerial photography for surface mapping of faults; the development of a landslide susceptibility map; and to develop seismic design standards for all existing and proposed facilities at LANL.« less

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Penobscot County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program (MFMP), began scoping work in 2006 for Penobscot County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Penobscot County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. As of 2007, the average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Penobscot County, Maine, is 22 years, based on the most recent revisions to the maps. Because the revisions did not affect all the map panels in each town, however, the true average date probably is more than 22 years. Many of the studies were published in the mid-1980s. Since the studies were completed, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Hancock County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Hancock County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Hancock County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps (all types) in Hancock County, Maine, is at least 19 years. Most of these studies were published in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and no study is more recent than 1992. Some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study, indicating that the true average age of the data is probably more than 19 years. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in some of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions or accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water levels in 3D.

Multi scale modelling of landslide hazard and risk assessment in data scarce area - a case study on Dhalai District, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Kapil; De, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Successful landslide management plans and policy depends on in-depth knowledge about the hazard and associated risk. Thus, the present research is intended to present an integrated approach involving uses of geospatial technologies for landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales (site specific to regional level). The landslide hazard map at regional scale (district level) is prepared by using weight-rating based method. To analyze landslide manifestation in the Dhalai district of Tripura different causative factor maps (lithology, road buffer, slope, relative relief, rainfall, fault buffer, landuse/landcover and drainage density) are derived. The analysis revealed that the geological structure and human interference have more influence than other considered factors on the landslide occurrences. The landslide susceptibility zonation map shows that about 1.64 and 16.68% of the total study area is falling under very high and high susceptibility zones respectively. The landslide risk assessment at district level is generated by integrating hazard scouring and resource damage potential scouring (fuzzy membership values) maps. The values of landslide risk matrix are varying within the range of 0.001 to 0.18 and the risk assessment map shows that only 0.45% (10.80 km2) of the district is under very high risk zone, whereas, about 50% pixels of existing road section are under very high to high level of landslide risk. The major part (94.06%) of the district is under very low to low risk zone. Landslide hazard and risk assessment at site specific level have been carried out through intensive field investigation in which it is found that the Ambassa landslide is located within 150 m buffer zone of fault line. Variation of geo-electrical resistivity (2.2Ωm to 31.4Ωm) indicates the complex geological character in this area. Based on the obtained geo-technical result which helps to identify the degree of risk to the existing resource, it is appropriate to implement the management plans such as construction of sub-surface drainage, extension of retaining walls, cutting/filling of slope in scientific manner. Keywords: landslide, hazard, risk, fuzzy set theory

The Use of Geospatial Technologies in Flood Hazard Mapping and Assessment: Case Study from River Evros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentzafou, Angeliki; Markogianni, Vasiliki; Dimitriou, Elias

2017-02-01

Many scientists link climate change to the increase of the extreme weather phenomena frequency, which combined with land use changes often lead to disasters with severe social and economic effects. Especially floods as a consequence of heavy rainfall can put vulnerable human and natural systems such as transboundary wetlands at risk. In order to meet the European Directive 2007/60/EC requirements for the development of flood risk management plans, the flood hazard map of Evros transboundary watershed was produced after a grid-based GIS modelling method that aggregates the main factors related to the development of floods: topography, land use, geology, slope, flow accumulation and rainfall intensity. The verification of this tool was achieved through the comparison between the produced hazard map and the inundation maps derived from the supervised classification of Landsat 5 and 7 satellite imageries of four flood events that took place at Evros delta proximity, a wetland of international importance. The comparison of the modelled output (high and very high flood hazard areas) with the extent of the inundated areas as mapped from the satellite data indicated the satisfactory performance of the model. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each land use against the flood events was examined. Geographically Weighted Regression has also been applied between the final flood hazard map and the major factors in order to ascertain their contribution to flood events. The results accredited the existence of a strong relationship between land uses and flood hazard indicating the flood susceptibility of the lowlands and agricultural land. A dynamic transboundary flood hazard management plan should be developed in order to meet the Flood Directive requirements for adequate and coordinated mitigation practices to reduce flood risk.

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Kennebec County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Kennebec County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Kennebec County, Maine is 16 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Kennebec County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Kennebec County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how e

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Somerset County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Somerset County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Somerset County, Maine is 18.1 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Somerset County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Somerset County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and ho

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Cumberland County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Cumberland County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Cumberland County, Maine is 21 years. Most of these studies were in the early to mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-25 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Cumberland County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Cumberland County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how effective FIS data can be used in new project, and identify other data needed to

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey.

PubMed

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The landslide susceptibility mapping and assessment with ZY satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Y.

2012-12-01

Natural hazards can result in enormous property damage and casualties in mountainous regions. In China, the direct loss of hazards is about 400 million yuan in 2011. Especially the landslide, the most common natural hazards, got the wide attention of each country. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance for landslide hazard mitigation efforts throughout the world. In Southwest Hubei, there are much mineral mining activities, which may trigger the landslide. In addition the Three Gorges reservoir is located in this area, and the storage changed the geological and hydrological environment, which may increase the frequency of the ancient landslide reactivation, and the new landslide occurrence. There are more than 200 landslide hazards happened since 2003. So producing a regional-scaled landslide susceptibility map is necessary. For the above purpose, the landslide susceptibility mapping was produced by using the ZY-3 and ZY-1-02C satellite data, the DEMs and the conventional topographic data.(1) The DEM derivatives slope gradient, the slope aspect and the topographic wetness index (TWI) ; (2) in order to acquire the spatially continuous vegetation information, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was computed using ZY-1-02C and ZY-3; (3) the regional lithologic information (i.e. mineral distribution) and the tectonic information obtained from remote sensing data in combination with regional geological survey; (4) the regional hydrogeological information was produced by using the remote sensing data in combination with the DEMs; (5) the existed landslides information obtained from remote sensing. To model the landslide hazard assessment using variety of statistic methods and evaluation methods, the cross application model yields reasonable results which can be applied for preliminary landslide hazard mapping and the hazard grade division.

Debris flow risk mapping on medium scale and estimation of prospective economic losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blahut, Jan; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Delimitation of potential zones affected by debris flow hazard, mapping of areas at risk, and estimation of future economic damage provides important information for spatial planners and local administrators in all countries endangered by this type of phenomena. This study presents a medium scale (1:25 000 - 1: 50 000) analysis applied in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Italian Alps, Lombardy Region). In this area a debris flow hazard map was coupled with the information about the elements at risk to obtain monetary values of prospective damage. Two available hazard maps were obtained from GIS medium scale modelling. Probability estimations of debris flow occurrence were calculated using existing susceptibility maps and two sets of aerial images. Value to the elements at risk was assigned according to the official information on housing costs and land value from the Territorial Agency of Lombardy Region. In the first risk map vulnerability values were assumed to be 1. The second risk map uses three classes of vulnerability values qualitatively estimated according to the debris flow possible propagation. Risk curves summarizing the possible economic losses were calculated. Finally these maps of economic risk were compared to maps derived from qualitative evaluation of the values of the elements at risk.

Application of LANDSAT data to delimitation of avalanche hazards in Montane Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Many avalanche hazard zones can be identified on LANDSAT imagery, but not consistently over a large region. Therefore, regional avalanche hazard mapping, using LANDSAT imagery, must draw on additional sources of information. A method was devised that depicts three levels of avalanche hazards according to three corresponding levels of certainty that active avalanches occur. The lowest level, potential avalanche hazards, was defined by delineating slopes steep enough to support avalanches at elevations where snowfall was likely to be sufficient to produce a thick snowpack. The intermediate level of avalanche hazard was interpreted as avalanche hazard zones. These zones have direct and indirect indicators of active avalanche activity and were interpreted from LANDSAT imagery. The highest level of known or active avalanche hazards was compiled from existing maps. Some landslides in Colorado were identified and, to a degree, delimited on LANDSAT imagery, but the conditions of their identification were highly variable. Because of local topographic, geologic, structural, and vegetational variations, there was no unique landslide spectral appearance.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

1990-07-01

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

2016-01-01

We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated ground deformation

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Charles H.; Grossman, Eric E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gibbs, Ann E.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

Geospatial Approach on Landslide Hazard Zonation Mapping Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Study on Coonoor and Ooty, Part of Kallar Watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahamana, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.

2014-12-01

Landslides are one of the critical natural phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly area, resulting to loss of human life and property, as well as causing severe damage to natural resources. The local geology with high degree of slope coupled with high intensity of rainfall along with unplanned human activities of the study area causes many landslides in this region. The present study area is more attracted by tourist throughout the year, so this area must be considered for preventive measures. Geospatial based Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide vulnerability and hazard zonation mapping. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this present study, it is used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to prepare landslide hazard zones of the Coonoor and Ooty, part of Kallar watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu. The study was carried out using remote sensing data, field surveys and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The ten factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, drainage density, lineament density, soil, precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from road and NDVI were considered. These factors layers were extracted from the various related spatial data's. These factors were evaluated, and then, the individual factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the related factors. The Landslide Hazard Zone Index (LHZI) was calculated using Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) the technique based on the assigned weight and the rating is given by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The final cumulative map of the study area was categorized into four hazard zones and classified as zone I to IV. There are 3.56% of the area comes under the hazard zone IV fallowed by 48.19% of the area comes under zone III, 43.63 % of the area in zone II and 4.61% of the area comes hazard zone I. Further resulted hazard zone map and landuse/landcover map are overlaid to check the hazard status, and existing inventory of known landslides within the present study area was compared with the resulting vulnerable and hazard zone maps. The landslide hazard zonation map is useful for landslide hazard prevention, mitigation, and improvement to society, and proper planning for land use and construction in the future.

Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Takayuki

2018-05-01

Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study-Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps: GIS Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2006-01-01

Introduction: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury and others, 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. We present the spatial (geographic information system, GIS) data from the pilot study in standard GIS formats and provide files for visualization in Google Earth, a global map viewer.

New Activities of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.

2013-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for the production and use of new tsunami hazard analysis products. 4) Identify multistate collaborations and funding partners interested in these new products. Application of these new products will improve the overall safety and resilience of coastal communities exposed to tsunami hazards.

Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study - modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study. Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University. Portland State University, Horning Geosciences, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Draft copies and a briefing on the contents, results and recommendations of this document were provided to FEMA officials before final publication.

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation's traditional territory, are situated on highly thaw sensitive permafrost. These projects demonstrate how physical and socio-economic factors can be integrated in assessments of permafrost vulnerability to thaw, thus providing tangible, useable results that reflect community priorities and support local decision making.

Regional liquefaction hazard evaluation following the 2010-2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begg, John; Brackley, Hannah; Irwin, Marion; Grant, Helen; Berryman, Kelvin; Dellow, Grant; Scott, David; Jones, Katie; Barrell, David; Lee, Julie; Townsend, Dougal; Jacka, Mike; Harwood, Nick; McCahon, Ian; Christensen, Steve

2013-04-01

Following the damaging 4 Sept 2010 Mw7.1 Darfield Earthquake, the 22 Feb 2011 Christchurch Earthquake and subsequent damaging aftershocks, we completed a liquefaction hazard evaluation for c. 2700 km2 of the coastal Canterbury region. Its purpose was to distinguish at a regional scale areas of land that, in the event of strong ground shaking, may be susceptible to damaging liquefaction from areas where damaging liquefaction is unlikely. This information will be used by local government for defining liquefaction-related geotechnical investigation requirements for consent applications. Following a review of historic records of liquefaction and existing liquefaction assessment maps, we undertook comprehensive new work that included: a geologic context from existing geologic maps; geomorphic mapping using LiDAR and integrating existing soil map data; compilation of lithological data for the surficial 10 m from an extensive drillhole database; modelling of depth to unconfined groundwater from existing subsurface and surface water data. Integrating and honouring all these sources of information, we mapped areas underlain by materials susceptible to liquefaction (liquefaction-prone lithologies present, or likely, in the near-surface, with shallow unconfined groundwater) from areas unlikely to suffer widespread liquefaction damage. Comparison of this work with more detailed liquefaction susceptibility assessment based on closely spaced geotechnical probes in Christchurch City provides a level of confidence in these results. We tested our susceptibility map by assigning a matrix of liquefaction susceptibility rankings to lithologies recorded in drillhole logs and local groundwater depths, then applying peak ground accelerations for four earthquake scenarios from the regional probabilistic seismic hazard model (25 year return = 0.13g; 100 year return = 0.22g; 500 year return = 0.38g and 2500 year return = 0.6g). Our mapped boundary between liquefaction-prone areas and areas unlikely to sustain heavy damage proved sound. In addition, we compared mapped liquefaction extents (derived from post-earthquake aerial photographs) from the 4 Sept 2010 Mw7.1 and 22 Feb 2011 Mw6.2 earthquakes with our liquefaction susceptibility map. The overall area of liquefaction for these two earthquakes was similar, and statistics show that for the first (large regional) earthquake, c. 93% of mapped liquefaction fell within the liquefaction-prone area, and for the second (local, high peak ground acceleration) earthquake, almost 99% fell within the liquefaction-prone area. We conclude that basic geological and groundwater data when coupled with LiDAR data can usefully delineate areas susceptible to liquefaction from those unlikely to suffer damaging liquefaction. We believe that these techniques can be used successfully in many other cities around the world.

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these maps better than the general public. This study's findings will be provided to emergency managers to assist in the development of educational programs and response plans.

Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

PubMed

Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

2013-09-30

Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Landslide hazard in Bukavu (DR Congo): a geomorphological assessment in a data-poor context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewitte, Olivier; Mugaruka Bibentyo, Toussaint; Kulimushi Matabaro, Sylvain; Balegamire, Clarisse; Basimike, Joseph; Delvaux, Damien; Dille, Antoine; Ganza Bamulezi, Gloire; Jacobs, Liesbet; Michellier, Caroline; Monsieurs, Elise; Mugisho Birhenjira, Espoir; Nshokano, Jean-Robert; Nzolang, Charles; Kervyn, François

2017-04-01

Many cities in the Global South are known for facing an important increase in their population size. Many of them are then struggling with the sprawl of new settlements and very often urban planning and sustainable management policies are limited, if not non-existent. When those cities are set in landslide-prone environments, this situation is even more problematic. Despite these environmental constrains, landslide hazard assessments relevant for landscape planning remain rare. The objective of this research is to assess the landslide hazard in Bukavu, a city in DR Congo that is facing such a situation. We used a geomorphological approach (adapted from Cardinali et al., 2002) taking into account the data-poor context and the impact of anthropogenic activities. First, we built a multi-temporal historical inventory for a period of 60 years. A total of 151 landslides were mapped (largest landslide 1.5 km2). Their cumulative areas cover 29% of the urban territory and several types of processes are identified. Changes in the distribution and pattern of landslides allowed then to infer the possible evolution of the slopes, the most probable type of failures, and their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. Despite this comprehensive inventory, hazard linked to the occurrence of new large deep-seated slides cannot be assessed due a scarcity of reliable data on the environmental factors controlling their occurrence. In addition, age estimation of the occurrence of some of the largest landslides refers to periods at the beginning of the Holocene where climatic and seismic conditions were probably different. Therefore, based on the inventory, we propose four hazard scenarios that coincide with today's environment. Hazard assessment was done for (1) reactivation of deep-seated slides, (2) occurrence of new small shallow slides, (3) rock falls, and (4) movements within existing landslides. Based on these assessments, we produced four hazard maps that indicate the zones where landslides may occur as well as the runout zones. Rock fall hazard concerns a very small portion of the urban territory. The other three hazards are much more widely spread. For these three scenarios, the hazard is the highest in areas that cover about 5 to 10% of the urban territory. The maps are presented in four classes. They present an information that can be easily used for further risk analysis and/or urban planning purposes.

Building Better Volcanic Hazard Maps Through Scientific and Stakeholder Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Calder, E.

2015-12-01

All across the world information about natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunami is shared and communicated using maps that show which locations are potentially exposed to hazards of varying intensities. Unlike earthquakes and tsunami, which typically produce one dominant hazardous phenomenon (ground shaking and inundation, respectively) volcanic eruptions can produce a wide variety of phenomena that range from near-vent (e.g. pyroclastic flows, ground shaking) to distal (e.g. volcanic ash, inundation via tsunami), and that vary in intensity depending on the type and location of the volcano. This complexity poses challenges in depicting volcanic hazard on a map, and to date there has been no consistent approach, with a wide range of hazard maps produced and little evaluation of their relative efficacy. Moreover, in traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map that is then presented to stakeholders. This one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication does not necessarily translate into effective hazard education, or, as tragically demonstrated by Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia in 1985, its use in risk mitigation by civil authorities. Furthermore, messages taken away from a hazard map can be strongly influenced by its visual design. Thus, hazard maps are more likely to be useful, usable and used if relevant stakeholders are engaged during the hazard map process to ensure a) the map is designed in a relevant way and b) the map takes into account how users interpret and read different map features and designs. The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk has recently launched a Hazard Mapping Working Group to collate some of these experiences in graphically depicting volcanic hazard from around the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean, with the aim of preparing some Considerations for Producing Volcanic Hazard Maps that may help map makers in the future.

Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

2015-12-01

Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such findings, we make a number of suggestions for communicating hazard using maps. Most importantly, we emphasise that multiple meanings may be taken away from a map, and this may have important implications in a crisis. We propose that engaging with map audiences in a two-way dialogue in times of peace may help prevent miscommunications in the event of a crisis.

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit having enough quality information to map volcanic hazards and to run more reliable models of volcanic hazards, but in addition it aims to become a sharing system, improving communication between researchers, reducing redundant work and to be the reference for geological research in the Canary Islands.

Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrier, M.

2011-12-01

As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation projects that are being conducted alongside the community hazard map include marking evacuation routes with painted bamboo signs, creating a meaningful landslide awareness mural, and installing simple early warning systems that detect land movement and alert residents that evacuation routes should be used. KKN-PPM is scheduled to continue until August 25th, 2011. In the future, research will be done into using the model for community based hazard mapping outlined here in the Geological Sciences Department at SDSU to increase georisk awareness and improve mitigation of landslides in local areas of need such as Tijuana, Mexico.

Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

2016-04-01

Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

Concept of a spatial data infrastructure for web-mapping, processing and service provision for geo-hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinke, Elisabeth; Hölbling, Daniel; Albrecht, Florian; Friedl, Barbara

2017-04-01

Geo-hazards and their effects are distributed geographically over wide regions. The effective mapping and monitoring is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. It is often best achieved using satellite imagery and new object-based image analysis approaches to identify and delineate geo-hazard objects (landslides, floods, forest fires, storm damages, etc.). At the moment, several local/national databases and platforms provide and publish data of different types of geo-hazards as well as web-based risk maps and decision support systems. Also, the European commission implemented the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) in 2015 that publishes information about natural and man-made disasters and risks. Currently, no platform for landslides or geo-hazards as such exists that enables the integration of the user in the mapping and monitoring process. In this study we introduce the concept of a spatial data infrastructure for object delineation, web-processing and service provision of landslide information with the focus on user interaction in all processes. A first prototype for the processing and mapping of landslides in Austria and Italy has been developed within the project Land@Slide, funded by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG in the Austrian Space Applications Program ASAP. The spatial data infrastructure and its services for the mapping, processing and analysis of landslides can be extended to other regions and to all types of geo-hazards for analysis and delineation based on Earth Observation (EO) data. The architecture of the first prototypical spatial data infrastructure includes four main areas of technical components. The data tier consists of a file storage system and the spatial data catalogue for the management of EO-data, other geospatial data on geo-hazards, as well as descriptions and protocols for the data processing and analysis. An interface to extend the data integration from external sources (e.g. Sentinel-2 data) is planned for the possibility of rapid mapping. The server tier consists of java based web and GIS server. Sub and main services are part of the service tier. Sub services are for example map services, feature editing services, geometry services, geoprocessing services and metadata services. For (meta)data provision and to support data interoperability, web standards of the OGC and the rest-interface is used. Four central main services are designed and developed: (1) a mapping service (including image segmentation and classification approaches), (2) a monitoring service to monitor changes over time, (3) a validation service to analyze landslide delineations from different sources and (4) an infrastructure service to identify affected landslides. The main services use and combine parts of the sub services. Furthermore, a series of client applications based on new technology standards making use of the data and services offered by the spatial data infrastructure. Next steps include the design to extend the current spatial data infrastructure to other areas and geo-hazard types to develop a spatial data infrastructure that can assist targeted mapping and monitoring of geo-hazards on a global context.

Methodologies For A Physically Based Rockfall Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliardi, F.; Crosta, G. B.; Guzzetti, F.; Marian, M.

Rockfall hazard assessment is an important land planning tool in alpine areas, where settlements progressively expand across rockfall prone areas, rising the vulnerability of the elements at risk, the worth of potential losses and the restoration costs. Nev- ertheless, hazard definition is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. In addition, the high mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope insta- bilities for which runout is minimal. When coping with rockfalls, hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". The local occurrence probability must derive from the combination of the triggering probability (related to the geomechanical susceptibility of rock masses to fail) and the transit or impact probability at a given location (related to the motion of falling blocks). The intensity (or magnitude) of a rockfall is a complex function of mass, velocity and fly height of involved blocks that can be defined in many different ways depending on the adopted physical description and "destructiveness" criterion. This work is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of numerical modelling performed by an original 3D rockfall simulation program. This is based on a kinematic algorithm and allows the spatially distributed simulation of rockfall motions on a three-dimensional topography described by a DTM. The code provides raster maps portraying the max- imum frequency of transit, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. The results of some three dimensional rockfall models, performed at both regional and lo- cal scale in areas where rockfall related problems are well known, have been used to assess rockfall hazard, by adopting an objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing a positional "hazard index". Different hazard maps have been ob- tained combining and classifying variables in different ways. The performance of the different hazard maps has been evaluated on the basis of past rockfall events and com- pared to the results of existing methodologies. The sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

Debris flow hazard mapping, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazengarb, Colin; Rigby, Ted; Stevenson, Michael

2015-04-01

Our mapping on the many dolerite capped mountains in Tasmania indicates that debris flows are a significant geomorphic process operating there. Hobart, the largest city in the State, lies at the foot of one of these mountains and our work is focussed on identifying areas that are susceptible to these events and estimating hazard in the valley systems where residential developments have been established. Geomorphic mapping with the benefit of recent LiDAR and GIS enabled stereo-imagery has allowed us to add to and refine a landslide inventory in our study area. In addition, a dominant geomorphic model has been recognised involving headward gully retreat in colluvial materials associated with rainstorms explains why many past events have occurred and where they may occur in future. In this paper we will review the landslide inventory including a large event (~200 000m3) in 1872 that affected a lightly populated area but since heavily urbanised. From this inventory we have attempted volume-mobility relationships, magnitude-frequency curves and likelihood estimates. The estimation of volume has been challenging to determine given that the area of depletion for each debris flow feature is typically difficult to distinguish from the total affected area. However, where LiDAR data exists, this uncertainty is substantially reduced and we develop width-length relationships (area of depletion) and area-volume relationships to estimate volume for the whole dataset exceeding 300 features. The volume-mobility relationship determined is comparable to international studies and in the absence of reliable eye-witness accounts, suggests that most of the features can be explained as single event debris flows, without requiring more complex mechanisms (such as those that form temporary debris dams that subsequently fail) as proposed by others previously. Likelihood estimates have also been challenging to derive given that almost all of the events have not been witnessed, some are constrained by aerial photographs to decade precision and many predate regional photography (pre 1940's). We have performed runout modelling, using 2D hydraulic modelling software (RiverFlow2D with Mud and Debris module), in order to calibrate our model against real events and gain confidence in the choice of parameters. Runout modelling was undertaken in valley systems with volumes calibrated to existing flood model likelihoods for each catchment. The hazard outputs from our models require developing a translation to hazard models used in Australia. By linking to flood mapping we aim to demonstrate to emergency managers where existing mitigation measures may be inadequate and how they can be adapted to address multiple hazards.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard mapping calculations. These hazard maps are in general agreement with previous maps for the Aegean, recognising the highest hazard in the Ionian Islands, Gulf of Corinth and Hellenic Arc. Peak Ground Accelerations for some sites in these regions reach as high as 500-600 cm s -2 using European/NGA attenuation models, and 400-500 cm s -2 using Greek attenuation models.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Groundwater pollution risk assessment. Application to different carbonate aquifers in south Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez Madrid, A.; Martinez Navarrete, C.; Carrasco Cantos, F.

2009-04-01

Water protection has been considered one of the most important environmental goals in the European politics since the 2000/60/CE Water Framework Directive came into force in 2000, and more specifically in 2006 with the 2006/118/CE Directive on groundwater protection. As one of the necessary requirements to tackle groundwater protection, a pollution risk assessment has been made through the analysis of both the existing hazard human activities map and the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability map, by applying the methodologies proposed by COST Action 620 in an experimental study site in south Spain containing different carbonated aquifers, which supply 8 towns ranging from 2000 to 2500 inhabitants. In order to generate both maps it was necessary to make a field inventory over a 1:10000 topographic base map, followed by Geographic Information System (GIS) processing. The outcome maps show a clear spatial distribution of both pollution risk and intrinsic vulnerability of the carbonated aquifers studied. As a final result, a map of the intensity of groundwater pollution risk is presented, representing and important base for the development of a proper methodology for the protection of groundwater resources for human consumption protection. Keywords. Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk, SIG, Protection

Mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes using RAPID-N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2013-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management Program (RMP) Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology. This custom implementation is based on the property estimation framework and allows the easy modification of model parameters and the substitution of equations with alternatives. RAPID-N can be applied at different stages of the Natech risk management process: It allows on the one hand the analysis of hypothetical Natech scenarios to prevent or prepare for a Natech accident by supporting land-use and emergency planning. On the other hand, once a natural disaster occurs RAPID-N can be used for rapidly locating facilities with potential Natech accident damage based on actual natural-hazard information. This provides a means to warn the population in the vicinity of the facilities in a timely manner. This presentation will introduce the specific features of RAPID-N and show the use of the tool by application to a case-study area.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

Hazard Maps in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1988-01-01

Emphasizes the use of geophysical hazard maps and illustrates how they can be used in the classroom from kindergarten to college level. Depicts ways that hazard maps of floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, and multi-hazards can be integrated into classroom instruction. Tells how maps may be obtained. (SLM)

LiDAR Applications in Resource Geology and Benefits for Land Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikulovsky, R. P.; De La Fuente, J. A.

2013-12-01

The US Forest Service (US Department of Agriculture) manages a broad range of geologic resources and hazards on National Forests and Grass Lands throughout the United States. Resources include rock and earth materials, groundwater, caves and paleontological resources, minerals, energy resources, and unique geologic areas. Hazards include landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and naturally hazardous materials (e.g., asbestos, radon). Forest Service Geologists who address these issues are Resource Geologists. They have been exploring LiDAR as a revolutionary tool to efficiently manage all of these hazards and resources. However, most LiDAR applications for management have focused on timber and fuels management, rather than landforms. This study shows the applications and preliminary results of using LiDAR for managing geologic resources and hazards on public lands. Applications shown include calculating sediment budgets, mapping and monitoring landslides, mapping and characterizing borrow pits or mines, determining landslide potential, mapping faults, and characterizing groundwater dependent ecosystems. LiDAR can be used to model potential locations of groundwater dependent ecosystems with threatened or endangered plant species such as Howellia aquatilis. This difficult to locate species typically exists on the Mendocino National Forest within sag ponds on landslide benches. LiDAR metrics of known sites are used to model potential habitat. Thus LiDAR can link the disciplines of geology, hydrology, botany, archaeology and others for enhanced land management. As LiDAR acquisition costs decrease and it becomes more accessible, land management organizations will find a wealth of applications with potential far-reaching benefits for managing geologic resources and hazards.

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Values of Flood Hazard Mapping for Disaster Risk Assessment and Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2015-12-01

Flood plains provide tremendous benefits for human settlements. Since olden days people have lived with floods and attempted to control them if necessary. Modern engineering works such as building embankment have enabled people to live even in flood prone areas, and over time population and economic assets have concentrated in these areas. In developing countries also, rapid land use change alters exposure and vulnerability to floods and consequently increases disaster risk. Flood hazard mapping is an essential step for any counter measures. It has various objectives including raising awareness of residents, finding effective evacuation routes and estimating potential damages through flood risk mapping. Depending on the objectives and data availability, there are also many possible approaches for hazard mapping including simulation basis, community basis and remote sensing basis. In addition to traditional paper-based hazard maps, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) promotes more interactive hazard mapping such as movable hazard map to demonstrate scenario simulations for risk communications and real-time hazard mapping for effective disaster responses and safe evacuations. This presentation first summarizes recent advancement of flood hazard mapping by focusing on Japanese experiences and other examples from Asian countries. Then it introduces a flood simulation tool suitable for hazard mapping at the river basin scale even in data limited regions. In the past few years, the tool has been practiced by local officers responsible for disaster management in Asian countries. Through the training activities of hazard mapping and risk assessment, we conduct comparative analysis to identify similarity and uniqueness of estimated economic damages depending on topographic and land use conditions.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard models and maps for the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Haller, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the scientific basis for the source and ground-motion models applied in the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Maps, the development of new products that are used for building design and risk analyses, relationships between the hazard maps and design maps used in building codes, and potential future improvements to the hazard maps.

Study on Frequency content in seismic hazard analysis in West Azarbayjan and East Azarbayjan provinces (Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadafshar, K.; Abbaszadeh Shahri, A.; Isfandiari, K.

2012-12-01

ABSTRACT: Iran plate is prone to earthquake, occurrence of destructive earthquakes approximately every 5 years certify it. Due to existence of happened great earthquakes and large number of potential seismic sources (active faults) which some of them are responsible for great earthquakes the North-West of Iran which is located in junction of Alborz and Zagros seismotectonic provinces (Mirzaii et al, 1998) is an interesting area for seismologists. Considering to population and existence of large cities like Tabriz, Ardabil and Orumiyeh which play crucial role in industry and economy of Iran, authors decided to focus on study of seismic hazard assessment in these two provinces to achieve ground acceleration in different frequency content and indicate critical frequencies in the studied area. It is important to note that however lots of studies have been done in North -West of Iran, but building code modifications also need frequency content analysis to asses seismic hazard more precisely which has been done in the present study. Furthermore, in previous studies have been applied free download softwares which were provided before 2000 but the most important advantage of this study is applying professional industrial software which has been written in 2009 and provided by authors. This applied software can cover previous software weak points very well such as gridding potential sources, attention to the seismogenic zone and applying attenuation relationships directly. Obtained hazard maps illustrate that maximum accelerations will be experienced in North West to South East direction which increased by frequency reduction from 100 Hz to 10 Hz then decreased by frequency reduce (to 0.25 Hz). Maximum acceleration will be occurred in the basement in 10 HZ frequency content. Keywords: hazard map, Frequency content, seismogenic zone, Iran

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Volcanic Hazard Maps; the results and progress made by the IAVCEI Hazard Map working group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Lindsay, Jan; Wright, Heather

2017-04-01

The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk set up a working group on Hazard Maps in 2014. Since then, the group has led or co-organised three major workshops, and organized two thematic conference sessions. In particular we have initiated a series of workshops, named the "State of the Hazard Map" which we plan to continue (the first was held at COV8 (State of the Hazard Map 1) and second at COV9 (State of the Hazard Map 2) and the third will be held at IAVCEI General Assembly in Portland. The broad aim of these activities is to work towards an IAVCEI-endorsed considerations or guidelines document for volcanic hazard map generation. The workshops have brought together people from around the world working on volcanic hazard maps, and have had four primary objectives: 1) to review (and collect further data on) the diverse variety of methods and rationales currently used to develop maps; 2) to openly discuss approaches and experiences regarding how hazard maps are interpreted and used by different groups; 3) to discuss and prepare the IAVCEI Guidelines document; and lastly, 4) Discuss options for finalizing, publishing and disseminating the Guidelines document (e.g. wiki, report, open-source publication). This presentation will provide an update of the results and outcomes of those initiatives. This includes brief outcomes of the reviews undertaken, a survey that has been constructed in order to gather additional data, the planned structure for the guidelines documents and a summary of the key findings to date. The majority of the participants of these activities so far have come from volcano observatories or geological surveys, as these institutions commonly have primary responsibility for making operational hazard map. It is important however that others in the scientific community that work on quantification of volcanic hazard contribute to these guidelines. We therefore invite interested parties to become involved.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Coastal Hazards Maps: Actionable Information for Communities Facing Sea-Level Rise (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibeaut, J. C.; Barraza, E.

2010-12-01

Barrier islands along the U.S. Gulf coast remain under increasing pressure from development. This development and redevelopment is occurring despite recent hurricanes, ongoing erosion, and sea-level rise. To lessen the impacts of these hazards, local governments need information in a form that is useful for informing the public, making policy, and enforcing development rules. We recently completed the Galveston Island Geohazards Map for the city of Galveston, Texas and are currently developing maps for the Mustang and South Padre Island communities. The maps show areas that vary in their susceptibility to, and function for, mitigating the effects of geological processes, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion and storm-surge flooding and washover. The current wetlands, beaches and dunes are mapped as having the highest geohazard potential both in terms of their exposure to hazardous conditions and their mitigating effects of those hazards for the rest of the island. These existing “critical environments” are generally protected under existing regulations. Importantly, however, the mapping recognizes that sea-level rise and shoreline retreat are changing the island; therefore, 60-year model projections of the effects of these changes are incorporated into the map. The areas that we project will become wetlands, beaches and dunes in the next 60 years are not protected. These areas are the most difficult to deal with from a policy point of view, yet we must address what happens there if real progress is to be made in how we live with sea-level rise. The geohazards maps draw on decades of geological knowledge of how barrier islands behave and put it in a form that is intuitive to the public and directly useful to planners. Some of the “messages” in the map include: leave salt marshes alone and give them room to migrate inland as sea level rises; set back and move development away from the shoreline to provide space for beaches and protective dunes to form; and steer away from particularly low and unprotected areas subject to flooding and washover. Probably most barrier island stakeholders have heard these messages before. The difference a map makes is that it is a tangible link from our knowledge to the issues on the ground. To increase the likelihood that the maps will be considered, we took some practical approaches. The projections for change incorporated into the maps do not include effects of increasing rates of sea-level rise as projected by global climate change studies. It would be a shame if our efforts to improve how we live along the shore were caught up in the ongoing debate of global warming and the mapping results neutralized. Instead, all we are asking is for people to look at what we have observed during the past 50 to 100 years, project that just 60 years into the future, add more people to the islands and then realize we need to start doing things differently. Furthermore, the projections are made for just 60 years because this is a timescale people often plan for in their personal lives, and because it is a period where our methods for projection are most reliable.

Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.

1979-01-01

In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Prospects and pitfalls of occupational hazard mapping: 'between these lines there be dragons'.

PubMed

Koehler, Kirsten A; Volckens, John

2011-10-01

Hazard data mapping is a promising new technique that can enhance the process of occupational exposure assessment and risk communication. Hazard maps have the potential to improve worker health by providing key input for the design of hazard intervention and control strategies. Hazard maps are developed with aid from direct-reading instruments, which can collect highly spatially and temporally resolved data in a relatively short period of time. However, quantifying spatial-temporal variability in the occupational environment is not a straightforward process, and our lack of understanding of how to ascertain and model spatial and temporal variability is a limiting factor in the use and interpretation of workplace hazard maps. We provide an example of how sources of and exposures to workplace hazards may be mischaracterized in a hazard map due to a lack of completeness and representativeness of collected measurement data. Based on this example, we believe that a major priority for research in this emerging area should focus on the development of a statistical framework to quantify uncertainty in spatially and temporally varying data. In conjunction with this need is one for the development of guidelines and procedures for the proper sampling, generation, and evaluation of workplace hazard maps.

Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Khaista; Burton, Paul W.; Weatherill, Graeme A.

2018-05-01

A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N-39° N; 59° E-80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.

Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Wheeler, Russell L.; Wesson, Robert L.; Zeng, Yuehua; Boyd, Oliver S.; Perkins, David M.; Luco, Nicolas; Field, Edward H.; Wills, Chris J.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2008-01-01

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States (maps of Alaska and Hawaii as well as further information on hazard across the United States are available on our Web site at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/).

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

Identification and delineation of areas flood hazard using high accuracy of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riadi, B.; Barus, B.; Widiatmaka; Yanuar, M. J. P.; Pramudya, B.

2018-05-01

Flood incidents that often occur in Karawang regency need to be mitigated. These expectations exist on technologies that can predict, anticipate and reduce disaster risks. Flood modeling techniques using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can be applied in mitigation activities. High accuracy DEM data used in modeling, will result in better flooding flood models. The result of high accuracy DEM data processing will yield information about surface morphology which can be used to identify indication of flood hazard area. The purpose of this study was to identify and describe flood hazard areas by identifying wetland areas using DEM data and Landsat-8 images. TerraSAR-X high-resolution data is used to detect wetlands from landscapes, while land cover is identified by Landsat image data. The Topography Wetness Index (TWI) method is used to detect and identify wetland areas with basic DEM data, while for land cover analysis using Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) method. The result of TWI modeling yields information about potential land of flood. Overlay TWI map with land cover map that produces information that in Karawang regency the most vulnerable areas occur flooding in rice fields. The spatial accuracy of the flood hazard area in this study was 87%.

Volcanic Hazard Map as a Tool of City Planning: Experiences at Galeras Volcano and the county of Pasto, Colombia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvache, M. L.

2001-12-01

Large populated areas located near active volcanoes emphasize the importance to take effective actions towards risk reduction. A volcanic hazard map is believed to be the first step in order to inform government officials, private institutions and community about the danger that poses a particular volcano. The hazard map is a tool that must be used to evaluate risk and elaborate risk map. The risk map must be used by decision makers to take measurements about the land-use accordingly with the hazard present in the area and to prepare contingency plans. In 1998 and 1999 the Colombian government pass a law, where every county of the country has to have a plan of land-use and development (POT) for the following 10 years. The POT must consider natural hazard and risk such as seismicity, landslide and volcanic activity. Without the plan, the county will not receive any economical support from the central government. In the county of Pasto, the largest city in the influence zone of Galeras volcano, the hazard map has been used to promote educational plan in schools, increasing public awareness of Galeras and its hazard, advise and persuade decision makers to consider Galeras hazard in the city development plans. On the other hand, the hazard map has been mistaken as a risk map and it has originated opposition due to the measurements taken as a consequence of the map. This presentation deal with the gain experience of using the hazard map as a tool of information and planing and the confrontation that any decision implies with political, social and economic interest.

Assessment and application of national environmental databases and mapping tools at the local level to two community case studies.

PubMed

Hammond, Davyda; Conlon, Kathryn; Barzyk, Timothy; Chahine, Teresa; Zartarian, Valerie; Schultz, Brad

2011-03-01

Communities are concerned over pollution levels and seek methods to systematically identify and prioritize the environmental stressors in their communities. Geographic information system (GIS) maps of environmental information can be useful tools for communities in their assessment of environmental-pollution-related risks. Databases and mapping tools that supply community-level estimates of ambient concentrations of hazardous pollutants, risk, and potential health impacts can provide relevant information for communities to understand, identify, and prioritize potential exposures and risk from multiple sources. An assessment of existing databases and mapping tools was conducted as part of this study to explore the utility of publicly available databases, and three of these databases were selected for use in a community-level GIS mapping application. Queried data from the U.S. EPA's National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment, Air Quality System, and National Emissions Inventory were mapped at the appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions for identifying risks of exposure to air pollutants in two communities. The maps combine monitored and model-simulated pollutant and health risk estimates, along with local survey results, to assist communities with the identification of potential exposure sources and pollution hot spots. Findings from this case study analysis will provide information to advance the development of new tools to assist communities with environmental risk assessments and hazard prioritization. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Lateral spread hazard mapping of the northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, for a M7.0 scenario earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, M.J.; Bartlett, S.F.; Solomon, B.J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used to develop a lateral spread-displacement hazard map for northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, using a scenario M7.0 earthquake occurring on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. The mapping effort is supported by a substantial amount of geotechnical, geologic, and topographic data compiled for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah. ArcGIS?? routines created for the mapping project then input this information to perform site-specific lateral spread analyses using methods developed by Bartlett and Youd (1992) and Youd et al. (2002) at individual borehole locations. The distributions of predicted lateral spread displacements from the boreholes located spatially within a geologic unit were subsequently used to map the hazard for that particular unit. The mapped displacement zones consist of low hazard (0-0.1 m), moderate hazard (0.1-0.3 m), high hazard (0.3-1.0 m), and very high hazard (> 1.0 m). As expected, the produced map shows the highest hazard in the alluvial deposits at the center of the valley and in sandy deposits close to the fault. This mapping effort is currently being applied to the southern part of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and probabilistic maps are being developed for the entire valley. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Seismotectonic Map of Afghanistan and Adjacent Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2007-01-01

Introduction This map is part of an assessment of Afghanistan's geology, natural resources, and natural hazards. One of the natural hazards is from earthquake shaking. One of the tools required to address the shaking hazard is a probabilistic seismic-hazard map, which was made separately. The information on this seismotectonic map has been used in the design and computation of the hazard map. A seismotectonic map like this one shows geological, seismological, and other information that previously had been scattered among many sources. The compilation can show spatial relations that might not have been seen by comparing the original sources, and it can suggest hypotheses that might not have occurred to persons who studied those scattered sources. The main map shows faults and earthquakes of Afghanistan. Plate convergence drives the deformations that cause the earthquakes. Accordingly, smaller maps and text explain the modern plate-tectonic setting of Afghanistan and its evolution, and relate both to patterns of faults and earthquakes.

Use of Bedrock and Geomorphic Mapping Compilations in Assessing Geologic Hazards at Recreation Sites on National Forests in NW California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Fuente, J. A.; Bell, A.; Elder, D.; Mowery, R.; Mikulovsky, R.; Klingel, H.; Stevens, M.

2010-12-01

Geologic hazards on US Forest Service lands have a long history of producing catastrophic events. In 1890 (prior to the establishment of the Forest Service), the China Mine landslide buried a miner’s camp along the Trinity River in NW California, killing a number of miners. An earthquake in southwestern Montana triggered a massive landslide which killed 28 people in a US Forest Service campground in 1959. In 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted in Oregon, killing 57 people. Debris flows from a winter storm in 2003 on the burned hillslopes of the San Bernardino National Forest in California killed 14 people at the St. Sophia youth Camp. A rockfall in the summer of 2009 in Lassen National Park killed a 9 year old boy. The most recent catastrophe occurred on June 11, 2010 when 20 people died in a flash flood at the Albert Pike Campground on the Ouachita National Forest. These and other disasters point out the need for geologic hazard mapping and assessments on the National Forests. The US Forest Service (USFS) is currently assessing geologic hazards in the Northern Province of USFS Region 5 (Pacific Southwest Region), which includes the Klamath, Mendocino, Shasta-Trinity, and Six Rivers National Forests. The most common geologic hazards (relatively short return intervals) in this area include landslides, rock falls, debris flows, flooding, temporary dam failures (landslide or woody debris), naturally occurring hazardous materials, (asbestos radon, etc), and rarely, karst subsidence. Seismic and volcanic hazards are also important at longer return intervals. This assessment will be conducted in three phases, and is patterned after a process developed by Region 8 of the US Forest Service. The first phase is a reconnaissance level assessment based on existing information such as spatial databases, aerial photos, Digital Elevation Models, State of California Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone maps, previous investigations and anecdotal accounts of past events. The bedrock coverage is a compilation of the best available mapping for all National Forests in California. The geomorphic coverage includes features such as active and dormant landslides, alluvial fans, headwall basins, glacial features, and valley inner gorge. Criteria will be developed which utilize elements of this data to evaluate geologic hazards in the vicinity of developed recreation sites. The second phase will be conducted later and involves site specific analyses focusing on areas identified as higher hazard in the first phase, along with verification and updating of phase 1 findings. The third phase will complete any site level geologic or hydrologic investigations, and wrap up the hazard assessment process. A summary report with hazard maps and recommendations will be prepared at the end of each phase. The overriding goal of this project is to provide sound geologic information to managers so they can use a science-based approach in recognizing and managing geologic hazards at recreation sites.

New ShakeMaps for Georgia Resulting from Collaboration with EMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Alania, V.

2015-12-01

Correct assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard and risks maps are first step for advance planning and action to reduce seismic risk. Seismic hazard maps for Georgia were calculated based on modern approach that was developed in the frame of EMME (Earthquake Modl for Middle east region) project. EMME was one of GEM's successful endeavors at regional level. With EMME and GEM assistance, regional models were analyzed to identify the information and additional work needed for the preparation national hazard models. Probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSH) provides the critical bases for improved building code and construction. The most serious deficiency in PSH assessment for the territory of Georgia is the lack of high-quality ground motion data. Due to this an initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Obtained results of seismic hazard maps show evidence that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation.

Automated detection of submerged navigational obstructions in freshwater impoundments with hull mounted sidescan sonar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Phillip A.

The prevalence of low-cost side scanning sonar systems mounted on small recreational vessels has created improved opportunities to identify and map submerged navigational hazards in freshwater impoundments. However, these economical sensors also present unique challenges for automated techniques. This research explores related literature in automated sonar imagery processing and mapping technology, proposes and implements a framework derived from these sources, and evaluates the approach with video collected from a recreational grade sonar system. Image analysis techniques including optical character recognition and an unsupervised computer automated detection (CAD) algorithm are employed to extract the transducer GPS coordinates and slant range distance of objects protruding from the lake bottom. The retrieved information is formatted for inclusion into a spatial mapping model. Specific attributes of the sonar sensors are modeled such that probability profiles may be projected onto a three dimensional gridded map. These profiles are computed from multiple points of view as sonar traces crisscross or come near each other. As lake levels fluctuate over time so do the elevation points of view. With each sonar record, the probability of a hazard existing at certain elevations at the respective grid points is updated with Bayesian mechanics. As reinforcing data is collected, the confidence of the map improves. Given a lake's current elevation and a vessel draft, a final generated map can identify areas of the lake that have a high probability of containing hazards that threaten navigation. The approach is implemented in C/C++ utilizing OpenCV, Tesseract OCR, and QGIS open source software and evaluated in a designated test area at Lake Lavon, Collin County, Texas.

Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation (BEVZ) -A Proposed Method of Preparing Bank Erosion Zonation and Its Application on the River Haora, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Shreya; de, Sunil Kumar

2014-05-01

In the present paper an attempt has been made to propose RS-GIS based method for erosion vulnerability zonation for the entire river based on simple techniques that requires very less field investigation. This method consist of 8 parameters, such as, rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, soil erosivity, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact. Meteorological data, GSI maps, LISS III (30m resolution), SRTM DEM (56m resolution) and Google Images have been used to determine rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact; Soil map of the NBSSLP, India has been used for assessing Soil Erosivity index. By integrating the individual values of those six parameters (the 1st two parameters are remained constant for this particular study area) a bank erosion vulnerability zonation map of the River Haora, Tripura, India (23°37' - 23°53'N and 91°15'-91°37'E) has been prepared. The values have been compared with the existing BEHI-NBS method of 60 spots and also with field data of 30 cross sections (covering the 60 spots) taken along 51 km stretch of the river in Indian Territory and found that the estimated values are matching with the existing method as well as with field data. The whole stretch has been divided into 5 hazard zones, i.e. Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low Hazard Zones and they are covering 5.66 km, 16.81 km, 40.82km, 29.67 km and 9.04 km respectively. KEY WORDS: Bank erosion, Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI), Near Bank Stress (NBS), Erosivity, Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation.

Probabilistic, Seismically-Induced Landslide Hazard Mapping of Western Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, M. J.; Sharifi Mood, M.; Gillins, D. T.; Mahalingam, R.

2015-12-01

Earthquake-induced landslides can generate significant damage within urban communities by damaging structures, obstructing lifeline connection routes and utilities, generating various environmental impacts, and possibly resulting in loss of life. Reliable hazard and risk maps are important to assist agencies in efficiently allocating and managing limited resources to prepare for such events. This research presents a new methodology in order to communicate site-specific landslide hazard assessments in a large-scale, regional map. Implementation of the proposed methodology results in seismic-induced landslide hazard maps that depict the probabilities of exceeding landslide displacement thresholds (e.g. 0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 10 meters). These maps integrate a variety of data sources including: recent landslide inventories, LIDAR and photogrammetric topographic data, geology map, mapped NEHRP site classifications based on available shear wave velocity data in each geologic unit, and USGS probabilistic seismic hazard curves. Soil strength estimates were obtained by evaluating slopes present along landslide scarps and deposits for major geologic units. Code was then developed to integrate these layers to perform a rigid, sliding block analysis to determine the amount and associated probabilities of displacement based on each bin of peak ground acceleration in the seismic hazard curve at each pixel. The methodology was applied to western Oregon, which contains weak, weathered, and often wet soils at steep slopes. Such conditions have a high landslide hazard even without seismic events. A series of landslide hazard maps highlighting the probabilities of exceeding the aforementioned thresholds were generated for the study area. These output maps were then utilized in a performance based design framework enabling them to be analyzed in conjunction with other hazards for fully probabilistic-based hazard evaluation and risk assessment. a) School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

Assessment of geo-environmental problems of the Zonguldak province (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turer, D.; Nefeslioglu, H. A.; Zorlu, K.; Gokceoglu, C.

2008-09-01

The Zonguldak province is a coastal settlement area that has been suffering from serious natural and human-induced environmental problems sourced by its geology and geomorphology. Since the province locates at the heart of a coal-producing basin, the geo-environmental problems related to mining activities such as esthetic degradation, disposal of mining wastes and subsidence of the abandoned coal galleries are badly affecting every day life in Zonguldak province. Disposal of municipal wastes is also a big problem since only one municipality out of 32 has a sanitary disposal area. The rest of the municipalities dispose their solid wastes to rivers or to the sea. The province has also some health problems, which are pointed out in the literature, related to coal mining and geologic environment. These are cytogenetic damage in peripheral lymphocytes and pheumoconiosis (most commonly seen at coal workers), goiter and cancer. Landslides are the most important hazards in the area since 13% of the total surface of the Zonguldak is affected by landslides. In this study, considering the hazard potential special attention is given to deep landslides and using the stepwise forward conditional logistic regression technique, the landslide susceptibility map for the Zonguldak province is produced. The results showed that the most important independent variables governing the landslides are slope gradient, volcanic, and sedimentary rocks of Eocene and clastic and carbonate units of Cretaceous. The landslide map is used as a base map for the production of geo-hazard reconnaissance map on which areas subjected to other important geo-hazards (flood, earthquake and subsidence) are also shown to provide guidance for both existing settlement areas to take the necessary preventive measures and for new developing settlement areas to avoid the problematic areas.

Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

2014-10-01

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice. Hazard maps were integral to science communication during the crisis, but there is limited international best practice information available on hazard maps as communication devices, as most volcanic hazard mapping literature is concerned with defining hazard zones. We propose that hazard maps are only as good as the communications framework and inter-agency relationships in which they are embedded, and we document in detail the crisis hazard map development process. We distinguish crisis hazard maps from background hazard maps and ashfall prediction maps, illustrating the complementary nature of these three distinct communication mechanisms. We highlight issues that arose and implications for the development of future maps.

Reducing the risk of potential hazard in tourist activities of Mount Bromo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meilani, R.; Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.

2018-05-01

Mount Bromo has been crowned as one of the most beautiful mountains in the world, having a particular landscape uniqueness. Not only volcano, Bromo also has savanna, sea of sands, and culture of Tengger tribe. Its panoramic landscape has attracted a large number of tourists, both domestic and foreign, despites the threat of eruption. To ensure tourists safety and satisfaction, the potentials hazard, both from eruption and other features should be managed carefully. The study objective was to identify and map hazard potentials and identify the existing hazard management. It was carried out in Mei – June 2017. Lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land sliding, extreme weather, slope, transportation modes (jeep, motorcycle, and horse), human, and land fire were found as potential hazards in Mount Bromo. Five locations had been identified as hazard area in the tourism areas, i.e. savanna, sea of sand, Bromo caldera and Pananjakan I trail and viewing point. Early warning system should be developed as part of hazard management in the area. Capacity building of local stakeholders and visitors would be needed to reduce risk of the hazard.

Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

2014-05-01

Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2006-01-01

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but scientists can forecast how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Seismic hazard maps provide one way of conveying such forecasts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces seismic hazard maps for the Nation, is now engaged in developing more detailed maps for vulnerable urban areas. The first set of these maps is now available for Memphis, Tennessee.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP project, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach in Puerto Rico.

Spatial modelling for tsunami evacuation route in Parangtritis Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juniansah, A.; Tyas, B. I.; Tama, G. C.; Febriani, K. R.; Farda, N. M.

2018-04-01

Tsunami is a series of huge sea waves that commonly occurs because of the oceanic plate movement or tectonic activity under the sea. As a sudden hazard, the tsunami has damaged many people over the years. Parangtritis village is one of high tsunami hazard risk area in Indonesia which needs an effective tsunami risk reduction. This study aims are modelling a tsunami susceptibility map, existing assembly points evaluation, and suggesting effective evacuation routes. The susceptibility map was created using ALOS PALSAR DEM and surface roughness coefficient. The method of tsunami modelling employed inundation model developed by Berryman (2006). The results are used to determine new assembly points based on the Sentinel 2A imagery and to determine the most effective evacuation route by using network analyst. This model can be used to create detailed scale of evacuation route, but unrepresentative for assembly point that far from road network.

A high-resolution global flood hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-09-01

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

A high‐resolution global flood hazard model†

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul D.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-01-01

Abstract Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data‐scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross‐disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high‐resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2‐D only variant and an independently developed pan‐European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next‐generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step‐change improvement in model performance. PMID:27594719

Digital geomorphological landslide hazard mapping of the Alpago area, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees J.; Soeters, Rob; Sijmons, Koert

Large-scale geomorphological maps of mountainous areas are traditionally made using complex symbol-based legends. They can serve as excellent "geomorphological databases", from which an experienced geomorphologist can extract a large amount of information for hazard mapping. However, these maps are not designed to be used in combination with a GIS, due to their complex cartographic structure. In this paper, two methods are presented for digital geomorphological mapping at large scales using GIS and digital cartographic software. The methods are applied to an area with a complex geomorphological setting on the Borsoia catchment, located in the Alpago region, near Belluno in the Italian Alps. The GIS database set-up is presented with an overview of the data layers that have been generated and how they are interrelated. The GIS database was also converted into a paper map, using a digital cartographic package. The resulting largescale geomorphological hazard map is attached. The resulting GIS database and cartographic product can be used to analyse the hazard type and hazard degree for each polygon, and to find the reasons for the hazard classification.

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

2014-06-01

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

Spatial predictive mapping using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noack, S.; Knobloch, A.; Etzold, S. H.; Barth, A.; Kallmeier, E.

2014-11-01

The modelling or prediction of complex geospatial phenomena (like formation of geo-hazards) is one of the most important tasks for geoscientists. But in practice it faces various difficulties, caused mainly by the complexity of relationships between the phenomena itself and the controlling parameters, as well by limitations of our knowledge about the nature of physical/ mathematical relationships and by restrictions regarding accuracy and availability of data. In this situation methods of artificial intelligence, like artificial neural networks (ANN) offer a meaningful alternative modelling approach compared to the exact mathematical modelling. In the past, the application of ANN technologies in geosciences was primarily limited due to difficulties to integrate it into geo-data processing algorithms. In consideration of this background, the software advangeo® was developed to provide a normal GIS user with a powerful tool to use ANNs for prediction mapping and data preparation within his standard ESRI ArcGIS environment. In many case studies, such as land use planning, geo-hazards analysis and prevention, mineral potential mapping, agriculture & forestry advangeo® has shown its capabilities and strengths. The approach is able to add considerable value to existing data.

Map showing potential metal-mine drainage hazards in Colorado, based on mineral-deposit geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Streufert, Randall K.; Smith, Kathleen S.; Smith, Steven M.; Wallace, Alan R.; Toth, Margo I.; Nash, J. Thomas; Robinson, Rob A.; Ficklin, Walter H.; Lee, Gregory K.

1995-01-01

This map, compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) and the U. S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM), shows potential mine-drainage hazards that may exist in Colorado metal-mining districts, as indicated by the geologic characteristics of the mineral deposits that occur in the respective districts. It was designed to demonstrate how geologic and geochemical information can be used on a regional scale to help assess the potential for mining-related and natural drainage problems in mining districts, unmined mineralized areas, and surrounding watersheds. The map also provides information on the distribution of different mineral deposit types across Colorado. A GIS (Geographic Information System) format was used to integrate geologic, geochemical, water-quality, climate, landuse, and ecological data from diverse sources. Likely mine-drainage signatures were defined for each mining district based on: (1) a review of the geologic characteristics of the mining district, including mineralogy, trace-element content, host-rock lithology, and wallrock alteration, and; (2) results of site specific studies on the geologic controls on mine-drainage composition.

Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maltzkait, Anika; Pfurtscheller, Clemens

2014-05-01

Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria A. Maltzkait (1) & C. Pfurtscheller (1) (1) Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research (IGF), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria The extreme flood events of 2002, 2005 and 2013 in Austria underlined the importance of local emergency services being able to withstand and reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards. Although for legal reasons municipal emergency and crisis management plans exist in Austria, they mostly do not cover risk analyses of natural hazards - a sound, comparable assessment to identify and evaluate risks. Moreover, total losses and operational emergencies triggered by natural hazards have increased in recent decades. Given sparse public funds, objective budget decisions are needed to ensure the efficient provision of operating resources, like personnel, vehicles and equipment in the case of natural hazards. We present a case study of the municipality of Au, Austria, which was hardly affected during the 2005 floods. Our approach is primarily based on a qualitative risk analysis, combining existing hazard plans, GIS data, field mapping and data on operational efforts of the fire departments. The risk analysis includes a map of phenomena discussed in a workshop with local experts and a list of risks as well as a risk matrix prepared at that workshop. On the basis for the exact requirements for technical and non-technical mitigation measures for each natural hazard risk were analysed in close collaboration with members of the municipal operation control and members of the local emergency services (fire brigade, Red Cross). The measures includes warning, evacuation and, technical interventions with heavy equipment and personnel. These results are used, first, to improve the municipal emergency and crisis management plan by providing a risk map, and a list of risks and, second, to check if the local emergency forces can cope with the different risk scenarios using locally available resources. The emergency response plans will identify possible resource deficiencies in personnel, vehicles and equipment. As qualitative methods and data are used, uncertainties in the study emerged in finding definitions for safety targets, in the construction of the different risk scenarios, in the inherent uncertainty beyond the probability of occurrence and the intensity of natural hazards, also in the case of the expectable losses. Finally, we used available studies and expert interviews to develop objective rules for investment decisions for the fire departments and the Red Cross to present an empirically sound basis for the efficient provision of intervention in the case of natural hazards for the municipality of Au. Again, the regulations for objective provision were developed in close collaboration with the emergency services.

Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

2012-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which ended in September 2011, focussing on the participatory aspects in one of the German case studies (the Mulde River in Saxony). In short, different map users such as strategic planners, emergency managers or the (affected) public require different maps, with varying information density and complexity. The purpose of participation may therefore have a substantive rationale (i.e. improving the content, including local knowledge) or a more instrumental rationale (i.e. building trust, raising awareness, increasing legitimacy). The degree to which both rationales are accommodated depends on the project objectives and determines the participants and process type. In the Mulde case study, both the process of collaborating with each other and considering the (local) knowledge and different experiences as well as the results were highly appreciated. Hazard and risk maps are thus not an end-product that could be complemented e.g. by emergency management information on existing or planned defences, evacuation routes, assembly points, but they should be embedded into a participatory maintenance/updating framework. Map visualisation could be enhanced by using more common and/or self-explanatory symbols, text and a limited number of colour grades for hazard and risk information. Keywords: Flood mapping, hazard and risk maps, participation, risk communication, flood risk awareness, emergency management

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our study provides good rationale for the risk zoning of the city, which in turn may be used as an educational tool for better understanding the potential effects of natural hazards and the exposure of the population residing in and around Arequipa. We hope that our work and the risk-zonation maps will provide the impetus and basis for risk-management authorities of the Municipality and the regional government of Arequipa to enforce existing regulations in building in hazardous zones and to adopt an effective long-term strategy to reduce risks from lahar, flash flood, and other natural hazards.

Seismic Hazard Maps for Seattle, Washington, Incorporating 3D Sedimentary Basin Effects, Nonlinear Site Response, and Rupture Directivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Stephenson, William J.; Carver, David L.; Williams, Robert A.; Odum, Jack K.; Rhea, Susan

2007-01-01

This report presents probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle, Washington, based on over 500 3D simulations of ground motions from scenario earthquakes. These maps include 3D sedimentary basin effects and rupture directivity. Nonlinear site response for soft-soil sites of fill and alluvium was also applied in the maps. The report describes the methodology for incorporating source and site dependent amplification factors into a probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. 3D simulations were conducted for the various earthquake sources that can affect Seattle: Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep earthquakes. The maps presented in this document used essentially the same set of faults and distributed-earthquake sources as in the 2002 national seismic hazard maps. The 3D velocity model utilized in the simulations was validated by modeling the amplitudes and waveforms of observed seismograms from five earthquakes in the region, including the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps presented here depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The maps are based on determinations of seismic hazard for 7236 sites with a spacing of 280 m. The maps show that the most hazardous locations for this frequency band (around 1 Hz) are soft-soil sites (fill and alluvium) within the Seattle basin and along the inferred trace of the frontal fault of the Seattle fault zone. The next highest hazard is typically found for soft-soil sites in the Duwamish Valley south of the Seattle basin. In general, stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin exhibit higher hazard than stiff-soil sites outside the basin. Sites with shallow bedrock outside the Seattle basin have the lowest estimated hazard for this frequency band.

Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

2012-04-01

An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds defining the different hazard or risk levels and the number and physical interpretation of the latter. In this context suggestions are made to bridge the gaps between the practices and to enhance homogenization of the hazard and risk assessment procedures and of their outputs. This work is presented within the framework of the SafeLand project funded by the European Commission's FP7 programme.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum magnitude in 50 years and the corresponding expected ground shaking intensity in a cell g of a uniform grid of the region of interest. Then such a seismic hazard map is used to generate earthquake risk maps based on the exposed population density. Some oversimplified convolutions R(g) = H(g)•gP•F(gP) of seismic hazard assessment maps H(g) are applied in a few regions with population density distribution P of vulnerability V=F(gP), where g is a cell of a uniform grid and gP is the integral of the population density over the cell g.

Updated Colombian Seismic Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eraso, J.; Arcila, M.; Romero, J.; Dimate, C.; Bermúdez, M. L.; Alvarado, C.

2013-05-01

The Colombian seismic hazard map used by the National Building Code (NSR-98) in effect until 2009 was developed in 1996. Since then, the National Seismological Network of Colombia has improved in both coverage and technology providing fifteen years of additional seismic records. These improvements have allowed a better understanding of the regional geology and tectonics which in addition to the seismic activity in Colombia with destructive effects has motivated the interest and the need to develop a new seismic hazard assessment in this country. Taking advantage of new instrumental information sources such as new broad band stations of the National Seismological Network, new historical seismicity data, standardized global databases availability, and in general, of advances in models and techniques, a new Colombian seismic hazard map was developed. A PSHA model was applied. The use of the PSHA model is because it incorporates the effects of all seismic sources that may affect a particular site solving the uncertainties caused by the parameters and assumptions defined in this kind of studies. First, the seismic sources geometry and a complete and homogeneous seismic catalog were defined; the parameters of seismic rate of each one of the seismic sources occurrence were calculated establishing a national seismotectonic model. Several of attenuation-distance relationships were selected depending on the type of seismicity considered. The seismic hazard was estimated using the CRISIS2007 software created by the Engineering Institute of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México -UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico). A uniformly spaced grid each 0.1° was used to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectral values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3.0 seconds with return periods of 75, 225, 475, 975 and 2475 years. For each site, a uniform hazard spectrum and exceedance rate curves were calculated. With the results, it is possible to determinate environments and scenarios where the seismic hazard is a function of distance and magnitude and also the principal seismic sources that contribute to the seismic hazard at each site (dissagregation). This project was conducted by the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (Colombian Geological Survey) and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia (National University of Colombia), with the collaboration of national and foreign experts and the National System of Prevention and Attention of Disaster (SNPAD). It is important to stand out that this new seismic hazard map was used in the updated national building code (NSR-10). A new process is ongoing in order to improve and present the Seismic Hazard Map in terms of intensity. This require new knowledge in site effects, in both local and regional scales, checking the existing and develop new acceleration to intensity relationships, in order to obtain results more understandable and useful for a wider range of users, not only in the engineering field, but also all the risk assessment and management institutions, research and general community.

The Influence of Environmental Hazard Maps on Risk Beliefs, Emotion, and Health-related Behavioral Intentions

PubMed Central

Severtson, Dolores

2013-01-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N=446) answered questions for a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem’s seriousness mediated attributes’ influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. PMID:23533022

Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Haller, Kathleen M.; McCaffrey, Robert; Hammond, William C.; Bird, Peter; Moschetti, Morgan; Shen, Zhengkang; Bormann, Jayne; Thatcher, Wayne

2014-01-01

The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

Wildland inventory and resource modeling for Douglas and Carson City Counties, Nevada, using LANDSAT and digital terrain data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brass, J. A.; Likens, W. C.; Thornhill, R. R.

1983-01-01

The potential of using LANDSAT satellite imagery to map and inventory pinyon-juniper desert forest types in Douglas and Carson City Counties, Nevada was demonstrated. Specific map and statistical products produced include land cover, mechanical operations capability, big game winter range habitat, fire hazard, and forest harvestability. The Nevada Division of Forestry determined that LANDSAT can produce a reliable and low-cost resource data. Added benefits become apparent when the data are linked to a geographical information system (GIS) containing existing ownership, planning, elevation, slope, and aspect information.

Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2017-12-01

Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher-than-mapped shaking — arises by chance or reflects biases in the map. Due to this problem, there are limits to how well we can expect hazard maps to predict future shaking, as well as to our ability to test the performance of a hazard map based on available observations.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Risk and resilience in the shale gas context: a nexus perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosales, T. Y.; Notte, C. A.; Allen, D. M.; Kirste, D. M.

2014-12-01

The accelerated exploration for and development of unconventional gas plays around the world has raised public concern about potential risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a risk assessment framework specific to shale gas development is proposed. The framework aims to quantify and/or qualify both risk and resilience within a water-energy nexus context, using a comprehensive approach that considers environment, health and policy. The risk assessment framework is intended to be flexible so that it can be used in different regions, but will be tested in North East British Columbia, Canada where shale gas development is rapidly expanding. The main components of risk include hazards, susceptibility and potential consequences, which will be evaluated in space and time using ArcGIS software. The hazards are associated with all phases of shale gas development and include: water, air, and soil contamination; water use (surface and groundwater), and land use disturbance, and their assessment will take into account where they may occur, their frequency, duration and magnitude. Hazard-specific susceptibility maps will be generated based on the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g. soil, geology, hydrology, topography) as well as water source information (e.g. well locations), community footprints, etc. When combined with an evaluation of potential consequences, the resulting set of spatial risk maps can then be used for water resource management, land use planning, and industry permitting. Resilience, which buffers risk, here considers the existing regulatory framework and whether or not existing regulations can mitigate risk by reducing the hazard potential or consequences. The study considers how regulations may fully, partially, or inadequately mitigate the consequences of a given hazard. If development is to continue at its current pace in North East BC, it is imperative that decision-makers recognize the changing risk and resilience profiles and respond with appropriate policy. A critical component of the study comprises a gap analysis of current regulation and a possible path forward.

A lava flow simulation model for the development of volcanic hazard maps for Mount Etna (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, M. L.; Groppelli, G.; Norini, G.; Bertino, E.; Gigliuto, A.; Nucita, A.

2006-05-01

Volcanic hazard assessment is of paramount importance for the safeguard of the resources exposed to volcanic hazards. In the paper we present ELFM, a lava flow simulation model for the evaluation of the lava flow hazard on Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), the most important active volcano in Europe. The major contributions of the paper are: (a) a detailed specification of the lava flow simulation model and the specification of an algorithm implementing it; (b) the definition of a methodological framework for applying the model to the specific volcano. For what concerns the former issue, we propose an extended version of an existing stochastic model that has been applied so far only to the assessment of the volcanic hazard on Lanzarote and Tenerife (Canary Islands). Concerning the methodological framework, we claim model validation is definitely needed for assessing the effectiveness of the lava flow simulation model. To that extent a strategy has been devised for the generation of simulation experiments and evaluation of their outcomes.

A new concept in seismic landslide hazard analysis for practical application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chyi-Tyi

2017-04-01

A seismic landslide hazard model could be constructed using deterministic approach (Jibson et al., 2000) or statistical approach (Lee, 2014). Both approaches got landslide spatial probability under a certain return-period earthquake. In the statistical approach, our recent study found that there are common patterns among different landslide susceptibility models of the same region. The common susceptibility could reflect relative stability of slopes at a region; higher susceptibility indicates lower stability. Using the common susceptibility together with an earthquake event landslide inventory and a map of topographically corrected Arias intensity, we can build the relationship among probability of failure, Arias intensity and the susceptibility. This relationship can immediately be used to construct a seismic landslide hazard map for the region that the empirical relationship built. If the common susceptibility model is further normalized and the empirical relationship built with normalized susceptibility, then the empirical relationship may be practically applied to different region with similar tectonic environments and climate conditions. This could be feasible, when a region has no existing earthquake-induce landslide data to train the susceptibility model and to build the relationship. It is worth mentioning that a rain-induced landslide susceptibility model has common pattern similar to earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility in the same region, and is usable to build the relationship with an earthquake event landslide inventory and a map of Arias intensity. These will be introduced with examples in the meeting.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

The influence of environmental hazard maps on risk beliefs, emotion, and health-related behavioral intentions.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J

2013-08-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N = 446) answered questions about a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem's seriousness mediated attributes' influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hazard Detection Software for Lunar Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huertas, Andres; Johnson, Andrew E.; Werner, Robert A.; Montgomery, James F.

2011-01-01

The Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project is developing a system for safe and precise manned lunar landing that involves novel sensors, but also specific algorithms. ALHAT has selected imaging LIDAR (light detection and ranging) as the sensing modality for onboard hazard detection because imaging LIDARs can rapidly generate direct measurements of the lunar surface elevation from high altitude. Then, starting with the LIDAR-based Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) algorithm developed for Mars Landing, JPL has developed a mature set of HDA software for the manned lunar landing problem. Landing hazards exist everywhere on the Moon, and many of the more desirable landing sites are near the most hazardous terrain, so HDA is needed to autonomously and safely land payloads over much of the lunar surface. The HDA requirements used in the ALHAT project are to detect hazards that are 0.3 m tall or higher and slopes that are 5 or greater. Steep slopes, rocks, cliffs, and gullies are all hazards for landing and, by computing the local slope and roughness in an elevation map, all of these hazards can be detected. The algorithm in this innovation is used to measure slope and roughness hazards. In addition to detecting these hazards, the HDA capability also is able to find a safe landing site free of these hazards for a lunar lander with diameter .15 m over most of the lunar surface. This software includes an implementation of the HDA algorithm, software for generating simulated lunar terrain maps for testing, hazard detection performance analysis tools, and associated documentation. The HDA software has been deployed to Langley Research Center and integrated into the POST II Monte Carlo simulation environment. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations determine the required ground spacing between LIDAR samples (ground sample distances) and the noise on the LIDAR range measurement. This simulation has also been used to determine the effect of viewing on hazard detection performance. The software has also been deployed to Johnson Space Center and integrated into the ALHAT real-time Hardware-in-the-Loop testbed.

Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2010-01-01

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor using an evidential reasoning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Youhua; Liu, Jinpeng; Tian, Feng; Wang, Dekai

2017-02-01

The Hexi Corridor is an important part of the Silk Road Economic Belt and a crucial channel for westward development in China. Many important national engineering projects pass through the corridor, such as highways, railways, and the West-to-East Gas Pipeline. The frequent torrent disasters greatly impact the security of infrastructure and human safety. In this study, an evidential reasoning approach based on Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed for mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor. A torrent hazard map for the Hexi Corridor was generated by integrating the driving factors of mountain torrent disasters including precipitation, terrain, flow concentration processes, and the vegetation fraction. The results show that the capability of the proposed method is satisfactory. The torrent hazard map shows that there is high potential torrent hazard in the central and southeastern Hexi Corridor. The results are useful for engineering planning support and resource protection in the Hexi Corridor. Further efforts are discussed for improving torrent hazard mapping and prediction.

Modelling Multi Hazard Mapping in Semarang City Using GIS-Fuzzy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugraha, A. L.; Awaluddin, M.; Sasmito, B.

2018-02-01

One important aspect of disaster mitigation planning is hazard mapping. Hazard mapping can provide spatial information on the distribution of locations that are threatened by disaster. Semarang City as the capital of Central Java Province is one of the cities with high natural disaster intensity. Frequent natural disasters Semarang city is tidal flood, floods, landslides, and droughts. Therefore, Semarang City needs spatial information by doing multi hazard mapping to support disaster mitigation planning in Semarang City. Multi Hazards map modelling can be derived from parameters such as slope maps, rainfall, land use, and soil types. This modelling is done by using GIS method with scoring and overlay technique. However, the accuracy of modelling would be better if the GIS method is combined with Fuzzy Logic techniques to provide a good classification in determining disaster threats. The Fuzzy-GIS method will build a multi hazards map of Semarang city can deliver results with good accuracy and with appropriate threat class spread so as to provide disaster information for disaster mitigation planning of Semarang city. from the multi-hazard modelling using GIS-Fuzzy can be known type of membership that has a good accuracy is the type of membership Gauss with RMSE of 0.404 the smallest of the other membership and VAF value of 72.909% of the largest of the other membership.

Publications - DDS 10 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska Products Interactive Interactive Map Alaska Tsunami Inundation Maps Keywords Coastal and River; Geologic

Geology, tephrochronology, radiometric ages, and cross sections of the Mark West Springs 7.5' quadrangle, Sonoma and Napa counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, R.J.; Sarna-Wojicki, A. M.; Fleck, R.J.; Wright, W.H.; Levin, V.R.G.; Valin, Z.C.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this geologic map is to provide a context within which to interpret the Neogene evolution of the active strike-slip fault system traversing the Mark West Springs 7.5' quadrangle and adjacent areas. Based on this geologic framework, the timing and total amounts of displacement and the Neogene rates of slip for faults of the right-stepover area between the Healdsburg and Maacama Faults are addressed.The Mark West Springs quadrangle is located in the northern California Coast Ranges north of San Francisco Bay. It is underlain by Mesozoic rocks of the Franciscan Complex, the Coast Range ophiolite, and the Great Valley sequence, considered here to be the pre-Tertiary basement of the northern Coast Ranges. These rocks are overlain by a complexly interstratified and mildly to moderately deformed sequence of Pleistocene to late Miocene marine and nonmarine sedimentary and largely subaerial volcanic rocks. These rocks and unconformably overlying, less-deformed Holocene and Pleistocene strata are cut by the active right-lateral Healdsburg and Maacama Fault Zones.Mapping of the Mark West Springs quadrangle began in 1996 and was completed in October 2002. Most of the mapping presented here is original, although a few other sources of existing geologic mapping were also utilized. Funding for the project was provided by the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping and Earthquake Hazards Reduction programs of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with geologic hazards mapping investigations of the California Geological Survey.

Project of Near-Real-Time Generation of ShakeMaps and a New Hazard Map in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Yan; Weginger, Stefan; Horn, Nikolaus; Hausmann, Helmut; Lenhardt, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Target-orientated prevention and effective crisis management can reduce or avoid damage and save lives in case of a strong earthquake. To achieve this goal, a project for automatic generated ShakeMaps (maps of ground motion and shaking intensity) and updating the Austrian hazard map was started at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) in 2015. The first goal of the project is set for a near-real-time generation of ShakeMaps following strong earthquakes in Austria to provide rapid, accurate and official information to support the governmental crisis management. Using newly developed methods and software by SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) and GEM (Global Earthquake Model), which allows a transnational analysis at European level, a new generation of Austrian hazard maps will be ultimately calculated. More information and a status of our project will be given by this presentation.

Central US earthquake catalog for hazard maps of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, R.L.; Mueller, C.S.

2001-01-01

An updated version of the catalog that was used for the current national probabilistic seismic-hazard maps would suffice for production of large-scale hazard maps of the Memphis urban area. Deaggregation maps provide guidance as to the area that a catalog for calculating Memphis hazard should cover. For the future, the Nuttli and local network catalogs could be examined for earthquakes not presently included in the catalog. Additional work on aftershock removal might reduce hazard uncertainty. Graphs of decadal and annual earthquake rates suggest completeness at and above magnitude 3 for the last three or four decades. Any additional work on completeness should consider the effects of rapid, local population changes during the Nation's westward expansion. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Frozen Stiff: Cartographic Design and Permafrost Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, F. E.; Li, J.; Nyland, K. E.

2016-12-01

Maps are the primary vehicle used to communicate geographical relationships. Ironically, interest in the formal practice of cartography, the art and science of geographic visualization, has fallen significantly during a period when the sophistication and availability of GIS software has increased dramatically. Although the number of geographically oriented permafrost studies has increased significantly in recent years, little discussion about competing visualization strategies, map accuracy, and the psychophysical impact of cartographic design is evident in geocryological literature. Failure to use the full potential of the tools and techniques that contemporary cartographic and spatial-analytic theory makes possible affects our ability to effectively and accurately communicate the impacts and hazards associated with thawing permafrost, particularly in the context of global climate change. This presentation examines recent permafrost studies involving primarily small-scale (large area) mapping, and suggests cartographic strategies for rectifying existing problems.

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ohlmacher, G.C.; Davis, J.C.

2003-01-01

Landslides in the hilly terrain along the Kansas and Missouri rivers in northeastern Kansas have caused millions of dollars in property damage during the last decade. To address this problem, a statistical method called multiple logistic regression has been used to create a landslide-hazard map for Atchison, Kansas, and surrounding areas. Data included digitized geology, slopes, and landslides, manipulated using ArcView GIS. Logistic regression relates predictor variables to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within geographic cells and uses the relationship to produce a map showing the probability of future landslides, given local slopes and geologic units. Results indicated that slope is the most important variable for estimating landslide hazard in the study area. Geologic units consisting mostly of shale, siltstone, and sandstone were most susceptible to landslides. Soil type and aspect ratio were considered but excluded from the final analysis because these variables did not significantly add to the predictive power of the logistic regression. Soil types were highly correlated with the geologic units, and no significant relationships existed between landslides and slope aspect. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

The effect of directivity in a PSHA framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2012-09-01

We propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). This study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters, by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps. Two strategies have been followed. One considers the seismic source as an extended source, and it is valid when the PSHA seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments. We show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 20 per cent of the hazard level in case of dip-slip faults with uniform distribution of hypocentre location, in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 s, exceeding probability of 10 per cent in 50 yr. The second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas, where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event. In our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture-related parameters, defined using a statistical description. As an example, we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike-slip faulting style. With the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100 per cent (for strike-slip, unilateral faults). The introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level, but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation. A general increase appears only when no a priori information is available. However, nowadays good a priori knowledge exists on style of faulting, dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps. The percentage of variation obtained is strongly dependent on the type of model chosen to represent analytically the directivity effect. Therefore, it is our aim to emphasize more on the methodology following which, all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic seismic hazard formulation.

Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

2016-04-01

The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the probability for occurrence of future earthquakes with a defined area distribution of their seismic intensity, depending on the natural characteristics of the terrain. The period of 10.000 years represents the greatest expected seismic threat for the considered area. From the aspect of low-cost construction, it is also necessary to know the seismicity in shorter time periods, as well. Therefore, maps for return time periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years have also been elaborated. The maps show a probability of 63% for occurrence of expected earthquakes with maximum intensities expressed on the MCS scale. The map has been elaborated to the scale of 1: 1.000.000, while the obtained isolines of seismic intensity are drawn with an error of  5 km. The seismic hazard map of R. Macedonia is used for: • The needs of the Rulebook on Technical Norms on Construction of Structures in Seismic Areas and for the needs of physical and urban planning and design. • While defining the seismic design parameters for construction of structures in zones with intensity of I  VII degrees MSK, investigations should be done for detailed seismic zoning and microzoning of the terrain of these zones in compliance with the technical regulations for construction in seismically prone areas. • The areas on the map indicated by intensity X MCS are not regulated by the valid regulations. Therefore, in practice, these should be treated as such in which it is not possible to construct any structures without previous surveys. • Revision of this map is done at a five year period, i.e., after each occurred earthquake whose parameters are such that require modifications and amendments of the map.

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2006-01-01

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

How to Display Hazards and other Scientific Data Using Google Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venezky, D. Y.; Fee, J. M.

2007-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Volcano Hazard Program (VHP) is launching a map-based interface to display hazards information using the Google® Map API (Application Program Interface). Map-based interfaces provide a synoptic view of data, making patterns easier to detect and allowing users to quickly ascertain where hazards are in relation to major population and infrastructure centers. Several map-based interfaces are now simple to run on a web server, providing ideal platforms for sharing information with colleagues, emergency managers, and the public. There are three main steps to making data accessible on a map-based interface; formatting the input data, plotting the data on the map, and customizing the user interface. The presentation, "Creating Geospatial RSS and ATOM feeds for Map-based Interfaces" (Fee and Venezky, this session), reviews key features for map input data. Join us for this presentation on how to plot data in a geographic context and then format the display with images, custom markers, and links to external data. Examples will show how the VHP Volcano Status Map was created and how to plot a field trip with driving directions.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

2007-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

New Maximum Tsunami Inundation Maps for Use by Local Emergency Planners in the State of California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Miller, K. M.; Goltz, J. D.; Synolakis, C. E.

2008-12-01

A consortium of tsunami hydrodynamic modelers, geologic hazard mapping specialists, and emergency planning managers is producing maximum tsunami inundation maps for California, covering most residential and transient populated areas along the state's coastline. The new tsunami inundation maps will be an upgrade from the existing maps for the state, improving on the resolution, accuracy, and coverage of the maximum anticipated tsunami inundation line. Thirty-five separate map areas covering nearly one-half of California's coastline were selected for tsunami modeling using the MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model. From preliminary evaluations of nearly fifty local and distant tsunami source scenarios, those with the maximum expected hazard for a particular area were input to MOST. The MOST model was run with a near-shore bathymetric grid resolution varying from three arc-seconds (90m) to one arc-second (30m), depending on availability. Maximum tsunami "flow depth" and inundation layers were created by combining all modeled scenarios for each area. A method was developed to better define the location of the maximum inland penetration line using higher resolution digital onshore topographic data from interferometric radar sources. The final inundation line for each map area was validated using a combination of digital stereo photography and fieldwork. Further verification of the final inundation line will include ongoing evaluation of tsunami sources (seismic and submarine landslide) as well as comparison to the location of recorded paleotsunami deposits. Local governmental agencies can use these new maximum tsunami inundation lines to assist in the development of their evacuation routes and emergency response plans.

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.

1999-01-01

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local government, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, R. S.

2009-12-01

A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

Suitability aero-geophysical methods for generating conceptual soil maps and their use in the modeling of process-related susceptibility maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilch, Nils; Römer, Alexander; Jochum, Birgit; Schattauer, Ingrid

2014-05-01

In the past years, several times large-scale disasters occurred in Austria, which were characterized not only by flooding, but also by numerous shallow landslides and debris flows. Therefore, for the purpose of risk prevention, national and regional authorities also require more objective and realistic maps with information about spatially variable susceptibility of the geosphere for hazard-relevant gravitational mass movements. There are many and various proven methods and models (e.g. neural networks, logistic regression, heuristic methods) available to create such process-related (e.g. flat gravitational mass movements in soil) suszeptibility maps. But numerous national and international studies show a dependence of the suitability of a method on the quality of process data and parameter maps (f.e. Tilch & Schwarz 2011, Schwarz & Tilch 2011). In this case, it is important that also maps with detailed and process-oriented information on the process-relevant geosphere will be considered. One major disadvantage is that only occasionally area-wide process-relevant information exists. Similarly, in Austria often only soil maps for treeless areas are available. However, in almost all previous studies, randomly existing geological and geotechnical maps were used, which often have been specially adapted to the issues and objectives. This is one reason why very often conceptual soil maps must be derived from geological maps with only hard rock information, which often have a rather low quality. Based on these maps, for example, adjacent areas of different geological composition and process-relevant physical properties are razor sharp delineated, which in nature appears quite rarly. In order to obtain more realistic information about the spatial variability of the process-relevant geosphere (soil cover) and its physical properties, aerogeophysical measurements (electromagnetic, radiometric), carried out by helicopter, from different regions of Austria were interpreted. Previous studies show that, especially with radiometric measurements, the two-dimensional spatial variability of the nature of the process-relevant soil, close to the surface can be determined. In addition, the electromagnetic measurements are more important to obtain three-dimensional information of the deeper geological conditions and to improve the area-specific geological knowledge and understanding. The validation of these measurements is done with terrestrial geoelectrical measurements. So both aspects, radiometric and electromagnetic measurements, are important and subsequently, interpretation of the geophysical results can be used as the parameter maps in the modeling of more realistic susceptibility maps with respect to various processes. Within this presentation, results of geophysical measurements, the outcome and the derived parameter maps, as well as first process-oriented susceptibility maps in terms of gravitational soil mass movements will be presented. As an example results which were obtained with a heuristic method in an area in Vorarlberg (Western Austria) will be shown. References: Schwarz, L. & Tilch, N. (2011): Why are good process data so important for the modelling of landslide susceptibility maps?- EGU-Postersession "Landslide hazard and risk assessment, and landslide management" (NH 3.6), Vienna. [http://www.geologie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/pdf/poster/poster_2011_egu_schwarz_tilch_1.pdf] Tilch, N. & Schwarz, L. (2011): Spatial and scale-dependent variability in data quality and their influence on susceptibility maps for gravitational mass movements in soil, modelled by heuristic method.- EGU-Postersession "Landslide hazard and risk assessment, and landslide management" (NH 3.6); Vienna. [http://www.geologie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/pdf/poster/poster_2011_egu_tilch_schwarz.pdf

Method for the Preparation of Hazard Map in Urban Area Using Soil Depth and Groundwater Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong; Cho, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju-Hyoung

2017-04-01

The hazard maps for predicting collapse on natural slopes consists of a combination of topographic, hydrological, and geological factors. Topographic factors are extracted from DEM, including aspect, slope, curvature, and topographic index. Hydrological factors, such as distance to drainage, drainage density, stream-power index, and wetness index are most important factors for slope instability. However, most of the urban areas are located on the plains and it is difficult to apply the hazard map using the topography and hydrological factors. In order to evaluate the risk of collapse of flat and low slope areas, soil depth and groundwater level data were collected and used as a factor for interpretation. In addition, the reliability of the hazard map was compared with the disaster history of the study area (Gangnam-gu and Yeouido district). In the disaster map of the disaster prevention agency, the urban area was mostly classified as the stable area and did not reflect the collapse history. Soil depth, drainage conditions and groundwater level obtained from boreholes were added as input data of hazard map, and disaster vulnerability increased at the location where the actual collapse points. In the study area where damage occurred, the moderate and low grades of the vulnerability of previous hazard map were 12% and 88%, respectively. While, the improved map showed 2% high grade, moderate grade 29%, low grade 66% and very low grade 2%. These results were similar to actual damage. Keywords: hazard map, urban area, soil depth, ground water level Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant from a Strategic Research Project (Horizontal Drilling and Stabilization Technologies for Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Operation) funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

High resolution mapping of flood hazard for South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sourima; Nzerem, Kechi; Zovi, Francesco; Li, Shuangcai; Mei, Yi; Assteerawatt, Anongnart; Hilberts, Arno; Tillmanns, Stephan; Mitas, Christos

2015-04-01

Floods are one of primary natural hazards that affect South Korea. During the past 15 years, catastrophic flood events which mainly have occurred during the rainy and typhoon seasons - especially under condition where soils are already saturated, have triggered substantial property damage with an average annual loss of around US1.2 billion (determined from WAter Management Information System's flood damage database for years 2002-2011) in South Korea. According to Seoul Metropolitan Government, over 16,000 households in the capital city Seoul were inundated during 2010 flood events. More than 10,000 households in Seoul were apparently flooded during one major flood event due to torrential rain in July 2011. Recently in August 2014, a serious flood event due to heavy rainfall hit the Busan region in the south east of South Korea. Addressing the growing needs, RMS has recently released country-wide high resolution combined flood return period maps for post-drainage local "pluvial" inundation and undefended large-scale "fluvial" inundation to aid the government and the insurance industry in the evaluation of comprehensive flood risk. RMS has developed a flood hazard model for South Korea to generate inundation depths and extents for a range of flood return periods. The model is initiated with 30 years of historical meteorological forcing data and calibrated to daily observations at over 100 river gauges across the country. Simulations of hydrologic processes are subsequently performed based on a 2000 year set of stochastic forcing. Floodplain inundation processes are modelled by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. Taking into account the existing stormwater drainage standards, economic exposure densities, etc., reasonable flood maps are created from inundation model output. Final hazard maps at one arcsec grid resolution can be the basis for both evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses in South Korea.

Regional landslide hazard assesment for Kulon Progo Area, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.

2009-12-01

Karanganyar region is situated in a dynamic volcanic region in Java Island, where rain-induced landslides are frequent and widespread. Shallow-rapid earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common landslide type occurring on the steep slope and had resulted in major casualties, whilst deep soil creeping is more prominant on the gentle slope which creat a lot of damages on the houses and infrastructure. A landslide hazard assessment had been conducted to support the landslide mitigation program in this region. Such assessment was carried out by applying a semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process) where a weighting system was applied to assess the level of importance of each controlling parameter as suggested by Saaty (1980). Existing conditions of each controlling parameters were also assessed based on relative hierarchical system by applying scoring. Geographical Information System was used as a tool in such analysis and mapping process. The isohyet map was also prepared from statistical and spatial analyses on rain fall data. Finally, two different scenarios of landslide hazard maps were established, i.e. the scenario without any rainfall (Scenario 1) and with the reainfall (Scenario 2). It was found that the most susceptible zone of landslide was localised on the steep slope (with the inclination beyond 45o ) of jointed andesitic breccia, which was covered by thinck silty clay and situated close to the stream zone (Scenario 1). However from the hazard map and analysis on scenario 2, it can be identified that the susceptible zone expanded larger due to the rainfall, covering most region of the west-slope area of Lawu Volcano. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rainfall intensity is very crucial to induce the landslide not only in the most susceptible zone, but also in the larger area which also include the less susceptbile zone. This findings is also crucial to support the development of landslide spatial-early-warning system in the region.

Creating a Flood Risk Index to Improve Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; El Gammal, L.

2017-12-01

While flood risk reduction is an existent discourse and agenda in policy and insurance, vulnerabilities vary between communities; some communities may have aging infrastructure, or an older/poorer population less able to absorb a flood, putting them at increased risk from the hazards. As a result, some are considering environmental justice aspects of flood risk reduction. To date, catastrophe models have focused on creating floodmaps (e.g., NOAA's Sea Level Rise Viewer, Climate Central's Surging Seas), or on linking hydrological models to economic loss models (e.g., HEC-RAS + HAZUS). However, this approach may be highly inequitable between areas of different income (as well as other demographics). Some have begun work on combining hydrology with vulnerability information (e.g., USACE's North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study). To our knowledge, no one has tried to adapt the more advanced known heat risk theory to water risk by combining hydrology information (e.g., HEC-RAS, floodplain maps) with the social vulnerability (e.g., Cutter et al.) of the residents. This project will create a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to help a community understand their current and future water risk. We will use the case study area of Pittsburgh, PA, which faces severe precipitation and riverine flooding hazards. Building on present literature of factors influencing water vulnerability contextualized to the Pittsburgh region, we will identify, quantify, and map the top factors impacting water vulnerability. We will combine these with flood maps to identify the geospatial distribution of water risk. This work will allow policy makers to identify location-specific aspects of water vulnerability and risk in any community, thus promoting environmental justice. It is possible that this type of original research would create maps of relative water risk that may prove as understandable to the general public as other flood maps, and may also help to promote "just resilience". This presentation will present a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to present work on the geospatial distribution of water risk in Pittsburgh, PA.

Geologic Maps as the Foundation of Mineral-Hazards Maps in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Downey, C. I.; Clinkenbeard, J. P.; Fonseca, M. C.

2010-12-01

The basic geologic map is essential to the development of products that help planners, engineers, government officials, and the general public make decisions concerning natural hazards. Such maps are the primary foundation that the California Geological Survey (CGS) uses to prepare maps that show potential for mineral-hazards. Examples of clients that request these maps are the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Largely because of their non-catastrophic nature, mineral hazards have received much less public attention compared to earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods. Nonetheless, mineral hazards can be a major concern locally when considering human health and safety and potential contamination of the environment by human activities such as disposal of earth materials. To address some of these concerns, the CGS has focused its mineral-hazards maps on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), radon, and various potentially toxic metals as well as certain artificial features such as mines and oil and gas wells. The maps range in scope from statewide to counties and Caltrans districts to segments of selected highways. To develop the hazard maps, the CGS begins with traditional paper and digital versions of basic geologic maps, which are obtained from many sources such as its own files, the USGS, USDA Forest Service, California Department of Water Resources, and counties. For each study area, these maps present many challenges of compilation related to vintage, scale, definition of units, and edge-matching across map boundaries. The result of each CGS compilation is a digital geologic layer that is subsequently reinterpreted and transformed into new digital layers (e.g., lithologic) that focus on the geochemical and mineralogical properties of the area’s earth materials and structures. These intermediate layers are then integrated with other technical data to derive final digital layers that show potential for mineral hazards. Depending on the type of mineral hazard investigated, qualitative and/or quantitative methods are used in this process. The final information is given to CGS clients in various formats that range from traditional paper maps to attributed digital layers, which can be viewed on background digital imagery in 2D or 3D with image viewers or GIS software. This variety of formats assures that users with different levels of computer experience or available computer resources can access the information. Besides the applications presented here, mineral-hazards mapping can also be used in many other settings and situations as a tool to evaluate potential effects on human health and the environment. Examples include fighting forest fires, harvesting of timber, post-fire debris flows during storms, disposal or import of earth materials for non-highway construction projects, and rural areas used for recreation (hiking, motorcycling, etc.). In the future, the CGS expects to investigate and possibly employ more-sophisticated digital algorithms to rate and display the potential for specific mineral hazards on its maps. The geologist’s knowledge and experience will still be needed, however, to review these digital results to decide if they are reasonable.

Flood maps in Europe - methods, availability and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; van Alphen, J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2009-03-01

To support the transition from traditional flood defence strategies to a flood risk management approach at the basin scale in Europe, the EU has adopted a new Directive (2007/60/EC) at the end of 2007. One of the major tasks which member states must carry out in order to comply with this Directive is to map flood hazards and risks in their territory, which will form the basis of future flood risk management plans. This paper gives an overview of existing flood mapping practices in 29 countries in Europe and shows what maps are already available and how such maps are used. Roughly half of the countries considered have maps covering as good as their entire territory, and another third have maps covering significant parts of their territory. Only five countries have very limited or no flood maps available yet. Of the different flood maps distinguished, it appears that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced floods maps (in 23 countries), but flood depth maps are also regularly created (in seven countries). Very few countries have developed flood risk maps that include information on the consequences of flooding. The available flood maps are mostly developed by governmental organizations and primarily used for emergency planning, spatial planning, and awareness raising. In spatial planning, flood zones delimited on flood maps mainly serve as guidelines and are not binding. Even in the few countries (e.g. France, Poland) where there is a legal basis to regulate floodplain developments using flood zones, practical problems are often faced which reduce the mitigating effect of such binding legislation. Flood maps, also mainly extent maps, are also created by the insurance industry in Europe and used to determine insurability, differentiate premiums, or to assess long-term financial solvency. Finally, flood maps are also produced by international river commissions. With respect to the EU Flood Directive, many countries already have a good starting point to map their flood hazards. A flood risk based map that includes consequences, however, has yet to be developed by most countries.

78 FR 45941 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

... (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations) as shown on the indicated Letter of Map Revision (LOMR... Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and in some cases the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports, currently in effect... respective Community Map Repository address listed in the table below and online through the FEMA Map Service...

Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, Amin; Bharath, Raja; Lakhanpal, Anchit; Ceola, Serena; Montanari, Alberto; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

2017-04-01

In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to water-related problems are uncommon. In this study, a national-scale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the effect of the overglow phenomenon on flood risk mapping.

Using hazard maps to identify and eliminate workplace hazards: a union-led health and safety training program.

PubMed

Anderson, Joe; Collins, Michele; Devlin, John; Renner, Paul

2012-01-01

The Institute for Sustainable Work and Environment and the Utility Workers Union of America worked with a professional evaluator to design, implement, and evaluate the results of a union-led system of safety-based hazard identification program that trained workers to use hazard maps to identify workplace hazards and target them for elimination. The evaluation documented program implementation and impact using data collected from both qualitative interviews and an on-line survey from worker trainers, plant managers, and health and safety staff. Managers and workers reported that not only were many dangerous hazards eliminated as a result of hazard mapping, some of which were long-standing, difficult-to-resolve issues, but the evaluation also documented improved communication between union members and management that both workers and managers agreed resulted in better, more sustainable hazard elimination.

Approximating Long-Term Statistics Early in the Global Precipitation Measurement Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.

2017-01-01

Long-term precipitation records are vital to many applications, especially the study of extreme events. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has served this need, but TRMMs successor mission, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), does not yet provide a long-term record. Quantile mapping, the conversion of values across paired empirical distributions, offers a simple, established means to approximate such long-term statistics, but only within appropriately defined domains. This method was applied to a case study in Central America, demonstrating that quantile mapping between TRMM and GPM data maintains the performance of a real-time landslide model. Use of quantile mapping could bring the benefits of the latest satellite-based precipitation dataset to existing user communities such as those for hazard assessment, crop forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and disease tracking.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

2009-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the methodology and data used to generate these preliminary maps. For more details about many of the topics in this summary the reader is referred to the Karadeniz (2007) and Chung (2007) Ph.D. theses.

UNESCO World Heritage Site Hallstatt: Rockfall hazard and risk assessment as basis for a sustainable land-use planning- a case study from the Eastern Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melzner, Sandra; Mölk, Michael; Schiffer, Michael; Gasperl, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

In times of decreasing financial resources, the demand for the investment in protection measures with a positive return on investment is of high importance. Hazard and risk assessments are essential tools in order to ensure an economically justifiable application of money in the implementation of preventive measures. Many areas in the Eastern Alps are recurrently affected by rockfall processes which pose a significant hazard to settlements and infrastructures. Complex tectonic, lithological and geomorphologic settings require a sufficient amount of effort to map and collect high quality data to perform a reliable hazard and risk analysis. The present work summarizes the results of a detailed hazard and risk assessment performed in a community in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Upper Austroalpine Unit). The community Hallstatt is exposed to very steep limestone cliffs, which are highly susceptible towards future, in many parts high magnitude rock failures. The analysis of the record of former events shows that since 1652 several rockfall events damaged or destroyed houses and killed or injured some people. Hallstatt as a Unesco World Heritage Site represents a very vulnerable settlement, the risk being elevated by a high frequency tourism with greater one million visitors per year. Discussion will focus on the applied methods to identify and map the rockfall hazard and risk, including a magnitude-frequency analysis of events in the past and an extrapolation in the future as well as a vulnerability analysis for the existing infrastructure under the assumed events for the determined magnitude-frequency scenarios. Furthermore challenges for a decision making in terms of a sustainable land use planning and implementation of preventive measures will be discussed.

Development of a liquefaction hazard screening tool for caltrans bridge sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knudsen, K.-L.; Bott, J.D.J.; Woods, M.O.; McGuire, T.L.

2009-01-01

We have developed a liquefaction hazard screening tool for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) that is being used to evaluate the liquefaction hazard to approximately 13,000 bridge sites in California. Because of the large number of bridge sites to be evaluated, we developed a tool that makes use of parameters not typically considered in site-specific liquefaction investigations. We assessed geologic, topographic, seismic hazard, and subsurface conditions at about 100 sites of past liquefaction in California. Among the parameters we found common to many of these sites are: (a) low elevations, (b) proximity to a water body, and (c) presence of geologically youthful deposits or artificial fill materials. The nature of the study necessitated the use of readily available data, preferably datasets that are consistent across the state. The screening tool we provided to Caltrans makes use of the following parameters: (1) proximity to a water body, (2) whether the bridge crosses a water body, (3) the age of site geologic materials and the environment in which the materials were deposited, as discerned from available digital geologic maps, (4) probabilistic shaking estimates, (5) the site elevation, (6) information from available liquefaction hazard maps [covering the 9-county San Francisco Bay Area and Ventura County] and California Geological Survey (CGS) Zones of Required Investigation. For bridge sites at which subsurface boring data were available (from CGS' existing database), we calculated Displacement Potential Index values using a methodology developed by Allison Faris and Jiaer Wu. Caltrans' staff will use this hazard-screening tool, along with other tools focused on bridges and foundations, to prioritize site-specific investigations. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Microzonation Mapping Of The Yanbu Industrial City, Western Saudi Arabia: A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, Sayed, Sr.; Alarifi, Nassir S.; Lashin, Aref A.

2016-04-01

Urban areas along the western coast of Saudi Arabia are susceptible to natural disasters and environmental damages due to lack of planning. To produce a site-specific microzonation map of the rapidly growing Yanbu industrial city, spatial distribution of different hazard entities are assessed using the Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) together with Geographical Information System (GIS). For this purpose six hazard parameter layers are considered, namely; fundamental frequency, site amplification, soil strength in terms of effective shear-wave velocity, overburden sediment thickness, seismic vulnerability index and peak ground acceleration. The weight and rank values are determined during AHP and are assigned to each layer and its corresponding classes, respectively. An integrated seismic microzonation map was derived using GIS platform. Based on the derived map, the study area is classified into five hazard categories: very low, low, moderate high, and very high. The western and central parts of the study area, as indicated from the derived microzonation map, are categorized as a high hazard zone as compared to other surrounding places. The produced microzonation map of the current study is envisaged as a first-level assessment of the site specific hazards in the Yanbu city area, which can be used as a platform by different stakeholders in any future land-use planning and environmental hazard management.

Assessing Seismic Hazards - Algorithms, Maps, and Emergency Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferriz, H.

2007-05-01

Public officials in charge of building codes, land use planning, and emergency response need sound estimates of seismic hazards. Sources may be well defined (e.g., active faults that have a surface trace) or diffuse (e.g., a subduction zone or a blind-thrust belt), but in both cases one can use a deterministic or worst-case scenario approach. For each scenario, a design earthquake is selected based on historic data or the known length of Holocene ruptures (as determined by geologic mapping). Horizontal ground accelerations (HGAs) can then be estimated at different distances from the earthquake epicenter using published attenuation relations (e.g., Seismological Res. Letters, v. 68, 1997) and estimates of the elastic properties of the substrate materials. No good algorithms are available to take into account reflection of elastic waves across other fault planes (e.g., a common effect in California, where there are many strands of the San Andreas fault), or amplification of waves in water-saturated alluvial and lacustrine basins (e.g., the Mexico City basin), but empirical relations can be developed by correlating historic damage patterns with predicted HGAs. The ultimate result is a map of HGAs. With this map, and with additional data on depth to groundwater and geotechnical properties of local soils, a liquefaction susceptibility map can be prepared, using published algorithms (e.g., J. of Geotech. Geoenv. Eng., v. 127, p. 817-833, 2001; Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 579-594, 2001). Finally, the HGA estimates, digital elevation models, geologic structural data, and geotechnical properties of local geologic units can be used to prepare a slope failure susceptibility map (e.g., Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 77-94, 2001). Seismic hazard maps are used by: (1) Building officials to determine areas of the city where special construction codes have to be implemented, and where existing buildings may need to be retrofitted. (2) Planning officials to evaluate plans for new growth (though in most cities land use patterns are historically established). (3) Emergency response officials to plan emergency operations. (4) Insurance commissioners to estimate losses and insurance claims (e.g., with FEMA's software HAZUS).

Landslide susceptibility mapping by combining the three methods Fuzzy Logic, Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process in Dozain basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tazik, E.; Jahantab, Z.; Bakhtiari, M.; Rezaei, A.; Kazem Alavipanah, S.

2014-10-01

Landslides are among the most important natural hazards that lead to modification of the environment. Therefore, studying of this phenomenon is so important in many areas. Because of the climate conditions, geologic, and geomorphologic characteristics of the region, the purpose of this study was landslide hazard assessment using Fuzzy Logic, frequency ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process method in Dozein basin, Iran. At first, landslides occurred in Dozein basin were identified using aerial photos and field studies. The influenced landslide parameters that were used in this study including slope, aspect, elevation, lithology, precipitation, land cover, distance from fault, distance from road and distance from river were obtained from different sources and maps. Using these factors and the identified landslide, the fuzzy membership values were calculated by frequency ratio. Then to account for the importance of each of the factors in the landslide susceptibility, weights of each factor were determined based on questionnaire and AHP method. Finally, fuzzy map of each factor was multiplied to its weight that obtained using AHP method. At the end, for computing prediction accuracy, the produced map was verified by comparing to existing landslide locations. These results indicate that the combining the three methods Fuzzy Logic, Frequency Ratio and Analytical Hierarchy Process method are relatively good estimators of landslide susceptibility in the study area. According to landslide susceptibility map about 51% of the occurred landslide fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the landslide susceptibility map, but approximately 26 % of them indeed located in the low and very low susceptibility zones.

Proposed satellite laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry sites for crustal dynamics investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowman, P. D.; Allenby, R. J.; Frey, H. V.

1979-01-01

Recommendations are presented for a global network of 125 sites for geodetic measurements by satellite laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry. The sites were proposed on the basis of existing facilities and scientific value for investigation of crustal dynamics as related to earthquake hazards. Tectonic problems are discussed for North America peripheral regions and for the world. The sites are presented in tables and maps, with bibliographic references.

Mesh versus bathtub - effects of flood models on exposure analysis in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

In Switzerland, mainly two types of maps that indicate potential flood zones are available for flood exposure analyses: 1) Aquaprotect, a nationwide overview provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and 2) communal flood hazard maps available from the 26 cantons. The model used to produce Aquaprotect can be described as a bathtub approach or linear superposition method with three main parameters, namely the horizontal and vertical distance of a point to water features and the size of the river sub-basin. Whereas the determination of flood zones in Aquaprotect is based on a uniform, nationwide model, the communal flood hazard maps are less homogenous, as they have been elaborated either at communal or cantonal levels. Yet their basic content (i.e. indication of potential flood zones for three recurrence periods, with differentiation of at least three inundation depths) is described in national directives and the vast majority of communal flood hazard maps are based on 2D inundation simulations using meshes. Apart from the methodical differences between Aquaprotect and the communal flood hazard maps (and among different communal flood hazard maps), all of these maps include a layer with a similar recurrence period (i.e. Aquaprotect 250 years, flood hazard maps 300 years) beyond the intended protection level of installed structural systems. In our study, we compare the resulting exposure by overlaying the two types of flood maps with a complete, harmonized, and nationwide dataset of building polygons. We assess the different exposure at the national level, and also consider differences among the 26 cantons and the six biogeographically unique regions, respectively. It was observed that while the nationwide exposure rates for both types of flood maps are similar, the differences within certain cantons and biogeographical regions are remarkable. We conclude that flood maps based on bathtub models are appropriate for assessments at national levels, while maps based on 2D simulations are preferable at sub-national levels.

An Offline-Online Android Application for Hazard Event Mapping Using WebGIS Open Source Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

Nowadays, Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) plays an important role in better understanding and managing disaster risk reduction around the world. National and local government, NGOs and other stakeholders are increasingly seeking and producing data on hazards. Most of the hazard event inventories and land use mapping are based on remote sensing data, with little ground truthing, creating difficulties depending on the terrain and accessibility. Open Source WebGIS tools offer an opportunity for quicker and easier ground truthing of critical areas in order to analyse hazard patterns and triggering factors. This study presents a secure mobile-map application for hazard event mapping using Open Source WebGIS technologies such as Postgres database, Postgis, Leaflet, Cordova and Phonegap. The objectives of this prototype are: 1. An Offline-Online android mobile application with advanced Geospatial visualisation; 2. Easy Collection and storage of events information applied services; 3. Centralized data storage with accessibility by all the service (smartphone, standard web browser); 4. Improving data management by using active participation in hazard event mapping and storage. This application has been implemented as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events and includes geolocation (GPS data and Internet), visualizing maps with overlay of satellite images, viewing uploaded images and events as cluster points, drawing and adding event information. The data can be recorded in offline (Android device) or online version (all browsers) and consequently uploaded through the server whenever internet is available. All the events and records can be visualized by an administrator and made public after approval. Different user levels can be defined to access the data for communicating the information. This application was tested for landslides in post-earthquake Nepal but can be used for any other type of hazards such as flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, WebGIS Open source, Android, Hazard Event Mapping

The VIDA Framework as an Education Tool: Leveraging Volcanology Data for Educational Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

2009-04-01

The VIDA Framework as an Education Tool: Leveraging Volcanology Data for Educational Purposes Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. While the basic intention of VIDA is to support disaster risk reduction efforts, there are several methods of leveraging raw science data to support education across a wide demographic. Basic geophysical data could be used to educate school children about the characteristics of volcanoes, satellite mappings could support informed growth and development of societies in at-risk areas, and raw sensor data could contribute to a wide range of university-level research projects. Satellite maps, basic geophysical data, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

Integration of landslide susceptibility products in the environmental plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Federica; Reichenbach, Paola; Rossi, Mauro; Cardinali, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

2015-04-01

Landslides are one of the most destructive natural hazard that causes damages to urban area worldwide. The knowledge of where a landslide could occur is essential for the strategic management of the territory and for a good urban planning . In this contest landslide susceptibility zoning (LSZ) is crucial to provide information on the degree to which an area can be affected by future slope movements. Despite landslide susceptibility maps have been prepared extensively during the last decades, there are few examples of application is in the environmental plans (EP). In this work we present a proposal for the integration of the landslide inventory map with the following landslide susceptibility products: (i) landslide susceptibility zonation , (ii) the associated error map and (iii) the susceptibility uncertainty map. Moreover we proposed to incorporate detailed morphological studies for the evaluation of landslide risk associated to local parceling plan. The integration of all this information is crucial for the management of landslide risk in urban expansions forecasts. Municipality, province and regional administration are often not able to support the costs of landslide risk evaluation for extensive areas but should concentrate their financial resources to specific hazardous and unsafe situations defined by the result of the integration of landslide susceptibility products. Zonation and detail morphological analysis should be performed taking into account the existing laws and regulations, and could become a starting point to discuss new regulations for the landslide risk management.

The Cellular Automata for modelling of spreading of lava flow on the earth surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarna, A.

2012-12-01

Volcanic risk assessment is a very important scientific, political and economic issue in densely populated areas close to active volcanoes. Development of effective tools for early prediction of a potential volcanic hazard and management of crises are paramount. However, to this date volcanic hazard maps represent the most appropriate way to illustrate the geographical area that can potentially be affected by a volcanic event. Volcanic hazard maps are usually produced by mapping out old volcanic deposits, however dynamic lava flow simulation gaining popularity and can give crucial information to corroborate other methodologies. The methodology which is used here for the generation of volcanic hazard maps is based on numerical simulation of eruptive processes by the principle of Cellular Automata (CA). The python script is integrated into ArcToolbox in ArcMap (ESRI) and the user can select several input and output parameters which influence surface morphology, size and shape of the flow, flow thickness, flow velocity and length of lava flows. Once the input parameters are selected, the software computes and generates hazard maps on the fly. The results can be exported to Google Maps (.klm format) to visualize the results of the computation. For validation of the simulation code are used data from a real lava flow. Comparison of the simulation results with real lava flows mapped out from satellite images will be presented.

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, M.D.; Mueller, C.S.

2011-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellgren, S.

2013-07-01

In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address - in research as well as in practice - since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s maps of earthquake shaking hazards provide information essential to creating and updating the seismic design provisions of building codes and insurance rates used in the United States. Periodic revisions of these maps incorporate the results of new research. Buildings, bridges, highways, and utilities built to meet modern seismic design provisions are better able to withstand earthquakes, not only saving lives but also enabling critical activities to continue with less disruption. These maps can also help people assess the hazard to their homes or places of work and can also inform insurance rates.

Evaluation of seismic design spectrum based on UHS implementing fourth-generation seismic hazard maps of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ali; Hasan, Rafiq; Pekau, Oscar A.

2016-12-01

Two recent developments have come into the forefront with reference to updating the seismic design provisions for codes: (1) publication of new seismic hazard maps for Canada by the Geological Survey of Canada, and (2) emergence of the concept of new spectral format outdating the conventional standardized spectral format. The fourth -generation seismic hazard maps are based on enriched seismic data, enhanced knowledge of regional seismicity and improved seismic hazard modeling techniques. Therefore, the new maps are more accurate and need to incorporate into the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code (CHBDC) for its next edition similar to its building counterpart National Building Code of Canada (NBCC). In fact, the code writers expressed similar intentions with comments in the commentary of CHBCD 2006. During the process of updating codes, NBCC, and AASHTO Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington (2009) lowered the probability level from 10 to 2% and 10 to 5%, respectively. This study has brought five sets of hazard maps corresponding to 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years developed by the GSC under investigation. To have a sound statistical inference, 389 Canadian cities are selected. This study shows the implications of the changes of new hazard maps on the design process (i.e., extent of magnification or reduction of the design forces).

Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.

2001-01-01

A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between cross sections, and can generate working maps across a broad range of scales, for any selected area, and overlayed with easily updated cultural features. Local governments are aggressively collecting very-high-accuracy elevation data for numerous reasons; this not only lowers the cost and increases accuracy of flood maps, but also inherently boosts the level of community involvement in the mapping process. These elevation data are also ideal for hydraulic modeling, should an existing model be judged inadequate.

Improvements on flood alleviation in Germany: lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002.

PubMed

Petrow, Theresia; Thieken, Annegret H; Kreibich, Heidi; Bahlburg, Cord Heinrich; Merz, Bruno

2006-11-01

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a "Lessons Learned" study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Laender) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for "unthinkable extreme events" beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.

Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.

2015-01-01

The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

First USGS urban seismic hazard maps predict the effects of soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Gomberg, J.S.; Schweig, E.S.; Waldron, B.A.; Tucker, K.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase 1.0 s probabilistic ground motions by ???100%. Probabilistic peak ground accelerations remain at levels similar to the national maps, although the ground motion gradient across Shelby County is reduced and ground motions are more uniform within the county. The M7.7 scenario maps show ground motions similar to the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic maps. As an effect of local geology, both M7.7 and M6.2 scenario maps show a more uniform seismic ground-motion hazard across Shelby County than scenario maps with constant site conditions (i.e., NEHRP B/C boundary).

A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosta, G. B.; Agliardi, F.

Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

Earthquake and tsunami hazard in West Sumatra: integrating science, outreach, and local stakeholder needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaughey, J.; Lubis, A. M.; Huang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Hill, E. M.; Eriksson, S.; Sieh, K.

2012-04-01

The Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) is building partnerships with local to provincial government agencies, NGOs, and educators in West Sumatra to inform their policymaking, disaster-risk-reduction, and education efforts. Geodetic and paleoseismic studies show that an earthquake as large as M 8.8 is likely sometime in the coming decades on the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust. This earthquake and its tsunami would be devastating for the Mentawai Islands and neighboring areas of the western Sumatra coast. The low-lying coastal Sumatran city of Padang (pop. ~800,000) has been the object of many research and outreach efforts, especially since 2004. Padang experienced deadly earthquakes in 2007 and 2009 that, though tragedies in their own right, served also as wake-up calls for a larger earthquake to come. However, there remain significant barriers to linking science to policy: extant hazard information is sometimes contradictory or confusing for non-scientists, while turnover of agency leadership and staff means that, in the words of one local advocate, "we keep having to start from zero." Both better hazard knowledge and major infrastructure changes are necessary for risk reduction in Padang. In contrast, the small, isolated villages on the outlying Mentawai Islands have received relatively fewer outreach efforts, yet many villages have the potential for timely evacuation with existing infrastructure. Therefore, knowledge alone can go far toward risk reduction. The tragic October 2010 Mentawai tsunami has inspired further disaster-risk reduction work by local stakeholders. In both locations, we are engaging policymakers and local NGOs, providing science to help inform their work. Through outreach contacts, the Mentawai government requested that we produce the first-ever tsunami hazard map for their islands; this aligns well with scientific interests at EOS. We will work with the Mentawai government on the presentation and explanation of the hazard map, as well as assessment of its impact at the district and village levels. We are also providing science and teaching examples for an NGO-led program to integrate disaster-risk reduction into the Mentawai primary-school curriculum. We are working with our partners to develop a participatory monitoring scheme. Indicators will include the degree to which policy is informed by science, whether communities develop and publicise evacuation routes based on hazard mapping, whether and how frequently communities practice evacuation simulations, and whether hazard information is incorporated into school curricula.

Natural hazard risk assessment and management in the Matter valley, Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herz, T.; King, L.; Philippi, S.

2003-04-01

The Matter valley has a length of about 40 km and is surrounded by some of the highest peaks of the Alps resulting in extreme altitudinal differences and a continental character of the climate. These climatic conditions cause a high glacier equilibrium line and therefore a periglacial belt of a large vertical extend. Due to the high relief energy, all kinds of natural hazards typical for high mountain environments occur. The steep western slopes are dominated by rockfalls, slope instabilities in bedrock and avalanches. A widespread cover of unconsolidated sediments on the eastern slopes induces landslides and debris flows, which often reach down to the valley bottom where they can dam up the river. Increasing population and modern land use forms required a more and more sensitive attitude towards natural hazard potentials in this endangered area. Assessment and management of natural hazard risks have been much improved during the last fifteen years and increasing amounts of money are spent each year in order to safeguard settlements, traffic lines, and other objects of the technical infrastructure. Numerous investigations concerning natural hazard risks have been made and the results are considered in the actual land use planning of the Canton. The planning law of the Canton Valais defines risk zones as areas, which are endangered by natural hazards like avalanches, rockfalls, landslides and floodings. Risk assessment is done by overview maps (scale 1:25,000) which are specified by detailed risk analyses consisting of registers and detailed maps (scale 1:2,000 to 1:10,000). These analyses are integrated in the land zoning by defining zones of high, medium and low danger, associated with corresponding prohibitions, restrictions and conditions for utilisation. At present, the incorporation of the avalanche and rockfall register in local zoning plans is completed in most communities of the Canton Valais. An additional inventory of 200 slope instabilities was elaborated and must be considered in present and future local zonation updates. However, zones threatened by floods are only indicated on maps of overview and no planning standards for the management of debris flow hazards exist so far. The Canton is currently carrying out numerous projects of active disaster prevention comprising measurements and constructional precautions against avalanches and slope instabilities as well as monitoring systems and early warning stations.

The Gars Programme And The Integrated Global Observing Strategy For Geohazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, S.; Paganini, M.; Missotten, R.; Palazzo, F.

UNESCO and the IUGS have funded the Geological Applications of Remote Sensing Programme (GARS) since 1984. Its aim is to assess the value and utility of remotely sensed data for geoscience, whilst at the same time building capacity in developing countries. It has run projects in Africa on geological mapping, in Latin America on landslide hazards and in Asia on volcanic hazards. It is a main sponsor of the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) for Geohazards. The societal impact of geological and related geophysical hazards is enormous. Every year volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and subsidence claim thousands of lives, injure thousands more, devastate homes and destroy livelihoods. Damaged infrastructure and insurance premiums increase these costs. As population increases, more people live in hazardous areas and the impact grows. The World Summit on Sustainable Development recognised that systematic, joint international observations under initiatives like the Integrated Global Observing Strategy form the basis for an integrated approach to hazard mitigation and preparedness. In this context, the IGOS Partners developed this geohazards theme. Its goal is to integrate disparate, multidisciplinary, applied research into global, operational systems by filling gaps in organisation, observation and knowledge. It has four strategic objectives; building global capacity to mitigate geohazards; improving mapping, monitoring and forecasting, based on satellite and ground-based observations; increasing preparedness, using integrated geohazards information products and improved geohazards models; and promoting global take-up of local best practice in geohazards management. Gaps remain between what is known and the knowledge required to answer citizen's questions, what is observed and what must be observed to provide the necessary information for hazard mitigation and current data integration and the integration needed to make useful geohazard information products. An action plan is proposed that is designed to close these gaps. Priority actions are to: begin networking within the geohazards community; improve topographic data provision using existing observations and secure continuity of C- and L-Band radar interferometry with the space agencies; assess the potential for existing data to be integrated into geohazard products and services; evaluate ways to improve databases with their managing agencies; and initiate research that increases geohazards knowledge. This paper presents the strategy and describes the action plan that will implement it over the next decade, as a key part of the GARS Programme.

Hazard-Specific Vulnerability Mapping for Water Security in a Shale Gas Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Holding, S.; McKoen, Z.

2015-12-01

Northeast British Columbia (NEBC) is estimated to hold large reserves of unconventional natural gas and has experienced rapid growth in shale gas development activities over recent decades. Shale gas development has the potential to impact the quality and quantity of surface and ground water. Robust policies and sound water management are required to protect water security in relation to the water-energy nexus surrounding shale gas development. In this study, hazard-specific vulnerability mapping was conducted across NEBC to identify areas most vulnerable to water quality and quantity deterioration due to shale gas development. Vulnerability represents the combination of a specific hazard threat and the susceptibility of the water system to that threat. Hazard threats (i.e. potential contamination sources and water abstraction) were mapped spatially across the region. The shallow aquifer susceptibility to contamination was characterised using the DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability approach, while the aquifer susceptibility to abstraction was mapped according to aquifer productivity. Surface water susceptibility to contamination was characterised on a watershed basis to describe the propensity for overland flow (i.e. contaminant transport), while watershed discharge estimates were used to assess surface water susceptibility to water abstractions. The spatial distribution of hazard threats and susceptibility were combined to form hazard-specific vulnerability maps for groundwater quality, groundwater quantity, surface water quality and surface water quantity. The vulnerability maps identify priority areas for further research, monitoring and policy development. Priority areas regarding water quality occur where hazard threat (contamination potential) coincide with high aquifer susceptibility or high overland flow potential. Priority areas regarding water quantity occur where demand is estimated to represent a significant proportion of estimated supply. The identification of priority areas allows for characterization of the vulnerability of water security in the region. This vulnerability mapping approach, using the hazard threat and susceptibility indicators, can be applied to other shale gas areas to assess vulnerability to shale gas activities and support water security.

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques.

PubMed

Pardeshi, Sudhakar D; Autade, Sumant E; Pardeshi, Suchitra S

2013-01-01

Landslide hazard assessment is an important step towards landslide hazard and risk management. There are several methods of Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) viz. heuristic, semi quantitative, quantitative, probabilistic and multi-criteria decision making process. However, no one method is accepted universally for effective assessment of landslide hazards. In recent years, several attempts have been made to apply different methods of LHZ and to compare results in order to find the best suited model. This paper presents the review of researches on landslide hazard mapping published in recent years. The advanced multivariate techniques are proved to be effective in spatial prediction of landslides with high degree of accuracy. Physical process based models also perform well in LHZ mapping even in the areas with poor database. Multi-criteria decision making approach also play significant role in determining relative importance of landslide causative factors in slope instability process. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) are powerful tools to assess landslide hazards and are being used extensively in landslide researches since last decade. Aerial photographs and high resolution satellite data are useful in detection, mapping and monitoring landslide processes. GIS based LHZ models helps not only to map and monitor landslides but also to predict future slope failures. The advancements in Geo-spatial technologies have opened the doors for detailed and accurate assessment of landslide hazards.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Soil amplification maps for estimating earthquake ground motions in the Central US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bauer, R.A.; Kiefer, J.; Hester, N.

2001-01-01

The State Geologists of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC) are developing maps to assist State and local emergency managers and community officials in evaluating the earthquake hazards for the CUSEC region. The state geological surveys have worked together to produce a series of maps that show seismic shaking potential for eleven 1 X 2 degree (scale 1:250 000 or 1 in. ??? 3.9 miles) quadrangles that cover the high-risk area of the New Madrid Seismic Zone in eight states. Shear wave velocity values for the surficial materials were gathered and used to classify the soils according to their potential to amplify earthquake ground motions. Geologic base maps of surficial materials or 3-D material maps, either existing or produced for this project, were used in conjunction with shear wave velocities to classify the soils for the upper 15-30 m. These maps are available in an electronic form suitable for inclusion in the federal emergency management agency's earthquake loss estimation program (HAZUS). ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Flooding Hazard Maps of Different Land Uses in Subsidence Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yongjun; Chang, Hsiangkuan; Tan, Yihchi

2017-04-01

This study aims on flooding hazard maps of different land uses in the subsidence area of southern Taiwan. Those areas are low-lying due to subsidence resulting from over pumping ground water for aquaculture. As a result, the flooding due to storm surges and extreme rainfall are frequent in this area and are expected more frequently in the future. The main land uses there include: residence, fruit trees, and aquaculture. The hazard maps of the three land uses are investigated. The factors affecting hazards of different land uses are listed below. As for residence, flooding depth, duration of flooding, and rising rate of water surface level are factors affecting its degree of hazard. High flooding depth, long duration of flooding, and fast rising rate of water surface make residents harder to evacuate. As for fruit trees, flooding depth and duration of flooding affects its hazard most due to the root hypoxia. As for aquaculture, flooding depth affects its hazard most because the high flooding depth may cause the fish flush out the fishing ponds. An overland flow model is used for simulations of hydraulic parameters for factors such as flooding depth, rising rate of water surface level and duration of flooding. As above-mentioned factors, the hazard maps of different land uses can be made and high hazardous are can also be delineated in the subsidence areas.

A Framework for the Validation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Maps Using Strong Ground Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S. A.; Beroza, G. C.

2015-12-01

Recent debate on the efficacy of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), and the utility of hazard maps (i.e. Stein et al., 2011; Hanks et al., 2012), has prompted a need for validation of such maps using recorded strong ground motion data. Unfortunately, strong motion records are limited spatially and temporally relative to the area and time windows hazard maps encompass. We develop a framework to test the predictive powers of PSHA maps that is flexible with respect to a map's specified probability of exceedance and time window, and the strong motion receiver coverage. Using a combination of recorded and interpolated strong motion records produced through the ShakeMap environment, we compile a record of ground motion intensity measures for California from 2002-present. We use this information to perform an area-based test of California PSHA maps inspired by the work of Ward (1995). Though this framework is flexible in that it can be applied to seismically active areas where ShakeMap-like ground shaking interpolations have or can be produced, this testing procedure is limited by the relatively short lifetime of strong motion recordings and by the desire to only test with data collected after the development of the PSHA map under scrutiny. To account for this, we use the assumption that PSHA maps are time independent to adapt the testing procedure for periods of recorded data shorter than the lifetime of a map. We note that accuracy of this testing procedure will only improve as more data is collected, or as the time-horizon of interest is reduced, as has been proposed for maps of areas experiencing induced seismicity. We believe that this procedure can be used to determine whether PSHA maps are accurately portraying seismic hazard and whether discrepancies are localized or systemic.

Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) - Progress Report, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.; Haase, Jennifer L.; Moore, David W.

2009-01-01

Maps of surficial geology, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard, and liquefaction potential index have been prepared by various members of the Evansville Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project for seven quadrangles in the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, metropolitan areas. The surficial geologic maps feature 23 types of surficial geologic deposits, artificial fill, and undifferentiated bedrock outcrop and include alluvial and lake deposits of the Ohio River valley. Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard and liquefaction hazard mapping is made possible by drawing on a wealth of information including surficial geologic maps, water well logs, and in-situ testing profiles using the cone penetration test, standard penetration test, down-hole shear wave velocity tests, and seismic refraction tests. These data were compiled and collected with contributions from the Indiana Geological Survey, Kentucky Geological Survey, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey, and Purdue University. Hazard map products are in progress and are expected to be completed by the end of 2009, with a public roll out in early 2010. Preliminary results suggest that there is a 2 percent probability that peak ground accelerations of about 0.3 g will be exceeded in much of the study area within 50 years, which is similar to the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for a firm rock site value. Accelerations as high as 0.4-0.5 g may be exceeded along the edge of the Ohio River basin. Most of the region outside of the river basin has a low liquefaction potential index (LPI), where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 (that is, there is a high potential for liquefaction) for a M7.7 New Madrid type event is only 20-30 percent. Within the river basin, most of the region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 for a New Madrid type event is 80-100 percent.

Seismic hazard in the South Carolina coastal plain: 2002 update of the USGS national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Mays, T.W.; ,

2005-01-01

The damaging 1886 moment magnitude ???7 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake is indicative of the moderately likely earthquake activity along this portion of the Atlantic Coast. A recurrence of such an earthquake today would have serious consequences for the nation. The national seismic hazard maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide a picture of the levels of seismic hazard across the nation based on the best and most current scientific information. The USGS national maps were updated in 2002 and will become part of the International Codes in 2006. In the past decade, improvements have occurred in the scientific understanding of the nature and character of earthquake activity and expected ground motions in the central and eastern U.S. The paper summarizes the new knowledge of expected earthquake locations, magnitudes, recurrence, and ground-motion decay with distance. New estimates of peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration are compared with those displayed in the 1996 national maps. The 2002 maps show increased seismic hazard in much of the coastal plain of South Carolina, but a decrease in long period (1 s and greater) hazard by up to 20% at distances of over 50 km from the Charleston earthquake zone. Although the national maps do not account for the effects of local or regional sediments, deep coastal-plain sediments can significally alter expected ground shaking, particularly at long period motions where it can be 100% higher than the national maps.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

How well should probabilistic seismic hazard maps work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, K.; Stein, S.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2016-12-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in earthquake hazard maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSHA model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating the shaking history of an area with assumed distribution of earthquakes, frequency-magnitude relation, temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation. We compare the "observed" shaking at many sites over time to that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. PSHA predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that mapped is p = 1 - exp(t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. This implies that shaking in large earthquakes is typically greater than shown on hazard maps, as has occurred in a number of cases. A large number of simulated earthquake histories yield distributions of shaking consistent with this forecast, with a scatter about this value that decreases as t/T increases. The median results are somewhat lower than predicted for small values of t/T and approach the predicted value for larger values of t/T. Hence, the algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. Validation is more complicated because a real observed earthquake history can yield a fractional exceedance significantly higher or lower than that predicted while still being consistent with the hazard map in question. As a result, given that in the real world we have only a single sample, it is hard to assess whether a misfit between a map and observations arises by chance or reflects a biased map.

Geologic map of the Vail West quadrangle, Eagle County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Robert B.; Lidke, David J.; Grunwald, Daniel J.

2002-01-01

This new 1:24,000-scale geologic map of the Vail West 7.5' quadrangle, as part of the USGS Western Colorado I-70 Corridor Cooperative Geologic Mapping Project, provides new interpretations of the stratigraphy, structure, and geologic hazards in the area on the southwest flank of the Gore Range. Bedrock strata include Miocene tuffaceous sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic and upper Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and undivided Early(?) Proterozoic metasedimentary and igneous rocks. Tuffaceous rocks are found in fault-tilted blocks. Only small outliers of the Dakota Sandstone, Morrison Formation, Entrada Sandstone, and Chinle Formation exist above the redbeds of the Permian-Pennsylvanian Maroon Formation and Pennsylvanian Minturn Formation, which were derived during erosion of the Ancestral Front Range east of the Gore fault zone. In the southwestern area of the map, the proximal Minturn facies change to distal Eagle Valley Formation and the Eagle Valley Evaporite basin facies. The Jacque Mountain Limestone Member, previously defined as the top of the Minturn Formation, cannot be traced to the facies change to the southwest. Abundant surficial deposits include Pinedale and Bull Lake Tills, periglacial deposits, earth-flow deposits, common diamicton deposits, common Quaternary landslide deposits, and an extensive, possibly late Pliocene landslide deposit. Landscaping has so extensively modified the land surface in the town of Vail that a modified land-surface unit was created to represent the surface unit. Laramide movement renewed activity along the Gore fault zone, producing a series of northwest-trending open anticlines and synclines in Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata, parallel to the trend of the fault zone. Tertiary down-to-the-northeast normal faults are evident and are parallel to similar faults in both the Gore Range and the Blue River valley to the northeast; presumably these are related to extensional deformation that occurred during formation of the northern end of the Rio Grande rift system in Colorado. In the southwestern part of the map area, a diapiric(?) exposure of the Eagle Valley Evaporite exists and chaotic faults and folds suggest extensive dissolution and collapse of overlying bedrock, indicating the presence of a geologic hazard. Quaternary landslides are common and indicate that landslide hazards are widespread in the area, particularly where old slide deposits are disturbed by construction. The late Pliocene(?) landslide that consists largely of a smectitic upper Morrison Formation matrix and boulders of Dakota Sandstone is readily reactivated. Debris flows are likely to invade low-standing areas within the towns of Vail and West Vail where tributaries of Gore Creek issue from the mountains on the north side of the valley.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Geomorphological hazards and environmental impact: Assessment and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizza, Mario

In five sections the author develops the methods for the integration of geomorphological concepts into Environmental Impact and Mapping. The first section introduces the concepts of Impact and Risk through the relationships between Geomorphological Environment and Anthropical Element. The second section proposes a methodology for the determination of Geomorphological Hazard and the identification of Geomorphological Risk. The third section synthesizes the procedure for the compilation of a Geomorphological Hazards Map. The fourth section outlines the concepts of Geomorphological Resource Assessment for the analysis of the Environmental Impact. The fifth section considers the contribution of geomorphological studies and mapping in the procedure for Environmental Impact Assessment.

Spatio Temporal Detection and Virtual Mapping of Landslide Using High-Resolution Airborne Laser Altimetry (lidar) in Densely Vegetated Areas of Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bibi, T.; Azahari Razak, K.; Rahman, A. Abdul; Latif, A.

2017-10-01

Landslides are an inescapable natural disaster, resulting in massive social, environmental and economic impacts all over the world. The tropical, mountainous landscape in generally all over Malaysia especially in eastern peninsula (Borneo) is highly susceptible to landslides because of heavy rainfall and tectonic disturbances. The purpose of the Landslide hazard mapping is to identify the hazardous regions for the execution of mitigation plans which can reduce the loss of life and property from future landslide incidences. Currently, the Malaysian research bodies e.g. academic institutions and government agencies are trying to develop a landslide hazard and risk database for susceptible areas to backing the prevention, mitigation, and evacuation plan. However, there is a lack of devotion towards landslide inventory mapping as an elementary input of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk mapping. The developing techniques based on remote sensing technologies (satellite, terrestrial and airborne) are promising techniques to accelerate the production of landslide maps, shrinking the time and resources essential for their compilation and orderly updates. The aim of the study is to provide a better perception regarding the use of virtual mapping of landslides with the help of LiDAR technology. The focus of the study is spatio temporal detection and virtual mapping of landslide inventory via visualization and interpretation of very high-resolution data (VHR) in forested terrain of Mesilau river, Kundasang. However, to cope with the challenges of virtual inventory mapping on in forested terrain high resolution LiDAR derivatives are used. This study specifies that the airborne LiDAR technology can be an effective tool for mapping landslide inventories in a complex climatic and geological conditions, and a quick way of mapping regional hazards in the tropics.

Remedial Action Plan and site design for stabilization of the inactive uranium mill tailings site at Durango, Colorado: Attachment 2, Geology report. Revised final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-01

Detailed investigations of geologic, geomorphic, and seismic conditions at the Bodo Canyon disposal site were conducted. The purpose of these investigations was basic site characterization and identification of potential geologic hazards that could affect long-term site stability. Subsequent engineering studies, such as analyses of hydrologic and liquefaction hazards, used the data developed in these studies. The geomorphic analysis was employed in the design of effective erosion protection. Studies of the regional and local seismotectonic setting, which included a detailed search for possible capable faults within a 65 kilometer radius of the site, provided the basis for seismic design parameters. Themore » scope of work performed included the following: Compilation and analysis of previous published and unpublished geologic literature and maps; Review of historical and instrumental earthquake data; Review of site-specific subsurface geologic data, including lithologic and geophysical logs of exploratory boreholes advanced in the site area; Photogeologic interpretations of existing conventional aerial photographs; and, Ground reconnaissance and mapping of the site region.« less

78 FR 30258 - Hazardous Materials: Enhanced Enforcement Procedures-Resumption of Transportation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-22

... 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21, which included the Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety... 6, 2012, the President signed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21... This NPRM In MAP-21 Congress directed the Secretary to address certain transportation matters related...

How predictable is the behaviour of torrential processes: two case studies of the summer 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huebl, Johannes; Eisl, Julia; Janu, Stefan; Hanspeter, Pussnig

2013-04-01

Debris flow hazards play an important role in the Austrian Alps since many villages are located on alluvial fans. Most of the mitigation Measures as well as Hazard Zone Maps are designed by engineers of previous generations, who know quite a lot about the torrential behaviour from their experience. But speaking in terms of recurrence intervals of 100 years or even more, human memory is restricted. On the other hand numerical modelling is a fast growing task in dealing with natural hazards. Scenarios of torrential hazards can be defined and accordant deposition pattern, flow depths and velocities are calculated. But of course, errors in the input data must lead to fatal errors in the results, consequently threaten human life in possible affected areas. Thus the need for data collection of exceptional events can help to reproduce the reality in a quite high grade, indeed, but unexpected events are still an issue and pose a challenge to engineers. In summer 2012 two debris flow events occurred in Austria with quite different behaviours, from triggering mechanism and flow behaviour through to deposition: Thunderstorms or long lasting rainfall, slope failures with subsequent channel blockage and dike breaching or linear erosion, one or more debris flows, one huge debris flow surge or a series of debris flow surges, sediments without clay or cohesive material, near channel deposition or outspread deposits. Both debris flows have been unexpected in their dimension, although mitigation measures and hazard maps exist. Both events were documented accurately, first to try to understand the torrential process occurred, second to identify the most fitting mitigation measures, ranging from permanent structures to temporary warning systems.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Kivu rift segment based on a new seismotectonic zonation model (western branch, East African Rift system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi, Mwene Ntabwoba Stanislas; Bondo, Silvanos Fiama; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder

2017-10-01

In the frame of the Belgian GeoRisCA multi-risk assessment project focusing on the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu rift segment in the central part of the western branch of the East African rift system. As the geological and tectonic setting of this region is incompletely known, especially the part lying in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we compiled homogeneous cross-border tectonic and neotectonic maps. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue based on the ISC reviewed earthquake catalogue and supplemented by other local catalogues and new macroseismic epicenter data spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. The final catalogue used for the seismic hazard assessment spans 60 years, from 1955 to 2015, with 359 events and a magnitude of completeness of 4.4. The seismotectonic zonation into 7 seismic source areas was done on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined by the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method. Seismic hazard maps have been computed using existing attenuation laws with the Crisis 2012 software. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates. They also vary laterally in function of the tectonic setting, with the lowest value in the volcanically active Virunga - Rutshuru zone, highest in the currently non-volcanic parts of Lake Kivu, Rusizi valley and North Tanganyika rift zone, and intermediate in the regions flanking the axial rift zone.

AWPA biodeterioration hazard map revisited

Treesearch

Grant T. Kirker; Amy B. Bishell; William J. Hickey

2017-01-01

The fungal decay hazard map used by the American Wood Protection Association (AWPA) currently describes regional decay hazards in ground contact for North America and is based on condition assessments of utility poles from the 1970’s. Current work at the USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory is underway to analyze soil and wood samples from several National...

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation allowed then to generate a building classification. Finally potential damages are derived using damage functions developed during the project by Geosciences Consultants (GSC), by crossing information from hazard maps (maximum water elevations) with building vulnerability maps. The damage maps will then serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes useful for decision makers, local authorities and investors.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Issues in testing the new national seismic hazard model for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Brooks, E. M.; Spencer, B. D.

2016-12-01

It is important to bear in mind that we know little about how earthquake hazard maps actually describe the shaking that will actually occur in the future, and have no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed in the past, and, thus, whether one map performs better than another. Moreover, we should not forget that different maps can be useful for different end users, who may have different cost-and-benefit strategies. Thus, regardless of the specific tests we chose to use, the adopted testing approach should have several key features: We should assess map performance using all the available instrumental, paleo seismology, and historical intensity data. Instrumental data alone span a period much too short to capture the largest earthquakes - and thus strongest shaking - expected from most faults. We should investigate what causes systematic misfit, if any, between the longest record we have - historical intensity data available for the Italian territory from 217 B.C. to 2002 A.D. - and a given hazard map. We should compare how seismic hazard maps developed over time. How do the most recent maps for Italy compare to earlier ones? It is important to understand local divergences that show how the models are developing to the most recent one. The temporal succession of maps is important: we have to learn from previous errors. We should use the many different tests that have been proposed. All are worth trying, because different metrics of performance show different aspects of how a hazard map performs and can be used. We should compare other maps to the ones we are testing. Maps can be made using a wide variety of assumptions, which will lead to different predicted shaking. It is possible that maps derived by other approaches may perform better. Although Italian current codes are based on probabilistic maps, it is important from both a scientific and societal perspective to look at all options including deterministic scenario based ones. Comparing what works better, according to different performance measures, will give valuable insight into key map parameters and assumptions. We may well find that different maps perform better in different applications.

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

Seismic and tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rodriguez, Rafael W.; ten Brink, Uri S.

1999-01-01

Executive SummaryPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The region was subject in historical times to large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. A major downward tilt of the sea floor north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, large submarine rockslides, and an unusually large negative gravity anomaly are also indicative of a tectonically active region. Scientists have so far failed to explain the deformation of this region in a coherent and predictable picture, such as in California, and this has hampered their ability to assess seismic and tsunami hazards in the region. The NE corner of the Caribbean is unique among the seismically-active regions of the United States in that it is mostly covered by water. This fact presents an additional challenge for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation.The workshop, convened in San Juan on March 23-24, 1999, was "historic" in that it brought together for the first time a broad spectrum of scientists, engineers, and public and private sector officials who deal with such diverse questions as tectonic models, probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, prediction of tsunami runup, strong ground motion, building codes, stability of man-made structures, and the public’s preparedness for natural disasters. It was an opportunity for all the participants to find out how their own activity fit into the broad picture of science and how it aids society in hazard assessment and mitigation. In addition, the workshop was offered as a continuing education course at the Colegio de Ingenieros y Agrimensores de Puerto Rico, which assured a rapid dissemination of the results to the local community. A news conference which took place during the workshop alerted the public to the efforts of the USGS, other Federal agencies, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, universities and the private sector.During the first day of the workshop, participants from universities, federal institutions, and consulting firms in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the continental U.S., Dominican Republic, and Europe reviewed the present state of knowledge including a review and discussion of present plate models, recent GPS and seismic reflection data, seismicity, paleoseismology, and tsunamis. The state of earthquake/tsunami studies in Puerto Rico was presented by several faculty members from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. A preliminary seismic hazard map was presented by the USGS and previous hazard maps and economic loss assessments were considered. During the second day, the participants divided into working groups and prepared specific recommendations for future activities in the region along the six following topics below. Highlights of these recommended activities are:Marine geology and geophysics – Acquire deep-penetration seismic reflection and refraction data, deploy temporary ocean bottom seismometer arrays to record earthquakes, collect high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar data of the region, and in particular, the near shore region, and conduct focussed high-resolution seismic studies around faults. Determine slip rates of specific offshore faults. Assemble a GIS database for available marine geological and geophysical data.Paleoseismology and active faults - Field reconnaissance aimed at identifying Quaternary faults and determining their paleoseismic chronology and slip rates, as well as identifying and dating paleoliquefaction features from large earthquakes. Quaternary mapping of marine terraces, fluvial terraces and basins, beach ridges, etc., to establish framework for understanding neotectonic deformation of the island. Interpretation of aerial photography to identify possible Quaternary faults.Earthquake seismology – Determine an empirical seismic attenuation function using observations from local seismic networks and recently-installed broad-band stations. Evaluate existing earthquake catalogs from local networks and regional stations, complete the catalogs. Transcribe the pre-1991 network data from 9-track tape onto more stable archival media. Calibrate instruments of local networks. Use GPS measurement to constrain deformation rates used in seismic-hazard maps.Engineering – Prepare liquefaction susceptibility maps for the urban areas. Update and improve databases for types of site conditions. Collect site effect observations and near-surface geophysical measurements for future local (urban-area) hazard maps. Expand the number of instruments in the strong motion program. Develop fragility curves for Puerto Rico construction types and details, and carry out laboratory testing on selected types of mass-produced construction. Consider tsunami design in shoreline construction projects.Tsunami hazard - Extract tsunami observations from archives and develop a Caribbean historical tsunami database. Analyze prehistoric tsunami deposits. Collect accurate, up-to-date, near-shore topography and bathymetry for accurate inundation models. Prepare tsunami flooding and evacuation maps. Establish a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Evaluate local, regional, national, and global seismic networks and equipment, and their role in a tsunami warning system.Societal concerns – Prepare warning messages, protocols, and evacuation routes for earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Advocate enforcement of existing building codes. Prepare non-technical hazard assessment maps for political and educational uses. Raise the awareness of potentially affected populations by presentations at elementary schools, by the production of a tsunami video, and by distribution of earthquake preparedness manuals in newspaper supplements. Promote partnerships at state and federal level for long-term earthquake and tsunami hazard mitigation. This partnership should also include the private sector such as the insurance industry, telecommunication companies, and the engineering community.The following reports of the various working groups are the cumulative recommendations of the community of scientists, engineers, and public officials, who participated in the workshop. The list of participants and the workshop’s agenda are given in the appendix.Marine and Geology and Geophysics Working GroupPaleoseismology and Active Faults Working GroupJoint Working Group for Earthquake Seismology and EngineeringTsunami Working GroupSocietal Concerns Working Group

Landslide hazard mapping with selected dominant factors: A study case of Penang Island, Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tay, Lea Tien; Alkhasawneh, Mutasem Sh.; Ngah, Umi Kalthum

Landslide is one of the destructive natural geohazards in Malaysia. In addition to rainfall as triggering factos for landslide in Malaysia, topographical and geological factors play important role in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Conventional topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature and profile curvature have been considered as landslide causative factors in many research works. However, other topographic factors such as diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity have not been considered, especially for the research work in landslide hazard analysis in Malaysia. This paper presents landslide hazard mapping using Frequency Ratio (FR) and themore » study area is Penang Island of Malaysia. Frequency ratio approach is a variant of probabilistic method that is based on the observed relationships between the distribution of landslides and each landslide-causative factor. Landslide hazard map of Penang Island is produced by considering twenty-two (22) landslide causative factors. Among these twenty-two (22) factors, fourteen (14) factors are topographic factors. They are elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature, longitudinal curvature, cross section curvature, total curvature, diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity. These topographic factors are extracted from the digital elevation model of Penang Island. The other eight (8) non-topographic factors considered are land cover, vegetation cover, distance from road, distance from stream, distance from fault line, geology, soil texture and rainfall precipitation. After considering all twenty-two factors for landslide hazard mapping, the analysis is repeated with fourteen dominant factors which are selected from the twenty-two factors. Landslide hazard map was segregated into four categories of risks, i.e. Highly hazardous area, Hazardous area, Moderately hazardous area and Not hazardous area. The maps was assessed using ROC (Rate of Curve) based on the area under the curve method (AUC). The result indicates an increase of accuracy from 77.76% (with all 22 factors) to 79.00% (with 14 dominant factors) in the prediction of landslide occurrence.« less

How well can we test probabilistic seismic hazard maps?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, Kris; Stein, Seth; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Vleminckx, Bart

2017-04-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSH model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating shaking histories for an area with assumed uniform distribution of earthquakes, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, Poisson temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). We compare the maximum simulated shaking at many sites over time with that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. The Poisson model predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that of the hazard map is p = 1 - exp(-t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. Exceedance is typically associated with infrequent large earthquakes, as observed in real cases. The ensemble of simulated earthquake histories yields distributions of fractional exceedance with mean equal to the predicted value. Hence, the PSH algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. However, simulated fractional exceedances show a large scatter about the mean value that decreases with increasing t/T, increasing observation time and increasing Gutenberg-Richter a-value (combining intrinsic activity rate and surface area), but is independent of GMPE uncertainty. This scatter is due to the variability of earthquake recurrence, and so decreases as the largest earthquakes occur in more simulations. Our results are important for evaluating the performance of a hazard map based on misfits in fractional exceedance, and for assessing whether such misfit arises by chance or reflects a bias in the map. More specifically, we determined for a broad range of Gutenberg-Richter a-values theoretical confidence intervals on allowed misfits in fractional exceedance and on the percentage of hazard-map bias that can thus be detected by comparison with observed shaking histories. Given that in the real world we only have one shaking history for an area, these results indicate that even if a hazard map does not fit the observations, it is very difficult to assess its veracity, especially for low-to-moderate-seismicity regions. Because our model is a simplified version of reality, any additional uncertainty or complexity will tend to widen these confidence intervals.

Robots, systems, and methods for hazard evaluation and visualization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nielsen, Curtis W.; Bruemmer, David J.; Walton, Miles C.

A robot includes a hazard sensor, a locomotor, and a system controller. The robot senses a hazard intensity at a location of the robot, moves to a new location in response to the hazard intensity, and autonomously repeats the sensing and moving to determine multiple hazard levels at multiple locations. The robot may also include a communicator to communicate the multiple hazard levels to a remote controller. The remote controller includes a communicator for sending user commands to the robot and receiving the hazard levels from the robot. A graphical user interface displays an environment map of the environment proximatemore » the robot and a scale for indicating a hazard intensity. A hazard indicator corresponds to a robot position in the environment map and graphically indicates the hazard intensity at the robot position relative to the scale.« less

Preliminary northeast Asia geodynamics map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parfenov, Leonid M.; Khanchuk, Alexander I.; Badarch, Gombosuren; Miller, Robert J.; Naumova, Vera V.; Nokleberg, Warren J.; Ogasawara, Masatsugu; Prokopiev, Andrei V.; Yan, Hongquan

2003-01-01

This map portrays the geodynamics of Northeast Asia at a scale of 1:5,000,000 using the concepts of plate tectonics and analysis of terranes and overlap assemblages. The map is the result of a detailed compilation and synthesis at 5 million scale and is part of a major international collaborative study of the Mineral Resources, Metallogenesis, and Tectonics of Northeast Asia conducted from 1997 through 2002 by geologists from earth science agencies and universities in Russia, Mongolia, Northeastern China, South Korea, Japan, and the USA. This map is the result of extensive geologic mapping and associated tectonic studies in Northeast Asia in the last few decades and is the first collaborative compilation of the geology of the region at a scale of 1:5,000,000 by geologists from Russia, Mongolia, Northeastern China, South Korea, Japan, and the USA. The map was compiled by a large group of international geologists using the below concepts and definitions during collaborative workshops over a six-year period. The map is a major new compilation and re-interpretation of pre-existing geologic maps of the region. The map is designed to be used for several purposes, including regional tectonic analyses, mineral resource and metallogenic analysis, petroleum resource analysis, neotectonic analysis, and analysis of seismic hazards and volcanic hazards. The map consists of two sheets. Sheet 1 displays the map at a scale of 1:5,000,000, explanation. Sheet 2 displays the introduction, list of map units, and source references. Detailed descriptions of map units and stratigraphic columns are being published separately. This map is one of a series of publications on the mineral resources, metallogenesis, and geodynamics,of Northeast Asia. Companion studies and other articles and maps , and various detailed reports are: (1) a compilation of major mineral deposit models (Rodionov and Nokleberg, 2000; Rodionov and others, 2000; Obolenskiy and others, in press a); (2) a series of metallogenic belt maps (Obolenskiy and others, 2001; in press b); (3) a lode mineral deposits and placer districts location map for Northeast Asia (Ariunbileg and others, in press b); (4) descriptions of metallogenic belts (Rodionov and others, in press); and (5) a database on significant metalliferous and selected nonmetalliferous lode deposits, and selected placer districts (Ariunbileg and others, in press a).

Research, methodology, and applications of probabilistic seismic-hazard mapping of the Central and Eastern United States; minutes of a workshop on June 13-14, 2000, at Saint Louis University

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Perkins, David M.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating and revising its 1996 national seismic-hazard maps for release in 2001. Part of this process is the convening of four regional workshops with earth scientists and other users of the maps. The second of these workshops was sponsored by the USGS and the Mid-America Earthquake Center, and was hosted by Saint Louis University on June 13-14, 2000.The workshop concentrated on the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) east of the Rocky Mountains. The tasks of the workshop were to (1) evaluate new research findings that are relevant to seismic hazard mapping, (2) discuss modifications in the inputs and methodology used in the national maps, (3) discuss concerns by engineers and other users about the scientific input to the maps and the use of the hazard maps in building codes, and (4) identify needed research in the CEUS that can improve the seismic hazard maps and reduce their uncertainties. These minutes summarize the workshop discussions. This is not a transcript; some individual remarks and short discussions of side issues and logistics were omitted. Named speakers were sent a draft of the minutes with a request for corrections of any errors in remarks attributed to them. Nine people returned corrections, amplifications, or approvals of their remarks as reported. The rest of this document consists of the meeting agenda, discussion summaries, and a list of the 60 attendees.

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process has been applied also on the scientific output of MED-SUV WP6, as a tool for the short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For the Campi Flegrei volcanic system, the expected tool has been implemented to compute hazard curves, hazard maps and probability maps for tephra fallout on a target grid covering the Campania region. This allows the end user to visualize the hazard from tephra fallout and its uncertainty. The response of end-users to such products will help to determine to what extent end-users understand them, find them useful, and match their requirements. In order to involve also Etna area in WP6 TASK 3 activities, a questionnaire developed in the VUELCO project (Volcanic Unrest in Europe and Latin America) has been proposed to Sicily Civil Protection officials having decision-making responsibility in case of volcanic unrest at Etna and Stromboli, to survey their opinions and requirements also in case of volcanic unrest

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

A comprehensive population dataset for Afghanistan constructed using GIS-based dasymetric mapping methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Allyson L.; Hubbard, Bernard E.

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the application of dasymetric methods for mapping the distribution of population throughout Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan's population has constantly changed through decades of war and conflict, existing vector and raster GIS datasets (such as point settlement densities and intensities of lights at night) do not adequately reflect the changes. The purposes of this report are (1) to provide historic population data at the provincial and district levels that can be used to chart population growth and migration trends within the country and (2) to provide baseline information that can be used for other types of spatial analyses of Afghanistan, such as resource and hazard assessments; infrastructure and capacity rebuilding; and assisting with international, regional, and local planning.

J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

2015-12-01

An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

Structural Constraints On The Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.; Steacy, S.; Nostro, C.; Scotti, O.; Baumont, D.

Real-time, forward modelling of spatial distributions of potentially damaging after- shocks by calculating stress perturbations due to large earthquakes may produce so- cially useful, time- dependent hazard estimates in the foreseeable future. Such calcula- tions, however, rely on the resolution of a stress perturbation tensor (SPT) onto planes whose geometry is unknown and decisions as to the orientations of these planes have a first order effect on the geometry of the resulting hazard distributions. Commonly, these decisions are based on the assumption that structures optimally oriented for fail- ure in the regional stress field, exist everywhere and stress maps are produced by resolving onto these orientations. Here we investigate this proposition using a 3D cal- culation for the optimally oriented planes (OOPs) for the 1992 Landers earthquake (M = 7.3). We examine the encouraged mechanisms as a function of location and show that enhancement for failure exists over a much wider area than in the equivalent, and more usual, 2.5D calculations. Mechanisms predicted in these areas are not consistent with the local structural geology, however, and corresponding aftershocks are gener- ally not observed. We argue that best hazard estimates will result from geometrically restricted versions of the OOP concept in which observed structure constrains possible orientations for failure.

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Insurance Applications of Active Fault Maps Showing Epistemic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Insurance loss modeling for earthquakes utilizes available maps of active faulting produced by geoscientists. All such maps are subject to uncertainty, arising from lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history. Field work to undertake geological fault investigations drains human and monetary resources, and this inevitably limits the resolution of fault parameters. Some areas are more accessible than others; some may be of greater social or economic importance than others; some areas may be investigated more rapidly or diligently than others; or funding restrictions may have curtailed the extent of the fault mapping program. In contrast with the aleatory uncertainty associated with the inherent variability in the dynamics of earthquake fault rupture, uncertainty associated with lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history is epistemic. The extent of this epistemic uncertainty may vary substantially from one regional or national fault map to another. However aware the local cartographer may be, this uncertainty is generally not conveyed in detail to the international map user. For example, an area may be left blank for a variety of reasons, ranging from lack of sufficient investigation of a fault to lack of convincing evidence of activity. Epistemic uncertainty in fault parameters is of concern in any probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, not least in insurance earthquake risk applications. A logic-tree framework is appropriate for incorporating epistemic uncertainty. Some insurance contracts cover specific high-value properties or transport infrastructure, and therefore are extremely sensitive to the geometry of active faulting. Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) to the capital markets may also be considered. In order for such insurance or ART contracts to be properly priced, uncertainty should be taken into account. Accordingly, an estimate is needed for the likelihood of surface rupture capable of causing severe damage. Especially where a high deductible is in force, this requires estimation of the epistemic uncertainty on fault geometry and activity. Transport infrastructure insurance is of practical interest in seismic countries. On the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey, there is uncertainty over an unbroken segment between the eastern end of the Dazce Fault and Bolu. This may have ruptured during the 1944 earthquake. Existing hazard maps may simply use a question mark to flag uncertainty. However, a far more informative type of hazard map might express spatial variations in the confidence level associated with a fault map. Through such visual guidance, an insurance risk analyst would be better placed to price earthquake cover, allowing for epistemic uncertainty.

Predictive landslide susceptibility mapping using spatial information in the Pechabun area of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Hyun-Joo; Lee, Saro; Chotikasathien, Wisut; Kim, Chang Hwan; Kwon, Ju Hyoung

2009-04-01

For predictive landslide susceptibility mapping, this study applied and verified probability model, the frequency ratio and statistical model, logistic regression at Pechabun, Thailand, using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys, and maps of the topography, geology and land cover were constructed to spatial database. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope gradient, slope aspect and curvature of topography and distance from drainage were calculated from the topographic database. Lithology and distance from fault were extracted and calculated from the geology database. Land cover was classified from Landsat TM satellite image. The frequency ratio and logistic regression coefficient were overlaid for landslide susceptibility mapping as each factor’s ratings. Then the landslide susceptibility map was verified and compared using the existing landslide location. As the verification results, the frequency ratio model showed 76.39% and logistic regression model showed 70.42% in prediction accuracy. The method can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to plan land cover.

USGS approach to real-time estimation of earthquake-triggered ground failure - Results of 2015 workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Wald, David J.; Hamburger, Michael W.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Knudsen, Keith L.; Jibson, Randall W.; Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, Jing; Hearne, Michael; Baise, Laurie G.; Tanyas, Hakan; Marano, Kristin D.

2016-03-30

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards and Landslide Hazards Programs are developing plans to add quantitative hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landsliding and liquefaction to existing real-time earthquake products (ShakeMap, ShakeCast, PAGER) using open and readily available methodologies and products. To date, prototype global statistical models have been developed and are being refined, improved, and tested. These models are a good foundation, but much work remains to achieve robust and defensible models that meet the needs of end users. In order to establish an implementation plan and identify research priorities, the USGS convened a workshop in Golden, Colorado, in October 2015. This document summarizes current (as of early 2016) capabilities, research and operational priorities, and plans for further studies that were established at this workshop. Specific priorities established during the meeting include (1) developing a suite of alternative models; (2) making use of higher resolution and higher quality data where possible; (3) incorporating newer global and regional datasets and inventories; (4) reducing barriers to accessing inventory datasets; (5) developing methods for using inconsistent or incomplete datasets in aggregate; (6) developing standardized model testing and evaluation methods; (7) improving ShakeMap shaking estimates, particularly as relevant to ground failure, such as including topographic amplification and accounting for spatial variability; and (8) developing vulnerability functions for loss estimates.

Incorporating natural hazard assessments into municipal master-plans; case-studies from Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Oded

2010-05-01

The active Dead Sea Rift (DSR) runs along the length of Israel, making the entire state susceptible to earthquake-related hazards. Current building codes generally acknowledge seismic hazards and direct engineers towards earthquake-resistant structures. However, hazard mapping on a scale fit for municipal/governmental planning is subject to local initiative and is currently not mandatory as seems necessary. In the following, a few cases of seismic-hazard evaluation made by the Geological Survey of Israel are presented, emphasizing the reasons for their initiation and the way results were incorporated (or not). The first case is a seismic hazard qualitative micro-zonation invited by the municipality of Jerusalem as part of a new master plan. This work resulted in maps (1:50,000; GIS format) identifying areas prone to (1) amplification of seismic shaking due to site characteristics (outcrops of soft rocks or steep topography) and (2) sites with earthquake induced landslide (EILS) hazard. Results were validated using reports from the 1927, M=6.2 earthquake that originated along the DSR about 30km east of Jerusalem. Although the hazard maps were accepted by municipal authorities, practical use by geotechnical engineers working within the frame of the new master-plan was not significant. The main reason for that is apparently a difference of opinion between the city-engineers responsible for implementing the new master-plan and the geologists responsible of the hazard evaluation. The second case involves evaluation of EILS hazard for two towns located further north along the DSR, Zefat and Tiberias. Both were heavily damaged more than once by strong earthquakes in past centuries. Work was carried out as part of a governmental seismic-hazard reduction program. The results include maps (1:10,000 scales) of sites with high EILS hazard identified within city limits. Maps (in GIS format) were sent to city engineers with reports explaining the methods and results. As far as we know, widespread implementation of the maps within municipal master plans never came about, and there was no open discussion between city engineers and the Geological Survey. The main reasons apparently are (1) a lack, until recently, of mandatory building codes requiring incorporation of EILS hazard; (2) budget priorities; (3) failure to involve municipality personnel in planning and executing the EILS hazard evaluation. These cases demonstrate that for seismic hazard data to be incorporated and implemented within municipal master-plans there needs to be (1) active involvement of municipal officials and engineers from the early planning stages of the evaluation campaign, and (2) a-priori dedication of funds towards implementation of evaluation results.

Tsunami Loss Assessment For Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, Ufuk; Cakti, Eser; Zulfikar, Can; Demircioglu, Mine; Erdik, Mustafa

2010-05-01

Tsunami risk and loss assessment incorporating with the inundation mapping in Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region are presented in this study. The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of North Anatolian Fault System. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard reached very high levels with 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the Main Marmara Fault. Istanbul is the biggest city of Marmara region as well as of Turkey with its almost 12 million inhabitants. It is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey and operates as the financial and trade hub of the country. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbor structures in the country is questionable. These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. The level of expected tsunami hazard in Istanbul is low as compared to earthquake hazard. Yet the assets at risk along the shores of the city make a thorough assessment of tsunami risk imperative. Important residential and industrial centres exist along the shores of the Marmara Sea. Particularly along the northern and eastern shores we see an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between. Following the inundation maps resulting from deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses, vulnerability and risk analyses are presented and the socio-economic losses are estimated. This study is part of EU-supported FP6 project ‘TRANSFER'.

Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

2016-02-01

During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both agencies and by FEMA. The results of the pilot study will help FEMA determine when tsunamis should be considered in mapping coastal hazards, how to predict their impact, how they should be mapped and possibly the construction standards for zones mapped as having a 1 percent or greater chance of suffering a tsunami.

Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

2014-06-30

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives to the NSHM scenario were developed for the Hilton Creek and Hartley Springs Faults to account for different opinions in how far these two faults extend into Long Valley Caldera. For each scenario, ground motions were calculated using the current standard practice: the deterministic seismic hazard analysis program developed by Art Frankel of USGS and three Next Generation Ground Motion Attenuation (NGA) models. Ground motion calculations incorporated the potential amplification of seismic shaking by near-surface soils defined by a map of the average shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (VS30) developed by CGS.In addition to ground shaking and shaking-related ground failure such as liquefaction and earthquake induced landslides, earthquakes cause surface rupture displacement, which can lead to severe damage of buildings and lifelines. For each earthquake scenario, potential surface fault displacements are estimated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Liquefaction occurs when saturated sediments lose their strength because of ground shaking. Zones of potential liquefaction are mapped by incorporating areas where loose sandy sediments, shallow groundwater, and strong earthquake shaking coincide in the earthquake scenario. The process for defining zones of potential landslide and rockfall incorporates rock strength, surface slope, and existing landslides, with ground motions caused by the scenario earthquake.Each scenario is illustrated with maps of seismic shaking potential and fault displacement, liquefaction, and landslide potential. Seismic shaking is depicted by the distribution of shaking intensity, peak ground acceleration, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration. One-second spectral acceleration correlates well with structural damage to surface facilities. Acceleration greater than 0.2 g is often associated with strong ground shaking and may cause moderate to heavy damage. The extent of strong shaking is influenced by subsurface fault dip and near surface materials. Strong shaking is more widespread in the hanging wall regions of a normal fault. Larger ground motions also occur where young alluvial sediments amplify the shaking. Both of these effects can lead to strong shaking that extends farther from the fault on the valley side than on the hill side.The effect of fault rupture displacements may be localized along the surface trace of the mapped earthquake fault if fault geometry is simple and the fault traces are accurately located. However, surface displacement hazards can spread over a few hundred meters to a few kilometers if the earthquake fault has numerous splays or branches, such as the Hilton Creek Fault. Faulting displacements are estimated to be about 1 meter along normal faults in the study area and close to 2 meters along the White Mountains Fault Zone.All scenarios show the possibility of widespread ground failure. Liquefaction damage would likely occur in the areas of higher ground shaking near the faults where there are sandy/silty sediments and the depth to groundwater is 6.1 meters (20 feet) or less. Generally, this means damage is most common near lakes and streams in the areas of strongest shaking. Landslide potential exists throughout the study region. All steep slopes (>30 degrees) present a potential hazard at any level of shaking. Lesser slopes may have landslides within the areas of the higher ground shaking. The landslide hazard zones also are likely sources for snow avalanches during winter months and for large boulders that can be shaken loose and roll hundreds of feet down hill, which happened during the 1980 Mammoth Lakes earthquakes.Whereas methodologies used in estimating ground shaking, liquefaction, and landslides are well developed and have been applied in published hazard maps; methodologies used in estimating surface fault displacement are still being developed. Therefore, this report provides a more in-depth and detailed discussion of methodologies used for deterministic and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses for this project.

Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

2015-04-01

Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known ground motion event. The PSI data were produced within the framework of the Terrafirma project. Terrafirma is a pan- European ground motion information service focused on seismic risk, flood defense and costal lowland subsidence,inactive mines and hydrogeological risks. The produced maps provided substantial information for the land use planning and the civil protection of an area presenting excelent natural beauty and numerous preservable trtaditional villages. Keywords: landslide, psi technique, regional climate models, lanslide susceptibility maps, Greece

Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jing

Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method uses the changes of spectral variables that are sensitive to surface moisture and soil characteristics paired with a supervised classification.

Farm Mapping to Assist, Protect, and Prepare Emergency Responders: Farm MAPPER.

PubMed

Reyes, Iris; Rollins, Tami; Mahnke, Andrea; Kadolph, Christopher; Minor, Gerald; Keifer, Matthew

2014-01-01

Responders such as firefighters and emergency medical technicians who respond to farm emergencies often face complex and unknown environments. They may encounter hazards such as fuels, solvents, pesticides, caustics, and exploding gas storage cylinders. Responders may be unaware of dirt roads within the farm that can expedite their arrival at critical sites or snow-covered manure pits that act as hidden hazards. A response to a farm, unless guided by someone familiar with the operation, may present a risk to responders and post a challenge in locating the victim. This project explored the use of a Web-based farm-mapping application optimized for tablets and accessible via easily accessible on-site matrix barcodes, or quick response codes (QR codes), to provide emergency responders with hazard and resource information to agricultural operations. Secured portals were developed for both farmers and responders, allowing both parties to populate and customize farm maps with icons. Data were stored online and linked to QR codes attached to mailbox posts where emergency responders may read them with a mobile device. Mock responses were conducted on dairy farms to test QR code linking efficacy, Web site security, and field usability. Findings from farmer usability tests showed willingness to enter data as well as ease of Web site navigation and data entry even with farmers who had limited computer knowledge. Usability tests with emergency responders showed ease of QR code connectivity to the farm maps and ease of Web site navigation. Further research is needed to improve data security as well as assess the program's applicability to nonfarm environments and integration with existing emergency response systems. The next phases of this project will expand the program for regional and national use, develop QR code-linked, Web-based extrication guidance for farm machinery for victim entrapment rescue, and create QR code-linked online training videos and materials for limited English proficient immigrant farm workers.

Maps Showing Seismic Landslide Hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Michael, John A.

2009-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =~300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazard zones were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.

2014-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazards were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. This paper presents the main components of the SDSS and the overall design and plans for the user interface.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guzzetti, F.; Reichenbach, P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2003-01-01

Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857-2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 ?? 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60??, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard. ?? European Geosciences Union 2003.

Evaluating the influence of gully erosion on landslide hazard analysis triggered by heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Tsai, Ching-Jun; Peng, Wen-Fei; Yu, Teng-To

2017-04-01

During the rainstorm period such as typhoon or heavy rain, the development of gully will induce a large-scale landslide. The purpose of this study is to assess and quantify the existence and development of gully for the purpose of triggering landslides by analyzing the landslides hazard. Firstly, based on multi-scale DEM data, this study uses wavelet transform to construct an automatic algorithm. The 1-meter DEM is used to evaluate the location and type of gully, and to establish an evaluation model for predicting erosion development.In this study, routes in the Chai-Yi were studied to clarify the damage potential of roadways from local gully. The local of gully is regarded as a parameter to reduce the strength parameter. The distribution of factor of safe (F.S.) is compared with the landslide inventory map. The result of this research could be used to increase the prediction accuracy of landslide hazard analysis due to heavy rainfalls.

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Landslide Hazard Assessment and Mapping in the Guil Catchment (Queyras, Southern French Alps): From Landslide Inventory to Susceptibility Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulleau, Louise; Bétard, François; Carlier, Benoît; Lissak, Candide; Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Landslides are common natural hazards in the Southern French Alps, where they may affect human lives and cause severe damages to infrastructures. As a part of the SAMCO research project dedicated to risk evaluation in mountain areas, this study focuses on the Guil river catchment (317 km2), Queyras, to assess landslide hazard poorly studied until now. In that area, landslides are mainly occasional, low amplitude phenomena, with limited direct impacts when compared to other hazards such as floods or snow avalanches. However, when interacting with floods during extreme rainfall events, landslides may have indirect consequences of greater importance because of strong hillslope-channel connectivity along the Guil River and its tributaries (i.e. positive feedbacks). This specific morphodynamic functioning reinforces the need to have a better understanding of landslide hazards and their spatial distribution at the catchment scale to prevent local population from disasters with multi-hazard origin. The aim of this study is to produce a landslide susceptibility mapping at 1:50 000 scale as a first step towards global estimation of landslide hazard and risk. The three main methodologies used for assessing landslide susceptibility are qualitative (i.e. expert opinion), deterministic (i.e. physics-based models) and statistical methods (i.e. probabilistic models). Due to the rapid development of geographical information systems (GIS) during the last two decades, statistical methods are today widely used because they offer a greater objectivity and reproducibility at large scales. Among them, multivariate analyses are considered as the most robust techniques, especially the logistic regression method commonly used in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, this method like others is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the input data to avoid significant errors in the final results. In particular, a complete and accurate landslide inventory is required before the modelling. The methodology used in our study includes five main steps: (i) a landslide inventory was compiled through extraction of landslide occurrences in existing national databases (BDMvt, RTM), photointerpretation of aerial photographs and extensive field surveys; (ii) the main predisposing factors were identified and implemented as digital layers into a GIS together with the landslide inventory map, thus constituting the predictive variables to introduce into the model; (iii) a logistic regression model was applied to analyze the spatial and mathematical relationships between the response variable (i.e. absence/presence of landslides) and the set of predictive variables (i.e. predisposing factors), after a selection procedure based on statistical tests (χ2-test and Cramer's V coefficient); (iv) an evaluation of the model performance and quality results was conducted using a validation strategy based on ROC curve and AUC analyses; (v) a final susceptibility map in four classes was proposed using a discretization method based on success/prediction rate curves. The results of the susceptibility modelling were finally interpreted and discussed in the light of what was previously known about landslide occurrence and triggering in the study area. The major influence of the distance-to-streams variable on the model confirms the strong hillslope-channel coupling observed empirically during rainfall-induced landslide events.

Comparing the Performance of Commonly Available Digital Elevation Models in GIS-based Flood Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ybanez, R. L.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; David, C. P.

2016-12-01

With climatological hazards increasing globally, the Philippines is listed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to its location in the Western Pacific. Flood hazards mapping and modelling is one of the responses by local government and research institutions to help prepare for and mitigate the effects of flood hazards that constantly threaten towns and cities in floodplains during the 6-month rainy season. Available digital elevation maps, which serve as the most important dataset used in 2D flood modelling, are limited in the Philippines and testing is needed to determine which of the few would work best for flood hazards mapping and modelling. Two-dimensional GIS-based flood modelling with the flood-routing software FLO-2D was conducted using three different available DEMs from the ASTER GDEM, the SRTM GDEM, and the locally available IfSAR DTM. All other parameters kept uniform, such as resolution, soil parameters, rainfall amount, and surface roughness, the three models were run over a 129-sq. kilometer watershed with only the basemap varying. The output flood hazard maps were compared on the basis of their flood distribution, extent, and depth. The ASTER and SRTM GDEMs contained too much error and noise which manifested as dissipated and dissolved hazard areas in the lower watershed where clearly delineated flood hazards should be present. Noise on the two datasets are clearly visible as erratic mounds in the floodplain. The dataset which produced the only feasible flood hazard map is the IfSAR DTM which delineates flood hazard areas clearly and properly. Despite the use of ASTER and SRTM with their published resolution and accuracy, their use in GIS-based flood modelling would be unreliable. Although not as accessible, only IfSAR or better datasets should be used for creating secondary products from these base DEM datasets. For developing countries which are most prone to hazards, but with limited choices for basemaps used in hazards studies, the caution must be taken in the use of globally available GDEMs and higher-resolution DEMs must always be sought.

A simple landslide susceptibility analysis for hazard and risk assessment in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guinau, M.; Vilaplana, J. M.

2003-04-01

In recent years, a number of techniques and methodologies have been developed for mitigating natural disasters. The complexity of these methodologies and the scarcity of material and data series justify the need for simple methodologies to obtain the necessary information for minimising the effects of catastrophic natural phenomena. The work with polygonal maps using a GIS allowed us to develop a simple methodology, which was developed in an area of 473 Km2 in the Departamento de Chinandega (NW Nicaragua). This area was severely affected by a large number of landslides (mainly debris flows), triggered by the Hurricane Mitch rainfalls in October 1998. With the aid of aerial photography interpretation at 1:40.000 scale, amplified to 1:20.000, and detailed field work, a landslide map at 1:10.000 scale was constructed. The failure zones of landslides were digitized in order to obtain a failure zone digital map. A terrain unit digital map, in which a series of physical-environmental terrain factors are represented, was also used. Dividing the studied area into two zones (A and B) with homogeneous physical and environmental characteristics, allows us to develop the proposed methodology and to validate it. In zone A, the failure zone digital map is superimposed onto the terrain unit digital map to establish the relationship between the different terrain factors and the failure zones. The numerical expression of this relationship enables us to classify the terrain by its landslide susceptibility. In zone B, this numerical relationship was employed to obtain a landslide susceptibility map, obviating the need for a failure zone map. The validity of the methodology can be tested in this area by using the degree of superposition of the susceptibility map and the failure zone map. The implementation of the methodology in tropical countries with physical and environmental characteristics similar to those of the study area allows us to carry out a landslide susceptibility analysis in areas where landslide records do not exist. This analysis is essential to landslide hazard and risk assessment, which is necessary to determine the actions for mitigating landslide effects, e.g. land planning, emergency aid actions, etc.

Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

2017-12-01

The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from liquefaction sites in New Zealand and Japan support PGAs below 0.4 g, except at sites within 20 km exhibiting pore-pressure induced acceleration spikes due to cyclic mobility where PGA ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 g. This study is being extended to more detailed seismic and liquefaction hazard studies in five western Tennessee counties under a five year grant from HUD.

Framework for National Flood Risk Assessment for Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Raja, B.; Lakhanpal, A.; Razavi, S.; Ceola, S.; Montanari, A.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, floods have been identified as a standout amongst the most widely recognized catastrophic events, resulting in the loss of life and property. These natural hazards cannot be avoided, but their consequences can certainly be reduced by having prior knowledge of their occurrence and impact. In the context of floods, the terms occurrence and impact are substituted by flood hazard and flood vulnerability, respectively, which collectively define the flood risk. There is a high need for identifying the flood-prone areas and to quantify the risk associated with them. The present study aims at delivering flood risk maps, which prioritize the potential flood risk areas in Canada. The methodology adopted in this study involves integrating various available spatial datasets such as nightlights satellite imagery, land use, population and the digital elevation model, to build a flexible framework for national flood risk assessment for Canada. The flood risk framework assists in identifying the flood-prone areas and evaluating the associated risk. All these spatial datasets were brought to a common GIS platform for flood risk analysis. The spatial datasets deliver the socioeconomic and topographical information that is required for evaluating the flood vulnerability and flood hazard, respectively. Nightlights have been investigated as a tool to be used as a proxy for the human activities to identify areas with regard to economic investment. However, other datasets, including existing flood protection measures, we added to identify a realistic flood assessment framework. Furthermore, the city of Calgary was used as an example to investigate the effect of using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of varying resolutions on risk maps. Along with this, the risk map for the city was further enhanced by including the population data to give a social dimension to the risk map. Flood protection measures play a major role by significantly reducing the flood risk of events with a specific return period. An analysis to update the risk maps when information on protection measures is available was carried out for the city of Winnipeg, Canada. The proposed framework is a promising approach to identify and prioritize flood-prone areas, which are in need of intervention or detailed studies.

Lava inundation zone maps for Mauna Loa, Island of Hawaiʻi, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trusdell, Frank A.; Zoeller, Michael H.

2017-10-12

Lava flows from Mauna Loa volcano, on the Island of Hawaiʻi, constitute a significant hazard to people and property. This report addresses those lava flow hazards, mapping 18 potential lava inundation zones on the island.

Seismic-hazard maps and time histories for the commonwealth of Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

The ground-motion hazard maps and time histories for three earthquake scenarios, expected earthquakes, probable earthquakes, and maximum credible earthquakes on the free surface in hard rock (shear-wave velocity >1,500 m/s), were derived using the de...

Mapping debris-flow hazard in Honolulu using a DEM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellen, Stephen D.; Mark, Robert K.; ,

1993-01-01

A method for mapping hazard posed by debris flows has been developed and applied to an area near Honolulu, Hawaii. The method uses studies of past debris flows to characterize sites of initiation, volume at initiation, and volume-change behavior during flow. Digital simulations of debris flows based on these characteristics are then routed through a digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate degree of hazard over the area.

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

An integrated approach to flood hazard assessment on alluvial fans using numerical modeling, field mapping, and remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pelletier, J.D.; Mayer, L.; Pearthree, P.A.; House, P.K.; Demsey, K.A.; Klawon, J.K.; Vincent, K.R.

2005-01-01

Millions of people in the western United States live near the dynamic, distributary channel networks of alluvial fans where flood behavior is complex and poorly constrained. Here we test a new comprehensive approach to alluvial-fan flood hazard assessment that uses four complementary methods: two-dimensional raster-based hydraulic modeling, satellite-image change detection, fieldbased mapping of recent flood inundation, and surficial geologic mapping. Each of these methods provides spatial detail lacking in the standard method and each provides critical information for a comprehensive assessment. Our numerical model simultaneously solves the continuity equation and Manning's equation (Chow, 1959) using an implicit numerical method. It provides a robust numerical tool for predicting flood flows using the large, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) necessary to resolve the numerous small channels on the typical alluvial fan. Inundation extents and flow depths of historic floods can be reconstructed with the numerical model and validated against field- and satellite-based flood maps. A probabilistic flood hazard map can also be constructed by modeling multiple flood events with a range of specified discharges. This map can be used in conjunction with a surficial geologic map to further refine floodplain delineation on fans. To test the accuracy of the numerical model, we compared model predictions of flood inundation and flow depths against field- and satellite-based flood maps for two recent extreme events on the southern Tortolita and Harquahala piedmonts in Arizona. Model predictions match the field- and satellite-based maps closely. Probabilistic flood hazard maps based on the 10 yr, 100 yr, and maximum floods were also constructed for the study areas using stream gage records and paleoflood deposits. The resulting maps predict spatially complex flood hazards that strongly reflect small-scale topography and are consistent with surficial geology. In contrast, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) based on the FAN model predict uniformly high flood risk across the study areas without regard for small-scale topography and surficial geology. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

MARSite-MARMARA SUPERSITE: Accomplishments and Outlook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ergintav, Semih; Oguz Ozel, Asım; Italiano, Franco; Favali, Paolo; Bigarre, Pascal; Cakir, Ziyadin; Geli, Louis; Aochi, Hideo; Bossu, Remy; Zulfikar, Can; Sesetyan, Karin

2017-04-01

MARsite Project, funded under FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2 (Grant 308417) and successfully implemented to Marmara Region during 2014-2016 indicated that focusing on the monitoring of the region and the integration of data from land, sea and space and the processing of this composed data based on sound earth-science research is an effective tool for mitigating damage from future earthquakes. This was achieved by monitoring the earthquake hazard through the ground-shaking and forecast maps, short- and long-term earthquake rate forecasting and time-dependent seismic hazard maps to make important risk-mitigation decisions regarding building design, insurance rates, land-use planning, and public-policy issues that need to balance safety and economic and social interests. MARSite has demonstrated the power of the use of different sensors in the assessment of the earthquake hazard. In addition to the more than 30 scientific publication within the MARsite Project framework, a multidisciplinary innovative borehole seismic observatory and a dilatometer have been installed within MARSite where its a data can be used for a range of seismic studies. Due to the encouraging results obtained from this experiment, it was determined that in the future likely smaller number of stations will be required reducing the cost of national seismic networks. The technical infrastructure of the continuous GPS stations of MAGNET network has been updated within MARSite. Tsunami hazard studies in MARSite in Marmara Sea showed that the tsunami hazard in the Marmara Region is primarily due to submarine landslides triggered by an earthquake and a conceptual Tsunami Early Warning System in the Marmara region strongly coupled with the strong ground motion and existing Earthquake Early Warning System was developed. The existing Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response system in the Marmara Region was improved and the installation and test of a pilot seismic landslide monitoring system was taken place in the Avcilar-Beylikdüzü Peninsula, a large landslide prone area located in westward part of Istanbul and facing the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). An integrated approach based on multi-parameter seafloor observatories was implemented to continuously monitor the micro-seismicity along with the fluid expulsion activity within the submerged fault zone. During MARSite, strong integration and links had been established with major European initiatives focused on the collection of multidisciplinary data, their dissemination, interpretation and fusion to produce consistent theoretical and practical models, the implementation of good practices so as to provide the necessary information to end users, and the updating of seismic hazard and risk evaluations in the Marmara region. In this perspective, to continue the understanding of and improvement in the preparedness for geological disasters, the existing monitoring infrastructure of Marsite requires the continuation of a strong a European initiative. This presentation will provide a venue for information exchange towards the establishment of such an initiative.

Main natural hazards and vulnerability studies for some historical constructions and urban sectors of Valparaiso City (Chile)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanelli, F.

2009-04-01

The Project "MAR VASTO" ("Risk Management in Valparaíso/Manejo de Riesgos en Valparaíso, Servicios Técnicos", 2007) started in March 2007, with coordination of ENEA (Italian Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Environment), participation of several partners (Italy: University of Ferrara, Faculties of Architecture and Engineering; University of Padua, Faculty of Engineering; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics of Trieste; Chile: Valparaíso Technical University Federico Santa Maria, Civil Works Department; Santiago University of Chile, Division Structures Constructions Geotechnics), and support of local stakeholders. Being Valparaíso included since 2003 in the UNESCO Word Heritage List of protected sites, the project main goals are the following: to collect, analyze and elaborate the existing information, with a satisfying evaluation of main hazards; to develop a GIS digital archive, well organized, user-friendly and easy to be implemented in the future, providing maps and scenarios of specific and multiple risk; to provide a vulnerability analysis for three historical churches (San Francisco del Baron, Las Hermanitas de la Providencia, La Matríz, made by various materials - masonry, concrete, wood and adobe - and located in different city sites) and for a building stock in the Cerro Cordillera (partially inside the UNESCO area), analyzing more than 200 constructions; to suggest guidelines for future urban planning and strengthening interventions. In the framework of the MAR VASTO Project, the most important hazards have been investigated carried out. With regard to seismic hazard, "state-of-the-art" information has been provided by Chilean partners and stakeholders, using materials of several studies and stored in original earthquake reports, local newspapers and magazines. The activities performed by the Italian team regarded the definition, for the city of Valparaiso, of earthquake scenarios and maps based on the neo-deterministic approach. With regard to tsunami, the information has been provided by SHOA (Servicio Hidrografico y Oceanografico de la Armada de Chile). Tsunami scenarios and inundation maps (for both the 1906 and 1985 earthquakes) have been evaluated by the Italian team, taking into account also worse scenarios (namely the 1730 seismic event). Landslide hazard (identifying main flow areas and pointing out most affected zones, with a deeper investigation in the Cerro Cordillera, pilot area for the MAR VASTO Project) and fire hazard have been also evaluated. Finally, a GIS database has been developed, to store the hazard maps produced in the project. In addition, the GIS database has been verified by using the data obtained by a DGPS survey, performed during the in situ work in Valparaiso. In the framework of the MAR VASTO Project a building stock located in the Cerro Cordillera, partially inside the UNESCO area, has been investigated. The work done in the above said Cerro Cordillera sector by the Italian team can be considered a pilot experience which would be enlarged to all the Valparaiso City area in the framework of the town planning, actually in progress.

Physical and institutional vulnerability assessment method applied in Alpine communities. Preliminary Results of the SAMCO-ANR Project in the Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Madelin, Malika; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

2015-04-01

The Guil catchment is particularly prone to torrential and gravitational hazards such as floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches due to several predisposing factors (bedrock supplying abundant debris, strong hillslope-channel connectivity) in a context of summer Mediterranean rainstorms as triggers. These hazards severely impact the local population (fatalities, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, loss of agricultural land, road closures). Since the second half of the 20th century, the progressive decline of agro-pastoralism and the development of tourism activities led to a concentration of human stakes on alluvial cones and valley bottom, therefore an increase of vulnerability for mountainous communities. Following the 1957 and 2000 catastrophic floods and the 1948 and 2008 avalanche episodes, some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, in front of urban expansion (land pressures and political pressures) and obsolescence of the existing protective measures, it is essential to reassess the vulnerability of the stakes exposed to hazards. Vulnerability analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of risk assessment. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment, our goal is to estimate specific form of vulnerability for communities living in the Upper Guil catchment in order to provide useful documentation for a better management of the valley bottom and the implementation of adequate mitigation measures. Here we present preliminary results on three municipalities of the upper Guil catchment: Aiguilles, Abriès, and Ristolas. We propose an empirical semi-quantitative indicator of potential hazards consequences on element at risk (based on GIS) with an application to different (local and regional scale) scales. This indicator, called Potential Damage Index, enable us to describe, quantify, and visualize direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, lifelines and land cover) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by torrential and gravitational hazards by combining weighted indicators (age, state, land use, number of occupied floors, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk (land cover, buildings, and lifelines) to obtain different maps of total consequences. Besides, this method allows introducing temporality by modifying the weight and the combination of variables. For example, we can operate the distinction between day and night or between the off-season and the touristic season. Another benefit of this method is to permit the visualization of the vulnerability evolution producing diachronic maps. All these maps, combined with adequate hazards map, will contribute to a better assessment of vulnerability in the Queyras and must help the development of better land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities. This study will be completed by an analysis of social and institutional vulnerability realized on the basis of interview with local councillors and risk perception survey led with the local populations and the tourists.

Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

2007-05-01

During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the authorities after proper review by peers. This project has been running for two years and hazards maps for the region of Parícutin and Jorullo volcanoes have been carried out. The students have been applying their knowledge and got results in a very short time and at the same time socially very important.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Perkins, David M.

1976-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic estimate of the maximum ground acceleration to be expected from earthquakes occurring in the contiguous United States. It is based primarily upon the historic seismic record which ranges from very incomplete before 1930 to moderately complete after 1960. Geologic data, primarily distribution of faults, have been employed only to a minor extent, because most such data have not been interpreted yet with earthquake hazard evaluation in mind.The map provides a preliminary estimate of the relative hazard in various parts of the country. The report provides a method for evaluating the relative importance of the many parameters and assumptions in hazard analysis. The map and methods of evaluation described reflect the current state of understanding and are intended to be useful for engineering purposes in reducing the effects of earthquakes on buildings and other structures.Studies are underway on improved methods for evaluating the relativ( earthquake hazard of different regions. Comments on this paper are invited to help guide future research and revisions of the accompanying map.The earthquake hazard in the United States has been estimated in a variety of ways since the initial effort by Ulrich (see Roberts and Ulrich, 1950). In general, the earlier maps provided an estimate of the severity of ground shaking or damage but the frequency of occurrence of the shaking or damage was not given. Ulrich's map showed the distribution of expected damage in terms of no damage (zone 0), minor damage (zone 1), moderate damage (zone 2), and major damage (zone 3). The zones were not defined further and the frequency of occurrence of damage was not suggested. Richter (1959) and Algermissen (1969) estimated the ground motion in terms of maximum Modified Mercalli intensity. Richter used the terms "occasional" and "frequent" to characterize intensity IX shaking and Algermissen included recurrence curves for various parts of the country in the paper accompanying his map.The first probabilistic hazard maps covering portions of the United States were by Milne and Davenport (1969a). Recently, Wiggins, Hirshberg and Bronowicki (1974) prepared a probabilistic map of maximum particle velocity and Modified Mercalli intensity for the entire United States. The maps are based on an analysis of the historical seismicity. In general, geological data were not incorporated into the development of the maps.

Hazards mapping using local and scientific knowledge. A case in rural Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solis, B.; Bocco, G.

2016-12-01

Natural hazards in rural areas in developing countries usually affect poor peasants and their infrastructure. This poses a problem of social vulnerability that coupled to the risk may cause severe hazards. Research oriented to prevention and adaptation is crucial. Other studies have proved that local knowledge and peasant's perception on hazards is a valuable tool to tackle prevention and mitigation. In the valley of Huahua river, at the Pacific coast of Mexico, landslides have directly affected rural roads hampering communication between villages. In addition some of their deposits have changed the morphology of river channels, resulting in flooding and avalanches threatening rural life and assets. At least 21 landslides are still active in the area. In this research the leading questions are: how do people perceive landslides hazard? What is the knowledge possessed by villagers facing such hazards? Could scientific and local knowledge be coupled in a hybrid format to formulate an adequate hazards map? The investigation used ethnographic techniques (participant observation, semi-structured and structured interviews, and participatory mapping) and multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data. We will present the preliminary results, based principally on interview data and a first hazard zoning of the lower valley of the Huahua River. Our results suggest that the approach can be used in this and similar areas in developing countries.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

How do Japanese escape from TSUNAMI? - Disaster Prevention Education through using Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaue, Hiroaki

2013-04-01

After the disaster of the earthquake and tsunami in Tohoku, Japan in 2011, it is necessary to teach more "Disaster Prevention" in school. The government guideline for education of high school geography students emphasizes improving students' awareness of disaster prevention through acquiring geographical skills, for example reading hazard and thematic maps. The working group of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) says that the purpose of Disaster Prevention Education is to develop the following competencies: 1. To acquire knowledge about disasters in the local area and the science of disaster prevention. 2. To teach individuals to protect themselves from natural hazards. 3. To safely support other people in the local area. 4. To build a safe society during rebuilding from the disasters. "Disaster Prevention Education" is part of the "Education for Sustainable Development" (ESD) curriculum. That is, teaching disaster prevention can contribute to developing abilities for sustainable development and building a sustainable society. I have tried to develop a high school geography class about "tsunami". The aim of this class is to develop the students' competencies to acquire the knowledge about tsunami and protect themselves from it through reading a hazard map. I especially think that in geography class, students can protect themselves from disasters through learning the risks of disasters and how to escape when disasters occur. In the first part of class, I have taught the mechanism of tsunami formation and where tsunamis occur in Japan. In the second part of class, I have shown students pictures that I had taken in Tohoku, for instance Ishinomaki-City, Minamisanriku-Town, Kesen'numa-City, and taught how to read hazard maps that show where safe and dangerous places are when natural hazards occur. I think that students can understand the features of the local area and how to escape from disasters that may occur in local area by learning a hazard map. I have used a comment paper to evaluate the following competencies: 1. Students can understand the mechanism of tsunami formation and its potential for damage. 2. Students can read the hazard map. 3. Students can explain or describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In conclusion, many students could read hazard maps and describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In other words, through developing mapping skills, geography students can contribute to developing abilities for Disaster Prevention Education and building a sustainable society. Disaster Prevention Education has many requirements. For example, the MEXT working group says that Disaster Prevention Education teaching should not only deliver knowledge but also develop students' problem solving competency, and that it is important to incorporate this education within each subject area in the school.

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Information about public networks is also recorded in order to give an overall idea of the built environment condition of the island. The vulnerability assessment of the technical systems describes the potential damages that could stress systems like electricity supply, water distribution, communication networks or transport systems. These damages can also be described as function disruption of the system. The important aspect is not only the physical capacity of a system to resist, but also its capacity to continue functioning. The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. Six different hazard scenarios have been identified based on a detailed stratigraphic work. The urbanization on Vulcano took place in the 1980s with no real planning and its population mostly subsists on tourism. Our preliminary results show that Vulcano is not characterized by a great variability of architectural typologies and construction materials. Three main types of buildings are present (masonry with concrete frame, masonry with manufactured stone units, masonry with hollow clay bricks) and no statistically significant trends were found between physical and morphological characteristics. The recent signs of volcanic unrest combined with a complex vulnerability of the island due to an uncontrolled urban development and a significant seasonal variation of the exposed population in summer months result in a high volcanic risk. As a result, Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model and to study the transition between micro (building) and macro (urban environment) scale of analysis, which is still an unexplored field in the study of volcanic risk. Different levels of vulnerability need to be analyzed in order to increase the level of preparedness, plan a potential evacuation, manage a potential volcanic crisis and assess the best mitigation measures to put in place and reduce the volcanic risk.

A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Case study: Mapping tsunami hazards associated with debris flow into a reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Watts, P.; Waythomas, C.F.

2006-01-01

Debris-flow generated impulse waves (tsunamis) pose hazards in lakes, especially those used for hydropower or recreation. We describe a method for assessing tsunami-related hazards for the case in which inundation by coherent water waves, rather than chaotic splashing, is of primary concern. The method involves an experimentally based initial condition (tsunami source) and a Boussinesq model for tsunami propagation and inundation. Model results are used to create hazard maps that offer guidance for emergency planners and responders. An example application explores tsunami hazards associated with potential debris flows entering Baker Lake, a reservoir on the flanks of the Mount Baker volcano in the northwestern United States. ?? 2006 ASCE.

Introduction: Hazard mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Lee, Saro; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr M

2014-01-01

Twenty papers were accepted into the session on landslide hazard mapping for oral presentation. The papers presented susceptibility and hazard analysis based on approaches ranging from field-based assessments to statistically based models to assessments that combined hydromechanical and probabilistic components. Many of the studies have taken advantage of increasing availability of remotely sensed data and nearly all relied on Geographic Information Systems to organize and analyze spatial data. The studies used a range of methods for assessing performance and validating hazard and susceptibility models. A few of the studies presented in this session also included some element of landslide risk assessment. This collection of papers clearly demonstrates that a wide range of approaches can lead to useful assessments of landslide susceptibility and hazard.

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination...

Rockfall hazard mapping along a mountainous road in Switzerland using a GIS-based parameter rating approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baillifard, F.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Sartori, M.

A posteriori studies of rock slope instabilities generally show that rockfalls do not occur at random locations: the failure zone can be classified as sensitive from geomorphological evidence. Zones susceptible to failure can there-fore be detected. Effects resulting from degrading and triggering factors, such as groundwater circulation and freeze and thaw cycles, must then be assessed in order to evaluate the probability of failure. A simple method to detect rock slope instabilities was tested in a study involving a 2000 m3 rockfall that obstructed a mountainous road near Sion (Switzerland) on 9 January 2001. In order to locate areas from which a rock-fall might originate, areas were assessed with respect to the presence or absence of five criteria: (1) a fault, (2) a scree slope within a short distance, (3) a rocky cliff, (4) a steep slope, and (5) a road. These criteria were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) using existing topo-graphic, geomorphological, and geological vector and raster digital data. The proposed model yields a rating from 0 to 5, and gives a relative hazard map. Areas yielding a high relative hazard have to meet two additional criteria if they are to be considered as locations from which a rockfall might originate: (1) the local structural pattern has to be unfavourable, and (2) the morphology has to be susceptible to the effects of degrading and triggering factors. The rockfall of 9 January 2001, has a score of 5. Applied to the entire length of the road (4 km), the present method reveals two additional areas with a high relative hazard, and allows the detection of the main instabilities of the site.

Publications - MP 133 v. 2 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Maps; Alaska, State of; Aleutian Arc; Aleutian Islands; Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards

Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Publications Search Statewide Maps New Releases Sales Interactive Maps Databases Sections Geologic hazards to buildings, roads, bridges, and other installations and structures (AS 41.08.020). Headlines New release! Active faults and seismic hazards in Alaska - MP 160 New release! The Alaska Volcano Observatory

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

Urban topography for flood modeling by fusion of OpenStreetMap, SRTM and local knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Donchyts, Gennadii; Eilander, Dirk; Chen, Jorik; Leskens, Anne; Coughlan, Erin; Mawanda, Shaban; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Luo, Tianyi; Iceland, Charles

2016-04-01

Topography data is essential for understanding and modeling of urban flood hazard. Within urban areas, much of the topography is defined by highly localized man-made features such as roads, channels, ditches, culverts and buildings. This results in the requirement that urban flood models require high resolution topography, and water conveying connections within the topography are considered. In recent years, more and more topography information is collected through LIDAR surveys however there are still many cities in the world where high resolution topography data is not available. Furthermore, information on connectivity is required for flood modelling, even when LIDAR data are used. In this contribution, we demonstrate how high resolution terrain data can be synthesized using a fusion between features in OpenStreetMap (OSM) data (including roads, culverts, channels and buildings) and existing low resolution and noisy SRTM elevation data using the Google Earth Engine platform. Our method uses typical existing OSM properties to estimate heights and topology associated with the features, and uses these to correct noise and burn features on top of the existing low resolution SRTM elevation data. The method has been setup in the Google Earth Engine platform so that local stakeholders and mapping teams can on-the-fly propose, include and visualize the effect of additional features and properties of features, which are deemed important for topography and water conveyance. These features can be included in a workshop environment. We pilot our tool over Dar Es Salaam.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2007-11-01

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, C.; Haukaas, Terje

2015-01-01

ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

Flood hazards studies in the Mississippi River basin using remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.; Anderson, A. T.

1974-01-01

The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicated that ERTS-1 is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood mamagement. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.

Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storie, Judith M.

2018-05-01

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015 Sabah earthquake offers a case in point.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against disasters.

Active, capable, and potentially active faults - a paleoseismic perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, M.N.

2000-01-01

Maps of faults (geologically defined source zones) may portray seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness depending on which types of faults are shown. Three fault terms - active, capable, and potential - are used in a variety of ways for different reasons or applications. Nevertheless, to be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence in an area is 20,000-50,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000-100,000 years old (two to five typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in more active areas such as plate boundaries, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II-2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World our maps and database will show five age categories and four slip rate categories that allow one to select differing time spans and activity rates for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be defined as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments.

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

2016-02-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

Develop Probabilistic Tsunami Design Maps for ASCE 7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thio, H. K.; Chock, G.; Titov, V. V.

2014-12-01

A national standard for engineering design for tsunami effects has not existed before and this significant risk is mostly ignored in engineering design. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee is completing a chapter for the 2016 edition of ASCE/SEI 7 Standard. Chapter 6, Tsunami Loads and Effects, would become the first national tsunami design provisions. These provisions will apply to essential facilities and critical infrastructure. This standard for tsunami loads and effects will apply to designs as part of the tsunami preparedness. The provisions will have significance as the post-tsunami recovery tool, to plan and evaluate for reconstruction. Maps of 2,500-year probabilistic tsunami inundation for Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii need to be developed for use with the ASCE design provisions. These new tsunami design zone maps will define the coastal zones where structures of greater importance would be designed for tsunami resistance and community resilience. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed 75 tsunami inundation models as part of the operational tsunami model forecast capability for the U.S. coastline. NCTR, UW, and URS are collaborating with ASCE to develop the 2,500-year tsunami design maps for the Pacific states using these tsunami models. This ensures the probabilistic criteria are established in ASCE's tsunami design maps. URS established a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment approach consisting of a large amount of tsunami scenarios that include both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability (Thio et al., 2010). Their study provides 2,500-year offshore tsunami heights at the 100-m water depth, along with the disaggregated earthquake sources. NOAA's tsunami models are used to identify a group of sources that produce these 2,500-year tsunami heights. The tsunami inundation limits and runup heights derived from these sources establish the tsunami design map for the study site. ASCE's Energy Grad Line Analysis then uses these modeling constraints to derive hydrodynamic forces for structures within the tsunami design zone. The probabilistic tsunami design maps will be validated by comparison to state inundation maps under the coordination of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Database for the geologic map of upper Eocene to Holocene volcanic and related rocks in the Cascade Range, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, Andrew D.; Ramsey, David W.; Smith, James G.

2014-01-01

This digital database contains information used to produce the geologic map published as Sheet 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map I-2005. (Sheet 2 of Map I-2005 shows sources of geologic data used in the compilation and is available separately). Sheet 1 of Map I-2005 shows the distribution and relations of volcanic and related rock units in the Cascade Range of Washington at a scale of 1:500,000. This digital release is produced from stable materials originally compiled at 1:250,000 scale that were used to publish Sheet 1. The database therefore contains more detailed geologic information than is portrayed on Sheet 1. This is most noticeable in the database as expanded polygons of surficial units and the presence of additional strands of concealed faults. No stable compilation materials exist for Sheet 1 at 1:500,000 scale. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map sheet, main report text, and accompanying mapping reference sheet from Map I-2005. For more information on volcanoes in the Cascade Range in Washington, Oregon, or California, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

Community Capacity in The Face Of Landslide Hazards in the Southern Of Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjahjono, Heri; Suripin; Kismartini

2018-02-01

The study was done at Semarang, Central Java. The aims of the study are: (a) to know the variation in the level of community capacity in dealing with landslide hazards in the southern of Semarang city; (B) to know the factors that affect the capacity of communities in facing the hazards of landslides. This research was conducted by the sample method with a sample of 198 people, taken by purposive sampling. Samples taken are people living in areas that have experienced landslide or in areas that are expected to be vulnerable to landslides. The variables used in this research are (1) regulatory and institutional capacity in the prevention of landslide disaster, (2) early warning system in community, (3) education of disaster skill training, (4) mitigation to reduce basic risk factor, and (5) Preparedness on all fronts. Data were collected with questioner and interviews. Data analysis was performed by percentage descriptions, and map overlay analysis using ArcGIS release 10.3 technology. The result of the research shows that there are 5 variations of society's capacity level in facing the landslide hazard in southern Semarang city, that is the very high capacity of society as much as 4,35 % of the people that researched, the high community capacity is 7,25 % of the people that researched, the medium community capacity is 30.43 %. of the people that researched, low community capacity as much as 36.23 % of the people that researched and very low community capacity as much as 21.74% of the people that researched. Based on the result of overlay map of landslide threat in southern Semarang City with map about variation of community capacity level in facing landslide hazard indicate that community capacity with very high criterion and high occupancy area of threat of landslide with high and medium criterion which have been experienced landslide. While the capacity of the community with the criteria of medium, low and very low occupies the threat of landslide areas with high, medium, low and very low criteria that have never experienced landslide. The existence of the experience of a landslide disaster is one of the factors that encourage the community to increase the community capacity in facing the landslide.

Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2007-01-01

Finally, ASTERs 60 km swath width and 8% duty cycle presents a challenge for mapping lahar inundation hazards at E–W oriented stream valleys in low-latitude areas with persistent cloud cover. However, its continued operations enhances its utility as a means for updating the continuous but one-time coverage of SRTM, and for filling voids in the SRTM dataset such as those that occur along steep-sided valleys prone to hazards from future lahars.

ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

Natural Hazards within the West Indies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1992-01-01

Outlines the vulnerability of the West Indies to various natural hazards, especially hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Reviews the geologic and meteorologic causes and consequences of the hazards. Suggests methods of incorporating hazards information in geography classes. Includes maps and a hurricane tracking chart. (DK)

78 FR 60755 - Hazardous Materials: Enhanced Enforcement Procedures-Resumption of Transportation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-02

.... Summary of MAP-21 and Final Rule V. Summary Review of Amendments VI. Regulatory Analyses and Notices A.... Executive Summary On July 6, 2012, the President signed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21, which included the Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety Improvement Act of...

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

A stereo-vision hazard-detection algorithm to increase planetary lander autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woicke, Svenja; Mooij, Erwin

2016-05-01

For future landings on any celestial body, increasing the lander autonomy as well as decreasing risk are primary objectives. Both risk reduction and an increase in autonomy can be achieved by including hazard detection and avoidance in the guidance, navigation, and control loop. One of the main challenges in hazard detection and avoidance is the reconstruction of accurate elevation models, as well as slope and roughness maps. Multiple methods for acquiring the inputs for hazard maps are available. The main distinction can be made between active and passive methods. Passive methods (cameras) have budgetary advantages compared to active sensors (radar, light detection and ranging). However, it is necessary to proof that these methods deliver sufficiently good maps. Therefore, this paper discusses hazard detection using stereo vision. To facilitate a successful landing not more than 1% wrong detections (hazards that are not identified) are allowed. Based on a sensitivity analysis it was found that using a stereo set-up at a baseline of ≤ 2 m is feasible at altitudes of ≤ 200 m defining false positives of less than 1%. It was thus shown that stereo-based hazard detection is an effective means to decrease the landing risk and increase the lander autonomy. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm is a promising candidate for future landers.

Incorporating Community Knowledge to Lahar Hazard Maps: Canton Buenos Aires Case Study, at Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, J. V.; Martinez-Hackert, B.; Polio, C.; Gutierrez, E.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano is an active composite volcano located in the Apaneca Volcanic Field located in western part of El Salvador, Central America. The volcano is surrounded by rural communities in its proximal areas and the second (Santa Ana, 13 km) and fourth (Sonsosante, 15 km) largest cities of the country. On October 1st, 2005, the volcano erupted after months of increased activity. Following the eruption, volcanic mitigation projects were conducted in the region, but the communities had little or no input on them. This project consisted in the creation of lahar volcanic hazard map for the Canton Buanos Aires on the northern part of the volcano by incorporating the community's knowledge from prior events to model parameters and results. The work with the community consisted in several meetings where the community members recounted past events. They were asked to map the outcomes of those events using either a topographic map of the area, a Google Earth image, or a blank paper poster size. These maps have been used to identify hazard and vulnerable areas, and for model validation. These maps were presented to the communities and they accepted their results and the maps.

Map showing lava-flow hazard zones, Island of Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Thomas L.; Chun, Jon Y.F.; Exposo, Jean; Heliker, Christina; Hodge, Jon; Lockwood, John P.; Vogt, Susan M.

1992-01-01

This map shows lava-flow hazard zones for the five volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii. Volcano boundaries are shown as heavy, dark bands, reflecting the overlapping of lava flows from adjacent volcanoes along their common boundary. Hazard-zone boundaries are drawn as double lines because of the geologic uncertainty in their placement. Most boundaries are gradational, and the change In the degree of hazard can be found over a distance of a mile or more. The general principles used to place hazard-zone boundaries are discussed by Mullineaux and others (1987) and Heliker (1990). The differences between the boundaries presented here and in Heliker (1990) reflect new data used in the compilation of a geologic map for the Island of Hawaii (E.W. Wolfe and Jean Morris, unpub. data, 1989). The primary source of information for volcano boundaries and generalized ages of lava flows for all five volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii is the geologic map of Hawaii (E.W. Wolfe and Jean Morris, unpub. data, 1989). More detailed information is available for the three active volcanoes. For Hualalai, see Moore and others (1987) and Moore and Clague (1991); for Mauna Loa, see Lockwood and Lipman (1987); and for Kilauea, see Holcomb (1987) and Moore and Trusdell (1991).

Genetic k-Means Clustering Approach for Mapping Human Vulnerability to Chemical Hazards in the Industrialized City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Shi, Weifang; Zeng, Weihua

2013-01-01

Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster. PMID:23787337

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

2015-04-01

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id; Cipta, Athanasius; Australian National University, Canberra

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and backmore » thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.« less

Landslide and flood hazard assessment in urban areas of Levoča region (Eastern Slovakia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magulova, Barbora; Caporali, Enrica; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

The case study presents the use of statistical methods and analysis tools, for hazard assessment of "urbanization units", implemented in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. As a case study, the Levoča region (Slovakia) is selected. The region, with a total area of about 351 km2, is widely affected by landslides and floods. The problem, for small urbanization areas, is nowadays particularly significant from the socio-economic point of view. It is considered, presently, also an increasing problem, mainly because of climate change and more frequent extreme rainfall events. The geo-hazards are evaluated using a multivariate analysis. The landslide hazard assessment is based on the comparison and subsequent statistical elaboration of territorial dependence among different input factors influencing the instability of the slopes. Particularly, five factors influencing slope stability are evaluated, i.e. lithology, slope aspect, slope angle, hypsographic level and present land use. As a result a new landslide susceptibility map is compiled and different zones of stable, dormant and non-stable areas are defined. For flood hazard map a detailed digital elevation model is created. A compose index of flood hazard is derived from topography, land cover and pedology related data. To estimate flood discharge, time series of stream flow and precipitation measurements are used. The assessment results are prognostic maps of landslide hazard and flood hazard, which presents the optimal base for urbanization planning.

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are highly uncertain, particularly the casualty numbers, which must be regarded as estimates rather than firm numbers for many earthquakes. Consequently, we encourage contributions from the seismology and earthquake engineering communities to further improve this resource via the Wikipedia page and personal communications, for the benefit of the whole community.

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires.Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind.First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

Publications - IC 44 ed. 2004 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Map; Aeromagnetic Survey; Airborne Geophysical Survey; Alaska, State of; Bibliography; Coastal and

Optimizing Wind Power Generation while Minimizing Wildlife Impacts in an Urban Area

PubMed Central

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L.; Curtis, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown. PMID:23409117

Optimizing wind power generation while minimizing wildlife impacts in an urban area.

PubMed

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L; Curtis, Peter S

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown.

Landing Hazard Avoidance Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernathy, Michael Franklin (Inventor); Hirsh, Robert L. (Inventor)

2016-01-01

Landing hazard avoidance displays can provide rapidly understood visual indications of where it is safe to land a vehicle and where it is unsafe to land a vehicle. Color coded maps can indicate zones in two dimensions relative to the vehicles position where it is safe to land. The map can be simply green (safe) and red (unsafe) areas with an indication of scale or can be a color coding of another map such as a surface map. The color coding can be determined in real time based on topological measurements and safety criteria to thereby adapt to dynamic, unknown, or partially known environments.

Volcano collapse promoted by hydrothermal alteration and edifice shape, Mount Rainier, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reid, M.E.; Sisson, T.W.; Brien, D.L.

2001-01-01

Catastrophic collapses of steep volcano flanks threaten many populated regions, and understanding factors that promote collapse could save lives and property. Large collapses of hydrothermally altered parts of Mount Rainier have generated far-traveled debris flows; future flows would threaten densely populated parts of the Puget Sound region. We evaluate edifice collapse hazards at Mount Rainier using a new three-dimensional slope stability method incorporating detailed geologic mapping and subsurface geophysical imaging to determine distributions of strong (fresh) and weak (altered) rock. Quantitative three-dimensional slope stability calculations reveal that sizeable flank collapse (>0.1 km3) is promoted by voluminous, weak, hydrothermally altered rock situated high on steep slopes. These conditions exist only on Mount Rainier's upper west slope, consistent with the Holocene debris-flow history. Widespread alteration on lower flanks or concealed in regions of gentle slope high on the edifice does not greatly facilitate collapse. Our quantitative stability assessment method can also provide useful hazard predictions using reconnaissance geologic information and is a potentially rapid and inexpensive new tool for aiding volcano hazard assessments.

Development of District-Based Mineral-Hazards Maps for Highways in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Fonseca, M. C.

2011-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) currently is developing a series of unpublished maps for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) that shows potential for mineral hazards within each of the twelve highway districts administered by that agency. Where present along or near highway corridors, such hazards may pose problems for human health and safety or the environment. Prepared at a scale of 1:250,000, the maps are designed as initial screening tools for Caltrans staff to use to improve planning of activities that involve new construction projects, routine maintenance of highways, and emergency removal of debris deposited on roads by natural processes. Although the basic presentation of each type of thematic map in the series is the same, some customization and focus are allowed for each district because each has unique issues concerning potential for mineral hazards. The maps display many natural and man-made features that may be potential sources of mineral hazards within each district. Features compiled and evaluated under our definition of "mineral hazards" are: 1) naturally-occurring asbestos (NOA); 2) natural occurrences of various regulated metals (Ag, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Tl, V, Zn) and metalloids (As, Sb, Se) as well as other pertinent metals, such as Mn and U; 3) faults, which can be sites of increased potential for certain types of mineralization, such as NOA; 4) mines and prospects, which can be sources of anomalous concentrations of metals as well as ore-processing chemicals; 5) natural petroleum features, such as oil and natural-gas seeps; 6) natural geothermal features, such as thermal springs and fumaroles; and 7) oil, natural-gas, and geothermal wells. Because of their greater potential as sources of mineral hazards, localities designated on the maps as "areas of potential mineralogical concern" are of particular interest to Caltrans. Examples include significant mining districts, such as New Almaden (Hg) near San Jose, and bedrock units such as serpentinite (NOA, Cr, Ni) and the Monterey Formation (Cd) and similar organic-carbon-rich and phosphate-rich Cenozoic marine sedimentary rocks (Cd, Se), all of which are common in the southern Coast Ranges. Some areas, present mainly in the Mojave Desert and east of the Sierra Nevada, comprise dry lake beds that can be sources of wind-blown dust, which may contain mineral hazards (e.g., As). Watershed boundaries and streams, superimposed on shaded topographic relief, are also shown on the maps to help Caltrans staff determine if drainages that intersect highway corridors may contain deleterious materials eroded and transported from upstream geologic features or mining areas. Besides the 1:250,000-scale maps, which are prepared as both paper copies and .pdf files, individual digital thematic layers of the features described above are prepared for use in GIS software and in-house image-viewers (CT Earth) employed by Caltrans. These layers provide additional information not displayed on the maps (e.g., directions of stream flow; characteristics of individual mines), which allows more-sophisticated analysis for possible mineral hazards.

Airborne EM survey in volcanoes : Application to a volcanic hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogi, T.

2010-12-01

Airborne electromagnetics (AEM) is a useful tool for investigating subsurface structures of volcanoes because it can survey large areas involving inaccessible areas. Disadvantages include lower accuracy and limited depth of investigation. AEM has been widely used in mineral exploration in frontier areas, and have been applying to engineering and environmental fields, particularly in studies involving active volcanoes. AEM systems typically comprise a transmitter and a receiver on an aircraft or in a towed bird, and although effective for surveying large areas, their penetration depth is limited because the distance between the transmitter and receiver is small and higher-frequency signals are used. To explore deeper structures using AEM, a semi-airborne system called GRounded Electrical source Airborne Transient ElectroMagnetics (GREATEM) has been developed. The system uses a grounded-electrical-dipole as the transmitter and generates horizontal electric fields. The GREATEM technology, first proposed by Mogi et al. (1998), has recently been improved and used in practical surveys (Mogi et al., 2009). The GREATEM survey system was developed to increase the depth of investigation possible using AEM. The method was tested in some volcanoes at 2004-2005. Here I will talk about some results of typical AEM surveys and GREATEM surveys in some volcanoes in Japan to mitigate hazards associated with volcano eruption. Geologic hazards caused by volcanic eruptions can be mitigated by a combination of prediction, preparedness and land-use control. Risk management depends on the identification of hazard zones and forecasting of eruptions. Hazard zoning involves the mapping of deposits which have formed during particular phases of volcanic activity and their extrapolation to identify the area which would be likely to suffer a similar hazard at some future time. The mapping is usually performed by surface geological surveys of volcanic deposits. Resistivity mapping by AEM is useful tool to identify each volcanic deposit on the surface and at shallower depth as well. This suggests that more efficient hazard map involving subsurface information can be supplied by AEM resistivity mapping.

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, B.; Askari, M.

2009-04-01

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran Behnoosh Neyestani , Mina Askari Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Seismic Hazard Assessment has been done for Shahdad city in this study , and four maps (Kerman-Bam-Nakhil Ab-Allah Abad) has been prepared to indicate the Deterministic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this area. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment has been preformed for a region in eastern Iran (Shahdad) based on the available geological, seismological and geophysical information and seismic zoning map of region has been constructed. For this assessment first Seimotectonic map of study region in a radius of 100km is prepared using geological maps, distribution of historical and instrumental earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions it is used as the base map for delineation of potential seismic sources. After that minimum distance, for every seismic sources until site (Shahdad) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined. In Shahdad ,according to results, peak ground acceleration using the Yoshimitsu Fukushima &Teiji Tanaka'1990 attenuation relationship is estimated to be 0.58 g, that is related to the movement of nayband fault with distance 2.4km of the site and maximum magnitude Ms=7.5.

Utilization of geoinformation tools for the development of forest fire hazard mapping system: example of Pekan fire, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Setiawan, Iwan; Mansor, Shattri; Shariff, Abdul Rashid Mohamed; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nuruddin, Ahmed

2009-12-01

A study in modeling fire hazard assessment will be essential in establishing an effective forest fire management system especially in controlling and preventing peat fire. In this paper, we have used geographic information system (GIS), in combination with other geoinformation technologies such as remote sensing and computer modeling, for all aspects of wild land fire management. Identifying areas that have a high probability of burning is an important component of fire management planning. The development of spatially explicit GIS models has greatly facilitated this process by allowing managers to map and analyze variables contributing to fire occurrence across large, unique geographic units. Using the model and its associated software engine, the fire hazard map was produced. Extensive avenue programming scripts were written to provide additional capabilities in the development of these interfaces to meet the full complement of operational software considering various users requirements. The system developed not only possesses user friendly step by step operations to deliver the fire vulnerability mapping but also allows authorized users to edit, add or modify parameters whenever necessary. Results from the model can support fire hazard mapping in the forest and enhance alert system function by simulating and visualizing forest fire and helps for contingency planning.

Intrinsic vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping for karst aquifers: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mimi, Ziad A.; Assi, Amjad

2009-01-01

SummaryGroundwater from karst aquifers is among the most important resources of drinking water supply of the worldwide population. The European COST action 620 proposed a comprehensive approach to karst groundwater protection, comprising methods of intrinsic and specific vulnerability mapping, hazard and risk mapping. This paper presents the first application of all components of this European approach to the groundwater underlying the Ramallah district, a karst hydrogeology system in Palestine. The vulnerability maps which were developed can assist in the implementation of groundwater management strategies to prevent degradation of groundwater quality. Large areas in the case study area can be classified as low or very low risk area corresponding to the pollution sources due to the absence of hazards and also due to low vulnerabilities. These areas could consequently be interesting for future development as they are preferable in view of ground water protection.

The development of flood map in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to undertake the necessary decisions, and the general public to be aware of the impending danger. However this paper will only discuss on the generations of Flood Hazard Maps and the use of Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map by using geospatial data.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as preliminary, it can also form the basis to further develop a scenario based inundation model database that can be used as an operational tool, for fast assessing tsunami prone zones during a real tsunami crisis.

Arguing for a multi-hazard mapping program in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batterson, Martin; Neil, Stapleton

2010-05-01

This poster describes efforts to implement a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program, and will explore the challenges associated with this process. Newfoundland and Labrador is on the eastern edge of North America, has a large land area (405,212 km2) and a small population (510,000; 2009 estimate). The province currently has no legislative framework to control development in hazardous areas, but recent landslides in the communities of Daniel's Harbour and Trout River, both of which forced the relocation of residents, emphasize the need for action. There are two factors which confirm the need for a natural hazard mapping program: the documented history of natural disasters, and the future potential impacts of climate change. Despite being relatively far removed from the impacts of earthquake and volcanic activity, Newfoundland and Labrador has a long history of natural disasters. Rockfall, landslide, avalanche and flood events have killed at least 176 people over the past 225 years, many in their own homes. Some of the fatalities resulted from the adjacency of homes to places of employment, and of communities and roads to steep slopes. Others were likely the result of chance, and were thus unavoidable. Still others were the result of poor planning, albeit unwitting. Increasingly however, aesthetics have replaced pragmatism as a selection criterion for housing developments, with residential construction being contemplated for many coastal areas. The issue is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, which while not a universal bane for the Province, will likely result in rising sea level and enhanced coastal erosion. Much of the Province's coastline is receding at up to 30 cm (and locally higher) per year. Sea level is anticipated to rise by 70cm to over 100 cm by 2099, based on IPCC predictions, plus the effects of enhanced ice sheet melting, plus (or minus) continued local isostatic adjustment. The history of geological disasters, coupled with pressures on development and the threat of rising sea levels, has prompted the initiation of a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program. Initial focus is on the north-east Avalon Peninsula, where the majority of the Province's residents are located and where most development is occurring. A regional land-use plan is being initiated for this area. While there are few, if any, standard protocols in literature for determining variables/data to be included in a hazard assessment, three important factors require consideration: the characteristics and detail of the study area, the availability of digital datasets, and the scale of data. For the north-east Avalon Peninsula hazard mapping will combine slope models generated from DEMs, bedrock/surficial geology mapping at 1:50,000 scale, Provincial flood risk mapping and municipal digital topographic data at 1:2500 scale, and historical research and field work, to produce a ‘traffic-light' designation of potentially hazardous areas. Data will be presented in an ArcGIS environment. Sea-level rise scenarios will also be incorporated into the mapping. Following the experience of flood risk mapping in the Province, which identified hazardous areas for development which nevertheless continued to experience urban expansion, subsequently ensuring the utilization of these maps in future land-use planning will likely require entrenchment in legislation.

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio-economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

Surficial Geologic Map of the Tanacross B-4 Quadrangle, East-Central Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carrara, Paul E.

2006-01-01

The Tanacross B-4 1:63,360-scale quadrangle, through which the Alaska Highway runs, is in east-central Alaska about 100 mi west of the Yukon border. The surficial geologic mapping in the quadrangle is in support of the 'Geologic Mapping in support of land, resources, and hazards issues in Alaska' Project of the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program. The Tanacross B-4 quadrangle contains parts of two physiographic provinces, the Yukon-Tanana Upland and the Northway-Tanana Lowland. The gently rolling hills of the Yukon-Tanana Upland, in the northern and eastern map area, rise to about 3,100 ft. The Northway-Tanana Lowland, in the western and southern map area, contains the westerly flowing Tanana River. Elevations along the floor of the lowland generally range between 1,540 and 1,700 ft. The dominant feature within the map is the Tok fan, which occupies about 20 percent of the map area. This large, nearly featureless fan contains a high percentage of volcanic clasts derived from outside the present-day drainage of the Tok River. The map provides interpretations of the Quaternary surficial deposits and associated geologic hazards in this area of the upper Tanana valley. Because the map area is dominated by various surficial deposits, the map depicts 13 different Quaternary surficial units consisting of man-made, alluvial, colluvial, organic, lacustrine, and eolian deposits. Deposits shown on this map are generally greater than 1 m thick. The map is accompanied by a text containing unit descriptions incorporating information pertaining to material type, location, associated hazards, resource use (if any), and thickness.

Volcanic Hazards Survey in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrams, Michael; Siebe, Claus; Macias, Jose Luis

1996-01-01

We have assembled a digital mosaic of 11 Landsat Thematic images to serve as a mapping base for reconnaissance activities within the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt. This will aid us in interpretation and in the evaluation of potential activity of all the volcanic centers there. One result is a volcanic hazards map of the area.

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Landslide Hazard Mapping in Rwanda Using Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piller, A.; Anderson, E.; Ballard, H.

2015-12-01

Landslides in the United States cause more than $1 billion in damages and 50 deaths per year (USGS 2014). Globally, figures are much more grave, yet monitoring, mapping and forecasting of these hazards are less than adequate. Seventy-five percent of the population of Rwanda earns a living from farming, mostly subsistence. Loss of farmland, housing, or life, to landslides is a very real hazard. Landslides in Rwanda have an impact at the economic, social, and environmental level. In a developing nation that faces challenges in tracking, cataloging, and predicting the numerous landslides that occur each year, satellite imagery and spatial analysis allow for remote study. We have focused on the development of a landslide inventory and a statistical methodology for assessing landslide hazards. Using logistic regression on approximately 30 test variables (i.e. slope, soil type, land cover, etc.) and a sample of over 200 landslides, we determine which variables are statistically most relevant to landslide occurrence in Rwanda. A preliminary predictive hazard map for Rwanda has been produced, using the variables selected from the logistic regression analysis.

A LiDAR based analysis of hydraulic hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazorzi, F.; De Luca, A.; Checchinato, A.; Segna, F.; Dalla Fontana, G.

2012-04-01

Mapping hydraulic hazard is a ticklish procedure as it involves technical and socio-economic aspects. On the one hand no dangerous areas should be excluded, on the other hand it is important not to exceed, beyond the necessary, with the surface assigned to some use limitations. The availability of a high resolution topographic survey allows nowadays to face this task with innovative procedures, both in the planning (mapping) and in the map validation phases. The latter is the object of the present work. It should be stressed that the described procedure is proposed purely as a preliminary analysis based on topography only, and therefore does not intend in any way to replace more sophisticated analysis methods requiring based on hydraulic modelling. The reference elevation model is a combination of the digital terrain model and the digital building model (DTM+DBM). The option of using the standard surface model (DSM) is not viable, as the DSM represents the vegetation canopy as a solid volume. This has the consequence of unrealistically considering the vegetation as a geometric obstacle to water flow. In some cases the topographic model construction requires the identification and digitization of the principal breaklines, such as river banks, ditches and similar natural or artificial structures. The geometrical and topological procedure for the validation of the hydraulic hazard maps is made of two steps. In the first step the whole area is subdivided into fluvial segments, with length chosen as a reasonable trade-off between the need to keep the hydrographical unit as complete as possible, and the need to separate sections of the river bed with significantly different morphology. Each of these segments is made of a single elongated polygon, whose shape can be quite complex, especially for meandering river sections, where the flow direction (i.e. the potential energy gradient associated to the talweg) is often inverted. In the second step the segments are analysed one by one. Therefore, each segment was split into many reaches, so that within any of them the slope of the piezometric line can be approximated to zero. As a consequence, the hydraulic profile (open channel flow) in every reach is assumed horizontal both downslope and on the cross-section. Each reach can be seen as a polygon, delimited laterally by the hazard mapping boundaries and longitudinally by two successive cross sections, usually orthogonal to the talweg line. Simulating the progressive increase of the river stage, with a horizontal piezometric line, allow the definition of the stage-area and stage-volume relationships. Such relationships are obtained exclusively by the geometric information as provided by the high resolution elevation model. The maximum flooded area resulting from the simulation is finally compared to the potentially floodable area described by the hazard maps, to give a flooding index for every reach. Index values lower than 100% show that the mapped hazard area exceeds the maximum floodable area. Very low index values identify spots where there is a significant incongruity between the hazard map and the topography, and where a specific verification is probably needed. The procedure was successfully used for the validation of many hazard maps across Italy.

An offline-online Web-GIS Android application for fast data acquisition of landslide hazard and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2017-04-01

Regional landslide assessments and mapping have been effectively pursued by research institutions, national and local governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and different stakeholders for some time, and a wide range of methodologies and technologies have consequently been proposed. Land-use mapping and hazard event inventories are mostly created by remote-sensing data, subject to difficulties, such as accessibility and terrain, which need to be overcome. Likewise, landslide data acquisition for the field navigation can magnify the accuracy of databases and analysis. Open-source Web and mobile GIS tools can be used for improved ground-truthing of critical areas to improve the analysis of hazard patterns and triggering factors. This paper reviews the implementation and selected results of a secure mobile-map application called ROOMA (Rapid Offline-Online Mapping Application) for the rapid data collection of landslide hazard and risk. This prototype assists the quick creation of landslide inventory maps (LIMs) by collecting information on the type, feature, volume, date, and patterns of landslides using open-source Web-GIS technologies such as Leaflet maps, Cordova, GeoServer, PostgreSQL as the real DBMS (database management system), and PostGIS as its plug-in for spatial database management. This application comprises Leaflet maps coupled with satellite images as a base layer, drawing tools, geolocation (using GPS and the Internet), photo mapping, and event clustering. All the features and information are recorded into a GeoJSON text file in an offline version (Android) and subsequently uploaded to the online mode (using all browsers) with the availability of Internet. Finally, the events can be accessed and edited after approval by an administrator and then be visualized by the general public.

Towards a GLOF hazard map for the city of Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; E Chisolm, Rachel; Gonzales, César; Cochachin, Alejo; Portocarrero, César

2017-04-01

Huaraz, with 120,000 inhabitants, is the largest city at the foot of the Cordillera Blanca Mountain Range, Peru, and is located at the confluence of the Quillcay River with the main Santa River. Three moraine dammed glacier lakes are located in the headwaters of the Quillcay catchment, which pose a potential threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) to Huaraz: Laguna Cuchillacocha (2.5 x 106 m3), Laguna Tullparaju (12 x 106 m3), and Laguna Palcacocha (17 x 106 m3). The latter burst out in 1941, causing one of the deadliest GLOFs known in history, with about 2000 casualties and destroying a third of the city of Huaraz. Currently, the presence of these lakes within potential runout distances of possibly very large ice or rock/ice-avalanches, combined with the large damage potential in the city of Huaraz, some 20 km downstream of the lakes and further potentially endangered infrastructures such as the city of Trujillo, large-scale irrigation projects and hydropower plants along the Santa River poses a high-risk situation, despite lake safety systems at all three lakes were constructed in the last century. At Laguna Palcacocha, temporary measures, such as syphoning and a permanent supervision by a team of observers are undertaken at Laguna Palcacocha. For the future, more permanent measures are planned, including non-structural measures, such as a sensor-based early warning system for the entire catchment. In this framework, a preliminary GLOF hazard map for the entire Quillcay catchment has been developed, based on physically-based numerical modeling. For each of the three lakes, three scenarios of different magnitudes and related probabilities were modeled. For each case, a series of models was used to simulate each part of the chain of interacting processes. The eventual GLOFs were simulated with FLO2D for Palcacocha and RAMMS for Tullparaju and Cuchillacocha. Small, medium and large scenarios were merged for all three lakes, in order to come up with a single hazard map for the entire catchment. Inundation heights were first translated into intensities, and then intensities were converted into hazard levels, according to the probability of the scenario, which resulted in the preliminary hazard map. This map is currently used for informing the population and for the planning of further mitigation actions. For the development of the final hazard map, more detailed simulations in the urban area of Huaraz are needed, combined with field mapping to adjust the map to local conditions and peculiarities. Related efforts are ongoing, in close collaboration with local institutions and authorities. Besides the scientific challenges for the development of such a hazard map, the institutional aspect for the official approval and legal validation is a major challenge that needs to be tackled.

Physical, social and institutional vulnerability assessment in small Alpine communities. Results of the SAMCO-ANR project in the Upper Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Frison-Bruno, Nikita; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Madelin, Malika; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

2016-04-01

The Upper Guil catchment is particularly prone to hydromorphological hazards such as torrential floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches. Following the catastrophic events of the last 60 years (1957, 1978, 2000, and 2008), some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, the development of urban settlement in endangered areas and the obsolescence of the existing protective measures revealed the necessity to reassess the vulnerability of the different stakes exposed to hazards and to take into account of these various component parts of the vulnerability (not only physical but also social, etc.). In addition, catastrophic events should be more frequent in the French Southern Alps, according to the last GIEC report. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment in a context of global change, we developed a systemic approach to assess three specific components of vulnerability - physical, social and institutional - for the six municipalities of the Upper Guil catchment (Ristolas, Abriès, Aiguilles, Château-Ville-Vieille, Molines-en-Queyras and St-Véran). Physical vulnerability, which represents total potential consequences of hazards on stakes, was estimated and mapped using a GIS model based on an empirical semi-quantitative indicator, the Potential Damage Index (PDI). This index allowed us to quantify and describe both direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, network and land cover) and indirect consequences (socio-economic impacts) induced by hazards, by combining weighted parameters (age, state, material, function, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk. At least 1890 buildings, 367 km² of land cover and 902 km of linear infrastructure were considered. To assess social and institutional vulnerability our approach was based on questionnaires (5% of the total population investigated), interviews and mental maps (80 collected) dealing with risk perception, risk memory, mitigation measures and degree of confidence in the actors of risk management. Our database provides via statistical analysis (i) a typology of endangered people (for instance, new and alone incomers without high education diploma), and (ii) a spatialization of the most vulnerable areas considering the inhabitant knowledge (hazard location, memory of past events, related destructions) and existing mitigation measures (engineering structure, evacuation plan). The most endangered areas are both located on alluvial fan and flood plain or in new housing estate (Garcine, Château Renard). These results contribute to a better assessment of the global vulnerability of the upper Queyras Region to hydrogeomorphic hazards. They could be used to help local authorities to improve and update their Emergency Action plan or their prevention plan.

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Assessing natural hazards in NE Colombia using Sentinel-1 interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olen, Stephanie; Bookhagen, Bodo

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project (Digitaler Entscheidertisch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information)) aims to assess the natural hazard threat to the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia as guidance for decision makers and disaster relief workers. As members of the DIGENTI project, we use Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry to detect hillslope movements, delineate settlements, and monitor damage to urban areas. Our study area, located in the remote Serranía del Perijá mountain range on the border of Colombia and Venezuela, is mountainous, highly vegetated, and experiences high and spatially variable rainfall (between 1 and 4 m a-1). The remote nature of the region, coupled with the favorable conditions for mass movements and other hillslope instabilities, make it an ideal location to employ remote sensing techniques to monitor potential natural hazards. In the highly vegetated Serranía del Perijá mountain range, traditional damage proxy mapping is complicated by vegetation-related coherence loss between SAR scenes. Cross-referencing existing maps, we define regions of consistently high coherence as settled or urban areas. Using the spatial extent of settled or urban areas as a mask, we establish an algorithm to use coherence loss only in these regions as a damage proxy in urban areas where the local population will be most affected. Outside of settlements, hillslope instabilities and movements are quantified and mapped using a two-prong approach: (1) Horizontal ground displacement is be calculated by dense amplitude cross-correlation using the topsOffsetApp in the InSAR Scientific Computing Environment (ISCE). This allows the location, direction, and magnitude of mass movements and hillslope instabilities to be identified and mapped; (2) We use a timeseries of interferograms to quantify vertical ground deformation (e.g., as caused by landsliding) during the Sentinel-1 time window. To do this we employ the small baseline subset (SBAS) technique to create a timeseries of potential landslides in our study area. This technique has the added advantage of overcoming poor coherence between individual InSAR scenes (e.g., caused by vegetation cover). The output of the SBAS analysis will be used to designate natural hazard "hot spots" that will enhance static estimates of factor of safety and landslide risk (e.g., based on digital elevation models). Both the timeseries of horizontal and vertical surface movements and their spatial extent are compared to regional rainfall and vegetation patterns to aid in future natural hazard assessment. Preliminary work is being done to apply these algorithms to other regions with markedly different climate and tectonic settings (NW Argentine Andes and the Arun Valley, Nepal).

Arrhythmic hazard map for a 3D whole-ventricles model under multiple ion channel block.

PubMed

Okada, Jun-Ichi; Yoshinaga, Takashi; Kurokawa, Junko; Washio, Takumi; Furukawa, Tetsushi; Sawada, Kohei; Sugiura, Seiryo; Hisada, Toshiaki

2018-05-10

To date, proposed in silico models for preclinical cardiac safety testing are limited in their predictability and usability. We previously reported a multi-scale heart simulation that accurately predicts arrhythmogenic risk for benchmark drugs. We extend this approach and report the first comprehensive hazard map of drug-induced arrhythmia based on the exhaustive in silico electrocardiogram (ECG) database of drug effects, developed using a petaflop computer. A total of 9075 electrocardiograms constitute the five-dimensional hazard map, with coordinates representing the extent of the block of each of the five ionic currents (rapid delayed rectifier potassium current (IKr), fast (INa) and late (INa,L) components of the sodium current, L-type calcium current (ICa,L) and slow delayed rectifier current (IKs)), involved in arrhythmogenesis. Results of the evaluation of arrhythmogenic risk based on this hazard map agreed well with the risk assessments reported in three references. ECG database also suggested that the interval between the J-point and the T-wave peak is a superior index of arrhythmogenicity compared to other ECG biomarkers including the QT interval. Because concentration-dependent effects on electrocardiograms of any drug can be traced on this map based on in vitro current assay data, its arrhythmogenic risk can be evaluated without performing costly and potentially risky human electrophysiological assays. Hence, the map serves as a novel tool for use in pharmaceutical research and development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

2018-01-01

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

Development Of New Databases For Tsunami Hazard Analysis In California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Bryant, W. A.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; McGuire, T.; Miller, K. M.; Real, C. R.; Synolakis, C.; Uslu, B.

2009-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) has partnered with other tsunami specialists to produce two statewide databases to facilitate the evaluation of tsunami hazard products for both emergency response and land-use planning and development. A robust, State-run tsunami deposit database is being developed that compliments and expands on existing databases from the National Geophysical Data Center (global) and the USGS (Cascadia). Whereas these existing databases focus on references or individual tsunami layers, the new State-maintained database concentrates on the location and contents of individual borings/trenches that sample tsunami deposits. These data provide an important observational benchmark for evaluating the results of tsunami inundation modeling. CGS is collaborating with and sharing the database entry form with other states to encourage its continued development beyond California’s coastline so that historic tsunami deposits can be evaluated on a regional basis. CGS is also developing an internet-based, tsunami source scenario database and forum where tsunami source experts and hydrodynamic modelers can discuss the validity of tsunami sources and their contribution to hazard assessments for California and other coastal areas bordering the Pacific Ocean. The database includes all distant and local tsunami sources relevant to California starting with the forty scenarios evaluated during the creation of the recently completed statewide series of tsunami inundation maps for emergency response planning. Factors germane to probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses (PTHA), such as event histories and recurrence intervals, are also addressed in the database and discussed in the forum. Discussions with other tsunami source experts will help CGS determine what additional scenarios should be considered in PTHA for assessing the feasibility of generating products of value to local land-use planning and development.

Volcan Baru: Eruptive History and Volcano-Hazards Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrod, David R.; Vallance, James W.; Tapia Espinosa, Arkin; McGeehin, John P.

2008-01-01

Volcan Baru is a potentially active volcano in western Panama, about 35 km east of the Costa Rican border. The volcano has had four eruptive episodes during the past 1,600 years, including its most recent eruption about 400?500 years ago. Several other eruptions occurred in the prior 10,000 years. Several seismic swarms in the 20th century and a recent swarm in 2006 serve as reminders of a restless tectonic terrane. Given this history, Volcan Baru likely will erupt again in the near or distant future, following some premonitory period of seismic activity and subtle ground deformation that may last for days or months. Future eruptions will likely be similar to past eruptions?explosive and dangerous to those living on the volcano?s flanks. Outlying towns and cities could endure several years of disruption in the wake of renewed volcanic activity. Described in this open-file report are reconnaissance mapping and stratigraphic studies, radiocarbon dating, lahar-inundation modeling, and hazard-analysis maps. Existing data have been compiled and included to make this report as comprehensive as possible. The report is prepared in coooperation with National Secretariat for Science, Technology and Innovation (SENACYT) of the Republic of Panama and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Detection of Slope Instabilities Along the National Road 7, Mendoza Province, Argentina, Using Multi-Temporal InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michoud, Clément; Derron, Marc-Henri; Baumann, Valérie; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Rune Lauknes, Tom

2013-04-01

About 2'230 vehicles per day pass through the National Road 7 that link Buenos Aires to Santiago de Chile, crossing Andes Cordillera. This extremely important corridor, being the most important land pass between Argentina and Chile, is exposed to numerous natural hazards, such as snow avalanches, rockfalls and debris flows and remains closed by natural hazards several days per year. This goal of this study is to perform a regional mapping of geohazard susceptibilities along the Road 7 corridor, as started by Baumann et al. (2005), using modern remote sensing and numerical approaches with field checking. The area of interest is located in the Mendoza Province, between the villages Potrerillos and Las Cuevas near the Chilean border. The diversity of soil and rock conditions, the active geomorphological processes associated to post-glacial decompression, seasonal freeze and thaw and severe storms along the road corridor, increase the risk to natural hazard. With the support of the European Space Agency (ESA Category-1 Project 7154), we have in this study processed a large number of ERS and Envisat ASAR scenes, covering the period from 1995 to 2000. We applied both the small-baseline (SB) and the persistent scatterer (PSI) multi-temporal interferometric SAR (InSAR) techniques. The study area contains sparse vegetation, and the SB InSAR method is therefore well suited to map the area containing mainly distributed scatterers. Furthermore, PSI algorithms are also used for comparison for selected landslides in the inventory. Both approaches show a relatively good coherence within mountain areas, which is a good point for the landslide detections along the road. Indeed, the authors identified several large slope instabilities even active scree deposits. This inventory is finally compared with field observations and with existing susceptibility maps regarding snow avalanches, debris-flows and rockfalls. The final objective of this project is to develop a risk strategy that will help local authorities to manage the risk along this highway and also to provide guidelines.

2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion.

Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

2017-11-01

This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

Risk-targeted maps for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

2018-03-01

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

Spatial Databases for CalVO Volcanoes: Current Status and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, D. W.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Volcano Observatory (CalVO) aims to advance scientific understanding of volcanic processes and to lessen harmful impacts of volcanic activity in California and Nevada. Within CalVO's area of responsibility, ten volcanoes or volcanic centers have been identified by a national volcanic threat assessment in support of developing the U.S. National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) as posing moderate, high, or very high threats to surrounding communities based on their recent eruptive histories and their proximity to vulnerable people, property, and infrastructure. To better understand the extent of potential hazards at these and other volcanoes and volcanic centers, the USGS Volcano Science Center (VSC) is continually compiling spatial databases of volcano information, including: geologic mapping, hazards assessment maps, locations of geochemical and geochronological samples, and the distribution of volcanic vents. This digital mapping effort has been ongoing for over 15 years and early databases are being converted to match recent datasets compiled with new data models designed for use in: 1) generating hazard zones, 2) evaluating risk to population and infrastructure, 3) numerical hazard modeling, and 4) display and query on the CalVO as well as other VSC and USGS websites. In these capacities, spatial databases of CalVO volcanoes and their derivative map products provide an integrated and readily accessible framework of VSC hazards science to colleagues, emergency managers, and the general public.

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of population in the daily cycle to re-assess exposure to earthquake hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, home to almost three million people. New high-resolution (50 m grids) daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using dasymetric mapping. The modeling approach uses areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous effort in high resolution population mapping of part of the study area. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Seismic Hazard Intensity map to: (1) quantify and compare human exposure to seismic intensity levels in the daytime and nighttime periods, and (2) derive nighttime and daytime overall Earthquake Risk maps. This novel approach yields previously unavailable spatio-temporal population distribution information for the study area, enabling refined and more accurate earthquake risk mapping and assessment. Additionally, such population exposure datasets can be combined with different hazard maps to improve spatio-temporal assessment and risk mapping for any type of hazard, natural or man-made. We believe this improved characterization of vulnerability and risk can benefit all phases of the disaster management process where human exposure has to be considered, namely in emergency planning, risk mitigation, preparedness, and response to an event.

77 FR 24505 - Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-24

...] Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings AGENCY... for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings. DATES: Comments must be received by... property from hazards and their effects. One such activity is the implementation of wind retrofit projects...

Publication: Evansville hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2012-01-01

The Evansville (Indiana) Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project was completed in February 2012. It was a collaborative effort among the U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners Purdue University; the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis; the state geologic surveys of Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana; the Southwest Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Corporation; and the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium state geologists.

Application of LANDSAT data to delimitation of avalanche hazards in Montane, Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H. (Principal Investigator); Summer, R.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. With rare exceptions, avalanche areas cannot be identified on LANDSAT imagery. Avalanche hazard mapping on a regional scale is best conducted using LANDSAT imagery in conjunction with complementary data sources. Level of detail of such maps will be limited by the amount and completeness of the complementary information used.

Fusiform-Rust-Hazard Maps for Loblolly and Slash Pines

Treesearch

Robert L. Anderson; Thomas C. McCartney; Noel D. Cost; Hugh Devine; Martin Botkin

1988-01-01

Rust-hazard saps made from Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data show that fusiform rust on slash pine is most common in north-central Florida, in southeastern Georgia, and in areas north of slash pine's natural range. On loblolly pine, the disease is most common in central and southeastern Georgia and in portions of South Carolina. These maps show the general...

A WebGIS service for managing, sharing and communicating information on mountain risks: a pilot study at the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigerio, Simone; Skupinski, Grzegorz; Kappes, Melanie; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Puissant, Anne

2010-05-01

Integrative analysis, assessment and management of mountain hazards and risks require (1) the intense cooperation among scientists, local practitioners and stakeholders, (2) the compilation of multi-source GIS database on both the sources of the dangers and their impacts, and (3) the communication of scientific results which is still a challenge. Within the European project Mountain Risks and the French-research initiative OMIV (Multi-disciplinary Observatory on Slope Instabilities; http://eost.u-strasbg.fr/omiv), several approaches are under development aiming at a coherent communication of scientific results to the population in order to inform about hazards and risks and support practical risk management measures. A simple and user-friendly approach with a visual-web-based interface is proposed, able (1) to incorporate geographical information on past events and on controlling factors, (2) to include administrative boundaries and official risk regulation maps, and(3) to integrate all modeling results obtained in the study area (already performed or in progress). The possibility to share information by means of web services offers a double utility: firstly it is a way to decrease the gap between scientific community's results and stakeholders' practical needs (simple interface, easy-to-use buttons in a generally user-friendly approach). Secondly the wide collection of diverse information (records of historical events, conditioning and triggering factors, information on elements at risk and their vulnerability, modeling results) in combination with the possibility of comparison among the data offers a great support in the decision-making process. As first case study, the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps) has been chosen for the pilot development of the interface. The objective is to organize, manage and share a wide range of information and calibrate a correct web-service solution. Several steps are planned to achieve this goal: the creation of a hierarchical GeoDB that includes all information available for the area (high resolution airborne and satellite imagery, various DEMs, geo-environmental factor maps, susceptibility and hazard maps, historical events and old photographs, maps of elements at risk, potential consequence maps, existing risk scenarios and risk maps) using different organizational folders (splitted in web-switches), the definition of an OpenSource Cartoweb web-platform (based on GeoDB structure) and finally the adjustment of a POSTGIS and POSTGRESQL environment to accomplish query actions, a metadata support system, and a WMS for external data connection and layer control.

Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

2014-12-01

'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

Developing Coastal Surface Roughness Maps Using ASTER and QuickBird Data Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joe; Berglund, Judith; Davis, Bruce

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation regards one element of a larger project on the integration of NASA science models and data into the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Hurricane module for hurricane damage and loss risk assessment. HAZUS-MH is a decision support tool being developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It includes the Hurricane Module, which employs surface roughness maps made from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) maps to estimate coastal hurricane wind damage and loss. NLCD maps are produced and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. This presentation discusses an effort to improve upon current HAZUS surface roughness maps by employing ASTER multispectral classifications with QuickBird "ground reference" imagery.

Mapping Vulnerability to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1900-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maynard-Ford, Miriam C.; Phillips, Emily C.; Chirico, Peter G.

2008-01-01

The vulnerability of a population and its infrastructure to disastrous events is a factor of both the probability of a hazardous event occurring and the community's ability to cope with the resulting impacts. Therefore, the ability to accurately identify vulnerable populations and places in order to prepare for future hazards is of critical importance for disaster mitigation programs. This project created maps of higher spatial resolution of vulnerability to disaster in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1900 to 2007 by mapping disaster data by first-level administrative boundaries with the objective of identifying geographic trends in regional occurrences of disasters and vulnerable populations. The method of mapping by administrative level is an improvement on displaying and analyzing disasters at the country level and shows the relative intensity of vulnerability within and between countries in the region. Disaster mapping at the country level produces only a basic view of which countries experience various types of natural disasters. Through disaggregation, the data show which geographic areas of these countries, including populated areas, are historically most susceptible to different hazard types.

keep your models up-to-date: connecting community mapping data to complex urban flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Eilander, Dirk; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Iliffe, Mark; Mawanda, Shaban; Luo, Tianyi; Kimacha, Nyambiri; Chen, Jorik

2017-04-01

The world is urbanizing rapidly. According to the United Nation's World Urbanization Prospect, 50% of the global population already lives in urban areas today. This number is expected to grow to 66% by 2050. The rapid changes in these urban environments go hand in hand with rapid changes in natural hazard risks, in particular in informal unplanned neighbourhoods. In Dar Es Salaam - Tanzania, flood risk dominates and given the rapid changes in the city, continuous updates of detailed street level hazard and risk mapping are needed to adequately support decision making for urban planning, infrastructure design and disaster response. Over the past years, the Ramani Huria and Zuia Mafuriko projects have mapped the most flood prone neighbourhoods, including roads, buildings, drainage and land use and contributed data to the open-source OpenStreetMap database. In this contribution, we will demonstrate how we mobilize these contributed data to establish dynamic flood models for Dar Es Salaam and keep these up-to-date by making a direct link between the data, and model schematization. The tools automatically establish a sound 1D drainage network as well as a high resolution terrain dataset, by fusing the OpenStreetMap data with existing lower resolution terrain data such as the globally available satellite based SRTM 30. It then translates these fully automatically into the inputs required for the D-HYDRO modeling suite. Our tools are built such that community and stakeholder knowledge can be included in the model details through workshops with the tools so that missing essential information about the city's details can be augmented on-the-fly. This process creates a continuous dialogue between members of the community that collect data, and stakeholders requiring data for flood models. Moreover, used taxonomy and data filtering can be configured to conditions in other cities, making the tools generic and scalable. The tools are made available open-source.

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Spatial prediction of ground subsidence susceptibility using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye; Choi, Jong-Kuk

2012-02-01

Ground subsidence in abandoned underground coal mine areas can result in loss of life and property. We analyzed ground subsidence susceptibility (GSS) around abandoned coal mines in Jeong-am, Gangwon-do, South Korea, using artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system approaches. Spatial data of subsidence area, topography, and geology, as well as various ground-engineering data, were collected and used to create a raster database of relevant factors for a GSS map. Eight major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted from the existing ground subsidence area: slope, depth of coal mine, distance from pit, groundwater depth, rock-mass rating, distance from fault, geology, and land use. Areas of ground subsidence were randomly divided into a training set to analyze GSS using the ANN and a test set to validate the predicted GSS map. Weights of each factor's relative importance were determined by the back-propagation training algorithms and applied to the input factor. The GSS was then calculated using the weights, and GSS maps were created. The process was repeated ten times to check the stability of analysis model using a different training data set. The map was validated using area-under-the-curve analysis with the ground subsidence areas that had not been used to train the model. The validation showed prediction accuracies between 94.84 and 95.98%, representing overall satisfactory agreement. Among the input factors, "distance from fault" had the highest average weight (i.e., 1.5477), indicating that this factor was most important. The generated maps can be used to estimate hazards to people, property, and existing infrastructure, such as the transportation network, and as part of land-use and infrastructure planning.

Comparative analysis of geodynamic activity of the Caucasian and Eastern Mediterranean segments of the Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chelidze, Tamaz; Eppelbaum, Lev

2013-04-01

The Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone (AHCZ) underwent recent transverse shortening under the effect of collisional compression. The process was accompanied by rotation of separate microplates. The Caucasian and Eastern Mediterranean regions are segments of the of the AHCZ and are characterized by intensive endogenous and exogenous geodynamic processes, which manifest themselves in occurrence of powerful (with magnitude of 8-9) earthquakes accompanied by development of secondary catastrophic processes. Large landslides, rock falls, avalanches, mud flows, etc. cause human deaths and great material losses. The development of the aforesaid endogenous processes is set forth by peculiarities of the deep structure of the region and an impact of deep geological processes. The Caucasus is divided into several main tectonic terranes: platform (sub-platform, quasi-platform) and fold-thrust units. Existing data enable to perform a division of the Caucasian region into two large-scale geological provinces: southern Tethyan and northern Tethyan located to the south of and to the north of the Lesser Caucasian ophiolite suture, respectively. The recent investigations show that the assessments of the seismic hazard in these regions are not quite correct - for example in the West Caucasus the seismic hazard can be significantly underestimated, which affects the corresponding risk assessments. Integrated analysis of gravity, magnetic, seismic and thermal data enables to refine the assessment of the seismic hazard of the region, taking into account real rates of the geodynamic movements. Important role play the last rheological constructions. According to Reilinger et al. (2006) tectonic scheme, the West flanking of the Arabian Plate manifests strike-slip motion, when the East Caucasian block is converging and shortening. The Eastern Mediterranean is a tectonically complex region located in the midst of the progressive Afro-Eurasian collision. The recent increasing geotectonic activity in this region highlights the need for combined analysis of seismo-neotectonic signatures. For this purpose, this article presents the key features of the tectonic zonation of the Eastern Mediterranean. Map of derivatives of the gravity field retracked from the Geosat satellite and novel map of the Moho discontinuity illustrate the most important tectonic features of the region. The Post-Jurassic map of the deformation of surface leveling reflects the modern tectonic stage of Eastern Mediterranean evolution. The developed tectono-geophysical zonation map integrates the potential geophysical field analysis and seismic section utilization, as well as tectonic-structural, paleogeographical and facial analyses. Tectonically the map agrees with the earlier model of continental accretion (Ben-Avraham and Ginzburg, 1990). Overlaying the seismicity map of the Eastern Mediterranean tectonic region (for the period between 1900 and 2012) on the tectonic zonation chart reveals the key features of the seismo-neotectonic pattern of the Eastern Mediterranean. The results have important implications for tectonic-seismological analysis in this region (Eppelbaum and Katz, 2012). A difference in the geotectonic patterns makes interesting comparison of geodynamic activity and seismic hazard of the Caucasian and Eastern Mediterranean segments of the AHCZ.

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, R.L.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; Savage, W.Z.; Schulz, W.H.; Brien, D.L.; Chleborad, A.F.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

2005-01-01

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

The New USGS Volcano Hazards Program Web Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venezky, D. Y.; Graham, S. E.; Parker, T. J.; Snedigar, S. F.

2008-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Volcano Hazard Program (VHP) has launched a revised web site that uses a map-based interface to display hazards information for U.S. volcanoes. The web site is focused on better communication of hazards and background volcano information to our varied user groups by reorganizing content based on user needs and improving data display. The Home Page provides a synoptic view of the activity level of all volcanoes for which updates are written using a custom Google® Map. Updates are accessible by clicking on one of the map icons or clicking on the volcano of interest in the adjacent color-coded list of updates. The new navigation provides rapid access to volcanic activity information, background volcano information, images and publications, volcanic hazards, information about VHP, and the USGS volcano observatories. The Volcanic Activity section was tailored for emergency managers but provides information for all our user groups. It includes a Google® Map of the volcanoes we monitor, an Elevated Activity Page, a general status page, information about our Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes, monitoring information, and links to monitoring data from VHP's volcano observatories: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO). The YVO web site was the first to move to the new navigation system and we are working on integrating the Long Valley Observatory web site next. We are excited to continue to implement new geospatial technologies to better display our hazards and supporting volcano information.

Communicating landslide risk by combining hazard and open infrastructure data in interactive visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo; Heidmann, Frank

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project ("DIGitaler ENtscheiderTIsch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und Volunteered Geographic Information") has the goal of quantifying and communicating the threat of natural hazards in the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia. The end-goal of the project is to provide an interactive guide for policy and decision makers, and for disaster relief coordination. Over the last years, abundant research has been done in order to analyze risk and to provide relevant information that improves effectiveness in disaster management. The communication of natural hazards risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of hazard maps. In the context of landslides, hazard maps are used to depict potential danger from landslides and visualize the possibility of future landsliding throughout a given area. Such hazard maps provide a static snapshot of the local estimated threat in a region. However, in mountainous regions, a sufficiently large landslide in remote mountainous areas may represent a potential threat to settlements located downstream of a landslide event. The research presented here proposes an approach to visualize and interactively explore landslide risk by combining static hazard maps, hydrologic networks, and OpenStreetMap data. We estimated the potential for hillslope instabilities scenarios in the region of interest by using the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate a suite Factor of Safety (FOS) maps. The FOS estimates the ratio of total resisting and driving forces to hillslope mass movements. By combining the World DEM with other environmental data (e.g., the Harmonized World Soil Database), we were able to create a suite of high-resolution landslide potential maps for the region of interest. The suite of FOS maps are calculated based on user-selectable parameters (e.g, total mass sliding thickness) that are not well constrained by field observations. We additionally use the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate the hydrologic network for our study area. This allows not only to delineate the stream network, but also to calculate the area upstream of settlements located near rivers or streams that may be impacted by distal landsliding. By integrating the potential landslide hazard in the upstream area, we create a more robust threat estimate for vulnerable settlements. Disaster relief is not only affected by the physical consequences of a hazardous event, but also by the area's accessibility and mobility capability for internal displacements. We therefore also estimate the threat along roads and to other infrastructure (e.g. bridges). Decisions based on the area's road network have to be constantly taken, for instance, to send rescue teams or to coordinate humanitarian logistics. With our approach, we are able to identify critical spots along roads with high likelihood of getting damaged. Furthermore, given a particular potential landslide location and the calculation of its downstream hydrologic network, it is possible to estimate which settlements, roads or bridges may be at risk. This approach could be integrated into flooding early warning systems and into the disaster management response phase to foresee dangers and losses and plan evacuations on time.

Shallow landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.; Laprade, William T.

2008-01-01

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated Seattle as a “Project Impact” city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map. An exceptional data set archived by the city containing more than 100 yr of landslide data from severe storm events allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to debris flows, which are water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for the analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping of the city, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units found in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a geographic information system (GIS) platform allowed us to create a shallow landslide hazard map for Seattle.

Slope stability susceptibility evaluation parameter (SSEP) rating scheme - An approach for landslide hazard zonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuvanshi, Tarun Kumar; Ibrahim, Jemal; Ayalew, Dereje

2014-11-01

In this paper a new slope susceptibility evaluation parameter (SSEP) rating scheme is presented which is developed as an expert evaluation approach for landslide hazard zonation. The SSEP rating scheme is developed by considering intrinsic and external triggering parameters that are responsible for slope instability. The intrinsic parameters which are considered are; slope geometry, slope material (rock or soil type), structural discontinuities, landuse and landcover and groundwater. Besides, external triggering parameters such as, seismicity, rainfall and manmade activities are also considered. For SSEP empirical technique numerical ratings are assigned to each of the intrinsic and triggering parameters on the basis of logical judgments acquired from experience of studies of intrinsic and external triggering factors and their relative impact in inducing instability to the slope. Further, the distribution of maximum SSEP ratings is based on their relative order of importance in contributing instability to the slope. Finally, summation of all ratings for intrinsic and triggering parameter based on actual observation will provide the expected degree of landslide in a given land unit. This information may be utilized to develop a landslide hazard zonation map. The SSEP technique was applied in the area around Wurgessa Kebelle of North Wollo Zonal Administration, Amhara National Regional State in northern Ethiopia, some 490 km from Addis Ababa. The results obtained indicates that 8.33% of the area fall under Moderately hazard and 83.33% fall within High hazard whereas 8.34% of the area fall under Very high hazard. Further, in order to validate the LHZ map prepared during the study, active landslide activities and potential instability areas, delineated through inventory mapping was overlain on it. All active landslide activities and potential instability areas fall within very high and high hazard zone. Thus, the satisfactory agreement confirms the rationality of considered governing parameters, the adopted SSEP technique, tools and procedures in developing the landslide hazard map of the study area.

Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

2015-04-01

Shallow landsliding that involve Hillslope Deposits (HD), the surficial soil that cover the bedrock, is an important process of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment along hillslopes. Despite Shallow landslides generally mobilize relatively small volume of material, they represent the most hazardous factor in mountain regions due to their high velocity and the common absence of warning signs. Moreover, increasing urbanization and likely climate change make shallow landslides a source of widespread risk, therefore the interest of scientific community about this process grown in the last three decades. One of the main aims of research projects involved on this topic, is to perform robust shallow landslides hazard assessment for wide areas (regional assessment), in order to support sustainable spatial planning. Currently, three main methodologies may be implemented to assess regional shallow landslides hazard: expert evaluation, probabilistic (or data mining) methods and physical models based methods. The aim of this work is evaluate the uncertainty of shallow landslides hazard assessment based on physical models taking into account spatial variables such as: geotechnical and hydrogeologic parameters as well as hillslope morphometry. To achieve this goal a wide dataset of geotechnical properties (shear strength, permeability, depth and unit weight) of HD was gathered by integrating field survey, in situ and laboratory tests. This spatial database was collected from a study area of about 350 km2 including different bedrock lithotypes and geomorphological features. The uncertainty associated to each step of the hazard assessment process (e.g. field data collection, regionalization of site specific information and numerical modelling of hillslope stability) was carefully characterized. The most appropriate probability density function (PDF) was chosen for each numerical variable and we assessed the uncertainty propagation on HD strength parameters obtained by empirical relations with geotechnical index properties. Site specific information was regionalized at map scale by (hard and fuzzy) clustering analysis taking into account spatial variables such as: geology, geomorphology and hillslope morphometric variables (longitudinal and transverse curvature, flow accumulation and slope), the latter derived by a DEM with 10 m cell size. In order to map shallow landslide hazard, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for some common physically based models available in literature (eg. SINMAP, SHALSTAB, TRIGRS). Furthermore, a new approach based on the use of Bayesian Network was proposed and validated. Different models, such as Intervals, Convex Models and Fuzzy Sets, were adopted for the modelling of input parameters. Finally, an accuracy assessment was carried out on the resulting maps and the propagation of uncertainty of input parameters into the final shallow landslide hazard estimation was estimated. The outcomes of the analysis are compared and discussed in term of discrepancy among map pixel values and related estimated error. The novelty of the proposed method is on estimation of the confidence of the shallow landslides hazard mapping at regional level. This allows i) to discriminate regions where hazard assessment is robust from areas where more data are necessary to increase the confidence level and ii) to assess the reliability of the procedure used for hazard assessment.

Validating national landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for Caribbean island countries: the case of Dominica and tropical storm Erika.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.

Pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): the effects of event scale, vent location and time forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Flandoli, Franco; Bisson, Marina

2016-04-01

Today hundreds of thousands people live inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) and in the adjacent part of the city of Naples making a future eruption of such volcano an event with huge consequences. Very high risks are associated with the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Mapping of background or long-term PDC hazard in the area is a great challenge due to the unknown eruption time, scale and vent location of the next event as well as the complex dynamics of the flow over the caldera topography. This is additionally complicated by the remarkable epistemic uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of past events, the location of vents as well as the PDCs areal extent estimates. First probability maps of PDC invasion were produced combining a vent-opening probability map, statistical estimates concerning the eruptive scales and a Cox-type temporal model including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Maps were produced by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified inundation model based on the "box model" integral approximation tested with 2D transient numerical simulations of flow dynamics. In this presentation we illustrate the independent effects of eruption scale, vent location and time of forecast of the next event. Specific focus was given to the remarkable differences between the eastern and western sectors of the caldera and their effects on the hazard maps. The analysis allowed to identify areas with elevated probabilities of flow invasion as a function of the diverse assumptions made. With the quantification of some sources of uncertainty in relation to the system, we were also able to provide mean and percentile maps of PDC hazard levels.

Geologic map of the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graymer, R.W.; Moring, B.C.; Saucedo, G.J.; Wentworth, C.M.; Brabb, E.E.; Knudsen, K. L.

2006-01-01

The rocks and fossils of the San Francisco Bay region reveal that the geology there is the product of millions of years at the active western margin of North America. The result of this history is a complex mosaic of geologic materials and structures that form the landscape. A geologic map is one of the basic tools to understand the geology, geologic hazards, and geologic history of a region.With heightened public awareness about earthquake hazards leading up to the 100th anniversary of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is releasing new maps of the San Francisco Bay Area designed to give residents and others a new look at the geologic history and hazards of the region. The “Geologic Map of the San Francisco Bay region” shows the distribution of geologic materials and structures, demonstrates how geologists study the age and origin of the rocks and deposits that we live on, and reveals the complicated geologic history that has led to the landscape that shapes the Bay Area.

Sinkhole risk analysis from the point of view of a public building insurance, the case of Vaud County (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolet, P.; Choffet, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Lauraux, B.; Lance, J.-. L.; Champod, E.

2012-04-01

Natural hazards are being mapped in the Vaud County and sinkhole hazard is part of this process. An preliminary hazard map has already been made based on the sinkholes occurrences and on several other parameters such as rocks types, proximity of major faults and closed basins. The detailed hazard map essentially based on the occurrence of sinkholes is in process. This map will influence the landuse planning. Presently, the public building insurance is covering the damage costs due to all natural hazards that are being mapped except sinkholes. For the sake of consistency and due to political pressure, the insurance company wants to integrate this phenomenon in its insurance coverage. This study aims to assess the potential damage costs to buildings induced by this decision. Karstic process is active in two regions in the County. The first one, namely the Folded Jura, is composed of Jurassic and Cretaceous Carbonate rocks. The second one, the Prealpine region, is composed of both Carbonate and evaporitic rocks. Even if the cavities in carbonate rocks can cause difficulties during the buildings construction, the karst development in these rocks is relatively slow and, as a result, the expected damage costs to buildings is relatively low. In contrast, the evaporitic rocks are likely to cause significant subsidence or sudden collapses at human scale and thus damage the buildings. Therefore, our study is focused on the region where this rock type occurs. It results that many buildings, i.e. more than 10'000, are concerned according to the preliminary hazard map. However some of these buildings are in zones with very low potential. Based on estimated frequencies of collapsing events and subsidence rates, the potential damage cost is estimated. Furthermore, the number of potential claims is also considered in order to know the expected additional work for the insurance company. Careful attention is also given to the potential development of building zones. In addition, the project gives guidelines for the insurance company, focusing on structural measures reducing buildings vulnerability.

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Next-Level ShakeZoning for Earthquake Hazard Definition in Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louie, J. N.; Savran, W. H.; Flinchum, B. A.; Dudley, C.; Prina, N.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Pancha, A.

2011-12-01

We are developing "Next-Level ShakeZoning" procedures tailored for defining earthquake hazards in Nevada. The current Federally sponsored tools- the USGS hazard maps and ShakeMap, and FEMA HAZUS- were developed as statistical summaries to match earthquake data from California, Japan, and Taiwan. The 2008 Wells and Mogul events in Nevada showed in particular that the generalized statistical approach taken by ShakeMap cannot match actual data on shaking from earthquakes in the Intermountain West, even to first order. Next-Level ShakeZoning relies on physics and geology to define earthquake shaking hazards, rather than statistics. It follows theoretical and computational developments made over the past 20 years, to capitalize on detailed and specific local data sets to more accurately model the propagation and amplification of earthquake waves through the multiple geologic basins of the Intermountain West. Excellent new data sets are now available for Las Vegas Valley. Clark County, Nevada has completed the nation's very first effort to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi technique, which was adapted for large-scale data collection. Using the new Parcel Map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions. In an educational element of the project, a dozen undergraduate students have been computing 50 separate earthquake scenarios affecting Las Vegas Valley, using the Next-Level ShakeZoning process. Despite affecting only the upper 30 meters, the Vs30 geotechnical shear-velocity from the Parcel Map shows clear effects on 3-d shaking predictions computed so far at frequencies from 0.1 Hz up to 1.0 Hz. The effect of the Parcel Map on even the 0.1-Hz waves is prominent even with the large mismatch of wavelength to geotechnical depths. Amplifications and de-amplifications affected by the Parcel Map exceed a factor of two, and are highly dependent on the particular scenario. As well, Parcel Map amplification effects extend into areas not characterized in the Parcel Map. The fully 3-d Next-Level ShakeZoning scenarios show many areas of shaking amplification and de-amplification that USGS ShakeMap scenarios cannot predict. For example, the Frenchman Mountain scenario shows PGV of the two approaches within 15% of each other near the source, but upwards of 200% relative amplification or de-amplification, depending on location, throughout Las Vegas Valley.

Directions of the US Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Reduction Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.

1993-01-01

The US Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Reduction Program includes studies of landslide process and prediction, landslide susceptibility and risk mapping, landslide recurrence and slope evolution, and research application and technology transfer. Studies of landslide processes have been recently conducted in Virginia, Utah, California, Alaska, and Hawaii, Landslide susceptibility maps provide a very important tool for landslide hazard reduction. The effects of engineering-geologic characteristics of rocks, seismic activity, short and long-term climatic change on landslide recurrence are under study. Detailed measurement of movement and deformation has begun on some active landslides. -from Author

Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

2015-12-01

At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

Optimizing a Sensor Network with Data from Hazard Mapping Demonstrated in a Heavy-Vehicle Manufacturing Facility.

PubMed

Berman, Jesse D; Peters, Thomas M; Koehler, Kirsten A

2018-05-28

To design a method that uses preliminary hazard mapping data to optimize the number and location of sensors within a network for a long-term assessment of occupational concentrations, while preserving temporal variability, accuracy, and precision of predicted hazards. Particle number concentrations (PNCs) and respirable mass concentrations (RMCs) were measured with direct-reading instruments in a large heavy-vehicle manufacturing facility at 80-82 locations during 7 mapping events, stratified by day and season. Using kriged hazard mapping, a statistical approach identified optimal orders for removing locations to capture temporal variability and high prediction precision of PNC and RMC concentrations. We compared optimal-removal, random-removal, and least-optimal-removal orders to bound prediction performance. The temporal variability of PNC was found to be higher than RMC with low correlation between the two particulate metrics (ρ = 0.30). Optimal-removal orders resulted in more accurate PNC kriged estimates (root mean square error [RMSE] = 49.2) at sample locations compared with random-removal order (RMSE = 55.7). For estimates at locations having concentrations in the upper 10th percentile, the optimal-removal order preserved average estimated concentrations better than random- or least-optimal-removal orders (P < 0.01). However, estimated average concentrations using an optimal-removal were not statistically different than random-removal when averaged over the entire facility. No statistical difference was observed for optimal- and random-removal methods for RMCs that were less variable in time and space than PNCs. Optimized removal performed better than random-removal in preserving high temporal variability and accuracy of hazard map for PNC, but not for the more spatially homogeneous RMC. These results can be used to reduce the number of locations used in a network of static sensors for long-term monitoring of hazards in the workplace, without sacrificing prediction performance.

The Effect of Power Protection Equipment on Explosion Hazards and on the Reliability of Power Supply to Longwall Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boron, Sergiusz

2017-06-01

Operational safety of electrical machines and equipment depends, inter alia, on the hazards resulting from their use and on the scope of applied protective measures. The use of insufficient protection against existing hazards leads to reduced operational safety, particularly under fault conditions. On the other hand, excessive (in relation to existing hazards) level of protection may compromise the reliability of power supply. This paper analyses the explosion hazard created by earth faults in longwall power supply systems and evaluates existing protection equipment from the viewpoint of its protective performance, particularly in the context of explosion hazards, and also assesses its effect on the reliability of power supply.

Mapping malaria risk using geographic information systems and remote sensing: The case of Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Minale, Amare Sewnet; Alemu, Kalkidan

2018-05-07

The main objective of this study was to develop a malaria risk map for Bahir Dar City, Amhara, which is situated south of Lake Tana on the Ethiopian plateau. Rainfall, temperature, altitude, slope and land use/land cover (LULC), as well as proximity measures to lake, river and health facilities, were investigated using remote sensing and geographical information systems. The LULC variable was derived from a 2012 SPOT satellite image by supervised classification, while 30-m spatial resolution measurements of altitude and slope came from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Metrological data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency, Bahir Dar branch. These separate datasets, represented as layers in the computer, were combined using weighted, multi-criteria evaluations. The outcome shows that rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, distance from the lake and distance from the river influenced the malaria hazard the study area by 35%, 15%, 10%, 7%, 5% and 3%, respectively, resulting in a map showing five areas with different levels of malaria hazard: very high (11.2%); high (14.5%); moderate (63.3%); low (6%); and none (5%). The malaria risk map, based on this hazard map plus additional information on proximity to health facilities and current LULC conditions, shows that Bahir Dar City has areas with very high (15%); high (65%); moderate (8%); and low (5%) levels of malaria risk, with only 2% of the land completely riskfree. Such risk maps are essential for planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating disease control as well as for contemplating prevention and elimination of epidemiological hazards from endemic areas.

Remote Sensing of Arctic Environmental Conditions and Critical Infrastructure using Infra-Red (IR) Cameras and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatfield, M. C.; Webley, P.; Saiet, E., II

2014-12-01

Remote Sensing of Arctic Environmental Conditions and Critical Infrastructure using Infra-Red (IR) Cameras and Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) Numerous scientific and logistical applications exist in Alaska and other arctic regions requiring analysis of expansive, remote areas in the near infrared (NIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) bands. These include characterization of wild land fire plumes and volcanic ejecta, detailed mapping of lava flows, and inspection of lengthy segments of critical infrastructure, such as the Alaska pipeline and railroad system. Obtaining timely, repeatable, calibrated measurements of these extensive features and infrastructure networks requires localized, taskable assets such as UAVs. The Alaska Center for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration (ACUASI) provides practical solutions to these problem sets by pairing various IR sensors with a combination of fixed-wing and multi-rotor air vehicles. Fixed-wing assets, such as the Insitu ScanEagle, offer long reach and extended duration capabilities to quickly access remote locations and provide enduring surveillance of the target of interest. Rotary-wing assets, such as the Aeryon Scout or the ACUASI-built Ptarmigan hexcopter, provide a precision capability for detailed horizontal mapping or vertical stratification of atmospheric phenomena. When included with other ground capabilities, we will show how they can assist in decision support and hazard assessment as well as giving those in emergency management a new ability to increase knowledge of the event at hand while reducing the risk to all involved. Here, in this presentation, we illustrate how UAV's can provide the ideal tool to map and analyze the hazardous events and critical infrastructure under extreme environmental conditions.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

Microzonation in Urban Areas, Basic Element for Land-Use Planning, Risk Management and Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Morales, G. F.; Dávalos Sotelo, R.; Castillo Aguilar, S.; Mora González, I.; Lermo Samaniego, J. F.; Rodriguez, M.; García Martínez, J.; Suárez, M. Leonardo; Hernández Juan, F.

2013-05-01

This paper presents the results of microzonification of the natural hazards for different metropolitan areas and highlights the importance of integrating these results in urban planning. The cities that have been covered for the definition of danger in the state of Veracruz are: Orizaba, Veracruz and Xalapa, as part of the production of a Geological and Hydrometeorology Hazards Atlas for the state of Veracruz, financed by the Funds for the Prevention of Natural Disasters FOPREDEN and CONACYT. The general data of each metropolitan area was integrated in a geographic information system (GIS), obtaining different theme maps, and maps of dynamic characteristics of soils in each metropolitan area. For the planning of an urban area to aspire to promote sustainable development, it is essential to have a great deal of the details on the pertinent information and the most important is that that has to do with the degree of exposure to natural phenomena. In general, microzonation investigations consider all natural phenomena that could potentially affect an area of interest and hazard maps for each of potential hazards are prepared. With all the data collected and generated and fed into a SIG, models were generated which define the areas most threatened by earthquake, flood and landslide slopes. These results were compared with maps of the main features in the urban zones and a qualitative classification of areas of high to low hazard was established. It will have the basic elements of information for urban planning and land use. This information will be made available to the authorities and the general public through an Internet portal where people can download and view maps using free software available online.;

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

2014-05-01

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1

Treesearch

Karin Riley; Matthew Thompson; Peter Webley; Kevin D. Hyde

2017-01-01

Modeling has been used to characterize and map natural hazards and hazard susceptibility for decades. Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards analysis, including a limited ability to predict where and when extreme events will occur, with what consequences, and driven by what contributing factors. Modeling efforts are challenged by the intrinsic...

Geographic deaggregation of seismic hazard in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Frankel, A.

2001-01-01

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States (http://geohazards. cr.usgs.gov/eq/) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

40 CFR 63.1220 - What are the replacement standards for hazardous waste burning cement kilns?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... hazardous waste burning cement kilns? 63.1220 Section 63.1220 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... burning cement kilns? (a) Emission and hazardous waste feed limits for existing sources. You must not... (whether burning hazardous waste or not) did not previously exist, to 50 parts per million by volume, over...

40 CFR 63.1220 - What are the replacement standards for hazardous waste burning cement kilns?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hazardous waste burning cement kilns? 63.1220 Section 63.1220 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... burning cement kilns? (a) Emission and hazardous waste feed limits for existing sources. You must not... (whether burning hazardous waste or not) did not previously exist, to 50 parts per million by volume, over...

40 CFR 63.1220 - What are the replacement standards for hazardous waste burning cement kilns?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... hazardous waste burning cement kilns? 63.1220 Section 63.1220 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... burning cement kilns? (a) Emission and hazardous waste feed limits for existing sources. You must not... (whether burning hazardous waste or not) did not previously exist, to 50 parts per million by volume, over...

40 CFR 63.1220 - What are the replacement standards for hazardous waste burning cement kilns?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... hazardous waste burning cement kilns? 63.1220 Section 63.1220 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... burning cement kilns? (a) Emission and hazardous waste feed limits for existing sources. You must not... (whether burning hazardous waste or not) did not previously exist, to 50 parts per million by volume, over...

40 CFR 63.1220 - What are the replacement standards for hazardous waste burning cement kilns?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... hazardous waste burning cement kilns? 63.1220 Section 63.1220 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... burning cement kilns? (a) Emission and hazardous waste feed limits for existing sources. You must not... (whether burning hazardous waste or not) did not previously exist, to 50 parts per million by volume, over...

Pyroclastic flow hazard at Volcán Citlaltépetl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheridan, Michael F.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Siebe, Claus

2004-01-01

Volcán Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) with an elevation of 5,675 m is the highest volcano in North America. Its most recent catastrophic events involved the production of pyroclastic flows that erupted approximately 4,000, 8,500, and 13,000 years ago. The distribution of mapped deposits from these eruptions gives an approximate guide to the extent of products from potential future eruptions. Because the topography of this volcano is constantly changing computer simulations were made on the present topography using three computer algorithms: energy cone, FLOW2D, and FLOW3D. The Heim Coefficient (μ), used as a code parameter for frictional sliding in all our algorithms, is the ratio of the assumed drop in elevation (H) divided by the lateral extent of the mapped deposits (L). The viscosity parameter for the FLOW2D and FLOW3D codes was adjusted so that the paths of the flows mimicked those inferred from the mapped deposits. We modeled two categories of pyroclastic flows modeled for the level I and level II events. Level I pyroclastic flows correspond to small but more frequent block-and-ash flows that remain on the main cone. Level II flows correspond to more widespread flows from catastrophic eruptions with an approximate 4,000-year repose period. We developed hazard maps from simulations based on a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) DTED-1 DEM with a 90 m grid and a vertical accuracy of ±30 m. Because realistic visualization is an important aid to understanding the risks related to volcanic hazards we present the DEM as modeled by FLOW3D. The model shows that the pyroclastic flows extend for much greater distances to the east of the volcano summit where the topographic relief is nearly 4,300 m. This study was used to plot hazard zones for pyroclastic flows in the official hazard map that was published recently.

Conception of a method for the creation of volcanic risk index maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bion, P.; Van Wyk de Vries, B.; Valentine, G.

2012-04-01

Risk index maps are a variant of risk maps, having the advantage of containing unique kinds of information - levels of risk spatially represented - and can therefore be a more effective communication tool than traditional risk maps. Nevertheless, despite their apparent simplicity, their achievement is the result of a complex risk analysis, requiring the consideration of multidisciplinary indicators, expressing different parameters of the physical and human dimensions of the environment and their interactions. The risk index is obtained in three main stages: the definition of hazard and vulnerability indicators, the transformation of the indicators into subindices through mathematical processes (formulation, standardization, weighting), and the combination of the subindices into a final index. As of now, only few attempts of risk quantification have been done, related to landslide, flood or seismic hazards, and those linked to volcanic hazards are very incomplete because of the specificities and complexities of these kinds of events and their effects. Volcanic hazards have the particularity of being of different types, moreover all events can combine together or be combined with other external events (e.g. meteorological), and they can reach and therefore affect extensive areas by different phenomena. The methodology developed here assesses risk levels in regions potentially impacted by volcanic hazards. It incorporates volcanic hazard specificities and nuances of "vulnerability" by integrating the diversity of the environmental components. It analyses the natural and human strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which are located within the areas potentially "at risk". Consequently, it considers negative but also positive indicators (respectively aggravating and improving the potential consequences), which can be internal but also external to the volcanic hazards. The approach also considers a temporal variability of the events and their direct or indirect associated effects. The developed approach tends to be especially aimed at urban planners, who would possess a new fundamental tool for organizing the territories located "nearby" volcanoes, in which population density is continually increasing. The volcanic risk index maps would give indications on the areas with the highest risk level, and the urban planners would also be able to determine the elements causing such level. This would lead them to the possibility of proposing recommendations and adequate measures to participate to the reduction of vulnerability, in particular in limiting the exposure and the impacts associated with the volcanic hazards, which would consequently reduce the volcanic risks.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

2010-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow Potential and Impound Water Upstream Flow Potential. The FCM is constructed using what is currently our understanding of how glacier lake outbursts occur, whereas the causal connection between concepts is defined to capture the expertise of glacier scientists. The proposed graph contains 27 nodes and a network of connections that represent the causal link between concepts. To test the developed FCM, we defined three scenarios representing glacier lake environmental conditions that either occurred or that are likely to occur in such highly dynamic environments. For each case, the FCM has been initialized using observables extracted from hypothesized remote sensing imagery. The map, which converges to a fixed point for all of the test scenarios within 15 iterations, shows reasoning consistent with that of glacier experts. The FCM-based cognitive approach has the potential to be the AI core of real-time operational hazards assessment and detection systems.

Down to Earth with an electric hazard from space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Bedrosian, Paul A.; Schultz, Adam

2017-01-01

In reaching across traditional disciplinary boundaries, solid-Earth geophysicists and space physicists are forging new collaborations to map magnetic-storm hazards for electric-power grids. Future progress in evaluation storm time geoelectric hazards will come primarily through monitoring, surveys, and modeling of related data.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

Earthquake Hazard Class Mapping by Parcel in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pancha, A.; Pullammanappallil, S.; Louie, J. N.; Hellmer, W. K.

2011-12-01

Clark County, Nevada completed the very first effort in the United States to map earthquake hazard class systematically through an entire urban area. The map is used in development and disaster response planning, in addition to its direct use for building code implementation and enforcement. The County contracted with the Nevada System of Higher Education to classify about 500 square miles including urban Las Vegas Valley, and exurban areas considered for future development. The Parcel Map includes over 10,000 surface-wave array measurements accomplished over three years using Optim's SeisOpt° ReMi measurement and processing techniques adapted for large scale data. These array measurements classify individual parcels on the NEHRP hazard scale. Parallel "blind" tests were conducted at 93 randomly selected sites. The rms difference between the Vs30 values yielded by the blind data and analyses and the Parcel Map analyses is 4.92%. Only six of the blind-test sites showed a difference with a magnitude greater than 10%. We describe a "C+" Class for sites with Class B average velocities but soft surface soil. The measured Parcel Map shows a clearly definable C+ to C boundary on the west side of the Valley. The C to D boundary is much more complex. Using the parcel map in computing shaking in the Valley for scenario earthquakes is crucial for obtaining realistic predictions of ground motions.

PHLUX: Photographic Flux Tools for Solar Glare and Flux

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2010-12-02

A web-based tool to a) analytically and empirically quantify glare from reflected light and determine the potential impact (e.g., temporary flash blindness, retinal burn), and b) produce flux maps for central receivers. The tool accepts RAW digital photographs of the glare source (for hazard assessment) or the receiver (for flux mapping), as well as a photograph of the sun for intensity and size scaling. For glare hazard assessment, the tool determines the retinal irradiance (W/cm2) and subtended source angle for an observer and plots the glare source on a hazard spectrum (i.e., low-potential for flash blindness impact, potential for flashmore » blindness impact, retinal burn). For flux mapping, the tool provides a colored map of the receiver scaled by incident solar flux (W/m2) and unwraps the physical dimensions of the receiver while accounting for the perspective of the photographer (e.g., for a flux map of a cylindrical receiver, the horizontal axis denotes receiver angle in degrees and the vertical axis denotes vertical position in meters; for a flat panel receiver, the horizontal axis denotes horizontal position in meters and the vertical axis denotes vertical position in meters). The flux mapping capability also allows the user to specify transects along which the program plots incident solar flux on the receiver.« less

Vision guided landing of an an autonomous helicopter in hazardous terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Andrew E.; Montgomery, Jim

2005-01-01

Future robotic space missions will employ a precision soft-landing capability that will enable exploration of previously inaccessible sites that have strong scientific significance. To enable this capability, a fully autonomous onboard system that identifies and avoids hazardous features such as steep slopes and large rocks is required. Such a system will also provide greater functionality in unstructured terrain to unmanned aerial vehicles. This paper describes an algorithm for landing hazard avoidance based on images from a single moving camera. The core of the algorithm is an efficient application of structure from motion to generate a dense elevation map of the landing area. Hazards are then detected in this map and a safe landing site is selected. The algorithm has been implemented on an autonomous helicopter testbed and demonstrated four times resulting in the first autonomous landing of an unmanned helicopter in unknown and hazardous terrain.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

2017-11-01

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

Study of application of ERTS-A imagery to fracture related mine safety hazards in the coal mining industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wier, C. E.; Wobber, F. J. (Principal Investigator); Russell, O. R.; Amato, R. V.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The utility of ERTS-1/high altitude aircraft imagery to detect underground mine hazards is strongly suggested. A 1:250,000 scale mined lands map of the Vincennes Quadrangle, Indiana has been prepared. This map is a prototype for a national mined lands inventory and will be distributed to State and Federal offices.

Hazardous gas detection for FTIR-based hyperspectral imaging system using DNN and CNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yong Chan; Yu, Hyeong-Geun; Lee, Jae-Hoon; Park, Dong-Jo; Nam, Hyun-Woo

2017-10-01

Recently, a hyperspectral imaging system (HIS) with a Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer has been widely used due to its strengths in detecting gaseous fumes. Even though numerous algorithms for detecting gaseous fumes have already been studied, it is still difficult to detect target gases properly because of atmospheric interference substances and unclear characteristics of low concentration gases. In this paper, we propose detection algorithms for classifying hazardous gases using a deep neural network (DNN) and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In both the DNN and CNN, spectral signal preprocessing, e.g., offset, noise, and baseline removal, are carried out. In the DNN algorithm, the preprocessed spectral signals are used as feature maps of the DNN with five layers, and it is trained by a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm (50 batch size) and dropout regularization (0.7 ratio). In the CNN algorithm, preprocessed spectral signals are trained with 1 × 3 convolution layers and 1 × 2 max-pooling layers. As a result, the proposed algorithms improve the classification accuracy rate by 1.5% over the existing support vector machine (SVM) algorithm for detecting and classifying hazardous gases.

Flood-hazard mapping in Honduras in response to Hurricane Mitch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

2002-01-01

The devastation in Honduras due to flooding from Hurricane Mitch in 1998 prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development, through the U.S. Geological Survey, to develop a country-wide systematic approach of flood-hazard mapping and a demonstration of the method at selected sites as part of a reconstruction effort. The design discharge chosen for flood-hazard mapping was the flood with an average return interval of 50 years, and this selection was based on discussions with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Honduran Public Works and Transportation Ministry. A regression equation for estimating the 50-year flood discharge using drainage area and annual precipitation as the explanatory variables was developed, based on data from 34 long-term gaging sites. This equation, which has a standard error of prediction of 71.3 percent, was used in a geographic information system to estimate the 50-year flood discharge at any location for any river in the country. The flood-hazard mapping method was demonstrated at 15 selected municipalities. High-resolution digital-elevation models of the floodplain were obtained using an airborne laser-terrain mapping system. Field verification of the digital elevation models showed that the digital-elevation models had mean absolute errors ranging from -0.57 to 0.14 meter in the vertical dimension. From these models, water-surface elevation cross sections were obtained and used in a numerical, one-dimensional, steady-flow stepbackwater model to estimate water-surface profiles corresponding to the 50-year flood discharge. From these water-surface profiles, maps of area and depth of inundation were created at the 13 of the 15 selected municipalities. At La Lima only, the area and depth of inundation of the channel capacity in the city was mapped. At Santa Rose de Aguan, no numerical model was created. The 50-year flood and the maps of area and depth of inundation are based on the estimated 50-year storm tide.

Implementation of numerical simulations for rockfall hazard mapping in the Norddal municipality, Norway.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yugsi Molina, Freddy Xavier; Oppikofer, Thierry; Otterå, Solveig; Hermanns, Reginald; Taurisano, Andrea; Wasrud, Jaran; Are Jensen, Odd; Rødseth Kvakland, Marte

2013-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU) are implementing a nationwide program to systematically produce hazard maps for rockfalls, debris flows and snow avalanches in steep terrains. Activities during this program mapping are being carried out by both institutions, and for some areas, outsourced to the private sector. The results presented in this contribution focus on the rockfall component only, and are part of the hazard mapping activities carried out by NGU. Results from all parties involved will further lead in future, in combination with the components on debris flows and snow avalanches, to the preparation of guidelines for landslide hazard mapping. Those will be presented and recommended for the use of private consultants that work on municipality level. The first goal of the project is the preparation of hazard maps for critical areas where a large number of people are exposed to the threat of such type of mass movements. Results from a pilot area in Sylte (Norddal municipality) were presented in the EGU general assembly in 2012. The main objective of this contribution is to present the first finished rockfall hazard maps generated by NGU during the execution of the program. The results presented in this contribution were obtained for the Norddal municipality (Møre og Romsdal county). The area was selected based on the hazard mapping plan of Norway published in 2011, where Norddal is considered a priority area. The area is located in a valley over-steepened by glacial erosion that is characterized by high cliffs of medium to coarse-grained quartz-dioritic to granitic gneisses of Proterozoic age. Multiple scree deposits product of older and recent rockfall activity can be seen along the bottom at both valley flanks. Sylte, the main locality in the Norddal municipality, is located at the valley outlet to the fjord. Several other smaller localities are found along the valley. A spatial geodatabase containing information regarding block sources, block shape and size, rock type, geometry and material properties along the potential rockfall tracks, and presence of natural energy attenuators (i.e. forest) was generated with data obtained during field work. Remote sensing imagery (high resolution aerial photographs), and a high resolution airborne LiDAR-based terrain model (1 m of spatial resolution) were used to extrapolate the information collected during field work to the full extent of the study area. Based on statistical analysis of the observed rock blocks a probability density function of the block size was obtained. This information was used to define the frequency of rockfall events of different sizes. Three scenarios were generated that follow the Norwegian regulations for construction (the Norwegian Building Act) for three different return periods: 100, 1000, and 5000 years. Numerical simulations using Rockyfor3D v. 5.0 (www.ecorisq.org) were performed for the three selected scenarios. Curves representing the maximum reach of blocks for every defined scenario with the sufficient energy to cause enough damage on buildings and houses that could threat the life of their inhabitants were used to define the hazard maps. Results show a good fit with the location of scree deposits found during field recognition. According to the results for events corresponding to the 100 year return period, populated areas are out of the hazardous zones except for the area of Sylte due to the proximity of the village to a large rock cliff. 1000 and 5000 year scenarios show some other localities along the valley prone to be affected by rockfalls. Maps will be communicated to local authorities to help defining short and long term policies regarding land use.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Evaluation of iconic versus F-map microburst displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzberger, Mark; Hansman, R. John; Wanke, Craig

1994-01-01

Previous studies have shown graphical presentation methods of hazardous wind shear to be superior to textual or audible warnings alone. Positional information and the strength of the hazard were observed to be and were cited by pilots as the most important factors in a display. In this experiment the use of the three different graphical presentations of hazardous wind shear are examined. Airborne predictive detectors of wind shear enable the dissemination of varying levels of information. The effectiveness of iconic and mapping display modes of different complexities are addressed through simulation and analysis. Different positional and time-varying situations are presented in a 'part-task' Boeing 767 simulator using data from actual microburst events. Experienced airline pilots fly approach profiles using both iconic and F-map wind shear alerting displays. Microburst accompanied each event is also shown to the pilot. Mapping display types are expected to be found exceptionally efficient at conveying location comparison information while iconic displays simplify the threat recognition process. Preliminary results from the simulator study are presented. Recommendations concerning the suitability of multilevel iconic and mapping displays are made. Situational problems with current display prototypes are also addressed.

Shallow-landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.; Laprade, William T.

2006-01-01

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated Seattle as a 'Project Impact' city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to the effects of landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map of the city. An exceptional data set archived by the city, containing more than 100 years of landslide data from severe storm events, allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides which often mobilize into debris flows, water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock, and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform allowed the preparation of a shallow landslide hazard map for the entire city of Seattle.

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... with water surface elevations determined A0 Area of special flood hazards having shallow water depths... insurance rating purposes AH Areas of special flood hazards having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable... of special flood hazards having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable flow paths between (1) and...

Tourism hazard potentials in Mount Merapi: how to deal with the risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.; Meilani, R.

2018-05-01

Mount Merapi as one of the most popular natural tourism destination in Indonesia, indicated as disaster prone area. Hazard management is required to ensure visitors safety. Hazard identification and mapping are prerequisite in developing proper hazard management recommendation. This study aimed to map hazard potentials’ geographical positions obtained with geographical positioning system and to identify the hazard management being implemented. Data collection was carried out in Mei – June 2017 through observation and interview. Hiking trail and Lava tour area was selected as the study site, since the sites are the main areas for tourism activities in Mount Merapi. The type of hazards found in the area included lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land slide, extreme weather, slope and loose rock. Early warning system had been developed in this area, however the mechanism to regulate tourism activities still had to be improved. Local tourism entrepreneurs should be involved in the network of early warning system stakeholders to ensure tourist safety, and their capacity should be improved in order to be able to perform the measures needed for handling accident and disaster occurrences. Interpretive media explaining hazard potentials may be used to improve visitors’ awareness and ability to cope with the risk.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Climate services for adapting landslide hazard prevention measures in the Vrancea Seismic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Balteanu, Dan; Jurchescu, Marta; Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

The Vrancea Seismic Region is covering an area of about 8 000 km2 in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians and it is considered one of Europe's most intensely multi-hazard-affected areas. Due to its geomorphic traits (heterogeneous morphostructural units of flysch mountains and molasse hills and depressions), the area is strongly impacted by extreme hydro-meteorological events which are potentially enhancing the numerous damages inflicted to a dense network of human settlements. An a priori knowledge of future climate change is a useful climate service for local authorities to develop regional adapting strategies and adequate prevention/preparedness frameworks. This paper aims at integrating the results of the high-resolution climate projections over the 21st century (within the FP7 ECLISE project) into the regional landslide hazard assessment. The requirements of users (Civil Protection, Land management, local authorities) for this area refer to reliable and high-resolution spatial data on landslide and flood hazard for short and medium-term risk management strategies. An insight into the future behavior of climate variability in the Vrancea Seismic Region, based on future climate projections of three regional models, under three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 8.6), suggests a clear warming, both annually and seasonally and a rather limited annual precipitation decrease, but with a strong change of seasonality. A landslide inventory of 2485 cases (shallow and medium seated earth, debris and rock slides and earth and debris flows) was obtained based on large scale geomorphological mapping and aerial photos support (GeoEye, DigitalGlobe; provided by GoogleEarth and BingMaps). The landslides are uniformly distributed across the area, being considered representative for the entire morphostructural environment. Landslide susceptibility map was obtained using multivariate statistical analysis (logistic regression), while a relative landslide hazard index was computed based on semi-quantitative spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The generation of the landslide hazard maps relies on the heuristic approach, since a historical record of landslide occurrences, necessary to produce magnitude-frequency relations, is lacking. Based on the assumption of Sanderson et al. (1996) that slopes' morphology has adjusted, since the last glaciation, to the region's "normal" climatic conditions in all aspects including failures, it becomes clear that an extreme character of precipitation would be highly likely to generate landslides. Therefore, in order to represent the landslides triggering factor, raster maps for both time horizons (present and future) as simulated within each climate scenario have been used to illustrate the probabilistic seasonal precipitation amounts expected within a 30-year and a 100-year return period respectively. These maps, considered reliable indicators for depicting the changes in landslide occurrence probability, were standardized according to their contribution to hazard before being included in the SMCE together with the susceptibility map. The resulted hazard index maps for the two time horizons were compared aiming at detecting the future potential climate-induced changes in the spatial patterns of landslide occurrence. The outcomes mostly meet the requirements for updating the regional landslide risk management strategies.

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 9.7 - Determination of proposed action's location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Regional Administrator shall consult the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) the Flood Boundary Floodway Map (FBFM) and the Flood Insurance Study (FIS). (ii) If a detailed map (FIRM or FBFM) is not available, the Regional Administrator shall consult an FEMA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) . If data on flood...

Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

2012-04-01

The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment", Activity 1.3.3.1 "Prediction of triggering and risk assessment for landslides".

Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

2011-12-01

Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

Fostering the uptake of satellite Earth Observation data for landslide hazard understanding: the CEOS Landslide Pilot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Roessner, Sigrid

2017-04-01

Landslides occur around the world, on every continent, and play an important role in the evolution of landscapes. They also represent a serious hazard in many areas of the world. Despite their importance, it has been estimated that past landslide and landslide potential maps cover less than 1% of the slopes in these landmasses. Systematic information on the type, abundance, and distribution of existing landslides is lacking. Even in countries where landslide information is abundant (e.g. Italy), the vast majority of landslides caused by meteorological (intense or prolonged rainfall, rapid snowmelt) or geophysical (earthquake) triggers go undetected. This paucity of knowledge has consequences on the design of effective remedial and mitigation measures. Systematic use of Earth observation (EO) data and technologies can contribute effectively to detect, map, and monitor landslides, and landslide prone hillsides, in different physiographic and climatic regions. The CEOS (Committee on Earth Observation Satellites) Working Group on Disasters has recently launched a Landslide Pilot (period 2017-2019) with the aim to demonstrate the effective exploitation of satellite EO across the full cycle of landslide disaster risk management, including preparedness, response, and recovery at global, regional, and local scales, with a distinct multi-hazard focus on cascading impacts and risks. The Landslide Pilot is focusing efforts on three objectives: 1. Establish effective practices for merging different Earth Observation data (e.g. optical and radar) to better monitor and map landslide activity over time and space. 2. Demonstrate how landslide products, models, and services can support disaster risk management for multi-hazard and cascading landslide events. 3. Engage and partner with data brokers and end users to understand requirements and user expectations and get feedback through the activities described in objectives 1-2. The Landslide Pilot was endorsed in April 2016 and work started in fall 2016. The first data from the CEOS space agencies will become available in early 2017. The pilot is focused on two main regions (Nepal and the US Pacific Northwest), and five experimental regions (US Southeast Alaska, sub-part of China, the Caribbean, Peru, and Indonesia. The objective of this contribution is to present the Landslide Pilot and the working methodology to a broader scientific community with the goal of further encouraging active involvement.

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy. The final objective will be to analyse how the loss prospective can change when mitigation measures, including actions to reduce the flood hazard and strategies to prevent potential consequences, are implemented. Flood impacts and the corresponding value of mitigation measures will be assessed by means of a cost-benefit analysis in accordance with the EU Floods Directive.

Lidar-Based Navigation Algorithm for Safe Lunar Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, David M.; Johnson, Andrew E.; Werner, Robert A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of Hazard Relative Navigation (HRN) is to provide measurements to the Navigation Filter so that it can limit errors on the position estimate after hazards have been detected. The hazards are detected by processing a hazard digital elevation map (HDEM). The HRN process takes lidar images as the spacecraft descends to the surface and matches these to the HDEM to compute relative position measurements. Since the HDEM has the hazards embedded in it, the position measurements are relative to the hazards, hence the name Hazard Relative Navigation.

Terrain classification and land hazard mapping in Kalsi-Chakrata area (Garhwal Himalaya), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choubey, Vishnu D.; Litoria, Pradeep K.

Terrain classification and land system mapping of a part of the Garhwal Himalaya (India) have been used to provide a base map for land hazard evaluation, with special reference to landslides and other mass movements. The study was based on MSS images, aerial photographs and 1:50,000 scale maps, followed by detailed field-work. The area is composed of two groups of rocks: well exposed sedimentary Precambrian formations in the Himalayan Main Boundary Thrust Belt and the Tertiary molasse deposits of the Siwaliks. Major tectonic boundaries were taken as the natural boundaries of land systems. A physiographic terrain classification included slope category, forest cover, occurrence of landslides, seismicity and tectonic activity in the area.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... flood hazard that results from the decertification of a previously accredited flood protection system that is determined to be in the process of being restored to provide base flood protection V Area of... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface...

76 FR 28326 - Pipeline Safety: National Pipeline Mapping System Data Submissions and Submission Dates for Gas...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-17

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR 191... Reports AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), DOT. ACTION: Issuance of... Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) published a final rule on November 26, 2010...

2014 Update of the Pacific Northwest portion of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Chen, Rui; Petersen, Mark; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Sherrod, Brian

2015-01-01

Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupture zones. These logic trees reflect recent findings of additional M8 CSZ earthquakes using offshore deposits of turbidity flows and onshore tsunami deposits and subsidence. These M8 earthquakes each rupture a portion of the CSZ and occur in the time periods between M9 earthquakes that have an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The maximum magnitude was increased for deep intraslab earthquakes. An areal source zone to account for the possibility of deep earthquakes under western Oregon was expanded. The western portion of the Tacoma fault was added to the hazard maps.

New seismic hazard maps for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.; Frankel, A.; Petersen, M.; Leyendecker, E.

2010-01-01

The probabilistic methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is applied to a new seismic hazard assessment for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Modeled seismic sources include gridded historical seismicity, subduction-interface and strike-slip faults with known slip rates, and two broad zones of crustal extension with seismicity rates constrained by GPS geodesy. We use attenuation relations from western North American and worldwide data, as well as a Caribbean-specific relation. Results are presented as maps of peak ground acceleration and 0.2- and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years (return periods of about 2,500 and 500 years, respectively). This paper describes the hazard model and maps that were balloted by the Building Seismic Safety Council and recommended for the 2003 NEHRP Provisions and the 2006 International Building Code. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertito, Vincenzo; Zollo, Aldo

2011-08-01

In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982-1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.

Building a risk-targeted regional seismic hazard model for South-East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woessner, J.; Nyst, M.; Seyhan, E.

2015-12-01

The last decade has tragically shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs and initiatives to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way with the focus on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to develop appropriate models to cope with the economic consequences and impact on the insurance business. We present the source model and ground motions model components suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The source model builds upon refined modelling approaches to characterize 1) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 2) along the interface of subduction zones and within the slabs and 3) earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for the hazardous crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones, showcase some characteristics and sensitivities due to existing uncertainties in the rate and hazard space using a well selected suite of ground motion prediction equations. Finally, we analyze the source model by quantifying the contribution by source type (e.g., subduction zone, crustal fault) to typical risk metrics (e.g.,return period losses, average annual loss) and reviewing their relative impact on various lines of businesses.

Simulation of a Doppler lidar system for autonomous navigation and hazard avoidance during planetary landing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budge, Scott E.; Chester, David B.

2016-05-01

The latest mission proposals for exploration of solar system bodies require accurate position and velocity data during the descent phase in order to ensure safe, soft landing at the pre-designated sites. During landing maneuvers, the accuracy of the on-board inertial measurement unit (IMU) may not be reliable due to drift over extended travel times to destinations. NASA has proposed an advanced Doppler lidar system with multiple beams that can be used to accurately determine attitude and position of the landing vehicle during descent, and to detect hazards that might exist in the landing area. In order to assess the effectiveness of such a Doppler lidar landing system, it is valuable to simulate the system with different beam numbers and configurations. In addition, the effectiveness of the system to detect and map potential landing hazards must be understood. This paper reports the simulated system performance for a proposed multi-beam Doppler lidar using the LadarSIM system simulation software. Details of the simulation methods are given, as well as lidar performance parameters such as range and velocity accuracy, detection and false alarm rates, and examples of the Doppler lidars ability to detect and characterize simulated hazards in the landing site. The simulation includes modulated pulse generation and coherent detection methods, beam footprint simulation, beam scanning, and interaction with terrain.

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

Landslide Hazard in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaprindashvili, G.; Tsereteli, E.; Gaprindashvili, M.

2013-12-01

In the last decades of the XX century, protect the population from geological hazards, to maintain land and safe operation of the engineering facilities has become the most important social - economic, demographic, political and environmental problems for the whole world. Georgia, with its scales of origination of the natural-catastrophic processes (landslide, mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.), their re-occurrence and with the negative results inflicted by these processes to the population, agricultural lands and engineering objects, is one of the most complex mountainous region. The extremely sensitive conditions were conditioned by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Activation of the negative meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic changes and their abnormally frequent occurrence (mostly increased atmospheric precipitations, temperature and humidity); 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. Following the problem urgency, a number of departmental and research institutions have made their operations more intense in the given direction within the limits of their competence. First of all, the activity of the Department of Geology of Georgia (which is at present included in the National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection), which mapped, identified and cataloged the hazardous processes on the territory of the country and identified the spatial limits and developmental regularities of these processes for tens of years. The increased risk of Geological catastrophes in Georgia first of all is caused by insufficient information between society and responsible persons toward this event. The existed situation needs the base assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, to determine their caused reasons, to develop special maps in GIS system, and continuous functioning of geo monitoring researches for develop safety early warning system.

Landslide Hazard in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaprindashvili, George; Tsereteli, Emil; Gaprindashvili, Merab

2014-05-01

In the last decades of the XX century, protect the population from geological hazards, to maintain land and safe operation of the engineering facilities has become the most important social - economic, demographic, political and environmental problems for the whole world. Georgia, with its scales of origination of the natural-catastrophic processes (landslide, mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.), their re-occurrence and with the negative results inflicted by these processes to the population, agricultural lands and engineering objects, is one of the most complex mountainous region. The extremely sensitive conditions were conditioned by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Activation of the negative meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic changes and their abnormally frequent occurrence (mostly increased atmospheric precipitations, temperature and humidity); 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. Following the problem urgency, a number of departmental and research institutions have made their operations more intense in the given direction within the limits of their competence. First of all, the activity of the Department of Geology of Georgia (which is at present included in the National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection), which mapped, identified and cataloged the hazardous processes on the territory of the country and identified the spatial limits and developmental regularities of these processes for tens of years. The increased risk of Geological catastrophes in Georgia first of all is caused by insufficient information between society and responsible persons toward this event. The existed situation needs the base assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, to determine their caused reasons, to develop special maps in GIS system, and continuous functioning of geo monitoring researches for develop safety early warning system.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

How a Country-Wide Seismological Network Can Improve Understanding of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard -- The Example of Bhutan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetényi, G.; Diehl, T.; Singer, J.; Kissling, E. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

2015-12-01

The Eastern Himalayas are home to a seemingly complex seismo-tectonic evolution. The rate of instrumental seismicity is lower than the average along the orogen, there is no record of large historical events, but both paleoseismology and GPS studies point to potentially large (M>8) earthquakes. Due to the lack of a permanent seismic monitoring system in the area, our current level of understanding is inappropriate to create a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for the region. Existing maps are based on questionable hypotheses and show major inconsistencies when compared to each other. Here we present results on national and regional scales from a 38-station broadband seismological network we operated for almost 2 years in the Kingdom of Bhutan. A thorough, state-of-the-art analysis of local and regional earthquakes builds a comprehensive catalogue that reveals significantly (2-to-3 orders of magnitude) more events than detected from global networks. The seismotectonic analysis reveals new patterns of seismic activity as well as striking differences over relatively short distances within the Himalayas, only partly explained by surface observations such as geology. We compare a priori and a posteriori (BMC) magnitude of completeness maps and show that our network was able to detect all felt events during its operation. Some of these events could be felt at surprisingly large distances. Based on our experiment and experience, we draft the pillars on which a permanent seismological observatory for Bhutan could be constructed. Such a continuous monitoring system of seismic activity could then lead to a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for Bhutan and surrounding regions, and serve as a base to improve building codes and general preparedness.

New Methodologies Applied to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Southern Calabria (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, R.; Chiappini, M.; Speranza, F.; Carluccio, R.; Greco, M.

2016-12-01

Although it is generally recognized that the M7+ 1783 and 1908 Calabria earthquakes were caused by normal faults rupturing the upper crust of the southern Calabria-Peloritani area, no consensus exists on seismogenic source location and orientation. A recent high-resolution low-altitude aeromagnetic survey of southern Calabria and Messina straits suggested that the sources of the 1783 and 1908 earthquakes are en echelon faults belonging to the same NW dipping normal fault system straddling the whole southern Calabria. The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active fault system modeled by the data obtained from the aeromagnetic survey and other recent geological studies has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100,000 years and containing more than 25,000 events of magnitudes ≥ 4.0. The algorithm on which this simulator is based is constrained by several physical elements as: (a) an average slip rate due to tectonic loading for every single segment in the investigated fault system, (b) the process of rupture growth and termination, leading to a self-organized earthquake magnitude distribution, and (c) interaction between earthquake sources, including small magnitude events. Events nucleated in one segment are allowed to expand into neighboring segments, if they are separated by a given maximum range of distance. The application of our simulation algorithm to Calabria region provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range. Lastly, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedence probability of given values of peak acceleration (PGA) on the territory under investigation. These maps can be compared with the existing hazard maps that are presently used in the national seismic building regulations.

Landslide hazard assessment : LIFE+IMAGINE project methodology and Liguria region use case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spizzichino, Daniele; Campo, Valentina; Congi, Maria Pia; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Leoni, Gabriele; Trigila, Alessandro

2015-04-01

Scope of the work is to present a methodology developed for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement a web services-based infrastructure addressed to environmental analysis, that integrates, in its own architecture, specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services has been customized to provide functionalities for supporting environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure has been applied to landslide risk scenarios, developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. The landslide pilot and related scenario are focused at providing a simplified Landslide Risk Assessment (LRA) through: 1) a landslide inventory derived from available historical and recent databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements 5) development of a use case; 6) definition of guidelines, best practices and production of thematic maps. The LRA has been implemented in Liguria region, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience. The landslide risk impact analysis has been calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. During this event, over 600 landslides were triggered in the selected pilot area. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct disruption of the walls as well as transportation of a large amount of loose sediments along the slopes and channels as induced consequence of the event. Application of a spatial analysis detected ca. 400 critical point along the road network with an average length of about 200 m. Over 1,000 buildings were affected and damaged by the event. The exposed population in the area involved by the event has been estimated in ca. 2,600 inhabitants (people?). In the pilot area, 19 different typologies of Cultural Heritage were affected by landslide phenomena or located in zones classified as high landslide hazard. The final scope of the landslide scenario is to improve the awareness on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and landslide risk in the Cinque Terre National Park to the benefit of local authorities and population. In addition, the results of the application will be used for updating the land planning process in order to improve the resilience of local communities, ii) implementing cost-benefit analysis aimed at the definition of guidelines for sustainable landslide risk mitigation strategies, iii) suggesting a general road map for the implementation of a local adaptation plan.

The use of mental models in chemical risk protection: developing a generic workplace methodology.

PubMed

Cox, Patrick; Niewöhmer, Jörg; Pidgeon, Nick; Gerrard, Simon; Fischhoff, Baruch; Riley, Donna

2003-04-01

We adopted a comparative approach to evaluate and extend a generic methodology to analyze the different sets of beliefs held about chemical hazards in the workplace. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures about the risks associated with the use of perchloroethylene and rosin-based solder flux in differing workplaces. "Influence diagrams" were used to represent beliefs held by chemical experts; "user models" were developed from data elicited from open-ended interviews with the workplace users of the chemicals. The juxtaposition of expert and user understandings of chemical risks enabled us to identify knowledge gaps and misunderstandings and to reinforce appropriate sets of safety beliefs and behavior relevant to chemical risk communications. By designing safety information to be more relevant to the workplace context of users, we believe that employers and employees may gain improved knowledge about chemical hazards in the workplace, such that better chemical risk management, self-protection, and informed decision making develop over time.

Numerical run-out modelling used for reassessment of existing permanent avalanche paths in the Krkonose Mts., Czechia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blahut, Jan; Klimes, Jan; Balek, Jan; Taborik, Petr; Juras, Roman; Pavlasek, Jiri

2015-04-01

Run-out modelling of snow avalanches is being widely applied in high mountain areas worldwide. This study presents application of snow avalanche run-out calculation applied to mid-mountain ranges - the Krkonose, Jeseniky and Kralicky Sneznik Mountains. All mentioned mountain ranges lie in the northern part of Czechia, close to the border with Poland. Its highest peak reaches only 1602 m a.s.l. However, climatic conditions and regular snowpack presence are the reason why these mountain ranges experience considerable snow avalanche activity every year, sometimes resulting in injuries or even fatalities. Within the aim of an applied project dealing with snow avalanche hazard prediction a re-assessment of permanent snow avalanche paths has been performed based on extensive statistics covering period from 1961/62 till present. On each avalanche path different avalanches with different return periods were modelled using the RAMMS code. As a result, an up-to-date snow avalanche hazard map was prepared.

Hazards and accessibility: combining and visualizing threat and open infrastructure data for disaster management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Ehmel, Fabian; Heidmann, Frank; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area's local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.

The ASTER emergency scheduling system: A new project linking near-real-time satellite monitoring of disasters to the acquisition of high-resolution remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, M.; Dehn, J.; Wessels, R.; Byrnes, J.; Duda, K.; Maldonado, L.; Dwyer, J.

2004-12-01

Numerous government agencies and university partnerships are currently utilizing orbital instruments with high-temporal/low-spatial resolution (e.g. MODIS, AVHRR) to monitor hazards. These hazards are varied and include both natural (volcanic eruptions, severe weather, wildfires, earthquake damage) and anthropogenic (environmental damage, urban terrorism). Although monitoring a hazardous situation is critical, a key strategy of NASA's Earth science program is to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its responses to changes, as well as to improve prediction of hazard onset. In order to develop a quantitative scientific basis from which to model transient geological and climatological hazards, much higher spatial/spectral resolution datasets are required. Such datasets are sparse, currently available from certain government (e.g. ASTER, Hyperion) and commercial (e.g. IKONOS, QuickBird) instruments. However, only ASTER has the capability to acquire high spatial resolution data from the visible to thermal infrared (TIR) wavelength region in conjunction with digital elevation models (DEM) generation. These capabilities are particularly useful for numerous aspects of volcanic remote sensing. For example, multispectral TIR data are critical for monitoring low temperature anomalies and mapping both chemical and textural variations on volcanic surfaces. Because ASTER data are scheduled in advance and the raw data are sent to Japan for calibration processing, rapid acquisition of hazards becomes problematic. However, a "rapid response" mode does exist for ASTER data scheduling and processing, but its availability is limited and requires significant human interaction. A newly-funded NASA ASTER science team project seeks to link this ASTER rapid response pathway to larger-scale monitoring alerts, which are already in-place and in-use by other organizations. By refining the initial event detection criteria and improving interfaces between these organizations and the ASTER project, we expect to minimize lag time and use existing monitoring tools as triggers for the emergency response of ASTER. The first phase of this project will be integrated into the Alaska Volcano Observatory's current near-real-time volcanic monitoring system, which relies on high temporal/low spatial resolution orbital data. This synergy will allow small-scale activity to be targeted for science and response, and a calibration baseline between each sensor to be established. If successful, this will be the first time that high spatial resolution, multispectral satellite data will be routinely scheduled, acquired, and analyzed in a "rapid response" mode within an existing hazard monitoring framework. Initial testing of this system is now underway using data from previous eruptions in the north Pacific region, and modifications to the rapid data flow procedure within the ASTER science and support structure has begun.

GIS-based pollution hazard mapping and assessment framework of shallow lakes: southeastern Pampean lakes (Argentina) as a case study.

PubMed

Romanelli, A; Esquius, K S; Massone, H E; Escalante, A H

2013-08-01

The assessment of water vulnerability and pollution hazard traditionally places particular emphasis on the study on groundwaters more than on surface waters. Consequently, a GIS-based Lake Pollution Hazard Index (LPHI) was proposed for assessing and mapping the potential pollution hazard for shallow lakes due to the interaction between the Potential Pollutant Load and the Lake Vulnerability. It includes easily measurable and commonly used parameters: land cover, terrain slope and direction, and soil media. Three shallow lake ecosystems of the southeastern Pampa Plain (Argentina) were chosen to test the usefulness and applicability of this suggested index. Moreover, anthropogenic and natural medium influence on biophysical parameters in these three ecosystems was examined. The evaluation of the LPHI map shows for La Brava and Los Padres lakes the highest pollution hazard (≈30 % with high to very high category) while Nahuel Rucá Lake seems to be the less hazardous water body (just 9.33 % with high LPHI). The increase in LPHI value is attributed to a different loading of pollutants governed by land cover category and/or the exposure to high slopes and influence of slope direction. Dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand values indicate a moderately polluted and eutrophized condition of shallow lake waters, mainly related to moderate agricultural activities and/or cattle production. Obtained information by means of LPHI calculation result useful to perform a local diagnosis of the potential pollution hazard to a freshwater ecosystem in order to implement basic guidelines to improve lake sustainability.

Landslide inventories: The essential part of seismic landslide hazard analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, E.L.; Keefer, D.K.; Sato, H.P.; Yagi, H.

2011-01-01

A detailed and accurate landslide inventory is an essential part of seismic landslide hazard analysis. An ideal inventory would cover the entire area affected by an earthquake and include all of the landslides that are possible to detect down to sizes of 1-5. m in length. The landslides must also be located accurately and mapped as polygons depicting their true shapes. Such mapped landslide distributions can then be used to perform seismic landslide hazard analysis and other quantitative analyses. Detailed inventory maps of landslide triggered by earthquakes began in the early 1960s with the use of aerial photography. In recent years, advances in technology have resulted in the accessibility of satellite imagery with sufficiently high resolution to identify and map all but the smallest of landslides triggered by a seismic event. With this ability to view any area of the globe, we can acquire imagery for any earthquake that triggers significant numbers of landslides. However, a common problem of incomplete coverage of the full distributions of landslides has emerged along with the advent of high resolution satellite imagery. ?? 2010.

Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cao, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Frankel, A.D.

2005-01-01

In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.

Map and database of Quaternary faults in Venezuela and its offshore regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Audemard, F.A.; Machette, M.N.; Cox, J.W.; Dart, R.L.; Haller, K.M.

2000-01-01

As part of the International Lithosphere Program’s “World Map of Major Active Faults,” the U.S. Geological Survey is assisting in the compilation of a series of digital maps of Quaternary faults and folds in Western Hemisphere countries. The maps show the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features such as faults and fault-related folds. They are accompanied by databases that describe these features and document current information on their activity in the Quaternary. The project is a key part of the Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program (ILP Project II-0) for the International Decade for Natural Hazard Disaster Reduction.The project is sponsored by the International Lithosphere Program and funded by the USGS’s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. The primary elements of the project are general supervision and interpretation of geologic/tectonic information, data compilation and entry for fault catalog, database design and management, and digitization and manipulation of data in †ARCINFO. For the compilation of data, we engaged experts in Quaternary faulting, neotectonics, paleoseismology, and seismology.

Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2006-08-01

A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

The use of mapped geology as a predictor of radon potential in Norway.

PubMed

Watson, Robin J; Smethurst, Mark A; Ganerød, Guri V; Finne, Ingvild; Rudjord, Anne Liv

2017-01-01

Radon exposure is considered to cause several hundred fatalities from lung-cancer each year in Norway. A national map identifying areas which are likely to be exposed to elevated radon concentrations would be a useful tool for decision-making authorities, and would be particularly important in areas where only few indoor radon measurements exist. An earlier Norwegian study (Smethurst et al. 2008) produced radon hazard maps by examining the relationship between airborne gamma-ray spectrometry, bedrock and drift geology, and indoor radon. The study was limited to the Oslo region where substantial indoor radon and airborne equivalent uranium datasets were available, and did not attempt to test the statistical significance of relationships, or to quantify the confidence of its predictions. While it can be anticipated that airborne measurements may have useful predictive power for indoor radon, airborne measurement coverage in Norway is at present sparse; to provide national coverage of radon hazard estimates, a good understanding of the relationship between geology and indoor radon is therefore important. In this work we use a new enlarged (n = 34,563) form of the indoor radon dataset with national coverage, and we use it to examine the relationship between geology and indoor radon concentrations. We use this relationship to characterise geological classes by their radon potential, and we produce a national radon hazard map which includes confidence limits on the likelihood of areas having elevated radon concentrations, and which covers the whole of mainland Norway, even areas where little or no indoor radon data are available. We find that bedrock and drift geology classes can account for around 40% of the total observed variation in radon potential. We test geology-based predictions of RP (radon potential) against locally-derived estimates of RP, and produce classification matrices with kappa values in the range 0.37-0.56. Our classifier has high predictive value but suffers from low sensitivities for radon affected areas. We investigate an alternative classification method based on a Naïve Bayes classifier which results in similar overall performance. The work forms part of an ongoing study which will eventually incorporate airborne equivalent uranium data, as and when new airborne data become available. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water over diverging deltaic regions. This results in a set of high resolution hazard maps of flood inundation depth at 30 arc-second ( 1 km at the equator) resolution. Together with many other updates and new features, the resulting flood hazard maps will be used in the next generation of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer.

Stereo-vision-based terrain mapping for off-road autonomous navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-05-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as nogo regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-01-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Geologic map of the Grand Junction Quadrangle, Mesa County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Robert B.; Carrara, Paul E.; Hood, William C.; Murray, Kyle E.

2002-01-01

This 1:24,000-scale geologic map of the Grand Junction 7.5' quadrangle, in support of the USGS Western Colorado I-70 Corridor Cooperative Geologic Mapping Project, provides new interpretations of the stratigraphy, structure, and geologic hazards in the area of the junction of the Colorado River and the Gunnison River. Bedrock strata include the Upper Cretaceous Mancos Shale through the Lower Jurassic Wingate Sandstone units. Below the Mancos Shale, which floors the Grand Valley, the Upper and Lower(?)Cretaceous Dakota Formation and the Lower Cretaceous Burro Canyon Formation hold up much of the resistant northeast- dipping monocline along the northeast side of the Uncompahgre uplift. The impressive sequence of Jurassic strata below include the Brushy Basin, Salt Wash, and Tidwell Members of the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation, the Middle Jurassic Wanakah Formation and informal 'board beds' unit and Slick Rock Member of the Entrada Formation, and the Lower Jurassic Kayenta Formation and Wingate Sandstone. The Upper Triassic Chinle Formation and Early Proterozoic meta-igneous gneiss and migmatitic meta- sedimentary rocks, which are exposed in the Colorado National Monument quadrangle to the west, do not crop out here. The monoclinal dip slope of the northeastern margin of the Uncompahgre uplift is apparently a Laramide structural feature. Unlike the southwest-dipping, high-angle reverse faults in the Proterozoic basement and s-shaped fault- propagation folds in the overlying strata found in the Colorado National Monument 7.5' quadrangle along the front of the uplift to the west, the monocline in the map area is unbroken except at two localities. One locality displays a small asymmetrical graben that drops strata to the southwest. This faulted character of the structure dies out to the northwest into an asymmetric fault-propagation fold that also drops strata to the southwest. Probably both parts of this structure are underlain by a northeast-dipping high-angle reverse fault. The other locality displays a second similar asymmetric fold. No evidence of post-Laramide tilting or uplift exists here, but the antecedent Unaweep Canyon, only 30 km to the south-southwest of the map area, provides clear evidence of Late Cenozoic, if not Pleistocene, uplift. The major geologic hazards in the area include large landslides associated with the dip-slope-underlain, smectite-rich Brushy Basin Member of the Morrison Formation and overlying Dakota and Burro Canyon Formations. Active landslides affect the southern bank of the Colorado River where undercutting by the river and smectitic clays in the Mancos trigger landslides. The Wanakah, Morrison, and Dakota Formations and the Mancos Shale create a significant hazard to houses and other structures by containing expansive smectitic clay. In addition to seasonal spring floods associated with the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers, a serious flash flood hazard associated with sudden summer thunderstorms threatens the intermittent washes that drain the dip slope of the monocline.

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

2013-01-01

scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

2011-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

Publications - PDF 95-33E | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

content DGGS PDF 95-33E Publication Details Title: Geologic hazards map of the Charley River D-1, C-1, and part of the B-1 quadrangles, east-central Alaska Authors: Pinney, D.S., Clough, J.G., Reifenstuhl, R.R ., Reifenstuhl, R.R., and Liss, S.A., 1995, Geologic hazards map of the Charley River D-1, C-1, and part of the B

Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

1996-01-01

An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Geo hazard studies and their policy implications in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

Nicaragua, situated at the Central American Subduction zone and placed in the trajectory of tropical storms and hurricanes, is a frequent showplace of natural disasters which have multiplied the negative effects of a long term socioeconomic crisis leaving Nicaragua currently as the second poorest country of the Americas. In the last years, multiple efforts were undertaken to prevent or mitigate the affectation of the natural phenomena to the country. National and local authorities have become more involved in disaster prevention policy and international cooperation boosted funding for disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the country. The National Geosciences Institution (INETER) in cooperation with foreign partners developed a national monitoring and early warning system on geological and hydro-meteorological phenomena. Geological and risk mapping projects were conducted by INETER and international partners. Universities, NGO´s, International Technical Assistance, and foreign scientific groups cooperated to capacitate Nicaraguan geoscientists and to improve higher education on disaster prevention up to the master degree. Funded by a World Bank loan, coordinated by the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) and scientifically supervised by INETER, multidisciplinary hazard and vulnerability studies were carried out between 2003 and 2005 with emphasis on seismic hazard. These GIS based works provided proposals for land use policies on a local level in 30 municipalities and seismic vulnerability and risk information for each single building in Managua, Capital of Nicaragua. Another large multidisciplinary project produced high resolution air photos, elaborated 1:50,000 vectorized topographic maps, and a digital elevation model for Western Nicaragua. These data, integrated in GIS, were used to assess: 1) Seismic Hazard for Metropolitan Managua; 2) Tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast; 3) Volcano hazard for Telica-Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes; and 4) Flood hazard map of Maravilla river. This study was realized between 2004 and 2006, through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The results of the mapping and investigations are fed in a National GIS on Geohazards maintained by INETER and developed in the frame of a regional cooperation project with BGR, Germany, and other international institutions. Many maps, project reports and GIS coverage are made available on INETER´s Website to the general public. (www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/geofisica.html ).

Cartographic Design in Flood Risk Mapping - A Challenge for Communication and Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, S.; Serrhini, K.; Dorner, W.

2009-12-01

In order to mitigate flood hazards and to minimise associated losses, technical protection measures have been additionally and increasingly supplemented by non-technical mitigation, i.e. land-use planning activities. This is commonly done by creating maps which indicate such areas by different cartographic symbols, such as colour, size, shape, and typography. Hazard and risk mapping is the accepted procedure when communicating potential threats to stakeholders, and is therefore required in the European Member States in order to meet the demands of the European Flood Risk Directive. However, available information is sparse concerning the impact of such maps on different stakeholders, i.e., specialists in flood risk management, politicians, and affected citizens. The lack of information stems from a traditional approach to map production which does not take into account specific end-user needs. In order to overcome this information shortage the current study used a circular approach such that feed-back mechanisms originating from different perception patterns of the end user would be considered. Different sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to different groups of test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented communication of cartographic information. Therefore, the method of eye tracking was applied using a video-oculography technique. This resulted in a suggestion for a map template which fulfils the requirement to serve as an efficient communication tool for specialists and practitioners in hazard and risk mapping as well as for laypersons. Taking the results of this study will enable public authorities who are responsible for flood mitigation to (1) improve their flood risk maps, (2) enhance flood risk awareness, and therefore (3) create more disaster-resilient communities.

Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

2017-09-01

The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Constantinescu, Robert; Biass, Sébastien; Tonini, Roberto

2014-02-01

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.

Building a flood hazard map due to magma effusion into the caldera lake of the Baekdusan Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Kim, S.; Yun, S.; Yu, S.; Kim, I.

2013-12-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently and the volcanic ash may spread up to the northeastern of Japan. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. Floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Volcanic flood may cause significant hydrologic hazards for this reason. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the uplift of lake bottom due to magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by the past record from other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model (Flo-2D) runs to simulate channel routing downstream. The final goal of the study stresses the potential flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability. he study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Effusion rate, Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Uplift, Flood hazard map Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. Inundation map triggered by magma effusion simulated by Flo-2D

Map and database of Quaternary faults and folds in Colombia and its offshore regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paris, Gabriel; Machette, Michael N.; Dart, Richard L.; Haller, Kathleen M.

2000-01-01

As part of the International Lithosphere Program’s “World Map of Major Active Faults,” the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is assisting in the compilation of a series of digital maps of Quaternary faults and folds in Western Hemisphere countries. The maps show the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features such as faults and fault-related folds. They are accompanied by databases that describe these features and document current information on their activity in the Quaternary. Top date, the project has published fault and fold maps for Costa Rica (Montero and others, 1998), Panama (Cowan and others, 1998), Venezuela (Audemard and others, 2000), Bolovia/Chile (Lavenu, and others, 2000), and Argentina (Costa and others, 2000). The project is a key part of the Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program (ILP Project II-0) for the International Decade for Natural Hazard Disaster Reduction.

Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

2009-01-01

There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

Flood Hazard Assessment of the coastal lowland in the Kujukuri Plain of Chiba Prefecture, Japan, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CHEN, Huali; Tokunaga, Tomochika; Ito, Yuka; Sawamukai, Marie

2014-05-01

Floods, the most common natural disaster in the world, cause serious loss of life and economic damage. Flood is one of the disasters in the coastal lowland along the Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan. Many natural and human activities have changed the surface environment of the Plain. These include agricultural development, urban and industrial development, change of the drainage patterns of the land surface, deposition and/or erosion of the river valleys, and so on. In addition, wide spread occurrence of land subsidence has been caused by the abstraction of natural gas dissolved in groundwater. The locations of the groundwater extraction include nearby the coast, and it may increase the flood risk. Hence, it is very important to evaluate flood hazard by taking into account the temporal change of land elevation caused by land subsidence, and to develop hazard maps for protecting surface environment and land-use planning. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides methodology and techniques for analyzing complex decision problems, which often involve incommensurable data or criteria. Also, Geographical Information System (GIS) is the powerful tool since it manages large amount of spatial data involved in MCDA. The purpose of this study is to present a flood hazard model using MCDA techniques with GIS support in a region where primary data are scare. The model incorporates six parameters: river system, topography, land-use, flood control project, passing flood from coast, and precipitation. Main data sources used are 10 meter resolution topography data, airborne laser scanning data, leveling data, Landsat-TM data, two 1:30,000 scale river watershed map, and precipitation data from precipitation observation stations around the study area. River system map was created by merging the river order, the line density, and the river sink point density layers. Land-use data were derived from Landsat-TM images. A final hazard map for 2004, as an example, was obtained using an algorithm that combines factors in weighted linear combinations. The assignment of the weight/rank values and their analysis were realized by the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This study is the preliminary work to investigate the flood hazard at the Kujukuri Plain. Flood hazard map of the other years will be analyzed to investigate the temporal change of the flood hazard area, and more data will be collected and added to improve the assessment.

Surficial Geologic Map of the Worcester North-Oxford- Wrentham-Attleboro Nine-Quadrangle Area in South- Central Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Byron D.; Stone, Janet R.; DiGiacomo-Cohen, Mary L.

2008-01-01

The surficial geologic map layer shows the distribution of nonlithified earth materials at land surface in an area of nine 7.5-minute quadrangles (417 mi2 total) in south-central Massachusetts (fig. 1). Across Massachusetts, these materials range from a few feet to more than 500 ft in thickness. They overlie bedrock, which crops out in upland hills and in resistant ledges in valley areas. The geologic map differentiates surficial materials of Quaternary age on the basis of their lithologic characteristics (such as grain size and sedimentary structures), constructional geomorphic features, stratigraphic relationships, and age. Surficial materials also are known in engineering classifications as unconsolidated soils, which include coarse-grained soils, fine-grained soils, or organic fine-grained soils. Surficial materials underlie and are the parent materials of modern pedogenic soils, which have developed in them at the land surface. Surficial earth materials significantly affect human use of the land, and an accurate description of their distribution is particularly important for water resources, construction aggregate resources, earth-surface hazards assessments, and land-use decisions. The mapped distribution of surficial materials that lie between the land surface and the bedrock surface is based on detailed geologic mapping of 7.5-minute topographic quadrangles, produced as part of an earlier (1938-1982) cooperative statewide mapping program between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Department of Public Works (now Massachusetts Highway Department) (Page, 1967; Stone, 1982). Each published geologic map presents a detailed description of local geologic map units, the genesis of the deposits, and age correlations among units. Previously unpublished field compilation maps exist on paper or mylar sheets and these have been digitally rendered for the present map compilation. Regional summaries based on the Massachusetts surficial geologic mapping studies discuss the ages of multiple glaciations, the nature of glaciofluvial, glaciolacustrine, and glaciomarine deposits, and the processes of ice advance and retreat across Massachusetts (Koteff and Pessl, 1981; papers in Larson and Stone, 1982; Oldale and Barlow, 1986; Stone and Borns, 1986; Warren and Stone, 1986). This compilation of surficial geologic materials is an interim product that defines the areas of exposed bedrock and the boundaries between glacial till, glacial stratified deposits, and overlying postglacial deposits. This work is part of a comprehensive study to produce a statewide digital map of the surficial geology at a 1:24,000-scale level of accuracy. This surficial geologic map layer covering nine quadrangles revises previous digital surficial geologic maps (Stone and others, 1993; MassGIS, 1999) that were compiled on base maps at regional scales of 1:125,000 and 1:250,000. The purpose of this study is to provide fundamental geologic data for the evaluation of natural resources, hazards, and land information within the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Frankel, Arthur D.

2014-01-01

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope

2015-01-01

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.

(abstract) Survey of Volcanic Hazards in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrams, M.; Siebe, C.; Macias, J.

1997-01-01

A substantial percentage of the world's population lives in areas vulnerable to the negative effects of future volcanic activity. This is especially true in Mexico, where within the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) one half of the country's 90 million inhabitants live. The TMVB is a 1 000 by 200 km area, dotted with hundreds of volcanoes and volcanic centers. Most of the area has been poorly studied, and the volcanic history is largely unknown. Our approach is to combine interpretations of satellite images, field work and mapping, laboratory analysis, and age dating to elucidate the volcanic history and evaluate the potential eruptive hazards. Hazards evaluations are done in the form of risk maps.

RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s), or the ERPG-2 concentration for atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances).

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Belknap County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle DTM...Agriculture Imag- ery Program (NAIP) color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data...found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map accuracy. NH GRANIT is

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Coos County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Technical Partner DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle...color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data, E911 data, Digital Elevation...the feature types found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map

Development of direct multi-hazard susceptibility assessment method for post-earthquake reconstruction planning in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrouli, Olga; Rana, Sohel; van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Jianqiang

2017-04-01

After the devastating 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, reconstruction activities have been delayed considerably, due to many reasons, of a political, organizational and technical nature. Due to the widespread occurrence of co-seismic landslides, and the expectation that these may be aggravated or re-activated in future years during the intense monsoon periods, there is a need to evaluate for thousands of sites whether these are suited for reconstruction. In this evaluation multi-hazards, such as rockfall, landslides, debris flow, and flashfloods should be taken into account. The application of indirect knowledge-based, data-driven or physically-based approaches is not suitable due to several reasons. Physically-based models generally require a large number of parameters, for which data is not available. Data-driven, statistical methods, depend on historical information, which is less useful after the occurrence of a major event, such as an earthquake. Besides, they would lead to unacceptable levels of generalization, as the analysis is done based on rather general causal factor maps. The same holds for indirect knowledge-driven methods. However, location-specific hazards analysis is required using a simple method that can be used by many people at the local level. In this research, a direct scientific method was developed where local level technical people can easily and quickly assess the post-earthquake multi hazards following a decision tree approach, using an app on a smartphone or tablet. The methods assumes that a central organization, such as the Department of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management, generates spatial information beforehand that is used in the direct assessment at a certain location. Pre-earthquake, co-seismic and post-seismic landslide inventories are generated through the interpretation of Google Earth multi-temporal images, using anaglyph methods. Spatial data, such as Digital Elevation Models, land cover maps, and geological maps are used in a GIS to generate Terrain Units in a semi-automated manner, which are further edited using stereo-image interpretation. Source areas for rockfall and debris flows are outlined from the factor maps, and historical inventory, and regional scale empirical runout models are used to define areas that might be affected. This data is then used in the field in an application that guides the user through the decision tree by asking a number of questions, which can be answered by using the existing data, and by direct field observations. The method was applied in a part of Rasuwa district, which was seriously affected by co-seismic and post-seismic mass movements, leading to the evacuation of a number of village, and temporary closure of a number of hydropower construction projects.

Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.

Flood Risk in Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas: An Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, F.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

The town of Motozintla de Mendoza (15o 22' N and 92o 15' W) is located southern Chiapas, Mexico, and it is highly exposed to flood hazards. This community has suffered the impact of two disaster events due to this natural hazard in less than ten years, the first one in 1998 and the second one in 2005. The objective of this research is to assess the level of flood risk in the community of Motozintla. The methodology consisted of four steps: (1) Identification of the level of flood hazard; (2) Vulnerability assessment considering weighted variables according to their level of incidence on the local risk conditions; (3) Preparation of risk matrices for each area exposed to floods; and 4) Cartographic representation and spatial analysis of the results. We obtained a Geographical Information System (GIS) map for each group of analyzed vulnerabilities (structural, public services, socio-economic, existing plans in case of contingencies, and risk perception) and one map associated to global vulnerability (overposing of all estimated vulnerabilities). These maps demonstrates that the local conditions of structural vulnerability have a high incidence in the generation of risk, differing from the lack of public basic services, which although unfavorable for the population, it is not a deciding factor for preserving life or housing. Another interesting result is that the lack of preparation of the community to face a disaster generates a higher risk level than the other analyzed socioeconomic conditions. The global vulnerability allowed us to determine with greater detail the flood risk levels in the community. Our results indicate that the area in Motozintla with the highest level of flood risk is located in the margins of the Xelajú river, particularly the region that was flooded in 2005, which is precisely the area where the rivers Xelajú, Allende and La Mina meet and the river flow increases. Unfortunately, the northeasters part of this zone had been populated by people that was relocated by the local government due to past flooding events. For these reasons, it is necessary to make urgent decisions for disaster mitigation measures based on results from scientific research and models for territorial planning.

Structure and data consistency of a GIS database for geological risk analysis in S. Miguel Island (Azores)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queiroz, G.; Goulart, C.; Gaspar, J. L.; Gomes, A.; Resendes, J. P.; Marques, R.; Gonçalves, P.; Silveira, D.; Valadão, P.

2003-04-01

The Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are becoming a major tool in the domain of geological hazard assessment and risk mitigation. When available, hazard and vulnerability data can easily be represented in a GIS and a great diversity of risk maps can be produced following the implementation of specific predicting models. A major difficulty for those that deal with GIS is to obtain high quality, well geo-referenced and validated data. This situation is particularly evident in the scope of risk analysis due to the diversity of data that need to be considered. In order to develop a coherent database for the geological risk analysis of the Azores archipelago it was decided to use the digital maps edited in 2001 by the Instituto Geográfico do Exército de Portugal (scale 1:25000), comprising altimetry, urban areas, roads and streams network. For the particular case of S. Miguel Island the information contained in these layers was revised and rectifications were made whenever needed. Moreover basic additional layers were added to the system, including counties and parishes administrative limits, agriculture and forested areas. For detailed studies all the edifices (e.g. houses, public buildings, monuments) are being individualized and characterized taking in account several parameters that can become crucial to assess their direct vulnerability to geological hazards (e.g. type of construction, number of floors, roof stability). Geological data obtained (1) through the interpretation of historical documents, (2) during recent fieldwork campaigns (e.g. mapping of volcanic centres and associated deposits, faults, dikes, soil degassing anomalies, landslides) and (3) by the existent monitoring networks (e.g. seismic, geodetic, fluid geochemistry) are also being digitised. The acquisition, storage and maintenance of all this information following the same criteria of quality are critical to guarantee the accuracy and consistency of the GIS database through time. In this work we notice the GIS-based methodologies aimed to assure the development of a GIS database directed to the geological risk analysis in S. Miguel Island. In a long-term programme the same strategy is being extended to the other Azorean islands.

Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

2014-01-01

The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

2018-05-01

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto; Mondini, Alessandro Cesare; Cardinali, Mauro; Fiorucci, Federica; Santangelo, Michele; Chang, Kang-Tsung

2012-04-01

Landslides are present in all continents, and play an important role in the evolution of landscapes. They also represent a serious hazard in many areas of the world. Despite their importance, we estimate that landslide maps cover less than 1% of the slopes in the landmasses, and systematic information on the type, abundance, and distribution of landslides is lacking. Preparing landslide maps is important to document the extent of landslide phenomena in a region, to investigate the distribution, types, pattern, recurrence and statistics of slope failures, to determine landslide susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability and risk, and to study the evolution of landscapes dominated by mass-wasting processes. Conventional methods for the production of landslide maps rely chiefly on the visual interpretation of stereoscopic aerial photography, aided by field surveys. These methods are time consuming and resource intensive. New and emerging techniques based on satellite, airborne, and terrestrial remote sensing technologies, promise to facilitate the production of landslide maps, reducing the time and resources required for their compilation and systematic update. In this work, we first outline the principles for landslide mapping, and we review the conventional methods for the preparation of landslide maps, including geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventories. Next, we examine recent and new technologies for landslide mapping, considering (i) the exploitation of very-high resolution digital elevation models to analyze surface morphology, (ii) the visual interpretation and semi-automatic analysis of different types of satellite images, including panchromatic, multispectral, and synthetic aperture radar images, and (iii) tools that facilitate landslide field mapping. Next, we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the new remote sensing data and technology for the production of geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventory maps. We conclude by arguing that the new tools will help to improve the quality of landslide maps, with positive effects on all derivative products and analyses, including erosion studies and landscape modeling, susceptibility and hazard assessments, and risk evaluations.

The Handling of Hazard Data on a National Scale: A Case Study from the British Geological Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royse, Katherine R.

2011-11-01

This paper reviews how hazard data and geological map data have been combined by the British Geological Survey (BGS) to produce a set of GIS-based national-scale hazard susceptibility maps for the UK. This work has been carried out over the last 9 years and as such reflects the combined outputs of a large number of researchers at BGS. The paper details the inception of these datasets from the development of the seamless digital geological map in 2001 through to the deterministic 2D hazard models produced today. These datasets currently include landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential and potentially harmful elements in soil. These models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and from outside bodies such as the Health Protection Agency), national databases (which contain data collected over the past 175 years), multi-criteria analysis within geographical information systems and a flexible rule-based approach for each individual geohazard. By using GIS in this way, it has been possible to model the distribution and degree of geohazards across the whole of Britain.

Vulnerability Assessment Using LIDAR Data in Silang-Sta Rosa Subwatershed, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragais, M. A.; Magcale-Macandog, D. B.; Arizapa, J. L.; Manalo, K. M.

2016-10-01

Silang-Sta. Rosa Subwatershed is experiencing rapid urbanization. Its downstream area is already urbanized and the development is moving fast upstream. With the rapid land conversion of pervious to impervious areas and increase frequency of intense rainfall events, the downstream of the watershed is at risk of flood hazard. The widely used freeware HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System) model was used to implement the 2D unsteady flow analysis to develop a flood hazard map. The LiDAR derived digital elevation model (DEM) with 1m resolution provided detailed terrain that is vital for producing reliable flood extent map that can be used for early warning system. With the detailed information from the simulation like areas to be flooded, the predicted depth and duration, we can now provide specific flood forecasting and mitigation plan even at community level. The methodology of using 2D unsteady flow modelling and high resolution DEM in a watershed can be replicated to other neighbouring watersheds specially those areas that are not yet urbanized so that their development will be guided to be flood hazard resilient. LGUs all over the country will benefit from having a high resolution flood hazard map.

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Geoethical and socio-political aspects of seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, quantification and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Seismic hazard and, more recently, tsunami hazard assessments have been undertaken in several countries of the world and globally for the whole Earth planet with the aim of providing a scientifically sound basis to the engineers, technicians, urban and industrial planners, politicians, civil protection operators and in general to the authorities for devising rational risk mitigation strategies and corresponding adequate policies. The main point of this presentation is that the chief-value of all seismic and tsunami hazard studies (including theory, concept, quantification and mapping) resides in the social and political values of the provided products, which is a standpoint entailing a number of relevant geoethical implications. The most relevant implication regards geoscientists who are the subjects mainly involved in carrying out hazard evaluations. Viewed from the classical perspective, the main ethical obligations of geoscientists are restricted to performing hazard estimations in the best possible way from a scientific point of view, which means selecting the "best" available data, adopting sound theoretical models, making use of rigorous methods… What is outlined here, is that this is an insufficient minimalistic position, since it overlooks the basic socio-political and therefore practical value of the hazard-analysis final products. In other words, if one views hazard assessment as a production process leading from data and theories (raw data and production means) to hazard maps (products), the criterion to judge whether it is good or bad needs also to include the usability factor. Seismic and tsunami hazard reports and maps are products that should be usable, which means that they should meet user needs and requirements, and therefore they should be evaluated according to how much they are clearly understandable to, and appropriate for, making-decision users. In the traditional view of a science serving the society, one could represent the interaction process as a line connecting geoscientists and users, where geoscientists possess the knowledge (data, theory and models) and teach, while users get products and learn. The new geoethical perspective is that the line is replaced by a loop, where geoscientists and users interact cyclically: 1) where theory and methods themselves are not determined a-priori, but they result also in response of geoscientists-users interactions, and 2) where user needs can be modified ex-post in response to geoscientists elaborations. These two-way feedback actions, opening also the path to close interdisciplinary approaches involving geo- and social sciences, are the main challenge for the present generation of geoscientists. Unfortunately they are not properly and adequately reflected in the today university educational systems, and in professional societies.

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerstenberger, Matt; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucy

2004-01-01

We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

2012-04-01

Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using empirical equations. Another information source was local knowledge, as people could give a rough estimation of concentration time by describing flood evolution. Finally, hydraulic modelling of the flooded areas in the urban perimeter was performed using the USACE HEC-RAS® software capabilities. A specific challenge at this stage was field morphology, as the flooded areas form large alluvial fans, with very different flood behaviour compared to flood plains. Model "calibration" at this stage was undertaken using the mapped water surfaces and depths. Great care was taken for field geometry design, where field observations, measured cross sections and field images were used to improve the existing DTM data. The model included protection dikes already built by local authorities in their flood-fight effort. Because of flash-flood specific behaviour, only maximal flooded surfaces and flow velocities were simulated through steady flow analysis in HEC-RAS. The discharge estimates obtained for the chosen event were comparable to 10-year return periods as estimated by the watershed authorities. Times of concentration correspond to this previous estimation and to local people descriptions. The modelled water surfaces reflect field reality. Flash-flood modelling demands extensive knowledge of the studied field in order to compensate data scarcity. However, more precise data, like radar rainfall estimates available in Morocco, would definitely improve outputs. In this perspective, better data access at the local level and good use of the available methods could benefit the disaster risk reduction effort as a whole.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Hazards on Hazards, Ensuring Spacecraft Safety While Sampling Asteroid Surface Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. A.; DellaGiustina, D. N.

2016-12-01

The near-Earth object Bennu is a carbonaceous asteroid that is a remnant from the earliest stages of the solar-system formation. It is also a potentially hazardous asteroid with a relatively high probability of impacting Earth late in the 22nd century. While the primary focus of the NASA funded OSIRIS-REx mission is the return of pristine organic material from the asteroid's surface, information about Bennu's physical and chemical properties gleaned throughout operations will be critical for a possible future impact mitigation mission. In order to ensure a regolith sample can be successfully acquired, the sample site and surrounding area must be thoroughly assessed for any potential hazards to the spacecraft. The OSIRIS-REx Image Processing Working Group has been tasked with generating global and site-specific hazard maps using mosaics and a trio of fea­­­ture identification techniques. These techniques include expert-lead manual classification, internet-based amateur classification using the citizen science platform CosmoQuest, and automated classification using machine learning and computer vision tools. Because proximity operations around Bennu do not begin until the end of 2018, we have an opportunity to test t­­­he performance of our software on analogue surfaces of other asteroids from previous NASA and other space agencies missions. The entire pipeline from image processing and mosaicking to hazard identification, analysis and mapping will be performed on asteroids of varying size, shape and surface morphology. As a result, upon arrival at Bennu, we will have the software and processes in place to quickly and confidently produce the hazard maps needed to ensure the success of our mission.

Detecting Spatial Patterns of Natural Hazards from the Wikipedia Knowledge Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J.; Stewart, K.

2015-07-01

The Wikipedia database is a data source of immense richness and variety. Included in this database are thousands of geotagged articles, including, for example, almost real-time updates on current and historic natural hazards. This includes usercontributed information about the location of natural hazards, the extent of the disasters, and many details relating to response, impact, and recovery. In this research, a computational framework is proposed to detect spatial patterns of natural hazards from the Wikipedia database by combining topic modeling methods with spatial analysis techniques. The computation is performed on the Neon Cluster, a high performance-computing cluster at the University of Iowa. This work uses wildfires as the exemplar hazard, but this framework is easily generalizable to other types of hazards, such as hurricanes or flooding. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) modeling is first employed to train the entire English Wikipedia dump, transforming the database dump into a 500-dimension topic model. Over 230,000 geo-tagged articles are then extracted from the Wikipedia database, spatially covering the contiguous United States. The geo-tagged articles are converted into an LDA topic space based on the topic model, with each article being represented as a weighted multidimension topic vector. By treating each article's topic vector as an observed point in geographic space, a probability surface is calculated for each of the topics. In this work, Wikipedia articles about wildfires are extracted from the Wikipedia database, forming a wildfire corpus and creating a basis for the topic vector analysis. The spatial distribution of wildfire outbreaks in the US is estimated by calculating the weighted sum of the topic probability surfaces using a map algebra approach, and mapped using GIS. To provide an evaluation of the approach, the estimation is compared to wildfire hazard potential maps created by the USDA Forest service.

California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Database and online map service on unstable rock slopes in Norway - From data perpetuation to public information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppikofer, Thierry; Nordahl, Bobo; Bunkholt, Halvor; Nicolaisen, Magnus; Jarna, Alexandra; Iversen, Sverre; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Böhme, Martina; Yugsi Molina, Freddy X.

2015-11-01

The unstable rock slope database is developed and maintained by the Geological Survey of Norway as part of the systematic mapping of unstable rock slopes in Norway. This mapping aims to detect catastrophic rock slope failures before they occur. More than 250 unstable slopes with post-glacial deformation are detected up to now. The main aims of the unstable rock slope database are (1) to serve as a national archive for unstable rock slopes in Norway; (2) to serve for data collection and storage during field mapping; (3) to provide decision-makers with hazard zones and other necessary information on unstable rock slopes for land-use planning and mitigation; and (4) to inform the public through an online map service. The database is organized hierarchically with a main point for each unstable rock slope to which several feature classes and tables are linked. This main point feature class includes several general attributes of the unstable rock slopes, such as site name, general and geological descriptions, executed works, recommendations, technical parameters (volume, lithology, mechanism and others), displacement rates, possible consequences, as well as hazard and risk classification. Feature classes and tables linked to the main feature class include different scenarios of an unstable rock slope, field observation points, sampling points for dating, displacement measurement stations, lineaments, unstable areas, run-out areas, areas affected by secondary effects, along with tables for hazard and risk classification and URL links to further documentation and references. The database on unstable rock slopes in Norway will be publicly consultable through an online map service. Factsheets with key information on unstable rock slopes can be automatically generated and downloaded for each site. Areas of possible rock avalanche run-out and their secondary effects displayed in the online map service, along with hazard and risk assessments, will become important tools for land-use planning. The present database will further evolve in the coming years as the systematic mapping progresses and as available techniques and tools evolve.

Application of a time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, A. M.; Del Gaudio, V.; Capolongo, D.; Khamehchiyan, M.; Mahdavifar, M. R.

2009-04-01

Iran is a country located in a tectonic active belt and is prone to earthquake and related phenomena. In the recent years, several earthquakes caused many fatalities and damages to facilities, e.g. the Manjil (1990), Avaj (2002), Bam (2003) and Firuzabad-e-Kojur (2004) earthquakes. These earthquakes generated many landslides. For instance, catastrophic landslides triggered by the Manjil Earthquake (Ms = 7.7) in 1990 buried the village of Fatalak, killed more than 130 peoples and cut many important road and other lifelines, resulting in major economic disruption. In general, earthquakes in Iran have been concentrated in two major zones with different seismicity characteristics: one is the region of Alborz and Central Iran and the other is the Zagros Orogenic Belt. Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose a time probabilistic approach for earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (2003), has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis of hazard estimates. This method consists in evaluating the recurrence of seismically induced slope failure conditions inferred from the Newmark's model. First, by adopting Arias Intensity to quantify seismic shaking and using different Arias attenuation relations for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros regions, well-established methods of seismic hazard assessment, based on the Cornell (1968) method, were employed to obtain the occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 year). Then, following Jibson (1998), empirical formulae specifically developed for Alborz - Central Iran and Zagros, were used to represent, according to the Newmark's model, the relation linking Newmark's displacement Dn to Arias intensity Ia and to slope critical acceleration ac. These formulae were employed to evaluate the slope critical acceleration (Ac)x for which a prefixed probability exists that seismic shaking would result in a Dn value equal to a threshold x whose exceedence would cause landslide triggering. The obtained ac values represent the minimum slope resistance required to keep the probability of seismic-landslide triggering within the prefixed value. In particular we calculated the spatial distribution of (Ac)x for x thresholds of 10 and 2 cm in order to represent triggering conditions for coherent slides (e.g., slumps, block slides, slow earth flows) and disrupted slides (e.g., rock falls, rock slides, rock avalanches), respectively. Then we produced a probabilistic national map that shows the spatial distribution of (Ac)10 and (Ac)2, for a 10% probability of exceedence in 50 year, which is a significant level of hazard equal to that commonly used for building codes. The spatial distribution of the calculated (Ac)xvalues can be compared with the in situ actual ac values of specific slopes to estimate whether these slopes have a significant probability of failing under seismic action in the future. As example of possible application of this kind of time probabilistic map to hazard estimates, we compared the values obtained for the Manjil region with a GIS map providing spatial distribution of estimated ac values in the same region. The spatial distribution of slopes characterized by ac < (Ac)10 was then compared with the spatial distribution of the major landslides of coherent type triggered by the Manjil earthquake. This comparison provides indications on potential, problems and limits of the experimented approach for the study area. References Cornell, C.A., 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606. Del Gaudio V., Wasowski J., & Pierri P., 2003: An approach to time probabilistic evaluation of seismically-induced landslide hazard. Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 557-569. Jibson, R.W., E.L. Harp and J.A. Michael, 1998: A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps: an example from the Los Angeles, California, area, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-113, Golden, Colorado, 17 pp.

Evaluation of subsidence hazard in mantled karst setting: a case study from Val d'Orléans (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, Jérôme; Cartannaz, Charles; Noury, Gildas; Vanoudheusden, Emilie

2015-04-01

Soil subsidence/collapse is a major geohazard occurring in karst region. It occurs as suffosion or dropout sinkholes developing in the soft cover. Less frequently it corresponds to a breakdown of karst void ceiling (i.e., collapse sinkhole). This hazard can cause significant engineering challenges. Therefore decision-makers require the elaboration of methodologies for reliable predictions of such hazards (e.g., karst subsidence susceptibility and hazards maps, early-warning monitoring systems). A methodological framework was developed to evaluate relevant conditioning factors favouring subsidence (Perrin et al. submitted) and then to combine these factors to produce karst subsidence susceptibility maps. This approach was applied to a mantled karst area south of Paris (Val d'Orléans). Results show the significant roles of the overburden lithology (presence/absence of low-permeability layer) and of the karst aquifer piezometric surface position within the overburden. In parallel, an experimental site has been setup to improve the understanding of key processes leading to subsidence/collapse and includes piezometers for measurements of water levels and physico-chemical parameters in both the alluvial and karst aquifers as well as surface deformation monitoring. Results should help in designing monitoring systems to anticipate occurrence of subsidence/collapse. Perrin J., Cartannaz C., Noury G., Vanoudheusden E. 2015. A multicriteria approach to karst subsidence hazard mapping supported by Weights-of-Evidence analysis. Submitted to Engineering Geology.

Integration of social dimension in an index oriented methodology for consequence analysis of natural hazards: application to the Upper Guil Catchment (Southern French Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Puissant, Anne; Dujarric, Constance

2017-04-01

Vulnerability assessment together with hazard exposure is generally accepted as the two main steps of risk analysis. If quantitative methods to estimate hazard exposure are now well-defined, it is not the case regarding vulnerability assessment. Vulnerability is a complex concept involving a variety of disciplines from physical and socio-economic sciences (i.e. engineering, economics, social and health sciences etc.). Currently, two opposite trends exist: the 'physical' approach in which vulnerability is analysed as potential impacts (i.e. structural and functional) on the elements at risk (building, network, land cover); and the 'social' approach in which vulnerability is a combination of socio-economic variables determining people's ability to anticipate before a catastrophic event, to react during it, and to recover after it. For a complete analysis of vulnerability it is essential to combine these two approaches but in reality few works exists. The objective of this research is to improve the Potential Damage Index (PDI), detailed in Puissant el al. (2013), originally developed to assess physical injury, structural and functional consequences of landslide hazard, by including socio-economic characteristics of population information. Data from the French Census data (INSEE, 2012) and a survey on risk perception (100 questionnaires obtained between 2014 and 2015/16) were used to propose an overall index taking into account the three main phases of risk management: preparedness, crisis management and recovery. This new index called Global Potential Damage Index (GPDI) is applied on the Upper Guil Catchment to assess potential torrential floods hazard in the context of the French funded project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change Context). Results of the PDI are compared with the GPDI and show significant differences. GPDI scores mapping are lower than PDI scores indicating that resilient population may qualify results obtained for physical consequences. In GPDI the social and institutional component is expressed by a unique value applied for the overall stakes of a same community. Consequently, socio-economics differences between Upper Guil catchments communities are highlighted and make results easily understandable for local manager.

Advancing the citizen scientist's contributions to documenting and understanding natural hazards: a proof of concept for linking crowdsourced and remotely sensed data on landslide hazards in El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, E. R.; Griffin, R.; Markert, K. N.

2017-12-01

Scientists, practitioners, policymakers, and citizen groups, share a role in ensuring "that all sectors have access to, understand and can use scientific information for better informed decision-making" (Sendai Framework 2015-2030). When it comes to understanding hazards and exposure, inventories on disaster events are often limited. Thus, there are many opportunities for citizen scientists to engage in improving the collective understanding—and ultimately reduction—of disaster risk. Landslides are very difficult to forecast on spatial and temporal scales meaningful for early warning and evacuation. Heuristic hazard mapping methods are very common in regional hazard zonation and rely on expert knowledge of previous events and local conditions, but they often lack a temporal component. As new data analysis packages are becoming more open and accessible, probabilistic approaches that consider high resolution spatial and temporal dimensions are becoming more common, but this is only possible when rich inventories of landslide events exist. The work presented offers a proof of concept on incorporating crowd-sourced data to improve landslide hazard model performance. Starting with a national inventory of 90 catalogued landslides in El Salvador for a study period of 1998 to 2011, we simulate the addition of over 600 additional crowd-sourced landslide events that would have been identified through human interpretation of high resolution imagery in the Google Earth time slider feature. There is a noticeable improvement in performance statistics between static heuristic hazard models and probabilistic models that incorporate the events identified by the "crowd." Such a dynamic incorporation of crowd-sourced data on hazard events is not so far-fetched. Given the engagement of "local observers" in El Salvador who augment in situ hydro-meteorological measurements, the growing access to Earth observation data to the lay person, and immense interest behind connecting citizen scientists to remote sensing data through hackathons such as the NASA Space Apps Challenges, we envision a much more dynamic, collective understanding of landslide hazards. Here we present a better scenario of what we could have known had data from the crowd been incorporated into probabilistic hazard models on a regular basis.

A Software Tool for Quantitative Seismicity Analysis - ZMAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiemer, S.; Gerstenberger, M.

2001-12-01

Earthquake catalogs are probably the most basic product of seismology, and remain arguably the most useful for tectonic studies. Modern seismograph networks can locate up to 100,000 earthquakes annually, providing a continuous and sometime overwhelming stream of data. ZMAP is a set of tools driven by a graphical user interface (GUI), designed to help seismologists analyze catalog data. ZMAP is primarily a research tool suited to the evaluation of catalog quality and to addressing specific hypotheses; however, it can also be useful in routine network operations. Examples of ZMAP features include catalog quality assessment (artifacts, completeness, explosion contamination), interactive data exploration, mapping transients in seismicity (rate changes, b-values, p-values), fractal dimension analysis and stress tensor inversions. Roughly 100 scientists worldwide have used the software at least occasionally. About 30 peer-reviewed publications have made use of ZMAP. ZMAP code is open source, written in the commercial software language Matlab by the Mathworks, a widely used software in the natural sciences. ZMAP was first published in 1994, and has continued to grow over the past 7 years. Recently, we released ZMAP v.6. The poster will introduce the features of ZMAP. We will specifically focus on ZMAP features related to time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment. We are currently implementing a ZMAP based system that computes probabilistic hazard maps, which combine the stationary background hazard as well as aftershock and foreshock hazard into a comprehensive time dependent probabilistic hazard map. These maps will be displayed in near real time on the Internet. This poster is also intended as a forum for ZMAP users to provide feedback and discuss the future of ZMAP.

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

System Mapping to Promote Resilient Decision-Making in Port Communities

EPA Science Inventory

Port communities are particularly vulnerable to environmental hazards including: extreme weather, toxic air pollution, hazardous materials storage and transport, and operational and accidental environmental emissions from industry. Following the Panama Canal expansion, port expa...